Podcasts about Inside baseball

Another good month – investors are giddy. Oil – CRITICALLY LOW inventory (Inside Baseball). Fed governor admits inflation is hard to control. A major name says they are reducing stocks – but are they really? Announcing the Winner of the CTP for Salesforce (CRM). PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env:'production', hosted_button_id:'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src:'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt:'Donate with PayPal button', title:'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!', } }).render('#donate-button'); Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - Another good month - investors are giddy - Oil - CRITICALLY LOW inventory (Inside Baseball) - Fed governor admits inflation is hard to control - A major name says they are reducing stocks - but are they really? - Announcing the Winner of the CTP for Salesforce Markets - Huge reversal in Software stocks - A few names on the move - and moving BIG! - SpaceX IPO - could drain markets - More AI valuations through the roof Pizza Mouth ! Reversal - Software stocks bounced this week on strong results from Snowflake and Okta, which both recorded their best days on record. - The results signal that investors may have been too quick to declare the end of software with the emergence of artificial intelligence. - Even as AI displaces certain tools and job functions, many software companies continue to show growth, assisted by their own AI products. - The iShares Expanded Tech-Software exchange-traded fund rose 8% this week and closed May up 21%, the best monthly performance for the ETF since October 2001. - With this month's rally, the iShares software ETF is only down 3.8% for the year, still badly trailing the Nasdaq, which has gained 18% in 2026. Snowflake - Amazon said Wednesday that its cloud division has landed a $6 billion spending commitment from Snowflake, which includes the use of the company's custom silicon and chips for artificial intelligence. - Snowflake's purchase of services and technology from Amazon Web Services will occur over five years, according to a press release about the agreement. - Snowflake intends to expand its use of Amazon's Graviton general-purpose chips, as well as cloud-based graphics processing units for AI. - Snowflake and Amazon are frenemies - they compete but also partner with each other. - Stock up 36% on this news DELL!!!!!!!!!!!! - Dell Technologies Inc. shares surged due to an outlook for annual sales that far surpassed expectations on demand for servers that power artificial intelligence work. - Revenue in the fiscal year ending in January 2027 will be about $167 billion, including $60 billion from the sale of AI servers, topping analysts' average estimate of $142.1 billion. - The company booked $24.4 billion in AI orders and generated $16.1 billion in AI server sales in the quarter ended May 1, with Chief Operating Officer Jeff Clarke saying “The AI opportunity shows no signs of slowing.” - The shares surged 33% to $420.91 at the close Friday in New York, the biggest single-day increase in the more than seven years since the hardware maker returned to the public markets after a five-year hiatus as a private firm. - Up 150% YTD More Dell - New XPS 13 at $699 targets price-sensitive market - Aims to compete with MacBook Neo, lower-end Windows devices - Launch amid global memory chip crunch to gain market share - WINING OVER JCD: -- 13.4-inch screen (very compact footprint) Options: 2K / 2.5K LCD (120Hz) OLED touchscreen (higher contrast)| - Very thin bezels ? almost edge?to?edge screen - Weighs 2.2 lbs - one of the lightes out there and a rival to Apple's Macbook Neo Infighting - OpenAI may release multi-chip AI software, challenging Nvidia's (NVDA) ecosystem advantage, according to The Information - Oh, and NVDA is now releasing a CPU for PCs that is aggrevating Intel and AMD Kaboom! - Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket exploded in a massive fireball while undergoing a test on a Florida launchpad, dealing a major setback to the company. - The explosion is the latest blow to New Glenn's reputation as a reliable alternative to SpaceX's Falcon 9, and Blue Origin's launch schedule is certain to suffer significant delays. - The incident will also affect Amazon's ambitions to build out its Leo satellite network and may delay Blue Origin's role in NASA's Artemis program, which aims to send humans back to the moon. - As important as it will be for Blue Origin to diagnose the cause of the rocket explosion, it could take many months to repair its launchpad in Florida. Taking Down - Really? - BlackRock Inc. is trimming its bet on stocks across its model-portfolio business as US equities surge to record highs following a strong earnings season. - The firm cut its overweight position in equities from 3% to 1%, triggering billions of dollars of flows between BlackRock's exchange-traded funds. - BlackRock remains confident in equities and will maintain positions that bet on growing corporate profits, artificial intelligence and government spending, but is rotating away from longer-dated US debt in favor of global fixed-income and liquid alternatives. Slight - SpaceX is targeting a valuation of at least $1.8 trillion in its initial public offering, according to people familiar with the matter. - The company is seeking to raise as much as $75 billion, which would make it the biggest IPO of all time, and is expected to start formal marketing of its IPO as soon as June 4. -SpaceX had $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025, and the company's pitch to investors shows its evolution into an AI services and infrastructure giant with a total addressable market of $28.5 trillion. - 3-5% of the shares will be floated (TIGHT) Strategy: keep supply constrained, which: supports price discovery maintains founder control creates early scarcity dynamics - - - SpaceX has reserved 5% of the shares ?in its planned initial public offering for certain employees and individuals selected by its executive officers, exempting them from post-IPO lock-up restrictions AND.. Even more Valuations - AI giant Anthropic is now worth more than OpenAI. - Anthropic announced a $65 billion Series H financing at a $965 billion valuation, a round led by Altimeter Capital, Dragoneer, Greenoaks and Sequoia Capital. - The financing puts its valuation above that of rival AI lab OpenAI. - The valuation has TRIPLED since February Let's GO! - Shares of LG Electronics surged as much as 24% after the company announced a series of automotive innovations built with technology from Alphabet Inc.'s Google. - The company said its new range of solutions is built on Android automotive operating systems. Its system can control multiple displays with different aspect ratios at the same time by using a single-on-chip, which is different from other conventional in-vehicle display systems, LG said. - But 24% on this news? - More reason that the KOSPI is moving higher No One Care - But... - Inflation has been above the 2% target for 5 years now - Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said Thursday that bringing down inflation in the U.S. remains his top priority, warning that consumer prices are still “much too high.”| - Speaking to CNBC's Kaori Enjoji at the Bank of Japan-IMES Conference, Kashkari said that the U.S. central bank would continue taking a “balanced approach” to its dual mandate of price stability and full employment. - 5 YEARS! ---- What that tells us is that the Fed is totally unable to do anything about inflation .... Are we the only ones that see that? Inside Baseball - From a colegie that will go un-named. --- Let's just say he is someone who knows what they are talking about and runs BIG money ----- This is what he said to me..... - Apparently, oil execs were opining with POTUS in meetings yesterday that oil inventories are at alarmingly low levels and oil prices could soon skyrocket (I might soften that language a bit but they know the oil biz better than me) if SoH does not open soon. - I ran a few numbers on total oil inventories including and excluding the SPR. - Total supplies are 10th percentile vs history (although that includes a period when the SPR ramped from 0 to 600mln barrels in the 1980's). - Today it is 4th percentile if you start from 1990 when the SPR was basically full. - The 4 week net and % draw the last 3 weeks are the largest draws of all time. - And not surprising the 1 week net and % draw of the SPR are also the 2 largest draws of all time the last 2 weeks. Surprised - No.... --- This is another story similar to what we saw a few months ago - Taiwan prosecutors suspect that three individuals smuggled at least one shipment of Nvidia Corp. AI chips to China after first exporting them to Japan. - The trio was detained for allegedly falsifying documents related to exports of Super Micro Computer Inc. servers containing advanced Nvidia chips, which the US has barred from sale to China without a license. - Taiwan authorities seized about 50 servers for which they accuse the trio of preparing fraudulent export documents, but at least one shipment had already gone through Taiwan customs and made it to Hong Kong. Under/Over? - Tesla will be somehow folder/merged or taken over by SpaceX in an all stock deal - Tesla market cap is $1.6 Trillion so that will be a tough one to take on as SpaceX is about equal in size. ---- If this happens, when ? Mini Retirement - Is this a THING? - A mini retirement is when you take a planned break from working, usually for a few months to a couple of years, instead of waiting until age 65+ to fully retire. - Tim Feerris popularized this... (4 day workweek dude) Step 1: Work & save aggressively 2–10+ years Build a specific “freedom fund” Step 2: Take time off 3 months to 2 years Travel, recharge, pursue interests, or experiment with new ideas Step 3: Return to work Same career… or pivot to something new Then repeat if desired.   Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Announcing the THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN for SALESFORCE (CRM)   Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!     FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week's stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Send us Fan MailIn this engaging interview, Major League Baseball scout Tom Keefe shares his extensive experience in baseball scouting, his early memories as a fan, and insights into the scouting process, player evaluation, and memorable moments in baseball history.Key TopicsBaseball scouting process and evaluationMemorable moments and early memories as a fanInfluence of baseball legends and memorabiliaPlayer personality and mental makeup assessmentMemorable baseball games and experiencesSound Bites"Sitting next to Carol Rose at Crosley Field""Sparky Anderson autographed baseball""Joe Morgan's impact on the game"Chapters00:00Introduction to Tom Keefe03:59Early Memories of Baseball Fandom11:05Favorite Players and Managers17:49Transition from Swimming to Baseball Scouting20:26Scouting Responsibilities and Evaluation Process36:47The Scouting Fraternity and Information Sharing42:13Categories and Major League Decisions43:19Respecting Rivals in Baseball47:07Baseball Legends: Mount Rushmore of Players50:20Dinner Party with Baseball Icons54:20Memorable Baseball Moments57:19Favorite Baseball Movies and Walk-Up Songs01:01:11Favorite Ballpark Experiences01:04:08The Nicest Players in Baseball01:07:13Advice for Young Baseball Players01:10:49The Whole Town's batty.mp4ResourcesMajor League BaseballFlorida MarlinsLos Angeles DodgersProphet of the Sandlots (Book)Prasco ParkXavier University BaseballUniversity of Cincinnati BaseballGreat Lakes Summer Collegiate LeagueBill Maseroski's Home Run (Video) Jack thanks the listeners

The Boys talk a little Producer Inside Baseball with Brass Knuckle Film's Alexis Garcia! He dishes in on his upcoming projects, what a Producer *really* does, and the almighty AMBULANCE (set stories included)!Find Us on these Platforms:Guest- Alexis Garcia: InstagramBrass Knuckle Films: Website, InstagramThe Boys-Action For Everyone: Twitter/BlueSky/Twitch/InstagramMichael Scott: BlueSkyVyceVictus: Twitter/BlueSky/Instagram/LetterboxdLiam O'Donnell: Twitter/InstagramMax Deering: Twitter/Bluesky/Letterboxd/Polygon/Neonsplatter/Fangoria/DiscussingFilm, Muckrack

A Special Industry Update with Jason Diamond and Mindy Diamond A replay of part one of a two-part series, Jason and Mindy Diamond unpack the real advisor transition playbook—from due diligence and culture fit to portability, enterprise value, and the evolving landscape of advisor choice. In Summary Why do advisors really consider changing firms or models—and what separates thoughtful due diligence from reactive decision-making? In a replay of the first of this special two-part Industry Update, Jason and Mindy Diamond unpack what actually drives advisor transitions, the misconceptions that derail decision-making, and the questions sophisticated teams should be asking long before they're ready to act. The conversation also explores how the industry landscape has evolved around independence, portability, enterprise value, and advisor optionality—drawing context from Diamond's role in the landmark OpenArc breakaway from Merrill and much more. The Storyline Most advisors assume transitions are primarily driven by recruiting economics. Jason Diamond and Mindy Diamond suggest that recruiting economics may get the headlines, but advisor transitions are usually driven by a far more layered set of considerations. What tends to happen instead is more gradual: a growing disconnect between how advisors want to serve clients and the constraints of the environment around them. Sometimes it's bureaucracy. Sometimes it's limitations around growth, marketing, technology, or flexibility. Sometimes it's simply the realization that the industry landscape has evolved while their assumptions about it have not. This conversation examines what actually happens between the moment curiosity begins and the moment a move becomes real. Rather than treating transitions as transactional events, Jason and Mindy frame due diligence as a strategic process of self-assessment—clarifying what matters, identifying trade-offs, evaluating long-term optionality, and pressure-testing assumptions before making consequential decisions. The discussion also offers a rare look inside the mechanics of advisor movement itself: how teams evaluate culture, how portability is assessed, why some advisors choose ownership over upfront monetization, and what sophisticated client communication really looks like during a transition. The backdrop throughout the episode is Diamond's role in facilitating the historic OpenArc breakaway from Merrill—a move that challenged longstanding assumptions about scale, independence, and what even the industry's largest teams are now willing to reconsider. Topics Covered Advisor transition due diligence Wirehouse limitations and advisor frustration Independence versus traditional firm models Enterprise value and long-term ownership Advisor portability and client transition strategy Boutique and regional firm recruiting trends Culture evaluation during due diligence Reverse due diligence and evaluating firm stability Transition economics and recruiting deals The OpenArc Merrill breakaway story Advisor optionality and industry evolution How technology and AI are changing transitions   > Download a transcript of this episode… Listen and Learn Highlights for Advisors Why do advisors actually decide to leave firms? (06:20) Mindy explains why most transitions are driven less by economics and more—by mounting limitations around growth, flexibility, client service, and long-term alignment. What is the biggest mistake advisors make when beginning due diligence? (18:12) The conversation explores why many advisors evaluate firms before gaining clarity around what they truly want to improve—often creating confusion instead of insight. How should advisors evaluate culture beyond a firm's sales pitch? (32:41) Jason and Mindy discuss the importance of speaking directly with advisors who have already made similar moves—and how to pressure-test what firms promise. When should transition economics matter most? (47:03) The episode breaks down the difference between short-term monetization and long-term enterprise value creation—and why many elite teams are increasingly prioritizing ownership and optionality. Why are more advisors reconsidering independence? (56:48) Using the OpenArc transition as context, the discussion explores how today's independent landscape has evolved far beyond the traditional “build it yourself” model. How long does a real due diligence process take? (1:06:10) Jason and Mindy explain why thoughtful transitions often unfold over many months—and why some advisors remain in exploratory conversations for years before acting. How should advisors think about portability and client communication? (1:16:20) The conversation details how sophisticated teams assess portability risk—and why the client-facing rationale for a move matters more than recruiting economics. Have advisor transitions become easier over time? (1:24:12) Mindy explains how technology, legal infrastructure, and industry specialization have improved the process—while emphasizing that transitions still require risk tolerance, effort, and patience. Key Takeaways Most advisors do not move primarily because of recruiting deals. The larger driver is usually a growing disconnect between what they want to build and what their current environment allows. Due diligence tends to fail when advisors begin by evaluating firms before clarifying what they actually want for their business, clients, and long-term future. The industry landscape has evolved dramatically over the last decade, particularly around independent and supported-independent models, creating far more customization and optionality than many advisors realize. Transition economics matter — but sophisticated advisors increasingly view upfront monetization as only one component of a much larger enterprise value equation. The ability to articulate a compelling client-facing value proposition is one of the strongest tests of whether a transition opportunity is truly viable. Conversations with advisors who have already made similar moves remain one of the most valuable forms of real-world due diligence. Even the industry's largest teams are reassessing assumptions around independence, ownership, control, and scalability. Quotable Moments “The biggest mistake advisors make is beginning due diligence before they've gotten clear about what they actually want.” “A recruiting deal can't be the first thing you consider. But it would be foolish not to consider it at all.” “The landscape looks entirely different than it did five or ten years ago. If you haven't gotten educated, you're doing yourself a disservice.” “The real question is not whether you can move. It's whether you can clearly explain to clients why the move makes their experience better.” FAQs Why do advisors typically begin exploring a move? In many cases, the process begins gradually. Advisors may still feel successful and reasonably satisfied, but start questioning whether their current environment fully supports how they want to grow, serve clients, or build long term. Often, curiosity precedes dissatisfaction. Is advisor movement mostly driven by recruiting deals? Not usually. While economics are an important consideration, the episode explains that most sophisticated advisors weigh a much broader set of factors, including flexibility, culture, client experience, growth limitations, ownership opportunities, and long-term enterprise value. How long does a typical due diligence process take? There is no universal timeline. Some advisors move relatively quickly once they decide change is necessary, while others spend months – or even years – getting educated and evaluating options before acting. For many teams, a thoughtful due diligence process unfolds over roughly six months. What is the biggest mistake advisors make during due diligence? The episode suggests the biggest mistake is evaluating firms before gaining clarity around personal and business priorities. Without understanding what they actually want to improve, advisors often become overwhelmed by options, recruiting pitches, and conflicting information. How can advisors really assess a firm's culture? One of the most valuable approaches is speaking directly with advisors who have already made similar moves. Jason and Mindy discuss why real-world perspective – particularly from advisors with comparable client bases or business structures – is often far more revealing than formal presentations or recruiting materials. How should advisors think about independence versus traditional firms? The conversation frames the decision less as “right versus wrong” and more as a question of alignment. Some advisors prioritize ownership, control, and long-term enterprise value. Others value infrastructure, brand recognition, or operational support. The industry landscape has evolved enough that advisors now have far more flexibility to design around the trade-offs that matter most to them. In many cases, the process begins gradually. Advisors may still feel successful and reasonably satisfied, but start questioning whether their current environment fully supports how they want to grow, serve clients, or build long term. Often, curiosity precedes dissatisfaction. Not usually. While economics are an important consideration, the episode explains that most sophisticated advisors weigh a much broader set of factors, including flexibility, culture, client experience, growth limitations, ownership opportunities, and long-term enterprise value. There is no universal timeline. Some advisors move relatively quickly once they decide change is necessary, while others spend months – or even years – getting educated and evaluating options before acting. For many teams, a thoughtful due diligence process unfolds over roughly six months. The episode suggests the biggest mistake is evaluating firms before gaining clarity around personal and business priorities. Without understanding what they actually want to improve, advisors often become overwhelmed by options, recruiting pitches, and conflicting information. One of the most valuable approaches is speaking directly with advisors who have already made similar moves. Jason and Mindy discuss why real-world perspective – particularly from advisors with comparable client bases or business structures – is often far more revealing than formal presentations or recruiting materials. The conversation frames the decision less as “right versus wrong” and more as a question of alignment. Some advisors prioritize ownership, control, and long-term enterprise value. Others value infrastructure, brand recognition, or operational support. The industry landscape has evolved enough that advisors now have far more flexibility to design around the trade-offs that matter most to them. Related Resources The Advisor Transition Playbook: The Latest on Due Diligence, the Move, and Everything In Between – Part 2Jason and Mindy Diamond revisit the transition playbook, this time focused on how advisor priorities are shifting. From AI and enterprise value to stability and flexibility, they unpack what's changing in due diligence and what it means for advisors evaluating their next move.  The $129B Blockbuster Move: Shirl Penney on Why This Transition Marks a New Era for the IndustryThe $129B OpenArc breakaway marks a watershed moment for wealth management. In this Rapid Reaction episode, Louis Diamond and Shirl Penney unpack what it means for the RIA model, advisors, and the future of industry competition. The Missing Narrative of the $129B Merrill Breakaway StoryThe largest (and quite possibly most significant) advisor breakaway in industry history made news this week. Yet instead of leading with the scale or significance of the move, headlines centered on Merrill's lawsuit alleging corporate raiding. NOTE: The views and opinions expressed by the guests on this podcast are their own and do not necessarily reflect the views and opinions of Diamond Consultants. Neither Diamond Consultants nor the guests on this podcast are compensated in any way for their participation. View the transcript of this episode… The Advisor Transition Playbook: Inside Baseball on Due Diligence, the Move, and Everything In Between A Special Industry Update with Jason Diamond and Mindy Diamond. Jason Diamond: Welcome to a replay of one of the most popular episodes from our podcast series for financial advisors, The Advisor Transition Playbook: Inside Baseball on Due Diligence, the Move, and Everything In Between. It's Part 1 of a 2-Part Industry Update with Mindy Diamond. I’m Jason Diamond and this is the Diamond Podcast for Financial Advisors. Mindy Diamond: At Diamond Consultants, we help elite advisors identify the right environment for their businesses to thrive, whether that’s at a wirehouse, boutique, or independent firm. With nearly three decades of experience, we’ve guided thousands of advisors and represented more than a quarter of a trillion dollars in assets transitioned. And each year, one in four advisors managing a billion dollars or more, who change firms, are our clients. Our process is education driven and based on building relationships, starting as your strategic partner well before you’re even thinking of a move. To schedule a confidential conversation, call us at (908) 879-1002. Wondering why advisors change firms, and where they’re headed? Are transition deals going up or down? Those very questions and more inspired us to create our annual Advisor Transition Report. It’s the award-winning data-driven resource designed for advisors that connects the dots between the motivations around movement and the firm’s appetite for top talent. Arm yourself with the knowledge you need to make smart decisions. Download your copy at diamond-consultants.com/transitionreport. Jason Diamond: Everything about a transition can seem incredibly overwhelming. From understanding the whys of a move, then conducting due diligence, and onto aligning the right models and selecting the best firms, it might seem like a fairly linear process. And for some, it can be. But for others, the layers of minutia can be daunting. Essentially, it comes down to the adage, “You don’t know what you don’t know.” So the goal of this episode is to share some inside baseball in how to get from here to there. I asked Mindy Diamond to join me to help draw from decades of experience in helping advisors through their transitions. We’ve dived into the misconceptions, the common traps, the aware of a big check and much more. Essentially, it’s a download of what you need to know when considering a move. There’s a lot to discuss, so let’s get to it. Mindy, so excited to have you join me for this topic. Mindy Diamond: Yeah, I’m really happy to be here. And I’m just thinking to myself, “Yikes, decades of experience,” you’ve said, and yes it is, decades of experience. Jason Diamond: It most certainly is, 30 years in the business. So the seeding for this topic was, “You’ve been in this business now for 30 years, how many hundreds of thousands of conversations with advisors is that?” Some who moved, plenty who certainly did not. But ultimately, what we thought would be useful because it’s a question we get most commonly from advisors that we speak with is, “Tell me what I don’t know. What are the questions I should be asking?” So I’m going to just pepper you with some of the most common questions we get, and I would love to share the benefit of your wisdom and experience with our audience. That sound good? Mindy Diamond: It sounds great. I just want to say that we are recording this two days after one of the largest deals probably in the history of the industry broke that I am gratified to say we facilitated the OpenArc team who left Merrill with 129 billion in assets under management, broke a couple days ago to go independent. I’m hoping we have the opportunity to talk about some of their best practices and things we discovered along the way because I think it’s relevant. And a deal like this gets a lot of attention, people always want to know what they do and what went wrong. Jason Diamond: It’s a good point. I’m glad you bring it up. First of all, it’s so timely, but I think you can almost use it as a case study a little bit to answer some of these questions. So let’s dive in with that. I want to start with the big picture, “Why?” Because that’s the number one thing I think people want to know is, “Why do advisors move?” And I think there’s an assumption that 95% of transitions happen because of a big check or because of economics. I’m certain you’re going to touch on that to some extent, but give me your sense of what are the main triggers of advisor movement. Mindy Diamond: Yeah. Look, are there some advisors that move because they need to recapitalize or they want the money? Sure. But the absolute vast majority are moving because they come to a place where one of two things is true, and oftentimes both. One, the pain of staying is great enough. Meaning there’s enough frustrations or limitations that they’ve gotten to a point where despite efforts to the contrary to make it better, despite gutting it out and saying, “On par, it’s good enough,” they come to a point where there’s limitations in how they can serve their clients, how they can grow the business, and that’s just untenable for them. Hopefully, simultaneously, they are equally excited and have identified an opportunity that they believe is needle-moving enough, it’s worth the hassle, the disruption, the everything to make this move. I’ve never done a move where it doesn’t fall into one of those two or, hopefully, both of those categories. Jason Diamond: Let’s go a little deeper there. You mentioned limitations. Give me an example either using this recent deal or even just any recent advisors that you’ve worked with about, “What are some limitations that people experience at,” let’s say, “the wirehouses that potentially would be a catalyst for a move?” Mindy Diamond: Generally speaking, the biggest limitations have to do with how they’re able to grow their business and serve their clients. So anything to do with excess bureaucracy, anything to do with an incongruence, if you will, between the advisors or the team’s goals for how they want to serve clients or grow the business and what the firm is allowing them to do. Using this enormous deal as an example, you’ve got a team that was doing extraordinarily well. Oh, my god. They were the biggest team at Merrill, so talk about having a batphone to the top and the attention of senior leadership. If anyone was going to be able to break through the red tape or get things done, or eschew the limitations, it was them. And for a long time, they did. But they were sort of increasingly unhappy, let’s say, over a decade. Despite their size, every year, they became a little bit more frustrated. And after probably six or seven years of saying, “We’re just too big to move,” they came to a point of saying, “We can’t ignore this anymore. We’ve got a tiger by its tail. We have this extraordinary business that is growing exponentially. We’ve got clients that are complaining to us. And more importantly, we’ve got team members that are feeling stifled.” And that’s where it comes from, where there’s problems you just can’t ignore even if you want to. Jason Diamond: It almost feels like one of those things where advisors know they’re limited, they can just feel it. But if you’re fighting against the firm, and instead of with it. I’ll give you one other one that comes to mind as we’re talking here, that seems to come up a lot in advisor conversations, which is freedom of marketing. And that might seem like a fairly minor limitation, but I can’t tell you how many times, certainly myself, I’m sure you too, get call from an advisor who is heated. They’re angry because they were trying to send some timely market commentary and the firm took two weeks to approve it. Does that fall under the same category of limitations, in your mind? Mindy Diamond: Oh, without a doubt. And it’s funny you say that because in this world of social media where the news is consumed or can be consumed within seconds of an event happening, there’s nothing more frustrating for an advisor than wanting to write a newsletter to update their clients with scale as opposed to having to make one phone call at a time and not being able to do so. It absolutely puts them on a back foot. And then, I think it’s the lack of freedom to differentiate themselves. Most advisors that work for big firms have a firm website that is templated, the same sort of structure of the website and the picture of the team and the same basic wordings, and that’s hard to deal with. Jason Diamond: Well, you bring up an interesting point, which is sometimes… For example, advisors might say or wirehouse advisors might say, “Oh, the marketing is good enough.” But a lot of times, and we’ve had advisors on this podcast who talk about exactly this, they don’t realize how limited the sandbox they were playing in is or was until after a transition. And that’s when their eyes open and they realize, “Oh, my god. I was basically playing with one arm tied behind my back.” We’ve heard advisors use that metaphor. Let me ask you this then, and this is a tough question, what do you think advisors get wrong? What is the number one misconception that advisors have prior to approaching due diligence and thinking about a move? And maybe it’s something as simple as like, “Eh, it’s the same everywhere,” but tell me what you think you hear most commonly. Mindy Diamond: There’s certainly those myths, the assumptions or presumptions that it’s the same everywhere or there’s nothing that’s going to change anyway, for sure. But I think the biggest and most fundamental thing they get wrong is a lack of clarity around, “What it is they’re trying to accomplish, and why?” I’d like to say that I think one of the things, the thing, we do better than most, I’m not going to say everyone else but better than most, and something we’re really good at, is helping advisors to answer the really tough questions, the smartest questions, to get a sense of what it is they’re looking to accomplish, what it is they want to improve and why, “What does success look like?” Because if you don’t do that, then a lot of folks do it backwards. They get a phone call from a manager at Morgan Stanley or from somebody at Schwab or somebody at Dynasty, or whatever it may be, and they say, “I’ll take a lunch, why not?” And of course, the job of the manager from Morgan or the sales rep from Dynasty, or whatever it is, is to tell you all the good things about independence or about Morgan Stanley. But if I, as the advisor, am not really clear about what it is I’m looking to accomplish and why, it’s going to all sound good and I’m going to wind up more overwhelmed than when I started. And that is probably the number one thing that we see advisors getting wrong. It makes the due diligence process, if you choose to enter it, exceedingly inefficient. Jason Diamond: I totally agree. So I’m an advisor, I want to start due diligence in earnest. I know in my head, things are suboptimal. I’m not going to go so far as to say,” I definitively want to move.” But I’m a wirehouse advisor and I’m thinking for the first time in my career, “I’ve built a nice business, but it’s time for me to start getting educated.” So what do I do? Do I just say, “Hey, John at Morgan Stanley, what’s your recruiting deal look like these days?” Tell me, for an advisor who’s never thought about this before, what are the ABCs of this process look like? Mindy Diamond: Yeah. It’s definitely not, the first step, calling Morgan Stanley, even if you’re pretty sure Morgan Stanley is where you want to go. I’d suggest that’s probably one of the last steps, and I’ll tell you why. The first thing is to give yourself permission to say, “Even if I’m not 100% certain that a move is in my future or that I know I’m unhappy enough to go through the hassle and disruption of making a move,” to give yourself permission to get educated. The world, the industry landscape, the ecosystem, the everything looks entirely different than it did five and 10 years ago. And if it’s been five or 10 years, or even three to five years, since you last got educated, asked the questions, looked under the hood to get a sense of, “Is there or could there be something that’s better than where I am?”, you’re doing yourself and your team a disservice. Yeah, it takes time and it’s annoying and it’s overwhelming, and it’s all of it, but that’s honestly why people like us have a job. We don’t approach this that we think people should only come to us when they’re sure they’re going to make a move. In fact, it’s the opposite. We love the calls we get when somebody says, “I’m really happy here. I’ve been here 40 years. I’ve been here 30 years, it’s really good enough, it’s working well for me.” “But all of a sudden, I’m beginning to be curious. Or all of a sudden, I feel X, Y and Z. Tell me what I don’t know.” Those are the best calls. Those are the smartest calls. That’s the best thing an advisor can do. Jason Diamond: Yeah, I agree with that. Are there things you think an advisor needs to ask for during the diligence… I guess what I’m getting at is, do you trust the process that if you go through this process with, let’s say, three to five strategically picked firms… So you work within a recruiter or, a shameless plug, however you approach this, and you end up with your short list of contenders. Do you trust that, by going through the due diligence process, these firms are going to give you the building blocks that you need to do proper due diligence? Or are there things you, as an advisor, need to ask for? I’ll give you one example that comes to mind, which is… There’s obviously been some firms that have had financial troubles recently. So do you think an advisor, for example, needs to ask for financial statements from a firm they’re potentially considering due diligence on? I’m curious what your thoughts are. Mindy Diamond: Yeah. Particularly, if you’re looking at sort of in this new world order, if we think about the landscape as a continuum and the newer boutique multifamily offices on the right side, absolutely. Conducting what we call reverse due diligence and getting to see the financials of the firms you’re considering, to make sure that they’re sound and solid and that the equity valuation is exactly as advertised, of course, yes, that’s true. So the answer is, in part, you trust the process. You trust that if you’ve asked the right questions, if you’ve gotten clarity around what’s important to you, and as a result, you’ve crafted the right questions, and therefore, the manager or the representative from the firm or options you’re considering has put together the right due diligence plan, you can trust that at least 90% of what needs to be gotten right has gotten right. But there are always things around the margins that aren’t addressed. One is you can’t just outsource the due diligence process. You need to be paying attention. And much like people who trust their doctor and presume the doctor just always has it right, you need to be your own advocate. I would say, the same thing here. That as the process unfolds, there will be additional questions, additional sort of gaps and holes, and you shouldn’t stop until you’ve gotten all of your questions answered. That’s really the best advice I can give. Jason Diamond: You are talking to John from XYZ firm and Jim from ABC firm, and they’re going to tell you what’s great about their firms. So how do you know that you’re not just buying a false bill of goods, it’s just a glossy kind of sales pitch? I’ll give you my answer first. Part of it is, I think, you test drive the systems. I think another step I suggest a lot is calls with advisors on the platform. So an advisor who left UBS to go to Morgan Stanley, probably the best possible person to ask about Morgan Stanley. Any other additional thoughts on that one? Mindy Diamond: You took the words right out of my mouth. Absolutely, that is the number one way to do it, is that you ask for an opportunity, and you can do it in a name-blind way without identifying yourself, to talk with advisors that have made the move that are two things, that either came from the firm you’re coming from, so you get a similar perspective, but it’s equally important to talk to advisors that have similar business mix. It doesn’t matter what firm they came from, even if it’s not the same as yours, but, “How does someone that services international clients, how are they better able to serve those international clients at this new firm or new model than they were where you are?” We’re talking about it as if it’s wirehouse-to-wirehouse. But very often in today’s world order, especially looking at this giant move from this week, it’s about wirehouse to some version of independence. So there’s so much more due diligence, so many more questions that are required. It is even more important in that world to really get an understanding of what it’s like from the perspective of somebody that’s walking in those shoes. I will tell you, Jason, and you know this, that literally the number one reason I started this podcast more than a decade ago, and why we continue to do the podcast and the feedback we get, is because the feedback from advisors that have joined a platform already is the very best feedback, the best way, in a discreet confidential manner, to hear the truth from somebody who doesn’t have a horse in the race who’s just sharing their perspective with you. And that’s the feedback we continue to get. In a couple of weeks, I’m interviewing, as an example, Neil Rubinstein. Neil’s an advisor in Texas that came from Merrill that we moved to Rockefeller. A perfect example. So many advisors that are considering a move if they’ve got high net worth clients are going to look at Rockefeller. Well, what better way to understand what Rockefeller is about than to hear it from an advisor that’s walked in the shoes, not only of a Merrill advisor, but services high net worth clients and then have information or perspective similar to Neil. What do you think about that? Do you agree with that? Jason Diamond: 1000%. First of all, the podcast, I will say, a little bit of a sales pitch, has one thing going for it that a call with an advisor doesn’t, which is complete discretion and confidentiality. I will say, I think we’ve done a good job of doing facilitating name-blind calls between advisors. We continue to harp on this point even though it sounds somewhat minor, because it really is the very… You can talk to people like me and people like the recruiters from the firms until you’re blue in the face. But the right way, the best possible way to learn the, “Is this guy selling me? How does the technology compare to Merrill? How does the day-to-day compare? What’s it like working for this manager?”, all those types of questions, I think are best answered by another advisor. So completely agree with you. Mindy Diamond: Yeah, and I’ll take it one step further. Somewhere in the process, you take advantage of the opportunity to either listen to a podcast and hear somebody’s perspective of what the move was like, and how it’s bettered their life and where the pitfalls are, and/or you take the opportunity to talk with other advisors that have made the move, so you can ask your own specific questions. But after you’ve had the opportunity to do that, then it’s really important, and this is the part that why you can’t entirely outsource or let the due diligence process just go on autopilot, to take some of that perspective and the manager that you’re interviewing with, hold his or her feet to the fire. What do I mean by that? So I talked to an advisor that talked about the fact that the number one concern about Rockefeller, I’m making this up, is that they’re going to be the next Merrill, or that they just added a fee that now is going to have to be passed on to clients. While this advisor said it doesn’t bother them and they had a lot of good reason of why it’s not an issue, I’d love for you to tell me why it could be an issue. What are some of the things you’ve gotten wrong? When someone doesn’t join Rockefeller, why is it? I’m making that up- Jason Diamond: Yeah, smart. Same thing. Even let go, this advisor mentioned that technology is a step back from the firm I’m coming from. And I’m not asking you to argue with me, but perhaps the manager might be able to say something like, “We’re investing substantially in the platform, and we have these rollouts coming in the next several months that are going to close that gap.” So I completely agree. That’s a really smart- Mindy Diamond: And a follow-up question to that example, Jason, which is a great one, is, “How can I trust, how can I get a sense of security, if I join here in the next couple of months that in fact that investment is going to be made? And how that investment in technology will actually impact thing?” So again, it’s constantly being your own advocate, constantly paying attention, and constantly questions beget more questions. Jason Diamond: I agree we. Haven’t talked at all about the dollars and cents of this, and I think we need to because it’s important. Right? You can have the best platform on the planet, but the reality is a move comes with risk, a move comes with hassle, and there is a market for advisors’ books of businesses. That’s one of, I think, the major kind of paradigm shifts we’ve seen in the last, call it, decade is advisors know their books are assets, their book is a business, and that business is worth something substantial. At any firm, even at their current firm via retire and place deals, the book is worth something substantial. So if you had to put a percentage to it, I’m an advisor making a decision, 100% waiting, how much percent waiting do I put on the economics and how much waiting do I put on culture, platform, everything else? Mindy Diamond: The answer is, absolutely, it’s an inside job, personal, and it depends upon the advisor. There are some advisors, they’re wrong, but they will put all the weight on personal economics. They’re making a big mistake, if that’s the case. And most advisors will put much more weight on getting it right, meaning, “What’s life going to be like afterwards? And will I have a better ability to serve clients and grow the business?” But here’s what I would say, they’re both equally important. So no advisor who’s got a decent enough runway ahead of him or her and who’s looking to really grow the business and who cares about their clients can’t be unconcerned about the culture of where they’re going and what life is going to be like and what are the limitations, all of the questions we’ve been talking about. But an advisor who’s built a great business would be a fool not to consider their own personal economics. It just can’t be the first thing they consider. And in the book I wrote, Should I Stay or Should I Go?, I wrote that 100 times that it’s all about, “Lead with what’s important to the business and important to clients, do the right thing, but you can’t ignore personal financial gain.” Let’s talk about this move of OpenArc, this $129-billion Merrill team. You can only imagine the number of zeros at the end of a check that this team was offered by every major firm on the street. And in the span of a decade, they got those offers. Independence, making this enormous leap, was not the first thing they looked at, was not necessarily their first choice. But as they began, in their case, to really consider how limited they felt on the things they wanted to be able to do for clients… By the way, I don’t want to steal anybody’s thunder because we’re going to be launching a podcast specifically talking about this deal and this move, so I’ll save that for… Louis Diamond, our partner, and Shirl Penney, the CEO and founder of Dynasty, are going to be talking about it and they’ll cover all of that. But I just want to give the example that as this team began to realize, certainly in the last five years, how much things had changed at Merrill and how incongruent they felt between their goals, the goals for the business, the goals for serving clients, and what the firm was asking of them since Bank of America came to town, it became impossible to just say, “Holy cow, we can get a check with a lot of zeros at the end of it.” They couldn’t not see the benefits of everything else, the benefits that creating their own independent entity could bring them. Jason Diamond: I agree with that. I will play devil’s advocate a little bit here and say, “I think what you’re really talking about is the trade-off.” They’re not martyrs, they’re not altruistic and said, “We don’t want your hundreds of millions of dollars.” I think what you’re talking about is the trade-off between near-term upfront recruiting deals, which is the primary means by which the wirehouses, the regionals, the boutique firms recruit. Right? The traditional forgivable loan structure is all about a short term de-risking of the move, a monetization event in the near term where they’re paying you some percentage of revenue, 350%, 400% of revenue, tied to a forgivable loan. But that’s your bite of the apple in that example. With the example of a move to independence, you’ll lose, in some cases, all of that upfront monetization. So this example you’re talking about is a good example where they got no upfront transition dollars because they launched an RIA. But, and this is a very important caveat, they know they are building equity and ownership in something that is going to, at the current rate, be worth a preposterous multiple if and when they decide to sell it. So I assume that has to be part of this conversation around independence is, it’s not that you don’t care about monetizing the business, it’s that you plan to monetize the business in a different and probably more significant way. Fair? Mindy Diamond: Beyond fair. 1000%, that’s absolutely correct. Again, not only making it about this example, but it’s a good example. So again, the possibility of getting a check with a lot of zeros on it, and by the way, also tapping into an already established well-familiar, well-run infrastructure. Think about how much easier the move would’ve been, to jump from Merrill Lynch to Morgan Stanley, and not probably was their first choice, if they were going to go the traditional route. Think about how much easier the due diligence process… how much less heavy the lift would’ve been in terms of due diligence, but certainly from a short-term upfront perspective. And that’s really the key, is that not everyone has the appetite to bet on the long term. To me, that’s the beauty of the industry landscape as it’s evolved and the waterfall of possibilities today. If you’re a great team, and there are so many great teams, you’re growing, you’ve got a multi-generational bench of advisors, you’ve got a succession plan, you’ve got sticky clients, you don’t have 5,000 clients but you have 100 or 200 relationships, you’ve got a great business that you’ve got options for it, there’s no right or wrong. It’s, “What do I want to be when I grow up?”, and, “How do I want to live my business life?” And if you query 10 of those great teams, five of them will wind up moving to the traditional space. That doesn’t make it wrong, it’s just, “That’s what’s right for them.” But the other five will have entrepreneurial drive, will value the long term, and willing to forego the short-term upside in order to bet on themselves for the long term. And holy cow, again, we’ll save that for the episode that Shirl and Louis do to talk about what those multiples could look like, but I don’t think there’s enough zeros on the calculator to begin to think about what that business… OpenArc’s business will be worth even as little as five years from now. Jason Diamond: I agree with that. I think the one point I would probably make in defense of people who go the traditional firm route… Actually, two points. Number one, I don’t think it’s only about, “I am not willing to bet on myself, and I don’t want to delay the monetization event.” I think for some people, the idea of being independent and putting the toner in the copy machine and the little K-cups, that’s just not appealing. I like going into a branch and they have everything, my desk is all set up. So that’s one caveat I’d make that some people just prefer the traditional firm world. The other caveat I’d make is there are advisors who, rightly or wrongly, believe in the brand name of the firm mattering. So there are some advisors who say, “Look, I am a good advisor, but my ability to land and grow business is tied very closely to XYZ firm/brand, Morgan Stanley.” I think, a lot of times, we find that’s not always the case as much as advisors believe. But I’m just trying to think of a couple scenarios where there are advisors who genuinely prefer or need or want the stability, big brand, resources of the biggest firms on the planet. Mindy Diamond: I totally agree. Actually, thank you for bringing those two caveats up because, I’d say, there’s a third caveat. Someone can’t go independent, they don’t have a next gen. They don’t have someone that could do the heavy lifting, if they’re not capable of doing it on their own, to build an independent firm. They don’t have entrepreneurial spirit. They’re three years from retirement, and they don’t have the kind of time that it takes to really build the value of an independent practice. And we have great respect for those people. But again, the cool thing about the industry landscape is that as it’s evolved, there’s something for everyone. It doesn’t necessarily mean that the only choice is stay put or go to UBS. Jason Diamond: Agree. In fact, there’s probably even versions of independence. For example, if you don’t have a successor, well, there are versions of independence that might work where there’s a monetization event on the backend where somebody can buy and inherit your book. So that is probably the coolest or most interesting thing, the most exciting thing anyway, about the industry landscape in the last, really call it, five years anyway, probably even a little sooner than that is, especially in the independent side of things, there are options that check just about every box. You as the advisor choose what elements… And this gets back to your begin with the end in mind. Choose what elements of the business you like, and want to maintain control over. Choose what elements of the business you don’t, and there is probably a solution out there that works to check those boxes. Mindy Diamond: And then, that goes back to what we were saying. Even if you are 90% satisfied and 99% certain you would never make a move, if you haven’t gotten educated, in some capacity, whether it be listening to a podcast, reading articles, talking to a recruiter, talking to other firms, talking to friends and colleagues at other firms, or some combination of all of the above, in the last five years, I think you’re doing yourself a disservice. And again, not because in any way we’re trying to sell you on making a move, but because we believe knowledge is power and it looks different than it did. So make sure that you’re challenging your own assumptions, and that you’re really crystal-clear that what you believe or what you believe five years ago is still true today. Jason Diamond: This is a little bit of a gear shift, but I think there’s a tie in here. If you are an advisor now, or a point in their career, they’re wise to at least get educated, pick their heads up, understand what’s out there. But then, there’s the question of, “When is due diligence done?” But I’m going to frame this through a different lens here, which is, “Now, I’m an advisor, I’ve done due diligence, I’ve talked to maybe three to five strategic firms.” Is there typically an aha moment when an advisor says, “Oh, my god. It’s RBC, and I need to go that way and I know I need to move”? Or is it more process driven than that? What are your thoughts? Because I think a lot of advisors struggle with that. And I often find myself telling advisors, “Trust the process here and you’ll know when… You don’t have to know right away in the first inning of due diligence which firm or which model you’re meeting, or even if you’re going to make a move.” But curious what your thoughts are on this one. Mindy Diamond: Yeah. In fact, we hope you don’t. We hope that you don’t go into this process with preconceived notions, we hope that you don’t make a decision after one meeting, because we do think that there’s value in the process. And people get to that aha moment at different times. You and I are working with a team, right now, that is 22 meetings in. And that’s not to say every process takes 22 meetings, but the team is sort of taking it slowly. They started out looking at five or six firms. They’ve narrowed it down now to three. The goal is to get to two or one, then to get to a home office visit to the one that’s their first choice. They’re absolutely getting closer. And I’m probably exaggerating at 22 meetings, but I’m making a point, that even at this point in the game, which is probably a good, would you say, five months into the due diligence process, I don’t know that they’ve had an aha moment. They have an aha moment that they know they don’t want another wirehouse. They don’t want to be independent because the senior member of the team is exactly that person we just described, that he doesn’t have the kind of time in the business in order to make independence worthwhile- Jason Diamond: Or drive. They just don’t want independence. Mindy Diamond: Right, and the next generation doesn’t really want it. So at this point of the game, the aha moment is think we want a regional firm or a boutique firm. But it’s not an aha moment yet that it’s going to be this firm, and that’s I think a good point. A lot of times, the aha moment is the model, first, and then the firm. Jason Diamond: Sometimes, deal can be the type like, “Okay. I know I love the regional firms, but one is offering a deal that’s 100% better,” and that’s often when we actually will counsel advisors, “It’s okay to consider the deal.” The deal is a factor, as you said earlier. Mindy Diamond: If I can, that’s actually a great point. That’s the perfect example of where, “Always consider the deal, just don’t make it your primary or first consideration.” Jason Diamond: Right. Mindy Diamond: So if you’ve done all the right due diligence and two firms or two opportunities stack up next to each other perfectly, they both will allow you to move the needle significantly enough. If they both will allow you to do better for clients and grow faster, and do everything else that’s important to you, then it’s absolutely time to make deal the tiebreaker. Jason Diamond: So you threw out five months and talking about 22 meetings, let’s table that. An advisor calls you, Mindy, this morning and says, “Not unhappy, but I’m getting that itch.” Give me the average time it takes them from that first call this morning to the moment they resigned from their firm, and then give me the quickest they could do it if they needed to. Mindy Diamond: Yeah. Let me start out by saying that those calls we get from advisors come in two different categories. One is, “Yeah, getting the itch. The straw that broke the camel’s back happened yesterday when X happened.” But the other call, the one we mentioned earlier, which is, “I am 90% happy. I am growing exponentially. I get time to coach my kids’ soccer game. I have great quality of life. I have a great team. I’ve been here 30 or 40 years, and life is good. I’m watching more of my colleagues go or I’m feeling more pain,” fill in the blank for whatever that is. “Even though I’m 90% happy and I’m 100% convinced I don’t want to move, that moving is a hassle, I can’t not see the handwriting on the wall and I at least need to get educated.” So let’s assume that we get one of those calls. The reason I am calling out the difference between the two is because the time it takes to do the due diligence is usually different. If someone is already at the point where they know that they’re unhappy and likely to move, the due diligence process usually runs quicker. The due diligence process for somebody that’s mostly happy and just beginning to get curious, sort of the latter example, might take a little longer. Jason Diamond: Give me some real parameters to it. Mindy Diamond: Well, I’d love to hear what you think. What’s swirling in my head, it’s all over the map, but I’m going to say typically six months. Jason Diamond: Six months was the number I was about to throw out as well. And I think the quickest you want to do this is three months. Anything beyond that starts to be basically a fire drill. We’ve done deals quicker than that obviously, an advisor’s going to or has been terminated. But I think six months in earnest is a good, healthy timeline. Especially, by the way, because a lot of firms are busy, we’re hearing this from a lot of the firm side of things these days. Depending upon what firm you’re moving to, you need to make sure that the firm can handle you. You want to get their A team upon your breakaway and your transition, no matter what firm that is. Mindy Diamond: Do you think, Jason, that it’s six months from, “Gee, I’m a little curious. I want to start to look. I want to begin to do due diligence. What does that look like?”, to, “My butt is in a new seat”? Jason Diamond: No. Because I think in the example where you’re just like, “Eh, I’m a little unhappy,” those early innings conversations typically play out slowly because the guy who’s 90% happy is in no rush to say, “Set me up with a bunch of firms, and let’s talk about it.” In those instances, it could take a year and a half because I think what happens really there is then there’s a catalyst event that takes them from your category two to category one. Right? They went from a little unhappy, just curious, to the straw that broke the camel’s back. And that’s when then they shift into the more… or they say the firm has… A good example, UBS, upset a lot of advisors with the compensation plan. They recently walked back a lot of those changes. I’m certain there will be some advisors who say, “This is a nod to attrition. I’ve seen from management what I need to see, and I’m going to stay put.” Equally, probably plenty of advisors who say, “It’s too little too late.” Mindy Diamond: Let me say something, and again, not to make this episode at all about this team in Atlanta, but that was a ten-year conversation for us. Literally, 10 years ago, maybe even 12 years ago, but let’s say 10, one of the senior partners on the team had called to say, “Curious, really happy, doing incredibly well. Zero chance we are moving in the next year or two or five.” But look, what don’t we know? And every year, we would then have a conversation about what the landscape looked like. But I’m going to say it was six years ago when the conversation shifted from, “Really happy, convinced we’re staying,” to, “starting to think we might leave at some point,” but another six years until this really happened. Now, that’s a good example because they were going independent. The transition itself probably took a year, year and a half. Jason Diamond: And the size and complexity of the team, by the way, probably amplifies that as well. Mindy Diamond: Well, there are outliers on either side, and that’s the point I wanted to make. Correct. Jason Diamond: Very fair. I’m glad you bring that up because there’s no cookie-cutter answer. It totally depends on the makeup of the business, where you’re going, how you’re going, when you’re going. I think we have time for two more questions, and I want to make sure we get to this because we’ve talked about this through the lens of the advisor and the advisor’s team. We haven’t talked much about the client experience, and that is clearly self-portability, in general, is something that gives advisors anxiety rightfully so. I think if you could tell a lot of advisors with 100% certainty that their book would move, I think many more would be interested in moving. I think concerns about portability, a lot of times, would keep advisors in seats. I guess what I’m getting at is because that initial client conversation is so important, is there anything you coach advisors to think about or to say to clients or potential clients as they consider a change, a transition? Mindy Diamond: Well, you have to be mindful certainly of your own employment agreement and legal considerations of pre-soliciting- Jason Diamond: Important point. Mindy Diamond: No way are any of us advocating for pre-solicitation. But you do have to have a pretty good sense in your mind without asking the client specifically, who is likely to come and who not. And the determination, the sort of hypothesis or the supposition, of who will come and who will not has everything to do with where you’re going and the value proposition, “Will I be able to make a compelling enough point? Will I have compelling enough reasons where it’s not about me, the advisor, it’s about you, the clients, about how I will better be able to service them? And if I’m able to say to a client, ‘If I make a move or I’m making this move and I’m now going to be able to do X, Y, and Z for you,’ I’m much more confident that they will be able to come?” In the case of this OpenArc deal, the Atlanta team, they did a lot of retirement plan business, so they had to be really concerned about how they were going to position this move and the new brand separating from Merrill brand, how they were going to convince their Fortune 500 clients that this was the right move. So it always has to start with what’s best for clients and how will I pitch it, if you will. Jason Diamond: I love how you answered that because it’s like two different answers to me. Part one is handicapping the portability, and that’s pre-transition during the due diligence process. Honestly, if you’re an advisor, you could do that now, right? If I were to make a move, “Here’s my client who I know with 100% certainty would follow me. Here’s the maybes, here’s the no,” you come up with a weighted average portability metric. I totally agree with you on that. And then the second piece of it is you have to be constantly thinking this option might sound the best to you, but remember, and I agree, not pre-solicit, but post-transition, you’re going to have to sell it to your clients. So you need to be thinking about every conversation you have with every firm through that lens. Do you agree with that? Meaning I’m going to move my business from UBS to Morgan Stanley. You get paid a big check, but can you articulate the clients- Mindy Diamond: Yeah, 1000%. It’s such a good point because, and we’re going to give you some inside baseball here, the number one question that any advisor who is in traffic with any firm or any model needs to ask is, put words in my mouth, “If we were fast forwarding to the day I made a move and joined your firm or joined your model, help me to understand what would the pitch to my clients sound like.” And then, you need to sort of absorb that pitch from the perspective of your clients. Put yourself in the shoes of your oldest clients, of your youngest clients, of your most important clients, of your middle-of-the-road clients, of your middle net worth clients, of the institutional clients, fill in the blank, “Does that value proposition fit?” That is one of the best ways to assess whether a firm or an opportunity is better enough or good enough for you. Jason Diamond: It’s such a good answer, and I love the inside baseball look there. Also, by the way, it has this side benefit of you’re forcing the managers or the recruiters to articulate almost like a succinct value prop on their firm. Right? Tell me, hypothetically, what would I say to clients about, and you’re just picking on Morgan, “Why is Morgan Stanley better than my current firm?” And that answer ought to be compelling. In closing, I want to wrap this up with a question around the difficulty of a move. You’ve been in this business now 30 years, I think it’s almost exactly 30 years. Has it gotten easier logistically to transition? And do you see that trend continuing, let’s say, because of partially things like AI, DocuSign and the like? What are your thoughts on the nuts and bolts of transitioning? Mindy Diamond: There’s no question it’s gotten easier. There’s no question that, from a legal perspective, the advent of broker protocol certainly makes it less scary or less risky to make a move. But there are plenty of moves that are made as a non-protocol move, and that’s not always the case. And the ecosystem, I should say, has gotten better to support the advisor in transition. Legal counsel, all they do all day long is facilitate these moves. Third-party consultancies, people like us that have been at it 30 years and have seen it all, and all the mistakes have already been made, we know how to do it. But with that said, moving is a hassle. No matter how much better the support system has gotten, no matter how many times a manager or a firm has transitioned advisors, it is a hassle to move. It is disruptive. It is a lot. And again, this statement is not going to win me a place in the headhunter hall of fame, but you should absolutely not consider a move unless you have the appetite for some risk, for some breakage, meaning some loss of clients, and you’re willing to shrink to grow, and you’ve got an appetite for some hassle factor to work perhaps harder for a short period of time than you have in a while. If you don’t have that, then no matter how unhappy you are, you really need to seriously consider whether moving is the best way to solve your problems. Jason Diamond: Yeah. It’s a really great way to tie a bow on this episode. It was a lot of fun. I’m excited. I think that would be 2037 based on your 12-year timeline. So the next $129-billion team, we’ll have to schedule that episode out for 10 or 12 years from now. But Mindy, thank you so much for sharing your years of wisdom and expertise with us. This was a fantastic episode. I had a lot of fun. Mindy Diamond: Yeah, I loved it too. Thank you, my pleasure. Jason Diamond: Thank you for joining us. We'll be back with a new episode next week, so be sure to listen in. Mindy Diamond: As a financial advisor, you hold yourself to the highest standards of integrity, honesty, and credibility. You are successful because you take your professional responsibility seriously and are dedicated to your clients. But are you living your best business life? Are your goals aligned with your firms, or could a better option exist? Should I Stay or Should I Go? is a book written with you in mind. It’s a self-guided journey that walks you through the key steps that we take with our advisor clients. This strategic thought process and road map to professional self-discovery is designed to help you ask the right questions and think critically and objectively, whether you’re considering change or not. Learn how to get your copy at diamond-consultants.com/thebook.     The Advisor Transition Playbook: Inside Baseball on Due Diligence, the Move, and Everything In Between A Special Industry Update with Jason Diamond and Mindy Diamond. Jason Diamond: Welcome to a replay of one of the most popular episodes from our podcast series for financial advisors, The Advisor Transition Playbook: Inside Baseball on Due Diligence, the Move, and Everything In Between. It's Part 1 of a 2-Part Industry Update with Mindy Diamond. I’m Jason Diamond and this is the Diamond Podcast for Financial Advisors. Mindy Diamond: At Diamond Consultants, we help elite advisors identify the right environment for their businesses to thrive, whether that’s at a wirehouse, boutique, or independent firm. With nearly three decades of experience, we’ve guided thousands of advisors and represented more than a quarter of a trillion dollars in assets transitioned. And each year, one in four advisors managing a billion dollars or more, who change firms, are our clients. Our process is education driven and based on building relationships, starting as your strategic partner well before you’re even thinking of a move. To schedule a confidential conversation, call us at (908) 879-1002. Wondering why advisors change firms, and where they’re headed? Are transition deals going up or down? Those very questions and more inspired us to create our annual Advisor Transition Report. It’s the award-winning data-driven resource designed for advisors that connects the dots between the motivations around movement and the firm’s appetite for top talent. Arm yourself with the knowledge you need to make smart decisions. Download your copy at diamond-consultants.com/transitionreport. Jason Diamond: Everything about a transition can seem incredibly overwhelming. From understanding the whys of a move, then conducting due diligence, and onto aligning the right models and selecting the best firms, it might seem like a fairly linear process. And for some, it can be. But for others, the layers of minutia can be daunting. Essentially, it comes down to the adage, “You don’t know what you don’t know.” So the goal of this episode is to share some inside baseball in how to get from here to there. I asked Mindy Diamond to join me to help draw from decades of experience in helping advisors through their transitions. We’ve dived into the misconceptions, the common

Dr Adam Koontz answers a listener question about LCMS internal conflicts and why the structure of synodical polity isn't designed for the people who now comprise it. Visit our website - A Brief History of Power Sign up for Memento, a Lutheran devotional for men. Dr Adam Koontz - Redeemer Lutheran Church Music thanks to Verny

Featured Interview: This is a big month! The Muscle Car Place welcomes a brand-new sponsor to the network this month, but this partnership is about far more than advertising banners and product mentions. We’re trying to be a part of something BIG. I sat down with Bridney Jordan, Property Brands and Product Manager for Lexani, […] The post TMCP #648: Bridney Jordan and the Inside Baseball World of Tires for Daily's, Trucks and Enthusiast Rubber! first appeared on The Muscle Car Place.

How Do New MMO's Work?, Marathon has a story, The best Gaming Podcast # 587Busy week we leap into handhelds, steam sales, consoles, and even more in todays podcastThis is an "Inside Baseball" podcast episode covering:Marathon (Bungie) - Years-long story plan announced, sold ~1 million copies, which is low for Bungie but better than expected. Nobody's really talking about the story though, it's all about gameplay.Smooth Motion vs DLSS - Smooth Motion is system-level frame interpolation that doesn't require game support. DLSS requires game support or an injector. Smooth Motion can actually have lower latency in some cases.Subnautica 2 - Early access date announced. Lots of legal drama between Krafton and Unknown Worlds. Legal distractions can pull developer focus away from creative energy.A Plague Tale: Resonance/Legacy - Asobo working on a prequel with character Sofia.Mind's Eye (Build a Rocket Boy) - DLC containing names of people who "sabotaged" the game. Devs claiming they were spied on. Comparison to Days Gone's blame game. The game probably wasn't good enough to sabotage in the first place.Directive 8020 - Alien Isolation vibes, Supermassive Games, excited for the space horror feel.Lego Batman Legacy - PC specs controversy, recommended specs seemed high for a Lego game, director clarified they had to put something up for preorders.GameStop trying to buy eBay - Fascinating, weird business move.Devil Wears Prada 2 poster - Artist paid to mimic AI art. Trojan horse for normalizing AI in entertainment.Xbox record monthly active users despite not selling much hardware.Denuvo DRM crack - Hypervisor bypass, but turning off hypervisor makes your system less secure.Exodus - Smart marketing strategy with short gameplay trailers on their own YouTube channel.Outer Worlds Spacer's Choice update - Some graphical issues.Microsoft handheld / ROG Xbox Ally - Handheld market is actually very small.Project Blackbird cancellation - MMO genre is expensive and risky.Fortnite/Roblox player drops - Even small percentage drops could mean huge money redistribution to other gameJoin this channel to get access to perks:https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC5zKbGokI0oI6SeZrHTfJjA/joinSubstack https://substack.com/@acgreviewhttps://amzn.to/43LY1Gv Amazon Affiliate LinkJoin this channel to get access to perks: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC5zKbGokI0oI6SeZrHTfJjA/join Each Friday ACG and some pals Silver, Rej, Abssi, and Jonny from https://www.twitch.tv/jonnyplayslive get together to discuss games, life, books, movies and everything else. New home of the ACG Best Gaming Podcast Follow me on Twitter for reviews and info @jeremypenter-JOIN the ACG Reddit https://www.reddit.com/r/ACGVids/ https://www.patreon.com/AngryCentaurGaming

Dickie and Oliver recap some behind the scenes moments from Event Horizon!Please consider supporting us on Patreon! Patreon.com/MadBashStudios-Socials-MadBashStudios.comFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/MadBashStudios-MadBash Studios is powered by-patreon.com/MadBashStudiosVenom Energy: https://www.venomenergy.com/Music: "Deep and Dirty" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com, Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 Licensehttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Support the show

Finally! Some good news! First, we're trying out a new format! Also, Will "the Thrill" Ireton has an Instagram and Mets broadcaster Gary Cohen mistakes Hyeseong Kim for Yoshinobu Yamamoto. 9:21 - Welcome to our new segment, INSIDE BASEBALL, where we get into the nitty gritty of the stats and specifics. First, we chat position players: Masataka Yoshida hits his first career walk off and extends the Green Monsta City Connect streak, Kazuma Okamoto looks loose, Munetaka Murakami looks like Kyle Schwarber, and Team Korea's Jahmai Jones and Shay Whitcomb both finally make the starting lineup and homer.27:47 - Ohtani transition! His on-base streak continues, he signs a ball for a 100-year-old survivor of Nagasaki, the Angels exclude him from their 60 year celebration video, and his first outing as a pitcher only is, of course, impressive. 38:00 - INSIDE BASEBALL: PITCHING debuts and we break down Bryan Woo and balks, Shota Imanaga's impressive outings, Yusei Kikuchi's ups and downs, and pray to the baseball gods that Kodai Senga and Roki Sasaki figure something out.52:01 - New segment! We dive into a cultural aspect of the Asians in Baseball Cinematic Universe. This week, we discuss Tatsuya Imai and the struggle of players transitioning from NPB/KBO (Japan and Korea's leagues) to MLB. Let us know what you think and throw out some name suggestions in the comments!

A deluxe edition of The Sprina Sessions is live! Join Keila and Jasmine as they discuss all things Beyond The Gates and Trina Robinson on General Hospital. The Rundown Includes: Hayley poisons Bill against Tomas, Ted and Shanice reach a new understanding in their relationship, Vanessa tries and fails to explain it all to Deanna and Donnell, Double Date Night From Hell- Uptown Edition, Fairmont Crest celebrates Easter Sunday, Trina is a noted Little League Baseball Specialist for reasons, and Trina and Kai unknowingly put themselves on Black Willow's radar. The show wraps with Trina Speculations for the week ahead and the Song Picks of the Week. Enjoy! Sprina Sessions Playlist Song Selections Leave The Door Open - Silk Sonic Use Me - PVRISSplit Personality - P!nkFUFN - JadeNot Myself Tonight - Christina Aguilera Follow Keila on X and Blue Sky: https://x.com/LadyWrestlingXhttps://bsky.app/profile/ladywrestlingx.bsky.socialFollow Jasmine on X and Blue Sky: https://x.com/twin_fangirlhttps://bsky.app/profile/twinfangirl.bsky.socialCreate your podcast today! #madeonzencastr

After being asked personally by Charli XCX to play record executive Tammy in “The Moment,” she couldn't say no. Rosanna joins me to talk about her sharp and satirical new film; being a part of the Arquette acting dynasty; appearing in such iconic movies as “Desperately Seeking Susan,” “Pulp Fiction,” and “After Hours,” and how she came back from a rough few years, weathering personal and professional storms. 00:00 Rosanna Arquette Joins the Group Text 01:00 Getting Cast by Charli XCX 01:30 “What Even Is Brat Summer?” 02:20 Satirizing the Music Industry 03:30 Playing a Ruthless Record Executive 04:25 “It's Only About the Money” 05:34 Hollywood Takes Itself Too Seriously 06:26 Improvisation vs Scripted Acting 07:16 Inside Baseball or For Everyone? 08:18 Throwing People Under the Bus 09:08 Anxiety Before Every Project 10:27 Working With Tarantino & Scorsese 11:56 Brain Fog, Aging & Hormones 12:25 Why Rosanna Won't Do Hormone Therapy 13:49 Growing Up in the Arquette Family 15:02 Losing Alexis & Family Trauma 16:47 The Arquette Family Group Text 17:56 Dating, Divorce & Starting Over 19:14 Why She'll Never Use Dating Apps 21:48 Being an “Unhinged” Mom 22:04 Protecting Her Daughter From Hollywood 23:15 Culture, Accountability & Resistance 23:38 Leaving Hollywood to Heal 26:05 Two Houses, Not One 26:52 Not Being Invited to Her Own Premiere 28:17 Full-Circle Hollywood Irony 29:12 Final Thoughts & What's Next This is another Hurrdat Media Production. Hurrdat Media is a podcast network and digital media production company based in Omaha, NE. Find more podcasts on the Hurrdat Media Network by going to HurrdatMedia.com or the Hurrdat Media YouTube channel! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

"NO, I DON'T HAVE A SOUP!" After the Death Metal Jeremy Show dominated the production meeting, Dan is up to his normal shit-stirring ways, forcing Zas and Greg to feud over words uttered on The Greg Cote Show with Greg Cote. Also, did you know the new Curt Flood is going to quarterback Miami in the Game of the Century this fall? Today's cast: Dan, Greg, Zaslow, Chris, Jeremy, Mike, and Roy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Ściągnij odcinekAdwent 2025 UWAGA MÓWIMY O PENISACH. I przeklinamy.wersja youtube:Notki:- Chainsawman Reze Arc- Good Newshttps://www.imdb.com/title/tt33550069/- Wall to Wallhttps://www.imdb.com/title/tt32237537/- Wrooklyn Zoohttps://www.imdb.com/title/tt27971488/?ref_=fn_t_1- Natchez (2025) - docs AFFhttps://www.imdb.com/title/tt36589943/- Predators (2025)https://www.imdb.com/title/tt34963732- Children of Time- Adrian Tchaikovsky- Wake Up Dead Man - Knives Outhttps://www.imdb.com/title/tt14364480/ - Pluribus s1 e1 —- too slooooooooow- Office PL S5- Algorytm Miłości- Rimworld- Bloodlines 2muzyka w intro:http://freemusicarchive.org/music/American_Ice_Age/MMXIII/01_Vendetta_Kind_Of_Mood

Ściągnij odcinekAdwent 2025 UWAGA MÓWIMY O PENISACH. I przeklinamy.wersja youtube:W tym odcinku: kapliczka Latającego Potwora Spaghettimuzyka w intro:http://freemusicarchive.org/music/American_Ice_Age/MMXIII/01_Vendetta_Kind_Of_Mood

Ściągnij odcinekAdwent 2025 UWAGA MÓWIMY O PENISACH. I przeklinamy.wersja youtube:W tym odcinku: człowiek z sygnalizacją na głowie!muzyka w intro:http://freemusicarchive.org/music/American_Ice_Age/MMXIII/01_Vendetta_Kind_Of_Mood

Ściągnij odcinekAdwent 2025 UWAGA MÓWIMY O PENISACH. I przeklinamy.wersja youtube:W tym odcinku: trainsurfing!muzyka w intro:http://freemusicarchive.org/music/American_Ice_Age/MMXIII/01_Vendetta_Kind_Of_Mood

Ściągnij odcinekAdwent 2025 UWAGA MÓWIMY O PENISACH. I przeklinamy.wersja youtube:W tym odcinku: gwiazdy rebrandingu!muzyka w intro:http://freemusicarchive.org/music/American_Ice_Age/MMXIII/01_Vendetta_Kind_Of_Mood

Ściągnij odcinekAdwent 2025 UWAGA MÓWIMY O PENISACH. I przeklinamy.wersja youtube:W tym odcinku: żelki!muzyka w intro:http://freemusicarchive.org/music/American_Ice_Age/MMXIII/01_Vendetta_Kind_Of_Mood

Ściągnij odcinekAdwent 2025 UWAGA MÓWIMY O PENISACH. I przeklinamy.wersja youtube:W tym odcinku: słuchawki dla Mateusza!muzyka w intro:http://freemusicarchive.org/music/American_Ice_Age/MMXIII/01_Vendetta_Kind_Of_Mood

Ściągnij odcinekAdwent 2025 UWAGA MÓWIMY O PENISACH. I przeklinamy.wersja youtube:W tym odcinku: kotki i pieski!muzyka w intro:http://freemusicarchive.org/music/American_Ice_Age/MMXIII/01_Vendetta_Kind_Of_Mood

Ściągnij odcinekAdwent 2025 UWAGA MÓWIMY O PENISACH. I przeklinamy.wersja youtube:W tym odcinku: hulajnoga na moście!muzyka w intro:http://freemusicarchive.org/music/American_Ice_Age/MMXIII/01_Vendetta_Kind_Of_Mood

Ściągnij odcinekAdwent 2025 UWAGA MÓWIMY O PENISACH. I przeklinamy.wersja youtube:W tym odcinku: Jaguar!muzyka w intro:http://freemusicarchive.org/music/American_Ice_Age/MMXIII/01_Vendetta_Kind_Of_Mood

Ściągnij odcinekAdwent 2025 UWAGA MÓWIMY O PENISACH. I przeklinamy.wersja youtube:W tym odcinku: dobre obyczaje!muzyka w intro:http://freemusicarchive.org/music/American_Ice_Age/MMXIII/01_Vendetta_Kind_Of_Mood

Ściągnij odcinekAdwent 2025 UWAGA MÓWIMY O PENISACH. I przeklinamy.wersja youtube:W tym odcinku: Linux - część druga (koko zepsuł)!muzyka w intro:http://freemusicarchive.org/music/American_Ice_Age/MMXIII/01_Vendetta_Kind_Of_Mood

Ściągnij odcinekAdwent 2025 UWAGA MÓWIMY O PENISACH. I przeklinamy.wersja youtube:W tym odcinku: Młodzieżowe Słowo Roku- rozwiązanie!muzyka w intro:http://freemusicarchive.org/music/American_Ice_Age/MMXIII/01_Vendetta_Kind_Of_Mood

Ściągnij odcinek Adwent 2025  UWAGA MÓWIMY O PENISACH. I przeklinamy. wersja youtube: W tym odcinku: włamanie do Luwru! muzyka w intro: http://freemusicarchive.org/music/American_Ice_Age/MMXIII/01_Vendetta_Kind_Of_Mood

Ściągnij odcinek  UWAGA MÓWIMY O PENISACH. I przeklinamy. wersja youtube:W tym odcinku: młodzieżowe słowo roku - nominacje! muzyka w intro: http://freemusicarchive.org/music/American_Ice_Age/MMXIII/01_Vendetta_Kind_Of_Mood

Ściągnij odcinek  UWAGA MÓWIMY O PENISACH. I przeklinamy. wersja youtube: W tym odcinku: giereczki! Dying Light muzyka w intro: http://freemusicarchive.org/music/American_Ice_Age/MMXIII/01_Vendetta_Kind_Of_Mood

Ściągnij odcinek [miejsce na obrazek] Znalezione w otchłaniach internetu  UWAGA MÓWIMY O PENISACH. I przeklinamy. wersja youtube: NOTKI: W tym odcinku: niemiecki pielęgniarz! muzyka w intro: http://freemusicarchive.org/music/American_Ice_Age/MMXIII/01_Vendetta_Kind_Of_Mood

Welcome to "Ahead in the Count," presented by BIP Wealth. Our Baseball Division combines their collegiate and professional baseball playing experience with financial acumen to provide expertise in life on and off the field. We aim to give ballplayers and their families a better understanding about their unique lifestyle, the opportunities that come from playing this game, and insight into the complex financial world. This is "Ahead in the Count," hosted by Nolan Alexander, from BIP Wealth. In this episode, discover what makes the AFL a premier opportunity for baseball's rising stars. Learn how the league brings together the best prospects from all 30 MLB organizations to compete in a unique six-week showcase that runs from early October through November. In this episode, you'll learn: How the Arizona Fall League works and which prospects get selected The logistics of AFL participation: housing, pay, and travel arrangements Why scouts from every MLB organization attend these games The laid-back yet competitive atmosphere that makes AFL special Behind-the-scenes stories from John Hester's AFL experience playing alongside future stars like Max Scherzer How the league has evolved to include more international prospects What the AFL means for player development and trade opportunities Please like, subscribe, and rate this podcast episode of Ahead in the Count! To contact the hosts, send an email to jhester@bipwealth.com, kschmidt@bipwealth.com, cmurray@bipwealth.com, or jhermida@bipwealth.com

A guide to advisor transitions: due diligence, culture, deals, client comms,and lessons from the $129B Merrill breakaway.

Edmunds senior vice president of marketing Alison Anziska returns to the show for a discussion about the company's latest ad campaign featuring Tommy Edman of the Los Angeles Dodgers. In the spot, the aptly named Edman shows Angelenos how they can get valuations on their cars through Edmunds' upgraded vehicle appraisal tool. Anziska shares what Edmunds hopes dealers and consumers can come to understand about the vehicle appraisal process, how the Edmunds appraisal tool works and why LA is a hidden gem of car culture and the auto industry.

Episode 4604: Treasury Secretary Gives The Inside Baseball On The BBB; Live From BRICS

Fri, 16 May 2025 02:15:00 GMT http://relay.fm/downstream/95 http://relay.fm/downstream/95 Jason Snell The rise of sports as a driver in streaming, NBC's big 2026, and Netflix's live reality moves. Plus: our TV picks. [Downstream+ subscribers also get: ESPN and WB's solid branding decisions and Fox's smart strategy.] The rise of sports as a driver in streaming, NBC's big 2026, and Netflix's live reality moves. Plus: our TV picks. [Downstream+ subscribers also get: ESPN and WB's solid branding decisions and Fox's smart strategy.] clean 2324 The rise of sports as a driver in streaming, NBC's big 2026, and Netflix's live reality moves. Plus: our TV picks. [Downstream+ subscribers also get: ESPN and WB's solid branding decisions and Fox's smart strategy.] This episode of Downstream is sponsored by: Factor: Healthy, fully-prepared food delivered to your door. Guest Starring: Will Carroll Links and Show Notes: TV Picks: Will: Top Chef (Peacock) Jason: Long Way Home (Apple TV+) Get Downstream+ and don't miss a segment! Submit Feedback NBCUniversal 2025 Upfront Preview From Ads Chief Mark Marshall Are You Watching This?! Netflix Revives ‘Star Search' as Live Competition Show Netflix will show generative AI ads midway through streams in 2026 - Ars Technica (11) Under The Knife | Will Carroll | Substack

Fri, 16 May 2025 02:15:00 GMT http://relay.fm/downstream/95 http://relay.fm/downstream/95 Inside Baseball About Football 95 Jason Snell The rise of sports as a driver in streaming, NBC's big 2026, and Netflix's live reality moves. Plus: our TV picks. [Downstream+ subscribers also get: ESPN and WB's solid branding decisions and Fox's smart strategy.] The rise of sports as a driver in streaming, NBC's big 2026, and Netflix's live reality moves. Plus: our TV picks. [Downstream+ subscribers also get: ESPN and WB's solid branding decisions and Fox's smart strategy.] clean 2324 The rise of sports as a driver in streaming, NBC's big 2026, and Netflix's live reality moves. Plus: our TV picks. [Downstream+ subscribers also get: ESPN and WB's solid branding decisions and Fox's smart strategy.] This episode of Downstream is sponsored by: Factor: Healthy, fully-prepared food delivered to your door. Guest Starring: Will Carroll Links and Show Notes: TV Picks: Will: Top Chef (Peacock) Jason: Long Way Home (Apple TV+) Get Downstream+ and don't miss a segment! Submit Feedback NBCUniversal 2025 Upfront Preview From Ads Chief Mark Marshall Are You Watching This?! Netflix Revives ‘Star Search' as Live Competition Show Netflix will show generative AI ads midway through streams in 2026 - Ars Technica (11) Under The Knife | Will Carroll | Substack

To celebrate the return of Inside Baseball Week – during which we publish a barrage of stories about the lesser-known parts of game dev, the ins and outs of games journalism, and other topics so specific no other website would ever touch them – we put together a roundtable about worker-owned media featuring Aftermath's Nathan Grayson and Riley MacLeod, Defector's David Roth, 404 Media's Emanuel Maiberg, and Hell Gate's Max Rivlin-Nader. We go deep on all sorts of topics: What was the hardest part of starting a publication in this mold? How did you know when you'd found your site's voice? How do you collectively make decisions when everyone's an owner? Who handles business stuff when everyone's a writer (and, in Aftermath's case, definitely NOT a businessperson)? How do you promote the written word to a video-obsessed internet? And at what point do you, somebody who got into this business to be a journalist, have to transform yourself into at least a bit of an influencer? And perhaps most importantly, how can sites like ours work together to create a scene that provides opportunities to new voices as opposed to just cashing in on preexisting clout? Finally, we get to the topic everyone's really listening for: the awkward truth underlying podcast ad reads about people's guts not working right. Credits- Hosts: Nathan Grayson, Riley MacLeod, & special guests David Roth, Emanuel Maiberg, and Max Rivlin-Nader- Podcast Production & Ads: Multitude- Subscribe to Aftermath!About The ShowAftermath Hours is the flagship podcast of Aftermath, a worker-owned, subscription-based website covering video games, the internet, and everything that comes after from journalists who previously worked at Kotaku, Vice, and The Washington Post. Each week, games journalism veterans Luke Plunkett, Nathan Grayson, Chris Person, Riley MacLeod, and Gita Jackson – though not always all at once, because that's too many people for a podcast – break down video game news, Remember Some Games, and learn about Chris' frankly incredible number of special interests. Sometimes we even bring on guests from both inside and outside the video game industry! I don't know what else to tell you; it's a great time. Simply by reading this description, you're already wasting time that you could be spending listening to the show. Head to aftermath.site for more info. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Ben Maller (produced by Danny G.) has a fun Friday for you! Ben talks tacos & for the second consecutive season the Los Angeles Dodgers have denied a season credential to cover the team on a daily basis in 2025. Plus, Maller goes Inside Baseball on this edition, & more! ...Follow, rate & review "The Fifth Hour!" https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-fifth-hour-with-ben-maller/id1478163837 #BenMallerSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

By Walt HickeyDouble feature today!Welcome to the Numlock Sunday edition.This week, I spoke to Alissa Wilkinson who is out with the brand new book, We Tell Ourselves Stories: Joan Didion and the American Dream Machine.I'm a huge fan of Alissa, she's a phenomenal critic and I thought this topic — what happens when one of the most important American literary figures heads out to Hollywood to work on the most important American medium — is super fascinating. It's a really wonderful book and if you're a longtime Joan Didion fan or simply a future Joan Didion fan, it's a look at a really transformative era of Hollywood and should be a fun read regardless.Alissa can be found at the New York Times, and the book is available wherever books are sold.This interview has been condensed and edited. All right, Alissa, thank you so much for coming on.Yeah, thanks for having me. It's good to be back, wherever we are.Yes, you are the author of We Tell Ourselves Stories: Joan Didion and the American Dream Machine. It's a really exciting book. It's a really exciting approach, for a Joan Didion biography and placing her in the current of American mainstream culture for a few years. I guess just backing out, what got you interested in Joan Didion to begin with? When did you first get into her work?Joan Didion and I did not become acquainted, metaphorically, until after I got out of college. I studied Tech and IT in college, and thus didn't read any books, because they don't make you read books in school, or they didn't when I was there. I moved to New York right afterward. I was riding the subway. There were all these ads for this book called The Year of Magical Thinking. It was the year 2005, the book had just come out. The Year of Magical Thinking is Didion's National Book Award-winning memoir about the year after her husband died, suddenly of a heart attack in '03. It's sort of a meditation on grief, but it's not really what that sounds like. If people haven't read it's very Didion. You know, it's not sentimental, it's constantly examining the narratives that she's telling herself about grief.So I just saw these ads on the walls. I was like, what is this book that everybody seems to be reading? I just bought it and read it. And it just so happened that it was right after my father, who was 46 at the time, was diagnosed with a very aggressive leukemia, and then died shortly thereafter, which was shocking, obviously. The closer I get to that age, it feels even more shocking that he was so young. I didn't have any idea how to process that emotion or experience. The book was unexpectedly helpful. But it also introduced me to a writer who I'd never read before, who felt like she was looking at things from a different angle than everyone else.Of course, she had a couple more books come out after that. But I don't remember this distinctly, but probably what happened is I went to some bookstore, The Strand or something, and bought The White Album and Slouching Towards Bethlehem off the front table as everyone does because those books have just been there for decades.From that, I learned more, starting to understand how writing could work. I didn't realize how form and content could interact that way. Over the years, I would review a book by her or about her for one publication or another. Then when I was in graduate school, getting my MFA in nonfiction, I wrote a bit about her because I was going through a moment of not being sure if my husband and I were going to stay in New York or we were going to move to California. They sort of obligate you to go through a goodbye to all that phase if you are contemplating that — her famous essay about leaving New York. And then, we did stay in New York City. But ultimately, that's 20 years of history.Then in 2020, I was having a conversation (that was quite-early pandemic) with my agent about possible books I might write. I had outlined a bunch of books to her. Then she was like, “These all sound like great ideas. But I've always wanted to rep a book on Joan Didion. So I just wanted to put that bug in your ear.” I was like, “Oh, okay. That seems like something I should probably do.”It took a while to find an angle, which wound up being Didion in Hollywood. This is mostly because I realized that a lot of people don't really know her as a Hollywood figure, even though she's a pretty major Hollywood figure for a period of time. The more of her work I read, the more I realized that her work is fruitfully understood as the work of a woman who was profoundly influenced by (and later thinking in terms of Hollywood metaphors) whether she was writing about California or American politics or even grief.So that's the long-winded way of saying I wasn't, you know, acquainted with her work until adulthood, but then it became something that became a guiding light for me as a writer.That's really fascinating. I love it. Because again I think a lot of attention on Didion has been paid since her passing. But this book is really exciting because you came at it from looking at the work as it relates to Hollywood. What was Didion's experience in Hollywood? What would people have seen from it, but also, what is her place there?The directly Hollywood parts of her life start when she's in her 30s. She and her husband — John Gregory Dunn, also a writer and her screenwriting partner — moved from New York City, where they had met and gotten married, to Los Angeles. John's brother, Nick Dunn later became one of the most important early true crime writers at Vanity Fair, believe it or not. But at the time, he was working as a TV producer. He and his wife were there. So they moved to Los Angeles. It was sort of a moment where, you know, it's all well and good to be a journalist and a novelist. If you want to support yourself, Hollywood is where it's at.So they get there at a moment when the business is shifting from these big-budget movies — the Golden Age — to the new Hollywood, where everything is sort of gritty and small and countercultural. That's the moment they arrive. They worked in Hollywood. I mean, they worked literally in Hollywood for many years after that. And then in Hollywood even when they moved back to New York in the '80s as screenwriters still.People sometimes don't realize that they wrote a bunch of produced screenplays. The earliest was The Panic in Needle Park. Obviously, they adapted Didion's novel Play It As It Lays. There are several others, but one that a lot of people don't realize they wrote was the version of A Star is Born that stars Barbra Streisand and Kris Kristofferson. It was their idea to shift the Star is Born template from Hollywood entities to rock stars. That was their idea. Of course, when Bradley Cooper made his version, he iterated on that. So their work was as screenwriters but also as figures in the Hollywood scene because they were literary people at the same time that they were screenwriters. They knew all the actors, and they knew all the producers and the executives.John actually wrote, I think, two of the best books ever written on Hollywood decades apart. One called The Studio, where he just roamed around on the Fox backlot. For a year for reasons he couldn't understand, he got access. That was right when the catastrophe that was Dr. Doolittle was coming out. So you get to hear the inside of the studio. Then later, he wrote a book called Monster, which is about their like eight-year long attempt to get their film Up Close and Personal made, which eventually they did. It's a really good look at what the normal Hollywood experience was at the time: which is like: you come up with an idea, but it will only vaguely resemble the final product once all the studios get done with it.So it's, it's really, that's all very interesting. They're threaded through the history of Hollywood in that period. On top of it for the book (I realized as I was working on it) that a lot of Didion's early life is influenced by especially her obsession with John Wayne and also with the bigger mythology of California and the West, a lot of which she sees as framed through Hollywood Westerns.Then in the '80s, she pivoted to political reporting for a long while. If you read her political writing, it is very, very, very much about Hollywood logic seeping into American political culture. There's an essay called “Inside Baseball” about the Dukakis campaign that appears in Political Fictions, her book that was published on September 11, 2001. In that book, she writes about how these political campaigns are directed and set up like a production for the cameras and how that was becoming not just the campaign, but the presidency itself. Of course, she had no use for Ronald Reagan, and everything she writes about him is very damning. But a lot of it was because she saw him as the embodiment of Hollywood logic entering the political sphere and felt like these are two separate things and they need to not be going together.So all of that appeared to me as I was reading. You know, once you see it, you can't unsee it. It just made sense for me to write about it. On top of it, she was still alive when I was writing the proposal and shopping it around. So she actually died two months after we sold the book to my publisher. It meant I was extra grateful for this angle because I knew there'd be a lot more books on her, but I wanted to come at it from an angle that I hadn't seen before. So many people have written about her in Hollywood before, but not quite through this lens.Yeah. What were some things that you discovered in the course of your research? Obviously, she's such an interesting figure, but she's also lived so very publicly that I'm just super interested to find out what are some of the things that you learned? It can be about her, but it can also be the Hollywood system as a whole.Yeah. I mean, I didn't interview her for obvious reasons.Understandable, entirely understandable.Pretty much everyone in her life also is gone with the exception really of Griffin Dunn, who is her nephew, John's nephew, the actor. But other than that, it felt like I needed to look at it through a critical lens. So it meant examining a lot of texts. A lot of Didion's magazine work (which was a huge part of her life) is published in the books that people read like Slouching Towards Bethlehem and The White Album and all the other books. What was interesting to me was discovering (I mean, not “discovering” because other people have read it) that there is some work that's not published and it's mostly her criticism.Most of that criticism was published in the late '50s and the early '60s when she was living in New York City, working at Vogue and trying to make it in the literary scene that was New York at that time, which was a very unique place. I mean, she was writing criticism and essays for both, you know, like National Review and The Nation at the same time, which was just hard to conceive of today. It was something you'd do back then. Yeah, wild stuff.A lot of that criticism was never collected into books. The most interesting is that she'd been working at Vogue for a long time in various positions, but she wound up getting added to the film critic column at Vogue in, '62, I want to say, although I might have that date slightly off. She basically alternated weeks with another critic for a few years, writing that until she started writing in movies proper. It's never a great idea to be a critic and a screenwriter at the same time.Her criticism is fascinating. So briefly, for instance, she shared that column with Pauline Kael. Pauline Kael became well known after she wrote about Bonnie and Clyde. This was prior to that. This is several years prior to that. They also hated each other for a long time afterward, which is funny, because, in some ways, their style is very different but their persona is actually very similar. So I wonder about that.But in any case, even when she wasn't sharing the column with Pauline Kael, it was a literal column in a magazine. So it's like one column of text, she can say barely anything. She was always a bit of a contrarian, but she was actively not interested in the things that were occupying New York critics at the time. Things like the Auteur Theory, what was happening in France, the downtown scene and the Shirley Clark's of the world. She had no use for it. At some point, she accuses Billy Wilder of having really no sense of humor, which is very funny.When you read her criticism, you see a person who is very invested in a classical notion of Hollywood as a place that shows us fantasies that we can indulge in for a while. She talks in her very first column about how she doesn't really need movies to be masterpieces, she just wants them to have moments. When she says moments, she means big swelling things that happen in a movie that make her feel things.It's so opposite, I think, to most people's view of Didion. Most people associate her with this snobbish elitism or something, which I don't think is untrue when we're talking about literature. But for her, the movies were like entertainment, and entering that business was a choice to enter that world. She wasn't attempting to elevate the discourse or something.I just think that's fascinating. She also has some great insights there. But as a film critic, I find myself disagreeing with most of her reviews. But I think that doesn't matter. It was more interesting to see how she conceived of the movies. There is a moment later on, in another piece that I don't think has been republished anywhere from the New York Review of Books, where she writes about the movies of Woody Allen. She hates them. It's right at the point where he's making like Manhattan and Annie Hall, like the good stuff. She just has no use for them. It's one of the funniest pieces. I won't spoil the ending because it's hilarious, and it's in the book.That writing was of huge interest to me and hasn't been republished in books. I was very grateful to get access to it, in part because it is in the archives — the electronic archives of the New York Public Library. But at the time, the library was closed. So I had to call the library and have a librarian get on Zoom with me for like an hour and a half to figure out how I could get in the proverbial back door of the library to get access while the library wasn't open.That's magnificent. That's such a cool way to go to the archives because some stuff just hasn't been published. If it wasn't digitized, then it's not digitized. That's incredible.Yeah, it's there, but you can barely print them off because they're in PDFs. They're like scanned images that are super high res, so the printer just dies when you try to print them. It's all very fascinating. I hope it gets republished at some point because I think there's enough interest in her work that it's fascinating to see this other aspect of her taste and her persona.It's really interesting that she seems to have wanted to meet the medium where it is, right? She wasn't trying to literary-up Hollywood. I mean, LA can be a bit of a friction. It's not exactly a literary town in the way that some East Coast metropolises can be. It is interesting that she was enamored by the movies. Do you want to speak about what things were like for her when she moved out?Yeah, it is funny because, at the same time, the first two movies that they wrote and produced are The Panic in Needle Park, which is probably the most new Hollywood movie you can imagine. It's about addicts at Needle Park, which is actually right where the 72nd Street subway stop is on the Upper West Side. If people have been there, it's hard to imagine. But that was apparently where they all sat around, and there were a lot of needles. It's apparently the first movie supposedly where someone shoots up live on camera.So it was the '70s. That's amazing.Yes, and it launched Al Pacino's film career! Yeah, it's wild. You watch it and you're just like, “How is this coming from the woman who's about all this arty farty stuff in the movies.” And Play It As It Lays has a very similar, almost avant-garde vibe to it. It's very, very interesting. You see it later on in the work that they made.A key thing to remember about them (and something I didn't realize before I started researching the book)was that Didion and Dunn were novelists who worked in journalism because everybody did. They wrote movies, according to them (you can only go off of what they said. A lot of it is John writing these jaunty articles. He's a very funny writer) because “we had tuition and a mortgage. This is how you pay for it.”This comes up later on, they needed to keep their WGA insurance because John had heart trouble. The best way to have health insurance was to remain in the Writers Guild. Remaining in the Writers Guild means you had to have a certain amount of work produced through union means. They were big union supporters. For them this was not, this was very strictly not an auteurist undertaking. This was not like, “Oh, I'm gonna go write these amazing screenplays that give my concept of the world to the audience.” It's not like Bonnie and Clyding going on here. It's very like, “We wrote these based on some stories that we thought would be cool.”I like that a lot. Like the idea that A Star is Born was like a pot boiler. That's really delightful.Completely. It was totally taken away from them by Streisand and John Peters at some point. But they were like, “Yeah, I mean, you know, it happens. We still got paid.”Yeah, if it can happen to Superman, it can happen to you.It happens to everybody, you know, don't get too precious about it. The important thing is did your novel come out and was it supported by its publisher?So just tracing some of their arcs in Hollywood. Obviously, Didion's one of the most influential writers of her generation, there's a very rich literary tradition. Where do we see her footprint, her imprint in Hollywood? What are some of the ways that we can see her register in Hollywood, or reverberate outside of it?In the business itself, I don't know that she was influential directly. What we see is on the outside of it. So a lot of people were friends. She was like a famous hostess, famous hostess. The New York Public Library archives are set to open at the end of March, of Didion and Dunn's work, which was like completely incidental to my publication date. I just got lucky. There's a bunch of screenplays in there that they worked on that weren't produced. There's also her cookbooks, and I'm very excited to go through those and see that. So you might meet somebody there.Her account of what the vibe was when the Manson murders occurred, which is published in her essay The White Album, is still the one people talk about, even though there are a lot of different ways to come at it. That's how we think about the Manson murders: through her lens. Later on, when she's not writing directly about Hollywood anymore (and not really writing in Hollywood as much) but instead is writing about the headlines, about news events, about sensationalism in the news, she becomes a great media critic. We start to see her taking the things that she learned (having been around Hollywood people, having been on movie sets, having seen how the sausage is made) and she starts writing about politics. In that age, it is Hollywood's logic that you perform for the TV. We have the debates suddenly becoming televised, the conventions becoming televised, we start to see candidates who seem specifically groomed to win because they look good on TV. They're starting to win and rule the day.She writes about Newt Gingrich. Of course, Gingrich was the first politician to figure out how to harness C-SPAN to his own ends — the fact that there were TV cameras on the congressional floor. So she's writing about all of this stuff at a time when you can see other people writing about it. I mean, Neil Postman famously writes about it. But the way Didion does it is always very pegged to reviewing somebody's book, or she's thinking about a particular event, or she's been on the campaign plane or something like that. Like she's been on the inside, but with an outsider's eye.That also crops up in, for instance, her essays. “Sentimental Journeys” is one of her most famous ones. That one's about the case of the Central Park Five, and the jogger who was murdered. Of course, now, we're many decades out from that, and the convictions were vacated. We know about coerced confessions. Also Donald Trump arrives in the middle of that whole thing.But she's actually not interested in the guilt or innocence question, because a lot of people were writing about that. She's interested in how the city of New York and the nation perform themselves for themselves, seeing themselves through the long lens of a movie and telling themselves stories about themselves. You see this over and over in her writing, no matter what she's writing about. I think once she moved away from writing about the business so much, she became very interested in how Hollywood logic had taken over American public life writ large.That's fascinating. Like, again, she spends time in the industry, then basically she can only see it through that lens. Of course, Michael Dukakis in a tank is trying to be a set piece, of course in front of the Berlin Wall, you're finally doing set decoration rather than doing it outside of a brick wall somewhere. You mentioned the New York thing in Performing New York. I have lived in the city for over a decade now. The dumbest thing is when the mayor gets to wear the silly jacket whenever there's a snowstorm that says “Mr. Mayor.” It's all an act in so many ways. I guess that political choreography had to come from somewhere, and it seems like she was documenting a lot of that initial rise.Yeah, I think she really saw it. The question I would ask her, if I could, is how cognizant she was that she kept doing that. As someone who's written for a long time, you don't always recognize that you have the one thing you write about all the time. Other people then bring it up to you and you're like, “Oh, I guess you're right.” Even when you move into her grief memoir phase, which is how I think about the last few original works that she published, she uses movie logic constantly in those.I mean, The Year of Magical Thinking is a cyclical book, she goes over the same events over and over. But if you actually look at the language she's using, she talks about running the tape back, she talks about the edit, she talks about all these things as if she's running her own life through how a movie would tell a story. Maybe she knew very deliberately. She's not a person who does things just haphazardly, but it has the feeling of being so baked into her psyche at this point that she would never even think of trying to escape it.Fascinating.Yeah, that idea that you don't know what you are potentially doing, I've thought about that. I don't know what mine is. But either way. It's such a cool way to look at it. On a certain level, she pretty much succeeded at that, though, right? I think that when people think about Joan Didion, they think about a life that freshens up a movie, right? Like, it workedVery much, yeah. I'm gonna be really curious to see what happens over the next 10 years or so. I've been thinking about figures like Sylvia Plath or women with larger-than-life iconography and reputation and how there's a constant need to relook at their legacies and reinvent and rethink and reimagine them. There's a lot in the life of Didion that I think remains to be explored. I'm really curious to see where people go with it, especially with the opening of these archives and new personal information making its way into the world.Yeah, even just your ability to break some of those stories that have been locked away in archives out sounds like a really exciting addition to the scholarship. Just backing out a little bit, we live in a moment in which the relationship between pop culture and political life is fairly directly intertwined. Setting aside the steel-plated elephant in the room, you and I are friendly because we bonded over this idea that movies really are consequential. Coming out of this book and coming out of reporting on it, what are some of the relevances for today in particular?Yeah, I mean, a lot more than I thought, I guess, five years ago. I started work on the book at the end of Trump One, and it's coming out at the beginning of Trump Two, and there was this period in the middle of a slightly different vibe. But even then I watch TikTok or whatever. You see people talk about “main character energy” or the “vibe shift” or all of romanticizing your life. I would have loved to read a Didion essay on the way that young people sort of view themselves through the logic of the screens they have lived on and the way that has shaped America for a long time.I should confirm this, I don't think she wrote about Obama, or if she did, it was only a little bit. So her political writing ends in George W. Bush's era. I think there's one piece on Obama, and then she's writing about other things. It's just interesting to think about how her ideas of what has happened to political culture in America have seeped into the present day.I think the Hollywood logic, the cinematic logic has given way to reality TV logic. That's very much the logic of the Trump world, right? Still performing for cameras, but the cameras have shifted. The way that we want things from the cameras has shifted, too. Reality TV is a lot about creating moments of drama where they may or may not actually exist and bombarding you with them. I think that's a lot of what we see and what we feel now. I have to imagine she would think about it that way.There is one interesting essay that I feel has only recently been talked about. It's at the beginning of my book, too. It was in a documentary, and Gia Tolentino wrote about it recently. It's this essay she wrote in 2000 about Martha Stewart and about Martha Stewart's website. It feels like the 2000s was like, “What is this website thing? Why are people so into it?” But really, it's an essay about parasocial relationships that people develop (with women in particular) who they invent stories around and how those stories correspond to greater American archetypes. It's a really interesting essay, not least because I think it's an essay also about people's parasocial relationships with Joan Didion.So the rise of her celebrity in the 21st century, where people know who she is and carry around a tote bag, but don't really know what they're getting themselves into is very interesting to me. I think it is also something she thought about quite a bit, while also consciously courting it.Yeah, I mean, that makes a ton of sense. For someone who was so adept at using cinematic language to describe her own life with every living being having a camera directly next to them at all times. It seems like we are very much living in a world that she had at least put a lot of thought into, even if the technology wasn't around for her to specifically address it.Yes, completely.On that note, where can folks find the book? Where can folks find you? What's the elevator pitch for why they ought to check this out? Joan Didion superfan or just rather novice?Exactly! I think this book is not just for the fans, let me put it that way. Certainly, I think anyone who considers themselves a Didion fan will have a lot to enjoy here. The stuff you didn't know, hadn't read or just a new way to think through her cultural impact. But also, this is really a book that's as much for people who are just interested in thinking about the world we live in today a little critically. It's certainly a biography of American political culture as much as it is of Didion. There's a great deal of Hollywood history in there as well. Thinking about that sweep of the American century and change is what the book is doing. It's very, very, very informed by what I do in my day job as a movie critic at The New York Times. Thinking about what movies mean, what do they tell us about ourselves? I think this is what this book does. I have been told it's very fun to read. So I'm happy about that. It's not ponderous at all, which is good. It's also not that long.It comes out March 11th from Live Right, which is a Norton imprint. There will be an audiobook at the end of May that I am reading, which I'm excited about. And I'll be on tour for a large amount of March on the East Coast. Then in California, there's a virtual date, and there's a good chance I'll be popping up elsewhere all year, too. Those updates will be on my social feeds, which are all @alissawilkinson on whatever platform except X, which is fine because I don't really post there anymore.Alyssa, thank you so much for coming on.Thank you so much.Edited by Crystal Wang.If you have anything you'd like to see in this Sunday special, shoot me an email. Comment below! Thanks for reading, and thanks so much for supporting Numlock.Thank you so much for becoming a paid subscriber! Send links to me on Twitter at @WaltHickey or email me with numbers, tips or feedback at walt@numlock.news. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.numlock.com/subscribe

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Join dental entrepreneurs George Hariri, Matt Guarino, and Matt Ford as they break down the realities of running their national DSO, Shared Practices Group. They tackle the triumphs and tribulations of scaling a business, answer your burning questions (submit yours at bdppod.com), and delve into life's other adventures - from health and parenting to sports and politics. It's business, banter, and everything in between. Tune in and join the BDP community today!

In today's episode Austin Federa (Head of Strategy at Solana Foundation) and Ekram Ahmed (CMO of Celestia) - break down what actually works in crypto marketing. They discuss why Web2 marketing principles fail in crypto, reveal how Solana and Celestia developed their distinct narrative positions, and explain what most projects get wrong about crisis communications and community building. The conversation covers everything from the "modular vs monolithic" narrative war to why marketing agencies rarely work in crypto. Thanks for listening! - - Start your day with crypto news, analysis and data from Katherine Ross and David Canellis. Subscribe to the Empire newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire?utm_source=podcasts Follow Ekram: https://x.com/ekrahm Follow Austin: https://x.com/austin_federa Follow Jason: https://x.com/JasonYanowitz Follow Santiago: https://twitter.com/santiagoroel Follow Empire: https://twitter.com/theempirepod Subscribe on YouTube: https://tinyurl.com/4fdhhb2j Subscribe on Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mv4frfv7ww Subscribe on Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/wbaypprw Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ - - Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 04:54 Crypto vs Web2 Marketing 10:29 Creating a Brand in Crypto 36:44 Building Narratives 43:56 Genius of Modular 52:07 When to Pivot? 58:09 Hiring Marketers 01:09:58 Crisis Management 01:19:21 Value of KOLs - - Disclaimer: Nothing said on Empire is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Santiago, Jason, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

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Join dental entrepreneurs George Hariri, Matt Guarino, and Matt Ford as they break down the realities of running their national DSO, Shared Practices Group. They tackle the triumphs and tribulations of scaling a business, answer your burning questions (submit yours at bdppod.com), and delve into life's other adventures - from health and parenting to sports and politics. It's business, banter, and everything in between. Tune in and join the BDP community today!  

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Get our free real estate course and newsletter: GRE Letter Our core formula here at GRE is simple, buy-and-hold real estate. Then where does your profit come from? I explain. Where will your next tenant come from? Essentially, market intelligence analyst Rick Sharga & I answer this today. We explore job growth, wage growth, and the condition of today's consumer / tenant.  Rick Sharga doesn't believe that mortgage rates will fall substantially until the Fed Funds Rate does. This isn't likely to happen until at least June. Consumers are exhibiting some distress signals. Credit card debt has swelled. We break it down. Many economic indicators still show that they'll still be an economic slowdown.  In most recessions, home sales and home prices both rise. Resources mentioned: Show Page: GetRichEducation.com/495 Inquire about business with Rick: CJPatrick.com Rick Sharga on X: @ricksharga LinkedIn: Rick Sharga For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  Top Properties & Providers: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREmarketplace.com/Coach Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Keith's personal Instagram: @keithweinhold   Complete episode transcript:   Keith Weinhold (00:00:00) - Welcome to gray. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. We aren't fooling around on April Fool's Day. How can you be assured of having rent paying tenants in the future? That's dictated by the economy, job growth and real wage growth above inflation. Well, how exactly does all that relate to the housing market? We break it down today with an expert guest on Get Rich Education. When you want the best real estate and finance info, the modern internet experience limits your free articles access, and it's replete with paywalls. And you've got pop ups and push notifications and cookies. Disclaimers are. At no other time in history has it been more vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that actually adds no hype value to your life? See, this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor and it's to the point to get the letter. It couldn't be more simple. Text GRE to 66866. And when you start the free newsletter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate course completely free.   Keith Weinhold (00:01:16) - It's called the Don't Quit Your Daydream letter and it wires your mind for wealth. Make sure you read it. Text GRE to 66866. Text GRE to 66866.   Corey Coates (00:01:33) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold (00:01:49) - What category? You're listening to one of America's longest running in most listened to shows on real estate investing, the Voice of Real Estate since 2014. This is get rich education. I'm your host. My name is Keith Weinhold, and you probably know that by now. But what we never truly know is the direction of the economy and how it shapes the housing market. Well, an expert and I are putting our heads together for you today to give you the best indication that we possibly can. I'll be with us shortly. And he is coming, armed with all of his best indicators and statistics. Last week here on the show, I got somewhat philosophical with you at times when I posited the question, do you want to retire? And I helped answer the question, what is retirement today anyway? I had a lot of good feedback on that show, but today we're talking about more concrete indicators with some numbers.   Keith Weinhold (00:02:50) - For example, historically in a recession, what really happens to real estate prices? We're going to answer that and more questions like it today. Now, I like to say that wealthy people's money either starts out in real estate or ends up in real estate, but there are so many ways to do it, so many ways to do real estate right? Hence so many ways to do it wrong as well. Our formula that we use here at GRE more than any other, is something we use because it is so simple that I think some people overlook it. It is buy and hold. Yeah, mostly long term buy and hold residential rentals. Now, we sure talk about some other things too, but that's really a cheap formula, something that we focused on since day one here. Now there surely can be some other good strategies as long as you execute, right? Flipping, wholesaling, Oreos, the birth strategy, self-storage units, RV parks and a lot more. But with buy and hold, I think some people know the real estate.   Keith Weinhold (00:03:58) - They might then ask, well, well where's your margin on that? Where does your profit come from if you just buy and hold? Or they might even think that that strategy is really slow and a 40 year game plan. Well, then they learn about the five ways and that changes that. It's largely about buying strategically and then managing your manager. I think most people dream of a life where they can just spend their time remotely managing their investments here and there. Now, for me, most months, I don't have anything to do with managing a property manager in a certain market. I just get the cash flow and then I do browse the monthly property statement. Some months had only been do that because from the amount of cash flow received, I can often see that nothing really went wrong for the month because from the amount of cash flow received, I can often see that nothing really went wrong for the month. Tax benefits as one of the five ways you're paid. That takes some management to and you know this tax time of year with my bookkeeper.   Keith Weinhold (00:05:11) - At times she emails me and asks me for this and that scrap of information. The mindset that helped me manage all the generous tax benefits of real estate is not taking my bookkeepers questions as an occasional annoyance, but rather taking the mindset of tax benefits or something that you can manage throughout the year. And that way when my bookkeeper goes an entire month without asking me for something, it can feel like a short break. Sort of like something was turned off for a month. And hey, first world problems, right? Downloading a document and emailing it to your bookkeeper ten minutes a month., today is also talking about where your next tenant is coming from, which really, at the end of the day, is what a real estate economics discussion is about. Well, it's also about giving tenants the housing that they want, meeting their desired lifestyle and the set of amenities that are both going to attract your renter in the first place and then retain your renter over the long term every year. Building,, the property management software company, they ask thousands of renters which amenities and property layouts would motivate them to choose one rental property over another.   Keith Weinhold (00:06:33) - That's what they're asking tenants. And what you imagine that renters might want could be different from the reality. For years now, renters are prioritizing their neighborhood quality. In the amenities that are actually inside the rental unit. Those things are more important than they are the shared community amenities like a pool, lobby, clubhouse or gym. Renters are gravitating toward neighborhoods that are safe and quiet, but yet are still convenient to stores and restaurants. And that led to half of the renters surveyed to rental properties that are located in the suburbs. Now, when it comes to the amenities within their rental unit that they're prioritizing, renters want a space with kind of all those comforts of home air conditioning and a washer and dryer to the option to own a pet. And these are the feature types of single family rentals, although some newer apartments can meet that too. And some condos community amenities. Then like a fitness center or a pool. I mean, they still hold some appeal to residents in these surveys, but lately they're seen more merely as perks instead of necessities for today's cost conscious renters.   Keith Weinhold (00:07:55) - So the bottom line here with this survey is that it's what's actually inside the unit that's become more important. And maybe that's a little too bad as people tend to get less social. They're using community areas less, they're prioritizing them less. And hey, maybe they just want to lie on the sofa and scroll their phone in a nice, comfortable place. Hey, you've got a suit and fit the world as it is, not as the way that you wanted to be, at least when you're providing others with housing. Hey, coming up here both on the show and on our YouTube channel, why do Western US homes cost more than eastern US homes on average? This seems geographically paradoxical. It feels backwards to a lot of people, because almost two thirds of the United States lives east of the Mississippi River, and yet that area comprises just over one third of all the land. You've got almost two thirds of people living on just over one third of all the land in the East. So to some more people on less area, oh, that would have to mean that eastern home prices are more costly.   Keith Weinhold (00:09:09) - No, it is exactly the opposite. In fact, coming up on a future show, I'll share eight plus reasons why. This is why Western US homes cost more than eastern ones. And this is also why many of the best cash flow markets, they tend to be in the eastern half of the US. They have those lower purchase prices also coming up in the future. I'm about to have a talk. This talk isn't going to be on the show here, but a talk with a conventional financial advisor about my own personal retirement. I've got an appointment with this person and this ought to be interesting. We'll see what he says about my situation. I'll try not to lecture him on how financially free beats debt free or anything like that. We'll see if I can hold off doing that. And if that meeting produces some interesting takeaways or just humorous ones, I'm going to share that with you in the future. And if you want to be sure to hear those upcoming episodes on subjects like that, I invite you to follow the show here on your favorite podcast.   Keith Weinhold (00:10:17) - And that way you won't miss any upcoming episodes. I only met today's guest about two years ago. We enjoyed that conversation and now we collaborate regularly. He helps provide crucial market updates that straight ahead. I'm Keith Reinhold, you're listening to episode 495 of get Rich education. You know, I'll just tell you, for the most passive part of my real estate investing, personally, I put my own dollars with Freedom Family Investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in returns, or better than a bank savings account up to 12%. Their minimums are as low as 25 K. You don't even need to be accredited for some of them. It's all backed by real estate. And I kind of love how the tax benefit of doing this can offset capital gains and your W-2 jobs income. And they've always given me exactly their stated return paid on time. So it's steady income, no surprises while I'm sleeping or just doing the things I love. For a little insider tip, I've invested in their power fund to get going on that text family to 66866.   Keith Weinhold (00:11:31) - Oh, and this isn't a solicitation. If you want to invest where I do, just go ahead and text family to six, 686, six. Role under the specific expert with income property you need. Ridge lending Group Nmls 42056. In gray history from beginners to veterans, they provided our listeners with more mortgages than anyone. It's where I get my own loans for single family rentals up to four Plex's. Start your pre-qualification and chat with President Charlie Ridge personally. They'll even customize a plan tailored to you for growing your portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending group.com Ridge lending group.com. This is Rich dad advisor Tom Wheelwright. Listen to get Rich education with Keith Reinhold and don't quit your daydream. You are going to get a fantastic real estate market update today, and you'll also learn lessons if you're consuming this 5 or 10 years from now. Our expert guest has been the executive VP of markets. Some of America's leading housing intelligence firms named it national lists of most influential real estate leaders. He's frequently quoted on real estate, mortgage and foreclosure markets, too.   Keith Weinhold (00:12:59) - He runs the real estate market intelligence firm, the C.J. Patrick Company. Hey, welcome back to Great Rick Saga. Always a pleasure to spend some time with you, Keith. Thank you for having me. Oh, same here, because, Rick, you've been with us here every six months for about two years now. You and I discussed the condition of the overall economy as well as the real estate market. I think of both of those as resilient today. Now, back when I was a new real estate investor, Rick, I didn't know to look at the broad economy at all. I was more concerned with if, say, on a vacant unit that I had, I had the drywall texture just right to try to attract a new tenant ASAP. Now that surely matters. But time gave me the perspective to know that what matters more is to have a local stable of tenants that are capable of paying the rent, and that's what matters more. So with that in mind, where would you like to begin? That's great counsel.   Keith Weinhold (00:14:03) - And it's really important for investors or even somebody looking to buy a house, understand what's going on economically, both across the country and in their region. So why don't we start by taking a look at what's going on in the economy? There's been a lot of conversation about potential recession. We can talk a bit about that, but if you're good to go, we'll start by just sharing some information about the US economy and some of the trends that we're seeing. Yeah, let's go ahead and do that. And yes, that dreaded our word may very well come up. That thing that we've all been waiting for but has never happened. Don't count your chickens just yet. But let's see what's going on. Because on average, recessions do happen every five years. It's just a normal part of the business cycle. Yeah, that's important to keep in context. I'm glad you brought that up. Recessions are a normal part of the business cycle and the economic cycle. We may be slightly overdue to have one at this point, although the last one that we had took very, very long to recover from, the Great Recession that started back in 2008 took a full decade to recover from, which is also very unusual.   Keith Weinhold (00:15:05) - So we'll take a look at some of these cycles and see where we are today. Keith, the basic metric that most economists look at when they're trying to figure out the strength of the US economy is is something called the gross domestic product, the GDP.   Rick Sharga (00:15:18) - We track that to see if it's growing, if it's declining. The technical definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. And there's been a lot of talk about the GDP slowing down in the US. But really it's been mostly talk. In fact, if you look at the last quarter, we have data four, which was the fourth quarter of last year. You can see that the GDP grew by 3.2 3.3%, which was a much higher number than what most economists had forecast.   Keith Weinhold (00:15:47) - That resilient economy with a low unemployment rate, jobs being added and productive growth in the GDP.   Rick Sharga (00:15:54) - Yeah, we're going to get to all of that. And it's a great point. If you look at what makes up the GDP, about two thirds of it is comprised of consumer spending, right.   Rick Sharga (00:16:04) - So typically when you see strong GDP numbers, you're consumer is doing pretty well. And a lot of this probably has to do with consumers still having money to spend from the enormous amount of stimulus that the federal government poured into the economy to help prevent a recession or depression during Covid. About $15 trillion in all of the stimulus that was sent out to consumers and businesses alike. And that's probably helped us weather the storm of what normally might have been a slowdown in the economy. We are, however, Keith, in a globally interconnected economy, and it's important to note that not all of our peers are doing quite as well. Canada may already be in a recession. The UK is almost certainly in a recession. The eurozone barely escaped going into recessionary numbers in the last quarter, and even markets like China aren't doing as well as as expected. And I'm not saying that to gloat about how well the US is doing. I'm saying that is sort of a warning that if we do get into a situation where it looks like there's a global recession going on, it's very unlikely the US will come out of that untainted at all.   Rick Sharga (00:17:09) - So it's something to keep an eye on as we move forward.   Keith Weinhold (00:17:11) - Right. 100%.   Rick Sharga (00:17:13) - You mentioned unemployment a couple of minutes ago, Keith, and that's one of the other economic metrics we check. Unemployment went all the way up. And I say that facetiously. The 3.9% in the numbers, full employment is considered to be anywhere at 5% unemployment or lower. And we haven't been at 5% unemployment. Probably since about 2016, with the exception of the blip we had during the Covid pandemic, when the government shut things down and we had a huge increase in unemployment temporarily. But we are continuing to see very, very strong job numbers, both in terms of these low levels of unemployment and in terms of job growth. The January and February numbers again caught the economists who come up with these consensus forecasts by surprise. In January, about 350,000 jobs created. In February, about 250,000 jobs created. I should put an asterisk on some of these numbers. When you hear politicians talking about all the jobs they've created over the last few years.   Rick Sharga (00:18:15) - Keep in mind that during the Covid pandemic, we wiped out about 22 million jobs virtually overnight. A lot of the millions of jobs that have been created over the last few years were really those old jobs being refilled. We filled most of those within about two years, and we have continued to create jobs since then. We have more jobs than we have people looking for work. They're about 8.5 million jobs open, about 6 to 6.5 million people looking for work.   Keith Weinhold (00:18:43) - You can almost think that this is an over employed condition.   Rick Sharga (00:18:46) - And it almost is in most cases, not all cases, but in most cases, somebody who doesn't have a job right now just isn't looking for a job right now. And these are not all service level jobs. That's the other pushback I get when I'm out talking to groups sometimes. Oh yeah, but not everybody wants to work at Starbucks. Well, first of all, you get pretty good benefits of Starbucks free coffee healthcare. But let's not do a Starbucks commercial. These are government jobs.   Rick Sharga (00:19:10) - They're manufacturing jobs. They're construction jobs. They are some type of service level jobs. But these are jobs across the board. And because there are more jobs available than people are looking for work, we're seeing wages go up. The average hourly wage across the country last month was over $29 an hour, which is the highest it's ever been. And if you look at wage growth on a year over year basis, it's running at about 5%. And really, Keith, this is the first time in a number of years that we can say with certainty that wage growth is actually running at a higher pace than the rate of inflation, right.   Keith Weinhold (00:19:44) - And that really matters. That really helps pay the rent. One thing that detractors say with the unemployment rate, you talked about them not necessarily being consolidated in the low paid service sector area, is that a lot of people lament, well, aren't many of these part time jobs? Where are your thoughts there?   Rick Sharga (00:20:01) - There are a probably historically large number of part time jobs, but we also have an awful lot of people who have opted out of full time work for a variety of reasons, and are thrilled to be able to pick up some money working in the gig economy.   Rick Sharga (00:20:16) - So whether they're driving for Uber or Lyft, they're doing DoorDash or something else that's a part time job that they're doing just to either, in some cases, kill time or to make a little bit of extra money. This isn't an economy where the majority of part time workers are in part time jobs, because they can't find a full time job. That's simply not the case, and the data doesn't support that.   Keith Weinhold (00:20:41) - Now, if you, the listener and viewer here are wondering, well, this stuff doesn't apply directly to me. I'm good. I'm secure in my job. Maybe I don't even need a job. Keep in mind that we're talking about the financial condition of your tenant today.   Rick Sharga (00:20:57) - Yeah. When I'm talking to to real estate investors in general, I know that you were talking about drywall earlier, and sometimes you really can't see the forest for the trees. You're kind of overwhelmed or you're not sure where you should actually be looking. I tell them in many cases, to pay less attention to home prices and rental rates and more attention to some of the underlying fundamental economic conditions.   Rick Sharga (00:21:20) - Are you in a market where population is growing or declining? Are you in a market where there's job growth? Are you in a market where there's wage growth? If you're at a market where the population, jobs and wages are all growing, you're going to be in a pretty healthy market for real estate, whether it's owner occupied properties or its rental properties. On the other hand, if jobs are leaving your market, if wages are going down, if population is declining, those are warning signs. And it might be an indication that that's not a good market to start investing more in. So everything we're talking about really does get connected back to the housing market, whether it's rental housing or owner occupied housing. And it's important to see these trends for what they are.   Keith Weinhold (00:22:04) - And of course, we're talking about these factors on a national level. As we know, our real estate is local, and our audience is often interested in studying a metro market before they decide to invest there. So on that more regional level, Rick, or local level, do you have any favorite resources or websites or apps that you think are important for prospective investors to look at first within a certain region or MSA? Well, you.   Rick Sharga (00:22:33) - Can. Find a lot of local market data on some of the free housing sites that are out there. The Zillow's, the Realtor.com is the homes dot coms of the world. If you go beyond the basic home search, or if you dig deep into some of the information that they provide on local markets, within that home search, you'll find a lot of information there. There are third party companies. There's a company I'm familiar with it that works mostly with realtors, but has a lot of data that investors would probably be interested in. It's called keeping current matters. Yeah, they do an awful lot of reporting on this. But if you really want to do your own research and you don't mind doing a little bit of digging, I find that the Department of Labor and the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, all government entities, have just copious amounts of local market information. You can find, you know, down to what does the local Pipefitter earn on an hourly basis in Peoria? There's all of that data out there for free on these government sites.   Rick Sharga (00:23:34) - You just have to be willing to do a little bit of research and dig through those sites.   Keith Weinhold (00:23:39) - Right. And sometimes the government websites don't exactly present their information in a beautiful, graphically rich way. But this is part of your research. Some people don't realize that, Fred, the Federal Reserve economic data has an awful lot of regional and local information, not just national information as well. Well, thanks for sharing some of those resources, Rick, and where you like to go and look, that can really help our audience. What else should a real estate investor know about today's overall economy?   Rick Sharga (00:24:08) - So we talked about consumer spending and the reliance our economy does have on consumer spending. And one of the things that I'm watching fairly carefully right now is an apparent disconnect between consumer confidence and consumer spending. So if you go back to when the pandemic hit and the lockdown occurred, consumer spending obviously fell off a cliff. There was just nothing to buy. And consumer confidence took a major hit with the announcement of the pandemic.   Rick Sharga (00:24:34) - Consumer spending as soon as the lockdown was over started to come back strongly and has never slowed down. It's hit an all time high today. Consumer confidence, on the other hand, was battered a little bit by subsequent waves of Covid, by threatened government shutdown in Washington, by the war in Ukraine, by the more recent war in the Middle East. And so the concern here is that if consumer confidence doesn't come back, we might see spending revert to the mean. And actually, as economists would say, and come back down, which would cause, at the very least an economic slowdown and at the worst, probably a recession. So it is something we're keeping an eye on. Consumer confidence has been improving a little bit lately, but historically it's gone hand in hand with consumer spending. And that simply hasn't been the case in recent months. So it is something we're keeping an eye on.   Keith Weinhold (00:25:25) - Now, one might wonder how do you measure confidence? Well, there are various surveys out there. And Rick, the way I think of it with consumers is that consumer confidence is more of a leading indicator, and then the actual consumption is more of a trailing indicator.   Rick Sharga (00:25:42) - I completely agree with you. The sentiment index that I follow most closely is one that's put out by the University of Michigan. Yeah, and it's been out there for decades. So there's an awful lot of history that goes with it. And generally speaking, on any index, you're looking for a number that's around or above 100 because that usually is your baseline. And some of the more recent months we've seen numbers down in the 50s and 60s. Now they've been trending up, as I said, in recent months. But that's something that's reported on very widely by the press. We were talking about sourcing things for investors. And I have to tell you, the just doing a basic Google search for something like, what's consumer confidence like today? You'd be surprised. The rich information that you can pull just from Google, that you can start to find some of these sources online. But that is one thing that we're watching. And, Keith, I think it's important to break out a little bit in more detail how consumers are spending or what they're spending with.   Rick Sharga (00:26:44) - And these are potential red flags for the economy, consumer credit card use. The amount of debt on credit cards surpassed $1 trillion in the third quarter of last year for the first time ever, and it got close to 1.2 trillion in the fourth quarter. That's an awful lot of credit card spending. Regardless of what you want to talk to me about, with inflation adjusted dollars, it's still $1 trillion. And that happened at a time when credit card interest rates had soared because of what the Federal Reserve was doing. So you're talking about people spending 1 to $1.2 trillion on their credit cards, when the average interest rate on a new credit card issued was between 25 and 30%. Gosh. Which, by the way, is a high enough number that it used to get you arrested for usury. And apparently now it's the new. Normal and it's okay. But this is concern. And one of the big concerns is because the cost of living has become so high and it's so difficult for so many families. The worry is that people might be starting to use their credit cards to make ends meet, to buy basic necessities, and that historically has not been a story with a happy ending.   Rick Sharga (00:27:52) - So we are watching credit card use. We're also watching personal savings rates. When the government stimulus came out, we saw a savings rates at all time highs. We then saw savings declined rapidly to all time low levels. They've recovered a little bit, but they're still on the low end of things, historically speaking. So the same worry here, Keith, which is that we're worried that families might be dipping into personal savings in order to make ends meet. And that combination, there's some research that suggests that, on average, the US household has more credit card debt than they have savings, and that's just not a healthy ratio for anybody to have.   Keith Weinhold (00:28:30) - Yeah, America has very much so they live for today mindset I think. So therefore it was a pretty predictable that after the Covid stimulus payments that savings levels probably would drop.   Rick Sharga (00:28:42) - Yeah. It's just that they drop further than what we had hoped they would. We're going to talk about inflation in the second. I have a bit of skepticism about some of the inflation numbers that we see reported from the government because of what they include or exclude, or some of the data is trailing by a long time.   Rick Sharga (00:28:56) - So I out of frustration, I created my own CPI. It's not the consumer price index, it's the Costco price index. And I look at one of my leading indicators is salmon because I buy my salmon at Costco. And a year ago that salmon cost 999 a pound. Today shopping a Costco, that salmon costs 1299 £1.30 percent. That's a 30% lift for all the talk we hear out of the administration about gas prices going down, I can tell you that where I buy my gas at Costco, it's a couple dollars more a gallon than it was just a few years ago. And I say this with a little bit of a chuckle, and I say this knowing that it's a nuisance for me. But I've been blessed. And it's not a life or death decision for me. But there are families out there who are deciding whether or not they can buy salmon this week. And I would submit that on average, your rental family's income is lower than your owner occupied houses, families, income. And so for all of your listeners who are landlords, this is something to be paying very close attention to, despite the fact that inflation is coming down.   Rick Sharga (00:30:02) - Keep in mind that these inflation rates are on top of very high prices that we have as a result of the previous cycle of inflation. So it's going to take a while, even with wages going up for those households to catch up here. And the hope is that wage growth will continue to outpace inflation growth long enough that they'll be able to do that.   Keith Weinhold (00:30:23) - Yes, that's a positive trend. Yeah. Rick, as long is in your Costco price index, Costco doesn't try to skimp, inflate and replace your wild elastic salmon with Atlantic farmed salmon. I'm sure you're going to be paying attention to that as well as you fill your own shopping basket and come up with what's really happening with inflation. Because for those that believe the CPI, it's been reported in the low threes lately and CPI peaked at 9.1% almost two years ago in June of 2022.   Rick Sharga (00:30:55) - And what the Federal Reserve has done is unprecedented. We've only ever seen rates go this high this quickly, once in the last 50 or 60 years. That was back in the 1980s, when inflation was really in runaway mode and out of control.   Rick Sharga (00:31:10) - And normally what the Federal Reserve does is very methodical, very thoughtful. They'll raise the fed funds rate a quarter of a point. They'll sit back and wait to see what happens. They'll raise another quarter point and give it some time to take effect and so forth and so on until they feel like inflation is under control. And then they'll then they'll drop that fed funds rate. In this case, they've admitted a few things that probably took a lot for them to say out loud. They admitted that they underestimated how high inflation would get. They admitted that they underestimated how quickly it would rise. And they also admitted that they underestimated how difficult it was going to be to get it under control. So what it did peak at about 9.1% a couple of years ago. They took unprecedented steps in terms of the size of of rate hikes and the rapidity with which they raised the fed funds rate. And now they're in a position where inflation is trending more or less in the right direction. It's in the low threes, as you said, it has not come down as much in the last couple reports as they would like.   Rick Sharga (00:32:10) - And that's probably going to result in them holding the fed funds rate at its current level for at least the first half of this year before they start doing rate cuts, because the last thing they want to do is cut too soon and see inflation start to come back up.   Keith Weinhold (00:32:25) - About one month ago, I did an episode titled Why the Fed should not lower rates. Rates are. Normal and the economy doesn't need the help. So if we do have this dreaded R-word, this recession, the most convenient tool for the fed to use is to cut rates. We don't want to use up that ammo while we're still in a good position like we are today.   Rick Sharga (00:32:47) - Yeah, I don't disagree with you. And there were some economists and mostly Wall Street, who had been predicting a fed rate cut as early as March and over the course of the year. And I thought they were all crazy great. And I've been saying at the earliest, May now I think it's probably not until June. The rates are a little higher than historic averages.   Rick Sharga (00:33:05) - I could see maybe three rate cuts this year, maybe four if the economy slows down significantly. We're not we're certainly not going back to the zero rates that we had for a few years. I think the fed will be very cautious and reserved in its approach to scaling back the fed funds rate. One of the the side effects of what they did is they cast a lot of uncertainty and doubt into the financial markets, which have caused mortgage rates to skyrocket, which have caused private lending rates to skyrocket. For your listeners who borrow from private lenders. And I don't think we see those rates start to come down significantly until after the fed does its first fed funds rate cut, I suspect, and so far I've been right, that until we see that rate cut, we're going to see mortgage rates on a 30 year fixed rate loan kind of bounce back and forth in a very narrow band between about 6.75 and 7.25% for the next few months. And that's really where they've been since January. And I think that will continue to be the case until we see that first rate cut, at which point the market will probably say, okay, they're serious now we can have that sigh of relief, and then we'll see a slow and gradual reduction in mortgage rates.   Rick Sharga (00:34:21) - I did want to touch on two things related to the fed actions and the current economic issues. Keith, because I often get the question about likelihood of a recession. If you go back in history all the way back to World War two, not counting this cycle, the Federal Reserve has raised the fed funds rates 11 times in order to get inflation under control. Eight of those 11 times, they've wound up over correcting as they raise the rates right. And that steered us into a recession. The three times that didn't happen, the three times they executed a soft landing, not a recession. All three of those cycles had something in common, and that was that the fed didn't have to overcorrect because they started early. They acted proactively when it looked like inflation was getting started, and they were able to keep inflation under control without a drastic increase in the fed funds rate this cycle. They've already admitted that they waited too long and inflation got higher than they expected. And because of that, they've had to raise the rates more quickly and more dramatically again than anything we've seen in the last 40 or 50 years.   Rick Sharga (00:35:25) - So historically speaking, it would seem more likely than not that we'd see at least a mild recession. The people who say, well, if we would have seen one through this cycle, we would have already seen it often overlooked the fact that it can take 24 months after the Fed's rate hikes are done, to see the full effect on the economy.   Keith Weinhold (00:35:45) - Economies are complex and cycles move slowly. They do so, historically speaking.   Rick Sharga (00:35:50) - That's one thing. I look at the other and without getting to Inside Baseball for your listeners, is something called a yield curve inversion. Yeah. And that's when when the bonds markets sense a disruption in the force and think that Darth Vader may be hitting the economy, but basically it's when the the yields on longer term investments like ten year Treasury bonds switch places with the yields on shorter term investments like two year Treasury bonds. So the yield on a two year investment is actually higher than the yield on a ten year investment. And when you have that inversion, that's what they call a yield curve inversion.   Rick Sharga (00:36:23) - And the last eight times that's happened we've had a recession follow not always a long drawn out recession, but there's always been a recession. And this particular yield curve inversion cycle is one of the deepest and longest ones we've had in a long time. And again, using history as a precedent. That doesn't seem to be really good reason for this cycle to behave differently than the last eight half. Having said all that, we may get lucky. The fed may pull a rabbit out of its hat and actually execute that rare soft landing instead of a recession. If they do, we'll still feel the economy slowdown that's almost a given. And if they don't, if we do have a recession, every economist I speak with tells me the same thing that it's likely to be a very short, very mild recession because all of the economic fundamentals underneath are still very, very strong. And, you know, employment, wages, productivity and so forth and so on. So likely to see some sort of slowdown this year, Keith, whether it turns into an actual recession or is just very, very slow growth, that's the most likely scenario for the rest of 2024.   Keith Weinhold (00:37:30) - Well, Rick, as we wind down here, the. Last thing I'd like to ask you about is in a recession, what typically happens to real estate, because you and I both study history and something that I often say here on the show is oftentimes you need to look at history over hunches, for example, I think it's easy to have a hunch that when mortgage rates rise while home prices are definitely going to fall. No, actually, if you look at history, when mortgage rates rise, home prices typically rise because rising rates typically mean the economy strong. And another one is when home prices are up. Well, a lot of people think that others want to then jump into the housing market and buy when they see that prices are up. So then when home prices are up, well, that means rents must fall since everyone's buying. But no, these two things typically move together home prices and rents. It's about history over hunches. So with that in mind, talk to us with your historical research on in recessions, what typically happens to the real estate market?   Rick Sharga (00:38:28) - Typically, home sales go up from the beginning of recession to the end of a recession.   Rick Sharga (00:38:33) - And in fact, with the notable exception of the last recession, the Great Recession, housing is very often helped the economy recuperate from a recession and recover. And that's particularly true in the new homes market. Home prices also typically go up from the beginning of recession to the end of a recession. So you could have some short term disruption. You could see home sales volume or home prices dip slightly at the beginning of a recession. But historically speaking, in every recession except the Great Recession, we've actually seen both home sales and home prices go up. And to your point, higher mortgage rates do not historically equate to lower home prices. What they do equate to is home prices going up at a slower rate. And this last cycle has been very unusual because historically, we've never seen mortgage rates double in a single calendar year until 2022. And in fact, that year rates didn't double in a calendar year. They doubled in a couple of months.   Keith Weinhold (00:39:33) - And tripled overall.   Rick Sharga (00:39:34) - And they tripled overall. So if you look at that, we did see home prices actually decline in some markets, although nationally the number never went negative.   Rick Sharga (00:39:44) - And we saw home price appreciation drop off pretty dramatically but still stay positive on a year over year basis. So it's been kind of interesting. This has been a very unusual cycle for a lot of reasons, but historically speaking, your spot on a recession does not spell doom and gloom for the housing market. Whether you're talking about owner occupied homes or rental properties.   Keith Weinhold (00:40:06) - Rick and I talked about the general economy today. Next week, Rick is going to join us again, and we're going to focus squarely on the real estate market. So no long goodbyes, Rick. We'll see you next week.   Rick Sharga (00:40:18) - See you soon, Keith.   Keith Weinhold (00:40:25) - Yeah. Strong insights from Rick, as usual. To help sum it up, recession or not, expect some sort of economic slowdown later this year. It's expected to be mild. That's what Rick shared with us. And if that happens, expect less rent growth. Then in a recession, home prices tend to go up. That's what really happens. Wage growth keeps outpacing inflation. Now the longer that trend continues, expect more rent growth in the future.   Keith Weinhold (00:40:57) - But of course the real rate of inflation is slippery to measure. I think you could still make the case that wage growth isn't really higher than inflation. So to me, that part's actually not that bullish. Rick believes mortgage rates will stay near 7% until the fed makes their first rate cut. We discussed monetary policy today. And you surely know that's what the fed does. They control the flow of money and interest rate policy. We did not discuss fiscal policy. We're not going to next week either. Fiscal policy is something that Tom Wheelwright and I often do together. And what is the difference? Well, fiscal policy is the tax and spend side. When you think of fiscal think tax and spend, and it's often congressional committees and elected officials that make those fiscal policy decisions, not the fed. They're making the monetary policy. That's the difference. This is get rich education. So after all, we do often have these learning moments. There's more of Rick Saga next week as we pivot from talking about the broader economy this week.   Keith Weinhold (00:42:05) - And then next week, we'll really drill down on the housing market, including more on property price growth prospects, which regions are growing or shrinking, rent growth prospects, and any warning signs that investors should take notice of today. Hey, what? I'd like to think that I don't ask much of you, the listener. I'd like to ask you if you can help me out with one fairly quick thing today. I'd really appreciate it if you get value from the show here. Whether that was, say, last week's episode on what is retirement anyway or from, say, a few weeks ago, why inflation is actually an immoral force, or the latest trends like the content of today's and next week's show, or my upcoming breakdown of why Western US homes cost more than eastern US homes and other content like that that you just aren't going to find anywhere else. I'm simply asking you for your feedback. This takes the show from one way communication to some two way communication. Please consider leaving me a podcast rating and review, whether that's on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you listen to the show.   Keith Weinhold (00:43:17) - Just do a search for, for example, how to leave an Apple Podcasts review so you can see how to do it. And then I'd be grateful for that. Rating and review more next week on the future direction of the housing market I'm Keith Weinhold. Don't quit your day dream.   Speaker 4 (00:43:37) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get Rich education LLC exclusively.   Keith Weinhold (00:44:05) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com.