Podcasts about kiel institute

With the major geopolitical powers squaring up to each other, tariffs on trade and political turmoil, is it time for economics to focus more on the consequences for the world economy of great power rivalry? A new paper defines the emerging field of geoeconomics, reviews the existing research, and sets out an agenda to fill the gaps in what we know. Christoph Trebesch of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy & Cathrin Mohr of Bonn University talk to Tim Phillips about how economists can collaborate with other disciplines to find fresh insights in this under-researched discipline.  Download CEPR discussion paper 19856, Geoeconomics https://cepr.org/publications/dp19856

The European Union faces a formidable challenge in bolstering its defence capabilities without dependence on the United States, following President Donald Trump's persistent calls for Europe to shoulder a greater share of the burden. Meanwhile, transatlantic trade relations are deteriorating, as Trump imposes punitive tariffs that could potentially impact arms trade between the US and the EU. With plans to raise defence spending to €800 billion, the European Union must navigate the political pressure from the United States to continue procuring American-made weaponry, while addressing the practical necessity of cultivating its own defence industrial base.Currently, many European weapon systems rely on US components, making it difficult for the EU to become entirely self-sufficient in defense production. The Eurofighter and Gripen aircraft, for example, contain a significant American components, and strategic air defense systems like the Patriot are hard to replace.The EU's goal of creating a common defense union is politically challenging, but necessary for enhancing collective security.This involves developing joint command and control structures, similar to those of the US and Russia, which would significantly improve European military effectiveness.However, achieving full independence from US military support may prove to be a daunting task.RFI's Jan van der Made spoke with Alexandr Burilkov of Leuphana University in Lüneburg, Germany, who co-authored a report on the subject, Defending Europe without the US, published by the Bruegel think tank and the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

Bart De Wever a rencontré Volodymyr Zelensky pour la première fois, réaffirmant le soutien de la Belgique à l'Ukraine. Cependant, ce soutien reste limité, avec seulement 1,2 % du PIB consacré à la défense. Malgré une injection prévue de 4 milliards d'euros d'ici juin, la Belgique est souvent considérée comme un modeste contributeur. Selon le Kiel Institute, elle se classe 18ᵉ en termes de soutien global à l'Ukraine, devant la France (24ᵉ) mais derrière l'Allemagne (16ᵉ). L'aide belge inclut des contributions militaires, financières et humanitaires, effectivement en pourcentage du budget national. Comparativement, les États-Unis et le Canada sont respectivement 12ᵉ et 15ᵉ. Bien que l'effort belge semble faible face aux grandes puissances, chaque contribution est jugée précieuse. La question de l'intensification du soutien reste ouverte. Merci pour votre écoute Les coulisses du Pouvoir c'est également en direct tous les jours de la semaine vers 7h40 sur www.rtbf.be/lapremiere Retrouvez tous les épisodes de Les coulisses du Pouvoir sur notre plateforme Auvio.be :https://auvio.rtbf.be/emission/11443 Retrouvez tous les contenus de la RTBF sur notre plateforme Auvio.beRetrouvez également notre offre info ci-dessous :Le Monde en Direct : https://audmns.com/TkxEWMELes Clés : https://audmns.com/DvbCVrHLe Tournant : https://audmns.com/moqIRoC5 Minutes pour Comprendre : https://audmns.com/dHiHssrLes couleurs de l'info : https://audmns.com/MYzowgwMatin Première : https://audmns.com/aldzXlmEt ses séquences-phares : L'Invité Politique : https://audmns.com/LNCogwP L'humour de Matin Première : https://audmns.com/tbdbwoQTransversales : notre collection de reportages infos longue forme : https://audmns.com/WgqwiUpN'oubliez pas de vous y abonner pour ne rien manquer.Et si vous avez apprécié ce podcast, n'hésitez pas à nous donner des étoiles ou des commentaires, cela nous aide à le faire connaître plus largement.

As negotiations to end the Ukraine war rumble on, Donald Trump seems equally interested in talking about the past, repeatedly claiming that the US has given much more aid to Ukraine than Europe has, and that Europe's aid took the form of a loan that they'll be getting back. Emmanuel Macron has publicly contradicted the US President - so who's correct? Nathan Gower speaks to Taro Nishikawa, project lead at the Kiel Institute's Ukraine Support Tracker to get the true picture. Presenter / Producer: Nathan Gower Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Engineer: James Beard

Join us on as we delve into the economic consequences of Europe's evolving geopolitical landscape with our guest Moritz Schularick, President of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. Together, we tackle the pressing issues arising from an imperialistic Russia, uncertain US commitments, and China's strategic maneuvers. Tune in to understand the shifts in global order and what these could mean for Europe's economic and political strategies.

When Chancellor Olaf Scholz fired his finance minister, Christian Lindner this month, Germany's ‘traffic light' government collapsed, an uneasy coalition between parties with differing perspectives, the Social Democrats, the Greens and the Free Democrats.At the heart of the dispute lie deeply opposing views about spending plans and how to fund much needed investment in infrastructure projects such as transport, education, green energy and digital technology, in order to boost Germany's international competitiveness.Falling demand both domestically and overseas for manufacturing goods, the pandemic, war in Ukraine and high energy costs have weakened Germany's economy. So how can Germany reinvigorate its exports and economic growth? On this episode of The Inquiry, we're asking: Does Germany need to reinvent itself? Contributors Michaela Kuefner, Chief Political Editor, DW Deutsche Welle. Marcel Fratzscher, President, German Institute for Economic Research & Professor of Macroeconomics, Humboldt University. Julian Hinz, Professor of International Economics, Bielefeld University & Director, Trade Policy Research Group, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. Monika Schnitzer of Economics & Chairwoman of the German Council of Economic Experts.Presenter: Tanya Beckett Production: Diane Richardson and Matt Toulson Production Co-ordinator: Liam Morrey Technical Producer: Matthew Dempsey Editor: Tara McDermott

In this episode we speak to Dr. Sonja Peterson, Senior Researcher at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. We discuss the implications of introducing an EU ETS 2 for buildings and road transport in terms of welfare effects, predicted prices, and the future role of the land use, land use change and forestry sector (LULUCF). The interview was led by Marie Raude and Lea Heinrich, Research Associates at the Climate Team of the Florence School of Regulation, and recorded during the LIFE COASE workshop on the role of carbon markets in reaching carbon neutrality which took place in June 2024.

We live in uncertain times. Military conflict, including in Europe, is reshaping the geopolitical landscape. People are suffering. And our economies are also affected, which is a specific challenge for central banks. Our co-host Paul Gordon discusses this with Moritz Schularick, President of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank. Published on 5 July 2024 and recorded on 2 July 2024. 1:02 A look at today's geopolitical environment Geopolitical risk can materialise unexpectedly. What are the risks in these uncertain times? How is the geopolitical landscape changing? 2:17 The price of war What does military conflict mean for the economy? And how do events in other parts of the world affect us? 6:08 Challenges for central banks Wars have an impact on our economies, including on inflation. This poses a challenge for central banks. 12:13 Managing geopolitical risks How can we manage geopolitical risks better? Is more independence the only way? 16:17 Our guest's hot tip Moritz Schularick shares his hot tip with our listeners. The ECB Forum on Central Banking https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/conferences/html/20240701_ecb_forum_on_central_banking.en.html Federle, J, A Meier, G Müller, W Mutschler and M Schularick (2024), ‘DP18834 The Price of War‘, CEPR Discussion Paper No. 18834. CEPR Press, Paris & London. https://cepr.org/publications/dp18834 The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism by Martin Wolf European Central Bank https://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html European Banking Supervision https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html

In today's episode we dive into the complex world of state-based international lending. Recent years have seen a resurgence in cross-border state lending, highlighted by the significant financial support Ukraine has received from Western countries and China's growing role as a global lender. Additionally, central bank swap lines have become a common feature after the 2007/08 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Joining us is Christoph Trebesch from the Kiel Institute. Christoph is the Head of the Research Center on International Finance and Macroeconomics and a Professor of Macroeconomics at Kiel University. He will share his expert insights on this critical topic. Don't miss it!

Darf der Arbeitgeber verlangen, dass man für ein Meeting ins Flugzeug steigt? Gianluca Grimalda, Klimaaktivist und engagierter Forscher, verklagt das Kiel Institute for World Economy, seinen alten Arbeitgeber. Heutiger Gast: Marc Zollinger, Korrespondent Italien Host: Marlen Oehler Produzent: Simon Schaffer Weitere Informationen zum Thema: https://www.nzz.ch/gesellschaft/gianluca-grimalda-der-mann-der-gekuendigt-wurde-weil-er-nicht-fliegen-wollte-ld.1781945 «Informiere dich kurz, kompakt und fokussiert über das Weltgeschehen mit unserem täglichen Newsletter, dem «NZZ Briefing». Jetzt kostenlos registrieren und abonnieren unter go.nzz.ch/briefing» https://karriere.nzz.ch/offene-stellen/volontaere-m-w-redaktion-nzz-nzz-am-sonntag/5808993f-d533-42db-909b-aeb8f7f1b8b4

Vous aimez notre peau de caste ? Soutenez-nous ! https://www.lenouvelespritpublic.fr/abonnement Une émission de Philippe Meyer, enregistrée en public à l'Ecole alsacienne le 11 février 2024. Avec cette semaine : Jean-Louis Bourlanges, président de la Commission des Affaires étrangères de l'Assemblée nationale. David Djaïz, entrepreneur, essayiste et ancien secrétaire général du Conseil National de la Refondation. Béatrice Giblin, directrice de la revue Hérodote et fondatrice de l'Institut Français de Géopolitique. Lucile Schmid, vice-présidente de La Fabrique écologique et membre du comité de rédaction de la revue Esprit. REMANIEMENT MINISTÉRIEL Attendue depuis plus de trois semaines, l'achèvement de la composition du gouvernement de Gabriel Attal a été retardé par le refus de François Bayrou d'entrer dans l'équipe. Le dirigeant centriste a invoqué mercredi un désaccord de fond avec les deux têtes de l'exécutif, alors que son nom circulait notamment pour le portefeuille de l'Éducation nationale depuis sa relaxe dans l'affaire des assistants parlementaires du MoDem. La liste rendue publique jeudi soir par un simple communiqué de l'Élysée, comprend en plus des 15 ministres de départ, 2 ministres de plein exercice, 13 ministres délégués et 5 secrétaires d'État. Le chef de l'État souhaitait une équipe resserrée de 30 ministres, au lieu des 41 de l'équipe Borne. Au terme du plus long remaniement de l'histoire de la Ve République, le gouvernement est composé de 35 ministres et secrétaires d'État. Promue il y a moins d'un mois à la tête d'un ministère cumulant Éducation, Sports et JO dans le gouvernement de Gabriel Attal, Amélie Oudéa-Castéra paye des polémiques à répétition en perdant le ministère de l'Éducation nationale, mais conserve celui des Sports et des Jeux olympiques et paralympiques. « Emmené » par Gabriel Attal à Matignon, le dossier éducation sera désormais partagé avec l'ancienne garde des Sceaux Nicole Belloubet. En dépit de la crise ouverte par François Bayrou, le Modem conserve quatre postes. Le parti d'Edouard Philippe passe de 3 à 2 portefeuilles. La plupart des entrants sont des revenants. A Bercy, Olivia Grégoire (Entreprises, Tourisme et Consommation), Thomas Cazenave (Comptes publics) et Roland Lescure (Industrie, et désormais Energie) restent auprès de Bruno Le Maire. Quelques périmètres sont fusionnés pour réduire la taille du gouvernement. Aucun ministre du gouvernement Attal 1 ne vivait plus au sud qu'Angers, ville de Christophe Béchu (Transition écologique). Une Nantaise, une Bourguignonne, une Savoyarde une Héraultaise, Une Marseillaise, font leur entrée. La parité, en revanche, est respectée, même si on peut observer que 8 ministres de plein exercice sur 13 sont des hommes, tandis que 4 secrétaires d'État sur 5 sont des femmes. SI LES ÉTATS-UNIS LACHENT L'UKRAINE, QUE FERA L'EUROPE ? Depuis le début de l'invasion russe il y a près de deux ans, les États-Unis ont alloué plus de 75 milliards de dollars à l'Ukraine, dont 44 milliards d'aide militaire, selon le Kiel Institute. Mais, il y a plusieurs mois, l'administration Biden a prévenu qu'elle n'était plus en mesure de continuer à soutenir militairement l'Ukraine sans l'aval du Congrès, et donc, sans compromis bipartisan. Le 12 décembre, à la Maison-Blanche, aux côtés de son homologue ukrainien, le président américain qui déclarait que l'appui des États-Unis à l'Ukraine se poursuivrait « aussi longtemps que nécessaire » (« as long as it takes »), a nuancé son propos en déclarant que l'aide militaire à Kyiv continuera « aussi longtemps que possible » (« as long as we can »). Certains élus Républicains ont cherché à utiliser cette question pour atteindre un autre objectif : des mesures plus strictes en matière d'immigration et d'asile. Volodymyr Zelensky s'est vainement rendu à deux reprises à Washington pour tenter de convaincre le Congrès de ne pas abandonner l'Ukraine, en dépit des avancées jugées trop modestes de sa contre-offensive : le 6 décembre, les élus Républicains ont bloqué une enveloppe de 106 milliards de dollars comprenant des fonds pour l'Ukraine mais aussi pour Israël, Joe Biden ayant décidé de lier les deux dans un plaidoyer pour la défense de la « démocratie » et de la « sécurité nationale » des États-Unis. Sur les quelque 118 milliards de dollars prévus par ce texte, plus de la moitié est destinée à l'Ukraine, dont 48 milliards de soutien militaire. Mercredi, les sénateurs ont rejeté un texte visant à débloquer de nouveaux fonds pour ces deux pays en guerre, tout en réformant le système migratoire des Etats-Unis. Jeudi, le Sénat a finalement accepté d'examiner un texte sans le volet migratoire. Il pourrait se prononcer prochainement lors d'un vote final puis l'envoyer à la Chambre des représentants, où les Républicains sont majoritaires. A Bruxelles, en revanche, le 1er février, les Européens sont parvenus à contourner l'opposition de Viktor Orbán pour voter un soutien de 50 milliards d'euros à Kyiv. Un nouveau paquet de sanctions contre Moscou est également en préparation. Les États membres ont validé le plan de la Commission pour identifier et mettre sous séquestre les revenus des actifs de la Banque centrale russe immobilisés en Europe (environ 200 milliards d'euros). A terme, les revenus de ces actifs devraient être taxés et les fonds récoltés transférés à Kyiv. Des transferts estimés entre 3 et 5 milliards d'euros par an. L'accord est selon le New York Times « particulièrement important, tant pour l'Ukraine que pour l'Union européenne ». L'enveloppe d'aide - 33 milliards de prêts et 17 milliards de dons sur quatre ans contribuera à maintenir l'économie ukrainienne à flot pour les quatre prochaines années. Le montant total de l'aide des Européens à l'Ukraine dépasse désormais celui de l'aide américaine. L'annonce de ce soutien européen a été immédiatement saluée par Kyiv, comme une « victoire commune » sur la Russie.Chaque semaine, Philippe Meyer anime une conversation d'analyse politique, argumentée et courtoise, sur des thèmes nationaux et internationaux liés à l'actualité. Pour en savoir plus : www.lenouvelespritpublic.fr

L'émission 28 Minutes du 18/12/2023 Christian Sardet, le biologiste qui traque nos cellules au microscope Très tôt, Christian Sardet se fascine pour la cellule : « Mon grand-père m'a donné un microscope. Je devais avoir douze ans et je me suis mis à regarder le plancton des mares dans le petit village des Deux-Sèvres où j'ai été élevé. » Il a donc choisi la voie de la biochimie tout en gardant une grande partie de ses activités autour de l'observation et de la photographie des organismes vivants. Dans « Les cellules, Une histoire de la vie », Christian Sardet nous embarque dans un voyage fascinant dans le temps et l'infiniment petit. Grâce à ses savoirs de vulgarisateur et d'illustrateur, il cherche à faire comprendre, de la façon la plus simple possible, la façon dont fonctionnent les cellules et en quoi elles permettent d'expliquer à quoi tient la vie sur Terre. Le biologiste marin vient nous en parler sur le plateau de 28 Minutes. Sommet européen : une victoire politique pour l'Ukraine… mais une défaite militaire ?  C'est une victoire politique pour Volodymyr Zelensky. Vendredi 16 décembre, le Conseil européen a officiellement ouvert les négociations avec l'Ukraine pour une future adhésion à l'Union européenne. Depuis des semaines, Viktor Orban menaçait de mettre son veto dans le processus. Au moment de la décision, le président hongrois a laissé les vingt-six autres chefs d'État et de gouvernement avancer sans lui. Mais Kiev vit par ailleurs une défaite militaire : la Hongrie s'oppose une nouvelle aide financière de cinquante milliards d'euros. Les Vingt-sept n'ont pas non plus réussi à s'entendre sur un transfert d'armes à hauteur de vingt milliards d'euros. Alors qu'aux États-Unis, les Républicains bloquent le soutien militaire, l'aide globale à l'Ukraine a atteint « son niveau le plus bas », selon le Kiel Institute for the World Economy. Après ce sommet européen, faut-il valoriser la victoire politique ou la défaite militaire ? On en débat.  Enfin, retrouvez également les chroniques de Xavier Mauduit et Marie Bonnisseau !  28 Minutes est le magazine d'actualité d'ARTE, présenté par Elisabeth Quin du lundi au jeudi à 20h05. Renaud Dély est aux commandes de l'émission le vendredi et le samedi. Ce podcast est coproduit par KM et ARTE Radio.   Enregistrement : 18 décembre 2023 - Présentation : Élisabeth Quin - Production : KM, ARTE Radio

L'émission 28 Minutes du 18/12/2023 Sommet européen : une victoire politique pour l'Ukraine… mais une défaite militaire ?  C'est une victoire politique pour Volodymyr Zelensky. Vendredi 16 décembre, le Conseil européen a officiellement ouvert les négociations avec l'Ukraine pour une future adhésion à l'Union européenne. Depuis des semaines, Viktor Orban menaçait de mettre son veto dans le processus. Au moment de la décision, le président hongrois a laissé les vingt-six autres chefs d'État et de gouvernement avancer sans lui. Mais Kiev vit par ailleurs une défaite militaire : la Hongrie s'oppose une nouvelle aide financière de cinquante milliards d'euros. Les Vingt-sept n'ont pas non plus réussi à s'entendre sur un transfert d'armes à hauteur de vingt milliards d'euros. Alors qu'aux États-Unis, les Républicains bloquent le soutien militaire, l'aide globale à l'Ukraine a atteint « son niveau le plus bas », selon le Kiel Institute for the World Economy. Après ce sommet européen, faut-il valoriser la victoire politique ou la défaite militaire ? On en débat avec Frédéric Encel, Patricia Allémonière et Georgina Wright.  Enfin, retrouvez également les chroniques de Xavier Mauduit et Marie Bonnisseau ! 28 Minutes est le magazine d'actualité d'ARTE, présenté par Elisabeth Quin du lundi au jeudi à 20h05. Renaud Dély est aux commandes de l'émission le vendredi et le samedi. Ce podcast est coproduit par KM et ARTE Radio. Enregistrement : 18 décembre 2023 - Présentation : Élisabeth Quin - Production : KM, ARTE Radio

Ces derniers jours, la question de l'interruption de l'aide américaine à destination de l'Ukraine a fait couler beaucoup et suscité l'inquiétude de bon nombre d'observateurs européens. Dans ce nouveau reaction shot, Simon Desplanque décrypte les raisons qui poussent les républicains à s'opposer à ce nouveau paquet d'aide. Il réfléchit ensuite aux implications des querelles de plus en plus vives entre républicains et démocrates sur la sécurité même des Européens. Avec Simon Desplanque Envie d'en savoir plus sur cette question ? - Consultez l'article de Slate (ici) - L'analyse de la BBC avec les chiffres du Kiel Institute for the World Economy (ici)  Suivez le podcast ! Il est désormais sur X/Twitter : @20MPC_podcast    Générique : Léopold Corbion (15 Years of Reflection)  Hébergé par Ausha. Visitez ausha.co/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

Was weiß man über die wahren Einstellungen in der Bevölkerung? Sind immer mehr Informationen überhaupt die Lösung? Warum dringt die Forschung oft nicht durch, wenn sie Politiker und Politikerinnen berät? Hat die Wirtschaft schon mehr begriffen - und können Veggie-Days und CO2-Abdruck-Apps tatsächlich helfen? In dieser Synapsen-Sonderfolge spricht Yasmin Appelhans, Fachjournalistin für Klimathemen und Wissenschaftskommunikation, mit Fachleuten aus Psychologie und Wirtschaftswissenschaft über Verzögerungsdiskurse, soziale Kipppunkte, Co-Benefits und lösungsorientierte Kommunikation: auf einer Podiumsdiskussion aus dem Haus der Wissenschaft in Braunschweig. Denn wir kommen mit dem Podcast auch dahin, wo ihr seid - Live on tape. Gäste: - Psychologe Prof. Dr. Stephan Heinzel von der TU Dortmund (Arbeitsschwerpunkt u.a. Klimakrise und psychische Gesundheit) - Verhaltensökonomin Dr. Christine Merk (Forschungszentrum Global Commons und Klimapolitik/Institut für Weltwirtschaft, Kiel) HINTERGRUNDINFORMATIONEN: Website von Dr. Christine Merk. Kiel Institute: https://www.ifw-kiel.de/de/expertinnen-und-experten/christine-merk/ Website von Prof. Stephan Heinzel, TU Dortmund: https://www.tu-dortmund.de/universitaet/neuberufene-professorinnen/prof-stephan-heinzel/ Das Defizitmodell in der Wissenschaftskommunikation: https://doi.org/10.1177/0963662506071287 Buch zu Klimaemotionen mit Kapitel zu Klimaangst von Stephan Heinzel: https://www.psychosozial-verlag.de/3168 Studie - Wie Klimaangst wissenschaftlich ermittelt werden kann: https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2023.1239425 Studie zur Einstellung der deutschen Bevölkerung zu neuartigen Methoden der Kohlenstoffdioxidentfernung: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00713-9 Einstellung von Menschen anderer europäischer Länder zur Kohlenstoffentfernung: https://www.ifw-kiel.de/publications/carbon-capture-and-storage-publics-in-five-countries-around-the-north-sea-prefer-to-do-it-on-their-own-territory-31758/ Studie zu klimafreundlichen Gerichten in norddeutscher Mensa: https://doi.org/10.3390/su13158669 Climate Challenge an der FU Berlin: https://www.fu-berlin.de/sites/climate-challenge/index.html Website mit vielen Artikeln zur effektiven Klimakommunikation: https://www.klimafakten.de/fakten-besser-vermitteln/aktuelles/klimakommunikation

Was weiß man über die wahren Einstellungen in der Bevölkerung? Sind immer mehr Informationen überhaupt die Lösung? Warum dringt die Forschung oft nicht durch, wenn sie Politiker und Politikerinnen berät? Hat die Wirtschaft schon mehr begriffen - und können Veggie-Days und CO2-Abdruck-Apps tatsächlich helfen? In dieser Synapsen-Sonderfolge spricht Yasmin Appelhans, Fachjournalistin für Klimathemen und Wissenschaftskommunikation, mit Fachleuten aus Psychologie und Wirtschaftswissenschaft über Verzögerungsdiskurse, soziale Kipppunkte, Co-Benefits und lösungsorientierte Kommunikation: auf einer Podiumsdiskussion aus dem Haus der Wissenschaft in Braunschweig. Denn wir kommen mit dem Podcast auch dahin, wo ihr seid - Live on tape. Gäste: - Psychologe Prof. Dr. Stephan Heinzel von der TU Dortmund (Arbeitsschwerpunkt u.a. Klimakrise und psychische Gesundheit) - Verhaltensökonomin Dr. Christine Merk (Forschungszentrum Global Commons und Klimapolitik/Institut für Weltwirtschaft, Kiel) HINTERGRUNDINFORMATIONEN: Website von Dr. Christine Merk. Kiel Institute: https://www.ifw-kiel.de/de/expertinnen-und-experten/christine-merk/ Website von Prof. Stephan Heinzel, TU Dortmund: https://www.tu-dortmund.de/universitaet/neuberufene-professorinnen/prof-stephan-heinzel/ Das Defizitmodell in der Wissenschaftskommunikation: https://doi.org/10.1177/0963662506071287 Buch zu Klimaemotionen mit Kapitel zu Klimaangst von Stephan Heinzel: https://www.psychosozial-verlag.de/3168 Studie - Wie Klimaangst wissenschaftlich ermittelt werden kann: https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2023.1239425 Studie zur Einstellung der deutschen Bevölkerung zu neuartigen Methoden der Kohlenstoffdioxidentfernung: https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00713-9 Einstellung von Menschen anderer europäischer Länder zur Kohlenstoffentfernung: https://www.ifw-kiel.de/publications/carbon-capture-and-storage-publics-in-five-countries-around-the-north-sea-prefer-to-do-it-on-their-own-territory-31758/ Studie zu klimafreundlichen Gerichten in norddeutscher Mensa: https://doi.org/10.3390/su13158669 Climate Challenge an der FU Berlin: https://www.fu-berlin.de/sites/climate-challenge/index.html Website mit vielen Artikeln zur effektiven Klimakommunikation: https://www.klimafakten.de/fakten-besser-vermitteln/aktuelles/klimakommunikation

COVER - Uno studio di metà settembre, pubblicato su Science, rivela che la biosfera è in uno stato pericoloso. Dei 9 aspetti che la rendono vitale, 6 sono già superati, anche l'acidificazione degli oceani è prossima al punto critico. La CO2 atmosferica è a 428 ppm, oltre il limite di sicurezza di 350 ppm. La biodiversità declina rapidamente. Nonostante la calma apparente di ottobre, siamo in una situazione gravissima.https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adh2458?fbclid=IwAR2X8qiHTuGy-XdjdhJ1626zfCLaIMf519LvvxPVW9EpmPUnYuhyedBqtaYCITTÀ - A Stoccolma fra un anno e mezzo c'è il divieto per auto a benzina e diesel. Di Andrea Cavalleroni. Dal 2025, Stoccolma vietará auto a benzina e diesel in parte del centro. Il vice-sindaco Stromgren sottolinea l'urgenza per la salute pubblica, citando danni polmonari e decessi prematuri. Milano è tra le città più inquinate d'Europa, con migliaia di morti evitabili legate all'inquinamento, principalmente dai motori diesel. In contrasto, Stoccolma, con aria di migliore qualità, registra poche vittime.Post di Andrea su LinkedIn: confronto inquinamento dell'aria Milano e Stoccolmahttps://www.linkedin.com/posts/andreacavalleroni_benzina-diesel-diesel-activity-7118163985706737664-T6FEI dati sull'inquinamento di 1.000 città in Europa:https://isglobalranking.org/ ITALIA - Gianluca Grimalda, sociologo al Kiel Institute, ha viaggiato in Papua Guinea senza prendere un aereo, impiegando 45 giorni. Il suo gesto ha attirato l'attenzione mediatica, ma gli ha causato la perdita del lavoro. Grimalda sostiene che i comunicatori del cambiamento climatico sono più credibili se vivono in modo sostenibile. Perché si è arrivati a questa situazione?https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/oct/12/fly-climate-breakdown-germany-climate-change-papua-new-guineahttps://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-019-02463-0Gruppo WA per ricevere SOLO le notifiche delle nuove puntate - https://chat.whatsapp.com/Fa6acDr4ddcFOWj5FShv9RLinkedIn Page: https://www.linkedin.com/company/19026854

Gianluca Grimalda has spent the last six months travelling around the largest island in the Soloman Islands archipelago, finding out how its people have been impacted by climate change. He has been traveling by cargo ship, ferry, trains and coaches, but due to a number of unfortunate incidents, he's delayed his return to the Kiel Institute for World Economy in Germany. The environmental campaigner risks losing his job today because he refuses to fly home. He spoke to Sean about his travels and the effects of climate change.

Gianluca Grimalda has spent the last six months travelling around the largest island in the Soloman Islands archipelago, finding out how its people have been impacted by climate change. He has been traveling by cargo ship, ferry, trains and coaches, but due to a number of unfortunate incidents, he's delayed his return to the Kiel Institute for World Economy in Germany. The environmental campaigner risks losing his job today because he refuses to fly home. He spoke to Sean about his travels and the effects of climate change.

The German government was elected with a plan to build 400,000 new homes a year – but it fell short last year by over 100,000. The country's house building industry is in crisis, with hundreds of companies going into liquidation this year as order books are emptying and demand for new homes has fallen. So why can't Germany build enough homes? A combination of high construction costs caused by inflation since the Covid pandemic, and increases in interest rates in recent years has produced a difficult business environment for a construction sector that is a significant part of the German economy. Along with falling demand, industry experts fear that regulations and bureaucracy are a factor in causing the crisis. Charmaine Cozier hears from: Dirk Salewski President of the German Housebuilding Federation who attended a recent summit hosted by Chancellor Olaf Scholz when the government announced a 14 point plan to revive housing construction. Alice Pitinni is the research director at Housing Europe, the European Federation of Public Co-operative and Social Housing and says there is a growing affordable housing crisis in Europe. Ireland has endured it's own housing crisis in the past - Michelle Norris, is professor of social policy at University College Dublin, and says Ireland has repeated some of Germany's mistakes. Jens Boysen-Hogrefe is a senior economist at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy – he says the country faces a tough situation, that worse is yet to come, but it is not a repeat of the post-reunification boom and bust of the 1990s. CREDITS Presenter - Charmaine Cozier Producer - Phil Reevell. Researcher - Matt Toulson Editor - Tara McDermott (Photo: A construction worker is seen on the roofing for a new residential building in Dortmund, western Germany, on April 18, 2023) (Photo by INA FASSBENDER/AFP via Getty Images)

A climate scientist whose pledge not to travel by plane - leaving him with a long trip back to Germany from where he's been working - has put him at odds with his employer.Dr Gianluca Grimalda is a senior researcher at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) and has spent most of the year in Papua New Guinea studying the relationship between globalisation, climate change and social cohesion. He started his journey to PNG in February overland and by sea and had intended to go back the same way - a 22-thousand kilometre trip that he calculated would create four tonnes of greenhouse gases by plane, but just 400 kilograms by rail, bus and ship. While he was due back in the office last month, his research was delayed - at one point he and his assistants were hostage under machete threat. He's also had his belongings taken and held for ransom. But his employer now says he's due in the office Monday - and if he's not there - his job won't be either. Dr Grimalda joins Kathryn from Papua New Guinea.

Today's episode features three representatives of the SEAO2-CDR project, a European effort to determine strategies for the evaluation and assessment of ocean based carbon dioxide removal. The project's aims range from a strongly interdisciplinary background and focus not only on scientific, but also economic, legal, political, social and ethical  aspects.We are joined by the project's Scientific and Technical Lead, Dr. Christopher Pearce from the National Oceanography Center in the UK.Dr Christine Merk of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, who co-leads WP4 Understanding public and stakeholder perceptions. Dr Patricia Grasse, University of Leipzig and GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, who leads WP7 Integrated assessment of ocean-based CDR deployment. The project is funded through the European Union's Horizon Europe research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 101081362. 

This is Garrison Hardie with your CrossPolitic Daily News Brief for Friday, September 22nd, 2023. Samaritan Ministries Tired of someone else telling you where to go when you have a medical need? Are you ready to take control of your health care? Then it’s time to take a look at Samaritan Ministries. It’s Biblical, affordable health care sharing, with no restrictive networks. Here’s how it works. When a medical need arises, you choose the health care provider that’s right for you, and have a say in the treatment you receive. Send your medical bills to Samaritan Ministries, and they’ll notify fellow members to pray for you and send money directly to you to help you pay those bills. Join 80,000 Christian households across the nation who have already taken control of their health care. Go to samaritan ministries dot org slash cross politic. https://townhall.com/tipsheet/leahbarkoukis/2023/09/21/migrants-traveling-north-trade-n2628700 Massive Number of Migrants Traveling Toward US Border Is Now Affecting International Trade The massive number of migrants heading north, most toward the U.S. border, is now affecting international trade, as a Mexican railway operator was forced to temporarily suspend operations over the hitchhikers. On Tuesday, Ferromex halted 60 trains carrying cargo due to recent spate of injuries and deaths occurring from migrants catching rides. “Despite the grave danger,” some hitchhikers even jumped aboard moving freight cars, the company said. “There has been a significant increase in the number of migrants in recent days,” Ferromex said in the statement, according to AP, noting that the temporary suspension of operations was being done “to protect the physical safety of the migrants.” On Wednesday, President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador called the company's decision "strange" and "unusual." According to Ferromex, the worst problems appeared to be further north. The company said there were about 1,500 people gathered at a rail yard in the city of Torreon. The company also reported about 800 migrants waiting at the freight yards in Irapuato, in the north-central state of Guanajuato. About 1,000 people were reported to be riding freight cars on the train line that connects the northern border city of Ciudad Juarez. Ferromex is Mexico’s largest concessionary rail operator and the impact of the train stoppage will be “very important,” said Ana Bertha Gutiérrez, the international trade coordinator for the Mexican Institute for Competitiveness. According to estimates from the company, the decision to halt the 60 trains translated into a daily loss of about $2.34 million. On Wednesday, some operations had been restarted for routes where there was no "heightened risk," Reuters reported, but company executives are set to meet on Friday with members of the U.S. Customs and Border Protection and members of the Mexican government to discuss next steps. https://www.dailyfetched.com/opening-the-floodgates-greg-abbott-accuses-biden-admin-of-cutting-razor-wire-at-border/ ‘OPENING THE FLOODGATES:’ Greg Abbott Accuses Biden Admin of Cutting Razor Wire at Border The news comes amid tension between Texas officials and the White House over the migrant crisis at the Southern border. Abbott made the announcement Wednesday. “Texas installed razor wire in Eagle Pass to stop illegal crossings,” Abbott explained on X, formerly known as Twitter. “Today the Biden Admin CUT that wire, opening the floodgates to illegal immigrants.” “I immediately deployed more Texas National Guard to repel illegal crossings & install more razor wire,” the Republican governor added after accusing the Biden admin of cutting it at the border. Abbot later posted a letter he sent to Joe Biden, declaring that the President’s policies caused “an invasion at our border,’ The New York Post reported. “We are building a border wall, razor wire & marine barriers,” Abbott wrote. “We are also repelling migrants,” he added. Earlier this year, the Department of Justice (DOJ) sued Texas for installing a buoy barrier, which was designed to prevent illegal immigration, on the Rio Grande. The barrier was part of Abbott’s Operation Lone Star. The DOJ claimed that the barrier obstructed “the navigable capacity of waters of the United States,” adding that it raised humanitarian, environmental, and public safety concerns. A federal judge initially told Texas to move the buoys, but a US Court of Appeals upheld that decision. The case is currently being deliberated through courts. The Daily Fetched reported earlier in September that the Biden administration allowed thousands of illegal immigrants to pour into America through “welded open” floodgates on the Arizona border. The open floodgates in Tuscan are now the busiest point of illegal entry into the country.” A post on Instagram by James Breeden showed illegal aliens arriving “from as far away as Senegal, India, and China.” The Biden administration is also dismantling, disposing, and auctioning portions of the Mexican-American border wall constructed under Donald Trump. Border wall material, including “thick wall tubes,” has been sold on the auction site GovPlanet since April 2022. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/poland-stop-weapons-ukraine-grain-imports Poland to stop providing weapons to Ukraine as dispute over grain imports intensifies Poland will stop providing weapons to Ukraine the Prime Minister announced on Wednesday, due to a growing dispute over grain. “We no longer transfer weapons to Ukraine because we are now arming Poland,” Morawiecki said on social media. While Poland has been one of Ukraine’s staunchest allies since Russia invaded in February 2022, due in part to concerns about further aggression from Moscow should it successfully topple Kyiv, they are currently in dispute over Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia's intention to defy a European Union decision to suspend a ban on Ukrainian grain imports which had been in place to protect the livelihood of local farmers. The ban had been put in place earlier this year by several EU nations to protect local farmers who were worried about being undercut by low prices of Ukrainian grain. Ukraine has filed lawsuits against each of the three countries at the World Trade Organization over their intent to defy the ending of the restrictions. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky referenced the subject during his address to the United Nations General Assembly, saying, “It is alarming to see how some in Europe, some of our friends in Europe, play out solidarity in a political theater — making a thriller from the grain.” The remarks prompted immediate condemnation from Polish leaders, who went as far as to summon the Ukrainian ambassador to Warsaw to share their “strong protest.” Polish Foreign Minister Pawel Jablonski told Ukraine’s ambassador that Zelensky’s statement was “untrue,” given Poland had been “supporting Ukraine since the first days of the war.” He also said, “Putting pressure on Poland in multilateral forums or sending complaints to international tribunals are not appropriate methods of resolving disputes between our countries,” according to a statement from the ministry. The Polish-Ukrainian standoff has escalated ahead of Poland's upcoming elections on Oct. 15. Poland has provided Ukraine with Soviet-era tanks, fighter jets, and other weapons, making it the sixth biggest military donor to Ukraine, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, and it has taken in more than 1.5 million refugees. Now, Poland, Morawieki told Polsat News, "will protect our country." “We are no longer transferring any weapons, because we will now arm ourselves with the most modern weapons.” https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/kevin-mccarthy-volodymyr-zelenskyy-joint-address/2023/09/21/id/1135367/ McCarthy Denied Zelenskyy's Wish to Address Congress House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., declined Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's request to deliver a joint address to Congress, as he did last December, multiple outlets reported. The New York Times first reported the denial Wednesday. Zelenskyy is in Washington, D.C., in part, to beseech lawmakers for more aid in Ukraine's war against Russia. Instead, McCarthy met with Zelenskyy privately along with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., and other committee chairs and ranking members. Zelenskyy met with senators after that meeting. McCarthy's denial, citing time constraints of a busy week, comes amid House Republicans' struggle to beat a Sept. 30 deadline to pass spending bills in order to prevent a government shutdown. The U.S. has sent more than $100 billion to Ukraine in military, financial, and humanitarian aid since Russia invaded in February, 2022, but Republican lawmakers are pushing back on sending any more. In an exclusive interview with Newsmax on Wednesday, Zelenskyy said the cost of Russia prevailing in Ukraine is greater than American dollars. Zelenskyy is also meeting with President Joe Biden at the White House and will visit the Pentagon. https://thenationalpulse.com/2023/09/21/almost-3-4-of-americans-think-the-nation-is-becoming-a-police-state/ Almost 3/4 of Americans Think The Nation is Becoming a Police State Almost three-quarters of Americans – 72 percent – admit to being concerned that the United States is becoming a “police state” engaging in mass surveillance, censorship, ideological indoctrination, and the targeting of political opponents, according to a recent survey from Rasmussen Reports. Of those concerned, 46 percent told pollsters that they were “very concerned” that the state is becoming tyrannical, with 26 percent answering “somewhat concerned.” Only 23 percent of Americans said they were not concerned, with less than one in ten Americans answering “not at all concerned.” Rasmussen also asked the 998 likely American vetoers whether they agreed with the statement: “The FBI is a danger to the freedom and security of law-abiding Americans?” Half of the respondents agreed with the statement, with the majority answered “strongly agree.” Republicans overwhelmingly agreed, with 45 percent answering “strongly agree” and another 23 percent answered “somewhat agree.” A total of 45 percent disagreed with the statement, with 26 percent strongly disagreeing. Democrats felt more strongly that the FBI assists freedom and security as 36 percent strongly disagreed, and a further 22 percent somewhat disagreed. Lastly, Rasmussen asked whether those surveyed: “Which political party is a bigger threat to basic liberties in America: Democrats or Republicans?” Unsurprisingly, the vast majority of both parties – 76 percent of Republicans and 65 percent of Democrats – told pollsters the opposition party was the greater threat. However, more Democrats believe their party is a bigger threat at 26 percent than Republicans at 20 percent.

This is Garrison Hardie with your CrossPolitic Daily News Brief for Friday, September 22nd, 2023. Samaritan Ministries Tired of someone else telling you where to go when you have a medical need? Are you ready to take control of your health care? Then it’s time to take a look at Samaritan Ministries. It’s Biblical, affordable health care sharing, with no restrictive networks. Here’s how it works. When a medical need arises, you choose the health care provider that’s right for you, and have a say in the treatment you receive. Send your medical bills to Samaritan Ministries, and they’ll notify fellow members to pray for you and send money directly to you to help you pay those bills. Join 80,000 Christian households across the nation who have already taken control of their health care. Go to samaritan ministries dot org slash cross politic. https://townhall.com/tipsheet/leahbarkoukis/2023/09/21/migrants-traveling-north-trade-n2628700 Massive Number of Migrants Traveling Toward US Border Is Now Affecting International Trade The massive number of migrants heading north, most toward the U.S. border, is now affecting international trade, as a Mexican railway operator was forced to temporarily suspend operations over the hitchhikers. On Tuesday, Ferromex halted 60 trains carrying cargo due to recent spate of injuries and deaths occurring from migrants catching rides. “Despite the grave danger,” some hitchhikers even jumped aboard moving freight cars, the company said. “There has been a significant increase in the number of migrants in recent days,” Ferromex said in the statement, according to AP, noting that the temporary suspension of operations was being done “to protect the physical safety of the migrants.” On Wednesday, President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador called the company's decision "strange" and "unusual." According to Ferromex, the worst problems appeared to be further north. The company said there were about 1,500 people gathered at a rail yard in the city of Torreon. The company also reported about 800 migrants waiting at the freight yards in Irapuato, in the north-central state of Guanajuato. About 1,000 people were reported to be riding freight cars on the train line that connects the northern border city of Ciudad Juarez. Ferromex is Mexico’s largest concessionary rail operator and the impact of the train stoppage will be “very important,” said Ana Bertha Gutiérrez, the international trade coordinator for the Mexican Institute for Competitiveness. According to estimates from the company, the decision to halt the 60 trains translated into a daily loss of about $2.34 million. On Wednesday, some operations had been restarted for routes where there was no "heightened risk," Reuters reported, but company executives are set to meet on Friday with members of the U.S. Customs and Border Protection and members of the Mexican government to discuss next steps. https://www.dailyfetched.com/opening-the-floodgates-greg-abbott-accuses-biden-admin-of-cutting-razor-wire-at-border/ ‘OPENING THE FLOODGATES:’ Greg Abbott Accuses Biden Admin of Cutting Razor Wire at Border The news comes amid tension between Texas officials and the White House over the migrant crisis at the Southern border. Abbott made the announcement Wednesday. “Texas installed razor wire in Eagle Pass to stop illegal crossings,” Abbott explained on X, formerly known as Twitter. “Today the Biden Admin CUT that wire, opening the floodgates to illegal immigrants.” “I immediately deployed more Texas National Guard to repel illegal crossings & install more razor wire,” the Republican governor added after accusing the Biden admin of cutting it at the border. Abbot later posted a letter he sent to Joe Biden, declaring that the President’s policies caused “an invasion at our border,’ The New York Post reported. “We are building a border wall, razor wire & marine barriers,” Abbott wrote. “We are also repelling migrants,” he added. Earlier this year, the Department of Justice (DOJ) sued Texas for installing a buoy barrier, which was designed to prevent illegal immigration, on the Rio Grande. The barrier was part of Abbott’s Operation Lone Star. The DOJ claimed that the barrier obstructed “the navigable capacity of waters of the United States,” adding that it raised humanitarian, environmental, and public safety concerns. A federal judge initially told Texas to move the buoys, but a US Court of Appeals upheld that decision. The case is currently being deliberated through courts. The Daily Fetched reported earlier in September that the Biden administration allowed thousands of illegal immigrants to pour into America through “welded open” floodgates on the Arizona border. The open floodgates in Tuscan are now the busiest point of illegal entry into the country.” A post on Instagram by James Breeden showed illegal aliens arriving “from as far away as Senegal, India, and China.” The Biden administration is also dismantling, disposing, and auctioning portions of the Mexican-American border wall constructed under Donald Trump. Border wall material, including “thick wall tubes,” has been sold on the auction site GovPlanet since April 2022. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/poland-stop-weapons-ukraine-grain-imports Poland to stop providing weapons to Ukraine as dispute over grain imports intensifies Poland will stop providing weapons to Ukraine the Prime Minister announced on Wednesday, due to a growing dispute over grain. “We no longer transfer weapons to Ukraine because we are now arming Poland,” Morawiecki said on social media. While Poland has been one of Ukraine’s staunchest allies since Russia invaded in February 2022, due in part to concerns about further aggression from Moscow should it successfully topple Kyiv, they are currently in dispute over Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia's intention to defy a European Union decision to suspend a ban on Ukrainian grain imports which had been in place to protect the livelihood of local farmers. The ban had been put in place earlier this year by several EU nations to protect local farmers who were worried about being undercut by low prices of Ukrainian grain. Ukraine has filed lawsuits against each of the three countries at the World Trade Organization over their intent to defy the ending of the restrictions. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky referenced the subject during his address to the United Nations General Assembly, saying, “It is alarming to see how some in Europe, some of our friends in Europe, play out solidarity in a political theater — making a thriller from the grain.” The remarks prompted immediate condemnation from Polish leaders, who went as far as to summon the Ukrainian ambassador to Warsaw to share their “strong protest.” Polish Foreign Minister Pawel Jablonski told Ukraine’s ambassador that Zelensky’s statement was “untrue,” given Poland had been “supporting Ukraine since the first days of the war.” He also said, “Putting pressure on Poland in multilateral forums or sending complaints to international tribunals are not appropriate methods of resolving disputes between our countries,” according to a statement from the ministry. The Polish-Ukrainian standoff has escalated ahead of Poland's upcoming elections on Oct. 15. Poland has provided Ukraine with Soviet-era tanks, fighter jets, and other weapons, making it the sixth biggest military donor to Ukraine, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, and it has taken in more than 1.5 million refugees. Now, Poland, Morawieki told Polsat News, "will protect our country." “We are no longer transferring any weapons, because we will now arm ourselves with the most modern weapons.” https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/kevin-mccarthy-volodymyr-zelenskyy-joint-address/2023/09/21/id/1135367/ McCarthy Denied Zelenskyy's Wish to Address Congress House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., declined Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's request to deliver a joint address to Congress, as he did last December, multiple outlets reported. The New York Times first reported the denial Wednesday. Zelenskyy is in Washington, D.C., in part, to beseech lawmakers for more aid in Ukraine's war against Russia. Instead, McCarthy met with Zelenskyy privately along with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., and other committee chairs and ranking members. Zelenskyy met with senators after that meeting. McCarthy's denial, citing time constraints of a busy week, comes amid House Republicans' struggle to beat a Sept. 30 deadline to pass spending bills in order to prevent a government shutdown. The U.S. has sent more than $100 billion to Ukraine in military, financial, and humanitarian aid since Russia invaded in February, 2022, but Republican lawmakers are pushing back on sending any more. In an exclusive interview with Newsmax on Wednesday, Zelenskyy said the cost of Russia prevailing in Ukraine is greater than American dollars. Zelenskyy is also meeting with President Joe Biden at the White House and will visit the Pentagon. https://thenationalpulse.com/2023/09/21/almost-3-4-of-americans-think-the-nation-is-becoming-a-police-state/ Almost 3/4 of Americans Think The Nation is Becoming a Police State Almost three-quarters of Americans – 72 percent – admit to being concerned that the United States is becoming a “police state” engaging in mass surveillance, censorship, ideological indoctrination, and the targeting of political opponents, according to a recent survey from Rasmussen Reports. Of those concerned, 46 percent told pollsters that they were “very concerned” that the state is becoming tyrannical, with 26 percent answering “somewhat concerned.” Only 23 percent of Americans said they were not concerned, with less than one in ten Americans answering “not at all concerned.” Rasmussen also asked the 998 likely American vetoers whether they agreed with the statement: “The FBI is a danger to the freedom and security of law-abiding Americans?” Half of the respondents agreed with the statement, with the majority answered “strongly agree.” Republicans overwhelmingly agreed, with 45 percent answering “strongly agree” and another 23 percent answered “somewhat agree.” A total of 45 percent disagreed with the statement, with 26 percent strongly disagreeing. Democrats felt more strongly that the FBI assists freedom and security as 36 percent strongly disagreed, and a further 22 percent somewhat disagreed. Lastly, Rasmussen asked whether those surveyed: “Which political party is a bigger threat to basic liberties in America: Democrats or Republicans?” Unsurprisingly, the vast majority of both parties – 76 percent of Republicans and 65 percent of Democrats – told pollsters the opposition party was the greater threat. However, more Democrats believe their party is a bigger threat at 26 percent than Republicans at 20 percent.

EPISODE 1695: In this special episode of KEEN ON from the DLD AI Summit in Munich, Andrew talks to Moritz Schularick, the President of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, about the historic economic significance of today's AI revolution Moritz Schularick has been President of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy and Professor of Economics at the Christian Albrechts University in Kiel since June 2023. His research focuses, among other things, on financial markets and asset prices, questions of monetary macroeconomics and the causes of financial crises and economic inequality. Before his appointment to Kiel, Moritz Schularick was professor of macroeconomics at the University of Bonn, director of the MacroFinance Lab there and professor at Sciences Po (Paris). He is also a member of the ECONtribute excellence cluster and a full member of the Berlin-Brandenburg Academy of Sciences and Academia Europea. During his academic career, he conducted research at, among others, New York University, the University of Cambridge, the Free University of Berlin and in the research department of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Moritz Schularick is the winner of the Leibniz Prize 2022, Germany's most important research prize, awarded by the German Research Foundation (DFG). In 2018 he received the Gossen Prize from the Association for Social Politics, the most important award given by German economists. He is editor of the most important European economic policy journal, “Economic Policy”. He regularly advises central banks, finance ministries, investors and international organizations. Named as one of the "100 most connected men" by GQ magazine, Andrew Keen is amongst the world's best known broadcasters and commentators. In addition to presenting KEEN ON, he is the host of the long-running How To Fix Democracy show. He is also the author of four prescient books about digital technology: CULT OF THE AMATEUR, DIGITAL VERTIGO, THE INTERNET IS NOT THE ANSWER and HOW TO FIX THE FUTURE. Andrew lives in San Francisco, is married to Cassandra Knight, Google's VP of Litigation & Discovery, and has two grown children. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

According to a report published in December by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a German research institute, the United States sent nearly $50 billion in military, humanitarian and financial aid to Ukraine in 2022. As that number continues to climb, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited the U.S. Congress in December to appeal directly to lawmakers and the American people for additional assistance.  

Er zijn boeken volgeschreven door politicologen en historici over de vraag hoe oorlogen precies beginnen. Maar de vraag hoe een oorlog precies tot een einde komt? Daar is veel minder onderzoek naar gedaan. Deze week is bij ons een bijzondere professor van de Universiteit van Rochester te gast, die juist dáár in gespecialiseerd is. Hein Goemans is in Nederland relatief onbekend, maar de grootste buitenlandse media trekken regelmatig aan zijn mouw. Wat is er precies voor nodig om de oorlog in Oekraïne te beëindigen? Goemans geeft een fascinerend inkijkje in een mogelijk eindspel van deze oorlog. Daarnaast hebben Arend Jan en Tim aandacht voor de NAVO-toetreding van Finland, en kijken we kort naar de politieke ontwikkelingen in Spanje.   Fragmenten uit aflevering: -  Op 14 mei zijn we  in Tivoli Vredenburg in Utrecht te vinden bij het NPO Podcast Event! Kaartjes zijn hier te verkrijgen. (https://podcastevent.npo.nl/programma/europa-draait-door) - De Amerikaanse journalist Evan Gershkovich is deze week opgepakt in Rusland. Zijn beste vriend Pjotr Sauer schreef er dit bijzondere artikel over (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/apr/02/friend-evan-gershkovich-no-spy-just-brave-friend-jailed-moscow?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other) - Wil je een brief sturen naar Gershkovich? Dat kan door te mailen naar freegershkovich@gmail.com - Hein Goemans bij Gideon Rachman (https://www.ft.com/content/2126f28b-64dd-402a-b75e-b752e5bfcfd3) - Een uitstekend portret van Goemans in the New Yorker (https://www.newyorker.com/culture/annals-of-inquiry/how-the-war-in-ukraine-might-end) - Wat kunnen we verwachten van de nieuwe Spaanse partij Sumar? (https://www.ft.com/content/0501ea9c-6154-4f04-8d90-ce946293bd68) - De laatste data van het Kiel Institute (https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/?cookieLevel=not-set) - The Chainsmokers & Coldplay - Something Just Like This  (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4u6bWs-ZG0o)

Cấp 950 tỷ đô la tín dụng cho thế giới trong 20 năm, phần lớn trong khuôn khổ dự án Một Vành Đai Một Con Đường, nay Trung Quốc bất đắc dĩ trở thành « chiếc phao cuối cùng » cứu các nước nghèo mang nợ chồng chất. Theo báo cáo mới nhất của AidData, từ năm 2008 đến năm 2021, Bắc Kinh cấp 240 tỷ đô la tín dụng giải cứu. Trung Quốc đứng trước nguy cơ sa vào bẫy nợ của chính mình, buộc tham gia đàm phán đa phương « xóa nợ » cho các nước nghèo. RFI Tiếng Việt mời chuyên gia Isabelle Feng, Đại Học Tự Do Bruxelles, cộng tác viên của trung tâm nghiên cứu về châu Á, Asia Centre - Paris, giải thích thế nào là « tín dụng khẩn cấp giải cứu » các nước mang nợ và những điểm bất thường trong các hợp đồng gắn kết chủ nợ Trung Quốc với các quốc gia cần vay.Giải cứu có chọn lọcMột nhóm chuyên gia thuộc Ngân Hàng Thế Giới (WB), Harvard Kennedy School và Kiel Institute đưa ra những kết luận như sau trong báo cáo AidData công bố hôm 28/03/2023 :Thứ nhất, tương tự như Quỹ Tiền Tệ Quốc Tế,  Trung Quốc đang trở thành « nhà cung cấp tín dụng sau cùng » trước khi một quốc gia tuyên bố vỡ nợ.Thứ hai, trong giai đoạn 2008-2021, Trung Quốc đã 280 lượt phải « tung phao cứu » 22 con nợ sắp « chết đuối » và khoản cứu trợ khẩn cấp đó lên tới 240 tỷ vào cuối năm 2021. Thuộc diện cần được giải cứu khẩn cấp nhất bao gồm đủ loại quốc gia, từ Achentina đến Ai Cập, từ Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ đến Pakistan, từ Lào đến Ukraina hay Sri Lanka … Nhưng Bắc Kinh không hào phóng với tất cả các con nợ như nhau, không phải ai cũng được « đưa vào bờ trước khi bị thác nợ cuốn trôi ». Điểm thứ ba là gánh nặng của gói « tín dụng khẩn cấp đó » càng lúc càng lớn so với các khoản tín dụng chung mà Bắc Kinh dành để cho các nước đang phát triển vay mượn, đặc biệt là trong khuôn khổ các dự án phát triển hạ tầng cơ sở, hợp tác về năng lượng và cùng khai thác khoáng sản trong chương trình Con Đường Tơ Lụa thế kỷ 21 - Một Vành Đai Một Con Đường - kết nối Trung Quốc với toàn cầu. AidData đưa ra hai con số cụ thể : năm 2010, « tín dụng khẩn cấp » tương đương với chưa đầy 5 % tổng số tiền mà Bắc Kinh cho các nước đang phát triển vay mượn. Tỷ lệ này đến cuối 2021 chiếm 60 %.Giá đắt khi Trung Quốc cấp cứu các con nợ Sau cùng, báo cáo AidData lưu ý : ngay cả trong vai trò « người cho vay sau cùng », Trung Quốc vẫn làm giàu trên sự tuyệt vọng của các nền kinh tế đang mắc nợ chồng chất. Vào lúc Quỹ Tiền Tệ Quốc Tế (IMF) cấp tín dụng khẩn cấp với lãi suất 2 %, thì Ngân Hàng Trung Ương Trung Quốc để « giải cứu » các con nợ cho vay với lãi suất là 5 %. Về điểm này, Isabelle Feng Đại Học Tự Do Bruxelles, cộng tác viên trung tâm nghiên cứu về châu Á Asia Centre - Paris nhắc lại việc truyền thông nói đến hiện tượng Trung Quốc hay IMF giải cứu một nền kinh tế mang nợ quá nhiều, nhưng đó chỉ là cách để bơm thêm tín dụng với lãi suất « nhẹ » cho một quốc gia đã mang nợ chồng chất. Trung Quốc đang « cạnh tranh với IMF để đảm nhiệm vai trò của nguồn cho vay vốn cuối cùng » : Isabelle Feng  : « Cứu trợ : bản thân khái niệm này không báo trước điều gì tốt đẹp cả. Tựa như một con tàu bị mắc cạn cần được giải cứu để tiếp tục hành trình. Ở đây là bơm thêm tiền cho các nền kinh tế đã mang nợ nần chồng chất, tránh để một đất nước bị phá sản. Giải pháp cứu nguy đó là cấp thêm tín dụng khẩn cấp. Vấn đề là Trung Quốc không đòi hỏi bên đi vay những cam kết cải tổ hệ thống cơ cấu, cải tổ hành chính hay là tiết kiệm để vực dậy tài chính. Thêm vào đó, Trung Quốc cấp tín dụng khẩn cấp với giá thường là cao hơn nhiều so với lãi suất của IMF ».Dễ đi vay Trung Quốc ? Isabelle Feng nhắc lại, từ 20 năm nay, Trung Quốc trở thành chủ nợ hàng đầu của các nước nghèo, gồm 147 nước, các nước này đã vay của Bắc Kinh 950 tỷ đô la. Riêng tại châu Phi, tình trạng tài chính của các quốc gia trong vùng đã xấu đi do mang nợ Trung Quốc. Khi cấp tín dụng cho bất kỳ một quốc gia nào, Trung Quốc không quan tâm đến những điều kiện của bên đi vay về nhân quyền, quyền lao động, tham nhũng … hay cung cách điều hành đất nước của bên liên quan. Nếu như đấy là những quốc gia bị tham nhũng lũng đoạn và càng lún sâu vào khủng hoảng thì lại càng mắc nợ và Trung Quốc không ngần ngại cho vay thêm dưới dạng tín dụng khẩn cấp như vừa giải thích ở trên. Nói như vậy có nghĩa là đi vay Trung Quốc « dễ chịu hơn » là phải cầu viện đến Quỹ Tiền Tệ Quốc Tế. Chẳng hạn như Hy Lạp, trong các đợt khủng hoảng hồi 2010/2011 đã phải vượt qua nhiều thử thách của bộ ba nhà tài trợ (IMF, Liên Hiệp Châu Âu và Ngân Hàng Trung Ương Châu Âu BCE). Cả ba đã bắt Athens cắt giảm chi tiêu công cộng, giảm thâm hụt ngân sách nhà nước và áp dụng các chương trình thắt lưng buộc bụng một cách triệt để nhằm đổi lấy hai gói hỗ trợ 110 và 130 tỷ euro.Với Trung Quốc thì khác. Trong nghiên cứu được công bố hồi tháng 11/2022 đăng trên tạp chí kinh tế Economic Policy mang tựa đề How China Lends: A Rare Look into 100 Debt Contracts with Foreign Governments  - Trung Quốc cho vay mượn như thế nào, từ 100 hợp đồng của Trung Quốc với các chính phủ quốc tế, các tác giả công trình đã đưa ra một số nhận định. Isabelle Feng tóm tắt :Isabelle Feng  : « Các khoản tín dụng khẩn cấp của Trung Quốc có những đặc điểm như sau : trước hết là thiếu minh bạch. Dù vậy một số nhà nghiên cứu Âu, Mỹ đã tìm thấy được một số tài liệu về những hợp đồng giữa chủ nợ Trung Quốc và các con nợ. Đó là những hợp đồng song phương với những điều khoản bí mật. Chẳng hạn như trong hợp đồng có ghi rõ, bên đi vay không được công khai nhìn nhận là họ yêu cầu Bắc Kinh cấp tín dụng. Đó là trường hợp của Congo : trong một thời gian dài, quốc gia này giấu thông tin họ đi vay của Trung Quốc. Lý do là nếu tính luôn cả chủ nợ Bắc Kinh thì Congo vượt quá ngưỡng IMF quy định về một mức nợ an toàn, tức là một ngưỡng nợ mà quốc gia liên quan có thể thanh toán mà không sợ bị phá sản. Kế tới, hợp đồng để vay tiền của Trung Quốc ghi rõ tín dụng đi vay phải nằm ngoài khuôn khổ chương trình Câu Lạc Bộ Paris - tức là ngoài Trung Quốc ra, không một ai khác có quyền đàm phán hoãn nợ, xóa nợ cho quốc gia liên quan. Bắc Kinh đã đặt điều kiện tín dụng của Trung Quốc không thuộc diện để các thành viên Câu Lạc Bộ Paris có thể phối hợp đàm phán trong một khuôn khổ đa phương ».Khủng hoảng : 300 tỷ đô la nợ khó đòi ?Thế nhưng từ cuối năm 2019, đầu năm 2020, dưới tác động của khủng hoảng y tế, tiếp theo sau là chiến tranh Ukraina, giá năng lượng, lương thực tăng cao. Nhiều nước đi vay Trung Quốc càng lúc càng khó thanh toán khoản nợ đáo hạn. Sri Lanka rơi vào khủng chính trị, và đã nhiều lần sang tận Bắc Kinh cầu viện do Trung Quốc nắm giữ đến 19,6 % nợ nước của Sri Lanka.Isabelle Feng : « Đấy chính là mối nguy hiểm. Giờ đây, giới nghiên cứu Trung Quốc bắt đầu báo động. Trong gần một chục năm, đặc biệt là trong khuôn khổ dự án Con Đường Tơ Lụa mới, Bắc Kinh mở hầu bao cho vay, cấp tín dụng cho các nước nghèo với khả năng thanh toán nợ khá thấp. Để rồi bây giờ mới vỡ lẽ ra rằng Trung Quốc có thể bị thiệt hại trong các khoản giao dịch tài chính này ». Theo báo cáo của AidData, từ năm 2008 đến năm 2021, Trung Quốc cấp 500 tỷ đô la nợ cho các nước đang phát triển, 240 tỷ trong số đó được cấp dưới dạng « tín dụng khẩn cấp » và « 60 % vốn Trung Quốc cho vay hiện do các quốc gia đang trong tình trạng khốn đốn nắm giữ ». Nói cách khác, khoảng 300 tỷ đô la nợ Bắc Kinh đã cấp cho các nước ngoài thuộc diện mang tính rủi ro cao. Trước tình thế đó, lần đầu tiên Trung Quốc chấp nhận đàm phán đa phương về nợ của các nước nghèo.Isabelle Feng : « Tái cơ cấu nợ có nghĩa là nước chủ nợ (ở đây là Trung Quốc) có thể cùng với các chủ nợ khác và bên phải đi vay cùng đàm phán về khả năng xóa, hoãn hay giảm nợ cho bên cần được giúp đỡ. Cho đến năm 2020, Bắc Kinh dứt khoán từ chối giải pháp này và Trung Quốc đã không tham gia các cuộc họp tái cơ cấu nợ do Quỹ Tiền Tệ Quốc Tế và Ngân Hàng Thế Giới đồng tổ chức để giúp đỡ một nền kinh tế nào đó, như là Congo, Venezuela hay Sri Lanka, Pakistan … Nhưng năm 2020 đã có một biến chuyển lớn cùng với dịch Covid. Trung Quốc nhận thấy rằng họ có thể bị rơi vào bẫy nợ do chính mình đã gây ra. Đồng thời, Bắc Kinh không có kinh nghiệm xóa, hoãn, hay giảm nợ . Thí dự như trong trường hợp của Sri Lanka, mắc nợ Trung Quốc quá nhiều, nếu như mà Bắc Kinh khăng khăng từ chối tham gia tiến trình tái cơ cấu nợ cho Sri Lanka, vậy không lẽ để các chủ nợ khác cùng với IMF và World Bank giúp chính quyền Colombo, cho họ vay tín dụng với lãi suất thấp. Để rồi bước kế tiếp là Sri Lanka dùng số tiền đó trả nợ cho Trung Quốc hay sao ? Thành thử Bắc Kinh bắt buộc phải nhập cuộc, để cứu nguy chính những con nợ của mình. Giúp con nợ vẫn có khả năng thanh toán cũng có lợi cho Trung Quốc. Nếu không thì coi như chủ nợ cũng trắng tay … Từ tháng 03/2023, Bắc Kinh tham gia vào các vòng đàm phán tái cơ cấu nợ cho các nền kinh tế đang mang nợ ngập đầu ».Cũng trong cuộc trả lời dành cho RFI Tiếng Việt, Isabelle Feng kết luận : Trung Quốc giờ đây trong thế « đâm lao phải theo lao ». Một mặt, tín dụng Bắc Kinh cho các nước ngoài vay trong khuôn khổ dự án Một Vành Đai Một Con Đường đã giảm đi rất mạnh (năm 2017 là gần 28 tỷ đô la, nhưng cho cả năm 2022 Bắc Kinh chi ra chưa đầy 2 tỷ). Bên cạnh đó, Trung Quốc cũng ý thức được là thiếu kinh nghiệm trong việc quản lý nợ của các nước ngoài.Một lý do khác nữa khiến Trung Quốc bắt buộc phải cứu các nước đang mang nợ mình là yếu tố chính trị. Thí dụ như trong quan hệ với châu Phi, Trung Quốc muốn đưa ra một hình ảnh « khác với các cường quốc thực dân châu Âu » xưa kia, cho nên cũng phải cố gắng « rót thêm tiền » vào châu lục này. Hơn nữa, như chính giám đốc Viện Khoa Học Xã Hội Bắc Kinh, bà Yao Guimei, ghi nhận trong một hội thảo hồi tháng 5/2022 : cho châu Phi vay tín dụng là một cách nhằm « mua chuộc lá phiếu » của châu lục này. Điều đó lại càng có ý nghĩa hơn khi mà Bắc Kinh lao vào một cuộc đối đầu với Mỹ và có tham vọng trở thành một « siêu cường thế giới về mọi mặt ». Cùng lúc, Bắc Kinh bắt đầu phản công trước những chỉ trích của cộng đồng quốc tế về « bẫy nợ Trung Quốc ». Qua việc tham gia các tiến trình đàm phán đa phương « giải cứu » các nước nghèo, bộ Ngoại Giao Trung Quốc một mặt chứng minh Bắc Kinh là một đối tác có trách nhiệm với thế giới, mặt khác đả kích các ngân hàng trung ương châu Âu, Mỹ tăng lãi suất chỉ đạo đẩy các nước nghèo vào cảnh thêm khốn khổ để vẫn phải dựa vào chủ nợ lớn nhất thế giới !

China has significantly expanded its bailout lending as its Belt and Road Initiative blows up following a series of debt write-offs, scandal-ridden projects and allegations of corruption according to a new paper "China as an International Lender of Last Resort" by Sebastian Horn of the World Bank; Brad Parks, a research professor at William & Mary University; Harvard's Carmen Reinhart; and Christoph Trebesch, a director at the Kiel Institute. The researchers found 128 bailout loans worth $240 billion dollars to 20 countries between 2000 and 2021. The vast majority were extended over the last five years, and almost half happened in 2019-2021. Moreover, the researchers found that People's Bank of China swap lines are far more meaningful than direct loans.Here is a link to the paper:  https://tinyurl.com/36pp5569Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor:  https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance:  https://amzn.to/3fn3rvCPatreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceVisit our website: www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoylePatrick Boyle YouTube Channel Support the show

Svet je aktuálne zmietaný rôznymi krízami, ktoré majú veľký dopad aj na Slovensko a našich podnikateľov. Na aktuálnu situáciu či na to, ako sa s ňou dnes vysporiadava naša krajina od politikov až po občanov, a, samozrejme, aj na mnoho ďalšieho nám prišiel povedať svoj názor do novej časti relácie Let's Talk Business Ronald Blaško. Náš hosť získal inžiniersky titul v odbore prevádzka a ekonomika leteckej dopravy na Žilinskej univerzite a ukončil postgraduálny program medzinárodnej ekonómie na Kiel Institute for World Economics v Nemecku. Dnes pôsobí ako výkonný riaditeľ Americkej obchodnej komory na Slovensku (AmCham), ktorá združuje vyše 300 firiem. „Slovensko v tomto smere veľmi výrazne zaostáva, my sme stále takí pasívni čakatelia toho, čo nám nová doba prinesie, a až potom reagujeme." Pre viac rozhovorov o biznise a podnikaní sleduj Let's Talk Business.

THE THESIS: China is at war with us.THE SCRIPTURE & SCRIPTURAL RESOURCES: The CCP is pure evil . . . The Bible is quite clear about wicked leadersTHE NEWS & COMMENT:Mike O'Rourke's CompanyThe China Syndrome—Preventing a Business Secret MeltdownChina has opened police stations in US and Canada to monitor Chinese citizens: ReportReports of Chinese police stations in US worry FBIHackers linked to Chinese government stole millions in Covid benefits, Secret Service says; The theft of state unemployment funds is the first pandemic fraud tied to foreign, state-sponsored cybercriminals that the U.S. government has acknowledged publicly.China set to loosen COVID curbs after week of protestsFBI joins probe into North Carolina countywide blackout as motive for gunfire at power substations unclear; Moore County officials cannot confirm shootings at power substations constitute domestic terrorismHow Much Money Has the U.S. Spent on the Russian Proxy War in Ukraine? Finding out how much the United States has given to Ukraine is no easy task.Eventually I tracked down a database operated by the Kiel Institute, a German think tank. They have been tracking total military and non-military aid to Ukraine since the beginning of the conflict. Their numbers include all aid from Jan. 24, 2022 to Oct. 3, 2022 (the data is scheduled for an update on Dec. 6).According to Kiel, the U.S. has transferred military and non-military aid worth $54.43 billion to the government of Ukraine. The database Kiel has maintained is by far the most granular and detailed accounting of what the U.S. government has provided to Ukraine, including descriptions of the individual batches of military equipment. If you're interested, you can check it out here.It's unfortunate that an American journalist must rely on a German think tank for get this information. It's also unfortunate that Kiel had to copiously piece together this information from various statements made by the Department of Defense, the White House, and the Secretary of State. Because of that, the data is only as accurate as the American federal government's statements to the media.Kiel's estimated $54.43 billion plus the White House's new request for $37 billion would bring the total cost of U.S. involvement in Ukraine to $91,430,000,000.Let's put $91.43 billion into context: the European Union member countries and institutions have provided $30.45 billion to Ukraine, per Kiel. The Jamestown Foundation estimates the Russia's most recent annual defense spending was $77.7 billion. In 2021, the Gross Domestic Product of the state of Maine was $77.9 billion. And, of course, all of this is meaningless without noting that the total U.S. federal debt currently sits at $31.3 trillion.

Hello, and welcome to this week in financial crime. I'm your host, Chris Kirkbride. After a fallow week, there has been an uptick in activity again. Lots of reports published this week, more sanctions activity, plenty on the cyber risks to keep all of us focused, but especially compliance people, and Glencore receives its sentence for bribery for its guilty plea in relation to the English prosecution.These are the links to the principal documents mentioned in the podcast: BBC News, Cyber-attacks on small firms: The US economy's 'Achilles heel'?.Chartered Trading Standards Institute (CTSI), Rogue Traders cash in on victims as the cost-of-living crisis continues.Civil Market Abuse Claim, Financial Conduct Authority v Konstantinos Papadimitrakopoulos and Dimitris Gryparis [2022] EWHC 2792 (Ch).Financial Conduct Authority, FCA prosecutes five individuals for role in 'all-ornothing' investment scheme.Insolvency Service, Directors banned in care home investment scheme.Insolvency Service, East Midlands directors banned for Bounce Back Loan abuse.Institute of Chartered Accountants of Scotland, Anti-Money Laundering Supervision Annual Report.Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Brothers in Arms: The Value of Coalitions in Sanctions Regimes.Serious Fraud Office, Glencore to pay £280 million for ‘highly corrosive' and ‘endemic' corruption.Solicitors' Regulation Authority, Anti-Money Laundering annual report 2021-2022.The Guardian, UK adds two Roman Abramovich ‘business associates' to Russia sanctions list.UK government press release, UK sanctions Russian steel and petrochemical tycoons funding Putin's war.UK House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee, The cost of complacency: illicit finance and the war in Ukraine: Government Response to the Committee's Second Report.UK National Cyber Security Centre, Helping you with Cyber Security – a webinar for Small Organisations.UK National Cyber Security Centre, Annual Review 2022 and Executive Summary.UK Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation, Consolidated List of Financial Sanctions Targets in the UK.UK Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation, General Licence INT/2022/2339452.UK secondary legislation, The Sanctions (Damages Cap) Regulations 2022.U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), Sanctions against 15 Khordad Foundation.Wolfsberg Group, Wolfsberg Financial Crime Principles for Correspondent Banking.

In this episode, Dr. Jakub M. Kwiatkowski, a senior economist within the Global Trade Analytics Suite (GTAS) Forecasting team of S&P Global Market Intelligence talks about the trends in trade shaped by current geopolitical changes and anticipated shifts in trade following international policies and agreements, including: Historical quarterly perspective and evaluate the factors that are currently shaping trade like conflicts, trade sanctions and energetic policy Trade forecast in GTAS for Q3 2022 Trade projections which include shifts in trade caused by Russia-Ukraine conflict, sanctions put on Russia, increasing inflation prices, unstable supply chains, current sanctions put on Taiwan by mainland China and changes caused by new energetic policies with consideration of different affect on various modes of transportation Using GTAS trade predictions, Jakub analyzed the rearrangements in European trade and alternative energy sources for countries after the sanctions implementation on imports from Russia, and discuss the anticipated global trend and the alignment of trade movement with macroeconomic forecasts. **This episode of the podcast is an excerpt from a webinar. Register and listen to the on-demand webinar here: https://ihsmarkit.com/events/trade-outlook-response-to-geopolitical-events/overview.html Speaker Dr. Jakub M. Kwiatkowski - Senior Economist, Global Trade Forecasting, Maritime, Trade & Supply Chain, S&P Global Market Intelligence Jakub is a senior economist within the GTAS Forecasting team, where he contributes to quarterly forecasts of international trade. He specializes in international trade, blue growth and gravity models. He graduated from University of Gdańsk (Ph.D. in economics and finance) and Kiel Institute for the World Economy (Advanced Studies Programe). Jakub's work experience includes both corporate and academic background. Recently, he also works as a researcher at the Economic Faculty at University of Gdańsk. Jakub participated in several research projects founded by the Polish National Science Centre as well as consulting and advisory projects for various government agencies and local authorities. His works concerning international trade, technological progress and corporate finance were published in world leading journals, such as 'Marine Policy'.

Trots nyvunna segrar på slagfältet finns en oro i Ukraina att Europa ska tröttna på att skicka vapen och pengar. Nu kämpar Ukraina på två fronter, både mot Putin och mot krigströttheten. I Konflikt den här veckan åker vi tillbaka till Ukraina.  Ett Ukraina där hoppet om att faktiskt besegra Ryssland på slagfältet nu börjat spira efter en framgångsrik motoffensiv . Men samtidigt med framgångarna på slagfältet tornar orosmolnen upp sig. Kommer Europa orka fortsätt stödja Ukraina i kampen mot Putin? Korrespondent Lubna El-Shanti återvänder till staden Mykolaiv, nära den södra fronten i Ukarina. En stad där kranvattnet åter börjat rinna efter att de våldsamma ryska attackerna nu upphört. En stad där både kamplusten och krigströttheten spirar parallellt. Bland annat hör vi guvernör Vitalyj Kim som berättar att han nu har svårt att sova utan ljudet av artilleribeskjutning.David Rasmusson ringer upp den kända ukrainska krigskorrespondenten Illia Ponomarenko vid Kyiv Independent som beskriver ett krig av eviga artilleridueller och som också menar att den ukrainska motoffensiven har ett delvis politiskt syfte. Den ska visa omvärlden att de vapen och pengar som doneras till Ukraina ger effekt och att det är viktigt att vapenleveranserna fortsätter. Men att sända det budskapet kommer med ett högt pris i människoliv. Programledare Robin Olin intervjuar Christoph Trebesch på forskningsinstitutet Kiel Institute som kartlägger omvärldens stöd till Ukraina. Hans siffror visar att Europa ligger långt efter USA i sitt stöd och att vissa rika Västeuropeiska länder ligger långt ner på listan över de som bidrar till krigsinsatsen.  Ilmari Käihkö, docent i krigsvetenskap vid försvarshögskolan, efterfrågar tydligare besked från Europa. Hur mycket och hur länge man är beredda att understödja Ukraina både ekonomiskt och militärt?   Runtom i världen kämpar ukrainska flyktingar och exilukrainare för att omvärlden inte ska glömma bort kriget. I Helsingborg demonstrerar Måndagsrörelsen på Stortorget och där står bland annat Tanja Urba. Hon kom till Sverige från Ukraina för 13 år sedan och hon tycker sig ha börjat se tecken på trötthet bland helsingborgarna .Mycket fokus har lags på vapenleveranserna till Ukraina, men det ekonomiska stödet är kanske ännu viktigare.  Ekonomikommentator Kristian Åström beger sig till den hemlighetsfulla  Yes-konferensen i Kiev där den ukrainska ekonomin står i fokus, en ekonomi som kan utsättas för hyperinflation.Men ukrainare har varit kreativa när det gäller att få in pengar till krigskassan.  Robin Olin intervjuar en konstnär som bara vill identifiera sig VK. Den anonyme konstnären i Kiev har grundat och leder det digitala museet  Meta History Museum of War. Konstnärer får tolka avgörande händelser i kriget och verken säljs sen på nätauktion som NFT, en form av digital konst som använder blockkedjeteknik. Intäkterna går till krigskassan.Programledare: Robin Olin robin.olin@sr.seReportrar: Lubna El-Shanti, Kristian ÅströmTekniker: Stina FagerbergProducent: David Rasmusson david.rasmusson@sr.se

L'armée ukrainienne enchaîne les succès dans sa contre-offensive menée à l'est du pays. Ces avancées ont été obtenues sur le champ de bataille par les seuls soldats ukrainiens, avec à l'arrière, un vaste soutien militaire des alliés occidentaux. Le budget défense de Moscou équivaut à cinq fois celui de Kiev. Etant donné ce fossé entre les deux pays en guerre, la résistance de l'armée ukrainienne semblait condamnée en février. Mais l'armée a montré sa résilience et le président Zelensky a su mobiliser un soutien international. Une aide essentielle en moyens de combats, en munitions, en renseignement, en technologie. Faute d'avoir voulu s'engager sur le terrain, les alliés ont mis le paquet sur l'effort de guerre, qui s'ajoute aux aides humanitaires et économiques. D'après le dernier comptage publié par le Kiel Institute pour l'économie mondiale au début du mois d'août, tout pays confondu, l'engagement officiel à en faveur de la défense de l'Ukraine dépassait les 40 milliards de dollars. Sans tenir compte des récentes promesses supplémentaires faites par les Etats-Unis, cela représente quatre fois le super budget de la défense ukrainienne voté pour l'année 2022. Les Etats-Unis sont de loin le premier donateur d'aide militaire Plus de la moitié de cette aide, environ 25 milliards de dollars, provient des Etats-Unis. C'est un montant bien supérieur à l'aide militaire américaine fournie en 2020 aux trois pays que Washington soutient de longue date : Israël, l'Egypte, et l'Afghanistan avant le retour des talibans. D'autres sources américaines estiment que cette aide est sans doute beaucoup plus élevée, plutôt de l'ordre de 40 milliards de dollars. Cette aide colossale permet de faire la différence sur le terrain ? C'est ce qui change la donne, déclare ce lundi matin le général Jean-Paul Palomeros, l'ancien commandant suprême des forces de l'Otan. Le volume de l'aide américaine et la rapidité avec laquelle elle a été mise en place, contribuent aux récents succès de l'armée ukrainienne. Et ce n'est pas fini. La semaine dernière Antony Blinken, le secrétaire d'Etat américain en visite surprise à Kiev a promis une nouvelle enveloppe de deux milliards de dollars. L'aide militaire américaine devient pérenne, a-t-il indiqué. Cette nouvelle enveloppe servira à renforcer la défense de l'Ukraine et des voisins « sur le long terme ». La moitié ira à l'Ukraine. Au préalable et en sus, le secrétaire à la Défense qui accompagnait Antony Blinken, a annoncé des livraisons d'armes lourdes, de munitions et de blindés portant sur un montant de 675 millions de dollars. Cette aide massive sert les intérêts stratégiques des Etats-Unis, déterminés à empêcher Vladimir Poutine de gagner cette guerre, et aussi ceux bien sûr de l'industrie américaine de l'armement, le grand bénéficiaire des nouvelles commandes qui affluent. L'effort des Européens, en revanche, s'essouffle, toujours d'après les données analysées par l'institut allemand L'aide militaire fournie par l'Europe décroit depuis le mois d'avril alerte le responsable de l'étude. Tout type d'aides confondu, l'Allemagne est le 13ème donateur, l'Union Européenne le 14ème et la France 20ème. Les pays européens sont concentrés sur la crise énergétique qu'ils subissent en partie à cause de la Russie. Ils ont aussi des stocks d'armes assez limités, c'est ce qu'a mis en lumière cette guerre russe en Ukraine et cela explique en partie leur peu d'empressement. Mais soulignons que l'effort des Européens est conséquent. En valeur absolue, la Pologne est le deuxième donateur d'aide militaire, derrière les Etats-Unis, le Royaume Uni troisième. Et si on pondère les aides en fonction du PIB des pays donateurs, les voisins immédiats de la Russie sont de loin les plus généreux. L'Estonie est le premier d'entre eux puisqu'elle consacre 0,9% de son PIB à l'Ukraine, tout type d'aides confondu, tout comme la Lettonie, la Pologne 0,5% de son PIB. Les Etats-Unis ne sont que 7ème avec 0,2% de leur PIB.

Corsa contro il tempo per spedire i milioni di tonnellate di cereali rimasti bloccati nei porti dell'Ucraina. E' lo scenario previsto dall'analista tedesco Vincent Stamer del Kiel Institute.

2022.03.01 一週財經聚焦： 一， 二月23日，國際金融協會（IIF）發佈的《全球債務監測》報告顯示，2021年全球債務總額首次突破300兆美元，達到了303兆美元的歷史新高。其中八成債務來自新興市場國家，我們要怎麼解讀疫情過後的主權債務問題？ 二， 二月24日，G7領導人就俄羅斯全面入侵烏克蘭舉行了視頻峰會。會後一同發表了聯合聲明。美國總統拜登也在同一天宣佈了一系列旨在削弱俄羅斯經濟、軍事和精英的新制裁措施。 解讀： 1， Reuters Emerging markets drive global debt to record $303 trillion 新興市場讓全球債務達到了創紀錄的303兆美元 2， FT Emerging markets: all risk and few rewards? 新興市場：全部的風險以及幾乎沒有的報酬 3， WSJ Sri Lankan Officials Met With Bankers in Bid to Solve Debt Crisis 斯里蘭卡官員與銀行家們會面尋求解決債務的危機 國際金融協會： Institute of International Finance 全球唯一和最具影響力的全球性金融業協會，總部設在美國華盛頓。其成員包括世界所有的主要商業銀行和金融投資機構，以及資產管理公司、養老基金、評級機構和保險公司等，共計400多家。 成立於1983年，最初的目的是應對上個世紀80年代初不斷擴大的拉丁美洲國家債務危機而設立的。 國際金融協會的數據顯示，2021年全球債務比2020年增加10兆美元。去年全球債務與GDP之比達到了350%左右，另外去年新增的債務八成來自新興市場國家，新興市場國家的債務比2020年增加8.5兆美元，已經超過了95兆美元。 報告顯示不少新興國家今年開始升息，將讓這些國家進行再融資時面對龐大的壓力。 國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）總裁Kristalina Georgieva日前也談到了低收入國家的債務困境問題。她呼籲G20政策制定者通過加強合作盡早結束新冠疫情、促進世界經濟復甦，同時確保各國安全度過貨幣政策緊縮週期。 Georgieva呼籲G20政策制定者在促進世界經濟復甦方面把握幾大優先事項： 1， 其中之一是，確保各國安全度過貨幣政策緊縮週期。美國等主要發達經濟體收緊貨幣政策引發全球金融環境突然收緊，新興市場和發展中國家必須為國際資本流動可能逆轉做好準備。為此，一些借款國應在條件有利時延長債務償還期限，同時避免進一步增加外幣債務。 2， 與此同時，要關注財政可持續性，幫助低收入國家解決債務問題。Georgieva表示，IMF預計約60%的低收入國家已處於債務困境，這些經濟體需要更多國內收入、贈款、優惠融資等，以便快速解決債務問題。 確實，今年1月底正當全球關注美國通膨率飆高、美元指數揚升時，阿根廷悄悄地與國際貨幣基金（IMF）達成了570億美元的貸款協商，以避免迫在眉睫的債務違約。 年初，世界銀行亦表示，接受國際開發協會（IDA）援助的低收入國家，今年應償還債務高達350億美元，較2020年增加45％，可能會出現新的主權債務危機，亟須重組其債務或面臨重組風險，在在顯示全球貧困國家的「無序違約」（disorderly defaults）風險正在上升。 暫不論各國政經體制的差異，單是這兩年大環境的變化，就已讓這些國家難以擺脫債務壓力劇增的困境。 1， 首先，新冠疫情重創低疫苗接種率的貧窮國家，使其社會運作受阻、經濟動能疲弱； 2， 其次，通膨壓力遽升下，各國央行在疫情期間推出的寬鬆貨幣政策將逐步退場，升息已是必然趨勢，高利率成本更不利於開發中國家，特別是貧窮國家的債務償還。加上美國聯準會啟動升息箭在弦上，美元利率上升將使開發中國家貨幣對美元貶值，在該等國家外債多數以美元標示下，美元升值將使其面臨更大的償債壓力。 就債權結構來看，20世紀下半葉，由全球最富裕的22個國家組成、專門為負債國和債權國提供債務安排、債務重組、債務減免、債務撤銷等事宜的「巴黎俱樂部（Paris Club）」，影響力大不如前。 相較於十年前，低收入國家的公共雙邊外部債務有高達三分之二來自巴黎俱樂部的貸款，如今這些國家債務攀升至2,000億美元，巴黎俱樂部借出的貸款卻不到三分之一，取而代之的是中國資金。而且，隨著中國債權國的角色愈來愈吃重，這些國家對求助巴黎俱樂部有所顧忌，以免對中國造成困擾。 再者，對債台高築的中低收入國家而言，其所處的主權債務市場普遍存在資訊不公開且不透明的情況，徒增日後雙方協商還款談判過程的複雜度等，不僅阻礙了其向國際金融市場的融資管道，也削弱了市場投資者信心，並容易使借貸雙方政府的貪腐叢生，徒增金融不穩定風險。例如兩年前西方債權人試圖透過談判解決尚比亞債務問題，但該國拒絕披露對中債務，使西方債權人對其存在一定程度的不信任，也讓該國債務的重組甚難取得進展。 事實上，Covid-19在全球各地危害著政府公共財政。然而，許多新興經濟體從一開始就負債累累。他們被迫在應對疫情上投入了更多的資金，但它們的稅收收入卻大幅下降了，接著他們很快就積累了不可持續的債務。現在，隨著斯里蘭卡、尚比亞和其他幾個經濟體的主權債務賬單的陸續到期，危機初露端倪，這些國家即將接受考驗。 這是一場主權償付能力的危機，而不僅僅是流動性危機，並沒有辦法蒙混過關。國際貨幣基金組織IMF 伴隨著債務重組的這個調整計劃，是一個明智的前進之路。斯里蘭卡政府越早接受不可避免的情況，痛苦就可以越小。處理這種情況就是IMF之所以存在的原因。 然而，為了減少貸款，它還需要在重組150億美元的外債方面取得進展。想這樣做在一定程度上必須取決於中國，在過去20年中，中國通過多家國有銀行成為新興經濟體的一大債權人。北京拒絕接受任何有關其貸款為新興經濟體製造「債務陷阱」的說法。中國是否願意在尚比亞和斯里蘭卡的債務進行消減，將是最重要的一個考驗。 正如世界銀行在其新的《世界發展報告》中指出的那樣，尋求債務重組的國家現在平均有20多個不同的債權人，這還不包括債券的持有人。它們可能還包括一些非傳統的貸款人，比如已經提前支付多年的一些大宗商品必須交付的交易費用。我們需要的是一個現代的巴黎俱樂部和倫敦俱樂部：一個所有債權人都能聚在一起共同分擔痛苦的框架。在形式上來說，這是存在的。 G20有一個債務重組框架，運作與官方債權人組成的巴黎俱樂部（Paris Club）類似，而所謂的集體行動條款在理論上允許私人債券持有人在其中進行協調。 由於很多政府難以償還其對中國進出口銀行和中國國家開發銀行等的債務，中國對很多窮國的貸款熱潮正在惡化之中。那麼，中國將如何處理這些處於違約邊緣的國家？它是否會表現出按照這些發展中國家對自己期待的慷慨 ？還是會堅持拿回自己的債權主張 ？ 好消息是一項對中國債務重組進行統計的新論文發現，當面對無法償還的債務人時，中國基本上只是選擇了順其自然。 世界銀行以及基爾世界經濟研究所（Kiel Institute for The World Economy）的三個學者一篇新論文統計了自2000年以來261起和中國有關的債務減免或重新談判的案例。其中仍然包括了中國商務部推進的149次取消或重新安排的小額無息貸款，另外28個是作為G20應對疫情的一部分，向沒有嚴重債務危機的國家延長了支付的期限。最後的84個則採取了適當的債務重組 當然，疫情可能會迫使中國不得不從寬容走向寬恕。否則，論文的作者擔心債務「積壓」可能會進一步抑制窮國的經濟增長。中國已經加入了G20的債務減免的「共同框架」，旨在使其與巴黎俱樂部保持一致。在成為貧窮國家的大型貸款國的過程中，中國遵循了這個俱樂部主要經濟大國的腳步。它當然也倒霉的重復了一些他們曾經犯下的錯誤。現在，它必須接受這些原則，抹去過去的一些錯誤。而且，現在這個世界沒有人會願意做中國的保護貼。 解讀： 1， BBC Ukraine conflict: Kyiv braces for Russian assault 烏克蘭衝突：基輔為俄羅斯的襲擊做好準備 2， WSJ U.S. Companies Say They Are Monitoring Impact of Russia-Ukraine Crisis 美國企業界表示，他們正在密切關注俄羅斯-烏克蘭危機的影響 3， CNBC Russian invasion of Ukraine to further strain U.S. chip supply for auto, tech industries 俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭使美國的晶片供應進一步緊張 由2021年3月開始綿延至今的烏克蘭危機，終於在經歷俄羅斯軍隊的反覆演習、美國不懷好意的刺激開戰、法德領導人的不停磋商以及美俄領導人的虛偽峰會後，迎來了一個九彎十八拐的高潮轉折。 眼下的俄軍行動仍然撲朔迷離，但無論情勢如何變化，我相信普丁正在刻意改變過去的地緣政治平衡，在全球疫情仍在肆虐、區域分化越演越烈之際，普丁顯然也厭倦了過往那種對西方頻頻示好的虛與委蛇。情勢還會怎麼發展？說實話沒人說得準，但烏克蘭與美國顯然已無力控制，眼下的烏克蘭已被民粹裹脅，極難在政治上做出智慧的決斷；美國則除了表態譴責與制裁外，除了袖手旁觀似乎也是無計可施。 但我更關心的是烏克蘭危機對全球經濟會有什麼樣的影響？以及它又可以給身在台灣的我們什麼借鏡 ？ 站在我的角度，地緣政治一直是世界政治的一個特徵，但全球經濟和金融市場卻始終對此視若無睹。從中國和美國之間的對峙，到拉丁美洲的民粹主義崛起和中東的緊張局勢，企業與投資人只是繼續我行我素，只因為他們深信再差的經濟後果都可以被成功遏制。 但這次的俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭確實可能打破這個模式，因為它將導致全球這個第11大經濟體以及最大的大宗商品生產國與世隔絕。隨著更嚴厲制裁的實施，最直接的全球影響將是更高的通貨膨脹、更低的經濟增長和對金融市場的持續乾擾。而長期影響將是讓全球供應鏈和一體化金融體系的進一步衰弱。 1，大宗商品： 先從大宗商品的衝擊開始。俄羅斯不僅是歐洲天然氣的主要供應商，也是全球最大的石油生產國之一，它更是鎳、鋁和鈀等工業金屬的主要供應來源。這些商品的價格在2022年以來已經處於上漲的趨勢，現在則非常可能還會進一步上漲。布倫特原油在2月24日上午已經突破了每桶100美元的價格，歐洲天然氣價格更是一口氣上漲了30%。商品供應可能還會受到兩種方式的破壞。 如果管道或黑海港口等有形基礎設施遭到了破壞，它們的運輸可能會中斷。或者，西方開始對俄羅斯大宗商品綜合體實施更嚴厲的制裁，可能會阻止西方企業從俄羅斯購買到商品。 2，科技與金融： 第二個衝擊則與科技和全球金融體系有關。美國會對俄羅斯科技企業實施更嚴厲的華為式制裁，並將俄羅斯最大的兩家銀行，俄羅斯的Sberbank和VTB列入黑名單，或試圖切斷俄羅斯與SWIFT的聯繫。 這將拖累俄羅斯的經濟增長，並激怒俄羅斯國內的消費者，並阻礙資金流入和流出俄羅斯。俄羅斯當然會受傷，但俄羅斯的財政需求很可能將轉向中國。對全球經濟而言，隨著自然資源價格的上漲，通貨膨脹很可能會更高，這會加劇全球央行面臨的困境，而且隨著市場動蕩的打擊信心，企業投資可能會嘎然停止。 3，全球分裂： 更長期的影響將是加速全球經濟的分裂。俄羅斯將被迫向東傾斜，更多地依賴與中國的貿易和金融聯繫。在西方，越來越多的政客和企業會問，全球化的一個關鍵原則——你應該與所有人進行貿易，而不僅僅是與地緣政治盟友進行貿易——是否仍然有效，這不僅會發生在俄羅斯身上，其他的獨裁國家也會有所轉變。中國將積極研究西方對俄羅斯的制裁效應，然後更加積極推動自給自足的建設。入侵烏克蘭可能不會在今天引發全球的一個經濟危機，但它將改變未來幾十年全球經濟體系運行的方式。 4，對台灣影響： 而對台灣來說，普丁口中宣示的：烏克蘭長期以來一直是屬於俄羅斯的一部分，是歷史上不可分割的一塊，大家不會覺得和中國大陸對台灣的口徑有著那麼一絲耳熟能詳的感覺嗎？ 但烏克蘭和台灣之間的差異比相似之處更能說明烏克蘭的困境不會在台灣複製，首先是美國的支持程度，大多數美國人在地圖上找不到烏克蘭，烏克蘭不過是美國第67大貿易夥伴。但台灣是美國的第九大貿易夥伴，也是全球供應鏈核心中的半導體超級大國。 而且台灣位於西太平洋「第一島鏈」核心，是美國在該地區的主要盟友日本最關鍵的緩衝區。因此，在台灣議題上，《經濟學人》認為美國對它自己在亞洲信譽的在乎會遠遠超過對遠在歐洲烏克蘭的關注。失去台灣將意味著美國自第二次世界大戰以來領導的亞洲區安全秩序的一個終結，並將讓該地區的大國角色讓位給了中國。 這個結論靠不靠譜我不予置評，因為政治從來不是靠邏輯推斷可以確認的。但今天，烏克蘭的大火看似離我們仍遠，但它衍生的火苗肯定會飄向亞洲，我們擺脫不了由此衍生出來的全球經濟以及科技、金融的後續效應，更不可能永遠抱著隔岸觀火的心態做出事不關己的反應，普丁的棋局末手，我認為只有時間才能夠告訴我們答案。 5，對產業影響： 隨著俄羅斯的政治與軍事動作，各國陸續宣佈制裁措施。美國總統拜登更明言將針對人工智慧、量子計算與航空航太等戰略性產業，實施技術、軟體出口管制，或與盟國制定新版的「外國直接產品規則」，禁止相關企業向俄羅斯出口用於軍事及國家安全的產品，確保使用美國技術或軟體的外國產品也能受到美國監管。 在上述三個主要戰略性產業，美國在人工智慧與量子計算領域發展皆居全球首位，反觀俄羅斯的技術發展仍屬萌芽階段，故美國若對俄羅斯提出技術出口管制，預期將可發揮部分效果；在航空航太領域，美俄兩國之間互有優勢，以低軌衛星為例，美國用戶端數量有近九成屬於民營的商用衛星，俄羅斯則有五成用於軍事用途，美國制裁效果不明顯。 對台灣產業而言，這三個戰略產業的發展，亦屬於起步階段，若要配合美國出口管制政策，宣示意味較高。 不過，我國在半導體產業則具有關鍵地位，掌握多數先進製程產能。因高階運算晶片是AI運算、航太、軍事、資安等應用的核心，必須仰賴先進製程，我國產業未來恐需配合美國政策進行出口管制。 俄羅斯並非我國資訊電子產業的主要出口國家，我國半導體產業、通訊產業與資訊硬體產業出口至俄羅斯的金額比重甚低（皆低於0.5%），對我國出口影響有限。 但在另一方面，我國產業恐將面臨上游供應端的衝擊，主因為半導體製造過程中，部分特殊氣體與材料的供應主要來自俄羅斯與烏克蘭。 對產業界而言，過去三年以來接連面對前述的國際局勢變動，加上新冠肺炎疫情，業者所面臨的系統性風險既多且雜，對其因應環境變動的能力是一大考驗。 如何有效掌握國際政經局勢的變化，管理可能的風險，甚至超前部署、掌握潛在商機，已成為重要的競爭力來源之一，無怪乎台積電已開始關注和延攬國際關係、政治經濟相關人才。 在世界朝兩大強權分立、對抗的演進趨勢下，產業界面臨的政經風險恐非短期現象，建議產、官、學、研各界應進一步建立系統性的觀察、預測體系，提升我國產業因應相關系統性風險的能耐。 《經濟學人》推薦 這是一期讓人可以一目瞭然的封面設計，我們在鮮黃的封底前看見的就是黑色的普丁側面剪影，只是在兇狠的表情上，你可以看見經濟學人用坦克點出了普丁腦中在想什麼？用戰鬥機指明了普丁的不顧一切。上面一排黑色字體 Where will he stop 他會在哪裡停止？ Where will he stop? 他會在哪裡停下來？ Vladimir Putin's war 普丁的戰爭 Russia's president has launched an assault on his neighbour. History will judge him harshly 俄羅斯總統對其鄰國發動了襲擊。歷史將對他作出嚴厲的評判 衝突的發生常常需要一個長期的累積，但戰爭中的第一次突襲發生往往還是令人感到震驚。無論你對這場戰鬥下了多大的決心，但現實總會有所不同。莫斯科時間2月24日上午5點40分，俄羅斯向烏克蘭境內的目標發射了第一枚巡航導彈。在接下來的九個小時內，經濟學人決定撕毀原來的封面故事報道，改而重新關注這個可能是第二次世界大戰以來發生在歐洲的最大戰火，以及它背後所告訴我們的那個令人厭惡現實。從去年年底以來，經濟學人一直在文章和封面上關注著俄羅斯對烏克蘭和西方世界所採取的步步進逼，經濟學人也將繼續在相關應用程序app、網站和雜誌中密切關注俄羅斯的後續行動。本週，隨著俄羅斯軍隊從三個方向湧入了烏克蘭國土，經濟學人決定將封面故事再次聚焦在俄羅斯總統普丁。這場衝突完全是他一手造成的。這場戰爭不是不能避免，這就是普丁自導自演的一個衝突。在接下來的可能戰鬥和苦難中，烏克蘭和俄羅斯的大量鮮血將流淌而出，但每一滴都將沾滿普丁的雙手。普丁對鄰國這個擁有主權的國家發動了一個沒有理由的攻擊。他痴迷於抵禦西方的聯盟組織。他踐踏了支撐21世紀和平的原則。這就是為什麼世界必須為他的侵略付出沈重的代價。 留言告訴我你對這一集的想法： https://open.firstory.me/story/cl07kwdxj0wp60861zxta8jpv?m=comment Powered by Firstory Hosting

Esta semana presentamos el resumen de una pieza titulada How China Lends: A rare look into one hundred debt contracts with foreign governments, publicado en marzo de 2021 por Anna Gelpern y un grupo de colaborados, gracias al patrocinio de AIDDATA, Kiel Institute for The World Economy, Center for Global Development y Peterson Institute for International Economics. El artículo concluye que existen tres rasgos esenciales que diferencian los acuerdos crediticios chinos del resto de sus homólogos internacionales, y estos son: las cláusulas de confidencialidad inusuales; la exigencia de colaterales que controlan ingresos y activos de los deudores; y las cláusulas de cancelación, aceleración y estabilización que les dan a estos prestamistas la posibilidad de influenciar en las políticas internas y externas del país deudor.

Gillian Marcelle, PhD, Managing Member of Resilience Capital Ventures a blended finance and international development expert, leads a conversation on reframing investment and finance using concepts drawn from her work on innovation resilience and systems change. She suggests that the public health crisis provides a unique opportunity to challenge existing orthodoxies in finance and investment. By changing the search algorithm used to identify solutions, and recognizing value of a greater variety of knowledges and experiences, humanity might expand the solution space in the health domain and produce more integrative approaches to wellness and resilience. She is a global citizen with wide networks and various communities of practice drawn from her personal and professional connections in Washington DC., London, Johannesburg and Trinidad & Tobago. Her educational background includes earning degrees in Economics from the University of the West Indies, St Augustine, Trinidad & Tobago, and the Kiel Institute of World Economics, Germany; an MBA with a specialization in high technology management from the George Washington University and a doctorate in innovation policy from the Science and Technology Policy Research Unit, SPRU, University of Sussex. For her scholarly work, she is an affiliated researcher at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology MIT, Cambridge MA, working on public policy issues relating to low-carbon transition.Resilience Capital Ventures website - https://www.resiliencecapitalventures.com/Work on Innovation - https://www.resiliencecapitalventures.com/thought-leadership/innovation-possibilities-in-time-of-crisis

When it comes to global carbon emission is a tax the best form of defence? To make the European Green Deal work, the EU is considering a levy on carbon-intensive goods manufactured beyond its borders. But will a carbon border tax spawn a massive bureaucracy and lead to accusations of protectionism? To find out, Nicholas Barrett talked to Georg Zachmann and Ben McWilliams from Bruegel and Gabriel Felbermayr, President of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy

Ann Cairns, Mastercard Vice Chair, says it's important to introduce girls to STEM careers. Julian Emanuel, BTIG Chief Equity & Derivatives Strategist, says a trade war is not inflationary. Joe Feldman, Telsey Senior Research Analyst, says Walmart is less exposed than other retailers to tensions with China. Paul Donovan, UBS Global Chief Economist, thinks the slowdown in 2018 was somewhat caused by trade tensions. Gabriel Felbermayr, Kiel Institute for the World Economy President, posits that, although a "tariff pass-through"takes time to occur, a full pass-through to the American consumers would be highly unusual.  Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com