Podcasts about demographers

In the 1960s, a deep anxiety set in as one thing became seemingly clear: We were headed toward population catastrophe. Paul Ehrlich's “The Population Bomb” and “The Limits to Growth,” written by the Club of Rome, were just two publications warning of impending starvation due to simply too many humans on the earth.As the population ballooned year by year, it would simply be impossible to feed everyone. Demographers and environmentalists alike held their breath and braced for impact.Except that we didn't starve. On the contrary, we were better fed than ever.In his article in The New Atlantis, Charles C. Mann explains that agricultural innovation — from improved fertilization and irrigation to genetic modification — has brought global hunger to a record low.Today on Faster, Please! — The Podcast, I chat with Mann about the agricultural history they didn't teach you in school.Mann is a science journalist who has worked as a correspondent for The Atlantic, Science, and Wired magazines, and whose work has been featured in many other major publications. He is also the author of 1491: New Revelations of the Americas Before Columbus and1493: Uncovering the New World Columbus Created, as well as The Wizard and the Prophet: Two Remarkable Scientists and Their Dueling Visions to Shape Tomorrow's World.In This Episode* Intro to the Agricultural Revolution (2:04)* Water infrastructure (13:11)* Feeding the masses (18:20)* Indigenous America (25:20)Below is a lightly edited transcript of our conversation. Intro to the Agricultural Revolution (2:04)I don't think that people realize that the fact that most people on earth, almost the average person on earth, can feed themselves is a novel phenomenon. It's something that basically wasn't true since as far back as we know.Pethokoukis: What got my attention was a couple of pieces that you've worked on for The New Atlantis magazine looking at the issue of how modern Americans take for granted the remarkable systems and infrastructure that provide us comfort, safety, and a sense of luxury that would've been utterly unimaginable even to the wealthiest people of a hundred years ago or 200 years ago.Let me start off by asking you: Does it matter that we do take that for granted and that we also kind of don't understand how our world works?Mann: I would say yes, very much. It matters because these systems undergird the prosperity that we have, the good fortune that we have to be alive now, but they're always one generation away from collapse. If they aren't maintained, upgraded and modernized, they'll fall apart. They just won't stand there. So we have to be aware of this. We have to keep our eye on the ball, otherwise we won't have these things.The second thing is that, if we don't know how our society works, as citizens, we're simply not going to make very good choices about what to do with that society. I feel like both sides in our current political divide are kind of taking their eye off the ball. It's important to have good roads, it's important to have clean water, it's important to have a functioning public health system, it's important to have an agricultural system that works. It doesn't really matter who you are. And if we don't keep these things going, life will be unnecessarily bad for a lot of people, and that's just crazy to do.Is this a more recent phenomenon? If I would've asked people 50 years ago, “Explain to me how our infrastructure functions, how we get water, how we get electricity,” would they have a better idea? Is it just because things are more complicated today that we have no idea how our food gets here or why when we turn the faucet, clean water comes out?The answer is “yes” in a sort of trivial sense, in that many more people were involved in producing food, a much greater percentage of the population was involved in producing food 50 years ago. The same thing was true for the people who were building infrastructure 50 years ago.But I also think it's generally true that people's parents saw the change and knew it. So that is very much the case and, in a sense, I think we're victims of our own success. These kinds of things have brought us so much prosperity that we can afford to do crazy things like become YouTube influencers, or podcasters, or freelance writers. You don't really have any connection with how the society goes because we're sort of surfing on this wave of luxury that our ancestors bequeathed to us.I don't know how much time you spend on social media, Charles — I'm sure I spend too much — but I certainly sense that many people today, younger people especially, don't have a sense of how someone lived 50 years ago, 100 years ago, and there was just a lot more physical suffering. And certainly, if you go back far enough, you could not take for granted that you would have tomatoes in your supermarket year round, that you would have water in the house and that water would be clean. What I found really interesting — you did a piece on food and a piece on water — in the food piece you note that, in the 1980s, that was a real turning point that the average person on earth had enough to eat all the time, and rather than becoming an issue of food production, it became an issue of distribution, of governance. I think most people would be surprised of that statistic even though it's 40 years old.I don't think that people realize that the fact that most people on earth, almost the average person on earth, can feed themselves is a novel phenomenon. It's something that basically wasn't true since as far back as we know. That's this enormous turning point, and there are many of these turning points. Obviously, the introduction of antibiotics for . . . public health, which is another one of these articles they're going to be working on . . .Just about 100 years ago today, when President Coolidge was [president], his son went to play tennis at the White House tennis courts, and because he was lazy, or it was fashionable, or something, he didn't put on socks. He got a blister on his toe, the toe got infected, and he died. 100 years ago, the president of the United States, who presumably had the best healthcare available to anybody in the world, was unable to save his beloved son when the son got a trivial blister that got infected. The change from that to now is mind boggling.You've written about the Agricultural Revolution and why the great fears 40 or 50 years ago of mass starvation didn't happen. I find that an endlessly interesting topic, both for its importance and for the fact it just seems to be so underappreciated to this day, even when it was sort of obvious to people who pay attention that something was happening, it still seemed not to penetrate the public consciousness. I wonder if you could just briefly talk to me about that revolution and how it happened.The question is, how did it go from “The Population Bomb” written in 1968, a huge bestseller, hugely influential, predicting that there is going to be hundreds of millions of people dying of mass starvation, followed by other equally impassioned, equally important warnings. There's one called “Famine, 1975!,” written a few years before, that predicted mass famines in 1975. There's “The Limits to Growth.” I went to college in the '70s and these were books that were on the curriculum, and they were regarded as contemporary classics, and they all proved to be wrong.The reason is that, although they were quite correct about the fact that the human race was reproducing at that time faster than ever before, they didn't realize two things: The first is that as societies get more affluent, and particularly as societies get more affluent and give women more opportunities, birth rates decline. So that this was obviously, if you looked at history, going to be a temporary phenomenon of whatever length it was be, but it was not going to be infinite.The second was there was this enormous effort spurred by this guy named Norman Borlaug, but with tons of other people involved, to take modern science and apply it to agriculture, and that included these sort of three waves of innovation. Now, most innovation is actually just doing older technologies better, which is a huge source of progress, and the first one was irrigation. Irrigation has been around since forever. It's almost always been done badly. It's almost always not been done systematically. People started doing it better. They still have a lot of problems with it, but it's way better, and now 40 percent, roughly, of the crops in the world that are produced are produced by irrigation.The second is the introduction of fertilizer. There's two German scientists, Fritz Haber and Carl Bosch, who essentially developed the ways of taking fertilizer and making lots and lots of it in factories. I could go into more detail if you want, but that's the essential thing. This had never been done before, and suddenly cheap industrial fertilizer became available all over the world, and Vaclav Smil . . . he's sort of an environmental scientist of every sort, in Manitoba has calculated that roughly 40 percent of the people on earth today would not be alive if it wasn't for that.And then the third was the development of much better, much higher-yielding seeds, and that was the part that Norman Borlaug had done. These packaged together of irrigation fertilizer and seeds yielded what's been called the Green Revolution, doubled, tripled, or even quadrupled grain yields across the world, particularly with wheat and rice. The result is the world we live in today. When I was growing up, when you were growing up, your parents may have said to you, as they did me, Oh, eat your vegetables, there are kids that are starving in Asia.” Right? That was what was told and that was the story that was told in books like “The Population Bomb,” and now Asia's our commercial rival. When you go to Bangkok, that was a place that was hungry and now it's gleaming skyscrapers and so forth. It's all based on this fact that people are able to feed themselves through the combination of these three factors,That story, the story of mass-starvation that the Green Revolution irrigation prevented from coming true. I think a surprising number of people still think that story is relevant today, just as some people still think the population will be exploding when it seems clear it probably will not be exploding. It will rise, but then it's going to start coming down at some point this century. I think those messages just don't get through. Just like most people don't know Norm Borlaug, the Haber-Bosch process, which school kids should know. They don't know any of this. . . Borlaug won the Nobel Prize, right?Right. He won the Nobel Peace Prize. I'll tell you a funny story —I think he won it in the same year that “The Population Bomb” came out.It was just a couple years off. But you're right, the central point is right, and the funny thing is . . . I wrote another book a while back that talked about this and about the way environmentalists think about the world, and it's called the “Wizard and the Prophet” and Borlaug was the wizard of it. I thought, when I proposed it, that it would be easy. He was such an important guy, there'd be tons of biographies about him. And to this day, there isn't a real serious scholarly biography of the guy. This is a person who has done arguably more to change human life than any other person in the 20th century, certainly up in the top dozen or so. There's not a single serious biography of him.How can that be?It's because we're tremendously disconnected. It's a symptom of what I'm talking about. We're tremendously disconnected from these systems, and it's too bad because they're interesting! They're actually quite interesting to figure out: How do you get water to eight billion people? How do you get . . . It is a huge challenge, and some of the smartest people you've ever met are working on it every day, but they're working on it over here, and the public attention is over here.Water infrastructure (13:11). . . the lack of decent, clean, fresh water is the world's worst immediate environmental problem. I think people probably have some vague idea about agriculture, the Agricultural Revolution, how farming has changed, but I think, as you just referred to, the second half, water — utter mystery to people. Comes out of a pipe. The challenges of doing that in a rich country are hard. The challenges doing a country not so rich, also hard. Tell me what you find interesting about that topic.Well, whereas the story about agriculture is basically a good story: We've gotten better at it. We have a whole bunch of technical innovations that came in the 20th century and humankind is better off than ever before. With water, too, we are better off than ever before, but the maddening thing is we could be really well off because the technology is basically extremely old.There's a city, a very ancient city called Mohenjo-daro that I write about a bit in this article that was in essentially on the Pakistan-India border, 2600 BC. And they had a fully functioning water system that, in its basics, was no different than the water system that we have, or that London has, or that Paris has. So this is an ancient, ancient technology, yet we still have two billion people on the planet that don't have access to adequate water. In fact, even though we know how to do it, the lack of decent, clean, fresh water is the world's worst immediate environmental problem. And a small thing that makes me nuts is that climate change — which is real and important — gets a lot of attention, but there are people dying of not getting good water now.On top of it, even in rich countries like us, our water system is antiquated. The great bulk of it was built in the '40s, '50s, and '60s, and, like any kind of physical system, it ages, and every couple years, various engineering bodies, water bodies, the EPA, and so forth puts out a report saying, “Hey, we really have to fix the US water system and the numbers keep mounting up.” And Democrats, Republicans, they all ignore this.Who is working on the water issue in poorer countries?There you have a very ad hoc group of people. The answer is part of it's the Food and Agricultural Organization because most water in most countries is used for irrigation to grow food. You also have the World Health Organization, these kinds of bodies. You have NGOs working on it. What you don't have in those countries like our country is the government taking responsibility for coordinating something that's obviously in the national interest.So you have these things where, very periodically — a government like China has done this, Jordan has done this, Bolivia has done this, countries all over the world have done this — and they say, “Okay, we haven't been able to provide freshwater. Let's bring in a private company.” And the private company then invests all this money in infrastructure, which is expensive. Then, because it's a private company, it has to make that money back, and so it charges people for a lot of money for this, and the people are very unhappy because suddenly they're paying a quarter of their income for water, which is what I saw in Southwest China: water riots because people are paying so much for water.In other words, one of the things that government can do is sort of spread these costs over everybody, but instead they concentrate it on the users, Almost universally, these privatization efforts have led to tremendous political unhappiness because the government has essentially shifted responsibility for coordinating and doing these things and imposed a cost on a narrow minority of the users.Are we finally getting on top of the old water infrastructure in this country? It seems like during the Biden administration they had a big infrastructure bill. Do you happen to know if we are finally getting that system upgraded?Listen, I will be the only person who probably ever interviews you who's actually had to fix a water main as a summer job. I spent [it at] my local Public Works Department where we'd have to fix water mains, and this was a number of years ago, and even a number of years ago, those pipes were really, really old. It didn't take much for them to get a main break.I'm one of those weird people who is bothered by this. All I can tell you is we have a lot of aging infrastructure. The last estimate that I've seen came before this sort of sudden jerky rise of construction costs, which, if you're at all involved in building, is basically all the people in the construction industry talk about. At that point, the estimate was that it was $1.2 trillion to fix the infrastructure that we have in the United States. I am sure it is higher now. I am delighted that the Biden people passed this infrastructure — would've been great if they passed permitting reform and a couple of other things to make it easier to spend the money, but okay. I would like to believe that the Trump people would take up the baton and go on this.Feeding the masses (18:20)I do worry that the kind of regulations, and rules, and ideas that we put into place to try and make agriculture more like this picture that we have in our head will end up inadvertently causing suffering for the people who are struggling.We're still going to have another two billion people, maybe, on this earth. Are we going to be able to feed them all?Yeah, I think that there's no question. The question is what we're going to be able to feed them? Are we going to be able to feed them all, filet mignon and truffled . . . whatever they put truffle oil on, and all that? Not so sure about that.All organic vegetables.At the moment, that seems really implausible, and there's a sort of fundamental argument going on here. There's a lot of people, again, both right and left, who are sort of freaked out by the scale that modern agriculture operates on. You fly over the middle-west and you see all those circles of center-pivot irrigation, they plowed under, in the beginning of the 20th century, 100 million acres of prairie to produce all that. And it's done with enormous amounts of capital, and it was done also partly by moving people out so that you could have this enormous stuff. The result is it creates a system that . . . doesn't match many people's vision of the friendly family farmer that they grew up with. It's a giant industrial process and people are freaked out by the scale. They don't trust these entities, the Cargills and the ADMs, and all these huge companies that they see as not having their interests at heart.It's very understandable. I live in a small town, we have a farm down there, and Jeremy runs it, and I'm very happy to see Jeremy. There's no Jeremy at Archer Daniels Midland. So the result is that there's a big revulsion against that, and people want to downsize the scale, and they point to very real environmental problems that big agriculture has, and they say that that is reason for this. The great problem is that in every single study that I am aware of, the sort of small, local farms don't produce as much food per acre or per hectare as the big, soulless industrial processes. So if you're concerned about feeding everybody, that's something you have to really weigh in your head, or heavy in your heart.That sort of notion of what a farm should look like and what good food is, that kind of almost romantic notion really, to me, plays into the sort of anti-growth or the degrowth people who seemed to be saying that farms could only be this one thing — probably they don't even remember those farms anymore — that I saw in a storybook. It's like a family farm, everything's grown local, not a very industrial process, but you're talking about a very different world. Maybe that's a world they want, but I don't know if that's a world you want if you're a poor person in this world.No, and like I said, I love going to the small farm next to us and talking to Jeremy and he says, “Oh look, we've just got these tomatoes,” it's great, but I have to pay for that privilege. And it is a privilege because Jeremy is barely making it and charging twice as much as the supermarket. There's no economies of scale for him. He still has to buy all the equipment, but he's putting it over 20 acres instead of 2000 acres. In addition, it's because it's this hyper-diverse farm — which is wonderful; they get to see the strawberries, and the tomatoes, and all the different things — it means he has to hire much more labor than it would be if he was just specializing in one thing. So his costs are inevitably much, much higher, and, therefore, I have to pay a lot more to keep him going. That's fine for me; I'm a middle-class person, I like food, this can be my hobby going there.I'd hate to have somebody tell me it's bad, but it's not a system that is geared for people who are struggling. There are just a ton of people all over the world who are struggling. They're better off than they were 100 years ago, but they're still struggling. I do worry that the kind of regulations, and rules, and ideas that we put into place to try and make agriculture more like this picture that we have in our head will end up inadvertently causing suffering for the people who are struggling.To make sure everybody can get fed in the future, do we need a lot more innovation?Innovation is always good. I would say that we do, and the kinds of innovation we need are not often what people imagine. For example, it's pretty clear that parts of the world are getting drier, and therefore irrigation is getting more difficult. The American Southwest is a primary candidate, and you go to the Safford Valley, which I did a few years ago — the Safford Valley is in southeast Arizona and it's hotter than hell there. I went there and it's 106 degrees and there's water from the Colorado River, 800 miles away, being channeled there, and they're growing Pima cotton. Pima cotton is this very good fine cotton that they use to make fancy clothes, and it's a great cash crop for farmers, but growing it involves channeling water from the Colorado 800 miles, and then they grow it by what's called flood irrigation, which is where you just fill the field with an inch of water. I was there actually to see an archeologist who's a water engineer, and I said to him, “Gee, it's hot! How much that water is evaporated?” And he said, “Oh, all of it.”So we need to think about that kind of thing if the Colorado is going to run out of water, which it is now. There's ways you can do it, you can possibly genetically modify cotton to use less water. You could drip irrigation, which is a much more efficient form of irrigation, it's readily available, but it's expensive. So you could try to help farmers do that. I think if you cut the soft costs, which is called the regulatory costs of farming, you might be able to pay for it in that way. That would be one type of innovation. Another type of thing you could do is to do a different kind of farming which is called civil pastoral systems, where you grow tree crops and then you grow cattle underneath, and that uses dramatically less water. It's being done in Sonora, just across the border and the tree crops — trees are basically wild. People don't breed them because it takes so long, but we now have the tools to breed them, and so you could make highly productive trees with cattle underneath and have a system that produces a lot of calories or a lot of good stuff. That's all the different kinds of innovation that we could do. Just some of the different kinds of innovation we could do and all would help.Indigenous America (25:20)Part of the reason I wrote these things is that I realized it's really interesting and I didn't learn anything about it in school.Great articles in The New Atlantis, big fan of “Wizard and the Prophet,” but I'm going to take one minute and ask you about your great books talking about the story of the indigenous peoples of the Americas. If I just want to travel in the United States and I'm interested in finding out more about Native Americans in the United States, where would you tell me to go?One of my favorite places just it's so amazing, is Chaco Canyon, and that's in the Four Corners area — that whole Four Corners area is quite incredible — and Chaco Canyon is a sign that native people could build amazing stuff, and native people could be crazy, in my opinion. It's in the middle of nowhere, it has no water, and for reasons that are probably spiritual and religious, they built an enormous number of essentially castles in this canyon, and they're incredible.The biggest one, Pueblo Bonito as it's called now, it's like 800 rooms. They're just enormous. And you can go there, and you can see these places, and you can just walk around, and it is incredible. You drive up a little bit to Mesa Verde and there's hundreds of these incredible cliff dwellings. What seems to have happened — I'm going to put this really informally and kind of jokingly to you, not the way that an archeologist would talk about it or I would write about it, but what looks like it happened is that the Chaco Canyon is this big canyon, and on the good side that gets the southern exposure is all these big houses. And then the minions and the hoi polloi lived on the other side, and it looks like, around 800, 900, they just got really tired of serving the kings and they had something like a democratic revolution, and they just left, most of them, and founded the Pueblos, which is these intensely democratic self-governing bodies that are kind of like what Thomas Jefferson thought the United States should be.Then it's like all the doctors, and the lawyers, and the MBAs, and the rich guys went up to Mesa Verde and they started off their own little kingdoms and they all fought with each other. So you have these crazy cliff dwellings where it's impossible to get in and there's hundreds of people living in these niches in these cliffs, and then that blew up too. So you could see history, democracy, and really great architecture all in one place.If someone asked me for my advice about changing the curriculum in school, one, people would leave school knowing who the heroes of progress and heroes of the Agricultural Revolution were. And I think they'd also know a lot more about pre-Columbian history of the Americas. I think they should know about it but I also think it's just super interesting, though of course you've brought it to life in a beautiful way.Thank you very much, and I couldn't agree with you more. Part of the reason I wrote these things is that I realized it's really interesting and I didn't learn anything about it in school.On sale everywhere The Conservative Futurist: How To Create the Sci-Fi World We Were PromisedFaster, Please! is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. 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Keith discusses the impact of baby boomers on the housing market, noting that contrary to popular belief, many boomers are choosing to age in place. He also addresses the negative effects of gambling, particularly sports gambling, on young men, including financial ruin and increased bankruptcies. 54% of baby boomers state that they will never sell their homes.  People aged 55+ own more than half of U.S. homes. The overall population growth in the US has grown at its fastest rate since 2001, reaching over 340 million. Millennials and Gen Z, the largest generations, are driving future housing demand.  Resources: GRE Free Investment Coaching:GREmarketplace.com/Coach Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/541 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai    Keith Weinhold  0:01   Welcome to GRE. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. All the baby boomers are about to sell off their homes and downsize, unleashing a glut of supply onto the market, and housing prices crash. Is there cogency to that theory or not? I give you a definitive answer, the Trump bump, then later, a pernicious vice is destroying more people's lives today, especially young men and almost no one is talking about this. It's leading to lower credit scores, more bankruptcies and even more suicides today on get rich education   since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com.   Corey Coates  1:25   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  1:41   Welcome to GRE from Hyannis, Massachusetts to Hiram, Utah and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are inside get rich education episode 541 just another slack jawed and snaggletoothed podcaster here now a popular, I suppose, media narrative that's been out there for a long time is this premise that US housing prices are going to crash hard because all the aging baby boomers are going to sell their homes, and Boomers are the biggest generation in all of American history. This is just going to magnify the price collapse. It means far more home sellers than buyers. So soon enough, sellers will have to keep cutting prices. Everyone's going to undercut everybody to compete with all of these for sale homes. So as a result, everybody's property values are going to collapse today. Let's look at how bad it will get. Should you get ahead of this and sell it all now and then? I'll even tell you when this popular narrative will supposedly happen with boomers selling en masse, or won't it happen at all. That's what we're looking at, the term silver tsunami. You've probably heard that thrown around in the real estate world. It actually refers to pent up housing stock that older homeowners will eventually choose to sell, which would have that effect of flooding the market with all this new inventory. All right. Now let's define what we're talking about here. Baby Boomers are the generation born just after World War Two, between 1946 and 64 that makes them between the ages of 61 and 79 this year. Okay, so basically, these people are in their 60s and 70s. That's their age. My parents are baby boomers. President Trump is at the upper age limit for a boomer, but they're not all as old as you think. I mean the youngest baby boomers include Michelle Obama, Sandra Bullock and Rob Lowe. So not all boomers are like super old, but see, it is a big generation of over 76 million people. So whatever they do really moves the economy. And maybe you've heard it been said, My gosh, what if we have more dyers than buyers? But now a more nascent trend is that you hear about more and more boomers and people older than boomers not selling their home instead wanting to age in place. And that just means they want to stay in their home and not go to a nursing home or assisted living. And that was recently quantified in a survey that Housing Wire reported on it found that 54% of baby boomers say that they'll never sell their homes, some of them passing homes along as inheritance and see often that's because their home is paid off and assisted living care costs are through. To the roof, more than half of boomers don't have any mortgage at all. All right, so we've established that boomers aren't as old as most people think, and then a lot of them aren't planning to sell. But still, let's look for trouble here, because boomers are a huge group, and some portion of them are going to sell is they age, even if a lot of them say that they won't. How about the almost half of boomers with a mortgage? You know what? Here's the thing, if they downsized, like older people have traditionally done. I mean, my grandparents downsized long ago. But do you know what would happen if boomers downsized? Today? For most, their monthly mortgage payment would actually go up if they downsized. That's because of today's higher mortgage rates and home prices. And see, that's a financial reality that keeps them in place. They're never going to downsize. All right, so a lot of boomers are just not going to sell. But still, this wave of selling boomers crashing the housing market, this has been a popular narrative for, I don't know, maybe more than a decade. Now there's been a lot of smoke, so then where is the fire. That's another way to think about this. So there's got to be more to this. And there is, in fact, people age 55 plus, own more than half of the homes in the US. Did you know that? All right? Well, if we pull back from boomers, and let's just take a look at all homeowners of every age, people are staying in their homes longer, whether they're age 30 or 50 or 80, Americans now stay in the same home about 12 years. That is twice as long as 2005 Well, what that means is that homes don't come onto the market and people cannot buy what's not for sale. And then, of course, you've got the well documented interest rate lock in effect. That's a contributor here to people of all ages with 4% mortgages, they are reluctant to sell. And now what we're talking about here are demographics. Remember that quote, demography is destiny, the three word quote from 1800s era French philosopher Auguste Comte, and that's because it's completely predictable. If you're 32 years old today, in 10 years, you'll be 42 totally predictable. All right, if demographics could possibly crash housing crisis, let's step back and see what's going on with overall US, population growth. You know what? It just grew at its fastest rate since 2001 about a full 1% growth last year, yeah, we broke the 340 million population mark for the first time ever. And now, what about the portion that our immigrants, and what if a substantial amount of them get deported? I mean, after Trump settled into the White House for his second term, deportations began almost immediately. Is there enough population growth to buy from the boomers that do sell their homes? Well, if mortgage rates come down into the low fives, then maybe more boomers will sell and bring some more resale inventory onto the market. See, you need a good chunk, though, of buyers to come in from somewhere in order to support future housing prices. Well, where are those buyers going to be? Well, some people still don't realize that the largest generation in American history is, in fact, not baby boomers, it's millennials. They became the biggest group more than five years ago. In fact, Statista tells us that Gen Z isn't far behind them either. Yeah, Gen Z is almost as big as millennials as a group coming right behind them. And of course, this varies a little bit. Demographers parse the generations somewhat differently, but here's what the rise of the biggest generation means, millennials. They're aged 29 to 44 now, and there are over 70 million of them, and then almost as big the next group right behind them, Gen Z. They're ages 13 to 28 they alone number about 70 million themselves, even if you just completely leave the surge in immigration out of the picture and all the additional housing demand that immigration brings. So we're mainly just looking at the domestic side alone here. So. What's happened is that there were 4 million plus births per year from 1990 to 2010 providing a tailwind for housing demand through 2035, 2045, or later. Yeah, we had more births during many of those years than we did in the peak of the baby boom, which was 1957 like I've mentioned on the show before, the average age of a first time homebuyer is now a record high of 38 years old, per the NAR it's really taken a long time for some people to stop playing the video games and moving out of their parents basement. Okay, well, the peak birth year for the US was 2007 I just told you it was elevated between 1990 and 2010 but 2007 was that peak, alright? So take that peak and add 38 years to it, and you know what? The first time homebuyer demand is just going to continue to build, build, build, and not even reach its peak. Then until 2045 or so, the peak birth year 2007 plus 38 years, that is where the crush of future demand is coming from because that person born in 2007 on average, they're not even going to buy their first home until well into the 2040s   In fact, the number of Americans turning 35 every single year is High, and it just keeps increasing. It's over 4 million now, already up 25% since 2011 and this number of Americans turning 35 is going to keep rising for another decade or two. In fact, this year, it's going to approach 5 million Americans turning 35 new record territory coming. And I keep bringing this up because 35 is a key age, because by that time, almost everyone has moved out of their parents home, and so that's the time where people either need to rent or own themselves, pushing up both rents and prices, and that's why this wave of demand and pent up demand is just gonna keep coming. And by the way, those stats that I gave you there, they're all sourced from the US Census Bureau. I mean, this is exactly where the housing demand just keeps coming from. It's a big factor about why prices keep going up. The demand just keeps piling on, even though affordability worsened, the demand just keeps coming. And it's just going to keep on coming well in to the 2040s now it could very well ebb substantially by, say, the middle of the 2050s but we'll see, and that is still three decades away. And remember, all of this doesn't even include the additional population growth from immigration and how many non deportees that is going to add to the housing demand on top of this, and then, if that's not enough, there is even more future housing demand expected to come from the declining number of occupants per household. Yes, the reduced household size that Stokes housing demand. I touched on this with you a little before on a prior show. But let me go deeper as we continue to corrode this more dyers than buyers. Theory, as we break this down, people have smaller families today. I think everybody knows that back in 1960 there were 3.3 occupants per household. Today, it's just two and a half. And to give you a simple example of how this itself keeps stoking the housing demand, just say that there's a village of 100 people with three occupants per household, they would need 33 and 1/3 homes over time, when that drops to two occupants per household, that's the direction we're going now that same village needs 50 homes just in order to accommodate the shift in household structure. Well, 50 homes is 50% more than 33 and a third, well, that means 50% more homes are needed, and that's even in a scenario where the population stays the same. Yet it's not staying the same, it's rising, and the population is really rising fast for that key household form. Population age range of 35 to 38 years old. Fewer Americans are living together. I expect the housing market to continue shifting toward smaller household counts. One person households will keep rising. I expect that to be one of the most impactful housing trends of this entire 21st century, and it's also really helping fuel a loneliness epidemic, which is another subject unto itself. Well, the three main drivers of this rise in single person households is that first people are delaying those major life events compared to previous generations. They're attending school longer. They're marrying later. They're buying homes later. They're having children later. And as these events are postponed, the time some young adults spend living alone or without children increases. They're playing video games longer as well. The second driver of these single person households is falling. Birth rates when people have children, many are having fewer than previous generations, reducing the average household size. That's pretty obvious. And then third the population composition is getting older. And older, people tend to live with fewer people. If life expectancy rises, this component of the trend would only intensify. Yes, the whole Brian Johnson thing, he is the health influencer that says we now have alive, the first generation that's going to live forever due to advances in longevity in technology. I mean, my gosh, if he is right, what would that do to housing demand? I mean, and it would also push up our average age even more. Gosh, yet, at the same time that all this demand keeps pushing up. America already has a well publicized overall housing shortage of several million housing units. You already know that story well, construction has picked up a little, but not enough to keep up with demand. In fact, American housing supply is still about 30% below pre pandemic levels. So suffice to say, let me give you a satisfying definitive answer here, when are selling boomers going to crash housing prices? It is highly unlikely that that can even happen at all. In fact, you see fewer stories about this than you used to. More people have come to realize that it is just not happening. And looking at us demographics over the next few cycles, a lot more people will need homes demand continuing to exceed supply. This is why home prices should just keep rising from here. In fact, I have been an active single family rental property investor here myself, single family is where perhaps the greatest shortage is and the greatest demand is at the same time I am owning something that people are definitely going to need more of. Remember, demography is destiny, and they're going to pay more and more for it. When mortgage rates fall, it's probably going to bring in even more buying activity, and now all of this continued upward, long term, future price momentum for housing, of course, that all existed before Donald John Trump step into the White House to start his second term last month. I think the Trump factor, or Trump bump, you know what often gets somewhat exaggerated for what it can do to the economy and housing prices, right? I mean, I've talked to you before, it's about the decisions that you make more so than decisions that a politician makes, but Trump is doing some things on a pretty seismic level these nascent immigrant deportations, that obviously can increase the cost of labor you're exporting away your low cost labor with immigrant deportations. I mean, that is inflation tariffs, though some tariffs have been negotiated away for the time being, that's more inflation. So deportations mean wage increases. That's more inflation. Increased wages mean increased rents. Trump talks lower taxes. Lower taxes can then mean higher rent payments. Proposals to eliminate. Made taxes on tips over time and Social Security, that means that Americans and retirees are gonna have more disposable income. More income means higher rent collections, fewer delinquencies, and potentially rising home prices as affordability improves. That's a lot of the good news. It's not all rosy news. You better look out for high tax states salt adjustments that state and local income tax and a deduction cap could harm their property values. We're talking about places like California, New York and New Jersey, the 2017 Trump tax cuts and Jobs Act that gave real estate investors some really juicy benefits, like 20% pass through deduction for LLCs and bonus depreciation on rental properties and lower corporate tax rates too. Combined this stuff, it all keeps more money in your pocket and allows for bigger deals with better cash flow.    We're talking about Trump bump factors on the real estate market here, other proposals on the table, other things like tax breaks for domestic production that could boost us construction, leading to more badly needed housing supply that could lower building costs and investment opportunities in niche in growth markets. Remember opportunity zones, and then what about targeting wealthy investors? We'll see what happens, but Trump's plan removes tax breaks for hedge funds and billionaire sports owners. But could real estate investors get hurt a little on that side too? Maybe look for changes to the 1031 or depreciation strategies. But you know, the 1031 exchange has been around for over 100 years. I would be surprised if it went away completely, and yes, though they have been postponed, if 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada do go into place and the countries retaliate, as they've been shown to do, it would add point seven 6% to US inflation and subtract 410 of a percent from US GDP growth. Aren't those two projections Interesting? Yeah, those estimates were compiled by the Yale budget lab. So adding about three quarters of a percentage point to the overall inflation rate with these tariffs. I mean everything we're talking about the price of your housing or your car tires or your tomatoes and romaine lettuce. I mean, that effect could take money out of people's pockets. Yes, we know that Trump wants to bring down interest rates, but I don't know how he's going to do that. I mean, as you know, more inflation correlates with higher rates, not lower ones. See, you just can't get it all. You just can't have it all. And of course, mortgage rates are not historically high. They've simply been normalized after years of being artificially low. Rates are normal. So normalized is really a term that I like to use. So really, to help summarize what I've shared with you here in the first half of the show, a housing price crash induced by a boomer sell off is not a thing. In fact, almost Oppositely, demographics in this pent up demand should raise up future home prices, and to a lesser extent, a Trump bump can as well. Yes, gosh, Trump just has an insatiable fascination for tariffs. It is truly amazing, and it has more stick to itiveness than say, Mark Zuckerberg, recent fascination with masculine energy and gold chains, that's for sure.   Hey, before we get into the pernicious vice that's destroying more people's lives today, especially young men and almost no one is talking about this, it's leading to lower credit scores, more bankruptcies and even more suicides. First, I've got some cool things to tell you. About two weeks ago here on the show event, host Robert Helms of the real estate guys and I invited you to join us on the terrific Investor Summit at sea, that cruise on the Caribbean. Besides the two of us, there are a number of other great faculty members. Robert Kiyosaki recently announced that he's going to be joining us on the faculty as well. So you'll get to meet and learn from Robert Kiyosaki, and if you happen to be a new listener, he is the top selling personal finance author of all time the. Rich Dad, Poor Dad, author, and he's been our guest here on the GRE podcast four times. Now, I hope to meet you, the listener, in person on the summit at sea in the Caribbean this June, starting out of Miami. Gosh, what an outstanding time that is. It's not a low cost event, however, the minimum cabin in interior cabin is $5,900 and they are more expensive from there if you get nicer accommodations. But all the details are there on GRE podcast episode 539 two weeks ago. I really hope you'll join us and then I can meet you in person.   Earlier this month, Trump established a US sovereign wealth fund, and when he did, I congratulated our frequent contributor here, macro economist Richard Duncan, because Richard championed the establishment of that fund for years. He presented to Congress about it, and Richard was the first ever GRE guest with us back here in 2014 on the Panama coffee farm investing that we've discussed here on the show, Villanova University reached out to them, and they're now collaborating together. It's something I find kind of cool, as a Pennsylvania native and one of my tightest best friends is also a Villanova alum, as for future episodes coming up on the show. Here, imagine if you had a property loan, yet you didn't have to make any payments, and if you did make payments on your loan, then every penny of that payment goes to principal, not to interest. Wouldn't that be incredible? Well, such a thing does exist, and it's not new or experimental or avant garde. People just don't know about this vehicle. We're going to discuss that right here on next week's show, along with some other vital mortgage topics. There are three ways to connect with our education at GRE you're listening to one of them right now, our flagship podcast. Also check out our get rich education YouTube channel, because that is different content than this show. That's the second way, and that show is also on other video first, platforms like get rich education on rumble, and finally, you'll have it all, all three when you get our weekly Don't quit your Daydream newsletter if you don't already get it free now, while it's on your mind, simply text GRE 266, 86, more. Next. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get rich education.    Hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine, at Ridge lending group NMLS 420056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties, they help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start Now while it's on your mind at Ridge lendinggroup.com that's Ridge lendinggroup.com    Oh geez, the initial average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings, so your bank is getting rich off of you. You've got to earn way more, or else you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk, your cash generates up to a 10% return and compounds year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25k you keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back. Their decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And you know how I'd know, because I'm an investor in this myself, earn 10% like me and GRE listeners are. Text family to 66866, to learn about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text family to 66866.   Robert Kiyosaki  29:31   this is our rich dad Poor Dad. Author Robert Kiyosaki, listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold and Don't Quit Your Daydream.   Keith Weinhold  29:50   Welcome back to get rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, every once in a while, there's an investing adjacent activity that becomes. Is pronounced or become such a trend that it just can't be ignored, and you need to know about it. I recently presented on how gambling is financially derailing so many people today, especially young men and sports gambling and what makes California and Texas special here, the two most populous states, by the way, you'll see, once they legalize this, it's gonna get worse. There are two states where it's not legal yet now investing in gambling. They are two distinctly different activities. Investing is different from gambling. When you invest, you're purchasing a stake in an asset that has value in an effort to generate profit. But gambling doesn't involve taking ownership of anything of value. Instead, betters are predicting the outcome of an event gambling. It's really not a side hustle. I mean, people are constantly losing their families and businesses over this. This will be all new material here on the show as usual, except for a short snippet that includes super CPA Tom Wheelwright. This is about 10 minutes in length. Shout out to the media team here at GRE on the production side. And then after this, I have more to tell you about real estate.    Speaker 1  31:30   America is in the midst of an historic surge in legalized gambling.   Keith Weinhold  31:37   This is the worst thing that people are now doing with their time and money today, it's not losing it to inflation, it's not playing video games. It's being a slack jawed gambling degenerate. We are in the midst of an historic surge in legalized gambling, and the devastation on gamblers, especially young men is a lot worse than you think. I've also got a giant ominous warning for you that seasoned gamblers don't even know about when I bring in my CPA for just a minute here today on the seriously punishing tax implications that should scare anybody out of gambling.    Hi, I'm Keith Weinhold, get rich education, founder, Forbes real estate council member, best selling, author, and long time real estate investor. Almost 60% of 18 to 24 year olds have placed at least one sports bet now that's per the NCAA, and that has surged so fast. I mean, just less than a decade ago, major pro sports leagues shunned gambling, disassociating with it because it was illegal in most places. The big turning point was 2018 that's when the Supreme Court ended a decades long ban on commercialized sports betting. 38 states and DC have now legalized it most with minimum age requirements set at 21 and the two biggest platforms are DraftKings and fam duel. They've got about 70% of the market. But look, you can do this if you're under 21 on platforms like prize picks and flip they offer betting like experiences. They operate under fantasy sports or sweepstakes, and having these apps on your phone that just brings the gambling right to you. It keeps it in your face and addictive. Now it's like you're sitting in a casino when you're on your living room so far, or in your bed or even in the bathroom, there is no escape. Two thirds of Americans live in a state where they can access it on their phones. And look how young some of these gamblers are, what they have to say. And then who's showing up in these gamblers Anonymous meetings   Speaker 1  33:56   today's world is the 16, 1718, year olds, 1921, year olds that get addicted years ago, before, unlike casinos, if we had a person coming in and they're 24 years old, it was rare. All right, now the norm, the real norm, it's kids coming in at 17 years old. That's the norm.    Keith Weinhold  34:16   Well, one big reason why it's such a problem is, look, you can't hide it, so that therefore others can't tell if you're gambling, because you're not, you know, shooting it into your veins, or you're not acting drunk, or you're not smoking anything. See, you can gamble without exhibiting a physical change, so therefore others don't know that you need help. And it is all over the place. I mean, gambling ads air on TV over 60,000 times a year. Celebrities endorse gambling. I mean, some teams put gambling ads right on the field. Brick and mortar sports books are even built inside some stadiums now, Caesars and bet MGM. There are two other big platforms that you might see out there, but I mean, in their commercials, yeah, they can put that one 800 gambler help number on screen and tell you things like, gamble within your limits. But look, here's the thing these platforms, they're not going to cut you off if you continue to lose and they profit. In fact, if you win disproportionately big time after time, and these platforms can kind of tell that you're too smart. You know what they do, like a casino that identifies a card shark in Vegas, they're either gonna curtail your activity or just totally cut you off, alright? So then, by definition, if you have an account in good standing at FanDuel or DraftKings, and you bet a lot, and they keep letting you play well, then you have just signaled to the entire world that you don't know what you're doing, and you are going to lose big, or you already have. I mean, that is baked into the cake. That's how the system works. So therefore these companies are basically mining America to find anyone stupid enough to keep placing these sports bets. Companies are profiting from this, and then states are too. I mean, they've collected billions in tax revenue and FanDuel and DraftKings, see, they're publicly traded companies, so this means that they have shareholders, and those shareholders, they want to see profit and growth. I recently asked decorated CPA and mega popular tax author Tom Wheelwright about tax rates on gambling for just a quick three minutes here. I mean, you won't believe how punishing This is.    Can you tell us about sports gambling taxes and how it's treated   Tom Wheelwright  36:43   yeah. So remember, all income is taxable. So that includes gambling winnings. They are taxable. In fact, you'll get a 1099 just like you would if you rendered services, you know, you'd get a 1099 right? Or you have interest income, you get 1099 you get 1099 from gambling. What you actually have to show is that you actually have gambling losses. So you have to track those gambling losses to show the IRS that you've got gambling losses. But your gambling losses can never be more than your gambling winnings. In other words, you don't you never get to generate a tax loss on gambling. So that means is, is that if you win $10,000 during the year, and you can prove that you lost $8,000 during the year, you're gonna be taxed on $2,000 but if you can't prove the 8000 you're gonna be taxed on 10,000 Yeah,   Keith Weinhold  37:39   so you the gambler have the burden of tracking this, and I guess tracking your losses. I'm not a gambler. How would one track their losses?   Tom Wheelwright  37:47   Oh, I would keep a detailed ledger. Personally, I'd probably have a separate bank account just for gambling. Gosh, that's the way I would do it. I'm not a gambler either. So by the way, it's also a good way to budget your gambling so they, you know, get in trouble, right? So just set up a separate bank account, put whatever money you say, I'm comfortable with this money, I'm going to gamble with this money, put in that bank account, and then you have a ledger that shows the money that went in and the money you lost, the money you won, and don't do anything but gambling in that bank account.   Keith Weinhold  38:18   Hey, that separate account's a great way to hide it from your spouse, not that I'm suggesting.   Tom Wheelwright  38:25   Well, interesting. You went there.   Keith Weinhold  38:29   I'm not a gambler at all. Can't even believe I was thinking that far ahead. What are the gambling tax rates like? They're ordinary   Tom Wheelwright  38:35   income tax rates. So gambling winnings are just ordinary income they're they're the same as your wages. They don't have social security taxes their income, just like any other kind of income, nothing special, okay?   Keith Weinhold  38:47   And this all applies to whether it's sports gambling or general gambling, like lotteries and sweepstakes.    Tom Wheelwright  38:53   Just remember, all incomes taxable unless the government says it isn't all income, okay? And then there's some types of income that are taxed at special rates, like capital gains, but gambling has no special rate, so it's just your ordinary income rates.   Keith Weinhold  39:09   Gosh, to me, it seems like it's, it's hard to break even with gambling over time, and then when you take the tax adjusted earnings that you get from it, you know, over the long term, you know, I just don't think Harris and Bally's Casino is really incentivized to inform gamblers on how punitive this can be with ordinary income tax rates applied to gambling winnings.   Tom Wheelwright  39:30   No, but they will send you your 1090, 9g I guarantee that.   Keith Weinhold  39:34    So can you imagine tracking all that and then paying all that in tax, and this is even if you're on the winning side and then keeping a separate bank account as well. And note that Tom and I were talking federal. There. It gets even worse. Some state laws are punishing, like New York, which has a 51% tax rate on mobile sports wagering bank. Up 28% since states have legalized this and credit scores have dropped now, California and Texas are the two big states, and they still haven't legalized sports gambling. They're the two big ones, and when they do, that's when you'll see more bankruptcy and more people, especially young men in financial ruin. I mean gamblers, Anonymous meetings are filled with people hooked on betting and on stock options trading too, and you know, Worse still, among addiction disorders, gambling has a comparatively high suicide attempt rate. And you know, understand that, while both involve risk, investing in gambling are two different things. When you invest, you're purchasing a stake in an asset that has value in an effort to generate profit. But gambling doesn't involve taking ownership of anything with value. Instead, betters are predicting the outcome of an event. Now, I gambled as a teen on sports, and back then, it was just a friend and I, we would each lay a $20 bill on top of the television at the start of like a Mets versus Phillies baseball game, and then it sure made the game more interesting to watch. There wasn't any sort of app to make it easy, suck me in and make it a recurrent practice. I haven't gambled since. Now that you're aware of the gravity of the problem, the best thing you can do for yourself is to delete those apps off your phone. Because look, I mean every gambler that had their lies flipped over and turned catastrophic at one time, they told themselves, you know, I'm doing this, but it's under control. I mean, everybody once said that the best thing you can do is delete FanDuel DraftKings and any other apps like that off of your phone right now and vow to never do it again. I hope you like that. You know, it's sort of interesting and introspective to me that I would produce a piece of media like this because I am a sports fan. I watched more of the NFL this past season than I have in a while. You know, I'm in a phase of my life, or I'm a pretty productive person, doing research and interviewing guests and producing GRE media. But you know, I justified watching more sports lately because there's room for an entertainment bucket in everyone's life. That's how I feel. And you know, I don't really watch movies. Most movies I watch feel like a waste of my time when I'm done after two hours, because I'm usually disappointed in it. If I ever watch movies, I gotta watch movies on the plane, because even if it was lousy, I got somewhere in the process. So in any case, now, if gambling is controlled, well, then it might be debatable about whether or not it's a vice, like, say you go to Vegas and have your $250 spending limit or whatever.    But just remember, every gambling degenerate once told themselves and everybody that they know that they've got it under control, but yeah, often they didn't around here, we champion owning real estate directly yourself, that is something that is in your control. So we're not talking about REITs, Real Estate Investment Trusts. That's just a publicly owned company and a group of them. It's not real estate tokenization. That means owning digital fractional shares of a property or a real estate investment. I mean direct whole ownership also means it's not a syndication now that might be worth doing, though, that means that you're pooling other investors money. It's not direct whole investing. If you are investing in someone else's syndication, meaning that you're a limited partner and direct real estate investing, it means not being a flipper or a wholesaler. Again, those things might be worth doing, but they're really time consuming, and they're not tax advantaged either. But when you own rental real estate directly yourself, you don't even need to be a landlord. If you choose not to you, then will not be that point of contact for your tenants when others manage it. And yes, because of the five ways that you're paid, you can make the case that real estate has hegemony over other assets, and for the demographic reasons and the inflationary reasons, like the ones that I told you about earlier today, real estate appears poised to continue as the. Hegemon. In fact, recently, so many global hedge funds have dumped every stock that they have, except for the real estate stocks. I shared that article with you in our newsletter recently. That's largely a tariff response. Let me tell you about real properties on GRE marketplace right now that are ripe for owning directly. I mean direct ownership. That's also the easiest to understand. You are paid rent by a tenant that lives there, often through your property manager, and unlike the out of control sports gambler, this is very much in your control. A brand new build single family rental in Columbiana, Alabama, that's just south of Birmingham. Rent is $1,925 the price is $269,900 over 1600 square feet, four, bed, two bath. Now with the new build, expect low maintenance costs. Is currently vacant, get an interest rate of six and three quarters percent with a 25% down payment on this new build, single family rental in Alabama. Then another sample here. This is interesting. The rent on this old build Davenport Iowa duplex is $1,900 which is about the same rent as the Alabama single family rental I just described. But yet the price for this Davenport duplex is just $183,000 Davenport is part of America's Quad Cities with a combined population of about half a million with both duplex sides. It's a combined square footage of almost 2700 square feet, five, bed, two, bath. They're on Brown Street in Davenport, and now, as favorable as those $1,900 combined duplex rents are, since this property is vintage, in fact, it's over 100 years old, you better check closely on the renovations that were made to the property and have plenty set aside for any maintenance and repairs as well, with a 25% down payment, expect an interest rate of just six and one quarter percent. And there are more financing details there. And of course, rates are always changing. The last one I'll mention is this new build, another duplex, this one in Inverness, Florida. This is really interesting too. And now, what do you think when you think of Florida, real estate? Does climate change come to mind? For some people, it does. For some it doesn't, maybe even rising sea levels over the long term. Well, Inverness, Florida is 15 to 20 miles inland, and it's 50 feet above sea level. How about high insurance rates? Does that come to mind with Florida? Well, they're not so high on new build properties, since they're built to today's stringent hurricane standards. Is Florida temporarily over built, even though the nation, in aggregate is under built? Yes, some Florida markets are overbuilt, and that's how you could potentially snag a deal and get this with 25% down, you can get an interest rate as low as four and three quarter percent, yes, and that's showing with zero buyer paid discount points, the combined rent from both sides of this new build Inverness duplex is estimated at $2,830 of course, often you need to estimate a rent range or make an estimate on the projected rent for new builds, because often they're not occupied yet, since they were just built, sales price of just a touch under 420k on the Inverness duplex, and as just one of the five ways you're paid the cash on cash return is projected at 5% yes, your return goes up into the positive cash flow zone when your mortgage rate is as low as four and three quarters percent. I mean, that is really attractive. It also comes with a year of free property management. So there you go, a new build single family rental in Alabama, an old duplex in Davenport, Iowa, and a new build duplex with just killer incentives in Inverness, Florida, and that's just the sampling of real estate pays five ways type of properties. We either help you get started or continue on your path to financial freedom and help you do that. With our completely free investment coaching, we work with you to help you with these properties or others like them or none at all, if it's not in your best interest to invest now at GRE marketplace.com All you need to do to get started from GRE marketplace.com is click on the coaching area and you can get on the calendar for a free strategy session until next week, I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.   Speaker 2  50:35   Nothing on this show should be considered specific personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively, Chris,   Keith Weinhold  51:03   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, getricheducation.com  

UCT Demographers highlight serious concerns with 2022 census data by Radio Islam

If you're reading the headlines, or the chatter on social media, it would be easy to conclude that for Jews in the Diaspora, it's little different than 1930s Germany: Brownshirts are on the move, and antisemites under every rock. But fortunately, that's not the truth at all, at least in Canada, according to a new study which examined recent data around antisemitism, and found - perhaps surprisingly - very positive results. While there has been a marked increase in antisemitic incidents, primarily graffiti and the like, the attitudes of Canadians towards Jews remains almost unchanged since October 7, with only a miniscule percentage of Canadians expressing anti-Jewish views. In this week's podcast, we sit down with Professor Robert Brym, one of Canada's leading sociologists and demographers studying the Canadian Jewish community, to discuss his new study which evaluated Canadian attitudes towards Jews and Israel, finding that anti-Jewish incidents emanate from a tiny proportion of society, and that overwhelmingly, Canadians do not embrace such hatred. Brym's study does not preclude the need to combat anti-Jewish hatred in society, but as he explains in the podcast, it should help to focus the Jewish community's energies. Welcome to The Honest Report podcast. --- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thehonestreport/message

Don Feder is a writer, researcher and columnist. He is a graduate of the Boston University College of Liberal Arts and the Boston University Law School. He was admitted to the practice of law in New York and Massachusetts. He was a Boston Herald editorial writer and syndicated columnist for 19 years. Since November of 2021, he has been a staff writer for the Washington Times. He has been a communications consultant, writer and conference organizer for various pro-life and pro-family NGO's. He is the recipient of numerous awards.--In Genesis 1 we see the handiwork of God in creation. He created man in his own image. He created male and female. In Genesis 1-28 it says, -And God blessed them, and God said unto them, Be fruitful, and multiply, and replenish the earth, and subdue it- and have dominion over the fish of the sea, and over the fowl of the air, and over every living thing that moveth upon the earth.- We see Adam and Eve having Abel, then Cain, and then Seth. In Genesis 5-4 we read that Adam and Eve begat sons and daughters. This carried on person after person. You can read the genealogy in Genesis 5.--However, there is a growing problem. It's not that we have too great a population, but rather that worldwide fertility is declining. It's being reported that every industrialized nation today has fertility rates under replacement levels. Our guest today has indicated that we are heading for a demographic train wreck, which he is terming a -demographic winter.- Demographers and governments know about it, but no one can figure out what to do about it.

Don Feder is a writer, researcher and columnist. He is a graduate of the Boston University College of Liberal Arts and the Boston University Law School. He was admitted to the practice of law in New York and Massachusetts. He was a Boston Herald editorial writer and syndicated columnist for 19 years. Since November of 2021, he has been a staff writer for the Washington Times. He has been a communications consultant, writer and conference organizer for various pro-life and pro-family NGO's. He is the recipient of numerous awards.--In Genesis 1 we see the handiwork of God in creation. He created man in his own image. He created male and female. In Genesis 1-28 it says, -And God blessed them, and God said unto them, Be fruitful, and multiply, and replenish the earth, and subdue it- and have dominion over the fish of the sea, and over the fowl of the air, and over every living thing that moveth upon the earth.- We see Adam and Eve having Abel, then Cain, and then Seth. In Genesis 5-4 we read that Adam and Eve begat sons and daughters. This carried on person after person. You can read the genealogy in Genesis 5.--However, there is a growing problem. It's not that we have too great a population, but rather that worldwide fertility is declining. It's being reported that every industrialized nation today has fertility rates under replacement levels. Our guest today has indicated that we are heading for a demographic train wreck, which he is terming a -demographic winter.- Demographers and governments know about it, but no one can figure out what to do about it.

Don Feder is a writer, researcher and columnist. He is a graduate of the Boston University College of Liberal Arts and the Boston University Law School. He was admitted to the practice of law in New York and Massachusetts. He was a Boston Herald editorial writer and syndicated columnist for 19 years. Since November of 2021, he has been a staff writer for the Washington Times. He has been a communications consultant, writer and conference organizer for various pro-life and pro-family NGO's. He is the recipient of numerous awards.--In Genesis 1 we see the handiwork of God in creation. He created man in his own image. He created male and female. In Genesis 1-28 it says, -And God blessed them, and God said unto them, Be fruitful, and multiply, and replenish the earth, and subdue it- and have dominion over the fish of the sea, and over the fowl of the air, and over every living thing that moveth upon the earth.- We see Adam and Eve having Abel, then Cain, and then Seth. In Genesis 5-4 we read that Adam and Eve begat sons and daughters. This carried on person after person. You can read the genealogy in Genesis 5.--However, there is a growing problem. It's not that we have too great a population, but rather that worldwide fertility is declining. It's being reported that every industrialized nation today has fertility rates under replacement levels. Our guest today has indicated that we are heading for a demographic train wreck, which he is terming a -demographic winter.- Demographers and governments know about it, but no one can figure out what to do about it.

Don Feder is a writer, researcher and columnist. He is a graduate of the Boston University College of Liberal Arts and the Boston University Law School. He was admitted to the practice of law in New York and Massachusetts. He was a Boston Herald editorial writer and syndicated columnist for 19 years. Since November of 2021, he has been a staff writer for the Washington Times. He has been a communications consultant, writer and conference organizer for various pro-life and pro-family NGO's. He is the recipient of numerous awards.In Genesis 1 we see the handiwork of God in creation. He created man in his own image. He created male and female. In Genesis 1:28 it says, "And God blessed them, and God said unto them, Be fruitful, and multiply, and replenish the earth, and subdue it: and have dominion over the fish of the sea, and over the fowl of the air, and over every living thing that moveth upon the earth." We see Adam and Eve having Abel, then Cain, and then Seth. In Genesis 5:4 we read that Adam and Eve begat sons and daughters. This carried on person after person. You can read the genealogy in Genesis 5.However, there is a growing problem. It's not that we have too great a population, but rather that worldwide fertility is declining. It's being reported that every industrialized nation today has fertility rates under replacement levels. Our guest today has indicated that we are heading for a demographic train wreck, which he is terming a "demographic winter." Demographers and governments know about it, but no one can figure out what to do about it.

They are known as LATS, people who are in relationships but don't live together. Demographers call this Living Apart Together, and it's becoming a more common way of life.

The population of the world has been rising for over 200 years but some time later this century it's predicted to peak. Demographers don't know exactly when that will happen but they do know that we are already experiencing a demographic transition. Fertility rates are falling world wide. Fertility in China and India is below replacement rate. In developed countries populations are ageing; since 2013, a quarter of Japan's population has been over 65, and within the next five years Japan will be joined by Finland, Germany, Italy, and Portugal. It's easy to see ageing as a problem. After all, how will working age people fund the pensions of so many old people? But could technology massively raise productivity? Could falling populations put less stress on the planet, and offer us a world with less competition and more leisure and space? And if an older population is a problem, how to solve it? Can we encourage people to have more children? Or should rich countries let in more people? Shaun Ley is joined by a panel of experts:Jack Goldstone - Professor of Public Policy at George Mason University in Virginia, in the United States.Elma Laguna - Associate Professor of Demography and Director of the Population Institute, College of Social Sciences and Philosophy, University of the Philippines, Diliman. Frank Swiaczny - Senior Researcher at the Federal Institute for Population Research in Germany and Executive Director of the German Society for Demography.Image: An elderly man holding a walking stick. Credit: Joe Giddens/PA Wire

On the version of Hot off the Wire posted Jan. 17 at 7 a.m. CT: Medicine is en route to Gaza after Qatar and France mediated a deal between Israel and Hamas. The deal to supply both the hostages held by Hamas and Gaza residents comes more than 100 days into a conflict that shows no sign of ending. A senior Hamas official said Wednesday that for each box of medicine provided to the hostages, 1,000 boxes would be sent for use by Palestinian civilians. Gaza's Health Ministry says the Palestinian death toll from the war has surpassed 24,000 people. In Israel, around 1,200 people were killed during Hamas' Oct. 7 attack that sparked the war and saw some 250 people taken hostage by the militants. PORTLAND, Ore. (AP) — The Pacific Northwest is hunkering down after predictions of ice and freezing rain that could continue a weekend storm toll of damage and deaths. Parts of southwest Washington and western Oregon are under an ice storm warning through Wednesday morning. That includes the three largest Oregon cities, Portland, Salem and Eugene. Freezing rain is forecast in the Seattle area. Schools are closed, bus service curtailed and warming shelters open in Oregon. The forecast came as much of the United States coped with bitter weather that in some places put electricity supplies at risk. Another day of record cold temperatures swept much of the Rockies, Great Plains and Midwest on Tuesday. WASHINGTON (AP) — President Joe Biden has invited the top four congressional leaders and other lawmakers to the White House on Wednesday as members have struggled to reach agreement on aid for the Ukraine war. Republicans have insisted on pairing it with their own demands for securing the U.S. border. A bipartisan group of negotiators in the Senate have been working for weeks to find an agreement that would provide wartime money for Ukraine and Israel and also include new border policy that is strong enough to satisfy Republicans in both chambers. The talks appeared to slow last week as senators said significant disagreements remained. ATKINSON, N.H. (AP) — Donald Trump has scored a record victory in the Iowa caucuses and said Tuesday that he wants another big win in New Hampshire. Voters in the New England state get their turn Jan. 23rd to decide just how competitive the Republicans' nominating fight will be as the former president continues to dominate his party. PALMDALE, Calif. (AP) — Authorities say four men have been found dead Tuesday at a Southern California home but there's no immediate word on the cause of their deaths. Los Angeles County firefighters were sent to a home in Palmdale, a desert community north of Los Angeles, at about 4:30 p.m. Tuesday. They found four men down at the home and called sheriff's deputies. The men were pronounced dead at the scene. BEIJING (AP) — China's population fell by 2 million people in 2023 in the second straight annual decrease as births dropped and deaths jumped. The government's statistics bureau said Wednesday that the total population was 1.4 billion last year. The number of deaths rose by 690,000 to 11.1 million, more than double last year's increase. Demographers were expecting a rise in deaths in the early part of last year because of the sudden lifting of China's COVID-19 restrictions in late 2022. The number of births fell for the seventh year, reflecting a fall in the birth rate that is a long-running economic and societal challenge for China. NEW YORK (AP) — The prospect of a JetBlue-Spirit Airlines merger has taken a major hit in court. A federal judge on Tuesday sided with the Biden administration and blocked the $3.8 billion deal to combine the two carriers. The judge ruled that JetBlue's purchase of Spirit, the nation's largest low-cost airline, would harm competition — and increase prices for air travelers as a result. Meanwhile, JetBlue has maintained that it needs such a deal to compete with industry rivals. JetBlue and Spirit say they are considering whether to appeal the decision. But the ruling could also open the door for Frontier Airlines to make another attempt to buy the Florida-based Spirit. WASHINGTON (AP) — The Biden administration is expected to soon announce plans to redesignate Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen as a specially designated global terrorists. That's according to two people familiar with the White House decision and a U.S. official. The move comes as the Houthis have launched dozens of attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea. The group says it's attacked the ships in response to Israel's military operations in Gaza in the aftermath of Hamas' Oct. 7 attack on Israel. The three people familiar with the decision were not authorized to comment and requested anonymity to discuss the matter ahead of the expected formal announcement. The Red Sea attacks have already caused significant disruptions to global trade. WASHINGTON (AP) — A top Federal Reserve official said he's increasingly confident that inflation will continue falling this year back to the Fed's 2% target level, after two years of accelerating price spikes that hurt millions of American households. The official, Christopher Waller, an influential member of the Fed's Board of Governors, noted that inflation is slowing even as growth and hiring remain solid — a combination that he called “almost as good as it gets.” Waller's remarks follow recent comments from other senior Fed officials that suggest the central bank remains on track to cut its benchmark short-term interest rate this year. In December, the Fed's policymakers collectively forecast that they would cut their rate three times in 2024. DENVER (AP) — Court documents show the shooter who killed five people and endangered the lives of over 40 others at an LGBTQ+ nightclub in Colorado Springs plans to plead guilty to new federal charges. A plea agreement made public Tuesday would allow the defendant to avoid the death penalty. The documents show Anderson Aldrich made a deal to plead guilty to 50 hate crime charges and 24 firearm violations. Aldrich previously was sentenced to life in prison after pleading guilty to five state charges of murder and 46 counts of attempted murder — one for each person at Club Q during the November 2022 attack. Just three games were contested in the NBA Tuesday night and all three were high scoring, four games on the collegiate level involving top ten teams, eight games in the NHL and NFL news off the field. Also, Eagles center Jason Kelce intends to retire after 13 NFL seasons, the NBA fined Sacramento Kings coach Mike Brown $50,000 after his outburst against an official, and New York Knicks owner James Dolan faxes a lawsuit. WASHINGTON (AP) — The Supreme Court has allowed a court order to take effect that could loosen Apple's grip on its lucrative iPhone app store, and potentially affect billions of dollars in revenue a year. The justices rejected Apple's appeal of lower-court rulings that found some of Apple's app store rules for apps purchased on more than 1 billion iPhones constitute unfair competition under California law. Even so, Apple proposed a plan in court documents that would preserve most of its app store commissions, even when consumers use alternative payment options. The rejected appeal stemmed from an antitrust lawsuit filed by Epic Games, maker of the popular Fortnite video game. WASHINGTON (AP) — The Supreme Court has passed up a chance to intervene in the debate over bathrooms for transgender students, rejecting an appeal from an Indiana public school district. Federal appeals courts are divided over whether school policies enforcing restrictions on which bathrooms transgender students can use violate federal law or the Constitution. In the case the court rejected without comment on Tuesday, the Chicago-based 7th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals upheld an order granting transgender boys access to the boys' bathroom. Legal battles over transgender rights are ongoing across the country. At least nine states are restricting transgender students to bathrooms that match the sex they were assigned at birth. —The Associated Press About this program Host Terry Lipshetz is managing editor of the national newsroom for Lee Enterprises. Besides producing the daily Hot off the Wire news podcast, Terry conducts periodic interviews for this Behind the Headlines program, co-hosts the Streamed & Screened movies and television program and is the former producer of Across the Sky, a podcast dedicated to weather and climate. Lee Enterprises produces many national, regional and sports podcasts. Learn more here.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Today we’re talking about the economics of higher education in the United States. Though the average cost of going to college nearly tripled from 1980 to 2021, the net cost of attending both public and private institutions has started to come down. Martin Kurzweil, vice president of educational transformation at the nonprofit Ithaka S+R, traces that back to a decline in enrollment. “Demographers will tell us that the generations of young people coming through after the baby boom, the cohort sizes, have decreased over time, and higher education is looking at what’s come to be known as a demographic cliff,” Kurzweil said. On the show today: Kurzweil explains how college became unaffordable for many Americans, why costs have started to come down, and how a shrinking population of typical college-age students will transform higher education in the U.S. Then, we’ll get into the repercussions of the Great Recession on the retirement wealth of younger baby boomers. And, are credit rating firms underestimating the climate crisis? Later, listeners share how they deal with news fatigue. Plus, one listener explains what she got wrong about getting a college degree. Here’s everything we talked about today: “College prices aren't skyrocketing—but they're still too high for some” from The Brookings Institution “Forget that $90,000 sticker price: College costs are actually going down” from The Hill “Trends in College Pricing and Student Aid 2022” (PDF) from College Board “A Sign That Tuition Is Too High: Some Colleges Are Slashing It in Half” from The New York Times “The incredible shrinking future of college” from Vox “Ratings Firms Struggle With Climate Risk in $133 Trillion Market” from Bloomberg “Yellen Says Extreme Weather Exposes Gaps in Insurance Protection” from Insurance Journal “What Happened to Late Boomers' Retirement Wealth?” from the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College We want to hear your answer to the Make Me Smart question. You can reach us at makemesmart@marketplace.org or leave us a voicemail at 508-U-B-SMART.

Today we’re talking about the economics of higher education in the United States. Though the average cost of going to college nearly tripled from 1980 to 2021, the net cost of attending both public and private institutions has started to come down. Martin Kurzweil, vice president of educational transformation at the nonprofit Ithaka S+R, traces that back to a decline in enrollment. “Demographers will tell us that the generations of young people coming through after the baby boom, the cohort sizes, have decreased over time, and higher education is looking at what’s come to be known as a demographic cliff,” Kurzweil said. On the show today: Kurzweil explains how college became unaffordable for many Americans, why costs have started to come down, and how a shrinking population of typical college-age students will transform higher education in the U.S. Then, we’ll get into the repercussions of the Great Recession on the retirement wealth of younger baby boomers. And, are credit rating firms underestimating the climate crisis? Later, listeners share how they deal with news fatigue. Plus, one listener explains what she got wrong about getting a college degree. Here’s everything we talked about today: “College prices aren't skyrocketing—but they're still too high for some” from The Brookings Institution “Forget that $90,000 sticker price: College costs are actually going down” from The Hill “Trends in College Pricing and Student Aid 2022” (PDF) from College Board “A Sign That Tuition Is Too High: Some Colleges Are Slashing It in Half” from The New York Times “The incredible shrinking future of college” from Vox “Ratings Firms Struggle With Climate Risk in $133 Trillion Market” from Bloomberg “Yellen Says Extreme Weather Exposes Gaps in Insurance Protection” from Insurance Journal “What Happened to Late Boomers' Retirement Wealth?” from the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College We want to hear your answer to the Make Me Smart question. You can reach us at makemesmart@marketplace.org or leave us a voicemail at 508-U-B-SMART.

Demographers (researchers who study the statistics of human populations) look at factors such as birth rates, death rates, migration and life expectancy. But what exactly is meant by the term 'life expectancy'? How is it calculated, and how has it changed after the pandemic? We speak to Prof Jennifer Dowd from the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science to find out. You can find out more about Prof Dowd's work in our micro-documentary Demography: Understanding Our World: https://www.oxfordsparks.ox.ac.uk/videos/demography-understanding-our-world/

Demographers have been redefining the urban sites around the United States to try to find locations with growth and money that will offer a good return on the investment if they should they be sold. The term that they have started using is the "near urban core." It requires a little more marketing and management sophistication than average but the return on the practice is excellent. This episode explains more.   Almost all metropolitan areas have a "sweet spot" like this for professional practices.

Wolfgang Lutz is one of the world's experts in projecting global population levels and demography. I contacted him to help understand the differences between projections based on demography like his and the United Nations' versus systemic ones like in Limits to Growth.He gave a comprehensive overview of who projects and how, at least as much as can be covered in under an hour. Some highlights:Who projects based on demography: the UN, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), and the Wittgenstein Center, among others.He described what and how demographers project: Assumptions, methods, variables of age, sex, education, migration, fertility rate, mortality rate. He consistently repeated the importance of education.On Limits to Growth, he pointed out that systems analyses include feedback mechanisms, but their demographics tend to be less sophisticated, for example lacking age structure or effects of education. Demographers don't take them seriously because of their oversimplification.I asked how demographers include feedback. He described a few ways, including asking experts and translate their responses into different scenarios. What about big events like fish or aquifers depleting? He pointed out extreme events are hard to predict, though humanity's historical resilience suggests we'll figure out ways to level their effects. Demographers also include probabilistic models for tipping points, disease, and such, and report levels of variance.The results of his research and projections: Human population peaking somewhere around 2080 at around 10 billion then declining. It may reach about 3 to 4 billion by 2200, which could be long-term sustainable, though the transition is uncertain. Humanity could reach a healthy, wealthy, more equal, more resilient, and well educated future, but not given.Potential problems: heat waves, drought, floods, sea level rise. Humans can solve to some degree, but we have to prepare.What to focus on: since population changes slowly, behavior, technology, and migration first, then education especially of women in the long term since its effects happen more slowly. Also family planning, women's health, contraception, and sexual equality.We covered a lot, though scratched the surface, gives understandable overview of demographics and global population projections.I put greater weight on difficult-to-predict extreme uncertain events. At least I'd make the uncertainty go down more than the symmetry I see, but our conversation was about learning and understanding, not debate. I've learned a lot each time I've listened to this episode. It's dense with information, but on an important subject.Wolfgang's page at the International Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisTwo of his major papers explaining how he models global population growthThe end of world population growth, Nature, 2001Dimensions of global population projections: what do we know about future population trends and structures?, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 2010Executive summary of his book World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Students from all over the world claim their right for a childfree life. Some want freedom, others long for better gender balance, and others recoil in the face a dystopian future. Demographers say the childfree are few and far between. That is about to change. A podcast created by David Duhamel produced by MaisonK Prod Original music : Ben Molinaro Graphism : Anna Toussaint Sources Eva Beaujouan & Al, 2017, Has Childlessness peaked in Europe? Population and Societies, n°540 Charlotte Debest & Al, 2014, Childlessness: a life choice that goes against the norm, Population and Societies, n°508 Tomas Sobotka, World's Highest Childlessness Levels in East Asia, 2021, Population and Societies, n°595Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Christianity is the world's largest religion. In 1900, approximately 558 million people around the globe identified as Christian. By 2020, that number had grown to approximately 2.5 billion. Despite that numerical growth, Christianity shrank as a percentage of the world's population, from 34% in 1900 to 32% in 2020. Atheism and agnosticism grew from 0.2% to 12% of the global population during the same time period, and Islam doubled from 12% to 24%. Demographers estimate that by 2050, Christians will constitute 35% of the world population and Muslims 29%. What should Christians do with these statistics? That's the question I ask Dr. Gina Zurlo in this episode of the Influence Podcast. I'm George P. Wood, executive editor of Influence magazine and your host. Dr. Zurlo is codirector of the Center for the Study of Global Christianity at Gordon-Conwell Theological Seminary in South Hamilton, Massachusetts, and a research fellow at Boston University's Institute on Culture, Religion, and World Affairs. She is author of Global Christianity: A Guide to the World's Largest Religion from Afghanistan to Zimbabwe, published by Zondervan Academic. ----- This episode of the Influence Podcast is brought to you by The General Council of the Assemblies of God. General Council is the AG's premier conference. It occurs every two years the first week in August and incorporates spiritual inspiration, practical leadership training, and denominational business. The theme of the 2023 General Council is “Our Church, Our Family.” The conference will take place July 31–August 4 in Columbus, Ohio. Visit GeneralCouncil.AG.org for more information and to register.

Susan Wilner Golden visits Google to discuss her book, “Stage (Not Age): How to Understand and Serve People Over 60 – the Fastest Growing, Most Dynamic Market in the World”. The book discusses the $22 trillion opportunity that can be unlocked if we rethink everything we think we know about people over 60. The book is the concise guide to helping companies understand and serve this market by focusing on life stage, not age, and identifying the deep diversity of needs within the demographic. In the time it takes you to listen to this sentence, another twenty Americans will turn sixty-five. Ten thousand people a day are crossing that threshold, and that number will continue to grow. In fifteen years, Americans aged sixty-five and over will outnumber those under age eighteen. Nearly everywhere in the world, people over sixty will become the dominant population. Demographers tend to think of this new longevity as a crisis we are not prepared for. And there are serious issues to address in order to serve this population, and society as a whole. But longevity also presents an opportunity for which companies need to develop a strategy. Estimates put the global market for this demographic at $22 trillion across every industry you can think of. Visit http://g.co/TalksAtGoogle/StageNotAge to watch the video.

英语新闻｜联合国：明年4月，印度将超越中国成为全球第一人口大国India is forecast to surpass China as the world's most populous country by mid-April next year, a United Nations report said.联合国预测印度人口数量将在明年4月中旬超过中国，成为全球第一人口大国。India saw rapid population growth — almost 2 percent annually — for much of the second half of the last century. The UN projects that India's population will be 1.64 billion by 2050.路透社报道称，自1947年独立后，印度人口增长了超10亿。从上世纪下半叶开始，印度就一直保持着高速的人口增长，年增长率达到了2%，预计到2050年，印度人口会达到16.4亿。Yet India is not undergoing a population explosion. India's fertility rate has also fallen substantially in recent decades - from 5.7 births per woman in 1950 to two births per woman today - but the rate of decline has been slower.报道认为印度不太可能再一次经历人口爆炸，印度的生育率在近几十年里已连续下滑：从1950年每名妇女生育5.7个孩子下降到如今每名妇女生育2个孩子，尽管这一下降速度相对其他亚洲国家和地区来说偏慢。According to BBC, one in five people below 25 years in the world is from India and 47 percent of Indians are below the age of 25. "This generation of young Indians will be the largest consumer and labor source in the knowledge and network goods economy. Indians will be the largest pool of global talent," says Shruti Rajagopalan, an economist, in a new paper.据英国广播公司（BBC）报道，世界上25岁以下的人口中有五分之一来自印度，47%的印度人年龄在25岁以下。经济学家什鲁蒂·拉贾戈帕兰在一篇新论文中指出：“这一代印度年轻人将成为知识和网络商品经济中最大的消费者和劳动力来源，印度人将成为全球最大的人才库。”It could, for example, strengthen India's claim of getting a permanent seat in the UN Security Council. "I think you have certain claims on things (by being the country with largest population)," says John Wilmoth, director of the Population Division of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs.报道认为，印度超越中国成为人口最大的国家，将更有利于印度争取联合国安理会常任理事国的席位。联合国经济和社会事务部人口司司长约翰•威尔莫斯（John Wilmoth）表示：“（作为人口最多的国家)，我认为你有一定的权利。”India needs to create enough jobs for its young working age population to reap a demographic dividend. But only 40 percent of of India's working-age population works or wants to work, according to Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE).印度需要为年轻的劳动年龄人口创造足够的就业机会，来获得人口红利。但根据印度经济监测中心（CMIE）的数据，印度只有40%的劳动年龄人口工作或想要工作。More women would need jobs as they spend less time in their working age giving birth and looking after children. The picture here is bleaker: only 10 percent of working-age women were participating in the labor force in October, according to CMIE, compared with 69 percent in China.随着女性生育和照顾孩子的时间变少，更多印度女性需要工作，但她们的境况并不尽如人意。同时，印度经济监测中心数据显示，仅有10%的印度适龄妇女进入了劳动力市场，相比之下，中国的这一数字为69%。Then there's migration. Some 200 million Indians have migrated within the country — between states and districts — and their numbers are bound to grow. Most are workers who leave villages for cities to find work. "Can our cities provide migrants a reasonable living standard? Otherwise, we will end up with more slums and disease," says S. Irudaya Rajan, a migration expert at Kerala's Center for Development Studies.然后是移民问题。大约有2亿印度人在国内各地迁移，他们的人数肯定还会增长。大多数是离开农村到城市找工作的工人。“城市能为移民提供尚可的生活水平吗？如果不能，我们最终会有更多的贫民窟和疾病。”印度喀拉拉邦移民与发展国际研究所的移民专家伊鲁达亚·拉詹（S. Irudaya Rajan）说。Demographers say India also needs to stop child marriages, prevent early marriages and properly register births and deaths. A skewed sex ratio at birth — meaning more boys are born than girls — remains a worry.人口学家说，印度还需要制止童婚、防止早婚，正确登记出生和死亡人数。出生性别比失衡，男孩比女孩多，这仍然令人担忧。Demographers say the ageing of India receives little attention. In 1947, India's median age was 21. A paltry 5 percent of people were above the age of 60. Today, the median age is over 28, and more than 10 percent of Indians are over 60 years.人口学家还表示，印度的老龄化问题很少受到关注。如今，印度年龄中位数超过28岁，超过10%的印度人超过60岁。"As the working-age population declines, supporting an older population will become a growing burden on the government's resources," says Rukmini S, author of Whole Numbers and Half Truths. "Family structures will have to be recast and elderly persons living alone will become an increasing source of concern," she says.有学者认为，随着劳动年龄人口的减少，赡养老年人将成为印度政府资源越来越大的负担。家庭结构的变化以及空巢老人的增多带来的问题也将不断地浮出水面。Populous英 [ˈpɒpjələs] 美 [ˈpɑpjələs]adj. 人口众多的Reap英 [riːp] 美 [riːp]v. 获得Skewed英[skjuːd] 美[ skjuːd]adj.有偏颇的

This episode has so much detail, we do not have a "Short Version." I had to be complete. I define the differences between these types of sites. In a nutshell, it is important to make the distinction early on that it is more than population size and growth rate. The rural sites are not necessarily more or less desirable. The biggest difference is in population density. Rural sites are more spread out. They have more homogeneity in their lifestyles, In each practice-community area, there are different liabilities and benefits. I mention these in the narration. Demographers are generally cool (at least for now) on urban locations. They are losing population in the post-Covid world as costs, including taxes and other business expenses rise. Suburban locations seem to be the least attractive for reasons I will discuss in the episodes. I am not saying all practices have to locate in certain neighborhoods. It is certainly true that suburbs carry far less risk. Rural practice sites seem to be struggling to get a sufficient patient base, especially with the rising costs of fuel. So we have here a balance between ideal practice locations, their benefits, and liabilities. This episode contrasts all of these.  

Demographers study the way populations change. The things they might focus on include births and deaths, living conditions, and age distributions. In the United States, population changes are tracked nationally by the Census Bureau. A conversation with the retired chief demographer of the U.S Census Bureau with Howard Hogan is the focus of this episode of Stats+Stories. Hogan is the former chief demographer of the U.S. Census Bureau and studied at Princeton's Office of Population Research, and its School of Public Affairs. He then spent two years teaching at the University of Dar es Salaam and working on the Tanzanian census. He joined the Census in 1979. He worked on household surveys, business surveys, and the population census. He led the statistical design of the 2000 Census. He served as an expert witness in Utah v Evans, in which the Supreme Court considered the use of imputation in the Census 2000. He served as Associate Director for Demographic Programs and later as Census Bureau's Chief Demographer. He taught as an Adjunct Professor at the Department of Statistics of George Washington University. He is an Honorary Fellow of the American Statistical Association. He was awarded the 2018 Jeanne E. Griffith Mentoring Award. He retired from federal service in 2018.

Are you one of the three Americans who have a step relationship today? Demographers expect that one out of every two Americans will be in a step relationship at some point in their lives. It's not easy being a part of a blended family. There are way too many factors to take into account. In fact, external step-family-related variables generate a high divorce rate in the US. It might be a lengthy and difficult process, but it is not impossible to succeed with the right mindset, guidance, and resources. And that's exactly what Ron Deal discusses in this episode. We'll go over what to expect, what activities you can do, resources, and advice for raising a healthy blended family. Ron L. Deal is one of the most widely read and viewed experts on blended families in the country. He is Director of FamilyLife Blended® for FamilyLife®, founder of Smart Stepfamilies™, and the author and Consulting Editor of the Smart Stepfamily Series of books including the bestselling Building Love Together in Blended Families: The 5 Love Languages® and Becoming Stepfamily Smart (with Dr. Gary Chapman), The Smart Stepfamily: 7 Steps to a Healthy Family, and Preparing to Blend. Ron is a licensed marriage and family therapist, popular conference speaker, and host of the FamilyLife Blended podcast. Check out the transcript of this episode on Dr. Jessica Higgin's website. In this episode 7:38 Ron's motivation for a career in marriage and family therapy. 13:00 What you need to know about blended families. 19:55 A visual map to help you navigate the blended family territory. 36:06 Some growth activities that you can try. 45:04 How to get smart and guide your family forward in the right direction. Mentioned Preparing to Blend: The Couple's Guide to Becoming a Smart Stepfamily (*Amazon affiliate link) (book) Building Love Together in Blended Families: The 5 Love Languages and Becoming Stepfamily Smart (*Amazon affiliate link) (book) FamilyLife Blended® Podcast Connect with Ron Deal Website: familylife.com/familylifeblended/blended-families Facebook: facebook.com/familylifeministry Twitter: twitter.com/familylifetoday YouTube: youtube.com/channel/UC7WmdqnETL3gCmWruBF0tpQ Instagram: instagram.com/familylifeinsta Pinterest: pinterest.com/familylifeministry   Website: smartstepfamilies.com Facebook: facebook.com/SmartStepfamilies Twitter: twitter.com/RonLDeal YouTube: youtube.com/user/FamilyLifeBlended Connect with Dr. Jessica Higgins Facebook: facebook.com/EmpoweredRelationship  Instagram: instagram.com/drjessicahiggins  Podcast: drjessicahiggins.com/podcasts/ Pinterest: pinterest.com/EmpowerRelation  LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/drjessicahiggins  Twitter: @DrJessHiggins  Website: drjessicahiggins.com   Email: jessica@drjessicahiggins.com If you have a topic you would like me to discuss, please contact me by clicking on the “Ask Dr. Jessica Higgins” button here.  Thank you so much for your interest in improving your relationship.  Also, I would so appreciate your honest rating and review. Please leave a review by clicking here.  Thank you!   *With Amazon Affiliate Links, I may earn a few cents from Amazon, if you purchase the book from this link.

China's population is ageing. It's estimated that a quarter of Chinese people will be elderly within three decades. The relaxing of its one child policy – first to two children in 2016 and then to three last year – hasn't stimulated fertility rate, which is still stagnant at 1.7 births per woman. In November last year, nappy producers supposedly pivoted their marketing towards elderly clients over parents of babies. Demographers and economists warn about the problems that an ageing – and eventually shrinking – population will cause, in China and elsewhere. On this episode, I speak to the demographer Wang Feng, Professor of Sociology at University of California, Irvine, about what awaits China. For Professor Wang, care of the elderly will soon become an issue, with more than 365 million over 65s expected by 2050. The Chinese welfare state is minimal (ironic given its socialist pretensions), something of a ‘postcode lottery', I put to Professor Wang. He says that ‘China has already missed the time window for establishing an equitable national social security system' – it has already become too expensive, too fast.  We also discuss the one child policy at length – its logic at the time, whether Communist leaders foresaw the problems it would cause for their successors and, fascinatingly, whether there was any opposition within the Chinese Communist Party to the policy (the answer is yes ­– and if you caught my episode on the legacy of Deng Xiaoping, you will not be surprised to learn that the resistance was led by Hu Yaobang and Zhao Ziyang). Professor Wang points out that one of the reasons why the policy took so long to go even as China liberalised relatively in the 1990s and 2000s, under the helm of Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao: ‘They were people who grew up, like myself, at the end of the Cultural Revolution. Their knowledge of population was all learned from the time when China implemented the one child policy, when there was so much propaganda about how population would be the root of all problems for China. I think that generation of leaders were deeply intoxicated by these teachings'In a way, there's poetic justice for a government who thought that, in Professor Wang's words, ‘you can just plan [births] and constrain them as you would grow trees or wheat'. Today's China, regardless of the loosening of the one child policy (to two in 2016; and three last year, which I wrote about at the time), is just not having babies. For the Professor, there's a fundamental truth: ‘The ageing society is not something that China, or any other country, can reverse'. The crux lies in how to adapt society to be better prepared – fixing the welfare state, the healthcare system, and maturing the financial system so the ageing population can invest for retirement.

China's population is ageing. It's estimated that a quarter of Chinese people will be elderly within three decades. The relaxing of its one child policy – first to two children in 2016 and then to three last year – hasn't stimulated fertility rate, which is still stagnant at 1.7 births per woman. In November last year, nappy producers supposedly pivoted their marketing towards elderly clients over parents of babies. Demographers and economists warn about the problems that an ageing – and eventually shrinking – population will cause, in China and elsewhere. On this episode, I speak to the demographer Wang Feng, Professor of Sociology at University of California, Irvine, about what awaits China. For Professor Wang, care of the elderly will soon become an issue, with more than 365 million over 65s expected by 2050. The Chinese welfare state is minimal (ironic given its socialist pretensions), something of a ‘postcode lottery', I put to Professor Wang. He says that ‘China has already missed the time window for establishing an equitable national social security system' – it has already become too expensive, too fast.  We also discuss the one child policy at length – its logic at the time, whether Communist leaders foresaw the problems it would cause for their successors and, fascinatingly, whether there was any opposition within the Chinese Communist Party to the policy (the answer is yes ­– and if you caught my episode on the legacy of Deng Xiaoping, you will not be surprised to learn that the resistance was led by Hu Yaobang and Zhao Ziyang). Professor Wang points out that one of the reasons why the policy took so long to go even as China liberalised relatively in the 1990s and 2000s, under the helm of Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao: ‘They were people who grew up, like myself, at the end of the Cultural Revolution. Their knowledge of population was all learned from the time when China implemented the one child policy, when there was so much propaganda about how population would be the root of all problems for China. I think that generation of leaders were deeply intoxicated by these teachings'In a way, there's poetic justice for a government who thought that, in Professor Wang's words, ‘you can just plan [births] and constrain them as you would grow trees or wheat'. Today's China, regardless of the loosening of the one child policy (to two in 2016; and three last year, which I wrote about at the time), is just not having babies. For the Professor, there's a fundamental truth: ‘The ageing society is not something that China, or any other country, can reverse'. The crux lies in how to adapt society to be better prepared – fixing the welfare state, the healthcare system, and maturing the financial system so the ageing population can invest for retirement.

How many houses, schools, pensions, and skilled workers will we need in the next decade? The answer to that requires a handle on the size and shape of our population. Demographers give governments a snapshot but the modelling contains guesswork about fertility rates , life expectancy and immigration policy. Could we do more to make Australia an attractive destination for skilled migrants?

How many houses, schools, pensions, and skilled workers will we need in the next decade? The answer to that requires a handle on the size and shape of our population. Demographers give governments a snapshot but the modelling contains guesswork about fertility rates , life expectancy and immigration policy. Could we do more to make Australia an attractive destination for skilled migrants?

Virginia is increasingly becoming a commonwealth of urban and rural. And, as Michael Pope reports, those two worlds are growing farther apart.

For the full transcript, click on the Notes tab on the podcast player for this episode on our website: www.NewsForInvestors.com.Transcript00:00:00 Intro Music[Speaker] Kathy Fettke: With all the talk about the housing gap, you might think it's because we have very strong population growth. But in reality, the opposite is true. The birth rate has dropped again, and population growth is close to zero. Hi I'm Kathy Fettke and this is the Real Estate News for Investors. Please take a moment to subscribe to our podcast. It helps us rank, and helps people find us! This episode is all about the status of the U.S. birth rate and population growth, because it's so important to the present and future health of our economy. The economy needs to growth and for that to happen we need workers. A low growth rate now, means fewer workers in the coming years.Status on Birth Rate, Population GrowthThe U.S. has experienced a low birth rate for about a decade, and continues to dip below a threshold needed to replace people who are dying. The official U.S. birth rate for 2020 is 1.64 which is the average number of children born to women of childbearing age. The threshold amount is 2.1. And that's bringing total population growth down. (1)As reported by the Wall Street Journal, preliminary figures show that the population growth rate was just .35% in the fiscal year that ended on July 1st, 2020. (2) Demographers are expecting that figure to remain flat, or near flat, for the current year. Some also say there's a chance our population could shrink.Why This is ImportantAs I mentioned, population growth is an important part of the labor market, and the strength of the nation's economy. Demographers say they are not overly concerned about one bad year, because the growth rate usually bounces back in step with the economy. But after a peak in 2007 and the subsequent recession, they say the birth rate never recovered and has been drifting down since then.Economists Melissa Kearney and Phillip Levine say many young women avoided pregnancy because of the pandemic and economic uncertainty. They expect that to result in 300,000 fewer births this year. Data has already become available showing a decline during the first quarter of the year, compared to last year.Before the pandemic, the decline was partially due to millennials postponing their family plans, women placing more importance on their careers, and financial issues stemming from the Great Recession. Covid-19 only compounded the situation.U.S. vs. Other CountriesA researcher at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, Nicholas Eberstadt, says that despite all those impacts on the U.S. population, we are actually doing much better than other countries, such as China, Russia, and nations in the European Union. He says the big wild card for the U.S., right now, is immigration.Brookings Institution demographer, William Frey, agrees with Eberstadt. He told the Journal that he doesn't think population growth will turn negative, thanks, in part, to immigration.Over the last ten years, demographers say that immigration has boosted population by 30 to 50%. It has dropped due to recent restrictions, but at least some of those restrictions are being lifted by the current administration. And that could help offset the lower birth rate.Other Issues Impacting Population GrowthThe U.S. should also see a boost in the numbers as fewer people die of Covid-19. But the Journal cites other issues that are putting pressure on mortality. One is a rise in drug-overdose deaths, along with an increase in homicides. Some chronic diseases are also lowering life expectancy, which is also happening because of the pandemic. As for birth rate demographics, the Journal says that “every type of U.S. county, from the most urban to the most rural, on average saw a decrease in the number of births per death in the second half of the 2010s compared with the first half.”That's according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. The situation is more pronounced in rural areas however, where there are fewer jobs, less housing, and hard-to-find child care options that growing families need.As for worldwide population growth, I'll close with a few interesting statistics from Pew Research.According to a 2019 report, world population has been increasing by 1 to 2% per year, and has grown from 2.5 billion in 1950 to 7.7 billion today. But the fertility rate is falling. It cites a 2.5 fertility rate in 2019 that is expected to drop to 1.9 in 2100, which is below the replacement threshold of 2.1.Africa is the only country that's expected to have strong population growth throughout this period of time. Asia is second. Population growth in Europe and Latin America is expected to decline.Pew Research says that people migrating to the U.S. will contribute the most to U.S. population growth in the coming decades. It's projecting the U.S. that 85 million people will migrate to the U.S. during the remainder of this century.You'll find links to our sources in the show notes. You'll also find a link to join our RealWealth network of investors. It's free and easy to join. As a member, you'll have access to the Investor Portal where you can view sample property pro formas and connect with our network of resources, including experienced investment counselors, property teams, lenders, 1031 exchange facilitators, attorneys, CPAs and more.Thank you for listening. Please be sure to hit subscribe. It helps with our ranking and will deliver new episodes to your podcast player. We'd also love a great review from you on Apple podcasts or whatever platform you use! Thank you! I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors.00:05:40 EndGo to www.NewsForInvestors.com for the show notes. Links:1 - https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2021/05/24/will-births-in-the-us-rebound-probably-not/2 - https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-population-growth-slows-birth-rate-decline-economic-risk-11627231536?mod=searchresults_pos6&page=13 - https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/06/17/worlds-population-is-projected-to-nearly-stop-growing-by-the-end-of-the-century/

Demographers have sounded the alarm on global depopulation, predicting that in the latter half of the 21st century, global population will enter sustained decline for the first time in history. American fertility rates are dropping and China's population is predicted to fall from 1.4 billion to 730 million by the end of the century. Demographer and AEI scholar Nick Eberstadt joined Dany and Marc to discuss whether we should be concerned about long-term depopulation forecasts. He also talks about the graying of China under the Chinese Communist Party, and the changing values of American society.    Nick Eberstadt is the Henry Wendt Chair in Political Economy at AEI, where he researches and writes extensively on demographics and economic development generally, and more specifically on international security in the Korean peninsula and Asia. He is also a senior adviser to the National Bureau of Asian Research. https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/6.9.21-Eberstadt-transcript.pdf (Download the transcript here.)

Madison authors, topics, book events and publishers Stu Levitan welcomes Edward Ball, his latest book is the most extraordinary family memoir I have ever read, Life Of A Klansman: A Family History In White Supremacy, from the good people at Farrar, Straus and Giroux. Demographers tell us that about 137 million white Americans – more than half the current white population of the country – are direct descendants of members of the Ku Klux Klan, mostly from the second wave, from 1915 to 1925. Edward Ball's link to the Klan goes back even further. His grandmother's grandfather was Polycarp Constant Lecorgne, a downwardly mobile carpenter of French Creole descent born in New Orleans in 1832. He served – none-too-honorably —  as a Confederate soldier during the Civil War and then in its immediate aftermath joined the first generation of the Ku-Klux and other white terrorist groups in their murderous and successful effort to “redeem” their heritage, end Reconstruction and reestablish white supremacy. The story of Constant Lecorgne is a profoundly important microhistory, showing how the life of this very ordinary, even mediocre person reflects an entire culture that helped change history. Because the tragic reality is that, through men like Constant Lecorgne, the South snatched victory from the jaws of defeat; the Klan was not put down; the Klan faded because it won, preserving white supremacy for another hundred years. It is a story Edward Ball is exceptionally, even uniquely, qualified to tell. His first book, for which he won the 1998 National Book Award for Nonfiction, was Slaves in the Family, an account both of his father's family, major slaveholders in South Carolina for 170 years, and the histories of ten Black families once enslaved on their rice plantations. His other books include The Sweet Hell Inside: The Rise of an Elite Black Family in the Segregated South; The Inventor and the Tycoon: A Gilded Age Murder and the Birth of Moving Pictures; The Genetic Strand: Exploring A Family History Through DNA, and Peninsula of Lies: A True Story of Mysterious Birth and Taboo Love. The recipient of a Public Scholar Award from the National Endowment for the Humanities and several fellowships, he has also taught at Yale University and the State University of NY, and joins us today from his home in New Haven. It is a great pleasure to welcome to Madison Bookbeat, Edward Ball.

This episode originally aired on Feb. 18, 2021. Key demographic research released ahead of the 2020 U.S. Census shows unprecedented population stagnation. Demographers say the final Census count could well show the smallest decade-long growth rate in American history.

This episode originally aired on Feb. 18, 2021. Key demographic research released ahead of the 2020 U.S. Census shows unprecedented population stagnation. Demographers say the final Census count could well show the smallest decade-long growth rate in American history.

Key demographic research released ahead of the 2020 U.S. Census shows unprecedented population stagnation. Demographers say the final Census count could well show the smallest decade-long growth rate in American history.

Key demographic research released ahead of the 2020 U.S. Census shows unprecedented population stagnation. Demographers say the final Census count could well show the smallest decade-long growth rate in American history.

In the last United States Census, 18.25 million people self identified as Italian or Italian American. Demographers believe there are more than 21 million Americans of Italian descent spread throughout the nation. By some calculations, we are the fifth-largest ancestry group in the United States… but when it comes to making our voice heard in the halls of power, Italian Americans often seem far less influential than the numbers might suggest. For one Italian American community leader, it's time to address that imbalance. Basil Russo, President of the Italian Sons and Daughters of America (ISDA) and the Chairman of the Conference of Presidents of Major Italian American Organizations has worked with Italian American leaders from across the country to create Italian America Online… a new digital initiative seeking to identify and connect every Italian American organization in the United States, and eventually -- if this longtime community leader has his way -- all 21 million individuals as well! In this week’s episode, he’ll join us to introduce the first-ever Italian American Community Virtual Summit, an online meeting taking place on February 20, 2021, in which more than 1,200 Italian American organizations are scheduled to participate. And, he’d like those of you out there who know of others to help spread the word and help to expand this invaluable undertaking. We’ll discuss the “why’s and how’s” of this unprecedented event, explore what the virtual revolution means for Italian America, and of course, share some laughs along the way. It’s a call to action for Italian Americans everywhere… and one we hope you will make sure not to ignore! To sign up for the Italian American Community Virtual Summit, visit Italian America Online today! This episode is sponsored by Mediaset Italia.

Demographics can be used to predict the future of real estate markets. Nowhere is this more true than in the hundreds of small towns and villages all over the world. Younger people have been moving out of the small towns in search of fame and fortune in the big city. Some countries have been experiencing very low birth rates resulting in rapidly aging populations. In the US, birth rates were at 1.77 in 2017 and have fallen another 2% in since 2017. That’s not high enough to sustain the population at a constant level. Demographers will tell you that you need a birth rate of 2.2 in order to hold population constant. Some countries have increased immigration in order to offset the drop in fertility. In Spain, the number of deaths have exceeded the number of births for years and shows no sign of changing. Bulgaria’s population is shrinking faster than any nation on earth. Despite having a growing expat population, Bulgarians are leaving the country in droves looking for more lucrative employment elsewhere in Europe. Combined with a birth rate of 1.46, the country is expected to lose 23% of its population over the next 30 years if current trends continue. A similar trend has been reported in Latvia. In Italy, the birth rate sits a 1.34, one of the lowest in the Europe. Cost of living, low wages, and difficulty in finding steady employment is the #1 factor that most Italians cite in their decision not to have more than one child. Dying towns exist all over the country. Italy has been running an experiment to bring new investment into small towns. The most visible was the small town name Sambuca which started offering abandoned houses for auctions starting at 1E. The houses come with strings attached. They have to be redeveloped and a minimum amount of investment in renovation needs to be made. These auctions have been highly publicized and have attracted thousands of bidders from all over the world. Some of these centuries old houses in historic medieval villages have sold for 1E. But most have been bid up in price. Some sell for $5,000, 10,000, 20,000 euros. Still, that’s a reasonable deal. After renovation, some owners report total investments of around 140,000 USD for a newly rebuilt home in a slice of paradise in the Italian countryside. These are small towns where everyone in town knows your name. The owner needs to commit to spend a certain minimum amount of time there each year. Ultimately, the towns want these residents to start businesses and to bring economic activity back to these smaller centers. Some have been purchased and owner occupied for part of the year, and then put up as short term rentals for a portion of the year. About 16 towns have initially participated in similar projects 1E home projects. These programs give you a house and Italian residency. Now you will need to pay a 5,000E deposit to make sure you don’t walk away from your obligation to complete the purchase and the renovations. If you don’t complete the renovations within the contract term, then you will lose your deposit that might be more than your purchase price for the property. Many of them are in the poorest provinces like Sicily, Puglia, Calabria and Sardinia. But in today’s environment when you can be connected to the rest of the world through the internet, the actual physical location of your home matters less than it might have mattered in the past. There are so many people operating location independent businesses. Their clients are in one location, and they choose where to live based on a lifestyle choice.

Practice Brokers and Demographers may use similar data but they can different outcomes.  This is because they have different priorities and different Audiences.  The Broker has to please his Client, the seller of a practice.  The Demographer has to please the buyer AND the seller while remaining entirely objective and consistent.  This is vital for doctors to know.

The emperor has no clothes! The ‘Lame-Stream’ Media has finally caught up with Jason’s predictions of migration away from high-density areas. Beware of the elevator! High rise condos mixed in metropolitan areas have more warning signs than advantages in the modern, mobile workplace. The rise of suburbia is here! Take your work poolside, in the backyard of your very own, suburban home.  Coronavirus Quarantine Survivor, attorney, author, and actress, Juanita Ingram joins Jason Hartman to discuss Taiwan’s reaction to Coronavirus, approximately 30 days before it hit the U.S. What did Taiwan do right, and how did SARS prepare them for this problem? Born in Tennessee, and made her way through the U.K. and finally to Taiwan, hear Juanita’s perspective on the differences of culture and how Coronavirus was handled.  Key Takeaways:  [2:30] Suburbia is a uniquely American idea, that benefits us greatly, in the migration away from high-density areas. [5:15] Inflationary is bad government, bad fiscal and monetary policy while deflationary is technology and globalization. [8:00] Realtors and demographers say that this acceleration of a trend (migration away from high-density areas), is already taking place. This migration was something that was happening before COVID-19, which is something that might only be accelerating the trend.  [10:00] "We don’t need the fancy downtown office space. So, do I need to be so close to the city?” [12:30] Never listen to the naysayers, they’re usually wrong. [15:00] Reports of temporary migration out of high-density areas started with the shelter in place. The continuation of this will be a more permanent migration.  [17:20] Demographers and realtors alike, predict that this is a tipping point of people that have been dreaming of backyards, pools, and more space.  Guest Juanita Ingram [18:45] What’s going on in Taiwan, so close to China?  [23:00] From Wuhan Virus to COVID-19, the changes made in Taiwan, approximately 30 days ahead of the U.S. [24:45] After Taiwan’s experience with SARS, they had a pandemic plan in place. Taiwan is now being called the blueprint of what should’ve been done [26:30] Taiwan’s cases escalated due to the import of cases from outside of the country.  [30:30] Two ER Doctors in Atlanta, Georgia that both tested positive. One is very sick, and the other is asymptomatic.  Websites: 1-800-HARTMAN www.iamjuanitaingram.com www.JasonHartman.com Jason Hartman University Membership Jason Hartman Quick Start Jason Hartman PropertyCast (Libsyn) Jason Hartman PropertyCast (iTunes)

In today's Daily Download episode, HW+ Managing Editor Brena Nath discusses whether or not the COVID-19 pandemic will spur home-buying migration from dense U.S. cities.When state governments ordered residents to stay at home more than a month ago, it triggered a wave of temporary migration. While some in the Northeast flocked to Florida, others, wary of germs easily spreading in high-rise building elevators and through dense city life, rented homes in the suburbs. Still others, particularly young single adults, packed bags and moved back in with their parents.As states plan to reopen their economies, what changes COVID-19 will have on the housing market remain to be seen. Demographers and Realtors alike predict this is a tipping point for people who've already been dreaming of backyards, private pools, and more space. It will accelerate trends that were already happening, they said, and bring a new level of consideration – whether people upgrade their apartments and condos for larger units or move out of dense cities altogether.Following the main story, HousingWire Digital Producer Alcynna Lloyd covers the Commerce Department's report that indicates coronavirus has ended America's longest economic expansion, the Mortgage Bankers Association's weekly mortgage applications survey that reveals the nation's home purchase applications are on the rise and the National Association of Realtors' pending home sales report, which highlights U.S. pending home sales declined 20.8% in March.The Daily Download examines the most captivating articles reported from the HousingWire newsroom. Each afternoon, HousingWire provides its readers with a deeper look into the stories that are not only chronicling the biggest announcements within the housing finance industry but are also helping Move Markets Forward. Hosted by the HW team and produced by Alcynna Lloyd.HousingWire articles covered in this episode:Will COVID-19 spur a migration from dense cities?COVID-19 kills America's longest economic expansionHome purchase applications rise as coronavirus slowdown begins to thawPending home sales tumble on COVID-19 shock

Demographers and those Studying Age are commenting on the big changes in the population and how it matters to doctors seeking a good patient base.  The rules are changing!

Demographers have to take into account SEVERAL factors when considering whether there is room for one more office in a particular location.  Nevertheless, we keep seeing numbers published that don't take them into account.  The result can be a very costly error.  In this episode, we explain some of these factors that we use that you should consider.

Demographers are hotly debating the meaning of research and social media to illustrate where to put a practice.  The "facts" and the commonly accepted "wisdom" have never been more in conflict that right now.  This episode discusses the issue and even makes some practical recommendations. 

Nearly thirty years ago, Nobel Laureate Amartya Sen wrote an essay in the New York Review of Books entitled “More than 100 Million Women are Missing.” Sen didn't mean “missing” as in “missing person.” He meant that in places like China and his native India there were more than 100 million fewer women than demographic trends suggested there should be. Two decades later, journalist Mara Hvistendahl wrote “Unnatural Selection: Choosing Boys over Girls and the Consequences of a World Full of Men.” By the time of the book's publication, the estimate of missing women had grown to 160 million. The “elephant in the room” behind this terrible trend is abortion. Demographers and other researchers first thought that the explanation must be that female infanticide—you know, the kind practiced in the ancient world—had somehow made a comeback. Instead, they discovered that female children were being identified in utero, via amniocentesis or ultrasound, and then they were aborted. The combination of technology, preference for male children, government policies such as China's infamous “One-Child Policy,” and legalized abortion had altered demographics from China to Albania. Still, researchers downplayed this connection between abortion and the 100-million plus missing women. Hvistendahl, for example, placed far more emphasis on cultural attitudes and discrimination against women. While these factors certainly play a role in the gender imbalance, without easy access to abortion this problem wouldn't exist, at least not in its present form. A recent study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences makes the connection between abortion and gender imbalance more explicit. Researchers from Britain concluded that between 1970 and 2017, “sex-selective abortions resulted in about 23.1 million missing baby girls.” According to a demographer from the American Enterprise Institute, that number “seems a bit low.” In China and India alone, men outnumber women by 70 million. The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences has estimated that by next year, 24 million Chinese men of marriageable age will be unable to find a spouse. Since mortality rates are much higher for men than women, either Chinese and Indian women are exceptionally unlucky, or, as is more likely, the lion's share of that 70-plus million represents women who were killed as the result of sex-selection abortion. That's why both China and India have done what the U. S. has not: outlaw sex-selection abortion. While their laws are honored more in the breach than in the observance, at least China and India have acknowledged the problem. The cultural preference for boys and systemic discrimination against girls is nothing new. But the radical gender imbalance in places like China and India is. Not coincidentally, that imbalance emerged just as abortion became readily available in the 1970s. To put it bluntly, legal abortion made it easier to eliminate unwanted daughters. To put it even more bluntly, gendercide isn't the result of people having abortions for the “wrong reason”—it's the result of abortion itself. And though a sexist act of violence halfway around the world should be just as intolerable to us as if it were happening in our own backyard, make no mistake. Elective abortion leads to sex-selective abortion. It is happening in America, too. Of course, getting abortion-rights advocates to acknowledge this is like trying to swim against the current of the Ganges from the Bay of Bengal to its source in the Himalayas. Good luck with that. Still, the savage truth is hundreds of millions of missing women is the price we've paid for legalized abortion. It's the elephant in the room, and it isn't going anywhere.

Demographers and economists believe urban growth and sustainability is tied to immigration.

Demographers are contemplating the impact of the reduction of write-offs on State and Local Taxes for where to put a professional practice, government representation, and growth (and population loss).  This is an important session you don't want to miss!

Simon Kuestenmacher is one of Australia's rising stars in the world of demography. Demographers study people and because property is all about where people live and what we live in, this is something we need to pay attention to. Simon is probably most well known to be the brains beside the renowned Bernard Salt at The Demographics Group. Here's some of what we learned in this discussion; How an aging population, death and high migration will shift Australian needs for housing. The population argument - for and against - and why it has lead to an awful outcome in terms of housing stock. The difference both old and new technology will make to the way we live and will we ever get high speed trains in this country? Part researcher, part futurist, what an amazing glimpse into what could be ahead! https://www.tdgp.com.au/ Download the transcript: www.thelephantintheroom.com.au/podcasts/040 Work with Veronica? info@gooddeeds.com.au Work with Chris? hello@wealthful.com.auSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week, we get an update the flow of migrants leaving the US to go to Quebec, and meet Puerto Ricans deciding whether to stay on the island or come back to New England. We’ll talk about housing for a rapidly aging population in Vermont, and learn how a the settlement dollars from a Volkswagen lawsuit could help spur electric vehicle use in Maine. Finally, we get a taste of what’s new about New England food. Flight Fearing the Trump administration’s stricter immigration policies, thousands have been fleeing the United States for Canada. One policy change is the end of a temporary residency program for 59,000 Haitians allowed to legally enter the United States following an earthquake in 2010. The Haitians will have to leave the country by July 2019, or face deportation. That program has also ended for two thousand Nicaraguans. It's unclear if other groups including 300,000 Salvadorans will be allowed to remain. A man from Congo speaks with Royal Canadian Mounted Police officers after illegally entering Canada. The man from Congo was then frisked before being processed in the white trailer. Photo by Lorne Matalon for VPR The net result is a continued flow of people crossing the border into Canada by foot. They take advantage of a Canadian law that says those who cross by foot won’t be turned back until their case is heard. Reporter Lorne Matalon takes us back to the site of earlier reporting: the illegal boarder crossing at Roxham Road north of Champlain, New York. Puerto Ricans have been facing similar questions about whether to relocate following the devastation of Hurricane Maria. Of course, Puerto Ricans who choose to leave the island to come to New England aren't immigrants, they're US citizens. WNPR's Jeff Cohen reports on the lack of power and water across much of the island is causing a growing number of people to make hard choices. A Few Years Down the Road… Jan Belville decided to sell her large house in Brandon, Vt. to move into a senior affordable apartment. Bellville was on a a waiting list for almost five years. Photo by Howard Weiss-Tisman for VPR In the 18 years after World War II, birth rates across America hit unprecedented levels. Demographers named that sizable generation the Baby Boom. Today’s baby boomers make up about 25 percent of the United States population. As boomers head into retirement they’re rewriting the expectations we have about where and how senior citizens want to live. As we've reported previously, New England's population is older than most of the country. Given that Vermont is expected to have the oldest population in the nation by 2030, many baby boomers there are facing tough decisions about housing. Vermont Public Radio’s Howard Weiss-Tisman reports. For more, check out “Aging Well,” a special VPR series exploring how the Baby Boom generation is viewing retirement and changing the future makeup of Vermont. ReVision Energy’s Barry Woods charges up his company car in Brunswick, Maine. Photo by Fred Bever for Maine Public Electric vehicles make up a fraction of the cars sold in New England. But new state policies – and a cash infusion from the settlement of Volkswagen’s pollution scandal – could speed the build-out of electric vehicle charging stations, and jump-start the region’s EV market. Maine Public Radio's Fred Bever reports. The Best Food in New England “Local” has become the most important word in the world of New England food. “Local” grass-fed beef, locally-made sheep's milk cheese, or restaurants that proudly list the names of local farmers that grow their food are all a growing part of this movement. Amy Traverso is senior food editor for Yankee Magazine and NewEngland.com, and she's been watching these trends. She's an expert in New England food, and an advocate for it. She says chefs and food producers are challenging the notion that New England's traditional foods are stodgy and boring. Think dishes like lobster on black rice with brown butter aioli, or baked beans with pomegranate molasses. Traverso is also in charge of giving out Yankee Magazine's annual Editor's Choice Food Awards – now five years in the running. About NEXT NEXT is produced at WNPR. Host: John Dankosky Producer: Andrea Muraskin Executive Producer: Catie Talarski Contributors to this episode: Lorne Matalon, Jeff Cohen, Patrick Skahill, Howard Weiss-Tisman, Fred Bever Music: Todd Merrell, “New England” by Goodnight Blue Moon Get all the NEXT episodes. We appreciate your feedback! Send praise, critique, suggestions, questions, story leads, and artisanal chocolate bars to next@wnpr.org.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Many demographic changes are taking place, with the Baby Boomers, a large generation, retiring, and Generation Y, a larger generation than the Baby Boomers, consuming at record levels.  Join Jason Hartman and demographer, Ken Gronbach, as they discuss this upcoming “storm.” Ken describes Generation Y as an exciting generation, where the United States is the only country with this large of a group at the present time, and that it is very important that businesses recognize and anticipate their markets as Generation Y grows up. Generation X is more of a mystery generation because of its smaller size, which makes it less of a valuable market.  Ken believes that the United States' best days are ahead as people bail out of the European Union. He also believes that China's economic future is bleak due to artificial tampering with the population, with demographic numbers showing China in trouble economically within ten years, struggling to feed themselves within 15 years. Ken shows how the housing market is being held hostage by big bank foreclosures and why this log jam will soon correct and precipitate a restoration of the United States economy. Ken also talks about how manufacturing will return to the United States with a vengeance because the United States is the only industrialized nation with a huge young highly skilled workforce. Kenneth W. Gronbach is a gifted keynote speaker and a nationally recognized expert and futurist in the field of Demography and Generational Marketing. Ken entertains his audiences with his own special brand of wit, humor and clear communication. He makes the science of shifting demography come alive with real life examples that make it relevant to today's culture, business climate and economy.  In his book “Age Curve, How to Profit from the Coming Demographic Storm”, published by The American Management Association, Ken takes you through a fascinating common sense understanding of shifting demography and the related opportunities and challenges. The demographic landscape in the United States is made up a series of waves that are about twenty years in duration. It would follow that business will rise and fall according to the critical mass of customers heading toward it. Ken's latest book “Decades of Difference, Making it Work” (HRD Press), about the United States workforce, was released in October 2010. Ken also writes for the CNBC Guest Blog. Ken's perspective is macro, a view from 30,000 feet, and very big picture. Demographers are able to forecast markets, societal phenomena, and economics with uncanny accuracy because they count people, not money or things. For example crime has been down in the United States for the last twenty years because the number of high risk crime committers (men 15 to 30 years old) has been low and fully employed. This is because the fertility in the United States dipped sharply between 1965 and 1984 creating a deficit in our population of about nine million people. This shortage of young people in the labor force also drove labor costs up and manufacturing off shore. Ken says the Age Curve will change the way businesses market to consumers and that a sea of entrepreneurial business starts will rule as the economy turns around.

Rajini Vaidyanathan examines segregation. The Brown versus the Board of Education case and the civil rights movement were supposed to have brought Americans together, but in Kansas City Rajini sees for herself the much more complicated legacy of desegregation. On the one hand, splintering solidarity in the black community; on the other a city where white and black Americans still live quite separate lives. Demographers suggest America is becoming less segregated, but in Atlanta, one of the big southern cities supposedly driving the desegregation, she finds the reality doesn't quite match the statistics. Catching up with a family featured throughout the series, she finds estate agents steering black families away from white neighbourhoods. She discusses that with Julian Castro, the US Housing Secretary, and hears about his new rules to get communities integrating. And in Connecticut she sees a community which has spent 20 years integrating its schools, without requiring it of anyone. Rally in Brooklyn, New York City 2015 against documentation that showed that black and hispanic students are increasingly confined to worst performing schools. Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images

Enacted in 1980, the one child policy was designed to allow China's development to forge ahead. Demographers estimate that at between 100 and 400 million births were averted as a direct result of this policy, and some Chinese argue that this has helped China achieve the momentous task of lifting over 550 million people out of poverty. However, the policy has been controversial, with accusations of human rights abuses in implementation, unusually high sex ratios at birth, as well as concerns about the social implications of a generation of single children. On Monday 25 May, acclaimed journalist and novelist Ms Xue Xinran joined Lowy Institute East Asia program Director Merriden Varrall in a conversation about how the one child policy, introduced in 1978, is affecting the Chinese social, economic, and political landscape.