Podcasts about Hindsight bias

It's easy to think you saw something coming when you look back on it...but does that mean you really could have predicted it? Want to test yourself on how well you can recognize fallacies in real life? Take the Meme Fallacy Quiz! www.filteritthroughabraincell.com/quiz Learn more about Crazy Thinkers membership where you can practice critical thinking using real-life memes, articles & headlines: www.filteritthroughabraincell.com/crazy Here's how you can purchase the Logical Fallacies ebook: https://www.filteritthroughabraincell.com/offers/z6xbAcB2 Send me any questions, comments or even the fallacies you're seeing around you! think@filteritthroughabraincell.com Or, tag me on Instagram: @filteritthroughabraincell Sign up on my email list at: www.filteritthroughabraincell.com/contact Learn more about Summit Student Conferences: www.summit.org/braincell and use code BRAINCELL25 to get $200 off! Learn more about Classical Conversations: www.classicalconversations.com/filterit Thank you to our sponsor, CTC Math! Website: https://www.ctcmath.com/?tr_id=brain Homeschool page: https://www.ctcmath.com/how-it-works/home-school?tr_id=brain Free trail: https://www.ctcmath.com/trial?tr_id=brain Special offer! Get 1/2-off discounts plus bonus 6-months free! https://www.ctcmath.com/purchase/homeschool50?tr_id=BRAIN

Ever made a bad call and let it shape every decision after that? That's hindsight bias in action.Hindsight bias limits learning because it convinces us that one past mistake defines future outcomes. One bad hire, one failed project, one wrong move—and suddenly, we're hesitant to take new risks. Worse yet, some leaders apply this thinking to their teams, defining individuals by a single moment in time instead of evaluating their entire body of work.Real leadership means stepping back and seeing the big picture. If someone gets it right 75–80% of the time, that's a valuable asset to your organization. If you're in a company that defines you by your worst moments rather than your full contribution, it might be time to move on.Great leaders allow mistakes, encourage growth, and judge by long-term impact—not single missteps. Are you leading that way?

How to Decide Podcast Summary | Master the Art of Decision-MakingEver felt stuck making a tough choice or unsure if you're overthinking it? In this episode, we explore How to Decide by Annie Duke—a practical guide to transforming your decision-making process. Packed with actionable insights, this podcast takes you step by step through strategies that will make your decisions sharper, more confident, and better aligned with your goals.

In this episode of The Brainy Business podcast, Melina Palmer dives into the fascinating world of personal biases, exploring how our brains are wired to perceive ourselves and the world around us. This episode, originally aired in April 2019, provides a rapid-fire overview of various biases that impact our personal and professional lives. Melina discusses optimism bias, planning fallacy, naive realism, false consensus effect, and more, offering insights into how these biases shape our decisions and interactions. Through practical examples and relatable anecdotes, Melina helps listeners understand the complexities of their own biases and how to leverage this knowledge for better decision-making and improved interactions with others. Listeners will gain valuable insights into the importance of recognizing and addressing personal biases, and how doing so can lead to greater success in both personal and professional contexts. This episode serves as a comprehensive guide to understanding the hidden forces that influence our thoughts and actions, making it a must-listen for anyone looking to enhance their self-awareness and communication skills. In this episode: Identify and understand various personal biases and their impact on decision-making and interactions. Leverage knowledge of biases like optimism bias and planning fallacy to set realistic goals and expectations. Improve communication and collaboration by recognizing and addressing biases such as naive realism and false consensus effect. Utilize insights from biases to enhance marketing strategies and customer interactions. Foster better relationships and teamwork by acknowledging and mitigating the influence of biases like egocentric bias and social comparison bias. Show Notes: 00:00:00 - Introduction Melina introduces the topic of personal biases and sets the stage for a deep dive into how these biases affect our lives and careers. 00:02:00 - Optimism Bias Discussion on optimism bias and how it leads people to believe they are more likely to experience positive outcomes than others. 00:04:00 - Planning Fallacy Exploration of planning fallacy, the tendency to underestimate how long tasks will take, and its implications in personal and professional settings. 00:06:00 - Naive Realism Melina explains naive realism, the belief that we see the world objectively while others are biased, and its impact on communication and collaboration. 00:08:00 - False Consensus Effect Examination of the false consensus effect, where people overestimate how much others agree with them, and strategies to overcome it. 00:10:00 - Illusion of Asymmetric Insight Discussion on the illusion of asymmetric insight, where individuals believe they understand others better than others understand them. 00:12:00 - Illusion of Transparency Melina explores the illusion of transparency, where people overestimate how well they understand others and are understood in return. 00:14:00 - False Uniqueness Bias Analysis of false uniqueness bias, where individuals believe their experiences and problems are unique compared to others. 00:16:00 - Forer Effect Introduction to the Forer effect, also known as the Barnum effect, where people believe vague, general statements are highly accurate for them. 00:18:00 - Illusion of Control Discussion on the illusion of control, the tendency to overestimate one's influence over external events, and its impact on behavior and decision-making. 00:20:00 - Egocentric Bias Exploration of egocentric bias, where individuals believe they do more work than others, and strategies for overcoming it. 00:22:00 - Social Comparison Bias Examination of social comparison bias, where individuals favor candidates who are not in direct competition with their own strengths. 00:24:00 - Spotlight Effect Discussion on the spotlight effect, where people overestimate how much others notice their appearance or behavior. 00:26:00 - Overconfidence Effect Melina explains the overconfidence effect, where people are more certain in their answers than they should be, and its implications in business. 00:28:00 - Pro Innovation Bias Analysis of pro innovation bias, where individuals have excessive optimism about their innovations or products. 00:30:00 - Hindsight Bias and Post Purchase Rationalization Discussion on hindsight bias and post-purchase rationalization, where individuals justify their decisions after the fact. 00:32:00 - Choice Supportive Bias and Illusion of External Agency Examination of choice supportive bias and illusion of external agency, where people believe their choices were more informed than they were. 00:34:00 - Illusion of Validity and Conservatism Belief Revision Melina explores the illusion of validity and conservatism belief revision, where individuals stick to their beliefs despite new evidence. 00:36:00 - Continued Influence Effect Discussion on the continued influence effect, where people continue to believe misinformation even after it has been corrected. 00:38:00 - Conclusion What stuck with you while listening to the episode? What are you going to try? Come share it with Melina on social media -- you'll find her as @thebrainybiz everywhere and as Melina Palmer on LinkedIn. Thanks for listening. Don't forget to subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Android. If you like what you heard, please leave a review on iTunes and share what you liked about the show.  I hope you love everything recommended via The Brainy Business! Everything was independently reviewed and selected by me, Melina Palmer. So you know, as an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. That means if you decide to shop from the links on this page (via Amazon or others), The Brainy Business may collect a share of sales or other compensation. Let's connect: Melina@TheBrainyBusiness.com The Brainy Business® on Facebook The Brainy Business on Twitter The Brainy Business on Instagram The Brainy Business on LinkedIn Melina on LinkedIn The Brainy Business on Youtube Learn and Support The Brainy Business: Check out and get your copies of Melina's Books.  Get the Books Mentioned on (or related to) this Episode: Happier Hour, by Cassie Holmes You Have More Influence Than You Think, by Vanessa Bohns What Your Employees Need and Can't Tell You (ep 225) Mentoring, by Dr. Ruth Gotian and Andy Lopata The Success Factor, by Ruth Gotian Top Recommended Next Episode: Planning Fallacy (ep 346) Already Heard That One? Try These:  Optimism Bias (ep 34) What Your Employees Need and Can't Tell You (ep 225) Biases Toward Others (Including Groups) (ep 314) Vanessa Bohns Interview (ep 318) Hindsight Bias (ep 396) Other Important Links:  Brainy Bites - Melina's LinkedIn Newsletter Exploring the “Planning Fallacy”: Why People Underestimate Their Task Completion Times Five Most Daunting NFL Stadiums for Visiting Teams Scarlett Johansson & Brie Larson Play ‘Who Saves the World? Girls!' The Trouble With Overconfidence

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Today's podcast begins a dedicated set of episodes to Daniel Kahneman, one of my intellectual heroes who recently passed away. His work has been extremely formative for me in my understanding of what it means to be human and all of our biases. One of those biases is the hindsight bias, which I take some time to discuss here. I hope you find this to be insightful. Thanks for listening. As always, Much Love ❤️ and please take care. --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/matt-best/support

Episode 131I spoke with Professor Kevin Dorst about:* Subjective Bayesianism and epistemology foundations* What happens when you're uncertain about your evidence* Why it's rational for people to polarize on political mattersEnjoy—and let me know what you think!Kevin is an Associate Professor in the Department of Linguistics and Philosophy at MIT. He works at the border between philosophy and social science, focusing on rationality.Find me on Twitter for updates on new episodes, and reach me at editor@thegradient.pub for feedback, ideas, guest suggestions. I spend a lot of time on this podcast—if you like my work, you can support me on Patreon :) You can also support upkeep for the full Gradient team/project through a paid subscription on Substack!Subscribe to The Gradient Podcast:  Apple Podcasts  | Spotify | Pocket Casts | RSSFollow The Gradient on TwitterOutline:* (00:00) Intro* (01:15) When do Bayesians need theorems?* (05:52) Foundations of epistemology, metaethics, formal models, error theory* (09:35) Extreme views and error theory, arguing for/against opposing positions* (13:35) Changing focuses in philosophy — pragmatic pressures* (19:00) Kevin's goals through his research and work* (25:10) Structural factors in coming to certain (political) beliefs* (30:30) Acknowledging limited resources, heuristics, imperfect rationality* (32:51) Hindsight Bias is Not a Bias* (33:30) The argument* (35:15) On eating cereal and symmetric properties of evidence* (39:45) Colloquial notions of hindsight bias, time and evidential support* (42:45) An example* (48:02) Higher-order uncertainty* (48:30) Explicitly modeling higher-order uncertainty* (52:50) Another example (spoons)* (54:55) Game theory, iterated knowledge, even higher order uncertainty* (58:00) Uncertainty and philosophy of mind* (1:01:20) Higher-order evidence about reliability and rationality* (1:06:45) Being Rational and Being Wrong* (1:09:00) Setup on calibration and overconfidence* (1:12:30) The need for average rational credence — normative judgments about confidence and realism/anti-realism* (1:15:25) Quasi-realism about average rational credence?* (1:19:00) Classic epistemological paradoxes/problems — lottery paradox, epistemic luck* (1:25:05) Deference in rational belief formation, uniqueness and permissivism* (1:39:50) Rational Polarization* (1:40:00) Setup* (1:37:05) Epistemic nihilism, expanded confidence akrasia* (1:40:55) Ambiguous evidence and confidence akrasia* (1:46:25) Ambiguity in understanding and notions of rational belief* (1:50:00) Claims about rational sensitivity — what stories we can tell given evidence* (1:54:00) Evidence vs presentation of evidence* (2:01:20) ChatGPT and the case for human irrationality* (2:02:00) Is ChatGPT replicating human biases?* (2:05:15) Simple instruction tuning and an alternate story* (2:10:22) Kevin's aspirations with his work* (2:15:13) OutroLinks:* Professor Dorst's homepage and Twitter* Papers* Modest Epistemology* Hedden: Hindsight bias is not a bias* Higher-order evidence + (Almost) all evidence is higher-order evidence* Being Rational and Being Wrong* Rational Polarization* ChatGPT and human irrationality Get full access to The Gradient at thegradientpub.substack.com/subscribe

This episode is the sixth in an eight-part series on Unlocking the Psychology of Customer Experience. Here, we explore the psychology we have regarding how human beings deal with predicting unpredictable outcomes. The discussion focuses on biases that influence how people perceive and assess probability and risk, impacting their judgment and decision-making processes.   We begin with a common bias in these situations, the Gambler's Fallacy. In this scenario,  individuals predict future random outcomes based on past results. It feels logical but isn't and often results in poor decision-making.    For example, casinos will often put the results of the past few Roulette rolls to give patrons a history of what has happened with the wheel. Some gamblers might use this history to predict what is likely to happen next.    However, the marble doesn't have a memory of what just happened or any control over what happens next. The next roll will be as random as the last roll. The history of the Roulette wheel is meaningless; it only serves the casino by exploiting patrons' inability to realize the random nature of the spin and taking their money.  Another bias we discuss is the Hot Hand Fallacy, which influences people to believe that a streak of success in sports or other areas is sustainable despite statistical evidence.    The Gambler's Fallacy and the Hot Hand Fallacy are not any more logical or rational than one another. The Hot Hand Fallacy differs because, at least, an athlete's performance or a business outcome isn't random. However, it isn't any more likely to be right.    We also examine the Overconfidence Bias, which reveals how individuals tend to be overly confident in predicting outcomes, leading to misguided decisions. The Dunning-Kruger effect, a related phenomenon, highlights how individuals with limited knowledge of a topic may underestimate their competence.    Colin is guilty of this regarding his ability and drive to learn about his SLR camera's more nuanced settings. He opts for the automatic settings instead.   Moreover, the Endowment Effect is discussed, illustrating how people overvalue items they perceive as their own, influencing their willingness to part with them. The Hindsight Bias is also explored, revealing how people tend to believe that past events were more predictable than they were.   In this episode, you will also learn the following:   The importance of ongoing learning and adaptation in navigating the complexities of human decision-making. The implications of these biases for customer experience design and decision-making in business. Strategies for mitigating the impact of cognitive biases on judgment and decision-making. Real-world examples of how these biases manifest in various contexts, such as investing, sports, and customer interactions. The role of awareness and education in addressing biases and improving decision-making processes. Practical steps for incorporating insights from behavioral economics into experience design and business strategy.  

This episode is the sixth in an eight-part series on Unlocking the Psychology of Customer Experience. Here, we explore the psychology we have regarding how human beings deal with predicting unpredictable outcomes. The discussion focuses on biases that influence how people perceive and assess probability and risk, impacting their judgment and decision-making processes.   We begin with a common bias in these situations, the Gambler's Fallacy. In this scenario,  individuals predict future random outcomes based on past results. It feels logical but isn't and often results in poor decision-making.    For example, casinos will often put the results of the past few Roulette rolls to give patrons a history of what has happened with the wheel. Some gamblers might use this history to predict what is likely to happen next.    However, the marble doesn't have a memory of what just happened or any control over what happens next. The next roll will be as random as the last roll. The history of the Roulette wheel is meaningless; it only serves the casino by exploiting patrons' inability to realize the random nature of the spin and taking their money.  Another bias we discuss is the Hot Hand Fallacy, which influences people to believe that a streak of success in sports or other areas is sustainable despite statistical evidence.    The Gambler's Fallacy and the Hot Hand Fallacy are not any more logical or rational than one another. The Hot Hand Fallacy differs because, at least, an athlete's performance or a business outcome isn't random. However, it isn't any more likely to be right.    We also examine the Overconfidence Bias, which reveals how individuals tend to be overly confident in predicting outcomes, leading to misguided decisions. The Dunning-Kruger effect, a related phenomenon, highlights how individuals with limited knowledge of a topic may underestimate their competence.    Colin is guilty of this regarding his ability and drive to learn about his SLR camera's more nuanced settings. He opts for the automatic settings instead.   Moreover, the Endowment Effect is discussed, illustrating how people overvalue items they perceive as their own, influencing their willingness to part with them. The Hindsight Bias is also explored, revealing how people tend to believe that past events were more predictable than they were.   In this episode, you will also learn the following:   The importance of ongoing learning and adaptation in navigating the complexities of human decision-making. The implications of these biases for customer experience design and decision-making in business. Strategies for mitigating the impact of cognitive biases on judgment and decision-making. Real-world examples of how these biases manifest in various contexts, such as investing, sports, and customer interactions. The role of awareness and education in addressing biases and improving decision-making processes. Practical steps for incorporating insights from behavioral economics into experience design and business strategy.  

On this episode of The Brainy Business podcast, host Melina Palmer welcomes Dr. Dan Simons and Dr. Christopher Chabris, the renowned authors behind the bestseller The Invisible Gorilla. They dive deep into their groundbreaking research on inattentional blindness and how everyday cognitive habits can render us vulnerable to deception. Through engaging stories and revelatory insights, the duo discusses the dark side of our mental shortcuts and how scammers exploit them in art frauds, financial scams, and beyond.  With a focus on their new book, Nobody's Fool, they offer strategies to recognize and resist deceptive tactics that prey on precision, familiarity, and efficiency in our thinking. Prepare to uncover the invisible gorillas in your life and sharpen your mental defenses against frauds. Tune in to rethink how you perceive reality and protect yourself from being misled. In this episode: Recognize the Impact of Inattentional Blindness on Decision-Making Employ Strategies to Avoid Deception in Business Apply Cognitive Psychology to Improve Marketing Efforts Understand the Psychology Behind Consumer Purchasing Behavior Show Notes: 00:00:00 - Introduction The episode begins with the introduction of the guests, Dr. Dan Simons and Dr. Christopher Chabris. They discuss their collaboration and the unexpected viral success of the study, which led to further research and applications in various fields. 00:04:08 - The Mismatch Between Perception and Intuition Dan and Christopher delve into the significance of The Invisible Gorilla, emphasizing the mismatch between what people actually notice and what they think they will notice. This mismatch highlights the limitations of human intuition and has broad implications for decision-making and behavior. 00:09:21 - Inattentional Blindness and Focus The guests explain that the failure to notice the gorilla is a consequence of our ability to focus attention and ignore distractions. They discuss how this phenomenon extends beyond visual attention and can lead to dangerous or problematic behaviors due to people's reliance on intuitive understanding. 00:11:21 - Unintended Consequences and Viral Impact Dan and Christopher reflect on the unexpected viral impact of their study and the idiosyncratic elements that captured people's imaginations. They acknowledge the role of luck and timing in the study's success and share their continued fondness for the gorilla-related work. 00:14:05 - Inattentional Blindness in Medical Contexts Dan and Christopher discuss the limited research on inattentional blindness in medical contexts, using controlled computer-based displays to understand the mechanism of noticing unexpected things. 00:15:26 - Can You Tell If Someone Is Watching You? Dan and Christopher talk about the common belief that people can tell if someone is watching them, despite the lack of evidence for it. They highlight how experiences can mislead us in forming intuitions. 00:16:43 - Misleading Experiences and Intuitions They discuss how experiences can mislead us, using the example of someone catching another person staring at them. They explain how remarkable events stick in our memory, leading to spurious relationships. 00:20:07 - Deception and Attention The conversation delves into how deception takes advantage of our cognitive tendencies, especially our ability to focus on what we care about. They emphasize the importance of asking good questions and seeking complete answers to avoid being deceived. 00:25:24 - Efficiency and Deception Dan and Christopher highlight how our efficiency in processing information can lead to oversight, emphasizing the need to slow down and critically evaluate the information presented. They discuss the importance of questioning and examining jargon and impressive-sounding claims. 00:27:05 - Efficiency and Decision Making The efficiency of our mental habits can sometimes hinder good decision making. While most of the time our cognitive tendencies work well, there are instances, such as driving at high speeds, where a slight delay in noticing something can be catastrophic. 00:29:13 - Cognitive Habits and Decision Making Dan and Christopher discuss the four cognitive habits that impact decision making: focusing, prediction, commitment, and efficiency. These mental habits are efficient and effective, but can lead to vulnerabilities when making important decisions. 00:32:43 - Scams and Cognitive Principles Many grand cons and scams rely on cognitive habits such as focusing, prediction, commitment, and efficiency. These scams take advantage of how our minds work, giving people what they expect and counting on them not to question critically. 00:33:08 - Information Hooks and Decision Making The conversation delves into the four information hooks that appeal to us and impact decision making: consistency, familiarity, precision, and potency. These hooks often lead us to trust information without questioning it as much as we should. 00:37:34 - Importance of Questioning Information Dan and Christopher emphasize the importance of questioning information and seeking more evidence before making decisions. They discuss the appeal of precise numbers, familiarity with sources, and the allure of quick-fix solutions. 00:40:28 - The Power of Deceptive Marketing Dan and Christopher discuss the appeal of deceptive marketing strategies, such as crypto advertising, which rely on familiarity, urgency, and the promise of quick financial gains. They highlight the rarity of giant benefits and caution against assuming the truth of such promotions. 00:41:52 - The Trojan Horse Scam The conversation touches on the concept of the trojan horse scam, emphasizing that while new variants of scams continue to evolve, they all rely on similar cognitive habits to deceive people. The hosts discuss the underlying principles of deceptive practices and the historical significance of the trojan horse scam. 00:43:17 - Uncovering Easter Eggs Dan hints at an Easter egg hidden in the book, prompting listeners to look for the trojan horse-shaped Easter egg within its pages. He encourages engagement by inviting people to connect with him on social media and explore his website for additional resources and information related to the book. 00:44:30 - Conclusion, What stuck with you while listening to the episode? What are you going to try? Come share it with Melina on social media -- you'll find her as @thebrainybiz everywhere and as Melina Palmer on LinkedIn. Thanks for listening. Don't forget to subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Android. If you like what you heard, please leave a review on iTunes and share what you liked about the show.  I hope you love everything recommended via The Brainy Business! Everything was independently reviewed and selected by me, Melina Palmer. So you know, as an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. That means if you decide to shop from the links on this page (via Amazon or others), The Brainy Business may collect a share of sales or other compensation. Let's connect: Melina@TheBrainyBusiness.com The Brainy Business® on Facebook The Brainy Business on Twitter The Brainy Business on Instagram The Brainy Business on LinkedIn Melina on LinkedIn The Brainy Business on Youtube Connect with Dan and Christopher: Nobody's Fool Website Dan on LinkedIn Chris on LinkedIn Learn and Support The Brainy Business: Check out and get your copies of Melina's Books.  Get the Books Mentioned on (or related to) this Episode: Look Again, by Cass Sunstein and Tali Sharot Nobody's Fool, by Christopher Chabris and Daniel Simons You Have More Influence Than You Think, by Vanessa Bohns A More Beautiful Question, by Warren Berger The Invisible Gorilla, by Christopher Chabris and Daniel Simons Top Recommended Next Episode: Jonah Berger Interview (ep 301) Already Heard That One? Try These:  Survivorship Bias (ep 110) Hindsight Bias (ep 167) Vanessa Bohns Interview (ep 318) Focusing Illusion (ep 330) Warren Berger Interview (ep 340) Other Important Links:  Brainy Bites - Melina's LinkedIn Newsletter

In this episode of The Brainy Business podcast, host Melina Palmer welcomes Jeff Kreisler, Head of Behavioral Science at JPMorgan Chase and celebrated author. Dive into Jeff's fascinating journey from lawyer and stand-up comedian to a leading expert in behavioral science, discovering along the way how humor intertwines with our decision-making processes. Jeff shares insightful anecdotes and explains the significant impact of behavioral economics in both personal and professional realms, especially in wealth management at JPMorgan Chase.  The discussion explores the evolving role of AI in decision-making, emphasizing ethics and biases, and highlights the necessity of diverse perspectives and adapting to new challenges in large organizations. Jeff's unique blend of wit and wisdom illuminates the peculiarities of human behavior and the potential of behavioral science to enhance financial decision-making and reduce stress. This episode is a must-listen for anyone intrigued by the intersection of psychology, economics, and the transformative power of humor within the business world. In this episode: Understand the impact of behavioral science on financial decision-making for improved strategies. Explore Jeff Kreisler's successful career transition to behavioral science and its relevance in finance. Discover the power of incorporating humor in behavioral economics to enhance financial outcomes. Harness the role of AI in revolutionizing and enhancing financial services for better client engagement. Learn the key steps to build a successful career in behavioral economics and its impact on financial decision-making. Show Notes: 00:00:00 - Introduction, Jeff Kreisler shares his unconventional journey from studying economics and law to becoming a stand-up comedian and eventually the head of behavioral science at JPMorgan Chase. 00:05:22 - Discovering Behavioral Science Jeff discusses how he stumbled upon behavioral science through a business humor column and his collaboration with Dan Ariely, which led to a deeper understanding of human decision-making. 00:07:50 - Applying Behavioral Science Jeff talks about his experience working on popular books and projects with Dan Ariely, as well as his role at PeopleScience, where he bridged the gap between behavioral science and real-world applications in various industries. 00:10:38 - Career Insights and Opportunities Jeff reflects on the importance of staying open to opportunities, being honest with oneself, and the role of privilege in taking career risks. He emphasizes the value of keeping a flexible mindset in today's ever-changing economy. 00:13:42 - Coping with the Unknowns of the World Jeff discusses the idea of coping with the unknowable aspects of the world and the mindset of irrationality in human behavior. He shares a personal anecdote about learning to laugh at mistakes and the unique experience of being alive. 00:14:50 - Observing Human Behavior Jeff talks about the mindset of behavioral scientists and the importance of observing and testing people's behavior. He emphasizes the significance of small, seemingly insignificant changes that can have a massive impact on human behavior. 00:16:14 - Spontaneity in Public Speaking The conversation touches on the spontaneity in public speaking and the challenge of maintaining spontaneity while using a script. Jeff humorously reflects on his experiences in comedy and public speaking. 00:18:17 - Mental Accounting and Decision Making Jeff discusses the concept of mental accounting and how it influences decision making. He highlights the emotional and irrational aspects of decision making, using the example of pricing and relativity in consumer behavior. 00:24:27 - Impact of Behavioral Science in Finance Jeff shares his motivation for joining JP Morgan Chase and the potential impact of behavioral science in improving financial decision making for American families. He emphasizes the importance of communication and the value of leaning into one's strengths in a professional role. 00:27:07 - Career in the Financial Sector Jeff discusses how he transitioned from working in show business to the financial sector and shares his experiences of stereotypes in the banking world. 00:29:11 - Application of Behavioral Science Jeff talks about how he utilized behavioral science in his role at JP Morgan, focusing on client engagement, advisor empowerment, and financial innovation. 00:31:23 - Perspective on AI and Behavioral Science Jeff shares his insights on the intersection of AI, data, and behavioral science, emphasizing the importance of AI as a tool rather than a dispositive decision maker. 00:32:45 - Adoption of Behavioral Science Jeff discusses the challenges of introducing behavioral science in a large organization and highlights the value it adds in various contexts. 00:38:41 - Optimism for Behavioral Science Jeff emphasizes the significance of maintaining optimism for the field of behavioral science and the value it brings to individuals, organizations, and governments. He also shares his contact information for those interested in connecting with him. 00:40:59 - The Kindness of the Behavioral Science Community The field of behavioral science is filled with kind and generous people who are willing to help others. Whether virtually or through social media, the community is inviting and supportive, providing thoughtful responses to those who seek help. 00:41:43 - Conclusion What stuck with you while listening to the episode? What are you going to try? Come share it with Melina on social media -- you'll find her as @thebrainybiz everywhere and as Melina Palmer on LinkedIn. Thanks for listening. Don't forget to subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Android. If you like what you heard, please leave a review on iTunes and share what you liked about the show.  I hope you love everything recommended via The Brainy Business! Everything was independently reviewed and selected by me, Melina Palmer. So you know, as an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. That means if you decide to shop from the links on this page (via Amazon or others), The Brainy Business may collect a share of sales or other compensation. Let's connect: Melina@TheBrainyBusiness.com The Brainy Business® on Facebook The Brainy Business on Twitter The Brainy Business on Instagram The Brainy Business on LinkedIn Melina on LinkedIn The Brainy Business on Youtube Connect with Jeff: Jeff's site LinkedIn X Learn and Support The Brainy Business: Check out and get your copies of Melina's Books.  Get the Books Mentioned on (or related to) this Episode: Dollars and Sense, by Dan Ariely and Jeff Kreisler Get Rich Cheating, by Jeff Kreisler Predictably Irrational, by Dan Ariely Engaged, by Amy Bucher Behavioural Investing, by James Montier Top Recommended Next Episode: Daniel Crosby Interview (ep 212) Already Heard That One? Try These:  Relativity (ep 12) Dan Ariely Interview (ep 101) Hindsight Bias (ep 167) Chuck Howard Interview (ep 213) Framing (ep 296) Other Important Links:  Brainy Bites - Melina's LinkedIn Newsletter

In Episode 396 of The Brainy Business podcast, host Melina Palmer explores the intriguing world of memory reliability and the common misconceptions that alter our perception of past events. Melina delves into how our brains often mislead us into thinking we understood or predicted outcomes that were, in fact, unforeseeable. With insights into cognitive biases like leveling, sharpening, and survivorship bias, this episode uncovers how these mental processes distort our understanding of reality and influence business and personal decisions.  Drawing from vivid examples and thoughtful analysis, Melina offers practical strategies to combat hindsight bias and enhance decision-making clarity. Whether you're reflecting on past business strategies or personal experiences, this episode provides valuable lessons on the importance of questioning our instincts and memories. Tune in to learn how to navigate your reflections with greater accuracy and less bias, preparing you for better outcomes in future endeavors.  In this episode: Gain insights into the impact of hindsight bias on decision-making and how to mitigate its effects. Understand the influence of memories on business choices and learn strategies to harness this influence for better decision-making. Explore the hidden dangers of survivorship bias and its implications for strategic planning, along with methods to counteract its effects. Acquire effective techniques to combat hindsight bias and enhance the quality of decision-making processes. Discover the critical importance of pre-mortem analysis in decision-making and how it can revolutionize strategic planning. Show Notes: 00:00:00 - Introduction Melina welcomes listeners to the Brainy Business podcast and introduces the topic of hindsight bias, reflecting on past decisions and events with a biased perspective. 00:03:08 - The Nature of Memories Melina discusses the inaccuracy of memories, how they can be distorted over time, and the impact of biases like leveling and sharpening on memory recollection. 00:05:03 - Survivorship Bias The concept of survivorship bias is explained through the story of planes in World War Two, highlighting the importance of considering missing data and the potential impact on decision-making. 00:07:53 - Overconfidence and Cognitive Dissonance Melina delves into the overconfidence that arises from hindsight bias, how people often claim to have known outcomes all along, and the role of cognitive dissonance in justifying past beliefs. 00:12:59 - Tips for Combating Hindsight Bias Melina provides three practical tips for combating hindsight bias, including being comfortable admitting surprise, taking notes beforehand, and considering alternative outcomes when reviewing past events. 00:15:44 - Overcoming Hindsight Bias Melina discusses the importance of doing thorough analysis before making decisions and the value of admitting when you don't know the answer. 00:16:58 - Taking Notes and Evaluating Decisions Melina emphasizes the importance of writing down suspicions or ideas before making a decision, as well as evaluating the decision-making process in a post-mortem. 00:17:40 - Reviewing What Happened and Considering Other Outcomes Melina encourages thinking through alternative outcomes and considering the possibility of missing information when reviewing past decisions. 00:18:44 - Avoiding Overconfidence and Generalization Melina advises against putting too much weight on finding the exact answer and using it as a general rule for future decisions. Context matters and overconfidence can be detrimental. 00:20:27 - Conclusion What stuck with you while listening to the episode? What are you going to try? Come share it with Melina on social media -- you'll find her as @thebrainybiz everywhere and as Melina Palmer on LinkedIn. Thanks for listening. Don't forget to subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Android. If you like what you heard, please leave a review on iTunes and share what you liked about the show.  I hope you love everything recommended via The Brainy Business! Everything was independently reviewed and selected by me, Melina Palmer. So you know, as an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. That means if you decide to shop from the links on this page (via Amazon or others), The Brainy Business may collect a share of sales or other compensation. Let's connect: Melina@TheBrainyBusiness.com The Brainy Business® on Facebook The Brainy Business on Twitter The Brainy Business on Instagram The Brainy Business on LinkedIn Melina on LinkedIn The Brainy Business on Youtube Learn and Support The Brainy Business: Check out and get your copies of Melina's Books.  Get the Books Mentioned on (or related to) this Episode: Engaged, by Amy Bucher Dollars and Sense, by Dan Ariely and Jeff Kreisler Look Again, by Cass Sunstein and Tali Sharot Look, by Christian Madsbjerg How Minds Change, by David McRaney Top Recommended Next Episode: Amy Bucher Interview (ep 164) Already Heard That One? Try These:  Survivorship Bias (ep 110) Matthew Confer Interview (ep 158) Confirmation Bias (ep 260) Memory Biases (ep 280) Counterfactual Thinking (ep 286) Other Important Links:  Brainy Bites - Melina's LinkedIn Newsletter Hindsight Bias How Hindsight Bias Affects How We View the Past Why do we see unpredictable events as predictable after they occur? ‘I Knew It All Along…Didn't I?' – Understanding Hindsight Bias Hindsight Bias

rational vc Key Takeaways  People often underestimate the role of chance in their achievementsMild success can be explainable by skill, but wild success is attributable to variance In the long run, the “lucky” regress to the mean Understand Power Laws when investing; the wins of a few investments make up for the losses on many investments, and then some Survivorship Bias: the tendency to focus on successful individuals without considering those who failed due to random factors The probability of the loss must be judged in connection with the magnitude of the outcome; it is not the likelihood of an event that matters, but the magnitude of the outcome in connection with the likelihood of the event that does  Maximizing the probability of winning does not maximize the expected value from the game The confidence in which you make your decision is more important than the expected value that comes from that decision A mistake is not something to be determined after the fact, but in the light of the information until that point Read the full notes @ podcastnotes.orgEvery podcast episode we explore a Lindy book, and find ideas you can use in business and life. Join 3,000+ curious minds and avid readers @ rationalvc.com to get free access to essays and exclusive content. For the video version of episode click here.   Timestamps: (00:00) Intro / chit-chat (20:11) Randomness & Luck (24:46) Monte Carlo Simulation (31:09) Ergodicity (31:39) Hindsight Bias (38:00) Survivorship Bias (39:50) Asymmetric Bets / John & Nero (49:53) Skewness & Asymmetry (57:19) Pascal's Wager (1:00:53) Induction & Chaos Theory (1:03:22) Chapter 11 (1:08:45) System-1 vs System-2 Thinking (1:10:03) Satisficing (1:20:08) Normative vs Positive Thinking (1:25:52) Signal vs Noise (1:28:20) Heuristics (1:33:45) Final Part of Book (Part 3's Importance) (1:44:41) Favourite Quotes / Our Lives (2:06:11) Final Thoughts - Our website (all essays and podcasts): rationalvc.com  Our investment fund: rational.fund  Cyrus' Twitter: x.com/CyrusYari  Iman's Twitter: x.com/iman_olya -   Disclaimer: The materials provided are solely for informational or entertainment purposes and do not constitute investment or legal advice. All opinions expressed by hosts and guests are solely their own opinions and do not reflect the opinion of their employer(s). #Lindy #knowledge #books

rational vc Key Takeaways  People often underestimate the role of chance in their achievementsMild success can be explainable by skill, but wild success is attributable to variance In the long run, the “lucky” regress to the mean Understand Power Laws when investing; the wins of a few investments make up for the losses on many investments, and then some Survivorship Bias: the tendency to focus on successful individuals without considering those who failed due to random factors The probability of the loss must be judged in connection with the magnitude of the outcome; it is not the likelihood of an event that matters, but the magnitude of the outcome in connection with the likelihood of the event that does  Maximizing the probability of winning does not maximize the expected value from the game The confidence in which you make your decision is more important than the expected value that comes from that decision A mistake is not something to be determined after the fact, but in the light of the information until that point Read the full notes @ podcastnotes.orgEvery podcast episode we explore a Lindy book, and find ideas you can use in business and life. Join 3,000+ curious minds and avid readers @ rationalvc.com to get free access to essays and exclusive content. For the video version of episode click here.   Timestamps: (00:00) Intro / chit-chat (20:11) Randomness & Luck (24:46) Monte Carlo Simulation (31:09) Ergodicity (31:39) Hindsight Bias (38:00) Survivorship Bias (39:50) Asymmetric Bets / John & Nero (49:53) Skewness & Asymmetry (57:19) Pascal's Wager (1:00:53) Induction & Chaos Theory (1:03:22) Chapter 11 (1:08:45) System-1 vs System-2 Thinking (1:10:03) Satisficing (1:20:08) Normative vs Positive Thinking (1:25:52) Signal vs Noise (1:28:20) Heuristics (1:33:45) Final Part of Book (Part 3's Importance) (1:44:41) Favourite Quotes / Our Lives (2:06:11) Final Thoughts - Our website (all essays and podcasts): rationalvc.com  Our investment fund: rational.fund  Cyrus' Twitter: x.com/CyrusYari  Iman's Twitter: x.com/iman_olya -   Disclaimer: The materials provided are solely for informational or entertainment purposes and do not constitute investment or legal advice. All opinions expressed by hosts and guests are solely their own opinions and do not reflect the opinion of their employer(s). #Lindy #knowledge #books

Wenn es ums Geld anlegen geht, macht einem oft die Psyche einen Strich durch die Rechnung. Denn wir Menschen denken und handeln nach bestimmten Mustern, auch wenn wir uns dessen meist nicht bewusst sind. Fachleute sprechen dabei von sogenannten „kognitiven Verzerrungen“. Karl Matthäus Schmidt, Vorstandsvorsitzender der Quirin Privatbank AG und Gründer der digitalen Geldanlage quirion, erläutert in dieser Podcast-Folge einige Psychofallen, die bei der Geldanlage in die Irre führen können. Freuen Sie sich auf die Antworten folgender Fragen: • Hält sich Schmidt für einen Börsenpsychologen? (1:11) • Ist Geldanlage mehr Kopfsache und weniger Finanzhandwerk? (1:48) • Was sind die grundlegenden Prinzipien des menschlichen Denkens? Was ist der Unterschied zwischen dem reflektierten und intuitiven System? (3:04) • Warum sollte man Emotionen beim Investieren außen vor lassen? (4:52) • Wenn man an der Börse aussteigt, können Verluste vermieden werden. Wieso sind solche überstürzten Verkäufe das Schlechteste, was man machen kann? (6:00) • Was sind die wichtigsten psychologischen Fallstricke bei einer Geldanlage? (7:19) • Was hat es mit dem Rückschaufehler auf sich? (8:07) • Wie kann man den Ankereffekt bei Aktien idealerweise umgehen? (9:26) • Warum können Erfolge trügerisch sein? (11:00) • Warum sind zwanghafte Vergleiche problematisch? (12:44) • Was ist mit der Neigung zum Naheliegenden gemeint und inwiefern ist das kritisch? (14:27) • Wie kann man emotionale Entscheidungen beim Geldanlegen vermeiden? Wie ist der CEO selbst zu einem besseren Investor geworden? (15:52) • Was ist Schmidts Buchtipp zu diesem Thema? (17:04) Der Panikeffekt ist ein typisches Beispiel der psychologischen Fallen. Wenn die Kurse nach unten rauschen, ist es besonders schwer, an der Anlagestrategie festzuhalten und investiert zu bleiben. Die Wahrscheinlichkeit von Panikverkäufen nimmt stark zu. Wenn man ein breit gestreutes Aktiendepot besitzt, sind solche überstürzten Verkäufe aber das Schlechteste, was man machen kann, auch wenn man unter Umständen bei weiter fallenden Kursen erstmal richtig liegt. Das eigentliche Problem liegt im Wiedereinstieg. Man kann nämlich sehr oft beobachten, dass die Kurse trotz düsterer Nachrichtenlage schon wieder in den Aufwärtsgang schalten. In einer solchen Situation trauen sich die meisten Anlegerinnen und Anleger noch nicht wieder in den Markt. Im Ergebnis hat man die Verluste zu großen Teilen mitgemacht, die in der Regel heftigen Aufwärtsbewegung aber versäumt. Damit bleibt wertvolle Rendite liegen. Weitere Psychofallen sind der Rückschaufehler, die Gefahr trügerischer Erfolge, der Hang zu zwanghaften Vergleichen und die Neigung zum Naheliegenden. Wenn bei Ihnen die Emotionen hin und wieder überkochen, empfehlen wir Ihnen einen professionellen Partner an Ihrer Seite, der Sie vor den trügerischen Fehlern bewahrt und Sie bei rationalen Investmententscheidungen unterstützt. Vereinbaren Sie gerne einen unverbindlichen Kennenlerntermin: www.quirinprivatbank.de/lp/termin-vereinbaren. Folgenempfehlung Bei vielen Investorinnen und Investoren sind an der Börse Emotionen wie Panik oder Gier und in der Folge oftmals der sogenannte Herdentrieb zu beobachten. Daraus können schnell reale Risiken bei der Geldanlage entstehen. Welche das sind und wie man diesen Risiken aus dem Weg gehen kann, hören Sie in dieser Podcastfolge: Folge 113: Herdentrieb an der Börse – wie gefährlich ist er für den Anlageerfolg? https://www.quirinprivatbank.de/podcast/podcast-folge-113 _______________________

In this episode of The Brainy Business, Melina Palmer delves into the fascinating concept of selective attention biases, shedding light on how our brains naturally filter what we focus on, influencing our decisions and perceptions. Through real-life examples and relatable anecdotes, Melina explores various biases, including the frequency illusion, mere exposure effect, and Von Restorff effect, to showcase how our perceptions are shaped by what we pay attention to.  By emphasizing the power of shifting focus and expectations, she highlights the practical implications of understanding and challenging these biases. Melina's insights provide valuable guidance on how to navigate cognitive biases effectively and make more informed choices in various aspects of life and business. Her engaging and relatable approach makes this episode a must-listen for anyone keen on improving decision-making skills. So, tune in and discover how being mindful of selective attention biases can lead to more informed choices and positive outcomes. In this episode: Recognize selective attention biases to make more informed decisions. Explore the impact of repeated exposure to enhance your perceptions. Identify cognitive biases in memory recall for improved cognitive awareness. Learn to manage the influence of expectations on focus for better decision-making. Overcome confirmation bias to enhance the quality of your judgments. Show Notes: 00:00:00 - Introduction Melina introduces the concept of selective attention biases and its impact on decision-making. The episode will cover biases related to where we focus our attention, how it impacts decisions, and how it colors our perception when looking back. 00:04:08 - Frequency Illusion and Recency Illusion Melina discusses the frequency illusion, selection bias, and recency illusion, explaining how our brains notice things more after they come to our attention. This leads to biases in decision-making and impacts our perceptions. 00:10:07 - Selective Perception and Attentional Bias Melina delves into the concepts of selective perception and attentional bias, highlighting how our expectations influence the way we perceive things. She emphasizes the power of shifting focus and expectations for positive impact. 00:13:34 - Rhyme as Reason Effect, Belief Bias, and Conjunction Fallacy Melina explores the impact of the rhyme as reason effect on decision-making and the tendency to believe rhyming statements. She also explains the belief bias and conjunction fallacy, shedding light on how our biases influence the logical strength of arguments. 00:16:06 - Base Rate Fallacy and Base Rate Neglect Melina discusses the base rate fallacy and neglect, emphasizing how we tend to focus on specific information while ignoring general or base rate information. These biases can lead to faulty decision-making and misinterpretation of probabilities. 00:16:58 - Understanding Biased Decision Making Blue dominates the cab market, but witnesses tend to misidentify cab colors. This bias affects decision-making and highlights the need to consider base rates in our judgments. 00:19:17 - Impact of Biases on Research and Business Biases impact scientists' studies and lead to expectancy effects, illusory correlations, and subjective validation. These biases can hinder businesses' ability to accurately assess customer groups and marketing strategies. 00:23:13 - Overcoming Confirmation Bias Confirmation bias affects our ability to search for and interpret information. We tend to focus on information that confirms our beliefs, leading to narrow perspectives. Overcoming bias requires open-mindedness and seeking input from diverse perspectives. 00:27:24 - Hindsight Bias and Outcome Bias Hindsight bias leads us to view past events as more predictable than they were, impacting future decisions. Outcome bias causes us to judge decisions based on their results rather than the information available at the time. Both biases can distort our memory of past events. 00:29:41 - Conclusion Melina's top insights from the conversation. What stuck with you while listening to the episode? What are you going to try? Come share it with Melina on social media -- you'll find her as @thebrainybiz everywhere and as Melina Palmer on LinkedIn. Thanks for listening. Don't forget to subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Android. If you like what you heard, please leave a review on iTunes and share what you liked about the show.  I hope you love everything recommended via The Brainy Business! Everything was independently reviewed and selected by me, Melina Palmer. So you know, as an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. That means if you decide to shop from the links on this page (via Amazon or others), The Brainy Business may collect a share of sales or other compensation. Let's connect: Melina@TheBrainyBusiness.com The Brainy Business® on Facebook The Brainy Business on Twitter The Brainy Business on Instagram The Brainy Business on LinkedIn Melina on LinkedIn The Brainy Business on Youtube Learn and Support The Brainy Business: Check out and get your copies of Melina's Books.  Get the Books Mentioned on (or related to) this Episode: Foolproof, by Sander van der Linden Tune In, by Nuala Walsh What Your Employees Need and Can't Tell You, by Melina Palmer Both/And Thinking, by Wendy Smith and Marianne Lewis Thinking, Fast and Slow, by Daniel Kahneman Top Recommended Next Episode: Nuala Walsh Interview (ep 153) Already Heard That One? Try These:  Sander van der Linden Interview (ep 337) Wendy Smith Interview (ep 261) Overview of Personal Biases (ep 45) Biases Toward Others – Including Groups (ep 314) Memory Biases (ep 280) Present Versus Future Biases (ep 246) Availability Bias (ep 310) Other Important Links:  Brainy Bites - Melina's LinkedIn Newsletter

Hindsight bias occurs when people feel that they “knew it all along” – when they believe that an event is more predictable after it becomes known than it was before it became known2 . In other words, when we're looking back at an event after it already happened, knowing that outcome influences our perception of the events leading up to it. Nir And Far, a podcast about business, behaviour and the brain by Nir Eyal. If you enjoy this podcast, please subscribe on iTunes and leave an iTunes review. It will greatly help new listeners discover the show. Please visit my website Nir and Far for other info about my writing, books and teaching: http://www.nirandfar.com/ --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/nirandfar/support

Why do people say they knew the winner of the election would win from the beginning? Why do sports commentators say they knew the winning team would win all along? Why do we say “hindsight is 20/20”?    In less than 4 minutes, learn how to be a better forecaster.

Well here we are. The rabbit hole that took Bob on quite the chase. 10 Psychological fallacies that we may encounter and deal with. In this episode we go for GROUPTHINK and HINDSIGHT BIAS.   Also, Feb 7th, 2024 at 1930 Est is the first long form episode of the After Action Report Podcast featuring Rick emery which will be streaming on Facebook and YouTube. Comments will be on!   Thank you to our sponsor for this episode: Industrial Emergency Council (IEC) Providing great training for great folks. Check them out here.   Just in case you've been hiding under a rock, we're now out and about doing in-person training. Don't let your agency miss out on this act! Click here to see our expanding catalog of offerings, or you can skip right to the chase, and click here to get the ball rolling. If you would like to advertise with us, click here to get on our mailing list and find out about what we can offer to get your company's message in front of more eyes. You can get even more content than the audio-only version you are enjoying here! Upgrade your account to a Technician or Specialist to get the video, early release, and monthly happy hour with us by clicking here. Our hazardous materials training manual is finally available on Amazon! Click here to get your copy. Don't forget to rate, review, and subscribe. Thanks! Follow us on the socials: Facebook Instagram LinkedIn YouTube Thanks for listening and watching!   Don't just get on the job, get into the job!™ haz mat, hazmat, chemical, chemistry, bias

CONQUER SHYNESS

Every podcast episode we explore a Lindy book, and find ideas you can use in business and life. Join 3,000+ curious minds and avid readers @ rationalvc.com to get free access to essays and exclusive content. For the video version of episode click here.   Timestamps: (00:00) Intro / chit-chat (20:11) Randomness & Luck (24:46) Monte Carlo Simulation (31:09) Ergodicity (31:39) Hindsight Bias (38:00) Survivorship Bias (39:50) Asymmetric Bets / John & Nero (49:53) Skewness & Asymmetry (57:19) Pascal's Wager (1:00:53) Induction & Chaos Theory (1:03:22) Chapter 11 (1:08:45) System-1 vs System-2 Thinking (1:10:03) Satisficing (1:20:08) Normative vs Positive Thinking (1:25:52) Signal vs Noise (1:28:20) Heuristics (1:33:45) Final Part of Book (Part 3's Importance) (1:44:41) Favourite Quotes / Our Lives (2:06:11) Final Thoughts - Our website (all essays and podcasts): rationalvc.com  Our investment fund: rational.fund  Cyrus' Twitter: x.com/CyrusYari  Iman's Twitter: x.com/iman_olya -   Disclaimer: The materials provided are solely for informational or entertainment purposes and do not constitute investment or legal advice. All opinions expressed by hosts and guests are solely their own opinions and do not reflect the opinion of their employer(s). #Lindy #knowledge #books

It's season 28 and we're kicking it off with a look at how we make decisions. See, we all have models through which we see the choices before us. We decided to start this series with a look at some of the acknowledged mental models around decision-making to help us create a vernacular we can use to discuss how our brains are impacted by choices in our lives and our ADHD.Mental models are bite-sized, condensed views that help us understand ourselves and the world around us. We explore various mental models that can both aid and hinder our decision-making, such as the tendency to want to do something, confirmation bias, hindsight bias, overgeneralizing from small samples, social proof, and opportunity costs. We discuss the importance of using these models with caution and not relying on them entirely for decision-making. Join us as we explore these fascinating concepts and gain insights into how our biases and tendencies can influence our choices.Links & NotesDig into the podcast Shownotes Database (00:00) - Welcome to Taking Control: The ADHD Podcast (03:24) - Support the show and Become a Patron today! (04:23) - Mental Models of Decision Making (08:14) - The Tendency to Want to Do Something (12:22) - Confirmation Bias (22:20) - Hindsight Bias (29:38) - Overgeneralizing from Small Samples vs. The Law of Large Numbers (34:46) - Social Proof (39:28) - Opportunity Costs ★ Support this podcast on Patreon ★

BEHAVIORAL FINANCE SERIES: HINDSIGHT BIAS FROM BALTIMORE WASHINGTON FINANCIAL ADVISORS with Sandy Hornor | CEPS Managing Director, Wealth Management & Executive Manager, BWFA and special guests Tyler Kluge | CFP®, CPWA®, CDFA®, CEPS Financial Planner, BWFA Joseph DePatie | CFA,... Read More The post EP33: Behavioral Finance Series: Hindsight Bias – 10.18.23 first appeared on Baltimore Washington Financial Advisors. The post EP33: Behavioral Finance Series: Hindsight Bias – 10.18.23 appeared first on Baltimore Washington Financial Advisors.

Dive into the essential concepts of Hindsight Bias and Risk with this video, designed specifically for new and struggling traders! Mastering these principles early will fast-track your learning process, steering you clear of common pitfalls and enhancing your trading strategies. Whether you've found yourself questioning your entry points or wrestling with the balance of risk and reward, this video provides real-life examples and scenarios to clarify these critical concepts. Don't let hindsight cloud your judgment or let incomplete understanding of risk lead you astray! Uncover the secrets to objective trading, refine your approach, and navigate the stock market with confidence. Got questions? Drop them below, and let's expedite your trading journey! #HindsightBias #RiskInTrading #LearningToTrade #TradingPsychology #BalancingRiskAndReward

Losing a beloved pet is an incredibly emotional experience, and as dog trainers, we've all been there. It's tough to navigate the complicated feelings of grief, guilt, and anticipation that come with this inevitable reality. That's why our hosts Crystal Wing and Stacy Barnett invited back Dr. Deborah Jones, a Ph.D. in social and behavioral psychology and a dog trainer with over 30 years of experience.During this heartfelt conversation, they tackle the challenge of living in the moment with our pets while anticipating their eventual loss. By touching on issues like dealing with criticism, communication, and facing guilt and regret over decisions we make for our pets, Dr. Jones provides valuable insights to help us navigate these overwhelming emotions.Together, Crystal, Stacy, and Dr. Jones reflect on ways to assign meaning and connection to our dogs, such as through the colors and patterns of their gear, creating lasting mementos that help us remember and honor them. This episode emphasizes the importance of allowing ourselves to feel and process these emotions, ultimately leading to a fuller, richer life with our canine companions.Key Topics:Feeling and Processing the Emotions of Grief (0:02:00)The Hindsight Bias (0:10:46)Dealing with Social Criticism and Setting Boundaries (0:17:38)How to Conceptualize Grief and Anticipatory Grief (0:25:27)How You Grieve Can Affect Your Relationships with Your Next Dog (0:37:24)Grieving is a Process Unique to Each Person (0:52:38)Takeaways (0:56:14)Resources:When the Loss is Deep: A Companion Animal Grief Journal (book) (affiliate link)We want to hear from you:Check out the K9 Detection Collaborative FB page and comment on the episode post!K9Sensus Foundation can be found on Facebook and Instagram. We have a Trainer's Group on Facebook!Scentsabilities Nosework is also on Facebook. Here is a Facebook group you should join!Crystal Wing K9 Coach can be found here!You can follow us for notifications of upcoming episodes, find us at k9detectioncollaborative.com to enjoy the freebies, and tell your friends so you can keep the conversations going.Jingle by: www.mavericksings.com Instagram: @mavericktasticAudio editing & other podcast services by: www.thepodcastman.com Instagram: @the_podcast_man

Quickie with Bob: Brain Stimulation; News Items: Harvesting Energy from Air, Breakups and Hindsight Bias, AI Seance, Monster Stars; Your Questions and E-mails: Attenboroughs, Trees and CO2; Science or Fiction

Quickie with Bob: Brain Stimulation; News Items: Harvesting Energy from Air, Breakups and Hindsight Bias, AI Seance, Monster Stars; Your Questions and E-mails: Attenboroughs, Trees and CO2; Science or Fiction

In today's conversation, I am joined by Dr. Merle van den Akker. Merle is a behavioral scientist who has recently completed a Ph.D. at the Warwick Business School, studying the effect of different payment methods on personal finance management. She decided to leave academia to apply behavioral insights in the real world and has become a behavioral science manager at a financial well-being unit in an Australian bank. She continues to research and apply behavioral science to improve financial services and consumer (financial) well-being. Next to this, Merle is a science communicator, running the blog Money on the Mind, and the MoneyPsychologist TikTok account, where she disseminates insights from the intersection of behavioral science and personal finance. Last, to not leave academia behind fully, Merle also still teaches behavioral science as well as courses on fintech developments at top Australian universities. Merle was also a finalist for Content Person of the Year in the Habit Weekly Awards in 2022 along with myself and many other amazing content creators in the space including next week's guest who won the award last year. In today's conversation, we are talking about personal finance – both for individuals and how it applies to any business. Stress at home can impact performance at work, and there are some ways businesses can be helping their employees feel more comfortable -- and do better work -- if they are thoughtful about personal finances and what is going on in the world around them. Even if your company doesn't believe it is impacted by inflation or the massive layoffs that have been happening recently...think again. Merle and I dig in on how social media and other availability-bias- and herding-fueled messaging is impacting everyone, and what companies can be doing to help their employees to feel more secure and less stressed. Show Notes: [00:42] In today's conversation, I am joined by Dr. Merle van den Akker. Merle is a behavioral scientist who has recently completed a Ph.D. at the Warwick Business School studying the effect of different payment methods on personal finance management.  [02:21] Stress at home can impact performance at work and there are some ways businesses can help their employees feel more comfortable and do better work.  [04:34] Merle shares about herself, her background, and the work she does. She runs the Money on the Mind blog, where she writes about how behavioral science applies to personal finance.  [06:42] Spending on a credit card is incredibly different than spending with cash.  [07:37] With contactless payments, people tend to spend a bit more and then they actually have a much worse recall of what they spent.  [09:32] Mental accounting is expenditure and research tracking in your head.  [11:51] It is important to ask thoughtful questions in business and research.  [14:25] You have a mental and a physical account for savings and your credit whether you are in debt or not.  [16:54] Behavioral science can contribute positively to the cost of living crisis in major ways. When people act out of fear they don't make great decisions.  [18:54] Learned helplessness is a very dangerous state to get into. You need to be able to get into a mindset where you are still able to act.  [21:50] Having too much pressure on people's time is impacting their ability to do really good, thoughtful work.  [24:28] The present bias is a very inconvenient bias and is something you should be aware of.  [27:31] As an employee, it is important to know what would and would not work and ask for that from your employer. An employer should be open and expectant to have these conversations.  [30:36] There can be more thoughtful and creative solutions for ways employers can help that don't cost them a lot of money.  [32:45] You can help be a solution for customers and employees by having this overall awareness of what is happening in the world and how that is going to be impacting behavior.  [34:09] If your brain is in overload the last thing it wants is ambiguity.  [35:42] You don't want people to act out of fear because they will make decisions that don't benefit anyone in the long run. That is something we should really try to avoid.  [37:53] Social media algorithms give you more of what you show interest in. Something may feel like it is everywhere, when in reality the algorithms are just showing it to you a lot.    [39:46] Always take the time in stressful moments to breathe and get out of that hot state to look and see what you can do differently.  [41:01] It is a win-win situation to have employees that are not just cowering under an enormous load of stress and fear and as a result being rendered almost nonfunctional.  [42:34] Melina's closing thoughts. [43:01] If you focus on helping your people with more aspects of their lives then just what feels immediately relative to your bottom line can have really great impacts financially and otherwise.  Thanks for listening. Don't forget to subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Android. If you like what you heard, please leave a review on iTunes and share what you liked about the show.  I hope you love everything recommended via The Brainy Business! Everything was independently reviewed and selected by me, Melina Palmer. So you know, as an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. That means if you decide to shop from the links on this page (via Amazon or others), The Brainy Business may collect a share of sales or other compensation. Let's connect: Melina@TheBrainyBusiness.com The Brainy Business® on Facebook The Brainy Business on Twitter The Brainy Business on Instagram The Brainy Business on LinkedIn Melina on LinkedIn The Brainy Business on Youtube Join the BE Thoughtful Revolution – our free behavioral economics community, and keep the conversation going! Learn and Support The Brainy Business: Check out and get your copies of Melina's Books.  Get the Books Mentioned on (or related to) this Episode: Nudge, by Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein What Your Customer Wants and Can't Tell You, by Melina Palmer Scarcity, by Sendhil Mullainathan and Eldar Shafir  Subtract, by Leidy Klotz The Power of Scarcity, by Mindy Weinstein Connect with Merle:  Money on the Mind Merle on Twitter Merle on LinkedIn Top Recommended Next Episode: Common Errors in Financial Decision Making with Dr. Chuck Howard (ep 213) Already Heard That One? Try These:  The Pain of Paying (ep 240) Hindsight Bias (ep 167) Time Discounting (ep 51) Common Errors in Financial Decision Making with Dr. Chuck Howard (ep 213) How To Set Up Your Own Experiments (ep 63) Mental Accounting (ep 282) That Time I Went Viral… with Dr. Daniel Crosby (ep 212) Survivorship Bias (ep 110) Herding (ep 264) Availability Bias (ep 15) Time Pressure (ep 74) The Overwhelmed Brain and Its Impact on Decision Making (ep 32) Loss Aversion (ep 9) Past, Present, and Future Biases  (ep 246) Expect Error: The "E" in NUDGES (ep 39) Give Feedback: The "G" in NUDGES (ep 40) Ambiguity Aversion (ep 243) Other Important Links:  Brainy Bites - Melina's LinkedIn Newsletter Learned Helplessness Invest now, drink later, spend never: On the mental accounting of delayed consumption

How much do you depend on your intuition and how much do you trust it? In this show psychologist, Dr. Frank McAndrew will define and offer a close look at what intuition is, how we develop it and why we need it. He will invite you to consider those situations where intuition will lead you astray by exemplifying common errors like “Hindsight Bias” or “the Power of the Particular.” He will consider whether there are gender differences in the use of intuition and the role of intuition in responding to misinformation. Importantly he will take on the question and value of making use of what famous Economist, Dan Kahneman calls “ Thinking Fast and Slow” – the use of both intuition and collected data – facts. Dr. McAndrew never fails at offering a wealth of knowledge in an interesting way. Listen in.

How much do you depend on your intuition and how much do you trust it? In this show psychologist, Dr. Frank McAndrew will define and offer a close look at what intuition is, how we develop it and why we need it. He will invite you to consider those situations where intuition will lead you astray by exemplifying common errors like “Hindsight Bias” or “the Power of the Particular.” He will consider whether there are gender differences in the use of intuition and the role of intuition in responding to misinformation. Importantly he will take on the question and value of making use of what famous Economist, Dan Kahneman calls “ Thinking Fast and Slow” – the use of both intuition and collected data – facts. Dr. McAndrew never fails at offering a wealth of knowledge in an interesting way. Listen in.

Part of being a confident investor is knowing your own biases and how they affect your outlook on the word. Today, Paul opens up with a conversation about geo-political tensions to talk about “hindsight bias,” a phenomenon where—after the event happens—your brain convinces you that you it was going to happen all along. Paul explains it's better to be patient and trust the process and instead of letting hindsight bias lead you into market timing. Later in the episode, Paul shares the most recent PWI newsletter that addresses some of the most pressing questions from investors and investor anxiety.   Get a copy of our new book, Confident Financial Planning, at paulwinkler.com/book.

Hindsight Bias Hello, this is Hall T. Martin with the Startup Funding Espresso -- your daily shot of startup funding and investing. The hindsight bias is defined by Wikipedia as the tendency to see past events as being predictable at the time those events happened. When an investor sees a  startup fail or succeed, early indicators come back to the investor's mind. In some cases, investors selectively remember certain events or facts that later confirm the outcome.  This can lead to overconfidence.  If one believes he can predict the outcome then he'll make mistakes erroneously thinking he can predict the outcome of any startup. Oftentimes, success or failure is a combination of factors such as market selection, timing, and team dynamics, and not just one facet of the business. To overcome the hindsight bias remember you cannot predict the future. Review the facts of the startup and not just how you feel about it. Write out your thought process including the facts at hand and the justification for making the investment. When the outcome of the investment becomes known, you can refer back to the notes to check your decision-making. Consider other outcomes aside from the one you expect and keep an open mind throughout the process. Build a decision-making process and focus on it rather than guessing the outcome.    Thank you for joining us for the Startup Funding Espresso where we help startups and investors connect for funding. Let's go startup something today. _______________________________________________________ For more episodes from Investor Connect, please visit the site at:   Check out our other podcasts here:   For Investors check out:   For Startups check out:   For eGuides check out:   For upcoming Events, check out    For Feedback please contact info@tencapital.group    Please , share, and leave a review. Music courtesy of .

Today, we wrap up our week-long master class with David Myers with a discussion of hindsight bias and how it can help you be less hard on yourself. Our newsletter comes out today! Sign up now.

Happy (late) new year!! As we leave 2022 behind us and enter 2023, many of us may try to leave our regrets behind us. In this episode, Yusra and Lauren share their own regrets relating to talent shows, middle school crushes, and more! They also discuss what can cause us to regret so much, if "No Regrets" is a useful saying, and tips to deal with regret.Check out the sources we used here: https://kvisit.com/9AE/7vsGCredits:Yusra Sulaiman, Lauren Wang, Rookia Alam, Caleb WangMusic: Everything I Want [Original Mix] by Imperss is licensed under a Creative Commons License.https://creativecommons.org/licenses/...Support by RFM - NCM: https://bit.ly/2xGHFill out our episode ideas form to give us ideas for future topics!! --> https://tinyurl.com/wdidtfdback

There is now general consensus that the commodities crisis was unavoidable—but was it really? Behavioral economists don't think so. Nor do they think it likely to repeat itself in exactly the same way. They blame our thinking on “hindsight bias.”

The market doesn't have a memory, but investors do. And many investors get fooled because of it. Paul shares an article from the WSJ called “Mirror Mirror on the Wall, Who Knew that Stocks Would Fall?” by Jason Zweig. He interviews people about their predictions for 2022 in January, and then follows up at the end of the year to see if anyone can remember their predictions. Investors strangely remember making predictions they never made. Listen along as Paul explains hindsight bias and how it can kill a great investment plan. Later, Paul and the team spend some time talking about changes for Apple in the EU, and why markets need competition. To get a copy of our new book, Confident Financial Planning, go to paulwinkler.com/book.

How much do you depend on your intuition and how much do you trust it? In this show psychologist, Dr. Frank McAndrew will define and offer a close look at what intuition is, how we develop it and why we need it. He will invite you to consider those situations where intuition will lead you astray by exemplifying common errors like “Hindsight Bias” or “the Power of the Particular.” He will consider whether there are gender differences in the use of intuition and the role of intuition in responding to misinformation. Importantly he will take on the question and value of making use of what famous Economist, Dan Kahneman calls “ Thinking Fast and Slow” – the use of both intuition and collected data – facts. Dr. McAndrew never fails at offering a wealth of knowledge in an interesting way. Listen in.

How much do you depend on your intuition and how much do you trust it? In this show psychologist, Dr. Frank McAndrew will define and offer a close look at what intuition is, how we develop it and why we need it. He will invite you to consider those situations where intuition will lead you astray by exemplifying common errors like “Hindsight Bias” or “the Power of the Particular.” He will consider whether there are gender differences in the use of intuition and the role of intuition in responding to misinformation. Importantly he will take on the question and value of making use of what famous Economist, Dan Kahneman calls “ Thinking Fast and Slow” – the use of both intuition and collected data – facts. Dr. McAndrew never fails at offering a wealth of knowledge in an interesting way. Listen in.

How much do you depend on your intuition and how much do you trust it? In this show psychologist, Dr. Frank McAndrew will define and offer a close look at what intuition is, how we develop it and why we need it. He will invite you to consider those situations where intuition will lead you astray by exemplifying common errors like “Hindsight Bias” or “the Power of the Particular.” He will consider whether there are gender differences in the use of intuition and the role of intuition in responding to misinformation. Importantly he will take on the question and value of making use of what famous Economist, Dan Kahneman calls “ Thinking Fast and Slow” – the use of both intuition and collected data – facts. Dr. McAndrew never fails at offering a wealth of knowledge in an interesting way. Listen in.

What does it take to last 100 years? Nancy Meadows, CEO of BridgeWays, shares her insights on how and why her organization has lasted almost a century. She discusses necessary organizational pivots of mission, programs, branding, and more that BridgeWays has made over the decades. So, how do you know what or which pivots to make (or not make)? What's the appropriate timeline for successful pivots? Should the process be fast or slow? What types of data and analysis is useful when it comes to decisions about large and small changes? How do you select the right people to surround yourself with in order to accomplish successful pivots?   Nancy also discusses their organizational role in bridging "where youth are" and "where they can be" as it relates to life and career preparation. She explains BridgeWays focus on Social and Emotional Learning, including interpersonal skills building, goal setting skills, exposure to healthy teamwork, conflict resolution skills, and other skillsets sometimes illogically termed 'soft skills' that, in reality, are often deemed as "critical skills" by employers. This episode also includes discussions about “Hindsight Bias,” alternately called “Knew-It-All-Along Phenomenon,” as it relates to the perception that successful pivots in the past were much more obvious than they actually were in real time.RESOURCES:>BridgeWays website>Nancy Meadows' Bio>BridgeWays Facebook Page>Pauline Fletcher's Story>Camp Fletcher   Brain Chatter, a podcast where we listen past the daily noise and explore topics at the intersection of leadership, workplace culture, profit, and sustainability.

Why do rational people believe irrational things? Neil deGrasse Tyson and Chuck Nice break down media literacy, the psychology behind conspiracy theories, and how to combat our cognitive biases with author and science historian, Michael Shermer.NOTE: StarTalk+ Patrons can listen to this entire episode commercial-free.Thanks to our Patrons Zachary Vex, Alexandru Dolipschi, Chris Knopp, Gianni Gaetano, and D'Angelo Garcia for supporting us this week.Photo Credit: Charlie Duke, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

In today's conversation, I am joined by Annie Duke, a former professional poker player (widely known as one of the best female players in the world) who also has an impressive and fascinating background in psychology, which she will talk about on the show today. I've been wanting to have Annie on for ages, she has two other fantastic books called Thinking in Bets and How to Decide, and I am so delighted that she wrote this additional book, Quit, which we are talking about today (and really, she talks about all three books in our conversation). I am so honored and delighted that Annie took the time to chat with me for this interview. We had a great conversation and ended up chatting for over 90 minutes (with about 80 of those recorded). Here on the show today, we are cutting that conversation down to fit in under an hour but if you want to hear the full conversation in detail, come on over to the BE Thoughtful Revolution membership group -- it's our free community of behavioral economics enthusiasts from around the world, and you can check out the full video interview and conversation. Annie is a wealth of knowledge and insights, so you will want to glean every extra moment just like I did, I'm sure – be sure to stick around for monkeys and pedestals! Show Notes: [00:40] In today's conversation, I am joined by Annie Duke, a former professional poker player who also has an impressive and fascinating background in psychology. [03:07] Annie shares her background and how she found herself in the world of behavioral science.  [04:41] Her brother was the one who suggested she play poker and she ended up playing poker for 18 years as her profession.  [06:05] After eight years as a poker player she started getting asked to give talks. The first talk she gave was to a group of options traders and she talked about how poker might inform your thinking about cognitive bias. From there she started getting referrals and spending more time speaking than playing poker.  [07:11] In 2012, she retired from poker to spend more time on the business side of things and started consulting and speaking full-time.  [09:13] If you look at anything on Annie's journey from the time she entered graduate school, it is all decision-making under uncertainty.    [11:09] The more ways that you are thinking about problems and the different frames that you have to ponder these issues you end up bringing something different to the table.  [12:54] Premortems can be very effective if you combine them with other good decision-making tools.  [15:14] If you use prospective hindsight instead of just forward planning, research shows you will generate 30% more reasons for failure or success if you didn't do prospective hindsight.  [17:14] Self-serving bias is that when bad things happen to us as individuals we tend to blame them on things that are outside of our control.   [19:49] Other researchers suggest that premortems need to be done in groups to be successful.  [22:42] Thinking in Bets was a book that she had really wanted to write for many years, which is about making decisions under uncertainty.  [25:27] One of the things she really talks about in Thinking in Bets is resulting. Resulting is when we look at other people and assume if they have a bad outcome then they made a bad decision and a good outcome is from luck (whereas when we have a bad outcome it is luck and a good outcome is from our good decision making – this is very similar to fundamental attribution error).   [26:55] She wrote How to Decide as a companion, which had more practical tools for making decisions.  [28:23] Annie shares about writing her new book Quit.   [30:44] Most of the decisions you make you can actually probably make faster. The way to decide if you can go faster is by looking at the consequences of getting the decision wrong.  [33:01] We are really bad at exercising the option to quit when the time comes. The option to quit is very valuable.  [35:02] She shares the many Zoom conversations with influential behavioral scientists she had prior to writing her new book about quitting.   [36:36] Science shows that when we quit, we are usually doing it too late.  [38:45] One of the problems we have is that once we set a goal we are immediately in the losses.  [39:20] Annie shares about the California Bullet Train.  [41:51] After getting the project approved once starting the project they realize they have two big problems… (Why didn't they “see” them before?)  [44:22] Instead of stopping the project, they approved two pieces of track that don't address the gigantic engineering problems. [46:13] Monkeys and pedestals is an incredibly helpful framework for trying to figure out how you approach projects to find out the information you need to find out the fastest so you can figure out if it is something you want to stick to.  [47:26] She shares the monkeys and pedestal's story. You have to start with the monkey (the hard part) of the problem first.  [49:11] When you do but up against hard things you tend to turn to pedestal building rather than to quit (similar to bikeshedding).   [50:28] You should definitely tackle the monkeys first. [51:51] You follow the premortem by looking at the monkeys and pedestals. You figure out what the monkeys are and then you change your plans according to that.  [53:20] Kill criteria are what you could see or find out in the future that would tell you that you ought to quit.  [55:01] There is no point in tackling any low-hanging fruit if you can't train the monkey. Figure out the hard problem first.  [57:34] Winners quit a lot. That is how they win. Winners sample a lot of stuff, settle on a course of action, tackle the monkeys first, and if the world gives them another signal they switch. [58:41] Winners pick the right things to stick to and they abandon everything else.  [60:52] Melina shares her closing thoughts.  [61:08] Thoughtful quitting, stopping doing things that aren't serving you anymore isn't a failure -- that is a win. That is a sign of doing great big amazing things! If you never quit, you can never win because you will be spread too thin. Thanks for listening. Don't forget to subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Android. If you like what you heard, please leave a review on iTunes and share what you liked about the show.  I hope you love everything recommended via The Brainy Business! Everything was independently reviewed and selected by me, Melina Palmer. So you know, as an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. That means if you decide to shop from the links on this page (via Amazon or others), The Brainy Business may collect a share of sales or other compensation. Let's connect: Melina@TheBrainyBusiness.com The Brainy Business® on Facebook The Brainy Business on Twitter The Brainy Business on Instagram The Brainy Business on LinkedIn Melina on LinkedIn The Brainy Business on Youtube Join the BE Thoughtful Revolution – our free behavioral economics community, and keep the conversation going! Learn and support The Brainy Business: Check out and get your copies of Melina's Books.  Get the Books Mentioned on (or related to) this Episode: Thinking in Bets, by Annie Duke How to Decide, by Annie Duke Quit, by Annie Duke Superforecasting, by Dan Gardner and Philip E. Tetlock How to Change, by Katy Milkman Power of Regret, by Daniel Pink Connect with Annie:  Annie's Website Annie on Twitter Annie on LinkedIn Top Recommended Next Episode: Game Theory (episode 62) Already Heard That One? Try These:  Loss Aversion (episode 9) Framing (episode 16) The Most Important Step in Applying Behavioral Economics: Understanding the Problem (episode 126) 3 Steps to Better Decision Making, An Interview with Matthew Confer (episode 158) Counterfactual Thinking  (episode 68) How To Change, an interview Dr. Katy Milkman (episode 51) Fundamental Attribution Error (episode 92) Planning Fallacy (episode 114) Precommitment (episode 120) Hindsight Bias (episode 167) Bikeshedding (episode 99) Status Quo Bias (episode 142) Endowment Effect (episode 139) Survivorship Bias (episode 110) Mental Accounting (episode 56) Other Important Links:  Brainy Bites - Melina's LinkedIn Newsletter  A Slight Change of Plans Podcast with Maya Shankar Annie's Newsletter

This is a recording of our weekly community call which happens every Friday at 3 PM EST. This episode was recorded February 4, 2022. Today we take a sigh of relief as markets are recovering. But for how long? We also discuss the Wormhole bridge hack, trading behavior, gamefi, NFTs, and more. What is TradFi to DeFi? TradFi to DeFi is a community of like-minded crypto enthusiasts. We are a networking hub, project incubator, talent connector, mentorship provider, and opportunity maximizer for the DeFi user, whether new or experienced. What is our mission? As the world transitions from the status quo of Traditional Finance (TradFi) to the emerging world of Decentralized Finance (DeFi), there is a tremendous need for talent that can navigate this brave new world. We structured this podcast to equip you with the skills needed to understand DeFi tools while also providing opportunities for learning, networking, and professional development. How can I get involved? Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/TradFitoDeFi Join us on Discord: https://discord.gg/uqjzvJEeYc --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/tradfitodefi/message

Sometimes a manager makes a gutsy pitching move in the postseason. When they work, a manager can punch his ticket to the Hall of Fame. When they do not work, they can lead to a pink slip.The difference? It is all Hindsight Bias.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKED15,” and you'll get 15% off your next order.BetOnline AGThere is only 1 place that has you covered and 1 place we trust. Betonline.ag! Sign up today for a free account at betonline.ag and use that promocode: LOCKEDON for your 50% welcome bonus.Find Every MLB Team Covered: https://linktr.ee/lockedonmlb#MLB #Baseball #WorldSeries Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

There have been some awful trades in baseball history involving future Hall of Famers like Babe Ruth, Frank Robinson, Tom Seaver, Randy Johnson and Nolan Ryan.What were those teams thinking making those dumb deals?On today's episode, we examine those awful trades and remove Hindsight Bias and see if the trades made sense if we forget that we know how they turned out.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKED15,” and you'll get 15% off your next order.BetOnline AGThere is only 1 place that has you covered and 1 place we trust. Betonline.ag! Sign up today for a free account at betonline.ag and use that promocode: LOCKEDON for your 50% welcome bonus.Find Every MLB Team Covered: https://linktr.ee/lockedonmlb#MLB #Baseball #WorldSeries Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this episode, we talk about the possible outcomes a piece of advice can have even as it has a positive expected value.

He was a ruthless dictator and everyone was sure the President would meet with him. Or were they? As it turns out, hindsight really isn't 20/20. And this blindness can wreak havoc on our decisions in the future.(Hindsight Bias, Decision Making)

Episode 30! We will talk news! We talk about The Last Dance. It's Memorial Day weekend! What are your plans? TV's best dads. The Abilene Paradox and Hindsight Bias because I am taking an online course on Social Psychology.

Jason Hartman and Investment Counselor Adam start off today's show discussing the mindset of investors that needs to change. The whole idea of a "discount" isn't a reliable methodology for investors, things should be viewed in a win-win lense. Then Jason talks with Gabriel Weinberg, founder of DuckDuckGo and author of Traction: How Any Startup Can Achieve Customer Growth and Super Thinking: The Big Book of Mental Models, about how you can use some of the mental models to help you achieve the returns you desire. They also touch on the problem of achieving privacy in today's world and how DuckDuckGo helps in that. Key Takeaways: [3:31] As an investor you don't have to get things at a discount, you need to get them at fair prices [5:29] You don't necessarily get the fantastic deal the day you buy it, you get a good deal at the beginning and it becomes fantastic over time [8:14] Join Jason on the upcoming cruise Gabriel Weinberg Interview: [10:34] What is Super Thinking? [15:06] The Mental Model of Forcing Function [18:58] The model of Deliberate Practice [23:47] Beware of Hindsight Bias [27:35] To really get outsized returns you need to make a bet on the future Website: www.JasonHartman.com/Cruise www.SuperThinking.com www.Twitter.com/Yegg