Podcasts about Rust Belt

“City Life, Creeping Gentrification and Flesh-eating Snakes:” now that's a gripping tagline! Josh Green, editor of Urbanize Atlanta, joins Host Carol Morgan on the Atlanta Real Estate Forum Radio podcast to discuss his new novel, “Goodbye, Sweetberry Park,” which explores gentrification and urban development through the eyes of the fictional journalist, Archie “God” Johnson. From the Rust Belt to Urbanize Atlanta Green grew up in the Rust Belt and describes it as the “polar opposite of the growing Sun Belt population explosion.” As he began to explore the country, he was fascinated by the vibrance and quick growth of Atlanta and many Florida cities. Now the editor of Urbanize Atlanta, Green taps into his passion for urban development every day, providing readers with detailed perspectives on all things Atlanta. Urbanize Atlanta celebrates its fourth anniversary this year. Green said, “You get on the ground with a camera and just really explore the curiosities about what's happening and how it all links together.” Goodbye Sweetberry Park Following the success of his short story collection, “Dirtyville Rhapsodies” and first novel, “Secrets of Ash,” Green released a new novel, “Goodbye, Sweetberry Park,” earlier this year. The novel chronicles the joys and struggles of a fictional veteran journalist covering a chaotic summer in Atlanta. “It's kind of an amalgamation of a lot of different, fun, beautiful, lovely, troubled, historic intown Atlanta places ranging from West End to Cabbagetown,” said Green. “There's Grant Park mixed in, the fictional Zoo and then where I'm living now, Kirkwood and some Oakhurst.” “Goodbye Sweetberry Park” offers a more personal perspective of gentrification in Atlanta neighborhoods. Green says he draws from his experiences as an Atlanta reporter, so this novel serves as his “street-level” perspective on the topic. One of Green's early influences for the novel was an Atlanta Magazine article he wrote, “The Gentrifier.” He detailed his experience in buying a larger intown home for his family and becoming a “gentrifier” in the process. The article went on to win an Atlanta Press Association Award and sparked major conversations about modernization in the city. Green states that the neighborhood transformation that has stuck with him is the Atlanta Beltline. The trails offer alternative transportation, while restaurants and recreation are big influences for tourism to the city. As Atlanta grows and develops, the Beltline is an asset to connect residents to work, home and attractions. What About Affordable Housing? Transit-oriented development is one way that Green sees Atlanta adding affordable housing. Neighborhoods such as Candler Park are already one step ahead, converting unused MARTA parking lots into brilliant housing complexes and retail centers. With convenient proximity to local MARTA stations and rapid bus routes, residents can take transportation out of their monthly budgets, which makes housing more attainable in the long run. Tune in to the full episode to discover more about Atlanta gentrification and Green's experiences as an Atlanta journalist. Order your copy of “Goodbye, Sweetberry Park” on Amazon or at JoshRGreen.com. About Josh Green Josh Green is the editor of Urbanize Atlanta, a popular news site known for its colorful, up-close coverage of Atlanta. In March 2025, he released his second book, Goodbye, Sweetberry Park,” a brand-new story behind “Secrets of Ash,” the first installation in his Peach-State trilogy. “Dirtyville Rhapsodies,” his published book of short stories, was highly acclaimed from the start, named “Best Book for the Beach” by Men's Health and in Atlanta Magazine's “Top 10 Books of 2013.” Podcast Thanks Thank you to Denim Marketing for sponsoring Atlanta Real Estate Forum Radio. Known as a trendsetter, Denim Marketing has been blogging since 2006 and podcasting since 2011. Contact them when you need quality,

What do we know about the billionaire tech bros backing Vance who hate democracy? Is Vance the political face of a revolution for the super rich? Is he a voice for the Rust Belt, or an avatar for Silicon Valley? Join Rory and Alastair as they answer all these questions and more in Part 2 of their first ever miniseries, The Real JD Vance, exclusively for members of The Rest Is Politics Plus. Claim your FREE TRIAL at therestispolitics.com. The Rest Is Politics Plus: Become a member for exclusive bonus content, early access to Question Time episodes to live show tickets, ad-free listening for both TRIP and Leading, our exclusive newsletter, discount book prices on titles mentioned on the pod, and our members' chatroom on Discord. Join today or enjoy a free trial at ⁠therestispolitics.com⁠⁠. The Rest Is Politics is powered by Fuse Energy. Fuse are giving away FREE TRIP+ membership for all of 2025 to new sign ups

Adam Williams, founder of Rust Belt Legal and co-founder of Pennywise Tax Strategies, joins us to talk about his work as a small business consultant, speaker, author and influencer.

An underrated foodie town with a mosaic of tastes meticulously crafted in Cleveland's diverse neighborhoods, thanks to a couple of local innovators it's also a city that now supports a burgeoning non-alcoholic scene. On the heels of our visit to nearby Pittsburgh we sit down with Molly Cheraso, owner of the city's first and only non-alcoholic bottle shop, Verbena Free Spirited Shoppe, and Emily Tanski, owner of zero-proof bartending and events startup, Drink Fleurish. Together they have also launched Santé Supper Club, a new culinary series that draws upon the vibrant food scene that exists in the community, changing the definition of what an evening of great food, drinks and community can look like.Mentioned in this episode:Verbena Free Spirited ShoppeDrink FleurishSanté Supper Club Feed The Resistance 2025 Summer Series (from Santé Supper Club)We'd love your feedback!

In this episode of the Econ Dev Show, host Dane Carlson sits down with Tom Kucharski, President and CEO of Invest Buffalo Niagara, who has led the organization's transformation efforts for 25 years. Kucharski shares how Buffalo evolved from being the 8th largest U.S. city in 1960 to experiencing devastating industrial decline, and then orchestrating a remarkable comeback that includes the first population growth in decades. He discusses the region's competitive advantages including clean hydroelectric power from Niagara Falls, the 43 North business plan competition (the largest in the country with $1 million prizes), and securing the nation's only semiconductor tech hub designation. The conversation covers Buffalo's evolution into a hub for manufacturing, life sciences, and technology, while addressing new challenges like housing shortages that come with rapid growth and success. Like this show? Please leave us a review here (https://econdevshow.com/rate-this-podcast/) — even one sentence helps! Special Guest: Tom Kucharski.

[WEEKEND RECAP 06-01-25] For generations, Democrats have masqueraded as the defenders of the American laborer while quietly selling them out to the highest bidder—whether that meant shipping jobs overseas under NAFTA or flooding the market with cheap, illegal labor to suppress wages. The working class was always a convenient prop for their stump speeches, never the actual priority.Enter Trump.While Biden's open-border policies drove down wages and overwhelmed American cities, Trump didn't just talk about protecting workers—he did it. His border crackdowns, tariffs on Chinese goods, and relentless push for domestic manufacturing didn't just slow the bleeding—they reversed it. Under his administration, blue-collar wages rose for the first time in decades, factories reopened, and the Rust Belt got a second life.Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-kevin-jackson-show--2896352/support.

Today we talk about the creation of what will be an epic freshwater adventure, the Rustbelt 950. I sit down with Jeff; the creator of the event and we talk about the inspirations as well as the fine details that have been laid out so far. The goal is for the first race to start in the summer of 2026, for more information check out the website here:  https://glexpeditionaryclub.org/rust-belt-950 Instagram: @rustbelt950 Support this Podcast on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/sailingintooblivionpodcast Help fund my next adventure here: https://gofund.me/6df0fb45 One Time Donations Via PayPal and Venmo: https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/JeromeRand https://account.venmo.com/u/sailingintooblivion Amazon WishList:https://www.amazon.com/hz/wishlist/ls/33F36RF315G8V?ref_=wl_share Children's Book: https://a.co/d/1q2Xkev Sailing Into Oblivion Children's Audio Book: Audible.com Sailing Merch: https://www.bonfire.com/store/sailing-into-oblivion/ Books: https://a.co/d/eYaP10M Reach out to the Show: https://www.sailingintooblivion.com/podcasts  

Today, we're bringing you an episode from our fellow FT podcast, Behind the Money. Massive conglomerates used to define corporate best practice. Think about a company like General Electric, known as “the everything company”. But today, there's a new popular model: de-conglomeration. The FT's former US energy reporter Amanda Chu examines whether this is working for a power business that GE spun off last year – or if it's just another Wall Street fad. Clips from BBC, Bloomberg, DW - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - For further reading:Rustbelt gamble: GE Vernova rides AI power boom into uncertain futureIs the US power grid ready to meet the demands of data centres?Have America's industrial giants forgotten what they are for?- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Follow Amanda Chu on X (@amandalanchu). Michela Tindera is on X (@mtindera07) and Bluesky (@mtindera.ft.com), or follow her on LinkedIn for updates about the show and more. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Middlebury professor Gary Winslett argues the South—not China—poached the Rust Belt's manufacturing base by out-competing it on policy.

Massive conglomerates used to define corporate best practice. Think about a company like General Electric, known as “the everything company”. But today, there's a new popular model: de-conglomeration. The FT's former US energy reporter Amanda Chu examines whether this is working for a power business that GE spun off last year – or if it's just another Wall Street fad. Clips from BBC, Bloomberg, DW - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - For further reading:Rustbelt gamble: GE Vernova rides AI power boom into uncertain futureIs the US power grid ready to meet the demands of data centres?Have America's industrial giants forgotten what they are for?- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Follow Amanda Chu on X (@amandalanchu). Michela Tindera is on X (@mtindera07) and Bluesky (@mtindera.ft.com), or follow her on LinkedIn for updates about the show and more. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

David and Rachel discuss the fall and rise of Youngstown, Ohio. Script by Joey K.

Nate Winston returns to the podcast one year after a dramatic business split — and he's not the same guy. In this raw and reflective conversation, Nate opens up about the emotional toll of walking away from a 20-year friendship and 16-year partnership, the legal chaos that followed, and how he's found peace building his own shop from the ground up. From implementing Profit First to sandblasting therapy in the Rust Belt, Nate shares the lessons that helped him regain control, find happiness, and say no thanks to hiring. If you've ever felt stuck, burned out, or betrayed in business — this one hits deep.

Welcome back to the unSeminary podcast during our All About Multisite month. Today we're talking with David Ashcraft, CEO and President of the Global Leadership Network (GLN), and former Senior Pastor of LCBC Church in Pennsylvania. Are you wrestling with growing pains as your church multiplies? How does an expanding multisite church keep its vision […]

Matt Crawford speaks with author Will Bardenwerper about his book, Homestand: Small Town Baseball and the Fight for the Soul of America. What happens when a minor league team—the heart and soul of a Rust Belt town in western New York—is shut down by the billionaires who run Major League Baseball? Batavia, New York—between Rochester and Buffalo—hosted its first professional baseball game in 1897. Despite decades of deindustrialization and evaporating middle-class jobs, the Batavia Muckdogs endured. When Major League Baseball cravenly shut them down in 2020—along with forty-one other minor league teams—the town fought back, reviving the Muckdogs as a summer league team comprised of college players. As MLB considers further cuts and private equity buys up what remains, the mom-and-pop operations once prevalent in baseball are endangered. But for now, the sights and sounds of local baseball live on in Batavia—cheap draft beer and hot dogs, starry-eyed kids seeking autographs, and breathtaking summer sunsets. With a vibrant, unforgettable cast of characters—from a librarian and her best friend whose relationship deepens with every “crepuscular hour” they spend together in the bleachers, to the former hockey brawler-turned team owner who greets regulars while working the concession stand, to the iconoclastic writer with a contagious love for his struggling hometown—Bardenwerper's Homestand exposes the beating heart of small town America, friends and neighbors coming together as the crack of the bat echoes in the summer twilight.

Like the show? Show your support by using our sponsors. Promotive can help you find your dream job, or help you hire. Touch HERE for more. Need to update your shop systems and software? Try Tekmetric HEREIn this episode, Jeff Compton is joined by Brett T. Fadley to discuss the upcoming TOOLS training event in Lancaster, Pennsylvania. Brett shares how TOOLS got started and how far it's come, but then gets into the challenges the auto repair industry has today. To get where the industry needs to be, events like TOOLS are critical. Sign up for TOOLS here!00:00 Understanding Financial Struggles of Shop Owners05:46 In-Person Networking's Hidden Value12:37 Business Challenges and Implementing Processes19:56 Improving Shop Efficiency Discussions23:38 Rust Advisory for Ontario Car Sales29:48 Mechanics' Career Transition Paths34:50 Car Repair Recommendations Debate39:44 Changing Industry Perceptions Needed47:55 Exit Scheduling Success in Auto Services51:37 "Networking: Reducing the 'Suck' Factor"54:46 Grateful for Career Purpose59:28 Engine Installation Decisions in Shops01:08:17 Limited Podcast Space Allocation01:12:26 Summer Event Invitation Follow/Subscribe to the show on social media! TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@jeffcompton7YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@TheJadedMechanicFacebook - https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100091347564232

Behind the celebrated image of Jimmy Carter as a Nobel Peace Prize-winning humanitarian lies a presidential legacy that demands closer examination. This revealing conversation with historian Robert Buzzanco challenges the sanitized narrative of Carter's presidency, exposing how he functioned as a crucial transitional figure between postwar liberalism and the full flowering of neoliberalism under Reagan.Buzzanco methodically dismantles popular misconceptions, documenting how Carter accelerated Cold War tensions rather than reducing them. While Nixon had pursued détente with both China and the Soviet Union, Carter reversed course, supporting the genocidal Khmer Rouge, working with apartheid South Africa against liberation movements in Angola, and initiating support for the Mujahideen fighters who would later evolve into Al-Qaeda. These military interventions reveal a hawkish president whose actions directly contradict his later humanitarian image.On the domestic front, Carter's presidency marks the beginning of neoliberal economic policies that would reshape American society. His administration aggressively pursued deregulation across multiple industries, appointed inflation hawk Paul Volcker to the Federal Reserve, sidelined labor unions, and rejected government intervention when factories closed in the Rust Belt. These policies accelerated the decline of working-class living standards and laid the groundwork for Reagan's more explicit dismantling of the New Deal consensus.Perhaps most strikingly, Carter's political transformation after leaving office represents one of the most remarkable second acts in American political history. The same man who collaborated with China to punish Vietnam later won the Nobel Peace Prize and wrote "Palestine Peace, Not Apartheid." Understanding this contradiction helps illuminate broader patterns in American politics, where Democratic administrations have repeatedly embraced corporate-friendly policies while facing pressure to move rightward after electoral defeats.Have we been too quick to sanitize Carter's legacy because of his admirable humanitarian work? What does this selective memory tell us about our political culture? Listen now to this thought-provoking deconstruction of a presidential legacy that continues to shape our world today.You can find Robert Buzzanco's work:https://www.counterpunch.org/2023/03/02/jimmy-carter-is-a-liberal-saint-now-was-a-war-criminal-then/https://afflictthecomfortable.org/https://creators.spotify.com/pod/dashboard/episodesSend us a text Musis by Bitterlake, Used with Permission, all rights to BitterlakeSupport the showCrew:Host: C. Derick VarnIntro and Outro Music by Bitter Lake.Intro Video Design: Jason MylesArt Design: Corn and C. Derick VarnLinks and Social Media:twitter: @varnvlogblue sky: @varnvlog.bsky.socialYou can find the additional streams on YoutubeCurrent Patreon at the Sponsor Tier: Jordan Sheldon, Mark J. Matthews, Lindsay Kimbrough, RedWolf, DRV, Kenneth McKee, JY Chan, Matthew Monahan

Mansfield, and other cities within commuting distance of the planned Licking County Intel plant, are preparing for growth after a long period of decline.

Trump & company want to turn us into Taiwan circa 1985. But the brilliant minds behind the idea of intentionally weakening the dollar are prioritizing making America a good place to manufacture rather than a good place to live. If the administration stays on this track, this country will have lower incomes, higher inflation, and weaker buying power—and more expensive beer and tomatoes. Maybe we were better off with Jared there. Meanwhile, in the Rust Belt, some Dems are arguing for a smarter version of tariffs. Plus, Abrego Garcia's union brothers want him home and Trump wants to fight with Harvard. Rep. Chris Deluzio and Josh Barro join Tim Miller. show notes Rep. Deluzio's NYT piece arguing for smarter tariffs Josh's NYT piece on how Trump is giving Dems a gift with his tariffs

In den USA jagt eine Schlagzeile die nächste – und Donald Trump erlässt Zölle, hebt sie wieder auf, erlässt weitere Zölle gegen China. Tagesthemen-Moderator Ingo Zamperoni und US-Journalistin Jiffer Bourguignon fragen: Geht es um Zahlen – oder um Show? Trump stilisiert die USA zum defizitären Unternehmen, das er sanieren will. Doch ökonomisch hinkt der Vergleich. Politisch aber trifft er ins Schwarze: Seine Botschaften zielen auf jene im Rust Belt, die sich als Verlierer der Globalisierung sehen. Das Ehepaar analysiert Trumps Kalkül zwischen Chaos und Kontrolle – und fragt sich: Ist das Strategie oder reine Inszenierung? Die Folgen für die Weltwirtschaft sind real: Nervöse Märkte und Aktienverluste. Obwohl Trumps Zolldrohungen und wirtschaftspolitische Maßnahmen angekündigt waren, ist die Welt oft überrascht von ihrer Konsequenz. Die Folge zeigt eindrücklich, wie schwer es ist, zwischen Kalkül und Instinkt, zwischen Strategie und Selbstinszenierung zu unterscheiden – und welche Risiken das für die Weltwirtschaft birgt. Und während Jiffers Vater zur Geduld mahnt, Jiffers Mutter demonstrieren geht, vermutet Ingo: Vielleicht steckt mehr dahinter – ein Spiel mit Erwartungen, mit der Binnenkonjunktur, mit uns allen. Was bleibt, ist ein Bild der Unklarheit: Ob es Trumps Ziel ist, das Handelsdefizit auszugleichen, den Dollar zu schwächen oder einfach nur Aufmerksamkeit zu erzeugen, scheint offen. Fakt ist: Mit einem Tweet bringt Donald Trump die Weltwirtschaft ins Wanken – oder beruhigt sie wieder. Die einzige vernünftige Reaktion scheint daher: Ruhe bewahren, nicht jede Drohung sofort ernst zu nehmen. Feedback bitte an: podcast@ndr.de Alle Folgen „Amerika, wir müssen reden!“ https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/info/podcast4932.html 11KM Stories: https://www.ardaudiothek.de/sendung/11km-stories/72451786/

The stock market is moving up to 8-9% up and down daily. The volatility is stomach churning.   The primary concern is tariffs. It is uncertain if China will agree to a fair trade deal.   China exports five times more to the US than the US exports to China. Tariffs affect China far more than the US. They are at a significant disadvantage.   Globalist free trade proponents promised they following:   1. Free trade would lead to fair trade policies. Nations would follow the rules to remain trading partners. 2. Oppressive regimes would become more democratic. 3. Low income, unskilled workers would create a robust middle class worldwide due to free trade. 4. The US would lose manufacturing jobs but there would be plenty of opportunities in the new economy.   The globalist free trade advocates were horribly wrong.   1. China is famous for not following the rules, cheating, and stealing technology. 2. China is still communist and is more oppressive than a few decades ago. 3. Slave labor wages are still common around the world. A middle class does not exist in many countries. 4. Most Americans who lost manufacturing jobs never learned how to code. An entire region is known as the "Rust Belt".   The American people never voted for this. Globalist free trade was foisted on us by a class of self-proclaimed elites.   Independence is a founding principle of our country. A country that cannot produce what it needs is not independent.   America cannot produce many of the things it invented. We are no longer self-reliant.    The globalist free trade advocates were so wrong it is surprising anyone still listens to them.     The top 10% own 88% of stocks in the US. The next 40% own 12% of stocks. The bottom 50% have debt.   Lower energy prices benefit everyone. Cheaper gas impacts most Americans far more than a higher stock market.     The Trump administration is changing decades of tariff policy. The transition will be volatile. If the current administration is successful, the long-term benefit for the US will be tremendous. I believe we are in for a chaotic year and a bumpy economic ride this year. It would be wise to protect your assets. Diversify. Reduce your risk. Reduce your tax liability. Increase returns safely. Increase liquidity to take advantage of future opportunities.   This is the "Golden Era" of fixed assets. The best rates in 40+ years! Insured with guarantees.      - Your Personal Bank policies are insured, with guarantees, income tax-free, highly liquid, and likely to increase returns for the next 5-10 years!      - Fixed Index Annuities have the best upside potential in 40+ years with no downside market risk. The principle is guaranteed. Some offer signing bonuses up to 16% with strong upside potential.      - Guaranteed Lifetime Income is the highest in 40+ years. Some products offer up to 30% signing bonus. Other products offer up to 10% increased guaranteed lifetime income each year you defer.  

Kate Adie presents stories from the USA, Myanmar, The Dominican Republic, Afghanistan and the Greek island of Syros President Trump's decision to impose huge tariffs across the world drew ire from Wall Street financiers this week - and even members of his own Republican party. But what do his supporters in small-town America think? Mike Wendling travelled to Delta, Ohio, in America's rust belt, where locals have other things on their mind.In Myanmar the military junta has restricted foreign rescue teams' access to areas damaged by the recent earthquake - not to mention international media. After entering the country undercover, Yogita Limaye reports from the city of Mandalay, close to the earthquake's epicentre.The Dominican Republic announced three days of national mourning this week, after the roof of a popular nightclub collapsed, killing more than two hundred people. Will Grant visited the scene in the capital Santo Domingo, where an investigation is now under way as to what caused the collapse.Since returning to power in Afghanistan, the Taliban have steadily increased restrictions on the country's citizens and the introduction of a huge CCTV network in the capital Kabul has alarmed human rights groups. The Taliban says it is to combat crime, but Mahjooba Nowrouzi says there is unease over what else might be under surveillance.The battle for dominance in the electric car market is in full swing, but the EV evolution has been a long time in the making, as Sara Wheeler discovered when she stumbled across one of the world's first mass-produced models on the Greek island of Syros.Series producer: Serena Tarling Production Coordinators: Katie Morrison & Sophie Hill Editor: Richard Fenton-Smith

In late February in DC, I attended the US premiere of the Bertelsmann Foundation of North America produced documentary “Lithium Rising”, a movie about the extraction of essential rare minerals like lithium, nickel and cobalt. Afterwards, I moderated a panel featuring the movie's director Samuel George, the Biden US Department of Energy Director Giulia Siccardo and Environmental Lawyer JingJing Zhang (the "Erin Brockovich of China"). In post Liberation Day America, of course, the issues addressed in both “Lithium Rising” and our panel discussion - particularly US-Chinese economic rivalry over these essential rare minerals - are even more relevant. Tariffs or not, George's important new movie uncovers the essential economic and moral rules of today's rechargeable battery age. FIVE TAKEAWAYS* China dominates the critical minerals supply chain, particularly in refining lithium, cobalt, and nickel - creating a significant vulnerability for the United States and Western countries who rely on these minerals for everything from consumer electronics to military equipment.* Resource extraction creates complex moral dilemmas in communities like those in Nevada, Bolivia, Congo, and Chile, where mining offers economic opportunities but also threatens environment and sacred lands, often dividing local populations.* History appears to be repeating itself with China's approach in Africa mirroring aspects of 19th century European colonialism, building infrastructure that primarily serves to extract resources while local communities remain impoverished.* Battery recycling offers a potential "silver lining" but faces two major challenges: making the process cost-effective compared to new mining, and accumulating enough recycled materials to create a closed-loop system, which could take decades.* The geopolitical competition for these minerals is intensifying, with tariffs and trade wars affecting global supply chains and the livelihoods of workers throughout the system, from miners to manufacturers. FULL TRANSCRIPTAndrew Keen: Hello, everybody. Last year, we did a show on a new book. It was a new book back then called Cobalt Red about the role of cobalt, the mineral in the Congo. We also did a show. The author of the Cobalt Red book is Siddharth Kara, and it won a number of awards. It's the finalist for the Pulitzer Prize. We also did a show with Ernest Scheyder, who authored a book, The War Below, Lithium, Copper, and the Global Battle to Power Our Lives. Lithium and cobalt are indeed becoming the critical minerals of our networked age. We've done two books on it, and a couple of months ago, I went to the premiere, a wonderful new film, a nonfiction documentary by my guest Samuel George. He has a new movie out called Lithium Rising and I moderated a panel in Washington DC and I'm thrilled that Samuel George is joining us now. He works with the Bertelsmann Foundation of North America and it's a Bertelsman funded enterprise. Sam, congratulations on the movie. It's quite an achievement. I know you traveled all over the world. You went to Europe, Latin America, a lot of remarkable footage also from Africa. How would you compare the business of writing a book like Cobalt read or the war below about lithium and cobalt and the challenges and opportunities of doing a movie like lithium rising what are the particular challenges for a movie director like yourself.Samuel George: Yeah, Andrew. Well, first of all, I just want to thank you for having me on the program. I appreciate that. And you're right. It is a very different skill set that's required. It's a different set of challenges and also a different set of opportunities. I mean, the beauty of writing, which is something I get a chance to do as well. And I should say we actually do have a long paper coming out of this process that I wrote that will probably be coming out in the next couple months. But the beauty of writing is you need to kind of understand your topic, and if you can really understand your topics, you have the opportunity to explain it. When it comes to filming, if the camera doesn't have it, you don't have it. You might have a sense of something, people might explain things to you in a certain way, but if you don't have it on your camera in a way that's digestible and easy for audience to grasp, it doesn't matter whether you personally understand it or not. So the challenge is really, okay, maybe you understand the issue, but how do you show it? How do you bring your audience to that front line? Because that's the opportunity that you have that you don't necessarily have when you write. And that's to take an audience literally to these remote locations that they've never been and plant their feet right in the ground, whether that be the Atacama in Northern Chile, whether that'd be the red earth of Colwaisy in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. And that's the beauty of it, but it takes more of making sure you get something not just whether you understand it is almost irrelevant. I mean I guess you do need to understand it but you need to be able to draw it out of a place. It's easier when you're writing to get to some of these difficult places because you don't have to bring 900 pounds of equipment and you can kind of move easier and you're much more discreet. You can get places much easier as you can imagine, where with this, you're carrying all this equipment down. You're obvious from miles away. So you really have to build relationships and get people to get comfortable with you and be willing to speak out. So it's different arts, but it's also different rewards. And the beauty of being able to combine analysis with these visuals is really the draw of what makes documentary so magic because you're really kind of hitting different senses at the same time, visual, audio, and combining it to hopefully make some sort of bigger story.Andrew Keen: Well, speaking, Sam, of audio and visuals, we've got a one minute clip or introduction to the movie. People just listening on this podcast won't get to see your excellent film work, but everybody else will. So let's just have a minute to see what lithium rising is all about. We'll be back in a minute.[Clip plays]Andrew Keen: Here's a saying that says that the natural resources are today's bread and tomorrow's hunger. Great stuff, Sam. That last quote was in Spanish. Maybe you want to translate that to English, because I think, in a sense, it summarizes what lithium rising is about.Samuel George: Right. Well, that's this idea that natural resources in a lot of these places, I mean, you have to take a step back that a lot of these resources, you mentioned the lithium, the cobalt, you can throw nickel into that conversation. And then some of the more traditional ones like copper and silver, a lot are in poor countries. And for centuries, the opportunity to access this has been like a mirage, dangled in front of many of these poor countries as an opportunity to become more wealthy. Yet what we continue to see is the wealth, the mineral wealth of these countries is sustaining growth around the world while places like Potosí and Bolivia remain remarkably poor. So the question on their minds is, is this time gonna be any different? We know that Bolivia has perhaps the largest lithium deposits in the world. They're struggling to get to it because they're fighting amongst each other politically about what's the best way to do it, and is there any way to it that, hey, for once, maybe some of this resource wealth can stay here so that we don't end up, as the quote said, starving. So that's where their perspective is. And then on the other side, you have the great powers of the world who are engaged in a massive competition for access to these minerals.Andrew Keen: And let's be specific, Sam, we're not talking about 19th century Europe and great powers where there were four or five, they're really only two great powers when it comes to these resources, aren't they?Samuel George: I mean, I think that's fair to say. I think some people might like to lump in Western Europe and the EU with the United States to the extent that we used to traditionally conceive of them as being on the same team. But certainly, yes, this is a competition between the United States and China. And it's one that, frankly, China is winning and winning handily. And we can debate what that means, but it's true. I showed this film in London. And a student, who I believe was Chinese, commented, is it really fair to even call this a race? Because it seems to be over.Andrew Keen: Yeah, it's over. You showed it at King's College in London. I heard it was an excellent event.Samuel George: Yeah, it really was. But the point here is, to the extent that it's a competition between the United States and China, which it is, China is winning. And that's of grave concern to Washington. So there's the sense that the United States needs to catch up and need to catch up quickly. So that's the perspective that these two great powers are going at it from. Whereas if you're the Democratic Republic of Congo, if you are Bolivia, if your Chile, you're saying, what can we do to try to make the most of this opportunity and not just get steamrolled?Andrew Keen: Right. And you talk about a grave concern. Of course, there is grave concern both in Washington, D.C. and Beijing in terms of who's winning this race for these natural resources that are driving our networked age, our battery powered age. Some people might think the race has ended. Some people may even argue that it hasn't even really begun. But of course, one of the biggest issues, and particularly when it comes to the Chinese, is this neocolonial element. This was certainly brought out in Cobalt Red, which is quite a controversial book about the way in which China has essentially colonized the Congo by mining Cobalt in Congo, using local labor and then shipping out these valuable resources back to China. And of course, it's part of a broader project in Africa of the Chinese, which for some critics actually not that different from European 19th century colonialism. That's why we entitled our show with Siddharth Kara, The New Heart of Darkness. Of course, the original Heart of darkness was Joseph Conrad's great novel that got turned into Apocalypse Now. Is history repeating itself, Sam, when it comes to these natural resources in terms of the 19th-century history of colonialism, particularly in Africa?Samuel George: Yeah, I mean, I think it's so one thing that's fair to say is you hear a lot of complaining from the West that says, well, look, standards are not being respected, labor is being taken advantage of, environment is not being taken care of, and this is unfair. And this is true, but your point is equally true that this should not be a foreign concept to the West because it's something that previously the West was clearly engaged in. And so yes, there is echoes of history repeating itself. I don't think there's any other way to look at it. I think it's a complicated dynamic because sometimes people say, well, why is the West not? Why is it not the United States that's in the DRC and getting the cobalt? And I think that's because it's been tough for the United states to find its footing. What China has done is increasingly, and then we did another documentary about this. It's online. It's called Tinder Box Belt and Road, China and the Balkans. And what we increasingly see is in these non-democracies or faulty democracies that has something that China's interested in. China's willing to show up and basically put a lot of money on the table and not ask a whole lot of questions. And if the West, doesn't wanna play that game, whatever they're offering isn't necessarily as attractive. And that's a complication that we see again and again around the world and one, the United States and Europe and the World Bank and Western institutions that often require a lot of background study and open tenders for contracts and democracy caveats and transparency. China's not asking for any of that, as David Dollar, a scholar, said in the prior film, if the World Bank says they're going to build you a road, it's going to be a 10-year process, and we'll see what happens. If China says they'll build you a road a year later, you'll have a road.Andrew Keen: But then the question sound becomes, who owns the road?Samuel George: So let's take the Democratic Republic of the Congo, another great option. China has been building a lot of roads there, and this is obviously beneficial to a country that has very limited infrastructure. It's not just to say everything that China is doing is bad. China is a very large and economically powerful country. It should be contributing to global infrastructure. If it has the ability to finance that, wonderful. We all know Africa, certain African countries can really benefit from improved infrastructure. But where do those roads go? Well, those roads just happen to conveniently connect to these key mineral deposits where China overwhelmingly owns the interest and the minerals.Andrew Keen: That's a bit of a coincidence, isn't it?Samuel George: Well, exactly. And I mean, that's the way it's going. So that's what they'll come to the table. They'll put money on the table, they'll say, we'll get you a road. And, you know, what a coincidence that roads going right by the cobalt mine run by China. That's debatable. If you're from the African perspective, you could say, look, we got a road, and we needed that road. And it could also be that there's a lot of money disappearing in other places. But, you know that that's a different question.Andrew Keen: One of the things I liked about Lithium Rising, the race for critical minerals, your new documentary, is it doesn't pull its punches. Certainly not when it comes to the Chinese. You have some remarkable footage from Africa, but also it doesn't pull its punches in Latin America, or indeed in the United States itself, where cobalt has been discovered and it's the indigenous peoples of some of the regions where cobalt, sorry, where lithium has been discovered, where the African versus Chinese scenario is being played out. So whether it's Bolivia or the western parts of the United States or Congo, the script is pretty similar, isn't it?Samuel George: Yeah, you certainly see themes in the film echoed repeatedly. You mentioned what was the Thacker Pass lithium mine that's being built in northern Nevada. So people say, look, we need lithium. The United States needs lithium. Here's the interesting thing about critical minerals. These are not rare earth minerals. They're actually not that rare. They're in a lot of places and it turns out there's a massive lithium deposit in Nevada. Unfortunately, it's right next to a Native American reservation. This is an area that this tribe has been kind of herded onto after years, centuries of oppression. But the way the documentary tries to investigate it, it is not a clear-cut story of good guy and bad guy, rather it's a very complicated situation, and in that specific case what you have is a tribe that's divided, because there's some people that say, look, this is our land, this is a sacred site, and this is going to be pollution, but then you have a whole other section of the tribe that says we are very poor and this is an opportunity for jobs such that we won't have to leave our area, that we can stay here and work. And these kind of entangled complications we see repeated over and over again. Cobalt is another great example. So there's some people out there that are saying, well, we can make a battery without cobalt. And that's not because they can make a better battery. It's because they want to avoid the Democratic Republic of the Congo. But that cobalt is providing a rare job opportunity. And we can debate the quality of the job, but for the people that are working it, as they say in my film, they say, look, if we could do something else, we would do it. But this is all there is. So if you deprive them of that, the situation gets even worse. And that something we see in Northern Chile. We see it in Nevada. We see in Africa. We see it in Indonesia. What the film does is it raises these moral questions that are incredibly important to talk about. And it sort of begs the question of, not only what's the answer, but who has the right to answer this? I mean, who has right to speak on behalf of the 10 communities that are being destroyed in Northern Chile?Andrew Keen: I have to admit, I thought you did a very good job in the film giving everybody a voice, but my sympathy when it came to the Nevada case was with the younger people who wanted to bring wealth and development into the community rather than some of the more elderly members who were somehow anti-development, anti-investment, anti mining in every sense. I don't see how that benefits, but certainly not their children or the children of their children.Samuel George: I guess the fundamental question there is how bad is that mine going to be for the local environment? And I think that's something that remains to be seen. And one of the major challenges with this broader idea of are we going to greener by transitioning to EVs? And please understand I don't have an opinion of that. I do think anywhere you're doing mining, you're going to have immediate consequences. The transition would have to get big enough that the external the externalities, the positive benefits outweigh that kind of local negativity. And we could get there, but it's also very difficult to imagine massive mining projects anywhere in the world that don't impact the local population. And again, when we pick up our iPhone or when we get in our electric vehicle, we're not necessarily thinking of those 10 villages in the Atacama Desert in Chile.Andrew Keen: Yeah, and I've been up to the Atacama's, perhaps the most beautiful part in the world I've ever seen. It's nice. I saw the tourist side of it, so I didn't see the mining. But I take your point. There is one, perhaps, the most positive section of the film. You went to France. I think it was Calais, you took your camera. And it seems as if the French are pioneering a more innovative development of batteries which benefit the local community but also protect them environmentally. What did you see in northern France?Samuel George: Point, and that gets back to this extractive cycle that we've seen before. Okay, so northern France, this is a story a lot of us will know well because it's similar to what we've see in the Rust Belt in the United States. This is an industrial zone, historically, that faced significant deindustrialization in recent decades and now has massive problems with unemployment and lack of job opportunities, as one of the guys says in the film. Nothing's open here anymore except for that cafe over there and that's just because it has gambling guy. I couldn't have said it any better. This EV transition is offering an opportunity to bring back industrial jobs to whether it's Northern France or the United States of America. So that is an opportunity for people to have these more advanced battery-oriented jobs. So that could be building the battery itself. That could be an auto manufacturing plant where you're making EV electric vehicles. So there is job creation that's happening. And that's further along the development stage and kind of higher level jobs. And we meet students in France that are saying, look, this is an opportunity for a career. We see a long-term opportunity for work here. So we're really studying batteries and that's for university students. That's for people maybe 10, 15 years older to kind of go back to school and learn some skills related to batteries. So there is job creation to that. And you might, you may be getting ready to get to this, but where the real silver lining I think comes after that, where we go back to Georgia in the United States and visit a battery recycling plant.Andrew Keen: Right, yeah, those two sections in the movie kind of go together in a sense.Samuel George: Right, they do. And that is, I think, the silver lining here is that these batteries that we use in all of these appliances and devices and gadgets can be recycled in such a way that the cobalt, the lithium, the nickel can be extracted. And it itself hasn't degraded. It's sort of funny for us to think about, because we buy a phone. And three years later, the battery is half as good as it used to be and we figure well, materials in it must be degrading. They're not. The battery is degrading, the materials are fine. So then the idea is if we can get enough of this in the United States, if we can get old phones and old car batteries and old laptops that we can pull those minerals out, maybe we can have a closed loop, which is sort of a way of saying we won't need those mines anymore. We won't have to dig it up. We don't need to compete with China for access to from Bolivia or Chile because we'll have that lithium here. And yes, that's a silver lining, but there's challenges there. The two key challenges your viewers should be aware of is one, it's all about costs and they've proven that they can recycle these materials, but can they do it in a way that's cheaper than importing new lithium? And that's what these different companies are racing to find a way to say, look, we can do this at a way that's cost effective. Then even if you get through that challenge, a second one is just to have the sheer amount of the materials to close that loop, to have enough in the United States already, they estimate we're decades away from that. So those are the two key challenges to the silver lining of recycling, but it is possible. It can be done and they're doing it.Andrew Keen: We haven't talked about the T word, Sam. It's on everyone's lips these days, tariffs. How does this play out? I mean, especially given this growing explicit, aggressive trade war between the United States and China, particularly when it comes to production of iPhones and other battery-driven products. Right. Is tariffs, I mean, you film this really before Trump 2-0, in which tariffs were less central, but is tariffs going to change everything?Samuel George: I mean, this is just like so many other things, an incredibly globalized ecosystem and tariffs. And who even knows by the time this comes out, whatever we think we understand about the new tariff scenario could be completely outdated.Andrew Keen: Guaranteed. I mean, we are talking on Wednesday, April the 9th. This will go out in a few days time. But no doubt by that time, tariffs will have changed dramatically. They already have as we speak.Samuel George: Here's the bottom line, and this is part of the reason the story is so important and so timely, and we haven't even talked about this yet, but it's so critical. Okay, just like oil, you can't just dig oil out of the ground and put it in the car. It's got to be refined. Lithium, nickel, cobalt, it's got be refined as well. And the overwhelming majority of that refining occurs in China. So even your success story like France, where they're building batteries, they still need to import the refined critical minerals from China. So that is a massive vulnerability. And that's part of where this real fear that you see in Washington or Brussels is coming from. You know, and they got their first little taste of it during the COVID supply chain meltdown, but say in the event where China decided that they weren't gonna export any more of this refined material it would be disastrous for people relying on lithium devices, which by the way, is also the military. Increasingly, the military is using lithium battery powered devices. So that's why there's this urgency that we need to get this on shore. We need to this supply chain here. The problem is that's not happening yet. And okay, so you can slap these tariffs on and that's going to make this stuff much more expensive, but that's not going to automatically create a critical mineral refining capacity in the United States of America. So that needs to be built. So you can understand the desire to get this back here. And by the way, the only reason we're not all driving Chinese made electric vehicles is because of tariffs. The Chinese have really, really caught up in terms of high quality electric vehicles at excellent prices. Now, the prices were always good. What's surprising people recently is the quality is there, but they've basically been tariffed out of the United States. And actually the Biden administration was in part behind that. And it was sort of this tension because on the one hand, they were saying, we want a green revolution, we want to green revolution. But on the other hand, they were seeing these quality Chinese electric vehicles. We're not gonna let you bring them in. But yeah, so I mean, I think the ultimate goal, you can understand why a country that's convinced that it's in a long term competition with China would say we can't rely on Chinese refined materials. Slapping a tariff on it isn't any sort of comprehensive strategy and to me it almost seems like you're putting the horse before the cart because we're not really in a place yet where we can say we no longer need China to power our iPhone.Andrew Keen: And one of the nice things about your movie is it features miners, ordinary people living on the land whose lives are dramatically impacted by this. So one would imagine that some of the people you interviewed in Bolivia or Atacama or in Africa or even in Georgia and certainly in Nevada, they're going to be dramatically impacted by the tariffs. These are not just abstract ideas that have a real impact on people's lives.Samuel George: Absolutely. I mean, for decades now, we've built an economic system that's based on globalization. And it's certainly true that that's cost a lot of jobs in the United States. It's also true that there's a lot jobs and companies that have been built around global trade. And this is one of them. And you're talking about significant disruption if your global supply chains, as we've seen before, again, in the COVID crisis when the supply chains fall apart or when the margins, which are already pretty slim to begin with, start to degrade, yeah, it's a major problem.Andrew Keen: Poorly paid in the first place, so...Samuel George: For the most part, yeah.Andrew Keen: Well, we're not talking about dinging Elon Musk. Tell us a little bit, Sam, about how you made this movie. You are a defiantly independent filmmaker, one of the more impressive that I know. You literally carry two large cameras around the world. You don't have a team, you don't have an audio guy, you don't ever sound guy. You do it all on your own. It's quite impressive. Been you shlep these cameras to Latin America, to Southeast Asia, obviously all around America. You commissioned work in Africa. How did you make this film? It's quite an impressive endeavor.Samuel George: Well, first of all, I really appreciate your kind words, but I can't completely accept this idea that I do it all alone. You know, I'm speaking to you now from the Bertelsmann Foundation. I'm the director of Bertelsman Foundation documentaries. And we've just had this fantastic support here and this idea that we can go to the front line and get these stories. And I would encourage people to check out Bertelsmen Foundation documentation.Andrew Keen: And we should have a special shout out to your boss, my friend, Irene Brahm, who runs the BuzzFeed Foundation of North America, who's been right from the beginning, a champion of video making.Samuel George: Oh, absolutely. I mean, Irene Brahm has been a visionary in terms of, you know, something I think that we align on is you take these incredibly interesting issues and somehow analysts manage to make them extraordinarily boring. And Irene had this vision that maybe it doesn't have to be that way.Andrew Keen: She's blushing now as she's watching this, but I don't mean to make you blush, Sam, but these are pretty independent movies. You went around the world, you've done it before, you did it in the Serbian movie too. You're carrying these cameras around, you're doing all your own work, it's quite an achievement.Samuel George: Well, again, I'm very, very thankful for the Bertelsmann Foundation. I think a lot of times, sometimes people, when they hear a foundation or something is behind something, they assume that somebody's got an ax to grind, and that's really not the case here. The Bertelsman Foundation is very supportive of just investigating these key issues, and let's have an honest conversation about it. And maybe it's a cop-out, but in my work, I often don't try to provide a solution.Andrew Keen: Have you had, when we did our event in D.C., you had a woman, a Chinese-born woman who's an expert on this. I don't think she's particularly welcome back on the mainland now. Has there been a Chinese response? Because I would say it's an anti-Chinese movie, but it's not particularly sympathetic or friendly towards China.Samuel George: And I can answer that question because it was the exact same issue we ran into when we filmed Tinder Box Belt and Road, which was again about Chinese investment in the Balkans. And your answer is has there been a Chinese reaction and no sort of official reaction. We always have people sort of from the embassy or various affiliated organizations that like to come to the events when we screen it. And they're very welcome to. But here's a point that I want to get across. Chinese officials and people related to China on these issues are generally uniformly unwilling to participate. And I think that's a poor decision on their part because I think there's a lot they could say to defend themselves. They could say, hey, you guys do this too. They could say, we're providing infrastructure to critical parts of the world. They could said, hey we're way ahead of you guys, but it's not because we did anything wrong. We just saw this was important before you did and built the network. There are many ways they could defend themselves. But rather than do that, they're extremely tight-lipped about what they're doing. And that can, if you're not, and we try our best, you know, we have certain experts from China that when they'll talk, we'll interview them. But that kind of tight-lip approach almost makes it seem like something even more suspicious is happening. Cause you just have to guess what the mindset must be cause they won't explain themselves. And I think Chinese representatives could do far more and it's not just about you know my documentary I understand they have bigger fish to fry but I feel like they fry the fish the same way when they're dealing with bigger entities I think it's to their detriment that they're not more open in engaging a global conversation because look China is gonna be an incredibly impactful part of world dynamics moving forward and they need to be, they need to engage on what they're doing. I think, and I do think they have a story they can tell to defend themselves, and it's unfortunate that they very much don't do it.Andrew Keen: In our DC event, you also had a woman who'd worked within the Biden administration. Has there been a big shift between Biden policy on recycling, recyclable energy and Trump 2.0? It's still the early days of the new administration.Samuel George: Right. And we're trying to get a grip on that of what the difference is going to be. I can tell you this, the Biden approach was very much the historic approach of the United States of America, which is to try to go to a country like Congo and say, look, we're not going to give you money without transparency. We're not gonna give you this big, you know, beautiful deal. We're going to the cheapest to build this or the cheapest build that. But what we can compete with you is on quality and sustainability and improved work conditions. This used to be the United States pitch. And as we've seen in places like Serbia, that's not always the greatest pitch in the world. Oftentimes these countries are more interested in the money without questions being asked. But the United states under the Biden administration tried to compete on quality. Now we will have to see if that continues with the Trump administration, if that continuous to be their pitch. What we've see in the early days is this sort of hardball tactic. I mean, what else can you refer to what's happening with Ukraine, where they say, look, if you want continued military support, we want those minerals. And other countries say, well, maybe that could work for us too. I mean that's sort of, as I understand it, the DRC, which is under, you know, there's new competition there for power that the existing government is saying, hey, United States, if you could please help us, we'll be sure to give you this heaping of minerals. We can say this, the new administration does seem to be taking the need for critical minerals seriously, which I think was an open question because we see so much of the kind of green environmentalism being rolled back. It does still seem to be a priority with the new administration and there does seem to be clarity that the United States is going to have to improve its position regarding these minerals.Andrew Keen: Yeah, I'm guessing Elon Musk sees this as well as anyone, and I'm sure he's quite influential. Finally, Sam, in contrast with a book, which gets distributed and put in bookstores, doing a movie is much more challenging. What's the goal with the movie? You've done a number of launches around the world, screenings in Berlin, Munich, London, Washington D.C. you did run in San Francisco last week. What's the business model, so to speak here? Are you trying to get distribution or do you wanna work with schools or other authorities to show the film?Samuel George: Right, I mean, I appreciate that question. The business model is simple. We just want you to watch. You know, our content is always free. Our films are always free, you can go to bfnadox.org for our catalog. This film is not online yet. You don't need a password, you don't a username, you can just watch our movies, that's what we want. And of course, we're always on the lookout for increased opportunities to spread these. And so we worked on a number of films. We've got PBS to syndicate them nationally. We got one you can check your local listings about a four-month steel workers strike in western Pennsylvania. It's called Local 1196. That just started its national syndication on PBS. So check out for that one. But look, our goal is for folks to watch these. We're looking for the most exposure as we can and we're giving it away for free.Andrew Keen: Just to repeat, if people are interested, that's bfna.docs.org to find more movies. And finally, Sam, for people who are interested perhaps in doing a showing of the film, I know you've worked with a number of universities and interest groups. What would be the best way to approach you.Samuel George: Well, like you say, we're a small team here. You can always feel free to reach out to me. And I don't know if I should pitch my email.Andrew Keen: Yeah, picture email. Give it out. The Chinese will be getting it too. You'll be getting lots of invitations from China probably to show the film.Samuel George: We'd love to come talk about it. That's all we want to do. And we try, but we'd love to talk about it. I think it's fundamental to have that conversation. So the email is just Samuel.George, just as you see it written there, at BFN as in boy, F as in Frank, N as in Nancy, A. Let's make it clearer - Samuel.George@bfna.org. We work with all sorts of organizations on screenings.Andrew Keen: And what about the aspiring filmmakers, as you're the head of documentaries there? Do you work with aspiring documentary filmmakers?Samuel George: Yes, yes, we do often on projects. So if I'm working on a project. So you mentioned that I work by myself, and that is how I learned this industry, you know, is doing it by myself. But increasingly, we're bringing in other skilled people on projects that we're working on. So we don't necessarily outsource entire projects. But we're always looking for opportunities to collaborate. We're looking to bring in talent. And we're looking to make the best products we can on issues that we think are fundamental importance to the Atlantic community. So we love being in touch with filmmakers. We have internship programs. We're open for nonprofit business, I guess you could say.Andrew Keen: Well, that's good stuff. The new movie is called Lithium Rising, The Race for Critical Minerals. I moderated a panel after the North American premiere at the end of February. It's a really interesting, beautifully made film, very compelling. It is only 60 minutes. I strongly advise anyone who has the opportunity to watch it and to contact Sam if they want to put it on their school, a university or other institution. Congratulations Sam on the movie. What's the next project?Samuel George: Next project, we've started working on a project about Southern Louisiana. And in there, we're really looking at the impact of land loss on the bayous and the local shrimpers and crabbers and Cajun community, as well as of course This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit keenon.substack.com/subscribe

Steubenville is a standout when it comes to third grade reading proficiency.

 We caught up with Rita Bliss while she was working hard in Dallas! We chatted about her recent release “Peaches and Apple Pies,” her monthly residency at Batch Brewing and Kolaches in Austin, TX and finding family at ‘the best bar in Texas.'   Rita Bliss is a folk musician from Rochester, New York and is now based in Austin Texas. Though a Rust Belt native, Rita's melodies are rooted in familiar old-time banjo sounds that evoke travels along the backroads of the South. Influenced by John Prine, Joni Mitchell, and Nanci Griffith,Rita's songwriting weaves together timeless love stories with long drives, porch gatherings, and letters between loved ones. The love stories are unabashedly queer, the porch gatherings are sometimes rowdy, and the conversations often touch on true-to-life mental health challenges.  Check Rita out here:  Website: Ritabliss.com  Patreon: Rita Bliss  IG: ritablissbanjo  YouTube: Rita Bliss Banjo  Facebook: Rita Bliss Music  

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found Click On Picture To See Larger PictureA major backer of green energy admits it would be able to keep the lights on. Lee Zeldin cuts regulations. Tariffs are a good thing, it will change everything. Companies are coming back to the US. Israel removes all tariffs. The [DS] is pushing everything they have at Trump, they have all judges trying to dictate how the executive branch should be run. The people are getting a lesson in the Constitution. The [DS] tried to cover up their crimes by deleting data. The coverup always gets you. Elon signals that arrests are coming.   (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:13499335648425062,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-7164-1323"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="//cdn2.customads.co/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); Economy A Major Backer Of Green Energy Admits Again That Solar And Wind Power Alone ‘Can't Reliably Keep The Lights On' BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, historically a supporter of green energy initiatives, acknowledged that wind and solar alone “can't reliably keep the lights on” without “major breakthroughs in storage” and wrote that it's necessary to be “clear-eyed about our energy mix” in his annual chairman's letter to investors on Monday. Fink supported the transition to green energy in the past and heads BlackRock, the world's largest asset management company, which has pushed for Environmental, Social and Corporate Governance (ESG). Fink said in 2023 that he would no longer use the term ESG due to its political connotation, though he's “not ashamed” of the term and believes in “conscious capitalism.” Fink praised nuclear power and raised doubts Monday regarding the reliability of solar and wind energy alone due to storage issues in his annual chairman's letter. Source; dailycaller.com  Congressman says Trump's rare earth minerals plans could spur manufacturing boom in Rust Belt In 2023, China accounted for nearly 70 percent of global production of strategic minerals. Its share has increased after reaching a low at 57.6 percent in 2020. "And here's the reason why it's so important that we mine them, because you're going to almost certainly have your manufacturing close to where you find the natural resource," Tiffany says. Congressman Tom Tiffany, R-Wis., predicted that President Trump's plans on rare earth minerals could spur a manufacturing boom in the Rust Belt, referring to last week's joint session of Congress on Tuesday. At that speech, Trump said “Later this week, I will also take historic action to dramatically expand production of critical minerals and rare earths here in the USA.” Trump is reportedly preparing an executive order that would speed up raw mineral production and processing. Tiffany, a member of the Committee on Natural Resources and chairman of its Subcommittee on Federal Lands, said Trump's executive action will be a game changer for the U.S. Source: justthenews.com https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1906763321610502534   $9,191. This was followed by New Jersey, Florida, and Alaska at $9,112, $9,094, and $9,094. Furthermore, Wyoming has the fastest-growing card debt levels which rose 8.9% in Q3 2024. Meanwhile, total credit card debt has risen by $441 billion since Q1 2021 and hit a record $1.2 trillion in Q4 2024, according the NY Fed. Credit card debt is out of control. https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1906738279619145800  next. World's Largest Oil Refining Company Halts Venezuelan Oil Purchases Following President Trump Tariff Announcement Last week President Trump announced secondary tariffs of 25% against any nation who purchases oil from Venezuela.  The approach was in response to the Venezuelan government refusing repatriation o...

Patrick Bet-David explains how Nixon's 1972 visit to China and China's 2001 entry into the WTO triggered the loss of millions of U.S. manufacturing jobs. From cheap labor costs driving outsourcing to the devastation of states like Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, this video explores the economic fallout on Middle America, the rise of the Rust Belt, and how tariffs are now bringing jobs back. Hit thumbs up and subscribe for more!---

Don't get to the end of this year wishing you had taken action to change your business and your life.Click here to schedule a free discovery call for your business: https://geni.us/IFORABEShop-Ware gives you the tools to provide your shop with everything needed to become optimally profitable.Click here to schedule a free demo: https://info.shop-ware.com/profitabilityUtilize the fastest and easiest way to look up and order parts and tires with PartsTech absolutely free.Click here to get started: https://geni.us/PartsTechTransform your shop's marketing with the best in the automotive industry, Shop Marketing Pros!Get a free audit of your shop's current marketing by clicking here: https://geni.us/ShopMarketingPros In this episode of Changing The Industry Podcast, Lucas and David welcome Brandon Crusha of AutoText.me. Brandon shares his extensive background in the industry, emphasizing the crucial role of communication and digital inspections in auto shops. The conversation also explores a debate with a fellow shop owner regarding the ethics and perceptions of high repair quotes, highlighting the importance of transparently presenting all findings to customers. Additionally, David and Lucas passionately discuss healthcare parallels, stressing the significance of comprehensive checks and open communication.00:00 Switching Dilemma and Solutions07:40 Comprehensive Car Inspection Importance10:50 Exorbitant Service Costs Criticized20:40 "Medical Procedure Discussion"21:29 Jaundice Incident: Lack of Advocacy27:21 Dealer Mentality: Cutting Loose Technicians36:29 Rant on Air Filter Costs39:53 "Achieving Revenue with MAP Standards"44:26 "Automated Client Follow-up Strategy"48:27 "Dirty Mike's Funniest Clip"55:57 Unexpected Emotional Reaction Test01:02:38 Outdated Treatment Shortened Her Life01:06:42 Affordable Direct Lab Testing Service

In this episode of Bring the Pain, Jason is back from Next Level Gaming to talk about the upcoming Rust Belt Showdown 3. At first, we catch up and talk about how life has been to us before we catch everyone up on what types of services Jason offers with Next Level Gaming. From birthday parties to weddings, Jason and his team have experienced a plethora of different events that always leave his customers satisfied. That satisfaction is then returned through Jason's bread and butter, the Rust Belt Showdown 3. With only weeks left until April 26th, Jason is ready to put on his biggest event to date, and I'll be there to experience it with him. I can't wait to talk to everyone as I become part of the crowd looking for interviews and any gaming story you may want to tell. Have a great day, everyone, and may the next level be with you. Thank you for the support and contributions all of you make for my podcasts and articles each week. Y'all the real #Painbringers! Follow Jason and Next Level Gaming at... *Facebookhttps://www.facebook.com/bookN... *Website linkhttps://booknextlevelgaming.co... *Rust Belt Showdown Pt. 3 Websitehttps://www.start.gg/tournamen... Follow me at.... *Facebookhttps://www.facebook.com/Bring... *Twitterhttps://twitter.com/HeatOverid... *Spreakerhttps://spreaker.page.link/VS5... *Dr Roto Sports Websitehttps://drroto.com/author/robe... *You Tubehttps://youtube.com/@Heat00veride05?si=cVb49FjQD-Y6fKjTBecome a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/bring-the-pain--3659369/support.

Jack Zwart, known as Rust Belt Kid, is a regenerative farmer with deep roots in the industrial heartland. We talked about his journey returning to farming, the intersection of manufacturing and agriculture, and his passion for regenerative practices. It was inspiring to discuss how personal and regional histories shape our relationship with farming and the land.Rust Belt Kid on X 

This episode of Across The Margin : The Podcast features an interview with Erin Osmon, an award-winning, Los Angeles-based music journalist, critic, and author. She's written long-form album notes for archival releases on Blondie, Hüsker Dü, Townes Van Zandt, Sparklehorse, and many others. A veteran of Chicago newsrooms, her work appears in Rolling Stone, LA Times, New York Times, Washington Post, and other publications of record. She is part-time faculty at USC's Annenberg School of journalism. Her new book, about heartland rock in the 1980s, will be published by W.W. Norton in 2026. Her first book, Jason Molina: Riding with the Ghost — the focus of this episode — was published in 2017 and named a Best Music Book of the year by Pitchfork. Her book about John Prine's landmark debut album was published by Bloomsbury's 33 1/3 series. In Jason Molina: Riding with the Ghost, Erin presents a detailed, human account of the Rust Belt–born musician Jason Molina — a visionary, prolific, and at times cantankerous singer-songwriter with an autodidactic style that captivated his devoted fans. It details Molina's personal trials and triumphs and reveals for the first time the true story of his last months and works. Offering unfettered access to the mind and artistry of Molina through exclusive interviews with family, friends, and collaborators, the book also explores the Midwest music underground and the development of Bloomington, Indiana–based label Secretly Canadian. As the first authorized and detailed account of this prolific songwriter and self-mythologizer, Riding with the Ghost provides readers with unparalleled insight into Molina's tormented life and the fascinating Midwest musical underground that birthed him. In this episode host Michael Shields and Erin Osmon discuss how Molina's deep ties and affinity to the state that birthed him (Ohio) shaped his life and influenced his career. They explore Molina's surprising and varied musical influences, the comparison to singer-songwriter Will Oldham which shadowed Molina throughout his career, the birth of the timeless classic album that is Magnolia Electric Co., and so much more. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

On this week's Episode of Grease the Wheels, Uncle Jimmy takes a look at some of the real world ramifications of Texas discontinuing their state vehicle safety inspections. The first thing that stood out to us was that it was in fact similar to those in New York, and in fact throughout most of the Rust Belt where we know they are a really good idea. Entropy is the name of the game here, and if something is too rotten to be safe, or tires are too bald to provide adequate traction — they need to go. We also get into some of the socioeconomics of the state safety inspection, and how this has altered our own perceptions of this subject over time. When we we're young and broke, we hated it! When we had seen some stuff and learned some stuff, we we're a lot more understanding of why they are important. Bottom line, relying on the common sense of vehicle owners is, really without a doubt, one of the worst parameters we have ever seen. We have seen the “common sense” of vehicle owners and it usually ends up on “Just Rolled In” Also Uncle Jimmy talks his favorite ways of evading(and altering) police attention while having an out of date inspections!

For decades, unions were more than just labor organizations—they were community anchors that shaped working-class identity and political loyalty. But what happens when an entire generation loses its economic and social foundation? The Rust Belt's working-class voters were once a Democratic stronghold, but that's no longer the case. Lainey Newman, co-author of Rust Belt Union Blues, joins Paul  and Goldy this week to explain how the erosion of union power helped shift working-class voters away from Democrats, and why economic fixes alone won't be enough to win them back. Lainey Newman is an author and J.D. candidate at Harvard Law School. She is a graduate of Harvard College and a native of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Social Media: @laineynewman.bsky.social laineynewman @LaineyNewman Further reading:  Rust Belt Union Blues: Why Working-Class Voters Are Turning Away from the Democratic Party Website: http://pitchforkeconomics.com Instagram: @pitchforkeconomics Threads: pitchforkeconomics Bluesky: @pitchforkeconomics.bsky.social Twitter: @PitchforkEcon, @NickHanauer, @civicaction YouTube: @pitchforkeconomics LinkedIn: Pitchfork Economics Substack: The Pitch

Please enjoy this re-airing of May 2022's interview with Zoe Apisdorf, Director of Residential Experience at Rust Belt Riders, who talks about their partnership with the City of Avon Lake in offering residents a drop-off compost service. Upcoming events happening in Avon Lake: March 17: Collective Committee Meeting March 20, 7:00 PM: "Tragedy and Triumph: Ray Chapman and the 1920 Cleveland Indians" at the Avon Lake Public Library March 24, 7:00 PM: City Council Meeting March 25, 5:30 PM: Ward 1 Resident Meeting with Councilman Rob Shahmir at the Avon Lake Public Library March 26, 6:30 PM: "Jimmy Buffett: The Stories Behind the Songs" at the Avon Lake Public Library For information about these and future events/meetings in Avon Lake, please visit www.AvonLake.org/Events.

America's pastime has long been more than just a game - it's a reflection of the country itself. But what happens when the heart and soul of small-town baseball is threatened by the forces of modern sports economics?  We sit down with New York Times-bestselling author ("The Prisoner in His Palace") and former Army Ranger Will Bardenwerper to discuss his new book "Homestand: Small Town Baseball and the Fight for the Soul of America" - a poignant memoir that explores the fate of minor league baseball in Batavia, New York, and what it reveals about the state of America today. Bardenwerper takes us behind the scenes of a declining Rust Belt town's fight to keep its baseball tradition alive after Major League Baseball's contraction of Batavia's beloved Muckdogs (née Clippers, Pirates, Trojans & Indians) - along with its history-laden circuit, the Class-A New York-Penn League - in 2020.  Through rich storytelling and a cast of unforgettable characters, Bardenwerper paints a picture of resilience, community, and the enduring magic of the game. As Batavia fights to keep baseball alive, Homestand captures not just the town's defiance in the face of MLB's power grab, but also the broader struggles of small-town America against economic forces beyond its control.   We also explore Bardenwerper's unique perspective as a veteran, journalist, and author - connecting themes of war, political division, and the still uniquely unifying power of a simple summer night at the ballpark.   + + +   SUPPORT THE SHOW: Buy Us a Coffee: https://ko-fi.com/goodseatsstillavailable "Good Seats" Merch: https://www.teepublic.com/?ref_id=35106 SPONSOR THANKS (AND SUPPORT THE SHOW!): Old School Shirts.com (10% off promo code: GOODSEATS) https://oldschoolshirts.com/goodseats Royal Retros (10% off promo code: SEATS): https://www.503-sports.com?aff=2 BUY THE BOOK (AND SUPPORT THE SHOW!): "Homestand: Small Town Baseball and the Fight for the Soul of America": https://amzn.to/4iCbYeQ FIND AND FOLLOW: Website: https://goodseatsstillavailable.com/ Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/goodseatsstillavailable.com X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/GoodSeatsStill YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@goodseatsstillavailable Threads: https://www.threads.net/@goodseatsstillavailable Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/goodseatsstillavailable/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/GoodSeatsStillAvailable/

Welcome to the daily304 – your window into Wonderful, Almost Heaven, West Virginia.   Today is Saturday, March 1, 2025. Weirton's Form Factory 1 serves as a bold illustration of today's manufacturing renaissance…there's still time to get in that snow tubing adventure before spring arrives…and the Putnam Chamber's Comeback Club is helping women who have taken career breaks reintegrate into the workforce…on today's daily304. #1 – From FORM ENERGY – Located in Weirton, West Virginia, Form Factory 1 is Form Energy's first high-volume battery manufacturing facility — and a bold illustration of today's American manufacturing renaissance. This 550,000-square-foot facility demonstrates that large-scale, advanced manufacturing can be achieved rapidly and at high volumes right here in the U.S. Currently employing over 300 people, Form Factory 1 is spearheading a new era of energy manufacturing in the Rust Belt. By 2028, it will expand to around 850,000 square feet, support more than 750 employees, and have a production capacity of at least 500 megawatts of batteries per year. Learn more: https://formenergy.com/form-factory-1/   #2 – From WV TOURISM – With rolling hills galore and resorts that make them more accessible, Almost Heaven is a bonafide snow tubing destination. There is no better time to take a ride on a snow tube and blaze down a huge hill over and over again! Even though spring is approaching, most resorts are open until mid-March. Treat your family to an adventure filled with powdery snow and speed on these legendary West Virginia hills.  You'll find amazing tubing adventures at Canaan Valley Resort State Park, Winterplace Ski Resort Snowshoe Mountain, and at West Virginia's newest winter park, Snow Riders in Harpers Ferry. Read more: https://wvtourism.com/take-your-family-on-a-snow-tubing-adventure-in-west-virginia/?utm_campaign=ConsumerNewsletter2024&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz--s_yM7pD5GECHe0g8eEwDoPAEfFOU78uMpUV8fcIVh5wdEIoMj9okKHR-XMuUxzsjJo1r3PhU3CxcGrJAFHHxDAduA9G5QyBOP9KCFiTDzLNeIUpU&_hsmi=348017731&utm_content=347823052&utm_source=hs_email   #3 – From PUTNAM COUNTY CHAMBER – The Comeback Club envisions a future where women who have taken career breaks can seamlessly reintegrate into the workforce.  An initiative of the Putnam County Chamber of Commerce, the club offers a variety of resources for women, including career resilience workshops, mentorship programs, job placement assistance and community support through meetups and networking events. To become a client or mentor, visit putnamchamber.org. Learn more: https://putnamchamber.org/comeback-club/   Find these stories and more at wv.gov/daily304. The daily304 curated news and information is brought to you by the West Virginia Department of Commerce: Sharing the wealth, beauty and opportunity in West Virginia with the world. Follow the daily304 on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram @daily304. Or find us online at wv.gov and just click the daily304 logo.  That's all for now. Take care. Be safe. Get outside and enjoy all the opportunity West Virginia has to offer.  

Also, that painting is *probably* in that museum but it's been stolen so many times that who really knows for sure?

There's a school district in eastern Ohio where virtually all the students become good readers by the time they finish third grade. Many of the wealthiest places in the country can't even say that. And Steubenville is a Rust Belt town where the state considers almost all the students “economically disadvantaged.” How did they do it?Explore: Steubenville, by the numbers Read: Transcript of this episode From Karin Chenoweth Book: Districts that Succeed Book: How It's Being Done Podcast: ExtraOrdinary Districts Donate: Support our journalism More: soldastory.org  Email us: soldastory@apmreports.org  Dive deeper into Sold a Story with a multi-part email series from host Emily Hanford. We'll also keep you up to date on new episodes. Sign up at soldastory.org/extracredit. 

Ahoy, cruisers! This week, Mongo and Emily are joined by their good friend and travel buddy, Brian from The Undone, the band behind all the music for Cruising With Kayfabe! Together, we dive into our unforgettable experience on the 6th Jericho Cruise: Six on the Beach, sharing wild stories, epic wrestling moments, and the best parts of life at sea with fellow fans. From killer matches to unforgettable concerts, we break down everything that made this cruise one for the books. So grab a drink, kick back, and set sail with us for another fun-filled episode!Listen now on Spotify, Apple, Amazon, and YouTube!For a full episode archive (AD FREE) and exclusive content visit CWKPOD.COMMake sure and follow the show and leave us a 5 Star Frog Splash of a review!Be sure to Follow us on all of our socials @CruisingwithKayfabe on Facebook and Instagram, @ItsMongo and @CruisingWithKayfabe_Emily on TikTok. Visit Dubby Energy at https://www.dubby.gg/discount/Mongo?ref=TokPgWhTYa3YrX and use promo code "MONGO" to save 10% on all orders all the time!Special Thanks to friends of the show the Undone for letting us use their song Miss Fortune! Now available to stream or purchase on Apple, Amazon Music & Spotify.  For more information visit https://wearetheundone.com/ and make sure to give them a follow!

How historic are Trump 2.0's first few weeks? For the veteran correspondent, Nick Bryant, the longtime BBC man in Washington DC, what the Trump regime has done in the first few weeks of his second administration is as historic as the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. It's the end of the America we haver known for the last seventy years, he says. Bryant describes Trump's rapprochement with Russia as Neville Chamberlain style appeasement and notes the dramatic shifts in U.S. foreign policy, particularly regarding Ukraine and European allies. He sees Trump's actions as revealing rather than changing America's true nature. Bryant also discusses the failures of the Dems, the role of Elon Musk in the administration, and structural changes to federal institutions. Despite all the upheaval, Bryant suggests this isn't so much "goodbye to America" as a revelation of the cynically isolationist forces that were always present in American society.Here are the five KEEN ON takeaways from our conversation with Nick Bryant:* Historic Transformation: Bryant sees Trump's second term as a pivotal moment in world history, comparable to the fall of the Berlin Wall, with rapid changes in global alliances and particularly in America's relationship with Russia, which he characterizes as "appeasement."* Democratic Party Crisis: He analyzes how the Democrats' failures stemmed from multiple factors - Biden's delayed exit, Kamala Harris's weak candidacy, and the lack of time to find a stronger replacement. While Trump's victory was significant, Bryant notes it wasn't a landslide.* Elon Musk's Unexpected Role: An unforeseen development Bryant didn't predict in his book was Musk's prominent position in Trump's second administration, describing it as almost a "co-presidency" following Trump's assassination attempt and Musk's subsequent endorsement of Trump.* Federal Government Transformation: Bryant observes that Trump's dismantling of federal institutions goes beyond typical Republican small-government approaches, potentially removing not just bureaucratic waste but crucial expertise and institutional knowledge.* Trump as Revealer, Not Changer: Perhaps most significantly, Bryant argues that Trump hasn't changed America but rather revealed its true nature - arguing that authoritarianism, political violence, and distrust of big government have always been present in American history. FULL TRANSCRIPT Andrew Keen: Hello, everybody. About eight months ago, we had a great show with the BBC's former Washington correspondent, Nick Bryant. His latest book, "The Forever War: America's Unending Conflict with Itself," predicted much of what's happening in the United States now. When you look at the headlines this week about the U.S.-Russia relationship changing in a head-spinning way, apparently laying the groundwork for ending the Ukrainian war, all sorts of different relations and tariffs and many other things in this new regime. Nick is joining us from Sydney, Australia, where he now lives. Nick, do you miss America?Nick Bryant: I covered the first Trump administration and it felt like a 25/8 job, not just 24/7. Trump 2.0 feels even more relentless—round-the-clock news forever. We're checking our phones to see what has happened next. People who read my book wouldn't be surprised by how Donald Trump is conducting his second term. But some things weren't on my bingo card, like Trump suggesting a U.S. takeover of Gaza. The rapprochement with Putin, which we should look on as an act of appeasement after his aggression in Ukraine, was very easy to predict.Andrew Keen: That's quite a sharp comment, Nick—an act of appeasement equivalent to Neville Chamberlain's umbrella.Nick Bryant: It was ironic that J.D. Vance made his speech at the Munich Security Conference. Munich was where Neville Chamberlain secured the Munich Agreement, which was seen as a terrible act of appeasement towards Nazi Germany. This moment feels historic—I would liken it to the fall of the Berlin Wall. We're seeing a complete upending of the world order.Back at the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, we were talking about the end of history—Francis Fukuyama's famous thesis suggesting the triumph of liberal democracy. Now, we're talking about the end of America as we've known it since World War II. You get these Berlin Wall moments like Trump saying there should be a U.S. takeover of Gaza. J.D. Vance's speech in Munich ruptures the transatlantic alliance, which has been the basis of America's global preeminence and European security since World War II.Then you've seen what's happened in Saudi Arabia with the meeting between the Russians and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, completely resetting relations between Washington and Moscow. It's almost as if the invasions of Ukraine never happened. We're back to the situation during the Bush administration when George W. Bush famously met Vladimir Putin, looked into his soul, and gave him a clean bill of health. Things are moving at a hurtling pace, and it seems we're seeing the equivalent of a Berlin Wall tumbling every couple of days.Andrew Keen: That's quite dramatic for an experienced journalist like yourself to say. You don't exaggerate unnecessarily, Nick. It's astonishing. Nobody predicted this.Nick Bryant: When I first said this about three weeks ago, I had to think long and hard about whether the historical moments were equivalent. Two weeks on, I've got absolutely no doubt. We're seeing a massive change. European allies of America are now not only questioning whether the United States is a reliable ally—they're questioning whether the United States is an ally at all. Some are even raising the possibility that nations like Germany, the UK, and France will soon look upon America as an adversary.J.D. Vance's speech was very pointed, attacking European elitism and what he saw as denial of freedom of speech in Europe by governments, but not having a single word of criticism for Vladimir Putin. People are listening to the U.S. president, vice president, and others like Marco Rubio with their jaws on the ground. It's a very worrying moment for America's allies because they cannot look across the Atlantic anymore and see a president who will support them. Instead, they see an administration aligning itself with hard-right and far-right populist movements.Andrew Keen: The subtitle of your book was "America's Unending Conflict with Itself: The History Behind Trump in Advance." But America now—and I'm talking to you from San Francisco, where obviously there aren't a lot of Trump fans or J.D. Vance fans—seems in an odd, almost surreal way to be united. There were protests on Presidents Day earlier this week against Trump, calling him a tyrant. But is the thesis of your book about the forever war, America continually being divided between coastal elites and the hinterlands, Republicans and Democrats, still manifesting itself in late February 2025?Nick Bryant: Trump didn't win a landslide victory in the election. He won a significant victory, a decisive victory. It was hugely significant that he won the popular vote, which he didn't manage to do in 2016. But it wasn't a big win—he didn't win 50% of the popular vote. Sure, he won the seven battleground states, giving the sense of a massive victory, but it wasn't massive numerically.The divides in America are still there. The opposition has melted away at the moment with sporadic protests, but nothing really major. Don't be fooled into thinking America's forever wars have suddenly ended and Trump has won. The opposition will be back. The resistance will be back.I remember moments in the Obama administration when it looked like progressives had won every battle in America. I remember the day I went to South Carolina, to the funeral of the pastor killed in that terrible shooting in Charleston. Obama broke into "Amazing Grace"—it was almost for the first time in front of a black audience that he fully embraced the mantle of America's first African-American president. He flew back to Washington that night, and the White House was bathed in rainbow colors because the Supreme Court had made same-sex marriage legal across the country.It seemed in that moment that progressives were winning every fight. The Supreme Court also upheld the constitutionality of Obamacare. You assumed America's first black president would be followed by America's first female president. But what we were seeing in that summer of 2015 was actually the conservative backlash. Trump literally announced his presidential bid the day before that awful Charleston shooting. You can easily misread history at this moment. Sure, Trump looks dominant now, but don't be fooled. It wouldn't surprise me at all if in two years' time the Republicans end up losing the House of Representatives in the congressional midterm elections.Andrew Keen: When it comes to progressives, what do you make of the Democratic response, or perhaps the lack of response, to the failure of Kamala Harris? The huge amount of money, the uninspiring nature of her campaign, the fiasco over Biden—were these all accidental events or do they speak of a broader crisis on the left amongst progressives in America?Nick Bryant: They speak of both. There were really big mistakes made by the Democrats, not least Joe Biden's decision to contest the election as long as he did. It had become pretty clear by the beginning of 2024 that he wasn't in a fit state to serve four more years or take on the challenge of Donald Trump.Biden did too well at two critical junctures. During the midterm elections in 2022, many people predicted a red wave, a red tsunami. If that had happened, Biden would have faced pressure to step aside for an orderly primary process to pick a successor. But the red wave turned into a red ripple, and that persuaded Biden he was the right candidate. He focused on democracy, put democracy on the ballot, hammered the point about January 6th, and decided to run.Another critical juncture was the State of the Union address at the beginning of 2024. Biden did a good job, and I think that allayed a lot of concerns in the Democratic Party. Looking back on those two events, they really encouraged Biden to run again when he should never have done so.Remember, in 2020, he intimated that he would be a bridge to the next generation. He probably made a mistake then in picking Kamala Harris as his vice presidential candidate because he was basically appointing his heir. She wasn't the strongest Democrat to go up against Donald Trump—it was always going to be hard for a woman of color to win the Rust Belt. She wasn't a particularly good candidate in 2020 when she ran; she didn't even make it into 2020. She launched her campaign in Oakland, and while it looked good at the time, it became clear she was a poor candidate.Historical accidents, the wrong candidate, a suffering economy, and an America that has always been receptive to someone like Trump—all those factors played into his victory.Andrew Keen: If you were giving advice to the Democrats as they lick their wounds and begin to think about recovery and fighting the next battles, would you advise them to shift to the left or to the center?Nick Bryant: That's a fascinating question because you could argue it both ways. Do the Democrats need to find a populist of the left who can win back those blue-collar voters that have deserted the Democratic Party? This is a historical process that's been going on for many years. Working-class voters ditched the Democrats during the Reagan years and the Nixon years. Often race is part of that, often the bad economy is part of that—an economy that's not working for the working class who can't see a way to map out an American dream for themselves.You could argue for a left-wing populist, or you could argue that history shows the only way Democrats win the White House is by being centrist and moderate. That was true of LBJ, Jimmy Carter, and Bill Clinton—all Southerners, and that wasn't a coincidence. Southern Democrats came from the center of the party. Obama was a pragmatic, centrist candidate. Kennedy was a very pragmatic centrist who tried to bring together the warring tribes of the Democratic Party.Historically, you could argue Democrats need to move to the center and stake out that ground as Trump moves further to the right and the extremes. But what makes it harder to say for sure is that we're in a political world where a lot of the old rules don't seem to apply.Andrew Keen: We don't quite know what the new rules are or if there are any rules. You describe this moment as equivalent in historic terms to the fall of the Berlin Wall or perhaps 9/11. If we reverse that lens and look inwards, is there an equivalent historical significance? You had an interesting tweet about Doge and the attempt in some people's eyes for a kind of capture of power by Elon Musk and the replacement of the traditional state with some sort of almost Leninist state. What do you make of what's happening within the United States in domestic politics, particularly Musk's role?Nick Bryant: We've seen American presidents test the Constitution before. Nobody in the modern era has done it so flagrantly as Donald Trump, but Nixon tried to maximize presidential powers to the extent that he broke the law. Nixon would have been found guilty in a Senate trial had that impeachment process continued. Of course, he was forced to resign because a delegation of his own party drove down Pennsylvania Avenue and told him he had to go.You don't get that with the Republican Party and Donald Trump—they've fallen behind him. FDR was commonly described as an American dictator. H.L. Mencken wrote that America had a Caesar, a pharaoh. Woodrow Wilson was maximalist in his presidential powers. Abraham Lincoln was the great Constitution breaker, from trashing the First Amendment to exceeding his powers with the Emancipation Proclamation. Thomas Jefferson's Louisiana Purchase was unconstitutional—he needed congressional approval, which he didn't have.There's a long history of presidents breaking rules and Americans being okay with that. Lincoln has never been displaced from his historical throne of grace. FDR is regarded as one of the great presidents. What sets this moment apart is that constraints on presidents traditionally came from the courts and their own political parties. We're not seeing that with Donald Trump.Andrew Keen: What about the cultural front? There's talk of Trump's revenge, taking over the Kennedy Center in Washington, D.C., revenge against traditional scientists, possibly closing some universities. Is this overdramatic, or is Trump really taking revenge for what happened between 2020 and 2024 when he was out of power?Nick Bryant: Trump is in a vengeful mood—we always thought Trump 2.0 would be a project of vengeance. Republican presidents have always thought parts of the administrative state work against them, and Trump is dismantling it at warp speed. Elon Musk is going into various government departments acting like he's heading a hostile takeover of the federal government.Reagan launched a rhetorical assault on federal government, which was really a creation of the New Deal years under FDR. That period saw massive expansion of federal government into people's lives with Social Security and the welfare net. We haven't seen this kind of assault on federal government since then. Trump is also trying to dismantle what he regards as America's cultural establishment, which he sees as too white, too elitist, too intellectual. He's trying to remold America, its government, and cultural institutions in his own image.Andrew Keen: You've mentioned Reagan. I came to the U.S. like you—you came as a grad student to study American history. I came in the '80s and remember the hysteria at UC Berkeley over Reagan—that he would blow up the world, that he was clueless, a Hollywood actor with no right to be in politics. Is it conceivable that Trump could be just another version of Reagan? In spite of all this hysteria, might this second Trump regime actually be successful?Nick Bryant: You can't rule out that possibility. The mistake made about Reagan was seeing him as a warmonger when he really wanted to be a peacemaker. That was the point of ending the Cold War—he wanted to win it, but through gambles on people like Gorbachev and diplomatic moves his advisors warned against.There are analogies to Trump. I don't think he's a warmonger or wants to send U.S. troops into countries. He's described some surprising imperial ambitions like taking over Greenland, though Harry Truman once wanted that too. Trump wants to make peace, but the problem is on what terms. Peace in Ukraine, in Trump's view, means a massive win for Vladimir Putin and the sidelining of the Ukrainian people and America's European allies.There wasn't a big cost to Reagan's peacemaking—the European alliance stayed intact, he tinkered with government but didn't go after Social Security. The cost of Trump is the problem.Andrew Keen: The moral cost or the economic cost?Nick Bryant: Both. One thing that happened with Reagan was the opening of big disparities in income and wealth in American society. That was a big factor in Donald Trump's success—the paradox of how this billionaire from New York became the hero of the Rust Belt. When the gulf between executive pay and shop floor pay became massive, it was during the Reagan years.You see the potential of something similar now. Trump is supercharging an economy that looks like it will favor the tech giants and the world's richest man, Elon Musk. You end up worsening the problem you were arguably setting out to solve.You don't get landslides anymore in American politics—the last president to win 40 states was George Herbert Walker Bush. Reagan in '84 won 49 out of 50 states, almost getting a clean sweep except for Mondale's home state of Minnesota. I don't think Trump will be the kind of unifying president that Reagan was. There was a spontaneity and optimism about Reagan that you don't see with Trump.Andrew Keen: Where are the divisions? Where is the great threat to Trump coming from? There was a story this week that Steve Bannon called Elon Musk a parasitic illegal immigrant. Is it conceivable that the biggest weakness within the Trump regime will come from conflict between people like Bannon and Musk, the nationalists and the internationalist wing of the MAGA movement?Nick Bryant: That's a fascinating question. There doesn't seem to be much external opposition at the moment. The Democrats are knocked out or taking the eight count in boxing terms, getting back on their feet and taking as long as they can to get their gloves up. There isn't a leader in the Democratic movement who has anywhere near Trump's magnetism or personal power to take him on.Maybe the opposition comes from internal divisions and collapse of the Trump project. The relationship with Elon Musk was something I didn't anticipate in my book. After that assassination attempt, Musk endorsed Trump in a big way, put his money behind him, started offering cash prizes in Pennsylvania. Having lived at Mar-a-Lago during the transition with a cottage on the grounds and now an office in the White House—I didn't anticipate his role.Many people thought Trump wouldn't put up with somebody who overshadows him or gets more attention, but that relationship hasn't failed yet. I wonder if that speaks to something different between Trump 2.0 and 1.0. Trump's surrounded by loyalists now, but at 78 years old, I think he wanted to win the presidency more than he wanted the presidency itself. I wonder if he's happy to give more responsibility to people like Musk who he thinks will carry out his agenda.Andrew Keen: You've been described as the new Alistair Cooke. Cooke was the father of Anglo-American journalism—his Letter from America was an iconic show, the longest-running show in radio history. Cooke was always very critical of what he called the big daddy state in Washington, D.C., wasn't a fan of large government. What's your take on Trump's attack on large government in D.C.? Is there anything in it? You spent a lot of time in DC. Are these agencies full of fat and do they need to be cut?Nick Bryant: Cutting fat out of Washington budgets is one of the easy things—they're bloated, they get all these earmarks, they're full of pork. There's always been a bloated federal bureaucracy, and there's a long historical tradition of suspicion of Washington going back to the founding. That's why the federal system emerged with so much power vested in the states.Reagan's revolution was based on dismantling the New Deal government. He didn't get that far in that project, but rhetorically he shifted America's views about government. He emphasized that government was the problem, not the solution, for four decades. When Bill Clinton became president, he had to make this big ideological concession to Reaganism and deliver Reaganite lines like "the era of big government is over."The concern right now is that they're not just getting rid of fat—they're getting rid of expertise and institutional knowledge. They're removing people who may be democratic in their thinking or not on board with the Trump revolution, but who have extensive experience in making government work. In moments of national crisis, conservative ideologues tend to become operational liberals. They rely on government in disasters, pandemics, and economic crises to bail out banks and industries.Conservatives have successfully planted in many Americans' heads that government is the enemy. Hillary Clinton saw a classic sign in 2006—a protester carrying a sign saying "get your government hands off my Medicare." Well, Medicare is a government program. People need government, expertise, and people in Washington who know what they're doing. You're not just getting rid of waste—you're getting rid of institutional knowledge.Andrew Keen: One of the more colorful characters in these Trump years is RFK Jr. There was an interesting piece in the National Review about RFK Jr. forcing the left to abandon the Kennedy legacy. Is there something symbolically historical in this shift from RFK Sr. being an icon on the left to RFK Jr. being an icon on the libertarian right? Does it speak of something structural that's changed in American political culture?Nick Bryant: Yes, it does, and it speaks to how America is perceived internationally. JFK was always seen as this liberal champion, but he was an arch pragmatist, never more so than on civil rights. My doctoral thesis and first book were about tearing down that myth about Kennedy.The Kennedys did inspire international respect. The Kennedy White House seemed to be a place of rationality, refinement, and glamor. JFK embodied what was great about America—its youth, dynamism, vision. When RFK was assassinated in California, weeks after MLK's assassination, many thought that sense of America was being killed off too. These were people who inspired others internationally to enter public service. They saw America as a beacon on a hill.RFK Jr. speaks of a different, toxic American exceptionalism. People look at figures like RFK Jr. and wonder how he could possibly end up heading the American Health Department. He embodies what many people internationally reject about America, whereas JFK and RFK embodied what people loved, admired, and wanted to emulate.Andrew Keen: You do a show now on Australian television. What's the view from Australia? Are people as horrified and disturbed in Australia as they are in Europe about what you've called a historic change as profound as the fall of the Berlin Wall—or maybe rather than the fall of the Berlin Wall, it's the establishment of a new kind of Berlin Wall?Nick Bryant: One of Australia's historic diplomatic fears is abandonment. They initially looked to Britain as a security guarantor in the early days of Australian Federation when Australia became a modern country in 1901. After World War II, they realized Britain couldn't protect them, so they looked to America instead. America has underwritten Australia's security since World War II.Now many Australians realize that won't be the case anymore. Australia entered into the AUKUS deal with Britain and America for nuclear submarine technology, which has become the basis of Australia's defense. There's fear that Trump could cancel it on a whim. They're currently battling over steel and aluminum tariffs. Anthony Albanese, the center-left prime minister, got a brief diplomatic reprieve after talking with Trump last week.A country like Australia, much like Britain, France, or Germany, cannot look on Trump's America as a reliable ally right now. That's concerning in a region where China increasingly throws its weight around.Andrew Keen: Although I'm guessing some people in Australia would be encouraged by Trump's hostility towards China.Nick Bryant: Yes, that's one area where they see Trump differently than in Europe because there are so many China hawks in the Trump administration. That gives them some comfort—they don't see the situation as directly analogous to Europe. But it's still worrying. They've had presidents who've been favorable towards Australia over the years. Trump likes Australia partly because America enjoys a trade surplus with Australia and he likes Greg Norman, the golfer. But that only gives you a certain measure of security.There is concern in this part of the world, and like in Europe, people are questioning whether they share values with a president who is aligning himself with far-right parties.Andrew Keen: Finally, Nick, your penultimate book was "When America Stopped Being Great: A History of the Present." You had an interesting tweet where you noted that the final chapter in your current book, "The Forever War," is called "Goodbye America." But the more we talk, whether or not America remains great is arguable. If anything, this conversation is about "hello" to a new America. It's not goodbye America—if anything, America's more powerful, more dominant, shaping the world more in the 2020s than it's ever done.Nick Bryant: It's goodbye to the America we've known for the last 70 years, but not goodbye to America itself. That's one of the arguments of the book—Trump is far more representative of the true America than many international observers realize. If you look at American history through a different lens, Trump makes perfect sense.There's always been an authoritarian streak, a willingness to fall for demagogues, political violence, deep mistrust of government, and rich people making fortunes—from the robber barons of the late 19th century to the tech barons of the 21st century. It's goodbye to a certain America, but the America that Trump presides over now is an America that's always been there. Trump hasn't changed America—he's revealed it.Andrew Keen: Well, one thing we can say for sure is it's not goodbye to Nick Bryant. We'll get you back on the show. You're one of America's most perceptive and incisive observers, even if you're in Australia now. Thank you so much.Nick Bryant: Andrew, it's always a pleasure to be with you. I still love the country deeply—my fascination has always been born of great affection.Nick Bryant is the author of The Forever War: American's Unending Conflict with Itself and When America Stopped Being Great, a book that Joe Biden keeps in the Oval Office. He was formerly one of the BBC's most senior foreign correspondents, with postings in Washington DC, New York, South Asia and Australia. After covering the presidencies of Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump and Joe Biden, he left the BBC in 2021, and now lives in Sydney with his wife and children. Nick studied history at Cambridge and has a doctorate in American history from Oxford.Named as one of the "100 most connected men" by GQ magazine, Andrew Keen is amongst the world's best known broadcasters and commentators. In addition to presenting the daily KEEN ON show, he is the host of the long-running How To Fix Democracy interview series. He is also the author of four prescient books about digital technology: CULT OF THE AMATEUR, DIGITAL VERTIGO, THE INTERNET IS NOT THE ANSWER and HOW TO FIX THE FUTURE. Andrew lives in San Francisco, is married to Cassandra Knight, Google's VP of Litigation & Discovery, and has two grown children.Keen On America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit keenon.substack.com/subscribe

La Saint Valentin n'est pas toujours synonyme d'amour fou... A cette occasion, découvrez un nouveau hors-série de Home(icides), sur un drame meurtrier au sein de la grande famille du sport. L'affaire Sally McNeil semble tout droit sortie d'un film. Son personnage principal est une bodybuildeuse. L'arme du crime est un fusil à pompe. Et la scène se passe en Californie… un soir de Saint Valentin ! Une tragédie à l'américaine, pleine de bruit et de fureur… L'itinéraire d'une enfant maudite  Sally est née en 1960 à Allentown, Pennsylvanie, autrement dit : au mauvais endroit, au mauvais moment.. Allentown est en effet une ville moyenne du Nord-est des Etats-Unis, qui a été frappée de plein fouet par la mort de l'industrie. La région, qui produisait jadis avec fierté l'acier américain, est devenue la Rust Belt, la « ceinture de rouille ». Les jobs se sont envolés. Et, à la maison, c'est Sally qui dérouille. Elle grandit dans un foyer violent, avec un père alcoolique qui battait sa femme.  Découvrez la saison précédente en intégralité : L'affaire Eric Bruyas Un podcast Bababam Originals Voix : François Hatt Ecriture : Martin Quenehen En partenariat avec upday.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The idea of saving manufacturing jobs is front-and-center in American politics today. Examining the history of plant closings and job losses In the 70's and 80's provides an interesting contrast. "We ought to make stuff here, or we should try to keep this plant open." were radical stances, confined to political fringes, and usually left. In once case, a group of workers, residents and church leaders in a town try for what is called an Industrial Selma - a radical plan to reopen a plant led by an activist straight from the Freedom Summer civil rights fights and anti- Vietnam War protests. In the course of telling the story we look at the early American Rust Belt, we look at typical Rust Belt city (that happens to be Bruce's ancestors home). We look at alternatives to closing plants, and we hear a story about the Panic of 1873. This will be the final episode of our second-run of the Ark of Commerce series. This is one of the original episodes, and I'm pleased to provide to Patrons early. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In today's episode:A Whitney Cummings bit produces direct evidence of blatant fake news manipulation of timelinesDonald Trump visits Los Angeles where he demands a sped-up permit process and the ability of the people to keep their land and rebuild, wondering if the fire was a genius based on how it was moving in such clever waysTrump heads to Vegas for a rally where he suggests the end of the federal income tax and discusses this, his third term, and maybe even a future fourthJD Vance is acting like Trump's shadow, looking Very (Vice) Presidential, doing everything Trump does right after he does itVivek Ramaswamy, the face of H1B visa abuse, will be using JD Vance's campaign team for his Rust Belt governor runDeepSeek has let open-source AI into the wild.Connect with Be Reasonable: https://linktr.ee/imyourmoderatorLinks, articles, ideas - follow the info stream at t.me/veryreasonableHear the show when it's released. Become a paid subscriber at imyourmoderator.substack.comVisit the show's sponsors:Diversify your assets into Bitcoin: https://partner.river.com/reasonableDiversify your assets into precious metals: reasonablegold.comJoin the new information infrastructure - get Starlink: https://www.starlink.com/residential?referral=RC-1975306-67744-74Other ways to support the work:ko-fi.com/imyourmoderatorDonate btc via coinbase: 3MEh9J5sRvMfkWd4EWczrFr1iP3DBMcKk5Make life more comfortable: mypillow.com/reasonableMerch site:https://cancelcouture.myspreadshop.com/https://cancelcouture.comor https://riseattireusa.com/intl/cancelcouture/Follow the podcast info stream: t.me/veryreasonableYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@imyourmoderatorOther social platforms: Truth Social, Gab, Rumble, or Gettr - @imyourmoderator Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/be-reasonable-with-your-moderator-chris-paul. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In today's episode:A Whitney Cummings bit produces direct evidence of blatant fake news manipulation of timelinesDonald Trump visits Los Angeles where he demands a sped-up permit process and the ability of the people to keep their land and rebuild, wondering if the fire was a genius based on how it was moving in such clever waysTrump heads to Vegas for a rally where he suggests the end of the federal income tax and discusses this, his third term, and maybe even a future fourthJD Vance is acting like Trump's shadow, looking Very (Vice) Presidential, doing everything Trump does right after he does itVivek Ramaswamy, the face of H1B visa abuse, will be using JD Vance's campaign team for his Rust Belt governor runDeepSeek has let open-source AI into the wild.Connect with Be Reasonable: https://linktr.ee/imyourmoderatorLinks, articles, ideas - follow the info stream at t.me/veryreasonableHear the show when it's released. Become a paid subscriber at imyourmoderator.substack.comVisit the show's sponsors:Diversify your assets into Bitcoin: https://partner.river.com/reasonableDiversify your assets into precious metals: reasonablegold.comJoin the new information infrastructure - get Starlink: https://www.starlink.com/residential?referral=RC-1975306-67744-74Other ways to support the work:ko-fi.com/imyourmoderatorDonate btc via coinbase: 3MEh9J5sRvMfkWd4EWczrFr1iP3DBMcKk5Make life more comfortable: mypillow.com/reasonableMerch site:https://cancelcouture.myspreadshop.com/https://cancelcouture.comor https://riseattireusa.com/intl/cancelcouture/Follow the podcast info stream: t.me/veryreasonableYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@imyourmoderatorOther social platforms: Truth Social, Gab, Rumble, or Gettr - @imyourmoderator Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/be-reasonable-with-your-moderator-chris-paul. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Please welcome back Grant Newsham, retired marine colonel and author of When China Attacks,  A Warning to America. Grant came on the show to discuss the state of the Japan Defense Forces and the PRC threat.  This is a two-part episode. Grant's biography: https://centerforsecuritypolicy.org/author/grant-newsham/ Book link: https://www.regnery.com/9781684513659/when-china-attacks/ A recent article: https://andmagazine.substack.com/p/the-us-in-the-pacific-getting-the?utm_source=substack&publication_id=746580&post_id=151553726&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&utm_campaign=email-share&triggerShare=true&isFreemail=true&r=ercjf&triedRedirect=true --- One CA is a product of the civil affairs association  and brings in people who are current or former military, diplomats, development officers, and field agents to discuss their experiences on the ground with a partner nation's people and leadership. We aim to inspire anyone interested in working in the "last three feet" of U.S. foreign relations.  To contact the show, email us at CApodcasting@gmail.com  or look us up on the Civil Affairs Association website at www civilaffairsassoc.org --- Special thanks to the site Cool Jazz Hot Bossa for the sample of Cool Jazz Hot Bossa. (59:00). Retrieved from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bdWUj2NYDYQ --- Transcript: (Part I) 00:00:05 JACK GAINES Welcome to the 1CA Podcast. This is your host, Jack Gaines. 1CA is a product of the Civil Affairs Association and brings in people who are current or former military, diplomats, development officers, and field agents to discuss their experiences on ground with the partner nation's people and leadership. Our goal is to inspire anyone interested in working the last three feet of foreign relations. To contact the show, email us at capodcasting@gmail.com. Or look us up on the Civil Affairs Association website at www.civilaffairsassoc.org. I'll have those in the show notes. Please welcome Grant Newsham, retired Marine Colonel and author of When China Attacks, A Warning to America. Grant came on the show to discuss the state of the Japan Defense Forces and the PRC threat. This is the first of a two-part episode, so let's get started. 00:00:56 GRANT NEWSHAM I was effectively MarforPak's guy in Asia for a number of years. which worked well in both directions. So I was obviously in Japan, but also did a lot of work for them throughout the region, Southeast Asia as well, Taiwan even, which was a lot of fun. 00:01:13 JACK GAINES Yeah. And you've become a foreign policy advocate in the area. 00:01:16 GRANT NEWSHAM Yeah. At some point, maybe seven or eight years ago, figured I'd actually done enough stuff to maybe have a few ideas. So I started writing and speak a lot as well. So I guess I'm part of the commentariat. But I seem to write about once a week some topic related to often Asian defense, but sometimes economics, politics, sometimes organized crime. And I do get invited to speak here and there and seem to get a number of television or radio interviews as well. That's really cool. I didn't say I get invited to good things, but I do get the occasional invitation. I used to think it was because I had such insight. Someone told me not all that long ago that actually, if you'll say yes to an interview, you're likely to get more of them. Because the people who book them, they just want to get somebody on. And I thought it was because of my particular wisdom. 00:02:07 JACK GAINES of my particular wisdom. 00:02:09 GRANT NEWSHAM I'm joking a little bit. But obviously, you must have something useful to say. But it is funny. There's one place in Singapore that calls me a lot. It's like their CNN. And they've been calling me. Probably eight years at least, or almost every time, I'll tell the presenters that basically they don't know what they're talking about. And I always think, well, this is the last one, but they keep calling me up. They mislike you because you're the contrarian. 00:02:34 JACK GAINES mislike you because you're the contrarian. 00:02:36 GRANT NEWSHAM Oh, I can blame things in a way that sort of suits broadcast and that sort of regular people can understand, you know, 00:02:42 GRANT NEWSHAM that sort of regular people can understand, you know, being a regular person myself. 00:02:47 JACK GAINES Yeah, you learn to disagree without offending. 00:02:49 GRANT NEWSHAM Usually. And it's always sort of a relief, actually, when you can have a different look at things. 00:02:56 JACK GAINES That's good. I always thought you were going to say it is a relief sometimes when you just peel the coat off and then yell at them. 00:03:02 GRANT NEWSHAM The facts speak for themselves. Right. And if it's a presenter, their role is different, and they will generally not have the substantive knowledge that most of the people on the show will have. Right. And so much of what I have to say is often not... in line with accepted wisdom, particularly when it comes to Japan. Sure. So it's often that I'll have to present a different take on things, but they don't seem to be offended. 00:03:27 JACK GAINES Right. You mostly talk about Japan in its current defense fashion or in its foreign policy actions. 00:03:33 GRANT NEWSHAM A lot of that because people have a perception of Japan, for example, as a pacifist country. It cannot fight. It's peace loving. Right. etc. They have a nuclear allergy. You know, just the idea of nuclear weapons in Japan is out of the question. You often hear, well, their constitution won't let them fight. And none of those things are actually true. But it's the received wisdom. It's what people think. And when you simply point out the realities of Japan, that ultimately, at the end of the day, it's a country just like every other. And that the stereotypes about it really aren't correct when it comes to defense security. In fact, they use that the Constitution won't let them have a military. You probably heard it. Yeah. That's the idea. And they don't even call it a military. But the fact is they've got a military, which, according to some ratings, is the fifth most powerful in the world. It depends on how you calculate it, of course. But they call it something else. And what is the actual distinction between offensive and defensive weapons? 00:04:35 JACK GAINES It's usually the strike space. If it's inside your own country defending, then it's a defense space. Once you go out and start taking out other people's cities and moving forces in. 00:04:44 GRANT NEWSHAM Well, for example, they don't have much what you call power projection capability very far off their borders. But they do have a submarine fleet, say over 20 submarines. There's no reason you couldn't send them to the coast of China and start sinking ships. 00:04:59 JACK GAINES True. 00:05:00 GRANT NEWSHAM They've got F -16s. You can put long -range missiles on them and you can fly out of ways and cause people a lot of trouble. But their military really, I would say, is not so good at offense. It's not so good at defense either. And that's something that comes as a surprise to a lot of people. 00:05:15 JACK GAINES Well, do they exercise defense and offense? 00:05:18 GRANT NEWSHAM Oh, they have exercises, training, and they put on a pretty good show, particularly when they have visitors come. But they really, until very recently, and even now, they can't do joint operations, which means the air, sea, and ground forces. can't operate together. In fact, they don't even have a radio with which they can communicate easily. They have to jury -rig some relations, these connections. And that's something most people don't understand, because you look at it on paper. Japan has 250 ,000 people in its military, and it's got ships, aircraft, all of it modern and good stuff. 150 ,000 people in its ground self -defense force, their army. But it's not even the sum of its whole. If you imagine each of your limbs, your arms and your legs, each doing whatever it wants without the coordinating function provided by a brain. 00:06:10 JACK GAINES Sounds like me dancing. 00:06:12 GRANT NEWSHAM It would be, yeah. I think that I can picture that, whereas I'm more of an Arthur Murray kind of guy. But it's like that. And nobody can believe that because they think, well, this is the Japanese. It's this advanced modern country, big military, the rich country. And I mean, they can't even do these simple things. Right. The short answer is no, except in some limited circumstances. After 60 years of the U .S.-Japan defense relationship, 80 years after World War II, they still cannot do some of the basic things that a military needs to do, or do them very well, put it that way. But they do train, they exercise, the personnel quality is excellent. You know, we tend to say, well, we've got Japan as our ally, Japan has a military. But the reality is that the U .S. and Japanese forces cannot work very well together. There's one exception, and that's the two navies. The U .S. Navy and the Japanese Navy, called the Maritime Self -Defense Force, they actually do work well. And they show what's doable. 00:07:15 JACK GAINES They probably do dynamic exercises as well as structured ones, so they have to change, have to practice new orders and maneuvers. 00:07:22 GRANT NEWSHAM Well, the nature of naval operations is you can go out... into the sea, and you have more freedom to actually do stuff. But part of it actually was when Admiral Arleigh Burke, who was later chief of naval operations for many years, he was in charge in Japan. He basically laid down the ground rules, which was that the American Navy was going to treat the Japanese like friends, like allies. And that set the tone for everything. So they had a more relationship of equals, people who wanted to operate together. And that is why they have a good relationship today. in my opinion. So as a result, after all these decades, the two militaries are not really very good at operating together. There's no joint headquarters. There never has been in Japan. At best, they've operated in isolation. Do they recognize they don't have a joint access? Oh, they know. The Japanese military knows this. And US Indo -PACOM has not pushed the issue. And then you had... The State Department side, on the civilian side, people saying, well, if we ask the Japanese to get better at defense matters, well, they'll get angry. And if they do, then the Chinese will be mad. So you have the U .S. on the U .S. side. We're thinking of at least 10 reasons why Japan cannot improve its defenses. That's changed enough in recent years. But you see how many decades we've lost. 00:08:51 JACK GAINES Right. I can see part of what the State Department is saying in that a lot of those countries along the Asian coast were under Japanese rule during World War II. They're concerned that by showing favor and coordinating with them in defense might offend places like the Philippines or Korea. It is a concern to be weighed, but I don't know how much weight you would put to it. 00:09:14 GRANT NEWSHAM I wouldn't give it hardly any. With the Japanese, when you actually think about it, I would say within... 30 years of the end of the war, but certainly today, and for the last at least 20 years ago. The new century. Even before that. The Japanese and World War II is not really an issue in almost all of Asia. The Chinese, of course... Play it up. That's a good way to put it. Of course, they do remember what the Japanese did, and it was barbaric. Although the Chinese Communist Party afterwards killed 50 million Chinese in peacetime and good weather, which the Imperial Japanese Army couldn't have dreamed of doing. But World War II is an issue in China. Korea as well, the relationship is dicey. Up to a point. I mean, little old ladies go and sit in front of the embassy still. 00:10:05 JACK GAINES the embassy still. 00:10:06 GRANT NEWSHAM There are, and then you just had a South Korean amphibious ship come to Yokosuka in Tokyo on a visit. In Korea, there's a fundamental sort of suspicion of the Japanese. Sometimes it is a real dislike. But most people, it's not a big issue. But except for those two countries, you go down the list in Asia, and there is no after effect of World War II. I find the Filipinos get along very well with the Japanese. The Indonesians do. They, in fact, see the Japanese as being the people who freed them from the colonial yoke. Okay. The Malays, they actually didn't have that bad a time during the occupation. The Chinese in Malaysia did. So the Malaysians don't have any really hard feelings against the Japanese. Taiwan, same thing. They've got a very good relationship. And then there's one plus billion Indians who actually have an excellent relationship with Japan and see Japan as real friends and vice versa. So you're starting to get a good chunk of Asia, which, as you can see, actually sees Japan as a good country, useful economically. It's been very generous. And they like to see a Japanese military that's strong enough, allied with the United States, able to deal with China. 00:11:27 JACK GAINES Right. And why would we have such a different balance as we do with Germany and Europe? Because no one's questioning this in Holland or in France. That's just another country. They freely trade, they freely access each other. So maybe mindset just needs to shift to say the reform of Japan is just like Germany, and we need to start treating them and partner nations the same and start advocating for a joint staff. 00:11:52 GRANT NEWSHAM And you could do that in an afternoon, but the Japanese will not speak up for themselves. And an old New York Times reporter, Richard Halloran, I remember him telling me once that all the people he ever dealt with in the world... The Japanese were the worst at explaining themselves. And there's a reticence which slows them down. But also the Americans are afraid to tell them what we need. And that is a huge problem, because if we don't tell them, the Japanese are not blind readers, and they won't do what we think we'd like them to do, but we're afraid to ask. And in fact, one of the Japanese prime ministers in 1970, so 50 -some years ago, He gave some very good advice to the Americans, and it was at the time the Americans were trying to put an aircraft carrier into Yokosuka, the naval base near Tokyo. They wanted to assign it there permanently. And the U .S. side was thinking of excuses why it was too hard for the Japanese. They'll cause political difficulties. The Japanese have an election coming up. The timing just isn't right. And finally, the Japanese side sent a message to the Americans saying, tell us what you need. And don't back down. And they said it out of exasperation, really. And it was the best advice the Americans have ever been given. And we've refused to follow it ever since then. And really, it's almost a cultural trait, sort of a Confucian system. They actually are happy to have experts tell them what they ought to do. Sure. Whereas we are more of the Socratic method. And it doesn't, it just doesn't work. That's why after all these years, the Americans and the Japanese forces, except for the navies, And except for missile defense, we really don't operate together anywhere near where we need to be. We're not even close. And another very interesting fact a lot of people don't know is the Japanese military missed its recruitment targets by about 50 % last year. 5 -0? 00:13:50 JACK GAINES -0? 00:13:50 GRANT NEWSHAM 5 -0. And it routinely misses them by 20 -25%. So this, you can see, is a problem. It's now an older force, doesn't have enough people. In order to fulfill its missions, it would probably have to be twice as big, both personnel -wise and in terms of ships and hardware. Its war stocks are basically non -existent, doesn't know anything really about casualty care, combat casualty replacements, logistics. 00:14:20 JACK GAINES Well, if the media looks down on it and the political class looks down on it, it's not going to get a lot of positivity in the public mindset. So that's got to be part of it. It's not a vote -getter to push for a strong defense. 00:14:31 GRANT NEWSHAM vote -getter to push for a strong defense. I mean, if you're a politician, no one's going to say, he's the defense guy, let's give him our vote. But people vote for other reasons. But you do get used to, after that horrific experience in World War II, that for decades people didn't want to really think about defense, and they were glad to have the Americans around to handle it, and particularly when it seemed like there wasn't any real threat anywhere. People were happy with that, and even the U .S. side. didn't mind it as well. But I'd say it should have started to change at least 20 years ago. And it didn't until maybe four or five years ago. Well, 00:15:10 JACK GAINES when did the risk indicators really start popping up with China? 00:15:14 GRANT NEWSHAM I think by... It can't be back when Nixon went. 00:15:15 JACK GAINES It can't be back when Nixon went. Well, it should have, 00:15:16 GRANT NEWSHAM it should have, you know, I think. But about 2005 is when it was obvious what was coming. 00:15:19 JACK GAINES But about 00:15:21 GRANT NEWSHAM when it was obvious what was coming. And even before that, if you knew what to look for. But as I said, some of us... We knew what needed done and what the problems were. And there were Japanese who did too. And that's why when we put together their amphibious force, it was sort of an effort to address the shortcomings in Japan's self -defense force. Also to improve the overall U .S.-Japan relationship because it was so imbalanced. Right. Where the Japanese weren't doing anything near enough to defend themselves. And that over time creates a lot of friction in a relationship. So we were trying to address that with the amphibious force, and that was 2011, which we were pretty successful at that because we didn't ask permission from anybody. I was going to say, if you were successful, 00:16:10 JACK GAINES did you get fired? 00:16:11 GRANT NEWSHAM Well, it's not that people didn't try. 00:16:11 JACK GAINES Well, it's not that people didn't try. Sorry, that was sarcastic. But I was a reservist, so they couldn't quite get a bead on me. 00:16:15 GRANT NEWSHAM I was a reservist, so they couldn't quite get a bead on me. Yeah. And didn't quite know what we were doing. And also you had people like General Gregson, who was then at... Department of Defense, who had been in Japan many years, and he knew the importance of it all. So he would provide some cover. But the real success there was because the Japanese side took the ideas and ran with it. And the Americans provided some cover and some know -how and some advice. But it was the Japanese who did that. Once the Japanese took on the mission, well, what are the Americans going to say? But I was even told that at Indo -PACOM, that there were people who gotten wind of this and were very much opposed because the idea that Japanese having an amphibious force was provocative. Not just provocative, but it was going to cause the Japanese to go on the rampage again, like in 1941. I'm not making this up. 00:17:11 JACK GAINES So when Germany starts building the Leopard 2, were they expected to go on a rampage too? 00:17:17 GRANT NEWSHAM No, those are Europeans. Oh, okay. You know how the Europeans are okay. 00:17:19 JACK GAINES okay. You know 00:17:21 GRANT NEWSHAM But the fact that Germans have been allowed back into polite society. tells you something, and the Japanese are just as deserving of it as well. 00:17:30 JACK GAINES Did you see the movie Godzilla Minus One? No. It's an interesting portrayal of post -World War II Japan. And Godzilla, which is this giant monster, comes out of the sea, tears up Japan, and has an atomic breath that shoots off nuclear explosions, which sounds a lot like the United States in a mythological way. One thing that... the show did that was interesting is it kind of engaged post -military era and had talked about it. And it seemed like it was trying to reconcile the past with now and build out a notion that the military is okay, that after the war, there were good things that happened and that we should embrace a military in the future. So there might be some societal impulses out there that are promoting and supporting a more built -up military in Japan. 00:18:24 GRANT NEWSHAM Well, you're actually right. The public at large has always been pretty supportive of the military. For example, when they have open base days, when they put on so -called firepower demonstrations, which is like an exercise you can watch where they shoot off stuff, that they're always oversubscribed. And people just pour into these things because they're interested. And the central government, or say the ruling class, are the ones who are gun -shy or... I'm really hesitant, but the public at large, you know, when you ask them, you know, should Japan have a normal military? The replies to that are like 85%. Well, yes, of course. And I think they would be horrified if they knew the actual state of the Japanese military. I mentioned this to a Japanese politician last year, and he was horrified at the idea. And the public as well would have a similar reaction. Regular Japanese people say they have a pretty good understanding of what Japan needs to do to defend itself and of the importance of having a national defense, but the government doesn't explain it very well. When they do, the reaction, there's a Japanese expression, it's called like, it's atarimae. And it means like, well, yeah. It's like, duh. 00:19:42 JACK GAINES Abnautually. And that's what it means. 00:19:42 GRANT NEWSHAM And that's what it means. Should Japan have a good defense? Atarimae. And yeah, what's the question here? But if you ask that question in the political world, then you'll get all sorts of emming and hawing. They wanted nothing of that. By the late 70s, certainly by the 90s, that they sort of outlived that. But it was comfortable to continue with it, particularly if you're the government, because you don't have to spend money on defense. And the Americans are covering that. So it was as if the Americans were giving. I'd say at least $50 billion a year in free defense coverage, at least, probably more. And, you know, if you're a government, you think, well, why should we do anything different? And so they got used to that. We got used to it. And then at some point, the friction builds up where you just can't do that. And the Japanese themselves start to be resentful. 00:20:37 JACK GAINES Right. Keeping them handicapped, probably. 00:20:40 GRANT NEWSHAM Yeah. You know, they're not letting us be self -fulfilled. I think that's sort of the marriage counselor's analysis. And so that imbalance was such that it was creating huge problems in the relationship. But the defense relationship, you know, pointing out, well, you know, you guys really aren't very good, except for the Navy. You know, and we can't work with you very well, except for the Navies. And as a result, that's why we are where we are today. By now, if we had a more sort of capable U .S.-Japan defense relationship, where the two services could... operate together, and we're conducting a joint defense of Japan and the surrounding areas, which includes, say, to Taiwan even, that that would have, I think, deterred a lot of the problems that we're having. But by pretending everything was okay, we've gotten ourselves in a position where we now face a real threat out there. And we're trying to make up for lost time. And I don't know. And I don't know which side I would bet on. I'd bet on ours because I'm an American. But that's how out of whack it has gotten. It used to be maybe till 20 years ago, we were in pretty good shape. But you can see that advantage eroding. And nowadays, depending on how a fight were to take place, if it does take place, it would be less of a sure thing than it once was. And that's, I think, putting it very nicely. 00:22:04 JACK GAINES Well, tell me about the threat. 00:22:05 GRANT NEWSHAM What are you seeing? It's China. led by the Chinese Communist Party. (Part II) 00:00:02 JACK GAINES Welcome to the 1CA Podcast. This is your host, Jack Gaines. 1CA is a product of the Civil Affairs Association and brings in people who are current or former military, diplomats, development officers, and field agents to discuss their experiences on ground with the partner nation's people and leadership. Our goal is to inspire anyone interested in working the last three feet of foreign relations. To contact the show, email us at capodcasting@gmail.com. or look us up on the Civil Affairs Association website at www.civilaffairsassoc.org. I'll have those in the show notes. Please welcome back Grant Newsham, retired Marine colonel and author of When China Attacks, A Warning to America. Grant came on the show to discuss the state of the Japanese defense forces and the PRC threat. This is the second in a two-part episode, so let's get started. 00:00:56 SPEAKER_02 It's China. led by the Chinese Communist Party. They built up a military which is just gradually but steadily expanding its reach and its coverage. And it is compared to, say, 2020, now instead of just being able to operate a little bit off their coast, they can reach Guam, Hawaii, and onwards. The Chinese military doesn't tend to develop into a force able to operate worldwide just like the U .S. can. And their ship numbers. They've got more than we do. Something like 350 versus our 290. 00:00:58 JACK GAINES the Chinese Communist Party. 00:01:06 JACK GAINES its reach 00:01:11 JACK GAINES say, 2020, now instead of just being able to operate a little bit 00:01:15 GRANT NEWSHAM off their coast, they can reach Guam, Hawaii, and onwards. The Chinese military doesn't tend to develop into a force able to operate worldwide just 00:01:25 JACK GAINES like the U .S. can. And their ship numbers. They've got more than we do. Something like 350 versus our 00:01:37 SPEAKER_02 Well, fortunately, in terms of quality, they're pretty good. And they know what they need to do, and they're getting better. For some things like carrier operations, they're not at our level yet. But if you look at the speed at which they have developed, they're in pretty good shape. But let's just say the South China Sea, which is one and a half times the size of the Mediterranean. Whenever U .S. ships go in there, and we do publicize our transits and operations and exercises, for every ship we put in there, For every ship we put in, the Chinese can match it with at least 10. And that doesn't include ground -based and air -launched anti -ship missiles, for example. So if the Chinese pick their spot, 00:01:39 JACK GAINES they're pretty good. And they know what they need to do, and they're getting better. For some things like carrier operations, they're not at our level yet. But if you look at the speed at which they have developed, they're in pretty good shape. But let's just say the South China Sea, which is one and a half times the size of the Mediterranean. 00:02:00 JACK GAINES and we do publicize our transits and operations and exercises, for every ship we put in there, For every ship we put in, the Chinese can match it with at least 10. And that doesn't include ground -based and air -launched anti -ship missiles, for example. 00:02:16 SPEAKER_02 if the Chinese pick their spot, pick their timing, I wouldn't want to be the destroyer skipper who's got 20 anti -ship missiles coming at him. 20 anti -ship missiles coming at him. And he's got eight seconds to figure out what to do. The point is they have had de facto control of the South China Sea since about seven, eight years ago. And yes, we can go in there. But once we're gone, the Chinese close back up and they've pretty much got it. Beyond that, it's harder for them, but they're steadily expanding their capability to conduct operations. It's a military that has its problems, like every military, but they are trying to correct them. They are building a military which they want to be able to defeat a country that has aircraft carriers, which is us. In many respects, they are our equals. Have you ever heard a Korean War veteran who said he wanted to fight the Chinese again? And these were Chinese. These was the Chinese of 1950s. It's a very different place today. And I'm not saying that they can't be defeated, but I'm not saying that they can't be defeated. An adversary that could give us a lot of trouble. When their intentions are to first dominate regionally and locally, and then push that farther afield to all the Pacific and beyond. And they're setting up the infrastructure worldwide with ports and airfields to do that. They're investing in long -range transports, these naval replenishment ships that you need to be able to operate the way we do, and that's their mission. And we have pretended until about 2017 that this wasn't the case. In fact, you couldn't even say China was an adversary. And guys who did, like Captain James Fennell, who was the head of intelligence at Pack Fleet. He was cashier. He was forced to retire. He was cashier. He was forced to retire. The then administration hated him and got rid of him. And that's how bad it was. And I saw this all firsthand. Experience some of it, not as bad as Captain Fennell did. So we've allowed them to build up into a military that we had better take very seriously. And the Chinese do see this as a tool for their... 00:02:16 JACK GAINES if the 00:02:17 SPEAKER_03 Chinese pick their spot, pick their timing, I wouldn't want to be the destroyer skipper who's got 20 anti -ship missiles coming at him. 20 anti -ship missiles coming at him. 00:02:28 JACK GAINES figure out what to do. The point is they have had de facto control of the South China Sea since about seven, eight years ago. 00:02:39 JACK GAINES we're gone, the Chinese close back up and they've pretty much got it. Beyond that, it's 00:02:45 SPEAKER_03 but they're steadily expanding their capability to conduct operations. It's a military that has its problems, like every military, but they are trying to correct them. They are 00:02:55 JACK GAINES a military which they want to be able to defeat a country that has aircraft carriers, which is us. In many respects, 00:03:03 JACK GAINES our equals. Have you ever heard a Korean War veteran who said he wanted to fight the Chinese again? And these were Chinese. These was the Chinese of 1950s. It's a very different place today. And I'm not saying that they can't be defeated, but I'm not saying that they can't 00:03:22 JACK GAINES a lot of trouble. When their intentions are to first dominate regionally and locally, and then push that farther afield to all the Pacific and beyond. And they're setting up the infrastructure worldwide with ports and airfields to do that. They're investing in long -range transports, these naval replenishment ships that you need to be able to operate the way we do, and that's their mission. And we have pretended 00:03:50 SPEAKER_03 until about 2017 00:03:51 GRANT NEWSHAM that this wasn't the case. In fact, you couldn't even say China was an adversary. And guys who did, like Captain James Fennell, 00:04:01 JACK GAINES who was the head of intelligence at Pack Fleet. He was cashier. He was forced to retire. He was cashier. He was forced to retire. The then administration hated him and got rid of him. And that's how bad it was. And I saw this all firsthand. Experience some of it, not as bad as Captain Fennell did. So we've allowed them to build up into a military that we had better take very seriously. And the Chinese do see this as a tool for 00:04:30 SPEAKER_02 The idea is if you have a powerful military, well, that's when you can lean on people. That's when you can intimidate people. You can dominate them. And they're happy with the psychological domination, political domination. It doesn't have to be occupying, but dominating. And they're in every field, from outer space, long -range missiles, undersea warfare, really putting a lot of effort into it. And there is a certain sort of ingenuity that goes into their operations. Well, they can't invent things. They don't develop things on their own. They just steal things. So they reverse engineer things. So they reverse engineer. 00:04:32 SPEAKER_03 well, that's when you can lean on people. That's when 00:04:39 JACK GAINES And they're happy with the psychological domination, political domination. It doesn't have to be occupying, but dominating. And they're in every field, from outer space, long -range missiles, undersea warfare, really putting a lot of effort into it. And there is a certain sort of ingenuity that goes into their operations. Well, they can't invent things. They don't develop things on their own. They just steal things. So they reverse engineer things. 00:05:09 SPEAKER_02 Well, it... You know, it's kind of true up to a point, but look at us. The Yankee ingenuity was taking stolen British technology and making it better. And so the fact they may not be as innovative as us, well, sometimes it just has to be good enough. So they've got now a military to combine with this desire for political domination as well as considering their economic power as just as important as the military. And you see how successful that has been. When you have U .S. business leaders giving Xi Jinping two standing ovations last November in San Francisco, that tells you how successful they've been on the economic front. And the Japanese know they have a huge problem. You would often hear the Japanese military saying, one thing Taiwan's defense is Japan's defense. But I've even seen the calculations they did, like at which point the Japanese Navy would be outmatched by the Chinese Navy. And they had the date almost down to when it was. And our side, we were late recognizing this. We refused to. We refused to. 00:05:11 GRANT NEWSHAM kind of true up to a point, but look at us. The Yankee ingenuity was taking stolen British technology and making it better. And so the fact 00:05:20 SPEAKER_03 be as innovative as us, well, sometimes it just 00:05:23 JACK GAINES has to be good enough. So they've got now a military to combine with this desire for political domination as well as considering their economic power as just as important as the military. And you see how successful that has been. When you have U .S. business leaders giving Xi Jinping two standing 00:05:45 JACK GAINES San Francisco, that tells you how successful they've been on the economic front. And the Japanese know they have a huge problem. You 00:05:53 SPEAKER_03 would often hear the Japanese military saying, one thing Taiwan's defense is Japan's defense. But I've even seen the calculations they did, like at which 00:06:03 JACK GAINES point the 00:06:06 JACK GAINES be outmatched by the Chinese Navy. And they had the date almost down to when it was. And our side, we were late recognizing this. We refused 00:07:18 SPEAKER_02 Yeah, as he described it well. Ultimately, the military part of the fight is extremely important. But it's almost a sideshow. But it's almost a sideshow to the other activities, the other fight that China's been waging for the last 30, 40 years, almost ever since we opened up to them. And that has been generally referred to as political warfare, with components being economic warfare, financial warfare, drug warfare, which is the word the Chinese use. So all this fentanyl that's been pumped into America for the last decade that's killed up towards a million Americans, almost all of it comes from China. And they know exactly what they're doing. And so every year they're taking like the equivalent of two or three divisions off the battlefield. You've destroyed neighborhoods. You've destroyed successful economic warfare. Drive 30 miles up the road to Baltimore. Go to Sparrows, Baltimore. Where there used to be steel mills. And now you have Amazon fulfillment sectors at best. But you've seen just the gutting of American society, the so -called working class, the Rust Belt. And this was done intentionally. And this was done intentionally. In large part, Chinese economic warfare directed at the United States. And then you have cyber warfare as well. You have cyber espionage. Well beyond what countries normally do. But they have used it very effectively. And the Chinese just... Recently put out their new fighter. That's called the J -35. That is a dig at the Americans. Because it is based on stolen blueprints for the F -35. I don't know. 00:07:20 SPEAKER_03 Ultimately, the military part of the 00:07:26 SPEAKER_03 it's almost a sideshow. 00:07:29 JACK GAINES sideshow to the other activities, the other fight that China's been waging for the last 30, 40 years, almost ever since we opened up to them. And that has been generally referred to as political warfare, with components being economic warfare, financial warfare, drug warfare, which is the word the Chinese use. So all this fentanyl that's been pumped into America for the last decade that's killed up towards a million Americans, almost all of it comes from China. And they know exactly what they're doing. And so every year they're taking like the equivalent of two or three divisions off the battlefield. You've destroyed neighborhoods. You've destroyed successful economic warfare. Drive 30 miles up the road to Baltimore. Go to Sparrows, Baltimore. Where there used to be steel mills. And now you have Amazon fulfillment sectors at best. But you've seen just the gutting of American society, the so -called working class, the Rust Belt. And this was done intentionally. 00:08:26 JACK GAINES warfare directed at the United States. And then you have cyber warfare as well. You have cyber espionage. 00:08:34 SPEAKER_03 Well beyond what countries normally do. But they have used it very effectively. And the Chinese just... Recently put out their new fighter. That's called the J -35. That is a dig at 00:08:47 GRANT NEWSHAM it is based on stolen blueprints for the F -35. 00:08:55 GRANT NEWSHAM know. It's been a while. I don't know. It's been a while. 00:09:02 SPEAKER_02 Unfortunately, Copperfish is leapfrogging over stages. Yes, it may take them a little longer, but they will popscotch through it. And so... So I take it pretty seriously. Their Y -20, their long -range transport, is basically the C -17. And they've just been immensely successful at this sort of espionage. And at the same time, we've done nothing to push back on them. Then there's the propaganda angle of this, which really good old Jesuit meaning of the word just means to explain yourself or articulate your position. So people understand that they've been very successful in getting Americans to buy the Chinese line. China's rise is peaceful. China's rise is peaceful. China's never attacked anybody. China's never attacked anybody. It's not true. All great nations do this. So who are we to complain? America has its problems, too. America has its problems, too. Who are we to complain about the Chinese taking live organs out of Uyghurs and prisoners of conscience? And we've been able to convince ourselves that we've been able to convince ourselves that we've not only can we not do anything, we shouldn't do anything. This is changing. But you can see we were very late getting started. And this has all been done without firing a shot. Chinese economic inroads, Chinese economic inroads, which leads to political influence, is in, for example, South America and Africa. Just immense how fast that has come, how solid it is. Pacific Island, something similar is going on, something similar is going on. Look at the difficulties the Germans have had, weaning themselves off of this Chinese addiction. And as a result, 00:09:03 GRANT NEWSHAM is leapfrogging over stages. Yes, it may take them 00:09:07 SPEAKER_03 but they will 00:09:09 GRANT NEWSHAM popscotch through it. And so... So I take it pretty seriously. Their Y -20, 00:09:16 JACK GAINES their long -range transport, is basically the C -17. And they've just been immensely successful at this sort of espionage. And at the same time, we've done nothing to push back on them. Then there's the propaganda angle of this, which really good old Jesuit meaning of the word just means to explain yourself or articulate your position. So people understand that they've been very successful in getting Americans to buy the Chinese line. China's rise is peaceful. China's rise is peaceful. China's never attacked anybody. China's never attacked anybody. It's not true. All great nations do this. So who are we to complain? 00:09:49 SPEAKER_03 America has its problems, too. America has its problems, too. Who are we to complain about the Chinese taking live organs out of Uyghurs and prisoners of conscience? And we've been able to 00:10:00 JACK GAINES that we've been able 00:10:00 SPEAKER_03 to convince ourselves that we've not only can we not do anything, we shouldn't do anything. This is changing. But you can see we were very late getting started. And this has all been done without firing a shot. 00:10:10 JACK GAINES Chinese economic inroads, Chinese economic inroads, which leads to political influence, is in, for example, South America and Africa. Just immense how fast that has come, how solid it is. Pacific Island, something similar is going on, something similar is going on. 00:10:27 SPEAKER_03 Look at the difficulties the Germans have had, weaning themselves off of this Chinese addiction. 00:10:34 SPEAKER_02 as a result, they have been able to improve their position politically, psychologically, economically, and they've been able to do this globally without having to use their military. 00:10:36 SPEAKER_03 their position 00:10:40 GRANT NEWSHAM and they've been able to do this globally without having to use their military. 00:10:51 SPEAKER_02 Yeah, that's the idea. Is you don't want to. So our view of warfare is like a hundred -yard dash. Wherever the two sides come to the line, shake loose, and then someone fires a gun, and then someone fires a gun, and then it's game on. To the Chinese, the war has started long ago. And you're wearing down your opponent. You're weakening his ability to resist. You're creating chaos in his own country. There's a word called entropy. Which is just breaking down. Entropic warfare is a word that sometimes gets used. For you're breaking down his ability to resist. And at the same time, of course, the Chinese are building up a military, which is very serious. Yes, it's not showing up off of San Diego just yet. But places closer to China, it's much more of an issue. Japan knows the problem they have with the People's Liberation Army. Pacific Island, Southeast Asia. You are seeing more of a Chinese presence. And the point is, when the time comes, you may not even be able to resist if the Chinese have done this other sort of warfare. 00:10:53 JACK GAINES want to. So our view of warfare is like a hundred -yard dash. Wherever the two sides come to the line, shake loose, and then someone fires a gun, and then someone fires a gun, and then it's game on. To the Chinese, the war has started long ago. And you're wearing down your opponent. You're weakening his ability to resist. You're creating chaos in his own country. There's a word called entropy. Which is just breaking down. Entropic warfare is a word that 00:11:19 SPEAKER_03 sometimes gets used. For you're breaking down his ability to resist. And at the same time, of course, the Chinese are building up a military, which is very serious. 00:11:28 JACK GAINES Yes, it's not showing 00:11:33 JACK GAINES places closer to China, it's much more of an issue. Japan knows the problem they have with the People's Liberation Army. Pacific Island, Southeast Asia. You are seeing more 00:11:46 JACK GAINES Chinese presence. And the point is, when the time comes, you may not even be able to resist if the Chinese have 00:11:52 SPEAKER_03 this other 00:12:31 SPEAKER_02 That's exactly what it is. It's mental warfare. You're attacking the mind. You're attacking how people think about things. Some people use the word cognitive warfare. You're the popular word. Yeah, you're attacking the mind. And so you can see how well it worked. And the Russians had a much poorer hand to play than the Chinese do. Because we do so much business with China. And you see how hard it is to do things like ban TikTok. We can't even get that done. 00:12:33 JACK GAINES mental warfare. You're attacking the mind. You're attacking how people think about things. Some people use the 00:12:42 JACK GAINES You're the popular word. Yeah, you're attacking the mind. And so you can see how well it worked. And the Russians had a much poorer hand to play than 00:12:50 GRANT NEWSHAM the Chinese do. Because we do so much business with China. And you see how hard it is to do things like ban TikTok. We can't even get that done. 00:12:59 SPEAKER_02 We can't even get that done. 00:13:03 SPEAKER_02 Look, 72 hours, if that for the Indians do, we can do it. And you see how Chinese successfully use what they call lawfare, which is using our own legal system. And the idea is that you get proxies, influential foreigners in your target country to actually do your bidding for you. The Chinese have like five aces to play. The Russians might have won, but you can see how successful the Russians have been just with that. 00:13:04 JACK GAINES for the Indians do, we can do it. And you see how Chinese successfully use what they call lawfare, which 00:13:13 JACK GAINES the idea is that you get proxies, influential foreigners in your target country to actually do your bidding for you. The Chinese have like five aces to play. The Russians might have won, but you can see how successful the Russians have 00:13:41 SPEAKER_02 Uh -huh. Uh -huh. 00:13:46 SPEAKER_02 Well, you're right about the Russians, but the Chinese understand that the term gray zone paralyzes Americans. We have no idea what to do because of our view of warfare being until the shooting starts. That it is we're not really at war. There's still hope of working something out. 00:13:51 GRANT NEWSHAM paralyzes Americans. We have no idea what to do because of our view of warfare being until the shooting starts. That it is we're not really at war. There's still hope of working 00:14:03 SPEAKER_03 something out. 00:14:05 SPEAKER_02 That has been our rote response for all these years, is to not get the Chinese mad, don't provoke them, and we have convinced ourselves that we have to have Chinese help with fill -in -the -blank, North Korea transnational crime, nuclear weapons proliferation, climate change, and therefore we cannot challenge the PRC because we won't get their cooperation. That's what we've effectively handcuffed ourselves, but when it comes to that so -called hybrid warfare, it's not all that It's not all that complicated if you recognize what it is and how it fits into China's behavior, its strategy. But you also would do well to attract from other directions where they're particularly vulnerable. And that is where you take advantage of the fact, for example, the Chinese currency is not freely convertible, which means that outside of China, nobody really wants Chinese money. It's like the script at a... It's like the script where you can use it to buy caramel corn and go on the rides. 00:14:05 SPEAKER_03 has been our rote response for all these years, is to not get the Chinese mad, don't provoke them, and we have convinced ourselves that 00:14:14 JACK GAINES have Chinese help with fill -in -the -blank, North Korea transnational crime, nuclear weapons 00:14:22 JACK GAINES climate change, and therefore we cannot challenge the PRC because we won't get their cooperation. That's what we've effectively handcuffed ourselves, but when it comes to that so -called hybrid warfare, it's not all that It's not all that complicated if you recognize what it is and how it fits into 00:14:42 JACK GAINES its strategy. But you also would do well to attract from other directions where they're particularly vulnerable. And that is where you take advantage of the fact, for example, the Chinese currency is not freely convertible, which means that outside of China, nobody really wants Chinese money. It's like the script at a... It's like the script where you can use it to buy caramel corn and 00:15:06 SPEAKER_02 That's it. Nobody wants it. So choke that off and China's got some real problems. Another is the just thoroughgoing corruption of China's ruling class. And most of them have wealth overseas, foreign bank accounts. foreign bank accounts, relatives with green cards, relatives with green cards, some operate businesses overseas. And this is illegal. And this is illegal. 00:15:08 JACK GAINES it. So choke that off and China's got some real problems. Another is the just thoroughgoing corruption of China's ruling class. And most 00:15:19 GRANT NEWSHAM overseas, foreign bank accounts. foreign bank accounts, relatives with green cards, relatives with green cards, some operate businesses overseas. And this 00:15:31 SPEAKER_02 And this is where that really scares them. Because in 2011 or 2012, New York Times and Bloomberg actually put out some good stories about the overseas wealth of China's top people, including Xi Jinping's family. I've never seen a reaction from the Chinese like that one. This bothered them. 00:15:33 JACK GAINES scares them. Because in 2011 or 2012, New 00:15:37 SPEAKER_03 York Times and Bloomberg actually put out some good stories about the overseas wealth of China's top people, including Xi Jinping's family. 00:15:46 GRANT NEWSHAM I've never seen a reaction from the Chinese like that one. 00:15:53 SPEAKER_02 More than anything else we've ever done. That's... 00:15:53 GRANT NEWSHAM than anything 00:16:14 SPEAKER_02 One way to do it. Another way to do it. That would be a tactical thing. Say you were to release, say, every Friday. Say at 1 a .m. 1 o 'clock or whenever. 1 a .m. 1 o 'clock or whenever. 00:16:16 JACK GAINES way to do it. That would be a tactical thing. Say you were to 00:16:19 SPEAKER_03 release, say, every Friday. Say at 1 a .m. 1 o 'clock or whenever. 1 a .m. 1 o 'clock or whenever. 00:16:25 SPEAKER_02 Which of the top 50 Chinese Communist Party officials? And make sure it reached everywhere in China. The thing that the public really hates is this corruption. And by the top dogs. And that is something that really bothers them. And you note that the Chinese leadership is very willing to have the average Chinese citizen absorb any amount of punishment. And they even talk about it. 00:16:27 SPEAKER_03 Chinese Communist Party officials? And make sure it 00:16:29 GRANT NEWSHAM reached everywhere in China. The thing that the public really hates is this corruption. And by the top dogs. 00:16:38 JACK GAINES is something that really bothers them. And you note that the Chinese leadership is very willing to have the average Chinese citizen 00:16:49 JACK GAINES they even talk about it. 00:16:51 SPEAKER_02 But when it's personal, then they see it very differently. And this is one of the few ways to really make it personal for them is to capitalize on this corruption. So when we talk about... Dealing with Gray's own operations, we're probably not going to be all that successful. Because they have more ships, they can be in more places. 00:16:51 JACK GAINES when it's personal, then they see it very differently. And this is one of the few ways to really make it personal for them is to capitalize on this corruption. So when we talk about... Dealing with Gray's own operations, we're probably not going to be all that successful. Because they have more ships, they can be in more places. 00:17:14 SPEAKER_02 But expose that. They can do that. Have we made a concerted effort to expose Chinese bribery, the illicit payments, the corruption that they put into everywhere they go? Everywhere there's a Chinese presence, you have corruption of the society, the political class as well. And do we ever target that? Do we consider it a priority effort? I don't even think we consider it an effort at all. Exposure is the one thing that has a huge effect. This is why investigative journalists get big. It's why like Irish. gangsters try to murder them in Malta they get blown up because they're effective because they're effective which is the thing that makes it very hard for corruption to work and that's where I think 00:17:15 JACK GAINES can do that. Have we made a concerted effort to expose Chinese bribery, the illicit payments, the corruption that they put into everywhere they go? Everywhere there's a Chinese presence, you have corruption of the society, the political class as well. And do we ever target that? Do we consider it a priority effort? I don't even think we consider it an effort at all. Exposure is the one thing that has a huge effect. This is why investigative journalists 00:17:44 SPEAKER_03 get big. It's why like Irish. gangsters try to murder them in Malta they get blown up because they're effective because they're effective which 00:17:52 SPEAKER_02 is the thing that makes it very hard for corruption to work and that's where I think We have some real opportunities to make it very clear what's being done. And this is something that, if you expose it, you can really capitalize on it. Just make it too hard to do this. And it also gives oxygen to the honest people in a country. It gives them something to work with. It gives them something to work with. To take on these repressive regimes, these corrupt regimes, these corrupt regimes, administrations. And get rid of them and replace them with honest people. I've never met anywhere, anywhere I've been. Over the years. Where people like to be cheaters. Where people like to be cheaters. Where they like their leaders to be corrupt. I just haven't met it. I've been anywhere. I just haven't met it. I've been anywhere. It's just nothing you can do. But it's just nothing you can do. It really has an effect. And that's where I think government for sources could be effectively devoted. And particularly once you get local reporters in on it. Once you get the local. Honest locals in on it. Honest locals in on it. And that's where I think we could be very effective. Corruption, as you've mentioned, that really is the grease to everything the Chinese communists do globally. Take it away and then take away their access to dollars, convertible currency. And they've really got some problems. But they have played their hand very well today. But in some ways it's a house of cards. I don't think it's that hard to take on. But the longer you wait, the harder it gets. 00:17:52 SPEAKER_03 is the thing that makes it 00:17:54 JACK GAINES corruption to work and that's where I think We have some real opportunities to make it very clear what's being done. And this is something that, if you expose it, you can really capitalize on it. Just make it too hard to do this. And it also gives oxygen to the honest people in a country. It 00:18:16 JACK GAINES to work with. To take on these repressive regimes, these corrupt regimes, these corrupt regimes, 00:18:23 JACK GAINES them with honest people. I've never met anywhere, anywhere I've been. Over the years. Where 00:18:32 JACK GAINES I just haven't met it. I've been anywhere. I just haven't met it. I've been anywhere. It's just nothing you can do. But it's just nothing you can do. It really has an effect. And that's where I think government for sources could be effectively devoted. And particularly once you 00:18:46 GRANT NEWSHAM reporters in on it. Once you get the local. Honest locals in on it. Honest locals in on it. And that's where I think we could be very effective. 00:18:56 JACK GAINES Corruption, as you've mentioned, that really is the grease to everything the Chinese communists do globally. Take it away and then take away their access to dollars, convertible currency. And they've really got some 00:19:12 JACK GAINES today. But in some ways it's a house of cards. I don't think it's that hard to take on. But the longer you wait, the harder it 00:19:28 SPEAKER_02 In regards to U .S. policy, in policy, there really is a... a desire that the United States stays around in Asia, that maintains its military might, and is able to effectively safeguard what you call freedom consensual government. Because if you go around the region, nobody wants to be dominated by the PRC. But they do have a huge advantage, particularly economically, that they're seen by leaders and business people in a lot of these countries. That's really the source of... some wealth, some prosperity. And we would do well, for example, to see the fight as just as much an economic one as a military one. Because we could build up our military, rebuild it, and we could have 800 ships in the Navy, and still lose. If we don't fight on these other fronts, we don't want you here because we're doing too much business with China. And that's where the U .S., along with its friends, the Japanese, the Koreans, the Indians, the Australians, we would do well to operate together more and to see the economic front and the political warfare fronts as a priority effort as much, if not more, than the military. 00:19:30 SPEAKER_03 in policy, there 00:19:31 JACK GAINES really is a... a desire that the United States stays around in Asia, that maintains its military might, and is able to 00:19:45 JACK GAINES Because if you go around the region, nobody wants to be dominated by the PRC. But they do have a huge advantage, particularly economically, that they're seen by leaders and business people in a lot of these countries. That's really the source of... some wealth, some prosperity. And we would do well, for example, to see the fight as just as much an economic 00:20:09 GRANT NEWSHAM one as a military one. Because we could build up our military, rebuild it, and we could have 800 ships in the Navy, and still lose. If we don't 00:20:19 JACK GAINES on these other fronts, we don't want you here because we're doing too much business with China. And that's where the U .S., along with its friends, the Japanese, the Koreans, the Indians, the Australians, 00:20:30 GRANT NEWSHAM we would do well to operate together more and to see the economic front and the political warfare fronts as a priority effort as much, if not 00:20:40 JACK GAINES more, than the 00:20:45 SPEAKER_02 They have a role to play if they're properly harnessed. But you do know that these days you don't see the Yankee trader that used to exist. You'd run to Americans everywhere trying to sell something to do business. Not so much these days. And we've almost ceded the far -flung part to the world. Because, well, the return on investment isn't enough. That's not an attractive enough proposition. Well, then let's make it one. Plus, you do have, say, the Japanese, the Indians, who are much better at operating in these places, to put it together into a coherent plan. Understand what it is, political warfare, and not just block the Chinese political warfare effort, but actually have our own campaign. And it really is worth doing some homework, I think, for a lot of people into what political warfare is. One sees the opportunities, but it takes a certain type of person who's good at it. versus a civil affairs guy. Versus a civil affairs guy. He's going to see different... He's going to see parts of the battlefield in a different way. Yes, sometimes you want the tank. But then there's this other part of it all. That is almost like a liberal arts test. Here you have to figure out the motivations for things. You have to figure out how a society works. And then how do you appeal to it using the things that are parts of political warfare? And this is where you can really make some mileage. You've got to have both. Make no mistake. If you're not able to destroy things and kill people, the civil affairs part isn't going to get you very far. But combine the two, and then you've really got something that's very hard to take on if you're the bad guys. We talk about defending Taiwan, and how important it is, and it is, I think, indispensable, that China does not take Taiwan and enslave 23 million people. If they did that... 00:20:47 JACK GAINES they're properly harnessed. But you do know that these days you don't see the Yankee trader that used to exist. You'd run to Americans everywhere trying to sell something to do business. Not 00:20:59 SPEAKER_03 so much these days. And we've almost ceded the far -flung part to the world. Because, well, the return on investment isn't enough. That's not an attractive enough proposition. Well, then let's 00:21:10 GRANT NEWSHAM make it one. Plus, you do have, say, the Japanese, the Indians, who are much better at operating in these places, to put it together into a coherent plan. Understand what it 00:21:20 JACK GAINES is, political warfare, and not just block the Chinese political warfare effort, but actually have our own campaign. And it really is worth doing some homework, I think, for a lot of people into what political warfare is. One sees the opportunities, but it takes a certain type of person who's good at it. versus a civil affairs guy. Versus a civil affairs guy. He's going to see different... He's going to see parts of the battlefield in a different way. 00:21:50 SPEAKER_03 Yes, sometimes you want the tank. But then there's this other part of it all. That is almost like a liberal arts test. Here you have to figure 00:22:00 JACK GAINES for things. You have to figure out how a society works. And then how do you appeal to it using the things that are parts of political warfare? 00:22:10 JACK GAINES make some mileage. You've got to have both. Make no mistake. If you're not able to destroy things and kill people, the civil affairs part isn't going to get you very far. But combine the two, and then you've really got something that's very hard to take on if you're the bad guys. We talk about defending Taiwan, and how important it is, and it is, I think, indispensable, 00:22:32 GRANT NEWSHAM that China does not take Taiwan and enslave 23 million people. If they did that... 00:22:39 SPEAKER_02 Asia would turn red overnight, as every country tried to cut the best deal they could. No country anywhere on Earth would have much confidence in American promises that will protect them. But one of the ways to actually defend Taiwan is, yes, they could maybe use F -35s and long -range missiles and smart pines, etc. You do have to have all of this stuff. Is it enough, 00:22:39 GRANT NEWSHAM would turn red overnight, as every country tried 00:22:42 SPEAKER_03 to cut the best deal they could. No country anywhere 00:22:46 JACK GAINES on Earth would have much confidence in American promises that will protect them. But one of the ways to actually defend 00:22:51 GRANT NEWSHAM Taiwan is, yes, they could maybe use F -35s and long -range missiles and smart pines, etc. You do have to have all of this stuff. Is it enough, even? Particularly if the other side says, okay, we'll absorb whatever you can send at us, but you're finished. But one of the ways that... But one of the ways is to give them a free trade agreement to improve their economy to the point that the government felt like it had money to spend on defense. 00:23:02 SPEAKER_02 Particularly if the other side says, okay, we'll absorb whatever you can send at us, but you're finished. But one of the ways that... But one of the ways is to give them a free trade agreement to improve their economy to the point that the government felt like it had money to spend on defense. You get a certain confidence in the entire society when they're more prosperous. Salaries are very low in Taiwan. Make it so people feel like they've got more money. Can they can buy a house? Can they can buy a condominium? build up the economy and that has a ripple effect throughout the society and on their military itself. And yet we didn't do that. And I think that's where we should apply some effort. 00:23:11 JACK GAINES give them a free trade agreement to 00:23:16 JACK GAINES point that the government felt like it had money to spend on defense. You get a certain confidence in the entire society when they're more prosperous. Salaries are very low in Taiwan. Make it so people feel like they've got more money. Can they can buy a house? Can they can buy a condominium? 00:23:35 JACK GAINES the economy and that has a ripple effect throughout the society and on their military itself. And yet we didn't do that. And I think that's where we should apply some 00:24:25 SPEAKER_02 I think you're right. And it's essential that we start to understand. You look at much of the debate about us in China. What happens when the two forces go at each other? And that's almost like... Going up behind the Waffle House. Going up behind the Waffle House. To see who's the toughest guy in Prince William County. To see who's the toughest guy in Prince William County. Out back. But think of all the things that go into whether or not the two hoodlums. There's all sorts of reasons why. No, the

Welcome to a special bonus episode of the Lay of The Land podcast. Today, we're doing something a bit different as I take on the role of guest on other podcasts to discuss recent developments in my journey and offer a glimpse of what lies ahead.As some of you may know, I've recently embarked on a new professional path by joining the founding team of The O.H.I.O. Fund. In the near future, I'll be recording a dedicated episode to delve deeper into The O.H.I.O. Fund alongside some of my partners. In the meantime, join me in these conversations as I share my insights and experiences about transitioning to this exciting new venture, reflect on building Axuall, Lay of The Land, Cleveland, and much more!In this specific conversation, I sat down with Paul O'Connor of the Rust Belt Rundown podcast, hosted by Rust Belt Recruiting. We've actually featured Rust Belt Recruiting on Lay of The Land's 180th episode featuring Taylor Evans — so please go check out that episode if you want to hear more about Taylor Evans' journey and Rust Belt Recruiting's story!With that, please enjoy my conversation with Paul O'Connor.-----Stay up to date by signing up for Lay of The Land's weekly newsletter — sign up here.Past guests include Justin Bibb (Mayor of Cleveland), Pat Conway (Great Lakes Brewing), Steve Potash (OverDrive), Umberto P. Fedeli (The Fedeli Group), Lila Mills (Signal Cleveland), Stewart Kohl (The Riverside Company), Mitch Kroll (Findaway — Acquired by Spotify), and many more.Connect with Jeffrey Stern on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/jeffreypstern/Follow Jeffrey Stern on X @sternJefe — https://twitter.com/sternjefeFollow Lay of The Land on X @podlayofthelandhttps://www.jeffreys.page/

Please welcome Grant Newsham, retired marine colonel and author of When China Attacks, A Warning to America. Grant came on the show to discuss the state of the Japan Defense Forces and the PRC threat.  This is a two-part episode. Grant's biography: https://centerforsecuritypolicy.org/author/grant-newsham/ Book link: https://www.regnery.com/9781684513659/when-china-attacks/ A recent article: https://andmagazine.substack.com/p/the-us-in-the-pacific-getting-the?utm_source=substack&publication_id=746580&post_id=151553726&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&utm_campaign=email-share&triggerShare=true&isFreemail=true&r=ercjf&triedRedirect=true --- One CA is a product of the civil affairs association  and brings in people who are current or former military, diplomats, development officers, and field agents to discuss their experiences on the ground with a partner nation's people and leadership. We aim to inspire anyone interested in working in the "last three feet" of U.S. foreign relations.  To contact the show, email us at CApodcasting@gmail.com  or look us up on the Civil Affairs Association website at www civilaffairsassoc.org --- Special thanks to the site Cool Jazz Hot Bossa for the sample of Cool Jazz Hot Bossa. (59:00). Retrieved from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bdWUj2NYDYQ --- Transcript: (Part I) 00:00:05 JACK GAINES Welcome to the 1CA Podcast. This is your host, Jack Gaines. 1CA is a product of the Civil Affairs Association and brings in people who are current or former military, diplomats, development officers, and field agents to discuss their experiences on ground with the partner nation's people and leadership. Our goal is to inspire anyone interested in working the last three feet of foreign relations. To contact the show, email us at capodcasting@gmail.com. Or look us up on the Civil Affairs Association website at www.civilaffairsassoc.org. I'll have those in the show notes. Please welcome Grant Newsham, retired Marine Colonel and author of When China Attacks, A Warning to America. Grant came on the show to discuss the state of the Japan Defense Forces and the PRC threat. This is the first of a two-part episode, so let's get started. 00:00:56 GRANT NEWSHAM I was effectively MarforPak's guy in Asia for a number of years. which worked well in both directions. So I was obviously in Japan, but also did a lot of work for them throughout the region, Southeast Asia as well, Taiwan even, which was a lot of fun. 00:01:13 JACK GAINES Yeah. And you've become a foreign policy advocate in the area. 00:01:16 GRANT NEWSHAM Yeah. At some point, maybe seven or eight years ago, figured I'd actually done enough stuff to maybe have a few ideas. So I started writing and speak a lot as well. So I guess I'm part of the commentariat. But I seem to write about once a week some topic related to often Asian defense, but sometimes economics, politics, sometimes organized crime. And I do get invited to speak here and there and seem to get a number of television or radio interviews as well. That's really cool. I didn't say I get invited to good things, but I do get the occasional invitation. I used to think it was because I had such insight. Someone told me not all that long ago that actually, if you'll say yes to an interview, you're likely to get more of them. Because the people who book them, they just want to get somebody on. And I thought it was because of my particular wisdom. 00:02:07 JACK GAINES of my particular wisdom. 00:02:09 GRANT NEWSHAM I'm joking a little bit. But obviously, you must have something useful to say. But it is funny. There's one place in Singapore that calls me a lot. It's like their CNN. And they've been calling me. Probably eight years at least, or almost every time, I'll tell the presenters that basically they don't know what they're talking about. And I always think, well, this is the last one, but they keep calling me up. They mislike you because you're the contrarian. 00:02:34 JACK GAINES mislike you because you're the contrarian. 00:02:36 GRANT NEWSHAM Oh, I can blame things in a way that sort of suits broadcast and that sort of regular people can understand, you know, 00:02:42 GRANT NEWSHAM that sort of regular people can understand, you know, being a regular person myself. 00:02:47 JACK GAINES Yeah, you learn to disagree without offending. 00:02:49 GRANT NEWSHAM Usually. And it's always sort of a relief, actually, when you can have a different look at things. 00:02:56 JACK GAINES That's good. I always thought you were going to say it is a relief sometimes when you just peel the coat off and then yell at them. 00:03:02 GRANT NEWSHAM The facts speak for themselves. Right. And if it's a presenter, their role is different, and they will generally not have the substantive knowledge that most of the people on the show will have. Right. And so much of what I have to say is often not... in line with accepted wisdom, particularly when it comes to Japan. Sure. So it's often that I'll have to present a different take on things, but they don't seem to be offended. 00:03:27 JACK GAINES Right. You mostly talk about Japan in its current defense fashion or in its foreign policy actions. 00:03:33 GRANT NEWSHAM A lot of that because people have a perception of Japan, for example, as a pacifist country. It cannot fight. It's peace loving. Right. etc. They have a nuclear allergy. You know, just the idea of nuclear weapons in Japan is out of the question. You often hear, well, their constitution won't let them fight. And none of those things are actually true. But it's the received wisdom. It's what people think. And when you simply point out the realities of Japan, that ultimately, at the end of the day, it's a country just like every other. And that the stereotypes about it really aren't correct when it comes to defense security. In fact, they use that the Constitution won't let them have a military. You probably heard it. Yeah. That's the idea. And they don't even call it a military. But the fact is they've got a military, which, according to some ratings, is the fifth most powerful in the world. It depends on how you calculate it, of course. But they call it something else. And what is the actual distinction between offensive and defensive weapons? 00:04:35 JACK GAINES It's usually the strike space. If it's inside your own country defending, then it's a defense space. Once you go out and start taking out other people's cities and moving forces in. 00:04:44 GRANT NEWSHAM Well, for example, they don't have much what you call power projection capability very far off their borders. But they do have a submarine fleet, say over 20 submarines. There's no reason you couldn't send them to the coast of China and start sinking ships. 00:04:59 JACK GAINES True. 00:05:00 GRANT NEWSHAM They've got F -16s. You can put long -range missiles on them and you can fly out of ways and cause people a lot of trouble. But their military really, I would say, is not so good at offense. It's not so good at defense either. And that's something that comes as a surprise to a lot of people. 00:05:15 JACK GAINES Well, do they exercise defense and offense? 00:05:18 GRANT NEWSHAM Oh, they have exercises, training, and they put on a pretty good show, particularly when they have visitors come. But they really, until very recently, and even now, they can't do joint operations, which means the air, sea, and ground forces. can't operate together. In fact, they don't even have a radio with which they can communicate easily. They have to jury -rig some relations, these connections. And that's something most people don't understand, because you look at it on paper. Japan has 250 ,000 people in its military, and it's got ships, aircraft, all of it modern and good stuff. 150 ,000 people in its ground self -defense force, their army. But it's not even the sum of its whole. If you imagine each of your limbs, your arms and your legs, each doing whatever it wants without the coordinating function provided by a brain. 00:06:10 JACK GAINES Sounds like me dancing. 00:06:12 GRANT NEWSHAM It would be, yeah. I think that I can picture that, whereas I'm more of an Arthur Murray kind of guy. But it's like that. And nobody can believe that because they think, well, this is the Japanese. It's this advanced modern country, big military, the rich country. And I mean, they can't even do these simple things. Right. The short answer is no, except in some limited circumstances. After 60 years of the U .S.-Japan defense relationship, 80 years after World War II, they still cannot do some of the basic things that a military needs to do, or do them very well, put it that way. But they do train, they exercise, the personnel quality is excellent. You know, we tend to say, well, we've got Japan as our ally, Japan has a military. But the reality is that the U .S. and Japanese forces cannot work very well together. There's one exception, and that's the two navies. The U .S. Navy and the Japanese Navy, called the Maritime Self -Defense Force, they actually do work well. And they show what's doable. 00:07:15 JACK GAINES They probably do dynamic exercises as well as structured ones, so they have to change, have to practice new orders and maneuvers. 00:07:22 GRANT NEWSHAM Well, the nature of naval operations is you can go out... into the sea, and you have more freedom to actually do stuff. But part of it actually was when Admiral Arleigh Burke, who was later chief of naval operations for many years, he was in charge in Japan. He basically laid down the ground rules, which was that the American Navy was going to treat the Japanese like friends, like allies. And that set the tone for everything. So they had a more relationship of equals, people who wanted to operate together. And that is why they have a good relationship today. in my opinion. So as a result, after all these decades, the two militaries are not really very good at operating together. There's no joint headquarters. There never has been in Japan. At best, they've operated in isolation. Do they recognize they don't have a joint access? Oh, they know. The Japanese military knows this. And US Indo -PACOM has not pushed the issue. And then you had... The State Department side, on the civilian side, people saying, well, if we ask the Japanese to get better at defense matters, well, they'll get angry. And if they do, then the Chinese will be mad. So you have the U .S. on the U .S. side. We're thinking of at least 10 reasons why Japan cannot improve its defenses. That's changed enough in recent years. But you see how many decades we've lost. 00:08:51 JACK GAINES Right. I can see part of what the State Department is saying in that a lot of those countries along the Asian coast were under Japanese rule during World War II. They're concerned that by showing favor and coordinating with them in defense might offend places like the Philippines or Korea. It is a concern to be weighed, but I don't know how much weight you would put to it. 00:09:14 GRANT NEWSHAM I wouldn't give it hardly any. With the Japanese, when you actually think about it, I would say within... 30 years of the end of the war, but certainly today, and for the last at least 20 years ago. The new century. Even before that. The Japanese and World War II is not really an issue in almost all of Asia. The Chinese, of course... Play it up. That's a good way to put it. Of course, they do remember what the Japanese did, and it was barbaric. Although the Chinese Communist Party afterwards killed 50 million Chinese in peacetime and good weather, which the Imperial Japanese Army couldn't have dreamed of doing. But World War II is an issue in China. Korea as well, the relationship is dicey. Up to a point. I mean, little old ladies go and sit in front of the embassy still. 00:10:05 JACK GAINES the embassy still. 00:10:06 GRANT NEWSHAM There are, and then you just had a South Korean amphibious ship come to Yokosuka in Tokyo on a visit. In Korea, there's a fundamental sort of suspicion of the Japanese. Sometimes it is a real dislike. But most people, it's not a big issue. But except for those two countries, you go down the list in Asia, and there is no after effect of World War II. I find the Filipinos get along very well with the Japanese. The Indonesians do. They, in fact, see the Japanese as being the people who freed them from the colonial yoke. Okay. The Malays, they actually didn't have that bad a time during the occupation. The Chinese in Malaysia did. So the Malaysians don't have any really hard feelings against the Japanese. Taiwan, same thing. They've got a very good relationship. And then there's one plus billion Indians who actually have an excellent relationship with Japan and see Japan as real friends and vice versa. So you're starting to get a good chunk of Asia, which, as you can see, actually sees Japan as a good country, useful economically. It's been very generous. And they like to see a Japanese military that's strong enough, allied with the United States, able to deal with China. 00:11:27 JACK GAINES Right. And why would we have such a different balance as we do with Germany and Europe? Because no one's questioning this in Holland or in France. That's just another country. They freely trade, they freely access each other. So maybe mindset just needs to shift to say the reform of Japan is just like Germany, and we need to start treating them and partner nations the same and start advocating for a joint staff. 00:11:52 GRANT NEWSHAM And you could do that in an afternoon, but the Japanese will not speak up for themselves. And an old New York Times reporter, Richard Halloran, I remember him telling me once that all the people he ever dealt with in the world... The Japanese were the worst at explaining themselves. And there's a reticence which slows them down. But also the Americans are afraid to tell them what we need. And that is a huge problem, because if we don't tell them, the Japanese are not blind readers, and they won't do what we think we'd like them to do, but we're afraid to ask. And in fact, one of the Japanese prime ministers in 1970, so 50 -some years ago, He gave some very good advice to the Americans, and it was at the time the Americans were trying to put an aircraft carrier into Yokosuka, the naval base near Tokyo. They wanted to assign it there permanently. And the U .S. side was thinking of excuses why it was too hard for the Japanese. They'll cause political difficulties. The Japanese have an election coming up. The timing just isn't right. And finally, the Japanese side sent a message to the Americans saying, tell us what you need. And don't back down. And they said it out of exasperation, really. And it was the best advice the Americans have ever been given. And we've refused to follow it ever since then. And really, it's almost a cultural trait, sort of a Confucian system. They actually are happy to have experts tell them what they ought to do. Sure. Whereas we are more of the Socratic method. And it doesn't, it just doesn't work. That's why after all these years, the Americans and the Japanese forces, except for the navies, And except for missile defense, we really don't operate together anywhere near where we need to be. We're not even close. And another very interesting fact a lot of people don't know is the Japanese military missed its recruitment targets by about 50 % last year. 5 -0? 00:13:50 JACK GAINES -0? 00:13:50 GRANT NEWSHAM 5 -0. And it routinely misses them by 20 -25%. So this, you can see, is a problem. It's now an older force, doesn't have enough people. In order to fulfill its missions, it would probably have to be twice as big, both personnel -wise and in terms of ships and hardware. Its war stocks are basically non -existent, doesn't know anything really about casualty care, combat casualty replacements, logistics. 00:14:20 JACK GAINES Well, if the media looks down on it and the political class looks down on it, it's not going to get a lot of positivity in the public mindset. So that's got to be part of it. It's not a vote -getter to push for a strong defense. 00:14:31 GRANT NEWSHAM vote -getter to push for a strong defense. I mean, if you're a politician, no one's going to say, he's the defense guy, let's give him our vote. But people vote for other reasons. But you do get used to, after that horrific experience in World War II, that for decades people didn't want to really think about defense, and they were glad to have the Americans around to handle it, and particularly when it seemed like there wasn't any real threat anywhere. People were happy with that, and even the U .S. side. didn't mind it as well. But I'd say it should have started to change at least 20 years ago. And it didn't until maybe four or five years ago. Well, 00:15:10 JACK GAINES when did the risk indicators really start popping up with China? 00:15:14 GRANT NEWSHAM I think by... It can't be back when Nixon went. 00:15:15 JACK GAINES It can't be back when Nixon went. Well, it should have, 00:15:16 GRANT NEWSHAM it should have, you know, I think. But about 2005 is when it was obvious what was coming. 00:15:19 JACK GAINES But about 00:15:21 GRANT NEWSHAM when it was obvious what was coming. And even before that, if you knew what to look for. But as I said, some of us... We knew what needed done and what the problems were. And there were Japanese who did too. And that's why when we put together their amphibious force, it was sort of an effort to address the shortcomings in Japan's self -defense force. Also to improve the overall U .S.-Japan relationship because it was so imbalanced. Right. Where the Japanese weren't doing anything near enough to defend themselves. And that over time creates a lot of friction in a relationship. So we were trying to address that with the amphibious force, and that was 2011, which we were pretty successful at that because we didn't ask permission from anybody. I was going to say, if you were successful, 00:16:10 JACK GAINES did you get fired? 00:16:11 GRANT NEWSHAM Well, it's not that people didn't try. 00:16:11 JACK GAINES Well, it's not that people didn't try. Sorry, that was sarcastic. But I was a reservist, so they couldn't quite get a bead on me. 00:16:15 GRANT NEWSHAM I was a reservist, so they couldn't quite get a bead on me. Yeah. And didn't quite know what we were doing. And also you had people like General Gregson, who was then at... Department of Defense, who had been in Japan many years, and he knew the importance of it all. So he would provide some cover. But the real success there was because the Japanese side took the ideas and ran with it. And the Americans provided some cover and some know -how and some advice. But it was the Japanese who did that. Once the Japanese took on the mission, well, what are the Americans going to say? But I was even told that at Indo -PACOM, that there were people who gotten wind of this and were very much opposed because the idea that Japanese having an amphibious force was provocative. Not just provocative, but it was going to cause the Japanese to go on the rampage again, like in 1941. I'm not making this up. 00:17:11 JACK GAINES So when Germany starts building the Leopard 2, were they expected to go on a rampage too? 00:17:17 GRANT NEWSHAM No, those are Europeans. Oh, okay. You know how the Europeans are okay. 00:17:19 JACK GAINES okay. You know 00:17:21 GRANT NEWSHAM But the fact that Germans have been allowed back into polite society. tells you something, and the Japanese are just as deserving of it as well. 00:17:30 JACK GAINES Did you see the movie Godzilla Minus One? No. It's an interesting portrayal of post -World War II Japan. And Godzilla, which is this giant monster, comes out of the sea, tears up Japan, and has an atomic breath that shoots off nuclear explosions, which sounds a lot like the United States in a mythological way. One thing that... the show did that was interesting is it kind of engaged post -military era and had talked about it. And it seemed like it was trying to reconcile the past with now and build out a notion that the military is okay, that after the war, there were good things that happened and that we should embrace a military in the future. So there might be some societal impulses out there that are promoting and supporting a more built -up military in Japan. 00:18:24 GRANT NEWSHAM Well, you're actually right. The public at large has always been pretty supportive of the military. For example, when they have open base days, when they put on so -called firepower demonstrations, which is like an exercise you can watch where they shoot off stuff, that they're always oversubscribed. And people just pour into these things because they're interested. And the central government, or say the ruling class, are the ones who are gun -shy or... I'm really hesitant, but the public at large, you know, when you ask them, you know, should Japan have a normal military? The replies to that are like 85%. Well, yes, of course. And I think they would be horrified if they knew the actual state of the Japanese military. I mentioned this to a Japanese politician last year, and he was horrified at the idea. And the public as well would have a similar reaction. Regular Japanese people say they have a pretty good understanding of what Japan needs to do to defend itself and of the importance of having a national defense, but the government doesn't explain it very well. When they do, the reaction, there's a Japanese expression, it's called like, it's atarimae. And it means like, well, yeah. It's like, duh. 00:19:42 JACK GAINES Abnautually. And that's what it means. 00:19:42 GRANT NEWSHAM And that's what it means. Should Japan have a good defense? Atarimae. And yeah, what's the question here? But if you ask that question in the political world, then you'll get all sorts of emming and hawing. They wanted nothing of that. By the late 70s, certainly by the 90s, that they sort of outlived that. But it was comfortable to continue with it, particularly if you're the government, because you don't have to spend money on defense. And the Americans are covering that. So it was as if the Americans were giving. I'd say at least $50 billion a year in free defense coverage, at least, probably more. And, you know, if you're a government, you think, well, why should we do anything different? And so they got used to that. We got used to it. And then at some point, the friction builds up where you just can't do that. And the Japanese themselves start to be resentful. 00:20:37 JACK GAINES Right. Keeping them handicapped, probably. 00:20:40 GRANT NEWSHAM Yeah. You know, they're not letting us be self -fulfilled. I think that's sort of the marriage counselor's analysis. And so that imbalance was such that it was creating huge problems in the relationship. But the defense relationship, you know, pointing out, well, you know, you guys really aren't very good, except for the Navy. You know, and we can't work with you very well, except for the Navies. And as a result, that's why we are where we are today. By now, if we had a more sort of capable U .S.-Japan defense relationship, where the two services could... operate together, and we're conducting a joint defense of Japan and the surrounding areas, which includes, say, to Taiwan even, that that would have, I think, deterred a lot of the problems that we're having. But by pretending everything was okay, we've gotten ourselves in a position where we now face a real threat out there. And we're trying to make up for lost time. And I don't know. And I don't know which side I would bet on. I'd bet on ours because I'm an American. But that's how out of whack it has gotten. It used to be maybe till 20 years ago, we were in pretty good shape. But you can see that advantage eroding. And nowadays, depending on how a fight were to take place, if it does take place, it would be less of a sure thing than it once was. And that's, I think, putting it very nicely. 00:22:04 JACK GAINES Well, tell me about the threat. 00:22:05 GRANT NEWSHAM What are you seeing? It's China. led by the Chinese Communist Party. (Part II) 00:00:02 JACK GAINES Welcome to the 1CA Podcast. This is your host, Jack Gaines. 1CA is a product of the Civil Affairs Association and brings in people who are current or former military, diplomats, development officers, and field agents to discuss their experiences on ground with the partner nation's people and leadership. Our goal is to inspire anyone interested in working the last three feet of foreign relations. To contact the show, email us at capodcasting@gmail.com. or look us up on the Civil Affairs Association website at www.civilaffairsassoc.org. I'll have those in the show notes. Please welcome back Grant Newsham, retired Marine colonel and author of When China Attacks, A Warning to America. Grant came on the show to discuss the state of the Japanese defense forces and the PRC threat. This is the second in a two-part episode, so let's get started. 00:00:56 SPEAKER_02 It's China. led by the Chinese Communist Party. They built up a military which is just gradually but steadily expanding its reach and its coverage. And it is compared to, say, 2020, now instead of just being able to operate a little bit off their coast, they can reach Guam, Hawaii, and onwards. The Chinese military doesn't tend to develop into a force able to operate worldwide just like the U .S. can. And their ship numbers. They've got more than we do. Something like 350 versus our 290. 00:00:58 JACK GAINES the Chinese Communist Party. 00:01:06 JACK GAINES its reach 00:01:11 JACK GAINES say, 2020, now instead of just being able to operate a little bit 00:01:15 GRANT NEWSHAM off their coast, they can reach Guam, Hawaii, and onwards. The Chinese military doesn't tend to develop into a force able to operate worldwide just 00:01:25 JACK GAINES like the U .S. can. And their ship numbers. They've got more than we do. Something like 350 versus our 00:01:37 SPEAKER_02 Well, fortunately, in terms of quality, they're pretty good. And they know what they need to do, and they're getting better. For some things like carrier operations, they're not at our level yet. But if you look at the speed at which they have developed, they're in pretty good shape. But let's just say the South China Sea, which is one and a half times the size of the Mediterranean. Whenever U .S. ships go in there, and we do publicize our transits and operations and exercises, for every ship we put in there, For every ship we put in, the Chinese can match it with at least 10. And that doesn't include ground -based and air -launched anti -ship missiles, for example. So if the Chinese pick their spot, 00:01:39 JACK GAINES they're pretty good. And they know what they need to do, and they're getting better. For some things like carrier operations, they're not at our level yet. But if you look at the speed at which they have developed, they're in pretty good shape. But let's just say the South China Sea, which is one and a half times the size of the Mediterranean. 00:02:00 JACK GAINES and we do publicize our transits and operations and exercises, for every ship we put in there, For every ship we put in, the Chinese can match it with at least 10. And that doesn't include ground -based and air -launched anti -ship missiles, for example. 00:02:16 SPEAKER_02 if the Chinese pick their spot, pick their timing, I wouldn't want to be the destroyer skipper who's got 20 anti -ship missiles coming at him. 20 anti -ship missiles coming at him. And he's got eight seconds to figure out what to do. The point is they have had de facto control of the South China Sea since about seven, eight years ago. And yes, we can go in there. But once we're gone, the Chinese close back up and they've pretty much got it. Beyond that, it's harder for them, but they're steadily expanding their capability to conduct operations. It's a military that has its problems, like every military, but they are trying to correct them. They are building a military which they want to be able to defeat a country that has aircraft carriers, which is us. In many respects, they are our equals. Have you ever heard a Korean War veteran who said he wanted to fight the Chinese again? And these were Chinese. These was the Chinese of 1950s. It's a very different place today. And I'm not saying that they can't be defeated, but I'm not saying that they can't be defeated. An adversary that could give us a lot of trouble. When their intentions are to first dominate regionally and locally, and then push that farther afield to all the Pacific and beyond. And they're setting up the infrastructure worldwide with ports and airfields to do that. They're investing in long -range transports, these naval replenishment ships that you need to be able to operate the way we do, and that's their mission. And we have pretended until about 2017 that this wasn't the case. In fact, you couldn't even say China was an adversary. And guys who did, like Captain James Fennell, who was the head of intelligence at Pack Fleet. He was cashier. He was forced to retire. He was cashier. He was forced to retire. The then administration hated him and got rid of him. And that's how bad it was. And I saw this all firsthand. Experience some of it, not as bad as Captain Fennell did. So we've allowed them to build up into a military that we had better take very seriously. And the Chinese do see this as a tool for their... 00:02:16 JACK GAINES if the 00:02:17 SPEAKER_03 Chinese pick their spot, pick their timing, I wouldn't want to be the destroyer skipper who's got 20 anti -ship missiles coming at him. 20 anti -ship missiles coming at him. 00:02:28 JACK GAINES figure out what to do. The point is they have had de facto control of the South China Sea since about seven, eight years ago. 00:02:39 JACK GAINES we're gone, the Chinese close back up and they've pretty much got it. Beyond that, it's 00:02:45 SPEAKER_03 but they're steadily expanding their capability to conduct operations. It's a military that has its problems, like every military, but they are trying to correct them. They are 00:02:55 JACK GAINES a military which they want to be able to defeat a country that has aircraft carriers, which is us. In many respects, 00:03:03 JACK GAINES our equals. Have you ever heard a Korean War veteran who said he wanted to fight the Chinese again? And these were Chinese. These was the Chinese of 1950s. It's a very different place today. And I'm not saying that they can't be defeated, but I'm not saying that they can't 00:03:22 JACK GAINES a lot of trouble. When their intentions are to first dominate regionally and locally, and then push that farther afield to all the Pacific and beyond. And they're setting up the infrastructure worldwide with ports and airfields to do that. They're investing in long -range transports, these naval replenishment ships that you need to be able to operate the way we do, and that's their mission. And we have pretended 00:03:50 SPEAKER_03 until about 2017 00:03:51 GRANT NEWSHAM that this wasn't the case. In fact, you couldn't even say China was an adversary. And guys who did, like Captain James Fennell, 00:04:01 JACK GAINES who was the head of intelligence at Pack Fleet. He was cashier. He was forced to retire. He was cashier. He was forced to retire. The then administration hated him and got rid of him. And that's how bad it was. And I saw this all firsthand. Experience some of it, not as bad as Captain Fennell did. So we've allowed them to build up into a military that we had better take very seriously. And the Chinese do see this as a tool for 00:04:30 SPEAKER_02 The idea is if you have a powerful military, well, that's when you can lean on people. That's when you can intimidate people. You can dominate them. And they're happy with the psychological domination, political domination. It doesn't have to be occupying, but dominating. And they're in every field, from outer space, long -range missiles, undersea warfare, really putting a lot of effort into it. And there is a certain sort of ingenuity that goes into their operations. Well, they can't invent things. They don't develop things on their own. They just steal things. So they reverse engineer things. So they reverse engineer. 00:04:32 SPEAKER_03 well, that's when you can lean on people. That's when 00:04:39 JACK GAINES And they're happy with the psychological domination, political domination. It doesn't have to be occupying, but dominating. And they're in every field, from outer space, long -range missiles, undersea warfare, really putting a lot of effort into it. And there is a certain sort of ingenuity that goes into their operations. Well, they can't invent things. They don't develop things on their own. They just steal things. So they reverse engineer things. 00:05:09 SPEAKER_02 Well, it... You know, it's kind of true up to a point, but look at us. The Yankee ingenuity was taking stolen British technology and making it better. And so the fact they may not be as innovative as us, well, sometimes it just has to be good enough. So they've got now a military to combine with this desire for political domination as well as considering their economic power as just as important as the military. And you see how successful that has been. When you have U .S. business leaders giving Xi Jinping two standing ovations last November in San Francisco, that tells you how successful they've been on the economic front. And the Japanese know they have a huge problem. You would often hear the Japanese military saying, one thing Taiwan's defense is Japan's defense. But I've even seen the calculations they did, like at which point the Japanese Navy would be outmatched by the Chinese Navy. And they had the date almost down to when it was. And our side, we were late recognizing this. We refused to. We refused to. 00:05:11 GRANT NEWSHAM kind of true up to a point, but look at us. The Yankee ingenuity was taking stolen British technology and making it better. And so the fact 00:05:20 SPEAKER_03 be as innovative as us, well, sometimes it just 00:05:23 JACK GAINES has to be good enough. So they've got now a military to combine with this desire for political domination as well as considering their economic power as just as important as the military. And you see how successful that has been. When you have U .S. business leaders giving Xi Jinping two standing 00:05:45 JACK GAINES San Francisco, that tells you how successful they've been on the economic front. And the Japanese know they have a huge problem. You 00:05:53 SPEAKER_03 would often hear the Japanese military saying, one thing Taiwan's defense is Japan's defense. But I've even seen the calculations they did, like at which 00:06:03 JACK GAINES point the 00:06:06 JACK GAINES be outmatched by the Chinese Navy. And they had the date almost down to when it was. And our side, we were late recognizing this. We refused 00:07:18 SPEAKER_02 Yeah, as he described it well. Ultimately, the military part of the fight is extremely important. But it's almost a sideshow. But it's almost a sideshow to the other activities, the other fight that China's been waging for the last 30, 40 years, almost ever since we opened up to them. And that has been generally referred to as political warfare, with components being economic warfare, financial warfare, drug warfare, which is the word the Chinese use. So all this fentanyl that's been pumped into America for the last decade that's killed up towards a million Americans, almost all of it comes from China. And they know exactly what they're doing. And so every year they're taking like the equivalent of two or three divisions off the battlefield. You've destroyed neighborhoods. You've destroyed successful economic warfare. Drive 30 miles up the road to Baltimore. Go to Sparrows, Baltimore. Where there used to be steel mills. And now you have Amazon fulfillment sectors at best. But you've seen just the gutting of American society, the so -called working class, the Rust Belt. And this was done intentionally. And this was done intentionally. In large part, Chinese economic warfare directed at the United States. And then you have cyber warfare as well. You have cyber espionage. Well beyond what countries normally do. But they have used it very effectively. And the Chinese just... Recently put out their new fighter. That's called the J -35. That is a dig at the Americans. Because it is based on stolen blueprints for the F -35. I don't know. 00:07:20 SPEAKER_03 Ultimately, the military part of the 00:07:26 SPEAKER_03 it's almost a sideshow. 00:07:29 JACK GAINES sideshow to the other activities, the other fight that China's been waging for the last 30, 40 years, almost ever since we opened up to them. And that has been generally referred to as political warfare, with components being economic warfare, financial warfare, drug warfare, which is the word the Chinese use. So all this fentanyl that's been pumped into America for the last decade that's killed up towards a million Americans, almost all of it comes from China. And they know exactly what they're doing. And so every year they're taking like the equivalent of two or three divisions off the battlefield. You've destroyed neighborhoods. You've destroyed successful economic warfare. Drive 30 miles up the road to Baltimore. Go to Sparrows, Baltimore. Where there used to be steel mills. And now you have Amazon fulfillment sectors at best. But you've seen just the gutting of American society, the so -called working class, the Rust Belt. And this was done intentionally. 00:08:26 JACK GAINES warfare directed at the United States. And then you have cyber warfare as well. You have cyber espionage. 00:08:34 SPEAKER_03 Well beyond what countries normally do. But they have used it very effectively. And the Chinese just... Recently put out their new fighter. That's called the J -35. That is a dig at 00:08:47 GRANT NEWSHAM it is based on stolen blueprints for the F -35. 00:08:55 GRANT NEWSHAM know. It's been a while. I don't know. It's been a while. 00:09:02 SPEAKER_02 Unfortunately, Copperfish is leapfrogging over stages. Yes, it may take them a little longer, but they will popscotch through it. And so... So I take it pretty seriously. Their Y -20, their long -range transport, is basically the C -17. And they've just been immensely successful at this sort of espionage. And at the same time, we've done nothing to push back on them. Then there's the propaganda angle of this, which really good old Jesuit meaning of the word just means to explain yourself or articulate your position. So people understand that they've been very successful in getting Americans to buy the Chinese line. China's rise is peaceful. China's rise is peaceful. China's never attacked anybody. China's never attacked anybody. It's not true. All great nations do this. So who are we to complain? America has its problems, too. America has its problems, too. Who are we to complain about the Chinese taking live organs out of Uyghurs and prisoners of conscience? And we've been able to convince ourselves that we've been able to convince ourselves that we've not only can we not do anything, we shouldn't do anything. This is changing. But you can see we were very late getting started. And this has all been done without firing a shot. Chinese economic inroads, Chinese economic inroads, which leads to political influence, is in, for example, South America and Africa. Just immense how fast that has come, how solid it is. Pacific Island, something similar is going on, something similar is going on. Look at the difficulties the Germans have had, weaning themselves off of this Chinese addiction. And as a result, 00:09:03 GRANT NEWSHAM is leapfrogging over stages. Yes, it may take them 00:09:07 SPEAKER_03 but they will 00:09:09 GRANT NEWSHAM popscotch through it. And so... So I take it pretty seriously. Their Y -20, 00:09:16 JACK GAINES their long -range transport, is basically the C -17. And they've just been immensely successful at this sort of espionage. And at the same time, we've done nothing to push back on them. Then there's the propaganda angle of this, which really good old Jesuit meaning of the word just means to explain yourself or articulate your position. So people understand that they've been very successful in getting Americans to buy the Chinese line. China's rise is peaceful. China's rise is peaceful. China's never attacked anybody. China's never attacked anybody. It's not true. All great nations do this. So who are we to complain? 00:09:49 SPEAKER_03 America has its problems, too. America has its problems, too. Who are we to complain about the Chinese taking live organs out of Uyghurs and prisoners of conscience? And we've been able to 00:10:00 JACK GAINES that we've been able 00:10:00 SPEAKER_03 to convince ourselves that we've not only can we not do anything, we shouldn't do anything. This is changing. But you can see we were very late getting started. And this has all been done without firing a shot. 00:10:10 JACK GAINES Chinese economic inroads, Chinese economic inroads, which leads to political influence, is in, for example, South America and Africa. Just immense how fast that has come, how solid it is. Pacific Island, something similar is going on, something similar is going on. 00:10:27 SPEAKER_03 Look at the difficulties the Germans have had, weaning themselves off of this Chinese addiction. 00:10:34 SPEAKER_02 as a result, they have been able to improve their position politically, psychologically, economically, and they've been able to do this globally without having to use their military. 00:10:36 SPEAKER_03 their position 00:10:40 GRANT NEWSHAM and they've been able to do this globally without having to use their military. 00:10:51 SPEAKER_02 Yeah, that's the idea. Is you don't want to. So our view of warfare is like a hundred -yard dash. Wherever the two sides come to the line, shake loose, and then someone fires a gun, and then someone fires a gun, and then it's game on. To the Chinese, the war has started long ago. And you're wearing down your opponent. You're weakening his ability to resist. You're creating chaos in his own country. There's a word called entropy. Which is just breaking down. Entropic warfare is a word that sometimes gets used. For you're breaking down his ability to resist. And at the same time, of course, the Chinese are building up a military, which is very serious. Yes, it's not showing up off of San Diego just yet. But places closer to China, it's much more of an issue. Japan knows the problem they have with the People's Liberation Army. Pacific Island, Southeast Asia. You are seeing more of a Chinese presence. And the point is, when the time comes, you may not even be able to resist if the Chinese have done this other sort of warfare. 00:10:53 JACK GAINES want to. So our view of warfare is like a hundred -yard dash. Wherever the two sides come to the line, shake loose, and then someone fires a gun, and then someone fires a gun, and then it's game on. To the Chinese, the war has started long ago. And you're wearing down your opponent. You're weakening his ability to resist. You're creating chaos in his own country. There's a word called entropy. Which is just breaking down. Entropic warfare is a word that 00:11:19 SPEAKER_03 sometimes gets used. For you're breaking down his ability to resist. And at the same time, of course, the Chinese are building up a military, which is very serious. 00:11:28 JACK GAINES Yes, it's not showing 00:11:33 JACK GAINES places closer to China, it's much more of an issue. Japan knows the problem they have with the People's Liberation Army. Pacific Island, Southeast Asia. You are seeing more 00:11:46 JACK GAINES Chinese presence. And the point is, when the time comes, you may not even be able to resist if the Chinese have 00:11:52 SPEAKER_03 this other 00:12:31 SPEAKER_02 That's exactly what it is. It's mental warfare. You're attacking the mind. You're attacking how people think about things. Some people use the word cognitive warfare. You're the popular word. Yeah, you're attacking the mind. And so you can see how well it worked. And the Russians had a much poorer hand to play than the Chinese do. Because we do so much business with China. And you see how hard it is to do things like ban TikTok. We can't even get that done. 00:12:33 JACK GAINES mental warfare. You're attacking the mind. You're attacking how people think about things. Some people use the 00:12:42 JACK GAINES You're the popular word. Yeah, you're attacking the mind. And so you can see how well it worked. And the Russians had a much poorer hand to play than 00:12:50 GRANT NEWSHAM the Chinese do. Because we do so much business with China. And you see how hard it is to do things like ban TikTok. We can't even get that done. 00:12:59 SPEAKER_02 We can't even get that done. 00:13:03 SPEAKER_02 Look, 72 hours, if that for the Indians do, we can do it. And you see how Chinese successfully use what they call lawfare, which is using our own legal system. And the idea is that you get proxies, influential foreigners in your target country to actually do your bidding for you. The Chinese have like five aces to play. The Russians might have won, but you can see how successful the Russians have been just with that. 00:13:04 JACK GAINES for the Indians do, we can do it. And you see how Chinese successfully use what they call lawfare, which 00:13:13 JACK GAINES the idea is that you get proxies, influential foreigners in your target country to actually do your bidding for you. The Chinese have like five aces to play. The Russians might have won, but you can see how successful the Russians have 00:13:41 SPEAKER_02 Uh -huh. Uh -huh. 00:13:46 SPEAKER_02 Well, you're right about the Russians, but the Chinese understand that the term gray zone paralyzes Americans. We have no idea what to do because of our view of warfare being until the shooting starts. That it is we're not really at war. There's still hope of working something out. 00:13:51 GRANT NEWSHAM paralyzes Americans. We have no idea what to do because of our view of warfare being until the shooting starts. That it is we're not really at war. There's still hope of working 00:14:03 SPEAKER_03 something out. 00:14:05 SPEAKER_02 That has been our rote response for all these years, is to not get the Chinese mad, don't provoke them, and we have convinced ourselves that we have to have Chinese help with fill -in -the -blank, North Korea transnational crime, nuclear weapons proliferation, climate change, and therefore we cannot challenge the PRC because we won't get their cooperation. That's what we've effectively handcuffed ourselves, but when it comes to that so -called hybrid warfare, it's not all that It's not all that complicated if you recognize what it is and how it fits into China's behavior, its strategy. But you also would do well to attract from other directions where they're particularly vulnerable. And that is where you take advantage of the fact, for example, the Chinese currency is not freely convertible, which means that outside of China, nobody really wants Chinese money. It's like the script at a... It's like the script where you can use it to buy caramel corn and go on the rides. 00:14:05 SPEAKER_03 has been our rote response for all these years, is to not get the Chinese mad, don't provoke them, and we have convinced ourselves that 00:14:14 JACK GAINES have Chinese help with fill -in -the -blank, North Korea transnational crime, nuclear weapons 00:14:22 JACK GAINES climate change, and therefore we cannot challenge the PRC because we won't get their cooperation. That's what we've effectively handcuffed ourselves, but when it comes to that so -called hybrid warfare, it's not all that It's not all that complicated if you recognize what it is and how it fits into 00:14:42 JACK GAINES its strategy. But you also would do well to attract from other directions where they're particularly vulnerable. And that is where you take advantage of the fact, for example, the Chinese currency is not freely convertible, which means that outside of China, nobody really wants Chinese money. It's like the script at a... It's like the script where you can use it to buy caramel corn and 00:15:06 SPEAKER_02 That's it. Nobody wants it. So choke that off and China's got some real problems. Another is the just thoroughgoing corruption of China's ruling class. And most of them have wealth overseas, foreign bank accounts. foreign bank accounts, relatives with green cards, relatives with green cards, some operate businesses overseas. And this is illegal. And this is illegal. 00:15:08 JACK GAINES it. So choke that off and China's got some real problems. Another is the just thoroughgoing corruption of China's ruling class. And most 00:15:19 GRANT NEWSHAM overseas, foreign bank accounts. foreign bank accounts, relatives with green cards, relatives with green cards, some operate businesses overseas. And this 00:15:31 SPEAKER_02 And this is where that really scares them. Because in 2011 or 2012, New York Times and Bloomberg actually put out some good stories about the overseas wealth of China's top people, including Xi Jinping's family. I've never seen a reaction from the Chinese like that one. This bothered them. 00:15:33 JACK GAINES scares them. Because in 2011 or 2012, New 00:15:37 SPEAKER_03 York Times and Bloomberg actually put out some good stories about the overseas wealth of China's top people, including Xi Jinping's family. 00:15:46 GRANT NEWSHAM I've never seen a reaction from the Chinese like that one. 00:15:53 SPEAKER_02 More than anything else we've ever done. That's... 00:15:53 GRANT NEWSHAM than anything 00:16:14 SPEAKER_02 One way to do it. Another way to do it. That would be a tactical thing. Say you were to release, say, every Friday. Say at 1 a .m. 1 o 'clock or whenever. 1 a .m. 1 o 'clock or whenever. 00:16:16 JACK GAINES way to do it. That would be a tactical thing. Say you were to 00:16:19 SPEAKER_03 release, say, every Friday. Say at 1 a .m. 1 o 'clock or whenever. 1 a .m. 1 o 'clock or whenever. 00:16:25 SPEAKER_02 Which of the top 50 Chinese Communist Party officials? And make sure it reached everywhere in China. The thing that the public really hates is this corruption. And by the top dogs. And that is something that really bothers them. And you note that the Chinese leadership is very willing to have the average Chinese citizen absorb any amount of punishment. And they even talk about it. 00:16:27 SPEAKER_03 Chinese Communist Party officials? And make sure it 00:16:29 GRANT NEWSHAM reached everywhere in China. The thing that the public really hates is this corruption. And by the top dogs. 00:16:38 JACK GAINES is something that really bothers them. And you note that the Chinese leadership is very willing to have the average Chinese citizen 00:16:49 JACK GAINES they even talk about it. 00:16:51 SPEAKER_02 But when it's personal, then they see it very differently. And this is one of the few ways to really make it personal for them is to capitalize on this corruption. So when we talk about... Dealing with Gray's own operations, we're probably not going to be all that successful. Because they have more ships, they can be in more places. 00:16:51 JACK GAINES when it's personal, then they see it very differently. And this is one of the few ways to really make it personal for them is to capitalize on this corruption. So when we talk about... Dealing with Gray's own operations, we're probably not going to be all that successful. Because they have more ships, they can be in more places. 00:17:14 SPEAKER_02 But expose that. They can do that. Have we made a concerted effort to expose Chinese bribery, the illicit payments, the corruption that they put into everywhere they go? Everywhere there's a Chinese presence, you have corruption of the society, the political class as well. And do we ever target that? Do we consider it a priority effort? I don't even think we consider it an effort at all. Exposure is the one thing that has a huge effect. This is why investigative journalists get big. It's why like Irish. gangsters try to murder them in Malta they get blown up because they're effective because they're effective which is the thing that makes it very hard for corruption to work and that's where I think 00:17:15 JACK GAINES can do that. Have we made a concerted effort to expose Chinese bribery, the illicit payments, the corruption that they put into everywhere they go? Everywhere there's a Chinese presence, you have corruption of the society, the political class as well. And do we ever target that? Do we consider it a priority effort? I don't even think we consider it an effort at all. Exposure is the one thing that has a huge effect. This is why investigative journalists 00:17:44 SPEAKER_03 get big. It's why like Irish. gangsters try to murder them in Malta they get blown up because they're effective because they're effective which 00:17:52 SPEAKER_02 is the thing that makes it very hard for corruption to work and that's where I think We have some real opportunities to make it very clear what's being done. And this is something that, if you expose it, you can really capitalize on it. Just make it too hard to do this. And it also gives oxygen to the honest people in a country. It gives them something to work with. It gives them something to work with. To take on these repressive regimes, these corrupt regimes, these corrupt regimes, administrations. And get rid of them and replace them with honest people. I've never met anywhere, anywhere I've been. Over the years. Where people like to be cheaters. Where people like to be cheaters. Where they like their leaders to be corrupt. I just haven't met it. I've been anywhere. I just haven't met it. I've been anywhere. It's just nothing you can do. But it's just nothing you can do. It really has an effect. And that's where I think government for sources could be effectively devoted. And particularly once you get local reporters in on it. Once you get the local. Honest locals in on it. Honest locals in on it. And that's where I think we could be very effective. Corruption, as you've mentioned, that really is the grease to everything the Chinese communists do globally. Take it away and then take away their access to dollars, convertible currency. And they've really got some problems. But they have played their hand very well today. But in some ways it's a house of cards. I don't think it's that hard to take on. But the longer you wait, the harder it gets. 00:17:52 SPEAKER_03 is the thing that makes it 00:17:54 JACK GAINES corruption to work and that's where I think We have some real opportunities to make it very clear what's being done. And this is something that, if you expose it, you can really capitalize on it. Just make it too hard to do this. And it also gives oxygen to the honest people in a country. It 00:18:16 JACK GAINES to work with. To take on these repressive regimes, these corrupt regimes, these corrupt regimes, 00:18:23 JACK GAINES them with honest people. I've never met anywhere, anywhere I've been. Over the years. Where 00:18:32 JACK GAINES I just haven't met it. I've been anywhere. I just haven't met it. I've been anywhere. It's just nothing you can do. But it's just nothing you can do. It really has an effect. And that's where I think government for sources could be effectively devoted. And particularly once you 00:18:46 GRANT NEWSHAM reporters in on it. Once you get the local. Honest locals in on it. Honest locals in on it. And that's where I think we could be very effective. 00:18:56 JACK GAINES Corruption, as you've mentioned, that really is the grease to everything the Chinese communists do globally. Take it away and then take away their access to dollars, convertible currency. And they've really got some 00:19:12 JACK GAINES today. But in some ways it's a house of cards. I don't think it's that hard to take on. But the longer you wait, the harder it 00:19:28 SPEAKER_02 In regards to U .S. policy, in policy, there really is a... a desire that the United States stays around in Asia, that maintains its military might, and is able to effectively safeguard what you call freedom consensual government. Because if you go around the region, nobody wants to be dominated by the PRC. But they do have a huge advantage, particularly economically, that they're seen by leaders and business people in a lot of these countries. That's really the source of... some wealth, some prosperity. And we would do well, for example, to see the fight as just as much an economic one as a military one. Because we could build up our military, rebuild it, and we could have 800 ships in the Navy, and still lose. If we don't fight on these other fronts, we don't want you here because we're doing too much business with China. And that's where the U .S., along with its friends, the Japanese, the Koreans, the Indians, the Australians, we would do well to operate together more and to see the economic front and the political warfare fronts as a priority effort as much, if not more, than the military. 00:19:30 SPEAKER_03 in policy, there 00:19:31 JACK GAINES really is a... a desire that the United States stays around in Asia, that maintains its military might, and is able to 00:19:45 JACK GAINES Because if you go around the region, nobody wants to be dominated by the PRC. But they do have a huge advantage, particularly economically, that they're seen by leaders and business people in a lot of these countries. That's really the source of... some wealth, some prosperity. And we would do well, for example, to see the fight as just as much an economic 00:20:09 GRANT NEWSHAM one as a military one. Because we could build up our military, rebuild it, and we could have 800 ships in the Navy, and still lose. If we don't 00:20:19 JACK GAINES on these other fronts, we don't want you here because we're doing too much business with China. And that's where the U .S., along with its friends, the Japanese, the Koreans, the Indians, the Australians, 00:20:30 GRANT NEWSHAM we would do well to operate together more and to see the economic front and the political warfare fronts as a priority effort as much, if not 00:20:40 JACK GAINES more, than the 00:20:45 SPEAKER_02 They have a role to play if they're properly harnessed. But you do know that these days you don't see the Yankee trader that used to exist. You'd run to Americans everywhere trying to sell something to do business. Not so much these days. And we've almost ceded the far -flung part to the world. Because, well, the return on investment isn't enough. That's not an attractive enough proposition. Well, then let's make it one. Plus, you do have, say, the Japanese, the Indians, who are much better at operating in these places, to put it together into a coherent plan. Understand what it is, political warfare, and not just block the Chinese political warfare effort, but actually have our own campaign. And it really is worth doing some homework, I think, for a lot of people into what political warfare is. One sees the opportunities, but it takes a certain type of person who's good at it. versus a civil affairs guy. Versus a civil affairs guy. He's going to see different... He's going to see parts of the battlefield in a different way. Yes, sometimes you want the tank. But then there's this other part of it all. That is almost like a liberal arts test. Here you have to figure out the motivations for things. You have to figure out how a society works. And then how do you appeal to it using the things that are parts of political warfare? And this is where you can really make some mileage. You've got to have both. Make no mistake. If you're not able to destroy things and kill people, the civil affairs part isn't going to get you very far. But combine the two, and then you've really got something that's very hard to take on if you're the bad guys. We talk about defending Taiwan, and how important it is, and it is, I think, indispensable, that China does not take Taiwan and enslave 23 million people. If they did that... 00:20:47 JACK GAINES they're properly harnessed. But you do know that these days you don't see the Yankee trader that used to exist. You'd run to Americans everywhere trying to sell something to do business. Not 00:20:59 SPEAKER_03 so much these days. And we've almost ceded the far -flung part to the world. Because, well, the return on investment isn't enough. That's not an attractive enough proposition. Well, then let's 00:21:10 GRANT NEWSHAM make it one. Plus, you do have, say, the Japanese, the Indians, who are much better at operating in these places, to put it together into a coherent plan. Understand what it 00:21:20 JACK GAINES is, political warfare, and not just block the Chinese political warfare effort, but actually have our own campaign. And it really is worth doing some homework, I think, for a lot of people into what political warfare is. One sees the opportunities, but it takes a certain type of person who's good at it. versus a civil affairs guy. Versus a civil affairs guy. He's going to see different... He's going to see parts of the battlefield in a different way. 00:21:50 SPEAKER_03 Yes, sometimes you want the tank. But then there's this other part of it all. That is almost like a liberal arts test. Here you have to figure 00:22:00 JACK GAINES for things. You have to figure out how a society works. And then how do you appeal to it using the things that are parts of political warfare? 00:22:10 JACK GAINES make some mileage. You've got to have both. Make no mistake. If you're not able to destroy things and kill people, the civil affairs part isn't going to get you very far. But combine the two, and then you've really got something that's very hard to take on if you're the bad guys. We talk about defending Taiwan, and how important it is, and it is, I think, indispensable, 00:22:32 GRANT NEWSHAM that China does not take Taiwan and enslave 23 million people. If they did that... 00:22:39 SPEAKER_02 Asia would turn red overnight, as every country tried to cut the best deal they could. No country anywhere on Earth would have much confidence in American promises that will protect them. But one of the ways to actually defend Taiwan is, yes, they could maybe use F -35s and long -range missiles and smart pines, etc. You do have to have all of this stuff. Is it enough, 00:22:39 GRANT NEWSHAM would turn red overnight, as every country tried 00:22:42 SPEAKER_03 to cut the best deal they could. No country anywhere 00:22:46 JACK GAINES on Earth would have much confidence in American promises that will protect them. But one of the ways to actually defend 00:22:51 GRANT NEWSHAM Taiwan is, yes, they could maybe use F -35s and long -range missiles and smart pines, etc. You do have to have all of this stuff. Is it enough, even? Particularly if the other side says, okay, we'll absorb whatever you can send at us, but you're finished. But one of the ways that... But one of the ways is to give them a free trade agreement to improve their economy to the point that the government felt like it had money to spend on defense. 00:23:02 SPEAKER_02 Particularly if the other side says, okay, we'll absorb whatever you can send at us, but you're finished. But one of the ways that... But one of the ways is to give them a free trade agreement to improve their economy to the point that the government felt like it had money to spend on defense. You get a certain confidence in the entire society when they're more prosperous. Salaries are very low in Taiwan. Make it so people feel like they've got more money. Can they can buy a house? Can they can buy a condominium? build up the economy and that has a ripple effect throughout the society and on their military itself. And yet we didn't do that. And I think that's where we should apply some effort. 00:23:11 JACK GAINES give them a free trade agreement to 00:23:16 JACK GAINES point that the government felt like it had money to spend on defense. You get a certain confidence in the entire society when they're more prosperous. Salaries are very low in Taiwan. Make it so people feel like they've got more money. Can they can buy a house? Can they can buy a condominium? 00:23:35 JACK GAINES the economy and that has a ripple effect throughout the society and on their military itself. And yet we didn't do that. And I think that's where we should apply some 00:24:25 SPEAKER_02 I think you're right. And it's essential that we start to understand. You look at much of the debate about us in China. What happens when the two forces go at each other? And that's almost like... Going up behind the Waffle House. Going up behind the Waffle House. To see who's the toughest guy in Prince William County. To see who's the toughest guy in Prince William County. Out back. But think of all the things that go into whether or not the two hoodlums. There's all sorts of reasons why. No, there may

Things polling get right in 2024:* Trump had a chance to win the popular vote (he did)* Trump had an advantage in the Sun Belt but the races in the Rust Belt would be closer (true, Trump still won them all)* Ticket splitting is real and could save Democrats from a Senate demolition (it did)But beyond that… we have some real questions. Carl Allen believed Kamala Harris was a favorite to win the electoral college. Together we go through the results and find lessons big and small. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Our guest this week is Charlie Dreifus. Charlie is portfolio manager of the Royce Special Equity Funds, highly regarded by Morningstar's Manager Research team. Charlie was named Fund Manager of the Year by Morningstar in 2008 for his work on the Small-Cap Value US Equity Strategy, which he began running in 1998 after portfolio management stints at Lazard and Oppenheimer. Charlie's investment career began in 1968. He holds degrees from City College of New York and Baruch College.BackgroundBioRoyce Small-Cap Special Equity InvestmentSteven McBoyle, co-portfolio managerSmall-Cap Value“Small-Cap Funds Are More Promising Than They Have Been in Years. Here Are the Ones to Buy,” by Lewis Braham, Barrons.com, Oct. 11, 2023.“Why Value Veteran Charlie Dreifus Balks at Banks and Favors the Rust Belt,” by John Coumarianos, citywire.com, April 21, 2022.OtherChuck RoyceAbraham Briloff“A Conversation With Investing Legend Charlie Dreifus,” Interview with Russ Kinnel, Morningstar.com, Aug. 14, 2020.Public Company Accounting Oversight BoardTim Hipskind“Irving Kahn, Oldest Active Wall Street Investor, Dies at 109,” by Sam Roberts, nytimes.com, Feb. 26, 2015.

Join Jim and Greg as they dive into the final weekend of the campaign with two bad martinis and a three-pronged crazy one. Today, they tackle a weak October jobs report, concerning early voting trends for the GOP, and a wave of controversial statements shaping the end of the campaign.First, they are stunned by the October jobs report, which shows just 12,000 new jobs and a downward revision of 112,000 jobs for August and September. So the U.S. has lost 100,000 jobs in the past three months and the economy is still - by far - the top issue for voters. Jim also speculates on whether the looming election might be impacting these numbers.Next, after highlighting the very strong early vote numbers for the GOP in Nevada earlier this week, trends in Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Michigan now appear to be favoring Democrats. Jim takes a closer look at these patterns and considers whether party registration accurately reflects voter decisions—especially in critical Rust Belt states.Finally, they take three recent political comments and discuss how the media and opposing politicians are reacting to them. They dissect comments from Jimmy Kimmel about when Trump supporters should vote, Donald Trump's statement about Liz Cheney, and Mark Cuban alleging that Trump doesn't ever want to be around strong, intelligent women.

Will Gov. Josh Shapiro be Kamala's VP pick? A reliable source has leaked to Chris LaCavita of the Trump campaign that Kamala is poised to pick the Penssylvania governor. If so, how does that alter Kamala's strategy for the presidency? Charlie is joined by Cliff Maloney and Rich Baris to discuss battleground states, JD Vance vs. Josh Shapiro, and what the polling really reveals about Kamala Harris' chances.Support the show: http://www.charliekirk.com/supportSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.