Podcast appearances and mentions of david rubinstein

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Best podcasts about david rubinstein

Latest podcast episodes about david rubinstein

What the Dev?
302: Breaking down the barriers to serverless adoption (with DBOS' Jeremy Edberg)

What the Dev?

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 1, 2025 9:54


In this episode, David Rubinstein interviews Jeremy Edberg, CEO of DBOS, about the current state of serverless.They discuss:Why serverless adoption has stagnatedThe complexity of serverless architectureWhat needs to change to increase adoption

What the Dev?
300: The complex world of open source AI (with Red Hat's Stephen Watt)

What the Dev?

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 18, 2025 13:45


In this episode, David Rubinstein interviews, Stephen Watt, VP of the Office of the CTO at Red Hat, about open source AI.They discuss: Differences between open source software and open source AIThe difficulty in applying open source principals to AIEfforts made to define open source AI

What the Dev?
297: Why a clean codebase is key when using AI-assisted coding tools (with Tabnine's Eran Yahav)

What the Dev?

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 25, 2025 12:31


In this episode David Rubinstein interviews Eran Yahav, co-founder and CTO of Tabnine, about why its important to provide AI assistants with clean code.They discuss: The importance of defining organizational rules and best practices to guide the AIHow to use AI-assisted refactoring to improve legacy codebasesIf organizations should apply KonMari principles to their codebases

What the Dev?
295: How middle code is bridging the gap between low-code and traditional programming (with OpsMill's Damien Garros)

What the Dev?

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 11, 2025 10:10


In this episode, David Rubinstein interviews Damien Garros, co-founder and CEO of OpsMill, about middle code, a concept that sits somewhere between programming and low-code/no-code.They discuss:What middle code isThe influence generative AI has had on this technologyHow middle code can be used to accomplish things not possible with low-code or no-code

Mayday! w/ Trevor May
The Orioles owner cries “Salary cap!” & Ichiro misses unanimous by one vote

Mayday! w/ Trevor May

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 30, 2025 15:35


In this episode: Deep dive looking into Baltimore Orioles owner, David Rubinstein, wish for a salary cap in the MLB and 2001 Rookie of the Year, Ichiro Suzuki voted (almost) unanimously into the Hall of Fame.

What the Dev?
290: The state of software supply chain security (with Sonatype's Brian Fox)

What the Dev?

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 17, 2024 14:52


In this episode, David Rubinstein interviews Brian Fox, co-founder and CTO of Sonatype. They discuss the company's 10th annual State of the Software Supply Chain report. Key talking points include: The rapid growth of malicious open-source componentsThe increasing length of time needed to remediate vulnerabilitiesHow regulations impact supply chain securityNote: This will be the final episode of What The Dev released in 2024. We'll be back in early January 2025! 

WPRV- Don Sowa's MoneyTalk
Employee Stock Options Explained

WPRV- Don Sowa's MoneyTalk

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 10, 2024 41:56


Options trading is typically reserved for the highly skilled investor, however employee stock options are one exception, and many who own them lack a clear understanding of how they really work. Nathan discusses some different types of employee stock options and how to navigate their rules and features. Also on MoneyTalk, principles of investing from David Rubinstein‘s book, “How to Invest: Masters on the Craft”. Host: Nathan Beauvais, CFP®, CIMA®; Air Date: 12/6/2024; Original Air Dates: 5/17/2023 & 6/9/2023. Have a question for the hosts? Visit sowafinancial.com/moneytalk to join the conversation!See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What the Dev?
289: Balancing security and convenience in biometric authentication (with Aware's Mohamed Lazzouni)

What the Dev?

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 10, 2024 15:52


In this episode, David Rubinstein interviews Mohamed Lazzouni, CTO of Aware, a company that offers identity verification services. They discuss the current state of biometric authentication, including its challenges, user experience, and ethical considerations. They also talk about concerns regarding deepfakes and the countermeasures to protect against them.

What the Dev?
284: Improving developer experience with visual collaboration tools (Sponsored by Lucid)

What the Dev?

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 29, 2024 15:21


This episode was sponsored by Lucid, a provider of a visual collaboration suite for developers. Learn more here: https://lucid.co/ In this episode, David Rubinstein, editor-in-chief of SD Times, interviews Jessica Guistolise, evangelist at Lucid, about how visual collaboration can improve developer experience.They discuss:Challenges with gaining visibility in software developmentThe value of visualizationsHow visual collaboration streamlines Agile developmentResources: https://sdtimes.com/softwaredev/accelerating-innovation-how-the-lucid-visual-collaboration-suite-boosts-agile-team-efficiency/ 

Application Paranoia
S5EP4 - Upside down Pineapples and a Panel interview on AI by David Rubinstein

Application Paranoia

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 9, 2024 55:04


Colin Bell, Rob Cuddy and Kris Duer from HCL Software bring you another insightful application paranoia session.In this episode the interviewvers be come the interviewd as David Rubinstien interviews  Colin, Rob and Kris for his recent SD times articale on  Discerning reality from the hype around AI. You can read his article here at the following linkhttps://sdtimes.com/ai/discerning-reality-from-the-hype-around-ai/David is the Publishing Director and Editor-in-Chief, SD Times and ITOps Times Conference Chairman, VSMcon; Improve: Test and Productivityand  Co-founder and Chief Operating Officer, D2Emerge LLC

What the Dev?
265: The impact of impolite chatbot behavior on a company's customer service reputation (with WillowTree's Michelle Avery)

What the Dev?

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 18, 2024 13:33


In this episode, David Rubinstein, editor-in-chief of SD Times, interviews Michelle Avery, group VP of AI at WillowTree, about a recent survey the company did on rude chatbots.Key talking points include: What we mean by "rude bot behavior"What goes into creating a chatbot that is politeHow organizations can measure politeness of a chatbotOn the flip side, humans can be rude to bots too

92Y Talks
Renée Fleming in Conversation with David Rubenstein: Music and Mind

92Y Talks

Play Episode Listen Later May 20, 2024 52:51


In this episode of 92NY Talks, join Grammy winner, 2023 Kennedy Center honoree, and legendary soprano Renée Fleming on her life on stage and the myriad connections between music and health in her new book, Music and Mind, which draws upon her own experience to showcase the breadth of research showing the stunning health benefits of music and the arts.   The conversation was moderated by David Rubinstein and recorded on April 21, 2024 in front of a live audience at The 92nd Street Y, New York. 

The Leadoff
MLB Opens Season With MLBPA, Ohtani, and Ownership Dramas

The Leadoff

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 28, 2024 26:07


MLB opening day is here. It is also David Rubinstein's first full day as Orioles' owner, and the Washington Post's Chelsea Janes expects he will alter the futures of the O's and the Washington Nationals, with whom the Orioles are locked in a years-long legal dispute. Janes also provides her perspective on the turmoil at the MLBPA, the Shohei Ohtani scandal, and who will win the World Series. Plus, March Madness is breaking viewership records and more are likely to fall, NCAA president Charlie Baker wants to ban prop bets on college athletes, and the Marlins are offering all-you-can-eat snacks.

Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance: When the Fed Should Cut

Bloomberg Surveillance

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 6, 2023 33:54 Transcription Available


Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab Chief Investment Strategist, says the status of the economy doesn't justify the Fed cutting rates. Amanda Lynam, BlackRock Head of Macro Credit Research, claims banks will remain at the center of lending, but that private credit can now compete in ways it previously couldn't. Libby Cantrill, PIMCO Director of Public Policy, previews the fourth GOP presidential debate. Elliot Ackerman, US Marine Corps Veteran & Former White House Fellow, breaks down the latest on the Israel-Hamas war. David Rubenstein, Carlyle Group Co-Founder, previews a brand-new episode of Bloomberg's "The David Rubenstein Show: Peer to Peer Conversations" featuring Pershing Square CEO Bill Ackman. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance    Full transcript: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Lisa abrahmoids along with Tom Keen and Jonathan Ferrell. Join us each day for insight from the best in economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. I've been looking forward to this conversation. Liz An Son is the chief Investments trying to just a chold swap joins us right now. Lizan, I've been looking forward to it because we're not going to talk about self landing, hard landing, no landing, none of that. We're going to talk about what you and a team have been focused on now for a while, and that's rolling recessions. That is a framework, Lizen. Why is that so important for you? That nuance? Well, first of all, this is a unique cycle. That's the ultimate understatement. I think taking a nuanced approach is important, and we've been using that term for quite some time. I think the only other person that I know that's been using as long as we have is Ed yard Denny, and not that we want to rehash the last three and a half years, but if you think about the stimulus fuel demand surge coming out of the worst part of the pandemic, all of that demand and money associated with it was funneled into the good side of the economy because we had no access to services. That was where the inflation problem first began on the good side of the economy, exacerbated by the supply chain disruptions. But fast forward to the more recent period, we've gone into hard landing recessions for housing, manufacturing, a lot of housing related, many of the consumer product areas that were big beneficiaries of the lockdown, and we've gone from inflation to disinflation to deflation in many of the goods categories. We've just had the later offsetting strength on the services side. Same thing as rolled through in terms of inflation. So to me, best case scenario is not really soft landing that Schuberti sailed for many important segments of the economy. It's a continued roll through where if in when services in the labor market get hit, you have found stability and maybe even some improvement in those areas that have already taken their hit. Lezan, love your nuance. Let's build on that. Where are you seeing opportunities that might have hit bottom that you want to be investing in now, In particular sectors that you think already have rolled through, they're hard landing and are now buys. I still think that investors are better off taking a factor based approach as opposed to a monolithic sector based approach, But we have made some adjustments in terms of the foot factors that we're focused on. As you know we've talked about it on this program. We have been emphasizing stay up in quality with factors like interest coverage and strong return on equity and strong balance sheet, but also growthy factors like positive earnings, revisions and surprises. But I think you want to now add kind of evaluation kicker into the mix because this year was characterized by all multiple expansion, no earnings growth. We see in the last month that there is money itching to move out of the Magnificent seven to find opportunities down the cap spectrum. And you have seen some lower quality characteristics to of what has rallied. I think you want to fade that and continue to lean into quality. But you can find it across the spectrum of sectors and also outside that group of just the Magnificent seven. So you said something Lezen talking about how people are itching to take the money that they've put into the Magnificent seven and put it to work elsewhere that might be at a lower valuation. How big is that wave of people is to get out of the Magnificent seven. Is this something that could cause an underperformance or is it just simply there's just been so much money people are looking for other ideas well. So far, so good in terms of the rotational nature of this easing of some of the excesses, You've seen some pullback in the Magnificent seven. The rest of two thousand SMP equal weight is outperforming the SMP over the past month or so. It's happened in kind of a stealth way. That's obviously the best way to go through a corrective phase of excesses versus the bottom falling out all at once. What concerns me, particularly once we get past the year end seasonality, is that there is an incredible amount of overlap, especially in the large institutional world and the hedge fund world, in terms of ownership of not just the magnificent seven but up the cap spectrum, and that you know, if we get some sort of catalyst and it unleashes more frenzy around selling, I think maybe the hit would have to be larger, but I do think absent that we could continue to see a broadening out via rotation again as opposed to some significant crack occurring in the market. Lasan, can you help us gauge sentiment? Just sort of a bit wittold, least from myself repeatedly that the money money market funds is really really sticky. As you look across clients, to the people you speak to daily, have they been moving into equities over the last month? What was that move in November? So you've seen some move in equities, But it's actually, interestingly within the US equity market been toward areas like real estate utilities, and I think that is in keeping with expectations of sooner rather than later fed cuts. I'm skeptical about that, but that's where the money has gone. But sentiment is really interesting because attitudinal sentiment measures have gone off the charts of bullishness and very little bearishness. Yet even the AAII survey that we get those attitudinal bullish bearish readings, the equity exposure of that same cohort of investors has actually been coming down. On the other hand, active institutional managers have actually been significantly increasing exposure. So much like cross currents in the economy, there's even a lot of cross currents in terms of sentiment data, and it's really a mixed picture, and sentiment is hard to It's always hard to use as some market timing tool, even at extremes, but it's particularly murky in this environment right now. Lizen, just a put a bow on it. You did just mentioned that that you're skeptical about right cuts. Can you just explain that a little bit more, Well, the inflation is still above the FEDS target, the labor market is hanging in there, the economy is hanging in there. How that justifies a pivot from the most aggressive tightening cycle to easing as soon as the first quarter of next year. I don't get it. It's possible to find to be easy, but probably because there's more economic dislocation between now and then. In addition, you had the Fed and Powell specifically pointing to the bond market doing a lot of the tightening for the FED when you were in the surge and yields up to five percent. To me, what would be interesting to hear is if they start to say, well, the loosening, which is a record one month loosening in financial conditions in November, maybe that does some of the loosening for the FED. And it wouldn't surprise me if Powell has to yet again reinforce the notion that they're not at this point considering rate cuts. That's the conversation for a week today. Listen. Thank you Lizanne Sunders, a child swab one of the very best joining us at Amandelinum, head of macro credit research at Black Crock Andmanic good morning, good morning, Thank you both for having me. How much money is shift into private markets. So our forecast calls for that asset class to grow from one point six trillion globally to three and a half trillion by the end of twenty twenty eight. So that implies a pretty significant continued growth pattern through the next five years. There are really four drivers behind that. The increase in the addressable market is one of them, but it's really investors looking for diversification, borrowers looking for certainty of execution, structural shifts in the public markets which are now serving larger and larger borrowers, so that renders small middle market debt deals ill liquid. And then fourth is the opportunity for banks to partner with non banks. And also just given the well telegraphed contraction in bank lending and tightening of bank lending standards to really fuel that growth. And so that's our forecast. Was that a really nice way of saying D banking that basically private credit is stealing banks lunch. I watched all of your great coverage yesterday, and I did see the D Banking dialogue. I actually think I agree with the comments that banks will remain at the center of the lending universe. That said, I think the important takeaway is that as private credit has become sizeable and scalable in its own right, it can now compete against other parts of the market where it wasn't historically. And so what we've actually seen are some companies with demonstrated access to the public markets choosing to refinance in the private markets. I think there's an opportunity for banks to partner with non banks in terms of in an environment where capital and liquidity rules may change, to partner and maybe move some of that lending into other parts of the non bank system. Doesn't mean that the risk transfer is a negative. It just means that capital is being reallocated, just like it did after the financial crisis. So there is this sort of larger question when you say banks will still be the center of the lending universe, it raises this question about what that means. There'll be the center in terms of maybe organizing some of these transactions, but not necessarily the center of profits, not necessarily the center of deploying risk and then getting that outsize return for some of these private loans. Is that what we're saying that they're going to be the center of sort of some of the transactional aspects, but that private credit firms are going to really get the upside from these loans that banks used to capture. I mean, I think from the side of the banking relationship, they really have a lot of the client relationships, a lot of the underwriting expertise. But in an environment where risk weighted assets are going up, does it make sense to hold all of that capital on the bank balance sheet or is there a more capital efficient way to do it? I think that's really the shift that we're seeing now. Some of these factors have been in place for a really long time, going back to the Financial crisis. After Dodd Frank was enacted, the public syndicated leverage loan markets grew because banks didn't want to keep those loans on their balance sheet. Instead they syndicated them out to a wide range of investors. That's how the public debt markets have been growing for so long. So I think that's just it's another sort of iteration of this capital allocation that's shifting in response to the regional banking disruption in March, in response to the potential rules for Basle three endgame, and I think it's probably a longer term shift. By the way, I would say, you know, our three and a half trillion forecast, it assumes a fifteen percent compound annual growth rate. That's actually below the growth rate that we've seen over the past five years, and it's consistent with the growth rate over the past decade. So it sounds large, but it's actually a continuation of the trend that's already been in place. Let's talk about big moves out of the last month. Credit spread so much tighter on high yield. I think three sixty seven right now, I just want it from your perspective, still up in quality, and what do you make of this move? So, I mean, I think the move it's very It's consistent with this kind of year end rally that has been fueled by pretty favorable technicals. We've seen issuance pick up, but not to a significant extent that it's interfering with that tightening. From our perspective, yes, up in quality still makes a lot of sense. For this really important reason. Most of the issuance in twenty twenty three, and I'm talking about the left in market has been up in quality within that market, so double bes and high single bees. The low low end of the quality spectrum, so triple c's and low single bees, has really been untested. There's been a lot of talk about rate cuts. That's not really our base case in the first half. But even if we do get a few modest rate cuts, just to put that in perspective, the implied refinancing cost on average for triple C's is above six hundred basis points. For the distressed universe it's above fourteen hundred basis points. So this low end of the quality spectrum. Even if we get some rate relief, they're still going to be refinancing into a much higher cost of capital regime. How long can goldilocks lost goldilocks last? Then? I think it's the title of our one Q outlook was a widening divide, and I really think it speaks to the dispersion that's evident under the surface and a lot of these markets. So for goldilocks, investment grade goldilocks, you know, high quality, high yield, they're in a pretty good spot, especially if we can achieve the soft landing. If you're a triple C rated credit that has refined nancing to do and you're looking at your current coupon and then the six hundred basis points that it may cost you to refinance in today's market or more much different story. It's part of the reason why we expect defaults to continue to march higher through the first half of next year. It's not not a spike, not a significant increase. But I don't think we ask a lot have we seen the last of this transition to a higher cost of capital. I don't believe that we have with us around the table. I'm really placed society brilliant. Libby Cantroll, the managing director and head a public policy over at PIMCO. Libby, good morning. Another big debate for Republicans. Big debate? Yes, is this the big one? The difference? This is the big one? So this may be the last one. Actually, there's not another debate schedule before Iowa, when voters, of course on the Republican side, will go to the polls on January fifteenth. Viewership has declined since the first debate. That's when we saw sort of top tick of thirteen million. The last debate was around seven million, So we'll see if people are even paying attention to this. I think the real question, though John is does can Nicky Haley have another breakout moment? Does this sort of sustain the momentum that she has both in terms of the polling but very importantly in terms of the donors, And that remains an open question. I think that the other three folks on the debate stage will be sort of attacking Nicki Haley. I think Nicki Heley will be attacking President Trump, so it should be raucous as usual. But does it actually make a difference. I think that's the open question. What's the chance that you see another Biden Trump matchup. Well, so you know, what we're guiding our clients too, is one is that Biden will be the nominee. This sort of idea that there is some great cabal at the convention that will unseat him. We just do not think as founded. Senator bros from Louisiana, who had served with Joe Biden in the Senate, said, as long as President Biden is breathing, he is running. And I think that is something we should just you know, take take for what it is. You know, on the Republican side, obviously, if the primaries were held tomorrow, it looks like Trump would be the nominee. They're not going to be held tomorrow. They're held in around forty days. And what we've seen with Iowa and New Hampshire is that things can change. They haven't really changed in terms of dictating who the nominee is since two thousand and eight when Obama, who was sort of underperforming all of the polls, that really outperformed in both Iowa and New Hampshire and was able to get the momentum to the nomination. So a lot can still happen, but as of now, if you were saying, if the primaries were held tomorrow, it would be another Biden Trump rematch, and you know, ironically, I'll just say, is that seventy percent of Americans don't want that. So that's the reason why I think it got so much attention yesterday when Joe Biden said if it wasn't for Donald Trump, he wouldn't be running again. What do you make of that? Do you make that if NICKI Haley is the nominee for the Republican side, that there is a chance that Joe Biden would step down and pave the way for somebody else. So his his pressure ap really watched that back last night after those comments were made. They were made, of course in private at a fundraiser, so was maybe I think they're saying taken out of context. You know. However, you know, this is something that President Biden has been saying since he was a candidate in twenty twenty, that that's why he was running the first time, and so this is somewhat consistent with that messaging. However, if Trump does not get the nomination, I still think that President Biden is the incumbent president. He believes that he really has a record both on the economy and then foreign policy to feel confident to run on. So we are not getting sort of any indication from folks close to the Biden world that he is, that he's not running. He is running. We've been all appreciate. I think we could all benefit from a delegation oudication rules clinic from you. How have things changed for Republican primary, especially as a non Yes, a US citizen, So I appreciate you on that question. Yeah, so this is important. It's like very wants and a lot of our client's eyes understandably glazed over. But to get the nomination, it's just a delegate game. You need to get fifty percent of the delegates at stake on the Republican side and the Democratic side. The Republican side is the real story here, though, because the Trump campaign much more organized than it was in twenty sixteen. By their own emission, they have now systematically changed the way that states allocate delegate rules to benefit him as long as it's a crowded field, meaning that he They've changed the rules to what's called winner take all, So as long as President Trump is winning a plurality of the vote in many states, he will get one hundred percent of the delegates, and the punchline for all of us is that that makes it much easier for him to get the nomination much more quickly. So I would argue that by March fifth, which is Super Tuesday, we'll have had forty five percent of the delegates at stake being voted on, we likely will have a very good idea of who's going to be the nominee or whether it's going to be more of a competitive two person race. As you said, so we know there's four people on the stage. Later is on the calendar where that for needs to become one to change the outcome of this. Well, I think there are a lot of folks on both the Republican side and then also some of the Democratic side. As you've seen, there's some now Democratic donors who are you know, donating to Nicki Haley sort of interesting, unprecedented in many ways, who are trying to argue for a Chris Christy to say drop out of the race before Iowa. You know, John, I think what we've seen though before is that again so much can change. That much of this is unprecedented, particularly given what we might be facing, which is you know, two incumbent presidents effectively running against each other. So you know, I don't think there's a drop dead date, but I do think that it needs to become a two person race sort of by South Carolina. That's February twenty fourth. So I think the bottom line for kind of the markets and for investors is that the next seventy five days really matters. We will have a very good idea by sort of South Carolina by Super Tuesday, which is March fifth, whether this is going to be President Trump Biden or whether it's going to be more of a two person race between Nicky Haley and Trump. In those seventy five days, we're going to be dealing with a couple of deadlines for funding the government. Before I let you go, we keep talking about where is the leverage. The leverage is in the US government. I then you figure something out in order to keep operating. How are you advising people in the market to understand what's happening, what the likelihood of a shutdown is, what that means in terms of the growing risk frankly that it's been attributed to in markets. Yeah, So mean I think that two things. One is that this is not the dead ceiling, right. The debt ceiling was existential for the markets that has been fortunately addressed until January or February of twenty twenty five. This is really the most foundational function of Congress is just to keep the lights on. They keep kicking the can down the road, Lisa, does it really matter if they shut down the government? Probably not if it's not for a sustained period of time, But if it does go on for weeks, then we don't get some of the economic data, then it could actually start hurting the economy. But I think this is just sort of noise. But I think the punchline here from a fiscal perspective is this effectively funds of government at the same levels as last year, and what we're not We're not going to see any more physical stimulus. And I think the threshold for any sort of stimulus, even if we do go into recession. I know your previous guest was pretty sang one about the economy. I think we maybe we as as bond investors, are a little less so, but the threshold for any sort of fiscal stimus is going to be very high. So we think the government probably will be funded probably at the last moment, but again from a market's perspective, we're not sure. We're there's more noise than really anything. It's always the way, isn't it. Equities, hopes and dreams, bonds, fares and nightmassy do you know? Yeah, obviously obviously, Well yeah, thank you, thanks, good to see it. Great to catch you out let me cant with their Pimcoke. I'm pleased to say that John, I guess now is Elliot Akerman, the US Marine Corps veteran and former White House fellow. Ali wonderful to hear from you, sir. Always appreciate your perspective and your deep experience. Let's start with that experience. Can you describe for our audience the type of urban combat taking place right now, the urban commet that we're seeing in Gaza. You know, it's that happens really at a very close quarters, you know, street by street, house by house, room to room. As I think I've said on this show, eating in an urban fight is like it's like being in a knife fight in a phone booth. So it also takes away that the advantage that high tech militaries have, and I think we're seeing that play out and also oftentimes it's very very messy. And one of the greatest casualties in an urban fight is the city that the fight is taking place. And I think we're seeing that today as you know, vast parts of Gaza are are being turned to rubble and the civilians who lived there. So let's discuss that, given the type of combat that was seeing at the moment, how on earth do you prevent the tragic loss of civilian life we've seen. You know, It's extremely difficult, and that factors into the into the calculus on on both sides. A fundamental to you know, Hamas's attack on October seventh was they knew that they were going to force the Israeli's hands to fight them inside Gaza, which would lead to civilian casualties, which would lead to much more attention being placed in the Palestinian cause in the world, and also a significant international outcry to and the fighting. And so, you know, I think the one thing that we can see when we're looking at what is going on in Gaza is that, at least thus far, it would seem that it has preceded exactly according to Hamas's plan. Given that Elliott how much longer. Do you think that Israel has from a political perception standpoint as well as just their own aims before they're going to stop. You know, the aims of the Israeli government, as they've articulated, is the complete annihilation of Hamas. I think one of the things that's difficult is that's an extremely high bar to completely destroy a terrorist organization, as opposed to degrade its capabilities or make it so it's no longer a threat. So if that is their stated objective, I think they're in some ways probably setting themselves up for failure because it's difficult to see how they are going to completely destroy every single number of Hamas from the face of the earth, particularly as many of them are not in Gaza, you know. And the other issue that complicates factors that we can't forget about is there's a significant number of hostages still inside Gaza, so the Israelis can't finish this operation until those hostages have been freed. So, unfortunately, I think this is going to go on quite a bit longer, but every day that it extends, it becomes politically much more costly for the Israelis. Do you agree with Secretary of Defense to late Austin when he basically said that the fear here is that Israel setting itself up for a strategic defeat. I think that is certainly. I don't know that they are going to end up in a strategic defeat, but I think if the Israelis lose sight of the fact that war is always fought on two planes, both the tactical of the operational, what's happening on the ground, you know, how much of Gods is being taken or retaken, but also the political, how those actions are perceive and so you know, history is littered with cases of nations and armies that won the battle but lost the war. And I think the Israelis need to be very mindful that they don't place themselves in that situation. And we've been through a period of really intense diplomacy. We've seen that over the last two months, how elevated. Still, do you think the odds are they brought a conflict in the region. I think they've certainly lessened, but I think we absolutely want to keep our eye on any actions it seems that they could spread the conflict. You know, as you know, the United States, as you know, a very significant military presence there. We've surged naval assets into the Mediterranean Sea, all signaling very strongly to the Iranians not to spread this conflict or engage in those actions. But we've also seen simultaneously that the Iranians have been attacking US forces abroad, that there are many instances of provocation, and not only our leaders but also our troops on the ground had to be very very mindful that their actions could have TGIC consequences. So I don't think it does not seem as though the conflict is going to spread, but it's still on a hair trigger. This is a conversation about a direct conflict. I just wonder, from your perspective, in your opinion, Elio, whether you think we're already in a proxy war with Iran. I think we certainly are. But we've been in a proxy war with Iran for for decades now, and it is just waxed and waned. I mean, I mean, I'm a veteran of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and both those conflicts we were fighting a proxy war with Iran, and about those conflicts, you know, so the American service member I was, you know, having to dodge IEDs built by Iran and having to deal with Coudes Force paramilitaries who are operating or Iranian in those theaters. So we've been fighting that war for a long long time. But it's very important that as you know, you know, it doesn't escalate into an all out conflagration across the Middle East, particularly as we have another war going on in Ukraine. So these are you know, these are dangerous times where they I'm glad you brought that up as a former American service member, as someone who's actually served and seeing the threat, what is your sense of this increasing isolationism or the increasing fight over funding for some of these conflicts. Do you think that it's a valid one or do you think that that's really our retracement from the role that you served for. Because I think that there should always be robust debate in this country about issues of war and peace, and I think that is very very healthy. However, I also think that, you know, those debates should occur in a functional as opposed to a dysfunctional way. They should occur in a way that has a very clear eyed or it takes a very clear eyed view of the world beyond our shores and isn't naive of the place of America in the world. So, you know, I don't think it's inappropriate for members of Congress to be debating how long and how much the United States is going to spend on these wars. But I also think if there's some of idea that the US can just retreat within its borders and that's going to be the best interest of this country. I mean, you know, we've seen that, we've seen that play out before, and it doesn't play out to the best interests of the United States. You're implying, Elliott that the debate right now is not healthy. What would a healthy debate look like? And why is what we're seeing right now not healthy? So I think there's a degree of brenksmanship that's going on. And I think that braksmanship of you know, buying aid packages together the much of the dysfunction that we've seen them in Congress where we no longer where Congress no longers exists with the culture, and I'm olding to remember this culture in which most people operated under a mode of that you know, America's differences ended at our shores, and we projected ourselves abroad, we projected ourselves as a unified country. I mean, now we know that our allies, you know, have different you know, they prefer republican or a democratic administration and have policies that they set for both. So I think there's the overall fractiousness in our country is hurting the efficacy of our foreign policy. So that's what I mean, Ellie, thank you, sir Vio Clarity, Ellie Aikman. I'm the latest on the situation in the Middle East and with Ukraine and rest as well. I'm so pleased to say. Joining me right now is David Rubinstein. I want to pick up on that point that Bill was saying, which is his activism as now not in a corporate boardroom but on college campuses. And we heard this yesterday from Mark Rowan of Apollo. How much you hearing that increasingly from some of your peers. Well, there's no doubt that Bill Ackman doesn't need to be an activist in investing anymore, because, as he said in the interview, he wasn't that well known when he was an activist, and therefore he had to get attention, and doing activist kind of things got people's attention. Now he's pretty well known, so he can avoid that part of his investing process. In terms of College and Harvard, he has been very active with his letter to Clouding Gay and Mark Rowan has been very active at Penn as well, and a number of other business people have been active. There's no doubt that there's a lot of concern in the business but other communities about what's going on in college campuses. And as we all know, it's not a pleasant situation to be Jewish student in some campuses these days, or to be a Muslim student some campus has been a problem as well. So I don't think there's a perfect answer. We're not going to solve it overnight. It's going to take some time for all these colleges to kind of figure out what the right balance is. Do you get a sense that there is something specific that people are asking for that goes beyond a statement on anti Semitism or Islamophobia and goes more to the nature of conversation at certain universities. Well, at certain universities, I would say on the left, far left are far right. There's not a lot of room for people who disagree. Some campuses are far left, some are maybe more conservative, and people who disagree with the conventional or the majority view, don't get the kind of support that they might want to receive from the college presidences or universities. In some cases, Harvard is seen by people in Congress who said yesterday in the hearing that is seen as far left. Maybe it is, maybe it isn't. I was on the board of Harvard for many years, and I think Harvard tries to do the best it can. But it's a very large campus, very diverse. The president of university has done as good a job as she can in a very short period of time dealing with these issues, but nobody is going to be able to solve this problem overnight. You're also on the University of Chicago board, and full disclosure, I attended there, so if I'm biased, I just want to be completely transparent. There is this question about whether it's appropriate for a university to take a stand at all on any social issue, or just to let the individual professors and students have their own voices rather than have some sort of collective voice that you have to stay within. Do you think that that is the way to go well? With the same issue CEO's face, Should corporations be taking positions on these kind of issues. Sometimes they do, sometimes they don't. Universities are places where young people are generally allowed to grow and experience what life is going to be about when they leave campuses, and they tend to be sometimes more shrill and certain things they might be when they become an adult. I think at the Universe Chicago, we've had a long standing one hundred year policy of basically letting people say what they want, has provided that they don't do anything that harms anybody else or incites violence. But there's been a lot of free speech at univer Chicago, and I think that's a great tradition there. Do you think that going forward there's going to be any change in response to some of the pressure, Given the pressure that we have seen now, I suspect something will happen, but I don't know that Congress will do anything. I think the university boards are probably going to be more sensitive to these issues. There is going to be more security for certain students there, for sure, But I think there'll be more of a move towards a University of Chicago approach where more people are allowed to say what they think without feeling that if they say something that's unpopular. They'll be criticized or harmed physically. Just besides this particular issue with Bill Lackman, he's also been vocal about investing in treasures just to shift a little bit to the investment side. And I am curious if you're starting to hear this more that certain hedge funds that maybe are struggling to get an edge in public markets are just making bull trades on the path of interest rates. How much you're hearing that well. Bill Ackman said in the interview is that he doesn't generally doesn't make big macro bets. That's not what he generally does. He generally makes bets on companies. But in a couple of times in his history he has made macro bets and some have worked out extremely well. And he's made one not two year long ago, where he made a couple of billion dollar I mean, I guess it was a two billion dollar profit on a relatively modest investment in a relatively short period of time. That's hard to do. This time, he's made a bet, in effect, that the treasury rate will go down, or the interest rate will go down, the Fed will lower interest rates sooner than the conventional wisdom thinks, and I assume he's structured it so that if they do, he'll make a fair amount of money. And I'm assuming that right now he's pretty happy with what he's seeing because the market's coming along to his view. Conventional wisdom today is that the Fed is likely to cut interest rates sooner than maybe people thought a month ago. Right now, I think the Fed doesn't want to get into the election season, So if they're going to cut rates, they're probably not going to do it too close to the presidential election, so they probably would have to do it sooner. Meanwhile, just want to bring this to you. Just Breaking City Group is reporting some figures and what they expect, and they say that fourth quarter trading revenue is expected to drop fifteen to twenty percent compared to the third quarter, and you can see as the CFO does talk, you can see shares falling. This really does speak to this sense that there isn't going to be the same kind of opportunity to make profits for some of these firms as there has been earlier in this year. That basically this is what they're going to pitch when they CEOs go down to Washington, DC and start saying, you know, maybe we earned record profits, but we're going to lose it to people like you, David Rubens, sign at private credit and private equity. What do you make of some of these arguments. I'm not worrying too much about the large banks. They can take care of themselves. I'm sure they'll do well. Interest rates go up or down. There's no doubt when interest rates go up, they tend to make more money. Historically, if interest rates go down, they're very smart. They'll find other ways to make money. Private equity firms and private credit firms have done quite well generally over the last ten twenty years or so, and we have a lot of very smart people. We'll try to figure out how to navigate whatever interest rate environment we have. David Rubenstein, it's always a pleasure. Thank you so much for being on. Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday starting at seven am Eastern, on Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business App. You can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always on the Bloomberg terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Lisa Abramowitz, and this is BloombergSee 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Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition
Israel-Hamas Truce Enters Final Day; Remembering Charlie Munger

Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 29, 2023 23:12 Transcription Available


On today's podcast: 1) As the truce between Israel and Hamas enters its final 24 hours, negotiators from Qatar, Egypt and the US are pressing for an extension to try to secure the release of additional captives and avert a resumption of a war that erupted almost two months ago. 2) Charles Munger, the alter ego, sidekick and foil to Warren Buffett for almost 60 years as they transformed Berkshire Hathaway Inc. from a failing textile maker into an empire, has died. He was 99. 3) Billionaire investor Bill Ackman is betting the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates sooner than markets are predicting.   Full transcript:  Good morning. I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're following today. We begin with the war in the Middle East. This is the final day of an extended six day ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. The Palestinian group handed over a dozen more hostages last night, ten Israelis and two citizens of Thailand. White House National Security spokesman John Kirby says he hopes the ceasefire can be extended so more Americans can be freed. I don't want to I'll give you a handicap here on this or bet nods. I can just tell you that we want to see all the hostages out. The way to do that is these pauses. My White House spokesman John Kirby spoke with reporters outside Air Force one CIA director Bill Burns is and caught her for talks about extending the ceasefire. Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln will be back in Israel later this week, and in a post on ex President Biden called for an end of the fighting. He says Hamas fears nothing more than Israelis and Palestinians living side by side in peace and now Nathan the financial world. EA is mourning and remembering the life of Charlie Munger. Munger, who helped build Berkshire Hathaway with Warren Buffett, died yesterday at the age of ninety nine, and we have more with Bloomberg's John Tucker, John and Karen with wit, wisdom and one liners. Charlie Munger served as Warren Buffett's alter ego, often telling it with brutal honesty what wouldn't work. Munger was known for steering Buffett away from purchasing what Buffett called cigar butts mediocre companies had a puff of smoke left and could be bought for very cheap prices, and instead favoring quality. A lawyer by training, Monger recalled how he was steered toward investing when I met Warren. He immediately started telling me how much better his way of making a living was than mine, and that I was too smart to stay in such a silly businesses law practice when I could go into his business of running an investment partnership. And it took me about two or three years to realize he was right. His death, Lee's Buffett without his law time sounding board for investors, maybe his most enduring legacy is Berkshire's performance under their management. Berkshire average an annual gain of twenty percent from nineteen sixty five through twenty twenty two. I'm John Tucker, Bloomberg Radio. All right, John, thanks, of course. Charlie Munger is also going to be remembered for his roles as straight man and scold of corporate excesses at Berkshire's annual meetings in Omaha. Bloomberg Intelligence Senior analyst Matthew Pallasola remembers Monger's special relationship with Warren Buffett. They're recalling individual meetings that they had, you know, forty fifty years ago, and Bussett is forgetting a couple of things, and Munger's reminding him of, well, this guy said that, and we said this, and we made this much money in these meetings. I mean it was, you know, truly a partnership for all of that time. And their interaction was just amazing. They would finished each other sentences, and Bloomberg Intelligence Senior analyst Matthew Pallasola there. Charlie Munger died yesterday at a hospital in California. He was a longtime resident of Los Angeles. Well Nathan, we turn to the market, specifically the economy now and billionaire investor Bill Ackman, who's betting the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates sooner than markets are predicting. I think there's a risk of a hard landing if the FED doesn't start cutting rates, you know, pretty soon. So I think the market expects sometime middle of next year. I think it's more likely, probably as early as key one and Bill Lackman added that he's not convinced the US economy is headed for a soft landing. The billionaire investor made the comments in an upcoming episode of The David Rubinstein Show. Here to Beer Conversations on Bloomberg Television. Well Karen Bill Ackman's comments come as two of the fed's most hawkish rate setter signal they could be comfortable holding rates steady for now. Here's what FED Governor Christopher Waller told the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. I am increasingly confident the policy is currently well positioned to slow the economy and get inflation back to two percent. Chris Waller's view as echoed by a fellow FED governor, Michelle Bowman, who said she remains willing to support great hikes if inflation progress stalls, but she did stop short of endorsing an increase next month. Well. In Washington, Nathan, the House of Representatives may be voting on whether to expel George Santos today or tomorrow, and Bloomberg's Ed Baxter has that story. Motions in the House have been formally introduced, saying ethics findings violate the accepted policies of the body. Now, many of those members who voted against the first one November one, are saying they will vote to expel now, and Santos has responded saying the body is just theater. I went to San Diego last week. It is terrible, terrible. That's what we should be putting our energy on, not on censuring one another, expelling one another, which hunts against the political class. Nobody cares. Congress has forty eight hours to act under the resolution. Ed Baxter Bloomberg Radio, Okay and thank you. President Biden won't be there, but Vice President Kamala Harris this is attending the COP twenty eighth Climate Summit in Dubai. We get details from Bloomberg's Amy Morris. Harris will join Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln and other US officials at the two week event that begins tomorrow. She is expected to address the summit this week. Formal negotiations at COP twenty eight will center on the response to warnings that countries are falling short and cutting their emissions, and possible commitments to phase down fossil fuels in Washington, Amy Morris, Bloomberg Radio. All Right, Amy, thanks for the Incorporate news and a surprise memo. Jack ma urged Ali Baba Group to correct course civilionaire call for fundamental change across the company he co founded decades ago. Ma has mostly stayed away from day to day operations since twenty twenty, and Ali Baba wants China's best candidate to become a trillion dollar company is trading at a fraction of its peak in twenty twenty. Time now for a look at some of the other stories making news around the world. For that, we're joined by Bloomberg's Amy Morris. Good morning, Good morning, Karen. Congressional negotiators are reportedly ready to drop plans to use the annual defense policy build of Titan controls on US investment in Chinese technology. Sourses tell Bloomberg that House Financial Services Chairman Patrick McHenry is effectively blocking a measure that would require firms to notify the government about certain investments in China and other countries of concern. The Biden administration meanwhile getting pushedback from auto dealers on those mandates for switching over to electric vehicle production. Bloomberg's Nancy Llons has that part of the story. The mandate calls for two out of every three vehicles sold in the US by twenty thirty two be battery electric, but nearly four thousand auto dealers, who are calling themselves EV Voice of the Customer say most car buyers, even with incentives, are disinterested in the technology due to the higher cost, the lack of charging stations, and the loss of driving range and hot and cold weather. The dealers are asking President Biden to slow down and let the battery technology and infrastructure improve before forcing EV purchases. The White House says the proposed standards are not a mandate and do not ban gas vehicles in Washington, Nancy Lyons Bloomberg Radio Republican Congressman Anthony Disposedesposito made a motion on the House floor to force a vote on House Ethics Committee Chairman Michael Guests resolution that would expel Congressman George Santos. Minutes later, Santos took to the House floor himself to defiantly say he will not resign. Are we to now assume that one is no longer innocent until proven guilty, and they are in fact guilty until proven innocent, Or are we now to simply assume that because somebody doesn't like you, they get to throw you out of your job. The House Ethics Committee report alleged Santos used campaign cash to pay for personal expenses. He's also facing federal charges. A US military Osprey aircraft carrying eight people as crashed into the sea off southern Japan. The Japanese Coast Guard is heading to the site for search and rescue operations. Host Guard official says they don't have details yet about what happened to the osprey nor to the people on board. He says the Coastguard received an emergency call from a fishing boat near the crash site off Yakushima. The osprey was believed to be heading to Okinawa. Global News twenty four hours a day and whenever you want it with Bloomberg News Now. I'm Maybe Morris and this is Bloomberg Karen. All right, Amy, thank you well. We do bring you news throughout the day right here on Bloomberg Radio. As Amy said, but now you can get the latest news on demand whenever you want it. You can just subscribe to Bloomberg News Now to get the latest headlines at the click of a button. Get informed on your schedule. You can listen and subscribe to Bloomberg News Now on the Bloomberg Business app, Bloomberg dot Com plus Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Time now for the Bloomberg Sports Update, here's John stash Hour John Darren. The NBA started this season with an in season tournament to drum up some interest early in the regular season, taking a page out of what you see in European soccer. Last night they determined which eight teams are advancing to the knockout round next Monday. In the East, Boston will play at Indiana, and then on Tuesday it's the Knicks in Milwaukee. Monday in the West, New Orleans and Sacramento, followed the night later by Phoenix at the Lakers. The winners will advance in the semifinals December seventh in Las Vegas, with the championship on December ninth. Minnesota Timberwolves have the best wrecker in the West. They won last night. They're thirteen to four. They're not advancing, but the Knicks are. They beat Charlotte one fifteen to ninety one. The Celtics moving on. They're eight to zero. At home, they beat the Bulls one, twenty four to ninety seven. Jalen Brown scored thirty. Milwaukee got thirty three from Jannis on to the compo in a one to thirty one to one twenty four win at Miami College Hoops and the sec ACC Challenge the SEC one four, including twelfth rank Kentucky beating eighth rank Miami ninety five to seventy three. We heard from the College Football Playoff Committee. Time we'll hear from them will be Sunday with the final four announcing who's going to be in the playoffs. Georgia's rank number one. Michigan, with the big win over Ohio State, moves up to second. Everyone moves up a spot. Washington now third, Florida State fourth, Oregon fifth. Washington plays Oregon on Friday for the pac twelve Championship Ohio State. With the loss dropped the sixth John Stasheward Bloomberg Sports from coast to coast, from New York to San Francisco, Boston to Washington, DC, nationwide on siriusxam, the Bloomberg Business app in Bloomberg dot com. This is Bloomberg day Break. Good morning. I'm Nathan Hager. On this final day of an extended six day ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, the Palestinian militant group is handing over more hostages and pressure is building on both sides to see if this pause in the fighting can be extended even further. For the very latest, let's go to Tel Aviv and check in with bloom Israel Bureau chief Ethan Bronner. Ethan, it's good to have you back with us. What are the prospects that we could see this ceasefire extended beyond today? Hey, Nathan, I think the prospects are pretty good. I think that both sides have been comfortable with this pause, they would like it to extend. I think it's a breather for Hamas, it's a breezer for the Israeli defense forces, and also it allows more humanitarian aid to get into those in great need who are suffering from hunger and the outbreak of disease in Gaza. And of course it's bringing back to Israel hostages. So the deal is, you know, ten hostages a day, another day of a ceasefire, and it seems like that could go on at least two more days. Will it be a ceasefire or could it be a resolution to this conflict? We've seen commentary from President Biden himself one of his latest posts on the social platform X saying that Hamas fears nothing more than Israelis and Palestinians living side by side. To continue down the path of terror, violence, killing and war is something we can't do. Is pressure building to end this war? It is? And that was an interesting tweet. I don't know if you still call it a tweet. An interesting post on X by the President which suggests that he is slightly moving away from a full embrace of an Israeli continuation of the war. I think it's a little hard to tell. The Israelis very much want to destroy Hamas, and they believe they can, and they believe they must take this opportunity to do so. They believe that they want to get as many hostages out as possible and then go back into war. It is clearly the case with the President and many many people abroad think that the war has should stop. Too many people have died, too much suffering has occurred. And I think that politically President Biden is worried. He's also facing internal dissent in his own administration. But you know, it could also be that they sort of thread this needle in the way that allows the Israelis to go ahead in some days time, but in a way that is more targeted, there's less civilian death, and that allows them to declare a victory. We shall see. Are we seeing that play out in the thinking among Israeli officials leaders in Israel that we could see a more targeted approach and what would that look like? Yeah, and what would that look like is a great question. We are it's very very hard at the moment to get any transparency on what the next military phase will look like. When you ask, you're told, sorry, pal, we're not sharing it with you. But it is clear from public statements and also from pressure from Washington, that they have to reduce them the kind of bombardment that began in these first weeks of this. This is now almost an eight week conflict, and it is clear that they want to go after the leaders of Hamas and it's military infrastructure. They are saying that they've killed about five thousand Hamas guys. They were saying there were about thirty thousand of them, So you know, from their perspective, they've made progress, but they've hardly gotten everything they need. Now, what would it mean to go in a more targeted way. You're going to have two million people sort of crowded into the southern part of Gaza. I don't know how you're going to go get underground there without killing people. So I don't know how they're going to do it, but that's clearly something the Americans are demanding of them before they let this go forward. What do we know about the hostage releases that are expected today, Well, we know that these rulis have been given another list of ten. Again, only women and children have been and gate involved in these exchanges so far, and I expect there'll be more women and children in the next day or two. Then the question is would they get to some men, some soldiers and that's I think a more difficult thing. So far, it's been three Israeli three prisoners Palston prisoners for each hostage. That may have to change. Yeah, we do know that there have been talks underway and caught her with the CIA director Bill Burns to potentially get that ceasefire and hostage deal extended beyond women and children, something else for us to follow. And no, we will be doing that as well. Ethan Bronner, thank you so much for being with us this morning. Ethan Bronner, Israel bureau chief for Bloomberg News, joining us this morning from Tel Aviv. And now we want to bring you our conversation with the founder and CEO of Pershing Square Capital, Bill Ackman. He says the Fed's going to cut rates sooner than many of us expect. Bill Ackman joined Bloomberg's David Rubinstein for peer to peer conversations. They discuss the FED, the outlook for the US economy, and the twenty twenty four presidential elections. So let's bring you part of that conversation right now. I do think the economy is weakening. We're seeing evidence of that in some of our companies. You're seeing I have some concerns. There's been a huge subsidy in terms of low interest rates and companies. Most companies fix their rates or their debt at very low rates, and certainly real estate investors did the same. And that works until it doesn't work, And so I think we're what's going to be interesting is to see what happens when people get have to reprice their debt, and I think that can have sort of a cliff like effect, and you're certainly seeing that in real estate now. The markets are assuming, and the markets are not always right, but the markets are assuming that there's going to be a FED discount cut sometime next year. As we talk now just about the end of November. It's not clear what the Fed will do. But some people say that the Fed, if they were to cut interest rates next year year, would help the Democrats and therefore be seen as very political. The other hand, some people say the Fed can't wait till after the election because the economy might need a stimulus. So you have a view on what the Fed is likely to do. I think they're gonna cut rates, and you know, I think they're gonna cut rates sooner than people expect, because you know, what's happening is the real rate of interest ultimately, which is what impacts the economy, keeps increasing as inflation declines. Right, So if the FED keeps rates in the sort of middle fives and inflation is you know, trending below three percent or you know, that's a very high real rate of interest, and I think that is having a sort of retarding effect on the economy. And then of course, again you know, many businesses and certainly many individuals have the benefit of fixed rate debt, and that fixed rate debt, certainly for companies and for commercial real estate, starts to roll off. So I think there's a risk of a hard landing if the FED doesn't start cutting rates, you know, pretty soon. So you know, I think the market expects sometime middle of next year. I think it's more likely probably as early as key one by its own and miss and the FED probably missed inflation initially they said it was transitory, but they played catch up and they've increased rates considerably since that time. Do you think the FED made a mistake in not handling inflation differently at the beginning, And how do you think they've done since they started increasing interest rates? They certainly made a mistake. I mean, I think they would have FED generally as an institution, would admit that. I think that they caught up and effectively. So you give them credit for acknowledging the mistake and being pretty aggressive. And then I think, you know, you want to make sure that they're you know, German Powell's desire not to have a legacy of causing or contributing to long term inflation, doesn't, you know, cause them to make the opposite mistake, I mean, keep rates too high for too long, and I think the market expectation is you know, called it middle of next year, July something like this for the beginnings of easing. I think the economy will likely demand an earlier move. And I don't think of the FED as a or at least this FED, a particularly political institution. I think they're really trying to do the right thing. President Biden has called his economic program biden Nomics, which has met some derision in Republican circles. You've been an active supporter of Democrats, I think more than Republicans. Is that right? I would say historically I have you know, I would say today I certainly consider myself and have for years now a centrist, okay, and I'm much more open to Republican candidates that I am to re electing President Biden. So I you know, you would say otherwise. You know, again, I want to elect the best leader of the country, whether that person is a Republican or a Democrat. But you haven't publicly said you're supporting President Trump if he's the nominee. Ye. I've been supportive of you know, I've been supportive of Nikki Haley. I've been supportive of Chris Christy, I know, the vag Ramswani and I was, you know, pre his launch of his candidacy, I was, uh, you know, supportive of his having a young, smart, talented, uh you know, business leader as a next president. He's just been a little too far off, too far to the right, and also been disappointed a bit with his you know, geopolitics and how he's thinking about dealing with some of the wars that we find ourselves in the midst of today for the economy itself. Do you think it really is going to make a difference if President Trump is if he's the Republican nominee it gets selected, or President Biden is the Democratic nominee he's selected, who either one. Would it make a big difference for the economy in the next year or so if either one is the president or the economy is going to do what it's going to do. You know, I do think leadership matters enormously in everything from the economy to geopolitics, and I hope we're going to have a broader selection than Trump and Biden. There's actually an interesting candidate who just announced his candidacy on the Democratic side that I would say, no one has heard of a congressman named Dean Phillips. You probably have heard of him, may know him. Met with him recently. I was impressed. I think the best I think Biden done a lot of good things, but I think his legacy will not be a good one if he if he is the nominee, I do think the right thing for Biden to do is to step aside and to say he's not going to run and create the opportunity for some competition of alternative Do you think that I think that I think he's past his prime in kind of meaningful way. I think the global security, I would say, and is going to become a very high profile issue for I think the country. I think people are concerned about what's going on in terms of Russia, Ukraine, you know, the Israel Hamas situation. You know, Russia and China are pretty belligerent today. Our relationships are not good. So I think you know, you, I do think of It's a bit like being CEO of a major company. It's a it's a it's a full time job, and you need to be at your you know, you need to be strong, you need to be at your intellectual best. And I don't think Biden is there. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Today, your morning brief on the stories making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond. Look for us on your podcast feed at six am Eastern each morning, on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. You can also listen live each morning starting at five am Wall Street time on Bloomberg eleven three to zero in New York, Bloomberg ninety nine to one in Washington, Bloomberg one oh six to one in Boston, and Bloomberg ninety sixty in San Francisco. Our flagship New York station is also available on your Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty plus. Listen coast to coast on the Bloomberg Business app, seriusxmb iHeartRadio app, and on Bloomberg dot Com. I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you need to start your day right here on Bloomberg DaybreakSee 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Bloomberg Surveillance
Bloomberg Surveillance: Mary Barra's Buyback Plan

Bloomberg Surveillance

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 29, 2023 43:34 Transcription Available


Mary Barra, GM CEO, discusses the company's announcement of its biggest-ever buyback plan, and says she expects 'strong adoption' of more affordable EVs. Thierry Wizman, Macquarie Global Interest Rates & Currencies Strategist, says the biggest risk right now is another sudden shock in the oil market. Scott Nuttall, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts Co-CEO, discusses his firm's acquisition of insurer Global Atlantic. Lara Rhame, FS Investments Chief US Economist, says the state of services in the economy could threaten the Fed's 2% inflation goal. Howard Marks, Oaktree Capital Co-Chairman & Co-Founder, reflects on the legendary life and career of Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger. David Rubenstein, Carlyle Group Co-Founder, previews brand-new episodes of Bloomberg's "The David Rubenstein Show: Peer to Peer Conversations" featuring AIG CEO Peter Zaffino and Pershing Square CEO Bill Ackman. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance  Full Transcript: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene, along with Jonathan Ferrell and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best an economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. John Ferrell with Mary Burrow, I want to go through some of the numbers for our audience. Divid end up thirty three percent, biggest ever buyback plan ten billion dollars, forty billion dollar name yesterday. Just some context perspective there that is massive inquiring minds. Mary will want to know why have you decided to deliver a ten billion dollar buy back shortly after you've signed a labor contract that adds nine point three billion to expenses over its term. Well, as we looked at what was happening from a labor perspective, we had built and really the labor environment going into our negotiations, we had put conservative estimates into our plan. So although it was a little higher than what we expected, we believe that we have and our guidance for next year, we've already said that we'll be able to offset that completely with the plan that we already had of a two billion dollar cost out perspective. So we did the right thing to recognize our manufacturing team members who have done a great job and continue to build vehicles safely with high quality. And we also thought that we've got to look and make sure that we're balanced across all of our stakeholders, and our owners are very important. So we think this was a very balanced response when we look at what was done from a labor perspective and what we're doing as part of our capital allocation framework for our owners. Well, let's get into that. So shareholders are super happy. The name is up by almost eleven percent so far this morning. I wonder if you aw Wiz Mary, they didn't get the forty percent they wanted. They got twenty five plus cost of living adjustments and other things as well. Is the old things of this morning not something that concerns you. When I look at it, I think it's balanced. Again, we have very well compensated and you know, when you look at the suite of benefits that our represented team members have it's a very very appropriate package and frankly leading from an industry perspective broader than just the auto industry. So I think we did the right thing to recognize and reward the hard work of our manufacturing team members across the board. But also one of the things our manufacturing team members very much value is job security. And to have job security, you have to have a strong company and you have to look at all of your stakeholders. So what we did from a share buyback perspective for our owners is I think a very balanced response. As you know, this move this morning not just about the capital return program, also about cost cuts. We know you're looking to fully offset that labor contract the additional costs from it. Have you identified where you will cut where you need to cut? Yes, a lot of this was already underway. At the beginning of this year calendar year twenty twenty three, we announced it too, billion dollar cost reduction structural cost reduction between twenty three and the end of twenty four. That's well underway. As I said, we also comprehended that we would have increases in our labor cost as we looked at what the environment was and also wanting to reward our manufacturing employees. So you know there's work going across many aspects of the business and including making our products more efficient while still having the features, the functionality and beautiful designs that our customers want. So there's been a concentrated effort at the company to lower our fixed costs while enabling wonderful products and rewarding the team that is helping us deliver them. Clearly, these are additional costs. Are they forcing a change in execution or a change in strategy? Definitely not a change in strategy. Our strategy is clear. It's really based on four pillars of executing our strong internal combustion engine program vehicles, and we see we're performing very well in the market and we see that we're below the average incentives. I think that speaks to the strength of our internal combustion engine products. From an EVY perspective, we have confidence in the portfolio we have. We're a bit disappointed this year that we were constrained by the automation to build modules. So this is not something that is fundamentally an issue with Altium. It was more manufacturing automation issue that we're working and we'll be out of it by middle of next year and making improvement every quarter from that perspective. Also software and this year. Earlier this year, Mike Abbott joined our team who brings tremendous software expertise and he's built a very strong team that we'll share more about when we get to our investor day in March of next year. And then autonomy and when you look at autonomous vehicles and the importance of this technology and the talent that we have at Cruise. We are doing an independent review from an incident perspective but also overall from a safety perspective, and that will guide our path forward there. But we have a very capable team there. So the four pillars of our strategy have not changed at all. What has changed is our tactics, and our tactics are changing because of the world is changing. We never thought that the EV adoption would necessarily be a straight line. We've seen this in other markets, we're seeing it now in the US. But I think the thing that everybody has to remember, if the growth is slowing, it is still growing. And we think as we get more of the EV products we have this year into next, we think we're going to see is strong adoption for our products, and as the charging infrastructure continues to be more robust, we think that's going to drive adoption as well as having affordable evs. And that's where when you look at the Chevrolet Equinox as well as the Blazer and the Bolt that's coming, we're going to be having products in that range of affordable vehicles. That is going to be very important from EV adoption. Two things to unpack there. One is robot taxis. The other is EV. So let's deal with robot taxis. First, your counting expenses on crews substantially, just how committed are you there? I remember only a number of years ago we were talking about bringing in fifty billion in revenue by twenty thirty, and I get it. Married We'll understand that new tech is tough to develop, its to deploy. I think we're seeing that across a range of issues. But when do you know if it's the right time just to walk away from this well, I think the first of all, when you look at the progress that the Cruise team has made over the eight last eight years when General Motors acquired crews, I think it's substantial and we've already demonstrated that the cruise vehicle can perform at a level that's safer than a human driver. Let's not forget over forty thousand people on average lose their lives in traffic accidents in the US alone, and ninety percent of them are caused by human error. What we have learned with this incident is it's got to be significantly better than a human driver to drive adoption, and we have to do a much better job of working with the regulators. That's something that GM has a long reputation of working and being transparent with regulators at the local, state, and federal level. So I think as we do that and get the results of the independent review we're doing, that will guide us on our path forward. From an AV perspective, I'm always interested in how we know when we're wrong an exit size I think everyone has to go through, including myself married. But on this topic of EV's the slow down, what's behind it and why aren't we just learning that American consumers just don't want these cars? Well, I don't think it's that American consumers just don't want these cars. I think there still is limited availability when you look at the choice that customers had today, from an internal combustion vehicle perspective, I think a lot of the evs that are out right now are more expensive. You've got to look at where the sweet spot of the market is, and when you really want to win an EV's you've got to make sure that you are meeting the customer who only owns one vehicle. That's the bulk of people who buy vehicles today, new vehicles. They only own one vehicle or if they have two in their family. They're needed every day to earning their livelihoods. So we've got to get affordable. There's got to be a robust charging infrastructure. So again, the growth hasn't gone in reverse. It's slowing. I think we never expected. We thought it would be have some bumps along the way. I think that's what we're seeing right now. But I think when we have evs that are affordable, when people realize how much fun they are to drive and the performance and they're not giving anything up, and then that all important charging infrastructure, I think you know we're going to see them start to grow at a more rapid break again. And that's something that we'll continue to watch. And that's why we've changed some of our tactics to be responsive to where the customer is. You've been super generous with your time. Marriage. Just want to fit in one further question. Right now, you're a forty three billion dollar name. It's a big move this morning by ten percent. The forward multiple we're talking about four times expected earnings a little more than that after today's move. The stock has been dead money for the best part of a decade. You've been doing this a long time. I know you're super close with investors. What is it that you think is in this plan, this strategy that you have and a strategy that you've suggested this morning hasn't changed that's going to turn this around. Well, I think demonstrating our commitment to all of our stakeholders and the I think when you look at a ten billion dollar accelerated buyback program, it should signal because it means we have confidence in the cash generation ability of this company. We have confidence in our strategy across the four pillars that I covered. Yes, we had some challenges that this year with our ultim based evs that I think gabe investors some concern, But we're demonstrating the confidence that we and the board have that we're executing the strategy, and we're going to see growth, strong cash flow and strong margins. That's what we're going to deliver. That's captured in today's move nine percent. Mary, appreciate your time ready tell you thanks for catching up with us, Mary Parda of GM too. Wiseman joins us right now. Global Efects interest rate strategist much more than that at Macquarie, with lots and lots of experience on this. I love the first sentence of your note. Don't believe the hype You've been skeptical. Are you combining and dovetailing in with your low rate call a true slowdown in the economy? Yes? Absolutely. I think the narrative these days from Wall Street that I've seen in the last few weeks is that the reason the ten year field has been coming down is because we're in a disinflationary phase here in the economy, and there's going to be more disinflation to come in the US. I agree with that we are going to see disinflation in the US. It's going to come in rants, it's going to come in those eras of the CPI that are linked to consumer discretionary spending. But let's Also keep in mind one of the reasons we're going to see this disinflation is because the consumer is slowing. And there you have the don't believe the hype story, right, I don't believe the story is about record breaking Black Thursdays, by Friday sales and Cyber Monday sales. I think what I think these sales were on the back of heavy discounting. If you look at what some of these corporate execs had said prior to the start of the holiday spending season, they talked about having to cut prices. We'll all Marty even talked about deflation. So this is this is about disinflation. But let's keep in mind where this this inflation is going to come from. It's going to come from a weakening and pricing power at the consumer product and services level. It's going to be driven by slow down in agurate demand in the US. Also about how they're pank for this stuff Binapailita. You look at some of the numbers just booming. What do you take away from that? So my takeaway is from a macroeconomic perspective, what it does is it shifts spending to the early part of the season because normally you would have to save up a few more shekels as you approach your deadline on December twenty fifth to get those purchases done with by now, pay later. You don't need to do that, so it allows you to spend earlier, especially if you don't have access to revolving credit or credit cards. So I think that's another reason why we might have seen the so called record breaking days on last Friday and Monday. But again, if that's if it's the case that spending was only pulled forward, it doesn't mean that in aggregate for the whole of the season we're going to get that much that much hype. So far, people have viewed weaker US data as a positive. It's both been for a bond rally and a stock rally, And you're saying that we could see that bond rally continue quite significantly going forward. Will there be a diversion so in terms of risk asseesis or have to be to fuel a bond rally that goes much deeper than where we are now. Absolutely, to let the bond rally extend to say where the ten yure yield gets the three percent, I do think it has to be associated with a sell off at risk assets. I don't think you know, to get that kind of forceful move early in the bond market, you need to have some sort of dislocation in risk ASTs, some sort of drop in stocks, but over time, not necessarily. I think we can see a situation where, if this inflation continues slowly, you get the bond deal going down to where it was, let's say in the spring. Three and a half percent is not inconceivable without a stock market drop as long as it happens slowly and steadily. But well, corporations adapt. If I go back to bear Stearns, where you're held court, you had an entire security analysis team looking at these slowdowns, I don't buy the gloom. And the corporations, like General Motors, will adapt. I'm not sure what they're going to adapt to. Technological progress and changes. They can adapt to. Government policies that spur more investment in electric vehicles and clean energy technologies they can adapt to. But what do you do when you have excess inventory as the auto dealers do? Now? What do you do when the banks and the finance companies are cutting off credit to auto buyers? What do you do? Then you're not in control of that situation. You're in control of what's happening on your factory floor, You're in control of promotions, and maybe the way you adapt is by cutting prices. Let's face it, that's a way of adapting to to hold on to market share in the face of excess inventories, in the face of consumers slowing their demand. So yeah, they can adapt, but it's not necessarily in a way that is going to make their stock prices shoot up. You've identified a series of places in this economy where we could see lower prices retail, Walmart, talked about the auto makers, We're talking about GM, maybe lower prices, going to see that come through the pipeline soon. What's the biggest threat that still lingers for you? The biggest threat to that view that this disinflation continue through next year, it's supply shocks. I think the lesson of twenty twenty twenty two and early twenty twenty three was that we cannot control what happens in the rest of the world, especially as it pertains to the supply of oil, the supply of natural gas. So from my perspective, if we get another shock in that market, and by the way, it doesn't have to be because of a war, although in the past two years that has been the case. It could be simply that OPEC plus decides to curtail supply and we get a brand going back up to the low nineties as a result of that. Again, it's a question of how much they curtail supply by, but that's the biggest risk right now. The good news is that gasoline prices in the US have been falling for six weeks straight, I think, and steadily. I think that's going to show up in the CPI by the time we rolled around to seeing the November numbers and the December numbers. But the real reason that the CPI is going to still see disinflation is because rents rents in the new tenant market and the new lease market are coming down. That's going to put a lot of pressu ultimately on the yellows as measures of rents of primary residences. We're going to get that disinflation over the next few months. This is exactly what nil Data of Renaisance Macro is talking about tom the disinflation that's in the pipeline for rents for used cars, which is why based on what Walla said yesterday, it's not that much of an if for the likes of Terry, for the likes of Nil Duta, which is why they think you're going to get this conversation early next year about which you said interest rates. Yeah, there's no question there's a school of thought out there that this is not if. It's just simply when in the path to it. But I would dovetail it back to the labor economy, which we've barely touched on today, and we've got claims coming up here Thursday. And then you mentioned the late jobs report for November. I believe it's December eighth. But the basic idea here, John is when does a labor economy finally go? If you get a labor economy to go, you get there instantly. Claims two O nine, keep going back to two nine claims to eighty one economy in so many different ways over the last eighteen months or so. Terry, it's going to see it, Terry wi there at Macquarie longer going far away. There was KKR nineteen seventy six with history made in a style and a method. At KKR it was original. Shanale Basset gets an update from their co CEO Shanale, Good morning, Thank you, Tom. I'm standing by with the co CEO of KKR, Scott not All, and it is a really big day for KKR because they are doing this. They're buying the rest of Global Atlantic, a big insurance company that they don't already own. That is an all cash, two point seven billion dollar deal. But you're also creating a new unit at KKR that houses a core private equity business. If you had to give the market one way to understand what you're trying to do over there, what is it? First of all, Shanali, great to be with you, Thanks for having me. Really, what we're trying to do today is lay out the big three growth engines we have as a firm. So you're right, we are buying the minority stake in Global Atlantic we don't already own. We already owned sixty three percent of the companies, so we're buying the other thirty seven percent. Global Atlantic has been a great partnership for us. This is a transaction we did in twenty twenty one. The company is more than doubled since we announced the original deal in July of twenty twenty and it's been highly recurring a lot of growth earnings for KKR, so that's part one. We are also modifying our compensation ratios so our asset management business continues to scale. Our run rate management fees have doubled over the last three years. So the second thing we're doing is reducing the compensation ratioon fees, making an offsetting increase on kerry, and that will allow us to create more fee related earnings for our shareholder. You're changing the way you pay people, in effect, not the aggregate amount of compensation, but we're providing more of the fee related earnings to our shareholders, a little bit more carry to our people. The net of that is about neutral, but it will mean more of few related earnings overall. And then the third thing we're doing to your point, and this is relatively new for us, is we're creating a new segment for the firm. So we've historically reported as asset management and insurance. We are adding a new segment called Strategic Holdings. And what we will include in there are the dividends that we're receiving and will begin to receive in greater magnitude from our core private equity portfolio, which is a portfolio of great diversified recession resistant companies that we've been building up over the last several years. KKR, Apollo, Brookfield, they're all buying insurance companies. All of you are diversifying in pretty meaningful ways if you think about it. It's made private equity, by the dollars, by the assets under management, a smaller part of all of your businesses. What does this mean for the future of private equity? Private equity is still a growth business for us. We expect to continue to grow that part of KKR for a long time, both with respect to the flagship strategies, but also we've created a number of different growth strategies. The core private equity business is part of private equity that's now a thirty billion dollar franchise for us. So this isn't about an ore. This is about an and we see an ability to grow PE and all the other parts of KKR, and we've diversified meaningfully over the course of the last ten to fifteen years. We're just continuing our way down that path. Now, what does Global Atlantic exactly do. It seems like what it's really doing is giving you a whole balance sheet to be using to compete on you've mentioned capital markets is one place there's been a lot of competition from your industry to the banks. How does this help you now compete in a bigger way? Sure, Global Atlantic, as you know, it's largely issued annuities to individuals, and so if you think about what we do at KKRE, we work for pensioners, retirement retirees all around the world now family offices and individual investors as well. Global Atlantic distributes its products to that same kind of an audience. So historically we've worked for tens of millions of retirees. We still do, but now they're just in the form of policyholders. And that's our mission at KKR is to actually do a great job for all those people that we work for. We're not confused about who our bosses are. And so to the second part of your question on capital markets, what Global Atlantic allows us to do is create more synergy. We didn't necessarily see all this three years ago when we started our way down this path, but we think there's even more we can do to unlock value between the two companies, and capital markets is just one of those examples. Capital markets means you might be appearing on more and more deals lending a balance sheet to provide capital for big buyouts and other leverage loan deals. That's right, and we're already in that business. So the way that we built our capital markets business is by partnering with a Street, So we'll be alongside of the traditional banks and investment banks as we built that business. But what Global Atlantic brings us is an ability to expand the vision for that franchise. So there's more to do across asset based finance. As an example, more, when Global Atlantic does their large institutional block transactions, we can put some of the Global Atlantic balance sheet. GA has its own sidecard third party capital funds called IVY, so some can go into those third party funds, and then we can syndicate the excess through our capital markets forranchise as well. Just like we do private equity and infrastructure transactions, it applies to insurance deals as well. Something interesting about these deals is that you already have told investors this morning that this will add twenty percent to total operating earnings. You're boosting your targets into twenty twenty six for few related earnings. What are the real financial impacts? What can stockholders feel for KKR over the next two three years, well, I think what they'll be able to see is we are going to grow all three of our recurring forms of earnings in a much more meaningful way going forward, So a few related earnings will be higher. We continue to see a lot of organic growth in our businesses. Just by changing our compensation ratios, you get accretion on few related earnings, and we think by virtue of what we're renouncing today, we can do even more. With the Global Atlantic where we invest that portfolio, it's already gone from seventy two billion of AUM when we announced the transaction to one hundred and fifty eight billion over the last few years. We think we can do even more together. But they'll also see more insurance operating earnings, which we believe are highly recurring and fast growing. And then we'll have this third element, which will be the core private equity dividends showing up in the strategic holding segment. If you put those three things together, we think that'll be seventy percent or more of our overall pre tax income is those three forms of recurring earnings, and we're going to introduce them a new metric around that called operating earnings and we'll talk about that later today with our shareholders. Scott, we do have to leave it there. Thank you for joining us on a big day over at KKR. Tom shout on the basic Thank you so much with a gentleman from KKR in the future of what they do, joining us now, Lawyer. I'm chief US economist at FS Investments. On an eight point nine percent nominal GDP America, Laurie, what's so great about your economics is you've got it from the litmus paper of the FX market. How alone is the United States with an eight point nine percent nominal GDP. When Rishie Sonak is telling Francy Qua he's worried about austerity, I think we are still the growth continued to just surprise to the upside, and to me, it's remarkable the inconsistency between talking about rake cuts to you know, this idea that we're going to need rake cuts in the near term to support the economy, or the short term idea that we've seen the labor market slow. And really we do feel like we're an economy and the data would show that we're an economy firing on all cylinders. Government, business bending, consumption the only keys that's not really adding to it as residential construction. I would say that we are the standalone leader on growth. And what's so important here, Lisa, A nominal GDP topline, that's real GDP posts inflation is there's an assumption here by the Bill Ackmans of the world economists and not that it's going to plunge down to what six percent, five percent? Even that's a boom economy. And when you say it, they're talking the inflation component. And Laura, that's what I want you to weigh in on. How much does it matter if we see a slow down do we need to slow down if we continue to see the pace of disinflation that we've seen so far this year. I think there's two pieces to that argument. To me, the real and one place from probably off consensus is I am really reticent to think that we are going to get this magical slow down in inflation back to that two percent lane that we have had. On the good side, we have a lot of indications that just from some slower demand and from some of these resolutions and inventory that we're going to see lower goods prices. But I think we are really ignoring the big elephant in the room, which is services. We still have a hot labor market by my measure, we still have wage pressure that is way higher than prior to the pandemic, and the resting heart rate of inflation is still well above two percent. And on the services side really is the problem here. So I think we need to be careful about being very complacent about inflation coming down, and that really feeds into this non recessionary rate decline Goldilocks complacency that has taken hold of equity markets at this moment. In some ways, the Fed's wall are really kind of fed into that yesterday, which is a reason why maybe he gave Steams some of these market movements. He said, there is just no reason to say you would keep rates really high and inflation is back at target, how high is the threshold then to cut rates. If we do see the disinflation in the pipeline significant, it might not be long lasting because of some of these other issues, but we do see year over year comps come in with autoprice disinflation or outright deflation with rents coming in, with the fact that goods, as Walmart said, just prices are actually going down outright. I think the FED is good at looking around the corner on especially this rent issue. There's no doubt that rent is a very lagging indicator, but it's sticky for a reason. And all of the short term indicators that you know, six months ago were really pointing to rents coming down fast have now reversed. And I think something that's very important to me is the fact that rents are far below the cost that it is to buy a home per square foot. You are costing you a lot less to rent, and landlords are rational. They're going to see this, and they are going to over the next several quarters, you know, push rents higher again. So it's something that you just can't ignore in the core, even if you get the headline hitting two percent. I get nervous when the FED tries to micro manage the inflation process, Laura, and this with your overarching philosophy of summing all this together, are we beyond the pandemic? It sure doesn't feel like it to me. It feels like the stimulus is still pop and popping, popping. But from where you sit, are we beyond COVID Not? In the data, Tom, I think we're seeing this trampoline effect and the Q three GDP numbers are great example of that, and we had a big inventory, you know, push higher. We could very well get that. Still detracting from the fourth quarter, you're still getting some of these big swings in factors that are disguising what's going on underneath with demand which is still really red hot. So this is a big to me, you know, piece that we're looking at. For twenty twenty four, we start to see some move away from reliance on savings towards income. I think the irony is it could be a period of lower growth next year, but actually better sentiment about household economics as you see income finally catch up to the prior year and a half of inflation. Okay, I'm gonna pinion down it. Give me some twenty twenty four lower outlook numbers, real GDP. What do you think? Real GDP one point four and I think the tenure stays pretty high. I'm putting it at four percent for twenty twenty four. I mean, these are Lisa, these are huge slow down numbers. And then the question comes over immediately, what does non farm payrolls do? David Kelly, a JP Morgan would say goes negative well and This is really the ultimate question, Laura, do we get that kind of slow growth but high yield along with a full, fully employed America, along with job creation that continue to chugle all. I think that we look at the recessions that we've had in the two thousands, twy tens, even the nineteen nineties, we saw very little. If you look at nineteen ninety two thousand recessions, we saw very little drop and output, but a massive decline in labor in this I think upcoming year we're going to see a slower economy, but I think that companies continue to view labor as a scarce resource. I think the true Goldilocks is not going to be defined by output. It's going to be defined by the labor market, and we are going to see the I think the unemployment rates stay quite low. Lar. Thank you. We FS investment slower rhyme this morning there were a one point four percent called slower economy year. Howard Marks, chairman of oak Tree Capital Management, and I must point out author of not one, two, but three important books on investing of What to Do and just as importantly Howard What Not to Do. Howard on Charlie Munger getting the odds on your side. How did Charlie Munger get the odds on his side? He started off with a brilliant mind and a brilliant partner. He intensively studied the financials, thinking about the long term. He never tried to guess what a company or a stock would do in the short term. And he held for many years. You know, he was a great practitioner. Sit on your hands, and he did it flawlessly in the modern day, in the modern media, I remember reading those annual reports. How are years ago there was no financial media, there was no blogging internet. The short termism we're living it now. What is the lesson of Charlie Munger's long termism? Well, if you want to hit the long ball, you have to be very patient, and you know, when the stock moves up the first twenty percent, you can't start taking profits. Charlie and Warren have held things for decades. And the other thing is they were and Charlie always talked about this, you have very few moonshots. Charlie said within the last year that most of his wealth came from four decisions. And so you know what would have happened if he would have started trimming those four decisions early he certainly would not have accomplished what he did, and I think Warren would the same thing. Maybe the number four would be a little different with Warren, but you know, you know, Warren's famous for having said, put all your eggs in one basket. And I watched the basket really closely, and I think that it wasn't one basket. But the idea of concentration and patience coupled with good decisions makes for a great success. You know, a concentration and patience don't accomplish anything if you can't make above average investment decisions. But putting it all together is the formula for success. Howard, you wrote in some of your thoughts about Charlie Mungerth that he had very definite opinions, in particular regarding the investment management industry. He viewed the industry with considerable skepticism, and while a member of it, I found myself in agreement with him more often than not. What exactly are you talking about in particular? You know, I think both Charlie and Warren felt that our industry, relatively few members of it made substantial contributions to their clients wealth. Many more members that were well paid. He was always one who questions incentives. He says, you give me incentive, an incentive, I'll tell you the behavior. And and I think that, you know, I think that Warren and Charlie, if you're their operation, they, in fact Warren's ed and quotes, not a partnership, not a corporation of partnership. And they considered there there the people they manage money for their shareholders to be their partners. And they considered themselves to be working for their partners and not themselves, and their own wealth and success was a byproduct of working of doing great work for the partners. So you know, I like to put my sameself in the same boat. Those sentiments appeal to me greatly, and I've tried to follow that. How difficult has it been to sort of to adapt the strategy to different eras When you had conversations with Charlie Munger, there are questions around tech and how that changed the investment thesis. How did they think about the changing concept of what a wonderful company looked like and what fair value was. You know, you, on the one hand, you have to evolve with the times. On the other hand, you know they never went a full bore into the tech sector. You know, their famous are having made a lot of money with Apple, but you know, most tech the way they said it, they put it on the too hard pile. And if you have if you understand that your success will come from a small number of holdings, that means you don't need twenty thirty thirtyfty sixty. You don't need to exploit all the sceptors. You just have to find a few great ones. Of course, on the other hand, you know Tom said that we're you know, we're in a new era with all the communications we have. Part of what that means is that the world is a more interconnected, intelligent place. You know, back fifty years ago we used to be able to exploit things nobody else knew. Today there's very little information that doesn't make its waste speedily around the world. Howard to help us with one final question here to the management the future management of Berkshire Hathaway. They have a from COVID buildup of cash a four hundred and twelve billion out to half a trillion dollars five hundred and twenty five trillion. You and everybody else out there is living with explosive money market fund growth. You know the story in that forward here for Berkshire, Hathaway, what's the best use of there in our mounds of cash? You know, the people who run Berkshire today and will run it tomorrow understand the limitations of size. All things being equal, size makes it harder to outperform. They have the best probability of outperforming of any company their size, but their size will matter. And you know one of my professors at University of Chicago. I asked him afterwards, how would you manage a big fund? He'd say, I would index the cord and manage the hell out of the periphery. And I would imagine that at their size, they'll have to move in the direction of something like that, although they will not give up on outperformance. Howard Marx, thank you with oak Tree Capital Management. In remembrance of Charlie. I'm so pleased that we get to speak with Tipenstein, co founder and co chair of Carlisle Group, host of Peer to Peer Conversations on Bloomberg Television, because David is somebody who talks with all the executives across Wall Street, Main Street and beyond to understand how they're dealing with some of these transformative technologies of the moment, and David, I want to start there kind of where the similarities are in how some of these executives are thinking about the developments and artificial intelligence in a generative AI. Well, everybody wants to be an expert on AI and figure out how it's going to affect their company positively or negatively, but honestly, nobody really knows for sure yet how it will work. We're really inning one of artificial intelligence in terms of how major companies are going to use it or have it used against them. So everybody's trying to hire artificial experts or get people into their firm who can help them assess whether artificial intelligence is going to be useful to them or helpful to them, And nobody really knows yet, So I can't say anybody is certain how it's going to impact their business yet. David, mister Zevino stealed Marsh mcclennan and others, and then Nannie goes to AIG where different than other executives, he has to deal with disaster. What did you learn about how he handles the unexpected? Well, insurance is about dealing with the unexpected, really, and so AIG became the largest insurance company in the world for many, many years, and as a result of that, it had enormous tentacles throughout the entire financial complex. It clearly extended itself too much, didn't anticipate problems that arose, particularly in the mortgage area, and as a result had to be bailed out by the US government to tune of about one hundred and eighty billion dollars. Now that money's been paid back with interest. But AIG is no longer the biggest insurance company in the world, and it doesn't have quite the tentacles around the world that it once did, but still a very profitable company. David and Newsmaker yesterday. This is what Rubinstein does. He's steering the thunder from journalist David Rubinstein with Bill Ackman yesterday and the track that this nation will take. What did you learn from mister Rackman, David Rwinstein. Well, Bill is a very impressive person who obviously is outspoken, has been outspoken on many issues over many years. Recently has become quite visible in what he's been saying about Harvard. But he said in the interview which will air not too long from now that he's made a new bet. He's made a number of macro bets that have turned out to be extremely positive. One of them, he made it over one hundred times his money on a bet that he made a number of years ago in the time of COVID. Now he's made a bet that interest rates will be cut sooner by the Fed than is otherwise expected. And if that bet is successful, I guess he'll make a fair amount of money. But that's the big issue that many people are grappling with. Will the Fed decide and it needs to lower interest rates before the political season starts, let's say, in the summer or the fall of next year. Dave, excuse me, go ahead, Lisa, please my fault. David, is it surprising to you that a big hedge fund is focused on making big bets on treasuries right now? Well, many hedge funds people are doing that. Honestly, he has not done the so called treasury trade that others have done, where he's buying treasuries and shorting treasury futures. He hasn't done that. This is basically a bet that the Fed will succumb to some pressure to lower interest rates before too long. Now, the conventional wisdom in Wall Street is that the Fed will lower interest rates at some point during their first or second quarter, more likely the second quarter. I think his bet is it'll probably do it sooner than the conventional wisdom. And I have said publicly before, and I still think it's the case that the Fed will get in trouble if it lowers interest rates around the political season, because the Republicans will say, well, you're helping Joe Biden by lowering interest rates if you do so over the summer or in the early fall. So the Fed is going to lower interest rates, probably to avoid political criticism. It don't have to do it sooner than later. David, you mentioned mister Ackman in Harvard in the Horror of the Eastern Mediterrane. I want to go to your Duke University where they have a bridge. Folks. There's an old bridge called the Free Expression Bridge. And to make a long story short, they had to paint over a pro Palestinian tone as well. David, I want you to talk to the great and good right now about how those of means and success should deal with their shock at our American universities. Well, the American university system is still the envy of the world, and our private universities are really the places that people from all over the world want to attend. There's been a shock that many people didn't realize how strong the anti Israel feeling has been in some campuses, and the result of that has been outraged by some alums. Some universities have handled this better than other universities. I am the chairman of the board of the University of Chicago, and we have a tradition of not issuing statements on political matters or outside matters, and we have an issue one in this case. But in many cases other universities have not had that policy, and they've got in trouble for issuing statements that don't please one side or the other. It's a difficult way to walk his fine line, and I don't know that anybody has figured it out properly or correctly. David All glorious day for Bloomberg Surveillance with Doug cass and Howard Marks with us and membrance of Charlie Munger. Give us your thoughts on the hugely successful experiment that was Berkshire Hathaway. For those who don't know. Charlie Munger was from Warren Buffett's hometown of Omaha. He moved to Los Angeles and later reconnected with Warren Buffett, who hadn't really known before, but he had worked for Warren Buffet's grandfather at one point in a store. Charlie Munger was had outspoken, very very smart, a lawyer who transitioned from being a lawyer to being an investor, and his track record early on was actually better than Warren Buffett's in some respects. They teamed up became an incredible team of people who were mostly known to the public through their annual meetings where Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger would answer questions for six hours on end. And Charlie Munger was quite well known for his I would say, dismissive ideas of some other people's thoughts about investing. He was a very fundamentalist kind of investor and he transformed Warren Buffett. Warren Buffett was taught to buy things very cheap, and buy things cheap you can always make money. It was Charlie Munger's view that you should buy good companies. Maybe you pay a reasonable price for it, but buying good companies is better than buying cheap companies which may not be that good. And Warren Buffett gives a lot of credit credit to Charlie Munger for having transformed his views on the investment world. David, thank you for joining us today with us remember, and so Charlie Munger and of course with your excellence. Look for a conversation with Peter Zefino. Peer to peer conversations hugely anticipated in the next ten days. A conversation with Bill Eckman that move I would suggest move Markets. Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday starting at seven am Easter. I'm Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always I'm the Bloomberg Terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Tom Keen, and this is BloombergSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Hamburg heute
Warum die Sperrung des Citytunnels für Chaos bei der S-Bahn sorgt

Hamburg heute

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 9, 2023 12:14


Moin an alle, die mit dem Auto unterwegs sind: Morgen werden keine Strafzettel verteilt, denn die Knöllchenschreiber streiken. Das wird ein denkwürdiger Tag in Hamburg:) Heute war aber auch schon Chaos, und zwar bei der S-Bahn. Warum, das hört ihr hier! Viel Spaß dabei wünscht euch Maiken. Was war heute in Hamburg los? Maiken Nielsen und Ole Wackermann werfen im wöchentlichen Wechsel zum Tagesende einen Blick auf die News und das aktuelle Stadtgeschehen. Das sind die Nachrichten heute mit Maiken Nielsen am Donnerstag, 09. November 2023 +++SPERRUNG DES CITYTUNNELS SORGT FÜR ÄRGER IM S-BAHNVERKEHR+++ Die Sperrung des S-Bahn-Citytunnels am Jungfernstieg sorgt seit Montag für massive Probleme. Die Züge auf der Entlastungsstrecke über Dammtor sind zeitweise völlig überfüllt. Gedränge, Geschubse, Gereiztheit: Was sich momentan zur Rushhour in etlichen S-Bahnen abspielt, ist abschreckend. Alle Züge müssen über die Dammtorstrecke. Zwischen Altona und Hauptbahnhof sind sie teilweise so voll, dass Fahrgäste auf den Bahnsteigen nicht mehr in die Züge hineinpassen und auf den nächsten überfüllten Zug warten müssen. NDR 90,3 Verkehrsexperte Reinhard Postelt erklärt die Ursachen und weiß, ob es Alternativen gibt.

What the Dev?
Is this where you need a Chief AI Officer? - Episode 231

What the Dev?

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 3, 2023 17:36


Some say organizations today need a chief AI officer. Others, not so much. Tune in as David Rubinstein, editor-in-chief of SD Times, discusses the issue with Patrick Dougherty, the co-founder and CEO of Rasgo, a company that brings generative AI to the enterprise data warehouse.

ceo ai chief officer rasgo david rubinstein patrick dougherty
Inside the ICE House
Episode 319: David Rubenstein Does Due Diligence on “How to Invest”

Inside the ICE House

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 13, 2022 44:31


In his latest book, HOW TO INVEST: Masters on the Craft, author David Rubinstein, the co-Founder and Non-Executive Chairman of The Carlyle Group, combines his own experience in thousands of Carlyle investment committee meetings with new interviews with the world's most successful investors. The result is a multi-stop journey through the minds of those who've made a mint in mainstream, alterative, and cutting edge investments. In his return visit to Inside the ICE House, David talks about what's been keeping him busy, from Carlyle to his TV show, and a few thoughts on investing in pro sports teams…   Inside the ICE House: https://www.theice.com/insights/conversations/inside-the-ice-house

Bulls in the Ring
Degenerated: The David Rubinstein Story

Bulls in the Ring

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 14, 2022 65:15


This week we do a little something different and take a deep dive into Reagan Youth front man, David Rubinstein. This is one fucked up story

reagan youth david rubinstein
The Friendly Podcast Guide
Episode 25: Moms Don't Have Time to Read Books

The Friendly Podcast Guide

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 5, 2022 12:56


Zibby Owens launched her award-winning, top literary podcast (according to Oprah.com) Moms Don't Have Time to Read Books in 2018. She has interviewed more than 900 authors, including many celebrities (Natalie Portman, Alicia Keys, Lena Dunham), politicians (Hillary Clinton, First Lady Jill Biden), athletes (Andre Agassi), chefs (Christina Tosi, Kwame Onwuachi), notable business leaders (David Rubinstein, Ray Dalio), physicians, poets, children's book authors, hundreds of New York Times bestselling and beloved novelists and memoirists, and many debut authors looking to break out.  Links from the Episode: - FPG Bookshop.org Account - Zibby Owens Media Website - Moms Don't Have Time to Read Books Website - Moms Don't Have Time to Read Books Instagram  - Zibby's Bookshop.org Account - Stephen A. Schwarzman, WHAT IT TAKES  - Dr. Jill Biden, WHERE THE LIGHT ENTERS - Seth Meyers, I'M NOT SCARED, YOU'RE SCARED

Afrobility: Africa Tech & Business
#49: Glo (Globacom) - How the private telecommunications company expanded across Nigeria & West Africa

Afrobility: Africa Tech & Business

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 15, 2022 115:49


Overview: Today we're going to talk about Globacom - The Nigerian telecommunications company. We'll explore the Globacom story across 5 areas: Nigerian telco sector context Globacom's early history Globacom's telco & non-telco businesses Globacom's potential exit options Outlook This episode was recorded on Apr 10, 2022 Companies discussed: Glo (Globacom), MTN, Airtel, NITEL (Nigerian Telecommunications Limited), Econet Wireless & 9mobile (Etisalat) Business concepts discussed: Telecommunications (Telco) strategy, Mobile money, Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNOs), Telco regulation, Celebrity advertising, Low-price telecoms strategy. Conversation highlights: (01:00) - Globacom background and why we're talking about it (07:40) - Globacom founding and spectrum auction (20:30) - Mike Adenuga background (30:20) - Globacom launch (44:36) - Globacom African Expansion (56:50) - Globacom core Telecom business (1:07:58) - Globacom non-telco business (1:19:50) - Competition and IPO / spinoff? (1:29:48) - Bankole's overall thoughts and outlook (1:40:10) - Olumide's overall thoughts and outlook (1:46:30) - Recommendations & small wins Olumide's recommendations & small wins: Thanks to Ifunanya Chiegboka for helping me think about Glo Story Recommendation: Marc Andreessen Blog archive ebook. Aggregates some of Marc's posts from the late 2000s. Insightful and very funny Small win: Hung out with my friend who was visiting from out of town (on a Wed night!) Interested in investing in Africa Tech with Olumide: Read about Adamantium fund & contact me at olumide@afrobility.com Founders looking for funding: If you're a B2B founder working on Education, Health, Finance or food, please contact me for funding at olumide@afrobility.com Bankole's recommendations & small wins: Recommendation: Invest Like The Best with David Rubinstein, We Need A Standard Unit Of Measure For Risk & The Next Google | DKB Small win: New whiteboard markers, changed the game. Good example of something small that changed the quality of my whiteboarding Other content: Nigerian Songs Referencing Mike Adenuga, Wizkid, Davido, Sunny Ade etc in Globacom advert & MTN - I don port commercial Investors, Operators, Entrepreneurs - We'd love to hear from you. Please email info@afrobility.com to share feedback or propose topics you'd like to hear.

How'd You Get THAT Job?!
Can coffee be a career? ADHD, dyslexia, and making four roles into one dream job

How'd You Get THAT Job?!

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 30, 2022 22:09


What if you loved coffee so much that you made it your career? That's exactly what David Rubinstein is doing — and it's working for his ADHD and dyslexia. In this episode, David shares how his unique combination of interests and learning differences led him on a career path with stops along the way as an electrician and as a champion cyclist. Today, as a coffee professional, he packs four jobs into one: barista, espresso machine technician, roaster, and teacher of all things coffee. All that action keeps David on his toes and engaged. David also talks about growing up with ADHD and dyslexia in a conservative Orthodox Jewish family. He explains how he was able to find community and understand his passions, and he encourages others to do what they love. Learn about how David's differences have been his biggest strengths — from speaking five languages to getting things done like Flash Gordon. And pick up a coffee fact or two along the way! To find a transcript for this episode and more resources, visit the episode page at Understood. We love hearing from our listeners. Email us at thatjob@understood.org. Understood is a nonprofit and social impact organization dedicated to shaping a world where the 1 in 5 people who learn and think differently can thrive. Learn more about How'd You Get THAT Job?! and all our podcasts at u.org/podcasts. Copyright © 2022 Understood for All, Inc. All rights reserved.

Life Intentions
30 | The vision within you (David Rubienstein)

Life Intentions

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 18, 2021 9:52


Turn your negative thoughts into everyday fuel. Maximize the potential within you by allowing positive , daily interaction, intentionally, that will change your life for ever. To listen to the full interview with Ed Myllet and David Rubinstein, follow this link below. https://open.spotify.com/episode/7ajAF5TURBYCoWuJP4INM3?si=xEBBZIhiQ2OmdGYzzKFA5A&context=spotify%3Ashow%3A19TdDBlFkqh7uevYO0jFSW

vision maximize david rubinstein
Get Connected
How To Lead: Wisdom from the World's Greatest Leaders

Get Connected

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 28, 2020 13:23


David Rubinstein is Chairman of the Boards of Trustees of the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts, the Smithsonian Institution, and the Council on Foreign Relations. His new book HOW TO LEAD: Wisdom from the World's Greatest CEOs, Founders, and Game Changers, features conversations about success with Jeff Bezos, Condoleezza Rice, Adam Silver and others.

Get Connected
How To Lead: Wisdom from the World's Greatest Leaders

Get Connected

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 28, 2020 13:23


David Rubinstein is Chairman of the Boards of Trustees of the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts, the Smithsonian Institution, and the Council on Foreign Relations. His new book HOW TO LEAD: Wisdom from the World's Greatest CEOs, Founders, and Game Changers, features conversations about success with Jeff Bezos, Condoleezza Rice, Adam Silver and others.

Radio Entrepreneurs
“Amazing Advances In Stormwater Management Technology” w/ David Rubinstein & Alex Bedig of Opti RTC

Radio Entrepreneurs

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 10, 2020 10:57


https://optirtc.com/ ————————————- FOLLOW RADIO ENTREPRENEURS Facebook: Radio Entrepreneurs LinkedIn: Radio Entrepreneurs Twitter: @BizOnTheRadio Instagram: @RadioEntrepreneurs Youtube: Radio Entrepreneurs iTunes: RadioEntrepreneurs Spotify: Radio Entrepreneurs Google Play: Radio Entrepreneurs Stitcher: Radio Entrepreneurs ————————————- Transcript: The post “Amazing Advances In Stormwater Management Technology” w/ David Rubinstein & Alex Bedig of Opti RTC appeared first on Radio Entrepreneurs.

Sports Equity Podcast
Sports Equity with David Rubinstein, Sell Like Hell Sales System

Sports Equity Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 8, 2020 37:43


Episode 12: David Rubinstein spent time over a decade in MLB, NHL, NBA and then broadcast TV, to then parlay that experience into a making a major impact on countless individuals and organizations with one of of my favorite sales training programs “Sell like Hell.”

The Tim Ferriss Show
#458: The Psychedelic News Hour: New Breakthroughs, Compound Comparisons and Warnings (Psilocybin/LSD/Ayahuasca/N,N-DMT/5-MeO-DMT), Treatment of Trauma, Scalable vs. Unscalable Approaches, Making Sense of “Bad” Trips, and Much More

The Tim Ferriss Show

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 3, 2020 98:32


The Psychedelic News Hour | | Brought to you by How to Lead: Wisdom from the World's Greatest CEOs, Founders, and Game Changers by David M. Rubenstein Welcome to another episode of The Tim Ferriss Show, where it is normally my job to deconstruct world-class performers of various types, of all ilks. In this special episode, the tables are turned. Instead of interviewing someone else, I am interviewed by two experts on several topics I’ve both studied and supported, including psychedelic-assisted psychotherapy and what it can do to heal trauma and—broadly speaking—possible futures for mental health. This audio was recorded on a new show, The Psychedelic News Hour, soon to be a podcast, and I’m in conversation with two people: David Rabin, MD, PhD, (@drdavidrabin), a board-certified psychiatrist and neuroscientist, executive director of The Board of Medicine, and co-founder of Apollo Neuroscience, and Molly Maloof, MD, (@drmolly.co), a physician, Stanford lecturer, and ketamine-assisted psychotherapist.This episode was recorded on Clubhouse, an app still in private beta and defined by their tagline: “Clubhouse is a space for casual, drop-in audio conversations—with friends and other interesting people around the world.” One final note: I recorded this on my phone, a necessity for using the app, so the audio quality isn’t studio quality, but it was polished as much as possible. Thank you for understanding, and thanks to everyone who joined and asked thoughtful questions. This episode is brought to you by the book How to Lead by David Rubenstein. David Rubenstein is one of the visionary founders of The Carlyle Group and host of The David Rubenstein Show, where he speaks to leaders from every walk of life about who they are, how they define "success," and what it means to lead. Jeff Bezos, Richard Branson, Warren Buffet, Bill Gates, Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Phil Knight, Oprah — all of them and more — are featured in his new book, titled How to Lead. This comprehensive leadership playbook illustrates the principles and guiding philosophies of the world’s greatest game-changers. In its pages, you can discover the experts’ secrets to being effective and innovative leaders. Past podcast guest Walter Isaacson had this to say: "Reading this invaluable trove of advice from the greatest leaders of our time is like sitting in an armchair and listening to the masters reveal their secrets.” Pick up a copy of How to Lead: Wisdom from the World’s Greatest CEOs, Founders, and Game Changers by David Rubinstein in hardcover, ebook, or audio anywhere books are sold. ***If you enjoy the podcast, would you please consider leaving a short review on Apple Podcasts/iTunes? It takes less than 60 seconds, and it really makes a difference in helping to convince hard-to-get guests.For show notes and past guests, please visit tim.blog/podcast.Sign up for Tim’s email newsletter (“5-Bullet Friday”) at tim.blog/friday.For transcripts of episodes, go to tim.blog/transcripts.Interested in sponsoring the podcast? Please fill out the form at tim.blog/sponsor.Discover Tim’s books: tim.blog/books.Follow Tim:Twitter: twitter.com/tferriss Instagram: instagram.com/timferrissFacebook: facebook.com/timferriss YouTube: youtube.com/timferriss

Podcast Notes Playlist: Latest Episodes
#456: The Power of Myth — The Hero’s Adventure with Joseph Campbell and Bill Moyers

Podcast Notes Playlist: Latest Episodes

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 27, 2020 60:10


Podcast Notes Key Takeaways  What is the moral objective of a hero?“The moral objective is that of saving people or saving a person or saving an idea. He is sacrificing himself for something” – Joseph CampbellTo become a hero, the character must often die (either physically or mentally) and then is resurrected as a new person:In a rite of passage to adulthood, the child must let their infant personality and psyche die in order to become an adultIf you don’t listen to what your spirit and heart want, you’re going to have a difficult life:“If the person doesn’t listen to the demands of his own spiritual and heart life and insists on a certain program, you’re going to have a schizophrenia crackup. The person has put himself off-center. He has aligned himself with a programmatic life and it’s not the one the body is interested in at all.” – Joseph CampbellIf you want to find out more about yourself, go on adventures and put yourself in new situations:“Life evokes our character and you find out more about yourself if you go on and it’s very nice to be able to put yourself in situations that will evolve your higher nature rather than your lower” – Joseph CampbellMythological stories are important because they acknowledge the many mysteries of life and the world: “It’s important to live life with a knowledge of its mystery and of your own mystery. And it gives life a new zest, a new balance, a new harmony to do this.” – Joseph CampbellBy saving yourself, you end up saving the world:“Any world is a living world if it’s alive and the thing is to bring it to life. And the way to bring it to life is to find in your own case where your life isn’t a be alive yourself.”  – Joseph CampbellDragons in mythology often represent greed. They are usually found guarding some sort of treasure like heaps of gold or virgins. Although the dragon can’t use either, it wants them both.The dragon can also represent your fears. Often what you seek is where you least want to look.“The real dragon is in you. That’s your ego holding you in.” – Joseph CampbellRead the full notes @ podcastnotes.orgThe Power of Myth — The Hero’s Adventure with Joseph Campbell and Bill Moyers | Brought to you by How to Lead: Wisdom from the World's Greatest CEOs, Founders, and Game Changers by David M. RubensteinWelcome to another episode of The Tim Ferriss Show, where it is normally my job to interview and deconstruct world-class performers of all different types.This episode flips the script, but you get a masterful interview in the process. and it features the first program or chapter—titled “The Hero's Adventure”—of the six-part series The Power of Myth. The series is simply incredible, and I found it oddly and profoundly calming. Here is a short description: “Forty years ago, renowned scholar Joseph Campbell sat down with veteran journalist Bill Moyers for a series of interviews that became one of the most enduringly popular programs ever on PBS. In dialogues that adroitly span millennia of history and far-flung geography, the two men discuss myths as metaphors for human experience and the path to transcendence.” You can listen to the full series on Audible. It has an average of 4.7 out of 5 stars with nearly 4,000 ratings. I highly recommend that you check it out. You won’t be disappointed. Please enjoy!This episode is brought to you by the book How to Lead by David Rubenstein. David Rubenstein is one of the visionary founders of The Carlyle Group and host of The David Rubenstein Show, where he speaks to leaders from every walk of life about who they are, how they define "success," and what it means to lead. Jeff Bezos, Richard Branson, Warren Buffet, Bill Gates, Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Phil Knight, Oprah — all of them and more — are featured in his new book, titled How to Lead. This comprehensive leadership playbook illustrates the principles and guiding philosophies of the world’s greatest game-changers. In its pages, you can discover the experts’ secrets to being effective and innovative leaders. Past podcast guest Walter Isaacson had this to say: "Reading this invaluable trove of advice from the greatest leaders of our time is like sitting in an armchair and listening to the masters reveal their secrets.” Pick up a copy of How to Lead: Wisdom from the World’s Greatest CEOs, Founders, and Game Changers by David Rubinstein in hardcover, ebook, or audio anywhere books are sold. ***If you enjoy the podcast, would you please consider leaving a short review on Apple Podcasts/iTunes? It takes less than 60 seconds, and it really makes a difference in helping to convince hard-to-get guests.For show notes and past guests, please visit tim.blog/podcast.Sign up for Tim’s email newsletter (“5-Bullet Friday”) at tim.blog/friday.For transcripts of episodes, go to tim.blog/transcripts.Interested in sponsoring the podcast? Please fill out the form at tim.blog/sponsor.Discover Tim’s books: tim.blog/books.Follow Tim:Twitter: twitter.com/tferriss Instagram: instagram.com/timferrissFacebook: facebook.com/timferriss YouTube: youtube.com/timferriss

The Tim Ferriss Show
#456: The Power of Myth — The Hero’s Adventure with Joseph Campbell and Bill Moyers

The Tim Ferriss Show

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 27, 2020 60:10


The Power of Myth — The Hero’s Adventure with Joseph Campbell and Bill Moyers | Brought to you by How to Lead: Wisdom from the World's Greatest CEOs, Founders, and Game Changers by David M. RubensteinWelcome to another episode of The Tim Ferriss Show, where it is normally my job to interview and deconstruct world-class performers of all different types.This episode flips the script, but you get a masterful interview in the process. and it features the first program or chapter—titled “The Hero's Adventure”—of the six-part series The Power of Myth. The series is simply incredible, and I found it oddly and profoundly calming. Here is a short description: “Forty years ago, renowned scholar Joseph Campbell sat down with veteran journalist Bill Moyers for a series of interviews that became one of the most enduringly popular programs ever on PBS. In dialogues that adroitly span millennia of history and far-flung geography, the two men discuss myths as metaphors for human experience and the path to transcendence.” You can listen to the full series on Audible. It has an average of 4.7 out of 5 stars with nearly 4,000 ratings. I highly recommend that you check it out. You won’t be disappointed. Please enjoy!This episode is brought to you by the book How to Lead by David Rubenstein. David Rubenstein is one of the visionary founders of The Carlyle Group and host of The David Rubenstein Show, where he speaks to leaders from every walk of life about who they are, how they define "success," and what it means to lead. Jeff Bezos, Richard Branson, Warren Buffet, Bill Gates, Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Phil Knight, Oprah — all of them and more — are featured in his new book, titled How to Lead. This comprehensive leadership playbook illustrates the principles and guiding philosophies of the world’s greatest game-changers. In its pages, you can discover the experts’ secrets to being effective and innovative leaders. Past podcast guest Walter Isaacson had this to say: "Reading this invaluable trove of advice from the greatest leaders of our time is like sitting in an armchair and listening to the masters reveal their secrets.” Pick up a copy of How to Lead: Wisdom from the World’s Greatest CEOs, Founders, and Game Changers by David Rubinstein in hardcover, ebook, or audio anywhere books are sold. ***If you enjoy the podcast, would you please consider leaving a short review on Apple Podcasts/iTunes? It takes less than 60 seconds, and it really makes a difference in helping to convince hard-to-get guests.For show notes and past guests, please visit tim.blog/podcast.Sign up for Tim’s email newsletter (“5-Bullet Friday”) at tim.blog/friday.For transcripts of episodes, go to tim.blog/transcripts.Interested in sponsoring the podcast? Please fill out the form at tim.blog/sponsor.Discover Tim’s books: tim.blog/books.Follow Tim:Twitter: twitter.com/tferriss Instagram: instagram.com/timferrissFacebook: facebook.com/timferriss YouTube: youtube.com/timferriss

CEO Adventures in Leadership
David Rubinstein -- Developing and Inspiring the Team

CEO Adventures in Leadership

Play Episode Listen Later May 18, 2020 28:15


David Rubinstein, CEO of Opti, explains how a generalist successfully manages a cutting edge engineering company. It's all about taking care of and encouraging team members so that everyone becomes intensely focused on meeting customer needs.

Radio Entrepreneurs
“Advanced Technologies To Forecast And Control Flooding Overflow” with David Rubinstein of Opti

Radio Entrepreneurs

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 15, 2020 13:10


https://optirtc.com/ ————————————- FOLLOW RADIO ENTREPRENEURS Facebook: Radio Entrepreneurs LinkedIn: Radio Entrepreneurs Twitter: @BizOnTheRadio Instagram: @RadioEntrepreneurs Youtube: Radio Entrepreneurs iTunes: RadioEntrepreneurs Google Play: Radio Entrepreneurs Stitcher: Radio Entrepreneurs ————————————- The post “Advanced Technologies To Forecast And Control Flooding Overflow” with David Rubinstein of Opti appeared first on Radio Entrepreneurs.

Get Down To Business with Shalom Klein
Get Down To Business with Shalom Klein – 2/12/2017 – Sharokina Pazand, David Rubinstein, Beth Rosen and Michelle Sinkovits

Get Down To Business with Shalom Klein

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 23, 2020 41:54


Join Shalom Klein on his weekly radio show, Get Down To Business with guests: Sharokina Pazand David Rubinstein Beth Rosen Michelle Sinkovits

SparrowCast
Importance Of Customer Feedback For Product-led Growth | SparrowCast with David Rubinstein

SparrowCast

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 14, 2019 7:50


David (Dudi) Rubinstein, Head of Customer Success and Services, Craft.io, speaks at SparrowCast on the importance of customer feedback for product-led growth.

The Customer Support Podcast
Episode 6: (B2B) David Rubinstein, VP Customer Success & Strategy, Reps.AI

The Customer Support Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 26, 2019 34:17


Key Insights o David introduced terminology — “Rep-first” and “Rep-experience” i.e., Focus on hiring and creating the best experience for agents in terms of giving them full knowledge about your product (especially the bad stuff). o Don't mix commercial aspects (renewal, upsell) into customer “success”. Just let them focus on on-boarding, adoption and value add. o Tools — Completely on Zendesk stack. For data insights, use Zendesk Insights and Google Data Studio. o Chatbots — not ready yet for primetime even for B2C. o Metrics — David said something very interesting here. “I tell my agents that don't think about the queue, its my problem. You focus on quality and answering right and answering good”. In summary, David measures himself on request-to-wait and his agents on CSAT, and one-touch resolution. o NPS — hit or a miss because customer is not necessarily rating just the support. David uses NPS, CSAT and monthly interviews with customers to get a pulse of his customer base.

Sales Babble Sales Podcast  | Sales Training | Sales Consulting |Sales Coaching
How to be a Sales Sherpa with the Hyperconnected David Fisher

Sales Babble Sales Podcast | Sales Training | Sales Consulting |Sales Coaching

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 26, 2017 51:37


How to be a Sales Sherpa with the Hyperconnected David Fisher Returning guest Dave Fisher and I meet at Sketchbook Brewing to discuss the publishing of his new book:  Hyperconnected Selling, Winning More Business by Leveraging Digital Influence and Creating Human Connection   Dave is a podcast host and consultant  trying to bring back the art of conversation to business.  In this episode we discuss the evolution of selling and what you can do  to better leverage the network you already have.  Dave explains how to be a Sales Sherpa and how to guide your prospects through the glut of information that overwhelms their buying experience. Selling Conversation and Points We Discuss Yes we talk about the beer and the value of balancing malt and hops. But we also discussed: Seller asymmetry, buyers have more information than the seller Appointment setting will get automated Enterprise sale will always need real people (at least in the next 10 years) It’s best to keep working in the same industry and grow industry knowledge Build industry relationships that lead to referrals Sharing insights to prospects will generate business If you hate your job and the industry, get out now   Enter here to WIN a FREE copy HYPERCONNECTED SELLING   Enter Here to Win Enter by October 10th!   Five names will be drawn!   How to Find David Fisher You find Dave all over the internet …. www.davidjpfisher.com Twitter @dfishrockstar LinkedIn Past Sales Babble episode with David In this episode, David tells us all about hyperconnected selling http://www.salesbabble.com/3-steps-start-hyper-connected-selling-david-fisher-129/ Me on the Beer, Beats and Business Podcast http://beerbeatsandbusiness.com/tag/pat-helmers/ Sketchbook Brewery Dave and I met at Sketchbook Brewing Co. a nanobrewery in Evanston, IL focused on sustainable, local, community supported brewing. Visit at 821 Chicago Ave, Evanston, IL 60202 Support our Sponsor Bluehost Sales babble is brought to you by Bluehost. Take your idea and start your business online. Sales Babblers can start for only $3.95/month FREE Domain Free Site Builders 1-Click WordPress Install 24×7 support Special intro offer and 30-day money-back guarantee Powering over 2 million websites worldwide Selling Mindset Here are past episodes that will upset your false beliefs and myths on selling.  Listen today!  Networking Tips 3 Steps To Start Hyper Connected Selling with David Fisher #129 Supercharge your Sales Memory with Brad Zupp 7 Habits of Highly Successful LinkedIn Users with Dennis Brown Small Business Sales Techniques an interview with Kent Zaretzke #75 How To Kickstart Your Networking in Sales with Evie Burke #56 Pleasantly Persistent Sales With Thomas Ellis #15 The Only Sales Guide You Will Ever Need Anthony Iannarino #130 Understanding the Value of Testimonials #126 What is Sales 3.0 with Shawn Karol Sandy #83 How to Sell Solopreneurs, an End-of-Year Survey with Larry Keltto #43 How To Sell Like Hell with David Rubinstein #42 How to Make $1 Million Dollars in Sales an Interview with Mike Schmidtmann #39 SB031 – How Sales Are Lost in the Beginning an Interview with Mark Whitehead 20 Minutes To A Performance Seller and  interview with  Rick Day #12 Four Ways To Stay Ahead of the Competition The post How to be a Sales Sherpa with the Hyperconnected David Fisher appeared first on Sales Babble Sales Podcast | Sales Training | Sales Consulting |Sales Coaching.

Her Money Matters
What To Know About Identity Theft With David Rubenstein | HMM 90

Her Money Matters

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 23, 2017 35:26


Identity theft is not anything we want to think about, but it happens and we need to be informed about it.  This week's guest is David Rubinstein and he is going to share with us his golden nuggets about identity theft. Enjoy! What you'll learn about in today's episode: A golden identity tip you don't want to miss Chipped cards, are they worth the extra time in line? The little-known trick with google alerts  For the complete set of show notes for this episode go to http://www.jenhemphill.com/90 Be sure to continue to join us in more money conversations in our FREE community over here: http://www.jenhemphill.com/community  Enjoy this episode and want more? Be sure to subscribe and leave us a review on iTunes: https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/her-money-matters-money-talk/id1006403754  By you doing that will help us reach more women like you. It's easy, here is how: http://jenhemphill.com/how-to-subscribe-and-leave-a-review-on-itunes/

Her Dinero Matters
HMM 90: What To Know About Identity Theft With David Rubenstein

Her Dinero Matters

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 22, 2017 35:16


Identity theft is not anything we want to think about, but it happens and we need to be informed about it.     This week’s guest is David Rubinstein and he is going to share with us his golden nuggets about identity theft.  Enjoy!   What you'll learn about in today's episode: A golden identity tip you don’t want to miss Chipped cards, are they worth the extra time in line? The little-known trick with google alerts   For the complete set of show notes for this episode go to http://www.jenhemphill.com/90   Be sure to continue to join us in more money conversations in our FREE community over here: http://www.jenhemphill.com/community     Enjoy this episode and want more?  Be sure to subscribe and leave us a review on iTunes:  https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/her-money-matters-money-talk/id1006403754    By you doing that will help us reach more women like you.  It’s easy, here is how:  http://jenhemphill.com/how-to-subscribe-and-leave-a-review-on-itunes/

Her Money Matters
HMM 90: What To Know About Identity Theft With David Rubenstein

Her Money Matters

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 22, 2017 35:16


Identity theft is not anything we want to think about, but it happens and we need to be informed about it.     This week’s guest is David Rubinstein and he is going to share with us his golden nuggets about identity theft.  Enjoy!   What you'll learn about in today's episode: A golden identity tip you don’t want to miss Chipped cards, are they worth the extra time in line? The little-known trick with google alerts   For the complete set of show notes for this episode go to http://www.jenhemphill.com/90   Be sure to continue to join us in more money conversations in our FREE community over here: http://www.jenhemphill.com/community     Enjoy this episode and want more?  Be sure to subscribe and leave us a review on iTunes:  https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/her-money-matters-money-talk/id1006403754    By you doing that will help us reach more women like you.  It’s easy, here is how:  http://jenhemphill.com/how-to-subscribe-and-leave-a-review-on-itunes/