Podcasts about jonathan ferrell

Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab Chief Investment Strategist, says the status of the economy doesn't justify the Fed cutting rates. Amanda Lynam, BlackRock Head of Macro Credit Research, claims banks will remain at the center of lending, but that private credit can now compete in ways it previously couldn't. Libby Cantrill, PIMCO Director of Public Policy, previews the fourth GOP presidential debate. Elliot Ackerman, US Marine Corps Veteran & Former White House Fellow, breaks down the latest on the Israel-Hamas war. David Rubenstein, Carlyle Group Co-Founder, previews a brand-new episode of Bloomberg's "The David Rubenstein Show: Peer to Peer Conversations" featuring Pershing Square CEO Bill Ackman. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance    Full transcript: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Lisa abrahmoids along with Tom Keen and Jonathan Ferrell. Join us each day for insight from the best in economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. I've been looking forward to this conversation. Liz An Son is the chief Investments trying to just a chold swap joins us right now. Lizan, I've been looking forward to it because we're not going to talk about self landing, hard landing, no landing, none of that. We're going to talk about what you and a team have been focused on now for a while, and that's rolling recessions. That is a framework, Lizen. Why is that so important for you? That nuance? Well, first of all, this is a unique cycle. That's the ultimate understatement. I think taking a nuanced approach is important, and we've been using that term for quite some time. I think the only other person that I know that's been using as long as we have is Ed yard Denny, and not that we want to rehash the last three and a half years, but if you think about the stimulus fuel demand surge coming out of the worst part of the pandemic, all of that demand and money associated with it was funneled into the good side of the economy because we had no access to services. That was where the inflation problem first began on the good side of the economy, exacerbated by the supply chain disruptions. But fast forward to the more recent period, we've gone into hard landing recessions for housing, manufacturing, a lot of housing related, many of the consumer product areas that were big beneficiaries of the lockdown, and we've gone from inflation to disinflation to deflation in many of the goods categories. We've just had the later offsetting strength on the services side. Same thing as rolled through in terms of inflation. So to me, best case scenario is not really soft landing that Schuberti sailed for many important segments of the economy. It's a continued roll through where if in when services in the labor market get hit, you have found stability and maybe even some improvement in those areas that have already taken their hit. Lezan, love your nuance. Let's build on that. Where are you seeing opportunities that might have hit bottom that you want to be investing in now, In particular sectors that you think already have rolled through, they're hard landing and are now buys. I still think that investors are better off taking a factor based approach as opposed to a monolithic sector based approach, But we have made some adjustments in terms of the foot factors that we're focused on. As you know we've talked about it on this program. We have been emphasizing stay up in quality with factors like interest coverage and strong return on equity and strong balance sheet, but also growthy factors like positive earnings, revisions and surprises. But I think you want to now add kind of evaluation kicker into the mix because this year was characterized by all multiple expansion, no earnings growth. We see in the last month that there is money itching to move out of the Magnificent seven to find opportunities down the cap spectrum. And you have seen some lower quality characteristics to of what has rallied. I think you want to fade that and continue to lean into quality. But you can find it across the spectrum of sectors and also outside that group of just the Magnificent seven. So you said something Lezen talking about how people are itching to take the money that they've put into the Magnificent seven and put it to work elsewhere that might be at a lower valuation. How big is that wave of people is to get out of the Magnificent seven. Is this something that could cause an underperformance or is it just simply there's just been so much money people are looking for other ideas well. So far, so good in terms of the rotational nature of this easing of some of the excesses, You've seen some pullback in the Magnificent seven. The rest of two thousand SMP equal weight is outperforming the SMP over the past month or so. It's happened in kind of a stealth way. That's obviously the best way to go through a corrective phase of excesses versus the bottom falling out all at once. What concerns me, particularly once we get past the year end seasonality, is that there is an incredible amount of overlap, especially in the large institutional world and the hedge fund world, in terms of ownership of not just the magnificent seven but up the cap spectrum, and that you know, if we get some sort of catalyst and it unleashes more frenzy around selling, I think maybe the hit would have to be larger, but I do think absent that we could continue to see a broadening out via rotation again as opposed to some significant crack occurring in the market. Lasan, can you help us gauge sentiment? Just sort of a bit wittold, least from myself repeatedly that the money money market funds is really really sticky. As you look across clients, to the people you speak to daily, have they been moving into equities over the last month? What was that move in November? So you've seen some move in equities, But it's actually, interestingly within the US equity market been toward areas like real estate utilities, and I think that is in keeping with expectations of sooner rather than later fed cuts. I'm skeptical about that, but that's where the money has gone. But sentiment is really interesting because attitudinal sentiment measures have gone off the charts of bullishness and very little bearishness. Yet even the AAII survey that we get those attitudinal bullish bearish readings, the equity exposure of that same cohort of investors has actually been coming down. On the other hand, active institutional managers have actually been significantly increasing exposure. So much like cross currents in the economy, there's even a lot of cross currents in terms of sentiment data, and it's really a mixed picture, and sentiment is hard to It's always hard to use as some market timing tool, even at extremes, but it's particularly murky in this environment right now. Lizen, just a put a bow on it. You did just mentioned that that you're skeptical about right cuts. Can you just explain that a little bit more, Well, the inflation is still above the FEDS target, the labor market is hanging in there, the economy is hanging in there. How that justifies a pivot from the most aggressive tightening cycle to easing as soon as the first quarter of next year. I don't get it. It's possible to find to be easy, but probably because there's more economic dislocation between now and then. In addition, you had the Fed and Powell specifically pointing to the bond market doing a lot of the tightening for the FED when you were in the surge and yields up to five percent. To me, what would be interesting to hear is if they start to say, well, the loosening, which is a record one month loosening in financial conditions in November, maybe that does some of the loosening for the FED. And it wouldn't surprise me if Powell has to yet again reinforce the notion that they're not at this point considering rate cuts. That's the conversation for a week today. Listen. Thank you Lizanne Sunders, a child swab one of the very best joining us at Amandelinum, head of macro credit research at Black Crock Andmanic good morning, good morning, Thank you both for having me. How much money is shift into private markets. So our forecast calls for that asset class to grow from one point six trillion globally to three and a half trillion by the end of twenty twenty eight. So that implies a pretty significant continued growth pattern through the next five years. There are really four drivers behind that. The increase in the addressable market is one of them, but it's really investors looking for diversification, borrowers looking for certainty of execution, structural shifts in the public markets which are now serving larger and larger borrowers, so that renders small middle market debt deals ill liquid. And then fourth is the opportunity for banks to partner with non banks. And also just given the well telegraphed contraction in bank lending and tightening of bank lending standards to really fuel that growth. And so that's our forecast. Was that a really nice way of saying D banking that basically private credit is stealing banks lunch. I watched all of your great coverage yesterday, and I did see the D Banking dialogue. I actually think I agree with the comments that banks will remain at the center of the lending universe. That said, I think the important takeaway is that as private credit has become sizeable and scalable in its own right, it can now compete against other parts of the market where it wasn't historically. And so what we've actually seen are some companies with demonstrated access to the public markets choosing to refinance in the private markets. I think there's an opportunity for banks to partner with non banks in terms of in an environment where capital and liquidity rules may change, to partner and maybe move some of that lending into other parts of the non bank system. Doesn't mean that the risk transfer is a negative. It just means that capital is being reallocated, just like it did after the financial crisis. So there is this sort of larger question when you say banks will still be the center of the lending universe, it raises this question about what that means. There'll be the center in terms of maybe organizing some of these transactions, but not necessarily the center of profits, not necessarily the center of deploying risk and then getting that outsize return for some of these private loans. Is that what we're saying that they're going to be the center of sort of some of the transactional aspects, but that private credit firms are going to really get the upside from these loans that banks used to capture. I mean, I think from the side of the banking relationship, they really have a lot of the client relationships, a lot of the underwriting expertise. But in an environment where risk weighted assets are going up, does it make sense to hold all of that capital on the bank balance sheet or is there a more capital efficient way to do it? I think that's really the shift that we're seeing now. Some of these factors have been in place for a really long time, going back to the Financial crisis. After Dodd Frank was enacted, the public syndicated leverage loan markets grew because banks didn't want to keep those loans on their balance sheet. Instead they syndicated them out to a wide range of investors. That's how the public debt markets have been growing for so long. So I think that's just it's another sort of iteration of this capital allocation that's shifting in response to the regional banking disruption in March, in response to the potential rules for Basle three endgame, and I think it's probably a longer term shift. By the way, I would say, you know, our three and a half trillion forecast, it assumes a fifteen percent compound annual growth rate. That's actually below the growth rate that we've seen over the past five years, and it's consistent with the growth rate over the past decade. So it sounds large, but it's actually a continuation of the trend that's already been in place. Let's talk about big moves out of the last month. Credit spread so much tighter on high yield. I think three sixty seven right now, I just want it from your perspective, still up in quality, and what do you make of this move? So, I mean, I think the move it's very It's consistent with this kind of year end rally that has been fueled by pretty favorable technicals. We've seen issuance pick up, but not to a significant extent that it's interfering with that tightening. From our perspective, yes, up in quality still makes a lot of sense. For this really important reason. Most of the issuance in twenty twenty three, and I'm talking about the left in market has been up in quality within that market, so double bes and high single bees. The low low end of the quality spectrum, so triple c's and low single bees, has really been untested. There's been a lot of talk about rate cuts. That's not really our base case in the first half. But even if we do get a few modest rate cuts, just to put that in perspective, the implied refinancing cost on average for triple C's is above six hundred basis points. For the distressed universe it's above fourteen hundred basis points. So this low end of the quality spectrum. Even if we get some rate relief, they're still going to be refinancing into a much higher cost of capital regime. How long can goldilocks lost goldilocks last? Then? I think it's the title of our one Q outlook was a widening divide, and I really think it speaks to the dispersion that's evident under the surface and a lot of these markets. So for goldilocks, investment grade goldilocks, you know, high quality, high yield, they're in a pretty good spot, especially if we can achieve the soft landing. If you're a triple C rated credit that has refined nancing to do and you're looking at your current coupon and then the six hundred basis points that it may cost you to refinance in today's market or more much different story. It's part of the reason why we expect defaults to continue to march higher through the first half of next year. It's not not a spike, not a significant increase. But I don't think we ask a lot have we seen the last of this transition to a higher cost of capital. I don't believe that we have with us around the table. I'm really placed society brilliant. Libby Cantroll, the managing director and head a public policy over at PIMCO. Libby, good morning. Another big debate for Republicans. Big debate? Yes, is this the big one? The difference? This is the big one? So this may be the last one. Actually, there's not another debate schedule before Iowa, when voters, of course on the Republican side, will go to the polls on January fifteenth. Viewership has declined since the first debate. That's when we saw sort of top tick of thirteen million. The last debate was around seven million, So we'll see if people are even paying attention to this. I think the real question, though John is does can Nicky Haley have another breakout moment? Does this sort of sustain the momentum that she has both in terms of the polling but very importantly in terms of the donors, And that remains an open question. I think that the other three folks on the debate stage will be sort of attacking Nicki Haley. I think Nicki Heley will be attacking President Trump, so it should be raucous as usual. But does it actually make a difference. I think that's the open question. What's the chance that you see another Biden Trump matchup. Well, so you know, what we're guiding our clients too, is one is that Biden will be the nominee. This sort of idea that there is some great cabal at the convention that will unseat him. We just do not think as founded. Senator bros from Louisiana, who had served with Joe Biden in the Senate, said, as long as President Biden is breathing, he is running. And I think that is something we should just you know, take take for what it is. You know, on the Republican side, obviously, if the primaries were held tomorrow, it looks like Trump would be the nominee. They're not going to be held tomorrow. They're held in around forty days. And what we've seen with Iowa and New Hampshire is that things can change. They haven't really changed in terms of dictating who the nominee is since two thousand and eight when Obama, who was sort of underperforming all of the polls, that really outperformed in both Iowa and New Hampshire and was able to get the momentum to the nomination. So a lot can still happen, but as of now, if you were saying, if the primaries were held tomorrow, it would be another Biden Trump rematch, and you know, ironically, I'll just say, is that seventy percent of Americans don't want that. So that's the reason why I think it got so much attention yesterday when Joe Biden said if it wasn't for Donald Trump, he wouldn't be running again. What do you make of that? Do you make that if NICKI Haley is the nominee for the Republican side, that there is a chance that Joe Biden would step down and pave the way for somebody else. So his his pressure ap really watched that back last night after those comments were made. They were made, of course in private at a fundraiser, so was maybe I think they're saying taken out of context. You know. However, you know, this is something that President Biden has been saying since he was a candidate in twenty twenty, that that's why he was running the first time, and so this is somewhat consistent with that messaging. However, if Trump does not get the nomination, I still think that President Biden is the incumbent president. He believes that he really has a record both on the economy and then foreign policy to feel confident to run on. So we are not getting sort of any indication from folks close to the Biden world that he is, that he's not running. He is running. We've been all appreciate. I think we could all benefit from a delegation oudication rules clinic from you. How have things changed for Republican primary, especially as a non Yes, a US citizen, So I appreciate you on that question. Yeah, so this is important. It's like very wants and a lot of our client's eyes understandably glazed over. But to get the nomination, it's just a delegate game. You need to get fifty percent of the delegates at stake on the Republican side and the Democratic side. The Republican side is the real story here, though, because the Trump campaign much more organized than it was in twenty sixteen. By their own emission, they have now systematically changed the way that states allocate delegate rules to benefit him as long as it's a crowded field, meaning that he They've changed the rules to what's called winner take all, So as long as President Trump is winning a plurality of the vote in many states, he will get one hundred percent of the delegates, and the punchline for all of us is that that makes it much easier for him to get the nomination much more quickly. So I would argue that by March fifth, which is Super Tuesday, we'll have had forty five percent of the delegates at stake being voted on, we likely will have a very good idea of who's going to be the nominee or whether it's going to be more of a competitive two person race. As you said, so we know there's four people on the stage. Later is on the calendar where that for needs to become one to change the outcome of this. Well, I think there are a lot of folks on both the Republican side and then also some of the Democratic side. As you've seen, there's some now Democratic donors who are you know, donating to Nicki Haley sort of interesting, unprecedented in many ways, who are trying to argue for a Chris Christy to say drop out of the race before Iowa. You know, John, I think what we've seen though before is that again so much can change. That much of this is unprecedented, particularly given what we might be facing, which is you know, two incumbent presidents effectively running against each other. So you know, I don't think there's a drop dead date, but I do think that it needs to become a two person race sort of by South Carolina. That's February twenty fourth. So I think the bottom line for kind of the markets and for investors is that the next seventy five days really matters. We will have a very good idea by sort of South Carolina by Super Tuesday, which is March fifth, whether this is going to be President Trump Biden or whether it's going to be more of a two person race between Nicky Haley and Trump. In those seventy five days, we're going to be dealing with a couple of deadlines for funding the government. Before I let you go, we keep talking about where is the leverage. The leverage is in the US government. I then you figure something out in order to keep operating. How are you advising people in the market to understand what's happening, what the likelihood of a shutdown is, what that means in terms of the growing risk frankly that it's been attributed to in markets. Yeah, So mean I think that two things. One is that this is not the dead ceiling, right. The debt ceiling was existential for the markets that has been fortunately addressed until January or February of twenty twenty five. This is really the most foundational function of Congress is just to keep the lights on. They keep kicking the can down the road, Lisa, does it really matter if they shut down the government? Probably not if it's not for a sustained period of time, But if it does go on for weeks, then we don't get some of the economic data, then it could actually start hurting the economy. But I think this is just sort of noise. But I think the punchline here from a fiscal perspective is this effectively funds of government at the same levels as last year, and what we're not We're not going to see any more physical stimulus. And I think the threshold for any sort of stimulus, even if we do go into recession. I know your previous guest was pretty sang one about the economy. I think we maybe we as as bond investors, are a little less so, but the threshold for any sort of fiscal stimus is going to be very high. So we think the government probably will be funded probably at the last moment, but again from a market's perspective, we're not sure. We're there's more noise than really anything. It's always the way, isn't it. Equities, hopes and dreams, bonds, fares and nightmassy do you know? Yeah, obviously obviously, Well yeah, thank you, thanks, good to see it. Great to catch you out let me cant with their Pimcoke. I'm pleased to say that John, I guess now is Elliot Akerman, the US Marine Corps veteran and former White House fellow. Ali wonderful to hear from you, sir. Always appreciate your perspective and your deep experience. Let's start with that experience. Can you describe for our audience the type of urban combat taking place right now, the urban commet that we're seeing in Gaza. You know, it's that happens really at a very close quarters, you know, street by street, house by house, room to room. As I think I've said on this show, eating in an urban fight is like it's like being in a knife fight in a phone booth. So it also takes away that the advantage that high tech militaries have, and I think we're seeing that play out and also oftentimes it's very very messy. And one of the greatest casualties in an urban fight is the city that the fight is taking place. And I think we're seeing that today as you know, vast parts of Gaza are are being turned to rubble and the civilians who lived there. So let's discuss that, given the type of combat that was seeing at the moment, how on earth do you prevent the tragic loss of civilian life we've seen. You know, It's extremely difficult, and that factors into the into the calculus on on both sides. A fundamental to you know, Hamas's attack on October seventh was they knew that they were going to force the Israeli's hands to fight them inside Gaza, which would lead to civilian casualties, which would lead to much more attention being placed in the Palestinian cause in the world, and also a significant international outcry to and the fighting. And so, you know, I think the one thing that we can see when we're looking at what is going on in Gaza is that, at least thus far, it would seem that it has preceded exactly according to Hamas's plan. Given that Elliott how much longer. Do you think that Israel has from a political perception standpoint as well as just their own aims before they're going to stop. You know, the aims of the Israeli government, as they've articulated, is the complete annihilation of Hamas. I think one of the things that's difficult is that's an extremely high bar to completely destroy a terrorist organization, as opposed to degrade its capabilities or make it so it's no longer a threat. So if that is their stated objective, I think they're in some ways probably setting themselves up for failure because it's difficult to see how they are going to completely destroy every single number of Hamas from the face of the earth, particularly as many of them are not in Gaza, you know. And the other issue that complicates factors that we can't forget about is there's a significant number of hostages still inside Gaza, so the Israelis can't finish this operation until those hostages have been freed. So, unfortunately, I think this is going to go on quite a bit longer, but every day that it extends, it becomes politically much more costly for the Israelis. Do you agree with Secretary of Defense to late Austin when he basically said that the fear here is that Israel setting itself up for a strategic defeat. I think that is certainly. I don't know that they are going to end up in a strategic defeat, but I think if the Israelis lose sight of the fact that war is always fought on two planes, both the tactical of the operational, what's happening on the ground, you know, how much of Gods is being taken or retaken, but also the political, how those actions are perceive and so you know, history is littered with cases of nations and armies that won the battle but lost the war. And I think the Israelis need to be very mindful that they don't place themselves in that situation. And we've been through a period of really intense diplomacy. We've seen that over the last two months, how elevated. Still, do you think the odds are they brought a conflict in the region. I think they've certainly lessened, but I think we absolutely want to keep our eye on any actions it seems that they could spread the conflict. You know, as you know, the United States, as you know, a very significant military presence there. We've surged naval assets into the Mediterranean Sea, all signaling very strongly to the Iranians not to spread this conflict or engage in those actions. But we've also seen simultaneously that the Iranians have been attacking US forces abroad, that there are many instances of provocation, and not only our leaders but also our troops on the ground had to be very very mindful that their actions could have TGIC consequences. So I don't think it does not seem as though the conflict is going to spread, but it's still on a hair trigger. This is a conversation about a direct conflict. I just wonder, from your perspective, in your opinion, Elio, whether you think we're already in a proxy war with Iran. I think we certainly are. But we've been in a proxy war with Iran for for decades now, and it is just waxed and waned. I mean, I mean, I'm a veteran of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and both those conflicts we were fighting a proxy war with Iran, and about those conflicts, you know, so the American service member I was, you know, having to dodge IEDs built by Iran and having to deal with Coudes Force paramilitaries who are operating or Iranian in those theaters. So we've been fighting that war for a long long time. But it's very important that as you know, you know, it doesn't escalate into an all out conflagration across the Middle East, particularly as we have another war going on in Ukraine. So these are you know, these are dangerous times where they I'm glad you brought that up as a former American service member, as someone who's actually served and seeing the threat, what is your sense of this increasing isolationism or the increasing fight over funding for some of these conflicts. Do you think that it's a valid one or do you think that that's really our retracement from the role that you served for. Because I think that there should always be robust debate in this country about issues of war and peace, and I think that is very very healthy. However, I also think that, you know, those debates should occur in a functional as opposed to a dysfunctional way. They should occur in a way that has a very clear eyed or it takes a very clear eyed view of the world beyond our shores and isn't naive of the place of America in the world. So, you know, I don't think it's inappropriate for members of Congress to be debating how long and how much the United States is going to spend on these wars. But I also think if there's some of idea that the US can just retreat within its borders and that's going to be the best interest of this country. I mean, you know, we've seen that, we've seen that play out before, and it doesn't play out to the best interests of the United States. You're implying, Elliott that the debate right now is not healthy. What would a healthy debate look like? And why is what we're seeing right now not healthy? So I think there's a degree of brenksmanship that's going on. And I think that braksmanship of you know, buying aid packages together the much of the dysfunction that we've seen them in Congress where we no longer where Congress no longers exists with the culture, and I'm olding to remember this culture in which most people operated under a mode of that you know, America's differences ended at our shores, and we projected ourselves abroad, we projected ourselves as a unified country. I mean, now we know that our allies, you know, have different you know, they prefer republican or a democratic administration and have policies that they set for both. So I think there's the overall fractiousness in our country is hurting the efficacy of our foreign policy. So that's what I mean, Ellie, thank you, sir Vio Clarity, Ellie Aikman. I'm the latest on the situation in the Middle East and with Ukraine and rest as well. I'm so pleased to say. Joining me right now is David Rubinstein. I want to pick up on that point that Bill was saying, which is his activism as now not in a corporate boardroom but on college campuses. And we heard this yesterday from Mark Rowan of Apollo. How much you hearing that increasingly from some of your peers. Well, there's no doubt that Bill Ackman doesn't need to be an activist in investing anymore, because, as he said in the interview, he wasn't that well known when he was an activist, and therefore he had to get attention, and doing activist kind of things got people's attention. Now he's pretty well known, so he can avoid that part of his investing process. In terms of College and Harvard, he has been very active with his letter to Clouding Gay and Mark Rowan has been very active at Penn as well, and a number of other business people have been active. There's no doubt that there's a lot of concern in the business but other communities about what's going on in college campuses. And as we all know, it's not a pleasant situation to be Jewish student in some campuses these days, or to be a Muslim student some campus has been a problem as well. So I don't think there's a perfect answer. We're not going to solve it overnight. It's going to take some time for all these colleges to kind of figure out what the right balance is. Do you get a sense that there is something specific that people are asking for that goes beyond a statement on anti Semitism or Islamophobia and goes more to the nature of conversation at certain universities. Well, at certain universities, I would say on the left, far left are far right. There's not a lot of room for people who disagree. Some campuses are far left, some are maybe more conservative, and people who disagree with the conventional or the majority view, don't get the kind of support that they might want to receive from the college presidences or universities. In some cases, Harvard is seen by people in Congress who said yesterday in the hearing that is seen as far left. Maybe it is, maybe it isn't. I was on the board of Harvard for many years, and I think Harvard tries to do the best it can. But it's a very large campus, very diverse. The president of university has done as good a job as she can in a very short period of time dealing with these issues, but nobody is going to be able to solve this problem overnight. You're also on the University of Chicago board, and full disclosure, I attended there, so if I'm biased, I just want to be completely transparent. There is this question about whether it's appropriate for a university to take a stand at all on any social issue, or just to let the individual professors and students have their own voices rather than have some sort of collective voice that you have to stay within. Do you think that that is the way to go well? With the same issue CEO's face, Should corporations be taking positions on these kind of issues. Sometimes they do, sometimes they don't. Universities are places where young people are generally allowed to grow and experience what life is going to be about when they leave campuses, and they tend to be sometimes more shrill and certain things they might be when they become an adult. I think at the Universe Chicago, we've had a long standing one hundred year policy of basically letting people say what they want, has provided that they don't do anything that harms anybody else or incites violence. But there's been a lot of free speech at univer Chicago, and I think that's a great tradition there. Do you think that going forward there's going to be any change in response to some of the pressure, Given the pressure that we have seen now, I suspect something will happen, but I don't know that Congress will do anything. I think the university boards are probably going to be more sensitive to these issues. There is going to be more security for certain students there, for sure, But I think there'll be more of a move towards a University of Chicago approach where more people are allowed to say what they think without feeling that if they say something that's unpopular. They'll be criticized or harmed physically. Just besides this particular issue with Bill Lackman, he's also been vocal about investing in treasures just to shift a little bit to the investment side. And I am curious if you're starting to hear this more that certain hedge funds that maybe are struggling to get an edge in public markets are just making bull trades on the path of interest rates. How much you're hearing that well. Bill Ackman said in the interview is that he doesn't generally doesn't make big macro bets. That's not what he generally does. He generally makes bets on companies. But in a couple of times in his history he has made macro bets and some have worked out extremely well. And he's made one not two year long ago, where he made a couple of billion dollar I mean, I guess it was a two billion dollar profit on a relatively modest investment in a relatively short period of time. That's hard to do. This time, he's made a bet, in effect, that the treasury rate will go down, or the interest rate will go down, the Fed will lower interest rates sooner than the conventional wisdom thinks, and I assume he's structured it so that if they do, he'll make a fair amount of money. And I'm assuming that right now he's pretty happy with what he's seeing because the market's coming along to his view. Conventional wisdom today is that the Fed is likely to cut interest rates sooner than maybe people thought a month ago. Right now, I think the Fed doesn't want to get into the election season, So if they're going to cut rates, they're probably not going to do it too close to the presidential election, so they probably would have to do it sooner. Meanwhile, just want to bring this to you. Just Breaking City Group is reporting some figures and what they expect, and they say that fourth quarter trading revenue is expected to drop fifteen to twenty percent compared to the third quarter, and you can see as the CFO does talk, you can see shares falling. This really does speak to this sense that there isn't going to be the same kind of opportunity to make profits for some of these firms as there has been earlier in this year. That basically this is what they're going to pitch when they CEOs go down to Washington, DC and start saying, you know, maybe we earned record profits, but we're going to lose it to people like you, David Rubens, sign at private credit and private equity. What do you make of some of these arguments. I'm not worrying too much about the large banks. They can take care of themselves. I'm sure they'll do well. Interest rates go up or down. There's no doubt when interest rates go up, they tend to make more money. Historically, if interest rates go down, they're very smart. They'll find other ways to make money. Private equity firms and private credit firms have done quite well generally over the last ten twenty years or so, and we have a lot of very smart people. We'll try to figure out how to navigate whatever interest rate environment we have. David Rubenstein, it's always a pleasure. Thank you so much for being on. Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday starting at seven am Eastern, on Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business App. You can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always on the Bloomberg terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Lisa Abramowitz, and this is BloombergSee 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Mary Barra, GM CEO, discusses the company's announcement of its biggest-ever buyback plan, and says she expects 'strong adoption' of more affordable EVs. Thierry Wizman, Macquarie Global Interest Rates & Currencies Strategist, says the biggest risk right now is another sudden shock in the oil market. Scott Nuttall, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts Co-CEO, discusses his firm's acquisition of insurer Global Atlantic. Lara Rhame, FS Investments Chief US Economist, says the state of services in the economy could threaten the Fed's 2% inflation goal. Howard Marks, Oaktree Capital Co-Chairman & Co-Founder, reflects on the legendary life and career of Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger. David Rubenstein, Carlyle Group Co-Founder, previews brand-new episodes of Bloomberg's "The David Rubenstein Show: Peer to Peer Conversations" featuring AIG CEO Peter Zaffino and Pershing Square CEO Bill Ackman. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. 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Transcript: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene, along with Jonathan Ferrell and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best an economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. John Ferrell with Mary Burrow, I want to go through some of the numbers for our audience. Divid end up thirty three percent, biggest ever buyback plan ten billion dollars, forty billion dollar name yesterday. Just some context perspective there that is massive inquiring minds. Mary will want to know why have you decided to deliver a ten billion dollar buy back shortly after you've signed a labor contract that adds nine point three billion to expenses over its term. Well, as we looked at what was happening from a labor perspective, we had built and really the labor environment going into our negotiations, we had put conservative estimates into our plan. So although it was a little higher than what we expected, we believe that we have and our guidance for next year, we've already said that we'll be able to offset that completely with the plan that we already had of a two billion dollar cost out perspective. So we did the right thing to recognize our manufacturing team members who have done a great job and continue to build vehicles safely with high quality. And we also thought that we've got to look and make sure that we're balanced across all of our stakeholders, and our owners are very important. So we think this was a very balanced response when we look at what was done from a labor perspective and what we're doing as part of our capital allocation framework for our owners. Well, let's get into that. So shareholders are super happy. The name is up by almost eleven percent so far this morning. I wonder if you aw Wiz Mary, they didn't get the forty percent they wanted. They got twenty five plus cost of living adjustments and other things as well. Is the old things of this morning not something that concerns you. When I look at it, I think it's balanced. Again, we have very well compensated and you know, when you look at the suite of benefits that our represented team members have it's a very very appropriate package and frankly leading from an industry perspective broader than just the auto industry. So I think we did the right thing to recognize and reward the hard work of our manufacturing team members across the board. But also one of the things our manufacturing team members very much value is job security. And to have job security, you have to have a strong company and you have to look at all of your stakeholders. So what we did from a share buyback perspective for our owners is I think a very balanced response. As you know, this move this morning not just about the capital return program, also about cost cuts. We know you're looking to fully offset that labor contract the additional costs from it. Have you identified where you will cut where you need to cut? Yes, a lot of this was already underway. At the beginning of this year calendar year twenty twenty three, we announced it too, billion dollar cost reduction structural cost reduction between twenty three and the end of twenty four. That's well underway. As I said, we also comprehended that we would have increases in our labor cost as we looked at what the environment was and also wanting to reward our manufacturing employees. So you know there's work going across many aspects of the business and including making our products more efficient while still having the features, the functionality and beautiful designs that our customers want. So there's been a concentrated effort at the company to lower our fixed costs while enabling wonderful products and rewarding the team that is helping us deliver them. Clearly, these are additional costs. Are they forcing a change in execution or a change in strategy? Definitely not a change in strategy. Our strategy is clear. It's really based on four pillars of executing our strong internal combustion engine program vehicles, and we see we're performing very well in the market and we see that we're below the average incentives. I think that speaks to the strength of our internal combustion engine products. From an EVY perspective, we have confidence in the portfolio we have. We're a bit disappointed this year that we were constrained by the automation to build modules. So this is not something that is fundamentally an issue with Altium. It was more manufacturing automation issue that we're working and we'll be out of it by middle of next year and making improvement every quarter from that perspective. Also software and this year. Earlier this year, Mike Abbott joined our team who brings tremendous software expertise and he's built a very strong team that we'll share more about when we get to our investor day in March of next year. And then autonomy and when you look at autonomous vehicles and the importance of this technology and the talent that we have at Cruise. We are doing an independent review from an incident perspective but also overall from a safety perspective, and that will guide our path forward there. But we have a very capable team there. So the four pillars of our strategy have not changed at all. What has changed is our tactics, and our tactics are changing because of the world is changing. We never thought that the EV adoption would necessarily be a straight line. We've seen this in other markets, we're seeing it now in the US. But I think the thing that everybody has to remember, if the growth is slowing, it is still growing. And we think as we get more of the EV products we have this year into next, we think we're going to see is strong adoption for our products, and as the charging infrastructure continues to be more robust, we think that's going to drive adoption as well as having affordable evs. And that's where when you look at the Chevrolet Equinox as well as the Blazer and the Bolt that's coming, we're going to be having products in that range of affordable vehicles. That is going to be very important from EV adoption. Two things to unpack there. One is robot taxis. The other is EV. So let's deal with robot taxis. First, your counting expenses on crews substantially, just how committed are you there? I remember only a number of years ago we were talking about bringing in fifty billion in revenue by twenty thirty, and I get it. Married We'll understand that new tech is tough to develop, its to deploy. I think we're seeing that across a range of issues. But when do you know if it's the right time just to walk away from this well, I think the first of all, when you look at the progress that the Cruise team has made over the eight last eight years when General Motors acquired crews, I think it's substantial and we've already demonstrated that the cruise vehicle can perform at a level that's safer than a human driver. Let's not forget over forty thousand people on average lose their lives in traffic accidents in the US alone, and ninety percent of them are caused by human error. What we have learned with this incident is it's got to be significantly better than a human driver to drive adoption, and we have to do a much better job of working with the regulators. That's something that GM has a long reputation of working and being transparent with regulators at the local, state, and federal level. So I think as we do that and get the results of the independent review we're doing, that will guide us on our path forward. From an AV perspective, I'm always interested in how we know when we're wrong an exit size I think everyone has to go through, including myself married. But on this topic of EV's the slow down, what's behind it and why aren't we just learning that American consumers just don't want these cars? Well, I don't think it's that American consumers just don't want these cars. I think there still is limited availability when you look at the choice that customers had today, from an internal combustion vehicle perspective, I think a lot of the evs that are out right now are more expensive. You've got to look at where the sweet spot of the market is, and when you really want to win an EV's you've got to make sure that you are meeting the customer who only owns one vehicle. That's the bulk of people who buy vehicles today, new vehicles. They only own one vehicle or if they have two in their family. They're needed every day to earning their livelihoods. So we've got to get affordable. There's got to be a robust charging infrastructure. So again, the growth hasn't gone in reverse. It's slowing. I think we never expected. We thought it would be have some bumps along the way. I think that's what we're seeing right now. But I think when we have evs that are affordable, when people realize how much fun they are to drive and the performance and they're not giving anything up, and then that all important charging infrastructure, I think you know we're going to see them start to grow at a more rapid break again. And that's something that we'll continue to watch. And that's why we've changed some of our tactics to be responsive to where the customer is. You've been super generous with your time. Marriage. Just want to fit in one further question. Right now, you're a forty three billion dollar name. It's a big move this morning by ten percent. The forward multiple we're talking about four times expected earnings a little more than that after today's move. The stock has been dead money for the best part of a decade. You've been doing this a long time. I know you're super close with investors. What is it that you think is in this plan, this strategy that you have and a strategy that you've suggested this morning hasn't changed that's going to turn this around. Well, I think demonstrating our commitment to all of our stakeholders and the I think when you look at a ten billion dollar accelerated buyback program, it should signal because it means we have confidence in the cash generation ability of this company. We have confidence in our strategy across the four pillars that I covered. Yes, we had some challenges that this year with our ultim based evs that I think gabe investors some concern, But we're demonstrating the confidence that we and the board have that we're executing the strategy, and we're going to see growth, strong cash flow and strong margins. That's what we're going to deliver. That's captured in today's move nine percent. Mary, appreciate your time ready tell you thanks for catching up with us, Mary Parda of GM too. Wiseman joins us right now. Global Efects interest rate strategist much more than that at Macquarie, with lots and lots of experience on this. I love the first sentence of your note. Don't believe the hype You've been skeptical. Are you combining and dovetailing in with your low rate call a true slowdown in the economy? Yes? Absolutely. I think the narrative these days from Wall Street that I've seen in the last few weeks is that the reason the ten year field has been coming down is because we're in a disinflationary phase here in the economy, and there's going to be more disinflation to come in the US. I agree with that we are going to see disinflation in the US. It's going to come in rants, it's going to come in those eras of the CPI that are linked to consumer discretionary spending. But let's Also keep in mind one of the reasons we're going to see this disinflation is because the consumer is slowing. And there you have the don't believe the hype story, right, I don't believe the story is about record breaking Black Thursdays, by Friday sales and Cyber Monday sales. I think what I think these sales were on the back of heavy discounting. If you look at what some of these corporate execs had said prior to the start of the holiday spending season, they talked about having to cut prices. We'll all Marty even talked about deflation. So this is this is about disinflation. But let's keep in mind where this this inflation is going to come from. It's going to come from a weakening and pricing power at the consumer product and services level. It's going to be driven by slow down in agurate demand in the US. Also about how they're pank for this stuff Binapailita. You look at some of the numbers just booming. What do you take away from that? So my takeaway is from a macroeconomic perspective, what it does is it shifts spending to the early part of the season because normally you would have to save up a few more shekels as you approach your deadline on December twenty fifth to get those purchases done with by now, pay later. You don't need to do that, so it allows you to spend earlier, especially if you don't have access to revolving credit or credit cards. So I think that's another reason why we might have seen the so called record breaking days on last Friday and Monday. But again, if that's if it's the case that spending was only pulled forward, it doesn't mean that in aggregate for the whole of the season we're going to get that much that much hype. So far, people have viewed weaker US data as a positive. It's both been for a bond rally and a stock rally, And you're saying that we could see that bond rally continue quite significantly going forward. Will there be a diversion so in terms of risk asseesis or have to be to fuel a bond rally that goes much deeper than where we are now. Absolutely, to let the bond rally extend to say where the ten yure yield gets the three percent, I do think it has to be associated with a sell off at risk assets. I don't think you know, to get that kind of forceful move early in the bond market, you need to have some sort of dislocation in risk ASTs, some sort of drop in stocks, but over time, not necessarily. I think we can see a situation where, if this inflation continues slowly, you get the bond deal going down to where it was, let's say in the spring. Three and a half percent is not inconceivable without a stock market drop as long as it happens slowly and steadily. But well, corporations adapt. If I go back to bear Stearns, where you're held court, you had an entire security analysis team looking at these slowdowns, I don't buy the gloom. And the corporations, like General Motors, will adapt. I'm not sure what they're going to adapt to. Technological progress and changes. They can adapt to. Government policies that spur more investment in electric vehicles and clean energy technologies they can adapt to. But what do you do when you have excess inventory as the auto dealers do? Now? What do you do when the banks and the finance companies are cutting off credit to auto buyers? What do you do? Then you're not in control of that situation. You're in control of what's happening on your factory floor, You're in control of promotions, and maybe the way you adapt is by cutting prices. Let's face it, that's a way of adapting to to hold on to market share in the face of excess inventories, in the face of consumers slowing their demand. So yeah, they can adapt, but it's not necessarily in a way that is going to make their stock prices shoot up. You've identified a series of places in this economy where we could see lower prices retail, Walmart, talked about the auto makers, We're talking about GM, maybe lower prices, going to see that come through the pipeline soon. What's the biggest threat that still lingers for you? The biggest threat to that view that this disinflation continue through next year, it's supply shocks. I think the lesson of twenty twenty twenty two and early twenty twenty three was that we cannot control what happens in the rest of the world, especially as it pertains to the supply of oil, the supply of natural gas. So from my perspective, if we get another shock in that market, and by the way, it doesn't have to be because of a war, although in the past two years that has been the case. It could be simply that OPEC plus decides to curtail supply and we get a brand going back up to the low nineties as a result of that. Again, it's a question of how much they curtail supply by, but that's the biggest risk right now. The good news is that gasoline prices in the US have been falling for six weeks straight, I think, and steadily. I think that's going to show up in the CPI by the time we rolled around to seeing the November numbers and the December numbers. But the real reason that the CPI is going to still see disinflation is because rents rents in the new tenant market and the new lease market are coming down. That's going to put a lot of pressu ultimately on the yellows as measures of rents of primary residences. We're going to get that disinflation over the next few months. This is exactly what nil Data of Renaisance Macro is talking about tom the disinflation that's in the pipeline for rents for used cars, which is why based on what Walla said yesterday, it's not that much of an if for the likes of Terry, for the likes of Nil Duta, which is why they think you're going to get this conversation early next year about which you said interest rates. Yeah, there's no question there's a school of thought out there that this is not if. It's just simply when in the path to it. But I would dovetail it back to the labor economy, which we've barely touched on today, and we've got claims coming up here Thursday. And then you mentioned the late jobs report for November. I believe it's December eighth. But the basic idea here, John is when does a labor economy finally go? If you get a labor economy to go, you get there instantly. Claims two O nine, keep going back to two nine claims to eighty one economy in so many different ways over the last eighteen months or so. Terry, it's going to see it, Terry wi there at Macquarie longer going far away. There was KKR nineteen seventy six with history made in a style and a method. At KKR it was original. Shanale Basset gets an update from their co CEO Shanale, Good morning, Thank you, Tom. I'm standing by with the co CEO of KKR, Scott not All, and it is a really big day for KKR because they are doing this. They're buying the rest of Global Atlantic, a big insurance company that they don't already own. That is an all cash, two point seven billion dollar deal. But you're also creating a new unit at KKR that houses a core private equity business. If you had to give the market one way to understand what you're trying to do over there, what is it? First of all, Shanali, great to be with you, Thanks for having me. Really, what we're trying to do today is lay out the big three growth engines we have as a firm. So you're right, we are buying the minority stake in Global Atlantic we don't already own. We already owned sixty three percent of the companies, so we're buying the other thirty seven percent. Global Atlantic has been a great partnership for us. This is a transaction we did in twenty twenty one. The company is more than doubled since we announced the original deal in July of twenty twenty and it's been highly recurring a lot of growth earnings for KKR, so that's part one. We are also modifying our compensation ratios so our asset management business continues to scale. Our run rate management fees have doubled over the last three years. So the second thing we're doing is reducing the compensation ratioon fees, making an offsetting increase on kerry, and that will allow us to create more fee related earnings for our shareholder. You're changing the way you pay people, in effect, not the aggregate amount of compensation, but we're providing more of the fee related earnings to our shareholders, a little bit more carry to our people. The net of that is about neutral, but it will mean more of few related earnings overall. And then the third thing we're doing to your point, and this is relatively new for us, is we're creating a new segment for the firm. So we've historically reported as asset management and insurance. We are adding a new segment called Strategic Holdings. And what we will include in there are the dividends that we're receiving and will begin to receive in greater magnitude from our core private equity portfolio, which is a portfolio of great diversified recession resistant companies that we've been building up over the last several years. KKR, Apollo, Brookfield, they're all buying insurance companies. All of you are diversifying in pretty meaningful ways if you think about it. It's made private equity, by the dollars, by the assets under management, a smaller part of all of your businesses. What does this mean for the future of private equity? Private equity is still a growth business for us. We expect to continue to grow that part of KKR for a long time, both with respect to the flagship strategies, but also we've created a number of different growth strategies. The core private equity business is part of private equity that's now a thirty billion dollar franchise for us. So this isn't about an ore. This is about an and we see an ability to grow PE and all the other parts of KKR, and we've diversified meaningfully over the course of the last ten to fifteen years. We're just continuing our way down that path. Now, what does Global Atlantic exactly do. It seems like what it's really doing is giving you a whole balance sheet to be using to compete on you've mentioned capital markets is one place there's been a lot of competition from your industry to the banks. How does this help you now compete in a bigger way? Sure, Global Atlantic, as you know, it's largely issued annuities to individuals, and so if you think about what we do at KKRE, we work for pensioners, retirement retirees all around the world now family offices and individual investors as well. Global Atlantic distributes its products to that same kind of an audience. So historically we've worked for tens of millions of retirees. We still do, but now they're just in the form of policyholders. And that's our mission at KKR is to actually do a great job for all those people that we work for. We're not confused about who our bosses are. And so to the second part of your question on capital markets, what Global Atlantic allows us to do is create more synergy. We didn't necessarily see all this three years ago when we started our way down this path, but we think there's even more we can do to unlock value between the two companies, and capital markets is just one of those examples. Capital markets means you might be appearing on more and more deals lending a balance sheet to provide capital for big buyouts and other leverage loan deals. That's right, and we're already in that business. So the way that we built our capital markets business is by partnering with a Street, So we'll be alongside of the traditional banks and investment banks as we built that business. But what Global Atlantic brings us is an ability to expand the vision for that franchise. So there's more to do across asset based finance. As an example, more, when Global Atlantic does their large institutional block transactions, we can put some of the Global Atlantic balance sheet. GA has its own sidecard third party capital funds called IVY, so some can go into those third party funds, and then we can syndicate the excess through our capital markets forranchise as well. Just like we do private equity and infrastructure transactions, it applies to insurance deals as well. Something interesting about these deals is that you already have told investors this morning that this will add twenty percent to total operating earnings. You're boosting your targets into twenty twenty six for few related earnings. What are the real financial impacts? What can stockholders feel for KKR over the next two three years, well, I think what they'll be able to see is we are going to grow all three of our recurring forms of earnings in a much more meaningful way going forward, So a few related earnings will be higher. We continue to see a lot of organic growth in our businesses. Just by changing our compensation ratios, you get accretion on few related earnings, and we think by virtue of what we're renouncing today, we can do even more. With the Global Atlantic where we invest that portfolio, it's already gone from seventy two billion of AUM when we announced the transaction to one hundred and fifty eight billion over the last few years. We think we can do even more together. But they'll also see more insurance operating earnings, which we believe are highly recurring and fast growing. And then we'll have this third element, which will be the core private equity dividends showing up in the strategic holding segment. If you put those three things together, we think that'll be seventy percent or more of our overall pre tax income is those three forms of recurring earnings, and we're going to introduce them a new metric around that called operating earnings and we'll talk about that later today with our shareholders. Scott, we do have to leave it there. Thank you for joining us on a big day over at KKR. Tom shout on the basic Thank you so much with a gentleman from KKR in the future of what they do, joining us now, Lawyer. I'm chief US economist at FS Investments. On an eight point nine percent nominal GDP America, Laurie, what's so great about your economics is you've got it from the litmus paper of the FX market. How alone is the United States with an eight point nine percent nominal GDP. When Rishie Sonak is telling Francy Qua he's worried about austerity, I think we are still the growth continued to just surprise to the upside, and to me, it's remarkable the inconsistency between talking about rake cuts to you know, this idea that we're going to need rake cuts in the near term to support the economy, or the short term idea that we've seen the labor market slow. And really we do feel like we're an economy and the data would show that we're an economy firing on all cylinders. Government, business bending, consumption the only keys that's not really adding to it as residential construction. I would say that we are the standalone leader on growth. And what's so important here, Lisa, A nominal GDP topline, that's real GDP posts inflation is there's an assumption here by the Bill Ackmans of the world economists and not that it's going to plunge down to what six percent, five percent? Even that's a boom economy. And when you say it, they're talking the inflation component. And Laura, that's what I want you to weigh in on. How much does it matter if we see a slow down do we need to slow down if we continue to see the pace of disinflation that we've seen so far this year. I think there's two pieces to that argument. To me, the real and one place from probably off consensus is I am really reticent to think that we are going to get this magical slow down in inflation back to that two percent lane that we have had. On the good side, we have a lot of indications that just from some slower demand and from some of these resolutions and inventory that we're going to see lower goods prices. But I think we are really ignoring the big elephant in the room, which is services. We still have a hot labor market by my measure, we still have wage pressure that is way higher than prior to the pandemic, and the resting heart rate of inflation is still well above two percent. And on the services side really is the problem here. So I think we need to be careful about being very complacent about inflation coming down, and that really feeds into this non recessionary rate decline Goldilocks complacency that has taken hold of equity markets at this moment. In some ways, the Fed's wall are really kind of fed into that yesterday, which is a reason why maybe he gave Steams some of these market movements. He said, there is just no reason to say you would keep rates really high and inflation is back at target, how high is the threshold then to cut rates. If we do see the disinflation in the pipeline significant, it might not be long lasting because of some of these other issues, but we do see year over year comps come in with autoprice disinflation or outright deflation with rents coming in, with the fact that goods, as Walmart said, just prices are actually going down outright. I think the FED is good at looking around the corner on especially this rent issue. There's no doubt that rent is a very lagging indicator, but it's sticky for a reason. And all of the short term indicators that you know, six months ago were really pointing to rents coming down fast have now reversed. And I think something that's very important to me is the fact that rents are far below the cost that it is to buy a home per square foot. You are costing you a lot less to rent, and landlords are rational. They're going to see this, and they are going to over the next several quarters, you know, push rents higher again. So it's something that you just can't ignore in the core, even if you get the headline hitting two percent. I get nervous when the FED tries to micro manage the inflation process, Laura, and this with your overarching philosophy of summing all this together, are we beyond the pandemic? It sure doesn't feel like it to me. It feels like the stimulus is still pop and popping, popping. But from where you sit, are we beyond COVID Not? In the data, Tom, I think we're seeing this trampoline effect and the Q three GDP numbers are great example of that, and we had a big inventory, you know, push higher. We could very well get that. Still detracting from the fourth quarter, you're still getting some of these big swings in factors that are disguising what's going on underneath with demand which is still really red hot. So this is a big to me, you know, piece that we're looking at. For twenty twenty four, we start to see some move away from reliance on savings towards income. I think the irony is it could be a period of lower growth next year, but actually better sentiment about household economics as you see income finally catch up to the prior year and a half of inflation. Okay, I'm gonna pinion down it. Give me some twenty twenty four lower outlook numbers, real GDP. What do you think? Real GDP one point four and I think the tenure stays pretty high. I'm putting it at four percent for twenty twenty four. I mean, these are Lisa, these are huge slow down numbers. And then the question comes over immediately, what does non farm payrolls do? David Kelly, a JP Morgan would say goes negative well and This is really the ultimate question, Laura, do we get that kind of slow growth but high yield along with a full, fully employed America, along with job creation that continue to chugle all. I think that we look at the recessions that we've had in the two thousands, twy tens, even the nineteen nineties, we saw very little. If you look at nineteen ninety two thousand recessions, we saw very little drop and output, but a massive decline in labor in this I think upcoming year we're going to see a slower economy, but I think that companies continue to view labor as a scarce resource. I think the true Goldilocks is not going to be defined by output. It's going to be defined by the labor market, and we are going to see the I think the unemployment rates stay quite low. Lar. Thank you. We FS investment slower rhyme this morning there were a one point four percent called slower economy year. Howard Marks, chairman of oak Tree Capital Management, and I must point out author of not one, two, but three important books on investing of What to Do and just as importantly Howard What Not to Do. Howard on Charlie Munger getting the odds on your side. How did Charlie Munger get the odds on his side? He started off with a brilliant mind and a brilliant partner. He intensively studied the financials, thinking about the long term. He never tried to guess what a company or a stock would do in the short term. And he held for many years. You know, he was a great practitioner. Sit on your hands, and he did it flawlessly in the modern day, in the modern media, I remember reading those annual reports. How are years ago there was no financial media, there was no blogging internet. The short termism we're living it now. What is the lesson of Charlie Munger's long termism? Well, if you want to hit the long ball, you have to be very patient, and you know, when the stock moves up the first twenty percent, you can't start taking profits. Charlie and Warren have held things for decades. And the other thing is they were and Charlie always talked about this, you have very few moonshots. Charlie said within the last year that most of his wealth came from four decisions. And so you know what would have happened if he would have started trimming those four decisions early he certainly would not have accomplished what he did, and I think Warren would the same thing. Maybe the number four would be a little different with Warren, but you know, you know, Warren's famous for having said, put all your eggs in one basket. And I watched the basket really closely, and I think that it wasn't one basket. But the idea of concentration and patience coupled with good decisions makes for a great success. You know, a concentration and patience don't accomplish anything if you can't make above average investment decisions. But putting it all together is the formula for success. Howard, you wrote in some of your thoughts about Charlie Mungerth that he had very definite opinions, in particular regarding the investment management industry. He viewed the industry with considerable skepticism, and while a member of it, I found myself in agreement with him more often than not. What exactly are you talking about in particular? You know, I think both Charlie and Warren felt that our industry, relatively few members of it made substantial contributions to their clients wealth. Many more members that were well paid. He was always one who questions incentives. He says, you give me incentive, an incentive, I'll tell you the behavior. And and I think that, you know, I think that Warren and Charlie, if you're their operation, they, in fact Warren's ed and quotes, not a partnership, not a corporation of partnership. And they considered there there the people they manage money for their shareholders to be their partners. And they considered themselves to be working for their partners and not themselves, and their own wealth and success was a byproduct of working of doing great work for the partners. So you know, I like to put my sameself in the same boat. Those sentiments appeal to me greatly, and I've tried to follow that. How difficult has it been to sort of to adapt the strategy to different eras When you had conversations with Charlie Munger, there are questions around tech and how that changed the investment thesis. How did they think about the changing concept of what a wonderful company looked like and what fair value was. You know, you, on the one hand, you have to evolve with the times. On the other hand, you know they never went a full bore into the tech sector. You know, their famous are having made a lot of money with Apple, but you know, most tech the way they said it, they put it on the too hard pile. And if you have if you understand that your success will come from a small number of holdings, that means you don't need twenty thirty thirtyfty sixty. You don't need to exploit all the sceptors. You just have to find a few great ones. Of course, on the other hand, you know Tom said that we're you know, we're in a new era with all the communications we have. Part of what that means is that the world is a more interconnected, intelligent place. You know, back fifty years ago we used to be able to exploit things nobody else knew. Today there's very little information that doesn't make its waste speedily around the world. Howard to help us with one final question here to the management the future management of Berkshire Hathaway. They have a from COVID buildup of cash a four hundred and twelve billion out to half a trillion dollars five hundred and twenty five trillion. You and everybody else out there is living with explosive money market fund growth. You know the story in that forward here for Berkshire, Hathaway, what's the best use of there in our mounds of cash? You know, the people who run Berkshire today and will run it tomorrow understand the limitations of size. All things being equal, size makes it harder to outperform. They have the best probability of outperforming of any company their size, but their size will matter. And you know one of my professors at University of Chicago. I asked him afterwards, how would you manage a big fund? He'd say, I would index the cord and manage the hell out of the periphery. And I would imagine that at their size, they'll have to move in the direction of something like that, although they will not give up on outperformance. Howard Marx, thank you with oak Tree Capital Management. In remembrance of Charlie. I'm so pleased that we get to speak with Tipenstein, co founder and co chair of Carlisle Group, host of Peer to Peer Conversations on Bloomberg Television, because David is somebody who talks with all the executives across Wall Street, Main Street and beyond to understand how they're dealing with some of these transformative technologies of the moment, and David, I want to start there kind of where the similarities are in how some of these executives are thinking about the developments and artificial intelligence in a generative AI. Well, everybody wants to be an expert on AI and figure out how it's going to affect their company positively or negatively, but honestly, nobody really knows for sure yet how it will work. We're really inning one of artificial intelligence in terms of how major companies are going to use it or have it used against them. So everybody's trying to hire artificial experts or get people into their firm who can help them assess whether artificial intelligence is going to be useful to them or helpful to them, And nobody really knows yet, So I can't say anybody is certain how it's going to impact their business yet. David, mister Zevino stealed Marsh mcclennan and others, and then Nannie goes to AIG where different than other executives, he has to deal with disaster. What did you learn about how he handles the unexpected? Well, insurance is about dealing with the unexpected, really, and so AIG became the largest insurance company in the world for many, many years, and as a result of that, it had enormous tentacles throughout the entire financial complex. It clearly extended itself too much, didn't anticipate problems that arose, particularly in the mortgage area, and as a result had to be bailed out by the US government to tune of about one hundred and eighty billion dollars. Now that money's been paid back with interest. But AIG is no longer the biggest insurance company in the world, and it doesn't have quite the tentacles around the world that it once did, but still a very profitable company. David and Newsmaker yesterday. This is what Rubinstein does. He's steering the thunder from journalist David Rubinstein with Bill Ackman yesterday and the track that this nation will take. What did you learn from mister Rackman, David Rwinstein. Well, Bill is a very impressive person who obviously is outspoken, has been outspoken on many issues over many years. Recently has become quite visible in what he's been saying about Harvard. But he said in the interview which will air not too long from now that he's made a new bet. He's made a number of macro bets that have turned out to be extremely positive. One of them, he made it over one hundred times his money on a bet that he made a number of years ago in the time of COVID. Now he's made a bet that interest rates will be cut sooner by the Fed than is otherwise expected. And if that bet is successful, I guess he'll make a fair amount of money. But that's the big issue that many people are grappling with. Will the Fed decide and it needs to lower interest rates before the political season starts, let's say, in the summer or the fall of next year. Dave, excuse me, go ahead, Lisa, please my fault. David, is it surprising to you that a big hedge fund is focused on making big bets on treasuries right now? Well, many hedge funds people are doing that. Honestly, he has not done the so called treasury trade that others have done, where he's buying treasuries and shorting treasury futures. He hasn't done that. This is basically a bet that the Fed will succumb to some pressure to lower interest rates before too long. Now, the conventional wisdom in Wall Street is that the Fed will lower interest rates at some point during their first or second quarter, more likely the second quarter. I think his bet is it'll probably do it sooner than the conventional wisdom. And I have said publicly before, and I still think it's the case that the Fed will get in trouble if it lowers interest rates around the political season, because the Republicans will say, well, you're helping Joe Biden by lowering interest rates if you do so over the summer or in the early fall. So the Fed is going to lower interest rates, probably to avoid political criticism. It don't have to do it sooner than later. David, you mentioned mister Ackman in Harvard in the Horror of the Eastern Mediterrane. I want to go to your Duke University where they have a bridge. Folks. There's an old bridge called the Free Expression Bridge. And to make a long story short, they had to paint over a pro Palestinian tone as well. David, I want you to talk to the great and good right now about how those of means and success should deal with their shock at our American universities. Well, the American university system is still the envy of the world, and our private universities are really the places that people from all over the world want to attend. There's been a shock that many people didn't realize how strong the anti Israel feeling has been in some campuses, and the result of that has been outraged by some alums. Some universities have handled this better than other universities. I am the chairman of the board of the University of Chicago, and we have a tradition of not issuing statements on political matters or outside matters, and we have an issue one in this case. But in many cases other universities have not had that policy, and they've got in trouble for issuing statements that don't please one side or the other. It's a difficult way to walk his fine line, and I don't know that anybody has figured it out properly or correctly. David All glorious day for Bloomberg Surveillance with Doug cass and Howard Marks with us and membrance of Charlie Munger. Give us your thoughts on the hugely successful experiment that was Berkshire Hathaway. For those who don't know. Charlie Munger was from Warren Buffett's hometown of Omaha. He moved to Los Angeles and later reconnected with Warren Buffett, who hadn't really known before, but he had worked for Warren Buffet's grandfather at one point in a store. Charlie Munger was had outspoken, very very smart, a lawyer who transitioned from being a lawyer to being an investor, and his track record early on was actually better than Warren Buffett's in some respects. They teamed up became an incredible team of people who were mostly known to the public through their annual meetings where Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger would answer questions for six hours on end. And Charlie Munger was quite well known for his I would say, dismissive ideas of some other people's thoughts about investing. He was a very fundamentalist kind of investor and he transformed Warren Buffett. Warren Buffett was taught to buy things very cheap, and buy things cheap you can always make money. It was Charlie Munger's view that you should buy good companies. Maybe you pay a reasonable price for it, but buying good companies is better than buying cheap companies which may not be that good. And Warren Buffett gives a lot of credit credit to Charlie Munger for having transformed his views on the investment world. David, thank you for joining us today with us remember, and so Charlie Munger and of course with your excellence. Look for a conversation with Peter Zefino. Peer to peer conversations hugely anticipated in the next ten days. A conversation with Bill Eckman that move I would suggest move Markets. Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday starting at seven am Easter. I'm Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always I'm the Bloomberg Terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Tom Keen, and this is BloombergSee 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Mandy Xu, CBOE Global Markets VP & Head of Derivatives Market Intelligence, advises monitoring multiple asset classes going into the year-end. Michael O'Leary, CEO of Ryanair, says the airline remains committed to Boeing despite delays in aircraft deliveries. Amanda Lynam, BlackRock Head of Macro Credit Research, says there's an increased focus on selectively from credit investors. Julie Norman, UCL Centre on US Politics Co-Director, discusses the Israel-Hamas war and Antony Blinken's visits to several leaders in the Middle East. Ashley Allen, Franklin Templeton Corporate Credit Research Analyst, discusses resilient consumer spending. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance    Full transcript: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Lisa Abramoids along with Tom Keen and Jonathan Ferrell. Join us each day for insight from the best in economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. I'm DeLine of joined us now at a macro credit research at black Line I and I don't worry. We're not going to be talking about that. I do want to talk about supply if we can start there. We've got forty eight billion dollars a three year notes this week, We've got forty billion dollars a ten year notes. We've got some thirty year bonds twenty four billion dollars worth. These are big, big numbers. That's treasury supply. What's happening with credit supply going into year rent, Good morning, Thank you both for having me so. As you know, credit supply had a bit of a flurry of activity in September. It calmed down in October. I do think with this tentative stability in the treasury market that corporates, CFOs and treasures may look to move ahead before the year end seasonal slow down. It will be an important test for the market how this treasury supply is digested. But as we know, the Treasury Secretary guided us towards the front end of the curve and not so much in duration in the refunding announcement last week. But I actually think, if nothing else, the past several months have shown corporates that this can be very episodic in terms of these windows opening, and so given that we know the maturity walls are coming up, I think for corporates it's better to issue early rather than late. We're expecting a big week in the IG market this week. I think expectations are a little lower in high yield, but I would not be surprised if we surprise to the upside in terms of those expectations, because I think it's just prudent for CFOs, which speaks to kind of the opportunism that one Sidi get desk told me about last week. He messaged me as soon as we saw this rally and he said, everyone's trying to come to market. I've gotten fifteen phone calls. Everyone's basically lined up. Is this going to be bad? With credit spreads widening in the sort of counterintuitive way because we've got more supply, I think the appetite is there, and I think we've had such light supply, especially in high yield year to date, and twenty two was a record a low level that I think the appetite for the market is there. I think where the real risk is is it that lowest quality cohort of the triple C market, that kind of lowest quality rung of high yield which are triple C issuers. There. I think we've seen some enhanced pressure where it's weak results coupled with refinancing needs have really pressured those capital structures. And even on this swift rally in high yield spreads that we've seen over the past few trading sessions, triple c's have rallied, but they've lagged on the way in. And I think it's the market telling you that there's an appetite for certain quality cohort in the credit market. Ig I think is there in most market conditions. Hig yield is a bit more tentative, but for that lowest quality rung, I think it's very case case specific and vary idiosyncratic. Are people kind of just pricing in perfection here? Well? With high old spreads below four hundred, it's hard to argue you that there's much risk premium added into the market at the moment. I think what we're seeing is a lot more focus on selectivity from our credit investors, so thinking about asset allocation between high yield and leverage loans, sector selection, issuer selection. I think where we're high old spreads are at the moment, the path of least resistance is probably a little bit wider in terms of choppiness, with some of the headline risk ahead of us. But again, as we've talked about before, where yields are, it's really difficult to see kind of highield spreads breaking out in this range of much wider from here, because when you every time, we tried to reach four forty last week and we kind of snapped back in, and so there is a bit of a tug of war between fundamentals and technicals, and even the most vulnerable fundamental pockets of the market have been the best performer, Like leverage loans. You mentioned the decision set between loans and say high yield help our audience understand what goes into making that kind of decision and whether that's changed in the last few weeks. So it has changed in the last few weeks because for a few reasons. One is, if you think we're at the end of the rate hiking cycle, if you think we've seen stability in long end rates, you might think that the bulk of the loan outperformance is behind us at this point. And indeed that yield pick up that leverage loans were offering over high old bonds has narrowed. So what we are seeing is a bit more interest, say even within capital structures, of investors saying Okay, well I'm in the loan, should I rotate into the high old bond or given the fundamental pressures of this higher for longer rate environment, that we're expecting our loans disproportionately impacted by that because they've been contending it with it for a longer time. Again, we don't view fixed rate bonds as immune from that in many instances, but I do think on the margin, given the strong performance of loans here to date, there is some refocusing on Okay, is the bulk of that loan performance behind us read some life into that just a little bit more. We sort of big equity move last week. If you're looking at a and I know it's unique and idiosyncratic, but ultimately just give us the thirty five thousand foot view. If you're looking down a capital structure right now, is the bias to be higher or lower in Actually, you know, I think the high end of the highield market has actually outperformed the low end of the IG market. So it's not as clear cut as saying be underweight high yield versus IG. There are a lot of nuances there. I do think for choice, I would prefer to be higher in quality within high yield in IG. I think moving down into that triple beat cohort is a relatively nice place to be. For the most part, the vast majority of those corporates are committed to maintaining investment grade ratings. You are picking up a bit of a spread pickup relative to the highest rate cohort. I think that's important in this current environment, especially if we don't get a severe downturn in growth. So I don't mean to be overly basic about this, but when you take a step back, I do wonder if we do get coalesce around this higher for longer kind of idea. Does it make sense that we're not going to get any kind of major default cycle, either in public credit or in private credit. If we're looking at benchmark rates that are five percentage points higher than when all of these companies were bar in bulk not so long ago, it's a great point, Lisa. So we are seeing a modest uptick in defaults. Were it just under five percent in the US when you combine high yield and leverage loans, that's well off the rock bottom levels of twenty twenty one and twenty twenty two. Do we break out to the levels that we saw in COVID eight and a half nine percent, I think, barring a severe downturn, I don't see it. Part of the reason is that corporates have entered this period in a really strong position. The other part is that the investor appetite, to your point, John, is there. And then third, I would say corporates are actually shifting to a more balance sheet friendly posture. So we haven't seen a lot of debt funded m and A, we haven't seen a lot of debt funded share buybacks. They're still investing in capex, still investing in debt repayment in terms of uses of cash. But I do think corporates do have some discipline. I think the real risk is that if there's a severe downturn in growth coupled with just a capital market's freezing such that these corporates don't have access at any price, I think it's I think it's difficult. As for the private credit point, historically we look at losses between the two markets, and private credit losses have held in better than public credit losses. Part of that is because the enhanced flexibility that those corporates have. We think that holds true. But I think the point remains, we're expecting an ongoing normalization higher and losses across all those asset classes not extremely given where we know where the maturity will is. Can you identify what would be the least optimal time to have any canoa down to and is that what's basically on the horizon now? So I think probably the biggest risk is that if corporates try and time this opportunistically, they let the year end play out, they think the environment will be better in the first half of twenty twenty four, and then we have some sort of shock, whether that's geopolitical unforeseen risk contraction. We're watching bank lending very closely. Although that has actually played out I think a bit more benign than we would have thought. That is the risk. I think that if corporates try to be almost too strategic about the timing and they cut it too close. We saw that in the financial crisis, where some corporates we're shut out. So that's why I think, if I'm a CFO or treasure, better to issue early rather than late. At a Lisa's point, maybe we get a lot more supply in the coming weeks and months based on what we've seen develop over the last few weeks. No matter, thank you always great. I'm out of line in there of black Rock. Michael I literally with this around the table to Ryan CEO. Michael, I wish people could see your face, as said Basting, wispeak it just to get some reaction. It's going to see you. Good morning, It's great to be here, John, Lisa, good talk to you again. Well, thank you, buddy. You've had earnings out this morning. We've been talking about this dividend of four hundred million euros. We've got to talk about this relationship with Boeing. I want to share a couple of quotes with you and then try and get some clarity. So you said in the last week, if anything, it's getting worse. I would have been reasonably confident up until about a month ago that we'd get fifty seven aircraft by the end of June. I'm not confident. We heard from your CFO this morning. So the worst case scenario is that we'll end up with growth of forty seven aircraft next summer instead of fifty seven. Help me understand where things are. What did you want and what do you think you're going to get? Yeah, I mean ourkis so we are contracted to deliver as fifty seven aircraft by the end of April twenty fourth, in other words, fifty seven additional aircraft for summer twenty four. At the moment that has slipped by the spirit production issues, in which it all Boy's own production issues in Seattle. I think now it looks like we'll get they'll leave us maybe ten short by about the end of June. We're hopefully we get forty five fifty aircraft by the end of June. We said the point we're not taking planes in July and August because frankly, we're too busy. But we're reasonably hopeful that we'll get forty five fifty aircraft front. They will leave us short. I think that's inevitable at this point in time, which means we'll have slightly slower growth next summer, but we'll still add forty five aircraft. It'll still be enough to enable us to grow traffic from one hundred and eighty three million passengers this year to just over two hundred million passengers. It's for a number you have in mind whereby you would have to cut capacity the next summer. There isn't. I mean, we haven't yet announced what the capacity will be next summer. As we said this morning, we have ninety percent of our summer twenty four capacity already on sale. Strongforward booking is good pricing, but we can't commit to the last ten percent until we get a better picture from Bowie. I speak weekly with Dave Calhoun. I think he's doing a good job in difficult circumstances. I have less faith in the management in Seattle, but I think you know, we're working closely with them. We have our own people in Seattle. We have our own people in spurting Wichita and anything we can do to expedite these deliveries will do because growth is so strong in Europe. What is it about the management in Seattle what they're getting wrong? I think there isn't enough focus there on a daily basis on how do we get in with these aircraft out? Everybody is kind of ringing their hands blaming Wichita. You know a lot of the issues are in Seattle as well. They need a more crisis I would like to see greater crisis management in Seattle and greater focus on quality control. You know, I don't understand how Wichita Spurt and Wichho We're able to have this succession amount of production problems if BOE's quality control was up to speed. Do you have options options in terms of what do you do if you don't want to work with Boeing anymore? I don't know. Let's say we want to work with Boeing. We're Boeing's biggest customer by a mine in Europe. We're a committed Boeing customer. Now I would buy Airbus aircraft if they were five percent cheaper per seat than Bowing. But Boeing continue to beat Airbus on pricing. The seventy three seven Max is a phenomenal aircraft, like we now this summer we've flown one hundred and twenty five of the Max eight aircraft. We're carrying four percent more pastures, we're burning sixteen percent less fuel. You know, they're transformative in terms of the engine and aircraft efficiency. We've ordered three hundred Max tens, which will allow us to carry two hundred and twenty eight passengers per fight and burn twenty percent less fuel. So they're making great aircraft. It's just they're not making them on time or delivering them in time. Is it fair to say, though, this is a relationship you're stuck with regardless of what it delivers next year. I mean yes, you know we're committed to Boeing. If you look around the world, the aircraft manufacturers, i mean Airbus are no better than Boeing at the moment. Airbus are way behind on their deliveries too. You have the and Whitney engine, which is going to be a real crisis next summer across the A three twenty fleet in Europe. You know, the part and Whitney engine is going to ground a significant number of airbus aircraft next summer. So all of the air craft manufacturers are challenged. We're a very proud Boeing customer. I think Boeing will get its act together. It's just taking a bit longer than we had originally hoped. In the meantime, how far can you jack up prices if capacity is constrained? I mean I think that the real issue for at least is not how much will we jack up prices? How much will Luftansa or France IAG or BA keep jacking of prices? And the answer is a lot. You know your control estimate this sumwhere Europe's operated about ninety four percent of pre COVID capacity, That includes US growing by twenty five percent. So take Ryan air away. Europe still at less than ninety percent of pre COVID capacity. That's not changing next year. The aircraft manufacturers are delivering aircraft late the part and whitneys will mean five ten percent of the airbus street will be grounded. And consolidation. Lufthanso will buy al Italians, somebody else will buy TAP and there'll be even less capacity on offer. Okay, so this is good news for you because you don't have to really have to try too hard to be the lowest cost aircraft while still raising prices. How much you're going to raise prices next year, we're price passive, load factor active. I think what's happening is how much if Lufthansa Air France Scalem will drive up fares I think by a double digit number next year. It will send even more people in the direction of Ryanair. People want to keep flying, Families want to go on holidays. They just don't want to pay off hands as outrageous prices. So I think fares that next year, I mean my operating assumptions fares will go by a low double digit percentage again through the summer twenty four to be the third year in a row, third summer in a row, we'll see double digit fare increases. In Europe. This is the first year in the first time that you're initiating a dividend YEP, it's a four hundred pounds dividend. It is the first time. Does this mean that you have nothing else to do with that money? Essentially? Yes, you know, I mean some of the first time we've done it. We've done special differdence in share buybacks, We've done about seven billion in share buybacks and special dividends. But you know, we're clearly generating a lot of cash at the moment. We've paid down about two billion in debt. We're down to our last two billion in bond that we'll pay that down over the next three years, and we're generating more cash that we know what to do with. We have specific requirements. Firstly was to do pay increases for our people who worked with us during COVID. Secondly was to pay down the bonds, and thirty is to fund aircraft deliveries. But we're running out of the existing order. We take the last aircraft in December twenty twenty four. The first of the Max tens doesn't rive toll January twenty seven, so we're looking into two or three years. So we have effectively very little uses for cash, and I think it's a commitment on our part. We'll return to shareholders. We won't squander it the way many other airlines do in m and A or buying hotels or whatever, or Delta or as Delta would do, giving monstrous pay increases to its pilots over the next four or five years. We need to keep our cost low keep our efficiency high and keep passing on on beatable air first to our customers. Do you think scheholders then can expect more of the same of an xt few years. I think so as long as trading continues. You know, who knows what's going to happen in Ukraine or in the Middle East. But as long as we get a reasonable wind on trading, then I think we will continue very cash generitive and we will return large amounts of cash to share. It's hard to know what is going to happen in Ukraine in the Middle East. I don't expect you to give us a projection. I do want to understand, though, Are you saying things slow down in any way, shype or form when you start to see these things escalate anything that's a no. I anyway, we saw the initial when Russia invade the Ukraine in February twenty twenty two, twenty two or three account Remember you know, there's a sudden downturn in all of our traffic into Poland, Romania those countries. It recovered after two or three weeks. We've had to suspend We're suspending all flights. We've about thirty flights a day into Tel Aviv. They've been suspended until Christmas, so we do want to see those scenarios resolve themselves. But the ultimate underlying trend across Europe we've locked up everybody for two years in COVID. They all want to go back. Traveling families want to go on holidays. We've just completed the October midterm break. We were still full, and I think what people want is to travel more. But there's only ninety percent of the pre COVID capacity. So in Europe you've constrained capacity enormous demand and that is resulting in very strong priceing, not just for right there, but for all of the airlines. Are you're noticing any trite down? I had to describe it as trite down from b to Ryan abbat United saying anything like that. Not at the moment, but you know, I think it's inevitable if the next year or two, if consumers are under pressure, I think you know, you'll see the little and all these are the supermarkets. Ikea will do very well and Rhine will do very well. So what about using some of the cash to make the experience nicer for people who might be frustrated with at least it'd be impossible to make the experience on Rhinier any nicer. You know, new aircraft on time flights, the fewest cancelations of any airline in Europe. But I don't understand why people pay such ridiculous air force for a horrendous experience on Lafanza. Who lose your bag, miss your connection? On Rhiner it's efficient, it's cheap, it's on time, and it is blow like a man four million people. Once upon a time, Did you live like I had to do on a road show a year ago. I had to fly from Frankfurt to Zurich, which is only about a one and a half hour flight, so they stung me for nine hundred euros one way in economy and I was sitting at the back, in the middle seat, in front of the toilet on an age Vice A three twenty. I mean seven hundred jews. I can fly all year round on Ryan here for seven hundred jurors. Michael, It's good to see it, Thanks John, Lisa, Thank fantastic. Got to see Michael Leary there the Ryan Air CEO. I'm at the line of joined us now at a macro credit research at a blackground and I don't worry. We're not going to be talking about that. I do want to talk about supply, if we can start there. We've got forty eight billion dollars of three year notes this week, We've got forty billion dollars a ten year notes. We've got some thirty year bonds twenty four billion dollars worth. These are big, big numbers. That's treasury supply. What's happening with credit supply going into year end? Good morning, Thank you both for having me so. As you know, credit supply had a bit of a flurry of activity in September, it calmed down in October. I do think with this tentative stability in the treasury market that corporate CFOs and treasures may look to move ahead before the year end seasonal slowed down. It will be an important test for the market how this treasury supply is digested. But as we know, the Treasury Secretary guided us towards the front end of the curve and not so much in duration in the refunding announcement last week. But I actually think, if nothing else, the past several months have shown corporates that this can be very episodic in terms of these windows opening, and so given that we know the maturity walls are coming up, I think for corporates it's better to issue early rather than late. We're expecting a big week in the IG market this week. I think expectations are a little lower in high yield, but I would not be surprised if we surprise to the upside in terms of those expectations, because I think it's just prudent for CFOs, which speaks to kind of the opportunism that one that he get Desk told me about last week. He messaged me as soon as we saw this rally and he said, everyone's trying to come to market. I've gotten fifteen phone calls. Everyone's basically lined up. Is this going to be bad with credit spreads widening in the sort of counterintuitive way because we've got more supply. Yeah, I think the appetite is there, and I think we've had such light supply as especially in high yield year to date, and twenty two was a record a low level that I think the appetite for the market is there. I think where the real risk is is it that lowest quality cohort of the triple C market, that kind of lowest quality rung of high yield, which are triple C issuers there. I think we've seen some enhanced pressure where it's weak results coupled with refinancing needs have really pressured those capital structures. And even on this swift rally in high yield spreads that we've seen over the past few trading sessions, triple c's have rallied, but they've lagged on the way in. And I think it's the market telling you that there's an appetite for certain quality cohort in the credit market. Ig I think is there in most market conditions. High yield is a bit more tentative, But for that lowest quality rung, I think it's very case case specific and very idiosyncratic. Are people kind of just pricing in perfection here? Well? With high old spreads below four hundred, it's hard to argue that there's much risk premium added into the market at the moment. I think what we're seeing is a lot more focus on selectivity from our credit investors, So thinking about acid allocation between high yield and leverage loans, sector selection, issuer selection. I think we're high old spreads are at the moment the path of least resistance is probably a little bit wider in terms of choppiness, with some of the headline risk ahead of us. But again, as we've talked about before, where yields are, it's really difficult to see kind of highield spreads breaking out in this range of much wider from here, because when you every time, we tried to reach four forty last week and we kind of snapped back in, and so there is a bit of a tug of war between fundamentals and technicals, and even the most vulnerable fundamental pockets of the market have been the best performer, Like leverage loans. You mentioned the decision set between loans and say high yield. Help our audience understand what goes into making that kind of decision and whether that's changed in the last few weeks. So it has changed in the last few weeks for a few reasons. One is, if you think we're at the end of the rate hiking cycle, if you i think we've seen stability in long end rates, you might think that the bulk of the loan outperformance is behind us at this point. And indeed, that yield pick up that leverage loans were offering over high old bonds has narrowed. So what we are seeing is a bit more interest, say, even within capital structures, of investors saying Okay, well I'm in the loan, should I rotate into the high old bond or given the fundamental pressures of this higher for longer rate environment, that we're expecting our loans disproportionately impacted by that because they've been contending it with it for a longer time. Again, we don't view fixed rate bonds as immune from that in many instances, but I do think on the margin, given the strong performance of loans here to date, there is some refocusing on okay, is the bulk of that loan performance behind us? We read some life into that just a little bit more. We sort of big equity move last week. If you're looking at AG and I know it's unique and it is syncratic, but ultimately just give us the thirty five thousand foot view. If you're looking down a capital structure right now, is the bias to be higher or lower in it? Actually? You know, I think the high end of the high old market has actually outperformed the low end of the IG market. So it's not as clear cut as saying be underweight high yield versus IG. There are a lot of nuances there. I do think for choice, I would prefer to be higher in quality within high yield in IG. I think moving down into that triple beat cohort is a relatively nice place to be. For the most part, the vast majority of those corporates are committed to maintaining investment grade ratings. You are picking up a bit of a spread pickup relative to the highest rate COHORT. I think that's important in this current environment, especially if we don't get a severe downturn in growth. So I don't mean to be overly basic about this, but when you take a step back, I do wonder if we do get coalesce around this higher for longer kind of idea, does it make sense that we're not going to get any kind of major default cycle, either in public credit or in private credit. If we're looking at benchmark rates that are five percentage points higher than when all of these companies were borrowing in bulk not so long ago, it's a great point, Lisa. So we are seeing a modest uptick in defaults were it just under five percent in the US. When you combine high yield and leverage loans that's well off the rock bottom levels of twenty twenty one and twenty twenty two. Do we break out to the levels that we saw in COVID eight and a half nine percent, I think, barring a severe downturn, I don't see it. Part of the reason is that corporates have entered this period in a really strong position. The other part is that the investor appetite, to your point, John is there. And then third, I would say corporates are actually shifting to a more balance sheet friendly posture. So we haven't seen a lot of debt funded M and A, we haven't seen a lot of debt funded share buybacks. They're still investing in capex, still investing in debt repayment in terms of uses of cash. But I do think corporates do have some discipline. I think the real risk is that if there's a severe downturn in growth coupled with just a capital market's freezing such that these corporates don't have access at any price, I think it's I think it's difficult. As for the private credit point, historically we look at losses between the two markets, and private credit losses have held in better than public credit losses. Part of that is because the enhanced flexibility that those corporates have. We think that holds true. But I think the point remains we're expecting an ongoing normalization higher and losses across all those asset classes, not extremely given where we know where the maturity will is. Can you identify what would be the least oportable time to have any economic down to and is that what's basically on the horizon now? So I think probably the biggest risk is that if corporates try and time this opportunistically, they let the year end play out, they think the environment will be better in the first half of twenty twenty four, and then we have some sort of shock, whether that's geopolitical, unforeseen risk contraction. We're watching bank lending very closely, although that has actually played out I think a bit more benign than we would have thought. That is the risk. I think that if corporates try to be almost too strategic about the timing and they cut it too close. We saw that in the financial crisis, where some corporates were shut out. So that's why I think if I'm a CFO or treasure better to is you early rather than late. At at least's point, maybe we get a lot more supply in the coming weeks and months based on what we've seen developed over the last few weeks. Matter, Thank you always great amount of line in there of black Rock joining us now is Judy Norman, the co director of the UCR Center on the US Politics. Judy, always wonderful to catch out with you. You've articulated this, the pressure to articulate and endgame given what's developed over the last couple of weeks. Do you see sense that that pressure is ramping up once again over the weekend? Well, I think it is John and very much from the US increasingly on Israel, mostly behind the closed doors, but starting a little bit more publicly as well. And this has really been an issue since you since the after October seventh, to trying to figure out what would be next for Gaza after an Israeli operation. There are many different options that are considered, but really none of them seem to be very good for either Israelis or for Palestinians. Israelis un Palestinians are not looking for a ReOC patient of Gaza. Some have floated the idea of the Palestinian authority, the West Bank governance having a role in Gaza, but they are very weak, very illegitimate, and also I think would not take on that role just yet. And the US is even exploring some options of saying having a multi national transition kind of group there, some kind of almost like a peacekeeping force. But again, all of these are very tentative options. And I think crucially right now is trying to identify what Gaza might look like after this in a way that is, you know, not just a continued downward spiral for both Gazans and Israelis. Judy. As we can all see at the moment, the administration domestically facing pressure from all corners, Judy, from your position, can you identify any kind of success this administration is having convincing the Israelis of having some kind of humanitarian pause, convincing it Israel of changing its approached somehow. Is there any kind of success you can identify? Yeah, John, So, I would say the US came out very strong and supportive Israel, and some in Israel have called this a sort of bear hog, a public embrace but also a private restraint and kind of some whispers in the ear. So this has started from the beginning, and I think most importantly Blincoln was pushing for a humanitarian pause over the weekend that does not look forthcoming at the moment. Some areas where they have had some success is starting to get a bit more aid into Gaza. There are currently about one hundred trucks now coming into the Gaza Strip per day. Before the invasion. That was about five hundred trucks a day, so still much less than is needed, but more than was coming in for several weeks. The other area that they had some temporary success was getting communications reinstated in Gaza, but I understand over the weekend there have been more blackout so that seems a bit inconsistent. So I think that pressure for humanitarian pauses will continue. For Israel, I think they see that as perhaps halting the offensive, and they're halting their overall aim of ousting Hamass. But for others that is just seen as absolutely necessary for both getting aid into the strip and getting people out, So I think Blncoln will keep focusing on that. And I would note now who suggested that if hostage isbury leased, that might open up some room for a humanitarian pause. So I think we'll see more focus there in the coming days, Julie, what I've found more interesting rather than Tony Blinken going to Israel was all of the other meetings he's had on this particular tour. Right now, he's in Anchora in Turkey. There's a question over Bill Burns and his relationship with Jordan, the head of CIA, and his tour in the region. What is our sense right now of some of the regional countries and their position, their involvement both in what's happening now negotiating with Hamas, but also some solution after this conflict is over sure. So I think there's a couple different facets to this. One is, again the short term, trying to get other Arab states to also back this idea of humanitarian pause. Most leaders are very forthright about calling for a full cease fire, so Lincoln was trying to get some space there as well as just keeping diplomatic channels open. The second was really in terms of trying to keep the conflict contained and trying to avoid flare ups in other Arab countries and in other areas, especially like Iraq, where US troops are stationed and where there are Runi and proxy groups operating, so trying to kind of quell any potential flare ups and just further dispersal of this conflict. And the third, as you mentioned Lisa, is again trying to look ahead to what that endgame might be and what the role of Arab states might be within that. Again, would Arab states be part of some kind of multinational you know, transitional authority or force or something like that. Again, right now, I think most Arab leaders are reading the room pretty clearly with their own populations, who are very sympathetic to the Palestinian cause and are not going to stick out their neck too far for what the US is pushing for. But at the same time, you know, work quite closely with the US and some of these states with Israel as well, and so needing to kind of find that middle ground. So a lot of diplomacy happening that I think will be just continuing wholeheartedly over these next couple of days. As President Biden lost the room with his own party at this point, given his approach on this conflict, I would say it's very clear that the Democrats have a lot of internal divisions over this conflict, and this isn't new to Biden. And I think he knew with an issue as difficult as Israel Palestine, you are probably never going to please everyone, especially in a party like the Democrats, which are pretty split on this issue. Now he's getting a lot of very vocal criticism from many on the left, from many progressives, and from many on the pro Palestine side. But I think he's also getting a lot of support from more traditional liberal Democrats who appreciate the solidarity that he's shown towards Israel. So in some ways, again, you're not going to please everyone. And again, right now, the US is trying to find a very difficult middle road and kind of thread this needle between supporting Israel but also trying to minimize casualties and think ahead to what might be next and what might be best for the region. It's going to be incredibly difficult for the president going to get too next year, Jurney. Just to finish, net poll from the New York Times over the weekend, big lead to for the former president Donald Trump in Arizona, Georgia, and Michigan, Nevada, and lead in Pennsylvania as well. Judy, your thoughts on that as it came out over the weekend, Yeah, this is going to be a big wake up call for Democrats and for the Biden campaign. We've been seeing these neck and neck numbers for Biden and Trump for quite a while, but to really drill down to the six swing states and see that five out of the six Trump is leading with less than a year until the elections is quite notable. And again, this is a little bit different than past elections because both of these both of these men are known quantities everyone and someone like Trump, everything is out there already, So I don't see a lot of this necessarily changing. Obviously, polls a year out, our year out. But I think for Democrats who thought, you know, Trump was going to be an easy target or something like that, it's clear that Biden has a lot of work to do and that's you know, it's going to be challenging for him to keep his coalition together. So I think we'll see some different strategies emerging pretty soon. Hiy, Judy, Thank you, Judy Norman of the US Sales Center on US Politics. Thank you joining us now. I'm so glad to say. Is Ashley Allen, corporate research analyst at Franklin Templeton YU counuigh in maybe I'm Birkenstack, But more importantly, thank you so much for being here, because to me, the big question really is how resilient is a consumer? After people have been saying that they're running out of their savings month after year after month, have we reached a point where you actually are seeing evidence of that? Maybe? And I think it's been maybe for a few months, to be fair, but I think we find ourselves in a really interesting situation right now, especially following three Q earnings. We just heard from a handful of staples companies from restaurants. Consumers are still spending, especially on some things that they'll want to indulge in, whether it's coffee, sweet treats in the grocery store, so that the stata is backward looking, so we have to keep that in mind. But up until this point, again, resilience has been the word that economists are said over and over. They're still showing up to spend on the things that make them feel good. How much in some of the earning calls that you've been tracking and just some of the communication that you've had with corporate officers about what they see going forward, how much do they see this continuing in a durable fashion just based on how much wages are increasing and the fact that the label market is strong. I don't think it's durable, at least at the same level that we have sustained thus far. A lot of the resilience that we've seen on the top line has been driven by price volumes, let's call them flat plus or minus on either side, both in kind of the restaurant space, but also in staples. If you think about the CpG companies in the grocery store, volumes have kind of flat lined, so where they can consumers have technically been pulling back from a volume perspective. They're consuming less. Companies have just realized that they can still benefit from taking price that likely can't continue you forever going forward. Well, a lot of people will argue that a lot of the household balance youes look pretty good. So if people want to lever up to get a latte a double mocacino, they can do that. Is that what we're actually seeing that people are just continuing with indulgences, but levering up to do so. Potentially, I don't necessarily it's always a maybe, right, I don't necessarily think that they're leveraging up to buy their latte. But I think if you have to look at the bigger picture macro, if you think about millennials broadly speaking, who maybe are waiting to buy their first home, if you can't do that right now, I would argue that, you know, spending seven bucks on a coffee isn't going to impact your ability to buy a home the same way the Fed would in regards to their rate policy. So I think from a consumer perspective, it's less so about them leveraging up, but a bit more about the bigger macro picture, what they are spending on and how they're supported by jobs to be frank as well. So as an investor, sure do you recommend then consumer discretionaries that are the small luxuries in life that people seem pretty committed to. Yeah. So there is something called the lipstick effect, which we've seen before, specifically, you know, in regards to beauty, where women will still spend on small luxuries to make themselves filtered during times of economic stress. I think that same the pattern or thesis could easily be applied to sweet treats. To think about you know, oreoles or cookies that we like as well as well as just the occasional splurge in regards to dining out and whether that's at you know, full price restaurant. Maybe you're okay spending you know, twenty bucks on your fast food meal that at one time they will indulge, especially during times at economics spress. Do you buy the holozembic argument. Not yet, it's TBD. I do think, you know, these drugs are really powerful for the individuals that they were originally designed to help, maybe those with type two diabetes or who are severely overweight and obese. But consumer habits really die hard, and I think that it might take more than ozebic, at least in its current form, to change those patterns to zooming out. We were just speaking with Veronica Clark over at City Group and she was talking about how they expect a soft patch now and then a reacceleration and inflation because a lot of consumers just keep accepting prices where they are. Do you agree with that, just based on sort of a company specific kind of analysis, I think that if consumers, if the can keep their wage gains that we've seen recently, if they can, if those can be persistent there's a good chance that they will continue to accept the price gains. I think it's as a matter of who's going to blink first. Is it the consumers or is it going to be the corporations in regards to pulling back on price to drive volumes or consumers finally going to reach a point where they say, hey, you know what, I don't want to spend six bucks on a box of cereal anymore. I don't want to buy that seven dollars CLO fee. But as long as they're supported by jobs and some wage gains, I think you know they'll continue to spend. Which raises this question when you talk to corporate executives and they can pass along these costs, are they then hiring more people? No, because at the end of the day, corporates are also responding to markets. Broadly speaking, they're trying to recover the margin that they lost over the past eighteen months or so when inflation and input cost really got out of control. Margins became compressed. At that time, profitability was hammered. They've benefited these past few quarters from those price increases in conjunction with falling input costs. Now, to be fair, those costs haven't completely reverted, but profitability has been strong from them. And for the most part, this is very idiosyncratic, but companies have been rewarded when their bottom lines, of course have expanded or reverted to pre pandemic levels. So is it's just zooming out to wrat this. I guess there's this question of whether some of the legacy retail companies and whether the legacy service companies can continue to operate and thrive based on their capital structures, you know, borrowing costs that was a lot lower from another era that they were going to have to refinance at a higher rate, whether they are still incredible companies to invest in in a current environment. Are you basically saying that yes, because they're able to pass along those costs to consumers that have continued to really go for the products that they're selling. Yes, they've been able to pass along the cost But the maturity wall, broadbly speaking, has been pushed out for several corporates, including those in retail indiscretionary names. And so you know, they have balance sheets these days in the cash fload to support you know, the interest expense that they have now in three or four years when their maturity wall comes to do, we'll see where we are and we can address it at that time. But at the moment, balance sheets are strong, the cash is coming in, they can make their payments, and they're passing along those higher prices. What are the strongest segments of retail right now? It's a great question. Broadly speaking, beauty as a segment that's continuing to do well. Historically, pet has been a segment that's been strong, but we have seen some weakening there. It's probably a bit of a post pandemic trend that's reversing. But people are sick of spending their entire paycheck on Fido. Ashley Allen, thank you so much of Franklin Templeton. We really appreciate that. Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business App. You can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always on the Bloomberg Terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Lisa Abramowitz, and this is BloombergSee 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Lara Rhame, FS Investments Chief US Economist, breaks down today's core PCE price index which showed that both inflation and consumer spending rose in September. Isaac Boltansky, BTIG Policy Research Director, predicts that the chaos in the House will lead to a shutdown later this year. Lisa Shalett, Morgan Stanley Chief Investment Officer of Wealth Management, says that we've entered within 50 basis points of a peak in rates. Poonam Goyal & Anurag Rana, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Analysts, discuss a big week in Big Tech earnings. Chris Marinac, Janney Montgomery Scott Analyst, expects banks to set aside reserves to build confidence going into 2024. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. 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 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Lisa A. Bromoids, along with Tom Keen and Jonathan Ferrell. Join us each day for insight from the best in economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App. We're waiting for the PC data. We're joined by Mike Nicky Aron the Deak. So we're waiting for the personal spending, the deflator. Mike, will it be disinflationary? Roll of the dice, that's the question. We're waiting for the numbers to come down on the Bloomberg Terminal. Well, I got about four seconds until that happens. But the ideas we may get a little more disinflation. Let's find out from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and here come the numbers. And we'll start with the inflation numbers. They come in hotter than anticipated, up four tenths of a percent. I don't know month over a month basis. For the headline, the core comes in up a three tenths which is about what was expected, although there was some leaning towards maybe a little lower number year over year. Now we see the PCE headline number at three point four percent, that's down from three to five, and the core comes in at three seven, down from three to nine. Both of those expected. All the people who like to dive into all those numbers and figure out what actually changed will be with us in a few seconds. Personal income up three tenths. That's lower than the prior month of four tenths gain, but also lower than what was anticipated a four tenths gain. Spending up seven tenths, I mean not strong. On the back of that, on the back of that GDP and the connginut well, this number is in the GDP because this is a September number. It was the third month of the quarter, so he kind of sort of backed out the numbers and anticipated that this would be fairly strong. We were up four tenths the prior month. The question is now do we continue to see that spending happen, Because if incomes are falling behind and they have been the spending levels over the last couple of months, that would suggest that maybe there's a pullback ahead. Now I'm not the expert here. There's one more there is, indeed, La Rain chief economists out with us this morning. First take, I think that we continue to see inflation coming down, but it's still uncomfortably It's still unacceptably high from the point of view of the Fed, and I think the conversation as we go into next year continues to the options for the Fed continue to narrow because if inflation stays about where it is and it's going to take a long time for it to get closer to too, their room to maneuver should the economy slow at all, is going to be very narrow. And look by these numbers, it looks like the economy is just still incredibly strong. We know that from the GDP numbers that we already got, but I mean the spending has just by the households that has defied every expectation of it to slow, and it's accelerated so much in the third quarter. That's what's extraordinary. I think savings rate comes in a three point four percent. People have been watching that for some indication of whether or not they're going to run out of money in the American consumer. It's down from four percent and it's been a steady decline. But historically, before the pandemic, we used to say people spend what they make. They don't dip into savings the way people tend to think they do. And so if that's the case, then there's more of a case now for maybe a slow down. People don't have as much to dip into if they wanted to, but they're also not making as much as they were. Well, I had johnat Henry with me this morning from HSBC and she said, actually Americans are more likely to dip into their savings and spend, spend, spend right to the very end. But I want to bring you an idea from UBS, which is Paul Donovan, where he said, you know, when we go to write the history of twenty twenties, do not bet against the headonism of the US consumer. It's very rich. I love it. I mean, there's a there's a brilliant wine place in London called Hedonism Wines. Whole other story the hedonism. You can tell us that later. I could tell you that later, but I want to understand from you laya the hedonism of the US consumer. Is that real or do you think that runs out of mileage as well. Next sure, listen, he's got a point. That's a really colorful way to put it. But that's what the third quarter felt like. Between the headlines about the concerts, Yeah, all of that, and then and all everyone who followed. I think, you know, people seem to be looking for that next experience and looking to pay whatever is required to get it. You know, this issue of savings has gotten so complicated because we of course have the excess savings that accumulated during the shutdown. Is that more you know, bucketed with these you know sort of now the highest quintile of quartile of household that sort of maybe aren't going to spend them as much. We know that that access savings is run out for a lot of the lower you know sort of strata. The other seventy five percent of us, we're not in that upper quintal. I think as we think about it, people, the normal people, I think, and yet you know, we just see the strong job growth I think reinforces the foundation of the household, and we just see this reacceleration is really unexpected in terms of your hedonism. Example, here services spending went up eight tenths whereas goods spending went up seven tents. There was always a story about people switching away from goods, but they still seem to be spending a lot on goods. Services don't go into the retail sales numbers that we got earlier this month, except for bars and drinking places fitting your theme, but eight tenths of a percent to gain for services pretty strong. So it looks like people were spending money during the third quarter on all sorts of things. I do think there's an interesting dynamic here, which is that if you look at consumer confidence, it's still well below where it was before the pandemic, and that's, you know, despite strong growth. So can you tie those two together. You know that the consumer confidence is being a little bit battered, but the spending it remains unabated. To me, it really, I think inflation is something that is still really casting a long shadow over the household, because you know, when I'm not here, I'm the mom at the grocery store and I've got one bag of groceries and it still cost me ninety five dollars and I can't figure out what's in it, you know, So I think you know this idea that your over year inflation is coming down, but the sticker shock is still a very real and present pain point to household budgets. And Coca Cola are raising prices, and Netflix are raising prices, and there are a Whole and Apple TV they're raising prices as well, and we are moderately immune to those. Do you know that you'll still order a Coca Cola? You'll still order You'll still order your Netflix movie. Mike Well, I was looking here to see if we get super Core. I haven't got that number pulled out yet, but that's the one that the Chairman of the Fed says he likes the most. See if we have that number calculated yet, because you got to take out and then the CPI number that had risen the most since you know, about a year, so it had. I think that's going to be a key piece of today's report too. Well, just looking at the bond market, it's virtually flat. I mean four eighty five is where we are on tenure government bonds. So there's a sort of a flat, sort of unknown entity within the bond market. Let's just check in on equities up for tenenths of one percent again, you've got an Amazon recovery and nice kicker there. It was up six percent at one juncture, giving a little bit back. You're looking at ten year years, just still incrementally rising. This morning at four eighty five, we just had Bmo in Lingen here with us saying look, the next three weeks will define where the endpoint is for the bond spike. Use oil is up one point ninety three percent this morning. Again there's more geopolitical anks with military action in Syria from the US side, and that has brought again a geopolitical bid back to the oil markets. But personal income rises zero point three percent. The estimate was for plus point four percent, So Mike this the takeaway from this is the core price index rises to three point seven percent, pretty much in line with the estimates. We're seeing disinflation, I mean O creative inflation is slowing down. It's not slowing down as perhaps fast as people would like. And to Lar's point, especially about the being the moment at the grocery store, prices go up at a slower rate, but they don't come down. So you're paying more for a lot of staples and they're going to just stay at that price. And so people look at that and they're still experiencing inflation, even if inflation is not as bad as it was before. What what happens then to this view in the market that we're going to get right cuts into twenty twenty four does not debate change. It's got to continue. The FED, I think now has to just continue to ring rate cut expectations out of that future's curve. I feel like this is the deal with the devil right now, because if you had told me that we were going to have GDP growth of almost five percent and the FED was not going to cut rates again, I would have just not believed that was a possible outcome. But FED future's markets are not pricing in another rate cut. Markets seem very convinced the Fed is done. And I think the only way that works is if we continue to get this drift higher in long term yields. And there's a room for that because today markets have seventy five basis points of rate cuts priced in for next year, So if the FED is going to kind of stay on hold, there's room for that to continue to come out, for long term rates to continue to move higher. How do you think they look at this in the Fed? In the Fed might give you look at this the top line is pce is it a four month high consumer spending picks up. It doesn't leave them that huge optionality to be very very dubbish, does it. They can just sit on this at the moment because they forecast in September, the last time they did forecast that we would see PCEE core at three point seven percent at the end of the year. Well, I'm with there bang on where we are. So most economists think with a couple of months to go, we're going to come in below that. So the Fed could argue its targets are being hit. And you mentioned Ian Ling, and he had a great note this morning about how we're starting to see more impacts from higher FED rates and that is slowly getting into the economy and we should see more. So the Fed is probably going to sit there and say what we're doing is working. We're at a level where inflation is still coming down. We don't have to go up more right now with all this uncertainty out there about what's going to happen. Well, and unless inflation is a nine percent there really is no emergency reason to raise rates. That's usually you know, not a thing. So they you know, to your point, they have the time and yet. To me, this increase in long term interest rates is the reason that they can be patient, and that is going to continue to sort of pump the brakes on activity. You know, when I look ahead at next year, my forecast is for slower growth. I think these higher interest rates have actually increased the chance of a recession, not decreased. Is that slower growth? No landing, soft landing, not hard landing. I think it has to be as soft landing. I still feel like there is very real risk of recession next year, and we cannot discount that. But all the reasons why we've been saying it might be a mild recession could also mean that you just end up with some sluggish growth. So, Mike, as we go to the close of the year, what's the next piece that you're going to hang your hat on in terms of dead We've got Michigan at University of Michigan. Yeah, I don't think that's going to move the needle a whole lot. But I think what we are going to focus on is all the data next week, particularly the ISM numbers and then jobs at the end of the week. The Fed meets on Wednesday, so they won't have the jobs figures, but at this point to get an idea of where they're going to go, and nobody is less than a two percent chance they do anything on Wednesday, but nobody expects that. But the question is then what happens January December, January, and the jobs report will contribute to that. That's what will be joining us is Isaac Boltanski, director of policy research at BTIG. Can you give us a sense, to Isaac, of just what kind of leader Mike Johnson is going to be? Can he find some sort of consensus within a very fractured party. I think the simple answer to that is now. I think I think that there are lots of folks who are breathing this deep sigh of relief because now there's someone with a gavel and we can begin handling the people's business again. But when you take a step back, you've got to see that the House Republican caucus is still deeply fractured. It's not clear how well they're going to be able to govern going forward. There's no semblance of bipartisanship anywhere on Capitol Hill, and frankly, Lisa I think that people are downplaying the risk associated with a prolonged government shutdown. I still think that is distinctly possible because we are nowhere, and I mean this nowhere when it comes to figuring out a way to fund the government and deal with all the supplemental funding requests that have been sent from the White House. There's a lot to impact there, and a lot of people have pushed backed against that and said that actually, the fact that we have a speaker makes it less likely that we will have a government shutdown. Are you disagreeing with that? Are you saying that basically this is just a window dressing over a pretty big fracture fissure in the Congress. In Congress, though, the unknown right now is how much of a honeymoon speaker the new speaker is going to get. But my sense when you start to look at some of the specific issues here and really hone in on things like Ukraine funded, or you take a step back and you look at the fact that we haven't even agreed on overall spending levels, I think it's incredibly difficult to believe that that this group is going to be able to easily avert a shutdown. My base case is that we are going to see a shutdown later this year. I don't think that's going to be a massive market moving event, but I do think that the getting the gabble to Speaker Johnson has lessened fears in the market, and that that's unfounded at this point. So the President wants a total of what one hundred and sixty two billion dollars from Congress across Ukraine, Israel, supplemental spending, et cetera. How contentious is this going to be? How much of a flashpoint is this going to be? Will it all be cojoin? Will it just be a great dissipation of this request. So first and foremost, they haven't even agreed on basic funding levels yet, right, so we're not even at a point of agreement over the normal funding levels, and that's going to be the fight for the next few weeks when we then dig into the supplementals, where you do have over one hundred billion in different ass I think that there is clearly political support for things like funding Israel and supporting Israel and it's battle with Hamas. I think that fourteen billion dollars is very likely to get done. There's clearly support for more money at the US southern border. I think that that's bipartisan and by Camel on Ukraine, it's going to be a little bit tougher. And note that this is something that the News Speaker has actually fought against in the past. Last night he did suggest that there is a way to move forward on Ukraine funding, but that they're going to have to be conditions attached to that. No one knows what those conditions are yet. Put it all together, and I think that there is a way forward on this spending package. I just think that we're going to have to go through the same type of pain that we were seeing before when Speaker McCarthy lost the gap. How long do you think this speaker lasts or do you think he is there for the duration? So what of the first things he's going to have to do is try to get rid of that motion to vacate which pulled Kevin McCarthy out of the chair. I think that this speaker has a decent runway to get into first quarter of next year at a minimum. My conversation suggests that there's a real focus on at least getting to April of next year. As a reminder, that's when the one percent across the board. Budget cuts will go into effect if Congress does not pass the twelve appropriation spills. So I think that that's the date that a lot of people have circled on their calendar just trying to make it to that point. So, Isaac, how do you deal with the fact that you are in a situation where the interest that the government has to pay continues to go up? Where does that fall in these budgetary arguments? No one seems to talk about it, but it's on the rise. So if we can't cut the budget at all to do what we want to do, how are we dealing with spending that we now are compelled to do. That's one of the most frustrating parts of the past three weeks is that we weren't talking about the real issues. We weren't talking about the thirty three trillion in debt, we weren't talking about the two trillion deficit we're running this year. We weren't talking about the seven hundred billion dollars it costs US just this year to fund our deficits. And so I think that I remain deeply disheartened because we're not having those conversations, and more broadly, no one, no one, No one cares about the deficit when they're in the majority. They only care about the deficit when they're in the minority. And so until we see something that shocks DC tou to the point where it's forced to think about the debts and deficit differently, it's going to be status quo business as usual. How do you force someone to take a look at their own balance sheet and say, your payment next year is going to be double what your payment was this year, and you couldn't afford your payment this year. Why do we not? Why is that not part of the conversation. I know nobody wants to have it when they're in the majority. Nobody wants to not spend because everybody wants they get there, has a million things they want to spend on. But it's sort of like no one is dealing with the elephant in the room, no pun intended, which is the fact that we've got all this spending that still has to come through on this And I find that particularly frustrating in general. So I just how do we get to that conversation? You should run for office, come on down here and try to try to figure it out. But look, We're going to have a real, real fight over this with the Trump tax cuts expiring. You've got trillions of dollars in tax cuts that are coming due in twenty twenty five from the expiration of the Trump tax cuts, and I think that that could be a forcing mechanism for a broader conversation, but it's going to depend who's in power, right and sot. The next hurdle is to understand who's ahead in the elections. How much is Jennet Yellen's idea the mainstream that yields are going to go back down once we get past this blip, and that higher yields in the US is not a reflection of deficits but really just a reflection of how strong the US economy is. Is that the main idea and belief in Washington, DC. It's the hope of many on Capitol Hill. I don't think that there is anyone who has a firm feel for where yields are going, surely not on Capitol Hill. But it is definitely the hope at this point that everything will fix itself. Because our politics are so broken, they're unable to fix the problems, and so there is a hope that that's the direction that's going, Lisa. But I don't think anyone has a firm feeling one way or the other. Hope is not a strategy. I just keep thinking about that. Isaac Boltanski of BTIG, thank you so much for being with us. Joining us now is Lisa Shallatt CIO at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, And Lisa, I just want to start with have we sold off enough? Because I know you've been bearished, particularly on tech. Has this been a big enough sell off for you? Look, we're not interested in getting in here unless you're a trader. What we, you know, tend to point our clients to is being investors, being long term investors. And you know, our perspective is going has been that we're going to continue to trade in this bear market range, which is where we've been for two years. I mean, people have to pull out their telescope and look at where we've been. You look at the s and P five hundred. We were here in the summer spring of twenty twenty one, and so you know, this is a trader's market right now. We don't think we break out of this range of somewhere around forty two forty five hundred really until the middle of next year, and that's when the fog clears on whether or not we're really going to see growth reaccelerate or we're going to see us you know, probabilities of recession increase. And we've been in the camp that we're going to be in that second scenario where next year economic growth, particularly in the second half, disappoints. I mean, look at the third quarter GDP, we're doing nominal eight percent. What kind of a cop year over year is that going to be in the second half next year. It's a great point. You said that this is a trader's market when it comes to equities. Is it also a trader's market when it comes to bonds. You've been bullish on longer term bonds at a time where there's a feeling that maybe this selloff has legs and actually is fundamentally driven, including by how much the US has to finance. Yeah. I mean, look, our perspective is that we are probably within fifty basis points of a peak in rates, and that having clients begin to embrace this market lock in some of these coupons with the potential for rates on a cyclical basis to reset, creates a double digit return with a third of the volatility. So again, as as as UH you know investors, we think that that the buy and hold on some of these bonds UH is a good value proposition. But I think here too, there's a lot of volatility, and that means you've got to be a trader if you're going to be uh, you know, in this market looking for returns on the month or on the quarter. Lisa, good morning, it's manas. I think that's one of the most honest interpretations. You're not prepared to step and buy into this market in a trading market that we've heard in quite a while. But there is the other side, which is you either view that you've got to build some kind of defense, and I'm drawn to your view that you want real assets and you want gold. Gold is nearly a two thousand dollars and so are you actively adding more real assets than if you're not convinced on pure equity. We are adding and encouraging folks to add some real assets here. I mean, one of our themes has been that, you know, the equity markets in particular are just not pricing real risk premiums. And you know, one of the things that has, you know, given us has been heartening to us is the fact not only are we getting higher real rates in the bond market, but that there's a term premium that suddenly people realize that in a new inflation and in a new interest rate regime where the FED is going to be data dependent, there is lumpiness and there is uncertainty over time about how that data is going to come out. Add in all the geopolitical dimensions to what's going on right now, the dimensions of dysfunction in Washington, d C. The fact we're rolling into an election year in the US where I think that the headlines and the developments are going to be extraordinarily volatile. Our view is that real assets, things like commodities, things like real estates, things like energy, infrastructure assets could really, you know, be a source of protection here in stability in portfolios. We just had in Lincoln here from BMO. We talked about a number of different things that could drive the bond market, term premium being one, fiscal deficit's being another. He thinks that the peak, the peak spike in rates could be over the next couple of weeks. Would you agree with that, and if so, what part of the bond market. Would you like to take a portion off or add to if you're adding real commodities, what would you add in duration? Yeah, we're we're looking at Our perspective is that the best value right now is really intermediate, somewhere between four to six. We're finding some value in sevens in the treasury market in fact, but we're looking at investment and great corporate, so you know, we're taking the treasury yield and taking some of that spread. We do believe that there are quality balance sheets out there that can service you know, these coupons. So we're we're enthusiastic that the middle of the curve could produce double digit returns over the next you know, twelve to eighteen months. Lisa, I'm curious about this really different reaction when it's come to this geopolitical these devastating geopolitical events. Normally we would see US yields plunge in the face of this, and we had that reaction. But you know, you blinked and you missed it. We're right back up again. Does that represent a more fundamental reassessment of treasuries as a risk free asset? You know, you were going into this government shutdown again, an episode which historically has given us lower yields, and we sort of shrug it off. Is this time going to be different because people are fundamentally reassessing the dollar as a flight to quality and the result treasures. Yeah, I mean, I love that you're bringing up this issue. I mean, this is one of the issues that we talk about with our clients all the time because it is our sense that something fundamental is going on and that the appetite for US treasury debt is different this time. Clearly, you know, the market is readjusting to not having the FED as a price and sensitive buyer, right, we know that, and and QT is certainly a weight here. But you know, you look at what's going on among Japanese investors. They're facing the realities of a tough currency compare and really tough hedging costs in terms of their ability to buy treasuries in the size that they have been buying really over the last decade. The geopolitical dimensions of this, you know, historically, we know China has has been a big buyer given their you know, trade balances and foreign currency reserves and US dollars. Uh, there's a lot of complexity UH, and a lot I believe to question about why we haven't seen that flight to safety UH manifest as it historically has in US treasuries. I do think that this is something we need to watch and study and really think hard about about whether or not something is changing and whether the US treasury market is vulnerable to geopolitics for the first time, maybe since World War Two. Lisa Chalatte Morgan Stanley Wealth mentioned it is clear cut that when people are spending on clothes, Amazon does well. But that seems to be what we experienced yesterday in the Earth, straining us now to really pass through it. Anor A Karana and Punam Goyle of Bloomberg Intelligence covering the tech and the retail side of things. Anag, I want to start with you, are we basically just learning that Microsoft is taking the lead when it comes to cloud computing and Amazon and Google are falling behind. See I'm a big fan about Microsoft's down over the years, but I would not say that they are leading here. I would just say that in the Genai, you know, Frenzy, they just have a leg up because of their relationship with open Ai. But Amazon is still the biggest cloud out there. They have more, yeah, I would say revenue than anybody else. That's partially the reason why their relative growth rates are not as strong. But last night's comments on the conference call were so positive and I think that's what's driving the stock up here. Before that, the stock was flat, and you know, it was just the positive I would say body language of the management team that you know, the cloud bottom may be here for them. Okay, who's got the strongest who has the strongest cloud offering, and who will win the most market share? Well, Amazon's far bigger in terms of you know, revenue, the revenue boundard is closer to ninety billion dollars compared to Microsoft, which is closer to sixty billion, and with Google somewhere around twenty four to twenty five billion. So Amazon's clearly the leader with the biggest network and biggest footprint. But let's bring you into the conversation here. This has been a brutal week. At one junction, we lost two hundred billion dollars in market cap of some of these biggest and most loved, most owned stocks in the US. As you go to the close of the week, there was a brutalization of stocks that disappointed on Clyde, But the one thing that stood out to me is that there are these tech companies and they are raising prices. How does that play into your thinking? Yeah, I think on the retail side, Amazon actually has done a great job in maintaining its share and even growing it. You know, when you talk about raising crisis, do then in flee. I think it's quite the opposite at Amazon. You're actually seeing them push forward low crisis, especially on those deal days that they have, like Prime Days, and that's driving the consumer spend. We're expecting Amazon to use it scale and speed to really push the pedal on prices even more as we go through the holiday season, and that's going to drive consumers to their platform, allowing them to go gain share over competitors. Plunum advertising revenue has been growing at a double digit clip based on what two hundred million global Prime subscribers were able to get an early WED on that Prime Video ads edition. I think the ad edition is going to take time to build right now. The bulk of that advertising revenue is driven from the retail side, and I think that's really key here that's going to continue to climb. And remember that advertising is a much more profitable business than the retail business and even the cloud business. So as that business scales beyond fifty billion, which it's trending to right now, it's going to drive the bottom line for Amazon. And that edition of the ads that you're talking about, I think that's just icing on the cake. I mean, that's really going to also help build revenues for Amazon and allow customers to choose do they want the ads or do they want the content without the ads where they would have to pay attlefore that. And you're right, we've now digested earnings from Alphabet, Meta, Intel, IBM, you name it. You know, what are the primary takeaways from you from three third quarter performance? I think if we are not very close to the bottom, you know, we have probably a quarter or two away, and I think that really sets up well for a big rebound in twenty twenty four. And I think this was the biggest fear that we have that what's going to happen beginning of next year with geopolitical conditions getting worse. And I think last night's results and even Microsoft's comments give us some hope that things are not as bad as you know, you know, people are making out to be. It does raise a question though, about the differentiation on rog within the cloud space, within the AI space, and whether companies are being reward for investing in some of the AI intelligence AI programming that could make a lot of money. Did you get the sense that Amazon was rewarded more on that front than Google. See. One of the biggest thing I think it's the scale matters now, And you have to remember most enterprises around the world fortune two thousand companies are going to experiment with this technology over the next twelve to twenty four months. Who are they going to go to. All these companies have the building blocks for people to experiment, So I'm not saying one's going to win over the other. All three of them are going to get their fair share of revenue from the clients. The problem is on the other side, they actually don't have enough GPU capacity to go out and build some of that AI workloads or training models and other things. But I'm fairly confident that over the next twelve for twenty four months, all three of them are going to see some benefit from Jenai. Who's got the ability to deliver the best margins. You note that revenue grew by twelve percent of aws, but the margin jump by third thirty percent. Who else is at thirty percent or beating that? Or is that where the aspiration is to deliver stronger margins? Is that part of the buy thesis. So one of the things we have talked about, think about all the three companies in the long run. Now the long run could be five years or ten years. These businesses have potential to grow operating margins north of forty percent. Now that's the reason why we say that is if you look at you know, processing companies and other things, when they reach maturity stage, these are highly scalable business Once you you know, go through the cycle of capax, you don't really require that much money to maintain them. We are confident in the the long run all three of them will have great margins. The other two companies don't really disclose it at the cloud level, at that infrastructure level, but to that extent, I mean, I mean, frankly, alphabet is still losing money in their cloud portfolio. But there is a lot of different things that go into that. Put on what's the takeaway that we've gotten in terms of these earnings about how much retailers in the US continue their hedonistic tendencies. Yeah, I thank you for the retailers. It's going to be mixed. As we moved through holiday, there is going to be clear winners and losers. And we do think that the consumer is really focused on value and that trend isn't going away for the holiday season, so they're going to have to suction the pedal on price and inventories aren't as high as they were last year, so it's really going to depend on their ability to bring product in to drive demand and really keep prices well the holiday season. Un I'm Gail on our grounda both of you. Thank you so much for being with us. One aspect of the market that's kind of flown under the radar is the regional banks in particular, especially as we talk about the big banks and the successors and all of that, and we could see that so far you're to date the BKX, the KBX KBW index is down twenty five percent, close to the lows that we saw during the crisis back in March. Now is Chris Marinac, director of research at Jenny Montgomery Scott. And I know Chris that you've been really bullish on the banking sector and I want to get your take on what you make of the selloff that has persisted. Well. I think, Lisa, there's been some continued struggles about the fears of credit quality getting worse in twenty twenty four. I think that there's been some passive flows against the banks. I've heard of a lot of folks shorting the KRX and the KRE and then going along in the Nasdaq one hundred, So that has been a challenge in terms of incremental selling. I think to some extent, the banks are not sexy here and they're not doing anything from a growth perspective that causes investors to dive in. And I think most of the fun flows has been to other growth areas and other areas that are kind of avoiding anything that's economically sensitive and perhaps recession recession proNT So have you gotten less bullish on this area because we have seen a bit of underperformance versus expectations, particularly in the regional space, and there isn't a clear pathway to growth. Well, the stocks have an opportunity to trade back to forty five to forty seven on the KRE. I think the question is can we get investors to pay attention to what really matters, which is cash flow. The operating cash flow for most banks is only down about ten percent from the August estimate's pre third quarter earnings, and so I think the other ninety percent of PP and R is actually very strong to allow banks to earn through the cycle on credit issues and anything that comes their way. I think their capacity to absorb losses is extremely good, and that's one of the reasons I've thought the stocks have opportunities to do better. I don't think we'll go back to where we would have been on the KRE pre Silicon valley, but I do think we can be better than we are, and I think we have to get through this recession discounting that the market is doing at the moment. Yeah, we are pretty obsessed with the recession dis kind in it just hasn't come home Durus yet, Chris good Morning. Provisioning was something that stood out for me as being on the low side in this reporting season. Of course, if there is no dramatic slow dying and there is no hard landing, then that's all justified that The acinting reason, do you think twenty twenty four is going to be madred by an increase a material increase in provisioning, and if so, word does it hurt the most. So I think that the provisions will rise in twenty four primarily because I think charge offs will go up. We have a lot of companies who are writing off fifteen to twenty basis points of charge offs, which is very very low. So going back to thirty or forty basis points for most mid sized banks is normal. I think your large national companies probably right off between forty five and fifty, so that's a little higher than the forty range that they are today, So that will cause provision to rise. I think generally most banks are going to set aside reserves to kind of build confidence with themselves. Clearly, the accounting on SECOIL has led banks to actually limit their reserve growth this quarter, less than I would have fought. I think to some extent it is driven by unlimited balance sheet growth and also the Moody's forecast that a lot of banks use has actually pushed out the recession, and that is also tamped down the reserve calculations. I mean, you think the consensus is obviously JP Morgan just keeps getting bigger. It's just like this juggernaut that just swallows everything and moves everything out of its way. You've listened to the conference calls, You've listened to a couple of these CEOs. Who's under most pressure in the banking sphere? I know I have my target list, But who do you think is under the most pressure as the CEO at the moment? Well, I think there are regional banks who have capital ratios that are depressed when you take the mark to market for all securities, both for the available for sale and held the maturity, So that issue has to be resolved. I think to some extent, banks will work out of their issues on their own because securities are going to start maturing in four and twenty five and to some extent these marks start to flatten out. We don't have to see FED policy chains for the marks to get better. I think somebody think that some of the payoffs of securities coming due at maturity will help. I think the pressure is on the regional banks who are going to have these new FED accounting rules, which basically means who ratios are lower than they're reported, And even though it's phased in over a three year period, the market just perceives that they have to adopt those capital rules today, so to some extent, I think we have to fight through that. The good news is the banks are profitable, they can pay dividends. There's no changes happening on some of those major items like common and preferred dividends. So I think the attitude for the investors should be better than it is. But I think the pressure is really on the regional banks where the definition is changing on capital. I do think will work through it, but that continues to be the pressure point at the moment. So does that mean that we have to extend the BTFP and do you believe that they will extend that we don't have to extend it. It It would be nice to extend because it simply takes one issue off the table. The use of BTFP has been very limited. It's hovering around one hundred and nine billion for weeks and weeks, and so the banks who have used it have used it. Some may renew if given the opportunity, but if they don't, I don't think it's a big problem. It would be nice to do that. It would be nice to have some FDIC deposit insurance reform to be able to buy insurance on uninsured depositors. I'm not sure the FDIC is going to go there, so that would be my thought on that. So it sounds like the regional banks have a maturity profile that's not as dire as I think some of us were worried about. But I think about some of the assets that are sitting there. Are the regional banks kind of stuck like utilities where I'm in a flat yield curve, so I don't have a lot going on there. I have some things I may have to write off, but I just don't see a lot of growth ahead of me. And they don't have the diversification of some of the money center banks. Well, I actually think the diverse location is actually very good. I mean, you have office real estates very limited, even commercial real estates very limited. Within the C and I space, there's a lot of different mid size and small businesses that regional banks and even community banks do and provide a great service for that. The economy is healthier than I think folks realize. But even if it changes, the ability for companies to earn through is very good. What we see happening is actually less balance sheet growth but more turnover old loans that are at low yields, renewing at high yields. A new loan today is going on the books at eight percent, and that actually is very attractive, and it's going to cosset the mix to shift on netatrist margin. We think margins may actually bottom in the first quarter, if not sooner, and that will help the stocks. I think catch a little bit of a bid. Chris, just real quick here, final word on Ted Pick the idea of some of the succession at Morgan Stanley. Is it significant in terms of the direction of that bank or do you think that it's basically going to be a continuing of the guard. Well, the investment banking business is the highest margin business of these large international firms, so it didn't surprise me at all that he was the choice. I think that his leadership inside the company has been very well thought of for a long time, so it seemed to make sense. I think to some extent they want to put the best foot forward, not to be negative on the wealth management space, because it's certainly a huge driver. They picked up a lot of new customers from the First Republic failure in April and May, so there's a lot happening there. But it seemed to be kind of continuing on the investment banking Angela Chris Marrinac of Jenny Montgomery Scott. Thank you so much. Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always on the Bloomberg Terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Lisa Abramowitz, and this is BloombergSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

I've put together a remixed buffet of some of the best guests and conversations from the most popular episodes this season. Featuring:- Stephanie Scott (EP:88) on the Creative Path2:15 - 10:25- Densil McFarlane (EP:75) of the OBGM's on being Strong Creatively11:23 - 18:31- Isabel Carreńo (EP:85) on "Not Taking it Too Seriously"19:47 - 26:18- Kim-A-Tron (EP:84) - "There is No Proper Way to be an Artist"27:14 -3 5:32- The High Road Design (Jon Kutt) (EP:89) on Creative Bitterness36:36 - 43:58- Robin (EP:80) and Elaine (EP:83) on Marketing, Partnership, and Kitchener45:00 - 54:54- Taylor Jones  (EP:81)and Kyle Sawyer (EP:94) on the Keys to Success in Business and Contrived vs Occurring Ideas56:14 - 1:02:48- Jonathan Ferrell (farrell_lego) (EP:65) on the Wisdom of Letting Go1:04:14 - 1:06:48- Izzy (Isabelle Poirier) of the Ottawa Design Club (EP:82) on Why We Create and Finding her Purpose1:08:00 - 1:12:10this episode was produced by Ryan Leacock(*some audio was corrupted in the mixer - this is the best Mixed Media Sound could fix it.  Better luck next season.)Thank you for a great 2nd season!This episode is sponsored by Him and Herhttps://www.himandher.ca/Music for this episode was created by:Sarah, the IllstrumentalistMatt LargeshamgangpeerlessYomotiBonkers Beat ClubSINYDusty Decks

Today we sit down with Eddie Gray from Greg Davis Agency Farmers Insurance in a more casual setting. We get to know Eddy on a more personal level as he shares why he enjoys his new found profession in insurance with a agency who has been serving the Temecula/Murrieta area for over 30 years.Should you ever need any kind of insurance, Eddie Gray will gladly help in any way he can, you can find him at:27645 jefferson ave suite 113temecula ca 92590

This week is all about building your wealth through real-estate the smart way! Willie sits down with Jacklyn Laquindanum and picks her brain for insight on the latest news in real estate. We hope you gain value from these episodes and hope you enjoy!Two Mortgage GuysBe sure to please like and subscribe!----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------For up to date news on us and what we are up to please follow our other pages!Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/twomortgageguys/Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/twomortgageguys/------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------For all business inquiries please contact us via phone or website @(951) 473-4733https://www.twomortgageguysca.com/We hope you have enjoyed our podcast and channel!Please feel free to Like, Comment, and Subscribe!

This week Jonathan Ferrell sits down with Peter Varberg of Southwestern Coaching. They go deep into the topic of self improvement, systems, and why hiring a coach is beneficial for your life! We hope you gain tremendous value from this weeks episode and as always, We hope you enjoy!Two Mortgage GuysBe sure to please like and subscribe!----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------For up to date news on us and what we are up to please follow our other pages!Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/twomortgageguys/Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/twomortgageguys/------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------For all business inquiries please contact us via phone or website @(951) 473-4733https://www.twomortgageguysca.com/We hope you have enjoyed our podcast and channel!Please feel free to Like, Comment, and Subscribe!

This week Our very own Andrew Reynolds sits down with our Marketing Guru, Podcast Professional, and Man with the Cam, James Watson. They go deep into how our podcast can benefit you and your community as well as how our show impacts people world wide! We hope you gain much value from our weekly podcasts and enjoy!Two Mortgage GuysBe sure to please like and subscribe!----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------For up to date news on us and what we are up to please follow our other pages!Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/twomortgageguys/Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/twomortgageguys/------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------For all business inquiries please contact us via phone or website @(951) 473-4733https://www.twomortgageguysca.com/We hope you have enjoyed our podcast and channel!Please feel free to Like, Comment, and Subscribe!

Season 3 of our podcast is starting off a little differently. This season we are welcoming Local and Small Business' on to our show and allowing them to show us what value they can bring you and to our community. This Episode is hosted by our brand newest LO, Erin Quinn! She welcomes Nathan Baddon, Founder of thehandyguy.comHe finds professional and trustworthy handy "guys" and brings them to you for a better price than most others out there! His website also has a shop where you can find new furniture and home items for a fraction of the price! "In most cases we even beat Amazon!" - Nathan Baddon.We hope you enjoy this short episode and will tune in for the next one to come!

We're back! We are excited to announce Season 3!This season we are doing things a little differently.. In 2020 we went through a tremendous amount of growth and decided to share it all with you!We have our own studio as well as better knowledge to share with you all!Are you ready?

"Ya Didn't Ask"...but these guys in the NBA are tired too. Being black in America is effing exhausting. Life has enough challenges of its own, but the challenge that comes with being black is different and tiring-mentally, physically, emotionally, spiritually tiring. Everyone has an opinion on what NBA players, perhaps the most visible members of our community, should do with their platform. Play, don't play. Protest, don't protest. Take a knee, don't take a knee. Leave the bubble, stay in the bubble, they never should have gone to the bubble. These guys are living out their dreams, as professional ball players nonetheless, and now some have the expectation that these professional ball players should take the mantle and lead the way in the decades long fight for human and civil rights. There are no excuses. These gentlemen chose to train their bodies to pivot, finish at the rim, drain threes and make stepback jumpers. They then, in the spirit of the athletic ancestors who came before them, took it upon themselves to train their voices to speak against racism, injustice, police brutality, etc. Being black in America is effing exhausting and these black men are tired. They should be. Black women in the WNBA are tired too. So tired that some decided not to play this season. Maya Moore hasn't played for multiple seasons...because being black AND fighting for black people AND playing ball is too much right now. Black women often see it first. The black men of the NBA are starting to recognize it too, so they took a couple of days off. What happens now? None of us can predict it. We'll get an NBA champion out of the bubble. We'll get a WNBA champ as well. Sick and tired is a real thing and black fatigue requires days off. I'll end with a popular summary of why we're so doggone tired... “We can't jog - Ahmaud Arbery. We can't relax in the comfort of our homes - Botham Jean, Atatiana Jefferson, Breonna Taylor We can't ask for help after being in a car wreck - Jonathan Ferrell and Renisha McBride. We can't hold a cellphone - Stephon Clark. We can't leave a party to get to safety - Jordan Edwards. We can't listen to loud music - Jordan Davis. We can't sell CD's - Alton Sterling. We can't sleep in our beds - Aiyana Jones. We can't play cops and robbers - Tamir Rice. We can't walk home with skittles - Trayvon Martin. We can't get a traffic ticket - Sandra Bland. We can't lawfully carry a carry a weapon - Philando Castile. We can't go to church - the Charleston 9. We can't allegedly whistle – Emmett Till.” "Everyone expects us to go out and play. I get it. But we needed some time....We needed some time to refocus and understand that we can do that. We're human..." ~ Chris Paul We’re the ones getting killed. We’re the ones getting shot. We’re the ones that were denied to live in certain communities. We’ve been hung. We’ve been shot. All you do is keep hearing about fear...It’s just ridiculous. It just keeps getting … It keeps going. There’s no charges. Brionna Taylor, no charges, nothing. ~ Doc Rivers "We're tired of the killings and the injustice," ~ George Hill "My house has been burned to the ground, animals tortured and burned as well," Rivers' son Austin, tweeted out earlier. "Along with anything we ever loved, and held treasured, because of the color of my dad's skin. We lost everything and had to start over." ~ Austin Rivers --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/mike493/message

Their names are George Floyd. Breonna Taylor. Ahmaud Arbery.Botham Jean. Tamir Rice. Trayvon Martin. Eric Garner. Philando Castile.Sandra Bland.Jordan Davis. Kendrick Johnson. Samuel Dubose. Jonathan Ferrell. Oscar Grant. Sean Bell. and and and and and .............................. --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/shelaughs/message Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/shelaughs/support

We must remember... TRAYVON MARTIN, ATATIANA JEFFERSON, AMADOU DIALLO, AIYANA JONES, JOHN CRAWFORD, BOTHAM JEAN, AHMAUD ARBERY, SEAN BELL, JONATHAN FERRELL, RENISHA MCBRIDE, TERENCE CRUTCHER, SANDRA BLAND, ERIC GARNER, TAMIR RICE, JORDAN EDWARDS, PHILANDO CASTILE, ALTON STERLING, JORDAN DAVIS, OSCAR GRANT, KEITH SCOTT, STEPHON CLARK, WALTER SCOTT, FREDDIE GRAY, MICHAEL BROWN, COREY JONES, DOUG LEWIS, BREONNA TAYLOR, GEORGE FLOYD. blacklivesmatter #podcastblackout #icantbreathe Send us your feedback online: https://pinecast.com/feedback/retro-ridoctopus/19799abd-feb3-46e2-a645-fe3a727c887b

Black Lives Matter Natosha “Tony” McDade, George Floyd, Yassin Mohamed, Finan H. Berhe, Sean Reed, Steven Demarco Taylor, Ariane McCree, Terrance Franklin, Miles Hall, Darius Tarver, William Green, Samuel David Mallard, Kwame “KK” Jones, De’von Bailey, Christopher Whitfield, Anthony Hill, De’Von Bailey, Eric Logan, Jamarion Robinson, Gregory Hill Jr., JaQuavion Slaton, Ryan Twyman, Brandon Webber, Jimmy Atchison, Willie McCoy, Emantic “EJ” Fitzgerald Bradford Jr., D’ettrick Griffin, Jemel Roberson, DeAndre Ballard, Botham Shem Jean, Robert Lawrence White, Anthony Lamar Smith, Ramarley Graham, Manuel Loggins Jr., Trayvon Martin, Wendell Allen, Kendrec McDade, Larry Jackson Jr., Jonathan Ferrell, Jordan Baker, Victor White lll, Dontre Hamilton, Eric Garner, John Crawford lll, Michael Brown, Ezell Ford, Dante Parker, Kajieme Powell, Laquan McDonald, Akai Gurley, Tamir Rice, Rumain Brisbon, Jerame Reid, Charly Keunang, Tony Robinson, Walter Scott, Freddie Gray, Brendon Glenn, Samuel DuBose, Christian Taylor, Jamar Clark, Mario Woods, Quintonio LeGrier, Gregory Gunn, Akiel Denkins, Alton Sterling, Philando Castile, Terrence Sterling, Terence Crutcher, Keith Lamont Scott, Alfred Olango, Jordan Edwards, Stephon Clark, Danny Ray Thomas, DeJuan Guillory, Patrick Harmon, Jonathan Hart, Maurice Granton, Julius Johnson, Jamee Johnson, Michael Dean   https://newsone.com/playlist/black-men-boy-who-were-killed-by-police/item/37

Giustizia per George Floyd, Amaud Arbery, Tamer Rice,Eric Garner,Jordan Davis, Renisha McBride, Jonathan Ferrell e per le altre innumerevoli vite perse a causa della police brutality. Firmate la petizione affinché venga depositata l'accusa di omicidio contro gli agenti che hanno ucciso George: https://www.change.org/p/giustizia-per-george-floyd?recruiter=false&utm_source=share_petition&utm_campaign=psf_combo_share_initial&utm_medium=whatsapp&recruited_by_id=57270430-a1ec-11ea-9875-0d2e163f4f51&share_bandit_exp=skip-22455447-it-IT&share_bandit_var=v2 Il razzismo sistemico: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YrHIQIO_bdQ&t=1s

We Won't Forget!www.givingapurposepodcast.comCorey Jones, Notosha “Tony” McDade, George Floyd, Yassin Mohamed, Finan Berhe, Sean Reed, Steven Taylor, Ariane McCree, Terrance Franklin, Miles Hall, Darius Tarver, William Green, Samuel David Mallard, Kwame “KK” Jones, De’von Bailey, Christopher Whitfield, Anthony Hill, Eric Logan, Jamarion Robinson, Gregory Hill Jr., JaQuavion Slaton, Ryan Twyman, Brandon Webber, Jimmy Atchison, Willie McCoy, Emantic Fitzgerald Bradford Jr., D’ettrick Griffin, Jemel Roberson, DeAndre Ballard, Botham Jean, Robert Lawrence White, Anthony Lamar Smith, Ramarley Graham, Manuel Loggins Jr., Trayvon Martin, Wendell Allen,  Kendrec McDade, Larry Jackson Jr. , Jonathan Ferrell, Jordan Baker, Victor White III, Dontre Hamilton, Eric Garner, John Crawford III, Michael Brown, Ezell Ford, Dante Parker, Kajieme Powell, Laquan McDonald, Akai Gurley, Tamir Rice, Rumain Brison, Jerame Reid, Charly Keunang, Tony Robinson, Walter Scott, Freddie Gray, Bredon Glenn, Samuel Dubose, Christian Taylor, Jamar Clark, Mario Woods, Quintonio LeGrier, Gregory Gunn, Akeil Denkins, Alton Sterling, Philando Castile, Terrence Sterling, Terrance Crutcher, Keith Lamont Scott, Alfred Olango, Jordan Edwards, Stephon Clark, Danny Ray Thomas, DeJuan Guillory, Patrick Harmon, Jonathan Hart, Maurice Granton, Julius Johnson, Jamee Johnson, Michael Dean

his month’s episode of This Is Centenary features a celebration of two Centenary alumni from different generations who will now be forever linked. In a ceremony that was alternately funny, moving, and inspirational, Centenary alumnus Jonathan Ferrell, of the class of 2005, received the inaugural Mary Celeste Reagan Trailblazer Award, named for Centenary’s first African-American graduate. Ms. Reagan, who graduated in 1969, was honored during the award ceremony held during the College’s 2020 Dream Week in January, and offered words of encouragement and hope that resonate in both ordinary and extraordinary times.

Gord Hill on Art and Resistance Gord Hill is an indigenous author, anarchist, antifascist and militant, a member of the Kwakwaka'wakw nation living in so-called British Columbia, Canada. Gord is also graphic artist and comic book author who most recently published The Antifa Comic Book, out from Arsenal Pulp Press, and runs the website Warrior Publications and sometimes publishes under the nom-de-plume of ZigZag. For the hour we speak about his writings documenting indigenous resistance history in the so-called Americas (mostly with a focus on Turtle Island), antifascist organizing, intersections of indigenous struggle and anarchism and critiques of Pacifism (see Gord's “Smash Pacifism” zine). Some of the points of resistance that we cover include Elsipogtog (Elsipogtog in 5 Minutes video at sub.media), Idle No More, The Oka Crisis (“The Oka Crisis in 5 Minutes” video at sub.media), Stoney Point/Aazhoodena (another 5 minutes video by Gord), Gustafsen Lake (we didn't talk about but another 5 minute video), the Zapatista Rebellion and the Unist'ot'en Camp resistance to pipelines in so-called B.C. (Sean Swain at 3min 55sec, Gord Hill at 11min 27sec, announces at 57min 29sec) Rayquan Borum Trial Update In a brief and sad update to last week's interview on the case of Rayquan Borum, we'd like to read a statement from the fedbook page for Charlotte Uprising: We are deeply saddened to report that Rayquan Borum has been found guilty of possession of a firearm and second degree murder with him being sentenced to 25/26 years in a cage. We knew it would be difficult to receive a fair trial in the same court that allowed Officer Randall Kerrick to walk free for the murder of unarmed Jonathan Ferrell. We know the police will continue to kill Black and brown folks and escape accountability. We suffered extreme suppression from the judge from the start of the trial. Even though the medical examiner testified there was a 51% chance that ANYTHING else killed Justin Carr, Judge Hayes would not allow any testimony naming the police. Of course, it is far easier to scapegoat a random Black man than to launch an investigation into the same police force that killed ONLY Black people in 2015. We also know that Justin Carr would be alive were it not for the Charlotte Mecklenburg Police Department murder of Keith Lamont Scott (no trial for that officer, of course). We know that the Mecklenburg County Courts disproportionately sentence Black and brown bodies to time in cages. We know that CMPD disproportionately arrests Black and brown folks. Black people are 30% of Charlotte's population and make up about 70% of the jail population. Heinous. We know that this is the American Way. In response, we will continue to rise up and resist this colonized nation and work toward building a more decolonized world, for all of us. Forward, together #CMPDKilledJustinCarr #CagesFixNothing #FreeThemAll #CMPD #RayquanBorum #MecklenburgCounty #NoMoreKIllerCopsOrJails Announcements A few house keeping notes about the show. We're happy to announce that The Final Straw is now available on the Pacifica Radio platform for affiliate stations to pick up more easily. If you, dear listener, live in an area where we aren't on the radio but there's a community station that airs programming from the Pacifica Network, you now have a WAY easier IN to bug the station's programming director with. If you want us on your airwaves, check out our “broadcasting” tab on our website and reach out to a local radio station. If you have questions or want help, reach out to us and we're happy to chat. We hope to have a some more terrestrial broadcast stations to announce soon. Actually, yah, that was the only note. Tee hee. Otherwise, if you want to hear Bursts dj'ing a 2 hour set of punk, goth and electronica on AshevilleFM, an archive is linked up in our show notes that's available until March 12th.   Asheville Events If you're in the Asheville area, there're a few events coming up on March 16th of note. At 11am at Firestorm books, a participant in the Internationalist Commune, a self-organized collective in Northern Syria, will join us for a video chat about the revolutionary movement to transform Kurdish territory into a stateless society. Later, across town, there're a couple of Blue Ridge ABC events at Static Age on Saturday, March 16th. From 3-5pm there'll be an N64 Super Smash Brothers tournament with vegan philly cheese steaks and fries available, and then from 9pm onward an antifascist black metal show featuring Arid from Chicago, plus local bands Rat Broth and Feminazgul. Then, a reminder, that on March 22nd at the Block Off Biltmore is a benefit for info-sharing between Southern Appalachia and Rojava. The event will include a discussion, a short documentary showing, vegan desserts and nice merchandise. For more info, check out the flyer in our shownotes from March 3rd, 2019. And now a couple of prisoner announcements Chelsea Manning Imprisoned U.S. Army whistleblower and former Political Prisoner, Chelsae Manning, has been jailed for criminal contempt for refusing a subpoena to participate in a Federal Grand Jury in Virginia concerning her 2010 disclosures to Wikileaks of U.S. drone killings of civilians in Iraq and Afghanistan. A support committee called “Chelsea Resists!” has been set up and updates will be coming from the website xychelsea.is and there's a fundraiser up at actionnetwork.com for her as well. We hope to feature members of her support as well as former Grand Jury resisters who've been on this show before in an episode soon. You can write to Chelsea at the following address: Chelsea Elizabeth Manning AO181426 William G. Trusdale Adult Detention Center 2001 Mill Road Alexandria, VA 22314 Some quick guidelines to keep her safer while writing are in the show notes Address your letter exactly as shown above send letters on white paper use the mail service to send letters include color drawings if you'd like sparingly send 4x6 photos, as she may only keep 10 at a time Do not send cards, packages, postcards, photocopies or cash Do not decorate the outside of the envelope do not send books or magazines Exonerated Vaughn 17 prisoners transferred out of state As the cases proceed against the Vaughn17, 17 prisoners on trial in Delaware for a prison uprising following the election of Trump as president, an uprising sometimes compared to the Lucasville Uprising, repression continues. The uprising was as follows: prisoners took over Building C at the Vaughn prison in Smyrna, Delaware, and took three prison guards and one prison counselor hostage. Demands issued during the hostage standoff included that Delaware Governor John Carney investigate poor living conditions at the facility. One correctional officer who was taken hostage, Steven Floyd, would later be found dead after police re-entered the facility. The case can be followed at vaughn17support.org as it enters it's third trial group. A few words from the support site note the continued repression of some of the court-exonerated prisoners: The State of Delaware retaliated against defendants in the Vaughn uprising trial last week, by moving them out of state to Pennsylvania. Kevin Berry, Abednego Baynes, Obadiah Miller, Johnny Bramble, Dwayne Staats, and Jarreau Ayers were all transferred to solitary confinement at SCI Camp Hill, a maximum security facility. They joined Deric Forney, who was transferred weeks earlier in January. Berry, Baynes, and Forney have all been fully acquitted on all charges. “It's unusual to move prisoners with short terms left in their sentence out of state,” said Fariha Huriya, an organizer working closely with Vaughn 17 prisoners. “They're being held in solitary confinement, with no showers, no access to commissary, and limited phone calls. It's the same inhumane conditions that they faced at James T. Vaughn.” “The State's vindictiveness will cost them,” said Betty Rothstein, who also organizes with the prisoners. “The Vaughn 17 have resisted these charges, and will continue to resist and expose the corruption of the DOC and abuse on prisoners.” There are nine defendants who are still awaiting trial. New trial dates for groups 3 and 4 are scheduled for May 6th, 2019, and October 21st, 2019. . ... . .. Playlist

This week, we feature two segments on the show: an interview with a Russian anarchist about the recent ramping up of torture and repression by the FSB in Russia against anarchists and anti-fascists  (00:14:13); and a chat with Patrick Strickland, author of "Alerta! Alerta!: Snapshots of Europe's Anti-Fascist Struggle” (00:34:17); plus anarchist prisoner Sean Swain on his bid to "Build The Wall" (00:08:27) FSB Torture of Radicals First up, Bursts spoke with Tania, a Russian anarchist, a member of the crew who runs the RUpression website documenting Russian state agencies like the FSB's use of torture to extract stories to build conspiracies to legitimize their tightening of restrictions on public gatherings, chill the political and media landscape, and sustain a state of sense of fear among the populace. We discuss the death of Mikhail Zhlobitsky in a bombing of an FSB office in October, the current state of anarchist organizing in Russia, and the past political repression since 2012 and the cases in Pensa and the 2017 "The Network" conspiracy case (which we've spoken of in this show in the past here and here). In February 2019, a situation unfolded where Azat Miftakhov disappeared, came back tortured, and accused of taking part in an anarchist terrorist plot. Azat was released by court order only to be re-arrested by another police agency (well documented in this crimethInc article, alongside some downloadable posters for pasting around your town). You can learn more about the case by reading and following rupression.com Patrick Strickland on European Anti-Fascism Secondly, William had the chance to interview Patrick Strickland, who is a journalist and author, about his recently released book "Alerta! Alerta! Snapshots of Europe's Anti-Fascist Struggle". This book follows the stories and lives of 5 European people who do broadly defined antifascist work or struggle. For this interview we talk about Strickland's journalism, the experiences of compiling this book, and about understanding elements on the far right that might enhance antifascism, in the so called US, Europe, and elsewhere. Follow him on Twitter @P_Strickland_ for news and upcoming projects! Announcements Show Up For Rayquan Borum! If you are in Charlotte NC tomorrow, Monday the 11th, consider showing up to support Rayquan Borum, who is a Black activist arrested during the Charlotte Uprising, a days long protest to mourn and rage against the police murder of Keith Lamont Scott in 2016. From charlotteuprising.com/statement : "The uprising in Charlotte is a direct response to sustained police and vigilante violence against Black people in this city and across the country: Keith Lamont Scott, Jonathan Ferrell, Aiyana Stanley, Jones, Tyre King, Korryn Gaines, Janisha Fonville, Terence Crutcher and so many more. These are names of victims we know and deeply mourn, understanding there are so many other people who have been unnecessarily taken from us." The arrest of Rayquan Borum was a direct attempt by police to frame Mr. Borum, and he is finally going to trial after 2 years being held in and out of solitary confinement. The trial will be held starts February 11th, and will start at 9:30am in room 5370 at the address 832 East Fourth Street Charlotte, NC, which is the Mecklenburg County Courthouse. You can follow the Charlotte Uprising on twitter, facebook, and tumblr for more ways to get involved and support the folks facing ongoing repression from the Uprising. And here is a link to a useful court support quicksheet made specifically for this trial! Court solidarity needs for Rayquan are ongoing, so plug in when you can. Federal Prison Postal Changes Survey Lawyers & activists doing prisoner support have been concerned with new Federal Bureau of Prisons' rules limiting the type of mail people in prison can receive -- for example, rules that people in federal prison can only get white paper / envelopes, and no cards or drawings.   There is work being done to look into what is going on across the country on this issue. If you have heard anything, they'd love to hear about it.  They are also trying to collect evidence of what is happening at all the different federal facilities.  If you have any of the following (or if you feel comfortable asking for any of these types of things from people in prison you are in contact with), that would be super helpful, including:    Any memos from federal prisons detailing new mail restrictions Any program statements from BoP detailing new mail restrictions Any Institutional Supplements from BoP detailing new mail restrictions Scans of federal mail rejections based on new restrictions (color of letter, color of envelope, use of mailing label, greeting card etc) Scans of envelopes with rejected stickers detailing reason for rejection Scans of grievances from prisoners regarding the mail restrictions If you are interested in potentially working with us around this issue, let the folks at Certain Days Calendar know, and they can reach out with info about their next meeting. Get in touch at: info@certaindays.org Free Tibet celebration in Scotland and around the world If you're listening in Edinburgh, Scotland, there'll be a March on Sunday March 10 from The Mound in support of 60th anniversary of the Tibetan Uprising to the invasion and occupation by the Chinese communist regime forces. On the subject of resistance and the Tibetan Diaspora, there'll be guest speakers making speeches and then a march to Scottish Parliament at Holyrood. TBA there may be a film screening afterwards. The event is scheduled from 12-2pm UTC More can be found on fedbook by searching "Tibetan Community in Scotland". . ... . .. Playlist

Michael and Jonathan Ferrell discuss the economic assumptions that investors must make when purchasing a property.

The quarterly loan officer roundtable is an internal discuss with some of the loan officers at Old Capital on what is working or not working with lending. Jonathan Ferrell is introduced to the listeners. Jonathan joined Old Capital as a Senior Director. Jonathan has over 14 years in banking and is an expert on financing commercial real estate. James Eng gives us macro-economic feedback on how some of the different apartment markets are doing in Texas and the nation. Ricardo Hinojosa shares the importance of property management and getting them engaged early in the transaction. Looking at rental comps in the submarket and then building a an initial rehab budget early on with a qualified property management company, can save a ton of time on a deal that may not work. Ricardo goes onto explain some REFINANCE CASH OUT GUIDELINES for Freddie Mac Small Balance loans. Dave Walls talks about the challenges with affordable housing. Jonathan Ferrell stresses the importance of having the right budget numbers upfront when you apply for the loan because if it is slightly off your reimbursements for draws will have an impact. Check and double check your budget numbers, please. Les Meisl speaks about underwriting guidelines with Freddie Mac Small Balance and the MAXIMUM loan leverage you can expect for a refinance- cash out or even a purchase. Smaller, remote cities in the US can have lower leverage requirements than larger cities. Meaning, max leverage in Chicago will be 80%, but max leverage in Tupelo, Mississippi is 70% with Freddie Mac. One size of town will not fit all! Make sure you contact us to find out what the maximum leverage you can expect. Thanks for joining the conversation. To contact James Eng jeng@oldcapitallending.com To contact Ricardo Hinojosa rhinojosa@oldcapitallending.com To contact Dave Walls dwalls@oldcapitallending.com To contact Les Meisl lmeisl@oldcapitallending.com To contact Jonathan Ferrell jferrell@oldcapitallending.com To receive our FREE 15 page WHITE PAPER REPORT on the 2017 FUNDAMENTALS OF MULTIFAMILY FINANCING 101 and to learn more about upcoming events at Old Capital Speaker Series please visit us at OldCapitalPodcast.com  Are you interested in learning more about how Multifamily Syndications work? Please visit www.spiadvisory.com to learn about Michael's Real Estate Syndication business with SPI Advisory LLC. 

On Sept. 14, 2013, Jonathan Ferrell was shot and killed by a police officer named Randall "Wes" Kerrick in Charlotte, North Carolina. Like a lot of recent police shootings, much of what we know about what happened comes from a video. But the way you see that video depends on who you are. Follow the show @NPREmbedded on Twitter, and follow our host @kellymcevers, and producers @cbndrv, @tomdreisbach, and @jonathanihirsch. Email us at embedded@npr.org

The extra white Christy is challenged by Black Lives Matter and other four word phrases Neighbor Lives Mattera sermon by Rev. J. Christy RamseyClick the title above for a mp3 recording Audio from Truckee Lutheran Presbyterian Church on August 2016, edited from a flawless transcription made by edigitaltranscriptions all errors are mine. Luke 10:25-37 Sermons also avaliable free on iTunes Who is my neighbor? Four words. Four words. Who is my neighbor? But I think you got a little hint of what was really going on when you heard the introduction to the question:, desiring to justify himself, you got a little hint that there might be a hidden word in there. What do you think that hidden word is? The lawyer’s trying to justify himself. I think there might be a hidden word in there: NOT, who’s NOT my neighbor? I think he’s looking not to expand the list but to cut the list down. What’s the absolute minimum neighborness I need to get into heaven, Jesus? I think there’s a little hidden word in there to justify himself. Who is my neighbor? Psst…I mean…who’s not my neighbor? I mean, surely there’s a lot of not-neighbors. There’s a lot of far away people. You could get the list edited down to just a few, right? I mean, if he thought the neighbor list was huge, he could have asked for the the few that didn’t make the list…that would be the shorter list. But he’s hoping the neighbor list has fewer names. What is a neighbor, anyway? The word is absolutely unambiguous. It is very, very old word for “nearby”. It’s a location kind of thing, how close you are to somewhere. And it goes back to ancient Greek about the neighborliness is location. Somebody nearby. Well, that’s been changing over the centuries a little bit. You’ve got Jesus at stake here. But more recently, in the classic Lend-Lease Act, way back before World War II, FDR talked about neighborliness, that Great Britain was our neighbor. A neighbor who had a house fire and needed to borrow our garden hose. By garden hose he meant aircraft carriers and destroyers and armaments and war things. But still, he appealed to the country of understanding Great Britain as our neighbor that needed some help, needed us to lend them something as a neighbor would do, and then we’ll get it back later. Neighborness is some kind of a cultural affinity, perhaps because we speak the same language we’re neighbors. Maybe we’re neighbors because of other things like religion or because we have the same values, or maybe we’re neighbors because of our nation that we live in. Maybe that is kind of the nearness, not just location, but nearness of heart, nearness of values, nearness of outlook, nearness of history, nearness of heritage, nearness of ideology, nearness of nationalism, that kind of near thing. Maybe. There’s a principle of law that actually is the Neighbour Principle. It’s actually in the English common law has been brought over here. Good old Lord Atkin. There was a huge big case, Donoghue v Stevenson, I think it is, but Lord Atkins decided in 1932 the Neighbour Principle Lord Atkin sort of summed it up his idea of a neighborliness. He made his decision based on a new idea of what it meant to be a neighbor– this was not a concept in law before. He came up with the neighbor principle in law that said: that you are required, the person, the actor or non-actor, is required to consider reasonably other people who might be affected by their action or by their inaction in any particular matter. See that switch there, kind of change of perspective of what makes a neighbor. Instead of the qualifications of the other, instead of the qualifications of the other, let me see, let me go through my list and see if you’re my neighbor. Are you this? Are you that? Are you this? Are you that? Are you this close? Are you that close? Lord Atkin sort of changed it, turned it upside down and said, neighborliness is NOT about the other person at all, but about YOU. It’s on you, in your head, to think about other people, to go and to think about neighbor as somebody else. What is a neighbor in your head? You have to say how can I be a neighbor to someone else, NOT how they are a neighbor to me. It is flipped. How am I a neighbor to others? Now, it’s a good thing that we have this concept because that Samaritan, I don’t know if you know Samaritans. As for me…some of my best friends are Samaritans. Back in Jesus’ time, most good people were prejudiced against them. Samaritans were the worst. They were – I bet they were considered to be worse than the hated Romans. If you wanted to say who do you hate the most, eh, Samaritans would be number one, very much. Survey would say Samaritan! DING! right there at the top of the list. Samaritans were heretics. They were half-breeds. They were traitors. They were collaborators. They were filthy. They didn’t know how to worship God right. Take everything you could hate about a person or a group add it up and: Boom, Samaritans. In any shape or stretch of the imagination, they are not neighbor. If you were a Jew back in Jesus’s time, and especially if you’re a lawyer back in Jesus’s time, especially if you’re a good observant righteous Jewish lawyer back in Jesus’s time, Samaritan is not a neighbor in any way, shape, or form. But Jesus tells a story. And you know Jesus, he doesn’t just answer the the question, does he? He doesn’t answer the question who is my neighbor. You see what he asked at the end? He flipped it around, like Lord Atkin. He flipped it around. He didn’t say how who qualified in the story to be a neighbor to you. He said, “Who acted as a neighbor to the person that fell among robbers?” Whoa. The lawyer didn’t bargain for that. See, the lawyer wanted a short list. You know, just maybe the neighborhood, you know, just a few people. Jesus did make a short list! He took that list down to one, the lawyer. Not about other people, but about the lawyer himself. There’s only one person you’ve got to worry about being a neighbor or not, lawyer. It’s you. Are you a neighbor? That’s all you got – that’s it. You’re done. You’re done with the list of qualifications and understandings. All you’ve got to ask is, are you acting as neighbor? And you’re done. Four words. He just had to mess it up. Switched it around. Who was a neighbor to the one who fell among the thieves? Now, you’re going to get upset. Stick with me. What if we had a question to ask Jesus today, who would come up – what would they ask Jesus today? Would they ask the neighbor question? Maybe. I think who would ask those four word question today would be “Black Lives Matter”. Now, were you too upset to notice that was only three words? Right, I’m not going to ask for a show of hands. But just like that other question, there’s an extra word there. Word that we hear that’s not spoken. And the thing that makes “Black Lives Matter” so upsetting is that all of us do not hear that same unspoken word. That even makes it more upsetting. Some of us, some of us hear exclusion. We hear ONLY Black Lives Matter. And we get upset because of the unspoken word that excludes. But that word is not heard by others it is only in your head. Other folks hear a different unspoken word, a focus, Black Lives Matters TOO. Black Lives Matter ALSO. Talking about focus, but not exclusion. Whoa, what would Jesus do? I don’t know. And I’m not Jesus. Good thing. He’d only last three years in the ministry. He’s a failure by the world’s measure. But I was a firefighter for a couple of years. I think we had a motto, a slogan, a rallying cry. Something like “Preserving Life and Property,” I think was on our motto on our side of our trucks. But, you know, I think you could argue that we acted and we lived out, we trained and we moved, and we did everything in our power to live out the unpublished motto that Burning Houses Matter. Burning homes matter. That’s what we focused on, buddy boy. If there was a house burning, that got our attention. We got out of bed. We got up from the dinner table. We left our family, and we went a running to that burning house. I was in the Volunteer Fire Department. You had – four minutes to get to the station and get on a truck or you were walking to the fire. Those trucks were gone in four minutes. So the alarm went off, you better be running. You’d better be in your car. You’d better totally focus on getting there NOW because in four minutes everybody’s going to be gone, and you’re going to be walking to that fire. We dropped everything because burning homes matter. Now, Christy, don’t all homes matter? Don’t we all pay taxes? You burnist! Everybody’s home is just as valuable in their heart as a burning home!! Why do you hate other homes? Why do you pass them by? How come you don’t come up to their house with lights and sirens and dance around with ladders and fountains of water? Why do you do all that for just burning homes? Don’t you like the other houses you just speed on by? Do you hate them? No. It’s Focus. Not exclusion. FDR got it right, and the Samaritan got it right. Lord Atkin got it right. Who’s your neighbor? Who needs you? Who needs a neighbor? That’s is who youryour neighbor. Whoever needs you. That’s who it is. That’s who matters. Have you studied the great philosopher of our time, Louis C.K.? You can buy tickets to a comedy show and see him, but he’s really a philosopher. A lot of philosophers are comedians today, and I understand it pays better than a Ph.D. But he has something that I am just gave to my TechCampers at ComputerCorps two week TechCamp for young teens and I said this to the kids, because, you know, children, can get pretty competative between one another. Louis C.K. told his kids the only time you look in your neighbor’s bowl is to make sure they have enough. You don’t look in your neighbor’s bowl to see if they have more than you. The only time you look in your neighbor’s bowl is to make sure they have enough. And guess what. If they don’t, you give them some of yours. What a world that would be, if we didn’t think about how we measured up to other people, didn’t worry about how much we were getting what we needed, about what we were doing, but instead if we thought about how am I fulfilling what other people need from me, how am I being a neighbor, measuring ourselves instead of others. Now, if you want a graduate course in this understanding, I recommend Love Wins Ministry. Hugh Hollowell is great at very gently and nicely just pricking our big balloon ego right in the spot. And he’s a religious guy, and he knows how to do it. 2010, one of his blog entries was about a frequently asked question: should I give money to panhandlers? That is a big issue, I know, for Christians. And you can argue about it, say, “Oh, I always do.” “Oh, I never do.” And so Hugh talks about that. “You know, I understand, maybe you’re in a hurry. You’re late for an appointment. You don’t have time. And you had to go, you had to go. Maybe all you can do is that look at that other person, acknowledge their presence, and move on.” Hugh says that the thing to do in that situation is whatever the most relational thing you can do. Whatever it is, it’s the most relational that you can do. Because Hugh works with the homeless, and he says the opposite of homeless is community. And he works on homelessness by making relationships. Now, he says – he gives you an out. “If you’re busy, if you’ve got too much to do, if you don’t have time, if you’ve got an appointment, look at the other person, acknowledge their presence, and then later on pray for them.” And then Hugh, he goes, “And then pray for yourself. Pray for your lifestyle that has allowed you to get so busy that you don’t have time to show love and mercy to another human.” Did I warn you? Ouch. It’s not that other person that is needy. You’re needy, too. “But Hugh, should I give money to a panhandler? What if they use it wrong?” “Well, if you can’t give money, if you can’t give any gift without giving it as a gift, without severing the ties to it and letting that person do what [indiscernible], if you can’t give money without feeling that way, then don’t give money. You can buy a bunch of waters and put them in a cooler in your back and hand them out. You know, 24 waters and hand them out to the [indiscernible]. You can buy a gross of socks, couple dozen socks and hand them out to the homeless people. You can do that if you don’t want to give money. But if you don’t want to give money” – here it comes. Oh, Hugh. “If you don’t want to give money because of how they would treat it, consider for yourself why you’re more concerned about your relationship with money than your relationship with another human.” [Whistles] Who is my neighbor? Not about what they’re doing, how they are, what checklists they get on. But am I being a neighbor? Gee, Christy, all you had to do was preach, and you come and bring the whole congregation down. Ugh. Well, then, let’s tell a Mister Rogers story, huh? Yeah, go out with a Mister Rogers story. Mister Rogers, a Presbyterian pastor, member of the Presbytery of Pittsburgh, I had the privilege of being the pastor of the Latrobe Presbyterian Church where his family worshiped, where he grew up in Latrobe. Great, great, great family. Rich, oh, my gosh. So much money. Oh, and thank you Jesus, they loved to help out Latrobe Presbyterian Church, even though he moved to Pittsburgh decades before I arrived for a brief ministry. He has passed away. There are stories going around. Some of them are true, a couple are not. He’s never shot anybody, never was in the military – got to watch those things internet memes. But if Fred Rogers met you he always knew your kid’s name. He always asked when you saw him. I never met him. But people would talk about him around me. And they would just get misty-eyed. They’d talk about even when he was a kid, and the chauffeur was giving him a ride to school every day, he’d pick up his friends and have them go along with them in the limo. He was quite the man. One of the stories about Mister Rogers was that they sent a limo for him, you know, a really nice limo. Mister Rogers wouldn’t ride in the back, sat upfront with the driver. And they went to an executive house for a meeting, and he found out the driver was supposed to stay outside with the car while they were in the house, having their meeting. And he made them bring the limo driver in with them. And on the way home he was sitting in the front seat. Probably a long day for Mister Rogers. And they were talking. And the limo driver says, “Oh, yeah, I live right over there.” And he says, “You do? You do?” And the driver continues, “Yeah, my kids are big fans.” “They are? Oh, could we go visit? It be all right if I went and visit with them?” Well, yeah. And so the limo driver took Mister Rogers to his own home. And they sat, and he met the family, and he played the piano, and they sang neighborhood songs, and THEN he went back to his hotel. That song, you know, in “Mister Rogers’ Neighborhood,” he says, “Since we’re all here anyway, won’t you be a neighbor?” Since we’re here anyway, won’t you be a neighbor. There’s only – it’s a really simple answer, turns out, to who is my neighbor. If you look at it the way Mister Rogers did, Lord Atkins did, if you look at it the way even Hugh Hollowell did, it’s a really simple thing because you only have to answer for one person. And Louis C.K. would remind you that, too. Who is my neighbor? And you twist that around, saying who am I a neighbor to, and work on your own neighborness, instead of how other people should be neighbors. What a wonderful world that would be. Amen. These are the 25 names that are included in the above image: Trayvon Martin, Philando Castile, Eric Garner, Jordan Davis, Oscar Grant, Michael Brown, Tamir Rice, Alton Sterling, Emmett Till, Amadou Diallo, Kimani Gray, Jonathan Ferrell, Renisha McBride, Cynthia Hurd, Susie Jackson, Ethel Lee Lance, Myra Thompson, Depayne Middleton-Doctor, Daniel Simmons, Clementa Pinckney, Sharona Coleman-Singleton, Tywanza Sanders, Laquan McDonald, Cameron Tillman and Tanisha Anderson. Post differs from the recording with some repeats and speaking errors edited out. Transcription done by edigitaltranscription.com Recommended for fast, accurate, and patient transcriptions. Christy Ramsey. Some rights reserved. This work is licensed under aCreative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License.

In this episode, speaking up as White Educators and challenging the silence on issues of social justice - online - and in our schools. We’re also chatting about truly seeing our students & teaching a #BlackLivesMatter curriculum. And in the Lightning Round, we’re pushing the edges of visibility, democratic ideals, bias and indoctrination. Our guest is Greg Michie, a year 7 and 8 public school teacher of Social Studies in Chicago, USA. For full Show-Notes, go to: http://PushingTheEdge.org/26 Episode Run-Down: ▪ How Greg pushes the edge for social justice (1:21) ▪ How we can keep social justice at the forefront of our teaching? (1:41) ▪ Why step outside what's familiar and comfortable to us as teachers (3:54) ▪ Why step outside the norm of silence about race, gender and sexuality in education (5:29) ▪ Challenging the silence - Centering issues of social justice in schools and online (9:09) ▪ How we can step up for social justice on Twitter? (12:26) ▪ Talking about access and equity in Tech Twitter Chats (16:05) ▪ Ending white silence: What can we do as white educators? (18:53) ▪ Truly seeing our students: A powerful moment in Greg's classroom (26:41) ▪ Teaching a #BlackLivesMatter Curriculum (30:12) ▪ Why speaking up is important - even if you think it doesn't affect your community (37:50) ▪ Feeling afraid of speaking up - what you can do (40:50) ▪ The Lightning Round - indoctrination, visibility, urban, cultural proficiency, student centered, unconscious and unexamined bias, democratic ideal (42:41) Related Posts: ▪ Not Being The Outsider by @GregBCurran - http://PushingTheEdge.org/26a ▪ Tips for Ending White Silence in Twitter Chats by @GregBCurran - http://PushingTheEdge.org/26b ▪ Stand with Us for Social Justice in Education by @GregBCurran - http://PushingTheEdge.org/stand-up ▪ What White Educators can learn from Pittsburgh's Police Chief by Greg Michie - http://goo.gl/TpvWlw ▪ Amy Winehouse, Allen Iverson and The Importance of Seeing our Students by Greg Michie - http://goo.gl/794kqE Episode Links: ▪ Greg Michie on Twitter - https://twitter.com/GregoryMichie ▪ What is White Privilege - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_privilege ▪ Pondering (my) White Privilege by Shawn White - https://goo.gl/RqSxUU ▪ Ferguson (Gun-related violence and policing in the USA) - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ferguson_unrest ▪ Teaching about Ferguson (Class-resources) - http://www.tolerance.org/teaching-about-ferguson ▪ Michael Brown - https://goo.gl/chJVuW, Eric Garner - https://goo.gl/j1EPnp ▪ Tamir Rice - https://goo.gl/YSpCgK, Jonathan Ferrell - https://goo.gl/dMS4DV ▪ John Crawford III - https://goo.gl/MWiZio, Walter Scott - https://goo.gl/iXCnZI, Laquan McDonald - https://goo.gl/7Bo6Mo ▪ Beverly Daniel Tatum - https://goo.gl/Lza0Zg ▪ Educolor Website - http://www.educolor.org/ ▪ #BlackLivesMatter Website - http://blacklivesmatter.com/ Additional Resources: ▪ The Pushing The Edge Podcast Archive: http://PushingTheEdge.org or https://goo.gl/yJAZFm ▪ Social Justice Resources: http://PushingTheEdge.org/social-justice-resources ▪ Greg Curran on Twitter - https://twitter.com/GregBCurran

Nathan, Mike, and Mahler talk about life expectancy, saber rattling, corruption, Women in Saudi Arabia, anti-immigrant violence, Bundesverfassungsschutz, prison party packs, mass shootings, Jonathan Ferrell, Arctic visits, cannabis, fossil fuels, David Duke, and more.

The Context of White Supremacy hosts the weekly Compensatory Call-In. We encourage non-white listeners to dial in with their codified concepts, new terms, observations, research findings, workplace problems or triumphs, and/or suggestions on how best to Replace White Supremacy With Justice ASAP. We'll use these sessions to hone our use of words as tools to reveal truth, neutralize White people. We'll examine news reports from the past seven days and - hopefully - promote a constructive dialog. #ANTIBLACKNESS Former Georgia State Senator, former Georgia State Representative, former NAACP chairman, member of the Student Non-Violent Coordinating Committee, first president of the Souther Poverty Law Center and University of Virginia professor Julian Bond died this week. Gus' learned about Racism and the Civil Rights Movement in Bond's class for a semester. The New York Times took this moment to brand his great-grandmother, Jane Bond, a "slave mistress." The sizable number of White chics on the Jonathan Ferrell jury are likely flexing their power, as reports indicate a deadlock in deliberations in the manslaughter trial of Randall Kerrick. Ferguson, Missouri continues to invite protests and confrontation with law enforcement, while last summer's protesters are still facing possible convictions. And a decade later, the calamity of Hurricane Katrina and the levee breach continues... especially for black people. #AnswersForMiriamCarey INVEST in The COWS - http://tiny.cc/ledjb CALL IN NUMBER: 641.715.3640 CODE 564943# SKYPE: FREECONFERENCECALLHD.7676 CODE 564943# The C.O.W.S. archives: http://tiny.cc/76f6p

The Context of White Supremacy hosts our once a month Global Sunday Talk On Racism. This broadcast is specifically designed to encourage participation from listeners outside the US and loyal listeners who're unable to join in our usual evening broadcasts. Channy will update us on how her White mother has been practicing Racism and her observations on Workplace Racism. We'll also review the Jonathan Ferrell manslaughter trial, the significance of the NWA biopic, and Prince's commentary on the exploitation of black artists. Observations on Hurricane Katrina are encouraged throughout the month. INVEST in The COWS - http://tiny.cc/ledjb CALL IN NUMBER: 760.569.7676 CODE 564943# SKYPE: FREECONFERENCECALLHD.7676 CODE 564943# The C.O.W.S. archives: http://tiny.cc/76f6p

The Context of White Supremacy hosts the weekly Compensatory Call-In. We encourage non-white listeners to dial in with their codified concepts, new terms, observations, research findings, workplace problems or triumphs, and/or suggestions on how best to Replace White Supremacy With Justice ASAP. We'll use these sessions to hone our use of words as tools to reveal truth, neutralize White people. We'll examine news reports from the past seven days and - hopefully - promote a constructive dialog. #ANTIBLACKNESS August 2015 marks the 50-year anniversary of the Watts disturbances of 1965, the 10-year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina and the breach of the levees, and one year since the shooting death of Ferguson's Michael Brown Jr. The LAPD terrorism that fueled the Watts conflagration was on display again this week; former detective Frank Lyga has petitioned the court to rejoin the force after being terminated for making racist remarks. Black Louisiana residents have yet to completely recover from the devastation. Things are similarly less than ideal a year later in Ferguson. The manslaughter trial for the 2013 shooting death of Jonathan Ferrell opened this week. Ferrell was described as a weed smoking "zombie" who would not comply with the White officers' commands. DailyKOS reported that, "He was first shot four times, then began to crawl and cry in pain, in which he was shot six more times while crawling, then two more times after he stopped." AnswersForMiriamCarey INVEST in The COWS - http://tiny.cc/ledjb CALL IN NUMBER: 760.569.7676 CODE 564943# SKYPE: FREECONFERENCECALLHD.7676 CODE 564943# The C.O.W.S. archives: http://tiny.cc/76f6p

The Context of White Supremacy hosts the our monthly Global Sunday Talk On Racism. Once a month, Gus and callers will exchange views early in the day. This program is designed specifically to encourage participation from non-white listeners outside the United States as well as any listeners who are unable to call in during our normal broadcast time. We'll hear how Channy's mom has been practicing Racism, and we'll review what the Racists have been doing on her job. We'll offer a thought on the upcoming manslaughter trial in the shooting death of Jonathan Ferrell, and we'll discuss the hemorrhage of counter-racist reading material - Ta-Nehisi Coates, Harper Lee and Jonathan Bryant. INVEST in The COWS - http://tiny.cc/ledjb CALL IN NUMBER: 760.569.7676 CODE 564943# SKYPE: FREECONFERENCECALLHD.7676 CODE 564943# The C.O.W.S. archives: http://tiny.cc/76f6p

BHL: Justice Is Served - In this episode Black Hollywood Live hosts Eboni K. Williams and Mari Fagel discuss legal cases for the week of January 24th, 2014. They discuss the Jonathan Ferrell case, Justin Bieber's arrest and a new study for crime stats. Also joining the conversation is special call-in guest attorney Chris Chestnut (Jonathan Ferrell's attorney).

Tuesday Oct. 1st show we will have brother Mel Reeves on to talk about the fight to get justice for this slain brother. Tune in 5pm Central Standard. To Cal in dial 347-826-9600 press option 1. 

To speak to Gert McMullen about the origins of the AIDS Memorial Quilt is to go back to a scary, sad time in LGBTQ history: San Francisco in the early 1980s. "People were terrified," she explains, "because they didn't know what was happening. People were just dying. They were trying to figure out, why were these gay men dying?" Gert lost many of her friends in the early days of the AIDS epidemic, and thanks to the fear and stigma surrounding the disease, she was often their only visitor. "You would go into the hospitals and there was nobody there and the nurses would put you in a moon suit, basically, to walk in there, because they didn't know what was going to happen," she recalls. No one understood how the disease was transmitted, so many people were afraid to come into close contact with their afflicted loved ones - even during their final days. "I remember a friend of mine who was so lonely and I just kind of touched him, and he just went, 'Oh my god, it's been so long since somebody even touched me.'" Witnessing all this sparked Gert's involvement in LGBTQ activism - involvement which continues today. She began work on the AIDS Memorial Quilt in the 80s and is now its caretaker, taking it on tours so people can see it in person. Twenty panels of the quilt will be on display as part of the 20th Anniversary Louisville AIDS Walk on October 13th. We'll talk more about the walk as it gets closer, but this week we speak to Gert about the quilt itself, and the evolution of AIDS-related activism. In our Juicy Fruit segment, we talk about the Charlotte, NC police shooting of Jonathan Ferrell, who was unarmed and running to them for help after a car accident. We also take a look at the racism that erupted online when Nina Davuluri was crowned Miss America. And we celebrated Queen Latifah's new talk show but wondered why so many folks involved in its debut are widely-rumored to be gay.

BHL: Justice Is Served - In this episode Black Hollywood Live hosts Eboni K. Williams and Mari Fagel discuss legal cases for the week of September 20th, 2013. Mari opens up with this weeks 'Case Of The Week' by talking about Jonathan Ferrell's Shooting Death. Mari switches to talk about this weeks 'On The Docket' cases by discussing Suge Knight Arrest, Rapper 2 Chains Arrest, Gaga Civil Suit, Sean Kingston Rape Civil Suit, and Drake's Jewelry Civil Suit. They round things off by talking about this week's 'Tipping the Scales' question 'Should the African American community pay more attention to mental health issues in order to prevent future mass shootings?'.

HOT TOPICS: Bill Cosby and Don Lemon share perspectives "No-groes" and the Black community.    College football player Jonathan Ferrell murdered by police. J.Cole has a POWERFUL new video dedicated to slain 7 year old Aiyanna Stanely-Jones killed by police in Detroit The newly crowned Miss America is said to "Not represent American values" because of her Indian descent.  Isiah Washington says that his entire life has been down hill ever since he stated an offensive slur.  Mental health access, checks, and the Navy shooting. AND MUCH MORE!! We want to get all of your thoughts, questions, and reactions!  So join us as we put it all ON BLAST! JOIN US as we put it all ON BLAST! 

Jonathan Ferrell, 24, was an unarmed young adult that was killed by a police officer. Ferrell was unarmed and running towards police for help after being involved in a car accident. An officer used a taser first, then shot Ferrell several times. Ferrell died on the scene. Do we still have police officers that serve and protect or that kill first and ask questions later?