Podcast appearances and mentions of Dan Gross

Applications for the 2025 AI Engineer Summit are up, and you can save the date for AIE Singapore in April and AIE World's Fair 2025 in June.Happy new year, and thanks for 100 great episodes! Please let us know what you want to see/hear for the next 100!Full YouTube Episode with Slides/ChartsLike and subscribe and hit that bell to get notifs!Timestamps* 00:00 Welcome to the 100th Episode!* 00:19 Reflecting on the Journey* 00:47 AI Engineering: The Rise and Impact* 03:15 Latent Space Live and AI Conferences* 09:44 The Competitive AI Landscape* 21:45 Synthetic Data and Future Trends* 35:53 Creative Writing with AI* 36:12 Legal and Ethical Issues in AI* 38:18 The Data War: GPU Poor vs. GPU Rich* 39:12 The Rise of GPU Ultra Rich* 40:47 Emerging Trends in AI Models* 45:31 The Multi-Modality War* 01:05:31 The Future of AI Benchmarks* 01:13:17 Pionote and Frontier Models* 01:13:47 Niche Models and Base Models* 01:14:30 State Space Models and RWKB* 01:15:48 Inference Race and Price Wars* 01:22:16 Major AI Themes of the Year* 01:22:48 AI Rewind: January to March* 01:26:42 AI Rewind: April to June* 01:33:12 AI Rewind: July to September* 01:34:59 AI Rewind: October to December* 01:39:53 Year-End Reflections and PredictionsTranscript[00:00:00] Welcome to the 100th Episode![00:00:00] Alessio: Hey everyone, welcome to the Latent Space Podcast. This is Alessio, partner and CTO at Decibel Partners, and I'm joined by my co host Swyx for the 100th time today.[00:00:12] swyx: Yay, um, and we're so glad that, yeah, you know, everyone has, uh, followed us in this journey. How do you feel about it? 100 episodes.[00:00:19] Alessio: Yeah, I know.[00:00:19] Reflecting on the Journey[00:00:19] Alessio: Almost two years that we've been doing this. We've had four different studios. Uh, we've had a lot of changes. You know, we used to do this lightning round. When we first started that we didn't like, and we tried to change the question. The answer[00:00:32] swyx: was cursor and perplexity.[00:00:34] Alessio: Yeah, I love mid journey. It's like, do you really not like anything else?[00:00:38] Alessio: Like what's, what's the unique thing? And I think, yeah, we, we've also had a lot more research driven content. You know, we had like 3DAO, we had, you know. Jeremy Howard, we had more folks like that.[00:00:47] AI Engineering: The Rise and Impact[00:00:47] Alessio: I think we want to do more of that too in the new year, like having, uh, some of the Gemini folks, both on the research and the applied side.[00:00:54] Alessio: Yeah, but it's been a ton of fun. I think we both started, I wouldn't say as a joke, we were kind of like, Oh, we [00:01:00] should do a podcast. And I think we kind of caught the right wave, obviously. And I think your rise of the AI engineer posts just kind of get people. Sombra to congregate, and then the AI engineer summit.[00:01:11] Alessio: And that's why when I look at our growth chart, it's kind of like a proxy for like the AI engineering industry as a whole, which is almost like, like, even if we don't do that much, we keep growing just because there's so many more AI engineers. So did you expect that growth or did you expect that would take longer for like the AI engineer thing to kind of like become, you know, everybody talks about it today.[00:01:32] swyx: So, the sign of that, that we have won is that Gartner puts it at the top of the hype curve right now. So Gartner has called the peak in AI engineering. I did not expect, um, to what level. I knew that I was correct when I called it because I did like two months of work going into that. But I didn't know, You know, how quickly it could happen, and obviously there's a chance that I could be wrong.[00:01:52] swyx: But I think, like, most people have come around to that concept. Hacker News hates it, which is a good sign. But there's enough people that have defined it, you know, GitHub, when [00:02:00] they launched GitHub Models, which is the Hugging Face clone, they put AI engineers in the banner, like, above the fold, like, in big So I think it's like kind of arrived as a meaningful and useful definition.[00:02:12] swyx: I think people are trying to figure out where the boundaries are. I think that was a lot of the quote unquote drama that happens behind the scenes at the World's Fair in June. Because I think there's a lot of doubt or questions about where ML engineering stops and AI engineering starts. That's a useful debate to be had.[00:02:29] swyx: In some sense, I actually anticipated that as well. So I intentionally did not. Put a firm definition there because most of the successful definitions are necessarily underspecified and it's actually useful to have different perspectives and you don't have to specify everything from the outset.[00:02:45] Alessio: Yeah, I was at um, AWS reInvent and the line to get into like the AI engineering talk, so to speak, which is, you know, applied AI and whatnot was like, there are like hundreds of people just in line to go in.[00:02:56] Alessio: I think that's kind of what enabled me. People, right? Which is what [00:03:00] you kind of talked about. It's like, Hey, look, you don't actually need a PhD, just, yeah, just use the model. And then maybe we'll talk about some of the blind spots that you get as an engineer with the earlier posts that we also had on on the sub stack.[00:03:11] Alessio: But yeah, it's been a heck of a heck of a two years.[00:03:14] swyx: Yeah.[00:03:15] Latent Space Live and AI Conferences[00:03:15] swyx: You know, I was, I was trying to view the conference as like, so NeurIPS is I think like 16, 17, 000 people. And the Latent Space Live event that we held there was 950 signups. I think. The AI world, the ML world is still very much research heavy. And that's as it should be because ML is very much in a research phase.[00:03:34] swyx: But as we move this entire field into production, I think that ratio inverts into becoming more engineering heavy. So at least I think engineering should be on the same level, even if it's never as prestigious, like it'll always be low status because at the end of the day, you're manipulating APIs or whatever.[00:03:51] swyx: But Yeah, wrapping GPTs, but there's going to be an increasing stack and an art to doing these, these things well. And I, you know, I [00:04:00] think that's what we're focusing on for the podcast, the conference and basically everything I do seems to make sense. And I think we'll, we'll talk about the trends here that apply.[00:04:09] swyx: It's, it's just very strange. So, like, there's a mix of, like, keeping on top of research while not being a researcher and then putting that research into production. So, like, people always ask me, like, why are you covering Neuralibs? Like, this is a ML research conference and I'm like, well, yeah, I mean, we're not going to, to like, understand everything Or reproduce every single paper, but the stuff that is being found here is going to make it through into production at some point, you hope.[00:04:32] swyx: And then actually like when I talk to the researchers, they actually get very excited because they're like, oh, you guys are actually caring about how this goes into production and that's what they really really want. The measure of success is previously just peer review, right? Getting 7s and 8s on their um, Academic review conferences and stuff like citations is one metric, but money is a better metric.[00:04:51] Alessio: Money is a better metric. Yeah, and there were about 2200 people on the live stream or something like that. Yeah, yeah. Hundred on the live stream. So [00:05:00] I try my best to moderate, but it was a lot spicier in person with Jonathan and, and Dylan. Yeah, that it was in the chat on YouTube.[00:05:06] swyx: I would say that I actually also created.[00:05:09] swyx: Layen Space Live in order to address flaws that are perceived in academic conferences. This is not NeurIPS specific, it's ICML, NeurIPS. Basically, it's very sort of oriented towards the PhD student, uh, market, job market, right? Like literally all, basically everyone's there to advertise their research and skills and get jobs.[00:05:28] swyx: And then obviously all the, the companies go there to hire them. And I think that's great for the individual researchers, but for people going there to get info is not great because you have to read between the lines, bring a ton of context in order to understand every single paper. So what is missing is effectively what I ended up doing, which is domain by domain, go through and recap the best of the year.[00:05:48] swyx: Survey the field. And there are, like NeurIPS had a, uh, I think ICML had a like a position paper track, NeurIPS added a benchmarks, uh, datasets track. These are ways in which to address that [00:06:00] issue. Uh, there's always workshops as well. Every, every conference has, you know, a last day of workshops and stuff that provide more of an overview.[00:06:06] swyx: But they're not specifically prompted to do so. And I think really, uh, Organizing a conference is just about getting good speakers and giving them the correct prompts. And then they will just go and do that thing and they do a very good job of it. So I think Sarah did a fantastic job with the startups prompt.[00:06:21] swyx: I can't list everybody, but we did best of 2024 in startups, vision, open models. Post transformers, synthetic data, small models, and agents. And then the last one was the, uh, and then we also did a quick one on reasoning with Nathan Lambert. And then the last one, obviously, was the debate that people were very hyped about.[00:06:39] swyx: It was very awkward. And I'm really, really thankful for John Franco, basically, who stepped up to challenge Dylan. Because Dylan was like, yeah, I'll do it. But He was pro scaling. And I think everyone who is like in AI is pro scaling, right? So you need somebody who's ready to publicly say, no, we've hit a wall.[00:06:57] swyx: So that means you're saying Sam Altman's wrong. [00:07:00] You're saying, um, you know, everyone else is wrong. It helps that this was the day before Ilya went on, went up on stage and then said pre training has hit a wall. And data has hit a wall. So actually Jonathan ended up winning, and then Ilya supported that statement, and then Noam Brown on the last day further supported that statement as well.[00:07:17] swyx: So it's kind of interesting that I think the consensus kind of going in was that we're not done scaling, like you should believe in a better lesson. And then, four straight days in a row, you had Sepp Hochreiter, who is the creator of the LSTM, along with everyone's favorite OG in AI, which is Juergen Schmidhuber.[00:07:34] swyx: He said that, um, we're pre trading inside a wall, or like, we've run into a different kind of wall. And then we have, you know John Frankel, Ilya, and then Noam Brown are all saying variations of the same thing, that we have hit some kind of wall in the status quo of what pre trained, scaling large pre trained models has looked like, and we need a new thing.[00:07:54] swyx: And obviously the new thing for people is some make, either people are calling it inference time compute or test time [00:08:00] compute. I think the collective terminology has been inference time, and I think that makes sense because test time, calling it test, meaning, has a very pre trained bias, meaning that the only reason for running inference at all is to test your model.[00:08:11] swyx: That is not true. Right. Yeah. So, so, I quite agree that. OpenAI seems to have adopted, or the community seems to have adopted this terminology of ITC instead of TTC. And that, that makes a lot of sense because like now we care about inference, even right down to compute optimality. Like I actually interviewed this author who recovered or reviewed the Chinchilla paper.[00:08:31] swyx: Chinchilla paper is compute optimal training, but what is not stated in there is it's pre trained compute optimal training. And once you start caring about inference, compute optimal training, you have a different scaling law. And in a way that we did not know last year.[00:08:45] Alessio: I wonder, because John is, he's also on the side of attention is all you need.[00:08:49] Alessio: Like he had the bet with Sasha. So I'm curious, like he doesn't believe in scaling, but he thinks the transformer, I wonder if he's still. So, so,[00:08:56] swyx: so he, obviously everything is nuanced and you know, I told him to play a character [00:09:00] for this debate, right? So he actually does. Yeah. He still, he still believes that we can scale more.[00:09:04] swyx: Uh, he just assumed the character to be very game for, for playing this debate. So even more kudos to him that he assumed a position that he didn't believe in and still won the debate.[00:09:16] Alessio: Get rekt, Dylan. Um, do you just want to quickly run through some of these things? Like, uh, Sarah's presentation, just the highlights.[00:09:24] swyx: Yeah, we can't go through everyone's slides, but I pulled out some things as a factor of, like, stuff that we were going to talk about. And we'll[00:09:30] Alessio: publish[00:09:31] swyx: the rest. Yeah, we'll publish on this feed the best of 2024 in those domains. And hopefully people can benefit from the work that our speakers have done.[00:09:39] swyx: But I think it's, uh, these are just good slides. And I've been, I've been looking for a sort of end of year recaps from, from people.[00:09:44] The Competitive AI Landscape[00:09:44] swyx: The field has progressed a lot. You know, I think the max ELO in 2023 on LMSys used to be 1200 for LMSys ELOs. And now everyone is at least at, uh, 1275 in their ELOs, and this is across Gemini, Chadjibuti, [00:10:00] Grok, O1.[00:10:01] swyx: ai, which with their E Large model, and Enthopic, of course. It's a very, very competitive race. There are multiple Frontier labs all racing, but there is a clear tier zero Frontier. And then there's like a tier one. It's like, I wish I had everything else. Tier zero is extremely competitive. It's effectively now three horse race between Gemini, uh, Anthropic and OpenAI.[00:10:21] swyx: I would say that people are still holding out a candle for XAI. XAI, I think, for some reason, because their API was very slow to roll out, is not included in these metrics. So it's actually quite hard to put on there. As someone who also does charts, XAI is continually snubbed because they don't work well with the benchmarking people.[00:10:42] swyx: Yeah, yeah, yeah. It's a little trivia for why XAI always gets ignored. The other thing is market share. So these are slides from Sarah. We have it up on the screen. It has gone from very heavily open AI. So we have some numbers and estimates. These are from RAMP. Estimates of open AI market share in [00:11:00] December 2023.[00:11:01] swyx: And this is basically, what is it, GPT being 95 percent of production traffic. And I think if you correlate that with stuff that we asked. Harrison Chase on the LangChain episode, it was true. And then CLAUD 3 launched mid middle of this year. I think CLAUD 3 launched in March, CLAUD 3. 5 Sonnet was in June ish.[00:11:23] swyx: And you can start seeing the market share shift towards opening, uh, towards that topic, uh, very, very aggressively. The more recent one is Gemini. So if I scroll down a little bit, this is an even more recent dataset. So RAM's dataset ends in September 2 2. 2024. Gemini has basically launched a price war at the low end, uh, with Gemini Flash, uh, being basically free for personal use.[00:11:44] swyx: Like, I think people don't understand the free tier. It's something like a billion tokens per day. Unless you're trying to abuse it, you cannot really exhaust your free tier on Gemini. They're really trying to get you to use it. They know they're in like third place, um, fourth place, depending how you, how you count.[00:11:58] swyx: And so they're going after [00:12:00] the Lower tier first, and then, you know, maybe the upper tier later, but yeah, Gemini Flash, according to OpenRouter, is now 50 percent of their OpenRouter requests. Obviously, these are the small requests. These are small, cheap requests that are mathematically going to be more.[00:12:15] swyx: The smart ones obviously are still going to OpenAI. But, you know, it's a very, very big shift in the market. Like basically 2023, 2022, To going into 2024 opening has gone from nine five market share to Yeah. Reasonably somewhere between 50 to 75 market share.[00:12:29] Alessio: Yeah. I'm really curious how ramped does the attribution to the model?[00:12:32] Alessio: If it's API, because I think it's all credit card spin. . Well, but it's all, the credit card doesn't say maybe. Maybe the, maybe when they do expenses, they upload the PDF, but yeah, the, the German I think makes sense. I think that was one of my main 2024 takeaways that like. The best small model companies are the large labs, which is not something I would have thought that the open source kind of like long tail would be like the small model.[00:12:53] swyx: Yeah, different sizes of small models we're talking about here, right? Like so small model here for Gemini is AB, [00:13:00] right? Uh, mini. We don't know what the small model size is, but yeah, it's probably in the double digits or maybe single digits, but probably double digits. The open source community has kind of focused on the one to three B size.[00:13:11] swyx: Mm-hmm . Yeah. Maybe[00:13:12] swyx: zero, maybe 0.5 B uh, that's moon dream and that is small for you then, then that's great. It makes sense that we, we have a range for small now, which is like, may, maybe one to five B. Yeah. I'll even put that at, at, at the high end. And so this includes Gemma from Gemini as well. But also includes the Apple Foundation models, which I think Apple Foundation is 3B.[00:13:32] Alessio: Yeah. No, that's great. I mean, I think in the start small just meant cheap. I think today small is actually a more nuanced discussion, you know, that people weren't really having before.[00:13:43] swyx: Yeah, we can keep going. This is a slide that I smiley disagree with Sarah. She's pointing to the scale SEAL leaderboard. I think the Researchers that I talked with at NeurIPS were kind of positive on this because basically you need private test [00:14:00] sets to prevent contamination.[00:14:02] swyx: And Scale is one of maybe three or four people this year that has really made an effort in doing a credible private test set leaderboard. Llama405B does well compared to Gemini and GPT 40. And I think that's good. I would say that. You know, it's good to have an open model that is that big, that does well on those metrics.[00:14:23] swyx: But anyone putting 405B in production will tell you, if you scroll down a little bit to the artificial analysis numbers, that it is very slow and very expensive to infer. Um, it doesn't even fit on like one node. of, uh, of H100s. Cerebras will be happy to tell you they can serve 4 or 5B on their super large chips.[00:14:42] swyx: But, um, you know, if you need to do anything custom to it, you're still kind of constrained. So, is 4 or 5B really that relevant? Like, I think most people are basically saying that they only use 4 or 5B as a teacher model to distill down to something. Even Meta is doing it. So with Lama 3. [00:15:00] 3 launched, they only launched the 70B because they use 4 or 5B to distill the 70B.[00:15:03] swyx: So I don't know if like open source is keeping up. I think they're the, the open source industrial complex is very invested in telling you that the, if the gap is narrowing, I kind of disagree. I think that the gap is widening with O1. I think there are very, very smart people trying to narrow that gap and they should.[00:15:22] swyx: I really wish them success, but you cannot use a chart that is nearing 100 in your saturation chart. And look, the distance between open source and closed source is narrowing. Of course it's going to narrow because you're near 100. This is stupid. But in metrics that matter, is open source narrowing?[00:15:38] swyx: Probably not for O1 for a while. And it's really up to the open source guys to figure out if they can match O1 or not.[00:15:46] Alessio: I think inference time compute is bad for open source just because, you know, Doc can donate the flops at training time, but he cannot donate the flops at inference time. So it's really hard to like actually keep up on that axis.[00:15:59] Alessio: Big, big business [00:16:00] model shift. So I don't know what that means for the GPU clouds. I don't know what that means for the hyperscalers, but obviously the big labs have a lot of advantage. Because, like, it's not a static artifact that you're putting the compute in. You're kind of doing that still, but then you're putting a lot of computed inference too.[00:16:17] swyx: Yeah, yeah, yeah. Um, I mean, Llama4 will be reasoning oriented. We talked with Thomas Shalom. Um, kudos for getting that episode together. That was really nice. Good, well timed. Actually, I connected with the AI meta guy, uh, at NeurIPS, and, um, yeah, we're going to coordinate something for Llama4. Yeah, yeah,[00:16:32] Alessio: and our friend, yeah.[00:16:33] Alessio: Clara Shi just joined to lead the business agent side. So I'm sure we'll have her on in the new year.[00:16:39] swyx: Yeah. So, um, my comment on, on the business model shift, this is super interesting. Apparently it is wide knowledge that OpenAI wanted more than 6. 6 billion dollars for their fundraise. They wanted to raise, you know, higher, and they did not.[00:16:51] swyx: And what that means is basically like, it's very convenient that we're not getting GPT 5, which would have been a larger pre train. We should have a lot of upfront money. And [00:17:00] instead we're, we're converting fixed costs into variable costs, right. And passing it on effectively to the customer. And it's so much easier to take margin there because you can directly attribute it to like, Oh, you're using this more.[00:17:12] swyx: Therefore you, you pay more of the cost and I'll just slap a margin in there. So like that lets you control your growth margin and like tie your. Your spend, or your sort of inference spend, accordingly. And it's just really interesting to, that this change in the sort of inference paradigm has arrived exactly at the same time that the funding environment for pre training is effectively drying up, kind of.[00:17:36] swyx: I feel like maybe the VCs are very in tune with research anyway, so like, they would have noticed this, but, um, it's just interesting.[00:17:43] Alessio: Yeah, and I was looking back at our yearly recap of last year. Yeah. And the big thing was like the mixed trial price fights, you know, and I think now it's almost like there's nowhere to go, like, you know, Gemini Flash is like basically giving it away for free.[00:17:55] Alessio: So I think this is a good way for the labs to generate more revenue and pass down [00:18:00] some of the compute to the customer. I think they're going to[00:18:02] swyx: keep going. I think that 2, will come.[00:18:05] Alessio: Yeah, I know. Totally. I mean, next year, the first thing I'm doing is signing up for Devin. Signing up for the pro chat GBT.[00:18:12] Alessio: Just to try. I just want to see what does it look like to spend a thousand dollars a month on AI?[00:18:17] swyx: Yes. Yes. I think if your, if your, your job is a, at least AI content creator or VC or, you know, someone who, whose job it is to stay on, stay on top of things, you should already be spending like a thousand dollars a month on, on stuff.[00:18:28] swyx: And then obviously easy to spend, hard to use. You have to actually use. The good thing is that actually Google lets you do a lot of stuff for free now. So like deep research. That they just launched. Uses a ton of inference and it's, it's free while it's in preview.[00:18:45] Alessio: Yeah. They need to put that in Lindy.[00:18:47] Alessio: I've been using Lindy lately. I've been a built a bunch of things once we had flow because I liked the new thing. It's pretty good. I even did a phone call assistant. Um, yeah, they just launched Lindy voice. Yeah, I think once [00:19:00] they get advanced voice mode like capability today, still like speech to text, you can kind of tell.[00:19:06] Alessio: Um, but it's good for like reservations and things like that. So I have a meeting prepper thing. And so[00:19:13] swyx: it's good. Okay. I feel like we've, we've covered a lot of stuff. Uh, I, yeah, I, you know, I think We will go over the individual, uh, talks in a separate episode. Uh, I don't want to take too much time with, uh, this stuff, but that suffice to say that there is a lot of progress in each field.[00:19:28] swyx: Uh, we covered vision. Basically this is all like the audience voting for what they wanted. And then I just invited the best people I could find in each audience, especially agents. Um, Graham, who I talked to at ICML in Vienna, he is currently still number one. It's very hard to stay on top of SweetBench.[00:19:45] swyx: OpenHand is currently still number one. switchbench full, which is the hardest one. He had very good thoughts on agents, which I, which I'll highlight for people. Everyone is saying 2025 is the year of agents, just like they said last year. And, uh, but he had [00:20:00] thoughts on like eight parts of what are the frontier problems to solve in agents.[00:20:03] swyx: And so I'll highlight that talk as well.[00:20:05] Alessio: Yeah. The number six, which is the Hacken agents learn more about the environment, has been a Super interesting to us as well, just to think through, because, yeah, how do you put an agent in an enterprise where most things in an enterprise have never been public, you know, a lot of the tooling, like the code bases and things like that.[00:20:23] Alessio: So, yeah, there's not indexing and reg. Well, yeah, but it's more like. You can't really rag things that are not documented. But people know them based on how they've been doing it. You know, so I think there's almost this like, you know, Oh, institutional knowledge. Yeah, the boring word is kind of like a business process extraction.[00:20:38] Alessio: Yeah yeah, I see. It's like, how do you actually understand how these things are done? I see. Um, and I think today the, the problem is that, Yeah, the agents are, that most people are building are good at following instruction, but are not as good as like extracting them from you. Um, so I think that will be a big unlock just to touch quickly on the Jeff Dean thing.[00:20:55] Alessio: I thought it was pretty, I mean, we'll link it in the, in the things, but. I think the main [00:21:00] focus was like, how do you use ML to optimize the systems instead of just focusing on ML to do something else? Yeah, I think speculative decoding, we had, you know, Eugene from RWKB on the podcast before, like he's doing a lot of that with Fetterless AI.[00:21:12] swyx: Everyone is. I would say it's the norm. I'm a little bit uncomfortable with how much it costs, because it does use more of the GPU per call. But because everyone is so keen on fast inference, then yeah, makes sense.[00:21:24] Alessio: Exactly. Um, yeah, but we'll link that. Obviously Jeff is great.[00:21:30] swyx: Jeff is, Jeff's talk was more, it wasn't focused on Gemini.[00:21:33] swyx: I think people got the wrong impression from my tweet. It's more about how Google approaches ML and uses ML to design systems and then systems feedback into ML. And I think this ties in with Lubna's talk.[00:21:45] Synthetic Data and Future Trends[00:21:45] swyx: on synthetic data where it's basically the story of bootstrapping of humans and AI in AI research or AI in production.[00:21:53] swyx: So her talk was on synthetic data, where like how much synthetic data has grown in 2024 in the pre training side, the post training side, [00:22:00] and the eval side. And I think Jeff then also extended it basically to chips, uh, to chip design. So he'd spend a lot of time talking about alpha chip. And most of us in the audience are like, we're not working on hardware, man.[00:22:11] swyx: Like you guys are great. TPU is great. Okay. We'll buy TPUs.[00:22:14] Alessio: And then there was the earlier talk. Yeah. But, and then we have, uh, I don't know if we're calling them essays. What are we calling these? But[00:22:23] swyx: for me, it's just like bonus for late in space supporters, because I feel like they haven't been getting anything.[00:22:29] swyx: And then I wanted a more high frequency way to write stuff. Like that one I wrote in an afternoon. I think basically we now have an answer to what Ilya saw. It's one year since. The blip. And we know what he saw in 2014. We know what he saw in 2024. We think we know what he sees in 2024. He gave some hints and then we have vague indications of what he saw in 2023.[00:22:54] swyx: So that was the Oh, and then 2016 as well, because of this lawsuit with Elon, OpenAI [00:23:00] is publishing emails from Sam's, like, his personal text messages to Siobhan, Zelis, or whatever. So, like, we have emails from Ilya saying, this is what we're seeing in OpenAI, and this is why we need to scale up GPUs. And I think it's very prescient in 2016 to write that.[00:23:16] swyx: And so, like, it is exactly, like, basically his insights. It's him and Greg, basically just kind of driving the scaling up of OpenAI, while they're still playing Dota. They're like, no, like, we see the path here.[00:23:30] Alessio: Yeah, and it's funny, yeah, they even mention, you know, we can only train on 1v1 Dota. We need to train on 5v5, and that takes too many GPUs.[00:23:37] Alessio: Yeah,[00:23:37] swyx: and at least for me, I can speak for myself, like, I didn't see the path from Dota to where we are today. I think even, maybe if you ask them, like, they wouldn't necessarily draw a straight line. Yeah,[00:23:47] Alessio: no, definitely. But I think like that was like the whole idea of almost like the RL and we talked about this with Nathan on his podcast.[00:23:55] Alessio: It's like with RL, you can get very good at specific things, but then you can't really like generalize as much. And I [00:24:00] think the language models are like the opposite, which is like, you're going to throw all this data at them and scale them up, but then you really need to drive them home on a specific task later on.[00:24:08] Alessio: And we'll talk about the open AI reinforcement, fine tuning, um, announcement too, and all of that. But yeah, I think like scale is all you need. That's kind of what Elia will be remembered for. And I think just maybe to clarify on like the pre training is over thing that people love to tweet. I think the point of the talk was like everybody, we're scaling these chips, we're scaling the compute, but like the second ingredient which is data is not scaling at the same rate.[00:24:35] Alessio: So it's not necessarily pre training is over. It's kind of like What got us here won't get us there. In his email, he predicted like 10x growth every two years or something like that. And I think maybe now it's like, you know, you can 10x the chips again, but[00:24:49] swyx: I think it's 10x per year. Was it? I don't know.[00:24:52] Alessio: Exactly. And Moore's law is like 2x. So it's like, you know, much faster than that. And yeah, I like the fossil fuel of AI [00:25:00] analogy. It's kind of like, you know, the little background tokens thing. So the OpenAI reinforcement fine tuning is basically like, instead of fine tuning on data, you fine tune on a reward model.[00:25:09] Alessio: So it's basically like, instead of being data driven, it's like task driven. And I think people have tasks to do, they don't really have a lot of data. So I'm curious to see how that changes, how many people fine tune, because I think this is what people run into. It's like, Oh, you can fine tune llama. And it's like, okay, where do I get the data?[00:25:27] Alessio: To fine tune it on, you know, so it's great that we're moving the thing. And then I really like he had this chart where like, you know, the brain mass and the body mass thing is basically like mammals that scaled linearly by brain and body size, and then humans kind of like broke off the slope. So it's almost like maybe the mammal slope is like the pre training slope.[00:25:46] Alessio: And then the post training slope is like the, the human one.[00:25:49] swyx: Yeah. I wonder what the. I mean, we'll know in 10 years, but I wonder what the y axis is for, for Ilya's SSI. We'll try to get them on.[00:25:57] Alessio: Ilya, if you're listening, you're [00:26:00] welcome here. Yeah, and then he had, you know, what comes next, like agent, synthetic data, inference, compute, I thought all of that was like that.[00:26:05] Alessio: I don't[00:26:05] swyx: think he was dropping any alpha there. Yeah, yeah, yeah.[00:26:07] Alessio: Yeah. Any other new reps? Highlights?[00:26:10] swyx: I think that there was comparatively a lot more work. Oh, by the way, I need to plug that, uh, my friend Yi made this, like, little nice paper. Yeah, that was really[00:26:20] swyx: nice.[00:26:20] swyx: Uh, of, uh, of, like, all the, he's, she called it must read papers of 2024.[00:26:26] swyx: So I laid out some of these at NeurIPS, and it was just gone. Like, everyone just picked it up. Because people are dying for, like, little guidance and visualizations And so, uh, I thought it was really super nice that we got there.[00:26:38] Alessio: Should we do a late in space book for each year? Uh, I thought about it. For each year we should.[00:26:42] Alessio: Coffee table book. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Put it in the will. Hi, Will. By the way, we haven't introduced you. He's our new, you know, general organist, Jamie. You need to[00:26:52] swyx: pull up more things. One thing I saw that, uh, Okay, one fun one, and then one [00:27:00] more general one. So the fun one is this paper on agent collusion. This is a paper on steganography.[00:27:06] swyx: This is secret collusion among AI agents, multi agent deception via steganography. I tried to go to NeurIPS in order to find these kinds of papers because the real reason Like NeurIPS this year has a lottery system. A lot of people actually even go and don't buy tickets because they just go and attend the side events.[00:27:22] swyx: And then also the people who go and end up crowding around the most popular papers, which you already know and already read them before you showed up to NeurIPS. So the only reason you go there is to talk to the paper authors, but there's like something like 10, 000 other. All these papers out there that, you know, are just people's work that they, that they did on the air and they failed to get attention for one reason or another.[00:27:42] swyx: And this was one of them. Uh, it was like all the way at the back. And this is a deep mind paper that actually focuses on collusion between AI agents, uh, by hiding messages in the text that they generate. Uh, so that's what steganography is. So a very simple example would be the first letter of every word.[00:27:57] swyx: If you Pick that out, you know, and the code sends a [00:28:00] different message than that. But something I've always emphasized is to LLMs, we read left to right. LLMs can read up, down, sideways, you know, in random character order. And it's the same to them as it is to us. So if we were ever to get You know, self motivated, underlined LLMs that we're trying to collaborate to take over the planet.[00:28:19] swyx: This would be how they do it. They spread messages among us in the messages that we generate. And he developed a scaling law for that. So he marked, I'm showing it on screen right now, the emergence of this phenomenon. Basically, for example, for Cypher encoding, GPT 2, Lama 2, mixed trial, GPT 3. 5, zero capabilities, and sudden 4.[00:28:40] swyx: And this is the kind of Jason Wei type emergence properties that people kind of look for. I think what made this paper stand out as well, so he developed the benchmark for steganography collusion, and he also focused on shelling point collusion, which is very low coordination. For agreeing on a decoding encoding format, you kind of need to have some [00:29:00] agreement on that.[00:29:00] swyx: But, but shelling point means like very, very low or almost no coordination. So for example, if I, if I ask someone, if the only message I give you is meet me in New York and you're not aware. Or when you would probably meet me at Grand Central Station. That is the Grand Central Station is a shelling point.[00:29:16] swyx: And it's probably somewhere, somewhere during the day. That is the shelling point of New York is Grand Central. To that extent, shelling points for steganography are things like the, the, the common decoding methods that we talked about. It will be interesting at some point in the future when we are worried about alignment.[00:29:30] swyx: It is not interesting today, but it's interesting that DeepMind is already thinking about this.[00:29:36] Alessio: I think that's like one of the hardest things about NeurIPS. It's like the long tail. I[00:29:41] swyx: found a pricing guy. I'm going to feature him on the podcast. Basically, this guy from NVIDIA worked out the optimal pricing for language models.[00:29:51] swyx: It's basically an econometrics paper at NeurIPS, where everyone else is talking about GPUs. And the guy with the GPUs is[00:29:57] Alessio: talking[00:29:57] swyx: about economics instead. [00:30:00] That was the sort of fun one. So the focus I saw is that model papers at NeurIPS are kind of dead. No one really presents models anymore. It's just data sets.[00:30:12] swyx: This is all the grad students are working on. So like there was a data sets track and then I was looking around like, I was like, you don't need a data sets track because every paper is a data sets paper. And so data sets and benchmarks, they're kind of flip sides of the same thing. So Yeah. Cool. Yeah, if you're a grad student, you're a GPU boy, you kind of work on that.[00:30:30] swyx: And then the, the sort of big model that people walk around and pick the ones that they like, and then they use it in their models. And that's, that's kind of how it develops. I, I feel like, um, like, like you didn't last year, you had people like Hao Tian who worked on Lava, which is take Lama and add Vision.[00:30:47] swyx: And then obviously actually I hired him and he added Vision to Grok. Now he's the Vision Grok guy. This year, I don't think there was any of those.[00:30:55] Alessio: What were the most popular, like, orals? Last year it was like the [00:31:00] Mixed Monarch, I think, was like the most attended. Yeah, uh, I need to look it up. Yeah, I mean, if nothing comes to mind, that's also kind of like an answer in a way.[00:31:10] Alessio: But I think last year there was a lot of interest in, like, furthering models and, like, different architectures and all of that.[00:31:16] swyx: I will say that I felt the orals, oral picks this year were not very good. Either that or maybe it's just a So that's the highlight of how I have changed in terms of how I view papers.[00:31:29] swyx: So like, in my estimation, two of the best papers in this year for datasets or data comp and refined web or fine web. These are two actually industrially used papers, not highlighted for a while. I think DCLM got the spotlight, FineWeb didn't even get the spotlight. So like, it's just that the picks were different.[00:31:48] swyx: But one thing that does get a lot of play that a lot of people are debating is the role that's scheduled. This is the schedule free optimizer paper from Meta from Aaron DeFazio. And this [00:32:00] year in the ML community, there's been a lot of chat about shampoo, soap, all the bathroom amenities for optimizing your learning rates.[00:32:08] swyx: And, uh, most people at the big labs are. Who I asked about this, um, say that it's cute, but it's not something that matters. I don't know, but it's something that was discussed and very, very popular. 4Wars[00:32:19] Alessio: of AI recap maybe, just quickly. Um, where do you want to start? Data?[00:32:26] swyx: So to remind people, this is the 4Wars piece that we did as one of our earlier recaps of this year.[00:32:31] swyx: And the belligerents are on the left, journalists, writers, artists, anyone who owns IP basically, New York Times, Stack Overflow, Reddit, Getty, Sarah Silverman, George RR Martin. Yeah, and I think this year we can add Scarlett Johansson to that side of the fence. So anyone suing, open the eye, basically. I actually wanted to get a snapshot of all the lawsuits.[00:32:52] swyx: I'm sure some lawyer can do it. That's the data quality war. On the right hand side, we have the synthetic data people, and I think we talked about Lumna's talk, you know, [00:33:00] really showing how much synthetic data has come along this year. I think there was a bit of a fight between scale. ai and the synthetic data community, because scale.[00:33:09] swyx: ai published a paper saying that synthetic data doesn't work. Surprise, surprise, scale. ai is the leading vendor of non synthetic data. Only[00:33:17] Alessio: cage free annotated data is useful.[00:33:21] swyx: So I think there's some debate going on there, but I don't think it's much debate anymore that at least synthetic data, for the reasons that are blessed in Luna's talk, Makes sense.[00:33:32] swyx: I don't know if you have any perspectives there.[00:33:34] Alessio: I think, again, going back to the reinforcement fine tuning, I think that will change a little bit how people think about it. I think today people mostly use synthetic data, yeah, for distillation and kind of like fine tuning a smaller model from like a larger model.[00:33:46] Alessio: I'm not super aware of how the frontier labs use it outside of like the rephrase, the web thing that Apple also did. But yeah, I think it'll be. Useful. I think like whether or not that gets us the big [00:34:00] next step, I think that's maybe like TBD, you know, I think people love talking about data because it's like a GPU poor, you know, I think, uh, synthetic data is like something that people can do, you know, so they feel more opinionated about it compared to, yeah, the optimizers stuff, which is like,[00:34:17] swyx: they don't[00:34:17] Alessio: really work[00:34:18] swyx: on.[00:34:18] swyx: I think that there is an angle to the reasoning synthetic data. So this year, we covered in the paper club, the star series of papers. So that's star, Q star, V star. It basically helps you to synthesize reasoning steps, or at least distill reasoning steps from a verifier. And if you look at the OpenAI RFT, API that they released, or that they announced, basically they're asking you to submit graders, or they choose from a preset list of graders.[00:34:49] swyx: Basically It feels like a way to create valid synthetic data for them to fine tune their reasoning paths on. Um, so I think that is another angle where it starts to make sense. And [00:35:00] so like, it's very funny that basically all the data quality wars between Let's say the music industry or like the newspaper publishing industry or the textbooks industry on the big labs.[00:35:11] swyx: It's all of the pre training era. And then like the new era, like the reasoning era, like nobody has any problem with all the reasoning, especially because it's all like sort of math and science oriented with, with very reasonable graders. I think the more interesting next step is how does it generalize beyond STEM?[00:35:27] swyx: We've been using O1 for And I would say like for summarization and creative writing and instruction following, I think it's underrated. I started using O1 in our intro songs before we killed the intro songs, but it's very good at writing lyrics. You know, I can actually say like, I think one of the O1 pro demos.[00:35:46] swyx: All of these things that Noam was showing was that, you know, you can write an entire paragraph or three paragraphs without using the letter A, right?[00:35:53] Creative Writing with AI[00:35:53] swyx: So like, like literally just anything instead of token, like not even token level, character level manipulation and [00:36:00] counting and instruction following. It's, uh, it's very, very strong.[00:36:02] swyx: And so no surprises when I ask it to rhyme, uh, and to, to create song lyrics, it's going to do that very much better than in previous models. So I think it's underrated for creative writing.[00:36:11] Alessio: Yeah.[00:36:12] Legal and Ethical Issues in AI[00:36:12] Alessio: What do you think is the rationale that they're going to have in court when they don't show you the thinking traces of O1, but then they want us to, like, they're getting sued for using other publishers data, you know, but then on their end, they're like, well, you shouldn't be using my data to then train your model.[00:36:29] Alessio: So I'm curious to see how that kind of comes. Yeah, I mean, OPA has[00:36:32] swyx: many ways to publish, to punish people without bringing, taking them to court. Already banned ByteDance for distilling their, their info. And so anyone caught distilling the chain of thought will be just disallowed to continue on, on, on the API.[00:36:44] swyx: And it's fine. It's no big deal. Like, I don't even think that's an issue at all, just because the chain of thoughts are pretty well hidden. Like you have to work very, very hard to, to get it to leak. And then even when it leaks the chain of thought, you don't know if it's, if it's [00:37:00] The bigger concern is actually that there's not that much IP hiding behind it, that Cosign, which we talked about, we talked to him on Dev Day, can just fine tune 4.[00:37:13] swyx: 0 to beat 0. 1 Cloud SONET so far is beating O1 on coding tasks without, at least O1 preview, without being a reasoning model, same for Gemini Pro or Gemini 2. 0. So like, how much is reasoning important? How much of a moat is there in this, like, All of these are proprietary sort of training data that they've presumably accomplished.[00:37:34] swyx: Because even DeepSeek was able to do it. And they had, you know, two months notice to do this, to do R1. So, it's actually unclear how much moat there is. Obviously, you know, if you talk to the Strawberry team, they'll be like, yeah, I mean, we spent the last two years doing this. So, we don't know. And it's going to be Interesting because there'll be a lot of noise from people who say they have inference time compute and actually don't because they just have fancy chain of thought.[00:38:00][00:38:00] swyx: And then there's other people who actually do have very good chain of thought. And you will not see them on the same level as OpenAI because OpenAI has invested a lot in building up the mythology of their team. Um, which makes sense. Like the real answer is somewhere in between.[00:38:13] Alessio: Yeah, I think that's kind of like the main data war story developing.[00:38:18] The Data War: GPU Poor vs. GPU Rich[00:38:18] Alessio: GPU poor versus GPU rich. Yeah. Where do you think we are? I think there was, again, going back to like the small model thing, there was like a time in which the GPU poor were kind of like the rebel faction working on like these models that were like open and small and cheap. And I think today people don't really care as much about GPUs anymore.[00:38:37] Alessio: You also see it in the price of the GPUs. Like, you know, that market is kind of like plummeted because there's people don't want to be, they want to be GPU free. They don't even want to be poor. They just want to be, you know, completely without them. Yeah. How do you think about this war? You[00:38:52] swyx: can tell me about this, but like, I feel like the, the appetite for GPU rich startups, like the, you know, the, the funding plan is we will raise 60 million and [00:39:00] we'll give 50 of that to NVIDIA.[00:39:01] swyx: That is gone, right? Like, no one's, no one's pitching that. This was literally the plan, the exact plan of like, I can name like four or five startups, you know, this time last year. So yeah, GPU rich startups gone.[00:39:12] The Rise of GPU Ultra Rich[00:39:12] swyx: But I think like, The GPU ultra rich, the GPU ultra high net worth is still going. So, um, now we're, you know, we had Leopold's essay on the trillion dollar cluster.[00:39:23] swyx: We're not quite there yet. We have multiple labs, um, you know, XAI very famously, you know, Jensen Huang praising them for being. Best boy number one in spinning up 100, 000 GPU cluster in like 12 days or something. So likewise at Meta, likewise at OpenAI, likewise at the other labs as well. So like the GPU ultra rich are going to keep doing that because I think partially it's an article of faith now that you just need it.[00:39:46] swyx: Like you don't even know what it's going to, what you're going to use it for. You just, you just need it. And it makes sense that if, especially if we're going into. More researchy territory than we are. So let's say 2020 to 2023 was [00:40:00] let's scale big models territory because we had GPT 3 in 2020 and we were like, okay, we'll go from 1.[00:40:05] swyx: 75b to 1. 8b, 1. 8t. And that was GPT 3 to GPT 4. Okay, that's done. As far as everyone is concerned, Opus 3. 5 is not coming out, GPT 4. 5 is not coming out, and Gemini 2, we don't have Pro, whatever. We've hit that wall. Maybe I'll call it the 2 trillion perimeter wall. We're not going to 10 trillion. No one thinks it's a good idea, at least from training costs, from the amount of data, or at least the inference.[00:40:36] swyx: Would you pay 10x the price of GPT Probably not. Like, like you want something else that, that is at least more useful. So it makes sense that people are pivoting in terms of their inference paradigm.[00:40:47] Emerging Trends in AI Models[00:40:47] swyx: And so when it's more researchy, then you actually need more just general purpose compute to mess around with, uh, at the exact same time that production deployments of the old, the previous paradigm is still ramping up,[00:40:58] swyx: um,[00:40:58] swyx: uh, pretty aggressively.[00:40:59] swyx: So [00:41:00] it makes sense that the GPU rich are growing. We have now interviewed both together and fireworks and replicates. Uh, we haven't done any scale yet. But I think Amazon, maybe kind of a sleeper one, Amazon, in a sense of like they, at reInvent, I wasn't expecting them to do so well, but they are now a foundation model lab.[00:41:18] swyx: It's kind of interesting. Um, I think, uh, you know, David went over there and started just creating models.[00:41:25] Alessio: Yeah, I mean, that's the power of prepaid contracts. I think like a lot of AWS customers, you know, they do this big reserve instance contracts and now they got to use their money. That's why so many startups.[00:41:37] Alessio: Get bought through the AWS marketplace so they can kind of bundle them together and prefer pricing.[00:41:42] swyx: Okay, so maybe GPU super rich doing very well, GPU middle class dead, and then GPU[00:41:48] Alessio: poor. I mean, my thing is like, everybody should just be GPU rich. There shouldn't really be, even the GPU poorest, it's like, does it really make sense to be GPU poor?[00:41:57] Alessio: Like, if you're GPU poor, you should just use the [00:42:00] cloud. Yes, you know, and I think there might be a future once we kind of like figure out what the size and shape of these models is where like the tiny box and these things come to fruition where like you can be GPU poor at home. But I think today is like, why are you working so hard to like get these models to run on like very small clusters where it's like, It's so cheap to run them.[00:42:21] Alessio: Yeah, yeah,[00:42:22] swyx: yeah. I think mostly people think it's cool. People think it's a stepping stone to scaling up. So they aspire to be GPU rich one day and they're working on new methods. Like news research, like probably the most deep tech thing they've done this year is Distro or whatever the new name is.[00:42:38] swyx: There's a lot of interest in heterogeneous computing, distributed computing. I tend generally to de emphasize that historically, but it may be coming to a time where it is starting to be relevant. I don't know. You know, SF compute launched their compute marketplace this year, and like, who's really using that?[00:42:53] swyx: Like, it's a bunch of small clusters, disparate types of compute, and if you can make that [00:43:00] useful, then that will be very beneficial to the broader community, but maybe still not the source of frontier models. It's just going to be a second tier of compute that is unlocked for people, and that's fine. But yeah, I mean, I think this year, I would say a lot more on device, We are, I now have Apple intelligence on my phone.[00:43:19] swyx: Doesn't do anything apart from summarize my notifications. But still, not bad. Like, it's multi modal.[00:43:25] Alessio: Yeah, the notification summaries are so and so in my experience.[00:43:29] swyx: Yeah, but they add, they add juice to life. And then, um, Chrome Nano, uh, Gemini Nano is coming out in Chrome. Uh, they're still feature flagged, but you can, you can try it now if you, if you use the, uh, the alpha.[00:43:40] swyx: And so, like, I, I think, like, you know, We're getting the sort of GPU poor version of a lot of these things coming out, and I think it's like quite useful. Like Windows as well, rolling out RWKB in sort of every Windows department is super cool. And I think the last thing that I never put in this GPU poor war, that I think I should now, [00:44:00] is the number of startups that are GPU poor but still scaling very well, as sort of wrappers on top of either a foundation model lab, or GPU Cloud.[00:44:10] swyx: GPU Cloud, it would be Suno. Suno, Ramp has rated as one of the top ranked, fastest growing startups of the year. Um, I think the last public number is like zero to 20 million this year in ARR and Suno runs on Moto. So Suno itself is not GPU rich, but they're just doing the training on, on Moto, uh, who we've also talked to on, on the podcast.[00:44:31] swyx: The other one would be Bolt, straight cloud wrapper. And, and, um, Again, another, now they've announced 20 million ARR, which is another step up from our 8 million that we put on the title. So yeah, I mean, it's crazy that all these GPU pores are finding a way while the GPU riches are also finding a way. And then the only failures, I kind of call this the GPU smiling curve, where the edges do well, because you're either close to the machines, and you're like [00:45:00] number one on the machines, or you're like close to the customers, and you're number one on the customer side.[00:45:03] swyx: And the people who are in the middle. Inflection, um, character, didn't do that great. I think character did the best of all of them. Like, you have a note in here that we apparently said that character's price tag was[00:45:15] Alessio: 1B.[00:45:15] swyx: Did I say that?[00:45:16] Alessio: Yeah. You said Google should just buy them for 1B. I thought it was a crazy number.[00:45:20] Alessio: Then they paid 2. 7 billion. I mean, for like,[00:45:22] swyx: yeah.[00:45:22] Alessio: What do you pay for node? Like, I don't know what the game world was like. Maybe the starting price was 1B. I mean, whatever it was, it worked out for everybody involved.[00:45:31] The Multi-Modality War[00:45:31] Alessio: Multimodality war. And this one, we never had text to video in the first version, which now is the hottest.[00:45:37] swyx: Yeah, I would say it's a subset of image, but yes.[00:45:40] Alessio: Yeah, well, but I think at the time it wasn't really something people were doing, and now we had VO2 just came out yesterday. Uh, Sora was released last month, last week. I've not tried Sora, because the day that I tried, it wasn't, yeah. I[00:45:54] swyx: think it's generally available now, you can go to Sora.[00:45:56] swyx: com and try it. Yeah, they had[00:45:58] Alessio: the outage. Which I [00:46:00] think also played a part into it. Small things. Yeah. What's the other model that you posted today that was on Replicate? Video or OneLive?[00:46:08] swyx: Yeah. Very, very nondescript name, but it is from Minimax, which I think is a Chinese lab. The Chinese labs do surprisingly well at the video models.[00:46:20] swyx: I'm not sure it's actually Chinese. I don't know. Hold me up to that. Yep. China. It's good. Yeah, the Chinese love video. What can I say? They have a lot of training data for video. Or a more relaxed regulatory environment.[00:46:37] Alessio: Uh, well, sure, in some way. Yeah, I don't think there's much else there. I think like, you know, on the image side, I think it's still open.[00:46:45] Alessio: Yeah, I mean,[00:46:46] swyx: 11labs is now a unicorn. So basically, what is multi modality war? Multi modality war is, do you specialize in a single modality, right? Or do you have GodModel that does all the modalities? So this is [00:47:00] definitely still going, in a sense of 11 labs, you know, now Unicorn, PicoLabs doing well, they launched Pico 2.[00:47:06] swyx: 0 recently, HeyGen, I think has reached 100 million ARR, Assembly, I don't know, but they have billboards all over the place, so I assume they're doing very, very well. So these are all specialist models, specialist models and specialist startups. And then there's the big labs who are doing the sort of all in one play.[00:47:24] swyx: And then here I would highlight Gemini 2 for having native image output. Have you seen the demos? Um, yeah, it's, it's hard to keep up. Literally they launched this last week and a shout out to Paige Bailey, who came to the Latent Space event to demo on the day of launch. And she wasn't prepared. She was just like, I'm just going to show you.[00:47:43] swyx: So they have voice. They have, you know, obviously image input, and then they obviously can code gen and all that. But the new one that OpenAI and Meta both have but they haven't launched yet is image output. So you can literally, um, I think their demo video was that you put in an image of a [00:48:00] car, and you ask for minor modifications to that car.[00:48:02] swyx: They can generate you that modification exactly as you asked. So there's no need for the stable diffusion or comfy UI workflow of like mask here and then like infill there in paint there and all that, all that stuff. This is small model nonsense. Big model people are like, huh, we got you in as everything in the transformer.[00:48:21] swyx: This is the multimodality war, which is, do you, do you bet on the God model or do you string together a whole bunch of, uh, Small models like a, like a chump. Yeah,[00:48:29] Alessio: I don't know, man. Yeah, that would be interesting. I mean, obviously I use Midjourney for all of our thumbnails. Um, they've been doing a ton on the product, I would say.[00:48:38] Alessio: They launched a new Midjourney editor thing. They've been doing a ton. Because I think, yeah, the motto is kind of like, Maybe, you know, people say black forest, the black forest models are better than mid journey on a pixel by pixel basis. But I think when you put it, put it together, have you tried[00:48:53] swyx: the same problems on black forest?[00:48:55] Alessio: Yes. But the problem is just like, you know, on black forest, it generates one image. And then it's like, you got to [00:49:00] regenerate. You don't have all these like UI things. Like what I do, no, but it's like time issue, you know, it's like a mid[00:49:06] swyx: journey. Call the API four times.[00:49:08] Alessio: No, but then there's no like variate.[00:49:10] Alessio: Like the good thing about mid journey is like, you just go in there and you're cooking. There's a lot of stuff that just makes it really easy. And I think people underestimate that. Like, it's not really a skill issue, because I'm paying mid journey, so it's a Black Forest skill issue, because I'm not paying them, you know?[00:49:24] Alessio: Yeah,[00:49:25] swyx: so, okay, so, uh, this is a UX thing, right? Like, you, you, you understand that, at least, we think that Black Forest should be able to do all that stuff. I will also shout out, ReCraft has come out, uh, on top of the image arena that, uh, artificial analysis has done, has apparently, uh, Flux's place. Is this still true?[00:49:41] swyx: So, Artificial Analysis is now a company. I highlighted them I think in one of the early AI Newses of the year. And they have launched a whole bunch of arenas. So, they're trying to take on LM Arena, Anastasios and crew. And they have an image arena. Oh yeah, Recraft v3 is now beating Flux 1. 1. Which is very surprising [00:50:00] because Flux And Black Forest Labs are the old stable diffusion crew who left stability after, um, the management issues.[00:50:06] swyx: So Recurve has come from nowhere to be the top image model. Uh, very, very strange. I would also highlight that Grok has now launched Aurora, which is, it's very interesting dynamics between Grok and Black Forest Labs because Grok's images were originally launched, uh, in partnership with Black Forest Labs as a, as a thin wrapper.[00:50:24] swyx: And then Grok was like, no, we'll make our own. And so they've made their own. I don't know, there are no APIs or benchmarks about it. They just announced it. So yeah, that's the multi modality war. I would say that so far, the small model, the dedicated model people are winning, because they are just focused on their tasks.[00:50:42] swyx: But the big model, People are always catching up. And the moment I saw the Gemini 2 demo of image editing, where I can put in an image and just request it and it does, that's how AI should work. Not like a whole bunch of complicated steps. So it really is something. And I think one frontier that we haven't [00:51:00] seen this year, like obviously video has done very well, and it will continue to grow.[00:51:03] swyx: You know, we only have Sora Turbo today, but at some point we'll get full Sora. Oh, at least the Hollywood Labs will get Fulsora. We haven't seen video to audio, or video synced to audio. And so the researchers that I talked to are already starting to talk about that as the next frontier. But there's still maybe like five more years of video left to actually be Soda.[00:51:23] swyx: I would say that Gemini's approach Compared to OpenAI, Gemini seems, or DeepMind's approach to video seems a lot more fully fledged than OpenAI. Because if you look at the ICML recap that I published that so far nobody has listened to, um, that people have listened to it. It's just a different, definitely different audience.[00:51:43] swyx: It's only seven hours long. Why are people not listening? It's like everything in Uh, so, so DeepMind has, is working on Genie. They also launched Genie 2 and VideoPoet. So, like, they have maybe four years advantage on world modeling that OpenAI does not have. Because OpenAI basically only started [00:52:00] Diffusion Transformers last year, you know, when they hired, uh, Bill Peebles.[00:52:03] swyx: So, DeepMind has, has a bit of advantage here, I would say, in, in, in showing, like, the reason that VO2, while one, They cherry pick their videos. So obviously it looks better than Sora, but the reason I would believe that VO2, uh, when it's fully launched will do very well is because they have all this background work in video that they've done for years.[00:52:22] swyx: Like, like last year's NeurIPS, I already was interviewing some of their video people. I forget their model name, but for, for people who are dedicated fans, they can go to NeurIPS 2023 and see, see that paper.[00:52:32] Alessio: And then last but not least, the LLMOS. We renamed it to Ragops, formerly known as[00:52:39] swyx: Ragops War. I put the latest chart on the Braintrust episode.[00:52:43] swyx: I think I'm going to separate these essays from the episode notes. So the reason I used to do that, by the way, is because I wanted to show up on Hacker News. I wanted the podcast to show up on Hacker News. So I always put an essay inside of there because Hacker News people like to read and not listen.[00:52:58] Alessio: So episode essays,[00:52:59] swyx: I remember [00:53:00] purchasing them separately. You say Lanchain Llama Index is still growing.[00:53:03] Alessio: Yeah, so I looked at the PyPy stats, you know. I don't care about stars. On PyPy you see Do you want to share your screen? Yes. I prefer to look at actual downloads, not at stars on GitHub. So if you look at, you know, Lanchain still growing.[00:53:20] Alessio: These are the last six months. Llama Index still growing. What I've basically seen is like things that, One, obviously these things have A commercial product. So there's like people buying this and sticking with it versus kind of hopping in between things versus, you know, for example, crew AI, not really growing as much.[00:53:38] Alessio: The stars are growing. If you look on GitHub, like the stars are growing, but kind of like the usage is kind of like flat. In the last six months, have they done some[00:53:4

Like the show? Send us a text message on what you liked.I had never heard of Edmond Safra until I read Daniel Gross's informative and inspiring biography, A Banker's Journey.For those who knew him and did business with him, he was everyone's favorite banker. His banks never had to write off loans, and many of his early deals were on a handshake. He never needed a government bailout, nor did he ever head to DC complaining about regulations. While his professional and personal story is uplifting, the Shakespearian periods of his life include the American Express saga and how he died.During this conversation, Dan Gross gives us a dozen compelling reasons to revisit this banker's remarkable life.Make More with Matt HeslinExplore strategies to thrive financially, build legacy, and enhance life experiences.Listen on: Apple Podcasts Spotify

Philippe AghionCollège de FranceÉconomie des institutions, de l'innovation et de la croissanceAnnée 2023-2024Colloque - Conference on the Economics of Innovation in Memory of Zvi Griliches : Economics of Science 1 - The Systemic Effects of Mission-Oriented Research: World War II and the Mid-Century Expansion of BiomedicineColloque en anglais organisé par Philippe Aghion, Lee Branstetter et Adam Jaffe.Intervenant(s)Dan Gross, "The Systemic Effects of Mission-Oriented Research: World War II and the Mid-Century Expansionof Biomedicine"(Co-author: B. Sampat)Discussant: Pierre Azoulay

In this final episode of Season 1 of "Live Local, Give Local" listeners enjoy a great conversation between Charles Parisi, the Host (filling in for Dave Mason), this episode's co-host, Adriana O'Donnell, and the team from San Marcos Promise, Lisa Stout, the Executive Director, and Dan Gross, who spearheads Community Development. In a fun episode where the benefit of belonging to San Diego Gives happened live on the air, Lisa and Dan share with listeners the power, the purpose and the promise of the organization. Helping students in North County San Diego find their next steps after high school is in many respects fueled by lack of resources in many school districts for high school counselors. Lisa, a counselor for 20 years, mentions that schools can have anywhere from 450 - 600 students for every counselor. Thus, the need for San Marcos Promise and their many services to help students find their fit, their way, their path. Speaking of next steps, listeners are treated to exciting "on the air" breaking news! The success of San Marcos Promise has led the organization to consider what is next in their quest to help more students. And what did they decide? An entire new brand to reflect the new direction and ethos - they will now be known as Project Next! Special thanks to Lisa Stout and Dan Gross for joining and helping close out Season 1 of "Live Local, Give Local." For more information on San Marcos Promise and Project Next, we encourage you to visit www.projectnext.org. Thank you for listening and giving where you're living! Building local capacity for non-profits to foster phenomenal relationships and best practices is the heart and soul of San Diego Gives. For more information on the many services of San Diego Gives, please visit www.SanDiegoGives.org.

This podcast is a commentary and does not contain any copyrighted material of the reference source. We strongly recommend accessing/buying the reference source at the same time. ■Reference Source https://www.ted.com/talks/dan_gross_why_gun_violence_can_t_be_our_new_normal ■Post on this topic (You can get FREE learning materials!) https://englist.me/153-academic-words-reference-from-dan-gross-why-gun-violence-cant-be-our-new-normal-ted-talk/ ■Youtube Video https://youtu.be/BiAdbfRFXfk (All Words) https://youtu.be/z5hQdPkDm70 (Advanced Words) https://youtu.be/MK_o6WOoTTg (Quick Look) ■Top Page for Further Materials https://englist.me/ ■SNS (Please follow!)

2023 is the year of Multimodal AI, and Latent Space is going multimodal too! * This podcast comes with a video demo at the 1hr mark and it's a good excuse to launch our YouTube - please subscribe! * We are also holding two events in San Francisco — the first AI | UX meetup next week (already full; we'll send a recap here on the newsletter) and Latent Space Liftoff Day on May 4th (signup here; but get in touch if you have a high profile launch you'd like to make). * We also joined the Chroma/OpenAI ChatGPT Plugins Hackathon last week where we won the Turing and Replit awards and met some of you in person!This post featured on Hacker News.Out of the five senses of the human body, I'd put sight at the very top. But weirdly when it comes to AI, Computer Vision has felt left out of the recent wave compared to image generation, text reasoning, and even audio transcription. We got our first taste of it with the OCR capabilities demo in the GPT-4 Developer Livestream, but to date GPT-4's vision capability has not yet been released. Meta AI leapfrogged OpenAI and everyone else by fully open sourcing their Segment Anything Model (SAM) last week, complete with paper, model, weights, data (6x more images and 400x more masks than OpenImages), and a very slick demo website. This is a marked change to their previous LLaMA release, which was not commercially licensed. The response has been ecstatic:SAM was the talk of the town at the ChatGPT Plugins Hackathon and I was fortunate enough to book Joseph Nelson who was frantically integrating SAM into Roboflow this past weekend. As a passionate instructor, hacker, and founder, Joseph is possibly the single best person in the world to bring the rest of us up to speed on the state of Computer Vision and the implications of SAM. I was already a fan of him from his previous pod with (hopefully future guest) Beyang Liu of Sourcegraph, so this served as a personal catchup as well. Enjoy! and let us know what other news/models/guests you'd like to have us discuss! - swyxRecorded in-person at the beautiful StudioPod studios in San Francisco.Full transcript is below the fold.Show Notes* Joseph's links: Twitter, Linkedin, Personal* Sourcegraph Podcast and Game Theory Story* Represently* Roboflow at Pioneer and YCombinator* Udacity Self Driving Car dataset story* Computer Vision Annotation Formats* SAM recap - top things to know for those living in a cave* https://segment-anything.com/* https://segment-anything.com/demo* https://arxiv.org/pdf/2304.02643.pdf * https://ai.facebook.com/blog/segment-anything-foundation-model-image-segmentation/* https://blog.roboflow.com/segment-anything-breakdown/* https://ai.facebook.com/datasets/segment-anything/* Ask Roboflow https://ask.roboflow.ai/* GPT-4 Multimodal https://blog.roboflow.com/gpt-4-impact-speculation/Cut for time:* WSJ mention* Des Moines Register story* All In Pod: timestamped mention* In Forbes: underrepresented investors in Series A* Roboflow greatest hits* https://blog.roboflow.com/mountain-dew-contest-computer-vision/* https://blog.roboflow.com/self-driving-car-dataset-missing-pedestrians/* https://blog.roboflow.com/nerualhash-collision/ and Apple CSAM issue * https://www.rf100.org/Timestamps* [00:00:19] Introducing Joseph* [00:02:28] Why Iowa* [00:05:52] Origin of Roboflow* [00:16:12] Why Computer Vision* [00:17:50] Computer Vision Use Cases* [00:26:15] The Economics of Annotation/Segmentation* [00:32:17] Computer Vision Annotation Formats* [00:36:41] Intro to Computer Vision & Segmentation* [00:39:08] YOLO* [00:44:44] World Knowledge of Foundation Models* [00:46:21] Segment Anything Model* [00:51:29] SAM: Zero Shot Transfer* [00:51:53] SAM: Promptability* [00:53:24] SAM: Model Assisted Labeling* [00:56:03] SAM doesn't have labels* [00:59:23] Labeling on the Browser* [01:00:28] Roboflow + SAM Video Demo * [01:07:27] Future Predictions* [01:08:04] GPT4 Multimodality* [01:09:27] Remaining Hard Problems* [01:13:57] Ask Roboflow (2019)* [01:15:26] How to keep up in AITranscripts[00:00:00] Hello everyone. It is me swyx and I'm here with Joseph Nelson. Hey, welcome to the studio. It's nice. Thanks so much having me. We, uh, have a professional setup in here.[00:00:19] Introducing Joseph[00:00:19] Joseph, you and I have known each other online for a little bit. I first heard about you on the Source Graph podcast with bian and I highly, highly recommend that there's a really good game theory story that is the best YC application story I've ever heard and I won't tease further cuz they should go listen to that.[00:00:36] What do you think? It's a good story. It's a good story. It's a good story. So you got your Bachelor of Economics from George Washington, by the way. Fun fact. I'm also an econ major as well. You are very politically active, I guess you, you did a lot of, um, interning in political offices and you were responding to, um, the, the, the sheer amount of load that the Congress people have in terms of the, the support.[00:01:00] So you built, representing, which is Zendesk for Congress. And, uh, I liked in your source guide podcast how you talked about how being more responsive to, to constituents is always a good thing no matter what side of the aisle you're on. You also had a sideline as a data science instructor at General Assembly.[00:01:18] As a consultant in your own consultancy, and you also did a bunch of hackathon stuff with Magic Sudoku, which is your transition from N L P into computer vision. And apparently at TechCrunch Disrupt, disrupt in 2019, you tried to add chess and that was your whole villain origin story for, Hey, computer vision's too hard.[00:01:36] That's full, the platform to do that. Uh, and now you're co-founder c e o of RoboFlow. So that's your bio. Um, what's not in there that[00:01:43] people should know about you? One key thing that people realize within maybe five minutes of meeting me, uh, I'm from Iowa. Yes. And it's like a funnily novel thing. I mean, you know, growing up in Iowa, it's like everyone you know is from Iowa.[00:01:56] But then when I left to go to school, there was not that many Iowans at gw and people were like, oh, like you're, you're Iowa Joe. Like, you know, how'd you find out about this school out here? I was like, oh, well the Pony Express was running that day, so I was able to send. So I really like to lean into it.[00:02:11] And so you kind of become a default ambassador for places that. People don't meet a lot of other people from, so I've kind of taken that upon myself to just make it be a, a part of my identity. So, you know, my handle everywhere Joseph of Iowa, like I I, you can probably find my social security number just from knowing that that's my handle.[00:02:25] Cuz I put it plastered everywhere. So that's, that's probably like one thing.[00:02:28] Why Iowa[00:02:28] What's your best pitch for Iowa? Like why is[00:02:30] Iowa awesome? The people Iowa's filled with people that genuinely care. You know, if you're waiting a long line, someone's gonna strike up a conversation, kinda ask how you were Devrel and it's just like a really genuine place.[00:02:40] It was a wonderful place to grow up too at the time, you know, I thought it was like, uh, yeah, I was kind of embarrassed and then be from there. And then I actually kinda looking back it's like, wow, you know, there's good schools, smart people friendly. The, uh, high school that I went to actually Ben Silverman, the CEO and, or I guess former CEO and co-founder of Pinterest and I have the same teachers in high school at different.[00:03:01] The co-founder, or excuse me, the creator of crispr, the gene editing technique, Dr. Jennifer. Doudna. Oh, so that's the patent debate. There's Doudna. Oh, and then there's Fang Zang. Uh, okay. Yeah. Yeah. So Dr. Fang Zang, who I think ultimately won the patent war, uh, but is also from the same high school.[00:03:18] Well, she won the patent, but Jennifer won the[00:03:20] prize.[00:03:21] I think that's probably, I think that's probably, I, I mean I looked into it a little closely. I think it was something like she won the patent for CRISPR first existing and then Feng got it for, uh, first use on humans, which I guess for commercial reasons is the, perhaps more, more interesting one. But I dunno, biolife Sciences, is that my area of expertise?[00:03:38] Yep. Knowing people that came from Iowa that do cool things, certainly is. Yes. So I'll claim it. Um, but yeah, I, I, we, um, at Roble actually, we're, we're bringing the full team to Iowa for the very first time this last week of, of April. And, well, folks from like Scotland all over, that's your company[00:03:54] retreat.[00:03:54] The Iowa,[00:03:55] yeah. Nice. Well, so we do two a year. You know, we've done Miami, we've done. Some of the smaller teams have done like Nashville or Austin or these sorts of places, but we said, you know, let's bring it back to kinda the origin and the roots. Uh, and we'll, we'll bring the full team to, to Des Moines, Iowa.[00:04:13] So, yeah, like I was mentioning, folks from California to Scotland and many places in between are all gonna descend upon Des Moines for a week of, uh, learning and working. So maybe you can check in with those folks. If, what do they, what do they decide and interpret about what's cool. Our state. Well, one thing, are you actually headquartered in Des Moines on paper?[00:04:30] Yes. Yeah.[00:04:30] Isn't that amazing? That's like everyone's Delaware and you're like,[00:04:33] so doing research. Well, we're, we're incorporated in Delaware. Okay. We we're Delaware Sea like, uh, most companies, but our headquarters Yeah. Is in Des Moines. And part of that's a few things. One, it's like, you know, there's this nice Iowa pride.[00:04:43] And second is, uh, Brad and I both grew up in Brad Mc, co-founder and I grew up in, in Des Moines. And we met each other in the year 2000. We looked it up for the, the YC app. So, you know, I think, I guess more of my life I've known Brad than not, uh, which is kind of crazy. Wow. And during yc, we did it during 2020, so it was like the height of Covid.[00:05:01] And so we actually got a house in Des Moines and lived, worked outta there. I mean, more credit to. So I moved back. I was living in DC at the time, I moved back to to Des Moines. Brad was living in Des Moines, but he moved out of a house with his. To move into what we called our hacker house. And then we had one, uh, member of the team as well, Jacob Sorowitz, who moved from Minneapolis down to Des Moines for the summer.[00:05:21] And frankly, uh, code was a great time to, to build a YC company cuz there wasn't much else to do. I mean, it's kinda like wash your groceries and code. It's sort of the, that was the routine[00:05:30] and you can use, uh, computer vision to help with your groceries as well.[00:05:33] That's exactly right. Tell me what to make.[00:05:35] What's in my fridge? What should I cook? Oh, we'll, we'll, we'll cover[00:05:37] that for with the G P T four, uh, stuff. Exactly. Okay. So you have been featured with in a lot of press events. Uh, but maybe we'll just cover the origin story a little bit in a little bit more detail. So we'll, we'll cover robo flow and then we'll cover, we'll go into segment anything.[00:05:52] Origin of Roboflow[00:05:52] But, uh, I think it's important for people to understand. Robo just because it gives people context for what you're about to show us at the end of the podcast. So Magic Sudoku tc, uh, techers Disrupt, and then you go, you join Pioneer, which is Dan Gross's, um, YC before yc.[00:06:07] Yeah. That's how I think about it.[00:06:08] Yeah, that's a good way. That's a good description of it. Yeah. So I mean, robo flow kind of starts as you mentioned with this magic Sudoku thing. So you mentioned one of my prior business was a company called Represent, and you nailed it. I mean, US Congress gets 80 million messages a year. We built tools that auto sorted them.[00:06:23] They didn't use any intelligent auto sorting. And this is somewhat a solved problem in natural language processing of doing topic modeling or grouping together similar sentiment and things like this. And as you mentioned, I'd like, I worked in DC for a bit and been exposed to some of these problems and when I was like, oh, you know, with programming you can build solutions.[00:06:40] And I think the US Congress is, you know, the US kind of United States is a support center, if you will, and the United States is sports center runs on pretty old software, so mm-hmm. We, um, we built a product for that. It was actually at the time when I was working on representing. Brad, his prior business, um, is a social games company called Hatchlings.[00:07:00] Uh, he phoned me in, in 2017, apple had released augmented reality kit AR kit. And Brad and I are both kind of serial hackers, like I like to go to hackathons, don't really understand new technology until he build something with them type folks. And when AR Kit came out, Brad decided he wanted to build a game with it that would solve Sudoku puzzles.[00:07:19] And the idea of the game would be you take your phone, you hover hold it over top of a Sudoku puzzle, it recognizes the state of the board where it is, and then it fills it all in just right before your eyes. And he phoned me and I was like, Brad, this sounds awesome and sounds like you kinda got it figured out.[00:07:34] What, what's, uh, what, what do you think I can do here? It's like, well, the machine learning piece of this is the part that I'm most uncertain about. Uh, doing the digit recognition and, um, filling in some of those results. I was like, well, I mean digit recognition's like the hell of world of, of computer vision.[00:07:48] That's Yeah, yeah, MNIST, right. So I was like, that that part should be the, the easy part. I was like, ah, I'm, he's like, I'm not so super sure, but. You know, the other parts, the mobile ar game mechanics, I've got pretty well figured out. I was like, I, I think you're wrong. I think you're thinking about the hard part is the easy part.[00:08:02] And he is like, no, you're wrong. The hard part is the easy part. And so long story short, we built this thing and released Magic Sudoku and it kind of caught the Internet's attention of what you could do with augmented reality and, and with computer vision. It, you know, made it to the front ofer and some subreddits it run Product Hunt Air app of the year.[00:08:20] And it was really a, a flash in the pan type app, right? Like we were both running separate companies at the time and mostly wanted to toy around with, with new technology. And, um, kind of a fun fact about Magic Sudoku winning product Hunt Air app of the year. That was the same year that I think the model three came out.[00:08:34] And so Elon Musk won a Golden Kitty who we joked that we share an award with, with Elon Musk. Um, the thinking there was that this is gonna set off a, a revolution of if two random engineers can put together something that makes something, makes a game programmable and at interactive, then surely lots of other engineers will.[00:08:53] Do similar of adding programmable layers on top of real world objects around us. Earlier we were joking about objects in your fridge, you know, and automatically generating recipes and these sorts of things. And like I said, that was 2017. Roboflow was actually co-found, or I guess like incorporated in, in 2019.[00:09:09] So we put this out there, nothing really happened. We went back to our day jobs of, of running our respective businesses, I sold Represently and then as you mentioned, kind of did like consulting stuff to figure out the next sort of thing to, to work on, to get exposed to various problems. Brad appointed a new CEO at his prior business and we got together that summer of 2019.[00:09:27] We said, Hey, you know, maybe we should return to that idea that caught a lot of people's attention and shows what's possible. And you know what, what kind of gives, like the future is here. And we have no one's done anything since. No one's done anything. So why is, why are there not these, these apps proliferated everywhere.[00:09:42] Yeah. And so we said, you know, what we'll do is, um, to add this software layer to the real world. Will build, um, kinda like a super app where if you pointed it at anything, it will recognize it and then you can interact with it. We'll release a developer platform and allow people to make their own interfaces, interactivity for whatever object they're looking at.[00:10:04] And we decided to start with board games because one, we had a little bit of history there with, with Sudoku two, there's social by default. So if one person, you know finds it, then they'd probably share it among their friend. Group three. There's actually relatively few barriers to entry aside from like, you know, using someone else's brand name in your, your marketing materials.[00:10:19] Yeah. But other than that, there's no real, uh, inhibitors to getting things going and, and four, it's, it's just fun. It would be something that'd be bring us enjoyment to work on. So we spent that summer making, uh, boggle the four by four word game provable, where, you know, unlike Magic Sudoku, which to be clear, totally ruins the game, uh, you, you have to solve Sudoku puzzle.[00:10:40] You don't need to do anything else. But with Boggle, if you and I are playing, we might not find all of the words that adjacent letter tiles. Unveil. So if we have a, an AI tell us, Hey, here's like the best combination of letters that make high scoring words. And so we, we made boggle and released it and that, and that did okay.[00:10:56] I mean maybe the most interesting story was there's a English as a second language program in, in Canada that picked it up and used it as a part of their curriculum to like build vocabulary, which I thought was kind of inspiring. Example, and what happens just when you put things on the internet and then.[00:11:09] We wanted to build one for chess. So this is where you mentioned we went to 2019. TechCrunch Disrupt TechCrunch. Disrupt holds a Hackathon. And this is actually, you know, when Brad and I say we really became co-founders, because we fly out to San Francisco, we rent a hotel room in the Tenderloin. We, uh, we, we, uh, have one room and there's like one, there's room for one bed, and then we're like, oh, you said there was a cot, you know, on the, on the listing.[00:11:32] So they like give us a little, a little cot, the end of the cot, like bled and over into like the bathroom. So like there I am sleeping on the cot with like my head in the bathroom and the Tenderloin, you know, fortunately we're at a hackathon glamorous. Yeah. There wasn't, there wasn't a ton of sleep to be had.[00:11:46] There is, you know, we're, we're just like making and, and shipping these, these sorts of many[00:11:50] people with this hack. So I've never been to one of these things, but[00:11:52] they're huge. Right? Yeah. The Disrupt Hackathon, um, I don't, I don't know numbers, but few hundreds, you know, classically had been a place where it launched a lot of famous Yeah.[00:12:01] Sort of flare. Yeah. And I think it's, you know, kind of slowed down as a place for true company generation. But for us, Brad and I, who likes just doing hackathons, being, making things in compressed time skills, it seemed like a, a fun thing to do. And like I said, we'd been working on things, but it was only there that like, you're, you're stuck in a maybe not so great glamorous situation together and you're just there to make a, a program and you wanna make it be the best and compete against others.[00:12:26] And so we add support to the app that we were called was called Board Boss. We couldn't call it anything with Boggle cause of IP rights were called. So we called it Board Boss and it supported Boggle and then we were gonna support chess, which, you know, has no IP rights around it. Uh, it's an open game.[00:12:39] And we did so in 48 hours, we built an app that, or added fit capability to. Point your phone at a chess board. It understands the state of the chess board and converts it to um, a known notation. Then it passes that to stock fish, the open source chess engine for making move recommendations and it makes move recommendations to, to players.[00:13:00] So you could either play against like an ammunition to AI or improve your own game. We learn that one of the key ways users like to use this was just to record their games. Cuz it's almost like reviewing game film of what you should have done differently. Game. Yeah, yeah, exactly. And I guess the highlight of, uh, of chess Boss was, you know, we get to the first round of judging, we get to the second round of judging.[00:13:16] And during the second round of judging, that's when like, TechCrunch kind of brings around like some like celebs and stuff. They'll come by. Evan Spiegel drops by Ooh. Oh, and he uh, he comes up to our, our, our booth and um, he's like, oh, so what does, what does this all do? And you know, he takes an interest in it cuz the underpinnings of, of AR interacting with the.[00:13:33] And, uh, he is kinda like, you know, I could use this to like cheat on chess with my friends. And we're like, well, you know, that wasn't exactly the, the thesis of why we made it, but glad that, uh, at least you think it's kind of neat. Um, wait, but he already started Snapchat by then? Oh, yeah. Oh yeah. This, this is 2019, I think.[00:13:49] Oh, okay, okay. Yeah, he was kind of just checking out things that were new and, and judging didn't end up winning any, um, awards within Disrupt, but I think what we won was actually. Maybe more important maybe like the, the quote, like the co-founders medal along the way. Yep. The friends we made along the way there we go to, to play to the meme.[00:14:06] I would've preferred to win, to be clear. Yes. You played a win. So you did win, uh,[00:14:11] $15,000 from some Des Moines, uh, con[00:14:14] contest. Yeah. Yeah. The, uh, that was nice. Yeah. Slightly after that we did, we did win. Um, some, some grants and some other things for some of the work that we've been doing. John Papa John supporting the, uh, the local tech scene.[00:14:24] Yeah. Well, so there's not the one you're thinking of. Okay. Uh, there's a guy whose name is Papa John, like that's his, that's his, that's his last name. His first name is John. So it's not the Papa John's you're thinking of that has some problematic undertones. It's like this guy who's totally different. I feel bad for him.[00:14:38] His press must just be like, oh, uh, all over the place. But yeah, he's this figure in the Iowa entrepreneurial scene who, um, he actually was like doing SPACs before they were cool and these sorts of things, but yeah, he funds like grants that encourage entrepreneurship in the state. And since we'd done YC and in the state, we were eligible for some of the awards that they were providing.[00:14:56] But yeah, it was disrupt that we realized, you know, um, the tools that we made, you know, it took us better part of a summer to add Boggle support and it took us 48 hours to add chest support. So adding the ability for programmable interfaces for any object, we built a lot of those internal tools and our apps were kind of doing like the very famous shark fin where like it picks up really fast, then it kind of like slowly peters off.[00:15:20] Mm-hmm. And so we're like, okay, if we're getting these like shark fin graphs, we gotta try something different. Um, there's something different. I remember like the week before Thanksgiving 2019 sitting down and we wrote this Readme for, actually it's still the Readme at the base repo of Robo Flow today has spent relatively unedited of the manifesto.[00:15:36] Like, we're gonna build tools that enable people to make the world programmable. And there's like six phases and, you know, there's still, uh, many, many, many phases to go into what we wrote even at that time to, to present. But it's largely been, um, right in line with what we thought we would, we would do, which is give engineers the tools to add software to real world objects, which is largely predicated on computer vision. So finding the right images, getting the right sorts of video frames, maybe annotating them, uh, finding the right sort of models to use to do this, monitoring the performance, all these sorts of things. And that from, I mean, we released that in early 2020, and it's kind of, that's what's really started to click.[00:16:12] Why Computer Vision[00:16:12] Awesome. I think we should just kind[00:16:13] of[00:16:14] go right into where you are today and like the, the products that you offer, just just to give people an overview and then we can go into the, the SAM stuff. So what is the clear, concise elevator pitch? I think you mentioned a bunch of things like make the world programmable so you don't ha like computer vision is a means to an end.[00:16:30] Like there's, there's something beyond that. Yeah.[00:16:32] I mean, the, the big picture mission for the business and the company and what we're working on is, is making the world programmable, making it read and write and interactive, kind of more entertaining, more e. More fun and computer vision is the technology by which we can achieve that pretty quickly.[00:16:48] So like the one liner for the, the product in, in the company is providing engineers with the tools for data and models to build programmable interfaces. Um, and that can be workflows, that could be the, uh, data processing, it could be the actual model training. But yeah, Rob helps you use production ready computer vision workflows fast.[00:17:10] And I like that.[00:17:11] In part of your other pitch that I've heard, uh, is that you basically scale from the very smallest scales to the very largest scales, right? Like the sort of microbiology use case all the way to[00:17:20] astronomy. Yeah. Yeah. The, the joke that I like to make is like anything, um, underneath a microscope and, and through a telescope and everything in between needs to, needs to be seen.[00:17:27] I mean, we have people that run models in outer space, uh, underwater remote places under supervision and, and known places. The crazy thing is that like, All parts of, of not just the world, but the universe need to be observed and understood and acted upon. So vision is gonna be, I dunno, I feel like we're in the very, very, very beginnings of all the ways we're gonna see it.[00:17:50] Computer Vision Use Cases[00:17:50] Awesome. Let's go into a lo a few like top use cases, cuz I think that really helps to like highlight the big names that you've, big logos that you've already got. I've got Walmart and Cardinal Health, but I don't, I don't know if you wanna pull out any other names, like, just to illustrate, because the reason by the way, the reason I think that a lot of developers don't get into computer vision is because they think they don't need it.[00:18:11] Um, or they think like, oh, like when I do robotics, I'll do it. But I think if, if you see like the breadth of use cases, then you get a little bit more inspiration as to like, oh, I can use[00:18:19] CVS lfa. Yeah. It's kind of like, um, you know, by giving, by making it be so straightforward to use vision, it becomes almost like a given that it's a set of features that you could power on top of it.[00:18:32] And like you mentioned, there's, yeah, there's Fortune One there over half the Fortune 100. I've used the, the tools that Robel provides just as much as 250,000 developers. And so over a quarter million engineers finding and developing and creating various apps, and I mean, those apps are, are, are far and wide.[00:18:49] Just as you mentioned. I mean everything from say, like, one I like to talk about was like sushi detection of like finding the like right sorts of fish and ingredients that are in a given piece of, of sushi that you're looking at to say like roof estimation of like finding. If there's like, uh, hail damage on, on a given roof, of course, self-driving cars and understanding the scenes around us is sort of the, you know, very early computer vision everywhere.[00:19:13] Use case hardhat detection, like finding out if like a given workplace is, is, is safe, uh, disseminate, have the right p p p on or p p e on, are there the right distance from various machines? A huge place that vision has been used is environmental monitoring. Uh, what's the count of species? Can we verify that the environment's not changing in unexpected ways or like river banks are become, uh, becoming recessed in ways that we anticipate from satellite imagery, plant phenotyping.[00:19:37] I mean, people have used these apps for like understanding their plants and identifying them. And that dataset that's actually largely open, which is what's given a proliferation to the iNaturalist, is, is that whole, uh, hub of, of products. Lots of, um, people that do manufacturing. So, like Rivian for example, is a Rubal customer, and you know, they're trying to scale from 1000 cars to 25,000 cars to a hundred thousand cars in very short order.[00:20:00] And that relies on having the. Ability to visually ensure that every part that they're making is produced correctly and right in time. Medical use cases. You know, there's actually, this morning I was emailing with a user who's accelerating early cancer detection through breaking apart various parts of cells and doing counts of those cells.[00:20:23] And actually a lot of wet lab work that folks that are doing their PhDs or have done their PhDs are deeply familiar with that is often required to do very manually of, of counting, uh, micro plasms or, or things like this. There's. All sorts of, um, like traffic counting and smart cities use cases of understanding curb utilization to which sort of vehicles are, are present.[00:20:44] Uh, ooh. That can be[00:20:46] really good for city planning actually.[00:20:47] Yeah. I mean, one of our customers does exactly this. They, they measure and do they call it like smart curb utilization, where uhhuh, they wanna basically make a curb be almost like a dynamic space where like during these amounts of time, it's zoned for this during these amounts of times.[00:20:59] It's zoned for this based on the flows and e ebbs and flows of traffic throughout the day. So yeah, I mean the, the, the truth is that like, you're right, it's like a developer might be like, oh, how would I use vision? And then all of a sudden it's like, oh man, all these things are at my fingertips. Like I can just, everything you can see.[00:21:13] Yeah. Right. I can just, I can just add functionality for my app to understand and ingest the way, like, and usually the way that someone gets like almost nerd sniped into this is like, they have like a home automation project, so it's like send Yeah. Give us a few. Yeah. So send me a text when, um, a package shows up so I can like prevent package theft so I can like go down and grab it right away or.[00:21:29] We had a, uh, this one's pretty, pretty niche, but it's pretty funny. There was this guy who, during the pandemic wa, wanted to make sure his cat had like the proper, uh, workout. And so I've shared the story where he basically decided that. He'd make a cat workout machine with computer vision, you might be alone.[00:21:43] You're like, what does that look like? Well, what he decided was he would take a robotic arm strap, a laser pointer to it, and then train a machine to recognize his cat and his cat only, and point the laser pointer consistently 10 feet away from the cat. There's actually a video of you if you type an YouTube cat laser turret, you'll find Dave's video.[00:22:01] Uh, and hopefully Dave's cat has, has lost the weight that it needs to, cuz that's just the, that's an intense workout I have to say. But yeah, so like, that's like a, um, you know, these, uh, home automation projects are pretty common places for people to get into smart bird feeders. I've seen people that like are, are logging and understanding what sort of birds are, uh, in their background.[00:22:18] There's a member of our team that was working on actually this as, as a whole company and has open sourced a lot of the data for doing bird species identification. And now there's, I think there's even a company that's, uh, founded to create like a smart bird feeder, like captures photos and tells you which ones you've attracted to your yard.[00:22:32] I met that. Do, you know, get around the, uh, car sharing company that heard it? Them never used them. They did a SPAC last year and they had raised at like, They're unicorn. They raised at like 1.2 billion, I think in the, the prior round and inspected a similar price. I met the CTO of, of Getaround because he was, uh, using Rob Flow to hack into his Tesla cameras to identify other vehicles that are like often nearby him.[00:22:56] So he's basically building his own custom license plate recognition, and he just wanted like, keep, like, keep tabs of like, when he drives by his friends or when he sees like regular sorts of folks. And so he was doing like automated license plate recognition by tapping into his, uh, camera feeds. And by the way, Elliot's like one of the like OG hackers, he was, I think one of the very first people to like, um, she break iPhones and, and these sorts of things.[00:23:14] Mm-hmm. So yeah, the project that I want, uh, that I'm gonna work on right now for my new place in San Francisco is. There's two doors. There's like a gate and then the other door. And sometimes we like forget to close, close the gate. So like, basically if it sees that the gate is open, it'll like send us all a text or something like this to make sure that the gate is, is closed at the front of our house.[00:23:32] That's[00:23:32] really cool. And I'll, I'll call out one thing that readers and listeners can, uh, read out on, on your history. One of your most popular initial, um, viral blog post was about, um, autonomous vehicle data sets and how, uh, the one that Udacity was using was missing like one third of humans. And, uh, it's not, it's pretty problematic for cars to miss humans.[00:23:53] Yeah, yeah, actually, so yeah, the Udacity self-driving car data set, which look to their credit, it was just meant to be used for, for academic use. Um, and like as a part of courses on, on Udacity, right? Yeah. But the, the team that released it, kind of hastily labeled and let it go out there to just start to use and train some models.[00:24:11] I think that likely some, some, uh, maybe commercial use cases maybe may have come and, and used, uh, the dataset, who's to say? But Brad and I discovered this dataset. And when we were working on dataset improvement tools at Rob Flow, we ran through our tools and identified some like pretty, as you mentioned, key issues.[00:24:26] Like for example, a lot of strollers weren't labeled and I hope our self-driving cars do those, these sorts of things. And so we relabeled the whole dataset by hand. I have this very fond memory is February, 2020. Brad and I are in Taiwan. So like Covid is actually just, just getting going. And the reason we were there is we were like, Hey, we can work on this from anywhere for a little bit.[00:24:44] And so we spent like a, uh, let's go closer to Covid. Well, you know, I like to say we uh, we got early indicators of, uh, how bad it was gonna be. I bought a bunch of like N 90 fives before going o I remember going to the, the like buying a bunch of N 95 s and getting this craziest look like this like crazy tin hat guy.[00:25:04] Wow. What is he doing? And then here's how you knew. I, I also got got by how bad it was gonna be. I left all of them in Taiwan cuz it's like, oh, you all need these. We'll be fine over in the us. And then come to find out, of course that Taiwan was a lot better in terms of, um, I think, yeah. Safety. But anyway, we were in Taiwan because we had planned this trip and you know, at the time we weren't super sure about the, uh, covid, these sorts of things.[00:25:22] We always canceled it. We didn't, but I have this, this very specific time. Brad and I were riding on the train from Clay back to Taipei. It's like a four hour ride. And you mentioned Pioneer earlier, we were competing in Pioneer, which is almost like a gamified to-do list. Mm-hmm. Every week you say what you're gonna do and then other people evaluate.[00:25:37] Did you actually do the things you said you were going to do? One of the things we said we were gonna do was like this, I think re-release of this data set. And so it's like late, we'd had a whole week, like, you know, weekend behind us and, uh, we're on this train and it was very unpleasant situation, but we relabeled this, this data set, and one sitting got it submitted before like the Sunday, Sunday countdown clock starts voting for, for.[00:25:57] And, um, once that data got out back out there, just as you mentioned, it kind of picked up and Venture beat, um, noticed and wrote some stories about it. And we really rereleased of course, the data set that we did our best job of labeling. And now if anyone's listening, they can probably go out and like find some errors that we surely still have and maybe call us out and, you know, put us, put us on blast.[00:26:15] The Economics of Annotation (Segmentation)[00:26:15] But,[00:26:16] um, well, well the reason I like this story is because it, it draws attention to the idea that annotation is difficult and basically anyone looking to use computer vision in their business who may not have an off-the-shelf data set is going to have to get involved in annotation. And I don't know what it costs.[00:26:34] And that's probably one of the biggest hurdles for me to estimate how big a task this is. Right? So my question at a higher level is tell the customers, how do you tell customers to estimate the economics of annotation? Like how many images do, do we need? How much, how long is it gonna take? That, that kinda stuff.[00:26:50] How much money and then what are the nuances to doing it well, right? Like, cuz obviously Udacity had a poor quality job, you guys had proved it, and there's errors every everywhere. Like where do[00:26:59] these things go wrong? The really good news about annotation in general is that like annotation of course is a means to an end to have a model be able to recognize a thing.[00:27:08] Increasingly there's models that are coming out that can recognize things zero shot without any annotation, which we're gonna talk about. Yeah. Which, we'll, we'll talk more about that in a moment. But in general, the good news is that like the trend is that annotation is gonna become decreasingly a blocker to starting to use computer vision in meaningful ways.[00:27:24] Now that said, just as you mentioned, there's a lot of places where you still need to do. Annotation. I mean, even with these zero shot models, they might have of blind spots, or maybe you're a business, as you mentioned, that you know, it's proprietary data. Like only Rivian knows what a rivian is supposed to look like, right?[00:27:39] Uh, at the time of, at the time of it being produced, like underneath the hood and, and all these sorts of things. And so, yeah, that's gonna necessarily require annotation. So your question of how long is it gonna take, how do you estimate these sorts of things, it really comes down to the complexity of the problem that you're solving and the amount of variance in the scene.[00:27:57] So let's give some contextual examples. If you're trying to recognize, we'll say a scratch on one specific part and you have very strong lighting. You might need fewer images because you control the lighting, you know the exact part and maybe you're lucky in the scratch. Happens more often than not in similar parts or similar, uh, portions of the given part.[00:28:17] So in that context, you, you, the function of variance, the variance is, is, is lower. So the number of images you need is also lower to start getting up to work. Now the orders of magnitude we're talking about is that like you can have an initial like working model from like 30 to 50 images. Yeah. In this context, which is shockingly low.[00:28:32] Like I feel like there's kind of an open secret in computer vision now, the general heuristic that often. Users, is that like, you know, maybe 200 images per class is when you start to have a model that you can rely[00:28:45] on? Rely meaning like 90, 99, 90, 90%, um,[00:28:50] uh, like what's 85 plus 85? Okay. Um, that's good. Again, these are very, very finger in the wind estimates cuz the variance we're talking about.[00:28:59] But the real question is like, at what point, like the framing is not like at what point do it get to 99, right? The framing is at what point can I use this thing to be better than the alternative, which is humans, which maybe humans or maybe like this problem wasn't possible at all. And so usually the question isn't like, how do I get to 99?[00:29:15] A hundred percent? It's how do I ensure that like the value I am able to get from putting this thing in production is greater than the alternative? In fact, even if you have a model that's less accurate than humans, there might be some circumstances where you can tolerate, uh, a greater amount of inaccuracy.[00:29:32] And if you look at the accuracy relative to the cost, Using a model is extremely cheap. Using a human for the same sort of task can be very expensive. Now, in terms of the actual accuracy of of what you get, there's probably some point at which the cost, but relative accuracy exceeds of a model, exceeds the high cost and hopefully high accuracy of, of a human comparable, like for example, there's like cameras that will track soccer balls or track events happening during sporting matches.[00:30:02] And you can go through and you know, we actually have users that work in sports analytics. You can go through and have a human. Hours and hours of footage. Cuz not just watching their team, they're watching every other team, they're watching scouting teams, they're watching junior teams, they're watching competitors.[00:30:15] And you could have them like, you know, track and follow every single time the ball goes within blank region of the field or every time blank player goes into, uh, this portion of the field. And you could have, you know, exact, like a hundred percent accuracy if that person, maybe, maybe not a hundred, a human may be like 95, 90 7% accuracy of every single time the ball is in this region or this player is on the field.[00:30:36] Truthfully, maybe if you're scouting analytics, you actually don't need 97% accuracy of knowing that that player is on the field. And in fact, if you can just have a model run at a 1000th, a 10000th of the cost and goes through and finds all the times that Messi was present on the field mm-hmm. That the ball was in this region of the.[00:30:54] Then even if that model is slightly less accurate, the cost is just so orders of magnitude different. And the stakes like the stakes of this problem, of knowing like the total number of minutes that Messi played will say are such that we have a higher air tolerance, that it's a no-brainer to start to use Yeah, a computer vision model in this context.[00:31:12] So not every problem requires equivalent or greater human performance. Even when it does, you'd be surprised at how fast models get there. And in the times when you, uh, really look at a problem, the question is, how much accuracy do I need to start to get value from this? This thing, like the package example is a great one, right?[00:31:27] Like I could in theory set up a camera that's constantly watching in front of my porch and I could watch the camera whenever I have a package and then go down. But of course, I'm not gonna do that. I value my time to do other sorts of things instead. And so like there, there's this net new capability of, oh, great, I can have an always on thing that tells me when a package shows up, even if you know the, the thing that's gonna text me.[00:31:46] When a package shows up, let's say a flat pack shows up instead of a box and it doesn't know what a flat pack likes, looks like initially. Doesn't matter. It doesn't matter because I didn't have this capability at all before. And I think that's the true case where a lot of computer vision problems exist is like it.[00:32:00] It's like you didn't even have this capability, this superpower before at all, let alone assigning a given human to do the task. And that's where we see like this explosion of, of value.[00:32:10] Awesome. Awesome. That was a really good overview. I want to leave time for the others, but I, I really want to dive into a couple more things with regards to Robo Flow.[00:32:17] Computer Vision Annotation Formats[00:32:17] So one is, apparently your original pitch for Robo Flow was with regards to conversion tools for computer vision data sets. And I'm sure as, as a result of your job, you have a lot of rants. I've been digging for rants basically on like the best or the worst annotation formats. What do we know? Cause most of us, oh my gosh, we only know, like, you know, I like,[00:32:38] okay, so when we talk about computer vision annotation formats, what we're talking about is if you have an image and you, you picture a boing box around my face on that image.[00:32:46] Yeah. How do you describe where that Monty box is? X, Y, Z X Y coordinates. Okay. X, y coordinates. How, what do you mean from the top lefts.[00:32:52] Okay. You, you, you, you take X and Y and then, and then the. The length and, and the width of the, the[00:32:58] box. Okay. So you got like a top left coordinate and like the bottom right coordinate or like the, the center of the bottom.[00:33:02] Yeah. Yeah. Top, left, bottom right. Yeah. That's one type of format. Okay. But then, um, I come along and I'm like, you know what? I want to do a different format where I wanna just put the center of the box, right. And give the length and width. Right. And by the way, we didn't even talk about what X and Y we're talking about.[00:33:14] Is X a pixel count? Is a relative pixel count? Is it an absolute pixel count? So the point is, the number of ways to describe where a box lives in a freaking image is endless, uh, seemingly and. Everyone decided to kind of create their own different ways of describing the coordinates and positions of where in this context of bounding Box is present.[00:33:39] Uh, so there's some formats, for example, that like use re, so for the x and y, like Y is, uh, like the left, most part of the image is zero. And the right most part of the image is one. So the, the coordinate is like anywhere from zero to one. So 0.6 is, you know, 60% of your way right up the image to describe the coordinate.[00:33:53] I guess that was, that was X instead of Y. But the point is there, of the zero to one is the way that we determined where that was in the position, or we're gonna do an absolute pixel position anyway. We got sick, we got sick of all these different annotation formats. So why do you even have to convert between formats?[00:34:07] Is is another part of this, this story. So different training frameworks, like if you're using TensorFlow, you need like TF Records. If you're using PyTorch, it's probably gonna be, well it depends on like what model you're using, but someone might use Coco JSON with PyTorch. Someone else might use like a, just a YAML file and a text file.[00:34:21] And to describe the cor it's point is everyone that creates a model. Or creates a dataset rather, has created different ways of describing where and how a bounding box is present in the image. And we got sick of all these different formats and doing these in writing all these different converter scripts.[00:34:39] And so we made a tool that just converts from one script, one type of format to another. And the, the key thing is that like if you get that converter script wrong, your model doesn't not work. It just fails silently. Yeah. Because the bounding boxes are now all in the wrong places. And so you need a way to visualize and be sure that your converter script, blah, blah blah.[00:34:54] So that was the very first tool we released of robo. It was just a converter script, you know, like these, like these PDF to word converters that you find. It was basically that for computer vision, like dead simple, really annoying thing. And we put it out there and people found some, some value in, in that.[00:35:08] And you know, to this day that's still like a surprisingly painful[00:35:11] problem. Um, yeah, so you and I met at the Dall-E Hackathon at OpenAI, and we were, I was trying to implement this like face masking thing, and I immediately ran into that problem because, um, you know, the, the parameters that Dall-E expected were different from the one that I got from my face, uh, facial detection thing.[00:35:28] One day it'll go away, but that day is not today. Uh, the worst format that we work with is, is. The mart form, it just makes no sense. And it's like, I think, I think it's a one off annotation format that this university in China started to use to describe where annotations exist in a book mart. I, I don't know, I dunno why that So best[00:35:45] would be TF record or some something similar.[00:35:48] Yeah, I think like, here's your chance to like tell everybody to use one one standard and like, let's, let's, can[00:35:53] I just tell them to use, we have a package that does this for you. I'm just gonna tell you to use the row full package that converts them all, uh, for you. So you don't have to think about this. I mean, Coco JSON is pretty good.[00:36:04] It's like one of the larger industry norms and you know, it's in JS O compared to like V xml, which is an XML format and Coco json is pretty descriptive, but you know, it has, has its own sort of drawbacks and flaws and has random like, attribute, I dunno. Um, yeah, I think the best way to handle this problem is to not have to think about it, which is what we did.[00:36:21] We just created a, uh, library that, that converts and uses things. Uh, for us. We've double checked the heck out of it. There's been hundreds of thousands of people that have used the library and battle tested all these different formats to find those silent errors. So I feel pretty good about no longer having to have a favorite format and instead just rely on.[00:36:38] Dot load in the format that I need. Great[00:36:41] Intro to Computer Vision Segmentation[00:36:41] service to the community. Yeah. Let's go into segmentation because is at the top of everyone's minds, but before we get into segment, anything, I feel like we need a little bit of context on the state-of-the-art prior to Sam, which seems to be YOLO and uh, you are the leading expert as far as I know.[00:36:56] Yeah.[00:36:57] Computer vision, there's various task types. There's classification problems where we just like assign tags to images, like, you know, maybe safe work, not safe work, sort of tagging sort of stuff. Or we have object detection, which are the boing boxes that you see and all the formats I was mentioning in ranting about there's instant segmentation, which is the polygon shapes and produces really, really good looking demos.[00:37:19] So a lot of people like instant segmentation.[00:37:21] This would be like counting pills when you point 'em out on the, on the table. Yeah. So, or[00:37:25] soccer players on the field. So interestingly, um, counting you could do with bounding boxes. Okay. Cause you could just say, you know, a box around a person. Well, I could count, you know, 12 players on the field.[00:37:35] Masks are most useful. Polygons are most useful if you need very precise area measurements. So you have an aerial photo of a home and you want to know, and the home's not a perfect box, and you want to know the rough square footage of that home. Well, if you know the distance between like the drone and, and the ground.[00:37:53] And you have the precise polygon shape of the home, then you can calculate how big that home is from aerial photos. And then insurers can, you know, provide say accurate estimates and that's maybe why this is useful. So polygons and, and instant segmentation are, are those types of tasks? There's a key point detection task and key point is, you know, if you've seen those demos of like all the joints on like a hand kind of, kind of outlined, there's visual question answering tasks, visual q and a.[00:38:21] And that's like, you know, some of the stuff that multi-modality is absolutely crushing for, you know, here's an image, tell me what food is in this image. And then you can pass that and you can make a recipe out of it. But like, um, yeah, the visual question in answering task type is where multi-modality is gonna have and is already having an enormous impact.[00:38:40] So that's not a comprehensive survey, very problem type, but it's enough to, to go into why SAM is significant. So these various task types, you know, which model to use for which given circumstance. Most things is highly dependent on what you're ultimately aiming to do. Like if you need to run a model on the edge, you're gonna need a smaller model, cuz it is gonna run on edge, compute and process in, in, in real time.[00:39:01] If you're gonna run a model on the cloud, then of course you, uh, generally have more compute at your disposal Considerations like this now, uh,[00:39:08] YOLO[00:39:08] just to pause. Yeah. Do you have to explain YOLO first before you go to Sam, or[00:39:11] Yeah, yeah, sure. So, yeah. Yeah, we should. So object detection world. So for a while I talked about various different task types and you can kinda think about a slide scale of like classification, then obvious detection.[00:39:20] And on the right, at most point you have like segmentation tasks. Object detection. The bounding boxes is especially useful for a wide, like it's, it's surprisingly versatile. Whereas like classification is kind of brittle. Like you only have a tag for the whole image. Well, that doesn't, you can't count things with tags.[00:39:35] And on the other hand, like the mask side of things, like drawing masks is painstaking. And so like labeling is just a bit more difficult. Plus like the processing to produce masks requires more compute. And so usually a lot of folks kind of landed for a long time on obvious detection being a really happy medium of affording you with rich capabilities because you can do things like count, track, measure.[00:39:56] In some CAGR context with bounding boxes, you can see how many things are present. You can actually get a sense of how fast something's moving by tracking the object or bounding box across multiple frames and comparing the timestamp of where it was across those frames. So obviously detection is a very common task type that solves lots of things that you want do with a given model.[00:40:15] In obviously detection. There's been various model frameworks over time. So kind of really early on there's like R-CNN uh, then there's faster rc n n and these sorts of family models, which are based on like resnet kind of architectures. And then a big thing happens, and that is single shot detectors. So faster, rc n n despite its name is, is very slow cuz it takes two passes on the image.[00:40:37] Uh, the first pass is, it finds par pixels in the image that are most interesting to, uh, create a bounding box candidate out of. And then it passes that to a, a classifier that then does classification of the bounding box of interest. Right. Yeah. You can see, you can see why that would be slow. Yeah. Cause you have to do two passes.[00:40:53] You know, kind of actually led by, uh, like mobile net was I think the first large, uh, single shot detector. And as its name implies, it was meant to be run on edge devices and mobile devices and Google released mobile net. So it's a popular implementation that you find in TensorFlow. And what single shot detectors did is they said, Hey, instead of looking at the image twice, what if we just kind of have a, a backbone that finds candidate bounding boxes?[00:41:19] And then we, we set loss functions for objectness. We set loss function. That's a real thing. We set loss functions for objectness, like how much obj, how object do this part of the images. We send a loss function for classification, and then we run the image through the model on a single pass. And that saves lots of compute time and you know, it's not necessarily as accurate, but if you have lesser compute, it can be extremely useful.[00:41:42] And then the advances in both modeling techniques in compute and data quality, single shot detectors, SSDs has become, uh, really, really popular. One of the biggest SSDs that has become really popular is the YOLO family models, as you described. And so YOLO stands for you only look once. Yeah, right, of course.[00:42:02] Uh, Drake's, uh, other album, um, so Joseph Redman introduces YOLO at the University of Washington. And Joseph Redman is, uh, kind of a, a fun guy. So for listeners, for an Easter egg, I'm gonna tell you to Google Joseph Redman resume, and you'll find, you'll find My Little Pony. That's all I'll say. And so he introduces the very first YOLO architecture, which is a single shot detector, and he also does it in a framework called Darknet, which is like this, this own framework that compiles the Cs, frankly, kind of tough to work with, but allows you to benefit from the speedups that advance when you operate in a low level language like.[00:42:36] And then he releases, well, what colloquially is known as YOLO V two, but a paper's called YOLO 9,000 cuz Joseph Redmond thought it'd be funny to have something over 9,000. So get a sense for, yeah, some fun. And then he releases, uh, YOLO V three and YOLO V three is kind of like where things really start to click because it goes from being an SSD that's very limited to competitive and, and, and superior to actually mobile That and some of these other single shot detectors, which is awesome because you have this sort of solo, I mean, him and and his advisor, Ali, at University of Washington have these, uh, models that are becoming really, really powerful and capable and competitive with these large research organizations.[00:43:09] Joseph Edmond leaves Computer Vision Research, but there had been Alexia ab, one of the maintainers of Darknet released Yola VI four. And another, uh, researcher, Glenn Yer, uh, jocker had been working on YOLO V three, but in a PyTorch implementation, cuz remember YOLO is in a dark implementation. And so then, you know, YOLO V three and then Glenn continues to make additional improvements to YOLO V three and pretty soon his improvements on Yolov theory, he's like, oh, this is kind of its own things.[00:43:36] Then he releases YOLO V five[00:43:38] with some naming[00:43:39] controversy that we don't have Big naming controversy. The, the too long didn't read on the naming controversy is because Glen was not originally involved with Darknet. How is he allowed to use the YOLO moniker? Roe got in a lot of trouble cuz we wrote a bunch of content about YOLO V five and people were like, ah, why are you naming it that we're not?[00:43:55] Um, but you know,[00:43:56] cool. But anyway, so state-of-the-art goes to v8. Is what I gather.[00:44:00] Yeah, yeah. So yeah. Yeah. You're, you're just like, okay, I got V five. I'll skip to the end. Uh, unless, unless there's something, I mean, I don't want, well, so I mean, there's some interesting things. Um, in the yolo, there's like, there's like a bunch of YOLO variants.[00:44:10] So YOLOs become this, like this, this catchall for various single shot, yeah. For various single shot, basically like runs on the edge, it's quick detection framework. And so there's, um, like YOLO R, there's YOLO S, which is a transformer based, uh, yolo, yet look like you only look at one sequence is what s stands were.[00:44:27] Um, the pp yo, which, uh, is PAT Paddle implementation, which is by, which Chinese Google is, is their implementation of, of TensorFlow, if you will. So basically YOLO has like all these variants. And now, um, yo vii, which is Glen has been working on, is now I think kind of like, uh, one of the choice models to use for single shot detection.[00:44:44] World Knowledge of Foundation Models[00:44:44] Well, I think a lot of those models, you know, Asking the first principal's question, like let's say you wanna find like a bus detector. Do you need to like go find a bunch of photos of buses or maybe like a chair detector? Do you need to go find a bunch of photos of chairs? It's like, oh no. You know, actually those images are present not only in the cocoa data set, but those are objects that exist like kind of broadly on the internet.[00:45:02] And so computer visions kind of been like us included, have been like really pushing for and encouraging models that already possess a lot of context about the world. And so, you know, if GB T's idea and i's idea OpenAI was okay, models can only understand things that are in their corpus. What if we just make their corpus the size of everything on the internet?[00:45:20] The same thing that happened in imagery, what's happening now? And that's kinda what Sam represents, which is kind of a new evolution of, earlier on we were talking about the cost of annotation and I said, well, good news. Annotations then become decreasingly necessary to start to get to value. Now you gotta think about it more, kind of like, you'll probably need to do some annotation because you might want to find a custom object, or Sam might not be perfect, but what's about to happen is a big opportunity where you want the benefits of a yolo, right?[00:45:47] Where it can run really fast, it can run on the edge, it's very cheap. But you want the knowledge of a large foundation model that already knows everything about buses and knows everything about shoes, knows everything about real, if the name is true, anything segment, anything model. And so there's gonna be this novel opportunity to take what these large models know, and I guess it's kind of like a form of distilling, like distill them down into smaller architectures that you can use in versatile ways to run in real time to run on the edge.[00:46:13] And that's now happening. And what we're seeing in actually kind of like pulling that, that future forward with, with, with Robo Flow.[00:46:21] Segment Anything Model[00:46:21] So we could talk a bit about, um, about SAM and what it represents maybe into, in relation to like these, these YOLO models. So Sam is Facebook segment Everything Model. It came out last week, um, the first week of April.[00:46:34] It has 24,000 GitHub stars at the time of, of this recording within its first week. And why, what does it do? Segment? Everything is a zero shot segmentation model. And as we're describing, creating masks is a very arduous task. Creating masks of objects that are not already represented means you have to go label a bunch of masks and then train a model and then hope that it finds those masks in new images.[00:47:00] And the promise of Segment anything is that in fact you just pass at any image and it finds all of the masks of relevant things that you might be curious about finding in a given image. And it works remarkably. Segment anything in credit to Facebook and the fair Facebook research team, they not only released the model permissive license to move things forward, they released the full data set, all 11 million images and 1.1 billion segmentation masks and three model sizes.[00:47:29] The largest ones like 2.5 gigabytes, which is not enormous. Medium ones like 1.2 and the smallest one is like 400, 3 75 megabytes. And for context,[00:47:38] for, for people listening, that's six times more than the previous alternative, which, which is apparently open images, uh, in terms of number images, and then 400 times more masks than open[00:47:47] images as well.[00:47:48] Exactly, yeah. So huge, huge order magnitude gain in terms of dataset accessibility plus like the model and how it works. And so the question becomes, okay, so like segment. What, what do I do with this? Like, what does it allow me to do? And it didn't Rob float well. Yeah, you should. Yeah. Um, it's already there.[00:48:04] You um, that part's done. Uh, but the thing that you can do with segment anything is you can almost, like, I almost think about like this, kinda like this model arbitrage where you can basically like distill down a giant model. So let's say like, like let's return to the package example. Okay. The package problem of, I wanna get a text when a package appears on my front porch before segment anything.[00:48:25] The way that I would go solve this problem is I would go collect some images of packages on my porch and I would label them, uh, with bounding boxes or maybe masks in that part. As you mentioned, it can be a long process and I would train a model. And that model it actually probably worked pretty well cause it's purpose-built.[00:48:44] The camera position, my porch, the packages I'm receiving. But that's gonna take some time, like everything that I just mentioned the

What can a banker who built one of the biggest financial empires in the world and was a major philanthropist teach us about strategic leadership? A lot, in fact. I talk to Dan Gross, the author of a biography on Edmond J. Safra called ‘A banker's life'. It's a fascinating counter to many of the practices we hear and see – for better or worse – in modern day life. Safra was incredibly ambitious, looking to build wealth, nurture his community, and build bridges across the world. We hear about his approach to:Entrepreneurship, starting at a very young age.Developing relationships across different cultures in three continents.Putting purpose at the centre of his business and life.Working out the customers he wanted to serve, and the risks he wanted to take (or not).Work-life integration.Succession planning.Safra treated his business as a family. And led a dynamic, colourful life, professionally and personally. About Dan:Dan Gross is one of the most widely-read writers on finance, economics, and business history. Over the past three decades, he has reported from more than 30 countries, covering everything from the dotcom boom and the rise of China to the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. He worked as a reporter at The New Republic and Bloomberg News, wrote the “Economic View” column in The New York Times, and served as Slate's “Moneybox” columnist. Gross is a bestselling author of eight books, including Forbes Greatest Business Stories of All Time; Generations of Corning; Dumb Money: How America's Greatest Financial Minds Bankrupted the Nation; and Better, Stronger, Faster: The Myth of American Decline and the Rise of a New Economy.His great-grandparents immigrated to the United States from Aleppo and Damascus.Resources:Profile https://www.linkedin.com/in/daniel-gross-ba46a02/‘A banker's journey' book: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Bankers-Journey-Edmond-Global-Financial/dp/1635767857My resources:Sign up to my Strategic Leader newsletter (http://bit.ly/36WRpri) for stimuli, ideas, guidance and tips on how to lead your team, organisation or self more effectively, delivered straight to your inbox:  If you're not subscribed already do subscribe to my youtube channel (http://bit.ly/3cFGk1k) where you can watch the conversation.Take the Extraordinary Essentials test (https://bit.ly/3EhSKY5) to identify your strengths and development areas.For more details about me:★Services (https://bit.ly/373jctk) to CEOs, entrepreneurs and professionals.★About me (https://bit.ly/3LFsfiO) - my background, experience and philosophy.★Examples of my writing (https://bit.ly/3O7jkc7).★Follow me and engage with me on LinkedIn (https://bit.ly/2Z2PexP)★Follow me and engage with me on Twitter (https://bit.ly/36XavNI).My equipment:★ Shure SM7B Vocal Dynamic Microphone: https://amzn.to/3AB9Xfz★ Focusrite Scarlett 2i2 3rd Gen USB Audio Interface : https://amzn.to/3AFeA8u★ 2M XLR Cable: https://amzn.to/3GGxkbf★ Logitech Brio Stream webcam. https://amzn.to/3EsWt6C★ Elgato Key Light: https://amzn.to/3Xhiqyh★ Elgato Light Strip: https://amzn.to/3gyZF8P★ Riverside.fm for recording podcasts. bit.ly/3AEQScl ★ Buzzsprout Podcasting Hosting gets (listing podcasts on every major podcast platform along with listening analytics. bit.ly/3EBPNTX[These are affiliate links so I receive a modest commission if you buy them.]

Welcome to episode 122 of the Mikhaila Peterson Podcast. This is another opposing views episode where I speak with two people who have opposing views on contentious subjects. This is my favourite format of episode and one I'll be focusing on. In this episode, I spoke with Dan Gross and Dr. John R. Lott about gun control in America. We discussed their stances on gun control, assault weapons, the gun show loophole, and background check laws. I asked them whether states with stricter gun control have less gun violence. We also touched on straw purchasers, misconceptions regarding gun violence, and how politics has pervaded an already complicated debate—which is one of the reasons we need conversations like this one. In the first half, I sat down with Dan Gross. After his brother was wounded in the 1997 Empire State shooting, Gross left a bright career in marketing to become a gun control activist. He has since worked to raise awareness on gun safety, spearheading campaigns that teach gun owners to mitigate risk. Gross is the former president of the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence and co-founded the Center for Gun Rights and Responsibility. In the second half, I spoke with gun rights advocate, economist, and political commentator John R. Lott. He has worked for Yale, the University of Chicago, and the U.S. Department of Justice under Trump. He is the founder and former president of the Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC). John Lott has published op-eds in The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, the Los Angeles Times, and more. Remember please keep the comments civil - organizing these episodes is tricky and I really love doing them I think they're so interesting so let's keep things civil so that more people will agree to come on. Next week's episode is opposing views on Bitcoin. I hope you enjoy this episode - if you do please hit subscribe. Enjoy your week! Find more Dan Gross on the website: https://cgrr.us/ Follow Dan Gross on Twitter: https://twitter.com/dangrosspax Find more John Lott on: https://www.johnrlott.com/ Follow him on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JohnRLottJr ———————————— Show Notes ———————————— [0:00] Intro [02:45] Dan Gross's background. [05:53] Dan's stance on gun control. [09:24] Dan's suggestion on gun control. [09:59] Finding the balance with gun usage. [10:09] Why Dan was vilified in certain communities. [11:42] Dan's thoughts on who should own guns. [14:55] The gun show loophole. [19:19] The reason behind a gun show loophole. [21:13] The politicized gun debate. [25:03] Do states with stricter gun control have less gun violence? [26:53] Comparing gun access between the states and other countries. [29:44] The REAL problem with guns according to Dan. [31:09] The assault weapon debate. [35:41] Straw purchasers. [38:38] Gun dealers and crime guns. [39:13] Dan's thoughts on how to crack down on straw purchasers. [43:53] Find Dan Gross on Twitter @DanGrossPAX and at The Center for Gun Rights and Responsibility website: https://cgrr.us/ [45:05] John R. Lott Jr.'s background. [45:53] John's view on gun control. [46:07] The sad reality of gun control according to John. [46:42] Inequality in gun control. [53:37] John's perspective on legal gun access. [55:39] Where felons purchase their guns. [56:18] Statistics on gun purchase. [1:02:23] A surprising fact of crime in the US. [1:03:27] Straw purchasers. [01:04:00] John's suggestion to change background checks. [01:07:12] Red flag laws. [01:15:09] John's perspective on gun education. [01:18:52] John's thoughts on children dying from domestic gunshots. [01:19:33] The relationship between gun control and gun crime. [01:20:13] John's advice on governmental gun control. [01:24:55] Find more John Lott on CrimeResearch.org. #MikhailaPeterson #GunRights #GunViolence #OpposingViews #GunControl

Shawn and Dan Gross join me to answer some FAQs about gutter cleaning.There are a variety of opportunities in the Central Pennsylvania real estate market for both buyers and sellers.If you're a prospective buyer click here for a full home search, or if you're considering placing your home on the market, get a free home value report, right here.I am here today with Dan and Shawn Gross from Gross Gutter Cleaning to talk about the importance of safeguarding your home from unwanted pests, leaks, and damage from debris buildup in your gutters. Gross Gutter Cleaning is always climbing high (literally) to make their customers happy. Do not risk your safety trying to climb to the roof, let Gross Gutter do it. Along with not being afraid of heights, they are also fully insured. We have a few questions for them today about what they do: What is the gutter cleaning process? It starts with cleaning all the debris out of all your gutters, using a hose to make sure the gutters and downspouts are flowing properly. After that, they clean everything up and leave you in good shape.Like most home maintenance, a seasonal gutter routine is important. Once you schedule a cleaning with them, you can be automatically placed on their Peace of Mind Service list, so that you never have to worry about scheduling your next gutter cleaning. Preventive maintenance is important in preventing pricey future damage. Why is it important to keep gutters clean? First and foremost, it prevents water damage. When clogged gutters can't drain, water spills over and can seep into your foundation.“Preventive maintenance is important in preventing future damage.” Is it expensive? No, their services are $100 to $200 depending on the size of the house. Do you offer any other services? Gross Gutter Cleaning also offers skylight cleaning, lightbulb changing, and tree trimming. If you mention Joy Daniels, Gross Gutter Cleaning will give all new customers a $25 discount off their first cleaning. Give them a call at (717) 797-9180, visit them online, and let Gross Gutter Cleaning get the gross out of your gutters. If you have any other real estate-related questions, don't hesitate to reach out via phone, 717-695-3177 or email, info@joydaniels.com. We have buyer and seller specialists ready to assist you.

Jade Catta-Preta is joined by Dan Gross: Composer of Michelle Obama's "Waffles + Mochi" and "Drunk History" in another musical episode of JADED. Jade and Dan reminisce about their college days at Emerson, debate whether mushroom therapy is overpriced, and Jade experiences her first bad trip at a taping of "The Price Is Right". Subscribe to the Patreon for early releases and bonus content! patreon.com/jadespod Follow Jade: Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/jadecattapreta​ Jaded Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/jadespodcast​ Twitter: https://twitter.com/JadeCattaPreta​ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/jadecattapreta​ Tik Tok: https://www.tiktok.com/@jadecattapreta​ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In This Episode: Erin and Weer’d have had a rough week, so we  skip the main topic to go heavy on the segments. Sean has a response to our commentary on the Rob Pincus and Dan Gross Ammoland article; David talks about the new Tennessee constitutional carry bill and what they got right, with Oddball following right behind with some commentary on what they got wrong; finally, Xander talks web security, phishing scams, and how it relates to our gun rights. Did you know that we have a Patreon? Join now for the low, low cost of $4/month (that’s $1/podcast) and you’ll get to listen to our podcast on Friday instead of Mondays, as well as patron-only content like mag dump episodes, our hilarious blooper reels and film tracks. Show Notes Sean Sorrentino: PA Gun Blog - It's a Tactic Rob Pincus and Dan Gross Article on Ammoland Game theory and guns Dan Gross at 2A Rally for Your Rights Weer’d World - Look at Their Reaction David and Oddball: House Bill 0786 Senate Bill 0765 TN Handgun Carry Permit Application TN Handgun Permit Fees TN Handgun Permit Eligibility Requirements Xander’s Independent Thoughts: Phishing Dark Waters Social Engineering Podcast  

拜登總統昨天發佈了他就任以來第一項槍支限制總統行政令。 總統6條，目的都是要控制槍支汎濫和美國不斷發生的槍支暴力事件。 他說，“槍支問題是一種流行病，也是讓我們國家在國際上蒙羞的事情。” 6條行政令主要内容如下：第一，是要加強對ghost guns，就是所謂“私造槍”的限制。這種槍是一些人用零件自己在家組裝的，沒有序列號，也無法追蹤到擁有人。目前出售這種槍是合法的，但30天之内，會有詳細限制條款出爐。第二，總統希望在60天之内制定手槍固定槍托的限制方法。科羅拉多槍擊案兇嫌就使用了這種槍托。以後再擁有這種槍托，需要聯邦許可證，再加200美元稅金。第三，在60天之内，讓各州更容易使用“紅色警告”方式，讓民主向警方報告有可能用槍行兇的人。第四，增強槍支流通數據庫管理。第五，給社區防止暴力犯罪機構投資，加強防範。第六，任命David Chipman做煙酒、槍支和爆炸物管理局局長。他之前是聯邦槍支控制組織的探員和顧問。有25年的工作經驗。在強調槍支問題的嚴重性時，拜登總統說：“從亞特蘭大按摩院槍擊事件到科羅拉多超市槍擊案之間，美國一共發生850起和槍支有關的案例，死亡人數高達250人，500人受傷。總統還說，槍支暴力對美國的經濟也產生嚴重影響，從醫院的花費到法律費用，從監獄看管到給幸存者的心理治療，都給經濟帶來壓力。反對槍支的組織對拜登的行政令表示歡迎，但他們還是認爲動作不夠大，時間不夠早。節目中，我們會介紹槍支管理專家Dan Gross 的獨到見解。

This is an ACP Round Table.   Join Erin, Weer'd, David, and Oddball as we discuss: Rob Pincus and Dan Gross' controversial Ammoland article; Hunter Biden's revolver and problematic 4473; the Spree Killing in Boulder, and the store's unfortunate policy on guns; and the various Appeals Court cases challenging the Bumpstock Ban and the right to Open Carry. Did you know that we have a Patreon? Join now for the low, low cost of $4/month (that’s $1/podcast) and you’ll get to listen to our podcast on Friday instead of Mondays, as well as patron-only content like mag dump episodes, our hilarious blooper reels and film tracks. Show Notes Guns in America: Ending the Culture War & Starting a Productive Conversation Huh? Rob Pincus calls for expanded background checks, gun control and then says he didn't Secret Service inserted itself into the case of Hunter Biden's gun King Soopers asks open-carry customers to leave guns at home The Colorado attack is the 7th mass shooting in 7 days in the US LawDog’s Cake Analogy: Text form Cartoon form 9th Circuit Upholds Hawaii Laws Against Open Carry Of Firearms Aposhian v. Barr Cargill v. Barr  

Mark and Lee Williams along with Andy Hooser tackle Lee's rebuttal (and another) regarding an extremely controversial column written by Rob Pincus at Ammoland in conjunction with former Brady President, Dan Gross calling for expanded background checks.

Marc Bonilla discusses the Keith Emerson tribute concert DVD and CD release.

Dan & Gross are back after a brief hiatus, they talk about what has been going on, Gross wants Dan to apologize, the guys fight about Dan's punishment for the hot dog contest and Gross needs advice on two life situations

Dan & Gross chat some music, talk all the new podcast news, and break down March Mayhem with a guest.  PLUS, Dan issues a challenge

Dan & Gross are joined by some familiar faces, the guys try and figure out what to do with all their free time and Dan takes a test

Dan & Gross are quarantined, they are trying to figure out what to do, they have a new March Madness bracket, March Mayhem, and they reflect on Dispatches from Elsewhere

In response to the coronavirus situation affecting all of us right now, the Orange County Gun Prom Dinner on 28th has been postponed.  Stay tuned for updates for when it's rescheduled. http://www.gunprom.com The San Diego GunProm on May 16th is still on! Dan Gross, the former president of the Brady Organization joins the show to share his story.  Dan left the Brady Organization in 2018, and is currently working with Rob Pincus for the Center for Gun Rights & Responsibilities. https://www.facebook.com/Center-for-Gun-Rights-Responsibilities-101995984590085/ Michael, Joe and Laura return from Frontsight in Pahrump. Want to have an amazing experience with firearms training? Listen to Laura's report from the event. -- The right to self-defense is a basic human right. Gun ownership is an integral part of that right. If you want to keep your rights defend them by joining San Diego County Gun Owners (SDCGO),  Orange County Gun Owners (OCGO) in Orange County, San Bernardino County Gun Owners (SBCGO) in San Bernardino County or Riverside County Gun Owners (RCGO) in Riverside. Support the cause by listening to Gun Sports Radio live on Sunday afternoon or on the internet at your leisure Join the fight and help us restore and preserve our second amendment rights. Together we will win. https://www.gunsportsradio.com https://www.sandiegocountygunowners.com https://orangecountygunowners.com/  https://sanbernardinocountygunowners.org/ https://riversidecountygunowners.com/  https://www.firearmspolicy.org/ https://www.gunownersca.com/ https://gunowners.org -- Show your support for Gun Sports Radio sponsors! https://FirearmsLegal.com  https://www.ccwusa.com  https://www.firearmslegal.com  http://www.kalikey.com https://www.primeres.com/alpine  https://www.aosword.com  https://www.cafirearmslaw.com  https://www.thegunrangesandiego.com  https://www.uslawshield.com 

Rob Pincus visits and talks about his work with the former president of the Brady Center, one of the leading anti-gun organizations in the US. Among the other things that occupies Rob's time, he's written a book, "My Daddy has a gun:.. and my mom does too!" Find out more about Rob Pincus's organizations: https://www.2ao.org/ https://www.personaldefensenetwork.com/ Casey from the Gun Range San Diego talks up the new Pistol Red Dots from Holosun.  Have you tried one yet? Don't forget, you can try out all the new off-roster guns at TGR! -- The right to self-defense is a basic human right. Gun ownership is an integral part of that right. If you want to keep your rights defend them by joining San Diego County Gun Owners (SDCGO), the Firearms Policy Coalition (FPC), Gun Owners of California (GOC), and Gun Owners of America (GOA). Join the fight and help us restore and preserve our second amendment rights. Together we will win. https://www.gunsportsradio.com https://www.sandiegocountygunowners.com https://www.firearmspolicy.org/ https://www.gunownersca.com/ https://gunowners.org  

Dan & Gross debate watching "Don't F*** With Cats," the guys discuss dating older women and the bracket get set for the 2020 Donut Challenge

Dan & Gross recap the holidays, Dan talks about his new gift and Dan is furious at Star Wars fans

Stay sane this holiday season by listening to The Complete Christmas: A Morality Tale for Tired Mothers and Wives! In episode four of this six part series, Marabel travels to Christmas Alternate Future with her Can Opener Carl.With Amanda Lund, Matt Gourley, Paul F Tompkins, Mark McConville, Maria Blasucci and Kate Berlant.Created, written and edited by Amanda Lund.With music by the amazing Dan Gross.Additional editing by Matt Gourley.Special thanks to Matt Gourley, Mark McConville and Maria Blasucci. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Dan & Gross talk about their holiday spirit, review the Irishman and talk about a brewery that made a splash

Stay sane this holiday season by listening to The Complete Christmas: A Morality Tale for Tired Mothers and Wives! In episode two of this six part series, Ken the Blender of Christmas Past takes Marabel on a learny journey through the ages.The next two episodes will be out next week! Tune in to see what happens.With Amanda Lund, Matt Gourley, Paul F Tompkins, James Bladon, Mark McConville, Mary Grill, Chris Smith, Kerri Kenney, Molly HawkeyCreated, written and edited by Amanda Lund.With music by Dan Gross See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Stay sane this holiday season by listening to The Complete Christmas: A Morality Tale for Tired Mothers and Wives! Best-smelling author and 1960s self-help guru, Marabel May saved your marriage in The Complete Woman. She helped you become the best version of yourself in Complete Joy. She planned your wedding in The Complete Wedding...and now, she's saving Christmas in her latest audio series, The Complete Christmas!The Complete Christmas is the story of Marabel May, a little housewife who, driven mad from holiday stress, decides to cancel Christmas! She goes on a magical Christmas Eve journey, led by her talking kitchen appliances, throughout space and time and learns the true meaning of Christmas. It's like The Christmas Carol, but for 1960s housewives!Created, written and edited by Amanda Lund.With music by Dan Gross See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Dan & Gross discuss Christmas decorations, Gross watched a documentary that he cannot stop thinking about and the guys received an invitation that Gross is concerned about

Hello Internet! In This Episode: Erin and Weer’d discuss the good news regarding the growth of Constitutional Carry,  the 2A Rally in DC, and Dan Gross (formerly of the Brady Campaign) speaking out as a supporter of the Second Amendment; David talks about using the right ammo in your gun, and some dangerous errors to avoid; and Weer'd interviews Daniel Easterday, of Easterday vs. the Village of Deerfield, about how he defeated an "assault weapons ban" in his home town. Show Notes Main Topic: Permitless gun carry in Oklahoma takes effect Constitutional Carry Candid Conversation With Dan Gross, Former President of The Brady Campaign Dan Gross Speech at 2A Rally Cam and Company interviews Dan Gross Gun lovers and Other Strangers Sporting Arms and Ammunition Manufacturers Institute Can you fire .300 BLK in a 5.56 rifle? LFD Research Films the Firing of .300 Blackout in a .223/5.56 Chamber Daniel Easterday Easterday v  Village of Deerfield Deerfield Assault Weapons Ban: Judge Blocks Village's Ban

Rob Pincus is a professional trainer, author and consultant and VP of Avidity Arms. He is also on the Board of 2AO.org and Walk The Talk America (WTTA). He and his staff at I.C.E. Training Company provide services to military, law enforcement, private security and students interested in self-defense. And most recently Rob was one of the organizers of a first-of-its-kind #2ARally on the west lawn of the US Capitol Building in Washington, DC! - Where did this idea come from, and how important was it for you and the other organizers that it be a true representation of the 2A Community? - You had a “Surprise Speaker” who was very well received by the crowd (Dan Gross, Former President of the Brady Campaign) – tell us about Dan. - Going in what was the yardstick you personally were using to determine whether it was a success? And now that we are on the other side of all the planning, how do you feel it went? - What was one of your biggest hurtles to get over or challenges leading up to the event? - Will this be an annual event?

Dan & Gross have returned.  Dan got asked something very important, Gross has a question about Disney plus and the guys discuss their future

One of the more surprising speakers at the Rally for the 2nd Amendment in Washington, D.C., was Dan Gross, former president of the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence. Cam talks with Dan about his transition from the head of a major gun control group to now speaking out in support of the right to keep and bear arms.

Dan & Gross recap the Baltimore Mini Golf Tournament and talk about the future of the show

Dan & Gross debate the new Dave Chappelle special, talk about their buddies new freedom and ponder about school lunches in 2019

Dan & Gross are back, Dan is back from vacation and tells us all about it, the guys talk about the latest season of Black Mirror and talk about a new arcade game for sale

Dan & Gross talk about the Future of Talking Nonsense, debate a luxury movie going experience and attempt to figure out who should co-host in Dan's absence

Brian from Charm City Run joins Dan & Gross to talk all things running

Dan & Gross return after a short break.  They recap their time off, talk about a new trend in NYC and chat about the latest video games

Dan & Gross discuss the new Joker trailer, recap the March Cinemark Cowboy Crew, debate John Oliver's take on the WWE and hit the mailbag

Dan & Gross are back, Gross shares his concern with the upcoming Cinemark Cowboy Crew, debate what they would do if they won the Powerball, chat about what Jordan Bell did in his hotel room and discuss the 1 Year Anniversary party.

Dan & Gross recap the Duclaw event over the weekend, discuss if Shane Dawson is guilty, discuss Gross' dilemma and hit the mailbag

Dan & Gross recap their weekend, give each other some life advice, chat some video games and movies and jump into the mailbag

Dan & Gross recap the Duclaw interview, set up an impromptu day date, chat about Robert Kraft and a couple of other perverts in the news this week

Dan & Gross open the show by updating everyone as to what they have been up to, Dan rants about "You", they talk about Ashton Kutcher, CJ Anderson and what dating is like in 2019.

Dan & Gross give an update on Hotdoggate, talk about their new professional athletics career, recap January Cinemark Cowboy Crew and take a deep dive into True Detective Season 3

Dan & Gross are back together again.  They recap Dan's Ja Rule concert, Gross shares his embarrassing past and the guys breakdown the shows Gross has been watching on paternity leave

Dan & Gross are back after a small break.  They recap Dan & Gross Date Night, Cinemark Cowboy Crew and give their thoughts on the newest fast food promotion.

Dan & Gross get into some heavy video game chatter, they discuss how they would budget their money if they were women in New York and wrap up the show with an article about finding people partying in their house

Dan & Gross go over their Thanksgiving holiday, recap their movie going experiences and prepare for Dan & Gross Date Night number three.

If you felt like we left you hanging after the first conversation with Dan Gross, never fear - we refreshed our drinks and pick up exactly where we left off. Owning our past, intentional or otherwise, is a huge part of our collective healing. In this episode, we continue the conversation, specifically as it relates to the pervasive patriarchal structure within the church and the fallout as a result. From complicit and complacent to engaged, empathetic and dare I say, woke; we get an inside look at this transformation. Join us?

Dan & Gross are back.  Gross recaps Halloween, they debate who the biggest asshole is of Cinemark Cowboy Crew and talk about how cars will eventually kill everyone

Dan Gross, a writer and critical thinker, shares from his own experiences growing up as a Pastor's Kid in rural Ohio, in short-term missions as a teenager, and a leader in ministry in college and the work force. With a deep dive into both the philosophy and the personal experiences, Dan shows us the balance of gratitude, love and acceptance for family and foundation while still following our own journeys.

Dan & Gross talk about free stuff, Gross reveals why Halloween is his three seed, Dan & Gross debate the new Union house rule and finish by talking about their advent calendar idea.

Dan & Gross are back from their Date Night at Hozier.  They break it down, talk about Cinemark Cowboy Crew and field some questions.

Dan & Gross head to Key Brewing and chat with Mike and Earl of Key Brewing.

Dan & Gross are back.  They catch up on the lost time, talk about an incident that happened with a dog walker and chat about Paul Flart.

Today on Extended Harmony, Dan Gross interviews guitarist Mike Baggetta. Based in New York, Mike Baggetta has an incredible ability to be instantly recognizable, gripping, and intelligent. Plus, he's a great guy to boot. We're going to talk about his early life and influences, how he approaches being a leader vs. a sideman, his guitar picking style, his dope pedal setup, future projects, and of course, any advice he wants to pass along. Thanks for tuning in, and please enjoy this episode of “Extended Harmony.”

"I want to create some thing that’s lasting; that has a meaningingful impact on the people that watch it and that are involved in it." Dan Gross is a local music journalist and creator of the Rochester Indie Musician Spotlight series. I enjoyed talking to Dan all about all things music in Rochester. We got into the philosophies of work and value and the "just do it" attitude. Great talk! See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

EP162 GunBlog VarietyCast - Florida Knows How To Hurricane   Pacifiers & Peacemakers - Friends of the NRA Banquet Felons Behaving Badly - Man accused of robbing 3 Charlotte businesses Flea Market - If you’re a Floridian and you’re not prepared, you’re wrong Main Topic - Dry Fire Training The Bridge -  Carry Guard Expo 3 Blue Collar Prepping - Evacuation Tips and Tricks This Week in Anti-Gun Nuttery - A Final Goodbye to Dan Gross of the Brady Campaign Plug of the Week - Pocket Pro Timer II Take Our Survey - http://survey.podtrac.com/start-survey.aspx?pubid=brT5C5bnSINu&ver=standard GBVC Radio Group - https://www.facebook.com/groups/553920441606392/     Pacifiers & Peacemakers - Friends of the NRA Banquet   Felons Behaving Badly - Man accused of robbing 3 Charlotte businesses Man accused of robbing 3 Charlotte businesses - http://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/local/crime/article170062847.html Man arrested in Northlake Mall shooting - http://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/local/crime/article100687707.html Suspect -http://webapps6.doc.state.nc.us/opi/viewoffender.do?method=view&offenderID=0971349&searchLastName=Gaines&searchFirstName=Antonio&listurl=pagelistoffendersearchresults&listpage=1   Flea Market of Ideas - If you’re a Floridian and you’re not prepared, you’re wrong   The Main Topic - Dry Fire Training   The Bridge - Carry Guard Expo 3   Blue Collar Prepping - Evacuation Tips and Tricks   This Week in Anti-Gun Nuttery - A Final Goodbye to Dan Gross of the Brady Campaign Dan Gross TED Talk: https://youtu.be/G8gJJuCdP_A Trouble in Gun Control Paradise: http://onlygunsandmoney.blogspot.com/2017/09/hmmm-very-interesting-trouble-in-gun.html Shooter Bought Gun Using New Florida ID: https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1997/02/25/shooter-bought-gun-by-using-new-florida-id/8bfb87f6-da54-4422-960c-3ad4bf5dc433/?utm_term=.c55bc272af44 Lying about the Brady Bill: https://www.weerdworld.com/2014/images-of-the-antis-lying-about-the-brady-bill/ GBVC Ep 157: https://gunblogvarietycast.com/episode157/ Obama’s continued use of the claim that 40 percent of gun sales lack background checks: https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/fact-checker/post/obamas-continued-use-of-the-claim-that-40-percent-of-gun-sales-lack-background-checks/2013/04/01/002e06ce-9b0f-11e2-a941-a19bce7af755_blog.html?utm_term=.70693b5bfb8f Accidental Gun Deaths of Minors: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2016/12/09/new-cdc-data-understate-accidental-shooting-deaths-kids/95209084/   Plug of the Week - Pocket Pro Timer II Pocket Pro Timer II - http://amzn.to/2xVgpzi

Extended Harmony with Dan Gross - Ike Sturm Ep. 002 a conversation with jazz bassist and St Peters Church Director of Jazz Ministry, Ike Sturm.

Keith Kohr, co-owner and head brewer of Waredaca Brewing Company of Gaithersburg, Maryland join Chris Sands and Dan Gross.

What a great time I had speaking with Dan Gross from Gross Communications and Elevated Nation digital magazine. We touched on how news is delivered and received, fake news to the politics of cannabis rights. I hope to work more with Dan in the future. Congratulations to him on his accomplishments. Maybe one day we will have a bass duel or cover "Big Bottom" by Spinal Tap.  Dan spent nearly a decade as a columnist at the Philadelphia Daily News, breaking local and national entertainment and news stories. He also worked for five years as President of Communications Workers of America Local 38010 (The Newspaper Guild). There Dan was responsible for crafting and implementing the union’s communications with members and local and national media during several years of high-profile sales and transition at the Philadelphia Inquirer and Daily News. Dan served as a member of the Official Committee of Unsecured Creditors in the Philadelphia Media Holdings Bankruptcy as well as a trustee on the union’s health and welfare and pension plans. Dan, a graduate of Temple University, has written for Rolling Stone, Anthem and Philadelphia magazine.

Hosts Chris Sands and Dan Gross welcome Jim Caruso, CEO of Flying Dog Brewery and Matt Brophy, the company's COO into the studio to discuss the origins of Flying Dog and where they are headed.

Hosts Chris Sands and Dan Gross are joined by Emily Bruno and Julie Verratti of Denizens Brewing Co. in Silver Spring

Host Chris Sands may be out of commission, but Uncapped carries on with hosts Will Randall and Dan Gross. This week the guys sit down with Tom Barse from one of Maryland’s first farm breweries- Milkhouse Brewery

On this episode: Dan Gross from Elevated Nation joins the DDD gang to discuss dead animals, the business of cannabis, a lively real tweets/fake news debate, and words of the year. Dan drops some hot, very old Ramona Singer and Mel Gibson goss (separate stories). Email us for the pic. *wink* (Coco says you need to leave an iTunes review if you want to see the picture.) And visit the brand new DDD store at shop.drunkwordnerds.com and buy something! Links: The Word of the Year for 2016 Isn’t a Word. It’s a Nu

Not since 1965 has there been a more significant overhaul of the American healthcare system. With the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act comes a reshaping of the industry. As a result of these major changes, new opportunities emerge—opportunities to contribute in a meaningful field that is expanding quickly. Hear from industry experts and accomplished instructors who will help us understand the latest trends, identify the most promising fields, and pursue new career pathways. Series: "Career Channel" [Health and Medicine] [Business] [Show ID: 29921]

Not since 1965 has there been a more significant overhaul of the American healthcare system. With the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act comes a reshaping of the industry. As a result of these major changes, new opportunities emerge—opportunities to contribute in a meaningful field that is expanding quickly. Hear from industry experts and accomplished instructors who will help us understand the latest trends, identify the most promising fields, and pursue new career pathways. Series: "Career Channel" [Health and Medicine] [Business] [Show ID: 29921]

We sit down with Dan Gross, gossip columnist for the Daily News for 14 years… The post EPISODE 6: DAN GROSS INTERVIEW appeared first on Cinepunx.

Facebook makes its public debut.  Our analysts discuss Facebook's future and share some stock ideas.  Plus, Yahoo! Finance columnist Dan Gross talks about his new book, Better, Stronger, Faster:  The Myth of American Decline and the Rise of a New Economy.

Multicultural Communication and Courage are on tap in our continuing look at the finalists of the 2009 PRSA Silver Anvil Awards. Brandy speaks with USMC Lieutenant Colonel Chris Hughes ,Director of Public Affairs for the First Marine Expeditionary Force at Camp Pendleton, about his multicultural communication entry "Tell it to the Iraquis" Tomás Dardet President of PRLinks and Dan Gross, CEO and Co Founder of PAX USA, about their “Arm Yourself with Courage” Campaign implemented in Puerto Rico.

In this struggling economy, boomers are rightfully worried about the funds they were counting on to carry them through the rest of their lives. Will they be able to afford their own retirement? NOW turns to two experts for help and insight: Amy Domini, a pioneer in the field of socially responsible investing; and journalist Dan Gross, who covers the economy for Slate and Newsweek.