Podcasts about Black swan

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Black swan

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Latest podcast episodes about Black swan

From the Top
Accordion Virtuoso and More

From the Top

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 1, 2025 33:20


A standout 16-year-old accordionist from Eugene, Oregon brings style and sensitivity. We meet a 17-year-old guitarist and math whiz. A teen cellist performs Villa-Lobos' Song of the Black Swan.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

PULS BIZNESU do słuchania
Kinga Nowakowska – wizjonerka, która łamie schematy. PB OUT OF THE BOX

PULS BIZNESU do słuchania

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 1, 2025 43:13


Dwa lata temu dokonała coming outu, inspirując inne liderki biznesu. Od Paryża lat 80., gdzie bez języka walczyła o przetrwanie, po stworzenie Call Center Poland w czasach bez internetu, aż po ożywienie Fabryki Norblina – droga Kingi Nowakowskiej to odwaga i wizja. Jak z marzenia o naleśnikarni na Manhattanie przeszła do sukcesów w biznesie? Dlaczego zdecydowała się na wyjście z szafy? W PB Out Of The Box Kinga opowiada o Bio Bazarze, funduszu Black Swan i łamaniu barier. Posłuchaj, jak zmienia świat!

State of Bitcoin
This is a MASSIVE Black Swan Event For Bitcoin with Wyatt O'Rouke State - Bitcoin Ep. 209

State of Bitcoin

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 31, 2025 77:03


In this video, we break down what a Black Swan Event really means, why this is MASSIVE for Bitcoin, and how it could impact the future of the entire market. Whether you're a long-term HODLer or just getting started, understanding this Black Swan Event for Bitcoin is critical. Could this be the moment that sets Bitcoin on an unstoppable path? Let's dive in. Please Like, Share, and Subscribe to my channel!

Crazy Wisdom
Episode #484: Pirates, Black Swans, and Smart Contracts: Rethinking Insurance in DeFi

Crazy Wisdom

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 29, 2025 54:40


In this episode of Crazy Wisdom, host Stewart Alsop sits down with Juan Samitier, co-founder of DAMM Capital, for a wide-ranging conversation on decentralized insurance, treasury management, and the evolution of finance on-chain. Together they explore the risks of smart contracts and hacks, the role of insurance in enabling institutional capital to enter crypto, and historical parallels from Amsterdam's spice trade to Argentina's corralito. The discussion covers stablecoins like DAI, MakerDAO's USDS, and the collapse of Luna, as well as the dynamics of yield, black swan events, and the intersection of DeFi with AI, prediction markets, and tokenized assets. You can find Juan on Twitter at @JuanSamitier and follow DAMM Capital at @DAMM_Capital.Check out this GPT we trained on the conversationTimestamps00:05 Stewart Alsop introduces Juan Samitier, who shares his background in asset management and DeFi, setting up the conversation on decentralized insurance.00:10 They discuss Safu, the insurance protocol Juan designed, and why hedging smart contract risk is key for asset managers deploying capital in DeFi.00:15 The focus shifts to hacks, audits, and why even fully audited code can still fail, bringing up historical parallels to ships, pirates, and early insurance models.00:20 Black swan events, risk models, and the limits of statistics are explored, along with reflections on Wolfram's ideas and the Ascent of Money.00:25 They examine how TradFi is entering crypto, the dominance of centralized stablecoins, and regulatory pushes like the Genius Act.00:30 DAI's design, MakerDAO's USDS, and Luna's collapse are explained, tying into the Great Depression, Argentina's corralito, and trust in money.00:35 Juan recounts his path from high school trading shitcoins to managing Kleros' treasury, while Stewart shares parallels with dot-com bubbles and Webvan.00:40 The conversation turns to tokenized assets, lending markets, and why stablecoin payments may be DeFi's Trojan horse for TradFi adoption.00:45 They explore interest rates, usury, and Ponzi dynamics, comparing Luna's 20% yields with unsustainable growth models in tech and crypto.00:50 Airdrops, VC-funded incentives, and short-term games are contrasted with building long-term financial infrastructure on-chain.00:55 Stewart brings up crypto as Venice in 1200, leading into reflections on finance as an information system, the rise of AI, and DeFi agents.01:00 Juan explains tokenized hedge funds, trusted execution environments, and prediction markets, ending with the power of conditional markets and the future of betting on beliefs.Key InsightsOne of the biggest risks in decentralized finance isn't just market volatility but the fragility of smart contracts. Juan Samitier emphasized that even with million-dollar audits, no code can ever be guaranteed safe, which is why hedging against hacks is essential for asset managers who want institutional capital to enter crypto.Insurance has always been about spreading risk, from 17th century spice ships facing pirates to DeFi protocols facing hackers. The same logic applies today: traders and treasuries are willing to sacrifice a small portion of yield to ensure that catastrophic losses won't wipe out their entire investment.Black swan events expose the limits of financial models, both in traditional finance and crypto. Juan pointed out that while risk models try to account for extreme scenarios, including every possible tail risk makes insurance math break down—a tension that shows why decentralized insurance is still early but necessary.Stablecoins emerged as crypto's attempt to recreate the dollar, but their design choices determine resilience. MakerDAO's DAI and USDS use overcollateralization for stability, while Luna's algorithmic model collapsed under pressure. These experiments mirror historical monetary crises like the Great Depression and Argentina's corralito, reminding us that trust in money is fragile.Argentina's history of inflation and government-imposed bank freezes makes its citizens uniquely receptive to crypto. Samitier explained that even people without financial training understand macroeconomic risks because they live with them daily, which helps explain why Argentina has some of the world's highest adoption of stablecoins and DeFi tools.The path to mainstream DeFi adoption may lie in the intersection of tokenized real-world assets, lending markets, and stablecoin payments. TradFi institutions are already asking how retail users access cheaper loans on-chain, showing that DeFi's efficiency could become the Trojan horse that pulls traditional finance deeper into crypto rails.Looking forward, the fusion of AI with DeFi may transform finance into an information-driven ecosystem. Trusted execution environments, prediction markets, and conditional markets could allow agents to trade on beliefs and probabilities with transparency, blending deterministic blockchains with probabilistic AI—a glimpse of what financial Venice in the information age might look like.

One of Us
Highly Suspect Reviews: Caught Stealing

One of Us

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 28, 2025 33:37


CAUGHT STEALING MOVIE REVIEW Director/writer Darren Aronofsky is known for making really intense and usually very surreal films, like Requiem for a Dream, Black Swan, and Mother!. Sometimes he chills a bit to focus on telling a great character based story like in The Wrestler. Caught Stealing is a bit of an oddball choice for […]

HABLANDO DE CINE CON
HDC #154 DARREN ARONOFSKY | BLACK SWAN , REQUIEM POR UN SUEÑO Y MÁS

HABLANDO DE CINE CON

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 28, 2025 41:02


Cinéfilos, hoy tengo el honor de recibir a uno de los directores más importantes de Hollywood. Un cineasta que, desde la década de los 90, ha sabido combinar una estética visual inconfundible con st capacidad única para llevarnos a los rincones más profundosa y oscuros de la mente humana.Darren Aronofsky nació para te cd ft contar historias que cambian tu química cerebral por completo. Con

Ballet Help Desk
Lauren Fadeley-Veyette: Life on the Set of Black Swan

Ballet Help Desk

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 27, 2025 59:37 Transcription Available


When the Oscar-winning film Black Swan hit theaters, audiences were captivated by its haunting portrayal of the ballet world. In this episode, former professional dancer Lauren Fadeley-Veyette shares her experience being cast in the movie and takes us inside the rehearsal studio and film set. She reflects on working alongside Hollywood stars, the unique challenges of filming ballet on camera, and why she thinks the movie still resonates years later. Links: Shop Our Back to Dance Guide Buy Corrections Journals Support Ballet Help Desk Instagram: @BalletHelpDesk Facebook: BalletHelpDesk Music from #Uppbeat: https://uppbeat.io/t/ian-aisling/new-future License code: MGAW5PAHYEYDQZCI

Combinate Podcast - Med Device and Pharma
203 - Drug Delivery, Platforms, IP Battles, Supply Chain Risks with Jim Collins

Combinate Podcast - Med Device and Pharma

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 27, 2025 45:50


In this episode of Let's Combinate, Subhi Saadeh sits down with Jim Collins, a leader in drug delivery with over 30 years of experience at Eli Lilly, Sanofi, and now as an advisor and board member. Jim shares the history of combination products before the term even existed, from insulin pens in the 1990s to modern platforms and on-body injectors. We cover IP battles that reshaped the industry, supply chain risks that pharma still underestimates, and why platform strategy is one of the most important decisions a company can make today.Timestamps:00:00 – Introduction & Guest Welcome02:00 – Building Lilly's device organization and launching insulin pens06:00 – Early “wild west” days of drug delivery vs. today's structure07:00 – Intellectual property as a competitive weapon10:30 – How Lilly, Novo, and Sanofi shaped the IP landscape13:00 – Device differentiation in the generic space17:00 – Portfolio vs. molecule decisions in platform strategy20:00 – Three reasons to develop your own platform23:00 – Supply chain risk and geopolitical considerations26:00 – Black Swan risks and lessons for pharma companies28:00 – Strategic suppliers vs. transactional vendors33:00 – Drug-device integration inside companies37:00 – Building organizational capability and governance38:00 – Future trends: large volume autoinjectors and connected devices43:00 – Impact of tariffs and supply chain positioning45:00 – Where to find Jim CollinsGuest Bio:Jim Collins is a veteran of the drug delivery field with more than 30 years of leadership experience. At Eli Lilly, he built and led the device organization, overseeing the launch of insulin pens, the Forteo Pen, and the Trulicity platform. Later, at Sanofi, he led drug delivery innovation and platform development, including devices for Dupixent. Today, Jim serves as a board member for Enable Injections and advises startups, helping the next generation of innovators navigate IP, supply chain, and platform strategy.Subhi Bio:Subhi Saadeh is a Quality Professional and host of Let's Combinate. With a background in Quality, Manufacturing Operations, and R&D, he has worked in large medical device and pharma organizations to support the development and launch of hardware devices, disposable devices, and combination products for vaccines, generics, and biologics. Subhi serves as International Committee Chair for the Combination Products Coalition (CPC), as a member of ASTM Committee E55, and previously on AAMI's Combination Products Committee. For questions, inquiries, or suggestions, visit letscombinate.com or connect on LinkedIn.

You Need To See This!
Splitsville (2025)

You Need To See This!

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 26, 2025 88:23


On this episode, Cozi tells Bri about the hilarious comedy Splitsville (2025) from Michael Angelo Covino and Kyle Marvin, the filmmakers behind 2019's The Climb!Also, Cozi watched Black Swan and Bri watched The Climb! Hear our thoughts about both of 'em!Recommendations:⁠⁠Bri⁠⁠⁠⁠ – Try out the social music game Music League (via browser extension/app)Cozi – The film The Climb (2019)

Happy Sad Confused
Darren Aronofsky, Vol. II

Happy Sad Confused

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 25, 2025 44:10


Darren Aronofsky's films (REQUIEM FOR A DREAM, BLACK SWAN) have been a lot of things but fun probably isn't the first word that comes to mind. Now with CAUGHT STEALING he's using his powers for a different cause. He joins Josh to chat about his journey from provocateur to his latest film. Check out the ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Happy Sad Confused patreon here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠! We've got discount codes to live events, merch, early access, exclusive episodes, video versions of the podcast, and more! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Talkin' TV
Talkin' Lost Episode 48 - Every Man for Himself (plus Caught Stealing)

Talkin' TV

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 25, 2025 28:50


In this episode, we dive deep into Lost Season 3, Episode 4: “Every Man for Himself.” Sawyer takes center stage in one of the most brutal and revealing episodes yet, as he finds himself at the mercy of the Others—literally. We break down the layered manipulation tactics of Ben, explore the psychological warfare that defines this chapter, and unpack how this episode reframes Sawyer's character through flashbacks and pain. Jack's moral conflict and Desmond's eerie premonitions also get the spotlight as we explore the shifting power dynamics across the island.Then, in the second half of the pod, we shift gears to something equally intense but far more surreal: Darren Aronofsky's new film Caught Stealing. Based on Charlie Huston's noir crime novel, this gritty, hallucinatory thriller stars Austin Butler as a washed-up former ballplayer dragged into a spiral of violence in 1990s NYC. Zoë Kravitz brings her signature edge as a mysterious ally with motives of her own, while Matt Smith delivers a chilling performance as a sadistic gangster who's not nearly as scary as he looks. We'll explore how Aronofsky's fever-dream direction collides with pulp noir to create what might be his most accessible—and twisted—film since Black Swan.Join us for a ride through mind games, moral ambiguity, and cinematic madness.

Inside Marvel: An MCU Podcast
Avengers Doomsday: Doctor Doom Building A TEAM? | Marvel Sneak Peek

Inside Marvel: An MCU Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 24, 2025 41:57


Who will be on Doctor Doom's team in Doomsday? Welcome back to Marvel Sneak Peek! In this episode, Erik Voss and Jessica Clemons look at the latest rumors that characters like Doctor Strange and Clea could be serving Doctor Doom in Doomsday… part of the Black Swans? Join the NR Underground for exclusive audio shows: https://nrunderground.supercast.com Check out our merch! http://www.NerdRiot.shop Follow New Rockstars​: TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@newrockstars_official Instagram: ​https://instagram.com/newrockstars Facebook: ​https://facebook.com/newmediarockstars Twitter: ​https://twitter.com/newrockstars Written by: Erik Voss, Jessica Clemons, Gina Ippolito Head of Content & Executive Producer: Erik Voss General Manager: Zach Huddleston Head of Production: John Costa Director of Programming: Brandon Barrick Senior Producer: Jessica Clemons Producer: Gina Ippolito Staff Editors: Abby Freel, Brian M Kim, Joshua Steven Hurd Studio Tech: Brian M Kim For business inquiries please contact business@nrdigitalstudios.com Eat smart at https://factormeals.com/NEWROCKSTARS50OFF and use code NEWROCKSTARS50OFF to get 50 percent off plus FREE shipping on your first box. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Palisade Radio
Michael Kao: What Peace Black Swans and Fiscal Red Bull Mean for America’s Future

Palisade Radio

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 22, 2025 73:31


Tom Bodrovics welcomes Michael Kao to the show. Michael Kao is Private Family Office Investor & Author - Former Hedge Fund Manager & Commodities Trader. In this comprehensive discussion, Kao provides an in-depth analysis of the Trump 2.0 economic strategy, focusing on several key policy initiatives designed to reshape the United States' economic trajectory. He describes the current approach as navigating an "asteroid field" with strategic policy levers aimed at addressing significant economic challenges, including massive deficits, global conflicts, and critical dependencies on adversarial nations. Kao highlights four primary policy initiatives: tariffs and economic statecraft, redirecting fiscal spending, managing inflation, and containing internal and external threats. A critical component of this strategy involves what he calls a "reverse Marshall Plan," where other countries and private industries shoulder fiscal responsibilities traditionally borne by the US government. This approach could potentially redirect billions of dollars in spending through trade deals, NATO commitments, and corporate reshoring initiatives. The discussion extensively explores potential deflationary mechanisms within the policy framework, including strategic tariffs, oil price management, and potential productivity gains from AI and deregulation. Kao suggests that these policies could create a "disinflationary growth" scenario, potentially allowing the US to grow its way out of its current debt challenges. Kao remains cautiously optimistic about the United States' economic future, emphasizing the importance of maintaining these strategic initiatives beyond the current presidential cycle. He believes the US has significant untapped potential on its balance sheet and that the current approach could create more favorable long-term economic conditions. The conversation also touches on geopolitical dynamics, including potential shifts in Middle Eastern relationships, China's economic challenges, and the importance of creating sustainable economic conditions that don't rely on short-term monetary manipulations. Ultimately, Kao presents a nuanced view of the current economic strategy, arguing that bold, potentially controversial initiatives might be necessary to break the US out of its current low-volatility "death spiral" and create more positive economic outcomes.

The Daily Quiz Show
Entertainment, Society and Culture | In the Abrahamic scriptures, who asked Pharaoh to let his people go? (+ 7 more...)

The Daily Quiz Show

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 22, 2025 8:17


The Daily Quiz - Entertainment, Society and Culture Today's Questions: Question 1: In the Abrahamic scriptures, who asked Pharaoh to let his people go? Question 2: Name the movie that matches the following plot summary: 'A stranger joins forces with a desperado to protect a widow from an assassin.' Question 3: Which of these religions originated in Japan? Question 4: Which actress has acted in both That '70s Show and Black Swan? Question 5: Who is the Roman goddess of destiny? Question 6: What word is used for Germany's main highways? Question 7: Which actress featured in films including Men in Black 3 and Love Actually? Question 8: Name the movie that matches the following plot summary: 'The lives of mob hitmen, a boxer, a gangster and his wife, and a pair of bandits intertwine in four tales.' This podcast is produced by Klassic Studios Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

YourClassical Daily Download
Heitor Villa-Lobos: Song of the Black Swan

YourClassical Daily Download

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 19, 2025 2:49


Heitor Villa-Lobos: Song of the Black SwanPhilippe Honore, violinAlison Nicholls, harpMore info about today's track: Naxos 8.557765Courtesy of Naxos of America Inc.SubscribeYou can subscribe to this podcast in Apple Podcasts, or by using the Daily Download podcast RSS feed.Purchase this recordingAmazon

The Cybersecurity Defenders Podcast
#238 - Defender Fridays: Building trusted ecosystems for incident response with Dr. Mike Saylor, CEO of Blackswan Cybersecurity

The Cybersecurity Defenders Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 15, 2025 31:25


Christopher Luft, Co-Founder and CCO of LimaCharlie, and Dr. Mike Saylor, CEO of Blackswan Cybersecurity, sat down with the Defender Fridays community for Black Hat week wrap up and a deep dive building secure environments for IR.Dr. Mike Saylor is an accomplished, outcome-driven and solution-focused business professional and entrepreneur with 30+ years of Consulting, IT Audit & Risk, Cyber Security & Incident Response experience. Uniquely qualified as a leader with a solid knowledge of operations, strategy and management, Dr. Mike has enjoyed repeated success guiding highly skilled, cross functional teams in areas of intelligence, security, technology, and audit & compliance. Dr. Mike is an experienced public speaker, writer, and researcher on topics of technology, security, and cybercrime. He stays current with changes in the industry through professional affiliations and continuing professional development. Learn more about Blackswan Cybersecurity at blackswan-cybersecurity.comOn Defender Fridays we delve into the dynamic world of information security, exploring its defensive side with seasoned professionals from across the industry. Our aim is simple yet ambitious: to foster a collaborative space where ideas flow freely, experiences are shared, and knowledge expands.Join the live discussions by registering at limacharlie.io/defender-fridays

Financial UX Design Podcast by UXDA
#79 The Black Swan of Digital Banking

Financial UX Design Podcast by UXDA

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 15, 2025 15:14


What happens when the banking world is hit by a “Black Swan” event?In this episode of the UXDA Podcast, we explore how unpredictable, high-impact shifts—like the digitalisation boom—caught many banks off guard, radically transforming customer expectations for speed, personalisation, and seamless service.We uncover why many institutions responded with surface-level fixes instead of full-scale transformation—widening the gap between what customers want and what banks deliver.Looking ahead, the rise of AI could be the next Black Swan, reshaping the industry once again. Discover what it takes to build antifragility—the ability to adapt, innovate, and thrive in the face of disruption.Find out:How past Black Swan events reshaped digital banking expectationsWhy AI could be the next game-changing disruptionPractical strategies for bridging the gap between customer needs and current offeringsRead the full article on UXDA's blog: https://theuxda.com/blog/black-swan-digital-banking-how-tech-shifts-disrupt-finance* AI podcast on UXDA article powered by Google NotebookLM

Data Driven
Dr Mike Orkin on Blackjack, Lightning, and Apophenia: The Surprising Psychology of Probability

Data Driven

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 12, 2025 68:07


On this episode of Data Driven, we're shuffling up some probability, statistics, and a bit of Las Vegas magic with Dr. Michael Orkin—a renowned statistician, data scientist, and former advisor to casino odds makers. Hosts Andy Leonard, Frank La Vigne, and BAILeY dig into the fascinating numbers behind games of chance, uncovering why the house almost always wins and how our brains are wired to find patterns—sometimes where none exist.Whether you're a data enthusiast, a casual gambler wondering why your lucky streak never lasts, or just curious about how randomness, probability, and big jackpots work, this episode has you covered. Dr. Orkin breaks down concepts like the house edge, expected value, card counting, the allure (and statistical pitfalls) of lottery tickets, and the psychology driving “hot” and “due” gambling strategies. Plus, he weighs in on lightning strikes, Black Swan events, correlation and causation, and the curious human habit of seeing connections in random outcomes.So, get ready for a lively conversation that reminds us data is everywhere—especially where stakes are high and luck seems just out of reach. Whether you're here for probability puns, real-world math, or the stories Vegas doesn't want you to know, this is one episode you won't want to miss!LinksThe Story of Chance https://amzn.to/45qOe8x Dr Mike's Substack https://drmikeorkin.substack.com/Moments00:00 Casino House Edge Explained08:54 "Random Chance and Unlikely Events"12:03 Justifying Buying Lottery Tickets16:58 "SBF: Crypto King Unraveled"26:34 Lightning Strike Probability Calculation Issues32:26 Average Beyond Desk Boundaries33:26 "Defining Accident Prone"39:31 Misjudging Odds with Normal Curve45:50 Avoiding Lightning Strikes: Bay Area55:11 Casino Mind Games Experience56:20 Roulette Betting Strategies: Apophenia01:03:33 "Dr. Orkin's Website & Substack"01:07:19 "Probability and the House Edge"

Habits 2 Goals: The Habit Factor® Podcast with Martin Grunburg | Goal Achievement, Productivity & Success – Simplified

On July 8th, in what can only be described as an act of reckless clarity, we published a white paper (grab it here—>) Unified Behavioral Model™ — Read more… listen now.Subscribe now“Science may be described as the art of systematic oversimplification.” ― Karl PopperWhat makes UBM so unique—so different from prevalent behavioral models?First, let's clear up a common misconception:UBM—specifically the Behavior Echo-System (BES)—is a model of behavior, not a model of a person.People often see the graphic and assume it represents themselves, or a diagram of the human body. It doesn't.As Dr. Popper's statement above suggests, UBM simply articulates how behavior is influenced in the moment and shaped over time—within the system.Now, here's the B.I.G. claim:UBM is falsifiable.In science, that's the gold standard.(Period.)If a theory can't be tested or broken, it's just storytelling. Worse yet, Karl Popper would say it's non-science.What's his core claim? Science and non-science are divided by a single demarcation: Falsifiability.UBM asks—check that, insists—“Go for it… Please try to break me.”Apparently, no other behavior model—certainly not a unified one—has ever done that.Kind of interesting? Maybe just a bit?Worth mentioning, at least?Or dedicating, I don't know… twenty-plus years to uncovering?UBM/BES Comparison Table & Major Prevalent Models as provided by DeepSeek.According to Dr. Karl Popper—and as noted in the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, “Karl Popper is generally regarded as one of the greatest philosophers of science of the twentieth century”—if a theory can't be tested (or broken), it's just storytelling. Worse, he'd call it “non-science.”Just to be clear: that's Dr. Popper, philosopher and trained psychologist, who introduced the idea of falsifiability (and gave us that delightful bit with the Black Swan).So yeah—if you can't at least attempt to break it, he says, it doesn't count.UBM is so confident in its falsifiability that it's offering a $1,000 reward to the first person to prove there's a missing fifth element—one that isn't reducible or emergent. (See below and bottom for official entry details.)So far: nearly 500 downloads and…Nada. Zip. Zilch. NOTHING.Even the world's top AIs—ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, Grok, DeepSeek—took their shots.They've all struck out. Attempts include: Time (environmental), Consciousness (emergent from the system), Willpower (embodied environment), Self-Organization (embodied environment—note the “self” in self-organization).The list goes on, and it's kind of funny. Google's Gemini, for example, offered a “someday” quantum property we don't even know of yet.Seriously.Just to be clear: if we don't know of it yet, and we can't test it—it's not a valid fifth element.DeepSeek's parting words? Also comical...“UBM 1. DS 0... Game respects game.”And, here's Gemini's best response after half dozen attempts…Gemini tries desperately to break the Unified Behavior Model and fails.The difficulty in falsification, as intended by the model's design, is a powerful indicator of its conceptual strength and it's potential to serve as a TRULY UNIFYING FRAMEWORK FOR BEHAVIORAL SCIENCE. ~Gemini 8/4/2025Some have argued, “Well, UBM is overly simplified.”Really?Then why hasn't anyone discovered it before—or more accurately, uncovered it and brought it to light?Surely, by now—150 years in—some behavioral scientist, somewhere in the world, would've presented this kind of systematic “oversimplification,” right?Let's go over that one more time:“Science may be described as the art of systematic oversimplification.” ― Karl PopperThis is precisely Dr. Popper's point: science progresses by oversimplifying—systematically.Voila: UBM.

Radio Crystal Blue
Radio Crystal Blue 8/2/25 part 1

Radio Crystal Blue

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 2, 2025 167:47


Robin Aigner 'Coney Island Ride" - VolksingerCarrie Elkin & Danny Schmidt "Longing Makes The Wave" - For Keeps www.carrieelkin.com www.dannyschmidt.com Brett Dennen "Desert Sunrise" s/t www.brettdennen.live Sam Weber "los-angeles-ca.cloud" - Shape Confused Cowboy Be You www.samweber.fun Blue Haiu "Light Of A Thousand Suns" - Heat Beneath The Waves Lucy Kaplansky "Last Days Of Summer" - The Lucy Story www.lucykaplansky.com ******************************Jess Klein "Overcome" - When We Rise www.jessklein.com Jaimee Harris "Boomerang Town" - Boomerang Town www.jaimeeharris.comOrdinary Elephant "Rust Right Through" - Honest www.ordinaryelephant.net Justine Giles "Past Life" wwww.justinegiles.com Drea Lake "4U" www.drealake.com Malia Rogers "Stay" - Chameleon www.maliarogers.com Shotgun Curly "My Boyfriend's Name Is Brooklyn" www.shotguncurly.com Deni Bonet "Raise The Roof" - Bright Shiny Objects www.denibonet.com ***********************Daniella Binyamin "Jungle" - Poetry 1992 Sabina Chantouria "Changes" www.sabinachantouria.com Reaven "Free Your Mind" www.reavenmusic.net Pink Turns Blue "Fighting For The Right Side" - Black Swan www.pinkturnsbluetour.com Boneheads "Lonesome Cowboy" www.theboneheads.ca Redwood City "Kept In Mind" www.redwoodcity.co.uk **********************Dead Reynolds "Parasite" www.deadreynoldsband.co.uk Youth Killed It "Johnny Bravado" www.youthkilledit.com Tenderhooks "Gone Way Out East" www.tenderhooks.co.uk The Chiefs "Jeffrey" - s/t Sorry X "R U DWN" www.sorryxmusic.com *************************John McCutcheon "Ms St. Louis" - Field Of Stars www.folkmusic.com The Kennedys "Little Green Bottles" - Headwinds www.kennedysmusic.comBuskin & Batteau "Living On The Edge Of Dreams" - Red Shoes and Golden Hearts www.buskinandbatteau.com SONiA disappear fear "Farmland and the Sky" - Broken Film www.soniadisappearfear.com Jesse Terry "Gunpowder Days" - Arcadia www.jesseterrymusic.com Sam Robbins "Another Wall To Build" - Bigger Than In Between www.samrobbinsmusic.com Goldpine "About Tomorrow" - Two www.goldpinemusic.com

Secret Movie Club Podcast
SMC Pod #190: The Children of Caligari-Persona, 3 Women, Mulholland Drive

Secret Movie Club Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 1, 2025 45:56


1920's German expressionist The Cabinet of Dr. Caligari did more than inspire a whole kind of cinema-it also became the great-grandparent of a genre. The mind-bending dive into the psyche genre that saw three of its greatest examples all influence each other: Ingmar Bergman's 1966 Persona which begat in many ways Robert Altman's 1977 3 Women. And all those movies consciously or unconsciously begat David Lynch's 2001 masterpiece Mulholland Drive. Secret Movie Club founder.programmer Craig Hammill takes a look at the journey of inspiration of all these movies as well as side trips to other great examples of the genre like David Fincher's Fight Club, Roman Polanski's Repulsion, and Darren Aronovsky's Black Swan. 

Coffee with Samso
Coffee with Samso - An Emerging Gold Mining Story | Horizon Minerals Limited (ASX : HRZ)

Coffee with Samso

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 31, 2025 38:50


Coffee with Samso Episode 207 is all about a company that is feeling left behind in the midst of a unprecedented gold price rush. Gold miners, the producing companies on the ASX, are all buoyant and experiencing an emotional high on valuation. Shareholders are in a state of euphoria but in the rush, there are always some hidden value. The hidden value that is typically brushed aside by the juggernaut of cash producing gold miners speeding past the sights of investors. The big question that this episode of Coffee With Samso is addressing is whether Horizon Minerals Limited is that hidden value that astute investors should be looking at as a potential investment? Coffee with Samso: Building a Gold Company from the Ground Up. Guest: Grant Haywood, Managing Director & CEO – Horizon Minerals Ltd (ASX: HRZ) Location: UWA Club, Crawley, WA Introduction In this episode of Coffee with Samso, we sit down with Grant Haywood, an experienced mining engineer and the driving force behind Horizon Minerals Ltd (ASX: HRZ). With over 30 years of experience in the gold mining sector, Grant walks us through the evolution of Horizon Minerals from a small-scale developer into an emerging mid-tier gold producer in Western Australia's Eastern Goldfields. Horizon's Journey: From Merger to Momentum - A Gold mining Story. Horizon was born from the 2019 merger of Intermin Resources and MacPhersons Resources. This strategic consolidation, followed by subsequent acquisitions—most notably Greenstone Resources and Poseidon Nickel's Black Swan plant—has expanded the company's resource base to over 1.8 million ounces of gold. Today, Horizon is producing gold from two key cornerstone projects—Booraara and Burbanks—through third-party processing facilities while preparing its own Black Swan plant for refurbishment and restart in 2026. Key Highlights from the Conversation Producing Now, Building for Tomorrow - Horizon is already generating revenue from Booraara (processed at Paddington) and Phillips Find (processed at FMR's Greenfields plant). This cash flow helps reduce the capital needed for restarting their own plant. Undervalued in the Market? - At a market cap of ~$125M and a resource base of 1.8Moz, Horizon appears undervalued compared to peers—especially as it is already producing and generating cash flow. The Path to 100,000oz per Annum - With aspirations of reaching 100koz/year by late 2026, Horizon plans to use its own refurbished plant at Black Swan (acquired from Poseidon) to process ore from Booraara, Burbanks, and other satellite projects. Drilling to Grow: Burbanks in Focus - A major 30,000m drill campaign is underway at Burbanks, split evenly between infill and extensional targets. Only 25% of the current resource is in the Indicated category, so the objective is to upgrade classification and build reserves for future feed. The Silver Option – Nimbus - The Nimbus silver-zinc project (20Moz Ag, 104kt Zn) is a long-term optionality play. Environmental cleanup has been completed, and reclassification of the site is expected soon. Once permitted, a flotation circuit at Black Swan could enable cost-effective processing if silver prices justify it. Strategic Land Position - Horizon holds over 1,300km² of tenements around Kalgoorlie and Coolgardie. With ~$5M in annual expenditure commitments, the company continues to evaluate M&A opportunities and potential divestments. Near-Term News Flow Infill & extensional drill results from Burbanks September quarter cash flow from current production Black Swan plant refurbishment PFS (due Q4 CY2025) Mining studies to map feed sources for Black Swan Samso Concluding Comments I've been following Horizon Minerals for a while now, and sitting down with Grant Haywood really brought the story into focus. What I saw was a company that has quietly transitioned from being just another gold explorer to one that is genuinely producing—and doing so in a way that makes sense in the current gold environment. What stands out to me is the clarity of their strategy. Rather than rushing into big capex spends, Horizon is using third-party infrastructure to generate cash while carefully planning the refurbishment of the Black Swan plant. It's a smart move. This kind of thinking—measured, practical, and value-driven—is what sets them apart from a lot of other emerging gold plays. They've set their sights on becoming a 100,000oz/year producer by late 2026, and from where I sit, that is achievable. The resource base is there. They're mining. Cash is already flowing. And with drilling continuing at Burbanks and Booraara, the potential to expand and firm up long-term feed is only growing. There's also a glaring disconnect between the market valuation and what the company has quietly built. I wouldn't be surprised to see a rerate once the PFS for Black Swan is released and the market catches up to the fact that Horizon is well past the explorer stage. From an investment lens, what I see is a company with production, real optionality (think silver at Nimbus and even future nickel), and a near-term path to self-sustaining operations. The pieces are on the table. The next few quarters are all about execution—and in my view, that's where Grant's background in operations will be important. Remember, the devil is always in the details and having an operational thinking flag bearer like Grant will be very important. The chapters below will help you navigate the Coffee with Samso and l hope you will all get some value from Grant. Chapters: 00:00  Start 00:10  Introducing Samso News and Episode 207 of Coffee with Samso 02:06 Grant Haywood and the Horizon Minerals Story. 05:07  The Burbank Asset Acquisition. 05:50  Horizon Business Case. 07:12  The undervaluation of Horizon Minerals. 09:07  Explaining Booraara as one of the two Key Asset for Horizon Minerals. 10:14  The Numbers and Upside for the Booraara Project. 11:38  The Strategy for the Recent Fund Raising. 15:34  Upside of the Poseidon Acquisition. 18:06  The Horizon Minerals Mining Strategy. 20:41  The Silver Story for Horizon Minerals. 24:15  Are there any issues with Haulage for the Black Swan Strategy? 26:58  Minimum Expenditure 27:25  News Flow 31:09  Key Highlights Investors should look out for? 33:27  Could Nimbus be a Positive or a Negative for the horizon Story? 36:47  What should Investors Take away from this discussion?  37:21  Conclusion   The Samso Way – Seek the Research Here at Samso, we pride ourselves on delivering content for investors that is independent and informed by over three decades of experience in the industry. We are always asking the question that may sound simple and irrelevant, but these are typically the ones that make sense to you, the one seeking the knowledge. Our mission is simple: cut through the noise and spotlight what matters—genuine stories, grounded insights, and real opportunity. Our content is well-researched and is only created if the team sees a merit in discussing the company or concept. Investors can explore our three core platforms: Coffee with Samso Samso News Samso Insights There may be numerous paths to success in investing, but the common thread among successful individuals is that they remain committed to making informed decisions. Equip yourself with the right knowledge and tools, and you will be well on your way to achieving your financial goals. Most importantly, investors need to be absolutely diligent in understanding their own risk-reward tolerance and capabilities. Never bite off more than you can chew. As they say, Rome wasn't built in a day, and the Great Wall stood because it took centuries to complete. The Samso Philosophy: Stay curious. Stay sharp. And remember—digging deeper always uncovers the real value. In Life, there is no such thing as a Free Lunch. Happy Investing, and the only four-letter word you need to know is DYOR. To support our independent nature of our work, please head over to our Support Page and give us a helping hand in any of the ways listed. This is a new initiate for the Samso Platform, and it was always the concept of Samso when we started this journey in 2018.

Desert Island Discs
Norma Percy, film-maker

Desert Island Discs

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 20, 2025 51:06


Norma Percy is a documentary film-maker. She has been making programmes for over three decades and her productions have featured a range of political leaders from Tony Blair and Bill Clinton to Mikhail Gorbachev and Slobodan Milošević. Her film-making method, which she developed alongside her colleague Brian Lapping, tells the stories of our times by taking viewers into the room where the big decisions were made, with the people who made them.Norma was born in New York City and majored in Government at Oberlin College in Ohio. In 1963 she moved to London where she studied at the London School of Economics, before finding a job in the House of Commons as a researcher for the MP John Mackintosh.In 1972 she became a researcher for Brian Lapping, working on the Granada series State of the Nation. Later she produced The Second Russian Revolution and the award-winning Watergate – a five-part BBC series about the Watergate scandal.Her programmes have won an Emmy, two BAFTAs and four Royal Television Awards. Norma lives in London with her husband, the geneticist Professor Steve Jones. DISC ONE: Be Prepared - Tom Lehrer DISC TWO: Waltz in C sharp-minor, Op.64 No. 2. Composed by Frederic Chopin and performed by Khatia Buniatishvili DISC THREE: Well, Did You Evah? - Bing Crosby and Frank Sinatra DISC FOUR: Hard Day's Night - The Beatles DISC FIVE: Never Say No - The Fantasticks New Off-Broadway Cast DISC SIX: Swan Lake, Op. 20, TH.12 / Act 3: The Black Swan. Composed by Pyotr Tchaikovsky and performed by Erich Gruenberg (violin), London Symphony Orchestra, conducted by Richard Bonynge DISC SEVEN: It Ain't Me Babe - Joan Baez DISC EIGHT: Political Science - Randy Newman BOOK CHOICE: In Search of Lost Time by Marcel Proust LUXURY ITEM: A hot shower CASTAWAY'S FAVOURITE: It Ain't Me Babe - Joan Baez Presenter Lauren Laverne Producer Paula McGinley

ScaryCrit
Witch's Sous - House of Spoils (2024)

ScaryCrit

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 18, 2025 90:22


And we're back yet again with a delicious dish for this everlong season of ScaryCrit! Get ready to whet your whistles with J & L's foodie review of 2024's House of Spoils. From L's need for more desperation, J's love of the intersectionality sprinkled throughout, the horror of The Struggle™, and wondering if they both watched the same movie, there's something in this meal of a Crit all of you listeners will love. So dig in!Timestamps4:04 - Negronomicon26:46 - Crit1:23:49 - Final CurlsGems from Ep. 109I Know What You Did Last Summer (2025)Smile (2022)I Know What You Did Last Summer (1997)M3GAN (2023)I Still Know What You Did Last Summer (1998)Him (2025)Don't Tell Mom the Babysitter's Dead (2024)Don't Tell Mom the Babysitter's Dead (1991)Adventures in Babysitting (1987)Teen Witch (1989)Atlanta (2016)Weapons (2025)Barbarian (2022)Parasite (2019)Everything, Everywhere, All at Once (2022)Companion (2025)The Village (2004)The Nun II (2023)The Nun (2018)Together (2025)Better Half (2023)House of Spoils (2024)West Side Story (2021)Argylle (2024)Hamilton (2015, stage musical)Wish (2024)Kraven the Hunter (2024)Love Hurts (2025)Hunger (2023)The Wretched (2019)The Wicker Man (2006)Sweeny Todd: The Demon Barber of Flint Street (2007)The Bear (2022, television series)Black Swan (2009)Smile 2 (2024)Love Island (2019)Lovecraft Country (2020, television series)Crimson Peak (2015)Nancy Drew: The Haunted Carousel (2003, video game)Nancy Drew: Mystery of the Seven Keys (2024)Little Nightmares III (2025, video game)Fortnite (2017, video game)Little Nightmares (2018, video game)Reanimal (upcoming, video game)Little Nightmares II (2021, video games)Coraline (2009)LIMBO (2010, video game)INSIDE (2016, video game)Support the show

Highlights from Lunchtime Live
What does it take to be a ballerina?

Highlights from Lunchtime Live

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 18, 2025 9:59


Have you ever wondered what it takes to be a ballerina?How gruelling it can be on the body – is it anything like Black Swan?Ireland's most celebrated ballerina, Melissa Hamilton, joins guest host Anna Daly to discuss.

The Decrypting Crypto Podcast
Are Bitcoin Treasury Companies the Next Black Swan Event?

The Decrypting Crypto Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 10, 2025 49:09


SummaryIn this episode, Matthew Howells-Barby and Austin Knight discuss the evolving landscape of Bitcoin treasury companies, their impact on the market, and the associated risks. They explore the differences between leveraged and non-leveraged treasury companies, the influence of MicroStrategy, and the potential for Ethereum and Solana to emerge as significant treasury assets. The conversation also touches on the implications for decentralization and the future of cryptocurrency investments.TakeawaysBitcoin treasury companies are acquiring significant amounts of BTC.MicroStrategy has set a precedent for other companies.The rise of treasury companies could eclipse ETFs in influence.There are two types of Bitcoin treasury companies: leveraged and non-leveraged.The risks associated with treasury companies include potential market downturns.Countries are beginning to hold Bitcoin as part of their reserves.Ethereum and Solana are becoming popular treasury assets.Staking could provide a new revenue model for treasury companies.The future of Bitcoin is uncertain but cautiously optimistic.Decentralization of Bitcoin is at risk with increasing corporate ownership.Chapters00:00 Introduction to Bitcoin Treasury Companies01:11 The Rise of Bitcoin Treasury Companies06:00 Types of Bitcoin Treasury Companies11:17 The Impact of MicroStrategy18:07 The New Asset Class of Bitcoin Treasury Companies20:54 Risks and Potential Downfalls25:52 The Bitcoin Feedback Loop26:50 Monetary Regime Change and Bitcoin's Role28:42 Comparing Bitcoin to the Dot Com Bubble30:47 Countries and Bitcoin Holdings32:45 Bhutan's Unique Bitcoin Mining Strategy34:51 The Rise of Ethereum and Solana Treasuries38:54 Staking as a Revenue Model41:43 Potential Risks and Future Predictions45:52 Decentralization vs. Centralization in Crypto

Lance Roberts' Real Investment Hour
7-9-25 How to Protect Your Multi-decade Retirement from Inflation

Lance Roberts' Real Investment Hour

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 9, 2025 46:17


More Tariff trouble on the horizon, but markets have seen this movie before (The Stick & Carrot Show). Market risk remains, as markets are highly deviated. Sentiment remains positive; there's a large gap between market performance and economic data, however. Deviations tend to resolve themselves to the downside. Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff reveal how to shield your retirement savings from decades of inflation: The necessity of Inflation and how to deal with it (inflation is a function of economic growth); the mistake of being too conservative, fear of The Black Swan that never appears. Lance reveals his memory challenges; living thru market downturns, and lessons learned. Market downturns don't happen over night. Treasuries vs Equities: What's the proper blend? Passive Investing is an oxymoron. Risk management is essential for fighting inflation. SEG-1: Tariff Threats Return, Market Risk Rises SEG-2: The Necessity of Inflation and How to Deal With It SEG-3a: Lance's Dementia Test SEG-3b: Living thru Market Downturns SEG-4: Inflation-proofing Retirement - Treasuries vs Equities RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y4MmYoAZvc0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=18s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Investor Greed Returns With A Vengeance" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/investor-greed-returns-with-a-vengeance/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Market Risk is Rising," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NdRpxHuJF4s&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "ETF's Are Eating the World," https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=18uxAOHUAE0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAuhi47sn298HrsWYwmg8MV7d&index=2 ------- Register for our next live webinar, "Financial Independence Candid Coffee," June 28, 2025: https://streamyard.com/watch/BUr4UuRVt6Uj ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketRally #MarketRisk #MarketCorrection #MarketConsolidation #Volatility #RiskManagement #PortfolioRisk #RetirementPlanning #InflationProtection #RetirementSavings #FinancialFreedom #SmartInvesting #InvestingStrategies #FinancialMarkets #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

The Real Investment Show Podcast
7-9-25 How to Protect Your Multi-decade Retirement From Inflation

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 9, 2025 46:18


More Tariff trouble on the horizon, but markets have seen this movie before (The Stick & Carrot Show). Market risk remains, as markets are highly deviated. Sentiment remains positive; there's a large gap between market performance and economic  data, however. Deviations tend to resolve themselves to the downside. Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff reveal how to shield your retirement savings from decades of inflation: The necessity of Inflation and how to deal with it (inflation is a function of economic growth); the mistake of being too conservative, fear of The Black Swan that never appears. Lance reveals his memory challenges; living thru market downturns, and lessons learned. Market downturns don't happen over night. Treasuries vs Equities: What's the proper blend? Passive Investing is an oxymoron. Risk management is essential for fighting inflation. SEG-1: Tariff Threats Return, Market Risk Rises SEG-2: The Necessity of Inflation and How to Deal With It SEG-3a: Lance's Dementia Test SEG-3b: Living thru Market Downturns SEG-4: Inflation-proofing Retirement - Treasuries vs Equities   RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y4MmYoAZvc0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=18s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Investor Greed Returns With A Vengeance" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/investor-greed-returns-with-a-vengeance/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Market Risk is Rising," is here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NdRpxHuJF4s&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "ETF's Are Eating the World," https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=18uxAOHUAE0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAuhi47sn298HrsWYwmg8MV7d&index=2 ------- Register for our next live webinar, "Financial Independence Candid Coffee," June 28, 2025: https://streamyard.com/watch/BUr4UuRVt6Uj ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketRally #MarketRisk #MarketCorrection #MarketConsolidation #Volatility #RiskManagement #PortfolioRisk #RetirementPlanning #InflationProtection #RetirementSavings #FinancialFreedom #SmartInvesting #InvestingStrategies  #FinancialMarkets #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

You Need To See This!
Black Swan (2010)

You Need To See This!

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 1, 2025 64:21


This week, Bri takes Cozi to the ballet with Darren Aronofsky's 2010 psychological drama Black Swan.Nina, an ambitious and talented ballerina, gets the role of a lifetime in a production of Swan Lake. However, in her attempt to portray both the white and black swan roles, her obsession with perfection leads her psyche down a dark path marked with rivalry, distrust, and paranoia as we see the dark side of perfectionism.Will Cozi be interested in checking out this psychological drama filled with bits of body horror? Listen and find out! Recommendations:Bri – Ride the waves (the emotional bad/sad waves and the feel-good ones)Cozi – The song "August 17" by Have Mercy

Progressively Horrified
Black Swan - Pride Rebroadcast

Progressively Horrified

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 28, 2025 175:12


Sign up to support Progressively Horrified on Patreon for as little as $5 a month and get bonus episodes! https://www.patreon.com/c/progressivelyhorrified Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Spooky Tuesday
Black Swan (2010): "Was I Good?"

Spooky Tuesday

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 24, 2025 122:00


We want it to be good for you, Spookies — which is why we left our final pick for Homoerotic Thriller Pride in our Patron's hands. To round out the month, we're ending with a bow and Black Swan (2010), a balletic horror that fulfills all your body horror (and body pleasure) fantasies. Starring Natalie Portman and Mila Kunis with supporting performances from Barbara Hershey and Winona Ryder, this flick strives for perfection, and we dare say they just might reach it if you take all of the critical approval into account. Seriously, this Darren Aronofsky film had a decent showing at the Academy Awards, but whether it redeems him in our eyes after Mother!, well, that's up for discussion. References:https://btchflcks.com/2013/12/the-horror-of-female-sexual-awakening-black-swan.htmlhttps://www.thepinknews.com/2012/07/12/black-swans-gay-love-scene-prompts-more-complaints-than-any-other-film/https://filmschoolrejects.com/black-swan-ocd/https://medium.com/@snehanarayan/black-and-white-the-real-reason-black-swan-is-a-tragedy-0a91e969d87dhttps://bloody-disgusting.com/editorials/3549664/horror-queers-lesbian-hallucinations-metoo-sexual-repression-black-swan/https://www.theclassicalgirl.com/10-reasons-real-ballet-dancers-hate-black-swan/

BTC Sessions
How Pro Negotiators ACTUALLY Win 93% of the Time | Bitcoiners Lessons | Derek Gaunt

BTC Sessions

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 24, 2025 73:19


Mentor Sessions Ep.017: Derek Gaunt on How Bitcoiners can Master Negotiations with the Black Swan Group TacticsIn this Mentor Sessions episode, Derek Gaunt, a 20-year hostage negotiator and Black Swan Group expert, joins us to reveal how His and Chris Voss's proven tactics can transform your Bitcoin deals and daily life. Learn to navigate high-stakes negotiations, defuse tense conversations, and unlock powerful communication tools like mirrors, labels, and dynamic silence. From saving $16 million in a lawsuit to deciding on dinner, Derek's insights are a game-changer for Bitcoiners aiming win more. Don't miss this chance to boost your leadership, communication, and negotiating skills—hit play now!Key Topics: • Applying hostage negotiation to everyday interactions • Black Swan Group communication strategies • Tactical empathy for better Bitcoin deals • Why curiosity is your secret weapon in negotiationsChapters: • 00:00:00 - IntroductionDerek Gaunt sets the stage, debunking "win-win" and sharing his Black Swan Group expertise.• 00:00:28 - Why Negotiation Matters for BitcoinersHow Derek Gaunt and Chris Voss's skills tripled income and why Bitcoiners need them.• 00:02:27 - Derek's Hostage Negotiation BackgroundDerek shares his 20-year journey and the founding of the Black Swan Group with Chris Voss.• 00:04:41 - The Power of Tactical EmpathyWhy understanding your counterpart's worldview is key to negotiations.• 00:06:18 - High-Stakes Negotiation SuccessHow Derek's coaching saved a client $16 million in a lawsuit using Black Swan tactics.• 00:10:43 - Defusing Defenses in ConversationsUsing tactical empathy to lower defenses and enable open discussions.• 00:12:25 - Letting the Other Side Go FirstWhy curiosity and listening first unlock better outcomes.• 00:21:44 - Key Negotiation Tools: Labels, Mirrors, SilenceDerek explains how to use labels, mirrors, and dynamic silence.• 00:39:47 - Handling Difficult PersonalitiesStrategies to address counterproductive behavior respectfully in deals.• 00:43:50 - When to Walk Away from a DealDerek on spotting integrity issues and walking away from risky partnerships.• 00:46:45 - Are Hostage Negotiations the Hardest?Why Black Swan skills apply universally, from Bitcoin buys to everyday disputes.• 00:54:00 - Overcoming Objections with CuriosityHow to uncover hidden motivations in price objections using labels.• 01:06:51 - Structuring a Winning ConversationDerek's framework for Bitcoin negotiations: accusations audit, summary, proof of life.• 01:11:47 - Derek's Bitcoin Journey & Where to Find HimDerek's take on Bitcoin and how to connect with his work at Black Swan Group.About Derek Gaunt: • Book: Ego, Authority, Failure (available on Amazon and Audible)• Website: blackswanltd.com• LinkedIn: Derek Gaunt• Instagram: @derekmgaunt• Email: info@blackswanltd.com FREE Bitcoin Book Giveaway: New to Bitcoin? Get Magic Internet Money by Jesse Berger FREE! Click: bitcoinmentororange.com/magic-internet-money BOOK Private Sessions with Bitcoin Mentor: Master self-custody, hardware, multisig, Lightning, privacy, and more. Visit bitcoinmentor.io Subscribe to Mentor Sessions: Don't miss out!Follow Us:• BTC Sessions: @BTCsessions• Nathan: @theBTCmentor• Gary: @GaryLeeNYCPrevious Episode: Check out MADEX on fiat's war on art and Alberta's Bitcoin future: https://youtu.be/E93GGv5EIQs Support the Channel: Smash the like button, share with your Bitcoin crew, and subscribe for more! #Bitcoin #Negotiation #DerekGaunt #BlackSwanGroup #ChrisVoss #HostageNegotiation #TacticalEmpathy #BitcoinPodcast #CommunicationSkills #MentorSessions #BitcoinEducation #Leadership #Podcast #Crypto #Cryptocurrency

The Reel Rejects
STRANGER THINGS Season 2, Episodes 3 & 4 REVIEW!!!

The Reel Rejects

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 14, 2025 27:42


DUSTIN FINDS A NEW PET!! Stranger Things Full Reaction Watch Along:   / thereelrejects   With Release Dates for Stranger Things 5 Freshly Announced, Tara & Andrew RETURN for their Stranger Things Season 2 Episodes 3 & 4 Reaction, Recap, Commentary, Analysis, & Spoiler Review!! Visit https://huel.com/rejects to get 15% off your order Join Tara Erickson & Andrew Gordon as they dive deeper into Hawkins' 1984 horrors in Netflix's sci-fi thriller Stranger Things from the Duffer Brothers. In Episode 3: “The Pollywog,” Dustin (Gaten Matarazzo, Prank Encounters) befriends a mysterious creature he nicknames “D'Art,” hiding it in his trash can bunker—only to discover it's more than a harmless pollywog. Meanwhile, Eleven (Millie Bobby Brown, Enola Holmes) continues to test the limits of her telekinesis under Hopper's watchful eye (David Harbour, Hellboy), and Winona Ryder's Joyce Byers (Heathers, Black Swan) and Sean Astin's Bob Newby (The Goonies, Stranger Things season 2) make hopeful plans at her new repair shop, unaware of the Upside Down's creeping reach. In Episode 4: “Will the Wise,” the stakes escalate: Eleven and Hopper's cabin retreat reveals her growing sense of purpose, Jonathan Byers (Charlie Heaton, Locke & Key) and Nancy Wheeler (Natalia Dyer, Yes, God, Yes) track a slug-like parasite to the school lab in a tense showdown, and Bob's heroic science-fair demo turns life-saving when the creature strikes. Don't miss the chilling lab corridor ambush and the heart-pounding slug attack on the school's electrical grid—two of the season's most talked-about, highly searched moments. Follow Andrew Gordon on Socials:  YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@MovieSource Instagram:  https://www.instagram.com/agor711/?hl=en Twitter:  https://twitter.com/Agor711 Follow Tara Erickson: Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@TaraErickson Instagram:  https://www.instagram.com/taraerickson/ Twitter:  https://twitter.com/thetaraerickson Intense Suspense by Audionautix is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/... Support The Channel By Getting Some REEL REJECTS Apparel! https://www.rejectnationshop.com/ Follow Us On Socials:  Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/reelrejects/  Tik-Tok: https://www.tiktok.com/@reelrejects?lang=en Twitter: https://x.com/reelrejects Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/TheReelRejects/ Music Used In Ad:  Hat the Jazz by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Happy Alley by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/... POWERED BY @GFUEL Visit https://gfuel.ly/3wD5Ygo and use code REJECTNATION for 20% off select tubs!! Head Editor: https://www.instagram.com/praperhq/?hl=en Co-Editor: Greg Alba Co-Editor: John Humphrey Music In Video: Airport Lounge - Disco Ultralounge by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Ask Us A QUESTION On CAMEO: https://www.cameo.com/thereelrejects Follow TheReelRejects On FACEBOOK, TWITTER, & INSTAGRAM:  FB:  https://www.facebook.com/TheReelRejects/ INSTAGRAM:  https://www.instagram.com/reelrejects/ TWITTER:  https://twitter.com/thereelrejects Follow GREG ON INSTAGRAM & TWITTER: INSTAGRAM:  https://www.instagram.com/thegregalba/ TWITTER:  https://twitter.com/thegregalba Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Born of Chaos Podcast
#186 - Riot Season, Black Swan, Three Body Problem, Trump VS. Musk, Big Beautiful Bill, Egypt.

Born of Chaos Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 13, 2025 70:23


On the 186th episode of the SKIDS PODCAST; We discuss the pure insanity of the riots in Los Angeles; What is a Black Swan event; Three Body Problem; Trump VS. Musk comes to a conclusion; The Big Beautiful Bill is almost here; Science Orthodoxy narratives in question; Egypt, land of lies and secrets; No Kings Day. Coffee Brand Coffee -https://coffeebrandcoffee.com/Use the coupon code: gps1 to get 5% off your purchase.  You will be supporting an independent, growing company, as well as our show in the process!!#skids #skidspodcast #garbagepailskids #gps #podcast #comedy #discussion #commentary #riots #lariots #losangeles #politics #blackswan #ai #video #threebodyproblem #lastofus #trump #musk #bigbeautifulbill #egypt #kingslist #orthodoxy #mainstreamscience #archaeology #nokingsday #protests #samtripoli #joerogan #california

Marriage, Kids and Money
How One Index Fund Can Make You a Millionaire | JL Collins

Marriage, Kids and Money

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 10, 2025 41:53


Andy Hill welcomes back JL Collins—often dubbed the “Godfather of FI”—to discuss the updated and expanded edition of his bestselling book, The Simple Path to Wealth. Together, they demystify investing, discuss the power of index funds, and share how building FU Money can unlock freedom and solopreneur dreams. JL shares lessons from 50 years of market data and why “set it and forget it” is still the winning strategy. RESOURCES: ⁠Sponsors + Partners + Deals⁠ The Simple Path to Wealth (book): ⁠https://amzn.to/3ZBDGS2 (affiliate) Chapters 00:00 – The Simplest Investing Advice You'll Ever Hear00:36 – Why So Few People Invest in the Stock Market01:53 – Why Investing Feels So Complicated (Thanks, Wall Street)03:06 – Index Funds 101: Why They Work04:57 – How Index Funds Are Self-Cleansing06:10 – Avoiding Analysis Paralysis: Stick to One Fund08:17 – Do You Need to Switch Brokerages for Better Funds?09:30 – Should You Add International Stocks? JL's Take12:02 – Set It and Forget It: The Power of Automation15:42 – The “Tweaky Path” vs. The Simple Path16:16 – Filtering Out Financial Fear in the Media20:22 – Investing: A Psychological Game22:45 – 50 Years of Market Returns: What the Data Really Says27:48 – FU Money: Your Runway to Solopreneurship and Freedom29:42 – Buying Freedom vs. Buying Stuff31:47 – Is This Time Really Different? (Spoiler: It's Not)33:46 – Planning for Black Swans? Or Betting on the 99%?35:25 – How to Get Started Today: One Simple Step36:48 – Where to Find the Updated Book and More Resources MKM RESOURCES: ⁠MKM Coaching⁠: Want 1-on-1 support with your family finance journey? Book a time with me today. ⁠Coast FIRE Calculator⁠: A free calculator to help you find out when you can slow down or stop investing for retirement. ⁠Mortgage Payoff Calculator⁠: A free calculator to help you see how fast you can become mortgage free. ⁠YouTube⁠: Subscribe for free to watch videos of these episodes and interviews. RECOMMENDED RESOURCES (SPONSORS AND AFFILIATES): ⁠Monarch Money⁠ - Best Budget App for Families & Couples ⁠Empower⁠ - Free Portfolio Tracker ⁠Crew⁠ - HYSA Banking Built for Families - Get an Extra 0.5% APY with my partner link ⁠Ethos⁠ - Affordable Term Life Insurance ⁠Trust & Will ⁠- Convenient Estate Planning HOW WE MAKE MONEY + DISCLAIMER: This show may contain affiliate links or links from our advertisers where we earn a commission, direct payment or products. Opinions are the creators alone. Information shared on this podcast is for entertainment purposes only and should not be considered as professional advice. Marriage Kids and Money (www.marriagekidsandmoney.com) is a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program designed to provide a means for sites to earn advertising fees by advertising and linking to amazon.com. CREDITS: Podcast Artwork: Kayli Johnson Editor: Johnny Sohl Podcast Support: Nev Maraj Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Growth Mindset Podcast
Radical Uncertainty: How to deal with surprises and Black Swan events - w/ Nicolas Vereecke

Growth Mindset Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 6, 2025 29:02


Ever felt like life just sucker-punched you out of nowhere? That's exactly what Nassim Taleb calls a Black Swan event. Most people think they can predict the future by looking at patterns. They study charts, analyze trends, and feel safe in their little bubble of certainty. However, the biggest events that shape our lives—market crashes, pandemics, breakthrough innovations—are the ones nobody sees coming. .. Taleb argues we're all like turkeys getting fed every day, thinking tomorrow will be the same, until suddenly it's Thanksgiving. The real mind-bender? We convince ourselves afterwards that we "should have seen it coming." This is critical for understanding finance or world events More than that, it's about how your brain tricks you into thinking you understand a world, that's fundamentally unpredictable. Stop trying to predict everything and start building resilience for anything Rebuild your investment portfolio and life plan to deal with shocks Prepare for worst-case scenarios instead of hoping for the best How to Change the World Sam's new show can be found on major podcast players: Spotify - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/1Fj3eFjEoAEKF5lWQxPJyT⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Apple - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/how-to-change-the-world-the-history-of-innovation/id1815282649⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ YouTube - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/@HowToChangeTheWorldPodcast⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Can't find it on your player? RSS feed - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://feeds.acast.com/public/shows/682b3b86696b5d1232d698a8⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ------- UPGRADE to ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Premium⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠:

Black Girl Film Club
Episode 118: Mulholland Dr. (2001)

Black Girl Film Club

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 4, 2025 135:19


Silencio! We finally get lost in David Lynch's walking daydream Mulholland Dr. (2001) starring Naomi Watts, Laura Harring, and Justin Theroux. Lynch, as usual, declined to explain the meaning of the film and we here at Black Girl Film Club can little more than offer our musing and interpretations including: the Hollywood machine, the sinister nature of LA, shaping your identity, Ellen Degeneres wigs, and the Blue Box Theory. We miss you, David and thank you for everything. Our recommendations: Persona (1966), 3 Women (1977), Black Swan (2010), Perfect Blue (1997)

Keen On Democracy
Drowning in Black Swans: Why Governance is Failing in our Age of Chaos

Keen On Democracy

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 3, 2025 44:17


Black swan events used to be considered as one-of-a-kind events signifying something rare and exceptional. Today, however, we may be drowning in black swans. That, at least, is the view of global venture investor Christopher Schroeder, in his reflections on recent travel in India, the Gulf, Estonia & the United Kingdom. From the sudden eruption of India-Pakistan tensions that nobody saw coming, to Ukraine's daring military successes against Russia, to this week's collapse of the Dutch government, Schroeder argues we're living in an era of perpetual unpredictability. Schroeder believes that this flood of uncertainty is not only fueling a global anti-incumbent movement and reshaping defense technology, but also forcing nations to rethink their fundamental assumptions about governance, geopolitics, and technological innovation. five key takeaways1. We're Living in an Era of Constant Black Swans Unpredictable, high-impact events have become the norm rather than the exception - from sudden India-Pakistan tensions to Ukraine's surprising military successes to government collapses across Europe.2. Global Anti-Incumbent Sentiment is Driving Political Upheaval People worldwide are rejecting traditional governance that they perceive as incompetent or rigged for insiders, creating fertile ground for populist alternatives and massive political disruption.3. Defense Technology is Stuck in 20th Century Processes While Ukraine adapts drone technology in weeks based on battlefield feedback, Western procurement systems take 3-5 years (versus China's 18 months), creating a dangerous capability gap in modern warfare.4. Countries are Diversifying Dependencies to Avoid Over-Reliance Nations from India to Europe are consciously seeking alternatives to avoid becoming overly dependent on any single power - whether China for manufacturing or Russia for energy.5. Business-as-Usual Governance Cannot Address 21st Century Challenges Traditional institutions and processes are fundamentally inadequate for the speed and complexity of current global challenges, requiring dramatic structural changes that most governments resist making.Christopher M. Schroeder is a Washington D.C. and New York City based entrepreneur and venture investor. He is currently Chair of the Board of Trustees of the German Marshall Fund. He co-founded HealthCentral.com, one of the nation's largest social and content platforms in health and wellness, backed by Sequoia Capital, Polaris Ventures, The Carlyle Group, Allen & Company and IAC Corporation. The company was sold to the health media publisher, Remedy Health, in January 2012 where Schroeder remained a board advisor. Previously he was CEO of washingtonpost.newsweek interactive and LegiSlate.com, the b2b interactive platform on US and state legislation and regulation that he sold in 2000. He currently is an active investor in and advisor to top US venture capital funds and over a dozen consumer-facing social/media startups. He has had a career in finance and served in President George HW Bush's White House and Department of State on the staffs of James A. Baker, III and Robert B. Zoellick.Named as one of the "100 most connected men" by GQ magazine, Andrew Keen is amongst the world's best known broadcasters and commentators. In addition to presenting the daily KEEN ON show, he is the host of the long-running How To Fix Democracy interview series. He is also the author of four prescient books about digital technology: CULT OF THE AMATEUR, DIGITAL VERTIGO, THE INTERNET IS NOT THE ANSWER and HOW TO FIX THE FUTURE. Andrew lives in San Francisco, is married to Cassandra Knight, Google's VP of Litigation & Discovery, and has two grown children.Keen On America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit keenon.substack.com/subscribe

The Human Risk Podcast
Dr Chengwei Liu on Luck & Serendipity

The Human Risk Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 1, 2025 63:59


Have you ever wondered how much of your success is down to luck? What if the world is far less fair and predictable than we'd like to think? On this episode, I explore the complex and fascinating role of luck in our lives and decisions with Dr. Chengwei Liu, Associate Professor of Strategy and Behavioural Science at Imperial College London. Chengwei shares how his research challenges our assumptions about skill, effort, and fairness – and why the outcomes we see are often far more random than we'd like to believe. We discuss why many successful strategies and best practices are built on shaky ground, and how our tendency to downplay luck creates illusions of control and reinforces unfair systems. Chengwei explains how beliefs in fairness – like the ‘just world' hypothesis – shape everything from business cultures to political systems, and how luck and misperceptions of it can create cycles of privilege or disadvantage. Chengwei also shares practical insights on how to become a smart contrarian: someone who can harness the power of randomness and serendipity while avoiding the pitfalls of bias and overconfidence. From the dangers of blindly following the ‘successful' to the need to look inward and embrace uniqueness, it's a thought-provoking conversation that will change the way you think about risk, decision-making, and what it really means to get ahead. Guest BiographyDr. Chengwei Liu is an Associate Professor of Strategy and Behavioural Science at Imperial College London. He describes himself as someone fascinated by how luck, randomness, and human biases shape success and failure – both in business and in broader society. Chengwei's work challenges mainstream management thinking and explores how much of what we attribute to skill is actually the result of random factors. His book, Luck: A Key Idea for Business and Society, examines these dynamics and how we can learn to navigate them. Beyond his academic roles, Chengwei has also worked as a management consultant, drawing on his experience in both research and practice to uncover how to harness luck and uncertainty. AI-Generated Timestamped Summary[00:00:00] Introduction[00:02:00] Chengwei explains his research focus on randomness and variance in firm performance [00:04:00] The overlooked 50% of variance in outcomes: luck and randomness [00:06:00] Defining luck as what lies beyond our control and foresight [00:08:00] The conflict between fairness beliefs and the reality of luck [00:10:00] Luck's societal implications: why fairness perceptions differ across countries [00:11:00] Skill versus luck – how we confuse the two in our narratives [00:13:00] Why successful people over-attribute their success to skill [00:15:00] Managers vs entrepreneurs: how they differ in acknowledging luck [00:17:00] The challenges of researching an elusive concept like luck [00:18:00] Using mathematical models to understand Black Swan events [00:20:00] Why successful predictions of Black Swan events don't indicate forecasting skill [00:23:00] The problem with best practices from ‘successful' firms [00:26:00] Selection bias in business books and the danger of survivor bias [00:29:00] The ‘too good to be true' heuristic as a guide [00:31:00] Contrarian thinking as a survival strategy for uncertainty [00:33:00] The replication crisis and the problem with social science predictability [00:35:00] Human curiosity: the power of moderate surprises [00:37:00] The difference between luck and serendipity [00:39:00] How to encourage serendipity in our lives [00:41:00] Embracing uniqueness and avoiding conformity [00:44:00] Lessons for the age of AI and human creativity [00:46:00] The dangers of ignoring randomness: when biases become destructive [00:48:00] Exploiting others' biases for strategic advantage [00:50:00] Why ‘smart contrarian' thinking is more important than ever [00:53:00] Testing contrarian ideas like a scientist [00:56:00] The limits of trial and error: learning from mistakes [00:58:00] Chengwei's ongoing research: minority decision-making in venture capital [01:00:00] How passion and variance link to VC investment strategies [01:02:00] Wrapping up with reflections on luck, curiosity, and human creativity LinksDr. Chengwei Liu's book, Luck: A Key Idea for Business and Society: https://www.routledge.com/Luck-A-Key-Idea-for-Business-and-Society/Liu/p/book/9781138094260? Chengwei Liu's Imperial College faculty webpage: https://profiles.imperial.ac.uk/c.liu

Land to Lots
E77- Chris Voss on the Art of Negotiations

Land to Lots

Play Episode Listen Later May 29, 2025 51:27


In this episode, Carter sits down with legendary FBI hostage negotiator and the author of Never Split the Difference, Chris Voss to unpack the art of negotiation. From tactical empathy to the power of “no,” learn proven strategies you can use in every deal. Don't miss this masterclass—tune in now and level up your negotiation game In this episode, you'll learn: What is Tactical Empathy. How to Mirror and why it is important. Why “no” is an opportunity. The importance of a Black Swan in negotiation. How much money real estate executives leave on the table because of inadequate negotiating skills. Show Notes Black Swan Group Never Split the Difference Book Recommended Books Antifragile The Black Swan  Plus: Whenever you're ready here are 4 ways Launch can help you with your project: Prepare a Special Tax District Bond Analysis for your Project – If you have a projects in AZ, CA, CO, ID, NC, NM, SC, TX, UT, WA contact  Carter Froelich (ADD MY EMAIL LINK) and have Launch prepare an initial bond analysis for your project. Add Favorable Financing Language to Annexation and/or Development Agreements – Create certainty and flexibility related to your project's infrastructure financing by having Launch professionals prepare handcrafted favorable financing language for inclusion in your Annexation and/or Development Agreement. Perform The RED Analysis™ on your Project – We have developed a unique process at Launch called The RED Analysis™ in which we perform a diagnostic review of your project to determine possible ways to Reduce, Eliminate and Defer infrastructure construction costs in order to enhance project returns. Track Your Reimbursable Costs Utilizing The Launch Reimbursement System™ (“LRS”) – Never lose track of your district eligible reimbursable costs and have Launch manage your district's costs reimbursement tracking, preparation of electronic reimbursement submittal packages and processing of your reimbursement requests with the district, jurisdiction and/or agency. Complimentary Offers for Land to Lots™ ListenersComplimentary Land to Lots book: https://www.launch-mpc.com/offer Complimentary Bond Sizing Analysis:  https://form.jotform.com/231376408765160 Get all the shownotes here Learn more about Launch Development Finance Advisors Connect with Carter Froelich Connect With Launch Development Finance Advisors Carter Froelich – 480-828-9555 / carter@launch-dfa.com Carter Froelich hosts the Land to Lots™ podcast powered by Launch Development Finance Advisors. Carter shares how he and his team help their clients finance infrastructure, reduce costs, and mitigate risks all with the goal of enhancing project profitability.

HORROR WITH SIR. STURDY
HORROR WITH SIR. STURDY EP 551~ `PERFECT BLUE (1997) & THE INTENSITY OF ANIMATED HORROR

HORROR WITH SIR. STURDY

Play Episode Listen Later May 24, 2025 39:35


HORROR WITH SIR. STURDY EP 551~ `PERFECT BLUE (1997) & THE INTENSITY OF ANIMATED HORROR   What's good, Horror Fam!? Tonight on Horror With Sir. Sturdy, we're diving deep into the animated psychological horror cult classic—Perfect Blue (1997).   This film is pure intensity—disturbing visuals, identity breakdowns, blurred reality, and the kind of suspense that crawls under your skin.   This ain't your typical anime. It's twisted, brilliant, and leaves your mind spinning.   Joining me tonight are some real ones:

Dish
Natalie Portman, broccoli tabbouleh and a Paloma

Dish

Play Episode Listen Later May 21, 2025 39:18


Nick and Angela are joined by an Oscar winner for a vegan feast. Natalie Portman is an award-winning actor, director and activist who has been making films since her first role at the age of 12 in Léon: The Professional. In a highly acclaimed career, she has also starred in Closer, Jackie, Thor, Star Wars (Episodes I, II and III) and the 2010 film Black Swan, for which she won the Academy Award for Best Actress.  She joins us to talk about her exciting new film Fountain of Youth, which is released on Apple TV+ on 23 May, UK. The action-packed movie, directed by Guy Ritchie, took its cast all over the world during production with shooting locations in Bangkok, Vienna, London and Cairo. Natalie is part of a star-studded cast including John Krasinksi, Domnhall Gleeson, Eiza González and Dish favourite Stanley Tucci. Natalie joined us just before a trip back home to Paris and was delighted to be fuelled by an array of vegan plates... and a Paloma cocktail to start. Angela served a vegan version of Waitrose's broccoli tabbouleh with preserved lemon & zaatar houmous and Lebanese baba ganoush. The wine experts at Waitrose suggest pairing the meal with Kaapzicht Granite Ridge Bush Vine Chenin Blanc.  We loved spending time with Natalie and we are sure you will too. She shared her passion for vegan food and told Nick and Angela about life (and food shopping) in Paris. We find out what it's like to star in a Guy Ritchie movie and Natalie revisits the year of her Oscar win.  You can watch full episodes of Dish on YouTube  All recipes from this podcast can be found at waitrose.com/dishrecipes A transcript for this episode can be found at waitrose.com/dish We can't all have a Michelin star chef in the kitchen, but you can ask Angela for help.  Send your dilemmas to dish@waitrose.co.uk and she'll try to answer them in a future episode. Dish from Waitrose is made by Cold Glass Productions.

Monday Morning Critic Podcast
Episode 550 |"The War", Fried Green Tomatoes" and "The Last Rodeo" | Director Jon Avent

Monday Morning Critic Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later May 19, 2025 27:11


Send us a textEpisode 550"The War", Fried Green Tomatoes" and "The Last Rodeo" Director: Jon AvnetJon Avnet has directed some fantastic films that include "The War", "Fried Green Tomatoes" and his most recent film, "The Last Rodeo"."The War" is one of the most underrated movies of the last 30+ years.  It features a very underrated performance by Kevin Coster. He produced Paul Brickman's "Risky Business" for David Geffen and Warner Brothers, which launched the career of Tom Cruise and was a major box office and critical success.Jon is best known for directing producing and co-writing (uncredited,) Fried Green Tomatoes, which garnered multiple Academy Award nominations (for writing and for Jessica Tandy, who co-starred with Kathy Bates, Cicely Tyson, Mary Stuart Masterson, and Mary Louise Parker) and BAFTAs. Fried Green Tomatoes was nominated for Best Picture by the Golden Globes and was one of the top grossing films in the year of its release for Universal Pictures. Filmed in Juliette Georgia, Production Designer Barbara Ling recreated a 1920's small town Alabama Whistle stop. Thomas Newman composed the music. Geoffrey Simpson shot the film, Debbie Neil-Fischer was the editor and David Rubin cast it, winning the Artios award for best casting.Avnet was an executive producer of Fox Searchlights "Black Swan", starring Natalie Portman (winner of the Oscar for Best Actress) and directed by Darren Aronofsky. Black Swan received five Oscar nominations in total (including Best Picture) as well as multiple nominations and wins from the DGA, PGA, WGA, SAG, BAFTA, AFI, and the Golden Globes.We talk about "The Last Rodeo", his filmography and much more.Welcome, Jon Avnet.#thewar #kevincostner #friedgreentomatoes #movies #tomcruise #waltongoggins #angelstudio #director #justified www.mmcpodcast.comReach out to anytime!Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/mondaymorningcritic/Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/mondaymorningcritic/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@mondaymorningcriticMondaymorningcritic@gmail.com

More Knowledge, More Wealth!
Ep. 292: The Market Could Drop 20% (And Why That's OK)

More Knowledge, More Wealth!

Play Episode Listen Later May 17, 2025 27:49


Join Gabriel Shahin, CFP® and CEO & President of Falcon Wealth Planning, in this episode of More Knowledge, More Wealth as he breaks down 9 realistic scenarios that could lead to a 20% market drop—and why that shouldn't scare long-term investors. From geopolitical instability to monetary policy missteps and Black Swan events, Gabe explains each trigger in plain language and helps listeners reframe volatility as a normal part of investing.Whether you're managing your own money or working with an advisor, this episode is packed with perspective and practical insight to help you stay disciplined when headlines get loud.

BE THAT LAWYER
John Morgan: Blueprints for Organizational Transformation

BE THAT LAWYER

Play Episode Listen Later May 12, 2025 38:14


In this episode, Steve Fretzin and John Morgan discuss:Business growth and scaling strategiesImportance of partnerships and accountabilityTechnological innovation in professional servicesEntrepreneurial mindset and vision Key Takeaways:Successful businesses balance proactive growth (“catching fish”) with strong operations (“cooking fish”) for sustained efficiency.Clear, data-driven systems with dashboards and accountability can transform culture and boost individual and team performance.AI adoption should be cautious, tested, and iterative, with room for learning from early-stage mistakes.Long-term resilience requires financial reserves, backup strategies, and readiness for unpredictable “Black Swan” events. "What 'Only the Paranoid Survive' means is: be aware. Do [not just walk] down the street with blinders on and not see it coming, because it can come from anywhere. A problem can come from anywhere, and so you just have to be prepared." —  John Morgan Unlock the secrets of the industry's top rainmakers with Be That Lawyer: 101 Top Rainmakers' Secrets to Growing a Successful Law Practice. Grab your ultimate guide to building a thriving law firm now on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0F78HXJHT Thank you to our Sponsors!Rankings.io: https://rankings.io/Ready to grow your law practice without selling or chasing? Book your free 30-minute strategy session now—let's make this your breakout year: https://fretzin.com/ Episode References: The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb: https://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Improbable-Robustness-Fragility/dp/081297381X About John Morgan: John Morgan moved to Central Florida as a teen and was forever changed when his brother Tim was paralyzed while working at Disney and mistreated by both the company and legal system, inspiring him to fight for the powerless and seek justice against big corporations. He earned his law degree from the University of Florida in 1983 and, with his wife Ultima, founded Morgan & Morgan in 1988; over 34 years, it became the nation's largest injury law firm, recovering over $13 billion for 300,000+ clients. John authored two books — You Can't Teach Hungry and You Can't Teach Vision — reflecting the principles behind his success, and he's also a political advocate and philanthropist supporting marijuana reform, minimum wage increases, and aid for abuse survivors and the hungry. Connect with John Morgan:  Website: https://www.forthepeople.com/Email: jmorgan@forthepeople.comLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/johnmorganesq/Twitter: https://x.com/johnmorganesqFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/JohnMorganESQ Connect with Steve Fretzin:LinkedIn: Steve FretzinTwitter: @stevefretzinInstagram: @fretzinsteveFacebook: Fretzin, Inc.Website: Fretzin.comEmail: Steve@Fretzin.comBook: Legal Business Development Isn't Rocket Science and more!YouTube: Steve FretzinCall Steve directly at 847-602-6911 Audio production by Turnkey Podcast Productions. You're the expert. Your podcast will prove it. 

The Audio Long Read
The real Scandi noir: how a filmmaker and a crooked lawyer shattered Denmark's self-image

The Audio Long Read

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 21, 2025 47:41


The Black Swan follows a repentant master criminal as she sets up corrupt clients in front of hidden cameras. But is she really reformed – and is the director up to his own tricks? By Samanth Subramanian. Read by David Bateson. Help support our independent journalism at theguardian.com/longreadpod

Blood Money
The "Black Swan Ballerina Murder"

Blood Money

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 11, 2025 43:48


SOURCES:  'Black Swan' Ashley Benefield sentenced for killing her estranged husband | FOX 13 Tampa Bay'Natalie Cochran is the Face of Evil': Victim Impact StatementsThe Case of the Black Swan (Part 2) | Full Episode - 911 call https://www.vanityfair.com/style/2021/09/when-doug-and-ashley-benefield-started-a-ballet-company-it-wasnt-supposed-to-end-in-death?srsltid=AfmBOoqo4GReC-Hdw4l6knCDhmeby2j3USf_hCIA_gf9cvykxa1_CT0bAshley Byers, swimsuit model, on Trump payroll as Florida office manager: Report - Washington TimesChristina Alessia Female Model Profile - Sarasota, Florida, US - 15 PhotosGeneral 1 — We Stand With AshleyThe Case of the Black Swan (Part 2) | Full EpisodeRed Flags: Don't Ignore These Warning Signs at Your Company

Straight Up with Stassi
Long-Term Greedy & Loving It: Beauty Products I Swear By

Straight Up with Stassi

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 9, 2025 60:11


Stassi is back with an episode meant to inspire you, packed with the ultimate beauty list of things she swears by. After getting flooded with DMs about her skin, makeup, hair, and style—she's finally revealing everything. From her seasonal Botox routine to the exfoliant that replaced retinol, her go-to lip liners, bronzers, moisturizers, tubing mascaras, perfume, and the EMS workout that changed her body in just 20 minutes. Literally everything!She also dives into her obsession with finance influencer Becca Bloom and what it means to live “long-term greedy,” shares a Black Swan-era internship story that might've launched Natalie Portman's movie poster moment, and why she builds every outfit around the perfect pair of shoes. This episode is your one-stop guide to all of Stassi's beauty must-haves.Shop all of Stassi's Faves on ShopMy: https://shopmy.us/stassiThank you for supporting our sponsors!Caraway: Visit Carawayhome.com/STASSI10 or use code STASSI10 at checkout to take an additional 10% off your next purchase.Hiya: Go to hiyahealth.com/STASSI to get 50% off your first orderNutrafol: Get $10 off your first month's subscription and free shipping when you go to Nutrafol.com and enter promo code STASSIQuince: Go to Quince.com/stassi for 365-day returns, plus free shipping on your order.Thrive Market: Visit thrivemarket.com/stassi to get 30% off your first order, plus a FREE $60 gift!Progressive: Visit Progressive.com to see if you could save on car insuranceSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

White Coat Investor Podcast
MtoM #216: Two Doc Couple Gets Back to Broke While Raising Kids in New York City and Finance 101: Mortgages

White Coat Investor Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 31, 2025 27:45


Today we have a two doc couple on the podcast who are back to broke. This couple lives in NYC, has two young children and had nearly $1 million in student loans at the end of training. They have worked hard to get on the same page, save and build wealth, and still have fun living their lives in the process. They talked about the need to know what you care about and what you don't. They care more about travel than a fancy expensive apartment. Knowing what you value is critical. After the interview we are talking about mortgages for Finance 101. Today's sponsor, Black Swan Real Estate, offers accredited investors access to private multifamily real estate investments with an investor-first model. Unlike most firms, Black Swan collects no GP-level fees and takes no profit until investors receive a full return of capital. Their physician-led team brings a hands-on approach to managing their $375M portfolio, ensuring every asset is optimized for cash flow, appreciation, and tax advantages. With a track record of meeting and exceeding return targets, Black Swan Real Estate provides stability and growth for long-term wealth building. Discover more at https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/blackswan The White Coat Investor has been helping doctors with their money since 2011. Our free financial planning resource covers a variety of topics from doctor mortgage loans and refinancing medical school loans to physician disability insurance and malpractice insurance. Learn about loan refinancing or consolidation, explore new investment strategies, and discover loan programs specifically aimed at helping doctors. If you're a high-income professional and ready to get a "fair shake" on Wall Street, The White Coat Investor channel is for you! Be a Guest on The Milestones to Millionaire Podcast: https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/milestones  Main Website: https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com  Student Loan Advice: https://studentloanadvice.com  YouTube: https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/youtube  Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/thewhitecoatinvestor  Twitter: https://twitter.com/WCInvestor  Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thewhitecoatinvestor  Subreddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/whitecoatinvestor  Online Courses: https://whitecoatinvestor.teachable.com  Newsletter: https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/free-monthly-newsletter