Podcast appearances and mentions of Michael Webb

How do you navigate a career path when the future of work is uncertain? How important is mentorship versus immediate impact? Is it better to focus on your strengths or on the world's most pressing problems? Should you specialise deeply or develop a unique combination of skills?From embracing failure to finding unlikely allies, we bring you 16 diverse perspectives from past guests who've found unconventional paths to impact and helped others do the same.Links to learn more and full transcript.Chapters:Cold open (00:00:00)Luisa's intro (00:01:04)Holden Karnofsky on just kicking ass at whatever (00:02:53)Jeff Sebo on what improv comedy can teach us about doing good in the world (00:12:23)Dean Spears on being open to randomness and serendipity (00:19:26)Michael Webb on how to think about career planning given the rapid developments in AI (00:21:17)Michelle Hutchinson on finding what motivates you and reaching out to people for help (00:41:10)Benjamin Todd on figuring out if a career path is a good fit for you (00:46:03)Chris Olah on the value of unusual combinations of skills (00:50:23)Holden Karnofsky on deciding which weird ideas are worth betting on (00:58:03)Karen Levy on travelling to learn about yourself (01:03:10)Leah Garcés on finding common ground with unlikely allies (01:06:53)Spencer Greenberg on recognising toxic people who could derail your career and life (01:13:34)Holden Karnofsky on the many jobs that can help with AI (01:23:13)Danny Hernandez on using world events to trigger you to work on something else (01:30:46)Sarah Eustis-Guthrie on exploring and pivoting in careers (01:33:07)Benjamin Todd on making tough career decisions (01:38:36)Hannah Ritchie on being selective when following others' advice (01:44:22)Alex Lawsen on getting good mentorship (01:47:25)Chris Olah on cold emailing that actually works (01:54:49)Pardis Sabeti on prioritising physical health to do your best work (01:58:34)Chris Olah on developing good taste and technique as a researcher (02:04:39)Benjamin Todd on why it's so important to apply to loads of jobs (02:09:52)Varsha Venugopal on embracing uncomfortable situations and celebrating failures (02:14:25)Luisa's outro (02:17:43)Audio engineering: Ben Cordell, Milo McGuire, Simon Monsour, and Dominic ArmstrongContent editing: Katy Moore and Milo McGuireTranscriptions and web: Katy Moore

Will LLMs soon be made into autonomous agents? Will they lead to job losses? Is AI misinformation overblown? Will it prove easy or hard to create AGI? And how likely is it that it will feel like something to be a superhuman AGI?With AGI back in the headlines, we bring you 15 opinionated highlights from the show addressing those and other questions, intermixed with opinions from hosts Luisa Rodriguez and Rob Wiblin recorded back in 2023.Check out the full transcript on the 80,000 Hours website.You can decide whether the views we expressed (and those from guests) then have held up these last two busy years. You'll hear:Ajeya Cotra on overrated AGI worriesHolden Karnofsky on the dangers of aligned AI, why unaligned AI might not kill us, and the power that comes from just making models biggerIan Morris on why the future must be radically different from the presentNick Joseph on whether his companies internal safety policies are enoughRichard Ngo on what everyone gets wrong about how ML models workTom Davidson on why he believes crazy-sounding explosive growth stories… and Michael Webb on why he doesn'tCarl Shulman on why you'll prefer robot nannies over human onesZvi Mowshowitz on why he's against working at AI companies except in some safety rolesHugo Mercier on why even superhuman AGI won't be that persuasiveRob Long on the case for and against digital sentienceAnil Seth on why he thinks consciousness is probably biologicalLewis Bollard on whether AI advances will help or hurt nonhuman animalsRohin Shah on whether humanity's work ends at the point it creates AGIAnd of course, Rob and Luisa also regularly chime in on what they agree and disagree with.Chapters:Cold open (00:00:00)Rob's intro (00:00:58)Rob & Luisa: Bowerbirds compiling the AI story (00:03:28)Ajeya Cotra on the misalignment stories she doesn't buy (00:09:16)Rob & Luisa: Agentic AI and designing machine people (00:24:06)Holden Karnofsky on the dangers of even aligned AI, and how we probably won't all die from misaligned AI (00:39:20)Ian Morris on why we won't end up living like The Jetsons (00:47:03)Rob & Luisa: It's not hard for nonexperts to understand we're playing with fire here (00:52:21)Nick Joseph on whether AI companies' internal safety policies will be enough (00:55:43)Richard Ngo on the most important misconception in how ML models work (01:03:10)Rob & Luisa: Issues Rob is less worried about now (01:07:22)Tom Davidson on why he buys the explosive economic growth story, despite it sounding totally crazy (01:14:08)Michael Webb on why he's sceptical about explosive economic growth (01:20:50)Carl Shulman on why people will prefer robot nannies over humans (01:28:25)Rob & Luisa: Should we expect AI-related job loss? (01:36:19)Zvi Mowshowitz on why he thinks it's a bad idea to work on improving capabilities at cutting-edge AI companies (01:40:06)Holden Karnofsky on the power that comes from just making models bigger (01:45:21)Rob & Luisa: Are risks of AI-related misinformation overblown? (01:49:49)Hugo Mercier on how AI won't cause misinformation pandemonium (01:58:29)Rob & Luisa: How hard will it actually be to create intelligence? (02:09:08)Robert Long on whether digital sentience is possible (02:15:09)Anil Seth on why he believes in the biological basis of consciousness (02:27:21)Lewis Bollard on whether AI will be good or bad for animal welfare (02:40:52)Rob & Luisa: The most interesting new argument Rob's heard this year (02:50:37)Rohin Shah on whether AGI will be the last thing humanity ever does (02:57:35)Rob's outro (03:11:02)Audio engineering: Ben Cordell, Milo McGuire, Simon Monsour, and Dominic ArmstrongTranscriptions and additional content editing: Katy Moore

We'll talk today about Texas and California, two of our most populous states that could not be more different, with Kathryn O'Rourke and Ben Koush, authors of Home, Heat, Money, God: Texas and Modern Architecture; and Michael Webb, author of California Houses: Creativity in Context.

On Sunday during the Cape Town marathon keep an eye out for Michael Webb, better known as The Pink Fairy, this avid animal lover has been running numerous marathons for years to raise funds for the SPCA and various animal welfare initiatives, on Sunday he will be running in aid of Afripaw Animal Welfare. Michael joins us live in studio to talk about how this all started for him. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The condition of the roads around Redding is always a hot topic, so we brought in the expert to give us the latest info and some interesting facts about why things are the way they are in Redding.Today, Michael Webb, Director of Public Works, discusses the effort, strategy, and foresight toward maintaining and improving 60 square miles of roadway in Redding. This is a lot of road.  By comparison, Chico is 30 square miles but gets the same state funding for roads. This is based on the gas tax measured by population size—not the amount of roadway. Michael hopes to raise Redding's general road conditions from a Pavement Condition Index of 50 to over 80 - a goal that will take many years and more funding. For now, maintaining the pavement and condition of Redding's roads is a balancing act between fixing those in dire need and maintaining those most used by the community. Between grant funding, smart planning, and key budget decisions, he hopes to improve the state of the roads in Redding little by little. One thing is certain: the size of a city like Redding presents some big challenges. Read the transcript >>Contact the City of Redding Podcast Team Email us at podcast@cityofredding.org Connect with us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram Visit the City of Redding website Love the podcast? The best way to spread the word is to rate and review!

Series: Artificial Intelligence, Leadership and the Future of Further EducationWith:Richard Foster-Fletcher, Executive Chair, MKAI.orgKurt Hintz, Managing Director, Fortis Education ConsultingMichael Webb, Director of Technology and Analytics at JiscPaul McKean, Director of Further Education and Skills and Training at JiscEpisode 13: Navigating the New Frontiers: AI's Role in Further Education with JiscEpisode Overview:In "Navigating the New Frontiers: AI's Role in Further Education with Jisc," we venture into the transformative realm of AI in education. This episode, featuring insights from Jisc's Paul McKean and Michael Webb, delves into the delicate equilibrium between AI and human intervention, the democratisation of learning through personalised AI tools, and the challenges and opportunities presented by generative AI technologies like ChatGPT. We explore how AI is reshaping educational landscapes, enhancing communication and social skills, and redefining academic integrity. Join us for a thought-provoking discussion on AI's burgeoning impact in further education.Key Topics of Discussion:In the latest episode of "Navigating the New Frontiers: AI's Role in Further Education with Jisc," we delve into pivotal discussions surrounding AI's integration into education. Our conversation pivots around several key areas:The Balancing Act: We examine the crucial balance between AI's capabilities and the invaluable human touch in education. The dialogue opens up on the complexities surrounding formative assessments aided by AI and the ensuing debates on grade inflation, underscoring the necessity for a thoughtful approach to integrating AI in assessments.Accessibility Challenges: Addressing access disparities, the discussion highlights the importance of ensuring equitable access to AI tools, connectivity, and devices. The freemium models of generative AI tools potentially widen the digital divide, raising concerns about equal opportunities for all learners.Cognitive Offloading and Assessment Evolution: The conversation explores the shift towards cognitive offloading to AI tools like calculators and how it necessitates a re-evaluation of assessment criteria. This segment contemplates the expectation for students to delve deeper into their subjects, thanks to AI's support.Empowering Educators and Learners: Finally, we spotlight the transformative potential of AI in democratising education. With examples like the use of visual AI to enhance language skills, the episode illustrates AI's role in catalysing learning and levelling the educational playing field for all, including those with learning difficulties.The AI resources from Jisc are available here.Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-boundless-podcast--4077400/support.

Ben is joined by Thomas Laxdal and Michael Webb to discuss the 2002 movie 8 Mile. - What made Eminem so famous? - Which is your favourite rap battle? - Was Eminem an actual good actor? - What makes this movie better than the usual music biopic? - Would you watch 8 Mile as a broadway musical? - And much more

Video Version About the Podcast I have known Michael Webb for several years.  He has been a member of the Advisory Board of the Operational Excellence Society almost since its inception and led the Operational Excellence Society Chapter in Atlanta.  We start the podcast by discussing the application of operational excellence and continuous improvement principles to sales and marketing activities.  Paris made note of the challenges due to the personality-driven nature of sales and getting salespeople to document processes and how there might be a natural conflict between the human-empathetic side of sales with the data-driven needs of management. Michael explained how sales processes can be defined through engaging salespeople to determine what drives value for customers.  This allows processes to be measured and improved.  To this end, defining what is of value operationally is important and discussed how processes should focus on creating value rather than only eliminating waste. Michael highlighted how statistical analysis can be applied to sales activities like lead qualification when processes are defined properly.  This brings more science to sales.  And regarding management needs, Michael emphasized processes should serve salespeople but allow enough standardization for effective management and fostering opportunities for coaching.  Striking a balance when it comes to documentation is ideal; harvesting only the information that is of value and minimizing the narrative form of documentation (nobody reads it anyway). Towards the end of the interview, Michael overviewed his books, including Sales and Marketing the Six Sigma Way which shows how Six Sigma principles apply to sales, and Sales Process Excellence which earned a Shingo Research Award and provides a textbook on improving sales processes. And finally, no interview would be complete today without some commentary on where AI is going and its impact on sales and marketing processes and personnel.  To this end, we both believe that human interaction will remain important for establishing trust and empathy. About Michael Webb Michael Webb is an internationally known author and management consultant.  He brings data-driven management approaches to sales and marketing organizations.  Before starting his own consultancy firm, Sales Performance Consultants, Inc., he held roles in sales, sales training, and sales management for IMPAX Corporation, PCT Incorporated, Rockwell Automation, and others. When exposed to production improvement methodologies (e.g., Six Sigma, and Lean) he saw parallels to B2B sales production.  He pioneered ways of helping sales teams distinguish value from waste.  He also created ways for sales teams to develop operational definitions.  These enabled continuous improvement in sales productivity, forecast accuracy, and other metrics. His approach recognizes the critical role beliefs play in the behaviors of sales and marketing people as well as customers.  He engages front-line salespeople, managers, and executives as well as cross-functional teams. His 2006 book, “Sales and Marketing the Six Sigma Way”, earned 4.5 stars on Amazon and sold more than 21 thousand copies.  And his 2014 book, “Sales Process Excellence” earned the prestigious Shingo Research Award in 2015.  His articles range from sales quality and process to reducing waste and capitalizing on customer value where they draw on his extensive experience working with direct and channel sales and marketing teams of large and small companies. Author of:  Sales and Marketing the Six Sigma Way: In Sales and Marketing the Six Sigma Way, Michael Webb shows how to blend marketing and sales efforts with the cutting-edge methods of Six Sigma to boost their bottom lines. Sales Process Excellence, 2015 Shingo Award Winner:  In 'Sales Process Excellence', Michael Webb traces sales and marketing problems to their root causes in traditional management methods, such as pushing product, setting quotas, and trying harder while doing the same things over again. LinkedIn Profile: https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaeljwebb/ Company: Sales Performance Consultants, Inc. Title: Senior President Website: https://salesperformance.com/ Year Founded: 2002 About: Sales Performance Consultants, Inc., collaborates with B2B executives to extend operational excellence to sales and marketing.  Clients systematically increase revenue, loyalty, and margin while wasting less time and money.

Ben is joined by Mickey Khan and Michael Webb to discuss the 2020 movie The Gentlemen. - What makes a Guy Ritchie movie so unique? - Who is the most badass character? - Would this movie have a bigger impact if released a different year? - Why Guy Ritchie movies aren't my favourite. - And much more.

 In Part Two of their conversation, Paul Cardall and Peter Breinholt delve into the world of Mormon music and LDS culture. A multi-million dollar industry, Mormon music is relatively unknown. As the Church expanded its membership beyond Utah's borders, so did the audience for recording artists who are members of the LDS Church or create music with Mormon themes. Both Paul and Peter have their roots in Mormonism, which adds depth and insight to this episode, particularly for those unfamiliar with mainstream Mormonism or the LDS Church. ABOUT CO-HOST PETER BREINHOLTWebsite: https://peterbreinholt.com/Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/peter.breinholt.3Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/peterbreinholt LISTEN TO PETER'S MUSICSPOTIFY https://rb.gy/c6evxAPPLE MUSIC https://rb.gy/5s7g0 ABOUT THE HOST PAUL CARDALLOfficial Website - http://www.paulcardall.comFacebook - http://www.facebook.com/paulcardallmusicYoutube - http://www.youtube.com/cardallInstagram - http://www.instagram.com/paulcardall LISTEN TO PAUL'S MUSICAPPLE MUSIC - https://music.apple.com/us/artist/paul-cardall/4312819SPOTIFY - https://open.spotify.com/artist/7FQRbf8gbKw8KZQZAJWxH2 ABOUT THIS EPISODE:Paul and Peter Breinholt review episode one which included conversations about The Osmond Family, Michael McLean, Kenneth Cope, Julie De Azevedo, Lex De Azevedo, and others. They discuss Mormon commercials with how jingle music created various artists. Musicals were a big part of the culture. They go behind talking about how musicals were promoted over the pulpit which leaders have since promoting. They discuss the challenges artists face when the corporate church has no control over the message. When they've done events with artists it's always scripted and feels stiff and insincere.They talk about how artists have sold millions of records through the Church owned bookstore, Deseret Book. The actual website Deseret Book is a subsidiary of Deseret Book is a subsidiary. Deseret Book is a subsidiary of Deseret Management Corporation. The Deseret Management Corporation is a global operating company managing for profit entities affiliated with the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints. It was established in 1966 by Church President David O Mackay to hold already existing church assets. Subsidiaries include companies that do business in medical, dental, life, retirement and disability insurance. They have radio and TV stations and advertising agency newspaper, commercial and residential property, hospitality, properties and other divisions. The church, and this is what most people don't understand is the church is a not is not a nonprofit organization. It says the church is operated as a corporation's soul. And uses their nonprofit intellectual reserve which holds the intellectual property such as the copyrights, the trademarks and other media.

This is a selection of highlights from episode #161 of The 80,000 Hours Podcast.These aren't necessarily the most important, or even most entertaining parts of the interview — and if you enjoy this, we strongly recommend checking out the full episode:Michael Webb on whether AI will soon cause job loss, lower incomes, and higher inequality — or the oppositeAnd if you're finding these highlights episodes valuable, please let us know by emailing podcast@80000hours.org.Highlights put together by Simon Monsour and Milo McGuire

Utah musician Peter Breinholt and Paul Cardall, raised in the umbrella of Mormonism, and host Paul Cardall explore the history of commercial Mormon music, Latter-Day Saint culture and theology. LDS music is a multi-million dollar industry. ABOUT CO-HOST PETER BREINHOLTWebsite: https://peterbreinholt.com/Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/peter.breinholt.3Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/peterbreinholt LISTEN TO PETER'S MUSICSPOTIFY https://rb.gy/c6evxAPPLE MUSIC https://rb.gy/5s7g0 ABOUT THE HOST PAUL CARDALLOfficial Website - http://www.paulcardall.comFacebook - http://www.facebook.com/paulcardallmusicYoutube - http://www.youtube.com/cardallInstagram - http://www.instagram.com/paulcardall LISTEN TO PAUL'S MUSICAPPLE MUSIC - https://music.apple.com/us/artist/paul-cardall/4312819SPOTIFY - https://open.spotify.com/artist/7FQRbf8gbKw8KZQZAJWxH2  PART ONEPaul introduces Utah musician Peter Breinholt. Growing up under the umbrella of Mormonism, they discuss the differences in how they were raised. Paul comes from an orthodox home in Salt Lake City where his family was active in all the cultural and theological teachings of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints (LDS). Whereas, Peter grew up outside of Utah and didn't have an active family. He moved to Utah, started a band, and evolved into an active Latter-Day Saint.Peter explains that there are Mormons making Mormon-themed music for Mormons sold at LDS bookstores, and then there are popular bands or singers who happen to be LDS. Paul summarizes how popular LDS-themed music has become; it's a multi-million dollar industry. Peter clarifies that in Utah, where LDS headquarters are, because of the social network that the Church provides, when things catch on, it's like a wildfire. There are mega trends in Mormonism.Paul talks about pioneer immigrants who wrote hymns using the contemporary style of their time. They mention that even though there is a commercial music culture, the church itself is rather strict on what they present in worship services called Sacrament Meetings, and full-time missionaries are allowed to listen to. Electric guitars and drums aren't allowed in services. Missionaries were allowed to listen to the Tabernacle Choir and some piano music, like Paul. Today, missionaries can listen to whatever helps them feel the spirit of God, though leaders are still cautious.As the church evolved in the 80s, there was Michael McLean, a songwriter who produced a series of videos promoting church doctrine. Missionaries would take those to those who saw the ad on TV. They talk about Mormon ad campaigns in the 70s and 80s. The songs in the ads were a huge part in persuading people emotionally and had a significant influence on the direction commercial Mormon music proceeded.Peter and Paul talk about the Osmonds, the most popular LDS musicians in the 20th century. Their fifth studio album that was on the Billboard charts is called “The Plan.” Their concept album was an opportunity for The Osmonds to share Mormon theology. There have been people who have joined the church as a result of their love for Donny Osmond. They skip ahead a few decades to talk about another famous band, The Killers, whose lead singer Brandon Flowers is a devout Mormon.In the late 1970s, early 80s, Afterglow was a blockbuster duo whose songs were rich with harmonies. They were one of the first to have a record deal with the church-owned bookstore, called Deseret Book. Their music was overly religious with strict LDS themes. Deseret Book at the time had hundreds of stores along with hundreds of independent stores by people who sold LDS related products. Record labels began to pop up.Peter brings up Kenneth Cope, whose voice was featured in some of those Mormon ads. Kenneth wrote and recorded some of the most successful commercial Mormon music. All of this is happening while Amy Grant in the Christian market or Gospel Music Association was becoming successful, and her Christian-themed music crossed over into the adult contemporary top 40. Greater Than Us All was Kenneth's successful debut with His Hands and Never A Better Hero. My Servant Joseph was another hit album about with songs about LDS founder Joseph Smith. Kenneth takes his responsibilities in the church seriously and when he was called to be a Bishop, in a church with no paid ministry, we didn't hear much from Kenneth Cope until recently. He'd spent 15 years producing a new musical called "Son of Man."Along with Kenneth, Michael Webb recorded similar LDS themed songs and has since left the church. Paul says one of his favorite songs is a new Christian song by Michael Webb. Peter and Paul explore artists Julie De Azevedo, Felicia Sorensen, and other successful female artists who started to emerge in the 90s. Julie is the daughter of Lex de Azevedo, who was successful at writing LDS musicals like "Saturday's Warrior," and "My Turn on Earth." He started a record label that signed Kenneth Cope, Michael Webb, Julie, and others. Julie became a popular therapist and podcast host helping countless LDS women understand their value. They mention Hillary Weeks and move into a conversation about Jeff Simpson, a former Disney producer. Jeff was ambitious in helping take LDS music forward into a more contemporary and overall style. He had a vision to make LDS music part of the broader Christian market under the Gospel Music Association. But Jeff's label Excel was never successful because of the differences. He was successful at creating a film production and distribution entity with the breakout hit "God's Army" by Richard Dutcher. Excel would later sell to Deseret Book. He also created an award show called "The Pearls" honoring LDS music.Before talking about cellist Steven Sharp Nelson, Peter mentions Nashville Producer Jason Deere who created the Nashville Tribute Band, which was country music with LDS themes. Cellist Steven Sharp Nelson, who is now a member of YouTube sensation The Piano Guys, worked on hundreds of albums by members of the LDS faith. Peter shares how he met Steve and began using him in his band. Later, Paul used Steve to orchestrate his music with another brilliant LDS artist, Marshall McDonald. Both Marshall and Steven worked as a team to help dozens of artists. Paul invited Steve to let him produce "Sacred Cello" for Paul's label Stone Angel Music. Steve didn't believe it would be successful, but the album debuted No. 18 on the Billboard Classical Charts. Steve is an artist who shared the burden with artists that occurs in the studio and on the stage. Paul shares with Peter the countless LDS artists who created LDS-themed albums that debuted on the Billboard charts. Deseret Book began reporting sales to Soundscan."Especially For Youth" is the next topic. The weeklong camp on Brigham Young University's campus and dozen other colleges across the United States gathered LDS Youth from all over. EFY gave these LDS teenagers a 12-song compilation that featured a cassette, CD of LDS artists who wrote songs about the camp theme. Every kid received one. EFY music began in 1986 and continued until 2019 before the LDS Church changed the youth program. In the 80s not only did you have Michael McLean, Kenneth Cope, and Julie De Azevdeo, but over the decades, artists evolved out of these produced EFY albums. Why? They were approved by the church since the program was under BYU, a church-owned private university. Not everyone appreciated the songs, but the production was top quality. However, producers and artists were not given the standard music industry fees. Peter wanted to get involved and was at a point in his career where the LDS church listened to him. He recruited Jon Schmidt, Steven Sharp Nelson's partner in The Piano Guys, to produce an authentic album of songs. However, they were restricted by several policies. Peter produced one more several years ago with songwriter Russ Dixon from the Utah group Colors. Concerts were also performed, and youth looked forward to it. Overtime EFY did away with the concerts because leaders felt there was too much attention drawn to the artists. There was one theme song that was the EFY “We Are The World” that brought the popular artists who were LDS together called, “Especially For Youth.” Mormons who go to the Temple make covenants that they'll donate all their time and talents to building up the Church. As a result, artists felt an obligation to do things for free or for very little pay. They discuss firesides, which are special events inside a church building. In the beginnings, Churches wanted firesides, but overtime fewer and fewer musicians were invited to perform their music about God. Peter shares his experience being asked to perform for LDS leaders and bring his band, only they wouldn't pay for anything. Peter would have to pay his band out of his pocket.Peter and Paul share their frustration as an artist who doesn't do LDS themed music. Because he lent his voice to a few LDS themed songs, the music platform's algorithm made him an LDS artist and recommends other LDS artists instead of the Americana Folk artists. Paul also shares his frustration that new material still references artists that the metadata feels is comparable to when Paul started in 1995. Paul talks about doing an album with Steele Croswhite, who was not LDS, and slowly the culture started working with people of other Christian denominations.Paul talks about his experience speaking and performing at a Missionary Fall social attended by Apostles Russell M. Nelson and Elder David A. Bednar. A previous 70s prophecy by President Spencer Kimball invited LDS members to create the very finest artist, particularly because he believed they have all the truth. He showed the apostles the classical Billboard charts that had 5 out of 10 people who were LDS. He showed that his prophecy was being fulfilled. Afterward, Elder Bednar invited Paul to write a song with him. Paul worked with Steven Sharp Nelson and Marshall McDonald to produce Paul and David Bednar's office song "One by One." Paul would later present Elder Bednar with a plaque showing he was part of a No. 1 Billboard charting album. Paul would perform this piece with LDS tenor Nathan Pacheco. Paul discusses the positive experience of doing business with Elder Bednar and the corporate church concerning owning the master rights to their song. Paul learned that Apostles do not take a royalty. If so, it goes directly to the church missionary department.Peter talks about Trina Harmon, a Nashville songwriter who isn't LDS, has helped several Mormons evolve as writers and artists. She complimented LDS members but said she's not yet met an LDS artist who is truly aligned with the mission of the Church. The LDS Church demands a lot of service and rules, leaving artists at odds in creating music. Paul agrees and says that anyone, LDS or not, who creates music that points people to Jesus Christ is important. They briefly discuss Paul Simon who is getting older and producing an album about his relationship with God. Maturing popular artists lean into producing faith-based recordings. Artists need to speak to the struggles. Peter talks about his daughter choosing to go on a mission and his concern that it could go one or two ways. Missionaries lean in or when they return, get out of the church.Paul shares Christian artist Andrew Peterson, who like Peter Breinholt, built a community of artists within a cultural context. In Mormon culture, there's a little bit of reluctance towards charismatic musicians. When Peter was connecting with the youth in a fireside, the leader stood up to make sure the audience understood that Peter is not someone who they need to look up to, but to look up to God. Leaders tend to put down artists. A leader cornered Peter to ask him if he's a kingdom builder or a Peter builder. They discuss Mormon theology about being ordained Kings and Queens, so there's a sense of looking down on those who aren't anointed joint heirs with God. Paul shares that he needed to strip away all the idols and ideology that stood in the way of having a full relationship with Christ. Paul believes in the Four Gospels over any new revelation from those who claim to be God's prophets. The Four Gospels are 4 eye witnesses of the Resurrected Lord who disagree on the details, but they all tell the same story. He goes into talking about the Codex Vaticanus and the other codexes that were used by St. Jerome to give the world the Latin Vulgate. Paul gets into why he doesn't believe in a Church that he loves with all his heart. They talk about Joseph Smith's first vision narrative that the Church has been teaching for hundreds of years, that even LDS scholars say that narrative can't be sustained. It's simply not true. Peter says that artists deconstruct. It's why artists write songs, to say something they can't say with words. They compose how they feel.They discuss challenges in Mormon doctrine. Paul talks about one of the Christian churches he attends called Immanuel Nashville with Pastor TJ Tims. Artists analyze everything.Paul and Peter end by setting up part two. ABOUT PETER BREINHOLTPeter Breinholt is well-known performer in the Salt Lake region and became so largely through word-of-mouth. His debut record became the best-selling independently released CD ever in the state of Utah, and was described a decade after it's release as "an underground classic" by Salt Lake Magazine. Peter has performed for countless sold out crowds in every major concert hall in the state, including Kingsbury Hall, Tuacahn and Sundance. Utah Governor Gary Herbert recently honored Peter with the Governor's Mansion Award for Achievement in the Performing Arts for his influence as a songwriter and performing artist.

"Do you remember seeing these photographs of generally women sitting in front of these huge panels and connecting calls, plugging different calls between different numbers? The automated version of that was invented in 1892. However, the number of human manual operators peaked in 1920 -- 30 years after this. At which point, AT&T is the monopoly provider of this, and they are the largest single employer in America, 30 years after they've invented the complete automation of this thing that they're employing people to do. And the last person who is a manual switcher does not lose their job, as it were: that job doesn't stop existing until I think like 1980.So it takes 90 years from the invention of full automation to the full adoption of it in a single company that's a monopoly provider. It can do what it wants, basically. And so the question perhaps you might have is why?" — Michael WebbIn today's episode, host Luisa Rodriguez interviews economist Michael Webb of DeepMind, the British Government, and Stanford about how AI progress is going to affect people's jobs and the labour market.Links to learn more, summary and full transcript.They cover:The jobs most and least exposed to AIWhether we'll we see mass unemployment in the short term How long it took other technologies like electricity and computers to have economy-wide effectsWhether AI will increase or decrease inequalityWhether AI will lead to explosive economic growthWhat we can we learn from history, and reasons to think this time is differentCareer advice for a world of LLMsWhy Michael is starting a new org to relieve talent bottlenecks through accelerated learning, and how you can get involvedMichael's take as a musician on AI-generated musicAnd plenty moreIf you'd like to work with Michael on his new org to radically accelerate how quickly people acquire expertise in critical cause areas, he's now hiring! Check out Quantum Leap's website.Get this episode by subscribing to our podcast on the world's most pressing problems and how to solve them: type ‘80,000 Hours' into your podcasting app. Or read the transcript.Producer and editor: Keiran HarrisAudio Engineering Lead: Ben CordellTechnical editing: Milo McGuire and Dominic ArmstrongAdditional content editing: Katy Moore and Luisa RodriguezTranscriptions: Katy Moore

Interview with Michael Webb, author of the novel FORTRESS OF THE LOST AMULET.Michael was interviewed on the podcast before, click here to listen to his earlier interview.You can support the podcast today by buying me a coffee, or you can subscribe to the podcast via Apple iTunes for ad-free episodes.Support this podcast at — https://redcircle.com/reading-and-writing-podcast/donationsAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Listen in to Dr. Michael Webb, tell us how and why he became an EMT, even before he went to dental school.  Now, a pediatric dentist, anesthesiologist and academic, Mike share's his life as an EMT and describes the wonderful opportunities therein. He also shares who being an EMT is exceptionally helpful in his academic world.  Tune in to be inspired. Bio: Dr. Michael Webb grew up in the Chicago area and attended DePaul University before obtaining his DDS from Northwestern University. He then completed a certificate in pediatric dentistry at Children's Hospital of Pittsburgh and a certificate in dental anesthesiology at the University of Pittsburgh School of Dental Medicine. In addition to his clinical training Dr. Webb has a certificate in Health Care Administration, a Master's in Education with a concentration in Adult Learning and recently competed a Graduate Certificate in Health Professions Education at East Carolina University. He previously taught at Baylor College of Dentistry where he was the Graduate Program Director and the Chief of Dental Services at Children's Medical Center of Dallas. He then was the Graduate Program Director in Pediatric Dentistry at Virginia Commonwealth University before opening a private practice that focused on office sedation and general anesthesia. Dr. Webb returned to academics in 2014 to become the Director of the Pediatric Dentistry Residency Program at the East Carolina University School of Dental Medicine. Dr. Webb was named Chair, Department of Pediatric Dentistry and Orthodontics and Dentofacial Orthopedics at ECU in January 2018. In July 2022, Dr. Webb was named the inaugural Jasper L. Lewis, Jr. Distinguished Scholar in Pediatric Dentistry at the ECU School of Dental Medicine. Dr. Webb is currently an advanced life support emergency medical technician/attendant in charge with Forest View Volunteer Rescue/Chesterfield Fire and EMS which is part of an urban 911 EMS system. He holds EMT certifications in Virginia and North Carolina and has served as a field training officer for both patient care and emergency driving.

On today's TASA midwinter edition, host Rick Fernandez is joined by Dr. Michael Webb, Chief Academic Officer of Tomball ISD, to talk about all things literacy and innovation in education. Dr. Webb also touches on special education, getting out of your comfort zone, and shifting mindsets about CTE. You won't want to miss this informative episode of The Path Forward!Timestamps & Show Notes (Video):(00:00 - 00:59) Introduction(01:00 - 02:40) Chief Academic Officer(02:41 - 04:12) Guiding Literacy(04:13 - 05:55) Leadership Question(05:56 - 07:11) Getting Out of Your Comfort Zone(07:12 - 11:44) Shifting Mindsets about CTE(11:45 - 14:08) Highlights for Tomball ISD(14:09 - 18:04) Incorporating Basketball Into Education(18:05 - 18:29) Outro

Michael Webb joins Plutopians to discuss meditative inquiry, meditation practices and intelligence, experts, and much more. Michael Webb: It almost seems like an oxymoron, doesn’t it? To speak of thinking…

May 1, 2023 – On today's episode of Lifetime Planning, we have a special guest, Michael Webb from Business Transition Advisors, who sheds light on the fascinating world of ESOPs or Employee Stock Ownership Plans. Michael shares his insights...

The Talk of Fame Podcast got to Michael Webb! Michael is a Magician and was part of Austrialia got talent 2022. In this episode, He discusses what his best magic trick is, how he came up with the name "Magic Mike", how he felt when making a judge cry during Australia Got Talent, and much more. FOLLOW ME: INSTAGRAM: Officialkyliemontigney Talkoffamepod Twitter: Kyliemontigney4 ABOUT ME: Hi, I am Kylie! I love sports, spending time with my family, traveling, and meeting people that inspire me. I love listening to other people's stories and sharing their journeys. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/kylie-montigney/support

Michael Webb is unlike any magician you've seen in person or virtually on zoom. As a full-time magician with 15 years experience, Sydney magician Magic Mike is a fun, easy going and approachable magician who caught my attention after I watched his inspirational mental health message on Australia's Got Talent in 2022 that brought me to tears.I loved talking to Mike about his mental health journey; from feeling alone in his struggle with depression to a coworker signing him up to see a doctor to spreading his message of hope and healing to audiences around the world. He shares how he got into magic and got his first job, what Mike loves about the personalized aspect of doing magic, and how his ability to make people smile and laugh helps him heal as well. I ask him if anyone can do magic, and get Mike's advice for anyone struggling with their mental health. Plus, Mike showcases his skills with me virtually over the screen in this interview, and it's pretty amazing, so if you can, make sure to watch this one on YouTube!Resources:• Website: michaelwebbmagic.com.au• Instagram: @magicmike_notastripper• YouTube: Magic Mike on Australia's Got Talent• Read: The Big Silence: A Daughter's Memoir of Mental Illness and Healing • Follow Karena Dawn on Instagram: @karenadawn• Follow The Big Silence on Instagram: @The.Big.Silence• Subscribe: The Big Silence YouTube Channel• Therapy For All: Resources for those in needDonate to The Big Silence thebigsilence.com/donate to be a part of the movement to break the silence and make noise with us!“The Big Silence” theme song written and performed by James Nicholas Kinney.Executive Handyman, Bobby Goldstein.The Big Silence is produced by Crate Media.

My guest this episode is Michael Webb, who writes YA Fantasy books, but attracts readers of all ages. Michael has a great deal of advice for other authors on how to successfully write, launch, and market a debut novel and keep the momentum going for subsequent books. ALLi's Inspirational Indie Author Podcast stream is sponsored by Kobo Writing Life, a global, independent ebook and audiobook publishing platform that empowers authors with a quick and easy publishing process and unique promotional opportunities. To reach a wide readership, create your account today! Thank you, Kobo, for your support of this podcast. Find more author advice, tips, and tools at our Self-publishing Author Advice Center, with a huge archive of 2,000+ blog posts, and a handy search box to find key info on the topic you need. We invite you to join our organization and become a self-publishing ally, if you haven't already. You can do that at allianceindependentauthors.org. About the Host Howard Lovy has been a journalist for more than 35 years, and now amplifies the voices of independent author-publishers and works with authors as a developmental editor. Find Howard at howardlovy.com, LinkedIn and Twitter.  

Michael Webb describes how a brutal editing experience taught him to write better stories.

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Growth Theory Reading List, published by LuisMota on October 12, 2022 on The Effective Altruism Forum. The reading list below is based on a reading list originally used for an internal GPI reading group in spring 2021, organized by Phil Trammell and Leopold Aschenbrenner, and on the ETGP 2022 syllabus, also organized by Phil. I also added a few resources I deemed relevant on some of the topics below, but the credit for almost all of these resources goes to Phil and Leopold. My suggested usage for this reading list is in conjunction with, and as a complement to, the slides for the first week of ETGP 2022 (available here), as the course was specifically designed to teach economic theory in a global prioritization context. As such, the structure of the reading list matches that of the course. Disclaimer: The views presented in the readings suggested below do not necessarily represent views held by the reading group organizers, me, GPI, or any other GPI staff member. Motivation There are two main reasons why growth theory is particularly relevant for EAs. First, growth models allow for a lot of flexibility regarding which factors are included in the model, and which timescale one uses to evaluate the effects of changes in these factors. These characteristics make growth models useful even if one is ultimately only interested in factors other than economic growth, like AI or climate change. Second, economic growth plays a central role in the contemporary world, in a way that understanding its dynamics is likely key for global prioritization. 1. Introduction and basic models Jones, Charles I., and Dietrich Vollrath. 2013. Introduction to Economic Growth. Chapter 2, up to section 2.1.4 Trammell, Philip. 2020. “Economic Growth under Transformative AI.” Section 2 2. Accumulation-based models and growth versus level effects Jones, Charles I., and Dietrich Vollrath. 2013. Introduction to Economic Growth. Chapter 9 Piketty, Thomas. 2014. Capital in the Twenty-First Century. Section “Too Much Capital Kills the Return on Capital” up to and including “Capital-Labor Substitution in the Twenty-First Century: An Elasticity Greater Than One” Jones, Charles I. 2003. “Growth, Capital Shares, and a New Perspective on Production Functions.” 3. Scale effects in researcher-based models Jones, Charles I. 2005. “Growth and Ideas.” Section 1 Section 3 Section 5 (skip 5.4) Sections 6.1 and 6.2 Bloom, Nicholas, Charles I. Jones, John Van Reenen, and Michael Webb. 2020. “Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?” Introduction See figures in the slides Bond-Smith, Steven. 2019. “The Decades-Long Dispute Over Scale Effects in the Theory of Economic Growth.” 4. Existential risk and growth Aschenbrenner, Leopold. 2020. “Existential Risk and Growth.” Trammell, Philip. 2021. “Existential Risk and Exogenous Growth.” Hilton, Benjamin. 2021. “Existential Risk Mitigation as a Public Good.” Hilary Greaves's lecture on longtermism and economic growth 5. Long-run historical growth Kremer, Michael. 1993. “Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million B.C. to 1990.” Jones, Charles I. “Economic Growth over the Very Long Run.” Roodman, David. 2021. “On the Probability Distribution of Long-Term Changes in the Growth Rate of the Global Economy: An Outside View.” 6. The mechanics of the industrial revolution “phase change” Galor, Oded, and David N. Weil. 2000. “Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond.” Crafts, Nicholas. 2011. “Explaining the First Industrial Revolution: Two Views.” 7. AI and growth Trammell, Philip. 2020. “Economic Growth under Transformative AI.” Section 1 Sections 3.1-3.3 Section 4.1-4.2 Section 5.2 Section 6 Section 7 Aghion, Philippe, Benjamin F Jones, and Charles I Jones. 2019. “Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth.” GovAI P...

Welcome Michael Webb to The TufFish Show, a place to help writers and aspiring authors get out of their own way to leave a legacy by telling the stories they want to share through writing their own books and confidently sharing them with others. The writing process can be tough and the business side can feel scary, but TufFish makes both feel smoother and achievable. Visit https://www.jennifermilius.com/tuffish to learn more. If you're wondering how to effectively organize your fantasy world so that there's consistency in a trilogy or how to position your book effectively, then let this conversation with Michael Webb be a resource. Michael started his writing journey with a chapter that he wanted to try for himself, which lead to a trilogy and over 40,000 copies sold. He shared so many valuable nuggets that can reach not only into fantasy but other genres too. Michael Webb is a young-adult fantasy author who lives in Dallas, GA in the United States. He only recently took up writing and fell in love with it. The Shadow Knights Trilogy is his debut series, and it has already sold over 40,000 copies. He's looking forward to writing more soon. Visit - www.michaelwebbnovels.com Book purchase link - The Shadow Knights Trilogy

Episode 12 of the Hunting Game PodcastThe guys are back behind the mic and this week, Michael Webb tells us all about hunting squirrels. As a veteran small game hunter that specializes in hunting with his dog, we get to hear a special side of the story from a traditional style of hunting. Tons of good information and great stories! Don't miss it, this one is packed full of solid info from start to finish!Support the show

A chat with Michael

A basket of indicators all seem to document a similar trend. Even as the number of scientists and publications rises substantially, we do not appear to be seeing a concomitant rise in new discoveries that supplant older ones. Science is getting harder.This podcast is an audio read through of the (initial draft of the) post Science is getting harder, published on New Things Under the Sun.Articles mentioned:Bloom, Nicholas, Charles I. Jones, John Van Reenen, and Michael Webb. 2020. Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find? American Economics Review 110(4): 1104-1144. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20180338Wang, Dashun and Albert-László Barabási. 2021. The Science of Science. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108610834Li, Jichao, Yian Yin, Santo Fortunato, and Dashun Wang. 2019. A dataset of publication records for Nobel Laureates. Scientific Data 6: 33. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-019-0033-6Collison, Patrick and Michael Nielsen. 2018. Science is Getting Less Bang for Its Buck. The Atlantic. Chu, Johan S.G. and James A. Evans. 2021. Slowed canonical progress in large fields of science. PNAS 118(41): e2021636118. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2021636118Milojević, Staša. 2015. Quantifying the cognitive extent of science. Journal of Informetrics 9(4): 962-973. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joi.2015.10.005Carayol, Nicolas, Agenor Lahatte, and Oscar Llopis. 2019. The Right Job and the Job Right: Novelty, Impact and Journal Stratification in Science. SSRN working paper. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3347326Larivière, Vincent, Éric Archambault, & Yves Gingras. 2007. Long-term patterns in the aging of the scientific literature, 1900–2004. Proceedings of ISSI 2007, ed. Daniel Torres-Salinas and Henk F. Moed. https://www.issi-society.org/publications/issi-conference-proceedings/proceedings-of-issi-2007/Cui, Haochuan, Lingfei Wu, and James A. Evans. 2022. Aging scientists and slowed advance. arXiv 2202.04044. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2202.04044Marx, Matt, and Aaron Fuegi. Reliance on Science: Worldwide Front-Page Patent Citations to Scientific Articles. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3331686

Philosopher Charles Herrman interviews Michael Webb, an advocate for the practice of meditative inquiry. They discuss interviewing and questioning, stillness, truth, centering, and much more. Michael Webb: Truth isn’t necessarily…

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This week David and Marina are joined by Scott Mitchell, Founder and Chief Executive Officer of Scott Mitchell Studio, to discuss his designs, his early interests in architecture, his office, influential people in his life, the power of thoughtful architecture, and much more. Enjoy! Scott Mitchell is the Founder and Chief Executive Officer of Scott Mitchell Studio. Over more than 20 years he has developed an extensive design portfolio across the U.S. and internationally. Scott is renowned for his warm approach to connecting the built and natural environment and his humanistic approach to architecture. His nomadic upbringing took him from Jordan to Japan to the American Southwest—where he bore early witness to the stone ruins of Petra and Wadi Rum, the Shinto houses of Okinawa and the Sonoran Desert. Scott's design philosophy is influenced equally by his early encounters with antiquity, as by his relationships with modernist architects Richard Meier and Charles Gwathmey, and by the work of Louis I. Kahn and Rudolph M. Schindler.    Scott received a Bachelor of Environmental Design from Texas A&M University before moving to New York to work at Stephen Miller Siegel & Associates and then to Bridgehampton to work with Preston T. Phillips, a former protégé of architect Paul Rudolph. He was offered an internship in Norman Foster's London office and then moved back to the U.S. to pursue graduate studies at the Southern California Institute of Architecture (SCI-Arc), before establishing Scott Mitchell Studio in 1999. Scott is author of the monograph Scott Mitchell Houses (Rizzoli), which includes eight of the studio's pivotal projects and includes contributions by Paul Goldberger, Calvin Klein and Michael Webb. This episode is supported by Brizo • Monograph • Miele • Graphisoft SUBSCRIBE  • Apple Podcasts  • YouTube  • Spotify CONNECT  • Website: www.secondstudiopod.com • Instagram • Facebook • Twitter  • Call or text questions to 213-222-6950 SUPPORT Leave a review :) EPISODE CATEGORIES  •  Interviews: Interviews with industry leaders.  •  Design Companion: Informative talks for clients.   •  After Hours (AH): Casual conversations about everyday life.  •  Design Reviews: Reviews of creative projects and buildings.  •  Fellow Designer: Tips for designers.

One of the most influential economics of innovation papers from the last decade is “Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find” by Bloom, Jones, Van Reenen, and Webb, ultimately published in 2020 but in earlier draft circulation for years. While the paper is ostensibly concerned with testing a prediction of some economic growth models, it's broader fame is attributable to it's documentation of a striking fact: across varied domains, the R&D efforts necessary to eke out technological improvement keep getting higher. Let's take a look at their evidence, as well as some complementary evidence from other papers.This podcast is a read through of the (initial version of the) article Innovation (mostly) gets harder, published on New Things Under the Sun.Articles mentioned:Bloom, Nicholas, Charles I. Jones, John Van Reenen, and Michael Webb. 2020. Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find? American Economics Review 110(4): 1104-1144. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20180338Besiroglu, Tamay. 2020. Are models getting harder to find? Masters Thesis, University of Cambridge. https://www.tamaybesiroglu.com/projectsBoeing, Philipp, and Paul Hünermund. 2020. A global decline in research productivity? Evidence from China and Germany. Economics Letters 197: 109646. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109646Miyagawa, Tsutomu and Ishikawa Takayuki. 2019. On the Decline of R&D Efficiency. Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry discussion paper 19052. https://ideas.repec.org/p/eti/dpaper/19052.html

Joe and Ron discuss cybersecurity in K-12 schools, the increase in ransomware attacks on K-12 schools across the country, simple tips to make you and your school more secure from cybercrime, and some cybersecurity myths with Kathi Kersznowski, Jaime Donally, & Michael Webb from Identity Automation. SHOW NOTES: https://wke.lt/w/s/vC5Jx5 --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/teacher-nerdz/message Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/teacher-nerdz/support

Here is our first interview with Young Adult Fantasy author Michael Webb. Michael just released Rise of the Shadow Book 2 of the Shadow Knights Trilogy. Here we discuss the differences in writing different drafts for each book in a trilogy, new release advertising and schedules, and how to find your audience. Don't forget to check out Michael's socials and author profile:https://www.amazon.com/Michael-Webb/e/B091CYX2MD/ref=dp_byline_cont_pop_book_1https://www.amazon.com/Last-Shadow-Knight-Knights-Trilogy/dp/1737578808/ref=pd_lpo_1?pd_rd_i=1737578808&psc=1https://www.amazon.com/Rise-Shadow-Michael-Webb/dp/1737578816www.michaelwebbnovels.comInstagram - @michaelwebbnovelsFacebook - @michaelwebbnovels

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: My current framework for thinking about AGI timelines, published by Alex Zhu on the AI Alignment Forum. At the beginning of 2017, someone I deeply trusted said they thought AGI would come in 10 years, with 50% probability. I didn't take their opinion at face value, especially since so many experts seemed confident that AGI was decades away. But the possibility of imminent apocalypse seemed plausible enough and important enough that I decided to prioritize investigating AGI timelines over trying to strike gold. I left the VC-backed startup I'd cofounded, and went around talking to every smart and sensible person I could find who seemed to have opinions about when humanity would develop AGI. My biggest takeaways after 3 years might be disappointing -- I don't think the considerations currently available to us point to any decisive conclusion one way or another, and I don't think anybody really knows when AGI is coming. At the very least, the fields of knowledge that I think bear on AGI forecasting (including deep learning, predictive coding, and comparative neuroanatomy) are disparate, and I don't know of any careful and measured thinkers with all the relevant expertise. That being said, I did manage to identify a handful of background variables that consistently play significant roles in informing people's intuitive estimates of when we'll get to AGI. In other words, people would often tell me that their estimates of AGI timelines would significantly change if their views on one of these background variables changed. I've put together a framework for understanding AGI timelines based on these background variables. Among all the frameworks for AGI timelines I've encountered, it's the framework that most comprehensively enumerates crucial considerations for AGI timelines, and it's the framework that best explains how smart and sensible people might arrive at vastly different views on AGI timelines. Over the course of the next few weeks, I'll publish a series of posts about these background variables and some considerations that shed light on what their values are. I'll conclude by describing my framework for how they come together to explain various overall viewpoints on AGI timelines, depending on different prior assumptions on the values of these variables. By trade, I'm a math competition junkie, an entrepreneur, and a hippie. I am not an expert on any of the topics I'll be writing about -- my analyses will not be comprehensive, and they might contain mistakes. I'm sharing them with you anyway in the hopes that you might contribute your own expertise, correct for my epistemic shortcomings, and perhaps find them interesting. I'd like to thank Paul Christiano, Jessica Taylor, Carl Shulman, Anna Salamon, Katja Grace, Tegan McCaslin, Eric Drexler, Vlad Firiou, Janos Kramar, Victoria Krakovna, Jan Leike, Richard Ngo, Rohin Shah, Jacob Steinhardt, David Dalrymple, Catherine Olsson, Jelena Luketina, Alex Ray, Jack Gallagher, Ben Hoffman, Tsvi BT, Sam Eisenstat, Matthew Graves, Ryan Carey, Gary Basin, Eliana Lorch, Anand Srinivasan, Michael Webb, Ashwin Sah, Yi Sun, Mark Sellke, Alex Gunning, Paul Kreiner, David Girardo, Danit Gal, Oliver Habryka, Sarah Constantin, Alex Flint, Stag Lynn, Andis Draguns, Tristan Hume, Holden Lee, David Dohan, and Daniel Kang for enlightening conversations about AGI timelines, and I'd like to apologize to anyone whose name I ought to have included, but forgot to include. Table of contents As I post over the coming weeks, I'll update this table of contents with links to the posts, and I might update some of the titles and descriptions. How special are human brains among animal brains? Humans can perform intellectual feats that appear qualitatively different from those of other animals, but are our brains really doing anything so different? How u...

“It's easy to let pressing matters get in the forefront without sort of thinking, ‘Hey is this something that's being put on me by something else, or is this really something that I want to do?' And you have to sometimes be selfish about saying, ‘Look, this is important to me and I'm going to do this.' You know, ‘I'm going to do it right now.'” -Neurosurgeon Dr. Michael Webb In today's episode, Jill talks with Neurosurgeon and father, Dr. Michael Webb. Dr. Webb is a proud father and in this conversation we find out how he balances his life to make time for medicine and family. We hear how, since residency, he has had a regular schedule of coming home from work and spending time with his son, which he continues to do to this day. He talks about looking forward and realizing that things that might not mean that much today may have a big impact over the course of five to ten years. Tune in to hear a loving father tell about how he manages work/life balance.  Dr. Webb went to medical school at Loyola University Chicago. He completed his residency in neurosurgery at University of Virginia and his fellowship in spine surgery at Barrow Neurological Institute. You can find him currently at NeuroTexas. Our New DocWorking THRIVE Membership is coming in July!! You'll get ongoing Small Group Coaching with our Experienced Team, Ongoing Coaching Support in a Private Community that Fosters Peer Support and Mentorship, and superb virtual courses to include ‘STAT: Quick Wins to Get Your Life Back' with Gabriella Dennery MD and Master Certified Coach Jill Farmer, and ‘A New Era of Leadership,' with Lisa Kuzman, and so much more!    Join our community by clicking here.   At DocWorking, our specialty is Coaching Physicians. We bring an exceptional experienced team to Coach Physicians to achieve the best in life and medicine.    Doctors devote their lives to caring for others. But does that mean they must sacrifice their own health and wellbeing? Absolutely not!   At DocWorking, we have developed a unique way to embrace it all.   The caring for others that you do so selflessly AND the caring for YOURSELF AND YOUR FAMILY that you crave in order to bring it all into the perfect balance specific to YOU.   What if we told you that you CAN have it all? The career you dreamed of when you decided to become a doctor AND the life outside of medicine that you desire?   DocWorking empowers physicians to get back on the path to achieving their dreams.   At DocWorking, we understand the tug between life and medicine–a desire to make an impact through your specialized skills but a longing for more time to prioritize your own dreams and ambitions.   We understand because we are a team of physicians and experienced coaches who have been successfully coaching physicians for more than 10 years.   Professional coaching is transformational. Elite athletes, award-winning actors and top-performing executives all know this, which is why they embrace coaching to achieve such extraordinary success. Leading corporations also know this, which is why they encourage executive coaching. Smart leaders leverage the power of coaching to achieve outcomes that are meaningful, measurable, and attainable.    Our Coaches Will Show You How!   It's Time to Prioritize the Health and Wellness of Physicians! DocWorking is here for you!!   To learn more about DocWorking, visit us here!  Are you a physician who would like to tell your story? Please email Amanda, our producer, at Amanda@docworking.com to be considered.   And if you like our podcast and would like to subscribe and leave us a 5 star review, we would be extremely grateful!   We're everywhere you like to get your podcasts! Apple iTunes, Spotify, iHeart Radio, Google, Pandora, PlayerFM, ListenNotes, Amazon, YouTube, Podbean   Some links in our blogs and show notes are affiliate links, and purchases made via those links may result in small payments to DW. These help toward our production costs. Thank you for supporting DocWorking: The Whole Physician Podcast!   Occasionally, we discuss financial and legal topics. We are not financial or legal professionals. Please consult a licensed professional for financial or legal advice regarding your specific situation.   Podcast produced by: Amanda Taran

The 431st episode of the Reading & Writing podcast features an interview with Michael Webb, author of the novel THE LAST SHADOW KNIGHT. Support this podcast at — https://redcircle.com/reading-and-writing-podcast/donationsAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Infernal Gates -- Book 1 Ethan Freeman, ex-Special Forces Ranger, is the sole survivor of a fiery commercial airline crash that killed his entire family. The FBI thinks he’s a mass murderer. Sam Weaver, the NTSB Chief Investigator and ex-military pilot, senses Ethan is innocent. Neither Ethan nor Sam realize an ancient evil, imprisoned since the time of the Pharaohs, has been released by a shadowy group of powerful men and women, direct descendants of ancient Sumerian gods. The demon intends to free The Destroyer and his horde of Fallen Angels from The Abyss and unleash a reign of terror and annihilation Time is running out for humanity as Ethan and Sam are drawn into a conspiracy millennia in the making. The Devil's Cauldron -- Book 2 A mysterious 10,000-year-old structure buried deep under the ice in the coldest place on Earth. A secret research facility using advanced technology developed by Nazi scientists. Cryptic messages sent to the FBI by a Mischlinge, one of Hitler’s Jewish Nazi’s, warning the world the Anunnaki, the Nephilim, are about to return. A dire warning, Beware the Devil’s Cauldron, catapults Ethan Freeman into another life-threatening journey as he faces even more powerful enemies. A Portal has been opened to a parallel universe. But the scientists intending to use it to achieve god-like powers have no idea the evil they’ve unleashed. Ethan must stop Project Nimrod or  humanity will suffer at the hands of unimaginable evil as an ancient conspiracy unfolds. Join me as I chat with Michael Webb about his series on Wednesday on March 24th at 7 pm Eastern. You can call in at 646-668-8485 and press 1 to be live on air. Download Stitcher on your mobile device. Follow us on Apple Podcast. Add PJC Media to Spotify and iHeartradio. Or, click on the link here: http://tobtr.com/11916523.    

The movie Platoon has one of the best cinematic scenes of all time. Playing out to the haunting tunes of Adagio for Strings. While being extracted by a helicopter, the platoon members see one of their own has been left behind. He has been betrayed, wounded by his own, and is being pursued by the enemy. Some watch helplessly as he's killed, falling to the ground, riddled by bullets. The camera cuts to him, his arms lifted into the air as he falls to his knees. Almost as if in his last moments, he's still pleading for rescue before he falls down dead. As I think about today's show, I can't help but make this point: spiritual warfare is real. Who can remember that song that says, "We are soldiers. In the army. We have to fight, although we have to die. We have to hold up the blood-stained banner. We have to hold it up until we die." The battle for our souls has been going on for millennia. Believers past and present have all been a part of it. We are attacked from all sides, knocked down, and even brought down. Sometimes the weapons are blatantly obvious. Other times, they are subtle. The war rages on. Have we forgotten that? The Enemy hasn't forgotten, but perhaps I did. Perhaps you did. Today's show is a rousing call for remembering that the war rages on. How can we stop ourselves from being distracted from this truth? What do we do when we are in the Enemy's sights, his weapon aimed at us? What if we've sat on the sidelines, letting others take our place? Join me as I chat with my returning guest and co-host Michael Webb about spiritual warfare on Saturday, February 6th at 2 pm Eastern time. You can call in at 646-668-8485 and press 1 to be live on air. Download Stitcher on your mobile device. Follow us on Apple Podcast. Add PJC Media to Spotify and iHeartradio. Or, click on the link here: http://tobtr.com/s/11892329.

Caleb Watney is the director of innovation policy at the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI) and he joins Macro Musings to talk about his recent piece, *Cracks in the Great Stagnation* and the reasons why we should all be techno-optimists. Specifically, David and Caleb discuss greater skilled immigration, further government R&D spending, innovative energy solutions, and more as ways to help repair an economy plagued by secular stagnation.   Transcript for the episode can be found here: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/macro-musings   Caleb’s Twitter: @calebwatney Caleb’s PPI profile: https://www.progressivepolicy.org/people/caleb-watney/   Related Links:   *Cracks in the Great Stagnation* Caleb Watney https://www.agglomerations.tech/cracks-in-the-great-stagnation/   *The Egghead Gap* by Caleb Watney https://www.thenewatlantis.com/publications/the-egghead-gap   *Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?* by Nicholas Bloom, Charles Jones, John Van Reenen, and Michael Webb https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20180338   *Is the Rate of Scientific Progress Slowing Down?* by Tyler Cowen and Ben Southwood https://docs.google.com/document/d/1cEBsj18Y4NnVx5Qdu43cKEHMaVBODTTyfHBa8GIRSec/edit   *The Productivity J-Curve: How Intangibles Complement General Purpose Technologies* by Erik Brynjolfsson, Daniel Rock, and Chad Syverson https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w25148/w25148.pdf   David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Sam Hammond is the director of poverty and welfare policy at the Niskanen Center and Brink Lindsey is vice president and director of the Open Society Project at the Niskanen Center. Both are returning guests to the podcast, and they join David again on Macro Musings to talk about their new pro-growth report titled, *Faster Growth, Fairer Growth: Policies for a High Road, High Performance Economy.* Specifically, they detail a number of different policies the US government could adopt to achieve faster and fairer economic growth, including social insurance modernization, child allowances, and more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/macro-musings   Sam’s Twitter: @hamandcheese Sam’s Niskanen profile: https://www.niskanencenter.org/author/samuel-hammond/   Brink’s Twitter: @lindsey_brink Brink’s Niskanen profile: https://www.niskanencenter.org/author/brink-lindsey/   Related Links:   *Faster Growth, Fairer Growth: Policies for a High Road, High Performance Economy* by Brink Lindsey and Sam Hammond https://www.niskanencenter.org/faster-growth-fairer-growth-policies-for-a-high-road-high-performance-economy/   *Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?* by Nicholas Bloom, Charles Jones, John Van Reenen, and Michael Webb https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/IdeaPF.pdf   *How Asia Works* by Joe Studwell https://groveatlantic.com/book/how-asia-works/   David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David’s blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/

Join Co-host Emme Lentino as she interviews MELODY GUY right here in our Heart of Indie studio! MELODY GUY is a uniquely gifted songwriter and performer, Melody Guy continues to reach fans and inspire them to follow her through a life’s journey of love, loss and independent triumph of the spirit. Artists of varying genres have recorded her songs from Sherrie Austin to Jesse James. Melody currently tours the country as a troubadour, visiting fans and weaving tales that resonate with music lovers across a wide range of styles. Her live performances with her band have garnered even more attention, sharing the stage with Keith Urban, The Avett Brothers, Leon Russell and Tanya Tucker, where Melody earned a standing ovation at the famed Ryman Auditorium. After achieving success with her last release “Diamond On The Street,” Melody has now completed the long awaited “Dry The Rivers” album, Produced by famed musician and producer Michael Webb and recorded in Nashville, TN. The “Dry The Rivers” Tour currently takes Melody from Tennessee to Portland, OR with stops throughout the Southwest and California.

Kate Justice is assigned to find a serial killer with supernatural abilities. The FBI’s youngest, most brilliant Profiler fears she’s in over her head as stunning revelations about her mysterious ancestry surface. Evil forces are arrayed against her, threatening her and those she cares about most. The killer is elusive, cunning, and seemingly invincible. Hunter becomes prey as the Ghost in the Darkness killer plays a vicious cat and mouse game, drawing Kate into a deadly confrontation. Mounting evidence indicates the killer may be something other than human. Kate races against time to discover who or what is behind the gruesome murders and prevent another brutal killing. Uncovering the truth will challenge her beliefs about the world around her and her understanding of what is real, what is myth, and what is something in between. Will she learn the incredible secret of her unique heritage in time to save her life and the lives of the innocent, fulfilling her destiny? Join us for the conversation as I chat with Michael Webb about his new release on Tuesday, October 27th at 7 pm Eastern time. You can call in at 646-668-8485 and press 1 to be live on air. Download Stitcher on your mobile device. Follow us on iTunes and iHeartreadio. Add PJC Media to your Spotify library, or click on the link here: http://tobtr.com/11817491.

One day late but who cares. We are back with predictions about rankings come playoff time, as well as looking back at some questionable trades while I take a poorly timed bathroom break, followed up with a poorly timed beverage refill. We have hit the halfway point of the season and things are starting to shift into their final slots, but you never know what could happen. --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/the-garbage-time-show/message

Feel GOOD and GET Tough Podcast Episode 11: Relationships - We talk about how different personality types and traits and how it can sometimes be difficult to get along with other people. You can develop and cultivate relationships once you hone into your true power. 50 Secrets of Blissful Relationships by Michael Webb https://648075n215mk1wcxffma413n7h.hop.clickbank.net/?tid=FGANDGT The Color Code by Taylor Hartman https://www.colorcode.com/choose_personality_test/ The 5 Love Languages by Dr. Gary Chapman https://www.5lovelanguages.com/quizzes/ Start your own podcast on Anchor. https://anchor.fm/feelgoodandgettough Join us on Facebook https://www.facebook.com/feelgoodandgettough For questions or comments; feelgoodandgettough@gmail.com Visit us on our website. https://feelgoodandgettough.com/ --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/feelgoodandgettough/support

Nicholas Bloom is a professor of economics at Stanford University and a leading scholar on management, productivity, innovation and economic uncertainty. Nick is a previous guest of Macro Musings and returns to share his thoughts on COVID-19 and what it means for the US economy, both in the short-run and in the long-run. David and Nick also discuss the impact of the virus on the future of urban living, on the economics profession as a whole, and who will bear the biggest brunt of these impacts.   Transcript for the episode can be found here: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/macro-musings   Nick’s NBER archive: https://www.nber.org/people/nick_bloom Nick’s Stanford profile: https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/faculty-research/faculty/nicholas-bloom   Related Links:   Bonus segment with Nick: https://youtu.be/q2M0TLwV_Xw   *COVID-Induced Economic Uncertainty* by Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis, and Stephen J. Terry. https://www.nber.org/papers/w26983   *U.S. Economic Activity During the Early Weeks of the SARS-Cov-2 Outbreak* by Daniel J. Lewis, Karel Mertens, and Jim Stock. https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr920   *Depression Babies: Do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk-Taking?* by Ulrike Malmendier and Stefan Nagel. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1369049   *Managing with Style* by Marianne Bertrand and Antoinette Schoar. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=376880   *Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?* by Nicholas Bloom, Charles I. Jones, John Van Reenen, and Michael Webb. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3039019   *Does Working from Home Work? Evidence from a Chinese Experiment* by Nicholas A. Bloom, James Liang, John Roberts, Zhichun Jenny Ying https://nbloom.people.stanford.edu/sites/g/files/sbiybj4746/f/wfh.pdf   *How Many Jobs Can be Done at Home?* by Jonathan I. Dingel and Brent Neiman. https://bfi.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/BFI_White-Paper_Dingel_Neiman_3.2020.pdf   David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

One of the key ways we can be intentional this summer is in the area of fatherhood. In this episode, Pastor Gabe Jenkins has a conversation with Michael Webb on the topic of being an engaged and intentional father. In addition to being a dad to three, Michael is a husband and pilot for the Dept. of Homeland Security. He also leads a Fireteam group for dads designed to help fathers and their kids experience shared adventure.

Craig is on with Jack Heath this Monday morning. Today they talked about the Fort Worth kidnapping and how the Ring doorbells helped save the victim's life. They also talked about Microsoft's monster security bug, and how Amazon is expanding their freight services. These and more tech tips, news, and updates visit - CraigPeterson.com --- Related Articles  Microsoft Warns Of A Monster Computer Bug, In A Week Of Them Jeff Bezos Personally Dumps A Truckload Of Dirt On Fedex’s Future --- Below is a rush transcript of this segment, it might contain errors. Airing date: 05/20/2019 Ring Doorbells Can Save Lives - Microsoft Monster Security Bug - Amazon Expanding Freight Craig Peterson 0:00 Hey, good morning everybody. My computer died, you're not gonna believe this. Wow. Also was on with Jack Heath this morning Microsoft had big monster security bug, computer bug, Jeff Bezos, we talked about a little bit this morning. And these Ring doorbells and others are they something you should use? Yeah, my computer, I have a Mac Pro that I've had the, you know, 2013 was the last time they really updated this thing. And mine's been just giving me nothing but problems lately. And you know, yeah, I went through all the normal stuff you try and reinstall, you reset the computer, you go back to default, you do all of the things you're trying to really see if maybe something else is going on because it's just kind of wacky and slow. So I decided i'd order another CPU this would be an upgraded one. So 12 core CPU, which is really kind of cool. And just upgraded I get about 50% boost because it's an eight core right now. So we took it all apart. Then you know we have all the tools to do it and the static control, stuff you need and everything. And we opened it up and right up, man I couldn't believe this, that the top of the chip of the main processor, of course it's right on a heatsink and it very cool heatsink. If you've never seen a Mac Pro, you gotta check this thing out. It kind of looks like a little trash can. But they did an amazing job with the cooling on this. So right at the top in the center. It is melted. Yeah, the copper from the heatsink is melted right onto the chip and the heatsink itself has a hole in it. It is absolutely astounding. I have not seen this sort of thing in decades, frankly, because Intel chips are pretty good about, at least it used to be, about slowing themselves down if they were overheating. They're not supposed to melt copper. And it was just absolutely amazing. So I took it down to the Apple Store. It's out of warranty right now. And hasn't been for probably a couple of years. And we took it down and told them about it first, called the business team at the store, they're always really helpful down there. And they set up an appointment for us. We brought it down, they had to look at it and they they had never seen anything like this before. And to me it's an obvious manufacturing problem. There was probably a contaminant in that goop that you put in the thermal heatsink goop between the CPU and the the basically the cooler, let's call it that, okay, the heatsink. And what probably happened is that's probably where the hole in the heatsink came from, is it did not have really good thermal coupling, and ended up melting. And of course subtle cause all kinds of weird ass problems with the computer. And that's probably what I've been experiencing now for a few years. So it was really kind of an eye opener. And now they're gonna charge me I found a new heatsinks for this computer. And remember, this is kind of a fancy computer. So the heatasinks I found were $400 for a new one online and refurbished on eBay bathes 120 bucks, which isn't too bad. So we were thinking about doing that before we took it down. But Apple said that if it would be 250 bucks, and they would do reattach the GPUs and get the CPU all set up properly. Now that's a really good deal, frankly, because whoever touches it last owns it right? So I didn't I would have had to have removed the GPUs these are the graphic processing units. Mine had two high end GPUs in it. Or I guess it does have right? Now past tense. And so they'll have to remove those, clean those off, put mount them properly with the right heatsink material on to that new heatsink. And I'm going to put them, I'm going to give them that brand new CPU and put it in the machine and then they will mount that up as well and then put the whole machine back together. So I should have a machine that's good for me for the next few years again, so knock on wood. I don't know how long it's going to take Apple to come up with the new Mac Pro. There's been some kind of artists renderings of what people would love to see. We really don't know what Apple's going to do yet. There's supposed to have been one last year now they're supposed to be one this year. Their rumors are in fact there's even a statement from Apple that'll probably be next year. But you know for now, if you need a real high end Mac get the iMac pro which is really a nice machine. But anyhow, so that's been my little, what do you want to call this journey over the last week? Very interesting to me anyways, okay, so here we go. Let's get into this morning's conversation with Mr. Jack Heath. Jack Heath 5:12 In terms of our on demand podcast, but joining us now on the Auto Fair listener lines, our regular contributor our Tech Talk guy Craig Peterson on this Monday morning. Good morning Craig Craig 5:21 Hey good morning. Boy this has been a busy week in tech everything from Jeff Bezos going and building his own airport starting last week, all the way through huge security problems this last week as well. Jack 5:36 You know, I'm going to come back to Bezos and Amazon but real quick, you know, this Fort Worth kidnapping story this morning. Michael Webb suspect extensive criminal history. That's a good thing but kidnapping an eight year old girl who was walking with her mother, you know, extensive criminal history of the suspect. But you know Craig these doorbell videos? Are you a fan of these? These? These of the right on the this? I don't know the company but you know the video right and right in your front door? Craig 6:02 Yeah, there's a few of those out there. And the biggest one right now has had major security problems. Turns out all of the videos that have ever been recorded, were available on the internet for anyone within the organization to watch it anytime. But yeah, there was more and more of that. And I think it's kind of good. Frankly. Jack 6:22 I was gonna ask you if you're a fan of them. Yeah. Because in this case, apparently, all these things sort of helped put the pieces together to get the suspect or at least figure out what happened. Craig 6:32 Yeah, well, these Ring doorbells are probably the ones you're thinking of, they're very common out there. And their video doorbells, you can get different models anywhere from 100 to $200. Some of them get even a little more expensive. And the whole idea behind them is they have a built in video camera, they also have a motion detector. So that when someone comes up to your door, you know that there's somebody there, or maybe they're dropping off a package rather than doing something else. Some of them record all of the time. And there's even a feature on it, so that you can link your doorbell in with other people in your neighborhood, so that you can kind of track things. So if something like this does happen, whether it's someone who's grabbing packages from the porch, a porch pirate, you know, packages that don't belong to them, or heaven forbid something like this kidnapping, you can look at other people in your neighborhoods videos as well to try and figure out what might have happened. Jack 7:30 Alright, so getting back to Mr. Bezos, is it just me and who am I to say this, but you know, it just seems that some of these, I don't maybe they get bored running their own company. But you know, when you have Amazon, and it's, you know, the robotics and the you know, the way they're marketing, you know, what you say is like doing his own airport wants to do this or go to the moon, you know, or fly to Mars, what, at some point do the is that? Is that problematic for the company's future or not? I mean, that's speculation. It's a speculative question. Craig 8:00 Well, look at what's happening right now in New Hampshire with Amazon. We have now same day delivery in much of New Hampshire, certainly in the southern tier for some of the Amazon products. That's getting to the point where it will be same day delivery. So what Amazon needs is a way to deliver to our homes quickly and inexpensively. So they've already cut a lot of the contracts with the major carriers out there. They have a setup right now, where they are paying people who are working for Amazon currently, to go and start a delivery company for Amazon, you have all these individual contractors, so they're trying to keep costs under control. And now what they're doing is they're building right outside Cincinnati, a 3 million square foot airport. This thing's going to have a parking garage on this airport for 100 cargo jets. So the FedEx and UPS and these other companies that have been hauling for Amazon are no longer going to be hauling. Amazon is going to keep getting more and more of the costs under control. And we're going to end up with a two hour delivery which is already available from Amazon's Whole Foods division, you know the grocery store so you can in much again of New Hampshire, you can order something online, a food product and have it delivered within two hours. So that's what he's aiming at. These drone deliveries have not been working out too well yet. They're still really a few years away before it really starts happening. So you entering your question. Yeah, they are looking at a company like Amazon, they are trying to increase the deliverability of the goods, decrease the time, decrease the cost. But you have companies like Facebook, that are now into robotics are building new robots and tying them into AI and doing all kinds of weird things. At least Bezos seems to be sticking with selling and delivering. Jack 10:04 Far being from  me to question him and the guy's been you know, seemingly brilliant and even survived his they say an expensive divorce. All right Craig, what else, before we let you go, a Tech Talk tip.  Craig 10:16 Oh, this is an absolutely huge one, we found out Intel really messed up again. And pretty much any computer made since 2011, that uses Intel chips is vulnerable to this new, nasty nasty one of the worst hack, hackability problems out there. So Microsoft has 17 critical patches this month, including some patches that will fix some of these Intel problems. But in order to be completely secure here, Jack, you're going to lose 40% of your performance on your Intel chips. And this is something that is driving Apple leaving further away from Intel. So expect in within the next year or so to see Apple Computers probably switching away from Intel in maybe even entirely. Jack 11:05 Alright Craig, I appreciate all the Tech Talk. Thank you very much on this Monday morning and you have a great Memorial Day. Craig 11:11 Take care. You too, Jack. Craig 11:18 By the way, everybody this week's kind of a busy week, we are repositioning our websites looks like we're going to change the email provider and stuff. So things might be a little iffy here over the next few weeks. So you know, keep that in mind. Right? I might not be as regular a podcaster as I have been, or email or website updates, but we'll see how this all ends up going. So anyways, have a great week as we prepare for some amazing things that are coming your way we're going to have some little mini courses and other things to we're going to make available to people anyways. Have a great day and week I should be back tomorrow. We'll see. We'll see how things go. Hopefully I don't have another computer, bite the big one on me. Take care bye bye --- More stories and tech updates at: www.craigpeterson.com Don't miss an episode from Craig. Subscribe and give us a rating: www.craigpeterson.com/itunes Message Input: Message #techtalk Follow me on Twitter for the latest in tech at: www.twitter.com/craigpeterson For questions, call or text: 855-385-5553

In this special episode, Jon talks to Michael Webb (Founder) and Cyndy Trivella (Vice President, Strategic Relations) of WorkScene.  We talk about how social media has not been the "magic bullet" of recruiting, the concepts of inbound recruiting and building talent communities, and how WorkScene fits into your recruiting strategy. How to contact Michael and Cyndy: https://www.facebook.com/WorkSceneHQ https://twitter.com/worksceneHQ  https://www.instagram.com/worksceneHQ/ https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCD5JMaNP28tBM05n-9KZGtg?disable_polymer=true https://www.linkedin.com/in/cyndytrivella/https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelwebb3/   Listeners can use the code FREE19 to receive a complimentary 12 month Pro Account on Workscene!

Topic: Joining AntlerBoy and JP today at the Outliers Inn is Michael Webb, President of Sales Performance Consultants.  Michael will share the wisdom he has gained working in sales; from his start at Borroughs Corporation, and Rockwell Automation before founding his firm in 2002.  Most people believe there are two types of sales forecasts; wrong ones and lucky ones.  But Michael believes this is wrong – even lazy.  That there are ways of structuring a sales organizations and its processes so that the results are optimized and predictable, with an emphasis on working on what opportunities are real and which are hope – and hope is not a strategy, hope is dope.  Listen closely, perhaps you will gain insights for improving the sales results in your organization. Hosts: Joseph Paris, Founder of the OpEx Society & The XONITEK Group of Companies   Benjamin Taylor,  Managing Partner of RedQuadrant. Guests: Michael Webb Company: Sales Performance Consultants LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaeljwebb/ About Michael: Michael Webb is the President of Sales Performance Consultants.  He helps B2B companies turn sales and marketing into a continuously improving system that finds, wins, and keeps the right customers, and does it in a way salespeople love.  He works directly with the leadership teams to create tangible outcomes for your company to; Get sales and marketing departments to align almost effortlessly on what creates value and what doesn’t. Get people to stop spinning their wheels on the wrong prospects, flashy technology, and sales training that doesn’t get used. Help salespeople to become more effective with sales skills that are baked into the business, rather than into personalities. Add visibility to deal flow where the data will reveal which bottlenecks are most critical. Help the team to prioritize and implement the best improvement ideas. And, bottom-line, improve sales productivity, and margins relative to competitors

“Social recruiting” has been a buzzword as long as social media has been around. But this week’s guests say social recruiting as we know it has failed. It’s tough to give candidates an accurate picture of the company and great companies don’t stand out in the crowded social arena. How can we make social recruiting better? Listen in for ideas from Michael Webb and Cyndy Trivella from WorkScene.

[This post was up a few weeks ago before getting taken down for complicated reasons. They have been sorted out and I’m trying again.] Is scientific progress slowing down? I recently got a chance to attend a conference on this topic, centered around a paper by Bloom, Jones, Reenen & Webb (2018). BJRW identify areas where technological progress is easy to measure – for example, the number of transistors on a chip. They measure the rate of progress over the past century or so, and the number of researchers in the field over the same period. For example, here’s the transistor data:  This is the standard presentation of Moore’s Law – the number of transistors you can fit on a chip doubles about every two years (eg grows by 35% per year). This is usually presented as an amazing example of modern science getting things right, and no wonder – it means you can go from a few thousand transistors per chip in 1971 to many million today, with the corresponding increase in computing power. But BJRW have a pessimistic take. There are eighteen times more people involved in transistor-related research today than in 1971. So if in 1971 it took 1000 scientists to increase transistor density 35% per year, today it takes 18,000 scientists to do the same task. So apparently the average transistor scientist is eighteen times less productive today than fifty years ago. That should be surprising and scary. But isn’t it unfair to compare percent increase in transistors with absolute increase in transistor scientists? That is, a graph comparing absolute number of transistors per chip vs. absolute number of transistor scientists would show two similar exponential trends. Or a graph comparing percent change in transistors per year vs. percent change in number of transistor scientists per year would show two similar linear trends. Either way, there would be no problem and productivity would appear constant since 1971. Isn’t that a better way to do things? A lot of people asked paper author Michael Webb this at the conference, and his answer was no. He thinks that intuitively, each “discovery” should decrease transistor size by a certain amount. For example, if you discover a new material that allows transistors to be 5% smaller along one dimension, then you can fit 5% more transistors on your chip whether there were a hundred there before or a million. Since the relevant factor is discoveries per researcher, and each discovery is represented as a percent change in transistor size, it makes sense to compare percent change in transistor size with absolute number of researchers. Anyway, most other measurable fields show the same pattern of constant progress in the face of exponentially increasing number of researchers. Here’s BJRW’s data on crop yield: The solid and dashed lines are two different measures of crop-related research. Even though the crop-related research increases by a factor of 6-24x (depending on how it’s measured), crop yields grow at a relatively constant 1% rate for soybeans, and apparently declining 3%ish percent rate for corn. BJRW go on to prove the same is true for whatever other scientific fields they care to measure. Measuring scientific progress is inherently difficult, but their finding of constant or log-constant progress in most areas accords with Nintil’s overview of the same topic, which gives us graphs like …and dozens more like it. And even when we use data that are easy to measure and hard to fake, like number of chemical elements discovered, we get the same linearity:

Michael Webb is starring as Rosencrantz in Busan English Theatre Association’s upcoming performance of Tom Stoppard’s Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are Dead – and let me tell you folks: He’s a bit of a wild card. We talk about the play, childhood memories, Michael’s days as a semi-professional wrestler, being sodomized, and memories of regret. Listen carefully for a chance to win a ticket to the play. More information about the production, including times and how to buy tickets, can be found on facebook by searching Busan English Theatre Association. If you enjoy the podcast, please subscribe on iTunes or whatever podcasting app you use. Leave a super hot review on iTunes, tell a friend, and I love ya.

This episode features economist Michael Webb, who recently co-authored a paper titled "Are ideas getting harder to find?" It demonstrates that the number of researchers it takes to produce a technological innovation has gone up dramatically over time. Michael and Julia discuss various possible explanations for why this is happening, along with several challenges to his paper.

What are the chances of striking gold in your own backyard? What if your discovery turns out to be priceless? In 1979, Michael Webb and his son, also named Michael, unearthed a treasure hoard on an ancient monastic site in Tipperary that included the Derrynaflan Chalice. Who is entitled to this priceless find, the state or the person who found it?

Ex Mormon Files - 210 - Michael Webb by The Ex-Mormon Files

FROM THE SOUTH BRONX TO SOUTH AFRICA. Global citizenship is more than a notion. African American and Latino students are among the groups least likely to participate in international study. We believe that has to change in order to cultivate visionary leaders in our community who value their culture, and who can bring global perspectives and strategies to the challenges we face. That is why we need your support. Please become an IYLI donor. Join the founder of the International Youth Leadership Institute, Michael Webb and an IYLI fellow Zion Decoteau on The Gist of Freedom! www.BlackHistoryUniversity.com   Watch The Vide! African Made Electric Car http://bit.ly/AfricanElectricCar   Tonight @ 8pm, join The Gist of Freedom as we discuss "FROM THE SOUTH BRONX TO SOUTH AFRICA" with the founder of the International Youth Leadership Institute, Michael Webb and an IYLI fellow 16 year old Zion! Global citizenship is more than a notion. African American and Latino students are among the groups least likely to participate in international study. We believe that has to change in order to cultivate visionary leaders in our community who value their culture, and who can bring global perspectives and strategies to the challenges we face. That is why we need your support. Please become an IYLI donor. Join the founder of the International Youth Leadership Institute, Michael Webb and an IYLI fellow Zion on The Gist of Freedom! www.BlackHistoryUniversity.com @GistofFreedom The Kantanka Odeneho III is an electric SUV made by Great Kantanka Automobile Company in Ghana. From video journalist Thomas Bitlegma in Ghana.

It’s Great to be me when I get to interview folks like Michael Webb. Its Gr8 2 Be me is a national real time self serve event calendar offering one central location to find things to do, places to go, products and services centered on family. ITSGR82BEME.COM The post Episode 16 – ItsGr82beMe Events for Kids and Families appeared first on Innovator's Pod.

For our thirty-fourth episode, we talk to Michael Webb from Alliance Games Distribution.

Join Minister McCarty for an Interview with authour, musician and songewritter; Michael Webb. House dance break by Dj Frankie Vibe