Podcasts about ecmwf

Dall'esplosione di Starship al secondo lancio di Ariane 6 all'allunaggio di due lander, è stata una settimana ricca di novità per l'esplorazione spaziale, come ci racconta Luigi Bignami, giornalista scientifico ed esperto di Spazio.Siamo stati al DAMA, il tecnopolo di Bologna che continua a crescere. Oltre al supercomputer europeo Leonardo di Cineca (nono al mondo), al Data Center del Centro europeo per le previsioni meteorologiche a medio termine (Ecmwf) e ad alcuni progetti di ricerca curati dall'Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare e da Fondazione Icsc (Centro nazionale di supercalcolo), è atteso anche un nuovo supercalcolatore progettato specificamente per l'IA che sarà 10 volte più potente di Leonardo, come spiega Alessandra Poggiani, direttrice generale di Cineca.Restiamo all'interno del Tecnopolo per incontrare Carlo Cacciamani, direttore di Italia Meteo, la nuova agenzia civile nazionale per le previsioni meteo. Con lui facciamo chiarezza sulle capacità previsionali dei servizi meteo e facciamo ordine sui servizi, le tecnologie utilizzate e i dati offerti dai vari soggetti, pubblici e privati, che sviluppano previsioni meteorologiche. Parliamo di Fulcrum Project, un modello di cloud federato basato sulla cooperazione promosso dalla Intercloud Exchange Foundation. Ne parliamo con il vicepresidente Emile Chalouhi.Infine, parliamo di come l'IA può essere usata per offrire consulenze finanziarie a piccoli e medi risparmiatori. Intervistiamo Federico Quarato, co-fondatore e amministratore delegato di Klear Finance, startup che ha recentemente chiuso un round di investimento del valore di un milione di euro.E come sempre, Digital News, le notizie di tecnologia e innovazione più importanti della settimana.

Inside Europe's Weather and Climate Monitoring: Exclusive with Dr. Richard EngelenJoin Torsten Kriening for an insightful episode featuring Dr. Richard Engelen, Deputy Director of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Services (CAMS) at the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF). Recorded live in Bremen at OHB, we discuss the role of ECMWF in providing top-tier weather forecasts and its integration with European space and environmental programs like Copernicus. Discover how satellite data is pivotal for weather and air quality predictions, the novel advancements of the Sentinel-4 and MTG-S satellites, and future projects including greenhouse gas emissions monitoring. This episode dives deep into European collaborative efforts to enhance climate and atmospheric monitoring services.Useful Links:MTG-S Event in BremenWMO Page for MTG-S1Space Café Radio brings you talks, interviews, and reports from the team of SpaceWatchers while out on the road. Each episode has a specific topic, unique content, and a personal touch. Enjoy the show, and let us know your thoughts at radio@spacewatch.globalWe love to hear from you. Send us your thought, comments, suggestions, love lettersYou can find us on: Spotify and Apple Podcast!Please visit us at SpaceWatch.Global, subscribe to our newsletters. Follow us on LinkedIn and X!

NIWA has recently released their annual climate summary for 2024, which shows that last year was New Zealand's tenth warmest year on record. Of the top ten warmest years on record, eight of these have occurred in the past twelve years. The report shows that these rising temperatures, which are in line with global trends, are largely due to climate change caused by humans. As well as this, this comes as Copernicus, ECMWF, and NASA are expected to release their annual climate summary, which is expected to show that 2024 was the Earth's warmest year on record. News and Editorial Director, and Monday Wire Host, Joel, spoke to Principal Scientist at GNS Science, Dr Nick Cradock-Henry, about this report, and what this report means for 2025. They started off by asking him about the rapidness in temperatures seen in the report in prior years.

NIWA has recently released their annual climate summary for 2024, which shows that last year was New Zealand's tenth warmest year on record. Of the top ten warmest years on record, eight of these have occurred in the past twelve years. The report shows that these rising temperatures, which are in line with global trends, are largely due to climate change caused by humans. As well as this, this comes as Copernicus, ECMWF, and NASA are expected to release their annual climate summary, which is expected to show that 2024 was the Earth's warmest year on record. News and Editorial Director, and Monday Wire Host, Joel, spoke to Principal Scientist at GNS Science, Dr Nick Cradock-Henry, about this report, and what this report means for 2025. They started off by asking him about the rapidness in temperatures seen in the report in prior years.

Get the latest insights from the AAMBITION Podcast delivered straight to your inbox. Subscribe HERE.++++Episode 42 of the “Aerospace Ambition Podcast” featuring Prof. Ulrich Schumann (DLR) is out!Talking PointsInfluential Mentors and Career Journey: Ulrich reflects on formative mentorships, including ties to Werner Heisenberg, and a career spanning fluid dynamics, turbulence, and contrail science.Contrail Science Essentials: An accessible explanation of contrail formation, persistence, and their climate impact, including the Schmidt Appleman Criterion and radiative effects.Advances in Contrail Research: Key milestones in understanding contrails, evolving public discourse on aviation's non-CO2 effects, and debates shaped by influential studies.Contrail Prediction Models: Insights into CoCiP's framework, integration with pycontrails, and advancements through observational datasets and modeling techniques.Future of Contrail Management: Exploring bold visions for contrail mitigation, trial strategies, and the role of contrail science in sustainable aviation.GuestProf. Dr. Ulrich Schumann is a world leading expert in atmospheric physics. He earned his doctorate in Turbulence in 1973, was Director of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics at DLR the German Aerospace Center from 1982 until 2012, and now lectures on aviation climate impact at Technical University Munich.Professor Schumann is widely known for his seminal works on contrail science, contributing to the 1999 IPCC report and developing the contrail cirrus prediction tool CoCiP. He has also cooperated on various aviation research projects with the FAA, EUROCONTROL, NATS, ECMWF, airlines and engine industry.

Google frappe fort dans le domaine de la météorologie. Sa dernière innovation, l'IA GenCast, développée par DeepMind, promet des prévisions météo d'une précision inégalée, jusqu'à 15 jours à l'avance. Un bond technologique qui pourrait jouer un rôle crucial face à la recrudescence des catastrophes climatiques. Publiée dans la prestigieuse revue Nature, cette avancée dépasse les performances du Centre européen de prévisions météorologiques à moyen terme (ECMWF), considéré jusqu'alors comme la référence mondiale. Testé sur 1 320 désastres climatiques répertoriés en 2019, GenCast a surpassé l'ECMWF dans 97 % des cas. Mais la véritable révolution réside dans la rapidité d'exécution. Là où les systèmes actuels nécessitent plusieurs heures pour produire des prévisions, GenCast n'a besoin que de huit minutes. Basé sur quatre décennies de données climatiques (de 1979 à 2018), le modèle s'appuie sur des paramètres clés comme la température, la vitesse du vent et la pression atmosphérique. Les conséquences pourraient être majeures : mieux anticiper les vagues de chaleur meurtrières, comme celle qui a tué 21 personnes au Maroc cet été, ou encore les ouragans dévastateurs, à l'image d'Helene, qui a causé 237 décès en Floride en septembre. Les incendies de forêt, comme ceux d'Hawaï ayant fait une centaine de victimes, pourraient également être mieux maîtrisés grâce à des alertes précoces. Google insiste sur les capacités de GenCast à prévoir les extrêmes climatiques : chaleurs records, froids polaires et vents violents. Une avancée technologique qui pourrait révolutionner les dispositifs d'alerte et limiter les pertes humaines. Face à un climat de plus en plus imprévisible, cette IA montre que la science peut encore anticiper, et peut-être, protéger. Une innovation qui rappelle l'urgence d'investir dans des outils capables de répondre aux défis du réchauffement climatique. Hébergé par Acast. Visitez acast.com/privacy pour plus d'informations.

Dopo qualche settimana di pausa (impegnato in diverse attività nei vigneti di tutta Italia e fuori), domani riprendo le nostre conversazioni viticole. Sarà con noi l'enologo Ramon Persello, esperto di agrometeorologia e cambiamenti climatici. In questa diretta discuteremo le seguenti tematiche importanti per prepararci alla vendemmia 2024: 1. Situazione attuale meteo: - Analisi delle condizioni meteo a Capanna Margherita (4600m) - L'effetto delle Estati Algerine sul nostro territorio - Analizzeremo cosa è accaduto negli ultimi 42 giorni in alcune DOC italiane, valutando le precipitazioni, le temperature medie assolute e le differenze rispetto alla media storica. Inoltre, esamineremo il numero di giornate con temperature massime superiori ai 30 e 35 gradi. 2. Maturazione tecnologica e fisiologica delle uve. Esploreremo come l'evoluzione della maturazione delle uve influenzerà le prossime decisioni enologiche, in particolare la scelta della data di vendemmia. Analizzeremo i parametri chiave come zuccheri, acidità, pH e azoto alfa-amminico, fondamentali per il decorso fermentativo. 3. Previsioni meteo per agosto: sulla base dell'analisi dei 9 panel ECMWF, discuteremo le previsioni meteorologiche per le prossime settimane, un periodo cruciale per la vendemmia in tutta Italia. La tanto paventata perturbazione che doveva smorzare il caldo sull'Italia non si materializzerà, in quanto si isolerà in una goccia fredda a est della Spagna, richiamando correnti calde e umide dall'Africa, che scorreranno sul suo bordo orientale, portando il caldo specialmente sulle regioni del Nord. 4. Infine, parleremo della maturazione del legno e delle riserve energetiche della vite, elementi cruciali per la salute delle piante e la preparazione alla prossima stagione. Buon ascolto, Giovanni Bigot

Érkeznek a szivárgások a Samsung Galaxy Tab S10-ről Android Portál     2024-07-24 08:31:31     Mobiltech Samsung Android Mindkét Samsung Galaxy Tab S10 táblagép a Dimensity 9300+ chipsetet fogja használni, és a Tab S10 Ultra eredménye is felbukkant. A közelmúltban nyilvánosságra került Geekbench tesztekből kiderül, hogy a Samsung Galaxy Tab S10 Ultra a Dimensity 9300+ chipsettel fog érkezni, amely kiváló teljesítményt ígér. A táblagép 12 GB RAM-mal és Android 14 oper Története legnagyobb felvásárlására készült a Google anyavállalata, de 23 milliárd dollár sem volt elég, hogy célt érjenek Rakéta     2024-07-24 06:06:04     Infotech Google Az Alphabet Magyarország éves költségvetésének csaknem az ötödét ajánlotta a Wizért, de annak tulajdonosai visszautasították az ajánlatot. Tényleg jobb a környezetnek a vegán étrend? PlanetZ     2024-07-24 08:10:36     Tudomány Élelmiszer Vegetarianizmus Vegán Az elmúlt években egyre nagyobb figyelmet kapott a vita arról, hogy a vegán étrend jobb-e a környezet számára. Az éghajlatváltozással és a fenntartható élelmiszertermeléssel kapcsolatos aggodalmak erősödésével egyre fontosabbá válik annak megértése, hogy az étrendünkkel kapcsolatos döntéseink hogyan hatnak a bolygóra. Különböző forgatókönyveket ele Ősi bevásárlólistát találtak 24.hu     2024-07-24 04:40:32     Tudomány Földrengés A tábla az időszámításunk előtti 15. századból származik, és egy földrengést követő helyreállítás során találtak rá. Az MI-vel még pontosabb lesz az időjárás-előrejelzés ITBusiness     2024-07-24 07:07:24     Infotech Google ECMWF A Google MI-csoportja és az Ecmwf bemutatták a NeuralGCM-et, egy olyan rendszert, amely az MI-paraméterezést és a fizikára épülő atmoszférikus keringést ötvözi. A NeuralGCM számítási szempontból hatékony, és jól teljesít az időjárás-előrejelzési teszteken. Jelenleg a világ legjobb időjáráselőrejelző-modellje a Középtávú Időjárás-előrejelzések Európ George mindig kéznél van Digital Hungary     2024-07-24 11:53:00     Infotech Erste Indulása óta nagyban hozzájárult a bankolási szokások átalakulásához, emberközelibbé tette a pénzügyek intézését George, az Erste digitális platformja. A banknál a digitálisan aktív ügyfelek 87 százaléka ma már mobilon intézi pénzügyeit, az Erste ezért folyamatosan bővíti az online igényelhető termékek körét. Az ügyfelek ma már számos szolgáltatásh A Xiaomi bemutatta a MIX Fold 4 okostelefont Mínuszos     2024-07-24 10:33:17     Mobiltech Telefon Okostelefon Xiaomi A Xiaomi bemutatta az új MIX Fold 4 telefonját, amely számos újítással rendelkezik mind az általános felépítés, mind a zsanér, mind pedig az akkumulátor terén. Kivételesen vékonyra tervezték, ám a megjelenés nem megy az erősség vagy a konfiguráció rovására. Új eredmények a súly és a sokoldalúság terén. A könnyű, összecsukható Letölthetővé vált a Meta ChatGPT-4 szintű nagy nyelvi modellje ICT Global     2024-07-24 10:32:29     Infotech Mesterséges intelligencia ChatGPT A saját felhasználásra teljesen szabadon letölthető nagy nyelvi modellt a tegnapi napon engedte ki a Meta az open source jegyében. Megjelent és ingyenesen használható a Meta felturbózott MI-je Bitport     2024-07-24 09:42:00     Infotech Mesterséges intelligencia A cég közlése szerint a Llama 3.1 405B hasonló szintet képvisel, mint a versenytársak jelenleg elérhető legerősebb modelljei. Komoly szigorítást vezet be a Galaxy telefonokon a Samsung PC Fórum     2024-07-24 08:00:00     Mobiltech Telefon Samsung Azok a Galaxy készüléktulajdonosok, akik frissítik telefonjaikat a Samsung One UI rendszerének legfrissebb verziójára, egy új korlátozással találhatják szembe magukat, ha megpróbálnak külső forrásból alkalmazásokat felrakni az eszközre. A One UI 6.1.1-től kezdődően ugyanis a rendszer nemes egyszerűséggel nem fogja megengedni ezt nekik, hanem ehelye Elon Musk lerántotta a leplet a Kamala Harrisről áradozó médiáról Magyar Nemzet     2024-07-24 08:40:34     Külföld Elon Musk A milliárdos üzletember szerint azok, akik még pár hete arról beszéltek, hogy a bukott Bidennel minden rendben van, most Kamala Harrist dicsérik. Megszületett a megállapodás Kapu Tibor magyar űrhajós felküldéséről Telex     2024-07-23 23:07:25     Tudomány Világűr Űrállomás Kapu Tibor Az asztronauta 14 napos kutatómunkát végez majd a Nemzetközi Űrállomáson, de azt még nem tudni, hogy pontosan mikor küldik fel. Sikeres teszten van túl a SpaceX űrsétákhoz kifejlesztett szkafandere Rakéta     2024-07-24 09:03:09     Tudomány Világűr SpaceX A várhatóan július végén induló Polaris Down misszió nem csak azért lesz különleges, mert ez lesz az első alkalom, hogy kereskedelmi küldetés ketetében asztronauták űrsétát tesznek, hanem azért is, mert itt vetik be először élesben a SpaceX erre a célra kifejlesztett űrruháját. A további adásainkat keresd a podcast.hirstart.hu oldalunkon.

Érkeznek a szivárgások a Samsung Galaxy Tab S10-ről Android Portál     2024-07-24 08:31:31     Mobiltech Samsung Android Mindkét Samsung Galaxy Tab S10 táblagép a Dimensity 9300+ chipsetet fogja használni, és a Tab S10 Ultra eredménye is felbukkant. A közelmúltban nyilvánosságra került Geekbench tesztekből kiderül, hogy a Samsung Galaxy Tab S10 Ultra a Dimensity 9300+ chipsettel fog érkezni, amely kiváló teljesítményt ígér. A táblagép 12 GB RAM-mal és Android 14 oper Története legnagyobb felvásárlására készült a Google anyavállalata, de 23 milliárd dollár sem volt elég, hogy célt érjenek Rakéta     2024-07-24 06:06:04     Infotech Google Az Alphabet Magyarország éves költségvetésének csaknem az ötödét ajánlotta a Wizért, de annak tulajdonosai visszautasították az ajánlatot. Tényleg jobb a környezetnek a vegán étrend? PlanetZ     2024-07-24 08:10:36     Tudomány Élelmiszer Vegetarianizmus Vegán Az elmúlt években egyre nagyobb figyelmet kapott a vita arról, hogy a vegán étrend jobb-e a környezet számára. Az éghajlatváltozással és a fenntartható élelmiszertermeléssel kapcsolatos aggodalmak erősödésével egyre fontosabbá válik annak megértése, hogy az étrendünkkel kapcsolatos döntéseink hogyan hatnak a bolygóra. Különböző forgatókönyveket ele Ősi bevásárlólistát találtak 24.hu     2024-07-24 04:40:32     Tudomány Földrengés A tábla az időszámításunk előtti 15. századból származik, és egy földrengést követő helyreállítás során találtak rá. Az MI-vel még pontosabb lesz az időjárás-előrejelzés ITBusiness     2024-07-24 07:07:24     Infotech Google ECMWF A Google MI-csoportja és az Ecmwf bemutatták a NeuralGCM-et, egy olyan rendszert, amely az MI-paraméterezést és a fizikára épülő atmoszférikus keringést ötvözi. A NeuralGCM számítási szempontból hatékony, és jól teljesít az időjárás-előrejelzési teszteken. Jelenleg a világ legjobb időjáráselőrejelző-modellje a Középtávú Időjárás-előrejelzések Európ George mindig kéznél van Digital Hungary     2024-07-24 11:53:00     Infotech Erste Indulása óta nagyban hozzájárult a bankolási szokások átalakulásához, emberközelibbé tette a pénzügyek intézését George, az Erste digitális platformja. A banknál a digitálisan aktív ügyfelek 87 százaléka ma már mobilon intézi pénzügyeit, az Erste ezért folyamatosan bővíti az online igényelhető termékek körét. Az ügyfelek ma már számos szolgáltatásh A Xiaomi bemutatta a MIX Fold 4 okostelefont Mínuszos     2024-07-24 10:33:17     Mobiltech Telefon Okostelefon Xiaomi A Xiaomi bemutatta az új MIX Fold 4 telefonját, amely számos újítással rendelkezik mind az általános felépítés, mind a zsanér, mind pedig az akkumulátor terén. Kivételesen vékonyra tervezték, ám a megjelenés nem megy az erősség vagy a konfiguráció rovására. Új eredmények a súly és a sokoldalúság terén. A könnyű, összecsukható Letölthetővé vált a Meta ChatGPT-4 szintű nagy nyelvi modellje ICT Global     2024-07-24 10:32:29     Infotech Mesterséges intelligencia ChatGPT A saját felhasználásra teljesen szabadon letölthető nagy nyelvi modellt a tegnapi napon engedte ki a Meta az open source jegyében. Megjelent és ingyenesen használható a Meta felturbózott MI-je Bitport     2024-07-24 09:42:00     Infotech Mesterséges intelligencia A cég közlése szerint a Llama 3.1 405B hasonló szintet képvisel, mint a versenytársak jelenleg elérhető legerősebb modelljei. Komoly szigorítást vezet be a Galaxy telefonokon a Samsung PC Fórum     2024-07-24 08:00:00     Mobiltech Telefon Samsung Azok a Galaxy készüléktulajdonosok, akik frissítik telefonjaikat a Samsung One UI rendszerének legfrissebb verziójára, egy új korlátozással találhatják szembe magukat, ha megpróbálnak külső forrásból alkalmazásokat felrakni az eszközre. A One UI 6.1.1-től kezdődően ugyanis a rendszer nemes egyszerűséggel nem fogja megengedni ezt nekik, hanem ehelye Elon Musk lerántotta a leplet a Kamala Harrisről áradozó médiáról Magyar Nemzet     2024-07-24 08:40:34     Külföld Elon Musk A milliárdos üzletember szerint azok, akik még pár hete arról beszéltek, hogy a bukott Bidennel minden rendben van, most Kamala Harrist dicsérik. Megszületett a megállapodás Kapu Tibor magyar űrhajós felküldéséről Telex     2024-07-23 23:07:25     Tudomány Világűr Űrállomás Kapu Tibor Az asztronauta 14 napos kutatómunkát végez majd a Nemzetközi Űrállomáson, de azt még nem tudni, hogy pontosan mikor küldik fel. Sikeres teszten van túl a SpaceX űrsétákhoz kifejlesztett szkafandere Rakéta     2024-07-24 09:03:09     Tudomány Világűr SpaceX A várhatóan július végén induló Polaris Down misszió nem csak azért lesz különleges, mert ez lesz az első alkalom, hogy kereskedelmi küldetés ketetében asztronauták űrsétát tesznek, hanem azért is, mert itt vetik be először élesben a SpaceX erre a célra kifejlesztett űrruháját. A további adásainkat keresd a podcast.hirstart.hu oldalunkon.

Các hiện tượng thời tiết cực đoan gây ra lũ lụt, hạn hán, cháy rừng xảy ra thường xuyên và nghiêm trọng hơn, ảnh hưởng đến các quốc gia trên toàn cầu. Để ứng phó với biến đổi khí hậu, Trí tuệ nhân tạo (AI), ngày càng được sử dụng trong nhiều lĩnh vực, được xem là giải pháp hữu hiệu, dù còn nhiều bất cập. Tại Trung Quốc, nhiều đầm lầy, sông hồ dần biến mất do tác động của hiện tượng trái đất nóng lên. Dọc theo sông Giang Tô, tại khu bảo tồn hồ Chenhu, với khoảng 11 000 héc-ta đất ngập nước, các hoạt động của con người được hạn chế, nhưng Trí tuệ nhân tạo được triển khai rộng rãi. Trong một bảo tàng sinh thái được thiết lập trong khu vực này, một căn phòng được dành riêng để bố trí các loa phát thanh và hình ảnh thu được từ 31 camera và 21 micro, được lắp đặt khắp khu bảo tồn. Một nhân viên của bảo tàng, Wehn Zhou, trả lời RFI Pháp ngữ giải thích rằng “đó là hệ thống trí tuệ nhân tạo, với một bảng điều khiển lớn, cùng các công cụ đo lường, cũng như các dữ liệu về thực vật và đất. Và sau đó là các mô-đun về âm thanh và hình ảnh…”Trí tuệ nhân tạo được sử dụng để hỗ trợ bảo vệ  khoảng 277 loài chim, 58 loài cá, động vật lưỡng cư và khoảng 30 loài động vật có vú, ẩn náu trong hệ sinh thái ngập nước ở miền trung Hoa Lục. Thay vì dùng ống nhòm như trước kia, để quan sát các loài chim, hay phải cử người đi thực địa, thì từ năm 2022, các camera và micro được lắp đặt cho phép giám sát, theo dõi các loài vật từ xa và can thiệp khi cần (nếu như có loài nào đó bị thương).Theo trang China Daily, hệ thống được tích hợp Trí tuệ nhân tạo cho phép phát hiện các loài chim đến hoặc rời đi, cũng như xác định khu vực mà các loài chim thích di chuyển đến bằng cách xác định loài thông qua tiếng chim. Hình ảnh chụp các loài chim từ camera sẽ được tự động so sánh với ảnh trong cơ sở dữ liệu có sẵn, kết hợp với âm thanh, để tăng độ chính xác khi nhận dạng loài.Khi con người ít can thiệp vào tự nhiên, nhiều loài chim mới đã được phát hiện, hoặc xuất hiện trở lại, như loài bồ nông Dalmatian quý hiếm, (chỉ khoảng 150 con ở Đông Á), hay loài hồng hạc lớn vốn không xuất hiện tại khu bảo tồn từ nhiều năm qua.AI hỗ trợ dự báo thời tiết chuẩn xác hơnTrí tuệ nhân tạo cũng được triển khai bởi các nhà khoa học ở vùng Sừng Châu Phi, khu vực thường xuyên hứng chịu các trận mưa lớn, gây ngập lụt, hay những đợt hạn hán kéo dài. Theo hãng tin AP, trí tuệ nhân tạo được sử dụng để dự báo tốt hơn, các hiện tượng thời tiết cực đoan ngày càng khó lường do biến đổi khí hậu.Hệ thống dự báo thời tiết, do Chương trình lương thực thế giới của Liên Hiệp Quốc và Google tài trợ, được phát triển bởi các nhà khoa học từ khoa vật lý, đại học Oxford của Anh Quốc, trong đó có cô Shruti Nath : “ Chúng tôi có một cách tiếp cận kết hợp, sử dụng trí tuệ nhân tạo để lấp đầy những khoảng trống trong vật lý, hoặc xử lý những dữ liệu quá phức tạp. Trí tuệ nhân tạo có thể khiến các dữ liệu đó được trình bày một cách đơn giản hơn, và cho phép dự báo gần với thực tế nhất. Cụ thể, để có thể dự báo, AI được đào tạo, nắm được các dữ liệu lịch sử về thời tiết, nhiệt độ,…, sau đó có thể đem so sánh với dữ liệu thu được từ thực tế, qua đài quan sát hoặc qua vệ tinh. Mô-đun AI mà chúng tôi tạo ra sẽ ngày càng học được nhiều hơn. Chúng tôi thậm chí còn “khen thưởng” AI, nếu đưa ra dự báo chính xác, phù hợp với thực tế quan sát được. Nếu không làm được thì AI sẽ bị phạt”. Đọc thêm : Trí tuệ nhân tạo : Một cuộc cách mạng mới trong nông nghiệp ?Theo AP, tại Anh, trong việc dự báo thời tiết, các siêu máy tính được sử dụng, có khả năng thực hiện 16 000 phép tính mỗi giây. Thế nhưng, chi phí để vận hành những siêu máy tính này và các trạm thu thập dữ liệu lại rất đắt đỏ, và không có sẵn ở các nước đang phát triển. Mô hình dự báo AI mà các nhà khoa học vật lý của đại học Oxford tạo ra thì lại có thể vận hành từ máy tính xách tay.Việc dự báo thời tiết ở Sừng Châu Phi hiện vẫn gặp nhiều khó khăn, do thời tiết thay đổi thất thường và thiếu các trạm quan sát khí tượng cũng như thu thập dữ liệu, khiến người dân vốn trong tình trạng dễ bị tổn thương có nguy cơ gặp nhiều rủi ro. Hiện mô đun nói trên vẫn còn trong quá trình thử nghiệm, nhưng có thể đưa ra dự báo trong vòng 48 giờ, và có thể gửi cảnh báo nguy hiểm qua tin nhắn, thư điện tử, và thậm chí là cả đến đài phát thanh hoặc truyền hình.Chương trình này hiện đang được thí điểm ở Kenya và Ethiopia, nếu thành công, có thể được triển khai ở những khu vực khác trên thế giới, tại những nơi thời tiết ngày càng khắc nghiệt do biến đổi khí hậu, tác động đến cuộc sống của con người.AI dự báo ô nhiễmVẫn về khí hậu, hồi tháng Sáu vừa qua, các nhà nghiên cứu về Trí tuệ nhân tạo của tập đoàn Microsoft đã cho ra mắt một mô-đun với tên gọi Aurore AI, được cho là “cách mạng hoá” việc dự báo ô nhiễm không khí, lần đầu tiên cho phép dự báo mức độ ô nhiễm trên phạm vi toàn cầu trong vòng chưa đầy một phút, theo tạp chí khoa học Nature.Matthew Chantry, nhà nghiên cứ về máy học tại Trung tâm Dự báo Thời tiết Trung bình châu Âu (ECMWF), cho biết “dự đoán ô nhiễm không khí thường phức tạp hơn nhiều so với dự báo thời tiết” và Aurora có những tính năng tiến bộ đáng kể so với mô hình dự báo trước kia.Mô-đun trí tuệ nhân tạo này có thể dự báo trên toàn cầu và không cần nhiều phép tính. Để tạo ra Aurora AI và các tính năng nói trên, các nhà khoa học đã tích hợp một kho dữ liệu khổng lồ, với hơn 1 triệu giờ dữ liệu từ 6 mô hình thời tiết và khí hậu khác nhau. Cụ thể, Aurora có thể dự báo mức độ của sáu chất gây ô nhiễm không khí chính, bao gồm carbon monoxide, nitơ oxit, sulfur dioxide, ozone và các hạt vật chất, trên toàn thế giới trong vòng chưa đầy một phút. Công nghệ này cung cấp các dự đoán về ô nhiễm trong 5 ngày và dự báo thời tiết toàn cầu trong 10 ngày với độ chính xác và hiệu quả vượt trội, với chi phí tính toán thấp hơn đáng kể so với các mô hình thông thường mà Cơ quan giám sát khí quyển Copernicus của châu Âu sử dụng. “Đồng minh của các nhà khí tượng học”Trên tạp chí của Viện nghiên cứu Polytechnique de Paris, ông Samuel Morin, giám đốc Trung tâm nghiên cứu khí tượng quốc gia Pháp (CNRM), nhận định rằng Trí tuệ nhân tạo được xem là một “đồng minh của các nhà khí tượng học”.Ông Morin nêu ra hai hai mô-đun tích hợp Trí tuệ nhân tạo, là Arome và Arpège, được cơ quan Météo-France sử dụng, để mô phỏng bầu khí quyển trên lãnh thổ Pháp và các khu vực hải ngoại cũng như của toàn bộ hành tinh.Công cụ Arome có thể giúp cải thiện khả năng dự báo ngắn hạn về các hiện tượng nguy hiểm như các trận mưa lớn, bão, sương mù ở Địa Trung Hải, hoặc nhiệt độ tăng cao tại khu vực đô thị trong các đợt nắng nóng. Công cụ này cũng cho phép thực hiện các mô phỏng với độ phân giải rất tốt, bằng cách “cắt” lớp khí quyển thành các khối nhỏ.Trí tuệ nhân tạo cũng được các nhà nghiên cứu của Pháp sử dụng để mô phỏng sự tiến hoá của sông băng từ quá khứ cho đến tương lai, để hiểu các quá trình vật lý, và qua đó, dự đoán những diễn biến có thể xảy ra trong tương lai của sông băng và tác động của chúng đối với mực nước biển dâng, tài nguyên nước và hệ sinh thái, nhất là có thể tìm ra giải pháp ứng phó với tình trạng tan băng hà do biến đổi khí hậu.Tiềm năng giúp trái đất đạt trung hòa carbonVào năm 2023, trước thềm Hội nghị khí hậu COP 28, Liên Hiệp Quốc đã thiết lập một tổ chức cố vấn về Trí tuệ nhân tạo AI Advisory Body, nhằm thúc đẩy xu hướng sử dụng máy học – machine learning, “tìm ra giải pháp cho các thánh thức chung”, “giải quyết vấn đề biến đổi khí hậu”, để nhiều chính phủ, doanh nghiệp và xã hội dân sự cùng được hưởng lợi.Ngoài các tính năng nói trên, theo trang tin của Liên Hiệp Quốc, Trí tuệ nhân tạo cũng có thể hỗ trợ phòng tránh các thảm họa khí hậu, hay hỗ trợ đạt trung hòa carbon, chẳng hạn như tự động hoá việc thu thập và phân tích dữ liệu, giúp xác định, điều chỉnh các nguồn phát thải hiệu quả hơn.Về vấn nạn thời trang nhanh, fast-fashion, AI cũng có thể can thiệp, tối ưu hóa chuỗi cung ứng để giảm lãng phí, giám sát mức tiêu thụ tài nguyên và thúc đẩy các quy trình sản xuất bền vững. Trí tuệ nhân tạo cũng có thể giúp đẩy nhanh quá trình chuyển đổi năng lượng bằng cách tối ưu hóa việc tiết kiệm và nâng cao hiệu quả trong các lĩnh vực sử dụng nhiều năng lượng.Trí tuệ nhân tạo cũng gây ô nhiễmTuy có nhiều tiềm năng lớn trong việc giải quyết các vấn đề về khí hậu, nhưng Trí tuệ nhân tạo cũng có nhiều điểm bất cập.AI gây ô nhiễm, trước tiên, là do việc sản xuất các thiết bị máy tính, chẳng hạn như chip điện tử, có thể xử lý số lượng lớn dữ liệu. AI cũng tiêu thụ rất nhiều điện. Một nghiên cứu được công bố trên tạp khí khoa học Joule chỉ ra rằng vào năm 2027, AI có thể tiêu thụ 85 đến 134 terawatt giờ (TWh), tức là mức tiêu thụ tương đương với mức tiêu thụ điện của Achentina hoặc của Thụy Điển! Theo một số nhà quan sát, được La Tribune nêu ra, mặc dù những dữ liệu này không đáng tin cậy, những vẫn giá trị làm nổi bật vấn đề ngày càng tăng về lượng khí thải carbon của các mô hình trí tuệ nhân tạo. Ví dụ, nghiên cứu của đại học California chỉ ra rằng việc huấn luyện AI cho Chat GPT-3, đã tiêu tốn 552 tấn CO2. Con số này tương đương với 205 chuyến bay khứ hồi Paris-New York bằng máy bayNgoài ra, những trung tâm dữ liệu cho AI cũng tiêu thụ một lượng lớn nước để làm mát. Các nhà nghiên cứu lo ngại rằng trong tương lai mức tiêu thụ này sẽ ảnh hưởng đến trữ lượng nước, đặc biệt trong bối cảnh hạn hán. Dĩ nhiên, giới khoa học cũng nhận thức được điều này và tìm các giải pháp giảm thiểu tác động môi trường của AI. Ví dụ, Microsoft đã làm chìm một trung tâm dữ liệu ở Bắc Hải và việc làm mát trung tâm này được cung cấp bởi dòng nước lạnh xung quanh.

Dr. Žiga Zaplotnik je asistent na Katedri za meteorologijo na Fakulteti za matematiko in fiziko Univerze v Ljubljani, ki dela kot raziskovalec na Evropskem centru za srednjeročne vremenske napovedi (ECMWF) v Bonnu, kjer se ukvarjajo z napovedjo vremena, po novem pa tudi z razvojem računalniškega modeliranja vremenskih in podnebnih vzorcev, ki bodo v prihodnje – tako vsaj upajo, poskušali odgovoriti na pogostost in intenzivnost ekstremnih vremenskih pojavov. Posledice podnebnih sprememb so že dobro vidne, vplivajo na naš vsakdan, posledično se vedno večje število ljudi zaveda obsežnosti problema. Zakaj prihaja do takšnih vremenskih odklonov in kako lahko ukrepamo s svojimi drugačnimi življenjskimi izbirami?, je bilo osrednje vprašanje pogovora.Ob Svetovnem dnevu Zemlje, ki ga obeležujemo dvaindvajsetega aprila, smo k pogovoru za poljudnejšo razlago podnebnih sprememb povabili vse bolj prepoznavnega in priznanega meteorologa, ki pri svojem profesionalnem delu združuje med drugimi tudi znanja fizike, matematike, tudi kemije, v prepletu z meteorologijo. Posledice podnebnih sprememb so že dobro vidne, vplivajo na naš vsakdan, in posledično se vedno večje število ljudi zaveda obsežnosti problema. Podnebne spremembe so eden večjih problemov, s katerim se sooča človeštvo, in je natančnost podajanja informacij s strani strokovnjakov izjemno pomembna za spodbujanje zaupanja v javnosti do omenjenega problema.«Zgodovina fizike podnebnih sprememb sega v leto 1856.»Družba je napredovala do te mere, da omogoča deležu ljudi ukvarjanje z raziskovanjem, z znanostjo, z odkrivanjem novega in razumevanjem obstoječega. Ta privilegij uživam tudi sam, poklicno se ukvarjam s področjem vremena, podnebja, napovedovanja vremena in razvoja klime, kar mi omogoča pregled nad literaturo, članki, to vsebino tako lahko predajam naprej med javnost.«Fizikalno napovedljiva dejstva o spremembi podnebja niso novost, vse se je praktično vedelo že dvajset, trideset let nazaj. Vzorce mikroplastike najdemo v sloju tal širom sveta, se bo o nas govorilo kot o plastični družbi?»Mikroplastiko najdemo tako v kopenskih kot ledeniških vzorcih, ta bo zaznamovala dobo, ki se ji reče antropocen. Lahko se bo govorilo o nas kot o plastični družbi, lahko se bo govorilo tudi o fosilni družbi, kajti odtis ogljikovega dioksida v ledenih vrtinah oziroma v kopenskem ledu - ki bo seveda obstal in prešel to naše obdobje ogrevanja, bo za vedno pričal o naših aktivnostih.!«Od kod teorije zarot?»Če se odmaknemo od študij klime in se posvetimo bolj študijam vedenjskih vzorcev ljudi, slednje kažejo, da je precej lažje sprejeti poenostavljene, prikupne razlage pojavov, kot pa znanstveno kompleksne razlage, ki terjajo ogromno predznanja, zelo dobro matematično in fizikalno pismenost, poznavanje osnovnih konceptov, s katerimi potem sploh lahko razumemo naprej omenjene posledice. Precej lažje je seveda verjeti poenostavljeni razlagi, kar je praktično princip vseh teorij zarot. Če se vrnemo na osnovne dokaze podnebnih sprememb, obstaja nekaj neizpodbitnih fizikalnih dokazov, zakaj se podnebne spremembe dogajajo in zakaj smo zanje trenutno krivi izključno ljudje.«Resnica ni vedno prijetna, včasih je znanstveno dejstvo tudi neljubo. »Naša velika prednost pred preteklimi civilizacijami, ki so (že)propadle, je v orodjih, ki nam dajejo vpogled v prihodnost, izkoristimo jo. Po drugi strani pa je seveda tudi naše znanje o klimatskih sistemih omejeno. Ne vemo vsega, zato se tudi znanstveni razvoj še dogaja. Ne vemo kakšen bo nadalni potek emisij, to je odvisno od naših družbenih pogodb, od družbenega konsenza - po kakšni poti bomo stopali, pa tudi od – se bom posul s pepelom, neznanja o našem klimatskem sistemu. To neznanje sugerira negotovost, zaradi katere moramo (hitro)zmanjšati emisije toplogrednih plinov.«Naša doba, v kateri se je razvila človeška civilizacija, je temeljila na dvanajst tisoč letih stabilne klime, zdaj smo to destabilizirali.Kaj lahko naredimo?»Ja, glavna stvar je vse napore vložiti v zmanjšanje emisij toplogrednih plinov, omejiti dvig povprečne globalne temperature na dva cela nič stopinj Celzija kot skrajno mero, kar bo preprečilo, da se (skoraj zagotovo) v klimatskem sistemu izognemo izvedbi množice negativnih podnebnih povratnih zank, ki bi ogrevanje oz. nadaljevanje podnebnih sprememb še podaljšalo. Napredek v resnem obravnavanju podnebnih spremembe je, tudi podpora javnosti je vse višja, ljudje se zavedamo svojega vpliva s škodljivimi posegi in načinom življenja, koliko smo pripravljeni dejavno in čim prej ukrepati, pa je drugo vprašanje. Toda, imamo dolg. Odplačevanje je lahko boleče, kajti dolgo smo emisije jemali na kredit, ki ga velik del prebivalstva, roko na srce, ne bo odplačeval, ampak ga bodo namesto nas naši zanamci. Je to pošteno? Mislim, da ne. Toda obstaja upanje in tehnološke rešitve so del tega upanja, da lahko uspemo zmanjšati emisije toplogrednih plinov, tudi brez večjih sistemskih sprememb v kakovosti bivanja. S pogostim letenjem povzročamo izjemen ogljični odtis. Emisije teh sektorjev so izredno pomembne, emisije bomo na nivoju posameznikov zmanjšali tudi s prehodom iz hrane pretežno živalskega na hrano pretežno rastlinskega izvora.Imamo sektorje, ki zahtevajo spremembe tudi na naši strani, kot so sektorji aviacije, kmetijstva in rabe tal. Letalstvo je sektor, ki se kot kaže še nekaj časa ne bo uspel okoljsko razogljičiti. Smo pripravljeni spremeniti način bivanja oziroma tipične prehranjevalne vzorce? Moj namen ni preprečevanje, ampak podajanje objektivnih informacij.«

This episode we chat with the premier eclipse climate and weather expert, Jay Anderson.  He is the ultimate  ‘clear skies guy' as creator of eclipseophile.com, which is THE standard for eclipse trip planning.  He has observed 34 solar eclipses including 24 total solar eclipses. Jay joins us remotely from Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada. At 10 days out from totality in 2024, we hear about his journey and listen to wise guidance as we transition from climate projections to weather models for the upcoming event. “Dream, travel, explore… you only go around once.” -Jay Anderson Link to Eclipsophile climatology and weather links: https://eclipsophile.com/Quick link to eclipse-day planning:https://eclipsophile.com/eclipse-day-weather/Jay's recent Sky & Telescope article:https://skyandtelescope.org/astronomy-news/what-will-the-weather-be-on-the-day-of-the-total-solar-eclipseJay's "Q&A With An Expert" with Space.com:https://www.space.com/total-solar-eclipse-weather-prospects-how-experts-make-predictions-q-and-aThe Eclipse Bulletin and Road Atlas (co-authored with Fred Espenak!):https://www.amazon.com/dp/1941983448https://www.mreclipse.com/pubs/Atlas2024.html Weather model chart collection at weather.us (ECMWF, ICON, GFS, NAM, HRRR):https://weather.us/model-chartsNational Weather Service CPC long range forecasts:https://www.weather.gov/hun/climateforecastWindy app (people love it):https://windy.app/blog/nam-vs-hrrr-weather-models.htmlSafe Solar Viewing Glasses, Eclipse T-Shirts and swag https://texassolareclipses.com/shopHost Leticia Ferrer's Texas Eclipses Site https://texassolareclipses.com/Host Chris Chotas Alexander's Sitehttps://www.chotachrome.com/IG: @chotachromeLooking for an Eclipse Day Event - Leticia Ferrer will be at the Cosmic Cowboy Eclipse Festival in Hillsboro Texas - 4 minutes 23 seconds of Totality Also Check out Leticia Ferrer's Event's Page for Free Local (in Dallas) Eventshttps://texassolareclipses.com/upcoming-events/Totality Talks is created by Leticia Ferrer and Chris Chotas Alexander. Totality Talks is produced by Chris Chotas Alexander.

We introduce a machine-learning (ML)-based weather simulator—called “GraphCast”—which outperforms the most accurate deterministic operational medium-range weather forecasting system in the world, as well as all previous ML baselines. GraphCast is an autoregressive model, based on graph neural networks and a novel high-resolution multi-scale mesh representation, which we trained on historical weather data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)'s ERA5 reanalysis archive. It can make 10-day forecasts, at 6-hour time intervals, of five surface variables and six atmospheric variables, each at 37 vertical pressure levels, on a 0.25° latitude-longitude grid, which corresponds to roughly 25 × 25 kilometer resolution at the equator. Our results show GraphCast is more accurate than ECMWF's deterministic operational forecasting system, HRES, on 90 . 0 % of the 2760 variable and lead time combinations we evaluated. GraphCast also outperforms the most accurate previous ML-based weather forecasting model on 99 . 2 % of the 252 targets it reported. GraphCast can generate a 10-day forecast (35 gigabytes of data) in under 60 seconds on Cloud TPU v4 hardware. Unlike traditional forecasting methods, ML-based forecasting scales well with data: by training on bigger, higher quality, and more recent data, the skill of the forecasts can improve. Together these results represent a key step forward in complementing and improving weather modeling with ML, open new opportuni-ties for fast, accurate forecasting, and help realize the promise of ML-based simulation in the physical sciences. 2022: Rémi R. Lam, Alvaro Sanchez-Gonzalez, M. Willson, Peter Wirnsberger, Meire Fortunato, A. Pritzel, Suman V. Ravuri, Timo Ewalds, Ferran Alet, Z. Eaton-Rosen, Weihua Hu, Alexander Merose, Stephan Hoyer, George Holland, Jacklynn Stott, Oriol Vinyals, S. Mohamed, P. Battaglia https://arxiv.org/pdf/2212.12794v2.pdf

Today I had the honor to host John Boero. John is dual UK/US citizen from Chicago living in London. In his 20 years of experience he have been fortunate to consult for several of the world's largest banks and public institutions. He have helped install, harden, and tune Linux and cloud infrastructure all around the globe for customers in every vertical from finance to media streaming, energy grid infrastructure, telco, and ecommerce. Clients have included FDIC, NASA, Lockheed Martin, SWIFT, US Census Bureau, US Dept of Veteran Affairs, Healthcare.gov, Aramco, ECMWF, Morgan Stanley, Barclays, UBS, HSBC, and more. We talked about Careers in Open Sources, Technical Sales, Building a niche skills, running Fedora on your work laptop, and so many interesting subjects. You can reach out to John on Linkedin and Abdulrahman on LinkedIn as well. Make sure you check other episodes on aalkhamees.show and feel free to suggest guests!

Andrea Montani Laurea in fisica (Università di Genova, I), Master e dottorato in Meteorologia (Università di Reading, UK). Dopo aver lavorato presso Arpa Emilia-Romagna Servizio IdroMeteoClima occupandosi di Modellistica Numerica Previsionale, lavora dal 2019 presso ECMWF, Computing Department, dove segue l'implementazione e il supporto dei sistemi produttivi operativi e time-critical. Andrea Montani - Degree in Physics (University of Genoa, I), Master and PhD in Meteorology (University of Reading, UK). After working at Arpa Emilia-Romagna Servizio IdroMeteoClima dealing with Numerical Weather Prediction, he has been working since 2019 at ECMWF, Computing Department, where he follows the implementation and the support of time-critical operational production systems. Siti, app, libri e link utili Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ECMWF linkedin  ECMWF what we do  R2B BOLOGNA RESEARCH TO BUSINESS ART-ER Attrattività Ricerca Territorio è la Società Consortile dell'Emilia-Romagna nata per favorire la crescita sostenibile della regione  Tecnopolo di Bologna  I libri da scegliere  Weather Forecast Analyst o Analista previsionale nel settore metereologico Un analista previsionale è responsabile della previsione della produzione futura e delle condizioni finanziarie, di un prodotto, di un servizio, di una previsione per un ente o per un'azienda, analizza le statistiche dei dati correnti. Può applicare la sua expertise in diversi settori compreso quello metereologico. Un Forecast Analyst presso ECMWF e cioè European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts o Centro europeo per le previsioni meteorologiche a medio termine in particolare è chiamato a supportare i sistemi di produzione operativi critici di ECMWF, con focus su acquisizione e preelaborazione dei dati osservativi, gestione della catena di produzione, generazione, diffusione e archiviazione dei prodotti meteorologici. Garantire un'adeguata qualità del servizio per i sistemi di produzione operativi critici, compreso il supporto per lo sviluppo e la pianificazione dell'evoluzione, la transizione verso le operazioni, la definizione dei processi di supporto operativo, il monitoraggio e la documentazione. Eseguire e fornire consulenza sulla garanzia della qualità per nuovi contributi e modifiche ai sistemi operativi critici. Fornire consulenza nella fase iniziale relativamente a nuovi sviluppi mirati all'implementazione operativa, garantendo compatibilità e livelli adeguati di ottimizzazione e affidabilità. Partecipare a un servizio di chiamata 24 ore su 24 per i servizi che sono fondamentali per il funzionamento di Servizio di consegna delle previsioni ECMWF.

Dolgoročne vremenske napovedi ARSO na Twitterju, Facebooku in Instagramu. Komentarje, predloge, pohvale in kritike nam lahko pošljete na elektronski naslov: podcast.arso@gov.si Zapiski: Vremenska napoved Obeti 5 do 10 dni Arhiv vremenskih podatkov Aktualni vremenski podatki Vremenska slika Vremenski portal - vreme podrobneje Produkti centra ECMWF

Dolgoročne vremenske napovedi ARSO na Twitterju, Facebooku in Instagramu. Komentarje, predloge, pohvale in kritike nam lahko pošljete na elektronski naslov: podcast.arso@gov.si Zapiski: Vremenska napoved Obeti 5 do 10 dni Arhiv vremenskih podatkov Aktualni vremenski podatki Vremenska slika Vremenski portal - vreme podrobneje Produkti centra ECMWF

We chat today about chat GPT, Destination Earth as well as the changing approach to discovery and the advancement of science and technology. Enjoy, subscribe and share!Destination Earth (DestinE), is an ambitious initiative to create a digital twin – an interactive computer simulation – of our planet to empower climate change adaptation and to prevent environmental degradation.As extreme weather becomes increasingly frequent and changes in climate more pronounced, there is an urgent need to forecast these events with even greater accuracy, to predict their impact on the environment, life and property.Using an unprecedented amount of data, innovative Earth system models and cutting-edge computing, Destination Earth will allow users to explore interactively the different components of the Earth system and natural and human-induced change. They will be able and to look at the past and present and to test and develop future scenarios.ECMWF, the European Space Agency (ESA) and the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) are the three organisations entrusted by the EU to achieve this unprecedented endeavour for climate, weather and computing sciences.By pushing the limits of computing and climate sciences, DestinE is a cornerstone of the European Commission's efforts to boost Europe's digital capabilities and the Green Deal actions on climate change and to prevent environmental degradation.The first phase of the programme – its initial implementation phase – will be completed by June 2024. It will focus on configuring, deploying and demonstrating the initial infrastructure building blocks that will support Destination Earth in its future phases.Peter's current role at ECMWF (the European center for medium ranged weather forecasting) is as Director of Destination Earth. Destination Earth is an ambitious initiative of the European Commission to develop a highly accurate digital twin, or replica, of Earth to to monitor and predict the interaction between natural phenomena and human activities. Key to predicting the effects and building resilience to climate changePeter had previously founded and led the ECMWF Scalability Programme which addresses the challenges of operating complex Earth system models on future supercomputing facilities.As Head of the Satellite Section, he has been coordinating all scientific and technical activities related to the efficient use of space-borne observations of the atmosphere, oceans, land and the cryosphere.https://www.linkedin.com/in/peter-bauer-712677109/https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/what-we-do/environmental-services-and-future-vision/destination-earthhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/odessa-primus/https://www.globari.org/If you want better insights into challenges and decisions you or your business are facing, GARI's analytical services are of unmatched complexity and high accuracy - whether your questions are on the green energy transition, trade and supply chains, or political and security related - contact us for a free consultation and see how you can optimise your decision-making.www.globari.org@LinkedIn @GARInstitute) / Twitter

Jenny is Head of the Real Time Service and System Operations Division at Eumetsat in Germany. She has a wealth of experience in weather and now weather satellites, previously working for ECMWF and the Met Office.Eumetsat is responsible for maintaining and operating meteorological satellites. The organsiation delivers this data to where it needs to go, ensuring that supercomputers around the world are being fed realtime data from space while improving the accuracy of the the most sophisticated climate and weather models.Jenny talks through the incredible journey of the newly launched MGT-I1 and why it may change the future of global forecasting. She also talks about the Geo-ring, Lagrange points and satellite graveyards! So have a listen and sit back and as always we hope you leave this episode just loving the weather that little bit more.You can find Jenny Rouke on LlinkedIn and Twitter @jennyrouke . You can find Eumetstat at https://www.eumetsat.int and on Twitter @eumetsatIf you would like to follow our podcast on Twitter @4loveofweather or Instagram @Fortheloveofweather.Thanks so much for listening and supporting the podcast.

¿Qué tiempo meteorológico nos deparará el invierno 2022-23? Esta pregunta y otras similares nos las planteamos habitualmente al aproximarse una nueva estación. A pesar que debemos de tener en cuenta que las previsiones meteorológicas a largo plazo no son fiables al 100%, si que nos ofrecen una tendencia media de lo que ocurrirá. ¿Hará frío? ¿Lloverá? ¿Será un invierno muy riguroso? ¿Habrá fuertes tormentas? El pronóstico estacional para el invierno 2022-23 en el continente Europeo, España, Catalunya y Palau-solità i Plegamans, según los modelos NOAA y ECMWF, nos indican un invierno con temperaturas normales en el centro y sur de Europa en sus inicios...

N'y aura-t-il bientôt plus assez de vent pour faire tourner nos éoliennes ? La question se pose alors que 2021 a été marquée par des trous d'air importants, notamment en Europe du Nord... Là où justement se multiplient les parcs éoliens, censés participer à la transition énergétique. Et le réchauffement climatique pourrait aggraver la situation. Explications avec Sébastien Julian, journaliste au service Sciences de L'Express et Julien Nicolas, scientifique au Centre européen pour les prévisions météorologiques à moyen terme (ECMWF). Retrouvez tous les détails de l'épisode ici et inscrivez-vous à notre newsletter.L'équipe :Écriture : Charlotte BarisPrésentation : Xavier YvonMontage : Mathias PenguillyRéalisation : Jules KrotAlternante : Marion GalardMusique et habillage : Emmanuel Herschon / Studio TorrentCrédits image : Olivier Morin / AFPLogo : Anne-Laure Chapelain / Thibaut ZschieschePour nous écrire : laloupe@lexpress.fr Hébergé par Acast. Visitez acast.com/privacy pour plus d'informations.

Destination Earth is a high precision digital model of the Earth. It is the EU's flagship initiative to create a digital replica of our entire planet. "This replica is a Digital Twin in fact. It's a gigantic task, that requires the world's biggest computing to create the most precise data to tackle climate change.” That's how Dr. Peter Bauer describes this 7 billion Euro project which he heads. It's part of the EU's Green Deal to tackle climate change and it is meant to provide pinpoint evidence-based support to enable Member States to implement the green transformation. Destination Earth aims to provide the complex software and hardware environment needed for the next generation of very high-resolution prediction models. By 2030, it is expected to have been achieved. DestinE Actors: EU Commission, European Space Agency, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites Peter Bauer talks about: - How Destination Earth can help the planet to heal - first digitally, then in reality - How to improve our understanding of climate change and enable solutions at global, regional and local level - How to predict where to live safely for the next five decades - What Destination Earth has in common with the Metaverse - Obstacles and finances including the impact of the energy crisis

Today, I am speaking with Julia Wagemann, an independent consultant and project manager in the Earth observation sector. Julia works in the intersection of data providers and users aiming to make large volumes of EO data better accessible and used. She has several years of experience in EO and she has worked with organisations including ESA, EUMETSAT, ECMWF and more. For me, "boring problems" are categories of problems very few are interested in working on, but unless they are solved, the industry cannot grow. I call them "boring" in an ironic way - because there is more attention given to launching more satellites and getting more data down, than figuring out how to work with all that data together. In this episode, Julia and discuss the similarities & differences between imaging data and meteorological data, the role of platforms in EO, the significance of standards and interoperability and diversity in EO, particularly focused on Women+ in Geospatial, an initiative that was co-founded by Julia. Julia's Twitter Julia's LinkedIn Women In Geospatial Speaker Database ----- 01:45: Julia's story 04:55: What encompasses Earth observation data - imaging data vs meteorological data? 10:18: State of adoption of EO data 13:37: What is the role of platforms in EO? 21:01: The significance of standards in improving adoption 28:38: The current state of interoperability in EO 32:22: The role of the private sector in working on interoperability and standards 35:13: The importance of training & workshops in Earth observation 44:41: Making EO more diverse with Women+ in Geospatial 52:04: Wrap-up

Dr Mark Parrington is a senior scientist in the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) Development Section at ECMWF working on wildfire emissions.Mark begins by telling us about Saharan dust in the UK. He also talks us through the positives and negatives of wildfires and ‘black carbon'. He explains how fire seasons are getting longer in California and why ‘mega fires' are becoming more likely.Mark tells us about scientific advancements in understanding ‘zombie fires' and why we should be worried about Siberian fires and the changing landscape of the Arctic.We learned so much chatting to Mark in this episode about wildfires and we hope you enjoy this episode as much as we did.If you would like to check out some of Mark's work, you can find him on twitter @m_parringtonIf you would like to follow us on Twitter or Instagram here are our details:If you would like to follow us on Twitter or Instagram here are our details:Instagram: FortheloveofweatherTwitter:4loveofweather.Thanks so much for listening and supporting the podcast.

con Guglielmo Gianolio - geologo e autore per SIGEA - Società Italiana di Geologia Ambientale. Perchè l'alluvione che ha devastato la Germania a Luglio 2021 si poteva prevedere? Come le conoscenze geologiche in combinazione con i dati di osservazione della Terra, aiutano a comprendere e prevenire questi eventi? Alluvioni e non solo: EFAS operato da ECMWF e quali sono e cosa fanno i servizi europei per le emergenze del programma Copernicus EU?

We now have a few areas to keep watch of across the Atlantic Basin this afternoon and beyond. I will take a closer look at what's going on out there, including a look ahead into July using some guidance from the ECMWF upward motion charts, all during my Hurricane Outlook and Discussion video on YouTube later this afternoon. Thanks for listening, have a great rest of your weekend!

In this episode of The WeatherPod hosts Alan Thorpe and David Rogers have invited Florence Rabier, Director-General of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts into the studio. This is a special extended episode of The WeatherPod devoted exclusively to ECMWF and the recent publication of its 10-year strategy 2021 to 2030 As many listeners will know, ECMWF is an independent intergovernmental organisation supported by 34 countries, working closely with their national meteorological services. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Derzeit hört man oft: Da wegen der Corona-Maßnahmen immer weniger Flugzeuge fliegen, werden immer weniger Wetterdaten gemessen und daher wird die Wetterprognosen schlechter. Kann das stimmen? Ein Fall für unsere Rubrik „G´scheit angeben – für mehr Niveau im Wetter-Small-Talk“.

There has been a huge update to the forecast models with regards to the major winter storm moving into the Northeast towards the end of this week. Yesterday, the ECMWF was showing 2 feet of snow possible for Massachusetts and Maine, but now, the models have moved the storm offshore. While some accumulations are still likely with this run, the bullseye of this system is no longer directly over the U.S. On the bright side, this storm is a long way off, so the models will continue to change and get better throughout the week. If you want to stay updated with this story as it develops, you can subscribe to Holt Hanley Weather. Thanks for watching! This is the audio version of a video. For best viewing experience, check out Holt Hanley Weather on Youtube, or go to www.holthanleyweather.com.

Addison Snell and Tiffany Trader return from hiatus with on overview of the biggest stories of 2020 so far in HPC, including Fujitsu's new ARM deployment and Atos' weather system installation.

And High Powered Radio Towers, tooThe show starts out in the usual way with check ups on the health and happiness of our hosts. Jessi finished a 50-mile race over the weekend, which is admirable, particularly when you consider she was on foot.With a reasonable decent segue, Dan moves the conversation to the topic of this show:  the shiny new ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) supercomputer. This new system will give them roughly 5x more compute power than their current system. The new box is an Atos BullSequana XH2000AMD fueled by high-end AMD 7742 Epyc processors, which will be the most powerful weather computer in the world. During the conversation we look at the history of ECMWF vendors, discuss the implications on weather forecasts given the power of this new system and the computational difficulties inherent in weather prediction.Why Nobody Should Ever be Online. Ever.This week, Henry tells us about the Microsoft 250 million customer records exposure, but it’s a head fake! Henry explains how this is actually an example of how a company should handle an exploit and how this one wasn’t very bad. The verdict? Clickbait. But still stay offline.Catch of the WeekJessi:  Dominos is using GPUs and AI to drive their production and make their deliveries more efficient. Very cool.Shahin:  Pirelli is making a cyber tire that is sensor enabled and can communicate road conditions to other tires/cars via a 5G network.Shahin dips into his net again to highlight how a fantastically ambitious man built a radio station in Ohio that went from 50 watts to 500 watts, 50k watts, and eventually to 500k watts. See the video in the link and marvel at the ambition, work, and complexity.Henry:  From empty net to a catch that will make Shahin’s catch obsolete, Henry makes a last second save with his story about how contact lenses will give us augmented reality and let us see road temperatures better than our tires will.Dan:  Relates his triumphant but ultimately tragic drone lessons. Henry and Dan relate how they’ve both suffered grievous injuries at the hands of a .49 Cox gas engine.Listen in to hear the full conversation* Download the MP3 * Sign up for the insideHPC Newsletter* Follow us on Twitter * Subscribe on Spotify * Subscribe on Google Play * Subscribe on iTunes * RSS Feed * eMail us

Earlier this year I visited the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, a European organization that produces global weather forecasts and performs research on how to improve those. The episode has three parts. First, Hilda Carr gives us an overview of the organization, its purpose and its history. Then I talk with Peter Bauer about weather and climate modeling and about encoding these models efficiently in software programs that run on supercomputers. Part three is a conversation with Tony McNally about where the ECMWF gets its data and how it is continuously fed into the "running" model.

Earlier this year I visited the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, a European organization that produces global weather forecasts and performs research on how to improve those. The episode has three parts. First, Hilda Carr gives us an overview of the organization, its purpose and its history. Then I talk with Peter Bauer about weather and climate modeling and about encoding these models efficiently in software programs that run on supercomputers. Part three is a conversation with Tony McNally about where the ECMWF gets its data and how it is continuously fed into the "running" model.

Guest: Dr. Neil Jacobs, Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Environmental Observation and Prediction Intro: Meteorologists look at a handful of different models when making their forecasts. This includes the ECMWF, or Euro model and the GFS, or American model. The latter has been under some scrutiny in the community, as it tends to be less accurate than the European, model. Some believe its shortcomings are tied to the lack of government funding for research initiatives to improve it. My guest today has an EPIC proposal on how we can fix this! Dr. Neil Jacobs serves as the acting head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, and has already had his hand in the creation and improvement of weather modeling systems. He’s already taking that experience to the White House, and we’re excited to hear his future plans!

Compressing and sharing PDFs, space elevator revisited (tether extends 60,000 to 200,000 miles), programmable robots for kids (Lego Mindstorm EV3, Makeblock mBot Ranger), Storm Radar (a great weather app), tinyurls (explained, used for phishing), Profiles in IT (Vilhelm Bjerknes, father of modern weather foreasting), first ride on a Bird electric scooter (convenient and fun, a success), physics of hurricanes (powered by warm water, rotation caused by coriolis force,and more), hurricane forecast computer models (ECMWF, GFDL, GFS, UKMET), European model is consistently the most accurate (higher resolution, more detailed modelling), placebo buttons give illusion of control (buttons on traffic signal, elevator close buttons). This show originally aired on Saturday, September 15, 2018, at 9:00 AM EST on WFED (1500 AM).

Compressing and sharing PDFs, space elevator revisited (tether extends 60,000 to 200,000 miles), programmable robots for kids (Lego Mindstorm EV3, Makeblock mBot Ranger), Storm Radar (a great weather app), tinyurls (explained, used for phishing), Profiles in IT (Vilhelm Bjerknes, father of modern weather foreasting), first ride on a Bird electric scooter (convenient and fun, a success), physics of hurricanes (powered by warm water, rotation caused by coriolis force,and more), hurricane forecast computer models (ECMWF, GFDL, GFS, UKMET), European model is consistently the most accurate (higher resolution, more detailed modelling), placebo buttons give illusion of control (buttons on traffic signal, elevator close buttons). This show originally aired on Saturday, September 15, 2018, at 9:00 AM EST on WFED (1500 AM).

Det första avsnittet 2017 bjuder på spännande snöoväder i USA, en omgång mellan GFS och ECMWF och lite vårsnack.

Eiswolken und insbesondere hohe Zirruswolken bedecken im globalen jährlichen Mittel bis zu 30 % der Erde und haben deshalb einen signifikanten Einfluß auf das Klima. Eine Besonderheit hoher Eiswolken ist, dass sie einen wärmenden Effekt auf das System Erde und Atmosphäre besitzen können. Dieser wärmende Effekt wird u. a. durch tägliche und saisonale Variationen der optischen Eigenschaften beeinflußt. Um genaue Messungen der optischen Eigenschaften von Aerosolen und Zirruswolken zu erhalten, wurde 2006 die "Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations" (CALIPSO) Mission in einen polaren Orbit gestartet. Mit Hilfe des Hauptinstrumentes, des "Cloud- Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization" (CALIOP), können nun optische Eigenschaften von Aerosol- und dünnen Wolkenschichten mit bisher unerreichter Genauigkeit und Sensitivität bestimmt werden. Allerdings erlaubt dieser Orbit mit einer Wiederkehrdauer von mehr als zwei Wochen keine Ableitung von Tagesgängen der optischen Eigenschaften und des Bedeckungsgrades von Zirruswolken, weshalb in dieser Arbeit der Wolkensensor "Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager" (SEVIRI) auf dem geostationären "METEOSAT Second Generation" (MSG) Satelliten benutzt wird. SEVIRI deckt mit seinen Messungen fast ein Drittel der Erde ab und reicht von 80 N bis 80 S und von 80 W bis 80 E bei einer räumlichen Auflösung von bis zu 3 km x 3 km im Nadir und einer zeitlichen Auflösung von 15 Minuten. Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit wurde ein gänzlich neuer Ansatz verfolgt, um die Vorteile beider Instrumente (die hohe Sensitivität und Genauigkeit von CALIOP und die hohe zeitliche und räumliche Auflösung von SEVIRI) miteinander zu verbinden: Der "Cirrus Optical properties derived from CALIOP and SEVIRI during day and night" (COCS) Algorithmus basiert auf dem Prinzip künstlicher Neuronaler Netze und leitet die optischen Dicken von Zirruswolken und deren Oberkantenhöhen aus Messungen der Infrarotkanäle des Instrumentes SEVIRI ab, was Beobachtungen sowohl in der Nacht als auch am Tage ermöglicht. Dieses Neuronale Netz wurde mit gleichzeitigen Messungen der optischen Dicken und Höhen der Wolkenoberkante von CALIOP trainiert. In dieser Arbeit wird die Entwicklung von COCS und die Validierung mit zwei unterschiedlichen Lidar-Messungen beschrieben, mit denen von CALIOP und mit denen des flugzeuggetragenen "High Spectral Resolution Lidar" (HSRL). Die Validierungen zeigen die hohe Genauigkeit des hier entwickelten Algorithmus in der Ableitung der optischen Dicken und Höhen der Wolkenoberkante von Zirruswolken. Zusätzlich wurden auch Vergleiche der COCS-Ergebnisse mit zwei weiteren auf SEVIRI basierenden Algorithmen durchgeführt: Zum einen mit dem "METEOSAT Cirrus Detection Algorithm 2" (MECiDA-2), welcher ebenfalls die thermischen Infrarotkanäle benutzt, zum anderen mit dem "Algorithm for the Physical Investigation of Clouds with SEVIRI" (APICS), welcher zur Ableitung der optischen Eigenschaften von Wolken sowohl auf den Infrarotkanälen als auch auf Kanälen im sichtbaren Spektralbereich basiert. Die Validierung zeigt hervorragende Ergebnisse für die Erkennung von Zirruswolken mit einer Fehldetektionsrate von unter 5 % und einer Detektionseffizienz von bis zu 99 % ab einer optischen Dicke von 0.1. Ebenfalls wird eine Standardabweichung von 0.25 für die optische Dicke und 0.75 km für die Höhe der Wolkenoberkante nachgewiesen. Basierend auf fünf Jahren prozessierter COCS-Daten werden die Tagesgänge von Zirruswolken in verschiedenen Regionen der Erde analysiert und diskutiert. Die Ergebnisse zeigen ausgeprägte Tagesgänge des Zirrusbedeckungsgrades und der optischen Dicke, welche sich von den Vorhersagen des "European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts" (ECMWF) unterscheiden. Eine Betrachtung des Bedeckungsgrades hoher Wolken, vorhergesagt durch das ECMWF, und der Ergebnisse des COCS Algorithmus zeigt gut übereinstimmende Tagesgänge in konvektiven Regionen, während Unterschiede in nichtkonvektiven Regionen über dem Nord- (NAR) und Südatlantik (SAR) sichtbar werden. Generell wird vor allem in diesen Regionen ein höherer Bedeckungsgrad mit Unterschieden von 3-10 % durch COCS errechnet. Abschließend werden die Unterschiede der NAR und SAR diskutiert, da im Nordatlantik einer der meist frequentierten ozeanischen Flugkorridore liegt. Hier mischen sich die heißen Flugzeugabgase mit kalten Luftmassen und führen zur Bildung von Kondensstreifen. Diese Kondensstreifen verlieren mit der Zeit ihre lineare Form und können anschließend nicht mehr von natürlich entstandenen Zirruswolken unterschieden werden. Grundsätzlich zeigt sich hier eine starke Korrelation des Tagesganges von Bedeckungsgrad und optischer Dicke der Zirruswolken mit der Luftverkehrsdichte. Es werden Unterschiede von bis zu 3 % im Bedeckungsgrad zwischen NAR und SAR detektiert.

Kan en röd himmel med säkerhet ge en vacker morgondag? Och hur långt bort kan åskmuller uppfattas? Det är två frågor som ställs i söndagens Cirrus. Meteorologen heter Nils Holmqvist. I väderskolan får du veta om hur viktig Celsius var när väderlekstjänsten växte fram och så blir det inte mindre än två tävlingar. I dagens program svarar meteorologen på en fråga om meteorologiska mätdata från fartyg. På bilden nedan kan man se hur glest det är mellan observationsplatserna till sjöss. Här hittar du länken till sidan: ECMWF

Fri, 2 Mar 2012 12:00:00 +0100 https://edoc.ub.uni-muenchen.de/14128/ https://edoc.ub.uni-muenchen.de/14128/1/Schaefler_Andreas.pdf Schäfler, Andreas

Steinheimer, M (ECMWF) Friday 27 August 2010, 11:30-12:30

This dissertation describes various aspects of improvements made in the representation of clouds in the global forecast model of the European Centre of Medium-Range Weather Fore- casts (ECMWF). Cloud parametrization has long been identified as one of the most crucial and uncertain aspects in General Circulation Models (GCMs) of the atmosphere, which are used for both Numerical Weather Prediction and the simulation of climate. It is therefore important to constantly monitor and improve the performance of cloud parametrizations in those models. The first part of the work describes the implementation of an existing cloud parametrization into ECMWF's forecasting system with special attention to a new treatment of the prognos- tic cloud variables in data assimilation. This is followed by an analysis of the performance of the parametrization during a 15-year long data assimilation experiment carried out in the context of the ECMWF reanalysis project. It is shown that despite an overall good perfor- mance, several weaknesses in the simulation of clouds exist. Subtropical stratocumulus and extratropical cloudiness are underestimated, while the cloud fraction in the trade cumulus areas and in the Intertropical Convergence Zone is overestimated. In the second part of the study detailed revisions of the parametrization of cloud generation by convective and non-convective processes are described. A consistent new description of cloud generation by convection is derived using the mass- ux approach. Furthermore an improved description of the generation of clouds by non-convective processes is introduced. The superiority of the new formulation compared to the existing one is demonstrated and links to other approaches to cloud parametrization are established. The third part of the work studies the role of vertically varying cloud fraction for the descrip- tion of microphysical processes. It is shown that the commonly used approach of representing precipitation in GCMs by means of grid-averaged quantities leads to serious errors in the parametrization of various physical processes such as the evaporation of precipitation, with severe consequences for the model's hydrological cycle. A new parametrization of the eects of vertically-varying cloud fraction based on a separation of cloudy and clear-sky precipita- tion uxes is developed and its performance assessed. It is shown that this parametrization alleviates most of the identied problems and thereby more realistically describes the pre- cipitation physics in the presence of cloud fraction variations. The final part of the dissertation takes a critical look at the way the results of cloud parametrizations are evaluated today. A number of studies using a variety of data sources and modelling approaches are described and the need for a coordinated use of the various existing validation techniques is highlighted. A strategy to achieve such coordination is proposed. This work provides contributions to virtually all facets of the development of cloud parame- trizations. It combines theoretical aspects with the use of a variety of modelling approaches and data sources for the assessment of the performance of the parametrization. All model improvements described here are now part of the operational version of the ECMWF forecast model.

The intensity changes of an Australian monsoon depression and typhoons Flo (1990) and Ed (1990) are investigated using operational analyses, diagnostic studies, and numerical model calculations. The analyses are based on gridded data from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s (BMRC’s) Tropical Analysis System, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) data archive, and the 1990 Tropical Cyclone Motion experiment (TCM-90). The TCM-90 analyses are provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and incorporate typhoon boguses of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and the Japan Meteorological Agency. The monsoon depression developed over northwestern Australia in February 1994. After remaining quasi-stationary for several days after its formation in the monsoon trough, the depression drifted slowly southwestwards along the coast of Western Australia and eventually weakened. The evolution is exemplified by time-height cross-sections of various kinematic quantities as well as the apparent source of potential vorticity, which has been taken into account in the PV equation for the first time. A prominent feature of these diagnostic fields is the impact of convective and diabatic processes on the development. The structure of the depression is very similar to those of the few monsoon depressions that have been documented over the Indian subcontinent. The formation of the depression coincided with the passage of an upper-level middle-latitude trough and a low-level anticyclone to the south, but the extent to which the genesis was influenced by these disturbances is unclear. The equation for the mean tangential wind in a storm-following cylindrical coordinate system is applied to investigate the intensity changes of tropical cyclones and monsoon depressions. In this equation, the symmetric, the resolved asymmetric and the subgrid-scale contributions are fully separated. The tangential wind changes can be interpreted in terms of absolute vorticity flux, angular momentum flux, PV flux or the Eliassen-Palm flux-divergence. The corresponding eddy fluxes are compared, and the impact of convection on the intensity changes as well as the interaction between a monsoon depression and upper-level troughs and ridges is investigated. Analyses of observational data for a monsoon depression that formed near the coast of northwestern Australia in February 1994 show that all terms in the tangential wind equation are important, except for the drift term. These important terms include above all the subgrid-scale terms which are presumed to be largely due to processes associated with deep convection. In the lower and middle troposphere, the main terms contributing to the intensification of the monsoon depression are the radial absolute vorticity fluxes (cyclonic inward fluxes of relative and planetary vorticity; or the corresponding terms that include the Eliassen-Palm fluxes, the radial PV-fluxes, or the angular momentum fluxes) and the vertical advection of tangential wind. In the upper troposphere, the cyclonic tangential wind change can be attributed mainly to the relative vorticity fluxes (anticyclonic outward fluxes of relative vorticity), the vertical advection of tangential wind, and the subgrid-scale contributions. The weakening tendency of the upper-level anticyclone associated with these effects and the channelled, widespread outflow are related to the strengthening of the monsoon depression. The inward movement of the eddy PV-flux-maxima in the upper troposphere reflects the approach of PV anomalies associated with passing mid-latitude troughs. We hypothesize that the convection near the monsoon depression is enhanced in front of the approaching PV anomalies by the reduction of static stability and by the vacuum cleaner effect, and that this influences the intensification of the depression. As a check on the robustness of the findings, the results using BMRC analyses are compared with those using ECMWF analyses. Despite the high diurnal variability, the patterns of the daily-mean symmetric, resolved-asymmetric and unresolved-asymmetric contributions agree relatively well, although the figures from the higher resolution ECMWF analyses show more details with more distinct peaks. The intensity changes of typhoons Flo and Ed, which were strongly influenced by deep convection, have been investigated using the Europa- and the Deutschland-Modell of the Deutscher Wetterdienst. The sensitivity of model forecasts to different initial conditions, typhoon boguses, model resolution and physical parameterizations has been examined. The typhoons Flo and Ed developed east of Guam and drifted northwest and westward, respectively. During the observation period, they were embedded in the monsoon trough and were about 1700 km apart. After 15 September 1990, Flo intensified rapidly to supertyphoon strength and recurved towards Japan. Before weakening over the coast of Vietnam, Ed undertook an unusual, southwestward drift. The effects of the large-scale and subgrid-scale asymmetries on the intensity of Typhoon Flo were not significant despite the nearby TUTT-cell and could not explain the intense deepening phase after 15 September. An inward or outward drift of maximal or minimal absolute eddy-vorticity fluxes was not analysed. The predictions of the asymmetry effects give useful hints about the kind and strength of the effects independently of the grid-resolution and the typhoon bogus incorporated in the start analysis. As in the case of the Australian monsoon depression, the vertical advection of momentum and the subgrid-scale effects are not negligible. For the two typhoons, the Europa- and the Deutschland-Modell showed a modest forecast skill for intensity change. The initial data fields, the incorporated boguses, the model resolution, and the physical parameterizations have a significant influence on the intensity forecasts. The boundary values barely affect the intensity prediction. Compared to operational forecast models, the two models have good skill in predicting typhoon tracks. The track prediction is nearly independent of the grid resolution and the cumulus, radiation and diffusion parameterization applied. Variations in track arise primarily from different boundary conditions and initial analyses including the typhoon boguses used. The model resolution, the initial analysis used, and the typhoon bogus incorporated have nearly no influence on the distribution and size of the rain areas. However, the typhoon bogus used and the model resolution strongly affect the amount of core region precipitation. The intensity of the model typhoons is correlated with the precipitation intensity and the strength of convection. Averaged over the entire typhoon area, the differences in the amount of rain for the two model resolutions is small, however.