Podcasts about china escape thucydides

Don Brash was the former Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand from 1988 until 2002. Don was also a Member of Parliament, and leader of the New Zealand National Party. We discuss Don's work at the Reserve Bank, which came at a pivotal time alongside the economic reforms of the late 80s.  Don shares the history of the famous 0 - 2% inflation target that he helped implement, and we talk more broadly about the state's understanding of inflation, its causes, and the role of Central Banking. We go on to talk about Don's current focus looking at both the geopolitical situation New Zealand faces in-between the US and China, as well as his work with Hobson's pledge looking at democracy issues closer to home. ‍--- Connect with The Transformation of Value X: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/TTOVpodcast⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Nostr at: npub1uth29ygt090fe640skhc8l34d9s7xlwj4frxs2esezt7n6d64nwsqcmmmu Or send an email to hello@thetransformationofvalue.com and I will get back to you! --- Support The Transformation of Value: Bitcoin tip address: bc1qlfcr2v73tntt6wvyp2yu064egvyeery6xtwy8t Lightning tip address: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠codyellingham@getalby.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ If you send a tip please email or DM me so I can thank you! --- Links: Don Brash Website - https://www.donbrash.com/ Incredible Luck, Don Brash Autobiography - https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/22036999-incredible-luck Hobson's Pledge - https://www.hobsonspledge.nz/ "Revolution" TV series on New Zealand from 1970s-1990s - https://www.nzonscreen.com/title/revolution-1996/series The Arrogance of Power by William Fulbright - https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/1355548.The_Arrogance_of_Power Oath and Honor: A Memoir and a Warning by Liz Cheney - https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/134156069-oath-and-honor Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap? by Graham Allison - https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/31125556-destined-for-war The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy—What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny by William Strauss , Neil Howe - https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/670089.The_Fourth_Turning On China by Henry Kissinger - https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/9328314-on-china Please note: James (Jim) Holt is the economist Don Brash mentions who inspired the policies of 1980s New Zealand. 

Rush Doshi, C.V. Starr Senior Fellow for Asia Studies and director of the China Strategy Initiative, sits down with James M. Lindsay to discuss how America should navigate its geopolitical rivalry with China.    Mentioned on the Episode    Graham Allison, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides' Trap?   Hal Brands and Michael Beckley, Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict With China   Rush Doshi, The Long Game: China's Grand Strategy to Displace American Order   Rush Doshi, et al., “Debating the United States' China Strategy,” CFR.org   Rush Doshi, et al., “What Does America Want From China?,” Foreign Affairs   Aaron Friedberg, The Weary Titan: Britain and the Experience of Relative Decline, 1895-1905   Mike Gallagher and Matt Pottinger, “No Substitute for Victory: America's Competition With China Must Be Won, Not Managed,” Foreign Affairs   William Langley and Gloria Li, “Chinese Robot Maker Says Protectionism Will Not Stop Its March,” Financial Times   For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President's Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/tpi/americas-china-strategy-rush-doshi 

Sir Robin Niblett, distinguished fellow at Chatham House, sits down with James M. Lindsay to discuss a potential second Cold War between the United States and China.   Mentioned on the Episode    Graham Allison, Destined for War: Can American and China Escape Thucydides' Trap?   Barry Buzan, “A New Cold War? The Case for a General Concept,” International Politics   Robin Niblett, “The G-7 Must Prepare Now for Trump,” Foreign Policy   Robin Niblett, The New Cold War: How the Contest Between the US and China Will Shape Our Century   Robin Niblett and Leslie Vinjamuri, “The Liberal Order Begins at Home,” Foreign Affairs   Jake Sullivan, “Remarks by National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on Renewing American Economic Leadership at the Brookings Institution,” April 27, 2023   Jake Sullivan, “The Sources of American Power: A Foreign Policy for a Changed World,” Foreign Affairs   For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President's Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/us-china-cold-war-robin-niblett 

שיחה על קנדי וקובה, על אולמרט ולבנון, על נתניהו ופתיחת אופציות, על המבט מוושינגטון, על סין ומלכודת תוקידידס, על ביידן והחותים, על פוטין ואיום הגרעין, על מוחות בצלוחית, רשתות חברתיות, רשתות של חיידקים, קבעונות פסיכולוגיים, שבירות ואנטי שבירות, שאיפות פוליטיות, בינה מלאכותית. וגם על דאגות. הרבה על דאגות. הספרים המופיעים בפרק: לחשוב מהר לחשוב לאט / דניאל כהנמן פנקס הכיס של השועל / צבי לניר הברבור השחור / נסים ניקולס טאלב אנטי שביר / נסים ניקולס טאלב תעתועי האקראיות / ניסים ניקולס טאלב ההפתעה הבסיסית: מודיעין במשבר / צבי לניר טרור גרעיני / גרהם אליסון Essence of Decision / Graham Allison  Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap / Graham Allison Support the show: https://www.e-vrit.co.il/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

LTG (r) Kenneth E. Tovo was commissioned from the U.S. Military Academy into the Infantry in 1983. After serving his initial tour with the 82nd Airborne Division, Tovo completed the Special Forces Qualification Course and transferred to Special Forces. He served as a Special Forces detachment, company, battalion, and group commander in the 10th Special Forces Group (Airborne).Tovo's additional assignments included serving as a plans officer with 1st Special Forces Operational Detachment-Delta and Joint Headquarters Center (NATO); aide de-camp to the commander, Stabilization Force, Bosnia; chief of staff, U.S. Army Special Operations Command (USASOC); deputy commanding general, Special Operations Command Europe (SOCEUR); deputy commanding general, 1st Armored Division/U.S. Division Center, Iraq; commanding general, Special Operations Command Central (SOCCENT); and commanding general, Combined Security Transition Command-Afghanistan and NATO Training Mission-Afghanistan (CSTC-A/NTM-A). Most recently, Tovo served as the military deputy commander of U.S. Southern Command in Miami, Fla.Tovo's operational assignments include the first Gulf War, refugee relief operations in Northern Iraq, noncombatant evacuation operations in Sierra Leone, peacekeeping operations in Bosnia on two occasions, five tours in Iraq, and one tour in Afghanistan. As mentioned in the podcast:Green Beret Foundation - https://greenberetfoundation.org/First Flight Venture Center- https://www.ffvcnc.org/Graham Allison: - Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?-https://amzn.to/3I2U0TBPeter Zienhan Books:- The Absent Super Power - https://amzn.to/3XdW4w1Disunited Nations: The Scramble for Power in an Ungoverned World - https://amzn.to/3YfcupCThe Accidental Superpower: The Next Generation of American Preeminence and the Coming Global Disorder - https://amzn.to/3Yr7cXtThe End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization - https://amzn.to/3RJCZRpChristian Brose - The Kill Chain: Defending America in the Future of High-Tech Warfare - https://amzn.to/3HvnbwY P.W.Singer and August Cole - Ghost Fleet: A Novel of the Next World War - https://amzn.to/3HGFtvr Charles E. Heller - America's First Battles - https://amzn.to/3HBL1Hm   In this podcast, the opinions and statements made are solely those of the individual and do not represent any organization or entity. The views expressed are based on personal experience and research, and should not be taken as official positions or endorsements. The individual takes full responsibility for the content of the podcast and encourages listeners to form their own opinions based on their own research and analysis.Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/philosophy-from-the-front-line--4319845/support.

Many books about US-China strategic competition have been published in recent years. This episode will focus on Facing China: The Prospect for War and Peace, which examines various flashpoints in the Indo-Pacific that could result in military conflict.There are several reasons why this book stands out: First, it includes an examination of debates within China about China's national interests; Second, it focuses not only on the challenges of major wars, but also on China's gray-zone strategy of deliberately pursuing its interests in ways that stay below the threshold that would trigger a US military response. And finally, it assesses the applicability of the Thucydides Trap to the US-China relationship. The Thucydides Trap concept was coined by Graham Allison who examined historical cases in which a rising power threatened to displace a ruling power in his book Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap? Allison concluded that in the majority of historical cases the outcome was war.This book is especially interesting because it is written by a European expert who has deep knowledge of Taiwan, mainland China, and the United States: Jean-Pierre Cabestan. He is an emeritus senior researcher at the French Center for Scientific Research in Paris and an emeritus professor political science at the Department of Government and International Studies at Hone Kong Baptist University, and a visiting senior fellow at GMF.  Timestamps[02:07] Revisiting the Thucydides Trap [03:53] Why was China fascinated by this concept? [05:26] Reasons for the Risk of War Increasing[06:33] The US-China Cold War and its Characteristics[09:03] China's Gray-Zone Activities [10:53] Where has China's gray-zone strategy been the most successful? [12:37] Unifying Taiwan with China through Gray-Zone Activities[14:42] Chinese Use of Force in the Taiwan Strait in the 2020s[16:17] China's Ambitions in the International Arena[17:40] Future Overseas Operations of the PLA  

Raquel Vaz-Pinto é Investigadora do Instituto Português de Relações Internacionais (IPRI) da Universidade Nova de Lisboa e Prof. Auxiliar Convidada da Faculdade de Ciências Sociais e Humanas da mesma Universidade, onde lecciona as disciplinas de Estudos Asiáticos e História das Relações Internacionais. Foi consultora do Conselho de Administração da Fundação Calouste Gulbenkian de 2020 a 2022 e Presidente da Associação Portuguesa de Ciência Política de 2012 a 2016. Autora de vários artigos e livros entre os quais A Grande Muralha e o Legado de Tiananmen, a China e os Direitos Humanos editado pela Tinta-da-China e Os Portugueses e o Mundo editado pela Fundação Francisco Manuel dos Santos.  Os seus interesses de investigação são Política Externa e Estratégia Chinesa; os EUA e o Indo-Pacífico; e Liderança e Estratégia. É analista residente de política internacional da SIC e da TSF. Actualmente, está a terminar um livro, que será publicado pela Tinta-da-china, sobre os desafios colocados pela China às democracias liberais europeias, incluindo a portuguesa. ->Workshop de Pensamento Crítico: sessões de Lisboa, Porto e online esgotadas! Inscreva-se aqui para ser avisado(a) de futuras edições. -> Apoie este podcast e faça parte da comunidade de mecenas do 45 Graus em: 45grauspodcast.com _______________ Índice (com timestamps): ​(9:47) O que mudou na rivalidade CN-EUA desde o nosso episódio de 2018? | Wolf warrior diplomacy | Os diplomatas chineses mal-comportados | Índia | Quad (30:18) A política externa dos EUA em relação à China começou por ser complacente e tornou-se demasiado agressiva? | Artigo de John Mearsheimer | Estratégia dos G7 em relação à CN: do decoupling ao de-risking | Matérias primas críticas e terras raras (e aqui) (42:10) Já podemos falar de uma Guerra Fria entre EUA e CN? | A Armadilha de Tucídides (Livro: História da Guerra do Peloponeso)| Houve uma crença exagerada no Ocidente nos efeitos da abertura económica? | Como os manuais de economia americanos sobrevalorizam a economia da URSS | Frase atribuída a Deng Xiaoping: «Hide your strength, bide your time» (55:26) Comparação China vs URSS | O papel da ideologia na guerra fria vs na nova ‘ordem chinesa' | Aumento do autoritarismo do regime chinês | Digital Dictators | Cimeira da Ásia Central, sem a Rússia | Nova política externa defendida pelo SPD alemão | A nova ambição da China para o Ártico (1:18:37) O que esperar do futuro -- e o que fazer para evitar uma escalada do conflito? | Tese do ‘peak China' | O problema demográfico da china (e os telefonemas aos recém-casados) | Livro: Leftover Women, de Leta Hong Fincher | Episódio com Hu Jintao no congresso do CCP | European Critical Raw Materials Act | A integração económica é um garante de que não ocorre uma guerra ou é, pelo contrário, uma fonte permanente de tensões? _______________ Pode parecer estranho o que vou dizer -- tendo em conta que a política internacional parece estar  dominada pela Guerra da Ucrânia desde fevereiro do ano passado -- mas a verdade é que, muito provavelmente, não será este o tema central das Relações Internacionais da nossa época.  O tema que vai marcar, muito provavelmente, as próximas décadas é outro: a rivalidade entre os Estados Unidos e a China, que se vai instalando à medida que esta vai ascendendo na ordem internacional e disputando a ordem unipolar até aqui dominada pelos norte-americanos. Há mesmo quem ache que já estamos a viver uma nova Guerra Fria entre as duas potências. Esta ideia não será novidade para os mais atentos a estas lides, e sobretudo não o é para quem ouviu o episódio #38 do 45 Graus, publicado em 2018, cuja convidada foi Raquel Vaz Pinto. O tema geral desse episódio foi a China e um dos tópicos que discutimos foi, precisamente, até que ponto a rivalidade entre Pequim e Washington iria marcar as próximas décadas. Ora, se já na altura, há quase 5 anos, isso era uma probabilidade forte, hoje é quase uma certeza. Ao mesmo tempo, passou-se entretanto muita coisa na relação entre os dois países, desenvolvimentos esses que nos vieram dar uma ideia mais clara (embora ainda repleta de incógnitas) sobre a forma que esta rivalidade poderá tomar nos próximos anos. Além disso, ao longo destes anos, fui recebendo muitos elogios ao episódio -- não só pela relevância do tema (que justificava mais do que um episódio), mas, sobretudo, pela convidada. A Raquel não só sabe muito, como é uma excelente comunicadora.  Por isso, decidi convidá-la para regressar ao 45 Graus para discutir este tema: com mais profundidade do que na 1ª conversa e tirando partido da informação adicional que hoje temos. E ela teve a gentileza de aceitar. Raquel Vaz-Pinto é Investigadora do Instituto Português de Relações Internacionais (IPRI) da Universidade Nova de Lisboa e Prof. Auxiliar Convidada da Faculdade de Ciências Sociais e Humanas da mesma Universidade, onde lecciona as disciplinas de Estudos Asiáticos e História das Relações Internacionais. Foi consultora do Conselho de Administração da Fundação Calouste Gulbenkian de 2020 a 2022 e Presidente da Associação Portuguesa de Ciência Política de 2012 a 2016. Autora de vários artigos e livros entre os quais A Grande Muralha e o Legado de Tiananmen, a China e os Direitos Humanos editado pela Tinta-da-China e Os Portugueses e o Mundo editado pela Fundação Francisco Manuel dos Santos.  Os seus interesses de investigação são Política Externa e Estratégia Chinesa; os EUA e o Indo-Pacífico; e Liderança e Estratégia. É analista residente de política internacional da SIC e da TSF. Actualmente, a terminar um livro, que será publicado pela Tinta-da-china, sobre os desafios colocados pela China às democracias liberais europeias, incluindo a portuguesa. Quando gravámos a nossa conversa em 2018, estas tensões entre os EUA e a China estavam ainda, de certa forma, no início. Donald Trump tinha tomado posse apenas no início do ano anterior, pondo em prática uma mudança radical na postura americana em relação à China, impondo tarifas a uma série de bens chineses. Essa medida gerou uma réplica do lado chinês, dando início a uma guerra comercial entre os dois países.  Mas, desde então, já muita tinta correu. A guerra comercial -- mesmo já com a Administração Biden -- acentuou-se e estendeu-se a outras áreas, e os dois países têm acumulado várias divergências na arena internacional, nomeadamente em relação à Guerra da Ucrânia, na qual a China tem adoptado uma postura no mínimo ambivalente. teoricamente neutra mas, na prática, próxima da Russia. Ao mesmo tempo, a retórica belicosa que Trump tinha inaugurado do lado norte-americano tem sido mais do que correspondida do lado chinês, com líderes políticos e diplomatas a adoptarem um discurso cada vez mais assertivo (e, em alguns casos, mesmo agressivo). Estas disputas comerciais e divergências geopolíticas são, no entanto, segundo muitos analistas, apenas as causas próximas do aumento da conflitualidade entre CN e EUA. A causa última – o factor fundamental por trás desta mudança – reside, para muitos, na denominada ‘Armadilha de Tucídides', de que falámos também no episódio de 2018.  A ‘armadilha' tem este nome porque foi postulada pela primeira vez pelo historiador ateniense Tucídides, na sua História da Guerra do Peloponeso, que opôs Atenas a Esparta. Segundo ele, a guerra entre os dois era inevitável, uma vez que Atenas estava a crescer e ganhar poder, o que fazia aumentar a sua ambição, enquanto essa situação gerava em Esparta, o poder incumbente uma forte ansiedade.  Esta ideia tem sido amplamente discutida nos últimos tempos, a propósito da rivalidade CN-EUA, por académicos e analistas, tanto do lado norte-americano como também do chinês. Um dos mais conhecidos é Graham Allison, que popularizou o conceito no seu livro: Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap? , Segundo os proponentes da “Armadilha”, sempre que uma potência emergente ameaça substituir uma potência hegemónica existe uma tendência inexorável para a guerra entre as duas. Aplicada à relação entre a China e os EUA, isto implica que à medida que o poder económico e militar da primeira se vai aproximando do dos EUA, isso cria-lhe, inevitavelmente, um sentimento de auto-importância crescente e de direito a ter um papel mais activo na política global. Ao mesmo tempo, cria nos Estados Unidos, a potência incumbente, medo, insegurança e uma determinação de defender o status quo a todo o custo .  Esta visão da Armadilha de Tucídides enquanto espécie de “lei das relações internacionais” atinge o seu pináculo em académicos da chamada escola ultra-realista das RI. O maior exemplo -- de quem falamos no episódio -- é talvez John Mearsheimer (de quem também falei no episódio sobre a Guerra da Ucrânia, com Lívia Franco).  Para Mearsheimer, esta armadilha é de tal modo uma inevitabilidade, que afirma que o governo norte-americano deveria ter antecipado o perigo do crescimento económico acelerado da China e, simplesmente, tentado impedi-lo.  Ancorados nesta ideia, há, assim, um número crescente de analistas e oficiais -- tanto nos Estados Unidos como na China -- que discutem hoje, abertamente, a possibilidade de um conflito entre os dois países, seja ele uma guerra directa (de maior ou menor escala) ou uma guerra fria, como a com a URSS, sem conflitos directos mas com as charadas “guerras por procuração”.  No entanto, como a Raquel chama a atenção, as RI são demasiado complexas para podermos tomar esta armadilha como lei de forma simplista. Há factores que contribuem para este desenlace, mas outros há que não e, sobretudo, persistem ainda muitas incógnitas sobre o que pode acontecer.  Espero que gostem! _______________ Obrigado aos mecenas do podcast: Francisco Hermenegildo, Ricardo Evangelista, Henrique Pais João Baltazar, Salvador Cunha, Abilio Silva, Tiago Leite, Carlos Martins, Galaró family, Corto Lemos, Miguel Marques, Nuno Costa, Nuno e Ana, João Ribeiro, Helder Miranda, Pedro Lima Ferreira, Cesar Carpinteiro, Luis Fernambuco, Fernando Nunes, Manuel Canelas, Tiago Gonçalves, Carlos Pires, João Domingues, Hélio Bragança da Silva, Sandra Ferreira , Paulo Encarnação , BFDC, António Mexia Santos, Luís Guido, Bruno Heleno Tomás Costa, João Saro, Daniel Correia, Rita Mateus, António Padilha, Tiago Queiroz, Carmen Camacho, João Nelas, Francisco Fonseca, Rafael Santos, Andreia Esteves, Ana Teresa Mota, ARUNE BHURALAL, Mário Lourenço, RB, Maria Pimentel, Luis, Geoffrey Marcelino, Alberto Alcalde, António Rocha Pinto, Ruben de Bragança, João Vieira dos Santos, David Teixeira Alves, Armindo Martins , Carlos Nobre, Bernardo Vidal Pimentel, António Oliveira, Paulo Barros, Nuno Brites, Lígia Violas, Tiago Sequeira, Zé da Radio, João Morais, André Gamito, Diogo Costa, Pedro Ribeiro, Bernardo Cortez Vasco Sá Pinto, David , Tiago Pires, Mafalda Pratas, Joana Margarida Alves Martins, Luis Marques, João Raimundo, Francisco Arantes, Mariana Barosa, Nuno Gonçalves, Pedro Rebelo, Miguel Palhas, Ricardo Duarte, Duarte , Tomás Félix, Vasco Lima, Francisco Vasconcelos, Telmo , José Oliveira Pratas, Jose Pedroso, João Diogo Silva, Joao Diogo, José Proença, João Crispim, João Pinho , Afonso Martins, Robertt Valente, João Barbosa, Renato Mendes, Maria Francisca Couto, Antonio Albuquerque, Ana Sousa Amorim, Francisco Santos, Lara Luís, Manuel Martins, Macaco Quitado, Paulo Ferreira, Diogo Rombo, Francisco Manuel Reis, Bruno Lamas, Daniel Almeida, Patrícia Esquível , Diogo Silva, Luis Gomes, Cesar Correia, Cristiano Tavares, Pedro Gaspar, Gil Batista Marinho, Maria Oliveira, João Pereira, Rui Vilao, João Ferreira, Wedge, José Losa, Hélder Moreira, André Abrantes, Henrique Vieira, João Farinha, Manuel Botelho da Silva, João Diamantino, Ana Rita Laureano, Pedro L, Nuno Malvar, Joel, Rui Antunes7, Tomás Saraiva, Cloé Leal de Magalhães, Joao Barbosa, paulo matos, Fábio Monteiro, Tiago Stock, Beatriz Bagulho, Pedro Bravo, Antonio Loureiro, Hugo Ramos, Inês Inocêncio, Telmo Gomes, Sérgio Nunes, Tiago Pedroso, Teresa Pimentel, Rita Noronha, miguel farracho, José Fangueiro, Zé, Margarida Correia-Neves, Bruno Pinto Vitorino, João Lopes, Joana Pereirinha, Gonçalo Baptista, Dario Rodrigues, tati lima, Pedro On The Road, Catarina Fonseca, JC Pacheco, Sofia Ferreira, Inês Ribeiro, Miguel Jacinto, Tiago Agostinho, Margarida Costa Almeida, Helena Pinheiro, Rui Martins, Fábio Videira Santos, Tomás Lucena, João Freitas, Ricardo Sousa, RJ, Francisco Seabra Guimarães, Carlos Branco, David Palhota, Carlos Castro, Alexandre Alves, Cláudia Gomes Batista, Ana Leal, Ricardo Trindade, Luís Machado, Andrzej Stuart-Thompson, Diego Goulart, Filipa Portela, Paulo Rafael, Paloma Nunes, Marta Mendonca, Teresa Painho, Duarte Cameirão, Rodrigo Silva, José Alberto Gomes, Joao Gama, Cristina Loureiro, Tiago Gama, Tiago Rodrigues, Miguel Duarte, Ana Cantanhede, Artur Castro Freire, Rui Passos Rocha, Pedro Costa Antunes, Sofia Almeida, Ricardo Andrade Guimarães, Daniel Pais, Miguel Bastos, Luís Santos _______________ Esta conversa foi editada por: Hugo Oliveira

LTG (r) Kenneth E. Tovo was commissioned from the U.S. Military Academy into the Infantry in 1983. After serving his initial tour with the 82nd Airborne Division, Tovo completed the Special Forces Qualification Course and transferred to Special Forces. He served as a Special Forces detachment, company, battalion, and group commander in the 10th Special Forces Group (Airborne).Tovo's additional assignments included serving as a plans officer with 1st Special Forces Operational Detachment-Delta and Joint Headquarters Center (NATO); aide de-camp to the commander, Stabilization Force, Bosnia; chief of staff, U.S. Army Special Operations Command (USASOC); deputy commanding general, Special Operations Command Europe (SOCEUR); deputy commanding general, 1st Armored Division/U.S. Division Center, Iraq; commanding general, Special Operations Command Central (SOCCENT); and commanding general, Combined Security Transition Command-Afghanistan and NATO Training Mission-Afghanistan (CSTC-A/NTM-A). Most recently, Tovo served as the military deputy commander of U.S. Southern Command in Miami, Fla.Tovo's operational assignments include the first Gulf War, refugee relief operations in Northern Iraq, noncombatant evacuation operations in Sierra Leone, peacekeeping operations in Bosnia on two occasions, five tours in Iraq, and one tour in Afghanistan. As mentioned in the podcast:Green Beret Foundation - https://greenberetfoundation.org/First Flight Venture Center- https://www.ffvcnc.org/Graham Allison: - Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?-https://amzn.to/3I2U0TBPeter Zienhan Books:- The Absent Super Power - https://amzn.to/3XdW4w1Disunited Nations: The Scramble for Power in an Ungoverned World - https://amzn.to/3YfcupCThe Accidental Superpower: The Next Generation of American Preeminence and the Coming Global Disorder - https://amzn.to/3Yr7cXtThe End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization - https://amzn.to/3RJCZRpChristian Brose - The Kill Chain: Defending America in the Future of High-Tech Warfare - https://amzn.to/3HvnbwY P.W.Singer and August Cole - Ghost Fleet: A Novel of the Next World War - https://amzn.to/3HGFtvr Charles E. Heller - America's First Battles - https://amzn.to/3HBL1HmDisclaimer: “The views represented are not necessarily those of DEFTECH, NCMBC, FTCC, or the Federal Government. The content and interviews are for instructional purposes and to build awareness for the NC Innovation Ecosystem.” “DEFTECH is a North Carolina Military Business Center subsidiary and receives support from Fayetteville Technical Community College.”

Этот выпуск - первый из "тематической" рубрики. В рамках этой рубрики мы будем анализировать одну конкретную тему либо одно конкретное государство: нынешнюю политическую обстановку, историю, факторы, которые влияли/влияют на развитие страны. В этом выпуске - важная и масштабная тема о геополитическом противостоянии между США и Китаем. Мы разбираем причины этого противостояния, а также мотивации сторон. Поскольку подкаст образовательный, для слушателей, желающих углубиться в тему, мы подготовили список рекомендуемой литературы по теме: - Aaron Friedberg. Getting China Wrong (2022) - Rush Doshi. The Long Game (2021) - Henry Kissinger. On China (2011) - C. Fred Bergsten. The United States vs. China: The Quest for Global Economic Leadership (2022) - Graham Allison. Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap? (2017)

Chinese President Xi Jinping opened the 20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in October - with a speech that makes clear where his party stands on its future ambitions, to include the reunification of the self-governing island of Taiwan. But tensions between the US and China over Taiwan's future are really just one part of the story.  Beijing has made clear that it has a thorough and organized strategy to achieve its ambitious goals while the US – in part because of a democratic system that can change leadership every four years – is realizing that it must do something different if it wants to remain a dominant power in the world. I can't imagine anyone better on this issue that my guest in this episode: former assistant secretary of defense turned Harvard Professor Graham Allison.  Allison is the Douglas Dillon Professor of Government and Harvard and he is also the author of the book, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides' Trap?  If you haven't read it, it's a master class in understanding just where both countries are coming from and what advantages they hold in this great power competition. Here's my State Secrets conversation with Harvard Professor Graham Allison.

Episode LinksWhy the Past 10 Years of American Life Have Been Uniquely Stupid  (Article)The Atlantichttps://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2022/05/social-media-democracy-trust-babel/629369/The Future of Europe  (Video)https://youtu.be/AkIX5yHF1dUBusiness Roundtable Redefines the Purpose of a Corporation to Promote'An Economy That Serves All Americans' | Business Roundtable  (Article)https://www.businessroundtable.org/business-roundtable-redefines-the-purpose-of-a-corporation-to-promote-an-economy-that-serves-all-americansDestined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?  (Article)Harvard Kennedy Schoolhttps://www.hks.harvard.edu/publications/destined-war-can-america-and-china-escape-thucydidess-trapWelcome back to Off the Fence, a podcast we hope will shed some light on subjects we think we may know something about. Every two weeks, we'll get together and take a look at a specific topic, try to separate the wheat from the chaff and maybe even come up with some practical, compelling conclusions. To Get Off the Fence.We'll keep it direct and clean, with fact-based analysis and opinions.In this episode we discuss - Which model is better equipped to handle economic disruption, recession and change- Impact of future technological change on wages- Should we fear China economicallyWebsitehttps://www.buzzsprout.com/2018770

2021 nyarán beszélgettünk az USA és Kína rivalizálásáról és "Thuküdidész csapdájáról", vagyis a szuperhatalmak önsorsrontó konfliktushoz vezető rivalizálásáról, amelyet Athén és Spárta összecsapása, a Hellászt lenullázó peloponnészoszi háború óta csak kivételes esetekben lehetett elkerülni a Kissinger-tanítvány Graham Allison 2017-ben megjelentetett "Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?" című könyve szerint. Világháborúval fenyegető fegyveres konfliktus, újabb hidegháború, az érdekszférák felosztása, vagy még erősebb gazdasági összefonódás lesz az USA és Kína összefeszülésének eredménye? És a mai diplomaták és a nemzetközi kapcsolatok szakemberei mit tanulhatnak ókori történetíróktól? A beszélgetés résztvevői: Balázsy István Baranyi Tamás Csunderlik Péter Laska Pál Romsics Gergely A Régen minden jobb volt a Tilos Rádió hátrafelé nyilazó történelmi műsora: https://www.facebook.com/regen.minden.jobb.volt

On 'current history', or what might be going on out there. Subscribe at: paid.retraice.com Details: what's GOOT; current history; hypotheses [and some predictions]; What's next? Complete notes and video at: https://www.retraice.com/segments/re17 Air date: Monday, 7th Mar. 2022, 4 : 20 PM Eastern/US. 0:00:00 what's GOOT; 0:01:35 current history; 0:04:30 hypotheses [and some predictions]; 0:13:38 What's next? References: Allison, G. (2018). Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap? Mariner Books. ISBN: 978-1328915382. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9781328915382 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9781328915382 https://lccn.loc.gov/2017005351 Andrew, C. (2018). The Secret World: A History of Intelligence. Yale University Press. ISBN in paperback edition printed as "978-0-300-23844-0 (hardcover : alk. paper)". Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-0300238440 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-0300238440 https://lccn.loc.gov/2018947154 Baumeister, R. F. (1999). Evil: Inside Human Violence and Cruelty. Holt Paperbacks, revised ed. ISBN: 978-0805071658. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780805071658 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780805071658 https://lccn.loc.gov/96041940 Bostrom, N. (2011). Information Hazards: A Typology of Potential Harms from Knowledge. Review of Contemporary Philosophy, 10, 44-79. Citations are from Bostrom's website copy: https://www.nickbostrom.com/information-hazards.pdf Retrieved 9th Sep. 2020. Bostrom, N. (2019). The vulnerable world hypothesis. Global Policy, 10(4), 455-476. Nov. 2019. https://nickbostrom.com/papers/vulnerable.pdf Retrieved 24th Mar. 2020. Bostrom, N., & Cirkovic, M. M. (Eds.) (2008). Global Catastrophic Risks. Oxford University Press. ISBN: 978-0199606504. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-0199606504 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-0199606504 https://lccn.loc.gov/2008006539 Brockman, J. (Ed.) (2015). What to Think About Machines That Think: Today's Leading Thinkers on the Age of Machine Intelligence. Harper Perennial. ISBN: 978-0062425652. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-0062425652 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-0062425652 https://lccn.loc.gov/2016303054 Chomsky, N. (1970). For Reasons of State. The New Press, revised ed. ISBN: 1565847946. Originally published 1970; this revised ed. 2003. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=1565847946 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+1565847946 https://catalog.loc.gov/vwebv/search?searchArg=1565847946 Chomsky, N. (2017). Requiem for the American Dream: The 10 Principles of Concentration of Wealth & Power. Seven Stories Press. ISBN: 978-1609807368. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-1609807368 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-1609807368 https://lccn.loc.gov/2016054121 Cirkovic, M. M. (2008). Observation selection effects and global catastrophic risks. (pp. 120-145). In Bostrom & Cirkovic (2008). de Grey, A. (2007). Ending Aging: The Rejuvenation Breakthroughs That Could Reverse Human Aging in Our Lifetime. St. Martin's Press. ISBN: 978-0312367060. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-0312367060 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-0312367060 https://lccn.loc.gov/2007020217 Deary, I. J. (2001). Intelligence: A Very Short Introduction. Oxford. ISBN: 978-0192893215. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-0192893215 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-0192893215 https://lccn.loc.gov/2001269139 Diamond, J. (1997). Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies. Norton. ISBN: 0393317552. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=0393317552 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+0393317552 https://catalog.loc.gov/vwebv/search?searchArg=0393317552 Dolan, R. M. (2000). UFOs and the National Security State Vol. 1: An Unclassified History. Keyhole, 1st ed. ISBN: 0967799503. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=0967799503 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+0967799503 https://catalog.loc.gov/vwebv/search?searchArg=0967799503 Dolan, R. M. (2009). UFOs and the National Security State Vol. 2: The Cover-Up Exposed, 1973-1991. Keyhole. ISBN: 978-0967799513. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-0967799513 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-0967799513 Durant, W., & Durant, A. (1968). The Lessons of History. Simon and Schuster. No ISBN. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=lessons+of+history+durant https://www.google.com/search?q=lessons+of+history+durant https://lccn.loc.gov/68019949 Dyson, G. (2015). Analog, the revolution that dares not speak its name. (pp. 255-256). In Brockman (2015). Dyson, G. (2020). Analogia: The Emergence of Technology Beyond Programmable Control. Farrar, Straus and Giroux. ISBN: 978-0374104863. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780374104863 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780374104863 https://catalog.loc.gov/vwebv/search?searchArg=9780374104863 Dyson, G. B. (1997). Darwin Among The Machines: The Evolution Of Global Intelligence. Basic Books. ISBN: 978-0465031627. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-0465031627 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-0465031627 https://lccn.loc.gov/2012943208 Frank, R., & Bernanke, B. (2001). Principles of Economics. Mcgraw-Hill. ISBN: 0072289627. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=0072289627 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+0072289627 https://catalog.loc.gov/vwebv/search?searchArg=0072289627 Frankfurt, H. G. (1988). The Importance of What We Care About. Cambridge. ISBN: 978-0521336116. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-0521336116 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-0521336116 https://lccn.loc.gov/87026941 Gawande, A. (2014). Being Mortal: Medicine and What Matters in the End. Metropolitan Books. ISBN: 978-0805095159. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780805095159 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780805095159 https://catalog.loc.gov/vwebv/search?searchArg=9780805095159 Grabo, C. M. (2002). Anticipating Surprise: Analysis for Strategic Warning. Center for Strategic Intelligence Research. ISBN: 0965619567 https://www.ni-u.edu/ni_press/pdf/Anticipating_Surprise_Analysis.pdf Retrieved 7th Sep. 2020. Griffiths, P. J. (1971). Vietnam, Inc.. Phaidon, 2nd ed. ISBN: 978-0714846033. Originally published 1971. This edition 2006. Link and searches: http://philipjonesgriffiths.org/photography/selected-work/vietnam-inc/ Retrieved 10 Mar. 2022. https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-0714846033 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-0714846033 https://lccn.loc.gov/2006283959 Hamming, R. W. (2020). The Art of Doing Science and Engineering: Learning to Learn. Stripe Press. ISBN: 978-1732265172. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9781732265172 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9781732265172 Hawking, S. (2018). Brief Answers to the Big Questions. Bantam. ISBN: 978-1984819192. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9781984819192 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9781984819192 https://catalog.loc.gov/vwebv/search?searchArg=9781984819192 Herrnstein, R. J., & Murray, C. (1996). The Bell Curve: Intelligence and Class Structure in American Life. Free Press. ISBN: 978-0684824291. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780684824291 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780684824291 https://catalog.loc.gov/vwebv/search?searchArg=9780684824291 Johnson, S. (2014). How We Got to Now: Six Innovations That Made the Modern World. Riverhead Books. ISBN: 978-1594633935. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9781594633935 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9781594633935 https://lccn.loc.gov/2014018412 Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, Fast and Slow. Farrar, Straus and Giroux. ISBN: 978-0374533557. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-0374533557 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-0374533557 https://lccn.loc.gov/2012533187 Kaplan, F. (2016). Dark Territory: The Secret History of Cyber War. Simon & Schuster. ISBN: 978-1476763255. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9781476763255 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9781476763255 https://catalog.loc.gov/vwebv/search?searchArg=9781476763255 Kelleher, C. A., & Knapp, G. (2005). Hunt for the Skinwalker: Science Confronts the Unexplained at a Remote Ranch in Utah. Paraview Pocket Books. ISBN: 978-1416505211. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-1416505211 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-1416505211 https://lccn.loc.gov/2005053457 Keyhoe, D. (1950). The Flying Saucers Are Real. Forgotten Books. ISBN: 978-1605065472. Originally published 1950; this edition 2008. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9781605065472 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9781605065472 https://lccn.loc.gov/50004886 Kilcullen, D. (2020). The Dragons And The Snakes: How The Rest Learned To Fight The West. Oxford University Press. ISBN: 978-0190265687. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780190265687 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780190265687 https://catalog.loc.gov/vwebv/search?searchArg=9780190265687 Lazar, B. (2019). Dreamland: An Autobiography. Interstellar. ISBN: 978-0578437057. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780578437057 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780578437057 Lee, K.-F. (2018). AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order. Houghton Mifflin Harcourt. ISBN: 978-1328546395. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9781328546395 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9781328546395 https://catalog.loc.gov/vwebv/search?searchArg=9781328546395 Mitter, R. (2008). Modern China: A Very Short Introduction. Oxford University Press, kindle ed. ISBN: 978-0199228027. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780199228027 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780199228027 https://catalog.loc.gov/vwebv/search?searchArg=9780199228027 Nouri, A., & Chyba, C. F. (2008). Biotechnology and biosecurity. (pp. 450-480). In Bostrom & Cirkovic (2008). O'Donnell, P. K. (2004). Operatives, Spies, and Saboteurs: The Unknown Story of the Men and Women of World War II's OSS. Free Press / Simon & Schuster. ISBN: 074323572X. Edition and searches: https://archive.org/details/operativesspiess00odon https://www.amazon.com/s?k=074323572X https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+074323572X https://catalog.loc.gov/vwebv/search?searchArg=074323572X Ord, T. (2020). The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity. Hachette. ISBN: 978-0316484916. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-0316484916 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-0316484916 https://lccn.loc.gov/2019956459 Orlov, D. (2008). Reinventing Collapse: The Soviet Example and American Prospects. New Society. ISBN: 978-0865716063. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780865716063 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780865716063 https://catalog.loc.gov/vwebv/search?searchArg=9780865716063 Osnos, E. (2020/01/06). The Future of America's Contest with China. The New Yorker. https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/01/13/the-future-of-americas-contest-with-china Retrieved 22 April, 2020. Perlroth, N. (2020). This Is How They Tell Me the World Ends: The Cyberweapons Arms Race. Bloomsbury. ISBN: 978-1635576054. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-1635576054 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-1635576054 https://lccn.loc.gov/2020950713 Phoenix, C., & Treder, M. (2008). Nanotechnology as global catastrophic risk. (pp. 481-503). In Bostrom & Cirkovic (2008). Pillsbury, M. (2015). The Hundred-Year Marathon: China's Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower. St. Martin's Griffin. ISBN: 978-1250081346. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9781250081346 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9781250081346 https://lccn.loc.gov/2014012015 Pinker, S. (2011). The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined. Penguin Publishing Group. ISBN: 978-0143122012. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-0143122012 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-0143122012 https://lccn.loc.gov/2011015201 Pogue, D. (2021). How to Prepare for Climate Change: A Practical Guide to Surviving the Chaos. Simon & Schuster. ISBN: 978-1982134518. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9781982134518 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9781982134518 https://catalog.loc.gov/vwebv/search?searchArg=9781982134518 Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. Simon & Schuster. ISBN: 978-1476769905. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9781476769905 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9781476769905 https://lccn.loc.gov/2015001534 Rees, M. (2003). Our Final Hour: A Scientist's Warning. Basic Books. ISBN: 0465068634. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=0465068634 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+0465068634 https://lccn.loc.gov/2004556001 Rees, M. (2008). Foreword to Bostrom & Cirkovic (2008). (pp. iii-vii). Reid, T. R. (2017). A Fine Mess: A Global Quest for a Simpler, Fairer, and More Efficient Tax System. Penguin Press. ISBN: 978-1594205514. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9781594205514 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9781594205514 https://catalog.loc.gov/vwebv/search?searchArg=9781594205514 Retraice (2020/09/07). Re1: Three Kinds of Intelligence. retraice.com. https://www.retraice.com/segments/re1 Retrieved 22nd Sep. 2020. Retraice (2020/11/10). Re13: The Care Factor. retraice.com. https://www.retraice.com/segments/re13 Retrieved 10th Nov. 2020. Romm, J. (2016). Climate Change: What Everyone Needs to Know. Oxford University Press. ISBN: 978-0190250171. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780190250171 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780190250171 https://catalog.loc.gov/vwebv/search?searchArg=9780190250171 Russell, S., & Norvig, P. (2020). Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach. Pearson, 4th ed. ISBN: 978-0134610993. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-0134610993 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-0134610993 https://lccn.loc.gov/2019047498 Salter, A. (2003). Predators. Basic Books. ISBN: 978-0465071732. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-0465071739 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-0465071739 https://lccn.loc.gov/2002015846 Sanger, D. E. (2018). The Perfect Weapon: War, Sabotage, and Fear in the Cyber Age. Broadway Books. ISBN: 978-0451497901. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780451497901 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780451497901 https://catalog.loc.gov/vwebv/search?searchArg=9780451497901 Sapolsky, R. M. (2018). Behave: The Biology of Humans at Our Best and Worst. Penguin Books. ISBN: 978-0143110910. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780143110910 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780143110910 https://lccn.loc.gov/2016056755 Shirer, W. L. (1959). The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich: A History of Nazi Germany. Simon & Schuster, 50th anniv. ed. ISBN: 978-1451651683. Originally published 1959; this ed. 2011. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9781451651683 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9781451651683 https://lccn.loc.gov/60006729 Shorrocks, A., Davies, J., Lluberas, R., & Rohner, U. (2019). Global wealth report 2019. Credit Suisse Research Institute. Oct. 2019. https://www.credit-suisse.com/about-us/en/reports-research/global-wealth-report.html Retrieved 4 July, 2020. Simler, K., & Hanson, R. (2018). The Elephant in the Brain: Hidden Motives in Everyday Life. Oxford University Press. ISBN: 9780190495992. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780190495992 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780190495992 https://lccn.loc.gov/2017004296 Spalding, R. (2019). Stealth War: How China Took Over While America's Elite Slept. Portfolio. ISBN: 978-0593084342. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780593084342 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780593084342 https://catalog.loc.gov/vwebv/search?searchArg=9780593084342 Stephens-Davidowitz, S. (2018). Everybody Lies: Big Data, New Data, and What the Internet Can Tell Us About Who We Really Are. Dey Street Books. ISBN: 978-0062390868. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9780062390868 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9780062390868 https://lccn.loc.gov/2017297094 Sternberg, R. J. (Ed.) (2020). The Cambridge Handbook of Intelligence (Cambridge Handbooks in Psychology) (2 vols.). Cambridge University Press, 2nd ed. ISBN: 978-1108719193. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9781108719193 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9781108719193 https://lccn.loc.gov/2019019464 Vallee, J. (1979). Messengers of Deception: UFO Contacts and Cults. And/Or Press. ISBN: 0915904381. Different edition and searches: https://archive.org/details/MessengersOfDeceptionUFOContactsAndCultsJacquesValle1979/mode/2up https://www.amazon.com/s?k=0915904381 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+0915904381 https://catalog.loc.gov/vwebv/search?searchArg=0915904381 Walter, B. F. (2022). How Civil Wars Start. Crown. ISBN: 978-0593137789. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-0593137789 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-0593137789 https://lccn.loc.gov/2021040090 Walter, C. (2020). Immortality, Inc.: Renegade Science, Silicon Valley Billions, and the Quest to Live Forever. National Geographic. ISBN: 978-1426219801. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=9781426219801 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+9781426219801 https://catalog.loc.gov/vwebv/search?searchArg=9781426219801 Zubrin, R. (1996). The Case for Mars: The Plan to Settle the Red Planet and Why We Must. Free Press. First published in 1996. This 25th anniv. edition 2021. ISBN: 978-0684827575. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-0684827575 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-0684827575 https://lccn.loc.gov/2011005417 Zubrin, R. (2019). The Case for Space: How the Revolution in Spaceflight Opens Up a Future of Limitless Possibility. Prometheus Books. ISBN: 978-1633885349. Searches: https://www.amazon.com/s?k=978-1633885349 https://www.google.com/search?q=isbn+978-1633885349 https://lccn.loc.gov/2018061068 Copyright: 2022 Retraice, Inc. https://retraice.com

It takes a lot to impress Professor Graham Allison when it comes to geopolitics. He is, after all, the Cold Warrior's Cold Warrior—as one of America's most influential defense policy analysts and advisors, he was twice awarded the Defense Department's highest civilian honor for his work on nuclear disarmament with Russia. He's a former Assistant Secretary of Defense, former director of the Council on Foreign Relations, a founding member of the Trilateral Commission, and a renowned political scientist who has served as dean of the Kennedy School and head of the school's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. Yet even Allison says he marvels at the rapid transformation of China, the world's rising economic, technological, and military superpower, and he says it's well past time for the United States and the rest of the world to hear some hard truths about China's power and potential dominance of world affairs during the 21st Century.To explain how China has not only caught up with, but in numerous cases surpassed, the United States, Allison and a group of colleagues are writing a series of five research papers on the key areas of economics, technological advancement, military power, diplomatic influence, and ideology. The third paper, on China's extraordinary rise as an economic superpower, states that while some may be tempted to still see China as a developing country, the truth is that it has been adding the equivalent of the entire economy of India to its GDP every four years and that the number of people in the Chinese middle class—some 400 million—now far outnumber the entire population of the United States.Meanwhile, China is either catching up or leading in foundational technologies of the 21st century like AI, quantum computing, and green tech, while recent war games predict that China's modernized, expanded military would likely win a military conflict over Taiwan. Graham Allison talks about China's rise and what could be the next great superpower rivalry—but also about the possibilities for a new paradigm for the US-China relationship that goes beyond Cold War thinking.About the Guest:Graham Allison is the Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at Harvard University where he has taught for five decades.  Allison is a leading analyst of national security with special interests in nuclear weapons, Russia, China, and decision-making.  Allison was the “Founding Dean” of Harvard's John F. Kennedy School of Government, and until 2017, served as Director of its Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. As Assistant Secretary of Defense in the first Clinton Administration, Dr. Allison received the Defense Department's highest civilian award, the Defense Medal for Distinguished Public Service, for "reshaping relations with Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan to reduce the former Soviet nuclear arsenal." This resulted in the safe return of more than 12,000 tactical nuclear weapons from the former Soviet republics and the complete elimination of more than 4,000 strategic nuclear warheads previously targeted at the United States and left in Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Belarus when the Soviet Union disappeared.Professor Allison is the author of numerous books, including: “Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?” (2017), “Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Master's Insights on China, the United States and the World” (2013), “Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe” (2004) and “Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis (1971).As "Founding Dean" of the modern Kennedy School, under his leadership, from 1977 to 1989, a small, undefined program grew twenty-fold to become a major professional school of public policy and government.Professor Allison was the organizer of the Commission on America's National Interests (1996 and 2000), a founding member of the Trilateral Commission, a Director of the Council on Foreign Relations. He was born and raised in Charlotte, North Carolina. He was educated at Davidson College; Harvard College (B.A., magna cum laude, in History); Oxford University (B.A. and M.A., First Class Honors in Philosophy, Politics, and Economics); and Harvard University (Ph.D. in Political Science).PolicyCast is a production of Harvard Kennedy School and is hosted by Staff Writer and Producer Ralph RanalliPolicyCast is co-produced by Susan Hughes.For more information please visit our web page or contact us at PolicyCast@hks.harvard.edu.

Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Referenced in the show: NYT - N.Y.C. Mayoral Race Highlights: Adams Leads in Early Results Over Wiley and Garcia https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/06/22/nyregion/nyc-primary-election Vanity Fair - Eric Adams interview https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2021/06/eric-adams-nyc-mayor-interview NY Daily News - ‘We don't want fancy candidates': Eric Adams declares himself ‘face of the new Democratic Party' https://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/nyc-elections-2021/ny-eric-adams-democratic-party-nyc-mayoral-race-20210624-oemlj42abzc7jnime4tjfddfhm-story.html Jesse Bloom COVID origin research paper https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.18.449051v1 Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap? by Graham Allison https://rb.gy/7vj8ks Apple says third-party app stores would leave iPhone users vulnerable to scammers https://fortune.com/2021/06/23/apple-iphone-third-party-app-store-users The Pull Request - Bad Apple* by Antonio Garcia Martinez https://www.thepullrequest.com/p/bad-apple Show Notes: 0:00 Besties hash out a new format & the purpose of the podcast 14:31 NYC rejects far-left candidates in mayoral primary; importance of crime, homelessness & drug abuse in elections 29:29 New developments in the Wuhan lab leak theory, ramifications for our relationship with China 54:07 Congress turns the heat on up big tech, Apple's App Store monopoly in trouble 1:09:25 Antonio Garcia Martinez's first Substack article on Apple

The Truth About The Digital Dollar, The Controlled Demolition of the US Economy, Food HyperInflation- Be Prepared, Worse than 1929.   The Truth About The Digital Dollar, Biometric Identity, Fedcoin , Digital Dictatorship & 5G The Controlled Demolition of the US Economy - Unemployment, Debt, Poverty, Homelessness Skyrocketing. Warning to America: The Greatest Depression of All Times Approaching Worse than 1929 : Be Prepared! Global Food Prices Continue to Surge -- Hyperinflation is Already Here.   The Truth About The Digital Dollar, Biometric Identity, Fedcoin , Digital Dictatorship & 5G https://youtu.be/IxB-gMNGuFE The Atlantis Report 159K subscribers

The Truth About The Digital Dollar, The Controlled Demolition of the US Economy, Food HyperInflation- Be Prepared, Worse than 1929.   The Truth About The Digital Dollar, Biometric Identity, Fedcoin , Digital Dictatorship & 5G The Controlled Demolition of the US Economy - Unemployment, Debt, Poverty, Homelessness Skyrocketing. Warning to America: The Greatest Depression of All Times Approaching Worse than 1929 : Be Prepared! Global Food Prices Continue to Surge -- Hyperinflation is Already Here.   The Truth About The Digital Dollar, Biometric Identity, Fedcoin , Digital Dictatorship & 5G https://youtu.be/IxB-gMNGuFE The Atlantis Report 159K subscribers

Risk off sell everything, payrolls preview, equity volatility is the only escape valve and fasten your seat beltThis week’s report Be Greedy When Others are FearfulFigure 1: SPX risk is the S&P 500 Volatility, the Volatility of Volatility, correlation and skew indices as well as the term structure of VIX futures (6 month less 1 month) in a z-score format. Wednesday it expanded to 2.43 standard deviations, it remained above 2 on Thursday and Friday. We consider these readings high relative to underlying economic conditions. The election and latest surge in Covid-19 cases appear reasonably discounted.Please consider becoming a paid subscriber, or if you are an institutional client, on boarding us to your research platform to read our full note and gain access to our client presentation, measures of risk and valuation, recommended reading list and additional products. If you would like a 30-day free trial or would like to discuss our research with me directly, please email bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.com. Click below for details, for individual subscriptions the price is $89/month.Lehman Veterans Knapp, Curnutt Reunite at Macro Risk Advisors2020-10-30 16:14:49.326 GMTBy Sonali Basak(Bloomberg) -- Barry Knapp is reuniting with former LehmanBrothers Holdings Inc. colleague Dean Curnutt as the duo seek toexpand their work advising large investors.Knapp, who previously worked at Guggenheim Securities andBlackRock Inc., is keeping his own research firm, IronsidesMacroeconomics, while also working as a senior adviser toCurnutt’s Macro Risk Advisors. The two worked together in the1990s at Lehman during what Knapp calls the “glory days ofequity derivatives.”“We were doing ETF-like transactions with macro hedge fundsbefore there were ETFs,” Knapp said in a phone interview,referring to exchange-traded funds. “I did a Russell 2000 swapbefore there were Russell 2000 futures.”Curnutt founded his company in 2008 to advise institutionalinvestors on market risks. He previously was head of equitysales and trading at Bank of America Corp. and, before that,worked in the equity derivatives unit at Lehman in the fouryears through 1999, according to his LinkedIn profile.Knapp joined BlackRock’s fixed-income investment-managementdivision in 2014, after almost two decades at Lehman and thenfive years at Barclays Plc. He joined Guggenheim in 2017 andleft about a year later.Knapp’s “macro expertise will be a welcome addition to theset of tools we bring to clients to help navigate markets andrisk at a time of great uncertainty,” Curnutt said by phone.“Having known Barry for 25 years and worked with him before, Ihave a strong appreciation for his talents and expertise.”If there are any questions about the above Bloomberg story please contact meBarry C. KnappManaging PartnerDirector of ResearchIronsides Macroeconomics LLC908-821-7584bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.comhttps://ironsidesmacro.substack.comhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-c-knapp/@barryknappReading ListLatest Book: “A History of the Federal Reserve, Volume 2, Book 1, 1951-1969”, Allan H. MeltzerNext Book: “Human Action, The Scholar’s Edition”, Ludwig von Mises“Trade Wars Are Class Wars”, Matthew C. Klein & Michael Pettis“Showdown at Gucci Gulch, Lawmakers, Lobbyists, and the Unlikely Triumph of Tax Reform”, Jeffrey H. Birnbaum and Alan S. Murray“A Great Leap Forward, 1930s Depression and US Economic Growth”, Alexander J. Field“1493, Uncovering the New World Columbus Created”, Charles C. Mann“Great Society, A New History”, Amity Shlaes“The Second Machine Age”, Erik Brynjolofsson, Andrew McAfee“Grand Pursuit, the Story of Economic Genius”, Sylvia Nasar“The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers”, Paul Kennedy“Capitalism in America, A History”, Alan Greenspan & Adrian Woolridge“Diversity Explosion, How New Racial Demographics are Remaking America”, William H. Frey“Clashing Over Commerce, A History of US Trade Policy”, Douglas A. Irwin“Destined for War, Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap”, Graham Allison“The Constitution of Liberty”, F.A. Hayek“Judgement in Moscow, Soviet Crimes and Western Complicity”, Vladimir Bukovsky“1931, Debt, Crisis and the Rise of Hitler”, Tobias StraumannThis institutional communication has been prepared by Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC (“Ironsides Macroeconomics”) for your informational purposes only. This material is for illustration and discussion purposes only and are not intended to be, nor should they be construed as financial, legal, tax or investment advice and do not constitute an opinion or recommendation by Ironsides Macroeconomics. You should consult appropriate advisors concerning such matters. This material presents information through the date indicated, is only a guide to the author’s current expectations and is subject to revision by the author, though the author is under no obligation to do so. This material may contain commentary on: broad-based indices; economic, political, or market conditions; particular types of securities; and/or technical analysis concerning the demand and supply for a sector, index or industry based on trading volume and price. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author. This material should not be construed as a recommendation, or advice or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment. The information in this report is not intended to provide a basis on which you could make an investment decision on any particular security or its issuer. This material is for sophisticated investors only. This document is intended for the recipient only and is not for distribution to anyone else or to the general public.Certain information has been provided by and/or is based on third party sources and, although such information is believed to be reliable, no representation is made is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of such information. This information may be subject to change without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics undertakes no obligation to maintain or update this material based on subsequent information and events or to provide you with any additional or supplemental information or any update to or correction of the information contained herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates and partners shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs, or claims for your reliance on this material. Nothing herein is, or shall be relied on as, a promise or representation as to future performance. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.Opinions expressed in this material may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed, or actions taken, by Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates, or their respective officers, directors, or employees. In addition, any opinions and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change and/or withdrawal without notice. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may have positions in financial instruments mentioned, may have acquired such positions at prices no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests or inconsistent with the advice herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may advise issuers of financial instruments mentioned. No liability is accepted by Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates or partners for any losses that may arise from any use of the information contained herein.Any financial instruments mentioned herein are speculative in nature and may involve risk to principal and interest. Any prices or levels shown are either historical or purely indicative. This material does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances, objectives or needs of any specific investor, and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, investment products, or other financial products or strategies to particular clients. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein.The material should not be provided to any person in a jurisdiction where its provision or use would be contrary to local laws, rules or regulations. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed to any other person or published in whole or in part for any purpose absent the written consent of Ironsides Macroeconomics.© 2020 Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC. This is a public episode. Get access to private episodes at ironsidesmacro.substack.com/subscribe

On August 20, 2020, Asian Americans Advancing Justice's Asian Law Caucus, along with dozens of Asian American and Civil Rights organizations, filed an amicus brief opposing the US government's increasing attacks on Chinese American scientists. In this special unlocked bonus episode, Teen and Diana discuss "The China Initiative," how and why something like this gets enacted, who it hurts and who it benefits. Ethnic cleansing and fascism don't require violent mobs. Jealous colleagues, ambitious prosecutors, and an ignorant public will get the job done. But are Chinese scientists the first victims of an impending Boba Liberal pogrom, or the last line of defense against a truly failed state? In an America that is insane and eating itself, Asian Americans need to develop our own tradition of intellectualism to fight for ourselves and all Americans. TWITTER: Teen (@mont_jiang) Diana (@discoveryduck) REFERENCED RESOURCES: United States vs Tao Amicus Brief: https://advancingjustice-aajc.org/sites/default/files/2020-08/Tao%20Amicus%20Brief.pdf The Chinese in America, by Iris Chang: https://b-ok.cc/book/3236054/6cdc89 Thread of the Silkworm, by Iris Chang: https://b-ok.cc/book/2372111/9b0caa One Billion Americans: The case for many more Americans: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/21449512/matt-yglesias-one-billion-americans How Two Students Touring Florida Found Themselves Branded as Chinese Spies: https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/09/28/china-lost-students-spies-michigan-florida-espionage-fears/ Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? by Graham Allison: https://b-ok.cc/book/5152796/296be7 SUBMISSIONS & COMMENTS: editor.planamag@gmail.com EFPA Opening Theme: "Fuck Out My Face" by Ayekay (open.spotify.com/artist/16zQKaDN5XgHAhfOJHTigJ)

Hank speaks with friend and Harvard scholar Graham Allison about geopolitics and US-China relations, including the two countries' shared interests, economic health, and how the upcoming US election is impacting this important bilateral relationship. Graham Allison: hks.harvard.edu/faculty/graham-allison Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?: https://amzn.to/2HYKPa5

On today's Global Exchange Podcast, Colin Robertson is joined by Jonathan Manthorpe to discuss his latest book, Restoring Democracy in an Age of Populists and Pestilence. Participant bio: - Jonathan Manthorpe is a journalist, foreign correspondent, and author of three books on global affairs. https://www.cormorantbooks.com/jonathan-manthorpe Host Bio: - Colin Robertson (host): Vice President of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute. Links: - Jonathan Manthorpe, Restoring Democracy in an Age of Populists and Pestilence (Toronto: Cormorant Books, 2020): https://www.cormorantbooks.com/restoring-democracy Recommended Readings: - Graham Allison, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap? (Boston: Mariner Books, 2019) https://www.hmhbooks.com/shop/books/Destined-for-War/9781328915382 The Global Exchange is part of the CGAI Podcast Network. Subscribe to the CGAI Podcast Network on SoundCloud, iTunes, or wherever else you can find Podcasts! If you like our content and would like to support our podcasts, please check out our donation page www.cgai.ca/support. Recording Date: 20 August 2020. Give 'The Global Exchange' a review on iTunes! Follow the Canadian Global Affairs Institute on Facebook, Twitter (@CAGlobalAffairs), or on Linkedin. Head over to our website www.cgai.ca for more commentary. Produced by Charlotte Duval-Lantoine. Music credits to Drew Phillips.

A Dollar Crash is Inevitable, Dr. Stephen Roach Warns !!https://youtu.be/3FUKZ6wAwug The Atlantis ReportA Dollar Crash is Inevitable, Dr. Stephen Roach Warns. The stronger dollar era may be on borrowed time. Stephen Roach, one of the world’s leading authorities on Asia, is worried a changing global landscape paired with a massive U.S. budget deficit will spark a dollar crash. “The U.S. economy has been afflicted with some significant macro imbalances for a long time, namely a very low domestic savings rate and a chronic current account deficit,” the former Morgan Stanley Asia chairman told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Monday. “The dollar is going to fall very, very sharply.” Roach predicts a 35% decline in the U.S. currency against its major rivals in the near future, citing increases in the nation’s deficit and dwindling savings. He added that the rise of China and the decoupling of the U.S. from its trade partners is likely to end the supremacy of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. Dr. Roach is right that sooner or later, manipulating the dollar for our own purposes will come back to bite us. So much of the US prosperity these past decades has come from having the "reserve currency" with the willingness (now gone) to make sacrifices for the world order. The bottom line is that $4 trillion in stimulus has been created to deal with Covid-19. The national debt just passed $26 trillion (130% of GDP). When you create more money, its value must go down, unless other currencies are also being increased at the same rate. While Europe and Japan have also passed their own stimulus, they haven't created proportionally as much new money as the US. Meanwhile, China and Russia have so far refrained from using unconventional fiscal policies. Russia's government debt as a percentage of GDP is actually among the lowest in the world. Not everyone is in the same boat. The US will one day have to face economic consequences for what it has been doing for decades. #theatlantisreport #economiccollapse #silvercoins

Billionaires' row, socialism with Chinese characteristics and creative destructionListen to our podcast for a summary of the latest weekly note from Ironsides Macroeconomics: https://ironsidesmacro.substack.comBelow are links to four recent reports that are outside the paywall so you can get a sense for the subscriber product. Please consider becoming a paid subscriber, or if you are an institutional client, on boarding us to your research platform to read our full note and gain access to our client presentation, measures of risk and valuation, recommended reading list and additional products. If you would like a 30-day free trial or would like to discuss our research with me directly, please email bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.com. Click below for details, for individual subscriptions the price is $89/month.https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com/p/some-brief-labor-market-thoughtshttps://ironsidesmacro.substack.com/p/the-corona-contraction-productivityhttps://ironsidesmacro.substack.com/p/gaining-traction-its-never-differenthttps://ironsidesmacro.substack.com/p/the-corona-contractionFigure 8: For four decades education, healthcare and housing costs have increased far more rapidly than the personal consumption deflator. Their share of consumption has also increased underscoring how they have been a drag on productivity growth. The poor outcomes are well documented. Technology in the form of telemedicine, blended learning and work from home are ways out of the deadweight sectors productivity drag.https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com/p/the-corona-contraction-productivity“Your Kids May Never Return to Normal Schooling:” Andreas Kluth, Bloomberg 15-May-2020Barry C. KnappManaging PartnerIronsides Macroeconomics LLC908-821-7584https://ironsidesmacro.substack.comhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-c-knapp/@barryknappReading List“Showdown at Gucci Gulch, Lawmakers, Lobbyists, and the Unlikely Triumph of Tax Reform”, Jeffrey H. Birnbaum and Alan S. Murray“A Great Leap Forward, 1930s Depression and US Economic Growth”, Alexander J. Field“1493, Uncovering the New World Columbus Created”, Charles C. Mann“Great Society, A New History”, Amity Shlaes“The Second Machine Age”, Erik Brynjolofsson, Andrew McAfee“Grand Pursuit, the Story of Economic Genius”, Sylvia Nasar“The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers”, Paul Kennedy“Capitalism in America, A History”, Alan Greenspan & Adrian Woolridge“Diversity Explosion, How New Racial Demographics are Remaking America”, William H. Frey“Clashing Over Commerce, A History of US Trade Policy”, Douglas A. Irwin“Destined for War, Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap”, Graham Allison“The Constitution of Liberty”, F.A. Hayek“Judgement in Moscow, Soviet Crimes and Western Complicity”, Vladimir Bukovsky“1931, Debt, Crisis and the Rise of Hitler”, Tobias StraumannMy next book: “Nudge”, Richard H. Thaler & Cass R. SunsteinThis institutional communication has been prepared by Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC (“Ironsides Macroeconomics”) for your informational purposes only. This material is for illustration and discussion purposes only and are not intended to be, nor should they be construed as financial, legal, tax or investment advice and do not constitute an opinion or recommendation by Ironsides Macroeconomics.  You should consult appropriate advisors concerning such matters.  This material presents information through the date indicated, is only a guide to the author’s current expectations and is subject to revision by the author, though the author is under no obligation to do so.  This material may contain commentary on: broad-based indices; economic, political, or market conditions; particular types of securities; and/or technical analysis concerning the demand and supply for a sector, index or industry based on trading volume and price. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author. This material should not be construed as a recommendation, or advice or an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment. The information in this report is not intended to provide a basis on which you could make an investment decision on any particular security or its issuer. This material is for sophisticated investors only.  This document is intended for the recipient only and is not for distribution to anyone else or to the general public.Certain information has been provided by and/or is based on third party sources and, although such information is believed to be reliable, no representation is made is made with respect to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of such information. This information may be subject to change without notice.  Ironsides Macroeconomics undertakes no obligation to maintain or update this material based on subsequent information and events or to provide you with any additional or supplemental information or any update to or correction of the information contained herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates and partners shall not be liable to any person in any way whatsoever for any losses, costs, or claims for your reliance on this material. Nothing herein is, or shall be relied on as, a promise or representation as to future performance.  PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.Opinions expressed in this material may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed, or actions taken, by Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates, or their respective officers, directors, or employees. In addition, any opinions and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change and/or withdrawal without notice.  Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may have positions in financial instruments mentioned, may have acquired such positions at prices no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests or inconsistent with the advice herein. Ironsides Macroeconomics or its affiliates may advise issuers of financial instruments mentioned. No liability is accepted by Ironsides Macroeconomics, its officers, employees, affiliates or partners for any losses that may arise from any use of the information contained herein.Any financial instruments mentioned herein are speculative in nature and may involve risk to principal and interest. Any prices or levels shown are either historical or purely indicative. This material does not take into account the particular investment objectives or financial circumstances, objectives or needs of any specific investor, and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, investment products, or other financial products or strategies to particular clients. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein.The material should not be provided to any person in a jurisdiction where its provision or use would be contrary to local laws, rules or regulations. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed to any other person or published in whole or in part for any purpose absent the written consent of Ironsides Macroeconomics.© 2020 Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC. This is a public episode. Get access to private episodes at ironsidesmacro.substack.com/subscribe

On today's Defence Deconstructed Podcast, we feature a discussion with Mark Norman about Canada's strategic relationship with China, the Indo-Pacific-Asia theatre, and how that is all affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Defence Deconstructed is part of the CGAI Podcast Network and today's episode is brought to you by the Canadian Association of Defence and Security Industries (CADSI). Subscribe to and rate the CGAI Podcast Network on your podcast app! Bios: 

- Dave Perry (host): Senior Analyst and Vice President with the Canadian Global Affairs Institute.

 - VAdm (ret'd) Mark Norman: Previous Deputy Commander and Commander of the Royal Canadian Navy. Previous Vice-Chief of Defence Staff for the Canadian Armed Forces. Recommended Readings:
 - "Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?" by Graham Allison(www.amazon.ca/Destined-War-Ameri…book/dp/B01IAS9FZY) Related Links: 

- "NORAD: Remaining Relevant" [CGAI Policy Paper] by Michael Dawson (https://www.cgai.ca/norad_remaining_relevant) Recording Date: May 8, 2020 Follow the Canadian Global Affairs Institute on Facebook, Twitter (@CAGlobalAffairs), or on Linkedin. Head over to our website at www.cgai.ca for more commentary. Produced by Jay Rankin. Music credits to Drew Phillips.

On today's Defence Deconstructed Podcast, we feature a discussion with Mark Norman, Jeff Tasseron, and Sam Michaud about the crash of the Canadian Armed Forces Cyclone helicopter off the coast of Greece on Wednesday. Defence Deconstructed is part of the CGAI Podcast Network and today's episode is brought to you by the Canadian Association of Defence and Security Industries (CADSI). Subscribe to and rate the CGAI Podcast Network on your podcast app! Bios: 

- Dave Perry (host): Senior Analyst and Vice President with the Canadian Global Affairs Institute.

 - VAdm (ret'd) Mark Norman: Previous Deputy Commander and Commander of the Royal Canadian Navy. - Col (ret'd) Jeff Tasseron: Director, Business Development, Information and Communication Technologies from the Public Safety Canadian Commercial Corporation. Former Commander of 423 Squadron. - Col (ret'd) Sam Michaud: Managing Director at Marshall Canada. Former Commander of 423 Squadron. Recommended Readings:
 - "Range: Why Generalists Triumph in a Specialized World" by David J. Epstein (https://www.amazon.ca/Range-Generalists-Triumph-Specialized-World-ebook/dp/B07H1ZYWTM) - "Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance" by Robert M. Pirsig (https://www.amazon.ca/Zen-Art-Motorcycle-Maintenance-Inquiry-ebook/dp/B0026772N) - "At the Centre of Government: The Prime Minister and the Limits" by Ian Brodie (https://www.amazon.ca/At-Centre-Government-Minister-Political-ebook/dp/B07CVQSJBG) - "Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?" by Graham Allison(https://www.amazon.ca/Destined-War-America-Escape-Thucydidess-ebook/dp/B01IAS9FZY) Related Links: 

- Recording Date: May 1, 2020 Follow the Canadian Global Affairs Institute on Facebook, Twitter (@CAGlobalAffairs), or on Linkedin. Head over to our website at www.cgai.ca for more commentary. Produced by Jay Rankin. Music credits to Drew Phillips.

About the Lecture: In 2017, Graham Allison, founding dean of the Harvard Kennedy School and former assistant secretary of defense, published “Destined For War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?” Allison's Thucydides's Trap rapidly became an influential statement on the challenge that a rising China poses to the international order created and lead by the United States. To help understand the dangers that China's rapid economic, technological, and military growth poses to both countries, Allison draws on the classic statement on great power war — Thucydides' History of the Peloponnesian War — to argue that the “structural stress caused when a rising power threatens to upend a ruling one” makes even “ordinary flashpoints” likely to trigger large-scale conflict.” Allison is certainly right about the growth of China. And he is right to look to Thucydides for help. But Allison reduces Thucydides' magisterial work to an instrument of realpolitik. Using Thucydides' account of the siege of Plataea as a guide to China's contemporary treatment of Hong Kong, we can see another, deeper and richer, lesson in Thucydides' History, one that must not be forgotten by those who wish, in the face of Chinese authoritarianism, to preserve the fragile but precious gift of freedom at the heart of Western civilization. About the Speaker: Bernard J. Dobski is an Associate Professor of Political Science at Assumption College and is currently a Visiting Scholar for 2019-2020 at the Heritage Foundation. He is the co-editor of two volumes on Shakespeare's political thought. His articles and essays on the political wisdom of Thucydides, Xenophon, Shakespeare, and Mark Twain appear in the Review of Politics, Interpretation, Society, and Philosophy & Literature. He has also published on foreign policy, military strategy, sovereignty, and nationalism.

Join Bruce and Josie for an interview with Dr. Graham Allison from Harvard University. Dr. Allison talks about balancing his experience as an academic and as an assistant secretary of defense in the Clinton administration. He also talks about the challenge of working in practice compared to these and the need to add to the sum of knowledge rather. References from the Show: Graham Allison. (1971). Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis. Graham Allison. (2018). Destined for War: Can American and China Escape Thucydides' Trap. Aristotle (1996). Introductory Readings. Belfer Center. (2019). Contest: Do You Have a Grand Strategy to Meet the China Challenge? Carl von Clausewitz. (1989). On War. Alexander Hamilton, James Madison, and John Jay. (2003). The Federalist Papers. Fredrik Logevall. (2012). Embers of War: The Fall of an Empire and the Making of America’s Vietnam. Edmund Morris. (2001). The Rise of Theodore Roosevelt. Gilbert Ryle. (2000). The Concept of Mind. Thucydides. (1954). History of the Peloponnesian War. Subscribe to Academics of PA today! New episodes drop every other Thursday. Follow the podcast on Facebook and Twitter: @AcademicsofPA Follow the hosts on Twitter: Bruce McDonald: @academicpiracy William Hatcher: @ProfHat Josie Schafer: @SchaferJosie

This week on the program, we’re going to explore the U.S.-China relationship beginning with tensions in and around the South China Sea. It's broken up into three parts: 1. How did all this begin? (at the 2:58 mark) 2. What's in it for Beijing? (11:16) 3. Where to go and what to know from here (24:28) Our guests include Samantha Hoffman of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute; Elsa Kania of the Center for a New American Security; Greg Poling of the Center for Strategic and International Studies; Andrew Wilson of the U.S. Naval War College (not speaking on behalf of the Navy or the Defense Department); and Pamela Crossley of Dartmouth University. Special thanks as well to Paulina Glass, Katie Bo Williams and Marcus Weisgerber. • Related reading: "Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?" by Graham Allison. (https://www.amazon.com/Destined-War-America-Escape-Thucydidess-ebook/dp/B01IAS9FZY) and "China Goes to Sea," a 2009 collection of essays from the Naval Institute Press (https://www.amazon.com/China-Goes-Sea-Transformation-Comparative/dp/1591142423).

USA og Kina er på vei mot en krig ingen ønsker. Det hevder Graham Allison i boken "Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?", som har hatt stort gjennomslag blant amerikanske politikere. Allison hevder at det er en historisk lovmessighet at det blir krig når en voksende makt utfordrer den gamle stormakten. Stemmer det? Bli med oss i et dypdykk i amerikansk utenrikspolitisk tenkning og en kritisk gjennomgang av datagrunnlaget for Allisons påstand.

Mark Sanford was elected to Congress in 1994, where he quickly established himself as one of the most conservative members of the chamber. In 2002, he was elected governor of South Carolina. He was, again, one of the most conservative elected officials in the country. Many expected him to be the GOP’s nominee against Obama in 2012. Then it all happened. The disappearance. “Hiking the Appalachian trail.” Sanford left public life. He was done, it seemed. And then he wasn’t. He won a House seat in South Carolina. He overcame the kind of scandal that usually destroys a politician. But he couldn’t overcome Trump. Sanford was a rock-ribbed conservative, a Republican, but he was no Trumpist. He accused the president of fanning the flames of intolerance, of being reckless with the truth. He wrote a New York Times op-ed calling on Trump to release his tax returns. Sanford got a primary opponent for his troubles, Trump endorsed her, and Sanford lost. Weeks after Sanford's defeat, Trump appeared before House Republicans and mocked Sanford in front of his colleagues. The president, unusually, was booed. I sat down with Sanford in his final weeks in Congress to talk about what he’s learned about the Republican Party, about Donald Trump, about America, and about himself.   Recommended books: Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? by Graham Allison Fascism: A Warning by Madeleine Albright The Square and the Tower: Networks and Power, from the Freemasons to Facebook by Niall Ferguson Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Graham Allison, Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at Harvard Kennedy School, asks how America and China can escape future conflict. Discussed by Roderick MacFarquhar,  Leroy B. Williams Professor of History at Harvard University, and Oriana Skylar Mastro, Assistant Professor of Security Studies at the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University. Chaired by Michael Szonyi, Director of the Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies, Harvard University,

Graham Allison, author of the 2018 Lionel Gelber Prize shortlisted book “Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?”, speaks with Robert Steiner, Director, Fellowships in Global Journalism at the Munk School of Global Affairs.

Graham Allison, Professor of Government at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government and leading analyst of U.S. national security and defense policy with a special interest in nuclear weapons and terrorism, joins host Jeremy Schwartz to discuss his latest book "Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?" on Behind the Markets. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Guests: Graham Allison - The Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government, who is a leading analyst of U.S. national security and defense policy with a special interest in nuclear weapons, terrorism, and decision-making. His latest book is Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? Perth Tolle - The founder of Life + Liberty Indexes. Perth lived and worked in Beijing and Hong Kong, where her observations led her to explore the relationship between freedom and markets. Through her China experience she gained a high level of conviction regarding the impact of sound governance, individual freedoms, and rule of law on economic growth and innovation See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Sparta and Athens grew toward a conflict that neither wanted – what Graham Allison calls Thucydides's Trap. Named for the classical Greek historian, Thucydides's Trap describes the structural stresses that result when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling one. The looming question is whether China's rise and the fear it instills in America will result in war between the great powers. With tensions rising on nearly all of China's borders, new leadership priorities in Washington, and historic government transition set to happen after Beijing's 19th National Congress, the foundation for conflict or coordination is in many ways being set right now. Will the intertwined economies of the China and the US stave off Thucydides's Trap, or is this all just a little bit of history repeating? Allison's new book Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap? will be available for purchase and signing via the Book Cellar following the program.

He's won the Defense Department's highest civilian award for reshaping the relations with Russian, Ukraine and Kazakhstan to reduce the former Soviet Nuclear arsenal and is also a friend of some of the current Trump administration. Author Graham T. Allison's latest book 'Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?' goes into a rising nation threatening a ruling power. Allison explains why this is creating huge danger for all and talks about the advice he'd give to President Trump about tweeting. FOX's Tonya J. Powers spends "A Few Moments With..." Allison to discuss his book and about how important knowing the country's history really is.

He's won the Defense Department's highest civilian award for reshaping the relations with Russian, Ukraine and Kazakhstan to reduce the former Soviet Nuclear arsenal and is also a friend of some of the current Trump administration. Author Graham T. Allison's latest book 'Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?' goes into a rising nation threatening a ruling power. Allison explains why this is creating huge danger for all and talks about the advice he'd give to President Trump about tweeting. FOX's Tonya J. Powers spends "A Few Moments With..." Allison to discuss his book and about how important knowing the country's history really is. Listen to the interview below: Follow FOX's Tonya J. Powers on Twitter: @TonyaJPowers Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode, Bob sits down with prominent political scientist and professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School, Graham Allison. Allison discusses his recent book, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?, the culture of “dysfunction” in Washington, and the delicate relationship between prominent and rising world powers. Download transcript here.

This week on the Lawfare Podcast, Jack Goldsmith interviews Graham Allison at the Hoover Book Soiree about Allison's new book, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?.  The conversation covers the history of rising and declining powers, how the North Korean regime affects the security dynamic between U.S. and China, and how to preserve peace where Thucydides would predict war.

Thucydides's Trap is the dangerous dynamic that occurs when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, explains Harvard's Graham Allison. So is war between China and the United States inevitable? No, says Allison, but both nations will have to make "painful adaptations and adjustments" to avoid it, starting with U.S. policy adjustments regarding the South China Sea and the Korean Peninsula.

Thucydides's Trap is the dangerous dynamic that occurs when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, explains Harvard's Graham Allison. So is war between China and the United States inevitable? No, says Allison, but both nations will have to make "painful adaptations and adjustments" to avoid it, starting with U.S. policy adjustments regarding the South China Sea and the Korean Peninsula.

The Hoover Institution hosted "Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?" on Wednesday, July 12, 2017 from 5:00pm - 7:00pm EST. The Hoover Institution's National Security, Technology and Law Working Group, along with Hoover's Washington, DC office, invite you to a discussion of Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap? Jack Goldsmith, working group co-chair and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, interviewed author Graham Allison about why Thucydides's Trap is the best lens for understanding U.S.-China relations in the twenty-first century. (Playing time: 51:19)

Harvard Kennedy School Professor Graham Allison (@GrahamTAllison) takes a moment to talk with Aroop Mukharji (@aroopmukharji) about his new book “Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?” Allison explains the big idea that is Thucydides’s Trap, what might spark war between America and China, and what he has in common with Queen Elizabeth II. Subscribe to the Belfer Center for a new episode of Office Hours the first of each month! Listen to the full interview and subscribe to the podcast: https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/office-hours/id1232032283 More about “Destined for War” and the Thucydides’s Trap: https://www.belfercenter.org/thucydides-trap/overview-thucydides-trap More about Graham Allison: https://www.belfercenter.org/person/graham-allison Belfer Center website: http://www.belfercenter.org Listen to the full interview: https://soundcloud.com/belfercenter/sets/office-hours Original Release Date: June 30, 2017

National security scholar Graham Allison speaks with the Hoover Institution's Niall Ferguson at FSI. Allison's new book is called "Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?"

National security scholar Graham Allison speaks with the Hoover Institution's Niall Ferguson at FSI. Allison's new book is called "Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?"