It’s not that simple

What if a single mistake by the European Central Bank could send Europe into a recession? Ricardo Reis, one of the most awarded Portuguese economists of his generation, dismantles the myths around inflation and shows why keeping it under control is a delicate art - with inevitable costs.In this episode of It's Not That Simple, the professor of Economics at the London School of Economics, dismantles the idea that this variable can be easily controlled - especially when political decisions, public expectations, and global shocks intersect.In this conversation, Ricardo Reis reminds that the pandemic and the war in Ukraine were two major tests for monetary policy. In 2020, central banks feared deflation and lowered interest rates. In 2021, people spent more than expected - and inflation surged. When the second shock hit - the war - expectations were already unanchored. «It was this accumulated error that made 2022 inflation more persistent».The response - raising rates - worked. «Inflation fell without unemployment rising, but it would have dropped faster if there had been a recession». That's the dilemma that Reis knows well, because he is also an academic consultant to the Bank of England, the Riksbank and the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.And now? The worst is behind us, but expectations have changed. The trust  in the ECB is no longer what it once was.Beyond that, the tariffs imposed by the US on imported goods are the next test, according to the professor. «They'll generate domestic inflation and a recession», but the risk is global, as they trigger trade wars and could force Europe to retaliate. Could the result be a recession in Europe, as well?

Are we safe hovering in the unknown? Harvard researcher and former assistant director for Space Policy at the White House, Ezinne Uzo-Okoro, is the guest of this «It's not that simple» edition.In this conversation, Ezinne explains how satellites and space technology are already protecting lives on Earth - from monitoring the climate to anticipating disasters. But she also discusses the real risks we face: space junk, the increasing privatisation of space and the lack of clear global regulation.With the end of the International Space Station planned for 2030 and new commercial players entering orbit, the Space Policy advisor raises the question: are we prepared for this new space race?Exploring space is no longer science fiction - it's a matter of survival.More on the topic:Ezinne's portfolio (MIT)Mars Science Laboratory: Curiosity Rover (NASA)NASA's blog

AI: a dangerous threat or an indispensable tool for today and the future? «Artificial Intelligence is the most disruptive technology we've ever seen», claims Neil Lawrence, DeepMind Professor of Machine Learning at the University of Cambridge. However, he also believes that AI «is the continuation of a technological revolution» in how we share information via computers.Speaking in Lisbon, the guest of this edition of «It's Not That Simple» highlighted a critical issue regarding AI usage: «It is not being used in the areas people are asking us to use it: health, social care, education or security.»While optimistic about the relationship between humanity and AI, Lawrence acknowledges the difficulties in regulating such a rapidly evolving field. He warns against leaving regulation to «inflexible and under-resourced» regulators to «decide the future for us all.»More on the topic:Neil Lawrence: «The Atomic Human: What makes us unique in the age of AI» (Talks at Google)Neil Lawrence: «The Atomic Human - Understanding ourselves in the age of AI» (Finnish Centre for Artificial Intelligence)Neil Lawrence: ‘Is AI beyond our human understanding?'BBC interviewInterview with the University of CambridgeEpisode of the ‘Futures' podcastNeil Lawrence's Linkedin

There is a clear Cold War between the US and China, but it differs from the one between the US and the Soviet Union and is «far more dangerous». The warning is given by Anil Gupta, the renowned expert on globalization, emerging markets and innovation, who guarantees that China is not, in economic terms, a «pygmy» like the Soviet power was compared to the American «giant». Analysing what the specialist considers to be «the biggest geopolitical issue of our time», the expert argues that China is a «technological, industrial, economic and military power», pointing out that the relationship with the US is not really improving. In addition to the clash between superpowers, Anil Gupta says that «the growth of emerging markets» has also fuelled geopolitical tensions. While in 2000 there were 20 emerging economies, today their number has more than doubled. And the growth of these economies is expected to remain stable over the next few years, emphasizes the expert. This means that the emerging markets - China and India, but also Indonesia, Brazil and Nigeria - are becoming not only important in economic terms but also in political terms. Rated by Thinkers50 as «one of the world's most influential management thinkers», Anil Gupta recalls the risk associated with supply chains, which the pandemic has already highlighted. The case of medical equipment used in the US is paradigmatic. Over the last 20 years, most of the gloves used by US surgeons have come from China. ‘In the event of a conflict with China, ‘would the US want to be dependent on such a simple item?'. A positive aspect of globalization is technology. In this interview, Gupta considers that ‘Artificial Intelligence is the most powerful technology that mankind has ever invented'. But he reminds us of the risks associated with it in the long term. «In 50 years, will AI treat humans the way we treat ants today?». More on the topic: Official website «London Speaker Bureau» interview «Leading Authorities International» interview «The CrossroadTimes» podcast interview

Will we be able to programme the human genome like we programme computers? And will we be able to stop ageing or create medicines and vaccines in record time? Geneticist and synthetic biology pioneer Andrew Hessel explains how this field could transform medicine, making it possible not only to diagnose but also to cure diseases in a more effective and personalised way. Hessel draws parallels between programming a computer and programming a cell, highlighting how the manipulation of genetic code is opening doors to innovative treatments and advances in longevity. Today, DNA sequencing already plays a crucial role in medicine, but synthetic biology promises to go even further, offering the ability to alter microbes to improve health and slow down natural processes such as ageing. However, all these advances face ethical challenges. The manipulation of living organisms, especially in humans, raises questions about the limits and responsibilities of using this technology. Hessel warns of the risks of abusing synthetic biology for financial, political or religious reasons, but believes that the democratisation of these tools can be a positive force for humanity. More on the topicAndrew Hessel LinkedIn accountX account (Twitter)Synthetic Biology: Rewriting Life. Andrew Hessel at NextMed HealthThe Futurists: The First Technology with Andrew HesselTed Hesser podcast: Andrew Hessel Programming DNA - The Future of Synthetic BiologyAmy Webb & Andrew Hessel | The Genesis Machine | Talks at Google

The alliance that has ensured peace throughout most of Europe is now at the centre of all attention. «We are in a very dangerous era. The next 25 years will probably be the most challenging NATO has ever had», argues Peter Apps, global affairs columnist for Reuters and author of the book «Deterring Armageddon: a biography of NATO». In this interview, the expert is convinced that a new world conflict will be triggered by the ambition of countries that want to extend their borders by force of arms. «I think the world is probably organised enough so that we don't have a third world war by mistake. If we do, it will be because one or more countries have made a really big gamble on attempting to do what Putin has done in Ukraine», he emphasises. With Europe grappling with the war on Ukrainian soil - and on the verge of affecting NATO member countries - the continent will have to rethink its defence investment. And with Donald Trump in the White House, Europeans will have to be more autonomous in their military decisions. The future of the relationship between the US and Europe is still unclear. The expert points out that, on the one hand, it is not certain that the Europeans «will do enough to keep the Trump government on their side, to ensure continued US support». On the other hand, it is not known how tolerant the next US president will be if Europe tries to go its own way. Highlighting the importance of NATO membership for Nordic countries and Turkey, Apps predicts that the current tense environment could persist for 15, 20, or even 30 years, ushering in a kind of new Cold War. Peter Apps does, however, leave us with a message of hope for the future: «we are clearly in an era of conflict, but common sense will prevail». More on the topic:Peter Apps official websiteX account (Twitter)Substack for Peter Apps newsletterTed X LondonInterview about NATO on Dan Snow's podcastInterview with Sábado magazineInterview on the History Hack podcast

Colin Bryar, former vice-president of Amazon and Jeff Bezos' right-hand man, shares the secrets that have transformed Amazon into the world's leading e-commerce company. In this interview, he discusses the philosophy of putting the customer at the centre of all decisions, the importance of analysing the right data to understand and respond to consumer needs, and the steps that led to the company's continuous innovation. From changes in packaging - prompted by direct customer feedback - to the emergence of Amazon Web Services, which created the cloud computing industry. In addition, he explores how customer prioritisation and the intelligent use of data have shaped the company's success in the digital marketplace. Bryar also explains how companies can apply these lessons to grow, innovate and solve real problems. In this episode of ‘It's not that simple', discover the impact of digital transformation, the future of online commerce and the strategies that continue to position Amazon at the forefront of e-commerce and technology. More on the topic: Alcott Global interview Colin Bryar's LinkedIn Agile Education interview Q&A from the Think Like Amazon podcast Commonplace Expertise interview

It's the tightest race for the White House in 60 years. CNN data reporter Harry Enten believes that Pennsylvania will be the state most likely to decide the outcome of the November 5 elections, where Kamala Harris and Donald Trump face off. In this interview, Harry Enten goes through the details of the American elections, explaining how the country's electoral system works, which is very different from those in force in Europe. «In the United States, there are 50 state elections - as well as those in the District of Columbia - and the winner in each of these states gets the electoral college votes allocated to that state», he explains. «If Donald Trump wins Florida with 50% of the vote, against 49% for Kamala Harris, all the electoral college votes from that state would go to Trump». he explains. Analyzing the national polls, Enten points out that they don't serve to predict possible winners, but only to show how close an election can be. And this one, in particular, he describes as «crazy». This race for the White House is particularly tight: “when you look at the decisive states, in all of them, the candidates are separated by less than 3 percentage points”. And that's unprecedented since there have been reliable polls in the US. Between now and election day, the candidates will have to bet on strategies that will guarantee them the support of undecided voters, and the political scientist assures us that it is their positions on the country's economy, their rhetoric and the reinforcement of television ads that could make the difference for those who have not yet decided their vote. More on the topic:Episodes of CNN's «Margins of Error» podcastHarry Enten's official X accountInterview with Mediaite's Press Club Articles on the «Five Thirty-Eight» websiteProfile and content on CNN's website«The Forecast Fest» podcast (2020)

How does food influence mental well-being? Nutritional psychiatrist and author of the bestseller «This Is Your Brain on Food» Uma Naidoo argues that food is not only crucial for a healthy body, but also essential for a healthy mind. And the Mediterranean diet, known for its physical health benefits, can also help combat mental disorders. According to Naidoo – who leads the first and only Nutritional and Metabolic Psychiatry Service in a US hospital – many diseases, such as diabetes or hypertension, are aggravated by a poor diet, and the same applies to mental health. She points out that «people don't associate food with mental and emotional well-being», but bad moods, lack of energy or anxiety can also sometimes be explained by «the level of sugar they eat». In this episode of «It's not that simple», the author explores how a healthy, nutrient-rich diet can significantly improve cognitive abilities. She highlights the intrinsic relationship between the brain and the gut, which share a common origin in embryonic cells, explaining how what we eat directly affects mental health. She also highlights how a high-sugar diet can feed harmful microbes in the gut, promoting inflammation processes that harm the body. Uma Naidoo stresses the importance of adopting a diet that avoids ultra-processed foods and includes a wide variety of vegetables, always adapted to each case and each reality. She also reminds us that a healthy diet is far from being synonymous with tastelessness. More on the topicHarvard Nutrition Expert: «These Foods FUEL Anxiety | Dr. Uma Naidoo x Rich Roll Podcast» «Ten Percent Happier» podcast interview Food And Mood» Imperfectly Perfect podcast interviewUma Naidoo's official website Uma Naidoo's instagram X's account

American activist and author Ashton Applewhite tackles the issue of ageism in this «It's not that simple» interview. With an assertive approach, Applewhite shatters myths about ageing and combats ageism. The activist stresses that ageing is a natural and inevitable process and that we should look at it with a more positive outlook, because «people with positive feelings about ageing live longer».  The author of «This Chair Rocks» explains that ageism manifests itself acutely in the workplace, where both younger and older generations face marked prejudices.  Applewhite points out that ageism is also a gender issue, as women are judged more harshly in the workplace. From being seen as "too sexy" at the start of their careers to being considered "no longer attractive" as they age, discrimination against women is a constant. To combat this form of discrimination, Ashton Applewhite suggests a simple but powerful solution: «make an older or younger friend». For the activist. By calling for a cultural change about age, Applewhite continues her fight for a world without discrimination, challenging concepts and encouraging a new vision of ageing. More on the topic «Yo, Is This Ageist?» blog  Ashton Applewhite, «Addressing Ageism: Building a Better World for All Ages»   «We Can Do Hard Things: Pro-Aging: Why the Best is Yet to Come», with Ashton Applewhite  «Magnificent Midlife - How to end ageism», with Ashton Applewhite Presentation on ageism for the United Nations Interview with Brené Brown  Ted Talk «This Chair Rocks» official website

In a world increasingly defined by global environmental challenges and changes, the perspective of historian Peter Frankopan, author of the best-selling «The Silk Roads», is crucial to helping us understand a planet in constant change. In this interview, Frankopan discusses the consequences of climate change over time and highlights the importance of human resilience - a constant in human history - which is essential for human adaptation to current challenges. He also emphasizes the imminence of historical disasters and the international cooperation that is fundamental to effective crisis management. His vision offers an in-depth analysis of humanity's challenges and the strategies needed to face the new global reality. Peter Frankopan stresses the urgency of a collective response to problems, and calls for the need to prepare new generations for a world where populism and political crises are intensifying. The interview with the historian not only gives us a perspective about the future, but also reinforces the importance of learning from the past in order to better manage the present and plan for the future. More on this topic Channel 4 News interview Hedgeye interview Peter Frankopan's oficial website Podcast «I've Been Thinking», with Peter Frankopan Podcast «Wild with Sarah Wilson»

«The Western world faces more complex challenges today than at any time in the past», says former CIA director David Petraeus. In this «It's not that simple» interview, the american general analyzes the geopolitical context according to his 37 years in the US army and his experience in multiple wars. «We [the US, its allies and partners] are the circus performer who keeps many plates spinning on many sticks», he illustrates. According to Petraeus, the «relationship between the US, the West and China is the biggest and most important plate», since good relations must be guaranteed to avoid additional tension, mistrust and competition between these nations. But at the same time, the US and its allies also have to deal with Russia, which is «the most threatening plate». As for the future of invaded Ukraine, the author of the book Conflict: The Evolution of Warfare from 1945 to Ukraine shields himself with a «it depends»: «it depends on the continuation of US support, which is already at 61 billion dollars, the EU's contribution - which is 50 billion -, the ukrainian capacity to increase military training and it also depends on the technological progress of Ukraine and Russia», he argues. Maintaining the allegory of the circus, the general emphasizes that there are other «plates» in balance, which cannot be neglected and which must continue to «spin» without major oscillations. This is the case of North Korea's nuclear investment and the case of Iran «which has been expanding its nuclear, drone and missile program, and supporting malign Shiite and even Sunni militias, such as Hamas». Asked about the biggest challenge that humanity is facing, David Petraeus highlights the «inequality of wealth between the global North and South». He claims, however, that the conflicts in various parts of the world, the growth of extremist groups, criminal organizations, cyber threats, forced migration due to climate change, and populism would be equally valid responses. More on this topicDavid Petraeus on Israel, Ukraine, and the evolution of warfare Wisdom From The Top with Guy Raz  Firing Line with Margaret Hoover  In Conversation with Gen. David H. Petraeus Conflict: The Evolution of Warfare from 1945 to Ukraine with Gen. David H. Petraeus David Petraeus' Linkedin 

«The European Union is one of the largest and richest consumer markets. And few global companies can afford not to do business in the EU», says Anu Bradford, a specialist in global economics and digital regulation, who coined the term ‘Brussels Effect' to describe Europe's influence on global markets. In this «It's not that simple» interview, the author of The Brussels Effect: How the European Union Rules the World - considered one of the best books of 2020 by Foreign Affairs magazine - explains that despite the dispute between the US and China over influence on how various industries (including technology) operate, it's still Europe that sets the rules of this chess. Paradigmatic are the strict regulations imposed by the EU, which end up becoming the global standard, influencing companies in other countries to adopt them in order to succeed in the coveted European market. Anu Bradford argues that «global companies like uniformity» and it's in Europe that they find the standard. The expert uses the car industry as an example, pointing out that [manufacturers] don't want to have several different production lines to produce cars for each market. The «Brussels Effect» extends to multiple concerns that are the order of the day, such as issues of environmental protection or data privacy with the development of technology, including Artificial Intelligence. For the Columbia Law School professor, stricter European environmental standards and legislation protecting personal data show how Europe has responded positively to current challenges. But could this undermine Europe's competitiveness? And could it stifle the development of the technological sector? Bradford thinks not, but she also believes that the European Union still has much to learn from how other powers handle, for example, failure. With the elections to the European Parliament just around the corner, Anu Bradford talks about the problems of today and those that lie ahead. «We will see in the long term that the path europeans have set themselves consists mainly of making the right choices», she says. However, she warns that future decisions must guarantee «not only the well-being, but also the fundamental safety and security of Europeans». More on this topicInstitute of International and European Affairs interview about the book The Brussels Effect: How the European Union Rules the World Digital Empires: The Global Battle to Regulate Technology, with Anu BradfordPodcast episode: International Law Behind the HeadlinesTech Policy.Press interview Anu Bradford's X (Twitter)  Anu Bradford's LinkedIn 

«There is nothing more permanent than a temporary migrant. Don't create any illusions that a fair share of migrants in not going to stay», says sociologist Hein de Haas, in this episode of «It's Not That Simples», a podcast by the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation. One of the most enlightened but also thought provocative voices of migrations, Hein de Haas explains that this hot topic of today is neither a phenomenon nor a novelty. «Migration is part and parcel of who we are as human beings, as a society», he explains, emphasizing that migratory movements have been taking place «for as long as humanity has existed». The difference lies in Europe's position in this chessboard, having shifted from being a point of departure (in colonialism or world wars) to being a continent where citizens from all over the world arrive.  Highlighting that it is impossible to stop this movement, the sociologist warns against the hypocrisy of policies that punish migrants instead of those who accept them illegally. «In the United States, the number of employers who are prosecuted each year for employing undocumented migrants is between 10 and 15 a year, with no zeros», he claims. «If you would really be serious as a politician when you say 'I want to combat smuggling, I want to combat illegal migration'... If you really want to do that, you better punish employers», Hein de Haas explains, adding that the lack of consequences for those who employ them fuels exploitation and abuse. Breaking down the false narratives on this issue - from the left, which sees immigrants as «victims and refugees», and from the right, which speaks of the threat of those who «arrive to steal jobs» - the expert believes that these discourses hide the real problem: the fact that «in Western Europe and the US, there is the biggest labor shortage ever, especially of low-skilled migrants». For further info:  Hein de Haas's blog Interview with «Observador» How To Academy Podcast Hein de Haas' X (formerly Twitter) Selection of videos from the official website Interview with the International Migration Institute on migration in Morocco Interview with Melissa Siegel

Two dollars (about 1.85 euros) per day to cover all needs. This is the benchmark set by the World Bank to define extreme poverty, already accounting for differences in purchasing power among different countries around the globe.  Esther Duflo, awarded with the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2019 for her work on alleviating extreme poverty, provides insights on how to address inequalities. The author advocates for «practical solutions», arguing that "it is much easier to think about the effect of something than its cause" and reveals how small measures can have a significant impact.  The economist advocates a methodology based on a "plumber mentality." With this strategy, she demonstrates how important it is to experiment various solutions until arriving at one that solves the problem. In this interview, the Nobel laureate in Economics explains how small changes in access to healthcare and education have long-term implications for the lives of the poorest. Using the example of deworming children in Kenya, she demonstrates how this measure has led to health improvements but also contributed to a reduction in school absenteeism, providing students with better learning outcomes.  Throughout the conversation, Esther Duflo also emphasizes the contribution of immigration to the economies of countries, explaining that the workforce and youth of immigrants contribute to the development of nations rather than impoverishing them. In the fight against poverty, climate change is fueling new inequalities: the wealthiest countries are the major polluters, but it is the poorest who are suffering the most intense consequences of the climate crisis. Duflo thus calls for a global approach to this problem. For further info:  Nobel Prize;  Prize Lecture: Esther Duflo, Prize in Economic Sciences 2019;  HEC TALKS with Esther Duflo: Good Economics for Warmer Times;  Ted Talk “Experimentos sociais para combater a pobreza”; MIT Esther Duflo, Randomized Controlled Trials and Policy Making in Developing Countries;  A Podcast of One's Own with Julia Gillard - Nobel Prize winner Esther Duflo on economics as a lever of action for the world; Ted Talk "Taken for Granted: Esther Duflo wants you to think like a plumber";  The Guardian article;  El Pais Brasil interview

What's it like to be a teenager these nowadays? What challenges do they face? How can adults contribute to their well-being? To answer these questions, Pedro Pinto interviews Lisa Damour in this episode of “It's Not That Simple”, a podcast by the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation. A clinical psychologist, Damour is the author of three New York Times best sellers: Untangled, Under Pressure, and The Emotional Lives of Teenagers. She co-hosts the Ask Lisa podcast, works in collaboration with UNICEF, and is recognized as a thought leader by the American Psychological Association. Damour is also a regular contributor to The New York Times and CBS News. She serves as a Senior Advisor to the Schubert Center for Child Studies at Case Western Reserve University and has written numerous academic papers, chapters, and books related to education and child development. She maintains a clinical practice and speaks to schools, professional organizations, and corporate groups around the world on the topics of child and adolescent development, family mental health, and adult well-being. Damour graduated with honors from Yale University and worked for the Yale Child Study Center before earning her doctorate in Clinical Psychology at the University of Michigan. She has been a fellow at Yale's Edward Zigler Center in Child Development and Social Policy and the University of Michigan's Power Foundation. She and her husband are the proud parents of two daughters.  In this episode, Damour explains why it is harder to be a teenager now than it was decades ago. She also explores how social media and the digital world affect teenagers and their well-being, while considering the differences between boys and girls in the way they engage with the digital environment. Damour then advises parents to “go slow” on giving their kids access to digital technology and social media. Furthermore, she discusses the role and impact of “caring adults” on a teenager's mental health. Finally, she warns parents about what kinds of behavior should make them worry about their teenage kids, in a conversation well worth listening to. More on this topic Untangled: Guiding teenage girls through the seven transitions into adulthood, Lisa Damour, 2016; Under Pressure: Confronting the epidemic of stress and anxiety in girls, Lisa Damour, 2019; The Emotional Lives of Teenagers: Raising Connected, Capable, and Compassionate Adolescents, Lisa Damour, 2023; Ask Lisa, Damour's podcast Lisa Damour on “What's Going On With Teenagers?”; Lisa Damour on “The Emotional (and Sometimes Chaotic) Life of Teenagers”; Lisa Damour on the “3 Steps of Anxiety Overload – and How You Can Take Back Control” Lisa Damour on teen mental health “The teenage brain”, a conference held by the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation Other references in Portuguese:   Podcast Da Capa à Contracapa “Os Adolescentes, as suas vidas, o seu futuro”, with Margarida Gaspar de Matos and Daniel Sampaio Podcast Aqui Entre Nós, “Como crescem os portugueses” with André Rodrigues and Maria do Céu Machado Podcast [IN]Pertinente “E se procurássemos compreender a adolescência?”, with Ana Markl and Rui Costa Lopes •Essay of the Foundation “Adolescentes”, by Maria do Céu Machado Essay of the Foundation “Adolescentes: As suas Vidas, o seu Futuro”, by Margarida Gaspar de Matos

How important is the European Union? What is its role in today's world? Is it still too distant from European citizens? How can it better reach out to young people? To answer these questions, José Maria Pimentel interviews the President of the European Parliament Roberta Metsola, in this episode of “It's Not That Simple”, a podcast by the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation. As President of the European Parliament (EP), Roberta Metsola is also the Head of the Partit Nazzjonalista (PN) Delegation, one of the political forces within the European People's Party Group in the European Parliament.  A lawyer by profession, specializing in European law and politics, Roberta graduated in 2003, the same year that her country Malta, decided to join the European Union. She was first elected as an MEP for Malta and Gozo in 2013, being re-elected in 2014 and 2019 and becoming in this way, one of the first Maltese women elected to the EP. In 2020, Metsola was elected as the First Vice-President of the European Parliament, during this time, she was responsible for the EP's relations with national parliaments and for the Parliament's participation in the interreligious and non-confessional dialogue. On 18th January 2022 Roberta Metsola was elected President of the European Parliament, becoming the youngest ever person to occupy this role. In this episode, Metsola discusses her efforts to talk with young people in every country she visits, to persuade them to engage with politics and the European Union (EU). She addresses the perception that “Brussels is too far away” and what can be done to change that. Metsola also explains how much Malta becoming a member of the EU changed her country for the better. She then talks about her term as President of the EP and the many crises the EU has had to face during that time. Finally, Metsola considers the specific role of the EP within the EU's institutional framework, and its impact on people's lives, in a conversation well worth listening to. More on this topic Roberta Metsola's State of Europe Speech - 9th November 2023 Roberta Metsola debating the “Future of Europe” with Paulo Rangel and Guy Verhofstadt Roberta Metsola's speech at the World Leaders Forum at Columbia University - 18th September 2023 Other references in Portuguese Essay of the Foundation “O Futuro da União Europeia”, by Eugénia da Conceição Essay of the Foundation “Eleições na União Europeia”, by Nuno Sampaio “Não se abstenha: três razões e mais uma para votar nas eleições europeias”, an essay by Nuno Sampaio Essay of the Foundation “A Democracia na Europa”, by Catherine Moury “Portugal nas decisões europeias”, a study coordinated by Alexander Trechsel and Richard Rose for the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation “Os futuros da Europa”, an essay by Teresa de Sousa “Afinal que Europa é que queremos?”, a debate held by the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation, with Carlos Moedas, Elisa Ferreira, Eugénia da Conceição and Lívia Franco

What does the world look like today? What can explain the many wars currently taking place around the globe? Will conflicts like the one in the Middle East between Israel and the Palestinians ever end? How dangerous is the Russian war against Ukraine? To answer these questions, Pedro Pinto interviews Simon Sebag Montefiore in this episode of “It's Not That Simple”, a podcast by the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation.  In this episode, Montefiore discusses his latest book The World: A Family History of Humanity, a world history written with the grit of a biography, which uses family, the one thing all humans have in common, to tell the story of humanity, and examines how the current “world disorder” is just the end of “what we thought was the way the world normally worked”, describing this “new disorder” as a “multiplayer computer game” in which an array of continental powers and aspiring superpowers are challenging the United States.    Montefiore also addresses Hamas's attack on Israel on October 7th and the war in Gaza, stating that the only way out is a "two-state solution", each with new leaderships.  The bestselling author of history and novels, awarded several prizes for his previous books, including Jerusalem: The Biography, Stalin: The Court of the Red Tsar and The Romanovs, then expresses his concerns about the danger of nuclear proliferation, before considering the Russian invasion Ukraine and why the West must help the latter in fighting of the former. Finally, Montefiore delves into what might happen if Donald Trump is once again elected President of the United States in the 2024 election, in a conversation well worth listening to.   More on this topic Montefiore's essay in The Atlantic on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict Montefiore's interview on CNN Portugal Montefiore discussing his book The World: A Family History of Humanity at The Temple Emanu-El Streicker Center in New York An interview with Montefiore on The World: A Family History of Humanity Montefiore on “The Power of Family Dynasties” An interview with Montefiore about his book Jerusalem: The Biography Catherine the Great and Potemkin, Simon Sebag Montefiore, 2001 Stalin: The Court of the Red Tsar, Simon Sebag Montefiore, 2003 Young Stalin, Simon Sebag Montefiore, 2007 Monsters: History's Most Evil Men and Women, Simon Sebag Montefiore, 2008 Jerusalem: The Biography, Simon Sebag Montefiore, 2011 Titans of History, Simon Sebag Montefiore, 2012 The Romanovs 1613–1918, Simon Sebag Montefiore, 2016 The World: A Family History of Humanity, Simon Sebag Montefiore, 2022

What are “Blue Zones”? Where in the world do people live better and healthier lives? What makes them live longer and healthier? To answer these questions, Pedro Pinto interviews Dan Buettner in this episode of “It's Not That Simple”, a podcast by the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation. The author of five books on longevity and happiness, Buettner discovered the five places in the world—dubbed Blue Zones—where people lived the longest, healthiest lives and shared this information with the world. His books were all national bestsellers. Together with his writing, Buettner works in partnership with municipal governments, large employers, and health insurance companies to implement Blue Zones Projects in communities, workplaces, and universities. He is also a three-time Guinness World Record distance cycling holder. In this episode, Buettner explains what he means by “Blue Zones”: the five areas of the world where people live the longest, healthiest lives. He considers how our environment (the food we eat, our social habits, our incentives) affects our quality of life. Buettner then explores how factors like family or a sense of purpose can contribute to a longer life expectancy, and highlights how a “peasant diet” is an essential element of the “Blue Zone” life. Buettner also discusses what people in countries like the United States are doing wrong that makes them live shorter and less healthy lives than people in the “Blue Zones”. He also talks about his work with city governments in the United States to develop and implement policies to nudge people to adopt better habits and improve their well-being. Finally, he addresses the potential negative consequences of a longer life, in a conversation well worth listening to.More on this topic The Blue Zone: Lessons for Living Longer From the People Who've Lived the Longest, Dan Buettner, 2008 Thrive. Finding Happiness the Blue Zones Way, Dan Buettner, 2010 The Blue Zones, Second Edition: 9 Lessons for Living Longer From the People Who've Lived the Longest, Dan Buettner, 2012 The Blue Zones Solution: Eating and Living Like the World's Healthiest People, Dan Buettner, 2015 The Blue Zones Kitchen: 100 Recipes to Live to 100, Dan Buettner, 2019 The Blue Zones Challenge: A 4-Week Plan for a Longer Better Life, Dan Buettner, 2021  Live to 100: Secrets of the Blue Zones, the Netlifx series about the “Blue Zones” Dan Buettner on Learning from the World's Happiest People Dan Buettner on Who are the Happiest People on Earth Dan Buettner on The Blue Zones of Happiness” Podcast It's Not That Simple The challenge of longevity, with Andrew J. Scott

What is scientific knowledge? How can it be relayed to the general public in our era of social media and fake information? What is the role of science in our society? To answer these questions, Pedro Pinto interviews Brian Cox in this episode of “It's Not That Simple”, a podcast by the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation. A renowned experimental physicist, Brian Cox is the Professor of Particle Physics at Manchester University, The Royal Society Professor for Public Engagement in Science, and a key part of the ATLAS experiment at the CERN Large Hadron Collider.  He is also the presenter of the blockbuster TV shows Wonders of the Universe, The Planets, Wonders of Life, and Forces of Nature, each looking at the fundamental science behind everything from stars and planets to atoms and microbiology. Cox has also presented Stargazing, Space Hoppers, The Big Bang, and numerous editions of Horizon. His books accompanying the Wonders of... series have become huge bestsellers, as did his co-authored titles Why Does E=mc2? and The Quantum Universe. Cox also co-hosts Radio 4's comedy and science show Infinite Monkey Cage, and tours with a solo lecture show, Universal: Adventures in Space and Time. In this episode, Cox explores the difference between reliable knowledge and opinion, as well as the challenges social media and its “noise” pose to scientists in communicating their findings to the general public. He discusses the issue of climate change and how astronomy shows us how both insignificant and special we are as a species. Cox also addresses the possibility of colonizing a “Planet B”, before explaining how remote the possibility of an Artificial Intelligence becoming sentient is. On the other, he warns of the very serious risks associated with letting AI making decisions for us. Cox also explains what black holes are and why he's so fascinated by them. Finally, he considers the likelihood of extraterrestrial life, in a conversation well worth listening to. More on this topic • Why Does E=mc²? (And Why Should We Care?), Brian Cox and Jeff Forshaw, 2009 • Wonders of the Solar System, Brian Cox and Andrew Cohen, 2010 • Wonders of the Universe, Brian Cox and Andrew Cohen, 2011 • The Quantum Universe (And Why Anything That Can Happen, Does), Brian Cox and Jeff Forshaw 2011 • Wonders of Life: Exploring the Most Extraordinary Phenomenon in the Universe, Brian Cox and Andrew Cohen, 2013 • Human Universe, Brian Cox and Andrew Cohen, 2014 • Forces of Nature, Brian Cox and Andrew Cohen, 2016 • Universal: A Guide to the Cosmos, Brian Cox and Jeff Forshaw, 2016 • Black Holes: The Key to Understanding the Universe, Brian Cox and Jeff Forshaw, 2022 • A conversation with Brian Cox • Brian Cox on how Physics can explain Life • Brian Cox On The Multiverse And Life On Other Planets • Brian Cox on “Our Place in the Universe” • Brian Cox on “The Wonders of the Solar System” •Brian Cox on Artificial Intelligence • Podcast It's Not That Simple “Cosmos”, with Vitor Cardoso • A conversation about the Cosmos between Vítor Cardoso and fellow astrophysicists Michio Kaku and Carlo Rovelli • Vítor Cardoso on black holes • Vítor Cardoso on “black holes as engines of discovery”

What do we mean by “innovation”? Why do we need it? How can companies and societies encourage it? To answer these questions, Pedro Pinto interviews Niron Hashai in this episode of “It's Not That Simple”, a podcast by the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation. An expert on innovation and entrepreneurship, Hashai is a Full Professor at the Arison School of Business, The Interdisciplinary Center, Herzliya, Israel. He currently serves as the school's Dean. Hashai obtained his BSc in Computer Science from the Technion and his MBA and PhD from Tel Aviv University. His research was published in top strategy, management, international business, and innovation journals, including Journal of International Business Studies, Journal of Management, Research Policy, Strategic Management Journal and Strategy Science, and he on the boards of the Strategic Management Journal, Journal of International Business Studies, and the Global Strategy Journal, among others. Before joining the Interdisciplinary Center, Hashai was a tenured faculty member at the School of Business Administration of the Hebrew University, where he also served as Vice Dean, Head of the Asper Center for Entrepreneurship, Head of the Strategy and Entrepreneurship area, the Academic Director of the EMBA program and held the Albertson-Waltuch Chair in Business Administration. Hashai is also a visiting Professor at the University of Manchester and an associate member at the John H. Dunning Research Centre, University of Reading. He has also held visiting positions at the Stern School of Business, New York University, the Blavatnik School of Government, the University of Oxford and Leeds University Business School. Hashai is co-founder and advisory board member of the Israel Strategy Conference (ISC). In this episode, Hashai explains how innovation is born of an openness to “disobey your superiors”, while also being able to collaborate with your coworkers. He stresses the importance of risk-taking and of one's willingness to fail to innovate, while “not failing too much”. Hashai also describes what a “culture of innovation” looks like: he gives some examples of companies that innovated and thereby improved their businesses, before examining the kind of corporate structure that can foster that kind of innovation. Later in this episode, he also discusses the dangers of “innovation for innovation's sake” Finally, he considers the potential benefits and dangers of Artificial Intelligence, in a conversation well worth listening to. More on this topic The Future of Foreign Direct Investment and the Multinational Enterprise, Niron Hashai (with Ravi Ramamurti, eds.) 2011 FDI, International Trade and the Economics of Peacemaking, Niron Hashai (with Tamar Almor, eds.), 2000 Niron Hashai's study on “Within-industry diversification and firm performance” Niron Hashai's study on “Sequencing the Expansion of Geographic Scope and Foreign Operations by 'Born Global' Firms” Niron Hashai's study on “How Outsourcing Affects Technological Knowledge Exploration Niron Hashai's study (with Sarit Markovich) on “The Effect of Competition Level and Startup Innovativeness”

What do we mean by “human capital”? What is the relationship between democracy, human rights and economic prosperity? Are poor people doomed to remain poor? To answer these questions, Pedro Pinto interviews James Heckman in this episode of “It's Not That Simple”, a podcast by the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation. A Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences laureate in 2000, Heckman is the Henry Schultz Distinguished Service Professor in Economics at the University of Chicago. His research has focused on such subjects as inequality, social mobility and economic opportunity; labor economics; lifecycle dynamics of skill formation; microeconometrics; and causal models rooted in economic theory. He is also the Director of the Center for the Economics of Human Development and the Co-Director of the Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Global Working Group. In 1983, he won the John Bates Clark Medal. Heckman has also been a fellow of the John Simon Guggenheim Memorial Foundation since 1978, a Member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, a Fellow of The Econometric Society (since 1980), and a member of the National Academy of Sciences. In this episode, Heckman explains the “set of capacities” that make up human capital and “allow us to function well in the world”. He examines how the promotion of human and civil rights in the United States in 1964 had a positive impact on the country's economy. Heckman also examines how China's economic success is a result not so much of its political authoritarianism, but of a much greater access of women to education and their subsequent wider and more qualified participation in the workforce. He then contrasts China with India, which might be hindering its development by putting some minorities in disadvantage. Later in the episode, Heckman addresses the impact of inequality in skill acquisition, and how poor people are often trapped in a vicious cycle of poverty. On the other hand, he disputes the idea that inequality is on the rise in the United States. Finally, Heckman discusses the unintended negative outcomes of well-meaning policies like the minimum wage or rent controls, in a conversation well worth listening to.More on this topic Giving Kids a Fair Chance, James Heckman, 2013 James Heckman's study “Inequality in America: What role for human capital policies?” James Heckman's Nobel Prize Lecture An interview with James Heckman on the “Emerging Economic Arguments for Investing in the Health of Our Children's Learning”  An interview with James Heckman on his “controversial approach to solving inequality” Podcast It's Not That Simple “Moving up in life”, with John Friedman An interview with Mariana Mazzucato about “the future of capitalism” An interview with Robert Reich on how to solve the problem of inequality

What is Blockchain? What is it for? How does it work? What kind of impact can it have on our societies? To answer these questions, Pedro Pinto interviews Don Tapscott in this episode of “It's Not That Simple”, a podcast by the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation. One of the world's leading authorities on the impact of technology on business and society, Tapscott is currently Co-Founder & Executive Chairman of the Blockchain Research Institute. He is also an Adjunct Professor at INSEAD, and Chancellor Emeritus of Trent University in Ontario where he served as Chancellor 2013-2019. Tapscott is a member of the Order of Canada, and has authored 16 books, including the global best seller Blockchain Revolution: How the Technology Behind Bitcoin and Other Cryptocurrencies is Changing the World, co-authored with his son Alex. He has coined many concepts that are part of the business lexicon today and is sought by corporate and government leaders globally. In this episode, Tapscott describes what he calls the “second era of the digital age”, and the Blockchain's role in it. He also discusses the potential of a Web 3.0, in which we can own and monetize our own data. Tapscott looks at the current stage of evolution of artificial intelligence as a form of generative AI, and the impact of the internet and modern technology on our societies. He also explains the importance of privacy in the digital realm, and examines the potential “dark side” of all these new technologies. Finally, Tapscott advocates for the need for a “social contract” for the digital age, in a conversation well worth listening to. More on this topic  Supply Chain Revolution: How Blockchain Technology Is Transforming the Digital Flow of Assets, Don Tapscott, 2020 Blockchain Revolution: How the Technology Behind Bitcoin and Other Cryptocurrencies is Changing the World, Don Tapscott (with Alex Tapscott), 2016 The Digital Economy Anniversary Edition: Rethinking Promise and Peril In the Age of Networked Intelligence, Don Tapscott, 2014 Don Tapscott's Ted Talks Don Tapscott's op-ed pieces for The Globe and Mail Don Tapscott's op-ed pieces for The Star Don Tapscott's op-ed pieces for The Huffington Post Other references in Portuguese Essay of the Foundation “Inteligência Artificial”, by Arlindo Oliveira “Inteligência artificial: moda passageira ou o futuro da Humanidade”, an essay by Arlindo Oliveira “Uma nova era”, an essay on ChatGPT by Arlindo Oliveira Podcast Da Capa à Contracapa “O que é a Inteligência Artificial” with Arlindo Oliveira and Paulo Gomes Podcast Da Capa à Contracapa “Inteligência artificial, como vai mudar a nossa vida?”, with Daniela Braga and João Castro “Inteligência artificial em Portugal: Chegámos ao futuro?”, a debate hosted by the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation Podcast [IN]Pertinente “O meu trabalho vai ser substituído por uma máquina?”, with Cátia Batista and Hugo van der Ding “Desafios de Segurança no Mundo Digital”, an essay by Pedro Veiga

What is “vetting”? How does it work? Why is it so important to the quality of public service and government? To answer these questions, Pedro Pinto interviews Alyssa Mastromonaco in this episode of “It's Not That Simple”, a podcast by the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation. With many years of experience working in the United States' government, Mastromonaco served as White House Deputy Chief of Staff for operations in the administration of President Barack Obama from 2011 to 2014, the youngest woman to hold that position. Prior to that, she was Director of Scheduling and Advance, a position she also held during President Obama's first campaign. Mastromonaco began working with then Senator Obama in January 2005 where she served as an advisor and political director of his PAC, Hopefund. She had previously worked for Senator John Kerry in both the Senate and his 2004 campaign and also served as Congressman Rick Boucher's (VA-09) press secretary. After leaving the White House, she was President of Global Communications Strategy & Talent at A&E Networks and the chief operating officer of Vice Media. She has also been a contributing editor at Marie Claire magazine. Since 2017, Mastromonaco has been a podcaster with Crooked Media.  In this episode, Mastromonaco describes what the vetting process consists of, specifically in the United States. She discusses the purpose of the vetting process, as well as it standards. Mastromonaco also looks at how political polarization and the modern media environment have weakened the public strength of the vetting process. She also addresses the challenges of conducting an efficient vetting investigation. Mastromonaco examines the lack of vetting in countries like Portugal and how a thorough vetting process can lead to finding the best people for any given public position. Finally, she explains how lying about one's past may be more disqualifying for the person being vetted than telling the truth about the person is being asked about, in a conversation well worth listening to. More on this topic  Who Thought This Was a Good Idea? And Other Questions You Should Have Answers to When You Work in the White House, Alyssa Mastromonaco (with Lauren Oyler), 2017 So Here's the Thing: Notes on Growing Up, Getting Older and Not Giving a Shit, Alyssa Mastromonaco (with Lauren Oyler), 2019 Hysteria, Alyssa Mastromonaco's podcast  Alyssa Mastromonaco on her book “Who Thought This Was a Good Idea?” Alyssa Mastromonaco on her experience in government Another conversation with Alyssa Mastromonaco about her work in government Podcast It's Not That Simple, “Corruption”, with Donatella della Porta Other references in Portuguese: Podcast Da Capa à Contracapa “A Corrupção”  Essay of the Foundation “Corrupção”, by Luís de Sousa, 2011 “Eleger mais mulheres só reduz a corrupção no curto-prazo”, an interview with political scientist Miguel Maria Pereira Debate "Os grupos de interesse no sistema político português”

For the first-time live in Portugal, the historian and writer Yuval Noah Harari, author of «Sapiens» and «Homo Deus», reflects on the advances of humanity, its major threats, and the way in which artificial intelligence must be regulated to prevent it from becoming a «T-Rex» that will destroy humanity as we know it.  In this interview, with the journalist Pedro Pinto, Harari addresses issues such as the preservation of liberal democracy, the confrontation with artificial intelligence, the balance between human humility and the definition of the future of life on Earth, in addition to the possibilities of conflict and peace between the West and China.  A talk recorded 'live on tape' at Estufa Fria, in Lisbon, Portugal on May 2023.

Is democracy dying? What challenges do democracies around the world face nowadays? How can they overcome such challenges? To answer these questions, Pedro Pinto interviews Daniel Ziblatt in this episode of “It's Not That Simple”, a podcast by the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation. An expert on democracy, Ziblatt is Eaton Professor of Government at Harvard University and is director of the Transformations of Democracy research unit at the WZB Berlin Social Science Center in Berlin, Germany. His three books include How_Democracies_Die (Crown, 2018), co-authored with Steve Levitsky), a New York Times best-seller, translated into twenty-two languages. He is also the author of Conservative Parties and the Birth of Democracy (Cambridge University Press, 2017), an account of Europe's historical democratization, which won the American Political Science Association's 2018 Woodrow Wilson Prize for the best book in government and international relations and American Sociological Association's 2018 Barrington Moore Prize. In recent years he has been a fellow or visiting professor at the European University Institute (Florence, Italy), Center for Advanced Study (Stanford), Max Planck Institute (Cologne), University of Munich, and the Ecole Normale Superieure (Paris). In this episode, Ziblatt identifies the warning signs of when a democracy is being threatened, not by a coup, but by authoritarian politicians “chipping away” at its foundations from within. He also gives examples of countries where democracy is in good health. Ziblatt then looks at the impact of the Russian war against Ukraine in the world's democracies and what the future might hold. He addresses the failed attempts – in the US and in Brazil – to overturn the result of their presidential elections, and what they say about the future of democracy there and around the world. Finally, Ziblatt turns to Portugal and the rise of its populist far-right, discussing how mainstream parties in Western democracies can deal with that threat, in a conversation well worth listening to. More on this topic:   • How Democracies Die, Daniel Ziblatt (with Steven Levitsky), 2018 • Conservative Parties and the Birth of Democracy, Daniel Ziblatt, 2017 • Daniel Ziblatt on "The Causes of Populism and the Problem of Cultural Majority Rights" • Daniel Ziblatt (with Alper Yagci and Muharrem Aytug Sasmaz) on “"How Voters Respond to Presidential Assaults on Checks and Balances: Evidence from a Survey Experiment in Turkey" • Daniel Ziblatt (with Rachel Riedl, Dan Slater, and Joseph Wong) on "Authoritarian-Led Democratization" • A piece about the book “How Democracies Die” • An interview with Daniel Ziblatt about the state of American democracy • Podcast It's Not That Simple, “Political Polarization”, with Ezra Klein • Podcast It's Not That Simple, “Elections”, with Nate Silver • Podcast It's Not That Simple, “(I)liberal Democracy”, with Catherine de Vries • An interview with historian Timothy Snyder about democracy Other references in Portuguese:   • Podcast [IN] Pertinente “Estará ameaçada a democracia?” with Pedro Vieira and Raquel Vaz Pinto • Essay of the Foundation “A Qualidade da Democracia em Portugal”, by Conceição Pequito Teixeira, 2018 • “Instituições e qualidade da democracia: cultura política na Europa do Sul”, a study by the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation, coordinated by Tiago Fernandes

What is happiness? Can it be studied? Are there steps we can all take in order to become happy? To answer these questions, Pedro Pinto interviews Laurie Santos in this episode of “It's Not That Simple”, a podcast by the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation. An expert on the science of happiness, Santos is the Chandrika and Ranjan Tandon Professor of Psychology and Head of Silliman College at Yale University. In addition to her work on the evolutionary origins of human cognition, Laurie is an expert on the ways in which our minds lie to us about what makes us happy. Her Yale course, Psychology and the Good Life, teaches students how the science of psychology can provide important hints about how to make wiser choices and live a life that's happier and more fulfilling. The class became Yale's most popular course in over 300 years, with almost one out of four students enrolled. Her course has been featured in the New York Times, NBC Nightly News, The Today Show, GQ Magazine, Slate and O! Magazine. The online version of the class—The Science of Well-Being on Coursera.org—has attracted more than 4 million learners from around the world. A winner of numerous awards both for her science and teaching, she was recently voted as one of Popular Science Magazine's “Brilliant 10” young minds, and was named in Time Magazine as a “Leading Campus Celebrity.” Her podcast, The Happiness Lab, is a top-3 Apple podcast which has attracted 85+ million downloads since its launch. In this episode, Santos talks about her Yale course on Psychology and the Good Life and why it has become so popular. Santos also explains what the research on happiness tells us about what people who report being happy have done to get there. Santos then discusses how often the things we tend to think will make us happy end up not making us happy at all. She also looks at the impact of the Covid epidemic and technology on our age's mental health crisis and points out the value of social connection – and fun – for our happiness. Finally, Santos explains how important “negative” emotions like sadness, anger or frustration are for our ability to be happy, in a conversation well worth listening to. More on this topic • The online version of Santos' Yale course • The Happiness Lab with Dr. Laurie Santos, her podcast • A series of interviews with Laurie Santos • A New York Times story on Santos' Yale course Other references in Portuguese • Podcast [IN] Pertinente “O que é a felicidade” with Ana Markl and Rui Costa Lopes • Podcast [IN] Pertinente “Felicidade liga com Economia?” with Hugo van der Ding and Joana Pais • Podcast [IN] Pertinente “Somos iguais aos de antes?” with Ana Markl and Miguel Chaves • “Felicidade e bem-estar: a importância dos outros”, na interview with neuroscientist Julianne Holt-Lunstad

What will the economy of the future look like? How can we prepare for it? What impact is technology having on work and the job market? Are we heading towards a world without work? To answer these questions, Pedro Pinto interviews Daniel Susskind in this episode of “It's Not That Simple”, a podcast by the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation. An expert on the impact of technology, particularly artificial intelligence, on work and society, Daniel Susskind is a Research Professor of Economics at King's College London, and a Senior Research Associate at the Institute for Ethics in AI at Oxford University. He is the the author of the book A World Without Work, described by The New York Times as "required reading for any potential presidential candidate thinking about the economy of the future”, co-author of the best-selling book, The Future of the Professions. His TED Talk, on the future of work, has been viewed more than 1.6 million times. Previously, Susskind worked in the British Government – as a policy adviser in the Prime Minister's Strategy Unit, as a policy analyst in the Policy Unit in 10 Downing Street, and as a senior policy adviser in the Cabinet Office. He was a Kennedy Scholar at Harvard University. In this episode, Susskind discusses how the Covid-19 pandemic accelerated the role of technology in the various kinds of work we do. He looks at how technological progress will impact the lives of people who depend on paid work for their income, and considers how many people could be displaced or left behind by the economy of the future. He also examines how a world with less work available to a larger number of people will affect them emotionally and not just financially. Finally, Susskind discusses what kinds of jobs and careers will be open to future generations, and what skills and capabilities they will require of them, in a conversation well worth listening to. More on this topic The Future of the Professions: How Technology Will Transform the Work of Human Experts, Daniel Susskind and Richard Susskind, 2015 A World Without Work: Technology, Automation, and How We Should Respond, Daniel Susskind, 2020 Daniel Susskind on “A World Without Work” Daniel Susskind on “3 myths about the future of work (and why they're not true)” Daniel Susskind on “the impact of coronavirus on the global workforce and how technology has transformed the future of work” Daniel Susskind on “technology, automation and how we should respond” Daniel Susskind on the future of the workplace Daniel Susskind on how “Robots probably won't take our jobs—for now”

What is political polarization? Has social media contributed to its growth? What about Donald Trump? And where does this growing polarization leave “the center” of the political spectrum? To answer these questions, Pedro Pinto interviews Ezra Klein in this episode of “It's Not That Simple”, a podcast by the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation. A perceptive observer of American politics and society, Ezra Klein is a columnist on the New York Times opinion page, host of the award-winning “Ezra Klein Show” podcast, and author of the bestselling book, “Why We're Polarized.” Before that, he was the founder, editor-in-chief, and then editor-at-large of Vox, the explanatory news platform, which has won a bevy of awards and now reaches more than 50 million people each month. He was also a creator and executive producer of its hit Netflix show, “Explained.” Prior to starting Vox, Klein founded and led The Washington Post's Wonkblog. He is also a columnist for Bloomberg News and a regular contributor/policy analyst for MSNBC. The Economist named him one of the “Minds of the Moment.” In 2011, TIME named his blog one of the 25 best financial blogs and the Society of American Business Editors and Writers named Klein as their 2011 Opinion Columnist of the Year. In 2012, GQ named him to their 50 Most Powerful People in Washington list and Esquire named him to their 79 Things We Can All Agree On list saying, “Ezra Klein gives economics columnists a good name.” In this episode, Klein comments on the growing political polarization in the United States of America, what explains it and its impact on the country. He argues that a more fragmented media landscape has contributed to the disappearance of a common ground for what people believe to be true. He also looks at how social media has turned what was an already polarized political landscape into a more extreme, radicalized one. Klein also tries to understand why political figures like Trump, Modri or Silvio Berlusconi have had success all around the world. Finally, Klein examines how the erosion of the political “center” is both a product and a cause of growing political polarization, in a conversation well worth listening to. More on this topic • Why We're Polarized, Ezra Klein, 2020 • Ezra Klein's columns in The New York Times • The Ezra Klein Show archive • Ezra Klein on “Why We're Polarized” •Ezra Klein on “roots of America's democracy problem” • Ezra Klein on “American media's effect on democracy” • Ezra Klein talks with Pippa Norris about the reasons why “the far right is thriving around the globe” • Ezra Klein talks with Sean Illing about “how TV, Twitter and TikTok shape our brains — and our politics” • Ezra Klein talks with Patrick Deneen about the “post-liberal right”

How long can human beings live? Will it become increasingly normal for one to live up to 100 years? What impact will aging have in our societies? To answer these questions, Pedro Pinto interviews Andrew J. Scott in this episode of “It's Not That Simple”, a podcast by the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation. An expert on longevity and aging society, Andrew J. Scott is Professor of Economics at London Business School, having previously held positions at Oxford University, the London School of Economics and Harvard University. He was Managing Editor for the Royal Economic Society's Economic Journal and Non-Executive Director for the UK's Financial Services Authority (2009-2013). He is currently on the advisory board of the UK's Office for Budget Responsibility, the Cabinet Office Honours Committee (Science and Technology), co-founder of The Longevity Forum, a member of the WEF council on Healthy Ageing and Longevity and a consulting scholar at Stanford University's Center on Longevity. Scott is also the recipient of an ESRC grant for researching the economic longevity dividend. In this episode, Scott discusses how we have been able to increase our life expectancy so much in the last few decades. He considers how living longer is “a good thing”, but also the challenges it nevertheless poses. He addresses how governments and companies can deal with some of these challenges. Finally, Scott examines how in order to change the way people age and improve their quality of life at an older age, we must change and improve the way we live when they're younger, in a conversation well worth listening to. More on this topic • The 100-Year Life: Living and Working in an Age of Longevity, Andrew J. Scott and Linda Gratton, 2016 • The New Long Life: A Framework for Flourishing in a Changing World, Andrew J. Scott and Linda Gratton, 2016 • Andrew J. Scott on living a 100 year life • Andrew J. Scott on “The Economics of a Longevity Dividend” • Andrew J. Scott on how to prepare for a longer life • Andrew J. Scott's blog Other references in Portuguese • Essay of the Foundation “O Envelhecimento da Sociedade Portuguesa” by Maria João Valente Rosa • Essay of the Foundation “Envelhecimento e políticas de saúde”, by Teresa Rodrigues • “Dinâmicas demográficas e envelhecimento”, a study by Mário Leston Bandeira for the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation • “Processos de Envelhecimento em Portugal”, a study by Manuel Villaverde Cabral for the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation • “Envelhecimento Activo em Portugal”, a study by Manuel Villaverde Cabral and Pedro Moura Ferreira for the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation • “Genética, stress crónico e envelhecimento”, a conference held by the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation

What makes people migrate? How does climate change drive mass migration in today's world? How serious is this problem? How serious will it become in the future? To answer these questions, Pedro Pinto interviews Abrahm Lustgarten in this episode of “It's Not That Simple”, a podcast by the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation.An author and investigative reporter, Abrahm Lustgarten's work for ProPublica and The New York Times Magazine has been focused on climate change and our response to a rapidly changing environment. His recent investigations include a three-part series on global climate migration, an examination of the global palm oil trade, the climate drivers behind pandemics, and how climate change is driving global water scarcity. His 2015 series examining the causes of water scarcity in the American West, “Killing the Colorado,” was a finalist for the 2016 Pulitzer Prize for national reporting and received the top honor from the National Academy of Sciences. His earlier investigation into the environmental and economic consequences of fracking received the George Polk award for environmental reporting, the National Press Foundation award for best energy writing, a Sigma Delta Chi award and was honored as finalist for the Goldsmith Prize. He is also a 2022 Emerson Collective Fellow at New America, and a recipient of grant from the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation to supporting his forthcoming book about climate-driven migration. He teaches a course on narrative writing about climate change at the University of California, Berkeley.In this episode, Lustgarten discusses how climate change can impact social issues which in turn can impact political circumstances and drive to mass migration events. He looks at the growing number of areas of the planet that are or are likely to become uninhabitable and considers the political impact of being a destination of mass migration. He also examines why climate change is something that can be hard for people to fully understand or accept. Finally, he discusses what we can and have to do to mitigate climate change and its consequences, in a conversation well worth listening to.              More on this topic• China's Great Train: Beijing's Drive West and the Campaign to Remake Tibet, Abrahm Lustgarten, 2008• Run to Failure: BP and the Making of the Deepwater Horizon Disaster, Abrahm Lustgarten, 2012• Abrahm Lustgarten's award-winning story on “The Water Crisis in the West”https://www.propublica.org/series/killing-the-colorado• Abrahm Lustgarten's ProPublica storieshttps://www.propublica.org/people/abrahm-lustgarten • A series of stories by Abrahm Lustgarten published in The New York Times Magazinehttps://www.newamerica.org/our-people/abrahm-lustgarten/• Abrahm Lustgarten on “The Great Climate Migration”https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AZ6QoCDcEzg• Abrahm Lustgarten on how “The Great Climate Migration Has Begun”https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CvaI9nxSKAw• Podcast It's Not That Simple “Climate Change”, with Bill McKibbenhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TDIIzdst6Fo Other references in Portuguese• Essay of the Foundation “Alterações Climáticas” by Filipe Duarte Santoshttps://www.ffms.pt/publicacoes/detalhe/5409/alteracoes-climaticas• Essay of the Foundation “Riscos Globais e Biodiversidade” by Maria Amélia Martins-Louçãohttps://www.ffms.pt/publicacoes/detalhe/5682/riscos-globais-e-biodiversidade• Podcast [IN] Pertinente “Alterações Climáticas: Ainda vamos a tempo?” with Johan Rockströmhttps://www.ffms.pt/conferencias/detalhe/5799/alteracoes-climaticas-ainda-vamos-a-tempo-uma-entrevista-a-johan-rockstrom• Podcast Da Capa à Contracapa “Como responder aos desafios das alterações climáticas?” with  Filipe Duarte Santos

What is climate change? How is it affect our planet? What consequences does it have on our lives? And must we – and can we – do soften them? To answer these questions, Pedro Pinto interviews Bill McKibben in this episode of “It's Not That Simple”, a podcast by the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation.An expert on climate change, Bill McKibben is a founder of Third Act, which organizes people over the age of 60 for action on climate and justice. His 1989 book The End of Nature is regarded as the first book for a general audience about climate change, and has appeared in 24 languages. He's gone on to write 20 books, and his work appears regularly in periodicals from the New Yorker to Rolling Stone. He serves as the Schumann Distinguished Scholar in Environmental Studies at Middlebury College, as a fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and he has won the Gandhi Peace Prize as well as honorary degrees from 20 colleges and universities. He was awarded the Right Livelihood Award, sometimes called the alternative Nobel, in the Swedish Parliament. Foreign Policy named him to its inaugural list of the world's 100 most important global thinkers. McKibben helped found 350.org, the first global grassroots climate campaign, which has organized protests on every continent, including Antarctica, for climate action. He played a leading role in launching the opposition to big oil pipeline projects like Keystone XL, and the fossil fuel divestment campaign. In 2014, biologists credited his career by naming a new species of woodland gnat—Megophthalmidia mckibbeni–in his honor.In this episode, McKibben discusses the current condition of our planet. He also considers the role of governments and private companies in fighting climate change and its consequences, and looks at what powers like China and the United States are doing – and not doing – to address these issues. He also examines how the lobbying power of the fossil fuel industry interest groups have made the climate crisis worse. Finally, he discusses how the falling prices if renewable sources of energy give us some cause for optimism, in a conversation well worth listening to. More on this topic• The End of Nature, Bill McKibben, 1989• Fight Global Warming Now, Bill McKibben, 2007• Eaarth, Bill McKibben, 2011• The Global Warming Reader, Bill McKibben, 2011• Bill McKibben on how climate change is “the greatest challenge humans have ever faced”https://www.npr.org/2019/04/16/713829853/climate-change-is-greatest-challenge-humans-have-ever-faced-author-says?t=1660062740657• Bill McKibben on “What We've Learned About Climate Change in the Last 30 Years”https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dfm6mfU5uko• Bill McKibben on “Fossil Fuel Divestment”https://www.pbs.org/wnet/amanpour-and-company/video/bill-mckibben-discusses-fossil-fuel-divestment/ Other references in Portuguese• Essay of the Foundation “Alterações Climáticas” by Filipe Duarte Santoshttps://www.ffms.pt/publicacoes/detalhe/5409/alteracoes-climaticas• Essay of the Foundation “Riscos Globais e Biodiversidade” by Maria Amélia Martins-Louçãohttps://www.ffms.pt/publicacoes/detalhe/5682/riscos-globais-e-biodiversidade• Essay of the Foundation “Os Incêndios Florestais em Portugal” by António Bento-Gonçalveshttps://www.ffms.pt/publicacoes/detalhe/5205/os-incendios-florestais-em-portugal• Podcast [IN] Pertinente “Alterações Climáticas: Ainda vamos a tempo?” with Johan Rockströmhttps://www.ffms.pt/conferencias/detalhe/5799/alteracoes-climaticas-ainda-vamos-a-tempo-uma-entrevista-a-johan-rockstrom• Podcast Da Capa à Contracapa “Como responder aos desafios das alterações climáticas?” with  Filipe Duarte Santos e António Costa Silvahttps://www.ffms.pt/podcasts/da-capa-a-contracap

How old is the Universe? How was it born? How will it end? Why are we here? What is a black hole and what do they do? To answer these questions, Pedro Pinto interviews Vítor Cardoso in this episode of “It's Not That Simple”, a podcast by the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation. A renowned astrophysicist, Vítor Cardoso is Chair of the Physics Department at Instituto Superior Técnico, and Villum Investigator and DNRF Chair at the Niels Bohr Institute. He received his PhD in Physics in 2003 at Instituto Superior Técnico and did post-doctoral research in Saint Louis, Missouri and Oxford, Mississippi in the United States. His research interests focus on gravitational waves and black holes and the physics of space, and he is a pioneer in black hole spectroscopy. He is the author of a book and more than 200 articles published in international journals. His research has been distinguished three times by the European Research Council. In 2015, he was awarded the Order of Santiago D'Espada by the Portuguese President, for his contributions to science. In this episode, Vítor Cardoso explains what astrophysics is and what his work in this field entails. Namely, describes how this kind of research necessitates a lot of international cooperation, and also how it forces a person to “struggle with their own limitations as a scientist”. He also addresses the importance of the images taken by the James Webb Space Telescope and how much we learned about Space in the last few decades. He discusses why Space research and exploration matters, and the possibility of having human beings living in other planets. Finally, Vítor Cardoso looks at the likelihood of extraterrestrial life, in a conversation well worth listening to. More on this topic • Superradiance: New Frontiers in Black Hole Physics, Vitor Cardoso, Richard Brito and Paolo Pani, 2020 • “Tests for the existence of black holes through gravitational wave echoes” an article by Vítor Cardoso (with Paolo Pani) published in Nature • A conversation about the Cosmos between Vítor Cardoso and fellow astrophysicists Michio Kaku and Carlo Rovelli, hosted by the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation • Vítor Cardoso on black holes • Vítor Cardoso on “black holes as engines of discovery” Other references in Portuguese • Podcast [IN] Pertinente “Os buracos negros têm cabelo?” with Joana Marques and Vítor Cardoso • Podcast [IN] Pertinente “Porque queremos tanto descobrir o céu?” with Joana Marques and Vítor Cardoso • Podcast Da Capa à Contracapa “O que sabemos sobre o Universo?” with Francisco Lobo and Paulo Crawford • Essay of the Foundation “Portugal e o Espaço” by Manuel Paiva • “Olhos nos Espaço”, a conference held by the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation

What is «corruption»? What different kinds of corruption exist in our modern societies? How does corruption manifest itself in governments, corporations, the judicial system and every other sphere of our lives? To answer these questions, Pedro Pinto interviews Donatella della Porta in this episode of «It's Not That Simple», a podcast by the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation. An expert on corruption, Donatella della Porta is a professor of political science, dean of the Faculty  of Political and Social Sciences  and Director of the PhD program in Political Science and Sociology at the Scuola Normale Superiore in Florence, where she also leads the Center on Social Movement Studies (Cosmos). Among the main topics of her research are social movements, political violence, terrorism, corruption, the police and protest policing. She has directed a major ERC project - Mobilizing for Democracy, on civil society participation in democratization processes in Europe, the Middle East, Asia and Latin America. In 2011, she was the recipient of the Mattei Dogan Prize for distinguished achievements in the field of political sociology; in 2021, she received the Research Awards of the Alexander von Humboldt Stiftung in recognition of her lifetime's research activities. She is an Honorary Doctor of the universities of Lausanne, Bucharest, Goteborg, Jyvaskyla and the University of Peloponnese. She is the author or editor of 90 books, 150 journal articles and 150 contributions in edited volumes.In this episode, della Porta discusses what the term «corruption» means and what kinds of practices constitute an act of corruption. She also examines the resiliency of corruption in our societies, how it uses the corrupt political and judicial systems to avoid criminal prosecution and thus perpetuate itself in a vicious cycle. Della Porta also addresses the evolution of corruption throughout the world in the last few decades, namely how “democratic backsliding” has been at the root of the increasing levels of corruption in many countries. Finally, della Porta considers how to fight corruption, the role of whistleblowers and how to protect them, in a conversation well worth listening to.  More on this topic • Lo Scambio Occulto: casi di corruzione politica in Italia, Donatella della Porta, 1992• Democracy and Corruption in Europe, Donatella della Porta and Yves Mény, 1997• Corrupt Exchanges: Actors, Resources, and Mechanisms of Political Corruption, Donnatella della Porta and Alberto Vannucci, 1999• The Hidden Order of Corruption: An Institutional Approach, Donnatella della Porta and Alberto Vannucci, 2012• Donatella della Porta on social capital and political corruptionhttps://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.1515/9780691186849-013/pdf• Donatella della Porta (with Alberto Vannucci) on the “perverse effects” of political corruptionhttps://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1467-9248.00094?journalCode=psxa Other references in Portuguese• Essay of the Foundation “Corrupção” by Luís de Sousa https://www.ffms.pt/publicacoes/detalhe/15/corrupcao• Essay of the Foundation “Jobs for the Boys”, by Patrícia Silvahttps://www.ffms.pt/publicacoes/detalhe/4947/jobs-for-the-boys-as-nomeacoes-para-a-administracao-publica• “45 Anos de Combate à Corrupção”, a study by Luis Rosa for the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundationhttps://www.ffms.pt/publicacoes/detalhe/5208/45-anos-de-combate-a-corrupcao• An interview with Luís Rosa about his study “45 Anos de Combate à Corrupção”https://www.ffms.pt/play/video/5299/e-possivel-combater-a-corrupcao• Podcast Da Capa à Contracapa, “Como tem sido combatida a corrupção desde Abril de 1974?” with Luís Rosa and Maria José Morgadohttps://www.ffms.pt/podcasts/da-capa-a-contracapa/5306/com

What is it like growing up in a country in civil war? What remains to be achieved in the struggle for women's rights? Will it be possible to heal the wounds opened by the wars of the present and the past? Is it possible to reach peace when the scars of war are still visible? To answer these questions, Pedro Pinto interviews Leymah Roberta Gbowee in this episode of “It's Not That Simple”, a podcast by the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation. A Nobel Peace Prize laureate in 2011, Gbowee is a Liberian Peace Activist, Trained Social Worker and Women's Rights Advocate. She is the Founder and current President of the Gbowee Peace Foundation Africa (GPFA). She also currently serves as the Executive Director of the Women, Peace and Security Program at Columbia University's Earth Institute in New York, USA. She is the Co-Founder and former Executive Director of the Women Peace and Security Network Africa (WIPSEN-A) and a Founding Member and former Liberia Coordinator of Women in Peacebuilding Network (WIPNET).  In this episode, Gbowee discusses her experience growing up in civil war-torn Liberia, her time in a refugee camp in Ghana, and how he set up small donut and braid businesses to be able to get food and money. Gbowee also addresses the work she does with victims of war and for peace, the biggest obstacles to peace today and what needs to be done to overcome them. Finally, Gbowee also looks at the progresses made in the struggle for women's rights, and the obstacles women still face today in cultures that do not recognize their worth.  More on this topic • Mighty Be Our Powers: How Sisterhood, Prayer, and Sex Changed a Nation at War; a Memoir, Leymah Roberta Gbowee (com Carol Mithers), 2011 • Leymah Roberta Gbowee's Nobel Lecture, 2011 https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/2011/gbowee/lecture/ • Documentary about Leymah Roberta Gbowee, 2008 https://vimeo.com/188872289  Other references in Portuguese• Podcast [IN]Pertinente, “Vamos falar de Direitos Humanos?”, with Raquel Vaz Pinto and Pedro Vieira https://www.ffms.pt/podcasts/fundacao-ffms-in-pertinente/5970/politica-vamos-falar-de-direitos-humanos • Podcast [IN]Pertinente, “De quantas mulheres se faz a igualdade de género?”, with Raquel Vaz Pinto and Pedro Vieira https://www.ffms.pt/podcasts/fundacao-ffms-in-pertinente/5848/politica-de-quantas-mulheres-se-faz-a-igualdade-de-genero • Podcast Da Capa à Contracapa, “A situação desigual das mulheres em Portugal”, with Anália Torres and Sandra Ribeiro https://www.ffms.pt/podcasts/da-capa-a-contracapa/5399/a-situacao-desigual-das-mulheres-em-portugal • Conferência, “Apresentação do estudo «Igualdade de género ao longo da vida»”, by Anália Torres https://www.ffms.pt/conferencias/detalhe/2584/apresentacao-do-estudo-igualdade-de-genero-ao-longo-da-vida 

How disastrous was “Brexit”? How much did it affect the United Kingdom's economy and its living standards? How has it changed the political relationship between the UK and the European Union? Could it ever be reversed? To answer these questions, Pedro Pinto interviews R. Daniel Kelemen in this episode of “It's Not That Simple”, a podcast by the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation. An expert on European Affairs, Kelemen is a Professor of Political Science and Law at Rutgers University, where he is the Chair of the Department of Political Science. Prior to Rutgers, Kelemen was Fellow in Politics at the Lincoln College, University of Oxford. He has been a Member of the Institute for Advanced Study at Princeton, visiting fellow in the Program in Law and Public Affairs (LAPA) at Princeton University, and a Fulbright Fellow at the Centre for European Policy Studies in Brussels. Kelemen is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and he is a frequent commentator on EU affairs in US and international media. In this episode, Kelemen discusses how the pandemic and the war in Ukraine have masked the negative impact of “Brexit”, the future of the relationship between the UK and Europe, and the role of the British government led by Boris Johnson. Kelemen also addresses the way in which the public's attitude towards politics increasingly resembles a fan's attitude towards the football team they root for, and the process of democratic backsliding and increasing authoritarianism in some European Union countries. Finally, Kelemen looks at the 2022 French presidential elections, at how Russia's invasion of Ukraine will unite Europe, and at Putin's efforts to divide it, in a conversation well worth listening to. More on this topic • Eurolegalism: The Transformation of Law and Regulation in the European Union, R. Daniel Kelemen, 2011 • R. Daniel Kelemen on the causes, controversies and consequences of Brexit • An article by R. Daniel Kelemen on authoritarianism in the EU • R. Daniel Kelemen' opinion pieces for Politico Other references in Portuguese • Podcast Da Capa à Contracapa, “Brexit e a Europa que temos”, with Ana Gomes and Miguel Poiares Maduro • Podcast Da Capa à Contracapa, “Eleições numa Europa cada vez mais fragmentada”, with Nuno Sampaio and Carlos Jalali

How much impact did the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have on the global economy? How will technology change sectors like health or education? What is causing the slowdown in economic growth around the world? How worried should we be about inflation? To answer these questions, Pedro Pinto interviews Michael Spence in this episode of “It's Not That Simple”, a podcast by the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation. A Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences, Michael Spence is the Philip H. Knight Professor Emeritus of Management in the Graduate School of Business at Stanford University, a Senior Fellow of the Hoover Institution at Stanford, and a Distinguished Visiting Fellow of the Council on Foreign Relations. He is an Adjunct Professor at Bocconi University in Milan, and an Honorary Fellow of Magdalen College, Oxford University. Spence is a Senior Advisor to Jasper Ridge Partners and a Senior Advisor to General Atlantic Partners. He co-chairs (with Dr. Victor Fung) the Advisory Council of the Asia Global Institute and was the Chairman of The Independent Commission on Growth and Development (2006-2010). In this episode, Spence discusses how congestion in global supply chains contributed to rising inflation, and what central banks can do to try to keep it under control. He also examines the role of the United States and China in the global economy, and how they can increase productivity growth. Spence also addresses how the labour market has changed and will continue to change because of the Covid-19 pandemic and technology. Finally, Spence considers the impact “digital nomads” coming to live in Portugal while working remotely have on the local housing market, and how the country can balance the benefits of attracting dynamic foreign entrepreneurs with the ability to ensure that the local population isn't “priced out” of its own cities. More on this topic • The Next Convergence: The Future of Economic Growth in a Multispeed World, Michael Spence, 2011 • Michael Spence's Nobel Prize Lecture, 2001 • Michael Spence (with James Manyika) on the post-Covid-19 global economy • Michael Spence's op-ed pieces on Project Syndicate • “Globalization and Technology”, a debate hosted by the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation Other references in Portuguese • “O Mercado Imobiliário em Portugal”, a study by Paulo M. M. Rordrigues for the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation • “Um novo normal? Impactos e lições de dois anos de pandemia em Portugal”, a study by Nuno Monteiro and Carlos Jalali for the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation • Podcast Da Capa à Contracapa, “A digitalização da vida” with José Tribolet and João Mota Lopes

What is social mobility? How can we measure it? How can we promote it? Is the “American Dream” still alive? How did the Covid-19 pandemic impact social mobility around the world? To answer these questions, Pedro Pinto interviews John Friedman in this episode of “It's Not That Simple”, a podcast by the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation. An expert on social mobility, John Friedman is a Professor of Economics at Brown University, as well as a founding co-Director of Opportunity Insights. He studies the causes and consequences of inequality for kids, as well as policies to improve opportunity for children from disadvantaged backgrounds. His work has appeared in top academic journals as well as in major media outlets, has been cited by President Obama in his 2012 State of the Union Address, and has shaped policies at the federal, state, and local level. Most recently, John and his colleagues at Opportunity Insights have published the Economic Tracker, providing the most granular and real-time look at how COVID-19 is affecting the economy in cities and states across America. He worked as Special Assistant to the President for Economic Policy at the National Economic Council in the White House. He is also a Research Associate at NBER and a Co-Editor of American Economic Review. In this episode, Friedman discusses the importance of a person's childhood and young adulthood in shaping their adult life and how high a step in the social ladder they will be able to reach, as well as how much education – and high-quality teachers – matter to a person's social mobility. Friedman also addresses how society limits people's opportunities depending on the circumstances into which they were born, and how women still face more obstacles to their social mobility than men. Finally, Friedman looks at the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine on social mobility in different parts of the world, in a conversation well worth listening to. More on this topic • The Economic Tracker created by John Friedman and the Opportunity Insights team • John Friedman on the issues identified by the Economic Tracker • An interview with John Friedman • John Friedman on improving intergenerational mobility Other references in Portuguese • “Mobilidade Social em Portugal”, a study by Teresa Bago d'Uva and Marli Fernandes for the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation • Podcast Da Capa à Contracapa, “O elevador social em Portugal está estragado?” with Amílcar Moreira and Maria de Lurdes Rodrigues.

Has the Covid-19 pandemic changed the world's balance of economic power? How important were political leaders in responding to the crisis born out of the pandemic? Has the latter led to a proliferation of propaganda and disinformation? How serious is the threat of Covid-19 when compared to other problems facing humanity, such as global warming or other public health crises? To answer these questions, Pedro Pinto interviews Adam Tooze in this episode of “It's Not That Simple”, a podcast by the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation. A renowned historian, commentator and author, Adam Tooze is a Professor at Columbia University in New York, where he is Director of the European Institute. In the past, he has taught at Cambridge and Yale Universities, as well as at the United States Military Academy at West Point. Tooze teaches and researches widely in the fields of twentieth century and contemporary history with a special focus on the history of economics and a range of themes in political, intellectual, and military history, across a canvas stretching from Europe to the Atlantic. His books have won awards in several countries, and his articles have been published in newspapers or magazines such as the Financial Times, New York Times, The Guardian, Sunday Telegraph, Observer, Prospect Magazine, Times Literary Supplement, London Review of Books, Wall Street Journal, New York Review of Books, Die Zeit or Spiegel. In this episode, Tooze discusses the initial reaction of financial markets to the Covid-19 pandemic, the way in which the three major poles of the world economy (United States, the European Union and China) suffered an “extraordinary shock” with the pandemic, and how structural factors and luck were the decisive elements in each society's response to the crisis. Tooze also addresses the challenge of global warming, the role that countries such as China, Brazil, India, or Indonesia may play in responding to this challenge, and what kind of measures will have to be adopted for this response to be successful. Finally, Tooze also looks at issues such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine (and the West's and China's responses), or how citizens and governments regard statistics, facts, and truth. More on this topic • Shutdown: How Covid Shook the World's Economy, Adam Tooze, 2021 • Crashed: How a Decade of Financial Crises Changed the World, Adam Tooze, 2018 • The Wages of Destruction: The Making and Breaking of the Nazi Economy, Adam Tooze, 2006 • A profile of Adam Tooze, 2022 • Conference “Debt and risk sharing in the EU in times of pandemic”, held by the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation, 2020 • “How is democracy doing?”, Timothy Snyder interviewed by Pedro Pinto Other references in Portuguese • Podcast Da Capa à Contracapa, “Que China sairá da pandemia?”, with António Caeiro and Marcos Caramuru de Paiva • Podcast Da Capa à Contracapa, “EUA ou China? Com a pandemia chegou o 'momento da escolha' para Portugal”, with Carlos Gaspar and Miguel Monjardino • Podcast Da Capa à Contracapa, “Como responder aos desafios das alterações climáticas?”

What challenges and threats do European democracies face today? How actually democratic are they? What is an illiberal democracy? Will democracy in Europe resist the stress-test of the Covid-19 pandemic? Was “Brexit” a vaccine against Euroscepticism? To answer this questions, Pedro Pinto interviews Catherine de Vries in this episode of “It's Not That Simple” a podcast by the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation. A political scientist and an expert on European politics, Catherine de Vries is a Dean of Diversity & Inclusion and Professor of Political Science at Bocconi University, and has published several books on the economic, political, and social reality of the European Union. A columnist of Het Financieele Dagblad (the “Dutch Financial Times”), de Vries is also a member of European Integration Committee of the Dutch Advisory Council on Foreign Affairs, and in 2013, she was selected a Young Global Leader in the World Economic Forum for her societal impact. In this episode, de Vries discusses the impasse the European Union has found itself in since the Treaty of Lisbon, the opportunities the current crisis might present to the EU, the impact national elections such as the April 2022 French elections might have on the EU's future, or the challenges of the energy transition, in a conversation worth listening to. More on this topic • Euroscepticism and the Future of European Integration, Catherine de Vries, 2018 • On Euroscepticism and the future of European integration, Catherine de Vries, 2017 • Catherine de Vries and historian Timothy Garton Ash on the challenges faced by European leaders • On why it is so hard to reach a consensus within European institutions • Conference on “What Democracy?” of the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation, 2016 • On the “illiberal democracies” of Hungary and Poland, by historian Anne Applebaum Other references in Portuguese • Essays of the Foundation: “A democracia na Europa”, by Catherine Moury; “Qualidade da democracia em Portugal” by Conceição Pequito Teixeira; “Instituições e qualidade da democracia: cultura política na Europa do Sul”, a study coordinated by Tiago Fernandes. • [IN] Pertinente podcast, “Estará a democracia ameaçada?”, with Raquel Vaz-Pinto and Pedro Vieira

What does Vladimir Putin want? What makes him so dangerous? How can he be fought? What role could countries like China play in solving the crisis of the Russian invasion of Ukraine? Are we on the brink of nuclear war? To answer these questions, Pedro Pinto interviews Mark Galeotti in this episode of “It's Not That Simple”, a podcast by the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation. A renowned author, speaker and professor at University College London, Mark Galeotti is an expert on Russian politics and Vladimir Putin, having authored several books on these topics. With a degree in History from Robinson College in Cambridge, Galeotti directs the consultancy firm Mayak Intelligence, and has been a professor at Rutgers University in Newark, at New York University, at Charles University in Prague and at MGIMO in Moscow and has worked for the UK's Foreign & Commonwealth Office. In this episode, Galeotti discusses Vladimir Putin's political career, how he is more like a judoka than a chess master, and the impact of the collapse of the Soviet Union on today's Russia and on its leader. Galeotti also analyses the role propaganda, disinformation, and control of the media play in Putin's grip on power, the nature of the Russian regime and Putin's relationship with its "oligarchs". Finally, Galeotti also considers the actions of the Russian armed forces in the war in Ukraine, the reasons for the difficulties they have faced, the possible impact of Western sanctions against Russia, plausible scenarios for an end to the war, and Russia's growing external isolation, in a conversation worth listening to. More on this topic • The Vory: Russia's Super Mafia, Mark Galeotti, 2018 • Russian Political War, Mark Galeotti, 2019 • We Need To Talk About Putin, Mark Galeotti, 2019 • The Weaponisation of Everything, Mark Galeotti, 2002 • In Moscow's Shadows, Mark Galeotti's podcast • Mark Galeotti on the Russian invasion of Ukraine • Videocast [IN] Pertinente “Where does the greatest threat to the West lie? In Moscow or Beijing?” François Heisbourg Other references in Portuguese • Essay of the Foundation, “Rússia e Europa: uma parte do todo”, by José Milhazes • Podcast Da Capa à Contracapa, “Que Rússia é esta e como chegámos até aqui?”, with Carlos Gaspar and Sandra Fernandes • Podcast [IN] Pertinente, “É possível compreender a Rússia”, with Raquel Vaz-Pinto and Pedro Vieira

Is it possible to predict the future? What is “data journalism”? Have polls become increasingly unreliable? To answer these questions, Pedro Pinto interviews Nate Silver in this episode of “It's Not That Simple”, a podcast by the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation. A statistician famous for correctly predicting the results of the 2008 US presidential election in 49 of the 50 states of the Union, Nate Silver is the founder of the website FiveThirtyEight.com, which uses “data journalism” to cover areas such as politics, science, health, and sports. Silver started out as a baseball statistical analyst (having written several books on the topic), before turning to politics and polls. In 2012, he published the book The Signal and The Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction, and has written for publications such as The New York Times, ESPN, Sports Illustrated and Slate. In 2009, he was named one of Time Magazine's 100 Most Influential People. In this episode, Silver explains how his election prediction model works, as well as what probabilistic thinking is and the difference between correctly predicting who wins an election and reliably calibrating the probability that a given candidate will win. Silver also discusses the value and usefulness of polls, as well as their limitations. Finally, Silver analyses the complexity of the American electoral system and the obstacles that this (and the relatively low frequency in which elections take place) poses to the accuracy of electoral forecasts, in a conversation well worth listening to. More on this topic • The Signal and The Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction, Nate Silver, 2012 • New York Magazine article on Nate Silver, 2008 • Newsweek article on Nate Silver, 2008 • Article about Nate Silver in The Atlantic, 2020 • Conference “How Far Can We See the Future?”, with Philip E. Tetlock at the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation Other references in Portuguese • Essay of the Foundation “Sondagens, Eleições e Opinião Pública”, by Pedro Magalhães