Podcasts about economists

Think Like an Economist’s Justin Wolfers joins us to talk about the increasingly worrying state of the U.S. economy. The Miami Herald’s Julie K. Brown stops by to discuss the Epstein files—and the critical pieces that have yet to be put together.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Widespread financial meltdown continued again today, slamming crypto, silver, and private credit particularly hard. After what appeared to be an early morning rally, it didn't last as a range of more-than-disappointing labor data came flooding to the tape. The narrative of a 2026 pick up is not being picked up anywhere other than mainstream Economists.Eurodollar University Money and Macro Analysis

We are excited to welcome Joe Davis for this episode, currently Vanguard's Global Chief Economist and Global Head of the Investment Strategy Group. Many of you likely know various iterations of the Vanguard story, but most of the professionals I know do not know how big a research team they have.  Joe has a big influence on the company because he is also chairs the firm's Strategic Asset Allocation Committee. Ok, that was exhausting listing all of his titles, he is a busy person. Before that, he was still busy; he earned his M.A. and Ph.D at Duke University and is a graduate of the Advanced Management Program at the Wharton School of U Penn. Joe is a frequent keynote speaker and currently serves on the editorial boards of the Journal of Portfolio Management and the Journal of Fixed Income. In this episode, we are all over the place (which is normal), ranging from Vanguard's 50+ year history as a disruptor, to how many CFA charter holders are at Vanguard now (hint: a lot), their vast and under the radar research group, new CEO Salim Ramji, patents that Vanguard created in ETF space, the breakdown of active vs. passive funds in their lineup (which surprises many) and Joe's new book on AI. This was a great segue into the markets, with the impact of AI, Fed independence being potentially disrupted, a new multi-polar world, expected returns, potential market scenarios, and more. Today's hosts are Steve Curley, CFA (Co-Managing Principal, 55 North Private Wealth) & co-host Chris Cannon, CFA (CIO/Principal, FirsTrust). Please enjoy the episode. You can follow us on Twitter & LinkedIn or at investorsfirstpodcast.com

Americans have been deeply dissatisfied with the economy for many years, even as standard metrics continue to show strength and prosperity. This gap between popular and elite thinking has helped populism surge and sparked intense debates about whether old economic assumptions—and policies—need wholesale revision.Find the episode transcript and streaming audio, and get the show direct to your inbox, hereFollow Jon on X: https://x.com/JonKBateman   

Our Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach and Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen discuss the path for U.S. interest rates after the nomination of Kevin Warsh for next Fed chair.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy. Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist. Matthew Hornbach: Today we'll be talking about the Federal Open Market Committee meeting that occurred last week.It's Thursday, February 5th at 8:30 am in New York.So, Mike, last week we had the first Federal Open Market Committee meeting of 2026. What were your general impressions from the meeting? And how did it compare to what you had thought going in? Michael Gapen: Well, Matt, I think that the main question for markets was how hawkish a hold or how dovish a hold would this be. As you know, it was widely expected the Fed would be on hold. The incoming data had been fairly solid. Inflation wasn't all that concerning, and most of the employment data suggested things had stabilized. So, it was clear they were going to pause. The question was would they pause or would they be on pause, right? And in our view, it was more of a dovish hold. And by that, it suggests to us, or they suggested to us, I should say, that they still have an easing bias and rates should generally move lower over time. So, that really was the key takeaway for me. Would they signal a prolonged pause and perhaps suggest that they might be done with the easing cycle? Or would they say, yes, we've stopped for now, but we still expect to cut rates later? Perhaps when inflation comes down and therefore kind of retain a dovish bias or an easing bias in the policy rate path. So, to me, that was the main takeaway. Matthew Hornbach: Of course, as we all know, there are supposed to be some personnel changes on the committee this year. And Chair Powell was asked several questions to try to get at the future of this committee and what he himself was going to do personally. What was your impression of his response and what were the takeaways from that part of the press conference? Michael Gapen: Well, clearly, he's been reluctant to, say, pre-announce what he may do when his term is chair ends in May. But his term as a governor extends into 2028. So, he has options. He could leave normally that's what happens. But he could also stay and he's never really made his intentions clear on that part. I think for maybe personal or professional reasons. But he has his own; he has his own reasons and, and that's fine. And I do think the recent subpoena by the DOJ has changed the calculus in that. At least my own view is that it makes it more likely that he stays around. It may be easier for him to act in response to that subpoena by being on staff. It's a request for additional information; he needs access to that information. I think you could construct a reasonable scenario under which, ‘Well, I have to see this through, therefore, I may stay around.' But maybe he hasn't come to that conclusion yet. And then stepping back, that just complicates the whole picture in the sense that we now know the administration has put forward Kevin Warsh as the new Fed chair. Will he be replacing the seat that Jay Powell currently sits in? Will he be replacing the seat that Stephen Myron is sitting in? So yes, we have a new name being put forward, but it's not exactly clear where that slot will be; and what the composition of the committee will look like. Matthew Hornbach: Well, you beat me to the punch on mentioning Kevin Warsh… Michael Gapen: I kind of assumed that's where you were going. Matthew Hornbach: It was going to be my next question. I'm curious as to what you think that means for Fed policy later this year, if anything. And what it might mean more medium term? Michael Gapen: Yeah. Well, first of all, congratulations to Mr. Warsh on the appointment. In terms of what we think it means for the outlook for the Fed's reaction function and interest rate policy, we doubt that there will be a material change in the Fed's reaction function. His previous public remarks don't suggest his views on interest rate policy are substantively outside the mainstream, or at least certainly the collective that's already in the FOMC. Some people would prefer not to ease. The majority of the committee still sees a couple more rate cuts ahead of them. Warsh is generally aligned with that, given his public remarks. But then also all the reserve bank presidents have been renominated. There's an ongoing Supreme Court case about the ability of the administration to fire Lisa Cook. If that is not successful, then Kevin Warsh will arrive in an FOMC where there's 16 other people who all get a say. So, the chair's primary responsibility is to build a consensus; to herd the cats, so to speak. To communicate to markets and communicate to the public. So, if Mr. Warsh wanted to deviate substantially from where the committee was, he would have to build a consensus to do that. So, we think, at least in the near term, the reaction function won't change. It'll be driven by the data, whether the labor market holds up, whether inflation, decelerates as expected. So, we don't look for material change. Now you also asked about the medium term. I do think where his views differ, at least with respect to current Fed policy is on the size of the Fed's balance sheet and its footprint in financial markets. So, he has argued over time for a much smaller balance sheet. He's called the Fed's balance sheet bloated. He has said that it creates distortions in markets, which mean interest rates could be higher than they otherwise would be. And so, I think if there is a substantive change in Fed policy going forward, it could be there on the balance sheet. But what I would just say on that is it'll likely take a lot of coordination with Treasury. It will likely take changes in rules, regulations, the supervisory landscape. Because if you want to reduce the balance sheet further without creating volatility in financial markets, you have to find a way to reduce bank demand for it. So, this will take time, it'll take study, it'll take patience. I wouldn't look for big material changes right out of the box. So Matt, what I'd like to do is, if I could flip it back to you, Warsh was certainly one of the expected candidates, right? So, his name is not a surprise. But as we knew financial markets, one day we're thinking it'd be one candidate. The next day it'd be thinking at the next it was somebody else. How did you see markets reacting to the announcement of Mr. Warsh? For the next Fed share, and then maybe put that in context of where markets were coming out of the last FOMC meeting. Matthew Hornbach: Yeah, so the markets that moved the most were not the traditional, very large macro markets like the interest rate marketplace or the foreign exchange market. The markets that moved the most were the prediction markets. These newer markets that offer investors the ability to wager on different outcomes for a whole variety of events around the world. But when it comes to the implications of a Kevin Warsh led Fed – for the bigger macro markets like interest rates and currencies, the question really comes down to how? If the Fed's balance sheet policies are going to take a while to implement, those are not going to have an immediate effect, at least not an effect that is easily seen with the human eye. But it's other types of policy change in terms of his communication policy, for example. One of the points that you raised in your recent note, Mike, was how Kevin Warsh favored less communication than perhaps some of the recent, Federal Open Market Committees had with the public. And so, if there is some kind of a retrenchment from the type of over-communication to the marketplace, from either committee members or non-voters that could create a bit more volatility in the marketplace. Of course, the Fed has been one of the central banks that does not like to surprise the markets in terms of its monetary policy making. And so, that contrasts with other central banks in the G10. For example, the Swiss National Bank tends to surprise quite a lot. The Reserve Bank of Australia tends to surprise markets. More often, certainly than the Fed does. So, to the extent that there's some change in communication strategy going forward that could lead to more volatile interest rate in currency markets. And that then could cause investors to demand more risk premium to invest in those markets. If you previously were comfortable owning a longer duration Treasury security because you felt very comfortable with the future path of Fed policy, then a Kevin Warsh led Fed – if it decides to change the communication strategy – could naturally lead investors to demand more risk premium in their investments. And that, of course, would lead to a steeper U.S. Treasury curve, all else equal. So that would be one of the main effects that I could see happen in markets as a result of some potential changes that the Fed may consider going forward. So, Mike, with that said, this was the first FOMC meeting of the year, and the next meeting arrives in March. I guess we'll just have to wait between now and then to see if the Fed is on hold for a longer period of time or whether or not the data convinced them to move as soon as the March meeting. Thanks for taking time to talk, Mike. Michael Gapen: Great speaking with you, Matt. Matthew Hornbach: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Steve discusses whether Republicans are being transparent about the state of the economy, especially as consumers continue to feel the impact of rising prices. Trump's new Fed pick, Kevin Warsh, may also face pressure to lower interest rates to 2%.

Steve discusses whether Republicans are being transparent about the state of the economy, especially as consumers continue to feel the impact of rising prices. Trump's new Fed pick, Kevin Warsh, may also face pressure to lower interest rates to 2%.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The first year of the new Trump administration has been a chance to test a slew of economists' conventional wisdom — on tariffs, on markets, on trade alliances. Kent Gardner has been an economist for decades, and we wanted to know: has anything in the past year surprised you? Has anything caused you to reconsider a long-held belief? Vice President Vance says economists are out-of-touch eggheads. We examine that claim, too. In studio:Kent Gardner, former chief economist at the Center for Governmental Research---Connections is supported by listeners like you. Head to our donation page to become a WXXI member today, support the show, and help us close the gap created by the rescission of federal funding.---Connections airs every weekday from noon-2 p.m. Join the conversation with questions or comments by phone at 1-844-295-TALK (8255) or 585-263-9994, email, Facebook or Twitter. Connections is also livestreamed on the WXXI News YouTube channel each day. You can watch live or access previous episodes here.---Do you have a story that needs to be shared? Pitch your story to Connections.

Ryan's site: RyanVeli.comShort guest bioRyan Veli is a returning researcher and deep-dive analyst known for connecting dots across AI, surveillance systems, and the bigger geopolitical chessboard. He's often described as a highly intuitive teacher with experience in analysis, risk assessment, and systems thinking—focused on practical strategy, sovereignty, and how communities can adapt in a rapidly shifting world.Episode description (YouTube / Rumble / Spreaker-ready)Today at 11:15 AM Eastern I'm joined by returning guest Ryan Veli for a deep dive into the AI threat, the economist/technocrat takeover, and the way geopolitics + “managed” current events may be steering the public into a new control architecture.We're getting into:What “AI governance” really means (and who benefits)Economics as a control system: incentives, scarcity narratives, and engineered dependencyGeopolitics as theater vs. geopolitics as strategySurveillance, censorship, and the normalization of complianceWhat people can do right now to stay grounded, sovereign, and informedGuest links:Ryan: RyanVeli.comHashtags (copy/paste)#TypicalSkepticPodcast #RyanVeli #AI #ArtificialIntelligence #Technocracy #Geopolitics #CurrentEvents #ConspiracyResearch #DeepState #Surveillance #Censorship #DigitalID #SocialCredit #EconomicReset #CentralBanking #CBDC #InformationWar #PsychologicalWarfare #Propaganda #Sovereignty #SystemsThinking #RiskAssessment #FutureOfHumanity #TruthSeeker5197Tags (YouTube tags field)Ryan Veli, Typical Skeptic Podcast, AI threat, technocracy, geopolitics, economist takeover, current events analysis, deep state, surveillance state, censorship, digital ID, social credit system, CBDC, central banking, fourth industrial revolution, information war, psyop, propaganda, sovereignty, alternative mediaTypical Skeptic Podcast Links and Affiliates:Support the Mission:

In this segment, Michael Austin, a Kansas economist, joins the show to discuss the proposed contribution of local dollars to the Chiefs stadium and practice facility projects. He shares his concerns about the long-term risks of pledging future sales tax revenue to pay off the Starbonds. Michael questions how the municipalities will manage the potential loss of revenue for public services and infrastructure costs. He also highlights the lack of fiscal flexibility and the potential tax implications of zoning the land as agricultural. This conversation delves into the economic aspects of the proposal and its potential impact on the local community.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In the debut episode of The Economist Next Door, host Paul Mueller (Senior Research Fellow at AIER) sits down with Samuel Gregg, President of the American Institute for Economic Research, to peel back the layers of modern economic debate. Moving beyond the dry jargon of spreadsheets and data points, Mueller and Gregg explore why the battle for free markets has shifted from a technical argument to a deeply moral one. They discuss the rising tide of "collectivism" appearing on both ends of the political spectrum and why the "everyman" should care about the philosophical foundations of trade, sound money, and individual liberty.

From Ancient Egypt to Leibniz... Brand‑new interview out with Robert Spekkens of the Perimeter Institute, one of the sharpest minds working on quantum foundations. In 2004, he constructed a classical toy theory where your maximum knowledge is always incomplete—and out popped the no-cloning theorem, teleportation, and interference effects Feynman deemed impossible to reproduce classically. Spekkens compares our situation to Egyptian hieroglyphs before Champollion: a category mistake where we treat quantum states as descriptions of reality when they actually describe knowledge of reality. If you're interested in the topics above, you'll love this podcast. As a listener of TOE you can get a special 20% off discount to The Economist and all it has to offer! Visit https://www.economist.com/toe SUPPORT: - Support me on Substack: https://curtjaimungal.substack.com/subscribe - Support me on Crypto: https://commerce.coinbase.com/checkout/de803625-87d3-4300-ab6d-85d4258834a9 - Support me on PayPal: https://www.paypal.com/donate?hosted_button_id=XUBHNMFXUX5S4 JOIN MY SUBSTACK (Personal Writings): https://curtjaimungal.substack.com LISTEN ON SPOTIFY: https://open.spotify.com/show/4gL14b92xAErofYQA7bU4e TIMESTAMPS: - 00:00:00 - Defining Quantum Innovation - 00:06:40 - Realism vs. Empiricism - 00:12:12 - Leibnizian Methodological Principle - 00:23:40 - Causal Explanations of Correlations - 00:30:24 - Epistemic Quantum States - 00:41:00 - Foil Theory Methodology - 00:54:00 - Causal Influence vs. Signaling - 01:07:27 - Thermodynamics and Ignorance - 01:15:00 - Conceptual Understanding in Physics - 01:21:00 - Philosophy of Physics Utility - 01:30:00 - Speckins' Toy Theory Origins - 01:40:13 - Perimeter Institute's Ambitious DNA - 01:52:00 - PBR Theorem Implications - 02:05:40 - Ontic Separability Assumptions - 02:17:40 - Hieroglyphs and Category Mistakes - 02:29:00 - Revolutionizing Modern Physics - 02:37:20 - Unscrambling Causation and Inference LINKS MENTIONED: Journals, papers, books: - https://www.rwspekkens.com - https://pirsa.org/speaker/Robert-Spekkens - https://arxiv.org/pdf/2507.01122 - https://arxiv.org/pdf/quant-ph/0401052 - https://arxiv.org/abs/0706.2661 - https://arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/0406166 - https://arxiv.org/pdf/2207.11779 - https://amazon.com/dp/1108066488?tag=toe08-20 - https://www.jstor.org/stable/687269 - https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/qm-copenhagen/ - https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/identity-indiscernible/ - https://www.fourmilab.ch/etexts/einstein/specrel/specrel.pdf - https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/spacetime-holearg/ - https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/mathematics/hidden-variable-theory - https://www.nature.com/articles/299802a0 - https://arxiv.org/pdf/2011.01286 - https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/BF02058098 - https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.07161 - https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/engineering/maxwells-equation - https://www.einstein-online.info/en/spotlight/equivalence_principle/ - https://perimeterinstitute.ca/ - https://amazon.com/dp/9810241054?tag=toe08-20 - https://journals.aps.org/pr/pdf/10.1103/PhysRev.47.777 - https://arxiv.org/abs/1111.3328 - https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/rosetta-stone-hieroglyphs-champollion-decipherment-egypt-180980834/ - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0160932707000282 Videos: - https://youtu.be/gEK4-XtMwro - https://youtu.be/YWbjI-QsH2E - https://youtu.be/fU1bs5o3nss - https://youtu.be/NKOd8imBa2s - https://youtu.be/6I2OhmVWLMs - https://youtu.be/Tghl6aS5A3M - https://youtu.be/HIoviZe14pY - https://youtu.be/bprxrGaf0Os - https://youtu.be/4MjNuJK5RzM - https://youtu.be/c8iFtaltX-s - https://youtu.be/9AoRxtYZrZo - https://youtu.be/uOKOodQXjhc - https://youtu.be/3mhctWlXyV8 - https://youtu.be/gsSJPLX-BTA - https://youtu.be/FFW14zSYiFY - https://youtu.be/HhWWlJFwTqs Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

We're going to talk about the Epstein Files, and what may be the new sex trafficking elite club of rapists... So stay tuned for Monday's Gaslit Nation Salon at 4pm ET. Oh, and Andrea ran into another fascist in New York City. That's two in one week! In this clip from last week's salon, she shares the story of living Dorothy Thompson's 1941 essay, "Who Goes Nazi?" The full recording is available on Patreon.com/Gaslit along with the link to join us this Monday. Agonize then organize and socialize. The news cycle is designed to exhaust you, but you don't have to face the autocracy alone. We built a resilience community for truth-tellers, and we want you in it.  Join us today at 4pm ET for our Gaslit Nation Salon, a space to strategize, vent, and connect with a community of listeners just as horrified as you. Find the link to join us by Zoom, wherever you are, at Patreon.com/Gaslit. Thank you to everyone who supports the show -- we could not make Gaslit Nation without you!  Photo image from The Economist. It features fascist art used by the Trump administration to promote recruitment for their tax-payer funded ethnic cleansing through the Department of Homeland Security: https://www.economist.com/insider/the-insider/the-ice-test-how-the-killing-of-two-citizens-in-minneapolis-will-shape-american-democracy

oday on the show, federal immigration raids and the killing of two civilians in Minneapolis have many around the world wondering what exactly is happening in the United States. Fareed speaks with Zanny Minton Beddoes, The Economist's editor-in-chief, and Christopher Caldwell, conservative author and New York Times contributing opinion writer, about the global reaction to Trump 2.0. GUESTS: Zanny Minton Beddoes (@zannymb); Christopher Caldwell; Christopher Johnson; Meredith Whittaker (@mer__edith); Daniel Skovronsky Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Can AI do my job? How should employees and bosses be using the technology right now? And how should all of us prepare for the future?Andrew Palmer returns for a third season of Boss Class. This time it's all about AI. In the first episode, he starts introducing AI into his daily work routines, and receives a nasty shock.To listen to the full series, subscribe to Economist Podcasts+.https://subscribenow.economist.com/podcasts-plusIf you're already a subscriber to The Economist, you have full access to all our shows as part of your subscription. For more information about how to access Economist Podcasts+, please visit our FAQs page or watch our video explaining how to link your account.In this episode, Andrew asks Claude, a generative AI programme, to write his management column for him. You can find Andrew's column here and Claude's version here. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Can AI do my job? How should employees and bosses be using the technology right now? And how should all of us prepare for the future?Andrew Palmer returns for a third season of Boss Class. This time it's all about AI. In the first episode, he starts introducing AI into his daily work routines, and receives a nasty shock.To listen to the full series, subscribe to Economist Podcasts+.https://subscribenow.economist.com/podcasts-plusIf you're already a subscriber to The Economist, you have full access to all our shows as part of your subscription. For more information about how to access Economist Podcasts+, please visit our FAQs page or watch our video explaining how to link your account.In this episode, Andrew asks Claude, a generative AI programme, to write his management column for him. You can find Andrew's column here and Claude's version here. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Guest: Padraic Scanlan. Scanlan explains the Victorian view of the famine through the lens of economist Thomas Malthus, who believed the "generous" potato encouraged overpopulation. He notes that British policymakers viewed the famine as a natural, inevitable correction and feared that providing aid would discourage the Irish poor from developing a "civilized" work ethic.

Reporter, Joe Caulfield speaks to an Iranian woman living in Dublin about finally making contact with her brother there. Gregg Carlstrom, Middle East Correspondent with The Economist, discusses rising tensions in the Middle East between the US and Iran.

A conversation about the potential and limits of AI agents with the co-founder of Sierra, an agentic customer-service company. Bret Taylor, who is also the chairman of OpenAI, tells Andrew Palmer about the imperfections of the technology, the competition between model-makers and vendors, and how he uses AI to manage.To listen to the full series, subscribe to Economist Podcasts+. If you're already a subscriber to The Economist, you have full access to all our shows as part of your subscription. For more information about how to access Economist Podcasts+, please visit our FAQs page or watch our video explaining how to link your account.This episode is also available to watch on The Economist's YouTube channel. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

How should employees and bosses be using the technology right now? And how should all of us prepare for the future?Andrew Palmer returns for a third season of Boss Class. This time it's all about AI. In the first episode, he starts introducing AI into his daily work routines, and receives a nasty shock.To listen to the full series, subscribe to Economist Podcasts+.If you're already a subscriber to The Economist, you have full access to all our shows as part of your subscription. For more information about how to access Economist Podcasts+, please visit our FAQs page or watch our video explaining how to link your account.In this episode, Andrew asks Claude, a generative AI programme, to write his management column for him. You can find Andrew's column here and Claude's version here. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Willy was joined once again by Dr. Peter Linneman for The Most Insightful Hour in CRE, from the stage at IREI's VIP Americas Conference.   Together, they unpacked the forces shaping today's market, including employment trends, inflation, rent growth, housing affordability and supply, AI's impact on jobs, and Peter's predictions for rate cuts, oil prices, tariffs, and more. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Something New!  For HR teams who discuss this podcast in their team meetings, we've created a discussion starter PDF to help guide your conversation. Download it here https://goodmorninghr.com/EP237  In episode 237, Coffey and DeDe Church discuss recent news items about how shifting economic conditions, technology, and leadership gaps are reshaping the employment landscape.  They discuss the realities of a “low-hire, low-fire” labor market; dehumanizing hiring processes and AI-driven recruiting tools; challenges facing early-career workers and liberal arts graduates; emerging roles created by artificial intelligence; the growing importance of soft skills like problem solving and communication; workforce restructuring, layoffs, and job hugging; employee disengagement and the great detachment; why strong frontline workers often struggle as supervisors; the risks of promoting without leadership training; transparency, feedback, and promotion decisions; and how kindness, accountability, and continuous feedback drive engagement.  Good Morning, HR is brought to you by Imperative—Bulletproof Background Checks. For more information about our commitment to quality and excellent customer service, visit us at https://imperativeinfo.com.   If you are an HRCI or SHRM-certified professional, this episode of Good Morning, HR has been pre-approved for three quarters of a recertification credit. To obtain the recertification information for this episode, visit https://goodmorninghr.com.   Media mentioned in this podcast:  From AI bubble fears to the job market's ‘Great Freeze': Economists answer your biggest questions about 2026  Private-Sector Hiring Turned Positive in December After November Losses   Private Hiring Sank in November, ADP Says  US Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Outlook Handbook: Fastest Growing Occupations  The 2026 Job Market Outlook: Where the Jobs Are  Economists Are Studying the Slowing Job Market—and Feeling It Themselves  When Good Frontline Workers Make Bad Supervisors  Is Your Leadership Style Too Nice? The Friendship Recession: The Lost Art of Connecting Use Situation-Behavior-Impact (SBI)™ to Understand Intent  About our Guest:  DeDe Church is an attorney, employee relations counselor, workplace and University investigator, and nationally recognized trainer with more than 30 years of experience. She has trained thousands of employees and managers on how to create a productive, respectful culture for clients ranging from Fortune 50 companies to her favorite local pizza shop. Known for her humor and practicality, DeDe is often invited and then re-invited to deliver her high-energy workshops at distinguished conferences and to create videos for employee onboarding and annual training.  As an expert investigator, DeDe relies upon a depth of knowledge to find the facts without causing unnecessary disturbances. Witnesses often say they feel at ease when talking with her because of her approachable nature. In addition, DeDe is often retained to review investigation procedures and to train in-house HR and University professionals on investigation best practices. In recognition of her skills, DeDe has been retained to testify as an expert witness in employment cases more than 20 times by organizations including Uber, BP, and MD Anderson Cancer Center.  DeDe is a former Senior Assistant Attorney General for the State of Texas in the Civil Rights/General Litigation Division. During almost seven years there, she advised dozens of state agencies on the proper response to employee complaints, represented the State in over 30 trials involving discrimination in the workplace, and successfully argued before the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals and the Texas Supreme Court. DeDe received the prestigious Presidential Citation from the President of the Texas State Bar in recognition of outstanding service to the citizens of Texas. Her Bachelor of Arts degree is from Louisiana State University, magna cum laude, and she received a Doctorate of Jurisprudence with Honors from the University of North Carolina School of Law in Chapel Hill, North Carolina.  DeDe Church can be reached at www.dedechurch.com https://www.linkedin.com/in/dede-wilburn-church-a71b748/  About Mike Coffey:  Mike Coffey is an entrepreneur, licensed private investigator, business strategist, HR consultant, and registered yoga teacher. In 1999, he founded Imperative, a background investigations and due diligence firm helping risk-averse clients make well-informed decisions about the people they involve in their business. Imperative delivers in-depth employment background investigations, know-your-customer and anti-money laundering compliance, and due diligence investigations to more than 300 risk-averse corporate clients across the US, and, through its PFC Caregiver & Household Screening brand, many more private estates, family offices, and personal service agencies. Imperative has been named a Best Places to Work, the Texas Association of Business' small business of the year, and is accredited by the Professional Background Screening Association.  Mike shares his insight from 25+ years of HR-entrepreneurship on the Good Morning, HR podcast, where each week he talks to business leaders about bringing people together to create value for customers, shareholders, and community. Mike has been rec...

AI is changing how we work. It's turning us all into managers. Be a good one.The Economist's management columnist, Andrew Palmer, takes on the bots in the third season of Boss Class. From cloning to coding, agents to entry-level jobs, he tackles the threat head on and figures out how to turn anxiety into opportunity. Along the way he meets bulls and bears and the people who can help you to master management in the age of AI.Full Season 3 out 29th January 2026.To listen to the full series, subscribe to Economist Podcasts+.https://subscribenow.economist.com/podcasts-plusIf you're already a subscriber to The Economist, you have full access to all our shows as part of your subscription. For more information about how to access Economist Podcasts+, please visit our FAQs page or watch our video explaining how to link your account. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Bob Murphy is a Senior Fellow at the Mises Institute and Chief Economist at Infineon. In this conversation, we discuss Federal Reserve policy, tariffs, and what's really happening in the U.S. economy. We break down the housing market, inflation, and what it all means for your wallet—plus Bob's Austrian economics perspective on gold, bitcoin, and the road ahead.=======================BitcoinIRA: Buy, sell, and swap 80+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Take 3 minutes to open your account & get connected to a team of IRA specialists that will guide you through every step of the process. Go to https://bitcoinira.com/pomp/ to earn up to $1,000 in rewards.=======================As markets shift, headlines break, and interest rates swing, one thing stays true — opportunity is everywhere. At Arch Public, we help you do more than just buy and hold. Yes, our dynamic accumulation algorithms are built for long-term investors… but where we really shine? Our arbitrage algos — designed to farm volatility and turbocharge your core positions. The best part of Arch Public's products is they are free! Yes, you heard that right, try Arch Public for free! Take advantage of wild moves in assets like $SOL, $SUI, and $DOGE, and use them to stack more Bitcoin — completely hands-free. Arch Public is already a preferred partner with Coinbase, Kraken, Gemini, and Robinhood, and our team is here to help you build smarter in any market. Visit Arch Public today, at https://www.archpublic.com, your portfolio will thank you.=======================0:00 – Intro1:52 – Why gold has outperformed bitcoin5:06 – Fed vs White House: power, politics, & “independence”17:03 – Tariffs, trade deficits, & inflation outlook22:06 – Stablecoins: why they matter & key risks28:34 – Economic data: what to trust?

AI is changing how we work. It's turning us all into managers. Be a good one.The Economist's management columnist, Andrew Palmer, takes on the bots in the third season of Boss Class. From cloning to coding, agents to entry-level jobs, he tackles the threat head on and figures out how to turn anxiety into opportunity. Along the way he meets bulls and bears and the people who can help you to master management in the age of AI.Full Season 3 out 29th January 2026.To listen to the full series, subscribe to Economist Podcasts+.https://subscribenow.economist.com/podcasts-plusIf you're already a subscriber to The Economist, you have full access to all our shows as part of your subscription. For more information about how to access Economist Podcasts+, please visit our FAQs page or watch our video explaining how to link your account. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

To make good creative work, you'll inevitably do a lot of bad work along the way. So building a thriving creative practice relies on showing up and doing the work consistently, whether you feel inspired or not. And we can get trapped into thinking that if only we had the perfect space, or the best pen, or right notebook, it would all be easier. This is a preview of a premium episode. To listen to the full interview, visit: https://designbetterpodcast.com/p/austin-kleon But our guest today, Austin Kleon, has built a remarkable creative practice around a deceptively simple toolkit: index cards, newspapers, scissors, and glue. He's the bestselling author of Steal Like an Artist, Show Your Work, Keep Going, and Don't Call it Art. What makes Austin's approach so valuable is how he's translated these ideas into a sustainable daily practice that's lasted over a decade. In our conversation, Austin shares why he starts every day writing in his diary before he picks up the phone, how constraints (time, space and materials) actually unlock creativity rather than limiting it, and why the path to doing your best digital work might start with picking up a pen. If you've ever struggled to maintain a creative practice, felt overwhelmed by tools and options, or wondered how to keep going when the work feels hard, this episode is for you. Bio Austin Kleon is the New York Times bestselling author of a trilogy of illustrated books about creativity in the digital age: Steal Like An Artist, Show Your Work!, and Keep Going. He's also the author of Newspaper Blackout, a collection of poems made by redacting the newspaper with a permanent marker. His books have sold over two million copies and have been translated into over 30 languages. He's been featured on NPR's Morning Edition, PBS Newshour, and in The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal. New York Magazine called his work “brilliant,” The Atlantic called him “positively one of the most interesting people on the Internet,” and The New Yorker said his poems “resurrect the newspaper when everybody else is declaring it dead.” He speaks for organizations such as Pixar, Google, Netflix, SXSW, TEDx, Dropbox, Adobe, and The Economist. In previous lives, he worked as a librarian, a web designer, and an advertising copywriter. He lives in Austin, Texas, with his wife and sons. Visit him online at www.austinkleon.com

Freestyle skiers Marielle Thompson and Mikaël Kingsbury are Team Canada's flag bearers for the 2026 Milano-Cortina Olympic Games. Economists expect latest Bank of Canada interest rate to hold at 2.25%. Minnesota Democratic congresswoman Ilhan Omar attacked during town hall, as tensions over ICE operations remain high. Ecuador's Foreign Ministry says ICE agents tried to enter the country's consulate in Minneapolis. A lot of talk about Canadian Unity but some divided meetings with Prime Minister Mark Carney as the country's Premiers gather in Ottawa. Police say it will be harder to solve cold cases after Ancestry.com bans law enforcement from using its services without a court order. 55th Annual JUNO Awards add new category: Latin Music Recording of the Year.

AI is changing how we work. It's turning us all into managers. Be a good one.The Economist's management columnist, Andrew Palmer, takes on the bots in the third season of Boss Class. From cloning to coding, agents to entry-level jobs, he tackles the threat head on and figures out how to turn anxiety into opportunity. Along the way he meets bulls and bears and the people who can help you to master management in the age of AI.Full Season 3 out 29th January 2026.To listen to the full series, subscribe to Economist Podcasts+.https://subscribenow.economist.com/podcasts-plusIf you're already a subscriber to The Economist, you have full access to all our shows as part of your subscription. For more information about how to access Economist Podcasts+, please visit our FAQs page or watch our video explaining how to link your account. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

AI is changing how we work. It's turning us all into managers. Be a good one.The Economist's management columnist, Andrew Palmer, takes on the bots in the third season of Boss Class. From cloning to coding, agents to entry-level jobs, he tackles the threat head on and figures out how to turn anxiety into opportunity. Along the way he meets bulls and bears and the people who can help you to master management in the age of AI.Full Season 3 out 29th January 2026.To listen to the full series, subscribe to Economist Podcasts+.https://subscribenow.economist.com/podcasts-plusIf you're already a subscriber to The Economist, you have full access to all our shows as part of your subscription. For more information about how to access Economist Podcasts+, please visit our FAQs page or watch our video explaining how to link your account. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

It's Tuesday, January 27th, A.D. 2026. This is The Worldview in 5 Minutes heard on 140 radio stations and at www.TheWorldview.com.  I'm Adam McManus. (Adam@TheWorldview.com) By Kevin Swanson Iran Int'l News reports 36,500 protestors killed by Islamic regime As The Worldview reported yesterday, the latest report of the death count for the recent Iranian protests is now at 36,500, according to Iran International News.   (audio of Iranian officials shooting unarmed protestors) This information reportedly comes from Interior Ministry documents. The government carried out 4,000 clashes at various locations around the country over a two-day period earlier in the month. Iran's Health Ministry also revealed that the hospitals in the country performed 13,000 surgeries following the protests. Iran's internet blackout is going into its 19th day today.  Iran International also reports that government officials are still carrying out “extrajudicial killings, deaths under torture, and the systematic mistreatment of detainees and their families.” Several of our sources have reported multiple Christians killed in the conflict.  Communist Chinese president purged military generals China's President and Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping has completed his purge of military generals, beginning with top brass Zhang Youxia and at least 17 other generals, reports NTDTV.com. The Economist called this “the largest political purge of the military's top ranks since Mao Zedong's death in 1976.” Assaults on ICE officers increased by 1,300% in 2025 over 2024 Public protests are increasing in the United States. Last year, the Crowd Counting Consortium counted 10,700 protests in the U.S. That's a 133% increase over 2024. So far this month, there have been 628 protests, the largest of which have centered in Minnesota, Illinois, and California. Disturbingly, the protests have increased in violence. The Department of Homeland Security recently reported a 1,300% increase in assaults against I.C.E. officers in 2025 (over the previous year), and a 3,200% increase in vehicular attacks. Rest assured, where human justice may fail, Ecclesiastes 12:14 assures us that “God shall bring every work into judgment, including every secret thing, whether it be good or whether it be evil.” Shooting death of Minneapolis man sparks gun control debate The January 24th fatal shooting of Alex Pretti in Minneapolis by law enforcement has sparked a debate on gun control. Apparently, the protester was armed at the time of his encounter with the I.C.E. agent. Assistant U.S. Attorney Bill Essayli took to X, commenting that, "If you approach law enforcement with a gun, there is a high likelihood they will be legally justified in shooting you."  However, the pro-gun group, the National Rifle Association, said, "Responsible public voices should be awaiting a full investigation, not making generalizations and demonizing law-abiding citizens.” Plus, Gun Owners for America noted, "The Second Amendment protects Americans' right to bear arms while protesting ‒ a right the federal government must not infringe upon." GOP Rep. Thomas Massie and Barack Obama weigh in on ICE killing GOP U.S. Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky also jumped into the fray. He said, ”Carrying a firearm is not a death sentence;  it's a Constitutionally-protected, God-given right. And, if you don't understand this, you have no business in law enforcement or government." No comment from the liberal media on Mr. Pretti's choice to carry a gun to the protest. Then, former President Barack Obama took to X on Sunday to encourage the American public to “support and draw inspiration from” what he calls “the peaceful protests in Minneapolis.” Satan worshippers thank Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz Speaking of Minnesota, Republican State Representative Pam Altendorf revealed on video a disturbing display recognizing Satan in the state Capitol. ALTENDORF: “As I was leaving my committee meeting today here earlier, I noticed that there is a new display here at the State Capitol, and it's for Governor [Tim] Walz.” The inscription says, “The Democratic Coalition of Satan Worshippers thanks Gov. Tim Walz for not standing in the way of spreading Satanism in the state Capitol building.” Rep. Altendorf concluded with this. ALTENDORF: “Yes, everyone, this is true. I am live, not making this up. You can't make this up. (laughs) I don't know why a governor of a state would want this plaque, but there it is. “The Satan worshipers have thanked Governor Tim Walz, and let me repeat this.  The last line says, ‘Satan has a special place for you.' I'm speechless.” In Exodus 20:3, God revealed to Moses atop Mt. Sinai, “You shall have no other gods before Me.” Charismatic leader accused of “fabricated” prophecies and sexual sin The charismatic church is taking more hits from reports concerning alleged scandalous activities of a homosexual nature. Shawn Bolz was platformed by Bethel over a period of ten years.  Bethel leadership now admits to have continued platforming Bolz despite their knowing of his “fabricated” prophecies and alleged sexual sin, reports CBN News. Multiple Christian news organizations have headlined this new revelation in an ongoing series of scandals in the evangelical/charismatic church involving Bill Hybels, Carl Lentz, Mike Bickel, Brian Houston, T.D. Jakes, Jim and Tammy Faye Bakker, and Jimmy Swaggart.  The deluge of scandals has taken its toll on the nation. Public trust in pastors here is now the lowest in recorded history. According to Lifeway Research, only 27% of Americans say they have a high trust in pastors, down from an average of 56% between 2000 and 2009. Here's a reminder from 1 Corinthians 11:31 and 32. “If we would judge ourselves, we would not be judged.  But when we are judged, we are chastened by the Lord, that we may not be condemned with the world.” Gold and silver prices soar Gold and silver prices continue to soar. Now, $5,100 per ounce for gold, up from $2,600 just a year ago, reports Reuters. And silver today is $110 per pounce, up from $30 a year ago. 36 states consider anti-transgender bills And finally, at last count, 36 state governments are floating 366 bills which would put the brakes on the advance of “transgender rights,” limit the public display of drag queens, and allow religious exemptions for churches, schools, and businesses that are morally opposed to homosexuality and transgenderism. Close And that's The Worldview on this Tuesday, January 27th, in the year of our Lord 2026. Follow us on X or subscribe for free by Spotify, Amazon Music, or by iTunes or email to our unique Christian newscast at www.TheWorldview.com.  I'm Adam McManus (Adam@TheWorldview.com). Seize the day for Jesus Christ.

En la emisión de este lunes de “Me lo dijo Adela”, Kim Armengol analiza los temas más importantes de la agenda nacional e internacional, con entrevistas y mesas de discusión que incluyen al doctor Carlos Heredia sobre el artículo “Power on Paper” de The Economist, el especialista en seguridad Carlos Matienzo sobre la masacre en Salamanca, Guanajuato, y la participación de Damián Zepeda, Arturo Ávila y Juan Zavala comentando violencia, política y encuestas de seguridad. Además, el actor Edgar Ramírez presenta la película “Aún es de noche en Caracas”, que retrata la crisis en Venezuela, mientras la emisión ofrece información deportiva y reportajes de investigación desde Sinaloa y Guanajuato sobre crimen organizado y violencia. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

AI is changing how we work. It's turning us all into managers. Be a good one.The Economist's management columnist, Andrew Palmer, takes on the bots in the third season of Boss Class. From cloning to coding, agents to entry-level jobs, he tackles the threat head on and figures out how to turn anxiety into opportunity. Along the way he meets bulls and bears and the people who can help you to master management in the age of AI.Full Season 3 out 29th January 2026.To listen to the full series, subscribe to Economist Podcasts+.https://subscribenow.economist.com/podcasts-plusIf you're already a subscriber to The Economist, you have full access to all our shows as part of your subscription. For more information about how to access Economist Podcasts+, please visit our FAQs page or watch our video explaining how to link your account. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

AI is changing how we work. It's turning us all into managers. Be a good one.The Economist's management columnist, Andrew Palmer, takes on the bots in the third season of Boss Class. From cloning to coding, agents to entry-level jobs, he tackles the threat head on and figures out how to turn anxiety into opportunity. Along the way he meets bulls and bears and the people who can help you to master management in the age of AI.Full Season 3 out 29th January 2026.To listen to the full series, subscribe to Economist Podcasts+.https://subscribenow.economist.com/podcasts-plusIf you're already a subscriber to The Economist, you have full access to all our shows as part of your subscription. For more information about how to access Economist Podcasts+, please visit our FAQs page or watch our video explaining how to link your account. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

"This is Donald Trump's world and we're all just living in it", so begins the annual issue of The Economist magazine's "The World Ahead in 2026" edition. Every year, we kick off the new year talking to Tom Standage, Deputy Editor of The Economist and Editor of the special issue that gives us a cheat sheet for what we might expect to see in world events. 2026 will continue to be a year of Trump shaking things up and the world trying to adjust. Standage and his team also say 2026 will also be the year of cheaper GLP-1 weight-loss drugs, peak wine consumption and possibly the end of the Commonwealth Games.

AI is changing how we work. It's turning us all into managers. Be a good one.The Economist's management columnist, Andrew Palmer, takes on the bots in the third season of Boss Class. From cloning to coding, agents to entry-level jobs, he tackles the threat head on and figures out how to turn anxiety into opportunity. Along the way he meets bulls and bears and the people who can help you to master management in the age of AI.Full Season 3 out 29th January 2026.To listen to the full series, subscribe to Economist Podcasts+.https://subscribenow.economist.com/podcasts-plusIf you're already a subscriber to The Economist, you have full access to all our shows as part of your subscription. For more information about how to access Economist Podcasts+, please visit our FAQs page or watch our video explaining how to link your account. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Guest host David Common speaks with The New York Times' David Sanger and The Economist's Rob Russo about where the world order is heading after a charged week at the World Economic ForumLegal scholar and former White House antitrust advisor Tim Wu charts how the open internet ideal gave way to platform power, and whether the tide can turn as the AI age dawnsAhead of the federal Conservative Party's national convention, strategists Regan Watts, Kate Harrison and former MP Monte Solberg explore what party needs to do to win back CanadiansRetired nurse Tilda Shalof and emerging nurse Lisa Mochrie share their hopes, fears and prescriptions for the future of their professionDiscover more at https://www.cbc.ca/sunday

AI is changing how we work. It's turning us all into managers. Be a good one. The Economist's management columnist, Andrew Palmer, takes on the bots in the third season of Boss Class. From cloning to coding, agents to entry-level jobs, he tackles the threat head on and figures out how to turn anxiety into opportunity. Along the way he meets bulls and bears and the people who can help you to master management in the age of AI. Full Season 3 out 29th January 2026.To listen to the full series, subscribe to Economist Podcasts+. https://subscribenow.economist.com/podcasts-plusIf you're already a subscriber to The Economist, you have full access to all our shows as part of your subscription. For more information about how to access Economist Podcasts+, please visit our FAQs page or watch our video explaining how to link your account. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

AI is changing how we work. It's turning us all into managers. Be a good one. The Economist's management columnist, Andrew Palmer, takes on the bots in the third season of Boss Class. From cloning to coding, agents to entry-level jobs, he tackles the threat head on and figures out how to turn anxiety into opportunity. Along the way he meets bulls and bears and the people who can help you to master management in the age of AI. Full Season 3 out 29th January 2026.To listen to the full series, subscribe to Economist Podcasts+. https://subscribenow.economist.com/podcasts-plusIf you're already a subscriber to The Economist, you have full access to all our shows as part of your subscription. For more information about how to access Economist Podcasts+, please visit our FAQs page or watch our video explaining how to link your account. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Get the book, The Digital Delusion: How Classroom Technology Harms Our Kids' Learning—And How To Help Them Thrive Again Visit the LME Global website, www.LMEGlobal.net Follow Jared on Youtube @JaredCooney About The Author Jared Cooney Horvath, PhD is a neuroscientist educator who has conducted research and lectured at Harvard University, Harvard Medical School, and The University of Melbourne, and over 750 schools on 6 continents. Jared has published 7 books, over 60 research articles, and his work has been featured in popular publications, including The New Yorker, The Atlantic, The Economist, and on the Australian Broadcasting Corporation's science show Catalyst. Jared currently serves as Director of LME Global: a team dedicated to bringing the latest brain and behavioral research to teachers, students, and parents.   This episode of Principal Center Radio is sponsored by IXL, the most widely used online learning and teaching platform for K-12. Discover the power of data-driven instruction in your school with IXL—it gives you everything you need to maximize learning, from a comprehensive curriculum to meaningful school-wide data. Visit IXL.com/center to lead your school towards data-driven excellence today.   

AI is changing how we work. It's turning us all into managers. Be a good one.The Economist's management columnist, Andrew Palmer, takes on the bots in the third season of Boss Class. From cloning to coding, agents to entry-level jobs, he tackles the threat head on and figures out how to turn anxiety into opportunity. Along the way he meets bulls and bears and the people who can help you to master management in the age of AI.Full Season 3 out 29th January 2026.To listen, subscribe to Economist Podcasts+.If you're already a subscriber to The Economist, you have full access to all our shows as part of your subscription. For more information about how to access Economist Podcasts+, please visit our FAQs page or watch our video explaining how to link your account. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In the second of their two-part roundtable, Seth Carpenter and Morgan Stanley's top economists break down the forces influencing growth across different regions.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. And yesterday I sat down with my colleagues, Michael Gapen, our Chief U.S. Economist, Chetan Ahya, our Chief Asia Economist, and Jen Eisenschmidt, our Chief Europe Economist. And we spent a lot of time talking about monetary policy around the world. Today, let's go back to them, talk about the real side of the economy. It's Friday, January 23rd at 10am in New York. Jens Eisenschmidt: And 4pm in Frankfurt. Chetan Ahya: And 9pm in Hong Kong. Seth Carpenter: Michael, let me start with you, back on the U.S. And when I think about the U.S. economy, we have to start by talking about the U.S. consumer. Walk us through what investors need to understand about consumer spending in the U.S. What's driving it, what's going to hold it up, and where are the risks? Michael Gapen: I think the primary thing to remember here is that the upper income consumer drives about 40 percent or more of total spending. So, there can be higher inflation that eats into real labor market income growth. There can be inflation dispersion, which hits lower income households more than upper income households. We can have tariffs that get applied to goods and lower- and middle-income households buy goods more than upper income households. But when asset markets continue to appreciate, when home prices hold on to their prior gains, sometimes that doesn't matter in the aggregate statistics because that upper income household keeps spending.I do think that's a lot of what happened in 2025. So, there is a K-shaped economy. I think one of the main risks about the U.S. is that its expansion is narrowly driven. We think that will broaden out in 2026. If we're right, that inflation comes down and we're past, kind of, the peak effect of tariffs, then we think that lower- and middle-income household can have a little more residual spending power. And you might get the consumer operating on two fronts, rather than one. Seth Carpenter: Another part of domestic spending that gets a lot of attention is business investment spending, CapEx spending. First would you agree with that statement that CapEx spending last year was characterized by AI CapEx spending? Second, should we feel confident that that underlying sort of momentum in CapEx spending should continue for this year? And then third, what's it going to take for there to be a broadening out, maybe like what you said about consumers, but a broadening out of investment spending so that it's not just the AI story that's driving CapEx. Michael Gapen: I do agree that the primary, almost exclusive story in 2025 for business spending was AI. So, when you look at residential and non-residential spending, unrelated to AI, that I think did feel the effects of policy uncertainty in a changing environment. what keeps kind of sustainability around business spending? Obviously, it's a multi-year investment story around AI. There's a level versus growth rate argument here where you can have a heck of a lot of CapEx spending. May not always show up in GDP because some of it is intermediate goods, some of it is imported. But that doesn't diminish, I think, the quality of the overall story. What gets business spending to broaden out, I do think is related to whether consumer spending broadens out. Most business spending kind of follows demand with a lag. So, AI is a different story, but there's a cyclical component to business spending. There could be a housing related component, if mortgage rates come down and stimulate at least a little more turnover in the housing market. So, if the recovery does broaden out, we see greater real income growth in low- and middle-income households. The labor market stabilizes. Maybe mortgage rates come down a little bit, then I think you could get carry through momentum to non-AI related business spending. That would look more like a cyclical upswing for the economy. May be a heavy lift, but that's what I think it would take to get there. Seth Carpenter: So, Jens, let me come to you. We talked yesterday about the ECB possibly easing more on disinflation. But when I think of disinflation, I think of a weak economy. And that's maybe not really the case. So, I guess the first question to you would you characterize euro area economic growth as strong, or a little bit more complicated? Jens Eisenschmidt: A little bit more complicated. And that's always the right answer for an economist – I think it depends. Well, it is strong in some quarters. And these quarters will change from where it has been in the past.So concretely, we think the German economy has most potential to catch up and actually accelerate, and that's due to fiscal stimulus mainly. While we have other quarters, the French and the Italian one, which will be below potential and so weak – each of them for their own reason. And then we have the Spanish economy, which performs exceptionally and is really strong, but it's only a small part of the euro area economy. If we had everything together, I think the outlook is an economy that's accelerating mildly and only towards the end of our projection horizon, which is [20]27. So, in say two years, hits growth rates that are above potential. Here we are really talking about quarterly increments above 0.3. So, we are currently between 0.1 and 0.2. So, you sort of get the picture of a mildly accelerating economy that goes from 0.15 to 0.035 say in the span of two years. Seth Carpenter: One of the key narratives in markets is about fiscal policy in Germany, potentially driving growth. I know in equity markets it's been a key investing theme. So how excited should people be about the possibility of fiscal policy in Germany driving a resilient European economy? Jens Eisenschmidt: Pretty excited, I would say, in a sense that the positioning of the German government for its economy is actually exceptional in terms of the amount of fiscal space that exists and that has been made available. It's just that, of course, the connection of that sort of abstract excitement that we economists have to what actually happens in markets is sometimes a little bit loose; in the sense that equity [markets would like to see everything coming online tomorrow, and that's going to be a more drawn-out process. So, to my point before, it will take some time. We do have implementation lags. We do have lags in say, for instance, on defense procurement. There is maybe not as much capacity in the economy to deliver into everything. But the direction of travel is clear and up. So, from that perspective, I have no doubts that the future is better for the German economy over the medium term for all the reasons mentioned, but it won't be immediate. And we have just seen in recent headlines, Germany is the most trade exposed European economy. If we get more friction in global trade, that's not great. So, you could even have short term, more negative news on GDP than positive ones. Seth Carpenter: Chetan, I'm going to turn to you. Yesterday when we talked about Asia, we focused on Japan. But, of course, when it comes to the real side of the economy, the big mover in Asia is China.So, let's talk a little bit about how you see China evolving. What the key themes are for China. Last year in particular, we talked a lot about the deflationary cycle in China and how it was protracted. It wasn't going away. That policy was not sufficient to drive a huge surge in demand to push things away. Are we in the same place for China in 2026? What kind of growth should we expect and what sort of policy reactions should we be expecting from China? Chetan Ahya: Well, I think the macro backdrop for China we think will still be challenging in 2026. But at the same time, we expect the micro positives to continue. Now on the macro backdrop, when I say it's going to remain challenging because the number one issue that we are focused on from a macro perspective in China is deflation. Now we do expect some easing of deflationary pressures, but [the] economy will still stay in deflation in 2026. And on the micro front what we've seen is that China is emerging from a situation where it is making inroads into advanced manufacturing, and that's enabling it to increase market share in global goods exports. And it's also one of the reasons why when you see the numbers coming out from China on exports, they seem to be outperforming. Even just the latest month number as we saw, China's exports were surprising on the upside relative to market expectations. And that's the micro story – that you'll see China continuing to gain market share in global goods export. And that supports the corporate micro positive story. Seth Carpenter: We know collectively that export is a key part of China's economy. The productive capacity, as you point out, important for China. When you think about exports from China, the currency has to come in. And recently the renminbi has been appreciating. Lots of questions from clients here or there. How important is the renminbi in reflating or rebalancing the China economy? Can you walk us through a little bit some of these considerations about the role that the currency is playing now and over the next few quarters for China and its economic outlook. Chetan Ahya: Yeah, that's right, Seth. Actually, I've been getting a number of clients calling me and asking whether PBOC is going to allow a significant appreciation in RNB. We've seen it appreciate quite a lot in the last few days. And then whether this will mean China's economy will rebalance faster towards consumption. Look, on the first point, we don't think PBOC will allow a significant currency appreciation because, as I just mentioned earlier, the deflation problem is still there. It's not gone. While we see reduced deflationary pressures, as long as the economy is in deflation, it'll be very difficult for PBOC to allow significant currency appreciation. And what we are also watching on RMB is to see what is happening to the trade weighted RMB. The RMB basket, if you were to call it. That interestingly has been in a stable range since 2016, and we don't think that changes. We've learned from Japan's experience in the nineties that if you have deflation problem, you shouldn't be taking up currency appreciation. And we think PBOC pretty much follows that rule book. On the rebalancing part, look, I think when you have deflation and if currency appreciation is going to add to deflation pressures, that will mean corporate sector revenue suffers. They will actually be cutting wage growth and therefore that has a negative impact on consumption. And so, in our view, instead of helping rebalancing currency appreciation with China's current macro backdrop, we'll actually be making rebalancing more difficult. Seth Carpenter: And of course, we're used to China being a key driver of the economy, not just in Asia, but around the world. But if we think about then broadening out from China, what should we be expecting in terms of growth for the other economies in Asia? Chetan Ahya: For the other economies in the region, I think the most important driver will be what happens to exports more broadly. In 2025, Asia did benefit from better tech exports, but because of tariffs and also what was happening in the U.S. in terms of its own domestic demand, we'd seen that there was significant weakness in non-tech exports. So, from an outlook perspective in 2026, we think that that non-tech export story turns around and that will help the recovery in the region to broaden out from it just being tech exports to non-tech exports, to improvement in CapEx, job growth and consumption. So, I think that the whole region is going to see the benefit from this turnaround. But particularly the non-China part of the region will be seeing a meaningful improvement in their export growth, real GDP growth and normal GDP growth in 2026. Seth Carpenter: I'm getting ready to wrap things up. But before I do, I'm going to ask each of the three of you, one last rapid-fire question. Michael, I'm going to start with you. AI is on everyone's lips. If we were to see a rapid adoption of AI technology across all the economies. What would it mean for the Fed? Michael Gapen: Well, I think that would mean a substantial uptick in productivity growth. Maybe closer to 3 percent like we saw in the tech boom in the nineties. So faster real growth. But probably still disinflation. You can argue the Fed could even lower rates in that environment. It may take them a while to figure it out [be]cause they'd be balancing incoming data that shows a lot of strong growth. But probably further evidence that inflation's coming down. So, if it's supply side driven, then I think you could still probably get some rate cuts out of the Fed to normalize policy as inflation comes down. But I'd be thinking those cuts could even come much later. Seth Carpenter: Okay, Jens to you, a lot of discussion in the news about possible additional tariffs from the U.S. on Europe in some of the negotiations. Suppose some of the announcements, 10 percent tariffs rising to 25 percent tariffs later. Suppose those were actually put in place. What does that mean for European growth? Jens Eisenschmidt: So, I would say 10 percent additional tariffs, we have a framework for that. Pointing to drag on GDP growth somewhere between 30 and 60 basis points. So roughly half of what we think 2026 will bring in growth. Now, for sure the answer is additional tariffs are not great for growth. Big question mark here is though whether we get any retaliation from the European side, which we think this time around if we get additional tariffs from the U.S. side is more likely. And that would just increase the downside risk for Europe here from that additional round of trade or tariff uncertainty. Seth Carpenter: Chetan, I'm going to end up with you. When we think about China, when we think about policy, what do you think it would take for there to be a fundamental shift in policy out of Beijing to get a real full blown, demand driven fiscal stimulus? Or is that just not in the cards whatsoever? Chetan Ahya: Well, in our base case, we don't think that's likely to happen in our forecast horizon. But if we do get a big social stability challenge emerging in China, then we could get that big pivot from [a] policy response perspective, where policy makers move towards consumption. And our recommendation there is to boost social welfare spending, particularly targeted towards migrant workers, which could be taken up if you get that social stability risk event materializing. Seth Carpenter: Mike, Chetan, Jens, thank you so much for joining today. And for the listener, thank you for joining us. If you enjoy this show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.

AI is changing how we work. It's turning us all into managers. Be a good one.The Economist's management columnist, Andrew Palmer, takes on the bots in the third season of Boss Class. From cloning to coding, agents to entry-level jobs, he tackles the threat head on and figures out how to turn anxiety into opportunity. Along the way he meets bulls and bears and the people who can help you to master management in the age of AI.Full Season 3 out 29th January 2026.To listen, subscribe to Economist Podcasts+.If you're already a subscriber to The Economist, you have full access to all our shows as part of your subscription. For more information about how to access Economist Podcasts+, please visit our FAQs page or watch our video explaining how to link your account. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Our Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter joins our chief regional economists to discuss the outlook for interest rates in the U.S., Japan and Europe.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. And today we're kicking off our quarterly economic roundtable for the year. We're going to try to think about everything that matters in economics around the world. And today we're going to focus a little bit more on central banking. And when we get to tomorrow, we'll focus on the nuts and bolts of the real side of the economy. I'm joined by our chief regional economists. Michael Gapen: Hi, Seth. I'm Mike Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist at Morgan Stanley. Chetan Ahya: I'm Chetan Ahya, Chief Asia economist. Jens Eisenschmidt: And I'm Jens Eisenschmidt, Chief Europe economist. Seth Carpenter: It's Thursday, January 22nd at 10 am in New York. Jens Eisenschmidt: And 4 pm in Frankfurt. Chetan Ahya: And 9 pm in Hong Kong. Seth Carpenter: So, Mike Gapen, let me start with you as we head into 2026, what are we thinking about? Are we going into a more stable expansion? Is this just a different phase with the same amount of volatility? What do you think is going to be happening in the U.S. as a baseline outlook? And then if we're going to be wrong, which direction would we be wrong? Michael Gapen: Yeah, Seth, we took the view that we would have more policy certainty. Recent weeks have maybe suggested we're incorrect on that front. But I still believe that when it comes to deregulation, immigration policy and fiscal policy, we have much more clarity there than we did a year ago. So, I think it's another year of modest growth, above trend growth. We're forecasting something around 2.4 percent for 2026. That's about where we finished 2025. I think what's key for markets and the outlook overall will be whether inflation comes down. Firms are still passing through tariffs to the consumer. We think that'll happen at least through the end of the first quarter. It's our view that after that, inflation pressures will start to diminish. If that's the case, then we think the Fed can execute one or two more rate cuts. But we have those coming [in] the second half of the year. So, it looks like growth is strong enough. The labor market has stabilized enough for the Fed to wait and see, to look around, see the effects of their prior rate cuts, and then push policy closer to neutral if inflation comes down. Seth Carpenter: And if we go back to last year to 2025, I will give you the credit first. Morgan Stanley did not shift its forecast for recession in the U.S. the way some of our main competitors did. On the other hand, and this is where I maybe tweak you just a little bit. We underestimated how much growth there would be in the United States. CapEx spending from AI firms was strong. Consumer spending, especially from the top half of the income distribution in the U.S. was strong. Growth overall for the year was over 2 percent, close to 2.5 percent. So, if that's what we just came off of, why isn't it the case that we'd see even stronger growth? Maybe even a re-acceleration of growth in 2026? Michael Gapen: Well, some of that, say, improvement vis-à-vis our forecast, the outperformance. Some of that I think comes mechanically from trade and inventory variability. So, . I'm not sure that that says a lot about an improving trend rate of growth. Where there was other outperformance was, as you noted, from the consumer. Now our models, and I don't mean to get too technical here, but our model suggests that consumption is overshooting its fundamentals. Which I think makes it harder for the economy to accelerate further. And then AI; it's harder for AI spending to say get incrementally stronger than where it is. So, we're getting a little extra boost from fiscal. We've got that coming through. And I just think what it is, is more of the same rather than further acceleration from here. Seth Carpenter: Do you think there's a chance that the Fed in fact does not cut rates like you have in your forecast? Michael Gapen: Yes, I do think... Where we could be wrong is we've made assumptions around the One Big Beautiful Bill and what it will contribute to the economy. But as you know, there's a lot of variability around those estimates. If the bill is more catalytic to animal spirits and business spending than we've assumed, you could get, say, a demand driven animal spirits upside to the economy, which may mean inflation doesn't decelerate all that much. But I do think that that's, say, the main upside risk that we're considering. Markets have been gradually taking out probabilities of Fed cuts as growth has come in stronger. So far, the inflation data has been positive in terms of signaling about disinflation, but I would say the jury's still out on how much that continues. Seth Carpenter: Chetan, When I think about Japan, we know that it's been the developed market central bank that's been going in the opposite direction. They've been hiking when other central banks have been cutting. We got some news recently that probably put some risk into our baseline outlook that we published in our year ahead view about both growth and inflation in Japan. And with it what the Bank of Japan is going to do in terms of its normalization. Can you just walk us through a little bit about our outlook for Japan? Because right now I think that the yen, Japanese rates, they're all part of the ongoing market narrative around the world. Chetan Ahya: Yeah, Seth. So, look, I mean, on a big picture basis, we are constructive on the Japan macro-outlook. We think normal GDP growth remains strong. We are expecting to see the transition for the consumers from them seeing, you know, supply side inflation. Keeping their real wage growth low to a dynamic where we transition to real wage growth accelerating. That supports real consumption growth, and we move away from that supply side driven inflation to demand side driven inflation. So broadly we are constructive, but I think in the backdrop, what we are seeing on currency depreciation is making things a bit more challenging for the BOJ. While we are expecting that demand side pressure to build up and drive inflation, in the trailing data, it is still pretty much currency depreciation and supply side factors like food inflation driving inflation. And so, BOJ has been hesitant. So, while we had the expectation that BOJ will hike in January of 2027, we do see the risk that they may have to take up rate hike earlier to manage the currency not getting out of hand and adding on to the inflation pressures. Seth Carpenter Would I be right in saying that up until now, the yen has swung pretty widely in both directions. But the weakening of the yen until now hasn't been really the key driver of the Bank of Japan's policy reaction. It's been growth picking up, inflation picking up, wanting to get out of negative interest rates first, wanting to get away from the zero lower bounds. Second, the weaker yen in some sense could have actually been seen as a positive up until now because Japan did go through 25 years of essentially stagnant nominal growth. Is this actually that much of a fundamental change in the Bank of Japan's thinking – needing to react to the weakness of the yen? Chetan Ahya: Broadly what you're saying is right, Seth, but there is also a threshold of where the currency can be. And beyond a point, it begins to hurt the households in form of imported inflation pressures. And remember that inflation has been somewhat high, even if it is driven by currency depreciation and supply side factors for some time. And so, BOJ has to be watchful of potential lift in inflation expectations for the households. And at the same time, they are also watching the underlying inflation impact of this currency depreciation – because what we have seen is that over period workers have been demanding for higher wages. And that is also influenced by what happens to headline inflation, which is driven by currency depreciation. So, I would say that, yes, it's been true up until now. But, when currency reaches these very high levels of range, you are going to see BOJ having to act. Seth Carpenter: Jens, let's shift then to Europe. The ECB had been on a cutting cycle. They came to the end of that. President Lagarde said that she thought the disinflationary process had ended. In your year ahead forecast and a bunch of your writing recently, you've said maybe not so fast. There could still be some more disinflationary, at least risk, in the pipeline for Europe. Can you talk a little bit about what's going on in terms of European inflation and what it could mean for the European Central Bank? Because clearly that's going to be first order important for markets.Jens Eisenschmidt: I think that is right. I think we have a crucial inflation print ahead of us that comes out on the 4th of February. So, early February we get some signal, whether our anticipated fall of headline inflation here below the ECB's target is actually materializing. We think the chances for this are pretty good. There's a mix why this is happening. One is energy. Energy disinflation and base effects. But the other thing is services inflation resets always at the beginning of the year. January and February are the crucial month here. We had significant services upward pressure on prices the last years. And so just from base effects, we think we will see less of that. Another picture or another element of that picture is that wage disinflation is proceeding nicely. We have notably a significant weakness in the export-oriented manufacturing sector in Germany, which is a key sector of setting wages for the country. The country is around 30 percent of the euro area GDP. And here we had seen significant wage gains over the last year. So, the disinflationary trend coming from lower wage gains from this country, that will be very important. And an important signal to watch. Again, that's something we don't know. I think soon we have to watch simply monthly prints here. But a significant print for the first quarter comes out in May, and all of that together makes us believe that the ECB will be in a position to see enough data or have seen enough data that confirms the thesis of inflation staying below target for some time to come. So that they can cut in June and September to a terminal rate of 1.5 percent. Seth Carpenter: That is, I would say, out of consensus relative where the market is. When you talk to investors, whether they're in Europe or around the world, what's the big pushback that you get from them when you are explaining your view on how the ECB is going to act? Jens Eisenschmidt: There are two essential pushbacks. So, one is on substance. So, 'No, actually wages will not come down, and the economy will actually start overheating soon because of the big fiscal stimulus.' That, in a nutshell is the pushback on substance. I would say here, as you would say before, not so fast. Because the fiscal stimulus is only in one country. It's 30 percent. But only 30 percent of the euro area.Plus, there is another pushback, which is on the reaction function of the ECB. Here we tend to agree. So far, we have heard from policy makers that they feel rather comfortable with the 2 percent rate level that they're at. But we think that discussion will change. The moment you are below target in an actual inflation print; the burden of proof is the opposite. Now you have to prove: Is the economy really on a track that inflation will get back up to target without further monetary stimulus? We believe that will be the key debate. And again, happy to, sort of, concede that there is for now not a lot of signaling out of the ECB that further rate cuts are coming. But we believe the first inflation print of the year will change that debate significantly. Seth Carpenter: Alright, so that makes a lot of sense. However, looking at the clock, we are probably out of time for today. So, for now, Michael, Chetan, Jens, thank you so much for joining today. And to the listener, thanks for listening. And be sure to tune in tomorrow for part two of our conversation. And I have to say, if you enjoy this show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.

Today, President Trump has wrapped up his second and final day at the World Economic Forum in Davos. The President held an inauguration for his new “Board of Peace” and met with Ukraine's President Zelensky - which Zelensky said included agreeing post-war security guarantees for his country. BBC chief North America correspondent Gary O'Donoghue and the Economist's Shashank Joshi break it all down. And the former Labour Minister Andrew Gwynne confirmed his plans to retire on medical grounds triggering a by-election that could pave the way for Andy Burnham to run and ultimately launch a leadership challenge against Keir Starmer. Political correspondent Joe Pike joins Adam to explain why polticos have been speculating. You can now listen to Newscast on a smart speaker. If you want to listen, just say "Ask BBC Sounds to play Newscast”. It works on most smart speakers. You can join our Newscast online community here: https://bbc.in/newscastdiscordGet in touch with Newscast by emailing newscast@bbc.co.uk or send us a WhatsApp on +44 0330 123 9480.New episodes released every day. If you're in the UK, for more News and Current Affairs podcasts from the BBC, listen on BBC Sounds: https://bbc.in/4guXgXd Newscast brings you daily analysis of the latest political news stories from the BBC. The presenter was Adam Fleming. It was made by Anna Harris with Shiler Mahmoudi and Chloe Scannapieco. The social producer was Beth Pritchard. The technical producers were James Piper and Mike Regaard. The assistant editor is Chris Gray. The senior news editor is Sam Bonham.

Steve highlights the strength of Trump's economy and analyzes the latest inflation data. The conversation also covers Mayor Mamdani's proposal to eliminate hotel fees for customers in NYC, exploring the potential impact on the hotel industry.

Steve highlights the strength of Trump's economy and analyzes the latest inflation data. The conversation also covers Mayor Mamdani's proposal to eliminate hotel fees for customers in NYC, exploring the potential impact on the hotel industry.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Matt Steinglass, Europe editor at The Economist, explains the recent news in President Donald Trump's remarks on acquiring Greenland, including that the U.S. will impose tariffs on eight European countries until the U.S. acquires the country, and Europe's response.

As world leaders prepare to meet in Davos for an economic conference, many are mulling how to respond to President Trump's suggestion that the US claim Greenland. On Today's Show:Matt Steinglass, Europe editor at The Economist, explains the recent news in President Donald Trump's remarks on acquiring Greenland, including that the U.S. will impose tariffs on eight European countries until the U.S. acquires the country, and Europe's response.