Podcasts about Adept

What does it take to keep a family business thriving for generations? In this episode of Unstoppable Mindset, I talk with Jan Southern, a seasoned business advisor who helps family-owned companies build long-term success through structure, trust, and clarity. We explore why so many family firms lose their way by the third generation—and what can be done right now to change that story. Jan shares how documenting processes, empowering people, and aligning goals can turn complexity into confidence. We unpack her “Three Ps” framework—People, Process, and Product—and discuss how strong leadership, accountability, and smart AI adoption keep growth steady and sustainable. If you've ever wondered what separates businesses that fade from those that flourish, this conversation will show you how to turn structure into freedom and process into legacy. Highlights: 00:10 – Why unexpected stories reveal how real businesses grow. 01:39 – How early life in Liberal, Kansas shaped a strong work ethic. 07:51 – What a 10,000 sq ft HQ build-out teaches about operations. 09:35 – How a trading floor was rebuilt in 36 hours and why speed matters. 11:21 – Why acquisitions fail without tribal knowledge and culture continuity. 13:19 – What Ferguson Alliance does for mid-market family businesses. 14:08 – Why many family firms don't make it to the third generation. 17:33 – How the 3 Ps—people, process, product—create durable growth. 20:49 – Why empowerment and clear decision rights prevent costly delays. 33:02 – The step-by-step process mapping approach that builds buy-in. 36:41 – Who should sponsor change and how to align managers. 49:36 – Why process docs and succession planning start on day one. 56:21 – Realistic timelines: six weeks to ninety days and beyond. 58:19 – How referrals expand projects across departments. About the Guest: With over 40 years of experience in the realm of business optimization and cost-effective strategies, Jan is a seasoned professional dedicated to revolutionizing company efficiency. From collaborating with large corporations encompassing over 1,000 employees to small 2-person offices, Jan's expertise lies in meticulously analyzing financials, processes, policies and procedures to drive enhanced performance. Since joining Ferguson Alliance in 2024, Jan has become a Certified Exit Planning Advisor and is currently in the process of certification in Artificial Intelligence Consulting and Implementation, adding to her ability to quickly provide businesses with an assessment and tools that will enhance their prosperity in today's competitive landscape. Jan's forte lies in crafting solutions that align with each client's vision, bolstering their bottom line and staffing dynamics. Adept in setting policies that align with company objectives, Jan is renowned for transforming challenges into opportunities for growth and longevity. With a knack for unraveling inefficiencies and analyzing net income, Jan is a go-to expert for family-owned businesses looking to extend their legacy into future generations. Ways to connect with Jan: Email address : Jan@Ferguson-Alliance.com Phone: 713 851 2229 LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jansouthern cepa Website: https://ferguson alliance.com About the Host: Michael Hingson is a New York Times best-selling author, international lecturer, and Chief Vision Officer for accessiBe. Michael, blind since birth, survived the 9/11 attacks with the help of his guide dog Roselle. This story is the subject of his best-selling book, Thunder Dog. Michael gives over 100 presentations around the world each year speaking to influential groups such as Exxon Mobile, AT&T, Federal Express, Scripps College, Rutgers University, Children's Hospital, and the American Red Cross just to name a few. He is Ambassador for the National Braille Literacy Campaign for the National Federation of the Blind and also serves as Ambassador for the American Humane Association's 2012 Hero Dog Awards. https://michaelhingson.com https://www.facebook.com/michael.hingson.author.speaker/ https://twitter.com/mhingson https://www.youtube.com/user/mhingson https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelhingson/ accessiBe Links https://accessibe.com/ https://www.youtube.com/c/accessiBe https://www.linkedin.com/company/accessibe/mycompany/ https://www.facebook.com/accessibe/ Thanks for listening! Thanks so much for listening to our podcast! If you enjoyed this episode and think that others could benefit from listening, please share it using the social media buttons on this page. Do you have some feedback or questions about this episode? Leave a comment in the section below! Subscribe to the podcast If you would like to get automatic updates of new podcast episodes, you can subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts or Stitcher. You can subscribe in your favorite podcast app. You can also support our podcast through our tip jar https://tips.pinecast.com/jar/unstoppable-mindset . Leave us an Apple Podcasts review Ratings and reviews from our listeners are extremely valuable to us and greatly appreciated. They help our podcast rank higher on Apple Podcasts, which exposes our show to more awesome listeners like you. If you have a minute, please leave an honest review on Apple Podcasts. Transcription Notes: Michael Hingson ** 00:00 Access Cast and accessiBe Initiative presents Unstoppable Mindset. The podcast where inclusion, diversity and the unexpected meet. Hi, I'm Michael Hingson, Chief Vision Officer for accessiBe and the author of the number one New York Times bestselling book, Thunder dog, the story of a blind man, his guide dog and the triumph of trust. Thanks for joining me on my podcast as we explore our own blinding fears of inclusion unacceptance and our resistance to change. We will discover the idea that no matter the situation, or the people we encounter, our own fears, and prejudices often are our strongest barriers to moving forward. The unstoppable mindset podcast is sponsored by accessiBe, that's a c c e s s i capital B e. Visit www.accessibe.com to learn how you can make your website accessible for persons with disabilities. And to help make the internet fully inclusive by the year 2025. Glad you dropped by we're happy to meet you and to have you here with us.   Michael Hingson ** 01:20 Well, hi everyone. I want to welcome you to unstoppable mindset where inclusion, diversity and the unexpected meet. But the neat thing about it is we don't usually deal with inclusion or diversity. We deal with everything, but that because people come on this podcast to tell their own stories, and that's what we get to do today with Jan southern not necessarily anything profound about inclusion or diversity, but certainly the unexpected. And I'm sure we're going to figure out how that happens and what's unexpected about whatever I got to tell you. Before we started, we were just sitting here telling a few puns back and forth. Oh, well, we could always do that, Jan, well, welcome to unstoppable mindset. We're glad you're here. Thank you so much. Glad to be here. Any puns before we start?   Jan Southern ** 02:09 No, I think we've had enough of those. I think we did it   Michael Hingson ** 02:11 in, huh? Yes. Well, cool. Well, I want to thank you for being here. Jan has been very actively involved in a lot of things dealing with business and helping people and companies of all sizes, companies of all sizes. I don't know about people of all sizes, but companies of all sizes in terms of becoming more effective and being well, I'll just use the term resilient, but we'll get into that. But right now, let's talk about the early Jan. Tell us about Jan growing up and all that sort of stuff that's always fun to start with.   Jan Southern ** 02:50 Yes, I grew up in Liberal Kansas, which is a small town just north of the Oklahoma border and a little bit east of New Mexico kind of down in that little Four Corners area. And I grew up in the time when we could leave our house in the morning on the weekends and come home just before dusk at night, and our parents didn't panic, you know. So it was a good it was a good time growing up. I i lived right across the street from the junior high and high school, so I had a hugely long walk to work, I mean,   Michael Hingson ** 03:28 to school,   Jan Southern ** 03:30 yeah, and so, you know, was a, was a cheerleader in high school, and went to college, then at Oklahoma State, and graduated from there, and here I am in the work world. I've been working since I was about 20 years old, and I'd hate to tell you how many years that's been.   Michael Hingson ** 03:51 You can if you want. I won't tell   03:55 nobody will know.   Michael Hingson ** 03:57 Good point. Well, I know it's been a long time I read your bio, so I know, but that's okay. Well, so when you What did you major in in college psychology? Ah, okay. And did you find a bachelor's degree or just bachelor's   Jan Southern ** 04:16 I did not. I got an Mrs. Degree and had two wonderful children and grew up, they've grown up and to become very fine young men with kids of their own. So I have four grandchildren and one great grandchild, so   Michael Hingson ** 04:33 Wowie Zowie, yeah, that's pretty cool. So when you left college after graduating, what did you do?   Jan Southern ** 04:40 I first went to work in a bank. My ex husband was in pharmacy school at Oklahoma, State University of Oklahoma, and so I went to work in a bank. I was the working wife while he went to pharmacy school. And went to work in a bank, and years later, became a bank consultant. So we we lived in Norman, Oklahoma until he was out of school and and as I began having children during our marriage, I went to work for a pediatrician, which was very convenient when you're trying to take care of kids when they're young.   Michael Hingson ** 05:23 Yeah, and what did you What did you do for a pediatrician?   Jan Southern ** 05:27 I was, I was her receptionist, and typed medical charts, so I learned a lot about medicine. Was very she was head of of pediatrics at a local hospital, and also taught at the university. And so I got a great education and health and well being of kids. It was, it was a great job.   Michael Hingson ** 05:51 My my sister in law had her first child while still in high school, and ended up having to go to work. She went to work for Kaiser Permanente as a medical transcriber, but she really worked her way up. She went to college, got a nursing degree, and so on, and she became a nurse. And eventually, when she Well, she didn't retire, but her last job on the medical side was she managed seven wards, and also had been very involved in the critical care unit. Was a nurse in the CCU for a number of years. Then she was tasked. She went to the profit making side of Kaiser, as it were, and she was tasked with bringing paperless charts into Kaiser. She was the nurse involved in the team that did that. So she came a long way from being a medical transcriber.   Jan Southern ** 06:51 Well, she came a long way from being a single mom in high school. That's a great story of success.   Michael Hingson ** 06:56 Well, and she wasn't totally a single mom. She she and the guy did marry, but eventually they they did divorce because he wasn't as committed as he should be to one person, if it were,   Speaker 1 ** 07:10 that's a familiar story. And he also drank and eventually died of cirrhosis of the liver. Oh, that's too bad. Yeah, that's always sad, but, you know, but, but she coped, and her her kids cope. So it works out okay. So you went to work for a pediatrician, and then what did you do?   Jan Southern ** 07:31 Well, after my husband, after he graduated, was transferred to Dallas, and I went to work for a company gardener, Denver company at the time, they've been since purchased by another company. And was because of my experience in banking prior to the pediatrician, I went to work in their corporate cash management division, and I really enjoyed that I was in their corporate cash management for their worldwide division, and was there for about four years, and really enjoyed it. One of my most exciting things was they were moving their headquarters from Quincy, Illinois down to Dallas. And so I had been hired. But since they were not yet in Dallas, I worked with a gentleman who was in charge of putting together their corporate offices. And so we made all the arrangements. As far as we had a got a 10,000 square foot blank space when we started. And our job was to get every desk, every chair, every pen and pencil. And so when somebody moved from Quincy, Illinois, they moved in and they had their desk all set up. Their cuticles were cubicles were ready to go and and they were they could hit the ground running day one, so that,   Michael Hingson ** 09:02 so you, you clearly really got into dealing with organization, I would would say, then, wouldn't, didn't you?   Jan Southern ** 09:11 Yes, yes, that was my, probably my first exposure to to the corporate world and learning exactly how things could be more efficient, more cost effective. And I really enjoyed working for that company.   Michael Hingson ** 09:30 I remember, after September 11, we worked to provide the technology that we were selling, but we provided technology to Wall Street firms so they could recover their data and get set up again to be able to open the stock exchange and all the trading floors on the 17th of September. So the next Monday. And it was amazing, one of the companies was, I think it was Morgan Stanley. Finally and they had to go find new office space, because their office space in the World Trade Center was, needless to say, gone. They found a building in Jersey City that had a floor, they said, about the size of a football field, and from Friday night to Sunday afternoon, they said it took about 36 hours. They brought in computers, including IBM, taking computers from some of their own people, and just bringing them into to Morgan Stanley and other things, including some of the technology that we provided. And within 36 hours, they had completely reconstructed a trading floor. That's amazing. It was, it was absolutely amazing to see that. And you know, for everyone, it was pretty crazy, but Wall Street opened on the 17th and and continued to survive.   Jan Southern ** 10:57 That's a great story.   Michael Hingson ** 10:59 So what did you do? So you did this, this work with the 10,000 square foot space and other things like that. And then what?   Jan Southern ** 11:08 Well, once, once everyone moved into the space in Dallas. Then I began my work in their in their corporate cash management area. And from there, my next job was working in a bank when my my husband, then was transferred back to Tulsa, Oklahoma, and I went back to work in banking. And from that bank, I was there about three to four years, and I was hired then by John Floyd as a as a consultant for banks and credit unions, and I was with that company for 42 years. My gosh, I know that's unusual these days, but I really enjoyed what I did. We did re engineering work and cost effectiveness and banks and credit unions for those 42 years. And so that was where I really cut my teeth on process improvement and continuous improvement, and still in that industry. But their company was bought by a an equity firm. And of course, when that happens, they like to make changes and and bring in their own folks. So those of us who had been there since day one were no longer there.   Michael Hingson ** 12:26 When did that happen?   Jan Southern ** 12:27 That was in 2022   Michael Hingson ** 12:32 so it's interesting that companies do that they always want to bring in their own people. And at least from my perspective, it seems to me that they forget that they lose all the tribal knowledge that people who have been working there have that made the company successful   Jan Southern ** 12:51 Absolutely. So I guess they're still doing well, and they've done well for themselves afterwards, and but, you know, they do, they lose all the knowledge, they lose all of the continuity with the clients. And it's sad that they do that, but that's very, very common.   Michael Hingson ** 13:13 Yeah, I know I worked for a company that was bought by Xerox, and all the company wanted was our technology. All Xerox wanted was the technology. And they lost all of the knowledge that all the people with sales experience and other kinds of experiences brought, because they terminated all of us when the company was fully in the Xerox realm of influence.   Jan Southern ** 13:39 So you know what I went through? Yeah.   Michael Hingson ** 13:42 Well, what did you do after you left that company? After you left John Floyd,   Jan Southern ** 13:47 I left John Floyd, I was under a I was under a non compete, so I kind of knocked around for a couple of years. I was of age where I could have retired, but I wasn't ready to. So then I found Ferguson Alliance, and I'm now a business advisor for family owned businesses, and so I've been with Ferguson just over a year, and doing the same type of work that I did before. In addition to that, I have become a certified Exit Planning advisor, so that I can do that type of work as well. So that's that's my story in a nutshell. As far as employment,   Michael Hingson ** 14:26 what is Ferguson Alliance?   Jan Southern ** 14:29 Ferguson Alliance, we are business advisors for family owned businesses. And the perception is that a family owned business is going to be a small business, but there are over 500,000 family owned businesses in the United States. Our market is the middle market, from maybe 50 employees up to 1000 20 million in revenues, up to, you know, the sky's the limit, and so we do. Do a lot of work as far as whatever can help a family owned business become more prosperous and survive into future generations. It's a sad statistic that most family owned businesses don't survive into the third generation.   Michael Hingson ** 15:16 Why is that?   Jan Southern ** 15:19 I think because they the first the first generation works themselves, their fingers to the bone to get their their business off the ground, and they get successful, and their offspring often enjoy, if you will, the fruits of the labors of their parents and so many of them, once they've gone to college, they don't have an interest in joining the firm, and so they go on and succeed on their own. And then their children, of course, follow the same course from from their work. And so that's really, I think, the primary reason, and also the the founders of the businesses have a tendency to let that happen, I think. And so our coaching programs try to avoid that and help them to bring in the second and third generations so that they can, you know, they can carry on a legacy of their parents or the founders.   Michael Hingson ** 16:28 So what do you do, and what kinds of initiatives do you take to extend the longevity of a family owned business then,   Jan Southern ** 16:39 well, the first thing is that that Rob, who's our founder of our family owned business, does a lot of executive coaching and helps the helps the people who are within the business, be it the founder or being at their second or third generations, and he'll help with coaching them as to how to, hey, get past the family dynamics. Everybody has their own business dynamics. And then you add on top of that, the family dynamics, in addition to just the normal everyday succession of a business. And so we help them to go through those types of challenges, if you will. They're not always a challenge, but sometimes, if there are challenges, Rob's coaching will take them through that and help them to develop a succession plan that also includes a document that says that that governance plan as to how their family business will be governed, in addition to just a simple succession plan, and my role in a lot of that is to make sure that their business is ready to prosper too. You know that their their assessment of as far as whether they're profitable, whether they are their processes are in place, etc, but one of the primary things that we do is to help them make certain that that if they don't want to survive into future generations, that we help them to prepare to either pass it along to a family member or pass it along to someone who's a non family member, right?   Michael Hingson ** 18:34 So I've heard you mentioned the 3p that are involved in extending longevity. Tell me about that. What are the three P's?   Jan Southern ** 18:41 Well, the first p is your people. You know, if you don't take care of your people, be they family members or non family members, then you're not going to be very successful. So making certain that you have a system in place, have a culture in place that takes care of your people. To us, is very key. Once you make sure that your people are in a culture of continuous improvement and have good, solid foundation. In that regard, you need to make sure that your processes are good. That's the second P that that you have to have your processes all documented, that you've authorized your people to make decisions that they don't always have to go to somebody else. If you're a person in the company and you recognize that something's broken, then you need to have empowerment so that your people can make decisions and not always have to get permission from someone else to make certain that those processes continuously are approved improved. That's how to you. Could have became so successful is they installed a product. They called it, I say, a product. They installed a culture. They called it kaizen. And so Kaizen was simply just continuous improvement, where, if you were doing a process and you ask yourself, why did I do it this way? Isn't there a better way? Then, you know, you're empowered to find a better way and to make sure that that that you can make that decision, as long as it fits in with the culture of the company. Then the third P is product. You know, you've got to have a product that people want. I know that you've seen a lot of companies fail because they're pushing a product that nobody wants. And so you make certain that your products are good, your products are good, high quality, and that you can deliver them in the way that you promise. And so those are really the 3p I'd like to go back to process and just kind of one of the things, as you know, we had some horrendous flooding here in Texas recently, and one of the things that happened during that, and not that it was a cause of it, but just one of the things that exacerbated the situation, is someone called to say, Please, we need help. There's flooding going on. It was one of their first responders had recognized that there was a tragic situation unfolding, and when he called into their system to give alerts, someone says, Well, I'm going to have to get approval from my supervisor, with the approval didn't come in time. So what's behind that? We don't know, but that's just a critical point as to why you should empower your people to make decisions when, when it's necessary.   Michael Hingson ** 21:56 I'm sure, in its own way, there was some of that with all the big fires out here in California back in January, although part of the problem with those is that aircraft couldn't fly for 36 hours because the winds were so heavy that there was just no way that the aircraft could fly. But you got to wonder along the way, since they are talking about the fact that the electric companies Southern California, Edison had a fair amount to do with probably a lot a number of the fires igniting and so on, one can only wonder what might have happened if somebody had made different decisions to better prepare and do things like coating the wires so that if they touch, they wouldn't spark and so on that they didn't do. And, you know, I don't know, but one can only wonder.   Jan Southern ** 22:53 It's hard to know, you know, and in our situation, would it have made any difference had that person been able to make a decision on her own? Yeah, I was moving so rapidly, it might not have made any any difference at all, but you just have to wonder, like you said,   Michael Hingson ** 23:10 yeah, there's no way to, at this point, really know and understand, but nevertheless, it is hopefully something that people learn about for the future, I heard that they're now starting to coat wires, and so hopefully that will prevent a lot, prevent a lot of the sparking and so on. I'd always thought about they ought to put everything underground, but coating wire. If they can do that and do it effectively, would probably work as well. And that's, I would think, a lot cheaper than trying to put the whole power grid underground.   Jan Southern ** 23:51 I would think so we did when I was with my prior company. We did a project where they were burying, they were putting everything underground, and Burlington Vermont, and it was incredible what it takes to do that. I mean, you just, we on the outside, just don't realize, you know, there's a room that's like 10 by six underground that carries all of their equipment and things necessary to do that. And I never realized how, how costly and how difficult it was to bury everything. We just have the impression that, well, they just bury this stuff underground, and that's all. That's all it takes. But it's a huge, huge undertaking in order to do that   Michael Hingson ** 24:36 well. And it's not just the equipment, it's all the wires, and that's hundreds and of miles and 1000s of miles of cable that has to be buried underground, and that gets to be a real challenge.   Jan Southern ** 24:47 Oh, exactly, exactly. So another story about cables. We were working in West Texas one time on a project, and we're watching them stretch the. Wiring. They were doing some internet provisioning for West Texas, which was woefully short on in that regard, and they were stringing the wire using helicopters. It was fascinating, and the only reason we saw that is it was along the roadways when we were traveling from West Texas, back into San Antonio, where flights were coming in and out of so that was interesting to watch.   Michael Hingson ** 25:28 Yeah, yeah. People get pretty creative. Well, you know, thinking back a little bit, John Floyd must have been doing something right to keep you around for 42 years.   Jan Southern ** 25:40 Yes, they did. They were a fabulous country company and still going strong. I think he opened in 1981 it's called advantage. Now, it's not John Floyd, but Right, that was a family owned business. That's where I got to cut my teeth on the dynamics of a family owned business and how they should work and how and his niece is one of the people that's still with the company. Whether, now that they're owned by someone else, whether she'll be able to remain as they go into different elements, is, is another question. But yeah, they were, they were great.   Michael Hingson ** 26:20 How many companies, going back to the things we were talking about earlier, how many companies when they're when they buy out another company, or they're bought out by another company, how many of those companies generally do succeed and continue to grow? Do you have any statistics, or do more tend not to than do? Or   Jan Southern ** 26:40 I think that more tend to survive. They tend to survive, though, with a different culture, I guess you would say they they don't retain the culture that they had before. I don't have any firm statistics on that, because we don't really deal with that that much, but I don't they tend to survive with it, with a the culture of the newer company, if they fold them in, yeah.   Michael Hingson ** 27:15 Well, and the reality is to be fair, evolution always takes place. So the John Floyd and say, 2022 wasn't the same as the John Floyd company in 1981   Jan Southern ** 27:31 not at all. No, exactly, not at all.   Michael Hingson ** 27:34 So it did evolve, and it did grow. And so hopefully, when that company was absorbed elsewhere and with other companies, they they do something to continue to be successful, and I but I think that's good. I know that with Xerox, when it bought Kurzweil, who I worked for, they were also growing a lot and so on. The only thing is that their stock started to drop. I think that there were a number of things. They became less visionary, I think is probably the best way to put it, and they had more competition from other companies developing and providing copiers and other things like that. But they just became less visionary. And so the result was that they didn't grow as much as probably they should have.   Jan Southern ** 28:28 I think that happens a lot. Sometimes, if you don't have a culture of continuous improvement and continuous innovation, which maybe they didn't, I'm not that familiar with how they move forward, then you get left behind. You know, I'm I'm in the process right now, becoming certified in artificial intelligent in my old age. And the point that's made, not by the company necessarily that I'm studying with, but by many others, is there's going to be two different kinds of companies in the future. There's going to be those who have adopted AI and those who used to be in business. And I think that's probably fair.   Michael Hingson ** 29:13 I think it is. And I also we talked with a person on this podcast about a year ago, or not quite a year ago, but, but he said, AI will not replace anyone's jobs. People will replace people's jobs with AI, but they shouldn't. They shouldn't eliminate anyone from the workforce. And we ended up having this discussion about autonomous vehicles. And the example that he gave is, right now we have companies that are shippers, and they drive product across the country, and what will happen to the drivers when the driving process becomes autonomous and you have self driving vehicles, driving. Across country. And his point was, what they should do, what people should consider doing is not eliminating the drivers, but while the machine is doing the driving, find and give additional or other tasks to the drivers to do so they can continue to be contributors and become more efficient and help the company become more efficient, because now you've got people to do other things than what they were used to doing, but there are other things that AI won't be able to do. And I thought that was pretty fascinating,   Jan Southern ** 30:34 exactly. Well, my my nephew is a long haul truck driver. He owns a company, and you know, nothing the AI will never be able to observe everything that's going on around the trucking and and you know, there's also the some of the things that that driver can do is those observations, plus they're Going to need people who are going to program those trucks as they are making their way across the country, and so I'm totally in agreement with what your friend said, or your you know, your guests had to say that many other things,   Michael Hingson ** 31:15 yeah, and it isn't necessarily even relating to driving, but there are certainly other things that they could be doing to continue to be efficient and effective, and no matter how good the autonomous driving capabilities are, it only takes that one time when for whatever reason, the intelligence can't do it, that it's good To have a driver available to to to to help. And I do believe that we're going to see the time when autonomous vehicles will be able to do a great job, and they will be able to observe most of all that stuff that goes on around them. But there's going to be that one time and that that happens. I mean, even with drivers in a vehicle, there's that one time when maybe something happens and a driver can't continue. So what happens? Well, the vehicle crashes, or there's another person to take over. That's why we have at least two pilots and airplanes and so on. So right, exactly aspects of it,   Jan Southern ** 32:21 I think so I can remember when I was in grade school, they showed us a film as to what someone's vision of the country was, and part of that was autonomous driving, you know. And so it was, it was interesting that we're living in a time where we're beginning to see that, yeah,   Michael Hingson ** 32:41 we're on the cusp, and it's going to come. It's not going to happen overnight, but it will happen, and we're going to find that vehicles will be able to drive themselves. But there's still much more to it than that, and we shouldn't be in too big of a hurry, although some so called profit making. People may decide that's not true, to their eventual chagrin, but we shouldn't be too quick to replace people with technology totally   Jan Southern ** 33:14 Exactly. We have cars in I think it's Domino's Pizza. I'm not sure which pizza company, but they have autonomous cars driving, and they're cooking the pizza in the back oven of the car while, you know, while it's driving to your location, yeah, but there's somebody in the car who gets out of the car and brings the pizza to my door.   Michael Hingson ** 33:41 There's been some discussion about having drones fly the pizza to you. Well, you know, we'll see,   Jan Southern ** 33:50 right? We'll see how that goes. Yeah,   Michael Hingson ** 33:53 I haven't heard that. That one is really, pardon the pun, flown well yet. But, you know, we'll see. So when you start a process, improvement process program, what are some of the first steps that you initiate to bring that about? Well, the first   Jan Southern ** 34:11 thing that we do, once we've got agreement with their leadership, then we have a meeting with the people who will be involved, who will be impacted, and we tell them all about what's happening, what's going to happen, and make certain that they're in full understanding. And you know, the first thing that you ever hear when you're saying that you're going to be doing a re engineering or process improvement is they think, Oh, you're just going to come in and tell me to reduce my staff, and that's the way I'm going to be more successful. We don't look at it that way at all. We look at it in that you need to be right. Have your staff being the right size, and so in in many cases, in my past. I we've added staff. We've told them, you're under staffed, but the first thing we do is hold that meeting, make certain that they're all in agreement with what's going to happen, explain to them how it's going to happen, and then the next step is that once management has decided who our counterparts will be within the company. Who's going to be working with us to introduce us to their staff members is we sit down with their staff members and we ask them questions. You know, what do you do? How do you do it? What do you Did someone bring it to you. Are you second in line or next in line for some task? And then once you finish with it, what happens to it? Do you give someone else? Is a report produced? Etc. And so once we've answered all of those questions, we do a little a mapping of the process. And once you map that process, then you take it back to the people who actually perform the process, and you ask them, Did I get this right? I heard you say, this? Is this a true depiction of what's happening? And so we make sure that they don't do four steps. And they told us steps number one and three, so that then, once we've mapped that out, that gives us an idea of two of how can things be combined? Can they be combined? Should you be doing what you're doing here? Is there a more efficient or cost effective way of doing it? And we make our recommendations based on that for each process that we're reviewing. Sometimes there's one or two good processes in an area that we're looking at. Sometimes there are hundreds. And so that's that's the basic process. And then once they've said yes, that is correct, then we make our recommendations. We take it back to their management, and hopefully they will include the people who actually are performing the actions. And we make our recommendations to make changes if, if, if it's correct, maybe they don't need to make any changes. Maybe everything is is very, very perfect the way it is. But in most cases, they brought us in because it's not and they've recognized it's not. So then once they've said, yes, we want to do this, then we help them to implement.   Michael Hingson ** 37:44 Who usually starts this process, that is, who brings you in?   Jan Southern ** 37:48 Generally, it is going to be, depending upon the size of the company, but in most cases, it's going to be the CEO. Sometimes it's the Chief Operating Officer. Sometimes in a very large company, it may be a department manager, you know, someone who has the authority to bring us in. But generally, I would say that probably 90% of our projects, it's at the C   Michael Hingson ** 38:19 level office. So then, based on everything that you're you're discussing, probably that also means that there has to be some time taken to convince management below the CEO or CEO or a department head. You've got to convince the rest of management that this is going to be a good thing and that you have their best interest at heart.   Jan Southern ** 38:43 That is correct, and that's primarily the reason that we have for our initial meeting. We ask whoever is the contract signer to attend that meeting and be a part of the discussion to help to ward off any objections, and then to really bring these people along if they are objecting. And for that very reason, even though they may still be objecting, we involve them in the implementation, so an implementation of a of a recommendation has to improve, has to include the validation. So we don't do the work, but we sit alongside the people who are doing the implementation and guide them through the process, and then it's really up to them to report back. Is it working as intended? If it's not, what needs to be changed, what might improve, what we thought would be a good recommendation, and we work with them to make certain that everything works for them. Right? And by the end of that, if they've been the tester, they've been the one who's approved steps along the way, we generally find that they're on board because they're the it's now. They're now the owners of the process. And when they have ownership on something that they've implemented. It's amazing how much more resilient they they think that the process becomes, and now it's their process and not ours.   Michael Hingson ** 40:32 Do you find most often that when you're working with a number of people in a company that most of them realize that there need to be some changes, or something needs to be improved to make the whole company work better. Or do you find sometimes there's just great resistance, and people say no, there's just no way anything is bad.   Jan Southern ** 40:53 Here we find that 90% of the time, and I'm just pulling that percentage out of the air, I would say they know, they know it needs to be changed. And the ones typically, not always, but typically, the ones where you find the greatest resistance are the ones who know it's broken, but they just don't want to change. You know, there are some people who don't want to change no matter what, or they feel threatened that. They feel like that a new and improved process might take their place. You know, might replace them. And that's typically not the case. It's typically not the case at all, that they're not replaced by it. Their process is improved, and they find that they can be much more productive. But the the ones who are like I call them the great resistors, usually don't survive the process either. They are. They generally let themselves go,   Michael Hingson ** 42:01 if you will, more ego than working for the company.   Jan Southern ** 42:05 Yes, exactly, you know, it's kind of like my mom, you know, and it they own the process as it was. We used to laugh and call this person Louise, you know, Louise has said, Well, we've always done it that way. You know, that's probably the best reason 20 years in not to continue to do it same way.   Michael Hingson ** 42:34 We talked earlier about John Floyd and evolution. And that makes perfect sense. Exactly what's one of the most important things that you have to do to prepare to become involved in preparing for a process, improvement project? I think   Jan Southern ** 42:52 the most important thing there's two very important things. One is to understand their culture, to know how their culture is today, so that you know kind of which direction you need to take them, if they're not in a continuous improvement environment, then you need to lead them in that direction if they're already there and they just don't understand what needs to be done. There's two different scenarios, but the first thing you need to do is understand the culture. The second thing that you need to do, other than the culture, is understand their their business. You need to know what they do. Of course, you can't know from the outside how they do it, but you need to know that, for instance, if it's an we're working with a company that cleans oil tanks and removes toxins and foul lines from oil and gas industry. And so if you don't understand at all what they do, it's hard to help them through the processes that they need to go through. And so just learning, in general, what their technology, what their business is about. If you walk in there and haven't done that, you're just blowing smoke. In my mind, you know, I do a lot of research on the technologies that they use, or their company in general. I look at their website, I you know, look at their LinkedIn, their social media and so. And then we request information from them in advance of doing a project, so that we know what their org structure looks like. And I think those things are critical before you walk in the door to really understand their business in general.   Michael Hingson ** 44:53 Yeah, and that, by doing that, you also tend to. To gain a lot of credibility, because you come in and demonstrate that you do understand what they're doing, and people respond well to that, I would think   Jan Southern ** 45:10 they do. You know, one of our most interesting projects in my past was the electric company that I mentioned. There was an electric company in Burlington, Vermont that did their own electric generation. We've never looked at anything like that. We're a bank consultant, and so we learned all about how they generated energy with wood chips and the, you know, the different things. And, you know, there were many days that I was out watching the wood chips fall out of a train and into their buckets, where they then transferred them to a yard where they moved the stuff around all the time. So, you know, it was, it's very interesting what you learn along the way. But I had done my homework, and I knew kind of what they did and not how they did it in individual aspects of their own processes, but I understood their industry. And so it was, you do walk in with some credibility, otherwise they're looking at you like, well, what does this person know about my job?   Michael Hingson ** 46:20 And at the same time, have you ever been involved in a situation where you did learn about the company you you went in with some knowledge, you started working with the company, and you made a suggestion about changing a process or doing something that no one had thought of, and it just clicked, and everybody loved it when they thought about it,   Jan Southern ** 46:42 yes, yes, exactly. And probably that electric company was one of those such things. You know, when they hired us, they they told us. We said, We don't know anything about your business. And they said, Good, we don't want you to come in with any preconceived ideas. And so some of the recommendations we made to them. They were, it's kind of like an aha moment. You know, they look at you like, Oh my gosh. I've never thought of that, you know, the same I would say in in banking and in family businesses, you know, they just, they've never thought about doing things in a certain way.   Michael Hingson ** 47:20 Can you tell us a story about one of those times?   Jan Southern ** 47:24 Yes, I would say that if you're, if you're talking about, let's talk about something in the banking industry, where they are. I was working in a bank, and you, you go in, and this was in the days before we had all of the ways to store things electronically. And so they were having a difficult time in keeping all of their documents and in place and knowing when to, you know, put them in a destruction pile and when not to. And so I would say that they had an aha moment when I said, Okay, let's do this. Let's get a bunch of the little colored dots, and you have big dots and small dots. And I said, everything that you put away for 1990 for instance, then you put on a purple dot. And then for January, you have 12 different colors of the little dots that you put in the middle of them. And you can use those things to determine that everything that has a purple dot and little yellow.in the middle of that one, you know that that needs to be destructed. I think in that case, it was seven years, seven years from now, you know that you need to pull that one off the shelf and put it into the pile to be destructed. And they said, we've never thought of anything. It was like I had told him that, you know, the world was going to be struck, to be gone, to begin tomorrow. Yeah, it was so simple to me, but it was something that they had never, ever thought of, and it solved. They had something like five warehouses of stuff, most of which needed to have been destroyed years before, yeah,   Michael Hingson ** 49:21 but still they weren't sure what, and so you gave them a mechanism to do that,   Jan Southern ** 49:27 right? Of course, that's all gone out the window today. You don't have to do all that manual stuff anymore. You're just, you know, I'd say another example of that was people who were when we began the system of digitizing the files, especially loan files in a bank. And this would hold true today as well, in that once you start on a project to digitize the files, there's a tendency to take the old. Files first and digitize those. Well, when you do that, before you get to the end of it, if you have a large project, you don't need those files anymore. So you know, our recommendation is start with your latest. You know, anything that needs to be archived, start with the newest, because by the time that you finish your project, some of those old files you won't even need to digitize, just shred them. Yeah, you know, it's, it's just little simple things like that that can make all the difference.   Michael Hingson ** 50:32 When should a family business start documenting processes? I think I know that's what I thought you'd say,   Jan Southern ** 50:40 yes, yes, that is something that is near and dear to my heart. Is that I would even recommend that you maybe do it before you open your doors, if potential is there, so that the day you open your business, you need to start with your documenting your processes, and you need to start on your succession planning. You know, those are the days that once you really start working, you're not going to have time. You know, you're going to be busy working every day. You're you're going to be busy servicing your customers, and that always gets pushed to the back when you start to document something, and so that's the time do it when you first open your doors.   Michael Hingson ** 51:29 So when we talk about processes, maybe it's a fair question to ask, maybe not. But what are we really talking about when we talk about processes and documenting processes? What are the processes?   Jan Southern ** 51:41 Well, the processes are the things that you do every day. Let's take as an example, just when you set up your your files within your SharePoint, or within your computer, if you don't use SharePoint, your Google files, how you set those up, a process could also be during your accounting, what's the process that you go through to get a invoice approved? You know, when the invoice comes in from the vendor, what do you do with it? You know, who has to approve it? Are there dollar amounts that you have to have approvals for? Or can some people just take in a smaller invoice and pay it without any any approvals? We like to see there be a process where it's approved before you get the invoice from the customer, where it's been approved at the time of the order. And that way it can be processed more more quickly on the backside, to just make sure that it says what the purchase order if you use purchase orders or see what your agreement was. So it's the it's the workflow. There's something that triggers an action, and then, once gets triggered, then what takes place? What's next, what's the next steps? And you just go through each one of the things that has to happen for that invoice to get paid, and the check or wire transfer, or or whatever you use as a payment methodology for it to go out the door. And so, you know what you what you do is you start, there's something that triggers it, and then there's a goal for the end, and then you fill in in the center,   Michael Hingson ** 53:38 and it's, it's, it's a fascinating I hate to use the word process to to listen to all of this, but it makes perfect sense that you should be documenting right from the outset about everything that you do, because it also means that you're establishing a plan so that everyone knows exactly what the expectations are and exactly what it is that needs to be done every step of the way,   Jan Southern ** 54:07 right and and one of the primary reasons for that is we can't anticipate life. You know, maybe our favorite person, Louise, is the only one who's ever done, let's say, you know, payroll processing, or something of that sort. And if something happens and Louise isn't able to come in tomorrow, who's going to do it? You know, without a map, a road map, as to the steps that need to be taken, how's that going to take place? And so that's that's really the critical importance. And when you're writing those processes and procedures, you need to make them so that anybody can walk in off the street, if necessary, and do what Louise was doing and have it done. Properly.   Michael Hingson ** 55:00 Of course, as we know, Louise is just a big complainer anyway. That's right, you said, yeah. Well, once you've made recommendations, and let's say they're put in place, then what do you do to continue supporting a business?   Jan Southern ** 55:20 We check in with them periodically, whatever is appropriate for them and and for the procedures that are there, we make sure that it's working for them, that they're being as prosperous as they want to be, and that our recommendations are working for them. Hopefully they'll allow us to come back in and and most do, and make sure that what we recommended is right and in is working for them, and if so, we make little tweaks with their approvals. And maybe new technology has come in, maybe they've installed a new system. And so then we help them to incorporate our prior recommendations into whatever new they have. And so we try to support them on an ongoing basis, if they're willing to do that, which we have many clients. I think Rob has clients he's been with for ever, since he opened his doors 15 years ago. So   Michael Hingson ** 56:19 of course, the other side of that is, I would assume sometimes you work with companies, you've helped them deal with processes and so on, and then you come back in and you know about technology that that they don't know. And I would assume then that you suggest that, and hopefully they see the value of listening to your wisdom.   Jan Southern ** 56:41 Absolutely, we find that a lot. We also if they've discovered a technology on their own, but need help with recommendations, as far as implementation, we can help them through that as well, and that's one of the reasons I'm taking this class in AI to be able to help our customers move into a realm where it's much more easily implemented if, if they already have the steps that we've put into place, you can feed that into an AI model, and it can make adjustments to what they're doing or make suggestions.   Michael Hingson ** 57:19 Is there any kind of a rule of thumb to to answer this question, how long does it take for a project to to be completed?   Jan Southern ** 57:26 You know, it takes, in all fairness, regardless of the size of the company, I would say that they need to allow six weeks minimum. That's for a small company with a small project, it can take as long as a year or two years, depending upon the number of departments and the number of people that you have to talk to about their processes. But to let's just take an example of a one, one single department in a company is looking at doing one of these processes, then they need to allow at least six weeks to for discovery, for mapping, for their people to become accustomed to the new processes and to make sure that the implementation has been tested and is working and and they're satisfied with everything that that is taking place. Six weeks is a very, very minimum, probably 90 days is a more fair assessment as to how long they should allow for everything to take place.   Michael Hingson ** 58:39 Do you find that, if you are successful with, say, a larger company, when you go in and work with one department and you're able to demonstrate success improvements, or whatever it is that that you define as being successful, that then other departments want to use your services as well?   Jan Southern ** 59:00 Yes, yes, we do. That's a very good point. Is that once you've helped them to help themselves, if you will, once you've helped them through that process, then they recognize the value of that, and we'll move on to another division or another department to do the same thing.   Michael Hingson ** 59:21 Word of mouth counts for a lot,   Jan Southern ** 59:24 doesn't it? Though, I'd say 90% of our business at Ferguson and company comes through referrals. They refer either through a center of influence or a current client who's been very satisfied with the work that we've done for them, and they tell their friends and networking people that you know. Here's somebody that you should use if you're considering this type of a project.   Michael Hingson ** 59:48 Well, if people want to reach out to you and maybe explore using your services in Ferguson services, how do they do that?   Jan Southern ** 59:55 They contact they can. If they want to contact me directly, it's Jan. J, a n, at Ferguson dash alliance.com and that's F, E, R, G, U, S, O, N, Dash alliance.com and they can go to our website, which is the same, which is Ferguson dash alliance.com One thing that's very, very good about our our website is, there's a page that's called resources, and there's a lot of free advice, if you will. There's a lot of materials there that are available to family owned businesses, specifically, but any business could probably benefit from that. And so those are free for you to be able to access and look at, and there's a lot of blog information, free eBook out there, and so that's the best way to reach Ferguson Alliance.   Michael Hingson ** 1:00:52 Well, cool. Well, I hope people will take all of this to heart. You certainly offered a lot of interesting and I would say, very relevant ideas and thoughts about dealing with processes and the importance of having processes. For several years at a company, my wife was in charge of document control and and not only doc control, but also keeping things secure. Of course, having the sense of humor that I have, I pointed out nobody else around the company knew how to read Braille, so what they should really do is put all the documents in Braille, then they'd be protected, but nobody. I was very disappointed. Good idea   Speaker 2 ** 1:01:36 that is good idea that'll keep them safe from everybody. Yeah.   Michael Hingson ** 1:01:39 Well, I want to thank you for being here, and I want to thank to thank all of you for listening today. We've been doing this an hour. How much fun. It is fun. Well, I appreciate it, and love to hear from all of you about today's episode. Please feel free to reach out to me. You can email me at Michael H i@accessibe.com or go to our podcast page. Michael hingson, M, I, C, H, A, E, L, H, I N, G, s, O, n.com/podcast, but wherever you're listening, please give us a five star rating. We value your thoughts and your opinions, and I hope that you'll tell other people about the podcasts as well. This has been an interesting one, and we try to make them all kind of fun and interesting, so please tell others about it. And if anyone out there listening knows of anyone who ought to be a guest, Jan, including you, then please feel free to introduce us to anyone who you think ought to be a guest on unstoppable mindset. Because I believe everyone has a story to tell, and I want to get as many people to have the opportunity to tell their stories as we can. So I hope that you'll all do that and give us reviews and and stick with us. But Jan, again, I want to thank you for being here. This has been a lot of fun.   Jan Southern ** 1:02:51 It has been a lot of fun, and I certainly thank you for inviting me.   Michael Hingson ** 1:03:00 You have been listening to the Unstoppable Mindset podcast. Thanks for dropping by. I hope that you'll join us again next week, and in future weeks for upcoming episodes. To subscribe to our podcast and to learn about upcoming episodes, please visit www dot Michael hingson.com slash podcast. Michael Hingson is spelled m i c h a e l h i n g s o n. While you're on the site., please use the form there to recommend people who we ought to interview in upcoming editions of the show. And also, we ask you and urge you to invite your friends to join us in the future. If you know of any one or any organization needing a speaker for an event, please email me at speaker at Michael hingson.com. I appreciate it very much. To learn more about the concept of blinded by fear, please visit www dot Michael hingson.com forward slash blinded by fear and while you're there, feel free to pick up a copy of my free eBook entitled blinded by fear. The unstoppable mindset podcast is provided by access cast an initiative of accessiBe and is sponsored by accessiBe. Please visit www.accessibe.com . AccessiBe is spelled a c c e s s i b e. There you can learn all about how you can make your website inclusive for all persons with disabilities and how you can help make the internet fully inclusive by 2025. Thanks again for Listening. Please come back and visit us again next week.

One of the biggest challenges facing the industry is how to attract talent into highways and transport, so today on Highways Voices we discuss that very issue and hear about a solution that's there for us to use now, as we talk Skills for Life.This is a government-led campaign that promotes and provides access to funded skills and technical education opportunities for individuals and businesses, offering various programmes like apprenticeships, skills bootcamps, and free courses for jobs to help people improve their career prospects and businesses find a skilled workforce.Subscribe to Highways Voices free on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, Google Podcasts or Pocket Casts and never miss an episode!National Highways are very much behind this idea, so today we talk to its Head of Talent, Natalie Jones to find out more about it and its approach to apprenticeships and T Levels which can help you future-proof your workforce.Whether you're a public or private sector organisation, understanding how to attract and retain skilled people through real-world training could be the key to staying competitive, and sustainable, in the years ahead.In today's podcast you'll hear practical ways to address industry-wide skills shortages, from apprenticeships to T Levels and digital upskilling that's all covered by Skills for Life. You'll hear about proven methods to attract young people and career changers to roles in highways, transport, and STEM, including how early engagement and storytelling make all the difference and how we're all in this together because collaboration across the sector, from supply chains to schools, can create a stronger, more resilient workforce ready to tackle tomorrow's challenges.Highways Voices is brought to you with our partners the Transport Technology Forum, LCRIG, ADEPT and ITS UK.

Swedish metalcore powerhouse Adept rise again, ushering in a fierce new era with their long-awaited fifth studio album, Blood Covenant, out October 24, 2025, via Napalm Records. Marking a bold new era after nearly a decade of silence, Blood Covenant captures the band at their most intense, dynamic, and emotionally resonant to date across eleven tightly crafted tracks. It's so exciting to have Adept back, and not only does ‘Blood Covenant' live up to the iconic metalcore band's status, but it pushes forward, offering fresh ideas and showcasing undeniable creative spirit. Is it the best Adept album to date? That's a tough call, but it's certainly impressive that it's even in the conversation. We're not the only ones excited about Adept's return either, as vocalist Robert Ljung spoke to us and shared a ton of detail about their journey to this point. We also dug into the guts of the album's creative period, seeing fans embrace the return of Adept with gusto, bringing the new songs to the live stage, and so much more. Find out more here: https://www.adeptontour.com/ Website: https://gbhbl.com/ LinkTree: https://linktr.ee/gbhbl Ko-Fi (Buy us a coffee): https://ko-fi.com/gbhbl Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/GBHBL Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/gbhbl/ Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/gbhbl.com Threads: https://www.threads.net/@gbhbl Twitter: https://twitter.com/GBHBL_Official Contact: gbhblofficial@gmail.com Soundcloud: https://soundcloud.com/gbhbl Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5A4toGR0qap5zfoR4cIIBo Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/hr/podcast/the-gbhbl-podcasts/id1350465865 Intro/Outro music created by HexedRiffsStudios YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCKSpZ6roX36WaFWwQ73Cbbg Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/hexedriffsstudio

Alex and Paul are back to bring a whole host of updates from Adept. From the Q2 A Grade Services Award Winners, to a multitude of new contracts and much more   Alex's Linkedin - https://www.linkedin.com/in/alex-mcmahon-bb107877/ Paul's Linkedin - https://www.linkedin.com/in/paul-howard-095b1322b/ Adepts Linkedin - https://www.linkedin.com/company/adept-corporate-services Adept - https://www.adeptcorporateservices.co.uk/

This week on Highways Voices we talk to both the public and private sector about the challenges facing, and the solutions helping, our industry today.We're at the LCRIG Strictly Highways event in Blackpool to hear fresh insights into how collaboration between local authorities, government, and the supply chain is unlocking new efficiencies and innovation across the UK's road network. You'll get real-world examples of how data, digital frameworks, and sustainability partnerships are helping transform road maintenance, asset management, and carbon reduction efforts, and you'll learn actionable takeaways on how to integrate best practices and emerging technologies into everyday operations to futureproof transport infrastructure.Subscribe to Highways Voices free on Apple Podcasts,Spotify,Amazon Music,Google Podcasts or Pocket Castsand never miss an episode!Our guests are: LCRIG Managing Director Kerry Winstanley, Darren Capes from the DfT, Dave Denner from the Welsh Government, Sunil Budhdeo and Rotherham MBC's Mick Powell, plus AE Yates, and their Marketing and Social Value lead Saffron Ramsey, Gaist CTO Stephen Remde and Megan Thompson, who's Tarmac Technical Product Support Manager.We'll also look ahead to Highways UK with organiser Claudia Davidson.Listen now to discover how our industry leaders are reshaping the future of highways, and get inspired to bring these innovations back to your own organisation.Highways Voices is brought to you with our partners the Transport Technology Forum, LCRIG, ADEPT and ITS UK.

Big changes, clearer focus, and more ways to learn together. We're tightening our cadence to two episodes a month and building monthly themes that travel across the podcast, blog, and a new Substack home—so you can go beyond ideas and into practice with tools, Q&A, and live community sessions.Here's what's new and why it matters. The podcast keeps its familiar format, but now each month has a focused theme that carries into Substack deep dives. Subscribers get comprehensive guides, open Q&A weeks where we answer your specific questions in the comments, and a one-hour live chat each month to pressure-test methods on real scenarios. It's a smarter learning loop: listen, explore, apply—then come back with better questions. You'll also get access to the strategy vault filled with templates, worksheets, and facilitation guides.We're also thrilled to announce the launch of Pierce the Design Fog, a practical playbook for product, engineering, and UX teams who need structure without losing speed or humanity. With models like the concept space and ADEPT framework, you'll align cross-functional teams, turn insights into actionable design inputs, and make confident calls under uncertainty. There's a companion card deck—Concept Quest: Design Discovery—that acts like a portable facilitator, with prompts and instructions to guide workshops. Pre-order before October 14, 2025, to enter the card deck giveaway and bring these methods straight into your team's next session.Subscribe to the show, check out the Substack at qualityduringdesign.substack.com, and leave a review to help more builders find us.Are your teams struggling with poor communication and rushed timelines? Is your product vision clouded by a lack of clarity? It's time to find your way through the confusion and build products that truly resonate with users.Introducing "Pierce the Design Fog" by Dianna Deeney, the essential guide to turning abstract ideas into high-quality products. This book offers a proven playbook with practical frameworks and tools to help you foster team synergy, lead with vision, and maJOIN ME ON SUBSTACK Subscribe today. Get themed Q&As, live chats, in-depth analysis, comprehensive guides, and access to my Strategy Vaults. Founding Member spots are open now. PICK MY BRAIN Got a particular problem you'd like clarity on? Schedule a 60-minute virtual call with me - we'll work through it together. ENROLL IN MY COURSE FMEA in Practice: from Plan to Risk-Based Decision Making is enrolling now. Lifetime access, practical tools, and over 300 students already learning. GET THE BOOK Pierce the Design Fog is your playbook for concept development to engineering design inputs. VIEW MY OTHER SERVICES Visit my website to learn more. ABOUT DIANNADianna Deeney is a quality advocate for product development with over 25 years of experience in manufacturing. She is president of Deeney Enterprises, LLC, which helps organizations and people improve engineering design.

In this episode, I have a chat with Adept_Austin from the Discord as he introduces me to the heart of roleplaying and how GMs and players can introduce it to their sessions.Welcome to Mythras Matters Season 1 episode 74 - The heart of roleplaying with Adept AustinSHOW Links:Podcast on YouTubeRPG Shop - https://ko-fi.com/inwils/shop☕ Become a RPG supporter (Ko-Fi)  ➡➡ https://ko-fi.com/inwils☕ Become a RPG supporter (Patreon)  ➡➡ https://www.patreon.com/c/inwilsSupporter of Podcast: https://www.buzzsprout.com/266482/supportTDM Newsletter link: https://mailchi.mp/83c3eb6dab02/the-design-mechanism-newsTDM Blog: https://thedesignmechanism.com/blog/Tapatalk Forums: https://www.tapatalk.com/groups/designmechanism/Link to the Mythras Discord: https://discord.gg/mythras-469341944888164352If you would like to contact the podcast, then email inwils@gmail.comIntro Music: The Epic Orchestral by AnorMusic

We make another one of our trips to a leader in our industry to find out more about becoming a successful business on today's Highways Voices, and give you some ideas in your day-to-day job.We're at Westcotec in Norfolk talking talking road safety, too, discussing how the key to reducing road collisions isn't just tougher enforcement, but smarter technology that educates drivers before crashes happen.Subscribe to Highways Voices free on Apple Podcasts,Spotify,Amazon Music,Google PodcastsorPocket Castsand never miss an episode!Managing Director Chris Spinks and Sales Director Olly Samways join us to chat about their business, and the interesting way it's owned and run, and to find out how their products - designed, built, and tested in Britain - are using great solutions, from off-grid power to award-winning collision prevention.You'll hear how Westcotec's technology has demonstrably reduced serious collisions in real-world projects, why local manufacturing, employee ownership, and sustainable design matter for long-term industry resilience and their ideas for the business case for investing in safety technology that delivers measurable returns compared to the cost of road fatalities.Oh, and you'll also hear about an 1,800-mile road trip being undertaken to raise money for disadvantaged people and those with disabilities to experience the benefits of sport; keeping them active and happy while improving their health and skills for the future.Highways Voices is brought to you with our partners the Transport Technology Forum, LCRIG, ADEPT and ITS UK.

Some of the greatest stories of believers down through time have involved those who really studied God's Word. These people have gone before us to show us the way. From Charles Spurgeon to a missionary mother in China, daily study of the Word and prayer prepared them to mentor entire generations.Proverbs 27:17 says, “Iron sharpens iron, and one man sharpens another.”We also read in Romans 10 that faith comes by hearing, and hearing by the Word of God. We have to do it so that others know how. Remember, there is no substitute for spending time in God's Word.In order to properly train an apprentice, you need to obviously be prepared and adept. Anything less leads to weak faith, or no faith at all.This is what the Great Commission, sharing the Gospel, has always been about. Duplicating disciples. Grounding your own faith in the Bible, then imparting that to others. That is the essence of true iron sharpening iron.Let's pray.Lord, keep us about your work by daily reminding us to spend time with you in Your Word. In Jesus' name, amen. Change your shirt, and you can change the world! Save 15% Off your entire purchase of faith-based apparel + gifts at Kerusso.com with code KDD15.

Traffic signals remain the most effective way to manage transport networks in most urban centres, and they take centre stage this week in Leeds at the JCT Traffic Signals Symposium.Today's Highways Voices looks into the latest thinking in the industry, as we learn about SCOOT 8 AI from TRL Software, and how it, and PTV's Optima, are turning control rooms from reactive to proactive, preventing congestion before it starts.Subscribe to Highways Voices free on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, Google Podcasts or Pocket Casts and never miss an episode!We also hear from TOPAS (Traffic Open Products and Specifications) about why compliance with industry standards is more than a box-ticking exercise and how overlooking it could put safety, budgets, and reputations at risk, while Telent explain how collaboration between suppliers, engineers, and authorities is creating smarter, safer, and more sustainable transport networks without costly infrastructure overhauls.Press play now to hear about the latest innovations and debates that are changing how signals, data, and compliance drive the performance of our roads.Highways Voices is brought to you with our partners the Transport Technology Forum, LCRIG, ADEPT and ITS UK.

Republica Moldova intră în ultima săptămână de campanie electorală pentru alegerile parlamentare din 28 septembrie, care vor decide dacă Chișinăul va continua parcursul european în pofida presiunilor Rusiei. Iată titlurile ediției: - Invitatul emisiunii de astăzi este Mircea Toma, membru al Consiliului Național al Audiovizualului din România, instituție care a trimis în ultimele două săptămâni două notificări către TikTok pentru a sesiza comportamente neautentice care promovează concurenți electorali din Republica Moldova. - Cum văd campania electorală ucrainenii din satele din nordul țării. - Și o incursiune în istoria recentă – atunci când comuniștii au revenit la putere la Chișinău, în 2001, și ce a urmat – o lecție care a costat RM două decenii de stagnare și pe care jurnalistul Euronews România, Vitalie Cojocari, ne-o reamintește în contextul alegerilor de peste câteva zile. Știrile zilei: Republica Moldova intră în ultima săptămână de campanie electorală pentru alegerile parlamentare din 28 septembrie. Duminica viitoare se va decide cursul Republicii Moldova pentru următoarele decenii – își va continua aceasta parcursul european sau va fi acaparată de Kremlin prin intermediul partidelor pro-ruse. În stânga Prutului se amplifică nu atât lupta politică, cât valul de știri false, dezinformări și tentative de a cumpăra voturi și, respectiv, de partea cealaltă, încercările autorităților de a combate fenomenul. *** În această dimineață Poliția a anunțat că a discins împreună cu alte instituții de forță și Serviciului de Informații și Securitate cu peste 250 de percheziții, fiind vizate peste 100 de persoane din mai multe localitǎți. „Acțiunile sunt efectuate în cadrul unei cauze penale ce vizează pregătirea dezordinilor și destabilizărilor în masǎ, coordonate din Federația Rusă, prin intermediul elementelor criminale. Perchezițiile au loc atât la figuranții antrenați, cât și în unele penitenciare”, se spune într-un comunicat al poliției, care anunță că va reveni cu detalii dupǎ finalizarea acțiunilor. *** În context ar fi de spus că opoziția pro-rusă de la Chișinău se pare că se pregătește de proteste după alegerile de la sfârșitul săptămânii. Blocul Patriotic din care fac parte comuniștii și socialiștii au anunțat Primăria Chișinău că planifică manifestații în mai multe locații din Chișinău chiar a doua zi după alegeri, pe 29 septembrie. Tot atunci, ar urma să iasă la proteste și adepții oligarhului fugar Ilan Șor. Directorul executiv al Asociației ADEPT, Igor Boțan, spune că presupusele destabilizări ar putea fi determinate de dorința Moscovei de a deturna procesul democratic din Republica Moldova. *** Centrul Național Anticorupție (CNA) și procurorii au reținut un grup de persoane care realizau sondaje false la telefon. „S-a constatat că persoanele ar fi acționat concertat, la solicitarea unei forțe politice, în vederea manipulării opiniei publice prin diverse sondaje pentru care au primit remunerații provenite din surse ilicite”, notează comunicatul Centrului Anticorupție. Directorul comunității WatchDog de la Chișinău, Valeriu Pașa notează că sondajele false sunt de fapt o modalitate de dezinformare. „Sub pretextul întrebărilor, erau promovate niște falsuri precum că Moldova ar urma să pornească un război, sau că în Moldova urmează să fie închise bisericile, și multe alte falsuri. CNA denunță că aceste așa-zise sondaje sunt finanțate din aceleași scheme ca și partidele politice pro-ruse. Fabricile de trolli deconspirate de investigațiile Ziarului de Gardă. Scopul acestor metode murdare este influențarea opiniilor cetățenilor și îndreptarea acestora împotriva forțelor pro-europene în ajun de alegeri. Este parte din schema complexă a Rusiei de a se amesteca în alegerile parlamentare din 28 septembrie. Fiți atenți și nu credeți în sperietorile de pe internet sau așa-zisele sondaje la telefon. În spatele acestora sunt mulți bani murdari și interesele grupărilor oligarhice”, declară directorul WatchDog de la Chișinău, Valeriu Pașa. *** Comisia Electorală Centrală de la Chișinău a fost nevoită să dezmintă zvonurile privind închiderea secțiilor de votare pentru alegătorii din Transnistria. CEC precizează că această știre falsă face trimitere la un așa-zis comunicat publicat pe o pagină clonată a site-ului instituției. Comisia Electorală îndeamnă cetățenii să se informeze exclusiv din surse oficiale, să raporteze tentativele de dezinformare și să contribuie la protejarea integrității procesului electoral. *** Încă o știre falsă transmisă de mai multe canale anonime de pe Telegram, susține că România s-ar pregăti să intervină militar în Transnistria, dacă vor exista tensiuni în timpul alegerilor parlamentare de duminica viitoare. Mesajele, publicate la sfârșitul săptămânii trecute, citau ca sursă o publicație poloneză și au fost distribuite coordonat, înregistrând 190.000 de vizualizări într-o singură zi aproape 3 mii de distribuiri, transmite Mediacritica, citată de TV8. Opt canale de Telegram au distribuit 32 de postări în care se afirmă că „Bucureștiul mobilizează unități militare în cazul unor tulburări în Transnistria” sau „Artileria română ar putea interveni pentru a soluționa criza politică din Moldova”. Postările false susțin că sprijinul militar ar fi fost cerut de președinta Maia Sandu, pentru că, citez, „PAS riscă să piardă alegerile din Moldova, iar autoritățile române și ar putea încerca să influențeze rezultatul în favoarea partidului de guvernare din Republica Moldova”. Postările pretind că se bazează pe „surse proprii” și includ fotografii presupuse a fi realizate la Focșani și Brăila, locurile unde ar staționa brigăzile tactice și de geniu ale armatei române. Autorii ar fi „observat o activitate intensă înainte de plecare: camioane, blindate și obuziere care se deplasau în coloane spre granița de sud-vest, pregătindu-se, citez, să traverseze Prutul dacă Maia Sandu va da ordinul”. „Este un fals care se înscrie în narațiunile promovate de Kremlin, menite să răspândească frică și panică, a comentat Igor Zaharov, consilierul pe comunicare al șefei statului. De la începutul războiului din Ucraina, obiectivul principal al președintei Maia Sandu a fost și rămâne asigurarea păcii și a stabilității pe întreg teritoriul Republicii Moldova, a mai spus Igor Zaharov. *** Măsuri speciale la Aeroportul din Chișinău, începând din 25 septembrie. Poliția de Frontieră anunță că în perioada 25 – 30 septembrie vor fi instituite măsuri privind accesul limitat în terminalul Aeroportului Internațional Chișinău. Decizia a fost luată de Grupul de management a riscurilor. Accesul în terminal va fi permis doar pasagerilor care dețin bilet și documente de călătorie, precum și personalului autorizat și echipajelor aeronavelor. *** Și, Ucraina a introdus, prin decret prezidențial, noi sancțiuni împotriva unor persoane responsabile de încălcări ale drepturilor omului în Crimeea, dar și împotriva propagandiștilor și politicienilor pro-ruși din Moldova. Lista include 11 persoane de la Chișinău, din autonomia găgăuză și din Transnistria, inclusiv deputați sau candidați pe listele unor partide pro-ruse. Kievul precizează că aceste măsuri sunt aliniate politicilor partenerilor internaționali și au ca scop blocarea resurselor rusești, protejarea drepturilor omului în teritoriile ocupate și contracararea propagandei Moscovei.

Today on Highways Voices we feature what we believe to be Lilian Greenwood's last interview as Future of Roads Minister before she moved to the whip's office in the recent government reshuffle.Despite her moving on, it was such a good conversation that we should still share it with you, to give you an idea of current government thinking.Subscribe to Highways Voices free on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, Google Podcasts or Pocket Casts and never miss an episode!In her chat with Adrian Tatum, you'll hear them discuss what happens when decades-old motorways, mounting congestion, and unpredictable weather collide with today's demand for smoother, safer, and more resilient highways. We dive into the government's latest road investment strategy, RIS3, revealing how forthcoming funding, maintenance priorities, and policy changes will directly shape the future of highways, connectivity, and local economies.You'll hear how the government plans to rebalance priorities between new road schemes and maintaining existing assets to deliver long-term value, discover what proactive asset management and updated codes of practice mean for local authorities and contractors in real terms, and where strategic investments will unlock growth, reduce congestion, and strengthen resilience in the face of climate and economic pressures.Press play now for real insight into how the RIS3 decision will impact your network, your projects, and your travelling public.Highways Voices is brought to you with our partners the Transport Technology Forum, LCRIG, ADEPT and ITS UK.

Esoteric Crossroads: Scholars Meet Practitioners is a new collaborative video series, launched in 2025, co-produced by Rejected Religion and RENSEP. Hosted by Stephanie Shea, each session brings together scholars and practitioners for thoughtful dialogue on esoteric traditions. This video is an edited version of the live session that took place in June 2025. If you are interested to learn more and join the upcoming discussions, please visit www.rensep.org or my Patreon page: www.patreon.com/RejectedReligion. Isis Mrugalla Kalmbacher is a scholar of religion. She studied in Heidelberg, Seville, Basel, and Lucerne, focusing on migration studies, international relations, and cultural anthropology. She is currently completing her PhD at the University of Tübingen, where she explores Chaos Magic as her main research topic. In her dissertation, she proposes a new approach to the Study of Religions that centres on group and organisational practices. To support this, she has developed two key theoretical tools: reality techniques and infrastructures.. Nils or Frater Fuchs lächelt viel 12.3 (“Frater Fuchs smiles a lot 12.3”), called “Fuchs” is an Adept and Priest of Chaos in the German section of the Illuminates of Thanateros - I.O.T. In the IOT, his main responsibilities are organising seminars for interested people twice a year, answering applications that people send to the section to become a novice, and supervising the novice trainings. At the moment, he is writing a book, which, among other things, deals with the question of what Chaos Magic actually is. A few questions that were explored: -What is Chaos Magick, and what is the history of CM? -How are sigils created and used in magickal practice? -The uses of CM - what are magicians actually using it for?-How is the CM community organized (or not organized)? The views and opinions expressed in this video are those of the individual speakers and do not necessarily reflect those of the host, Stephanie Shea, or the affiliated platforms. All content is presented for educational and discussion purposes in a spirit of respectful exchange. Music and Video Production: Stephanie Shea This video series is presented by Research Network for the Study of Esoteric Practices - www.rensep.org and Rejected Religion.

Having discovered a strange crate labeled "What Might Have Been", Frank and Tormsen go through a few of the alternate universe versions of adept schools that have wound up on unnaturalphenomena dot com. Photomancy: https://www.unnaturalphenomena.com/wp/?p=3460 Tropamancy: https://www.unnaturalphenomena.com/wp/?p=3413 Cinemancy: https://www.unnaturalphenomena.com/wp/?p=3678 Sociomancy: https://www.unnaturalphenomena.com/wp/?p=3812 Ballistomancies: https://www.unnaturalphenomena.com/wp/?p=3505 https://www.unnaturalphenomena.com/wp/?p=2226 Sartorimancy: https://www.unnaturalphenomena.com/wp/?p=3008 Detritomancy: https://www.unnaturalphenomena.com/wp/?p=3597 Automancy: https://www.unnaturalphenomena.com/wp/?p=2071 Odomancy: https://www.unnaturalphenomena.com/wp/?p=2011

How much longer can our industry afford to keep filling potholes instead of preventing them in the first place?In our latest Highways Voices we discuss the situation that is drivers the most - the poor condition of our roads.Subscribe to Highways Voices free on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, Google Podcasts or Pocket Casts and never miss an episode!During Pothole Prevention Week we hear that more than half of councils still carry out no preventive road maintenance at all, and look into why reactive approaches are costing millions more, damaging trust, and keeping the cycle of potholes alive, despite there being proven, cost-effective solutions are within reach.The RAC and the Road Surface Treatments Association have written to the Government calling for the introduction of mandatory training for councils who carry out little or no maintenance to prevent potholes forming, and guests Mike Hansford, Chief Executive of the RSTA and Simon Williams, PR and External Affairs lead at the RAC, discuss the need to factor in your maintenance from the very beginning, and to make it part of the overall project cost.They also explain how preventive maintenance saves up to five times the cost of resurfacing, describe pothole repair like Groundhog Day, and that practical strategies and case studies show early interventions extend road life, improve safety, and deliver visible results for drivers.You can sign up to the webinar they talk about here.Highways Voices is brought to you with our partners the Transport Technology Forum, LCRIG, ADEPT and ITS UK.

Session 6: Be Kind Part 4 - Weekend at Martinis The Adept Mystics are gonna do it, they're gonna pull a “Weekend at Bernie's”! They're also planning to cash out a portion of the CEO's profits in the process. They just need to make it to the bank, what could possibly go wrong! Cast: Chris - GM Dave - Trevor “Huey” Riggs (Troll Physical Adept and Ex-Beat Cop) Aaron - Alatar “Jonathan Strange” Pollando (Elf Former Wage Mage)   Musical Credits:  Epic Unease by Kevin MacLeod Link: https://incompetech.filmmusic.io/song/3714-epic-unease  License: https://filmmusic.io/standard-license    There It Is by Kevin MacLeod Link: https://incompetech.filmmusic.io/song/4519-there-it-is  License: https://filmmusic.io/standard-license    "Bet You Can ver 2" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/    "The Way Out" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Jonathan O'Connor, Fintech South 2025 Chair; Division President, Third-Party Payments, Synovus. Jonathan is a results-oriented Executive, with 25+ years of experience leading sales teams, driving revenue, and identifying operational improvement strategies. Expert knowledge of global payment solutions, e-commerce, risk mitigation, digital currencies, merchant processing, mergers and acquisitions. Adept at effective communication with internal executive leaders and external […] The post Fintech South 2025: Jonathan O’Connor with Synovus appeared first on Business RadioX ®.

James chats with his good friend Mia about her education journey and coaching. Mia is an educated and results-driven young professional with six years of experience in hospitality and consulting. Adept at client relationship management, networking, and event management with a proven track record of increasing revenue and executing the general management of sales and operations. Strong communication and problem-solving abilities, combined with my enthusiasm for maximizing efficiency and being a vital part of team success has consistently propelled me to deliver exceptional results. Honors, Awards, and Recognitions: - Dale Carnegie's Highest Achievement Award (2023) - First ever recipient of Southern Arkansas University's Greek Student Leader of the Year (2016-2017) - Mulerider Leadership Awards (2016-2017) - Vice President's Student Leader of the Year Award (2015-2016) - Mulerider Leadership Awards (2015-2016) - Who's Who Among Students in American Universities & Colleges (2015-2016) - Southern Arkansas University's “100 Years of Homecoming” Queen (2015)Follow here https://www.linkedin.com/in/mia-hyman-selfaklaimed-llc/

Today on Highways Voices we'll look at how AI-driven maps, integrated traffic data, and smarter signal systems could cut congestion, boost safety, and transform how highways are managed, thanks to insights from HERE, Flow Labs and TomTom.This episode takes you inside the Intelligent Transport Systems World Congress 2025 in Atlanta, where global experts reveal how new data partnerships, real-time integration, and AI are reshaping traffic management and mobility ecosystems that matter directly to your network's performance.Subscribe to Highways Voices free on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, Google Podcasts or Pocket Casts and never miss an episode!You'll get insight into how AI and collaborative mapping initiatives are improving incident detection, fleet operations, and long-term planning, real-world examples of integrated data platforms that give agencies visibility across entire networks to optimise signals and improve safety and a clear view of how UK and global expertise is driving the next wave of resilient, future-ready transport solutions.We'll also hear from British Consul General to Atlanta Rachel Galloway, talking about the UK's hosting of this major event in two years' time, as the excitement builds towards Birmingham 2027.Along with Rachel Galloway, the guests are Jeff Rowen, Vice President Global Product Partnerships at HERE Technologies; CEO & Founder at Flow Labs, Jatish Patel; and Douglas Gilmour, TomTom's Global Traffic BD lead.The podcasts are presented from the UK & ERTICO – ITS Europe Pavilion at the World Congress, supported by Transport for West Midlands, AGD Systems, MAV Systems, Immense, Intelligent Instruments, Navtech Radar, Nicander and Zenzic.Highways Voices is brought to you with our partners the Transport Technology Forum, LCRIG, ADEPT and ITS UK.

1.   Adapt and Be Adept: Market Responses to Climate Change edited by Terry Anderson, champions market-based adaptation to climate change over top-down, incentivized approaches such as carbon taxes or "climate clubs". The book uses Pascal's Wager to frame its argument: regardless of whether climate change is definitively proven, it is prudent to adapt. A central critique in the book is directed at the economic impracticality of relying solely on renewable energy. Mark Mills' chapter highlights that historically, the dominance of wood and the search for food kept societies from specializing, a limitation overcome by fossil fuels. Current statistics show renewables account for only 2% of global and 3% of US electricity generation. The cost comparison is stark: $1 million worth of shale gas produces 300 million kilowatts of power, while the same value in renewables yields only 50 kilowatts. Furthermore, storing renewable energy with batteries is prohibitively expensive (costing $200 per equivalent unit compared to $1 for hydrocarbons) and limited by the availability and environmental impact of mining critical resources like lithium. The book dismisses goals like the Biden administration's aim for 100% renewable electricity by 2035 as being in "total denial" of these physical and economic limits. The book also critiques government-led "incentivized" policies, like carbon taxes or emissions trading systems, as susceptible to political distortion and protectionist agendas. These policies, derived from "blackboard economics," fail to account for the political reality where powerful interests at the negotiating table ensure they are not "on the menu" for taxation. The failure of Europe's emissions trading system, which was diluted by granting credits to new energy producers, serves as an example of such distortion destroying market incentives. Instead, the book advocates for improving "price discovery" through financial and risk markets as the most effective means of adaptation. These markets, like property and insurance, naturally adjust prices to reflect changing risks, such as declining property values in areas prone to storm surges. However, government subsidies for programs like flood or crop insurance distort these signals, leading to maladaptive behavior. The crucial role of government, according to the authors, is not to dictate energy policy or impose taxes, but to provide accurate, transparent, and timely data on climate variables like rainfall and temperature, enabling markets to make informed decisions. The experiences of Alaskan Native Villages (ANV) illustrate the importance of local control and human ingenuity in adaptation, which external regulations have often hindered. The book emphasizes the need for pragmatism in addressing climate change, echoing Bjorn Lomborg's argument for sensible investments in areas like public health (e.g., malaria control) that yield greater returns than attempts to halt climate change altogether. Ultimately, Adapt and Be Adept posits that empowering individuals and communities with accurate information and minimal market distortion will unleash the human capacity to adapt and prosper in a changing climate. 1873 VULTURE BISON

2.  Adapt and Be Adept: Market Responses to Climate Change edited by Terry Anderson, champions market-based adaptation to climate change over top-down, incentivized approaches such as carbon taxes or "climate clubs". The book uses Pascal's Wager to frame its argument: regardless of whether climate change is definitively proven, it is prudent to adapt. A central critique in the book is directed at the economic impracticality of relying solely on renewable energy. Mark Mills' chapter highlights that historically, the dominance of wood and the search for food kept societies from specializing, a limitation overcome by fossil fuels. Current statistics show renewables account for only 2% of global and 3% of US electricity generation. The cost comparison is stark: $1 million worth of shale gas produces 300 million kilowatts of power, while the same value in renewables yields only 50 kilowatts. Furthermore, storing renewable energy with batteries is prohibitively expensive (costing $200 per equivalent unit compared to $1 for hydrocarbons) and limited by the availability and environmental impact of mining critical resources like lithium. The book dismisses goals like the Biden administration's aim for 100% renewable electricity by 2035 as being in "total denial" of these physical and economic limits. The book also critiques government-led "incentivized" policies, like carbon taxes or emissions trading systems, as susceptible to political distortion and protectionist agendas. These policies, derived from "blackboard economics," fail to account for the political reality where powerful interests at the negotiating table ensure they are not "on the menu" for taxation. The failure of Europe's emissions trading system, which was diluted by granting credits to new energy producers, serves as an example of such distortion destroying market incentives. Instead, the book advocates for improving "price discovery" through financial and risk markets as the most effective means of adaptation. These markets, like property and insurance, naturally adjust prices to reflect changing risks, such as declining property values in areas prone to storm surges. However, government subsidies for programs like flood or crop insurance distort these signals, leading to maladaptive behavior. The crucial role of government, according to the authors, is not to dictate energy policy or impose taxes, but to provide accurate, transparent, and timely data on climate variables like rainfall and temperature, enabling markets to make informed decisions. The experiences of Alaskan Native Villages (ANV) illustrate the importance of local control and human ingenuity in adaptation, which external regulations have often hindered. The book emphasizes the need for pragmatism in addressing climate change, echoing Bjorn Lomborg's argument for sensible investments in areas like public health (e.g., malaria control) that yield greater returns than attempts to halt climate change altogether. Ultimately, Adapt and Be Adept posits that empowering individuals and communities with accurate information and minimal market distortion will unleash the human capacity to adapt and prosper in a changing climate. 1873 TASMMAAN

3  Adapt and Be Adept: Market Responses to Climate Change edited by Terry Anderson, champions market-based adaptation to climate change over top-down, incentivized approaches such as carbon taxes or "climate clubs". The book uses Pascal's Wager to frame its argument: regardless of whether climate change is definitively proven, it is prudent to adapt. A central critique in the book is directed at the economic impracticality of relying solely on renewable energy. Mark Mills' chapter highlights that historically, the dominance of wood and the search for food kept societies from specializing, a limitation overcome by fossil fuels. Current statistics show renewables account for only 2% of global and 3% of US electricity generation. The cost comparison is stark: $1 million worth of shale gas produces 300 million kilowatts of power, while the same value in renewables yields only 50 kilowatts. Furthermore, storing renewable energy with batteries is prohibitively expensive (costing $200 per equivalent unit compared to $1 for hydrocarbons) and limited by the availability and environmental impact of mining critical resources like lithium. The book dismisses goals like the Biden administration's aim for 100% renewable electricity by 2035 as being in "total denial" of these physical and economic limits. The book also critiques government-led "incentivized" policies, like carbon taxes or emissions trading systems, as susceptible to political distortion and protectionist agendas. These policies, derived from "blackboard economics," fail to account for the political reality where powerful interests at the negotiating table ensure they are not "on the menu" for taxation. The failure of Europe's emissions trading system, which was diluted by granting credits to new energy producers, serves as an example of such distortion destroying market incentives. Instead, the book advocates for improving "price discovery" through financial and risk markets as the most effective means of adaptation. These markets, like property and insurance, naturally adjust prices to reflect changing risks, such as declining property values in areas prone to storm surges. However, government subsidies for programs like flood or crop insurance distort these signals, leading to maladaptive behavior. The crucial role of government, according to the authors, is not to dictate energy policy or impose taxes, but to provide accurate, transparent, and timely data on climate variables like rainfall and temperature, enabling markets to make informed decisions. The experiences of Alaskan Native Villages (ANV) illustrate the importance of local control and human ingenuity in adaptation, which external regulations have often hindered. The book emphasizes the need for pragmatism in addressing climate change, echoing Bjorn Lomborg's argument for sensible investments in areas like public health (e.g., malaria control) that yield greater returns than attempts to halt climate change altogether. Ultimately, Adapt and Be Adept posits that empowering individuals and communities with accurate information and minimal market distortion will unleash the human capacity to adapt and prosper in a changing climate. 1848 EXTINCTION DODO BIRD

4.  Adapt and Be Adept: Market Responses to Climate Change edited by Terry Anderson, champions market-based adaptation to climate change over top-down, incentivized approaches such as carbon taxes or "climate clubs". The book uses Pascal's Wager to frame its argument: regardless of whether climate change is definitively proven, it is prudent to adapt. A central critique in the book is directed at the economic impracticality of relying solely on renewable energy. Mark Mills' chapter highlights that historically, the dominance of wood and the search for food kept societies from specializing, a limitation overcome by fossil fuels. Current statistics show renewables account for only 2% of global and 3% of US electricity generation. The cost comparison is stark: $1 million worth of shale gas produces 300 million kilowatts of power, while the same value in renewables yields only 50 kilowatts. Furthermore, storing renewable energy with batteries is prohibitively expensive (costing $200 per equivalent unit compared to $1 for hydrocarbons) and limited by the availability and environmental impact of mining critical resources like lithium. The book dismisses goals like the Biden administration's aim for 100% renewable electricity by 2035 as being in "total denial" of these physical and economic limits. The book also critiques government-led "incentivized" policies, like carbon taxes or emissions trading systems, as susceptible to political distortion and protectionist agendas. These policies, derived from "blackboard economics," fail to account for the political reality where powerful interests at the negotiating table ensure they are not "on the menu" for taxation. The failure of Europe's emissions trading system, which was diluted by granting credits to new energy producers, serves as an example of such distortion destroying market incentives. Instead, the book advocates for improving "price discovery" through financial and risk markets as the most effective means of adaptation. These markets, like property and insurance, naturally adjust prices to reflect changing risks, such as declining property values in areas prone to storm surges. However, government subsidies for programs like flood or crop insurance distort these signals, leading to maladaptive behavior. The crucial role of government, according to the authors, is not to dictate energy policy or impose taxes, but to provide accurate, transparent, and timely data on climate variables like rainfall and temperature, enabling markets to make informed decisions. The experiences of Alaskan Native Villages (ANV) illustrate the importance of local control and human ingenuity in adaptation, which external regulations have often hindered. The book emphasizes the need for pragmatism in addressing climate change, echoing Bjorn Lomborg's argument for sensible investments in areas like public health (e.g., malaria control) that yield greater returns than attempts to halt climate change altogether. Ultimately, Adapt and Be Adept posits that empowering individuals and communities with accurate information and minimal market distortion will unleash the human capacity to adapt and prosper in a changing climate. 1873 ABORIGINES

What if a single innovation could prevent visually impaired passengers from being left behind at bus stops, or if autonomous shuttles could fill the critical gaps in our transport networks?In this episode of Highways Voices from the 2025 Intelligent Transport Systems World Congress, Paul Hutton speaks with pioneers reshaping the future of inclusive and intelligent mobility, from an app designed to make public transport accessible to everyone, to the rollout of autonomous shuttles that connect communities left out by traditional transit. The discussions highlight both the opportunities and the challenges in delivering equitable, safe, and sustainable mobility.Subscribe to Highways Voices free on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, Google Podcasts or Pocket Casts and never miss an episode!In today's show, you'll also hear insider perspectives from ITS Hall of Fame inductees on building successful autonomous shuttle businesses across Europe and beyond and critical insights into cybersecurity gaps in public transport systems and how agencies can safeguard infrastructure against inevitable attacks.There's also an update in the planning for the next Europe-based World Congress, when the major event comes to Birmingham's NEC in October 2027.Press play now to hear how today's innovations in inclusive mobility, autonomous vehicles, and cybersecurity are setting the course for the highways and transport systems of tomorrow.The podcasts are presented from the UK & ERTICO - ITS Europe Pavilion at the World Congress, supported by Transport for West Midlands, AGD Systems, MAV Systems, Immense, Nicander, Intelligent Instruments, Navtech Radar and Zenzic.Highways Voices is brought to you with our partners the Transport Technology Forum, LCRIG, ADEPT and ITS UK.

What happens when innovative British ITS companies bring their latest breakthroughs to the global stage in Atlanta, revealing how traffic management, enforcement, simulation, and even noise control are being redefined for the next decade?You'll find out on today's Highways Voices from the ITS World Congress, where we have our popular "pitwalk" podcast, chatting to companies exhibiting on the UK Pavilion.Subscribe to Highways Voices free on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, Google Podcasts or Pocket Casts and never miss an episode!Our guests are from AGD Systems, MAV Systems, Immense, Nicander, Intelligent Instruments, Transport for West Midlands (for Birmingham 2027), Navtech Radar and Zenzic.Hear discussion about how leaders face the same urgent challenges: maintaining safety and reliability under budget constraints, adapting to changing regulations, and preparing for the future of connected, automated, and sustainable mobility. This episode discusses showcasing real-world solutions designed to address exactly those pressures, and seize the opportunities ahead.We discuss above-ground detection and AI-powered enforcement cameras to predictive simulation tools and centralized bus-priority systems, get insights into how global cities are adapting UK-developed ITS solutions to tackle congestion, emissions, and safety, and hear more about when the World Congress comes to Birmingham in 2027, and why it promises to be a significant knowledge-sharing and commercial opportunity.Press play now to walk the exhibition floor with us and hear directly from the leaders shaping the next era of intelligent transport.Highways Voices is brought to you with our partners the Transport Technology Forum, LCRIG, ADEPT and ITS UK.

Today on Highways Voices we're in the USA for the ITS World Congress in Atlanta talking emerging technologies in transport technology, a new faster modelling solution and what it's like to be a CEO of a multinational company.Our guests are from Clearview Intelligence and WSP, and we bring you two CEOs - Christian U Haas from Umovity (pictured on his stand) and SWARCO's Michael Schuch.Subscribe to Highways Voices free on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, Google Podcasts or Pocket Casts and never miss an episode!You'll find out what we're learning from pilot projects and deployments that can be scaled nationwide, and practical insights for aligning innovation with policy, funding, and public expectations.Plus you'll hear all about the planning for when this major event comes to the UK, with Transport for West Midlands banging the drum for Birmingham all week.Tune in now to hear proven strategies and fresh perspectives from the forefront of intelligent transport—your roadmap to staying ahead in the future of highways.Highways Voices is brought to you with our partners the Transport Technology Forum, LCRIG, ADEPT and ITS UK.

This is Alex Heath, your Thursday episode guest host and deputy editor at The Verge. One of the biggest topics in AI these days is agents — the idea that AI is going to move from chatbots to reliably completing tasks for us in the real world. But the problem with agents is that they really aren't all that reliable right now. There's a lot of work happening in the AI industry to try and fix that, and that brings me to my guest today: David Luan, the head of Amazon's AGI research lab, a cofounder of Adept, and a former VP of engineering at OpenAI. David and I discussed the release of GPT-5, what Amazon wants with agents, and where he thinks the AI race is headed next. Read the full transcript on The Verge. Links:  The Platonic Representation Hypothesis | Phillip Isola Amazon plays catch-up with new Nova models to generate voices, video | Verge Amazon's new AI agent is designed to do your shopping | Verge Microsoft is racing to build an AI ‘agent factory' | Verge OpenAI's new ChatGPT Agent can control an entire computer | Verge 24 hours with Alexa Plus: we cooked, we chatted, and it kinda lied to me | Verge Why AI researchers are getting paid like NBA All-Stars | Decoder OpenAI's Windsurf deal is off — and Windsurf's CEO is going to Google | Verge This is Big Tech's playbook for swallowing the AI industry | Command Line Amazon hires founders away from AI startup Adept | TechCrunch Credits: Decoder is a production of The Verge and part of the Vox Media Podcast Network. Our producers are Kate Cox and Nick Statt. Our editor is Ursa Wright.  The Decoder music is by Breakmaster Cylinder. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Session 5: Be Kind Part 3 -  Greasy Mustache The Adept Mystics get a new job, one that was born of their own actions. Turns out, when a “Free Spirit” destroys a construction site, the corp that runs that site wants some pay back. Can the crew continue to have their cake and eat it too? All the while digging themselves out of a sticky situation? Find out! Cast: Chris - GM Dave - Trevor “Huey” Riggs (Troll Physical Adept and Ex-Beat Cop) Aaron - Alatar “Jonathan Strange” Pollando (Elf Former Wage Mage)   Musical Credits:  Epic Unease by Kevin MacLeod Link: https://incompetech.filmmusic.io/song/3714-epic-unease  License: https://filmmusic.io/standard-license    There It Is by Kevin MacLeod Link: https://incompetech.filmmusic.io/song/4519-there-it-is  License: https://filmmusic.io/standard-license    "Bet You Can ver 2" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/    "The Way Out" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Session 4: Be Kind Part 2 - Toasted Wieners The Adept Mystics have to try and get their cake and eat it too. Semi-altruistic as ever, but committed to staying loyal to a contract, they must figure out how to spare a fledgling media rental business in the Brampton Barrens BUT not really… but make it SEEM like they did… maybe? What troubles will they face in this gang riddled suburban wasteland? Cast: Chris - GM Dave - Trevor “Huey” Riggs (Troll Physical Adept and Ex-Beat Cop) Aaron - Alatar “Jonathan Strange” Pollando (Elf Former Wage Mage)   Musical Credits:  Epic Unease by Kevin MacLeod Link: https://incompetech.filmmusic.io/song/3714-epic-unease  License: https://filmmusic.io/standard-license    There It Is by Kevin MacLeod Link: https://incompetech.filmmusic.io/song/4519-there-it-is  License: https://filmmusic.io/standard-license    "Bet You Can ver 2" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/    "The Way Out" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com) Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

What's really holding back innovation in our sector, and how do we finally break through?We find out together on today's Highways Voices as we hear about a brand new report from the Local Council Roads Innovation Group, called Inspiring Change Across The Highways Sector.Subscribe to Highways Voices free on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, Google Podcasts or Pocket Casts and never miss an episode!LCRIG CEO Paula Claytonsmith is our guest to tell us about the in-depth study and how it's found that, despite growing enthusiasm for innovation, decision makers across highways and transport consistently face the same barriers: complex procurement, risk-averse cultures, and siloed learning.She talks about how most local authorities self-identify as innovators, but still feel stuck when it comes to real change. We hear that collaboration is being shaped by local authorities and some of the practical tools and support are being rolled out to drive shared innovation, knowledge hubs, and lasting sector improvement through 2026 and beyond.The full report is available here.Highways Voices is brought to you with our partners the Transport Technology Forum, LCRIG, ADEPT and ITS UK.

We're joined by the fantastic A.M. Adair to discuss her novella Origin Story, translating fiction into different mediums, and diving headfirst into a character's frame of mind. We also get a sneak peek of Origin Story, representation of women in fiction, and the therapeutic benefits of creative outlets. A.M. Adair retired from active duty as a Chief Warrant Officer of the United States Navy, having spent over 21 years in the Intelligence Community, specializing in counterintelligence and human intelligence. She has been to numerous countries, including multiple tours in Iraq and Afghanistan. Her experiences have been unique and provided her imagination with a wealth of material to draw from to give her stories life. A lifelong fan of the genre, she is an International Thriller Writers associate member. Shadow Game was her debut novel and the first book in the Elle Anderson series. Her second novel, The Deeper Shadow, was a Distinguished Favorite in the 2021 NYC Big Book Awards thriller category. In 2023, her third novel, Shadow War, won in the Action/Adventure category of the Independent Press Awards and was a finalist for the 2023 Killer Nashville Silver Falchion Award. Her fourth novel, A New Game, won an Independent Press Award and NYC Big Book Award in 2024 for Action/Adventure, and it was a 2024 Killer Nashville Silver Falchion finalist. Her first novella, Origin Story, released at the end of 2024, became an Amazon bestseller. She lives in Tennessee with her husband Jake, daughter Arya, and son Finn.Dark Waters vol. 1 & 2 are available to order! To get acopy, head over to our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠linktree⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Want to submit your writing? Emaildarkwaterspodcast@gmail.comIntro/Outro music: www.bensound.comDisclaimer: Any and all opinions expressed are the opinionsof the participants and not of the organizations or institutions with which they are affiliated.

Trenayce will open with the “The Internal Light Meditation” and then continue our deep discussion on the Sacred Egyptian Tarot, by examining Card #21, of the Major Arcana. This is “The Adept” also known as “The World” Card in the modern day Tarot. Find out what power and significance is held within this Archetype and how this information can help you Navigate Your Awakening!  #Transformation  #TheAwakening  #SacredTarot  #SelfEmpowerment

Episode 254 of the EYE ON SCI-FI podcast introduces 'The Adept,' an indie sci-fi fantasy short film by Canadian visual effects artist and composer Adam Stern, also known for the hit short film 'FTL.' The film explores the story of a married scientist couple, Ben and Maddie, who uncover a powerful force that blends science and magic. #scifishort #scifi #fantasySubscribe to the podcast via RSS, Apple Podcasts, Pocket Casts or Amazon Music.To subscribe to the newsletter, explore the podcast archive, support the podcast, and more, visit EYE ON SCI-FI Link Tree.Episode Link:Watch sci-fi/fantasy short: THE ADEPTInterview with ‘The Adept' creator, VFX professional and composer, Adam Stern

We're going back to the 80s to spotlight a low budget horror from The Empire days of legendary producer Charles Band.  We hope you enjoy as we give the horror 101 treatment to Luca Bercovici's Ghoulies.  Show Highlights:01:00 Prelude to Terror...05:15  Before Full Moon....07:55  You have a Big Hit on your hands...09:35  PG-13!?14:00  Ritual Infanticide...17:05  Inheritance...19:10  First Party...23:20  Becoming an Adept...26:00  Weird Sexy Time...27:55  Summoned Dwarves...31:55  Resurrection Ritual...34:23  Malcolm's Ghoulie Massacre...43:50  Black Magic Showdown...47:45  The Ending...51:00  Scoring the film...59:00  Conclusion!  Thanks for lIstening!

Recorded during the early hours of Sunday morning at Garage Noord at the Omen Wapta Weekender, this live set from Formant Value captures the essence of a weekend that transcended the club experience—where sound, space, and shared energy merged into something truly transformative. Opening in slow motion, the set unfolds with a deep, psychedelic ambient current—echoes, pulses, and dub textures forming a wide sonic horizon. What follows is a steady, organic rise into tribal techno rhythms and hi-tech structures, maintaining a sense of spaciousness even at its most kinetic. It's a set that mirrors the architecture of the night itself: meditative, then elevating, then dissolving again. There are no sharp corners—just flow. Time felt suspended. Movement turned internal. And in the foggy warmth of the dancefloor, listeners were gently guided through a collective dreamspace. Formant Value is known for his unique & sophisticated sound, that defies easy categorisation whilst nodding in the direction of downtempo, dub and IDM, with elements of D'n'B, trance and techno. His music has been released by a number of labels including Lowless Records, Well Street Records, Rgd tribe and Annulled Music. Adept at sustaining the fine tension between dancefloor energy and audiophile precision of intent home listening, Formant Value brings a uniquely fresh take on contemporary club music. Follow: https://soundcloud.com/formant-value https://www.instagram.com/formantvalue/ https://linktr.ee/formantvalue

This week Sam and Marcos welcome back deathcore titans Lorna Shore, discuss the separation of I Prevail and Brian Burkheiser, who or what is President(?), Pierce The Veil's insane setlist for new tour, Anthony Fantano murders Sleep Token, Adept return, reviews of new albums from Bury Tomorrow, The Callous Daoboys, Arm's Length, and Sleep Theory plus much more! News: I Prevail and Brian Burkheiser break-up, Sleep Token keeps topping the charts, Trivium and Bullet For My Valentine tour comes to a strange end, Pierce The Veil's insane setlist and more (7:19). Spotlight: Outsider Heart starting at (44:50).  New Music: Lorna Shore, President, Adept, The Rasmus, De'Wayne, and Beauty School Dropout starting at (52:31). Reviews: Bury Tomorrow (1:25:56), Arm's Length (1:36:04), The Callous Daoboys (1:54:13), and Sleep Theory.  Become a Patron to gain early access and exclusive benefits! Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/Sotspodcast Playlist: https://open.spotify.com/playlist/0jp0fpudUz7gvu0SFaXhK3?si=6cddbd5b63564c9a Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@sotspod Discord: https://discord.com/invite/3egU3Dk Merch: https://www.sotspodcast.com/merch Twitter: https://twitter.com/SOTSPodcast Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/sotspodcast Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/sotspodcast TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@sotspodcast  Threads: https://www.threads.net/@sotspodcast?hl=en Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/sotspodcast.bsky.social

podcast #warhammer #warhammer40k #warhammercommunity #gamesworkshop https://warhammertv.com/player/25504/stream?assetType=episodes&playlist_id=5 New episodes LIVE every Tuesday at 10PM EST / 7PM PST! Also available as a podcast wherever you get yours. www.grimafterdark.com for links to all our stuff! Hosted by: Jon Quennell, Danny McDevitt and Val Heffelfinger Produced by: Tech Priest Dickie Executive Producer: Nick Horton

Die Abwesenheit von Unglück und Katastrophen bedeutet nicht automatisch Glück und Zufriedenheit. Das kommt langsam auch in der Psychotherapie an, die sich in der Vergangenheit vor allem mit Krankheitsbildern beschäftigt und daher eher das Ziel hat, das Unglück und die Katastrophen zu beseitigen. Aber wäre es nicht schön, wenn wir wieder glücklich sein könnten? Leon und Atze beschäftigen sich dieses Mal mit Therapieansätzen, die positive Gefühle im Fokus haben und was wir für unseren Alltag daraus mitnehmen können. Fühlt euch gut betreut Leon & Atze Start ins heutige Thema: 12:07 min. VVK Münster 2025: https://betreutes-fuehlen.ticket.io/ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/leonwindscheid/ https://www.instagram.com/atzeschroeder_offiziell/ Der Instagram Account für Betreutes Fühlen: https://www.instagram.com/betreutesfuehlen/ Mehr zu unseren Werbepartnern findet ihr hier: https://linktr.ee/betreutesfuehlen Tickets: Atze: https://www.atzeschroeder.de/#termine Leon: https://leonwindscheid.de/tour/ Quellen: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/new-psychotherapies-that-focus-on-positive-experiences-could-better-treat/ Studie zu PAT: Craske, M. G., Meuret, A. E., Echiverri-Cohen, A., Rosenfield, D., & Ritz, T. (2023). Positive affect treatment targets reward sensitivity: A randomized controlled trial. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10213148/ Studie zu ADepT: Dunn, B. D., Widnall, E., Warbrick, L., Warner, F., Reed, N., Price, A., ... & Kuyken, W. (2023). Preliminary clinical and cost effectiveness of augmented depression therapy versus cognitive behavioural therapy for the treatment of anhedonic depression (ADepT): a single-centre, open-label, parallel-group, pilot, randomised, controlled trial. EClinicalMedicine,. https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/eclinm/PIIS2589-5370(23)00261-4.pdf Studie zu SkillJoy: LaFreniere, L. S., & Newman, M. G. (2023). Reducing contrast avoidance in GAD by savoring positive emotions: Outcome and mediation in a randomized controlled trial. Journal of Anxiety Disorders. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9976801/ Redaktion: Andy Hartard Produktion: Murmel Productions

David is an OG in AI who has been at the forefront of many of the major breakthroughs of the past decade. His resume: VP of Engineering at OpenAI, a key contributor to Google Brain, co-founder of Adept, and now leading Amazon's SF AGI Lab. In this episode we focused on how far test-time compute gets us, the real implications of DeepSeek, what agents milestones he's looking for and more.[0:00] Intro[1:14] DeepSeek Reactions and Market Implications[2:44] AI Models and Efficiency[4:11] Challenges in Building AGI[7:58] Research Problems in AI Development[11:17] The Future of AI Agents[15:12] Engineering Challenges and Innovations[19:45] The Path to Reliable AI Agents[21:48] Defining AGI and Its Impact[22:47] Challenges and Gating Factors[24:05] Future Human-Computer Interaction[25:00] Specialized Models and Policy[25:58] Technical Challenges and Model Evaluation[28:36] Amazon's Role in AGI Development[30:33] Data Labeling and Team Building[36:37] Reflections on OpenAI[42:12] Quickfire With your co-hosts: @jacobeffron - Partner at Redpoint, Former PM Flatiron Health @patrickachase - Partner at Redpoint, Former ML Engineer LinkedIn @ericabrescia - Former COO Github, Founder Bitnami (acq'd by VMWare) @jordan_segall - Partner at Redpoint

ABOUT COLLEEN TARTOWColleen Tartow, Ph.D. is Field CTO and Head of Strategy at VAST Data and has 20+ years of experience in data, analytics, engineering, and consulting. Adept at assisting organizations in deriving value from a data-driven culture, she has successfully led diverse data, engineering, and analytics teams through the development of complex global data management solutions and architecting enterprise data systems. Her demonstrated excellence in data, engineering, analytics, and diversity leadership makes her a trusted senior advisor among executives. An experienced speaker, author, valued mentor and startup advisor, Colleen holds degrees in astrophysics and lives in Massachusetts.ABOUT JIM LIUJim Liu is an accomplished engineering leader with a track record of driving business outcomes at companies like StockX and Nordstrom. He is also an active community builder with Engineering Leader Community and Angel Investor communities. Jim and his family reside in Seattle, WA.ABOUT DIVYA ALAVARTHIDivya Alavarthi is an experienced engineering and business leader with 14+ years of expertise in architecture, engineering, product delivery, pre-sales, professional services, and organizational leadership. She developed Salesforce Platform architecture standards, best practices, and minimal viable architectures. She supported a talent pool of 5000+ architects and developers resulting in improved strategic agility, speed to market, and business value in large-scale multi-cloud implementations.This episode is brought to you by Clipboard HealthClipboard Health is looking for the next generation of exceptional software engineering leaders, not just managers. They're a profitable unicorn, backed by top-tier investors, and they take the craft of engineering management seriously.Clipboard Health matches highly qualified healthcare workers with nearby facilities to fulfill millions of shifts a year - revolutionizing healthcare staffing with a fast, flexible, and user-friendly platform.Learn more & browse their open roles at clipboardhealth.com/engineeringSHOW NOTES:The importance of leadership in hiring (1:29)The Tartow Method Explained: Key aspects of a successful hiring practice (3:57)How to build out the interview process & ask the right questions (6:14)Behavioral Interviews and good responses: Tips for gaining clarity from interviewees on abstract skills (7:52)Where eng leaders can start building their hiring skill set (9:16)Colleen's experience co-leading ELC Boston & advice for 1st time event attendees (10:36)Understanding how to model problems as engineering challenges (14:41)How to use an engineering mindset to tackle personal problems (16:35)Jim's process for deconstructing problems & solving them like an engineer (18:38)Tips for building / applying your skill set around abstracting problems (21:27)Jim's perspective on getting involved with a local ELC community (24:36)Ways to help make the most out of your first ELC local experience (27:05)Divya shares about the power of storytelling in engineering leadership (30:07)Build the narrative about your product's business impact (32:24)An example of bringing different demos & storytelling together (34:09)Frameworks for effective storytelling: build a narrative around a product / demo (36:16)How to start improving your storytelling today (37:35)Divya's favorite moments with the ELC Seattle chapter & how to get involved (39:42)LINKS AND RESOURCESCheck out all of our local chapters & get involved here: elc.community/home/clubsThis episode wouldn't have been possible without the help of our incredible production team:Patrick Gallagher - Producer & Co-HostJerry Li - Co-HostNoah Olberding - Associate Producer, Audio & Video Editor https://www.linkedin.com/in/noah-olberding/Dan Overheim - Audio Engineer, Dan's also an avid 3D printer - https://www.bnd3d.com/Ellie Coggins Angus - Copywriter, Check out her other work at https://elliecoggins.com/about/

We were live for the first time this year! Show Notes: Run Time: 1:32:51 Lots of goofs, silliness, mistakes, apologies, answers, justifications, and ridiculous listener interactions (encompassing interactions that are ridiculous AND listeners who are ridiculous — you know who you are), all of which means: it's another Editor's Note! Thank you all for being a part of this. We also announced the upcoming schedule:  Tuesday, February 4th: Episode #308 - Writers' Room: K.N.Y.F.E. can't just punch her way out of a situation Tuesday, February 11th: Episode #309 - Writers' Room: Disparation: a modern hero in the Golden Age Tuesday, February 18th: Editor's Note #88 Tuesday, February 25th: Episode #310 - Creative Process: Other Scions of OblivAeon Also, we had another installment of the Yarniverse from our industrious listener Kyrie Wynne! Featuring... Vis-yarn-ary! Craft-ain Cosmic! The Darn-gent Adept! and Weave! We love them. Join us next week for yet another Creative Process episode! About a distant future limited series? What could that possibly mean?! You'll just have to listen to find out!

* Tribes of Cara Fahd: The Thunderers * Astrologically-inclined tribe. * Emerged from their kaer during a storm. * Adapted and changed from raiding to trade and mercenary service. * More spiritual bent; influence from their shared experience. * Are not family-exclusive. Open to other orks joining them. * Significant portion of their tribe are cavalry. * Overview of Thunderer training. * Forces organized around "cerri" -- small, tight-knit groups. * Adept cerri frequently swear oaths and form group patterns. * Elite forces, but not egotistical about it. Much respect from other tribes. * Very organized, routine-oriented tribe. * Feelings of obsidiman or troll spirituality to the Thunderers. * "Strong, silent types." * Questors are rare; they honor them all (thirteen) in turn. * Association with Cara Fahd * Waited for sign to join Krathis Gron... and got it. * Have adapted again, settling in to Cara Fahd as their home. * Current chief is Krathis Gron's primary military advisor. * True believers, but not as dramatic about it. * Speculation on the Thunderers' role in the Second Theran War. * Rebuilding the ruins of an old Cara Fahd city - New Revalk * Influential members of the Thunderers. * Clever twist/deconstruction on the stereotypical ork tribe. Find and Follow: Email: edsgpodcast@gmail.com YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@EDSGPodcast Find and follow Josh: https://linktr.ee/LoreMerchant Get product information, developer blogs, and more at www.fasagames.com FASA Games on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/fasagamesinc Official Earthdawn Facebook Group: https://www.facebook.com/groups/officialearthdawn FASA Games Discord Channel: https://discord.gg/uuVwS9u Earthdawn West Marches: https://discord.gg/hhHDtXW

Applications for the 2025 AI Engineer Summit are up, and you can save the date for AIE Singapore in April and AIE World's Fair 2025 in June.Happy new year, and thanks for 100 great episodes! Please let us know what you want to see/hear for the next 100!Full YouTube Episode with Slides/ChartsLike and subscribe and hit that bell to get notifs!Timestamps* 00:00 Welcome to the 100th Episode!* 00:19 Reflecting on the Journey* 00:47 AI Engineering: The Rise and Impact* 03:15 Latent Space Live and AI Conferences* 09:44 The Competitive AI Landscape* 21:45 Synthetic Data and Future Trends* 35:53 Creative Writing with AI* 36:12 Legal and Ethical Issues in AI* 38:18 The Data War: GPU Poor vs. GPU Rich* 39:12 The Rise of GPU Ultra Rich* 40:47 Emerging Trends in AI Models* 45:31 The Multi-Modality War* 01:05:31 The Future of AI Benchmarks* 01:13:17 Pionote and Frontier Models* 01:13:47 Niche Models and Base Models* 01:14:30 State Space Models and RWKB* 01:15:48 Inference Race and Price Wars* 01:22:16 Major AI Themes of the Year* 01:22:48 AI Rewind: January to March* 01:26:42 AI Rewind: April to June* 01:33:12 AI Rewind: July to September* 01:34:59 AI Rewind: October to December* 01:39:53 Year-End Reflections and PredictionsTranscript[00:00:00] Welcome to the 100th Episode![00:00:00] Alessio: Hey everyone, welcome to the Latent Space Podcast. This is Alessio, partner and CTO at Decibel Partners, and I'm joined by my co host Swyx for the 100th time today.[00:00:12] swyx: Yay, um, and we're so glad that, yeah, you know, everyone has, uh, followed us in this journey. How do you feel about it? 100 episodes.[00:00:19] Alessio: Yeah, I know.[00:00:19] Reflecting on the Journey[00:00:19] Alessio: Almost two years that we've been doing this. We've had four different studios. Uh, we've had a lot of changes. You know, we used to do this lightning round. When we first started that we didn't like, and we tried to change the question. The answer[00:00:32] swyx: was cursor and perplexity.[00:00:34] Alessio: Yeah, I love mid journey. It's like, do you really not like anything else?[00:00:38] Alessio: Like what's, what's the unique thing? And I think, yeah, we, we've also had a lot more research driven content. You know, we had like 3DAO, we had, you know. Jeremy Howard, we had more folks like that.[00:00:47] AI Engineering: The Rise and Impact[00:00:47] Alessio: I think we want to do more of that too in the new year, like having, uh, some of the Gemini folks, both on the research and the applied side.[00:00:54] Alessio: Yeah, but it's been a ton of fun. I think we both started, I wouldn't say as a joke, we were kind of like, Oh, we [00:01:00] should do a podcast. And I think we kind of caught the right wave, obviously. And I think your rise of the AI engineer posts just kind of get people. Sombra to congregate, and then the AI engineer summit.[00:01:11] Alessio: And that's why when I look at our growth chart, it's kind of like a proxy for like the AI engineering industry as a whole, which is almost like, like, even if we don't do that much, we keep growing just because there's so many more AI engineers. So did you expect that growth or did you expect that would take longer for like the AI engineer thing to kind of like become, you know, everybody talks about it today.[00:01:32] swyx: So, the sign of that, that we have won is that Gartner puts it at the top of the hype curve right now. So Gartner has called the peak in AI engineering. I did not expect, um, to what level. I knew that I was correct when I called it because I did like two months of work going into that. But I didn't know, You know, how quickly it could happen, and obviously there's a chance that I could be wrong.[00:01:52] swyx: But I think, like, most people have come around to that concept. Hacker News hates it, which is a good sign. But there's enough people that have defined it, you know, GitHub, when [00:02:00] they launched GitHub Models, which is the Hugging Face clone, they put AI engineers in the banner, like, above the fold, like, in big So I think it's like kind of arrived as a meaningful and useful definition.[00:02:12] swyx: I think people are trying to figure out where the boundaries are. I think that was a lot of the quote unquote drama that happens behind the scenes at the World's Fair in June. Because I think there's a lot of doubt or questions about where ML engineering stops and AI engineering starts. That's a useful debate to be had.[00:02:29] swyx: In some sense, I actually anticipated that as well. So I intentionally did not. Put a firm definition there because most of the successful definitions are necessarily underspecified and it's actually useful to have different perspectives and you don't have to specify everything from the outset.[00:02:45] Alessio: Yeah, I was at um, AWS reInvent and the line to get into like the AI engineering talk, so to speak, which is, you know, applied AI and whatnot was like, there are like hundreds of people just in line to go in.[00:02:56] Alessio: I think that's kind of what enabled me. People, right? Which is what [00:03:00] you kind of talked about. It's like, Hey, look, you don't actually need a PhD, just, yeah, just use the model. And then maybe we'll talk about some of the blind spots that you get as an engineer with the earlier posts that we also had on on the sub stack.[00:03:11] Alessio: But yeah, it's been a heck of a heck of a two years.[00:03:14] swyx: Yeah.[00:03:15] Latent Space Live and AI Conferences[00:03:15] swyx: You know, I was, I was trying to view the conference as like, so NeurIPS is I think like 16, 17, 000 people. And the Latent Space Live event that we held there was 950 signups. I think. The AI world, the ML world is still very much research heavy. And that's as it should be because ML is very much in a research phase.[00:03:34] swyx: But as we move this entire field into production, I think that ratio inverts into becoming more engineering heavy. So at least I think engineering should be on the same level, even if it's never as prestigious, like it'll always be low status because at the end of the day, you're manipulating APIs or whatever.[00:03:51] swyx: But Yeah, wrapping GPTs, but there's going to be an increasing stack and an art to doing these, these things well. And I, you know, I [00:04:00] think that's what we're focusing on for the podcast, the conference and basically everything I do seems to make sense. And I think we'll, we'll talk about the trends here that apply.[00:04:09] swyx: It's, it's just very strange. So, like, there's a mix of, like, keeping on top of research while not being a researcher and then putting that research into production. So, like, people always ask me, like, why are you covering Neuralibs? Like, this is a ML research conference and I'm like, well, yeah, I mean, we're not going to, to like, understand everything Or reproduce every single paper, but the stuff that is being found here is going to make it through into production at some point, you hope.[00:04:32] swyx: And then actually like when I talk to the researchers, they actually get very excited because they're like, oh, you guys are actually caring about how this goes into production and that's what they really really want. The measure of success is previously just peer review, right? Getting 7s and 8s on their um, Academic review conferences and stuff like citations is one metric, but money is a better metric.[00:04:51] Alessio: Money is a better metric. Yeah, and there were about 2200 people on the live stream or something like that. Yeah, yeah. Hundred on the live stream. So [00:05:00] I try my best to moderate, but it was a lot spicier in person with Jonathan and, and Dylan. Yeah, that it was in the chat on YouTube.[00:05:06] swyx: I would say that I actually also created.[00:05:09] swyx: Layen Space Live in order to address flaws that are perceived in academic conferences. This is not NeurIPS specific, it's ICML, NeurIPS. Basically, it's very sort of oriented towards the PhD student, uh, market, job market, right? Like literally all, basically everyone's there to advertise their research and skills and get jobs.[00:05:28] swyx: And then obviously all the, the companies go there to hire them. And I think that's great for the individual researchers, but for people going there to get info is not great because you have to read between the lines, bring a ton of context in order to understand every single paper. So what is missing is effectively what I ended up doing, which is domain by domain, go through and recap the best of the year.[00:05:48] swyx: Survey the field. And there are, like NeurIPS had a, uh, I think ICML had a like a position paper track, NeurIPS added a benchmarks, uh, datasets track. These are ways in which to address that [00:06:00] issue. Uh, there's always workshops as well. Every, every conference has, you know, a last day of workshops and stuff that provide more of an overview.[00:06:06] swyx: But they're not specifically prompted to do so. And I think really, uh, Organizing a conference is just about getting good speakers and giving them the correct prompts. And then they will just go and do that thing and they do a very good job of it. So I think Sarah did a fantastic job with the startups prompt.[00:06:21] swyx: I can't list everybody, but we did best of 2024 in startups, vision, open models. Post transformers, synthetic data, small models, and agents. And then the last one was the, uh, and then we also did a quick one on reasoning with Nathan Lambert. And then the last one, obviously, was the debate that people were very hyped about.[00:06:39] swyx: It was very awkward. And I'm really, really thankful for John Franco, basically, who stepped up to challenge Dylan. Because Dylan was like, yeah, I'll do it. But He was pro scaling. And I think everyone who is like in AI is pro scaling, right? So you need somebody who's ready to publicly say, no, we've hit a wall.[00:06:57] swyx: So that means you're saying Sam Altman's wrong. [00:07:00] You're saying, um, you know, everyone else is wrong. It helps that this was the day before Ilya went on, went up on stage and then said pre training has hit a wall. And data has hit a wall. So actually Jonathan ended up winning, and then Ilya supported that statement, and then Noam Brown on the last day further supported that statement as well.[00:07:17] swyx: So it's kind of interesting that I think the consensus kind of going in was that we're not done scaling, like you should believe in a better lesson. And then, four straight days in a row, you had Sepp Hochreiter, who is the creator of the LSTM, along with everyone's favorite OG in AI, which is Juergen Schmidhuber.[00:07:34] swyx: He said that, um, we're pre trading inside a wall, or like, we've run into a different kind of wall. And then we have, you know John Frankel, Ilya, and then Noam Brown are all saying variations of the same thing, that we have hit some kind of wall in the status quo of what pre trained, scaling large pre trained models has looked like, and we need a new thing.[00:07:54] swyx: And obviously the new thing for people is some make, either people are calling it inference time compute or test time [00:08:00] compute. I think the collective terminology has been inference time, and I think that makes sense because test time, calling it test, meaning, has a very pre trained bias, meaning that the only reason for running inference at all is to test your model.[00:08:11] swyx: That is not true. Right. Yeah. So, so, I quite agree that. OpenAI seems to have adopted, or the community seems to have adopted this terminology of ITC instead of TTC. And that, that makes a lot of sense because like now we care about inference, even right down to compute optimality. Like I actually interviewed this author who recovered or reviewed the Chinchilla paper.[00:08:31] swyx: Chinchilla paper is compute optimal training, but what is not stated in there is it's pre trained compute optimal training. And once you start caring about inference, compute optimal training, you have a different scaling law. And in a way that we did not know last year.[00:08:45] Alessio: I wonder, because John is, he's also on the side of attention is all you need.[00:08:49] Alessio: Like he had the bet with Sasha. So I'm curious, like he doesn't believe in scaling, but he thinks the transformer, I wonder if he's still. So, so,[00:08:56] swyx: so he, obviously everything is nuanced and you know, I told him to play a character [00:09:00] for this debate, right? So he actually does. Yeah. He still, he still believes that we can scale more.[00:09:04] swyx: Uh, he just assumed the character to be very game for, for playing this debate. So even more kudos to him that he assumed a position that he didn't believe in and still won the debate.[00:09:16] Alessio: Get rekt, Dylan. Um, do you just want to quickly run through some of these things? Like, uh, Sarah's presentation, just the highlights.[00:09:24] swyx: Yeah, we can't go through everyone's slides, but I pulled out some things as a factor of, like, stuff that we were going to talk about. And we'll[00:09:30] Alessio: publish[00:09:31] swyx: the rest. Yeah, we'll publish on this feed the best of 2024 in those domains. And hopefully people can benefit from the work that our speakers have done.[00:09:39] swyx: But I think it's, uh, these are just good slides. And I've been, I've been looking for a sort of end of year recaps from, from people.[00:09:44] The Competitive AI Landscape[00:09:44] swyx: The field has progressed a lot. You know, I think the max ELO in 2023 on LMSys used to be 1200 for LMSys ELOs. And now everyone is at least at, uh, 1275 in their ELOs, and this is across Gemini, Chadjibuti, [00:10:00] Grok, O1.[00:10:01] swyx: ai, which with their E Large model, and Enthopic, of course. It's a very, very competitive race. There are multiple Frontier labs all racing, but there is a clear tier zero Frontier. And then there's like a tier one. It's like, I wish I had everything else. Tier zero is extremely competitive. It's effectively now three horse race between Gemini, uh, Anthropic and OpenAI.[00:10:21] swyx: I would say that people are still holding out a candle for XAI. XAI, I think, for some reason, because their API was very slow to roll out, is not included in these metrics. So it's actually quite hard to put on there. As someone who also does charts, XAI is continually snubbed because they don't work well with the benchmarking people.[00:10:42] swyx: Yeah, yeah, yeah. It's a little trivia for why XAI always gets ignored. The other thing is market share. So these are slides from Sarah. We have it up on the screen. It has gone from very heavily open AI. So we have some numbers and estimates. These are from RAMP. Estimates of open AI market share in [00:11:00] December 2023.[00:11:01] swyx: And this is basically, what is it, GPT being 95 percent of production traffic. And I think if you correlate that with stuff that we asked. Harrison Chase on the LangChain episode, it was true. And then CLAUD 3 launched mid middle of this year. I think CLAUD 3 launched in March, CLAUD 3. 5 Sonnet was in June ish.[00:11:23] swyx: And you can start seeing the market share shift towards opening, uh, towards that topic, uh, very, very aggressively. The more recent one is Gemini. So if I scroll down a little bit, this is an even more recent dataset. So RAM's dataset ends in September 2 2. 2024. Gemini has basically launched a price war at the low end, uh, with Gemini Flash, uh, being basically free for personal use.[00:11:44] swyx: Like, I think people don't understand the free tier. It's something like a billion tokens per day. Unless you're trying to abuse it, you cannot really exhaust your free tier on Gemini. They're really trying to get you to use it. They know they're in like third place, um, fourth place, depending how you, how you count.[00:11:58] swyx: And so they're going after [00:12:00] the Lower tier first, and then, you know, maybe the upper tier later, but yeah, Gemini Flash, according to OpenRouter, is now 50 percent of their OpenRouter requests. Obviously, these are the small requests. These are small, cheap requests that are mathematically going to be more.[00:12:15] swyx: The smart ones obviously are still going to OpenAI. But, you know, it's a very, very big shift in the market. Like basically 2023, 2022, To going into 2024 opening has gone from nine five market share to Yeah. Reasonably somewhere between 50 to 75 market share.[00:12:29] Alessio: Yeah. I'm really curious how ramped does the attribution to the model?[00:12:32] Alessio: If it's API, because I think it's all credit card spin. . Well, but it's all, the credit card doesn't say maybe. Maybe the, maybe when they do expenses, they upload the PDF, but yeah, the, the German I think makes sense. I think that was one of my main 2024 takeaways that like. The best small model companies are the large labs, which is not something I would have thought that the open source kind of like long tail would be like the small model.[00:12:53] swyx: Yeah, different sizes of small models we're talking about here, right? Like so small model here for Gemini is AB, [00:13:00] right? Uh, mini. We don't know what the small model size is, but yeah, it's probably in the double digits or maybe single digits, but probably double digits. The open source community has kind of focused on the one to three B size.[00:13:11] swyx: Mm-hmm . Yeah. Maybe[00:13:12] swyx: zero, maybe 0.5 B uh, that's moon dream and that is small for you then, then that's great. It makes sense that we, we have a range for small now, which is like, may, maybe one to five B. Yeah. I'll even put that at, at, at the high end. And so this includes Gemma from Gemini as well. But also includes the Apple Foundation models, which I think Apple Foundation is 3B.[00:13:32] Alessio: Yeah. No, that's great. I mean, I think in the start small just meant cheap. I think today small is actually a more nuanced discussion, you know, that people weren't really having before.[00:13:43] swyx: Yeah, we can keep going. This is a slide that I smiley disagree with Sarah. She's pointing to the scale SEAL leaderboard. I think the Researchers that I talked with at NeurIPS were kind of positive on this because basically you need private test [00:14:00] sets to prevent contamination.[00:14:02] swyx: And Scale is one of maybe three or four people this year that has really made an effort in doing a credible private test set leaderboard. Llama405B does well compared to Gemini and GPT 40. And I think that's good. I would say that. You know, it's good to have an open model that is that big, that does well on those metrics.[00:14:23] swyx: But anyone putting 405B in production will tell you, if you scroll down a little bit to the artificial analysis numbers, that it is very slow and very expensive to infer. Um, it doesn't even fit on like one node. of, uh, of H100s. Cerebras will be happy to tell you they can serve 4 or 5B on their super large chips.[00:14:42] swyx: But, um, you know, if you need to do anything custom to it, you're still kind of constrained. So, is 4 or 5B really that relevant? Like, I think most people are basically saying that they only use 4 or 5B as a teacher model to distill down to something. Even Meta is doing it. So with Lama 3. [00:15:00] 3 launched, they only launched the 70B because they use 4 or 5B to distill the 70B.[00:15:03] swyx: So I don't know if like open source is keeping up. I think they're the, the open source industrial complex is very invested in telling you that the, if the gap is narrowing, I kind of disagree. I think that the gap is widening with O1. I think there are very, very smart people trying to narrow that gap and they should.[00:15:22] swyx: I really wish them success, but you cannot use a chart that is nearing 100 in your saturation chart. And look, the distance between open source and closed source is narrowing. Of course it's going to narrow because you're near 100. This is stupid. But in metrics that matter, is open source narrowing?[00:15:38] swyx: Probably not for O1 for a while. And it's really up to the open source guys to figure out if they can match O1 or not.[00:15:46] Alessio: I think inference time compute is bad for open source just because, you know, Doc can donate the flops at training time, but he cannot donate the flops at inference time. So it's really hard to like actually keep up on that axis.[00:15:59] Alessio: Big, big business [00:16:00] model shift. So I don't know what that means for the GPU clouds. I don't know what that means for the hyperscalers, but obviously the big labs have a lot of advantage. Because, like, it's not a static artifact that you're putting the compute in. You're kind of doing that still, but then you're putting a lot of computed inference too.[00:16:17] swyx: Yeah, yeah, yeah. Um, I mean, Llama4 will be reasoning oriented. We talked with Thomas Shalom. Um, kudos for getting that episode together. That was really nice. Good, well timed. Actually, I connected with the AI meta guy, uh, at NeurIPS, and, um, yeah, we're going to coordinate something for Llama4. Yeah, yeah,[00:16:32] Alessio: and our friend, yeah.[00:16:33] Alessio: Clara Shi just joined to lead the business agent side. So I'm sure we'll have her on in the new year.[00:16:39] swyx: Yeah. So, um, my comment on, on the business model shift, this is super interesting. Apparently it is wide knowledge that OpenAI wanted more than 6. 6 billion dollars for their fundraise. They wanted to raise, you know, higher, and they did not.[00:16:51] swyx: And what that means is basically like, it's very convenient that we're not getting GPT 5, which would have been a larger pre train. We should have a lot of upfront money. And [00:17:00] instead we're, we're converting fixed costs into variable costs, right. And passing it on effectively to the customer. And it's so much easier to take margin there because you can directly attribute it to like, Oh, you're using this more.[00:17:12] swyx: Therefore you, you pay more of the cost and I'll just slap a margin in there. So like that lets you control your growth margin and like tie your. Your spend, or your sort of inference spend, accordingly. And it's just really interesting to, that this change in the sort of inference paradigm has arrived exactly at the same time that the funding environment for pre training is effectively drying up, kind of.[00:17:36] swyx: I feel like maybe the VCs are very in tune with research anyway, so like, they would have noticed this, but, um, it's just interesting.[00:17:43] Alessio: Yeah, and I was looking back at our yearly recap of last year. Yeah. And the big thing was like the mixed trial price fights, you know, and I think now it's almost like there's nowhere to go, like, you know, Gemini Flash is like basically giving it away for free.[00:17:55] Alessio: So I think this is a good way for the labs to generate more revenue and pass down [00:18:00] some of the compute to the customer. I think they're going to[00:18:02] swyx: keep going. I think that 2, will come.[00:18:05] Alessio: Yeah, I know. Totally. I mean, next year, the first thing I'm doing is signing up for Devin. Signing up for the pro chat GBT.[00:18:12] Alessio: Just to try. I just want to see what does it look like to spend a thousand dollars a month on AI?[00:18:17] swyx: Yes. Yes. I think if your, if your, your job is a, at least AI content creator or VC or, you know, someone who, whose job it is to stay on, stay on top of things, you should already be spending like a thousand dollars a month on, on stuff.[00:18:28] swyx: And then obviously easy to spend, hard to use. You have to actually use. The good thing is that actually Google lets you do a lot of stuff for free now. So like deep research. That they just launched. Uses a ton of inference and it's, it's free while it's in preview.[00:18:45] Alessio: Yeah. They need to put that in Lindy.[00:18:47] Alessio: I've been using Lindy lately. I've been a built a bunch of things once we had flow because I liked the new thing. It's pretty good. I even did a phone call assistant. Um, yeah, they just launched Lindy voice. Yeah, I think once [00:19:00] they get advanced voice mode like capability today, still like speech to text, you can kind of tell.[00:19:06] Alessio: Um, but it's good for like reservations and things like that. So I have a meeting prepper thing. And so[00:19:13] swyx: it's good. Okay. I feel like we've, we've covered a lot of stuff. Uh, I, yeah, I, you know, I think We will go over the individual, uh, talks in a separate episode. Uh, I don't want to take too much time with, uh, this stuff, but that suffice to say that there is a lot of progress in each field.[00:19:28] swyx: Uh, we covered vision. Basically this is all like the audience voting for what they wanted. And then I just invited the best people I could find in each audience, especially agents. Um, Graham, who I talked to at ICML in Vienna, he is currently still number one. It's very hard to stay on top of SweetBench.[00:19:45] swyx: OpenHand is currently still number one. switchbench full, which is the hardest one. He had very good thoughts on agents, which I, which I'll highlight for people. Everyone is saying 2025 is the year of agents, just like they said last year. And, uh, but he had [00:20:00] thoughts on like eight parts of what are the frontier problems to solve in agents.[00:20:03] swyx: And so I'll highlight that talk as well.[00:20:05] Alessio: Yeah. The number six, which is the Hacken agents learn more about the environment, has been a Super interesting to us as well, just to think through, because, yeah, how do you put an agent in an enterprise where most things in an enterprise have never been public, you know, a lot of the tooling, like the code bases and things like that.[00:20:23] Alessio: So, yeah, there's not indexing and reg. Well, yeah, but it's more like. You can't really rag things that are not documented. But people know them based on how they've been doing it. You know, so I think there's almost this like, you know, Oh, institutional knowledge. Yeah, the boring word is kind of like a business process extraction.[00:20:38] Alessio: Yeah yeah, I see. It's like, how do you actually understand how these things are done? I see. Um, and I think today the, the problem is that, Yeah, the agents are, that most people are building are good at following instruction, but are not as good as like extracting them from you. Um, so I think that will be a big unlock just to touch quickly on the Jeff Dean thing.[00:20:55] Alessio: I thought it was pretty, I mean, we'll link it in the, in the things, but. I think the main [00:21:00] focus was like, how do you use ML to optimize the systems instead of just focusing on ML to do something else? Yeah, I think speculative decoding, we had, you know, Eugene from RWKB on the podcast before, like he's doing a lot of that with Fetterless AI.[00:21:12] swyx: Everyone is. I would say it's the norm. I'm a little bit uncomfortable with how much it costs, because it does use more of the GPU per call. But because everyone is so keen on fast inference, then yeah, makes sense.[00:21:24] Alessio: Exactly. Um, yeah, but we'll link that. Obviously Jeff is great.[00:21:30] swyx: Jeff is, Jeff's talk was more, it wasn't focused on Gemini.[00:21:33] swyx: I think people got the wrong impression from my tweet. It's more about how Google approaches ML and uses ML to design systems and then systems feedback into ML. And I think this ties in with Lubna's talk.[00:21:45] Synthetic Data and Future Trends[00:21:45] swyx: on synthetic data where it's basically the story of bootstrapping of humans and AI in AI research or AI in production.[00:21:53] swyx: So her talk was on synthetic data, where like how much synthetic data has grown in 2024 in the pre training side, the post training side, [00:22:00] and the eval side. And I think Jeff then also extended it basically to chips, uh, to chip design. So he'd spend a lot of time talking about alpha chip. And most of us in the audience are like, we're not working on hardware, man.[00:22:11] swyx: Like you guys are great. TPU is great. Okay. We'll buy TPUs.[00:22:14] Alessio: And then there was the earlier talk. Yeah. But, and then we have, uh, I don't know if we're calling them essays. What are we calling these? But[00:22:23] swyx: for me, it's just like bonus for late in space supporters, because I feel like they haven't been getting anything.[00:22:29] swyx: And then I wanted a more high frequency way to write stuff. Like that one I wrote in an afternoon. I think basically we now have an answer to what Ilya saw. It's one year since. The blip. And we know what he saw in 2014. We know what he saw in 2024. We think we know what he sees in 2024. He gave some hints and then we have vague indications of what he saw in 2023.[00:22:54] swyx: So that was the Oh, and then 2016 as well, because of this lawsuit with Elon, OpenAI [00:23:00] is publishing emails from Sam's, like, his personal text messages to Siobhan, Zelis, or whatever. So, like, we have emails from Ilya saying, this is what we're seeing in OpenAI, and this is why we need to scale up GPUs. And I think it's very prescient in 2016 to write that.[00:23:16] swyx: And so, like, it is exactly, like, basically his insights. It's him and Greg, basically just kind of driving the scaling up of OpenAI, while they're still playing Dota. They're like, no, like, we see the path here.[00:23:30] Alessio: Yeah, and it's funny, yeah, they even mention, you know, we can only train on 1v1 Dota. We need to train on 5v5, and that takes too many GPUs.[00:23:37] Alessio: Yeah,[00:23:37] swyx: and at least for me, I can speak for myself, like, I didn't see the path from Dota to where we are today. I think even, maybe if you ask them, like, they wouldn't necessarily draw a straight line. Yeah,[00:23:47] Alessio: no, definitely. But I think like that was like the whole idea of almost like the RL and we talked about this with Nathan on his podcast.[00:23:55] Alessio: It's like with RL, you can get very good at specific things, but then you can't really like generalize as much. And I [00:24:00] think the language models are like the opposite, which is like, you're going to throw all this data at them and scale them up, but then you really need to drive them home on a specific task later on.[00:24:08] Alessio: And we'll talk about the open AI reinforcement, fine tuning, um, announcement too, and all of that. But yeah, I think like scale is all you need. That's kind of what Elia will be remembered for. And I think just maybe to clarify on like the pre training is over thing that people love to tweet. I think the point of the talk was like everybody, we're scaling these chips, we're scaling the compute, but like the second ingredient which is data is not scaling at the same rate.[00:24:35] Alessio: So it's not necessarily pre training is over. It's kind of like What got us here won't get us there. In his email, he predicted like 10x growth every two years or something like that. And I think maybe now it's like, you know, you can 10x the chips again, but[00:24:49] swyx: I think it's 10x per year. Was it? I don't know.[00:24:52] Alessio: Exactly. And Moore's law is like 2x. So it's like, you know, much faster than that. And yeah, I like the fossil fuel of AI [00:25:00] analogy. It's kind of like, you know, the little background tokens thing. So the OpenAI reinforcement fine tuning is basically like, instead of fine tuning on data, you fine tune on a reward model.[00:25:09] Alessio: So it's basically like, instead of being data driven, it's like task driven. And I think people have tasks to do, they don't really have a lot of data. So I'm curious to see how that changes, how many people fine tune, because I think this is what people run into. It's like, Oh, you can fine tune llama. And it's like, okay, where do I get the data?[00:25:27] Alessio: To fine tune it on, you know, so it's great that we're moving the thing. And then I really like he had this chart where like, you know, the brain mass and the body mass thing is basically like mammals that scaled linearly by brain and body size, and then humans kind of like broke off the slope. So it's almost like maybe the mammal slope is like the pre training slope.[00:25:46] Alessio: And then the post training slope is like the, the human one.[00:25:49] swyx: Yeah. I wonder what the. I mean, we'll know in 10 years, but I wonder what the y axis is for, for Ilya's SSI. We'll try to get them on.[00:25:57] Alessio: Ilya, if you're listening, you're [00:26:00] welcome here. Yeah, and then he had, you know, what comes next, like agent, synthetic data, inference, compute, I thought all of that was like that.[00:26:05] Alessio: I don't[00:26:05] swyx: think he was dropping any alpha there. Yeah, yeah, yeah.[00:26:07] Alessio: Yeah. Any other new reps? Highlights?[00:26:10] swyx: I think that there was comparatively a lot more work. Oh, by the way, I need to plug that, uh, my friend Yi made this, like, little nice paper. Yeah, that was really[00:26:20] swyx: nice.[00:26:20] swyx: Uh, of, uh, of, like, all the, he's, she called it must read papers of 2024.[00:26:26] swyx: So I laid out some of these at NeurIPS, and it was just gone. Like, everyone just picked it up. Because people are dying for, like, little guidance and visualizations And so, uh, I thought it was really super nice that we got there.[00:26:38] Alessio: Should we do a late in space book for each year? Uh, I thought about it. For each year we should.[00:26:42] Alessio: Coffee table book. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Put it in the will. Hi, Will. By the way, we haven't introduced you. He's our new, you know, general organist, Jamie. You need to[00:26:52] swyx: pull up more things. One thing I saw that, uh, Okay, one fun one, and then one [00:27:00] more general one. So the fun one is this paper on agent collusion. This is a paper on steganography.[00:27:06] swyx: This is secret collusion among AI agents, multi agent deception via steganography. I tried to go to NeurIPS in order to find these kinds of papers because the real reason Like NeurIPS this year has a lottery system. A lot of people actually even go and don't buy tickets because they just go and attend the side events.[00:27:22] swyx: And then also the people who go and end up crowding around the most popular papers, which you already know and already read them before you showed up to NeurIPS. So the only reason you go there is to talk to the paper authors, but there's like something like 10, 000 other. All these papers out there that, you know, are just people's work that they, that they did on the air and they failed to get attention for one reason or another.[00:27:42] swyx: And this was one of them. Uh, it was like all the way at the back. And this is a deep mind paper that actually focuses on collusion between AI agents, uh, by hiding messages in the text that they generate. Uh, so that's what steganography is. So a very simple example would be the first letter of every word.[00:27:57] swyx: If you Pick that out, you know, and the code sends a [00:28:00] different message than that. But something I've always emphasized is to LLMs, we read left to right. LLMs can read up, down, sideways, you know, in random character order. And it's the same to them as it is to us. So if we were ever to get You know, self motivated, underlined LLMs that we're trying to collaborate to take over the planet.[00:28:19] swyx: This would be how they do it. They spread messages among us in the messages that we generate. And he developed a scaling law for that. So he marked, I'm showing it on screen right now, the emergence of this phenomenon. Basically, for example, for Cypher encoding, GPT 2, Lama 2, mixed trial, GPT 3. 5, zero capabilities, and sudden 4.[00:28:40] swyx: And this is the kind of Jason Wei type emergence properties that people kind of look for. I think what made this paper stand out as well, so he developed the benchmark for steganography collusion, and he also focused on shelling point collusion, which is very low coordination. For agreeing on a decoding encoding format, you kind of need to have some [00:29:00] agreement on that.[00:29:00] swyx: But, but shelling point means like very, very low or almost no coordination. So for example, if I, if I ask someone, if the only message I give you is meet me in New York and you're not aware. Or when you would probably meet me at Grand Central Station. That is the Grand Central Station is a shelling point.[00:29:16] swyx: And it's probably somewhere, somewhere during the day. That is the shelling point of New York is Grand Central. To that extent, shelling points for steganography are things like the, the, the common decoding methods that we talked about. It will be interesting at some point in the future when we are worried about alignment.[00:29:30] swyx: It is not interesting today, but it's interesting that DeepMind is already thinking about this.[00:29:36] Alessio: I think that's like one of the hardest things about NeurIPS. It's like the long tail. I[00:29:41] swyx: found a pricing guy. I'm going to feature him on the podcast. Basically, this guy from NVIDIA worked out the optimal pricing for language models.[00:29:51] swyx: It's basically an econometrics paper at NeurIPS, where everyone else is talking about GPUs. And the guy with the GPUs is[00:29:57] Alessio: talking[00:29:57] swyx: about economics instead. [00:30:00] That was the sort of fun one. So the focus I saw is that model papers at NeurIPS are kind of dead. No one really presents models anymore. It's just data sets.[00:30:12] swyx: This is all the grad students are working on. So like there was a data sets track and then I was looking around like, I was like, you don't need a data sets track because every paper is a data sets paper. And so data sets and benchmarks, they're kind of flip sides of the same thing. So Yeah. Cool. Yeah, if you're a grad student, you're a GPU boy, you kind of work on that.[00:30:30] swyx: And then the, the sort of big model that people walk around and pick the ones that they like, and then they use it in their models. And that's, that's kind of how it develops. I, I feel like, um, like, like you didn't last year, you had people like Hao Tian who worked on Lava, which is take Lama and add Vision.[00:30:47] swyx: And then obviously actually I hired him and he added Vision to Grok. Now he's the Vision Grok guy. This year, I don't think there was any of those.[00:30:55] Alessio: What were the most popular, like, orals? Last year it was like the [00:31:00] Mixed Monarch, I think, was like the most attended. Yeah, uh, I need to look it up. Yeah, I mean, if nothing comes to mind, that's also kind of like an answer in a way.[00:31:10] Alessio: But I think last year there was a lot of interest in, like, furthering models and, like, different architectures and all of that.[00:31:16] swyx: I will say that I felt the orals, oral picks this year were not very good. Either that or maybe it's just a So that's the highlight of how I have changed in terms of how I view papers.[00:31:29] swyx: So like, in my estimation, two of the best papers in this year for datasets or data comp and refined web or fine web. These are two actually industrially used papers, not highlighted for a while. I think DCLM got the spotlight, FineWeb didn't even get the spotlight. So like, it's just that the picks were different.[00:31:48] swyx: But one thing that does get a lot of play that a lot of people are debating is the role that's scheduled. This is the schedule free optimizer paper from Meta from Aaron DeFazio. And this [00:32:00] year in the ML community, there's been a lot of chat about shampoo, soap, all the bathroom amenities for optimizing your learning rates.[00:32:08] swyx: And, uh, most people at the big labs are. Who I asked about this, um, say that it's cute, but it's not something that matters. I don't know, but it's something that was discussed and very, very popular. 4Wars[00:32:19] Alessio: of AI recap maybe, just quickly. Um, where do you want to start? Data?[00:32:26] swyx: So to remind people, this is the 4Wars piece that we did as one of our earlier recaps of this year.[00:32:31] swyx: And the belligerents are on the left, journalists, writers, artists, anyone who owns IP basically, New York Times, Stack Overflow, Reddit, Getty, Sarah Silverman, George RR Martin. Yeah, and I think this year we can add Scarlett Johansson to that side of the fence. So anyone suing, open the eye, basically. I actually wanted to get a snapshot of all the lawsuits.[00:32:52] swyx: I'm sure some lawyer can do it. That's the data quality war. On the right hand side, we have the synthetic data people, and I think we talked about Lumna's talk, you know, [00:33:00] really showing how much synthetic data has come along this year. I think there was a bit of a fight between scale. ai and the synthetic data community, because scale.[00:33:09] swyx: ai published a paper saying that synthetic data doesn't work. Surprise, surprise, scale. ai is the leading vendor of non synthetic data. Only[00:33:17] Alessio: cage free annotated data is useful.[00:33:21] swyx: So I think there's some debate going on there, but I don't think it's much debate anymore that at least synthetic data, for the reasons that are blessed in Luna's talk, Makes sense.[00:33:32] swyx: I don't know if you have any perspectives there.[00:33:34] Alessio: I think, again, going back to the reinforcement fine tuning, I think that will change a little bit how people think about it. I think today people mostly use synthetic data, yeah, for distillation and kind of like fine tuning a smaller model from like a larger model.[00:33:46] Alessio: I'm not super aware of how the frontier labs use it outside of like the rephrase, the web thing that Apple also did. But yeah, I think it'll be. Useful. I think like whether or not that gets us the big [00:34:00] next step, I think that's maybe like TBD, you know, I think people love talking about data because it's like a GPU poor, you know, I think, uh, synthetic data is like something that people can do, you know, so they feel more opinionated about it compared to, yeah, the optimizers stuff, which is like,[00:34:17] swyx: they don't[00:34:17] Alessio: really work[00:34:18] swyx: on.[00:34:18] swyx: I think that there is an angle to the reasoning synthetic data. So this year, we covered in the paper club, the star series of papers. So that's star, Q star, V star. It basically helps you to synthesize reasoning steps, or at least distill reasoning steps from a verifier. And if you look at the OpenAI RFT, API that they released, or that they announced, basically they're asking you to submit graders, or they choose from a preset list of graders.[00:34:49] swyx: Basically It feels like a way to create valid synthetic data for them to fine tune their reasoning paths on. Um, so I think that is another angle where it starts to make sense. And [00:35:00] so like, it's very funny that basically all the data quality wars between Let's say the music industry or like the newspaper publishing industry or the textbooks industry on the big labs.[00:35:11] swyx: It's all of the pre training era. And then like the new era, like the reasoning era, like nobody has any problem with all the reasoning, especially because it's all like sort of math and science oriented with, with very reasonable graders. I think the more interesting next step is how does it generalize beyond STEM?[00:35:27] swyx: We've been using O1 for And I would say like for summarization and creative writing and instruction following, I think it's underrated. I started using O1 in our intro songs before we killed the intro songs, but it's very good at writing lyrics. You know, I can actually say like, I think one of the O1 pro demos.[00:35:46] swyx: All of these things that Noam was showing was that, you know, you can write an entire paragraph or three paragraphs without using the letter A, right?[00:35:53] Creative Writing with AI[00:35:53] swyx: So like, like literally just anything instead of token, like not even token level, character level manipulation and [00:36:00] counting and instruction following. It's, uh, it's very, very strong.[00:36:02] swyx: And so no surprises when I ask it to rhyme, uh, and to, to create song lyrics, it's going to do that very much better than in previous models. So I think it's underrated for creative writing.[00:36:11] Alessio: Yeah.[00:36:12] Legal and Ethical Issues in AI[00:36:12] Alessio: What do you think is the rationale that they're going to have in court when they don't show you the thinking traces of O1, but then they want us to, like, they're getting sued for using other publishers data, you know, but then on their end, they're like, well, you shouldn't be using my data to then train your model.[00:36:29] Alessio: So I'm curious to see how that kind of comes. Yeah, I mean, OPA has[00:36:32] swyx: many ways to publish, to punish people without bringing, taking them to court. Already banned ByteDance for distilling their, their info. And so anyone caught distilling the chain of thought will be just disallowed to continue on, on, on the API.[00:36:44] swyx: And it's fine. It's no big deal. Like, I don't even think that's an issue at all, just because the chain of thoughts are pretty well hidden. Like you have to work very, very hard to, to get it to leak. And then even when it leaks the chain of thought, you don't know if it's, if it's [00:37:00] The bigger concern is actually that there's not that much IP hiding behind it, that Cosign, which we talked about, we talked to him on Dev Day, can just fine tune 4.[00:37:13] swyx: 0 to beat 0. 1 Cloud SONET so far is beating O1 on coding tasks without, at least O1 preview, without being a reasoning model, same for Gemini Pro or Gemini 2. 0. So like, how much is reasoning important? How much of a moat is there in this, like, All of these are proprietary sort of training data that they've presumably accomplished.[00:37:34] swyx: Because even DeepSeek was able to do it. And they had, you know, two months notice to do this, to do R1. So, it's actually unclear how much moat there is. Obviously, you know, if you talk to the Strawberry team, they'll be like, yeah, I mean, we spent the last two years doing this. So, we don't know. And it's going to be Interesting because there'll be a lot of noise from people who say they have inference time compute and actually don't because they just have fancy chain of thought.[00:38:00][00:38:00] swyx: And then there's other people who actually do have very good chain of thought. And you will not see them on the same level as OpenAI because OpenAI has invested a lot in building up the mythology of their team. Um, which makes sense. Like the real answer is somewhere in between.[00:38:13] Alessio: Yeah, I think that's kind of like the main data war story developing.[00:38:18] The Data War: GPU Poor vs. GPU Rich[00:38:18] Alessio: GPU poor versus GPU rich. Yeah. Where do you think we are? I think there was, again, going back to like the small model thing, there was like a time in which the GPU poor were kind of like the rebel faction working on like these models that were like open and small and cheap. And I think today people don't really care as much about GPUs anymore.[00:38:37] Alessio: You also see it in the price of the GPUs. Like, you know, that market is kind of like plummeted because there's people don't want to be, they want to be GPU free. They don't even want to be poor. They just want to be, you know, completely without them. Yeah. How do you think about this war? You[00:38:52] swyx: can tell me about this, but like, I feel like the, the appetite for GPU rich startups, like the, you know, the, the funding plan is we will raise 60 million and [00:39:00] we'll give 50 of that to NVIDIA.[00:39:01] swyx: That is gone, right? Like, no one's, no one's pitching that. This was literally the plan, the exact plan of like, I can name like four or five startups, you know, this time last year. So yeah, GPU rich startups gone.[00:39:12] The Rise of GPU Ultra Rich[00:39:12] swyx: But I think like, The GPU ultra rich, the GPU ultra high net worth is still going. So, um, now we're, you know, we had Leopold's essay on the trillion dollar cluster.[00:39:23] swyx: We're not quite there yet. We have multiple labs, um, you know, XAI very famously, you know, Jensen Huang praising them for being. Best boy number one in spinning up 100, 000 GPU cluster in like 12 days or something. So likewise at Meta, likewise at OpenAI, likewise at the other labs as well. So like the GPU ultra rich are going to keep doing that because I think partially it's an article of faith now that you just need it.[00:39:46] swyx: Like you don't even know what it's going to, what you're going to use it for. You just, you just need it. And it makes sense that if, especially if we're going into. More researchy territory than we are. So let's say 2020 to 2023 was [00:40:00] let's scale big models territory because we had GPT 3 in 2020 and we were like, okay, we'll go from 1.[00:40:05] swyx: 75b to 1. 8b, 1. 8t. And that was GPT 3 to GPT 4. Okay, that's done. As far as everyone is concerned, Opus 3. 5 is not coming out, GPT 4. 5 is not coming out, and Gemini 2, we don't have Pro, whatever. We've hit that wall. Maybe I'll call it the 2 trillion perimeter wall. We're not going to 10 trillion. No one thinks it's a good idea, at least from training costs, from the amount of data, or at least the inference.[00:40:36] swyx: Would you pay 10x the price of GPT Probably not. Like, like you want something else that, that is at least more useful. So it makes sense that people are pivoting in terms of their inference paradigm.[00:40:47] Emerging Trends in AI Models[00:40:47] swyx: And so when it's more researchy, then you actually need more just general purpose compute to mess around with, uh, at the exact same time that production deployments of the old, the previous paradigm is still ramping up,[00:40:58] swyx: um,[00:40:58] swyx: uh, pretty aggressively.[00:40:59] swyx: So [00:41:00] it makes sense that the GPU rich are growing. We have now interviewed both together and fireworks and replicates. Uh, we haven't done any scale yet. But I think Amazon, maybe kind of a sleeper one, Amazon, in a sense of like they, at reInvent, I wasn't expecting them to do so well, but they are now a foundation model lab.[00:41:18] swyx: It's kind of interesting. Um, I think, uh, you know, David went over there and started just creating models.[00:41:25] Alessio: Yeah, I mean, that's the power of prepaid contracts. I think like a lot of AWS customers, you know, they do this big reserve instance contracts and now they got to use their money. That's why so many startups.[00:41:37] Alessio: Get bought through the AWS marketplace so they can kind of bundle them together and prefer pricing.[00:41:42] swyx: Okay, so maybe GPU super rich doing very well, GPU middle class dead, and then GPU[00:41:48] Alessio: poor. I mean, my thing is like, everybody should just be GPU rich. There shouldn't really be, even the GPU poorest, it's like, does it really make sense to be GPU poor?[00:41:57] Alessio: Like, if you're GPU poor, you should just use the [00:42:00] cloud. Yes, you know, and I think there might be a future once we kind of like figure out what the size and shape of these models is where like the tiny box and these things come to fruition where like you can be GPU poor at home. But I think today is like, why are you working so hard to like get these models to run on like very small clusters where it's like, It's so cheap to run them.[00:42:21] Alessio: Yeah, yeah,[00:42:22] swyx: yeah. I think mostly people think it's cool. People think it's a stepping stone to scaling up. So they aspire to be GPU rich one day and they're working on new methods. Like news research, like probably the most deep tech thing they've done this year is Distro or whatever the new name is.[00:42:38] swyx: There's a lot of interest in heterogeneous computing, distributed computing. I tend generally to de emphasize that historically, but it may be coming to a time where it is starting to be relevant. I don't know. You know, SF compute launched their compute marketplace this year, and like, who's really using that?[00:42:53] swyx: Like, it's a bunch of small clusters, disparate types of compute, and if you can make that [00:43:00] useful, then that will be very beneficial to the broader community, but maybe still not the source of frontier models. It's just going to be a second tier of compute that is unlocked for people, and that's fine. But yeah, I mean, I think this year, I would say a lot more on device, We are, I now have Apple intelligence on my phone.[00:43:19] swyx: Doesn't do anything apart from summarize my notifications. But still, not bad. Like, it's multi modal.[00:43:25] Alessio: Yeah, the notification summaries are so and so in my experience.[00:43:29] swyx: Yeah, but they add, they add juice to life. And then, um, Chrome Nano, uh, Gemini Nano is coming out in Chrome. Uh, they're still feature flagged, but you can, you can try it now if you, if you use the, uh, the alpha.[00:43:40] swyx: And so, like, I, I think, like, you know, We're getting the sort of GPU poor version of a lot of these things coming out, and I think it's like quite useful. Like Windows as well, rolling out RWKB in sort of every Windows department is super cool. And I think the last thing that I never put in this GPU poor war, that I think I should now, [00:44:00] is the number of startups that are GPU poor but still scaling very well, as sort of wrappers on top of either a foundation model lab, or GPU Cloud.[00:44:10] swyx: GPU Cloud, it would be Suno. Suno, Ramp has rated as one of the top ranked, fastest growing startups of the year. Um, I think the last public number is like zero to 20 million this year in ARR and Suno runs on Moto. So Suno itself is not GPU rich, but they're just doing the training on, on Moto, uh, who we've also talked to on, on the podcast.[00:44:31] swyx: The other one would be Bolt, straight cloud wrapper. And, and, um, Again, another, now they've announced 20 million ARR, which is another step up from our 8 million that we put on the title. So yeah, I mean, it's crazy that all these GPU pores are finding a way while the GPU riches are also finding a way. And then the only failures, I kind of call this the GPU smiling curve, where the edges do well, because you're either close to the machines, and you're like [00:45:00] number one on the machines, or you're like close to the customers, and you're number one on the customer side.[00:45:03] swyx: And the people who are in the middle. Inflection, um, character, didn't do that great. I think character did the best of all of them. Like, you have a note in here that we apparently said that character's price tag was[00:45:15] Alessio: 1B.[00:45:15] swyx: Did I say that?[00:45:16] Alessio: Yeah. You said Google should just buy them for 1B. I thought it was a crazy number.[00:45:20] Alessio: Then they paid 2. 7 billion. I mean, for like,[00:45:22] swyx: yeah.[00:45:22] Alessio: What do you pay for node? Like, I don't know what the game world was like. Maybe the starting price was 1B. I mean, whatever it was, it worked out for everybody involved.[00:45:31] The Multi-Modality War[00:45:31] Alessio: Multimodality war. And this one, we never had text to video in the first version, which now is the hottest.[00:45:37] swyx: Yeah, I would say it's a subset of image, but yes.[00:45:40] Alessio: Yeah, well, but I think at the time it wasn't really something people were doing, and now we had VO2 just came out yesterday. Uh, Sora was released last month, last week. I've not tried Sora, because the day that I tried, it wasn't, yeah. I[00:45:54] swyx: think it's generally available now, you can go to Sora.[00:45:56] swyx: com and try it. Yeah, they had[00:45:58] Alessio: the outage. Which I [00:46:00] think also played a part into it. Small things. Yeah. What's the other model that you posted today that was on Replicate? Video or OneLive?[00:46:08] swyx: Yeah. Very, very nondescript name, but it is from Minimax, which I think is a Chinese lab. The Chinese labs do surprisingly well at the video models.[00:46:20] swyx: I'm not sure it's actually Chinese. I don't know. Hold me up to that. Yep. China. It's good. Yeah, the Chinese love video. What can I say? They have a lot of training data for video. Or a more relaxed regulatory environment.[00:46:37] Alessio: Uh, well, sure, in some way. Yeah, I don't think there's much else there. I think like, you know, on the image side, I think it's still open.[00:46:45] Alessio: Yeah, I mean,[00:46:46] swyx: 11labs is now a unicorn. So basically, what is multi modality war? Multi modality war is, do you specialize in a single modality, right? Or do you have GodModel that does all the modalities? So this is [00:47:00] definitely still going, in a sense of 11 labs, you know, now Unicorn, PicoLabs doing well, they launched Pico 2.[00:47:06] swyx: 0 recently, HeyGen, I think has reached 100 million ARR, Assembly, I don't know, but they have billboards all over the place, so I assume they're doing very, very well. So these are all specialist models, specialist models and specialist startups. And then there's the big labs who are doing the sort of all in one play.[00:47:24] swyx: And then here I would highlight Gemini 2 for having native image output. Have you seen the demos? Um, yeah, it's, it's hard to keep up. Literally they launched this last week and a shout out to Paige Bailey, who came to the Latent Space event to demo on the day of launch. And she wasn't prepared. She was just like, I'm just going to show you.[00:47:43] swyx: So they have voice. They have, you know, obviously image input, and then they obviously can code gen and all that. But the new one that OpenAI and Meta both have but they haven't launched yet is image output. So you can literally, um, I think their demo video was that you put in an image of a [00:48:00] car, and you ask for minor modifications to that car.[00:48:02] swyx: They can generate you that modification exactly as you asked. So there's no need for the stable diffusion or comfy UI workflow of like mask here and then like infill there in paint there and all that, all that stuff. This is small model nonsense. Big model people are like, huh, we got you in as everything in the transformer.[00:48:21] swyx: This is the multimodality war, which is, do you, do you bet on the God model or do you string together a whole bunch of, uh, Small models like a, like a chump. Yeah,[00:48:29] Alessio: I don't know, man. Yeah, that would be interesting. I mean, obviously I use Midjourney for all of our thumbnails. Um, they've been doing a ton on the product, I would say.[00:48:38] Alessio: They launched a new Midjourney editor thing. They've been doing a ton. Because I think, yeah, the motto is kind of like, Maybe, you know, people say black forest, the black forest models are better than mid journey on a pixel by pixel basis. But I think when you put it, put it together, have you tried[00:48:53] swyx: the same problems on black forest?[00:48:55] Alessio: Yes. But the problem is just like, you know, on black forest, it generates one image. And then it's like, you got to [00:49:00] regenerate. You don't have all these like UI things. Like what I do, no, but it's like time issue, you know, it's like a mid[00:49:06] swyx: journey. Call the API four times.[00:49:08] Alessio: No, but then there's no like variate.[00:49:10] Alessio: Like the good thing about mid journey is like, you just go in there and you're cooking. There's a lot of stuff that just makes it really easy. And I think people underestimate that. Like, it's not really a skill issue, because I'm paying mid journey, so it's a Black Forest skill issue, because I'm not paying them, you know?[00:49:24] Alessio: Yeah,[00:49:25] swyx: so, okay, so, uh, this is a UX thing, right? Like, you, you, you understand that, at least, we think that Black Forest should be able to do all that stuff. I will also shout out, ReCraft has come out, uh, on top of the image arena that, uh, artificial analysis has done, has apparently, uh, Flux's place. Is this still true?[00:49:41] swyx: So, Artificial Analysis is now a company. I highlighted them I think in one of the early AI Newses of the year. And they have launched a whole bunch of arenas. So, they're trying to take on LM Arena, Anastasios and crew. And they have an image arena. Oh yeah, Recraft v3 is now beating Flux 1. 1. Which is very surprising [00:50:00] because Flux And Black Forest Labs are the old stable diffusion crew who left stability after, um, the management issues.[00:50:06] swyx: So Recurve has come from nowhere to be the top image model. Uh, very, very strange. I would also highlight that Grok has now launched Aurora, which is, it's very interesting dynamics between Grok and Black Forest Labs because Grok's images were originally launched, uh, in partnership with Black Forest Labs as a, as a thin wrapper.[00:50:24] swyx: And then Grok was like, no, we'll make our own. And so they've made their own. I don't know, there are no APIs or benchmarks about it. They just announced it. So yeah, that's the multi modality war. I would say that so far, the small model, the dedicated model people are winning, because they are just focused on their tasks.[00:50:42] swyx: But the big model, People are always catching up. And the moment I saw the Gemini 2 demo of image editing, where I can put in an image and just request it and it does, that's how AI should work. Not like a whole bunch of complicated steps. So it really is something. And I think one frontier that we haven't [00:51:00] seen this year, like obviously video has done very well, and it will continue to grow.[00:51:03] swyx: You know, we only have Sora Turbo today, but at some point we'll get full Sora. Oh, at least the Hollywood Labs will get Fulsora. We haven't seen video to audio, or video synced to audio. And so the researchers that I talked to are already starting to talk about that as the next frontier. But there's still maybe like five more years of video left to actually be Soda.[00:51:23] swyx: I would say that Gemini's approach Compared to OpenAI, Gemini seems, or DeepMind's approach to video seems a lot more fully fledged than OpenAI. Because if you look at the ICML recap that I published that so far nobody has listened to, um, that people have listened to it. It's just a different, definitely different audience.[00:51:43] swyx: It's only seven hours long. Why are people not listening? It's like everything in Uh, so, so DeepMind has, is working on Genie. They also launched Genie 2 and VideoPoet. So, like, they have maybe four years advantage on world modeling that OpenAI does not have. Because OpenAI basically only started [00:52:00] Diffusion Transformers last year, you know, when they hired, uh, Bill Peebles.[00:52:03] swyx: So, DeepMind has, has a bit of advantage here, I would say, in, in, in showing, like, the reason that VO2, while one, They cherry pick their videos. So obviously it looks better than Sora, but the reason I would believe that VO2, uh, when it's fully launched will do very well is because they have all this background work in video that they've done for years.[00:52:22] swyx: Like, like last year's NeurIPS, I already was interviewing some of their video people. I forget their model name, but for, for people who are dedicated fans, they can go to NeurIPS 2023 and see, see that paper.[00:52:32] Alessio: And then last but not least, the LLMOS. We renamed it to Ragops, formerly known as[00:52:39] swyx: Ragops War. I put the latest chart on the Braintrust episode.[00:52:43] swyx: I think I'm going to separate these essays from the episode notes. So the reason I used to do that, by the way, is because I wanted to show up on Hacker News. I wanted the podcast to show up on Hacker News. So I always put an essay inside of there because Hacker News people like to read and not listen.[00:52:58] Alessio: So episode essays,[00:52:59] swyx: I remember [00:53:00] purchasing them separately. You say Lanchain Llama Index is still growing.[00:53:03] Alessio: Yeah, so I looked at the PyPy stats, you know. I don't care about stars. On PyPy you see Do you want to share your screen? Yes. I prefer to look at actual downloads, not at stars on GitHub. So if you look at, you know, Lanchain still growing.[00:53:20] Alessio: These are the last six months. Llama Index still growing. What I've basically seen is like things that, One, obviously these things have A commercial product. So there's like people buying this and sticking with it versus kind of hopping in between things versus, you know, for example, crew AI, not really growing as much.[00:53:38] Alessio: The stars are growing. If you look on GitHub, like the stars are growing, but kind of like the usage is kind of like flat. In the last six months, have they done some[00:53:4

Links For The Occult Rejects and The Spiritual Gangsters https://linktr.ee/occultrejectsandfriendsOccult Research Institutehttps://www.occultresearchinstitute.org/Links For The Spiritual Gangstershttps://linktr.ee/thespiritualgangsterspodcastCash Apphttps://cash.app/$theoccultrejectsVenmo@TheOccultRejectsBuy Me A Coffeebuymeacoffee.com/TheOccultRejectsPatreonhttps://www.patreon.com/TheOccultRejectsAbcedarian Ma'athttps://linktr.ee/abcedarianhttps://www.patreon.com/posts/61141974

On this auspicious Mrgaśīrsha Pūrnimā (full moon) to which is ascribed Bhairavi Jayanti, Annapurna Jayanti and also Dattatreya Jayanti, we decide to say a few words about just who Mā Bhairavi might be. She is one of the most mysterious of the mahāvidyās (the ten terrifying forms of Mā). In this video, referring to the meditation mantra below, I make the case that Bhairavi is a euhemerized Tantrik adept! We of course discuss Bhairavi Brāhmani, Sri Ramakrishna's Tantrik guru and we spend the first half of the talk discussing what makes Tantra, Tantra in order to clearly indicate the path upon which we ourselves must trod to become a Bhairavi/Bhairava! उद्यद्भानुसहस्रकान्तिमरुणक्षौमां शिरोमालिकांरक्तालिप्तपयोधरां जपवटीं विद्यामभीतिं वरम् ।हस्ताब्जैदधतीं त्रिनेत्रविलसद्रक्तारविन्दश्रियंदेवीं बद्धहिमांशुरक्तमुकुटां वन्दे समन्दस्मिताम् ॥udyad-bhānu-sahasra-kāntim-aruṇa-kṣaumāṃ śiro-mālikāṃraktā-lipta-payodharāṃ japa-vaṭīṃ vidyām-abhītiṃ varam .hastābjaidadhatīṃ trinetra-vilasad-raktāravinda-śriyaṃdevīṃ baddha-himāṃśu-rakta-mukuṭāṃ vande samandasmitāmRadiant like the splendour of a thousand suns, clad in red garments, garlanded in headsBreasts smeared with blood, holding a rosary and a book, assuring fearlessness and granting boons With her lotus like hands, Her third eye shining with the beauty of blood-red lotus flowers,She is the Goddess who wears a red crown in which is tucked the moon- I worship Her who is smiling gently!For more detailed instructions for how to perform Kālī pūjā, watch this playlist: https://www.patreon.com/collection/233799Lectures happen live every Monday at 7pm PST and Friday 10am PST and again Friday at 6pm PST.Use this link and I will see you there:https://www.zoom.us/j/7028380815For more videos, guided meditations and instruction and for access to our lecture library, visit me at:https://www.patreon.com/yogawithnishTo get in on the discussion and access various spiritual materials, join our Discord here: https://discord.gg/U8zKP8yMrMSupport the show

CLIMATE COMMON SENSE: 3/4: Adapt and Be Adept: Market Responses to Climate Change by Terry Anderson (Editor) https://www.amazon.com/Adapt-Be-Adept-Responses-Climate/dp/0817924558/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&qid=1618603521&refinements=p_27%3ATerry+Anderson&s=books&sr=1-1 How can markets help us adapt to the challenges of climate change? The editor Terry L. Anderson brings together this collection of essays featuring the work of nine leading policy analysts, who argue that market forces are just as important as government regulation in shaping climate policy—and should be at the heart of our response to helping societies adapt to climate change. Anderson notes in his introduction that most current climate policies such as the Paris Agreement require hard-to-enforce collective action and focus on reducing or mitigating greenhouse gases rather than adapting to their negative effects. Adaptive actions can typically deliver much more, faster and more cheaply than any realistic climate policy. The authors tackle a range of issues: the hidden costs of renewable energy sources, the political obstacles surrounding climate change policy, insurance and financial instruments for pricing risk of exposure to the effects of climate change, and more Terry Anderson @HooverInst https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/547525-a-better-approach-to-climate-change-for-stateshttps://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/547764-the-urge-to-complicate-and-climatize-trade-policy?rl=1 https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/548667-climate-change-to-adapt-is-to-be-human1940 NACA

CLIMATE COMMON SENSE: 4/4: Adapt and Be Adept: Market Responses to Climate Change by Terry Anderson (Editor) https://www.amazon.com/Adapt-Be-Adept-Responses-Climate/dp/0817924558/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&qid=1618603521&refinements=p_27%3ATerry+Anderson&s=books&sr=1-1 How can markets help us adapt to the challenges of climate change? The editor Terry L. Anderson brings together this collection of essays featuring the work of nine leading policy analysts, who argue that market forces are just as important as government regulation in shaping climate policy—and should be at the heart of our response to helping societies adapt to climate change. Anderson notes in his introduction that most current climate policies such as the Paris Agreement require hard-to-enforce collective action and focus on reducing or mitigating greenhouse gases rather than adapting to their negative effects. Adaptive actions can typically deliver much more, faster and more cheaply than any realistic climate policy. The authors tackle a range of issues: the hidden costs of renewable energy sources, the political obstacles surrounding climate change policy, insurance and financial instruments for pricing risk of exposure to the effects of climate change, and more Terry Anderson @HooverInst https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/547525-a-better-approach-to-climate-change-for-stateshttps://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/547764-the-urge-to-complicate-and-climatize-trade-policy?rl=1 https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/548667-climate-change-to-adapt-is-to-be-human2011 PYRAMID EGYPT

CLIMATE COMMON SENSE: 2/4: Adapt and Be Adept: Market Responses to Climate Change by Terry Anderson (Editor) https://www.amazon.com/Adapt-Be-Adept-Responses-Climate/dp/0817924558/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&qid=1618603521&refinements=p_27%3ATerry+Anderson&s=books&sr=1-1 How can markets help us adapt to the challenges of climate change? The editor Terry L. Anderson brings together this collection of essays featuring the work of nine leading policy analysts, who argue that market forces are just as important as government regulation in shaping climate policy—and should be at the heart of our response to helping societies adapt to climate change. Anderson notes in his introduction that most current climate policies such as the Paris Agreement require hard-to-enforce collective action and focus on reducing or mitigating greenhouse gases rather than adapting to their negative effects. Adaptive actions can typically deliver much more, faster and more cheaply than any realistic climate policy. The authors tackle a range of issues: the hidden costs of renewable energy sources, the political obstacles surrounding climate change policy, insurance and financial instruments for pricing risk of exposure to the effects of climate change, and more Terry Anderson @HooverInst https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/547525-a-better-approach-to-climate-change-for-stateshttps://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/547764-the-urge-to-complicate-and-climatize-trade-policy?rl=1 https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/548667-climate-change-to-adapt-is-to-be-human 1920 FRANCE

CLIMATE COMMON SENSE: 1/4: Adapt and Be Adept: Market Responses to Climate Change by Terry Anderson (Editor) https://www.amazon.com/Adapt-Be-Adept-Responses-Climate/dp/0817924558/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&qid=1618603521&refinements=p_27%3ATerry+Anderson&s=books&sr=1-1 How can markets help us adapt to the challenges of climate change? The editor Terry L. Anderson brings together this collection of essays featuring the work of nine leading policy analysts, who argue that market forces are just as important as government regulation in shaping climate policy—and should be at the heart of our response to helping societies adapt to climate change. Anderson notes in his introduction that most current climate policies such as the Paris Agreement require hard-to-enforce collective action and focus on reducing or mitigating greenhouse gases rather than adapting to their negative effects. Adaptive actions can typically deliver much more, faster and more cheaply than any realistic climate policy. The authors tackle a range of issues: the hidden costs of renewable energy sources, the political obstacles surrounding climate change policy, insurance and financial instruments for pricing risk of exposure to the effects of climate change, and more Terry Anderson @HooverInst https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/547525-a-better-approach-to-climate-change-for-stateshttps://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/547764-the-urge-to-complicate-and-climatize-trade-policy?rl=1 https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/548667-climate-change-to-adapt-is-to-be-human 1940 BUCHAREST

PREVIEW: WILDFIRES: CLIMATE: Conversation with colleague Terry Anderson of Hoover Institution, author of "Adapt and Be Adept," regarding how to prepare for climate change events, including precautions for living in forests during wildfire season out West. More later. 1901 Clark County Nevada