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    Trappin Tuesday's
    Emotional Reactions in the Market | Wallstreet Trapper (Episode 144) Trappin Tuesday's

    Trappin Tuesday's

    Play Episode Listen Later May 22, 2025 202:31


    Listen… the market don't move off logic alone—it moves off Emotion. Fear. Greed. FOMO. Panic. That's what separates the wolves from the sheep. See, when the red hits the screen, most folks fold. They start reacting emotionally, making decisions from survival mode instead of strategy. But the trap taught me something deep… control your emotions, and you control your wealth. The market will test your Patience, your Discipline, your Faith. It'll humble you, and then offer you abundance… if you can stay grounded. Every dip ain't a disaster—it's a divine opportunity. But only the spiritually aligned gon' see that. This ain't just stocks—this is self-mastery. When the world's panicking, the Trapper's plotting. 'Cause I ain't in it for the quick flip—I'm in it for legacy. Welcome to the other side of the market. Where Emotional Intelligence is the real bag. Tap in.Emotional Reactions in the Market | Wallstreet Trapper (Episode 144) Trappin Tuesday's

    Thoughts on the Market
    Midyear Global Outlook, Pt 2: Why the U.S. Still Leads Global Markets

    Thoughts on the Market

    Play Episode Listen Later May 22, 2025 8:47


    Our analysts Serena Tang and Seth Carpenter discuss Morgan Stanley's out-of-consensus view on U.S. exceptionalism, and how investors should position their portfolios given the current market uncertainty.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist.Serena: And I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's, Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist.Seth: Today, we're going to pick up the conversation where we left it off, talking about our mid-year outlook; but this time I get to ask Serena the questions.It's Thursday, May 22nd at 10am in New York.Serena, we're back for part two of this podcast. Let's jump in where we left off. We've seen a lot of policy surprise in the last six months. We've had a big sell off in the beginning of April, in part inspired by all of this uncertainty.What are you telling clients? What do you think investors should be doing? How should they be positioning their portfolios in the current circumstances?Serena: So, we are recommending going overweight in U.S. equities and going overweight in core fixed income like U.S. treasuries and like investment grade corporate credit. And we have a very strong preference for U.S. over rest of the world assets, except the dollar. Now I think for us, the main message is that you have global growth slowing, which is what you talked about yesterday.But you know, risky assets can look past the low growth and do well, while treasuries can look forward to the many Fed cuts you guys are expecting in 2026 and rally. But if I look at valuations that does suggest equities and credit have completely, almost priced out, growth slowdown odds. Meaning that I think there is still some downside and we'd recommend quality across the board.Seth: In your judgment then, looking around the world at all the different asset classes, how well, or perhaps how poorly, are those asset classes priced for the sort of macro views that we were just discussing?Serena: So I think the market that's probably least priced for the slowing economy that you and your team have been forecasting is really in the government bond space. I think the prospect of a lot more Fed cuts than what is currently priced into the market will lower government bond yields, particularly starting in 2026.As you know, our rates team has a target of 3.45 percent for U.S. Treasury 10-year yields, and 2.6 percent for U.S. Treasury two-year yields. Meaning that we also get a steeper curve by this time next year. And this translates to more than 10 percent of total returns for U.S. Treasuries – very attractive; in large part because the markets aren't priced for the Fed scenario that you and your team are forecasting.Seth: Let me, then push a little bit on one of the things that I've been talking to clients about, or at least been asked about, which is the dollar. The role of the dollar? U.S. exceptionalism? Is it real?Serena: Yeah that's a great question because I think this is where we are the most out of consensus. If you've noticed, all of our views right now really line up as us being pretty constructive on U.S. dollar assets. Like at a time when everyone's still really debating the end of U.S. exceptionalism. And we really push back against the idea that foreign investors would or should abandon U.S. assets significantly.There are very few alternatives to U.S. dollar assets right now. I mean, like if you look at investible stock market cap, U.S. is nearly five times the size of the next biggest market, which is Europe. And in the fixed income side of things, more than half of liquid high grade fixed income paper is in U.S. dollars.Now, even if there were significant outflows from U.S. dollar assets, there are very few places that money can find a haven, safe or otherwise. This is not to say there won't ever be any other alternatives to U.S. dollar assets in the future. But that shift in market size takes time, which means that TINA -- there is no alternative -- remains a theme for now.Seth: That view on the dollar weakening from here, it's baked into my team's economic forecast. It's baked into the strategy team's forecast across research. So then let me take it one step forward. What does all this mean about portfolio preferences, your recommendation for clients when when they're investing in assets that are not U.S. dollar denominated.Serena: You are right. I mean, if there's one U.S. asset that we just like, it's the U.S. dollar. So, you know, over the next 12 months we expect key factors, which drove the dollar strength. You know, positive growth, yield differentials relative to other G10 economies. Those factors will fade substantially. And we also think because of the political uncertainty in the U.S. currency hedging ratios on exposure to U.S. assets may increase, which could further pressure the U.S. dollar. So, our FX team sees euro/dollar at 1.25 and dollar/yen at 1.30 by the second quarter of 2026.Which means that we're really recommending non-U.S. dollar investors to buy U.S. stocks and fixed income on an FX hedge basis.Seth: If we look forward but focus just on the next, call it three to six months; what asset classes, or if you want, what regions around the world are best positioned, and what would you say to investors?Serena: So, you're right. I think there is a big difference between what we like over the next three to six months versus what we like over the next 12 months. Because if I look at U.S. equities and U.S. government bonds, both of which we're overweight on most of the gains, probably won't happen until the first half of next year because you have to have U.S. equities really feeling the tailwind of dollar weakness. And you need to have U.S. government bond investors to grow more confident that we will get all of those Fed cuts next year.What we do like over the next three to six months and feel pretty highly convicted on is really U.S. investment grade corporate credit, which we think can, you know, do well in the second half of this year and do well in the first half of next year.Seth: But then let's take a step back [be]cause I think investors around the world are wrestling with a lot of the same issues. They're talking to, you know, strategists like us at lots of different places. What would you say are our most out of consensus views right now?Serena: I think we're pretty out of consensus on our preference for U.S. and U.S. dollar assets. As I mentioned, there was still a huge debate on the end of U.S. exceptionalism. Now the other place where I think it's notable is we're much more bullish on U.S. treasuries than what's being priced into markets and where consensus is. And I think that's really been driven by your economics team being much more convicted on many Fed cuts in 2026.And the last thing I would point out here is, again, we're more bearish than consensus on the dollar. If I look at euro/dollar, if I look at dollar/yen, the kind of appreciation we're forecasting for at around through 10 percent, is higher than I think what most investors are expecting at the moment.Now back to Seth. Given all of the uncertainty around U.S. fiscal, trade, and industrial policy, what indicators are you watching to assess whether global growth is becoming more fragile or more resilient?Seth: Yeah, it's a great question. It's always difficult to monitor in real time how things are going, especially with these sorts of shocks. We are looking at a bunch of the shipping data to see how trade flows are going. There was clearly some front-running into the United States of imports to try to get ahead of tariffs. There's got to be some payback for that. I think the question becomes where do we settle in when it comes to trade?I'm going to be looking in the U.S. at the labor market to see signs of reduced demand for labor. But also try to pay attention to what's going on with the supply of labor from immigration restriction. And then there are all the normal indicators about spending, especially consumer spending. Consumer spending tends to drive a lot of the big developed market economies around the world and how well that holds up or doesn't. That's going to be key to the overall outlook.Serena: Thank you so much, Seth. Thanks for taking the time to talk.Seth: Serena, I could talk to you all day.Serena: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

    Christ in Prophecy
    What Life Will Be Like When Jesus Reigns on Earth

    Christ in Prophecy

    Play Episode Listen Later May 22, 2025


    What will life be like when Jesus reigns on Earth? Find out as Dr. Nathan Jones is interviewed on In the Market with Janet Parshall!

    Freakonomics Radio
    How to Succeed at Failing, Part 4: Extreme Resiliency (Update)

    Freakonomics Radio

    Play Episode Listen Later May 21, 2025 52:50


    Everyone makes mistakes. How do we learn from them? Lessons from the classroom, the Air Force, and the world's deadliest infectious disease. SOURCES:Will Coleman, founder and C.E.O. of Alto.Amy Edmondson, professor of leadership management at Harvard Business School.Babak Javid, physician-scientist and associate director of the University of California, San Francisco Center for Tuberculosis.Gary Klein, cognitive psychologist and pioneer in the field of naturalistic decision making.Theresa MacPhail, medical anthropologist and associate professor of science & technology studies at the Stevens Institute of Technology.Roy Shalem, lecturer at Tel Aviv University.Samuel West, curator and founder of The Museum of Failure. RESOURCES:"A Golf Club Urinal, Colgate Lasagna and the Bitter Fight Over the Museum of Failure," by Zusha Elinson (Wall Street Journal, 2025).Right Kind of Wrong: The Science of Failing Well, by Amy Edmondson (2023).“You Think Failure Is Hard? So Is Learning From It,” by Lauren Eskreis-Winkler and Ayelet Fishbach (Perspectives on Psychological Science, 2022).“The Market for R&D Failures,” by Manuel Trajtenberg and Roy Shalem (SSRN, 2010).“Performing a Project Premortem,” by Gary Klein (Harvard Business Review, 2007). EXTRAS:"The Deadliest Disease in Human History," by People I (Mostly) Admire (2025).“How to Succeed at Failing,” series by Freakonomics Radio (2023).“Moncef Slaoui: ‘It's Unfortunate That It Takes a Crisis for This to Happen,'” by People I (Mostly) Admire (2020).

    Thoughts on the Market
    Midyear Global Outlook, Pt 1: Skewing to the Downside

    Thoughts on the Market

    Play Episode Listen Later May 21, 2025 10:09


    Our analysts Seth Carpenter and Serena Tang discuss why they believe the global economy is set to slow meaningfully in the second half of 2025.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Serena: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's, Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist.Seth: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist.Serena: Today we'll discuss Morgan Stanley's midyear outlook for the global economy and markets.It's Wednesday, May 21st at 10am in New York.Seth, you published a year ahead outlook last November. Since President Trump took office back in January, there's been pretty significant policy and economic uncertainty and quite a few surprises. With this in mind, what is your current outlook for the global economy for the second half of this year and into 2026.Seth: So, we titled the outlook Skewed to the Downside because we really do think the U.S. economy, the global economy, is set to slow meaningfully from where we were coming into this year. Let's start with the U.S.As you said, policy changes came in a lot this year since the new administration took over. I would say the two key ones from a macro perspective so far have been trade policy and immigration policy.Tariffs have gone up, tariffs have gone down, tariffs have been suspended. Right now, what we think is going to ultimately take place is that we will see persistent, notable tariffs on China, lower tariffs on the rest of the world, and then we'll have to see how things evolve. What does that mean? Well, it means for the U.S. higher inflation and lower growth. In addition, immigration reform means that growth is going to slow because the growth rate of the labor force is going to slow.Now around the rest of the world, the tariff shock matters as well. When the U.S. puts in tariffs on its imports from other countries, that's negative demand for those other countries. So, we're looking for pretty weak growth in the euro area. Now, I will note, lots of people were excited about possible expansionary fiscal policy in Germany, and we think that's still there. We just don't think it's enough to give the euro area robust growth.In Asia, China's a main driver of the economy. China is a big recipient of these tariffs. We think the deflation cycle that we expected in China keeps going on. This reduction in demand from the U.S. is not going to help, but there'll probably be a little bit at the margin offsetting fiscal policy.So, what does that mean put together? Lackluster growth in China. Call it 4 percent slow growth for yet another year. Overall, the global economy should step down. Will it be a recession? That's one of the key questions that we hear from clients, but we don't think so. Not quite. Just a meaningful step downSerena: Interesting. Any particular regions that seem to be bright spots or surprises -- or perhaps have seen the biggest shift in your outlook?Seth: I guess I'd flag two potential bright spots around the world. The first is India. India has been, for us, a favorite. It will have the highest growth rate of any economy that we have in our coverage area. And because it's such a big economy, that's part of why the global economy can't lose that much steam. India has lots going for it. There are cyclical factors boosting growth in the near term. But there are also longer-term structural policy driven reasons to think that Indian growth will stay solid for the foreseeable future.I guess I'd also throw in Japan. Now its growth rate isn't going to be anywhere near the kind of growth in number terms that we're going to see from India. But this has to be taken in the context of 25 years of essentially zero growth of nominal GDP. The reflationary cycle that we think started a couple years ago remains intact, even with the tariff shock. And so, we're pretty optimistic still that Japanese reflation will continue.Serena: And to what extent are U.S. tariffs contributing to global inflationary pressures? I mean, how do you expect the Fed and other central banks to respond?Seth: The tariffs are imposed by the United States on most of the imports coming into the country, whereas other countries, maybe they have some retaliatory tariffs just against the U.S., but definitely not as broad as the U.S. That means for the U.S. tariffs are going to drive up inflation domestically and drive down growth, whereas for the rest of the world, it's mostly just a negative demand shock. So, they will be disinflationary for the rest of the world and pushing down growth.What does that mean for central banks? Well, outside of the U.S., central banks are going to see this as slowing aggregate demand, and so it's pretty clear what it is that they want to do. If they were hiking, they can stop hiking. If they were going to hold steady, they can lower rates a little bit. And if they were already lowering interest rates like the European Central Bank, well they can probably keep going with that without having to worry. And that's why we think the ECB is going to lower its policy rate to probably 1.5 percent and maybe even lower, which is below where the market is expecting things.Now for the Fed, things are much more tricky. The Fed cares about inflation, the Fed cares about U.S. growth, and both of those variables are going in the opposite direction of what they want over the rest of this forecast. Right now, inflation's too high for the Fed, and history shows that inflation goes up first with tariffs before the growth rate hits. So, the Fed's probably going to wait until the hard data show a bigger slowdown in the economy, a worsening. And the labor market. That is a bigger concern for them than the already too high inflation that is set to rise further over the rest of the year.Serena: And in your view, how does trade policy uncertainty influence business investment, particularly in export-oriented industries or in economies tightly linked to U.S. demand?Seth: Yeah. I think it has to be negative and therein lies one of the biggest challenges is just how negative. And I can't say for sure. But what we do know is that an uncertainty tends to be very negative for business investment spending decisions. If you're trying to make a decision, should I build a new factory?This is something that's going to have a long life to it, and you're going to get benefits hopefully for several years. How big are those benefits relative to the cost? Well, right now it's not at all clear, and so there's an option value to waiting.And we think that uncertainty is depressing investment decisions right now. I think it has to affect export-oriented industries. There's a lot of questions about what sort of retaliatory tariffs, other countries might impose.But it also affects domestic driven businesses because, well, they're going to have to see what their demand is. And some of the ones that are just focused on the U.S. economy are selling imported goods. So, it affects businesses across the board. Serena: Right. And how do U.S. tariff hikes spill over into emerging markets, and how might these countries buffer against these shocks?Seth: Yeah, I think there's a range of outcomes and the range is as wide as there are different countries. If you stay close to home. Take Mexico. Mexico is a big trading partner with the U.S. and early on in this whole tariff discussion, they were actually the targets of lots of tariff threats. That could have hurt them directly because there'd be less demand for their exports to the United States.Now we've got some resolution. We have the trade agreement with Canada and Mexico, and most of Mexico's exports to the U.S. are exempt under those conditions. However, the indirect effect is important as well. Mexico is very attached to the U.S. economy, and so as the U.S. economy slows because of these tariffs, the Mexican economy will slow as well.But there's also an indirect effect through currency markets, and I think this is a channel that's more broadly applicable across EM. If the Fed is going to be on hold, like we think holding interest rates higher for longer than the market might currently think, that means that EM central banks who might want to lower their policy rate to support their economy are going to be caught in a bit of a bind.They can't afford to take the risks that their currency will misbehave if they ease too much too far ahead of the Fed. And so, I think there is a little bit of a constraint for EM central banks, thinking about how much can I attend to domestic matters and how much do I have to pay attention to external matters?Serena: Now, I know forecasting economic growth is difficult in even the best of times, and this has been a period of exceptional volatility. How are you and your economic colleagues factoring all of this uncertainty?Seth: It's a great question and luminary minds like Neils Bohr, the Nobel Laureate in physics, and Yogi Berra, everyone's favorite prophet, have both said, ‘Forecasting is hard, especially about the future.' And this time, as you note, is even more so. So, what can we do? We try to come up with as many different scenarios as we can. We ask ourselves not just what's the most likely outcome, because there's uncertainty. The policy changes could come fast and furious. We also try to ask ourselves, if tariffs were to go back up from where they are now, how would that outcome turn out. If tariffs were to go away entirely, how would that turn out?You have to start thinking more and more, I think, in terms of scenarios.Serena:  And does this, in your view, change how much or how little investors should focus on the macro economy?Seth: Well, I think it means that investors have to focus every bit as much on the macro economy as they have in the past. I think it's undeniable that if we're right – and the U.S. economy slows down materially, and the global economy slows down with it – longer-term interest rates are probably going to come down along the lines of what our colleagues in interest rate strategy think. That makes a lot of sense to me. I think the trickier part though is knowing where the macro economy is going.We've got our forecast, but we are ready to make a revision if the facts change. And I think that's the trickier part for investors. The macro economy still matters but having a lot of conviction about where it's going, and as a result, what it means for asset prices? Well, that's the trickier part.Serena, you've been asking me lots of questions and they've been great questions, but I'm going to turn the table. I'm going to start asking questions right back to you.But we probably have to save that for another episode. So, let's pause it there.Serena: That sounds great Seth.Seth: And to the people listening, I want to say thanks for listening. And if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or a colleague today.

    Millionaire Mindcast
    Trump's Tax Bombshell, Biden's Diagnosis, & the Death of Recession Hype | Money Moves

    Millionaire Mindcast

    Play Episode Listen Later May 21, 2025 63:47


    Real Estate News: Real Estate Investing Podcast
    Housing Inventory Surges, Yet Buyers Wait on Lower Rates

    Real Estate News: Real Estate Investing Podcast

    Play Episode Listen Later May 21, 2025 3:32


    Housing inventory is surging across the U.S., with new listings up over 11% and total active listings rising more than 30% year-over-year. But despite more homes hitting the market, many buyers are still on the sidelines—held back by high mortgage rates and ongoing affordability concerns. In this episode, Kathy Fettke breaks down the latest data from Realtor.com's Weekly Housing Trends Report and explains why increased supply isn't translating into stronger demand. You'll also hear insights on inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and how buyer sentiment is shifting as the typical home spends longer on the market. LINKS Download Your Free Top 5 Cities to Invest in 2025 PDF!https://www.realwealth.com/1500 JOIN RealWealth® FOR FREE https://realwealth.com/join-step-1 FOLLOW OUR PODCASTS Real Wealth Show: Real Estate Investing Podcast https://link.chtbl.com/RWS Real Estate News: Real Estate Investing Podcast: https://link.chtbl.com/REN SOURCE: https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/mortgage-interest-rates-now-may-8-2025/  TOPICS DISCUSSED: 00:00 Housing Inventory 00:27 Realtor.com's New Report 00:54 Total Active Listings 01:25 Economic Indications 02:00 Days on Market 02:18 Home Pricing 02:40 Buyer Activity   

    DH Unplugged
    DHUnplugged: Big and Beautiful (#743)

    DH Unplugged

    Play Episode Listen Later May 21, 2025 61:02


    The dreaded downgrade. Biden's health in the spotlight. The big and beautiful Tax bill making its way through the sausage factory PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter  Warm-Up - The dreaded downgrade - Biden's health in the spotlight - Tax bill making its way through the sausage factory - China continues to stimulate Markets - Yields - moving up after worrying signs for US debt levels - Stocks posting big gains for May - Bitcoin surges past $100k - Our debt load is untenable - great chart to consider The Big Beautiful Bill - The bill eliminates taxes on tips and overtime. - The bill achieves "no tax on social security" by increasing deductions for seniors on the program. - The bill eliminates several green energy spending programs and ends the EV tax credit early. - The bill makes auto loan interest tax deductible. - The bill raises the debt ceiling by $4 trillion. - The bill raises the State and Local Tax Deduction to $30,000 for people making $400K or less. - The bill makes changes to the IRS free tax filing program, pending review by a task force. - The bill includes tax on college endowments and private foundations. - The bill includes reforms for how pharmacy benefit managers do business with the government. - The bill creates a new savings account for children, and $1000 of funding will be provided. - The bill raises the child tax credit to $2500 from $2000. USD DEBT Moody's - U.S. Treasury yields spiked on Monday after Moody's downgraded the U.S.' credit rating, citing fiscal concerns. - That brings it down one notch from Aaa — the highest score — to Aa1 - The first time since the  initial rating back in 1919 that Moody's made a change - Interesting timing - in the middle of a big spending package process - --- maybe they are sending a message -"This is a major symbolic move as Moody's were the last of the major rating agencies to have the US at the top rating," Deutsche Bank analysts said in a note. Market reaction - Futures fell in late trade after the close of the markets- when it was announced - Bonds - long end moved. --- 30 yr treasuries up over 5% ---- 30 yer mortgage rates over 7% - Markets - yawned and turned on the open after a 1.5% love lower on the futures Bessent reaction -Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview on NBC News' "Meet the Press" that Moody's Ratings were a "lagging indicator" after the group downgraded the U.S.' credit rating by a notch from the highest level. -"I think that Moody's is a lagging indicator," Bessent said Sunday. "I think that's what everyone thinks of credit agencies." - He asserted that the downgrade was related to the Biden administration's spending policies - Is that right? China - Stimulating - China cut its key lending rates by 10 basis points on Tuesday, as Beijing ramps up efforts to boost its economy at a time when trade tensions threaten to derail growth. - The People's Bank of China trimmed the 1-year loan prime rate to 3.0% from 3.1%, and the 5-year LPR to 3.5% from 3.6%. US Steel still in play - Nippon Steel plans to invest $14 billion in U.S. Steel's operations including up to $4 billion in a new steel mill if the Trump administration green lights its bid for the iconic U.S. company, according to a document and three people familiar with the matter. - Under details of the plan included in the document, the company will plow $11 billion into U.S. Steel's infrastructure through 2028. That includes $1 billion in a green field site, which is expected to grow by $3 billion over the following years and has not been previously reported. - There is  a deadline of May 21st for a national security review - then T...

    Destination On The Left
    429. Revolutionizing the Home Exchange Market, with Emmanuel Arnaud

    Destination On The Left

    Play Episode Listen Later May 21, 2025 39:00


    On this episode of Destination on the Left, I talk with Emmanuel Arnaud, CEO of HomeExchange. He shares the remarkable journey of how he went from being a frustrated user of traditional home exchange platforms to founding his own company. We dig into the heart of the sharing economy and how home exchanging not only makes travel more accessible and sustainable but also turns local hosts into enthusiastic ambassadors for their communities. What You Will Learn in This Episode: How Emmanuel turned his personal frustration as a home swap user into launching Guest to Guest and ultimately becoming CEO of HomeExchange Why home exchanging appeals to a wide range of travelers and how it can offer deeper, more affordable, and authentic travel experiences What makes HomeExchange different from short-term rentals, and how the unique “points system” and non-reciprocal exchanges expand travel opportunities How Emmanuel and his team nurture their global community of members Why HomeExchange hosts can be powerful ambassadors for their local destinations How Emmanuel has collaborated with former competitors From Disgruntled Traveler to Industry Leader Emmanuel's entry into the world of home exchanging is a story familiar to many entrepreneurs: frustration with an existing system that didn't quite meet personal needs. As a frequent traveler, Emmanuel found traditional home swapping too restrictive; exchanges were rarely nonreciprocal, limiting options for hosts and guests. This pain point inspired him to launch Guest to Guest in 2011, introducing a points-based, flexible model. Their acquisition of HomeExchange in 2017 established them as a global leader, with more than 220,000 homes in 154 countries—proof of the growing appeal of community-based, peer-to-peer hospitality. Building Relationships Traditional hospitality often centers on transactions: a guest pays, a host provides a service. In contrast, HomeExchange creates genuine relationships. Members often greet guests with welcome gestures like local wine or flowers, offer insider tips about the neighborhood, and sometimes even entrust pets or cars to visitors. This trust-based model enriches the travel experience, offering a cultural exchange rarely found in commercial lodging. HomeExchange is about joining a global network of like-minded travelers who value trust, generosity, and cultural curiosity. This is why Emmanuel invests in nurturing this community through active forums, strict adherence to shared values, and recognition of dedicated members, some of whom have facilitated dozens of exchanges over decades. HomeExchange as a Local and Global Ambassador One of the most beautiful things about HomeExchange is that hosts become ambassadors for their communities, recommending hidden gems and helping guests experience destinations like locals. The diversity of available homes also means travelers disperse beyond city centers, supporting lesser-known neighborhoods and fostering more equitable economic growth. By providing crowdsourced maps of host recommendations and promoting under-the-radar destinations, HomeExchange helps travelers explore destinations beyond the usual tourist hotspots, an increasingly important approach as cities grapple with unsustainable visitor volumes. Resources: Website: www.homeexchange.com Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/homeexchangecom Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/homeexchangecom/ We value your thoughts and feedback and would love to hear from you. Leave us a review on your favorite streaming platform to let us know what you want to hear more o​f. Here is a quick tutorial on how to leave us a rating and review on iTunes!

    E46: Ex-Plaid CTO on Why Tax is the Ultimate AI Challenge, with Jean-Denis Greze

    Play Episode Listen Later May 21, 2025 53:50


    In this episode, Sasha Orloff talks with Jean-Denis Greze, Co-founder and CEO of Town, about building an AI-powered tax solution for SMBs, exploring the startup's origin, the balance between automation and human expertise, strategic market targeting, funding insights, and the transformative potential of AI in tax preparation. -- SPONSORS: Notion Boost your startup with Notion—the ultimate connected workspace trusted by thousands worldwide! From engineering specs to onboarding and fundraising, Notion keeps your team organized and efficient. For a limited time, get 6 months of Notion AI FREE to supercharge your workflow. Claim your offer now at ⁠⁠https://notion.com/startups/puzzle⁠⁠ Puzzle

    Maino and the Mayor
    Farmer’s Market Kickoff (Hour 1)

    Maino and the Mayor

    Play Episode Listen Later May 21, 2025 44:02


    Jim and John talk about Meditation and National Tea Day before diving into a discussion about Brett Favre's controversial documentary on Netflix, which they critique for lacking new insights and not balancing Favre's negative press with his charitable acts. Nostalgia hits with talk of classic TV shows like Cheers and the comedic genius of Leslie Nielsen. Cheese Curd Nick joins to preview his food offerings at the Farmer's Market on Broadway. The market runs every Wednesday night from 3-8pm. Maino and the Mayor is a part of the Civic Media radio network and airs Monday through Friday from 6-9 am on WGBW in Green Bay and on WISS in Appleton/Oshkosh. Subscribe to the podcast to be sure not to miss out on a single episode! To learn more about the show and all of the programming across the Civic Media network, head over to https://civicmedia.us/shows to see the entire broadcast lineup. Follow the show on Facebook and X to keep up with Maino and the Mayor! Guest: Nick Slupski

    Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast
    Europe Market Open: Geopols & US fiscal updates in focus, DXY continues to falter

    Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast

    Play Episode Listen Later May 21, 2025 4:49


    APAC stocks traded with a mild positive bias as the region mostly shrugged off the lacklustre lead from Wall St.US House Speaker Johnson said a Thursday tax bill floor vote is still realistic.European equity futures indicate a quiet cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future flat after the cash market closed with gains of 0.5% on Tuesday.DXY is extending its losing streak for a third session, EUR/USD is back above 1.13, Cable sits above 1.34 ahead of UK CPI.Israel is preparing a possible strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, according to CNN; not clear whether Israeli leaders have made a final decision.Looking ahead, highlights include UK CPI, G7 Central Bank and Finance Ministers Meeting, ECB's Lagarde, Lane, Nagel & Cipollone, Fed's Barkin & Bowman, Supply from UK, Germany & US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

    Thoughts on the Market
    Tokyo Summit: Consumer Resilience and Trade Uncertainty in Japan

    Thoughts on the Market

    Play Episode Listen Later May 20, 2025 8:10


    Live from the Morgan Stanley Japan Summit, our analysts Chiwoong Lee and Sho Nakazawa discuss their outlook for the Japanese economy and stock market in light of the country's evolving trade partnerships with the U.S. and China.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Lee-san: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Chiwoong Lee, Principal Global Economist at Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities.Nakazawa-san: And I'm Sho Nakazawa, Japan Equity Strategist at Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities.Lee-san: Today we're coming to you live from the Morgan Stanley Japan Summit in Tokyo. And we'll be sharing our views on Japan in the context of global economic growth. We will also focus on Japan's position vis-à-vis its two largest trading partners, the U.S. and China.It's Tuesday, May 20, at 3pm in Tokyo.Lee-san: Nakazawa-san, you and I both have been talking with a large number of clients here at the summit. Based on your conversations, what issues are most top of mind right now?Nakazawa-san: There are many inquiries about how to position because of the uncertainty of U.S. trade policy and the investment strategy for governance reform. These are both catalysts for Japan. And in Japan, there are multiple governance investment angles, with increasing interest in the removal of parent-child listings, which is when a parent company and a subsidiary company are both listed on an exchange. This reform [would] remove the subsidiaries. So, clients are very focused on who will be the next candidate for the removal of a parent-child listing.And what are you hearing from clients on your side, Lee-san?Lee-san: I would say the most frequent questions we received were regarding the Trump administration's policies, of course. While the reciprocal tariffs have been somewhat relaxed compared to the initial announcements, they still remain very high; and there was a strong focus on their negative impact on the U.S. economy and the global economy, including Japan. Of course, external demand is critical for Japanese economy, but when we pointed out the resilience of domestic demand, many investors seemed to agree with that view.Nakazawa-san: How do investors' views square with your outlook for the global economy over the rest of the year?Lee-san: Well, there was broad consensus that tariffs and policy uncertainty are negatively affecting trade and investment activities across countries. In particular, there is concern about the impact on investment. As Former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke wrote in his papers in [the] 1980s, uncertainty tends to delay investment decisions. However, I got the impression that views varied on just how sensitive investment behavior is to this uncertainty.Nakazawa-san: How significant are U.S. tariffs on global economy including Japan both near-term and longer-term?Lee-san: The negative effects on the global economy through trade and investment are certainly important, but the most critical issue is the impact on the U.S. economy. Tariffs essentially act as a tax burden on U.S. consumers and businesses.For example, in 2018, there was some impact on prices, but the more significant effect was on business production and employment. Now, with even higher tariff rates, the impact on inflation and economic activity is expected to be even greater. Given the inflationary pressures from tariffs, we believe the Fed will find it difficult to cut rates in 2025. On the other hand, once it becomes feasible, likely in 2026, we anticipate the Fed will need to implement substantial rate cuts.Lee-san: So, Nakazawa-san, how has the Japanese stock market reacted to U.S. tariffs?Nakazawa-san: Investors positioning have skewed sharply to domestic-oriented non-manufacturing sectors since the U.S. government's announcement of reciprocal tariffs on April 2nd. Tariff talks with some nations have achieved some progress at this stage, spurring buybacks of export-oriented manufacturer shares. However, the screening by our analysts of the cumulative surplus returns against Japan's TOPIX index for around 500 stocks in their coverage universe, divided into stocks relatively vulnerable to tariff effects and those less impacted, finds a continued poor performance at the former. We believe it is important to enhance the portfolio's robustness by revising sector skews in accordance with any progress in the trade talks and adjusting long/short positioning with the sectors in line with the impact of the tariffs.Lee-san: I see. You recently revised your Topix index target, right. Can you quickly walk us through your call?Nakazawa-san:Yes, of course. We recently revised down our base case TOPIX target for end-2025 from 3,000 to 2,600. This revision was considered by several key factors: So first, our Japan economics team revised down its Japanese nominal growth forecast from 3.7% to 3.3%, reflecting implementation of reciprocal tariffs and lower growth forecasts for the U.S., China, and Europe. Second, our FX team lowered its USD/JPY target from 145 to 135 due to the risk of U.S. hard data taking a marked turn for the worse. The timing aligns with growing uncertainty on the business environment, which may lead firms to manage cash allocation more cautiously. So, this year might be a bit challenging for Japanese equities that I recommend staying defensive positioning with defensive non-manufacturing sectors overall.Nakazawa-san: And given tariff risks, do you see a change in the Bank of Japan's rate path for the rest of the year?Lee-san: Yeah well, external demand is a very important driver of Japanese economy. Even if tariffs on Japan do not rise significantly, auto tariffs, for example, remain in place and cannot be ignored. The earnings deterioration among export-oriented companies, especially in the auto sector, will take time for the Bank of Japan to assess in terms of its impact on winter bonuses and next spring's wage growth. If trade negotiations between the U.S. and countries including Japan make major progress by summer, a rate hike in the fall could be a risk scenario. However, our Japan teams' base case remains that the policy rate will be unchanged through 2026.Lee-san: How is the Japanese yen faring relative to the U.S. dollar, and how does it impact the Japanese stock market, Nakazawa-san?Nakazawa-san:I would say USD/JPY is not only driver for Japanese equities. Of course, USD/JPY still plays a key role in earnings, as our regression model suggests a 1% higher USD/JPY lifting TOPIX 0.5% on average. But this sensitivity has trended down over the past decade. A structural reason is that as value chain building close to final demand locations has lifted overseas production ratios, which implies continuous efforts of Japanese corporate optimizing global supply chain.That said, from sector allocation perspective, sectors showing greater resilience include domestic demand-driven sectors, such as foods, construction & materials, IT & services/others, transportation & logistics, and retails.Nakazawa-san: And finally, the trade relationship between Japan and China is one of the largest trading partnerships in the world. Are U.S. tariffs impacting this partnership in any way?Lee-san: That's a very difficult question, I have to say, but I think there are multiple angles to consider. Geopolitical risk remains to be a key focus, and in terms of the military alliance, Japan-U.S. relationships have been intact. At the same time, Japan faces increased pressure to meet U.S. demands. That said, Japan has been taking steps such as strengthening semiconductor manufacturing and increasing defense spending, so I believe there is a multifaceted evaluation which is necessary.Lee-san: That said, I think it's time to head back to the conference. Nakazawa-san, thanks for taking the time to talk.Nakazawa-san: Great speaking with you, Lee-san.Lee-san: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

    The Long View
    JL Collins: The (Still) Simple Path to Wealth

    The Long View

    Play Episode Listen Later May 20, 2025 56:47


    Hi, and welcome to The Long View. I'm Christine Benz, director of personal finance and retirement planning for Morningstar. Today on the podcast, we welcome back author and blogger JL Collins. JL's first book, The Simple Path to Wealth: Your road map to financial independence and a rich, free life, was published in 2016 and has since sold more than 1 million copies. He has recently come out with a second edition of the book, which his daughter, Jess, collaborated on. In 2023, he published another book called Pathfinders: Extraordinary Stories of People Like You on the Quest for Financial Independence.BackgroundBioThe Simple Path to Wealth (Revised & Expanded 2025 Edition): Your Road Map to Financial Independence and a Rich, Free LifePathfinders: Extraordinary Stories of People Like You on the Quest for Financial Independence—And How to Join ThemThe Simple Path to Wealth, 4% Rule, Inflation, and Stocks“Case Study #1: Putting the Simple Path to Wealth Into Action,” by JL Collins, jlcollinsnh.com, July 10, 2023.“Things Important, and Unimportant,” by JL Collins, jlcollinsnh.com, March 1, 2023.“Stocks—Part XIII: The 4% Rule, Withdrawal Rates and How Much Can I Spend Anyway?” by JL Collins, jlcollinsnh.com, Oct. 15, 2023.“Déjà Vu All Over Again,” by JL Collins, jlcollinshh.com, April 18, 2025.“Stocks—Part IV: The Big Ugly Event, Deflation and a Bit on Inflation,” by JL Collins, jlcollinsnh.com, Nov. 16, 2023.“Stocks—Part XXII: Stepping Away From REITs,” by JL Collins, jlcollinsnh.com, May 12, 2025.“Stocks—Part XXVII: Why I Don't Like Dollar Cost Averaging,” by JL Collins, jlcollinshn.com, Jan. 8, 2024.“Stocks—Part III: Most People Lose Money in the Market,” by JL Collins, jlcollinsnh.com, Nov. 16, 2023.“Time Machine and the Future Returns for Stocks,” by JL Collins, jlcollinsnh.com, July 10, 2023.Debt Paydown“Chainsaws and Credit Cards,” by JL Collins, jlcollinsnh.com, March 30, 2023.“Stocks—Part XXVIII: Debt – The Unacceptable Burden,” by JL Collins, jlcollinsnh.com, May 12, 2025.Other“JL Collins: The Case for Simplicity,” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, April 5, 2022.“JL Collins: Spotlighting the Many Paths to Financial Independence,” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, Oct. 31, 2023.Vanguard Total Stock Market Index VTSAXBill BengenMr. Money Mustache

    The Interchange
    $8 billion in clean energy projects were cancelled this year. Can the US clean energy market survive tariff uncertainty?

    The Interchange

    Play Episode Listen Later May 20, 2025 43:59


    The US is risking ceding global market share of clean energy to China, permanently.New tariffs, put in place one day then removed the next. Rising costs for everything along the supply chain. The US clean energy sector is navigating one of its most unpredictable phases yet. From solar to storage, how are developers and policymakers reacting to renewed trade tensions and their impact on the energy transition? “This isn't just about clean energy deployment. It's about whether the US will have a seat at the table in the future global energy economy,” says Leslie Abrahams, Deputy Director of the Energy Security and Climate Change Program at CSIS – the Center for Strategic & International Studies. She joins host Sylvia Leyva Martinez, a principal analyst covering global energy markets at Wood Mackenzie, to find out what the outlook is for US energy innovation. Escalating tariff policy is shaking investor confidence, altering supply chains, and putting the power firmly with China.Plus, in the second half of the show, Sylvia gets the developer perspective, from Joao Barreto, who is CEO of EDP Renewables' distributed generation business in North America. He explains how one of the world's largest clean energy developers is mitigating risk, adjusting their strategy, and building trust with manufacturers and offtakers amid unprecedented uncertainty.Sylvia, Leslie and Joao discuss:Why US$8 billion in clean energy projects were cancelled in Q1 2025, and what that signals to the marketHow US tariffs on Chinese batteries are backfiring on domestic manufacturingThe challenge of accelerating R&D while shutting out foreign investmentHow storage and solar developers are hedging their betsWhether the US risks ceding global market share to China permanentlyPower Play was developed by ExxonMobil to shine a light on the accomplishments of remarkable women and the men who uphold the importance of empowering others in the LNG and decarbonization industries. Nominations for the seventh annual Power Play Awards are now open, with four categories available: The Rising Star, The Pioneer, The Ambassador, and The Low Carbon Accelerator. Nominate a deserving candidate today! Nominations close May 30th. Find out more.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

    Talking Real Money
    $8 Trillion Turnaround

    Talking Real Money

    Play Episode Listen Later May 20, 2025 45:38


    Don returns from a exhausting, comedy-of-errors flight to discuss how the markets pulled an equally wild round trip—plunging, then rebounding to the tune of $8 trillion. He and Tom break down the April stock and bond tantrum, laugh off predictions of recession, and offer practical guidance for scared investors, risk-takers, and those tempted by annuities. Listener questions cover mortgages vs. investing, the role of fixed annuities, and a touching thank-you from a longtime fan who retired well thanks to Don's early radio shows. Oh, and Tom's now YouTube famous. Just ask his grandkids. 0:04 Don's cursed travel story: jet lag, delays, and onboard medical drama1:28 Welcome back—Tom's model aircraft museum returns2:48 Market rewind: sharp drop and $8T rebound3:55 April 8 market bottom; temper tantrum or bear tease?4:40 CNN Fear & Greed Index: from panic to euphoria in weeks6:27 Fan mail: “Planes, Trains & Cryptocurrency” and Tesla hate from a Lyft driver7:43 Don's Broadway singalong graduation trip to NYC9:01 Recession odds fall fast—tariffs rise faster11:27 Tom calls out the mayor's interest rate prediction logic13:01 Check your 401(k)? Maybe don't—unless you're learning your risk tolerance14:10 Don's “Tune Out the Noise” video hits 10+ million views16:43 Listener challenge: Why bash Fidelity annuities?18:47 Don's CD ladder vs. annuities—why he prefers federal over contractual guarantees20:10 Even “no load” annuities can be slippery—careful with the fine print21:51 TRM hits 1,648 episodes (and counting)22:44 Listener Bruce: From broke in 1989 to comfortably retired, thanks to Don24:17 Remember load funds? Why no-loads and ETFs rule now25:59 American Funds' ETF pivot: lipstick on a mutual fund28:36 Listener question: Invest inheritance or pay off 6.6% mortgage?33:10 Roth IRA strategy, liquidity concerns, and investing at age 3536:17 Graduation singers belt Sinatra's “New York, New York” at Radio City38:21 Reminder: Free portfolio help at TalkingRealMoney.com39:53 End-of-show degeneracy: full monty jokes, sensitivity training, and accidental innuendo Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    The Raquel Show
    What I'd Do Differently If I Was a New Agent in Today's Market

    The Raquel Show

    Play Episode Listen Later May 20, 2025 9:30


    FT News Briefing
    A warning shot to the Treasuries market

    FT News Briefing

    Play Episode Listen Later May 20, 2025 10:57


    The US may be stepping back from its role as mediator in the war in Ukraine, and US long-term borrowing costs rose to their highest level since late 2023 on Monday. US drugmaker Regeneron has agreed to buy 23andMe out of bankruptcy, and the EU and the UK have announced a deal to “reset” their relationship at a summit in London. Mentioned in this podcast:Trump leaves Russia and Ukraine to settle war in talks US borrowing costs climb after Moody's downgrade 23andMe sold out of bankruptcy to RegeneronUK-EU post-Brexit reset: the key pointsToday's FT News Briefing was produced by Sonja Hutson, Kasia Broussalian, Lulu Smyth, and Marc Filippino. Additional help from Sam Giovinco, Michael Lello, David da Silva and Gavin Kallmann. Topher Forhecz is the FT's acting co-head of audio. The show's theme song is by Metaphor Music. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

    The Speaking Show
    475: Market Eminence Book Sneak Peek

    The Speaking Show

    Play Episode Listen Later May 20, 2025 19:33


    In this deep dive, we explore key actionable strategies from David Newman's book 'Market Eminence.' Targeted towards CEOs, founders, and professional services firm owners, the episode focuses on boosting professional standing and business growth. Key strategies discussed include defining a unique perspective (slant), positioning as a visionary (future), owning industry thinking, resisting detrimental industry practices, building brand certainty through proof, and cultivating brand gravity to attract high-quality opportunities.

    Farm Small Farm Smart
    Market Gardening Profits Exposed: The Truth About Profits in Small-Scale Farming (MFB 03)

    Farm Small Farm Smart

    Play Episode Listen Later May 20, 2025 30:15


    Can you turn a small plot into a thriving business? The answer is: yes, you can! With our comprehensive guide to market gardening, learn everything from crop selection and intensive cultivation methods to direct marketing strategies and how to turn a profit.  Subscribe for more content on sustainable farming, market farming tips, and business insights!   Get market farming tools, seeds, and supplies at Modern Grower. Follow Modern Grower:  Instagram  Instagram Listen to other podcasts on the Modern Grower Podcast Network:  Carrot Cashflow  Farm Small Farm Smart  Farm Small Farm Smart Daily  The Growing Microgreens Podcast  The Urban Farmer Podcast  The Rookie Farmer Podcast  In Search of Soil Podcast Check out Diego's books:  Sell Everything You Grow on Amazon   Ready Farmer One on Amazon **** Modern Grower and Diego Footer participate in the Amazon Services LLC. Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program designed to provide a means for sites to earn advertising fees by advertising and linking to Amazon.com.

    Halftime Report
    The Road to Record Highs 5/20/25

    Halftime Report

    Play Episode Listen Later May 20, 2025 44:05


    Frank Holland and the Investment Committee discuss the road to record high as stocks take a breather following six straight days of gains for the S&P 500. Plus, Josh Brown has an update to one of his Best Stocks in the Market group. And later, the Committee share their latest portfolio moves. Investment Committee Disclosures

    Market Signals by LPL Financial
    Does Moody's U.S. Debt Downgrade Even Matter? | LPL Market Signals

    Market Signals by LPL Financial

    Play Episode Listen Later May 20, 2025 32:01


    In the latest Market Signals podcast, LPL Research's Chief Equity Strategist, Jeffrey Buchbinder, and LPL Research's Chief Economist, Jeffrey Roach, discuss the news over the weekend that credit rating agency Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating. They also share some thoughts on the durability of U.S. exceptionalism. Tracking: #742191

    The Proffitt Podcast
    How to Succeed in Digital Marketing: Lessons From 20 Years

    The Proffitt Podcast

    Play Episode Listen Later May 20, 2025 14:27 Transcription Available


    Send Krystal a Text Message.After 20 years in marketing, I'm sharing exactly what I would do differently if I were starting over today in 2025. These three fundamental strategies will help you stand out in the digital marketing landscape and achieve sustainable success without burning out.• Storytelling is your competitive advantage against AI and other creators, as your unique experiences cannot be replicated• The PREPM method (Plan, Record, Edit, Publish, Market) provides a proven system that scales across all content types• Focus on what matters most to your customers rather than chasing every new trend• Invest in continuous learning, but remember that clarity comes from taking action, not just thinking• Treat marketing like a marathon, not a sprint—be strategic and consistent rather than trying to be everywhere at once• You don't need perfect strategies—you just need to start somewhere and keep improvingLike and subscribe to get more content like this delivered directly to you, and check out our Digital Marketing Tips for Business Owners playlist for additional resources.Click the "Send Krystal a Text Message" link above to send us your questions, comments, and feedback on the show! (Pssst...we'll do giveaways in upcoming episodes so make sure you leave your name & podcast title.)

    The Modern Acre | Ag Built Different
    406: The Untold History of the Disappearing American Farmer

    The Modern Acre | Ag Built Different

    Play Episode Listen Later May 20, 2025 33:34


    Tim and Tyler talk to Brian Reisinger about his book Land Rich, Cash Poor: My Family's Hope and The Untold History Of The Disappearing American Farmer. — This episode is presented by PF Partners. Unlock the exclusive AgTech Go-to-Market webinar HERE. — Links Brian Reisinger - https://www.brian-reisinger.com  The Modern Acre Co-op - https://themodernacre.com/co-op 

    Manufacturing Happy Hour
    237: How Higher Education Is Shaping the Future of Manufacturing with MIT's Dr. John Liu

    Manufacturing Happy Hour

    Play Episode Listen Later May 20, 2025 52:47


    What role does higher ed play in making sure manufacturing thrives? Universities and other higher ed hubs are playing a leading role in shaping the future of this industry. And MIT is a prime example of this, with specialist courses to help graduates and professionals get the skills they need to bring new innovations to life. We're joined by the Principal Investigator of MIT's LEAP Group (Learning Engineering and Practice), Dr. John Liu. As someone deeply involved in building much-needed programs, including the MicroMasters and TechAMP, we asked for his take on manufacturing today, what we can learn from history, and higher ed's role in revitalizing the industry. We also talk about the hot topic of globalization and offshoring and what research says about the impact on the U.S. as an innovator economy. In this episode, find out:An introduction to LEAP Group and Dr. John's role in researching and leading programs to help the future of manufacturing leaders How John's career pivoted to the manufacturing side of techWhat people should know about MIT's history in manufacturing, including innovative practices and technologies we still use todayWhat can we learn from history that applies to manufacturing in today's AI-driven world? The impact of globalization and the conclusions that an MIT report came to about its impact on an innovator economy How manufacturing has changed since the report was published and what John would add that's relevant today What is MIT doing to help educate and drive innovation across manufacturing and techDr. John explains his involvement in the MicroMasters program as its founder The four principles of manufacturing that remain universal and timelessHow MIT's programs differ from trade or regular tech schools How the TechAMP program differs from MicroMasters as a program for professionals already in the industry Dr. John gives an overview of MIT's collaborations with the DoD and Manufacturing USA The important role that higher ed plays in reindustrialization Enjoying the show? Please leave us a review here. Even one sentence helps. It's feedback from Manufacturing All-Stars like you that keeps us going!Tweetable Quotes:"If we just continue to set up walls, we'll never learn and innovate. And so how do we, instead of setting up walls, reach across walls and learn from all the innovation that's happening?""We lose our ability to innovate if we produce elsewhere. Why? Because when you actually are forced to go from prototype to make a lot of these things, the design changes in all these sorts of ways... That's a whole type of innovation that is not as celebrated in our country today.""No matter what age, what company, you always have to be able to control four things: manufacturing processes, manufacturing systems, the supply, the people and finances. Always these four."Links & mentions:The Machine That Changed the World, a book written by MIT professors about finding success in automotive manufacturing, which led to the popularity of lean manufacturingMaking in America: From Innovation to Market, a book written by MIT scientists, engineers and social scientists about rebuilding the industrial landscape in the U.S.TechAMP, a 12-month program at MIT LEAP Group to bridge the gap between technicians and engineers

    Strategy Simplified
    S18E1: Home Depot Keeps Prices Steady - or Does it? (Market Outsiders: May 20, 2025)

    Strategy Simplified

    Play Episode Listen Later May 20, 2025 18:38


    Send us a textIn this Tuesday Market Outsiders episode, Jenny Rae and Namaan break down Home Depot's claim of holding prices steady despite new tariffs - while Walmart hikes prices.They dig into Home Depot's first earnings miss since 2020, stagnant basket sizes, and whether strong employment and rising home values are really sustaining consumer spending. From supplier pressure to diversification to a cooling housing market, they unpack what's really behind the headlines - and what it signals for the broader economy.Join Market Outsiders live every weekday at 9:15AM ET on LinkedIn and YouTube - and now, episodes are also available on Strategy Simplified every Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday.Want the full daily experience? Follow the new Market Outsiders podcast to get every episode, Monday through Friday.Subscribe to the new Market Outsiders feed (Apple, Spotify)Follow Management Consulted on LinkedIn and subscribe on YouTubeConnect with Namaan and Jenny Rae on LinkedInConnect With Management Consulted Schedule free 15min consultation with the MC Team. Watch the video version of the podcast on YouTube! Follow us on LinkedIn, Instagram, and TikTok for the latest updates and industry insights! Join an upcoming live event - case interviews demos, expert panels, and more. Email us (team@managementconsulted.com) with questions or feedback.

    The Investing Podcast
    Japanese Bond Auction & Impact of Tariffs | May 20, 2025 – Morning Market Briefing

    The Investing Podcast

    Play Episode Listen Later May 20, 2025 16:05


    Ben and Tom discuss last night's Japanese bond auction and the impact of tariffs. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST, visit:https://www.narwhal.com/blog/daily-market-briefingsPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

    The Dr. Will Show Podcast
    Lisa Cummings - Forrest Gump Your Signature Offer

    The Dr. Will Show Podcast

    Play Episode Listen Later May 20, 2025 48:04


    About Today's Guest, Lisa CummingsLisa has delivered events to over 24,000 participants, in-person in 14 countries. She's an MBA and a Gallup Certified Strengths coach. You can see her featured in places like Harvard Business Publishing, Training Magazine, and Forbes. She's the founder of Lead Through Strengths, and hosts a podcast by the same name.She helps independent coaches, trainers, and speakers build business skills like email marketing and selling confidently. Check out her mastermind membership program called Tools for Coaches. When she's not podcasting or working with coaches, you'll find her learning Spanish on Duolingo, hiking in Colorado, or playing drums in a rock band called Spiral Mischief.   ______________________________________________________________________ The Edupreneur: Your Blueprint To Jumpstart And Scale Your Education BusinessYou've spent years in the classroom, leading PD, designing curriculum, and transforming how students learn. Now, it's time to leverage that experience and build something for yourself. The Edupreneur isn't just another book—it's the playbook for educators who want to take their knowledge beyond the school walls and into a thriving business.I wrote this book because I've been where you are. I know what it's like to have the skills, the passion, and the drive but not know where to start. I break it all down—the mindset shifts, the business models, the pricing strategies, and the branding moves that will help you position yourself as a leader in this space.Inside, you'll learn how to:✅ Turn your expertise into income streams—without feeling like a sellout✅ Build a personal brand that commands respect (and top dollar)✅ Market your work in a way that feels natural and impactful✅ Navigate the business side of edupreneurship, from pricing to partnershipsWhether you want to consult, create courses, write books, or launch a podcast, this book will help you get there. Stop waiting for permission. Start building your own table.

    The Teacher Biz Podcast
    102: The Introvert's Guide to a Sustainable, Hustle-Free Business with Tara Reid

    The Teacher Biz Podcast

    Play Episode Listen Later May 20, 2025 17:40


    THE DIGITAL PRODUCTS THAT SELL SUMMITGet Your Free Ticket! → teacherbiz.com/summitTara Reid, Founder of the Introvertpreneur brand, is a business and marketing strategist dedicated to helping introverted entrepreneurs build sustainable, hustle-free businesses. With over 17 years of experience as an online entrepreneur and multiple six-figure businesses under her belt, Tara specializes in organic and evergreen marketing strategies that allow business owners to grow without burnout. In this episode, Tara explains how introverts can tap into their natural strengths (like thoughtfulness, intentionality, and deep focus) to build businesses that work with their energy, not against it. She talks about the power of organic marketing, why she loves SEO and evergreen content, and how collaborations like podcasts and digital summits can help grow your audience. If you've ever felt like traditional marketing advice wasn't built for your personality, this episode will feel like a breath of fresh air! Plus, you'll get a preview of Tara's upcoming presentation at The Digital Products That Sell Summit, where she'll share even more on how to market like an introvert. It's all about staying calm, being consistent, and showing up as your most authentic self!Connect with with Tara Reid:thetarareid.comthetarareid.com/quizKey Takeaways:(03:25) Challenges introverted entrepreneurs face(05:20) Embracing your introverted strengths(07:05) Organic and evergreen marketing strategies; finding quick wins(11:15) Making marketing fun and playing to your strengths(13:20) Market like an introvert: calm, consistent, and completely you(15:45) The Introvertpreneur ClubDon't forget to grab the FREE Teacher Biz Starter Guide! teacherbiz.com/StartConnect With Heather:teacherbiz.com/aboutinstagram.com/teacherbiz

    Ditch the Suits - Financial, Investment, & Retirement Planning

    In this episode, Travis and Steve discuss how to navigate market volatility, emphasizing the importance of understanding market corrections and crashes. They explore strategies for profiting during downturns, including Roth conversions and identifying investment opportunities. The conversation highlights the wisdom of Warren Buffett, encouraging listeners to view market fluctuations as "opportunities rather than threats."Key TakeawaysMarket volatility can be leveraged for profit.Understanding the difference between market corrections and crashes is crucial.Market resets can create buying opportunities.Roth conversions during market downturns can maximize tax benefits.Investors should focus on the value behind stocks, not just their prices.Fear often drives poor investment decisions during market crashes.Strategic planning can turn market downturns into financial opportunities.Investing requires a long-term perspective, especially during volatility.Research is essential before making investment decisions during downturns.Market catastrophes can provide rare buying opportunities for savvy investors.___________________________________________

    UBS On-Air
    Top of the Morning: Muni Market - A sigh of relief

    UBS On-Air

    Play Episode Listen Later May 20, 2025 18:11


    The team spotlights the factors behind the recent rally in munis, along with improving technicals, and the return of inflows. We also review the House Ways & Means committee tax plan, and spotlight developments surrounding sanctuary city funding. Featured are Sudip Mukherjee, Fixed Income Strategist Americas, Jeannine Lennon, Municipal Strategist Americas, & Ted Galgano, Municipal Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

    Apparel Success
    How I Made $37,225.79 With 1 Hoodie & ONLY 400 Followers (No BS)

    Apparel Success

    Play Episode Listen Later May 20, 2025 9:52


    BEST Design Tool → https://www.design.com/apparelsuccessJoin the Mastermind → https://www.skool.com/apparel-success-mastermindIn this episode of Apparel Success, I share how I made $37,225.79 in hoodie sales in just 3 months… with only 400 followers and $10,736.53 spent on Facebook ads. No viral TikTok. No influencer shoutouts. Just strategy, scrappiness, and a hoodie I invented myself. If you're trying to start an online business, launch a product, or grow an ecommerce brand with no audience, this video is the raw blueprint I wish I had on Day 1. I want to breakdown how to market your clothing brand on a level you haven't seen before - and will be helpful for anyone starting a business in 2025.What You'll Learn in This Video:✅ How to launch a product with a small audience✅ How I sold out a brand-new infrared therapy hoodie✅ Real Facebook Ad strategy — what worked and what didn't✅ Niche marketing: how to target the right audience✅ How to get a 2.0+ ROAS with zero followers ✅ Why you don't need to “go viral” to make real money✅ The psychology of a good ad — built from first principles✅ Simplifying your DTC marketing strategy✅ How to build a brand that actually connects with your customer 

    The Steve Gruber Show
    Nick Hopwood | The Market Has Been Rising Everyday for Two Weeks

    The Steve Gruber Show

    Play Episode Listen Later May 20, 2025 11:00


    Nick Hopwood, Certified financial planner and Founder at Peak Wealth Management. Nick and his team of CFP's help high net worth individuals and small business owners retire with peak confidence. Visit PeakWM.com/Gruber to learn how YOU can protect your FUTURE The Market Has Been Rising Everyday for Two Weeks Trump Vs. Walmart

    The Digiday Podcast
    Upfront Week recap, Charter-Cox merger, Microsoft's DSP shutdown + Horizon Media's David Campanelli on the upfront market ahead

    The Digiday Podcast

    Play Episode Listen Later May 20, 2025 63:55


    Digiday senior reporter Sam Bradley joins the show this week to recap the highs and lows of last week's Upfront Week presentations in New York City, two major pay-TV and internet providers' merger plans and Microsoft's decision to shut down its demand-side platform. Then (19:45) Horizon Media's president of global investment David Campanelli breaks down the state of play as TV and streaming's annual upfront ad marketplace gets under way.

    Worldwide Exchange
    Dimon's Market Warning, JPMorgan Investor Day, Erasing Gains 5/20/25

    Worldwide Exchange

    Play Episode Listen Later May 20, 2025 43:19


    JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon lays out a global market triple threat he says most investors are ignoring right now. Plus, the rising rate risk and its impact on two critical parts of the U-S Economy.  And Later, futures are modestly lower this morning following yesterday modest gains. 

    Uncontested Investing
    Generating Cashflow with Storage Investing

    Uncontested Investing

    Play Episode Listen Later May 20, 2025 19:10


    On this week's episode of Uncontested Investing, we unpack one of the most recession-resistant, overlooked niches in the game: self-storage investing. It may not sound sexy, but storage units are delivering strong, stable cash flow with low risk, minimal management headaches, and surprisingly scalable upside.   We break down how smart investors are leveraging storage to diversify their portfolios, reduce liability, automate operations, and add value through tech, partnerships, and even RV/boat parking.    If you're looking for an asset that's pandemic-proven, economically resilient, and built for automation, this episode lays out the full playbook.   Key Talking Points of the Episode   00:00 Introduction 01:11 Why self-storage is an important asset class 02:30 Space is at a premium even in small living units and tiny homes 03:53 No toilets, no tenants, low maintenance = high margin 06:05 Built-in tech: smart locks, remote gate access, cameras, mobile pay 07:09 The flexibility and accessibility in self-storage 08:50 Using virtual assistance to build local partnerships 11:04 Value-add strategies: paving lots, updating tech, U-Haul affiliate income 12:48 Co-sign with trusted names (like U-Haul) 14:11 Monetizing self-storage space for RVs, boats, trailers 15:52 Market versatility: how it works in rural, suburban, and urban areas 17:30 Having your VA cold calling for occupancy   Quotables   “Storage is one of the only asset classes that's recession-resistant, pandemic-proven, and still scaling.”   “No tenants, no toilets, and no trash—it's the dream trifecta for passive investors.”   “If you own a rental portfolio, you're already halfway there. Cross-sell storage to your tenants and watch your cash flow grow.”   Links   RCN Capital https://www.rcncapital.com/podcast https://www.instagram.com/rcn_capital/ info@rcncapital.com   REI INK https://rei-ink.com/

    The Fearless Networker Show
    E324: How to Build a Referral-Based Business with BNI® CEO Mary Kennedy Thompson

    The Fearless Networker Show

    Play Episode Listen Later May 20, 2025 59:34


    In this episode of The Fearless Networker podcast, Todd Falcone sits down with Mary Kennedy Thompson, CEO of BNI® (Business Network International)—the world's largest and most successful referral network. Mary shares powerful insights on the true value of referral-based marketing, how to ask for referrals without sounding salesy, and how to build long-lasting, profitable relationships that drive real results. Whether you're in network marketing, sales, or entrepreneurship—this episode is a masterclass in growing your business the smart way.

    The Voice of Insurance
    Ep254 Emily Apple & Andreas Wichmann Alpha Insurance Analysts: Loyal Capital

    The Voice of Insurance

    Play Episode Listen Later May 20, 2025 36:16


    Today's guests work at a Lloyd's Members' Agent. Their job is to give advice and guidance to Names, the high net worth individuals providing underwriting capital to Lloyd's Syndicates, and their clients provide just under a billion pounds of capacity to the market. There was a time around 20 years ago when such a role might have been seen as perhaps a little quaint – one of those odd quirks that the Lloyd's Market seems to specialise in. Back then the brave new Lloyd's was focused almost exclusively on corporate capital provision and private capital seemed to be condemned to a managed long-term relative decline. A lot has changed since then. These days Director and Head of Syndicate Analysis Emily Apple and Andreas Wichmann Business Development Director at Alpha Insurance Analysts are busy assessing a strong pipeline of both continuing and new business opportunities in the market as entrepreneurs rediscover the attraction of engaging a loyal and dedicated source of meaningful underwriting funds as part of their capital mix. New forms of tenure for Names are also helping make them a more attractive source of capital to Managing Agents, while investors seem finally to be gaining more awareness of the many capital and fiscal advantages of underwriting as a private individual. Emily and Andreas are hugely experienced, highly knowledgeable and great company. They have a great overview of the Lloyd's market and its prospects for ventures new and old and this podcast paints a detailed picture of the opportunities in the market from an investors' perspective. You'll learn a lot and if you've ever wondered what it takes to become a Name and how the whole process works, this episode will give you all the information you need. LINKS: We thank our naming sponsor AdvantageGo: https://www.advantagego.com

    Unsportsmanlike Conduct
    Super Hot Take Market - 7

    Unsportsmanlike Conduct

    Play Episode Listen Later May 20, 2025 14:04


    Time for our weekly journey!

    PlanVision by Mark Zoril
    PlanVision Podcasts (2021) - I Just Want the Market

    PlanVision by Mark Zoril

    Play Episode Listen Later May 20, 2025 3:57


    Make it Your Mantra Mark Zoril Podcast Episode: #19 Podcast Date: 05/20/2025

    Top of Mind
    Inventory is back to 2019 levels. Here's what that means for 2025 (5/19/2025 Market Update)

    Top of Mind

    Play Episode Listen Later May 20, 2025 15:29


    Welcome to How's the Market, our weekly look at what's happening in the US housing market, powered by data from Altos. If you want to see all the inventory, pricing, and supply and demand charts we reference in the show, head on over to our YouTube channel at ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://youtube.com/altosresearch⁠⁠⁠⁠. Hosted by Mike Simonsen, President of Altos. A true data geek, Mike founded Altos in 2006 to bring data and insight on the U.S. housing market to those who need it most. Altos provides national and local real estate data to financial institutions, real estate professionals, and investors across the country, and the company is now part of HW Media, publisher of HousingWire and RealTrends. Mike uses Altos data to identify trends in the real estate market well before the headlines, and his work has been featured in the New York Times, The Atlantic, Fortune, Forbes and other publications. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    The Liquidity Event
    Spies in FinTech, Tax Shakedowns, & Surviving Market Storms

    The Liquidity Event

    Play Episode Listen Later May 20, 2025 26:04


    Welcome to Episode 146 of The Liquidity Event!  This week AJ and Shane talk FinTech corporate espionage and then focus on the proposed GOP tax plan. To wrap things up, they address a listener's concern about preparing for a "coming economic storm," offering insights on why fear-based financial decisions are rarely the best approach.  Key Takeaways: 00:00 - Intro & What's Shane doing in AJ's house? 01:52 - Spies Are Everywhere: The Cutthroat FinTech Industry 04:54 - Remote Work & Cybersecurity: The New Frontier of Corporate Risk 06:07 - Non-Competes: Enforceable or Not? 06:33 - Decoding the New House GOP Tax Plan (Draft Details!) 06:53 - AJ's Favorite: 529 Plan Expansions for Certifications! 08:14 - Shane's Take: Standard Deductions, AMT, and the SALT Cap Saga Continues 12:23 - No Tax on Tips? Or Overtime? The Complications! 15:14 - Radical Tax Idea Corner: Capital Gains & Lifetime Exclusions 18:58 - Estate Tax Exclusion: Permanent and Higher? 19:48 - Listener Question: Preparing for the "Coming Economic Storm" 21:26 - AJ's Hot Take: Don't Make Decisions Based on Fear! 25:01 - Outro

    TD Ameritrade Network
    Market Faces Resistance as CDX and PII Show Divergent Paths

    TD Ameritrade Network

    Play Episode Listen Later May 20, 2025 5:31


    Kevin Horner says the market may have run into resistance after reaching the 5950 level on the S&P 500. He's watching the low from yesterday, 5895, as a key level, and if the market closes below it, it could be the start of a pullback to the 5785 to 5800 range. He also discusses CareDx (CDX) and Polaris (PII). Kevin notes that CareDx has been a bearish setup, while Polaris is in a clear downtrend, but has shown some short-term improvement.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

    TD Ameritrade Network
    Tatro: Market's "Big Time Tailwind," A.I. Picks in TSLA, SNOW & NOW

    TD Ameritrade Network

    Play Episode Listen Later May 20, 2025 7:49


    Quint Tatro considers himself "generally bullish" in believing markets can hit new all-time highs as early as the summer. The reason? Quint says there's a "big time tailwind" he thinks investors aren't factoring in. In his stock picks, he sees Snowflake (SNOW) posting a "blockbuster" earnings report that can follow suit with ServiceNow (NOW). He also favors Tesla's (TSLA) long-term prospects.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

    #LovinLebanon Podcast
    Episode 213 - Lebanon City Market | Market Manager Sarah Howell & Joel Woody from Wisewood Farms

    #LovinLebanon Podcast

    Play Episode Listen Later May 20, 2025 30:02


    Market season is just two weeks from today!! Let the excitement begin! Lebanon City Market back in 2025, Tuesday evenings from 5 to 7, June through September. Market Manager Sarah Howell and Joel Woody from Wisewood Farms join us. What new, fun things are in store this year - find out on Episode 213 of the #LovinLebanon Podcast - right now! Learn more about the market  

    Market to Market - The MtoM Podcast
    China Holds the Keys to Rallies for U.S. Farmers - Josh Hayes

    Market to Market - The MtoM Podcast

    Play Episode Listen Later May 20, 2025 37:00


    Trade deals or not, China holds a big position for American farmers. Josh Hayes is back to follow up on comments from six months ago and make new ones.

    Masters of Risk
    Trends in the Market: A Deep Dive with Cameron Dayne

    Masters of Risk

    Play Episode Listen Later May 20, 2025 34:00


    In this episode, Stewart Webster, our new Host of Masters of Risk, sits down with Cameron Dayne, EVP & Managing Director, West Region Sales Team Lead at Zions Capital Markets. With all the volatility in the market, they take a deep dive into how it impacts your business. More S&P Global Content: [Tariffs website] International Trade and Tariffs Insights & News​ Masters of Risk podcast episodes Evaluating Credit Risk in Mid-Market Investments Credits: Host: Stewart Webster Editor and Producer: Alisha Rappaport www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence www.spglobal.com

    TalkingTrading
    Episode 500: When the Market Screams, Do You Freeze or Focus?

    TalkingTrading

    Play Episode Listen Later May 20, 2025 13:00


    Markets in meltdown? In our 500th Talking Trading episode, I'm sharing raw insights from 30+ years at the coalface - the brutal lessons, the mindset shifts, and how to keep your cool when everything's falling apart. If you've ever doubted yourself as a trader, you need this.-------------------------------Stop winging it. Let me help you!It's a fact - Traders who wing it, or go on gut feel are the ones who blow up their trading accounts.Head over to tradinggame.com.au and I'll give you my trading plan template for free. Plus, when you register you'll also get my free e-course, called Trading Made Simple. I'll personally guide you through the essential steps you need to trade like a pro. Trade confidently. Louise Bedford is a best-selling author and founder of www.tradinggame.com.au and www.talkingtrading.com.au.FacebookYouTube TwitterLinkedIn

    The Michael Berry Show
    AM Show Hr 3 | CNN's Double Standard, Trump for Nobel, and Galveston's Market Drop

    The Michael Berry Show

    Play Episode Listen Later May 19, 2025 31:28 Transcription Available


    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Thoughts on the Market
    Market Risks Persist After U.S.-China Trade Detente

    Thoughts on the Market

    Play Episode Listen Later May 19, 2025 4:23


    Markets have reacted positively to the U.S.-China détente in tariffs. Our Chief Fixed Income Strategist, Vishy Tirupattur, digs into the rallies to better understand potential longer-term outcomes.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Vishy Tirupattur: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist. Today I'll talk about the impact of last week's 90-day pause in the reciprocal tariffs between the U.S. and China, and the impact on the economy and markets.It's Monday, May 19th at 11am in New York.Market response to last Monday's announcement has been resoundingly positive. The S&P 500 was up 4.5 percent in the first four days since the announcement and the year-to-date returns are back in the black after Liberation Day drove steep declines in April.Credit markets have also rallied, notably with the investment grade spreads tightening by over 10 basis points and high yield spreads by over 50 basis points. And the Treasury market took out 50 basis points of rate cuts in 2025, leaving market implied rate cuts by the end of 2026 at around 100 basis points.While these moves across markets are significant, it is really important to put them into perspective and tease out what this detente in trade tensions implies. And more importantly, what it does not imply.On the positive side, we think that the de-escalation reduces the risk of a sudden stop in trade volumes and a sharp rise in unemployment rate. While this is clearly just a truce and we don't know exactly where the tariffs between the two largest economies in the world will end up, it seems reasonable to infer that tariffs in the vicinity of 125 percent or 145 percent are substantially less likely now. Overall, the probability of a U.S. recession, therefore, has fallen on the margin.To be clear, a recession during 2025 was never really our base case. But the de-escalation shifts risks in the direction of a little more growth, a little less inflation, and keeps unemployment rate at near current levels. If the world before Liberation Day was bimodal and close to a coin toss; it is still bimodal, but skewed towards an expansion, not contraction. Since we were in the expansion mode to begin with, this detente gives us greater comfort in our baseline outlook and strengthens our conviction that the Fed will remain on hold for rest of the year.The positive vibes from Geneva not withstanding, we would stress that it is far from clear that the 90-day pause is an uncertainty clearing event. Trade tensions are likely to remain elevated. The administration is still investigating tariffs on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, copper, and other products. It is also unclear if the template of negotiations between the U.S. and China can work for other regions, especially Europe. Even if U.S. tariffs on imports from China and the rest of the world end up roughly around the current levels, they would still be about four times higher than the levels at the start of the year.This means inflation should continue to move higher into year end, with the surge that peaks in the third quarter. While the impulse inflation from tariffs is likely to be smaller, it still is coming. Likewise, higher tariffs will dampen growth even though recession will continue to be avoided.For risk markets, we think that the detente has reduced the risk of substantial drawdowns. While policy uncertainty about the ultimate level of tariff remains, a return to last month's mind-boggling volatility driven by trade policy is probably behind us. So, it's unlikely that we will see markets revisiting the lows of April in the near term.For credit markets, a lower likelihood of recession is indeed welcome news, especially considering the current strong credit fundamentals. With the market taking out a couple of rate cuts, the all in yields for credit remain in the range to sustain the demand for yield buyers such as insurance companies.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.