Podcasts about defensives

Wall Street recorded a mixed session after recovering from midday lows as it weighed Trump's critical comments of China which were also optimistic about a trade deal. S&P 500 flat, up 1.88% for the week. NASDAQ down 0.32%, up 2.01% for the week. Dow was flat until midday where it dropped but it recovered by the end of the session. Up 54 points, near high, up 667 points for the week. Mixed sector performance. Defensives did well for the second consecutive day. Utilities up as yields eased. Non-Cyclicals and Healthcare also did well. Energy followed oil lower. Growth sectors like Cyclicals and Tech continued to show weakness, shedding a few of the week's gains.Gold down 0.8%, back below $3300. US dollar up 0.2%. Bitcoin down 1.3%.European markets modestly up in muted session. STOXX 600 up 0.1%, FTSE up 0.6%. Asian markets all down. Japan down 0.4%, HK down 1.2%.Bond yields fell as risk sentiment worsened following Trump's China comments. US 10Y down 2.8bps, US 2Y down 3.9bps.ASX SPI up 8 - SOL/BKW merger - Quiet start to week.Want to invest with Marcus Today? The Managed Strategy Portfolio is designed for investors seeking exposure to our strategy while we do the hard work for you. If you're looking for personal financial advice, our friends at Clime Investment Management can help. Their team of licensed advisers operates across most states, offering tailored financial planning services.  Why not sign up for a free trial? Gain access to expert insights, research, and analysis to become a better investor.

Wall Street recorded a positive session following Nvidia's strong after-market results Wednesday. Markets had a lot to digest as a US trade court challenged Trump's ability to impose tariffs, a move later overruled for the time being by the appeals court. Biggest legal challenge to Trump yet and will escalate. S&P 500 up 0.40%, NASDAQ up 0.39%. Dow rose at open, continually dropped until midday, and found strength to rise and end near high. Up 117 points. All sectors saw green. REITS biggest beneficiaries as yields fell following appeals court reinstatement of tariffs. Financials also benefitted. Energy up despite oil falling. Defensives in general were the best performing sectors. Growth sectors like Cyclicals and Tech, while positive, were the biggest laggards. Nvidia the biggest gainer following earnings, up 3.2%. Despite US curbs on chips to China, positive sentiment from Nvidia boosted other chips. Dell (-0.1%) also raised full year profit forecast on strong AI server demand, adding further fuel to the AI train. Netflix down 2.0% on no major news. Mixed performance from the other large Tech names, either modest gains or losses. Costco (-0.4%) missed earning expectations as consumer discretionary spending fell amidst economic uncertainty. Tariffs will be felt more by companies come Q2 earnings – Gap (-1.0%) flagged as much in their earnings report. Resources struggled. Despite the dollar slipping further, base metals fell. Nickel and tin both down over 2.5% as economic uncertainty once again came to the forefront following the various legal challenges, and then supports, on Trump's tariff policy.ASX to fall. SPI futures down 22 points (-0.26%). Gold back up - Oil down. Quiet session in store.Want to invest with Marcus Today? The Managed Strategy Portfolio is designed for investors seeking exposure to our strategy while we do the hard work for you. If you're looking for personal financial advice, our friends at Clime Investment Management can help. Their team of licensed advisers operates across most states, offering tailored financial planning services.  Why not sign up for a free trial? Gain access to expert insights, research, and analysis to become a better investor.

Global stocks fell Friday as Trump reignited trade war fears. S&P 500 down 0.67%. Nasdaq down 1%. Dow down 256 points. Indices opened at the low, rising for most the session. VIX up 10%. The main headline: ‘here we go again'. Trump threatened 50% tariffs on EU goods after Bessent said the current deals weren't good enough. He had been quiet since returning from the Middle-East…too quiet. Does support the narrative this new administration wants volatility. The EU exports ~€500bn to the US each year. Mostly pharmaceuticals, autos, chemicals and aircraft.Tech and discretionary spending stocks were the biggest losers. Defensives the best. Bond yields mixed. Both the US30Y and 10Y fell while the 2Y was unchanged. SPI down 30 - Gold and Oil up - WTC makes big acquisition. US Markets closed tonight.Want to invest with Marcus Today? The Managed Strategy Portfolio is designed for investors seeking exposure to our strategy while we do the hard work for you. If you're looking for personal financial advice, our friends at Clime Investment Management can help. Their team of licensed advisers operates across most states, offering tailored financial planning services.  Why not sign up for a free trial? Gain access to expert insights, research, and analysis to become a better investor.

The ASX 200 started the week giving back 80 points to 8158 (1%) as the bank rally faded post WBC results. Slightly underwhelming and lack of growth to blame. WBC fell 3.0% taking CBA down 1.6% and the Big Bank Basket down to $265.29 (1.7%). MQG followed the other lower down 1.8% ahead of numbers Friday. Other financials gave up early gains, with RPL and XYZ, two of the only winners. REITs also slipped led by GMG down 2.2% and MGR off 0.9% with industrials also weaker. Retail sagged, PMV down 3.4% and APE off 3.1% with MYR down 3.5%. Defensives such as TLS slid 1.1% and REA down 1.8%. Resources held up better with BHP down only 0.9% and RIO off 0.9% despite rising Iron ore prices in Singapore. Gold miners were mixed, GOR jumped 9.4% on the takeover by Goldfields, NST up 0.4% and EVN up 2.1% with BGL rallying 2.2%. Lithium stocks were flat, LYC up 1.8% and oil and gas stocks crumbling in the face of oils fall. WDS down 3.6% and STO off 4.0%. Uranium stocks mixed, NXG down 4.6% and BOE up 0.8%. In corporate news, TYR pulled out of SMP talks, PLY dumped after CEO retires wounded. RWC warned on tariffs and fell 2.4% with EDV forecasting flat to modest retail sales growth. Nothing on the economic front. In Asia, China and Japan closed for a holiday. 10-year yields pushing higher to 4.26%.Want to invest with Marcus Today? The Managed Strategy Portfolio is designed for investors seeking exposure to our strategy while we do the hard work for you. If you're looking for personal financial advice, our friends at Clime Investment Management can help. Their team of licensed advisers operates across most states, offering tailored financial planning services.  Why not sign up for a free trial? Gain access to expert insights, research, and analysis to become a better investor.

Praises or critics can be send here! Also if there's anything you wish to hear about please send your requests here!The PvP scene in World of Warcraft deserves more attention, particularly regarding its current state and potential improvements that could increase player participation.• DPS players dying without using defensive cooldowns frustrates healers, but penalizing them isn't the solution• Current "burst meta" makes PvP exciting but can be daunting for newcomers• Rather than nerfing strong classes, underperforming specs should be buffed to create better balance• Low-rated players should focus on using all defensive cooldowns appropriately and maintaining a relaxed mindset• The 18-year-old MMR system needs a complete overhaul similar to Overwatch's 0-5000 rating approach• Strategic placement of rewards at various rating thresholds would encourage consistent participation• Resto Shaman tips: maintain constant Healing Stream Totem uptime and effective use of Earth Living WeaponCheck out our Etsy shop with new items being added weekly, and follow our socials for constant updates.Hope you all enjoy and hope you relate to any of these stories. And I will speak to you all in the next episode!Want some 3D printed Merch, find it here!https://pigandwhistletales.etsy.comSupport the show here:https://www.buzzsprout.com/1196870/supportpatreon.com/Pigandwhistlehttps://www.buymeacoffee.com/PigandWhistleSocials :Twitch : https://www.twitch.tv/pigandwhistletalesYoutube : https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCAOi6rHO3x90lOmmb82Jv1wWebsite : https://www.pigandwhistletales.com/Instagram : https://www.instagram.com/pigandwhistletales/Facebook : https://www.facebook.com/PigAndWhistleTalesTry out Buzzsprout yourself! https://www.buzzsprout.com/?referrer_id=1154066Listen to the podcast on other platforms:https://www.listennotes.com/podcasts/pig-whistle-tales-from-azeroth-gabriel-nsa902LrQVw/https://www.podchaser.com/podcasts/pig-whistle-tales-from-azeroth-1315927https://open.spotify.com/show/5ZTkLtQvRSm4PStUfZquWkhttps://podcastaddict.com/podcast/3032607The Music at the start is from Tony Catch they do many amazing cover songs for games you can find the link here:https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCHiF0dAkbpPMtQSwvAxcapQSupport the showSupport the show here: https://www.buzzsprout.com/1196870/support patreon.com/Pigandwhistle https://www.buymeacoffee.com/PigandWhistle

The ASX 200 tried hard but ultimately failed falling 192 points to 7668 (2.4%) for a 4.0% loss for the week. It feels like a lot more. After the drubbing of the iron ore stocks yesterday, all held up better than the market, BHP down only 0.5% and FMG off 0.6%. Elsewhere copper and base metal stocks were slashed, S32 down 5.4% with NIC off 8.0% and MIN falling 9.9%. Lithium once again under pressure, PLS down 4.9% and LTR off 3.1%. Oil and gas stocks were under serious pressure on OPEC+ moves, WDS fell 9.1% and STO down 9.4%. Uranium stocks found little support, BOE up 2.7% and PDN down only 0.7%. Some big moves in JHX down 7.8% and DNL (IPL in old money) dropping 8.2% Gold miners were mixed. GOR up 2.4% and RMS gaining 2.1% but NEM down 2.5%. Banks gave up the unequal struggle with the Big Bank Basket down to $246.87(-1.9%) and ANZ down 3.7%. MQG fell a huge 9.0% with financials under pressure. A report of hacking of some superfund managers did not help. MPL rose 1.1%. At least it wasn't them this time. WOW and COL rose on defensive aspects, retail stumbled and REITs falling, GMG down 5.0%, WES fell 2.5% and SGH off 5.3%. Healthcare stocks eased. In corporate news, ANN bounced 3.0% after saying it would fully offset tariff rises. Nothing on the economic front. NFP in the US tonight. Asian markets muted, China and HK closed for a holiday, Japan down 3.6%Want to invest with Marcus Today? The Managed Strategy Portfolio is designed for investors seeking exposure to our strategy while we do the hard work for you. If you're looking for personal financial advice, our friends at Clime Investment Management can help. Their team of licensed advisers operates across most states, offering tailored financial planning services.  Why not sign up for a free trial? Gain access to expert insights, research, and analysis to become a better investor.

Wall St sold off on Friday after new economic data reignited tariff driven stagflation concerns. Dow Jones down 401 points, closing on the low. S&P 500 down 2% and the Nasdaq down 2.7%. Discretionary stocks and Big Tech were hardest hit. Already in a sentiment low the mega-cap names fell. Microsoft (-3%), Apple (-2.7%), Amazon (-4.3%), Meta (-4.3%). Big Chips fared slightly better (still fell). They had underperformed all week. Financials, Materials and Defensives also dropped. Utilities were the only sector to finish in the green. REITs and Health Care near flat. For the week. S&P 500 down 1.5% and the Nasdaq down 2.6%.SPI down 91 - DHG agrees bid Want to invest with Marcus Today? The Managed Strategy Portfolio is designed for investors seeking exposure to our strategy while we do the hard work for you. If you're looking for personal financial advice, our friends at Clime Investment Management can help. Their team of licensed advisers operates across most states, offering tailored financial planning services.  Why not sign up for a free trial? Gain access to expert insights, research, and analysis to become a better investor.

With the Federal Reserve poised to make its long-awaited rate cut this week, our CIO and Chief US Equity Strategist tells us why investors have pivoted their concerns from high inflation to slowing growth. ----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief US Equity Strategist. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll be talking about what to expect as the Fed likely begins its long-awaited rate cutting cycle this week. It's Monday, Sept 16th at 10:30am in New York.So let's get after it.After nearly 12 months of great anticipation, the Fed is very likely to start its rate cutting cycle this week. The old adage that it is often easier to travel than arrive may apply as markets appear to have priced an aggressive Fed cutting cycle into the middle of next year while assuming a soft-landing outcome for the economy.More specifically, the two-year US Treasury yield is now 180 basis points below the Fed Funds Rate which is in line with the widest spread in 40 years, a level associated with a hard landing. This is the bond market's way of messaging to the Fed that they are late in getting started with rate cuts. This doesn't mean the Fed can't get ahead of it, but they may need to move faster to keep investors' hopes alive.As a result, the odds of a 50 basis point cut have increased over the past week but it's still well below a certainty. This is unusual going into an FOMC meeting and is setting markets up for a greater surprise either way. How the markets react to what the Fed does this week will have an even greater influence on investor sentiment than usual, in my view. Ideally, rates should rise at both the front and back end if the bond market likes the Fed's actions because it signals they aren't as far behind in trying to orchestrate a soft landing. Conversely, a fall in rates will be a vote of lower confidence. On the other side of the ledger, we have the equity market which appears to be highly convicted that the Fed has already secured the soft landing, at least at the index level. Today, the S&P 500 trades at 21x forward earnings, which also assumes a healthy path of 10 percent earnings growth in 2024 and 15 percent growth in 2025. Under the surface, the market has skewed much more defensively as it worries more about growth and less about high inflation. I have commented extensively in this podcast about this shift that started in April and why we have been persistently recommending defensive quality for months. With the significant outperformance of defensive sectors since April, the internals of the equity market may not be betting on a soft landing and reacceleration in growth as the S&P 500 index suggests.Keep in mind that the S&P 500 is a defensive, high-quality index of stocks and so it typically holds up better than most stocks as growth slows in a late cycle environment like today. These growth concerns will likely persist unless the data turn around, irrespective of what the Fed does this week.In the 11 Fed rate cutting cycles since 1973, eight were associated with recessions while only three were not. The performance over the following year was very mixed with half negative and half positive with a very wide but equal skew. Specifically, the average performance over the 12 months following the start of a Fed rate cutting cycle is 3.5 percent – or about half of the longer-term average returns. The best 12-month returns were 33 percent, while the worst was a negative 31 percent. Bottom line, it's generally a toss-up at the index level. The analysis around style and sectors is clearer. Value tends to outperform growth into the first cut and underperform growth thereafter. Defensives tend to outperform cyclicals both before and after the cut. Large caps also tend to outperform small caps both before and after the first rate cut. These last two factor dynamics are supportive of our defensive and large cap bias as Fed cuts often come in a later cycle environment. It's also why we are sticking with it. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the podcast, leave us a review wherever you listen, and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Münkel, Jana; Vad, Erich www.deutschlandfunkkultur.de, Studio 9 - Der Tag mit ...

The ASX 200 has finished the day down 13 points (-0.16%) to 7817 in mixed trade which saw a recovery from opening lows. Telecom was the best performer for a second day in a row thanks to TLS rising another 2.4% on positive broker commentary. Industrials rose as a drop in bond yields took TCL 1.1% higher. JHX lost 2% after a broker pushed out the US renovation market recovery till FY26. AZJ gained 0.6% after Morgans forecasted EPS growth of 16% this financial year. Defensives, Financials and Health Care held ground. Three of the big four banks well off morning lows. CBA and NAB down 0.1%, WBC down 0.6%. ANZ up 1.4%. Bell Financial had positive results rising 3.3%. There aren't many listed stock brokers. COH up 1.7%, PME down 0.3%.Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert market insights and manage your investments with confidence. Ready to invest in yourself? Join the Marcus Today community. 

The ASX 200 has finished the day up 78 points (1%) to 7778, closing near the high. The RBA's decision to hold rates passing unnoticed by the market. Bond yields did respond, the AU2Y rising 5bp on the announcement and subsequent Michele Bullock press conference. The Utilities sector was the star performer thanks to a 3.5% rise in ORG. Banks were next best with solid gains continuing. MQG up 2.6%, the CBA up 2% (will tend to do better than its peers which have gone ex-dividend already). ANZ, WBC and NAB still up between 0.9% and 2.1%. Defensives kept up the winning streak. Industrials, Health Care and Staples doing well. TCL unperturbed by the bond yield gains. Up 1.6%. SVW recovered some of its 2.1% drop yesterday. Materials was the only major sector to finish flat thanks to FMG's big block sale commencing. Down 5.2%. BHP and RIO both managed gains after five straight down days. Up 0.6% and 0.9%. Gold stocks were mixed as bond yields rose. NEM up 2.2% on a broker upgrade. NST down 1.1%. Uranium fairly flat aside from BOE up 2.2%. Spot prices hovering around US$85 a pound. Lithium stocks had a small relief rally after taking a battering. PLS the best up 3.8%. It had fallen 25% in less than a month.Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert market insights and manage your investments with confidence. Ready to invest in yourself? Join the Marcus Today community. 

Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy In contrast to Q1, when key bond proxy Defensive sectors – Utilities, Real Estate and Staples – were the three worst performers, Q2 has brought a change. QTD, these three sectors are in line in Europe, making a positive swing in performance of 10%. The worst performers so far this quarter are Autos, Travel & Leisure, Chemicals, Luxury and Construction Materials – all Cyclicals. Will this shift last? We believe it will, on further repricing of a range of tail risks, and reiterate our barbell of OW Defensives and Commodities. First, many Cyclical sectors, with some notable exceptions such as Chemicals, Commodities and Logistics, strongly outperformed Defensives last year, when PMIs were falling, so why should they now outperform again? Also, the valuations of Cyclicals, which were cheap at end 2022, have moved to the expensive side of fair value. Second, activity momentum is picking up in manufacturing and in Europe/China, the laggards from last year, but crucially US growth momentum is likely slowing into year-end. As US CESI has turned negative, Defensives could have the upper hand. Finally, bond yields are likely to be flat or move lower into year-end; we reiterate our call from last October that US 10-year yield has likely peaked at 5%. Now, in terms of styles, this should keep helping our OW on Growth vs Value, but should also support bond proxies. Looking at Defensive sectors, Healthcare as an index was up this year in Q1, and in Q2 it worked even ex NOVOB. We think this broadening should continue. Utilities see a pickup in CO2 and in gas prices, in addition to supportive EPS momentum. Staples do not have many fans, but are markedly cheaper currently than in 2022. On the negative side, we remain cautious on Consumer Discretionary – in particular on Autos and on Luxury; we are still UW Chemicals, even as we acknowledge that they already had a terrible 2023, and are again strongly behind ytd, by 1000bp in Europe; and we think that Banks are likely to keep rolling over.   This podcast was recorded on 17 June 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4724125-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy Last couple of months are showing softening US growth momentum, but at the same time an increasing potential for higher for longer Fed. We see the market upside capped during summer due to the inconsistency between consensus call for disinflation on one hand, and the belief in no landing and in earnings acceleration on the other. Within the market there was a more Defensive rotation underway in Q2, compared to Q1. We think this will continue on likely peaking in bond yields and more attractive valuations. At sector level, we hold a barbell of Defensives and Commodities, and are in particular cautious on Consumer Cyclicals such as Autos and Travel & Leisure. Stylewise, our OW on Growth vs Value continued working – we are not changing it for now, but Small caps could trade better in 2H. They have again lagged ytd, in all key regions, are cheap, and typically perform better when policy cuts start in Europe. In addition, European activity already had a reset last year, and is likely to be better this year. For the US, the rotation might work also, but we do not see it as clear cut, as Fed could stay higher for longer, and US domestic growth could actually weaken meaningfully in 2H. We reverse our long-term preference for FTSE100 vs FTSE250. This podcast was recorded on 02 June 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4715457-0.pdf  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert market insights and manage your investments with confidence.Ready to invest in yourself? Join the Marcus Today community.

Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy In this report, we focus on two topics: first, at sector level on the Cyclicals vs Defensives performance into rate cuts and against the backdrop of falling bond yields, and at the style level on the performance of Large vs Small caps. Historically, Defensives and bond proxies struggled when bond yields would be moving higher. This phase might be ending. Especially if bond yields are falling as economic growth is moderating, the sector leadership is likely to be more Defensively tilted, as is the case so far in Q2. Additional considerations are: valuations – Cyclicals are generally trading stretched vs Defensives; past performance – the Cyclical run over the last 18 months has opened up a gap with PMIs, which has not closed yet; and finally the weaker recent earnings delivery of Cyclical vs Defensive sectors. We favour a barbell of Defensives and Commodities. With respect to Small vs Large caps style tilts, there is a typical pattern of weakness in Small caps into, and a rebound post, the start of central banks easing. This is visible for both the Eurozone and UK small caps. For the US Small vs Large caps, the weakness into the first Fed cut is seen too, but there was no imminent rebound, more a weaker performance for another six months or so, and only then a recovery. Additional consideration for small caps trade is likely the domestic economic backdrop. Here, European growth had a reset last year, and is looking sequentially better this year, while US was resilient last year, but could soften from here. Small caps have had two poor years everywhere, and are lagging again so far ytd, by 9% in the US, 4% in Eurozone, 2% in UK and 8% in Japan – the turn might be upon us, likely more in Europe than in the US, though, given less visibility over Fed start and softer forward activity momentum in the US. This podcast was recorded on 27 May 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4117650-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

 The ASX 200 falls 36 points to 7812 (0.5%) off the session lows as defensives rallied hard. NASDAQ futures improved helped by Nvidia results a positive. Healthcare and supermarkets did well. CSL up 1.4% with RMD rallying 1.0% and COH up 1.6%. WOW and COL also bucking the trend with WES continuing to fall. TLS managed a 1.2% rally after the recent drubbing. BXB put on 1.0% and SVW up 1.0%. Utilities doing ok, ORG up 1.9% on the power station news, and Tech better led by XRO with some good results rallying 8.7%. The All-Tech Index up 0.9%. In the banks, a little sloppy today The Big Four off around 1% and the Basket down to $210.38 (0.8%). Insurers better with QBE up 1.1% but MQG down 1.0%. REITS dipped with SCG off 0.9% and GPT down 1.1%. Resources were the problem today, BHP dropped 2.9% on its third and ‘final' bid for Anglo being 9% higher and rejected again. RIO was dumped down 2.0% and FMG off 1.1%. Lithium and base metal stocks fell hard. Uranium was smacked down, PDN down 5.0% with BOE off 5.3%. PLS fell 1.5% and gold miners also on the seller's lists. NST down 3.3% and NEM off 3.8%. AWC had a nasty day down 3.3%. Oil and gas unchanged. In corporate news, NUF sank 7.1% on falling profits and TRS fell 5.2% on a profit warning. NEU in a trading halt pending news on a drug trial. Nothing on the economic front today. Asian markets mixed with Japan up 0.6%. China down 1.3% and HK off 1.7%. 10-year yields steady at 4.26%. Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert market insights and manage your investments with confidence.Ready to invest in yourself? Join the Marcus Today community.

Speaker - Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy Q1 reporting season again showed an age-old pattern of beats vs heavily lowered expectations. For full year 2024, earnings projections in the US are unchanged ytd, and down a few percent in Europe. The downgrades to sellside analyst EPS expectations throughout the year are nothing unusual, they happen most of the time, without adverse equity market reaction, but we believe that it is important that they do not escalate, as then the market might not be able to look through them. Beneath the surface, there are three interesting trends, one being maintained, and two showing a rotation: 1. All the US earnings growth is still Mag-7 driven. Q1 was the 5th quarter in a row where, if Mag-7 contribution is taken out, the remaining 493 S&P500 constituents have shown outright negative yoy% EPS growth. This has been beneficial to our continued OW on Growth vs Value style, and OW large vs small caps, but the odds could be increasing that we might see some reversal. 2. European earnings are starting to do better vs the US, and that was one of the reasons why we upgraded Eurozone vs the US last quarter. We continue to believe that the region will at least hold its own vs the US, irrespective of the direction of the overall equity market. 3. Cyclical sector earnings are softening vs Defensives. For S&P500, median Cyclical EPS growth is now below Defensives, for the first time since Covid. This is one of the reasons why we argued in early April for a rotation into Defensives, especially into the Utilities and Real Estate sectors. From a top down perspective, we are particularly concerned about the earnings prospects of the Autos sector, rating it as UW. This podcast was recorded on 19 May 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4117650-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy After a terrible spell between Jan '23 and January of this year, where MSCI China lost almost 40%, it is now up 25% from the lows. While we do not believe that the longer term structural concerns of deflationary backdrop, real estate demand-supply imbalances, credit saturation and global decoupling are finished, our tactical view remains that the more positive China trading could last through summer, through July-August, until the US elections heat up in earnest. There is still an EM investor underweight on China, and the valuations probably have another 10-15% upside before closing the discount to historical. A more bullish tactical China stance was one of the drivers of our upgrade of Eurozone equities in Q1. We continue to believe that Eurozone risk-reward has improved, and that the region will at least hold its own vs the US, whether the overall market goes up or down. UK (OW) is also starting to trade better of late, erasing the almost 10% relative weakness seen earlier in the year. At sector level, we think commodities remain interesting as a way to position for more positive China trading, both Mining and Energy. We are less positive on some of other traditional China plays, such as Autos (UW) and Luxury (N). Pricing is a significant risk for both, as well as a potential volume disappointment, leaving their elevated margins at risk. More broadly, at sector level we have been arguing that Defensives should start to trade better, last month Real Estate, Utilities, Staples and Healthcare are top 4 sectors in Europe. Now, more positive tactical China call is clearly a big help for EM group, but we do not believe EM is a buy vs DM. The headwinds for EM remain Fed higher for longer, and stronger USD. EM equities typically struggle to outperform DM when their currencies are under pressure. This podcast was recorded on 12 May 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4696703-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy The bulk of the equity performance so far this year, and indeed in the past 18 months, was driven by multiple expansion. Globally, 12m forward earnings are up only 7% from the lows, in contrast to nearly 30% P/E upmove. 2024 EPS projections are again down small in the US ytd, and are more meaningfully lower in Europe. At the same time, bond yields are higher, squeezing ERPs. Global earnings yield vs bond yield differential has been moving lower, to be now below 2007 levels. Central banks are set to deliver some cuts in 2H, but in order to justify current equity valuations, we believe that we will need to see at least some earnings acceleration, as well. Ultimately, equity valuations will end up responding to earnings momentum trends, as there is a clear historical correlation between P/E multiples and earnings revisions. IBES is projecting a sequential pickup in earnings growth between 2023 and 2026, but our concern is that profit growth could underwhelm. If the earnings acceleration fails to materialize, this could act as a constraint, in particular for Cyclical sectors, which are currently trading at price and P/E relative highs vs Defensives. Regionally, China equities showed no rerating over the past 18 months, still trading around 9x forward, which is at absolute and relative lows. Eurozone trailing buybacks yield is at present quite close to US. At the same time, Eurozone dividend yield at 3.0% is much higher than US at 1.3%, and bond yields are meaningfully lower – with these three together resulting in a much better total equity yield vs bond yield for Eurozone equities than for the US, of 240bp – we closed US vs Eurozone OW last week.   This podcast was recorded on 25 March 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4651219-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy We favoured Growth over Value style through last year, and again so far ytd, arguing that the Nov-Dec Value rally – such as an outperformance of BKX and of small caps seen at the time – was unlikely to last. There is a clear concern over how sustainable the Mag -7 run is, but we note that this group of stocks is not trading increasingly more expensive, at least not in relative terms. In fact, Mag-7 stocks appear cheaper at present vs the rest of the market than they were trading on average in the past five years. Admittedly, in absolute terms, there appears to be an excess, and Mag-7 could see earnings disappointments as well, proving to be more cyclical. More broadly, Growth style is also supported by the continued better earnings delivery vs Value, and this is the reason we keep the Growth style preference. Where valuations are becoming stretched is in Cyclical sector groups, with European Cyclicals trading at more than one standard deviation expensive vs Defensives. Cyclicals in general are at price relative highs vs Defensives, as high as in '09-'10, when the synchronized global recovery did materialize. Such an acceleration might be the wrong template this time around. The link between Cyclicals/Defensives earnings and indicators such as IFO remains strong, with IFO leading, and it suggests that Cyclicals earnings are set to soften over the next few quarters, in contrast to the consensus calling for an acceleration. In addition, bond yields are set to inflect lower again, we called in March Chartbook last week for a return to the long duration trade, and this could take out some relative support from Cyclicals. This podcast was recorded on 10 March 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4644737-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

ASX 200 fell 56 points bouncing off 7500 to close at 7538 (-0.7%). Results and broker talk dominated again with a negative lead from Wall Street colouring the landscape. Banks under pressure following CBA results showing NIM remains under pressure CBA fell 1.7% well off lows. The Big Bank Basket down 1.6% with CBA in profit-taking mode post results, WBC off 1.8% and MQG falling 0.2% but could have been worse. Other money managers eased, CGF slipped 0.8% on broker comments. Insurers fell slightly, QBE off 1.2% ahead of results. REITs saw sellers, SCG off 1.6% and SGP down 1.7%. Healthcare under pressure as CSL slipped 0.7% with RMD down 0.5%. Tech also down, WTC off 1.6% and REA down 0.8%. SEK results and comments saw selling down 5.2% with the All-Tech Index down 0.7%. Industrials mixed, Defensives held but retailers suffered. TPW rose 2.9% on good numbers. Resources were once again under pressure as commodities slipped, BHP down 0.8% and FMG falling hard down 2.1%. Lithium stocks a little depressed, PLS off 0.9% and MIN down 1.0% but some, SYA and CXO, seeing good bottom fishing. Gold miners eased, NST down 3.3% as bullion fell in USD. Oil and gas unchanged, Coal eased. In corporate news, AMP rose 10.3% on better than expected numbers and outlook, GNC got smashed 12.3% on guidance halved, FBU returned and no good news. DOW added 11.1% as the turnaround continues, IEL up 8.3% on better numbers. SVW also a winner from results up 7.0%. In economic news, all quiet. Some Asian markets back from NY, HK up 0.2% and Japan off 0.9%. 10Y yields up to 4.28%. Dow Futures down 16 points. NASDAQ Futures up 12 points.  Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and research and become a better investor.Make life simple. Invest with Marcus Today.

Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA - Head of Global Equity Strategy   For Q4 results, the activity momentum has generally decelerated in the quarter, which calls for a sequential weakness in earnings delivery. The good news is that the hurdle rate has come down aggressively, for S&P500 from 10% to only 2% yoy. Given this, the actual results are likely to yet again beat the much lowered estimates. The problem is that the market really needs some net earnings upgrades to advance from current levels, not just the beats vs heavily lowered projections, in our view. This is because the sentiment and positioning is stretched, valuation multiples have rerated, and the key driver of the Q4 rally, the move lower in bond yields, is likely over for the time being. Big picture, 2024 EPS projections keep coming down, in most regions. This is unlikely to change, we see risks to both pricing and to volumes for this year, in addition to what is generally a tough hurdle rate for most corporates - profit margins are elevated vs typical. At subsector level, Semis, Autos and Banks margins are at record highs, and could weaken. Chemicals margins are subdued, but we fear they could stay weak - we keep our long held UW view on the Chemicals sector. In aggregate, COVID distortions appear to have benefited Cyclicals more than the Defensives, and this is where the unwind could happen. We stay OW Growth vs Value, continuing last year's style preference, keep OW US vs Eurozone, and believe that Defensives are set to perform better this year.   This podcast was recorded on 21 January 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4604423-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy The question is whether the move lower in bond yields is over for the time being, and can it resume further down the line without a clear bout of activity weakness materializing? We called last October to position for the rollover in bond yields, but post the sharp fall of 100bp in 3 months, a pause is likely. Central banks rate projections have already moved substantially, now pricing in a cumulative 150-170bp of cuts by the Fed and ECB over the next 12 months, and markets digested a raft of benign inflation prints. Big picture, we believe that the long duration call will stay relevant for 2024, but the near-term stabilization could happen due to the exhaustion in negative convexity impact, on potentially more longer-dated government bond issuance, and along with likely some more mixed inflation prints ahead. We are unlikely to see another leg lower in bond yields near term unless or until there is a clear deterioration in activity dataflow. Now, what could be the implications of this for equity markets? In November and December equities took the fall in bond yields as an overwhelming positive, fueling a risk-on market rebound. Cyclicals outperformed Defensives, with the exception of Real Estate and Utilities; however, the typical defensive bond proxies significantly lagged. If yields stall near term, this likely stalls the rally too, and crucially we do not expect that the decidedly one-sided interpretation of why bond yields have fallen will continue. This is especially if we do see some weakening in consumer dataflow, which was solid to date – most recently US ISM services employment component fell sharply. If the consumer setup changes, then Defensive names could have a catchup, especially as their valuations vs Cyclicals are now attractive, and as Cyclicals have moved further away from activity dataflow. We note that Healthcare, Telecoms and Staples have started the year on a stronger note in both the US and in Europe, and we expect this to continue. This podcast was recorded on 14 January 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4600086-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Gl2T9d The market is up over 10% in just twenty trading days, a 99th percentile move if there ever was one. The rally has brought along lower-quality equities and higher-quality ones, and financials, in particular, are surprisingly strong. Defensives are not as strong (consumer staples, utilities) as more cyclical or high beta sectors, but they are hanging in there. The dollar has dropped, and the Yen has rallied in the last few weeks, causing many currency traders to say, “Wait, it wasn't supposed to do that?” Markets were pretty boring again today (though to the upside), and bond yields continued their decline. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy After a prolonged spell of weakness, at first driven by the inflation and bond yields spike last year, and then this year by macro recovery trade, certain Defensives are starting to trade a bit better of late. We think that Defensives could catch a more sustained bid if: 1. Bond yields could be in the process of peaking out, we reiterate the call from last month that one should go long duration. If the turn lower in bond yields is confirmed, on the Fed being done, a continued move down in inflation, but also on softer activity indicators, as seen in disappointing PMIs, then a range of Defensives should benefit. There is a clear link between bond yields and Utilities. Long bonds have lost half of their value over the past 3 years, as did Utilities relative, and that could be turning. Now, even if bond yields ramp up further, the trade might be on. Any break in yields above 5% will, in our view, be taken negatively by the market. In that scenario, Defensives might not behave as they did in August-September, when they underperformed against the backdrop of rising yields, but could be seen more as a traditional low beta part of the falling overall market. 2. Global output PMIs have been weakening for 5 months now, both manufacturing as well as services, and the risk is of a move into outright contraction. Money supply trends suggest that there could be more downside. 3. Earnings of Cyclical sectors are elevated vs Defensives, and are showing signs of a turn. In the latest reporting season, Cyclicals - Discretionary & Industrials had the most profit warnings, and Utilities the least. 4. Valuations of Defensives are not demanding anymore, having de-rated from outright expensive territory to fair value currently. Within Defensives, we have a preference for Utilities (OW), Telecoms (OW) and Staples (OW), and have recently upgraded Healthcare and Real Estate post the big spell of weakness. This podcast was recorded on 12 November 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4560156-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

We reiterate our call from October that bond yields are likely in the process of peaking during Q4, and that one should go long duration. As this view gets confirmation, it is in the short term interpreted by investors as a knee-jerk positive for equities, especially after some derisking that took place in the past months. Having said that, we believe that equities will soon revert back to an unattractive risk-reward into year end. This is especially if 2024 earnings projections start to reset lower. We think that pricing power is waning, profit margins are at risk and the slowdown in topline growth is set to continue. Money supply in the US and Europe keeps contracting. Labour markets are lagging indicators, and could weaken abruptly – continued ytd strength doesn't mean anything for the next 6-12 months. Within this, we have recently advised to tactically close the shorts on China, given fresh stimulus and an already weak ytd performance – this was behind our call to close the shorts on Miners. If bond yields are rolling over, as we suspect, Defensives will get a tailwind, such as Utilities and Staples. We also reiterate our upgrade of Real Estate, done in September, after 2 years of an UW stance. Finally, we have last week cut European Banks to UW. They had a very strong run again ytd, and will likely have a headwind if yields start moving lower.   This podcast was recorded on 05 November 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at http://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4553659-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy   In addition to the move up in energy prices and elevated bond yields, renewed USD strength is another factor that the equity market needs to digest. Last October, USD peak coincided with the equity trough, and the more mixed equity performance in the past few months is coinciding with USD bottoming. Almost always in the past, when USD is strengthening, global equities have been under pressure. Our FX team is bullish on the USD over the next 3-6 months, vs all major crosses. If that comes to pass, equities in general could stay under pressure. Regionally, a stronger USD has typically meant the outperformance of Japan, Switzerland and the UK, in local currency, given their large export exposures. When assessing the performances in common currency, US equities are the top performers in times of USD strength, even with a headwind to the exporters, and Japan stays the outperformer, in the regional context. EM is an underperformer, and it is Eurozone that moves to the bottom of the pecking order. EM are lagging DM this year by 10%+, and from our equity strategy perspective, we remain cautious on EM. Broadly, in terms of sector tilts, we continue advising a barbell of commodities – OW Energy – together with a low beta exposure, such as Staples and Utilities, and that could track even if bond yields keep going higher in the near term. European Healthcare could be interesting, as well, as it tended to work well with a strong USD. Thematically, we maintain our longstanding preference for FTSE100 over FTSE250 that we initiated in November '21. In terms of equity market levels, our index target of 4150 for SX5E has not changed over the last 12 months, since it was initiated. Stocks are at present below it, but we expect continued undershooting of the targets in the near term. This podcast was recorded on 22 October 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4540044-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

In this episode, Ian and Robert discuss:Bonds: why are bonds selling off and what does this mean for other asset classes?Hard landing: what is the likelihood of a harder landing and what does this mean for portfolio construction?Defensive asset classes: what has been a defensive asset class so far this year and do you expect this to change?

Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy   In terms of a move in bond yields, we believe that we are currently in a transition phase, rising bond yields at these levels are problematic for investor sentiment and for the economy, and are therefore ultimately not sustainable. Bonds RSI is becoming oversold and at some point soon this should morph into pricing in of a policy mistake, where bond yields are likely to start to move lower. Brent rally does mechanically imply that PPIs, as well as CPIs, could inflect higher again. That said, unlike the 2021-2022 episode, where bond yields and oil were moving up together for some time in order to reflect the economies reopening, and where the consumer at the time was accepting of rising prices, given pent-up demand and a strong post-COVID liquidity position, the recent oil rally was mostly for supply reasons. This could lead to demand destruction, and be deflationary, rather than inflationary. Looking at the past eight Fed tightening cycles, post the final hike, bond yields were down each time, by 100bp on average, irrespective of whether recession or soft landing followed. If bond yields roll over, will it help equity valuations? Not if yields are peaking at a time when earnings, and the broader economy, start to disappoint. In terms of sector leadership, we note that post the last Fed hike, the sector tilts would turn broadly Defensive, on a 6- to 12-month horizon, both in the US and in Europe, with Insurance, Staples and Utilities ahead. Another implication, apart from the likely Defensives rebound, would be to go UW Banks. Banks are well capitalized, show strong earnings trends, and have been the best performer in Europe over the last 6 months, given the higher for longer narrative, but could start to lag if/when bond yields peak out, especially if their NII income rolls, along with the potential credit backdrop worsening.   This podcast was recorded on 08 October 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4529073-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

With the economy late in its current cycle, early-cycle performers such as consumer and housing stocks are underperforming while energy and industrials should continue to outperform.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Officer and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the latest trends in the financial marketplace. It's Monday, September 25th at 11am in New York. So let's get after it. Since mid-July, stocks have taken on a different personality. As we've previously noted, second quarter earnings season proved to be a "sell the news event" with the day after reporting stock performance as poor as we've witnessed in over a decade. In retrospect, this makes sense given weakening earnings quality and negative year over year growth for many industry groups, coupled with the strong price run up in the mid-July which extended valuations. Those valuations continue to look elevated at 18-times earnings, especially given the recent further rise in interest rates and signs from the Fed that it may be adopting a higher for longer posture. On that score, the real rate equity return correlation has fallen further into negative territory, signaling that interest rates are an increasingly important determinant of equity performance. Furthermore, one could argue that the post-Fed-meeting response from equity markets was outsized for the rate move we experienced. One potential explanation for this dynamic is that the equity market is beginning to question the higher for longer backdrop in the context of a macro environment that looks more late-cycle than mid-cycle. As discussed over the past several weeks, equity market internals have been supportive of the notion that we're in a late cycle backdrop with high quality balance sheet factors outperforming. Defensives have also resumed their outperformance, while cyclicals have underperformed. The value factor has been further aided by strong performance from the energy sector, while growth has underperformed recently due to higher interest rates. Given our relative preference for defensives, we looked at valuations across these sectors. In terms of absolute multiples, utilities trade the cheapest at 16 times earnings, while staples trade the richest at 19 times. That said, relative to the market in history, utilities and staples still look the cheapest, both are at the bottom quartile of the historical relative valuation levels, while health care relative valuation is a bit more elevated, but still in the bottom 50% of historical relative valuation levels. Overall valuations remain undemanding for defensive sectors in stocks, which is why we like them. To the contrary, the technicals and breadth for consumer discretionary stocks look particularly challenged right now. We believe this price action is reflecting slower consumer spending trends, student loan payments resuming, rising delinquencies in certain household cohorts, higher gas prices and weakening demand and data in the housing sector. Our economists who avoided making the recession call earlier this year when it was a consensus view see a weakening consumer spending backdrop from here. Specifically, they forecast negative real personal consumption expenditure growth in the fourth quarter and a muted recovery thereafter. Meanwhile, travel and leisure has been a bright spot for consumption, but that dynamic may now be changing to some extent. As evidence, our most recent AlphaWise survey shows that consumers want to keep traveling and 58% of respondents are planning to travel over the next six months. However, net spending plans for international travel declined from 0% last month to -8% this month, indicating consumers are planning fewer overseas trips. Domestic travel plans without a flight move higher. This indicates that consumers want to keep traveling, but are increasingly looking to taking cheaper trips and are choosing destinations to which they can either drive or take a train, rather than fly which is more expensive. All these dynamics fit well with our late cycle playbook. In our view, investors may want to avoid rotating into early cycle winners like consumer cyclicals, housing related and interest rate sensitive sectors and small caps. Instead, a barbell of large cap defensive growth with late cycle cyclical winners like energy and industrials should continue to outperform as it has for the past month. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us on the Apple Podcast app. It helps for people to find the show.

Speaker - Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy As inflation rates are moving lower, taking out last year's spike, the question is what the impact of this will be on corporate profitability. After all, instead of being hurt from higher input costs, it appears that most companies benefitted over the past two years, due to better mix and stronger pricing. European topline growth was a very high 14% in 2021, and as much as 24% in 2022, compared to historical median of 6%. 2022 EBIT margins for Europe are 330bp above 2019 levels. Defensives such as Healthcare, Staples and Utilities are the only sectors that are lower. There is a risk of reversal, especially if final demand stalls, potentially if PMI softness continues, and as supply chains have normalized. There is a very strong correlation between PPIs and global earnings delivery. Now, the latest oil rally could mechanically lead to stronger PPIs again. Historically though, when Brent moved up due to supply constraints, topline and margins of other sectors would not benefit, there would be demand destruction. Pent-up demand is behind us, as well as the ample post-COVID consumer liquidity, companies might not be in a position to pass on rising input costs as easily any more. In the report, we assess sectoral impacts, together with our analysts. We find a number of sectors to be at risk of a reversal in pricing power, such as Food and General Retail, Autos, Semis, Hotels, Airlines, Luxury/Sporting Goods and Construction Materials. On the other side, Insurance, Staples, Healthcare and Utilities could be less affected. Big picture, we see the Growth-Policy tradeoff as challenging into year-end. This is especially as the market is pricing in a no-landing scenario, with VIX at lows, credit spreads tight, and, until recently, a big rally in Cyclicals, but on the other side, the market expects 80bp of easing in 2H of next year, just ahead of US elections. This is an unlikely combination. We believe that Defensives will be having a bid into year end. We reiterate last week's closing of two years' worth of shorts in Real Estate, and advise tactically less negative call on China and on commodities – Mining (N) and Energy (OW), as they did poorly in 1H – CSI to bounce vs SPX and SX5E.   This podcast was recorded on 25 September 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4519132-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

Speaker - Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy China is the worst performing equity market ytd, out of larger EMs and DMs, down 6%, and 20% below January highs. At the same time, fresh stimulus newsflow is coming through and the Chinese-related indices could be due a bounce. Should one position for this? The new support measures might stabilize Chinese growth momentum, close to the 5% target, but could end up insufficient in helping drive any sustained upside. We note CNY is making fresh multi-year lows. Structural concerns remain significant, with the lack of confidence by the private sector, and the adjustment in real estate continuing. Demographics is a constraint; fiscal and monetary space to act is limited; and the risk of Japanese-style stagnation remains real, with a housing double dip the base case. We have been cautious on China over the past months, advising to fade stimulus-driven bounces. Our worry is that any rally might end up short-lived, and not lead to sustained medium-term gains, unless the real estate overhang reduces. With respect to the broader EM, EMs are this year underperforming DM by 11%, and even if one is to look at DM ex US, or EM ex China, EMs are struggling this year. While the Fed is likely to stop tightening, it could stay higher for longer. The EM FX index is making fresh lows. If USD keeps getting stronger, as we suspect, this was never a good backdrop for EM. In our global equity regional allocation, we stay cautious on EM vs DM. The EM basket has underperformed European indices ytd, and we stay away from it. Within it, while we are cautious on Miners, we note that they have already performed quite poorly, and, together with Energy which we are OW, can offer better relative value. In contrast, Luxury, Capital Goods, Autos and Semis did well in 1H, but are starting to stall, and there could be further weakness ahead. Defensives to work.   This podcast was recorded on 10 September 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4509399-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

While valuations may be on the rise, fears around the resiliency of the economy could return and leave unguarded investors on uneven footing.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Chief investment Officer and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the latest trends in the financial marketplace. It's Tuesday, September 5th at 10 a.m. in New York. So let's get after it. In a world of price momentum, opinions about the fundamentals are often driven by the direction of price. Some of this is due to the view that markets are all knowing and often the best leading indicator for the fundamentals. After all, stocks are discounting machines and tell us what's likely to happen in the future rather than what is happening today. The old adage "buy the rumor and sell the news", is another way to think about this relationship. Using this philosophy, the move higher in stocks this year has provided the confidence for many to turn fundamentally bullish from what was an overly bearish consensus backdrop in the first quarter. The entire move in the major U.S. equity averages this year has been the result of higher valuations. However, with forward price earnings multiples reaching 20 times on the S&P 500 last month, not only are stocks anticipating higher earnings and growth, but they now require it. The other reason price momentum works has little to do with the fundamental outlook. Instead, price momentum often leads investors to chase or sell that momentum. It's human nature to want to go with the trend both up and down. Most were too negative on the economy at the beginning of the year, including us. The failure of a few large regional banks and negative price reaction in the stock market reinforced that view. However, when the recession didn't arrive, there was a fundamental reason to reverse that view. The price action in April and May supported that pivot, further feeding the bullish narrative. However, the move in price was very narrow, led by just a handful of Mega-cap growth stocks. In June, breadth improved, dragging investor confidence toward the optimistic fundamental outcome. But since then, breath has rolled over again and remains weak. We recommend maintaining a late cycle mindset, which means a barbell of growth stocks and defensive, not cyclicals or smaller stocks. Going into the second quarter earnings season we suggested it would be a "sell the news event", mainly because stocks had rallied in the mid-July, which was a change from the past several quarters where stocks trended weaker into results. Now that earnings season is over, we know that the price reaction post reporting was some of the weakest we've witnessed in the past decade. We think stocks may be starting to question the sustainability of the economic resiliency we experienced in the first half of the year. Defensives and growth stocks have done better than cyclicals. As an aside, the earnings results have not kept pace with the economy this year outside of a few areas which have been driven mostly by cost cutting rather than top line growth which furthers the idea we are still late cycle, not early or mid. This past week, equity prices have rebounded sharply, led once again by growth stocks. With softer economic data weighing on Treasury yields, stock market participants seem willing to bid valuations back up on the view the late cycle environment is being extended once again. With inadequate evidence to affirm or contradict that view, price continues to be the governing factor for many investors' conclusions about where we are in the cycle. Bottom line price momentum is a key driver of sentiment, especially in a late cycle environment when uncertainty about the outcome is high. We continue to recommend a more defensive growth posture in one's portfolio given that the fears of recession or financial distress could return at any moment in the late cycle environment in which we find ourselves, particularly as we enter September. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us on the Apple Podcast app. It help's more people to find the show.

Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy Compared to the start of the year, clearly investor expectations, market positioning and the equity valuations have moved up. Recession projections have been erased, there is no more fear, only complacency. While positioning was rather cautious at the turn of the year, many indicators point to significant investor involvement currently. SPX P/E has moved from 17x in January to 19x forward at present. Even ex Tech, multiples have rerated. Relative to this optimism, it is not clear to us that the Growth-Policy tradeoff has materially improved. China continues to disappoint, we believe one should keep fading any stimulus-induced bounces, and Europe has also lost momentum, especially since May, coinciding with our downgrade. On the inflation/policy front, it is likely easier for inflation to move down from say 10% to 5%, but the move from 5% to 2% becomes incrementally harder. Central banks could stay higher for longer, which would limit any prospect for multiple expansion, and the market would then need to solely rely on earnings growth for upside. On earnings, we note that full-year EPS projections are not inflecting meaningfully higher, current PMIs are consistent with continued earnings downgrades. European equity indices have struggled to deliver gains for a while now. SX5E is currently at the same levels it held in February, it didn't advance for 6 months. Despite this, we do not see any upside from here into year end, and we reiterate our year-end targets that we first unveiled last December, of 4150 for SX5E. This offers only marginal downside from current levels, but we think there is a good chance that equity markets move meaningfully below our year-end projections in the interim. In terms of key positioning, we were OW Growth vs Value this year, but the Tech run is becoming heavy, so we think that pure Defensives look the best into year end, in addition to the Energy sector.   This podcast was recorded on 20 August 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4493429-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Speaker - Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy The market is increasingly confident that the weak parts of the economy are set to improve, and that the good parts will stay resilient. In a sense, bad is seen as good: “China dataflow is so weak that there must be stimulus, manufacturing PMIs are so weak that they are bound to rebound”. This is producing an interesting divergence in the performance of Cyclicals vs Defensive stocks and the activity dataflow. Compared to a year ago, Cyclicals are up vs Defensives by 20% in Europe and in the US, but manufacturing PMIs and ISM are in contraction territory. Which one will end up right? There was another period when the divergence like this opened up – in 2007, with Cyclicals rallying despite manufacturing activity weakness, and Fed was then also at 5.25%, with the belief that they needed to do more, the same as now. Fundamentally, we think that bond yields will move back down, pricing power is waning, PMIs could indeed converge, but with services coming down towards manufacturing in 2H, as M1 suggests, rather than the other way around, and the hopes of a swift and meaningful China stimulus could remain just that, hopes. The market needs to resolve a basic disconnect: how will the Fed pivot if there is no pain? Bull-Bear has moved into positive territory, Vix is near record low and positioning has increased, there is no more safety net, FOMO is in full swing. Keep UW Eurozone in regional allocation, stay cautious on China, Japan remains our regional OW for this year. Preference for Growth over Value should remain a winning strategy in 2H. This podcast was recorded on 02 July 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4450902-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy We believe that the broadening in market leadership that was seen at some points this month is unlikely to have legs, as we don't expect bond yields to move higher, especially not for the right reasons. Cracks in the labour market are emerging, manufacturing PMIs are not converging with services, as consensus was expecting; in fact the opposite appears to be happening, and any China stimulus might end up underwhelming – sell the news. We keep OW Growth vs Value style, and think that pure Defensives could catch a bid – Staples, Utilities and Healthcare, given our projection of falling bond yields in 2H, risk of weaker PMIs and challenging EPS revisions. EPS revisions for S&P500 have finally moved positive for some weeks, the first time since last summer, but any continued improvement will be at odds with a potentially weakening labour market. The claims indicator last week entered into bearish territory. Also, one typically needs composite PMIs above 53-54 in Eurozone for sustained EPS upgrades, but that might be lacking. Manufacturing PMIs are unlikely to bounce much if one considers M1 leading indicators, and the services PMIs are at risk of rolling over, too. This would be reinforced if the labour market is turning, as this could undermine the so far resilient final demand picture, and lead to more destocking. Regionally, we think the trade of OW UK or OW Switzerland vs UW Eurozone should be put on in 2H, we reiterate our downgrade of Eurozone to UW from last month.   This podcast was recorded on 26 June 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at http://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4445719-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

The ASX 200bounced back after sliding to a two-month low during trade closing up 20 points to 7111 (+0.3%), as sentiment improved after the House of Representatives passed the bill to raise the debt ceiling with bipartisan support. Resources and base metals clawing back gains from yesterday's losses, BHP +0.1%, RIO +0.4% and FMG up 0.8%. Lithium mixed, but mostly down MIN down 3.6% and PLS down 1.6%. Gold miners are today's winners as the likelihood of another Fed rate hike increases. NST 3.1%, NCM 2.4%, EVN 0.6%. Financials showing modest gains, with the Big Bank Basket down to $166.17 (-0.1%), CBA, flat WBC off 0.4% and NAB up 0.3%. Tech stocks didn't stay down for long, with the All-Tech Index up 0.7%, SQ2 +2.3% XRO +1.9% and WTC +0.9%. Industrials were mixed and uninspiring, ALL rose 1.3%, SEK up 0.6% and REA off 2.0%. Defensives did ok with WOW and COL up. Energy sector up 0.4%, despite oil dropping for a third consecutive session. In corporate news, NMT jumped 21.9% after providing an update on its joint venture for lithium-ion battery recycling. LGL rose 16.1% after raising full-year guidance. AGY dropped 6.3% despite announcing that the Rincon Lithium project is now partially operational. In economic news, Australian retail sales were unchanged at $35.3bn in April, indicating that retail has hit a plateau. Caixin China's general manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 50.9 in May from 49.5 in the previous month, while exceeding consensus, the latest results highlights the patchy economic recovery amid insufficient demand and deflation risks. Asian markets are up, Japan's Nikkei rises on bargain hunters up 0.9% and HK up 0.6% with China up 0.3%. Australia 10Y yield up 3.62%. Dow Jones futures down 21 points and Nasdaq futures down 11 points. Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and research and become a better investor. Make life simple. Invest with Marcus Today.

We talk defense in this episode with Coach Blatch. We discuss man, buzz defense, triangle and 2 and also the art of blending and disguising defenses. Coach talks about the purpose of each defense, where it fits within his gameplan and how to use them when the time is right. We also discuss communication and preparation as it relates to practicing and refining the defense. If you love defense then check this out!

A Reigny start to the challenge cup has Kyle and Jeremy back to basics. Defensives struggles and a look forward to the wave on saturday fill out the epsisode!

A SILEX Equity podcast by Vincent Rennella, Head of Equity Strategy at SILEX -  Recorded: 12/04/2023   

ASX 200 fell 47 points to 6969 (-0.7%) but steady at lower levels as we await the US and European markets. Resources in a funk with BHP off 0.8% and MIN down 2.9%. The Lithium and battery material stocks cratered hard, PLS down 4.7%, CXO off 3.8% and AKE down 4.3%. Rare earths also remain under pressure with LYC down 3.2% and ARU off 7.9%. Gold miners were firm but unspectacular despite bullion heading higher. NCM up 1.1% and NST rallying 2.0%. Oil and gas stocks eased back and coal not such a merry old soul as WHC fell 2.8%. Banks were weaker but no great dramas, the Big Bank Basket dropped to $168.75 (-0.4%). MQG back in the doghouse down 1.8% and wealth managers falling away again, MFG down 3.9% and IFL off 2.8%. Insurers weaker, QBE down 1.6%. Industrials were mixed. Defensives in staples doing ok, WES up 0.2% and WOW up 0.1% with BXB doing well up 0.8%. REITs eased back, tech down with XRO off 0.9% and NXT off 1.6%. Healthcare mixed, COH off 2.3% and RMD down 1.2%. In corporate news, BKW results helped the stock rally 3.1%, SOL lifted its dividend by 24% and WBT revealed a cash call and an SPP at 500c. SIG reported an increase in revenue of 6.2%. Nothing on the economic front. Asian market mixed, China and HK better but Japan slightly lower. 10-year yields eased to 3.31%. Dow futures up 141 points. NASDAQ futures up 60 points.Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and research and become a better investor.

Speaker: Mislav Matejka, Head of Global Equity Strategy   We stick to our call that Q1 will likely end up the high point for stocks this year. While parts of the market look short term oversold, and there could be potential relief bounces, we advise to use these to sell into. It is unlikely that we will have a fundamental low reached until the Fed is well advanced with rate cuts. We argued three weeks ago that the next trade is likely to go UW Value, and that one should be defensive in portfolio allocation. Fundamentally, this call is predicated on the view that bond yields will be moving lower, in effect marking a double-top for the US 10-year yield at ~4%, along with a likely end of PMI rebound soon, as the impact of past policy tightening starts to take full effect, and the positive offsets, such as the cushion of COVID savings for consumers, erode. March PMIs could still be sequentially higher, continuing the streak from November of an improvement driven by gas price fall and China reopening, but that could be nearing the peak. Money supply trends point to renewed weakness in PMIs in 2H. The yield curve is likely to be proven right, as every single time in the past. Even if one were to believe that yield curve will stop flattening, perhaps as central banks pause, if the Fed were to pass on a hike this week for example, this might not be a helpful sign. After all, the curve would typically begin to steepen just ahead of a recession starting. From the point of maximum curve inversion to the start of recession, the sector leadership would be dominated by low beta bond-proxy defensives, and Banks in particular tended to perform poorly. Central banks could keep their “higher for longer” mantra. Labour markets and inflation continue to be some of the most lagging indicators of the cycle, and as inflation stays elevated, the pain threshold for the Fed might be higher this time around than what investors would hope for – the market could be increasingly pricing in a policy mistake. Banks and Cyclicals performed strongly in the past few quarters, and even post last week's correction are still elevated. It is not clear that Cyclicals enjoy valuation support vs Defensives anymore, and their earnings will be more sensitive to potential consumer and corporate disappointments ahead.   This podcast was recorded on 19 March 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4363473-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

Speaker: Mislav Matejka, CFA, Head of Global Equity Strategy   UK equities have performed well last year, the best DM region, outright up in local currency, and beating the US by 12% in USD terms. The question is whether one should remain positive on UK stocks this year, especially in light of potentially weaker performance of Value style from here. After being bullish Value last year, our call is that Value style will not outperform Growth this year. So far ytd, MSCI Value over Growth is at 0% in Europe and -11% in the US. While Value style tailwind might not be there anymore, and possibly even China & commodities support could peter out by mid-year, we think there are other positives for UK stocks. These are primarily defensive plays, with lower than 1 beta to global equity direction, and lower than 1 beta to global PMIs movement. If Q1 proves to be the peak of the equity market for this year, as we believe, post the strong rally from October that we enjoyed, the UK could be a relative outperformer. The UK is the highest dividend yielding of the DMs, with 4.2% yield, and fully covered this time around, with payout ratios 10-15% below typical. We think there is a good chance that in 2H US 10-year bond yields move back lower, potentially aggressively lower, with further record yield curve inversion, which could make dividend yield pickup strategy very attractive. Also, the UK market still looks exceptionally cheap, at 10x forward EPS, in contrast to US at 18x - continuing to offer record discount. FX could stay a tailwind, where UKX derives 70% of topline from abroad. We have been OW UK in a regional portfolio since Nov '21, after 6 years of a bearish stance. The UK was our top regional pick in 2022, and we stay OW for this year, in a relative context. In particular, we think FTSE100 still looks better than S&P500. Within UK, we keep our long FTSE100 vs FTSE250 trade, which we opened in Nov '21. Certain domestic plays have seen a good relief bounce, but in general we think that the UK consumer is likely to struggle given the delayed impact of rising interest rates. House prices are at risk of softening, housing affordability has deteriorated rapidly and consumers have likely burned through the COVID excess savings. In terms of sectoral tilts, Defensives have lagged so far ytd. UK has a greater share of these than Eurozone/US, at 40%, and has been at a disadvantage. While we have been short Staples, Real Estate, and only Neutral Healthcare, we do think that Defensives are set to start performing much better, which will then become a tailwind for the UK market. This podcast was recorded on 12 March '23 This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4357060-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

ASX 200 slips 16 points to 7408 (0.2%). Narrow trading range with results dominating. Banks eased back ahead of CBA numbers later this week, the Big Bank Basket fell to $190.08 (0.6%). Insurers doing well, IAG jumped 4.5% on results. QBE up 1.3% and SUN up 1.5%. Fund managers under pressure and MQG slipping 0.6%. Industrials mixed with REA down 1.6% on broker downgrades, CAR 0.6% better on results, SEK off 1.5% and tech mixed, WTC up 0.6% and XJO down 1.4%. The All-Tech Index falling 0.9%. Defensives holding the line, WOW up 0.1% and TLS better by 0.7%. REITs rebounding with VCX up 1.0% and GPT up 0.7%. Healthcare down, RMD off 2.1% and RHC off 1.8% with CSL flat. Resources weaker but no huge moves, BHP down 0.3% and RIO off 0.2%. Energy stocks all better, WDS up 2.1% and STO rallying 1.7% with coal stocks also in demand as China gears up to take Australian coal again. WHC up 2.5% and YAL up 3.9%. In results, a big start to the week but losses seem to be the main reaction. SGR fell hard, 21.0% on more write offs on compliance, AZJ dropped 6.5% with LLC down too on results. JBH reported too following its sales update and warned of tougher times ahead, LYC answered questions on Malaysian regulatory risks. APX also fell hard on its own write-offs, down 15.4%. VIT had a good day charging 15.2% ahead on a presentation. EDV toasted better numbers rising 4.1% with AD8 also doing well up 10.0% on record revenue numbers. Nothing significant on the economic front but 10-year yields pushing higher again. Asian markets mixed, Mixed with Japan down 0.5%, HK down 0.5% and China up 0.6%. Dow futures down 105 points and NASDAQ futures down 57 points.Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and research and become a better investor.

Speaker: Mislav Matejka, Head of Global Equity Strategy. We believe that the current market rally will start fading as we move through Q1. The positive catalysts that we were highlighting from October, and which helped drive a rebound of as much as 27% for SX5E – peak in bond yields, in inflation and in USD, China reopening and more benign European gas prices – are now in the open. While January still offers favourable seasonals, and the current investor positioning is far from heavy, both of which support stocks for the time being, we believe that one should be using potential gains over the next weeks in order to reduce exposure. All Cyclicals performed very strongly, and all Defensives lagged over the past six months. In fact, Cyclicals vs Defensives unwound all the losses seen in the 1H of last year, back to highs. The market is behaving as if we were in an early cycle recovery phase, but the Fed has not even concluded hiking yet. Typically, this phase is seen only after a period of Fed cuts. We stick to our call from October that bond yields have likely peaked, and will still be flat/down in 1H, which typically helps Defensives. Also, Cyclicals appear to be pricing in the rebound in PMIs back to solid expansion territory in 1H, but our lead indicators point to more softness. Finally, earnings are likely to be challenged next. We maintained a bullish earnings view over the past two years, as the spike in PPIs was used by corporates as an opportunity to raise prices. Far from seeing a margin squeeze, profit margins improved significantly for most. This will change: we look for downside to earnings for Cyclicals, on weaker pricing. At some point in 2023, Cyclicals are likely to rally more sustainably, discounting a fundamental inflection point in PMIs and a bottoming out in earnings, along with a potentially clearer pivot by the Fed, but this is not yet, in our view.   This podcast was recorded on 16 January 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4307377-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Speaker: Mislav Matejka, Head of Global Equity Strategy. SX5E rebounded 23% during Q4, to last Friday high. Out of the key supports for the equity market, we called in October for a peak in bond yields, as we believed that the disinflation phase had already likely begun. In addition, we argued in November that China reopening was the next trade and for Europe specifically we called for natural gas prices to fall despite entering winter, as supply is ample. Now, while some of the above highlighted supports for the equity market are not by any means exhausted, a lot has repriced, and the market focus could turn to earnings, which are likely to be weaker, and that could contribute to market consolidation ahead. The peak in inflation, which we believe is very helpful to stabilize P/E multiples, will in turn end up as a negative for corporate profits, especially as earnings benefitted from strong pricing and mix post COVID-19. In addition, the recent better activity prints might not hold. Real M1, our lead indicator, is pointing to more PMI softness. Also, the disinflation path might not be smooth, and US politics, as well as the Fed, could deliver curveballs. Put together, we think the current rally will end up faded as we move through Q1. We advise taking some profits, to tactically reduce equity exposure. Big picture, we looked for regional convergence over the past year, and encouragingly Europe is now outperforming the US in both the local and common FX. Stay with this. We also keep long commodity equities on peaking USD, China reopening and low inventories. We believe that one should start fading the last six months of a Cyclical rebound, and add back to some Defensives that lagged – such as to Utilities, Healthcare and Telecoms, as bond yields, PMIs and EPS revisions are all more likely to be lower, than higher, in 1H. While at some point in 2023 Cyclicals should enjoy sustained bottoming out in PMIs and in EPS revisions, their recent rally could end up looking premature.   This podcast was recorded on 09 January 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4301171-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

2022 was an exceptional year for the equity markets. Economic growth declined and inflation skyrocketed which led to decline in equity valuations. As we enter 2023, hopes are high that this year will be better and free of disruptive surprises. Yet, the market appears to be pricing in an economic slowdown, and companies are continuing to lower their earnings forecasts for this year. How should investors then approach equity investing this year? Our research experts believe that Quality investing as an investment style will outperform going into 2023. The Next Generation theme of Energy Transition also looks promising.We speak with Cesare Valeggia, Senior Portfolio Manager Global Excellence Strategies and Chen Jiazhi, Head Next Generation Fund Management at Julius Baer, to find out more.

Since hitting a low in September, the S&P/ASX 200 has rebounded a whopping 12.3%. And while markets are typically forward-looking, there are still plenty of headwinds that could see our bourse head south.  So how can you protect your portfolio? Well, that's where defensives come in. Defensive stocks typically belong to sectors where there is consistent demand for products or services throughout the economic cycle - such as supermarkets and food suppliers, utility providers, and the myriad of healthcare services. It also includes stocks with long-term track records of delivering consistent earnings in the face of the many challenges the market (and world) may throw at them.   In this episode, Bell Direct's Grady Wulff makes her Buy Hold Sell debut alongside Firetrail Investment's Blake Henricks and Blackmore Capital's Marcus Bogdan for their analysis of three defensive darlings.  Plus, they also name their top defensive pick to arm investors' portfolios against any future falls to come.  Note: This episode was filmed on Wednesday 23rd November 2022. You can read an edited transcript below: https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-5-defensives-to-arm-portfolios-against-future-falls/   

ASX 200 fell another 81 points to 6475 (-1.2%) as September quarter ends in negativity. For the week, the index is down 100 points and for the quarter a mere 93 points. Some rebalancing taking place and nerves ahead of a long weekend in NSW and a week-long holiday in China. Banks well and truly in the doghouse today with the Big Bank Basket down to $162.95 (-2.4%). MQG continuing under pressure down 4.2% with insurers flat. Defensives in healthcare and industrials sold off, CSL down 0.6%, COH off 6.6% and PME being hit hard on profit taking down 5.6%. REITS eased, tech whacked WTC down 5.6% and XRO falling 4.3%. The All-Tech Index down big time following Nasdaq, off 3.1%. Industrials like TCL eased, BXB down 2.2% and TLS fell 0.8%. Resources though were a bright spot especially in the heavily sold off gold miners. NCM up 2.7% NST up 4.5% and SBM up 6.5%. BHP better too up 0.9% with RIO up 2.7%. Base metals and lithium stocks eased. In corporate news, CXO revealed a $100m placement, TGR recommended takeover scheme, Nick Falloon exits NEC and RBA meeting next week. TPG response to ACCC views. Nothing on the economic front but China data showed the economy is still failing to fire. Asian markets weaker slightly but Japan down over 2% . 10-year yields at 3.89%. Dow Futures down eight points.Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and research and become a better investor.

FANTASY FOOTBALL IS BACK!! Listen to Cade give his first set of rankings for the 2022 Fantasy Football season: Tight Ends, Defensives and Kickers!! Music is provided by Joshua Duphiney. Follow him on Instagram @joshua_duphiney

Thu, 21 Jul 2022 11:52:11 +0000 https://jungeanleger.podigee.io/282-wiener-borse-plausch-s275 a5fbd13cc8828e837b3aad91374cfaec Die Wiener Börse Pläusche sind ein Podcastprojekt von Christian Drastil Comm. Unter dem Motto „Market & Me“ berichtet Christian Drastil über das Tagesgeschehen an der Wiener Börse. In Folge S2/75 geht es um die Vorbereitung eines Reverse-Moves mit meiner Kollegin Allison. Neues von bank99, ein weiteres High im Rosinger-Index, Defensiv-Reaktionen von Marinomed und Valneva, AT&S und die Zahl 20.000 bzw.Lewandowski ist kein W(eh) und hat keine. Wer singt mit mir We´ve got Tonight am Ende der Folge https://boersenradio.at/page/podcast/3153/ ? Bewertungen machen Freude: https://podcasts.apple.com/at/podcast/christian-drastil-wiener-börse-sport-musik-und-mehr-my-life/id1484919130 bank99 mit neuen Produkten: https://bank99.at/kredit Die 2022er-Folgen vom Wiener Börse Plausch sind präsentiert von Wienerberger, CEO Heimo Scheuch hat sich im Q4 ebenfalls unter die Podcaster gemischt: https://open.spotify.com/show/5D4Gz8bpAYNAI6tg7H695E. Co-Presenter im Juli ist bank99, da werden wir im Monatsverlauf einiges bringen. Der Theme-Song, der eigentlich schon aus dem Jänner stammt und spontan von der Rosinger Group supportet wurde: Sound & Lyrics unterhttp://www.boersenradio.at/page/podcast/2734 . Risikohinweis: Die hier veröffentlichten Gedanken sind weder als Empfehlung noch als ein Angebot oder eine Aufforderung zum An- oder Verkauf von Finanzinstrumenten zu verstehen und sollen auch nicht so verstanden werden. Sie stellen lediglich die persönliche Meinung der Podcastmacher dar. Der Ha del mit Finanzprodukten unterliegt einem Risiko. Sie können Ihr eingesetztes Kapital verlieren. 282 full no Christian Drastil Comm.

Earnings released from January to March this year has just wrapped up with somewhat of mixed results. How should investors strategize their portfolio amidst all the volatility in the market from escalating costs of operation and materials from the Ukraine war, oil and gas price volatility. Imran Yusof, Head of MIDR Research breaks down the details for us. Image credit: Shutterstock.com

 The ASX 200 closed up 20 points to 7113 (0.3%) in cautious trade after RBA minutes sapped some buying. News that Shanghai is beginning to reopen was good for Asian markets and resources with BHP leading iron ore stocks higher up by 0.6%. FMG rallied 2.3% and lithium stocks back in demand with AKE up 5.5% and PLS rising 5.0%. Base metals were also good with S32 up 1.6% and IGO making a move 2.7% higher. Energy stocks in demand as oil prices remain elevated, STO up 2.0% and WPL up 2.0% with KAR up 3.7%. Banks were firm again as bond yields rose to 3.44%. The Big Bank Basket was up 1.1% at $186.67. CBA up 1.7% and NAB doing well up 0.5%. MQG bounced too today up 0.5% with insurers solid. Healthcare was in the casualty ward today with CSL down 1.2% leading RHC down 1.5% and RMD off 2.6%. Industrials were mixed and uninspiring, GMG fell 4.1% after some broker downgrades, ALL slipped 1.4%, SEK down 4.3% and REA off 4.5%. Defensives did ok with WOW and COL up. Tech was mixed with CPU up 1.6% and XRO off 1.6% with WTC down 1.7% with the All Tech Index down 1.4%. In corporate news, BXB slid 7.6% after CVC walked off into the sunset due to market volatility, OFX rose another 8.9% on a profit update, CRR ran 19.2% on some promising spodumeme shows. IHL rallied 11.0% on positive FDA meeting. In economic news, the lection continues to sap consumer confidence and RBA minutes showed the board toyed with a bigger 40bps rise in rates. Asian markets firmed with Japan up 0.4% and HK soaring 2.3% with China up 1.2%. Signs that the tech crackdown is over from Beijing. Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.

Global headwinds, followed by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis, has soured investor sentiments across geographies. The same was reflected in the domestic equity markets, which have been highly volatile in the last few weeks. The trend may continue in the short-term or until a resolution appears on the horizon for the geopolitical tensions, experts say.   Given the multitude of uncertainties on the global front, the markets have seen a sharp correction in February with the benchmark BSE Sensex and the Nifty50 indices slipping around 5 per cent each. Given the volatility, analysts suggest investors choose stocks wisely and look at defensive plays within the information technology, FMCG and healthcare space, believing that these could be the safest bets for investors in the present scenario.   On a year-to-date basis, the BSE IT index has corrected 12 per cent, while the BSE FMCG index has demonstrated better performance with a relatively smaller cut of 6 per cent. The BSE healthcare index, meanwhile, has fallen 11 per cent so far this year. In comparison, the benchmark Sensex has lost 3.4 per cent.   Prices of key raw materials have continued to inch higher in the last few months, with both palm and crude oil at multi-year highs and materially above the levels in the December quarter. Analysts say, the product price hikes will likely continue going forward given the higher input costs, which could further delay a potential volume growth recovery.   “Staple stocks have corrected 15-30 per cent from their 52-week highs. While there have been some earnings downgrades, valuations have still derated and are now close to five-year averages across most companies based on current estimates — of course, earning downside risk persists,” according to Jefferies.   Meanwhile, Amit Kumar Gupta, portfolio manager, Adroit Financial is bullish on hospitals within the healthcare category, as he believes these players will be largely insulated from the current headwinds and foreseeable interest rate hikes.   On Wednesday, the markets will open after a day's holiday on account of Mahashivratri. Besides reacting to the global markets, geopolitical issues and the GDP numbers for the October – December 2021 period for India announced post market hours on Monday, stock-specific action is likely to continue. 

This week in the podcast, we run through our latest thoughts on earnings, sentiment, trends in high frequency indicators, and Russia. Five big things you need to know: First, with 4Q21 reporting season starting to wind down, the earnings outlook remains stable. Second, in terms of the rate of upward EPS estimate revisions, Value and Cyclicals continue to outshine Defensives and Secular Growth. Third, retail investor sentiment has started to stabilize on the AAII survey and positioning in Nasdaq and Russell 2000 futures also suggests both Growth and Small Caps are oversold. Fourth, high frequency indicators are still recovering for the most part, casting doubt on recession fears. And fifth, while we continue believe the Fed is mostly priced in to the S&P 500, a Russian invasion of Ukraine may not be and currently presents one of the key risks to the stock market.

CLICK HERE to sign up for a free trial of the Marcus Today newsletter including our daily STRATEGY PODCASTASX 200 closes up 29 points to 7532 in what is becoming Groundhog Day. A strong start on the back of US markets then, Gladys steps up to the microphone to do her thing, and we are in dire straits. Once again though a narrow range of trade with resources the stand outs. BHP up 1.3% , FMG up 2.6% and RIO leading the charge. Base metal stocks also in demand, MIN up 3.5% and LYC up 5.7%. Defensives weakened as money sloshed to the growth stories. Bank held firm and healthcare slightly weaker. Results were again the feature as WTC went nuts up 28.5% LOV was a jewel in the crown up 17.6% and BVS slumped 16.0% on its results. APT and Z1P were both out together and were not as expected, Z1P fell 2.6% as it made a huge write down on its Quadpay acquisition and APT is really driven by Square now but slightly disappointing. NEC fell 9.7% on its results and BTH returned after a capital raise and an acquisition running 24.4%.

CLICK HERE to sign up for a free trial of the Marcus Today newsletter including our daily STRATEGY PODCASTASX 200 closes up 29 points to 7532 in what is becoming Groundhog Day. A strong start on the back of US markets then, Gladys steps up to the microphone to do her thing, and we are in dire straits. Once again though a narrow range of trade with resources the stand outs. BHP up 1.3% , FMG up 2.6% and RIO leading the charge. Base metal stocks also in demand, MIN up 3.5% and LYC up 5.7%. Defensives weakened as money sloshed to the growth stories. Bank held firm and healthcare slightly weaker. Results were again the feature as WTC went nuts up 28.5% LOV was a jewel in the crown up 17.6% and BVS slumped 16.0% on its results. APT and Z1P were both out together and were not as expected, Z1P fell 2.6% as it made a huge write down on its Quadpay acquisition and APT is really driven by Square now but slightly disappointing. NEC fell 9.7% on its results and BTH returned after a capital raise and an acquisition running 24.4%.

CLICK HERE to sign up for a free trial of the Marcus Today newsletter including our daily STRATEGY PODCASTASX recovers to close only 38 points down at 7465. It was the best of time and the worst of times. Miners were savaged with the iron ore price adding to BHP woes and commodities generally under pressure. RIO dropped 5.7%, FMG down 6.2% and MIN falling 6.6%. The big Aussie may be regretting its transformation after falling another 6.3%. Industrials and results stole the show and tried valiantly to rescue the index but failed. BHP accounted for 28 index points alone. Banks held the line with the Big Bank Basket dropping to $180.91. CSL rose 3.2% after brokers pronounced judgement. Defensives rose led by WES up 1.7%, BXB up 1.4% and JHX gaining 2.0%. Reports dominated with RBL inflating by 19.0% after an early loss. WSA confirmed media reports that IGO were interested, running 13.0%.  European markets expected to open around 1% weaker.

CLICK HERE to sign up for a free trial of the Marcus Today newsletter including our daily STRATEGY PODCASTASX recovers to close only 38 points down at 7465. It was the best of time and the worst of times. Miners were savaged with the iron ore price adding to BHP woes and commodities generally under pressure. RIO dropped 5.7%, FMG down 6.2% and MIN falling 6.6%. The big Aussie may be regretting its transformation after falling another 6.3%. Industrials and results stole the show and tried valiantly to rescue the index but failed. BHP accounted for 28 index points alone. Banks held the line with the Big Bank Basket dropping to $180.91. CSL rose 3.2% after brokers pronounced judgement. Defensives rose led by WES up 1.7%, BXB up 1.4% and JHX gaining 2.0%. Reports dominated with RBL inflating by 19.0% after an early loss. WSA confirmed media reports that IGO were interested, running 13.0%.  European markets expected to open around 1% weaker.

This week in the podcast we take a look at what we learned in the second full week of 2Q21 reporting season. Three big things you need to know: First, the overall tone from management teams improved in week 2 relative to week 1, with a focus on the strong demand and cash deployment backdrop, increased confidence on the 2nd half, and COVID concerns toned down. Second, while we generally sensed a better tone regarding the ability of companies to manage through margin pressures, we also came away with the impression that management teams are inclined to see general inflationary and supply chain pressures as enduring for a bit longer. Third, while upward earnings revisions are still happening, we continue to see a softening in earnings sentiment driven by deterioration in Financials, Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Utilities specifically and Value, Defensives, and Cyclicals more broadly.

Subscribe to all Benzinga Podcasts at https://www.benzinga.com/podcastsWelcome to Money Mitch Stocks Watchlist - Winner Picks Under 5 minsMoney Mitch Tip Of The Day: Leverage Downside Oil with Inverse ETF $DRIP Markets In 5 Minutes - Subscribe to the FREE Benzinga Newsletter to receive daily market insights and news at https://www.benzinga.com/Pre-Market Gainers & Losers to Watch Five9 Inc (FIVN)$192.30+8.28%The ExOne Co (XONE)$15.30-6.19%Red Cat Holdings Inc (RCAT)$4.37-38.50%Creatd Inc (CRTD)$4.14+28.80%CommoditiesOIL69.82-1.99-2.70% GOLD1,803-12-0.66% SILVER25.39-0.40-1.55% Trending LinksNintendo Says Claims Of Switch OLED Model Having Higher Profit Margin Than Regular Model Are 'Incorrect': BenzingaJapanese video gaming company Nintendo Co on Monday denied reports that claimed profit margins of the new Switch OLED model would be higher compared with the current version, which is about $50 cheaper.Nintendo said in a tweet that the recently announced Nintendo Switch (OLED Model) will launch in October, and the company does not plan to launch any other model at this time.Nio Subsidiary Buys Stake In Chipmaker Amid Crippling Global Semiconductor Shortage: BenzingaA subsidiary of Chinese electric vehicle maker Nio Inc. has acquired a small stake in a unit of Shanghai-listed AI chip company Cambricon, cnEVpost reported Sunday.The move comes after Cambricon said Friday it has agreed to increase the registered capital of its wholly-owned subsidiary Cambricon Xingge by 170 million yuan ($26 million) and bring in investors, as per the report.Deal Talk Kite Realty Group Trust (KRG) and Retail Properties of America, Inc. (RPAI) announce $7.5 billion strategic merger.Zoom (ZM) earlier announced acquisition of Five9 (FIVN) for $14.7 billion in all-stock deal; acquisition represents $200.28 per share price.Upcoming Earnings Report - Week of July 19thWhich earnings report are you most looking forward to?$JNJ $NUE $UAL $HAL $SLB $HOG $CLF $NFLX $T $KO $INTC $LUV $PM $AXP $CALM $CROX $TRV $TXN $DOW $CMG $STLD $PLD $ASML $DHI $ALLY $VZ $FCX $TWTR $AAL $SNAP $TSCO $IBMEpisode SummaryUse the trading tool Money Mitch uses to invest. Check out this link to Benzinga Pro to start to get 2 weeks FREE at pro.benzinga.comSectors and stocks on our radar today:$SPY $QQQUtilities $DUK Oil Plays $DRIP $GUSHFollow us on Twitter Money Mitch @STORYInvestorsJoin us at Money Mitch 4:00 PM ET on BenzingaCheck out SPACs Attack 11:00 AM ET Weekdays on BenzingaListen To Other Episodes at Money Mitch Watchlist PodcastDisclaimer: All of the information, material, and content contained in this program is for informational purposes only.Support this podcast at — https://redcircle.com/money-mitch-watchlist/donationsAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Shekhar Jaiswal, Head of Research, RHB Singapore, talks about whether it is worth being exposed to Singapore stocks as the STI pushes its lowest levels in five weeks while Wall Street trades near record highs. See omnystudio.com/policies/listener for privacy information.

Our top 10 Defensives a short Video --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/robert-sob-allen/support

Is the market about to go through a period of “rotation?” Growth vs. Value, Large Cap vs. Small-Cap, Cyclicals vs. Defensives - does it even matter? Our investment committee is back together, sheltering in place at our own studio, bringing you our perspective on all these subjects and more. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Though it's been a negative week for the Aussie share market, light seems to be at the end of the tunnel for some stocks. With the volatility index falling from its 9-year high to a 7-week low, the market is seemingly more tame. However with immediate threats subsiding, the question of when the consequences of COVID-19 will be fully realised is now on the table.In this week's wrap, Jessica covers: - The sector report: defensive sectors hold fast (0:43)- The stock report: as gold spikes, Regis Resources (ASX:RRL) sees an upturn (1:13)- Gold shines on ETF leaderboard (3:49)- Are we truly headed for the deepest recession in modern history? (5:26)- Stock idea: a2 Milk (ASX:A2M) posts positive 3rd quarter results (5:52)

Zeke is back! What do you do with him for week 1? (0:45) This episode will also cover Bears running back David Montgomery and a couple of messy RB situations (5:45). Defensives to start on week 1 as well as some sleeper defenses will also be discussed (13:00). What can Jacoby Brissett accomplish in 2019? (17:35)

What's On Your Mind is a show that provides listeners with current and relevant market analysis through the eyes of senior trading mentors at the Institute of Trading and Portfolio Management. This podcast represents an audio extract from an original YouTube series which can be visited at the "InstituteofTrading" YouTube channel and provides charts and other supplementary material to compliment the conversation. This time on What's On Your Mind, Chris Quill talks to David Perlin and Chris Cathey. Discussion topics include: Defensives vs Cyclicals The Flat(ish) US Yield Curve Currency Volatility, a Precursor to Equity Volatility Equity Ideas across multiple Sectors Enjoy the show, and don’t forget to subscribe!

Party People, we're back again to give you as much information as possibly to get you prepared for your draft that should be coming up soon, and as always here we bring you some friendly banter, funny stories, and detailed information to make the best decision possible.We start off with a new segment that we are leaving open to the rest of this fantasy football season, Commissioners Chat. Charlie and FLX are both the commissioners of their leagues they run separately and understand the choices that are given to start a league, like which platform to use and to what rules to apply to the league, as well as sometime the decisions that a commissioner must make in his league that another player might find unjust and unfair. With Commissioner Chat, we are looking to build a community of other commissioner to help out and throw ideas around on what works for their league, and what was just a really bad call that wasn't worth the headache. All year long you can be engaged with Charlie and FLX and other commissioners as well to help alleviate the headaches.On to the main topic, Tight Ends and Defensives. We brought those two together since there just aren't that many tight ends out there, especially after the main names, to pick for your team. Here at the Bureau we give you so names that we like, and don't like and then talk about the defensives to pick because lets be honest, no many other fantasy football programs gives much insight on the defense position. We break down numbers and schedules, because every year there are those defensives that give you a healthy amount of consistent points week to week.FOLLOW US :IG - @BFBPODCASTTWITTER - @PODCASTBFB See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Les 4 premières clés étant La Foi, Le Sang de Jésus, La Sainteté et L'Autorité, quelles sont les derniers points essentiels et indispensables au service de la délivrance?