Podcast appearances and mentions of Niall Ferguson

The Secret History of Gold comes out this week. Here for your viewing pleasure is a fim about gold based on the first chapter.“Gold will be slave or master”HoraceIn 2021, a metal detectorist with the eyebrow-raising name of Ole Ginnerup Schytz dug up a hoard of Viking gold in a field in Denmark. The gold was just as it was when it was buried 1,500 years before, if a little dirtier. The same goes for the jewellery unearthed at the Varna Necropolis in Bulgaria in 1972. The beads, bracelets, rings and necklaces are as good as when they were buried 6,700 years ago.In the Egyptian Museum in Cairo, there is a golden tooth bridge — a gold wire used to bind teeth and dental implants — made over 4,000 years ago. It could go in your mouth today.No other substance is as long-lasting as gold — not diamonds, not tungsten carbide, not boron nitride. Gold does not corrode; it does not tarnish or decay; it does not break down over time. This sets it apart from every other substance. Iron rusts, wood rots, silver tarnishes. Gold never changes. Left alone, it stays itself. And it never loses its shine — how about that?Despite its permanence, you can shape this enormously ductile metal into pretty much anything. An ounce of gold can be stretched into a wire 50 miles long or plate a copper wire 1,000 miles long. It can be beaten into a leaf just one atom thick. Yet there is one thing you cannot do and that is destroy it. Life may be temporary, but gold is permanent. It really is forever.This means that all the gold that has ever been mined, estimated to be 216,000 tonnes, still exists somewhere. Put together it would fit into a cube with 22-metre sides. Visualise a square building seven storeys high — and that would be all the gold ever.With some effort, you can dissolve gold in certain chemical solutions, alloy it with other metals, or even vaporise it. But the gold will always be there. It is theoretically possible to destroy gold through nuclear reactions and other such extreme methods, but in practical terms, gold is indestructible. It is the closest thing we have on earth to immortality.Perhaps that is why almost every ancient culture we know of associated gold with the eternal. The Egyptians believed the flesh of gods was made of gold, and that it gave you safe passage into the afterlife. In Greek myth, the Golden Apples of the Hesperides, which Hercules was sent to retrieve, conferred immortality on whoever ate them. The South Americans saw gold as the link between humanity and the cosmos. They were not far wrong.Gold was present in the dust that formed the solar system. It sits in the earth's crust today, just as it did when our planet was formed some 4.6 billion years ago. That little bit of gold you may be wearing on your finger or around your neck is actually older than the earth itself. In fact, it is older than the solar system. To touch gold is as close as you will ever come to touching eternity.And yet the world's most famous investor is not impressed.‘It gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or some place,' said Warren Buffett. ‘Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head.'He's right. Gold does nothing. It does not even pay a yield. It just sits there inert. We use other metals to construct things, cut things or conduct things, but gold's industrial uses are minimal. It is a good conductor of electricity, but copper and silver are better and cheaper. It has some use in dentistry, medical applications and nanotechnology. It is finding more and more use in outer space — back whence it came — where it is used to coat spacecraft, astronauts' visors and heat shields. But, in the grand scheme of things, these uses are paltry.Gold's only purpose is to store and display prosperity. It is dense and tangible wealth: pure money.Though you may not realise it, we still use gold as money today. Not so much as a medium to exchange value but store it.In 1970, about 27 per cent of all the gold in the world was in the form of gold coinage and central bank or government reserves. Today, even with the gold standard long since dead, the percentage is about the same.The most powerful nation on earth, the United States, keeps 70 per cent of its foreign exchange holdings in gold. Its great rival, China, is both the world's largest producer and the world's largest importer. It has built up reserves that, as we shall discover, are likely as great as the USA's. If you buying gold or silver coins to protect yourself in these “interesting times” - and I urge you to - as always I recommend The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.Ordinary people and institutions the world over use gold to store wealth. Across myriad cultures gold is gifted at landmark life events — births and weddings — because of its intrinsic value.In fact, gold's purchasing power has increased over the millennia, as human beings have grown more productive. The same ounce of gold said by economic historians to have bought King Nebuchadnezzar of Babylon 350 loaves of bread could buy you more than 1,000 loaves today. The same gold dinar (roughly 1/7 oz) that, in the time of the Koran in the seventh century, bought you a lamb would buy you three lambs today. Those same four or five aurei (1 oz) which bought you a fine linen tunic in ancient Rome would buy you considerably more clothing today.In 1972, 0.07 ounces of gold would buy you a barrel of oil. Here we are in 2024 and a barrel of oil costs 0.02 ounces of gold — it's significantly cheaper than it was fifty years ago.House prices, too, if you measure them in gold, have stayed constant. It is only when they are measured in fiat currency that they have appreciated so relentlessly (and destructively).In other words, an ounce of gold buys you as much, and sometimes more, food, clothing, energy and shelter as it did ten years ago, a hundred years ago or even thousands of years ago. As gold lasts, so does its purchasing power. You cannot say the same about modern national currencies.Rare and expensive to mine, the supply of gold is constrained. This is in stark contrast to modern money — electronic, debt-based fiat money to give it its full name — the supply of which multiplies every year as governments spend and borrowing balloons.As if by Natural Law, gold supply has increased at the same rate as the global population — roughly 2 per cent per annum. The population of the world has slightly more than doubled since 1850. So has gold supply. The correlation has held for centuries, except for one fifty-year period during the gold rushes of the late nineteenth century, when gold supply per capita increased.Gold has the added attraction of being beautiful. It shines and glistens and sparkles. It captivates and allures. The word ‘gold' derives from the Sanskrit ‘jval', meaning ‘to shine'. That's why we use it as jewellery — to show off our wealth and success, as well as to store it. Indeed, in nomadic prehistory, and still in parts of the world today, carrying your wealth on your person as jewellery was the safest way to keep it.The universe has given us this captivatingly beautiful, dense, inert, malleable, scarce, useless and permanent substance whose only use is to be money. To quote historian Peter Bernstein, ‘nothing is as useless and useful all at the same time'.But after thousands of years of gold being official money, in the early twentieth century there was a seismic shift. Neither the British, German nor French government had enough gold to pay for the First World War. They abandoned gold backing to print the money they needed. In the inter-war years, nations briefly attempted a return to gold standards, but they failed. The two prevailing monetary theories clashed: gold-backed versus state-issued currency. Gold standard advocates, such as Montagu Norman, Governor of the Bank of England, considered gold to be one of the key pillars of a free society along with property rights and habeas corpus. ‘We have gold because we cannot trust governments,' said President Herbert Hoover in 1933. This was a sentiment echoed by one of the founders of the London School of Economics, George Bernard Shaw — to whom I am grateful for demonstrating that it is possible to have a career as both a comedian and a financial writer. ‘You have to choose (as a voter),' he said, ‘between trusting to the natural stability of gold and the natural stability of the honesty and intelligence of the members of the Government… I advise you, as long as the Capitalist system lasts, to vote for gold.'On the other hand, many, such as economist John Maynard Keynes, advocated the idea of fiat currency to give government greater control over the economy and the ability to manipulate the money supply. Keynes put fixation with gold in the Freudian realms of sex and religion. The gold standard, he famously said after the First World War — and rightly, as it turned out — was ‘already a barbarous relic'. Freud himself related fascination with gold to the erotic fantasies and interests of early childhood.Needless to say, Keynes and fiat money prevailed. By the end of the 1930s, most of Europe had left the gold standard. The US followed, but not completely until 1971, in order to meet the ballooning costs of its welfare system and its war in Vietnam.But compare both gold's universality (everyone everywhere knows gold has value) and its purchasing power to national currencies and you have to wonder why we don't use it officially today. There is a very good reason: power.Sticking to the discipline of the gold standard means governments can't just create money or run deficits to the same extent. Instead, they have to rein in their spending, which they are not prepared to do, especially in the twenty-first century, when they make so many promises to win elections. Balanced books, let alone independent money, have become an impossibility. If you seek an answer as to why the state has grown so large in the West, look no further than our system of money. When one body in a society has the power to create money at no cost to itself, it is inevitable that that body will grow disproportionately large. So it is in the twenty-first century, where state spending in many social democracies is now not far off 50 per cent of GDP, sometimes higher.Many arguments about gold will quickly slide into a political argument about the role of government. It is a deeply political metal. Those who favour gold tend to favour small government, free markets and individual responsibility. I count myself in that camp. Those who dismiss it tend to favour large government and state planning.I have argued many times that money is the blood of a society. It must be healthy. So much starts with money: values, morals, behaviour, ambitions, manners, even family size. Money must be sound and true. At the moment it is neither. Gold, however, is both. ‘Because gold is honest money it is disliked by dishonest men,' said former Republican Congressman Ron Paul. As Dorothy is advised in The Wizard of Oz (which was, as we shall discover, part allegory), maybe the time has come to once again ‘follow the yellow brick road'.On the other hand, maybe the twilight of gold has arrived, as Niall Ferguson argued in his history of debt and money, The Cash Nexus. Gold's future, he said, is ‘mainly as jewellery' or ‘in parts of the world with primitive or unstable monetary and financial systems'. Gold may have been money for 5,000 years, or even 10,000 years, but so was the horse a means of transport, and then along came the motor car.A history of gold is inevitably a history of money, but it is also a history of greed, obsession and ambition. Gold is beautiful. Gold is compelling. It is wealth in its purest, most distilled form. ‘Gold is a child of Zeus,' runs the ancient Greek lyric. ‘Neither moth nor rust devoureth it; but the mind of man is devoured by this supreme possession.' Perhaps that's why Thomas Edison said gold was ‘an invention of Satan'. Wealth, and all the emotions that come with it, can do strange things to people.Gold has led people to do the most brilliant, the most brave, the most inventive, the most innovative and the most terrible things. ‘More men have been knocked off balance by gold than by love,' runs the saying, usually attributed to Benjamin Disraeli. Where gold is concerned, emotion, not logic, prevails. Even in today's markets it is a speculative asset whose price is driven by greed and fear, not by fundamental production numbers.Its gleam has drawn man across oceans, across continents and into the unknown. It lured Jason and the Argonauts, Alexander the Great, numerous Caesars, da Gama, Cortés, Pizarro and Raleigh. Brilliant new civilisations have emerged as a result of the quest for gold, yet so have slavery, war, deceit, death and devastation. Describing the gold mines of ancient Egypt, the historian Diodorus Siculus wrote, ‘there is absolutely no consideration nor relaxation for sick or maimed, for aged man or weak woman. All are forced to labour at their tasks until they die, worn out by misery amid their toil.' His description could apply to many an illegal mine in Africa today.The English critic John Ruskin told a story of a man who boarded a ship with all his money: a bag of gold coins. Several days into the voyage a terrible storm blew up. ‘Abandon ship!' came the cry. The man strapped his bag around his waist and jumped overboard, only to sink to the bottom of the sea. ‘Now,' asked Ruskin, ‘as he was sinking — had he the gold? Or had the gold him?'As the Chinese proverb goes, ‘The miser does not own the gold; the gold owns the miser.'Gold may be a dead metal. Inert, unchanging and lifeless. But its hold over humanity never relents. It has adorned us since before the dawn of civilisation and, as money, underpinned economies ever since. Desire for it has driven mankind forwards, the prime impulse for quest and conquest, for exploration and discovery. From its origins in the hearts of dying stars to its quiet presence today beneath the machinery of modern finance, gold has seen it all. How many secrets does this silent witness keep? This book tells the story of gold. It unveils the schemes, intrigues and forces that have shaped our world in the relentless pursuit of this ancient asset, which, even in this digital age, still wields immense power.That was Chapter One of The Secret History of Gold The Secret History of Gold is available to pre-order at Amazon, Waterstones and all good bookshops. I hear the audiobook, read by me, is excellent. The book comes out on August 28.Hurry! Amazon is currently offering 20% off.Until next time,Dominic This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

When high-profile food critic and journalist Giles Coren revealed he had begun attending church as a 'lapsed atheist' he joined an increasing number of people now using that label to describe themselves. Justin Brierley investigates why other public figures like Konstantin Kisin, Louise Perry, Niall Ferguson, James Lindsay and Carl Benjamin are trying out church as 'lapsed atheists'. He also hears from a new breed of thinking atheists - Alex O Connor (aka Cosmic Skeptic) and Joe Folley (aka Unsolicited Advice) on what it would take for them to believe. But what moves 'lapsed atheists' towards Christian faith? Ross Douthat, author of 'Believe: Why everyone should be religious' offers advice, and Luke Thornton a young convert from atheism to Christianity tells his story. 'Responding To The Rebirth' Conference: http://rebirthconference.net/ More info, book & newsletter: https://justinbrierley.com/surprisingrebirth/ Support via Patreon for early access to new episodes and bonus content: https://www.patreon.com/justinbrierley/membership Support via Tax-deductible (USA) and get the same perks: https://defendersmedia.com/portfolio/justin-brierley/ Give a one-off gift via PayPal: https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/brierleyjustin Buy the book or get a signed copy: https://justinbrierley.com/the-surprising-rebirth-of-belief-in-god/ Got feedback? Share it with us by emailing: feedback@think.faith Ep 19 show notes: https://justinbrierley.com/surprisingrebirth/season-2-episode-19-lapsed-atheists The Surprising Rebirth of Belief in God is a production of Think Faith in partnership with Genexis, and support from The Jerusalem Trust. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On this episode of Crazy Wisdom, host Stewart Alsop speaks with Michael Jagdeo, a headhunter and founder working with Exponent Labs and The Syndicate, about the cycles of money, power, and technology that shape our world. Their conversation touches on financial history through The Ascent of Money by Niall Ferguson and William Bagehot's The Money Market, the rise and fall of financial centers from London to New York and the new Texas Stock Exchange, the consolidation of industries and the theory of oligarchical collectivism, the role of AI as both tool and chaos agent, Bitcoin and “quantitative re-centralization,” the dynamics of exponential organizations, and the balance between collectivism and individualism. Jagdeo also shares recruiting philosophies rooted in stories like “stone soup,” frameworks like Yu-Kai Chou's Octalysis and the User Type Hexad, and book recommendations including Salim Ismail's Exponential Organizations and Arthur Koestler's The Act of Creation. Along the way they explore servant leadership, Price's Law, Linux and open source futures, religion as an operating system, and the cyclical nature of civilizations. You can learn more about Michael Jagdeo or reach out to him directly through Twitter or LinkedIn.Check out this GPT we trained on the conversationTimestamps00:05 Stewart Alsop introduces Michael Jagdeo, who shares his path from headhunting actuaries and IT talent into launching startups with Exponent Labs and The Syndicate.00:10 They connect recruiting to financial history, discussing actuaries, The Ascent of Money, and William Bagehot's The Money Market on the London money market and railways.00:15 The Rothschilds, institutional knowledge, and Corn Laws lead into questions about New York as a financial center and the quiet launch of the Texas Stock Exchange by Citadel and BlackRock.00:20 Capital power, George Soros vs. the Bank of England, chaos, paper clips, and Orwell's oligarchical collectivism frame industry consolidation, syndicates, and stone soup.00:25 They debate imperial conquest, bourgeoisie leisure, the decline of the middle class, AI as chaos agent, digital twins, Sarah Connor, Godzilla, and nuclear metaphors.00:30 Conversation turns to Bitcoin, “quantitative re-centralization,” Jack Bogle, index funds, Robinhood micro bailouts, and AI as both entropy and negative entropy.00:35 Jagdeo discusses Jim Keller, Tenstorrent, RISC-V, Nvidia CUDA, exponential organizations, Price's Law, bureaucracy, and servant leadership with the parable of stone soup.00:40 Recruiting as symbiosis, biophilia, trust, Judas, Wilhelm Reich, AI tools, Octalysis gamification, Jordan vs. triangle offense, and the role of laughter in persuasion emerge.00:45 They explore religion as operating systems, Greek gods, Comte's stages, Nietzsche, Jung, nostalgia, scientism, and Jordan Peterson's revival of tradition.00:50 The episode closes with Linux debates, Ubuntu, Framer laptops, PewDiePie, and Jagdeo's nod to Liminal Snake on epistemic centers and turning curses into blessings.Key InsightsOne of the central insights of the conversation is how financial history repeats through cycles of consolidation and power shifts. Michael Jagdeo draws on William Bagehot's The Money Market to explain how London became the hub of European finance, much like New York later did, and how the Texas Stock Exchange signals a possible southern resurgence of financial influence in America. The pattern of wealth moving with institutional shifts underscores how markets, capital, and politics remain intertwined.Jagdeo and Alsop emphasize that industries naturally oligarchize. Borrowing from Orwell's “oligarchical collectivism,” Jagdeo notes that whether in diamonds, food, or finance, consolidation emerges as economies of scale take over. This breeds syndicates and monopolies, often interpreted as conspiracies but really the predictable outcome of industrial maturation.Another powerful theme is the stone soup model of collaboration. Jagdeo applies this parable to recruiting, showing that no single individual can achieve large goals alone. By framing opportunities as shared ventures where each person adds their own ingredient, leaders can attract top talent while fostering genuine symbiosis.Technology, and particularly AI, is cast as both chaos agent and amplifier of human potential. The conversation likens AI to nuclear power—capable of great destruction or progress. From digital twins to Sarah Connor metaphors, they argue AI represents not just artificial intelligence but artificial knowledge and action, pushing humans to adapt quickly to its disruptive presence.The discussion of Bitcoin and digital currencies reframes decentralization as potentially another trap. Jagdeo provocatively calls Bitcoin “quantitative re-centralization,” suggesting that far from liberating individuals, digital currencies may accelerate neo-feudalism by creating new oligarchies and consolidating financial control in unexpected ways.Exponential organizations and the leverage of small teams emerge as another key point. Citing Price's Law, Jagdeo explains how fewer than a dozen highly capable individuals can now achieve billion-dollar valuations thanks to open source hardware, AI, and network effects. This trend redefines scale, making nimble collectives more powerful than bureaucratic giants.Finally, the episode highlights the cyclical nature of civilizations and belief systems. From Rome vs. Carthage to Greek gods shifting with societal needs, to Nietzsche's “God is dead” and Jung's view of recurring deaths of divinity, Jagdeo argues that religion, ideology, and operating systems reflect underlying incentives. Western nostalgia for past structures, whether political or religious, risks idolatry, while the real path forward may lie in new blends of individualism, collectivism, and adaptive tools like Linux and AI.

What to expect from this week's Putin–Trump summit in Alaska? Hoover Institution Director and former US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice—no stranger, she, to engaging in statecraft with Russia's enigmatic president—joins GoodFellows regulars Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster for a spirited conversation about Vladimir Putin's motives (is the summit only for domestic Russian consumption?), how to characterize the present US-Sino competition (Secretary Rice tossing cold water on “Cold War 2”), plus the sensibility of the Trump administration's threats to withhold federal research funds from leading universities in order to change campus cultures. Following that, Sir Niall recounts his recent sit-down with Argentinian president Javier Milei (is that nation's “vibe shift” real or contrived?); and tariff-agnostic John Cochrane assesses the progress of the Trump administration's ever-evolving trade strategy. Finally, the three panelists discuss the recent 80th anniversary of the only wartime use of atomic weapons and the importance of its annual remembrance.

This week we look at communion on the moon; banning Jews in Edinburgh; Kate Forbes resigns;  Lord of the Rings;  England v. India;  Country of the Week - India; Prison Officers compelled to lie; Chinese spies in the UK;  Angela Rayner and Muslim Heritage Month; Brisbane Anglicans reject Scripture; the Dutch self-generating sea wall;  the Chinese Vertical Forest City; The News Agents on the Quiet Revival;  the closure of Spurgeons College and Trinity; Feedback on Gaza; Niall Ferguson on genocide;  recognising Palestine: Major Andrew Fox on Triggernometry;  Final Word - Psalm 46  -  With music from REM; Radiohead; Booker T and the MGs;  Shankar- Essen- Loy;  Bridge Music; Golden Earring; Annie Lennox;  and Larry Norman;    

How does a young Scotsman go from struggling actor and failed politician to internationally acclaimed (and knighted) historian? In a solo installment of GoodFellows, Sir Niall Ferguson, Hoover's Milbank Family Senior Fellow, discusses his academic journey, fellow historians he admires, keys to successfully multi-tasking through life, plus how he and his spouse, Hoover Research Fellow Ayaan Hirsi Ali (who also appears in this episode), are raising their two sons. Also discussed: Sir Niall's newfound passion for sailing, his non-Scottish attitude toward golf and fishing, why he doesn't see retirement as a viable lifestyle, plus the pride he takes in a music legend recently lauding him as the “Jimi Hendrix” of his profession.   Recorded on July 30, 2025. Subscribe for clarity on today's biggest social, economic, and geostrategic shifts — only on GoodFellows.

Esta semana visitó Chile el historiador británico Niall Ferguson, quien en 2008 escribió "El triunfo del dinero", donde aborda la superación de la pobreza. El libro termina con capítulos “espejo” en el que muestra dos ejemplos: uno de “cómo hacerlo mal” y se refiere a Argentina y otro de “cómo hacerlo bien”, el que es dedicado a Chile. Al parecer se invirtieron los roles.

01:00 Pedos, https://lukeford.net/blog/?p=162310 04:00 Seeing Through the Noise: Why Ordinary People Are Less Gullible Than Elites Think, https://lukeford.net/blog/?p=162418 08:00 All men are incels: the bitter truth, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t6xYHK3lrnk 18:00 Aaron Maté: New Docs Show FBI and NSA Never Believed Trump Worked with Russia, https://lukeford.net/blog/?p=162412 20:00 AI's global race in the dark, https://www.axios.com/2025/07/27/trump-ai-race-china 33:00 The News Is Bureaucratic Stenography, https://lukeford.net/blog/?p=162374 53:40 Sex is about power: the fantasy of most men, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DWW_2k3lrcc 1:00:00 Russiagate | The NatCon Squad, https://lukeford.net/blog/?p=162420 1:07:00 How Is Majority Rule A Threat To Democracy?, https://yourmoralleader.blogspot.com/2025/07/how-is-majority-rule-threat-to-democracy.html 1:11:00 Why haven't there been brought charges yet on Russiagate?, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1bvQvwP-zcE 1:15:00 Predicting the DOJ Strikeforce on Russia Hoax | John Solomon, https://lukeford.net/blog/?p=162410 1:25:30 Tulsi Gabbard vs. the Deep State: Why She's Accusing Obama-Era Intel of Treason Over Trump-Russia, https://lukeford.net/blog/?p=162398 1:28:00 I'm sure Mark Halperin is flattered to have a belief system that makes him the puppet master. 1:44:00 Niall Ferguson claims he's primarily a historian, not a pundit, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=41sJr2Zv7EQ 1:56:00 What's driving the media's mushroom mania? | Media Watch, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VArNK4pHuf8 1:57:00 Fairness and Freedom: A History of Two Open Societies: New Zealand and the United States, https://lukeford.net/blog/?p=140864 2:06:30 The pro-Palestine on-air presenter punished for speaking out | Media Watch, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h3ic8kvAXJs 2:19:30 Bogan Intelligentsia Podcast Ep. 2: Peter Lalor on Cricket, Identity, and Media Freedom, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JbmTJpzEB7Y 2:23:30 How Credible Is Mike Benz?, https://yourmoralleader.blogspot.com/2025/07/how-credible-is-mike-benz.html 2:35:00 Jonah Goldberg Is Bill Buckley's Successor, https://yourmoralleader.blogspot.com/2025/07/jonah-goldberg-is-bill-buckleys.html 2:42:00 The Structure of Expertise, https://yourmoralleader.blogspot.com/2025/07/the-structure-of-expertise.html 2:54:00 How Tulsi Gabbard's Revelations About The Obama Administration's Abuse Of Intelligence Decodes The Rule Of Experts, https://lukeford.net/blog/?p=162387 3:00:20 WEHT to Michael Flynn?, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QbcPDF_Had0 3:02:20 Bombshell Russiagate Docs Explained, and Truth About Putin and Hillary, w/ Matt Taibbi and Ruthless, https://lukeford.net/blog/?p=162408 3:24:00 How Tulsi Gabbard's Revelations About The Obama Administration's Abuse Of Intelligence Decodes The Rule Of Experts, https://lukeford.net/blog/?p=162387 3:36:45 Trump administration uses allegations of anti-semitism to stop American institutions from discriminating against whites, asians 3:47:00 ODNI Mania, The Other January 6 & How Assange Could Shatter The Rogue Intelligence State Today, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t_eUGaUtTbw 3:56:00 RUSSIAGATE - A Major Dividing Line with Matt Taibbi | DEEP FOCUS with John Kiriakou, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KfS3KjUGE4I 4:08:10 Heidi Priebe: How To Stop Taking Things Personally, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J1ptE5Xb70k 4:12:00 Video: After the Fall: Planning for a Post-Communist China 4:21:00 The death of Ozzy Osbourne 4:24:00 The counter-culture within rock music 4:30:00 Was the Protestant Reformation a mistake?

In Part 1 of this special series focused on our brain power and whether we are losing our minds, we addressed the slide we are reported to be experiencing in terms of attention span and critical thinking capacity.  Now In Part 2 we ask what we can do now to address slide. We are joined again by Carolina Pacheco-Punceles. She is a Behavioral Economist, AI Survival Kit Creator, Executive Function Strategist and her Linked In bio states that she is Equipping Humans with the Skills to Think Clearly, Lead Wisely & Thrive in a Disrupted World We suggest that the first step is acknowledging the problem – we then discuss the idea of training our minds and “going to the mental gym”, and look at strategies from those discussed by Niall Ferguson – creating an analogue study system where books are read in paper form and discussed without the use of electronic devices, to hybrid strateiges that encourage us to harness AI without relying it on exclusively. If you enjoyed this short podcast series please send us your ideas for addressing the slide in our cognitive capacities. 

In contrast to the 20th-century bosses of industry who ran America's big cities, New York City seems poised to elect an unabashed socialist with dreams of government-run bodegas, rent freezes, and wealth redistribution. Rick Caruso, noted Los Angeles real estate developer and possible political candidate in 2026, joins GoodFellows regulars and Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster to discuss the future of America's big cities—whether his other major cities will follow Gotham's lead, plus how to bring needed change to municipalities notoriously averse to innovation (and in LA's case, a city perhaps unprepared for the 2028 Summer Olympics).  The three fellows next reflect on the Ukraine-Russia conflict, now entering its 42nd month with no end in sight, then engage in a “lightning round” that touches on Harvard's reported desire to create a Hoover Institution of its own; Hunter Biden's skewed take on illegal immigration; the Epstein scandal's effect on the MAGA movement; plus a “heated” debate over why Sir Niall and his countrymen choose to live without air conditioning.  Recorded on July 22, 2025. Subscribe for clarity on today's biggest social, economic, and geostrategic shifts — only on GoodFellows.  

To celebrate the release on July 29th of The War on Science, we have recorded 20 podcast interviews with authors from the book. Starting on July 22nd, with Richard Dawkins, we will be releasing one interview per day. Interviewees in order, will be:Richard Dawkins July 23rdNiall Ferguson July 24thNicholas Christakis July 25thMaarten Boudry July 26thAbigail Thompson July 27thJohn Armstrong July 28thSally Satel July 29thElizabeth Weiss July 30thSolveig Gold and Joshua Katz July 31stFrances Widdowson August 1stCarole Hooven August 2ndJanice Fiamengo August 3rdGeoff Horsman August 4thAlessandro Strumia August 5thRoger Cohen and Amy Wax August 6thPeter Boghossian August 7thLauren Schwartz and Arthur Rousseau August 8thAlex Byrne and Moti Gorin August 9thJudith Suissa and Alice Sullivan August 10thKarleen Gribble August 11thDorian Abbot August 12thThe topics these authors discuss range over ideas including the ideological corruption of science, historical examples of the demise of academia, free speech in academia, social justice activism replacing scholarship in many disciplines, disruptions of science from mathematics to medicine, cancel culture, the harm caused by DEI bureaucracies at universities, distortions of biology, disingenous and dangerous distortions of the distinctions between gender and sex in medicine, and false premises impacting on gender affirming care for minors, to, finally, a set of principles universities should adopt to recover from the current internal culture war. The dialogues are blunt, and provocative, and point out the negative effects that the current war on science going on within universities is having on the progress of science and scholarship in the west. We are hoping that the essays penned by this remarkable group of scholars will help provoke discussion both within universities and the public at large about how to restore trust, excellence, merit, and most important sound science, free speech and free inquiry on university campuses. Many academics have buried their heads in the sand hoping this nonsense will go away. It hasn't and we now need to become more vocal, and unified in combatting this modern attack on science and scholarship. The book was completed before the new external war on science being waged by the Trump administration began. Fighting this new effort to dismantle the scientific infrastructure of the country is important, and we don't want to minimized that threat. But even if the new attacks can be successfully combatted in Congress, the Courts, and the ballot box, the longstanding internal issues we describe in the new book, and in the interviews we are releasing, will still need to be addressed to restore the rightful place of science and scholarship in the west. I am hoping that you will find the interviews enlightening and encourage you to look at the new book when it is released, and help become part of the effort to restore sound science and scholarship in academia. With no further ado, The War on Science interviews…As always, an ad-free video version of this podcast is also available to paid Critical Mass subscribers. Your subscriptions support the non-profit Origins Project Foundation, which produces the podcast. The audio version is available free on the Critical Mass site and on all podcast sites, and the video version will also be available on the Origins Project YouTube. Get full access to Critical Mass at lawrencekrauss.substack.com/subscribe

The Battle of Pearl Harbor: a day that lived in infamy. Thousands of American servicemen were caught unaware – fish in a tropical barrel. Many died. Many lived. As a direct result of this two-hour battle, The United States of America entered the Second World War, inaugurating what Niall Ferguson called the largest hegemonic empire… Continue reading The Military History of the Battle of Pearl Harbor /// 103

Students are getting AI to write their essays and it's hard to spot the difference. Professor Niall Ferguson says AI is bad for our brains, but he has a plan to save education.This podcast was brought to you thanks to the support of readers of The Times and The Sunday Times. Subscribe today: http://thetimes.com/thestory Guest: Professor Niall Ferguson, Times Columnist.Host: Luke Jones.Producer: Shabnam Grewal.Further reading: AI's great brain robbery — and how universities can fight backFurther listening: One day in the life and death of an AI chatbotClips: Photo: Getty Images.Get in touch: thestory@thetimes.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Episode: “Bitcoin Rich List, CPI Impact, Tether Moves & UATX's Bold BTC Curriculum”Generated via: Notebook LM by Google

Send us a textThis show reflects on what it means to see the future too clearly and the cost of carrying that vision alone.A few weeks ago, America burned on the monitor behind me. Cameras rolled in Santa Monica. Steve Drobny, founder of Clocktower Group, advisor in global hedge funds, told me to sit straight, but I didn't care. We discussed the future and America's possibly undead economy.The previous night, a girl at a Venice Beach bar asked where I'm from. “The future,” I replied. She was 30, blond, beautiful blue eyes, an image I haven't shaken off. When you return from the future, you're never whole. Details are too sharp, too strange. People blink. They don't want to hear it. That's why I wear goggles. That's why they call me unhinged.Knowing what's next doesn't give control. It gives doubt. It exiles you from Main Street.I vibed on John Buchan's The Gap in the Curtain. A country house, a strange German professor, a handful of guests glimpsing a year ahead. One sees a financial headline. Distant words that unravel everything. Once you've seen what's coming, you carry it like a tumor made of light.I drew a line from that story to Saint Peter in Gethsemane. His denial wasn't betrayal; it was fear dressed as certainty. The same fear I see in markets, politics, people I've loved. We say "impossible" when scared. But the future doesn't knock. It slides in through the back door. Think of me as The Back Door Man.That's the curse, not that no one believes you, but that eventually, you stop believing yourself.Our conversation shifted between memories: Blanc Bleu, my house in St. Barts, Bitcoin, bond markets, old debates with giants like Niall Ferguson. Moments I stood and said what no one wanted to hear.Being early feels like being wrong until the chart catches up.The Curse of Knowing isn't about money, it's about myth. Trading safety for clarity. Leaving comfort to speak truths no one's ready for. It's about friends reunited, because ultimately, the only constants are those you love(d).HughSupport the show⬇️ Subscribe on Patreon or Substack for full episodes ⬇️https://www.patreon.com/HughHendryhttps://hughhendry.substack.comhttps://www.instagram.com/hughhendryofficialhttps://blancbleustbarts.comhttps://www.instagram.com/blancbleuofficial⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Leave a five star review and comment on Apple Podcasts!

Sir Niall Ferguson on time travel, Trump bombing Iran, historical counterfactuals, Doctor Who, The Time Lord, using the past to help the present and future, the University of Austin's revolutionary experiment, ChatGPT, and God possibly helping to split the atom.

Part 2 of 2 - Interview with renowned historian Niall Ferguson we discuss the new challenges facing America's economic and military dominance, as well as what they mean for investors.WEALTHTRACK episode 2152 broadcast on June 27, 2025

Buckle your seatbelts! Renowned historian Niall Ferguson warns tariff uncertainty is cascading through the economy and will eventually hit the markets.  WEALTHTRACK episode 2151 broadcast on June 20, 2025

Concerns about the fiscal trajectory of the US are nothing new. But is this time different? And what could a fiscal crisis look like? Economist Kenneth Rogoff and historian Niall Ferguson discuss with Allison Nathan. This episode explores the latest Top of Mind report. This episode was recorded on May 30, June 5, and June 17, 2025. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

No U.S. secretary of state ever achieved such celebrity while in office as Henry Kissinger; immersed in the philosophy of Kant and the diplomacy of Metternich, he was hailed as one of the most important strategic thinkers America has ever produced. Yet no former secretary of state has been more vehemently criticized, most notably for sins of omission and commission in countries such as Bangladesh, Cambodia, Chile and East Timor. In this episode – recorded live at the 2024 Writers Conference – renowned historian NIALL FERGUSON, now completing the second of his two-volume biography of Kissinger, talks to New Yorker staff writer and National Book Award-winning author EVAN OSNOS about his subject's complicated legacy and considers what he might have made of our current foreign policy landscape. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's the fourth day in the war between Iran and Israel. Many questions hang in the air. Chief among them: Will Israel be able to fulfill its main goal in the war—to end Iran's nuclear program? Will it put troops on the ground to do so, specifically to blow up Iran's most important nuclear site? Or will the U.S. get involved? Will Trump provide the bunker-busting bombs necessary to destroy the facility at Fordow? Will the regime fall—and if so, what will come next? How does this struggle fit into the much, much larger geopolitical conflict between the U.S. and China? So today, I have two experts to break it all down: Niall Ferguson and Dexter Filkins. Niall Ferguson is a historian and Free Press columnist who just wrote in our pages, “Israel's attack restores the credibility of the West.” Dexter Filkins is a longtime foreign correspondent who has reported from Iran. He is a contributor at The New Yorker, has covered this topic for years, and is the author of The Forever War. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Is China hell-bent on a move against Taiwan, or does its saber-rattling not square with a military capability that's perhaps overestimated? Frank Dikötter, a Hoover senior fellow specializing in the history of modern China, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster to discuss his reading of China's desire and ability to project power, including its manufacturing capability and its suppression of individual liberties, plus the durability of Xi Jinping's rule. Recorded on May 23, 2025.

Temas tratados en la edición de La ContraRéplica de esta semana: 0:00 Introducción 3:25 ¿Qué es la clase media? 19:07 Fuga de cerebros en España 37:03 El euro digital 46:14 Prensa económica y recomendaciones bibliográficas: - "Historia económica de la población mundial" de Carlo Maria Cipolla - https://amzn.to/3Z1FmE6 - "El desarrollo de la España contemporánea" de Gabriel Tortella - https://amzn.to/4k7x9GN - "El triunfo del dinero" de Niall Ferguson - https://amzn.to/3F89w1T Canal de Telegram de La Contra: https://t.me/+BY2epYMIWkY5NzRk · “Contra la Revolución Francesa”… https://amzn.to/4aF0LpZ · “Hispanos. Breve historia de los pueblos de habla hispana”… https://amzn.to/428js1G · “La ContraHistoria de España. Auge, caída y vuelta a empezar de un país en 28 episodios”… https://amzn.to/3kXcZ6i · “Lutero, Calvino y Trento, la Reforma que no fue”… https://amzn.to/3shKOlK · “La ContraHistoria del comunismo”… https://amzn.to/39QP2KE Apoya La Contra en: · Patreon... https://www.patreon.com/diazvillanueva · iVoox... https://www.ivoox.com/podcast-contracronica_sq_f1267769_1.html · Paypal... https://www.paypal.me/diazvillanueva Sígueme en: · Web... https://diazvillanueva.com · Twitter... https://twitter.com/diazvillanueva · Facebook... https://www.facebook.com/fernandodiazvillanueva1/ · Instagram... https://www.instagram.com/diazvillanueva · Linkedin… https://www.linkedin.com/in/fernando-d%C3%ADaz-villanueva-7303865/ · Flickr... https://www.flickr.com/photos/147276463@N05/?/ · Pinterest... https://www.pinterest.com/fernandodiazvillanueva Encuentra mis libros en: · Amazon... https://www.amazon.es/Fernando-Diaz-Villanueva/e/B00J2ASBXM #FernandoDiazVillanueva Escucha el episodio completo en la app de iVoox, o descubre todo el catálogo de iVoox Originals

Historian Niall Ferguson sits down with Margaret Hoover to assess the first 100 days of President Trump's second term and the challenges that lie ahead for the White House.Ferguson, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, contrasts Trump with FDR and considers whether his early actions will have lasting impact. He also explains why he sees Trump 2.0 as “Richard Nixon's revenge.”Ferguson criticizes Trump's efforts to end the war in Ukraine and his sweeping use of tariffs that have rattled the global economy. He also questions Trump's strategy on China and warns of a potential showdown over Taiwan.As a conservative and a former professor at Harvard, Ferguson reacts to the Trump administration's assault on Harvard and other universities, and he explains why the president needs to remember that he is “not a king.”Support for “Firing Line for Margaret Hoover” is provided by Robert Granieri, Vanessa and Henry Cornell, The Fairweather Foundation, Peter and Mark Kalikow, Cliff and Laurel Asness, The Meadowlark Foundation, The Beth and Ravenel Curry Foundation, Charles R. Schwab, The Marc Haas Foundation, Katharine J. Rayner, Damon Button, Craig Newmark Philanthropies, The Philip I Kent Foundation, Annie Lamont through The Lamont Family Fund, The Susan Rasinski McCaw Fund, Cheryl Cohen Effron and Blair Effron, and Al and Kathy Hubbard. Corporate funding is provided by Stephens Inc. 

America and China take a 90-day time-out in their dispute over tariffs; President Trump's tour of the Middle East—the first overseas trip of his second term—raises unsettling questions about both his regional strategy and his family's business dealings; and hostilities between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan raise questions of behind-the-scenes great-power machinations amidst “Cold War 2.” Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster discuss what's at stake in these various parts of the globe. After that: the three fellows debate the severity of Chinese espionage in America's universities; and how AI's ability to shortcut the learning process will impact the future of higher education.    Recorded on May 14, 2025.

Today on the show, prominent historians Niall Ferguson and Jon Meacham join the show to break down the first 100 days of President Trump's second term. They discuss the administration's foreign policy and whether there are any historical parallels to Trump 2.0.  Then, former Canadian Liberal Party leader Michael Ignatieff speaks with Fareed about how he believes Trump's nationalism provoked a wave of nationalism in Canada, carrying the Liberal Party to an unexpected victory there. Finally, tensions between India and Pakistan are high following the militant attack in Indian-administered Kashmir. Tanvi Madan of the Brookings Institution speaks with Fareed about this latest escalation.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Rejected by voters last November, the Democratic Party is perhaps afforded new life given President Trump's decline in popularity and economic uncertainty ahead. What is the party's message?  Rep. Ro Khanna, a prominent progressive voice whose California district includes parts of Silicon Valley, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster to discuss tariffs and the use of executive power, “blue state” mismanagement, the feasibility of a “Marshall Plan” for economically downtrodden parts of America, plus the chances of Democrats parting ways with their “old guard.” After that: the three fellows weigh in on the Trump presidency at the 100-day mark, the future of Catholicism after the death of Pope Francis, tax exemption for universities, their go-to takeout food (pizza yes; haggis, no), plus two April landmarks—the 250th anniversary of the Battle of Lexington and the 50th anniversary of the fall of Saigon. Recorded on April 28, 2025.

Townhall Review – April 26, 2025

Sir Niall Ferguson, renowned historian and Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, joins Azeem Azhar to discuss the evolving relationship between the U.S. and China, Trump's foreign policy doctrine, and what the new global economic and security order might look like. (00:00)  What most analysts are missing about Trump (05:43)  The win-win outcome in Europe–U.S relations (11:17)  How the U.S. is reestablishing deterrence (15:50)  Can the U.S. economy weather the impact of tariffs? (23:33) Niall's read on China (29:29)  How is China performing in tech? (33:35)  What might happen with Taiwan (42:43) Predictions for the coming world order Sir Niall Ferguson's links:Substack: Time MachineBooks: War of the World, Doom: The Politics of CatastropheTwitter/X: https://x.com/nfergusAzeem's links:Substack: https://www.exponentialview.co/ Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem Our new show This was originally recorded for "Friday with Azeem Azhar" on 28 March. Produced by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 Ltd

New York Times' bestselling author Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for an in-person episode to discuss the markets and the economy. Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia In this episode, McDonald discusses capital flows moving away from US markets. McDonald explains how European investors are pulling back following tariff policies and growing deficits. He discusses why copper, uranium, and oil services present value opportunities while predicting the possibility of "4000 gold and 4000 S&P." McDonald warns that America faces conditions with weakness in stocks, bonds, and currency simultaneously, creating what he calls a potential "Lehman moment" of uncertainty.Links: How To Listen When Markets Speak: https://www.amazon.com/Listen-When-Markets-Speak-Opportunities-ebook/dp/B0C4DFVFNR Twitter/X: https://x.com/convertbondBear Traps Report: https://www.thebeartrapsreport.com/00:00 - Introduction and welcome Larry 02:26 - Institutional investor conversations and European capital flows05:00 - American exceptionalism and crowded US investments08:24 - Understanding Wall Street research and consensus thinking10:27 - The new investing era: Niall Ferguson's insights on multi-polar world11:55 - The coming copper crisis and investment opportunity17:12 - Gold as a stable store of value compared to Bitcoin20:00 - Uranium market opportunities and tourist investors21:44 - S&P earnings projections and market indicators24:18 - Value stock opportunities in a changing market26:10 - NASDAQ vs energy stocks: the massive valuation gap28:42 - Trump's tariff policy and its global investment impact32:21 - Tariffs as both regressive tax and tax on consumption35:00 - Tariff policy creating Lehman-like uncertainty39:14 - The "emerging market" problem facing the US40:00 - Closing thoughts on democratizing financial information

During his three-decade career in academia, Niall Ferguson has explored the critical inflection points that have shaped the course of history — and the future it continues to inform.In this conversation, hosted by Aditya Agarwal and Jonathan Brebner, he delves into why we may be living through a civilizational minus one, how history leaves subtle traces of what's to come, the rise of AI, and much more.Connect with us here: 1. Niall Ferguson- https://x.com/nfergus2. Aditya Agarwal- https://x.com/adityaag3. Jonathan Brebner- https://x.com/JPBrebner4. South Park Commons- https://x.com/southpkcommons00:00 Trailer00:59 Introduction02:02 Civilizational -105:33 Warfare08:45 Media and history13:05 Tech doesn't want the past17:26 Our awesomeness knows no bounds19:34 Narrativizing your personal history26:55 Big moves framework33:22 Institutions37:15 Artificial general intelligence39:52 Vision for the future45:30 Outro

The commodities sector faces a new and uncertain world.  In this episode, we look at how to understand and how to navigatethe new Trump administration and its impact on domestic and global markets, particularly around energy and commodities using analogies from history.  What is signal…and what is noise.  Our guest is Nick Kumleben. Nick is the energy and commodities director at Greenmantle, the advisory firm founded by Niall Ferguson, focused on geopolitical and macroeconomics, taking a deep understanding of history, to learn the lessons that can be applied to today's world. They advise funds, traders, and governments.For more on experts and advisors that can support decision making in energy & commodities visit: www.encoinsights.com  

If your head has been spinning since Donald Trump walked into the White House Rose Garden  and declared “Liberation Day” last Wednesday, we don't blame you. And not just because it was nauseating watching the stock market or your 401(k) crash down, but because it wasn't clear what exactly we were looking at.  As our guest today, economic historian and Free Press columnist Niall Ferguson, wrote in our pages last week:  "Depending on your worldview, you probably think Trump's tariff blitz is one of two things. Either a committed protectionist is trying to Make America Great Again by killing “globalism,” ending “forever wars,” and bringing manufacturing jobs back to the United States. Let's call this Project Minecraft. Alternatively, an unhinged demagogue is crashing both the world economy and the liberal international order, mainly to the advantage of authoritarian regimes…But here is what is actually happening: The American empire that came into existence after the failed autarky and isolationism of the 1930s is being broken up after 80 years. Despite Trump's imperial impulses—wanting to annex Greenland, calling for Canada to become the 51st state—he is engaged right now in a kind of wild decolonization project." Whether or not you agree with Niall's conclusion, there's no question that the real story here is not about the particular tariff rate for Cambodia or Taiwan; rather, it's fundamentally about reordering America's place in the world.  Over the past decade, there's been an intense debate over what role America should play on the world stage, in geopolitics, in trade, and in technology. Trump has made a very clear set of decisions on that question. And that's the case whether or not most Americans understand the consequences. So what are the consequences when the U.S. acts unilaterally to upend the global trading system? What is the outcome when the U.S. weaponizes its own economic power? What happens when the world order, as we know it, is upended? Will these actions embolden our adversaries, or weaken them? Will this ultimately make us poorer, or better off? Has the American empire reached its end? And, was this inevitable or self-inflicted?  One note: While Bari and Niall were recording this conversation, Trump announced a 90-day pause on the reciprocal tariffs. Notably, there's no pause on the tariffs for China. In fact, it went up to 125 percent. But the point remains. And the face-off between America and China has only heated up. What does that mean? Is the twenty-first century destined to be ours, or China's? All these questions and more with Free Press columnist Niall Ferguson. If you liked what you heard from Honestly, the best way to support us is to go to TheFP.com and become a Free Press subscriber today. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Show notes / PDF & Infographic / Free Audiobook / What if I told you that America is showing the exact same warning signs as every fallen empire in history? The U.S. is now 247 years old... and according to billionaire Ray Dalio's research, empires collapse after about 250 years. This isn't a conspiracy theory - it's a pattern that's repeated for centuries. In this 15-minute StoryShots audiobook summary, you'll discover why high debt, money printing, and political division aren't random problems... they're predictable stages of decline that have happened to EVERY major power before us. But here's the good news: once you understand the pattern, you can prepare. Listen to find out how... Ray Dalio's book 'Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order' explores how nations rise and fall through predictable historical cycles. By studying 500 years of global economic history, Dalio reveals a 'Big Cycle' where empires typically emerge, build strong systems, become powerful, and then decline over approximately 250 years. This pattern is characterized by specific stages, including building robust education and technology systems, becoming financially successful, achieving military strength, and eventually facing challenges like excessive debt, wealth inequality, and political division. The book identifies three primary forces driving these historical changes: the debt and money cycle, internal disorder, and external disorder. Dalio analyzes how countries like the United States and China fit into these patterns, highlighting eight key factors that determine a nation's power, including education, competitiveness, innovation, economic output, trade, military strength, financial systems, and reserve currency status. He specifically examines the United States' current position, noting warning signs of potential decline such as high government debt, wealth inequality, political polarization, and infrastructure decay. While the book presents a potentially concerning narrative about global power transitions, it also offers practical advice for individuals, investors, and policymakers. Dalio recommends developing adaptable skills, diversifying investments across countries, learning from historical patterns, and preparing for potential economic shifts. The core message is not one of inevitable doom, but of understanding historical cycles to navigate change more effectively. By studying these patterns, individuals and societies can better position themselves to thrive during significant global transformations. Google, Apple, Facebook, Ray Dalio, Time Magazine, Hyundai, Harvard Business School, Samsung, Bridgewater Associates, Niall Ferguson, Principles for dealing with the changing World order, StoryShots, Life and Work, Empires, economics, China, United States, History, Empires, Economics, History, China, Geopolitics, Investment History follows predictable 'Big Cycles' where empires rise and fall approximately every 250 years, characterized by clear stages of emergence, success, and decline Three major interconnected cycles drive global power shifts: debt/money cycles, internal social disorder, and external geopolitical competition The United States shows multiple signs of potential imperial decline, including massive government debt, wealth inequality, political polarization, and declining infrastructure (00:00) Introduction: America's Warning Signs (00:58) Understanding Historical Patterns (02:30) About Ray Dalio (04:18) The Big Cycle of History (05:50) The Rise and Fall of Empires (07:04) Three Main Forces of Change (10:33) Eight Key Factors of National Power (14:22) The Privilege of Reserve Currency Status (16:12) Signs of American Decline (17:57) China's Remarkable Rise (19:57) Internal Problems Leading to External Conflicts (21:38) Preparing for the Changing World Order (23:20) Final Summary and Reflections (26:26) Criticism and Praise of the Book (27:45) Recommended Reads Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Niall Ferguson, preeminent historian and Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, joins this episode of Uncommon Knowledge with Peter Robinson to discuss the war and ongoing stalemate in Ukraine; the Trump administration's foreign policy and negotiations with Russia; and the broader geopolitical landscape, including the shift in Europe's defense posture as the US signals a reduced commitment to NATO. Throughout the conversation, Ferguson explores historical analogies to better understand Ukraine's position, using comparisons to South Korea and South Vietnam. He discusses China's backing of Russia and its role in what he calls Cold War II, highlighting the long-term implications of this growing alliance. The discussion also covers the shock strategy deployed by Trump and Vice President JD Vance to pressure Europe into taking more responsibility for its own defense, a move that Ferguson believes has finally awakened European leaders to their countries' security needs. Beyond Ukraine, the conversation shifts to the larger economic and military vulnerabilities of the United States, particularly in relation to China. Ferguson argues that America is no longer in a position of overwhelming strength and draws parallels between the US today and Britain in the 1930s: both as declining empires facing an emboldened adversary. He warns that while Trump's realpolitik approach may be a necessary adaptation to America's strategic limitations, its success remains uncertain. The discussion ultimately raises the question of whether this strategy will prevent a major conflict or, conversely, accelerate the decline of American global primacy. Recorded on March 14, 2025

This week: the carve-up of Ukraine's natural resources From the success of Keir Starmer's visit to Washington to the squabbling we saw in the Oval Office and the breakdown of security guarantees for Ukraine – we have seen the good, the bad and the ugly of geopolitics in the last week, say Niall Ferguson and Nicholas Kulish in this week's cover piece. They argue that what Donald Trump is really concerned with when it comes to Ukraine is rare earth minerals – which Ukraine has in abundance under its soil. The conventional wisdom is that the US is desperately short of these crucial minerals and, as Niall and Nicholas point out, the dealmaking president is driven by a nagging sense of inferiority in comparison to rare earth minerals powerhouse China. Niall and Nicholas joined the podcast to talk further. (02:19) Next: why are women having caesareans being offered sterilisation? During a routine antenatal appointment, Flora Watkins was blindsided by the opening gambit from her obstetrician: ‘Why don't we tie your tubes when we've got the baby out?' The doctor wouldn't drop it, despite Flora's objections, insisting it was ‘a very simple procedure'. Flora speaks to other women who were traumatised by these unsolicited offers and confused about why they had been targeted. Most felt it was a judgment on the number of children they ‘should' have. Only one woman had been given a medical reason. Flora joined the podcast to discuss this further, alongside Dr Janet Barter, president of the Faculty of Sexual and Reproductive Healthcare, which advises women on contraception. (18:50) And finally: when is poetry so bad that it becomes good? Sam Leith, The Spectator's literary editor, celebrates William McGonagall in the magazine – the man affectionately considered the worst poet in history. McGonagall was, as Sam says, an ‘anti-genius' who (in light of the Tay Bridge Disaster) concocted such memorable stanzas as: Beautiful Railway Bridge of the Silv'ry Tay! Alas! I am very sorry to say That ninety lives have been taken away On the last Sabbath day of 1879, Which will be remember'd for a very long time. But Sam argues that there is joy to be found in bad poetry. To discuss good poetry, bad poetry and the very fine line between them, Sam Leith joined the podcast alongside one of the more successful Dundonian poets, Don Paterson. (33:08) Hosted by William Moore and Lara Prendergast. Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

Sam Harris speaks with Niall Ferguson about the current geopolitical situation. They discuss how Trump is handling the war in Ukraine, Europe's changing relationship to the U.S., security concerns around Trump's appointees, the economic impacts of Trump's policies, how China views political turmoil in the U.S., whether democracy can withstand Trump 2.0, Elon Musk and X, free speech in the United Kingdom, Trump's plan for Gaza, and other topics. If the Making Sense podcast logo in your player is BLACK, you can SUBSCRIBE to gain access to all full-length episodes at samharris.org/subscribe.   Learning how to train your mind is the single greatest investment you can make in life. That's why Sam Harris created the Waking Up app. From rational mindfulness practice to lessons on some of life's most important topics, join Sam as he demystifies the practice of meditation and explores the theory behind it.

A one-week window into the Trump administration's worldview—the president blaming Ukraine for Russia's invasion; his vice president taking to social media to accuse a Hoover scholar of “historical illiteracy”; the US then refusing to join other UN members in condemning Russian aggression—raises the question: Is the Trump brand of confusion and controversy mere happenstance or a calculated means to an end?  American Enterprise Institute scholar, author, and columnist Matthew Continetti joins Hoover senior fellows John Cochrane, H.R. McMaster, and Niall Ferguson (the subject of the vice president's lashing on X) to discuss Trump's unorthodox style, the showcasing of executive orders, and his chances of success at home and overseas. Also discussed: the significance of Trump's firing top military brass, a $5 million “gold card” for US residency, the Washington Post's editorial shift to “personal liberties and free markets,” Scotland's rugby disappointment at the hands (and legs) of England, plus the late Gene Hackman's best performances.     Recorded on February 27, 2025.

Three weeks into the nascent Trump presidency, the question of “power” arises: how the leader of the free world uses unique words, deeds, and threats to advance America's interests globally, through a blend of grandiose promises (rebuilding Gaza), economic saber-rattling (tariffs on imported goods), and a “vibe shift” (woke bureaucracy under attack). Hoover Kleinheinz Senior Fellow Stephen Kotkin joins GoodFellows regulars Niall Ferguson and John Cochrane to discuss what such expressions of American power portend for a republic/empire showing signs of wear and tear—potentially crippling debt, a military perhaps unable to engage in multiple-theater conflicts, and more.    Recorded on February 10, 2025. 

Has academia lost its way? Professor and historian Niall Ferguson joins Preet to talk about the danger of ideological orthodoxy in universities, the state of free speech in America, and the rise of illiberalism. Plus, why he started his own school.  Then, Preet answers questions about president Trump's mental acuity, the staying power of Trump's EOs, and how to battle hopelessness.  You can now watch this episode! Head to CAFE's Youtube channel and subscribe.  Show notes and a transcript of the episode are available on our website.  Have a question for Preet? Ask @PreetBharara on Threads, or Twitter with the hashtag #AskPreet. Email us at staytuned@cafe.com, or call 669-247-7338 to leave a voicemail. Stay Tuned with Preet is brought to you by CAFE and the Vox Media Podcast Network. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

A week into Donald Trump's “second first term,” the GoodFellows drink from the proverbial fire hose trying to keep up with the news: a flurry of presidential executive orders; a freezing of US foreign aid; policy spats with multiple nations; at Davos, the world's globalists contending with MAGA; a Chinese advancement in artificial intelligence that prompted a market selloff and evokes memories of the Cold War's space race. Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster discuss the significance of the aid freeze; what Colombia's agreement to accept deportees after threats of a tariff war portends for Trump-brand foreign policy; how the times have changed at Davos's annual World Economic Forum; plus whether the emergence of China's DeepSeek app will trigger a modern-day “moonshot” within the AI sector. Next, the fellows discuss matters they deem neglected (are Russia and Iran's regimes on the ropes?), a DEI executive order, whether Trump's revoking of security clearances and dignitary protection was justified or vindictive, plus the three fellows' Super Bowl plans. Recorded on January 28, 2025.

Stephen Dubner, live on stage, mixes it up with outbound mayor London Breed, and asks economists whether A.I. can be “human-centered” and if Tang is a gateway drug. SOURCES:London Breed, former mayor of San Francisco.Erik Brynjolfsson, professor of economics at Stanford UniversityKoleman Strumpf, professor of economics at Wake Forest University RESOURCES:"SF crime rate at lowest point in more than 20 years, mayor says," by George Kelly (The San Francisco Standard, 2025)"How the Trump Whale and Prediction Markets Beat the Pollsters in 2024," by Niall Ferguson and Manny Rincon-Cruz (Wall Street Journal, 2024)"Artificial Intelligence, Scientific Discovery, and Product Innovation," by Aidan Toner-Rodgers (MIT Department of Economics, 2024) EXTRAS:"Why Are Cities (Still) So Expensive?" by Freakonomics Radio (2020)

We're diving into the seismic shifts reshaping America and their ripple effects on Irish identity abroad. With the inauguration of Donald Trump marking the ultimate vibe shift in global politics, we explore how Irish America has evolved, from Kennedy-esque liberals to MAGA-loving MMA enthusiasts like Dana White. Joined by historian Niall Ferguson, we discuss Trump's anti-fragile rise, the decline of woke culture, and how Ireland needs to rethink its relationship with its diaspora in this new era.  Join the gang! https://plus.acast.com/s/the-david-mcwilliams-podcast. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Donald Trump's “second first term”—an oddity of winning nonconsecutive presidential elections—begins with talk of dramatic policy shifts at home and abroad.  Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson and “Trump 45” veteran H.R. McMaster discuss the odds of a successful second Trump presidency; whether the man himself has changed; the most salient questions to ask Pentagon and State Department secretary-designates; whether Elon Musk's government reform will be more DOGE or dog; what America's allies and adversaries are thinking; plus the seriousness of acquiring Greenland or other Trump-speculated land grabs (Canada, the Panama Canal).  After that: the fellows opine on where the Biden presidency went off the rails (are historians to blame?), followed by a look at LA's devastating wildfires and California's shifting political landscape (the conflagration straight out of the pages of Niall's 2021 book Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe), plus what prompted Mark Zuckerberg to abandon Meta's fact-checking and DEI programs. Recorded on January 15, 2025.

The New Year's Day attack in New Orleans has us taking a closer look at Jihad and Islam. And there's been a spike in Bible sales this year. John and Maria look for reasons why. They also discuss the life and faith of former President Jimmy Carter. __________ Recommendation Tom Holland on How Christianity Remade the World by Bari Weiss Segment 1 - New Year's Day Terrorism CNN: New Orleans attack news AP: Cybertruck exploded outside Trump's Las Vegas hotel The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order by Samuel Huntington What ISIS Really Wants by Graeme Wood Open Doors Report NYT Matter of Opinion Podcast: An Atheist's Case for More Christianity in Politics BBC: Badenoch calls for national inquiry into 'rape gangs' Segment 2 - Bible Sales Up Dramatically FOX: Bible sales are booming, despite a decline in religiosity Niall Ferguson on becoming a Christian Atheism Without Reason by Sarah Haider Tom Holland on How Christianity Remade the World by Bari Weiss Segment 3 - Remembering Jimmy Carter __________ Become a monthly partner for the Colson Center at colsoncenter.org/monthly.  Register for the 2025 Colson Center National Conference at colsonconference.org.

This past year was not easy. But 2024 certainly was eventful. Joe Biden dropped out of the race at the eleventh hour, and Kamala Harris's swift anointment brought us the joy of Brat summer. There was not one, but two assassination attempts against Donald Trump; the continued wars in Ukraine, Israel, Gaza, and Lebanon; the sudden and surprising fall of the Assad regime in Syria; the murder of a CEO (and Luigi Mania); mystery drones over New Jersey; and finally, Trump's decisive reelection to the White House.  On a cheerier note, 2024 was also the year of breakdancing at the Paris Olympics; Claudine Gay's resignation from Harvard; SpaceX's first commercial spacewalk; and Israel's epic spy-thriller, pager-explosion attack on Hezbollah—not to mention they took out Hezbollah's Hassan Nasrallah and Hamas's Yahya Sinwar as well.  So, what will 2025 bring?  We are starting the year, as we did last December, with a special 2025 predictions episode of Honestly. We called up some friends of the pod—people we trust in their fields—to get a better sense of what's in store for the year ahead.  Political analyst and former spokesperson at the Department of Justice Sarah Isgur tells us what we can expect in the Trump 2.0 White House. Linguist John McWhorter looks at new words and how language will evolve in the coming months. Our very own Suzy Weiss talks us through the cultural calendar. Stylist Leandra Medine clues us in on fashion trends in 2025, and last but not least: Historian Niall Ferguson tells us, as he did last year as well, whether or not we're right to have nightmares about World War III—but for real this time.  Some guests cheered us up, whereas others freaked us out. All of them were a pleasure to talk to. We hope you enjoy these conversations with some of our favorite people.   If you liked what you heard from Honestly, the best way to support us is to go to TheFP.com and become a Free Press subscriber today. *** This show is proudly sponsored by the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression (FIRE). FIRE believes free speech makes free people. Make your tax-deductible donation today at www.thefire.org/honestly. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Kemi Badenoch just became the first black woman to lead the UK's Conservative Party, the oldest in British politics, colloquially known as “the Tories.” She's also 44, has three children, grew up in Nigeria, actually worked at McDonald's (unlike some American politicians who have claimed to), didn't go to Oxford or Cambridge, and has a master's degree in computer engineering. Not exactly your typical Tory party leader profile. But it's Kemi Badenoch who has just inherited a Conservative Party that has dominated British politics for decades until Labour Party leader Keir Starmer became prime minister earlier this year. The Britain that Starmer inherited—the Britain that Conservatives like David Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, and Rishi Sunak left behind—is a country with enormous debt, a shrinking GDP, a huge immigration challenge, and arguably a national identity crisis. Or as Free Press columnist and British historian Niall Ferguson has bleakly put it, “it seems that the UK has a national suicide wish.”  Can Kemi Badenoch, the woman who has been compared to Margaret Thatcher, turn her party—and ultimately, her country—around? How will the rising star in British politics offer something different than the past five Tory leaders who served before her? And can she beat out not just the Labour left but also the growing threat from a very energized hard right?  If you liked what you heard from Honestly, the best way to support us is to go to TheFP.com and become a Free Press subscriber today. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Niall Ferguson is an intellectual provocateur. His specialty is counterfactual history — imagining how events could have unfolded differently. And he and Adam disagree on nearly everything. In this episode, Niall and Adam have a vigorous debate about the vital qualities of effective leadership in government, sports, business, and education. Available transcripts for ReThinking can be found at go.ted.com/RWAGscripts

I sat down with Niall Ferguson to discuss who the villain of WWII was. --- Today's Sponsor: Tax Network USA - Seize control of your financial future! Call 1-800-958-1000 or visit http://www.TNUSA.com/Shapiro