Podcasts about Federal Reserve Bank

Robert Kaplan, Goldman Sachs vice chair and former Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas president talks about what's next for the Federal Reserve and who could be the next Fed chair.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It is a special edition of the Beigies Awards where one regional Federal Reserve Bank will receive lifetime achievement recognition. Today on the show, we speak to its President about the value of economic anecdotes.Related episodes: What keeps a Fed president up at nightUsing anecdotes to predict recessionsFor sponsor-free episodes of The Indicator from Planet Money, subscribe to Planet Money+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org. Fact-checking by Tyler Jones. Music by Drop Electric. Find us: TikTok, Instagram, Facebook, Newsletter.  Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong talk with special guest Adam Posen about the prospects for inflation and even a financial crisis. Posen has worked for both the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Bank of England, and is the current president of the non-profit Peterson Institute for International Economics. They talk about the options facing the next Fed chair, the conditions for serious inflation, and AI's role in our economic future. Also they go short crypto and long the New England Patriots. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

John Bailey Jones and Urvi Neelakantan discuss the decline in the movement of workers from one place to another, and possible explanations and policy solutions for the decline. Jones is vice president of microeconomic analysis and Neelakantan is a senior policy economist, both at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2025/speaking_2025_12_03_geographic_mobility

Alcohol and comedy clubs go together very well - which can lead to drama! And not all drama is because someone is drunk. Here's a quick story about a night where alcohol caused drama in the front row . . . but not how you would think.  https://www.TheWorkLady.com  Jan McInnis is a top change management keynote speaker, comedian, and funny motivational speaker who helps organizations use humor to handle change, build resilience, and strengthen leadership skills. With her laugh-out-loud stories and practical tips, Jan shows audiences how humor isn't just entertainment—it's a business skill that drives communication, connection, and stress relief.   A conference keynote speaker, Master of Ceremonies, and comedy writer, Jan has written material for The Tonight Show with Jay Leno as well as radio, TV, and syndicated cartoon strips. She's the author of two books—Finding the Funny Fast and Convention Comedian—and her insights on humor in business have been featured in The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, and The Huffington Post. For over 25 years, she has been helping leaders and teams discover how to bounce back from setbacks, embrace change, and connect through comedy.   Jan has delivered keynote speeches at thousands of events nationwide, from the Federal Reserve Banks to the Mayo Clinic, for industries that include healthcare, finance, government, education, women's leadership events, technology, and safety & disaster management. Her client list features respected organizations such as: Healthcare: Mayo Clinic, Kaiser Permanente, Abbott Pharmaceuticals, Health Information Management Associations, Assisted Living Associations Finance: Federal Reserve Banks, Merrill Lynch, Transamerica Insurance, BDO Accounting, American Institute of CPAs, credit unions, banking associations Government: U.S. Air Force, Social Security Administration, International Institute of Municipal Clerks, National League of Cities, public utilities, correctional associations Women's Leadership Events: Toyota Women's Conference, Go Red for Women, Speaking of Women's Health, Soroptimists, Women in Insurance & Financial Services Education: State superintendent associations, community college associations, Head Start associations, National Association of Elementary and Middle School Principals Safety & Disaster: International Association of Emergency Managers, Disney Emergency Management, Mid-Atlantic Safety Conference, risk management associations   Her background as a Washington, D.C. marketing executive gives her a unique perspective that blends business acumen with stand-up comedy. Jan was also honored with the Greater Washington Society of Association Executives "Excellence in Education" Award. Along with her podcast Finding the Funny: Leadership Tips from a Comedian, Jan also produces Comedian Stories: Tales From the Road in Under 5 Minutes. Whether she's headlining a major convention, hosting a leadership retreat, or teaching resilience at a safety conference, Jan's programs give audiences the tools to laugh, learn, and lead.  

Chuck Gascon, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Senior Economist joins Megan Lynch to talk about the impact of government shutdown now that the shutdown has ended a couple weeks ago.

New research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland finds that earning a college degree can still help you keep a job and get higher wages, but it's less of an advantage than it used to be. ​The unemployment gap between college graduates and those with just a high school diploma is narrowing. Also: a handful of stocks driving economic growth, a potential trade agreement between the U.S. and Taiwan, and life as a 67-year-old retiree.

New research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland finds that earning a college degree can still help you keep a job and get higher wages, but it's less of an advantage than it used to be. ​The unemployment gap between college graduates and those with just a high school diploma is narrowing. Also: a handful of stocks driving economic growth, a potential trade agreement between the U.S. and Taiwan, and life as a 67-year-old retiree.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Christopher Whalen to the show. Christopher Whalen is an Investment Banker, Author, and Chairman Whalen Global Advisors. The discussion centers on the current economic landscape, with a particular focus on gold, monetary policy, and the future of the global financial system. Whalen argues that the world is in the early stages of a gold up-cycle, primarily driven by central banks increasingly adopting gold as a key reserve asset. He emphasizes that while the US dollar remains crucial for global trade, its dominance is gradually shifting. Whalen provides insights into the current economic challenges, highlighting inflation as a significant concern. He suggests that the federal deficit and monetary expansion are primary drivers of economic instability. The conversation explores the potential for alternative monetary approaches, including gold-linked bonds and revaluing gold stocks, though Whalen remains skeptical about a complete return to a gold standard. Regarding global currency dynamics, Whalen believes the BRICS settlement currency and attempts to challenge the US dollar’s supremacy are unlikely to succeed in the near term. He argues that the dollar’s utility in financing transactions and its widespread acceptance make it difficult to replace. However, he anticipates a gradual decline in the dollar’s global share, moving towards a more multilateral system reminiscent of the pre-World War II era. On investment strategies, Whalen recommends diversification, particularly advocating for 10-20% of portfolios to be allocated to gold. He is cautious about current equity markets, especially tech stocks driven by artificial intelligence hype. The banking sector presents mixed prospects, with consumer banking relatively stable but commercial real estate posing significant challenges. Ultimately, Whalen remains optimistic about the United States’ economic potential. He believes the country’s natural resources, economic flexibility, and inherent strengths will help manage current financial challenges. The discussion concludes with a nuanced view of economic transformation, suggesting adaptation rather than catastrophic decline. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:00:54 – Gold’s Long-Term Cycle 00:01:21 – Central Banks Buying Gold 00:03:13 – Inflation and AI Hype 00:05:44 – Monetary Inflation Defined 00:07:04 – Metals as Safe Havens 00:11:13 – Commodity Supercycle Thesis 00:13:03 – Treasury Debt Issuance Strategy 00:15:44 – Gold-Linked Bonds Proposal 00:19:12 – Gold Remonetization Incentives 00:21:36 – BRICS Currency Challenge 00:26:56 – Outgrowing US Debt 00:32:41 – Equities in Inflation 00:36:26 – Banking Sector Health 00:38:32 – Concluding Thoughts Guest Links: Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/ X: https://x.com/rcwhalen Books (Amazon): https://tinyurl.com/mv3wctcr LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rcwhalen/ Over three decades, Chris has worked as an author, financial professional, and journalist in Washington, New York, and London. After graduating, he served under Rep. Jack Kemp (R-NY) at the House Republican Conference Committee. In 1993, he was the first journalist to report on secret FOMC minutes concealed by Alan Greenspan. His career included roles at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Bear Stearns & Co., Prudential Securities, Tangent Capital, and Carrington Mortgage Holdings. Christopher holds a B.A. in History from Villanova University. He is the author of three books: “Ford Men: From Inspiration to Enterprise” (2017), published by Laissez Faire Books; “Inflated: How Money and Debt Built the American Dream” (2010) by John Wiley & Sons; and co-author of “Financial Stability: Fraud, Confidence & the Wealth of Nations,” also with Wiley. He served on FINRA’s Economic Advisory Committee from 2011 to 2023 and was an advisor on Season 5 of SHOWTIME's “Billions.” Additionally, he was a fellow at Indiana State University (2008-2014), a member of Villanova School of Business' Finance Department Advisory Council (2013-2016), and a board member of the Global Interdependence Center (2017-2019). Christopher edits The Institutional Risk Analyst and contributes to other publications and forums. He has testified before Congress, the SEC, and FDIC. A regular media commentator on CNBC, Bloomberg, and Fox News, Chris is active on social media under “rcwhalen.” He is also a member of The Mortgage Bankers Association and The Lotos Club of New York.

On November 17, 2025, the Economic Club of Minnesota hosted a captivating fireside chat between Ecolab CEO Christophe Beck and Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari, drawing a packed house of business leaders, policymakers, and curious Minnesotans eager for a pulse on the state's—and the nation's—economic trajectory. As head of Ecolab, a St. Paul-based global giant in water, hygiene, and infection prevention solutions, Beck brought a practitioner's lens to the discussion, sharing how the company is viewing and engaging with AI to improve Ecolab's performance. Christophe also discussed the deep commitment Ecolab has in the state and in the local economy and well-being of Ecolab's neighbors. Just that morning, at a separate event, Christophe and the Ecolab Foundation announced a collaborative investment to increase safe, stable, and affordable housing.  Christophe Beck believes in "growing the pie"  rather than taking the existing pie and trying to share more. Beck is an inspirational and energetic force.

There are some groups in comedy clubs that comedians dread . . . Bacherlorette parties rank right up there around number 1. I've had to deal with my fair share of them but one club owner actually had a brilliant idea for marketing to them to make extra money. Check out my short story here.  https://www.TheWorkLady.com  Jan McInnis is a top change management keynote speaker, comedian, and funny motivational speaker who helps organizations use humor to handle change, build resilience, and strengthen leadership skills. With her laugh-out-loud stories and practical tips, Jan shows audiences how humor isn't just entertainment—it's a business skill that drives communication, connection, and stress relief.   A conference keynote speaker, Master of Ceremonies, and comedy writer, Jan has written material for The Tonight Show with Jay Leno as well as radio, TV, and syndicated cartoon strips. She's the author of two books—Finding the Funny Fast and Convention Comedian—and her insights on humor in business have been featured in The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, and The Huffington Post. For over 25 years, she has been helping leaders and teams discover how to bounce back from setbacks, embrace change, and connect through comedy.   Jan has delivered keynote speeches at thousands of events nationwide, from the Federal Reserve Banks to the Mayo Clinic, for industries that include healthcare, finance, government, education, women's leadership events, technology, and safety & disaster management. Her client list features respected organizations such as: Healthcare: Mayo Clinic, Kaiser Permanente, Abbott Pharmaceuticals, Health Information Management Associations, Assisted Living Associations Finance: Federal Reserve Banks, Merrill Lynch, Transamerica Insurance, BDO Accounting, American Institute of CPAs, credit unions, banking associations Government: U.S. Air Force, Social Security Administration, International Institute of Municipal Clerks, National League of Cities, public utilities, correctional associations Women's Leadership Events: Toyota Women's Conference, Go Red for Women, Speaking of Women's Health, Soroptimists, Women in Insurance & Financial Services Education: State superintendent associations, community college associations, Head Start associations, National Association of Elementary and Middle School Principals Safety & Disaster: International Association of Emergency Managers, Disney Emergency Management, Mid-Atlantic Safety Conference, risk management associations   Her background as a Washington, D.C. marketing executive gives her a unique perspective that blends business acumen with stand-up comedy. Jan was also honored with the Greater Washington Society of Association Executives "Excellence in Education" Award. Along with her podcast Finding the Funny: Leadership Tips from a Comedian, Jan also produces Comedian Stories: Tales From the Road in Under 5 Minutes. Whether she's headlining a major convention, hosting a leadership retreat, or teaching resilience at a safety conference, Jan's programs give audiences the tools to laugh, learn, and lead.  

Yes, but these are special dolls! Here's a quick story about some dolls I was given to help me stop worrying about the future! It was a cool gift and I've used them for decades. Take a listen to see if you might need a set of these!  https://www.TheWorkLady.com  Jan McInnis is a top change management keynote speaker, comedian, and funny motivational speaker who helps organizations use humor to handle change, build resilience, and strengthen leadership skills. With her laugh-out-loud stories and practical tips, Jan shows audiences how humor isn't just entertainment—it's a business skill that drives communication, connection, and stress relief.   A conference keynote speaker, Master of Ceremonies, and comedy writer, Jan has written material for The Tonight Show with Jay Leno as well as radio, TV, and syndicated cartoon strips. She's the author of two books—Finding the Funny Fast and Convention Comedian—and her insights on humor in business have been featured in The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, and The Huffington Post. For over 25 years, she has been helping leaders and teams discover how to bounce back from setbacks, embrace change, and connect through comedy.   Jan has delivered keynote speeches at thousands of events nationwide, from the Federal Reserve Banks to the Mayo Clinic, for industries that include healthcare, finance, government, education, women's leadership events, technology, and safety & disaster management. Her client list features respected organizations such as: Healthcare: Mayo Clinic, Kaiser Permanente, Abbott Pharmaceuticals, Health Information Management Associations, Assisted Living Associations Finance: Federal Reserve Banks, Merrill Lynch, Transamerica Insurance, BDO Accounting, American Institute of CPAs, credit unions, banking associations Government: U.S. Air Force, Social Security Administration, International Institute of Municipal Clerks, National League of Cities, public utilities, correctional associations Women's Leadership Events: Toyota Women's Conference, Go Red for Women, Speaking of Women's Health, Soroptimists, Women in Insurance & Financial Services Education: State superintendent associations, community college associations, Head Start associations, National Association of Elementary and Middle School Principals Safety & Disaster: International Association of Emergency Managers, Disney Emergency Management, Mid-Atlantic Safety Conference, risk management associations   Her background as a Washington, D.C. marketing executive gives her a unique perspective that blends business acumen with stand-up comedy. Jan was also honored with the Greater Washington Society of Association Executives "Excellence in Education" Award. Along with her podcast Finding the Funny: Leadership Tips from a Comedian, Jan also produces Comedian Stories: Tales From the Road in Under 5 Minutes. Whether she's headlining a major convention, hosting a leadership retreat, or teaching resilience at a safety conference, Jan's programs give audiences the tools to laugh, learn, and lead.  

Job growth was better than expected in September with the best job gains since April, according to the delayed government report. But key data is still missing, and questions remain about the strength of the economy. That uncertainty comes as the Fed prepares to consider another rate cut. Geoff Bennett discussed more with Austan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. PBS News is supported by - https://www.pbs.org/newshour/about/funders. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy

My fellow pro-growth/progress/abundance Up Wingers in America and around the world:What really gets AI optimists excited isn't the prospect of automating customer service departments or human resources. Imagine, rather, what might happen to the pace of scientific progress if AI becomes a super research assistant. Tom Davidson's new paper, How Quick and Big Would a Software Intelligence Explosion Be?, explores that very scenario.Today on Faster, Please! — The Podcast, I talk with Davidson about what it would mean for automated AI researchers to rapidly improve their own algorithms, thus creating a self-reinforcing loop of innovation. We talk about the economic effects of self-improving AI research and how close we are to that reality.Davidson is a senior research fellow at Forethought, where he explores AI and explosive growth. He was previously a senior research fellow at Open Philanthropy and a research scientist at the UK government's AI Security Institute.In This Episode* Making human minds (1:43)* Theory to reality (6:45)* The world with automated research (10:59)* Considering constraints (16:30)* Worries and what-ifs (19:07)Below is a lightly edited transcript of our conversation. Making human minds (1:43). . . you don't have to build any more computer chips, you don't have to build any more fabs . . . In fact, you don't have to do anything at all in the physical world.Pethokoukis: A few years ago, you wrote a paper called “Could Advanced AI Drive Explosive Economic Growth?,” which argued that growth could accelerate dramatically if AI would start generating ideas the way human researchers once did. In your view, population growth historically powered kind of an ideas feedback loop. More people meant more researchers meant more ideas, rising incomes, but that loop broke after the demographic transition in the late-19th century but you suggest that AI could restart it: more ideas, more output, more AI, more ideas. Does this new paper in a way build upon that paper? “How quick and big would a software intelligence explosion be?”The first paper you referred to is about the biggest-picture dynamic of economic growth. As you said, throughout the long run history, when we produced more food, the population increased. That additional output transferred itself into more people, more workers. These days that doesn't happen. When GDP goes up, that doesn't mean people have more kids. In fact, the demographic transition, the richer people get, the fewer kids they have. So now we've got more output, we're getting even fewer people as a result, so that's been blocked.This first paper is basically saying, look, if we can manufacture human minds or human-equivalent minds in any way, be it by building more computer chips, or making better computer chips, or any way at all, then that feedback loop gets going again. Because if we can manufacture more human minds, then we can spend output again to create more workers. That's the first paper.The second paper double clicks on one specific way that we can use output to create more human minds. It's actually, in a way, the scariest way because it's the way of creating human minds which can happen the quickest. So this is the way where you don't have to build any more computer chips, you don't have to build any more fabs, as they're called, these big factories that make computer chips. In fact, you don't have to do anything at all in the physical world.It seems like most of the conversation has been about how much investment is going to go into building how many new data centers, and that seems like that is almost the entire conversation, in a way, at the moment. But you're not looking at compute, you're looking at software.Exactly, software. So the idea is you don't have to build anything. You've already got loads of computer chips and you just make the algorithms that run the AIs on those computer chips more efficient. This is already happening, but it isn't yet a big deal because AI isn't that capable. But already, one year out, Epoch, this AI forecasting organization, estimates that just in one year, it becomes 10 times to 1000 times cheaper to run the same AI system. Just wait 12 months, and suddenly, for the same budget, you are able to run 10 times as many AI systems, or maybe even 1000 times as many for their most aggressive estimate. As I said, not a big deal today, but if we then develop an AI system which is better than any human at doing research, then now, in 10 months, you haven't built anything, but you've got 10 times as many researchers that you can set to work or even more than that. So then we get this feedback loop where you make some research progress, you improve your algorithms, now you've got loads more researchers, you set them all to work again, finding even more algorithmic improvements. So today we've got maybe a few hundred people that are advancing state-of-the-art AI algorithms.I think they're all getting paid a billion dollars a person, too.Exactly. But maybe we can 10x that initially by having them replaced by AI researchers that do the same thing. But then those AI researchers improve their own algorithms. Now you have 10x as many again, you have them building more computer chips, you're just running them more efficiently, and then the cycle continues. You're throwing more and more of these AI researchers at AI progress itself, and the algorithms are improving in what might be a very powerful feedback loop.In this case, it seems me that you're not necessarily talking about artificial general intelligence. This is certainly a powerful intelligence, but it's narrow. It doesn't have to do everything, it doesn't have to play chess, it just has to be able to do research.It's certainly not fully general. You don't need it to be able to control a robot body. You don't need it to be able to solve the Riemann hypothesis. You don't need it to be able to even be very persuasive or charismatic to a human. It's not narrow, I wouldn't say, it has to be able to do literally anything that AI researchers do, and that's a wide range of tasks: They're coding, they're communicating with each other, they're managing people, they are planning out what to work on, they are thinking about reviewing the literature. There's a fairly wide range of stuff. It's extremely challenging. It's some of the hardest work in the world to do, so I wouldn't say it's now, but it's not everything. It's some kind of intermediate level of generality in between a mere chess algorithm that just does chess and the kind of AGI that can literally do anything.Theory to reality (6:45)I think it's a much smaller gap for AI research than it is for many other parts of the economy.I think people who are cautiously optimistic about AI will say something like, “Yeah, I could see the kind of intelligence you're referring to coming about within a decade, but it's going to take a couple of big breakthroughs to get there.” Is that true, or are we actually getting pretty close?Famously, predicting the future of technology is very, very difficult. Just a few years before people invented the nuclear bomb, famous, very well-respected physicists were saying, “It's impossible, this will never happen.” So my best guess is that we do need a couple of fairly non-trivial breakthroughs. So we had the start of RL training a couple of years ago, became a big deal within the language model paradigm. I think we'll probably need another couple of breakthroughs of that kind of size.We're not talking a completely new approach, throw everything out, but we're talking like, okay, we need to extend the current approach in a meaningfully different way. It's going to take some inventiveness, it's going to take some creativity, we're going to have to try out a few things. I think, probably, we'll need that to get to the researcher that can fully automate OpenAI, is a nice way of putting it — OpenAI doesn't employ any humans anymore, they've just got AIs there.There's a difference between what a model can do on some benchmark versus becoming actually productive in the real world. That's why, while all the benchmark stuff is interesting, the thing I pay attention to is: How are businesses beginning to use this technology? Because that's the leap. What is that gap like, in your scenario, versus an AI model that can do a theoretical version of the lab to actually be incorporated in a real laboratory?It's definitely a gap. I think it's a pretty big gap. I think it's a much smaller gap for AI research than it is for many other parts of the economy. Let's say we are talking about car manufacturing and you're trying to get an AI to do everything that happens there. Man, it's such a messy process. There's a million different parts of the supply chain. There's all this tacit knowledge and all the human workers' minds. It's going to be really tough. There's going to be a very big gap going from those benchmarks to actually fully automating the supply chain for cars.For automating what OpenAI does, there's still a gap, but it's much smaller, because firstly, all of the work is virtual. Everyone at OpenAI could, in principle, work remotely. Their top research scientists, they're just on a computer all day. They're not picking up bricks and doing stuff like that. So also that already means it's a lot less messy. You get a lot less of that kind of messy world reality stuff slowing down adoption. And also, a lot of it is coding, and coding is almost uniquely clean in that, for many coding tasks, you can define clearly defined metrics for success, and so that makes AI much better. You can just have a go. Did AI succeed in the test? If not, try something else or do a gradient set update.That said, there's still a lot of messiness here, as any coder will know, when you're writing good code, it's not just about whether it does the function that you've asked it to do, it needs to be well-designed, it needs to be modular, it needs to be maintainable. These things are much harder to evaluate, and so AIs often pass our benchmarks because they can do the function that you asked it to do, the code runs, but they kind of write really spaghetti code — code that no one wants to look at, that no one can understand, and so no company would want to use that.So there's still going to be a pretty big benchmark-to-reality gap, even for OpenAI, and I think that's one of the big uncertainties in terms of, will this happen in three years versus will this happen in 10 years, or even 15 years?Since you brought up the timeline, what's your guess? I didn't know whether to open with that question or conclude with that question — we'll stick it right in the middle of our chat.Great. Honestly, my best guess about this does change more often than I would like it to, which I think tells us, look, there's still a state of flux. This is just really something that's very hard to know about. Predicting the future is hard. My current best guess is it's about even odds that we're able to fully automate OpenAI within the next 10 years. So maybe that's a 50-50.The world with AI research automation (10:59). . . I'm talking about 30 percent growth every year. I think it gets faster than that. If you want to know how fast it eventually gets, you can think about the question of how fast can a kind of self-replicating system double itself?So then what really would be the impact of that kind of AI research automation? How would you go about quantifying that kind of acceleration? What does the world look like?Yeah, so many possibilities, but I think what strikes me is that there is a plausible world where it is just way, way faster than almost everyone is expecting it to be. So that's the world where you fully automate OpenAI, and then we get that feedback loop that I was talking about earlier where AIs make their algorithms way more efficient, now you've got way more of them, then they make their algorithms way more efficient again, now they're way smarter. Now they're thinking a hundred times faster. The feedback loop continues and maybe within six months you now have a billion superintelligent AIs running on this OpenAI data center. The combined cognitive abilities of all these AIs outstrips the whole of the United States, outstrips anything we've seen from any kind of company or entity before, and they can all potentially be put towards any goal that OpenAI wants to. And then there's, of course, the risk that OpenAI's lost control of these systems, often discussed, in which case these systems could all be working together to pursue a particular goal. And so what we're talking about here is really a huge amount of power. It's a threat to national security for any government in which this happens, potentially. It is a threat to everyone if we lose control of these systems, or if the company that develops them uses them for some kind of malicious end. And, in terms of economic impacts, I personally think that that again could happen much more quickly than people think, and we can get into that.In the first paper we mentioned, it was kind of a thought experiment, but you were really talking about moving the decimal point in GDP growth, instead of talking about two and three percent, 20 and 30 percent. Is that the kind of world we're talking about?I speak to economists a lot, and —They hate those kinds of predictions, by the way.Obviously, they think I'm crazy. Not all of them. There are economists that take it very seriously. I think it's taken more seriously than everyone else realizes. It's like it's a bit embarrassing, at the moment, to admit that you take it seriously, but there are a few really senior economists who absolutely know their stuff. They're like, “Yep, this checks out. I think that's what's going to happen.” And I've had conversation with them where they're like, “Yeah, I think this is going to happen.” But the really loud, dominant view where I think people are a little bit scared to speak out against is they're like, “Obviously this is sci-fi.”One analogy I like to give to people who are very, very confident that this is all sci-fi and it's rubbish is to imagine that we were sitting there in the year 1400, imagine we had an economics professor who'd been studying the rate of economic growth, and they've been like, “Yeah, we've always had 0.1 percent growth every single year throughout history. We've never seen anything higher.” And then there was some kind of futurist economist rogue that said, “Actually, I think that if I extrapolate the curves in this way and we get this kind of technology, maybe we could have one percent growth.” And then all the other economists laugh at them, tell them they're insane – that's what happened. In 1400, we'd never had growth that was at all fast, and then a few hundred years later, we developed industrial technology, we started that feedback loop, we were investing more and more resources in scientific progress and in physical capital, and we did see much faster growth.So I think it can be useful to try and challenge economists and say, “Okay, I know it sounds crazy, but history was crazy. This crazy thing happened where growth just got way, way faster. No one would've predicted it. You would not have predicted it.” And I think being in that mindset can encourage people to be like, “Yeah, okay. You know what? Maybe if we do get AI that's really that powerful, it can really do everything, and maybe it is possible.”But to answer your question, yeah, I'm talking about 30 percent growth every year. I think it gets faster than that. If you want to know how fast it eventually gets, you can think about the question of how fast can a kind of self-replicating system double itself? So ultimately, what the economy is going to be like is it's going to have robots and factories that are able to fully create new versions of themselves. Everything you need: the roads, the electricity, the robots, the buildings, all of that will be replicated. And so you can look at actually biology and say, do we have any examples of systems which fully replicate themselves? How long does it take? And if you look at rats, for example, they're able to double the number of rats by grabbing resources from the environment, and giving birth, and whatnot. The doubling time is about six weeks for some types of rats. So that's an example of here's a physical system — ultimately, everything's made of physics — a physical system that has some intelligence that's able to go out into the world, gather resources, replicate itself. The doubling time is six weeks.Now, who knows how long it'll take us to get to AI that's that good? But when we do, you could see the whole physical economy, maybe a part that humans aren't involved with, a whole automated city without any humans just doubling itself every few weeks. If that happens, and the amount of stuff we're able to reduce as a civilization is doubling again on the order of weeks. And, in fact, there are some animals that double faster still, in days, but that's the kind of level of craziness. Now we're talking about 1000 percent growth, at that point. We don't know how crazy it could get, but I think we should take even the really crazy possibilities, we shouldn't fully rule them out.Considering constraints (16:30)I really hope people work less. If we get this good future, and the benefits are shared between all . . . no one should work. But that doesn't stop growth . . .There's this great AI forecast chart put out by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, and I think its main forecast — the one most economists would probably agree with — has a line showing AI improving GDP by maybe two tenths of a percent. And then there are two other lines: one is more or less straight up, and the other one is straight down, because in the first, AI created a utopia, and in the second, AI gets out of control and starts killing us, and whatever. So those are your three possibilities.If we stick with the optimistic case for a moment, what constraints do you see as most plausible — reduced labor supply from rising incomes, social pushback against disruption, energy limits, or something else?Briefly, the ones you've mentioned, people not working, 100 percent. I really hope people work less. If we get this good future, and the benefits are shared between all — which isn't guaranteed — if we get that, then yeah, no one should work. But that doesn't stop growth, because when AI and robots can do everything that humans do, you don't need humans in the loop anymore. That whole thing is just going and kind of self-replicating itself and making as many goods as services as we want. Sure, if you want your clothes to be knitted by a human, you're in trouble, then your consumption is stuck. Bad luck. If you're happy to consume goods and services produced by AI systems or robots, fine if no one wants to work.Pushback: I think, for me, this is the biggest one. Obviously, the economy doubling every year is very scary as a thought. Tech progress will be going much faster. Imagine if you woke up and, over the course of the year, you go from not having any telephones at all in the world, to everyone's on their smartphones and social media and all the apps. That's a transition that took decades. If that happened in a year, that would be very disconcerting.Another example is the development of nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons were developed over a number of years. If that happened in a month, or two months, that could be very dangerous. There'd be much less time for different countries, different actors to figure out how they're going to handle it. So I think pushback is the strongest one that we might as a society choose, “Actually, this is insane. We're going to go slower than we could.” That requires, potentially, coordination, but I think there would be broad support for some degree of coordination there.Worries and what-ifs (19:07)If suddenly no one has any jobs, what will we want to do with ourselves? That's a very, very consequential transition for the nature of human society.I imagine you certainly talk with people who are extremely gung-ho about this prospect. What is the common response you get from people who are less enthusiastic? Do they worry about a future with no jobs? Maybe they do worry about the existential kinds of issues. What's your response to those people? And how much do you worry about those things?I think there are loads of very worrying things that we're going to be facing. One class of pushback, which I think is very common, is worries about employment. It's a source of income for all of us, employment, but also, it's a source of pride, it's a source of meaning. If suddenly no one has any jobs, what will we want to do with ourselves? That's a very, very consequential transition for the nature of human society. I think people aren't just going to be down to just do it. I think people are scared about three AI companies literally now taking all the revenues that all of humanity used to be earning. It is naturally a very scary prospect. So that's one kind of pushback, and I'm sympathetic with it.I think that there are solutions, if we find a way to tax AI systems, which isn't necessarily easy, because it's very easy to move physical assets between countries. It's a lot easier to tax labor than capital already when rich people can move their assets around. We're going to have the same problem with AI, but if we can find a way to tax it, and we maintain a good democratic country, and we can just redistribute the wealth broadly, it can be solved. So I think it's a big problem, but it is doable.Then there's the problem of some people want to stop this now because they're worried about AI killing everyone. Their literally worry is that everyone will be dead because superintelligent AI will want that to happen. I think there's a real risk there. It's definitely above one percent, in my opinion. I wouldn't go above 10 percent, myself, but I think it's very scary, and that's a great reason to slow things down. I personally don't want to stop quite yet. I think you want to stop when the AI is a bit more powerful and a bit more useful than it is today so it can kind of help us figure out what to do about all of this crazy stuff that's coming.On what side of that line is AI as an AI researcher?That's a really great question. Should we stop? I think it's very hard to stop just after you've got the AI researcher AI, because that's when it's suddenly really easy to go very, very fast. So my out-of-the-box proposal here, which is probably very flawed, would be: When we're within a few spits distance — not spitting distance, but if you did that three times, and we can see we're almost at that AI automating OpenAI — then you pause, because you're not going to accidentally then go all the way. It is actually still a little bit a fair distance away, but it's actually still, at that point, probably a very powerful AI that can really help.Then you pause and do what?Great question. So then you pause, and you use your AI systems to help you firstly solve the problem of AI alignment, make extra, double sure that every time we increase the notch of AI capabilities, the AI is still loyal to humanity, not to its own kind of secret goals.Secondly, you solve the problem of, how are we going to make sure that no one person in government or no one CEO of an AI company ensures that this whole AI army is loyal to them, personally? How are we going to ensure that everyone, the whole world gets influenced over what this AI is ultimately programmed to do? That's the second problem.And then there's just a whole host of other things: unemployment that we've talked about, competition between different countries, US and China, there's a whole host of other things that I think you want to research on, figure out, get consensus on, and then slowly ratchet up the capabilities in what is now a very safe and controlled way.What else should we be working on? What are you working on next?One problem I'm excited about is people have historically worried about AI having its own goals. We need to make it loyal to humanity. But as we've got closer, it's become increasingly obvious, “loyalty to humanity” is very vague. What specifically do you want the AI to be programmed to do? I mean, it's not programmed, it's grown, but if it were programmed, if you're writing a rule book for AI, some organizations have employee handbooks: Here's the philosophy of the organization, here's how you should behave. Imagine you're doing that for the AI, but you're going super detailed, exactly how you want your AI assistant to behave in all kinds of situations. What should that be? Essentially, what should we align the AI to? Not any individual person, probably following the law, probably loads of other things. I think basically designing what is the character of this AI system is a really exciting question, and if we get that right, maybe the AI can then help us solve all these other problems.Maybe you have no interest in science fiction, but is there any film, TV, book that you think is useful for someone in your position to be aware of, or that you find useful in any way? Just wondering.I think there's this great post called “AI 2027,” which lays out a concrete scenario for how AI could go wrong or how maybe it could go right. I would recommend that. I think that's the only thing that's coming top of mind. I often read a lot of the stuff I read is I read a lot of LessWrong, to be honest. There's a lot of stuff from there that I don't love, but a lot of new ideas, interesting content there.Any fiction?I mean, I read fiction, but honestly, I don't really love the AI fiction that I've read because often it's quite unrealistic, and so I kind of get a bit overly nitpicky about it. But I mean, yeah, there's this book called Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality, which I read maybe 10 years ago, which I thought was pretty fun.On sale everywhere The Conservative Futurist: How To Create the Sci-Fi World We Were Promised Faster, Please! is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit fasterplease.substack.com/subscribe

Alexander Wolman discusses the Federal Reserve's recent unveiling of its revised Statement of Policy Goals, highlighting what has changed and what has remained consistent with past statements. Wolman is vice president for monetary and macroeconomic research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2025/speaking_2025_11_19_fed_framework_followup

Kevin talks about the beginning of he and his wife's quest for their Thanksgiving feast ingredients and covers the following stories: food inflation estimates from the beginning of the year versus the actual price increases; in addition to Walmart's announcement, last month, lowering the cost of the Thanksgiving, Target announces price reductions across the board, as well as, their Thanksgiving meal prices; the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's "nowcast" estimated present inflation levels because the Government Shutdown delayed the release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics; Trump cuts tariffs certain food items; Kevin has the details, sifts through the data, put the information into historical perspective, offers his insights and a few opinions.

Kevin talks about the beginning of he and his wife's quest for their Thanksgiving feast ingredients and covers the following stories: food inflation estimates from the beginning of the year versus the actual price increases; in addition to Walmart's announcement, last month, lowering the cost of the Thanksgiving, Target announces price reductions across the board, as well as, their Thanksgiving meal prices; the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's "nowcast" estimated present inflation levels because the Government Shutdown delayed the release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics; Trump cuts tariffs certain food items; Kevin has the details, sifts through the data, put the information into historical perspective, offers his insights and a few opinions.

You're listening to American Ground Radio with Louis R. Avallone and Stephen Parr. This is the full show for November 14, 2025. 0:30 We dig into a surprising new analysis from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco that challenges decades of economic dogma. For nearly a century, experts have insisted that tariffs raise prices and cripple economies—but a 150-year review of data from the U.S., UK, and France shows the opposite. We break down how tariffs can lower prices, strengthen domestic manufacturing, reduce foreign dependency, and expose the myths that fueled the rise of global competitors like China. And we look at how new trade deals and shifting economic power are reshaping American industry in real time. 9:30 Plus, we cover the Top 3 Things You Need to Know. The Prosecution against President Trump from Georgia will move forward with Peter Skandalakis as the prosecutor. California Congressman Eric Swalwell, who previously was accused of having an affair with a Chinese spy, is now accused of falsifying loans. Democrat Jared Golden of Maine announced this week he won't be seeking reelection to Congress. 12:30 Get Performlyte from Victory Nutrition International for 20% off. Go to vni.life/agr and use the promo code AGR20. 13:30 We break down the debate over H-1B visas, fraud in the system, and the growing rift inside the Republican Party over immigration and specialized labor. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s proposal to cap visas and crack down on abuse faces pushback after President Trump argues that certain specialized skills simply don’t exist in sufficient numbers here at home. We explore why most H-1B visas aren’t going to top-tier engineers, how major tech and outsourcing firms have become the biggest beneficiaries, and why national security concerns are now shaping the conversation about who should—or shouldn’t—be filling America’s most sensitive industrial and defense roles. 16:00 American Mamas Teri Netterville and Kimberly Burleson react to the backlash surrounding Sydney Sweeney’s latest film, Christie—a biopic about 1990s boxer Christy Martin—and why the movie world has turned on one of its brightest young stars. Despite keeping her politics private, Sweeney has been labeled “problematic” after reports surfaced that she’s a registered Republican. Now, after the film’s disappointing box office debut, some in the industry are blaming her for its performance.We explore the double standard in Hollywood—how major flops from firmly left-leaning stars barely make a ripple, while Sweeney’s misstep draws vitriol from actors like Ruby Rose. We also highlight Christy Martin’s heartfelt defense of Sweeney, pushing back against claims that she “ruined” the film. If you'd like to ask our American Mamas a question, go to our website, AmericanGroundRadio.com/mamas and click on the Ask the Mamas button. 22:00 We break down the economic pressures shaping young voters—and how those frustrations helped propel Zoran Mamdani to victory in New York City. We examine the growing resentment around rent, wages, and soaring personal debt, including the staggering $1.2 trillion in U.S. credit card balances. 24:30 We Dig Deep into a new Gallup report showing one of the sharpest drops in religiosity anywhere in the world—and what that means for America’s future.We break down the 17-point decline in Americans who say faith is an important part of daily life, and why the Founders believed a moral and religious people were essential to preserving freedom. We look at how this vacuum of belief is being filled—not by God, but by government. From New York City’s Zoran Mamdani declaring that no problem is too big for government to solve, to the rise of political and ideological substitutes for religion, misplaced faith in bureaucracy threatens liberty itself. 31:30 Get Prodovite Plus from Victory Nutrition International for 20% off. Go to vni.life/agr and use the promo code AGR20. 32:00 We break down a sprawling, mob-linked sports betting ring that stretched across college campuses and pulled in student-athletes. We discuss how the explosion of legalized sports gambling, combined with the massive money flowing through today’s NIL era, has created fertile ground for corruption and chaos. From point-shaving schemes to young athletes being pressured by organized crime, we look at how institutions once built on discipline and merit have drifted into moral relativism and cash-driven incentives. And as New Jersey authorities uncover a multi-million-dollar criminal pipeline tied to college programs, the warning signs are getting harder to ignore. 35:00 Plus, it's Fake News Friday! We're putting you to the test with our weekly game of headlines—are they real news, fake news, or really fake news? From TSA bonuses and collapsing bridges, to chart-topping AI-generated music, Tiktok scandals, and even Tucker Carlson's interview with Bigfoot, can you spot the fake news? Play along, keep score, and share your results with us on Facebook page: facebook.com/AmericanGroundRadio. 39:00 We take a look at the Democratic National Committee’s latest internal drama: staffers being ordered back to the office after years of remote work. Long-distance governing may have contributed to the party’s recent missteps, but they aren't too happy about returning to the office and we're saying, "Whoa." 41: And we finish off with a young man with integrity. After turning in some lost cash, he was rewarded with a job. Follow us: americangroundradio.com Facebook: facebook.com / AmericanGroundRadio Instagram: instagram.com/americangroundradio See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week, we cover the historic end of U.S. penny production resulting from high manufacturing costs and obsolescence. Market updates focused on lingering uncertainty due to delayed economic data from the recent government shutdown, while Federal Reserve policy remains unclear, with rate cuts seen as a toss up ahead of December's meeting. With holiday shopping well underway, we discuss consumer trends, noting resilience despite crosscurrents like tariffs and inflation, with strong performance from major retailers and signs of a “K-shaped” economy. Overall, our current outlook suggests cautious optimism for 2026, supported by fiscal and monetary tailwinds.Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy, Key Wealth,George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer, Key WealthRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income, Key WealthBradley Thomas, Managing Director of Equity Research, KeyBanc Capital Markets 00:23 –The U.S. Mint has stopped producing pennies after 232 years due to high manufacturing costs, sparking discussion on its economic implications and impact on transactions.02:03 –The recent and historic 43-day government shutdown has finally ended. We discuss its impact, and the resulting delays in critical economic reports like unemployment claims, CPI, and retail sales, and its role in creating uncertainty across markets.06:18 – We highlight uncertainty around Federal Reserve policy and changes, potential December rate cuts, the lack of clarity due to missing data, and upcoming leadership turnover, including the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Raphael Bostic's planned retirement in February and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term as Fed Chair ending in 2026.11:20 – Special guest Brad Thomas, Managing Director of Equity Research with KeyBanc Capital Markets, joins the podcast this week to discuss consumer resilience amid crosscurrents such as tariffs and inflation, noting strong performance from major retailers, bifurcation between affluent and lower-income consumers, and shifts in spending patterns toward home-related goods.16:09 –Our experts examine how tariff increases could affect holiday shopping, with potential price pressures in categories like toys, and how retailers are managing these challenges.19:02 –Rising delinquencies in credit cards and loans are rising concerns for lower-income consumers, while overall outlook remains cautiously optimistic thanks to anticipated fiscal and monetary stimulus supporting spending and investment opportunities.  Additional ResourcesRead: Higher Education Changes in Recent YearsPrepare: Top 10 2025 Year-End Planning Strategies for Business Owners Key QuestionsSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterWeekly Investment BriefFollow us on LinkedIn

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:17532056201798502,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-9437-3289"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");pt> Target is lowering its prices for Thanksgiving just like Walmart. This is going to be a cheap holiday for the people. Inflation has been tamed and with lowering fuel prices Trump is countering the [CB] inflation. Fed Bostic is retiring which will leave an opening for Trump, slowly but surely is gaining control over the Fed. Trump is taking back control of the economy. The [DS] tried everything to take Trump down and it has failed. The pushed the Epstein files hoax on him and he didn't take the bait, now they failed with the shutdown, so they decided they would release the hoax. They took the bait and now they have started the Epstein narrative. Attacks will intensify against Trump team, when the time is right he will strike like a thunderbolt.   Economy Target reduces prices on 3,000 groceries and essentials Target announced Tuesday it is lowering prices on 3,000 food, beverage and essential items, though prices could vary by location and online. This is the latest in a string of initiatives the retailer has rolled out to offer shoppers lower prices. The retailer also announced a $500,000 donation to Feeding America to support its hunger relief efforts amid increased demand at food banks. Lowering prices on thousands of items that shoppers frequently buy “will make a difference for families managing tight household budgets during the holidays,” Lisa Roath, chief merchandising officer of food, essentials and beauty at Target, said in the announcement. The press release noted it will not reduce prices in Alaska and Hawai'i. The price cuts build on Target's growing affordability efforts as the holiday season arrives. The retailer highlighted in the Tuesday announcement its lowest price ever for a Thanksgiving meal, which the retailer unveiled earlier this month. The meal feeds four for less than $5 per person and includes a Good & Gather turkey that costs 79 cents per pound. Source: retaildive.com (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:18510697282300316,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-8599-9832"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); Bessent, Treasurer Striking Final Penny at Philadelphia Mint Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Treasurer Brandon Beach will visit the Philadelphia Mint on Wednesday to oversee production of the final circulating one-cent coin or penny, each of which costs nearly 4 cents to produce, the Treasury Department said. President Donald Trump said in February he was ordering the Treasury to halt what he called the "wasteful" minting of pennies, prompting gas stations, fast-food chains and big-box stores to adjust prices and round cash transactions. Source: newsmax.com https://twitter.com/DoryBeutel/status/1988579974354477175?s=20 More Doves Incoming: Atlanta Fed President Bostic To Retiring Feb 2026 More turnover at the Fed ahead of what can be a historic, for the US central bank, year as Trump prepares to stack the Fed with a deep bench of uber-doves. With the "fired" Lisa Cook's lawsuit marinating at the Supreme Court, moments ago the Atlanta Fed announced that its president Raphael Bostic would retire at the end of his current term in February. Bostic, who in the press release was described as "the first African American and openly gay president of a regional Federal Reserve Bank in its 111-year histo...

In our news wrap Wednesday, President Trump is urging Israel's president to pardon Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in his corruption case, a former aide to California's Gov. Newsom has been indicted on charges related to an alleged scheme to steal campaign money, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is retiring and the U.S. Mint in Philadelphia pressed its last penny. PBS News is supported by - https://www.pbs.org/newshour/about/funders. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy

Daniel Davis talks about the importance of understanding the economies of small towns and rural areas. He also discusses the work that the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond has done to examine these economies and connect with community leaders, including the recent launch of the Richmond Fed's Center for Rural Economies and Investing in Rural America webinar series. Davis is group vice president for regional economics at the Richmond Fed and director of the center. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2025/speaking_2025_11_12_rural_center

On the Wednesday, Nov. 12 edition of Georgia Today: Microsoft opens a huge Atlanta data center; The president and CEO of Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta plans to retire; and Georgians prepare to see the costs of health insurance rise dramatically. 

The Shenandoah Valley is gearing up for its fourth annual Economic Summit, and this year's event promises to be more impactful than ever. In this episode of "The Valley Today," host Janet Michael talks with Kaleigh Fincham, Director of Events for the Top of Virginia Regional Chamber, and Scott Harvard, CEO of First Bank, to discuss what makes this summit a must-attend for business leaders, students, and community members alike. Bridging Local and National Perspectives From the outset, the conversation highlights the summit's unique approach: blending high-level economic analysis with on-the-ground realities. Scott, a long-time supporter and moderator of the event, explains how the summit brings together state and local leaders, ensuring that attendees receive both a macroeconomic overview and practical, region-specific insights. Notably, Tom Barkin, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, returns as keynote speaker, offering his expertise while also listening to the unique challenges and successes of the Shenandoah Valley. Spotlight on Real-World Impact Transitioning from theory to practice, the summit features a panel of local business leaders who share firsthand experiences about navigating economic shifts. This year's panel includes voices from construction, technology, and entrepreneurship, providing a diverse look at how issues like tariffs, inflation, and workforce development play out in the Valley. Scott emphasizes that these discussions are not just academic—they directly inform how local businesses plan for the future, adapt to challenges, and seize new opportunities. Opportunities for All: Networking and Education Beyond the presentations, the summit fosters meaningful connections. Kaleigh describes the event's robust networking opportunities, from breakfast mingling to interactive Q&A sessions with speakers. High school and Shenandoah University students are especially encouraged to attend, gaining exposure to real-world economics and the chance to interact with leaders who shape the region's future. The summit's inclusive ticketing ensures that students can participate for free, reinforcing the event's commitment to education and community growth. Looking Ahead: Building a Resilient Valley As the conversation draws to a close, both guests reflect on the summit's broader significance. By bringing together diverse perspectives and encouraging open dialogue, the event helps the Shenandoah Valley stay resilient in the face of economic uncertainty. Attendees leave not only with new knowledge but also with a sense of shared purpose—ready to tackle the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead. Learn more - and register - here: https://www.regionalchamber.biz/the-economic-summit/ 

In our news wrap Wednesday, President Trump is urging Israel's president to pardon Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in his corruption case, a former aide to California's Gov. Newsom has been indicted on charges related to an alleged scheme to steal campaign money, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is retiring and the U.S. Mint in Philadelphia pressed its last penny. PBS News is supported by - https://www.pbs.org/newshour/about/funders. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said she is focused on inflation and productivity in guiding her assessment of monetary policy and the US economy. She also warned against keeping interest rates too high for too long and discussed historical parallels between the 1970s and the 1990s. She speaks with Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro and Lisa AbramowiczSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem says the US economy has been "pretty resilient" with growth roughly around potential despite recent uncertainty. Speaking with Bloomberg's Mike McKee, Musalem says the labor market is around full employment but is cooling.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There are lots of frustrating elements in comedy, and we're used to them . .. things like drunks or bad set ups. But sometimes there are things that mess up your performance that you couldn't even think up! Here's a quick story about a few times things have thrown me for a loop! https://www.TheWorkLady.com  Jan McInnis is a top change management keynote speaker, comedian, and funny motivational speaker who helps organizations use humor to handle change, build resilience, and strengthen leadership skills. With her laugh-out-loud stories and practical tips, Jan shows audiences how humor isn't just entertainment—it's a business skill that drives communication, connection, and stress relief.   A conference keynote speaker, Master of Ceremonies, and comedy writer, Jan has written material for The Tonight Show with Jay Leno as well as radio, TV, and syndicated cartoon strips. She's the author of two books—Finding the Funny Fast and Convention Comedian—and her insights on humor in business have been featured in The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, and The Huffington Post. For over 25 years, she has been helping leaders and teams discover how to bounce back from setbacks, embrace change, and connect through comedy.   Jan has delivered keynote speeches at thousands of events nationwide, from the Federal Reserve Banks to the Mayo Clinic, for industries that include healthcare, finance, government, education, women's leadership events, technology, and safety & disaster management. Her client list features respected organizations such as: Healthcare: Mayo Clinic, Kaiser Permanente, Abbott Pharmaceuticals, Health Information Management Associations, Assisted Living Associations Finance: Federal Reserve Banks, Merrill Lynch, Transamerica Insurance, BDO Accounting, American Institute of CPAs, credit unions, banking associations Government: U.S. Air Force, Social Security Administration, International Institute of Municipal Clerks, National League of Cities, public utilities, correctional associations Women's Leadership Events: Toyota Women's Conference, Go Red for Women, Speaking of Women's Health, Soroptimists, Women in Insurance & Financial Services Education: State superintendent associations, community college associations, Head Start associations, National Association of Elementary and Middle School Principals Safety & Disaster: International Association of Emergency Managers, Disney Emergency Management, Mid-Atlantic Safety Conference, risk management associations   Her background as a Washington, D.C. marketing executive gives her a unique perspective that blends business acumen with stand-up comedy. Jan was also honored with the Greater Washington Society of Association Executives "Excellence in Education" Award. Along with her podcast Finding the Funny: Leadership Tips from a Comedian, Jan also produces Comedian Stories: Tales From the Road in Under 5 Minutes. Whether she's headlining a major convention, hosting a leadership retreat, or teaching resilience at a safety conference, Jan's programs give audiences the tools to laugh, learn, and lead.  

Andy Bauer, Renee Haltom, and Matt Martin share what they are hearing about economic conditions from their business contacts in the Fifth District. They also discuss variations in conditions by sector and region as well as how businesses currently view labor markets and price levels. Bauer, Haltom, and Martin are regional executives at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2025/speaking_2025_11_05_what_biz_are_saying

Will Roberds is an economist emeritus of the research department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Steve Quinn is a professor of economics at Texas Christian University. In Will and Steve's first appearance on the show they discuss the historical significance of the Bank of Amsterdam, The use of ledger at the Bank of Amsterdam, It's use of repo and open market operations, it's connection to central banking today, and much more. Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on September 23rd, 2025 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our Macro Musings merch! Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel  Timestamps 00:00:00 - Intro 00:00:53 - Bank of Amsterdam 00:10:31 - Bank of Amsterdam's Ledger 00:32:09 - Motivations 00:36:49 - Seven Years' War 00:40:53 - The Repo Versus the Open Market 00:56:30 - Outro

It's time to tend to tend to the garden – a little maintenance for the portfolio October does what it usually does Targets raised, analysts are trying to keep up – even if earnings miss And our guest - Danielle DiMartino Booth - the "Fed watcher" NEW! DOWNLOAD THIS EPISODE'S AI GENERATED SHOW NOTES (Guest Segment) As Founder & CEO of Quill Intelligence, Danielle DiMartino Booth set out to launch a #ResearchRevolution, redefining how markets intelligence is conceived and delivered. To build QI, she brought together a core team of investing veterans to analyze the trends and provide critical analysis on what is driving the markets – both in the United States and globally. A global thought leader on monetary policy, economics and finance, DiMartino Booth founded Quill Intelligence in 2018. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider's Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), has a column on Bloomberg View, is a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets. Prior to Quill, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas where she served as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy. DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette where she worked in the fixed income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio: she holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University. Follow @DiMartinoBooth Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy - https://thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/tdi-strategy/ Stocks mentioned in this episode: (AMZN), (GLD), (BTCUSD), (ORCL), (GOOG), (SMR), (CEG), (GEV), (AMD)

When gas prices skyrocket, do station owners get a windfall? And where do their profits really come from? Zachary Crockett pulls up to the pump. SOURCES:Garrett Golding, assistant vice president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.Jeetander P. Sethi, founding member of the American Petroleum and Convenience Store Association.Kai Trimble-Lea, owner of a B.P. gas station in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. RESOURCES:"Top Numbers Driving America's Gasoline Demand," by Lem Smith (American Petroleum Institute, 2022)."Electric Cars Are Coming. How Long Until They Rule the Road?" by Brad Plumer, Nadja Popovich and Blacki Migliozzi (The New York Times, 2021)."Petroleum & Other Liquids," (U.S. Energy Information Administration). EXTRAS:"In the 1890s, the Best-Selling Car Was … Electric," by Freakonomics Radio (2022)."Is it Too Late for General Motors to Go Electric?" by Freakonomics Radio (2020).  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The U.S. economy is headed for financial collapse. Repo market stress. Private credit market liquidity crunch. Subprime lending crisis. Spiraling deficits. Basis trade exposure. Dollar debasement. U.S. states in recession. Oil market contango. Tariff and trade wars. Each of these are like explosive devices hiding in the corners of the economic edifice that is the U.S. economy. And the Federal Reserve just released a shocking paper that exposes the biggest potential threat of all. Explosive devices have been set all around the economy and a new bomb was just uncovered in the most unlikely of places. Chapters Intro: 00:05:21 Chapter One: The Road to Economic Hegemony. 00:06:24 Chapter Two: Collision Course. 00:30:55 Chapter Three: Hidden Bomb. 00:35:50 Chapter Four: Bring It Home, Max. 00:44:50 Resources The Lead Left: Middle Market & Private Credit – 2/10/2025 Mark Zandi on X Axios: 22 states are in a recession or close to it, new analysis finds The Fed: The Cross-Border Trail of the Treasury Basis Trade FSB: Leverage in Nonbank Financial Intermediation: Final report Morningstar: Official data dramatically underestimates hedge funds' involvement in the Treasury market, Fed paper finds Federal Reserve Bank of New York: Repo Operations Fidelity: Investor behind Zions, Western Alliance bad loans is tied to $270 million in troubled debt Car Dealership Guy: Tricolor: The messy collapse of a subprime auto lender explained Investopedia: Basis Trading: Definition, How It Works, Example The Guardian: What is private credit, and should we be worried by the collapse of US firms? OilPrice.com: Oil Market Braces for Contango and Shale Slowdown -- If you like #UNFTR, please leave us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts and Spotify: unftr.com/rate and follow us on Facebook, Bluesky, TikTok and Instagram at @UNFTRpod. Visit us online at unftr.com. Join our Discord at unftr.com/discord. Become a member at unftr.com/memberships. Buy yourself some Unf*cking Coffee at shop.unftr.com. Visit our bookshop.org page at bookshop.org/shop/UNFTRpod to find the full UNFTR book list, and find book recommendations from our Unf*ckers at bookshop.org/lists/unf-cker-book-recommendations. Access the UNFTR Musicless feed by following the instructions at unftr.com/accessibility. Unf*cking the Republic is produced by 99 and engineered by Manny Faces Media (mannyfacesmedia.com). Original music is by Tom McGovern (tommcgovern.com). The show is hosted by Max and distributed by 99.Support the show: https://www.unftr.com/membershipsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Surekha Carpenter and Taylor Pessin share their initial learnings about community development financial institutions that responded to the 2025 CDFI Survey, which is conducted every other year by the Federal Reserve. Carpenter is a senior research analyst and Pessin is an intermediate research analyst, both on the Regional and Community Analysis team at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2025/speaking_2025_10_22_cdfi_survey

Kevin covers the following stories: tariff and trade negotiations are falling into place and the effects are coming into focus with companies looking forward with optimism; many in the media, continue to talk about the release of the of Federal Reserve minutes from their September meeting, Kevin sees contradiction from reality; former Obama Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors and current Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President, Austan Goolsbee, discussed on Fox Business News his "independent" view of the impact of the government shutdown, inflation and tariffs; September Class 8 Truck Sales were reported by Wards Intelligence; Kevin has the details, digs into the data, discusses the information, puts the particulars into historical perspective, offers his insights and opinions.

This week, Kevin Gordon fills in for Kathy Jones. Liz Ann Sonders and Kevin discuss the recent NABE conference and the current state of the markets in light of the government shutdown and recent tariff announcements. They explore the implications for earnings season, the potential impact of AI on productivity, and the challenges facing the labor market. They also cover the importance of upcoming economic data releases and how relying on alternative data could have potential effects on market trends and monetary policy.Then, Liz Ann is joined by Patrick Harker, former president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Harker discusses several economic challenges facing the U.S., including the impact of the government shutdown on economic data, the independence of the Federal Reserve, and the complexities of fiscal policy. He shares his thoughts on the need for better data collection and the role of private-sector data sources, while also addressing the labor market dynamics influenced by immigration policy. Harker reflects on his tenure at the Philadelphia Fed and shares insights on the importance of pragmatic policymaking.Finally, Liz Ann and Kevin take a look ahead at upcoming economic indicators and how the government shutdown could affect future data releases.On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.Important DisclosuresThis material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions.All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab. Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.(1025-WE69) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Episode 693: In this very special episode, Neal and Toby sit down with the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Austan Goolsbee to discuss how the country's central bank is managing the data blackout from the government shutdown. Whether or not AI is actually affecting jobs for early grads or if it's just hype. Also, the importance of the Fed maintaining its independence from political influence. Then, it's an inside look into the voting process of a FOMC meeting.  Get your paper tablet at https://www.remarkable.com today Get your MBD live show tickets here! https://www.tinyurl.com/MBD-HOLIDAY  Subscribe to Morning Brew Daily for more of the news you need to start your day. Share the show with a friend, and leave us a review on your favorite podcast app. Listen to Morning Brew Daily Here:⁠ ⁠⁠https://www.swap.fm/l/mbd-note⁠⁠⁠  Watch Morning Brew Daily Here:⁠ ⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/@MorningBrewDailyShow⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Following economic news too closely can give you feelings of whiplash and confusion, and may not speak to your personal experience. What economic information should you actually pay attention to, and how should you interpret what you hear? Former economics professor and head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Austan Goolsbee, and the CEO of polling and analytics company Gallup, Jon Clifton, break down the economic indicators we come across all the time. They tease apart what's based on data and reality, what's missing, and what's hype and fluff. And how consumers react to economic news, they explain, adds yet another layer of feedback to the equation. Social media influencer and financial advisor Vivian Tu, the founder of advice brand Your Rich BFF, moderates the conversation.

Thomas Lubik discusses how inventories are tracked at the firm and aggregate levels and what fluctuations in these levels over time tell us about the health of the overall economy. Lubik is a senior advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Full transcript and related links: https://www.richmondfed.org/podcasts/speaking_of_the_economy/2025/speaking_2025_10_15_inventories

Austan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and a voter on the Fed's interest rate-setting committee, speaks to the FT's economics commentator Chris Giles about the outlook for the US economy amid a boom in AI investment, sluggish hiring, President Donald Trump's tariffs and continued attacks by the White House on central bank independence.Chris Giles is the FT's economics commentator. You can sign up to his newsletter here. Chris' FT interview with Austan Goolsbee is here: ‘Top Federal Reserve Official warns against a quick series of rate cuts' Join top FT journalists Chris Giles, Katie Martin, Claire Jones and special guest Lael Brainard on October 23, 1200 GMT for an exclusive subscriber webinar, Markets on edge: central banks, bonds and the risks ahead. Register now and put your questions directly to our panel. Visit ft.com/edgeSubscribe to The Economics Show on Apple, Spotify, Pocket Casts or wherever you listen. This episode was produced by Lulu Smyth and Persis Love with original music from Breen Turner. Sound design and mix by Jean-Marc Eck. Andrew Giorgiadis is our broadcast engineer. Our executive producer is Manuela Saragosa.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Diving into the history of Morgan Stanley's first bond deal, our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets explains the value of high-quality corporate bonds.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Today, a look at the first bond that Morgan Stanley helped issue 90 years ago and what it might tell us about market uncertainty. It's Thursday, October 9th at 4pm in London. In times of uncertainty, it's common to turn to history. And this we think also applies to financial markets. The Great Depression began roughly 95 years ago. Of its many causes, one was that the same banks that were shepherding customer deposits were also involved in much riskier and more volatile financial market activity. And so, when the stock market crashed, falling over 40 percent in 1929, and ultimately 86 percent from a peak to a trough in 1932, unsuspecting depositors often found their banks overwhelmed by this market maelstrom. The Roosevelt administration took office in March of 1933 and set about trying to pick up the pieces. Many core aspects that we associate with modern financial life from FDIC insurance to social security to the somewhat unique American 30-year mortgage rose directly out of policies from this administration and the financial ashes of this period. There was also quite understandably, a desire to make banking safer. And so the Glass Steagall Act mandated that banks had a choice. They could either do the traditional deposit taking and lending, or they could be active in financial market trading and underwriting. In response to these new separations, Morgan Stanley was founded 90 years ago in 1935 to do the latter. It was a very uncertain time. The U.S. economy was starting to recover under President Roosevelt's New Deal policies, but unemployment was still over 17 percent. Europe's economy was struggling, and the start of the Second World War would be only four years away. The S&P Composite Equity Index, which currently sits at a level of around 6,700, was at 12. It was into this world that Morgan Stanley brought its first bond deal, a 30-year corporate bond for a AA rated U.S. utility. And so, listeners, what do you think that that sort of bond yielded all those years ago? Luckily for us, the good people at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis digitized a vast array of old financial newspapers. And so, we can see what the original bond yielded in the announcement. The first bond, Morgan Stanley helped issue with a 30-year maturity and a AA rating had a yield of just 3.55 percent. That was just 70 basis points over what a comparable U.S. treasury bond offered at the time. Anniversaries are nice to celebrate, but we think this example has some lessons for the modern day. Above anything, it's a clear data point that even in very uncertain economic times, high quality corporate bonds can trade at very low spreads – much lower than one might intuitively expect. Indeed, the extra spread over government bonds that investors required for a 30-year AA rated utility bond 90 years ago, in the immediate aftermath of the Great Depression is almost exactly the same as today. It's one more reason why we think we have to be quite judicious about turning too negative on corporate credit too early, even if the headline spreads look low. Thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also, please tell a friend or colleague about us today.

Raphael Bostic is the president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. In President Bostic's first appearance on the show, he discusses his love of birding, what that teaches him about central banking, the unique role of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, switching for FIT to FAIT back to FIT, what to do about inflation, the importance of globalization, rising fiscal pressures, and much more.   Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on September 23rd, 2025 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow President Raphasel Bostic on X: @RaphaelBostic Follow the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta on X: @AtlantaFed Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our Macro Musings merch! Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel  Timestamps 00:00:00 - Intro 00:01:34 - Birding 00:06:07 - Birding's Connection to Central Banking 00:09:05 - Atlanta Fed 00:15:27 - Fed Framework Revisions 00:24:31 - Inflation 00:32:23 - Forecasted Long-Run Federal Funds Rate 00:37:43 - Globalization 00:39:13 - Fiscal Pressures 01:03:39 - Outro

Markets are having to digest a lot right now. There's the government shutdown, plus new private payroll data showing the economy lost jobs in September. Susan Schmidt, portfolio manager at Exchange Capital Resources, joins us to break it down. Also on the show: the FAFSA portal is open. We look at what's different with this year's federal student aid applications and how the government shutdown could impact the process. Then, Marketplace's Sabri Ben-Achour continues his conversation with Susan M. Collins, head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

The slow-moving train wreck we've been watching unfold for a week, has indeed wrecked: the government officially shutdown at midnight. Hundreds of thousands of federal workers will be furloughed, and the Trump administration is threatening to fire others. Later in the show, Marketplace's Sabri Ben-Achour sits down with Susan M. Collins, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. They'll discuss tariffs, a cooling labor market and how the central bank is affected by a government shutdown.

Markets are having to digest a lot right now. There's the government shutdown, plus new private payroll data showing the economy lost jobs in September. Susan Schmidt, portfolio manager at Exchange Capital Resources, joins us to break it down. Also on the show: the FAFSA portal is open. We look at what's different with this year's federal student aid applications and how the government shutdown could impact the process. Then, Marketplace's Sabri Ben-Achour continues his conversation with Susan M. Collins, head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

The slow-moving train wreck we've been watching unfold for a week, has indeed wrecked: the government officially shutdown at midnight. Hundreds of thousands of federal workers will be furloughed, and the Trump administration is threatening to fire others. Later in the show, Marketplace's Sabri Ben-Achour sits down with Susan M. Collins, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. They'll discuss tariffs, a cooling labor market and how the central bank is affected by a government shutdown.

A lot of jobs in the modern economy don't pay a living wage, and some of those jobs may be wiped out by new technologies. So what's to be done? We revisit an episode from 2016 for a potential solution. SOURCES:Erik Brynjolfsson, professor of economics at Stanford University.Evelyn Forget, professor of economics and community health sciences at the University of Manitoba.Sam Altman, C.E.O. of OpenAI.Robert Gordon, professor emeritus of economics at Northwestern University.Greger Larson, professor of archeology at the University of Oxford. RESOURCES:"Here's what a Sam Altman-backed basic income experiment found," by Megan Cerullo (CBS News, 2024).Utopia for Realists, by Rutger Bregman. The Correspondent (2016).The Second Machine Age, by Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee (2014)."The Town With No Poverty: Using Health Administration Data To Revisit Outcomes of a Canadian Guaranteed Annual Income Field Experiment," by Evelyn Forget (Canadian Public Policy, 2011)."The Negative Income Tax and the Evolution of U.S. Welfare Policy," by Robert Moffitt (Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2003).Capitalism and Freedom, by Milton Freidman (2002)."Lesson from the Income Maintenance Experiments," (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and The Brookings Institution, 1986).Law, Legislation and Liberty, Volume 3: The Political Order of A Free People, by Frederick Hayek (1981)."Daniel Moynihan and President-elect Nixon: How charity didn't begin at home," by Peter Passell and Leonard Ross (New York Times, 1973)."Income Maintenance Programs," (Hearings Before The Subcommittee On Fiscal Policy Of The Joint Economic Committee Congress Of The United States, 1968). EXTRAS:"President Nixon Unveils the Family Assistance Program," (1969)."Milton Friedman interview with William F Buckley Jr.," (1968)."Martin Luther King Jr. advocates for Guaranteed Income at Stanford," (1967). Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

#643: Picture this: you're at the Federal Reserve years ago. The chairman literally hangs up a conference call, waits 30 minutes, then calls back — suddenly everyone agrees on the rate decision.  That's the kind of insider story Karsten Jeske (“Big ERN”) shares when he joins us to break down what's happening with the economy right now. Karsten worked at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta for eight years, then spent a decade on Wall Street at Bank of New York Mellon.  Today he runs the popular Early Retirement Now website, where he applies his economist background to help people understand money and markets. You'll hear Karsten explain why the Fed is about to start cutting interest rates. The futures markets are pricing in a 90 percent chance of a quarter-point cut, with more cuts likely through the end of the year.  But why? After all, inflation just ticked up in the latest CPI report, yet the Fed is still planning to lower rates. We dive into how this affects real people. If you're thinking about buying or selling a house, Karsten suggests acting sooner rather than later.  He explains the "buy the rumor, sell the news" principle – the bond market may have already priced in the good news about rate cuts, so waiting might not help you. The conversation covers some surprising economics too. Did you know that high interest rates can actually cause housing inflation?  When mortgage rates are expensive, fewer people build new homes, which drives up prices. It's the opposite of what most people think happens. Karsten walks through the recent jobs report revisions that caught everyone off guard. The government had to subtract nearly a million jobs from their previous estimates. He explains how this happens – it's not that officials are making up numbers, but tracking new businesses is genuinely hard to do in real time. You'll also learn about two Fed tools most people haven't heard of: the dot plot and R-star. The dot plot shows where Fed officials think interest rates should go over time. R-star represents the theoretical perfect interest rate when the economy has no problems — currently around 3 percent. The interview wraps up with Carsten's take on Fed culture. The consensus-building era under Greenspan is giving way to more dissenting votes, which actually makes the central bank more like it was decades ago under Paul Volcker. Enjoy! Timestamps: Note: Timestamps will vary on individual listening devices based on dynamic advertising run times. The provided timestamps are approximate and may be several minutes off due to changing ad lengths. (0:00) Podcast introduction and guest background Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Beef is getting more expensive, and it doesn't look as though that's going to change any time soon. That's the view of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, which wrote in its Beige Book entry this month that the trend of rising beef prices continues. There's solid demand for beef, but falling supply, as production decreases. Ranchers are making more per cow, but their costs are rising. We speak with a rancher in Wyoming to learn what high beef prices mean for him and other ranchers. Related episodes: What happened to US farmers during the last trade war How USAID cuts hurt American farmers For sponsor-free episodes of The Indicator from Planet Money, subscribe to Planet Money+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org. Fact-checking by Sierra Juarez. Music by Drop Electric. Find us: TikTok, Instagram, Facebook, Newsletter.  Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Today, we're pulling back the curtain on one of the most powerful institutions in the global economy: the Federal Reserve. The Fed's meeting later this month isn't the only reason the central bank is in the headlines. Between President Trump's push to oust both the BLS Commissioner and Fed Governor Lisa Cook, and his mounting public pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, all eyes are on the Fed like never before. In this special joint episode of Money Rehab and Mo News, Nicole and Mosh are joined by Austan Goolsbee, FOMC member and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.  Goolsbee shares what it's like to be in historic Fed meetings, breaks down the balancing act between inflation and interest rates, and weighs in on the critical role of the Fed's independence. They also dig into whether the data that guides these billion-dollar decisions is still up to snuff in 2025, and what interest rates might actually look like in the months ahead. If you want to know where interest rates—and the economy—are headed, this is the episode to take to the bank. Subscribe to Mo News Follow Austan Goolsbee's work This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any financial decisions or investments. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US-listed, registered securities, options and bonds in a self-directed account are offered by Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA & SIPC. Public Investing offers a High-Yield Cash Account where funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance; Public Investing is not a bank. Cryptocurrency trading services are offered by Bakkt Crypto Solutions, LLC (NMLS ID 1890144), which is licensed to engage in virtual currency business activity by the NYSDFS. Cryptocurrency is highly speculative, involves a high degree of risk, and has the potential for loss of the entire amount of an investment. Cryptocurrency holdings are not protected by the FDIC or SIPC.  *APY as of 6/30/25, offered by Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Rate subject to change. See terms of IRA Match Program here: public.com/disclosures/ira-match.