Podcasts about noise a flaw

Pastors facing up to our imposter syndrome - navigating the noise that leads us to make bad decisions.As Pastors, we feel the pressure to have the right answers to people's questions.We want to be able to navigate the complexities of life and church and land everyone safely at the other end. People share with us and the hardest parts of their lives, they trust us with their most private issues, and time and their money.And they trust us that we will handle the most complex relationship difficulties with wisdom. We end up feeling like imposters. Who am I to lead the people of God?  And how can I have wisdom here? Archie Poulos from Sydney's Moore Theological College has found the secular book Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment helpful as he has addressed these issues.The Church Cohttp://www.thechurchco.com is a website and app platform built specifically for churches. Reach Australia National ConferenceReach Australia's National Conference is happening from 19 to 22 May 2025 on the Central Coast of NSW. This year's theme is URGENT: The Necessary Task of Mission Before Christ Returns. For more info. Anglican AidAnglican Aid - To find out more about how to support Anglican Aid. Dominic Steele's preaching at Village Subscribe to Dominic Steele's weekly sermons from the Village Church website. Support the show--Become a regular financial supporter of The Pastor's Heart via Patreon.

Chapter 1:Summary of NoiseIn "Noise," Daniel Kahneman discusses the concept of noise, which refers to unwanted variability in judgments made by different individuals assessing the same situation. He argues that noise can have a significant impact on decision-making, often leading to inconsistencies and errors.Kahneman shows that noise is prevalent in various fields, from medicine to law to finance, and can have negative consequences on outcomes. He points out that while people are aware of the dangers of bias in decision-making, they often overlook the issue of noise.The author offers ways to reduce noise, such as creating decision-making guidelines and using algorithms to make judgments more consistent. He also suggests that organizations should be more transparent and open about their decision-making processes to prevent noise from affecting their outcomes.Overall, "Noise" highlights the importance of recognizing and addressing the issue of noise in decision-making to improve outcomes and reduce errors.Chapter 2:The Theme of NoiseKey plot points:1. The story follows the protagonist, a psychologist named Jordan, who is conducting research on the impact of noise on decision making.2. Jordan discovers that noise – unpredictable variability in judgments made by different individuals or groups on the same problem – can have a significant impact on decision making, even more so than bias.3. Jordan's research leads him to question the validity of traditional decision-making processes, as he realizes that noise can result in inconsistent and unreliable outcomes.Character development:1. Jordan is a meticulous and analytical thinker, dedicated to his research and committed to uncovering the truth about noise and its impact on decision making.2. As Jordan delves deeper into his research, he becomes increasingly disillusioned with traditional decision-making processes and begins to question the reliability of human judgment.3. Jordan's journey forces him to confront his own biases and preconceived notions, as he grapples with the implications of his findings on his own work and beliefs.Thematic ideas:1. The impact of noise on decision making: The novel explores how seemingly minor variations in judgments can have significant consequences on decision making, highlighting the importance of minimizing noise in order to improve outcomes.2. The fallibility of human judgment: Through Jordan's research, the novel challenges the notion of human rationality and highlights the inherent biases and inconsistencies in decision-making processes.3. The importance of evidence-based decision making: Noise emphasizes the value of using data and evidence to inform decision making, rather than relying on intuition or gut feelings.Chapter 3:Meet the Writer of NoiseIn his book "Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment," Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman masterfully employs his writing skills and language style to convey the complex emotions and meanings associated with the concept of noise.Kahneman's writing is clear, concise, and accessible, making it easy for readers to understand the intricate concepts he presents. He uses simple language to explain complex ideas, which helps to demystify the subject matter and make it more relatable to a wide audience. This approach allows Kahneman to effectively communicate the significance of noise in decision-making processes without overwhelming readers with technical jargon.Moreover, Kahneman's writing style is engaging and persuasive, drawing readers in with compelling narratives and relatable examples. He skillfully weaves together stories, studies, and real-world anecdotes to illustrate the prevalence and impact of noise in various aspects of human judgment. By presenting information in a compelling and relatable...

In this captivating episode of the podcast, I sit down with the renowned author and self-directed learning enthusiast, Scott H. Young, to dive into the intricacies of mastering new skills and the science of learning. Scott, known for his groundbreaking work on rapid skill acquisition, shares his unique insights into writing, learning, and the critical role of research in personal development.Throughout our discussion, Scott and I explore a variety of topics from the practical to the philosophical, all centered around how we can better understand and improve our ability to learn and perform. Whether you're a student, a professional, or simply a lifelong learner, this episode is packed with valuable lessons and actionable advice.Key Discussion Points Research and Writing Nonfiction: How Scott structures his work and breaks down complex subjects into understandable segments. Cultural Misunderstandings: Dealing with geographical misconceptions and the importance of accurate cultural representation. Principles of Learning and Memory: Insights into the cognitive science that enhances our learning capabilities. Role of AI in Education: A discussion on how artificial intelligence is reshaping learning environments and educational methods. Importance of Repetition and Variability: Scott emphasizes how these factors influence skill improvement and adaptability. Mental Models and Dynamic Skills: The significance of mental frameworks in mastering new skills and solving problems. Research Depth: Balancing between extensive research and the practicality of writing. As we wrapped up our conversation, it became clear that understanding the process of learning itself is as crucial as the knowledge we seek to gain. Scott's perspectives not only enrich our approach to learning but also challenge us to rethink how we teach and acquire new skills in an ever-evolving world. Don't forget to check out Scott's book, "Get Better at Anything," and explore more of his profound insights on his website.Links Worth Exploring Connect with Scott: Website | X/Twitter | LinkedIn | YouTube Get Scott's Book: Get Better at Anything That Jim Gaffigan Special: Learn more about it here Why Are Humans Suddenly Getting Better at Tetris? What is The Great Mental Models Project? Check it out. Another book to check out: Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment Related Conversation: Episode 256: Understanding Ultralearning with Scott H. Young Related Blog Post: More Better Thanks to all of the sponsors of this episode. You can find all of the sponsors you heard me mention on this episode on our Podcast Sponsors page.Want to support the podcast? Beyond checking out our sponsors, you can subscribe to the show wherever you listen to podcasts. You can subscribe on Spotify and also on Apple Podcasts. Not using either of those to get your podcasts? Just click on this link and then paste the podcast feed into your podcast app of choice.Thanks again for listening to A Productive Conversation. See you later.Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this captivating episode of the podcast, I sit down with the renowned author and self-directed learning enthusiast, Scott H. Young, to dive into the intricacies of mastering new skills and the science of learning. Scott, known for his groundbreaking work on rapid skill acquisition, shares his unique insights into writing, learning, and the critical role of research in personal development. Throughout our discussion, Scott and I explore a variety of topics from the practical to the philosophical, all centered around how we can better understand and improve our ability to learn and perform. Whether you're a student, a professional, or simply a lifelong learner, this episode is packed with valuable lessons and actionable advice. Key Discussion Points Research and Writing Nonfiction: How Scott structures his work and breaks down complex subjects into understandable segments. Cultural Misunderstandings: Dealing with geographical misconceptions and the importance of accurate cultural representation. Principles of Learning and Memory: Insights into the cognitive science that enhances our learning capabilities. Role of AI in Education: A discussion on how artificial intelligence is reshaping learning environments and educational methods. Importance of Repetition and Variability: Scott emphasizes how these factors influence skill improvement and adaptability. Mental Models and Dynamic Skills: The significance of mental frameworks in mastering new skills and solving problems. Research Depth: Balancing between extensive research and the practicality of writing. As we wrapped up our conversation, it became clear that understanding the process of learning itself is as crucial as the knowledge we seek to gain. Scott's perspectives not only enrich our approach to learning but also challenge us to rethink how we teach and acquire new skills in an ever-evolving world. Don't forget to check out Scott's book, "Get Better at Anything," and explore more of his profound insights on his website. Links Worth Exploring Connect with Scott: Website | X/Twitter | LinkedIn | YouTube Get Scott's Book: Get Better at Anything That Jim Gaffigan Special: Learn more about it here Why Are Humans Suddenly Getting Better at Tetris? What is The Great Mental Models Project? Check it out. Another book to check out: Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment Related Conversation: Episode 256: Understanding Ultralearning with Scott H. Young Related Blog Post: More Better Thanks to all of the sponsors of this episode. You can find all of the sponsors you heard me mention on this episode on our Podcast Sponsors page. Want to support the podcast? Beyond checking out our sponsors, you can subscribe to the show wherever you listen to podcasts. You can subscribe on Spotify and also on Apple Podcasts. Not using either of those to get your podcasts? Just click on this link and then paste the podcast feed into your podcast app of choice. Thanks again for listening to A Productive Conversation. See you later. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Some people are pro not telling your friends everything because you never know who you can trust. But I'm not here to deliver that message or tell you to watch your back. Frankly, we've all heard enough friendship horror stories of betrayal. For me, this is not an issue of trust but an issue of noise! This topic divides people, and rightly so! Sharing is a huge part of bonding and receiving support in friendships. So, I'm not here to promote secrecy but discernment. Join me as I share the four types of noise: noise that clouds your judgment, noise that kills, unnecessary noise, and noise about you. If you leave this episode with anything, let it be "wherever there is judgment, there is noise - and more of it than you think" (excerpt from Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment). --- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/mfl/message

Nobel laureate, bestselling author, and groundbreaking psychologist Daniel Kahneman died in March. In 2021 he talked with Steve Levitt — his friend and former business partner — about his book Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment (cowritten with Olivier Sibony and Cass Sunstein) and much more. SOURCES:Daniel Kahneman, professor emeritus of psychology and public affairs at Princeton University. RESOURCES:Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment, by Olivier Sibony, Daniel Kahneman, and Cass R. Sunstein (2021).Thinking, Fast and Slow, by Daniel Kahneman (2011). EXTRAS:"What's the Secret to Making a Great Prediction?" by No Stupid Questions (2021)."The Men Who Started a Thinking Revolution," by Freakonomics Radio (2017)."How to Be Less Terrible at Predicting the Future," by Freakonomics Radio (2016).

When it comes to the eventual end of our universe, cosmologists have a few classic theories: the Big Crunch, where the universe reverses its expansion and contracts again, setting the stars themselves on fire in the process. Or the Big Rip, where the universe expands forever—but in a fundamentally unstable way that tears matter itself apart. Or it might be heat death, in which matter and energy become equally distributed in a cold, eventless soup.These theories have continued to evolve as we gain new understandings from particle accelerators and astronomical observations. As our understanding of fundamental physics advances, new ideas about the ending are joining the list. Take vacuum decay, a theory that's been around since the 1970s, but which gained new support when CERN confirmed detection of the Higgs Boson particle. The nice thing about vacuum decay, writes cosmologist Dr. Katie Mack in her book The End of Everything: (Astrophysically Speaking), is that it could happen at any time, and would be almost instantaneous—painless, efficient.The End Of Everything is our SciFri Book Club pick for April—you can join in on the community conversation and maybe even win a free book on our book club page. In this interview from 2020, Mack joins Ira to talk about the diversity of universe-ending theories, and how cosmologists like her think about the big questions, like where the universe started, how it might end, and what happens after it does.Also, Nobel Prize-winning psychologist Dr. Daniel Kahneman died this week at the age of 90. His work turned many traditional ideas about economics upside-down, arguing that people often make bad decisions that go against their own self-interest. It's something he continued to study throughout his career, and that he wrote about in the 2022 book Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment. At the end of this segment, we revisit an interview from 2022 with Kahneman in remembrance of his long career studying cognitive biases.Transcripts for each segment will be available after the show airs on sciencefriday.com. Subscribe to this podcast. Plus, to stay updated on all things science, sign up for Science Friday's newsletters.

Nobel prize-winning economist and psychologist Daniel Kahneman has died at the age of 90. In June 2021, we spoke with Kahneman, and his co-author Olivier Sibony, about their book, ‘Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgement.' About: On Point is WBUR's award-winning, daily public radio show and podcast. Every weekday, host Meghna Chakrabarti leads provocative conversations that help make sense of the world.

Given what we know of physics and neuroscience, can there be free will? Kevin Mitchell, a neuroscientist himself, joins Vasant Dhar in episode 80 of Brave New World to unpack his argument for the existence of free will. Useful resources 1. Kevin Mitchell on Amazon, Twitter, Trinity College, Google Scholar, his blog and his homepage. 2. Free Agents: How Evolution Gave Us Free Will -- Kevin Mitchell. 3. Innate: How the Wiring of Our Brains Shapes Who We Are -- Kevin Mitchell. 4. Freedom Evolves -- Daniel Dennett. 5. Determined: A Science of Life without Free Will -- Robert Sapolsky. 6. Free Will -- Sam Harris. 7. Daniel Kahneman on How Noise Hampers Judgement -- Episode 21 of Brave New World. 8. Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment -- Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony and Cass Sunstein. 9. Synthetic Biology -- J Craig Ventor Institute. 10. David Krakauer. 11. David Krakauer on Complexity, Agency, and Information -- Episode 242 of Sean Carroll's Mindscape. 12. Anthony Zador on How our Brains Work — Episode 35 of Brave New World. Check out Vasant Dhar's newsletter on Substack. Subscription is free!

Our book this month is called “Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgement” by Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass Sunstein. Daniel Kahneman is an author, psychologist and economist notable for his work on hedonic psychology, psychology of judgment and decision-making. He is also known for his work in behavioral economics, for which he was awarded the 2002 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences. He is also the author of Thinking Fast and Slow which we reviewed on the show last year. In this book, the authors make the distinction between different sources of deviation from the ideal target. The most obvious source of error is bias. But in many cases, noise can be as large as bias when it comes to introducing error or any unwanted form of variation.  ------------- Host: Victor Menasce email: podcast@victorjm.com

Another chance to hear this special episode featuring the brilliant Daniel Kahneman. To address the big questions that shape our world, UBS has sought out a number of economic science Nobel laureates and asked them to share insights, discuss their research and open their inquiring minds. Kahneman won in 2002 for integrating insights from psychological research into economics, especially concerning human judgement and decision-making under uncertainty. Here he discusses his 2021 book ‘Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgement' and explains how such randomness infiltrates different parts of society.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Will big data and scary AI take over the world? Not a chance, says Gary Smith, as he joins Vasant Dhar in episode 68 of Brave New World. The human brain is special. Useful resources: 1. Gary Smith on Twitter, Amazon, Pomona College, Google Scholar and his own website. 2. The AI Delusion -- Gary Smith. 3. Distrust: Big Data, Data-Torturing, and the Assault on Science -- Gary Smith. 4. Standard Deviations: Flawed Assumptions, Tortured Data, and Other Ways to Lie with Statistics -- Gary Smith. 5. Security Analysis -- Benjamin Graham and David Dodd. 6. Sam Bowman on ChatGPT & Controlling AI — Episode 58 of Brave New World. 7. Raphaël Millière Looks Under the Hood of AI -- Episode 60 of Brave New World. 8. Nandan Nilekani on an Egalitarian Internet — Episode 15 of Brave New World. 9. Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment --  Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony and Cass R. Sunstein. 10. Daniel Kahneman on How Noise Hampers Judgement — Episode 21 of Brave New World. 11. The Nature of Intelligence — Episode 7 of Brave New World (w Yann le Cunn). 12. Ellie Pavlick on the Cutting Edge of AI -- Episode 67 of Brave New World. Check out Vasant Dhar's newsletter on Substack. Subscription is free!

Chapter 1 What's Noise aboutThe book "Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment" is co-authored by Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein. It explores the concept of noise, which refers to unwanted variability in human judgment and decision-making. In the book, Kahneman and his co-authors argue that while biases (systematic errors) in decision-making have received substantial attention, people often neglect the detrimental impact of noise. Noise occurs when individuals facing the same decision problem make different judgments or decisions due to random or irrelevant influences. These variations can lead to inconsistent and unfair outcomes, affecting various domains like law, medicine, hiring processes, and more. Kahneman and his colleagues provide insights into the sources of noise and its consequences, stressing the importance of reducing noise to achieve greater accuracy and fairness. They delve into the root causes of noise, such as flawed measurement tools, poorly designed procedures, and subjective human judgment. Additionally, the authors discuss potential remedies to mitigate noise, including using algorithms, decision aids, structured judgment protocols, and training. "Noise" sheds light on a critical yet often overlooked aspect of decision-making and highlights the need for organizations and individuals to address and minimize noise to improve the quality of their judgments and outcomes.Chapter 2 Is Noise ValuedAccording to reddit comments on Noise, "Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment" by Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein is valued because it sheds light on an important yet often overlooked aspect of human decision-making: the presence of noise. While much research has been focused on biases and errors in judgment, this book highlights the role of inconsistency and randomness in decision-making processes. Here are some reasons why this book is valued: 1. Awareness of noise: The book raises awareness about the concept of noise and its impact on decision-making. Noise refers to unwanted variability or inconsistency in judgments made by different individuals assessing the same situation. By highlighting this flaw, the book prompts readers to question their own judgments and consider the possibility of noise affecting their decisions. 2. Understanding decision-making: By exploring the root causes of noise, such as individual differences, contextual factors, and situational influences, the book provides insights into the complexities of decision-making. It helps readers understand that even when people have access to the same information and face similar circumstances, their judgments can differ significantly due to inherent noise. 3. Practical implications: "Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment" emphasizes the practical implications of noise for various fields, including law, healthcare, hiring practices, and policy-making. It demonstrates how reducing noise in decision-making processes can lead to improved outcomes and more consistent results. By providing actionable recommendations, the book offers a framework for reducing noise and increasing fairness in a variety of domains. 4. Collaboration and transparency: The book promotes collaboration and transparency by encouraging organizations and institutions to adopt methods that minimize noise. By...

Daniel Kahneman is Professor Emeritus of Psychology and Public Policy at Princeton University. He won the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences in 2002 for joint work with Amos Tversky in which they revealed the biases and heuristics with which humans operate, thereby deviating from the rationality presumed by economic theory at the time. Among this and many other awards, Danny was also given the Presidential Medal of Freedom by Barrack Obama. While Danny is likely best known outside of psychology for his book Thinking Fast and Slow, he and Robinson discuss his latest a book, co-authored with Olivier Simony and Cass Sunstein, called Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment, which concerns the astonishingly prevalent and damaging variability inherent in human judgment. Noise: https://a.co/d/hbKBQKD OUTLINE 00:00 In This Episode… 00:55 Introduction 06:16 Danny's Childhood 11:23 The Difference Between Noise and Bias 16:21 Some Themes from Noise 18:57 Noise in the Judicial System 32:36 Noise in the Medical System 37:59 The Difficulty of Spotting Noise 39:58 Psychology and the Descriptive, Prescriptive, and Normative 43:14 Decision Hygiene for Reducing Bias and Noise in Judgment 54:32 Limiting Intuitions to Improve Decision-Making 01:00:38 Understanding Regression to the Mean Robinson's Website: http://robinsonerhardt.com Robinson Erhardt researches symbolic logic and the foundations of mathematics at Stanford University. Join him in conversations with philosophers, scientists, weightlifters, artists, and everyone in-between.  --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/robinson-erhardt/support

  Maura Feddersen, behavioral research manager at Swiss Re, is an economist who previously worked in the economics team of two of the Big Four Accountancy firms: PwC and KPMG.   She got switched on to behavioral economics as “I always felt there was something a bit missing in economics. [Economics] assumes that people act quite rationally…and that was just not the case. Behavioral economics brings together the economics, as well as insights from psychology, to try to assess how humans really make decisions”.   This  fascinating episode with Maura, uncovers the lessons that FP&A teams can learn from behavioral economics to improve forecasting and the power of “knowing what knowing what you don't know.”   This episode includes      New research revealing that investors predictions are only slightly more accurate than a chimp How new forecasting methods improved accuracy at Swiss Re by 5% The cognitive biases we need to be aware of that undermine accuracy (such as the dangers of groupthink) Meryl Streep's Oscar nominations and your forecast confidence levels tested  How to try and manage cognitive bias The true economic impact of uncertainty in the global economy and in your business  The opportunities and limits of AI forecasting  Using RIO (Rational Impartial Observers) The biggest failure in her career Favorite Excel function Her biggest advice for someone starting out to get really good at forecasting    Further reading    Actuaries magazine: So You Think You Can Underwrite [Maura Fedderson]    Insurers, take heed of these 3 common forecasting fallacies [by Maura Feddersen]    Recommended books   Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Paperback - Philip Tetlock, Dan Gardner Nassim Taleb, The Black Swan, the Impact of the Highly Improbable    Annie Duke, How to decide   Adam Grant, Think Again, The Power of Knowing what you Don't Know    Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, Cass R. Sunstein, Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment   Read the full transcript and blog Follow Maura Fedderson on LinkedIn YouTube video Follow Paul Barnhurst on LinkedIn   Follow Datarails on LinkedIn   FP&A Today is brought to you by Datarails.   Datarails is the financial planning and analysis platform that automates data consolidation, reporting and planning, while enabling finance teams to continue using their own Excel spreadsheets and financial models.   Get in touch at www.datarails.com   For AFP FP&A Continuing Education credit please complete the course via the Earmark Ap, must pass the quiz with 80% accuracy and send the completed certificate to pbarnhust@thefpandaguy.com for issuance of 1 hour of credit toward your AFP FP&A Certification.   

Daniel Kahneman is widely regarded as the most influential psychologist alive. He won the Nobel Prize in Economics (2002) for his work on judgment and decision-making under uncertainty, much of it done jointly with his late collaborator Amos Tversky. He is the author of the bestselling books Thinking, Fast and Slow and Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment (written with Olivier Sibony and Cass Sunstein). Full transcript available at: thejspod.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

So, you think you're making good decisions, but are you really? And, what about the hidden scripts and noisy inputs that affect nearly every decision you make, without you being aware of any of it? How do we make better decisions?Today's guest can help. Daniel Kahneman is one of the most influential psychologists and thinkers in modern history, his ideas have literally changed the way we live, work, relate, see the world, make decisions, and build solutions, organizations, industries, societies, and lives. Best known for his remarkable work with Amos Tversky, which explores how we reason and make decisions, his research was, in no small way, seminal in the creation of the field of behavioral economics. He's been awarded the Nobel Prize, as well as the Presidential Medal of Freedom. His New York Times best-selling book, Thinking, Fast and Slow, has sold more than seven million copies worldwide. And his most recent book, Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment, explores how unrecognized, systemic influences affect our decisions in ways, both rational and not, that remain completely hidden to us and often lead to profound unfairness and inequality. We talk about key ideas from his research spanning more than 6 decades. But, we also dive deep into the life experiences that shaped him. Fascinatingly, Kahmeman's curiosity about humans and all our complexities was sparked as a young Jew living with his family in Nazi-occupied France during World War II, and running for years, before fleeing. His sometimes harrowing experiences triggered questions and curiosities that powerfully influenced what would become a lifelong devotion to understand why we do the things we do.We explore those early experiences, and he shares where some of the seeds were first planted that would later grow into the body of research and work that have changed the world. You can find Daniel at: Princeton University | The Nobel PrizeIf you LOVED this episode you'll also love the conversations we had with Charles Duhigg about how unknown influences and habit and ritual effect our behavior.Check out our offerings & partners: My New Book SparkedMy New Podcast SPARKED. To submit your “moment & question” for consideration to be on the show go to sparketype.com/submit. Visit Our Sponsor Page For Great Resources & Discount Codes Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Language models can generate superior text compared to their input, published by ChristianKl on January 17, 2023 on LessWrong. There's a frequent misconception that assumes that a large language model will never achieve superhuman text creation ability because such models try to create texts that are maximally unsurprising. This article will explain why that assumption is wrong. In 1906, Sir Francis Galton conducted an experiment at a fair, where he asked fair-goers to guess the weight of an ox in a weight-judging competition. The median of 787 guesses was 1,207 pounds, while the actual weight of the ox was 1,198 pounds. The error in making guesses was a result of a combination of systematic bias and random noise. The fair-goers, having knowledge of oxen, had no bias in their guesses, thus the error was entirely due to random noise. By polling the 787 guesses, Galton averaged out the random noise of each individual guess. This phenomenon was coined wisdom of the crowd. In areas where reasoning errors are mostly random noise, crowds are smarter than individual members of the crowd. By training on large data sets, large language models can access the wisdom of the crowd. The ceiling of the ability of a large language model is the wisdom of the crowd instead of the wisdom of individual members of the crowd. The fact that each word of a text is massively unsurprising based on preceding words in the text does not imply that the text overall would be massively unsurprising. If you have a text you can calculate for every word in the text the likelihood (Ltext) how likely it would follow the preceding words in the text. You can also calculate the likelihood (Lideal) of the most likely word that would follow the preceding text. Lideal - Ltext is noise. If you look at a given text you can calculate the average of the noise for each word. A well-trained large language model is able to produce texts with a lot less noise than the average of the text in its training corpus. For further reading, Kahneman wrote Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment which goes into more detail on how a machine learning model can eliminate noise and thus make better decisions than the average of its training data. Thanks for listening. To help us out with The Nonlinear Library or to learn more, please visit nonlinear.org.

Link to original articleWelcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Language models can generate superior text compared to their input, published by ChristianKl on January 17, 2023 on LessWrong. There's a frequent misconception that assumes that a large language model will never achieve superhuman text creation ability because such models try to create texts that are maximally unsurprising. This article will explain why that assumption is wrong. In 1906, Sir Francis Galton conducted an experiment at a fair, where he asked fair-goers to guess the weight of an ox in a weight-judging competition. The median of 787 guesses was 1,207 pounds, while the actual weight of the ox was 1,198 pounds. The error in making guesses was a result of a combination of systematic bias and random noise. The fair-goers, having knowledge of oxen, had no bias in their guesses, thus the error was entirely due to random noise. By polling the 787 guesses, Galton averaged out the random noise of each individual guess. This phenomenon was coined wisdom of the crowd. In areas where reasoning errors are mostly random noise, crowds are smarter than individual members of the crowd. By training on large data sets, large language models can access the wisdom of the crowd. The ceiling of the ability of a large language model is the wisdom of the crowd instead of the wisdom of individual members of the crowd. The fact that each word of a text is massively unsurprising based on preceding words in the text does not imply that the text overall would be massively unsurprising. If you have a text you can calculate for every word in the text the likelihood (Ltext) how likely it would follow the preceding words in the text. You can also calculate the likelihood (Lideal) of the most likely word that would follow the preceding text. Lideal - Ltext is noise. If you look at a given text you can calculate the average of the noise for each word. A well-trained large language model is able to produce texts with a lot less noise than the average of the text in its training corpus. For further reading, Kahneman wrote Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment which goes into more detail on how a machine learning model can eliminate noise and thus make better decisions than the average of its training data. Thanks for listening. To help us out with The Nonlinear Library or to learn more, please visit nonlinear.org.

Cass Sunstein, the Robert Walmsley University Professor at Harvard and Jonah's fellow disciple of the dingo, makes an overdue return to the Remnant to discuss his recent book, Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment. Noise, the book argues, is a deadly flaw in human judgment that clouds many of our decisions and produces errors in fields such as medicine, law, and public health. Dr. Sunstein and Jonah examine how noise should be defined, what separates it from bias, and what we can do to fight it. They also explore whether the phenomenon varies across the world, and how terrifying changes in AI and algorithms may affect it.Show Notes:- Dr. Sunstein's recent book, Noise- Dr. Sunstein's other recent book, Sludge- Dr. Sunstein: “Governing by Algorithm? No Noise and (Potentially) Less Bias”

John Prendergast - In Touch Książki, które były prezentowane w cyklu Niewidzialne książki i które doczekały się polskiego wydania: 1. Niewidzialne książki #11: J. Ratey, Spark Ćwiczenia fizyczne a mózg - John J. Ratey Wydawnictwo: Vital, Data wydania: 2022-05-05 2. Niewidzialne książki #27: J. Webb, Running on Empty Wypełnić pustkę. Pokonaj skutki zaniedbania emocjonalnego z dzieciństwa - Jonice Webb, Christine Musello Wydawnictwo: Zwierciadło, Data premiery: 26.10.2022r. 3. Niewidzialne książki #30: C. Hammond, The Art of Rest Sztuka odpoczynku. Jak znaleźć wytchnienie w dzisiejszych czasach - Claudia Hammond Wydawnictwo: Czarna Owca, data wydania: 01.09.2021 4. Niewidzialne książki #34: Ch. Niebauer, No Self, No Problem Neuronauka a buddyzm. Realne życie czy jego iluzja? - Chris Niebauer Wydawnictwo: Studio Astropsychologii, Data wydania: 2021-06-04 5. Niewidzialne książki #35: E. Kross, Chatter Intuicja. Wewnętrzny głos - dlaczego ma znaczenie - Ethan Kross Wydawnictwo: Muza SA, Data wydania: 2021-04-28 6. Niewidzialne książki #50: A. Moorjani, Sensitive Is The New Strong Wrażliwość daje siłę - Anita Moorjani Wydawnictwo: Studio Astropsychologii, Data wydania: 2022-04-25 7. Niewidzialne książki #54: D. Kahneman, O. Sibony, C. R. Sunstein, Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment Szum, czyli skąd się biorą błędy w naszych decyzjach - Daniel Kanehman, Olivier Sibony, Cass R. Sunstein Wydawnictwo: Media Rodzina, Data wydania: 2022-04-01 8. Niewidzialne książki #57: Anna Lembke - Dopamine Nation Niewolnicy dopaminy. Jak odnaleźć równowagę w epoce obfitości - Anna Lembke Wydawnictwo: Zysk i S-ka, Data wydania: 2023-01-31 (zapowiedź) 9. Niewidzialne książki #59: N. G. Tawwab, Set Boundaries, Find Peace Dbałość. O komunikowaniu swoich potrzeb, stawianiu granic i wolności bycia sobą - Nedra Glover Tawwab Wydawnictwo: Muza, Data wydania: 2022-09-14 10. Niewidzialne książki #60: E. Jorgenson, The Almanack of Naval Ravikant Almanach Navala Ravikanta. Przewodnik do bogactwa i szczęścia - Eric Jorgenson Wydawnictwo: FREEDOM PUBLISHING, Data wydania: 2022-12-05 11. Niewidzialne książki #61: R. Holiday, Stillness is the Key Umysł niewzruszony. W szkole mistrzów - Ryan Holiday Wydawnictwo: Onepress, Data wydania: 2022-01-12 12. Niewidzialne książki: #74: Anthony De Mello, Stop Fixing Yourself Przestań siebie naprawiać - Anthony de Mello Wydawnictwo: Zysk i S-ka, Data wydania: 2022-05-04 13. Niewidzialne książki: #79: Sophie Mort - A Manual For Being Human Czułość. Poradnik pozytywnego egoizmu - Sophie Mort Wydawnictwo: Wielka Litera, Data wydania: 2022-01-26 Dziękuję:-) Jarosław Gibas

Using Family Photos Of Fall Foliage To Track Climate Change Leaf-peeping, or tourism based on observing the colors of fall foliage, is a big industry in parts of the Northeast. So as leaves continue to change across the northern United States with the turning of the seasons, researchers are working to better understand how climate change may be affecting fall colors—changes that may affect the bottom line for those tourism-rich areas. But to tease out the factors involved with the timing of peak leaf color, the researchers need data on when leaves started to change color, when they arrive at their peak color, and when the leaf-peeping season ends. Unfortunately, satellite imagery showing leaf color is only available dating back to the year 2000—and so Stephanie Spera of the University of Richmond is trying to get data in some unconventional ways. Spera and colleagues are engaging in a massive citizen-science project, asking for tourist snapshots of Acadia National Park that show the colors of fall. While they'll accept your cellphone selfies, they're especially interested in older, pre-digital images—the sort of vacation pictures that might be in your family albums, or in shoe boxes in an elderly relative's attic. Adding those images to their data set, she says, will both help them to validate the satellite data and to extend the boundaries of their data set outwards. Heather Goldstone, host and executive producer of Living Lab Radio on WCAI, joins Ira to talk about the project and how listeners can participate.   The ‘Grandfather' Of The Voyager Mission Retires 45 years ago, the Voyagers 1 and 2 spacecraft were launched into the cosmos from Cape Canaveral in Florida. Since then, they've traveled over 14 billion miles from Earth, on a grand tour of our solar system, and beyond. The mission is still running, making Voyager 1 the farthest human-built artifact from Earth. Even before launch, scientists and engineers were hard at work planning and designing the mission. Last week, NASA announced the retirement of Dr. Ed Stone, who some called the ‘grandfather' of the mission. Dr. Stone shepherded the Voyager program as its project scientist for 50 full years. In this conversation from 2013, just after Voyager 1 had entered interstellar space, Ira spoke with Dr. Stone for a status update on the mission.   A Flaw in Human Judgment: How Making Decisions Isn't As Objective As You Think If two people are presented with the same set of facts, they will often draw different conclusions. For example, judges often dole out different sentences for the same case, which can lead to an unjust system. This unwanted variability in judgments in which we expect uniformity is what psychologist Daniel Kahneman calls “noise.” The importance of thoughtful decision-making has come in stark relief during the pandemic and in the events leading up to the January 6th insurrection. Ira talks with Nobel Prize-winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman about the role of ‘noise' in human judgment, his long career studying cognitive biases, and how systematic decision-making can result in fewer errors. Kahneman is the co-author of “Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment,” along with Oliver Sibony and Cass R. Sunstein, now available in paperback.   Frenemies, Lovers, And The Fate Of The Cosmos: Our Galaxy Tells All Our galaxy, the Milky Way, is 13.6 billion years old, all-knowing, and a little sassy. It has a rich social life of friends, frenemies, and even love interests—all other galaxies in the local group, including the stunning Andromeda. And the Milky Way is a little disappointed that we've stopped telling as many stories about it. Or at least, that's how folklorist and astronomer Dr. Moiya McTier imagines the galaxy's personality when writing her new book, The Milky Way: An Autobiography of Our Galaxy. The book stretches from the beginning of the universe to the birth of our planet, and then on to the eventual theoretical end of the cosmos. Along the way, we learn both the science of how stars form and galaxies collide, and the many stories and myths humans have told about these bodies throughout our relatively brief lives. McTier joins Ira to tell all (on behalf of the Milky Way), and explain the importance of story in scientific knowledge and discovery.   Transcripts for each segment will be available the week after the show airs on sciencefriday.com.  

To help address the big questions that shape our world, UBS has sought out a number of Nobel laureates in the Economic Sciences to ask them to share insights, discuss their research and open their inquiring minds. This week we hear from Daniel Kahneman, winner in 2002 for integrating insights from psychological research into economics, especially concerning human judgement and decision-making under uncertainty. We discuss his newest book, “Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgement”, and consider how noise infiltrates different parts of society.

Episodio 43 de IN SESSION "Crianza y programación". En este podcast platicamos diversos temas relacionados con salud mental, nuestra mente cuerpo y algo más. Te invitamos a dejarnos tus comentarios, dudas, preguntas o sugerencias dando clic en el siguiente enlace: https://bit.ly/in-session-podcast Enlaces de lo platicado en este capítulo:Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment / Ruido: Una falla en el juicio humanohttps://tinyurl.com/22jr3dr3Grasshopperhttps://grasshopper.app/es_419/ Sololearn https://www.sololearn.com/homeSupport this podcast at — https://redcircle.com/in-session/donations

Episodio 39 de IN SESSION "Platicamos sobre el suicidio, el juicio y los prejuicios". En este podcast platicamos diversos temas relacionados con salud mental, nuestra mente cuerpo y algo más. Te invitamos a dejarnos tus comentarios, dudas, preguntas o sugerencias dando clic en el siguiente enlace:https://bit.ly/in-session-podcast Enlaces de lo platicado en este capítulo:BLS therapy   https://blstherapy.com/Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment / Ruido- Una falla en el juicio humano https://www.amazon.com/-/es/Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0316451401https://www.amazon.com.mx/Ruido-juicio-humano-Daniel-Kahneman-ebook/dp/B097NN46P8Thinking, Fast and Slow de Daniel Kahnemanhttps://www.amazon.com.mx/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555

Episodio 35 de IN SESSION "Como abordar memorias difíciles".En este podcast platicamos diversos temas relacionados con salud mental, nuestra mente cuerpo y algo más.Te invitamos a dejarnos tus comentarios, dudas, preguntas o sugerencias dando clic en el siguiente enlace: https://bit.ly/in-session-podcastEnlaces de lo platicado en este capítulo:BLS therapyhttps://blstherapy.com/Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment / Ruido- Una falla en el juicio humano https://www.amazon.com/-/es/Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0316451401https://www.amazon.com.mx/Ruido-juicio-humano-Daniel-Kahneman-ebook/dp/B097NN46P8Thinking, Fast and Slow de Daniel Kahnemanhttps://www.amazon.com.mx/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555

When Times Get Tough, These Toads Make Hybrid Babies Scientists have long thought that when two animals from two different species mate, it's a colossal error and the end of the road for the mismatched couple. It's called interspecies breeding, and many hybrid offspring often end up sterile, such as zonkeys —a cross between a zebra and donkey. Or they can develop serious health problems, like ligers and tigons. One biologist even went as far to call interspecies breeding “the grossest blunder in sexual preference.” But is breeding across species lines always a dead end? One critter —the plains spadefoot toad—shows us that maybe it isn't. In fact, it can give them a leg up in survival. Katherine Wu, staff writer for The Atlantic, talks with Ira about the complicated sex lives of the female plains spadefoot toads, the trade-offs females make when choosing a mate, and why hybridizing critters may not be such a biological abomination after all.     Major Semiconductor Support Bill Passes First Hurdle Earlier this week, the Senate voted in favor of the Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors (CHIPS) for America Act. If passed, the bill would provide more than $50 billion to companies that will build semiconductor factories here in the United States. Semiconductors are versatile materials—such as silicon—often used in electronics and in microchips. But the bulk of semiconductors, known as “chips,” are produced in other countries, mostly Taiwan. If the CHIPS Act is passed, the government will fund tech companies to build factories at home instead. Although the bill still has to go through the House and be signed by President Biden, this Senate vote is still a monumental moment in the tech world. Jesús del Alamo, a professor of electrical engineering at MIT, joins Ira to talk about why this bill is such a big deal, and what's at stake.   Drought Could Raise Toxic Dust Around Utah's Great Salt Lake Utah's Great Salt Lake holds a unique ecological niche as the western hemisphere's largest saltwater lake. The body of water is three to five times saltier than the ocean, with salinity ranging between 12 and 28 percent. According to the Great Salt Lake Institute, millions of birds from more than 250 species rely on the lake yearly, alongside a diverse variety of plants and animals. Like many bodies of water in the U.S., climate change is affecting the status quo in the Great Salt Lake. The water is drying up at an alarming rate, reaching its lowest level in recorded history this month. Now, researchers warn that toxic dust could increase as water levels continue to drop. Joining Ira to discuss the Great Salt Lake's ecosystem and future is Bonnie Baxter, director of the Great Salt Lake Institute and biology professor at Westminster College in Salt Lake City, Utah.   A Flaw in Human Judgment: How Making Decisions Isn't As Objective As You Think If two people are presented with the same set of facts, they will often draw different conclusions. For example, judges often dole out different sentences for the same case, which can lead to an unjust system. This unwanted variability in judgments in which we expect uniformity is what psychologist Daniel Kahneman calls “noise.” The importance of thoughtful decision-making has come in stark relief during the pandemic and in the events leading up to the January 6th insurrection. Ira talks with Nobel Prize-winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman about the role of ‘noise' in human judgment, his long career studying cognitive biases, and how systematic decision-making can result in fewer errors. Kahneman is the co-author of “Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment,” along with Oliver Sibony and Cass R. Sunstein, now available in paperback.   Transcripts for each segment will be available the week after the show airs on sciencefriday.com.  

 Our next guest is Len Tashman, Professor Emeritus of business administration at the University of Vermont, US. He is the founding and continuing editor of Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting.Len tells us how the “Foresight” journal was established in 2005, the main idea behind it, and how it is going now. This journal provides up-to-date research for practitioners and forecasters, and it has an impressive background story. Len highly recommends a prominent book by Daniel Kahneman “Thinking, Fast and Slow” as well as a new book released by Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein, “Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment”.

Much of the appeal of McDonald's comes from the chain's consistency. A cheeseburger in the US or a McSpicy Chicken in India should taste the same every time. But what if a business had wildly different outcomes depending on which leader was making decisions? Renowned psychologist Daniel Kahneman calls this variability “noise,” and suggests controlling it is key to ensuring the best decisions get made. In this week's episode, Stephanie interviews Kahneman, a best-selling author and professor emeritus at Princeton University, and Olivier Sibony, a professor of strategy at HEC Paris, about their new book, “Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment.” (Their co-author is US legal scholar Cass Sunstein of Harvard Law School.) Kahneman and Sibony argue businesses often wrongly assume their decisionmakers will make similar judgments given similar circumstances. Kahneman relates an experiment he conducted with an insurance firm and dozens of its underwriters. It's fair to predict underwriters would reach similar conclusions about a case's risk and put a similar dollar value on it, right? Wrong. Kahneman found judgments often varied by 50%, or five times the divergence one would reasonably expect. Silencing that noise often means adopting good decision “hygiene,” the authors said. Many job interviews start with employers having an initial impression and spending the rest of the interview justifying it. Instead, companies should use structured interviews with standard questions that might help disprove false impressions, Kahneman said. And while many firms use artificial intelligence to weed out job candidates, they're likely doing themselves a disservice, Sibony said. Too often, the algorithms themselves are faulty, he said. “My worry is that companies are using this mostly to save time and money, not to actually improve the quality of their decisions,” Sibony said. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What is noise?  In the context of decision making, it is unwanted variability in judgment. For investment management professionals, there's no room for errors in judgment, not when they are counted on to deliver for their clients. In this episode of Guiding Assets, we talk with Olivier Sibony, professor of strategy at HEC Paris and coauthor of Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment. Oliver provides examples and methods for reducing noise and bias, and therefore error in decision making. Employing decision hygiene will give you more confidence in the judgments your firm makes. Be sure to listen and follow Olivier at https://twitter.com/SibOliv and https://www.linkedin.com/in/oliviersibony/.

Nobel memorial prize winner Daniel Kahneman is one of the world's most famous psychologists, known particularly for his work identifying the role of cognitive bias in everyday decision making. In this edition of More or Less he talks to Tim Harford about his latest book, Noise - A Flaw in Human Judgement, in which he outlines how a multitude of often irrelevant factors influence important decisions, whether in job interviews, the courtroom or workplaces generally - and what we can do about it.

این کتاب درباره چیست؟ چه اتفاقی می‌افتد که یک معلم یا استاد دانشگاه به یک جواب مشابه در برگه امتحانی دو نمره مختلف می‌دهد؟ یا چرا دو پزشک برای یک مریض با اسناد و مدارک پزشکی یکسان تشخیص‌های مختلف دارند؟ یا اینکه دو قاضی، چرا به یک مجرم دو حکم مختلف می‌دهند؟ چرا قضاوت‌های آدم از یک نفر به نفر دیگه فرق دارد؟ دانیل کانمن نوبلیست اقتصاد و متخصص اقتصاد رفتاری می‌گوید ریشه این خطا در قضاوت آدم‌ها یک پدیده‌ای‌ است به اسم «نویز». کانمن توی کتاب جدیدش «نویز» تلاش می‌کند توضیح بدهد این خطای شناختی چیست و چطوری می‌شود از آن خلاص شد. راوی این قسمت: دکتر مجید نیلی‌ احمدآبادی، استاد دانشکده مهندسی برق و کامپیوتر دانشگاه تهران لینک دسترسی به اصل کتاب: Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment سردبیر: دکتر محمدامین نادریان ناظران علمی و برنامه‌ریزان: دکتر فرهاد نیلی دکتر سید فرشاد فاطمی تهیه‌کننده: دکتر هستی ربیعی مدیر هنری: علی نقیبی میکس و ادیت: محمد اسماعیل نوایی سیاوش مهرآیین تولیدشده در استودیو دانشگو https://zil.ink/daneshgoo

This episode is a session from Jaipur Lit Fest 2022 Digital Edition. Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, Cass R Sunstein in conversation with Mihir Sharma.

Tällä kerralla Tuplaturinoissa paljasteltiin salaisuuksia. Markkinointipuhe on täynnä salaisuutta, mutta löytyykö puheelle katetta. Ja kannattaako esimerkiksi sinun jahdata markkinointisalaisuutta. Salaisuus on yksi ikuisesti houkuttelevista markkinointikonsepteista Suomalaisille sana itsessään saattaa joskus tuntua kornilta Paljastetaan ydin: ei ole salaisuutta Yhdelläkään firmalla kaikki palat eivät ole kohdallaan No hyvä on, kerrotaan sitten markkinoinnin salaisuus Mikään kurssi ei anna sinulle soittotaitoa Koulutusten keräily ei paranna tuloksia Pitääkö koulutuksen tarjota aina jotakin uutta? Keskity ja toteuta Jaksossa mainittua:  Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgement (Kahneman, Sibony, Sunstein)

In this podcast Owen Bennett-Jones discusses the future of rational decision making with Professor Olivier Sibony who after 25 years with McKinsey & Company in France, is now at HEC Paris and the Saïd Business School in Oxford University. In 2021 he co-wrote the book Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment (Little, Brown Spark, 2021) with Cass R. Sunstein and Daniel Kahneman. For those trying to resist the illogicalities of the post truth world, the idea of rational decision-making is perhaps more important than ever. Yet the challenge to rationality comes not only from social media driven myths becoming accepted truths, but also bias and randomness in decision-making. Owen Bennett-Jones is a freelance journalist and writer. A former BBC correspondent and presenter he has been a resident foreign correspondent in Bucharest, Geneva, Islamabad, Hanoi and Beirut. He is recently wrote a history of the Bhutto dynasty which was published by Yale University Press. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/new-books-network

In this podcast Owen Bennett-Jones discusses the future of rational decision making with Professor Olivier Sibony who after 25 years with McKinsey & Company in France, is now at HEC Paris and the Saïd Business School in Oxford University. In 2021 he co-wrote the book Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment (Little, Brown Spark, 2021) with Cass R. Sunstein and Daniel Kahneman. For those trying to resist the illogicalities of the post truth world, the idea of rational decision-making is perhaps more important than ever. Yet the challenge to rationality comes not only from social media driven myths becoming accepted truths, but also bias and randomness in decision-making. Owen Bennett-Jones is a freelance journalist and writer. A former BBC correspondent and presenter he has been a resident foreign correspondent in Bucharest, Geneva, Islamabad, Hanoi and Beirut. He is recently wrote a history of the Bhutto dynasty which was published by Yale University Press. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/political-science

In this podcast Owen Bennett-Jones discusses the future of rational decision making with Professor Olivier Sibony who after 25 years with McKinsey & Company in France, is now at HEC Paris and the Saïd Business School in Oxford University. In 2021 he co-wrote the book Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment (Little, Brown Spark, 2021) with Cass R. Sunstein and Daniel Kahneman. For those trying to resist the illogicalities of the post truth world, the idea of rational decision-making is perhaps more important than ever. Yet the challenge to rationality comes not only from social media driven myths becoming accepted truths, but also bias and randomness in decision-making. Owen Bennett-Jones is a freelance journalist and writer. A former BBC correspondent and presenter he has been a resident foreign correspondent in Bucharest, Geneva, Islamabad, Hanoi and Beirut. He is recently wrote a history of the Bhutto dynasty which was published by Yale University Press. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/sociology

In this podcast Owen Bennett-Jones discusses the future of rational decision making with Professor Olivier Sibony who after 25 years with McKinsey & Company in France, is now at HEC Paris and the Saïd Business School in Oxford University. In 2021 he co-wrote the book Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment (Little, Brown Spark, 2021) with Cass R. Sunstein and Daniel Kahneman. For those trying to resist the illogicalities of the post truth world, the idea of rational decision-making is perhaps more important than ever. Yet the challenge to rationality comes not only from social media driven myths becoming accepted truths, but also bias and randomness in decision-making. Owen Bennett-Jones is a freelance journalist and writer. A former BBC correspondent and presenter he has been a resident foreign correspondent in Bucharest, Geneva, Islamabad, Hanoi and Beirut. He is recently wrote a history of the Bhutto dynasty which was published by Yale University Press. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/psychology

In this podcast Owen Bennett-Jones discusses the future of rational decision making with Professor Olivier Sibony who after 25 years with McKinsey & Company in France, is now at HEC Paris and the Saïd Business School in Oxford University. In 2021 he co-wrote the book Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment (Little, Brown Spark, 2021) with Cass R. Sunstein and Daniel Kahneman. For those trying to resist the illogicalities of the post truth world, the idea of rational decision-making is perhaps more important than ever. Yet the challenge to rationality comes not only from social media driven myths becoming accepted truths, but also bias and randomness in decision-making. Owen Bennett-Jones is a freelance journalist and writer. A former BBC correspondent and presenter he has been a resident foreign correspondent in Bucharest, Geneva, Islamabad, Hanoi and Beirut. He is recently wrote a history of the Bhutto dynasty which was published by Yale University Press. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/economics

In this podcast Owen Bennett-Jones discusses the future of rational decision making with Professor Olivier Sibony who after 25 years with McKinsey & Company in France, is now at HEC Paris and the Saïd Business School in Oxford University. In 2021 he co-wrote the book Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment (Little, Brown Spark, 2021) with Cass R. Sunstein and Daniel Kahneman. For those trying to resist the illogicalities of the post truth world, the idea of rational decision-making is perhaps more important than ever. Yet the challenge to rationality comes not only from social media driven myths becoming accepted truths, but also bias and randomness in decision-making. Owen Bennett-Jones is a freelance journalist and writer. A former BBC correspondent and presenter he has been a resident foreign correspondent in Bucharest, Geneva, Islamabad, Hanoi and Beirut. He is recently wrote a history of the Bhutto dynasty which was published by Yale University Press. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/communications

In this podcast Owen Bennett-Jones discusses the future of rational decision making with Professor Olivier Sibony who after 25 years with McKinsey & Company in France, is now at HEC Paris and the Saïd Business School in Oxford University. In 2021 he co-wrote the book Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment (Little, Brown Spark, 2021) with Cass R. Sunstein and Daniel Kahneman. For those trying to resist the illogicalities of the post truth world, the idea of rational decision-making is perhaps more important than ever. Yet the challenge to rationality comes not only from social media driven myths becoming accepted truths, but also bias and randomness in decision-making. Owen Bennett-Jones is a freelance journalist and writer. A former BBC correspondent and presenter he has been a resident foreign correspondent in Bucharest, Geneva, Islamabad, Hanoi and Beirut. He is recently wrote a history of the Bhutto dynasty which was published by Yale University Press. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/science-technology-and-society

In this podcast Owen Bennett-Jones discusses the future of rational decision making with Professor Olivier Sibony who after 25 years with McKinsey & Company in France, is now at HEC Paris and the Saïd Business School in Oxford University. In 2021 he co-wrote the book Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment (Little, Brown Spark, 2021) with Cass R. Sunstein and Daniel Kahneman. For those trying to resist the illogicalities of the post truth world, the idea of rational decision-making is perhaps more important than ever. Yet the challenge to rationality comes not only from social media driven myths becoming accepted truths, but also bias and randomness in decision-making. Owen Bennett-Jones is a freelance journalist and writer. A former BBC correspondent and presenter he has been a resident foreign correspondent in Bucharest, Geneva, Islamabad, Hanoi and Beirut. He is recently wrote a history of the Bhutto dynasty which was published by Yale University Press. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this podcast Owen Bennett-Jones discusses the future of rational decision making with Professor Olivier Sibony who after 25 years with McKinsey & Company in France, is now at HEC Paris and the Saïd Business School in Oxford University. In 2021 he co-wrote the book Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment (Little, Brown Spark, 2021) with Cass R. Sunstein and Daniel Kahneman. For those trying to resist the illogicalities of the post truth world, the idea of rational decision-making is perhaps more important than ever. Yet the challenge to rationality comes not only from social media driven myths becoming accepted truths, but also bias and randomness in decision-making. Owen Bennett-Jones is a freelance journalist and writer. A former BBC correspondent and presenter he has been a resident foreign correspondent in Bucharest, Geneva, Islamabad, Hanoi and Beirut. He is recently wrote a history of the Bhutto dynasty which was published by Yale University Press. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/finance

In this podcast Owen Bennett-Jones discusses the future of rational decision making with Professor Olivier Sibony who after 25 years with McKinsey & Company in France, is now at HEC Paris and the Saïd Business School in Oxford University. In 2021 he co-wrote the book Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment (Little, Brown Spark, 2021) with Cass R. Sunstein and Daniel Kahneman. For those trying to resist the illogicalities of the post truth world, the idea of rational decision-making is perhaps more important than ever. Yet the challenge to rationality comes not only from social media driven myths becoming accepted truths, but also bias and randomness in decision-making. Owen Bennett-Jones is a freelance journalist and writer. A former BBC correspondent and presenter he has been a resident foreign correspondent in Bucharest, Geneva, Islamabad, Hanoi and Beirut. He is recently wrote a history of the Bhutto dynasty which was published by Yale University Press. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/journalism

Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients—or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indistinguishable job applicants—or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to answer the phone. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same interviewer, or the same customer service agent makes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical.   In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. Yet, most of the time, individuals and organizations alike are unaware of it. They neglect noise. With a few simple remedies, people can reduce both noise and bias, and so make far better decisions.   Packed with original ideas, and offering the same kinds of research-based insights that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment—and what we can do about it.  

The winner of the 2002 Nobel prize in economic sciences talks about his book ‘Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment', which explores why people make bad judgements – and how they can make better ones. This is the latest in a series of special programmes featuring highlights from UBS's flagship Greater China Conference, the 22nd edition of which took place in January.

The winner of the 2002 Nobel prize in economic sciences talks about his book ‘Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment', which explores why people make bad judgements – and how they can make better ones. This is the latest in a series of special programmes featuring highlights from UBS's flagship Greater China Conference, the 22nd edition of which took place in January.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The way we think makes us vulnerable to bad decision making, but in his guide to thinking better, Steven Pinker explores how we can exploit our cognitive biases to make better choices. Professor Pinker is joined by: Daniel Kahneman, Professor Emeritus at Princeton University, Nobel Prize in Economics winner and author of “Thinking Fast and Slow” and “Noise A Flaw in Human Judgement” Robyn Scott, writer, entrepreneur and the founder and CEO of Apolitical, a peer to peer learning platform for public servants designed to make government smarter and more effective. Producers: Imogen Walford and Joe Kent Editor: Emma Rippon Think with Pinker is produced in partnership with The Open University.

In this episode, David talks with Professor Olivier Sibony, co-author of the book Noise: A flaw in human judgement. For all the links, transcript and more go to: https://oxford-review.com/noise/  

Nate Christensen, APCC, makes his record fourth appearance on The Virtual Couch to talk more about our minds and the stories they tell us to try and make sense of the world. Nate and Tony discuss several fundamental discoveries from Rick Hanson and Richard Mendius' book The Buddha's Brain: The Practical Science of Happiness, Love and Neuroscience https://www.amazon.com/Buddhas-Brain-Practical-Neuroscience-Happiness/dp/1572246952/ as well as Daniel Kahneman's book Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgement https://www.amazon.com/Noise-Human-Judgment-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0316451401/ Take advantage today of the Relationship Mastery Pack that Tony mentioned on the episode https://www.epicmarriageclub.com/a/2147499720/h3Cn8yaE Get thousands of dollars in relationship tools for one special Black Friday price featuring Tony's brand new parenting course: 3 Keys to Positive Parenting - Bring the Positivity without Messing Up Your Kids Even if You're Not Sure Where to Start! Go to https://www.epicmarriageclub.com/a/2147499720/h3Cn8yaE to sign up for thousands of dollars worth of relationship tools for less than the cost of one therapy session. With the continuing "sheltering" rules spreading across the country, PLEASE do not think you can't continue or begin therapy now. http://betterhelp.com/virtualcouch can put you quickly in touch with licensed mental health professionals who can meet through text, email, or videoconference often as soon as 24-48 hours. And if you use the link http://betterhelp.com/virtualcouch, you will receive 10% off your first month of services. Please make your mental health a priority, http://betterhelp.com/virtualcouch offers affordable counseling, and they even have sliding scale options if your budget is tight. You can learn more about Tony's pornography recovery program, The Path Back, by visiting http://pathbackrecovery.com And visit http://tonyoverbay.com and sign up to receive updates on upcoming programs and podcasts. Tony mentioned a product that he used to take out all of the "uh's" and "um's" that, in his words, "must be created by wizards and magic!" because it's that good! To learn more about Descript, click here https://descript.com?lmref=v95myQ

Nobel Prize winning psychologist and bestselling author of Thinking, Fast and SlowDaniel Kahneman, joins Ben Newell, Professor of Cognitive Psychology at UNSW Sydney, to discuss his work ahead of the release of his latest book. A psychologist whose work on the foundations of behavioural economics was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics, Daniel Kahneman has had an enormous impact on our understanding of how we think, and the process behind how and why we make good and bad decisions.   In his new book, Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgement, Kahneman (with Olivier Sibony and Cass Sunstein) explores our susceptibility to ‘noise' – the random factors and mental distractions that interfere with the judgement and decisions of organisations and individuals. Although we now try to acknowledge the impact of bias, ‘noise' is even more common, but there is little awareness of it. Can we reduce both noise and bias to make better decisions? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Zapraszam do lektury moich książek: Nie daj sobie spieprzyć życia. Sposoby na toksycznych ludzi https://sensus.pl/viewc/14859A/3/toklud Psychopata w pracy, w rodzinie i wśród znajomych: https://sensus.pl/viewc/14859A/1/psywpr.htm Totem. Jak zbudować poczucie własnej wartości: https://sensus.pl/viewc/14859A/1/totemj.htm Święty spokój. Instrukcja obsługi emocji: https://sensus.pl/viewc/14859A/1/swiety.htm Życie. Następny poziom: https://sensus.pl/viewc/14859A/1/zycie2.htm Alchemia duchowego rozwoju: https://sensus.pl/viewc/14859A/1/aldurv.htm Mantra ciszy. 7 reguł duchowej ścieżki: https://sensus.pl/viewc/14859A/1/7regdu.htm Motocyklizm. Droga do mindfulness: https://sensus.pl/viewc/14859A/1/motozy.htm Pokonaj stres z Kaizen: https://sensus.pl/viewc/14859A/1/pokosk.htm Schudnij z Kaizen: https://sensus.pl/viewc/14859A/1/pokoty.htm Model transpersonalny https://www.fundacjahs.org/sklep/model_transpersonalny-ebook/ Oferta moich szkoleń video: Zarządzanie emocjami: https://bit.ly/2IFmNOE Re-konstrukcja relacji: https://bit.ly/31Kl1FU Mindfulness: https://bit.ly/3bU5iHb Sztuka komunikacji: https://bit.ly/3eLJIpm Jak pokonać stres?: https://bit.ly/2VwL4ff Poziomy świadomości: https://bit.ly/3x0sw85 Motywacja: https://bit.ly/3Aa3Njc Oferta moich otwartych szkoleń i warsztatów: Zarządzanie emocjami: https://bit.ly/2oH5QJj Warsztaty medytacyjne: http://bit.ly/2AJHJ4I Akademia terapii transpersonalnej: https://bit.ly/2Vz7zAa Opis metody, której uczę i w której pracuję: Model transpersonalny: https://bit.ly/2OCI4wr Informacje na temat sesji indywidualnej: https://bit.ly/33kQkVL Realizacja video mini-wykładów oraz cyklu Niewidzialne książki jest możliwa dzięki środkom i zasobom Fundacji Hinc Sapientia https://www.fundacjahs.org. Jeśli uważasz, że publikowane tutaj materiały są przydatne i warto kontynuować ich produkcję to możesz ją wesprzeć darowizną na cele statutowe fundacji (wpłaty z pośrednictwem płatności on-line już od 10 zł) https://bit.ly/2nB1Tci Dziękuję:-) Jarosław Gibas

เมื่อ Noise หรือเสียงรบกวนได้สร้างข้อบกพร่องในการตัดสินใจของมนุษย์ ในระยะยาว Daniel Kahneman มองเห็นโลกที่เราอาจ “ไม่ต้องการคน” เพื่อตัดสินใจในหลาย ๆ อย่าง เมื่อสามารถจัดโครงสร้างปัญหาและรวบรวมข้อมูลที่เพียงพอเกี่ยวกับปัญหาเหล่านั้นได้ ผู้พิพากษาที่เป็นมนุษย์ก็อาจไม่จำเป็นอีกต่อไป ซึ่งต้องบอกว่ามันยังมีอีกหลายอย่างที่ต้องทำในการลดความผิดพลาดของมนุษย์ โดยการปรับปรุงวิจารณญาณของมนุษย์ หรือสุดท้ายการตัดสินใจเรื่องใหญ่ ๆ อาจจะต้องถูก outsource ไปยังเครื่องจักรหรือ AI ให้ทำงานแทน เลือกฟังกันได้เลยนะครับ อย่าลืมกด Follow ติดตาม PodCast ช่อง Geek Forever's Podcast ของผมกันด้วยนะครับ ========================= ร่วมสนับสนุน ด.ดล Blog และ Geek Forever Podcast เพื่อให้เรามีกำลังในการผลิต Content ดี ๆ ให้กับท่าน https://www.tharadhol.com/become-a-supporter/ ——————————————– ติดตาม ด.ดล Blog ผ่าน Line OA เพียงคลิก : https://lin.ee/aMEkyNA ========================= ช่องทางติดตาม ด.ดล Blog เพิ่มเติมได้ที่ Fanpage : www.facebook.com/tharadhol.blog Blockdit : www.blockdit.com/tharadhol.blog Twitter : www.twitter.com/tharadhol Instragram : instragram.com/tharadhol TikTok : tiktok.com/@geek.forever Youtube : www.youtube.com/c/mrtharadhol Linkedin : www.linkedin.com/in/tharadhol Website : www.tharadhol.com

On this episode of Stay Tuned, Preet answers listener questions about the New York AG's report on the sexual misconduct allegations against Governor Andrew Cuomo.  Then, Preet interviews renowned psychologist Dr. Daniel Kahneman, winner of the 2002 Nobel Prize in Economics that recognized his groundbreaking research on human rationality. He joins Preet to discuss his newest book, Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment, co-authored with Olivier Sibony and Cass R. Sunstein. For show notes and a transcript of the episode, head to: https://cafe.com/stay-tuned/a-flaw-in-human-judgment-with-daniel-kahneman/ Don't miss the bonus for CAFE Insiders, where Kahneman discusses winning the Nobel Prize and whether lucky people exist.  As always, tweet your questions to @PreetBharara with hashtag #askpreet, email us at staytuned@cafe.com, or call 669-247-7338 to leave a voicemail. Stay Tuned with Preet is produced by CAFE Studios and the Vox Media Podcast Network. Executive Producer: Tamara Sepper; Senior Editorial Producer: Adam Waller; Technical Director: David Tatasciore; Audio Producer: Matthew Billy; Editorial Producers: Noa Azulai, Sam Ozer-Staton, David Kurlander.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Host Reed Galen is joined by author and legal scholar Cass R. Sunstein to discuss a couple of his new titles, This is Not Normal: The Politics of Everyday Expectations and Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgement. They talk about changing norms in our nation, the fluidity of color, overcoming noise/variability, and more. Plus, is "lapidation" making a comeback?

We tend to assume that, faced with the same problem on separate occasions, professionals will typically arrive at the same judgements — doctors will make the same diagnoses, mortgage lenders will set the same rates, judges will hand down the same sentences. But is professional judgement really as reliable as we think it is? This week on the The Mind Tools L&D Podcast, the team discuss Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgement, the new book from Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony and Cass R. Sunstein. We cover: what 'noise' is in the context of judgement the distinction between noise and bias strategies for minimising noise potential implications for L&D Show notes Noise is out now and is available from all good booksellers. The ProPublica article Ross G mentioned can be found at: https://www.propublica.org/article/machine-bias-risk-assessments-in-criminal-sentencing He also referred to 'This Place Is Full of It: Towards an Organizational Bullshit Perception Scale', a paper which is explored in this article: https://www.psypost.org/2021/07/researchers-explore-employee-perceptions-of-bullshit-in-the-workplace-with-the-organizational-bullshit-perception-scale-61415 For more from us, including access to our back catalogue of podcasts, visit emeraldworks.com. There, you'll also find details of our award-winning performance support toolkit, our off-the-shelf e-learning, and our custom work. Connect with our speakers If you'd like to share your thoughts on this episode, connect with our speakers on Twitter: Ross Dickie - @RossDickieEW Owen Ferguson - @OwenFerguson Ross Garner - @RossGarnerEW Nahdia Khan - @_nahdia_khan Gemma Towersey - @gemmatowersey

Timothy shares the final episode of his 3-part series about ‘Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment' - a book written about how the seemingly small and irrelevant things such as the weather, dietary choices, time of day and more, can influence your decision making. In part 3, he explores how to conduct a noise audit and reduce the influence of noise through what's called ‘Decision Hygiene'.  cliffcentral.com

Timothy shares the final episode of his 3-part series about ‘Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment’ - a book written about how the seemingly small and irrelevant things such as the weather, dietary choices, time of day and more, can influence your decision making. In part 3, he explores how to conduct a noise audit and reduce the influence of noise through what’s called ‘Decision Hygiene’. cliffcentral.com

Timothy shares the final episode of his 3-part series about ‘Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment' - a book written about how the seemingly small and irrelevant things such as the weather, dietary choices, time of day and more, can influence your decision making. In part 3, he explores how to conduct a noise audit and reduce the influence of noise through what's called ‘Decision Hygiene'. 

In this episode, we have our 2nd conversation with Cass Sunstein, the American legal scholar and Professor at Harvard Law School, the co-author of Nudge and a pioneer in the application of Behavioral Science to public policy. This conversation centers on Cass' latest book, Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment, which he co-authored with Nobel Prize winning Professor Daniel Kahneman and Professor Olivier Sibony.

The pandemic has exacerbated an already alarming teacher shortage across the U.S., with many educators burned out and rethinking whether to stay in the profession; we explore the issue and solutions. A pair of behavioral scientists also explain what “noise” is in professional judgment and why it affects everything from criminal justice to medical treatments. Plus, the latest in the nation's political landscape, including plans by Democrats to expand voting as Republicans push for limits in GOP-led states. Today's Guests ‌Ken‌ ‌Rudin's‌ ‌Political‌ ‌Junkie‌ ‌podcast‌ host and longtime political journalist ‌‌Ken‌ ‌Rudin‌‌ with the latest in the U.S. political landscape  EdSource Senior Reporter Carolyn Jones on the challenges facing schools as pandemic restrictions loosen up, including the teacher shortage happening across the country and in California Nobel Prize-winning psychologist and Daniel Kahneman and professor of strategy and business policy at HEC Paris Olivier Sibony discuss their new book "Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment," what to do when professionals don't agree, and navigating human judgment

Timothy shares part 2 of his 3-part series about ‘Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment’ - a book written about how the seemingly small and irrelevant things such as the weather, dietary choices, time of day and more, can influence your decision making. In part 2 he explores the 3 levels of noise, and how you can determine if you and your business are vulnerable because of it. For more on Noise and to go a little deeper, click here. cliffcentral.com

Timothy shares part 2 of his 3-part series about ‘Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment' - a book written about how the seemingly small and irrelevant things such as the weather, dietary choices, time of day and more, can influence your decision making. In part 2 he explores the 3 levels of noise, and how you can determine if you and your business are vulnerable because of it. For more on Noise and to go a little deeper, click here. cliffcentral.com

Timothy shares part 2 of his 3-part series about ‘Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment' - a book written about how the seemingly small and irrelevant things such as the weather, dietary choices, time of day and more, can influence your decision making. In part 2 he explores the 3 levels of noise, and how you can determine if you and your business are vulnerable because of it. For more on Noise and to go a little deeper, click here.

Timothy launches a 3-part series about ‘Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment' - a book written about how the seemingly small and irrelevant things such as the weather, dietary choices, time of day, and more can influence your decision making. He hopes to inspire you to look at your unique circumstances to reduce the noise in your life, as well as connect with others by understanding their 'noise'. cliffcentral.com

Timothy launches a 3-part series about ‘Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment’ - a book written about how the seemingly small and irrelevant things such as the weather, dietary choices, time of day, and more can influence your decision making. He hopes to inspire you to look at your unique circumstances to reduce the noise in your life, as well as connect with others by understanding their 'noise'. cliffcentral.com

Timothy launches a 3-part series about ‘Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment' - a book written about how the seemingly small and irrelevant things such as the weather, dietary choices, time of day, and more can influence your decision making. He hopes to inspire you to look at your unique circumstances to reduce the noise in your life, as well as connect with others by understanding their 'noise'.

Linnea Gandhi is a researcher, teacher, and practitioner of behavioral science in business settings. And she's obsessed with error; studying it, fixing it, and even embracing it to enable better decisions by individuals and organizations.Her work on error intentionally straddles academia and the real world: She teaches decision science at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, studies it as part of her PhD at the Wharton School of Business, and consults on it through her company, BehavioralSight. Linnea's team is launching an online course called "Beyond Bias: How Noise May Be Drowning Out Your Decision Accuracy". This course is designed to complement the recently released book on the topic, called NOISE, by Daniel Kahneman and two coauthors. Linnea spent the last three supporting with research and editing behind the scenes.For listeners interested in the course, check out https://behavioralsight.teachable.com/p/beyondbias. If you enter MCMAHON75 you will get $75 off the price tag.Mentioned In This Episode:Behavioral SightDaniel KahnemanSteven LevittRichard ThalerNoise: A Flaw in Human Judgement By Daniel KahnemanDecision HygieneThinking in Bets by Annie DukeTime Codes:(3:21) - Linnea's origin story(5:35) - How did you come to work with Daniel Kahneman? (8:26) - Who is Daniel Kahneman?(9:49) - What have you learned from working with top-tier experts?(12:48) -  The importance of Mentorship in helping you step out on your own(17:56) -  Working on the book Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgement(20:26) - What is ‘Noise'?(22:03) - What is the difference between Noise and Bias? (29:30) - Bias' effect on Risk Management(35:47) - BUD/S training(40:28) - Linnea's consulting firm... Behavioral Sight(41:25) - Building the machine vs. Running the machine(43:16) - Where do people go to figure out how to put this in place for their own life?(44:28) - Linnea's course on Noise(48:21) - What do you believe about people or business that might be contrarian?(51:48) - What are you sick of talking about?(53:31) - The need to explain our world gets in the way of our ability to predict it (55:57) - What is the purpose of business?

In this episode, co-hosts Phil Ordway, Elliot Turner, and John Mihaljevic discuss (i) the idea of a noise audit in the investment process and Daniel Kahneman's new book, "Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment"; and (ii) whether customer acquisition cost (CAC) should be considered the new rent. Enjoy the conversation!   About the Co-Hosts: Elliot Turner is a co-founder and Managing Partner, CIO at RGA Investment Advisors, LLC. RGA Investment Advisors runs a long-term, low turnover, growth at a reasonable price investment strategy seeking out global opportunities. Elliot focuses on discovering and analyzing long-term, high quality investment opportunities and strategic portfolio management. Prior to joining RGA, Elliot managed portfolios at at AustinWeston Asset Management LLC, Chimera Securities and T3 Capital. Elliot holds the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation as well as a Juris Doctor from Brooklyn Law School.. He also holds a Bachelor of Arts degree from Emory University where he double majored in Political Science and Philosophy. Philip Ordway is Managing Principal and Portfolio Manager of Anabatic Fund, L.P. Previously, Philip was a partner at Chicago Fundamental Investment Partners (CFIP). At CFIP, which he joined in 2007, Philip was responsible for investments across the capital structure in various industries. Prior to joining CFIP, Philip was an analyst in structured corporate finance with Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. from 2002 to 2005. Philip earned his B.S. in Education & Social Policy and Economics from Northwestern University in 2002 and his M.B.A. from the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University in 2007, where he now serves as an Adjunct Professor in the Finance Department. John Mihaljevic leads MOI Global and serves as managing editor of The Manual of Ideas. He managed a private partnership, Mihaljevic Partners LP, from 2005-2016. John is a winner of the Value Investors Club's prize for best investment idea. He is a trained capital allocator, having studied under Yale University Chief Investment Officer David Swensen and served as Research Assistant to Nobel Laureate James Tobin. John holds a BA in Economics, summa cum laude, from Yale and is a CFA charterholder.   The content of this podcast is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction. The content is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to sell or buy any security or other investment, or undertake any investment strategy. There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth on this podcast. The podcast participants and their affiliates may have positions in and may, from time to time, make purchases or sales of the securities or other investments discussed or evaluated on this podcast.

Psychologist and Nobel Prize-winner Daniel Kahneman, management professor and former McKinsey partner Olivier Sibony, and legal scholar and behavioral economist Cass Sunstein offer remedies to reduce bias and ultimately make better decisions.

Subject: Business & Economics / Decision-Making & Problem Solving, Psychology / Applied Psychology, Psychology / Cognitive Psychology & Cognition, Psychology / Social Psychology, Social Science / Sociology / Social Theory, Education / Decision-Making & Problem Solving Source: Frye, D. (2021, May/June). Why we're imperfect judges. Psychology Today, 54(3), 12. Side Note: I chose this article because I have been coming across many talks with Kahneman on other great podcasts and I think the subject is very relevant. The book referenced in this article is, Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment by Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, Cass Sunstein. I'm super grateful to you for liking and sharing this podcast, but if you'd also like to support me with a no-gift-too-small donation, you can do that by visiting my Patreon page.

Два врача ставят больному разные диагнозы. Два специалиста кадровой службы расходятся во мнении по поводу кандидата на вакансию. И даже один и тот же человек решает одну и ту же задачу по-разному в разные дни недели. Почему так происходит? Психолог, лауреат Нобелевской премии по экономике, отец-основатель поведенческой экономики, автор «Думай медленно… Решай быстро» Даниэль Канеман с соавторами попытались разобраться в причинах подобных различий в книге «Шум. Изъяны человеческого суждения» (Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment), вышедшей на английском языке 18 мая. В библиотеке Smart Reading уже есть саммари — читайте или слушайте впервые на русском.

In dieser Folge sprechen Agnieszka und Alexander über die weitreichenden Regulierungen der Techunternehmen in den USA und welche nicht unbedingt positiven Konsequenzen diese für die Konsumenten haben könnten. Zudem geht es um den Staatstrojaner und neue Regelungen zur Überwachung in Deutschland, welche Probleme Facebook mit seinen Usern hinsichtlich Autolikern und Botfarmen hat, was Stripe mit seinem neuesten Features vor hat, wie Shopify seine Plattform konsequent ausbaut, den Launch des Clubhouse-Rivalen Greenroom, erfolgte und geplante Börsengänge von AboutYou und Mister Spex, Drohnenlieferung bei Walmart, den geringen Frauenanteil in den Vorständen von deutschen Startups sowie die aktuellen Sponsoren der Fußball-EM 2021, auf die man mal einen genauen Blick werfen sollte. --- Die Themen der Folge 124: --- • Privacy, Advertising und die Monopolstellungen der BigTechs https://www.politico.com/news/2021/06/15/big-tech-house-antitrust-changes-494506 https://www.creativeconstruction.de/blog/lp/trends2015/redefinition-privacy/ https://appleinsider.com/articles/21/06/16/proposed-antitrust-bills-would-ban-apple-from-preinstalling-its-own-ios-apps https://twitter.com/Carnage4Life/status/1406392302591905795 • Staatstrojaner: Neue Regelungen zur Überwachung https://www.spiegel.de/netzwelt/netzpolitik/bundestag-genehmigt-staatstrojaner-fuer-alle-a-d01006d4-a530-41c9-ad69-21a3990acfa8 • Autoliker, Botfarmen und Fake News: Schwierige Problemstellungen bei Facebook https://restofworld.org/2021/sophie-zhang-facebook-autolikers/ • Stripe Identity: Online-Identitätsnachweis in Sekunden https://www.readthegeneralist.com/briefing/stripe • Wie Shopify mit smarten Investments Plattform, Geschäft und Belegschaft ausweitet https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-shopify-confirms-significant-investment-in-payment-processor-stripe/ https://www.fastcompany.com/90647547/shopify-dev-degree-program-remote-learning-tech • Spotify Greenroom: Ein erster Blick auf den Clubhouse-Rivalen https://newsroom.spotify.com/2021-06-16/get-to-know-some-of-the-features-in-our-live-interactive-audio-offering-greenroom/ • Spotify, Podz und die Bedeutung von Podcasts für die Plattform https://www.theverge.com/2021/6/15/22534981/spotify-exclusive-podcast-call-her-daddy-alex-cooper https://twitter.com/TrungTPhan/status/1405889986306535424 • Zalando-Konkurrenz AboutYou geht an die Börse https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/maerkte/aktien/ipo-erfolgreiches-boersendebuet-des-zalando-konkurrenten-about-you-aktie-legt-zu/27288300.html • Brillenhändler Mister Spex plant Börsengang https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/handel-konsumgueter/ipo-mister-spex-will-mit-boersengang-225-millionen-euro-einsammeln-/27283958.html • Geringer Frauenanteil in den Vorständen bei deutschen Startups https://www.sueddeutsche.de/wirtschaft/allbright-stiftung-start-ups-boerse-frauen-in-fuehrungspositionen-1.5324162!amp https://www.sueddeutsche.de/wirtschaft/encourage-ventures-startup-frauen-1.5323612 • Amazon und das Just Walk Out-Konzept https://buff.ly/2SrSTWz • Walmart will Drohnelieferung forcieren https://corporate.walmart.com/newsroom/2021/06/17/walmart-invests-in-droneup-the-nationwide-on-demand-drone-delivery-provider • Die neuen Sponsoren der EM 2021 https://de.uefa.com/uefaeuro-2020/sponsors/ https://www.wsj.com/articles/tiktok-owner-bytedances-annual-revenue-jumps-to-34-3-billion-11623903622 https://fortune.com/2021/06/08/china-tech-crackdown-beyond-jack-ma-investors-stock/ https://twitter.com/gdalmiathinks/status/1405395645947551746 --- » Die Buchempfehlung der Woche: Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, Cass Sunstein: "Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment“ https://www.amazon.de/Noise-Human-Judgment-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0316451401 --- » Weitere Infos, Kontakt und alle Podcasts: https://zurueckzurzukunft.creativeconstruction.de/ --- » Feedback, Anregungen und Wünsche an: podcast@zurueckzurzukunft.de

Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients. Now imagine that the same doctor making a different decision depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. This is an example of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical. Shermer speaks with Nobel Prize winning psychologist and economist Daniel Kahneman about the detrimental effects of noise and what we can do to reduce both noise and bias, and make better decisions in: medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection.

It is our pleasure to welcome back Linnea Gandhi to the podcast! Linnea manages the boutique consulting firm BehavioralSight; develops and teaches applied behavioral science courses at the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business; is pursuing her Ph.D. at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania; and lately has been keeping busy with helping to edit and organize the newly published book, “Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment,” written by renowned behavioral economists Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass Sunstein. She also loves her puppies, and your puppies too.   In today's episode, Erik and Zarak explore with Linnea the differences between bias and noise, as well as the difficulty in designing behavioral interventions that are easy, relatable, and impactful. A lack of psychological safety in corporate culture makes it difficult to even find error and failure in companies, let alone try to improve them. The reason is because professionals (and people in general) are programmed to provide solutions. We're rewarded for fixing things, or making them better – not so much for pointing out glaring errors that no one has noticed if we don't have a ready-made answer for how to solve them.   How to address this gap, you ask? Well, you might start with a “noise audit.” Tune in and find out how to get started! Or sign up for her new online class on the subject at https://www.behavioralsight.com/online-learning.

Despite increased fears about inflation the S&P 500 hits a new all-time high. Chewy, RH, and Marvell Technology all post better 1st-quarter results than Wall Street was expecting. Dave & Buster's pops. Casey's General Stores drops. Monday.com makes its public debut. Stitch Fix shows encouraging growth as it gets ready for a new CEO. Jason Moser and Ron Gross analyze those stories and share why Masimo and Accenture are on their radar. Plus, best-selling author and Nobel Prize-winner Daniel Kahneman shares insights from his new book, Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment.   Interested in getting stock research delivered right to your email? Get 50% off Stock Advisor just by going to http://RadarStocks.fool.com.  

--On the Show: --Olivier Sibony, Professor at HEC Paris and co-author of the book "Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment," co-written by Daniel Kahneman and Cass Sunstein, joins David to discuss human decision making, noise, bias, and more. Get the book: https://amzn.to/3crbecK --Will August bring the sequel to the January 6 Trump riots? --There were 10 mass shootings this past weekend, and barely any made news --Rudy Giuliani has been caught on audio recordings calling Ukraine to pressure them into announcing an investigation into Joe Biden --Donald Trump hits a new low during a Fox Business interview with host Stuart Varney, claiming that Mark Zuckerberg did something with lockboxes filled with ballot dumps --Right wing provocateur Milo Yiannopoulos now says he is no longer gay, and has been doing a bizarre round of interviews --Leaked files show that many billionaires pay effectively no taxes --Voicemail caller asks whether more Trumpists would currently be getting vaccinated if Donald Trump had won the 2020 Presidential election --On the Bonus Show: US recovers millions in cryptocurrency paid to Colonial Pipeline hackers, Republicans pledge allegiance to fossil fuels, SCOTUS rules against immigrants in temporary status, much more... ⌚ Use code PAKMAN for 15% off Vincero watches at https://davidpakman.com/watch ✌️ Listen to the UNFTR podcast at https://davidpakman.com/republic

Daniel Kahneman is a celebrated psychologist, economist, Nobel Prize winner, and author of the much-lauded Thinking, Fast and Slow and his latest, Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment. What We Discuss with Daniel Kahneman: Why we don’t always produce the same results when faced with the same facts on two different occasions. How noise -- in this context, variability in judgments that should be identical -- influences our choices. How the detrimental effects of noise in medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection can ruin (and even end) lives. How to tell the difference between noise and good old-fashioned bias. How we can reduce the role of noise and bias in our lives to make our best choices. And much more... Full show notes and resources can be found here: jordanharbinger.com/518 Sign up for Six-Minute Networking -- our free networking and relationship development mini course -- at jordanharbinger.com/course! Like this show? Please leave us a review here -- even one sentence helps! Consider including your Twitter handle so we can thank you personally!

As co-hosts, this podcast has provided many opportunities to interview incredibly high-achieving people. Our line-up has included authors, designers, artists, academics, scientists, doctors, lawyers, CEO's, and more! We've had these individuals on the show to discuss topics such as humans' yearning to belong, steps we can take to begin mending racial trauma, and femininity in the modern world, and throughout these interviews, a common question arises: What does it take to become the kind of high-achieving individual we frequently interview? In this special 200th episode of Psychologists Off the Clock, Angela Duckworth, founder and CEO of Character Lab and author of Grit: The Power of Passion and Perseverance, and Yael discuss grit and how it's associated with high achievement. By combining passion and perseverance in the pursuit of a singular goal, many have found success. Join us in this episode to learn more about what it takes to succeed and how you can grow grit in your own life today! Listen and Learn: The joy we feel in reaching our 200th episode and the passion and perseverance (read: Grit) it took to get hereDiana's personal experience using her values to guide her grit (and when and how you can do the same!)The values that continue to guide our podcast's growthA peek inside Angela and Stephen's podcast, No Stupid QuestionsAngela's expert definition of grit and how it is associated with achievementHow grit and parenthood can build upon and strengthen one anotherThe importance of values in your relationship with perseverance Some differences between how interpersonal skills, likeability, and grit each lend themselves to successPractical advice for knowing “when to grit” and “when to quit”Yael's expert break-down of how grit works with principles of ACTAngela's simple, evidence-based recommendations for growing grit Resources: Angela's book, Grit: The Power of Passion and PerseveranceAngela's TED talk (one of the most-viewed TED talks of all time!)Angela and Stephen Dubner's podcast, No Stupid QuestionsKaty Milkman's book, How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to BeRobert Cialdini's book, Influence, New and Expanded: The Psychology of PersuasionAdam Grant's book, Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Don't KnowDaniel Kahneman's book, Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment Elizabeth Nyamayaro's book, I Am a Girl from Africa    Esther Wojcicki's book, How to Raise Successful People: Simple Lessons for Radical Results  About Dr. Angela Duckworth: Angela Duckworth, PhD, is the founder and CEO of Character Lab, a nonprofit whose mission is to advance scientific insights that help children thrive. She is also the Rosa Lee and Egbert Chang Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, faculty co-director of the Penn-Wharton Behavior Change for Good Initiative, and faculty co-director of Wharton People Analytics. Angela completed her undergraduate degree in Advanced Studies Neurobiology at Harvard, graduating magna cum laude. With the support of a Marshall Scholarship, she completed an MSc with Distinction in Neuroscience from Oxford University. She completed her PhD in Psychology as a National Science Foundation Graduate Fellow at the University of Pennsylvania. A 2013 MacArthur Fellow, Angela has advised the World Bank, NBA and NFL teams, and Fortune 500 CEOs. Prior to her career in research, Angela founded a summer school for underserved children that was profiled as a Harvard Kennedy School case study and, in 2018, celebrated its 25th anniversary. She has also been a McKinsey management consultant and a math and science teacher at public schools in New York City, San Francisco, and Philadelphia. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Podcast: Masters in Business (LS 65 · TOP 0.05% what is this?)Episode: Daniel Kahneman on Behavioral Economics (Podcast)Pub date: 2021-05-14Bloomberg Opinion columnist Barry Ritholtz speaks with behavioral economics expert Daniel Kahneman, who wrote the bestselling book "Thinking, Fast and Slow" and won the Nobel Prize in economics. Kahneman is a professor emeritus of psychology and public affairs at Princeton University and a fellow of the Center for Rationality at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. His latest book, coauthored with Olivier Sibony and Cass Sunstein, is "Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment."See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from Bloomberg, which is the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Listen Notes, Inc.

Podcast: Masters in Business (LS 65 · TOP 0.05% what is this?)Episode: Daniel Kahneman on Behavioral Economics (Podcast)Pub date: 2021-05-14Bloomberg Opinion columnist Barry Ritholtz speaks with behavioral economics expert Daniel Kahneman, who wrote the bestselling book "Thinking, Fast and Slow" and won the Nobel Prize in economics. Kahneman is a professor emeritus of psychology and public affairs at Princeton University and a fellow of the Center for Rationality at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. His latest book, coauthored with Olivier Sibony and Cass Sunstein, is "Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment."See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from Bloomberg, which is the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Listen Notes, Inc.

If bail decisions were made by an Artificial Intelligence instead of judges, repeat crime rates among applicants could be cut by 25%. That is because an AI is consistent in its judgements: human judges are not.   This variation in in bail decisions, as well as in sentencing, and many medical diagnoses and underwriting decisions are all examples of what Cass Sunstein calls "Noise" - unwanted variation in professional judgement, which is the theme of his new book Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgement, co authored with Danny Kahneman and Olivier Sibony. Professional judgement and discretion sound great in theory - especially to the professionals themselves - but in practice they end up creating a lottery in some high-stakes situations. He tells me why there should be statues of the legal reformer Marvin Frankel all across the land; how we can reduce the "creep factor" of AI decision-making; how early movers influence opinion especially through social media, and much more.  Cass Sunstein Cass Sunstein is a professor at Harvard Law School, as well as the founder and director of the Program on Behavioral Economics and Public Policy. He has written hundreds of articles and numerous books, ranging from constitutional law to Star Wars. He has also served in several government positions, formerly in the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs in Obama's first administration and currently in the Department of Homeland Security to shape immigration laws. Sunstein's influence is wide-reaching, most notably from his work on advancing the field of behavioral economics, making him one of the most frequently cited scholars. He is also a recipient of the Holberg Prize and has several appointments in global organizations, including the World Health Organization.  More from Cass Sunstein Read “Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgement” co-authored with Daniel Kahneman and Olivier Sibony Read his widely influential 2008 book “Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness,” co-authored with Richard Thaler, as well as his later book “Why Nudge? The Politics of Libertarian Paternalism”  Dig into his work on “norm cascades”, as well as how group polarization works in jury pools  Check out his previous work on jury behavior with Kahneman including “Assessing Punitive Damages” or “Are Juries Less Erratic than Individuals?”  Also mentioned Cass mentioned the 2007 asylum study by Schoenholtz, et al. titled “Refugee Roulette: Disparities in Asylum Adjudication” I referred to this NBER paper by Eren & Mocan showing that the behavior of judges can be influenced by arbitrary factors, including by the outcome of local sports games.  Cass brought up the work of Sendhil Mullainathan, which includes a study on “Human Decisions and Machine Predictions” and another on “Who Is Tested for Heart Attack and Who Should Be” We discussed the Sentencing Reform Act of 1984 which imposed guidelines for criminal sentencing but was essentially dismantled in a 2004 Supreme Court ruling  Learn more about the APGAR infant score  Jim Surowiecki, the author of “The Wisdom of Crowds,” discusses the weight of the cow parable on an episode of Planet Money Yet the wisdom of crowds phenomenon is often diminished when the group discusses their judgements and are exposed to social influence, as demonstrated by the study: “How social influence can undermine the wisdom of crowd effect”  In 2006, Duncan Watts, along with two co-authors, explored how early downloads were instrumental in predicting popularity in their article “Experimental Study of Inequality and Unpredictability in an Artificial Cultural Market”  I quoted John Stuart Mill in Utilitarianism, “Men often, from infirmity of character, make their election for the nearer good, though they know it to be the less valuable”  Cass referred to Mill's harm principle, something he expands upon here. We also discussed Patrick Deneen's book “Why Liberalism Failed”  The Dialogues Team Creator: Richard Reeves Research: Ashleigh Maciolek Artwork: George Vaughan Thomas Tech Support: Cameron Hauver-Reeves Music: "Remember" by Bencoolen (thanks for the permission, guys!)

Olivier Sibony is a Professor at HEC Paris and an Associate Fellow of Saïd Business School in Oxford University. Together with Daniel Kahneman and Cass R. Sunstein he recently published a new book, Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment, which focuses on the scatter inherent in decision making. Learn more about how noise differs from bias, how it arises, and how it can be reduced through what the authors call decision-making hygiene. In a conversation with Martin Reeves, Chairman of the BCG Henderson Institute, Sibony discusses how noise differs from bias, how noise happens, and gives practical suggestions for how to reduce noise across industries and use cases. *** About the BCG Henderson Institute The BCG Henderson Institute is the Boston Consulting Group's think tank, dedicated to exploring and developing valuable new insights from business, technology, economics, and science by embracing the powerful technology of ideas. The Institute engages leaders in provocative discussion and experimentation to expand the boundaries of business theory and practice and to translate innovative ideas from within and beyond business. For more ideas and inspiration, sign up to receive BHI INSIGHTS, our monthly newsletter, and follow us on LinkedIn and Twitter.

Linnea Gandhi is one of our favorite people to talk with and we had the pleasure of welcoming Linnea back to Behavioral Grooves recently. We last spoke to her in 2018 when she confessed to having a crush on statistics (a crush she clearly still harbors!) Since that time though, she has made a significant contribution to the infamous new book Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment by Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony and Cass Sunstein (https://amzn.to/3heyr5r). Linnea served as the chief of staff; project managing, researching and editing the groundbreaking work on the book. When we interviewed Olivier Sibony about Linnea’s contribution, he was glowing with compliments about her: “it took someone as miraculously organized, helpful and smart, always positive and in a consistently cheerful, good mood. And I can't imagine anyone else on the planet who could have pulled this off, but Linnea did. So she's amazing.” Linnea is a researcher, teacher, and practitioner of behavioral science in business settings. And she’s obsessed with error. Studying it, fixing it, and even embracing it – to enable better decisions by individuals and organizations. Linnea is passionate about bridging the gap between behavioral science in academia and its application in the real world. She teaches decision science at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, studies it as part of her PhD at the Wharton School of Business, and consults on it through her company, BehavioralSight (https://behavioralsight.teachable.com/). This foothold in both worlds, has given Linnea the expertise for her current project which sees her teaching the topic of noise in an “edu-tainment” online video course.  The tremendous new course (we got a sneak peak...it’s fantastic) is called Beyond Bias: How Noise May Be Drowning Out Your Decision Making Accuracy which is due to be published in June 2021. The course is purposefully designed for busy professionals who want to understand noise and how to mitigate it in organizations. Linnea and her team have meticulously planned the course videos so that they are short yet informative and entertaining. She is well aware that they are competing with Netflix for people’s attention! Our conversation weaves in some endearing anecdotes about her personal experience of working with Kahneman, Sunstein and Sibony on the book. As well as some of the hurdles of working (and recording) from home that many of us can identify with from the last year. But Linnea’s passion for her work on noise and her enthusiasm for statistics is contagious. So much so that it has almost convinced Kurt to start reading about statistics in his spare time (almost!) We hope you enjoy listening to Linnea’s work in behavioral science. At Behavioral Grooves, we are passionate about bringing you cutting edge interviews with the world’s best behavioral science practitioners, researchers and authors. If you would like to help support our work, please consider becoming a Behavioral Grooves Patreon at https://www.patreon.com/behavioralgrooves, we really appreciate the support. © 2021 Behavioral Grooves   Topics We Discuss With Linnea (3:07) Speed Round (6:39) About Linnea’s new course on NOISE (16:45) Why humans don’t see easily see randomness (19:58) Working behind the scenes on NOISE (22:48) How did the authors first collaborate on NOISE (26:53) What finally convinced Linnea to get a PhD  (36:12) Decision Hygiene and Linnea’s favorite technique (41:20) Music (43:20) Grooving Session Links “Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment” by Kahneman, Sibony and Sunstein, 2021 https://amzn.to/3heyr5r Statistics As Principled Argument https://amzn.to/3uhRU8c  Linnea’s Video Course on Noise (coming in June 2021) “Beyond Bias: How Noise May Be Drowning Out Your Decision Making Accuracy” https://www.behavioralsight.com/online-learning  Episode 224: Why Is Noise Worse Than Bias? Olivier Sibony Explains https://behavioralgrooves.com/episode/noise-with-olivier-sibony/ Episode 38: Linnea Gandhi: Crushing On Statistics https://behavioralgrooves.com/episode/linnea-gandhi-crushing-on-statistics/ Daniel Kahneman https://amzn.to/2QQksId  Cass Sunstein https://amzn.to/3uj61Kp  Olivier Sibony https://amzn.to/3u8LBnp   Noise: How to Overcome the High, Hidden Cost of Inconsistent Decision Making https://hbr.org/2016/10/noise  Episode 176: Annie Duke on How to Decide https://behavioralgrooves.com/episode/annie-duke-on-how-to-decide/ Tania Lombrozo (Explanations) https://psych.princeton.edu/person/tania-lombrozo  Mona Lisa https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mona_Lisa  A Structured Approach to Strategic Decisions https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/a-structured-approach-to-strategic-decisions/  Duncan Watts https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duncan_J._Watts  Angela Duckworth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angela_Duckworth  Episode 99: Katy Milkman: Behavior Change for Good https://behavioralgrooves.com/episode/behavior-change-for-good/ Barbara Mellers https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barbara_Mellers  Maurice Schweitzer https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maurice_Schweitzer  Richard E. Nisbett “Thinking: A Memoir” https://amzn.to/341F4A4  Pareidolia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareidolia  Musical Links Macklemore & Ryan Lewis “Thrift Shop” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QK8mJJJvaes&ab_channel=MacklemoreLLC   White Noise https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMfPqeZjc2c&ab_channel=RelaxingWhiteNoiseRelaxingWhiteNoiseOfficialArtistChannel 

The following is a conversation between Cass Sunstein, Co-Author of Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment, and Denver Frederick, the Host of The Business of Giving. If we could only remove bias from our decision-making, both conscious and unconscious bias, the decisions we make would be so much better. And that's true... up to a point. There is something else, however, we need to consider, and that is noise. And wherever there's a judgment being made, there is noise, and more of it than we think. That is a topic of an absolutely fascinating new book called Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment. And it's a pleasure to have with us it's co-author, Harvard Law School professor, who's currently on leave to work in the Biden administration, Cass Sunstein.

------------------Support the channel------------ Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/thedissenter PayPal: paypal.me/thedissenter PayPal Subscription 1 Dollar: https://tinyurl.com/yb3acuuy PayPal Subscription 3 Dollars: https://tinyurl.com/ybn6bg9l PayPal Subscription 5 Dollars: https://tinyurl.com/ycmr9gpz PayPal Subscription 10 Dollars: https://tinyurl.com/y9r3fc9m PayPal Subscription 20 Dollars: https://tinyurl.com/y95uvkao ------------------Follow me on--------------------- Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/thedissenteryt/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/TheDissenterYT This show is sponsored by Enlites, Learning & Development done differently. Check the website here: http://enlites.com/ Dr. Olivier Sibony is Associate Professor at HEC Paris. He is a writer, educator and consultant specializing in strategy, strategic decision making and the organization of decision processes. His research interests center on the effect of heuristics and biases in strategic decision making and procedures to improve the quality of decisions. He is the author of Cracked It!, You're About to Make a Terrible Mistake, and, more recently, Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment. In this episode, we focus on Noise. We start with some definitions of judgment, biases, and noise. We discuss if noise has causes behind it. We talk about noise in specific instances, like regular vs. recurrent decisions, and give examples in hiring decisions, insurance, student evaluation, criminal punishment, medicine, weather forecasting, and others. We also talk about predictive judgment. We tackle issues like group polarization and the wisdom of crowds. Finally, we talk about solutions to tackle noise. -- A HUGE THANK YOU TO MY PATRONS/SUPPORTERS: KARIN LIETZCKE, ANN BLANCHETTE, PER HELGE LARSEN, LAU GUERREIRO, JERRY MULLER, HANS FREDRIK SUNDE, BERNARDO SEIXAS, HERBERT GINTIS, RUTGER VOS, RICARDO VLADIMIRO, CRAIG HEALY, OLAF ALEX, PHILIP KURIAN, JONATHAN VISSER, JAKOB KLINKBY, ADAM KESSEL, MATTHEW WHITINGBIRD, ARNAUD WOLFF, TIM HOLLOSY, HENRIK AHLENIUS, JOHN CONNORS, PAULINA BARREN, FILIP FORS CONNOLLY, DAN DEMETRIOU, ROBERT WINDHAGER, RUI INACIO, ARTHUR KOH, ZOOP, MARCO NEVES, COLIN HOLBROOK, SUSAN PINKER, THOMAS TRUMBLE, PABLO SANTURBANO, SIMON COLUMBUS, PHIL KAVANAGH, JORGE ESPINHA, CORY CLARK, MARK BLYTH, ROBERTO INGUANZO, MIKKEL STORMYR, ERIC NEURMANN, SAMUEL ANDREEFF, FRANCIS FORDE, TIAGO NUNES, BERNARD HUGUENEY, ALEXANDER DANNBAUER, OMARI HICKSON, FERGAL CUSSEN, YEVHEN BODRENKO, HAL HERZOG, NUNO MACHADO, DON ROSS, JONATHAN LEIBRANT, JOÃO LINHARES, OZLEM BULUT, NATHAN NGUYEN, STANTON T, SAMUEL CORREA, ERIK HAINES, MARK SMITH, J.W., JOÃO EIRA, TOM HUMMEL, SARDUS FRANCE, DAVID SLOAN WILSON, YACILA DEZA-ARAUJO, IDAN SOLON, ROMAIN ROCH, DMITRY GRIGORYEV, TOM ROTH, DIEGO LONDOÑO CORREA, YANICK PUNTER, ADANER USMANI, CHARLOTTE BLEASE, MIRAN B, NICOLE BARBARO, ADAM HUNT, PAWEL OSTASZEWSKI, MAX BEILBY, AL ORTIZ, NELLEKE BAK, KATHRINE AND PATRICK TOBIN, GUY MADISON, GARY G HELLMANN, AND SAIMA AFZAL! A SPECIAL THANKS TO MY PRODUCERS, YZAR WEHBE, JIM FRANK, ŁUKASZ STAFINIAK, IAN GILLIGAN, SERGIU CODREANU, LUIS CAYETANO, TOM VANEGDOM, CURTIS DIXON, BENEDIKT MUELLER, VEGA GIDEY, AND NIRUBAN BALACHANDRAN! AND TO MY EXECUTIVE PRODUCERS, MICHAL RUSIECKI, ROSEY, JAMES PRATT, AND MATTHEW LAVENDER!

When human judgment enters the picture, so too will errors in human judgment. Think of this as “noise,” just as you might think of a signal-to-noise ratio in an audio signal. And just as in listening to music, this noise is not a feature, but a flaw. In the context of human action, management professor at HEC Paris and former McKinsey senior partner Olivier Sibony defines “noise” as the unwanted variability in human judgment. “When you look at how people make a professional judgment, there is an average error … and that is what has traditionally been called bias in statistics and in the study of judgment. But when you have already identified bias, there is something left, and that is the unshared error, the unwanted variability of errors, that is noise.” In a new book, Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment, by psychologist and Bites alumnus Daniel Kahneman, Sibony, and Harvard law professor Cass Sunstein (author of Nudge), the trio look at the lottery that noise creates in social outcomes, and discuss ways to practice better “decision hygiene” to prevent noise from infecting important outcomes. Coinciding with the release of Noise, Sibony spoke with interviewer David Edmonds in this Social Science Bites podcast about noise as a concept, the types of noise, why acknowledging it matters, and a little on what we can do to avoid it. This is an area of great interest for Sibony, whose own research centers on reducing the impact of behavioral bias. “Bias and noise,” Sibony explains, “are mathematically equivalent in the effect they have on error. Noise causes exactly as much error as bias does for the same quantity of noise or bias. “And so, if you can reduce noise, you can reduce error.” Or put another way, make better decisions. He gives the example of insurance claims adjusters. “When you look at how two of these people judge the same case, what price they set on the same insurance policy or the price they set on the same claim, and you ask them how much they expect to disagree, they say, ‘Of course we’re not going to be in perfect agreement; it’s a matter of judgment, after all. It’s still a calculation – we’re not just adding up numbers and saying, “The answer is X.” Otherwise our job would just be automated. That’s what makes the job interesting – it’s a matter of judgment. So we expect some disagreement between us. But hey! We are all highly qualified, competent people, so we are more or less interchangeable depending on who is available.’” If you ask the adjusters, or their bosses, about how much variability they expect, the answers come back around 10 percent. And if you ask business executives in general what they would expect the difference to be – and Sibony talked to hundreds -- the answers came back at 10 to 15 percent. But looking at the actual variability in real life, he reveals, the differences vary by as much as 55 percent. This isn’t just some peculiarity of insurance. “This was,” Sibony said, “something we found everywhere we looked!” He offers many examples: assessments by financial professionals, x-rays read by skilled doctors, professors grading essays, and many more. What he terms “big differences” appeared repeatedly “More worrisome, perhaps, if you look at how judges sentence people who have been found guilty of a crime … [W]hen the average sentence is seven years in prison, the average difference, the mean difference between two judges is three-and-a-half.” And so, as Sibony notes, when appearing before two judges, you’ve already been sentenced to five years, or to nine years, “just based on the luck of the draw.” This variability, this happenstance in outcomes, matters for a trio of reasons: fairness (“when similarly located people are not treated similarly, it is unfair”); credibility of the underlying institutions; and because we’re routinely making bad (or at least not the best) decisions. In addition to teaching strategy, decision making and problem solving at HEC Paris, Sibony is an associate fellow at Oxford University’s Saïd Business School. He writes often on strategy and decision making in the academic and popular press, and his book Vous Allez Commettre Une Terrible Erreur ! (published in English as You’re About to Make a Terrible Mistake!) received the was awarded the Manpower Foundation Grand Prize in 2019 for best management book. He is also a knight in the French Order of the Légion d’Honneur.

Nobel laureate, best-selling author, and groundbreaking psychologist Daniel Kahneman is also a friend and former business partner of Steve’s. In discussing Danny’s new book Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment, the two spar over inconsistencies in criminal sentencing and Danny tells Steve that “Your attitude is unusual” — no surprise there. 

Bloomberg Opinion columnist Barry Ritholtz speaks with behavioral economics expert Daniel Kahneman, who wrote the bestselling book "Thinking, Fast and Slow" and won the Nobel Prize in economics. Kahneman is a professor emeritus of psychology and public affairs at Princeton University and a fellow of the Center for Rationality at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. His latest book, coauthored with Olivier Sibony and Cass Sunstein, is "Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment."

Two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Why? This week on The Current, Olivier Sibony, Professor at HEC Paris, keynote speaker and co-author of NOISE: A Flaw in Human Judgement talks about the detrimental effects of noise in fields and systems, the difference between noise and bias, how noise influenced Harry Potter and more.  

Tim Kachuriak is the founder and Chief Innovation and Optimization Officer for NextAfter https://www.nextafter.com/, a fundraising research lab and consulting firm that works with businesses, nonprofits, and NGOs to help them grow their resource capacity. By his own admission, Tim is not a behavioral scientist, but what we love about Tim’s work is that he is using knowledge and research from the world of behavioral science and applying it to improve the efficiency of gift giving for nonprofit organizations. And not only does he use behavioral science techniques, he tests the theories in the nonprofit sector and generously publishes the findings on the NextAfter website https://www.nextafter.com/research/.  In our conversation with Tim, he underscores the need for thinking about value proposition, a term widely used in the digital marketing world, but rarely thought of in terms of nonprofit organizations. He argues that potential donors are constantly weighing up the perceived value vs. the perceived cost of donating their money. Tim also brings up the idea of reducing friction for donors: how can the giving experience be improved to make donating money a more seamless transaction. And we couldn’t help but see the parallels with the infamous new behavioral science book NOISE coming out later this month (Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment by Kahneman, Sibony and Sunstein, 2021 https://amzn.to/3heyr5r). There are many reasons why we donate to nonprofits; emotional reward, belonging, anger, guilt (or as Tim positively reframes it - gratitude!). Understanding these motivations is a huge part of Tim’s work and why, as behavioral scientists, we are fascinated to understand the research he has conducted around donations.  We hope you enjoy our discussion with Tim Kachuriak and if you are a regular Behavioral Grooves listener, perhaps you feel motivated to donate to our work by becoming a Behavioral Grooves Patreon Member at https://www.patreon.com/behavioralgrooves. © 2021 Behavioral Grooves Topics (0:06) Introduction to our guest, Tim Kachuriak (3:50) Speed Round Questions (5:57) Why do People Give? (9:41) The Principle of Reciprocity (12:10) Effective Messaging and Value Proposition  (22:25) Reducing Friction (34:48) Music (40:27) Grooving Session (58:44) Bonus Track Links NextAfter https://www.nextafter.com/  NextAfter Research To Grow Generosity https://www.nextafter.com/research/  Institute for Sustainable Philanthropy https://www.philanthropy-institute.org.uk/  Roger Dooley: Friction and Engagement https://behavioralgrooves.com/episode/roger-dooley-friction-and-engagement/ Susan G. Komen https://www.komen.org/  Dan Pallotta, TED - The Way We Think About Charity Is Dead Wrong https://www.ted.com/talks/dan_pallotta_the_way_we_think_about_charity_is_dead_wrong?language=en  John Hopkins University, Coronavirus Resource Centre https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/  Rotary Club https://www.rotary.org/  Salvation Army https://www.salvationarmyusa.org/usn/  Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment (Kahneman, Sibony and Sunstein, 2021) https://amzn.to/3heyr5r Phish, Boardwalk Hall, Atlantic City (10.30.2010)  https://phish.net/setlists/phish-october-30-2010-boardwalk-hall-atlantic-city-nj-usa.html  Behavioral Grooves Patreon https://www.patreon.com/behavioralgrooves Musical Links Billy Joel “Scenes from An Italian Restaurant” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hxx8IWIvKg0  Phish “Whole lotta love” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x6XcIOGWUhY  Other Episodes We Talk About Robert Cialdini, PhD: Littering, Egoism and Aretha Franklin https://behavioralgrooves.com/episode/robert-cialdini-phd-littering-egoism-and-aretha-franklin/  Linda Thunstrom: Are Thoughts and Prayers Empty Gestures to Suffering Disaster Victims? https://behavioralgrooves.com/episode/linda-thunstrom-are-thoughts-and-prayers-empty-gestures-to-suffering-disaster-victims/

The classic economic theory embedded in western democracies holds an assumption that human beings will almost always behave rationally in the end and make logical choices that will keep our society balanced on the whole. Daniel Kahneman is the psychologist who won the Nobel Prize in Economics for showing that this is simply not true. There’s something sobering — but also helpfully grounding — in speaking with this brilliant and humane scholar who explains why none of us is an equation that computes. As surely as we breathe, we will contradict ourselves and confound each other.Daniel Kahneman received the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2002. He’s best known for his book, Thinking, Fast and Slow and is now releasing a new book, Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment, written with Olivier Sibony and Cass R. Sunstein. He’s the Eugene Higgins Professor of Psychology Emeritus at Princeton University, Professor of Psychology and Public Affairs Emeritus at the Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, and a fellow of the Center for Rationality at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem.This interview is edited and produced with music and other features in the On Being episode "Daniel Kahneman — Why We Contradict Ourselves and Confound Each Other." Find the transcript for that show at onbeing.org. 

The classic economic theory embedded in western democracies holds an assumption that human beings will almost always behave rationally in the end and make logical choices that will keep our society balanced on the whole. Daniel Kahneman is the psychologist who won the Nobel Prize in Economics for showing that this is simply not true. There’s something sobering — but also helpfully grounding — in speaking with this brilliant and humane scholar who explains why none of us is an equation that computes. As surely as we breathe, we will contradict ourselves and confound each other.Daniel Kahneman received the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2002. He’s best known for his book, Thinking, Fast and Slow and is now releasing a new book, Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment, written with Olivier Sibony and Cass R. Sunstein. He’s the Eugene Higgins Professor of Psychology Emeritus at Princeton University, Professor of Psychology and Public Affairs Emeritus at the Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, and a fellow of the Center for Rationality at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem.Find the transcript for this show at onbeing.org.This show originally aired on October 5, 2017.