Podcasts about our world in data

Whether it's people giving themselves goat blood transfusions in an effort to maintain their youth, or yet another influencer telling you to buy XYZ miracle supplements, anti-ageing is big business. In the first part of what will surely become a longer Studies Show series, Tom and Stuart look at the evidence for a few supposed “breakthrough” treatments that can slow down ageing: rapamycin, metformin, winding back the epigenetic clock, and calorie restriction.The Studies Show is brought to you by Works in Progress magazine. This week we talked about their new article on “through running”—the deceptively simple idea of not having trains stop at the edge of town and instead running them right through the centre. It seems obvious if you live in London, but it wasn't always this way. Check out the article for a detailed, nerdy discussion about how we can make trains—and therefore citites—better.Show notes* New meta-analysis on rapamycin and ageing* Website for Bryan “n = 1” Johnson and his related health claims* Our World In Data on life expectancy and about the reasons why it increased* Meta-analysis on methylation and the “biological clock” as a predictor of longevity* The STAP stem cell debacle* 2016 study using Yamanaka factors to slow down ageing in mice* 2023 study of the same idea on wild-type mice, showing a 109% increase in life expectancy* 2014 Scottish study on diabetes, metformin, and life expectancy* Critical letter noting the study's flaws* Failed replication from Denmark in 2022* The NIH's Interventions Testing Program* Older review of calorie restriction and ageingCreditsWe're grateful to Andrew Steele for talking to us for this episode. The Studies Show is produced by Julian Mayers at Yada Yada Productions. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thestudiesshowpod.com/subscribe

Aujourd'hui on va parler… protéines ! Saviez vous que leur nom vient du grec protos, ‘le premier' —  les protéines sont partout dans notre alimentation, mais souvent mal comprises. Surtout quand on parle de protéines végétales : sont-elles aussi complètes ? Aussi efficaces ? Et peut-on vraiment faire un bon gâteau… sans casser un œuf ?Pour répondre à tout ça, nous avons invité Oscar, un ami de longue date. C'est un puits de science et un vrai chef !. Il va nous expliquer comment il a inventé des produits bluffants, où la protéine végétale tient le haut du plat. Allez, on démêle tout ça ensemble — avec rigueur, mais sans prise de bec !Pour aller plus loin Oscar nous recommande :Notre site internet: theveryfood.co ; et notre super BD, le lien est dans le descriptif (https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/63b2e38aaced60a858f6ac53/652d4c991f3b9a2db2c709ee_Copy%20of%20Plaquette%208%20pages%20finale%20ENG-compressed_4.pdf)Une excellente ressource internet documentée : Our World In Data (https://ourworldindata.org/) , particulièrement la page : https://ourworldindata.org/less-meat-or-sustainable-meatEt un livre que je recommande souvent : Nourrir le monde sans dévorer la planète, de George Monbiot.

There are an awful lot of things to worry about in the world. Are “superbugs” among them? That is, how worried should we be that bacteria will develop resistance to our best antibiotics, meaning infections will run rampant and even basic surgery is out of the question?In this episode of The Studies Show, Tom and Stuart wash their hands and then dig in to the evidence on the coming antimicrobial crisis. Exactly how many deaths can we expect from untreatable resistant infections? Turns out the question is, ahem, resistant to easy answers. (Sorry).The Studies Show is brought to you by Works in Progress magazine. Every issue, every article, gives you a new perspective on a topic you thought you knew about, or a totally new topic to think about. In their most recent issue, you can read about inflation, ancient scrolls and AI, genetic engineering, and the evolution of coffee. We're grateful that they support the podcast; you can read their whole site for free at worksinprogress.co.Show notes* Andreas Bäumler on “the coming microbial crisis”* Possible source for how many people used to die in surgery * BMJ article on the evidence (or lack of) showing that completing an antibiotic course is necessary* Satirical post on how the length of a course is calculated* Our World In Data on how many people die from cancer each year* UK Government review of antimicrobial resistance (from 2014), giving the 10m figure. * More mentions of 10m here (NHS), and here (Guardian)* 2016 paper in PLOS Medicine criticising the modelling that led to the 10m figure* September 2024 paper in the Lancet with a more up-to-date calculation* EU report on how MRSA rates dropped* Article on the wildly successful UK attempt to cut MRSA infections* Study on how many antibiotics are in the clinical “pipeline”* Thread on studies showing that using antibiotics prophylactically cut child mortality in sub-Sarahan Africa by 14%Credits* The Studies Show is produced by Julian Mayers at Yada Yada Productions. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thestudiesshowpod.com/subscribe

Welche Rolle spielt Softwareentwicklung im Datenjournalismus?Datenjournalismus ist eine spezialisierte Form des Journalismus, die u.a. darauf abzielt (offene) Daten (und somit auch interessante Fakten) durch interaktive Visualisierungen und Diagramme zugänglich zu machen. Doch um ein konsumierbares Ergebnis zu erhalten, ist viel Arbeit notwendig. Was steckt also dahinter?In dieser Episode sprechen wir mit Michael Kreil. Michael ist freier Datenjournalist und gibt uns Einblicke in seine Arbeit. Wir klären, was Datenjournalismus eigentlich ist, inwieweit das ganze in Relation zu Data Analytics oder Data Science steht, woher eigentlich die Arbeitsgrundlage, also die Daten, stammen, wie viel Software-Engineering in diesem Prozess involviert ist, welche handwerklichen Fehler bei der Arbeit mit Daten gemacht werden können, aber auch wie Datenjournalisten für Open Data und “Public Money, Public Code oder Public Data” kämpfen.Bonus: Wenn Daten präsentiert werden, schalten Menschen ihren Kopf aus.Das schnelle Feedback zur Episode:

China hat sich zum Ziel gesetzt, bis 2030 eine Trendwende bei den CO2-Emissionen zu erreichen. Studien deuten darauf hin, dass es schon dieses Jahr gelungen sein könnte. Seit dem zweiten Quartal gehen Emissionen zurück. Und auch wenn China vieles nicht richtig macht und das System eine Diktatur ist, sollten wir uns fragen, was wir daraus lernen und wie wir es besser machen können. Stattdessen konstruieren einige daraus Ausreden, nichts tun zu müssen und stattdessen die alten Fehler beizubehalten. China: Per capita: how much CO2 does the average person emit? (Our World In Data) https://ourworldindata.org/co2/country/china Chinas CO₂-Emissionen sind erstmals seit der Coronapandemie gesunken (Die ZEIT, Mai 2024) https://www.zeit.de/wissen/umwelt/2024-05/klimakrise-china-co2-emissionen-rueckgang-erneuerbare-energien China ist der weltgrößte Emittent, nun aber sinken die CO₂-Emissionen. Kann das von Dauer sein? (Der Standard, August 2024) https://www.derstandard.at/story/3000000232441/china-ist-der-weltgroesste-emittent-nun-aber-sinken-die-co-emissionen-kann-das-von-dauer-sein GesternKleberFails - FAZ: Die Energiewende koste 1,2 Billionen und werde “irrsinnig teuer” (GesternKleber Fails, Mai 2024) https://youtu.be/K0v3r-C8p0M Kommentar: "Aber die Chinesen sind viel schlimmer" https://www.linkedin.com/posts/mariobuchinger_gesternkleber-china-energiewende-activity-7229524278260428800-BUg8

Remember when they were coming to take your gas stove away? Every so often a study about the effects of air pollution on health goes viral, and we're reminded again that seemingly innocuous objects—like your kitchen cooker—could be bad for us in unexpected ways. How bad is air pollution? And is it getting any better?In this episode of The Studies Show, Tom and Stuart look into the science of air pollution, trying to separate correlation from causality, and working out what scientists mean when they say that deaths are “attributable” to something (it's more complicated than you think!).The Studies Show is brought to you by Works in Progress magazine. We usually mention their long-form pieces at worksinprogress.co, but they also have a Substack newsletter at worksinprogress.news with shorter articles on the same topics. We commend it to you, and thank Works in Progress for sponsoring the podcast.Show notes* Recent news about “Ella's Law” in the UK* Tom's 2019 Unherd article on air pollution* “Death risk from London's toxic air sees ‘utterly horrifying' rise for second year running”* The Our World In Data “Deaths by Risk Factor” graph* 2024 BMJ Open article about the health risks of coal power stations* Dynomight's long article on air quality* The 1952 “Great Smog of London”* More useful Our World In Data articles:* An explainer on “attributable fractions” and summing up multiple risk factors* On indoor air pollution* Deaths from outdoor pollution* Death rate from outdoor pollution* Deaths from outdoor pollution vs. GDP per capita* The WHO calls indoor air pollution “the world's single largest environmental health risk”* More on attributable fractions, with some examples* Example of an experimental study on the effects of air pollution* The article that sparked the Great Cooker Controversy of 2023* Example of the media coverage at the time* Biden forced to rule out a ban on gas cookers* Recent story on how there's “no safe level” of PM2.5* Based on this 2024 paper in the BMJ* How policy interventions can reduce (and have reduced) air pollution* London report on the effect of ULEZCreditsThe Studies Show is produced by Julian Mayers at Yada Yada Productions. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thestudiesshowpod.com/subscribe

An apparent "success story" of Amazonian forest conservation motivates a 6-years investigation of the land sparing hypothesis. Dr. Gregory Thaler's new book, Saving a Rainforest and Losing the World, reveals a tragic belief that agricultural intensification will solve our problems of enduring extraction of the world's biodiversity. Episode Links Saving a Rainforest and Losing the World: Conservation and Displacement in the Global Tropics. Yale University Press Roser, Max. 2024. Why Is Improving Agricultural Productivity Crucial to Ending Global Hunger and Protecting the World's Wildlife? Our World in Data. Phalan BT. 2018 What Have We Learned from the Land Sparing-sharing Model? Sustainability. 10(6):1760.  Scientists calling the apparent Brazilian halting of deforestation "one of the great conservation successes of the twenty-first century," in Nature Food For an excellent review of the Land Sparing / Land Sharing debate see: Claire Kremen, Ilke Geladi (2024). Land-Sparing and Sharing: Identifying Areas of Consensus, Remaining Debate and Alternatives, Editor(s): Samuel M. Scheiner, Encyclopedia of Biodiversity (Third Edition), Academic Press, 435-451, ISBN 9780323984348.  OR Land Spares Feel Their Oats, Land Food nexus Ritchie, Hannah. 2021. Palm Oil. Our World in Data. An example of the "active land sparing argument." The green revolution: Patel, R. (2013). The long green revolution. The Journal of Peasant Studies, 40(1), 1-63. An argument for the "forest transition model" as it applies to Brazilian forests.   Landscapes is produced by Adam Calo. A complete written transcript of the episode can be found on Adam's newsletter: Land Food Nexus. Send feedback or questions to adamcalo@substack.com or https://bsky.app/profile/adamcalo.bsky.social  Music by Blue Dot Sessions: “Kilkerrin” by Blue Dot Sessions (www.sessions.blue).

Vegan Diet Reduces Land Use by 75%  by Hannah Ritchie of Our World In Data at VeganSustainability.com   Original post: https://vegansustainability.com/vegan-diet-reduces-land-use-by-75/     YouTube Video - Dr. Thomas Nemecek on Agriculture's Environmental Impact   Vegan Sustainability Magazine is a free, online, quarterly magazine for vegans and non-vegans worldwide who are interested in the Environment and Sustainability. It's rooted in a non-violent ethos that advocates love and compassion for all living beings. They promote a sustainable lifestyle that meets human needs without compromising the ability of other species to meet their needs for present and future generations.   How to support the podcast: Share with others. Recommend the podcast on your social media. Follow/subscribe to the show wherever you listen. Buy some vegan/plant based merch: https://www.plantbasedbriefing.com/shop  Follow Plant Based Briefing on social media: Twitter: @PlantBasedBrief YouTube: YouTube.com/PlantBasedBriefing  Facebook: Facebook.com/PlantBasedBriefing  LinkedIn: Plant Based Briefing Podcast Instagram: @PlantBasedBriefing   #vegan #plantbased #plantbasedbriefing #vegansustainability #altproteins #cultivatedmeet #earthday #climatechange    

“The idea is to go from numbers to information to understanding” Hans Rosling   This week's podcast is a fascinating conversation from our recent Everything Electric London expo live stage between Robert and data scientist Hannah Ritchie.   Quoting Hans Rosling as one of the key thought leaders who really opened her mind to the power of data, Hannah takes Robert through her work as a data scientist, senior researcher and deputy editor at ‘Our World In Data'.   And as a bonus, we've also included Hannah's first Fully Charged podcast recording from last year for those who missed that, or who would like to listen to it again.   Find out more about Hannah's work here: https://ourworldindata.org/ Find us on Youtube:   Fully Charged Show: https://www.youtube.com/@fullychargedshow Everything Electric Show: https://www.youtube.com/@EverythingElectricShow     Why not come and join us at our next Everything Electric expo: https://everythingelectric.show       Support our StopBurningStuff campaign: https://www.patreon.com/STOPBurningStuff   Become a Fully Charged SHOW Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/fullychargedshow   Buy the Fully Charged Guide to Electric Vehicles & Clean Energy : https://buff.ly/2GybGt0       Subscribe for episode alerts and the Fully Charged newsletter: https://fullycharged.show/zap-sign-up/   Visit: https://FullyCharged.Show Find us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/fullychargedshw Follow us on Instagram: https://instagram.com/fullychargedshow   #FullyChargedPodcast #ourworldindata #hannahritchie #datascience      Tags: Robert Llewellyn Fully Charged Show Podcast Fully Charged Show Everything Electric LIVE Hannah Ritchie Our World In Data

In this episode we talk to Dr. Hannah Ritchie, Deputy Editor and Lead Researcher at Our World In Data and author of the Not The End of the World, How We Can Be The First Generation to Build a Sustainable Planet. Dr. Ritchie talks about her personal journey from a climate pessimist ready to switch careers to a data scientist explaining why the world can transition to a sustainable future. We discuss how China and India are becoming greener at a much faster rate than western countries did as they developed. We also talk about why electrification is so important and the role for nuclear and gas power in that process. She explains why food systems play an important role in emissions and the surprising list of individual actions that help - and also hurt - the environment. -----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Hannah on LinkedIn and Read her Book.Episode TimeStamps: 02:22 - Introduction to Hannah Ritchie09:17 - How does Hannah describe herself and her work?10:56 - How has global CO2 emission developed?16:01 - How is China managing their intermittency problem?19:10 - How does nuclear play a role for our future?21:53

Hannah Ritchie is a data scientist, senior researcher at the University of Oxford and Deputy Editor at Our World In Data. Climate alarmism dominates headlines, painting a grim picture of impending global catastrophe. But what if the actual data reveals a less worrying situation, one where we don't all end up in a fiery inferno? Expect to learn why everyone thinks the world is doomed due to climate change and what we can do about it, why people are more pessimistic about the world than the data suggests, what the actual research shows about climate change, whether concerns about ocean plastics are being over exaggerated, if we're in a mass extinction event, Hannah's thoughts on population degrowth and much more.... Sponsors: See discounts for all the products I use and recommend: https://chriswillx.com/deals Get 5 Free Travel Packs, Free Liquid Vitamin D and more from AG1 at https://drinkag1.com/modernwisdom (discount automatically applied) Get an exclusive discount from Surfshark VPN at https://surfshark.deals/MODERNWISDOM (use code MODERNWISDOM) Get a Free Sample Pack of all LMNT Flavours with your first box at https://www.drinklmnt.com/modernwisdom (automatically applied at checkout) Extra Stuff: Get my free reading list of 100 books to read before you die: https://chriswillx.com/books Try my productivity energy drink Neutonic: https://neutonic.com/modernwisdom Episodes You Might Enjoy: #577 - David Goggins - This Is How To Master Your Life: http://tinyurl.com/43hv6y59 #712 - Dr Jordan Peterson - How To Destroy Your Negative Beliefs: http://tinyurl.com/2rtz7avf #700 - Dr Andrew Huberman - The Secret Tools To Hack Your Brain: http://tinyurl.com/3ccn5vkp - Get In Touch: Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/chriswillx Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/chriswillx YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/modernwisdompodcast Email: https://chriswillx.com/contact - Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: A simple and generic framework for impact estimation and attribution, published by Christoph Hartmann on February 4, 2024 on The Effective Altruism Forum. TL;DR Building on the logarithmic relationship between income and life satisfaction, we model the purchase of goods as an exchange of money for life satisfaction. Under that lens, a company's impact on the life satisfaction of its customers is the income-weighted sum of the company's revenue. By comparing the company's revenue with its cost structure, we can attribute the relative share of impact to the company's employees, suppliers, and shareholders. While this approach primarily focuses on for-profit companies, it can be extended to NGOs by reframing them as companies selling attribution of their primary impact for donations. In this framework, an NGO's impact is then twofold: It's primary impact, sold and attributed to the donor, and it's secondary impact on the life satisfaction of the donor, attributed to the employees and other cost drivers. This approach is not a substitute for measuring any impact beyond life satisfaction of consumers. It cannot replace studies on the primary impact of NGOs or impact on factors beyond life satisfaction, like the environment. You can use this framework to compare the impact of companies when deciding between jobs, to compare the impact of donations to the impact from a job, or use it as a guide on how to attribute the impact of a for-profit or NGO to it's customers, employees and suppliers. The corresponding spreadsheet can be used to apply this framework to any company using commonly available data. Idea: Using money as a proxy for impact Impact estimation is a dark art: Complex spreadsheets with high sensitivity to parameters, convoluted theories of change, cherry-picked KPIs that can't be compared between two organizations, triple-counting of the same impact for multiple stakeholders, missing studies to back up assumptions. I am working for a social enterprise and in the five years I've been here I tried to estimate impact a couple of times and always gave up frustrated. In this article I am trying to turn impact estimation around: Instead of trying to estimate impact from detailed bottom-up models, I will take a top-down approach and work with one measure that works for almost anything: money. At its heart, money represents value delivered and I want to see how far we can take this to estimate impact. I will guide you through this in three steps that you can also follow and adjust in this spreadsheet: We will start with estimating the impact of a donation to GiveDirectly. From this we will derive income-weighted revenue as a proxy measure for impact. With this we can then estimate the impact of a market stand as a simple example and then generalize to any organization[1], any job, and the impact of shareholders. Finally we'll try to apply this approach to a few examples, look at the extremes, and see how everything holds up. The impact of a cash transfer Let's start with estimating the impact of a donation to GiveDirectly. Most readers are probably familiar with the relation between income and life satisfaction: Life satisfaction is highly correlated to the logarithm of income - at low income levels life satisfaction grows fast with income while at high income levels extra income will have almost no effect on life satisfaction. This holds both when compared between countries and for different income levels within countries. Our World In Data for more details on this. We can use this relationship to estimate the impact of donating to GiveDirectly: Let's say we are looking at a pool of donors whose average yearly income is $50k. That would mean they have, on average, a life satisfaction of about 6.9 Life Satisfaction Points (LSP). Then when they donate ten percent of thei...

In Episode Twelve we welcome Tanya Haffner RD. Tanya is a registered dietician, and leads on healthy and sustainable diets strategy and partnerships to help people, organisations and businesses to elevate their nutrition and sustainable credentials.  She's an academic author and has recently co-written a food research policy paper with City University, London entitled: “The food marketing environment: A force for or against human and planetary health”. She is also current Chair of the British Dietetic Association Sustainable Diets Group, helping the BDA to embed sustainability across the dietetic and nutrition professions. Tanya is CEO of Nutrilicious ( https://nutrilicious.co.uk/)  as well as My Nutri Web (https://mynutriweb.com/) . My NutriWeb Sustainable Diets Course that Clare is doing: https://courses.mynutriweb.com/courses/sustainable-diets:-fundamentals-for-human-and-planetary-health My NutriWeb are kindly offering our listeners a code for £20 off: sd1pbhp20 BDA One Blue Dot Diet Project: https://www.bda.uk.com/resource/one-blue-dot.html Eat Lancet: https://eatforum.org/eat-lancet-commission/ FAO Sustainable Diets: https://www.fao.org/3/ca6640en/ca6640en.pdf Books Discussed: https://www.waterstones.com/book/diet-for-a-small-planet-20th-anniversary-edition/frances-moore-lappe/9780345321206 Studies Discussed: https://josephpoore.com/Science%20360%206392%20987%20-%20Accepted%20Manuscript.pdf https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m2322 https://foodresearch.org.uk/publications/the-food-marketing-environment-a-force-for-or-against-human-and-planetary-health/ IPCC Report: https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl?s=plant-based+diet UK Climate Change Committee Net Zero: https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/net-zero-the-uks-contribution-to-stopping-global-warming/ Our World In Data: https://ourworldindata.org/ https://ourworldindata.org/faqs-environmental-impacts-food WWF Data: https://www.worldwildlife.org/initiatives/food ELM Scheme: https://defrafarming.blog.gov.uk/2023/01/26/environmental-land-management-schemes-details-of-actions-and-payments/

For our last episode of Reasons to be Cheerful in its current form, Hannah Ritchie from Our World In Data tells us why things are more cheerful than we might think when it comes to the long-term trends and talks about her forthcoming book on what we do to make a sustainable world. Then Ed's podcast crush David Runciman reflects on our 6 years, what we have witnessed and how our political system can become fit for purpose. Plus tears, thank yous, Oscar-style tributes and emosh....but don't worry we'll be back in your feed next week with our cheerful chatteroo so we feel like it's not really properly goodbye.... Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

My friend Cara and I talk about CO2 emissions. We answer questions from a questionnaire that the WWF UK put together to help us calculate how carbon footprint. Which one of us is the more environmentally friendly? Listen to find out. If you'd like to improve your spoken English skills with movies, Cara is giving a live class on October 27th (2023) called ‘3 Simple Ways To Use Subtitles To Advance Your Spoken English With Netflix'. You'll learn how to use your favourite film to improve your speaking, listening and pronunciation by yourself. Find out more and sign up here. Episode Links Take the questionnaire: https://footprint.wwf.org.uk/ Get in touch with Cara: https://leo-listening.com/ A link about the environmental impacts of food: https://ourworldindata.org/environmental-impacts-of-food Hannah Ritchie, who works at Our World In Data, wrote about the nutritional value of different types of milk: https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/nutrition-plant-milks www.fabiocerpelloni.com

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: The lost millennium, published by Ege Erdil on August 24, 2023 on LessWrong. Note: This post is speculative, and you should take the claims in it with a grain of salt. Throughout human history, we know that economic growth, for which population growth was a good proxy under Malthusian conditions, has accelerated many times. Indeed, we can see this just by extrapolating current growth rates backward: given that there are only so many people in the world and they are only at a finite multiple of subsistence income per person, it would not be possible for economic growth rates on the order of 3% per year to have lasted for more than a thousand years or so. Though it's difficult to do so, people have also come up with estimates for exactly how this growth happened in the past. One such estimate is from the HYDE dataset, also available at Our World In Data; and a whole collection of other estimates can be found here. Let's examine the HYDE dataset first. The data before 1 AD is given per millennium, and looking at the growth rates gives us the table below: Millennium Mean annual population growth rate (percent) 10000 BC - 9000 BC 0.0236% 9000 BC - 8000 BC 0.0254% 8000 BC - 7000 BC 0.0279% 7000 BC - 6000 BC 0.0320% 6000 BC - 5000 BC 0.0368% 5000 BC - 4000 BC 0.0411% 4000 BC - 3000 BC 0.0435% 3000 BC - 2000 BC 0.0489% 2000 BC - 1000 BC 0.0415% 1000 BC - 1 AD 0.0746% Aside from a slight reversal in the second millennium BC[1], the estimates suggest a gradual acceleration in the growth rate of population. This would be consistent with e.g. a hyperbolic model for population growth, but here I don't want to make any such assumption and just look at the raw data. What is surprising, then, is the next entry that should be in this table: in the first millennium, 1 AD - 1000 AD, population growth is estimated to have averaged a mere 0.033%/year. In other words, according to this dataset, even the fifth millennium BC had faster population growth than the first millennium! Something like this result turns out to be robust to changing the dataset we're using. McEvedy and Jones report a mean growth rate of 0.044%/year for the first millennium, compared to 0.137%/year from 1000 BC to 200 BC and 0.062%/year from 200 BC to 1 AD. This more granular data in the first millennium BC, not available in the HYDE dataset, suggests that the slowdown in population growth likely started before the first millennium. To find a millennium with slower population growth in this dataset, we have to go back to the fourth millennium BC (5000 BC - 4000 BC). All datasets I've looked at report substantial acceleration in population growth with the turn of the second millennium. The Mongol conquests and the Black Death appear to have weighed on population growth from 1200 to 1400, but despite that growth from 1000 to 1500 still averages 0.08%/year, which is faster than the first millennium BC. The Lost Decade was a name used in Japan to refer to the ten-year period of economic stagnation following the Japanese stock market crash of 1991. Following this convention, it might be appropriate to call the first millennium "the lost millennium". If we believe in some kind of stochastic hyperbolic growth model of economic history, a la Roodman (2020), this means that humanity got "very unlucky" in the first millennium, possibly due to persistent adverse social shocks. This story is purely quantitative, looking at population growth, but it's worth keeping in mind that under Malthusian conditions we expect population growth to track technological progress and capital formation. The more productive we are, the more children people should have until the population increases sufficiently for the marginal product of labor to fall back to subsistence levels. A millennium is more than enough time for Malthusian dynamics to pla...

Link to original articleWelcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: The lost millennium, published by Ege Erdil on August 24, 2023 on LessWrong. Note: This post is speculative, and you should take the claims in it with a grain of salt. Throughout human history, we know that economic growth, for which population growth was a good proxy under Malthusian conditions, has accelerated many times. Indeed, we can see this just by extrapolating current growth rates backward: given that there are only so many people in the world and they are only at a finite multiple of subsistence income per person, it would not be possible for economic growth rates on the order of 3% per year to have lasted for more than a thousand years or so. Though it's difficult to do so, people have also come up with estimates for exactly how this growth happened in the past. One such estimate is from the HYDE dataset, also available at Our World In Data; and a whole collection of other estimates can be found here. Let's examine the HYDE dataset first. The data before 1 AD is given per millennium, and looking at the growth rates gives us the table below: Millennium Mean annual population growth rate (percent) 10000 BC - 9000 BC 0.0236% 9000 BC - 8000 BC 0.0254% 8000 BC - 7000 BC 0.0279% 7000 BC - 6000 BC 0.0320% 6000 BC - 5000 BC 0.0368% 5000 BC - 4000 BC 0.0411% 4000 BC - 3000 BC 0.0435% 3000 BC - 2000 BC 0.0489% 2000 BC - 1000 BC 0.0415% 1000 BC - 1 AD 0.0746% Aside from a slight reversal in the second millennium BC[1], the estimates suggest a gradual acceleration in the growth rate of population. This would be consistent with e.g. a hyperbolic model for population growth, but here I don't want to make any such assumption and just look at the raw data. What is surprising, then, is the next entry that should be in this table: in the first millennium, 1 AD - 1000 AD, population growth is estimated to have averaged a mere 0.033%/year. In other words, according to this dataset, even the fifth millennium BC had faster population growth than the first millennium! Something like this result turns out to be robust to changing the dataset we're using. McEvedy and Jones report a mean growth rate of 0.044%/year for the first millennium, compared to 0.137%/year from 1000 BC to 200 BC and 0.062%/year from 200 BC to 1 AD. This more granular data in the first millennium BC, not available in the HYDE dataset, suggests that the slowdown in population growth likely started before the first millennium. To find a millennium with slower population growth in this dataset, we have to go back to the fourth millennium BC (5000 BC - 4000 BC). All datasets I've looked at report substantial acceleration in population growth with the turn of the second millennium. The Mongol conquests and the Black Death appear to have weighed on population growth from 1200 to 1400, but despite that growth from 1000 to 1500 still averages 0.08%/year, which is faster than the first millennium BC. The Lost Decade was a name used in Japan to refer to the ten-year period of economic stagnation following the Japanese stock market crash of 1991. Following this convention, it might be appropriate to call the first millennium "the lost millennium". If we believe in some kind of stochastic hyperbolic growth model of economic history, a la Roodman (2020), this means that humanity got "very unlucky" in the first millennium, possibly due to persistent adverse social shocks. This story is purely quantitative, looking at population growth, but it's worth keeping in mind that under Malthusian conditions we expect population growth to track technological progress and capital formation. The more productive we are, the more children people should have until the population increases sufficiently for the marginal product of labor to fall back to subsistence levels. A millennium is more than enough time for Malthusian dynamics to pla...

La médica infectóloga se refirió a la publicación Our World In Data en la que Argentina figura como "el país del G20 que vacunó al mayor porcentaje" de su población con al menos una dosis. “Todos vimos lo que pasó, la cantidad de fallecidos que se sucedían en el mundo entero y también nuestro país. La adquisición de vacunas y el confinamiento fueron imprescindibles para evitar la mortalidad y el colapso del sistema sanitario. El personal de salud se enfrentó a la segunda ola del COVID, vacunado con dos dosis y fue muy diferente tanto para nosotros como para la población que atendíamos”, afirmó Leda Guzzi. La publicación fue acompañada por el gráfico en el que se muestra en números que Argentina inoculó al 91,14 por ciento de su población. En este sentido, Guzzi recordó que “Argentina tiene una tradición histórica de vacunación que nos enorgullece profundamente. Desde Carrillo en adelante, pensemos que Carla Vizzotti antes de ser ministra de Salud, fue la directora del área de inmunizaciones. Ella logró el calendario de vacunación más completo de Latinoamérica, que cambió la historia de las personas”.         Pase lo que pase, lunes a viernes de 7.00 a 10.00 Con Darío Villarruel, Florencia Ibáñez, Santiago Paz, Gustavo Campana, Nidia Aguirre, Fernando Pedernera y Andrea Baldivieso.

We're joined by British ultra-trail runner and writer Damian Hall, who shares his personal journey to discovering the environmental impact of his running (including nutrition choices), the changes he's made as a result, and what he learnt along the way. We also chat about the Barkley Marathons which he ran earlier this year, and his recently published book, 'We Can't Run Away From This - Racing to improve running's footprint in our climate emergency'.    To learn more about Damian's books, blog, etc: https://www.ultradamo.com/   Our World In Data - information on food & the environment discussed in the podcast: https://ourworldindata.org/environmental-impacts-of-food#explore-data-on-the-environmental-impacts-of-food    To find out about The Green Runners: https://thegreenrunners.com/    Follow Damian: Instagram: @ultra_damo Twitter: @Ultra_Damo  

Get a 4.75% mortgage rate or 100% financing on new-build Florida income property. Start here. If I gave you $10M, learn why that probably wouldn't even help you. We revisit how “Real Estate Pays 5 Ways”, a concept that I coined right here on the show in May 2015. Some think real estate pays three, four, or six ways. I revisit why there are exactly five. Real estate has many paradoxical relationships. I explore. Americans are living in homes longer than ever, now a duration of 10 years, 8 months. The active supply of available housing dropped again. Get an update on the gambling industry. A major sports gambling platform has offered to advertise with us. Take my free real estate video course right here.  Zillow expects US home values to rise 4.8% from April 2023 to April 2024.  Months of available housing supply is currently 2.7 per Redfin. Resources mentioned: Show Notes: www.GetRichEducation.com/450 Active Supply of Available Homes: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOUUS Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Find cash-flowing Jacksonville property at: www.JWBrealestate.com/GRE Invest with Freedom Family Investments. You get paid first: Text ‘FAMILY' to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  Top Properties & Providers: GREmarketplace.com Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free—text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Keith's personal Instagram: @keithweinhold   Complete transcript:   Welcome to GRE! I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. If you were gifted $10M right now, why that very well wouldn't help you at all.   Learn a fresh take on how Real Estate Pays 5 Ways at the same time. A housing market update with perennially sagging inventory supply amounts and more outlooks for stronger home price appreciation than many expected. Today, on Get Rich Education.   Welcome to GRE!    From Montevideo, Uruguay to Montecito, CA and across 188 nations worldwide, you're listening to one of the longest-running and most listened-to shows on real estate… the voice of real estate investing since 2014. I'm your host and my name is Keith Weinhold.   How would you like it if I gave you $1M?   You know what? That's not enough to make my point. Make it $10M. I adjusted for inflation - ha! How much would you like it if I gave you $10M? How would that feel?   But what if it comes with this one condition.   What if I told you that I'll give you the $10M, but you are not waking up tomorrow?    Not waking up tomorrow? No way!   Now you know that waking up tomorrow is worth more than $10M.   This is how you know that your time and your life are worth infinitely more than any dollar amount.   Hmmm… if your time is so valuable. Then why did you check Instagram 15 times yesterday to see who viewed your Stories? Ha!   Why are you spending time with your AI girlfriend? Ha!   Get Rich Education is ultimately about living a rich LIFE - whatever that means to you.   And we do approach that from the financial perspective here. Money does matter… because leverage, cash flow, and inflation-profiting enable you to BUY time.   We're really one of the few investing platforms… this show is one of the few places with the audacity to tell you that - sure, a little delayed gratification is good… but the risk of too much delayed gratification is DENIED gratification.   Denied gratification is a terrible investing risk that most people either don't give enough weight to - or don't factor in at all.   And getting a $10M windfall is not as great as it sounds either.    History shows that the $25M Lottery winner quickly loses their money. Why does that happen?  Because it seemed like it was effortless to get the windfall, and because they don't know how to handle an amount like that.  It's really similar to a capital gains-centric investor that gets a windfall.  See, cash flow investors like you & I - we can be more measured because your income stream is metered out over time. That's why you are less likely to be irrational with your gains.     Now, I touched on some of those ways that you're paid in real estate investing.    Real Estate Pays you 5 Ways™ simultaneously. That's a concept that I coined right here on the GRE podcast. We since went on to have it trademarked.   Do you know when I first introduced that concept right here on the show - the month & year?    And I've since gone on to do a lot with “Real Estate Pays 5 Ways” to help other audiences understand real estate's five distinct profit sources.   Well, I had someone on Team GRE here do some digging into some of our legacy shows - our past episodes… because I wanted to know when I first said it… and it was apparently in May of 2015, so 8 years ago that I introduced it.   Since then, many other thought leaders have gone on to cite the phrase. Someone other than me even wrote a book on it. And that doesn't bother me at all. I'd rather that other people and readers get good ideas. That's more important than getting the credit.   Of course, c'mon, you can recite these 5 now like they're the Pledge Of Allegiance or something.    This is as automatic as the Lord's Prayer is for Christians. The five are: Appreciation Cash Flow Your return on Amortization and Tax Benefits and finally Inflation-Profiting But now, let's dissect this frog here a little. Why five ways? Why not another number, like real estate pays four ways or six ways?   It is five. There are no more or less. Each of the five are a distinct benefit.   A common flawed case that Real Estate Pays 4 Ways is that most real estate teachers omit the Inflation-Profiting benefit on the long-term fixed interest rate debt.   Any GRE devotee knows that with 5% inflation on $1M in debt, you only owe the bank $950K of inflation-adjusted debt after year one, $900K after year two, etc. (And in the meantime, the tenant pays all of your mortgage interest.)   Some that make the 4 Ways case question the Tax Benefit. Could the tax benefit really be considered a profit source, or is it just a deal sweetener?   It's a profit source.   Outside the real estate world, to obtain a tax write-off, you must have a real expense backed up with receipts, like building a new computer equipment or buying a new farm tractor.   Instead, the magic of real estate tax depreciation says that you can just write off 3.6% of the improved property value each year just for doing... nothing all year. No improvements necessary.   It's a phantom write-off, yet legitimate to the IRS.   Then the 1031 Exchange means you can endlessly defer all of your federal capital gains tax for your... entire life.   Yes, it's one of the few places in life where procrastination actually pays.   I've even heard some say that they're a fan of GRE's Real Estate Pays 5 Ways™, but they've discovered a sixth.   This often involves an event that's either unlikely or falls into one of the existing 5 Ways.   For example, "My appraisal value exceeded the contract price. I'm buying it for $320K, but the appraisal is $340K. I got $20K in instant equity. See, I was paid a 6th way."   No.   I mean, good for you, $20K of instant equity is a nice sweetener - that's a $20K credit in your net worth column that you received the moment you opened up that appraisal e-mail from your lender and saw it. Nice!   But an appraised value that exceeds the purchase price is not COMMON enough to be expected… and the 5 Ways are.   Also, you can make the case that "instant equity" is covered in the first way you're paid, Appreciation.   The reason that we invest in real estate is because there's virtually no other vehicle in the world where you can expect to be paid five ways at the same time.   That's a foundational principle - it's a core concept here at GRE.    It's why we do what we do. It answers the compelling “why” for real estate better than any answer there is…   …and that's why anything less than a 20 to 25% combined return when you add up all five ways is actually disappointing - and that's done with low risk - which is paradoxical almost anywhere else in the entire investing world.    If you haven't yet, take my free “Real Estate Pays 5 Ways” course in order to really understand each of your five distinct profit sources, where they come from, and how that all fits together.    It's at GetRichEducation.com/Course. The free “Real Estate Pays 5 Ways” short course is free at GetRichEducation.com/Course    Let's talk about real estate trends.   You know, real estate investing has a lot of relationships that you just wouldn't expect.    Part of that is because it intersects with the economy. Economies are complex and you get these relationships that are counterintuitive.    For example, in a recession, mortgage rates and all interest rates tend to fall, not rise.    Another exhibit is how debt BUILDS wealth with prudent leverage.   Another one that I've explained extensively here and the show and elsewhere is that higher mortgage rates correlate with higher home prices - not lower ones. That throws nearly everyone off.   Some physical real estate trends have been counterintuitive.   About 30 years ago in America - the 1990s - a new trend was fueled that everyone wanted to have a big kitchen.   New homes were often built with a big, fancy kitchen in the center of the home. Open floor concept - no galley kitchens anymore. That began back then.   And this was really the advent of - at the time - what we considered luxury amenities like granite and quartz kitchen countertops.    Anymore, that's become standard. Even our build-to-rent providers at GRE Marketplace often have new granite countertops in rentals.    But the paradox here is the assumption that a big emphasis on kitchens would mean that more people would start cooking at home.    Oh, no. Just the opposite, in the last 30 years, despite the big kitchens, more people eat out at restaurants and fewer people eat at home. Another real estate paradox.   Another counterintuition was the pandemic. Society locked down, people lost their jobs and you think that there are going to be mass foreclosures because with no job, no one can afford their mortgage payment.   People thought the pandemic will cripple the housing market. Oh, it was just the opposite. That created a housing boom. Everyone wanted their space. Another paradox.   Remember here on the show, shortly after Biden was elected, I told you that this administration - for better or for worse - will not let people lose their homes.    Then we had high inflation on the heels of the pandemic. That was bad for consumers and good for real estate.   But high inflation is supposed to mean that bitcoin and gold would surge. Well, another paradox, that brought crypto winter, and gold did nothing in high inflation, until more recently here.   Rather than high delinquency rates we've got low delinquency rates. In fact, the mortgage delinquency rate has been steadily falling for almost 3 years now. That's because of strong borrowers and tough lending standards.   Now, another real estate investing trend, though there's nothing paradoxical here, is mortgage rate resets.    Here in the US, on 1-4 unit rental properties, you're in great shape, whether you locked in your interest rate at 3% or 7% - the thing is that you have a steady payment… and on an inflation-adjusted basis, your same monthly payment amount goes DOWN over time - it's a tailwind to your personal finances.   Inflation cannot touch your steady, locked-in P & I payment.   But many Canadians are up for renewal with their 5-year fixed rate, 25-year amorts.    Yeah, just across the border in Canada, they don't have these 30-year fixed rate amortizing loans.    Their rate resets every five years.   One Canadian homeowner that I talked to, he doesn't live in that posh of a home in Ontario, it's just a little above the median housing price.    His family's loan terms are about to reset on the primary residence and it's expected to increase their monthly payment by $1,280 / mo.   How would you feel if that happened to you overnight? It's a nuisance at best. It might even crimp your quality of life - or worse.   That can't really happen to you in the US.    Having a 30-year FRM is like you having rent control as a tenant.    In coastal areas, some tenants that have a rent control deal - New York, California, Oregon - they want to live in their home for decades under rent control because there's a ceiling on their rent. Move out of their unit - lose the deal and they'd have to reset somewhere else.   It's the same with you as an American homeowner or REI in the 1-to-4 unit space. Your P&I price cannot rise.    And, I've talked about the interest rate lock-in effect before, constraining the housing supply.    Get this. Just last week, First American Title Company informed us that the average resident duration in a home hit a record high.    Amongst this lower intrinsic mobility rate, interest rate lock-in effect, and other societal trends, the average resident duration in a primary home in now 10 years, 8 months.    Lower mobility. Studies show that people are holding onto their cars longer than ever, and people aren't parting with their real estate either.   So, then, with fewer properties coming to market, let's update the available supply of homes.    This is pulling from the same set of stats that I've been citing for years, in order to be consistent. Check this out. This is the FRED Housing Inventory - the Active Listing Count of Available US homes.   Remember, historically, it's 1-and-a-half to 2 million units available. In 2016 it was still 1-and-a-half million.   Then in April of 2020 it dipped below 1 million and fell sharply from there - which I've famously called this era's housing crash.    It was a housing SUPPLY crash - which hedges against a price crash.   It fell to as low as 435,000 a year later in mid-2021. Gosh, under a half million.   It's rebounded as builders know that they need to build more homes. Six months ago it got up to 750,000 available homes - which is still less than half of what  America needs.   And now, today, did the supply get up toward at least 1 million yet? No.    It has dropped back the other way to just 563,000. This astounding dearth of housing supply - it's a condition that we could very well be in for over a decade.   This scarce supply is a long-term American condition. Yes, it's good for your real estate values - both present and future. But it is a problem too. It's a contributor to homelessness!   The Covid home improvement boom is officially over. So says Home Depot. They posted a revenue drop in the first quarter and warned that annual sales would decline in 2023 for the first time in 14 years.    Home Depot said that shoppers are now holding off on the big-ticket purchases they made during the pandemic and are choosing to break up larger projects—like remodeling a bathroom—into smaller, bite-sized pieces.   There's a fascinating new study from a bipartisan think tank shows that everyone wants to LIVE ALONE.   That's what Business Insider just reported on. Now, of course, the term “everyone” is an exaggeration.   But Statista and Our World In Data tells us that - get this - this is the number of SINGLE-PERSON households in the US - people living alone.   Back in 1960, that figure was just a paltry 13%.   By 1970, 17% of households were people were living alone.   Every ten years, that percent crept up to 23, 25, then 26%. By 2010 it hit 27% and by 2022 it hit 29%.   Now, you can't think that's good for society - to have all these single-person households. Almost 3 in 10 living alone. C'mon. Find a good spouse.   But in any case, that's good for you as a REI, when, say, 10 people live amongst 5 homes rather than 3 homes - absorbing all that housing supply and keeping it scarce.     Even if the US population stayed the same, there's more home demand - with that trend.   Of course, the US population is growing, though really slowly, probably just a few tenths of 1% this year.   But because of all the Millennials and the embedded “Work From Anywhere” trend, housing demand is pretty strong.   The recent rental housing demand and rent boom came almost entirely due to a surge in household formation -- young adults leaving the nest and roommates decoupling to get their own space... especially in urban areas.   People working from home want more space (without a roommate) AND are willing to pay more for it -- and able -- to pay more for it.   So if you're bullish on work-from-home remaining the norm for at least a chunk of the population (and I am), you should be bullish on the rental demand outlook.    And this has really revitalized America's SUBURBS - that's the area where you find that space.   The WFH-fueled rise of the suburbs is a wake-up call to cities, where, in the case of NYC, 26 Empire State Buildings' worth of office space now sits empty.  The typical office worker is spending $2,000–$4,600 less annually in city centers. Because even if they GO to the city to work, they might only do that 2 days a week now - not 5. I've got more for you straight ahead, including a new forecast on how much home prices are expected to rise this year.   Again, check out my free video course if you haven't “Real Estate Pays 5 Ways”. Get it at GetRichEducation.com/Course   I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to Get Rich Education.   Yeah, big thanks to this week's show sponsors. I'm only bringing you those places that will bring real value to your life.   Now, here at GRE, I recently read an offer that one of these major sports gambling platforms sent us. They want to advertise on the show here.    Do you want to hear sports gambling ads on GRE? I've got an opinion about that, that I'll share with you shortly. Gambling is not the same as investing.    If you're wondering why you're hearing more about gambling, especially sports gambling than you had just a few years ago, well…   Now, just last week, it was FIVE years ago that the Supreme Court lifted a federal ban on sports gambling in the US.    That spawned a multibillion-dollar industry that's transformed how Americans watch, talk about, and experience sports.   Americans bet $95B on sports in legal jurisdictions with consumer protections last year. That's more money than the amount spent on ride sharing, coffee, or streaming… and you can bet that the off-the-books gambling number, if added in, would make that WAY higher. Two sports betting companies, DraftKings and FanDuel, control 71% of the US market, per gambling analytics firm Eilers & Krejcik. Gosh, that's almost a duopoly right there. But despite that, these companies have struggled to turn a profit. FanDuel recorded its first quarterly profit just last year, and DraftKings has YET to report a profitable quarter. Well, I'll just tell ya, it's one of those two big companies that inquired about advertising on GRE. Of the 50 states, the number is 33 that allow it. That's 2/3rd of the nation that has legal sports betting (Washington, DC, has it too). Another four states have legalized sports wagering, but don't have any sportsbooks operating yet. Interestingly, the three most-populous US states—California, Texas, and Florida—have not legalized sports gambling. And they account for 26% of all teams in the major North American pro leagues. The number of women joining sportsbook apps jumped 45% last year, marking the third straight year that new women users exceeded men. Hmmm. I guess that's the growth market there. My inclination to have gambling advertising and associating with these companies is NOT to do it… not to accept that advertising income. I don't see how that's serving you. This feels like a conflict in my gut and in my heart. Gambling is sort of the opposite of investing for a stable rental income stream.  I mean, either way, I guess you're putting your money at stake. But that's about the closest common ground I can find.  At least at this time… and probably all-time, it's a “no” for gambling content here. That's not any sort of moral judgment on the activity at all. I mean, gosh, as a teenager, I was really into sports gambling, but it was the informal kind. My friend & I each lay a $10 bill next to the TV - Phillies vs. Mets. Winner gets the $20 bucks. So, my inclination is a pretty easy “no”. Hook up with our sponsors - they support GRE. That's Ridge Lending Group, offering income property loans nationwide. JWB Real Estate Capital - if you want performing income property, JWB really has Jacksonville, FL sewn up & locked down. They do one thing and do it well. Then, Freedom Family Investments. Get started with them for real estate funds that are ultra-low hassle. Text “FAMILY” to 66866.  Where will the next ten years take you & I on the show here? I would love to be along for the ride with you. I hope that you'll be here with me.   Let me just take a moment to remind you that I'm grateful to have such a large, loyal audience to… well, listen to the words that I say every week. Thank you for your support.   This show has almost reached the 5 million download mark. I've been shown that it's between 4.8 and 4.9 million downloads now. I'm genuinely honored and a little humbled about that even.    Let's listen in to this 3+ minute CNBC clip. This is Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the NAR - the National Association of Realtors talking about the housing market just last week.    Now, a little context here - historically, the NAR has tended to give these dominantly sunny side-up, glowing, everything is always good & getting better kind of remarks on the housing market.   But I've been listening to the NAR's Lawrence Yun for quite a while and think he's been rather balanced.    Here, he discusses how real estate sales volume is down - which has a lot to do with low supply, that mortgage rates are steady, and that prices are slowly rising in most parts of the nation.   [OK, Vedran. Here's where we play the insert.]   0:09-3:42 First words to keep are: “Lawrence Yun…” Last words to keep are: “... half of the country.”   https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/05/17/home-prices-still-rising-despite-sales-dropping-says-national-association-of-realtors-yun.html   Now, Lawrence Yun did go on to say that he thinks that the Fed should lower interest rates by a half point, and more.    Let us know if you'd like us to invite Lawrence Yun onto the show. As always, you can leave your suggestions, questions, or any comments about the Get Rich Education podcast or any of our other platforms at our Contact center at: GetRichEducation.com/Contact   When it comes to national HPA, just last week, we learned that Zillow revised its home price outlook upward.   Between April 2023 and April 2024, Zillow expects home US home values to rise 4.8%.   You've got more signs that more & more American markets are being considered a seller's market rather than a buyer's market, which tilts toward price appreciation, though I still think pretty moderate price appreciation this year.    CNN recently published an article where they even posited the question: “Are Bidding Wars Back?” Yes, they are in a few markets.     Another measure of housing supply is the MONTHS of available supply. I think you know that 6 to 7 months of inventory is considered a balanced supply & demand market.   If it gets up to 10 months of supply, you tend to see little or no HPA.    Well, indicative of the low housing supply, we hit a winter high of 4-and-a-half months of supply.    And today, it's down to just 2.7 months per Redfin. 2.7 months. That's just another sign that demand is outpacing supply.   Then, among those entry-level homes, like the NAR's Lawrence Yun eluded to, they're even harder to find… and they're the ones that make the best rentals.    How hard are these to find? I mean, in some markets this can be even more rare than finding a true friend? Ha!   Is it as rare as the Hope Diamond? Or perhaps a Honus Wagner baseball card? Ha!   Well, the good news is that we actually have the inventory that you want at GRE Marketplace.   Besides that, we actually have something that you really like and that is - mortgage rate relief to help you with your cash flow.    Purchase rates have been hovering around 6 1/2% lately. That's the OO rate, so for rentals, it could be 7%+.   Well, how about rolling back the hands of time? Through our great relationships here and our free investment coaching, you have access to 4.75% interest rates on investment property - and many of these are new-builds in path-of-progress Florida.   Yes, our free coaching will get you the 4.75% mortgage interest rate, they'll even help write the sales contract for you if you're new to this, walk you through the property inspection, the property condition, the appraisal.    Yes, a 4.75% interest rate… today, from these homebuilder buydowns. I don't know how much longer that can last.    To be clear, you're not buying an income property FROM us. You're buying it with our help and our connections. It is all free to you. This is educational support for you.   In fact, our coaching support like this through our sole investment coach, Naresh is becoming so popular, that I can announce that we soon plan to add a second investment coach. Yes! A new one.   And interestingly, you have heard of this soon-to-be second investment coach because they've been a guest on the show here a number of times. Yeah, we'll make that introduction on a future show. You'll find THAT interesting.   But, our Investment Coach, Naresh, does have some slots open to talk with you and help you out. A lot of the best deals currently with these 4.75% rates are with new-build Florida duplexes and fourplexes.    You can use them for rental SFHs too. Last I checked, the deals were a little better on the duplexes and fourplexes.   You probably thought that Sub-6 and sub-5 mortgage rates are about as unlikely to make a sudden comeback as AOL or Myspace, but we've got them here now.    Now, that 4.75% is just one of two options that we have with some Build-To-Rent builders that are fairly motivated. So to review the first one fully… you can get a   4.75% interest rate with a 25% down payment 1 year of free property management and $1,000 off closing costs per deal That's one. Or, option 2 is: Zero down payment - yes, 100% financing 2 years free property management $1,000 off closing costs per deal Negotiable price, open to offers They are the two options.  It's rarely more attractive than this. If you hear this in a few weeks, or perhaps months, I doubt that these options will be there any longer.   So I'll close with something actionable that can really help you now.    If you want to do it yourself, that's fine, like thousands of others have, get a selection of income property - despite this national dearth of supply at GREmarketplace.com   Or, like I said, right now, it's really helpful to connect with an experienced GRE Investment Coach - it's free - our coach's name is Naresh - for those 4.75% interest rates or zero down program - whatever's best for you… you can do all that at once at GREmarketplace.com/Coach   Until next week, I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. DQYD!  

Raffi Krikorian (CTO, Emerson Collective) talks with Max Roser (Researcher at University of Oxford / Founder & Director of Our World In Data) about what it looks like to be mission driven in his work.

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: What happens on the average day?, published by rosehadshar on August 17, 2022 on The Effective Altruism Forum. “No man is an island, entire of itself”. John Donne, Meditation XVII I want to know what's going on in the world. I'm a human; I'm interested in what other humans are up to; I value them, care about their triumphs and mourn their deaths. But: There's far too much going on for me to keep track of all of it I think that some parts of what's going are likely far more important than others I don't think that regular news providers are picking the important bits to report on I would really like there to be a scope sensitive news provider which was making a good faith attempt to report on the things which most matter in the world (see digression one for more thoughts on this). But as far as I know, this doesn't exist (see digression two for some cool things which do exist). In the absence of such a provider, I've spent a small amount of time trying to find out some basic context on what happens in the world on the average day. I think of this as a bit like a cheat sheet: some information to have in the back of my mind when reading whatever regular news stories are coming at me, to ground me in something that feels a bit closer to what's actually going on. Methodological notes I picked the scale of a day because it felt easiest to imagine. I think that weeks, months and years would all be interesting scales to have something like this for. (For decades and centuries, I mostly think you should just read most important century, and I strongly recommend doing so.) The numbers I've used are rough, but I think they are ballpark right, and a big improvement on no numbers. Please read all of the numbers as having a ‘~' in front of them. I used the most recent years I could find, but this varied (2014-2022). I mostly pulled numbers from Our World In Data, and sometimes other places. I've only put links into the text directly where the number in the text is an annual figure that you can find directly in the original source. For everything else, I think looking at the spreadsheet of my workings makes more sense than going straight to the original source. I've included a bunch of charts to give a sense of trends over time. The charts are all in years, so the numbers they are tracking on the y axis are different to the daily numbers I give in the text. I picked some things that happen on an average day that I care about and think are important. I expect there are big gaps here, particularly where it comes to technology. I'd love for people to suggest things which should be added to this post. Headline version Things that happen on an average day: Almost 170,000 people die. 380,000 babies are born. Humans kill 800,000 cows, 1.6 million sheep, 4 million pigs, 200 million chickens, and 300 million fish. $263 billion is spent. 95.4 million tonnes of CO2 are emitted. Humans launch 5 objects into space. Warning: these numbers are ~nonsense 898,271 people fall in love. 628,350,575 people cry. Things which remain the case on an average day: 8 billion humans are alive. A quadrillion fish are alive (a thousand trillions), 550 billion wild mammals, and 100 billion wild birds. There are over 9,000 stockpiled nuclear weapons. There are around 56 active state-based conflicts. Spreadsheet version here. Things that happen on an average day Almost 170,000 people die. Since 1950, this number has been up and down, at around 140,000 deaths per day. Tomorrow, the number of deaths will be more than today, by around 6 deaths - and this number will keep growing every day for the next 80 years or so (nearly 30,000 days). On the average day in 2100, around twice as many people will die as did today. 15,000 of these people are under 5 years old. 5,000 of them die from diseases which are preventable by v...

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: What We Owe The Future: A review and summary of what I learned, published by Michael Townsend on August 16, 2022 on The Effective Altruism Forum. Will MacAskill's new book, What We Owe The Future has just been released in the US and will be available in the UK from September 1. You might already be turning to book reviews or podcasts to inform whether you should buy a copy. To help, I'm writing a quick summary of the book, sharing three new insights I gained, and three questions it left me asking. But it's worth being upfront to the reader about where I sit. MacAskill entwines rigorous arguments with compelling metaphors to promote a profoundly important idea: we can make the future go better, and we should. It's filled with rich, relevant and persuasive historical examples, grounding his philosophical arguments in the real world. It's a book for people who are curious to learn, but also motivated to act — I strongly recommend it. Summary of What We Owe The Future Main argument The book makes a case for longtermism, the view that positively influencing the long-term future is a key moral priority of our time. The overarching argument is simple: Future people matter. The future could be enormously valuable (or terrible). We can positively influence the long-term future. 1. Future people matter The book argues for the first claim at the outset in straightforward and intuitive terms, but MacAskill also takes the reader through rigorous arguments grappling with population ethics, the area of philosophy that focuses on these sorts of questions. 2. The future could be enormously valuable (or terrible) MacAskill's argument for the second claim is that there are far more people who could potentially live in the future than have ever lived in the past. On certain assumptions about the average future population and expected lifespan of the human species, the number of people who could live in the future dramatically outweighs the number of people who have ever lived. This kind of analysis may have inspired Our World In Data's visualisation of how vast the long-term future could be. I recommend Kurzgesagt's “The Last Human — A Glimpse Into The Far Future” which evocatively draws out the potential magnitude of our long-term future. A substantial amount is at stake: if the future goes well, it could be enormously valuable, but if it doesn't, it could be terrible. 3. We can positively influence the long-term future The third claim is the central focus of the book. MacAskill aims not just to argue that we can in principle influence the long-term future (which is the standard of most philosophical arguments) but that we can and here's how (the standard for those who want to take action). MacAskill argues that one of the best ways to focus on the long-term future is to reduce our risk of extinction. Though he also argues that it's not just about whether we survive; it's also about how we survive. The case for focusing on the ways we can improve the quality of the long-term future is one of the key lessons I took from the book. Things I learned from reading What We Owe The Future Much of what I read was new to me, even as someone who's been highly engaged with these ideas. If I were to list all the historical examples that were new to me, I'd essentially be rewriting the book. Instead, here are the top three lessons I learned. Lesson one: Today's values could have easily been different. One of the book's key ideas is that if we could re-run history again, it's unlikely we'd end up with the same values — instead, they're contingent. This is not something I believed before reading the book. If I can make a personal confession: I'm a (perhaps naive) supporter of a philosophical view called hedonistic-utilitarianism, which claims the best actions are those that increase the total amount o...

Dr Hannah Ritchie is a Senior Researcher at the Oxford Martin Programme in Global Development and the Head of Research at Our World in Data. In this episode, we spoke with Hannah about her work at Our World in Data and her article, "Stop Telling Kids They'll Die From Climate Change". We discuss her thoughts on what some of the world's most pressing problems are, touching on topics such as agriculture, the link between meat consumption and poverty, education and more.Links:Hannah Ritchie's profileHannah's article, "Stop Telling Kids They'll Die From Climate Change"The world's biggest problem: Agriculture (check out the data here)Here's an article on meat consumption and climate change by Hannah And another one Dollar Street GapminderDefinitely check out these Our World In Data articles as well:  Decoupling of GDP and carbon emissionsCarbon dioxide Data ExplorerEconomic growth in low- and middle-income countries Global improvements in quality of educationSupport the show

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/slightly-against-underpopulation So I hear there's an underpopulation crisis now. I think the strong version of this claim - that underpopulation could cause human extinction - is 100% false. The weaker version - that it could make life unpleasant in some countries - is true. But I don't think it's at the top of any list of things to worry about. 1: Declining Birth Rates Won't Drive Humans Extinct, Come On Not only are we not going to go extinct because of underpopulation, population is going to continue to rise for the next 80 years. Although growth rate may hit zero a little after 2100, it will be centuries before the human population gets any lower than it is today - if it ever does. This is mostly because of sub-Saharan Africa (especially Nigeria) where birth rates remain very high. Although these are going down, in some cases faster than expected, current best projections say they will stay high enough to keep population growing for the rest of the century. 2: Immigrant-Friendly Countries Will Keep Growing Here are Our World In Data's projections for US and UK populations:

Texas Lindsay is an advocate for truth, human rights, and informed consent who dedicates her time to  non-profit efforts—working with whistleblowers, doctors and scientists from around the world and helps navigate how to simplify complex issues and strategize how to communicate them to broader audiences. On the podcast we discuss working with EcoHealth Alliance Whistleblower,  Dr. Andrew Huff, videos she made that went viral around the world using charts from Our World In Data of countries, Alex Stein, getting the truth out and much more.  PLEASE SUBSCRIBE LIKE AND SHARE THIS PODCAST!!!   Social media Twitter- https://twitter.com/TexasLindsay Substack - https://texaslindsay.substack.com/p/walgreens-the-data-screams-for-itself?utm_medium=email

There's an idea in machine learning that most of the progress we see in AI doesn't come from new algorithms of model architectures. instead, some argue, progress almost entirely comes from scaling up compute power, datasets and model sizes — and besides those three ingredients, nothing else really matters. Through that lens the history of AI becomes the history f processing power and compute budgets. And if that turns out to be true, then we might be able to do a decent job of predicting AI progress by studying trends in compute power and their impact on AI development. And that's why I wanted to talk to Jaime Sevilla, an independent researcher and AI forecaster, and affiliate researcher at Cambridge University's Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, where he works on technological forecasting and understanding trends in AI in particular. His work's been cited in a lot of cool places, including Our World In Data, who used his team's data to put together an exposé on trends in compute. Jaime joined me to talk about compute trends and AI forecasting on this episode of the TDS podcast. *** Intro music: - Artist: Ron Gelinas - Track Title: Daybreak Chill Blend (original mix) - Link to Track: https://youtu.be/d8Y2sKIgFWc *** Chapters: 2:00 Trends in compute 4:30 Transformative AI 13:00 Industrial applications 19:00 GPT-3 and scaling 25:00 The two papers 33:00 Biological anchors 39:00 Timing of projects 43:00 The trade-off 47:45 Wrap-up

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: EA Projects I'd Like to See, published by finm on March 13, 2022 on The Effective Altruism Forum. Below is a list of EA project ideas which I've been thinking a bit about over the last few months. I'd be interested if people think I should take turn any of these ideas into top-level posts or shortform posts (and in future whether posts for individual ideas are better than a long list like this). Thanks! I expect this will end up being part 1 of N, where E(N)≈3 this year. Note that the order is mostly arbitrary. If you could see yourself actually working on one of these, please do let me know. I might be able to connect you to other people who could work with, elaborate on details, or help you find funding. Longtermist visualisations Imagine a ‘timeline of everything', showing major events (astronomical, geological, historical) from the Big Bang to the end of time. Users can zoom in and out, much like existing apps that show the scale of the universe. Appreciating the vast amount of time ahead of us, and the relatively brief period of time that all of recorded human history makes up, is a key underlying intuition for longtermist arguments. The website could explain longtermist ideas as link to relevant reading, like The Precipice. Various timelines of the universe have been made in video or graphic form, such as here. But I suspect being able to navigate through different scales of time yourself might be a very different experience. Ultimately, you could imagine a website hosting a series of visualizations illustrating various longtermist ideas. These visualisations and graphics, some interactive, some updated with live data, could be tied together with essays about key longtermist topics, amounting to a kind of undirected, highly visual introduction to ideas from effective altruism and longtermism. You could imagine a handful of ‘tracks' (e.g. big history, existential risks, technological progress, human progress) which tie together these graphics, once enough are made. I am excited by the prospect of Our World In Data adding new charts which could be of special interest from a longtermist perspective. But I do think this project could be different enough to warrant being separate, because the visualisations could be more creative, various in form, and perhaps less squarely data-driven. I made a small start on this idea last year, and made plans to hire for it, but left it by the wayside because I got distracted. Meta book ideas Book grantmaking As I understand it, a lot of involved work is required to secure a book deal, and ∴ to start on the process of writing the book. Before you can get an advance from one of them, you need to shop an idea around publishers, or find an outside agent you can trust to do so. The author typically needs to put a lot of their own time into this process, and in any case will need to wait before a deal goes through to begin writing with the confidence that their time is being put to good use. First-time or more obscure authors have it especially bad, since they have little to show to prospective publishers. This is presumably bad, at best because it uses up the time of people who's time is valuable and could be used just writing the book; and at worst because it makes potentially impactful books less likely to happen in the first place, for this reason. In this new context for EA where money appears to be much less of a constraining factor, I wonder if this problem can be fixed. Imagine a group of evaluators with (i) a good amount of context on EA ideas, and (ii) a decent understanding of the world of publishing. As a prospective EA author, you apply with your book idea to this team, and if the pitch meets a basic threshold, then you quickly receive an advance. After that, the work of finding a publisher falls to this team of specialist...

Se o estado de São Paulo fosse um país, estaria em terceiro lugar entre as nações que mais vacinam contra a covid-19, com 84% da população geral com esquema vacinal completo. Os dados são do portal Our World In Data, da Universidade de Oxford, do Reino Unido. São Paulo estaria atrás apenas da Coreia do Sul e da China. A comparação é feita com países cujas populações são iguais ou superiores a 40 milhões de pessoas. São Paulo é o estado que mais vacina no Brasil e tem um percentual de imunização contra a covid-19 superior ao de países como Espanha, Japão, Itália, Alemanha e Estados Unidos. O percentual paulista supera inclusive o do Brasil, que tem 73,5 % da população vacinada. Se for analisado apenas o percentual relativo aos que receberam somente a primeira dose entre a população geral, a taxa é de 92,5 %. A elevada imunização permitiu que o governo paulista autorizasse na última quarta-feira que a população deixe de usar máscara em ambientes abertos, como ruas, parques e estádios de futebol. Se as taxas continuarem em melhoria, o uso da proteção poderá deixar de ser obrigatório em qualquer ambiente ainda no mês de março.

Se o estado de São Paulo fosse um país, estaria em terceiro lugar entre as nações que mais vacinam contra a covid-19, com 84% da população geral com esquema vacinal completo. Os dados são do portal Our World In Data, da Universidade de Oxford, do Reino Unido. São Paulo estaria atrás apenas da Coreia do Sul e da China. A comparação é feita com países cujas populações são iguais ou superiores a 40 milhões de pessoas. São Paulo é o estado que mais vacina no Brasil e tem um percentual de imunização contra a covid-19 superior ao de países como Espanha, Japão, Itália, Alemanha e Estados Unidos. O percentual paulista supera inclusive o do Brasil, que tem 73,5 % da população vacinada. Se for analisado apenas o percentual relativo aos que receberam somente a primeira dose entre a população geral, a taxa é de 92,5 %. A elevada imunização permitiu que o governo paulista autorizasse na última quarta-feira que a população deixe de usar máscara em ambientes abertos, como ruas, parques e estádios de futebol. Se as taxas continuarem em melhoria, o uso da proteção poderá deixar de ser obrigatório em qualquer ambiente ainda no mês de março.

En las últimas décadas, China ha tenido un crecimiento económico exponencial como nunca antes visto. Muchos expertos hablan sobre su inminente conversión en el país más poderoso del mundo, superando así a EE.UU. en los próximos años.Aunque este crecimiento ha significado mucha abundancia económica y un nivel de vida notablemente mejorado para los habitantes de la superpotencia asiática, esto también ha traído mucha explotación humana, animal y ambiental dentro y fuera de China.Gracias a este continuo crecimiento que pareciera imparable, aún siendo la segunda potencia con el mayor PIB del mundo, China se sigue considerando como un país en vías de desarrollo. Esto no solo significa más explotación ambiental dentro de los próximos años, sino también que no dejarán de emitir carbono a la atmósfera. Pues, aunque existen ya muchas alternativas limpias para los combustibles fósiles, estos siguen siendo los más baratos, viables y eficientes. Por esto, el presidente de la República Popular de China, Xi Jinping, en una asamblea de la ONU llevada a cabo el año pasado, mencionó que el plan de su país es alcanzar su pico de emisiones de carbono antes de 2030 y continuar emitiendo hasta 2060, en donde alcanzarán la neutralidad de carbono. Esto es sumamente preocupante, pues China es, por mucho, actualmente el país más contaminante del mundo, Los expertos del cambio climático mencionaron en el último informe del Panel Intergubernamental del Cambio Climático que, para mantener la temperatura por debajo de los 2 grados centígrados, las emisiones de carbono deberían de bajar en un 40% para finales de esta década.Tomando todo esto en cuenta pareciera muy difícil seguir apegados a los lineamientos del Acuerdo de París, pues, ¿cómo podría ser posible lograrlo si tan solo las promesas del país más contaminante del mundo están tan lejos de los objetivos?Si tienes una empresa u organización ecológica y quieres anunciarte con nosotros, envíanos un correo electrónico a promociones@villam.mx. Si tienes una empresa u organización y quieres hacerla más sustentable, comunícate con nosotros a consultorias@villam.mx.Síguenos en redes sociales. Puede encontrarnos como @villam.mx. Y suscríbete a nuestra newsletter para recibir la mejor información medioambiental en tu bandeja de entrada. También puedes encontrarnos en nuestro canal de YouTube.Villam es una organización sin fines de lucro creada por y para  personas preocupadas por el medio ambiente. Ayúdanos a llegar a más personas. Suscríbete a nuestro podcast, a nuestro canal de YouTube y síguenos en redes sociales. Pasa la voz. Ayudemos al planeta.Este episodio fue preproducido y producido por Julieta Escobar, Sebastián Arce y Juan Pablo Gutiérrez. Con la locución de Sebastián Arce y Juan Pablo Gutiérrez. La edición y la música fue creada por Juan Pablo Gutiérrez.Fuentes: Center for strategic and international studies; EV Volumes; Reuters; CNBC; The New York Times; Techcrunch; Technode; Bloomberg; The Wall Street Journal; Yahoo finance; The Wall Street Journal; CNN; The Drive; Forbes; Our World In Data

En las últimas décadas, China ha tenido un crecimiento económico exponencial como nunca antes visto. Muchos expertos hablan sobre su inminente conversión en el país más poderoso del mundo, superando así a EE.UU. en los próximos años.Aunque este crecimiento ha significado mucha abundancia económica y un nivel de vida notablemente mejorado para los habitantes de la superpotencia asiática, esto también ha traído mucha explotación humana, animal y ambiental dentro y fuera de China.Gracias a este continuo crecimiento que pareciera imparable, aún siendo la segunda potencia con el mayor PIB del mundo, China se sigue considerando como un país en vías de desarrollo. Esto no solo significa más explotación ambiental dentro de los próximos años, sino también que no dejarán de emitir carbono a la atmósfera. Pues, aunque existen ya muchas alternativas limpias para los combustibles fósiles, estos siguen siendo los más baratos, viables y eficientes. Por esto, el presidente de la República Popular de China, Xi Jinping, en una asamblea de la ONU llevada a cabo el año pasado, mencionó que el plan de su país es alcanzar su pico de emisiones de carbono antes de 2030 y continuar emitiendo hasta 2060, en donde alcanzarán la neutralidad de carbono. Esto es sumamente preocupante, pues China es, por mucho, actualmente el país más contaminante del mundo, Los expertos del cambio climático mencionaron en el último informe del Panel Intergubernamental del Cambio Climático que, para mantener la temperatura por debajo de los 2 grados centígrados, las emisiones de carbono deberían de bajar en un 40% para finales de esta década.Tomando todo esto en cuenta pareciera muy difícil seguir apegados a los lineamientos del Acuerdo de París, pues, ¿cómo podría ser posible lograrlo si tan solo las promesas del país más contaminante del mundo están tan lejos de los objetivos?Si tienes una empresa u organización ecológica y quieres anunciarte con nosotros, envíanos un correo electrónico a promociones@villam.mx. Si tienes una empresa u organización y quieres hacerla más sustentable, comunícate con nosotros a consultorias@villam.mx.Síguenos en redes sociales. Puede encontrarnos como @villam.mx. Y suscríbete a nuestra newsletter para recibir la mejor información medioambiental en tu bandeja de entrada. También puedes encontrarnos en nuestro canal de YouTube.Villam es una organización sin fines de lucro creada por y para  personas preocupadas por el medio ambiente. Ayúdanos a llegar a más personas. Suscríbete a nuestro podcast, a nuestro canal de YouTube y síguenos en redes sociales. Pasa la voz. Ayudemos al planeta.Este episodio fue preproducido y producido por Julieta Escobar, Sebastián Arce y Juan Pablo Gutiérrez. Con la locución de Sebastián Arce y Julieta Escobar. La edición y la música fue creada por Juan Pablo Gutiérrez.Fuentes: Center for strategic and international studies; EV Volumes; Reuters; CNBC; The New York Times; Techcrunch; Technode; Bloomberg; The Wall Street Journal; Yahoo finance; The Wall Street Journal; CNN; The Drive; Forbes; Our World In Data

No podcast ‘Notícia No Seu Tempo', confira em áudio as principais notícias da edição impressa do jornal ‘O Estado de S. Paulo' desta quarta-feira (29/12/21): Há mais gente trabalhando no Brasil, mas os salários estão cada vez mais baixos. A taxa de desemprego caiu de 13,7% para 12,1% no trimestre encerrado em outubro – entre empregos formais e informais, o mercado de trabalho absorveu mais de 3 milhões de pessoas e a população ocupada (94 milhões) já chega perto de números pré-pandemia. Por outro lado, a renda média do trabalhador é a menor desde 2012, quando o IBGE iniciou a série histórica. E mais: Política: Maioria dos presidenciáveis diz que é contra a reeleição Metrópole: Mais 3 parques de SP serão concedidos à iniciativa privada Internacional: Com Ômicron, mundo passa de 1 milhão de casos diários Caderno 2: Milton celebra ‘Clube da Esquina' com Orquestra Ouro Preto See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/links-for-october [Remember, I haven't independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links post are wrong or misleading. I correct these as I see them, and will highlight important corrections later, but I can't guarantee I will have caught them all by the time you read this.] 1: Our World In Data - we are winning the war on oil spills: 2: @incunabula: “Cheese is one of the 5 things the Western book as we know it depends on. The other four are snails, Jesus, underwear and spectacles. If even one of these things was absent, the book you hold in your hand today would look completely different. I'll explain why…” 3: Mansana de la Discordia (“the block of discord”) is a city block in Barcelona where four of the city's most famous architects built houses next to each other in clashing styles: It's also a pun on manzana de la Discordia, “Apple of Discord” 4: As late as the 1930s, most upper-middle-class American families had servants. By the end of World War II, almost nobody did. The transition was first felt as a supply-side issue - well-off people wanted servants as much as ever, but fewer and fewer people were willing to serve. Here's an article on the government commission set up to deal with the problem. I first saw this linked by somebody trying to tie it in to the current labor shortage. 5: Harvard Gazette reviews Stephen Pinker's new book on rationality. Someone sent this to me for the contrast with Secret Of Our Success - Pinker argues that hunter-gatherer tribes use critical thinking all the time, are skeptical of arguments from authority, and “owe their survival to a scientific mindset”. I'd love to see a debate between Pinker and Henrich (or an explanation of why they feel like they're really on the same side and don't need to iron anything out). 6: It's hard to talk about IQ research without getting accused of something something Nazis. But here's a claim that actually, Nazis hated IQ research, worrying that it would “be an instrument of Jewry to fortify its hegemony” and outshine more properly Aryan values like “practical intelligence” and “character”. Whenever someone tells you that they don't believe in IQ, consider calling them out on perpetuating discredited Nazi ideology.

Here's today's Big Hard Fact: According to Our World In Data, 1.92million people in Nigeria have received at least 1 dose of the COVID-19 Vaccine, and of those, 1.54million have received a second dose. Does Nigeria Need COVID-19 Vaccine Mandates?

To mark 50 episodes on the podcast, I share my own evolving thoughts on food. I reflect on the state of agriculture and on what sustainability might mean in the food movement today. My experience over the last half decade engaging with the food movement has been that debates are all too often reduced to soundbites on social media. Complex arguments are reduced to 280 characters on Twitter, angry posts on Facebook, and rants on YouTube. We're talking past each other. That's unhelpful.  By sharing my thoughts, I hope to encourage more honest, open and nuanced discussions with whoever is listening.  In this episode, I briefly discuss: The failed promises of industrial agriculture The winners and losers of our food system Food sustainability through different lenses Agriculture and humanity's relationship to nature The future of farming through Charles C. Mann's Prophets and Wizards The land sharing land sparing debate Funding: where does all the money flow? Agroecology and its critics The dilemmas of cell-based and plant-based meat   References (in chronological order): World Health Organisation (WHO) - Obesity and Overweight Fact Sheet Lappé, Francis M., Fowler, Carey and Collins, Joseph (1977) Food First: Beyond the Myth of Scarcity White, Allen (2016) - 'Solving the 10,000-Year-Old Problem of Agriculture: An Interview with Wes Jackson' In These Times Online  Jackson, Wes & Berry, Wendell (2011) Nature as Measure: The Selected Essays of Wes Jackson Ritchie, Hannah (2021) 'Cutting down forests: what are the drivers of deforestation?' Our World In Data  United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) (2021) 'Our global food system is the primary driver of biodiversity loss' Mann, Charles C. (2018) The Wizard and the Prophet: Two Remarkable Scientists and Their Dueling Visions to Shape Tomorrow's World. Knopf publishing. Barretto, Alberto & Berndes, Göran & Sparovek, Gerd & Wirsenius, Stefan. (2013). Agricultural intensification in Brazil and its effects on land-use patterns: An analysis of the 1975–2006 period. Global change biology. 19(6). 10.1111/gcb.12174.  Holt-Giménez, Eric & Shattuck, Annie & Altieri, Miguel & Herren, Hans & Gliessman, Steve. (2012) We Already Grow Enough Food for 10 Billion People … and Still Can't End Hunger. Journal of Sustainable Agriculture 36. 595-598. Biovision Foundation for Ecological Development & IPES-Food (2020) Money Flows: What is holding back investment in agroecological research for Africa? Biovision Foundation for Ecological Development & International Panel of Experts on Sustainable Food Systems De Schutter, Olivier & Vermeylen, Margot (2020) The share of agroecology in Belgian official development assistance: an opportunity missed  Meier, M. S. et al. (2015) Environmental impacts of organic and conventional agricultural products – are differences captured by life cycle assessment?  Journal of Environmental Management 149, 193–207  Van der Werf, H.M.G., Knudsen, M.T. & Cederberg, C. (2020) Towards better representation of organic agriculture in life cycle assessment. Nature Sustainability 3, 419–425  Declaration of the International Forum for Agroecology (2015) Nyéléni, Mali. Via Campesina website IPES-Food (2016) From uniformity to diversity: a paradigm shift from industrial agriculture to diversifed agroecological systems. International Panel of Experts on Sustainable Food systems.  Levidow, Les (2016) Agroecological Innovation. International Federation of Organic Agriculture Movements (IFOAM).  Cook, C.D., Hamerschlag, K., and Klein, K. (2016) Farming for the Future: Organic and Agroecological Solutions to Feed the World. Friends of the Earth. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. (2009) 1.02 billion hungry. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. (2009) The state of food insecurity in the world. Rome, Italy: Economic and Social DevelopmentDepartment Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Reganold, J., Wachter, J. (2016) Organic agriculture in the twenty-first century. Nature Plants 2, 15221  Rodale Institute (2020) The Truth about Organic. Kutztown, PA.  Galloway McLean, Kirsty & Castillo, Ameyali & Rubis, Jennifer. (2011). Indigenous Peoples, Marginalized Populations and Climate Change: Vulnerability, Adaptation and Traditional Knowledge Debal Deb (2009) “Valuing folk crop varieties for agroecology and food security”, Independent Science News (26 October 2009).  United Nations (2015) United Nations General Assembly, Right to Food, UN Doc. A/70/287 Philpott, Stacy & Lin, Brenda & Jha, Shalene & Brines, Shannon. (2008). A multi-scale assessment of hurricane impacts based on land-use and topographic features. Agric Ecosyst Environ. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment. 128. 12-20.  Rosset, Peter & Sosa, Braulio & Jaime, Adilén & Avila, Rocio. (2011). The Campesino-to-Campesino Agroecology Movement of ANAP in Cuba: Social Process Methodology in the Construction of Sustainable Peasant Agriculture and Food Sovereignty. The Journal of peasant studies. 38. 161-91. Poux, X., Aubert, P.-M. (2018). An agroecological Europe in 2050: multifunctional agriculture for healthy eating. Findings from the Ten Years For Agroecology (TYFA) modelling exercise, Iddri-AScA, Study N°09/18, Paris, France  Fairlie, Simon (2010) Meat: A Benign Extravagance. Permanent Publications, Hampshire, UK.  Carrington, Damian (2019) '$1m a minute: the farming subsidies destroying the world - report' The Guardian.  The Food and Land Use Coalition (2019) Growing Better: Ten Critical Transitions to Transform Food and Land Use. The Global Consultation Report of the Food and Land Use Coalition. You might also like: FFS 000 - Why A Food Podcast? FFS 041 - On the Frontlines of Food FFS 033 - A Case for Eating Meat

The list of things that enable life on earth is a pretty short one: a dollop of sunshine, drizzle of water, and a soupçon of air. But for anything fun to happen on land, you're going to need a liberal smattering of soil, too. In fact that 30cm of topsoil is so fundamentally important that it gets a bit scary to think what would happen if it wasn't there. Unfortunately that's less of a thought experiment than it might sound - it's widely quoted that humanity has got only 60 years of decent harvests left before the soil is either so degraded or so not there that we won't be able to feed ourselves. Eek. So, we DIG into the issue, dish the DIRT on some dodgy statmongering, and wonder what on EARTH it all means. Aaaaaand talking of Earth, we also give short shrift to gazillionaire bell-end Bezos and his willy wanging wocket whooshing. * As mentioned in the pod, Our World In Data's in-depth piece re the '60 harvests left' stat is here https://ourworldindata.org/soil-lifespans Sustainababble is your friendly environment podcast, out weekly. Theme music by the legendary Dicky Moore – @dickymoo. Sustainababble logo by the splendid Arthur Stovell at Design by Mondial. Ecoguff read out by Arabella. Love the babble? Bung us a few pennies at www.patreon.com/sustainababble. MERCH: sustainababble.teemill.com Available on iTunes, Spotify, Acast & all those types of things, or at sustainababble.fish. Visit us at @thebabblewagon and at Facebook.com/sustainababble. Email us at hello@sustainababble.fish.

13 de julio | Nueva YorkHola, maricoper. Cuba libre.Bienvenido a La Wikly diaria, una columna de actualidad y dos titulares rápidos para pasar el resto del día bien informado. Si quieres comentar las noticias en nuestra comunidad privada de Discord, puedes entrar rellenando este formulario.Leer esta newsletter te llevará 4 minutos y 49 segundos.Centauros neoyorquinos. Bienvenido a La Wikly.

Anxiety is something we have all experienced a one time or other. Or at least I'm assuming you have by the very fact you're on this site. Here are some fun facts about anxiety that I found here; An estimated 284 million people worldwide experienced an anxiety disorder in 2017, making it the most prevalent mental health disorder on the planet (Ritchie, Hannah and Roser, Max. “Anxiety Disorders.” Our World In Data. Accessed May 14, 2019) Anxiety disorders are the most common of mental disorders and will affect nearly 30% of adults at some point in their lives.[4] Even though anxiety disorders are highly treatable, only about 1/3 of those suffering receive adequate treatment What is anxiety? According to authors Kaplan and Sadock, anxiety is “a diffuse, unpleasant, vague sense of apprehension ” and is often a response to an imagined, imprecise, or unknown threat. For example, let's say you're walking down a dark street. You might feel a bit apprehensive and have butterflies in your stomach, or be overcome with a sense of dread. These feelings are caused by the anxiety that is related to the possibility that a nasty stranger may jump out from behind a van and ask for your wallet, or worse. This anxiety is not the result of a known or specific threat because you don't know for sure that there's a nasty man lurking about. Instead, it's all in your head; you're imagining that there might be a nasty man. You may argue with that, saying, “Well, I'm in a dodgy part of town that's littered with questionable characters on every street corner, so I'm pretty confident that this is a real threat,” but it only becomes real when a man actually appears. Then fear kicks in. Fear is an emotional response to a known or definite threat. Staying in our darkened street, let's say someone does appear from behind that rusty old van and holds a knife up in your face, asking for your mobile phone and wallet; this would trigger your fear response. In this case, the danger is real, definite, and immediate. Anxiety vs fear - what's the difference? So the main difference between fear and anxiety, is that anxiety is this vague sense of unease and apprehension,  about things we IMAGINE about the future, whereas fear is triggered in the moment when we are faced with a threatening situation. This all gets very fuzzy though because our fear radar is completely out of whack because of modern society and the fact that we rarely face situations that threaten our life. And given that fear and anxiety produce very similar physiological responses, it's obvious why we might confuse the two or think of them as being interchangeable. Thankfully when it comes to getting rid of fears or anxiety, it doesn't matter which it is because Head Trash Clearance doesn't care. But it can be very useful to make the distinction for our own self-awareness and being able to manage or cope with it. If you want to read more about the difference between anxiety and fear, this blog post dives into this in more detail; https://clearyourheadtrash.com/articles/fear-and-anxiety/ What does anxiety look like? At least, what does it look like in terms of head trash? Here is an example of how anxiety might show up for someone, maybe you? Let's say you hate not being in control because you can't stand chaos. Things need to be ordered and well planned for you. Everything you do, you prepare to the nth degree. And you do that to help you to FEEL in control. Your need for control also means that you hold on to stuff (emotions, dramas, things). This means that you can't fully let go AND let yourself go because you're worried about looking silly or appearing weak. If you look silly or weak you won't be taken seriously and then people might not like you. If people don't like you then you might feel like you don't belong or rejected and if you're rejected you think you're not good enough. And if you're not good enough then you'll mess up and be a total failure and no one will want anything to do with you and you'll be all alone. And if there's one thing you fear more than anything it's being, feeling, living and dying alone. This is what anxiety looks like. Does this seem familiar to you? This kind of tangled up head trash is hiding in all sorts of pockets in your life and mind; Health Food Relationship Parenting Work Business And unfortunately it creates lots of rubbish side effects. The unfortunate side effects of anxiety Anxiety is the obvious symptom but there's more. The conflicts that are in place will create self-sabotaging patterns and keep you stuck in unhelpful patterns of behaviour. You'll procrastinate on things you actually WANT to do. And because your mind is juggling all of these conflicts and fears, it takes AGES to get anything done: your productivity and effectiveness will suck. And all of this will probably keep you up at night and stop you from getting a decent nights sleep. Which means that during the day you'll reach for the caffeine and sugary snacks to give you the energy to make it through. To avoid facing up to the barrage of these thoughts, you'll want to find ways to escape.. a few drinks, recreational drugs or sleeping tablets. It can be a slippery slope, but that doesn't mean we can't put a stop to it. And it also doesn't have to take that long. So how do we get rid of anxiety? How do we get rid of anxiety? It's simple. We unravel it and clear it one piece at a time. In the unravelling, themes begin to emerge. From what I've shared above, one of the key themes would include control. This is a biggie for a lot of people and shows up in all aspects of our lives. Other themes might includes decisiveness and hesitation change and uncertainty procrastination and action-taking adulting (growing up and acting like the adult you are) trapped and stuck how we relate to others honesty and integrity These themes are extensive and show up for everyone in varying degrees. It's the nature of being human. If you want to reduce your anxiety, then I would recommend exploring these key themes and asking yourself what you fear or worry about. Do you worry about things like; making the wrong decision or messing up? things changing or your life/body changing? taking on responsibility? having no choices or feeling trapped? feeling unsupported or asking for help? being lied to? These are just some of the questions that will help you to unravel your head trash. Once you've unravelled, you're probably going to find yourself facing a long list. Thats OK. Don't feel overwhelmed by it. If you do, then put "overwhelm" at the top of the list. Typically, someone with anxiety will have around 40-60 things on their list. If you commit to clearing 6 things a week, then you could be noticing a HUGE impact in how you feel in just 10 weeks. That's not even 3 months! To make this easy for you, I've compiled the most common clearances that people have needed to do in all of these key themes and they are all in the Clearance Club. The Clearance Club is a vault of head trash clearance resources that have been created to help you clear your head trash quickly and easily. You just need to be able to read and follow simple instructions and you're good to go. Of course, you might prefer guidance and support on this journey.

Become smarter in 5 minutes by signing up for free today: http://cen.yt/mbminuteearth - Thanks to Morning Brew for sponsoring today’s video. Because there are so many different types of penises among our evolutionary relatives, we didn’t know until a recent discovery whether they all had the same origin. LEARN MORE ************** To learn more about this topic, start your googling with these keywords: - Amniote: Vertebrates whose embryos are enclosed in a thin sac. - Cloaca: A posterior orifice used for excretion and reproduction. - Cloacal Kiss: A method that penisless amniotes use to mate, which involves males and females momentarily pressing their cloacae together. - Tuatara: Reptiles endemic to New Zealand that are the only surviving members of their ancient amniote group. - Hemipenis: One of the paired copulatory organs of lizards and snakes. - Bmp4: A protein that, when present, stifles the growth of penises in chick embryos. - Convergent Evolution: The independent evolution of similar features in different species. SUPPORT MINUTEEARTH ************************** If you like what we do, you can help us!: - Become our patron: https://patreon.com/MinuteEarth - Share this video with your friends and family - Leave us a comment (we read them!) CREDITS ********* Emily Willingham | Script Writer David Goldenberg | Script Editor & Narrator Adam Thompson | Illustration, Video Editing and Animation Ever Salazar | Director Nathaniel Schroeder | Music MinuteEarth is produced by Neptune Studios LLC https://neptunestudios.info OUR STAFF ************ Sarah Berman • Arcadi Garcia i Rius David Goldenberg • Julián Gustavo Gómez Melissa Hayes • Alex Reich • Henry Reich • Peter Reich Ever Salazar • Leonardo Souza • Kate Yoshida OUR LINKS ************ Youtube | https://youtube.com/MinuteEarth TikTok | https://tiktok.com/@minuteearth Twitter | https://twitter.com/MinuteEarth Instagram | https://instagram.com/minute_earth Facebook | https://facebook.com/Minuteearth Website | https://minuteearth.com Apple Podcasts| https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/minuteearth/id649211176 REFERENCES ************** Ortiz-Ospina, E. (2017). “Life Expectancy” – What does this actually mean?. Our World In Data. Retrieved from: https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy-how-is-it-calculated-and-how-should-it-be-interpreted. Dendy, Arthur. 1899. “Memoirs: Outlines of the Development of the Tuatara, Sphenodon (Hatteria) punctatus.” Journal of Cell Science s2-42: 1–87. Cree, Alison. 2014. Tuatara: Biology and Conservation of a Venerable Survivor. Christchurch, New Zealand: Canterbury University Press. Gans, Carl, James C. Gillingham, and David Lang Clark. 1984. “Courtship, Mating and Male Combat in Tuatara, Sphenodon punctatus.” Journal of Herpetology 18 (2): 194–97. Retrieved from: https://doi.org/10.2307/1563749. Sanger, Thomas J., Marissa L. Gredler, and Martin J. Cohn. 2015. “Resurrecting Embryos of the Tuatara, Sphenodon punctatus, to Resolve Vertebrate Phallus Evolution.” Biology Letters 11 (10): pii: 20150694. REtreieved from: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2015.0694. Herrera, Ana María, Simone G. Shuster, Claire L. Perriton, and Martin J. Cohn. 2013. “Developmental Basis of Phallus Reduction During Bird Evolution.” Current Biology 23 (12): 1065–74. Retrieved from: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2013.04.062. Brennan, Patricia L. R. 2016a. “Evolution: One Penis After All.” Current Biology 26: R29–R31. Retrieved from: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2015.11.024. Willingham, Emily. 2020. Fallacy: Life Lessons from the Animal Penis. Avery. Retrieved from: https://www.amazon.com/Phallacy-Life-Lessons-Animal-Penis/dp/0593087178

Mientras aquí vivimos un momento muy complejo de la pandemia de covid-19, en Israel están cerrando los centros especializados que se habían armado para contenerla. Es muestra de cómo Israel está volviendo a la normalidad, gracias a una fuerte campaña de vacunación contra el covid-19, la más rápida del mundo. Abarca ya al 60% de la población, según datos del sitio Our World In Data. Luego de un pico de contagios y muertes a mediados de enero, la incidencia del covid-19 en la población israelí viene en picada. ¿Les parece si nos acercamos a esta realidad, a este ejemplo de cómo puede funcionar una vacunación efectiva? Para eso, hablamos con el periodista argentino Mariano Man, radicado en Tel Aviv.

Here's today's Big Hard Fact: According to Our World In Data, 552million worldwide have been vaccinated against COVID-19. What Do You Want To Know About The COVID-19 Vaccines? #NigeriainfoHF | @SEzekwesili

Standing in the affluent part of Glasgow, you can expect the people around you to live for 80 years. On the other side of town, they only live 54 years. The difference in only a few kilometres, but the factors in society and the environment around people can strongly determine their health. The determinants of health give us an insight into the differences we see around the world, and across town Sources: Books – Happy City: Transforming Our Lives Through Urban Design. Charles Montgomery Reports – History, politics and vulnerability: explaining excess mortality in Scotland and Glasgow. Glasgow Centre for Population Health. https://www.gcph.co.uk/assets/0000/5586/History_politics_and_vulnerability.pdf Youtube – ‘Health Inequalities and The Glasgow Effect’ Websites – Social Determinants of Health. HealthyPeople.gov. https://www.healthypeople.gov/2020/topics-objectives/topic/social-determinants-of-health Indoor Air Pollution. Our World In Data. https://ourworldindata.org/indoor-air-pollution Women and girls. Right to Education. https://www.right-to-education.org/girlswomen Articles – As Scotland’s ‘Trainspotting’ Generation Ages, the Dead Pile Up. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/07/world/europe/scotland-heroin-deaths.html Austerity to blame for 130,000 ‘preventable’ UK deaths – report. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/01/perfect-storm-austerity-behind-130000-deaths-uk-ippr-report Air pollution kills 1.2 mn Indians in a year, third biggest cause of death. Business Standard. https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/air-pollution-kills-1-2-mn-indians-in-a-year-third-biggest-cause-of-death-119040300300_1.html A Short Walk in the Wakhan Corridor. Outside Online. https://www.outsideonline.com/1885016/short-walk-wakhan-corridor Mortality and life expectancy in post-communist countries. Dialogue of Civilisations Research Institute. https://doc-research.org/2018/06/mortality-life-expectancy-post-communist/