Podcasts about Jamestown Foundation

America's drug shortage is impacting millions of lives and threatening the US's national security.  Could China be behind it? Millions are going without the medications they need due to the national drug shortage. Hundreds of drugs that treat cancer, heart disease, type 2 diabetes, high blood pressure and more are in serious short supply causing widespread panic and suffering. Twenty-nine-year-old Samantha, who has been on ADHD medication for the past 14 years, says she hasn't been able to get her prescription filled for months and it's turning her life up-side-down and negatively impacting her work and relationships. Phil, an independent pharmacist, says the shortage may force him to close his business. By lunchtime almost every day, Phil says he has at least 20 prescriptions he can't fill. But the shortage isn't just compromising Americans' health, it's exposed a dangerous vulnerability in our national security. More than 90% of prescriptions written in the US come from India and China. Are American lives being put at risk because of the US's overreliance on drugs and pharmaceutical ingredients from China, a foreign adversary? Many experts say yes. Dan Izhaky, CEO of United Safety Technology, raised his hand to make PPE on American soil during Covid. He even received a nearly $100 million award from the US government to get production off the ground. But Dan says, 3 years later, he has nothing to show for it. He says it's been impossible for his company to compete against Chinese companies backed by China's communist regime. China-US relations expert and President of The Jamestown Foundation, Peter Mattis, says the Chinese government is deliberately malicious and capable of callous disregard for those in foreign countries and even their own people. This episode, “Our Dangerous Dependency on China” asks three questions: 1) The current drug shortage is happening during peacetime but what if tensions between the US and China rise and the Chinese government decides to stop sending lifesaving medication and pharmaceuticals to America? 2) Is America prepared for the next global pandemic? 3) Why aren't critical products like PPE and pharmaceuticals being manufactured in the US? Thank you to our sponsor: Preserve Gold: Get a FREE precious metals guide that contains essential information on how to help protect your accounts. Text “DRPHIL” to 50505 to claim this exclusive offer from Preserve Gold today.  

Alegătorii din Ungheni, R Moldova, care votau până acum pentru opțiunea europeană, au furnizat la referendum o mare surpriză. Despre situația complicată din Republica Moldova discutăm cu Vladimir Socor, Senior Fellow la Jamestown Foundation din Washington, expert în spațiul ex-sovietic și în securitatea Republicii Moldova. ”Guvernul proeuropean de la Chișinău a avut o prestație foarte bună, ținând cont de contextul actual, dar această performanță nu este receptată de populație... Nu este vorba doar de dezinformarea rusească...”

IntroIn April 2024, my colleague and I (both affiliated with Peking University) conducted a survey involving 510 students from Tsinghua University and 518 students from Peking University—China's two top academic institutions. Our focus was on their perspectives regarding the frontier risks of artificial intelligence.In the People's Republic of China (PRC), publicly accessible survey data on AI is relatively rare, so we hope this report provides some valuable insights into how people in the PRC are thinking about AI (especially the risks). Throughout this post, I'll do my best to weave in other data reflecting the broader Chinese sentiment toward AI. For similar research, check out The Center for Long-Term Artificial Intelligence, YouGov, Monmouth University, The Artificial Intelligence Policy Institute, and notably, a poll conducted by Rethink Priorities, which closely informed our survey design.You can read the full report published in the Jamestown Foundation's China Brief [...] The original text contained 11 images which were described by AI. --- First published: September 2nd, 2024 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gxCGKHpX8G8D8aWy5/survey-how-do-elite-chinese-students-feel-about-the-risks-of --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Survey: How Do Elite Chinese Students Feel About the Risks of AI?, published by Nick Corvino on September 2, 2024 on The Effective Altruism Forum. Introduction In April 2024, my colleague and I (both affiliated with Peking University) conducted a survey involving 510 students from Tsinghua University and 518 students from Peking University - China's two top academic institutions. Our focus was on their perspectives regarding the frontier risks of artificial intelligence. In the People's Republic of China (PRC), publicly accessible survey data on AI is relatively rare, so we hope this report provides some valuable insights into how people in the PRC are thinking about AI (especially the risks). Throughout this post, I'll do my best to weave in other data reflecting the broader Chinese sentiment toward AI. For similar research, check out The Center for Long-Term Artificial Intelligence, YouGov, Monmouth University, The Artificial Intelligence Policy Institute, and notably, a poll conducted by Rethink Priorities, which closely informed our survey design. You can read the full report published in the Jamestown Foundation's China Brief here: Survey: How Do Elite Chinese Students Feel About the Risks of AI? Key Takeaways Students are more optimistic about the benefits of AI than concerned about the harms. 80 percent of respondents agreed or strongly agreed with the statement that AI will do more good than harm for society, with only 7.5 percent actively believing the harms could outweigh the benefits. This, similar to other polling, indicates that the PRC is one of the most optimistic countries concerning the development of AI. Students strongly believe the Chinese government should regulate AI. 85.31 percent of respondents believe AI should be regulated by the government, with only 6 percent actively believing it should not. This contrasts with trends seen in other countries, where there is typically a positive correlation between optimism about AI and calls for minimizing regulation. The strong support for regulation in the PRC, even as optimism about AI remains high, suggests a distinct perspective on the role of government oversight in the PRC context. Students ranked AI the lowest among all possible existential threats to humanity. When asked about the most likely causes of human extinction, misaligned artificial intelligence received the lowest score. Nuclear war, natural disaster, climate change, and pandemics all proved more concerning for students. Students lean towards cooperation between the United States and the PRC as necessary for the safe and responsible development of AI. 60.7 percent of respondents believe AI will not be developed safely without cooperation between China and the U.S., with 25.68 percent believing it will develop safely no matter the level of cooperation. Students are most concerned about the use of AI for surveillance. This was followed by misinformation, existential risk, wealth inequality, increased political tension, various issues related to bias, with the suffering of artificial entities receiving the lowest score. Background As the recent decision (决定) document from the Third Plenum meetings in July made clear, AI is one of eight technologies that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership sees as critical for achieving "Chinese-style modernization (中国式现代化)," and is central to the strategy of centering the country's economic future around breakthroughs in frontier science ( People's Daily, July 22). The PRC also seeks to shape international norms on AI, including on AI risks. In October 2023, Xi Jinping announced a "Global AI Governance Initiative (全球人工智能治理倡议)" ( CAC, October 18, 2023). Tsinghua and Peking Universty are the two most prestigious universities in the PRC (by far), many of whose graduates will be very influential in sh...

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Survey: How Do Elite Chinese Students Feel About the Risks of AI?, published by Nick Corvino on September 2, 2024 on The AI Alignment Forum. Intro In April 2024, my colleague and I (both affiliated with Peking University) conducted a survey involving 510 students from Tsinghua University and 518 students from Peking University - China's two top academic institutions. Our focus was on their perspectives regarding the frontier risks of artificial intelligence. In the People's Republic of China (PRC), publicly accessible survey data on AI is relatively rare, so we hope this report provides some valuable insights into how people in the PRC are thinking about AI (especially the risks). Throughout this post, I'll do my best to weave in other data reflecting the broader Chinese sentiment toward AI. For similar research, check out The Center for Long-Term Artificial Intelligence, YouGov, Monmouth University, The Artificial Intelligence Policy Institute, and notably, a poll conducted by Rethink Priorities, which closely informed our survey design. You can read the full report published in the Jamestown Foundation's China Brief here: Survey: How Do Elite Chinese Students Feel About the Risks of AI? Key Takeaways Students are more optimistic about the benefits of AI than concerned about the harms. 80 percent of respondents agreed or strongly agreed with the statement that AI will do more good than harm for society, with only 7.5 percent actively believing the harms could outweigh the benefits. This, similar to other polling, indicates that the PRC is one of the most optimistic countries concerning the development of AI. Students strongly believe the Chinese government should regulate AI. 85.31 percent of respondents believe AI should be regulated by the government, with only 6 percent actively believing it should not. This contrasts with trends seen in other countries, where there is typically a positive correlation between optimism about AI and calls for minimizing regulation. The strong support for regulation in the PRC, even as optimism about AI remains high, suggests a distinct perspective on the role of government oversight in the PRC context. Students ranked AI the lowest among all possible existential threats to humanity. When asked about the most likely causes of human extinction, misaligned artificial intelligence received the lowest score. Nuclear war, natural disaster, climate change, and pandemics all proved more concerning for students. Students lean towards cooperation between the United States and the PRC as necessary for the safe and responsible development of AI. 60.7 percent of respondents believe AI will not be developed safely without cooperation between China and the U.S., with 25.68 percent believing it will develop safely no matter the level of cooperation. Students are most concerned about the use of AI for surveillance. This was followed by misinformation, existential risk, wealth inequality, increased political tension, various issues related to bias, with the suffering of artificial entities receiving the lowest score. Background As the recent decision (决定) document from the Third Plenum meetings in July made clear, AI is one of eight technologies that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership sees as critical for achieving "Chinese-style modernization (中国式现代化)," and is central to the strategy of centering the country's economic future around breakthroughs in frontier science ( People's Daily, July 22). The PRC also seeks to shape international norms on AI, including on AI risks. In October 2023, Xi Jinping announced a "Global AI Governance Initiative (全球人工智能治理倡议)" ( CAC, October 18, 2023). Tsinghua and Peking Universty are the two most prestigious universities in the PRC (by far), many of whose graduates will be very influential in shaping the cou...

A recent terror attack on Moscow's Crocus City Hall by ISIS-K has tested Russia's regional relations and tolerance for torture at home. On this episode of The Eastern Front, Giselle, Dalibor, and Iulia welcome Paul Goble, distinguished senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation. What effect, if any, has the March attacks had on Russian President Vladimir Putin's strategic calculus? How is Russia's promotion of “traditional values” perceived in former Soviet Republics, particularly in Central Asia? What is the significance behind the Russian Orthodox church's political alignment with the Putin regime?Show notes: Sign up for The Eastern Front‘s bi-weekly newsletter here and follow us on X here.

В специальном выпуске подкаста «Украина. Самое важное» говорим с аналитиком Jamestown Foundation Ксенией Кирилловой о том, как Кремль и пропагандистские медиа в России развернули информационную атаку на Украину и обвиняют Киев в причастности к теракту в «Крокус Сити Холл».

In this episode of DISINFORMATION WARS, host Ilan Berman speaks with former Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty president Thomas Kent regarding the strategic logic underlying Russia's weaponization of disinformation - and the things Western governments can do to neutralize Russia's informational advantage. Bio: Thomas Kent teaches and consults on Russian affairs, journalism, and the problems of propaganda and disinformation. President of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty until 2018, he now teaches at Columbia University and consults for governments, NGOs, and news organizations. He is a senior fellow of The Jamestown Foundation. Previously, he was Moscow bureau chief for the Associated Press, head of the AP's international news coverage, and editor for standards and ethics. Mentioned in this episode: Ilan Berman, Challenging Moscow's Message: Russian Disinformation and the Western Response (AFPC Press, 2023), https://www.amazon.com/Challenging-Moscows-Message-Disinformation-Response/dp/1956450890/ref=sr_1_1?crid=276TCMDHX4HT7&keywords=challenging+moscow%27s+message&qid=1703733780&sprefix=challenging+moscow%27s+message%2Caps%2C74&sr=8-1 Thomas Kent, Striking Back: Overt and Covert Options to Combat Russian Disinformation (Jamestown Foundation, 2020), https://jamestown.org/product/striking-back/ Thomas Kent, How Russia Loses: Hubris and Miscalculation in Putin's Kremlin (Jamestown Foundation, 2023), https://jamestown.org/product/how-russia-loses/

The Cognitive Crucible is a forum that presents different perspectives and emerging thought leadership related to the information environment. The opinions expressed by guests are their own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of or endorsement by the Information Professionals Association. During this episode, Tom Kent returns to the Cognitive Crucible to discuss his latest book: How Russia Loses: Hubris and Miscalculation in Putin's Kremlin. Vladimir Putin's efforts to build influence abroad have succeeded in many places, leading some to see him as a master tactician whose skills are practically unbeatable. “How Russia Loses” takes a more skeptical approach, arguing that Russian influence operations have also been plagued by overconfidence and misjudgments, often repeating themselves in case after case. Thomas Kent's book looks at six case studies where Russian fortunes suffered temporary or long-term reversals, and the reasons for those setbacks – from Russia's own weaknesses to nimble responses by pro-democracy actors. The book spans Russian operations in Ukraine, Ecuador, South Africa and North Macedonia, as well as Moscow's efforts to promote the Nordstream 2 pipeline and its Sputnik COVID vaccine. Kent offers an extensive analysis of common threads that have weakened Russian influence operations, and how the West can use this knowledge to respond more effectively to future efforts by Moscow. Resources: Cognitive Crucible Podcast Episodes Mentioned #10 Tom Kent on Striking Back #105 Tom Kent on Persuasion in the Developing World #25 Alan Kelly on Mapping the Strategies of IO Actors #151 Daniel Runde on Chinese Soft Power [Free Download] How Russia Loses: Hubris and Miscalculation in Putin's Kremlin by Tom Kent Taxonomy of Influence Strategies Link to full show notes and resources https://information-professionals.org/episode/cognitive-crucible-episode-177 Guest Bio:  Thomas Kent teaches and consults on Russian affairs, journalism, and the problems of propaganda and disinformation. President of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty until 2018, he now teaches at Columbia University and consults for governments, NGOs, and news organizations. He is a senior fellow of The Jamestown Foundation and an associate fellow of Slovakia's GLOBSEC. Previously, he was Moscow bureau chief for The Associated Press, head of AP's international news coverage, and editor for standards and ethics. His first book, Striking Back: Overt and Covert Options to Combat Russian Disinformation, was published by Jamestown in 2020. About: The Information Professionals Association (IPA) is a non-profit organization dedicated to exploring the role of information activities, such as influence and cognitive security, within the national security sector and helping to bridge the divide between operations and research. Its goal is to increase interdisciplinary collaboration between scholars and practitioners and policymakers with an interest in this domain. For more information, please contact us at communications@information-professionals.org. Or, connect directly with The Cognitive Crucible podcast host, John Bicknell, on LinkedIn. Disclosure: As an Amazon Associate, 1) IPA earns from qualifying purchases, 2) IPA gets commissions for purchases made through links in this post.

Hãng tin Anh Reuters ngày 06/10/2023 loan tin là các quan chức Việt Nam và Trung Quốc đang chuẩn bị cho chuyến thăm của chủ tịch Tập Cận Bình tới Hà Nội có thể vào cuối tháng 10 hoặc đầu tháng 11.  Cho tới nay, đã đầu tháng 11, cả Hà Nội và Bắc Kinh đều không có thông báo gì về chuyến đi này. Nhưng nếu có diễn ra thì đây sẽ là chuyến thăm cấp nhà nước đầu tiên của ông Tập Cận Bình đến Việt Nam kể từ năm 2017. Chuyến đi này cũng sẽ diễn ra đúng vào dịp kỷ niệm 15 năm quan hệ đối tác chiến lược toàn diện Trung Quốc-Việt Nam.Việc chủ tịch Trung Quốc chấp nhận đi thăm Việt Nam phải chăng cho thấy Bắc Kinh đã không có phản ứng gay gắt về việc Việt Nam nâng cấp quan hệ với Mỹ lên thành đối tác chiến lược toàn diện nhân chuyến thăm Hà Nội vào tháng 9 của tổng thống Mỹ Joe Biden?Trả lời phỏng vấn RFI Việt ngữ ngày 25/10/2023, nhà nghiên cứu Vũ Xuân Khang, Đại học Boston, Hoa Kỳ, nhận định:  “Đúng vậy. Nguyên nhân chính Bắc Kinh không có phản ứng gay gắt về việc Việt Nam nâng cấp quan hệ với Mỹ lên đối tác chiến lược toàn diện là do các nỗ lực ngoại giao của Việt Nam để điều hòa quan hệ với Trung Quốc, ít nhất là từ tháng 6 cho đến nay. Thủ tướng Phạm Minh Chính đã đến thăm Trung Quốc vào cuối tháng 6 khi tàu sân bay Ronald Reagan ghé thăm Đà Nẵng. Ông Chính cũng có chuyến thăm Trung Quốc lần hai vào tháng 9 tại Nam Ninh chỉ vài ngày sau khi tổng thống Joe Biden thăm Hà Nội. Chủ tịch nước Võ Văn Thưởng mới đây cũng đã đến Bắc Kinh và hội kiến chủ tịch Tập Cận Bình. Cả ba chuyến viếng thăm trên đều thể hiện một thông điệp chính của Việt Nam là Hà Nội mong muốn hai nước tiếp tục duy trì quan hệ ngoại giao nồng ấm và Việt Nam không có ý định ngả theo Mỹ để chống Trung Quốc. Nếu chủ tịch Tập Cận Bình đến thăm Việt Nam, đây sẽ là một chỉ dấu rất lớn là các nỗ lực trấn an Trung Quốc của Việt Nam đã thành công. Đây cũng sẽ là chuyến đi đáp lễ 3 chuyến đi của lãnh đạo Việt Nam, đặc biệt là chuyến đi của tổng bí thư Nguyễn Phú Trọng vào tháng 10, tháng 11/2022.” Nhà phân tích Sebastian Strangio của trang mạng The Diplomat ( Nhật Bản ) cũng có cùng nhận định: “Thật khó để tưởng tượng rằng Việt Nam đã không báo trước cho Bắc Kinh về việc nâng cấp quan hệ với Mỹ và trấn an họ rằng hành động này không nhắm vào Trung Quốc. Tổng thống Biden cũng đã nhấn mạnh chuyến thăm Việt Nam của ông là nhằm mục đích xây dựng các mối quan hệ của Hoa Kỳ trên khắp châu Á, chứ không phải để kiềm chế Trung Quốc. Nhưng sau khi Việt Nam nâng cấp quan hệ với Hoa Kỳ lên thành “đối tác chiến lược toàn diện”, đặt Hoa Kỳ ngang hàng với Trung Quốc và Nga, Trung Quốc có thể cảm thấy cần phải đòi Việt Nam chấp nhận một bản “nâng cấp” mới trong quan hệ song phương.”Theo hãng tin Reuters, trước chuyến viếng thăm của ông Tập Cận Bình, Hà Nội và Bắc Kinh đang thảo luận về việc có thể đưa cụm từ “cộng đồng chung vận mệnh” vào tuyên bố chung để mô tả mối quan hệ song phương.Cụm từ “cộng đồng chung vận mệnh” đã trở nên “thịnh hành” sau khi ông Tập lên nắm quyền vào năm 2012, thể hiện mức độ quan hệ song phương cao nhất đối với chính quyền Tập Cận Bình. Trung Quốc đã thiết lập “cộng đồng chung vận mệnh” với Lào vào năm 2017 và Cam Bốt vào năm 2018, sau đó là với Miến Điện trong chuyến thăm cấp nhà nước của ông Tập Cận Bình đến nước này vào tháng 1/2020. Mặc dù Bắc Kinh rõ ràng muốn Việt Nam gia nhập nhóm các quốc gia “có chung vận mệnh” với Trung Quốc, hai nguồn tin nói với Reuters rằng các quan chức Việt Nam thận trọng về việc thêm cụm từ đó vào tuyên bố chung. Trung Quốc được cho là đã từng tỏ ý muốn tuyên bố một cộng đồng chung vận mệnh với Việt Nam trong chuyến thăm cấp nhà nước của ông Tập Cận Bình vào năm 2017, nhưng Hà Nội lúc đó đã bác bỏ.Trả lời phỏng vấn RFI Việt ngữ, nhà nghiên cứu Vũ Xuân Khang cho rằng dù không muốn “cộng đồng chung vận mệnh” với Trung Quốc, thật ra Việt Nam cũng khó mà thoát khỏi vòng ảnh hưởng của Bắc Kinh: “Theo chính sách ngoại giao của Trung Quốc, cụm từ "cộng đồng chung vận mệnh" là dành cho những nước mà Trung Quốc coi là những đối tác quan trọng. Việc Việt Nam có đưa cụm từ "cộng đồng chung vận mệnh" vào tuyên bố chung hay không thật ra cũng không quá quan trọng. Về bản chất, Việt Nam cũng không có nhiều lựa chọn trong quan hệ với Trung Quốc, khi Trung Quốc đã cho Việt Nam thấy rằng các nỗ lực thoát Trung trong quá khứ của Việt Nam đã thất bại, nhất là sau khi Việt Nam phải đồng ý bình thường hóa quan hệ với Trung Quốc trên thế yếu vào năm 1991, sau khi đồng minh Liên Xô đã không còn khả năng giúp Việt Nam thoát Trung như giai đoạn từ 1978 đến 1988.Trung Quốc muốn một Việt Nam trung lập nằm trong ảnh hưởng của Trung Quốc. Do vậy, nếu Việt Nam có thể đảm bảo với Trung Quốc rằng Việt Nam không có ý định chống Trung Quốc, Trung Quốc cũng không cần phải ép Việt Nam. Nếu Việt Nam chấp nhận đưa cụm từ “cộng đồng chung vận mệnh” vào tuyên bố chung thì có thể hiểu Hà Nội muốn thể hiện với Trung Quốc rằng quan hệ hai nước vẫn đang phát triển tốt đẹp và là kết quả của các chuyến thăm cấp cao giữa hai nước từ tháng 6 đến nay, và cũng nhằm để cân bằng bước “nhảy cóc” từ đối tác toàn diện lên đối tác chiến lược toàn diện với Mỹ vào tháng 9 vừa qua.”Tuy nhiên, Trung Quốc vẫn muốn cho Việt Nam thấy tính chất đặc biệt trong quan hệ giữa hai nước. Theo Tân Hoa Xã, trong cuộc gặp với chủ tịch nước Võ Văn Thưởng ở Bắc Kinh ngày 20/10 nhân diễn đàn “Vành đai và Con đường”, ông Tập Cận Bình kêu gọi Việt Nam “đừng quên cội nguồn của tình hữu nghị” giữa hai quốc gia Cộng sản này. Về phần mình, trong cuộc hội kiến với Thái Kỳ, Chánh Văn phòng Trung ương Đảng Cộng sản Trung Quốc, ông Võ Văn Thưởng cũng nhìn nhận Việt Nam và Trung Quốc là hai nước “tương đồng về thể chế chính trị, con đường phát triển và mục tiêu xây dựng chủ nghĩa xã hội”.  Ông khẳng định: “ Việt Nam coi trọng việc củng cố và phát triển quan hệ Đối tác hợp tác chiến lược toàn diện với Trung Quốc, coi đây là lựa chọn chiến lược và ưu tiên hàng đầu trong đường lối đối ngoại độc lập, tự chủ, đa phương hóa, đa dạng hóa của Việt Nam”.Trong bài viết đăng trên trang web của Viện nghiên cứu Đông Nam Á Yusof Ishak ( ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute ), một nhà nghiên cứu của Viện này, Lye Liang Fook, nhấn mạnh đến quan hệ giữa hai đảng Cộng sản Trung Quốc và Việt Nam: “Việt Nam dường như đang xích lại gần hơn với Hoa Kỳ với việc nâng cấp quan hệ gần đây lên thành quan hệ đối tác chiến lược toàn diện. Tuy nhiên, không nên đánh giá quá cao diễn biến này, vì quan hệ Việt Nam - Trung Quốc, đặc biệt là quan hệ giữa hai đảng, vẫn bền chặt. ( … ).  Trung Quốc và Việt Nam đều có lợi ích trong việc đảm bảo cho các đảng cộng sản cầm quyền của họ duy trì sự thống trị.”Lye Liang Fook nhắc lại: “Vào thời điểm quan hệ song phương xuống thấp, Hà Nội và Bắc Kinh đã dựa vào mối quan hệ giữa hai đảng để kiểm soát những bất đồng và đưa quan hệ trở lại đúng hướng. Sau những đụng độ căng thẳng trong sự cố giàn khoan Hải Dương 981 năm 2014, tổng bí thư Nguyễn Phú Trọng đã cử đặc phái viên Lê Hồng Anh, Ủy viên Bộ Chính trị, tới Bắc Kinh vào tháng 8/2014 để hàn gắn quan hệ. Đổi lại, Tập Cận Bình đã cử ông Du Chánh Thanh (Yu Zhengsheng) đến thăm Việt Nam vào tháng 12/2014. Việc Du Chánh Thanh là nhân vật đứng hàng thứ tư trong Đảng cộng sản Trung Quốc cho thấy quan hệ Việt-Trung đã bắt đầu được cải thiện trở lại.” Lye Liang Fook cũng ghi nhận: “Các cuộc trao đổi cấp cao thường xuyên giữa Đảng cộng sản Trung Quốc và Đảng cộng sản Việt Nam có mức độ tương tác cao hơn so với các trao đổi cấp chính phủ giữa hai nước. Kể từ khi Tập Cận Bình trở thành tổng bí thư Đảng cộng sản Trung Quốc vào năm 2012, Tổng Bí thư Nguyễn Phú Trọng đã có ba chuyến thăm Trung Quốc ( 04/2015, 01/2017 và 10/2022 )”. Chuyến thăm tháng 10/2022 nổi bật vì chuyến thăm này nhằm thực hiện lời hứa của Nguyễn Phú Trọng với Tập Cận Bình là sẽ thực hiện chuyến công du ngoại quốc đầu tiên tới Trung Quốc sau khi tái đắc cử tổng bí thư vào tháng 1/2021. Về phần mình, sau khi tái đắc cử tổng bí thư, ông Tập Cận Bình cũng đã chọn Việt Nam là điểm đến đầu tiên qua chuyến thăm vào tháng 11/2017.  Phải chăng mối quan hệ giữa hai đảng Cộng sản Việt Nam và Trung Quốc vẫn rất bền chặt và như vậy Việt Nam sẽ phải tiếp tục xem Trung Quốc là đối tác hàng đầu hơn bất cứ quốc gia nào khác, cho dù giữa hai  nước vẫn thường có căng thẳng do tranh chấp chủ quyền Biển Đông? Nhà nghiên cứu Vũ Xuân Khang đưa ra một ý kiến khác: “Quan hệ giữa hai Đảng không nói hết được tại sao Việt Nam phải xem Trung Quốc là đối tác hàng đầu. Về bản chất, dù có theo thể chế chính trị nào đi chăng nữa, Việt Nam vẫn là một nước nhỏ so với Trung Quốc, và đã là nước nhỏ thì phải chịu sự ảnh hưởng của nước lớn dù muốn hay không. Các hoàng đế phong kiến Việt Nam hơn 1000 năm từ sau khi đất nước giành được độc lập dưới thời Ngô Quyền đều hiểu rõ bài học này, nên cho dù Việt Nam có đánh thắng Trung Quốc trên chiến trường, thì Việt Nam vẫn phải cử sứ giả để cầu hòa và chấp nhận tiếp tục làm chư hầu của Trung Quốc. Đảng Cộng Sản Việt Nam đã quyết tâm thoát Trung vào giai đoạn 1978-1991, nhưng cũng như các triều đại phong kiến Việt Nam, dù thắng trên chiến trường nhưng cũng phải chấp nhận cầu hòa với Trung Quốc, vì Việt Nam không đủ sức mạnh để đối đầu với Trung Quốc lâu dài. Do vậy, Việt Nam nên khôn khéo bảo vệ chủ quyền bằng các biện pháp ngoại giao, do Việt Nam không thể chiến thắng trong một cuộc đua vũ trang với Trung Quốc. Trung Quốc chỉ ủng hộ chính sách đối ngoại đa phương của Việt Nam khi Việt Nam khẳng định với Trung Quốc là chính sách đa phương đó không làm tổn hại tới lợi ích cốt lõi của Trung Quốc. Bất kể cùng chung ý thức hệ, Trung Quốc giai đoạn 1978-1991 đã cho Việt Nam thấy rằng chỉ cần Bắc Kinh muốn cô lập Hà Nội, thì Hà Nội cũng không có cách nào thoát được, kể cả khi Liên Xô đã nỗ lực giúp Việt Nam thoát Trung.Nhà phân tích Jeff Zeberlein, nguyên là một sĩ quan hải quân Mỹ, trên trang web của Jamestown Foundation ngày 20/10 đã viết: “Các nhà hoạch định chính sách ở Hoa Kỳ hoan nghênh những phát triển ngoại giao ( trong quan hệ Mỹ-Việt ), nhưng các chuyên gia khu vực cảnh báo rằng bối cảnh địa lý của Việt Nam ngăn cản việc tăng cường hơn nữa quan hệ với phương Tây: Trung Quốc và Việt Nam có chung đường biên giới trên bộ và trên biển, đó là một phần lý do tại sao nền kinh tế Việt Nam phụ thuộc nhiều vào xuất khẩu của Trung Quốc. Vì lợi ích chiến lược của mình, Việt Nam không thể đoạn tuyệt hoàn toàn với Trung Quốc. Trong khi đó, Hoa Kỳ được coi là một đối tác không đáng tin cậy, không chỉ vì lý do lịch sử, mà còn do hệ thống chính trị khác nhau giữa hai nước: Dưới con mắt của giới lãnh đạo cộng sản Việt Nam, các tiến trình chính trị dân chủ của Hoa Kỳ dẫn đến việc ra những quyết định thất thường, ngắn hạn. Nhưng sự cải thiện rõ rệt trong quan hệ Mỹ-Việt là tích cực cho cả hai nước, ngay cả khi Việt Nam khó có thể từ bỏ cách tiếp cận hòa giải đối với Bắc Kinh. Chính sách Bốn Không sẽ được triển khai với cả các đối tác phương Tây và Trung Quốc để mang lại cho Việt Nam nhiều quyền tự chủ hơn. Các quan chức quốc phòng Hoa Kỳ có thể thấy thất vọng vì tiến trình hội nhập quân sự chặt chẽ hơn bị đình trệ khi Việt Nam điều chỉnh quan hệ với phương Tây để xoa dịu Trung Quốc. Tuy nhiên, việc Việt Nam chuyển sang một chính sách Bốn Không ít hạn chế hơn là bằng chứng cho thấy cam kết mạnh mẽ hơn của Việt Nam trong việc đối đầu với hành động mang tính cưỡng ép của Trung Quốc ở Biển Đông, mặc dù điều đó cũng có thể báo trước nhiều cuộc đụng độ hơn để bảo vệ các yêu sách biển của Việt Nam.”

Hãng tin Anh Reuters ngày 06/10/2023 loan tin là các quan chức Việt Nam và Trung Quốc đang chuẩn bị cho chuyến thăm của chủ tịch Tập Cận Bình tới Hà Nội có thể vào cuối tháng 10 hoặc đầu tháng 11.  Cho tới nay, đã đầu tháng 11, cả Hà Nội và Bắc Kinh đều không có thông báo gì về chuyến đi này. Nhưng nếu có diễn ra thì đây sẽ là chuyến thăm cấp nhà nước đầu tiên của ông Tập Cận Bình đến Việt Nam kể từ năm 2017. Chuyến đi này cũng sẽ diễn ra đúng vào dịp kỷ niệm 15 năm quan hệ đối tác chiến lược toàn diện Trung Quốc-Việt Nam.Việc chủ tịch Trung Quốc chấp nhận đi thăm Việt Nam phải chăng cho thấy Bắc Kinh đã không có phản ứng gay gắt về việc Việt Nam nâng cấp quan hệ với Mỹ lên thành đối tác chiến lược toàn diện nhân chuyến thăm Hà Nội vào tháng 9 của tổng thống Mỹ Joe Biden?Trả lời phỏng vấn RFI Việt ngữ ngày 25/10/2023, nhà nghiên cứu Vũ Xuân Khang, Đại học Boston, Hoa Kỳ, nhận định:  “Đúng vậy. Nguyên nhân chính Bắc Kinh không có phản ứng gay gắt về việc Việt Nam nâng cấp quan hệ với Mỹ lên đối tác chiến lược toàn diện là do các nỗ lực ngoại giao của Việt Nam để điều hòa quan hệ với Trung Quốc, ít nhất là từ tháng 6 cho đến nay. Thủ tướng Phạm Minh Chính đã đến thăm Trung Quốc vào cuối tháng 6 khi tàu sân bay Ronald Reagan ghé thăm Đà Nẵng. Ông Chính cũng có chuyến thăm Trung Quốc lần hai vào tháng 9 tại Nam Ninh chỉ vài ngày sau khi tổng thống Joe Biden thăm Hà Nội. Chủ tịch nước Võ Văn Thưởng mới đây cũng đã đến Bắc Kinh và hội kiến chủ tịch Tập Cận Bình. Cả ba chuyến viếng thăm trên đều thể hiện một thông điệp chính của Việt Nam là Hà Nội mong muốn hai nước tiếp tục duy trì quan hệ ngoại giao nồng ấm và Việt Nam không có ý định ngả theo Mỹ để chống Trung Quốc. Nếu chủ tịch Tập Cận Bình đến thăm Việt Nam, đây sẽ là một chỉ dấu rất lớn là các nỗ lực trấn an Trung Quốc của Việt Nam đã thành công. Đây cũng sẽ là chuyến đi đáp lễ 3 chuyến đi của lãnh đạo Việt Nam, đặc biệt là chuyến đi của tổng bí thư Nguyễn Phú Trọng vào tháng 10, tháng 11/2022.” Nhà phân tích Sebastian Strangio của trang mạng The Diplomat ( Nhật Bản ) cũng có cùng nhận định: “Thật khó để tưởng tượng rằng Việt Nam đã không báo trước cho Bắc Kinh về việc nâng cấp quan hệ với Mỹ và trấn an họ rằng hành động này không nhắm vào Trung Quốc. Tổng thống Biden cũng đã nhấn mạnh chuyến thăm Việt Nam của ông là nhằm mục đích xây dựng các mối quan hệ của Hoa Kỳ trên khắp châu Á, chứ không phải để kiềm chế Trung Quốc. Nhưng sau khi Việt Nam nâng cấp quan hệ với Hoa Kỳ lên thành “đối tác chiến lược toàn diện”, đặt Hoa Kỳ ngang hàng với Trung Quốc và Nga, Trung Quốc có thể cảm thấy cần phải đòi Việt Nam chấp nhận một bản “nâng cấp” mới trong quan hệ song phương.”Theo hãng tin Reuters, trước chuyến viếng thăm của ông Tập Cận Bình, Hà Nội và Bắc Kinh đang thảo luận về việc có thể đưa cụm từ “cộng đồng chung vận mệnh” vào tuyên bố chung để mô tả mối quan hệ song phương.Cụm từ “cộng đồng chung vận mệnh” đã trở nên “thịnh hành” sau khi ông Tập lên nắm quyền vào năm 2012, thể hiện mức độ quan hệ song phương cao nhất đối với chính quyền Tập Cận Bình. Trung Quốc đã thiết lập “cộng đồng chung vận mệnh” với Lào vào năm 2017 và Cam Bốt vào năm 2018, sau đó là với Miến Điện trong chuyến thăm cấp nhà nước của ông Tập Cận Bình đến nước này vào tháng 1/2020. Mặc dù Bắc Kinh rõ ràng muốn Việt Nam gia nhập nhóm các quốc gia “có chung vận mệnh” với Trung Quốc, hai nguồn tin nói với Reuters rằng các quan chức Việt Nam thận trọng về việc thêm cụm từ đó vào tuyên bố chung. Trung Quốc được cho là đã từng tỏ ý muốn tuyên bố một cộng đồng chung vận mệnh với Việt Nam trong chuyến thăm cấp nhà nước của ông Tập Cận Bình vào năm 2017, nhưng Hà Nội lúc đó đã bác bỏ.Trả lời phỏng vấn RFI Việt ngữ, nhà nghiên cứu Vũ Xuân Khang cho rằng dù không muốn “cộng đồng chung vận mệnh” với Trung Quốc, thật ra Việt Nam cũng khó mà thoát khỏi vòng ảnh hưởng của Bắc Kinh: “Theo chính sách ngoại giao của Trung Quốc, cụm từ "cộng đồng chung vận mệnh" là dành cho những nước mà Trung Quốc coi là những đối tác quan trọng. Việc Việt Nam có đưa cụm từ "cộng đồng chung vận mệnh" vào tuyên bố chung hay không thật ra cũng không quá quan trọng. Về bản chất, Việt Nam cũng không có nhiều lựa chọn trong quan hệ với Trung Quốc, khi Trung Quốc đã cho Việt Nam thấy rằng các nỗ lực thoát Trung trong quá khứ của Việt Nam đã thất bại, nhất là sau khi Việt Nam phải đồng ý bình thường hóa quan hệ với Trung Quốc trên thế yếu vào năm 1991, sau khi đồng minh Liên Xô đã không còn khả năng giúp Việt Nam thoát Trung như giai đoạn từ 1978 đến 1988.Trung Quốc muốn một Việt Nam trung lập nằm trong ảnh hưởng của Trung Quốc. Do vậy, nếu Việt Nam có thể đảm bảo với Trung Quốc rằng Việt Nam không có ý định chống Trung Quốc, Trung Quốc cũng không cần phải ép Việt Nam. Nếu Việt Nam chấp nhận đưa cụm từ “cộng đồng chung vận mệnh” vào tuyên bố chung thì có thể hiểu Hà Nội muốn thể hiện với Trung Quốc rằng quan hệ hai nước vẫn đang phát triển tốt đẹp và là kết quả của các chuyến thăm cấp cao giữa hai nước từ tháng 6 đến nay, và cũng nhằm để cân bằng bước “nhảy cóc” từ đối tác toàn diện lên đối tác chiến lược toàn diện với Mỹ vào tháng 9 vừa qua.”Tuy nhiên, Trung Quốc vẫn muốn cho Việt Nam thấy tính chất đặc biệt trong quan hệ giữa hai nước. Theo Tân Hoa Xã, trong cuộc gặp với chủ tịch nước Võ Văn Thưởng ở Bắc Kinh ngày 20/10 nhân diễn đàn “Vành đai và Con đường”, ông Tập Cận Bình kêu gọi Việt Nam “đừng quên cội nguồn của tình hữu nghị” giữa hai quốc gia Cộng sản này. Về phần mình, trong cuộc hội kiến với Thái Kỳ, Chánh Văn phòng Trung ương Đảng Cộng sản Trung Quốc, ông Võ Văn Thưởng cũng nhìn nhận Việt Nam và Trung Quốc là hai nước “tương đồng về thể chế chính trị, con đường phát triển và mục tiêu xây dựng chủ nghĩa xã hội”.  Ông khẳng định: “ Việt Nam coi trọng việc củng cố và phát triển quan hệ Đối tác hợp tác chiến lược toàn diện với Trung Quốc, coi đây là lựa chọn chiến lược và ưu tiên hàng đầu trong đường lối đối ngoại độc lập, tự chủ, đa phương hóa, đa dạng hóa của Việt Nam”.Trong bài viết đăng trên trang web của Viện nghiên cứu Đông Nam Á Yusof Ishak ( ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute ), một nhà nghiên cứu của Viện này, Lye Liang Fook, nhấn mạnh đến quan hệ giữa hai đảng Cộng sản Trung Quốc và Việt Nam: “Việt Nam dường như đang xích lại gần hơn với Hoa Kỳ với việc nâng cấp quan hệ gần đây lên thành quan hệ đối tác chiến lược toàn diện. Tuy nhiên, không nên đánh giá quá cao diễn biến này, vì quan hệ Việt Nam - Trung Quốc, đặc biệt là quan hệ giữa hai đảng, vẫn bền chặt. ( … ).  Trung Quốc và Việt Nam đều có lợi ích trong việc đảm bảo cho các đảng cộng sản cầm quyền của họ duy trì sự thống trị.”Lye Liang Fook nhắc lại: “Vào thời điểm quan hệ song phương xuống thấp, Hà Nội và Bắc Kinh đã dựa vào mối quan hệ giữa hai đảng để kiểm soát những bất đồng và đưa quan hệ trở lại đúng hướng. Sau những đụng độ căng thẳng trong sự cố giàn khoan Hải Dương 981 năm 2014, tổng bí thư Nguyễn Phú Trọng đã cử đặc phái viên Lê Hồng Anh, Ủy viên Bộ Chính trị, tới Bắc Kinh vào tháng 8/2014 để hàn gắn quan hệ. Đổi lại, Tập Cận Bình đã cử ông Du Chánh Thanh (Yu Zhengsheng) đến thăm Việt Nam vào tháng 12/2014. Việc Du Chánh Thanh là nhân vật đứng hàng thứ tư trong Đảng cộng sản Trung Quốc cho thấy quan hệ Việt-Trung đã bắt đầu được cải thiện trở lại.” Lye Liang Fook cũng ghi nhận: “Các cuộc trao đổi cấp cao thường xuyên giữa Đảng cộng sản Trung Quốc và Đảng cộng sản Việt Nam có mức độ tương tác cao hơn so với các trao đổi cấp chính phủ giữa hai nước. Kể từ khi Tập Cận Bình trở thành tổng bí thư Đảng cộng sản Trung Quốc vào năm 2012, Tổng Bí thư Nguyễn Phú Trọng đã có ba chuyến thăm Trung Quốc ( 04/2015, 01/2017 và 10/2022 )”. Chuyến thăm tháng 10/2022 nổi bật vì chuyến thăm này nhằm thực hiện lời hứa của Nguyễn Phú Trọng với Tập Cận Bình là sẽ thực hiện chuyến công du ngoại quốc đầu tiên tới Trung Quốc sau khi tái đắc cử tổng bí thư vào tháng 1/2021. Về phần mình, sau khi tái đắc cử tổng bí thư, ông Tập Cận Bình cũng đã chọn Việt Nam là điểm đến đầu tiên qua chuyến thăm vào tháng 11/2017.  Phải chăng mối quan hệ giữa hai đảng Cộng sản Việt Nam và Trung Quốc vẫn rất bền chặt và như vậy Việt Nam sẽ phải tiếp tục xem Trung Quốc là đối tác hàng đầu hơn bất cứ quốc gia nào khác, cho dù giữa hai  nước vẫn thường có căng thẳng do tranh chấp chủ quyền Biển Đông? Nhà nghiên cứu Vũ Xuân Khang đưa ra một ý kiến khác: “Quan hệ giữa hai Đảng không nói hết được tại sao Việt Nam phải xem Trung Quốc là đối tác hàng đầu. Về bản chất, dù có theo thể chế chính trị nào đi chăng nữa, Việt Nam vẫn là một nước nhỏ so với Trung Quốc, và đã là nước nhỏ thì phải chịu sự ảnh hưởng của nước lớn dù muốn hay không. Các hoàng đế phong kiến Việt Nam hơn 1000 năm từ sau khi đất nước giành được độc lập dưới thời Ngô Quyền đều hiểu rõ bài học này, nên cho dù Việt Nam có đánh thắng Trung Quốc trên chiến trường, thì Việt Nam vẫn phải cử sứ giả để cầu hòa và chấp nhận tiếp tục làm chư hầu của Trung Quốc. Đảng Cộng Sản Việt Nam đã quyết tâm thoát Trung vào giai đoạn 1978-1991, nhưng cũng như các triều đại phong kiến Việt Nam, dù thắng trên chiến trường nhưng cũng phải chấp nhận cầu hòa với Trung Quốc, vì Việt Nam không đủ sức mạnh để đối đầu với Trung Quốc lâu dài. Do vậy, Việt Nam nên khôn khéo bảo vệ chủ quyền bằng các biện pháp ngoại giao, do Việt Nam không thể chiến thắng trong một cuộc đua vũ trang với Trung Quốc. Trung Quốc chỉ ủng hộ chính sách đối ngoại đa phương của Việt Nam khi Việt Nam khẳng định với Trung Quốc là chính sách đa phương đó không làm tổn hại tới lợi ích cốt lõi của Trung Quốc. Bất kể cùng chung ý thức hệ, Trung Quốc giai đoạn 1978-1991 đã cho Việt Nam thấy rằng chỉ cần Bắc Kinh muốn cô lập Hà Nội, thì Hà Nội cũng không có cách nào thoát được, kể cả khi Liên Xô đã nỗ lực giúp Việt Nam thoát Trung.Nhà phân tích Jeff Zeberlein, nguyên là một sĩ quan hải quân Mỹ, trên trang web của Jamestown Foundation ngày 20/10 đã viết: “Các nhà hoạch định chính sách ở Hoa Kỳ hoan nghênh những phát triển ngoại giao ( trong quan hệ Mỹ-Việt ), nhưng các chuyên gia khu vực cảnh báo rằng bối cảnh địa lý của Việt Nam ngăn cản việc tăng cường hơn nữa quan hệ với phương Tây: Trung Quốc và Việt Nam có chung đường biên giới trên bộ và trên biển, đó là một phần lý do tại sao nền kinh tế Việt Nam phụ thuộc nhiều vào xuất khẩu của Trung Quốc. Vì lợi ích chiến lược của mình, Việt Nam không thể đoạn tuyệt hoàn toàn với Trung Quốc. Trong khi đó, Hoa Kỳ được coi là một đối tác không đáng tin cậy, không chỉ vì lý do lịch sử, mà còn do hệ thống chính trị khác nhau giữa hai nước: Dưới con mắt của giới lãnh đạo cộng sản Việt Nam, các tiến trình chính trị dân chủ của Hoa Kỳ dẫn đến việc ra những quyết định thất thường, ngắn hạn. Nhưng sự cải thiện rõ rệt trong quan hệ Mỹ-Việt là tích cực cho cả hai nước, ngay cả khi Việt Nam khó có thể từ bỏ cách tiếp cận hòa giải đối với Bắc Kinh. Chính sách Bốn Không sẽ được triển khai với cả các đối tác phương Tây và Trung Quốc để mang lại cho Việt Nam nhiều quyền tự chủ hơn. Các quan chức quốc phòng Hoa Kỳ có thể thấy thất vọng vì tiến trình hội nhập quân sự chặt chẽ hơn bị đình trệ khi Việt Nam điều chỉnh quan hệ với phương Tây để xoa dịu Trung Quốc. Tuy nhiên, việc Việt Nam chuyển sang một chính sách Bốn Không ít hạn chế hơn là bằng chứng cho thấy cam kết mạnh mẽ hơn của Việt Nam trong việc đối đầu với hành động mang tính cưỡng ép của Trung Quốc ở Biển Đông, mặc dù điều đó cũng có thể báo trước nhiều cuộc đụng độ hơn để bảo vệ các yêu sách biển của Việt Nam.”

Today's podcast is titled, “Ethnic Questions Among Post-USSR Emerging Republics.” From 1991, Vladimir Socor, political analyst with the Jamestown Foundation, Dzintra Bungs, Senior Research Fellow, Latvian Institute of International Affairs, and Bohdan Nahaylo, writer with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, discuss the question of relations among the many ethnic groups that were encompassed within the USSR and its importance to the structure and stability of these emerging republics. Listen now, and don't forget to subscribe to get updates each week for the Free To Choose Media Podcast.

Mr. Janusz Bugajski will discuss the state of Russia today and the consequences a failed Russian state may have on the world. About the Lecture: The Russian Federation is a failed state. It has proved unable to transform itself into a nation-state, a civic state, or a stable imperial state. Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has accelerated the process of state rupture through economic decline, falling revenues, elite conflicts, military incompetence, and regional and ethnic disquiet. Russia confronts an existential paradox. Without economic reform and regional autonomy, the federal structure will become increasingly unmanageable. But even if democratic reforms are undertaken by a weakening central state several regions can exploit the opportunity to secede. The prospects for violent internal conflicts substantially increase if reforms are indefinitely blocked. Growing fractures in the Russian Federation will also have a major impact on all neighboring countries for which Western policymakers are not prepared. About the Speaker: Mr. Janusz Bugajski is a Senior Fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington DC and host of television shows broadcast in the Balkans. Bugajski has authored 21 books on Europe, Russia, and trans-Atlantic relations. His recent books include Failed State: A Guide to Russia's Rupture (2022), Eurasian Disunion: Russia's Vulnerable Flanks (with Margarita Assenova) (2016); and Conflict Zones: North Caucasus and Western Balkans Compared(2014). His forthcoming book is titled Pivotal Poland: Europe's Rising Strategic Player. He is a contributor to several media outlets in the US and Europe and has testified before a number of US congressional committees including: the Helsinki Commission, Senate Foreign Relations, Senate Armed Services, House Foreign Affairs, and House Defense Appropriations. ***Learn more about IWP graduate programs: https://www.iwp.edu/academic-programs/ ***Make a gift to IWP: https://interland3.donorperfect.net/weblink/WebLink.aspx?name=E231090&id=18

GUEST 1 OVERVIEW: Doug Mainwaring is US Bureau Chief for Lifesite News. GUEST 2 OVERVIEW: Michael Scheuer is a twenty-plus-year CIA veteran. From 1996 to 1999, he served as the head of the Bin Laden desk (also known as Alec Station) which was the Osama bin Laden tracking unit at the Counterterrorism Center. He then worked as Special Adviser to the Chief of the bin Laden unit from September 2001 to November 2004. He resigned from the CIA in 2004. He is currently an Adjunct Professor of Security Studies at Georgetown University and formerly a Senior Fellow at the Jamestown Foundation. He is a NY Times best selling author who wrote Imperial Hubris: Why the West Is Losing the War on Terror; Osama Bin Laden and Marching Toward Hell: America and Islam after Iraq. Dr Scheuer is also co-host of the popular Two Mikes podcast. His website is: www.non-intervention2.com

On today's program, sponsored by HII, Mark Montgomery of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies discusses Chinese malware implanted across US military and national infrastructure that could hamper an American response to a crisis precipitated by China in the Indo-Pacific, Sam Bendett of the Center for Naval Analyses discusses Ukraine's battlefield gains and Russia's latest nuclear saber rattling, and Byron Callan of Capital Alpha Partners discusses key takeaways from last week's earnings reports, the Jamestown Foundation's tactical nuclear conversation with former US Army Europe Commander Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, USA Ret., and the week ahead with Defense & Aerospace Report Editor Vago Muradian.

Until yesterday, Qin Gang 秦刚 was serving as China's Minister of Foreign Affairs. But on Monday, July 24, the National People's Congress Standing Committee announced an emergency meeting for the next day, July 25, during which Qin was “removed” 免职 (albeit not “dismissed” 撤职) from his position as China's #2 diplomat. To dissect the rumors and make sense of it all, we have on Matt Brazil — a senior China analyst at BluePath Labs, writer for SpyTalk, fellow at the Jamestown Foundation, and longtime friend ChinaTalk. (Check out our January 2021 show with Matt!) We discuss: Precisely what we know and don't know about l'affaire Qin; How journalist Fu Xiaotian 傅晓田 is wrapped up in all of this — and how those with CCP connections somehow end up with private jets and buy-ins to elite universities; Qin's possible connections to the Ministry of State Security — and why that might rub his subordinates the wrong way; How the CCP has dispensed with previous political elites, and whether Qin's treatment resembles theirs; and Why it is that sometimes even the heads of CCP security don't even know what's going on! Outro music: 我要你的愛, by 葛蘭; “Saving All My Love For You,” by Whitney Houston Check out our newsletter! https://www.chinatalk.media Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Until yesterday, Qin Gang 秦刚 was serving as China's Minister of Foreign Affairs. But on Monday, July 24, the National People's Congress Standing Committee announced an emergency meeting for the next day, July 25, during which Qin was “removed” 免职 (albeit not “dismissed” 撤职) from his position as China's #2 diplomat. To dissect the rumors and make sense of it all, we have on Matt Brazil — a senior China analyst at BluePath Labs, writer for SpyTalk, fellow at the Jamestown Foundation, and longtime friend ChinaTalk. (Check out our January 2021 show with Matt!) We discuss: Precisely what we know and don't know about l'affaire Qin; How journalist Fu Xiaotian 傅晓田 is wrapped up in all of this — and how those with CCP connections somehow end up with private jets and buy-ins to elite universities; Qin's possible connections to the Ministry of State Security — and why that might rub his subordinates the wrong way; How the CCP has dispensed with previous political elites, and whether Qin's treatment resembles theirs; and Why it is that sometimes even the heads of CCP security don't even know what's going on! Outro music: 我要你的愛, by 葛蘭; “Saving All My Love For You,” by Whitney Houston Check out our newsletter! https://www.chinatalk.media Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The presidents of the five Central Asian countries just traveled to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, to participate in the first-ever Gulf Cooperation Council-Central Asia summit. Ties between the two regions have been growing since Russia launched its full-scale war on Ukraine. What is changing in Central Asian-Arab relations and what lies ahead for cooperation between these regions? To explore these questions, host Bruce Pannier is joined by two experts: Aijan Sharshenova, research fellow at the Bishkek-based think tank Crossroads Central Asia; and Theodore Karasik, fellow on Russian and Middle Eastern affairs at the Washington, D.C.,-based Jamestown Foundation.

Motoffensiven har inletts. Kan Putins styrkor drivas ut, eller är det här Ukrainas sista chans att vinna kriget? Sveriges Radios korrespondent Lubna El-Shanti tar oss med till ett Ukraina där förhoppningarna på motoffensiven är skyhöga. Många ser det här som den bästa möjligheten att slå in en kil i det ryska försvaret och vissa tror till och med att det här är början till slutet för ockupationen.Samtidigt är förhållandena vid fronten annorlunda än vid den göra motoffensiven i höstas. Ukrainska styrkor är bättre utrustade, men många erfarna soldater har dödats i strider och de ryska försvarslinjerna är starkare.Motoffensiven är också ett sätt för Ukraina att visa upp för omvärlden att den moderna militära utrustningen gör skillnad. För om deras allierade inte ser framgångar så finns det en oro för att Ukraina kan tvingas till fredsförhandlingar, förhandlingar som kan sluta med en känsla av svek.Men det är inte bara för Ukraina som det nu står mycket på spel. En lyckad ukrainsk motoffensiv skulle kunna bidra till fler sprickor i Kremls maktapparat och fortsatta slitningar mellan Wagnergruppens ledare Jevgenij Prigozijn och militärledningen.Men även om ukrainska styrkor skulle lyckas återerövra stora landområden, vad finns egentligen kvar för människorna som bodde där? I många fall nästan ingenting.Medverkande: Sir Lawrence Freedman, brittisk försvarsforskare, David Gendelman, israelisk försvarsexpert, Gordon “Skip” Davis Jr, pensionerad generalmajor amerikanska armén, Tim Willasey-Wilsey, professor Kings collage, Pavel Filatjev, rysk avhoppare och författare, Aleksej Muchin, politisk analytiker, Sergey Sukhankin, analytiker Jamestown Foundation, Hanna Plischynska, lantbrukare.Programledare: Lotten Collinlotten.collin@sr.seReportrar: Lubna El-Shanti och Anja SahlbergTekniker: Jacob Gustavsson och Maria StillbergProducent: David Rasmussondavid.rasmusson@sr.se

Tensions in South Caucasus had ups and downs throughout 2022. Turkiye, Russia, the European Union and the US took important steps to bring peace to the region and end the dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan. But former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Armenia and antigovernmental protests in Iran have made the situation in South Caucasus even more fragile. Many issues aren't yet settled, but Turkiye seems to be in a better position to mediate with greater presence in the region through the Middle Corridor. Let's take a look at this report. Guests: Mathew Bryza Former US Ambassador to Azerbaijan Eleonora Tafuro Ambrosetti Research Fellow at ISPI Theodore Karasik Fellow at Jamestown Foundation

Now we need experts on Russian society and politics more than ever – not just to understand the war and its origins, but to understand what comes after it. Kseniya Kirillova is an Investigative journalist and analyst. She offers her expert views on several services of Radio Free Europe and Radio Liberty, with a focus on analysing Russian society, mentality. For this podcast we are especially interested in her deep knowledge of the mechanisms of Russian propaganda (including in the US), "active measures" and foreign policy. Kseniya is author of several hundred articles, including researches on Russian propaganda and soft power for the Atlantic Council, the Jamestown Foundation, British Institute for Statecraft, EU Today, British-Canadian security project Defense Report, Ukrainian English-language media Kyiv Post and Euromaidan Press, Stop Fake project, etc. In the United States, she has cooperated with the Associated Press, Newsweek, The Daily Beast, ABC7, Newsy, and other media. Expert of the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies.

THE THESIS: China is at war with us.THE SCRIPTURE & SCRIPTURAL RESOURCES: The CCP is pure evil . . . The Bible is quite clear about wicked leadersTHE NEWS & COMMENT:Mike O'Rourke's CompanyThe China Syndrome—Preventing a Business Secret MeltdownChina has opened police stations in US and Canada to monitor Chinese citizens: ReportReports of Chinese police stations in US worry FBIHackers linked to Chinese government stole millions in Covid benefits, Secret Service says; The theft of state unemployment funds is the first pandemic fraud tied to foreign, state-sponsored cybercriminals that the U.S. government has acknowledged publicly.China set to loosen COVID curbs after week of protestsFBI joins probe into North Carolina countywide blackout as motive for gunfire at power substations unclear; Moore County officials cannot confirm shootings at power substations constitute domestic terrorismHow Much Money Has the U.S. Spent on the Russian Proxy War in Ukraine? Finding out how much the United States has given to Ukraine is no easy task.Eventually I tracked down a database operated by the Kiel Institute, a German think tank. They have been tracking total military and non-military aid to Ukraine since the beginning of the conflict. Their numbers include all aid from Jan. 24, 2022 to Oct. 3, 2022 (the data is scheduled for an update on Dec. 6).According to Kiel, the U.S. has transferred military and non-military aid worth $54.43 billion to the government of Ukraine. The database Kiel has maintained is by far the most granular and detailed accounting of what the U.S. government has provided to Ukraine, including descriptions of the individual batches of military equipment. If you're interested, you can check it out here.It's unfortunate that an American journalist must rely on a German think tank for get this information. It's also unfortunate that Kiel had to copiously piece together this information from various statements made by the Department of Defense, the White House, and the Secretary of State. Because of that, the data is only as accurate as the American federal government's statements to the media.Kiel's estimated $54.43 billion plus the White House's new request for $37 billion would bring the total cost of U.S. involvement in Ukraine to $91,430,000,000.Let's put $91.43 billion into context: the European Union member countries and institutions have provided $30.45 billion to Ukraine, per Kiel. The Jamestown Foundation estimates the Russia's most recent annual defense spending was $77.7 billion. In 2021, the Gross Domestic Product of the state of Maine was $77.9 billion. And, of course, all of this is meaningless without noting that the total U.S. federal debt currently sits at $31.3 trillion.

For nearly three years, people in China have endured their government's “Zero COVID” policies to prevent cases from overwhelming their hospital system. But after a fire in Urumqi broke out and videos spread of fire rescue having trouble reaching the building, people have taken to the streets in defiance of orders and even gone as far as demanding President Xi Jinping's resignation.  Guest: Matthew Brazil, co-author of Chinese Communist Espionage: An Intelligence Primer and a fellow at the Jamestown Foundation. If you enjoy this show, please consider signing up for Slate Plus. Slate Plus members get benefits like zero ads on any Slate podcast, bonus episodes of shows like Slow Burn and Amicus—and you'll be supporting the work we do here on What Next. Sign up now at slate.com/whatnextplus to help support our work. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

For nearly three years, people in China have endured their government's “Zero COVID” policies to prevent cases from overwhelming their hospital system. But after a fire in Urumqi broke out and videos spread of fire rescue having trouble reaching the building, people have taken to the streets in defiance of orders and even gone as far as demanding President Xi Jinping's resignation.  Guest: Matthew Brazil, co-author of Chinese Communist Espionage: An Intelligence Primer and a fellow at the Jamestown Foundation. If you enjoy this show, please consider signing up for Slate Plus. Slate Plus members get benefits like zero ads on any Slate podcast, bonus episodes of shows like Slow Burn and Amicus—and you'll be supporting the work we do here on What Next. Sign up now at slate.com/whatnextplus to help support our work. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

For nearly three years, people in China have endured their government's “Zero COVID” policies to prevent cases from overwhelming their hospital system. But after a fire in Urumqi broke out and videos spread of fire rescue having trouble reaching the building, people have taken to the streets in defiance of orders and even gone as far as demanding President Xi Jinping's resignation.  Guest: Matthew Brazil, co-author of Chinese Communist Espionage: An Intelligence Primer and a fellow at the Jamestown Foundation. If you enjoy this show, please consider signing up for Slate Plus. Slate Plus members get benefits like zero ads on any Slate podcast, bonus episodes of shows like Slow Burn and Amicus—and you'll be supporting the work we do here on What Next. Sign up now at slate.com/whatnextplus to help support our work. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Almost every listener will be familiar with the Turkish-made TB-2 Bayraktar drone. Most will have seen the many reports of its operational effectiveness in the hands of Ukrainian forces defending against Russia's invasion of their country. But beyond that media coverage, the story of the drone's development, its particular capabilities, and its performance not just in Ukraine but in other recent conflict, as well, is an interesting one. To discuss these topics and explore the broader implications of the TB-2's effectiveness in Ukraine, John Amble is joined on this episode by Dr. Can Kasapoglu, director of the Security and Defense Studies Program at EDAM, a Turkish think tank, and a nonresident fellow at the Jamestown Foundation.

In Chinese Communist Espionage: An Intelligence Primer (Naval Institute Press, 2019), authors Mathew Brazil and Peter Mattis present an unprecedented look into the murky world of Chinese espionage. An introduction-cum-reference guide, the book describes the institutions, operations, individuals, and ideology that have shaped modern China's intelligence apparatus. On the podcast, we talk about the role of ideology in the production and consumption of intelligence, why China's intelligence services managed the transition to the digital age so effectively, who China thinks is winning the intelligence contest with the United States, and more.  Dr. Mathew (Matt) Brazil is a senior analyst at BluePath Labs in Washington, DC, and he is currently working on a second book which will be a narrative account of Beijing's contemporary espionage and influence offensive. Before helping to write Chinese Communist Espionage, he worked as a soldier, diplomat, export controller, and corporate security investigator. He has spent over eight years living and working in China. Peter Mattis has worked on a range of China-related issues in the U.S. government and within think tanks. Recently, he served in government as the Senate-appointed Staff Director on the Congressional-Executive Commission on China. He began his career as a counterintelligence analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency, and he was a fellow at The Jamestown Foundation when he wrote Chinese Communist Espionage: A Primer. John Sakellariadis is a 2020-2021 Fulbright US Student Research Grantee. He holds a Master's degree in public policy from the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia and a Bachelor's degree in History & Literature from Harvard University. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/new-books-network

In Chinese Communist Espionage: An Intelligence Primer (Naval Institute Press, 2019), authors Mathew Brazil and Peter Mattis present an unprecedented look into the murky world of Chinese espionage. An introduction-cum-reference guide, the book describes the institutions, operations, individuals, and ideology that have shaped modern China's intelligence apparatus. On the podcast, we talk about the role of ideology in the production and consumption of intelligence, why China's intelligence services managed the transition to the digital age so effectively, who China thinks is winning the intelligence contest with the United States, and more.  Dr. Mathew (Matt) Brazil is a senior analyst at BluePath Labs in Washington, DC, and he is currently working on a second book which will be a narrative account of Beijing's contemporary espionage and influence offensive. Before helping to write Chinese Communist Espionage, he worked as a soldier, diplomat, export controller, and corporate security investigator. He has spent over eight years living and working in China. Peter Mattis has worked on a range of China-related issues in the U.S. government and within think tanks. Recently, he served in government as the Senate-appointed Staff Director on the Congressional-Executive Commission on China. He began his career as a counterintelligence analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency, and he was a fellow at The Jamestown Foundation when he wrote Chinese Communist Espionage: A Primer. John Sakellariadis is a 2020-2021 Fulbright US Student Research Grantee. He holds a Master's degree in public policy from the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia and a Bachelor's degree in History & Literature from Harvard University. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/east-asian-studies

In Chinese Communist Espionage: An Intelligence Primer (Naval Institute Press, 2019), authors Mathew Brazil and Peter Mattis present an unprecedented look into the murky world of Chinese espionage. An introduction-cum-reference guide, the book describes the institutions, operations, individuals, and ideology that have shaped modern China's intelligence apparatus. On the podcast, we talk about the role of ideology in the production and consumption of intelligence, why China's intelligence services managed the transition to the digital age so effectively, who China thinks is winning the intelligence contest with the United States, and more.  Dr. Mathew (Matt) Brazil is a senior analyst at BluePath Labs in Washington, DC, and he is currently working on a second book which will be a narrative account of Beijing's contemporary espionage and influence offensive. Before helping to write Chinese Communist Espionage, he worked as a soldier, diplomat, export controller, and corporate security investigator. He has spent over eight years living and working in China. Peter Mattis has worked on a range of China-related issues in the U.S. government and within think tanks. Recently, he served in government as the Senate-appointed Staff Director on the Congressional-Executive Commission on China. He began his career as a counterintelligence analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency, and he was a fellow at The Jamestown Foundation when he wrote Chinese Communist Espionage: A Primer. John Sakellariadis is a 2020-2021 Fulbright US Student Research Grantee. He holds a Master's degree in public policy from the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia and a Bachelor's degree in History & Literature from Harvard University. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/political-science

In Chinese Communist Espionage: An Intelligence Primer (Naval Institute Press, 2019), authors Mathew Brazil and Peter Mattis present an unprecedented look into the murky world of Chinese espionage. An introduction-cum-reference guide, the book describes the institutions, operations, individuals, and ideology that have shaped modern China's intelligence apparatus. On the podcast, we talk about the role of ideology in the production and consumption of intelligence, why China's intelligence services managed the transition to the digital age so effectively, who China thinks is winning the intelligence contest with the United States, and more.  Dr. Mathew (Matt) Brazil is a senior analyst at BluePath Labs in Washington, DC, and he is currently working on a second book which will be a narrative account of Beijing's contemporary espionage and influence offensive. Before helping to write Chinese Communist Espionage, he worked as a soldier, diplomat, export controller, and corporate security investigator. He has spent over eight years living and working in China. Peter Mattis has worked on a range of China-related issues in the U.S. government and within think tanks. Recently, he served in government as the Senate-appointed Staff Director on the Congressional-Executive Commission on China. He began his career as a counterintelligence analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency, and he was a fellow at The Jamestown Foundation when he wrote Chinese Communist Espionage: A Primer. John Sakellariadis is a 2020-2021 Fulbright US Student Research Grantee. He holds a Master's degree in public policy from the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia and a Bachelor's degree in History & Literature from Harvard University. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/chinese-studies

In Chinese Communist Espionage: An Intelligence Primer (Naval Institute Press, 2019), authors Mathew Brazil and Peter Mattis present an unprecedented look into the murky world of Chinese espionage. An introduction-cum-reference guide, the book describes the institutions, operations, individuals, and ideology that have shaped modern China's intelligence apparatus. On the podcast, we talk about the role of ideology in the production and consumption of intelligence, why China's intelligence services managed the transition to the digital age so effectively, who China thinks is winning the intelligence contest with the United States, and more.  Dr. Mathew (Matt) Brazil is a senior analyst at BluePath Labs in Washington, DC, and he is currently working on a second book which will be a narrative account of Beijing's contemporary espionage and influence offensive. Before helping to write Chinese Communist Espionage, he worked as a soldier, diplomat, export controller, and corporate security investigator. He has spent over eight years living and working in China. Peter Mattis has worked on a range of China-related issues in the U.S. government and within think tanks. Recently, he served in government as the Senate-appointed Staff Director on the Congressional-Executive Commission on China. He began his career as a counterintelligence analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency, and he was a fellow at The Jamestown Foundation when he wrote Chinese Communist Espionage: A Primer. John Sakellariadis is a 2020-2021 Fulbright US Student Research Grantee. He holds a Master's degree in public policy from the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia and a Bachelor's degree in History & Literature from Harvard University. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/national-security

In Chinese Communist Espionage: An Intelligence Primer (Naval Institute Press, 2019), authors Mathew Brazil and Peter Mattis present an unprecedented look into the murky world of Chinese espionage. An introduction-cum-reference guide, the book describes the institutions, operations, individuals, and ideology that have shaped modern China's intelligence apparatus. On the podcast, we talk about the role of ideology in the production and consumption of intelligence, why China's intelligence services managed the transition to the digital age so effectively, who China thinks is winning the intelligence contest with the United States, and more.  Dr. Mathew (Matt) Brazil is a senior analyst at BluePath Labs in Washington, DC, and he is currently working on a second book which will be a narrative account of Beijing's contemporary espionage and influence offensive. Before helping to write Chinese Communist Espionage, he worked as a soldier, diplomat, export controller, and corporate security investigator. He has spent over eight years living and working in China. Peter Mattis has worked on a range of China-related issues in the U.S. government and within think tanks. Recently, he served in government as the Senate-appointed Staff Director on the Congressional-Executive Commission on China. He began his career as a counterintelligence analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency, and he was a fellow at The Jamestown Foundation when he wrote Chinese Communist Espionage: A Primer. John Sakellariadis is a 2020-2021 Fulbright US Student Research Grantee. He holds a Master's degree in public policy from the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia and a Bachelor's degree in History & Literature from Harvard University. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/book-of-the-day

https://kups.ku.edu/people/valery-dzutsati (Valery Dzutsati), Ph.D. is a visiting assistant professor in the https://kups.ku.edu/ (Department of Political Science) at the University of Kansas. His research interests span civil and interstate conflict, democratization, collective action, religion and politics, and methods with an empirical focus on Eurasia and Eastern Europe. He also is a fellow for the https://jamestown.org/analyst/valery-dzutsati/ (Jamestown Foundation). He discusses recent developments in Ukraine and possible ramifications for Ukraine, Russia, and western countries. This is Season 5! For more episodes, go to https://stlintune.com/ (stlintune.com) #Ukraine #Russia #KU #UniversityofKansas #PoliSci #war #putin #zelensky

Over the past two decades, China has transformed its People’s Liberation Army (PLA) through a holistic approach — modernizing its weaponry, force structure, and approaches to warfare, to include operations in the cyber and space domains, while improving its professional military education. Although Russia remains a near-peer threat, China has ascended to become the United States’ lone pacing threat. The PLA’s momentous progress in warfighting capabilities and concepts, coupled with its whole-of-nation approach to competition, crisis, and conflict, enables it to challenge the United States across all domains and the Diplomatic, Information, Military, and Economic spheres. Army Mad Scientist interviewed the seven world-class SMEs regarding our near peer threat to learn How China Fights: Ian Sullivan serves as the Senior Advisor for Analysis and ISR to the Deputy Chief of Staff, G-2, at the U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC G2). He is responsible for the analysis that defines and the narrative that explains the Army’s Operational Environment, which supports integration across doctrine, organization, training, materiel, leadership and education, personnel, facilities, and policy. Mr. Sullivan is a frequent and valued contributor to the Mad Scientist Laboratory, including the previous episode in this series, How Russia Fights. Peter Wood is a program manager and defense analyst at Blue Path Labs, a strategic advisory firm. He previously edited China Brief, a publication of the Jamestown Foundation. He has an M.A. from the Hopkins-Nanjing Center for Chinese and American Studies (HNC) and a B.A. in Political Science from Texas Tech University. He is proficient in Chinese. Elsa B. Kania is an Adjunct Senior Fellow with the Technology and National Security Program at CNAS. Her research focuses on Chinese military strategy, military innovation, and emerging technologies. Her book, Fighting to Innovate, should be forthcoming with the Naval Institute Press in 2022. At CNAS, Ms. Kania has contributed to the Artificial Intelligence and Global Security Initiative and the “Securing Our 5G Future” program, while acting as a member of the Digital Freedom Forum and the research team for the Task Force on Artificial Intelligence and National Security. Ms. Kania is a Ph.D. candidate in Harvard University’s Department of Government. She is also a graduate of Harvard College and has received a Master of Arts

In this episode of GREAT POWER PODCAST, host AFPC fellow in Indo-Pacific Studies Michael Sobolik speaks with Russell Hsiao, Executive Director of the Global Taiwan Institute, about the history of America's complex relationship with Taiwan, China's ambitions to conquer the island, and the political fate of Taiwan in the coming years. Guest Biography Russell Hsiao is the executive director of GTI, senior fellow at The Jamestown Foundation, and adjunct fellow at Pacific Forum. He previously served as a senior research fellow at The Project 2049 Institute and national security fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Prior to those positions he was the editor of China Brief at The Jamestown Foundation from October 2007- to July 2011 and a special associate in the International Cooperation Department at the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy. While in law school, he clerked within the Office of the Chairman at the Federal Communications Commission and the Interagency Trade Enforcement Center at the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. Mr. Hsiao received his J.D. and certificate from the Law and Technology Institute at the Catholic University of America's Columbus School of Law where he served as the editor-in-chief of the Catholic University's Journal of Law and Technology. He received a B.A. in international studies from the American University's School of International Service and the University Honors Program. Resources from the Conversation Follow the Global Taiwan Institute Subscribe to GTI's Global Taiwan Brief Subscribe to AFPC's Indo-Pacific Monitor

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Mr. Ryan Fedasiuk joins us to discuss the People's Liberation Army's (PLA) efforts to adopt artificial intelligence (AI) technology. Mr. Fedasiuk explains the findings of his new report, which analyzes critical AI defense industry suppliers to the PLA and the implications for China's ability to compete with the US on AI defense technology. Mr. Fedasiuk says AI technology will be central to the PLA's goal of becoming a “world-class” military force and for preparing the PLA for “intelligentized” warfare. In addition, Mr. Fedasiuk argues that through AI technology, the PLA has the potential to compensate for areas where it has historically been vulnerable, such as undersea warfare. He also discusses PLA's procurement of different AI technologies, including intelligent autonomous vehicles. Lastly, he explains that only a small portion of identified AI suppliers to the PLA are subject to US export controls or sanctions regimes, and he analyzes the corresponding policy implications for the United States. Ryan Fedasiuk is a research analyst at Georgetown's Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET). His work explores military applications of artificial intelligence, as well as China's efforts to acquire foreign technology. Prior to joining CSET, Mr. Fedasiuk worked at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the Arms Control Association, the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance, and the Council on Foreign Relations, where he primarily covered aerospace and nuclear issues. His writing has appeared in Foreign Policy, Defense One, the Jamestown Foundation's China Brief, and CFR's Net Politics.

In this conversation, I discuss Taiwan’s international relations with Russel Hsiao. We discuss Taiwan’s current context of and its place in the world, the perception gap around the risk of a Chinese invasion on Taiwan, the role of think tanks in crafting American policy toward Taiwan, how Taiwan has managed to win strong support from both parties in the US, factionalism within the KMT and the future of the party, where Taiwan fits within the Indo-Pacific, and many more topics. You can listen to the episode right away in the audio player embedded above, or right below it you can click “Listen in podcast app” — which will connect you to the show’s feed. Alternatively, you can click the icons below to get it on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or Google Podcasts.If you enjoy this conversation and would like to help the show, leaving us a 5-star rating and review on Apple Podcasts is the easiest way to do so.To give us a review, just go to Policy People on Apple Podcasts and hit ‘Write a Review’.Russell Hsiao is the executive director of Global Taiwan Institute, senior fellow at The Jamestown Foundation, and adjunct fellow at Pacific Forum. He previously worked as a senior research fellow at The Project 2049 Institute and national security fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Prior to those positions he was the editor of China Brief at The Jamestown Foundation and a special associate in the International Cooperation Department at the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy. You can connect with Russell on LinkedIn or check out his think tank’s work at globaltaiwan.org. Subscribe at policypeople.substack.com

Links1. “Mind the Gap: How China's Civilian Shipping Could Enable A Taiwan Invasion,” by Thomas Shugart, War on the Rocks, August 16, 2021.2. “The Better China is Prepared for War, the More it Can Crush US-DPP Collusion,” by Hu Xijin, Global Times, August 28, 2021.3. “Davidson: China Could Try to Take Control of Taiwan In ‘Next Six Years," Mallory Shelbourne, USNI News, March 9, 2021.4. “China Maritime Report No. 4: Civil Transport in PLA Power Projection,” by Conor Kennedy, China Maritime Studies Institute of the U.S. Naval War College, December 6, 2019.5. “Ramping the Strait: Quick and Dirty Solutions To Boost Amphibious Lift,” Conor Kennedy, China Brief from The Jamestown Foundation, July 16, 2021.6. “PLA Uses Large Civilian Ferry Ship for Vehicle Transport in Cross-sea Landing Drills for 1st Time,” by Liu Xuanzun, Global Times, August 19, 2021.7. MarineTraffic.com.

This week on Druktalks TIT, Drukthar chats with Tendor, senior researcher at Tibet Action Institute and PHD candidate at Columbia University, who recently published research article called Divide, Depoliticise, demobilise: China's strategies for controlling Tibetan diaspora on The Jamestown Foundation. He explains about the China's strategies for controlling Tibetan diaspora communities through different kind of strategies in the western free world, infiltrating communities: divide, depoliticise and demobilise etc. We discussed more about the Visa – as – bait strategy neutralizing individuals from both of inside Tibetans and Tibetans in the western world. For more details listen to the podcast and read article link below Please read article here: https://jamestown.org/program/divide-depoliticize-and-demobilize-chinas-strategies-for-controlling-the-tibetan-diaspora/ If you have any question reach out: dhukthar@gmail.com --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/drukthar-gyal/support

"The problem today that we didn't have during the Cold War or twenty years ago is that there's profound disagreement over what are the biggest threats to our national security." On the day the United States is scheduled to end its military presence in Afghanistan, two experts on counterterrorism — Bruce Hoffman and Jacob Ware— join Daniel for a special discussion. On the docket is a deep dive into many issues surrounding the exit. What could the US have done better, or differently? What could happen if ISIS-K and Al Qaeda vie for power in a Taliban-led society? Hoffman makes clear that in his opinion, the US should not be leaving. But what is the alternative? Support Talking Beats with Daniel Lelchuk. Professor Bruce Hoffman has been studying terrorism and insurgency for over four decades. He is a tenured professor in Georgetown University's Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service where from 2010 to 2017 he was the Director of both the Center for Security Studies and of the Security Studies Program. In addition, Professor Hoffman is visiting Professor of Terrorism Studies at St Andrews University, Scotland. He previously held the Corporate Chair in Counterterrorism and Counterinsurgency at the RAND Corporation and was also Director of RAND's Washington, D.C. Office. Professor Hoffman also served as RAND's Vice President for External Affairs and as Acting Director of RAND's Center for Middle East Public Policy. Appointed by the U.S. Congress to serve as a commissioner on the Independent Commission to Review the FBI's Post-9/11 Response to Terrorism and Radicalization, Professor Hoffman was a lead author of the commission's final report. He was Scholar-in-Residence for Counterterrorism at the Central Intelligence Agency between 2004 and 2006; an adviser on counterterrorism to the Office of National Security Affairs, Coalition Provisional Authority, Baghdad, Iraq in 2004, and from 2004-2005 an adviser on counterinsurgency to the Strategy, Plans, and Analysis Office at Multi-National Forces-Iraq Headquarters, Baghdad. Professor Hoffman was also an adviser to the Iraq Study Group. He has been a Distinguished Scholar, a Public Policy Scholar, a Senior Scholar, and a Global Fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Washington, D.C.; a Senior Fellow at the Combating Terrorism Center, U.S. Military Academy, West Point, N.Y.; a Visiting Professor at the Institute for Counter-Terrorism, Interdisciplinary Center, Herzliya, Israel; and, a Visiting Professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. He is also a contributing editor to The National Interest and a member of the Jamestown Foundation's Board of Directors; a member of the board of advisers to the FBI Intelligence Analysts Association; and, serves on the advisory boards to the Arms Sales Monitoring Project at the Federation of American Scientists and of Our Voices Together: September 11 Friends and Families to Help Build a Safer, More Compassionate World. Professor Hoffman holds degrees in government, history, and international relations and received his doctorate from Oxford University. In November 1994, the Director of Central Intelligence awarded Professor Hoffman the United States Intelligence Community Seal Medallion, the highest level of commendation given to a non-government employee, which recognizes sustained superior performance of high value that distinctly benefits the interests and national security of the United States. Jacob Ware is a Research Associate in the Counterterrorism and Studies Program at the Council on Foreign Relations.

美國智庫詹姆士敦基金會（Jamestown Foundation）最新一期「中國簡報」的文章指出，中共官方喉舌「新華社」的策略，除了「廣告宣傳」外，還在另闢蹊徑進行大外宣。那就是與英語網絡媒體建立商業合作關係，在聲譽良好且據稱是客觀的新聞的旗幟下掩蓋其材料來源。這些做法更為微妙，也可能更有效。 更多內容請見：https://www.epochtimes.com/b5/21/8/20/n13175143.htm 大纪元,大纪元新闻,大紀元,大紀元新聞,中共大外宣, 新華社 Support this podcast

Cet été nous rediffusons les Fréquence Asie les plus marquantes de l'année écoulée. En octobre dernier, nous nous penchions sur le Xinjiang, cette région de l'ouest de la Chine, plus précisément sur cette étude selon laquelle plus de 500 000 travailleurs ruraux auraient été convertis de force à des emplois salariés pour atteindre les objectifs politiques fixés par le président chinois...  Mutations forcées, camps de formation militarisés, déplacements de populations... En tout, plus de 500 000 travailleurs ruraux auraient été convertis de force à des emplois salariés pour atteindre les objectifs politiques fixés par le président chinois... Ce sont les conclusions d'une étude américaine publiée au nom de la Jamestown Foundation par le chercheur allemand Adrian Zenz, spécialiste de la Chine, qui fut parmi les premiers à mettre en évidence les abus perpétrés par le gouvernement chinois envers les minorités au Xinjiang.  RFI : Pourquoi faites-vous le rapprochement entre le sort des Ouïghours au Xinjiang et celui des travailleurs pauvres du Tibet ? Adrian Zenz : Le gouvernement chinois importe au Tibet des pratiques déjà éprouvées au Xinjiang. En l'occurrence, il s'agit d'un programme coercitif de formation et de relocalisation professionnelle, extrêmement centralisé et militarisé. Il consiste à placer les fermiers et les nomades tibétains, qui vivent sous le seuil de pauvreté, dans des camps de formation incluant des exercices militaires, afin d'organiser ensuite leur mutation professionnelle. Depuis le début de l'année 2020, les postes qui leur sont attribués se situent très souvent hors de la région du Tibet. La politique des autorités chinoises implique aussi de pousser ces travailleurs pauvres à renoncer à leurs terres et à leur bétail, qui sont cédés à des coopératives étatiques, dont ils deviennent actionnaires, avant d'être employés comme salariés dans des usines chinoises. Quelles sont les similitudes avec les programmes de « rééducation » mis en place au Xinjiang ? Il y a des schémas très proches au Xinjiang, notamment les rafles de travailleurs ruraux internés dans des bâtiments de formation militarisés, ainsi que les dispositifs de placement forcés mis en place à la sortie de ces camps d'internement. Dans les deux cas, l'accent est mis sur la remise en cause du mode de vie traditionnel d'une minorité « réticente au changement » et l'ambition d'effacer leur identité considérée comme « arriérée » par les autorités chinoises. ► À lire aussi : Ouïghours, une enquête fait état de 380 camps de détention dans le Xinjiang Quel serait l'objectif de ces pratiques dans le cas particulier du Tibet ? L'objectif politique à court terme, c'est d'épouser la promesse la plus emblématique du président chinois, Xi Jinping : l'éradication de la pauvreté. Il se trouve que la pauvreté se mesure en fonction des revenus déclarés, mais que les revenus des fermiers et des nomades tibétains sont très difficiles à identifier. Ils sont très souvent autosuffisants et peuvent vivre du troc ou du petit commerce des produits de leur terre, ce qui rend les mesures compliquées. Les autorités chinoises ne supportent pas cette incertitude, et le fait de forcer ces populations à prendre des emplois salariés permet de prétendre que les Tibétains ont été sortis de la pauvreté. Le deuxième objectif, c'est évidemment le contrôle social. Les fermiers et les nomades tibétains sont notoirement difficiles à contrôler, ils vivent de manière indépendante, suivent leur propre calendrier et les coutumes locales, ce qui représente depuis longtemps un affront, aux yeux de Pékin. Ces nouveaux dispositifs vont donner très rapidement à l'État chinois une capacité de contrôle considérable sur ces populations

Never have U.S. atrocity determinations, which are uncommon to begin with, happened against a country as wealthy and powerful as China, lead by the CCP (Chinese Communist Party). This bold justice initiative is galvanizing those around the world to rally against the atrocities taking place in Xinjiang Province.Background reading on this topic:Organ Procurement and Extrajudicial Execution in China: A Review of Evidence. (By Matthew Robertson, Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation, 3/10/2020)2020 Judgment – Independent Tribunal into Forced Organ Harvesting from Prisoners of Conscience in China (China Tribunal, 3/1/2020)Sterilizations, IUDs, and Mandatory Birth Control: The CCP’s Campaign to Suppress Uyghur Birthrates in Xinjiang (By Adrian Zenz, The Jamestown Foundation 3/17/2021)Who are the Uighurs and why is the US accusing China of genocide? (BBC, 2/9/21)Their goal is to destroy everyone': Uighur camp detainees allege systematic rape" (BBC, 2/2/21)A cultural genocide before our eyes (World Magazine, 2/2/20)Biden's Choice in China (First Things, 2/9/21)Keeping China accountable for Xinjiang (World Magazine, 1/29/21)There is now more evidence than ever that China is imprisoning Uighurs (The Guardian, 9/24/20)State Department Lawyers Concluded Insufficient Evidence to Prove Genocide in China (Foreign Policy, 2/19/21)Ambassador Morse Tan served as the U.S. Ambassador-at-Large for Global Criminal Justice, the top position in the federal government regarding mass atrocity crimes: genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes. As such, he led the efforts for the crimes against humanity legal determination and the genocide policy determination against the Chinese Communist Party, called "the single most important U.S. human rights measure of the past four years" (in First Things). Previously, he served as the youngest full professor of law at his institution, having published extensively, including the critically acclaimed book: "North Korea, International Law and the Dual Crises" (Routledge).Support the show (http://www.faithandlaw.org/donate)

Brian Babin, U.S. Representative for the 36th District of Texas, on President Biden’s first news conference as president and the latest on the border crisis. Matt Boyle, Washington Political Editor for Breitbart News Network, on his article: GOP Insiders Warn Companies Woke Leftism Paving Way for Corporate-Free Populist Republican Party. Jeff Laszloffy, President of the Montana Family Foundation, on Montana Governor Gianforte publicly endorsing the Religious Freedom Restoration Act moving through the Montana legislature. Adrian Zenz, Senior Fellow in China Studies at Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation, on Beijing shifting its strategy on Xinjiang, and on his new Jamestown Foundation report. --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/loving-liberty/support

This time our guest is Dr. Theodore Karasik and we will be speaking about geostrategic power rivalries in the Middle East and Africa. In this series of interviews with Dr. Stephen Blank, our guest is Dr. Theodore Karasik. Our discussion will turn to Africa, where we will discuss geostrategic power rivalries in the Middle East and Africa, for influence and access to energy, military bases, trade and strategic positioning. Dr. Theodore KARASIK is currently a Fellow, Russia and Middle East Affairs at the Jamestown Foundation and a Senior Advisor to Gulf State Analytics. He is also an Adjunct Senior Fellow at the Lexington Institute, all located in Washington, D.C. He is the co-author of “Russia in the Middle East” published in 2018. For the past 35 years, Karasik worked for a number of US agencies involved in researching and analyzing defense acquisition, the use of military power, and religio-political issues across MENA and Eurasia including the evolution of violent extremism and financing networks. Dr. Karasik lived in Dubai, UAE from 2006 until 2016 where he worked on Arabian Peninsula foreign policy and security issues surrounding cultural awareness, cybersecurity, maritime security, counter-piracy, counter-terrorism, and infrastructure and national resilience. Dr. Karasik worked for a number of UAE ministries and think-tanks covering regional and homeland security issues. Dr. Karasik was an Adjunct Lecturer at the Dubai School of Government where he taught graduate level international relations and also an Adjunct Lecturer at University Wollongong Dubai where he taught labor and migration. Karasik was a Senior Political Scientist in the International Policy and Security Group at RAND Corporation. From 2002-2003, he served as Director of Research for the RAND Center for Middle East Public Policy. He is a specialist in geopolitics and geo-economics for the MENA and Eurasia regions and frequently conducts studies and assessments of future security trajectories and military requirements in addition to cultural awareness issues surrounding traditionalism and tribalism in policymaking. Dr. Karasik received his Ph.D in History from the University of California, Los Angeles in four fields: Russia, Middle East, Caucasus and an outside field in cultural anthropology focusing on tribes and clans from Central Asia to East Africa. He wrote his dissertation on military and humanitarian operations in the northern port city of Arkhangel'sk and their impact on political institutions during the Russian civil war. --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/mediterranean-sustainable/message

60.bölümümüzde Dr. Orhah Gafarli ile daha önce yazmış olduğu Putinizm ve Putin Sonrası Rusya başlıklı yazısı etrafında bir yayın gerçekleştirdik. Keyifli Dinlemeler!İlgili yazıyı buradan okuyabilirsiniz.Dr. Orhan Gafarlı - Ankara Üniversitesi Uluslararası İlişkiler bölümünde ''Rus Dış Politikasında Kimlik Arayışı: Batı'dan Kopuşun Tarihsel Analizi'' başlıklı doktora tez çalışması ile tamamlamıştır. Gafarlı, Harvard Üniversitesi'nde 2017- 2018 yılları arası Davis Rusya ve Avrasya Araştırmaları Merkezi'nde misafir araştırmacıydı. The Jamestown Foundation'da Türkiye-Rusya ilişkileri, enerji politikaları üzerine analizler yazıyor. 2012-2014 yılları arasında BİLGESAM'da Avrasya üzerine araştırmacı olarak çalıştı. 2015 yılında “Avrasya Çıkmazı: Yeni Büyük Oyunu Kim Kazanacak?” başlıklı bir kitap yayınladı.

This event is sponsored by the Asia Initiative Lecture Series at The Institute of World Politics. About the lecture: Hitherto, almost all writings about Beijing's espionage and influence operations have focused on individual cases that shed little light on the actual nature of China's organs of state security. Dr. Matthew Brazil will speak about how he and his co-author researched original sources in Chinese and unearthed new insights into Beijing's most secret operations at home and abroad. About the Speaker: Matt Brazil is a non-resident Fellow at The Jamestown Foundation. He worked in Asia for over 20 years as a U.S. Army officer, American diplomat, and corporate security manager. He is the co-author of Chinese Communist Espionage: An Intelligence Primer (Annapolis: Naval Institute Press, Nov 2019). More information on the book and this topic may be viewed at https://www.mattbrazil.net/. The author's compendium of espionage terms in Chinese and photos from the world of Chinese Communist espionage may be seen at https://www.ccpintelterms.com/.

SPY Historian & Curator Andrew Hammond sits down with Dr. Matthew Brazil, a non-resident fellow of the Jamestown Foundation, to discuss Chinese Communist Espionage. This is the first of a two-part podcast that will include the chance to win signed copies of the book. 谢谢

Au Tibet, la Chine aurait mis en place des dispositifs proches de ceux observés dans la province du Xinjiang. Mutations forcées, camps de formation militarisés, déplacements de populations... En tout, plus de 500 000 travailleurs ruraux auraient été convertis de force à des emplois salariés pour atteindre les objectifs politiques fixés par le président chinois... Ce sont les conclusions d’une étude américaine publiée au nom de la Jamestown Foundation par le chercheur allemand Adrian Zenz, spécialiste de la Chine, qui fut parmi les premiers à mettre en évidence les abus perpétrés par le gouvernement chinois envers les minorités au Xinjiang.  RFI : Pourquoi faites-vous le rapprochement entre le sort des Ouïghours au Xinjiang et celui des travailleurs pauvres du Tibet ? Adrian Zenz : Le gouvernement chinois importe au Tibet des pratiques déjà éprouvées au Xinjiang. En l’occurrence, il s’agit d’un programme coercitif de formation et de relocalisation professionnelle, extrêmement centralisé et militarisé. Il consiste à placer les fermiers et les nomades tibétains, qui vivent sous le seuil de pauvreté, dans des camps de formation incluant des exercices militaires, afin d’organiser ensuite leur mutation professionnelle. Depuis le début de l’année 2020, les postes qui leur sont attribués se situent très souvent hors de la région du Tibet. La politique des autorités chinoises implique aussi de pousser ces travailleurs pauvres à renoncer à leurs terres et à leur bétail, qui sont cédés à des coopératives étatiques, dont ils deviennent actionnaires, avant d’être employés comme salariés dans des usines chinoises. Quelles sont les similitudes avec les programmes de « rééducation » mis en place au Xinjiang ? Il y a des schémas très proches au Xinjiang, notamment les rafles de travailleurs ruraux internés dans des bâtiments de formation militarisés, ainsi que les dispositifs de placement forcés mis en place à la sortie de ces camps d’internement. Dans les deux cas, l’accent est mis sur la remise en cause du mode de vie traditionnel d’une minorité « réticente au changement » et l’ambition d’effacer leur identité considérée comme « arriérée » par les autorités chinoises. ► À lire aussi : Ouïghours, une enquête fait état de 380 camps de détention dans le Xinjiang Quel serait l’objectif de ces pratiques dans le cas particulier du Tibet ? L’objectif politique à court terme, c’est d’épouser la promesse la plus emblématique du président chinois, Xi Jinping : l’éradication de la pauvreté. Il se trouve que la pauvreté se mesure en fonction des revenus déclarés, mais que les revenus des fermiers et des nomades tibétains sont très difficiles à identifier. Ils sont très souvent autosuffisants et peuvent vivre du troc ou du petit commerce des produits de leur terre, ce qui rend les mesures compliquées. Les autorités chinoises ne supportent pas cette incertitude, et le fait de forcer ces populations à prendre des emplois salariés permet de prétendre que les Tibétains ont été sortis de la pauvreté. Le deuxième objectif, c’est évidemment le contrôle social. Les fermiers et les nomades tibétains sont notoirement difficiles à contrôler, ils vivent de manière indépendante, suivent leur propre calendrier et les coutumes locales, ce qui représente depuis longtemps un affront, aux yeux de Pékin. Ces nouveaux dispositifs vont donner très rapidement à l’État chinois une capacité de contrôle considérable sur ces populations

West Coast Cookbook & Speakeasy is Now Open! 8am-9am PT/ 11am-Noon ET for our especially special Daily Specials; Blue Moon Spirits FridaysStarting off in the Bistro Cafe, the lack of a national COVID-19 testing program leaves nursing homes across the country the most at risk.Then, on the rest of the menu, Pentagon leaders say more navy ships face outbreaks like the one aboard the Theodore Roosevelt that infected four hundred sailors; Bill Barr whined that the media is on a ‘jihad' for reporting the truth about Trump's 'miracle' drug; and, Dr Anthony Fauci insisted there is 'absolutely no evidence' the coronavirus death toll is being inflated, but nobody asked if higher totals are actually being suppressed.After the break, we move to the Chef's Table where Pacific Island nations stay vigilant against the coronavirus pandemic in the aftermath of the Cat 5 Cyclone Harold; and, the center-right US research institute, The Jamestown Foundation, said Russia's move to label it ‘undesirable,' will not affect its operations.All that and more, on West Coast Cookbook & Speakeasy with Chef de Cuisine Justice Putnam.Bon Appétit!~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~“Structural linguistics is a bitterly divided and unhappy profession, and a large number of its practitioners spend many nights drowning their sorrows in Ouisghian Zodahs.” ― Douglas Adams "The Restaurant at the End of the Universe"~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Show Notes & Links: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/4/10/1936056/-West-Coast-Cookbook-amp-Speakeasy-Daily-Special-Blue-Moon-Spirits-Fridays

In the rapidly evolving context of a world impacted by the novel corona virus, Johan van de Ven discusses travel bans, material aid and donations, and border restrictions between China and Belt and Road Initiative partner countries. He focuses particularly on incidents of anti-Chinese discrimination in Moscow, material assistance to China given by countries from Thailand to Turkey, and stalls in Chinese infrastructural projects abroad. Check out Johan's articles in the Jamestown Foundation's China Brief: - Fair Weather Friends: The Impact of the Coronavirus on the Strategic Partnership between Russia and China?- Limited Payoffs: What have BRI Investments Delivered for China Amid the Coronavirus Outbreak?Recommendations: Johan: Panda Paw Dragon Claw's recent article, "Railpolitik: the strengths and pitfalls of Chinese-financed African Railways", Chinese Storytellers Newsletter, and for de-stressing: Parks and Recreation Juliet: Naomi Klein’s Coronavirus Capitalism video Erik: Whistleblower: My journey to Silicon Valley and Justice at Uber by Susan Fowler, Know My Name: A Memoir by Chanel Miller, and for de-stressing: Curb Your Enthusiasm's latest season

Matt Brazil joins the podcast to discuss coronavirus. He is a research fellow at the Jamestown Foundation and co-author of Chinese Communist Espionage: An Intelligence Primer. Link on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Chinese-Communist-Espionage-Intelligence-Primer/dp/1682473031 Link to Yanzhong Huang referred to in the podcast: https://www.cfr.org/expert/yanzhong-huang --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/dankingston/message

More and more countries have signed on to China's Belt and Road Initiative, but "the increase in political partners has not led to a comparable increase in commercial activity." Cecilia Joy Perez discusses contracting amounts of capital invested along the BRI despite expanding formal participation, which she attributes to shrinking foreign exchange reserves and shifts in the sectors most actively targeted by BRI investments. Based on Cecilia's recent article, "The Belt and Road Initiative Adds More Partners, But Beijing Has Fewer Dollars to Spend" in The Jamestown Foundation's China Brief.And check out our recommendations for this week: Cecilia: 1) China Global Investment Tracker 2) Princess Mononoke the film Juliet: "Rare Earth Frontiers" by Julie KlingerErik: 1) Clientelism at work? A case study of Kenyan Standard Gauge Railway project by Yuan Wang & Uwe Wissenbach 2) Parasite the film

Elliot Brazil, host of the Are You Shipping Me podcast is joined today by Walt Beadling, Matt Brazil, and Erik Hoffer. Walt is a managing partner at both the Cargo Security Alliance where he provides thought leadership, tools and techniques for the mitigation of supply chain risks as well as Cayuga Partners LLC where he helps clients manage, plan, and optimize manufacturing and supply chain operations Matt is currently a Research Fellow at the Jamestown Foundation - he recently published Chinese Communist Espionage: An Intelligence Primer with co-author Peter Mattis. Prior to the Jamestown Foundation, Matt was involved in cargo theft investigations and intellectual property security in the corporate world. Erik Hoffer is the president of CGM Security Solutions Inc. and Rig Secure, Inc., both are manufacturers of security products and technology designed to mitigate and prevent cargo theft incidents. He is also a partner at the Cargo Security Alliance.

Why is Hong Kong’s special status most likely permanently over, in the eyes of preeminent China scholar Arthur Waldron? What key mistakes have US leaders, such as Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger, made in regards to China over the past five decades? Why does Waldron believe the Chinese communist regime is entering a phase of disintegration? And how does the situation parallel that of the Soviet Union? This is American Thought Leaders

As the federal election campaign picks up steam, federal officials should be ready to counter possible Russian disinformation campaigns targeting Canadians, says a Russian expert. Sergey Sukhankin, a senior fellow with the Jamestown Foundation, a U.S. think-tank, who is teaching… »

As the federal election campaign picks up steam, federal officials should be ready to counter possible Russian disinformation campaigns targeting Canadians, says Sergey Sukhankin, a senior fellow with the Jamestown Foundation, a U.S. think-tank, who is teaching at the Concordia University of Edmonton.

Sergey Sukhankin, a senior fellow with the Jamestown Foundation, a U.S. think-tank, who is teaching at the Concordia University of Edmonton, says Russian and Canadian interests collide in the Arctic, in Ukraine and in the Baltic states, making Canada a likely target for Russian disinformation operations.

Force for Hire's hosts have focused primarily on American military contracting. We're changing it up this week as Michelle and Desmon look at a private Russian paramilitary force that is a global threat, even though it isn't formally recognized by its government.  The Wagner Group, believed to be run by former Russian military intelligence officer Dmitriy Utkin, is shrouded in secrecy. A 2017 Bloomberg article placed its membership as high as 6,000, even though mercenary forces are not allowed under Russian law. (https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2017-12-06/putin-wants-to-win-but-not-at-all-costs) The group has reportedly worked in Africa, Sudan, Libya, Yemen, Ukraine and Syria. In early 2018, forces believed to be a part of the Wagner Group engaged in a battle with U.S.-led Syrian Democratic Forces troops near the Syrian town of Khasham. That led to a U.S. airstrike that killed numerous Russian mercenaries fighting alongside pro-Syrian government forces. Some reports put the number of Russian deaths as high as 200, although that has been contested. (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/13/russian-mercenaries-killed-us-airstrikes-syria) Critics allege that Russia uses mercenaries in Syria to keep official military losses low. Even with high-profile battles, the Wagner Group largely flies under the radar, leaving questions about its members and its mission, and who's ultimately calling the shots. To help explain the issues, Force for Hire welcomes Sergey Sukhankin, a research fellow at the Jamestown Foundation think tank in Washington; and Peer Schouten, a senior researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies, a research institute in Denmark.  ogether, they'll talk about how the Wagner Group and other Russian contractors are influencing policies, affecting trade and shaping the politics of central African nations. Their operations on that continent remains a hot topic among the contracting community and those that follow it. Schouten and Sukhankin explain all this and more on the latest episode of Force for Hire. podcast@stripes.com

Force for Hire’s hosts have focused primarily on American military contracting. We’re changing it up this week as Michelle and Desmon look at a private Russian paramilitary force that is a global threat, even though it isn’t formally recognized by its government.  The Wagner Group, believed to be run by former Russian military intelligence officer Dmitriy Utkin, is shrouded in secrecy. A 2017 Bloomberg article placed its membership as high as 6,000, even though mercenary forces are not allowed under Russian law. (https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2017-12-06/putin-wants-to-win-but-not-at-all-costs) The group has reportedly worked in Africa, Sudan, Libya, Yemen, Ukraine and Syria. In early 2018, forces believed to be a part of the Wagner Group engaged in a battle with U.S.-led Syrian Democratic Forces troops near the Syrian town of Khasham. That led to a U.S. airstrike that killed numerous Russian mercenaries fighting alongside pro-Syrian government forces. Some reports put the number of Russian deaths as high as 200, although that has been contested. (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/13/russian-mercenaries-killed-us-airstrikes-syria) Critics allege that Russia uses mercenaries in Syria to keep official military losses low. Even with high-profile battles, the Wagner Group largely flies under the radar, leaving questions about its members and its mission, and who’s ultimately calling the shots. To help explain the issues, Force for Hire welcomes Sergey Sukhankin, a research fellow at the Jamestown Foundation think tank in Washington; and Peer Schouten, a senior researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies, a research institute in Denmark.  ogether, they’ll talk about how the Wagner Group and other Russian contractors are influencing policies, affecting trade and shaping the politics of central African nations. Their operations on that continent remains a hot topic among the contracting community and those that follow it. Schouten and Sukhankin explain all this and more on the latest episode of Force for Hire. podcast@stripes.com

What threat does a revisionist China pose to the United States and democratically minded states around the world? Where should we look to find out the intentions of the Chinese Communist Party? If left unchecked, will China export its illiberal form of government? These and other questions are explored in this week’s episode of Jaw-Jaw. For a full transcript of this interview, click here.    Biographies  Peter Mattis is a Research Fellow in China Studies at the Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation and a contributing editor at War on the Rocks. He was a Fellow in the China Program at The Jamestown Foundation, where he also served as editor of the foundation’s China Brief, a biweekly electronic journal on greater China, from 2011 to 2013. He previously worked as an analyst for the Central Intelligence Agency for four years. Prior to entering government service, Mr. Mattis worked as a research associate at the National Bureau of Asian Research in its Strategic Asia and Northeast Asian Studies programs, providing research assistance and editing support.   Brad Carson is a professor at the University of Virginia, where he teaches in the Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy. He served in the U.S. House of Representatives from 2001-2005 and was Undersecretary of the Army and acting Undersecretary of Defense for Personnel & Readiness in the Obama administration. He welcomes comments at brad.carson@warontherocks.com.   Links Elizabeth Economy, The Third Revolution: Xi Jinping and the New Chinese State, (Oxford University Press, 2018) Jonathan Ward, China's Vision of Victory, (Atlas Publishing and Media Company, 2019) Adam Brookes, The Night Heron, (Redhook, 2014) Adam Brookes, Spy Games, (Redhook, 2015) Adam Brookes, The Spy's Daughter, (Sphere, 2017)   Music and Production by Tre Hester

Stephen Ulph is a Senior Fellow at the Jamestown Foundation and Founder and Former Editor of Jane’s Terrorism Security Monitor.

Stephen Ulph is a member of the board of the Westminster institute and Senior Fellow with The Jamestown Foundation. One of the preeminent analysts of the Islamic world, Mr. Ulph specializes in the analysis of jihadist and Islamist ideology and regularly lectures on aspects of Islamist and Jihadist ideology impacting on Western democracies and the course of the war on terrorism. He is the founder and former editor of Islamic Affairs Analyst and Terrorism Security Monitor for Jane’s Information Group. His publications include an analysis on jihadism in Syria for the CTC, an ideological analysis of the ‘Virtual Border Conflict’ (the online arena for Islamist extremism) for The Borders of Islam, an in-depth examination of the relationship of Islamism to other totalitarian systems of thought in Fighting the Ideological War, and a 4-part reference work, Towards a Curriculum for the Teaching of Jihadist Ideology, available online at the Jamestown Foundation. He is also the Director of The Reform Project and its bi-lingual website Almuslih (‘The Reformer’ www.almuslih.org) which supports Arab reformist writers and promotes their work to an English-language readership. Follow us at westminster-institute.org and youtube.com/user/WestminsterInstitute

Oklahoma State University President Burns Hargis sits down with Glen Howard, President of the Jamestown Foundation. Howard, an OSU alumnus discusses the complicated relationship between the United States and Russia.

Bin Laden read Qutb's books when he was a student, and he was familiar with Muhammad Qutb, regularly attending the latter's weekly public lectures. The former CIA official who oversaw the group in charge of bin Laden, Michael Scheuer, also senior researcher at The Jamestown Foundation, described Muhammad Qutb as bin Laden's mentor.

Bin Laden read Qutb’s books when he was a student, and he was familiar with Muhammad Qutb, regularly attending the latter’s weekly public lectures. The former CIA official who oversaw the group in charge of bin Laden, Michael Scheuer, also senior researcher at The Jamestown Foundation, described Muhammad Qutb as bin Laden’s mentor.

Bin Laden read Qutb’s books when he was a student, and he was familiar with Muhammad Qutb, regularly attending the latter’s weekly public lectures. The former CIA official who oversaw the group in charge of bin Laden, Michael Scheuer, also senior researcher at The Jamestown Foundation, described Muhammad Qutb as bin Laden’s mentor.

Bin Laden read Qutb’s books when he was a student, and he was familiar with Muhammad Qutb, regularly attending the latter’s weekly public lectures. The former CIA official who oversaw the group in charge of bin Laden, Michael Scheuer, also senior researcher at The Jamestown Foundation, described Muhammad Qutb as bin Laden’s mentor.

Bin Laden read Qutb's books when he was a student, and he was familiar with Muhammad Qutb, regularly attending the latter's weekly public lectures. The former CIA official who oversaw the group in charge of bin Laden, Michael Scheuer, also senior researcher at The Jamestown Foundation, described Muhammad Qutb as bin Laden's mentor.

About the Lecture: In a gathering trend previously discounted by some analysts, China is building the means to achieve global military power projection. By the 2030s China's People's Liberation Army will have robust and growing capabilities in the areas of maritime and airmobile global power projection, and will be contesting control of the Earth-Moon system. The United States can continue to deter China into the 2030s by achieving early astro-strategic advantages, staying ahead in emerging 6th generation warfare paradigms and doubling down with allies to build robust deterrent networks. About the Speaker: Rick Fisher is a Senior Fellow on Asian Military Affairs at the International Assessment and Strategy Center. Fisher is a recognized authority on the PRC military and the Asian military balance and their implications for Asia and the United States. His most recent book is China's Military Modernization: Building for Regional and Global Reach. Fisher has worked on Asian security matters for over 20 years in a range of critical positions — as Asian Studies Director at the Heritage Foundation, Senior Analyst for Chairman Chris Cox's Policy Committee in support of the report of the Select Committee for US National Security and Military/Commercial Concerns with the People's Republic of China, and a consultant on PLA issues for the Congressionally chartered US China Security & Economic Review Commission. The author of nearly 200 studies on challenges to American security, economic and foreign policy in Asia, Fisher is a frequent commentator on Asian issues for radio and television and has testified before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, the House International Relations Committee, the House Armed Services Committee, and the U.S. China Security Commission, on the modernization of China's military. Fisher has been Editor of the Jamestown Foundation's China Brief, and a regular contributor to publications such as the Wall Street Journal, Far Eastern Economic Review, Jane's Intelligence Review, National Interest, Air Forces Monthly, and World Airpower Journal. He has served as an election observer in Cambodia, the Philippines, South Korea and Taiwan, and performed field research in China, Taiwan, Russia, India and Pakistan. Fisher studied at Georgetown University and at Eisenhower College where he received his BA with honors. He is currently President of Pacific Strategies, Inc.

The Belt and Road Initiative is one of Xi Jinping’s flagship policies. It doesn’t sound very exciting - or intelligible - but it aims to connect China to the West over land and by sea. The scale and eye watering sums of money involved are making people sit up and take notice, and have raised accusations of debt-trap diplomacy with many countries involved being brought to the brink of bankruptcy. What’s going on? We spoke to Matt Schrader from the Jamestown Foundation to find out more.

On the inaugural episode of The Belt and Road Podcast, host Erik Myxter-iino brings on Emily Weinstein, a research analyst at Pointe Bellow. Emily talks about her piece featured on the Jamestown Foundation's website "The Belt and Road Initiative: A road to China's World Cup Dreams?" which talks about the BRI and its relation to Sports Tourism and the World CupEmily's Recommendation: The China Soccer Observatory www.nottingham.ac.uk/asiaresearch/p…cso/index.aspxEmily's article: jamestown.org/program/the-belt-a…-world-cup-dreams/Follow the Belt and Road Podcast twitter: @beltandroadpod facebook: www.facebook.com/beltandroadpod

In this episode, we examine what transpired at the Chinese Communist Party’s 19 Party Congress. We discuss the significance of the Party Congress’ outcomes and its implications for Chinese President Xi's authority. What will Xi do with his growing power? Peter Mattis is a Fellow in the China Program at The Jamestown Foundation, where he served as editor of the foundation’s China Brief, a biweekly electronic journal on greater China, from 2011 to 2013. He previously worked in the U.S. Government and the National Bureau of Asian Research. He is the author of Analyzing the Chinese Military: A Review Essay and Resource Guide on the People’s Liberation Army (2015).

The just-held 19th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has conferred President Xi Jinping with unprecedented authority. He is now the Party’s second more powerful leader after Mao Zedong. Xi has solid control over the Party, the State and the People’s Liberation Army. It looks probable that Xi will remain China’s paramount leader at least until 2027, if not 2032. Questions remain, however, as to whether Xi, who is an arch-conservative and unabashed Maoist, will use his powers for political, social and economic reforms. Given his top priority of maintaining the CCP as China’s “perennial ruling party” – and in light of his insistence on the Party’s control over key economic sectors as well as the civil society – what are the prospects for thorough-going reforms? Dr Willy Lam (Chinese University of Hong Kong and The Jamestown Foundation) looks into these questions and addresses Xi’s ambitious foreign-policy agenda, including likely changes in Beijing’s policy toward the Special Administrative Region of Hong Kong. This lecture was held as part of Sydney Ideas program on 8 November 2017: http://sydney.edu.au/sydney_ideas/lectures/2017/dr_willy_lam.shtml

FULL INTERVIEW WITH NICHOLAS HERAS OF CNAS (Subject matter expert for Episode 2 "Guilty Until Proven Innocent". This is the full WebEx audio interview with Nicholas Heras of Center for a New American Security in Washington D.C. Nicholas discusses the key differences between U.S. and Euro migration and refugee flows and details the security vetting process for refugees coming to the U.S. He also explains the multilayered components that affect national security but are not covered as much in the press. Nicholas Heras is an international expert on national security and the analysis of complex conflicts and security issues in the greater Middle East and North Africa, including Syria, Lebanon, and Jordan as well as Turkey and the Gulf. He has provided expert analysis for the National Intelligence Council, National Security Council, US Central Command, US Special Operations Command, the US State Department’s Policy Planning staff, and US Naval War College - Center for Irregular Warfare and Armed Groups. He is also a frequent commentator to the national and international media -- appearing on National Public Radio, Public Radio International, the BBC World Service, CBS Nightly News, Fox News, Al-Jazeera. He is often quoted in The Washington Post, The WSJ, CNN.com, The Associated Press, The Christian Science Monitor, Newsweek, USA Today, Voice of America, US News and World Report, Foreign Policy and many more. Nicholas works as Middle East Security Fellow at the Center for a New American Security specializing in the Middle East Security Program and he is also a Senior Analyst for the Jamestown Foundation. He is the author of "From the Bottom Up: A Strategy for US Military Support for Syria’s Armed Opposition" and has co-authored and authored numerous scholarly articles.

Michael Scheuer is a twenty-plus-year CIA veteran. From 1996 to 1999, he served as the Chief of the bin Laden unit (aka Alec Station), the Osama bin Laden tracking unit at the Counterterrorism Center. He then worked as Special Adviser to the Chief of the bin Laden unit from September 2001 to November 2004. He resigned from the CIA in 2004. He is currently an Adjunct Professor of Security Studies at Georgetown University and a Senior Fellow at the Jamestown Foundation, writing regularly for its online publication Global Terrorism Analysis. Trump embraces America First, gives the republic a chance to survive and its foes apoplexy http://non-intervention.com/2185/trump-embraces-america-first-gives-the-republic-a-chance-to-survive-and-its-foes-apoplexy/

Michael Scheuer is a twenty-plus-year CIA veteran. From 1996 to 1999, he served as the Chief of the bin Laden unit (aka Alec Station), the Osama bin Laden tracking unit at the Counterterrorism Center. He then worked as Special Adviser to the Chief of the bin Laden unit from September 2001 to November 2004. He resigned from the CIA in 2004. He is currently an Adjunct Professor of Security Studies at Georgetown University and a Senior Fellow at the Jamestown Foundation, writing regularly for its online publication Global Terrorism Analysis. Trump embraces America First, gives the republic a chance to survive and its foes apoplexy http://non-intervention.com/2185/trump-embraces-america-first-gives-the-republic-a-chance-to-survive-and-its-foes-apoplexy/

Boko Haram is in the news for all the wrong reasons. A series of audactious attacks, including the kidnapping of hundreds of school girls, has provoked international outrage. But why would Boko Haram launch such an attack? Who are these people, what do they want, and how can they be defeated?  Mark Leon Goldberg catches up with Jacob Zenn of the Jamestown Foundation who offers insight, context and an explanation for the Boko Haram insurgency. Have a listen.