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4 episodes with dave wasserman
4 episodes with dave wasserman
5 episodes with dave wasserman
3 episodes with dave wasserman
2 episodes with dave wasserman
2 episodes with dave wasserman
2 episodes with dave wasserman
4 episodes with dave wasserman
2 episodes with dave wasserman
Ever wonder how Beltway insiders assess which congressional seats are potential flips, and therefore worth a cash infusion? Since the late 1990s, a favorite tool for pros has been the Cook Political Report's PVI — the Partisan Voter Index. Today, Henry catches up with Dave Wasserman to look into how the PVI is calculated and to […]
Ever wonder how Beltway insiders assess which congressional seats are potential flips, and therefore worth a cash infusion? Since the late 1990s, a favorite tool for pros has been the Cook Political Report’s PVI — the Partisan Voter Index. Today, Henry catches up with Dave Wasserman to look into how the PVI is calculated and to […]
Ever wonder how Beltway insiders assess which congressional seats are potential flips, and therefore worth a cash infusion? Since the late 1990s, a favorite tool for pros has been the Cook Political Report’s PVI — the Partisan Voter Index. Today, Henry catches up with Dave Wasserman to look into how the PVI is calculated and to […]
At the 100-day mark of Trump's second term, his approval ratings are the lowest for any newly elected president in over 50 years and economic warning signs are pointing toward a recession. This should be a clear sign that Democrats will be successful in the 2026 election as they try to flip the House, but infighting might be getting in their way. This week on The Gaggle, a politics podcast by The Arizona Republic and azcentral.com, hosts Ron Hansen and Mary Jo Pitzl are joined by Dave Wasserman. He's the senior editor and elections analyst for the non-partisan Cook Political Report. Email us! thegaggle@arizonarepublic.com Leave us a voicemail: 602-444-0804 Follow us on X, Instagram and Tik Tok. Guest: Dave Wasserman, senior editor & election analyst at Cook Political Report Hosts: Ron Hansen, Mary Jo Pitzl Producer: Amanda Luberto Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
MIRS' podcast host Samantha Shriber kicks things off with several news updates. For example, the state Senate last week approved bills creating a Prescription Drug Affordability Board (PDAB), required to investigate high drug costs and authorized to set price caps (:55). Moreover, MIRS discussed Michigan politics last week with Dave Wasserman, the Cook Political Report's senior editor and elections analyst (11:10). He talks about Democrats' progressive U.S. Senate candidates, and how D.C. and Michigan folk differ when it comes to hot takes on U.S. Rep. John James (R-Shelby Township) and Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.
In this packed episode, Chuck opens with a sobering assessment of President Trump's plummeting approval ratings and questions about his administration's credibility before diving into critical structural concerns about the Department of Justice's independence and the need to expand the House of Representatives. He shifts to Florida politics, where a brewing corruption scandal threatens the governor's race and Republicans are increasingly willing to challenge Ron DeSantis's weakened political standing. New York Congressman Dan Goldman joins for an extended interview about the concept of rule of law before and after his experience during impeachment proceedings. Goldman offers insights into Trump's challenges to fundamental constitutional principles and proposes concrete reforms to better protect America's democratic institutions, including codifying limits on presidential interference in prosecutions, strengthening congressional subpoena powers, and potentially restructuring the Justice Department with Federal Reserve-like independence.The episode's second half features political handicapper Dave Wasserman analyzing the evolving electoral landscape heading into the midterms. Wasserman explains how understanding local communities is crucial to predicting election outcomes, while lamenting the lack of quality coverage in smaller markets. He delivers a forecast that Democrats could see sizable gains in the House, with Trump's tariff policies potentially hurting Republicans in farm states. The discussion explores gerrymandering's changing impact, with both parties now complaining about the practice, and examines how the 2030 census might reshape the electoral map. Finally, they discuss the prospect of a “blue wave” in the 2026 midterm elections and whether we could see one or both chambers of congress change hands.Timeline00:00 Multiple polls show sharp approval rating drop for Trump03:00 Trump's spokespeople are losing credibility05:00 Department of Justice needs more independence 7:30 The House of Representatives needs to be expanded8:45 White House Correspondents weekend was awkward12:15 Corruption scandal looming over Florida governor race13:15 Florida Republicans are no longer afraid of Ron DeSantis15:30 Ron DeSantis may be weaker, but Florida Democrats aren't stronger17:00 The Shedeur Sanders commentary was ridiculous19:10 Congressman Dan Goldman joins the show19:40 What are the highlights of his district, NY-10? 26:35 What did "rule of law" mean to you before and after working on the impeachment proceedings? 30:25 Fundamental tenets of rule of law are being challenged 31:00 Amendments 4-10 are about equal protection under the law, for citizens and non-citizens 34:20 Trump has exposed why government is susceptible to leaders willing to break their oath of office 36:10 We need to codify into law that the president can't weigh in on individual prosecutions 38:40 Enforcement of congressional subpoenas needs legal teeth 41:30 Should we set up Justice with a level of independence like we did with the Federal Reserve? 48:40 If impeachment couldn't hold Trump accountable, why would the justice system? 50:10 Trump's conduct warranted prosecution 52:55 The impeachment process is broken 54:10 Trump has an unexplained infatuation for Vladimir Putin 7:25 The Republican majority in the House has turned all of their authority over to Trump 1:01:40 What can Democratic members of congress do other than speak out? 1:05:25 If Democrats want to win in 2026, what should they be talking about? 1:08:55 Is Andrew Cuomo vs Eric Adams really the best that NYC can do?1:14:45 Chuck's thoughts on his conversation with Dan Goldman1:17:35 Dave Wasserman joins the show! 1:19:35 Mainstreaming interest in political handicapping 1:24:05 Understanding a local community is crucial to handicapping 1:27:05 Smaller markets not getting coverage they deserve 1:28:20 Determining how competitive a race will be? 1:31:05 House map is less skewed than it used to be 1:34:35 Complaining about gerrymandering has become more bipartisan 1:36:05 Democrats could see sizeable midterm gains 1:42:50 How will retirements affect the midterms? 1:4:05 Tariffs will cost Republicans in the farm states 1:45:05 Kansas headed toward swing state status? 1:48:05 Reappropriation from 2030 census could add several new red seats 1:49:35 Can Republicans further gerrymander states like Texas and Florida? 1:53:35 Virginia governor race isn't that competitive 1:58:50 Conventional wisdom is that Democrats shouldn't choose a woman for 28 1:59:50 Is a blue wave developing? 2:01:05 Trump doesn't care about Republicans other than himself2:03:16 Chuck's final thoughts
NBC News Chief Foreign Correspondent Richard Engel reports on the latest from Syria about missing American Austin Tice. Rep. Robert Garcia (D-Calif.) joins Meet the Press NOW to respond to President-elect Donald Trump's immigration plans. Minnesota Democratic Party Chair Ken Martin discusses why he is running to be DNC chair. Dave Wasserman, senior editor and elections analyst for the Cook Political Report, explains the key takeaways from the 2024 election.
The Rich Zeoli Show- Hour 4: 6:05pm- PA Senate Race Recount. According to Dave McCormick's campaign team, four counties in Pennsylvania have concluded their recount—and only 6 votes were changed. The Associated Press has already declared McCormick the winner though sitting Senator Bob Casey has refused to concede. 6:15pm- New Jersey is Now A Swing State. Victor Nava of The New York Post writes: “Deep blue New York and New Jersey saw the largest shifts nationwide toward President-elect Donald Trump in the 2024 election, according to a top analyst. Dave Wasserman, a senior editor and elections analyst with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, found an 11.5% swing toward Trump in the Empire State and a similarly impressive 10.1% movement in the Republican's favor in the Garden State compared to the 45th president's 2020 results.” You can read the full article here: https://nypost.com/2024/11/18/us-news/ny-and-nj-had-double-digit-swings-toward-trump-leading-the-way-nationwide/ 6:40pm- Last week, Donald Trump appointed Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy to head the newly created Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) which will seek to find and eliminate wasteful spending practices throughout the federal government. During a segment of The Daily Show, Jon Stewart admitted that the 2024 election proved to be a repudiation of the bureaucratic system.
We discuss a nationwide shift to the right and the voters who made a Trump victory possible. Plus, the Fed cut interest rates again as inflation approaches their target of 2%. And, what role the economy played in the election. George Conway, Dave Wasserman, Maria Teresa Kumar, Erik Schatzker, Peter Goodman, and Nicholas Kristof join the 11th Hour this Thursday.
Guests: Anderson Clayton, McKay Coppins, Dave Wasserman, Tatishe Nteta, Dr. Caitlin BernardDonald Trump pivots to the issues and the latest evidence of momentum for Kamala Harris. Plus, the economic fight in light of good news on inflation. The swing state no one thought was in play because of the radical MAGA agenda. Then, she's the abortion provider who risked her career to care for a 10 year old rape victim. Dr. Caitlin Bernard on why the state of Indiana is finally letting it go. Want more of Chris? Download and subscribe to his podcast, “Why Is This Happening? The Chris Hayes podcast” wherever you get your podcasts.
Despite a party-wide effort urging Trump to pivot to policy, he just can't seem to muster the discipline to talk about any issues. And for two former Senators who know the focus it takes to win a competitive race, it's wild to watch. This week, former Senator Claire McCaskill's Senate colleague Heidi Heitkamp joins her as guest-host. After weighing the latest musings from JD Vance's audio vault, the two ‘post-menopausal grandmas' remind him that older women are still able to vote. Claire also asks Heidi to give some perspective on the unique opportunity the Harris-Walz team has to reach rural voters. Then, Cook Political Report's Dave Wasserman stops by for a deep dive into the latest Harris-Trump polling, how to understand the margin-of-error in a given sample, and how the down-ballot races are shaping up after the shift to the vice president's candidacy. Want to listen to this show without ads? Sign up for MSNBC Premium on Apple Podcasts. As a subscriber you'll also be able to get occasional bonus content from this and other shows.
In this special six-part narrative series, Mike Madrid, in partnership with the UC Irvine School of Social Ecology, takes a deep dive into Orange County, California to explore the transformations that have redefined politics there, and what it means for the rest of the country. In this episode, Mike talks to legendary political strategist Stu Spencer about how Orange County became Reagan Country. Then he discusses the county's changing political demographics with one of the best election forecasters, Dave Wasserman from the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. (02:19) Orange County: Reagan Country and the American Dream (09:41) A data driven take on what's changing the political demographics (11:53) What Loretta Sanchez's victory meant (24:38) How Asian voters are impacting county politics Learn more about the UC Irvine School of Social Ecology: https://socialecology.uci.edu/ Visit the Red County, Blue County, Orange County website: https://sites.uci.edu/orangecounty/ Read Mike's book, The Latino Century: https://bit.ly/4a7ZCqg Follow Mike and the UCI School of Social Ecology on X (formerly Twitter): https://twitter.com/madrid_mike https://twitter.com/Social_Ecology Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Guests: Rep. Jim Clyburn, George Conway, Dave Wasserman, James Carville, Rep. Jasmine Crockett, Jason RezaianShe's only just secured enough delegates to become the Democratic nominee—but Kamala Harris has been rocketing up the polls ever since she announced her candidacy. Plus, the next big thing on the Harris campaign to-do list: Picking a vice president. Then, Simone Biles is one of the most dominant Olympians in American history. But JD Vance still found a way to be a total weirdo about her. And the incredible moment when three Americans imprisoned in Russia finally arrived home. Want more of Chris? Download and subscribe to his podcast, “Why Is This Happening? The Chris Hayes podcast” wherever you get your podcasts.
President Biden's fundraiser with former Presidents Obama and Clinton raises $26 million but gets interrupted by pro-Palestinian protestors. NBC News sits down with the parents of detained journalist Evan Gershkovich on the anniversary of his arrest in Russia. Dave Wasserman breaks down the illegal congressional map that South Carolina is set to use in November. Kristen Welker hosts a fireside chat with Govs. Maura Healey (D-Mass.) and Chris Sununu (R-N.H.).
Tom Llamas and Hallie Jackson anchor an NBC News NOW Special Report, as caucusgoers in Iowa make their voices heard. Featuring analysis from Chuck Todd, Dave Wasserman, Ann Selzer, Mary Katherine Ham, Hogan Gidley, former Congressman Carlos Curbelo (R-Fla.) and David Plouffe.
Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) announced she is switching congressional districts for her 2024 run. Dave Wasserman, Senior Editor & Elections Analyst at The Cook Political Report, joins Meet the Press NOW to explain the implications of this change. NBC Campaign Embed Greg Hyatt explains Nikki Haley's response after her civil war comments. A second American-Israeli hostage is declared dead after being held in Hamas captivity. Mayors of New York, Denver and Chicago call for federal assistance as the migrant crisis continues to develop.
As President Joe Biden visits Minnesota, U.S. Rep. Dean Phillips remains on an introductory swing in New Hampshire in his bid for the presidential nomination. He has his first town hall meeting Wednesday in the Granite State and joined Cathy Wurzer on Morning Edition. Biden heads for Minnesota to showcase rural goals amid global instability The following transcript has been edited for clarity. Listen to the full conversation using the audio player above.I know you said you wanted to speak with the president before you got into the race. If you had the opportunity, what would you have told him?Well, I would have loved to see him face-to-face. And I would have given him a hug and expressed my gratitude, and then expressed the country's desire to pass the torch, to turn the page. 80 percent of the country, as he well knows, is looking for new leadership. The president knows that over 50 percent of Democrats are looking for a different nominee. And the president knows that 83 percent of Democrats under 30 years old are looking for a new nominee. The president also knows that he's trailing Donald Trump by nine points nationally, the president knows that he's trailing Donald Trump in five of the six battleground states. And the president knows that his approval ratings are at historic lows of 37 percent as of last week. And the president knows that his vice president is even lower at 33 percent. And the President knows that if Democrats don't win the next election, Donald Trump will be the president. And that's what this is about, Cathy. It is a fundamental issue of the existential threat to the United States of America and democracy as we know it. And I would have thanked him for being the bridge that he promised to be. I would have thanked him for being the transitional President that he promised to be. And I would have thanked him for leading the country through difficult years. But I believe the president also knows the country's ready for change, and to pass the torch, and I'm presenting a bold vision for the future — a reunification or repairing, if you will — of the country, and demonstrating respect for all people, regardless of races, colors, religions and politics. And it is time for this country to move on. Because we are in crisis. We need bold leadership and it's time for a new generation. And that's what I would have said.There had been comparisons between your run for president in the 1968 campaign of Minnesota's Eugene McCarthy — far different times between both campaigns we should say. But the result of McCarthy's candidacy, as you know, was President Johnson withdrawing from the race after McCarthy's showing that year in New Hampshire and the Democrats lost the White House in ‘68. Why do you think a run is worth it if Donald Trump wins next year?That's why I'm running Cathy, I just made that case a moment ago. That's exactly why an alternative Democrat needed to run. It is me now and Marianne Williamson are the two other options. Donald Trump will win the next election if it is President Biden versus Donald Trump. That's what the numbers are saying. That's what I'm hearing around the country. That's what members of Congress are beginning to understand. That's what James Carville, that's what Dave Wasserman, that's what David Ignatius — the great writers and pollsters and pundits in this country all know. And it is a red alert. If… if Democrats want to see another Trump presidency, they have the choice to vote for President Biden. If Democrats do not want another Donald Trump presidency, they should have a choice. And all I'm doing is presenting a choice that I know America is looking for. My name recognition is low, my energy is high. My vision for the future — bold, and I'm starting to introduce myself to the country. I will be respectful. I will be thoughtful. I will be strong. And I will meet everybody where they're at. And that's how we're going to run a race.And that's what Democrats do. We offer alternatives. We offer choices. And that's why we have primaries. And I also want to say, Cathy, Cornel West running as an independent, Robert Kennedy Jr. running as an independent, other groups contemplating running as independent candidates. That is dangerous. If Democrats wish to lose the election to Donald Trump, that's how you do it. You put up President Biden, you have third party candidates running. We need to mobilize into a primary and let Democratic voters all around the country select who they believe is best positioned to win the next election. That's how things work in this country. Thank goodness.You've invited other Democrats to join you in the race. You just mentioned a few. If a bigger name does jump in, would you get out?I wouldn't get out. But I would certainly welcome others. In fact, that's what this is about. I believe Democrats should be encouraging participation. Why are we suppressing candidates? It's happening all around the country. Coronations instead of competitions. So my invitation is into this race still. If there are people who are prepared, of good character, who can present alternatives for voters to select, by all means still do it. I'm glad Ron Harris has entered the race against me in Minnesota. I think primaries are healthy. And I'm encouraging others to look at it the same way. I don't think politicians should be protecting their power. I think people should be selecting those who they want to represent them in positions of power. And we are facing a crisis, not just because of domestic turmoil, international wars, we are facing a domestic crisis of suppression. And it's true. And I'm going to elevate that, because that is the case. And and it's dangerous, Cathy. It's very dangerous. And all I'm saying is people should have the freedom to choose. It's not rocket science.Do you think some of your fellow Democrats are trying to suppress your candidacy? And I asked you this because you are taking a lot of flack from other Democrats for running, including from Gov. Tim Walz, because he was on National Public Radio earlier this morning saying this:These are always challenging questions for me, mainly because he's a personal friend. And I don't understand what he's doing. I guess we have that in our life, friends and family who sometimes do crazy things, and we try and understand why. But as far as the president goes, and as far as things happen out here, it is absolutely irrelevant. We're focusing on the things that the president is getting done.Gov. Tim WalzWhat do you say to those who think you're doing permanent damage to your political reputation with this run?Well, you know, Cathy, a million Americans have given their life in defense of our country and its freedom. My father, among them, lost his life in Vietnam fighting for freedom. My role in this day and age, at this very moment, is doing the exact same thing as a representative in a government that is completely detached from the people that they are supposed to represent. Gov. Walz is a friend of mine, too. I think his words, frankly, are absurd. And he knows it because he sees the same polls that I do. He knows the same risk that I do. He knows that President Biden is not well positioned to beat Donald Trump, Donald Trump is going to be the nominee of the GOP almost certainly. And I do not know how people of good conscience, people in positions of power, could look at what is going on, could listen to voters, if they chose to do so, and make any other determination than we are facing a red alert, we are sleepwalking into an election in which the future of American democracy is absolutely at risk. And for Gov. Walz, or anybody else who makes comments like that, I do not understand how one could argue — as a Democrat mind you — how one could argue that having an alternative choice for Americans to select is bad for Minnesota, bad for the United States of America, and certainly right now, bad for the world. And Gov. Walz also knows that if I am not successful, I will wrap up my campaign, and I will give the same amount of energy, time and support to the eventual Democratic nominee, including President Biden, because that's how we do it in America in primaries. What is happening right now, Cathy, is the political-industrial complex is showing America what it really is: a group of people who wish to protect their positions at the expense of the very people they're supposed to be representing. And when Democrats of all people start suppressing candidacies — of decent people, people of character, people of competency — we are literally destroying the very democracy that we are supposed to be building, and to which we have taken an oath to defend. And it is that important. And I say to those who are saying those things, Cathy, look in the mirror, and then look at the numbers, and then look around at this country and what people are trying to say to our elected officials. And I gotta tell you, again, the beautiful thing about campaigning, Cathy, the most beautiful thing about getting out and meeting people, is the appetite for change. The anger at the institutions is much worse than I even imagined six days ago when I started my campaign. And if I have to take the arrows, and if I lose my career over this, I will have done what a million Americans before me have done, which is to literally put themselves on the line for the future of the country. If that bothers people…I have to interrupt you. If you lose your career over this, will you just not run for reelection in your district? Other DFLers have called for you to call off another run in the 3rd district over this move.Well, Cathy, believe it or not, we're going to win New Hampshire. And I do believe I will become the Democratic nominee because the good news is, still in this country, the great United States, voters make the decision. And despite what President Biden and the powers that be will try to do to prevent that, I promise you, if American voters are given that choice to vote, if they're given the choice, I believe they will make the right choice to defeat Donald Trump and start changing how our country moves to the future. Because if we think that using the same people in the same process and the same tools that people like President Biden had been using for 50 years… President Biden became a Senator when I was 3 years old, Cathy.I have about 15 seconds left.Then that's the case right there. If people listening right now think that the future will be made by doing the same thing with the same people in the same way, and it's going to work out just fine, I'd like to meet you. Spend 15 seconds with me, with what I have left. Thank you.Listen to the full conversation using the audio player above.
Dave Wasserman is the senior editor, U.S. House of Representatives for Cook Political Report. If only his young self could see him now...Dave reports that even as a young guy he loved maps and enjoyed drawing them and sharing them with others. He shares a story of how he once asked for a subscription for the Cook Political Report -- only to learn that it was far more than was in the budget. Fast forward to today, Dave is truly in his dream job -- analyzing data and sharing wisdom about elections and outcomes, all while coining a catch phrase when he's "seen enough"' to call it. Listen in today to learn more about the great work of Dave Wasserman.
The Hacks kick off 2023 with esteemed guest Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. Axe, Murphy, and Wasserman discuss the dramatic election for Speaker of the House and what it reveals about internal House dynamics, the discovery of classified documents in Biden's private office, the Biden administration's stance on immigration, and upcoming elections around the country to keep an eye on, including the Chicago mayoral race.
Christie Roberts is the DSCC Executive Director, coming off of the first cycle since 1962 when Senate Democrats expanded their majority while holding the White House...during a cycle when many observers assumed a "red wave" was imminent. Christie talks her path to politics, the importance of learning her craft in Montana politics, and managing Jon Tester's 2018 re-election. And, of course, going deep on all things 2022 Senate races...her original theory of the case of how to succeed in a tough cycle, how the DSCC tried to mold the GOP primary fields, the impact of the Dobbs' decision, the big difference in Dem vs GOP fundraising, and the message & strategic decisions that led to Democrats virtually running the table in the closest Senate races. IN THIS EPISODE…The well-known political figure Christie partnered with to help win an 8th grade election…The first campaign Christie ever worked…Christie talks how her background in political research prepped her to run big campaigns and orgs…Christie talks managing Tester 2018 and what makes him a different type of political figure…Christie's theory on why Montana produces so many talented Democratic operatives…Christie on the political tenacity of Chuck Schumer…Christie talks the leadership of DSCC Chair Gary Peters…Christie lays out the DSCC's initial theory-of-the-case as to how to hold the majority…Christie talks how the DSCC tried to dissuade GOP Govs Sununu and Ducey from running for Senate…Christie talks the “pivotal impact” of the Dobbs Supreme Court decision…Christie's expectations heading into Election Day…Christie on the GOP spin that Colorado and Washington were in play…The role that competitive losses in North Carolina and Ohio played in protecting the Democratic majority...Christie gets under the hood of the critical Democratic candidate fundraising advantages…Christie talks how Catherine Cortez Masto pulled off the cycle's closest Senate victory…Christie's take on how the Georgia runoff win in 2022 was different than in 2021…Christie's surprising similarities between Raphael Warnock and Jon Tester…Christie on some of the smart strategic decisions by the NRSC…Christie on how the “friction” between the NRSC and McConnell PACs likely hurt GOP candidates…Her lessons from 2022 to take to the 2024 cycle…What might surprise people about the day-to-day role running the DSCC…AND….300 clips a day, Samuel Alito, Tom Allen, Cheri Beasley, boot camps, Campaign Corps, Jay Carson, the Clinton Foundation, Susan Collins, dirt farmers, EMILYs List, earned media oxygen, Ebenezer Baptist Church, English Lit, entering field data at 11PM, flip phones, free advice, hands in the dirt, Maggie Hassan, hybrid ads, Mark Kelly, Brian Kemp, knife fights, red waves, Matt Rosendale, Tim Ryan, shooting distance, [solidcore], strong visibility gains, Sharla Tester, true alignment, JD Vance, Herschel Walker, Dave Wasserman, workhorses & more
EPISODE 90: COUNTDOWN WITH KEITH OLBERMANN A-Block (1:45) SPECIAL COMMENT: Eight different things - led by Raphael Warnock's victory over Herschel Walker in the Georgia runoff - went drastically wrong for Trump on Tuesday, so PARTY DOWN. (2:10) The Special Counsel not only issued subpoenas he expanded his investigation to include electoral fraud; the 1/6 Committee is (probably) going for criminal referrals; the Trump Organization convicted of 17 counts of...free cable? Ronna McDaniel turns on him over Georgia; Mitch McConnell turns on him over 'terminating' the Constitution; and the families of the January 6th Congressional Gold Medal recipients with a never-to-be-forgotten diss of Trump's nearest proxies, refusing to shake the hands of McConnell and Kevin McCarthy. B-Block (14:57) EVERY DOG HAS ITS DAY: Eddy in New York; (15:59) IN SPORTS: Cody Bellinger moves, Aaron Judge about to, J.T. Daniels AGAIN (19:39) THE WORST PERSONS IN THE WORLD: A New York newspaper confuses Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander; Arson Judge? Who the hell is ARSON Judge? And Kanye West is a long way from rock bottom. C-Block (23:46) THINGS I PROMISED NOT TO TELL: 17 years ago this week we found out the president of MSNBC didn't have cable, and was still congratulating himself on changes to Countdown he'd made a year before, and which we'd dropped after actually doing them only once. Also, as Lester Holt, Chris Matthews, Joe Scarborough, Jesse Ventura and I realized - in the men's room - the guy wasn't 6'7." He was 6'5" and for some reason he was lying about it!See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Highlights: “NBC News, though they have not officially called it, they are projecting a 99% probability of the Republicans taking the House!” “Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report points out that much of the electoral damage the Democrats suffered was in some of their most reliably blue areas. Democrats lost 5 seats in New York alone, in districts that had voted for Biden by double digits! Republicans had no problem holding on to red seats whereas the Democrats experienced some pretty significant losses in parts of the country that they never imagined would flip.” “So, that seems to be what's going on behind the scenes in the senate: a Walker run-off win and a Manchin flip give the Republicans Senate control.” Timestamps: [00:50] NBC News' projections on who's going to take the House [02:41] Where the Democrats got much of their losses [05:35] On the possibility of Republicans also taking control of the Senate Resources: Give your skin a healing feeling. Soothing benefits of pure Bentonite Clay. Made the Amish Way on a farm in South Dakota. Use Promo Code: TURLEY for an exclusive discount. Olde Country Soap. Experience the Tradition. Go to https://www.oldecountrysoap.com/ 1260 Major GOP WINS That The Legacy Media Won't Tell You About!!! Download your Ebooks and Dr. Steve's personal research sources and his list of woke alternatives for FREE at https://www.drsteveblueprints.com Get Over 66% OFF All of Mike Lindell's Products using code TURLEY: https://www.mypillow.com/turley Get 25% off Patriotic Coffee and ALL ITEMS with Code TURLEY at https://mystore.com/turley See how much your small business can get back from Big Gov (up to $26k per employee!) at https://ercspecialists.com/initial-survey?fpr=turley Join Dr. Steve's Exclusive Membership in the Insiders Club and watch content he can't discuss on YouTube during his weekly Monday night show!: https://insidersclub.turleytalks.com/welcome Get Your Brand-New PATRIOT T-Shirts and Merch Here: https://store.turleytalks.com/ It's time to CHANGE AMERICA and Here's YOUR OPPORTUNITY To Do Just That! https://change.turleytalks.com/ Fight Back Against Big Tech Censorship! Sign-up here to discover Dr. Steve's different social media options …. but without censorship! https://www.turleytalks.com/en/alternative-media.com Thank you for taking the time to listen to this episode. If you enjoyed this episode, please subscribe and/or leave a review. Do you want to be a part of the podcast and be our sponsor? Click here to partner with us and defy liberal culture! If you would like to get lots of articles on conservative trends make sure to sign-up for the 'New Conservative Age Rising' Email Alerts.
Guests: Tim Miller, Jacqueline Alemany, Stuart Stevens, Olivia Troye, Dave Wasserman, Maxwell Alejandro FrostChris Hayes breaks down the Republican infighting in the wake of their poor midterm performance, the fingers being pointed at the former president, the races that could decide who controls what will be a narrow House majority, and more. Plus, an interview with Gen Z's first member of Congress.
Eight weeks out from Election Day, John Heilemann welcomes The Cook Political Report's publisher and editor-in-chief, Amy Walter, and its senior editor, House of Representatives, Dave Wasserman, for a preview of what may be the most consequential midterm election of our lifetime. Walter and Wasserman assess the prospects of both parties at the House, Senate, and gubernatorial levels; the marked shift in the national political environment that has given Democrats an outside chance of retaining control of the House and picking up seats in the Senate; the factors that still favor Republicans, from the persistence of inflation to President Biden's approval ratings; the impact of Donald Trump (in light of both his success as a king-maker in the GOP primaries and his metastasizing legal woes) on the fall campaigns; and the potentially game-changing electoral fall-out from the Supreme Court's overturning of Roe v Wade. They also offer analysis of some of the country's most closely watched races — John Fetterman v. Dr. Oz in Pennsylvania, Raphael Warnock v. Herschel Walker and Stacey Abrams v. Brian Kemp in Georgia; Tim Ryan v. J.D. Vance in Ohio; Beto O'Rourke v. Greg Abbott in Texas; and more! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
The nation's Independence Day parades earlier this week included candidates waving to people they'll hope to win over by the time ballots are cast in November. Dave Wasserman of The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter joins Newsmakers to discuss the political landscape and some of the House and Senate races key to farm policy.Then, Anne MacMillan of Invariant and Randy Russell of The Russell Group discuss the situation facing Democrats and Republicans across the country in the upcoming midterms as well as the impacts the November elections will have on farm policy.Want to receive Newsmakers in your inbox every week? Sign up! http://eepurl.com/hTgSAD
Dave Wasserman, US House editor of the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, joins Axe and Gibbs to discuss the plethora of primaries happening around the country, what the results from recent races tell us about the national political environment, whether any voters will be swayed by the January 6th committee hearings, and how the politics of gun control will play out in suburban areas this fall.
Tuesday's elections in California and across the country saw the prevailing of more moderate politicians over their farther-left and farther-right opponents. Dave Wasserman, House editor of the Cook Political Report, and Melanie Mason, national political correspondent for the LA Times, join Chuck to break down the establishment candidates' cruise to victory.
Ken Spain, the founder of Narrative Strategies, had worked at high levels in Republican politics and corporate comms before starting his own strategic communications firm. He worked for the Bush/Cheney re-elect in 04, on the Hill for three different GOP members, at a senior position at the NRCC campaign committee, for the Private Equity Council during the tumultuous 2012 elections, & running corporate communications for Koch Industries. In this conversation, Ken talks his path through GOP politics, his perspective as a Hispanic operative, starting a bipartisan communications firm, and much more.IN THIS EPISODE…Ken grows up in Richard Nixon country in Southern California as the son of Reagan Democrats…Ken breaks into politics working in California legislative politics…Ken talks helping the George W. Bush re-election campaign carry New Mexico in 2004…What Ken's learned from mentor Ken Mehlman, manager of the 2004 Bush campaign…Ken spearheads an effort to help the private equity industry defend itself as it's attacked during the Mitt Romney presidential campaign…Ken talks lessons and tips learned from working for 3 members on Capitol Hill…Ken's breaks down the differences in a well run Hill office versus a poorly-run office…Ken's experience as a Hispanic operative working in GOP politics…Ken's take on why Trump overperformed expectations among Latino voters in 2020…Ken's level of optimism that California Republicans can start winning statewide soon…Ken contrasts working at the NRCC in the Dem wave year of 2008 versus the GOP wave in 2010…Ken talks his time running corporate communications for Koch Industries…Ken's analysis of what's often misunderstood about the Koch Brothers' approach to politics…Ken talks the founding of Narrative Strategies and the firm's growth over the past few years…Ken's best practices for developing a professional network…AND 100 hours of focus groups, the 210 freeway, Americans for Prosperity, arcane business models, Bain Capital, Bernalillo County, Tony Blair, Blue Dogs, John Boehner, Rick Boucher, Brexit, Bobby Bright, British Victorian History, Scott Brown, Lois Capps, classical liberalism, Clovis, Tom Cole, community colleges, Mike Conaway, Charlie Cook, dark money, Gray Davis, Tom Davis, Danny Diaz, David Dreier, Larry Elder, flip-floppers, Fullerton, James Gandolfini, Newt Gingrich, Ari Gold, Barry Goldwater, Scott Jennings, jumpballs, Las Cruces, the Latino Summit, Bob Margett, Mary Queen of Scots, Mike McCaul, Kevin McCarthy, Ken Mehlman, moving down the dais, Gavin Newsom, Jim Oberstar, David Obey, Leon Panetta, pension funds, The Private Equity Council, pumpjacks, Harry Reid, Richard Riordan, Santa Barbara, Steve Schmidt, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Pete Sessions, John Shadegg, Bill Simon, Ike Skelton, John Spratt, surprise medical billing, Dave Wasserman, Wichita, Pete Wilson…& more!
Former Pres. Trump's influence on the GOP is being tested as the Pennsylvania GOP Senate primary remains too close to call. Meantime, we learn of the growing threat of violence tied to white supremacy after a racist rampage in Buffalo left 10 people dead. Plus, Pres. Biden invokes the Defense Production Act to boost baby formula manufacturing to ease shortage. And the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv reopens with a flag-raising. Philip Rucker, Dave Wasserman, Barbara McQuade, Jonathan Greenblatt, Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, Jake Ward and Josh Brown join.
Dave Wasserman, a Senior Editor at the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, is universally regarded as one of the foremost election analysts on the planet - especially when it comes to US House races. In this conversation, Dave talks his early obession with all things politics, how he turned that into a job at the Cook Report, his approach to political analysis, the story behind his twitter catchphrase "I've seen enough", and his take on both the 2022 redistricting developments & overall House playing field. IN THIS EPISODE…Dave's early love of maps…How a cable system glitch leads Dave to find politics…Dave's unusual gift request for his 13th Birthday…The one race that drew Dave into congressional politics…The story behind a teenage Dave's appearance as a pundit on a local public affairs show…Dave talks his important intersection with UVA Professor Larry Sabato…The $10 bet Dave won from Larry Sabato…The college analysis Dave wrote that led to his role with the Cook Report…Dave talks the approach he brings to elections analysis…What goes into creating Dave's election night models…Dave on the races he's proud he got right, plus some that surprised him…Dave talks trends he's observed in House races during his time as a race-rater…Dave takes us behind the scenes of the NBC Election Night Decision Desk…The origin of Dave's catchphrase to call elections…Dave breaks down the average work week for a race-rating analyst…Dave talks his longtime fascination with the redistricting process…Dave gives his thoughts on the 2022 redistricting process…Dave provides an update on recent legal ground that's been broken around redistricting…Dave's overall read on the '22 House playing field…Dave talks signs the Trump hold on the House GOP caucus may be weakening…Dave's advice to the next generation of race-raters…AND 2,568 districts, George Allen, Mrs. Barkley, Ben Bernanke, Mary Bono Mack, Lauren Boebert, Bridgegate, Scott Brown, bruised egos, C-Span, Eric Cantor, Joe Cao, Don Cazayoux, Julia Carson, James Carville, Travis Childers, Emanuel Cleaver, Martha Coakley, Miles Coleman, compulsive list making, Jim Cooper, cranberry bread, creative ethics, Joe Crowley, Ted Cruz, Henry Cuellar, Rodney Davis, Pete Dawkins, Peter DeFazio, dummymanders, Election Twitter, Marc Elias, false suspense, food science, Louie Gohmert, Governing Magazine, Josh Harder, Andy Harris, Rush Holt, Bill Jefferson, John Katko, Dan Kildee, Steve Kornacki, Frank Lautenberg, Elaine Luria, Morgan Lutrell, Sean Patrick Maloney, map recipients, Terry McAuliffe, Kevin McCarthy, Bob McDonnell, David McKinley, Peter Meijer, Mary Miller, minimum split districting, Alex Mooney, Nathaniel Moran, Joe Morelle, oddly engrossing debates, Mike Pappas, Nancy Pelosi, PoliticsNJ.com, Premier League Soccer, QVC, Raul Ruiz, Stu Rothenberg, Rutgers, Bernard Shaw, Chris Shays, Siskel & Ebert, Elissa Slotkin, Abigail Spanberger, the Squad, Starbucks, Kenneth Starr, useful stereotypes, Paul Tonko, Lauren Underwood, the University of Chicago Institute of Politics, Fred Upton, violin lessons, Wal Mart, Amy Walter, Jim Webb, West River South Dakota, David Wildstein, Judy Woodruff, John Yarmuth, Glen Youngkin, …& more!
Guest: Dave Wasserman, Senior Editor for U.S. House of Representatives at the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. In this episode, elections guru Dave Wasserman joins Nathan and Patrick to share his outlook on the 2022 midterms. Keep up to date with us on Twitter and Instagram: @TheGameOnPod
It is time to take a hard look at politics. The races, The candidates. The redistricting maps. The court battles. And all the data. Dave Wasserman, U.S. House editor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report joins Micaela Isler and Adam Belmar.This episode of the Facts About PACs Podcast is brought to you by CHAIN BRIDGE BANK.
President Biden marks the anniversary of the January 6th attack with a pointed speech about the Big Lie, Donald Trump decides to shut up and cancel his press conference, Congress debates voting rights and the Electoral Count Act, and Cook Political Report's Dave Wasserman joins to talk about how redistricting is going much better for Democrats than expected. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter's Dave Wasserman comes on the podcast to discuss redistricting, offers his outlook for the 2022 elections, and lists several lawmakers whose fortunes took the greatest hit as a result of the new Congressional lines.
The 2020 census gave Texas, Montana, Oregon, Colorado, North Carolina and Florida additional seats in the House of Representatives, while seven states lost seats. Now, one of the more acrimonious - and partisan - processes is playing out in state capitols across the country: re-drawing those congressional district lines. This week, Major walks the line with Dave Wasserman, a senior editor at The Cook Political Report, and expert on redistricting. We're at MacIntyre's Pub in DC's Woodley Park neighborhood. Join us!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
In this special episode of the Being American Podcast, Gov. Patrick sits down with renowned political analyst and election handicapper, Dave Wasserman. Wasserman is the Senior Editor for the U.S. House of Representatives at the Cook Political Report w/ Amy Walter. They discussed the outcome of the 2021 elections in Virginia and New Jersey, where the polls got it right and wrong, and the outlook for the 2022 midterms. Tune in for your election recap and analysis!
Dave Wasserman, US House editor of the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, joins Axe and Murphy to discuss the final stretch of the Virginia governor's race, the impact of Democrats' actions—or lack thereof—in Congress on the upcoming election, and the latest redistricting developments and projections for the midterms. Plus, Wasserman reveals how he came up with his iconic phrase, “I've seen enough.”
Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema are still holding Joe Biden's agenda hostage despite exclusive new polling that shows his Build Back Better plan is extremely popular in some of the most competitive House districts. Then, Dave Wasserman from the Cook Political Report talks to Dan about the new redistricting maps that have been drawn so far and what they might mean for control of Congress. For a closed-captioned version of this episode, please visit crooked.com/podsaveamerica. For a transcript of this episode, please email transcripts@crooked.com and include the name of the podcast. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Jessica Taylor is the Senate Editor for the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter and recently made history as the first woman to be a Senior Author for the Almanac of American Politics. Jessica talks her small-town Tennessee roots, her path to political journalism, her early thoughts on the 2022 Senate map, and a deep-dive into both the history of The Almanac and her ground-breaking role at that hallowed institution.IN THIS EPISODE…Jessica traces her interest in political journalism to both her mother and father…How a neighbor from Arkansas made an important impact on a 7-year old Jessica…Jessica's first job working at her local paper…Jessica's career goals take shape at Furman University…Advice Jessica gives to young aspiring journalists…Jessica's controversial tenure as editor of her college paper…Jessica's first job in DC political journalism…Jessica talks her time working with both Stu Rothenberg and Charlie Cook…Jessica shares a memorable “candidate interview” from a now high-profile elected official…Jessica explains the “race ratings” that are a big part of her job…Jessica's early take on the 2022 Senate map…Jessica talks the history of the Almanac of American Politics…A couple of Jessica's favorite details she's learned researching for The Almanac…AND…Lamar Alexander, John Armstrong, Judy Bainbridge, Michael Barone, Cheri Beasley, Ted Budd, Richard Burr, Bill Cassidy, Bill Clinton, Rich Cohen, Roy Cooper, Ted Cruz, Howard Dean, Val Demings, David Dewhurst, Doug Ducey, Jennifer Duffy, John Edwards, The Elizabethton Star, Ally Flinn, Friday Night Lights, Nathan Gonzales, Jeff Jackson, Meg Kinnard, Kristin Kobes du Mez, Charlie Mahtesian, Pat McCrory, nationaljournal.com, the New York Times, The Paladin, David Perdue, Rob Portman, Kyrsten Sinema, Grant Ujifusa, Herschel Walker, Amy Walter, Dave Wasserman, the Watergate Building, William Rehnquist, & MORE!
Chaz talks with Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report, @Redistrict on Twitter, to discuss the census data and what it means for redistricting as states prepare to draw lines in the coming weeks.
9 de julio | Nueva YorkHola, maricoper. “Ese barrio, en mi distrito”.El podcast de La Wikly también está disponible en iTunes, Spotify y iVoox.Añade el podcast a tu plataforma favorita haciendo click en el botón “Listen in podcast app” que aparece justo debajo del reproductor.Ah, y el TikTok de Anita.Apoya el proyecto periodístico independiente de La Wikly con una suscripción premium que incluye tres newsletters extra a la semana, acceso a nuestra comunidad privada de Discord y eventos exclusivos para los maricopers premium:Leer esta newsletter te llevará 12 minutos y 6 segundos.Solo quería luchar contra el malo. Bienvenido a La Wikly.Lo importante: Demócratas y republicanos se preparan para una descarnada batalla de mapas y fronteras que promete caldearse conforme se acerque el otoño. Es el conocido como proceso de redistricting.Quizá no te suene esa palabra, pero sí es probable que hayas oído hablar de algo que ocurre en el redistricting muy a menudo: el gerrymandering.Pero tanto como si conoces las palabras como si no, en esta newsletter vamos a hacer un repaso a los principales conceptos del redistricting, cómo encajan en el contexto político actual y qué cabe esperar de la conflagración partidista que veremos en los próximos meses.❓ Redistribución de distritosEl rediseño distrital o redistricting es un proceso que tiene lugar en Estados Unidos cada vez que se publica un nuevo Censo Electoral. Esto es, el recuento poblacional que se hace cada diez años.Cada estado, en función de su cantidad de habitantes, obtiene una cantidad específica de los 435 asientos que tiene la Cámara de Representantes y debe dividir su territorio en esa cantidad de distritos.Los distritos congresuales son circunscripciones territoriales que se delimitan para abarcar proporcionalmente a la misma cantidad de habitantes; los mismos que luego elegirán a su representante en la Cámara de Representantes federal.Como el factor demográfico es flexible, algunos estados ganan o pierden asientos conforme su población crece o decrece a lo largo de la década.Cuando eso pasa, corresponde rediseñar los mapas distritales.Los distritos congresuales juegan un papel importantísimo durante las elecciones presidenciales, ya que cada estado aporta al Colegio Electoral la cantidad de escaños que resulta de la suma entre representantes y senadores.California, por ejemplo, tiene 53 distritos (y congresistas), y dos senadores, con lo que aporta 55 escaños al Colegio Electoral.La actualización del censo busca reflejar los cambios demográficos para asegurar la representación proporcional, pero en el proceso de trazado de límites de los distritos muchas veces se altera para beneficiar a un partido en perjuicio del otro.Es lo que se conoce como gerrymandering, una técnica de manipulación de los límites territoriales de los distritos para alterar los resultados electorales en el mismo o marginar la representación de ciertos grupos.En este gráfico puedes ver un estado de 50 personas que vota por el partido naranja en un 60 por ciento. Si el mapa distrital se dibuja de tal forma que los naranjas son mayoría en *todos* los distritos, lograrán injustamente ganar cinco congresistas contra cero de los morados, un partido que cuenta con el 40 por ciento de voto estatal.Por eso cobra tanta relevancia conocer quiénes son los encargados de trazar los nuevos mapas distritales. Y aunque depende de la legislación de cada estado, en su mayoría es una facultad que compete a las legislaturas estatales.Los legisladores estatales se encargan de redactar y sancionar el proyecto de ley que detalla el dibujo de los límites distritales. Ese proyecto necesita la aprobación del gobernador, que en algunos estados puede vetarlo.Durante el 2020, se llevó a cabo el Censo Nacional. Es de ahí que las elecciones estatales del año pasado fueran más relevantes que de costumbre.Los ciudadanos no sólo elegían representantes locales, sino también a los encargados de aprobar los nuevos planos distritales de la próxima década.🗺 Mapas vs. democraciaLa clave. El rediseño del mapas será un factor clave para que el partido republicano pueda recuperar el control de la Cámara de Representantes en las elecciones de medio mandato de 2022, cuando los cambios ya estén vigentes.La actual ventaja de los demócratas en la Cámara de Representantes tiene un margen muy estrecho de apenas 11 escaños. Muy probablemente, los republicanos solo necesitarán recuperar seis escaños para recuperar la mayoría.Eso sin contar con que tradicionalmente el partido que gana las elecciones presidenciales suele salir mucho menos favorecido en las de medio mandato.De cara al otoño, los funcionarios estatales y legisladores de todo el país se están preparando para volver a trazar los distritos del Congreso en función de los nuevos totales de población establecidos por el Censo.Y los republicanos parten con ventaja para ganar mucho terreno con la ayuda del rediseño de distritos pues tienen el poder en 20 de los 35 estados en los que las cámaras legislativas se encargan del rediseño distrital.Los republicanos controlan las cámaras legislativas en estados bisagra como Pennsylvania (17 distritos), Michigan (13) o Wisconsin (8), aunque son estados con gobernadores demócratas que tienen poder para vetar los nuevos mapas si creen que son injustos.En cambio, estados en constante crecimiento como Georgia (14), North Carolina (14), Florida (28) y Texas (38) están a merced de que los republicanos dibujen nuevos mapas sin miedo a bloqueo demócratas.En esos estados, o bien tienen trifectas (poder en las dos cámaras y en la gubernatura) o bien una ley electoral que impide que el gobernador pueda vetar los mapas, como pasa en North Carolina.Para que te hagas una idea, los republicanos arrasaron en la ola Tea Party de las elecciones de 2010. En 2011, por tanto, controlaron el rediseño de distritos en estados como Florida, Michigan, North Carolina y Ohio. Según el Brennan Center, eso les permitió asegurar una ventaja de entre 3 y 10 congresistas a su favor en North Carolina y de entre 5 y 13 congresistas a su favor en Pennsylvania pese a que ambos son estados que suelen estar casi totalmente divididos.Los demócratas también controlan trifectas en estados donde pueden ganar algún escaño extra con el rediseño de distritos como Maryland (8), Illinois (17) y Nueva York (26). Pero en el cómputo global son los republicanos los que más pueden hacer para beneficiarse.De hecho, los demócratas llevan años atándose las manos (para bien) promoviendo la aprobación de comisiones independientes que se encarguen de dibujar los nuevos mapas.Es el caso de Michigan, Colorado o Virginia, aunque también de estados conservadores como Utah y Ohio, que han aprobado reformas sobre comisiones independientes en la última década.En el caso de Oregon, los demócratas han cedido poder de veto a los republicanos para evitar que sigan bloqueando leyes en las cámaras legislativas con tácticas dilatorias.El mapa distrital del distrito 1 de Ohio siempre me ha parecido especialmente flagrante, como bien indican las regiones de voto republicano (rojo) y demócrata (azul) de las elecciones de 2018 en las que el republicano Steve Chabot logró ganar gracias a las zonas rurales y de suburbs de los condados de Warren y Hamilton:Para más inri demócrata, el Tribunal Supremo tomó una decisión en 2013 que permitirá a multitud de estados del Sur con historial de discriminación racial aprobar leyes electorales y mapas distritales sin necesidad de contar con aprobación federal.El Supremo concluyó que ya no se daba la discriminación racial de antaño, por lo que era innecesario que los estados sureños tuvieran que pedirle a los papis de Washington D.C. si sus mapas eran racistas o no.En definitiva, que los republicanos tienen una avenida bien ancha para cambiar el panorama distrital no solo en Texas, Florida, Georgia o North Carolina, sino también en Mississippi, Alabama y South Carolina.Suficientes estados y distritos como para que un año electoral decente les dé esos seis escaños que probablemente bastarán para recuperar la Cámara de Representantes.🏙 ¿Ciudades? ¿Suburbs? CuidadoClaro que eso es en el corto plazo. Si los republicanos buscan hacer mapas excesivamente ventajosos, peligran con que las tendencias ideológicas y demográficas de la próxima década vuelvan para morderles la cola.Mira estos dos mapas de los distritos 6 y 7 de Georgia, en las zonas residenciales prósperas al norte de la ciudad de Atlanta. En 2012 (mapa de arriba), los republicanos tenían mucha ventaja en ese tipo de regiones y controlaban esos distritos. En 2020 (mapa de abajo), las candidatas demócratas ganaron sus elecciones en ambos distritos gracias al avance de su partido en los suburbs, más propensos a detestar al partido republicano de Donald Trump:El ejemplo de los suburbs de Atlanta puede trasladarse a montones de otros suburbs y ciudades a lo largo del país: Kansas City, en Missouri; Nashville, en Tennessee; Columbus, en Ohio; Des Moines, en Iowa; o el Triángulo de Investigación, en North Carolina.Si los republicanos quieren dividir por dos esas ciudades, se arriesgan a que los vendavales políticos de los próximos años les traicionen.Piensa de nuevo en el primer ejemplo de gerrymandering que te hemos puesto arriba. Si los naranjas dibujan un mapa en el que ganan los cinco distritos por +2 votos en el corto plazo, se arriesgan a perder todos esos distritos en el medio y largo plazo. En cambio, si hacen un mapa más justo en el que ganan tres distritos por +6, +6 y +2, y pierden otros por -2 y -2, al menos dos distritos quedarán siempre de su lado.El riesgo no es solo ideológico o demográfico, sino también legal. Republicanos de Pennsylvania y North Carolina ya han visto en la última década como los rediseños excesivamente partidistas de sus distritos pueden acabar siendo tumbados por los juzgados.Los demócratas tienen cofres de sobra y un increíble ejército de abogados, liderados por el ex-Fiscal General Eric Holder, para luchar hasta el final cualquier mapa demasiado injusto.Aunque bien es cierto que el actual Tribunal Supremo, de corte muy conservadora, les da protección extra a los republicanos para excederse en sus nuevos dibujos.¿Desea saber más? Este reportaje de The Wall Street Journal sobre la división de suburbs es muy interesante. El Brennan Center publicó un informe fantástico sobre el gerrymandering y los avances que se han hecho en multitud de estados. Y Ally Mutnick (Politico) y Grace Panetta (Business Insider) están siguiendo todo este proceso muy de cerca. Tampoco me perdería las actualizaciones de Dave Wasserman o las de Stephen Wolf.🎬 Una recomendaciónCon la colaboración de FilminLa sal de la tierra es un documental de 2014 codirigido por Wim Wenders y Juliano Ribeiro Salgado. Ganó el Premio Especial del Jurado en la sección Un Certain Regard del Festival de Cannes y el Premio del Público en el de San Sebastián. También estuvo nominado a Mejor Documental en los Óscar de 2015.Wenders es un realizador alemán conocido por películas de los 80 y 90 como Paris, Texas y El cielo sobre Berlín.El documental es una biografía del aclamado fotógrafo brasileño Sebastião Salgado. Es padre del codirector, Juliano, que le acompañó en varios de sus viajes por los cinco continentes tomando imágenes y que también participa con su testimonio.Los realizadores se aprovechan de los encuadres de Salgado para hacer una radiografía del impacto del hombre sobre un planeta devastado por su paso como causante de desastres naturales y penurias humanas.Wenders aparece como esporádico narrador, aunque el mayor protagonismo cae del lado de Salgado, que viaja con nosotros a través de sus retratos de hambruna, muerte y naturaleza amenazada.Y aunque Wenders y Juliano apenas hacen uso de la imagen en movimiento, las intervenciones de Salgado, la música o los efectos de sonido son muchas veces suficientes para la inmersión y para la reflexión, siendo a veces la mezcla de ambos logros un apabullante embiste emocional sobre la condición humana.Es difícil ver este documental y no terminar profundamente emocionado.La sal de la tierra está disponible en Filmin.📽 Un vídeo para ir a la CroisetteEl Festival de Cannes se celebra estos días en la Croisette de la Costa Azul francesa y la primera controversia la ha llevado un sospechoso habitual: Paul Verhoeven.El cineasta detrás de las maravillosas sátiras Starship Troopers o Total Recall y las provocadoras Instinto Básico y Elle está esta vez en el foco de la polémica por un drama de monjas lesbianas titulado Benedetta que ya domina los titulares en Cannes.La mejor película de monjas lesbianas de Cannes seguirá siendo esta.“Benedetta tiene la intención de excitar, y por tanto de satisfacer la más básica definición de pornografía, por mucho que Verhoeven, que dice tener un interés académico en la temática, rodea los momentos más estimulantes con perspectivas esclarecedoras sobre la vida religiosa en el Renacimiento”, escribe Peter Debruge en Variety.Cualquier duda residual de que el cineasta de 82 años Paul Verhoeven pueda haber perdido su apetito por la provocación es puesta sin compasión a un lado con Benedetta, una historia morbosa (aunque deslumbrantemente rodada) de éxtasis carnal y religioso en el que somos testigos, entre otras visiones, de una joven abadesa dándose placer con un consolador tallado de una estatua de la Virgen María”, escribe Lee Marshal en Screen Daily.Como dirían en Starship Troopers: “¿Desea saber más?”. Sí y muchas gracias.Benedetta compite en la sección oficial de Cannes donde en los próximos días también conoceremos las impresiones de la crítica desplazada sobre lo nuevo de Wes Anderson, que ha tenido que esperar un año de pandemia para dar a conocer su The French Dispatch.Mis más esperadas, sin embargo, son la ya muy bien recibida After Yang de Kogonada (Columbus) y Titane de Julia Ducournau (Raw).😆 Quitándole la graciaShroomjak es una versión del meme Wojak que nace del intercambio de 4chan que puedes ver encima de este párrafo. Un usuario compartió su versión de wojak, pero con un dibujo más cutre del habitual y con una cabeza en forma de hongo.La primera respuesta lee ‘kys’, o ‘kill yourself’. En español, suicídate.Ahora mismo, Shroomjak está en todas partes. Según percibo, es la respuesta a todos los demás wojaks que se han diseñado para significar algo: un mensaje político, una conjetura filosófica, una llamada de socorro existencialista.Shroomjak no es nada de eso. Solo es un tipo divertido que está ahí. Está ahí mirándote tranquilamente con su gesto sincero de felicidad, de que todo va a salir bien. Y por tanto de ahí estas otras versiones:O este otro meme de abajo que parece decir, y voy a sobreanalizar, que a los adolescentes ya les toca abandonar las tendencias depresivas de las que tanto hablan en TikTok. Es momento de abrazar la felicidad. Pero una felicidad pasota.No cabe olvidar el nihilismo generacional que define a los zoomers.Supongo que tampoco podía faltar en la fiesta el incomprendido de los incomprendidos, el Joker de Joaquin Phoenix:Y para terminar, un buen vídeos sobre anime:Hasta la semana que viene, This is a public episode. Get access to private episodes at www.lawikly.com/subscribe
30 de junio | Nueva YorkHola, maricoper. Cuba resiste.Bienvenido a La Wikly diaria, una columna de actualidad y dos titulares rápidos para pasar el resto del día bien informado. Si quieres comentar las noticias en nuestra comunidad privada de Discord, puedes entrar rellenando este formulario.Leer esta newsletter te llevará 5 minutos y 23 segundos.Yes I am. Bienvenido a La Wikly.
To contribute to Politicology, visit politicology.com/donate Get notified when Politicology+ is available: plus.politicology.com Note: The Census Bureau released their reapportionment figures after this episode was recorded. Throughout this conversation, we discuss potential and hypothetical changes, but the final numbers are now available. The reapportionment winners are: Texas (+2), Florida, Colorado, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon (+1). The losers are: California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia (-1). Dave Wasserman, House editor for Cook Political Report, NBC News contributor, and one of the nation's top election forecasters, joins Ron Steslow for part three of Politicology's Drawing Democracy series to discuss: Which states stand to gain and lose House seats and Electoral College votes How districting itself may preclude partisan proportionality and competitiveness What voters most need to pay attention to and how to be active through the process Democratization of district mapping technology Cook Political Report: https://cookpolitical.com/ Dave's Redistricting: https://davesredistricting.org/maps#home Follow Dave and Ron on Twitter here: Dave: https://twitter.com/Redistrict Ron: https://twitter.com/RonSteslow
Charlie Cook is a political icon of his generation. Charlie broke ground in the early days of the race-rating and political newsletter industry, starting the Cook Political Report from scratch in 1984 – and he and his newsletter are still going strong.Charlie talks through his fascinating career and is generous with insights as to how politics and campaigns have changed over the years – with plenty of practical tips to help anyone better understand and better navigate our political system.Podcast Website Twitter: @ProPoliticsPod Twitter: @ZacMcCrary Facebook: The Pro Politics PodcastIN THIS EPISODEThe one political book Charlie remembers being in his house as a kid…High-school Charlie helps out on an underdog Louisiana Senate race…How high school debate helped prepare Charlie for a job in elections analysis..Charlie breaks down the politics of his youth in Louisiana of the 60s and 70s…Charlie remembers his first DC job as an elevator operator in the Russell Senate office building…A young Charlie has a memorable encounter with Senator Jesse Helms…Charlie gives the history of the election newsletter industry…Charlie's background in polling and campaigns comes in handy…Charlie learns an important lesson from the infamous "bloody" IN-08 congressional race of 1984…Charlie talks about how he started his newsletter in the mid 80s…The important media break Charlie got that helped put his newsletter on the map…The dramatically different subscriber base today from how the Cook Report started…Charlie and Stu Rothenberg meet with VP Cheney before the 2006 elections…Charlies waxes poetic about the Almanac of American Politics…Which committee staffer (and future Governor) was one of Charlie's best sources of leaks…Charlie gives tips for candidates to prep for meetings with DC handicappers…Charlie's cryptic comment about a 2004 meeting with then candidate Barack Obama…The one Senate committee chair who talked through races with Charlie independent of committee staff…Charlies talks about the responsibility of knowing his analysis is responsible for impacting races…The recent race result that surprised Charlie the most…Charlie talks about “the worst thing” that can happen in his line of work…Charlie's tips for TV appearances…The highest compliment Charlie can get from a reader…Charlie's must-read political books…Charlie talks about the “lost art” of positive political ads…ALSO…Johnny Apple, The Atlantic, Alan Baron, David Broder, Ron Brownstein, Edward Brooke, Bernadette Budde, C-SPAN, CNN, Eric Cantor, Mitch Daniels, Tom Davis, Bob Dole, Jennifer Duffy, Edwin Edwards, Allen Ellender, Rahm Emanuel, Evans and Novak, Vic Fazio, Martin Frost, Cory Gardner, Newt Gingrich, Nathan Gonzales, Phil Gramm, Charles Guggenheim, Bill Hamilton, Peter Hart, Paula Hawkins, F. Edward Hebert, Jesse Helms, Hubert Humphrey, Al Hunt, Laura Ingraham, Bennett Johnston, Gillis Long, Huey Long, Dick Lugar, Sid McMath, George McGovern, Bob Michel, Otto Passman, Kevin Phillips, Roll Call, Stu Rothenberg, Tim Russert, David Sawyer, Bernard Shaw, Bob Squier, Jessica Taylor, Amy Walter, Dave Wasserman, Paul Weyrich, Judy Woodruff, and MORE…!Podcast WebsiteTwitter: @ProPoliticsPodTwitter: @ZacMcCraryFacebook: The Pro Politics Podcast
Dave Wasserman is the House Editor for The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan polling and elections forecasting group. Before joining The Cook Political Report, Dave worked as the House Editor for another widely respected polling and elections forecasting firm, Sabato’s Crystal Ball. At The Cook Political Report, Wasserman is known as one of the nation’s prominent election forecasters. He successfully forecasted the 2016 and 2018 elections, accurately suggesting that Donald Trump may win the presidency while losing the popular vote. He is actively involved in examining House races, using individual districts to key in on larger electoral trends. He collaborated with FiveThirtyEight to produce the groundbreaking “Atlas of Redistricting,” which models redistricting and gerrymandering scenarios for all fifty states. It’s a rare opportunity to have a preeminent forecaster like Dave on the show to discuss several important topics just as the elections season came to its long-awaited end. To start, we tackled the 2020 Presidential Election, trying to understand why the polls were off yet again. Dave was quite frank with us, stating that he and other elections forecasters relied too heavily on what he calls “spreadsheet crunching.” For reference, The Cook Political Report, as opposed to FiveThirtyEight and The Economist’s elections forecasting team, is a traditional elections forecaster relying on conventional wisdom. With the rise of data-driven forecasting, Dave argues that pollsters lost track of some tried-and-true political knowledge: the strength of incumbents, the ebbs and flows of political trends that caused voters who voted for Congressional Democrats to rebuke Trump in 2018 to split their tickets, and the polling blind spots for the incredible turnout from white, non-college educated voters. That is not to say data doesn’t matter at all. We also discussed the data of key demographic shifts — the Democratic Party’s inroads in key suburban areas and their bleeding from the blue-collar union areas that formed the dominant New Deal coalition for much of the 1950s and 1960s. In addition, Dave argues that because of the growth of data and accessibility to data in politics, the general public has become more attuned to processes like redistricting and voting rights issues, which may buffer the gerrymandering that will happen due to Republican control of state legislatures. However, Dave is quite pessimistic about disinformation, polarization, and their consequences on electoral politics. He’s quite bearish on Democrats’ chances to hold Congress in 2022, even though he feels Georgia and Arizona have shifted favorably for them. He worries about the consequences of the rampant disinformation on the trust in future elections, and while he sees a depolarization across race and geography in the country, he sees disinformation and irresponsible practices from Beltway media as means of worsening the divide between urban and rural America. In our interview, we give an unfiltered look at the state of electoral democracy on both the micro and macro levels with one of the nation’s premier forecasters. For more of our previous discussions on election forecasting, you may be interested in listening to the episode “Is Nate Silver Worse than Crackhead Jim? The Success and Tautology of Election Forecasting” and read our essay on Bayesian forecasting in elections.
President Biden’s campaign message of unity is being tested in Washington during his first full week in office, particularly because Republicans and Democrats don’t seem to agree on what unity means. The scars from the January 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol are still fresh, a second impeachment trial is looming in the Senate, and Republicans and Democrats are seemingly miles apart from agreeing on a new COVID-19 aid package. Meanwhile, disharmony is evident among members of the GOP as Republican Congressman Matt Gaetz flew to Wyoming to campaign against GOP Conference Chair Rep. Liz Cheney after she voted to impeach former President Trump. Peter Baker, chief White House correspondent for The New York Times, and Senator Mark Warner spoke with Amy Walter about whether or not Biden’s calls for unity will be ignored. In 2020, almost 30 states expanded access to absentee ballots and early voting to make voting easier during the pandemic. Ahead of the general election, states saw a record-breaking number of requests for mail-in-ballots. And while Republicans have historically relied on absentee ballots, former President Trump’s attacks on voting by mail meant that more Democrats took advantage of the early vote option, while many Republicans opted to vote in person on Election Day. Today, Republican state legislators in swing states like Georgia, Michigan, Texas, and Pennsylvania are pushing for new voting restrictions in the aftermath of a Biden win. Grace Panetta, senior politics reporter at Business Insider, describes the unintended consequences of restricting voting rights. Every ten years, the U.S. government conducts a census that determines how many seats each state will receive in the House of Representatives. This data is used to redraw congressional and state legislative district lines. The most recent census results have been delayed by the pandemic and a legal battle regarding whether or not undocumented immigrants would be included in the final count. Republicans and Democrats have long sought to draw districts in their favor, but tolerance for hyper-partisan gerrymandering has waned considerably over the last decade. Dave Wasserman, House editor for The Cook Political Report, describes where the latest redistricting efforts stand and which states stand to gain additional seats.
President Biden’s campaign message of unity is being tested in Washington during his first full week in office, particularly because Republicans and Democrats don’t seem to agree on what unity means. The scars from the January 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol are still fresh, a second impeachment trial is looming in the Senate, and Republicans and Democrats are seemingly miles apart from agreeing on a new COVID-19 aid package. Meanwhile, disharmony is evident among members of the GOP as Republican Congressman Matt Gaetz flew to Wyoming to campaign against GOP Conference Chair Rep. Liz Cheney after she voted to impeach former President Trump. Peter Baker, chief White House correspondent for The New York Times, and Senator Mark Warner spoke with Amy Walter about whether or not Biden’s calls for unity will be ignored. In 2020, almost 30 states expanded access to absentee ballots and early voting to make voting easier during the pandemic. Ahead of the general election, states saw a record-breaking number of requests for mail-in-ballots. And while Republicans have historically relied on absentee ballots, former President Trump’s attacks on voting by mail meant that more Democrats took advantage of the early vote option, while many Republicans opted to vote in person on Election Day. Today, Republican state legislators in swing states like Georgia, Michigan, Texas, and Pennsylvania are pushing for new voting restrictions in the aftermath of a Biden win. Grace Panetta, senior politics reporter at Business Insider, describes the unintended consequences of restricting voting rights. Every ten years, the U.S. government conducts a census that determines how many seats each state will receive in the House of Representatives. This data is used to redraw congressional and state legislative district lines. The most recent census results have been delayed by the pandemic and a legal battle regarding whether or not undocumented immigrants would be included in the final count. Republicans and Democrats have long sought to draw districts in their favor, but tolerance for hyper-partisan gerrymandering has waned considerably over the last decade. Dave Wasserman, House editor for The Cook Political Report, describes where the latest redistricting efforts stand and which states stand to gain additional seats.
President Biden’s campaign message of unity is being tested in Washington during his first full week in office, particularly because Republicans and Democrats don’t seem to agree on what unity means. The scars from the January 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol are still fresh, a second impeachment trial is looming in the Senate, and Republicans and Democrats are seemingly miles apart from agreeing on a new COVID-19 aid package. Meanwhile, disharmony is evident among members of the GOP as Republican Congressman Matt Gaetz flew to Wyoming to campaign against GOP Conference Chair Rep. Liz Cheney after she voted to impeach former President Trump. Peter Baker, chief White House correspondent for The New York Times, and Senator Mark Warner spoke with Amy Walter about whether or not Biden’s calls for unity will be ignored. In 2020, almost 30 states expanded access to absentee ballots and early voting to make voting easier during the pandemic. Ahead of the general election, states saw a record-breaking number of requests for mail-in-ballots. And while Republicans have historically relied on absentee ballots, former President Trump’s attacks on voting by mail meant that more Democrats took advantage of the early vote option, while many Republicans opted to vote in person on Election Day. Today, Republican state legislators in swing states like Georgia, Michigan, Texas, and Pennsylvania are pushing for new voting restrictions in the aftermath of a Biden win. Grace Panetta, senior politics reporter at Business Insider, describes the unintended consequences of restricting voting rights. Every ten years, the U.S. government conducts a census that determines how many seats each state will receive in the House of Representatives. This data is used to redraw congressional and state legislative district lines. The most recent census results have been delayed by the pandemic and a legal battle regarding whether or not undocumented immigrants would be included in the final count. Republicans and Democrats have long sought to draw districts in their favor, but tolerance for hyper-partisan gerrymandering has waned considerably over the last decade. Dave Wasserman, House editor for The Cook Political Report, describes where the latest redistricting efforts stand and which states stand to gain additional seats.
This week, Axe and Murphy are joined by Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report. It’s been two weeks since Election Day and the Hacks continue their postmortem with a deep dive into what happened in congressional districts across the country. They also look ahead to the Georgia special election and discuss what the 2020 race tells us about the future of both parties. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
In this episode, Katie is joined again by our most popular guest (so far) Dave Wasserman to go over the election results, what happened in Texas and Florida, what the FUCK happened with the polling, and what we can do as a party moving forward.
Welcome to Majority.FM's AM QUICKIE! Brought to you by justcoffee.coop TODAY'S HEADLINES: We’ll round up a few of the big stories today, like the Federal Court’s decision on ballots in Texas. Meanwhile, Philadelphia’s progressive District Attorney warns that quote “wannabe fascists” should stay home instead of quote “dressing up like GI joe” to intimidate voters at the polls. But a New York Times investigation shows militias in other states might get a much warmer reception. And lastly, the Supreme Court could hear a case that directly challenges Roe v Wade as early as Friday. THESE ARE THE STORIES YOU NEED TO KNOW: It’s election day. The Majority Report will be with you all day from noon until midnight today, streaming live, so make sure to hop in throughout the day with us. Here’s where things stand on the morning of. The biggest news of the past 24 hours is again on the GOP’s Texas ballot lawsuits. On Monday, a federal judge ruled against the Republican plaintiffs in their attempt to throw out over 100,000 ballots delivered by drive-through voting in the liberal Harris County. That makes the GOP oh for two on state and federal lawsuits to invalidate ballots, respectively. The plaintiffs have immediately appealed the case, but as the election gets closer it gets slightly less likely they’ll succeed. Some other notes to consider: the _Times_ reports that despite a surge in absentee ballots, the percentage of them being rejected for errors is lower than usual. Early voting numbers are also massive. We’re at almost 98 million already. Trump has spent his last days on the campaign trail rambling incoherently about the media and calling Democrats criminals. Not really his strongest stuff, but he’s playing the hits I guess. His only play has been clear for days: if he takes any kind of lead throughout the night, he’s going to try to declare victory. The big tech companies who will inevitably spread that kind of coup-content say that they’ll add some reminders at the top of their feeds that no victory is certified unless verified by election officials and major news outlets. Biden’s campaign manager, for what it’s worth, said quote “Under no scenario will Donald Trump be declared a victor on election night.” Endquote. We’ll see how that goes. FASCISTS AT THE POLLS One big storyline outside of the political horserace to keep an eye on today is the presence of militias at polling stations. In Philadelphia, progressive DA Larry Krasner has taken an extremely strong stance at keeping the right-wing stormtroopers away. He told CNN on Friday quote: "If you want to dress up like a G.I. Joe and claim you are protecting the polls when we all know what you're really doing is intimidating voters, you're getting locked up. Wannabe fascists stay home. If your idea of how to have a democratic election is to steal it, then I've got something for you. I've got a jail cell, and I've got criminal charges." But it’s pretty likely that many jurisdictions won’t be like Krasner’s. In fact, a new investigation by the New York Times shows that cops have been friendly and even openly supportive to armed right-wing groups throughout this summer’s protests. Big surprise, I know. The Times reviewed hundreds of incidents from the protests over the summer and found documented video evidence of police and various law enforcement authorities standing by while right wing groups fought with protesters, turning a blind eye to their presence, and, in some cases, directly supporting them on the streets. Most of this was pretty obvious at the time. But it’s still notable to see it all laid out for you. What this means is while some DAs or local governments might say they’re going to crack down on militias, the cops responsible for doing the actual cracking down might not be predisposed to do so. We’ll see how this story plays out over the day, and what these armed groups do after results start to come in. SUPREME COURT COULD TAKE ON ROE V WADE SAM: We’ll have much more on the election later today. For now, let’s focus on another story that might get missed. The Supreme Court, with Amy Coney Barrett newly on the bench, could see a case with big implications for Roe V Wade as early as Friday. The case, filed by the Mississippi Department of Health against the Jackson Women’s Health Organization and other abortion access groups, is a direct challenge to Roe v Wade. That decision, if you remember, specifically mandates that states can’t restrict abortion prior to fetal viability, a term that medical experts use that means about 24 weeks. Mississippi and other conservative states have been deliberately breaking this precedent in order to set up a court challenge for months, passing restrictive laws that they know will go to court. This case in particular was supposed to get considered last week, but got bumped around in the schedule and will now come up on Friday. If the Supreme Court decides to take it, we could get an extremely early test of just how far Coney Barrett is willing to go to overturn Roe v Wade. And remember, depending on what happens today, this could be in the first days of Trump’s incredibly destructive lame duck period. After the dust settles from the election, this will be one to watch. AND NOW FOR SOME QUICKER QUICKIES: In New York, Governor Andrew Cuomo is up to his old tricks: collaborating with Republicans to sabotage his own party. NY1 journalist Errol Lewis reported that Cuomo is believed to be behind a last minute effort and surge of money in order to try to stop Democrats from getting the votes they’d need to override his veto in the state legislature, just so he can make sure not too much progress happens in his firmly centrist state. Terrorist attacks struck in Vienna and Kabul, Afghanistan on Monday. Multiple gunmen in Vienna killed two and injured at least 15 in what appears to be a coordinated attack. In an unrelated incident, multiple gunmen also stormed Kabul University in Aghanistan’s capital, killing at least 19. Retailers and businesses in many major cities are boarding up windows in preparation for possible protests or violence tomorrow, which is generally not a great sign for a functioning democracy. Fences are also going up around the entire White House complex, which makes sense considering how much the protests this summer scared the big boy in the Oval Office. And finally, One polling story that sounds hopeful: Dave Wasserman, a notoriously accurate pollster who had data that suggested Clinton was in trouble in 2016, now says that Biden could be heading for a blowout in the popular vote, possibly one of the biggest upsets for a first term president since Jimmy Carter for Trump. Let’s hope that holds up. Oct 3, 2020 - AM QUICKIE HOSTS - Sam Seder & Lucie Steiner WRITER - Jack Crosbie PRODUCER - Dorsey Shaw EXECUTIVE PRODUCER - Brendan Finn
The ongoing campaign cycle was met by a number of twists that couldn’t have been predicted. A consequential presidential race, the pandemic, an economic downturn, and the killing of George Floyd by police. As the election cycle comes to an end, Heather Long, Economics Correspondent at The Washington Post, Maya King, Politics Reporter at Politico and Clare Malone, Senior Politics Writer at FiveThirtyEight analyze the last year of politics and dissect what it could mean for Tuesday’s outcome. A standard election cycle would’ve meant interacting with voters at conventions, town halls, and canvassing events. As the pandemic upended traditional forms of campaigning, we’ve spent the last few months engaging with students, teachers, small business owners, religious leaders, and individuals from across the U.S. They update us on how things have changed since we last spoke and what hopes, if any, they have riding on Election Day. The most recent national polls shows President Trump is trailing Vice President Joe Biden by almost nine points. Four years ago, pundits and politicians relied on polls that failed to account for counties that should’ve served as warning signs for Democrats. This time around there are fewer undecided and third-party voters who could swing us towards a surprise. Dave Wasserman, House Editor for The Cook Political Report, describes his reporting on key bellwether counties that could determine the outcome of the election. President Trump has spent the last few months maligning the voting process and attempting to cast doubt on the outcome of the election. He’s made a number of misleading comments regarding absentee voting and has incorrectly stated that the process of counting ballots should end on November 3rd. Grace Panetta, Senior Politics Reporter Covering Elections and Voting for Business Insider, describes what we can expect on election night and beyond.
The ongoing campaign cycle was met by a number of twists that couldn’t have been predicted. A consequential presidential race, the pandemic, an economic downturn, and the killing of George Floyd by police. As the election cycle comes to an end, Heather Long, Economics Correspondent at The Washington Post, Maya King, Politics Reporter at Politico and Clare Malone, Senior Politics Writer at FiveThirtyEight analyze the last year of politics and dissect what it could mean for Tuesday’s outcome. A standard election cycle would’ve meant interacting with voters at conventions, town halls, and canvassing events. As the pandemic upended traditional forms of campaigning, we’ve spent the last few months engaging with students, teachers, small business owners, religious leaders, and individuals from across the U.S. They update us on how things have changed since we last spoke and what hopes, if any, they have riding on Election Day. The most recent national polls shows President Trump is trailing Vice President Joe Biden by almost nine points. Four years ago, pundits and politicians relied on polls that failed to account for counties that should’ve served as warning signs for Democrats. This time around there are fewer undecided and third-party voters who could swing us towards a surprise. Dave Wasserman, House Editor for The Cook Political Report, describes his reporting on key bellwether counties that could determine the outcome of the election. President Trump has spent the last few months maligning the voting process and attempting to cast doubt on the outcome of the election. He’s made a number of misleading comments regarding absentee voting and has incorrectly stated that the process of counting ballots should end on November 3rd. Grace Panetta, Senior Politics Reporter Covering Elections and Voting for Business Insider, describes what we can expect on election night and beyond.
The ongoing campaign cycle was met by a number of twists that couldn’t have been predicted. A consequential presidential race, the pandemic, an economic downturn, and the killing of George Floyd by police. As the election cycle comes to an end, Heather Long, Economics Correspondent at The Washington Post, Maya King, Politics Reporter at Politico and Clare Malone, Senior Politics Writer at FiveThirtyEight analyze the last year of politics and dissect what it could mean for Tuesday’s outcome. A standard election cycle would’ve meant interacting with voters at conventions, town halls, and canvassing events. As the pandemic upended traditional forms of campaigning, we’ve spent the last few months engaging with students, teachers, small business owners, religious leaders, and individuals from across the U.S. They update us on how things have changed since we last spoke and what hopes, if any, they have riding on Election Day. The most recent national polls shows President Trump is trailing Vice President Joe Biden by almost nine points. Four years ago, pundits and politicians relied on polls that failed to account for counties that should’ve served as warning signs for Democrats. This time around there are fewer undecided and third-party voters who could swing us towards a surprise. Dave Wasserman, House Editor for The Cook Political Report, describes his reporting on key bellwether counties that could determine the outcome of the election. President Trump has spent the last few months maligning the voting process and attempting to cast doubt on the outcome of the election. He’s made a number of misleading comments regarding absentee voting and has incorrectly stated that the process of counting ballots should end on November 3rd. Grace Panetta, Senior Politics Reporter Covering Elections and Voting for Business Insider, describes what we can expect on election night and beyond.
Trump's voter suppression is real, as Harvey Wasserman explains. Why did Trump abandon his supporters in the cold? Nancy scorches Trump.
In Episode 3, Katie has a conversation with Cook Political Report editor Dave Wasserman to talk about Texas, her political action committee HER Time, her old district, and predictions on the World Series.
Welcome to 14th & G. With a week to go Dean is joined by Cook Political Report elections guru, Dave Wasserman, for tips on how the pros follow returns as they come in on Election Night (and beyond). Thanks for The post 14th & G: How to Watch Election Night Like a Pro with Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report appeared first on Mehlman Castagnetti Rosen & Thomas.
Oklahoma Farm & Ranch News with Ron Hays on RON (Radio Oklahoma Network)
Farm and Ranch News for Thursday, October 22, 2020 In today's farm and ranch news, Ron Hays features comments from Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political report on the uphill battle House Ag Committee Chairman Collin Peterson is facing in his reelection race in Minnesota- and he also has the Great Eats recommendation from Oklahoma Farm...
President Trump has continued to drop in the polls and he’s spending his time in states he won handily four years ago. The Sabato Crystal Ball’s Kyle Kondik and the American Enterprise Institute’s Karlyn Bowman join the Horse Race this week to tell us what it all portends. Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report also joined the podcast to run down the state of play in the U.S. House races. Source
The Last Best Hope?: Understanding America from the Outside In
This is a special episode of the podcast: a panel discussion on zoom recorded on Monday 12 October, 2020, to analyse the state of the 2020 presidential race. The participants were Thomas Edsall of the New York Times, Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report, and Samara Klar of the University of Arizona. The chair was Adam Smith of the Rothermere American Institute at Oxford.
Two months before the 2016 election, House Editor of the Cook Political Report and self-described “numbers junkie,” Dave Wasserman penned a prophetic piece for The New York Times titled “How Trump Could Win the White House While Losing the Popular Vote.” Four years later, he's putting the battleground in Battleground by taking David Plouffe & Steve Schmidt on an in-depth tour of the states, and even counties, that could decide the 2020 election. But first, our hosts talk about the plot to kidnap Governor Whitmer, President Trump's determination to mishandle the Covid crisis in his own White House and across the nation, and whether it's too late for Senate Republicans to get off the Trump train before it derails. Dave Wasserman's 2016 National Popular Vote Tracker: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/133Eb4qQmOxNvtesw2hdVns073R68EZx4SfCnP4IGQf8/htmlviewDave Wasserman's Swingometer: https://cookpolitical.com/swingometer?politicalwire Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.
1. Four years ago around this time, many (if not most) in the news media touted Hillary Clinton as a solid favorite to win...and we know how that ended. Today, several are describing Joe Biden in the same light. As I mentioned in the intro, we had Austin, Texas-based GOP strategist Matt Mackowiak on the program. He said he expects this to be a VERY, VERY close election and is convinced that whoever wins the presidency is going to win it by a narrower Electoral College margin than 2016. Do you share that view and do you think the media is making the same mistake they did four years ago by GROSSLY underestimating President Trump’s chances of winning? 2. Speaking of the Electoral College, you live out west in Colorado near another pivotal state that needs just as much attention as Florida and the four major Midwestern states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Minnesota). That state is Arizona. For well over a year, Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report has remained unwavering in his belief that Arizona is more likely to flip from Trump to Biden than Florida AND Wisconsin are. And there are more than enough reasons to take his thoughts seriously. Arizona is an increasingly diverse and metropolitan state with the kinds of voters moving TOWARD the Democrats whereas Wisconsin on the other hand is the whitest, most rural of the four Midwest battlegrounds and has the kinds of voters that are moving AWAY from the Democrats. Would you be surprised if a Biden victory consisted of all the Clinton states + MI/PA/AZ as opposed to all the Clinton states + MI/PA/WI? 3. Right now, with voting underway, the biggest priority for the Democratic party MUST be GOTV efforts. And given the pandemic, most Democrats plan on casting their ballots BEFORE November 3. According to a recent NBC News/Survey Monkey poll, 71% of Democrats intend to vote absentee whether by mail or using in-person early voting. Everybody MUST make a plan to vote, but given a weakened, hobbled postal service, many voters (especially those living in states without a universal vote-by-mail system like Colorado) may have to adjust their plans. If someone wants to receive a ballot in the mail, what is the LATEST possible date to submit a request? Several are recommending that those who receive their ballots on or after October 14 return them in person to their county election office or a ballot drop box if available. Would you recommend that as well? 4. Several top-tier Biden supporters have voiced concern in recent days, most notably, his chief rival for the 2020 Democratic nomination, Bernie Sanders. He suggested that Biden would almost certainly lose unless he stopped his centrist approach and catered more to progressive voters on economic issues. Also, some more establishment Democrats in swing states believe there is still a sizeable enthusiasm gap between the Trump base and the Democratic base and that Biden needs to do a lot more in-person campaigning to energize voters, as NYT reported. Do you think there is such a gap and if so, should Biden pivot and endorse progressive policies like the Green New Deal or Medicare For All?
Dave Wasserman, House editor for the Cook Political Report, and Abby Livingston, Washington Bureau Chief for the Texas Tribune, join Chuck. The Knight Foundation's Sam Gill and former Missouri University professor, Barbara Cochran talk about a new report on trust in the media.
Dave Wasserman, House editor for the Cook Political Report, and Abby Livingston, Washington Bureau Chief for the Texas Tribune, join Chuck. The Knight Foundation's Sam Gill and former Missouri University professor, Barbara Cochran talk about a new report on trust in the media.
Elections are getting postponed, but that doesn’t mean politics is in lockdown. This week we look at the race for control of the U.S. House with the Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman; talk about how the pandemic is affecting Trump’s re-election prospects with the Sabato Crystal Ball’s Kyle Kondik; and take another look at Wisconsin with the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel’s Craig Gilbert. Source
Episode 22: This episode we cover: Polling, Covid-19, Biden, and Trump Covid-19 in the United States Life under quarantine pt 2 The CARES Act and what it means Links: Trump Approval Rating Coronavirus polling Dave Wasserman tweet FL getting more supplies than other states Worldwide Covid-19 numbers USA numbers CARES Act overview Questions? Email us at threecoursepolitics@gmail.com. —————————————————————————————————————————————————————— Subscribe to the podcast here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/three-course-politics/id1453561370. —————————————————————————————————————————————————————— Intro and outro music by Brett Hillsberg: https://soundcloud.com/brett-hillsberg.
Dave Wasserman, House Editor for The Cook Political Report, joins Adrienne and Doug to discuss the South Carolina primary results and where all the campaigns stand heading into Super Tuesday.
The Scalpel with Dr. Keith Rose is proudly sponsored by Zbones Bone Conduction Headphones Learn more @ zbones.io https://grabien.com/file.php?id=816789 Get back to you soon, when you have more information. Sean Sebastian, a precinct secretary in story county, what can you tell us about this delay in getting any results, Sean? https://grabien.com/file.php?id=816975 TranscriptCopy SCARBOROUGH: “How can we believe them? They talked to reporters for 74 seconds.” LEMIRE: “More than that, the reporters, the media filed into Des Moines last night and sat there for hours. With no interest whatsoever, the state officials huddled upstairs and provided no updates, and only at 2:00 A.M. they offered that call which lasted not even a minute and a half. This has been shrouded in darkness throughout. There has been no upfront to say, ‘This is what went wrong. This is how we will fix it.’ We don’t even know what time today, when the results are going to be coming out. And your point can’t be underscored enough. This is the moment. This is the 2020 election. This party has built for everything to try and defeat President Trump. This is the first step. They botched it. And now, yes, we can talk about the national anthem again, we will. But you’ve handed the Republicans a cudgel here where you say not only you can’t trust this party to run a caucus, you suggest fraud, you suggest corruption, but you also suggest incompetence and that’s what they’re doing.” SCARBOROUGH: “You know, the thing is, people will be talking about the national anthem, because you can’t trust the president of the United States to show respect to the flag. I think a lot of people would find that to be a little more searing.” BRZEZINSKI: “Disturbing.” SCARBOROUGH: “And disturbing. But, Willie, think about it. You had Mayor Pete, this was going to be his moment. And we have Dave Wasserman coming up next block. It looked as the night went on like Mayor Pete may be the guy that was moving out front and he was going have the headline that he won in Iowa, which could propel him to New Hampshire and who knows, it could propel him to do well Super Tuesday. And then you have Bernie, who thought this would be his state as well. And on the other side of it, we heard a lot of negative reports about Joe Biden. We don’t know because, of course, they don’t know how to record votes and report them in Iowa, but we heard that he might be doing better in the country, in the rural districts, but let’s say he didn’t. Let’s say he got in fourth place. Or maybe even fifth place. The other candidates would say, ‘Okay, you know what? He deserves to be knocked around by that.’ Not going to get knocked around. Can’t get punched. If I’m Joe Biden, I’m going to say, ‘The whole process was rigged. These people don’t know how to run an election. So guess what? We’ll have our first election in New Hampshire next week.’” GEIST: “Yeah. Throw out the result in Iowa. We can’t trust it. We have internal polls, as Vaughan just showed us, from once campaign that shows a completely different result from the internal polls of another campaign.” SCARBOROUGH: “Yeah. We can’t trust campaign data on election night.” GEIST: “That’s not surprising. You mentioned it, though, t he state party went out of its way to say this was not the app, nothing’s wrong with the app. There are volunteers on the record inside these churches and high schools who said the app didn’t work.” BRZEZINSKI: “Oh, my God.” https://grabien.com/file.php?id=814991 Joe and Obamacare This explains a lot!!! Cut 4 https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2020/02/03/van-jones-iowa-caucus-delay-a-debacle-90-white-caucus-not-viable/ Could this be the cause. Feb 3 https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/02/03/poll-bernie-sanders-leaps-to-massive-15-point-lead-in-new-hampshire/ In Landslide Defeat, Dems Lose Race That Was Supposed To Start Turning Texas Blue https://www.westernjournal.com/landslide-defeat-dems-lose-race-supposed-start-turning-texas-blue/ https://www.facebook.com/TheTrumpRepublicans/videos/3236382303058584/ #Impeachment #DrKeith #TheScalpel #News #Politics #Future #Conservatives #Democrats #hypocrites #liberals #immigration #presidentialcandidate #brands #america #freedom #branding #progressive #truth #history #Dependence #independence #ValerieJarrett #POTUS #MAGA #Trump
Dave Wasserman is the House Editor for The Cook Political Report. He is a highly respected political analyst and is recognized as one of the nation's top election forecasters.
House Editor of the Cook Political reporter Dave Wasserman joins the show to discuss the fallout from Tuesday's consequential governor races in Mississippi and Kentucky, Democrats controlling all three branches of government in Virginia and how it all fits into the 2020 race.
The midterm elections of 2018 served as a rude awakening for Republicans who watched their majority slip away in the House. Many Americans that had supported Donald Trump in 2016 decided to support moderate Democrats. In 2019, a record number of incumbent Republican retirements poses another challenge for the GOP. Winning back the seats in districts that Trump carried in 2016 is a priority for Republicans and the Democrat-led impeachment inquiry might give them the support to do so. On the latest episode of Politics with Amy Walter, Parker Poling from the National Republican Congressional Committee and Dave Wasserman from The Cook Political Report join us to discuss the role impeachment will play in drumming up Republican candidates in 2020. Plus, Jennifer Duffy, senior editor for The Cook Political Report, provides an update on upcoming Senate races. Congresswoman Sylvia Garcia of Texas tells us what she's hearing from her constituents about the impeachment inquiry. Elena Schneider, a national politics reporter for Politico, provides an update on Mayor Pete Buttigieg's debate performance and his ability to fundraise. Finally, Politics with Amy Walter reflects on the legacy of Congressman Elijah Cummings.
A North Carolina court panel threw out the state's legislative maps as a partisan gerrymander this week. Nancy Martorano Miller and Dave Wasserman discuss the implications.
After all the drama in 2016, the Democratic National Committee has reformed the nomination process. Today on Politics with Amy Walter from The Takeaway, a look at the new rules and what impact they could have both intended and unintended. Tom Perez was elected as chairman of the DNC in 2017. Perez's mission is to insure that 2020 isn’t a repeat of 2016. That doesn’t just mean winning, it means re-instilling faith in the system for Democrats. And the DNC has done a lot of work on this front. Amy Walter talks with chairman Perez about the reforms the DNC has undertaken. Also: we look into the potential unintended consequence of the new superdelegate rule with Dave Wasserman from the Cook Political Report. Julia Azari, an associate professor of political science at Marquette University, gives us the rundown on the new and confusing debate rules. Jeff Link, a longtime Iowa Democratic strategist, explains what’s new for the first caucus state and the role that Iowa plays in the presidential nominating process. We also tackle the unwritten rules on money and fundraising with Maggie Severns of Politico and try to figure out what the role of the DNC actually is these days, and how it’s changed in the last 25 years with Jamal Simmons of HillTV. Amy's Final Take: When it comes to covering a primary, the media spends most of its time focused on candidates - their personalities, their policies, and their blunders. But, winning candidates spend a lot of their time focused on the unsexy stuff - how to leverage the rules to their advantage. For example, Barack Obama’s campaign in 2008 realized early on that the delegate rules meant that caucuses were going to win him a lot of delegates - even if they didn’t garner as much media attention as big primary states like Pennsylvania or Texas. This year, Democrats have lots of new written and unwritten rules to figure out. How to raise lots of money without looking beholden to corportists and one percenters. How to get on the debate stage - and make the most of that opportunity. And, how to convince primary voters that they won the process fair and square. As we saw in 2016, winning the primary is only one part of the challenge for the nominee. He or she has to keep the party unified and inspired all through the general election too. Read her latest Cook Political Report here.
This election day, there will be over 250 women on the ballot running for the House and Senate, and after the midterms, there's likely to be more women in office than ever before. It seems Donald Trump has awoken a female majority that is outraged by the President's words and actions. And if there is a Democratic wave, it's women who will have likely caused it. This episode, which is the fourth in a four-part series on the midterm elections, features interviews with Rep. Cheri Bustos (R-Ill.), Politico reporter Heather Caygle, Cook Political Report editor Dave Wasserman, Politico Reporter Rachael Bade, HuffPost polling editor Ariel Edwards-Levy, Rep. Dave Brat (R-Va.), and Democratic congressional candidate Abigail Spanberger. The Wave is produced by The Podglomerate. *** This show is a part of the Podglomerate network, a company that produces, distributes, and monetizes podcasts. We encourage you to visit the website and sign up for our newsletter for more information about our shows, launches, and events. For more information on how The Podglomerate treats data, please see our Privacy Policy. Since you're listening to The Wave, we'd like to suggest you also try other Podglomerate shows surrounding news, history, and politics, like What Could Go Right? and The History of Literature. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Hi House Talkers! In today’s episode we look at 3 examples of races that our former guest Dave Wasserman put together. The 3 kinds we look at are Trump surge, bellwether suburbs, and Republican open seats that Trump won. That means we talk about IA01, MI08, and FL15 in today’s episode! Tune in and don’t forget to rate and subscribe on iTunes! For our next episode, we’ll be doing a crossover with the ladies of The Pollsters, so stay tuned! Ali and Liesl
We explore how gerrymandering might limit Democratic pick ups in the House, and we discuss how Republicans targeted state legislatures in 2010 in order to draw better maps for the GOP. We attempt to answer how much of the GOP's seat advantage is geography, and how much is gerrymandering. This episode, which is the first in a four-part series on the midterm elections, features interviews with Dave Daley, Josh Huder Tyler Law, Doug Heye, Dave Wasserman, Betsy Rader, and Rep. David Joyce. The Wave is produced by The Podglomerate. *** This show is a part of the Podglomerate network, a company that produces, distributes, and monetizes podcasts. We encourage you to visit the website and sign up for our newsletter for more information about our shows, launches, and events. For more information on how The Podglomerate treats data, please see our Privacy Policy. Since you're listening to The Wave, we'd like to suggest you also try other Podglomerate shows surrounding news, history, and politics, like What Could Go Right? and The History of Literature. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Our midterm election expert, Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report, is the guest for the 98th episode. Our topics in this conversation: The current state of play for control of the House, whether either party benefitted from the primaries, whether Trump voters will turn out, if special elections are predictive and whether this is a wave election.
Hi House Talkers! In our latest episode we welcome Dave Wasserman, the House editor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, back to House Talk. Last year he gave us an overview of how the House is shaping up this year. When we interviewed Dave last week before he hit the campaign trail, we discuss whether 2018 is shaping up to be a wave. Dave thinks it is, but Liesl isn’t quite there. Is 2018 shaping up to be 2010 in reverse? What differentiates some suburban House Republicans who Dave thinks are safer from those he puts in tossup categories? Listen on to find out more! Thanks for listening and remember to subscribe on iTunes! Ali and Liesl
Dave Wasserman, House Editor for the Cook Political Report, joins Chuck Todd to handicap the biggest House races in the 2018 midterm, and to discuss the future of district reapportionment.
Dave Wasserman, House Editor for the Cook Political Report, joins Chuck Todd to handicap the biggest House races in the 2018 midterm, and to discuss the future of district reapportionment.
Hi House Talkers! Our guest this week is one of the true House race experts in the country -- and it all began when he was just 11 years old in New Jersey! Dave Wasserman, the House editor of the Cook Political Report, joins us this week to talk about the 2018 landscape. Dave has a distinguished record of knowing what's happening in House races: in 2006, he correctly predicted that Democrats would pick up 29 seats in 2006. We get Dave's expert take on how 2018 is shaping up, and how it is (and isn't) like the most recent midterm wave elections 2010 (Republicans gained 63 seats) and 2006 (Democrats ended up picking 30 seats -- 29 on Election Day and one more a few weeks later).
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