Podcasts about Monetarism

The Financial Exchange Show

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 23, 2023 41:47

Ed Nelson is a senior advisor in the Monetary Affairs Division of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Ed has also previously been a professor of economics at the University of Sydney and has worked at the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank as well as the Bank of England. Most importantly, however, Ed was also a former student of, and co-author with, the late Bennett McCallum, and he rejoins David for this special live episode of Macro Musings to talk about Bennett McCallum's life, his work, and his legacy within the field of monetary economics. Check out the entirety of the Bennett McCallum Monetary Policy Conference! Transcript for this week's episode. Ed's website Ed's Federal Reserve profile David Beckworth's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch!

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How markets respond to stunning jobs report

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 6, 2023 38:39

Mike Armstrong and Marc Fandetti react to the stunning September jobs report. Rates are jumping on Wall Street. What will it do to housing and the economy? Monetarism is back. It may not last. Some on Wall Street predict bad times because of an unprecendented drop in money supply. Exxon Mobil closing in on megadeal with shale driller Pioneer. How the big chip makers are pushing back on Biden's China plan. China is becoming a no-go zone for executives.

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Why monetarism is common sense

New Money Review podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 4, 2023 32:26

In the latest episode of the New Money Review podcast I'm delighted to welcome Tim Congdon, an economist and leading advocate of monetarism.After a successful career in the City, Tim became founder and chair of the Institute of International Monetary Research at the University of Buckingham.I've followed his work for over three decades. In the early 1990s, when I was working as a bond fund manager, the UK's central bank was keeping interest rates at over 10% in an attempt to make sterling shadow the deutsche mark.Tim forecast that UK interest rates would soon fall from double figures, based on sluggish money supply growth that, in his view, meant a recession was coming.In the end, the Bank of England had to abandon its exchange rate target, sterling rates fell sharply and—as I had followed Tim's advice rather than the consensus view—my fixed income clients did very well.Now we seem to be repeating the same, or at least a similar story. Listen to the podcast for more. In this episode, we discuss:Why Congdon became a monetaristHow money supply figures gave advanced warning of inflation in early 2020Why central bankers' interest-rate-only macroeconomics is wrongWhy we should assess central bankers' performance against money supply targetsWhy quantitative easing was necessary in 2008/09Why low money supply growth now presages a recessionWhy we will soon see falling interest ratesWhy the basic principles of monetarism are common senseHow money supply targeting could help dampen boom/bust cyclesWhy CBDCs could affect the way we measure money

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Back To The Falklands, Monetarism's Meltdown, A New Eurozone Crisis

Multipolarity

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 29, 2023 53:38

The Chinese are backing the Argentinian claims to the Falklands, with hot anti-colonialist rhetoric. With America still neutral, is Britain heading towards a Suez two-point oh moment? And perhaps more importantly: have we reached a sinister new milestone in the multipolar era – where old colonial grievances become brand new proxy wars?Back in Britain, the Bank of England are looking to re-bottle the inflation genie with another big rate hike. Are they being too aggressive? When it comes to destroying the British economy, do they just need to finish the job the government started? Finally, for decades Germans have lived by the schwarze null: the so-called Black Zero of a balanced budget. Meanwhile, the likes of Italy lived by the red billion. With interest rates spiking, and a new kind of Eurozone crisis brewing, are we about to see the continuation of what is effectively a culture war across the beer/wine line?

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The Working Group with Ruth Richardson, Bernard Hickey and Damien Grant

The Working Group - NZâ€™s Best Weekly Political Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later May 30, 2023 60:54

You read that right, the architect of neoliberalism on the show tonight with the best Public Economist in NZ and that awful Damien Grant who said such mean things about Chippy in the weekend! Folks, it's going to be a big show. Issue 1 – Has Orr capitulated to the market and shown the limits of Monetarism? Issue 2 – Latest TVNZ Poll – should National just give up now? Issue 3 – Labour Party Conference – Chippy with a side of chips – carb overload or pass the tomato sauce? and Issue 4 – The latest Allan Hall revelations – are we locking up innocent people in NZ prisons? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Peter Stella & Joseph Wang on Debt Death Spirals, Monetarism, and The Fiscal Theory Of The Price Level

Forward Guidance

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 3, 2023 77:21

Peter Stella, Former Head of the IMF Central Banking Division, joins Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed and author at Fedguy.com, and Jack Farley for a wide-ranging discussion on: -what really causes inflation -monetarism, fiscal theory of the price level, and modern monetary theory (MMT) -the unrealized losses on the Fed's balance sheet -why yield curve control likely won't be necessary (or so Peter argues) -the longer the duration of a governments' debt, the less inflation is required to inflate it away -when a central bank incurs unrealized losses, who “wins” and who “loses”? Filmed on March 29, 2023. ____ Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Joseph Wang's writings: https://fedguy.com/ Joseph's latest piece, “Ameridollars”: https://fedguy.com/ameridollars/ Peter Stella on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Stellar_Consult Peter Stella's work: https://www.centralbankarchaeology.com/ “Do Central Banks Need Capital?” by Peter Stella: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2016/12/30/Do-Central-Banks-Need-Capital-2260 Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 ____ Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ ____ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can't-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos ____ Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:15) Peter Stella's Background At The International Monetary Fund (IMF) (03:55) Joseph Wang On The Flaws Of Monetarism (05:52) Milton Friedman: It's The Government That Prints Money (07:56) The Fiscal Theory Of The Price Level (13:38) Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) (24:12) Real Value Of U.S. Debt Is Lower Now Than March 2020 (37:33) Permissionless (38:38) The Fed Has Huge Unrealized Losses On Its Balance Sheet (45:29) Details About The Fed's Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Purchases In 2020 (51:51) Did The Fed Help Wealthy Homeowners Refinance Their Mortgages In 2020? (54:21) Blockworks Research Plug (55:22) When The Federal Reserve Has Unrealied Losses On Its Balance Sheets, Who Loses and Who Gains? (01:13:50) Joseph Wang's Summary Of This Conversation (01:15:08) Yield Curve Control and Potential Debt Death Spiral ____ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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Garett Jones - Immigration, National IQ, & Less Democracy

The Lunar Society

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 24, 2023 74:01

Garett Jones is an economist at George Mason University and the author of The Cultural Transplant, Hive Mind, and 10% Less Democracy.This episode was fun and interesting throughout!He explains:* Why national IQ matters* How migrants bring their values to their new countries* Why we should have less democracy* How the Chinese are an unstoppable global force for free marketsWatch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Timestamps(00:00:00) - Intro(00:01:08) - Migrants Change Countries with Culture or Votes?(00:09:15) - Impact of Immigrants on Markets & Corruption(00:12:02) - 50% Open Borders?(00:16:54) - Chinese are Unstoppable Capitalists (00:21:39) - Innovation & Immigrants (00:24:53) - Open Borders for Migrants Equivalent to Americans?(00:28:54) - Let's Ignore Side Effects?(00:30:25) - Are Poor Countries Stuck?(00:32:26) - How Can Effective Altruists Increase National IQ(00:39:13) - Clone a million John von Neumann?(00:44:39) - Genetic Selection for IQ(00:47:02) - Democracy, Fed, FDA, & Presidential Power(00:49:42) - EU is a force for good?(00:55:12) - Why is America More Libertarian Than Median Voter?(00:56:19) - Is Ethnic Conflict a Short Run Problem?(00:59:38) - Bond Holder Democracy(01:04:57) - Mormonism(01:08:52) - Garett Jones's Immigration System(01:10:12) - Interviewing SBFTranscriptThis transcript was autogenerated and thus may contain errors.[00:00:41] Dwarkesh Patel: Okay. Today I have the pleasure of speaking with Garrett Jones, who is an economist at George Mason University. . He's most recently the author of the Cultural Trans. How migrants make the economies. They move to a lot like the ones they left, but he's also the author of 10% Less Democracy and Hive Mind. We'll get into all three of those books. Garrett, welcome to the podcast. [00:01:06] Garett Jones: Glad to be here.Thanks for having me.[00:01:08] Migrants Change Countries with Culture or Votes?[00:01:08] Garett Jones: Um, [00:01:09] Dwarkesh Patel: first question is, isn't the cultural transplant still a continuation of your argument against democracy? Because the isn't one of the reasons we care about the values of migrants, the fact that we eliminate democracy. So should review this book as part of your critique against democracy rather than against migration specifically.[00:01:27] Garett Jones: Um, well, I do think that, uh, governments and productivity are shaped by the citizens in a nation in, in almost any event. Um, I think that even as we've seen recently in China, even in a very strong authoritarian dictatorship, which some would call totalitarian, even there, the government has to listen to the masses.So the government can only get so far away from the masses on average, even in, uh, an autocracy. If you had [00:01:57] Dwarkesh Patel: to split apart the contribution though, um, the, the impact of migrants on, let's say the culture versus the impact that migrants have on a country by voting in their political system, um, uh, how, how would you split that apart?Is, is the, is mainly the impact we, the cultural impact we see for migration due to the ability of migrants to vote or because they're just influencing the culture just by being [00:02:19] Garett Jones: there? I'll cheat a little bit because we don't get to run experiments on this, so I just have to kind of guess, uh, make an informed guess.I, I'm gonna call it 50 50. Um, so the way people, uh, the way citizens influence a country through formal democracy is important. Uh, but citizens end up placing some kind of limits on the government anyway. And the people in the country are the, they're the folks who are gonna work in the firms and be able to either establish or not establish.Those complicated networks of exchange that are crucial to high productivity. . ,[00:02:52] Mean vs Elite IQ[00:02:52] Dwarkesh Patel: I wanna linger on hive mind a little bit before we talk about the cultural transplant. Um, if you had to guess, does, do the benefits of National IQ come from having a right tail of elites that is smarter or is it from not having that strong of a left tail of people who are, you know, lower productivity, more like markedly to commit crimes and things like that?In other words? Uh, yeah, go ahead. [00:03:14] Garett Jones: Yeah. Yeah. I, I think, uh, the upper tail is gonna matter more than the lower tail, um, in, in the normal range of variation. Uh, and I think part of that is because, uh, nations, at least moderately prosperous nations have found tools for basically reducing the influence of the least informed voters.And for. Uh, basically being able to keep productivity up even when there are folks who are sort of disrupting the whole process. Um, you know, the, the, the risks of crime from the lower end is basically like a probabilistic risk. It's not like it's, it's not like some, uh, zero to one switch or anything. So we're talking about something probabilistic.And I think that, uh, it's the, the median versus the elite is the, is the contrast that I find more interesting. Um, uh, median voter theorem, you know, normal, the way we often think about democracy says that the median should be matter more for determining productivity and for shaping institutions. Um, and I tend to think that that's more important in democracies for sure.So when we look at countries, if you just look at a scatter plot, just look at the raw data of a scatter plot. If you look at the few countries that are exceptions to the rule, where the mean is the mean, IQ is the best predictor of productivity compared to elite iq. Um, . The exceptions are non democracies and South Africa.So you see a few, uh, places in the Gulf where there are large migrant communities who are exceptionally well educated, exceptionally cognitively talented. Um, and that's associated with high productivity. Those are a couple of Gulf states. It's probably cutter, the UAE might be Bahrain in there, I'm not sure.Um, and then you've got South Africa. Those are the, those are the countries where the average test score, it doesn't have to be iq, it could be just Pisa, Tim's type stuff. Um, those are the exceptions to the rule that the average iq, the mean IQ is the best predictor of national productivity. [00:05:14] Dwarkesh Patel: Hmm. Uh, interesting.Um, does that imply the fact that the, um, at least in certain contexts, the elite IQ matters more than the left tail. Does that imply that we should want a greater deviation of IQ in a country? That you could just push a button and increase that deviation? Would that be good? [00:05:33] Garett Jones: No. No, I don't think so. Uh oh.If you could just increase the deviation, um, holding the mean constant. Yeah. Yeah. I think so. In the normal range of variation. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So, mm-hmm. , um, is it, and I think that it has more effects. It, no, it's people at the top who are, um, tend to be coming up with, uh, the big breakthroughs, the big scientific breakthroughs, the big intellectual breakthroughs that end up spilling over to the whole world.Basically the, the positive externalities of innovation. This is a very, almost Pollyanna-ish, uh, Paul Roamer new endogenous, new, uh, new growth theory thing, right? Which is the innovations of the elite, a swamp, uh, the negatives of the low skilled among. , [00:06:14] Dwarkesh Patel: can we just apply this line of reasoning to low skilled immigration as well?Then that maybe the average goes down, the average IQ of your country goes down if the, if you just let in, you know, millions of low skilled immigration immigrants, and maybe there's some cultural effects to that too. But, you know, you're also going to the, that the elite IQ will still be preserved and more elites will come in through the borders, along with the low scale migrants.So then, you know, since we're caring about the devi deviation anyways, uh, more immigration might increase the deviation. Uh, and then, you know, the, we just, uh, that's a good [00:06:46] Garett Jones: thing. So notice what you did there is you, you did something that didn't just, uh, increase the variance. You simultaneously increase the variance and lowered the mean Yeah.Yeah. And median, right? And so I think that, uh, hurting the mean and median is actually a big cost, especially in democracies. And so that is very likely to swamp, uh, the benefits of, um, the small, the small probability of getting. Hire elite folks in as part of a low-skilled immigration policy. Mm-hmm. , so pulling down the mean or the median is that that's a, that's that swamps that swamps the benefits of increasing variants there.Yeah. Yes. [00:07:26] Dwarkesh Patel: But if you get rid of their migrant's ability to vote, and I guess you can't do that, but let assume you could do that. Yeah. What exactly is, like, what is the exec mechanism by which the, the, the cultural values or the lower median is impacting the elite's ability to produce these valuable externalities?You know, like there's a standard compared to advantage story that, you know, they'll, they'll do the housework and the cooking for the elites and they can do the more productive [00:07:52] Garett Jones: Yeah. Taking all the institutions as given, which is what a lot of open borders optimists do. They take institutions as given they take cultural norms as given.Um, all that micro stuff works out just fine. I'm totally, I'm totally on board with all that sort of Adam Smith division of labor. Blah, blah, blah. Um, but, institutions are downstream of culture and, uh, cultural norms will be changing partly because of what I call spaghetti theory, right?We meet in the middle when new folks come to a country. There's some kind of convergence, some part where people meet in the middle, um, between the, the values, uh, that were previously existing and the values that have shown up, uh, that migrants have brought with them. So, you know, like I I call it spaghetti theory because, um, when Italians moved to America, that got Americans eating more spaghetti, right?And if you just did a simple assimilation analysis, you'd say, wow, everybody in America eats the same now, like the burgers and spaghetti. So look, the Italians assimilated, but migrants assimilate us. Um, uh, native Americans certainly changed in response to the movement of Europeans. Um, English Americans certainly changed in response to the migration of German and Irish Americans.So this meeting in the middle is something that happens all the time, and not just through Democratic channels, just through the sort of soft contact of cultural norms that sociologists and social psychologists would understand. [00:09:15] Impact of Immigrants on Markets & Corruption[00:09:15] Garett Jones: Um, no, I'm sure you saw the book that was released, I think in 2020 titled, uh, retro Refuse, uh, where they showed, uh, slight positive relationship between, uh, immigration and, you know, pro-market, uh, laws.[00:09:27] Dwarkesh Patel: And I guess the idea behind that is there's selection effects in terms of who would come to a country like America in [00:09:32] Garett Jones: the first place. Well, they never ran the statistical analysis that would be most useful. I think they said that. Uh, so this is Powell and Na Roth Day. Yeah. They ran a statistical analysis that said, and they said, in all of the statistical analysis we've ever run, we've never found negative relationship between low-skilled migration, any measure of it, and changes in economic freedom.And, um, I actually borrowed another one of Powell's data sets, and I thought, well, how would I check this theory out? The idea that changes in migration have an effect on economic freedom? And I just used the normal economist tool. I thought about how do economists check to see if changes in money, changes in the money supply, change the price level.That's what we call the quantity theory, right? Mm-hmm. , the way you do that is on the x-axis. You, you show the change in the money supply On the y axis, you show the change in prices, right? This Milton Friedman's idea. Money's always everywhere. Yeah. Inflation's always neverwhere Montessori phenomenon. So that's what I did.Uh, I did this with a, with a, um, a student. Uh, we co-authored a paper doing this. And the very first statistical analysis we ran, we looked at migrants who came from countries that were substantially more, uh, corrupt than the country's average. And we looked at the, the different, the relationship between cha, an increase in migrants from corrupt countries, and subsequent changes in economic freedom.Every single statistical analysis we found had a negative relationship. , we ran the simplest estimate you could run. Right? Change on change. Change in one thing, predicts change in another. They somehow never got around to running that very simple statistical analysis. CH one change predicts another change.Hmm. We found negative relationships every time. Sometimes statistically significant, sometimes not always negative. Somehow they never found that. I just don't know how . But [00:11:21] Dwarkesh Patel: what about the anecdotal evidence that in the US for example, the, in the periods of the greatest expansion of the welfare state or of governed power during the New Deal or great society, the levels of foreign-born people were at like historical lows.Uh, is that just a coincidence or what, what do you think of? I'm [00:11:38] Garett Jones: not really interested in, uh, migration per se. Right. My story is never that, like migration per se, does this bad thing. Migrants are bad. That's never my story, right? Mm-hmm. , as you know, right? Yeah. Yeah. So my story is that migrants bring, uh, cultural values from their old country to their new country.And sometimes those cultural norms are better than what you've got, and sometimes they're worse than what you've got. And sometimes it's just up for debate. [00:12:02] 50% Open Borders?[00:12:02] Dwarkesh Patel: So if you had to guess what percentage of the world has cultural values that are equivalent to or better than the average of Americas? [00:12:11] Garett Jones: Uh oh.Equivalent to or better then? Yeah. Uh, I mean, just off the top of my head, maybe 20%. I dunno, 30%. I'll just throw something out there like that. Yeah. So I mean, like for country averages, right? Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Um, [00:12:25] Dwarkesh Patel: currently we probably don't have, uh, it would probably be hard for like 20% of the rest of the world to get into the us.Um, w w would you support some, uh, PO policy that would make it easy for people from those countries specifically to get to the us? Just, uh, have radical immigration liberalization from those places? [00:12:44] Garett Jones: Um, that's really not my comparative advantage to have opinions about that, but like, substantial increases of people who pass multiple tests, like, let's take the low hanging fruit and then move down from there.Right? So people from, uh, countries, uh, that ha um, on average have say higher savings rates, um, higher, uh, education levels. Higher s what I call s a t, deep root scores and, um, countries that are, say half a standard deviation above the US level on all three, [00:13:18] Dwarkesh Patel: right? Why do they have to be higher? Why not just equivalent, like, uh, you get all the gains from trade and plus it can't be, you know, equivalent.So it's, there's no [00:13:27] Garett Jones: trade. Part of the reason is because the entire world depends on US innovation. So we should make America as good as possible, not just slightly better than it is. So very few firms would find that their optimal hiring policy would be hire anyone who's better than your current stock of employees.Would you agree with that? [00:13:42] Dwarkesh Patel: Yeah. But you, uh, have to pay them a salary. If you're just, uh, if it's just somebody just comes to the us, you don't have to like pay them a salary, right? So if somebody is better, that, if somebody's producing more value for a firm than the salary would pay them, I think [00:13:52] Garett Jones: like is is a firm's job to maximize its profits or to just make a little bit more than it's making right?Maximize profits. But yeah, there you go. So you pack, you find the best people you can, you know, sports teams that are hiring don't just say, we wanna hire people who are better than what we got. They say, let's get the best people we can get. Why not get the best? That was Jim Jimmy Carter's, that was Jimmy Carter's, uh, biography.Why not the best. But you, [00:14:16] Dwarkesh Patel: you can do that along with getting people who are, you know, unexpected, uh, terms as good as the existing Americans. Why gives [00:14:24] Garett Jones: y'all like, I don't care what you, why you want this? This seems like crazy, right? What are you talking about? But [00:14:29] Dwarkesh Patel: I, I'm not sure why not the best what the trade out there, huh?No, I'm not saying you don't get the best, but I, I'm saying once you've gotten the best, what is the harm in getting the people who have equivalent s a t scores and, and the rest of the things you [00:14:41] Garett Jones: mentioned. I think part of the reason would be you'd wanna find out, I mean, if you really wanna do something super hardcore, you'd have to find out what's best for the planet as a whole.What's the trade off between, um, Having the very best, uh, most innovative, talented, frugal people in America doing innovating that has benefits for the whole world, versus having an America that's like 40% better, but we're the median's a little bit, the median of skills a little bit lower. Right. Uh, because the median's shaping the productivity of the whole team.Right? Yeah. This is what you, you know what it means when you believe in externalities, right? [00:15:14] Dwarkesh Patel: But if you have somebody who's equivalent by definition, they're not moving the median down. [00:15:19] Garett Jones: That's, you're, you're totally right about that. Yeah. But like, why wouldn't I want the best thing possible? Right. Okay.I'm still trying to figure out why you wouldn't want the best thing possible. You're trying to go, why? I don't want the best thing possible. I'm like, why not? [00:15:31] Dwarkesh Patel: I'm not disagreeing with you. I'm just, I'm a little bit confused about why that that precludes you from also getting the second best thing possible.At the same time you're, because you're not limited to just the best. [00:15:42] Garett Jones: Right. Well, uh, because the second best is going to have a negative externality on the first best. Everything's externalities. This is my worldview, right? Everything's externalities. You bring in the second best, you're like, you're not, that person's gonna make things on average a little worse for the first best person.[00:16:00] Dwarkesh Patel: But it seems like you were explaining earlier that the negative externalities are coming from people from countries with, uh, low s a t scores. And by the way, s a t you can explain what that means just for the audience who's not familiar with how you're using that term. [00:16:11] Garett Jones: Oh yeah. So, um, there, there are three prominent, uh, measures in what's known as the deep roots literature and, uh, that are widely used.Uh, two are s n a, that state history and agricultural history. That's how many thousands of years your ancestors have had experience living under organized states or living unsettled agriculture. And then the T-score is the tech history score. I used the measure from 1500. It's basically what fraction of the world's technology were your ancestors using in 1500 before, uh, Columbus and his expansive conquest ended up upending the entire world.Uh, the world map. So s a and T are all predictors of modern prosperity, but especially when you adjust for migration. [00:16:54] Chinese are Unstoppable Capitalists [00:16:54] Garett Jones: Gotcha. [00:16:55] Dwarkesh Patel: We can come back to this later, but one of the interesting things I think from the book was you have this chapter on China and the Chinese people as a sort of unstoppable force for free market capitalism.Mm-hmm. . Um, and it's interesting, as you mentioned in the book, that China is a poorest majority Chinese country. Um, what do you think explains why China is a poorest, uh, majority Chinese country? Maybe are there like non-linear dynamics here where, uh, if you go from 90 40 to 90% Chinese, there's positive effects, but if you go from 90 to 95% Chinese, there's too much?[00:17:26] Garett Jones: No, I think it's just, I think just communism is dumb and it has terrible, like sometimes decades long effects on institutional quality. I don't really quite understand. So I'd say North Korea, if we had good data on North Korea, North Korea would be even a bigger sort of deep roots outlier than China is.Right? It's like, don't, don't have a communist dictatorship in your country. Seems to be pretty, a robust lesson for a national prosperity. China's still stuck with a sort of crummy version of that mistakes still. North Korea, of course, is stuck with an even worse version. So I think that's, I, my hunch is that that's, you know, the overwhelming issue there.Um, it's, it's something that, it's, it's sort of a China's stuck in an ins. Currently China's stuck in an institutional cul-de-sac and they just don't quite know how to get out of it. And it's, uh, bad for a lot of, for the people who live there. On average, if the other side had won the Chinese Civil War, things would probably be a lot, lot better off in China today.Yeah. [00:18:22] Dwarkesh Patel: Um, but what, what is that suggestion about the deep roots literature? If the three biggest countries in the world, China, India, and America, Um, it, it, it under predicts their performance, or sorry, in the case of China and India, it, uh, it, it over predicts their performance. And in the case of America, it under predicts maybe the, how, how reliable is this if like the three biggest countries in the world are not, uh, adequately accounted for?[00:18:45] Garett Jones: Uh, well, you know, communism's a really big mistake. I, I think that's totally accounted for right there. Um, I think India's underperformance isn't that huge. Um, the US is a miracle along many ways. Um, it's, we should draw our lessons from the typical country, and I think, uh, population weighted estimates, I don't think that basically one third of the knowledge about the wealth of nations comes from the current GDP per capita of China, India, and the us, right?I think much less than one third of the story of the wealth of nations comes from those three. And, uh, again, in, in all three cases though, if you look at the economic trajectories of all three of those people, oh, all three of those countries, uh, they're all, uh, China and India growing faster than you'd expect.And also, I wanna point out. This is the most important point actually. Um, when we look at, uh, when Kaplan made this claim, right? Brian Kaplan has made this claim, right? Yeah. That the SATs, that the ancestry scores, the deep root scores don't predict, um, the prosperity of, uh, the, the low performance of Indian China.He only checked the S and the A and the s a T scores. Okay. Which letter did he not predict? Which letter did he never test out? He never tested the T. What do you think happens when he tests the T? Does it predict, uh, China [00:20:02] Dwarkesh Patel: and India and America, [00:20:03] Garett Jones: Hey, start, they t goes back to being statistically significant again, UhhuhSo with T, which we've always known is the best of the deep root scores, somehow Kaplan never managed to measure that one. Just as Powell Naste never managed to run the simplest test change in, uh, migrant corruption versus change in economic institutions somehow, like the simplest test just never get run.[00:20:26] Dwarkesh Patel: Okay. And then what is the impact if you include t. If you, [00:20:29] Garett Jones: if you, if you look at tea, then, um, then, uh, contrary to what Kaplan says, uh, the deep roots, that deep roots measure is sig statistically significant. [00:20:38] Dwarkesh Patel: Okay. Um, yeah, I, [00:20:40] Garett Jones: interesting. The puzzle goes away, [00:20:42] Dwarkesh Patel: interesting. [00:20:43] Garett Jones: Um, yeah. So somehow these guys just never seem to run like the simple things, the transparent things.I don't know [00:20:49] Dwarkesh Patel: why the, um, the weird, huh? The, the, the one you mentioned from, what was it Nassa, the name of the guy who wrote the Richard at re refuse [00:20:57] Garett Jones: the Yeah, yeah. Powell Naste. [00:20:59] Dwarkesh Patel: Yeah. Yeah. That you said you did the regression on institutional corruption, uh, and from the countries to come from. Is that, was that right?I, [00:21:06] Garett Jones: and so yeah. The, the measure they use, I just took, I took Powell's dataset from another study, and it was the percent. Of it was basically, um, the percentage of your nation's population, the percentage increase in your nation's population from relatively poor or corrupt countries. They had multiple measures, UhhuhSo, and what is on the y axis there? Y axis is change in economic freedom. That's my preferred one. Gotcha. There's also a change in corruption one, which is a noisier indicator. Um, you get much clearer results with change in economic freedom, so. Gotcha, [00:21:38] Dwarkesh Patel: gotcha. [00:21:39] Innovation & Immigrants [00:21:39] Dwarkesh Patel: Um, now does the ideas getting harder to find stuff and great stagnation, does that imply we should be less worried about impinging on the innovation engine in these, uh, countries that people might wanna migrate to?Because worse comes to worst. It's not like there are a whole bunch of great new theories that were gonna come out anyways. [00:21:58] Garett Jones: Uh, no. I think that, I think that it's always good to have great things, um, and new ideas. Yes, new ideas are getting harder to find, but, um, that, but that the awesome ideas that we're still getting are still worth so much.Right. If we're still increasing lifespan a month, a year, uh, for every year of research we're doing, like, that just seems great. Right? A decade that adds a year to life, so, mm-hmm. , just to use a rough, uh, ballpark measure there. But, so we [00:22:25] Dwarkesh Patel: have a lot of these countries where a lot of innovation is happening.So let's say we kept, uh, one or two of them as, you know, immigrate, uh, havens from any potential, uh, downsides, from radical changes. You know, we already had this in the case of Japan or South Korea, there's not that much of migration there. Mm-hmm. . What is, what is a harm in then using the other ones to decrease global poverty by immigration or something like [00:22:48] Garett Jones: that?Well, um, it's obviously better to create a couple of innovation powerhouses, um, rather than none. Right? So obviously that's, that's nice. But instead, I would prefer to have, um, open borders for Iceland if the Open borders advocates are right and open borders. , we'll have no noticeable effect on institutional quality, then it's great to move, , to have our open borders experiment run in a country that's lightly populated, has a lot of open land, and, um, has good institutional quality.And Iceland fits the bill perfectly for that. So we could preserve the institutional innovation skill, uh, the institutional quality of the, the what I call the I seven. Uh, that's, you know, China, Japan, South Korea, the us, Germany, uk, France, and choose any country out of the a hundred, out of the couple of dozen countries that have good institutional quality.Just pick one of the others that aren't one of those seven, pick one that's not an innovation powerhouse and turn that into your open borders, uh, country. Um, you could, uh, if you wanted to get basically Singapore levels of population density in Iceland, that'd be about 300 million people, I think. I think I, that's about what the numbers end up looking like.Something like that. But [00:24:00] Dwarkesh Patel: the, so you can put entire, but, but the value of open borders comes from the fact that you're coming to a country with high conglomerations of talent and capital and other things, which is, uh, not true of Iceland. Right. So isn't the entire [00:24:13] Garett Jones: No, no. I thought the whole point of open borders, that there's institutional quality and there's some exogenous institutions that make that place more productive than other places.Mm-hmm. . And so by move, I, I, that's my version of what I've been exposed to as open borders, the, is that institutions exogenously exist. There's some places have, uh, moderately laissez, fairer institutions in their country and moving a lot more people there will not reduce the productivity of the people who are currently there, and they'll become much more productive.And so, like the institu, you know, the institutional quality's crucial. So, I mean, if you're a real geography guy, you'd be excited about the fact that Iceland is so far, so close to the north. because latitude is a predictor of prosperity. [00:24:53] Open Borders for Migrants Equivalent to Americans?[00:24:53] Dwarkesh Patel: Um, I want to go back to the thing about, well, should we have open border for that 20% of the Popula global world's population that comes from Yeah.Um, equivalent, s a t and other sort of cultural traits as America. Mm-hmm. , because I feel like this is important enough to dwell on it. You know, it seems similar to saying that once picked up a hundred dollars bill on the floor, you wouldn't pick up a $20 bill on the floor cuz you only won the best bill.Uh, the $20 bills is right there. Why not pick it up? Um, [00:25:18] Garett Jones: so what if you have, yeah. What if the $20 bill makes your, turns, your, uh, a hundred dollars bill into like an $80 bill and turns all of your 80 a hundred dollars bills and $80 bills. [00:25:27] Dwarkesh Patel: But is it, aren't your controlling for that by saying that they have equivalent scores along all those cultural tests that you're.[00:25:34] Garett Jones: No, because, um, the median, so, so take the simple version of my story, which is the median of the population ends up shaping the productivity of everybody in the country. Right? Or the mean, right? The mean skill level ends up shaping the productivity of the entire population. Right? So that means we end up, I mean, I, I try not to math this up.I don't wanna math this up for the, you know, in a popular book, but it means we face a trade off between being small, a small country with super awesome, uh, positive externalities for all the workers by just selecting the best people. And every time we lower the average skill level in the country, we're lowering the average productivity of everyone else we're creating.We didn't, [00:26:11] Dwarkesh Patel: what? We didn't lower it. So you have to have skills that are lower compared to, than the median of a median American. You, [00:26:18] Garett Jones: so this is, this is a c Paraba story, right? Like if you could suppose the US is at 80 now on a zero to a hundred scale, right? Just, just saying it's 80. Yeah. Yeah. And you have a choice between being hundred and being 99.if you're at 99, the 99 is making, all compared to the world of average of a hundred, the world of an average 99 is making, reducing the productivity of all those hundreds. Okay. So if we chose 90, we're reducing the productivity of all those hundreds. [00:26:48] Dwarkesh Patel: Yes. Okay. So let's say we admit all the smartest people in the world, and that gets us from 80 to 85.That's a new, that's a new media in America. Yeah. At that point. And, but this is because we've admitted a whole bunch of like 90 nines that have just increased our average. Yeah, yeah. Um, at that point, open borders for everybody who's ever been 85, [00:27:08] Garett Jones: like I, this is, this is, ends up being a math problem. It's a little hard to solve on a podcast, right?Because it's the, it's the question of do I want a smaller country with super high average productivity? Or a bigger country with lower average productivity. And by average productivity, I don't just mean, uh, uh, a compositional effect. I mean negative external, I mean relatively fewer positive externalities.So I'll use the term relatively fewer positive externalities rather than negative externalities, right? So like, I don't exactly know where this is. Trade off's gonna pan out, but, um, there is a case for a sort of Manhattan when people talk about a Manhattan project, right? They're talking about putting all like a small number of the smartest people in a room.And part of the reason you don't want like the 20th, smartest person in the room. Cause, cuz that person's gonna ruin the ruin stuff for our, for the other smart people. I, it's amazing how your worldview changes when you see everybody as an external. I, [00:28:02] Dwarkesh Patel: I'm kind of confused about this because just having, at some point you're gonna run outta the smartest people, the remainder of the smartest people in the world.If you've admitted all the brilliant people. Yeah. And given how big the US population is to begin with, you're not gonna change the median that much by doing that. Right. So it's, it's almost a global end to just having more births from the average American. Like if, if the average American just had more kids, the population would still grow.Mm-hmm. and the relative effect of the brightest people might dilute a little bit. Um, but I I, [00:28:33] Garett Jones: and that maybe that's a huge tragedy. We don't know without a bunch of extra math and a bunch of weird assumptions. We don't know. So like I'm, there's a point at which I have to say like, I don't know. Right. Okay.Yeah. Uh, yeah. Is diluting the power of the smartest person in America, like keeping us from having wondrous miracles all around us all the time? I mean, probably not, but. I don't know, [00:28:53] Dwarkesh Patel: but, [00:28:54] Let's Ignore Side Effects?[00:28:54] Dwarkesh Patel: but I guess the sort of the meta question you can ask about this entire debate is, listen, there's so much literature here and it's hard to tell what exactly will happen.You know, it's possible that culture will become worse. It's possible, it'll become better. It's possible to stay the same, given the fact that there's this ambiguity. Why not just do the thing that on the first order of effect seems good? And, you know, just like moving somebody who's like in a poor country to a rich country, first order effect seems good.I don't know how the third and fourth order effect shapes out. Let's just, you know, let's just do the simple obvious thing. [00:29:22] Garett Jones: I, I thought that the, one of the great ideas of economics is that we have to worry about secondary and tertiary consequences. Right? [00:29:28] Dwarkesh Patel: But if, if we, if we can't even figure out what they are exactly, why not just do the thing that at the first order seems, uh, good.[00:29:35] Garett Jones: Um, because if you have a compelling reason to think that the, uh, direction of strength of the second and third and fourth order things are negative and the variances are really wide, then you're just adding a lot more uncertainty to your outcomes. So, And adding uncertainty or outcomes that has sizable negative tail, especially for the whole planet.Isn't that great? Go ahead and run your experiments in Iceland. Let's run that for 50 years and see what happens. It's weird how everybody's obsessed with it running the experiment in America, right? Why not running in Iceland first? Because America's [00:30:05] Dwarkesh Patel: got a great, a lot of great institutions right there.We can check and see what [00:30:08] Garett Jones: Iceland Iceland's a great place too. Um, and I use Iceland as a metaphor, right? Like it's, people are obsessed with running it in America. Like there's some kind of need. I don't know why. So let's try in France. Um, let's try, let's try Northern Ireland. , [00:30:24] Dwarkesh Patel: uh, are,[00:30:25] Are Poor Countries Stuck?[00:30:25] Dwarkesh Patel: are places with low s a t scores and again, s a t we're not talking about the, uh, in case you're skipping to the timestamp, we're not talking about the college test.Um, the deep roots. [00:30:35] Garett Jones: S a t Exactly. Uh, state history, agricultural history, tech history. [00:30:38] Dwarkesh Patel: Right. Exactly. Are, are those places with, uh, low scores on, um, on that test? Are they stuck there forever? Or, uh, is there something that can be done if you are a country that has had a short or not significant history of, um, technology or agriculture?[00:30:56] Garett Jones: Well, the, I start off the book with this, which I really think that, uh, one thing they could do is, uh, create a welcoming environment for large numbers of Chinese migrants to move there persistently. I don't think that's of course the only thing that could ever work, but I think it's something that's within the range of policy for at least some poor countries.I don't know which ones, but, uh, some poor countries could follow the. Approach that many countries in Southeast Asia followed, which has created an environment that's welcoming, welcoming enough to Chinese migrants. Um, it's the one country in the world with large numbers of high s a t score, uh, with alar, with a high s a T score culture, large population.It's enough of an economic failure, so for at least a little longer that, uh, folks can, might be able to be interested in moving to a poor country with lower s a t scores. In a better world, you can do this with North Korea too, but the population of North Korea isn't big enough to make a big dent in the world, right?Mm-hmm. , uh, China's population is big enough. Yeah. [00:31:54] Dwarkesh Patel: Another thing you're worried have to worry about in those cases though though, is the risk that if you do become successful in that country, there's just gonna be a huge backlash and your resources will. AppD, like what happened famously. [00:32:05] Garett Jones: So in, in Indonesia, right?Yeah. There have been many Oh, yeah, yeah. Times across Southeast Asia where anti-Chinese pogroms have been, um, uh, unfortunately a fact of life. So, yeah. Yeah. [00:32:15] Dwarkesh Patel: Or Indians in Uganda under, uh, IDI. I, I mean, yeah. Yep. Um, yeah. Yeah. Uh, okay. So actually I, I'm curious how you would think about this given the impact of National iq.[00:32:26] How Can Effective Altruists Increase National IQ[00:32:26] Dwarkesh Patel: Um, if you're an effective altruist, what, uh, are you just, uh, handing out iodine tablets, uh, across, across the world? What, what are you doing to increase national [00:32:34] Garett Jones: iq? Yeah. This is places, this is something that I, yes. Uh, finding ways I, this is what I call a, a Flynn cycle. Like I wish, I'm hoping for a world where there are enough public health interventions and probably K through six education interventions.to boost test scores in the world's poorest countries. And I think that ha ends up having, um, uh, a virtuous cycle to it, right? As people get more productive, then they can afford more public health, which makes them more productive, which means they can afford more public health. I think brain health is an important and neglected part of child development.Um, fortunately we've done a fair amount to reduce the amount of environmental lead, um, in a lot of poor countries. That's probably having a good effect right now as we speak in a lot of the world's poorest countries. You're right. Um, iodine, basic childhood nutrition, uh, reliable healthcare, uh, to, you know, prevent the worst kinds of just mild childhood infections that are probably, uh, creating what the, what they, what economists sometimes call health.Things that end up just hurting you in a way that causes, uh, an ill-defined long-term cost. A lot of that's gonna have to show up in the, in the brain. Um, I'm a big fan of the, of the view that part of the Flynn Effect is, uh, basically nutrition and health. Mm-hmm. , uh, Flynn wasn't a huge believer in that, but I think that's, um, certainly important in the poorest countries.Yeah. [00:33:57] Dwarkesh Patel: Um, I, I think Brian showed an open voters that if you look at , the, um, IQ of adoptees from poor countries, um, who go, uh, Sweden is the only country that collects data, but if you get adopted by a parent in, um, uh, Sweden, uh, the, the half the gap between the averages of two countries, half gap, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.Goes away. So, I mean, is one of the ways we can increase global IQ just by moving kids to, uh, countries with good health outcomes that, uh, will nourish their [00:34:27] Garett Jones: intelligence. Well, that's a classic short run versus long run effect, right? So, uh, libertarians and open borders advocates tend to be focused on the short run, static effects.So, um, and so you're right, moving kids from poor countries to richer countries is probably gonna raise their test scores quite a lot. And, uh, then the question is, in over the longer run, are those, uh, lower skilled folks, the folks with lower test scores, uh, going to degrade the institutional quality? of the places they move to, right?So if you close half the gap between the poor country and the rich country, half the gap is still there. Right? And if I'm right, , that IQ has big externalities then, , moving people from a, uh, lower scoring country to a richer scoring country and closing half the IQ gap still means on net you're creating a negative externality in the country the kids are moving to.[00:35:17] Dwarkesh Patel: Um, yeah, yeah. Uh, we can come back to that, but yeah. Yeah. So [00:35:23] Garett Jones: it, it's, it's basically, you just look at the question, is this lowering the mean test scores in your country? And if it's lowering the mean test scores in the long run, it's on average gonna lower institutional quality productivity savings rates, those.Um, it's hard to avoid that. It's hard to avoid that outcome. So, uh, I don't [00:35:38] Dwarkesh Patel: remember the exact figures, but didn't Brian address this in the book, um, in the Open Borders book as well, that you can, even if there's a, the, a national iq, uh, lowers on average, if you're just, uh, if you're still raising the global iq, that, that it's still nets out positive, or am I [00:35:54] Garett Jones: remembering that wrong?Well, that, notice what he's, he, what he does is he attributes, uh, he says there's some productivity that's just in the land, that's just geographic factors. Yeah. So basically being close for, and so that, so basically moving people away from the equator boost productivity substantially. And again, that's, uh, a static result.Um, the reason I, uh, I mentioned that ignores all the I seven stuff that I'm talking about where anything that lowers. Um, level of innovation in the world's most innovative countries has negative costs for the entire planet in the long run, but that's something you'd only see over the course of 20, 30, 50 years.And libertarians and open border advocates are very rarely interested in that kind of [00:36:33] Dwarkesh Patel: timeframe. Is there any evidence about, uh, the impact of migration on innovation specifically? So not on the average institutional quality or on, you know, uh, the, the corruption or whatever, but like, just directly the amount of innovation that happens or maybe the Noble Prizes won or things [00:36:48] Garett Jones: like that?Um, no. I mean, I would presume, I think a lot of us would presume that, uh, the European invasion of North America ended up having, uh, positive effects for global innovation. It's not an invasion that I'm in favor of, but if you wanna talk crudely about Yeah, yeah. Whether migrations had an effect on innovation, uh, you'd probably have to include that as any kind of analysis.[00:37:07] Dwarkesh Patel: Yep. Yep. , do you think that the people who are currently Americans, but , their ancestry, traces back to countries with low s a t scores? I i, is it possible that US GDP per capita would be higher, without that contribution?Or how do you think about that? [00:37:21] Garett Jones: I mean, that it follows from thinking through the fact that we are all externalities positive or negative, right? I don't know what in, in any particular, any one particular country could turn out to be some exciting exception to the rules, some interesting anomaly. Um, but on average, we should presume that the average skill level of voters, the average, uh, traits that we're bringing from, uh, the nations, that the nations of our, of our ancestors are as having an effect on our current productivity for gut ori.So just following through the reasoning, I'd have to say on average, that's most likely. Uh, but it, there could always be exceptions to the rule. [00:37:56] Dwarkesh Patel: I guess we see large disparities in income between different ethnic groups across the world, not just in the United States. Yeah. Doesn't that suggest that some of the gains can be privatized from whatever the cultural or other traits there are? Cuz if these, if over decades and centuries these sorts of, uh, these sorts of gaps continue, [00:38:18] Garett Jones: I don't see why that would follow.Right. Um, [00:38:21] Dwarkesh Patel: uh, if everything is being, if all the externalities are just being averaged out over time, what did you expect that these GA gaps would [00:38:29] Garett Jones: narrow? Well, I mean, I'm being a little rhetorical when I'm saying everything's literally an externality, right. I don't literally believe that's true. Um, for instance, people with higher education levels do actually earn more than people with lower education levels.So that's literally not an externality. Right. So some of these other cultural traits that people are bringing with them from their, um, ancestors, nations of origin, um, could be one or one likely one source of these income differences. I mean, if you think about differences in frugality, uh, differences in personal responsibility, which show up in the surveys, uh, that are persistent across generations, those are likely to have an effect on long run productivity for you, yourself and your family.So, mm-hmm. , let alone the hive mind stuff, where you find that there's a positive relationship between test scores and, and product. [00:39:13] Clone a million John von Neumann?[00:39:13] Garett Jones: There was a [00:39:14] Dwarkesh Patel: blogger who took a look at your 2004 paper about the, um, impact of National IQ on, um, on G uh, G D P. Um, and they calculated, so they were just speculating. Let's say you cloned a million John Mond Nomans, and as assume that John Mond Noman had an IQ of 180, then you could, uh, let me just pull up the exact numbers.You could, um, you could raise the average IQ of the United States by 0.21 points, um, and if it's true that one IQ point contributes 6% to, uh, G increasing G, then this proposal would increase U US GDP by, uh, 1.2, uh, six two 6%. Do you buy these kinds of extrapolations or 1.26%? Yeah. Yeah, because you're only cloning a million, [00:39:58] Garett Jones: Jon.Oh, yeah. Yeah. Okay. So this is about 1 million Jon. Yeah. Yeah, that sounds. I mean, that's the kind of thing where I wouldn't expect it to happen overnight. Right. I tend to think of that, uh, the IQ externalities as being two, three generations. I, I lump it in with what economists call organizational capital.That sounds about right. Yeah. Yeah, yeah. I mean, I, I can't remember where I saw this. I think I, I stumbled across it myself at some point too, so. [00:40:19] Dwarkesh Patel: Yeah. Yeah. Uh, by the way, his name is Avaro Dam Bernard, if you wanna [00:40:22] Garett Jones: find it. Oh, okay. Yes, yes. Okay. Yeah, it's, I mean, in, in, it's in that ballpark, right? It's just this idea that, and, and more importantly, um, a million John Bon Nomans would be a gift to the entire planet, right?Yep. Yep, yep. So, yeah, if you had a, if you had a choice of which country to have the John Vno, the million John Von Nomans, uh, it's probably gonna be one of the I seven maybe there's, maybe there's a, maybe Switzerland would be a good alternative. [00:40:46] Dwarkesh Patel: What is the optimal allocation of intelligence across the country?Because one answer, and I guess this is the default answer in our society, is you just send them where they can get paid the most, because that's a good enough proxy for how much they're contributing. Yeah. And so you have these high glomeration of talent and intelligence in places like Silicon Valley or New York.Um, and, you know, because their contributions there can scale to the rest of the world. This is actually where they're producing the most value. Another is, you know, you actually, you should disperse them throughout the country so that they're helping out communities. They're, you know, teachers in their local community.Um, I think there was, uh, A result. There was an interesting anecdotal evidence that during the Great Depression, the crime in New York went down a ton, and that was because the cops in New York were able to hire the, you know, they had like a hundred applications for every cop they hired. And so they were able to hire the best and the brightest, and there were just a whole bunch of new police tactics and every that were pioneered at the time anyways.So, is the market allocation of intelligence correct? Or do you think there should be more distribution of intelligence across the country? How do you think about that? [00:41:50] Garett Jones: Yeah, I mean, the mar the, the market signals aren't terrible. Uh, but, uh, this is my, my Interpol Roamer kicks in and says, uh, innovation is all about externalities.And there's market failures everywhere when it comes to, in the fields of innovation. Mm-hmm. . And so, you know, I, I personally, I mean, I, I like the idea of finding ways to allocate them to, to stem style, stem style technical fields, and. , we do a fair amount of that, and maybe we do the, maybe the US does a pretty good job of that.I don't have any huge complaints at that, at the, at the crudes 50,000 foot level, um, for the, you know, the fact that people know that there's, uh, status games they can play within academia that are perhaps more satisfying or at least as satisfying as the sort of corporate hierarchy stuff. So, yeah. Yeah. I I You don't want 'em all just, I wouldn't encourage them to solely follow market signals.Right. I'd, I'd encourage them to be more HandsOn and, uh, play a variety of status games because the academic, um, and intellectual status game is worth a lot, both personally and than it leads to positive spillovers for. [00:42:58] Dwarkesh Patel: But how about the geographic distribution? Do you think that it's fine that there's people leave, uh, smart people leave Kentucky and go to San Francisco or, yeah, [00:43:08] Garett Jones: I'm a big glomeration guy.Yeah. I'm, I'm, yeah, I'm a big glomeration guy. Yeah. I mean, the internet makes it easier, but then like, still being close to people's, being in the room's important. Um, there, there's, there's something, uh, both HandsOn and Gerard in here about, like, we need to find role models to imitate, and that's probably important for productivity.[00:43:30] Dwarkesh Patel: Um, are there increasing or decreasing returns to National iq?No, [00:43:38] Garett Jones: I think, um, you know, my findings were that it was all basically log linear. And so log linear looks crudely, like increasing returns. . So yeah, it looks exponential, right? So yeah, there's increasing returns to National iq. Yeah. Are are you? But, but this is, this is a commonplace finding in a sense because so many, uh, like human, all the human capital relationships I'm familiar with end up having something like a log linear form, which is exponential.So why is that? Um, yeah, there's something multiplicative that that's how, what I have, that's all I have to say is like it's something. Somehow this all taps into Adam Smith's pin factory, and we have multiplicative not additive effects when we are increasing brain power.Um, I have, I suspect it does have something to do with, uh, a, a better organization of the division of labor between people, which ends up happening something close to e to, uh, exponential effects on productivity. [00:44:39] Genetic Selection for IQ[00:44:39] Garett Jones: A are, uh, are you a fan of genetic selection for intelligence, uh, as a means of increasing national iq or do you think that's too much playing at the margins if it's voluntary?I mean, people should be able to do what they want and, um, after a couple day decades of experimentation, I think people would end up finding a path to, uh, government subsidies or tax credits or something like that. I think people voluntarily deciding what kind of kids they want to have. is a, a, a good thing.And so by genetic selection, I assume you're meaning at the most elementary level people testing their embryos the way they do now, right? Yeah. So I mean, we, we already do a lot of genetic selection for intelligence. Um, anybody, you know, who's, uh, in their mid thirties or beyond who's had amniocentesis, they've been doing a form of genetic selection for intelligence.So it's a widespread practice already in our culture. Um, and, uh, welcoming that in a voluntary way is probably going to have good effects for our future. What [00:45:40] Dwarkesh Patel: do you make of the fact that G B T three, or I think it was Chad g p t, had, uh, measured IQ of 85? Yeah, [00:45:47] Garett Jones: I've seen a few different measures of this, right?You might have seen multiple measures. Um, yeah, I think it's, I think it's a sign that basically, and, and when you see people using non IQ tests to sort of assess the outputs of G P T on, um, long essays, it does does seem to fit into that sort of, not quite a hundred, but not, not off by a lot. Yeah. I mean, I think it's, I think it's a sign that a lot of, uh, uh, mundane, even fairly complex, moderately complex human interactions can be simulated by a large, uh, language learning model.Mm-hmm. . And I think that's, that's, uh, gonna be rough news for a lot of, uh, people whose life was in the realm of words and dispensing simple advice and solving simple problems. That's pretty bad news for their careers. I'm, I'm disappointed hearing that, so [00:46:36] Dwarkesh Patel: Yeah. Yeah. [00:46:37] Garett Jones: Um, at least for the transition. I dunno what the, I dunno what's gonna happen after the transition, but [00:46:41] Dwarkesh Patel: Yeah.I'm hoping that's not true of programmers or economists. I like you. I mean, [00:46:46] Garett Jones: it might be right. I mean, it's, if that's the way it is, I mean, I, the, I mean, the car put a lot of, uh, people who took care of horses right out of outta work too, so. [00:46:55] Dwarkesh Patel: Yep. Um, even, okay, so let's talk about democracy that I thought this was also one of your really interesting books.No, thanks. Yeah. [00:47:02] Democracy, Fed, FDA, & Presidential Power[00:47:02] Dwarkesh Patel: even controlling for how much democratic oversight there is of institutions in the government. There seems to be a wide discrepancy of how well they work. Like the Fed seems to work reasonably well. I, I, I don't know enough about macroeconomics to know how the object level decisions they make, but mm-hmm.you know, it seems to be a non-corrupt, like, uh, technocratic organization. Um, enough, but yeah. Yeah. Uh, if you look at something like the fda, it's also somewhat insulated from democratic processes. It seems to not work as well. Mm-hmm. , what determines controlling food democracy? What controls, what, what determines how well an institution in the government works?[00:47:38] Garett Jones: Well, I, I think, um, in the case, the Fed, it really does matter that they, uh, the people who run it have guaranteed long terms and they print their own money to spend mm-hmm. . So that means that they're basically, Congress has to really. Make an effort to change anything of the Fed. So they really have the kind of independence that matters.Right. You know, they have a room of their own. And, uh, the FDA has to come to Congress for money more or less every year. And the fda, uh, heads do not have any kind of security of appointment. Their appoint, they serve at the pleasure of the president. Mm-hmm. . So I do think that they don't have real independence.Uh, I do think that they're basically, um, they're living in this slack, this area of slack to use this sort of mcno gas PolySci jargon. They're living in this realm of slack between the fact that the president doesn't wanna me, uh, muddle with them, uh, metal with them, excuse me. And the fact that Congress doesn't really wanna medal with them.But on the other hand, , I really think that that the f d A and the C d C are doing what Congress more or less wanted them to do. They reflect, they reflect the muddled disarray that Congress was in over the period of say, COVID. Hmm. Uh, that I think that's a first order importance. I mean, I do think the fact, it's the fact that, uh, f d A and c d C don't ha, uh, seem to have that culture of, um, raw technocracy the way the Fed does that, I think that has to be important on its own.But I think behind that, some of that is just like F D A C D C creatures of Congress much more than the Fed is. Should the [00:49:17] Dwarkesh Patel: power of the president be increased? [00:49:20] Garett Jones: Uh, no. No. Like the power of independent committees should be increased. Like more Congress should be like the Fed. If, uh, my plan for a Fed re for an FDA or CDC reorganization would be.Making them more like the Fed, where they have appointed experts who have long terms and they have enough of a long term that they can basically feel like they can blow off Congress and build their own culture. [00:49:42] EU is a force for good?[00:49:42] Dwarkesh Patel: Mm-hmm. , , so the European Union is an interesting example here because they also have these appointed technocrats, but they seem more interested in creating anno annoying popups on your websites than with dealing with econo, the, you know, the end of economic growth on the continent.Is this a story where more democracy would've helped, or how do you think about the European Union in this context? [00:50:04] Garett Jones: No. And the eu, like, uh, the European, European voters just aren't that excited about democracy. I, excuse me, aren't that excited about markets overall. The EU is gonna reflect that, right? Um, what little evidence we have suggests that, uh, countries that are getting ready to join the eu, they improve their economic freedom scores, their sort of laissez fairness.Hmm. Uh, on the path to getting ready for. , uh, join an eu. So, and then they may increase it a little bit afterwards once they join. But basically it's like, it's like, uh, when you're deciding to join the eu, it's like you decided you have your rocky training montage and get more laissez-faire. And so EU on net is a mess at polls in the direction of markets compared to where, uh, Europe would be otherwise.I mean, just look at the nations that are in the EU now, right? A lot of them are, um, east of Germany, right? And so those are countries that don't have this great, you know, uh, history of being market friendly. And a lot of parties aren't that market friendly, and yet the EU sort of nags them into their version, like as much markets as they can handle.So [00:51:05] Dwarkesh Patel: what do you think explains the fact that the Europe, uh, Europe as a whole and the voters in there are less market friendly than Americans? I mean, if you look at the sort of deep roots analysis of Europe, you would think that they should be the most. Uh, most in favor of, I don't know if the deep roots, uh, actually maybe they apply that, but Yeah, [00:51:23] Garett Jones: compared to the planet as a whole, they're pretty good.Right? So, um, I, I'm, I never get that excited about like, the small little distinctions between the US and Europe, like these 30% GDP differences, which are very exciting to pundits and bloggers and whatever. I'm like 30% doesn't matter very much. That's not really my bailiwick. What I'm really interested in is the 3000% between the poorest countries and the richest countries.So, like I can speculate about Europe, I, I don't really have a great answer. I mean, I, I think there's something to the, the naive view that, um, the Europeans with the most, uh, what my dad would call gumption are those who left and came to America. Some openness, some adventurousness. Uh, and maybe that's part of what trans, uh, made we, so basically there's a lot of selection working, uh, on the migration side to, uh, make America more open to laissez fair than Europe would be.[00:52:14] Dwarkesh Patel: Does that overall make you more optimistic about migration to the US from anywhere? Like, you know, the same story [00:52:20] Garett Jones: of Yeah. Center is perab us like America, America gets people who are really great, right? I went with you there. Yeah. [00:52:26] Dwarkesh Patel: Does, um, elite technocratic control work best in only in high IQ countries?Because otherwise you don't have these high IQ elites who can make good policies for you, but you also don't get the democratic protections against famine and war and things like that. [00:52:43] Garett Jones: Oh, I mean, I don't know. I think, I think the case for, for, uh, handing things over to elites is pretty strong in anything that's moderately democratic, right?Um, I don't have to be. Anything that's substantially more democratic than the official measure of Singapore, for instance. I mean, that's why my book 10% Less Democracy, really is targeted at the rich, rich democracies. Once we get too far below, uh, the rich democracies, I figure once you put elites in charge, they really are just gonna be old-fashioned Gordon to rent seekers and steer everything Jordan themselves and not give a darn about the masses at all.So that's, you know, uh, elite control in a democracy, a a lot of elite control in any kind of democracy, I think is gonna have good effect. If it's re you're really looking at something that is, uh, that meets a Mar Sen's definition of a democracy competitive market. Competitive party's free press. [00:53:38] Dwarkesh Patel: Mm-hmm.does Singapore meet that criteria? [00:53:41] Garett Jones: No. Because their parties aren't really allowed to compete. I mean, that's pretty obvious. Yeah. The, the pa the People's Action Party really controls, uh, party competition there. [00:53:52] Dwarkesh Patel: So, but it, I guess Singapore is one of the great examples of technocratic, um, technocratic control, and [00:53:59] Garett Jones: they're just an exception of the rule.Most countries that try to pull off that lower level democracy wind up much [00:54:03] Dwarkesh Patel: worse. So what is your, uh, what is your opinion of Neoreactionaries? I guess they're not in favor of 10% less democracy. They're more in favor of a hundred percent less democracy. [00:54:12] Garett Jones: But yeah, I think they're like kind of too much LARPing, too much romanticizing about the roheim, I guess.I don't know. What is rheum? Yeah. The, these guys in the Lord of the Rings, you know? . , romanticizing Monarch is a mistake. Um, it's worth noting that, uh, as my colleague Gordon Tok pointed out, as along as many others, uh, in Equilibrium Kings are almost always king and council, right.and so it's worth thinking through why King and Council is the equilibrium. Something more like a corporate board and less like, um, either the libertarian ideal of the entrepreneur who, who owns the firm, or the monarch who has the long-term interest in being a stationary bandit in real life. There's this sort of muddled thing in between that works out as the equilibrium, even in the successful so-called monarchies.So it's worth thinking through why it is that the successful so-called monarchies aren't really monarchies, right? They're really oligarchies. [00:55:12] Dwarkesh Patel: Yep. Yep. Um, if you look at the median voter in terms of their preferences on academic policies, it seems like they're probably more, um, in favor of government involvement than the actual policies of the United States, for example.Yeah. What explains this? Shouldn't the media voter theorem that we should be much less libertarian as a country than? Yeah, that's a great [00:55:35] Garett Jones: point from, um, Brian Kaplan's excellent. Bill Smith of the rational voter. Right? Yeah. I think part of it, I mean, I think his stories are right, which is that, uh, politicians facing reelection have this tradeoff between giving voters what the voters say they want and giving the voters the economic growth that will help the politicians get reelected, right?Mm-hmm. Um, so it's, uh, it's a version of saying like, you know, I don't want you to p

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A Conversation with Professor Steve Hanke | Analysis of U.S. Midterm Elections | Misery Index | US Miltary Aid to Ukraine — Addressing Corruption

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Play Episode Listen Later Dec 10, 2022 31:39

Join America's Roundtable (https://americasrt.com/) Radio co-hosts Natasha Srdoc and Joel Anand Samy in a conversation with Steve H. Hanke, a top economist and leading monetarist. Dr. Steve Hanke provides an analysis of midterm elections, an update on America's economy, and raises concerns about the prolonged Ukraine - Russia conflict as the West's economic sanctions fail to bring an end to the war on the European continent. Dr. Hanke has been a strong critic of corruption in Ukraine and recent reports that he highlights raise red flags that US weapons are making its way to the black market. On America's Roundtable, principled leaders have called for greater oversight on how US taxpayer aid is being used in Ukraine and within NATO's Eastern European countries mired in corruption. Professor Hanke also discusses the Misery Index, and "why it is essential for policy-makers to have a read of their constituents' well-being, as viewed through the lens of economic statistics." Report: Hanke's 2021 Misery Index: Who's Miserable and Who's Happy? (https://www.nationalreview.com/2022/03/hankes-2021-misery-index-whos-miserable-and-whos-happy/) Hanke's Annual Misery Index (HAMI). What is it — and how should we conceive of man's well-being? The human condition lies on a vast spectrum between “miserable” and “happy.” In the economic sphere, misery tends to flow from high inflation, steep borrowing costs, and unemployment. The surefire way to mitigate that misery is through economic growth. Comparing countries' metrics can tell us a lot about where in the world people are sad or happy. HAMI gives us the answers. My version of the misery index is the sum of the year-end unemployment, inflation, and bank-lending rates, minus the annual percentage change in real GDP per capita. Higher readings on the first three elements are “bad” and make people more miserable. These “bads” are offset by a “good” (real GDP per capita growth), which is subtracted from the sum of the bads to yield a HAMI score. Bio: Dr. Steve H. Hanke Steve H. Hanke is a professor of applied economics and founder and codirector of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise at the Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore. Dr. Steve Hanke served as special counselor to the Center for Financial Stability in New York. Hanke is also a contributing editor at Central Banking in London and a contributor at National Review. In addition, Hanke is a member of the Charter Council of the Society for Economic Measurement and of the Euromoney Country Risk's Experts Panel. In the past, Hanke taught economics at the Colorado School of Mines and at the University of California, Berkeley. He served as a member of the Governor's Council of Economic Advisers in Maryland in 1976– 77, as a senior economist on President Reagan's Council of Economic Advisers in 1981–82, and as a senior adviser to the Joint Economic Committee of the U.S. Congress in 1984–88. Hanke served as a state counselor to both the Republic of Lithuania in 1994–96 and the Republic of Montenegro in 1999–2003. He was also an adviser to the presidents of Bulgaria in 1997–2002, Venezuela in 1995–96, and Indonesia in 1998. He played an important role in establishing new currency regimes in Argentina, Estonia, Bulgaria, Bosnia‐Herzegovina, Ecuador, Lithuania, and Montenegro. Hanke has also held senior appointments in the governments of many other countries, including Albania, Kazakhstan, the United Arab Emirates, and Yugoslavia. Hanke has been awarded honorary doctorate degrees by the Universidad San Francisco de Quito (2003), the Free University of Tbilisi (2010), Istanbul Kültür University (2012), the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences (2013), Varna Free University (2015), the Universität Liechtenstein (2017), and the D.A. Tsenov Academy of Economics (2018) in recognition of his scholarship on exchange‐rate regimes. He is a distinguished associate of the International Atlantic Economic Society, a distinguished professor at the Universitas Pelita Harapan in Jakarta, Indonesia, a professor asociado (the highest honor awarded to international experts of acknowledged competence) at the Universidad del Azuay in Cuenca, Ecuador, and a profesor visitante at the Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas (the UPC's highest academic honor). In 1998, he was named one of the 25 most influential people in the world by World Trade Magazine. In 2020, Hanke was named a Knight of the Order of the Flag. Hanke is a well‐known currency and commodity trader. Currently, he serves as chairman of the Supervisory Board of Advanced Metallurgical Group N.V. in Amsterdam and chairman emeritus of the Friedberg Mercantile Group Inc. in Toronto. During the 1990s, he served as president of Toronto Trust Argentina in Buenos Aires, the world's best‐performing emerging market mutual fund in 1995. Hanke's most recent books are Currency Boards: Volume 1. Theory and Policy (2020), Currency Boards: Volume 2. Studies on Selected European Countries (2020), Currency Boards for Developing Countries: A Handbook (2021), Public Debt Sustainability: International Perspectives (2022), and The Hong Kong Linked Rate Mechanism: Monetary Lessons for Economic Development (2022). americasrt.com (https://americasrt.com/) https://ileaderssummit.org/ | https://jerusalemleaderssummit.com/ America's Roundtable on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/americas-roundtable/id1518878472 Twitter: @steve_hanke @ileaderssummit @AmericasRT @NatashaSrdoc @JoelAnandUSA @supertalk America's Roundtable is co-hosted by Natasha Srdoc and Joel Anand Samy, co-founders of International Leaders Summit and the Jerusalem Leaders Summit. America's Roundtable (https://americasrt.com/) radio program - a strategic initiative of International Leaders Summit, focuses on America's economy, healthcare reform, rule of law, security and trade, and its strategic partnership with rule of law nations around the world. The radio program features high-ranking US administration officials, cabinet members, members of Congress, state government officials, distinguished diplomats, business and media leaders and influential thinkers from around the world. Tune into America's Roundtable Radio program from Washington, DC via live streaming on Saturday mornings via 65 radio stations at 7:30 A.M. (ET) on Lanser Broadcasting Corporation covering the Michigan and the Midwest market, and at 7:30 A.M. (CT) on SuperTalk Mississippi — SuperTalk.FM reaching listeners in every county within the State of Mississippi, and neighboring states in the South including Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana and Tennessee. Listen to America's Roundtable on digital platforms including Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon, Google and other key online platforms. Listen live, Saturdays at 7:30 A.M. (CT) on SuperTalk | https://www.supertalk.fm

A Conversation with Economist Steve Hanke | Is America Headed for a Whopping Recession in 2023? | Russia: Reviewing the Effectiveness of US and EU Sanctions on Moscow — Are Sanctions Really Hurting the Russian Economy?

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Play Episode Listen Later Sep 11, 2022 29:39

Join America's Roundtable Radio co-hosts Natasha Srdoc and Joel Anand Samy in a recent conversation with Steve H. Hanke, a professor of applied economics and founder and co-director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise at the Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore. Steve Hanke is a leading world expert on currency boards, measuring and stopping hyperinflation, privatization, currency and commodity trading, water resource economics, and other topics. The conversation with Professor Hanke will provide listeners with an update on the U.S. economy and the impact of inflation and how government policies affect families and the private sector, specifically small and medium size businesses. Will the Fed's interest rate hikes lead to a soft-landing or a major recession in 2023? On America's Roundtable Radio, Professor Hanke will highlight his economic predictions for 2023. His predictions for 2022 on the inflation rate was right on target, a warning he and his colleague John Greenwood relayed through a commentary in The Wall Street Journal a year ago titled "Too Much Money Portends High Inflation — The Fed should pay attention to Milton Friedman's wisdom. (https://www.wsj.com/articles/money-supply-inflation-friedman-biden-federal-reserve-11626816746)" How Effective are Sanctions on Russia? The discussion will also examine U.S. and European Union sanctions imposed on Russia. This past week we found out that with energy prices up, Moscow is reaping significant financial gains through the sale of oil and gas. A recent Wall Street Journal report stated that through July 2022, Moscow has totaled $97 billion from oil and gas sales, earning $5.4 billion more per month than last year's monthly average. Russia is actually pumping almost as much oil into the global market as it did before prior to the conflict with Ukraine. US Assistance to Ukraine Rises to $60 Billion — While the European Union's Contribution Amounts to $10 Billion Only The Biden Administration along with Democrat and Republican members of Congress have authorized over $60 billion in US taxpayer funds to support Ukraine's military and provide assistance to Europe's NATO members. However, the EU comprised of 27 member states in Europe has only provided 10 billion euros (USD$10 billion) since the beginning of the war. As a leading world expert on currency boards, measuring and stopping hyperinflation, currency and commodity trading, Dr. Hanke will relay his thoughts on the US and Euro currencies and the currency board that he developed for a number of countries around the world. His recent commentary in The Wall Street Journal titled "Floating Exchange Rates Add to Economic Uncertainty (https://www.wsj.com/articles/exchange-rates-float-beyond-parity-dollar-euro-monetary-system-bretton-woods-agreement-inflation-currencies-11659991140)” raised important points. The discussion with Professor Hanke on Saturday morning will focus on the perils of instability which brings problems for the U.S. and Europe—and serious crises to developing nations. Importantly, the conversation will highlight the significance of advancing principled pro-growth policies for America. Recent statements by Professor Steve Hanke: (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/30/steve-hanke-were-going-to-have-one-whopper-of-a-recession-in-2023.html) “We will have a recession because we've had five months of zero M2 growth, money supply growth, and the Fed isn't even looking at it." "The bottom line is we're going to have stagflation — we're going to have the inflation because of this excess that's now coming into the system.” “The problem we have is that the [Fed Chair Jerome Powell] does not understand, even at this point, what the causes of inflation are and were. He's still going on about supply-side glitches. He has failed to tell us that inflation is always caused by excess growth in the money supply, turning the printing presses on.” Bio | Steve H. Hanke (https://engineering.jhu.edu/faculty/steven-hanke/) Steve Hanke is a leading world expert on currency boards, measuring and stopping hyperinflation, privatization, currency and commodity trading, water resource economics, and other topics. A professor of environmental health and engineering, Hanke is co-founder and co-director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise (https://sites.krieger.jhu.edu/iae), an interdivisional Institute between the Krieger School of Arts and Sciences and the Whiting School of Engineering. The institute's extensive research and publishing focus on applied economics and finance, business history, and public health. Recognized globally for his expertise, Hanke advises a number of public and private institutions. He is a senior advisor at the Renmin University of China's International Monetary Research Institute in Beijing and special counselor to the Center for Financial Stability in New York. A member of the Charter Council of the Society of Economic Measurement and of Euromoney Country Risk's Experts Panel, he also served on the Governor's Council of Economic Advisers in Maryland in 1976-77 and as a Senior Advisor to the Joint Economic Committee of the U.S. Congress in 1984-88. As a senior economist on President Reagan's Council of Economic Advisers, he led a team of economists in re-writing the federal government's Principles and Guidelines for Water and Land Related Resources Implementation Studies. In addition, he was responsible for designing Reagan's major privatization initiatives. A faculty member of the JHU Global Water Institute (https://publichealth.jhu.edu/departments/environmental-health-and-engineering/research-and-practice/research-areas/water-sanitation-hygiene-and-health/johns-hopkins-university-water-center), Hanke remains a sought-after expert on municipal water system privatization. His international appointments also include state counselor to both the Republic of Lithuania in 1994-96 and the Republic of Montenegro in 1999-2003. He advised the presidents of Bulgaria (1997-2002), Venezuela (1995-96), and Indonesia (1998). He played an important role in establishing new currency regimes in Argentina, Estonia, Bulgaria, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Ecuador, Lithuania, and Montenegro. Hanke has also held senior appointments in the governments of many other countries, including Albania, Kazakhstan, the United Arab Emirates, and Yugoslavia. A well-known currency and commodity trader, Hanke is chairman of the Supervisory Board of Advanced Metallurgical Group N.V. in Amsterdam and chairman emeritus of the Friedberg Mercantile Group, Inc. in Toronto. During the 1990s, he served as president of Toronto Trust Argentina in Buenos Aires, the world's best-performing emerging market mutual fund in 1995. Hanke serves as a contributing editor at Central Banking, The International Economy, and The Independent Review. Hanke also serves on the editorial boards of numerous scholarly journals. https://ileaderssummit.org/services/americas-roundtable-radio/ https://ileaderssummit.org/ | https://jerusalemleaderssummit.com/ America's Roundtable on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/americas-roundtable/id1518878472 Twitter: @steve_hanke @supertalk @ileaderssummit @NatashaSrdoc @JoelAnandUSA America's Roundtable is co-hosted by Natasha Srdoc and Joel Anand Samy, co-founders of International Leaders Summit and the Jerusalem Leaders Summit. America's Roundtable radio program - a strategic initiative of International Leaders Summit, focuses on America's economy, healthcare reform, rule of law, security and trade, and its strategic partnership with rule of law nations around the world. The radio program features high-ranking US administration officials, cabinet members, members of Congress, state government officials, distinguished diplomats, business and media leaders and influential thinkers from around the world. America's Roundtable is aired by Lanser Broadcasting Corporation on 96.5 FM and 98.9 FM, covering Michigan's major market, SuperTalk Mississippi Media's 12 radio stations and 50 affiliates reaching every county in Mississippi and also heard in parts of the neighboring states, including Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana and Tennessee, and through podcast on Apple Podcasts and other key online platforms.

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The Fallacy of Market Monetarism

Mises Media

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 29, 2022

The original Monetarists (Milton Friedman), Scott Sumner, and problems with Market Monetarism. Download the slides from this lecture at Mises.org/MU22_PPT_38. Recorded at the Mises Institute in Auburn, Alabama, on 29 July 2022.

Dr. Steve Hanke | U.S. Inflation at 40-year High | Energy Independence | Failure of Sanctions — Russia

united states america china japan americans west russia michigan joe biden european ukraine failure washington dc russian european union study tennessee alabama institute congress white house maryland economy prof baltimore louisiana vladimir putin council mississippi switzerland arkansas uncertainty inflation roundtable taxes corruption prices recession fed cnbc federal reserve currency ronald reagan biden administration bulgaria johns hopkins university estonia goods friedman sanctions leases slowing lithuania gas prices global health us dollar jerome powell economic growth public lands m2 permits high energy milton friedman stagflation hyperinflation adherence biden white house year high economic advisers bosnia herzegovina applied economics energy independence hanke purchasing power printing press business enterprise joint economic committee steve hanke gas drilling my plan monetarism on america john greenwood

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 2, 2022 27:50

Join America's Roundtable co-hosts Natasha Srdoc and Joel Anand Samy for a conversation with Dr. Steve H. Hanke, professor of applied economics and founder and co-director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise at the Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore. Prof. Hanke served as senior economist on President Ronald Reagan's Council of Economic Advisers and as senior adviser to the Joint Economic Committee of the U.S. Congress. The discussion will highlight the reasons that Americans are facing skyrocketing inflation and high gas prices. On America's Roundtable, Professor Hanke will share why he believes that there is a 70 percent chance of a recession impacting America — and stagflation as a real possibility. "According to what the Fed released on Tuesday, the US money supply (M2) has slowed dramatically in the past two months. If this plunge continues, a recession will begin late in 2022 or early 2023. The Fed is clearly doing what they've been doing for some time: flying blind." — Professor Steve Hanke The conversation will also delve into America and the West's failure to change Russia's behavior as Putin and his generals wage war on the European continent. Professor Hanke, a strong critic regarding the effectiveness of imposing sanctions will share empirical observations and history's lessons regarding this failed effort being pushed by politicians. CNBC report (https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/23/russias-ruble-is-at-strongest-level-in-7-years-despite-sanctions.html) "Russia's ruble hit its strongest level in 7 years despite massive sanctions. Here's why" — "The reasons are, to put it simply: strikingly high energy prices, capital controls and sanctions themselves. Russia is the world's largest exporter of gas and the second-largest exporter of oil. Its primary customer? The European Union, which has been buying billions of dollars worth of Russian energy per week while simultaneously trying to punish it with sanctions." WSJ: Cancel Milton Friedman, and Inflation Is What You Get — By Steve H. Hanke and John Greenwood (https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-joe-biden-op-ed-wsj-milton-friedman-monetarism-fed-11654293974) | June 5, 2022 The word ‘money' doesn't even appear in President Biden's plan to whip inflation. The lead paragraph of President Biden's op-ed “My Plan for Fighting Inflation (https://www.wsj.com/articles/my-plan-for-fighting-inflation-joe-biden-gas-prices-economy-unemployment-jobs-covid-11653940654?mod=article_inline)” (May 31) asserts that the global economy faces an inflation problem exacerbated by Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine, high oil prices and supply-chain problems. This line of argument shows why the president's team and the experts at the Federal Reserve were unable to anticipate the inflation conundrum that their economic missteps have forced us into. It also shows why the president's plan will likely fail to allow us to exit inflation with a smooth landing. We don't have a global inflation problem. Inflations are always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon spawned by the creation of excess money by local central banks. China, Japan and Switzerland also face elevated oil prices, supply-chain problems and fallout from the war in Ukraine, but their annual inflation rates are 2.1%, 2.5% and 2.5%, respectively. They have avoided the ravages of inflation because their central banks haven't produced excessive quantities of money. Adherence to the tenets of monetarism is nowhere to be found in the Biden White House or the Fed. Chairman Jerome Powell has stressed that we had to “unlearn” monetarism. It looks like Mr. Biden was an attentive student. The word “money” doesn't even appear in his plan to whip inflation. As he said in 2020, “Milton Friedman isn't running the show anymore.” As long as Friedman and monetarism remain canceled, the White House and the Fed will be grasping for straws. Prof. Steve Hanke and John Greenwood Johns Hopkins University Baltimore and London Further reading: WSJ: The Fed Needs to Put Its Eye on the Money Supply — By John Greenwood and Steve H. Hanke (https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-fed-needs-to-put-its-eye-on-the-money-supply-inflation-transitory-banking-system-rates-11646944490) Slowing its growth without triggering a recession is a tricky proposition. Is the central bank up for it? WSJ: Jerome Powell Is Wrong. Printing Money Causes Inflation — By Steve H. Hanke and Nicholas Hanlon (https://www.wsj.com/articles/powell-printing-money-supply-m2-raises-prices-level-inflation-demand-prediction-wage-stagnation-stagflation-federal-reserve-monetary-policy-11645630424) The Fed chairman insists the growth of M2 doesn't ‘have important implications.' The math shows otherwise. https://ileaderssummit.org/services/americas-roundtable-radio/ https://ileaderssummit.org/ | https://jerusalemleaderssummit.com/ America's Roundtable on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/americas-roundtable/id1518878472 Twitter: @steve_hanke @supertalk @ileaderssummit @NatashaSrdoc @JoelAnandUSA America's Roundtable is co-hosted by Natasha Srdoc and Joel Anand Samy, co-founders of International Leaders Summit and the Jerusalem Leaders Summit. America's Roundtable radio program - a strategic initiative of International Leaders Summit, focuses on America's economy, healthcare reform, rule of law, security and trade, and its strategic partnership with rule of law nations around the world. The radio program features high-ranking US administration officials, cabinet members, members of Congress, state government officials, distinguished diplomats, business and media leaders and influential thinkers from around the world. America's Roundtable is aired by Lanser Broadcasting Corporation on 96.5 FM and 98.9 FM, covering Michigan's major market, SuperTalk Mississippi Media's 12 radio stations and 50 affiliates reaching every county in Mississippi and also heard in parts of the neighboring states, including Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana and Tennessee, and through podcast on Apple Podcasts and other key online platforms.

Episode #148: Questions for Monetarism

Free Enterprise in Three Minutes Podcast with Ray Keating

Play Episode Listen Later May 24, 2022 3:32

Monetarism has to be about more than only changes in the money supply, and its advocates say it is. But are the monetarist answers enough?Two great ways to order Ray Keating's new nonfiction book – The Weekly Economist: 52 Quick Reads to Help You Think Like an Economist. Signed paperbacks at RayKeatingOnline.com or paperbacks, hardcovers and Kindle editions at Amazon.com.Two great ways to order Cathedral: An Alliance of Saint Michael Novel, which is Ray's sixteenth work of fiction, and the first in the Alliance of Saint Michael series. Signed paperbacks and/or paperbacks, hardcovers and the Kindle edition at Amazon.Ray Keating is the author of the Pastor Stephen Grant thrillers and mysteries. So far, 15 Pastor Stephen grant adventures have been published, with more coming! The more recent books in the series are Vatican Shadows: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, Past Lives: A Pastor Stephen Grant Short Story, and What's Lost? A Pastor Stephen Grant Short Story. Signed books are available at www.raykeatingonline.com and paperbacks and Kindle editions at Amazon.com.Order Ray Keating's book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York – signed books or at Amazon.And one of Keating's newest books on the economy is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know, which is available at Amazon in paperback or for the Kindle edition, and signed books at www.raykeatingonline.com. Listen to Ray's other podcasts – the PRESS CLUB C podcast and the Daily Dose of Disney with Ray Keating podcast.Check out www.DisneyBizJournal.com.Have Ray Keating speak your group, business, school, church, or organization. Email him at raykeating@keatingreports.com.

amazon disney lost points alliance economists kindle signed keating daily dose pastor stephen saint michael monetarism quick reads ray keating free trade rocks order ray keating left wing new york

Episode #147: What's the Deal with Monetarism?

Free Enterprise in Three Minutes Podcast with Ray Keating

Play Episode Listen Later May 16, 2022 3:35

Ray discusses some key points from the monetarist school of economic thought.Two great ways to order Ray Keating's new nonfiction book – The Weekly Economist: 52 Quick Reads to Help You Think Like an Economist. Signed paperbacks at RayKeatingOnline.com or paperbacks, hardcovers and Kindle editions at Amazon.com.Two great ways to order Cathedral: An Alliance of Saint Michael Novel, which is Ray's sixteenth work of fiction, and the first in the Alliance of Saint Michael series. Signed paperbacks and/or paperbacks, hardcovers and the Kindle edition at Amazon.Ray Keating is the author of the Pastor Stephen Grant thrillers and mysteries. So far, 15 Pastor Stephen grant adventures have been published, with more coming! The more recent books in the series are Vatican Shadows: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, Past Lives: A Pastor Stephen Grant Short Story, and What's Lost? A Pastor Stephen Grant Short Story. Signed books are available at www.raykeatingonline.com and paperbacks and Kindle editions at Amazon.com.Order Ray Keating's book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York – signed books or at Amazon.And one of Keating's newest books on the economy is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know, which is available at Amazon in paperback or for the Kindle edition, and signed books at www.raykeatingonline.com. Listen to Ray's other podcasts – the PRESS CLUB C podcast and the Daily Dose of Disney with Ray Keating podcast.Check out www.DisneyBizJournal.com.Have Ray Keating speak your group, business, school, church, or organization. Email him at raykeating@keatingreports.com.

amazon disney lost points alliance economists kindle signed keating daily dose pastor stephen saint michael monetarism quick reads ray keating free trade rocks order ray keating left wing new york

Dr. Steve Hanke | US Inflation at 7.9% — Fastest Pace in 40 Years | Fed's Surplus of Money Fueling Inflation | Failed Policies from Washington, D.C. Leading to Skyrocketing Gas Prices

market silicon valley village austrian great recession monetary policy scott sumner monetarism

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 31, 2022 39:38

The brilliant economist Dr. Steve Hanke, professor of applied economics and founder and co-director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise at the Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, joins America's Roundtable co-hosts Natasha Srdoc and Joel Anand Samy in a timely conversation on the U.S. Labor Department's report on the rising inflation rate - now at 7.9%, the highest in four decades, about increasing interest rate and how it will impact hard working and decent Americans, families and small and medium private enterprises. On America's Roundtable, key issues and topics impacting America and the world will be brought to the forefront with an in-depth look at how bad policies in Washington, DC, led to skyrocketing gas prices. The discussion will bring to light the Federal Reserve Bank's role in fueling inflation with surplus of money. Steve H. Hanke is professor of applied economics and founder and co-director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise at the Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore. Steve Hanke served on President Ronald Reagan's Council of Economic Advisors and is a leading world expert on measuring and stopping hyperinflation. Further reading: The Monetary Bathtub Is Overflowing https://www.wsj.com/articles/monetary-bathtub-overflowing-inflation-drain-transitory-11634847429 The Fed Needs to Put Its Eye on the Money Supply https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-fed-needs-to-put-its-eye-on-the-money-supply-inflation-transitory-banking-system-rates-11646944490 https://ileaderssummit.org/services/americas-roundtable-radio/ https://ileaderssummit.org/ | https://jerusalemleaderssummit.com/ America's Roundtable on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/americas-roundtable/id1518878472 Twitter: @steve_hanke @supertalk @ileaderssummit @NatashaSrdoc @JoelAnandUSA America's Roundtable is co-hosted by Natasha Srdoc and Joel Anand Samy, co-founders of International Leaders Summit and the Jerusalem Leaders Summit. America's Roundtable radio program - a strategic initiative of International Leaders Summit, focuses on America's economy, healthcare reform, rule of law, security and trade, and its strategic partnership with rule of law nations around the world. The radio program features high-ranking US administration officials, cabinet members, members of Congress, state government officials, distinguished diplomats, business and media leaders and influential thinkers from around the world. America's Roundtable is aired by Lanser Broadcasting Corporation on 96.5 FM and 98.9 FM, covering Michigan's major market, SuperTalk Mississippi Media's 12 radio stations and 50 affiliates reaching every county in Mississippi and also heard in parts of the neighboring states, including Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana and Tennessee, and through podcast on Apple Podcasts and other key online platforms.

Market Monetarism and The Future of Monetary Policy with Scott Sumner

Venture Stories

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 28, 2021 59:18

Scott Sumner (@scottsumnertmi), economist and author of The Money Illusion, joins Erik on this episode to discuss:- Why Scott says that the fed should have been more expansionary during the Great Recession.- The usefulness of level targeting.- Why house prices are going to remain permanently high for the 21st century.- An explanation of market monetarism and its implications for monetary policy.- Why he is forecasting low inflation in contrast to many of his peers.- How market monetarism differs from modern monetary theory and Austrian economics.Thanks for listening — if you like what you hear, please review us on your favorite podcast platform. Check us out on the web at www.villageglobal.vc or get in touch with us on Twitter @villageglobal.Want to get updates from us? Subscribe to get a peek inside the Village. We'll send you reading recommendations, exclusive event invites, and commentary on the latest happenings in Silicon Valley. www.villageglobal.vc/signup

Steve H. Hanke | Message to the Fed on Highest US Inflation Surge in Four Decades | Remembrances of Senator Robert Dole

covid-19 united states america money china washington americans michigan washington dc study tennessee alabama institute congress maryland vaccines economy baltimore sweden climate change louisiana mississippi midwest arkansas inflation roundtable swedish constitution senators corruption prices relevant fed oil highest surge shifts freedom of speech currency realm lockdowns bulgaria johns hopkins university estonia goods lithuania deficit global health yugoslavia us dollar jerome powell economic growth national review dole cato institute swedes national debt milton friedman hyperinflation labor department bob dole bosnia herzegovina applied economics four decades remembrances hanke purchasing power printing press business enterprise individual liberty steve hanke steve h monetarism

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 14, 2021 30:17

The brilliant economist Dr. Steve Hanke, professor of applied economics and founder and co-director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise at the Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, joins America's Roundtable co-hosts Natasha Srdoc and Joel Anand Samy in a timely conversation on the U.S. Labor Department's report on the rising inflation rate - now at 6.8%, the highest in nearly four decades, the talks about increasing interest rate and how it will impact hard working and decent Americans, families and small and medium private enterprises. The conversation will also focus on Dr. Hanke's recent piece in The National Review (https://www.nationalreview.com/2021/12/remembrances-of-senator-robert-dole-and-a-russia-story/#slide-1) on the passing away of one of America's greatest heroes and public servants, former Senator Bob Dole: Remembrances of Senator Robert Dole — and a Russia Story (https://www.nationalreview.com/2021/12/remembrances-of-senator-robert-dole-and-a-russia-story/#slide-1). We also delve into the serious implications of the Covid-19 lockdowns impacting America and countries around the world, with the exception of places like Sweden which upheld its constitution, respected individual liberty, and chose a laissez-faire approach. Dr. Steve H. Hanke is a leading world expert on currency boards, measuring and stopping hyperinflation, privatization, currency and commodity trading, water resource economics, and other topics. As a senior fellow and director of the Troubled Currencies Project at the internationally recognized Cato Institute in Washington, D.C., Hanke studies countries unable to maintain a stable domestic currency. Often, it is difficult to obtain timely, reliable exchange-rate and inflation data for these “troubled currencies.” Full bio: https://engineering.jhu.edu/ehe/faculty/steve-h-hanke/ Relevant reading materials: The Wall Street Journal | The Monetary Bathtub Is Overflowing (https://www.wsj.com/articles/monetary-bathtub-overflowing-inflation-drain-transitory-11634847429) Many economists say inflation is transitory. It will be persistent. By John Greenwood and Steve H. Hanke “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon,” Milton Friedman said. Inflation isn't caused by temporary supply-chain disruptions. Take Japan during the 1979-80 oil crisis: Oil prices surged, but consumer prices remained stable. In China today, raw-material prices are soaring, but consumer prices have hardly budged. To explain what is happening in the U.S. economy, we present the bathtub theory of money and inflation. Money flows into the tub through the faucet. The bathtub has three drains." Full text: https://www.wsj.com/articles/monetary-bathtub-overflowing-inflation-drain-transitory-11634847429 The Wall Street Journal | Freedom and Sweden's Constitution (https://www.wsj.com/articles/freedom-and-swedens-constitution-11589993183) The country's laissez-faire response to the coronavirus pandemic has deep roots in both culture and law. By Lars Jonung and Steve H. Hanke "In most countries, the tool of choice to “flatten the curve” of the coronavirus pandemic is the lockdown. Not in Sweden, which has chosen a rather laissez-faire approach. The borders have been kept open, and Swedes are free to travel within the country, visit bars and restaurants (with some restrictions), parks, hairdressers, gyms and most other places. The cornerstone of the Swedish response is its constitution's most important part, the Regeringsform. Chapter 2, Article 8 states: “Everyone shall be protected in their relations with the public institutions against deprivations of personal liberty. All Swedish citizens shall also in other respects be guaranteed freedom of movement within the Realm and freedom to depart the Realm.” Full text: https://www.wsj.com/articles/freedom-and-swedens-constitution-11589993183 The Financial Times | On a long enough timeline is all inflation transitory? (https://www.ft.com/content/88111d60-52de-4341-9351-c48db837f30f) "Inflationistas like Steve Hanke were indignant that US inflation was not a transitory supply chain problem. “Shifts in consumer spending have resulted in broad-based price increases across expenditure categories” because “the incompetent Fed has produced a massive amount of excess money,” he proclaimed." Full text: https://www.ft.com/content/88111d60-52de-4341-9351-c48db837f30f https://ileaderssummit.org/services/americas-roundtable-radio/ https://ileaderssummit.org/ | https://jerusalemleaderssummit.com/ America's Roundtable on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/americas-roundtable/id1518878472 Twitter: @steve_hanke @ileaderssummit @NatashaSrdoc @JoelAnandUSA America's Roundtable is co-hosted by Natasha Srdoc and Joel Anand Samy, co-founders of International Leaders Summit and the Jerusalem Leaders Summit. America's Roundtable from Washington D.C. informs, educates, empowers and challenges the listening audience about the importance to restore, strengthen, and protect our freedoms, the rule of law, and free markets. America's Roundtable advances the ideas of freedom, the significance of freedom of speech, limited government, and the application of free market principles to solve problems. America's Roundtable presents in-depth analysis of current events and public policy issues while applying America's founding principles. America's Roundtable radio program - a strategic initiative of International Leaders Summit, focuses on America's economy, healthcare reform, rule of law, security and trade, and its strategic partnership with rule of law nations around the world. The radio program features high-ranking US administration officials, cabinet members, members of Congress, state government officials, distinguished diplomats, business and media leaders and influential thinkers from around the world. America's Roundtable is aired by Lanser Broadcasting Corporation on 96.5 FM and 98.9 FM, covering Michigan's major market and the upper Midwest, SuperTalk Mississippi Media's 12 radio stations and 50 affiliates reaching every county in Mississippi and also heard in parts of the neighboring states, including Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana and Tennessee, and through podcast on Apple Podcasts and other key online platforms.

Scott Sumner, "The Money Illusion: Market Monetarism, the Great Recession, and the Future of Monetary Policy" (U Chicago Press, 2021)

New Books in Business, Management, and Marketing

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 27, 2021 76:43

Is it possible that the consensus around what caused the 2008 Great Recession is almost entirely wrong? It's happened before. Just as Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz led the economics community in the 1960s to reevaluate its view of what caused the Great Depression, the same may be happening now to our understanding of the first economic crisis of this century. Foregoing the usual relitigating of the problems of housing markets and banking crises, renowned monetary economist Scott Sumner argues that the Great Recession came down to one thing: nominal GDP, the sum of all nominal spending in the economy, which the Federal Reserve erred in allowing to plummet. The Money Illusion: Market Monetarism, the Great Recession, and the Future of Monetary Policy (University of Chicago Press, 2021) is an end-to-end case for this school of thought, known as market monetarism, written by its leading voice in economics. Based almost entirely on standard macroeconomic concepts, this highly accessible text lays a groundwork for a simple yet fundamentally radical understanding of how monetary policy can work best: providing a stable environment for a market economy to flourish. Scott Sumner is the Ralph G. Hawtrey Chair of Monetary Policy at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. He is also Professor Emeritus at Bentley University and Research Fellow at the Independent Institute. Kirk Meighoo is Public Relations Officer for the United National Congress, the Official Opposition in Trinidad and Tobago. His career has spanned media, academia, and politics for three decades. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Scott Sumner, "The Money Illusion: Market Monetarism, the Great Recession, and the Future of Monetary Policy" (U Chicago Press, 2021)

NBN Book of the Day

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 27, 2021 76:43

Is it possible that the consensus around what caused the 2008 Great Recession is almost entirely wrong? It's happened before. Just as Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz led the economics community in the 1960s to reevaluate its view of what caused the Great Depression, the same may be happening now to our understanding of the first economic crisis of this century. Foregoing the usual relitigating of the problems of housing markets and banking crises, renowned monetary economist Scott Sumner argues that the Great Recession came down to one thing: nominal GDP, the sum of all nominal spending in the economy, which the Federal Reserve erred in allowing to plummet. The Money Illusion: Market Monetarism, the Great Recession, and the Future of Monetary Policy (University of Chicago Press, 2021) is an end-to-end case for this school of thought, known as market monetarism, written by its leading voice in economics. Based almost entirely on standard macroeconomic concepts, this highly accessible text lays a groundwork for a simple yet fundamentally radical understanding of how monetary policy can work best: providing a stable environment for a market economy to flourish. Scott Sumner is the Ralph G. Hawtrey Chair of Monetary Policy at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. He is also Professor Emeritus at Bentley University and Research Fellow at the Independent Institute. Kirk Meighoo is Public Relations Officer for the United National Congress, the Official Opposition in Trinidad and Tobago. His career has spanned media, academia, and politics for three decades. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/book-of-the-day

Scott Sumner, "The Money Illusion: Market Monetarism, the Great Recession, and the Future of Monetary Policy" (U Chicago Press, 2021)

New Books in Public Policy

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 27, 2021 76:43

Is it possible that the consensus around what caused the 2008 Great Recession is almost entirely wrong? It's happened before. Just as Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz led the economics community in the 1960s to reevaluate its view of what caused the Great Depression, the same may be happening now to our understanding of the first economic crisis of this century. Foregoing the usual relitigating of the problems of housing markets and banking crises, renowned monetary economist Scott Sumner argues that the Great Recession came down to one thing: nominal GDP, the sum of all nominal spending in the economy, which the Federal Reserve erred in allowing to plummet. The Money Illusion: Market Monetarism, the Great Recession, and the Future of Monetary Policy (University of Chicago Press, 2021) is an end-to-end case for this school of thought, known as market monetarism, written by its leading voice in economics. Based almost entirely on standard macroeconomic concepts, this highly accessible text lays a groundwork for a simple yet fundamentally radical understanding of how monetary policy can work best: providing a stable environment for a market economy to flourish. Scott Sumner is the Ralph G. Hawtrey Chair of Monetary Policy at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. He is also Professor Emeritus at Bentley University and Research Fellow at the Independent Institute. Kirk Meighoo is Public Relations Officer for the United National Congress, the Official Opposition in Trinidad and Tobago. His career has spanned media, academia, and politics for three decades. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/public-policy

Scott Sumner, "The Money Illusion: Market Monetarism, the Great Recession, and the Future of Monetary Policy" (U Chicago Press, 2021)

New Books in Economics

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 27, 2021 76:43

Is it possible that the consensus around what caused the 2008 Great Recession is almost entirely wrong? It's happened before. Just as Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz led the economics community in the 1960s to reevaluate its view of what caused the Great Depression, the same may be happening now to our understanding of the first economic crisis of this century. Foregoing the usual relitigating of the problems of housing markets and banking crises, renowned monetary economist Scott Sumner argues that the Great Recession came down to one thing: nominal GDP, the sum of all nominal spending in the economy, which the Federal Reserve erred in allowing to plummet. The Money Illusion: Market Monetarism, the Great Recession, and the Future of Monetary Policy (University of Chicago Press, 2021) is an end-to-end case for this school of thought, known as market monetarism, written by its leading voice in economics. Based almost entirely on standard macroeconomic concepts, this highly accessible text lays a groundwork for a simple yet fundamentally radical understanding of how monetary policy can work best: providing a stable environment for a market economy to flourish. Scott Sumner is the Ralph G. Hawtrey Chair of Monetary Policy at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. He is also Professor Emeritus at Bentley University and Research Fellow at the Independent Institute. Kirk Meighoo is Public Relations Officer for the United National Congress, the Official Opposition in Trinidad and Tobago. His career has spanned media, academia, and politics for three decades. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/economics

Scott Sumner, "The Money Illusion: Market Monetarism, the Great Recession, and the Future of Monetary Policy" (U Chicago Press, 2021)

New Books in American Studies

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 27, 2021 76:43

Is it possible that the consensus around what caused the 2008 Great Recession is almost entirely wrong? It's happened before. Just as Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz led the economics community in the 1960s to reevaluate its view of what caused the Great Depression, the same may be happening now to our understanding of the first economic crisis of this century. Foregoing the usual relitigating of the problems of housing markets and banking crises, renowned monetary economist Scott Sumner argues that the Great Recession came down to one thing: nominal GDP, the sum of all nominal spending in the economy, which the Federal Reserve erred in allowing to plummet. The Money Illusion: Market Monetarism, the Great Recession, and the Future of Monetary Policy (University of Chicago Press, 2021) is an end-to-end case for this school of thought, known as market monetarism, written by its leading voice in economics. Based almost entirely on standard macroeconomic concepts, this highly accessible text lays a groundwork for a simple yet fundamentally radical understanding of how monetary policy can work best: providing a stable environment for a market economy to flourish. Scott Sumner is the Ralph G. Hawtrey Chair of Monetary Policy at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. He is also Professor Emeritus at Bentley University and Research Fellow at the Independent Institute. Kirk Meighoo is Public Relations Officer for the United National Congress, the Official Opposition in Trinidad and Tobago. His career has spanned media, academia, and politics for three decades. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/american-studies

Scott Sumner, "The Money Illusion: Market Monetarism, the Great Recession, and the Future of Monetary Policy" (U Chicago Press, 2021)

New Books Network

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 27, 2021 76:43

Is it possible that the consensus around what caused the 2008 Great Recession is almost entirely wrong? It's happened before. Just as Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz led the economics community in the 1960s to reevaluate its view of what caused the Great Depression, the same may be happening now to our understanding of the first economic crisis of this century. Foregoing the usual relitigating of the problems of housing markets and banking crises, renowned monetary economist Scott Sumner argues that the Great Recession came down to one thing: nominal GDP, the sum of all nominal spending in the economy, which the Federal Reserve erred in allowing to plummet. The Money Illusion: Market Monetarism, the Great Recession, and the Future of Monetary Policy (University of Chicago Press, 2021) is an end-to-end case for this school of thought, known as market monetarism, written by its leading voice in economics. Based almost entirely on standard macroeconomic concepts, this highly accessible text lays a groundwork for a simple yet fundamentally radical understanding of how monetary policy can work best: providing a stable environment for a market economy to flourish. Scott Sumner is the Ralph G. Hawtrey Chair of Monetary Policy at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. He is also Professor Emeritus at Bentley University and Research Fellow at the Independent Institute. Kirk Meighoo is Public Relations Officer for the United National Congress, the Official Opposition in Trinidad and Tobago. His career has spanned media, academia, and politics for three decades. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/new-books-network

Scott Sumner, "The Money Illusion: Market Monetarism, the Great Recession, and the Future of Monetary Policy" (U Chicago Press, 2021)

New Books in Politics

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 27, 2021 76:43

Is it possible that the consensus around what caused the 2008 Great Recession is almost entirely wrong? It's happened before. Just as Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz led the economics community in the 1960s to reevaluate its view of what caused the Great Depression, the same may be happening now to our understanding of the first economic crisis of this century. Foregoing the usual relitigating of the problems of housing markets and banking crises, renowned monetary economist Scott Sumner argues that the Great Recession came down to one thing: nominal GDP, the sum of all nominal spending in the economy, which the Federal Reserve erred in allowing to plummet. The Money Illusion: Market Monetarism, the Great Recession, and the Future of Monetary Policy (University of Chicago Press, 2021) is an end-to-end case for this school of thought, known as market monetarism, written by its leading voice in economics. Based almost entirely on standard macroeconomic concepts, this highly accessible text lays a groundwork for a simple yet fundamentally radical understanding of how monetary policy can work best: providing a stable environment for a market economy to flourish. Scott Sumner is the Ralph G. Hawtrey Chair of Monetary Policy at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. He is also Professor Emeritus at Bentley University and Research Fellow at the Independent Institute. Kirk Meighoo is Public Relations Officer for the United National Congress, the Official Opposition in Trinidad and Tobago. His career has spanned media, academia, and politics for three decades. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/politics-and-polemics

Scott Sumner, "The Money Illusion: Market Monetarism, the Great Recession, and the Future of Monetary Policy" (U Chicago Press, 2021)

New Books in Finance

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 27, 2021 76:43

Is it possible that the consensus around what caused the 2008 Great Recession is almost entirely wrong? It's happened before. Just as Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz led the economics community in the 1960s to reevaluate its view of what caused the Great Depression, the same may be happening now to our understanding of the first economic crisis of this century. Foregoing the usual relitigating of the problems of housing markets and banking crises, renowned monetary economist Scott Sumner argues that the Great Recession came down to one thing: nominal GDP, the sum of all nominal spending in the economy, which the Federal Reserve erred in allowing to plummet. The Money Illusion: Market Monetarism, the Great Recession, and the Future of Monetary Policy (University of Chicago Press, 2021) is an end-to-end case for this school of thought, known as market monetarism, written by its leading voice in economics. Based almost entirely on standard macroeconomic concepts, this highly accessible text lays a groundwork for a simple yet fundamentally radical understanding of how monetary policy can work best: providing a stable environment for a market economy to flourish. Scott Sumner is the Ralph G. Hawtrey Chair of Monetary Policy at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. He is also Professor Emeritus at Bentley University and Research Fellow at the Independent Institute. Kirk Meighoo is Public Relations Officer for the United National Congress, the Official Opposition in Trinidad and Tobago. His career has spanned media, academia, and politics for three decades. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/finance

Nicholas Wapshott – Samuelson Friedman: The Battle Over the Free Market

Books Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 15, 2021 23:27

Nicholas Wapshott – W. w. Norton – £22.95 Not many academic economists are household names. But when I was young, Milton Friedman was. The high-priest of Monetarism and intellectual descendant of Friedrich Hayek, his theories were much admired by right-wing politicians such as Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan. Meanwhile Paul Samuelson made his mark with his bestselling economics textbook which was the standard text for decades. I used it myself at school. Nicholas Wapshott has a brilliant eye for the narrative that unlocks the subject for the general reader. In the case of Samuelson and Friedman, Wapshott's springboard is the column in Newsweek magazine that the two economists shared, or … Continue reading →

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Ep 15: Joshua Miller on Market Monetarism, NGDP Targeting and Milton Friedman

Bretton Goods

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 21, 2021 58:08

I talk to Joshua Miller, an extremely smart 16 year old on Nominal GDP Targeting What he disagrees with Milton Friedman the most on The theory behind market monetarism --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/pradyumna-sp/message

market targeting milton friedman joshua miller monetarism

George Gilder on COVID Panic, Bitcoin Design Flaws, Why AI Isn't 'I,' and More

Meeting of Minds Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 16, 2021 55:43

George Gilder was Reagan’s favorite living source of quotes about the economy. He was also the most prescient visionary about the microchip, then the internet, and (now) blockchain. He explains why the global COVID shutdown in the name of “science” was unscientific, why artificial Intelligence will not replace the human mind, why blockchain is a truth system which will replace the Google model of the world, and why you should be attending the www.cosm.technology conference to understand what’s coming next. Recorded at the FreedomFest 2021 conference in Rapid City South Dakota. http://2021.freedomfest.com/ Timestamps:0:00 – Intro3:43 – The channel and the signal, replacing oil7:13 – Socialized energy risks shortage9:34 – The “system of the world”, Life After Google12:50 – The forgotten “Asian flu”, Coronavirus and Galilee22:18 – The new system of the world and learning curves28:28 – Bitcoin and Monetarism, Milton Friedman in China32:19 – Crypto Currencies and gold38:58 – Tyranny and blockchain47:22 – Mapping the human brain52:08 – Faith precedes knowledgeSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

covid-19 google coronavirus design asian bitcoin panic intelligence mapping tyranny flaws milton friedman freedom fest socialized george gilder rapid city south dakota monetarism

Dr. Steve Hanke | US Inflation Surge is Harbinger of What's to Come | Cuba Protests: The Impact of Socialism | Currency Boards

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Play Episode Listen Later Jul 24, 2021 24:47

Join America's Roundtable co-hosts Natasha Srdoc and Joel Anand Samy with Dr. Steve H. Hanke, a leading world expert on currency boards, measuring and stopping hyperinflation, privatization, currency and commodity trading, water resource economics, and other topics. A professor in the Department of Environmental Health and Engineering at the Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, Maryland, Dr. Hanke is co-founder and co-director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise, an interdivisional Institute between the Krieger School of Arts and Sciences and the Whiting School of Engineering. The institute's extensive research and publishing focuses on applied economics and finance, business history, and public health. Dr. Hanke is director of the Troubled Currencies Project at the Cato Institute and a senior fellow at Cato's Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives. Further reading — recent articles and op-eds authored by Dr. Steve H. Hanke: The Wall Street Journal: Too Much Money Portends High Inflation The Fed should pay attention to Milton Friedman's wisdom. By John Greenwood and Steve H. Hanke July 20, 2021 Brief excerpt via WSJ: "In his Feb. 23 testimony to Congress, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the growth in the money supply, specifically M2, “doesn't really have important implications.” The experts, the press and the bond vigilantes were as quick to unlearn monetarism, if they ever had learned it, as Mr. Powell. Reporting about U.S. inflation rarely contains the words “money supply.” We are repeatedly told that the most recent upticks in inflation are anomalous and “transitory.” Wrong. The inflation upticks aren't temporary and were predictable, driven by an extraordinary explosion in the money supply. Since March 2020, the M2 has been growing at an average annualized rate of 23.9%—the fastest since World War II. There is so much money out there that banks don't know what to do with it. Via reverse repurchase agreements, banks and money-market funds are lending money to the Fed to the tune of $860 billion. That's unprecedented." Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum: US inflation surge is harbinger of what's to come Money supply growth is feeding into economy and Powell's position is wrong By Steve H. Hanke May 13, 2021 "Armed with those numbers and the monetarist model for national income determination, it is obvious that April's year‐over‐year consumer price index inflation rate of 4.2% is simply a harbinger of more to come. This haunting spectre could spell the end of President Joe Biden's triumphal march." Brief bio: Recognized globally for his expertise, Hanke advises a number of public and private institutions. A member of the Charter Council of the Society of Economic Measurement and of Euromoney Country Risk's Experts Panel, he also served on the Governor's Council of Economic Advisers in Maryland in 1976-77 and as a Senior Advisor to the Joint Economic Committee of the U.S. Congress in 1984-88. As a senior economist on President Reagan's Council of Economic Advisers, he led a team of economists in re-writing the federal government's Principles and Guidelines for Water and Land Related Resources Implementation Studies. In addition, he was responsible for designing Reagan's major privatization initiatives. A faculty member of the JHU Global Water Institute, Hanke remains a sought-after expert on municipal water system privatization. His international appointments also include state counselor to both the Republic of Lithuania in 1994-96 and the Republic of Montenegro in 1999-2003. He advised the presidents of Bulgaria (1997-2002), Venezuela (1995-96), and Indonesia (1998). He played an important role in establishing new currency regimes in Argentina, Estonia, Bulgaria, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Ecuador, Lithuania, and Montenegro. Hanke has also held senior appointments in the governments of many other countries, including Albania, Kazakhstan, the United Arab Emirates, and Yugoslavia. A well-known currency and commodity trader, Hanke is chairman of the Supervisory Board of Advanced Metallurgical Group N.V. in Amsterdam and chairman emeritus of the Friedberg Mercantile Group, Inc. in Toronto. During the 1990s, he served as president of Toronto Trust Argentina in Buenos Aires, the world's best-performing emerging market mutual fund in 1995. https://ileaderssummit.org/services/americas-roundtable-radio/ https://ileaderssummit.org/ | https://jerusalemleaderssummit.com/ America's Roundtable on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/americas-roundtable/id1518878472 Twitter: @steve_hanke @ileaderssummit @NatashaSrdoc @JoelAnandUSA America's Roundtable is co-hosted by Natasha Srdoc and Joel Anand Samy, co-founders of International Leaders Summit and the Jerusalem Leaders Summit. America's Roundtable radio program - a strategic initiative of International Leaders Summit, focuses on America's economy, healthcare reform, rule of law, security and trade, and its strategic partnership with rule of law nations around the world. The radio program features high-ranking US administration officials, cabinet members, members of Congress, state government officials, distinguished diplomats, business and media leaders and influential thinkers from around the world. America's Roundtable is aired by Lanser Broadcasting Corporation on 96.5 FM and 98.9 FM, covering Michigan's major market, SuperTalk Mississippi Media's 12 radio stations and 50 affiliates reaching every county in Mississippi and also heard in parts of the neighboring states, including Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana and Tennessee, and through podcast on Apple Podcasts and other key online platforms.

Scott Sumner on What Milton Friedman Would Think of Monetary Policy Today

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Play Episode Listen Later Jul 19, 2021 53:05

Scott Sumner is the Ralph G. Hawtrey Chair of Monetary Policy at the Mercatus Center. Scott joins David on Macro Musings to discuss Milton Friedman's views and what he might say about some of the recent developments in monetary policy. Specifically, Scott and David talk about nominal interest rates as indicators of the stance of monetary policy, fiscal austerity as means of reducing excessive aggregate demand, Friedman's critique of the Phillips curve and wage and price controls, what Friedman might have said about the recent inflation numbers, and much more. Transcript for the episode can be found here: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/macro-musings Scott's automated Twitter: @MoneyIllusion Scott's blog: https://www.themoneyillusion.com/ Scott's Mercatus profile: https://www.mercatus.org/scholars/scott-sumner Related Links: *Friedman's Smashing Success* by Scott Sumner https://www.econlib.org/friedmans-smashing-success/ *Inflation is a Nominal Phenomenon* by Scott Sumner https://www.econlib.org/inflation-is-a-nominal-phenomenon/ *The Role of Monetary Policy* (1968) by Milton Friedman https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-1-349-24002-9_11 *What Would Milton Friedman Have Thought of Market Monetarism?* by Scott Sumner https://oxford.universitypressscholarship.com/view/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198704324.001.0001/acprof-9780198704324-chapter-15 David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

economics inflation phillips federal reserve friedman macroeconomics milton friedman monetary policy keynesian mercatus center central banking mercatus scott sumner monetarism macro musings ralph g hawtrey

Monetarism

Econwising

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 19, 2021 5:17

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monetarism

Episode 41: A Brief History of the American Electricity Grid From the 1920s to Closure of Indian Point ft. Edgardo Sepulveda

ex.haust

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 2, 2021 67:13

Emmet sits down with economic historian Edgardo Sepulveda (https://twitter.com/E_R_Sepulveda) to talk about the history of the electrical grid in America from the 1920s until the closure of Indian Point. They talk vertical integration, the dawn of public utilities, the rise of monetarism and neoliberalism, the birth of the RTO system, and whether or not it's feasible to reform this precious infrastructure in an age of diminishing expecations and possibilities. Bibliography (https://exhaust.fireside.fm/articles/ep41bib). Twitter (https://twitter.com/ex_haustpodcast). Subscribe to our Patreon for 2 exclusive episodes a month (https://www.patreon.com/exhaust)! Closing Song: "OK FM DOA (https://dillingerfour.bandcamp.com/album/midwestern-songs-of-the-americas)" by the Dillinger Four

Ed Nelson on Milton Friedman’s Legacy, the Quantity Theory of Money, and His Vision for a Money Supply Growth Rule

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Play Episode Listen Later Mar 29, 2021 57:14

Ed Nelson is a Senior Advisor in the Monetary Affairs Division of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Ed has also previously been a professor and has worked at the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, as well as the Bank of England. Returning to the podcast, Ed re-joins Macro Musings to talk about his new book, *Milton Friedman and the Economic Debate in the United States: 1932-1972*. Ed and David specifically discuss the life and work of Milton Friedman, as they explore his journey into monetarism, his contributions to the quantity theory of money, how he envisioned a money supply growth rule, and more. Transcript for the episode can be found here: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/macro-musings Ed’s website: https://sites.google.com/site/edwardnelsonresearch/ Ed’s Fed profile: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/edward-nelson.htm Related Links: *Milton Friedman and the Economic Debate in the United States, 1932-1972: Volume 1* by Edward Nelson https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/M/bo47674126.html *Milton Friedman and the Economic Debate in the United States, 1932-1972: Volume 2* by Edward Nelson https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/M/bo47674466.html *A Monetary and Fiscal Framework for Economic Stability* by Milton Friedman https://www.jstor.org/stable/1810624?seq=1 *Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic* by Neil Wallace and Thomas Sargent https://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/quarterly-review/some-unpleasant-monetarist-arithmetic *Money Mischief: Episodes in Monetary History* by Milton Friedman https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/261872 David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Blitz Talk 29 | A Comeback Story, Inflation

Things Have Changed

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 8, 2021 23:52 Transcription Available

Let’s flashback to the 1970’s, a really interesting use-case for economists to explain what the central bank deals with today, the fear of inflation!If you know anyone who was alive during that time, they probably remember the long lines in gas stations! This is because Nixon, in 1971, made oil price increases illegal (Effectively, a price ceiling) and also cut the link of Gold to the dollar, in an attempt to control inflation. The spending on the Vietnam War and Johnson's “Great Society”, a government spending initiative to reduce poverty levels, was thought to be the root of even-higher inflation.From the 1970’s to the 1980’s, more than 50% of Americans thought that inflation or general price increases was the single biggest problem facing the economy. Contrast to today, when you mention inflation, some people have been looking for it for the past decade or so! That’s because inflation has remained low. Despite the printing of money in the 2008 financial crisis, inflation has largely stayed around 2%. The doomsday warnings of economists who have long-studied Monetarism (ie. the link of excessive money printing and inflation), have been ignored.Every economic policy for a while now, are rooted on the premise that inflation will be low. It is the reason our central bank has been buying up billions of dollars worth of bonds and are cutting interest rates to near-zero. Records being broken in 2020 for how much the government is spending on both monetary and fiscal policy.How does 2021 expect to unfold? How can the Fed defend against the blow-up of prices?The amount of cash in the economy grew about $3 trillion in 6 months. We can expect inflationary pressures to hit at least some parts of the economy.Fiscal Policy will have to be ready to deal with the recession that comes with the sudden rise of interest rates. Another stimulus package, if needed, when GDP growth slows again, basically a round 2 of 2020. This is probably not the best idea given our current state of M2 or excessive money supply.Monetary Policy’s main tool against inflation is hiking the interest rates! Similar to what Volcker did in the 70’s. Since the recent policies of the federal reserve has not worked to push inflation even to the 2% target, economists are skeptical on what the federal reserve can actually do.We hope you’ve learned enough about inflation and are considering taking it easy when increasing your own consumer spending.Support the show (https://thingshavechanged.substack.com/)

Age of Monetarism

Talks from the Hoover Institution

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 25, 2021 17:20

Age of Monetarism Friday, February 19, 2021 Hoover Institution, Stanford University In a draft chapter from her forthcoming biography of Milton Friedman, Jennifer Burns examines Friedman’s influence on Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan, comparing their engagement with monetarism in the 1980s. Jennifer Burns is the leading independent expert on Ayn Rand and the American conservative movement. She is author of the acclaimed biography Goddess of the Market: Ayn Rand and the American Right. Currently, she is writing an intellectual biography of Milton Friedman. At the Hoover Institution, she directs the annual summer Workshop on Political Economy. ABOUT THE HOOVER HISTORY WORKING GROUP https://www.hoover.org/research-teams/history-working-group This interview is part of the History Working Group Seminar Series. A central piece of the History Working Group is the seminar series, which is hosted in partnership with the Hoover Library & Archives. The seminar series was launched in the fall of 2019, and thus far has included six talks from Hoover research fellows, visiting scholars, and Stanford faculty. The seminars provide outside experts with an opportunity to present their research and receive feedback on their work. While the lunch seminars have grown in reputation, they have been purposefully kept small in order to ensure that the discussion retains a good seminar atmosphere.

american stanford workshop goddess ronald reagan friedman hoover margaret thatcher ayn rand political economy hoover institution milton friedman american right jennifer burns monetarism market ayn rand

The Fed and Inflation Targeting

Economics Explained

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 18, 2021 41:49

Economics Explored host Gene Tunny discusses the US Fed's new approach to inflation targeting with Michael Knox, the Chief Economist of leading Australian wealth management firm Morgans. The approach implies the Fed will allow the economy to run hot for a while during the recovery from the pandemic recession. The conversation revolves around Michael's recent note:The Fed - Allowing the economy to run hotOther links relevant to the conversation include:Powell announces new Fed approach to inflation that could keep rates lower for longerBoskin Commission ReportFRED yield curve data showing steepening yield curve over late 2020/early 2021, as longer-term rates/yields (e.g. 10-year Treasury bond yield) increase relative to shorter-term rates (e.g. Federal Funds Rate)Michael Knox on Quantitative Easing as a long-term strategyRobert Heller's 1976 paper on International reserves, money, and global inflation

John Locke on Freedom and Why Monetarism Ignores History

The Supply Side

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 16, 2021 16:29

In today's episode I cover John Locke's thoughts on political control, the latest round of lockdowns and why The Fed seems to have ignored everything Japan learned about monetarism in 2002. At what point does it simply no loner work to keep printing money? What happens when unemployment rises at the same time as incomes are skyrocketing? What strange times we inhabit! In this episode we also explore some interesting stats from Wolf Richter on what we can expect in the post-covid 'New Normal.'

history freedom japan new normal fed john locke monetarism wolf richter

Evan Kuo - Ampleforth $AMPL - Monetarism

Bitcoin Radio

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 4, 2021 47:36

Evan Kuo, Co-Founder at Ampleforth, sits down with Yonah Hochhauser from REIMAGINE 2020 to talk about elastic commodities, Monetarism, & the crucial role that AMPL will play in the future of the world economy. Twitter Evan Kuo: https://twitter.com/evankuo Twitter Ampleforth: https://twitter.com/ampleforthorg Facebook Ampleforth: https://www.facebook.com/ampleforthprotocol/ LinkedIn Ampleforth: https://www.linkedin.com/company/ampleforth Website Ampleforth: https://www.ampleforth.org

co founders reimagine ampl ampleforth monetarism

240. Is central bank independence a thing of the past? (preview)

Debunking Economics - the podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 27, 2021 9:57

Remember a time when central banks pretended to be independent, insulated from day-to-day politics? That had all but disappeared before COVID, but the pandemic was the final nail in the coffin of central bank independence. Instead, they have been colluding with governments to provide the mechanism to issue more public sector debt. Monetarism can’t resolve this crisis, so central banks’ usual tools are worthless. This week Phil Dobbie asks Prof Steve Keen whether this new arrangement, where the central banks and the treasury collude, is here to stay? If the government can use money creation to develop policies to build jobs and control inflation, what’s left for the central banks? To hear the full version subscribe by picking a plan in the right column of the Debunking Economics website (not the mobile app). Or become a supporter at https://www.patreon.com/ProfSteveKeen

covid-19 independence central banks monetarism debunking economics phil dobbie prof steve keen

Adam Smith and Margaret Thatcher with Dr Eamonn Butler

Economics Explained

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 2, 2020 33:07

Economics Explored host Gene Tunny speaks with Adam Smith Institute Director Dr Eamonn Butler about the values and lessons of Adam Smith (the great Scottish philosopher and founder of economics), the depiction of Margaret Thatcher in Netflix's season 4 of The Crown, and price controls. Here's a link to the book on price controls Dr Butler co-authored:Forty Centuries of Wage and Price Controls: How Not to Fight Inflation

netflix uk government economics crown scottish butler wage margaret thatcher adam smith free markets neoliberalism eamonn thecrown monetarism

Austrian Theory and Monetarism

Financial bubbles, crashes and crises

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 5, 2020 46:00

In this episode we discuss the main ideas as well as the usefulness of Austrian economic theory and monetarism in understanding financial crises. Our guest is liberal economist, writer and member of The Mont Pellerin Society, Lars Peder Nordbakken, Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

acast austrian monetarism austrian theory

Binyamin Appelbaum on The Economists’ Hour: False Prophets, Free Markets, and the Fracture of Society

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 17, 2019 58:06

Binyamin Appelbaum is the lead writer on business and economics for the editorial board of The New York Times, and he was previously a Washington correspondent for The Times covering the Federal Reserve and other aspects of economic policy. Binyamin is also a returning guest to the show, and joins today to talk about his new book, *The Economists’ Hour: False Prophets, Free Markets, and the Fracture of Society*. David and Binyamin also discuss Milton Friedman’s influence on economic thought during the postwar era, the history of the emergence of supply side economics, and the consequences that have arisen from committing too strongly to free market principles. Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/11182019/binyamin-appelbaum-economists%E2%80%99-hour-false-prophets-free-markets-and Binyamin’s Twitter: @BCAppelbaum Binyamin’s New York Times profile: https://www.nytimes.com/by/binyamin-appelbaum Related Links: *The Economists’ Hour: False Prophets, Free Markets, and the Fracture of Society* by Binyamin Appelbaum https://www.littlebrown.com/titles/binyamin-appelbaum/the-economists-hour/9780316512329/ *Secrets of the Temple: How the Federal Reserve Runs the Country* by William Greider https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Secrets-of-the-Temple/William-Greider/9780671675561 *More from Less: The Surprising Story of How We Learned to Prosper Using Fewer Resources - and What Happens Next* by Andrew McAfee https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/More-from-Less/Andrew-McAfee/9781982103576 David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Henry Curr on Inflation, the Phillips Curve, and A New Monetarism

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Play Episode Listen Later Nov 3, 2019 63:41

Henry Curr is the economics editor for The Economist magazine, and the author of a special report by the magazine on the phenomenon of low inflation now facing the global economy. Henry joins the show today to outline this report and the big questions surrounding low inflation. David and Curr also discuss the persistent low inflation of the present around the globe, why the Phillips Curve has broken down as a policy tool, and how technology may be causing inflation to miss its target set by central banks. Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/11042019/henry-curr-inflation-phillips-curve-and-new-monetarism Henry’s Twitter: @Henry_Curr Henry’s Economist profile: https://mediadirectory.economist.com/people/henry-curr/ Related Links: *Inflation is Losing its Meaning as an Economic Indicator* A Special Report by Henry Curr (note that this link includes many of the various pieces discussed during the episode) https://www.economist.com/special-report/2019/10/10/inflation-is-losing-its-meaning-as-an-economic-indicator *Alexa, How Much is it? Technology is Making Inflation Statistics an Unreliable Guide to the Economy* by Henry Curr https://www.economist.com/special-report/2019/10/10/technology-is-making-inflation-statistics-an-unreliable-guide-to-the-economy *Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies: Evolution, Drivers, and Policies* Edited by Jongrim Ha, M. Ayhan Kose, and Franziska Ohnsorge https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/publication/inflation-in-emerging-and-developing-economies David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Jim Dorn on the History of Monetary Policy in Washington D.C. and its Future

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Play Episode Listen Later Sep 29, 2019 56:56

Jim Dorn is the Vice President for Monetary Studies at the Cato Institute and is the director of Cato’s annual Monetary Policy Conference. Jim has written widely on Federal Reserve policy and monetary reform, and has also edited more than 10 books including *The Search for Stable Money* and *The Future of Money in the Information Age*. He joins the show today to talk about the history of monetary policy in Washington D.C. over the past four decades as well as some of his own recent work. David and Jim also discuss the issues covered at the most recent Cato Institute monetary policy conference, the recent mystery of low inflation, and Jim’s idea of an optimal monetary policy regime. Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/10022019/jim-dorn-history-monetary-policy-washington-dc-and-its-future Jim’s Cato Institute profile: https://www.cato.org/people/james-dorn Related Links: Registration for the Cato Institute Monetary Policy Conference: https://www.cato.org/events/37th-annual-monetary-conference *The Search for Stable Money: Essays on Monetary Reform* edited by James Dorn and Anna Schwartz https://www.amazon.com/Search-Stable-Money-Essays-Monetary/dp/0226158292 *The Future of Money in the Information Age* edited by James Dorn https://www.amazon.com/Future-Money-Information-Age/dp/1882577523 *the Political Economy of Inflation* by Fritz Machlup https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/serials/files/cato-journal/1983/5/cj3n1-3.pdf *Has Monetarism Failed?* by Karl Brunner https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/803d/c8632bec26142f4c6b54f9e692c6acf2fe72.pdf *Should the Fed Be Constrained?* by Jeffrey Frankel https://www.cato.org/cato-journal/springsummer-2019/should-fed-be-constrained *Improving the Monetary Regime: The Case for U.S. Digital Cash* by Michael Bordo and Andrew Levin https://www.cato.org/cato-journal/springsummer-2019/improving-monetary-regime-case-us-digital-cash David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

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Philip Lowe Faces Parliament

Heise Says

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 8, 2019 18:49

Reserve Bank Governor Dr Philip Lowe Faced the Parliamentary Economics Committee in Canberra and was challenged on the recent rate cuts and the future of the Australian economy. The more I learn about Monetarism, the less confidence I have.

Australian Interest Rate Unchanged

Heise Says

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 6, 2019 17:41

The RBA has kept the cash rate unchanged at 1.00%. While our Reserve Bank Governor, Philip Lowe, states that the global economy remains reasonable and predicts growth for Australia, I am wondering if he is in a Monetarism bubble?

australia australian interest rates rba unchanged philip lowe reserve bank of australia monetarism

Episode 8 - UBI, Yang, Romanticism, and the Deontological/Consequentialist Divide

Dress Shoes You Can Fight In

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 19, 2019 87:28

This is a long ride. How does shitting on UBI and a jobs guarantee lead to the core divide between deontological anarchists and consequentialist libertarians???? Try our cebiche!

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556 Monetary Concepts

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Play Episode Listen Later Feb 28, 2019 2:13

Politics & Philosophy

555 Golden Aristocracy

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Play Episode Listen Later Feb 26, 2019 2:23

Politics & Philosophy

107 - Michael Darda on Inflation, Market Monetarism, and Fed Policy

Play Episode Listen Later May 21, 2018 61:34

Michael Darda is a chief economist and market strategist at MKM Partners. Michael is also a frequent guest on financial television and radio and is routinely quoted in “The Wall Street Journal”, “The New York Times”, “Barron’s”, and other financial publications. He joins the show today to talk about his work conducting macroeconomic market research as well as his views on the market itself. David and Michael also discuss his shift from supply-side economics to market monetarism, the Fed’s performance during and after the Great Recession, and the potential effects of a flattening Treasury yield curve. David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Michael’s MKM Partners profile: http://www.mkmpartners.com/research/ Michael’s Bloomberg profile: https://www.bloomberg.com/research/stocks/private/person.asp?personId=48822180&privcapId=40334090

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376 Savings

politics philosophy humor savings keynesianism monetarism

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 6, 2018 2:21

Politics & Philosophy

87 - Stephen Williamson on New Monetarism and Neo-Fisherism

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 11, 2017 66:40

Stephen Williamson is a professor of economics at the University of Western Ontario and formerly served as a vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Today, Steve joins the show to discuss his work on “New Monetarism,” a research agenda emerging out of the monetarist tradition associated with Milton Friedman. David and Steve also discuss “Neo-Fisherism,” a counterintuitive view that higher interest rates may actually lead to higher inflation. David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com Macro Musings podcast site: macromusings.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Stephen Williamson’s University of Western Ontario profile: http://economics.uwo.ca/people/faculty/williamson.html Stephen Williamson’s blog “New Monetarism”: http://newmonetarism.blogspot.com/ Stephen Williamson’s Twitter: @1954swilliamson Related links: “New Monetarist Economics: Models* by Stephen D. Williamson and Randall Wright https://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/sr/sr443.pdf “Neo-Fisherism: A Radical Idea, or the Most Obvious Solution to the Low-Inflation Problem?” by Stephen D. Williamson https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/july-2016/neo-fisherism-a-radical-idea-or-the-most-obvious-solution-to-the-low-inflation-problem *Macroeconomics* by Stephen D. Williamson https://www.amazon.com/Macroeconomics-5th-Stephen-D-Williamson/dp/0132991330

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245 Monetarism

politics philosophy humor economics monetarism

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 17, 2017 2:36

Politics & Philosophy

Bob Murphy: Where Monetarism Goes Wrong

The Human Action Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later May 12, 2017

The great Austrian economist Friedrich Hayek celebrated a birthday earlier this week, while the prominent monetarist (and Fed historian) Allan Meltzer passed away the same day. Joining us to discuss monetarism is our friend Bob Murphy, who lays out the central tenets of the Chicago school and its godfather Milton Friedman. At its heart, Bob explains, monetarism is a cousin of Keynesianism—one advocates fiscal stimulus, the other monetary stimulus. Both go astray when it comes to money, and both fail to see the trees in the macro forest. Bob explains why in this great discussion of the differences between the Austrian and Chicago schools.

chicago fed austrian goes wrong us economy milton friedman friedrich hayek bob murphy keynesianism monetary theory monetarism other schools of thought allan meltzer

<![CDATA[Bob Murphy: Where Monetarism Goes Wrong]]>

The Human Action Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later May 12, 2017

The great Austrian economist Friedrich Hayek celebrated a birthday earlier this week, while the prominent monetarist (and Fed historian) Allan Meltzer passed away the same day. Joining us to discuss monetarism is our friend Bob Murphy, who lays out the central tenets of the Chicago school and its godfather Milton Friedman. At its heart, Bob explains, monetarism is a cousin of Keynesianism—one advocates fiscal stimulus, the other monetary stimulus. Both go astray when it comes to money, and both fail to see the trees in the macro forest. Bob explains why in this great discussion of the differences between the Austrian and Chicago schools.]]>

chicago fed austrian goes wrong us economy milton friedman friedrich hayek bob murphy keynesianism monetary theory monetarism other schools of thought allan meltzer

Bob Murphy: Where Monetarism Goes Wrong

The Human Action Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later May 12, 2017

The great Austrian economist Friedrich Hayek celebrated a birthday earlier this week, while the prominent monetarist (and Fed historian) Allan Meltzer passed away the same day. Joining us to discuss monetarism is our friend Bob Murphy, who lays out the central tenets of the Chicago school and its godfather Milton Friedman. At its heart, Bob explains, monetarism is a cousin of Keynesianism—one advocates fiscal stimulus, the other monetary stimulus. Both go astray when it comes to money, and both fail to see the trees in the macro forest. Bob explains why in this great discussion of the differences between the Austrian and Chicago schools.

chicago fed austrian goes wrong us economy milton friedman friedrich hayek bob murphy keynesianism monetary theory monetarism other schools of thought allan meltzer

Yellen review & the switch to fiscal dominance - Tip TV

TipTV Business

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 15, 2017 10:18

Is the March Fed rate hike back on the table? - Watch Zak Mir and Ben Kumar discuss Fed's Mon Pol. Ben Kumar from 7IM caught with Tip TV's Zak Mir to discuss Yellen’s tough talk on the interest rate and whether it represents the end of the era of central bank dominance. Yellen said yesterday that it would be unwise to delay the rate hike and added that the rate hike path isn’t dependent on the fiscal plan. That surely sounds hawkish. Kumar and Mir agree that the switch from Monetarism to Fiscalism is indeed happening. Also discussed in this segment is The Coe report on Russell 2000 Oanda forex market sentiment Trade idea - Buy GlaxoSmithKline Broker Recommendations #Fed, #Yellen, #interestrate, #Trump, #fiscalstimulus, #monetary #policy, #ratehike, #centralbanks, #macro, #markets, #equities, #forex, #commodities, #technicals, #investing, #trading

donald trump switch dominance fiscal mir kumar yellen coe monetarism march fed 7im

Room for upside shocks to global growth - Mint Partners

TipTV Business

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 19, 2017 7:17

Tip TV viewers… do you fear Trump Presidency is the end of globalisation or the dawn of a new era of globalisation? Bill Blain, Strategist at Mint Partners, believes the rise of populism across the globe does not mark an end of globalisation, but is merely a hiccup in globalisation… a learning moment that shall open doors for an upside shocks in terms of global growth this year. Blain is optimistic about Trump Presidency and explains. #Trump, #monetarism, #fiscalstimulus, #US, #UK, #economics, #macro, #globalisation, #populism, #Trump

donald trump uk economics partners strategist macro mint upside shocks populism trump presidency globalisation blain global growth monetarism

17 - Brad DeLong on Hamiltonian Political Economy and American Economic History

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 1, 2016 46:27

J. Bradford DeLong – professor of economics at UC-Berkeley, research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, and a deputy assistant secretary of the U.S. Treasury during Bill Clinton’s presidency – joins the show to discuss his new book, “Concrete Economics: The Hamilton Approach to Economic Growth and Policy.” Brad’s book, co-authored with Stephen Cohen, argues that rather than relying on abstract theory, Hamilton economics is based on facts that demonstrate how the American economy has benefited from pragmatic government policies throughout its history. David and Brad also discuss Brad’s education at Harvard and how he is a “speed reader”! David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/ Brad DeLong’s blog: http://delong.typepad.com/ Brad DeLong’s UC Berkeley profile https://www.econ.berkeley.edu/faculty/812 David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Brad DeLong’s Twitter: @DeLong Related links "Concrete Economics: The Hamilton Approach to Economic Growth and Policy (2016)" by Stephen S. Cohen and J. Bradford DeLong https://www.amazon.com/Concrete-Economics-Hamilton-Approach-Economic/dp/1422189813 "The End of Influence: What Happens When Other Countries Have the Money" by Stephen S. Cohen and J. Bradford DeLong (2010) https://www.amazon.com/End-Influence-Happens-Other-Countries/dp/B004MKLS28 Brad DeLong’s Journal of Economics article, “The Triumph of Monetarism?” (2000) https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.14.1.83

David Jensen: LBMA Running Out of Physical Gold & Silver?

Wall St For Main St

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 16, 2016 51:25

Jason Burack of Wall St for Main St interviewed returning guest, precious metals expert & paid consultant for the gold & silver mining industry, David Jensen. David is also a follower of Austrian School Economics. Before they discuss David's newest article, Jason first asks David about his opinion of the global economy through his Austrian School lens. David and Jason talk about the problems with Keynesian Economics and how Keynesianism and Monetarism have created enormous debt and economic problems the global economy can next longer handle. Next, Jason asks David to discuss his newest article, which is available here: http://www.safehaven.com/article... Jason and David discuss gold and silver manipulation and the state of the gold and silver mining industry.

running gold wall street silver main st austrian school keynesianism keynesian economics david jensen lbma monetarism jason burack

11 - Robert Hetzel on Milton Friedman, the Monetarist-Keynesian Debate, and the 2008 Crisis

crisis debate great recession milton friedman keynesian hetzel monetarism

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 20, 2016 54:43

Robert Hetzel is a senior economist and research advisor at the Richmond Federal Reserve Bank where he has worked since 1975. He joins the show to discuss the rise of monetarism and how Milton Friedman, his dissertation advisor, shaped his thinking on macroeconomics. Monetarism challenged the conventional Keynesian consensus in the 1970s and caused Keynesians to reformulate their views into a new doctrine called, “New Keynesianism.” However, in the wake of the Great Recession, “Old Keynesianism” has made a comeback. Hetzel pushes back against the Keynesian resurgence and explores other explanations of the 2008 crisis. David's blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/ David's Twitter: https://twitter.com/DavidBeckworth Robert Hetzel's biography: https://www.richmondfed.org/research/economists/bios/hetzel_bio Related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/~/media/richmondfedorg/publications/research/economic_quarterly/2012/q2/pdf/hetzel.pdf https://www.richmondfed.org/~/media/richmondfedorg/publications/research/economic_quarterly/2009/spring/pdf/hetzel2.pdf https://www.amazon.com/Program-Monetary-Stability-Milton-Friedman/dp/0823203719

Dr. Joseph Salerno: Another Major Bust Coming Soon

Wall St For Main St

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 26, 2015 46:16

Jason Burack of Wall St for Main St had on first time guest, Professor of Economics at Pace University, Academic VP of the Mises Institute https://mises.org/ and author of Money: Sound & Unsound, Dr. Joseph Salerno https://mises.org/profile/joseph-t-sa...During this 40+ minute discussion, Jason asks Dr. Salerno about the difference between the Austrian School of Economics, Keynesian Economics, Monetarism and Marxism. Dr Salerno summarizes these economic schools. Next, Jason asks Dr. Salerno, which Austrian School of Economics books beginners who are curious should start with?Jason then asks Joseph about Keynes and Keynesian Economics and why Keynesian Economics is largely to blame for the global economic problems we are experiencing. Jason then asks Dr. Salerno about the Austrian True Money Supply or TMS, which is something Dr. Salerno invented with Murray Rothbard to to track monetary supply growth or inflation. Despite the mainstream financial media, Wall St, the Federal Reserve and academic Keynesians should about only deflation occurring right now, the TMS shows the money supply still growing at over 8%! There's now monthly articles on the Mises website tracking TMS growth or monetary inflation in the US https://mises.org/blog/true-money-sup...Jason and Dr. Salerno also discuss if real deflation for a prolonged period of time will be allowed without further intervention, why Austrians are able to see asset bubbles and credit bubbles coming years in advance with an inevitable bust after a boom, and why capitalism and free markets will still be blamed for problems in the economy despite the fact there's no free markets. Many more exciting things are discussed in this excellent interview! If you love Austrian School of Economics or are curious about learning more about this school of thought and perspective, this is a great interview for that.

Ep. 361 Against Market Monetarism and NGDP Targeting

The Tom Woods Show

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 18, 2015 25:15

About the Guest Joseph T. Salerno is academic vice president of the and a professor of economics at Pace University. Festschrift (PDF) Guest’s Book Guest’s Twitter Articles Mentioned “” by Shawn Ritenour “,” by Joseph T. Salerno

market targeting salerno pace university festschrift monetarism shawn ritenour joseph t salerno

Mexico: Oil Giant

mexico revolution giant oil milton friedman carstens monetarism

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 24, 2013 10:51

Milton Friedman as Dr. Carstens residing as head of Mexican Central Bank leads domestic reforms unleashing Oil Revolution.

Mexican Monetarism & Superpower Status

mexico barack obama mexican status superpowers monetary monetarism

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 14, 2013 5:50

Brief look at how the Mexican Central Bank is implementing Milton Friedman's Monetarist policy to achieve superpower status.

Oil Shocks, Monetarism, Weak $

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 26, 2013 6:00

Remember the gasoline shortages of the very early 1970's. The American public often thought of the "OPEC OIL CRISIS" as a policy failure punishing the Americans's for supporting an Israeli ally. This podcast reveals that Monetarist thought saw the "crisis" differently.

american israel americans israelis weak oil shocks opec monetarism

Mexico: An Emerging Middle Class

mexico mexican emerging middle class milton friedman reaganite monetarism

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 22, 2013 11:18

Brief look at how Mexican political leaders are implementing the Reaganite policy mix of sequencing monetary/fiscal goals liberalizing a resurgent emerging Mexican Middle Class.

Monetarism Defeats Keynesianism