Podcasts about bitcoin etf

In this week's episode of the Coin Stories News Block powered exclusively by Ledn, we cover these major headlines related to Bitcoin, macroeconomics, and global finance: Trump proposes a 10% cap on credit card interest rates Trump targets Wall Street firms buying single-family homes Government plan to buy a large amount of mortgage bonds to push mortgage rates down Defense budget could jump to $1.5 trillion MSCI keeps Bitcoin-holding companies in its indexes (for now) Morgan Stanley moves into Bitcoin: ETF, trading and wallet plans ---- The News Block is powered exclusively by Ledn – the global leader in Bitcoin-backed loans, issuing over $9 billion in loans since 2018, and they were the first to offer proof of reserves. With Ledn, you get custody loans, no credit checks, no monthly payments, and more. My followers get .25% off their first loan. Learn more at www.ledn.io/natalie  ---- Order my new intro to Bitcoin book "Bitcoin is For Everyone": https://amzn.to/3WzFzfU  ---- Read every story in the News Block with visuals and charts! Join our mailing list and subscribe to our free Bitcoin newsletter: https://thenewsblock.substack.com  —- References mentioned in the episode: Trump Bans Institutional Investors from Housing  Trump Announcement on Institutional Housing Ban Trump's Ban on Corporate Homebuying Blindsides Wall St. Trump Proposes to Raise Defense Spending by $500B Trump Instructs $200B of Mortgage Bond Buying Lyn Alden's Tweet In Response to Defense Spending Trump's Defense Spending Plan Could Raise Deficit Trump Restricts Defense Companies from Stock Buybacks Trump's Announcement on Defense Sector Restrictions  Trump Instructs Freddie and Fannie to Buy Bonds Trump's $200B MBS Order Asserts Power Over Market Erik Vorhees's Tweet on Credit Card Interest Cap Trump's Announcement on Credit Card Interest Cap Ackman: Trump's Credit Card Cap is a "Mistake" MSCI Decides Not to Exclude DATs from Indexes  MSCI's Announcement on Bitcoin Treasury Companies  Nate Geraci's Tweet on Morgan Stanley ETF Matt Hougan's Tweet on Morgan Stanley ETF Morgan Stanley Plans to Launch Crypto Wallet Morgan Stanley Files to Launch Spot Bitcoin ETF ---- Upcoming Events: Join as at Bitcoin Day in Naples this week! Use code NATALIE for discounted passes: https://bitcoinday.io  Strategy World 2026 in Las Vegas on February 23-26th - Use code HODL for discounted tickets: https://www.strategysoftware.com/world26  Bitcoin 2026 will be here before you know it. Get 10% off Early Bird passes using the code HODL: https://tickets.b.tc/event/bitcoin-2026?promoCodeTask=apply&promoCodeInput=  ---- This podcast is for educational purposes and should not be construed as official investment advice. ---- VALUE FOR VALUE — SUPPORT NATALIE'S SHOWS Strike ID https://strike.me/coinstoriesnat/ Cash App $CoinStories #money #Bitcoin #investing

Bitcoin holds around ~$90K as Brady and John frame the current range as a “higher floor” era with potential upside catalysts still intact“Healthy hopium” segment compares Bitcoin adoption to the internet's S-curve and revisits how skeptics routinely dismiss exponential technologiesDiscussion of long-horizon Bitcoin returns using a “wealth table” framing: short-term noise, long-term trend clarityLynn Alden's view: recent selloff lows may hold as liquidity conditions improve and excess “Bitcoin treasury company” activity gets washed outETF adoption story accelerates: Morgan Stanley launches branded Bitcoin and Solana ETFs, notably skipping EthereumBank of America/Merrill opens advisor access to multiple spot Bitcoin ETFs with a framed 1–4% allocation for suitable clientsETF flows remain resilient: outflows are modest relative to the drawdown, suggesting a stickier, longer-term holder baseMacro/politics: Supreme Court tariff case is approaching a decision, with markets likely reacting in a messy, sector-specific way rather than a clean “tariffs on/off” binaryHousing policy: Trump floats MBS buying to compress mortgage spreads and proposes restricting institutional purchases of single-family homes, with questions on feasibility and real impactDefense policy whiplash: conflicting announcements trigger sharp moves in defense stocks, highlighting policy-driven volatility risk Swan Private helps HNWI, companies, trusts, and other entities go beyond legacy finance with BItcoin. Learn more at swan.com/private. Put Bitcoin into your IRA and own your future. Check out swan.com/ira.Swan Vault makes advanced Bitcoin security simple. Learn more at swan.com/vault.

Jeff Park is a Partner & Chief Investment Officer at ProCap Financial. In this conversation, we break down the outlook for 2026, how bitcoin is positioned within global markets, and what shifting capital flows mean as major institutions like Morgan Stanley enter the space. Jeff also shares insights on geopolitics, artificial intelligence, and why these forces are increasingly shaping bitcoin and broader financial markets.=======================Simple Mining makes Bitcoin mining simple and accessible for everyone. We offer a premium white glove hosting service, helping you maximize the profitability of Bitcoin mining. For more information on Simple Mining or to get started mining Bitcoin, visit https://www.simplemining.io/=======================Uphold is the easiest way to buy and sell crypto unlike any other platform allowing you to trade in just one step between any supported asset. Check them out at ⁠https://uphold.sjv.io/K0RXra.⁠ This video includes a paid sponsorship with Uphold. I'm compensated by Uphold for promoting its products and services and may receive commissions from referrals. Terms apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Digital assets are risky and may result in the total loss of your capital.=======================Bitwise is one of the largest and fastest-growing crypto asset managers, with more than $15 billion in client assets across an expanding suite of investment solutions—including the world's largest crypto index fund—plus products spanning Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi, and crypto equities. In addition to managing assets, Bitwise helps investors stay informed about the fast-moving crypto market. Every week, CIO Matt Hougan breaks down what's happening in crypto in five minutes or less. Read the latest at https://experts.bitwiseinvestments.com/cio-memos. Certain Bitwise investment products may be subject to the extreme risks associated with investing in crypto assets. Visit https://bitwiseinvestments.com/disclosures to learn more.=======================Timestamps:0:00 – Intro1:59 – Bitcoin setup for 2026: positioning, flows, leverage4:35 – Volatility + drawdowns: are bear markets changing?7:49 – The “ideological investor” & 3 forces shaping 202613:48 – Venezuela bitcoin rumors & geopolitics driving markets20:15 – Gold/jewelry drama & verifying what's real23:06 – AI content & implications for the next generation34:05 – Morgan Stanley launching Bitcoin ETF & Solana ETF

First off — Happy New Year. To kick off the year, this week's episode of the Wealth Formula Podcast is a solo one from me. I spend the episode walking through my outlook for 2026 and sharing a few predictions for how I think this cycle is going to play out. Lately, I keep hearing the same question phrased in different ways. The economy feels tight, but markets are holding up. Growth is coming in stronger than expected, inflation is easing, and yet a lot of the signals people usually rely on just don't seem to be lining up. That disconnect is really the starting point for this episode. Rather than reacting to headlines or making short-term calls, I wanted to step back and talk through the mechanics of what's actually driving this environment — and why it looks so different from the cycles most of us learned about. A lot of it comes down to debt, policy constraints, how capital moves today, and the growing influence of technology. When you start looking at those pieces together, some of the things that feel confusing begin to make a lot more sense. This isn't meant to be alarmist or overly optimistic. It's simply an attempt to frame the environment clearly so you can think about it more intelligently — especially if you're deploying capital or deciding whether it makes sense to sit on the sidelines. If you've felt like the economy and the markets aren't really speaking the same language right now, I think you'll find this episode useful. Transcript Disclaimer: This transcript was generated by AI and may not be 100% accurate. If you notice any errors or corrections, please email us at phil@wealthformula.com.  You need to be out of the dollar and into the investor class because that that widening gap between those who have, who own things, who own assets and those who do not is gonna continue to widen. Welcome everybody. This is Buck Joffrey with the Wealth Formula Podcast, and today I am going to do something a little bit different. I’m gonna kind of give you. My perspective, maybe predictions I dare say about, uh, the upcoming year in 2026, how I look at it, what I think, uh, uh, is likely outcome and why. Not that I am any smarter than any of you on this stuff, but I’ve actually kind of sat down and, and thought about, you know, the things that are going on in the macroeconomic. Side of things and, um, put some stuff together and, uh, hopefully you’ll enjoy it. We’ll have, uh, that right after these messages. Wealth formula banking is an ingenious concept powered by whole life insurance, but instead of acting just as a safety net, the strategy supercharges your investments. First, you create a personal financial reservoir that grows at a compounding interest rate much higher than any bank savings account. As your money accumulates, you borrow from. Your own bank to invest in other cash flowing investments. Here’s the key. Even though you’ve borrowed money at a simple interest rate, your insurance company keeps paying you compound interest on that money even though you’ve borrowed it at result, you make money in two places at the same time. That’s why your invest. Get supercharged. This isn’t a new technique. It’s a refined strategy used by some of the wealthiest families in history, and it uses century old rock solid insurance companies as its backbone. Turbocharge your investments. Visit Wealthformulabanking.com. Again, that’s wealthformulabanking.com. Welcome back everyone, and, uh, happy New Year to you. I forgot to even say that in the intro. How rude of me. Hopefully you had a great holiday, you had a great Christmas, and you’re bringing in the new year with a vision of health and wealth and PO prosperity and all that stuff. So anyway, let’s talk a little bit about, uh, you know what I am. Kinda looking at for 2026. Now, when you think about, well, what are these predictions and what could they be and all that, um, interest rates, inflation markets, you know, uh, let’s set the foundation for how I’m thinking about it, because everything else really kind of builds on it. And the most important thing to understand is that debt. Is really now I think the main character in the economy. I know we, people have been talking about this for a very long time, but I think, I think the debt issue is really, really becoming something that cannot be ignored, and I’ll get into that in a while. Obviously, I’m not saying that inflation and interest rates don’t matter. They matter enormously. Uh, those are the things that people actually feel, right? Higher prices, higher mortgage rates, higher insurance costs. What I’m saying is that the level of debt now determines really how decisions on those things are made from policy makers. You know, how do they respond to inflation and interest rates, recessions market stress. What debt does is it actually kinda limits the range of choices around how policy makers react to all these things. So once you see that, the behavior of the economy starts to, I think, make a lot more sense. So let’s start with. Sovereign debt, and I’m gonna start really basic here because the question is, you know, what exactly is sovereign debt? Okay. And sovereign debt is the money a government owes, okay? In the US it exists because the government consistently spends more than it collects in taxes, and that gap is called the deficit. When that happens year after year, you have an accumulation of debt. Now, when debt is low, it’s, it’s pretty manageable, right? But when debt gets very large, it starts to influence policy decisions, and that’s where we are right now. Uh, here’s the key mechanic that I think most people don’t really think about, right? Governments don’t pay off debt the way you and I, you know, pay off our debt, like mortgage or whatever. They always refinance it, right? So when the US government borrows money, it issues bonds. That’s how it does, those bonds have maturity dates, and when you buy a bond, you’re, you know, you’re loaning the government money. So when a bond matures, the government owes that principle back to you. Right? So that’s, that’s kind of how well we talk about, we talk about debt, but the government doesn’t save money over time to pay off that bond. Like, I mean, that’s the way you would think about it for you and me, right? I mean, at some point you’re like, ah, I really need to pay off this debt. I’m just gonna pay it off with this money that I saved. Instead, what they do is when a bond comes due, it issues a new bond and uses the money from that new bond to pay back the old one. Okay. Now, if that sounds familiar, uh, to you, it’s because it’s pretty much what we would call in plain English refinancing, right? Now imagine though, the government issued a bond a few years ago when interest rates were near zero. That bond matures today, interest rates are much higher, right to pay off the old bond. The government issues a new one at today’s higher rates. So the debt doesn’t disappear, it just becomes more expensive to carry, right? I mean, it’s just like you got a mortgage, you know you had a, a great rate, but you only got it for seven years and all of sudden you gotta refinance it. Gosh, all of a sudden that rate went really higher and your payments are much higher, and the debt payments going up, you know, for the government, what adds to that deficit? It’s a really, really vicious cycle. Now, take that process and multiply it across trillions of dollars of debt. Now you can start seeing why interest rates matter so much in a high debt system. Now, what makes this especially important right now is that for over the last several years, the US issued a very large amount of short-term debt. Short-term debt matures quickly, and that means large portions of government debt. Come due every year and have to be refinanced at whatever the interest rate exists at the time. So even if deficit stock growing tomorrow, which they won’t, the government would still need smooth functioning financial markets just to keep refinancing what it al what already exists now. This is why the economy has become so sensitive to interest rates, liquidity and confidence. Higher interest rates increase the cost of refinancing, right? We’ve mentioned that already. And that pushes deficits higher and forces even more borrowing. So I mentioned liquidity. What is that? Well, liquidity is about how easily money moves through the system. When liquidity is good, bonds are easily absorbed. Banks lend markets function normally, and when liquidity dries up, refinancing becomes fragile. That stress. Stress in the market spreads quickly. And then finally, confidence I mentioned too. Why does confidence matter? Well, confidence matters because investors need to believe that the system is gonna hold together. When confidence weakens, guess what happens? Well, what would happen if you think about it with a loan, a higher risk loan? While investors demand higher yields like refinance, it becomes even more expensive. And problems compound fast. Now, this is why Pol policymakers are extremely uncomfortable with high borrowing costs, reduced lending, falling asset values, and deep recessions. Recessions, by the way, don’t make debt easier to manage. They make it harder by reducing tax revenue and worsening debt ratios. Now that brings me to a, something that I am feeling sort of back and forth with. Um. You know, a listener who sent me some commentary about, you know, the fear of going back to 1970s, eighties style interest rates. But the thing is that I just don’t think that comparison works, and here’s why. Okay, so in the 1970s, the US had far less debt. Interest rates could go very high without threatening the government’s ability to refinance itself. Now today, with debt much larger relative to the economy, very high rates don’t just fight inflation. They stress the entire financial structure, right? You can’t just say, oh, we’re gonna make super high rates because the cost of all that debt the government has is gonna be extraordinarily expensive. Now, that doesn’t mean that rates can’t rise. It means policymakers have far less tolerance for how high and how long rates can stay elevated. It’s a completely different system from the 1970s and eighties. So I think trying to put things into that context is probably not, um, not a, a good way to think about it. So why am I fo focusing on this right now? Uh, instead of a few years ago, because again, we stu we didn’t suddenly become a high debt economy this year. So what changed? Well timing a massive amount of debt that was issued at very low interest rates, as I mentioned before, is now maturing and being refinanced at much higher rates, and that shift is no longer theoretical. It’s happening in real time. Last year, much of that low uh, rate, debt was still in place. Interest costs hadn’t fully reset, but going into 2026, they have no, I, I keep talking about, you know, how much we’re paying an interest, right? Because again, that’s a big difference between now and the 1970s when you could have, you know, you didn’t have as much debt so you could pay more interest on it. Right now, the US is now spending roughly a trillion dollars a year just on interest. Her perspective, right? I mean, what’s a trillion dollars? Uh, what does that even mean for the normal person? Well, for Perce perspective, that’s the defense budget. $1 trillion. It’s more than Medicare, more than most major federal programs. And the thing is that money doesn’t do anything, right. It doesn’t create growth. It just services past borrowing. And this is the point where debt stops being background noise, kind of an annoyance that people just say, well, we’ll kick it to the next generation. It start starts actively shaping, uh, policy decisions because it’s, it’s a thing that you gotta pay for. You gotta keep paying for it. So the takeaway I want you to carry forward is simple. We now live in a system where policymakers don’t have the luxury of letting things break when debt is low. Governments can tolerate deep recessions like you saw in the seventies and eighties and long recoveries. When debt is high, they can’t because even small shocks can just really get outta control quickly. And that’s the framework I think, uh, that I’m using as we move into interest rates, inflation, and what all this means for markets going into 2026. So let’s talk about interest rates. You’ve heard me say that I think that interest rates are gonna come down. Um, they’re gonna continue to tick down a little bit. I don’t think a lot, but I do think there’ll probably be at least one more rate cut. I think, you know, you’re probably gonna have some, um, uh, some lowering in the 10 year and, and the bond market in general. Uh, but interest rates are not gonna go back to 2010, right? They just aren’t. And. The 2010s were not normal. There were a very specific period created by very specific conditions, right? Inflation was persistently low, uh, but just wouldn’t go up. Globalization, uh, push prices down. Capital was abundant. Debt levels, well, they were high, but they’re rising, but they hadn’t become what they are now. And because of that, central banks could hold rates near zero without much consequence. That environment, unfortunately, does not exist now. So today, debt is much higher. Inflation risk is real again, and investors expect to be compensated for lending money long term. So even when rates decline from current levels, they do not return, uh, they will not return to where people, uh, anchor them psychologically. If they’re thinking about the 2000 tens, they’re gonna settle higher. Within the 2000 tens baseline, you see policymakers are kind of stuck if rates, uh, say too high for too long. We mentioned this before. Refinancing government debt becomes increasingly expensive. Interest costs rise, deficits, widen, and then you get that financial stress that’s spreads through the credit markets. But if rates are pushed too low for too long, borrowing accelerates. And that’s. When inflation resurfaces and confidence in the currency weakens, so then that’s the tug of war. So policymakers, uh, you know, they, they can no longer choose between high rates and low rates. They’re gonna be choosing how to manage, uh, the trade-offs, right? So what’s gonna happen is that you’re gonna see that rates are gonna move within a range. Uh, they come down when something breaks, they move back up when inflation pressures recurrent. Um, that’s why volatility matters more than the exact. Level of rates going forward, in my opinion. So we’re, we’re not returning to free money. We are also not headed to a permanent 1970 style high rate world. What we are doing is entering a time where borrowing costs matter. Again, refinancing is not guaranteed, and rate swings are part of the system, and that naturally leads to the question of inflation. So once you understand why rates. You know, don’t go back to the 2010. The next question becomes, uh, well, if policymakers can’t keep rates high for long and they can’t push them back to zero either, then what are they actually trying to ac accomplish? Well, the answer is that, that the goal is kind of shifted for decades. Economic policy was focused on disinflation, um, you know, pushing inflation lower and lower. Over time, uh, and inflation was actually treated as a failure, and that made sense. In a world with lower debt in a high debt world, that logic sort of breaks down, right? Deflation, which is actually falling prices, increases the real value of debt. Think about that for a moment. Like just in terms of. You know, you have a mortgage and you know, sometime, you know, your parents might have like a 30 year mortgage or something like that, that they’ve had for 25 years. They’ve been paying it off and it’s great. But the bigger thing to notice is the amount of money that they borrowed is actually very small in real world dollars because it’s, you know, 25 years later. See, inflation is bad when it’s, you know, you’re dealing with it, but inflation is. Good at one other thing, which is it’s good at eroding debt. It will make, uh, the amount of the value of the, you know, the actual money that you owe on debt lower over time. So that’s why you can’t have deflation, right? You can’t have deflation because that increases the real value of the debt. It discourages spending, slows growth and makes refinancing harder. So in today’s system, deflation is way, way more dangerous than moderate inflation. And so because of that inflation really isn’t something that I think is quite as important that has to be eliminated at all costs. That, you know, you have to be right at 2%, which is, you know, kind of what the, the fed his, his target is, right? Instead, what you gotta do is you gotta manage it. Of course, that doesn’t mean you want runaway inflation. What they wanna do is have enough inflation to keep nominal growth positive and prevent debt burdens from become heavier again. Why? What do I mean by that? You gotta have enough inflation to erode the debt that we have, right? So this is why that 2% inflation target should be understood. As, you know, kind of aspirational, but not absolute because having a little higher inflation, yeah, it hurts people. It’s, uh, it hurts people on a day-to-day basis, but actually helps with that. So even at, uh, you know, inflation sell a bit higher than, than, than the, you know, 2% fed target say it’s 4%, it’s actually eroding, uh, you know, it is eroding purchasing power, but it’s also eroding debt. It’s, it’s stabilizing debt dynamics. From the system’s perspective, of course that’s helpful. But for us, we’re paying for things on a day-to-day basis to see the cost of eggs and all that. It’s, it’s frustrating, right? And that tension between system stability and personal cost, it’s one of the defining features of the economy heading into 2026. So when you see policymakers tolerate inflation, uh, longer. Then you think they should or step in quickly When markets kind of wobble, it’s not confusion or incompetence, it’s actually constraint because debt limits the available choices. Rates are managed within a range. Inflation is guided and not eliminated. Now put those together and you get the environment we’re moving into, which is an economy where markets can look. Resilient, even while people feel stretched, right? I mean, that’s kinda what we’re feeling. Everybody’s like, oh, these markets are doing fantastic, you know? But then, you know, you look at consumer confidence, it goes down. It’s been going down every month. This is an environment where asset prices recover faster than wages, and we’re understanding how policy reacts becomes a real advantage. So that’s kind of my macro setup for 2026. Um, you know, with that framework, we can start looking into the first prediction I’ll make. And again, these are not, you know, crazy predictions. Uh, they are just generalized things that I think you’re gonna see. So, like the first one is that the markets will stop being reliable proxy for the economy. You could argue that’s already happened, right? Markets in the economy kind of stopped correlating. We saw it after the financial crisis, right? We saw it very clearly even during COVID. The decoupling itself is not new. What’s new is that that decoupling is no longer temporary. It’s become the baseline that’s become the new normal. Uh, for most of modern history people had a fairly reliable mental model, right? You probably do. If you grew up in the eighties and nineties, uh, as a kid or whatever, when the economy felt bad, layoffs, we growth falling in con incomes, markets usually reflected the pain. Right. Sometimes there was a gap. Sometimes markets recovered a little earlier, but eventually things kinda re converged. The economy healed. We just caught up in the markets and lived experience kinda lined up. Now that’s the model that most people still have in their heads, and that’s why so many people feel so confused right now. I mean, I feel confused by it. So what’s changed going into 2026? You know, it, it is, it’s structural Now. We’re no longer living in a system where policy intervenes only during emergencies. We are, uh, in a system where policy is always on, debt is permanently high, rates are actively managed, inflation is tolerated rather than eliminated. And as a result of that, markets aren’t really necessarily responding primarily to how. The economy feels to people they’re responding. Uh, you know, it’s responding to refinancing needs. Liquidity management. Uh, confidence preservation. That’s a very different signal. COVID is the clearest example of that ship, but it’s, it’s important to understand it correctly. So in 2020, the economy was literally shut down, right? Unemployment exploded. Uh, small businesses were collapsing, right? Like, this is COVID and yet markets bottom quickly. We saw that and then bam. All time highs, even though life kind of felt terrible for a lot of people. And that wasn’t because the economy was healthy, it was because policy overwhelmed fundamentals. And at the time that felt extraordinary. It felt very different. Like this doesn’t make any sense. What’s different now is that we’re still using the same playbook but with out in obvious crisis. So intervention is no longer reactive. It’s, you know, uh, it’s preventative. So what do I predict for 2026? Well, markets are gonna stop being a reliable proxy for economic health. Uh, you, you people can just stop talking about that. Like it, like it, it means anything anymore. Markets going to increasingly reflect how constrained policymakers are and how much liquidity is in the system, and how aggressively risk is being managed. They’re not gonna, the markets are not gonna tell you. About affordability, wage pressure, or whether life feels easier or harder for people. Right. Those are completely gonna, those are, it’s just a standard thing now that those are uncorrelated and the gap is not, uh, abnormal anymore. It’s. The operating environment. So what do you do with that information? Well, for an individual investor, this environment requires a real mindset shift, right? You can’t rely on your gut anymore. You can’t say, man, I feel like this economy doesn’t feel good. So the market’s gonna look at the, I mean, you, you, you know, a lot of people feel like the economy doesn’t feel good to them because of inflation, because of what happened with interest rates and all that stuff, right? But look it, you’ve got. Record breaking, uh, stock market numbers. You can’t rely on your gut anymore. Your gut is telling you the economy feels bad. For many people, that’s absolutely true. Costs are high. Again, things feel tight, and the instinct is to wait to sit in cash. To assume markets would reflect that pain, but that instinct used to work. And in this system it doesn’t because markets are no longer pricing in how the economy feels. They’re pricing policy response. Liquidity and constraints. So if you wait for the economy to feel good before you act, it’s gonna be way too late. So instead of asking, does the economy feel weak, you need to start asking different questions. You need to ask how constrained policymakers are, how quickly liquidity will return if markets wob on it, and where capital tends to flow first when policy steps sit. In other words. You gotta start really thinking about investing, right? Like you gotta, like right now. Now I’ve talked, I’ve beat this over many times before, but you know, you have, if you’re, if you’re saving money right now and you’re looking and you are wondering what to do, look for things that are on sale now. I spent real estate’s on sale right now. Right? Get your money into the markets one way or another. That’s what I would say. Whatever it is that you want to invest in. Don’t let your money just erode because this lack of correlation is, it’s a really, really important thing and it’s, it’s gonna continue to happen and you know what else is gonna happen Because of that, you’re gonna see an increasing widening up the wealth gap. People whose income is tied primarily to wages are, are gonna experience that inflation directly, right? Their money’s trapped in the real economy where costs rise faster than income. But investors on the other hand, have an opportunity to participate in the markets that are supported by this sort of unnatural infrastructure that I just mentioned, right? As asset prices are gonna continue going up. Now, I’m not here to judge whether that’s a good thing or a bad thing, I’m just telling you how it’s functions. So the investor class increasingly benefits from asset appreciation, right? Early access to liquidity. While lower income groups often can participate in that upside. Even as their cost of living rise, because they’re not in the markets, they’re not, they don’t own assets. So again, you have to stop, you know, using how the economy feels is your primary investing signal. If you wanna protect and grow your wealth in this environment, you need to understand how policy reacts, how you know liquidity moves, how assets behave when the system is under constraint. And in other words, uh, you know. Frankly, you just need to be part of the winning class, which is the investor class. Alright, so that’s kind of, uh, hopefully that made sense to you. Here’s another prediction for you, and this is probably more related to some of the things that we talk about usually, but I’ll say that multifamily and commercial real estate are going to finish their washout, and the window is gonna start to really close again. I’ve talked about this. Before, you’ve probably heard me say this, but let’s talk about multifamily and commercial real estate again, because you know, this audience doesn’t need just theory. You’ve already lived through the pain or the past two years you’ve seen deals blow up, capital calls go out, refinancings fail. So the real question going on in 2026 is not whether real estate breaks. It’s already, it already did. It already did. The real question is how much longer this phase lasts and what replaces it. My view is that 2025 into early 2026, um, represents the final phase of this unwind in the beginning of stabilization. I’m not predicting an immediate boom, not a return to 2021 by any means, but the end of obvious distress. So what’s happened already from 2022 to 2024? Multifamily and commercial real estate absorbed the fastest rate shock in modern history. Many of you lived through that. I lived through that. It’s painful. Debt costs doubled or tripled. Cap rates moved hundreds of basis points. You know, bridge debt structures broke, uh, refinancing assumptions collapsed. Now, a lot of the deals, I mean, I would say most of the deals, uh, uh, that, you know, kind of imploded, uh, shared the same DNA, you know, peaking price, uh, purchases, uh, during peak prices in 2021, early 2022. Uh, you know. Floating rate thin or negative cash flow based on, you know, the rates at the time. Maybe it was positive business plans that were really dependent on refi and rent growth. Um, those deals though, have largely already defaulted, recapitalize, or, you know, they’re being quietly handed back. And that matters because markets don’t keep breaking the same wave forever. If, if you’re seeing right now and if you’re in our investor club, you are. 30% discounts on a regular basis. Right? On a regular basis compared to the peak. Don’t assume that’s gonna last. That this is the key point I wanna make very clearly. If you’re looking at multifamily or commercial deals today that are trade trading at that 30% below where they were a couple years ago, you should not assume that window stays opening. Definitely because the level of discount there, uh, the level of discount exists because. Dried up liquidity, uh, because of that violent rate reset, uh, uncertainty. But here’s the thing, markets don’t stay frozen forever and as soon as pricing stabilizes, even at higher cap rates, which are going to be higher than they were, because you’re not gonna see interest rates down at zero, capital is gonna start to move again. And stabilization doesn’t require rates to go back to zero. It just requires some level of predictability. So here’s the sequence of what happens first, you know, the distress slows, uh, you see less and less defaults, and then slowly but surely cap rates stop expanding, right? That alone brings back buyers. Then as rates drift mo lower and volatility declines, lenders reenter selectively, debt becomes a billable again. It’s not cheap. It’s definitely usable and that brings more liquidity. When I say liquidity, in this context, I’m talking about just more deals getting done. And once liquidity returns, cap rates don’t stay wide forever. They compress, right? It’s competition. And again, when they compress, they’re not gonna go back to 2021 levels, but enough to meaningfully lift asset values from distressed pricing. This can happen faster than people expect, right? People underestimate the fact that there is an enormous amount of capital sitting on the sidelines right now in money market funds, short term treasuries, private capital, waiting for clarity. That capital isn’t, you know, permanent. The moment investors believe that rates of peak, that prices of stabilized downside risks is contained, that money starts to chase yield. When it does the transition from, nobody wants this, everyone wants exposure again, can happen surprisingly fast. In other words, I’m not saying I think this will happen in 26, but the shift from a market that is on sale, which I’ve described it as to a market that is starting to look a little frothy, can really be just a couple of years. And in that situation, I’d rather be a net seller, right? You wanna be accumulating. During this phase of for sale so that you can sell in froth. So what this means is that the market is, you know, uh, is not a market to wait for everything to feel perfect, because by the time it does, the obvious discounts are gonna be gone. And if you wait for perfect clarity, you’re gonna be competing, you competing with institutional capital, with large private funds and, and, and yield hungry money coming outta cash. The opportunity is not assuming distress lasts forever. It is. It’s in recognizing when the market is transitioning from forced selling, which is what is happening even now to price discovery. So ultimately, the prediction is this multifamily and commercial real estate, that that washout is completed in 2026 and the window created by distress really starts to close. Deep discounts don’t persist. Once market stabilized, which I think is what’s gonna happen, and then I think you’re gonna start to see a shift. You’re gonna start to see more deals, more liquidity, and that’s gonna return faster than people expect. In other words, this is gonna be the end of, you know, sort of this bargain basement, you know, panic pricing. And once real assets stabilize and liquidity returns, attention inevitably turns, uh, to the currency, those assets are priced in. Which brings us to the prediction number three. That dollar, okay, the dollar doesn’t collapse, but it does continue to erode. It slowly leak, right? Let’s talk about the dollar, ’cause you hear about this all the time, right? A nausea, you hear the, the weakening of the dollar. Um, this is one of those topics that where people tend to jump to extremes. You know, on one side you hear the dollar is about to collapse. On the other side you hear the dollar’s strong and everything’s fine. I think, um, the truth is somewhere in, in the middle. And my prediction for 2026 is simple. Um, again, the dollar doesn’t really explode. It doesn’t get replaced. It can just continues to erode slowly but surely. And that’s how reserve currencies actually behave when debt gets high. Right. So why no collapse, right? Because you got like people out there, uh, worried about the collapse of the US dollar. The US dollar is gonna remain dominant, not because it’s perfect, but because there’s no real alternative at scale. There just isn’t. Okay? There’s no other currency with markets as deep, as liquid and as widely used for trade debt and collateral. So, you know, reserve currencies, you know, you hear about the, the worry about us being the reserve currency. Well, reserve currencies don’t disappear overnight. They erode gradually, but they don’t disappear overnight. And that erosion shows up not as a crash, but again as persistent inflation, right? It’s rising, you know, real asset prices, which is again, where you wanna be, and a slow loss of purchasing power over time. Again, that brings us back to the whole issue of debt we were talking about, right? So in a highly indebted system, policymakers are not incentivized to aggressively defend the currency at all costs, right? So very high interest rates might strengthen the dollar in the short term, but they also make debt harder to service and financial stress worse, right? So instead of choosing strength or collapse. Um, you know, policy drifts towards tolerance, right? Inflation is allowed to run a little hotter than people expect, because again, it’s gonna erode that debt. The currency weakens slowly, therefore, rather than violently, right? Again, currency weakening. It’s that, it, it’s so entwined with this idea of inflation because debt becomes easier to manage in real terms. And one of the things I hear, and I’ve been sort of in these conversations back and forth with, um. At least one of you out there, uh, in, in emails is that, you know, I hear, uh, that, that, that there’s a, a serious problem for interest rates because of, you know, China, uh, selling US treasuries. And because of that you might get the collapse of the dollar. In fact, in this conversation, it was not only about China, but also Europe. Which, you know, I hadn’t actually heard anybody mention that before, but I guess that’s out there in the ecosystem and some of the newsletters. Now, all that sounds scary, but it really misunderstands how the system actually works. What exactly happens when someone or a country sells treasuries? Well, they don’t dis, they, they don’t just destroy the dollars. What they’re doing is they just swap $1 asset for another, right? The dollars don’t even lead the system. They change hands. So this idea of China selling off all it t trade, well, China’s been, uh, reducing its treasury holdings for years and the dollar hasn’t collapsed. The market absorbed it because treasuries are the deepest, most liquid market in the world. And then this idea of Europe, of of Europe actually dumping treasuries because, you know, they’re not happy with Donald Trump and what he’s doing in Ukraine and all that, that would be an absolute nightmare for, for Europe. That would hurt their own economy. That’s the last thing that an indebted government wants. So foreign selling, yeah, sure it’s gonna move yields, but it, it’s not gonna implode the dollar. But the reality of the, uh, erosion of the dollar is real. I don’t think anybody questions that anymore, and I think that is another reason that you need to be buying. Real assets. You need to be buying equity. You need to be on the side of the investor class. Okay? That’s, that’s how you combat all of this. So the real takeaway here ultimately is that, you know, it isn’t, uh, to abandon the dollar, right? It isn’t. It’s, it’s just to stop pretending that holding cash is neutral. It’s not, it, most of your wall suits and assets that, that can’t adjust. You know, they can’t grow as, you know, as, as asset prices grow, then you’re making a bet on currency stability that literally no one believes is, is going to be the base standard anymore. Everybody knows, every economist, every country, every everywhere knows that these currencies are eroding. You don’t freak out about the dollar, but don’t, don’t, don’t be like heavily in dollars. Start getting into the markets. Alright, well, you know, I’m talking a lot about esoteric macro stuff, but let’s kind of get into some stuff that you might think is fun, more fun maybe. Okay. You, a lot of you are into Bitcoin. Well, I think that, you know, Bitcoin is gonna continue to mature. And the next look, leg up looks like, you know, because of more adoption, not because of hype, which isn’t maybe not as, as, as fast and violent, but it’s, it’s, it’s a lot more predictable. For those of you who are still unfortunately listening to the likes of Peter Schiff about Bitcoin, you gotta stop doing that because Bitcoin is not tulips. Right? A lot of people still talk about it like it’s a fad that could just vanish. We’re long past that phase. Bitcoin is, is, is a $2 trillion asset and in the history of the world, there has never been a $2 trillion asset that went to zero. Is it volatile? Yeah, it is. It can absolutely continue to be wildly volatile, but you’re not going to zero. And my prediction is not overly crazy. It’s just that. Bitcoin is going to continue to increase in price, but it’s not become, not because of speculative, uh, you know, because it’s a speculative trade anymore, right? I think it’s because of adoption. Uh, adoption is going to become the real meaningful driver of market capitalization. So what do I mean by that? It just means more people are seeing it as a real asset, and it has to become, when it becomes a real asset class, everyone has to have some of it. Every major institution has to have some of it because it’s an its own asset class. And when they do that, it just drives up the entire market capitalization of that asset. And when you have an asset that has a finite amount, which in the case of Bitcoin, there will never be more than 21 million Bitcoin. You have constant adoption, constant slow, but persistent growth in market capitalization, the asset has to become more expensive. Now, what do I mean by this adoption? Well, places that you would never think in a million years, a few years ago, that that would be buying Bitcoin or you know, ETFs, B to Bitcoin ETFs are doing. So Harvard. Harvard is a great example. Because it’s not, it’s not crypto influencer, right? It’s actually one of the most conservative, brand sensitive pools of capital in the world. But their endowment management, uh, disclosed roughly 443, uh, million dollars in its position in BlackRock, uh, BlackRock, iShares Bitcoin, Bitcoin Trust, which is ibi for those of you who, who, uh, don’t know, that’s how you can just go to your New York Stock Exchange and, and buy. Bitcoin ETFs with ibit. Now, whether you love this whole Bitcoin idea or hate it or whatever, that’s a signal that is increasingly treated like a portfolio asset. It’s not a fringe experiment, and it’s not only universities. Uh, institutional comfort is it’s just there, right? Um, custody, uh, custody regulated vehicles, positioning, size, risk controls, those kinds of things are all become part of the Bitcoin uh, environment. Many countries are already holding meaningful amounts of Bitcoin. Uh, even the US has, there’s a, there is a formalized Bitcoin reserve. Now we aren’t actively buying it, but here’s an interesting thing with Bitcoin, you can, when it is, uh, the way that the US is accumulating Bitcoin is through seizures. Alright? Bad guy gets caught. His boats, his house and his Bitcoin get, uh, confiscated. So the US will sell the house, they will sell the gold, they will sell the boats, but they will keep the Bitcoin. What does that tell you? You know? And, and there’s a lot of nations that are actually openly holding and, and buying Bitcoin. I mentioned the US China. This always seems to be, uh, you know, anti Bitcoin. Well, they actually own quite a bit the UK, Ukraine, Bhutan, El Salvador. Bottom line is there’s a big change in narrative, right? That this is a real asset. So this is something that, you know, even if it’s 1% of a major, uh, institution’s assets or less than that, or whatever, it’s part of it. And that adoption alone can move prices from, from here. And that’s what I think a lot of people miss because they’re like, well, you already had a big move and you know, instead a hundred, it’s 80 or 90 or a hundred, whatever. It’s, it’s not going much better, bigger than that. Well, Bitcoin is, is actually really small relative to global pools of capital. So at this stage, adoption alone. Not even the crazy mania of the past can make a non-trivial increase in market capitalization and therefore a mark, you know, a non-trivial increase in the actual price of Bitcoin. All it’s gonna take, and you’re gonna see this, you’re gonna see more endowments, you’re gonna see more sovereign wealth pool, pensions, mod model portfolios, all they guys daisy side, when you know, even with a small allocation. It doesn’t take too much to overwhelm the available float because Bitcoin is scarce and a lot of it’s held tightly. So as far as Bitcoin goes, what do I think is gonna happen? I believe all time highs are gonna get challenged. They’re gonna get broken again in 2026, not because again, everyone’s suddenly becoming a crypto maximas, but because adoptions could just gonna continue to grow. The wild card, I should say, is that the US moving from, we hold. What we seized in terms of Bitcoin to actively acquiring reserves could be enormous catalyst. And there is a lot of talk about this right now. Um, if the market ever believes that the US is a consistent buyer, even in a constrained budget neutral way, that changes the psychology fast. And in that scenario, I think 200,000 plus, uh, $200,000 plus Bitcoin by the end of 2026 becomes very plausible. Zooming out. I’ve said this before, you may think I’m crazy, but again, because of adoption, I think that Bitcoin is at a million dollars five to seven years from now. So what does that mean for you? Well, I mean, I think at the end of the day, if you don’t own some, you might want to, I’m not gonna give you financial advice, but again, just like Harvard’s doing it, you know, major, major endowments are saying, well. You know, maybe we’ll just buy, like, you know, 2% of that, 2% of our, our, uh, endowment will be made of something like that, right? Uh, you know, it’s just even a very small amount, but exposure to it makes a lot of sense. So I think that is something to highly consider if you are still on zero when it comes to Bitcoin. All right, now here’s my last, uh, prediction. You may have heard me talking about this before as well, that AI becomes a deflationary force that policy makers finally wake up to. And I think this is actually one of the most important and misunderstood economic developments, um, that is currently already out there. But I think it’s, it’s gonna be really recognized. By the end of 2026. Okay. Artificial intelligence is gonna stop being just a tech story, and it’s gonna become a macroeconomic story. I think that by the end of 2026, artificial intelligence is clearly, uh, you know, it’s clearly, um, going to be boosting corporate earnings while beginning to materially reshape the labor force. Um, and what’s gonna happen is that central banks and policymakers are gonna start treating it. Is a genuinely deflationary force over the next several years, and they’re gonna try to have to figure out what to do about it. And again, going back to our earlier conversation, because deflation is really a real problem for a country with an enormous amount of debt. So let’s get a little bit into the whole deflationary uh, conversation. So artificial intelligence at its core is a productivity machine, right? It allows companies to produce more. Without, with fewer inputs, fewer hours, fewer people, fewer stakes and productivity always shows up in profits before it shows up in everyday life. Right now, lower cost per transaction, faster execution, fewer people doing the same amount of work, widening margins without price increases. That’s the tell. That’s when profits rise without raising prices, something deflationary is happening underneath the surface. The biggest impact there is the labor market, right? It’s gonna be impossible to ignore. And this is where the conversation really shifts because artificial intelligence doesn’t need to eliminate jobs outright to matter. It only needs to reduce the number of people required to do it, right? So you’re thinking the labor markets, you’re gonna see a lot of this. You’re gonna see more slowing in hiring. Um, even while productivity expectations rise, and I think by late 2026, the public conversation is gonna change from will artificial intelligence affects jobs someday to why aren’t companies hiring the way they used to? And of course, that’s when people are gonna start paying attention and they’re gonna notice it’s deflationary because it’s going to be because artificial intelligence is gonna push down the cost. Of services, administration, customer support, research, and eventually decision making itself. That’s why it’s, it’s deflationary, it’s structural, right? Just think of all those things you can do for so much cheaper. That is what deflation is, right? And again, we mentioned before deflation is not something central banks are comfortable with because of debt and because debt heavy systems rely on nominal growth. Deflation makes debt heavier in real terms as opposed to what we said before, which is that inflation actually erodes debt. And that is a, a very, very challenging problem. And by 2026, I think you’re gonna hear a lot about this, you know, policy problem that we have. Which is innovation versus, you know, deflation. You make a lot of money, but are still worried about retirement. Maybe you didn’t start earning until your thirties. Now you’re trying to catch up. Meanwhile, you’ve got a mortgage, a private school to pay for, and you feel like you’re getting further and further behind. Now, good news, if you need to catch up on retirement, check out a program put out by some of the oldest and most prestigious life insurance companies in the world. It’s called Wealth Accelerator, and it can help you amplify your returns quickly, protect your money from creditors, and provide finance. Financial protection to your family if something happens to you. The concepts here are used by some of the wealthiest families in the world and there’s no reason why they can’t be used by you. Check it out for yourself by going to wealthformulabanking.com. Alright, well, so that’s basically it for my, uh, predictions. And I know I’ve kind of. Off on many different tangents, so hopefully it’s useful to you at least to start thinking and doing some of your own research. Bottom line is this, I mean, as, as a investor, what can you do? I think the big story here is understanding that, um, you need to be out of the dollar and into the investor class because that that widening gap between those who have. Who own things, who own assets, and those who do not is gonna continue to widen. And so, you know, my best, uh, won’t call it advice, but my own belief is that it is a, it is a very good time to look around and look for assets that are underpriced because I think everything is going to expand and it’s gonna ex expand. Uh, and you don’t wanna be caught, you know, on the, uh, dollar side of that equation. So. That’s it for me this week on Wealth Formula Podcast. Happy New Year. I’ll see you next week. If you wanna learn more, you can now get free access to our in-depth personal finance course featuring industry leaders like Tom Wheel Wright and Ken McElroy. Visit wealthformularoadmap.com.

Bernstein says Bitcoin and the broader crypto market have likely “bottomed,” keeping big upside targets in play, while traditional finance keeps leaning in with Morgan Stanley filing for new Bitcoin and Solana ETFs as spot Bitcoin ETF inflows rebound. We'll also cover why 2026 is shifting from “writing crypto rules” to actually making them work—across accounting, stablecoins, and tax reporting—as the industry moves from hype to hard compliance.

⬜ Welcome to Palvatar Market Recap, your go-to daily briefing on the latest market movements, global macro shifts, and crypto trends—powered by Raoul Pal's AI avatar, Palvatar. ⬜ In today's update, Palvatar covers a calm start for global equities following a strong US rally that pushed the Dow to fresh highs, while weak ISM manufacturing data kept pressure on the dollar ahead of the jobs report. European stocks extended gains, supported by resilient PMI data. Commodities rallied, with copper hitting records, and crypto stayed strong as Bitcoin ETFs attracted major inflows amid rising competition.

The fuse has been lit!

Bitcoin surges toward $100K as Venezuela headlines and U.S. action/capture news sparked a shock-driven rally and short squeeze, while traders watched key levels for a continuation. We also covered why the move may have been reinforced by returning spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, alongside a broader “risk-off” bid that pushed gold and silver higher. From there we zoomed out to the macro/policy setup—Fed rate-cut debate, Tom Lee's warning of a 10–15% pullback early in 2026—and the regulatory backdrop, including Lummis retiring, Arizona's crypto tax push, and the growing “Bitcoin-only” narrative.

Gold's outlook for 2026 with SchiffGold Founder Peter Schiff. Euro Pacific Asset Management Chief Economist Peter Schiff has been named to CoinDesk's 50 Most Influential list. In this interview with CoinDesk's Jennifer Sanasie, the SchiffGold founder reflects on gold's record highs, and shares his skepticism of bitcoin, asserting that the cryptocurrency lacks the properties of sound money. He also predicts the collapse of Strategy's business model and unveils his own pivot to the blockchain: a new tokenized gold product. - For more, check out CoinDesk's 50 Most Influential article on Peter Schiff: https://www.coindesk.com/business/2025/12/16/most-influential-peter-schiff.  To see the full list, visit: https://www.coindesk.com/most-influential-2025. - Timecodes:  01:14 - Peter Schiff: The Unlikely Bitcoin Influencer 04:44 - Key Moments that Drove Gold to a Record High 06:23 - Where is Gold Headed in 2026?  10:33 - Why Scarcity Doesn't Make Bitcoin Sound Money 13:23 - The Myth of Government & Central Bank BTC Adoption 15:29 - Peter Warns About the Vulnerability of Bitcoin ETFs and Predicts Strategy's Collapse 18:56 - Peter Continues to Challenge Michael Saylor to a Debate 20:18 - The Tokenized Gold Future 23:24 - Peter's Reaction to CZ's Comments on Tokenized Gold - Break the cycle of exploitation. Break down the barriers to truth. Break into the next generation of privacy. Break Free. Free to scroll without being monetized. Free from censorship. Freedom without fear. We deserve more when it comes to privacy. Experience the next generation of blockchain that is private and inclusive by design. Break free with Midnight, visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠midnight.network/break-free⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ - This episode was hosted by Jennifer Sanasie.

What if one tiny visual tweak could send your app viral?

Gold's outlook for 2026 with SchiffGold Founder Peter Schiff. Euro Pacific Asset Management Chief Economist Peter Schiff has been named to CoinDesk's 50 Most Influential list. In this interview with CoinDesk's Jennifer Sanasie, the SchiffGold founder reflects on gold's record highs, and shares his skepticism of bitcoin, asserting that the cryptocurrency lacks the properties of sound money. He also predicts the collapse of Strategy's business model and unveils his own pivot to the blockchain: a new tokenized gold product. - For more, check out CoinDesk's 50 Most Influential article on Peter Schiff: https://www.coindesk.com/business/2025/12/16/most-influential-peter-schiff.  To see the full list, visit: https://www.coindesk.com/most-influential-2025. - Timecodes:  01:14 - Peter Schiff: The Unlikely Bitcoin Influencer 04:44 - Key Moments that Drove Gold to a Record High 06:23 - Where is Gold Headed in 2026?  10:33 - Why Scarcity Doesn't Make Bitcoin Sound Money 13:23 - The Myth of Government & Central Bank BTC Adoption 15:29 - Peter Warns About the Vulnerability of Bitcoin ETFs and Predicts Strategy's Collapse 18:56 - Peter Continues to Challenge Michael Saylor to a Debate 20:18 - The Tokenized Gold Future 23:24 - Peter's Reaction to CZ's Comments on Tokenized Gold - Break the cycle of exploitation. Break down the barriers to truth. Break into the next generation of privacy. Break Free. Free to scroll without being monetized. Free from censorship. Freedom without fear. We deserve more when it comes to privacy. Experience the next generation of blockchain that is private and inclusive by design. Break free with Midnight, visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠midnight.network/break-free⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ - This episode was hosted by Jennifer Sanasie.

In this episode of the Crypto 101 Podcast, CoinShares CEO Jean-Marie Mognetti joins Bryce to unpack how institutional adoption of crypto is unfolding in real time. He explains why Bitcoin ETFs, Ethereum exposure, and digital asset treasury companies are driving growth—but also creating short-term technical pressure through trade unwinds. Mognetti emphasizes that institutions are still in the earliest learning phase, while retail has led adoption, flipping the traditional investment pyramid. He closes by stressing long-term conviction, disciplined portfolio construction, and the importance of not confusing temporary market mechanics with Bitcoin's broader macro trajectory.Check out Gemini Exchange: https://gemini.comCheck out TruDiagnostic and use my code CRYPTO101 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comCheck out Quince: https://quince.com/CRYPTO101Get immediate access to my entire crypto portfolio for just $1.00 today! Get your FREE copy of "Crypto Revolution" and start making big profits from buying, selling,Get immediate access to my entire crypto portfolio.. just $1.00 today! Go here to get access: https://www.crypto101insider.com/cryptnation-directm6pypcy1?utm_source=Internal&utm_medium=YouTube&utm_content=Podcast&utm_term=20250916Get your FREE copy of "Crypto Revolution: Your Guide To The Future of Money". In this book, I reveal how to make (and keep) a fortune during this crypto bull run! http://www.cryptorevolution.com/free?utm_source=Internal&utm_medium=YouTube&utm_content=Podcast&utm_term=20250916Chapters00:00 — Intro01:10 — CoinShares' origin, early Bitcoin discovery, and hedge-fund roots.04:08 — Public vs. private blockchains and why institutions ultimately embraced open chains like Ethereum.06:44 — CoinShares' product suite: ETFs, listed funds, capital markets, and future tokenization.09:00 — Altcoin ETF explosion creates confusion for advisors and investors.11:50 — Digital asset treasury companies explained and why MicroStrategy is uniquely positioned.17:56 — Bitcoin's weakness framed as a technical unwind, not a broken macro thesis.21:42 — Altcoins, benchmarking against Bitcoin, and where real crypto utility is emerging.MERCH STOREhttps://cryptorevolutionmerch.com/Subscribe to YouTube for Exclusive Content:https://www.youtube.com/@crypto101podcast?sub_confirmation=1Follow us on social media for leading-edge crypto updates and trade alerts:https://twitter.com/Crypto101Podhttps://instagram.com/crypto_101Guess Linkhttps://coinshares.com/*This is NOT financial, tax, or legal advice*Boardwalk Flock LLC. All Rights Reserved  ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬Fog by DIZARO https://soundcloud.com/dizarofrCreative Commons — Attribution-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported — CC BY-ND 3.0 Free Download / Stream: http://bit.ly/Fog-DIZAROMusic promoted by Audio Library https://youtu.be/lAfbjt_rmE8▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬Our Sponsors:* Check out Gemini Exchange: https://gemini.com* Check out Quince: https://quince.com/CRYPTO101* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code CRYPTO101 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

On episode 203 of Ask The Compound, Ben Carlson and Duncan Hill are joined by Eric Balchunas to discuss owning Bitcoin ETF vs Bitcoin Itself, can Crypto crashes hurt the stock market, are cheap gas prices a recession signal, is a 20–30% market drop actually an opportunity, how high earners can maximize tax-advantaged retirement savings and more. Submit your Ask The Compound questions to askthecompoundshow@gmail.com! This episode is sponsored by Rocket Money. Cancel your unwanted subscriptions and reach your financial goals faster with Rocket Money. Go to https://pscrb.fm/rss/p/rocketmoney.com/atc today. Subscribe to The Compound Newsletter for all the latest Compound content, live event announcements, find out who the next TCAF guest is, get updates on the latest merch drops, and more! ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.thecompoundnews.com/subscribe⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

CoinShares CEO Jean-Marie Mognetti joins the Mining Pod to break down the underdiscussed ways that bitcoin ETFs have changed the crypto market. Subscribe to the Blockspace newsletter! Welcome back to The Mining Pod! Today, Jean-Marie Mognetti, CEO of CoinShares, joins us to talk about the financialization of Bitcoin following the ETF launches. We dive into how derivatives and call overwriting could be compressing volatility and changing price action. He also breaks down the cultural and regulatory differences stifling European adoption compared to the US, and why Bitcoin's ultimate success might be a "bittersweet" signal of global sovereign debt failure. Subscribe to the newsletter! https://newsletter.blockspacemedia.com **Notes:** Notes: * EU ETF market 10x smaller than US * Bitcoin futures in backwardation * Spot liquidity is currently thin * Options market suppressing volatility * US dominates global crypto trading * Sovereign debt cycles are failing Timestamps: 00:00 Start 02:51 Current BTC volatility 07:29 Options market wagging the dog 09:33 Financialization of Bitcoin 14:23 Who's using call options? 15:52 Market changes due to ETF? 18:03 JPM 1.5x levered ETF 18:53 European ETF market 25:31 European ETF flows 29:24 What is holding institutions back? 31:14 Are DATs dead?

Subscribe to the Blockspace newsletter! Welcome back to The Mining Pod! Today, Jean-Marie Mognetti, CEO of CoinShares, joins us to talk about the financialization of Bitcoin following the ETF launches. We dive into how derivatives and call overwriting could be compressing volatility and changing price action. He also breaks down the cultural and regulatory differences stifling European adoption compared to the US, and why Bitcoin's ultimate success might be a "bittersweet" signal of global sovereign debt failure. Subscribe to the newsletter! https://newsletter.blockspacemedia.com **Notes:** Notes: * EU ETF market 10x smaller than US * Bitcoin futures in contango * Spot liquidity is currently thin * Options market suppressing volatility * US dominates global crypto trading * Sovereign debt cycles are failing Timestamps: 00:00 Start 02:51 Current BTC volatility 07:29 Options market wagging the dog 09:33 Financialization of Bitcoin 14:23 Who's using call options? 15:52 Market changes due to ETF? 18:03 JPM 1.5x levered ETF 18:53 European ETF market 25:31 European ETF flows 29:24 What is holding institutions back? 31:14 Are DATs dead?

This is the dumb money playing field and they built it on purpose. In this episode, I break down how Wall Street, brokers, and these new 5x leveraged ETFs are setting retail investors up to get obliterated, while the wealthy quietly print money with assets, loans, and tax games most people never get taught. We talk about how 23-hour trading, 5x leveraged stock & crypto ETFs, and casino-style apps are designed to keep you glued to the screen, over-leveraged, and emotionally cooked — while the people who built the game barely touch this stuff. If you trade AMD, Nvidia, Tesla, Coinbase, Bitcoin, ETH, Solana, XRP, Amazon, Google, MSTR, Palantir… this episode is a must-watch before you ever touch a leveraged ETF.Join our Exclusive Patreon!!! Creating Financial Empowerment for those who've never had it.

The Bank of Japan raised its short-term policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, the highest in nearly 30 years. Despite the rate hike, the Japanese yen fell against the U.S. dollar, while bitcoin saw a slight increase in value.~This episode is sponsored by Mevolaxy & BTCC~Boost your crypto with Mevolaxy ➜ https://bit.ly/MevolaxyBTCC 10% Deposit Bonus! ➜ https://bit.ly/PBNBTCC00:00 Intro00:10 Sponsor: BTCC00:50 As expected02:00 End of the road for the Yen?02:30 More rate hikes coming through mid 202703:30 Recession levels05:00 Consumer Sentiment record low06:00 FOX trying to twist the numbers07:30 Fear and greed08:30 Bitcoin ETFs vs Wall Street09:45 Contrarian view point11:00 Institutional inflection point12:00 Maybe Santa rally still in play?14:10 Sponsor: Mevaloxy16:20 Bitcoin vs S&P 500 chart17:20 Tariffs in trouble17:50 Fed chair announcement soon18:30 Trump announces patriot games19:15 Outro#Crypto #Bitcoin #ethereum~Japan Rate Hike Fears Over?

Bitcoin faces one of its most critical moments yet. The crypto market is reeling as Bitcoin ETFs sink underwater, creating a $100 billion liquidity crunch not seen since FTX. Analysts warn that many new crypto ETFs could face liquidation just months after launch, even as the SEC opens the door to hundreds more under new listing rules. Meanwhile, Grayscale predicts 2026 will mark the dawn of crypto's institutional era & DTCC begins tokenizing U.S. Treasuries.

Bitcoin is headed for its fourth annual decline in its history, falling as much as 5.2% and is now about 7% lower for the year, with volumes low and investors bailing on Bitcoin ETFs. MARA Chairman & CEO Fred Thiel, however, expects a great performance from Bitcoin over the course of the coming year despite a 'healthy retracement' in the marketplace. He joined Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec on 'Bloomberg Businessweek Daily' to break it down.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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⚪ In this special episode, Raoul Pal has decided to unlock the most recent Exponentialist Fireside Chat for you to enjoy. Each month, Raoul and David Mattin talk through the latest developments in Exponential Age technology before taking questions from the live audience. You can join the Exponentialist here: realvision.com/thefuture. ⚪ X: @DMattin

Today we're breaking down why everyone got their 2025 crypto predictions wrong despite Bitcoin ETFs, institutional adoption, and all-time highs earlier in the year. We run through what top analysts are saying about the current state of crypto, as well as discussing our honest take on whether this cycle is over or just getting started. You'll hear:  00:00 - 2025: The year that disappointed everyone 03:02 - October 10th flash crash was just the beginning 04:40 - Fear & greed at 24: Worse than FTX collapse 08:24 - Bitcoin flipping gold: CZ's bold prediction and the heated debate 11:12 - Bitcoin, gold, or S&P 500 over 50 years? 12:22 - Failed predictions: JP Morgan $170K, BlackRock $700K, Cathie Wood $2M 19:43 - Why you should expect more chop until clarity comes 24:30 - Trump's Fed Chair pick and what it means … and much more! Want to see what we're looking at every episode? Watch the YouTube version of the podcast here. Ready to start? Get $10 of FREE Bitcoin on Swyftx when you sign up and verify:  https://trade.swyftx.com.au/register/?promoRef=tappingintocrypto10btc  To get the latest updates, hit subscribe and follow us over on the gram @tappingintocrypto or X @tappingintocrypto If you can't wait to learn more, check out these blogs from our friends over at Swyftx. The Tapping into Crypto podcast is for entertainment purposes only and the opinions on this podcast belong to individuals and are not affiliated with any companies mentioned. Any advice is general in nature and does not take into account your personal situation, if you're looking to get advice, please seek out a licensed financial advisor.

Greg Xethalis, General Counsel at Multicoin Capital joins the podcast to discuss the history of ETFs, what we can learn from the first Bitcoin ETF, and the interplay between the CLARITY Act and RFIA.This episode also covers the challenges of disclosure in decentralized systems, and why principles-based regulation is essential for the next phase of crypto innovation.Timestamps➡️ 1:27 — The origin story of ETFs➡️ 3:00 — SEC dynamics behind the first ETF➡️ 7:45 — The first Bitcoin ETF ➡️ 15:34 — Market structure: CLARITY Act + RFIA as complementary frameworks➡️ 20:52 — Disclosure: a challenge in crypto regulation➡️ 33:34 — Who should be responsible for token disclosures long-term?Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by the Decentralization Research Center (DRC), a nonprofit think tank advocating for decentralization in emerging technologies. Learn more at thedrcenter.org.Resources:

The macro landscape is shifting fast: the Federal Reserve has officially ended quantitative tightening after draining trillions from global liquidity, then immediately pumped $13.5 billion into markets through an overnight repo — a clear sign of mounting stress. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is reacting sharply as analysts warn that Saylor's leveraged playbook may be backfiring, even as crypto fund inflows rise across Bitcoin, XRP, and Chainlink. Tether faces renewed balance-sheet controversy, and Vanguard , long opposed to crypto is now allowing Bitcoin ETFs on its platform for the first time.

Texas just became the first US state to purchase and hold Bitcoin, and it did so during a market downturn, while many institutions and state treasuries were selling or backing away from crypto entirely. In this episode of Byte-Sized Insight, we break down alongside Lee Bratcher, founder and president of the Texas Blockchain Council, why Texas made a $5 million Bitcoin ETF purchase (with another $5 million earmarked for self-custodied BTC), how a years-long political history set the stage and what this move means for US crypto policy.Is Texas making a bold strategic play  or taking on unnecessary risk? And could this be the spark that reignites the conversation around Bitcoin in public finance? (00:08) Texas becomes the first U.S. state to purchase and hold Bitcoin(00:33) Why Texas buying Bitcoin during a downturn matters(02:28) Texas's long-term Bitcoin thesis and the significance of the timing(03:38) Greg Abbott's early Bitcoin advocacy: 11 years before Texas's buy(04:54) Abbott on Texas becoming a global hub for Bitcoin and blockchain(08:05) Why Texas is treating Bitcoin as a multi-decade strategic asset(09:34) How Texas's Bitcoin purchase could influence other U.S. states and policymakers(11:13) Texas's energy, finance, and demographic advantages in Bitcoin adoption(12:55) Closing insight: Texas and Bitcoin as long-term partners beyond market cyclesThis episode was hosted and produced by Savannah Fortis, @savannah_fortis.Follow Cointelegraph on X @Cointelegraph.Check out Cointelegraph at cointelegraph.com.If you like what you heard, rate us and leave a review!The views, thoughts and opinions expressed in this podcast are its participants alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph. This podcast (and any related content) is for entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, nor should it be taken as such. Everyone must do their own research and make their own decisions. The podcast's participants may or may not own any of the assets mentioned.

Join Alex Tapscott and Andrew Young as they decode the world of crypto with special guest Federico Brokate, Global Head of Business Development at 21Shares. Listen in as they discuss the rapid rise of Bitcoin ETFs from IBIT's record-breaking launch to today's shifting mix of retail and institutional holders, the tension and interplay between DATs and ETFs as vehicles for crypto exposure, how new SEC generic listing standards have opened the door to products on Solana, Ethereum, XRP, Doge and even staked assets, the case for index and basket strategies such as top-10 ex-Bitcoin products and future active and factor-based crypto ETFs, why this cycle's "Bitcoin up, everything else lagging" dynamic is reshaping how investors think about diversification and power-law outcomes in digital assets, and how jurisdictions from Brazil and South Korea to Saudi Arabia are building regulated ETF frameworks that could broaden global access to the asset class.

The Federal Reserve officially ended quantitative tightening and immediately pumped $13.5 billion into markets through an overnight repo—clear signs of growing stress in the system. At the same time, new controversy is hitting Tether's balance sheet, raising fresh questions about stablecoin stability. And in a surprise move, Vanguard is preparing to launch its own Bitcoin ETF, marking a major shift from one of Wall Street's most anti-crypto giants. With liquidity returning, institutions pivoting, and trust in key crypto players under pressure, today's developments could reshape the entire market.

Bitcoin's sudden flash crash has rattled markets as global liquidity tightens and Japan's bond market sends crisis-level warning signals. With 20-year JGB yields spiking toward historic stress points, the yen carry trade is rapidly unwinding and dragging risk assets with it. Gold is surging to six-week highs, Fed rate-cut odds are accelerating, and Trump's move to appoint a new Fed chair adds major uncertainty to the monetary outlook. At the same time, BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF has become its fastest-growing product of 2025, even as Tether faces renewed balance-sheet scrutiny and confidence across crypto wavers.

Crypto News: JPMorgan Chase has introduced a structured note linked to BlackRock's IBIT that matches BTC's four-year halving cycle. US Bank is testing custom stablecoin issuance on the Stellar XLM Blockchain.Brought to you by

In this episode with Robbie Mitchnick, Global Head of Digital Assets for BlackRock, we discuss: How BlackRock's $IBIT spot Bitcoin ETF became a historic success (and smashed gold's ETF record) Whether spot Bitcoin ETF flows are really being driven by retail investors or institutions Bitcoin has libertarian/cypherpunk roots: should we be concerned that large institutions are now involved The biggest misconceptions about Bitcoin Robbie hears from investors and skeptics How much Bitcoin BlackRock recommends in a diversified portfolio Learn more: https://www.blackrock.com/sg/en/insights  ---- It's officially out! Order Natalie's new book "Bitcoin is For Everyone," a simple introduction to our financial system and the best performing asset:  https://amzn.to/3WzFzfU ---- Coin Stories is powered by Gemini. Invest as you spend with the Gemini Credit Card. Sign up today to earn a $200 intro Bitcoin bonus. The Gemini Credit Card is issued by WebBank. See website for rates & fees. Learn more at https://www.gemini.com/natalie  ---- Coin Stories is powered by Bitwise. Bitwise has over $10B in client assets, 32 investment products, and a team of 100+ employees across the U.S. and Europe, all solely focused on Bitcoin and digital assets since 2017. Learn more at https://www.bitwiseinvestments.com  ---- Ledn is the global leader in Bitcoin-backed loans, issuing over $9 billion in loans since 2018, and they were the first to offer proof of reserves. With Ledn, you get custody loans, no credit checks, no monthly payments, and more. Get .25% off your first loan, learn more at https://www.Ledn.io/natalie  ---- Natalie's Bitcoin Product and Event Links: For easy, low-cost, instant Bitcoin payments, I use Speed Lightning Wallet. Play Bitcoin trivia and win up to 1 million sats! Download and use promo code COINSTORIES10 for 5,000 free sats: https://www.speed.app/coinstories  Block's Bitkey Cold Storage Wallet was named to TIME's prestigious Best Inventions of 2024 in the category of Privacy & Security. Get 20% off using code STORIES at https://bitkey.world   Master your Bitcoin self-custody with 1-on-1 help and gain peace of mind with the help of The Bitcoin Way: https://www.thebitcoinway.com/natalie  Genius Group (NYSE: $GNS) is building a 10,000 BTC treasury and educating the world through the Genius Academy. Check out *free* courses from Saifedean Ammous and myself at https://www.geniusgroup.ai Earn passive Bitcoin income with industry-leading uptime, renewable energy, ideal climate, expert support, and one month of free hosting when you join Abundant Mines at https://www.abundantmines.com/natalie  Bitcoin 2026 will be here before you know it. Get 10% off Early Bird passes using the code HODL: https://tickets.b.tc/event/bitcoin-2026?promoCodeTask=apply&promoCodeInput=  Protect yourself from SIM Swaps that can hack your accounts and steal your Bitcoin. Join America's most secure mobile service, trusted by CEOs, VIPs and top corporations: https://www.efani.com/natalie   Ditch your fiat health insurance like I did four years ago! Join me at CrowdHealth: www.joincrowdhealth.com/natalie  ---- This podcast is for educational purposes and should not be construed as official investment advice. ---- VALUE FOR VALUE — SUPPORT NATALIE'S SHOWS Strike ID https://strike.me/coinstoriesnat/ Cash App $CoinStories #money #Bitcoin #investing

U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs saw $2.59 billion of outflows in November. BlackRock's spot bitcoin ETF, IBIT, has registered record outflows of $1.26 billion this month. This outflow is part of a broader trend affecting the market, with 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs collectively experiencing withdrawals totaling $2.59 billion. CoinDesk's Jennifer Sanasie hosts "CoinDesk Daily." - Break the cycle of exploitation. Break down the barriers to truth. Break into the next generation of privacy. Break Free. Free to scroll without being monetized. Free from censorship. Freedom without fear. We deserve more when it comes to privacy. Experience the next generation of blockchain that is private and inclusive by design. Break free with Midnight, visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠midnight.network/break-free⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ - Need liquidity without selling your crypto? Take out a ⁠Figure Crypto-Backed Loan⁠, allowing you to borrow against your BTC, ETH, or SOL with 12-month terms and no prepayment penalties. They have the lowest rates in the industry at 8.91%, allowing you to access instant cash or buy more Bitcoin without triggering a tax event. Unlock your crypto's potential today at Figure! ⁠https://figuremarkets.co/coindesk⁠ - Genius Group has partnered with CoinDesk for Bitcoin Treasury Month, launching the Genius x CoinDesk Quest. Participants can join the Bitcoin Academy, complete free microcourses from experts like Natalie Brunell and Saifedean Ammous, and enter to win 1,000,000 GEMs (worth 1 BTC) promoting bitcoin education and adoption.Learn more at:  ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠geniusgroup.ai/coindesk-bitcoin-treasury-month/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ - This episode was hosted by Jennifer Sanasie. “CoinDesk Daily” is produced by Jennifer Sanasie and edited by Victor Chen.

Our Research and Investment Management analysts Michael Cyprys and Denny Galindo discuss how and why cryptocurrencies are transitioning from niche speculation to portfolio staples. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Cyprys: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Cyprys, Head of U.S. Brokers, Asset Managers and Exchanges for Morgan Stanley Research.Denny Galindo: And I'm Denny Galindo, Investment Strategist for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.Michael Cyprys: Today we break down the forces making crypto more accessible and what this shift means for investors everywhere.It's Tuesday, November 11th at 10am in New York.We've seen cryptocurrencies move from the fringes of finance to being considered a legitimate part of mainstream asset allocation. Financial platforms, especially those serving institutional clients, are starting to integrate crypto more than ever.Denny, you've written extensively about the crypto market for some time now among your many jobs here at Morgan Stanley. So, from your perspective in wealth management, what are you hearing from retail clients about their growing interest in crypto?Denny Galindo: Yeah, we actually started writing about crypto back in 2017. We had our first explainer deck, and we started writing extensive educational reports in 2021. So, we've covered it for a while.Advisors who dabble in crypto typically had this one client. He asked a lot of questions about when they could do more. We also had some clients who were curious, maybe their neighbor made a lot of money, bought a new boat and they were like wondering, you know, what is this Bitcoin thing?Now, this year we've seen a sea change. I think it was the election really started it; the Genius Act, and some of the legislation also kind of added to it. Almost all this interest is really on Bitcoin only, although we also have gotten a decent amount of interest about stablecoins and how those might impact things. But it's really just the beginning and I think it's an area that's; it's not going to go away.Mike, on the institutional side, what trends are you seeing among asset managers and brokers in terms of crypto adoption integration?Michael Cyprys: So, we've seen a big move into the ETF space as large money managers make crypto easier to access for both retail and institutional investors. Now this comes on the back of the SEC approving the first spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs back in 2024. And since then, we've seen firms from BlackRock to Fidelity, Franklin, Invesco, and many others, including crypto native firms having launched spot Bitcoin ETFs and spot Ethereum ETFs. And these steps in the minds of many investors have legitimized crypto as an investible asset class.Most recently, we've seen the SEC adopt generic ETF listing standards for crypto ETFs that can make it easier to accelerate ETF launches in reduced regulatory frictions. And today the crypto ETF space is about $200 billion of assets under management and saw inflows of over [$]40 billion last year, over [$]45 billion so far this year – despite some of the near-term volatility. And most of the asset class today is in Bitcoin, single token ETFs, with BlackRock and Fidelity managing the largest ETFs in the space.Speaking of products, what types of crypto are retail investors most curious about? And why do those particular ones make sense for their portfolios?Denny Galindo: Yeah, I think you hit the nail on the head. The most popular products are really the Bitcoin products. We as a firm allowed solicitation in Bitcoin ETPs more than a year ago in brokerage accounts. We just expanded them to allow them in Advisory in October. So, we're still early days here. There really hasn't been that much interest in the other crypto products.Now when people think about this, there's three buckets here. There are some people that think of it like digital gold. And they're worried about inflation. They're worried about government deficits. And that's kind of the angle that they're approaching crypto from. A second group think of it like a venture capital, like a disruptive innovation in tech that's going after this big addressable market. And, you know, hopefully the penetration will rise in the future. And then the third bucket is really thinking [of it] out it as a diversifier. So, they're saying, ‘Hey, this thing is volatile. It doesn't match stocks, bonds, other assets. And so, I kind of want to use it for diversification.'Now, Mike, when you have these discussions with institutional clients, how do they view the risk and potential of these different cryptocurrencies?Michael Cyprys: What's interesting with the crypto space is adoption started on the retail side with institutions now slowly beginning to explore allocations. And that's the opposite of what we've seen historically with institutions leaning in ahead of retail in areas, whether it's commodities or private markets. But it's still early days.On the institutional side, we're starting to see some pensions, endowments, foundations begin to make some small allocations to Bitcoin as a long-term inflation hedge. But keep in mind, institutions tend to make investments in the context of strategic asset allocations, often with a broader macro framework.Denny, you've written quite a bit about the four-year crypto cycle. Could you explain what that is and where you think we are in the current crypto cycle?Denny Galindo: Yeah, if you look at the data, you see a pretty clear trend of a four-year cycle. So, there's three up years and one down year, and it's been like clockwork, since Bitcoin was invented.Now when you see something like that, you always try to explain like: why is this happening? So, there's two kind of dominant explanations that we've seen. So, one's macro, one's micro. Now the macro version for crypto is really the M2 cycle. So, we see that M2 to that global M2 money supply has kind of accelerated and decelerated in four-year cycles, and Bitcoin tends to really match that cycle. It tends to accelerate when M2's accelerating and it tends to decline when it's decelerating or declining.But there's also this bottoms-up way of looking at it, and commodities are really the place we go to for that analysis. So, a lot of commodities, you know, could be coffee, could be oil – if something disrupts supply, you tend to get the shortage, you get the price moving up.Then you get commodity speculators piling in, adding leverage. And it'll just kind of go parabolic. At some point something pops the bubble, usually more supply, and then you get like a great depression. You get like an 80 percent draw down. All the leverage comes out and the whole thing crashes. So crypto has also followed that.Now, we break the four-year cycle into four seasons: spring, summer, fall, and winter. And each season has a different characteristic about which parts of the market work, which don't work, what things look like. We are in the fall season right now. And that tends to last about a year. We wrote a note last year on this. Fall is the time for harvest. So, it's the time you want to take your gains.But the debate is, you know, how long will this fall last? When will the next winter start? Or maybe this pattern won't even hold in the future. And so, this is the big debate in the crypto circles these days.And Mike, given the volatility, given the great depressions we talked about in Bitcoin with these, you know, 70-80 percent drawdowns, how do you see it fitting into institutional portfolios compared to other cryptocurrencies?Michael Cyprys: Compared to other cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin is still viewed as the flagship asset within the crypto space – just given higher adoption, greater liquidity, the sheer market value. It has longer history and better regulatory clarity as compared to other tokens. But given the volatility as you mentioned, and the early days nature of cryptocurrencies, adoption is still quite nascent amongst institutional investors.Some institutional investors view Bitcoin as digital gold or macro hedge against inflation and monetary debasement. It's also sometimes viewed as a low correlation diversifier within multi-asset portfolios. But even that's also been a debate in the marketplace too.As we look forward from here, crypto adoption within institutional portfolios could potentially expand as regulatory clarity establishes a clear framework for digital assets, right? We had the Genius Act recently that focused on stablecoins. Next up is market structure. There's a bill working its way through Congress.We've also had developments on the ETF side that lower[s] barriers for institutions to gain exposure there. Not only is it more accessible within traditional portfolios, but the ETF fits nicely into day-to-day workflow.So, bottom line is institutional views on Bitcoin and crypto are evolving, and how firms view Bitcoin – we think will depend upon the institution's objectives, their risk tolerance and portfolio context. And keep in mind that institutional allocations don't turn on a dime. They tend to be slower moving.Denny, do retail clients take a similar approach or are they more likely to take bigger bets?Denny Galindo: Our clients struggle with this question. And so, we get a lot of questions like, ‘Okay, I don't want to miss this. I'm a little nervous about it. What allocation should I use here?' And so, we go back to our three, kind of, typical investors when we try to answer this question. We really try and help people figure out where is equal weight.So, we wrote a note in February called “Are you Underweight Bitcoin?” And we have three different answers depending on how you're thinking of it. And, you know, there's a big debate. There's no clear answer. And that's not really where we want our clients. We want them to be smaller where they can have some exposure if they want it. Not everyone wants it, but if you do want it, you can have it. And it won't really dominate the volatility of the portfolio.Now, on another note, Mike, are you seeing legacy platforms start to offer crypto as well?Michael Cyprys: So crypto ETFs are generally available in self-directed brokerage accounts across the industry today. Schwab, for example, commented that their customers hold $25 billion in crypto ETFs, which is about, call it 20 percent share of the ETF space. But access to these crypto ETFs is a bit more restricted within the Advisor-led channel. But we're starting to see that broaden out for ETFs and eventually might see model portfolios with allocations toward crypto ETFs.But when you look at spot crypto trading, though, that generally remains out of reach of most legacy platforms. The key hurdle for that has been regulatory clarity and with a more crypto friendly administration that is changing here.So, Schwab, for example, acknowledged that they have the regulatory clarity needed and they're working towards launching their spot crypto trading platform in the first half of next year.On that topic, Denny, how do you view the merits of holding crypto directly versus through an exchange-traded product like ETFs?Denny Galindo: Yeah, I mean, our clients are mostly not day trading this product and kind of moving it back and forth.So, the ETPs have been a pretty good answer for them. The one issue is liquidity. And so, we're not used to thinking of this in; the U.S. equity markets are the most liquid markets. But in crypto, the crypto markets, the spot markets are actually more liquid than the equity markets.So, you get a lot of liquidity even after hours, even 24x7. And as other markets around the world kind of take the lead. But most of our investors aren't treating it that way. They're not day trading it, and they're really keeping it more like that digital gold allocation. And so, they just need to adjust the position size, you know, once a month, once a year maybe; just kind of buy and hold.But I wonder, you know, as more people get more comfortable, it could become more important in the future. So, it's an open question, but for now, the ETPs have been a pretty good answer here.Michael Cyprys: Fascinating space. Denny, thanks so much for taking the time to talk.Denny Galindo: It was great speaking with you, Mike.Michael Cyprys: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.