Breakaway

OpeningGolfPGA Championship at Quail Hollow. 156 players. Top 70 make cut. Qualification CriteriaCalifornia Budget$12 billion budget deficit.  Newsom is proposing to close the deficit by rolling back state-funded insurance coverage for adults without legal immigration status, cutting coverage for weight loss drugs like OzempicCalifornia: 13.3%Hawaii: 11.0%New York: 10.9%New Jersey: 10.75%Oregon: 9.9%Investing$1000 to every kid. Home Alarm: $45/ monthMarketsTariffsTariff Game Theory: China has to blink because everyday that passes every company is studying and implementing supply chain changes.  So much panic in last month or so.  Now Flat year to dateIf investing on April 7.   You are up 17% and 29% Downturns is when you make money!!! NetflixAll time high: $1182. Up 29% YTD. $500 billion market cap.   Netflix said on Wednesday 94 million subscribers use its advertising-supported tier.BuffetBecoming old. 94 years old. Legend. I'm still pissed he didn't buy Tesla.  CoinbaseRansomTurning it around. Will pay $20m reward to help find attackers!!! Tesla Stilll planning to go live with Robo-taxi in Austin in June. Shares could explode.   $345 today. $480 ATH.    If you bought Tesla 10 years ago. You're up 20x. 35-36% annualized returns.Robots dancing shown to Crown Prince and President Trump in Saudi. Talk in Saudi: Robots and wanting your own C3P0 or R2-D2 and productivity unlock. Universal “High Income”. How are we doing on Robotaxis. Robots on wheels. Bringing robotaxi to the Kingdom.Apple ATH $258. Now at $211. Was $172WHat is a buy-back?More of Eddy Cue testimony here. Alphabet/ GoogleSearch is dead. Cloud, Youtube, Google  Biz suite alive and well.DOGEBig BallsThese kids are so hard core. No weekends. They know they're racing against a media and political clock that won't thank them for their service.Requiring receipts: "They were basically partying on taxpayer money." Recommendations:Friends and NeighborsTheo Von with David Spade. Listening to Ben Affleck.

OpeningGolfJustin Thomas on improving putting.MarketsGoogleEarnings on April 24, 2025MicrosoftRevenue up 13% and Operating income up 16%. MetaRevenue up 16% YoY and operating income up 27%!3.4 billion unique users they estimate. Investment thesis: Instagram and Reels. WhatsAppAIPhysical glassesPlay at 2:05. Morning routine. Dropping F-bomb! Socially awkward. “I'm really smooth!”  Does wonders for confidence!!  

MarketsMarkets are volatile, but its very important to keep things in perspective.S&P 500 16% off all time high.  5 and 10 year annualized returns of 15% and 11%. CAPE Ratio still high at 33. Tesla“The reality is, in the future, most people are not going to buy cars.”  Letter and FinancialsFSD Supervised ride-hailing service is live for an early set of employees in Austin & San FranciscoModel Y best selling car on Earth. 2 years in row. Transition lines in all factories (Fremont, Austin, Shanghai, Berlin) in ~6-8 weeksWorld leader in real-world AI. Unsupervised self-driving will dominate the US. Leader in manufacturing. No other EV biz in US makes money and even ICE divisions will struggle with tariffsTesla stressed their focus on localizing supply chainThey will “turn-on” Austin, then other cities push-buttonMillions of cars driving autonomously mid to late next yearOptimusChina: Optimus Humanoid Robot will be #1 with China in spots 2-10Investor Call here on YouTubeWill spend less time at DOGEPlay 12:12: future of company is based on large scale autonomous cars and robots. At scale at low cost. Value is staggering. Believes Tesla will be most valuable company in world by far. More than next 5 combined. (so $15 trillion?). Play at 20:20. 1000's of Optimus robots working if factories by end of this year. Will scale faster than any product in history. Million units/yr in 4-5 years. 2030 1 million per year (maybe 2029).Play at 35:40 . Model Y's on track for paid rides in Austin in June. Many other cities by end of year. S-curve. Robotaxi's operating at scale in millions by 2H 2026.Play at 40:16. Many days without knowing if improvement is happening. 10,000 miles/ intervention. Teslas driving everywhere in Austin. Average person drives 10,000 miles/ year. Play at 47:18.  “Waymo money”. Tesla costs 20% less. Doesn't see anyone competing with Tesla at present. Tesla will have 99% or 90% something market share! Millions of cars deployed. Risk: Regulatory risk. In a few years will have 10m cars on road. Play at 1:01.30. We make also make our own cells! Tesla is the most competitive battery.Play at 1:11.58. Why are people still buying other car, like BMW's. This is an Iphone moment.Elon: “Reality is most people won't buy cars in future”.  Flip phone analogy. Not perfect, but not bad. Elon: “Buying a gasoline car is like riding a horse. People still do it, but rare.”Play at 1:30.25. Who is ahead in Drones and AI? Vassal state. 100% of drones have a reliance on China. “China is amazing!”. Humanoid robots. No company in world that can match Tesla. Concerned that #'s 2-10 are Chinese companies.Conclusion:Buy the future

OpeningAppreciation for life and feeling good.Punta Mita. W. Golf Masters: Rory completed a career grand slam.Men's Golf Career Grand Slam WinnersJeff Bezos Blue Origin sends women to spaceMarketsPeople are freaking, but is it that bad? NO!!NetflixWas at a $1058. After market $10063 years ago in June was $170!!!  Almost a 6x return!!!Revenue up 12.5% YoY. I like at least 10%. Greg says will double Ad-tier revenue in 2025 (big statement). Price targets:Wedbush $1150JP $1025Morgan Stanley $1150Tesla$776b market cap. $240 stock price. Was $428. Biggest news coming is Cybercab in June in Austin…just wait.  Sales:Tesla's Market Leadership:Tesla sold approximately 128,100 EVs in the U.S. during Q1 2025, outperforming the combined sales of the next 10 EV brands. Teslas Super Charger in LA. Two 45 ft screens.Giga Texas production now uses FSD Unsupervised to deliver cars from end of line to the outbound logistics lot. Over 50,000 driverless miles have been accrued between California and Texas factories so far.NEWS: Five years after debuting Indiana's first @Tesla police car, the Bargersville Police Department says it has saved them nearly $500,000 in maintenance and repairs.Joe Rogan now tweeting about Tesla: I had my Tesla model S drive me home the other day with FSD, and it's fucking wild. Changes lanes to avoid slow traffic, stops at red lights and stop signs, hits the blinkers and turns for you. It's bananas.My FSD works great!!!NvidiaBlog on $500b investment and building in ArizonaWalmart & Amazon - Drone DeliveryUniversitiesColumbia University:With an endowment of $14.8 billionHarvard University:With an endowment of $53 billion.Govt Govt TransparencyThe Washington Times claimed that Trump's nearly 100 questions answered in three 2025 cabinet meetings is nearly 20 times the number answered by Biden during cabinet meetings over his entire four-year termDOGE24.5k people over 115 years old claimed $59M in benefits28k people between 1 and 5 years old claimed $254M in benefits9.7k people with birth dates over 15 years in the future claimed RecommendationsBrecka on Joe Rogan: Den of Thieves on Netflix. White LotusPlay guitar! 

OpeningHappy b-day to wife and her mom! Tiger Dating Vanessa. Cialis. 2.5mg per day for longevity from Bryon Trump, Kid Rock, Dana White and Bill Maher have dinner. MarketsFull Correction Territory (down 10%); quickly moving to “Bear” down 15%. S&P 17%, Tech 25%+Apple in huge correction. PE still at 30Netflix at 43. TariffsNo income tax in the US income tax until 1913. Tariff rates: The U.S. charged less than most big players—think 2-5% versus 5-15% from others.Trade Deficit 2024 was $918.4 billion.Total US spending deficit: $1.8 trillion in 2024 per FRED. Spend $6t and take in $4t. Total US Debt. $36 trillion.Interest expense is $1t growingRay Dalio on the significance and problem of debt.Antonio Gracias on SS and Medicaid Fraud. NetflixAdolescenceSpaceX turns out it was harrowing story simply docking the Starliner. X & XaiElon announcement hereCNBC interview with Rich Greenfield. . WSJ Article here. RoboticsNew Figure Video released.Tesla now taking deliveries for Optimus. Official post from Tesla that autonomous robotaxi starting in Austin in JuneTeslaTesla worst delivery numbers in years. Norway registered more cars in March that ever.Made in the USAKey Elements of RICO ChargesGovernment inefficiencyFix Regulation and be more efficientHere is video of Ezra Klein discussing with Jon Stewart why $44b of broadband connected zero homes in 4 years. Social Security:Antonio Gracias:!  SS fake #'s and spendingsWho is screaming the loudest. The Fraudsters.  Video from Jason C. https://x.com/Jason/status/1906730493216780699 DogeGoal is to reduce spending by $1b or 15%.  Entire Doge Interview with Brett Baier.  Survey at 1:10. $1b. $830m online survey.  1700 different IT systems. 17 CIO's. Social Security Fraud. 

OpeningJordan Peterson. Ride or DieGrok vs GoogleGolfCalifornia BusinessMarketsS&P 8% off highs. Was 10% 1 week ago. So that was a correction Tesla 52%. Nvidia, Meta: 20%. Apple: 18%.Finance EducationSecurity. Digital Hygiene:  Great from Karpathy 2-factor authentication and strong password for financial websites. YubiKey. 1PasswordIRA Contributions401k Max: 2025: $23,500 + Employer Match + After-tax = $70,000Still can do $7000 in IRA.Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and All-inFull Interview on X here.PalantirDOGEWebsite is GREAT!! www.doge.gov I had to google “Timor-Leste”Elon on what DOGE is finding.DOGE's spending cuts are ramping up so quickly that United Airlines announced government travel is down a MASSIVE -50%NetflixCNBC video here. MoffetNathanson Upgrades Netflix to $1100. “Netflix has won the streaming wars.Case closed”Nvidia Jensen Huang KeyNote at GTC 2025Nvidia working on driverless vehicle with GM!!   Video post here.Blue the robot. Robots are coming!!SpaceX Tesla$480. Now $230. Sow down 52%. So increase 1.1x or 110% to get back. Play at 0:30. Winner take most by Cathie Wood. $8-10 trillion in Revenue in 2030. ½ to platforms, like Tesla. Which is the biggest AI platform in the world.Dragon crew launch to ISS.Carried a russian cosmo.Stuck no More! WSJ 285 days in space. 9 months. No other US company can do this. 400th landing of Falcon 9 booster.  Will launch to Mars and carry Optimus. Crossover.Per Elon, SpaceX carries 95% of payload to orbit.Starship is the only “vehicle” currently built that can go to Mars. Boston Dynamics Robot - Break dancing. Yes its here. BYD. Sheer size of Shenzhen factory. University EndowmentsTrump threatening to suspend federal grants to Columbia University per WSJ.Play  Andreeson on University funding. RecommendationsAll-In Podcast. Chamath and Friedberg interviewing Secretary of Treasury Scott DictatorsWhite LotusElon Interview on Ted Cruz

OpeningThe MOUSE!College world tourGolf Players Championship. TPC Sawgrass.  All tree talk.  Most seem to be using 3 wood.  Morikawa hit Driver. Tree is ~90-100 yds in front and 10 ft clearance? MarketsHang on tight. Its gonna be a bumpy ride. Big bounce today.  We are in “Correction” territory. Down 10%. Every 2 years. Finance EducationRule of 10 best days. 2024 up 24%. Excluding 10 best days. Only up 4%DOLLAR COST AVERAGE. AppleTrading around $210. Was $260. Down 20%. Still has high PE 28-30 (depending on current or forward)Apple subtle announcement; made huge waves! Daring Fireball by Jon Gruber.  Something is rotten in the state of cupertino. TeslaMonday this week.  $260-$220 in 1 day. 15% down!  Largest single day drops in history.Largest single-day drops in $TSLA history (adjusted for splits):9/8/2020 21.1%, to $110.071/13/2012 19.1%, to $1.523/16/2020 18.6%, to $29.672/5/2020 17.2%, to $48.987/6/2010 16.4%, $1.073/18/2020 16.0%, to $24.083/10/2025 15.4%, to $222.1512/27/2010 15.4%, to $1.70 Ron Baron: Ron Baron on Tesla sales down because they're not building…they're in “refresh” mode for Model Y. Ron on Robotaxi futureMorgan Stanley says could go to $800 in next 12 months. NEWS: Tesla is reportedly working with Chinese tech giant Baidu to improve FSD performance in China. Most Dems won't sell their Tesla's or Boycott the best car in world. Now Republicans are Buying! 1 year from now, this will all be forgotten.  AIAnthropic CEO Dario Amodei on AI executing 90% of coding and 100% in next 12 months. Claude 3.7 SonnetDOGE:Is this really Obama talking about the Fiddling Farmers. Chuck Schumer 2010: we have to eliminate the waste, fraud and abuse from Medicare.https://www.doge.gov/savings$115b in savings. Recommendations:Rambo Last Blood. BAck in Action: Movie on Netflix with Cameron Diaz and Jaime FoxAmerican Primeval. Peter BergDictators Podcast. PinochetDisney: Tim Dilon on Snow White. 

Opening FunA&M, TCU, Miami, Tennessee, Clemson529 plansJensen Huang on the importance of working with AI  link. Snoop Dog riffing on Thanking HimselfSaturday Night Live -  CouplaBeers SpaceX. Starship Booster caught for 3rd timeWSJ Headline: SpaceX Again Loses Spacecraft During Latest Starship Test FlightMarkets:Tech down 12%, S&P 500 down 5.5%.  Tesla down 45%. This means up 82% to back to normal. That's huge!! Wait till Robotaxi.Crypto: Fortknox for digital gold: BitcoinTesla$550 price target by Wedbush.40 minute uninterrupted drive in Schenzen. China TechXiaomi. Apple of China. From WSJ: The Chinese EV Maker Threatening Ford and GMChina AIRobots Robotsguide.comFigureFigure's focus on general-purpose humanoid robots aligns with the podcast's tech-forward audience, and their recent moves—like a $675 million funding round in 2024 with backing from OpenAI and NVIDIA1x.techChina RobotsXiaomi.  Unitree RoboticsUBTECH RoboticsAgibot (Zhiyuan Robot)LimX DynamicsEX RobotsElon on Optimus manufacturing. Will produce several 1000 Optimus robots for factory use.PoliticsTrumps list of money not well spent:The transparency is great! Discussion in White house with Zelensky, Trump and VanceWOW!!!! KEY POINT is we see what's going on!!!!Full interview here. 22 Dems echoing the same script. Funny take by Stephen A Smith. Newsome with Charlie Kirk. Play here at 0:30DOGECommerce Secretary Howard Lutnick just announced plans to use the Postal Service to conduct the Census instead of wasting billions. Recommendations:Rogan and ElonRogan and Bill Murray

CollegesCabo to college: A&M, TCU Stockyard. Miami, Tennessee, ClemsonEmbrace AI!!  Particularly younger professionals!  Elon on Doge: Says he is “Tech Support”.Markets Markets correcting. S&P 500 down 3% last few days. Still up 2% YTD and 18% 1 year.   Starbucks laying 1000 offApple to invest $500 billion in US. NVIDIA earnings tonight. Its like a superbowl event. Foreign companies. 21:30 min on The Compound and Friends: Brian Belsky on foreign investments. Bezos announcement around WaPo:I'm writing to let you know about a change coming to our opinion pages. We are going to be writing every day in support and defense of two pillars: personal liberties and free markets.Buffet Letter: Long-Term Optimism: Despite market frothiness (he calls it "casino-like" elsewhere), Buffett remains bullish on America's economic tailwind. He sees stocks as the best bet over bonds or cash long-term.Margin LoansAmazon and AIAndy Jassy on Alexa+.Grok 3.Tesla and XAIDown ~40%. Tesla (TSLA) new car registrations fell 45.2% year over year to 9,945 in January in the European Union, European Free Trade Association, and UK, the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association said Tuesday.People are waiting for Model Y ramp. Wow #FSDChinaWho will build Robots for US Govt? U.S. based humanoid robot startup @1x_tech has unveiled their next-gen robot, NEO Gamma. Improvements: NEO can now walk with a natural human gait and arm swings.XpengAll-in on Elon setting up xAI data center. Pro Nvidia. Elon moving fast. Generators. Liquid cooling. Power problem. Rewriting firmware. Elon on XAI data center build. DOGE Elon on Doge: Says he is “Tech Support”.  Comment on Email: People that are dead or fictional. DOGE website. List 5 things you accomplished this week. Jaime Dimon on DOGE initiative. Software subscriptions not being used! Social Security: Amazing Puzzle!

InspirationSnow.Mentors: Tom Caulfield. Tim Archer. Reed Hastings. Chuck Landers and Jack Wilborn. Golf: Girl attached by Shark. No arm and leg, now golfing. Lulu Gibbins Joins Justin Thomas and Ricky Fowler. Tom Brady on attitude. Focus on “you” not “others”. Back to the office per Jamie Dimon. MarketsS&P500: Reached all time high again today. Up 25% in 1 yr. 95% 3 yrs (so 2x your money).  Hims!!! $60. Up 150% YTD. What!!?? Netflix. New high $1057. $450b mkt capMeta: new high today at $740. $1.8t mkt capUp every day for 20 straight days!! MIght be a record. Palantir: new high today. $120OtherBridgeloan Financing. 401k quick education. $23,500 pre-tax. Then After-tax. Invest in 529's. DogeOld video from Bill Clinton and Barack on government inefficiency. Why important. Deficit spending causes inflation! Elon explaining. Doge Website: Will stop making pennies. Costs nearly $0.04 to make.  Antonio Gracias on how Treasury does not reconcile payments (3-way match).Our government Needs to pass audits!! David Sacks on “Getting Paid”.  Funding from USAID.Elon on Treasury payments. $50b estimated fraud. No SS#'s. Elon Musk says that there is a literal limestone mine where they store all the US Government's retirement paperwork built in 1950 that they need to go up and down every time they want to retire someone from Federal Government. Autonomous Driving BYD has unveiled an advanced driver-assist system called "God's Eye" that it plans to install on its entire model line-up including its $9,600 Seagull hatchback. "BYD wants to democratize self-driving tech. TeslaTrump and tariffs. Don't F with Tesla in China. EV Tax credits hurt other EV's more than Tesla.  RecommendationsMust listen to last All In Podcast. Phil on Golf Club Selection:Phil Mickelson talking about the process that goes into selecting a club never gets old to listen to.Sahil Bloom - 5 types of wealth 

OpeningRainGuitar: W - W - H - W - W - W - H. C major all full notes, no minor or sharp. D has two sharps. So pachobel in D has C# and F#MarketsNetflix: $1008 ($1011). $500b. Up 80% over last yearAmazon: $237 today (was $242). $2.5t. Up ~40% in last year.Slides. Meta: $712 today!!   $1.8t. Up 54% over last yearPalantir: $107. $245b. Up 500% over last yearRevenue up 52% YoY. That's huge! Alex Karp on Earnings at 31:25 500 people job can be done with 3.HIMS: Up 60% in last month. Up 393% over last year. Hair and ED! Spotify: Stock $620. $125b. Up 34% last month. 180% in 1 year. TeslaFord  on Autonomy Tesla Bot jobs listingFATMAANN: Up 215% in 3 years. S&P500 36%Here's the thing about investing: you may think you've missed the 10000% growth. And you may have, but there is still opportunity to identify amazing opportunities. NVIDIA. Palantir. I bought late. But still works! I'll take 20%+ gains a year. That's double your money in 4 years! Tariffs:Inflationary by nature?If monetary supply is fixed how can it be inflationary. Money will shift to other purchases or sources. Milton Friedman on inflationOil Exports from Canada. - Agree or disagree will learn something. 97% of Canada oil export is to US. US purcaThey can't refine it. Its “Raw”. Super sour. 49.43. Bill on Tariffs for negotiation. DOGEBudget deficit ~$2 trillion in 2024.Debt has increased. $10t in 2008, prior to GFC. Now 36t. 15% of budget is INTEREST. Sunshine is the best disinfectant! We need  absolute transparency. DOGE Website:https://dogegov.com/Milton Friedman on DOGE.. again! DOGE and USAID (US Agency for International Development). Website here: Spends $50b per year on foreign aid.All spending by Govt should be line item. Headline: Elon shutting down USAIDNo. He is a hired (non-paid) consultant. No different than Mckinsy, BCG, etc… and all politicians and organizations use them. Trump clearly said all decisions are his! Findings: I $8m (updated to $34m to Politico thru USAID)Numerous invoices posted. Receipts showing ~$35k per subscription. I pay $500 or so for WSJ. Access to Treasury PaymentsLimited read-only per WSJ. Let's see the Epstien Island list!!  In short: Let's give all this some time and wait and see.   

OpeningI need them to ask "Do you have the aircraft 4 miles off of your 2 o'clock, 300ft above you.I took Flying lessons…its like learning a foreign language. MarketsRocky week: NVIDIA largest mkt cap loss ever in 1 day. ~$600bDeepSeek fear!   Fed decision on interest rates. Stay and hold. MicrosoftMicrosoft's earnings for the second quarter of fiscal year 2025 were $24.1 billion in net income and $69.6 billion in revenue. AppleApple per WSJ. Apple's total revenue was $124.3 billion, rising almost 4% from the same quarter last year. Net income was $36.3 billion, up more than 7% from the prior year. Iphone sales down, but service continues to grow. Meta Record Revenue and Net income: $48b and $21b. Record high stock price: $702, or $1.8t mkt capStart: 12:50.3.3b people using at least 1 app everyday. TeslaRecord deliveries and revenue. But Auto revenue down, but offset by Energy and Services. Elon's opening remarks. Start 7:10. Model Y best selling vehicle on Earth in 2024. 4 in US. F-series, Silverado, RAVAsked random people and they thought ToyotaAutonomy is 10x'ingTesla more valuable than several times next 5 companies combined. Difficult but achievable. Well over $15 trillion. So > 10x increase. Ridiculous 2027 & 2028.

OpenChiefs vs EaglesInaugurationCarrie Underwood! A cappella Elon on planting Flag on Mars: Mark at 1:30Tech heavy weights in attendance per WSJ.Exec orders: my favorite: Everything will be revealed," Trump said while signing. Give the pen to RFK Jr. What about Epstein and Diddy?!?! MarketsMarkets Up 3% YTD. That's great 30 days in.NVIDIA down 17% on pressure the Chinese AI company DeepSeek.Congressional Trading: Insider trading by Congress from AOC Play at 0:15 min. Here are the top political traders of 2024. 25 congressmen beat the markets. 6 people at or over 100%.  NetflixHuge flywheel of momentum! Stock close to $1000!!Bernstein hikes to $1200. Rosenblaut $1500Absolute RECORD number of subs!! 19m subs…biggest quarter EVER! 301m membersMore subs in US now than Cable. 80-90m vs 70m. Investor LetterBig hits: Squid Game, Carry-on. And live: Jake Paul & Tyson and NFL. 2025: Stranger Things, Wednesday, Squid Game…  Happy Gilmore 2 ?!! More sports.Spending more on content $16b+ than Market cap of paramount ($7.3b and WB $25b)From WSJAds: From Greg PetersQ4 was 55% signups with ads. Barely monetized!! Engagement is healthy with ads. Goal is to make offering better for advertising. Doubled ads revenue in 2024. Expect to double again in 2025! Using own ad server and tech stack! Enhanced targeting. Better measurement. Better relevance to users and advertisers.DOGEShouldn't be bi-partisan. Argentina is now in a budget surplus! Eliminated 100's of regulations. Jaime Dimon on DogeTrump signed an Executive Order directing all federal employees to return to full time in person work.6% of federal workers go to office? A report from the Government Accountability Office (GAO) found that during early 2023, 17 out of 24 federal agency headquarters buildings in Washington, D.C., were operating at 25% capacity or less. DOGE $784 MILLION in taxpayer dollars for a new U.S. embassy in South Sudan, initiated in 2023. This is not a reasonable expenditure.Project StargateProject Stargate is a $500 billion investment aimed at building AI infrastructure across the United States.Oracle CEO, Larry Ellison on Cancer detection

Markets:Fed Funds rate lowered from 5.0% to 4.5%, but mortgage went from 6% to 7%. Why. Mortgage rates are tied closer 10 year bonds. And with market uncertainty, people buy bonds: Example: $100 bond pays 5%.Demand drives bond to $98; so implied rate is 7%.S&P 500: ~33% is Mag 7RSP Equal weight. Some correction is healthy.  California FiresFirefighters continue attempts to gain control of almost 40,000 acres of ongoing wildfires, which have killed at least 27 people and destroyed more than 12,300 structures. See maps of the fire areas and evacuation zones.The Palisades Fire is 31% contained, and the Eaton Fire is 65% contained.CA FAIR is insurer of last resort. But they only have $200m in cash and $2.5b in reserves. A rule change in CA, requires those providing insurance to cover short-fall, which they will do by subsequently raising insurance for ALL CA residents. Already hard to get insurance. State Farm, Allstate = NO. Govt Regulation and CostFrom Chamath: A tale of incompetence, grift and corruption…Governor Gavin Newsom released his proposed 2024-25 California state budget on January 10, projecting a $38 billion shortfallBased on the available data, in 2021, the top 1% of earners in California contributed approximately 49.9% of the state's personal income tax revenue. Janisse Quiñones, who makes $750k a year,.Here's a public list of all salaries. Other Regulation Marc Andreessen on China's manufacturing dominance Marc Andreessen says America is primed for a new golden age. "We have the people, we have the resources. We have geographic security. We have all of these capabilities."We continue to be the beacon of capitalism and enterprise and entrepreneurship. Here's another one from Alex KarpMeta$1.5t, $655 and up 67% YoY. Zuck on RoganTikTok set to go dark on SundayRocket Ships:Starships 7th flight test. The landing burn slowed Super Heavy down and maneuvered itself to the launch and catch tower arms, resulting in the second successful catch of a Super Heavy booster.Blue Origin: New Glenn made it, but didn't successfully land the booster. 

2025:Success stories pretty reliably happen for people who combine: solid talent, savvy business sense, 15-20 years of persistent hard work.Goals: Health, Family and Wealth. Bryson Deshambeu: 7 hours for hole in 1. $100k. Fires:9000 homes and counting.Video of homes destroyed. The California FAIR Plan (Fair Access to Insurance Requirements Plan)Markets:Big pull back. WSJ Jobs report good, so interest rate cut less likely. @unusual_whales Here are the top political traders of 2024. Markets up 25%. 25 congress people beat the markets. 6 people at or over 100%.  MetaDana White joins the Board of Directors.Freezing 3rd party fact checking. Play Mark Zuckerberg video about why? Eagerness to work with Trump.Also on board: CEO of Broadcom. Up 100% in last year. $1t company. #10 or so. Marc AndreesonAutonomous driving and Robots:WSJ - Uber and Lyft Gear Up For the Revolution in Driverless TaxisTravis Kalinick said “Elon has it covered”Tesla videos of self-parking. Jim Farley - CEO Ford - On 150 different softwares “confederation of software providers” Play VideoThis is the year the markets wake up and realize Tesla is the leader in Autonomous, and Real-world AI. https://x.com/herbertong/status/1876677493270479271Source Elon's interview at CES. Thinks humanoid robot will be biggest industry of all time! 3-4 robots/ person.Time to first Robot: Play at 10:20. Optimus robot is most advanced robot ever. 1000's this year. Several 1000. 10x next year. 50-100k robots in 2026.10x again, so 500k robots in 2027+. 30k robots * 30k price tag = 900,000,000 (900m). $1b. Summary = $1b in 2027. Runrate. New Model Y is out. NVIDIANVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang  Most interesting “The ChatGPT moment for robotics is coming. Like large language models, world foundation models are fundamental to advancing robot and AV development.NVIDIA's decision to invest in xAI ‘s recent $6B round speaks volumes. RecommendationsNetflix: Squid Game.LandmanMel Gibson on Rogan

Thailand 72 million people. 17 million in Bangkok. Staying at 4-5 star hotel. $125/ night. Golf Courses. Price. Bangkok. Entire trip was ~$6500, excluding airfare and dinners. Fairly inexpensive, once you are here. MarketsS&P 500 up 28.5% Year-to-date.Including dividends, the S&P 500 is now up over 29% this year. That sounds abnormally high, but is actually more common than you might think. The S&P 500 has finished with a total return above 25% in 26 out of 96 years since 1928. That's 27% of the time9.8% return on average since 1928.Tesla$430 high this week. Previously $410 in Nov 2021. $1.34 trillion market cap. Should easily reach $2-3 trillion in next few years with Robotaxi. V13 FSD is off the charts. Numerous reports on this. FSD v13 is better everywhere. There are no regressions that they've identified. It's become obvious that it will be unsupervised soon.One of the unique things about Tesla solving self-driving with AI is how novel it is. Everyone else uses $100k+ worth of sensors, cameras, and HD maps to solve for self-driving.Optimus is an entire level of vertical growth if it takes off. Video of optimus walking up and down mulch/leafy hill.  ‘Lawfare! Delaware activist judge Kathaleen McCormick declines to reinstate Elon Musk's Tesla compensation package, once again overruling the company's board and more than 72% of its shareholders. Palantir On X, said Elon and Palantir will work together. Alex Karp is phenomenally smart and says what he thinks in public. (See Elon Musk)Palantir CEO Alex Karp on the AI landscape: “America is in the very beginning of a revolution that we own, the AI revolution. We own it. It should be called the US AI revolution. Every single relevant company in the world is in this country. The second tier of those DOGE1 million examples to report, but here is 1: A 2023 Government Accountability Office report found that 17 agencies had less than a quarter utilization of their headquarters buildings early that year. Bernie Sanders: “Elon Musk is right”Netflix New all time highs! $936 this week. Netflix option program for employees.  Great value.I'm watching: Your Honor. Bryan Cranston's Breaking Bad follow-upA man in Full. Jeff Daniels Atlanta real estate tycoon. Thicha: Thai girl taking revenge!!  Merched because I'm in Thailand? Tokyo Swindlers.

Life:Enjoy time and family. Nobody says: should have worked more. Blue Origin deleted a video of the mission after Emily Calandrelli, the 100th woman in space, shared how online trolls ruined her milestone with misogynistic comments that reduced her to tears.She is a star! Point here is embrace people making fun of you. You take away their power. But never be embarrassed. Own it! Make a joke and nobody can make fun of you!First the Kamala message?  Don't let anyone take your power! Golf:Bryson made the hole in 1. Day 16. #14 134th attempt.  Break 50 with Tom Brady. 5 eagles and 13 birdies. Markets:Booming: S&P 500 up 27% YTDBitcoin: $96,000DOGEHow can this be “partisan”. It's our money! NIH spent $1.9b to study racism in 2024JPMorgan raised estimate of Argentina Growth to 8.5% next year. WSJ DOGE from Elon and Vivek: B2G:DOGE Cast Failed Audits. SpaceX & NASANASA's Space Launch System (SLS) rocket, which costs over $2 billion per launch, could reportedly be cancelled entirely.SpaceX has made rapid progress with Starship in the last 1.5 years, which aims to ultimately cost under $10M per launch, or 99.5% less than NASA's SLSPer Bloomberg: $100b Artemis program. SLS a National disgrace: Space Launch SystemFour years on, the program has consumed another $20b with nothing to show for it. $20b, bringing total development cost to over $100b. This program burns $12m per day! A single engine of the SLS rocket ($146M) is more expensive than a Starship Full stack ($100M, when expended). An engine that was already built and that flew several times with the Space Shuttle.TeslaPer Brad on B2G 2024 was Chat GPT moment. 2025 will be Autonomous driving. Moved investment from uber to Optimus is catching tennis balls.  This real!! Marc Andreeson on Joe RoganPerhaps most important podcast of the year. Most Federal Workers are at home.  1 day per month. Debanking.  PEP: politically exposed persons.  450 agencies. Independent federal agencies.AI Meetings with previous administration.  We will soon assume all info is AI generated, unless we have Blockchain Crypto key.  Recommendatio

SpaceXNeeds to be celebrated an honored. President Trump in attendance. Starship 6 launch! 120 meters tall. Each Raptor rocket engine produces twice as much thrust as all 4 engines on a 747. 33 Raptors = 66 747'sPointy RocketsElon on call with Sundar Ron Baron on Cost Plus contracts. PoliticsHow is Kamala in debt? Beyonce 10m? Oprah $1m for an interview?https://x.com/BillAckman/status/1855432554666664043Trump spent $345.42 Million$10.4 Million was spent on StaffKamala Spent $1.37 BillionKamala Spent $582.53 Million on StaffMarc and Ben on Policy Recap at 2:00 min It was the worst four years in our career in terms of White House policy as it related to technology and and business more broadly.DOGEVivek and Elon to to lead DOGE (Dept of Govt efficiency)Milton Friedman on getting rid of federal agencies. Elon explains why important. “There are around 428 federal agencies. There's so many that people have never even heard of.From Vivek: Here's a key point about our mission at DOGE.From Elon: All actions of the Department of Government Efficiency will be posted online for maximum transparency.We will also have a leaderboard for most insanely dumb Javier Milei: Afuera

Biden is laughing his ass off right now!! Here's a funny thread of conspiracy: Peppy walk & talk. Jill wearing all RED!! Markets are booming ridiculously: S&P 500 hits record high today at 6000. FATMANN: Bitcoin at $76,000. This does feel “frothy”Fed Cut rates again. Federal-funds rate to a range between 4.5% and 4.75%. All 12 Fed voters backed the cut.Bad for money markets good for economic growth. Netflix$798. Call it $800. All time high on Mkt cap about $340 billion. Tyson vs Jake Paul. 3-part documentary. Fight on Nov 15. Next Friday at 5:00pm. Palantir and NvidiaPalantir: Up 40% in the week.Nvidia: All time high at $148. $3.6 trillion. Largest company in world. Tesla: Stock at $326. $1 trillion market cap. Up 30% this week. $410 is high. So still 30% upside. Musk bet the farm. Could have been deported. Govt is/was after him. Lawsuits done. DOJ suing SpaceX for not hiring asylum seekers! ‘Gene Munster on Tesla and RobotaxiAutonomy IS HAPPENING! Now less govt regulation. Robots: Xping in China showing of Robots. Why is this good?! Robot videos. Robots ARE HAPPENING! PoliticsBiden seems skippy! Key difference now is long form podcasts! I (and others) really got to know Donald, JD, Tulsi, RFK.  I didn't hear an interview with ANYONE on Kamala's team. Andrew Yang said HUGE mistake not going on Joe Rogan. BTW, don't forget Rogan endorsed Bernie! He got screwed. So did Tulsi and RFK, because they refused to be puppets. Dems: Time to return to “normal”Maybe have a primary next time! Immigration: Bill Clinton in 1995 on immigration. Forever foreign wars and industrial military complex. Over regulation 450 govt agencies!   and over-spending! Inflation is messy, but was clearly on people's mindsDefunding Police!?  People want clean safe neighborhoods.Final Point: Good reset opportunity. We'll be fine. Wait One more thing:Epstein list!!! These guys are fucked! More than 150 names may be made public as part of a settled civil lawsuit against British socialite Ghislaine Maxwell — who was found guilty of conspiring with Epstein to sexually abuse underage girls for at least a decade — Maxwell "the mastermind" behind Epstein's sex trafficking ring.Diddy videos! Probably funny.  University of Oregon: Leonard Serrato. Here what he has to say! Recommendations?Get outside! Save and invest your money.  

OpeningI make mistakes on my podcasts. Please feel free to comment and fact-check me. It's hard. I try to go hard and not pause.Oregon plays Michigan today. Ducks favored by 14.5Redmond:Parents.Cold.Food carts and BEER!!! Need that in San Jose! Huge business opportunity!Single digit golf stats: MarketsOverall strong earnings, but seeing some pullback.  Can't bet against these big guys.  Wilshire 5000 to GDP Ratio:2.0 almost at all time high. Last time at 2 was Nov 2021.  CAPE Ratio: 3538 in Nov 2021. 44 in Dec 1999. Ford, Meta, Google, Microsoft, XAIFord EarningsFord to idle production of F150 Lightning. Ford has sold a mere 22,807 Lightnings so far this yearFord's EV division has lost $3.7 billion during the first three quarters of this year—about $55,000 per EV—and expects $5 billion to $5.5 billion in losses this year.Tesla Net Income $2.2 billion. Meta: These numbers are insane!Revenue up $6b or 19%. $41b vs $34bNet income up $4b (35%). . $16 vs $12. Google /Alphabet EarningsRevenues up 15% to $88.3 billion.Net income increased 34%MicrosoftRevenue was $65.6 billion and increased 16%xAI plans to bring online an additional 100,000 Nvidia GPUs at its Memphis. President of the USTrump on RoganJD Vance on RoganTulsi and RFK have also been on Rogan. And Elon. Kamala on Call her DaddyHillary Clinton in 2008:“If they've committed a crime… DEPORT THEM! No questions asked. PolyMarket: Jeff Bezos on Washington Post - TRUSTRegulations: From Chamath: Remember the Whales, Sharks and Seal studies from SpaceX.  Recommendations:The Penguin on Max. Slow Horses on Apple. The Lioness on Paramount.  Not easy to figure out!! Hours on phone/internet with Xfinity. No humans…impossible.  

Oregon Duck FootballPurdue 35-0. Ranked #1. Markets Netflix EarningsNew record high. $752 today, but reached $772.  Maybe running ahead of itself a little, but still pure streaming play with no end of growth in site. Q4: Tyson, Football, Squid…Tesla EarningsTesla up almost 22% today. At $260. High was 410. Sandy Munroe set me straight! Investor DeckEveryone should simply listen to the Earnings Call. Elon said 20-30% growth next year. Full autonomy approved and ride-hailing in CA and TX in 2025. Safer than humans by Q2 2025Full scale production of CyberCab by 2026. No steering wheel and no pedals. Big screen for movies and comfortable. Cybertruck became the third best-selling EV in Q3 in the U.S. (behind only Model Y and Model 3)Increased AI training compute by over 75% in Q3Over two billion miles driven cumulatively on FSD (Supervised)4 as of Q3 with more than 50% on V12Two key points coming here:Ability to learn. 10k miles per intervention. Optimus!!! Dexterity movement. 22 degrees of freedom. Human = 27. Doorknobs.Think about the AI real-world functionality. Most advanced humanoid robot by a long-shot! Only company that can scale manufacturing. Optimus will be most valuable part of company. The Services and Other business achieved a record gross profit in Q3, growing over 90% year-on-year. Financials:A lot of talk about the “machines” that build the machines. Most advanced factories in the world! Energy revenue up 52% YoY and Services up 29% YoY. Gross profit up 20%, with revenue up 8% Uber Demand aggregator?Self-driving cars: WSJ on Waymo and San Francisco, LA, Phoenix and Austin.Waymo is on a marketing blitz that includes social-media ads promoting the privacy of its cars for date nightAlso going to partner thru Uber app. Competition is good and will keep regulators in check. Google Waymo. Amazon: Zoox. GM: CruiseGoogles Waymo Now Obviously the Leader in Self-Driving Cars   

Bettina's Fall/Winter 2024 Fall Fashion ShowOregon wins 32-31 over Ohio StateExploiting loophole in rules. NCAA to close loophole. In the National Football League, the clock reverts back to the original time on a 12-man penalty — that is not the case in college football.10 seconds to go. 3rd and 25. Put an extra defender on field. Then either:(a) Buckeyes make a play and decline penalty. Or (b) Penalty accepted, and 4 seconds off clock. Only 5 yds gained. Now only 6 seconds on clock and need 10-12 yds to make field goal more realistic. Time more important than yards. 529 Plans and MarketsFidelity or Vanguard. Done. Wealthfront: couldn't find the underlying portfolio holdings? Holdings are WAY too conservative. 6000/month &6% or 7&7. Gets you between $200-$250k. 529 Rollovers? Can't roll it all to a Roth. $35,000 lifetime. RoboTaxi - We-Robot EventElon key note. Stayed in LA at Burbank Hotel. Nice. Elevator operator analogy. Cyber Cab unveil. Below $30k. No wheels or pedals. Production in 2026 (optimistic). Inductive charging. No plug. Fully autonomous unsupervised FSD in CA and Texas in 2025. Model 3Van that can carry up to 20 people or packaging. OptimusServing drinks and interacting with everyone there. Rumor is some human involvement. My interaction with Optimus. Sub-optimalShould cost $20-30k. Still thinks it will be biggest product ever of any kind. Everyone will want an optimus “buddy”. Nvidia and XAI: Jensen Juang on Brad Gerstner Podcast. 100m AI assistants to aid his workforce. Jensen talking to Brad: https://x.com/ajtourville/status/1845481395625304331?s=51&t=YUkdoBz4yNifBaQlQUp3-g“Never been done before – xAI did in 19 days what everyone else needs one year to accomplish. “Easily the fastest super computer on the planet”. Normally 3 years to plan and 1 year to set up. That is superhuman – There's only one person in the world who could do that – Elon Musk is singular in his understanding of engineering.” From Pierre FerraguHiiveCan buy SpaceX and XaI there. Sometimes with major conditions, like annual fee and “carry” of 10-20%. Netflix Earnings: Strong. CryptoBest asset class returns in 5 and 10 years…not fair to go back further? How much to own? Why? And where to hold it/ how to invest in it? IBIT and ETHA.Tight correlation to underlying assets. Managed by iShares/ Blackrock, so probably good controls in place. Fees are reasonable.Recommendations:Wife: Citadel Diana on Amazon

Interest rates down. Money market from 5.3% to 4.7% Get in now or wait? CAPE Ratio still high at 35. Mutual Funds! High Fees!Beating the marketInflation Milton Friedman on inflationNetflixStock all time high around $730. Up 49% YTD, compared to S&P500 at 23%Piper Sandler analyst Matt Farrell said Netflix "is a clear leader in streaming," according to The Fly. He upgraded the company to overweight from neutral and boosted his price target to $800 from $650. TD Cowen analyst John Blackledge raised the firm's price target on Netflix to $820 from $775 while maintaining a buy rating on the shares.Netflix (NFLX) is expected to benefit from a long runway for revenue growth and a deepening competitive moat, Morgan Stanley said in a report Thursday.The report also pointed to above consensus expectations for operating leverage and EPS."Our analysis of Netflix new 1H24 engagement report reinforces our bullish view," Morgan Stanley said, adding that the latest engagement report is backing the "Netflix content advantage," referring to its original programming, international content, and the value of its content library.Following "peak TV" and recent strikes, Hollywood's new normal favors Netflix, with reduced competition for content and media studios open to licensing again, the report said. It said the ad-tier introduction would also help raise revenue.Morgan Stanley raised its price target for the stock to $820 from $780 while reiterating its overweight rating.Apple At $228 vs high of $234. Downgraded by Jeffries.Is Apple Intelligence a thing?Iphone is 50% of salesIs Iphone 16 enough?Me thesis:Entire family uses. Customer service is insanely good!! All photos there. Ear buds. Amazon$187, was around $200. Not sure how you bet against Amazon. In 2023, Amazon was the third largest digital ad publisher in the United States, behind Google and Facebook. Amazon's global ad revenue reached $49 billion in 2023, which is nearly triple its 2019 result.Fabric of life. Everyday we get a package. First place I go to search/buy. Free returns. Easy. MicrosoftTo buy 3-mile island. Newsom bans voter id requirements. Elon Musk on Tucker23.30 on is Epstein list discussion. Videos. Diddy and Epstein. 28.00 - How will they let X continue? Lawfare!!  Illegal to discriminate asslym seekers, but can't hire as SpaceX. Point is DOJ is weaponized. Cuban on All In Podcast. Monsters on NetflixSlow Horses (called it White Horses before)Wife watching “Troy: Fall of a City”

LifeYoga life. College admissions: Tulane:Tuition and Fees: $69kHousing: $11k. Meals: $8kBooks: $1kTotal: $88,000. * 4 = $352,000Wow. College can be very expensive!Diddyhttps://youtu.be/NKMtZm2YuBE?si=irc0uxpLLHbHpBjE&t=53What's up with Diddy? His fashion label, Sean John. Not a bad nameThe rapper is “going to fight this with all of his energy and all of his might,” and during a court hearing argued that the so-called freak-offs — marathon sexual productions that prosecutors say involved hired sex workers and women coerced to perform sexual acts for the gratification of Combs and others — were consensual, if unconventional. “Is it sex trafficking?” he asked in court last week. “No, not if everybody wants to be there.”Lot's of tapes recordings. So be careful if you go to a sex party. Know you're getting recorded. Be cool with it. authorities say they seized “more than 1,000 bottles of baby oil and lubricantAny similarities to Epstein here?MarketsEverything is up. S&P 500 up 20% YTD.As a reminder: 10%: Double in 7 years. 7% double in 10 years. What is PE or Price to Earnings?  PE definition and explanationWhen you make an investment and pay cash you're looking to receive more cash ultimately than you put in. Price to Earnings Ratio. Value of company; i.e. Market Cap. Divided by Earnings (12 months). Example: Company is valued at $100m. Earns $5m per year. PE = 20. Could think of it as 20 years to get your money back thru earnings. Cape RatioCape Ratio (like PE) average of top 500 US Companies since 1950 is about 20. Now it is at 35. Seems high right? Don't be surprised if there is a 10-20% correction in next 6-12 months. NY MayorDidn't toe the line and he is paying the price. Eric Adams indicted. Bill Ackman explains. Eric SpeechFAA Hates SpaceXRep. Kiley Questions FAA Administrator Michael Whitaker at T&I Committee HearingSpaceX letter refuting everything the FAA administrator said. Let them launch for crying out loud. Tesla Stock BoomingI somehow got invited to Tesla AI event!?MetaOrion Glasses NetflixAll time high. Still the best pure streaming play. SouthwestNo more open seating and adding premium seating! Recommendations:Instigators on Apple TVChamath on Joe Rogan. 

PersonalYogaGolf LessonMarketsS&P500 up 20%VGT up 19%Dividends/value up 11%. 3.36% yieldBTW: 5 years ago you buy VGT: you're up 2.7x. $100k = $270kVOO: up 2x  = $200kAt 7% annualized return = double in 10 years. At 10% annualized return = double in 7 years. At 20% annualized return = double in 4 yearsFed just cut by 0.5%. First cut since 2020. I.e. Covid. Current federal-funds rate is at 5.25% to 5.50%, Expect 0.75% of cuts in 2024. Meeting Sept 18. 2 more this year. 2.00% to 2.25% by year-end 2026.So what does this mean? Money Market lower returns.Mortgage rates should come down. Car loans down. Good for Tesla. Government Debt per WSJAccording to recent data, interest expense currently makes up around 13% of the US government budget, representing the third largest spending category behind Social Security and Medicare.Demand for AIListen to Larry Ellison explaining the crazy demand for AI. Netflix:All time high.I still think its recession proof! Seems like Q4 subscription #'s should be HUGE! WHY?  New events:  Boxing: Tyson and Jake PaulThe fight, which will be held over eight two-minute rounds, will now take place on November 15 at the At&T Stadium in Texas.Tyson, 58 is 30 years older than Jake. Squid game: Squid Game Season 2 will premiere on Dec. 26, Most-watched series: Squid Game became Netflix's most-watched series and the most-watched program in 94 countries.NFL Football x-mas. On Dec. 25, 2024, we'll be the global home of the NFL's two Christmas Day marquee games:TeslaTesla Semi: PepsiCo drivers love it. PepsiCo said today that their drivers who operate the company's Tesla Semi trucks have reported that, after driving the electric truck, they don't want to go back to driving a diesel truck.Elon on All In Podcast Summit15:40 on Fresh Water dumping and $140k fine. Inspiration. Uncrewed landing to Mars in 2026 Crews in 2028 if successful (and if government gets out of way). Recommendations:All In - Megyn KellyAll In - John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs. Univ of Chicago and Columbia. All In - Interview with Dave PortnoyNapoleon on Apple. 

Trump & Kamala Debate: Boring and horrible. Name calling. Accusations. Nothing interesting or intelligent. Markets:YTD: S&P up 16%.Tech (QQQ) up  15%.High Quality up 10%.Building Wealth for your kids: My Blog analysis on Building wealth for kids. 529s and Roth 401k. Small investments over time create generational wealth.Nvidia$3t market cap. $30b revenue/qtr.  $28b in cashflow.Mgmt style: Jensen Huang on Working. Government vs Capitalists: All in at 56.30: Friedberg: Do you want someone who has lived in government or is not a government operative? Career civil servants vs. capitalists. 1.17.40.  Government spending is 50% of GDP. So could say ½ of people are employed directly or indirectly by government. Free market system is finished if there are more “takers” than “makers”.Government Efficiency (oxymoron):Donald Trump on Government efficiency commission:From WSJ: Trump Proposes 15% Tax Rate for Some Companies and a Role for Elon Musk in GovernmentElon Musk has said that all laws/regs should be auto-repealed after 20 years or some time. Otherwise we're in a web of bureaucracy. Getting a Loan from DOE is near impossible. I have a story.TeslaTesla Robotaxi day on October 10. SpaceXThe company confirmed that the SpaceX Crew Dragon spacecraft carrying the crew reached its peak altitude of 1,400.7 kilometers (870 miles).That distance surpassed the record set by NASA's 1966 Gemini 11 missionAlso!!! 60 day delay for Starship launch. “Unfortunately, we continue to be stuck in a reality where it takes longer to do the government paperwork to license a rocket launch than it does to design and build the actual hardware,” the firm said. “This should never happen and directly threatens America's position as the leader in space.”https://www.spacex.com/updates/Nuclear Power imperative by Bill and Brad.Recommendations:Bryson DeShambeau on YouTube:Breaking 50. With Tony Romo (64 is his lowest round). Eagled 1st hole!! Podcasts:Smartless interview with Michael Keaton. Rogan ActorsRussel CroweDennis QuaidTV: Wyatt Earp on Netflix. 

Yacht sinks:Living the dream. Anchored off Sicily coast in late summer. Storm sinks you in early morning. Dead. 15 people rescued, including 1 year old girl. 6 dead. 5 found in sunken boat. 184ft $35m yacht. 165 ft deep.  In tact. Investments and MarketsMarkets booming. year-to-dateS&P: 20%Tech: 18%Div: 14%Bitcoin up 40%! Netflix up 44%. Netflix!All time high. $700. Jake Paul, Tyson, Squid. NFL. Excited for Wyatt Earp.Mag 7:I can't think of a reason to bet against any of these? Apple: all i useMicrosoft: embedded in every corporation (redwood). Nvidia: Years ahead of competition. Meta: Open source AI. Google: Break it up! Worth more! Amazon: Only place I buy from. Tesla: Robot in my kitchen prepping my coffee and other beverages. (10 years).Ford has said its EV business is on pace to lose about $5 billion this year. In the three-month period ended in June, the automaker lost about $44,000 on every electric vehicle that it sold. is canceling plans for a large electric sport-utility vehicle and expects to take $1.9 billion in related special charges and write-downs, as automakers continue adjusting their EV plans because of softer-than-expected demand.The AI Race:Politics and Govt PolicyPolicies. Friedberg on Price fixing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xA5B6quoahY1:06:35Biggest problem with both parties is excessive spending to please big money backers and constituents. Milton Friedman on spending: Nobel Prize-winning economist: https://x.com/icannot_enough/status/1824411533671080335?s=51&t=YUkdoBz4yNifBaQlQUp3-gWhere is Kamala. Obama at DMC speech. Pretty dynamic. Trump on Theo Von vs Trump on X-spaces with Elon. All in PodcastTalked a lot about drugs and alcohol. Trump has never smoked or drank alcohol. Pretty remarkable. Brotherly advice (me on the otherhand…)Saving for your kids:Probably need $250,000. Rule of 7&7. $7000/yr at 7% over ~18 years. Roth IRA. Brokerage Account. Retirement Strategies:My simplest rule is $5m. Why? Most people can live pretty good on that. 5% return, $250k/year.  Age 45 have $1m. Double in 7 and again 7: at 60 you're at $4m. Very stressful when you don't have an income. Recommendations:Work your ass off.Hit the gym every day; or at least break a sweat.Dinner with kids.

Life updates:20 years of marriage!! Cost RicaWhy talk about Politics and government? Has a profound effect on business.U-Haul Announces Top Growth States of 2023Texas netted the largest number of movers in one-way U-Haul® equipment in 2023, marking the third consecutive year it has finished atop the U-Haul Growth Index.“Government has three primary functions. It should provide for military defense of the nation. It should enforce contracts between individuals. It should protect citizens from crimes against themselves or their property. When government-- in pursuit of good intentions tries to rearrange the economy, legislate morality, or help special interests, the cost come in inefficiency, lack of motivation, and loss of freedom. Government should be a referee, not an active player.”― Milton FriedmanExample: Contained within the 2021 infrastructure bill, the Broadband Equity Access and Deployment (BEAD) program authorized more than $42 billion in grants, to "connect everyone in America to reliable, affordable high-speed internet by the end of the decade."Not one single household connected. Starlink could do now for a fraction of the cost. Its entirely obvious. Among several examples, the senators noted that NTIA's BEAD proposal "requires subgrantees to prioritize certain segments of the workforce, such as 'individuals with past criminal records' and 'justice-impacted […] participants.'"Bill Gurley and Brad Gurstner on FCCBen and Mark Show: Key Silicon Valley leaders turning on Democratic policies. They have Billions $ at stake and do not want to talk about politics, but its paramount to the future of tech and innovation in the US.  Technology, Economy and Military. For example:Regulatory agencies have been green lit to use brute force investigations, prosecutions, intimidation, and threats to hobble new industries, such as Blockchain and Artificial Intelligence.Energy: Europe is the ghost of xmas future. Need to be energy independent!Tax: Structure! Unrealized Gains! – Not rate discussion. Trump vs. Kamala?Kamala policies>Trump:Capitalist and pro-business. Freedom of speech. Reasonable border policy. No more forever wars. Supports independent energy. Tough on crime. Not even tough, but basic security. TeslaAI, Robotics and Energy. Real-world AI. Explain. Not LLMCars and Optimus. Battery and Solar manufacturing. Stocks and EconomyMarket Correction. On Monday the 3rd day of “down”. Market down 8-9%, Tech 13%, Nvidia 28%: CAPE at 35. Since 2000 Average is 27. Recommendations.All In podcast with Trump. Rogan and Jordan PetersonAndreesen Horowitz. Presumed Innocent. - AppleYour Honor - Netflix (airplane qualification)Land of Bad - Netflix (airplane)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bl7IqyEyqhYApr 22. Wow. Been awhile. Volleyball. Mexico. Markets:If you lived thru 2021 you're a rockstar and welcome to our first year down YTD US up 7% and Tech up 20%. Since Dec, 2021 US down 14% and Tech down 20%I know many and myself buying 6 month 5% bonds. But maybe I should pay down the mortgage?Recession looming. San Francisco vacancy at 33%. 15 sales force towers.??National Guard in SFNetflix:$690 - $166 - $328. 232m paid subs. Same analogy I make to legacy media. Disney (closest streaming competitor) lost $1b on streaming. Amazon makes no money except on AWS.Key statement: “We are pleased with the current performance and trajectory of our per-member advertising economics. In the US for instance, our ads plan already has a total ARM (subscription + ads) greater than our standard plan.”Winding down DVD.comTesla:Margins are down. ButFord Motor said Thursday its electric vehicle business lost $2.1 billion last year.Tesla Net Income $2.5b in the quarter! Punchline: How can these companies scale. Innovators dilemma. Charging network, insurance. Battery tech. Lithium refining! Model Y best selling car in Europe. 2nd best in US behind Pickups. Cyber Truck in Q3 and FSD this year? Definitely by 2025. “Our growing fleet of FSD Beta users has an exponential impact on total FSD Beta miles driven – with over 150 million miles to date and counting.”Service and existing fleet. Service is margin. Razors and blades! : 59.08: . Pricing: Sit around in a room and make informed decision 1/week. SpaceX:Everyday Astronaut ThreadAntonio Gracias. Mainstream media perspective. So you going to bet against this company. Has anyone else landed a rocket? Dec 2015. 8 years ago. Blue Origin in 2021. Recommendations: Night Watch, Full Swing, Succession

Markets. S&P 500 -16%, Tech QQQ -30%, Utra tech! ARKK Tech -65%4.6% on 6 month treasury.Inflation. 7.1% YoY.  Fed raised 0.5%. So now 4.25% - 4.5%. Probably going to 5.0 - 5.5%.  Fastest in history. My Mortgage. 4.5% and adjusting again to 2.25% + LIBOR. Baby its cold outside! Crypto Arrests.  SBF in US and out on bail!  $250 million. Caroline and Wang charged. Caroline Ellison, the former chief executive of Alameda Research, a trading firm tied to FTX, and Gary Wang, FTX's former chief technology officer, both pleaded guilty to criminal offenses similar to those Mr. Bankman-Fried was charged with last week. Ms. Ellison, 28 years old, pleaded guilty to seven counts, including wire fraud and conspiracy to commit securities fraud, according to her plea agreement, which was signed Monday. Mr. Wang, 29, pleaded guilty to four counts, including wire fraud.Caroline interview. Tesla/Twitter: Twitter Spaces. 1 hour interview with 38,000 listening.  13.56. Making ads better.  Making sure Twitter doesn't go bankrupt. Tesla stock down 69% YTD. $400b company. Now it could triple in 2023. Buffet will probably take a serious look. Elon has inspired a CEO and silicon valley “builders” renaissance. Elon to step down as CEO. Mr. Beast!? San Francisco to investigate worker conditions. Sleeping at work! From WSJ: Redundant managers, along with managers who have opaque responsibilities, are in essence professional critics. Tesla: Tesla energy. MegaPack in Lathrop.FSDTesla SemiAll they want for Christmas is to stop that Mariah Carey song. Is Netflix back? Last week, Netflix said “Wednesday” had crossed 1 billion hours viewed, only the third title to do so within 28 days of its release, joining “Stranger Things 4” and “Squid Game.” Netflix Training classes See Rich Greenfields tweet about eyeballs. Recommendations: White Lotus.WednesdayThe Peripheral on Amazon. Mr. Beast interview on Rogan. Saw it on a list of most liked podcast episodes. Country xmas on Spotify. 

Markets. Down 17% was down 25%. Meta job cuts. 11000 13%. Brad Gerstner letter. A summary of some of the layoffs this year…Twitter: cutting 50% of its workforce (estimated 3,700 jobs).Facebook ($META): cutting 13% of its staff (11,000 jobs), its largest round of CryptoSBF is a FRAUD! Bernie Madoff style! FTX lends money to Alameda!! $10b loan on $16b in assets.   FTX meltdown. FTX. Alameda. Binance. Coinbase. Nothing safe. FTX has a prominent list of backers such as Sequoia Capital, BlackRock Inc., Tiger Global Management and SoftBank Group Corp.Sam Bankman-Fried. $8b shortfall! He was worth $26b…apparently.  Tom & Gisele. Hedgefunds. FTX Arena in Miami. Home of Heat. FTX on umpire uniforms. Celeb lawsuits: https://deadline.com/2022/11/tom-brady-giselle-bundchen-ftx-lawsuit-larry-david-steph-curry-crypto-1235174541/In the case of Curry, the NBA legend admitted in another tongue-in-cheek-ish TV spot that he was not that knowledgeable about crypto. He added, looking at the camera: “I don't need to be. With FTX I have everything I need to buy, sell, and trade crypto safely.”FTX's new chief executive“Never in my career have I seen such a complete failure of corporate controls and such a complete absence of trustworthy financial information as occurred here,”  “From compromised systems integrity and faulty regulatory oversight abroad, to the concentration of control in the hands of a very small group of inexperienced, unsophisticated and potentially compromised individuals, this situation is unprecedented.”SBF is 2nd largest democratic donor this election cycle. $37 million. SBF parents. raised by two Stanford professors who specialize in law and taxes.Caroline Ellison.    Caroline interview. Related party loans: $300m from last $450m investment to SBF.  Alameda Research had $4.1 billion in related-party loans. Among those were $1 billion to Bankman-Fried, $543 million to FTX Director of Engineering Nishad Singh and $55 million to FTX Digital Markets head Ryan SalamTwitterLays off ½ of 7500 workers. Had to bring some back.  The whole world shit-posting that the site will go down now. Tesla AI runs with 150 engineers. Ligma and Johnson.

Markets. Down 20%. Was 25%, but rallied up 5% just this week.  GDP growth 2.6% (-1.6 and -0.6 in Q1 and Q2). So no recession…currently. Apple. +7%Amazon. -14% Meta. -25%Amazon. AWS insanely profitable. All other biz combined is break-even. Sales of $127b and Operating Income of only $2.5b (2%).Story: AWS $5.4b. All Other: $-2.9b. Everything losing money!! Tesla: $5b on $21b. Meta: meltdown. "Meta's results last night was an absolute train wreck that speaks to pervasive digital advertising doldrums ahead for Zuckerberg & Co. as they make the risky and head scratching bet on the metaverse," Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said in a report. Revenue flat to Q4 20 at $27b. NI 4.3 vs 7.8!! Viral Video (Play audio). Twitter: what “products” does a 23 yr old product manager manage? 71% off high. Mkt cap $265b. Was 913b.Headcount growth! The number of employees is up over 3x from 25k to 85k employees in just the last four years! Wants everybody to work in MetaVerse!? Brad Gerstner letter. To accomplish this goal, we recommend a three step plan that will double FCF to $40 B per year and focus the company's teams and investments:Reduce headcount expense by at least 20%;Reduce annual capex by at least $5 B from $30B to $25B; andLimit investment in metaverse / Reality Labs to no more than $5B per year.The Netflix rebound.Hammered too hard initially. Reached “profitability” and growing. No one else has. Disney will. Amazon spending too much! Advertising more appreciated. Not affected by Apple tracking. A rich ocean to fish in. Comcast. Peacock has 15m subs and lost $614m in the quarter. Twitter takeover. Walks in with Kitchen Sink. Entering Twitter HQ – let that sink in!”Fires CEO and CFO and head lawyer. $100m in severance payDenies that he'll fire 75% of workforce. Tesla engineers reviewing code. Employees walking out with boxes. Hoax? Just tweeted: Twitter will be forming a content moderation council with widely diverse viewpoints. No major content decisions or account reinstatements will happen before that council convenes.People threatening to leave.. Where? Truth Social, Parler? Tesla: Cruise vs Tesla FSD in SF. Recommendations: Upload.

US Stock market is down 22% and the Nasdaq 100 (NDX or QQQ) is down 32% year-to-date. NetflixAfter 2 quarters of negative subscriber growth Netflix adds 2.4 million subscribers in Q3 and expects 4.5m in Q4. Here are some key takeaways. Revenue grew 6% YoY or 13% excluding FX. This is a big deal because it shows they continue to scale topline at double digit growth. Advertising tier launching in November ($6.99 in US). 5 minutes of advertising per hour. As linear TV continues to die, advertising $'s will move to streaming. Netflix is charging top tier rates to advertisers. Netflix estimates all streaming competitors are losing money and combined losses are north of $10 billion. Why important? Because Netflix has reached critical mass and is generating $5-6 billion in annual operating profit. Very difficult to replicate! Free cash-flow over $1 billion in 2022 and materially larger in 2023. Netflix stock was 75% off its high. Now it is trading around $270 or 61% off high.TeslaTesla is the most exciting company in the world; leading the EV revolution and transition to sustainable energy.Q3 Revenue: $23 billion. Up 56% Year-over-year. Q3 EBITDA: $5 billion. Up 55%. Q3 Storage Deployed (residential and commercial batteries). Up 62% Full Self Driving (FSD) Beta will roll out to everyone in Q4.Reiterated 50% topline growth for the foreseeable future. Semi deliveries begin this December and Cyber next year. Next gen car will be half the cost of 3/Y platform and smaller. Will exceed production output of all other vehicles combined.Elon see's a pathway for Tesla to exceed the value of Apple and Saudi Aramco combined ($4.4 trillion), excluding accounting for Optimus (the robot). I do too.Tesla stock down 5%

MarketsDown 24% YtD. Layoffs and Freezes and Downgrades and UpgradesLyft has frozen hiring. Meta froze hiring. Docusign cutting 9% of workforce. Apple downgrade: The iPhone maker dropped 4.9% after Bank of America cut its rating to neutral from buy, warning of weaker consumer demand for its popular devices. The selloff erased roughly $120 billion from Apple's market capitalization.Nike down 10%. Inventory up 44% QoQ.  NetflixNetflix upgrade:Last week. Two this week. $283. Netflix up 35% in quarter from $175 to $240. Advertising $'s. $65/1000 views. Advertisers may allocate from Meta to Netflix. Federal ReserveThe Fed led by Jerome Powell raised the Fed Funds rate 75 bps to 3.0 - 3.25%. Expectation is now 4.0 - 4.5% by year end. Powell is determined to sink the economy to drive inflation to 2%. Why 2 and not 3%. We have a strong economy, strong underlying demand, low unemployment and the Fed is determined to destroy that. CathieDWood (@Cathie Wood) Tweeted: The Fed is basing monetary policy decisions on lagging indicators: employment and core inflation. Leading inflation indicators like gold and copper are flagging the risk of deflationCommoditiesCommodities are down. Lumber: $410 down from $1300 in February 2022. Copper at $334 from high of $494 in March. Iron Ore $150 to $109.  Oil? Not so muchHousingHousing: 30 year mortgage rate is up from 3% to 7%. Result: $23k increase in down payment (assuming 20% down) and 100% increase in monthly payment (from $1,345 to $2,694).TeslaTesla Recall. NHTSA FUD. Tesla is recalling more than a million cars because of defects in their automatic windows that could injure passengers, the nation's auto safety regulator said. FSD Beta. Rolling out to all owners with driving score >80. Tesla AI Day.Note, this event is meant for recruiting AI & robotics engineers, so will be highly technicalAs well as advanced chip & supercomputer engineers for next-gen training & inferenceWhat are Jim and Mary thinking? Quote: Children are happy because: They're not self conscious. They lack a sense of time pressureThey've no goals. 

MarketsDown 17%. Tech down 25%. Housing.Homes in August sat on the market an average five days longer than they did a year ago.The median listing price in August dropped to $435,000 from $449,000 in JulyThe average home sold for less than its list price for the first time in more than 17 months during the four-week period ended Aug. 28, according to RedfinNord Stream Pipeline closed again. Russia booking record profits. Long cold winter for Germany.   Biden Speach: Red lights. Looks like Nazi Germany. Portnoy Rant.  Who are Maga Republicans? 5%, 10% far right? 49%? Far “left” just as dangerous. He just speak to the extremes if he wants to “unite” the country. White house seeking $12b for Ukraine. In addition to $40b already approved. Roger Waters on American politics. And in Mississippi. Nvidia: On July 27 Pelosi sells Nvidia stock.Aug 26 Government says can't sell advanced chips to China. Energy (in California)August 24 CA bans the sale of gasoline cars by 2035. August 30: Stop charging electric vehicles. May have rolling blackouts.  Diablo Canyon Closure and then re-open.LA Times: How much does that plant produce? From PG&E directly:18,000 gigawatt hours. ~10% of California's energy needs. For years, Diablo Canyon has continued to safely produce clean and reliable energy without greenhouse gases (GHG), avoiding 6 to 7 million tons per year of GHGs that would be emitted by conventional generation resources. Built to withstand extreme natural disasters, including earthquakes, Diablo Canyon's design features state-of-the-art seismic supportsWe need energy independence, which means mining too.   TeslaInvestment grade debate. Answer from Moody's.  Narrow product line.  AXA Tesla video and apology.Volkswagon sucks at software. This is where most car companies are. Tesla FSD 10.69.1 69 minutes non-stop driving in SF. Record delivery for Aug and Sept is Shanghai. Netflix: Advertising live Nov 1!? $7-9 pricingRecommendations: Joe Rogan: Tim Dillon and ZuckerbergPam and Tommy. So dumb! But can't stop watching. Sex and Rock n Roll.  

The MarketsDown 13% YtD.  I don't think we'll see new highs until 2024. Just gonna bounce around.The Fed. Jerome Powell: “Restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time,” Student loan debt reliefThe president's plan cancels $10,000 in federal student-loan debt for borrowers making under $125,000 a year or couples making less than $250,000 a year. Ultimately, the average cost of tuition has increased more than 144% since 2001 on average, even after accounting for inflation.It's not “fair”.  Nothing is though! The bigger issue is it doesn't fix the underlying issue. Let markets drive supply/demand. Literature/history major. Optometrist example.  Need to fix underlying issue: University costs are rising faster than cost of living and fueled by college administrators that are incentivized to encourage students to borrow. We should used a market-based approach to student lending. Universities should be on the line. Should approve. Market based. Grades and Major. Some states are going to levy taxes on forgiven debt.   https://lendedu.com/blog/student-loan-debt-by-school-by-state/Novak Dkokovic Not competing in US open because he's not vaccinated. So many people are getting Covid, including the CEO of Pfizer.  Electricity Prices20 million households across the country—about 1 in 6 American homes—have fallen behind on their utility bills.Electric VehiclesCalifornia Switch to electric vehicles by 2030. 17 states generally follow. Tesla Stock split. 900 to 300.Tesla 10.69.2 set to release in a couple of weeks. “Wide Beta” version. FSD price increased to $15k. Very bullish.  Investment grade rating. Record Q3 and Q4 deliveries and profits.  Semi release in Q4 and CyberTruck in 2023. Continued ramping of factories and likely announcement of new Giga.Macro-level: Energy prices driving Solar consumption. Tesla Virtual Power Plant program. RecommendationsHouse of the Dragon. Meh. And HBO renewed it. Hand Maids Tail.  Rings of Power?  $250m for rights. $500m to make. Rory and Tiger

Markets Yes, We're in a recession, but White House attempting to change the definition after …centuries…forever? Recession is 2 quarters of negative GDP. Inflation at 8.5%. US stocks down 24% and Tech down 31% on June 17. Now: 12% and 18%, respectively. PoliticsNancy Pelosi visits Taiwan. Prompts drills and missile tests by China. Do we really need this right now? Is that a good idea? Does it advance American interests? Since 1979 and under many administrations - left and right - we've maintained a policy of “Strategic Ambiguity”.Raid on Trump's Mar a Lago. Could be Nuke materials…in that case…kind of serious. Why not just make photo-copies. Or take pics on iPhone. So easy!? Could there be a master plan. I thought the locker room talk would lock him out of the presidency.  IRS70000 new agents. Requirements: 37 yrs old requirement. Adhere to the highest standards of conduct especially meeting honesty and integrity.Work a minimum of 50 hours per week which may include irregular hours and be on call 24/7 including holidays and weekends. Maintain a level of Fitness necessary to effectively respond to life-threatening situations on the job.Carry a firearm and be willing to use deadly force if necessary.Be willing and able to participate in arrest and execution of search warrants and other dangerous assignments.IRS Math: Elon on National Debt: “US national debt is ~$28,900 billion or ~$229k per taxpayer.Even taxing all “billionaires” at 100% would only make a small dent in that number, so obviously the rest must come from the general public. This is basic math.Spending is the real problem.”Tesla Elon Tweets Reminds us of Master Plan part deux.  Written July 2016. Everything came around. Master plan 3 coming. Semi Truck. Cybertruck. New and expanded facilities. Machine of Machines. Jim Farley: https://twitter.com/_Tesla247_/status/1557472545695322112. Take that Elon Musk!  What? Dan Odowd and FSD running over children!! Sex Tapes. Sticky situation. Elon 18 years. And running 3 others:  Including SpaceX, which landed first rocket in 2015 no one has done so since.  Streaming Wars: https://www.wsj.com/articles/disney-price-increase-shows-limits-of-subscriber-growth-push-11660256118?mod=hp_lead_pos3https://twitter.com/RichLightShed/status/1557480645705830402Subscriber #'s at Disney 2x and 3x counted. 3 types: Pure Streaming: Netflix, Amazon, Apple.Mix: Paramount, WBD, Peacock, DisneyArms Dealer: Sony. Recommendations: Obstacle is the way. Ryan Holiday. Happiness corresponds to how much you think about yourself vs. others! Terminal List. Chris PrattOld Man w/ Jeff Bridges

Economy/Markets.  US Stocks down 22%, tech down 28%, ARKK down 55%. Inflation print. CPI at 9.1%Energy and Gas up 60% Food up 10%. These are the items that are killing average Americans. What now: War, Supply Chains, Inflation (supply driven), and Fed actions.  We need a peace deal to end the war and we need China open. Are we in a recession? Yes. Politics: 70-80% of americans in general agreement. Then the 10% wacko's come out and ruin everything for the rest of us. Climate change or die! No. There is a middle ground. Energy. Pass $1 trillion bill. $500b on near term energy and $500b on long term sustainable clean energy. To easy, right!?Abortion. Shouldn't have gone here!?Netflix: Bad guide. Stock down 75%. Partnering with Microsoft for adsTikTok kicking Netflix's ass…so why not compete head on. Lots of Cheap stocks:Example: Stitchfix down 95%. Bill Gurley buys $5m of StitchFix. 20x return if it goes back. That's the good news. Twitter/MuskSpam accounts hard to determine.Twitter suit against Musk looks like a looser. Elon Musk is a nightmare client. The Atlantic. Tesla returning to office. As for Musk himself, the CEO had said in an email a few days earlier that he would spend six days a week in the factory, “seven if physically possible.” In the email, which The Information reviewed and which hasn't been previously reported, Musk added, “BTW, anything I ask others to do, I do myself even more.”Tesla: All automakers down today. Watching this guy say that Tesla will “revert to mean” of other company valuations. No they wont. Solar, Battery, Cars, AI, HVAC, Semi's, Entertainment: TopgunTour de France. British Open for Golf. Tiger shot a 78. 

Austin Texas bachelor party. I love that town. Dr. Emperor of masks and vaccs Fauci has Covid; and he's been vaccinated 4 times. Chesa Boudin the progressive DA of the most progressive city was recalled. Are people actually getting tired of crime? Markets: S&P down 23% and Nasdaq 100 down 30%. Fed just raised 0.75% this week. First time since 1994. Now we're at 1.75%. Inflation. Gas. War. 8.6% 100% up for gas. News flash: interest rate hikes don't drive gas prices down. Credit card companies make a lot more money when gas prices double. Their revenue doubles. Buy Visa and Mastercard?Housing: In Jan 2021 30 yr mortgage rate was 2.65%. Avg home price $402k. Today. 5.78% and $570k. 20% down payment. Monthly payment is $1,294 to $2,671. 106% increase. Rates are 3% higher. So $500k loan. $15k/year or $1,250/mo. I personally just saw more houses for sale on Zillow in my neighborhood, more than ever. USA Today removes 23 articles after a reporter fabricated sources. USA today is allegedly a “fact checker” for Facebook and possibly Twitter. Musk at Twitter All-hands.  Elon Musk: SpaceX fires employees. No unsolicited employee activism needed!! NYT reporting on letter. Brian Armstrong did this at Coinbase. “The letter, solicitations and general process made employees feel uncomfortable, intimidated and bullied, and/or angry because the letter pressured them to sign onto something that did not reflect their views,” Ms. Shotwell wrote. “We have too much critical work to accomplish and no need for this kind of overreaching activism.”Twitter: So casual. Looks like he is on iPhone and some dude walking around in kitchen in background. 200m daily users. 7.8b Gap. 8b in world. Wants 1b at least. How to verify. $3/month. Payments. Entertaining advertising.Video: Talk about how to make Twitter better! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FLvTcRrzy20Video 2: How do you define success. Netflix take some lessons! TikTok!! Electrician and immigration. 3 strategies: PHD's. Lower labor. Refugees. AND Strong borders. Tesla stuck in the mountains. https://twitter.com/ShowersJacob/status/1537556676558979072

Mike Greene is innovating and changing the future of single-family home investment opportunities! Mike Greene is the CEO of Resi-Shares; a firm that is leveraging data, technology, and financial innovation to deliver systematically diversified appreciation and rental income from single family homes.Mike and I go back a long way having attended the MBA program at UC Berkeley.  Mike has worked his entire life in real estate including sell-side banking, buy-side and finally at HouseCanary, a company leveraging big data and AI to provide actionable insights on real estate. In this episode we talk about: When Mike co-founded his business Covid hit and he thought it would be a perfect time to invest in single-family housing, but the markets sky-rocketed and real estate prices went up. Turned out the timing was terrible, but like any great entrepreneur he persevered, learned a lot and survived! What his company Resi-Shares and other institutions are doing in the real estate markets: BlackRock, BlackStone, and investing in real estate investment trusts (REIT's). We spend a lot of time talking about Bay Area real estate (at my admittedly selfish request). Should you buy or rent?Should you sell or rent if you're moving? What's going to happen to Bay Area real estate, given economy and interest rates.  We've seen a migration out of California, but housing consistently goes up in price. We dive into the why. Recommendations discussed: Anthony Bourdain - Medium RawLakers Fiction/non-fiction story: Winning Time

Markets: S&P 500 down 15% and Nasdaq 100 down 23% YTD. Housing Market: Mortgage rates from 2.5 to 5.5%. $1m loan at 3% is $30,000 per year, Double that to get pre-tax earnings of $60,000. That means you need to be earning at least $60,000 more per year to cover mortgage interest on $1m loan. There is a silver lining to this market. Big downturns every decade or so make for the best 2-3 time opportunities in life to invest. 2022 is it. Fund your 529's. Dollar cost average in.  Sept 2000: 1520 - 800 Oct 2002. 47%. Oct 2007: 1565. 95% (doubled money in 5 years). March 2009: 712. 54% down. Jan 2022: 4800. 574%. Almost 6x. 13 years. May 2022: 3900. 20% down. Tesla: Elon Emails: https://twitter.com/WholeMarsBlog/status/1532728341865943040Bloomberg: To be super clear! “Pretend to Work somewhere else” - Elon Musk. Reuters: Elon email to cut staff by 10%. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/technology/exclusive-musk-says-tesla-needs-cut-staff-by-10-pauses-all-hiring-2022-06-03/Joe Biden Video9000 Ton Giga-press for Cybertruck. YouTube videoStock down 10% hahaFord: In another headline: Ford to Create Thousands of Factory Jobs, Invest $3.7 Billion in EV, Gas-Engine ProductionThe 3.7 multibillion-dollar investment will go to retooling factories to build newer versions of gas-engine models, such as the Ford Ranger pickup and Mustang sports car, the auto maker said Thursday. 55,000 Union auto workers. In Closing; NFLX Stranger Things viewing. 286m vs Briderton and MoneyHeist ~200m. Johnny Depp $10m. Hunter Biden. Texts. Viewer discretion advised! 

We probably could use some reasonable gun laws that 80% of Americans agree on.  In fact, 80% of Americans would agree on a lot of things, but our politicians are so corrupted by the far left and right, its impossible to get anything done! Huge rally this week. Stocks up 4% in 4 days. Layoffs at PayPal, Netflix,  Robinhood and Bolt (one click startup payment company)Hiring Freeze/slowing at Meta, Uber, Coinbase, Microsoft, Nvidia.  Fed minutes indicated will still increase 0.5% in June and July. But then open to “wait and see”.Housing market: Mortgage rates up: 2.5% to 5%+ Home Sales are down Jan to April. 6.5m to 5.6. 15% down. Spring/summer should be up!? Single family starts lowest since Oct 2021. Mortgage purchase applications slowest since May 2020. Homebuilder sentiment lowest since June 2020. Energy. Gasoline up 80%. Crypto is not a hedge: Crypto market cap has fallen from $2.3t to 1.3t. $4.5b fund at Andreeson Horowitz. A16zMy Luna is $0. BTC. Down 56%ETH. Down 60%. DCA in still recommended. Apple holding up well in the News. $144, down 21% YtD. was down 25%Flat iPhone sales. 220m, same as 2021. Expected 240. Tormer Tesla Autopilot software engineer who left to join Apple's secretive car project last year, has left Apple to join Luminar.Lidar vs. AI real cameras. Tesla showing different types of cars, doors open, garbage cans, cones, traffic lights…insane! Tesla: Diner3700 charging stations globally.Elon committed to buying Twitter.  Netflix: Netflix Games suck. Stranger Things. Can it have a Squid Game effect? Its been 3 years and only show streamed/seen more was final episode of GoT. In Closing: Ricky Gervais on Netflix. Tesla Charger competition. https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-supercharger-competition-race-11653581057?mod=hp_featst_pos5

The US is in a recession. The Fed is not helping as they are driving consumer confidence and therefore spending into the ground. Its a Fed-induced recession. Regardless, the markets needed this correction. Its healthy and if you have money this is the time to make a lot of money over the next decade.  Tech stocks and "Generals" have now been shot. Apple is down 25%. Google, Amazon, Microsoft all down over 25%.  Consumer defensive: Target, Costco, Walmart, Koels, all down! Netflix is making major strategic adjustments. About time! Tesla/Twitter....so much going on. I play some clips of Elon talking about (1) why he's buying Twitter. Surprise, it all sounds reasonable and rational. and (2) why Tesla is like 10 startups in one company. Have a great weekend! 

We are in the 3rd major drawdown of the 2000's.  2000: DotCom Crash2008: Great Recession2020: Great Reset. Elon is buying Twitter. The far left is pissed. But now he's got backing by big private equity and Larry Ellison. He also says he will take Twitter public again in 3 years or so. Tesla is killing it. Growing 50% year over year at a scale never before seen in history. Netflix completely dropped the ball. Raised prices too fast and programming is not good enough. Down 72%. So many tech companies down 50 - 90%. There will be more carnage.  Recommendations: get outside. It's summer. 

I think Covid is finally over, at least in US. We are so tired of it. Time to move on. Markets are wild this quarter. Down 15%, then up 10% to be down only 6%!?  Tesla is tearing it up in Austin with their Cyber Rodeo today/tomorrow. Elon to speak tonight. So many catalysts in their business including Tesla Austin, Berlin and Shanghai expansion.  Elon joined Twitter board. This will be interesting and will be good for free speech in the "public square" Netflix is too woke and not taking enough risks. Stock down 50%. Unlikely to recover anytime soon. They don't even care about 140m potential subscribers in Russia. Pinterest is dying to get noticed, so said they will start suppressing climate change misinformation. Good for them. Masters golf tournament this weekend! 

Ukraine. Markets are getting smashed, but we're not in recession...Yet.  State of the Union. Covid super spreader event...nope...they told us its over! Yay. Is Biden a flip-flopper?  Overall boring, like all of them.  Covid is over; at least our politicians say so. Tesla is KING.  

Serious and tragic situation with Ukraine and Russia. This needs to end soon. Markets officially went into "correction" territory this week, which means they're down 10% from high. This could be a wild year! Block and Etsy are great examples of growing high potential companies that got punished by 60-70% off their high. They both reported strong earnings on Thursday and rebounded sharply...though no where near where they were! Tesla in the news. Ford in the news: CEO says it will be VERY difficult to compete head-to-head with Tesla! Wow! I loved Despicable Me 1 & 2.  Embarrassed to say I'd never seen them before! 

Markets are crashing in general, but worse if you're in high-tech.  Just got to weather this out. If you have cash, keep buying slowly.  You'll look back in 2 years and realize it was a hell of a deal. War in Ukraine, supply chain and stupid Fed policy/communications not helping at all. Good news is no fundamental structural issues in economy. EV's. Government continues to attack Tesla, arguably the most innovative and climate change important company in the World. Ford looks to get Tesla like valuations....oh but no software folks there. California just held the super bowl with 100k fans in attendance un-masked, but somehow Dictator Newsom still says we're in a "state of emergency"...going on 2 years now. San Francisco recalled 3 SF School Board members. Last city to open schools, but they spent all their time debating what to rename 44 schools, including Lincoln and Washington. Finally, some sanity...we want our politicians to focus on things that actually affect us...duh!! Neil Young back on Spotify...thank goodness...I was going mad without his playlist. 

The markets are absolutely crazy nuts volatile. If you miss earnings your stock is hammered. The Generals: Apple, Microsoft, Google, Facebook, Amazon. These are the barometers of our economy and doing well. Our economy is in great position. We just need to ensure that the Fed and Biden policies don't cause a consumer confidence led recession. Tesla is again at odds with the Administration, but at least they said the "T" word. Why would you ever bet against the guy colonizing Mars. Covid: After 2 years everyone is getting Covid fatigue and the Democrats recognize this finally and are slowly pivoting policy in an attempt to save themselves in the mid-terms. Who said this: "I held my breath when I took my mask off". These guys think we are so stupid! Insulting and ridiculous! 

Normally I put out Pod on Friday, but couldn't wait this time around...too much going on. The markets are resetting and hopefully done! The Fed provided guidance today and it was good. Microsoft (2nd biggest company in world) released earnings and it was spectacular. Need the same from Apple.  Tesla Earnings! Unbelievable and one of the most interesting earnings calls ever! Elon was on. I play some clips. Gotta figure out how to buy me some more Tesla. He says full-self driving is biggest software feature in history and Tesla bot (Optimus) will eventually deliver more revenue than auto! And other shell-shockers! Bill Ackman, famed hedge fund manager buys NFLX! OMG should we follow. NFLX is down ~50% and is poised to grow over the next decade.  Neil Young said its either him or Rogan on Spotify. Guess who spotify chose. 

A little emotionally drained today from turmoil in markets, but wanted to get it out to tell the NFLX and markets story while fresh. Worst start to a year in decades.  Bleeding over until Monday. We may see more storm and darkness before the light. Dear Netflix: You must prioritize sub growth. Peloton hiring McKenzie and slowing/haulting production...yeah that's a bad sign!