With the ever-growing community of NFTs, Ethereum may no longer be enough. Enter Polygon, an easy-to-use platform for Ethereum scaling and infrastructure development. Not only is it more efficient than Ethereum but it's also more economical. Join hosts Jeff Kelley, Eathan Janney, and Josh Kriger as they talk to Sachi Kamiya and Masha Prusso of Polygon. Sachi runs the $100M Polygon Ecosystem Fund. Masha is the Head of Events at Polygon and is also a Partner at Story VC. Listen in to learn more about Polygon and its future plans for blockchain gaming. Find out more about the Polygon Ecosystem Fund and the future of NFTs today!
When The Lanby opened in 2021, membership filled quickly. Concierge medicine is growing, but the next question is: How can it scale up? Author: Jessica Migala Link to article: https://www.levelshealth.com/blog/why-the-lanby-believes-the-future-of-healthcare-is-patient-centric-and-personalized Become a Levels Member – levelshealth.com Learn about Metabolic Health – levelshealth.com/blog Follow Levels on Social – @Levels on Instagram and Twitter
On the 39th episode of Go Book Yourself, the podcast that helps you Master Writing, Marketing, and Publishing One Byte at a Time, we're putting readers first. Well, we always do, but we'll tell you how to do it in such a way that they feel special and your writing positively shines! Question: What in the French toast does being reader-centric mean in writing? Answer: Just what it sounds like: serving the reader, putting them first. Being anticipatory. Here are three tips that you can apply to your writing, right now, today, to become instantly reader-centric! (Of course, there are more on the podcast, so don't miss out!) Writing to give them resources - Where can you refer your reader to find the information they need that will be the most beneficial to them? Writing to prevent their pain - Whether you are distracting them from any kind of pain or sharing with them lessons you learned that they can use, readers love this form of writing. Writing to set them free in their imaginations - Storytelling is such a gift that humans can give freely. There's nothing like getting lost in another world, traversing landscapes that are new to your senses, getting inside the head of a wily character, gasping in surprise at a masterful suspense novel. Nothing at all like it. Don't hold back in this area, and you will have readers flocking to you for more. We are creating our books to help, lift, advise, resolve, ease, entertain, fascinate, enthrall, and so on. That needs to be the focus. Let's do it in a way that the reader will not just love, but they will appreciate. Got questions or ready to work on your book? Reach out to your host, Hilary Jastram, for guidance here → GBYPodcast.com. Thanks for tuning in! If you like what we have to say, please share this episode, and leave us a review—especially if it's a nice one. And if you really liked this episode, subscribe and get updates on upcoming episodes, as well as read all the show notes. Don't let intimidation stop you from becoming an author or pouring your heart into any media. Storytelling is life. That's it for this chapter until next week. In the meantime, write on! Music Credits: -------------------- Happy Excited Intro 04 by TaigaSoundProd Link: https://filmmusic.io/song/6802-happy-excited-intro-04 Bright Hopes Corporate by MusicLFiles Link: https://filmmusic.io/song/6352-bright-hopes-corporate License: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Uhh...so Cleveland's counting on Rajon Rondo to be motivated to play in Ohio? Good luck... Well, besides that small piece of news, please enjoy some podcast counter-programming: Outline: Potential Non-THT Kendrick Nunn Trade Targets What Does the Wings Buy-Out Market Look Like This Season? The Type of Player We Wish Pelinka Would Target More Often ... Check out Knuckleheads over at The Players' Tribune (https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/knuckleheads-with-quentin-richardson-darius-miles/id1452698284) ... Intro/Outro Music Provided By: Hello Harry - "Forever" (Search His Page Up on SoundCloud for More #Litty Beats) ... Please also Rate & Review us 5-stars on the Apple Podcast App.Patreon: Patreon.com/TheLakersLegacyPodcast YouTube - Lakers Legacy Twitter - @LakersLegacyPod Instagram: @lakerslegacypod Listen & Subscribe to us on: Apple, Spotify, Anchor, Google Play, etc. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Ali Jaffery is the founder of Strong Support. Strong Support is a peer support organization for Muslims who struggle with their sexuality, however, do not accept or identify with a stereotyped sexual identity and wish to live a God-centric life. Strong Support was established in October 2019 to support Muslims struggling with same-sex lust and to provide an information platform for friends and families of those struggling on the topic of sexuality in the Muslim ummah. In this interview, we sit down together to discuss: 0:00 - Introduction 5:19 - Where does the name Strong Support come from? 7:39 - What is the biggest challenge that he faced in building Strong Support? 10:42 - What is Ali's process working with Muslims? 13:52 - What is Ali's thoughts on people questioning their sexuality who wish to live a God-Centric life? 19:35 - Is R-rated content contributing to aggravating the challenges that people go through? 23:45 - Has Ali gone through people who have had issues with their sexuality after going through Pornography addiction? 29:18 - What is Ali's view on shifting identities? 35:31 - What are some ways in which Ali helps his clients? 42:26 - What advice would Ali give to his younger self? 59:15 - How to connect with Strong Support? ------------------ Connect with Ali Jaffery: http://www.strongsupport.co.uk https://www.linkedin.com/in/ali-jaffery — BOOK A FREE DISCOVERY SESSION — Need help starting or growing your online business? Click here to book a call with my team! — CONNECT WITH UMMAHPRENEUR — Join Our Livestream Facebook Group Follow Ummahpreneur on Instagram Subscribe To Ummahpreneur's Youtube Channel
Today, Mark Divine speaks with Dr. Gabrielle Lyon about her muscle-centric approach to medicine, why obesity is a secondary problem, and how resistance training, high quality protein, and sleep are crucial to health and longevity. Key Takeaways: Dr. Lyon's muscle-centric medicine focuses on the root cause of obesity, loss or defect of skeletal-muscle—skeletal-muscle is not only important for the well-known reasons of strength and increased metabolism. It is an endocrine organ. Every time skeletal-muscle contracts it excretes myokines. Myokines affect immunity, brain health, and the way we use nutrients. There are two ways to drive skeletal muscle, resistance training, and dietary protein. Resistance training looks different for everyone, but it is important to train to the point of muscle failure. Protein should be high quality, animal protein. Worldwide, over 100 million people suffer from sleep apnea. Some of the risk factors for sleep apnea are: environmental exposure, inability to lose weight, anxiety, hypertension, and TBIs. Untreated sleep apnea is incredibly dangerous, as it is linked to hypertension, poor cardiovascular health, hormonal imbalances, anxiety, and depression. The good news is that it is easy to diagnose with an at-home sleep test. Testosterone naturally declines as we age. Training, diet, sleep, and reducing stress can all increase our testosterone levels, but it may not be enough to reach optimal levels without supplementation.. Optimal levels of testosterone affect quality of life in several ways including mood, energy, sex drive, and ability to maintain muscle. Links: Dr. Gabrielle Lyon Twitter Instagram YouTube
In today's podcast episode, Michael Buzinski from Buzzworthy and Stephen Halasnik from Financing Solutions (financingsolutionsnow.com) discuss how to add value to a business using the rule of twenty-six. These solutions are helping service-centric businesses double their website revenue by improving key performance indicators.
I HIGHLY recommend you check out this podcast from one of my nearest and dearest Ashley & her co-host Cam. If you love Cults...this is literally your new favorite podcast. TSFU the Podcast is a true crime comedy podcast about cults, murder and other generally horrific stuff. TSFU hosts Ashley and Cam tell enthralling stories, using comedy and thorough research to explore what inspires people to do the awful things they do. Nature? Nurture? Society? Let's investigate from our couches together... while we play murder bingo! TSFU Ep. 71- The Family.mp3This week the gals talk about notoriously brutal Australian cult, The Family. Jeepers Creepers!Ash dives into the life of Anne Hamilton-Byrne, and how she eventually became the leader of a yoga/LSD/baby-napping/Children of the Corn cult. Born Evelyn Edwards, Anne grew up poor and spent time in orphanages in rich neighborhoods as a child. Seeing how the upperclass lived, she always knew that she wanted a piece of the pie. When Evelyn's first husband died, she reinvented herself as a glamorous yoga teacher and medium named Anne Hamilton. Preaching a mishmash of Christianity, Eastern mysticism and apocalyptic prophecy, she convinced hundreds that she was Jesus, using large quantities of LSD on her members and herself. One day she had a vision that the world was going to end in some horrific way and that she needed to start a master race of children who would be left to re-educate what's left of the world. So she basically began stealing babies and made them all look alike, with the same clothes, haircuts and bleached blonde hair. Likely going for a Von Trapp family vibe, she gave them more of a Children of the Corn look. And things only get more insane and tragic from there.... it's not just yoga you guys!!Play the new and improved version of "Cult Bingo" with us for a chance to win a FREE month of Patreon! Find bingo at tsfuthepodcast.com/bingo!Or if you'd like to support your gals and the show, you can head over to patreon.com/TSFU and join for as little as $5 a month! That's less than a latte! And in honor of spooky season, throughout the months of October and November, you get a 15% discount if you sign up for our annual membership! That's only 14 cents a day for tons of swell Patreon perks!You can find links to all of our sources, our Discord, our super sweet merch store, and more at tsfuthepodcast.com!Follow us @tsfuthepodcast on Instagram, Twitter and Facebook!Audio engineering by Evette Darensbourg.Sources: https://tsfuthepodcast.com/blog/the-family-matching-haircuts-apocalyptic-p
The model that most modern B2B businesses rely on to generate leads is broken. That's the premise behind Nelson Gilliat's book “Death of the SDR and Birth of Buyer-Centric Revenue.” In this episode of The Inbound Success Podcast, Nelson explains why marketers need to get off of what he calls the “MQL hamster wheel” and ditch SDRs in favor of creating thought leadership content and investing in organic social.
Paramount Fine Foods is an 80 restaurant, 17 butcher shop food company chain, operating not just in Canada but in seven other countries around the world. Mohamad Fakih, president and CEO of Paramount Fine Foods, started the operation after coming to Canada in 2006, with $1,200 in his pocket. Fakih sat down with RealAg Radio... Read More
This month we sat down with Toni Crawford from Summit Financial to talk about end of year plans and how to prepare for the new year. She shares dates to keep in mind, how to plan for retirement starting now, and how Summit Financial helps Centric's members Live Better.
A Dynamic Interview With Adam Take Notes As We Discuss The World Of Being A CEO & Also What Emerging Entrepreneurs Should Be On The LookFor As We Advance Further Into The DecadeTune In & Share With Your Community
As an analyst at market research firm The NPD Group, Joe Derochowski's job is simple, at least in theory: He tries to understand what people buy, and why they buy it. In practice, it's fiendishly complicated, requiring everything from high level analysis of the housing market to deep dives into human behavior—and more than a few retail field trips to observe the American consumer in its natural habitat. In this episode the podcast, Derochowski chats with host Warren Shoulberg about hot topics in home retail, ranging from rising inflation to what's shaping up to be a lucrative holiday season. Derochowski also weighs in on how long we can expect the home boom to last, and why the debate between e-commerce sales and brick-and-mortar retail misses the point. LINKSThe NPD GroupBusiness of Home
RUOK with Capitalism? Did scientists really make a warp bubble, like from Star Trek? Not really. Greg Fish shares how a false headline spread across the internet like wildfire, but the real story still has some amazing and exciting science behind it. Chris Gilbert makes his return, live from Tokyo! He shares the story of a man who was attacked by a pack of otters, research into why Cats may be psychopaths, and more! Plus, how to have a very Kiwi Christmas. HEY, DO YOU LIKE PODCASTS? Why not subscribe to ours? find it on Apple, Google, Spotify & Curiouscast.ca See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Obesity is a prevalent and growing epidemic in the United States and worldwide, and it's also a major contributor to other chronic illnesses like diabetes, heart disease, and cancer. At this time in history, when we have the best technology and more knowledge than ever before, how can it be that our citizens are fatter and sicker than ever? Something is clearly wrong with our approach to treating obesity, and today we're going to dive into what that is. Dr. Gabrielle Lyon is the world's leading expert in Muscle-Centric Medicine, a revolutionary approach to improving muscular health through a protein-rich diet, exercise, and lifestyle shifts. Her protocol teaches muscle optimization for body composition, vitality, and overall long-term health. This episode contains mind-blowing conversations on the power of dietary protein, and why it's been demonized in our culture. We're going to talk about why building muscle is the key to many of our common ailments, plus dietary tips you can implement to optimize your macronutrient ratios. We can all agree that there's a huge flaw in our current paradigm to treating obesity and other chronic illnesses, and Dr. Lyon is here to create change. So listen in, take good notes, and enjoy this episode of The Model Health Show. In this episode you'll discover: The shocking results of eating a high protein breakfast vs. a high carbohydrate breakfast. What Muscle-Centric Medicine is, and why it matters. Why muscle mass is an underrepresented factor in obesity outcomes. The role that skeletal muscle plays in the development of chronic illnesses. How body weight and brain function are interconnected. What myokines are and how they're released in the body. The effects that skeletal muscle has on immune system function. Why our solutions to the obesity epidemic are not working. Where insulin resistance begins in the body. What you need to know about protein consumption as you age. The definition of sarcopenia, and how to combat it with your diet. General guidelines for calculating your protein intake. How the thermic effect of food works. The role skeletal muscle plays in glucose regulation. A huge misconception behind cancer development and protein consumption. The truth about eating red meat. How gluconeogenesis works. Ways to improve your cardiovascular health. The link between dietary protein and immune health. A comparison between plant-based proteins and animal-based foods. What collagen does in the body (and what it can't do!) Why you should start and end your day with protein-rich meals. Items mentioned in this episode include: PaleoValley.com/model -- Use code MODEL for 15% off! Digestive Wellness by Dr. Elizabeth Lipski Connect with Dr. Gabrielle Lyon Website / Instagram / YouTube Join TMHS Facebook community - Model Nation Be sure you are subscribed to this podcast to automatically receive your episodes: Apple Podcasts Stitcher Spotify Soundcloud *Download Transcript
Have you ever struggled with anxiety? What about anxiety caused by having a conversation and anticipating how that conversation would go? Well, my guest has.Today I'd like to introduce to you Joel Clelland. Joel is the CEO at Centric, an innovative dual-token digital currency company focused on the global adoption and use of cryptocurrency. In this thrilling conversation, Joel tells me that he feels like he's struggling with the conversation side of business. What he means is that when he has to speak in public, he tends to really dissect what he's going to say beforehand, and pays attention to his words and intentions. But when the time comes to actually speak, Joel gets nervous and sometimes ends up missing information or saying the wrong thing, when all he wants to do is spread his message. To help Joel, I recommend following the Five Coaching Steps, all the way to encapsulation, which will ultimately help him say the right words and reach the connections he's after.In addition, Joel also struggles with anxiety. Before meetings, before conferences, before a webinar. But it mostly comes from his fear of missing something when speaking. That makes Joel feel uncomfortable. And that's okay! What I say to him is that he should play it out so it fails. “But what does that mean, Kim?” Well, anxiety comes from fearing the worst, right? So if we imagine what the worst-case scenario could be, then we can imagine recovery, and when we do, then we can start focusing on success.Click here to listen to this episode!https://www.frameofmindcoaching.com/the-frame-of-mind-coaching-podcastRead the episode's transcript here:https://www.buzzsprout.com/1252997/episodes/9711441Do you also struggle with anxiety? Do you have a challenge you'd like to discuss? Reach out! If there's any issue you want to talk about here on the podcast or privately, please send me an email:email@example.comTo learn more about the 5 steps, what they are and how to apply them properly, click here!www.frameofmindcoaching.com/5-coaching-stepsYou can also check out one of our previous episodes where we talk about encapsulation and the Five Coaching Steps!Encapsulation And The Five Coaching Steps: With Nancy Myershttps://www.buzzsprout.com/1252997/episodes/9510880
Consumers are going local following the pandemic – and the Chelmsford Guide is the perfect local marketing tool to get your local businesses in front of more prospects. Go to https://www.chelmsford.guide (https://www.chelmsford.guide) to find out more!
In this episode of Soft But Stronger, David discusses spiritual-centric frameworks for making decisions..Message me on Instagram @droojitsu: https://www.instagram.com/droojitsu/ or https://talk.volley.app/david .All episodes: http://softbutstronger.transistor.fm
Sherry Lowe is the distinguished chief marketing officer at Exabeam. She was also the former CMO at Expanse and served in a similar role at Druva and Splunk. In this episode of Cybersecurity Unplugged, Lowe discusses: Standing out in a market full of lookalikes; Not allowing a focus on metrics to run and ruin marketing efforts; Eliminating the competitive nature between sales and marketing.
We have all dealt with setbacks. Relationships, finances, careers. Everyone has had a moment in their life when the going gets tough and it feels like it is taking forever to get through it. Phoenix has experienced this all before. In this episode, she shares her advice for anyone going through a rough patch: you will get to the other side. Stay strong and keep your head held high. For show notes, resources, and more, visit: https://www.saywharadio.com/listen/lifeasp/
What a concept – “dying to self”. What exactly does this mean? Why is it needed? This is a discussion extremely relevant for us today as our culture seems to be moving in the opposite direction of this Biblical description of what happens to all believers as they progress in Christ. Please join us we discover how this idea really is a progression rather than a loss in the life of a Christian.
Data is reframing the global conversation regarding advancements in health care. In this episode of TechTalk, health care innovator and advanced technology expert Radhika Iyengar joins EisnerAmper's West Coast Technology and Life Sciences Practice Leader Amar Bhatkhande to discuss how blockchain and artificial intelligence are transforming the health care industry—and its future.
Most of us would agree that children in a society should be protected and should have rights. But what should those rights be?In this episode of the Limitless Spirit Podcast, our host Helen Todd speaks with Katy Faust, the founder and director of the children's rights organization, “Them Before Us”. Katy's parents divorced when she was ten years old, and her father went on to remarry while her mother entered a same-sex relationship. She is now a mom of 4 children, she has worked at the largest Chinese adoption agency in the world, and she has 20 years of experience in youth ministry. In this episode, you'll hear how Katy's professional experience as well as her parents' divorce shaped her strong view on the importance of putting the needs of children before the desires of adults. She will highlight the current trends that have the most devastating effect on children, and how we can help protect our kids from the indoctrination they face in culture. 3:52 - Katy Faust's story7:35 - Katy's inspiration to start the “Them Before Us” movement9:40 - The effect on a child of being deprived of a parent12:20 - Different threats to the emotional wellbeing of children in our culture16:50 - Katy talks about what surrogacy really is25:00 - How can we protect our kids from being harmed by today's culture?29:30 - How you can help the Them Before Us movement You can read Katy Faust and Stacy Manning's book “Them Before Us: Why We Need a Global Children's Rights Movement” on Amazon:https://www.amazon.com/Them-Before-Us-Childrens-Movement/dp/1642935964 Learn more about Them Before Us at their website:https://thembeforeus.com/After you listen to this episode, go to our host website: www.rfwma.org and find out how World Missions Alliance can help you connect to your greater purpose. If you are interested in becoming a sponsor of the Limitless Spirit Podcast, click below:Support the show (https://rfwma.org/give) Email us your questions and comments at firstname.lastname@example.orgWMA is 501(c)(3), donations are tax deductibleSupport the show (https://rfwma.org/give)
As Centric continues our Holiday Double Points promotion, we decided it would be a great time with one of Centric's most credit-wise employees, Lori Riggin, our Assistant Vice President of Consumer Lending. Lori shares with us the knowledge she has earned over her 29 years at Centric working with our members to help them reach their financial goals and teaching them how to build and manage their credit. Lori shares reasons why we should have a credit card in our wallet and tips on how to use it so it helps us.
Rod Babers, Matt Butler and Jeff Howe are back to discuss a 22-17 win over Kansas State that snapped a six-game losing streak and ended the 2021 season with Steve Sarkisian and Co. able to take something positive into the offseason. After the Longhorns beat the Wildcats, however, all hell broke loose in college football and the moves of Oklahoma's Lincoln Riley to USC and Notre Dame's Brian Kelly to LSU make it worth examining how Texas handled last offseason's coaching change. You can get the latest Longhorn news and analysis at Horns247. The Horn, Austin's home for University of Texas athletics, airs Longhorn Blitz Tuesday night at 7 p.m. and is where Rod (3-7 p.m.) and Jeff (10 a.m.-12 p.m.) can be heard on the air daily. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In today's episode, our guest is Louis Silberman, the founder and president of the National Laser Institute and Louology. He has always wanted to be a healthcare entrepreneur but was just too scared to jump in without the proper vision and mission, but with the right determination, Lou Silberman was able to create a video-centric medical business empire dedicated to the global community of people in the aesthetic and beauty field.
With a purposeful career in the education space spanning over more than 20 years, Dr. Shauli Mukherjee has dedicated her life towards promotion of child-centric and activity-oriented education. A passionate educationist and a thought leader with a background of setting up and leading new age K- 12 schools, Dr. Mukherjee had been the Founder Principal of Adamas World School and STEM World School, the first STEM school in West Bengal. Under her inspiring leadership, STEM World School had been ranked and awarded as the 2nd best International Day School in West Bengal by Education World. Dr. Mukherjee ardently believes that the purpose of meaningful education is to develop lifelong learners, creative thinkers and responsible global citizens who are confidently equipped to face the challenges of an uncertain and constantly unfolding future. All through her career in education, Dr. Mukherjee had actively contributed to and spearheaded the process of creating a personalized, engaging and stress-free curriculum for children of all age groups. She has been the recipient of numerous awards and accolades including NATIONAL QUALITY EXCELLENCE AWARD, GEM OF INDIA AWARD, SARVEPALLI RADHAKRISHNAN AWARD, GURUPNISHAD SAMMAN, GURUVARYA SAMMAN, NATIONAL EDUCATION LEADERSHIP AWARD in the category of commitment to excellence in education, (to name a few), WORLD PEACE AWARD. She has also been awarded for being among INDIA'S TOP 50 WOMEN LEADERS IN THE EDUCATION INDUSTRY & TOP 20 REVOLUTIONARY EDUCATION LEADERS by the Academic Council of ULektz. She is associated with premiere educational organizations across India as well as globally in senior advisory capacity. She is also recognized among 99 WOMEN ACHIEVERS OF INDIA FOR THE YEAR 2021. As a highly prolific motivational speaker, she is regularly invited to numerous national and international conferences, summits, conclaves and events to share her insights on the futuristic and transformative role of education. She is currently working as the Director of School of Education at Adamas University, India. https://www.linkedin.com/in/dr-shauli-mukherjee-2b1a4b89 https://www.facebook.com/misti.banerjee.1806 drshaulimukherjee (Instagram) https://youtu.be/yDSNMJyjmy VISIT OUR WEBSITE: https://www.coachtinaramsay.com/ --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/thetinaramsayshow/message Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/thetinaramsayshow/support
Be part of our community by joining our Facebook group: https://www.facebook.com/groups/thoughtbehindthings In conversation with tonight's guest, Ayla Adnan. How she was able to access the American side of content? Was she able to convert the TikTok audience to Instagram? How did her parents' divorce affect her personality? What is her understanding of women's empowerment? What is the organization she started voluntarily? What was her research about sanitary pads? How her school makes her passionate about certain issues? How does she feel like a woman living in Pakistan and much more? Catch it all in tonight's episode! Connect with us: • https://www.instagram.com/thoughtbehindthings • https://www.instagram.com/muzamilhasan Ayla's Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/p/CWIzfDBo1D7/ The Pakistan Pivot podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6c9K50ZVaps&t=27s --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/syed-muzamil-hasan-zaidi3/support
Dr. Jack W. Wiley, who is recognized internationally for pioneering research linking employee work attitudes to measures of organizational success, joins Sarah to talk about his latest research and book around the traits and benefits of employee-centric management.
Episode 103 with Steven NgatiThe Longhorn fanatic who created a platform called Fanatic Perspective has quite a story how his Longhorn fandom came about.It involves his late mother who has ties to Lockhart, TX and UT.Ngati, who is a life long Longhorn fan, grew up on the east coast and graduated from the prestigious HBCU, Howard University.He made his way to Austin as quickly as possible and entered the tech industry at Dell, but has a passion for and a background in journalism.Ngati parlayed that passion for journalism and analysis of sports into a podcast, Fanatic Perspective.Since then, Steven's podcast has built quite a following of over 10k people.In this episode, Ngati offered his takes on the Longhorn football program and encourages the Texas fan base to practice patience towards Steve Sarkisian and this staff. Currently, it's not fun. But, much brighter days are ahead for the UT football program.We closed things out with the "Tell Me Something Good" segment which was in honor of Thanksgiving, expressing gratitude.Special thanks to: Jim Saxton State Farm Insurance Agency, Farmhouse Delivery, Cosmic Coffee + Beer Garden, and Our Community NowSupport the show (https://www.buymeacoffee.com/StoriesManCave)
EP281 - Mark Mahaney, author and top internet analyst Mark Mahaney is Senior Managing Director at Evercore ISI, Research Division, he's one of the original and longest lasting internet analysts on Wall Street. He recently published “Nothing but Net: 10 Timeless Stock-Picking Lessons from One of Wall Street's Top Tech Analysts.” We cover a variety of fun topics including the beginning of his career with with Mary Meeker. His initial evaluation of EBay. His long positions on Amazon, Netflix, and Priceline, and butting heads with Jim Cramer over Google. We also discuss what's next for Amazon, and where the best investments of the future might be. Episode 281 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Thursday, November 18th, 2021 http://jasonandscot.com Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. Transcript Jason: [0:00] Welcome to the Jason and Scot show this is episode 281 being recorded on Thursday November 18 20 21. I'm your host Jason retailgeek Goldberg and as usual I'm here with your co-host Scott Wingo. Scot: [0:16] Hey Jason and welcome back Jason Scott show listeners. Jason as you and the listeners know I am a huge scene in b.c. junkie and you can't turn on CNBC Durning Earth during earning Seasons without seeing Mark mahaney he is one of the top internet analyst. He was actually on recently talking about the artist previously known as Facebook meta Mark has a new book out called quote-unquote Nothing But net and is joining us tonight give listeners an early peek of what is sure to be the best seller in the bookmark covers some of our favorite companies including Amazon Apple Facebook / meta Google Netflix Twitter and Uber Mark welcome to the show. Mark: [0:56] Thanks for having me on guys. Jason: [0:58] Mark we are thrilled the chat with you is you know Scott is a huge Amazon fan boy so I anytime he gets a chance to talk Amazon he's excited. And I'm super excited because after tonight show I'm going to be smart enough to get rich like you and Scott so that's pretty pretty exciting for me. But before we jump into all that we always like to give listeners a little bit of a feel for our guests background and in your case I know I think you're officially the the oldest analysts on Wall Street is that true. Mark: [1:29] Well that's the oldest and longest lasting internet analyst on Wall Street but I don't look the part so how about we do that yes I've been covering Internet stock since 1998 do a series of bank said I started, working with this tremendous analysts her name was Mary Meeker her name is Mary Meeker and started the first Friday I was on Wall Street I got a call from the CFO of this tiny little online auction company that sold Pez dispensers and was looking to see whether any banks would be interested in their IPO that company was eBay so I wasn't there at the beginning of the internet but I was there pretty close to the beginning of the commercial for the public market to internet and it's been a fascinating ride and I thought there were a lot of lessons I could draw both from the successes the market and failures in the market and my personal successes and failures as a stock picker. Scot: [2:20] Cool what's so name some of the firm's so in my recollection you've probably worked at six firms like how many firms have you worked out over or that career. Mark: [2:30] Yeah now I don't want you to think I you know I jump around too much but I started off at Morgan Stanley also worked at Citibank Royal Bank of Canada. A small boot wonderful Boutique called American Technology research and I'm currently at evercore isi but I've been doing nothing but net. Hence the title of the book that's been my email tagline or always online is one of those two it's been my email tagline for 25 years but nothing but net and that's just doing my best to try to stay ahead of these internet stocks the early ones the the eBay's the Amazons the Yahoo excite if you might remember them infoseek. And then and then AOL and then and then later on some of the more Dynamic ones came out ended up with names like uber including most recently one you talked about Warby Parker so it's been a fascinating span and arguably one of the most dynamic. Parts of Wall Street I guess if you were working as an analyst on Wall Street. Or portfolio manager portfolio manager if you could have picked two sectors to be a part of to track over the last 25 years one of them has to have been the internet just how explosive it's been a been plenty of – explosions in there but there's been some wonderful wealth creation the other sector would probably be software just just too wonderful Industries I got lucky I was I was part of the internet. Scot: [3:49] Yeah I'm glad you didn't pick Mall Focus treats that would have been a bad choice. So you know as Jason mentioned there's kind of this auspicious title that you have of the oldest I would say wisest and most longest lasting internet unless. Tell us about some of the as you reflect in the book is kind of got some really good stories and you've been kind of on the front row seat of a lot of cool stuff maybe tell us what was your worst pick and best pick in the span of the career there. Mark: [4:22] Well I had a sale on Google it close to its IPO I was brought on to CNBC show and told by none other than Jim Jim Cramer that I was an analyst with a three-egg omelette on my face because of my cell phone call he was right I was wrong so you know one doesn't pretend one doesn't tend to forget moments like that on public television being told that you know you're pretty much an ass. But it does happen you know there are axes and then there are you know others and so I made plenty of mistakes I had to buy on Blue Apron although the lessons from that turned out to be different than I thought I got the call wrong but the lessons were different than I thought I kind of dissect that a little bit in the book. So those are some of my some of my worst calls I think my to my three best calls have frankly been sticking with a buy on Amazon for pretty much the last 15 years Netflix for the last 12 years and Priceline and now now booking for. [5:18] For a solid 12 years both Netflix of all three of those were really decades-long S&P 500 Best in Class stocks for a variety of different reasons and in the book I try to call out what were those reasons what were the what's that what's the pattern recognition so that you know we as investors can find the next Netflix and the next Amazon doesn't mean and Amazon and Netflix can't perform well from here but what are the things you can see in common that can help you as a stock picker you know kind of see ahead what really kind of started a lot of the the insights the idea of the book was this wonderful book that was written in 1980 called that one up on wall by Peter Lynch kind of a Bible or primer for anybody really looking to invest invest in the market with some wonderful advice and I really had any wrote it based on some wonderful examples of successful stocks and companies of his generation and I thought somebody needed to write one about our generation and you know these phenomenal money-making we know wealth-creating stocks that have. [6:19] That have soared the charts top the charts over the last 20 10 5 and even two years that have been dramatic dramatic winners from the covid crisis to I try to keep it long term in duration and frankly that's one of the big lessons I have in my book is. Is you know long-term I've found stocks do follow fundamentals they just do companies get bigger more Revenue more profits their stocks go higher almost always that's the case if you're a patient long-term investor so you can make money just investing you don't need to day trade and I think that was the last thing that really inspired me to write this book there about 15 million new. [6:53] Trading accounts that have opened up over the last two years you know the mean Traders the Robin Hood accounts and I just wanted to step back and say look you can have very good returns in the markets by buying high quality companies especially Tech and growth companies you don't have to day trade you can sleep better at night I got plenty of examples of companies that created wonderful. Shareholder returns over time and their stories you can take your time and really understand and stick with and anyway that's it this is this book is a little bit of little bit of personal Memoir but really more of a history of the Great. Companies and the ones that failed and then what are the lessons you can draw to apply going forwards. Jason: [7:32] Got it so I know it's not in your coverage area but you would have a buy on GameStop is that what you're saying no. I Nostalgia requires me to ask though I am staring right now at a pets.com. Puppet still in the box that's like sort of a Memento I have on my on my desk like we're you covering like those guys at the at the. Dot-com boom. Mark: [8:00] No no I didn't but I refer to that in the book and I make this I draw the comparison you know pets.com and smoke you know pets.com went public with trailing 12 month month revenues of 5 million I don't know if you heard that right five million dollars. [8:16] Trailing 12 months they had been an operating company for under two years I mean how that thing got out you know in hindsight is is is pretty shocking but wait a second go you know go forward 15 years and what came out. To e.com chewy.com went public with 3 billion in trailing sales and you knows the same sort of basic value proposition to Consumers it's just that the market was a lot bigger it allowed for a lot more scale and a bunch of other things came out o like cell phones smartphones cloud computing which allowed companies to scale up at much lower costs and so the markets really were proved out at that you know the time of pets.com there were three unknowns is there really an internet Market are there really good management teams and other really good business models today the first question is emphatically yes they are huge Market opportunities and they've been proven in in the Internet space advertising retail entertainment a lot of different ways you can cut it and there's some business models have generated enormous amounts of free cash flow and then there are yes of course there's always a few select excellent management teams who find that right combination it can be it's proven to be a great path to making money in stocks and chewy has been a stock that I've really liked since its IPO even though it's the next pets.com and that's the cynicism that people be placed in front of it when they went public. This was a very different puppy. Jason: [9:39] Yeah it does it seems like timing it seems obvious but timing is such a big. Part of all that you referenced Peter Lynch and I know you know there's. There's all the old Netflix stuff I actually started my career at Blockbuster entertainment and so in my in my industry everyone makes fun of Blockbuster that we got Netflix stand and all those sorts of things and I always have to point out. You know we sold Blockbuster for 18 billion dollars in 1995 like five years before Netflix was invented. Then it was a good business with a good exit you know every every business has it it's it's moment and it's time and you know the the railroads aren't the investment that they once were either. Mark: [10:28] Netflix is a fascinating story so let me let me let me jump to it a little bit you know one of the things the punchline of I asked people if you're going to remember one thing for my book I hope you'll still buy it but if you're going to remember one thing from my book it's dhq it's not DQ That's Dairy Queen dhq is dislocated high-quality companies and. You know time you mentioned timing I was thinking in terms of stock timing I thought those were your going to take us I think it's very hard to the time stocks but you know you can clearly see when stocks are dislocated I either traded off twenty Thirty forty percent so that's usually you know time if you think it's high quality asset and it dislocates them they all dislocate from time to time even the best highest quality names. That's when you can kind of Step In add the positions by the stock knowing that you in a way mitigated some of the valuation risk as investors your tries an investor you're trying to do two things mitigate valuation risk and mitigate fundamentals risk you know the chance that Revenue falls off a cliff margins get crushed the way you mitigate that fundamentals. Risk is to focus on companies with large Tam's excellent management teams great product Innovation and superb customer value prop and Netflix screen so well for me on those four things I'll just take this off super quickly if you don't mind. [11:42] The industry Vision so let's see Reed Hastings invented or started Netflix back in 1997 Netflix the name itself sort of implies that somehow we're going to be doing some streaming thing and this is a 1997 when it would have taken you four hours to download the first five minutes of Terminator like there was no streaming Market there but yet. [12:02] That was the premise of the company in 10 years later you know you look at the first initial interviews with Reed Hastings I mean this is where he was going to take the company all along so I was just giving him kudos for industry vision and the fact that he was willing to cannibalize his existing DVD business first dreaming business very few entrepreneurs can do that so management you know checks My Box customer value proposition the best way to tell whether a customer a company has a great value proposition is do they have pricing power will do people love it so much that they'll pay more for starting in 2014 Netflix started increasing pricing just about every other year and there's some ads accelerated that's a compelling that's evidence of compelling value proposition third is this product Innovation and you know they just don't have a lot of things not just streaming but there's a lot of these little tweaks that the side like binge watching you know kudos to Netflix for just rolling out new series all at once I mean practically invented binge-watching and of course you know they sort of invented the streaming thing or the people who founded music really did that but but Reed comes in a close close second on that and then you know I'm finally in terms of Tam's large Tam's total addressable markets. [13:13] You can add it up a couple of different ways but you know home entertainment video consumption it's it's a couple of hundred billion dollars in total you know Market opportunity and then who knows these things come along like smartphones and all of a sudden the majority of usage is on smartphones that tells you that these markets could be a lot bigger than we traditionally thought just like Spotify blew out the market for what really could be music advertising revenue and music subscription Revenue Netflix is did the same thing with me with Video subscription Revenue they blew up the tan they made it a lot bigger so that's right you know I love that story about the stories about Netflix I gave him a tremendous amount of Kudos I think the sometimes people under appreciate just because it's kind of a singular company just you know video video streaming I think they I think they don't get enough credit for what they've done and what they could still do because I think there's still one more one more trick up Reed Hastings sleeve and I think it's gaming and he's reached they've received such so much skepticism about this pivot or missing expansion in the gaming but you know management team to figured out dvd-by-mail streaming original content International expansion mount give them the benefit of the doubt that they can figure out an Innovative new way. To deliver gaming and therefore further increase their value proposition you'd want to stick with a company like that I stick with the stock like that. Scot: [14:34] Ever kind of a random question let's say there was I'll pick something at random a company that was Reinventing Car Care and making it mobile and digital would you call that a dhq. Mark: [14:45] I think that yes yes absolutely. Scot: [14:51] All right leading the witness. I do have to give you Kudos because in the Netflix section you do have a Star Wars reference you talk about the Disney death star which is which is appropriate because they now own the Death Star it's got a part of there is one of their IPs. Mark: [15:09] But by the way that was you know there were a couple of Netflix there's a rocky stock Rocky stock here that's right that's a that's a rocky stock for you it's had there were two times they miss Subs because of uncertainty over the price increases and they got some pushback it was an obvious that they had pricing power but they proved it over time and then they've got this great competitor risk with Disney and I think what the market missed on that this is just kind of leaving aside the book of just talking about stock picks is you know people are going to sign up for multiple streaming services now not now not five six or seven but they'll sign up for two or three if there's original content and they have original content I mean there's some things you will you have to sign up for Disney Plus for if you if people are like use God and you know dramatic. [15:52] Star Wars fans of course you can sign up for Disney plus but you know there's because its original content if you want to watch squid game there's one and one only place you can go for that and you know there's going to be another squid game or you know another show that just kind of breaks through the site-geist and by the way that's where Netflix is so I'll leave Netflix aside but I'm so struck by is this company shapes the Zeitgeist whether they can cause a run on chess board sales worldwide with the Queens Gambit a year ago where they can cause more people start studying Korean on Duolingo a language app which I actually like is the stock because they can you know they've introduced this show squid games like when a company reaches the Zeitgeist when they when they become almost like a lucky lexicon like they become a verb like I'm gonna google that or you know it's the Uber of this that or that you know that's that's something special and those are usually stocks that have gotten very long runways. Scot: [16:44] Yeah and I'm here in North Carolina and we have all these MBA we have all these universities and I was actually speaking earlier this week at MBA class over at Duke. And you know I have this whole little joke track that I do where I talk about my first company was profitable and I learned I could never raise VC because get the TV season that's a your profit we don't invest in property companies so yeah I often joke that I've been doing it wrong and ever since then I haven't made a dime. And I kind of thought it was those funny because you kind of. The internet sector was kind of early before SAS where and you point this out where there's kind of you know what we learned is there is an investor that loves Revenue growth and in a way that the opposite side of that coin is it can actually hurt you if you start to make profits maybe share with listeners that that you know probably many of them come from traditional businesses where that sounds nonsensical maybe maybe explain kind of what happened there. Mark: [17:41] Well I want to be I want to be on to get nuanced here which is you know I that chapter that says the most important thing out there is revenue revenue revenue you know for tech stocks and growth stock. But of course earnings and free cash flow matter it's that sometimes the public market is a lot longer term focused than people give it credit for Netflix is a great example that also is Amazon. I mean those those businesses had if you look at near-term valuation PE metrics price to free cash flow there's no way you would have bought those stocks. But what I think long-term growth investors realized is there's this you know when these get these assets that can grow their Top Line twenty to thirty percent Plus. From scale for multiple years like that can that creates an enormous amount of value over time and it's so rare I came up with something of a 20% rule you know it's one to two percent of the S&P 500 that can consistently grow at from scale their Top Line 20% which is like five times faster or six times faster than Global GDP growth so it's rare for good reasons but those companies dramatically outperformed the market because they're rare and it's not like growth and scale solve everything but geez they solve a lot of things I've yet to see it's got you know you go way back on this I'm sure you had these comments like Amazon will never turn a profit my first year on the street. [19:04] There's a person who's not one of the most influential investors out there put his finger in my chest. And said you know Amazon will never be profitable and you know I guess he must have been writing he was so smart but he was wrong because he didn't realize just what how powerful Amazon could be as it's scaled over time I mean you generate billions and billions in revenue and you can you can run over a lot of your fixed costs as long as you're not selling dollars for 95 cents you know if you're you know if you're selling them for a dollar and two cents and then you get scale against your fixed cost yeah scale will solve just about anything and I look at what happened with Amazon and I've looked at more much more recently its bring it up to up to date to Uber Uber just printed its first free cash flow quarter ever even though it's Rideshare businesses like down 40% since Pre-K covid levels how the heck did they do that because it took a lot of costs out of the business and then they had this delivery business that really scaled so look earnings matter it's just that when we look at tech stocks and growth stocks you know especially early on is IPOs they rarely go public. As profitable businesses the question you have to answer yourself is can they be profitable long-term are there companies that are already you know similar business models that are already are that's one way or their segments of the business that are already profitable. [20:19] Is there a reason that scale can't drive profitability for the company and the fourth what I call profitability Action question that detail this in a book is yo Are there specific steps steps that the management team can take to bring the product the company to profitability so I've yet to see a company. [20:36] And I'm sure there are some but I've yet to see one that hit the public markets that couldn't scale itself to profitability now some blew up. Well you know that's because they couldn't hit the enough scale so that's that's kind of my answer to the question of yes of course earnings and free cash flow matter at the end of the day that's what they're going to be valued on but just watch these companies that they really execute well they can take what looks like really aggressive valuations and overtime those valuations can turn awfully awfully attractive and a lot of times the stock wealth creation goes from point A to point B it doesn't start at point B. Jason: [21:10] Yeah the you know it's you mentioned then the Netflix. Effect on the cultural zygous fun fun stat on Queen's gamut it drove the sale of millions of chessboard and caused hundreds of people to start playing chess. I do one of the things that comes out strongest in in the book to me and that you alluded to upfront is sort of the difference between trading and investing. You know I always have people come up to me and they're like hey you know a lot about these retail companies what's a good investment and I'm like. I have no idea can you can you talk a little bit about sort of what you mean by sort of fundamental investing versus trading. Mark: [21:56] Well I sum it all up in the pithy expression don't play quarters I find playing quarters is almost a Fool's game the number of times I get questions you know what should I buy for the quarter and for little sophisticated institutional investors that could be I've got a position in. [22:15] Amazon or Google or Twitter and you know do I should I be you know heading into the position prior to earnings or you know facing back and adding to it more afterwards okay that's a different setup but if you're just playing a company for that quarter pop the problem is quarterly earnings reactions there's two things that drive them. Fundamentals great get the fundamentals right that it's expectations so the quarter trades are really about expectations you may get the quarter right you may be right that Nvidia or Roblox are going to have super strong quarters because I see how many of my friends kids are all over Roblox you maybe well right on that but you have to know you know what the market is actually expecting and numbers can go Revenue can accelerate but if the bar is higher than that then you're going to see these stocks trade off it happens a lot so I just unless you're unless you're a pro less you're in day in and day out. You know working working these stocks and really have a sense of where the expectations are. I think it's just a Fool's game to play play stocks just four quarters instead you know you want to stick with stocks for the you know you want to find an asset that you think is going to be. [23:29] Materially bigger in two to three years down the road and you think it's high quality based on some of the screens I threw out then stick with that name and don't try to play around the quarters and it's in fact sometimes you can use weakness or strength around the quarter to adjust your position but don't use it too initiator close out a position at the then you fall trap to these expectations game that is very hard to participate in if you're just a regular you know retail investor and you can make just as much money just staying invested in some of these great assets. Jason: [23:59] That is great advice and it's I certainly resonate with the sticking with the Investments I am curious though on the other end of that on the really long Horizon you mentioned you've you've been had a buy on Amazon for like 15 years. Wait. Like are you going to have a buying them for the next 15 years is that how I mean like does there come a point when they achieve their potential and you have to start worrying about them getting on the other side of the Hill. Mark: [24:26] Yeah I think you can I think you can one look for the fundamental towel and so I'm going to I'm going to spin over to another stock I talked about in the book Priceline. Which is actually the single best performing S&P 500 stock for like a 10 year period 2005 to 2015 phenomenal stock travel name everybody knows it William Shatner excetera although they're real secret sauce with what they did in European markets but. But that's a company that you know sustained premium growth like they were growing their bookings in the revenue 40 percent year over year for years and years and years and years and that's what powered that that that stock and when it stopped materially ah performed Market was when the growth rate decelerate it below 20%. [25:10] And so I don't want to you know create a hard and fast rule but I do feel strongly about this twenty percent rule 20 percent you know we're close to it you know don't don't Nick me at 19.8% you know could close to twenty percent is unusual rare growth. [25:23] And the markets usually pay up for that and when you see a company over time either because of Miss execution it happens or Market maturity and their growth rates you know kind of slide below 20% then that's when you reconsider your position that's a simplistic rule as a lot of caveats to that when I see with Amazon here is despite the size of this business I think they're still growing 20% for the next five years so in that if that's the case. [25:48] You know the simple rule of thumb is companies that can grow like. They can I like to see stocks that can double in in three years in order to do that you kind of have to do you know 20 to 25 percent earnings growth that's what a Maps out too. And you know you can double a stock in 3 years your handily beating the market in almost all time periods. And so when I see what it'll change my opinion really on Amazon is if I believe that this company is going to go X growth it's going to go you know well below 20 percent Revenue growth I just don't see that in the next couple of years given how much growth they have in retail in NE ws and cloud computing and in some of these really newer areas that I'm really interested in whether they really can crack the code on groceries and they can that's a large opportunity and business supplies Industrial Supplies I think that's a very underappreciated part of Amazon's business so I don't see myself changing my opinion on Amazon although you don't want things that we talked about this earlier that I love to see your founder LED companies that's no longer the case with with Amazon so that's you know at some level I've got slightly less conviction than the in the by case but I'm going to stick with it as long as the numbers prove out right and long as I can see this path that's consistent 20% Revenue. Scot: [26:59] Yeah and this is kind of breaking out of the book thing but since you brought up Amazon it wouldn't be a Jason Scott show if we didn't kind of double click on that what did any thoughts on the Q2 and Q3 earnings feels like they're slowing down a bit and feeling some of the labor and see what we call Supply pain on the show are you are you getting nervous about it or you think it's just a little one of their little kind of investment phases. Mark: [27:23] I called the six billion dollar kitchen sink that's how much lower their guidance was for operating income in the December quarter then then what the street was looking for like she was looking for close to eight billion and they guided to billions six billion dollar kitchen sink and they threw it all in there wage inflation you know you right you drive that route 95 on the east coast and you'll see Amazon Amazon is hiring Billboards up and down the East Coast Seaboard I did it recently so yeah they're aggressively hiring at higher wages that's impacting their margins there still some covid related cost shipping they're just not able to a sufficiently source and bring in product and so they have to bring in product into the the ports that aren't optimized for their distribution Network so just a lot of. [28:14] Positive blowing up now the question you have to ask yourself as an investor is are those are those cost increases elective structural discretionary temporary it's kind of like which of those are they the more that you can make a determination that the cost bikes are temporary the more you stick with the name if you think there's something structurally changed about Amazon okay that's different I don't think there's anything structurally changed about Amazon and certainly not its competitive position and then the last thing what I really like to see. [28:44] Frankly is this company. I mean the level of investment this company is making its distribution Network you know you talked about Facebook earlier they're dumping 10 billion into the metaverse which I think there's a there there but I don't know Amazon is dumping billions and billions into its own Logistics Network like they're doubling down on their core competency you bet I'll stick with that and what they're going to what's going to come out of that is even faster and faster delivery and they're going to prove out this concept what I call shipping elasticity the faster you ship the more that people are going to use you in a more of their of the more of their wallet and per-share you're going to Amazon's going to get so we're going to actually going to Super up one day delivery and then they're going to Super up super same day delivery and I think they'll be able to just grab more and more and offer more and more products to people so I like those kind of investment initiatives so I think a lot of that margin pressure by the way it was really due to these kind of elective investments in the infrastructure they added more distribution capacity the last two years than Walmart has in its history. That's how aggressive Amazon is being an eye you know my guess is that third we're going to see dramatic market share gains from Amazon in the next 12 months so I like those companies that kind of really lean in bendin and the double down on our core competency that's what the Amazon is doing now. Scot: [30:00] Yeah. The Press is making a lot of noise around Shopify versus Amazon and Shopify is kind of amplifying that with they're arming the rebels and everything. Jason Connor makes our I won't say his thing but he's not a believer in that I think it's kind of interesting in there's definitely no love lost between the company's what what's your take on that is that a real battle or is that just kind of genda by to kind of raise awareness for Shopify. Mark: [30:26] You have a quick point of view on that Scott. Scot: [30:29] I think Shopify becomes a Marketplace adjacent thinks that's crazy Jason what do you what I'll let you state your own opinion. Jason: [30:38] Yeah I mean I think Shopify is a phenomenal company and a good executor so I'm not throwing rocks at Shopify. They're to me they're not a competitor to Amazon they don't acquire customers they have no traffic there there. Piece of infrastructure and a great valuable piece of infrastructure but a piece of infrastructure. Doesn't draw any customers in so I call these people that are like oh man they're like Amazon they have all this aggregated gmv and they could sell ads to it and they can you know recruit more sellers because they have this this audience and all these things will they don't have any of those things they don't have a single b2c marketer. In their company and I would argue that's that's been one of Amazon's Court competencies is they've they use the flywheel to build this this huge audience that they get to sell all the. Their goods and services to so I just I don't think. They compete in any in any meaningful way and I think if Shopify were to try to become a true b2c company like Amazon. It would just be a phenomenal pivot it would be you know. Can't you know obviously they have the resources to fund trying for it but I'm not sure that's the best move for them. Mark: [31:57] Yeah I don't so I Do cover Shopify I've been really impressed with them I don't know them as well as I know Amazon but I've been super impressed. With them and terms of the product development and they are just providing more and more services to small Merchants so I think there's an are now bigger than eBay in terms of GM vo but I can never there's not enough disclosure to figure out so where's that GM D coming because I think some of that probably does come through eBay so a little bit of double counting that goes on in there but it's really impressive what they've pulled together whether they can actually aggregate demand in a way that Amazon has I think that's I think that's unlikely I think that's a very hard thing to do it's possible they do have a shop app I just, yeah I guess that's the action question we often ask ourselves do you think you're going to use the shop app to shop. [32:45] I don't think so I don't think people are going to do that but you know if they can get enough people to do that boy they will have really they will have some really circled it that you know because they got the infrastructure okay they're talking about building out fulfillment and doing fulfillment for people and spending a billion dollars on it sorry my friends you're gonna have to spend a heck of a lot more than a billion if you if you really want to you know compete. Because the bar is getting higher it's not getting lower it's getting higher in terms of funeral the speed of delivery eBay learn this the hard way and so shockfights Memphis spend a lot more than that so anyway there's a lot of wonderful things about Shopify and I don't know whether if you listening to slammed on by if you think they can build up an aggregate an audience I don't think they can so does it make doesn't make it a slam dunk by it's it's you know it's a deep three point shot put it that way. And you're not Steph Curry. Jason: [33:41] I think we're going back to the basketball references in the book. Yeah it you know I tend to agree I'm not I don't think the shop app you know has attracted an audience that uses it for shopping yet it's a shipping trapping tracking app at the moment. But the it is funny like there are lots of companies that facilitate huge amounts of gmv so I think of like. Excuse me and Akamai is a. Is a CDN that's that used by almost every retailer to help help sell stuff right and so if you said well what's the CD the gmv of Akamai well it's bigger than Amazons. Um but that doesn't mean that Akamai can compete with Amazon so yeah I don't know. [34:28] I do want to go back to Amazon earnings just briefly because I you know I think a lot of the Slowdown is kind of a covid blip and I don't know if you ever think of it this way but. They're there their times in history when. It feels like the external factors aren't a big influence and and you know some companies perform really well and other companies struggle so you know there could be a year when you see Home Depot doing really well and lows struggling and you say. There's something special about Home Depot that I might be interested in investing in at the moment it feels like the external environment for retail is having a. [35:07] Sort of a consistent effect on everyone right and so you look at the industry average is you look at all of them is on Spears and they all have sort of the same shape of deceleration. That Amazon has so it's to me it's hard to attribute that to some. Some fundamental flaw in Amazon but there is one thing I noticed this quarter that it was interesting and I wanted to get your opinion about because I know as an investor you like seeing companies that have pricing power. And you know of course Amazon famously raise the price of prime a while back and seems like that was wildly successful this quarter. They've raised the price for grocery delivery there now charging ten dollar delivery fees even for Prime members. And then this week we saw that they made a pretty substantial increase to the cost of f ba which is you know the fundamental service used by almost all marketplace hours and they they just raise the price of that by like five percent and I'm curious do you look at that as a good sign that hey. They have pricing power and they're doing so well that they can command those prices or to me it's a potential warning sign because I feel like Amazon is so. Zealous an advocate of the flywheel in the flywheel is all about driving costs down to get scale up I just was surprised to see some of these like price increases in in you know. Especially grocery which isn't super mature yet. Mark: [36:33] Well I'm not sure really of the answer to your question Jason it's a it's a it's a really good thoughtful question on the on the groceries I think they raised it because the unit economics were just not working for them in terms of grocery delivery that's that's my guess they also you know yet to have that get to really crack the code on the grocery business and so I sort of see that as they tried it and it just can't right size the economics of they got to charge more for it so I read that kind of negatively what did the raising fees to sellers. But my guess is it's a mixture of things but it's largely driven that my guess is that this largely driven off of Just Rising. [37:17] You know Rising infrastructure costs have been rising shipping costs I mean Rising the two costs that they called out specifically on the earnings call my recall is correct is our steel costs because of all of that dish construction they're doing with their fulfillment centers and trucking services and so my guess is that they've they're doing is not necessarily the right size the economics is I think the economics are working but because they want to try to keep their unit economics relatively intact. And that's sort of the way I think they thought about the raising the price of prime it wasn't they did it because they could. It's they did because they sort of had to like the costs are rising it's just that what I found interesting in terms of pricing power is van acceleration in in Prime ads you know post that price increase like that and so does Netflix to me Netflix is essentially raise fees use the fees to you know generate more Revenue by more content is like a flywheel that they've worked with their make the service more bringing more users allows them to get a little bit raised money just a little bit more so it's not so much raising fees to extract excess profits it's raising fees to further accelerate growth and the value proposition is strong enough that they can do that and not lose customers that's that's that that there's this is subtle nuance and maybe it's too salty but but I think it's an important it's important difference it's not it's no it's raising pricing not to raise margins it's raising pricing to fuel growth. [38:46] And when you so either way it's good I happen to think you you want to the the better one is the latter one is a more impressive the latter one is more impressive because you're raising pricing just to Goose your margins you know you just put a Target on your back. Scot: [39:03] Reading the book made me nostalgic and maybe we'll do a little bit of a lightning round but one of the companies you wrote about that I kind of forgot about and those interesting was Zulily I remember when they came on the scene and we were all like. They were all blown away by how fast they could just get product up right they had this thing where they could. They could have most of those kids so they'd get like all these little kid models in there and throw some clothes on them take a picture and then like changed outfit take another so they could do something like you know thousand different products an hour or something. What's your recollection on Zulily. Mark: [39:40] She really is that was one of my calls that didn't work and. So I and I learned some lessons from that I think to me the lesson I drew a to do with value proposition they had wonderful cohort disclosure in their S1 when they went public I mean it was truly impressive. And you know the they also raise kind of an analytical question because the first it's not too dissimilar to stitch fix today the first three or four million customers were extremely happy the question is. Were there another three to four million customers that could be extremely happy and the problem that Zulily faced is that it customer value proposition had one major flaw which is that you couldn't return product if you didn't like it they didn't they didn't accept returns oh I'm sorry there were two problems and there was no Speedy Delivery you know you could get stuff in seven days and 20 days. That was good for the first day of the first three to four million customers who are fine with that you break into the mainstream and you mean I can't return something if I don't like it you mean I gotta wait how many days until I get something like that ended up. [40:45] And it was very hard being the survey you really had to go with gut instinct on that to realize in advance that they were going to hit a wall in their growth. Geez when you saw what happened to their growth rate when they went public it was Triple digits six quarters later they were doing 10 percent Revenue growth they hit the wall because the value proposition. Wasn't strong enough and then they end up going going private that to me was kind of a lesson which is you know the. [41:10] Growth was impressive but that value proposition if it's not if they hadn't they didn't have it nailed down and you knew from the beginning I knew from the beginning what the two Falls were I just I didn't know when it would hit them and hit them earlier than I thought so you know it gives us another reason to really focus on how compelling do you think this value proposition is how many you know will that can the can a customer base double given the existing value prop. And that's one of the big lessons if I spin it a little bit I mean that's to me is and Scott you look through this entire history like you know the first decade of the internet the king of online retail wasn't Amazon it was eBay and they had like six times seven times the market cap of Amazon that's completely changed and why is it change and I think in part it's because of the value prop I mean Amazon just beat him on price selection and convenience year in and year out and that really mattered but a more recent example in my book. [42:02] In literally and figuratively is doordash and GrubHub and that's example many people will will know but grub have that great business model wonderful investor Centric business model High margins and doordash had this you know generating tons of losses but they had the better value prop because they had more restaurants selection and the end of the day that they want and they were able to scale up and generate serve reasonable profits over time that was the case where my quick tag line is you know customer-centric companies. Beat investor Centric companies most of the time in market cap and market share Amazon versus eBay, GrubHub versus doordash those two examples really drilled that less than to me. Jason: [42:48] Yeah I've been fighting those companies because you know there. They're like increasingly overlapping with a lot of my Commerce clients and like you know a big. A big sort of disruption and commerce right now is all these ultra-fast delivery services and you know it seems pretty clear that doordash and Uber are both gonna want to play directly in that space so it seems like some of those those sectors are on a collision course to chase that Tam. Mark: [43:15] I think you're right Jason I also think Amazon I mean you're talking about logistics like that's Amazon's competency so whether you need to. Whether you're going to vertically integrate and do that or whether you going to do that virtually you know Foo you know a gig economy Network. I don't know which which is going to work better long-term but yeah and you know it's going to raise the bar and make it more and more expensive for anybody to operate in that in that segment I have a bias that Amazon in the end wins that but it's big enough of a market it's so early stage that you can have multiple winners for the next five years I don't know that you can have multiple winners for the next 10 years. Jason: [43:56] Yeah there was a funny question in the Amazon earnings call someone asked about ultra-fast delivery in the CFO kind of I thought brilliantly threw some shade on it he's like. He said something to the effect of we like where we are and ultrafast like we have one hour delivery on about 178,000 skews right now and we're you know we're going to continue to scale that and I don't know how many people follow this but all of the competitors in this space are are desperately trying to figure out how to do one hour delivery for like 7000 skus. So so like they're you know they definitely are gonna be able to leverage the infrastructure there and I'm sure they're making some big investments in that space too. Another area that's that's been kind of interesting lately and I know you've been following this little bit is obviously there are all these privacy changes and the depreciation of the third-party cookies and especially the IDF a you know mobile privacy changes. That Apple has instituted and that obviously had a pretty pronounced impact on the value of some companies like Snap recently A View you have a opinion there is that. Is that a blip or is that a systemic change. Mark: [45:08] I think it's a big pothole in the road. But it's not there but the but the it's a big pothole in the road but it's not a bridge that it's not a collapsed bridge that get that mountain out. Yeah so poor that hey yes. Yes it is yeah that's it that's pretty I mean that's a big pothole that idea Fay allowed Facebook to offer amazing attribution to millions and millions and millions of businesses and now that's gone and and and to their credit to Facebook's credit they warned about it for a year two snaps discredit they didn't warn about it ever and so that's why their stock went off you know 22 decline 25 percent whereas Facebook stock even the numbers came in weaker than expected you know kind of fell off to the 3% and by the way then is traded up above where it was at earnings time so what I mean very intrigued by is I think it will be a son of that idea of a. [46:12] You know child of idea say I like I think there's so much at stake here both from the advertising platforms like Facebook you know and Google's to some extent a little bit and Snapchat but also for you know the millions of marketers out there who you don't you were able to thank thanks to Facebook use of people's privacy data you know from right or wrong I mean that's what that's what they they did I mean this help Merchants really know which of their campaigns worked and allow them to you know run creative and that creative could be automatically you know a be tested abcdefgh like 8 times 8 different ways in which ever those creatives work best. You could actually beat successful one of them then you can just pivot all of the dollars behind that one campaign you know campaign h for campaign be your campaign e.e. and that's just a wonderful way to help these small businesses you know really succeed and that's been taken away now you know there's I think there's first a little bit of shock shoot I can't get the attribution I had I'm going to pull a my marketing dollars but marketers got a market. [47:13] And I think you're going to see those dollars come back and my guess is that Facebook and other companies are going to find some way to do. Better targeting they may not quite get to idea that a type of levels but they were going to be able to do some sort of audience targeting they also have a lot of first-party data but they'll be able to do it in a way that doesn't that you know respect people's privacy and yeah you'll see those dollars come back so that's why I referred to as a pothole I it's a big pothole it's but it's not that it's not a bridge that just collapsed you know you're going to be you can they can they got stuck in that pothole more than anybody else but you know the cranes there whatever they're getting a tow trucks they're they're getting out of it they got to do some nobody work they'll fix the car and it'll be back on the road in part because they've got the talent to do it but in part because there are millions of small businesses that are given to going to give them the incentive to do it because they'll get those marketing dollars back once they figure out some of the idea that a. Jason: [48:09] Yeah I always like to remind people that are like The Skys Falling on the advertising industry that you know. It wasn't very long ago that we had much worse targeting than than we have in digital even with idea of a I mean targeting used to be deciding which publication you were going to print your ad in. And they still got a lot of money in the advertising industry so like I kind of suspect that that marketers are going to figure out you know the best ways to invest their money even if it maybe isn't quite as. As real-time as people got used to for a short while. Mark: [48:42] I think you're right Jason. Scot: [48:45] So Mark you in the book you recap kind of this awesome 25-year career and you know one of the things I've learned is if you're in the game of making predictions you know that it's kind of humbling but then you kind of slowly but surely get better at it right you never get to kind of you know a hundred percent but over time you get better and like like for example you learned the lesson of. The companies that are customer focused to do better than investor focused think founder based in that kind of as you as you take those backward 25-year learnings and project them forward what are some of the things that you get excited about looking out the next five or ten years. Mark: [49:23] Well in terms of Trends even the next year or two I think whoever solves. Marketing attribution is going to be worth a lot more in two years than they are today just because there's so many businesses so many marketers that will pay for that. So I you know so that's that's kind of a debt that whoever whoever fills in the pothole that's going to be a very valuable company it's going to be a lot more valuable to years and it is today my guess is that there's gonna be Facebook so I'm interested in that then there's thing this thing called The Medic verse which I don't know this is just virtual reality just renamed do a Google Trends search on metaverse just watch that just spiked up in the last love so you know you kudos to the person who came up with that idea may be excited maybe Jason or Scott maybe was you I. Jason: [50:09] It's just a rebranded second life. Mark: [50:12] Okay and. But but you know the fact that it was two things that kind of struck me there's some pretty big companies throwing a lot of big money at metaverse you know Facebook Microsoft there's a bunch of others and then there's this Roblox generation people young people who are perfectly comfortable living in the meta verse in virtual reality and. [50:38] You know participating in concerts safely and you know and shopping and communicating and entertaining and learning. [50:49] And learning through the metaverse and so you know we knows 8 18 year olds you know get out into the real world you know they're going to be perfectly comfortable in the meadow verse maybe not the way you know not the way that we will naturally be but you know though they'll help us figure it out and so so I'm really intrigued by the metaverse I think it is going to take 5 to 10 years because that to really develop and I'm trying to trying to figure it out who the big winners are but but I'm very intrigued by that. [51:18] Yeah I'm also got one of those oculist you know I've gotten two different versions Generations the it's the iterations of the Oculus Rift and you know i-i've always it's kind of like when I first saw the Kindle you know the first Kindle I ever got was pretty darn kludgy but you know I just love the idea that you could just download any book on the your kludgy device will you know whenever you whenever you were in a Wi-Fi area and and I and you and you just saw how that device got better and better each iteration and so I just think about that with these with these virtual reality headsets I mean they're clumpy their clunky their kludgy it's kind of embarrassing to be have a picture of you taking them but you know just you can imagine already know how much they've improved over the last couple of years and just think ahead is it possible the next five to seven years it's going to be just it's going to be like putting on a pair of sunglasses I think that's what we should be thinking about if you can easily put on a pair of sunglasses and and enter the metaverse and have you know share a virtual you know in presence experience that sounds but that sounds odd or not but you can do that, I think a lot of people will do that and you know the education the work applications around that so I'm very intrigued by that. Jason: [52:28] So you're saying that that could be chewy.com to Google Glasses pets.com. Mark: [52:36] Yes yes I love that yes I hadn't thought about that way yeah and by the way I've got my Google Glass here you know I'm. Got that I got that early version I got the Amazon Fire Phone you know but just be the the early failures sometimes see these I mean they're kind of in the right direction I don't know exactly what there's a there's a backstory to Google Glass that we only partially know but anyway they have the concept is there and and you know the big iterations that these products do get better and as they get better easier cheaper lighter cooler you know like Main Street cooler not Silicon Valley cooler then then markets can appear. Scot: [53:17] I think that's something the three of us have in common I think the three of us are probably the only people that ordered and probably still own an Amazon Fire Phone. Jeff Ellis. Mark: [53:29] And I've Got My Socks.com puppet to it's in my office I put the hits I got it as a warning. Scot: [53:31] I have one of those too yeah we all I guess we all have one of those too. Jason: [53:36] That that puppet ended up being the most valuable asset from pets.com sidenote like I don't know if you followed it but there was there was there was a whole intellectual property fight with Triumph the comedy dog and all that stuff yeah. Unattended value unintended value creation. Scot: [53:53] Mark were you you know we've used up about an hour of your time we really appreciate you coming on the show to tell us about the book when's it come out where can people find it do you do you want them to order from that Seattle bookstore that we've been chatting about. Mark: [54:09] So yeah and thanks Scott Jason I've always enjoyed listening to your show I did tell you it beginning I your analysis recently all birds and Warby Parker I took the heart because I initiated Warby Parker as an analyst but I after after I've seen what your thoughts were on it. So thanks for having me on the show and to talk about the book nothing but Net 10 Timeless stock-picking lessons from one of wall Street's top Tech analyst I just like to nothing but net on a big Hoops fan. And my kids are hoops and that's been my email pack lines there's a lot of meaning for me in that that title it is available wherever fine literature is sold it is available on Amazon it's the it's a top bestseller now and in the business category so I've been I've been just it was just a it was a labor of love for me and throw like a chance to talk with both of you about it because you've lived through the sister just as much as I have and it's fascinating the lessons we can draw from. Jason: [55:01] Well Mark is been entirely our privilege and it's a great sign that you know just halfway through your career you had enough material for an amazing book so I can't wait to read the the sequel after the next half. Mark: [55:13] All right I will talk with will do it again in 25 years. Jason: [55:18] I'm booking it right now. Scot: [55:20] Bring our sock puppet are and pets.com puppets in our Amazon Fire Phone. Mark: [55:24] That's. Jason: [55:25] Yeah everyone else will be living in the metaverse at that point in no one's going to get it but it's cool. But Mark really appreciated your time and until next time happy commercing!
Happy Thanksgiving!I am super excited to learn more about cryptocurrency from our guest today, Joel Clelland! Joel is the CEO at Centric, which is a digital currency company making strides in the cryptocurrency industry. With over 20 years of extremely diverse career experience, Joel is able to find creative ways to innovate and develop his company. I'm super excited to learn more about his entrepreneurial journey, improve my understanding of how digital/decentralized currencies work and, in what ways this will impact the GenZ future. To Read the Transcript and for Links in this Episode please visit:https://www.whyfimatters.com/post/all-things-cryptocurrency-for-teens-ft-ceo-of-centric-joel-clelland Support the show (https://www.patreon.com/whyfimatters)
Anurag Shah, VP and Head of Products and Services at Newgen Software discusses Content-Centric digital transformation. Listen as we explore some of the key capabilities and techniques that help enable a content-centric approach and how can we use “content” as a construct to accelerate digital transformation and make a real difference in organizational performance. Host, Kevin Craine Do you want to be a guest?
Rarible is a creator-centric, community-governed NFT issuance and marketplace platform that empowers users to buy, sell, or create digital art and collectibles secured within the blockchain. Today's guest is its co-founder and Head of Product, Alex Salnikov. Alex chats with Jeff Kelley, Eathan Janney, and Josh Kriger on how they're creating a space that will make NFT more sustainable and more accessible to more people. Easy buttons and lazy minting are ushering in the next generation of NFT users, and Rarible is a major part of this wave. Plus, Alex discusses an exciting partnership with Adobe that makes it easier for creators to create and verify ownership of NFTs. The group also touches upon what's hot, including Quentin Tarantino's Pulp Fiction NFTs and possible intel regarding Logan Paul and Gary Vee.
In this episode, we are joined by Dr. Denise Brown, Chief Growth Officer at Vituity, to discuss how health systems are adapting their long term strategy to consider virtual care, the gaps present where patients are lacking access to quality, affordable care, how to address these gaps, and more. This episode is sponsored by Vituity.
Nelson is the author of Death of the SDR, Birth of Buyer Centric Revenue. In this episode we talk about the downfalls of Predictable Revenue in modern sales and marketing and the merits of Buyer Centric Revenue by comparison. You can find Nelson on LinkedIn and his book on Amazon.
We all worry or get upset from time to time. It's simply a normal part of life. Sometimes these emotions take over and you can't calm down. Being able to calm yourself in the moment of panic is often easier said than done - as we probably all know by now. So, in this episode, Phoenix will be sharing how she has learned to take a breath when she is feeling worked up. Instead of stressing out and getting carried away, she recognizes the blessing that may be on its way. For show notes, resources, and more, visit: https://www.saywharadio.com/listen/lifeasp/
In this episode, Hallie talks to Tracy Tran, DDS about her dental approach to airway-centric early intervention. They discuss the need and importance of obtaining a functional assessment, modalities of treatment, frenectomy aftercare and most common reasons for reattachment following frenectomy. They discuss the importance of working as a team of disciplines, from the dentist to the SLP or OT specialized in feeding to other key players on the treatment team. The earlier the team can intervene, the better!Please click here to download the show notes.For more episodes visit www.untetheredpodcast.com See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.
SHR # 2785:: Testosterone replacement in aging men: evidence-based patient-centric study - Daniel Bossa - The deluge of advertisements marketing erectile dysfunction medications and testosterone products has empowered many older men to seek medical help for their sexual and genitourinary problems. As a reflection of this historical transition toward increased attention on men's sexual health, men's health clinics have sprung up across the United States; concomitantly, testosterone prescription sales increased from about $100 million US dollars in the year 2000 to nearly $2.7 billion in 2013. Today, a majority of testosterone prescriptions are written for men aged 40–64 years (1) even though testosterone is not approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for age-related decline in testosterone. Citing the lack of data on long-term benefits and risks of testosterone treatment in older men with age-related decline, the FDA has sounded alarm over the growing off-label use of testosterone. Experts have debated whether prescribing testosterone to older men with testosterone deficiency is disease mongering or whether subsets of older men with testosterone deficiency might benefit from testosterone treatment. Fortunately, several recent randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have provided important information on the efficacy and short-term safety of testosterone treatment in older men. This Viewpoint synthesizes data from epidemiologic studies and RCTs and offers a perspective on a patient-centric approach to treatment decision in older men with testosterone deficiency based on an individualized assessment of benefits and risks.
EP279 - Amazon, EBay, Shopify Q3 Earnings In Episode 257 we talked about IDFA and the impact of privacy and digital ads, and then on Episode 277 we talked about Supply chain pain (SupplyPain™). Now that we're in Q3 earnings season we're seeing those themes play out. This week we dive into the earnings calls from Snap, eBay, Shopify, and Amazon. We also discuss the Rent the Runway IPO. Episode 279 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Thursday. October 28th, 2021. http://jasonandscot.com Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. Transcript Jason: [0:00] Welcome to the Jason and Scot show this is episode 279 the Halloween edition being recorded on Thursday October 28 2021 I'm your host Jason retailgeek Goldberg and as usual I'm here with your co-host Scot Wingo. Scot: [0:18] Hey Jason happy Halloween. Jason: [0:21] Happy Halloween to you too Scott are you a big Halloween guy I kind of imagine you are. Scot: [0:26] Am I like to dress up but once my kids became teenagers that was suddenly not cool so I haven't been dressing up since probably for probably like the last few years so. If you dress up for your son enjoy it while you can. Jason: [0:42] Come over and spend it with us Steven is happy to be your dress up beard. Scot: [0:47] Yeah he would have a Darth Sidious outfit and work to the channel visor Christmas party and scared all the look it's so so I don't do that with five and under. Jason: [0:59] Yeah you probably weren't invited back to your own company's Halloween party. Scot: [1:03] Yeah well a lot of times the wives didn't know that I was so sorry. Jason: [1:06] Yeah but the other way to think about it is that it's Christmas in October both because retailers are desperately trying to pull holiday sales and but also because Apple finally release the new Macbook Pros that you and I have been waiting for. Scot: [1:20] Yeah yeah we had some Getty conversations about that you've got the new chips and yeah and you know the Apple, the Apple launch events have gotten kind of weirder and weirder with covid like now it's like you know Tim standing in a Tim Cook standing in a giant corn field then the the camera flies around like a crow and so so those have been kind of fun to watch just for the theatrics of they're going through. Jason: [1:47] Yeah yeah no the production like despite the fact that it's all pre-recorded and stuff and you know the the production value is pretty high I I'd like to see him go the other way it should be like Tim Cook in his pj's in his kitchen being like Oh and we invented a new chip. Scot: [2:02] I miss Johnny I've saying aluminium this my favor. Jason: [2:05] Yes and as you may know aluminium is dramatically more expensive than aluminum. Scot: [2:11] Yeah and chamfered edges. Jason: [2:13] Yeah all that's gone now it's just a chunk of aluminium but I'm excited to get mine I have a little jealousy because I feel like we both ordered early on launch day and I think yours already shipped is that true. Scot: [2:29] Yeah it's somewhere on a plane from Shanghai right now I hope according to the the tracking number we'll see. Jason: [2:36] Nice nice I will be excited for your unboxing and I half expected that when you jumped on the, the conference call to record this one that you'd be wearing like a Versace like jogging suit or something because my my Google Alerts have blown up this week because get spiffy is on fire. Scot: [2:56] Yeah yeah we had a big week it's few we announced our Series be fundraising so that was a lot of fun, I think I had a record LinkedIn post I think I had something like 300 comments and so those those good it's always. Yeah it's been a kind of a crazy 18 months for us and I can definitely commiserate with our retail folks that are going through harder times now we had those common being the pandemic but got through and. It's been crazy we've since March our business has grown like eighty percent so it's been like this crazy post covid-19, perfect storm for for Mobile Car Care Bears, you have no one can hire anybody but we've been able to kind of squeak that out and then no one can get new vehicles so they're running their vehicle Vehicles longer, they don't have anyone to take them to brick-and-mortar service centers they don't have mechanics to hire so they call us if so that's been it's been a lot more fun than this time last year. Jason: [3:54] That that is awesome I'm going to assume the one slight negative is you get some good news like that you get all those those post cooking on LinkedIn and I'm assuming, every vendor under the planet has I read your news and is now pitching you for something. Scot: [4:10] Yes yeah I try to forward them all to you because, there's a lot of Executive coaching out there available that you know maybe you could use a lot of video stories a lot of AI chatbots you know I don't know how on Earth we have, the world can sustain at least a thousand AI chatbots but there are a lot of those out there yeah when trick is someone told me, if you put an emoji in your name on LinkedIn the Bots pick it up or get confused by it so that that helps give me an automatic filter so if someone kind of uses that emoji when they're kind of like hey Scott and that you know they put the Emoji then you know that it's a bot so that I just delete. Jason: [4:54] Oh my God this episode of the podcast is now like officially worth it just for that that's a pro tip. Scot: [5:00] Life hacks yeah I'm here for LinkedIn life hacks that's my that's my speciality that and saying aluminum. Jason: [5:08] Those are all good skills but congratulations I know it's non-trivial ever to get people to have their trust in you and invest and then in this climate in particular I'm sure. It was a rigorous process. Scot: [5:25] Thanks thanks and we actually added the folks at Goodyear Ventures so shout out to them I think some of their e-commerce folks listen to the show so appreciate their support. Jason: [5:34] Nice A wise choice in podcast as well so any e-commerce stuff you follow this week. Scot: [5:42] Well it has been probably one of the more interesting weeks in the land of e-commerce for a while so listeners will remember that you know. We were recording this in October so this is always an interesting time to read what's going on in the Q3 results which kind of sets us up for Q4. So we always pay particular attention during this time of year. But if blisters remember back in March of this year you and I I would like to say and I think if we voted on this would be unanimous we're basically Clairvoyant Nostradamus level of predicting things. You and I both kind of felt like the industry wasn't taking this idea if a the Apple privacy changes coming to both iOS what is it 14.5 and then later 15 added some more. It didn't seem like anyone was taking that as seriously as you and I kind of felt like it was going to hit him so he did a really big deep dive on that that's one of our more popular episodes that's 257. And then into 77 you and I again being The Clairvoyant Wonders that we are we started talking about the supply chain being way worse than folks thought it were in coined Supply pain. So we are now starting to see those two things Collide in really interesting ways that I don't. [7:02] You know I think our guesses that those would be bigger than people thought on it came true so let's walk through what that. The first one was Snapchat so they we don't usually cover them on the show but I think it kind of sets the tone here they started off their earning Seasons last week Thursday on the 21st, and they just totally whiffed on their expectations and I thought it would read this little segment from from one of the Wall Street. [7:30] Analyst. While snap was clear that changes have not impacted the efficacy of their advertising iOS 14.5 is limiting direct response advertisers ability to measure and optimize campaigns on Snapchat. Leading to reduce spending on the platform specifically the update was pushed to users in July blah blah blah blah and it restricts the advertisers ability to use their measurement tools. So basically used to be able to measure what was going on in Snapchat and you know and because it's in an app and that's largely the use cases inside of the app for advertisers they have no idea. Traffic is converting or not so that's not good especially, you know and then advertisers are into buckets you know this but just for listeners there's brand advertisers were just kind of top of the funnel building awareness in just really trying to be seen and what not, and then there's more direct response where you're really trying to measure you know I'm selling in Snapchat Maps I'm a convenience store and I want people to come in and get a slice of, and I'm measuring that conversion that just went away so that big segment of advertisers is very upset. And what Apple did is they offered this alternative I don't know the right way to say this but it's their own ad that work how do you how do you say. [8:47] Gad Network Scott ad Network I don't know I'm going to call it apples ad network but that's not the official name. So Apple said okay don't worry everyone we're going to do this privacy thing over here but we're going to give you these little tool sets so that your advertisers can see what's going on. Well those things really stink worse than anyone I ever imagined because you know they. Because they're super anonymised you have to have you have to be at this really big scale so if you're kind of a micro let's say you're not 7-Eleven your Joe's convenience store, well in Des Moines Iowa well you're never going to have enough data in there to give you anything so so it doesn't work for this vast segments of advertisers I think everyone was surprised by that, then if it does work the reporting is delayed as much as 72 hours so it's like what happened last Thursday kind of thing, so it's just a total train wreck and then on top of that to kind of pile on, snap said in addition a bunch of their brand advertisers turned off because, they just don't have any products they can sell because of the supply chain problems so so it was a double whammy for snap and the stock Plum old plummeted like, 10% the first day and has continued to slide and so it's down 20 percent as of now so that was that got everyone really squirrelly and spooked out. [10:16] What is your take on the Snapchat side. Jason: [10:18] Yeah no I mean you I think you covered it really well like in general there has been a trend where more ad dollars are shifting to more of those direct response ads so the fact that like that's the. [10:31] The side of advertising that got diminished was like extra severe because you know people were generally trying to spend more money at the bottom of the funnel than, then they had in the past these digital, platforms and especially after Google and Facebook they the bulk of their advertisers are the long tail Advertiser so they tend to be smaller people that are more impacted by these sort of like cohort models that, the Apple and Google are trying to use, um and I would just say like there is a funny thing here like the attribution always sucked and it best it's this last click attribution someone saw your ad clicked on it and then bought the thing. And so therefore your ad was worthwhile you never will know if you would have sold the thing, without that add right and they may very well have like type your name into a platform that then showed your ad right above your organic listing and. You know the the ad kind of stole the click right so. So you know there always is this dirty little secret that like attribution is not the same as incrementality. And you know now like these advertisers that used to be able to justify their spend are having a harder time because of these numbers but the other thing is mucking up is about 73% of all these digital ads are programmatically bought so. [11:56] Computer program buys it and guess what the most important impart inputs are for that programmatic algorithm its, those those ads success metrics so the fact that is delayed 72 hours it's not just an inconvenience that you know someone buying an ad isn't going to see a report for a couple days, it means you can't do this real-time bidding based on like you know hitting particular row as goals and things like that with your at so, it is a mess I would just say you know snap and Facebook you know used to be a huge competitive advantage that the bulk of their user base was in this mobile app and you know the fact that everything happened in the app was a huge benefit and now it's. It's unfortunately for them sort of biting them in the in the butt. Scot: [12:40] So so that got Wall Street very much awake about this issue and many of the reports were like we just don't know how bad Q4 is going to be because, you know iOS 15 is now out and it increasingly has turned the crank on privacy this one is really more around the efficacy of email marketing, but if you're if you're a brand you have you know and used to do a ton of direct response advertising and snap and, you know you're doing a bunch of email marketing you've just had two legs of the stool kind of taken out from underneath him so. This got Wall Street very worried a lot of the stocks kind of reacted and then that was kind of the set up this week so then we hit Monday of this week, and Facebook was next up and everyone was like losing their mind because if you think about Snapchat is largely used through the app on phones same is similarly true Facebook at least has some desktop traffic. But I believe snap doesn't have any it's just an app yeah it's got to be snap. [13:41] Sermons like okay this is going to be bad but how bad so Facebook came out and they miss their consensus numbers but they were in range with what they had kind of guided to so I wear a snap kind of thing just totally blew up everything. And then they also kind of lowered going into the fourth quarter and so there was kind of a little bit of collective sigh of relief that was like who that wasn't as bad as we thought it would be. [14:08] And they kind of said oh yeah and also we're going to change our name so everyone's like what, okay but then they did they didn't change their name at that particular time so that was kind of weird, so everyone is kind of like what is this and you know they are obsessed with this idea of the metaverse we should probably do a deep dive on this at some point but this this idea that, you know you'll kind of be able to go in and out of the seamless 3D World either with augmented reality or virtual reality and, Jason I love to talk about this future things but don't have time to get into it here, so everyone was like okay that wasn't so bad and then on Wednesday both eBay and Google announced Google surprise to the upside and, you know I believe this is because they are they own a phone platform they own a browser, so in this new world of third-party data kind of going away they're in a pretty good position because they have a lot of first-party data. Now they do have some exposure you know especially through like their ad networks and stuff but they were able to mitigate that through the bulk of their other activities. [15:18] So so that was interesting and then reading that report one thing they actually called out was that they one of the segments that was stronger than anticipated was the kind of called it e-commerce and that encapsulates. The traditional Google shopping that most merchants and brand folks will know, but then they talked about how they're having their starting to see a fair amount of success on YouTube and it wasn't clear to me I was going to ask you it wasn't clear to me what exactly they were talking about their they didn't they didn't elaborate, no is it live streaming is it some product, I think you can send a feed into YouTube now and how things bought through there so I wanted to pick your brain on that Google aspect of. Jason: [16:01] Yeah no it is getting a lot of traction and it's a there's a family of AD products on YouTube called YouTube shoppable ads and it. It's less about live streaming there's a tiny little bit of it on YouTube that's why I've streaming but it's it's being able to embed clickable links in video streams and then add pre-rolls for other people's video streams, the let you endemically buy a product and so the and the. You know the the amount of volume on those kind of add products versus like a product listing add on Google searches lower, um but the efficacy is much higher and the growth rate is is much higher so people are consuming a ton of minutes of a video on the YouTube platforms and you know now we're starting to see. Tangible examples of being able to convert those audiences into buyers so that's that's kind of interesting but it's less live streaming and more. Sort of you know embedded links in the video that that either do an endemic check out on YouTube or send you to a Retailer's e-commerce site. Scot: [17:15] Yeah yeah I definitely want to dig into that maybe we could do a deep dive on another show and kind of look at some of these cases I think it's interesting so then everyone was like holy cow this is this is awesome Google did great and then eBay announced and their their results are kind of what I would call, Punk they're just kind of like yeah you know they they weren't terrible like Snapchat and one of the nursing things is Snapchat set the bar so low that people missing consensus kind of was like, almost like a hooray it was a really weird setup I've never seen anything quite like it so it's kind of an interesting result there, so you know being being not terrible as kind of the new win oddly enough, so there gmv was down 12 percent year over year because of these tough comps, and you have a picture maybe we can talk about where you know you see this mountain last year of, do the pandemic and now women's comping against that mountain and a lot of folks especially, Pure Play anyone Pure Play retail they're not able to compliments that they're coming down their growth has slowed below to kind of where that mountain of growth was last year and eBay has fallen into that trap. [18:26] They did spend a lot of time on the call and I thought this was, Clairvoyant of you that kept talking about comping against 2019 so kind of a two year ago comp because that takes the pandemic out and makes you look better when you take that big mountain of a year Outlast in kind of in the sandwich of, the 2019 in the 2021 and when you do that they were up 9 percent so they felt like that was kind of when I don't know about that. Jason: [18:51] Yeah if you do a word cloud of all the the earnings calls this quarter two years ago will be the biggest phrase on the word cloud. Scot: [19:02] So then today was interesting because the setup was and I don't think this is ever lined up like this so in the morning we had Shopify and then in the evening we had Amazon, and when you when you when you're a public company you have to you can't you can't announce earnings while the markets open most people historically have done, you know after market close Shopify for some reason they like the morning, part of it is I think you don't compete with analyst for their time because sometimes these internet analyst. You know like on that night we had Google and eBay they'll go to the what'll happen is they'll see the press release and I'll have to decide which one of the calls they're going to go to. And they'll say they all go to Google well now you're the eBay folks in your like does anyone have a question and it's crickets and there's no Wall Street analyst. It's kind of there because they're they're all over on the you're competing for their attention, so yeah so so it creates this interesting setup in that like around eight o'clock before the market opened 8 a.m. eastern Shopify announced and this one was really super squirrelly so. Shopify has been priced for Perfection for a very long time if you look at the various ways of measuring you know they're there. [20:18] Valuation against Revenue multiples of Revenue or ibadah or any of that and you look at a chart there always way up in the upper right hand corner just way off the charts and how Wall Street has valued the. So you know so they actually came in below expectations pretty considerably on the top and bottom line. But again because of that weird Snapchat has Snap Chat setup. It was viewed as a victory which is kind of really strange because I would have guessed. Because Shopify has been so price for Perfection they were kind of set for like a ten to twenty percent correction and then you know they would get back on track, but no they were like up 8% by by missing their numbers says like super strange reaction I don't hundred percent understand. So so I think what it indicates is that folks you know Wall Street was like really worried about it because, again they don't have a ton of they're there their merchants, largely our advertising that could be like a set of these these Snapchat advertisers or they're on Facebook and those guys had headwinds and it just felt like it would be natural for them to face. [21:28] So just put some numbers on it their revenue grew 46 percent year over year and Wall Street expectation was 54% I think this may be part of it too right because, this dismiss is still, pretty pretty good compared to some of the other numbers we just went through right so a 46% grower missing 54% expectations during these tough comps has as it's not hard to shed a tear on that. [21:53] Now they did they did kind of danced around i d f a and supply chain and and for the first time that I'm aware of the client to put out a consensus like an estimate for next year and they kind of talked about a framework. Um so I think and the other trick is if you think about it they're doing that call today which is the 28th right. So in their their digital business so they should have they have a kind of a read on the quarter so so I kind of felt like the body language was maybe that. They're not the setup in the queue for is maybe getting a little bit worse than Q3 but I may be reading too much into that so I thought that was interesting and then, they did talk about the supply pain, and then finally one of the big investment areas they called out for holiday is this Shopify fulfillment Network which I thought was interesting because I keep getting conflicting information on this where I've had people tell me they've got one thing in Canada and one of the US and they're tiny and they're not investing in it then on the call they're talking about how they're really investing in it so I don't I don't know what to make of that. Any takeaways from Shopify on your side. Jason: [23:02] Yeah well if you so first of all I have a personal theory that shopify's going to be more impacted by Supply pain than some of the other big players were talking about right and that's because, they don't, they're not a retailer they don't have any fulfillment they don't sell anything to Consumers they're just an aggregation of a ton of small businesses and there's none of those small businesses individually have any leverage our resources to hedge their supply chain problems whereas, Amazon and Walmart have a lot of levers and can buy ships and moved to different ports and do all kinds of different things to mitigate, the supply chain risks and so I I do think because they're predominantly small businesses that they're going to take a bigger hit from the supply chain disruptions then. Is Amazon so Point number one the, I looked at their gmv numbers and and I have to say like in general I'm a fan of Shopify I think they solve a real problem they do it really well I think they have a ton of growth opportunity, I think they've got a bunch of smart profitable. [24:14] Accelerator businesses that they've you know kind of added to the the core platform and the one I like the most is shop pay, and you know their own payment technology is now driving 50 percent of their whole gym V so they've done a terrific job of watching this this payment technology and getting incremental revenue from that and that's you know that's much more valuable than the, thirty bucks a month or two hundred bucks a month they get for hosting because as those the small businesses grow they get to grow with them and all sorts of good things so that's my precursor, um I hate it when people compare their gmv to Amazon and other retailers because it just it's not Apples to Apples. [24:56] Shopify is gmv mostly grows because they add a hundred thousand more small businesses that are each selling a hundred thousand dollars worth of stuff right and so it's, it's not like Shopify hasn't attracted any customer Shopify hasn't sold anything it's kind of like if you said well FedEx is gmv is bigger than Amazon's or ncr's GM V which is the cash register in Walmart and Best Buy and Starbucks is much bigger than Amazon like it is but who cares right like they like NCR didn't create any of that traffic so. Let me just say like there are all these numbers where their cumulative GMB is getting very significant it's over 400 billion their gym V4 last quarter was 41 billion so that puts them at like. Was that a hundred sixty billion run rate which you know is starting to get there as I like the fourth or fifth largest e-commerce site, um and I like I think that's a false narrative that always annoys me a little bit. Scot: [26:01] They had their on CNBC and they have this stat they like to do where it took them eight years to get to a hundred billion and then a year to get to the next hundred billion or something I forget the number but. Jason: [26:12] So one one side note that the thing that always drives me nuts about their gmv as they don't give you any breakdown about churn right so you don't know. Like is that because all the their original customers are thriving and growing and making their GM V much bigger or. Did they lose all of those customers because they went out of business but they got twice as many new customers we really haven't known in their investor presentation this time they did have a cohort graphic. The kind of and it didn't have any numbers on it and you know so it's kind of hard to interpret but like. It implied that they're all cohorts are a disproportionate amount of their revenue and that their turn is less than I personally suspected, so I actually will reach out offline to Professor Dan McCarthy and see if he wants to accept the challenge of trying, to reverse into some some churn numbers from those Graphics that they provided. Scot: [27:11] Yeah that the trick they do in the software as a service world is they'll take a section of customers cohort like you know, Q 1 2019 customers and then the look at the revenue from that cohort well you could lose like eighty percent of them but the 20% survivors if they go up you know if they have sizable gmv growth their revenue swamps the unit lost of 80% that my guess is that's what they're doing. Jason: [27:36] Yeah and it's still for everyone listening it still is wildly long tail like they in this investor presentation they have a list of like the there there big Enterprise logos and it's Jim shark. Which is a. You know probably one of the bigger digital native vertical Brands but you know not not a billion dollar retailer and it's Staples of Canada right and like Staples is a good brand Canada is smaller than California so like. You know it's not like they're they're you know taking these huge Enterprise sites yet. Scot: [28:12] On CNBC they talked about how they just once Banks and that didn't really resonate with me I just can't imagine I don't know maybe it's like a side maybe it's like an international side or something. Jason: [28:22] Yeah now and I do think they have a ton of I mean they have a ton of growth in North America but the international growth I feel like is you know, huge for them and then all these payment things and, and you know they partnered with with a firm so they have buy now pay later in their payment echo system and remember, like you can now use their payment system for transactions that are not on Shopify so it's an endemic payment option on Facebook now and so it's interesting like in the long run they could get out of the web hosting business in just you know be a bigger more profitable PayPal. Scot: [28:56] Yeah sidebar there is a lot of rumors that house going to buy Pinterest and largely driven by this IDF a where everyone's trying to if you're at the bottom of the direct marketing World funnel all those people because of idea of a an unintended consequence I didn't catch up to Wood is they're all trying to walk up the to the the first party data which would be by acquiring Pinterest set very interesting you know I would say we were early. Jason: [29:26] You put in this but they came out strongly and allege that that wasn't true. Scot: [29:32] Yeah well it's interesting to Think Through like you know I do think that a lot of firms are thinking about this because the idea of a is actually causing maybe even bigger ripples than I thought. Jason: [29:43] In my world the way that plays out is everybody is like so focused on the retail media networks right so selling ads on the retail properties where they do have first party data, and it's a it's a very good practice everyone should be doing it but like. The amount of attention it's getting right now like how hot it is in the market like is way bigger than the possible upside and so you get like. Every you know Clarin as a buy now pay later service like they have an ad Network right I just like just for the the you know like if you use the clarinet app too, to maintain your installment love there there's like ads in there that they're selling to to advertisers and a personal favorite is the gap and the reason that's funny is like most of these ad networks are selling to their in what they call endemic advertisers right so if, Procter & Gamble is selling Gillette razors at Walmart than Walmart will get Procter & Gamble to buy a jet razor ad on Walmart.com it makes perfect sense, um guess what there is not at the Gap in the endemic for its first it's all Gap product right so they've gotta like they're going to get Kanye to buy an ad I guess but um, you know they've got to sell to non-endemic advertisers which is a much higher bar so it just funny how. Right there is a huge rush to first-party data right now. Scot: [31:09] You get a network and or you get an ad Network it's like Oprah giving out ad Networks. [31:15] Okay so that brings us up to this evening when Amazon released so it feels like everyone had kind of. We have breathed a sigh of relief and I was like oh Amazon's going to crush it and then Amazon and if you remember last quarter Amazon kind of had a bit of a mellow kind of slight Miss quarter. And you know the stock if you look at these these kind of there's all these different names for it like Fang and all this stuff but these kind of Mega tech stocks, a lot of them have been moving pretty aggressively so Microsoft Facebook Apple Etc especially Tesla and then Amazon has been lagging the pack and usually they're the leader of the pack so, yeah I think a lot of people were expecting kind of a beat and a Amazon to really kind of take off because it's been under pressure. That didn't happen so they actually missed expectations the revenues came in at a hundred and ten point eight billion which was below the hundred fifteen point five billion so 15% year-over-year growth which is, you know a very uh name has on Nyan kind of a result now it's better than, eBay is minus 12 percent but then again Shopify and I know it doesn't count exactly because they're adding scene for sales but you could argue I guess so is Amazon's adding third parties in here too, so it was it was a bit slower than people thought in Q2 they grew 24 percent so another big step down. [32:44] A lot of this is. [32:47] They're Mountain last year really because they focus on so many essential items and Q2 they really didn't get a bump until Q 3 q 4 so there they're comping their Compass actually harder than maybe like an omni-channel or even in eBay just because of the focus of. You have sung mask and what they called kind of Emergency Essentials last year. They peel the onion and they have this one segment called online source and that was only a 3% for the third quarter and that was a deceleration from 13% in Q2. And then this rippled to the bottom line where operating income came in at four point nine billion which was well below the 5.5 billion consensus, so that's the bad news and there was some good news do you want to cover some of that. Jason: [33:35] Yeah and side note is there a new thing called like. Like you know there are always these I'd beat and raised like you know vernacular for like you know you beat the consensus and then you you raised your guidance I feel like there's a new thing it's missing grow where like you miss all your consensus numbers but your stock still goes up. Scot: [33:56] Yeah that Shopify totally nailed that one has come very strange but they did it. Jason: [34:00] Um so yeah some of the interesting things in the in the Amazon number. I like to break down those segments you hit the you know the big segments online retail and it obviously. Had a pretty slow rate of growth by Amazon standards but an interesting subset of that is physical stores right so Amazon's got. Eight different retail formats the bulk of them is 500 Whole Foods stores and historically Amazon's physical stores is the one segment that shrinks every quarter right so going back to Q2 of 2020. Physical stores went down Thirty thirteen percent and then 10% in Q3 and then 7% in Q4 and then 16 percent of in q1 of this year and we're just we just got used to seeing that number go down and we all thought it was going down for two reasons, number one Whole Foods was kind of a distressed asset when they bought it and they haven't really improved it in any meaningful way some people would say they've. Diminished it and so like it probably is shrinking and it's the bulk of their the retail sales but then. [35:09] What Amazon has done for Whole Foods is help them sell groceries online and then of course the pandemic help them sell a lot of groceries online, but ironically Amazon doesn't count those whole food online orders as whole food sales they're not physical sales that that those dollars get attributed to Amazon online and not to Whole Foods brick and mortar, so if there's a big. Shift in mix from shopping and store to ordering for home delivery from Whole Foods that actually hurts physical retail sales so for all those reasons we're used to seeing that number go down, last quarter it bounced up ten percent and then this quarter it bounced up 12% so, I have to be honest I'm not exactly sure what's going on their part of it is e-commerce had such a big growth last year that comparatively, read the the rate of retail growth has kind of accelerated brick-and-mortar growth has accelerated a little bit and the rate of e-commerce growth while still higher than brick and mortar has decelerated so that kind of mix, you know maybe as favorable for the way Amazon does accounting for these stores maybe some of the other store concepts are, starting to get more traction like the Amazon Fresh stores perhaps I don't know but. [36:24] It's interesting to see that number going north for the first time in recent memory, of course everyone always talks about AWS being the profitable segments so they sold 16 billion dollars of AWS which was 39 percent growth which was an acceleration and growth so again, that's been kind of growing at 30% of quarter and now you know last quarter at Route 37 and 39 this quarter, um that makes a lot of sense the pandemic drove a lot more people to the cloud and online so you know it's AWS is firing up. [37:00] And then going back to the ads I talked about how big a deal retail ad networks are Will by far the biggest retail ad network is Amazon and they somewhat derogatory to me like Calder the retail ad Network other sales in the in their, and so this was their biggest quarter ever they sold a billion dollars worth of ads for the quarter which is 49 percent growth which is. Actually a significant deceleration Q2 grew at 83 percent right so this number is growing really fast. But the way to think of this is if you add up the last four quarters of their ad sales they sold 30 billion dollars worth of ads if you add up the last four quarters of AWS they sold fifty seven billion dollars worth of server services. [37:51] Think about the cost for that 57 billion dollars worth of server Services they have a bunch of silicone they make their own chips they pay a ton of electricity and they pay rent and people in all this stuff. In order to deliver that aw s right so there's a lot of cost for it to get that fifty seven billion dollars worth of sales. The the the cost of those ads is near zero right like. It's very well and so 30 billion dollars in ad sales I guarantee you is more profitable than fifty seven billion dollars in in server capacity sales and so, like its I said this last quarter but it's even more clear now that the most profitable business that Amazon is now. Um this this ad Network and in their their their investor call and he's sort of address that and he talked about the fact that like hey, we don't really. [38:49] I think internally of breaking out retail sales versus ads versus Marketplace because they are inextricably linked they all need each other, um and you know together they're a super powerful flywheel but like you know they basically recognize that like. Yeah you know we could break even or lose money selling Goods. When we're making a fortune on the 30 billion dollars of ads that we get to sell because of those goods right and and all the seller services for the marketplace half of their sales so. Like you know the the myth that that the retail pirate of Amazon's business is not profitable or less profitable than things like AWS like I think is. Is getting even more exposed and again all those those those businesses AWS and ads are are growing quite healthily at the moment. Scot: [39:42] Yeah it's interesting Colin Sebastian who's a good friend of the show and it's been on many times he pointed out for the one of the interesting. Parts of this quarter is for the first time if you think about Amazon having two pieces of product business and a service business so a Services would be a WS ads, this thing they call merchant services which is kind of FBA and some of the marketplace Revenue goes in there and subscriptions that is now for the first time the revenue from those pieces that quote-unquote Services pieces is bigger than product revenues for the first time ever, and you see it in these numbers right so online stores celebrated a couple other things accelerated but AWS and ads accelerated so it's a really interesting time where that that that kind of Tipping Point happened inside of there. Jason: [40:35] Yeah yeah for sure and then two other takeaways from the earnings call that I thought were Jewels they got asked because you talked about. Advertisers on some of these other platforms like Snap slowing down because of Supply pain right if I don't have products in stock I probably shouldn't be advertising those products, so they got a spike is other going to take it in the shorts and Q4 because advertisers are going to cut back because of Supply pain. Um and Amazon's answer was no that they're not seeing, people getting back on on ads from supplied pain they said like what is likely Gonna Hurt our comps and add sales for Q4 of this year is that Prime day was in Q4 of last year and that there's a lot of, add activity that's driven by Prime day so they said like you know what car comps. Four ads in Q4 maybe not as strong as they ordinarily would be but it's going to be because of the shifting dates of prime day not because. Advertisers are slowing down which is interesting and again Amazon's attracting. The long tail and the the head advertisers whereas like Snap is mostly getting long tail advertisers so. I found that really interesting and then Amazon also said like what. [41:53] Supply chains going to be really challenging and as a result we are incurring a lot of incremental costs but they were very strong that it wasn't going to hurt their revenue number that it was going to hurt profitability, but they felt like they had enough levers to pull and pull those levers, to ensure that they both were going to have enough inventory and that they were going to have enough fulfillment capacity, to deliver on that so they were super confident there and what they call that they said the the. Impairment that's going to be the most hard for them to overcome this quarter is not inventory it's not Logistics it's labor, right and that's the one that they felt like was the hardest for them to overcome is they've got huge turnover they're trying to hire a bunch of people and the cost to hire them are just you know skyrocketing because there's you know constrained pool of people willing to work and, and they're able to command a lot more for their their labor right now. Scot: [42:50] Yeah Jesse basically said that they're getting back in he she basically said I want to remind everybody this is a second quarter a CEO that one we have to choose short-term profit over long term customer experience we will lose money for for we will invest in long-term customer experience, Wall Street that is like we're entering into one of these investment phases usually they get kind of excited by it because usually ratchets, the orbit Amazons in up in the profit kind of spills over after about 18 months or so but there really wasn't a lot of enthusiasm this time so that was interesting, and then you know I mentioned the operating profit was about 4 billion their forecast for 4th quarter of the actually they do you know unlike most companies right now that are just like we have no idea what the heck's going to happen when I put out a fourth quarter forecast Amazon did, and they basically said the bottom line it could be between zero and two billion well that was like you know again that that's a very strong signal they're going to be spending a lot of money in the billions. And in fact they add a little color and said we see several billion dollars of additional costs related to and they put them in this order labor shortages higher wages, Global Supply Chain issues ETC but then they said they still need to hire 250,000 people for holiday and they're going to do whatever it takes because they won't be able to deliver and execute unless they have them. Jason: [44:14] He used an interesting metaphor he said like. That you know they just decided it wouldn't be customer Centric or in their long-term interest to raise prices or fees, and so he's like we really think of ourselves as a shock absorber and we are going to take the hit on all of these incremental costs for both our customers and our Marketplace sellers, um because we think in the long term that's going to strengthen the flywheel so I mean he was pretty like the you know there was not a lot of subtlety about the fact that like. You know it's going to there's going to be a lot of incremental costs to win this holiday but they're going to win the top line and not worry so much about the bottom line. Scot: [44:56] What else did you get from the Amazon call. Jason: [44:59] Those those were the big things one other thing that's interesting to me is. You know everybody's struggling to figure out digital grocery right now and saw the unit economics but there's this other tidal wave behind that that will call ultra-fast delivery and we've talked about a little bit on the show but they're all these firms. Go puff most notably but Joker and gorilla and all these firms like coming out with these. 30 minute or 15 minute delivery promises for a constrained set of products and one of the analysts ask Amazon like. You've always done really well against the your traditional retail competitors in terms of, of logistics but are you worried at all about these guys that are being like purpose-built for like a speed that's faster than your usual service level and it got a pretty arrogant answered I would say he's like. We really like our model we have a hundred and seventy eight thousand skews right now that are available for two hour or faster delivery and that's a lot more excuse to a lot more consumers than any of those companies. It was it was you know like I think obviously that is a space Amazons going to watch closely in play in but the. What's almost happening is they're just ratcheting up the service level for so many products I'm like when I you know Chicago is a advanced market for Amazon but when I put stuff in my cart now I get two options for same-day delivery. Scot: [46:29] Are you getting that like morning and then like there's like an insane one just like 4 a.m. Jason: [46:33] 4 a.m. to 8 a.m. yeah and it works like I wake up and there's stuff like at my front door. Scot: [46:39] Wow. Jason: [46:40] Pretty you know I wouldn't say perfectly but pretty reliably and so again like you know if I would have before noon there I have two windows often to pick. Products and I'm not having to go to some separate experience and Shop from some constraint set of products or things like that like I think the the universal experience in Universal cart and the move away from Amazon Prime now and all these separate experiences like, I do think in a way like Amazon is solving for ultra-fast delivery but they're just one generation more mature than any of these you know new companies. Scot: [47:14] Okay anything else there. Jason: [47:18] That is it on Amazon what did you have any other takeaways there's one other IPO that I thought was interesting this week. Scot: [47:24] Well then it was really weird because after the market closed we're all adjusting that and then Facebook's like hey everybody we're changing our name to Metta and then they put out this logo that looks like a warped eight on its side or like the infinity symbol that's been bent and you just look at it you're like I bet they spent eight hundred thousand dollars on that logo and you know there's. Jason: [47:47] Any amount of money spent on branding and Logo generation is well invested hashtag publicist. Scot: [47:52] Okay yes true true yes absolutely call Jason if you need new logo did you guys do that logo for. Jason: [47:59] I can neither confirm nor deny we did. Scot: [48:03] I love it sorry I love it. Jason: [48:03] Not because I'm being not because I'm being stealthy I just honestly don't know it's totally possible that we did. But I don't know but we certainly do a lot of great branding work including the Amazon logo so fun. Scot: [48:16] The chief the chief branding digital logo officer doesn't know what logos you're doing. Jason: [48:22] No but the way more talented people at Turner Duckworth would probably be able to tell us. Scot: [48:27] Okay cool what IPO did you say. Jason: [48:30] Yeah so have you been following their Rent the Runway IPO at all. Scot: [48:33] I have yeah. Jason: [48:35] Yeah so this is pretty interesting so. Digitally native company unlike a lot of the other digital native Brands that's kind of in the the re Commerce space right because they're they're buying a parallel and and renting it to Consumers, and they have been one of the the. Most hyped digitally native Brands because in general rental models can be like extra profitable you buy something once and you rent it a bunch of times, old Mentor mine Wayne huizenga used to do that with videos and he made a lot of money in that space and trash cans and other things. So it was interesting to both see their financials and then they actually have their IPO this week. So and it's a very. [49:23] I'll call it a bifurcated story so it's an 11 year old company they've raised over seven hundred million dollars in venture capital and their, wildly unprofitable coming into this IPO, so they lost a hundred and fifty four million dollars in 2020 they're forecasting to lose a hundred seventy 1 million dollars in 2021, um and of course they're in like the worst possible business case for covid right like they're they're renting apparel to women to wear to parties and to work, and two things no one did in 2020 is go to a party or go to work right so. [50:02] You know they historically they would have like hung their hat on having all this subscriber revenue and their subscribers basically got cut in half by covid their last 42 percent of their active subscribers the revenue drop from, hi in 2019 of 257 million 258 million in 2020 so covid really hit them. And you know you go man that it feels like they're kind of limping into the IPO and I want to talk about how that IPO went for them but two other interesting facts before we talk about that, one thing I thought was really interesting and and. Arguably like the one favorable thing and all of their financials is how they get the inventory that they're renting so, a catastrophic piece of news is that their inventory is way more fragile than I would have expected right so they they rent you know one of those garments six times and then they usually have to retire so they're not getting like. Tons of reuse about around each of these garments but thirty-six percent of their rental inventory. Is Rev share with designers so what that means is instead of buying it at the wholesale price and then them renting it a bunch of times, they're getting it free or at a very low cost from the design house and then they're sharing the profits with those those those brands. [51:26] That's frankly exactly how the video rental business grew like in the early days of Blockbuster we bought videos and rented them and later on you know we did rev share agreements with all them the movie studios and that. [51:38] Let you get a lot more inventory a lot more affordable. Um also surprising to me eighteen percent of their inventory is private label which I would have thought like a big part of the value prop of Rent the Runway was all these well-known designer Brands so I was surprised to hear they're able to get away with you know almost one out of four five garments being. [51:56] Being private label so that was interesting and then the last piece of catastrophic news is as bad as their finances look the accountants looked at it and threw up even more because, I mentioned that this inventory gets really perishable and and they have to throw it away well the what they did all their finances without including any depreciation of their inventory so, invented a new flavor of ebay.com bike ibadah before inventory depreciation and you know those if you were to actually put the depreciation on their books. The those losses I just read to you would be even much higher so. So mostly like a pretty negative look at the company going into this IPO and then I want to say they did the IPO at 21 and immediately the stock went up and they hit a high of 23 and everyone's like wow in spite of all this horrible finances. They're having a big IPO and then as the day went on the price started dropping down and now I want to say it's about 18 18 bucks and 85 cents so, you know pretty significantly down from that $23 offer. [53:16] Like Scott in your mind is like let's call it ten percent like is that a. An acceptable IPO is that a disaster does it surprise you given their finances that they were able to do an IPO at all. Scot: [53:30] Yeah and you know one of the ways I look at it is let's look at the valuation so they're doing a hundred and fifty eight million ish last year and we don't have enough data this year to kind of know there haven't really materially improved since then so let's say let's be generous and say they'll do 200 million this year they're at a billion market cap so 5x for a business that. You know has all the kind of the negatives you're outlined there. You know the they're not getting as much use of the Garment as you would think I think our friend Dan McCarthy is at MacArthur, McCartney or McCarthy McCarthy yeah he he kind of picked apart their Co hard data and it looks like they have pretty high churn, yeah I actually think it was kind of a win because that's a pretty good valuation for this snapshot in time. [54:24] Pricing IPOs is tricky because you want to kind of price it where you get a little bit of a pop but maybe ten to twenty percent up, but if you get more than at the company you're kind of sitting there saying we just sold a bunch of stock at a discount and that wasn't great now the good news is your hopefully you know you haven't sold the majority of your stock so you sold maybe 10% and I have like 90% that's worth more so it's. It's you're not going to totally cry over it cushions the blow yet going down isn't isn't a good look and it doesn't Kate that know a lot a fair amount of weakness as people you know maybe they got excited and they're coming yeah I think I'm gonna I'm going to kind of limit my maybe they sold half of it you also and I peel you're trying to place the stock with people that will hold it long term so the fact is down means that didn't really work that people were just trying to flip it for a quick buck. Jason: [55:17] Yeah one other side note like a lot of people were optimistic for this IPO because this like re Commerce model like it's you know potentially better for the environment, and looking at the economics it actually ends up that this is probably worse than like buying disposable apparel from H&M because like the the reverse Logistics of moving this stuff around so many times and then like having to throw it away pretty quickly and like you know weaning into the fashion trends and stuff becoming obsolete as new trends emerge like it all it all netted out to like it wasn't a very favorable ecologically story either. Scot: [55:58] Yeah well we'll see a for effort. Jason: [56:02] Yeah I mean my big takeaway again like there's there's going to be some interesting digital native companies but like this this myth that that is fundamentally an advantage model and that all these companies are doing great like this is one of the companies a lot of before there was any public data available everyone's like oh I think there's a billion dollars and they've got all this sticky reoccurring rental subscription Revenue so they're probably wildly popular and their costs are super low because they're renting the same garment over and over again so I this is an amazing business and then you know when you get to look under the covers why no it's not so you know I just I would just say, you can absolutely build a good digitally native business but like it's not a good business just because you're a digitally native vertical brand. Scot: [56:47] Yeah one for listeners yet as you know one of my favorite hobbies is I really love to watch The Road Show presentations but they're only out there for like a week or so all birds is on the road right now so that one is available and you have to go to Retail Road show.com and get from this list and watch it, it was one of the better ones I've seen in a long time the video they did the with the founders had like a cheekiness to it that was kind of unusual usually these. Jason: [57:16] Talking about the Auburn's one right because Rent the Runway is on there right now or was on their last week too. Scot: [57:21] Yeah it's on sadly it's faced off yeah the all birds one is really really good so I recommend folks watch that one and then I just saw that NerdWallet hit and I'm kind of interested to see how they talk about that one. Jason: [57:33] Yeah that has been entertaining TV I watch those videos on my my Peloton now. Scot: [57:41] Nice. Jason: [57:43] When I'm not listening to Amazon earning calls. Well Scott is happen again we have perfectly used up all our lot of time but hopefully people found some value in this recap and if you did as always we sure would appreciate it if you jump on the iTunes and give us that five-star review. Scot: [58:03] Yeah thanks everybody and until next time. Jason: [58:06] Happy Commercing!
Host Jess Del Fiacco and ILSR's Brenda Platt are joined by Jacob Hannah, Conservation Director at Coalfield Development. Coalfield Development works across many sectors -- solar energy, agriculture, manufacturing, deconstruction, reuse, and more -- as it pursues its mission of rebuilding the Appalachian economy. … Read More
Dr. Gabrielle Lyon is a Washington University fellowship-trained physician in Nutritional Science and Geriatrics and is board certified in Family Medicine and Osteopathic Manipulation. She completed her undergraduate degree in Human Nutrition, Vitamin, and Mineral Metabolism at the University of Illinois. Dr. Lyon is the founder of the Institute for Muscle Centric-Medicine™. She services the leaders, innovators, mavericks, and executives in their prospective field. In addition, Gabrielle works closely with the Special Operations Military and has a private practice that services patients worldwide. In this episode, you will learn: How much protein you should eat for optimum results Why is muscle so important to maintain weight loss What is functional medicine