Podcasts about Macroeconomics

In this episode, Liz Ann Sonders sits down with Keith McCullough, founder of Hedgeye, to revisit his “quads” framework—a model that categorizes market environments based on the direction of economic growth and inflation. McCullough emphasizes process over prediction, arguing that investors should focus on the momentum of these variables to adapt to rapidly shifting market conditions. The conversation explores a volatile macro backdrop marked by geopolitical shocks, leadership changes at the Fed, and evolving market structure. McCullough explains how increased instability has accelerated market cycles, requiring a more nimble, data-driven approach. He outlines his view that inflation likely peaked and is set to decelerate, setting up a shift toward disinflation, and potentially slower growth, over the coming quarters. They also discuss implications for asset allocation, including declining bond yields globally, a rotation away from mega-cap dominance, and opportunities in under-owned, rate-sensitive sectors like housing and real estate. McCullough highlights growing risks tied to market concentration, new equity supply (including major IPOs), and speculative activity, while stressing the importance of disciplined, rules-based investing. The episode concludes with a discussion of investor behavior, with McCullough urging listeners to detach from narratives and emotions, and instead rely on process, data, and adaptability in an increasingly fast-moving market environment. Finally, Collin and Liz Ann look ahead to next week's upcoming macroeconomic indicators and key data releases.  To keep up with Keith McCullough, you can follow him on X: @KeithMcCullough On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.  If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts. Important Disclosures The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab. Investors in ETFs should consider carefully information contained in the prospectus, or if available, the summary prospectus, including investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. You can request a prospectus via 1-800-435-4000.  Please read the prospectus carefully before investing. This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The securities, investment products and investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.  Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy. Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. Lower rated securities are subject to greater credit risk, default risk, and liquidity risk. Diversification and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets. Currencies are speculative, very volatile and not suitable for all investors. Investing in cryptocurrencies involves risk, including the risk of total loss of principal invested. Cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin and ethereum are highly volatile, are not backed or guaranteed by the bank, any central bank or government; are not deposits; are not FDIC insured; are not SIPC protected; and lack many of the regulations and consumer protections that legal-tender currencies and regulated securities have.  Due to the high level of risk, investors should view digital currencies as a purely speculative instrument.  All names and market data shown are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data. Schwab does not recommend the use of technical analysis as a sole means of investment research. Options carry a high level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Certain requirements must be met to trade options through Schwab. Please read the Options Disclosure Document titled "Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options" before considering any option transaction.  The policy analysis provided by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions  The book Diary of a Hedge Fund Manager is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Schwab has not reviewed the book and makes no representations about its content. The PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index (SOX) is a capitalization-weighted index composed of 30 semiconductor companies. (0626-2U7S) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Lyn Alden. They discuss the Hormuz crisis, Fed policy under new leadership, budget deficits, the AI trade, and AI's mounting demands on energy markets. https://bit.ly/4oJoM7q    

Check out BeerBiceps SkillHouse Courses Here - https://linktr.ee/bbskillhouseFor all BeerBiceps vlog content Watch Life Of BeerBiceps - https://www.youtube.com/@LifeOfBeerBicepsCheck out my Mind Performance app: Level SuperMindLink:- https://app.level.game/?c=zSbmYnShare your guest suggestions hereMail - connect@beerbiceps.comLink - https://forms.gle/aoMHY9EE3Cg3Tqdx9Join the Level Community Here:https://linktr.ee/levelsupermindcommunityFollow BeerBiceps SkillHouse's Social Media Handles:YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@BeerBicepsSkillHouseInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/beerbiceps_skillhouseWebsite : https://beerbicepsskillhouse.inFor any other queries EMAIL: support@beerbicepsskillhouse.comIn case of any payment-related issues, kindly write to support@tagmango.comIn this special episode of The Ranveer Show, we are joined by Prof Arun Kumar (PhD in Economics), who shares deep insights on the impending global economic crisis, the impact of Super El Niño, AI's threat to mental labor, and the hidden realities of the Indian unorganized sector. This episode takes you into the complexities of global geopolitics, the fertilizer shortage, and the strategic roadmap India needs to navigate the next decade.In this conversation with Prof Arun Kumar, we talk about the Four Major Crises facing India, the displacement of jobs by Artificial Intelligence, the importance of a bottom-up economic approach, and the rising trade deficit with China. We also understand the impact of the West Asia crisis on global oil prices, the reality behind "Stagflation," and how India can achieve true strategic autonomy by investing in R&D and supporting the micro-sector through cooperatives.This episode also covers the Super El Niño's effect on agriculture, the decimation of MSMEs, the new Cold War between the US and the China-Russia-Iran block, the role of black money in hurting productivity, and the future of energy through coal gasification and solar power.This podcast is a valuable resource for anyone interested in Macroeconomics, Geopolitics, AI and Job Security, Indian Agriculture, Global Trade, and the future of the Indian Economy.(00:00) – Start of the episode(01:50) – 4 Major Crises Coming Soon(02:42) – The Super El Niño Threat(04:53) – Real Impact on Indian GDP(06:24) – China's Secret Growth Model(08:32) – The Threat to 11 Crore Jobs(10:43) – Fertilizer & Global Oil Shortage(12:37) – AI: The End of Mental Labor?(15:14) – Will Humans Become Obsolete?(17:39) – Indian Tech vs US Tech(19:22) – The New Global Cold War(22:26) – Why India Fails at R&D(25:54) – Our Dangerous Dependency on China(30:51) – The Reality of Unemployment(34:01) – Black Money & Productivity Loss(38:58) – Harsh Truth of Indian Policy(41:26) – Why You Should Stop Buying Gold(46:45) – Explaining Stagflation & Recession(53:04) – US, Iran, & The Global Oil War(1:00:14) – China's Master 30-Year Plan(1:03:08) – End of the episode#geopolitics #india

Bob sits down with Harvard Economics Professor Pol Antràs to discuss his new paper applying Böhm-Bawerk's average period of production to international trade, testing whether countries with lower interest rates tend to export goods requiring longer, more roundabout production processes.Related:Professor Antràs' Paper, "An ‘Austrian' Model of International Specialization": Mises.org/HAP554aBob's Article, "The Reswitching Question": Mises.org/HAP554b

At his first Fed meeting as chair, Kevin Warsh signaled a more hawkish stance focused squarely on inflation, while launching a sweeping reform agenda.  Policymakers are split between holding and potentially hiking, with strong emphasis on restoring price stability. Warsh introduced a significant shift in Fed governance and communication: shorter statements, less forward guidance, and five task forces aimed at rethinking policy frameworks. Liz Ann Sonders and Collin Martin explore the implications of that shift, particularly the risk that reduced transparency could lead to greater market volatility as investors react more sharply to incoming data. They also assess market dynamics: Rising short-term yields pressured equities, while longer-term yields may remain range-bound if inflation expectations stabilize.  Finally, they offer practical portfolio takeaways—emphasizing diversification within equities, a focus on quality and earnings strength, and a disciplined approach to asset allocation in a higher-rate, more-uncertain policy regime. On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.  If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts. Important Disclosures This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The securities, investment products and investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.   Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy. Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. Lower rated securities are subject to greater credit risk, default risk, and liquidity risk. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets. All names and market data shown are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data. The policy analysis provided by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions   Inverse correlation refers to investments that tend to move in opposite directions: when one rises, the other falls. A hyperscaler is a large-scale cloud service provider that offers vast computing, storage, and networking resources through a distributed infrastructure of interconnected servers and software.   (0626-05FT) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Bob sits down with Harvard Economics Professor Pol Antràs to discuss his new paper applying Böhm-Bawerk's average period of production to international trade, testing whether countries with lower interest rates tend to export goods requiring longer, more roundabout production processes.Related:Professor Antràs' Paper, "An ‘Austrian' Model of International Specialization": Mises.org/HAP554aBob's Article, "The Reswitching Question": Mises.org/HAP554b

A peace deal that's already showing signs of strain. Central bankers still wrestling with inflation. A new Fed chair seeking reform. And a UK local election with implications for the bond market.It's been a busy week for macro and markets, and Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to make sense of it all. Neil explains what the increasingly fragile US-Iran peace deal means for global oil supplies and the outlook for inflation and interest rates.  In his discussion, Neil reviews Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed chair, considers the outlook for US interest rates, examines mounting trade tensions between Europe and China, and explains why the UK's next prime minister may find fiscal promises difficult to keep. 

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Brent Johnson. They'll discuss the Iran deal, Brent's outlook for the U.S. dollar, and much more. https://bit.ly/4xRl8ga      

Is the US economy increasingly dependent on high-income consumers? In this episode of “Credit Currents,” Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody's Analytics, and Atsi Sheth, Chief Credit Officer at Moody's Ratings, examine the reality of the K-shaped economy. They explore how the top 20% of earners now drive roughly 60% of spending, while lower-income households face mounting pressure from rising costs of essentials like food, fuel and housing. From premium airline demand to tightening credit conditions and weakening real income growth, this episode highlights why economic growth may appear stable, but is becoming increasingly fragile and concentrated.   Host: Patrick Ronk, Vice President, Moody's Ratings Guests: Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics Atsi Sheth, Chief Credit Officer, Moody's Ratings   Related Research:  Global Macro Outlook (May 2026 Update) - Global energy market stress weighs on growth prospects The State of the Consumer (March 2026) – US - Higher energy prices and a narrowing consumption base pose risks to spending The State of the Consumer (May 2026) – Europe - Middle East conflict will weaken consumer confidence and nascent economic recovery Geopolitical Risk – Global - Prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption through autumn broadens credit stress © 2026 Moody's Corporation and/or its licensors and affiliates. All rights reserved. Go to www.moodys.com/pages/globaldisclaimer.aspx for complete legal terms and conditions governing use of Moody's information made available in this video. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Mat Kirschner, lead portfolio manager for the Cohen & Steers Quality Income Realty Fund (RQI), an actively managed real estate closed-end fund, shares views on the entry point for commercial real estate investors. He also highlights three potential opportunities, backed by powerful macroeconomic themes and limited supply dynamics.

Relatively strong US growth, sticky inflation and a resilient labour market have strengthened the case for further Fed tightening. In this week's episode of The Weekly Briefing, Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown tells David Wilder why rates may rise again before year-end and what to expect from Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chair.Before that, it's Groundhog Friday, as Donald Trump again talks up an imminent deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But what if this time it really is for real and a US-Iran deal does get done? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses how the outlook could shift if energy starts flowing again, but also explains the economic risks if any deal later falls apart as crude reserves run down.Related contentFed on hold as Warsh faces a fractious FOMCBoE may not follow the central bank crowd in raising ratesBoJ on track to hike despite Ueda's absence

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Larry McDonald. They discuss what's driven this sell-off, whether the Iran conflict had anything to do with it, and where the opportunities lie in today's markets. https://bit.ly/4ebDAHe    

Are we moving towards Fed rate hikes? Even before the release of a strong May US employment report, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joined The Weekly Briefing to explain why shifting dynamics on the FOMC mean the Federal Reserve could emerge from the summer weighing the need for tighter policy to contain inflation.Plus, after another extraordinary surge in AI stocks, Chief Economic Adviser for Financial Markets John Higgins discusses how much further the rally could run, whether current earnings growth is sustainable and what could ultimately burst the stock market bubble.Related contentBar to Fed hikes appears relatively lowCapital Economics events

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Michael Every & Rory Johnston. They discuss all things Iran from geopolitics to inflation outlook to what it means for China to President Trump and Secretary Bessent's stablecoin statecraft ambitions. https://bit.ly/3RQ4ixB    

In our podcast episode, Mike Reed, Head of Global Financial Institutions, is joined by Marc Stacey, Investment Grade Senior Portfolio Manager. Amidst a backdrop of increased geopolitical risk, Middle East conflict driving oil prices higher, and Europe ramping up defence spending, the region's banks are thriving. Mike and Marc discuss why the sector is showing resilience during the current uncertainty, why European banks are set to benefit from the AI hyperscaler buildout, and nuance behind the private credit headlines.

Markets may be entering a fundamentally different era. In this episode, Liz Ann Sonders and Collin Martin explore why long-term bond yields remain elevated, how rising uncertainty is driving a higher term premium, and what a potential shift away from the “Great Moderation” could mean for investors. They discuss how inflation volatility, reduced likelihood of Fed asset purchases, and geopolitical tensions are reshaping expectations for interest rates and economic stability. The conversation also examines changing correlations between stocks and bonds, and whether equities are underpricing risks. Then, Liz Ann is joined by RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas. Joe reinforces the idea of a structural shift, describing a “split-screen” economy marked by inequality, policy shocks, and an AI-driven transformation. He expects trend-level growth but sustained inflation pressures, with risks tied to energy supply disruptions and potential knock-on effects to equities via the wealth effect. The conversation highlights a disconnect between resilient equity markets and more cautious signals from bond markets, suggesting investors brace for higher-for-longer rates, ongoing volatility, and a more complex economic cycle. Finally, Collin and Liz Ann look ahead to next week's upcoming macroeconomic indicators and key data releases.  To keep up with Joe Brusuelas, you can follow him on X: @joebrusuelas On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.  If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts. Important Disclosures This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The securities, investment products and investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.  Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy. Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. Lower rated securities are subject to greater credit risk, default risk, and liquidity risk. Alternative investments are speculative and involve a high degree of risk. Investors may lose all or a substantial portion of their investment. Alternative investments cover a wide array of strategies, including real estate, private equity, private credit, and hedge funds. Risks will vary based on each unique strategy and can include investments in highly illiquid assets or securities, use of leverage, higher fees, lower transparency, tax risks, and limited ability to redeem or limited transferability. All names and market data shown are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data. The policy analysis provided by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions  The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab. (0526-NRT9)   Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This could prove another false dawn, or the US and Iran could finally reach an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to oil and gas shipments. But even if the strait reopens, energy flows, oil prices and, by extension, inflation won't snap back quickly to pre-war levels.Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Climate & Commodities Economist David Oxley join the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing to discuss the new normal for global energy markets and what it means for the world economy.They explain why inflation pressures are still likely to build in the weeks ahead, even as market expectations for central bank responses have tempered in recent days. And they discuss how governments and the energy industry are now scrambling to build alternative supply routes and reduce the Strait of Hormuz's potency as a geopolitical choke point.

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Dr. Pippa Malmgren & Jim Bianco.  They'll discuss whether AI and Robotics are going to take our jobs, Nuclear Fusion, Disappearing Scientists, and much more. https://bit.ly/4tXAlJr    

What happens when you apply deep operational experience to the massive, complex budget of the world's fifth-largest economy? In this episode, we sit down with California gubernatorial candidate, author, and political commentator Steve Hilton. We dive into the structural inflection points that shaped modern California, the true multi-generational fallout of controversial tax policies like the proposed "Billionaire Tax," and the leadership frameworks required to manage massive public budgets. Steve also pulls back the curtain on his gubernatorial campaign trail, sharing his biggest "ah-ha" moments and how he would structure a modern debate to cut through political theater. Whether you are interested in macroeconomic policy, corporate governance, or the future of the Golden State, this conversation offers a masterclass in strategic leadership and policy design. Key Discussion Points & Timeline Structural Inflection Points: The one historical decision that radically altered the trajectory of California's economy and infrastructure. The Macroeconomics of Leadership: Deconstructing the specific blend of financial acumen and deep operational experience required to run massive, multi-billion-dollar public budgets. Second-Degree Fallout of the "Billionaire Tax": A critical analysis of the downstream, unintended economic consequences of hyper-targeting high-net-worth individuals and capital allocators in California. Reimagining the Modern Debate: How Steve would moderate a high-stakes debate, his strategy for crafting questions, and how to force accountability on the public stage. Featured Guest Links Official Campaign Website: Steve Hilton for Governor Biography & Background: Steve Hilton on Wikipedia ⚖️ Compliance Disclaimer Disclaimer: The views expressed in this podcast are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial or legal advice, nor do they necessarily reflect the views of Finalis Inc. or Finalis Securities LLC, Member FINRA/SIPC.

As 2026 reaches its midpoint, the global economic outlook is growing more uncertain. In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by the IIF's Marcello Estevão, Chief Economist and Managing Director, and Jonathan Fortun, Senior Economist, to unpack the latest Capital Flows Report and what it reveals about shifting growth, capital movements, and policy pressures. They examine how geopolitical shocks are compounding existing weaknesses, why the U.S. continues to outperform other economies, and what is driving mixed signals across emerging markets. The conversation also explores how supply chain disruptions are spreading beyond energy and what central banks and policymakers should be watching as risks build heading into the second half of the year. This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.

Macroeconomic conditions are squeezing US airlines and travelers just in time for the summer travel season.  Higher fuel costs due to the conflict in the Middle East are pushing up ticket prices. The latest Consumer Price Index report showed fares rose by about 3% in April. Meanwhile, choices for cheap seats decreased when Spirit Airlines went out of business in May. The ultra low-cost carrier blamed soaring energy prices. What does this uptick in energy inflation mean for airlines' profits and travelers' wallets?   Nic Owens is an equity analyst for Morningstar and covers the North American airlines. April CPI Report Shows Inflation Broadening As Energy Spike Impact Spreads On this episode: 00:00:00 Welcome 00:01:21 Energy prices and airline profit outlooks 00:02:40 How this summer's travel demand stacks up  00:04:01 Which Big Four airlines are most and least vulnerable  00:05:44 Who will compete for Spirit's former customers 00:07:00 Tips for travelers   00:08:51 What Morningstar's analyst thinks about airline stocks Watch more from Morningstar: Bond ETF Flows Just Flipped. Here's What It Means for You How Big Tech's Bond Spree and Rising US Debt Are Creating Risks and Opportunities 10 Exceptional Stocks With Double-Digit Dividend Raises   Follow Morningstar on social: Facebook https://www.facebook.com/MorningstarInc/ X https://x.com/MorningstarInc Instagram https://www.instagram.com/morningstarinc/?hl=en LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/company/morningstar/posts/?feedView=all Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Macroeconomic volatility creates value for muni bond investors. Follow Us Twitter @NYLInvestments Twitter @MacKayMuniMgrs Facebook @NYLInvestments LinkedIn: New York Life Investments LinkedIn: MacKay Municipal Managers Presented by New York Life Investmentswww.newyorklifeinvestments.com   MacKay Municipal Managers is a team of portfolio managers at MacKay Shields. MacKay Shields is 100% owned by NYLIM Holdings, which is wholly owned by New York Life Insurance Company. “New York Life Investments” is both a service mark, and the common trade name, of certain investment advisors affiliated with New York Life Insurance Company. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This latest wobble in the bond market almost certainly won't be the last. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann join David Wilder on the latest episode of the Weekly Briefing to discuss the forces that have driven bond yields to multi-year highs. They examine shifting perceptions around inflation as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz drags on, the fiscal worries gnawing away at investor sentiment across the advanced economies and we're entering a world where inflation settles structurally higher than the 2% era policymakers once took for granted. And with Japan's yield curve steepening sharply, they also discuss whether investors are beginning to question the Bank of Japan's grip on reflation. Also on the show, India economist Shilan Shah calls in from Mumbai to discuss how record temperatures and the global energy shock are complicating the Reserve Bank's efforts to contain inflation pressures. He discusses the risks7 facing the rupee, the prospect of tighter monetary policy, and how the current dilemma compares with crises past. Related contentWatch: Markets Drop-In: AI-driven paradigm shift or dotcom bubble redux? What's next for equitieshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/markets-drop-ai-driven-paradigm-shift-or-dotcom-bubble-redux-whats-next-equitiesRead: Heatwave completes trifecta of risks for Indiahttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/india-economics-update/heatwave-completes-trifecta-risks-indiaExplore: Fiscal Riskshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/fiscal-risks

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Morgan Downey. They discuss the ongoing crisis, with Morgan warning that all buffers and safety margins have been exhausted, explaining why a Strait closure lasting another month could drive oil prices to $150–$200, and exploring several other critical dimensions of this rapidly evolving situation. https://bit.ly/3Pe3zpa    

Bob sits down with Dr. Jonathan Newman to discuss his Mises Academy course for homeschooling families based on Lessons for the Young Economist, using it as a starting point to walk through the full Austrian case against socialism.Related:The Mises Academy: Mises.org/HAP550aDr. Newman's Course, Lessons for the Young Economist: Mises.org/HAP550bBob's Lessons for the Young Economist: Mises.org/HAP550cBob's Lessons for the Young Economist Teacher's Manual: Mises.org/HAP550dDr. Newman's Article, "Star Trek Is Wrong: There Will Always Be Scarcity": Mises.org/HAP550eCelebrate Murray Rothbard's 100th birthday with a free copy of Anatomy of the State. Get yours at Mises.org/HAPodFree

Bob sits down with Dr. Jonathan Newman to discuss his Mises Academy course for homeschooling families based on Lessons for the Young Economist, using it as a starting point to walk through the full Austrian case against socialism.Related:The Mises Academy: Mises.org/HAP550aDr. Newman's Course, Lessons for the Young Economist: Mises.org/HAP550bBob's Lessons for the Young Economist: Mises.org/HAP550cBob's Lessons for the Young Economist Teacher's Manual: Mises.org/HAP550dDr. Newman's Article, "Star Trek Is Wrong: There Will Always Be Scarcity": Mises.org/HAP550eCelebrate Murray Rothbard's 100th birthday with a free copy of Anatomy of the State. Get yours at Mises.org/HAPodFree

Europe's NATO members have pledged 3.5% of GDP to rearmament. The political argument is already about which social programmes will be sacrificed to pay for this, when the government chooses guns instead of butter. What does history tell us about what politicians will do?Christoph Trebesch and Johannes Marzian spent four years assembling the Global Budget Database: 150 years of primary government budget documents from 20 countries, with 116 identified military spending booms in peace and war. They find that governments almost never cut social spending when they rearm; they expand both military and welfare budgets simultaneously. The bill arrives later, as higher taxes. Top income rates typically rise by 10 to 15 percentage points in the decade following a military boom, funded mainly through broad-based income and value-added taxes. With rearmament underway, will history repeat itself?The research behind this episode:Marzian, Johannes, and Christoph Trebesch. 2026. "Guns and Butter: The Fiscal Consequences of Rearmament and War." CEPR Discussion Paper 21193. [Gated]To cite this episode:Phillips, Tim, and Christoph Trebesch. 2026. "Guns and Butter." VoxTalks Economics (podcast). Assign this as extra listening. The citation above is formatted and ready for a reading list or VLE.About the guestChristoph Trebesch is Director of the Research Center on International Finance at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy and Professor of Macroeconomics at Kiel University. His research spans sovereign debt, financial crises, China's role in global finance, the economics of populism, and the long-run fiscal history of military spending. He is a Research Fellow of the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR). In 2024 he received the Hermann Heinrich Gossen Award, Germany's leading economics prize for economists under 45.Research cited in this episodeThe Global Budget Database is the primary dataset introduced in this paper. Marzian and Trebesch constructed it from primary archival sources, including national parliamentary budget documents, for 20 countries from 1870 to 2022. Unlike existing datasets that rely on planned rather than realised expenditures, it records what governments actually spent, broken down by ministry and purpose. The Switzerland case illustrates the stakes: standard sources record Swiss military spending at around 2% of GDP during the World Wars. The archival record shows actual spending reached 10% once off-budget items are included; five times the apparent figure.The Correlates of War (COW) Military Expenditures Dataset is one of the most widely used secondary-source datasets for historical military spending, maintained by the Correlates of War Project. Trebesch uses the Swiss case to illustrate the limitations of secondary-source data: the COW series misses off-budget military items that primary archival documents capture, producing a significantly distorted picture of wartime mobilisation in a number of countries.Credit booms methodology provided the template for identifying military spending booms. Trebesch and Marzian define a boom as an increase of at least 6.5 percentage points of military spending as a share of GDP over two consecutive years, ending when spending growth falls to zero. This approach, adapted from the literature on financial credit expansions and their economic consequences, allows systematic cross-country and cross-period identification without relying on retrospective classification alone. Each algorithmically flagged episode was then verified against historical sources.Local projections are the main statistical technique used to trace the long-run fiscal path following military booms. The method estimates how a variable (here, tax revenues and top income rates) evolves over time following an identified shock. It is well suited to the protracted dynamics Trebesch and Marzian observe: tax rates rising over a decade or more after a military buildup and, critically, not returning to pre-boom levels once the spending episode ends.Exogenous military shocks are the basis of the paper's causal identification strategy. To separate the fiscal effects of military spending from broader economic conditions, the authors distinguish episodes triggered by external geopolitical events from those driven by domestic factors. France's rearmament in the mid-1930s, forced by Nazi Germany's military expansion regardless of French domestic politics, is used as an example of an exogenous peacetime boom. Germany's own rearmament in the same period would not qualify as exogenous, since Germany initiated the shock. The same logic applies to wars: a country attacked faces an exogenous event; the attacker does not.More VoxTalks Economics episodesIn Can Europe Defend Itself?, featuring Moritz Schularick, Christoph's colleague from the Kiel Institute, we examine whether Europe has the industrial and strategic capacity to convert its rearmament commitment into credible deterrence, and what European rearmament could mean in practice. Related reading on VoxEUDefence spending: no free lunch, a VoxEU column arguing that increased military expenditure adds modestly to near-term economic activity while adding to fiscal pressure; lasting economic benefits from rearmament are far from guaranteed.Macroeconomic impacts of defence spending, a VoxEU column modelling the EU-wide effects of raising NATO members' defence spending to 5% of GDP by 2035; projected GDP gains are modest and come at the cost of higher debt-to-GDP ratios.Converging military spending and its fiscal consequences, a VoxEU column examining long-run trends in military expenditure across countries and the fiscal footprint they leave behind.The economic effects of military support for Ukraine: evidence from fiscal multipliers in donor countries, a VoxEU column finding that spending multipliers for military expenditure can exceed those for other categories of public spending.

Westminster is gripped by the game of thrones around Labour's slow-mo leadership drama, which could deliver the UK's seventh prime minister in ten years. But for markets and the economy, the stakes are very real. Chief UK Economist Paul Dales tells David Wilder why. He says all the leading contenders to replace Starmer would, to varying degrees, open the spending taps but also explains why the bond market is likely to push back hard. Paul also makes the case for the UK's medium-term outlook looking brighter than many assume, though not because of who's in charge of the country.Also on the show, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses why the latest activity data suggest the global economy has so far proved surprisingly resilient in the face of the Iran conflict – and why that resilience could soon be tested. 

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Mike Green. They discuss why the Hormuz crisis hasn't derailed the S&P 500's surge to new all-time highs, Mike's disagreement with secular-inflation forecasts, why Kevin Warsh could be more likely to cut rates aggressively than hike, and the unintended consequences of passive investing through index funds. https://bit.ly/3R6TDhH    

Matt Weinzierl is Senior Associate Dean for Faculty Research and Development at Harvard Business School, where he is the Joseph and Jacqueline Elbling Professor of Business Administration in the Business, Government, and the International Economy Unit, and a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. From 2022 through 2025, he served as Faculty Chair of the MBA Program at HBS, where he also teaches courses on economic policy and the space sector. His research focuses on the optimal design of economic policy, in particular taxation, with an emphasis on better understanding the philosophical principles underlying policy choices, and on the commercialization of the space sector and its economic implications. Prior to completing his PhD in economics at Harvard University in 2008, Professor Weinzierl served as the Staff Economist for Macroeconomics on the President's Council of Economic Advisers and worked in the New York office of McKinsey & Company.  Professor Weinzierl has written on a range of topics in optimal taxation and optimal economic policy more generally. His work in Positive Optimal Tax Theory has focused on identifying and formalizing the goals for tax policy that hold sway among the public, political and economic leaders, and leading tax thinkers, and then characterizing the implications of using those objectives in the analysis of optimal taxation.Professor Weinzierl currently serves as Senior Associate Dean for Faculty Development and Research. He previously served as Senior Associate Dean, Chair of the MBA Program and as Chair of the MBA Required Curriculum (RC). Prior to those positions, he was the coursehead for Business, Government, and the International Economy (BGIE), an RC course, and Chair of MBA Community Standards and the Conduct Review Board at HBS. He has created and currently teaches two courses in the Elective Curriculum: The Role of Government in Market Economies (RoGME) and Space, Public and Commercial Economics (SPACE).Space to Grow: Unlocking the Final Economic Frontierhttps://shorturl.at/5W1QU

Liz Ann Sonders and Collin Martin examine the market backdrop shaped by the Middle East conflict, noting that while oil price volatility has influenced inflation expectations and Treasury yields, its broader economic impact has been limited so far due to lag effects and structural shifts in the U.S. economy. Meanwhile, investor attention has returned to earnings season and AI-driven growth, with a narrow group of mega-cap companies responsible for a disproportionate share of earnings upgrades—highlighting ongoing concentration risks in both markets and fundamentals. Then, Collin Martin is joined by Inga Rachwald, director and senior investment portfolio strategist supporting Schwab Asset Management. Inga addresses common challenges, including the perceived breakdown of diversification during periods of market concentration or rising rates, and explains why these are often misinterpretations driven by inappropriate benchmarks. The discussion introduces goal-based investing as a more practical framework, aligning portfolios with specific time horizons and objectives rather than short-term performance comparisons. Finally, Collin and Liz Ann look ahead to next week's upcoming macroeconomic indicators and key data releases.  To learn more about behavioral biases that can cloud your judgment, check out the latest episode of the Choiceology podcast, hosted by Katy Milkman. On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.  If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts. Important Disclosures This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The securities, investment products and investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Diversification, asset allocation and rebalancing strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets. Rebalancing may cause investors to incur transaction costs and, when a non-retirement account is rebalanced, taxable events may be created that may affect your tax liability. Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy. Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. Lower rated securities are subject to greater credit risk, default risk, and liquidity risk. Currency trading is speculative, very volatile and not suitable for all investors. Investing in cryptocurrencies involves risk, including the risk of total loss of principal invested. Cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin and ethereum are highly volatile, are not backed or guaranteed by the bank, any central bank or government; are not deposits; are not FDIC insured; are not SIPC protected; and lack many of the regulations and consumer protections that legal-tender currencies and regulated securities have. Investing in alternative investments is speculative, not suitable for all clients, and generally intended for experienced and sophisticated investors who are willing and able to bear the high economic risks of the investment. Investors should obtain and carefully read the related prospectus or offering memorandum, which will contain the information needed to help evaluate the potential investment and provide important disclosures regarding risks, fees and expenses. All names and market data shown are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data. The policy analysis provided by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions Inverse correlation refers to investments that tend to move in opposite directions: when one rises, the other falls. (0526-DH17) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Ashley Wright and Tim van der Weyden Leveraged Finance Portfolio Managers, join Mike Reed, Head of Global Financial Institutions, to explain high yield bonds and leveraged loans. They discuss how the market has undergone a remarkable transformation in recent years, evolving from its reputation as a speculative ‘junk bond' space into a sophisticated, well-regulated asset class offering compelling, risk-adjusted returns. Yet despite attractive yields, recent turmoil in private credit markets has renewed investor concerns about leverage and liquidity, and in this episode, they highlight how active management, strong capital markets relationships and rigorous downside protection are key to navigating the asset class.

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Louis-Vincent Gave. They'll discuss, what's going on in the conflict and what it will mean for global markets in the coming months. https://bit.ly/42T7eeW    

If you've been losing sleep wondering whether your job will survive the AI revolution, congratulations: you're already doing more strategic thinking than most C-suites. That, in essence, is the bracing message Dr. Kelly Monahan brought to a recent Snowpal podcast conversation with founder Krish Palaniappan. Kelly, who studies the future of work and has done time in the research trenches at Deloitte, Accenture, and Meta, has the rare distinction of having started her HR career by laying people off because of robotic process automation. It is, as career origin stories go, the equivalent of a firefighter whose first day on the job involves lighting a match. Twenty years later, the technology is more polite about it (chatbots are nothing if not cheerful), but the underlying question is the same: what is a human worker actually for?

Bob responds to a new working paper from the Geo-chartalism project, which claims to offer a complete theory of the price level by combining insights from Menger, Cantillon, and Warren Mosler. Bob argues that the paper overlooks a crucial prior contribution: Mises' regression theorem, developed in The Theory of Money and Credit, which already solved the circularity problem in monetary theory that the paper claims required Mosler to resolve. Along the way, Bob also explains chartalism, Georgism, and Mises's explanation of the absolute price level.Related:Bob's Paper Critiquing Kevin Carson's Studies in Mutualist Political Economy: Mises.org/HAP548aGeorge Charles, “The Mosler-Cantillon-Menger Synthesis”: Mises.org/HAP548bMMT vs. Austrian School Debate: Mises.org/HAP548cThe Mises Institute is giving away 100,000 copies of Hayek for the 21st Century. Get your free copy at Mises.org/HAPodFree

Bob responds to a new working paper from the Geo-chartalism project, which claims to offer a complete theory of the price level by combining insights from Menger, Cantillon, and Warren Mosler. Bob argues that the paper overlooks a crucial prior contribution: Mises' regression theorem, developed in The Theory of Money and Credit, which already solved the circularity problem in monetary theory that the paper claims required Mosler to resolve. Along the way, Bob also explains chartalism, Georgism, and Mises's explanation of the absolute price level.Related:Bob's Paper Critiquing Kevin Carson's Studies in Mutualist Political Economy: Mises.org/HAP548aGeorge Charles, “The Mosler-Cantillon-Menger Synthesis”: Mises.org/HAP548bMMT vs. Austrian School Debate: Mises.org/HAP548cThe Mises Institute is giving away 100,000 copies of Hayek for the 21st Century. Get your free copy at Mises.org/HAPodFree

Peter McCrory, the Head of Economics at AI juggernaut Anthropic, joins the Inside Economics team to consider all things AI and the economy. The discussion begins with how the group is using Claude in our work, then shifts to AI's current and expected lift to productivity, and to the underappreciated economic ramifications of AI. It turns out that Lancaster PA, is turning out some great economists. Guest: Peter McCrory, Head of Economics at Anthropic For more from Peter McCrory: https://peter-mccrory.github.io/ Read The Macroeconomic Consequences of AI and Aging and the Productivity Puzzle Email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com for more info about the Moody's Summit '26 Conference in San Diego Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Daniel Lacalle.  They'll discuss secular inflation, precious metals, the greater risk to Europe from the energy crisis, and much more. https://bit.ly/42Ek4O5.    

Basil Halperin is an assistant professor of economics at the University of Virginia. In Basil's first appearance on the show he discusses the famous but flawed Citrini essay, why Silicon Valley's growth expectations aren't showing up yet in interest rates, the impact of Less Than Zero by George Selgin, what the true frictions in the economy are, the differences between Calvo and menu-cost pricing, the impact of transformational AI on emerging economies and the housing market, and much more. Watch the full length video on our new YouTube Channel! Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on March 27th, 2026 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow Basil Halperin on X: @BasilHalperin Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our Macro Musings merch! Timestamps 00:00:00 - Intro 00:02:20 - Global Intelligence Crisis 00:07:04 - Transformative AI and Interest Rates 00:21:05 - Optimal Monetary Policy Under Menu Costs 00:48:13 - Transformative AI and its Macro Implications 00:55:41 - Outro

In this episode, Schwab's Chief Investment Strategist Liz Ann Sonders and Head of Fixed Income Research and Strategy Collin Martin reflect on the questions they're hearing most from investors—dominated by geopolitical risks, rising oil prices, inflation, and growing anxiety about U.S. debt and deficits. They explain why concerns about a “tipping point” for Treasuries or the dollar have not shown up in historical data—and why demand for Treasuries remains resilient even as issuance grows. The conversation turns to the Federal Reserve, including what to watch in upcoming congressional hearings for Kevin Warsh and how inflation pressures complicate calls for lower rates or a smaller Fed balance sheet. Liz Ann and Collin also revisit the 60-40 portfolio debate, arguing that shifting inflation dynamics and the end of the “Great Moderation” require more nuanced diversification than simple stock‑bond splits. They close with a look at the Fed's near‑term focus on inflation over employment, key data releases like core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) and consumer sentiment, and why investors should be cautious about overreacting to headline payroll numbers that are often heavily revised. On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.  If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts. Important Disclosures This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The securities, investment products and investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Diversification and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets. Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy. Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. Lower rated securities are subject to greater credit risk, default risk, and liquidity risk. All names and market data shown are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data. The policy analysis provided by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions (0426-6VN9) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Ole Hansen. They'll discuss what comes next in the Iran conflict, what the longer-term implications are for energy markets, what's coming in food inflation and how to trade it, and a longer term outlook for secular inflation. https://bit.ly/3OXHPNV    

Consumer habits are shifting fast, and the pressure on grocery retailers to keep up has never been greater. On the latest RETHINK Retail Podcast, R.J. Hottovy of Placer.ai and Aidan Mittra, Co-founder of OrderGrid, discuss the state of the industry and how retailers can adapt to modern demands. THE KEY TAKEAWAYS: - Shoppers are more fluid than ever: Consumers are moving freely across in-store, pickup, and delivery channels based on convenience. Consistent execution across every touchpoint is now critical. - Retail routines are expanding: Macroeconomic pressure is driving shoppers to spread spending across discounters, club stores, and convenience retailers rather than relying on a single grocery brand. - Back-end operations are the differentiator: Heavy investment in front-end digital experiences means little without reliable inventory accuracy and quality behind the scenes. - AI in grocery is finding its footing: Current applications are largely front-end focused, but the foundation being built today will determine how effectively retailers can deploy AI operationally in the future. Winning in modern grocery retail starts not with the customer-facing experience, but with the operational infrastructure powering it.

Earnings season kicks off with a mixed but generally constructive signal for markets, as Liz Ann Sonders and Collin Martin examine what corporate profits reveal about macroeconomic and market health. While equity investors tend to focus on near‑term earnings growth, Collin emphasizes that bond markets care more about long‑term cash flows and companies' ability to service debt. Aggregate corporate profits remain strong when viewed through broad measures like NIPA profits (National Income and Product Accounts), supporting investment, employment, and overall financial stability, even as borrowing costs drift higher due mainly to rising Treasury yields rather than widening credit spreads. Beneath that positive backdrop, however, stresses are emerging in lower‑quality areas of the market. Collin highlights ongoing weakness among the riskiest high‑yield borrowers, where interest coverage ratios remain below sustainable levels, raising the risk of defaults if rates stay elevated. Liz Ann connects this theme to equity markets, noting a shift toward profitability and balance‑sheet strength, particularly a reversal in small‑cap performance, where profitable companies are now outperforming non‑profitable "zombie" companies. At the same time, earnings estimates have begun to deteriorate, with negative revisions concentrated in the near term and strength increasingly isolated to a small group of large-cap technology companies. While markets appear to be betting on a resolution to the Iran conflict, risks remain tied to oil prices, inflation expectations, and consumer health, especially among lower‑income households. Finally, Collin and Liz Ann discuss which key economic data to watch in the coming weeks. You can read the article "Gambler's Blues: Betting Isn't Investing" on Schwab.com. On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting. If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts. Important Disclosures This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The securities, investment products and investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Diversification and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets. Small-cap stocks are subject to greater volatility than those in other asset categories. Small-Cap Company Risk. Small-cap companies may be more vulnerable to adverse business or economic events than larger, more established companies and their securities may be riskier than those issued by larger companies. The value of securities issued by small-cap companies may be based in substantial part on future expectations rather than current achievements and their prices may move sharply, especially during market upturns and downturns. In addition, small-cap companies may have limited financial resources, management experience, product lines and markets, and their securities may trade less frequently and in more limited volumes than the securities of larger companies. Further, small-cap companies may have less publicly available information and such information may be inaccurate or incomplete. Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy. Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. Lower rated securities are subject to greater credit risk, default risk, and liquidity risk. High-yield securities and unrated securities of similar credit quality (junk bonds) are subject to greater levels of credit and liquidity risks and may be more volatile than higher-rated securities. High-yield securities are considered predominately speculative with respect to the issuer's continuing ability to make principal and interest payments. All names and market data shown are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Commodity-related products carry a high level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Commodity-related products may be extremely volatile, may be illiquid, and can be significantly affected by underlying commodity prices, world events, import controls, worldwide competition, government regulations, and economic conditions. International investments involve additional risks, which include differences in financial accounting standards, currency fluctuations, geopolitical risk, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. Investing in emerging markets may accentuate this risk. Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data. Schwab does not recommend the use of technical analysis as a sole means of investment research. The policy analysis provided by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions (0426-4BTY) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Luke Gromen. They discuss the Iran crisis, its knock-on effects, and what it means for inflation looking ahead. https://bit.ly/4ctlZtj     

Unlocking the Power of Frontier Partnerships Subscribe to our Newsletter:https://theultimatepartner.com/ebook-subscribe/Check Out UPX:https://theultimatepartner.com/experience/ In this compelling discussion from the Ultimate Partners Winter Retreat, Microsoft GM Katharine Kennedy joins Vince Menzione to break down the operating models of “Frontier Firms.” Katharine shares her incredible journey of scaling the ServiceNow partnership from zero to $1 billion in TCV and reveals her current mission: building Adobe into the next great frontier firm for Microsoft. The conversation dives deep into the necessity of AI-led innovation, the critical importance of placing trust at the center of every technological stack, and why traditional quarterly business reviews are being replaced by real-time, constant connectivity. Whether you are an ISV, SDC, or channel partner, this session provides a roadmap for navigating the tectonic shifts in the AI ecosystem through organizational alignment and shared vision. Key Takeaways Frontier firms integrate AI up and down the UI, agent, and data layers while evolving their internal operating systems. Successful partnerships require a shared vision at the highest level that melds two mission statements into a single belief system. The traditional QBR is becoming outdated, replaced by real-time, constant communication across engineering and product teams. Trust must be the primary pillar of AI development, supported by core principles like fairness, reliability, and accountability. Leading with co-innovation and customer-centric data solutions is more effective than leading strictly with revenue goals. Strategic use of the Microsoft Marketplace remains a “hidden gem” for achieving scale and high-velocity growth. https://youtu.be/OU22MIfs-1A If you're ready to lead through change, elevate your business, and achieve extraordinary outcomes through the power of partnership—this is your community. At Ultimate Partner® we want leaders like you to join us in the Ultimate Partner Experience – where transformation begins. Key Tags: Frontier Firms, SDC, Microsoft GM, Adobe Partnership, ServiceNow, AI Operating Model, Responsible AI, Co-innovation, Partner Value Chain, Organizational Alignment, Microsoft Marketplace, TCV, Data Sovereignty, AI Agents, Adobe Firefly, Azure, Ecosystem Growth, Digital Transformation, AI Governance, Strategic Partnerships, Tech Leadership. Transcript: Katharine Kennedy Vince Menzione: [00:00:00] Honestly, it’s people. Yes, with agents. Um, and I know we hear that and it’s very like, oh, what does it mean? Are we really using it? I cannot tell you how many agents I use in a day. We just finished Ultimate Partners Winter Retreat here in beautiful Boca to a sold out crowd. Come join me now for a compelling discussion on the impacts of the tectonic shifts we’re all seeing. We, we’ve talked about MSP, we’ve talked about channel. We’ve talked about marketplace. We haven’t really dug deep into the SDC conversation, and I still, that doesn’t roll off my tongue. I still say ISV in my own mind, but the software development corporations, um, we’ve had several executives from that, from that world. Sandy Gupta has been. Um, many time guests, uh, at, at, at our events and we really wanted to double click. And I was so fortunate to meet Katherine Kennedy several months ago and learned about what [00:01:00] she’s doing and what the work that she’s driving. So I wanna invite her on stage ’cause we’re gonna have a very intimate conversation by Yeah, we call these so great to have you here. And, uh, you’re a GM at Microsoft, which is a big deal, by the way. A lot of people don’t know that. Thank you. And you’re running, uh, two of, I’d say two of the most significant partners within the Microsoft ecosystem. I would say obviously two. Now. Just one. Okay. We’re doubling down on focus. So nice to meet everybody. I, I wish there was a fire ’cause it did. What you Well come on. This goes off heat by the way. We get back off a little bit. This goes off our, so all good. So tell us, give us your, yeah. Give us your background and your role. Katharine Kennedy: Sure. So Catherine Kennedy. Nice to meet you all. Um, I’m a GM at Microsoft previously overseeing both the ServiceNow and the Adobe practice. Um, spent the last four years building ServiceNow too. What now our previous guests got to refer to as our REO, you know, exciting, uh, big growth [00:02:00] partnership. Um, so we took that from, for them from $0 in terms of shared revenue to a billion dollars in TCV. Um, and they have one of the largest Macs now with Microsoft. And we did that over the course of three years. So we’ll talk a little bit about. Um, the mindset, uh, and the operating models and things that we implemented with ServiceNow. Um, and then at the time, um, they asked me to take on Adobe as well. And when we saw the opportunity at Adobe, we said, wow, we really need to focus here. And so I have the privilege of being able to focus on Adobe this year. And, um. What I’m most excited about is the ecosystem and the ecosystem opportunity with Adobe as we build them into the next frontier firm or Microsoft. Vince Menzione: And of course we use the term spark, the ecosystem, so yes. Um, so let’s, let’s dive in [00:03:00] here. Use the term mindset. I was thinking about mindset. Market shift, frontier Firm, how do those things align together? Microsoft has been talking, I mean, Judson up on stage and Ignite talking about frontier firms. Nina’s talked about frontier firms. This is a shift in how organizations operate. Yes. In for some, yes. Uh, for others. I was thinking, what are you seeing across the SDC community specifically where you’ve managed before, where you’re managing now, but with ServiceNow and Adobe as an examples? What defines a company that’s truly making this leap? Katharine Kennedy: So as we’re looking at these frontier firms, uh, especially in the S-D-C-I-C spaces, we’re looking at, um, how do they implement AI up and down their stack, but then across the operating system, um, and. I refer to it in our business as the partnership value chain. ’cause we look at our SDCs and ISVs as partners. Um, and so the partner operating model between Microsoft and in this [00:04:00] case, Adobe or ServiceNow, has to be solely in lockstep and moving at warp speed. It’s as, as we’ve been talking about all day, it’s just moving so fast and so the tighter. We’re connected. The Cohesity across the company, um, is absolutely critical, but it’s AI up and down, AI across, um, and what I mean by that is, uh. That’s from the UI layer to the agent layer down to the data layer. So unlocking all of the layers of the stack. And then across the operating model, how are we empowering each executive to buy in on that North star or that strategy that we have jointly? And then how do we drive that operationally to execute at the field level? And that’s. Probably the biggest undertaking, um, I’ve ever done because it’s really you, your team becomes, uh, [00:05:00] these we’re like ants running between two giant companies. I mean, it’s just back and forth, back and forth, back and forth. And um, that’s really the art and the science of it is that honestly it’s people. Yes. Um, and I know we hear that and it’s very like, oh, what does it mean? Are we really using it? I cannot tell you how many agents I use in a day. It’s truly remarkable. Vince Menzione: You mentioned North Star, so I wanted to Yeah. Can I double click on it? Katharine Kennedy: Please do. Yes. Happy to. Vince Menzione: Yeah. I think about mission and purpose and all that tying into North Star. Are, are you implying that an organization needs to get its North Star, right? First and then how, how, and what, what are most of these organizations you’re seeing today, not the ones you manage, but other organizations in the SDC portfolio? Like where are they in terms of the continuum? How are, how are they moving along and what’s your guidance to them? Katharine Kennedy: It’s a good question. So I’ll start by saying my observation, my opinion is [00:06:00] as I’m looking across the companies that are successful and the ones who are yet to be successful, um, the key differentiator is that there is a shared vision at the highest level of the company that drives all the way down to the field. And what I mean by that is we’re taking two mission statements and we’re melding them together. Then we’re creating a belief system and it becomes a cultural shift across two companies versus, Hey, we’re gonna have all of these siloed, tactical, yeah. Operating units and they’re gonna do their own thing and maybe they’ll be successful over here. Maybe they’re doing something different over here, but we’re really. I think I heard Nina say this also, we’re pulling that red thread through the company. Yes. Um, which is critical. And I’ve seen so many companies just show up for the revenue. And yes, that’s an absolute outcome and it’s a [00:07:00] tremendous outcome if you do it right, but you have to do it right. You have to pull that red thread and you have to have every single part of the. Partner value chain buying into this strategy and this North Star, and if they don’t, if one piece of that chain is not bought in, you fail. Yeah. Vince Menzione: Organizational alignment is what you’re saying and what, what I’m hearing is in order, in terms of getting the AI Strat, the North Star aligned. Yes. You’ve gotta get the, I call the C-Suite aligned. Yes. You need to get all the functions of the organization aligned to the thread that you talked about. Yes. And then what does that look like? What does that North Star look like? What is it, what is the ideal example of what the North Star would look like? I’m, I’m a frontier firm. I brought in on ai, music agent ai. I’m doing all the things that we’ve talked about earlier. Katharine Kennedy: Yes. Um, so I think it, so operationally, um, it’s moving the operational rhythm from what used to be [00:08:00] qbr. Frankly, I think that’s outdated. Yes, it is. It is real time, constant communication. And yes, there will be checkpoints and they could be weekly, they could be monthly, they could be quarterly, but this is just real time constant communication because the pace of business, the pace of innovation is going so fast. We have to have that direct line of communication product to product team. We have to have that direct line of communication, engineering to engineering, because with everything going in on. Everything going on in the macroeconomic climate today, especially given concerns around sovereignty. Um, I run a global business, so we have customers saying, Hey, I don’t wanna host my data in a place where I don’t align with the values. That’s a real situation. That was actually a topic at Davos, as you mentioned, um, Nina. And so, um, we’re rapidly addressing these concerns with our customers and meeting our customers where they are. [00:09:00] Um, but it’s that real time constant connectivity. Um, and we’re frankly. We’re seeing it across the board. Um, but the operating model has to change. We have to look at more advanced, modern models, uh, for these partnership businesses to sustain in this next wave of transformation. Frankly, Vince Menzione: you know, it’s, so, you talked about values? Yes. This is, this leads into another conversation, right? When we talk about ai, we talk about, we talk about AI and the use, use cases. We skip over things like values and trust and governance. Katharine Kennedy: Oh, good segue. This is, this is my passion, please. Oh, I get so worked up about this. Good. So I, I had the privilege of, um, sitting, uh, with our SLC community a couple weeks ago, and, uh, they introduced, oh, here’s our amazing new, uh, pitch. We were just [00:10:00] speaking about it in the back actually. And, and it is, it’s amazing. And, uh, they said, do you have any feedback? And I was like, oh. And I waited and I saw everybody, every, you know, oh, we need to change this or tweak that. And I, and I waited. And then at the last moment I stood up. I was like, okay, I gotta say it. I was like, you say intelligence and trust. I, this is a small tweak, but trust has to be first, foremost, first, last, center, everything. Trust has to be everything. And, um, and I truly mean that. And I think, you know. Of all the companies I’ve worked for and I’ve worked for quite a few, um, Microsoft is the company that I believe in the most that can do the most good in society and in the global. Macroeconomic economy, a anything right in the world, in your communities. Um, and so one of the things that really struck me, and I keep coming back to with Microsoft and the, the topic of trust is how Microsoft, [00:11:00] um, was first to the table in this, in this, um, moment of ai. You know, introduction a few years ago to say, Hey, we need a set of core values and ethics and principles that we’re all gonna, we’re all gonna marshal around and I haven’t heard it as much recently, and now it’s coming back. And, uh, you know, the, the six core principles that Microsoft used is, I’m just gonna tell you right now, our fairness, reliability and safety, privacy and security, inclusivity, um, transparency and accountability. And it’s not. Just six principles that you see on a poster in the offices. These are embedded, again, back to the operating model across every single aspect of our business. So within our product, within our engineering, even just in our collaboration tools, you could be sending a teams message and you’ll get a notification, Hey, this is not aligned to the Microsoft. Core [00:12:00] values of ai. And so there are gates and governance and guardrails built into every layer of our technology stack and then across the company in our operating rhythms. And that is what gets me so excited and gets me up at, at out of bed in the morning. Um. I actually got a call from Sila. No one wants a call from Sila. Does anybody know Sila? Uh, yeah. Yes. Okay. That’s our legal, that’s our legal team. Legal affairs. Sila. Yeah. No one wants that call. Uh, I actually, I got so excited. I was like, are you calling about responsible ai? ’cause I was one of the first, um, I was one of the first to raise my hand to say. We will sign up. Was it Brad Smith calling you? Oh gosh. Oh, that would be a dream. I think he’s so, I’m, I love him. I think he’s so cool. Um, I love that you actually, sorry, side, I’m gonna take you on a side tour. Next slide. Um, my favorite thing to do is pull up the news and you’re seeing something from the Prime Minister in, you know, Germany and Brad [00:13:00] Smith’s in the foreground Yes. Of every photo. You’re just like, wow, we’re influencing at such a global. Um, base that I could just, it’s hard to wrap your head around sometimes, but, so anyways, going back, I’m gonna take us back to trust. Um, please. Vince Menzione: Well, I just think we need to apply it back to ai, right? Because it is so important. It is. It is. These agents are out there and if they’re not governed and if you don’t Yeah, yeah. Katharine Kennedy: I’m so, so, yeah, thank you. Keeping me on track. So, so why I am excited about it is, is because, um. As we’re going out into our communities, um, we’re here in the southeast and one of the biggest issues that comes up over and over again is, how do I trust that AI is not gonna learn off my data? How am I gonna trust that it’s telling me the right information? And so on and so forth. And that’s when I get to this great conversation about trust and our responsible AI pact and, um. This is, this is truly what I mean, that it can be a force [00:14:00] multiplier, but it can be a force for good. And if you don’t have those guardrails and that governance and those principles aligned across the companies. You fall down, right? You fall down with the customers, you fall down with the organizations you’re serving. And so going back to our North Star two, we align there, we align with the values and the ethics, and then we can start to really build a business together. And that’s how we were able to do it so fast. And so, um, at such scale, at such global scale, um, with. ServiceNow, but now we’re going to take a mature partner in Adobe and we’re gonna take them to the frontier in a way you haven’t seen before. So. Just a little commercial. Adobe is gonna be announcing their Adobe marketing agent. I love it as GA next month. So they are a frontier firm for us. Yes, very exciting round of applause for Adobe there. For Adobe. Yeah. And more to come. So we’ll be [00:15:00] having, uh, their firefly, uh, video models coming out on Azure and available through Marketplace as well, um, coming soon. So lots of exciting things happening. Vince Menzione: Sounds exciting. So let’s talk about those partner big wins that you’re saying. Give us some examples of those. Katharine Kennedy: Now are you talking about from a Microsoft and Adobe co-innovation perspective? Yes, from the co-innovation perspective. Okay. Yeah. Um, so from a co-innovation perspective, this is. This is a labor of love. Um, I approach it in a very disciplined manner. The way that we look at, um, these frontier firms is we’re leading with co-innovation versus leading with revenue. And it’s a, it’s, it’s a paradigm shift that takes everyone to buy in back to my earlier point, but also, um, the hardest part is. Teaching companies, um, to do things differently. Uh, so we start with [00:16:00] engineering and product. And actually before we get there, we start with customer and we sit with our customers. We understand what our customers are asking for. We’re understanding the value that they need unlocked, and typically it’s at the data data layer. And so what we’re doing is we’re seeing, okay, what are the data things? What are the data silos that need to be unlocked? And so we start to kind of build up from there, taking the customer perspective. Then we sit with engineering and product and we say, okay, what do we have on the truck today? How can we elevate this to an AI led AI first motion that meets our customers where they are in their AI journey? And delivers value and business outcomes day one versus, hey, we have to go through this laborous process. One of the other things we’re seeing is forward deployed engineers. Um, so thinking about, Hey, how do we sit with our customers and start architecting. What they need to address their business challenges today, um, because AI [00:17:00] can solve a lot of this, right? And so it’s a really interesting model shift that we’re seeing across the board within Microsoft, within our largest ISVs, and within our customer and our, um, ecosystem community with our GSIs, our sis, as well as our channel. Vince Menzione: So I know we were. You’ve had a lot. We, we had Jason up here talking about marketplace. Yes. And Jason Grey, Ja. Oh no, Jason. R Jason. R Jason. Yeah. We’ve had Jason Grey. He’s had Jason Grey. Yes. Well, we, um, you’re, you ServiceNow got called out in that last set session. I know. I was thinking about marketplace and co-selling. Yes. And then ecosystem. So I wanna like tie those three things together if that’s possible with you. Like what are you seeing from a best practice perspective. Obviously ServiceNow has been a top a top partner. We’re starting to see a lot of, well, channel D, channel [00:18:00] resellers, and the like. What are you seeing from a best practice perspective and is there yes. Central opportunities there? Katharine Kennedy: Yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes. Okay. Three things. Um, one is AI led innovation. First and foremost, you gotta have the solution. You gotta have it. If you don’t have the solution, you don’t have something to sell. Second is a, um, AI led go to market hero motion. And what I mean by that, so in the, I’ll use ServiceNow as a, as a. Example ServiceNow. We created a, the first, uh, copilot plus, um, ServiceNow assist agent to agent go to market hero story. It landed really well with our customers and so we started to build off of that and we integrated across, um, up and down the stack. Like I mentioned, the data layer, the agent layer, and the ui. Um, and our customers were thrilled. They were like, wow. What else can we do with this? Can we unlock HR with this? Can we unlock. [00:19:00] What else can we do? Finance? Can we do finance? And so we started to see these, these moments in time where our customers were taking the technology and taking it to places we just hadn’t even thought about yet. Um, so I would say those two. And then the third would be, uh, making sure that we’re enabling the field. In a way that they know that story, they can tell that story, and then they have access to people to support that story. Um, and then wrap that in marketplace leverage micro, uh, marketplace as a scale motion. And now I know we still have opportunities to continue to improve around marketplace. Um, but we’ve come a long way and we’re seeing tremendous growth and scale out of this engine. So it’s, it’s definitely a hidden, um. I would say honestly, it’s still a hidden gem in the Microsoft. Uh. Bag, if you will. Vince Menzione: $300 billion in total.[00:20:00] Katharine Kennedy: Yeah, I seriously, yeah, but not anymore, I should say. Yes, I’ve been to Singing from the Rooftop. Yes. Vince Menzione: And you’re gonna be back this afternoon, right? Yes. A session with Ashley, so, oh, okay. I think, was it with Ash? Maybe? Oh know, maybe. I don’t know. Maybe. I’d be delighted it’ll be back the same. I’m happy to be back. I wanna make sure, I do wanna make sure, we’ll, we’ll cover some more of this there. Katharine Kennedy: And then the last thing, yeah. Shared KPIs. Yes. Shared KPIs. We gotta track it. We gotta be accountable. So get your vision aligned. Get your vision, get your organizations across all of the disciplines aligned. Yes. And then have a set of shared KPIs and owners for each of those KPIs. Yes. Right. And govern it. And govern it. Govern it, yeah. Report up to the CEO on a weekly basis, on a monthly basis, on a quarterly basis. I started reporting up to our CEO and he was like. What is she doing? He’s like, this business is going really, it’s growing fast. What is she doing? Can we do this somewhere else though? Um, it’s, you know, making sure people know the story, um, [00:21:00] and everyone’s buying in and they’re accountable. It’s, um, it’s a simple thing, but it’s powerful. Thank you for having me. Vince Menzione: Thank you so much. I really, yeah. Appreciate it. Thank you everyone. Alright, thanks. You don’t forget, ultimate Partner Live is coming soon, May 11th through the 13th in beautiful Bellevue, Washington. I hope to see you there.

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