Podcasts about class iv

Dairy futures have been anything but calm. In just three weeks, prices across Class III, Class IV, cheese, butter and nonfat have surged, then whipped back and forth enough to exhaust even full-time market watchers. In this episode of The Milk Check, Ted Jacoby and the T.C. Jacoby & Co. team break down why dairy futures can look irrational, even when the underlying fundamentals haven't changed much. What's driving the chaos (beyond fundamentals) Short squeezes 101: how a crowded short can turn into a domino effect Flow first, narrative second: why the buying often hits before the story shows up Realized vs. implied volatility: what the market did vs. what the options market is pricing in Why nonfat may be the center of the storm: the team debates whether this is a true regime change Why butter and cheese moved too: how spread relationships and algorithmic trading can drag correlated dairy contracts higher Spot market feedback loops: how NDPSR-linked spot markets can amplify futures moves (tail-wagging-the-dog dynamics). What usually happens next: why squeezes rarely park at the top Plus: stick around for a director's cut featuring the unedited, behind-the-scenes debate the team usually leaves on the cutting room floor. Got questions? We'd love to hear them. Submit below, and we might answer it on the show. Ask The Milk Check Ted Jacoby III: [00:00:00] It has been wild and crazy every day for the last three weeks. Welcome to the Milk Check from T.C. Jacoby and Company, your complete guide to dairy markets, from the milking parlor to the supermarket shelf. I’m Ted Jacoby. Let’s dive in. We’ve got a special treat for you this week. We’re gonna drop the director’s cut of this podcast where we include some of the conversations that usually get edited out: how we debate internally about some of these market dynamics. So, stay tuned after the end of the podcast and listen to the off-takes. My name is Ted Jacoby, CEO of T.C. Jacoby & Co., and joining me today is Jacob Menge, our Vice President of Risk Management and Trading Strategy, Josh White, our Vice President of Dairy Ingredients, and Joe Maixner, our Director of Sales. We are in week three of a very high level of volatility in the dairy markets. We’ve had a very interesting last few weeks. It’s February 9th, and since January 15th, our Class III March futures are up 18%. Our [00:01:00] March cheese futures are up over 15%. Butter futures are up over 26%. nonfat futures up 37% and Class IV milk futures up 36%. These markets have not gone up in a straight line. There’s been a massive amount of volatility, a lot of green, a lot of red, and then a lot of green, and then a lot of red again, enough to make all of us who talk these markets on a daily and an hourly basis to be flat out exhausted. The question becomes, what’s causing this level of volatility?  We are gonna talk a little bit about market psychology. Why can markets do what they’ve done in the last three weeks, and why our actual fundamental market analysis hasn’t really changed that much.  To quote the famous British economist, John Maynard Keynes, “Markets can remain irrational far longer than you and I can remain solvent.” And I’ll tell you that the last three weeks reminded me repeatedly of that phrase. It serves as a warning against over leveraging or trying to fight the tape, trading against trends, suggesting that just because you are right about a trend’s [00:02:00] long-term direction, it’s useless if you run out of capital. Ted Jacoby III: And I have a feeling that based on what we’ve been experiencing lately, there’s probably a few people out there that exactly that happened to. It has been wild and crazy every day for the last three weeks. Jake, why do markets do this? Jacob Menge: You threw out your little soundbite anecdotes. We will pull out some more of ’em during those podcasts, I’m sure, because those are all written by people that have been burned by short squeezes like we’re seeing, right? One that sticks out to me is: volatility is the tax you pay for liquidity and leverage, and that’s what futures markets are, right? They are a way for people to express their opinion on price action. Obviously, even a hedger is in some way expressing an opinion using futures or options. They’re highly liquid. You don’t even have to pay full price for ’em because you only gotta put up that margin upfront. And again, volatility is usually the tax that you pay for that. When you have this easy leverage, and everybody can get on one side of the boat you can’t have your cake and eat it, too. You can’t [00:03:00] have tight spreads, you can’t have the leverage and smooth prices all at the same time. And that can result in things like short squeezes. We were primed for one. You’re right, we had low volatility. We had a lot of people that were short the market because that was the prevailing narrative. As a result, all it took was one little spark to set some pretty dry kindling ablaze. That’s exactly what we saw, especially on the nonfat side. I’ll pull out my second anecdote. I’ve always heard: squeezes are flow events first, narrative events second. That’s exactly what was going on with nonfat. Meaning we get this massive bullish order flow coming in. The market goes up 30%+ in a few week period, and it’s only after that happens that all of a sudden we start having these conversations of, well, what was everybody missing in nonfat? I think the market probably was missing something on the nonfat side. But at the end of the day when you have volatility near lows, volume that was [00:04:00] fairly average, it makes sense that really the only way to go is gonna be up. If there’s any kind of news. And the news this time turns out there’s a whole lot less nonfat out there than people probably expected. And away we go. And it turns into this snowball where there’s the first people to see that and start wanting to buy, and the second they start wanting to buy, turns out there’s not a whole lot of sellers there, because everybody that wanted to sell already had sold. You get that first nice air pocket jump higher. That really is that first domino where if you’re a market maker, say, and you need to hedge your book, you’re trying to run a delta neutral trading book as a market maker, you might say, “Okay, well hey, I need to go get some long delta myself.” And you might go try to buy some options, to buy calls, to offset that. And then all of a sudden the market maker that is selling the calls want more for the calls than they wanted just a day ago. Ted Jacoby III: A day ago? Try an hour ago. Jacob Menge: Yeah, an hour ago. Truly. And so [00:05:00] that would be what we call implied volatility. Right. And I think that’s one important distinction here is we have volatility, what we call realized volatility, which is what the market actually did, like how crazy the market is, and then implied volatility, basically what the market is charging for options usually and implying what the market thinks the volatility will be in the future. And that’s where it gets really fun because even though we didn’t have a lot of realized volatility, if the market thinks it’s gonna become volatile and starts charging more for these options, it can almost be a self-fulfilling prophecy, right? Because now you have to pay more to buy that insurance policy, and you can see how that snowball really can grow fairly fast. We have one other really  fun part in dairy markets that I can’t help but mention, and that is that we also have spot markets. Those spot markets indirectly are linked to the futures prices because of our National Dairy Products Sales Report (NDPSR) system. And so we [00:06:00] can really wind up with the tail wagging the dog in our futures markets and in our spot markets where, say the spot markets were driving the ship on the way down. People had a lot of products, they’re selling them. Well, all of a sudden, if we start getting a little bit of a squeeze in our futures markets, now if you have product, you don’t wanna sell it on the exchange, you wanna just hold onto it and capture the carry in the futures curve. And so you’re not gonna sell. And so any bidder on the spot auction has to bid it higher. And guess what? Now the futures see the spot auction being bid up and they say, “Well, well, we are right to be panicking. We need to go higher.” And that’s just pouring gasoline on the fire. We’ve already got a raging inferno at this point, but that adds the final pour of gasoline. Ted Jacoby III: You remind me of one of my learning moments 20 some odd, almost 30 years ago, when I was watching these markets, as the futures markets were just becoming relevant to the dairy industry. And it was the realization that futures markets and spot markets are [00:07:00] two different markets with a different set of drivers of supply and demand. On the spot market, supply is, let’s talk about butter, is the supply of 80% bulk butter. Demand is the demand for that 80% bulk butter. The futures butter markets, it may settle to that NDPSR price of the bulk butter market, but the reality is the supply is the number of people who are willing to sell those futures, and the demand is the number of people that are willing to buy those futures. And so you can have people coming into the market that really don’t care at all about how much block butter are out there because they’re actually trying to hedge cream cheese or a chocolate shake or something completely different that has butter in it, but they need to own those futures, and that futures market can move quite a bit and has nothing to do with the actual supply and demand of the market it’s based on. Jacob Menge: Anecdote number three. I always have heard squeezes feel irrational because risk systems are mechanical. And I think that is true here, right? You have stops in place. A lot of [00:08:00] companies will have risk management policies that say, “Hey if VAR gets to a certain point, you have to get out of your position.” Or on the opposite side, you have to hedge your product if something has happened, or you have to hedge your buy price if the market hits a certain threshold. And so, that can really send the market in the short run to some areas that feel irrational, but again, it’s because the systems behind it are mechanical sometimes and not even human. Obviously, the human factor makes things even spicier. But once your mechanical stops have all been hit, and the party is coming to an end very, very rarely — I’m struggling to think of one short squeeze I’ve ever seen — that actually goes to the top and then just starts trading sideways. It is almost always an overshoot and a retracement back down to some level. And that is really where our different volatilities really matter because on that collapse back to reality, and reality can [00:09:00] be very different than where we started, just to be clear, if nonfat started at a $1.20, and we go way up to a $1.60, and then settle at a $1.40, we’re still 20¢ higher than where we started. So, don’t get me wrong, right? Short squeezes, there’s usually some fundamentals behind it, but it’s that blow off top that we might say feels super, super irrational. And again, we’ll have kind of this realized volatility going higher as we are going up and going down. But the more interesting thing in my opinion is that as we’re doing that retracement off of this super high blow off top, implied volatility tends to drift lower. That’s actually an important concept to really understand because as implied volatility is moving lower with the market moving lower, it gives the market breathing room, and that is the point where we can really find equilibrium and come out at maybe the price we should have been three months ago, but [00:10:00] shouldn’t have been last week during that crazy short covering rally. Josh White: Hey guys, what should we make of the fact that our least volatile product over the past, I mean, what decade, 20 years, is the most volatile right now? Or is it is nonfat technically the most volatile product? That’s it. Ted Jacoby III: It is. Josh White: Yep, Ted Jacoby III: it is. Josh White: What should we make of that? I mean, that to me should be the definition of a market cycle change, right? Do we believe that? Joe Maixner: If the market with historically the lowest amount of volatility now has the highest amount of volatility, does that mean that there is a structural change in the way that the market is operating? Jacob Menge: Yes. This might mean regime change for the nonfat market. But we’ve also had these other short squeezes in butter, in Class III. We’re still in a volatile period, but those could just be because we have algorithms keeping Class III and Class IV in check. We’re pondering the question: is there this regime change in nonfat from a low volatility commodity to a high volatility commodity? It’s probably too early to tell. My [00:11:00] guess would be yes, we’re not gonna go back to this boring state nonfat had been in, because it’s just a very evolving market with what we’re seeing on the protein beverage side, you name it: the market’s doing a really good job of taking a boring commodity and finding these new, exciting uses for it. And, and so it kind of passes the sniff test. What probably doesn’t pass the sniff test is what we’re seeing on the other commodities right now: butter and just the Class III products, frankly, I should say cheese in general. What we’re seeing right now with those is they’re following along with the nonfat rally. This really seems to me like nonfat is in the driver’s seat. And I think there’s pretty logical explanations for why we’re seeing cheese and butter do what they’re doing along with nonfat. We’ve got algorithms that trade spreads within our market, right? We do have a crushable commodity. We can take Class III, Class IV, and break it down into its components. As a result, [00:12:00] there’s some opinions on, say the Class III, Class IV spread. And so if we get this massive rally in nonfat, well then any algorithm that’s trading the Class IV crush is probably dragging butter along with it. And now we’ve got Class IV rallying, and there’s probably other algorithms and other people with opinions in the market on what that Class III, Class IV spread should be. And so, even if the absolute price is seeming outta whack there’s enough people with opinions on maybe spreads or calendar spreads or what have you, that are causing the reactions that we’re seeing. Ted Jacoby III: This is the scenario that I can imagine. Everybody has been short, pretty much all of the dairy markets for about six months now. Maybe it took other people longer than it took us to realize that there was gonna be too much milk out there all over the world. But by the time we got to the second week in January, I think everybody who wanted to be short this market already was. Then people started to realize that maybe they weren’t entirely right about the nonfat market. Kind of makes sense if you think [00:13:00] about what we’ve been talking about over the last six months, which is: too much butterfat, too much cheese, but protein’s still really in good demand. Guess what? Nonfat is 34% protein. So, all of a sudden people realized, shoot, maybe the nonfat market has a different dynamic to it and it might need to go up so they start buying it. Well, that causes the Class IV market to go up. And if you have insurance companies that are part of the DLP program that are short this Class IV market, then all of a sudden it’s going the other direction on ’em and they need to go figure out how to get some length in the Class IV market. But shoot, they can’t find any liquidity in the Class IV market. So, instead they’re gonna buy nonfat and they’re gonna buy butter. Now think about it. Now they’re gonna go buy butter. Everybody that wanted to be sure at the butter market is already sure at the butter market. There aren’t any sellers left in the butter market because everybody already did their selling. And so now they’re buying butter, driving the butter market up. And then the last few people who sold the butter market, those who were late to the party, all of a sudden are noticing their margin accounts go negative. Now they’ve gotta throw in the [00:14:00] cash. Maybe they don’t have the financial resources to fund a margin call. And so now they have to buy their futures back, and all of a sudden it becomes this domino, forcing more and more people, for one reason or another, to have to buy back their positions. The next thing you know, you’re up 26%, even though the reality is supply and demand to butterfat, not just in the U.S., but frankly, probably in the world, hasn’t changed one bit in the last three weeks, and that’s why we’re up 26% right now. Jacob Menge: Crowded trades don’t break because they’re wrong. They break because they’re crowded. Ted Jacoby III: I like that. I haven’t heard that one before. I like that . So what happens next? You talk about markets being in strong hands and weak hands. Moments like this force everybody who is a weak hand out of the market, and so the only people left with a position in the market are the ones in strong hands. Does the market go back, and I’m thinking butter, not necessarily nonfat. I think we were all in agreement that the nonfat market has probably had somewhat of a dynamic change. I don’t know if it’s a 36% change, but it’s had [00:15:00] somewhat of a change. But now the butter market, which really probably hasn’t had the same amount of change, the supply and demand for butterfat probably is the same thing it was four weeks ago. And I don’t think you’re gonna find many people out there who are arguing that butter needs to be at $2, like the current March futures say it should be. So what happens in the butter market next? Does it go back to where it was? How do these short squeezes usually play out? Jacob Menge: As an economist, I will say the markets are a perfect system and they will find the exact right price where buyers and sellers meet and everybody is happy. The reality is, short squeezes are really good for hitting the reset button and finding a new equilibrium. And sometimes that is right back to where they started. Sometimes that is closer to the top of the squeeze than the bottom. I think we’re still in that reset period. I don’t think we know where equilibrium is on all of our commodities. It’s gonna still take some time, right? [00:16:00] Because let’s just run with the theory of cheese is gonna go back to where we kinda started all this thing in the $1.40s on the futures. It’s gonna take time for sellers to step back in the market and chew through all this new buy-side liquidity. This buy-side liquidity can come from risk management plans that are in place. And so it just takes time to find that equilibrium. But that is in theory what the market’s going through. Ted Jacoby III: I wanted to have this kind of a conversation because the reality is this was one of those where there’s a lot of people out there right now, they’ve got about half the hair they used to have. Jacob Menge: I don’t think we made them feel any better. Ted Jacoby III: Unfortunately. I know. Stay tuned for the deleted scenes from this podcast.  And now the director’s cut. Josh White: Protein’s demand has absolutely changed. Ted Jacoby III: All along we were saying protein demand was strong. To me, this is more about butter than it is about nonfat. Why in the world [00:17:00] is butter up 30¢? Jacob Menge: I think we need to gut check every single model we have in any spreadsheet anywhere. Josh White: A hundred percent. Jacob Menge: Because it’s a new era. Ted Jacoby III: I would argue though that, I mean, we can talk all day long about whether or not our market analysis is right or wrong, but the reality is this was everybody’s market analysis. Josh White: That’s the point we’re making. Ted Jacoby III: I think the irony is, I think the short squeeze had absolutely nothing to do with underestimating how much protein was going to fluid. I think it started for a completely different reason, but once it started moving, we all started looking harder at our analysis. And said, “Man, maybe we’re missing something,” and then actually found it. Josh White: That’s the part that I’m struggling with is I’m actually thinking butter’s easier to rationalize in my mind than nonfat. I think nonfat is a bigger story right now than anything else because butter, what’s the elasticity of demand? And there’s a shift in it because we’re exporting again. Yeah, it’s making it hard for us to measure, but we definitely have been cheaper. And so for it [00:18:00] to be buoying around for price discovery, to try to find that new equilibrium with seasonality, with different products and all that, to me that’s actually easier for me to understand. Like it drops from a price that was significantly higher. Upper twos even pushing three and exceeding three for a short amount of time all the way down to a $1.50. If we don’t think there would be some demand response to that globally and that we would have some retracement or volatility for the opposite reasons that nonfat is probably going too high and gonna have to retrace lower. That to me, like I don’t think we should be super shocked that butter’s doing that. You know what I mean? Like trying to find its equilibrium. To me that’s easier to explain. Ted Jacoby III: Completely agree with everything you’re saying, but I would say this. What we’re arguing about butter is, it’s a vagueness of knowing the balance where the equilibrium price is. We’re just bouncing around trying to find it. I think that’s different from what happened in nonfat. I think with nonfat, the market, the physical market itself, literally [00:19:00] couldn’t get what it wanted. Joe, did we ever have a moment when we couldn’t get the butter we wanted? Before the run started, could you get all the butter you wanted? Joe Maixner: Not off exchange. Josh White: Not 80% fresh salted product. It was being hoarded, right? Joe Maixner: There’s multiple facets to this, right? Like yes, you cannot get any 80% fresh salt right now. But we’re also struggling on getting any old crop, 80% salt off of exchange right now because the old crop situation is much different than it was back when old crop was an actual market mover. Five years ago, all the old crop butter was only at a 12 month shelf life on domestic salted. Everyone’s gone to a 18 or 24 month shelf life. So the product’s still good off exchange for a lot longer than it used to be. So nobody’s out there needing to technically dump it at this point in time if you don’t have a sale for it, because you could still use it off exchange. For a brief period, yes, the salted market got tight, but it’s also because we had the carry in [00:20:00] the market that we had, right? We had the 20¢, 30¢ carry in the market. So, whether you had new crop, old crop, whatever, why would you sell it at a $1.35 in January when you could sell it for a $1.75 a $1.80 in March at that time? Now, we’ve come down, you know, now we’re at a $1.83 in March right now, but at one point we were at $2.00 on March futures with this rally. It’s simple economics. You can carry the products for 3¢ a month and you can make 14¢ to 25¢ depending on the month you wanna sell it in or you let it go for way too cheap. Ted Jacoby III: I hear you. But to me, that’s wholesaler math, that’s trader math. At the end user level, at the people who consume butter, has there been a fundamental shift in how much butter is being consumed? Joe Maixner: No, I don’t think so. Ted Jacoby III: Whereas I think when we’re talking about nonfat and especially the protein in nonfat, I think there has been. It actually manifested itself as a lower amount of supply in nonfat. But I think what’s happened is we were [00:21:00] taking that protein away from the nonfat dryer and using it somewhere else. Whereas with butter, I don’t think that’s happened. Joe Maixner: No, but at the same time, I think that there’s similarities between butter and nonfat, whereas people came into this year structurally short. They didn’t contract because they anticipated the supply to be there. Ted Jacoby III: And then everybody showed up, that’s essentially being short the market. Joe Maixner: Yeah. Ted Jacoby III: When I talk about how everybody who wanted to be short this market was already short this market, so there were no more sellers left to sell. So when somebody wanted to start buying, there was nobody to sell. Joe Maixner: I mean, ultimately you’re just explaining the classic short squeeze. Ted Jacoby III: Right? To me though, that is what we’re dealing with. That’s what we’ve been dealing with right now. That’s what the short squeeze is. It wasn’t just everybody was short this market. Then they were ready to start buying ’cause the market was low enough. Then they found there wasn’t anybody left to buy from ’cause everybody had already sold everything they wanted to sell. And that caused the short squeeze, without any real rationality of there being a fundamental change in demand or supply. It was all at the wholesale [00:22:00] level. Whereas with nonfat, I would argue that the market came to a realization that we were pulling protein away from the dryer to sell it into liquid UF, causing a fundamental shift in the actual supply and demand balance, whereas I don’t necessarily think that happened with butter. With butter, I think it was just the noise in the middle of people making choices about being long or short of market. I don’t, am I making any sense? Joe Maixner: I think you’re getting to the point where you’re talking in circles, if I’m being honest. Ted Jacoby III: To me there’s a difference between talking tactics and talking trading strategy and talking about a fundamental supply demand analysis. Josh White: I think it’ll make a compelling podcast for those that are wondering what’s going on. I genuinely mean that. Ted Jacoby III: We might actually want to have the 15 minute version of talking about what happened in market psychology. Then have an appendix to it capturing the discussion as to what is the real difference between what’s going on in butter and nonfat. Josh White: Or how do [00:23:00] these guys communicate when the makeup’s off? Joe Maixner: I think we leave, I think we leave it all in.

Nonfat prices have moved sharply higher in recent weeks. But the rally isn’t being driven by a sudden surge in demand. It’s being driven by a breakdown in where milk is actually flowing. In this episode of The Milk Check, Ted Jacoby III and the Jacoby team unpack insights coming out of the IDFA Dairy Forum in Palm Springs and explain why nonfat prices have surged nearly 25 cents in just weeks, even as milk production remains strong. The issue isn’t price resistance. It’s availability. Milk that the market expected to move into dryers is instead being diverted into cheese plants, ultra-filtration, whey proteins and other higher-value protein streams. As a result, powder supply is far tighter than headline production numbers suggest. Layer in heavy short positioning, processing disruptions, and new offtake agreements, and the market begins to resemble a classic short squeeze. In this conversation, the team breaks down what’s actually driving NDFM and why higher prices haven’t unlocked new supply. We cover: How protein economics are pulling milk away from powder Why rising milk production hasn’t translated into greater availability Key structural differences between the U.S., Europe, and New Zealand Where the market may find its next equilibrium, and what could disrupt it If you’re relying on historical assumptions about nonfat availability, this episode explains why those assumptions may no longer hold. Listen to The Milk Check to understand what the evolving nonfat landscape means for pricing risk, exports and coverage decisions ahead. Available below or on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Amazon Podcasts or YouTube. Got questions? We'd love to hear them. Submit below, and we might answer it on the show. Ask The Milk Check Jacob Menge: [00:00:00] There are just so many of these long-held assumptions, things that people who have been in the industry a while probably have, like, “Well, my gut tells me this.” Question your gut. Ted Jacoby III: Welcome to the Milk Check from T.C. Jacoby and Company, your complete guide to dairy markets, from the milking parlor to the supermarket shelf. I’m Ted Jacoby. Let’s dive in. It is January 30th. We’ve all just got back from the Dairy Forum in Palm Springs, where it was a hell of a lot warmer than it is here in frigid St. Louis, Missouri. Joining me today is Diego Carvallo, the head of our international sales team and our head non -fat dry milk trader. We have Josh White, head of our dairy ingredients group, Jacob Menge, our VP of risk Management and Trading Strategy, and Mike Brown, VP of Jacoby Dairy Market Intelligence. Guys, welcome. What did we learn in Palm Springs? I think the biggest thing that came out of our visit and running into everybody at the Dairy Forum is that nonfat dry milk and skim milk powder really is tight. We have a short squeeze going on in the nonfat dry milk [00:01:00] market. The market is up. I think it’s 25 cents in the last three weeks. I’ll let Diego explain to everybody what’s really going on in the nonfat market right now. Diego? Diego Carvallo: Ted, that’s a very loaded question right now. Everybody’s scratching their heads. As of right now, today, Friday the 30th, the market just closed. The whole strip is limit up — 4 cents up. I think I hadn’t seen this in quite some time. IDFA was very interesting for a lot of people to discover why the spot market has been tight for this long and have good discussions on what the outlook looks like. Let’s start with the fundamentals. I think a few things are helping this market and supporting it and pushing it higher. The first one is what a lot of people are discussing, which is the amount of UF being produced in regions like the Midwest. We all know that many of the plants have installed new capacity to have UF sales, and those solids are in great demand [00:02:00] for cheese fortification right now. So that’s one of the reasons why the Midwest especially feeling this tight. Another reason is that the majority of the people who speculate with this market, and it goes from traders to manufacturers and even distributors, most of them have been short, expecting this market to move lower during the spring flush. I remember a few months ago, the speculation was that we were gonna break the $1. And, it seems like everybody got short, physical and in the screen, and that market, obviously, whenever we saw a bounce, everybody ran to cover their shorts, right? Another reason is that we saw a few interruptions in processing capacity, especially in California during the months of November. I think that also contributed to the tightness in the market without even getting into the conversation of new [00:03:00] offtake agreements that have taken up this year. So I think those are the main contributors to this market moving higher, and I think it’s something that is mainly affecting the U.S. The rest of the market is following through. I think this scenario is very different when you talk about European and New Zealand production. It’s even different when you see the U.S., the West Coast versus the rest of the country. Ted Jacoby III: Tell me about Europe. I know Europe started acting tight a little bit before the U.S., but what’s going on in Europe? Nonfat, dry milk and skim milk powder is probably our most global market when it comes to dairy. Diego Carvallo: So, Europe had a couple of large tenders that took place, I think that was beginning of January. So, the infamous O’Neill tender and a few similar tenders that usually move a lot of product. Those tenders took place, and I think it helped clear some of the excess product that was available in the market. But I think in Europe we had a similar situation where most of the traders, most [00:04:00] of the end users and manufacturers, everybody was expecting prices to move lower, right? Whenever we saw these tenders coming and the market slightly turned less bearish, I think everybody ran also to cover their shorts. But the situation in Europe has not been as bullish as it has in the U.S. The spread between the U.S. and Europe when it comes to skim has in fact widened as of right now. Europe is also feeling the support. Definitely. It’s in part driven by the U.S. rally. Ted Jacoby III: Well, that makes sense. I can tell you I had conversations with a few different manufacturers while I was at IDFA. And the best way I can sum up what the feeling was there’s a couple of dryers on the East Coast. Those dryers at this point are not expecting to ever run full this year, not even at the height of the flush, because there’s three new plants at various stages of development. There’s a new cheese plant in New York. There is a Fair Life milk plant in New York, and then ultimately a yogurt plant in New [00:05:00] York. All three of those plants are gonna need the milk. It’s gonna come at the expense of the powder plants in that area. You look at the Southwest in Texas again, you’ve got two new cheese plants that are still in the midst of ramping up. They are getting first dibs on the milk at the expense of the nonfat dry milk plants down there. So those plants are gonna get the milk that they expected. And there’s another nonfat plant that pretty much has turned a 100%, to Diego’s point that’s turned a 100% of their milk supply into skim UF that they’re supplying to various sources. And that plant is running the ultra filtration unit full. So, that plant isn’t drying anything. You got a couple of dryers in the Michigan area. They’re not running as full as usually, but it’s more of a domino effect there. I have a hunch as you get into the flush, those dryers may fill up. But you’ve got four other dryers, maybe five that aren’t. Now you go over to the west coast: California, those are drying. But California alone, as big as it is, is not enough to offset how much milk is not running into the dryers in the [00:06:00] rest of the country. And then you’ve got the Northwest, where there has been a lot of milk lost in the Northwest. And so that dryer isn’t running as full as probably previously expected. What happened was everybody just got together, finally started talking when they were all together in Palm Springs, and they realized when they did the math, even if we’re up 4.4% in milk production, we’re not drying more nonfat. Those skim solids are going elsewhere for various reasons. Diego Carvallo: The biggest question right now, Ted, is the lack of product in the Midwest and East Coast could balance out the lack of exports that we’re gonna have from this price rally. The numbers say that demand is approximately 60 million pounds. That number, it’s probably only 2% to 3% of U.S. nonfat production. So, it doesn’t seem like a huge number, but when you compare it to exports it is quite a volume. Ted Jacoby III: It really does add up. Yeah, no, I would agree with that. Jacob Menge: It sounds based on what Ted had just laid out and what you had said earlier, Diego, that this [00:07:00] isn’t necessarily a demand-driven rally. It’s really a lack-of-supply-driven rally. Ted Jacoby III: Yeah. A lack-of-supply-driven rally in an environment where everybody was expecting oversupply and kind of got caught surprised when they realized that even though there’s more milk, it didn’t fully translate to more powder. Jacob Menge: So, what changes it? Price? How long? What does end game here look like? Based on what I’m hearing, sounds to me like there’s almost not a price that is all of a sudden going to bring more supply out of the woodwork. So, is there a price that kills demand? People say, “Hey, we can’t make this number work anymore?” Ted Jacoby III: I think, actually, Diego just framed it a few minutes ago in the right way. This lost production that we were expecting, is it enough to make up for the fact that international demand for nonfat and skim milk powder isn’t actually that great? I think he’s hit the nail on the head. Let’s face it, skim milk powder, nonfat, dry milk is kind of the ultimate dairy commodity, which means it’s more price sensitive than others. And we’re gonna get to a point when we’re gonna find out where that [00:08:00] equilibrium point is between demand and supply. Josh White: There’s a few things that could tilt the scales a bit that I think we should just pay a little bit of attention to at the moment. You made a comment earlier that the production outta California isn’t enough to satisfy what we’re losing in terms of powder in the rest of the country. I wonder though, as we seasonally ramp up our milk volumes in the U.S., if we don’t satisfy that difference at a certain moment. I’m certainly not suggesting that that should make us all bearish. But I do think that there’s something worth noting there. Jake, you made a comment a moment ago that it doesn’t sound like there’s a price that slows it down. That same phenomenon is happening in Europe right now, and I think that Europe is also gonna seasonally increase their supply. They’ve got a lot of additional powder and there is a price out there that people substitute. There is a price out there at which you price out international demand. What we’ve gotta try to reconcile is all of this additional demand for skim solids in the U.S. is [00:09:00] that replacing our need to be an exporter of skim solids? I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but it feels like a reach to believe that we’re consuming enough to take away our need to compete internationally for skim demand. So that’s one thing that might just put a little bit of a seasonal ceiling on this thing as we move forward. The real question is, does that actually tilt us into a surplus situation again, or not? Big question that we should get our arms around. Additionally, I think that there is substitution within dairy. For the longest time, skim solids are very, very cheap. And as mentioned, the fortification into the cheese vat has been a pretty clear decision. When butterfat dropped to the price levels that it did, it makes a whole lot of sense to fortify. As these skim prices move a bit higher and dependent on our cheese price outlook going forward, does that math shift at all? I’ve heard arguments on both sides that the math does matter, and I’ve also heard arguments that the math really doesn’t matter. It’s all about [00:10:00] optimizing put through in the vat. So yeah, I think those are interesting topics for us to debate because those are the things that might tilt the market one way or the other. Ted Jacoby III: When it comes to skim solids versus butterfat in the vat, and let’s not forget, with the increase in solids in the milk, especially in butterfat, you’ve gotten the ratio of protein to fat outta whack, which is driving an increased need of skim solids into the cheese vat. The real math is: do you sell the cream or you divide the UF milk? Well, guess what? The UF milk is getting a lot more expensive right now. And so, you can make the case that you might actually force yourself to be comfortable selling the cream because it’s really a question of do you overpay for the skim solids or do you lose money on the butterfat if you sell the butterfat. At lower butter prices, for a couple of different reasons, you need a higher multiple on the cream in order to sell it. And one of the big ones is cost of freight as a percentage of the butterfat price has gone way up. You compare a $1.50 butter to $3 butter and on a percentage basis, your freight costs are twice as much [00:11:00] now. Which ultimately, when it comes to surplus cream, will drive down the multiple that you’ll receive for the cream. Josh White: You know, I don’t wanna shift gears, but I do wanna spend a moment just thinking about the milk production response and if our outlook shifted a little bit over the past month or two. ’cause going into the end of the year, it seemed like the U.S. and Europe were on a collision course, a game of chicken to decide who’s gonna be the first to drop price enough to see milk production slow down. Our global milk production, what is it up like 3.8% or something like that going into the end of the year on a solids basis, and no real sign of major change in the first half of the year, other than some signaling from European companies to lower their milk price and try to slow things down. Is this recent rally, whether it’s a short covering rally or whether it’s temporary, is this pushing out that response, whether it’s in Europe or the U.S., even further than we previously thought? Ted Jacoby III: I feel pretty comfortable saying no. And the reason I feel pretty [00:12:00] comfortable saying no, is for a couple of reasons. The biggest one is nonfat milk production is less than 15% of the milk supply of the U.S. And so, this rally in nonfat prices, it’s affecting less than 15% of the milk supply. Translated over a 100% of the milk supply, it’s not that big a number. I’m not sure it moves the dial a huge amount. Maybe I should back up a little bit because it’s now the higher of Class III and Class IV and Class I, and Class IV was trailing Class III by a dollar and now Class IV is ahead of Class III because of this rally. So yes, you’re starting to drive up prices there, too, so maybe it is helping the dairy farmer in a couple of places. While I agree that you’ve gotten a sympathy rally with cheese and butter, unlike nonfat, there’s more than enough butter and there’s more than enough cheese out there. And so we don’t actually see a true challenge to accessing supply with those two. So, while you may see increased futures levels at the moment, I’m not sure that’s going [00:13:00] to translate for a long enough period of time, the increased price levels for those products. Josh White: Just to play devil’s advocate, I think if you ask the market if fresh production of butter was readily available, the answer might be no. Ted Jacoby III: It’s either one of two things. There’s a lot of 82% being made for export. Or you’ve got 30¢ to 40¢ of carry in the futures market, and if I’m a butter manufacturer, and I’ve got any kind of working capital, I’m making 80%, I’m parking it in my own warehouse, I’m hedging it out to capture that extra 40¢, and I’m telling everybody I’m sold out. Well, guess what? That butterfat is still available. Once you get past the old crop, new crop March 1st date, that math changes, that’s only a month away. And I would even say you’re talking about the shortest month of the year, too. Josh White: Cheese has the same forward curve right now. Maybe not quite as dramatic, but a pretty good healthy contango going forward. What’s different about the cheese market? Ted Jacoby III: Cheese has a tendency to have carry in it when prices are low. The market is more used to this kind of carry in [00:14:00] cheese. Jacob Menge: The shelf life too. Ted, I mean Ted Jacoby III: that’s, that’s, well, that’s right. That’s the second one is cheese ages. And so six month old cheese is a different product than 30 day old cheese. With butter, there’s a reason why the CME rules for butter is up to 12 months after December 1st production. Whereas with cheese, it’s basically a 30 day market. And that has to do with how the product changes over time as it ages. Josh White: When we’re thinking about the cheese market, we’re talking about the U.S. milk production being up, year over year a lot. We throw a little salt on that because we recognize we’re comparing against bird flu impacted regions a year ago, but still lot more milk solids. Lot more butterfat out there. But at the same time, we’ve added plenty of Class III processing capacity, at least through the middle part of America to process quite a bit more milk. How is the whey component playing into this right now? Do we think these plants are gonna be highly motivated to fill up because of the return they’re getting for the whey [00:15:00] products, despite the cheese, situation you just mentioned, or are we really testing that desire to wanna fill up some of these plants as milk volumes pick up seasonally here in the state? Ted Jacoby III: So I can answer that question with the same answer two different ways. The first is: Please don’t forget that the Class III price ultimately insulates cheese manufacturers from major movements in price. If they’re having to sell all that cheese at a substantial discount to the market, they could be losing money making the cheese, but the reality is if they sell it anywhere close to the CME price, it’s still gonna be a net profit or at least a net break even for them on the cheese side. Meanwhile, if they have a whey protein dryer and they’re making WPC 80 to your WPC 90, Josh as you well know, as our primary whey trader, those are very, very profitable for cheese plants right now with the prices as high as they are. Josh White: Unprecedented. Mike Brown: Gives them a little room with a higher class IV price because of that return [00:16:00] from whey to pay a little more than the spread might normally indicate that they would. Just as a point of reference, if you look the most recent dairy production numbers we have products is for November, but Southwest was down 25% I think, in overall nonfat dry milk production. And they were 70% of the decrease over last year. Ted Jacoby III: Yep. Mike Brown: And you still have some plants filling up down there. Although, again, we’ll see what happens with this spread. But to the point we’ve all made earlier, it is a supply issue. And there’s no question those south central cheese plants in Kansas and Texas are a big part of the reason that there’s less milk going into powder. Ted Jacoby III: I had someone earlier today make a comment, and I never quite thought of it this way. He was actually talking about cheese, but I think the exact same thing goes for powder plants. Because the solids in the milk is up, they need less loads of milk to make the same amount of powder. And the bottleneck in the process a lot of times is not the milk receiving bay. So it literally means they have to take in less milk to get there. If you’re out in California, those bottlenecks are limiting how much milk they can [00:17:00] process. In the Southwest, they’re not. Josh White: Right. Ted Jacoby III: But demand for protein, I’ll frame it this way: We’re seeing huge increases in demand for whey proteins. We’re seeing increases in demand for milk proteins. We’re seeing increases in demand for UF milk, not just by cheese plants, but by ready to drink milk bottlers, as well, who really wanna sell that high protein milk. And that is what’s driving all of this. And it’s driving it away from the nonfat dryer, and it’s driving it towards cheese, which is a source of protein, whether it’s cheese or it’s the whey that comes off the cheese. It’s driving it towards those UF milk plants. It’s driving it towards milk protein concentrate plants. It’s really all about that huge increasing demand for protein that’s driving this. I don’t think it’s that hard to make the correlation that this big increase in the demand for dairy proteins across the dairy spectrum is what’s causing this powder market to be tight. Because it’s pulling milk away [00:18:00] from the nonfat dryer. Mike Brown: Yeah. And certainly, you have a fair amount of MPC capacity, certainly in New Mexico. If you can make a protein, you’re making a protein, I think, whether it’s milk or whey.Ted Jacoby III: I think that’s exactly right. So, Diego, where do we end? We were below a $1.20 three weeks ago. We’re at a $1.46 today. Are we gonna get to a $1.60? Diego Carvallo: Ted, I do know that the $1.40 is a strong psychological resistance and the futures are very close to it. I’m gonna monitor it. I don’t know how high we can go. At this point, it seems like a train, and I’m not gonna step in front of it. $1.50 is not impossible at this moment, but at the same time, I could tell you that we could have a strong correction also. So, very difficult to read right now. Ted Jacoby III: We just talked about a real nice rally going on in nonfat. The rally we think is because the demand for protein is pulling milk away from the nonfat dryer. Meanwhile, I think we have more than enough butter, though it may not be available yet, in terms of new crop, 80% butter sellable on the [00:19:00] CME. We think that we’re gonna have more than enough cheese, colored cheddar, which tends to be the product that drives price on the cheese side. So, even though we have had a rally in both of those products in futures, we’re not as strong of believers in the cheese market and the butter market as we are in the nonfat market right now. So, before we wrap up, we’re gonna do a quick lightning round question. We just came out of the Dairy Forum. We had many, many conversations with a lot of different people. What is the one thing happening in the dairy market right now that we think people are overlooking? Josh, I’m gonna start with you. Josh White: The reshaping of how milk trades across the country. I’m certainly not in the best position versus our milk team to address that, but the changes in where we can process milk, how we can process milk, and who’s demanding the milk is reshaping how things move. And I think that’s gonna test some of our experience and historical expectations for how a market responds to some of the signals we’re seeing now. I mean, let’s be real clear. Over the past 24 months, we’ve been surprised as a [00:20:00] dairy industry by two major things. It was not that long ago that you couldn’t get enough fat. The dairymen responded and it surprised the market, I think, to a point where now we’re expecting to be a fat exporter for a while. On the other side, if we go back, not even 60 days ago, the argument was will nonfat break a dollar? Or not. And today, we’re talking about it being a very firm market and citing a bunch of reasons why that happened. And the market, I believe, was surprised by that. So, if you’re a buyer out there, don’t assume that these markets can’t change and change fast. Definitely make sure you’re preparing yourselves for that because we just went through multiple years where there was almost no risk of getting access to nonfat supply, and we’re getting phone calls now where people need coverage right now and are having difficulties doing so. Ted Jacoby III: Thanks Josh. Mike, how about you? What’s something that nobody’s talking about right now that we probably should be paying attention to? Mike Brown: I think from the standpoint of the cheesemaker and that cost of those [00:21:00] protein solids is a three four spread flipping significantly. We’re $2 the other way again now. That cost of fortification has gone up a lot. Even with a $12 WPI market. That’s a big number to work with. And I think just in general, the growth in demand, whether it’s ultra filtered protein, fluid products, or the new cheese capacity we underestimated how that would hit the supply of nonfat dry milk, and we’re now living that. Ted Jacoby III: Excellent. Thanks Mike. Diego, how about you? Diego Carvallo: I have two things. One is the dollar weakness is something I haven’t heard a lot of people talking about and how that influences the prices for all commodities. And the second one is, I think a lot of people might be overlooking Mexican milk production. Ted Jacoby III: Up or down. Is it good or bad? Diego Carvallo: From informal reports, it could be strongly up. Ted Jacoby III: Okay. That would not be good for nonfat prices, would it? Diego Carvallo: Correct. Yep. Ted Jacoby III: Jake, how about you? Jacob Menge: I’ll go with just the upending of all kinds of long held assumptions. If you’ve got calculators you’ve been [00:22:00] using, dairy market calculators, between the milk price formula changes between dollar weakness changing between us flipping to be a fat exporter, throw it all out. There are just so many of these, probably long held assumptions, those kind of things that people that have been in the industry a while probably have like, “Well, my gut tells me this.” Question your gut. That’s my go-to train of thought moving forward. Ted Jacoby III: I think that’s a good one. And I will say, I think people are underestimating what this whole breeding to beef thing going on with the dairy farmer is doing to their decision-making process when it comes to killing cows. Everybody’s talking about how low the price is. Everybody’s wondering when this price will recover. And I keep asking myself, if every time a beef cow is born, you’re selling that cow for over a thousand dollars, why would you wanna get rid of that womb? ’cause that womb seems to be making you a lot of money. To all of our listeners out there, thank you so much for joining us this week, and we look forward to talking to you soon. Take care out there.

On this week’s episode, we’re continuing our Guidelines Series exploring the 2022 ESC/ERS Guidelines for the diagnosis and treatment of Pulmonary Hypertension. If you missed our first episode in the series, give it a listen to hear about the most recent recommendations regarding Pulmonary Hypertension definitions, screening, and diagnostics. Today, we’re talking about the next steps after diagnosis. Specifically, we’ll be discussing risk stratification, establishing treatment goals, and metrics for re-evaluation. We’ll additionally introduce the mainstays of pharmacologic therapy for Pulmonary Hypertension. Meet Our Co-Hosts Rupali Sood  grew up in Las Vegas, Nevada and made her way over to Baltimore for medical school at Johns Hopkins. She then completed her internal medicine residency training at Massachusetts General Hospital before returning back to Johns Hopkins, where she is currently a pulmonary and critical care medicine fellow. Rupali’s interests include interstitial lung disease, particularly as related to oncologic drugs, and bedside medical education. Tom Di Vitantonio  is originally from New Jersey and attended medical school at Rutgers, New Jersey Medical School in Newark. He then completed his internal medicine residency at Weill Cornell, where he also served as a chief resident. He currently is a pulmonary and critical care medicine fellow at Johns Hopkins, and he’s passionate about caring for critically ill patients, how we approach the management of pulmonary embolism, and also about medical education of trainees to help them be more confident and patient centered. Key Learning Points 1) Episode Roadmap How to set treatment goals, assess symptom burden, and risk-stratify patients with suspected/confirmed pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). What tools to use to re-evaluate patients on treatment Intro to major PAH medication classes and how they map to pathways. 2) Case-based diagnostic reasoning Patient: 37-year-old woman with exertional dyspnea, mild edema, abnormal echo, telangiectasias + epistaxis → raises suspicion for HHT (hereditary hemorrhagic telangiectasia) and/or early connective tissue disease. Key reasoning move: start broad (Groups 2–5) and narrow using history/exam/testing. In a young patient without obvious left heart or lung disease, think more about Group 1 PAH (idiopathic/heritable/associated). HHT teaching point: HHT can cause PH in more than one way: More common: high-output PH from AVMs (often hepatic/pulmonary) Rare (1–2% mentioned): true PAH phenotype (vascular remodeling; associated with ALK1 in some patients), behaving like Group 1 PAH. 3) Functional class assessment WHO Functional Class: Class I: no symptoms with ordinary activity, only with exertion Class II: symptoms with ordinary activity Class III: symptoms with less-than-ordinary activity (can't do usual chores/shopping without dyspnea) Class IV: symptoms at rest Practical bedside tip they give: Ask if the patient can walk at their own pace or keep up with a similar-age peer/partner. If not, think Class II (or worse). 4) Risk stratification at diagnosis: why, how, and which tools Big principle: treatment choices are driven by risk, and the goal is to move patients to low-risk quickly. ESC/ERS approach at diagnosis (as described): Use a 3-strata model predicting 1-year mortality: Low: 20% ESC/ERS risk assessment variables (10 domains discussed): Clinical progression, signs of right heart failure, syncope WHO FC Biomarkers (NT-proBNP) Exercise capacity (6MWD) Hemodynamics Imaging (echo; sometimes cardiac MRI) CPET (peak VO₂; VE/VCO₂ slope) They note: even if you don't have everything, the calculator can still be useful with ≥3 variables. REVEAL 2.0: Builds on similar core variables but adds further patient context (demographics, renal function, BP, DLCO, etc.) Case result: both tools put her in intermediate risk (ESC/ERS ~1.6; REVEAL 2.0 score 8), underscoring that mild symptoms can still equal meaningful mortality risk. 5) Treatment goals and follow-up philosophy What they explicitly prioritize: Help patients feel better, live longer, and stay out of the hospital Use risk tools to communicate prognosis and to track improvement Reassess frequently (they mention ~every 3 months early on) until low risk is achieved “Time-to-low-risk” is an important treatment goal Also emphasized: The diagnosis is psychologically heavy; patients need clear counseling, reassurance about the plan, and connection to support groups. 6) Medication classes for the treatment of PAH Nitric oxide–cGMP pathway PDE5 inhibitors: sildenafil, tadalafil Soluble guanylate cyclase stimulator: riociguat Important safety point: don't combine PDE5 inhibitors with riociguat (risk of significant hypotension/hemodynamic effects) Endothelin receptor antagonists (ERAs) “-sentan” drugs: bosentan (less used due to side effects/interactions), ambrisentan, macitentan Teratogenicity emphasized Hepatotoxicity that requires LFT monitoring Can cause fluid retention and peripheral edema Prostacyclin pathway Prostacyclin analogs/agonists: Epoprostenol (potent; short half-life; IV administration) Treprostinil (IV/SubQ/oral/inhaled options) Selexipag (oral prostacyclin receptor agonist) 7) Sotatercept (post-guidelines) They note sotatercept wasn't in 2022 ESC/ERS but is now “a game changer” in practice: Mechanism: ligand trap affecting TGF-β signaling / remodeling biology Positioned as potentially more disease-modifying than pure vasodilators Still evolving: where to place it earlier vs later in regimens is an active question in the field 8) How risk category maps to initial treatment intensity General approach they outline: High risk at diagnosis: parenteral prostacyclin (IV/SubQ) strongly favored, often aggressive early Intermediate risk: at least dual oral therapy (typically PDE5i + ERA); escalate if not achieving low risk Low risk: at least one oral agent; many still use dual oral depending on etiology/trajectory For the case: intermediate-risk → start dual oral therapy (they mention tadalafil + ambrisentan as a typical choice), reassess in ~3 months; add a third agent (e.g., selexipag/prostacyclin pathway) if not low risk.  References and Further Reading Humbert M, Kovacs G, Hoeper MM, Badagliacca R, Berger RMF, Brida M, Carlsen J, Coats AJS, Escribano-Subias P, Ferrari P, Ferreira DS, Ghofrani HA, Giannakoulas G, Kiely DG, Mayer E, Meszaros G, Nagavci B, Olsson KM, Pepke-Zaba J, Quint JK, Rådegran G, Simonneau G, Sitbon O, Tonia T, Toshner M, Vachiery JL, Vonk Noordegraaf A, Delcroix M, Rosenkranz S; ESC/ERS Scientific Document Group. 2022 ESC/ERS Guidelines for the diagnosis and treatment of pulmonary hypertension. Eur Heart J. 2022 Oct 11;43(38):3618-3731. doi: 10.1093/eurheartj/ehac237. Erratum in: Eur Heart J. 2023 Apr 17;44(15):1312. doi: 10.1093/eurheartj/ehad005. PMID: 36017548. Condon DF, Nickel NP, Anderson R, Mirza S, de Jesus Perez VA. The 6th World Symposium on Pulmonary Hypertension: what’s old is new. F1000Res. 2019 Jun 19;8:F1000 Faculty Rev-888. doi: 10.12688/f1000research.18811.1. PMID: 31249672; PMCID: PMC6584967. Maron BA. Revised Definition of Pulmonary Hypertension and Approach to Management: A Clinical Primer. J Am Heart Assoc. 2023 Apr 18;12(8):e029024. doi: 10.1161/JAHA.122.029024. Epub 2023 Apr 7. PMID: 37026538; PMCID: PMC10227272. Hoeper MM, Badesch DB, Ghofrani HA, Gibbs JSR, Gomberg-Maitland M, McLaughlin VV, Preston IR, Souza R, Waxman AB, Grünig E, Kopeć G, Meyer G, Olsson KM, Rosenkranz S, Xu Y, Miller B, Fowler M, Butler J, Koglin J, de Oliveira Pena J, Humbert M; STELLAR Trial Investigators. Phase 3 Trial of Sotatercept for Treatment of Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension. N Engl J Med. 2023 Apr 20;388(16):1478-1490. doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa2213558. Epub 2023 Mar 6. PMID: 36877098. Ruopp NF, Cockrill BA. Diagnosis and Treatment of Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension: A Review. JAMA. 2022 Apr 12;327(14):1379-1391. doi: 10.1001/jama.2022.4402. Erratum in: JAMA. 2022 Sep 6;328(9):892. doi: 10.1001/jama.2022.13696. PMID: 35412560.

CardioNerds (Dr. Colin Blumenthal, Dr. Kelly Arps, and Dr. Natalie Marrero) discuss anti-arrhythmic drugs in the management of atrial fibrillation and atrial flutter with electrophysiologist Dr. Andrew Epstein. We discuss two major classes of anti-arrhythmic drugs, class IC and class III, as well as digoxin. Dr. Epstein explains their mechanisms of action, indications and specific patient populations in which they would be particularly helpful, efficacy, adverse side effects, contraindications, and key drug-drug interactions. We also elaborate on defining clinical trials and their clinical implications. Given the large burden of atrial fibrillation and atrial flutter in our patient population and the high prevalence of anti-arrhythmic drug use, this episode is sure to be applicable to many practicing physicians and trainees. Audio editing by CardioNerds academy intern, Grace Qiu.  Enjoy this Circulation 2022 Paths to Discovery article to learn about the CardioNerds story, mission, and values. CardioNerds Atrial Fibrillation PageCardioNerds Episode PageCardioNerds AcademyCardionerds Healy Honor Roll CardioNerds Journal ClubSubscribe to The Heartbeat Newsletter!Check out CardioNerds SWAG!Become a CardioNerds Patron! Pearls Anti-arrhythmic drugs should not be thought of as an alternative to ablation but, instead, should be considered an adjunct to catheter ablation.   Class IC anti-arrhythmic drugs, flecainide and propafenone, are highly efficacious for acute cardioversion and a great option for patients with infrequent episodes of AF who do not have a history of ischemic heart disease.    Class III anti-arrhythmic drugs like ibutilide, sotalol, and dofetilide, are highly effective for acute conversion; however, they require hospitalization for close monitoring during initiation and dose titration given the risk of prolonged QT.   Amiodarone should not be used as a first line agent given its toxicities, prolonged half-life, large volume of distribution, and drug-drug interactions.   Dr. Epstein notes that, “All drugs are poisons with a few beneficial side effects,” when highlighting the many adverse side effects of anti-arrhythmic drugs, particularly amiodarone, and the importance of balancing their benefit in rhythm control with their side effect profile.   Notes Notes: Notes drafted by Dr. Natalie Marrero. What are the Class IC anti-arrhythmic drugs and what indications exist for their use?   Class IC anti-arrhythmic drugs are anti-arrhythmic drugs that work by blocking sodium channels and, thereby, prolonging depolarizing.   Class IC anti-arrhythmic drugs include flecainide and propafenone.   Class IC anti-arrhythmic drugs are good agents to use in patients that have infrequent episodes of AF and do not want daily dosing as these agents can be used by patients when they feel palpitations and desire acute conversion back to sinus rhythm (“pill in the pocket” approach).    What are the adverse consequences and/or contraindications to using a class IC agent?  Class IC anti-arrhythmic agents are contraindicated in patients with a history of ischemic heart disease based on increased mortality associated with their use in these patients in the CAST trial.   Given the results of the CAST trial, providers should screen annually for ischemia via a functional stress test in patients on these drugs at risk for coronary disease.   These drugs can increase 1:1 conduction of atrial flutter and, therefore, require concomitant use of a beta blocker.   These agents are generally well-tolerated without any organ toxicities; however, they can precipitate heart failure in patients with cardiomyopathies, cause sinus node depression, and unmask genetic arrythmias such as a Brugada pattern.   What are the class III agents and what are indications for their use?   Class III agents are drugs that block the potassium channel, prolonging the QT, and include Ibutilide, Sotalol, and Dofetilide.    Class III agents can be considered in patients with or without a history of ischemic heart disease that desire effective acute chemical cardioversion and are willing to go to the hospital for close monitoring during dose initiation and titration.   Other specific circumstances in which one can use these agents, specifically Ibutilide, are in patients with recurrent atrial fibrillation and Wolf Parkinson White (due to slowed conduction via the accessory pathway).  What are the adverse consequences and/or contraindications to using a class III agent?  Ibutilide, Sotalol, and Dofetilide prolong the QT and increase the risk of torsade de pointes, which is why they require ECG monitoring in-patient during drug initiation and dose titration.    These agents are generally well-tolerated.   Sotalol should be avoided or used cautiously in patients with left ventricular dysfunction, while dofetilide can be used and has dose-response beneficial effects in patients with left ventricular dysfunction.   Both sotalol and dofetilide are renally cleared with specific creatinine clearance cutoffs (CrCl < 20 for dofetilide and CrCl

There's milk everywhere: more milk in the U.S., Europe and New Zealand than a year ago, soft Class IV, and Class III futures that could slip into the $13s once you plug in today's spot cheese and whey. With a long milk wave crashing over the dairy industry, will farmers start culling cows and leaving stalls empty? Inside the episode, the team churns through: Why strong balance sheets, paid-down debt and high cow values could delay a production pullback How lower feed costs shift the breakeven – but can't fully offset falling milk checks Why Western and cheese-focused regions like the Pacific Northwest, California and Idaho may struggle first How WPC 80, WPI and clear whey proteins have become the lone bulls – and why capacity constraints limit the industry's response Why there are limits to what customers can pay for whey, and where substitution is already happening It's a barn full of bears on butter, cheese and fluid milk, but the protein complex is still flexing. The question is how long that can last? Tune in to The Milk Check episode 88: One bull in a barn full of bears to hear how our traders are navigating a market that's bearish on volume but still bullish on protein. Got questions? We'd love to hear them. Submit below, and we might answer it on the show. Ask The Milk Check Ted Jacoby III: Welcome, everybody, to The Milk Check. It is December 5th. We’re gonna talk about markets today. And rather than boring you and having the same conversation we had three weeks ago, everything is still bearish. There’s milk everywhere. There’s milk all over the U.S. There’s milk all over Europe. There’s milk all over New Zealand. There’s a whole bunch more milk this year than last year. Things are long. It’s very likely things are gonna get longer before they get shorter. Today we have some of our usual suspects. My brother Gus has joined us today. We’ve got Josh White, we’ve got Joe Maixner, we’ve got Diego Carvallo. And, of course, myself. Looking forward to a great conversation. So, rather than discussing how bearish we can be on these markets, my question, and I’m gonna start by throwing this question at my brother, Gus, is Gus, how long do you think it’s gonna take for dairy farmers to start culling cows and for this milk [00:01:00] production to slow down? Gus Jacoby: I feel like milk price and farm economics are completely contingent on that and how bad those farm economics get with respect to the milk price. Class III is still relatively high. Obviously, Class IV is pretty poor right now. The way I see it, dairymen, at this moment in time, still have fairly strong balance sheets. So, the recent low prices haven’t affected ’em all that much. So, I don’t expect their behavior with respect to culling and whatnot to change. But I think in five, six months from now, assuming that the milk price is at or lower, and quite frankly, I think Class III probably does need to get a bit lower, you’ll start to see some of that behavior change. If I had to guess, either as early as early summer, but as late as maybe mid-fall, if farm economics don’t change, we’ll start to see dairymen begin to leave stalls open. I mean, they’re gonna cull a cow, collect that beef revenue that they can grab, and not necessarily buy the expensive heifer. Ted Jacoby III: You’re thinking it’s gonna take about six months for dairy farmers [00:02:00] to get to the point where they feel like they need to increase the amount of cows they’re selling in order to meet their cashflow needs? Gus Jacoby: That’s my best guess. And again, that can be either expedited or slowed down depending on where the milk price goes. Ted Jacoby III: Corn prices have really come down this year. Do you think the lower feed prices have lowered where that break even point is, or how low we need to go in milk price in order to really send those signals in a strong way? Gus Jacoby: Certainly, feed prices being lower are gonna be helpful to the farm economic model. This becomes a milk price discussion. If the cheese price continues to have that downward pressure and gets low enough, those feed prices won’t be low enough. It’s always related to their inputs. And certainly, cheap feed helps their cause to extend growth in the milk production model. Ted Jacoby III: Right now, on December 5th, the Class III prices for the first quarter are right around, let’s call it $15.50, but if you use today’s cheese price on the spot market at the CME in today’s whey price, you’re probably looking at something closer to $14, 14 and a quarter. [00:03:00] Is that low enough or do we need to go lower? Gus Jacoby: It’s low enough. But not low to expedite anything. Maybe that takes us into the late summer, and remember, it depends on where we’re talking here in the country. Milk production costs are different depending on where you exist in the country. And also payouts are a lot different in a lot of places, depending on where you exist in the country. So, some regions might struggle sooner than later. Ted Jacoby III: Which regions do you think are gonna struggle first? Gus Jacoby: The West, Pacific Northwest, I think California, areas like Idaho that are strongly cheese based. If you’re paying on a Class III price and it stabilizes, which I don’t anticipate here, then perhaps some of those regions might hold on longer. My guess is predicated on the forecast of Class III going a bit lower. Ted Jacoby III: I guess I’d have to agree with that ’cause I don’t think $14 a hundredweight is enough. Because we’re still in front of Christmas, and I think the market’s probably gonna get worse before it gets better. My hunch is we’re gonna see $13 milk this year. We’re gonna see it in Class IV, and we may be already [00:04:00] seeing it in Class IV as soon as December. I think we’re gonna see a 13 handle in Class III, probably most of the first quarter. Gus Jacoby: If you’ve got a Class III at 13, and Class IV holds as low as it is, which I would expect certainly in the first half of the year, and then you have your standard freight and other deducts in those milk checks, dairymen are now getting to an area that is very adverse. Ted Jacoby III: Even though we’re talking about really low prices, I think there’s a lot of dairy farmers out there that are in a pretty healthy place. Gus Jacoby: I would agree. Ted Jacoby III: They’re healthy in two ways. One, I think that many of them have been able to take the last two years and really pay down their debt. And so, they’re in a really good spot financially, just on the balance sheet alone. But the second thing is those cows, they’re worth twice what they were worth three years ago. And so, not only have they paid down their debt, but if they need to borrow more, they’ve got more collateral to borrow against because those cows are usually the collateral for the banks when the banks lend dairy farmers money. It’s [00:05:00] usually the cows and the land. My hunch is that this may go on longer than we expect because of how healthy dairy farmers are financially today. Not saying they’ll be healthy in four or five months, but they’re healthy today. And because of how much bankers are probably willing to lend them based on those balance sheets. Gus Jacoby: I agree that the balance sheets are strong at the moment, even after a couple tough months. But I would also add, that that can change fairly quickly if the milk price gets low enough. And it’s certainly a ratio of farm economics over a certain period of time and milk price. If it gets low enough and makes those farm economics adverse enough, it can expedite the issue, which is a plausible scenario right now. Ted Jacoby III: Mm-hmm. I would agree with that. I think the hardest thing, especially when you have a falling market like we do right now, is to try and figure out exactly where the bottom is. About a month ago, the bottom was about a $1.40. Well, guess what? Cheese price is already below a $1.40 Now, we’re hearing it’s gonna be [00:06:00] somewhere in the $1.20s. What I’m scared is we’re gonna get to the $1.20s, and somebody’s gonna start talking about maybe we need to go into the teens. I don’t know if we’re gonna go that low, but we’re definitely in that scenario right now, where you have a market that’s falling and nobody has a really good feel for where that bottom is. Gus Jacoby: I agree. Cheese and butter right now, their outlook over the next six to eight months does not look good. Ted Jacoby III: Yeah. You mentioned butter. Joe, I’ll ask you: we’re below a $1.50 in butter. Butter feels like maybe it’s caught a temporary floor. Is this a temporary floor or could we stabilize here for the next six months? Joe Maixner: I think we’ve hit a temporary floor, but I don’t think it’s the lowest we’ll see over the next 90 days. I think that cream seems to be in balance, even after Thanksgiving, and I think it’s kept a nice spot in the market where people are willing to buy, those that hadn’t already put contracts on for next year are seeing the 2026 numbers and they’re looking at that against their budgets and blocking volume up for next year. A [00:07:00] lot of first half volume’s already been booked. We’re just seeing more activity. We’ve hit that level of support. Ted Jacoby III: Joe, you mentioned cream. Gus, I’m gonna go back to you. We had some really ugly cream multiples the first half of last year. Have we increased churn capacity, and do we expect those multiples to be just as bad this year or have we increased churn capacity enough so that maybe they won’t quite get so bad? Gus Jacoby: We have increased churn capacity, certainly. I don’t know if it’s enough. Some dairymen around the country are feeding their rations a bit different and getting a little bit less butterfat out of the milk. I don’t think that’s enough, yet, to make too much change. I will anticipate having some very low multiples through the holidays and the spring flush. Ted Jacoby III: Okay. Diego, I’m gonna switch gears and come to you. We just talked about U.S. milk production. Gus thinks it’ll take about six months to turn. I hate to be really pessimistic, but my gut, and I just can’t shake this gut, is it’s gonna take longer than usual this time around. And we may see it go well past nine months before we see a real turn. [00:08:00] We may see the number get better simply because we’re measuring against strength, but that doesn’t mean we actually see a change in trend. What about Europe and some of the other milking regions in the world, is it gonna take that long us to see some changes in milk production in those regions? Diego Carvallo: If you just go to the fundamentals and you analyze that the European farmer usually has a smaller scale, and that means that their costs tend to be a little bit on the higher end. They do not have access to capital as there is in the U.S. There’s more restrictions when it comes to environmental, and overall I would say they have more headwinds than the U.S. So, if you add to all of those headwinds, the price headwind, the reaction on milk production to lower prices should be faster than in the U.S. The same applies to South America. But we’ve talked a lot about Chinese production, we know that in that country, there are way more things to take into account. Ted Jacoby III: [00:09:00] So, we’ve been talking a lot about the supply side today. We’re just overwhelming supply on the butter side; we’re overwhelming demand to a lesser extent, but still on the cheese side. Josh, protein still tends to be the shining star. But are we getting to a point where we’re starting to get some pushback on protein prices? And is that going to continue to be the lone bull in an overall bearish dairy market, or do we need to be concerned there too? Josh White: I don’t think we’re getting pushback at the prices quite yet. Does that mean I think that these prices are palatable over the long term? I’m unsure. But what we are seeing right now is lack of availability and no quick ability by the European market or the U.S. market to scale production to meet the demand, which means that ultimately, the demand for WPC 80 and WPI and then some of the more value-added proteins, particularly in the whey complex, like the clear WPIs, the acidified products and others, the demand is outpacing our ability to supply it. What that’s [00:10:00] doing is forcing utilization segments or customers that can’t compete in terms of price for that available supply to look to alternatives. We’re starting to see more and more of that. As a commodity trader, we expect that to happen quicker than it does. So, already in early 2025, we were looking towards MPCs, casein-related products and others to pick up some of that demand because they’re much lower value. And I don’t think that the average customer in the market that’s using whey proteins fully recognize the functional differences between whey proteins and milk proteins. And they certainly don’t realize that milk protein concentrate has whey protein in it. Generally speaking, the average consumer doesn’t know the difference in these products. That’s not a fault of theirs. Particularly going into CPG applications and further processing, this is an ingredient. An ingredient that has a lot of label recognition and popularity right now for all the reasons we’ve talked about in prior podcasts: GLP-1 driven demand, [00:11:00] health and wellness movements globally, a lot of other reasons. Is that an early indication that enough time has now passed that the relative value of whey protein above the competing, but still quite valuable proteins in the dairy complex, are gonna result in substitution both substitution within the dairy category to whey protein to milk protein concentrates to micellar casein to WPC 70, also known as WPPC, whey protein phospholipid concentrate (WPPC) ProCream. There’s a lot of different names for these products. That’s likely to happen. But it also, unfortunately, might result in a lot of categories pushing to non-dairy proteins. There’s a lot of information out there, things put on by ADPI and others talking about the protein power of dairy and how digestible it is. How high quality it is for your conversion rate, why it’s such a popular thing. But if you can’t get supply, you’re forced to look to alternatives. And so, we’re starting to see some of that [00:12:00] happen. So, a couple things that I’ve heard anecdotally in the market over the past few weeks in particular, but it’s been happening over the last few months are: get us samples of milk protein concentrate. One of our customers is suspending a certain SKU on the shelf because they can’t get the supply. This price simply won’t work for our application. So, we won’t buy this product at above this price. So, we are triggering some thresholds. And triggering thresholds is gonna have some type of balancing result in the industry. Whether that’s enough to support the milk protein side of the equation, I don’t know. We have a limit to the ability to respond to this demand. You have to order equipment, you have to get the bank lending, you’ve gotta get the design. It takes a long time to increase capacity. That’s all gonna come into play and impact this market and the balance of this market in 2026. Now, if you’re asking me, is my gut that we hold these high prices or even higher prices without some reversal in the price [00:13:00] action for whey proteins in 2026? I’m not ready to say that it’s just here or higher in 26, but is it here or higher in the first quarter? Absolutely. Is it here higher in the second quarter, probably. Is it here or higher after that? I become a little bit skeptical. And to be clear, that’s not because the demand isn’t there right now. The demand feels like it’s there. I just don’t know how the market balances it out without pushing the price just too high in the short term for the market to digest it and pass it through. I also think that when you’re talking about the dairymen and you’re talking about the cheese makers, there is two different classes here. There is the class of those that make whey proteins and the class of those that do not. That has a material impact on profitability throughout the supply chain. Additionally, we’ve got a lot of milk in the U.S. We’ve got a lot of milk in the world right now, and the milk in the Northern hemisphere altogether is only gonna increase from here through the first half of [00:14:00] the year. That milk is gonna need to be processed. The incremental milk production will result in incremental whey protein availability, which means that those whey solids from cheese processors they have to find a market. If you can’t make the valuable product of WPC 80 and WPI, you have to explore the other alternatives, which are simply not experiencing the robust demand of those two categories. Sweet whey powder, whey protein concentrate 34% (WPC 34) and some of these other products, they have a limit to what people are willing to pay. History tells us, at least for sweet whey powder, we’re testing those limits. Ted Jacoby III: For sweet whey powder, we are, the question is, is this happening for whey protein? And that’s a harder one to answer. Josh White: Absolutely. Ted Jacoby III: I did some back of the envelope math. As a country, we produce 8% to 9% more milk in May on a daily basis than we do in November. If half of that milk goes into cheese, we’ll produce 8% more cheese and 8% perhaps more whey protein. The solids change, too. So, maybe it’s not a full [00:15:00] 8%, but is 8% enough to tip the scale on whey protein demand? And I don’t know, given the demand complex for whey, I think for cheese it’s gonna feel very burdensome. I think for butter, it would probably feel pretty burdensome. The butter market we’re kind of used to it because of the way the demand curve looks, but I just don’t know when it comes to whey, if that’s enough to put some pressure on this market and bring those prices down. Josh White: Well, it depends on what you’re talking about because you could argue that the WPC and WPI facilities are bringing in outside whey solids. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. As their own milk and their own whey generation increases seasonally, that’s gonna push whey solids back to somebody else. So, all 8% in your hypothesis there, I doubt contributes to an 8% increase in whey protein production. Because the available capacity isn’t there? Josh White: Correct. Now, is there production efficiencies that are still gonna be gained? Are there those out there that are expanding a bit [00:16:00] that we’re unaware of? Are there orders for new equipment in the system that might be closer to realization than we think? All possible. And we can’t ignore Europe. I don’t feel like I can adequately represent what the expansion model looks like in Europe right now for whey proteins. What I can say is that at least for the U.S. and Europe, our internal demand is currently absorbing a greater percentage of our production than ever before, and that’s leaving the rest of the world that was buying product from those two markets, having to search for that protein elsewhere. Ted Jacoby III: Mm-hmm. Josh White: And, this is being a bit over generic, but the rest of the world likely will be more willing to substitute than the U.S. or the European consumer to other products. Ted Jacoby III: I would agree with that. Everybody in our office is just leaning really bearish, just about everybody we talk to seems to be leaning really bearish. Josh White: Outside of Black Swan events: major trade disruptions, major production impacts that we can’t predict. If you’ve [00:17:00] been in the dairy industry long enough, you know to never bet against the dairymen and their ability to make milk. But it’s gotta be on the radar that the competitive dollars for those animals I don’t think has ever been as lucrative as it is right now. And those animals that they’re currently milking are older then typically they want them to be. So, if we shift this cycle quickly enough and violently enough, and that’s price, at what moment do we get surprised at what that residual response is? How many pent up animals find their way to slaughter? How quickly that could happen. And I think generally speaking, most of us would bet that the calf inside the dairy cow right now is worth enough to wait. And so, we’ve gotta get through the first half of the Northern Hemisphere season before we see much of an animal response. Ted Jacoby III: I think that’s a fair comment. Dairy farmers, especially the big financially astute ones, there’s a math equation. It’s like, this is my revenue [00:18:00] from milk. This is my maybe revenue from biofuels or wherever else. They have revenue streams from a cow that’s giving milk every day. This is the cost to maintain that cow. The variable cost feed, for example, being the big one. Well, when you’re getting $20, a hundredweight from your milk versus $13, a hundredweight for your milk. That equation has changed quite a bit, whereas the exit price, what you’re gonna get if you sell the cow hasn’t changed at all, which means your math equation, the exit possibility has definitely gone up. It’s more profitable to sell this cow than it used to be. Josh White: History tells us that the exits of the older dairymen and the smaller dairies doesn’t really change based on economic conditions, it’s relatively stable. Maybe there’s some risk that we have some pent up exits and some risk that it’s never been a better time to retire. Mm-hmm. And you get some smaller dairies that decide to exit. That doesn’t move the needle. Ted Jacoby III: I would suspect. You’re right. We’ll see. Josh White: One [00:19:00] quick remark that’s important is the outlook on demand. It seems like the market is very, very bearish because supply is outpacing demand globally and it’s in every major milk shed. But demand by import regions has been pretty good. Mm-hmm. They’ve been buying year over year, more dairy products. At the same time, I don’t believe there’s any region in the world that’s currently sitting on cumbersome overall dairy stocks, whether that’s from the import regions or the production regions. Everyone seems to be quite aware that you gotta stay in front of this. I don’t know how to interpret that. On one hand, you could say that based on some of the economic outlooks, globally, we shouldn’t be expecting things to get better. We should be expecting them to get at best the same or possibly even worse. On the other side of that equation is import dairy consumption and demand is growing and continues to grow, so it might be a painful period, but the long-term [00:20:00] outlook remains pretty good, and we just overreacted to some of the demand signals that we have. Credit to the dairymen in the world, being able to respond to signals that we needed more fat, not even a year ago. That whey protein demand’s good. I mean, the market has responded, but overall we’re not talking about an oversupply situation because demand’s bad. If you go granularly, like U.S. cheese consumption, doesn’t look real great right now. The outlook for overall economic health, I’m not an expert in that area, but I’m not seeing a lot of people talking about a rosy 12 to 24 months there. So, yeah, I think generally speaking, it’s easy to be bearish, but maybe that’s one thing to pay attention. Ted Jacoby III: You mentioned demand. I happened to be involved in a conversation yesterday with an equities trader and his comment about stock valuations, equities, valuations, which was really a demand comment, was, I’m just waiting to see what Christmas sales do. I think there’s a lot of people out there right now that are trying to get a feel for what’s [00:21:00] the long-term demand or the 2026 demand perspective, and I think a lot of them are gonna judge what it really is based on how this holiday season plays out. All right guys. Hey, thanks for a great conversation. I apologize to all the dairy farmers out there that I couldn’t give you any better news, but hang in there that good news will come eventually. That’s right.

Milk production is up 4.2% year over year, components are climbing and prices are falling. As holiday orders wrap up and we head into the long winter, The Milk Check team digs into whether dairy markets have already found a floor, or if there's still another leg down to go. With milk products everywhere (except for whey), the Jacoby team shares where the market is and where we're going. They churn through: Butter at $1.50 and what heavy cream and higher components mean after the holidays Why cheese feels like a calm before the storm, and how far Class III could grind lower Nonfat and skim: long milk, growing inventories and buyers shopping the cheapest origin Why whey proteins are the outlier, with tight supply, strong demand and GLP-1 tailwinds Global milk growth, clustered demand (Ramadan, Chinese New Year, Super Bowl) and who blinks first between the U.S. and Europe In this episode of The Milk Check, host Ted Jacoby III is joined by Joe Maixner, Jacob Menge, Diego Carvallo, Josh White and Mike Brown for a rapid-fire market session on butter, cheese, nonfat and proteins. Listen now for The Milk Check's latest market read on butter, cheese, nonfat and whey. Got questions? We'd love to hear them. Submit below, and we might answer it on the show. Ask The Milk Check Ted Jacoby III: Welcome back, everybody, to The Milk Check podcast. Today we’re gonna have a market discussion. It is November 10th. We are in the last couple of weeks of the quote-unquote busy season, starting to get a feel for what we think is gonna happen to dairy markets as holiday orders are filled, and we transition into the long-term period of the year. In the last few weeks, we’ve actually seen prices drop, but it feels like butter’s kind of dropped down to about a $1.50/lb and seems to find at least a brief floor. We’ll talk to Joe and find out if Joe thinks we’re gonna stick around here for a while. The cheese market was up in the $1.80s/lb. It’s dropped to a little below $1.70, starting to hit a little bit of resistance. Jake will share with us a little bit about what we think is happening with cheese going forward. Nonfat dropped a little bit down to [00:01:00], about what Diego, about a $1.10/lb and had a little bounce off its floor. Meanwhile, the whey complex just continues to go up. We’ll check in with Josh and find out what’s going on there. Well, let’s go ahead and start with milk production. We just got released today, the September milk production, and it says it’s up 4.2%, which is a very, very big number. It’s November; milk is longer than it usually is this time of year. Usually, it’s quite tight, and it’s not quite tight, but I wouldn’t call it long. However, all the signs are there that once we get past the fall holiday order season, milk could get quite long. If September milk is up 4.2%, I think it’s safe to say that if that continues, we will be quite long milk as we transition from the typical seasonal tightness of the fall into the winter and the flush of the spring. 4.2% is a big number, and that’s not even taking into account the fact that the solids in the milk are up as well. That’s not the kind of tone that a dairy farmer wants us to set as we’re talking about what supply and demand looks like, but there’s a lot of milk out there, [00:02:00] Joe, does that mean there’s a lot of butter out there, too? Joe Maixner: Well, there’s still a lot of butter out there; sounds like there’s going to be a lot more butter coming soon. If milk’s up 4%, cream was heavy all of last winter and into last Spring, extremely heavy. If we have higher components, more milk, and we’ve got a full amount of milk coming outta California as well after coming off of bird flu last year, there’s just gonna be that much more cream in the system and more getting pushed back into the churns. So, it’s a very good possibility that we’re gonna go even lower than where we currently are. Volume seems to be trading well. The cream demand has been fairly steady, going into cultured products and the shorter shelf-life products. Cream’s still long, but it’s not swimming yet. Ted Jacoby III: Will we hold this $1.50 area through Thanksgiving, you think? Joe Maixner: Yeah, it seems like we’ve hit a spot where buyers are willing to step in. So, there’s a good chance that we could hang around this $1.50 area for the next couple of weeks. Once the last little spurt of holiday demand is over, we’re gonna take another leg lower. Ted Jacoby III: Okay. Jake, what about [00:03:00] cheese? Jacob Menge: I think we had a little reprieve from some cheese bearishness with the holiday demand. It’s tough, though, especially with this wall of milk that’s headed our way. Does it seem like the bottom’s ready to drop out? Probably not yet. But it still seems like it’s a possibility. It almost seems like the call before the storm. Ted Jacoby III: What you’re saying is: we’ve already dropped quite a bit, but we’re in typical low points, but it’s possible, considering the amount of supply coming our way, that there’s still another cliff to negotiate, and we could go a lot lower when it comes to Class III milk and cheese prices. Jacob Menge: If you zoom out a ways, going back to mid-2022, we’ve really not liked to go below that $1.55 level on futures. We’re kind of at another support level at this $1.65. Those seem like our two support areas, historically, for the last 3, 4 years. So, it’s probably gonna be one of those grinds lower if we move lower from here, versus that $1.85 to $1.65 was almost an air pocket drop. [00:04:00] It seems like the market’s gonna have to earn it if it moves lower from here, but it does seem like a possibility. Ted Jacoby III: When we get down to these levels, this usually tends to form the floor, and if we have so much cheese out there and so much milk out there that we’re gonna go lower from here, it’s probably not an air pocket drop; it’s probably a grind lower from here. Jacob Menge: Yeah, I think our lows, on the futures, for the past 4 years have been that $1.55. Don’t quote me on that, gimme a couple of cents on either side of that. But that means we got a dime from here to hit those five-year lows, you know, besides COVID. There’s a lot to be said for technical trading at those levels. So, it would take a big fundamental kind of wave supply to get us to crack that. Ted Jacoby III: Got it. Thank you. Diego. What about nonfat? What’s the international market doing? We know we have a lot of milk in North America. We have a lot of milk everywhere. And what does it mean? Diego Carvallo: Customers are also seeing the data, and it seems like they’re in no rush to buy nonfat. Right. Nonfat seems to be the product that is 00:05:00 consistently available. We haven’t seen a very tight market in several years. So, it seems customers are more concerned about other products like WPCs or maybe cheese, other products besides nonfat. So, they’re staying very hand-to-mouth. They’re being very flexible when it comes to origin and just buying spot and from the origin that offers them the cheapest skim milk powder delivered price, which, in most cases, for the past few months, has been either European or New Zealand product because of the shipment time, transit time, and tariffs. Ted Jacoby III: Has the inventory in the U.S. been building as a result? Diego Carvallo: Yes, it has, Ted. Yep. Inventory has been building. I was looking into the milk production numbers for September. California was relatively stable compared to the previous year. I think we grew by 2.5% versus the previous year. But the strong impact from avian [00:06:00] influenza was actually in October. So, that’s when we might see a big jump between California production for 2024 and California production for 2025. So, I thought the Milk Report was pretty bearish for nonfat. Next month could be as bearish or even more. I still believe that we’re gonna see a lot of product going into the dryers, and that’s gonna add pressure, and that’s gonna increase inventories for U.S. products. Ted Jacoby III: What does milk production look like in Europe? Diego Carvallo: They’re actually up quite a bit. I think their September number was also stronger than expected. I can’t recall the exact number, but it was stronger than expected, even though they have cut down on the farmer price, the FrieslandCampina, which is the number one benchmark. It still seems like, with corn moving lower, there’s still a number that incentivizes more milk production. For the next few months until we see a stronger cotton price, we’re gonna see plenty of milk from the U.S. and from Europe. Ted Jacoby III: [00:07:00] Okay, thanks. Appreciate it, Diego. Josh, so what about the protein market? Josh White: Yeah, same story. I don’t know why everybody else is having so many problems with their products because whey proteins are in demand and it continues to be very strong. WPC 80, WPI demand is outpacing supply. People are trying to book forward and can’t. By all reports, the demand on the consumer level remains pretty good. It’s a bit of an outlier. It’s definitely a mystery. A lot of the discussion centers around GLP-1 adoption in the U.S. Compared to a year ago, I think I read this morning, something like 12% of Americans are allegedly using GLP-1-related drugs for weight loss. Assuming that’s an accurate statistic, that’s a noteworthy number of people. There was a lot of discussion last year that as people come on things like Wegovy and Ozempic, at what moment do we mature to the point that people beginning their cycles of taking the drugs equal those coming off of those drugs? There’s just been a lot of headlines about more affordable access to these types of products. If that continues, that shifts this curve even a little bit further up. [00:08:00] What can reverse that trend or slow down the demand for the whey protein side? I think it takes a production response. I can imagine that any manufacturer that’s making whey-related products as a byproduct of their cheese production is exploring how to access this demand, in particular, the whey protein isolate demand. I don’t have the impression that equipment is any easier to get, and there are still plenty of obstacles in terms of making production changes at the processor side. It feels to me like at least through the first half of this year, we’re gonna continue to be under-supplied relative to the demand that’s out there. And I think it’s important to note that although we’re talking about good demand for these products, the GLP-1-related impact on the dairy market isn’t all positive. It’s certainly a positive on the whey protein side. Still, I think, as it relates to consumer demand for butterfat, cheese products, and some of the other snack foods that dairy products are used in, in the CPG space, people are consuming fewer calories. Throughout the rest of the world, this health and wellness [00:09:00] trend and this appetite for quality protein are everywhere. Their demand continues to be very strong internationally. Maybe a couple of other things that are noteworthy, maybe early indicators of the price stabilizing, it looks like Europe and the U.S. might be closer to parity for the first time in a while. So, we should watch that. We will see seasonal production levels start to increase a bit. I don’t know if that will one-for-one find its way into additional whey protein availability, but it certainly should help the situation as we get into heavier production months in the Northern hemisphere markets that produce these products. But other than that, demand remains very, very strong. Prices are firm. They appear they’ll continue to be through at minimum the first quarter. And I don’t think it’s going out on a ledge to say through the first half of the year. And then we’ll see what happens on the other side of it. But yeah, definitely a firm marketplace right now, Ted. Ted Jacoby III: What about milk protein concentrate, milk protein isolate? Are we starting to see the value of those products increase and close the gap between the [00:10:00] whey protein, since the whey proteins have gotten so expensive? Josh White: I’ll jump in and say we’re starting to see some early indications of that: people looking for substitutes where they can. If you’re not in these markets every day, you don’t know what products are available. If you’re in the CPG space or using it as one of many, many SKUs that you’re buying, you’re not aware of the functional properties and some of these other things. And there’s also a decision-making timeline that people have to consider. Not only are there labeling concerns and other things, but there’s a lot of protein that’s consumed as an ingredient and maybe not the primary ingredient. And oftentimes, those decisions are not easy to formulate or change, and they’re also made over larger durations of time, like annual pricing. We’ve had such a wide gap for a long enough time now that we have customers asking questions, and customers that are on the lower end of the valorization for these products are looking for substitutes. Those substitutes come in a couple of ways. They can come from substituting away from dairy, substituting for other [00:11:00] dairy or trading down to lower dairy-related protein products. We’re seeing people investigate all of them. Diego might be able to speak more precisely about what’s happening with the MPC prices. But generally speaking, the majority of people out there are starting to ask questions. I’m not so sure it’s having a material impact or moving the needle quite yet on substitution. Ted Jacoby III: Okay, well, it feels a little bit like a broken record. Milk everywhere, product everywhere except for whey, maybe that’s exactly the loop we’re in right now. Joe Maixner: We’ve talked a lot about supply and excess and whatnot, but demand, it feels like we’re increasingly teetering towards a crumbling economic situation with higher debt, people not having much discretionary income, and just overall demand being weak. Ted Jacoby III: So, if you’re looking at the demand numbers that we track, restaurant traffic is definitely down. It is clear that the economic environment we’re in, people’s pocketbooks are being stretched thin, and they’re cutting back on how often they go to restaurants and eat at [00:12:00] restaurants. Now, usually when that happens, there’s an offset into the retail side, and the retail side numbers usually go up a little bit. You are seeing that. Speaking to some of our branded customers, what they’re telling us is their sales are down, and the private label guys are saying, well, their sales are up, but frankly, not as much as they expected. The bottom has not dropped out yet. I think everybody’s watching it pretty closely. I think the industry’s concerned. I’ll leave it at that. Mike Brown: I think food service continues to be the big stickler on overall dairy sales. Grocery sales are okay. Food service continues to be weak, and that’s gonna affect us. Mm-hmm. Particularly, I think some of the high-fat products. Josh White: When we’re looking at it from the home front, it doesn’t feel real great, but if we’re looking at just how much additional milk we have globally, including out of Oceana and out of South America, and looking at how much of that surplus milk globally is being consumed in Asia right now, I mean they’ve been buying I wonder if that points to some brightness, at least some positives? Now, I also am a little [00:13:00] concerned that we have a consolidation of demand events, with Chinese New Year buying at the same time that Ramadan continues to move earlier and earlier every year. And prices are low right now. Feels like we might have a big concentration of demand that’s meant to satisfy local needs in the early part of 2026, but there has been a lot of international trade. Ted Jacoby III: I think you’re absolutely right. Ramadan and the Chinese New Year are both in February. Diego Carvallo: The word in the street, Ted, is that most of the Ramadan and New Year’s demand is gonna be fulfilled by the middle of November. Ted Jacoby III: In other words, by the time we get to January 1st, those orders are gone. Mike Brown: Yeah. And Super Bowl is 10 days before the start of Ramadan in the Chinese New Year. So, they’re all pretty close together. Josh White: I went back to saying that, hey, we’ve got a lot of milk globally, every surplus region’s producing more milk than expected. You mentioned earlier, Ted, that doesn’t even account for the component growth that we have here. That’s been fairly impressive. [00:14:00] What’s been interesting about that is it hasn’t felt this heavy. You might believe, well, it doesn’t feel as heavy because the Northern Hemisphere is at its low milk production points. Maybe it doesn’t feel as heavy because we’ve got a concentration of additional demand, but we’re trading a lot of anticipatory supply concerns. We’re really trading the fact that tomorrow we’re worried we have a lot of incremental milk, globally, that we don’t necessarily know where we’re gonna go with it. That’s not a reason to get bullish, to be super clear, but I do think that if we’re thinking through vulnerabilities in the market, that might be one. Ted Jacoby III: I would agree with that. I think there are three things that are probably keeping this market from going straight to the bottom. One, as you said, we’re at the low point seasonally for milk production in the Northern Hemisphere. Two, we are at the high point for demand everywhere. And three, you get to a certain point, and I think we are there in all products, we may actually be passed there in butter, but we are there in cheese, I think we’re there in nonfat, where [00:15:00] in order to go lower, you need to build up supply to the point where the inventories become actually burdensome, and I don’t think they have become burdensome yet, but I would expect that sometime in the first quarter of 2026, they will. You’ll start hearing reports that warehouses are full. You’ll start hearing reports that, from a cashflow perspective, whether it’s traders, whether it’s manufacturers, you have people who just need to dump inventory because they don’t have the cash flow to continue to hold inventory. Those are the things that drive markets to their lows. And so, if you think about the old saying: the cure for high prices is high prices, and the cure for low prices is low prices, that’s when you find out what the low price is, and then you go to that place that sends the strongest supply signal possible to suppliers that they need to cut back. Mike Brown: I was at a cattle show of all things this weekend and was talking with someone about feeding palm oil to get butterfat. His rule of thumb was that a pound of palm oil costs about a dollar, and you get about a 00:16:00 three-to-five-point increase in fat test from that. So, if you say 0.4 and you’re a 90-pound Holstein herd, that’s 0.36 pounds of fat. So, you’re paying a dollar to produce, there’s roughly 50, 60 cents worth of butter fat. So, we may start to see that come into conversations on rations. Josh White: And if we’re looking for optimism, I think that formula is pretty openly discussed in Europe as well. So, you’ve got a situation now where you have the on-farm milk price that is beginning to drop, the signals there that it needs to come down. It’s moving at a decent clip, to Diego’s point, maybe not enough to make any major change yet, but for planning purposes, things like feeding for fat might be a bit more vulnerable going forward there. So yeah, if we’re looking for what could start to correct our oversupply situation or what could potentially stabilize or support the market, we need time. I think that’s the most important thing that needs to happen, is we need time, and we need a milk price that curtails any additional production growth [00:17:00] for the moment so that demand can catch up. We talked about the U.S. situation and how the consumer spending situation doesn’t feel great. But globally, per capita butterfat consumption globally is growing. Per capita protein consumption is growing. We just need to give the demand time to catch up. Inventories might be starting to build, but they’re nowhere nearcumbersome. I would actually argue, our supply chain is still very thin. I wouldn’t even argue that we’re getting to a point where we’re normal by historical standards. I think that we have a pretty thin supply chain, and that’s everything from measurable inventory and reports, like cold storage reports and manufacturing stocks here in the U.S., but all the way through the pipeline. I don’t believe that many end users are sitting on excess product or have too many days in inventory. I think they’ve been quite comfortable buying hand-to-mouth. And the only product they’re being punished on right now for that is whey proteins. Ted Jacoby III: I think you’re right, Josh. I would agree with that statement. I think butter [00:18:00] is somewhat of an exception. Joe Maixner: I don’t know. Butter, it just depends on product mix, right? It’s CME eligible salted bulk. I think overall inventories are not burdensome. But we do have too much older CME-eligible salted bulk butter out there. Ted Jacoby III: That’s actually where I’m going, Joe. What do butter manufacturers do if they’re worried about having produced too many quarters and too many solids? They’ll just produce bulk. And so bulk is the overflow because they know the worst-case scenario, they can dump it onto the CME. And so that is where we end up with excess surplus, just like we get the same with a cheddar block in the cheese market. Josh White: How is international demand for U.S. butter at the moment, Joe, compared to where you would expect it to be and compared to where we were a few months ago? Joe Maixner: It’s steady right now. New inquiries are still coming in, but inquiries have lessened compared to a month or two ago; there’s a lot being made and shipping right now. International markets are starting to open their eyes to something other than [00:19:00] 82%. They’re starting to expand into the 80% because they are finally starting to realize that the numbers that they see on the futures don’t equate to the numbers they pay for an 82% product. And so anybody that’s really just using it for solids, for processing, is starting to convert, which is helping clean up some of that 80% salted butter, but it’s still not fast enough to really move the needle yet. Josh White: So, if the outlook for butterfat really doesn’t have any material upside in the near future, and we’re currently looking at Class III and IV prices, where they’re at, when do we start to impact the U.S. producer’s decision on making incremental milk beyond just the fat component? Are we close or are we still a long way away? Jacob Menge: Look at this Milk Production Report. We are up 268,000 head since June of 2024. That just keeps going up. There was an August revision of 71,000 head higher. The answer is a pretty [00:20:00] conclusive, not yet. I’m looking at the last time, September milk production beat the prior month, so beat August, which was 2001. And it just did that; September just beat August, and the last time it did that was 2001. Josh White: We’re not even talking about adjusted for components. Jacob Menge: That is correct. Joe Maixner: I can’t imagine that $16 to $17 Class III causes any worries right now for the farmers, with $4 corn and $1,200 feeder calves. Mike Brown: As long as you’re in a Class III market, if you’re heavy Class IV, your price isn’t $17. It depends on where you’re located, Joe. But for the most part, if you’re in a cheese market, it’s still decent. You’re right because the whey is also contributing a lot to that Class III price right now with a 70¢ whey market. Ted Jacoby III: Yeah. And the cows are all increasing in the states where there is increased processing capacity as well. Jacob Menge: These guys have had time to hedge this, and they still almost can hedge this, right? Going into later next year, where I think it’s gotta be at a point where they can’t hedge at a profit, and then you’ve [00:21:00] really got issues. Josh White: If we’re in a situation where the global economic outlook isn’t great, so that means we shouldn’t expect any major demand booms to pull dairy up We’re realizing supply growth in all major dairy surplus regions; the only correction for this is supply. And who’s the first to react? The obvious answer is it’s gonna be head-to-head with Europe and the U.S. Who breaks first? These are very, very different markets with different drivers, and they’re actually experiencing growth for different reasons related to the big picture, but different reasons. Europe just went through a situation where its butterfat carried the day. And butterfat was incredibly high, much higher than the U.S. price. They were an importer of fat from New Zealand, bringing in a noteworthy amount of product. And then now going into this year, they’ve seen a really significant drop, well below the support level that most traders would’ve held for butterfat. You assume [00:22:00] that they’re not gonna import a bunch of that product, forcing that product on the rest of the market. They’re going through a pretty negative situation right now as well. One thing you can’t forget about the European producer is that if you kill cows, it’s really tough to replace them, not for the same reasons we have in the U.S., that right now it’s just difficult to compete with beef. But they don’t wanna make those changes for a lot of regulatory reasons. So, they’re gonna hang on as long as possible. The U.S. model, we’re not in pain yet, generally speaking. Some smaller producers might look at higher beef prices and lower dairy outlook as an opportunity to exit. But there is way more structural expansion in motion or down the line that I think that train’s moving down the tracks. So, it’ll be really interesting to see if and who breaks first between the North American market and the European market. Ted Jacoby III: My hunch is it’s the U.S. market. I still think we’re a minimum of six months away, maybe even 12 to 18. Now there are signs, like you look at the Milk Production Report, the state of Washington is down [00:23:00] 8.5%. So, there are places where we are losing cows. Even though the majority of the country has gained cows recently, I would argue that with the drop in the butter price and the weakness in the nonfat market, California is the next one that I think will follow. They’ll struggle to get a decent milk price given that those are the two dominant price drivers for the California market. Diego Carvallo: But if you look at Idaho’s strongly up. So, it seems like a movement between Washington and Idaho. Ted Jacoby III: I think you could be right. Joe Maixner: California, their numbers this month were slightly higher than their peak production year 22. They’re on the uptrend. That’s a large ship that takes a while to turn around. Ted Jacoby III: I don’t disagree. I also think you’re still measuring against bird flu in California. You could argue that it may be a little artificially high. Joe Maixner: I actually questioned that because of the lower increase than I had anticipated for the September number, and bird flu didn’t actually start in California until October. So, we will see even larger increases next month forward in California. They [00:24:00] have that Class I plant that they opened as well out there. Mike Brown: They’re also getting hit with a big assessment, a lot of the producers out there, because the butter market changed, there’s been a lot of inventory loss, and that’s gonna hurt some producers as well. No one I talk to in California is worried about finding milk. They’re worried about finding a place to put it right now. Ted Jacoby III: I don’t think that’s isolated to being a California problem right now. Mike Brown: I would agree. You’re right. Ted Jacoby III: On that note, I think it’s a good time to wrap. Thanks, everybody, for joining us this week. Look forward to talking to you guys again soon. Thank you.

What if the same mindset that gets you through a Class IV rapid could help you start a business, write a book, or take a bold leap in life? In this episode of The Discomfort Zone, Anna sits down with Melissa DeMarie — international kayak coach, river guide, and founder of California Watersport Collective — to talk about how navigating the unknown on the river mirrors the discomfort we face in life, leadership, and growth. Melissa shares her "mental flow chart" — a practical, soulful framework for aking decisions when fear hits. We explore:

Welcome to Unpacked, Five Questions, a podcast that takes you behind the scenes of one great travel story. In this episode, host Katherine LaGrave sits down with journalist Chloe Berge, who spent 13 days paddling 80 miles down Canada's Firth River—one of the country's oldest and most northern rivers—before reaching the Arctic Ocean. This epic journey through Ivvavik National Park combines adventure, science, and deep cultural history in one of the most remote regions on Earth. Chloe shares her experience navigating Class IV rapids, disconnecting completely from the digital world, and standing in ancient Inuit hunting grounds that have been used for thousands of years. She reveals why this unique expedition—which hosts only about 100 visitors annually—serves as the sole opportunity for Parks Canada scientists to collect critical environmental data in this pristine wilderness. On this episode you'll learn: Why Canadian River Expeditions' partnership with Parks Canada makes this the only annual scientific data collection opportunity in the region How two weeks completely off-grid changes your relationship with time and the natural world What makes the Engigstciak mountain one of the most important archaeological sites in Arctic Canada Why the region's unglaciated history during the last ice age created such unique geological formations How paddling expectations versus reality shaped the physical demands of the journey Don't miss these moments: [04:00] Chloe's previous Arctic experiences and what drew her to this inland expedition [06:00] Standing at Engigstciak—an ancient hunting lookout used for thousands of years [08:00] Finding the rhythm of the river and how time becomes less linear in the wilderness [10:00] The immediate sense of remoteness when dropped by bush plane 200 miles from civilization [13:00] The geological wonders that didn't make the story—from glittering quartz pillars to sandstone archways [15:00] Surprising truths about the paddling requirements and physical demands [19:00] The profound mental clarity that comes from two weeks without digital connection Resources Read Chloe's complete Afar feature about paddling the Firth River to the Arctic Ocean Learn more about Canadian River Expeditions and their science-focused Arctic trips Explore Ivvavik National Park and its rich Inuit cultural heritage Follow Chloe Berge for more stories at the intersection of travel, environment, and culture Stay Connected Sign up for our podcast newsletter, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Behind the Mic⁠⁠⁠, where we share upcoming news and behind-the-scenes details of each episode.  Explore our other podcasts, View From Afar, about the people and companies shaping the future of travel, and ⁠Travel Tales⁠⁠⁠, which celebrates first-person narratives about the way travel changes us. Unpacked by Afar is part of ⁠⁠⁠Airwave Media⁠⁠⁠'s podcast network. Please contact ⁠⁠⁠advertising@airwavemedia.com⁠⁠⁠ if you would like to advertise on our podcast. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

How Red Light Therapy Transforms Health After 40Click On My Website Below To Schedule A Free 15 Min Zoom Call:www.Over40FitnessHacks.comOver 40 Fitness Hacks SKOOL Group!Get Your Whoop4.0 Here!Dr. Carl Rothschild - Trifecta LightRed Light Therapy Bedswww.TrifectaLight.comYoutube & Instagram: @trifectalightofficial

In today's throwback episode Dr. Clinton Timmerman joins the Very Clinical Podcast live from Voices of Dentistry, and he's not afraid to bust some dental myths! Prepare to have your anesthetic assumptions challenged and maybe even find out why you shouldn't offer your dentist a side of steak for their services. Plus, Clint shares a surprisingly effective pro tip for tackling those tricky Class IV restorations. Join the Very Dental Facebook group using the password "Timmerman," Hornbrook" or "McWethy," "Papa Randy," "Lipscomb" or "Gary!" Very Clinical is brought to you by Zirc Dental Products, Inc., your trusted partner in dental efficiency and organization. The Very Clinical Corner segment features Kate Reinert, LDA, an experienced dental professional passionate about helping practices achieve clinical excellence.  Connect with Kate Reinert on LinkedIn: Kate Reinert, LDA  Book a call with Kate: Reserve a Call  Ready to upscale your team? Explore Zirc's solutions today: zirc.com    

The Lancet Volume 353, Issue 9146 p9-13 January 02, 1999Background: Accumulating data at the time suggested functional benefits of antagonism of beta-adrenoreceptors in patients with heart failure. Multiple specific beta-blockers were being tested in trials. The CIBIS 1 trial found a trend towards 20% lower mortality in the bisoprolol (a highly cardio-selective beta-blocker) group and 30% fewer admissions to hospital for worsening heart failure. The Cardiac Insufficiency Bisoprolol Study II (CIBIS-II) trial was designed to test this evidence further.Patients Eligible patients had New York Heart Association Class III-IV symptoms with LVEF ≤ 35% and were stable on diuretics and ACE-inhibitors. Exclusion criteria included recent MI or coronary intervention, AV block or resting heart rate less 60 bpm and systolic BP < 100 mmHg. Patients already on beta-blockers or with planned therapy with beta-blockers were also not enrolled.Cardiology Trial's remains independent, free of industry ads, due to reader generosity. Please consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Baseline Characteristics The mean age of patients was 61 years, 81% male, and 83% Class III. The mean LVEF was 28%. About half the patients had ischemic heart disease, 12% primary dilated cardiomyopathy and nearly 40% had a mixture of valvular heart disease, hypertensive heart disease or unproven ischemic disease.The mean SBP on enrollment was 130 mmHg and resting HR was 80 bpm. The mean duration of heart failure before enrollment was 3.5 years. About 20% had AF at baseline. Nearly all patients were on ACE-I and half were on digoxin.Trial Procedures There was no run-in period. CIBIS II was double blinded. Slightly more than 2,600 patients were randomized 1:1 to bisoprolol or placebo in 274 hospitals across 18 countries.Patients in the bisoprolol group were started at 1.25 mg daily and titrated up weekly to as high as 10 mg daily. The goal was to attempt the highest tolerated dose. Patients were seen every 3 months.Endpoints The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality. Secondary endpoints included all-cause hospital admissions, cardiovascular mortality, combined CV death and CV hospital admissions, and premature treatment withdrawals.The authors estimated a 11.2% mortality in the placebo group and powered the trial to find a 25% reduction in death in the bisoprolol arm over 2 years.Results The trial was sopped early (mean follow-up 1.3 years) after the planned second interim analysis for benefit. The primary outcome of all-cause death occurred in 11.8% in the bisoprolol group vs 17.3% in the placebo arm (HR 0.66 (95% CI 0.54-0.81, p < 0.0001)).Bisoprolol reduced sudden death (3.6% vs 6.3%), all-cause hospitalization (33% vs 39%), CV death (9% vs 12%). Permanent treatment withdrawal occurred in 15% of both arms.The subgroup analysis showed no substantial treatment heterogeneity. The most common dose was 10 mg daily reached in 43% of patients.Conclusion The 34% reduction in death was clinically meaningful and statistically robust. Our confidence in such a large effect size stems from a) previous data on beta-blockers, which found similar effects, b) the 42% reduction in sudden death in the bisoprolol arm and c) the large reductions in all-cause hospitalization. In addition, the trial conduct appeared strong with almost no lost-to-follow up. The lack of run-in period strengthens the external validity of CIBIS II.The same caveats seen in the US carvedilol trial also apply to CIBIS II, namely that patients were ambulatory, outpatients, mostly with Class III symptoms. Patients enrolled in the trial had a mean SBP of 130 mmHg and a resting heart rate of 80. Nearly all patients were tolerating ACE-I and half were taking digoxin. In addition, patients were started on low-dose and gradually titrated higher. The majority of patients were on higher than 5 mg daily.The authors warned against applying these results to non-ambulatory patients with Class IV symptoms, especially if there was recent instability. Get full access to Cardiology Trial's Substack at cardiologytrials.substack.com/subscribe

Lancet 1999;353:2001-07Background: Beta-blockers directly reduce cardiac contractility and myocardial oxygen demand. For decades, they were avoided in patients with acute and chronic heart failure over concerns they would facilitate decompensation of the condition. The therapeutic cornerstones of treatment, prior to the modern era of clinical trials, focused on managing symptoms and quality of life with diuretics and inotropic agents like digoxin; however, new paradigms were arising that focused on addressing neurohormonal mechanisms of chronic disease that were over-activated in the failing heart. The first major success came with inhibition of the renin angiotensin aldosterone system with angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors whose effect on mortality for patients with mild and severe forms of chronic heart failure were demonstrated in the V-HEFT II, CONSENSUS, and SOLVD trials. Additional benefits were demonstrated with the mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist spironolactone in the RALES trial. These drug classes primarily work by reducing afterload and volume retention. Appreciating why they work for improving cardiac performance and managing symptoms in heart failure patients is straightforward when we consider the major factors that effect cardiac stroke volume - preload, afterload and contractility; however, it is also noteworthy the effects these agents have on sudden death. How beta-blockade benefits the failing heart is less obvious (outside prevention of sudden death). Mechanistic studies in patients with chronic heart failure have consistently shown that when beta blockers are used for more than 1 month, left ventricular function improves. Beta blocker therapy appears to restore the density of beta-adrenergic receptors after they have been downregulated by the chronic overactivity of the sympathetic nervous system. The first major placebo-controlled RCT to demonstrate a mortality benefit used the non-selective beta blocker carvedilol. The trial was small and not originally designed to test mortality and was stopped early without clearly predefined stopping rules. Furthermore, 8% of total patients selected for participation in the trial were excluded prior to randomization after a 2 week, open-label run-in phase with the study drug, which saw 2% of all patients experience worsening heart failure or death representing 24 patients (the difference in total deaths between groups was 9 when the trial was stopped). The Metoprolol CR/XL Randomised Intervention Trial in Congestive Heart Failure (MERIT-HF) was the first large scale trial designed to test the hypothesis that beta-blockade with metoprolol controlled/extended release (CR/XL) added to optimum medical therapy reduces mortality in patients with chronic systolic heart failure.Patients: Patients were recruited from 313 sites in 13 European countries and the United States. Eligible patients were men and women between the age of 40 to 80 years with symptomatic heart failure (NYHA class II-IV) for >/= 3 months before randomization. They had to be on a diuretic and ACE inhibitor for at least 2 weeks. Other drugs, including digoxin, could also be used. Patients also had to have an EF of /=68 beats per minute.Patients were excluded if: they had an MI or unstable angina within 28 days; had an indication or contraindication for treatment with beta-blocker; beta blockade within 6 weeks; heart failure due to systemic disease (i.e., amyloidosis) or alcohol abuse; scheduled or performed cardiac transplant; an ICD; procedures such as CABG or PCI planned or performed in the past 4 months; 2nd or 3rd degree AV block unless a pacemaker was present; unstable or decompensated heart failure defined by pulmonary edema or hypoperfusion or supine systolic BP 25% deviation of the number of observed versus expected consumed placebo tablets during the run-in period.Baseline characteristics: The mean age of patients was 64 years and approximately 78% were male. Slightly more than 30% of patients were above the age of 70. The average EF was 28%. The average SBP was 130 mmHg and heart rate was 82 bpm. Most patients had mild to moderate heart failure, with 41% in NYHA Class II, 56% in Class III, and only 3% in Class IV. Ischemic cardiomyopathy accounted for 65% of cases and nonischemic causes accounted for 35%. Most patients were on an ACE inhibitor or ARB (95%) and diuretic (90%). Digoxin was used in 63%. Trial procedures: Prior to randomization, the study was preceded by a single-blind, 2-week placebo run-in period. Patients meeting eligibility were then randomized to placebo or metoprolol CR/XL. The starting dose of placebo or metoprolol CR/XL was 12.5 mg daily for patients in NYHA class III or IV and 25 mg daily for patients in NYHA class II. The dose was doubled every 2 weeks until the target dose of 200 mg daily was reached. Patients were followed every 3 months.Endpoints: The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. It was estimated that 3,200 patients would need to be followed for 2.4 years to detect a 30% relative reduction in mortality based on annual mortality rate of 9.4% in the placebo group. This would achieve at least 80% power with a 2-sided alpha of 0.04. Patients were recruited faster then planned and so the final sample size of 3,991 patients increased the power of the study.The study was monitored by an independent safety committee and predefined stopping rules for efficacy were based on all-cause mortality, done when 25%, 50%, and 75% of expected deaths had occurred. Results: The trial was stopped early after the 2nd preplanned interim analysis when 50% of expected deaths had occurred. The mean duration of follow-up at the time of stopping was 1 year. The mean daily dose of metoprolol CR/XL was 159 mg once daily, with 87% receiving 100 mg or more and 64% receiving the target dose of 200 mg daily. In the placebo group, the corresponding values were 179 mg daily, 91% and 82%. The study drug was discontinued permanently in 14% of patients in the metoprolol group and 15% in the placebo group. Six months after randomization, heart rate decreased by 14 bpm in the metoprolol group compared to only 3 bpm in the placebo group. Systolic blood pressure decreased less in the metoprolol group (-2.1 vs 3.5 mmHg).Compared to placebo, metoprolol significantly reduced all-cause mortality (7.3% vs 10.8%; RR 0.66; 95% CI 0.53—0.81). Cardiovascular mortality accounted for 91% of all deaths; with sudden death accounting for 58% and death from worsening heart failure accounting for 24% of all deaths. All 3 of these causes of death were significantly reduced by metoprolol. The relative and absolute effects on death were greatest for patients with NYHA class III heart failure.Conclusions: In this trial of stable patients with mild to moderate chronic systolic heart failure, who were optimized on an ACEi or ARB and diuretic, metoprolol CR/XL significantly reduced all-cause mortality. Approximately 30 patients would need to be treated with metoprolol compared to placebo for 1 year to prevent 1 death. This trial represents a significant win for beta blockade in patients with chronic systolic heart failure. While the NNT in this trial is slightly higher than in SOLVD, it is important to appreciate that follow-up time in SOLVD was more than 3x longer. Limitations to external validity in this trial include the run-in period and stringent inclusion and exclusion criteria. Our enthusiasm is also tempered by early stopping, which has been found to be associated with false positive or exaggerated results but this concern is mitigated to some extent in this trial because the rules for early stopping were clearly defined in the protocol.Cardiology Trial's Substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Get full access to Cardiology Trial's Substack at cardiologytrials.substack.com/subscribe

N Engl J Med 1996;334:1349-1355Background Before 1990, the prevailing idea held that the negative inotropy of beta-blockers would harm patients with impaired systolic function. Yet part of the progression of systolic heart failure involved over stimulation of the sympathetic nervous system. Norepinephrine can exert adverse effects on the circulation, both directly and indirectly. Smaller trials of beta-blockers in systolic heart failure found trends for benefit with beta-blockers, however, a mortality benefit had not yet been proven. The U.S. Carvedilol Heart Failure Study aimed to study mortality in patients with heart failure with a reduced ejection fraction.Cardiology Trial's Substack remains free of industry ads because of your support. Thank you. Please consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Patients The study enrolled 1094 patients with chronic heart failure symptoms for at least 3 months, LVEF ≤ 0.35%, at least 2 months of treatment with diuretics and an angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor (if tolerated). Treatment with digoxin, hydralazine, or nitrates was permitted but not required.Exclusion criteria were extensive and important to understand. These included any recent major cardiac events or surgery within the previous 3 months, uncorrected valvular disease, active myocarditis, sustained VT or higher degrees of AV block not controlled by pacing, systolic blood pressure of more than 160 or less than 85 mm Hg or diastolic blood pressure of more than 100 mm Hg, clinically significant kidney or liver disease or use of calcium-channel blockers, adrenergic agonists/antagonists, or class IC/III antiarrhythmic agents. Patients receiving β-adrenergic agonists or antagonists (presumably for another indication) were not enrolled.Baseline Characteristics The results of this and other beta-blocker trials in heart failure will be clear. One of the most important points for translating this evidence to patients will be the baseline characteristics. It is vital to understand who these patients were.The mean age was 58 years and approximately 76% were male. Most patients had mild to moderate heart failure, with 53% in NYHA Class II, 44% in Class III, and only 3% in Class IV. The etiology of heart failure was nearly evenly split between coronary artery disease (47%) and nonischemic cardiomyopathy (53%). Patients had significantly impaired cardiac function with a mean LVEF of 0.23. The mean six-minute walk distance ranged from 386 to 390 meters. Hemodynamic parameters were relatively stable, with mean systolic blood pressure of 116 mmHg, and mean heart rate of 83-84 beats per minute. Most patients were receiving standard heart failure therapy at baseline, including digitalis (90-91%), loop diuretics (95%), and ACE inhibitors (95%), while approximately one-third (32%) were on direct-acting vasodilators.Trial Procedures Patients were assessed for eligibility during a 3-week screening period during which exercise capacity was assessed with a 6-minute walk test. Notable was that these were outpatients able to complete a 6-minute walk test. Enrollment was stratified to one of four treatment protocols on the basis of the patients' performance on the exercise test: patients able to walk between 426 and 550 m when tested were assigned to the mild-heart-failure protocol; those able to walk between 150 and 425 m were assigned either to the moderate-heart-failure protocol or to a dose-ranging protocol, depending on the location of the study center; and those able to walk only less than 150 m were assigned to the severe-heart-failure protocol.After this base-line testing, all patients received 6.25mg of carvedilol twice daily for two weeks in an open-label run-in period. Those who tolerated this initial dose were then randomized to receive either placebo (n=398) or carvedilol (n=696) on a double-blind basis, in addition to their usual medications.The allocation ratio (carvedilol:placebo) was 2:1 in the mild and severe heart failure protocols and 1:1 in the moderate heart failure protocol. The dose was gradually increased to target levels of 25-50mg twice daily over 2-10 weeks, followed by maintenance therapy for an additional 6 months (12 months for mild heart failure).Endpoints At the time of trial planning, the original intent was safety. That is, to show that carvedilol did not increase mortality. The original intent was to enroll 1100 patients. As smaller trials on beta-blockers were published, the statistical plan included the possibility of beta-blocker benefit. The trialists therefore planned two sided statistical analysis.Cumulative survival curves were constructed as time-to-first-event plots by Kaplan–Meier survivorship methods and differences between the curves were tested for significance by the log-rank statistic with use of a Cox proportional-hazards regression model (which included the protocol as a covariate).Results Median follow-up was only 6.5 months due to early termination for benefit. The patients mean total daily dose of carvedilol was 45±27 mg. Overall mortality was 7.8% in the placebo group vs. 3.2% in carvedilol group. The relative risk reduction from carvedilol vs placebo was 65% (95% CI, 39-80%; p

What does it really take to peel out of the eddy with confidence—on the river and in life? In this solo episode, Anna shares insights from a Class IV day on the Cheoah River and a powerful conversation about mindset, trust, and making bold moves. Learn how familiar thought patterns keep us stuck, and how generating the feelings you want—before the big rapid—can shift everything. Whether you're on the water or navigating a challenge in life, this episode offers a fresh perspective on how to find your flow. You'll learn: Why familiar patterns feel safe—even when they hold you back A simple yet powerful morning practice to shift your energy How “spotting your landing” applies both on and off the river If you're ready to move through fear, let go of perfectionism, and feel more joy in your paddling and your life—this one's for you.

In this episode of "The Veterinary Viewfinder," hosts Dr. Ernie Ward and Beckie Mossor, MPA, RVT, tackle a timely topic that every veterinary professional should consider: how inflation, rising tariffs, and supply chain disruptions are affecting big purchasing decisions and clinic growth strategies. As economic pressures mount, practice owners, managers, and technicians alike are asking: Should we buy that new piece of equipment now or wait? Dr. Ward and Beckie walk listeners through real-world examples — from deciding whether to replace aging digital radiology systems to concerns about the availability of surgical lasers and other high-ticket items due to supply chain slowdowns. But this conversation isn't just about purchases. It's about strategy. The hosts encourage clinics to use slower economic periods to introduce new services, such as Class IV laser therapy, advanced dental care, acupuncture, or clinical weight management programs. They emphasize that investing in team training during slow periods, such as additional preventive care like heartworm and intestinal parasite education, can boost morale and better position a practice for future growth. This episode is a must-listen for veterinary professionals who want to stay ahead of economic uncertainty, make informed financial decisions, and build stronger, more resilient veterinary teams for the future.

Today, we're excited to introduce you to a true innovator in the field of natural pain relief and holistic healing—Dr. Matthew Zerebny, better known as Dr. Matt Z. is the founder of Inland Empire Laser Pain Center in Hemet, California. Dr. Z has developed a proprietary “gentle & painless” laser solution that helps people ditch the drugs and skip the scalpel.If you've been struggling with chronic pain, inflammation, or mobility issues—and have been told there's nothing else that can be done—this conversation could change your life. Dr. Z specializes in getting to the root cause of pain instead of masking symptoms. His unique approach combines cutting-edge Class IV laser therapy with Bio-Stacking techniques—powerful, natural energy therapies designed to boost your body's ability to heal itself.With six certifications beyond his Doctor of Chiropractic degree, and a background in strength and conditioning from UCLA, Dr. Matt Z brings a wealth of experience, passion, and personalized care to every patient he serves.If you're ready to recover, reclaim your vitality, and live pain-free without surgery or side effects, this episode is for you.About Dr. Matthew Zerebny, D.CAt Zerebny Chiropractic Clinics we use Bio Stacking techniques to give our patients as many advantages as possible to optimize their health and chronic pain conditions. Bio-stacking technique is a wellness technique that combines multiple natural energies to improve physical, mental, and emotional health. It can also refer to combining biohacking techniques for maximum benefit.“I look forward to assisting you on your journey towards a life filled with higher levels of health and vitality!”Dr. Zerebny loves combining state of the art cutting edge therapies with holistic care to promote long-term healing,health and vitality for his Patients.With 6 certifications above his Doctor of Chiropractic degree, he has many tools in his toolbox to be able to create effective therapeutic programs specifically for his Patients for Chronic Pain Relief and Optimizing their bodies ability to heal.Dr. Zerebny was originally a Strength and Conditioning Specialist before he became a Doctor of Chiropractic and had his undergraduate training in Premed at UCLA.He loves working with Patients who have been told “there is a nothing else we can do for you” because he understands that quality of life is such a priceless and precious thing for everyone, especially for those who are looking for help.D.C. – Doctor of ChiropracticCSCS – Certified Strength and Conditioning SpecialistCCST – Certified Chiropractic Spinal TraumaCWS – Certified Wellness SpecialistDACW – Diplomat American College of WellnessCOMS – Certified Obesity Management SpecialistCCWFN – Certified Clinician Whole Foods NutritionCWI – Certified Wellness InstructorInland Empire Laser Pain Center provides a proprietary “gentle & painless“ Laser solution to your debilitating injuries. We can help your body to reduce the agonizing inflammation, swelling, and pain while speeding the repair and healing process. Let's help you recover and enjoy your active and pain-free life again! Contact us to find out how to avoid the knife and reduce or eliminate the drugs! Let's get to the root cause versus masking your symptoms.Address901 S State Street Suite 500 Hemet California 92543954-423-0020info@gotpaingetlasered.comHoursMonday 9 am-6 pmWednesday 9am-6 pmFriday 9am-6 pmThe Optimal Health Showhttps://businessinnovatorsradio.com/optimal-health-show/Source: https://businessinnovatorsradio.com/dr-matthew-zerebny-at-inland-empire-laser-pain-center-ready-to-help-you-ditch-the-drugs-and-skip-the-scalpel

Do you know a pet who is recovering from surgery or limps, or winces when touched or has become less interactive or seems to be in pain? Hot laser (which is warm not hot) is a drug free, pain free, trauma free course of treatments that helps pets heal and reduce inflammation and scarring with no side effects. Laurie Mason describes some pet patients and how sometimes dogs and cats with behavior issues improved their attitude and habits when treatments made the pet happier and less pain. Class IV laser can help with chronic pain too including cat declaw surgery ramifications! Deborah explains why cats should never be declawed because it is the amputation of joints and not just a manicure.EPISODE NOTES: Deb Wolfe Delves into The Topic of Class IV Laser Therapy For Pets With Practitioner Laurie Mason Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/animal-party-dog-cat-news-animal-facts--6666735/support.

Do you know a pet who is recovering from surgery or limps, or winces when touched or has become less interactive or seems to be in pain? Hot laser (which is warm not hot) is a drug free, pain free, trauma free course of treatments that helps pets heal and reduce inflammation and scarring with no side effects. Laurie Mason describes some pet patients and how sometimes dogs and cats with behavior issues improved their attitude and habits when treatments made the pet happier and less pain. Class IV laser can help with chronic pain too including cat declaw surgery ramifications! Deborah explains why cats should never be declawed because it is the amputation of joints and not just a manicure. EPISODE NOTES: Deb Wolfe Delves into The Topic of Class IV Laser Therapy For Pets With Practitioner Laurie Mason

Is your dog or cat in pain, or recovering from surgery or wound? Laser could help! What is a class IV laser? How does it work? What problems does it address? From Chihuahuas to Irish Wolfhounds and cats too Laurie has helped many pets with many different problems; aches, pains, circulation, teeth, hip, knee, and skin issues. This week Deborah Wolfe interviews Laurie Mason from Guardian Therapeutic Laser. Laurie discovered the class IV laser when her active swimming retriever, a 10-year-old duck toller, collapsed and couldn't walk or stand. And now she helps dogs and cats with home visits and laser treatments that make a huge impact on the quality of their lives and their owners.EPISODE NOTES: Shining a Light on Pet Pain: The Power of Class IV Laser TherapyBecome a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/animal-party-dog-cat-news-animal-facts--6666735/support.

Is your dog or cat in pain, or recovering from surgery or wound? Laser could help! What is a class IV laser? How does it work? What problems does it address? From Chihuahuas to Irish Wolfhounds and cats too Laurie has helped many pets with many different problems; aches, pains, circulation, teeth, hip, knee, and skin issues. This week Deborah Wolfe interviews Laurie Mason from Guardian Therapeutic Laser. Laurie discovered the class IV laser when her active swimming retriever, a 10-year-old duck toller, collapsed and couldn't walk or stand. And now she helps dogs and cats with home visits and laser treatments that make a huge impact on the quality of their lives and their owners. EPISODE NOTES: Shining a Light on Pet Pain: The Power of Class IV Laser Therapy

In this episode of the Uplevel Dairy Podcast, host Peggy Coffeen dives into the current landscape of dairy markets with Curtis Bosma from HighGround Dairy. The episode starts by giving listeners an overview of recent trends in dairy futures, including notable gains in Class III and Class IV prices and the implications for dairy producers. Curtis shares insights on the influence of managed money in the commodity markets and what this indicates about future market movements.Throughout the episode, Curtis discusses the critical impact of diseases such as the Blue Tongue virus in Europe and the H5N1 avian influenza in California. He highlights how these events affect global and local dairy production and what dairy farmers need to watch for regarding their milk supply and pricing. Curtis also offers advice on how dairy producers can navigate these tumultuous times by leveraging risk management strategies.The episode wraps up with an in-depth conversation about valuing corn silage, especially during the current harvest season. Curtis breaks down the various factors that should be considered, from managing shrinkage to understanding the financial implications of either growing or purchasing corn silage. This timely discussion is aimed at helping dairy farmers make informed decisions about their feed strategy to ensure financial stability and operational efficiency. Grab your September Market Report Here:  https://marketing.highgrounddairy.com/producer-market-update-september-2024. Information shared in this podcast is for educational purposes and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities.  Opinions expressed are current opinions as of September 18, 2024 at 10 a.m. CST and only represent the views of the speaker and not those of HighGround Trading, unless otherwise expressly noted.

In this episode our host, Dr Raquel Faria, discusses a very interesting case of refractory Class IV lupus nephritis with Professors Andrea Doria and Maria Dall'Era of the Lupus Academy Steering Committee. Disclaimer: During Lupus Academy podcast episodes, participants may refer to off label use of medicines for patients with lupus. Lupus Academy does not make any recommendations about using a medicine outside the terms of its approved licence for use.

In this episode, Dr. Emily Splichal (check out our first podcast together here) and I discuss foot health, exploring techniques to relieve foot tension and improve circulation, including the use of percussive guns, vibration rollers, and Naboso's Neural Ball. Additionally, you'll discover the connection between breath, toe flexion, and engaging the pelvic floor for enhanced stability and strength. Dr. Splichal also addresses bunions (and their reversibility through exercise and selecting proper footwear!), covers the effectiveness of toe spacers for foot health, reveals the link between walking speed and longevity, and much more! Dr. Emily Splichal, known as “The Movement Longevity Doc," is a functional podiatrist, a human movement specialist, and the founder of Naboso, a sensory-based product line designed to stimulate the nerves in the bottom of the feet to optimize foot awareness, foot strength, and foot recovery. She is also the author of the incredible book Barefoot Strong. Functional and regenerative medicine and the role of anti-aging science, as it relates to movement longevity, are Dr. Splichal's passions. Currently enrolled in a Fellowship for Anti-Aging and Regenerative Medicine from the American Academy of Anti-Aging Medicine (A4M), Dr. Splichal offers prolotherapy, stem cell therapy, whole body vibration, Class IV lasers, dry needling, acupuncture, and vitamin supplementation as an integral part of her treatment protocol. Full Show Notes: https://bengreenfieldlife.com/dremily Episode Sponsors:  ZBiotics Pre-Alcohol Probiotic: Use code BEN15 to get 15% off at zbiotics.com/BEN15. Manukora: Head to manukora.com/ben and get a free pack of honey sticks. Apollo: Head over to apolloneuro.com/bengreenfield and use code BG15 for 15% off. Magic Spoon: Scoop up these new crispy, crunchy, protein-packed treats at your nearest grocery store or visit MagicSpoon.com today! SiPhox: Visit siphox.health/ben with code BEN to get 10% off your health kit!See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Derek answers some questions ahead of The Pilgrimage tickets going on sale this Friday. What is The Pilgrimage? What is a Class IV road? What's it all about? How do the maps work? How much does it cost?

Derek and Hugh talk about our recent pre-running of the Vermont Class IV trails and the very unexpectedly difficult conditions we encountered on what was previously a green-level trail.

With Derek and McTavish. Class IV roads, Vermont Flooding, Derek's Military Land Rover 110 build and story about importing it from the UK.

What should the occlusion look like when you are restoring or replacing a Class IV restoration? This question is so basic yet so complex which is often not talked about enough. We go on all these composite courses and talk about the layering, but we don't talk enough about how to put the principles of occlusion into action. In this episode, Dr. Ibrahim will be talking about how Class IV Restorations can be optimised to get a long term predictable result. We also shared the two mechanical failures in dentistry and the step-by-step process of a Class IV restoration with occlusion in mind. https://youtu.be/JgbO6PDjSOg Watch PDP150 on Youtube The Protrusive Dental Pearl: Occlusion Whisperer – Ask your patient to bite together and listen – in a “good” occlusion you should hear lots of tooth-to-tooth contact, whereas a thud indicates an issue. Use this in addition to more traditional methods of assessing the occlusion, and make sure you are satisfied with the occlusion before asking the patient “how does that feel?” Are you ready to learn Occlusion in a way that makes sense, in your own time, with first class support and career boosting confidence to deliver Restorative Dentistry to the highest standard? Then join Occlusion Basics and Beyond Online Course with IAS Academy Download Protrusive App on iOS and Android and Claim your Verifiable CPD/CE by answering a few questions + You can get EARLY ACCESS to the episode + EXCLUSIVE content Highlights of this episode: 00:49 The Protrusive Dental Pearl02:23 Dr. Mahmoud Ibrahim03:07 Class IV Lesions07:21 Mechanical Failure09:28 The “Envelope of Function” and “Chewing Space”13:50 Dealing with Limited Chewing Space17:49 Mock-Ups19:35 Dots and Lines21:14 The Process If you enjoyed this episode, check this another episode by Dr. Mahmoud Ibrahim, Next Level Occlusion (Basics Part 2).

GDP Script/ Top Stories for Tuesday May 9thPublish Date: May 8 MondayFrom the Henssler Financial Studio Welcome to the Gwinnett Daily Post PodcastToday is Tuesday My 9th , and happy 73rd birthday to the Piano Man, Billy Joel***Audio Piano ManI'm Bruce Jenkins and here are your top stories presented by Peggy Slappey Properties1. Mistrial declared for man accused of killing teen and leaving body at Yellow River Park2. Gwinnett police arrest second suspect in November 2022 murder in unincorporatedNorcross3. And a Braselton man charged with murdering parentsWe'll have all this and more on the Gwinnett Daily Post podcast. Commercial Slappey PropertiesStory 1. MistrialThe Gwinnett County District Attorney's Office is weighing its options after a mistrial was declared for most of thecharges against Austin Ford, a man accused of killing 18-year-old Tori Lang and leaving her body in Yellow River Park in2019. While Ford was found guilty on three of the eight felony charges against him, including concealing the death ofanother and two counts of theft by taking, the jury could not reach a verdict on the remaining five charges, includingfelony murder. Prosecutors will consult with Lang's family before deciding whether to seek a new trial.STORY 2: Second arrestA second suspect, Brian Sanchez Duarte, 30, was arrested on May 5 in connection with the November 2021 murder ofAlinton Joel Riveria-Zuniga, 22, who was shot on Estates Court in unincorporated Norcross and later died from hisinjuries. Another suspect, Lawrenceville resident Jose Caraballo, 29, was arrested in January in connection with themurder. Duarte is facing felony murder, aggravated assault, and possession of a firearm charges, while Caraballo isfacing felony murder, aggravated assault, armed robbery, and possession of a firearm charges. Anyone withinformation is asked to call detectives at 770-513-5300 or Crime Stoppers at 404-577-8477.Story 3: MurderA man from Braselton has been charged with two counts of murder for allegedly killing his parents. The HallCounty Sheriff's Office said Daniel Edward Rawlins, 39, is accused of killing his parents, Leanette Rawlins, 66, andWilliam Rawlins, 67, at their home. When deputies arrived at the home, they found the husband and wifeunresponsive. The cause of death for the couple has not yet been released. Deputies used Flock cameras to findRawlins' car and ultimately tracked him to a hotel where he was arrested without incident. The motive for thekillings is still unknown.Commercial MOGCommercial Tom Wages - then ObitsSTORY 4:JudgeTuwanda Rush Williams, the deputy county attorney in Gwinnett County, Georgia, has announced her candidacyfor an open Superior Court judge's seat in 2024. Williams will run for the seat currently held by Gwinnett SuperiorCourt Judge Karen Beyers, who will not seek re-election. Williams, who joined the county's law department in2005, will step down from her position on May 17 to run for the office. She has been praised for her work as anattorney and community leader. Her campaign is centered on temperance, transparency, and trust, aiming toensure Gwinnett County remains the best place in Georgia to live, work, and raise families. Story 5: Glass recycling Gwinnett County officials have accepted a $175,110 grant from the Georgia Environmental Protection Division toopen 10 new glass recycling sites across the county. The grant will expand the county's glass recycling program andhelp to achieve the Board of Commissioners' Strategic Priority of Sustainability and Stewardship. The county willprovide $135,000 as a local match for the grant. The 10 new sites are expected to raise the amount of glasscollected for recycling to at least 70 tons. County officials plan to open one new drop-off site every other monththrough the end of 2024, and educational campaigns will reach 60,000 contacts by the same time. We'll be rightbackCommercial: ESOG – Ingles 1Story 6: PatagoniaGwinnett County police are asking for the public's help in identifying two women who allegedly stole an unknownnumber of Patagonia T-shirts valued at $3,500 from Palmetto Moon at the Mall of Georgia. The pair was caught onsurveillance camera concealing the merchandise and leaving the store late last week. The suspects are describedas Black females, possibly in their early 20s. Anyone with information is asked to contact the police or AtlantaCrime Stoppers. Crime Stoppers offers a cash reward for information leading to an arrest and indictment, andtipsters can remain anonymous.Story 7: Parks and RecGwinnett County's parks department is one of four finalists for the American Academy for Park and RecreationAdministration and National Recreation and Park Association's Gold Medal in the Class I category, which includesparks departments that serve more than 400,000 residents. The Gold Medal is the highest award a parksdepartment can receive. Gwinnett has been a Gold Medal finalist five times and won the award once. In addition,the City of Douglasville Parks and Recreation is a Gold Medal finalist in Class IV, which includes departments thatserve 30,001 to 75,000 residents. The winners will be announced at the National Recreation and Park Associationconference in October.Story 8: CollinsDiana Collins led the Brookwood Broncos to their first-ever state championship in girls' basketball with a 31-3record. She was named The Daily Post's Girls Basketball Player of the Year, and her career total of 2,140 points seta school record, breaking the previous mark of 1,735 held since 1985. Collins had set her sights on taking the teamto another level when she first joined, and she accomplished that goal over the past four seasons. Coach CourtneyMincy praised her work ethic, tenacity, and competitive drive, and Collins will be studying biomedical engineeringat Ohio State while also playing for Sweden's basketball team.We're back in a momentHenssler 60Thanks again for listening to today's Gwinnett Daily Post podcast. Did you know over 50% of Americans listen topodcasts weekly? Make sure you join us for our next episode and be sure to share this podcast on social mediawith your friends and family. Add us to your Alexa Flash Briefing or your Google Home Briefing and be sure to like,follow, and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. Thanks to all our sponsors Henssler Financial www.hensslerkennesaw.com Peggy Slappey Properties www.psponline.com   Mall of Georgia Chrysler Dodge Jeep www.mallofgeorgiachryslerdodgejeep.com Engineered Solutions of Georgia www.esogrepair.com  Ingles Markets www.ingles-markets.com See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Derek and Chris talk about the beginning of The Pilgrimage, how they got started in off-roading and overlanding and what to expect when attending The Pilgrimage. The Pilgrimage 2023 is October 5-8 2023 in South Royalton, Vermont.

Another Timmerman on the podcast? Don't mind if we do! Kevin and Zach are joined by the Dr. Clint Timmerman (the OTHER one) at VoD 2023 to talk myths and tips!  Clint's myth: You shouldn't give Septocaine (Articaine) in a block because it has a higher incidence of paresthesia. Clint says "give it in blocks, bro!" Clint's tip: bevel the same amount of real estate as the amount of missing tooth structure in a Class IV composite. (thanks Dennis Hartlieb!) Some links from the show: Totally Oral podcast If you want to interact with us, head over to the Very Clinical Facebook Group! Join the Very Dental Facebook group using the password "Timmerman," Hornbrook," McWethy" or "Lipscomb." The Very Dental Podcast network is and will remain free to download. If you'd like to support the shows you love at Very Dental then show a little love to the people that support us! -- Crazy Dental has everything you need from cotton rolls to equipment and everything in between and the best prices you'll find anywhere! If you head over to verydentalpodcast.com/crazy and use coupon code “verydental10” you'll get another 10% off your order! Go save yourself some money and support the show all at the same time! -- The Wonderist Agency is basically a one stop shop for marketing your practice and your brand. From logo redesign to a full service marketing plan, the folks at Wonderist have you covered! Go check them out at verydentalpodcast.com/wonderist! -- Enova Illumination makes the very best in loupes and headlights, including their new ergonomic angled prism loupes! They also distribute loupe mounted cameras and even the amazing line of Zumax microscopes! If you want to help out the podcast while upping your magnification and headlight game, you need to head over to verydentalpodcast.com/enova to see their whole line of products! -- CAD-Ray offers the best service on a wide variety of digital scanners, printers, mills and even  their very own browser based design software, Clinux! CAD-Ray has been a huge supporter of the Very Dental Podcast Network and I can tell you that you'll get no better service on everything digital dentistry than the folks from CAD-Ray. Go check them out at verydentalpodcast.com/CADRay!

Dr. Mark Mouw has started and run several high-volume chiropractic offices and is also the co-founder of Chiro Matchmakers. In this episode Dr. Mouw discusses why he traded in his Class IV lasers for Erchonia lasers. Also, he discusses how to implement any new service or technology into a busy practice without disrupting what is working. This episode is for any practitioner who likes or needs good systems! https://www.mouwchiropractic.com/

In this episode of The Franchise Life, Stacie Shannon is joined by Dr. Tomschack (Dr. T), CEO & Founder of HealthSource America's Chiropractor, and Aaron Sawyer, Director of Franchise Development. If you've ever wanted a piece of the US $19.5B US chiropractic market, now is your chance!   With 140+ clinics across the United States, HealthSource is the nation's largest primary care provider of Chiropractic and Wellness! HealthSource employs a unique blend of chiropractic care, rehabilitation, and other wellness services (7 revenue streams) to help patients achieve their goals and live life to the fullest. Their state-of-the-art technology and treatments, combined with their skilled and compassionate staff, make HealthSource a trusted provider in the healthcare industry.    Dr. T's passion for his business and the chiropractic industry is infectious. Dr. T shares how Millennials, the largest and fastest-growing generation, turn to chiropractic care for drug-free pain management and health maintenance. With its seven revenue streams, ranging from chiropractic care to functional rehabilitation to Class IV laser to sleep aid, HealthSource is one-of-a-kind in its space.   What is truly exceptional is that HealthSource has pivoted its business model to allow non-Chiropractic professionals to invest in the model. Dr. T shares how their model supports investors from all backgrounds to successfully own a HealthSource clinic by employing two chiropractic physicians and one front desk person per clinic.     A HealthSource franchise opportunity allows aspiring entrepreneurs to own businesses in the growing healthcare industry. With a proven franchise system and over a decade of experience, HealthSource provides comprehensive training and support to help franchisees establish and operate their own HealthSource clinic.    Interested in learning more about HealthSource? Reach out today to stacie@fusionfranchising.com or book a 15-min intro call to start your franchise ownership journey! Calendly - Stacie Shannon.   We match you up with the perfect franchise concepts to meet your needs and stay with you 100% throughout the process to assist with funding needs, legal needs, accountant reviews, etc. We are your franchise partners!   Follow us on social media:   YouTube:  (3) The Franchise Life - YouTube   LinkedIn:  Stacie Shannon, MBA | LinkedIn   Instagram:  Franchising Consulting Palm Beach (@fusionfranchising) • Instagram photos and videos Facebook:  Fusion Franchising | Facebook

You have a story to share. You have experiences that move, inspire, encourage, and empower others to live their best lives. Kimberly Crowe is passionate about helping entrepreneurs and small business owners find their unique voice and share their stories. Kimberly shares a personal story about discovering Abundance at a 31 Flavors Ice Cream Store as a kid. You really want to hear this story because it will change how you view Abundance forever!About the Guest:Kimberly Crowe is an award-winning, international inspirational public speaker, keynote speaker, TEDx speaker, and an authority on speak-to-sell. She is also a best-selling author, and serial entrepreneur. She is the broadcast personality of the weekly online show, Speakers Playhouse, and the founder of Entrepreneurs Rocket Fuel. Kimberly is known for her expertise on audience engagement. Her mission is to make speaking on stages super accessible and super fun for entrepreneurs and coaches to share their message in the world.In addition to her professional accomplishments, Kimberly is a mother of two and an adventure seeker. She has hiked sections of the Pacific Crest Trail, walked 800 kilometers across the country of Spain on the Camino del Norte, navigated Class IV rapids with one of Costa Rica's Olympic whitewater champions, and traversed 200 miles on horseback through Canada's Jasper National Park. Her motto is “If it's not fun, it's not worth doing.”Free Gift Link: Ten expert tips for speakers to get their audience to take action from a virtual stage. https://checkingout.thrivecart.com/ten-expert-secrets/Social Media Links:LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kimberlyscrowe/Web: www.entrepreneursrocketfuel.com or www.SpeakersPlayhouse.comFacebook Group: https://www.facebook.com/groups/entrepreneursrocketfuelTwitter: https://twitter.com/EntrepreneursR4Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/entrepreneursrocket/Pinterest: https://www.pinterest.ph/entrepreneursrocketfuel/YouTube: www.entrepreneursrocketfuel.com/youtubeContact: Support@entrepreneursrocketfuel.comTiktok: @speakersplayhouse https://www.tiktok.com/@speakersplayhouse About the Host, Elaine Starling:An international TEDx speaker, bestselling author, coach and mentor, ElaineStarling is recognized for her video show and podcast, The Abundance Journey.After a comprehensive conversation with our higher power during a stroke, Elainecreated The Abundance Journey 6 week course to

Many veterinary professionals are familiar with Class IV or “cold” laser therapy for pet patients suffering from arthritis and other inflammatory conditions. The challenge many pet parent face is bringing their dog or cat to the vet clinic for regular treatments. This week, MedcoVet's CEO, Alon Landa, joins us to discuss how veterinary professionals can prescribe in-home laser therapy for their patients. Hosts Dr. Ernie Ward and Beckie Mosser, RVT, are joined by Alon Landa to discuss how vets can increase compliance and adherence to laser therapy regimens. Alon shares his unique (and out of this world - literally!) story of how he “landed” in veterinary therapeutics and the science behind photobiomodulation in pets. Viewfinders, we're excited to bring you this innovative approach to helping your clients provide the best care for their pets using cutting-edge medical techniques. To learn more: MedcoVet Website: https://link.medcovet.com/vvp_website To try a demo unit: https://link.medcovet.com/vvp_demo_unit For pet owners to get a consult: https://link.medcovet.com/vvp_for_pet_owners #veterinary #veterinary #vettech #veterinarytechnician#veterinary #podcast

I'm excited to introduce this week's guest, Doug Noll. Doug was born with multiple disabilities: he had both audio and visual disabilities as well as two club feet. After struggling with sports in school, he turned to Scouts and the outdoors and started to thrive. Doug is a whitewater guide, Level III PSIA ski instructor, sailor, and fly fisher. He has also been a rock climber, mountaineer, competitive swimmer, and Class IV kayaker. His various outdoor adventures have taught him discipline, persistence, patience, mental endurance, and fortitude, which he applies in his career as a peacemaker and mediator. In this episode, we discuss Doug's adventures, how he overcame his disabilities to thrive in the outdoors, and what he's learned over the years.   About Doug Noll Douglas E. Noll, JD, MA left a successful career as a trial lawyer to become a peacemaker. His calling is to serve humanity, and he executes his calling at many levels. He is an award-winning author, teacher, trainer, and highly experienced mediator. Doug's work carries him from international work to helping people resolve deep interpersonal and ideological conflicts to training life inmates to be peacemakers and mediators in maximum-security prisons. His fourth book, De-Escalate: How to Calm an Angry Person in 90 Seconds or Less, was published by Beyond Word Publishing in September 2017. De-Escalate is now in four languages and in its second printing. He is the co-founder of Prison of Peace, and creator of the Noll Affect Labeling System. In 2012, Doug was honored by California Lawyer Magazine as California Attorney of the Year.   Doug's Links LinkedIn Facebook Facebook Twitter  Instagram DN YouTube EC YouTube Pinterest  Free gift   Listen To This Episode        What You'll Learn How Doug overcame his disabilities to thrive in the outdoors Meaningful moments in Doug's adventures and what he's learned from them How Doug's adventures informed his career as a mediator   Things We Discussed Doug's Difficult Conversations Project  Outward Bound  Counterstrain therapy  Rolfing  Peacemaking: Practicing at the Intersection of Law and Human Conflict  Sex, Politics & Religion at the Office: The New Competitive Advantage  De-Escalate: How to Calm an Angry Person in 90 Seconds or Less  Elusive Peace: How Modern Diplomatic Strategies Could Better Resolve World Conflicts    Related Episodes 436 Tori Joy Geiger ~ How to Have Outdoor Adventures When You've Got a Chronic Illness 385 Holly Worton ~ How Your Adventures Can Revolutionize Your Relationship With Your Body (now with downloadable transcript!) 373 How Outdoors Adventures Can Help You Give Yourself Permission to Be You (now with downloadable transcript!) 367 Holly Worton ~ Finding Yourself Through Solo Travel and Outdoor Adventures (now with downloadable transcript!) 293 Holly Worton ~ How to Get Back on Track & Get Sh!t Done After Illness or Burnout (now with downloadable transcript!)   Connect With Holly Website Facebook Instagram Twitter Pinterest Google+ LinkedIn   How to Subscribe Click here to subscribe via iTunes Click here to subscribe via RSS Click here to subscribe via Stitcher   Help Spread the Word If you enjoyed this episode, please head on over to iTunes and kindly leave us a rating and a review! You can also subscribe, so you'll never miss an episode.   Connect With Holly Website Facebook Instagram Twitter Pinterest Google+ LinkedIn   How to Subscribe Click here to subscribe via iTunes Click here to subscribe via RSS Click here to subscribe via Stitcher   Help Spread the Word If you enjoyed this episode, please head on over to iTunes and kindly leave us a rating and a review! You can also subscribe, so you'll never miss an episode.

T3 and Ted Jr. got together to talk next year's milk pricing, and they made pretty quick work of the topic. Both have bearish outlooks to start the year. After Q1, their predictions start to diverge. How far down will milk prices go? Will they jump back up above $20 next year? When? How will the market respond to recession? The duo works through Class III and Class IV supply and demand to come up with some answers. T3 expects macroeconomics to stifle demand, and Ted Jr. puts his faith in butter to maintain its position as a staple spread. They skim the surface of an exports discussion, with China in lockdown but looming. Fifteen minutes and a friendly wager later, they settle on a confident outlook for most of next year. T3: Alright. So, Dad, you tend to be bullish, especially compared to me, but lately it seems to me that you've been a little bit more bearish than me. So since we're sitting here in the middle of November, what do you think markets are going to be like in 2023? What are your thoughts right now? Ted Jr: Well, I think it's rather scary that I'm the bearish one right now and evidently you're not. T3: I'm not saying that I'm not bearish. I'm just saying I'm not as bearish as you are. Ted Jr: First of all, let's look at the overall marketplace. We've got production now on the upside in the US. Cow numbers are up. Production's up over 1%. We're heading into a recession. I think that's generally an accepted dogma. But the international environment is also changing. The European production is starting to mosey up a little bit. And evidently, feed is moving out of the Ukraine and feed prices are not on an upward trajectory anymore. I'm not saying that the feed prices are going to go down. I guess, the point that I'm trying to make is that the dichotomy has ratcheted up to a little bit lower level. So if we go back a couple of years, pulling numbers from the air, the lower level was probably Class III somewhere around $15. And today with the corn price doubling or more, I'm going to argue that the lower level is probably somewhere around $19 on the Class III. That translates to cheese prices around a $1.90 and it translates to for whey prices to be somewhat higher than they are now, which my suspicion is even though China's got their own ration economic problems, they're still going to need to feed pigs. And then the butter market is going to be stronger than normal, but it's certainly not going to be $3. So that also would translate to a Class IV price somewhere in the $19 range. So look at where we are. We're up limit today and evidently people are buying cheese and I don't really get the feeling that cheese is all that short. I think filling the pipelines for Christmas is more than likely still the reason it's going up. But with butter and with cheese and other dairy products, when we get to Christmas time, as far as I can see, it's over. So I'm not arguing that the bottom is going to drop out and we're going to get down into the lower teens, but I'm arguing that the market is going to settle to what I consider a lower ratchet level in the $19 range. So that's the extent of my bearishness. There's obviously other things that could happen. I mean, you have a war going on in Europe and maybe the feed price situation changes and maybe a lot of cows expire and so on. T3: And actually I would agree with you. I think we'll be right about in there too. So, Dad, here's my question for you. I've got my Class III and Class IV calculator spreadsheet out. So what do you think the butter market's going to be in the first quarter? Ted Jr: I'm going to say $2. T3: What do you think the nonfat market will be? Ted Jr: It's hard to say bucking a quarter $1.30 maybe, somewhere in the area. T3: I'll put in $1.30. So if we have $2 butter in 1.30 non-fat, you're talking a Class IV price of $17.48. Let's go ahead and round it up to $17.50. Now in this case,

What else is happening on hump day? The Class IV milk price finally changed, it's microneedling day and we are headed to Stillwater this weekend!

Geoff Vanden Heuvel of Milk Producers Council and Sarina Sharp of Ag Business Solutions and Daily Dairy Report joins T3, Gus and Ted Jr. for a discussion on California water today and moving forward. Geoff enlightens the group on localized production cost challenges and shares some anecdotes about farmers dealing with expensive feed. Sarina and Gus talk about regional challenges to expansion and the adverse economics limiting dairy in much of the eastern U.S.  T3 sees cause for Class IV prices to stay high, and, after a lively conversation, the group shares a healthy laugh at Ted Jr.'s expense. T3: Welcome everybody to the Milk Check. This month we've got two guests. Welcome Sarina Sharp with the Daily Dairy Report in Ag business and also Geoff Vanden Heuvel. Geoff, why don't you quickly introduce yourself? Geoff Vanden Heuvel: Well, Ted, it's great to be here. I'm a faithful listener of the Milk Check, so it's fun to see you guys by the power of Zoom. I'm not sure if our listeners will see that. But I was a dairy farmer in Southern California for 39 years, and at 2018, urbanization took my dairy. I was very involved in water and milk pricing issues as part of the Milk Producer's Council, which is Dairy Farmer Trade Association board. And when I sold my cows in 2018, I was going to move to the Central Valley because I had kids and grandkids here. Given my experience in water policy, the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act had just been passed in California and was being implemented throughout the Central Valley. And Milk Producers Board asked me to be the dairy industry's guy on water supply, and the implementation of what we call SGMA, Sustainable Ground and Water Management Act. So since 2018, mid-year, that's what I've been focusing a lot of my time on. That particular Act is designed to be implemented at the local level. So what that meant was I needed to identify where we had dairies in the Central Valley that were in what the state had designated as critically overdrafted basins. That turns out that's pretty much all of the Central Valley. It's critically overdrafted. There were dozens of new groundwater sustainability agencies that had been formed as a result of that law. They were all in the early stages of organization, and then gathering data, with a goal of putting plans together for how they were going to bring their area into basically balance or sustainability. So in the course of that I cover, we have dairies from south of Bakersfield all the way up to Stockton that are in overdrafted basins. That's about a little over 200 miles. So north to south, I spent a lot of time on the road. But that's what I do, is focus on water supply for the California Dairy Industry. T3: Well thanks Geoff and welcome. Dad, I know you've got a question that you're burning to ask, so I'll let you go ahead and start it off. Ted Jr: I've bet every time you open the papers these days you're seeing pictures, and hearing dissertations on how miserable the water supply is in California. Just yesterday I picked up the Sunday edition, and I had pictures of parched land, perfectly brown, not a bit of green on it, but the last number we have on milk production is up 2.5%. So how do we manage to have all these dire predictions of drought? And we've had predictions about drought for 50 years. And every time we hear it, the milk production in California goes up. Is this the year that all of a sudden we're going to have a drought that really counts? Let me pose that question to you as a matter of getting the ball rolling. Geoff: I hope not. We would hope that we can manage our way through it. But it's real. If we don't get some rain and snow, and we don't have any surface water, I think we are going to begin to bite down on the water availability, particularly in the Southern San Joaquin. Because those water districts there now, the groundwater sustainability agencies that I've described to you,

Authenticity, humanity, and integrity are just a few of the words to describe the two gentlemen on this show and the direction that the conversation went in. When it comes to pairing guests for the Culture Crush Business Podcast, we pair strategically. We tend to pair a company that has a great culture with a company that offers resources to improve culture. For this show, each of the two companies that were on the show fit into both of these categories. BOTH companies are growing a great culture while ALSO supporting companies with improving their company culture. This conversation started strongly in the direction and importance of DEI in the workplace and supporting individuals in being their authentic selves in a psychologically safe work environment. Psychological safety is a shared belief held by members of a team that the team is safe for interpersonal risk taking. It gives the employees the opportunity to disagree and still be supported in the workplace. This was part of the bigger conversation of things that leaders and companies can do to support the mental health of their employees. Companies can't just talk about supporting mental health- they actually need to take action on it. We walked away with tons of examples on how to do this!! Ask the right questions What am I doing and what is the company doing that can be improved on? How are you doing professionally? How are you doing personally? Have open visibility to what goes on the calendar Therapy sessions Dentist Appointments Doctor appointments A block on the calendar for self care Support from leadership to the staff in being their own authentic self Provide a stipend that allows them additional mental health support Allowing them the time for self care during the work day Letter from the CEO articulating the importance of mental health Putting in boundaries for when emails can be sent to the staff When trying to find out more info about Hummingbird Humany, head to their website www.hummingbirdhumanity.com and go to the resources tab where they offer free resources to the Hummingbird community. From the website, visitors can also sign-up for their weekly newsletter or follow their social media accounts. evolvedMD has a variety of resources listed at their website as well. Head to their main page, https://www.evolvedmd.com/ and then head over to their resources and news tab. Both Sentari and Brian are on podcasts out there as well! Make sure to find them and follow them! Let's just say this conversation will definitely have to have a Part B to it! Hummingbird Humanity is committed to amplifying the voices of the unheard. Hummingbird's offerings include a consulting practice which partners with companies to build human-centered workplace cultures through assessment, strategy, and implementation; a speakers bureau featuring diverse voices who share about their lived experiences and offer suggestions for tangible action in their message; a growing collection of children's books and resources for grown-ups to have age-appropriate diversity conversations with kids; and a soon to be launched practice for coaching and facilitation helping leaders develop their skills to be inclusive and people-centered. Brian McComak is a consultant, speaker, author, and facilitator with over 20 years of experience in Diversity, Equity, & Inclusion, HR, company culture, change management, internal communications, and employee experience. He is the founder and CEO of Hummingbird Humanity, a consulting firm that cultivates and champions inclusive workplace cultures and human-centered leadership. Connect with Brian on LinkedIn and Instagram. evolvedMD is leading the integration of behavioral health services in modern primary care. Uniquely upfront and ongoing, our distinctive model not only places but embeds behavioral health specialists onsite at your practice. We offer an economically viable and better way to integrate behavioral health that ultimately drives improved patient outcomes. Sentari Minor is most passionate about bringing the best out of individuals and entities. His love languages are strategy, storytelling, and social impact. As Head of Strategy for evolvedMD, Mr. Minor is at the forefront of healthcare innovation with a scope of work that includes strategy, corporate development, growth, branding, culture, and coaching. Prior to evolvedMD, he worked with some of the Nation's most prominent and curious CEOs and entrepreneurs advising on philanthropy, policy, and everything social good as Regional Director of Alder (formerly Gen Next) [PHX + DAL + SFO] and strengthened social enterprises as Director at venture philanthropy firm, Social Venture Partners. A Phoenix native, Mr. Minor continued his education in the Midwest and is an alumnus of DePauw University in Greencastle, Indiana where he studied English with an emphasis in Creative Writing. He is also a member of Class IV of the American Express Leadership Academy through the Arizona State University Lodestar Center. If you want to profile him: he's an ENTJ (Myers Briggs), a Maverick (Predictive Index), and trimodal Blue/Green/Red (Emergenetics). Where does he shine? In high-touch stakeholder engagement, capital raising, public relations, and strategic planning. With his background, Mr. Minor serves on the board of directors for a diverse set of social impact organizations, as a venture mentor for socially conscious companies nationwide, and as a facilitator for businesses who want organizational clarity. Committed to strengthening brands doing good in the world, Mr. Minor speaks nationally and publishes often on strategy, marketing, leadership, capacity building, social entrepreneurship, and engaging high-profile leaders in the dialogue of today. For his impact on business and community, he was honored among the Phoenix Business Journal's “40 Under 40” class of 2022. When he's not busy changing the world, self-care to him looks like working out, stirring the pot on social media, being an amateur author, and spending time with the people who make him smile. Connect with Sentari on LinkedIn and Instagram. About Culture Crush Culture is not just a tag word to be thrown around. It is not something you throw in job descriptions to draw people to applying for jobs within a company. According to Marcus Buckingham and Ashley Goodall in their book Nine Lies About Work, “Culture is the tenants of how we behave. It's like a family creed. This is how we operate and treat each other in the family.” As a growing company- Culture Crush Business Podcast is THE culture improvement resource that supports companies and leaders.  Our Mission is to improve company cultures so people WANT to go to work. Employees and leaders should like where they work and we think this is possible. Within the company: Culture Crush has Vetted Resources and Partnerships with the right people and resources that can help improve your company culture. On this podcast:  We focus on everything surrounding businesses with good company culture. We will talk with company leaders to learn about real-life experiences, tips, and best practices for creating a healthy work environment where employees are finding joy and satisfaction in their work while also striving and growing within the company.  We also find the companies that offer resources to help improve company culture and showcase them on the show to share their tips and tricks for growing culture. About the Host Kindra Maples  is spartan racer, past animal trainer, previous magician's assistant, and has a weakness for Oreo cookie shakes. Her journey working with people actually started working with animals as a teenager (don't worry we won't go that far back for her bio). She worked for over 15 years in the zoo industry working with animals and the public. Her passion of working with animals shifted into working with people in education, operations and leadership roles. From there her passion of leadership and helping people develop has continued to grow. Then came the opportunity for leading  the Culture Crush Business Podcast and she jumped on it. Leadership, growth, and strong company cultures are all areas that Kindra is interested in diving into further. Shout Outs We want to thank a few people for their behind the scenes effort in helping this relaunch to come to life. James Johnson with Tailored Penguin Media Company LLC.– It is a small, but powerful video production company with a goal to deliver the very best by articulating the vision of your brand in a visually creative way. Gordon Murray with Flash PhotoVideo, LLC. -Flash Gordon has been photographing since high school and evolving since then with new products that will equip, encourage, engage, and enable. Renee Blundon with Renee Blundon Design – She is not only one of the best free divers (that's not how she helped with the podcast) but she is great with graphics design and taking the direction for the vision that you have while also adding creative ideas to bring to your vision to life. These are just a few of the folks that supported the relaunch of the podcast. If you would like to be part of the Culture Crush team or would like to support underwriting the show- please reach out: info@culturecrushbusiness.com

With August's milk production report in mind, the trading team gathered for another monthly mass balance and charting meeting. This month, though, we were blessed by two special guests: Steve Spencer and Vuko Karov from Freshagenda. Don kicked the meeting off by modeling domestic milk production and mass balance expectations for the rest of the year, with special focus on Q4. Then, we handed the reigns over to Steve and Vuko, who guided us through a workshopping version of their Dairy Trade Simulator (DTS). The Freshagenda team tested some ‘What if?' questions on their model and argued that market fundamentals suggest that we should see cheese futures over $2 soon. T3 countered with some points about difficult domestic freight and contractual obligations forcing cheese from high-growth areas. Then, to shift perspective entirely, Jacob suggested that historic correlations driving market fundamentals could break, and that there may be reason to feel bullish Class IV and bearish Class III after all. T3: Welcome back to The Milk Check. This month we return to our mass balance discussion with Don Street and the rest of the trading gang, and this time we have a couple of special guests: Steve Spencer and Vuko Karov from Freshagenda, an Australia-based supply chain and market analysis firm with some great data about how milk production and pricing may evolve in 2023. Welcome to this discussion, let's get started. Steve: Thank you. Vuko: Thanks so much. Steve: Thanks for having us in your meeting. We appreciate the opportunity to join the discussion, let's have some fun and see what it brings. T3: That sounds great. So Don, why don't you go ahead and lead us off. Don: All right, here we go. Balance update, August, 2022. So in spite of Ted being more accurate than I am on these projections and winning bourbon from me, I just want to say that if USDA would get the cow numbers right the first time, I'd be much more accurate. But June was revised downwards to where it was flat. I had actually had a negative 0.02 prediction, so I think that's reasonably close. And for Q2, which we finished down an average of 4/10 for a percent on milk. July finally goes positive. If that holds through the revision, when August is announced again, I was 2/10 of a percent over the 3/10 that was actually reported. Steve and Vuko, these are all 24 state numbers, not national numbers. I think I'm reasonably dialed in spite of the revisions, which brings us to August. I'm, at this point, thinking we'll be up 1% on milk, but the bottom line is that the cow herd will, in the couple of months, be higher than prior year instead of lower than prior year. Instead of being 60 or 78,000 cows below a year ago in August, when we see the numbers, we're going to be 25 to 30,000 cows below a year ago. And in September, we're going to more or less be equal. And then we start to see whether this grows or not. We're going to have more cows than we did in the prior year, which will contribute to higher milk production numbers. I've tried to recast this a little bit to just show you the impact, because June, July, we're up 8/10, one full percent on milk per cow, but fewer cows is the offset. In August, I think we'll be a little bit higher, mostly because of the poor performance of August '21. So I think we'll be up 1% on milk for August, but then I don't want to say that we're just going to continue to move higher but these changes in milk per cow are going to be 1.2, 1.3, maybe 1.4, but we're going to be something over 1%. And then you start to add more cows. And this is of whole certainty, unless we all of a sudden see a shrink in the herd that we don't anticipate because slaughter rates still seem to be lower, not higher. You're going to wind up with 1.4% more milk, maybe as much as 1.8 but somewhere in that range, but it'll be a marked difference than what we've experienced so far this year. Maybe just to take a look at components.

Dr. Jeff Shebovsky, D. C. discusses Class IV lasers that helps you “ditch the drugs” and “skip the scalpel.”https://www.reliefnowlaserorlando.com407-871-6267Orlando Laser Pain Center provides a proprietary “gentle & painless“ Laser solution to your debilitating injuries. We can help your body to reduce the agonizing inflammation, swelling, and pain while speeding up the repair and healing process. Let's help you recover and enjoy your active and pain-free life again! Contact us to find out how to avoid the knife and reduce or eliminate the drugs! Let's get to the root cause versus masking your symptoms.Since 1994, Orlando Laser Pain Center has been helping patients with non-drug and non-surgical pain relief. We help you “ditch the drugs” and “skip the scalpel”.Now more than ever, people are recognizing the benefits that non-drug and non-surgical treatments can bring. At Orlando Laser Pain Center, we are all about helping our patients achieve their health goals.When you come for an appointment, you'll be met by one of our professionals who will assist personally and with a friendly smile. Our tailored programs specifically focus on the pain relief needs of each one of our patients.No two programs look the same. We look to use the most effective, yet least invasive techniques, to offer the best services that can help you obtain the health goals you have in mind.We also provide chiropractic, medical, and physical therapy services within our three locations in Central Florida (Orlando, Ocoee, and Apopka).Orlando Laser Pain Center, as a provider of the Relief Now Laser Method, can help you maintain and achieve relief of pain and a better quality of life.Let us help you “ditch the drugs” and “skip the scalpel.”407-871-6267North / Apopka2185 E Semoran Blvd,Apopka FL 32703South Orlando4170 Town Center Blvd#100, Orlando FL 32837West / Ocoee288 Moore Rd,Ocoee FL 34761 The Optimal Health Showhttps://businessinnovatorsradio.com/optimal-health-show/Source: https://businessinnovatorsradio.com/orlando-laser-pain-center-dr-jeff-shebovsky-interviewed-on-optimal-health-about-reliefnow-laser-methods

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On this remarkably bullish episode of The Milk Check, the Teds bring in T.C. Jacoby & Co's fluid milk team to talk about the market from their perspective. Gus Jacoby, president of fluid dairy ingredients and dairy support, leads the discussion with help from milk marketing manager Greg Scheer and fluid sales manager Jared Miklasz. Discussion lingered on tightness in the market, which points to a Q4 where we are short on milk domestically and internationally. Ted Jr. suggests the market is underestimating its own upside potential after being spoiled by long milk for about ten years. Gus agrees, and T3 teases the topic of discussion for the podcast's 50th episode. T3: Welcome to the Milk Check podcast. Today, we have our fluid group joining us. While my dad and I like to get on this podcast and just debate back and forth what we think markets are doing, picking out certain issues, it's Gus and Jared and Greg and Anna, who really are in the trenches, working with the dairy farmers in the different processors on the fluid side that we work with. And we thought it would be a great idea to have them lead the discussion today. And so I'd like to welcome Greg Scheer, who leads our Milk team, Jared Miklasz, who leads our Cream and UF Milk team, and my brother, Gus, who runs our fluid group. And really just give us their analysis of what they're seeing in the market today. With that Gus, I'll just turn it over to you. Gus: All right. Well, thank you, Teddy. We have a very interesting marketplace at this moment in time. A number of months now we've seen contraction, but with respect to milk production. But we've also seen some other areas, some manufactured liquids that have been pretty dynamic. And I guess, adverse for some of those folks who are looking for solids in one way, shape or form. And then we have that dynamic of Class IV and Class III, where Class IV is hovering above Class III which presents some challenges as well as opportunities for folks within our industry. But just to start with, I think what we want to mention is that at this moment in time, we've all seen the most recent milk production report showing that April was down a percentage point in milk production. We had a year ago, nine and a half million cows in the US dairy herd. And now we have 100,000 less cows in the US dairy herd. So that puts things in perspective for what we're dealing with and what we're looking at as we get out of this spring flush so to speak and into the second half of the year when folks, I think are a little bit more concerned about finding the solids they need to fill orders. To begin with, I think the Eastern half of the country is tight milk. And in addition to tight milk, we also have a major cheese plant that has come online in Michigan that has soaked up a bunch of butter fat, and that presents a prospect for cream supplies as well. And then you have the freight impact of traveling product throughout our country, whether it be farm milk and the impact on the producer there, whether it be manufactured liquids and the impact on folks trying to get solids from one part of the world to the other. I think there's a lot of good information we can get from our leadership team here. And I think the best place to start is with Greg in milk, and then we'll move into some other areas. Greg. Greg Scheer: Thanks, Gus. Yeah. And like you said, milk production down 1%. If you would've told us that milk prices would be where they're at today and we'd have declining milk, you'd say you're crazy. But you have the high cost of feed, the high cost of inputs, limited heifer supply, all those factors. And in some regions, a quota system that has really limited our milk production. Most years, we would see a long market. When we're getting into May and Memorial weekend, right around the corner into June, it's less long than we normally see at this time. You just have tightening milk market where milk is not ...

On this two-part edition of The Milk Check, the Jacoby team lets listeners in on a monthly mass balance meeting. The meeting splits neatly into two episodes, one led by Global Strategy Director Don Street and the other led by Head of Risk Management and Trading Strategy Jacob Menge. In part one, we evaluate milk production data and forecast what Q2 will look like in terms of overall milk production and class allocation. Ted disagrees with Don about supply-side expectations moving forward, and Don puts forward a modification to his predictive model. In part two, we will zoom out to talk inflation, interest rates and the macroeconomic factors impacting dairy markets. Jacob presents a bird's eye view of various commodities markets and interesting trends to note in dairy and beyond. T3: Hi everybody, and welcome to the Milk Check. This month, we recorded our monthly mass balance and charting meeting. It is a monthly meeting that we hold internally where our whole trading team gets together. We look at the milk production and cold storage reports, and we look at some of the technical charts and we share our opinions about what we think this data is telling us and what we think this data is predicting about what'll happen in the future. We had some really interesting discussions this month. I think you'll really enjoy eavesdropping into these discussions. It was a long meeting but it was a really good meeting. So, what we've decided to do this month is split it into two parts. The first part is Don leading the discussion about the mass balance. What we think is happening in Class I milk, Class II milk, Class III milk, and Class IV milk. It was a great discussion. I hope you enjoy it. Thanks for listening in. Don Street: All right. You should see the PowerPoint for Mass Balance, April 2022. At this point, not completely, but all the data for Q1 that really counts we have. We'll get more early next week with dairy products. But we have it and now we're really at the point of what will Q2 hold. And I'm going to walk you through a couple of scenarios on that, and then we'll look for your guys' input. So again, Q1s in the book, down 9/10ths of a percent on milk for the quarter. But clearly a steady progression towards trying to get to zero change year over year on milk. January was the big down, February less, March even less. We still have this reality that Q2 of last year was up 4% on average. And I think that's going to be difficult to be positive over it. It's just a question of how much negative under that will be. But nonetheless, with these improving milk numbers, my projection is getting stronger. So, a month ago I thought we'd be down 1.7% for the quarter. Now I'm at 1.4% negative. You could argue, well, it's all in the same ballpark and I would concede that point. But nonetheless, two months ago I think I was talking over that we would have a reduction of over 2%. So, when you add two months together, the second quarters not looking as dire as I once thought, but I still don't think the market's anticipating this very well. And to maybe add that, had several people tell me in Chicago this week that they thought we'd be even on milk production year over year by the end of the quarter. I just don't think that's possible. And mainly it's because of cow numbers. Now, USDA really threw a curve when they restated the February numbers last week, adding about 10,000 cows that apparently shouldn't have been taken out of the herd. But I've now taken this forward projection and trying to listen to all the voices that will not see a strong change in cow numbers, but we should be past bottom. So, I've just added or increased this herd at 5,000 head a month from March. March is a known number until it's revised. So, you can just see this as you go down on the 2022 column. It's 5,000 head more a month. And that puts Q2 down on cows at about 0.9%. So, two months ago, that was 1.3% down,

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With milk production low and showing no sign of turning anytime soon, the dairy industry is bullish about 2022.  What type of bull market are we in for? That's up for debate. Inflation and continued logistics issues have roles to play. Ted and T3 agree on the strength of Class IV milk and the shock buyers are in for next year. They disagree on most everything else, including the proper way to do math.  In the end, Ted enlists Anna as reinforcement. Ted Jr: I'm not sure what the right approach is. Sort of a rerun of what we had the other day with regard to the potential, the upside potential of the markets right now might be useful. We've got a dichotomy between hedgers and actual market demand, I think, which is useful to note. T3: I would agree with that. Ted Jr: I don't want to profess to be an expert of the hedging side of the issue, but the other side of the issue is the overall world marketplace is very strong. We have a continuing decline in milk production because of a number of factors, but primarily high feed costs worldwide. Barring some economic, call it black swan or whatever you want to call it, the market for dairy products is going to be a heck of a lot higher than it is right now. It could be a lot higher than the current world market price. I know interest rates right now are low, but we have dairymen basically getting out of the business, and when interest rates go back up, it's going to be that much harder for them to get back in. At the expense of sounding too bullish, my position right now is very bullish. If we look at the gross returns on the GDT and the world markets and the continuing decline in production in Europe, $27, $28 of gross, not net. That transflates to the dairy farmer in the $22, $23 range. Right now, the futures market is two and three and four dollars lower than that. Now, we've got a couple of cycles to go through before we get to anything, but we're in the middle of, or actually, at the end of stocking for Christmas and Super Bowl. We're supposedly going to see some sort of a decline after those markets are fully satiated. Whether we see it or not I guess remains to be seen. Months later, we have the flush right before us, and whether or not that's going to actually amount to anything, that remains to be seen, too. But we have a scenario which is extremely strong as far as the future is concerned, and even if we do have some blips in there, for the reasons that I just described, odds are we're going to look at pretty strong markets the second half of next year. A lot of things can go wrong: economic collapse, stock market collapse, a resurgence of the virus. I mean, all of those things are threats, but from my perspective I think those threats are pretty distant. Tell me about it from the standpoint of the futures market, which is considerably lower than that. T3: So, I would look at it this way, and I've been pretty consistent on this topic. I think you can make the case that we could touch $25 cwt for Class IV milk at some point next year. Now, I'm not going to say it's the second half of the year because I think markets can be anticipatory, and so they often tend to find their peak before the real problem occurs, but I do think it's possible when you're talking about butter and you're talking about nonfat dry milk, you can plausibly create a market scenario where we've got milk in the $25 cwt. At the same time, though, I struggle with math that would bring Class III milk over $20 cwt. I'm just not as bullish Class III as I am Class IV, for a number of different reasons. My approach to looking at next year is that just because the demand is in the second half of the year doesn't mean our highest prices are going to be in the second half of the year. I think that the market is already bullish. If you talk to marketers of dairy products today, almost everyone is bullish. Not the buyers, the sellers,

Slipping milk production and residual COVID-related volatility could cause something truly rare in dairy: An average Class IV price for 2021 that's higher than the average for Class III. This last happened in 2013, when the market was powered by a dramatic increase in exports. Ted and T3 explain why the financing model for massive new cheese plants is a partial contributor to the phenomenon and try to predict farmer and agency responses. T3: Let me start by throwing a couple of overall milk production numbers out, so we can establish what we think milk production is going to do in general in 2022. So the challenge with talking about milk production, especially when you're talking about it in terms of year over year right now, is we're measuring against last year. And last year was the pandemic, and everything was a mess, and I'm not sure if measuring against last year with all its volatility really helps us understand the real situation. So I went back really quickly, and I actually calculated what milk production has done so far this year relative to 2019 rather than 2020, and it was kind of interesting. In the first quarter, milk production in 2021 was up 4.3% over 2019, so a little over two percent a year of milk production growth. In the second quarter of 2021, milk production was up over 2019, 4.3%, the exact same number as the first quarter, and a little over two percent. The third quarter, which we just wrapped up a little under a month ago was only up 3.1% over 2019. Now the fourth quarter of 2020 was up 2.9% over 2019, but it's starting to look like we might go negative for the fourth quarter of this year — which means on a two year basis, we may be up less than 2.9% over a two year basis. And so when you're comparing everything against 2019, it becomes a lot more clear that we're seeing overall milk production shift into an almost negative decline, rather than measuring against the year over year noise that we've been trying to figure out when we're dealing with a pandemic year last year from 4.3% to 4.3% to 3.1%. And I'm going to guess in the fourth quarter we may end up at 2.7%, so it's clearly declining at an increasing rate. Ted Jr: I think it would be useful to discuss the dynamics of that. And referring back to Jacob's chart where he charted all the prices for agricultural commodities: corns, soybeans, sorghum, cotton, you name it. And then in the same chart, he included the milk pricing and it showed 25-30% increase in agricultural commodity prices but only a nominal increase in milk pricing. It was very stark. We have had increases in production that basically have caused us to have inventory, up to now at least in both powder and cheese. Class I sales have been less than lucrative. They've been declining on an annual basis. We've built new cheese plants. And when we build a cheese plant, we're building a multi hundred million dollar plant these days which requires that it be kept full. Cheese plants need to be balanced just the same as class I plants need to be balanced. The difference comes out in the class IV market, and class IV is butter and powder. So we look at the last month's results, then we see that there is in the last several months a decrease in production. And I think the reason for that is probably pretty simple: the costs of making milk have not warranted increasing the production for the milk. We have increased feed costs. We've got increased maintenance costs on equipment, everything, land, you name it. The cost of running a dairy have gone up. It doesn't make any difference whether you're a big dairy or a small dairy, but I would guess that the costs of running a small dairy percentage-wise are a heck of a lot greater than running a big dairy, where you've got economies of scale. This dynamic, based on what we're seeing with inflation and so on, is likely going to continue. What we'll see, I believe, will be increases in a butter and powder particularly.

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On this week's episode of Market Talk Monday, Cody and Andy discuss the lively movement in Butter and Nonfat versus the lack of movement in Class IV. How do these two correlate, and what should we look for going forward?Questions or comments? Topics you like to hear about? Contact Andy at ajf@ever.ag or Cody at cjk@ever.ag.Disclaimer: TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS ON FUTURES INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE. THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE INFORMATION AND COMMENTS CONTAINED HEREIN ARE PROVIDED BY EVER.AG AS GENERAL COMMENTARY OF MARKET CONDITIONS. THIS INFORMATION SHOULD NOT BE INTERPRETED AS TRADING ADVICE OR RECOMMENDATION WITHOUT FURTHER DISCUSSION WITH YOUR EVER.AG ADVISOR. THIS IS A MATTER OF SOLICITATION.

Cody Koster and Jon Spainhour discuss today's GDT report and its effect on the Class IV market.Questions or comments? Contact Jon at jcs@ever.ag, Cody at cjk@ever.ag, or give us a call at (312) 492-4200.Disclaimer: TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS ON FUTURES INVOLVES SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR EVERYONE. THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. PAST RESULTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE INFORMATION AND COMMENTS CONTAINED HEREIN ARE PROVIDED BY EVER.AG AS GENERAL COMMENTARY OF MARKET CONDITIONS. THIS INFORMATION SHOULD NOT BE INTERPRETED AS TRADING ADVICE OR RECOMMENDATION WITHOUT FURTHER DISCUSSION WITH YOUR EVER.AG ADVISOR. THIS IS A MATTER OF SOLICITATION.