Podcasts about Recession

An unprecedented shakeup at the very top of the Chinese military has shaken up the rest of the world. Xi Jinping didn't just go after a longtime friend and ally, he has gone after everyone in what increasingly looks like a paranoid, Stalinist shakeup. But why? I've told you many times before about the economic pressure on China that has only intensified more recently. But that's not the only thing. That's where it starts, but where it ends is what is increasingly being confirmed as Cold War 2.0.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------60 Minutes How China could use U.S. farmland to attack Americahttps://www.cbsnews.com/news/how-china-could-use-us-farmland-to-attack-america-60-minutes/NYT Xi's Purge of China's Military Brings Its Top General Down https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/24/world/asia/china-top-general-xi-military-purge.htmlU.S. Secret Service dismantles imminent telecommunications threat in New York tristate areahttps://www.secretservice.gov/newsroom/releases/2025/09/us-secret-service-dismantles-imminent-telecommunications-threat-new-yorkhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

We're in the middle of a trust recession. It's totally changing everything about buyer behavior and marketing in 2026. Selling feels slower and more personal. And maybe a little heavier than it used to. If you've been feeling that shift, you're not doing anything wrong.In this episode, I'm sitting down with my friend Sheri Moise, and she offers a really refreshing (and honestly relieving) reframe that every freelancer and service provider needs right now. We talk about why so many old marketing tactics just aren't landing anymore, and what actually builds trust, authority, and momentum in a much more discerning market.Sheri Moise is an Intuitive Business Astrologer and Strategist who helps entrepreneurs plan, launch, and lead using timing and data rather than guesswork. With over 25 years in corporate sales and marketing, Sheri brings a practical, grounded lens to astrology—focusing on audience readiness, market cycles, and decision-making. She's known for helping clients see what's coming next and respond strategically instead of reactively.Listen to learn more aboutWhy the trust recession is actually a wisdom evolutionHow buyer behavior in 2026 is changing (and why slower isn't bad)The shift from know-like-trust to trust-first marketingWhy guru-style marketing is collapsingHow freelancers can build authority without hype or pressureFreelancers and service providers, it's time to stop running the same tired marketing playbook. This conversation shows what actually works with buyers in 2026.Sponsored by The Digital Marketer's Workgroup Already doing marketing work and ready for more clients and better referrals? Join a supportive, tight-knit community of freelancers where you'll get behind-the-scenes conversations, ongoing support, advanced training, and exclusive job leads. Apply here!Links Mentioned in Show:Grab Sheri's Success Planet Diagnostic for 50% off with code: Unicorn. You'll get a personalized PDF report that shows how your internal operating system works in business. It helps you understand your natural timing, decision-making rhythm, and pacing so you can plan and move forward without pressure or guesswork.Connect with Sheri:Instagram: @sherimoiseFacebook: Sheri Moise Astro BizWebsite: http://sherimoise.com/ Connect with

Billionaire investor Ray Dalio is warning we shouldn't be focused on trade wars, instead the real concern is capital wars. In those, Dalio says there will be a reduced appetite for owning US government debt or any US assets. Maybe even including American stocks. The comments were made in the context of recent geopolitical flashpoints in Venezuela and Greenland. As always, there's a lot of noise surrounding this kind of topic, but what does the evidence say?Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre---------------------------------------------------------If you're a serious investor and want to capitalize on what the monetary system is signaling right now, plus deep discussions about what truly is the greatest threat we all face, join me and Brent, plus Hugh Hendry, George Gammon, Steve Van Metre, and Mike Green at Eurodollar University's very first Live Event, President's Day Weekend, February 2026. Small groups, intimate discussions. To reserve your spot just go here https://eurodollar-university.com/event-home-page---------------------------------------------------------CNBC Ray Daliohttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gda9T9gZSe4https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Thanks to Monarch for partnering with me! Get 50% off your first year by using my link https://monarchmoney.yt.link/xxoutOh or discount code euro50 when signing up for a free trial! Welcome to calm, confident money! #monarchpartnerA huge arctic blast, the weather wedge, has sent natural gas prices soaring in historic fashion. Some futures prices surged by a whopping 75% in just five days leading up to what people are calling the storm of the century. Freezing cold. Snow. Ice sheets. Icemageddon. Winter hazards slated to impact two-thirds of the eastern United States, roughly half the country's population. The combination of low natural gas inventories and that huge sudden for it, the jump in price is to be expected. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisHow A Weather Wedge Is Shaping This Weekend's Southern Ice Stormhttps://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2026/01/23/how-a-weather-wedge-is-shaping-weekend-southern-ice-storm/Natural Gas Prices Across the US Surge Ahead of Arctic Blasthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-23/us-natural-gas-falls-after-record-breaking-three-day-rallyCEOs Wary of a Jittery US Consumer as Global Tensions Intensifyhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-23/ceos-wary-of-a-jittery-us-consumer-as-global-tensions-intensifyhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

What if most sexual shame isn't personal failure—but bad information? In this episode, Dr. John talks with Dr. Justin Garcia, Executive Director of the Kinsey Institute, about what the science actually says about desire, intimacy, fidelity, and pair-bonding. They unpack why “normal” is a misleading idea in sex, why many couples are touch-deprived, and how stress and low-level threat responses can shut down connection and arousal. You'll also hear surprising research on men and heartbreak, what people truly want in long-term partners and what might be behind the so-called “sex recession.” The throughline: curiosity is a powerful aphrodisiac—and you're not broken, you're under-informed.Key topics covered (bullets): “Am I normal?” why the data says variation is the norm The “touch crisis” and why many partners feel touch-starved Men, romance, and why breakups can hit men harder Trust, kindness, and “self-expansion” as core mate preferences Stress, trauma, and the nervous system's impact on desire The sex recession: is it real, is it bad, and what might be causing it Sexual literacy: why better information improves connection and consent Want To Learn More About Relational Happiness? Here's Where To Start:

The Japanese government bond market suffered a major meltdown this week that has shaken up a lot of people as they try to figure out what's going on over there and how it might impact more than just government bonds as a class. One of the key factors that has emerged, however, is just how little selling it took to create these massive price swings. That has enormously profound implications.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------EDU LIVE PRESIDENT'S DAY FEBRUARY 2026If you're a serious investor and want to capitalize on what the monetary system is signaling right now, plus deep discussions about what truly is the greatest threat we all face, join me and Brent, plus Hugh Hendry, George Gammon, Steve Van Metre, and Mike Green at Eurodollar University's very first Live Event, President's Day Weekend February 2026. Small groups, intimate discussions. To reserve your spot just go here but you better hurry, there aren't many spots left:https://eurodollar-university.com/event-home-page------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Staffing entrepreneur Bill Kasko joins me to unpack what it actually takes to survive—and adapt—through decades of economic shocks, technology shifts, and human volatility.Most business stories compress time and smooth the edges. This one doesn't. Bill and I walk through his 21-year journey building Frontline Source Group across recessions, oil crashes, collapsing hiring markets, pandemic shutdowns, and now AI-driven disruption. From the early days of gratitude-driven work to the bitterness of 2008, from physical offices and gas-price friction to video interviews and remote work, this episode traces how survival depends less on foresight—and more on the ability to pivot without losing your core.We talk about why “vision” is overrated without execution, how every crisis quietly trains you for the next one, and why technological change today moves in minutes—not years. Bill shares hard-earned lessons on empathy, honesty, and when to say no, even when it costs money. The thread running through it all: businesses don't fail because things change—they fail because leaders refuse to adapt fast enough.This isn't a growth story. It's a durability story.TL;DR* You only truly “start over” once—experience compounds even after failure* Gratitude fades; resilience must replace validation* Technology shifts now happen in minutes, not years* Vision is easy—execution from where you are is the real work* Low adaptability, not bad luck, kills businesses* Remote work, automation, and AI reward speed—not certainty* Empathy scales better than ego in volatile systemsMemorable Lines* “Vision is easy—getting from here to there is what nobody talks about.”* “Every crisis trains you for the next one, whether you want it to or not.”* “Technology didn't kill businesses—refusal to adapt did.”* “You don't start over empty-handed; you start over with scar tissue.”* “AI can answer questions—but it can't replace empathy.”GuestBill Kasko — Founder & CEO, Frontline Source Group Staffing and executive search entrepreneur with over two decades navigating recessions, workforce revolutions, and technological disruption.Why This MattersThe modern business environment doesn't offer long plateaus—it delivers repeated shocks. Recessions, pandemics, automation, and shifting labor power structures are no longer anomalies; they're the operating system.For founders, operators, and executives rebuilding after disruption, this episode reframes survival not as toughness—but as adaptability with integrity. The future doesn't belong to the most confident leaders. It belongs to those who can absorb impact, adjust quickly, and keep the human core intact while everything else changes.Reinvention isn't optional anymore. It's the job. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dougutberg.com

LISTEN and SUBSCRIBE on:Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/watchdog-on-wall-street-with-chris-markowski/id570687608 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2PtgPvJvqc2gkpGIkNMR5i WATCH and SUBSCRIBE on:https://www.youtube.com/@WatchdogOnWallstreet/featured  Sounds crazy, right? But Japan is finally doing what strong economies have to do: letting weak companies fail. As bond yields hit 30-year highs and zombie firms collapse, capital is finally flowing where it belongs. Recessions aren't the enemy—they're the cleanup crew. Creative destruction works, and Japan may be proving it in real time.

Charles Hoskinson, Founder of Input Output, unpacks the state of the blockchain. Input Output Founder Charles Hoskinson joins CoinDesk's Jennifer Sanasie to break down why network growth isn't reflecting in token prices and why he's sounding the alarm on recent U.S. crypto legislation. Plus, he offers a warning to the industry about the potential weaponization of crypto legislation. - Read the State of Blockchain 2025 report commissioned by Input Output here: https://www.coindesk.com/research/state-of-the-blockchain-2025 - Timecodes: 01:26 - Unpacking the State of the Blockchain 2025 Report03:24 - Charles' Reaction to the Looming AI Bubble and US Economic Stability05:46 - How Close Are We to a Recession?08:14 - Charles on U.S. Foreign Policy and Greenland10:14 - Why Ecosystems Need Utility Over Marketing13:51 - The Problem with Current Crypto User Experiences and Who Has Done It Right18:05 - Lace ID as the Decentralized Identifier21:04 - Charles Reacts to Recent Criticisms from XRP Army23:05 - Charles on the State of Crypto Regulation25:57 - Why the Current Crypto Bill is "A Love Letter to the Banks"28:19 - Charles Calls Out Political Corruption and Weaponization of Crypto Policy - This episode was hosted by Jennifer Sanasie.

The US housing market seemed like it was moving in the right direction recently, some better results people said were lower mortgage rates finally starting to work. But then reality dropped like a hammer today when the nation's largest realtor group reported a massive 9.3% drop in pending home sales for December, biggest monthly decline since 2020. Stunned analysts are trying to figure out why lower rates aren't stimulating housing and what these latest results mean.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------US Pending-Home Sales Plunge by Most Since Start of Pandemichttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-21/us-pending-home-sales-plunge-by-most-since-start-of-pandemicNAR Pending Home Sales Report Shows 9.3% Decrease in Decemberhttps://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-pending-home-sales-report-shows-9-3-decrease-in-decemberNAR First-Time Home Buyer Share Falls to Historic Low of 21%, Median Age Rises to 40https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/first-time-home-buyer-share-falls-to-historic-low-of-21-median-age-rises-to-40BlackRock and Housing: Setting the Record Straighthttps://www.blackrock.com/corporate/literature/brochure/blackrock-and-housing-setting-the-record-straight.pdfTrump Signs Order Targeting Institutional Housing Investorshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-21/trump-signs-order-targeting-institutional-housing-investorshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Macy's is the latest retailer to admit to struggling in the current economic climate, closing several of what it calls fulfillment centers, basically warehouse facilities in Connecticut and Oklahoma and shedding thousands of those jobs. That comes in addition to even more store closings across the country. Why? Because only the wealthy are spending so the company wants to focus as much as possible on that segment. Macy's is not alone.  EDU LIVE PRESIDENT'S DAY FEBRUARY 2026If you're a serious investor and want to capitalize on what the monetary system is signaling right now, plus deep discussions about what truly is the greatest threat we all face, join me, Hugh Hendry, George Gammon, Steve Van Metre, Brent Johnson, Mike Green at Eurodollar University's very first Live Event, President's Day Weekend February 2026. To reserve your spot just go here but you better hurry, there aren't many spots left:https://eurodollar-university.com/event-home-pageEurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisDelta Declines on Tepid Forecast as Geopolitics Weigh on Travelhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-13/delta-places-major-boeing-order-as-earnings-support-travel-boomMacy's plans to close stores in 12 states—see if your city is listedhttps://www.msn.com/en-us/foodanddrink/foodnews/macy-s-plans-to-close-stores-in-12-states-see-if-your-city-is-listed/ar-AA1UirgL?cvid=696b13e01f884a7ab6d68a7ead48018f&ocid=BHEA000Macy's to close Oklahoma fulfillment centerhttps://www.supplychaindive.com/news/macys-to-close-tulsa-oklahoma-fulfillment-center-bold-new-chapter/809289/Macy's to lay off nearly 1,000 at Connecticut fulfillment centerhttps://www.retaildive.com/news/macys-layoffs-cheshire-connecticut-fulfillment-center/809837/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Dan Aronson discusses pockets of opportunity in the market and other early 2026 takeaways. He's leaning into active ETFs; his firm is building out vehicles within that space. “Leaning into a sector or theme makes sense,” he says, but there are a lot of narratives in the market requiring investors to be nimble. He likes the AI trade but thinks it will transition to end-user companies over the next few years. Dan compares the U.S. to Europe and touches on the possibility of a recession.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Thanks to Monarch for partnering with me! Get 50% off your first year by using my link https://monarchmoney.yt.link/eB2fzzP or discount code euro50 when signing up for a free trial! Welcome to calm, confident money! #monarchpartnerChinese retail sales just did something they've never done before outside of the lockdowns. At the same time, capital investment continues to legitimately crash, December was third month in a row of steep declines leading to the first yearly negative for it in China's modern history. The only thing, the ONLY thing, keeping the economy from completely falling off a cliff is China selling everything it can everywhere else, especially in Europe. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisChina NBS Basic Situation of National Fixed Asset Investment in 2025https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202601/t20260119_1962326.htmlChina's economy looks more resilient than it feels as a property slump drags onhttps://apnews.com/article/china-economy-property-tariffs-jinping-17e9a32cf105764f457c1111f185dd3fMacron threatens tariffs on China "in the coming months" due to trade surpluseshttps://fr.tradingview.com/news/forexlive%3A3395740c5094b%3A0-macron-threatens-tariffs-on-china-in-the-coming-months-due-to-trade-surpluses/Tariffs of up to 50% go into effect, hitting imports from China, other non-FTA countrieshttps://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/mexico-tariffs-go-into-effect-china/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Trust is at the center of everything leaders want—but in today's skeptical, information-saturated world, trust is harder to earn than ever.In this episode of the LeadCulture Podcast, Jenni Catron sits down with financial coach, business owner, and speaker MJ Pittman for a timely conversation on what he calls the trust recession—and why it places an even greater responsibility on leaders. Together, they unpack why likability isn't the same as trust, how predictability creates psychological safety, and what leaders often overlook when they assume trust should already exist.MJ brings a fresh lens by blending financial principles with leadership realities, offering practical frameworks leaders can actually apply. From understanding why trust is rooted in safety—not charisma—to exploring the five questions every person is subconsciously asking before they trust a leader, this conversation challenges leaders to rethink how trust is built, sustained, and repaired.If you're leading in uncertain times, navigating team skepticism, or wondering why clarity and consistency matter more than ever, this episode will give you language, insight, and actionable next steps to lead with greater credibility and confidence.Key takeaways include:Why we're experiencing a “trust recession” in organizationsThe difference between likability and trust—and why it mattersHow predictability builds safety in both calm and stressful seasonsThe five questions people ask before they trust a leaderWhy trust is a learnable leadership skill—not a personality traitThis is a must-listen for leaders who want to strengthen culture, deepen influence, and lead in a way that earns trust over time—not just goodwill in the moment.We need your help to get the LeadCulture podcasts in front of more leaders! There are three simple things you can do that truly help us: Review us on Apple podcasts Subscribe - we're available wherever you listen to podcasts. Share - let your friends know about the podcast by sharing your favorite episode on social media!

What is going on with Freddie Mac? The Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, which is Freddie's official, has seen its stock utterly pummeled this past week, crashing by 25%. Since Freddie is one of the mortgage giants, this isn't just some run of the mill equity. The story here appears to be tied up in a number of different angles, from GSE QE to its IPO, but the themes we keep coming back to are concerns over its cash and our jobs.Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Want to learn how to invest in real estate during a recession? Market downturns can present a lot of investment opportunities, and in this episode, I break down all of the different strategies for identifying and making the most of these opportunities. Join Our Investor Club: https://bit.ly/43BhrhP  This episode was originally published on December 22, 2023. 

Send us a textWhat if one buried document could cost… or save…you millions?Joe Downs sits down with real estate attorney Jason Mandel to unravel the nerve-wracking tale of a nearly disastrous storage facility acquisition, dubbed “The Storage Attic.” With only minutes left in the due diligence period, Joe discovered the property was four feet underwater in a flood zone… not the two feet the 87-year-old seller claimed. The insurance premium? A jaw-dropping jump from $12,000 to $81,000 a year. Jason reveals how quick legal thinking and strategic contract clauses narrowly saved the deal… and Joe's investment. They also dig into other cautionary case studies from students, exposing pitfalls like outdated broker forms and zoning blind spots. This episode proves that specialized legal expertise isn't a luxury… it's your lifeline in self-storage investing. WHAT TO LISTEN FOR:13 What happens when a deal looks perfect but hides a fatal flaw3:12 How did a delayed survey nearly cost millions6:45 What legal options exist when due diligence runs out9:47 Why are standard broker contracts dangerous for buyers25:56 How can zoning issues destroy a deal after closing Leave a positive rating for this podcast with one click CONNECT WITH GUEST: JASON MANDEL, REAL ESTATE ATTORNEY/PARTNER AT ROYER COOPER COHEN BRAUNFELD LLCLinkedIn | Website | Email | Bio  CONNECT WITH USWebsite | You Tube | Facebook | X | LinkedIn | InstagramJoe Downs on LinkedInBelrose website | Belrose email | Belrose LinkedIn Follow so you never miss a NEW episode! Leave us an honest rating and review on Apple or Spotify.

Every financial crisis generally takes place in three steps. And while there aren't bright, clear lines of separation between them, each one does have unique characteristics that allow us to get a sense of where things stand in the process. That's the thing, cycles are processes and as this one might go through all three steps, each one represents an escalation in that process. We're in Stage 1, that's just the start. Stage 2, it's getting serious. Make it all the way to three...well, you never want to see THREE.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis--------------------------------------------------------------------------EDU's Subscription DDA-all Offer for the Credit CycleGo from getting blindsided by the markets to reading the eurodollar signals weeks before they hit. Try it all risk-free for 14 days.https://web.eurodollar-university.com/eurodollar-vsl-page-a--------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

#681: Barry Ritholtz's mom sold real estate. Those dinner table conversations about mortgages helped him spot the 2008 crash before most of Wall Street did. Now he runs Ritholtz Wealth Management and joins us to explain why we're often our own worst investment enemy. He breaks investing mistakes into three categories: bad ideas, bad numbers, and bad behavior. Here's what stood out. Research shows just 2 percent of stocks create all the market's value. The other 98 percent? Pretty much worthless. Barry says 90 percent of everything is garbage — from science fiction to investment advice. Even experts have blind spots. Michael Jordan dominated basketball but couldn't make it in minor league baseball. The lesson? Being brilliant at one thing doesn't make you brilliant at everything. Those financial memes everyone shares? They're misleading. Take Kevin's Home Alone groceries — $20 in 1990, $75 today. Sounds terrible until you realize wages went up the same amount. We actually spend less of our income on food now. Or that scary stat about the dollar losing 96 percent of its value over 100 years. Barry asks: who buries cash for a century? His math: $1,000 buried in 1925 buys almost nothing today. Same $1,000 invested in stocks? It's worth $32 million. Markets don't die of old age. Alan Greenspan warned about "irrational exuberance" in 1996. The Nasdaq kept climbing another 431 percent over four years. Recessions need triggers. They don't show up on schedule like buses. Fear wrecks more portfolios than anything else. Barry quotes neurologist William Bernstein: "Control your amygdala or die poor." Our fight-or-flight response helped us escape predators. It doesn't help us navigate market crashes. Make your investment plan before crisis hits. As Barry says, reading emergency instructions while the engine falls off at 25,000 feet is too late. He's seen every crash since 1987. Markets drop 30 to 40 percent about once a decade. Accept it. Plan for it. Barry advocates for Roth conversions and something called the "Mega Roth." Pay taxes now, withdraw tax-free later. We know today's tax rates. Future rates are anyone's guess. His bottom line: humans are terrible at predicting the future. Build portfolios that can survive anything, because anything will happen. Timestamps: Note: Timestamps will vary on individual listening devices based on dynamic advertising run times. The provided timestamps are approximate and may be several minutes off due to changing ad lengths. (00:00) Intro (02:00) How fear of mistakes can make investors too conservative (06:00) Bad ideas vs good ideas in investing (09:00) Process over outcome in decision making (15:00) Thinking probabilistically about market outcomes (20:00) Why recessions and bull markets don't follow calendars (26:00) AI's real capabilities vs hype (33:00) Different market commentator archetypes (41:00) Expertise doesn't transfer between domains (50:00) Misleading financial statistics everywhere (56:00) Managing emotions when markets crash (1:00:00) Creating an investment plan before crisis (1:05:00) Tax strategies and Roth conversions Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today we're going be unpacking the latest from closely watched indicators out of China: bank lending data, household credit, the movement of the yuan, and what a single real estate developer—China Vanke—tells us about debt and payments right now. Bank lending in 2025 fell to the lowest since 2018 largely because household lending utterly collapsed. Yes, it collapsed last year. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The Japanese yen keeps tumbling and as it does it is tanking the bond market over there. What we have is the first case of a currency value setting interest rates, with, of course, the Bank of Japan helplessly caught in the middle. That helplessness is reinforced by the fact Japan's currency is being closely paralleled by South Korea's and others across Asia. The tumbling won and yen have led to government calls for stringent action, including from Treasury Secretary Bessent today.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------EDU LIVE PRESIDENT'S DAY FEBRUARY 2026If you're a serious investor and want to capitalize on what the monetary system is signaling right now, plus deep discussions about what truly is the greatest threat we all face, join me, Hugh Hendry, George Gammon, Steve Van Metre, Brent Johnson, Mike Green at Eurodollar University's very first Live Event, President's Day Weekend February 2026. To reserve your spot just go here but you better hurry, there aren't many spots left:https://eurodollar-university.com/event-home-page---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Statement from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powellhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20260111a.htmBloomberg Tariff Pass-Through Limited So Far, US Data Showhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-01-13/tariff-pass-through-limited-so-far-us-data-show-evening-briefing-americas‘Sell America' Trade Is Revived by Trump's Latest Fed Attackhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-12/fed-subpoenas-revive-sell-america-trade-on-autonomy-concernsSouth Korea Is Pulling Out All Stops to Try to Prop Up Wonhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-18/south-korea-digs-deeper-into-intervention-toolkit-as-won-slidesBessent Calls Out Drop in South Korea's Won After Remarks on Yenhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-14/bessent-flags-won-s-weakness-as-excessive-offering-rare-supporthttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Today Clark shares an important warning about booking travel - info that could save you from becoming stranded or banned from a major airline. Also - Taking into account our current K-shaped economy, a softening job market, and inflation projections, Clark explains the potential for a “growth recession”, and gives you the classic playbook for an uncertain economy.   Travel Booking Alert: Segment 1 Ask Clark: Segment 2 Survive The Growth Recession: Segment 3 Ask Clark: Segment 4 Mentioned on the show: Warning: The Hidden Danger of Cheap Flights How To Plan a Trip: Clark's Best Travel Tips To Save Money Travel Archives - Clark Howard   /   Today's Top Travel Deals Will TSA PreCheck® Still Be Worth It After New Rule Change? Clark Howard's Economy Predictions in 2026⁠⁠ Emergency Fund: Everything You Need to Know How To Save Money: Spend Less & Build Your Savings 17 Extreme Money-Saving Tips How Many Bank Accounts Should You Have? - Clark Howard Clark.com resources: Episode transcripts Community.Clark.com  /  Ask Clark Clark.com daily money newsletter Consumer Action Center Free Helpline: 636-492-5275 Learn more about your ad choices: megaphone.fm/adchoices Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Former Rep. Mike Gallagher and political scientist Kevin Wallsten say that President Biden's diversity, equity and inclusion agenda alienated would-be military recruits. What motivates young Americans to enlist, and can President Trump, who touts high standards and individual merit, reverse a cultural retreat from military service? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Or... how to host a party if you have Asperger's. Nick Gray is an entrepreneur and an author living in Austin, Texas. I met him roller skating. He started and sold two successful companies: Flight Display Systems and Museum Hack.  His YouTube and short videos have been seen by over 55 million people. He's been featured in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and New York Magazine called him a host of "culturally significant parties." Leading him to write the book, "The 2-Hour Cocktail Party: a step-by-step handbook that teaches you how to build big relationships by hosting small gatherings." You can find that book, as all books discussed on this program, by going to mightyheaton.com/featured. Nick Gray's PersonalWebsite.org and PersonalWebsites.net Nick Gray's Patron View donor database Nick Gray's Website and Blog Patron View Patron Leaderboards The 2-Hour Cocktail Party by Nick Gray Friendship Recession  

JP Morgan missed on its earnings after failing to sell as many bonds as it was expecting for its customers. At the same time, Jamie Dimon, the bank's CEO, he of cockroach fame, was forced to acknowledge how the labor market had softened before then going on to describe Goldilocks anyway. This is something that has come up in a couple of other sources already, not Goldilocks though that is the Fed's official position, too. No, bond issuance is looking weak heading into 2026, another one of those key credit cycle signs.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------EDU LIVE PRESIDENT'S DAY FEBRUARY 2026If you're a serious investor and want to capitalize on what the monetary system is signaling right now, plus deep discussions about what truly is the greatest threat we all face, join me, Hugh Hendry, George Gammon, Steve Van Metre, Brent Johnson, Mike Green at Eurodollar University's very first Live Event, President's Day Weekend February 2026. To reserve your spot just go here but you better hurry, there aren't many spots left:https://eurodollar-university.com/event-home-page---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------JPM Q4 2025https://www.jpmorganchase.com/content/dam/jpmc/jpmorgan-chase-and-co/investor-relations/documents/quarterly-earnings/2025/4th-quarter/d868c7ef-1670-465d-ba75-c2b36ddbcc6b.pdfJPM Q4 2024 https://www.jpmorganchase.com/content/dam/jpmc/jpmorgan-chase-and-co/investor-relations/documents/quarterly-earnings/2024/4th-quarter/36b3c0a4-3ecd-422e-8167-0a31372f3438.pdfA Growing Number of Bonds Edge Closer to Junk Statushttps://www.tradealgo.com/news/a-growing-number-of-bonds-edge-closer-to-junk-statushttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The online coaching space is expected to reach $100B by 2030, which means we are rapidly growing. With that being said, now more than ever, there are more ads, marketing messages and coaches appearing in the space every day. Consumers are skeptical (and you might be, too). This episode breaks down how to overcome skepticism and continue to build trust and authority to ensure you stand out as a credible coach in the market. –I'll create a profitable profile for you in minutes. Click to attract high-paying clients. https://go.taelerdehaes.com/bio-surveyJoin our Fit Pro Business Secrets Made Simple group over on Facebook for exclusive resources, trainings and help as you're growing your online fitness business. https://www.facebook.com/groups/fitprobusinesssecrets/  Follow Taeler on Instagram. https://www.instagram.com/taelerfit/Learn more about working with Taeler, whether you're just starting your online coaching business or scaling to multi-6/7-figures. https://taelerdehaes.com/ 

Jeff Schulze of ClearBridge Investments shares insights from the ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard, explores the outlook for US equities in 2026, and discusses how AI-driven capital expenditures compare to past innovation cycles. Get his perspective on economic trends and where opportunities may lie in the year ahead.

Almost 40% of Canadian real estate funds have restricted access to investor funds, and that includes potential payouts. It's a sign of how deep the housing bust in Canada has gotten to be, but also applies to the situation that's spreading across global markets where it comes to the shadow bank matter. In fact, the UK's house of lords urged the Bank of England to look into private credit risks “as a matter of urgency.”Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What is a Eurodollar University membership? It's where understanding the monetary world isn't a mystery, it's a method.If you're serious about your financial education and want clarity in a world of volatility and massive uncertainty, you're in the right place. Mainstream education has left so many massive gaps on the most foundational concepts, making sense of everything is practically impossible otherwise. With our memberships, we'll fill in everything that you've been missing. Join us: https://web.eurodollar-university.com/eurodollar-vsl-page-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Bloomberg Canadians Are Furious After Real Estate Funds Lock Up Their Moneyhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-12/fed-subpoenas-revive-sell-america-trade-on-autonomy-concernsBloomberg Private Credit Risks Need Urgent Attention, UK Lawmakers Sayhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-09/lords-report-slams-uk-treasury-for-apathy-to-private-credit-riskhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Being cool af is actually a massive recession indicator. Youtube: https://youtu.be/5BAJg91KqmI Patreon: https://homie.gives/ https://xenotransmissions.substack.com/ Merch: https://www.redbubble.com/people/HomiesOnly/shop?asc=u Other stuff: https://linktr.ee/OccultnicHomie Discord: https://discord.gg/ua6FjftA5w PO Box: (host name) Care of: IvyCorp PO Box 57 carrboro, NC 27510

Call it GSE QE. The same day it was reported US housing construction fell to the lowest since 2020, the Trump administration announced it was going to direct the housing GSEs, Fannie mae and Freddie Mac, to buy $200 billion in mortgage securities. The idea is that those purchases will reduce mortgage borrowing costs and offer some aid to struggling households who might then consider buying a house previously out of their reach.  Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------EDU LIVE PRESIDENT'S DAY FEBRUARY 2026If you're a serious investor and want to capitalize on what the monetary system is signaling right now, plus deep discussions about what truly is the greatest threat we all face, join me, Hugh Hendry, George Gammon, Steve Van Metre, Brent Johnson, Mike Green at Eurodollar University's very first Live Event, President's Day Weekend February 2026. To reserve your spot just go here but you better hurry, there aren't many spots left:https://eurodollar-university.com/event-home-page---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Monetary Policy and the Mortgage Markethttps://www.kansascityfed.org/Jackson%20Hole/documents/10336/schnabl_jh.pdfDid the Federal Reserve's MBS Purchase Program Lower Mortgage Rates?https://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2011/201101/201101pap.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Predictions feel comforting—but they're usually nonsense. In this episode, Don and Tom dismantle the illusion of foresight by revisiting last year's loudest economic forecasts around tariffs, inflation, jobs, recessions, and markets. Drawing from a Wall Street Journal retrospective, they show how both political promises and expert predictions missed the mark, with reality landing squarely in the messy middle. The takeaway is classic Talking Real Money: nobody—not economists, not presidents, not pundits, and especially not you—has actionable insight into the future. That's why successful investing isn't about forecasts or hot takes, but about building a diversified portfolio, rebalancing when needed, and tuning out the noise. The episode wraps with listener questions on teen investing accounts and Roth conversion rules, plus a reminder that humility beats hubris every time markets get unpredictable. 0:04 The future is unpredictable—even when we pretend it isn't 0:26 Why we crave predictions and mistake luck for skill 0:53 Being “right” once doesn't mean anything 1:58 Tariffs, Trump, and the great forecasting divide 2:27 Inflation predictions that never showed up 3:53 Jobs, unemployment, and why both sides were wrong 5:49 Who actually paid for tariffs (hint: not who you think) 7:08 Recession fears vs. reality—and the AI wildcard 8:55 Why short-term predictions fail and macro trends survive 10:41 The truth usually lives between the extremes 11:31 Lao Tzu, Yogi Berra, and why nobody knows the future 13:20 The most dangerous “expert” investors trust: themselves 14:43 Listener question: investing for a 16-year-old 17:29 Roth IRA vs. UTMA/UGMA and simple fund choices 18:06 Listener question: Roth conversions and the five-year rule 20:54 Humor, offense, and why everyone needs to lighten up 21:14 RetireMeet 2026 details and special guest preview 23:14 Apella Wealth philosophy and free help reminder 24:39 The number one word of the year (still shocking) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Send us a textWhat if you could invest in storage with 20-to-1 demand advantage, higher revenue per square foot, and almost zero REIT competition…but 95% of investors don't even know it exists? Joe Downs reveals the explosive boat and RV storage opportunity that's hiding in plain sight, with expert Sydnie Wilda from The Storage Manager exposing exactly why this overlooked sector could be your most profitable move in 2026. From the shocking supply-demand imbalance (600,000 new boats and RVs delivered annually vs. only 25,000-30,000 new parking spots) to the operational secrets that separate winners from amateurs, this episode delivers the blueprint for capitalizing on America's outdoor recreation boom before the big players wake up.  WHAT TO LISTEN FOR3:19 What makes boat and RV tenants completely different from traditional storage customers?12:18 Why is a 60-foot drive aisle the difference between profit and disaster?18:30 How do you "idiot-proof" your facility design to prevent fence demolition?24:31 What is the "peak-end experience" and why does it multiply your tenant retention?27:53 Should you build a boat and RV facility on your vacant land? Leave a positive rating for this podcast with one click CONNECT WITH GUEST: SYDNIE WILDA, OPERATIONS AND DEVELOPMENT SPECIALIST | SSA YOUNG LEADERS GROUP SENATOR | MEMBERSHIP COMMITTEE LEADERLinkedIn | Website | Email CONNECT WITH USWebsite | You Tube | Facebook | X | LinkedIn | InstagramJoe Downs on LinkedInBelrose website | Belrose email | Belrose LinkedIn Follow so you never miss a NEW episode! Leave us an honest rating and review on Apple or Spotify.

US consumers have basically stopped using their credit cards. According to the Fed's latest data, revolving consumer credit declined again, the third time over the last seven months. And one of those other three was basically zero. There has been a clear change in attitude which means Americans aren't just feeling pessimistic, they're taking action about it. That is why consumer revolving credit is a critical cyclical signal, it draws together all the major components.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

 Chris Markowski, the Watchdog on Wall Street, delves into various pressing financial topics, including the war on drugs, the economic situation in Venezuela, the challenges facing the oil industry, and the current state of the U.S. economy. He discusses the implications of rising bankruptcies, government fraud, and the realities of the real estate market, while emphasizing the importance of understanding economic indicators and the need for reform in agricultural practices. Markowski encourages listeners to seek financial freedom and be aware of the truths behind the financial narratives presented by the media and government.

Blue Owl, a name we've gotten to know for all the wrong reasons, has been forced to come clean after getting sued by pretty much every class action securities lawyer in America, not only into admitting there was a wave of withdrawals but also promising to accommodate them over and above what it normally would. Not only does that further confirm the First stage of the credit cycle reverse, it actually sets up the second stage. In this video, we're going to cover where everything in the credit cycle stands and and more importantly what it all means. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis------------------------------------------------------------------------------EDU LIVE PRESIDENT'S DAY FEBRUARY 2026If you're a serious investor and want to capitalize on what the monetary system is signaling right now, plus deep discussions about what truly is the greatest threat we all face, join me, Hugh Hendry, George Gammon, Steve Van Metre, Brent Johnson, Mike Green at Eurodollar University's very first Live Event, President's Day Weekend February 2026. To reserve your spot just go here but you better hurry, there aren't many spots left:https://eurodollar-university.com/event-home-page---------------------------------------------------------------------------------Bloomberg Publicly Traded Private-Credit Funds Set for Worst Year Since 2020https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-29/publicly-traded-private-credit-funds-set-for-worst-year-since-2020Bloomberg Blue Owl BDC Allows 17% Redemptions as Investors Storm Exithttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-07/blue-owl-bdc-allows-for-17-redemptions-as-investors-storm-exithttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Charlie Eisenhood and Josh Mansfield discuss all the latest news from the offseason so far. Despite a quiet sponsorship market, there's still plenty to talk about, including a Disc Golf Network shakeup and the overall health of the sport. Be sure to join the Ultiworld Disc Golf discord for weekly bonus content in the Live segment, Inside the Circle, available only for subscribers.

Can Farage plot a route to Number 10, asks Tim Shipman in our cover article this week. He might be flanked by heavyweights – such as his head of policy Zia Yusuf and Conservative Party defector Danny Kruger MP – but he will need a lot more people to pull off his biggest upset for British politics yet. Where will they come from? And what's the balance he needs to strike between being radical enough to win power but also without alienating significant chunks of the electorate?Plus, as former UK ambassador to the US Peter Mandelson breaks his silence – in this week's Spectator – to argue that Europe needs to adapt to a new reality, Freddy Gray ponders what Trump's ‘Donroe Doctrine' is actually all about. Immigration? Drugs? Oil? Or just plain chaos? For this week's Edition, host William Moore is joined by political editor Tim Shipman, deputy editor and editor of our US edition Freddy Gray and columnist Mary Wakefield. As well as domestic and foreign politics, they examine Generation Z's attitude towards sex – or rather their lack of it. Are politics and porn making them too anxious? Is this another example of the cultural ‘boring twenties' young people are living through? And how will each of the guests approach the sex education of their own children?Produced by Patrick Gibbons. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

“We're underweight tech pretty substantially,” says Doug Butler, though his firm has positions in Alphabet (GOOGL) and Oracle (ORCL). He cites valuation and AI bubble concerns, saying the sector has gotten “very, very stretched out.” As long as the economy doesn't tip into recession – which he sees around a 25% chance of later in the year – he sees opportunities in financials and healthcare. His picks include Mastercard (MA), Blackrock (BLK), Zoetis (ZTS), and more. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Can Farage plot a route to Number 10, asks Tim Shipman in our cover article this week. He might be flanked by heavyweights – such as his head of policy Zia Yusuf and Conservative Party defector Danny Kruger MP – but he will need a lot more people to pull off his biggest upset for British politics yet. Where will they come from? And what's the balance he needs to strike between being radical enough to win power but also without alienating significant chunks of the electorate?Plus, as former UK ambassador to the US Peter Mandelson breaks his silence – in this week's Spectator – to argue that Europe needs to adapt to a new reality, Freddy Gray ponders what Trump's ‘Donroe Doctrine' is actually all about. Immigration? Drugs? Oil? Or just plain chaos? For this week's Edition, host William Moore is joined by political editor Tim Shipman, deputy editor and editor of our US edition Freddy Gray and columnist Mary Wakefield. As well as domestic and foreign politics, they examine Generation Z's attitude towards sex – or rather their lack of it. Are politics and porn making them too anxious? Is this another example of the cultural ‘boring twenties' young people are living through? And how will each of the guests approach the sex education of their own children?Produced by Patrick Gibbons.Become a Spectator subscriber today to access this podcast without adverts. Go to spectator.co.uk/adfree to find out more.For more Spectator podcasts, go to spectator.co.uk/podcasts. Contact us: podcast@spectator.co.uk Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is simply insane – new car sales among American households making $75k or less have crashed by 30% since 2019. Car prices soared. Incomes didn't. They can't afford a new car. But it's not just the lowest incomes. Those making between $75k and $150k have bought 7% fewer cars than in 2019. This is a lot more than the K-shaped economy and to call it an affordability crisis seriously understates the problem. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis------------------------------------------------------------------------------EDU LIVE PRESIDENT'S DAY FEBRUARY 2026If you're a serious investor and want to capitalize on what the monetary system is signaling right now, plus deep discussions about what truly is the greatest threat we all face, join me, Hugh Hendry, George Gammon, Steve Van Metre, Brent Johnson, Mike Green at Eurodollar University's very first Live Event, President's Day Weekend February 2026. To reserve your spot just go here but you better hurry, there aren't many spots left:https://eurodollar-university.com/event-home-page---------------------------------------------------------------------------------Fox Business Fed Governor Stephen Miran says more than 100 basis points in rate cuts justified this yearhttps://www.foxbusiness.com/media/fed-governor-stephen-miran-says-more-than-100-basis-points-cuts-justified-yearBloomberg Slowing Auto Sales Stoke Concern Over Near-Record Car Priceshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-05/us-auto-sales-poised-to-slip-as-middle-class-buyers-retreathttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

First off — Happy New Year. To kick off the year, this week's episode of the Wealth Formula Podcast is a solo one from me. I spend the episode walking through my outlook for 2026 and sharing a few predictions for how I think this cycle is going to play out. Lately, I keep hearing the same question phrased in different ways. The economy feels tight, but markets are holding up. Growth is coming in stronger than expected, inflation is easing, and yet a lot of the signals people usually rely on just don't seem to be lining up. That disconnect is really the starting point for this episode. Rather than reacting to headlines or making short-term calls, I wanted to step back and talk through the mechanics of what's actually driving this environment — and why it looks so different from the cycles most of us learned about. A lot of it comes down to debt, policy constraints, how capital moves today, and the growing influence of technology. When you start looking at those pieces together, some of the things that feel confusing begin to make a lot more sense. This isn't meant to be alarmist or overly optimistic. It's simply an attempt to frame the environment clearly so you can think about it more intelligently — especially if you're deploying capital or deciding whether it makes sense to sit on the sidelines. If you've felt like the economy and the markets aren't really speaking the same language right now, I think you'll find this episode useful. Transcript Disclaimer: This transcript was generated by AI and may not be 100% accurate. If you notice any errors or corrections, please email us at phil@wealthformula.com.  You need to be out of the dollar and into the investor class because that that widening gap between those who have, who own things, who own assets and those who do not is gonna continue to widen. Welcome everybody. This is Buck Joffrey with the Wealth Formula Podcast, and today I am going to do something a little bit different. I’m gonna kind of give you. My perspective, maybe predictions I dare say about, uh, the upcoming year in 2026, how I look at it, what I think, uh, uh, is likely outcome and why. Not that I am any smarter than any of you on this stuff, but I’ve actually kind of sat down and, and thought about, you know, the things that are going on in the macroeconomic. Side of things and, um, put some stuff together and, uh, hopefully you’ll enjoy it. We’ll have, uh, that right after these messages. Wealth formula banking is an ingenious concept powered by whole life insurance, but instead of acting just as a safety net, the strategy supercharges your investments. First, you create a personal financial reservoir that grows at a compounding interest rate much higher than any bank savings account. As your money accumulates, you borrow from. Your own bank to invest in other cash flowing investments. Here’s the key. Even though you’ve borrowed money at a simple interest rate, your insurance company keeps paying you compound interest on that money even though you’ve borrowed it at result, you make money in two places at the same time. That’s why your invest. Get supercharged. This isn’t a new technique. It’s a refined strategy used by some of the wealthiest families in history, and it uses century old rock solid insurance companies as its backbone. Turbocharge your investments. Visit Wealthformulabanking.com. Again, that’s wealthformulabanking.com. Welcome back everyone, and, uh, happy New Year to you. I forgot to even say that in the intro. How rude of me. Hopefully you had a great holiday, you had a great Christmas, and you’re bringing in the new year with a vision of health and wealth and PO prosperity and all that stuff. So anyway, let’s talk a little bit about, uh, you know what I am. Kinda looking at for 2026. Now, when you think about, well, what are these predictions and what could they be and all that, um, interest rates, inflation markets, you know, uh, let’s set the foundation for how I’m thinking about it, because everything else really kind of builds on it. And the most important thing to understand is that debt. Is really now I think the main character in the economy. I know we, people have been talking about this for a very long time, but I think, I think the debt issue is really, really becoming something that cannot be ignored, and I’ll get into that in a while. Obviously, I’m not saying that inflation and interest rates don’t matter. They matter enormously. Uh, those are the things that people actually feel, right? Higher prices, higher mortgage rates, higher insurance costs. What I’m saying is that the level of debt now determines really how decisions on those things are made from policy makers. You know, how do they respond to inflation and interest rates, recessions market stress. What debt does is it actually kinda limits the range of choices around how policy makers react to all these things. So once you see that, the behavior of the economy starts to, I think, make a lot more sense. So let’s start with. Sovereign debt, and I’m gonna start really basic here because the question is, you know, what exactly is sovereign debt? Okay. And sovereign debt is the money a government owes, okay? In the US it exists because the government consistently spends more than it collects in taxes, and that gap is called the deficit. When that happens year after year, you have an accumulation of debt. Now, when debt is low, it’s, it’s pretty manageable, right? But when debt gets very large, it starts to influence policy decisions, and that’s where we are right now. Uh, here’s the key mechanic that I think most people don’t really think about, right? Governments don’t pay off debt the way you and I, you know, pay off our debt, like mortgage or whatever. They always refinance it, right? So when the US government borrows money, it issues bonds. That’s how it does, those bonds have maturity dates, and when you buy a bond, you’re, you know, you’re loaning the government money. So when a bond matures, the government owes that principle back to you. Right? So that’s, that’s kind of how well we talk about, we talk about debt, but the government doesn’t save money over time to pay off that bond. Like, I mean, that’s the way you would think about it for you and me, right? I mean, at some point you’re like, ah, I really need to pay off this debt. I’m just gonna pay it off with this money that I saved. Instead, what they do is when a bond comes due, it issues a new bond and uses the money from that new bond to pay back the old one. Okay. Now, if that sounds familiar, uh, to you, it’s because it’s pretty much what we would call in plain English refinancing, right? Now imagine though, the government issued a bond a few years ago when interest rates were near zero. That bond matures today, interest rates are much higher, right to pay off the old bond. The government issues a new one at today’s higher rates. So the debt doesn’t disappear, it just becomes more expensive to carry, right? I mean, it’s just like you got a mortgage, you know you had a, a great rate, but you only got it for seven years and all of sudden you gotta refinance it. Gosh, all of a sudden that rate went really higher and your payments are much higher, and the debt payments going up, you know, for the government, what adds to that deficit? It’s a really, really vicious cycle. Now, take that process and multiply it across trillions of dollars of debt. Now you can start seeing why interest rates matter so much in a high debt system. Now, what makes this especially important right now is that for over the last several years, the US issued a very large amount of short-term debt. Short-term debt matures quickly, and that means large portions of government debt. Come due every year and have to be refinanced at whatever the interest rate exists at the time. So even if deficit stock growing tomorrow, which they won’t, the government would still need smooth functioning financial markets just to keep refinancing what it al what already exists now. This is why the economy has become so sensitive to interest rates, liquidity and confidence. Higher interest rates increase the cost of refinancing, right? We’ve mentioned that already. And that pushes deficits higher and forces even more borrowing. So I mentioned liquidity. What is that? Well, liquidity is about how easily money moves through the system. When liquidity is good, bonds are easily absorbed. Banks lend markets function normally, and when liquidity dries up, refinancing becomes fragile. That stress. Stress in the market spreads quickly. And then finally, confidence I mentioned too. Why does confidence matter? Well, confidence matters because investors need to believe that the system is gonna hold together. When confidence weakens, guess what happens? Well, what would happen if you think about it with a loan, a higher risk loan? While investors demand higher yields like refinance, it becomes even more expensive. And problems compound fast. Now, this is why Pol policymakers are extremely uncomfortable with high borrowing costs, reduced lending, falling asset values, and deep recessions. Recessions, by the way, don’t make debt easier to manage. They make it harder by reducing tax revenue and worsening debt ratios. Now that brings me to a, something that I am feeling sort of back and forth with. Um. You know, a listener who sent me some commentary about, you know, the fear of going back to 1970s, eighties style interest rates. But the thing is that I just don’t think that comparison works, and here’s why. Okay, so in the 1970s, the US had far less debt. Interest rates could go very high without threatening the government’s ability to refinance itself. Now today, with debt much larger relative to the economy, very high rates don’t just fight inflation. They stress the entire financial structure, right? You can’t just say, oh, we’re gonna make super high rates because the cost of all that debt the government has is gonna be extraordinarily expensive. Now, that doesn’t mean that rates can’t rise. It means policymakers have far less tolerance for how high and how long rates can stay elevated. It’s a completely different system from the 1970s and eighties. So I think trying to put things into that context is probably not, um, not a, a good way to think about it. So why am I fo focusing on this right now? Uh, instead of a few years ago, because again, we stu we didn’t suddenly become a high debt economy this year. So what changed? Well timing a massive amount of debt that was issued at very low interest rates, as I mentioned before, is now maturing and being refinanced at much higher rates, and that shift is no longer theoretical. It’s happening in real time. Last year, much of that low uh, rate, debt was still in place. Interest costs hadn’t fully reset, but going into 2026, they have no, I, I keep talking about, you know, how much we’re paying an interest, right? Because again, that’s a big difference between now and the 1970s when you could have, you know, you didn’t have as much debt so you could pay more interest on it. Right now, the US is now spending roughly a trillion dollars a year just on interest. Her perspective, right? I mean, what’s a trillion dollars? Uh, what does that even mean for the normal person? Well, for Perce perspective, that’s the defense budget. $1 trillion. It’s more than Medicare, more than most major federal programs. And the thing is that money doesn’t do anything, right. It doesn’t create growth. It just services past borrowing. And this is the point where debt stops being background noise, kind of an annoyance that people just say, well, we’ll kick it to the next generation. It start starts actively shaping, uh, policy decisions because it’s, it’s a thing that you gotta pay for. You gotta keep paying for it. So the takeaway I want you to carry forward is simple. We now live in a system where policymakers don’t have the luxury of letting things break when debt is low. Governments can tolerate deep recessions like you saw in the seventies and eighties and long recoveries. When debt is high, they can’t because even small shocks can just really get outta control quickly. And that’s the framework I think, uh, that I’m using as we move into interest rates, inflation, and what all this means for markets going into 2026. So let’s talk about interest rates. You’ve heard me say that I think that interest rates are gonna come down. Um, they’re gonna continue to tick down a little bit. I don’t think a lot, but I do think there’ll probably be at least one more rate cut. I think, you know, you’re probably gonna have some, um, uh, some lowering in the 10 year and, and the bond market in general. Uh, but interest rates are not gonna go back to 2010, right? They just aren’t. And. The 2010s were not normal. There were a very specific period created by very specific conditions, right? Inflation was persistently low, uh, but just wouldn’t go up. Globalization, uh, push prices down. Capital was abundant. Debt levels, well, they were high, but they’re rising, but they hadn’t become what they are now. And because of that, central banks could hold rates near zero without much consequence. That environment, unfortunately, does not exist now. So today, debt is much higher. Inflation risk is real again, and investors expect to be compensated for lending money long term. So even when rates decline from current levels, they do not return, uh, they will not return to where people, uh, anchor them psychologically. If they’re thinking about the 2000 tens, they’re gonna settle higher. Within the 2000 tens baseline, you see policymakers are kind of stuck if rates, uh, say too high for too long. We mentioned this before. Refinancing government debt becomes increasingly expensive. Interest costs rise, deficits, widen, and then you get that financial stress that’s spreads through the credit markets. But if rates are pushed too low for too long, borrowing accelerates. And that’s. When inflation resurfaces and confidence in the currency weakens, so then that’s the tug of war. So policymakers, uh, you know, they, they can no longer choose between high rates and low rates. They’re gonna be choosing how to manage, uh, the trade-offs, right? So what’s gonna happen is that you’re gonna see that rates are gonna move within a range. Uh, they come down when something breaks, they move back up when inflation pressures recurrent. Um, that’s why volatility matters more than the exact. Level of rates going forward, in my opinion. So we’re, we’re not returning to free money. We are also not headed to a permanent 1970 style high rate world. What we are doing is entering a time where borrowing costs matter. Again, refinancing is not guaranteed, and rate swings are part of the system, and that naturally leads to the question of inflation. So once you understand why rates. You know, don’t go back to the 2010. The next question becomes, uh, well, if policymakers can’t keep rates high for long and they can’t push them back to zero either, then what are they actually trying to ac accomplish? Well, the answer is that, that the goal is kind of shifted for decades. Economic policy was focused on disinflation, um, you know, pushing inflation lower and lower. Over time, uh, and inflation was actually treated as a failure, and that made sense. In a world with lower debt in a high debt world, that logic sort of breaks down, right? Deflation, which is actually falling prices, increases the real value of debt. Think about that for a moment. Like just in terms of. You know, you have a mortgage and you know, sometime, you know, your parents might have like a 30 year mortgage or something like that, that they’ve had for 25 years. They’ve been paying it off and it’s great. But the bigger thing to notice is the amount of money that they borrowed is actually very small in real world dollars because it’s, you know, 25 years later. See, inflation is bad when it’s, you know, you’re dealing with it, but inflation is. Good at one other thing, which is it’s good at eroding debt. It will make, uh, the amount of the value of the, you know, the actual money that you owe on debt lower over time. So that’s why you can’t have deflation, right? You can’t have deflation because that increases the real value of the debt. It discourages spending, slows growth and makes refinancing harder. So in today’s system, deflation is way, way more dangerous than moderate inflation. And so because of that inflation really isn’t something that I think is quite as important that has to be eliminated at all costs. That, you know, you have to be right at 2%, which is, you know, kind of what the, the fed his, his target is, right? Instead, what you gotta do is you gotta manage it. Of course, that doesn’t mean you want runaway inflation. What they wanna do is have enough inflation to keep nominal growth positive and prevent debt burdens from become heavier again. Why? What do I mean by that? You gotta have enough inflation to erode the debt that we have, right? So this is why that 2% inflation target should be understood. As, you know, kind of aspirational, but not absolute because having a little higher inflation, yeah, it hurts people. It’s, uh, it hurts people on a day-to-day basis, but actually helps with that. So even at, uh, you know, inflation sell a bit higher than, than, than the, you know, 2% fed target say it’s 4%, it’s actually eroding, uh, you know, it is eroding purchasing power, but it’s also eroding debt. It’s, it’s stabilizing debt dynamics. From the system’s perspective, of course that’s helpful. But for us, we’re paying for things on a day-to-day basis to see the cost of eggs and all that. It’s, it’s frustrating, right? And that tension between system stability and personal cost, it’s one of the defining features of the economy heading into 2026. So when you see policymakers tolerate inflation, uh, longer. Then you think they should or step in quickly When markets kind of wobble, it’s not confusion or incompetence, it’s actually constraint because debt limits the available choices. Rates are managed within a range. Inflation is guided and not eliminated. Now put those together and you get the environment we’re moving into, which is an economy where markets can look. Resilient, even while people feel stretched, right? I mean, that’s kinda what we’re feeling. Everybody’s like, oh, these markets are doing fantastic, you know? But then, you know, you look at consumer confidence, it goes down. It’s been going down every month. This is an environment where asset prices recover faster than wages, and we’re understanding how policy reacts becomes a real advantage. So that’s kind of my macro setup for 2026. Um, you know, with that framework, we can start looking into the first prediction I’ll make. And again, these are not, you know, crazy predictions. Uh, they are just generalized things that I think you’re gonna see. So, like the first one is that the markets will stop being reliable proxy for the economy. You could argue that’s already happened, right? Markets in the economy kind of stopped correlating. We saw it after the financial crisis, right? We saw it very clearly even during COVID. The decoupling itself is not new. What’s new is that that decoupling is no longer temporary. It’s become the baseline that’s become the new normal. Uh, for most of modern history people had a fairly reliable mental model, right? You probably do. If you grew up in the eighties and nineties, uh, as a kid or whatever, when the economy felt bad, layoffs, we growth falling in con incomes, markets usually reflected the pain. Right. Sometimes there was a gap. Sometimes markets recovered a little earlier, but eventually things kinda re converged. The economy healed. We just caught up in the markets and lived experience kinda lined up. Now that’s the model that most people still have in their heads, and that’s why so many people feel so confused right now. I mean, I feel confused by it. So what’s changed going into 2026? You know, it, it is, it’s structural Now. We’re no longer living in a system where policy intervenes only during emergencies. We are, uh, in a system where policy is always on, debt is permanently high, rates are actively managed, inflation is tolerated rather than eliminated. And as a result of that, markets aren’t really necessarily responding primarily to how. The economy feels to people they’re responding. Uh, you know, it’s responding to refinancing needs. Liquidity management. Uh, confidence preservation. That’s a very different signal. COVID is the clearest example of that ship, but it’s, it’s important to understand it correctly. So in 2020, the economy was literally shut down, right? Unemployment exploded. Uh, small businesses were collapsing, right? Like, this is COVID and yet markets bottom quickly. We saw that and then bam. All time highs, even though life kind of felt terrible for a lot of people. And that wasn’t because the economy was healthy, it was because policy overwhelmed fundamentals. And at the time that felt extraordinary. It felt very different. Like this doesn’t make any sense. What’s different now is that we’re still using the same playbook but with out in obvious crisis. So intervention is no longer reactive. It’s, you know, uh, it’s preventative. So what do I predict for 2026? Well, markets are gonna stop being a reliable proxy for economic health. Uh, you, you people can just stop talking about that. Like it, like it, it means anything anymore. Markets going to increasingly reflect how constrained policymakers are and how much liquidity is in the system, and how aggressively risk is being managed. They’re not gonna, the markets are not gonna tell you. About affordability, wage pressure, or whether life feels easier or harder for people. Right. Those are completely gonna, those are, it’s just a standard thing now that those are uncorrelated and the gap is not, uh, abnormal anymore. It’s. The operating environment. So what do you do with that information? Well, for an individual investor, this environment requires a real mindset shift, right? You can’t rely on your gut anymore. You can’t say, man, I feel like this economy doesn’t feel good. So the market’s gonna look at the, I mean, you, you, you know, a lot of people feel like the economy doesn’t feel good to them because of inflation, because of what happened with interest rates and all that stuff, right? But look it, you’ve got. Record breaking, uh, stock market numbers. You can’t rely on your gut anymore. Your gut is telling you the economy feels bad. For many people, that’s absolutely true. Costs are high. Again, things feel tight, and the instinct is to wait to sit in cash. To assume markets would reflect that pain, but that instinct used to work. And in this system it doesn’t because markets are no longer pricing in how the economy feels. They’re pricing policy response. Liquidity and constraints. So if you wait for the economy to feel good before you act, it’s gonna be way too late. So instead of asking, does the economy feel weak, you need to start asking different questions. You need to ask how constrained policymakers are, how quickly liquidity will return if markets wob on it, and where capital tends to flow first when policy steps sit. In other words. You gotta start really thinking about investing, right? Like you gotta, like right now. Now I’ve talked, I’ve beat this over many times before, but you know, you have, if you’re, if you’re saving money right now and you’re looking and you are wondering what to do, look for things that are on sale now. I spent real estate’s on sale right now. Right? Get your money into the markets one way or another. That’s what I would say. Whatever it is that you want to invest in. Don’t let your money just erode because this lack of correlation is, it’s a really, really important thing and it’s, it’s gonna continue to happen and you know what else is gonna happen Because of that, you’re gonna see an increasing widening up the wealth gap. People whose income is tied primarily to wages are, are gonna experience that inflation directly, right? Their money’s trapped in the real economy where costs rise faster than income. But investors on the other hand, have an opportunity to participate in the markets that are supported by this sort of unnatural infrastructure that I just mentioned, right? As asset prices are gonna continue going up. Now, I’m not here to judge whether that’s a good thing or a bad thing, I’m just telling you how it’s functions. So the investor class increasingly benefits from asset appreciation, right? Early access to liquidity. While lower income groups often can participate in that upside. Even as their cost of living rise, because they’re not in the markets, they’re not, they don’t own assets. So again, you have to stop, you know, using how the economy feels is your primary investing signal. If you wanna protect and grow your wealth in this environment, you need to understand how policy reacts, how you know liquidity moves, how assets behave when the system is under constraint. And in other words, uh, you know. Frankly, you just need to be part of the winning class, which is the investor class. Alright, so that’s kind of, uh, hopefully that made sense to you. Here’s another prediction for you, and this is probably more related to some of the things that we talk about usually, but I’ll say that multifamily and commercial real estate are going to finish their washout, and the window is gonna start to really close again. I’ve talked about this. Before, you’ve probably heard me say this, but let’s talk about multifamily and commercial real estate again, because you know, this audience doesn’t need just theory. You’ve already lived through the pain or the past two years you’ve seen deals blow up, capital calls go out, refinancings fail. So the real question going on in 2026 is not whether real estate breaks. It’s already, it already did. It already did. The real question is how much longer this phase lasts and what replaces it. My view is that 2025 into early 2026, um, represents the final phase of this unwind in the beginning of stabilization. I’m not predicting an immediate boom, not a return to 2021 by any means, but the end of obvious distress. So what’s happened already from 2022 to 2024? Multifamily and commercial real estate absorbed the fastest rate shock in modern history. Many of you lived through that. I lived through that. It’s painful. Debt costs doubled or tripled. Cap rates moved hundreds of basis points. You know, bridge debt structures broke, uh, refinancing assumptions collapsed. Now, a lot of the deals, I mean, I would say most of the deals, uh, uh, that, you know, kind of imploded, uh, shared the same DNA, you know, peaking price, uh, purchases, uh, during peak prices in 2021, early 2022. Uh, you know. Floating rate thin or negative cash flow based on, you know, the rates at the time. Maybe it was positive business plans that were really dependent on refi and rent growth. Um, those deals though, have largely already defaulted, recapitalize, or, you know, they’re being quietly handed back. And that matters because markets don’t keep breaking the same wave forever. If, if you’re seeing right now and if you’re in our investor club, you are. 30% discounts on a regular basis. Right? On a regular basis compared to the peak. Don’t assume that’s gonna last. That this is the key point I wanna make very clearly. If you’re looking at multifamily or commercial deals today that are trade trading at that 30% below where they were a couple years ago, you should not assume that window stays opening. Definitely because the level of discount there, uh, the level of discount exists because. Dried up liquidity, uh, because of that violent rate reset, uh, uncertainty. But here’s the thing, markets don’t stay frozen forever and as soon as pricing stabilizes, even at higher cap rates, which are going to be higher than they were, because you’re not gonna see interest rates down at zero, capital is gonna start to move again. And stabilization doesn’t require rates to go back to zero. It just requires some level of predictability. So here’s the sequence of what happens first, you know, the distress slows, uh, you see less and less defaults, and then slowly but surely cap rates stop expanding, right? That alone brings back buyers. Then as rates drift mo lower and volatility declines, lenders reenter selectively, debt becomes a billable again. It’s not cheap. It’s definitely usable and that brings more liquidity. When I say liquidity, in this context, I’m talking about just more deals getting done. And once liquidity returns, cap rates don’t stay wide forever. They compress, right? It’s competition. And again, when they compress, they’re not gonna go back to 2021 levels, but enough to meaningfully lift asset values from distressed pricing. This can happen faster than people expect, right? People underestimate the fact that there is an enormous amount of capital sitting on the sidelines right now in money market funds, short term treasuries, private capital, waiting for clarity. That capital isn’t, you know, permanent. The moment investors believe that rates of peak, that prices of stabilized downside risks is contained, that money starts to chase yield. When it does the transition from, nobody wants this, everyone wants exposure again, can happen surprisingly fast. In other words, I’m not saying I think this will happen in 26, but the shift from a market that is on sale, which I’ve described it as to a market that is starting to look a little frothy, can really be just a couple of years. And in that situation, I’d rather be a net seller, right? You wanna be accumulating. During this phase of for sale so that you can sell in froth. So what this means is that the market is, you know, uh, is not a market to wait for everything to feel perfect, because by the time it does, the obvious discounts are gonna be gone. And if you wait for perfect clarity, you’re gonna be competing, you competing with institutional capital, with large private funds and, and, and yield hungry money coming outta cash. The opportunity is not assuming distress lasts forever. It is. It’s in recognizing when the market is transitioning from forced selling, which is what is happening even now to price discovery. So ultimately, the prediction is this multifamily and commercial real estate, that that washout is completed in 2026 and the window created by distress really starts to close. Deep discounts don’t persist. Once market stabilized, which I think is what’s gonna happen, and then I think you’re gonna start to see a shift. You’re gonna start to see more deals, more liquidity, and that’s gonna return faster than people expect. In other words, this is gonna be the end of, you know, sort of this bargain basement, you know, panic pricing. And once real assets stabilize and liquidity returns, attention inevitably turns, uh, to the currency, those assets are priced in. Which brings us to the prediction number three. That dollar, okay, the dollar doesn’t collapse, but it does continue to erode. It slowly leak, right? Let’s talk about the dollar, ’cause you hear about this all the time, right? A nausea, you hear the, the weakening of the dollar. Um, this is one of those topics that where people tend to jump to extremes. You know, on one side you hear the dollar is about to collapse. On the other side you hear the dollar’s strong and everything’s fine. I think, um, the truth is somewhere in, in the middle. And my prediction for 2026 is simple. Um, again, the dollar doesn’t really explode. It doesn’t get replaced. It can just continues to erode slowly but surely. And that’s how reserve currencies actually behave when debt gets high. Right. So why no collapse, right? Because you got like people out there, uh, worried about the collapse of the US dollar. The US dollar is gonna remain dominant, not because it’s perfect, but because there’s no real alternative at scale. There just isn’t. Okay? There’s no other currency with markets as deep, as liquid and as widely used for trade debt and collateral. So, you know, reserve currencies, you know, you hear about the, the worry about us being the reserve currency. Well, reserve currencies don’t disappear overnight. They erode gradually, but they don’t disappear overnight. And that erosion shows up not as a crash, but again as persistent inflation, right? It’s rising, you know, real asset prices, which is again, where you wanna be, and a slow loss of purchasing power over time. Again, that brings us back to the whole issue of debt we were talking about, right? So in a highly indebted system, policymakers are not incentivized to aggressively defend the currency at all costs, right? So very high interest rates might strengthen the dollar in the short term, but they also make debt harder to service and financial stress worse, right? So instead of choosing strength or collapse. Um, you know, policy drifts towards tolerance, right? Inflation is allowed to run a little hotter than people expect, because again, it’s gonna erode that debt. The currency weakens slowly, therefore, rather than violently, right? Again, currency weakening. It’s that, it, it’s so entwined with this idea of inflation because debt becomes easier to manage in real terms. And one of the things I hear, and I’ve been sort of in these conversations back and forth with, um. At least one of you out there, uh, in, in emails is that, you know, I hear, uh, that, that, that there’s a, a serious problem for interest rates because of, you know, China, uh, selling US treasuries. And because of that you might get the collapse of the dollar. In fact, in this conversation, it was not only about China, but also Europe. Which, you know, I hadn’t actually heard anybody mention that before, but I guess that’s out there in the ecosystem and some of the newsletters. Now, all that sounds scary, but it really misunderstands how the system actually works. What exactly happens when someone or a country sells treasuries? Well, they don’t dis, they, they don’t just destroy the dollars. What they’re doing is they just swap $1 asset for another, right? The dollars don’t even lead the system. They change hands. So this idea of China selling off all it t trade, well, China’s been, uh, reducing its treasury holdings for years and the dollar hasn’t collapsed. The market absorbed it because treasuries are the deepest, most liquid market in the world. And then this idea of Europe, of of Europe actually dumping treasuries because, you know, they’re not happy with Donald Trump and what he’s doing in Ukraine and all that, that would be an absolute nightmare for, for Europe. That would hurt their own economy. That’s the last thing that an indebted government wants. So foreign selling, yeah, sure it’s gonna move yields, but it, it’s not gonna implode the dollar. But the reality of the, uh, erosion of the dollar is real. I don’t think anybody questions that anymore, and I think that is another reason that you need to be buying. Real assets. You need to be buying equity. You need to be on the side of the investor class. Okay? That’s, that’s how you combat all of this. So the real takeaway here ultimately is that, you know, it isn’t, uh, to abandon the dollar, right? It isn’t. It’s, it’s just to stop pretending that holding cash is neutral. It’s not, it, most of your wall suits and assets that, that can’t adjust. You know, they can’t grow as, you know, as, as asset prices grow, then you’re making a bet on currency stability that literally no one believes is, is going to be the base standard anymore. Everybody knows, every economist, every country, every everywhere knows that these currencies are eroding. You don’t freak out about the dollar, but don’t, don’t, don’t be like heavily in dollars. Start getting into the markets. Alright, well, you know, I’m talking a lot about esoteric macro stuff, but let’s kind of get into some stuff that you might think is fun, more fun maybe. Okay. You, a lot of you are into Bitcoin. Well, I think that, you know, Bitcoin is gonna continue to mature. And the next look, leg up looks like, you know, because of more adoption, not because of hype, which isn’t maybe not as, as, as fast and violent, but it’s, it’s, it’s a lot more predictable. For those of you who are still unfortunately listening to the likes of Peter Schiff about Bitcoin, you gotta stop doing that because Bitcoin is not tulips. Right? A lot of people still talk about it like it’s a fad that could just vanish. We’re long past that phase. Bitcoin is, is, is a $2 trillion asset and in the history of the world, there has never been a $2 trillion asset that went to zero. Is it volatile? Yeah, it is. It can absolutely continue to be wildly volatile, but you’re not going to zero. And my prediction is not overly crazy. It’s just that. Bitcoin is going to continue to increase in price, but it’s not become, not because of speculative, uh, you know, because it’s a speculative trade anymore, right? I think it’s because of adoption. Uh, adoption is going to become the real meaningful driver of market capitalization. So what do I mean by that? It just means more people are seeing it as a real asset, and it has to become, when it becomes a real asset class, everyone has to have some of it. Every major institution has to have some of it because it’s an its own asset class. And when they do that, it just drives up the entire market capitalization of that asset. And when you have an asset that has a finite amount, which in the case of Bitcoin, there will never be more than 21 million Bitcoin. You have constant adoption, constant slow, but persistent growth in market capitalization, the asset has to become more expensive. Now, what do I mean by this adoption? Well, places that you would never think in a million years, a few years ago, that that would be buying Bitcoin or you know, ETFs, B to Bitcoin ETFs are doing. So Harvard. Harvard is a great example. Because it’s not, it’s not crypto influencer, right? It’s actually one of the most conservative, brand sensitive pools of capital in the world. But their endowment management, uh, disclosed roughly 443, uh, million dollars in its position in BlackRock, uh, BlackRock, iShares Bitcoin, Bitcoin Trust, which is ibi for those of you who, who, uh, don’t know, that’s how you can just go to your New York Stock Exchange and, and buy. Bitcoin ETFs with ibit. Now, whether you love this whole Bitcoin idea or hate it or whatever, that’s a signal that is increasingly treated like a portfolio asset. It’s not a fringe experiment, and it’s not only universities. Uh, institutional comfort is it’s just there, right? Um, custody, uh, custody regulated vehicles, positioning, size, risk controls, those kinds of things are all become part of the Bitcoin uh, environment. Many countries are already holding meaningful amounts of Bitcoin. Uh, even the US has, there’s a, there is a formalized Bitcoin reserve. Now we aren’t actively buying it, but here’s an interesting thing with Bitcoin, you can, when it is, uh, the way that the US is accumulating Bitcoin is through seizures. Alright? Bad guy gets caught. His boats, his house and his Bitcoin get, uh, confiscated. So the US will sell the house, they will sell the gold, they will sell the boats, but they will keep the Bitcoin. What does that tell you? You know? And, and there’s a lot of nations that are actually openly holding and, and buying Bitcoin. I mentioned the US China. This always seems to be, uh, you know, anti Bitcoin. Well, they actually own quite a bit the UK, Ukraine, Bhutan, El Salvador. Bottom line is there’s a big change in narrative, right? That this is a real asset. So this is something that, you know, even if it’s 1% of a major, uh, institution’s assets or less than that, or whatever, it’s part of it. And that adoption alone can move prices from, from here. And that’s what I think a lot of people miss because they’re like, well, you already had a big move and you know, instead a hundred, it’s 80 or 90 or a hundred, whatever. It’s, it’s not going much better, bigger than that. Well, Bitcoin is, is actually really small relative to global pools of capital. So at this stage, adoption alone. Not even the crazy mania of the past can make a non-trivial increase in market capitalization and therefore a mark, you know, a non-trivial increase in the actual price of Bitcoin. All it’s gonna take, and you’re gonna see this, you’re gonna see more endowments, you’re gonna see more sovereign wealth pool, pensions, mod model portfolios, all they guys daisy side, when you know, even with a small allocation. It doesn’t take too much to overwhelm the available float because Bitcoin is scarce and a lot of it’s held tightly. So as far as Bitcoin goes, what do I think is gonna happen? I believe all time highs are gonna get challenged. They’re gonna get broken again in 2026, not because again, everyone’s suddenly becoming a crypto maximas, but because adoptions could just gonna continue to grow. The wild card, I should say, is that the US moving from, we hold. What we seized in terms of Bitcoin to actively acquiring reserves could be enormous catalyst. And there is a lot of talk about this right now. Um, if the market ever believes that the US is a consistent buyer, even in a constrained budget neutral way, that changes the psychology fast. And in that scenario, I think 200,000 plus, uh, $200,000 plus Bitcoin by the end of 2026 becomes very plausible. Zooming out. I’ve said this before, you may think I’m crazy, but again, because of adoption, I think that Bitcoin is at a million dollars five to seven years from now. So what does that mean for you? Well, I mean, I think at the end of the day, if you don’t own some, you might want to, I’m not gonna give you financial advice, but again, just like Harvard’s doing it, you know, major, major endowments are saying, well. You know, maybe we’ll just buy, like, you know, 2% of that, 2% of our, our, uh, endowment will be made of something like that, right? Uh, you know, it’s just even a very small amount, but exposure to it makes a lot of sense. So I think that is something to highly consider if you are still on zero when it comes to Bitcoin. All right, now here’s my last, uh, prediction. You may have heard me talking about this before as well, that AI becomes a deflationary force that policy makers finally wake up to. And I think this is actually one of the most important and misunderstood economic developments, um, that is currently already out there. But I think it’s, it’s gonna be really recognized. By the end of 2026. Okay. Artificial intelligence is gonna stop being just a tech story, and it’s gonna become a macroeconomic story. I think that by the end of 2026, artificial intelligence is clearly, uh, you know, it’s clearly, um, going to be boosting corporate earnings while beginning to materially reshape the labor force. Um, and what’s gonna happen is that central banks and policymakers are gonna start treating it. Is a genuinely deflationary force over the next several years, and they’re gonna try to have to figure out what to do about it. And again, going back to our earlier conversation, because deflation is really a real problem for a country with an enormous amount of debt. So let’s get a little bit into the whole deflationary uh, conversation. So artificial intelligence at its core is a productivity machine, right? It allows companies to produce more. Without, with fewer inputs, fewer hours, fewer people, fewer stakes and productivity always shows up in profits before it shows up in everyday life. Right now, lower cost per transaction, faster execution, fewer people doing the same amount of work, widening margins without price increases. That’s the tell. That’s when profits rise without raising prices, something deflationary is happening underneath the surface. The biggest impact there is the labor market, right? It’s gonna be impossible to ignore. And this is where the conversation really shifts because artificial intelligence doesn’t need to eliminate jobs outright to matter. It only needs to reduce the number of people required to do it, right? So you’re thinking the labor markets, you’re gonna see a lot of this. You’re gonna see more slowing in hiring. Um, even while productivity expectations rise, and I think by late 2026, the public conversation is gonna change from will artificial intelligence affects jobs someday to why aren’t companies hiring the way they used to? And of course, that’s when people are gonna start paying attention and they’re gonna notice it’s deflationary because it’s going to be because artificial intelligence is gonna push down the cost. Of services, administration, customer support, research, and eventually decision making itself. That’s why it’s, it’s deflationary, it’s structural, right? Just think of all those things you can do for so much cheaper. That is what deflation is, right? And again, we mentioned before deflation is not something central banks are comfortable with because of debt and because debt heavy systems rely on nominal growth. Deflation makes debt heavier in real terms as opposed to what we said before, which is that inflation actually erodes debt. And that is a, a very, very challenging problem. And by 2026, I think you’re gonna hear a lot about this, you know, policy problem that we have. Which is innovation versus, you know, deflation. You make a lot of money, but are still worried about retirement. Maybe you didn’t start earning until your thirties. Now you’re trying to catch up. Meanwhile, you’ve got a mortgage, a private school to pay for, and you feel like you’re getting further and further behind. Now, good news, if you need to catch up on retirement, check out a program put out by some of the oldest and most prestigious life insurance companies in the world. It’s called Wealth Accelerator, and it can help you amplify your returns quickly, protect your money from creditors, and provide finance. Financial protection to your family if something happens to you. The concepts here are used by some of the wealthiest families in the world and there’s no reason why they can’t be used by you. Check it out for yourself by going to wealthformulabanking.com. Alright, well, so that’s basically it for my, uh, predictions. And I know I’ve kind of. Off on many different tangents, so hopefully it’s useful to you at least to start thinking and doing some of your own research. Bottom line is this, I mean, as, as a investor, what can you do? I think the big story here is understanding that, um, you need to be out of the dollar and into the investor class because that that widening gap between those who have. Who own things, who own assets, and those who do not is gonna continue to widen. And so, you know, my best, uh, won’t call it advice, but my own belief is that it is a, it is a very good time to look around and look for assets that are underpriced because I think everything is going to expand and it’s gonna ex expand. Uh, and you don’t wanna be caught, you know, on the, uh, dollar side of that equation. So. That’s it for me this week on Wealth Formula Podcast. Happy New Year. I’ll see you next week. If you wanna learn more, you can now get free access to our in-depth personal finance course featuring industry leaders like Tom Wheel Wright and Ken McElroy. Visit wealthformularoadmap.com.

Commodities are going nuts right now, with copper now parabolic joining silver on the crazy train. Gold is lagging behind both, which is not a good sign for each's ability to stay on the upside. Meanwhile, at the complete other end of the commodity spectrum is oil, not just in terms of prices but key spreads in Middle East markets. One of those just flipped for the first time in years, signaling growing worries about global demand.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------What is a Eurodollar University membership? It's where understanding the monetary world isn't a mystery, it's a method.If you're serious about your financial education and want clarity in a world of volatility and massive uncertainty, you're in the right place. Mainstream education has left so many massive gaps on the most foundational concepts, making sense of everything is practically impossible otherwise. With our memberships, we'll fill in everything that you've been missing. Join us: https://web.eurodollar-university.com/eurodollar-vsl-pagehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Loss of momentum isn't just happening in the US, it is very well synchronized globally with practically the same pattern showing up everywhere. Updates from neighbors Canada and Mexico show a deepening downturn at the end of last year, especially Mexico putting up its deepest contraction since April. Over in Europe, Germany fell back bringing Italy down with it. Plus, global bellwether Switzerland experienced its own “unexpectedly” sharp setback. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------SPG Canada Manuhttps://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/78c6ddcb80cf4ef0b14fc9dc3c091c86SPG Mexico Manuhttps://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/47f22c8de61b4d54965a25c3d3c417caSPG Germany Manuhttps://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/bd3c462f68704c5ea1613f2fce2879fdSPG Italy Manuhttps://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/be3b992b4ebb4b4db3030abaff5e0bc5Bloomberg Swiss Manufacturing Contracted More Than Anticipated in Decemberhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-05/swiss-manufacturing-contracted-more-than-anticipated-in-decemberhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The number of legendary investors calling this an AI bubble continues to climb, with Howard Marks, co-founder of Wall Street giant Oaktree flatly stating if AI isn't conforming to the historical bubble pattern, it will be a first. But there are some key differences within that pattern that just aren't being fully appreciated. Starting with how this AI bubble isn't actually about the stock market. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre------------------------------------------------------------------------------EDU LIVE PRESIDENT'S DAY FEBRUARY 2026If you're a serious investor and want to capitalize on what the monetary system is signaling right now, plus deep discussions about what truly is the greatest threat we all face, join me, Hugh Hendry, George Gammon, Steve Van Metre, Brent Johnson, Mike Green at Eurodollar University's very first Live Event, President's Day Weekend February 2026. To reserve your spot just go here but you better hurry, there aren't many spots left:https://eurodollar-university.com/event-home-page---------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Bull steepening on the Treasury curve, falling energy prices especially gasoline, the final look at the US economy in 2025 shows it losing momentum again as the new year begins. In fact, even mainstream Economists, the most optimistic bunch you'll find, they're growing concerned again, with Moody's chief economist saying, quote, “nothing else can go wrong” because in his words, we're already on the edge of recession. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------S&P Global US Manu PMIhttps://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/7ca2ebfa9cce4c768e0cf449ba966293https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Check out host Bidemi Ologunde's new show: The Work Ethic Podcast, available on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.In this episode, host Bidemi Ologunde explores how private equity is reshaping U.S. housing—and why rising car-payment delinquencies may be the clearest sign of an economic downturn that doesn't look like one. If jobs are still plentiful, why do so many people feel financially underwater? Is Wall Street amplifying the housing squeeze in key markets? And what happens when Americans can't afford the cars they need to keep working?Email: bidemiologunde@gmail.comSupport for The Bid Picture Podcast comes from Intuit QuickBooks. If you're running a business, a side hustle, or just trying to stay on top of your money, QuickBooks helps you track income and expenses, send invoices, and see where things stand—without living in spreadsheets. It's tech that's meant to give you time back, so you can spend more of your attention on your life, not your tabs. If you're asked how you heard about QuickBooks, please mention The Bid Picture Podcast. Learn more at quickbooks.intuit.com.Support for The Bid Picture Podcast comes from Rula. If you're trying to build a healthier relationship with tech—setting boundaries, breaking burnout patterns, or feeling more present—therapy can help, and Rula makes it easier to find licensed mental health providers and meet by video on a schedule that fits your life. If you're asked how you heard about Rula, please mention The Bid Picture Podcast. Learn more at rula.com.Support for The Bid Picture Podcast comes from Black Rifle Coffee Company, a veteran-founded coffee brand roasting premium beans for people who love a strong start to the day. From bold blends to convenient ready-to-drink cans, Black Rifle Coffee keeps you fueled for whatever's ahead. If you're asked how you heard about Black Rifle Coffee Company, please mention The Bid Picture Podcast. Check them out at blackriflecoffee.com.Support the show

There was an explosion, a record spike – and it's not even close - in lending by European banks to European shadow banks in October and November. This spike in European bank lending wasn't some newfound enthusiasm to take on risks. It was emergency lending, a shadow bank shadow bailout which was every bit the other side of the US$ repo tightness I've been telling you about. This surge in shadow bank borrowing in euros shows how widespread and global funding pressure has already been.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis------------------------------------------------------------------------------EDU LIVE PRESIDENT'S DAY FEBRUARY 2026If you're a serious investor and want to capitalize on what the monetary system is signaling right now, plus deep discussions about what truly is the greatest threat we all face, join me, Hugh Hendry, George Gammon, Steve Van Metre, Brent Johnson, Mike Green at Eurodollar University's very first Live Event, President's Day Weekend February 2026. To reserve your spot just go here but you better hurry, there aren't many spots left:https://eurodollar-university.com/event-home-page---------------------------------------------------------------------------------The Banker Explainer: Why the IMF fears contagion from lenders' shadow bank exposurehttps://www.thebanker.com/content/0ec3d3f5-62bc-4aa1-8202-9cccb6ebc2a3Bloomberg Deutsche Bank Leads EU Lenders' Exposure to Shadow Bankshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-11/deutsche-bank-most-exposed-in-europe-to-shadow-banks-ubs-sayshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

On Today's Episode: You are not alone if the recession has you nervous about what to expect. People have real concerns about whether or not they'll be able to afford groceries, gas, and even rent! For sure you've heard that millionaires are made in recessions, but how? Jaspreet Singh is joining Tom for a second time to get you up to speed on what it takes to get wealthy during any recession. Jaspreet is the Minority Mindset guru and Chief Money Nerd at Minority Mindset Companies. He's been creating financial education videos on YouTube for years and is breaking down all the reason you don't have to be scared during a recession It's all about assets and equity. The trick is that you have to know what assets to buy and how to chill long enough to allow equity to grow its way to wealth. Recessions create buying opportunities for people with capital or money that know what to buy to come out on top. Jaspreet is a voice of reason to remember that recessions are only bad or good in relation to which side of the equation you are on. This is a must watch if you're trying to find the best route through a recession that has most people nervous and panicked. SHOW NOTES: 0:00 | Introduction to Jaspreet Singh 0:14 | Recession Opportunities That Build Wealth 23:15 | Smart Ways to Invest In Any Market 39:11 | The Mindset Trap Killing Your Wealth 48:52 | Only 3 Reasons to Save Money 1:00:49 | Building Wealth Feels Boring AF 1:17:02 | Equity Is the Name of the Game 1:28:32 | Investing Against Debt 1:43:23 | When to Use Tax Advisor 1:57:10 | 8 Financial Concepts Tom Learned Are You Ready for EXTRA Impact? If you're ready to find true fulfillment, strengthen your focus, and ignite your true potential, the Impact Theory subscription was created just for you. Want to transform your health, sharpen your mindset, improve your relationship, or conquer the business world? This is your epicenter of greatness.  This is not for the faint of heart. This is for those who dare to learn obsessively, every day, day after day. Subscription Benefits: Unlock the gates to a treasure trove of wisdom from inspiring guests like Andrew Huberman, Mel Robbins, Hal Elrod, Matthew McConaughey, and many, many, moreNew episodes delivered ad-freeExclusive access to Tom's AMAs, keynote speeches, and suggestions from his personal reading listYou'll also get access to an 5 additional podcasts with hundreds of archived Impact Theory episodes, meticulously curated into themed playlists covering health, mindset, business, relationships, and more:⁠Legendary Mindset⁠: Mindset & Self-Improvement⁠Money Mindset⁠: Business & Finance⁠Relationship Theory:⁠ Relationships⁠Health Theory⁠: Mental & Physical Health⁠Power Ups:⁠ Weekly Doses of Short Motivational Quotes  Subscribe on Apple Podcasts: ⁠https://apple.co/3PCvJaz⁠ Subscribe on all other platforms (Google Podcasts, Spotify, Castro, Downcast, Overcast, Pocket Casts, Podcast Addict, Podcast Republic, Podkicker, and more) : ⁠https://impacttheorynetwork.supercast.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices