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The history of Japanese Australians goes back over 100 years. However, it was severely interrupted by the mass deportation in 1946, following the WWII. A photographic exhibition depicting Japanese immigrants from the late 19th to the early 20th century—the period before this break—is currently being held in Cowra, New South Wales, known as the ‘Town of Reconciliation'. It is an attempt to highlight the role and contributions of Japanese immigrants during the period when Australia was beginning to take shape as a nation. We spoke to Dr Tetsu Kimura, a cultural historian at Flinders University who curated the exhibition, and Dr Peter Prince, a legal historian and Research Affiliate at the University of Sydney Faculty of Law, who talks about his research on Jiro Muramatsu, an Australian who is buried in Cowra as a Japanese national. - オーストラリアの日系移民。戦後1946年の日本への大量強制送還で、その歴史がいったん途切れてしまったことを知っていますか?その途切れる以前の日系コミュニティーが、オーストラリアの近代国家形成に果たした役割を紹介する写真展「Unspoken Contributions」が、ニューサウスウェールズ州カウラの日本庭園で開かれています。SBSの日本語放送は火木金の午後1時からSBS3で生放送!火木土の夜10時からはおやすみ前にSBS1で再放送が聞けます。SBS日本語放送ポッドキャストから過去のストーリーを聞くこともできます。無料でダウンロードできるSBS Audio Appもどうぞ。SBS 日本語放送のFacebookとInstagramもお忘れなく。
For most of human history, space has been a place we visited. The next chapter may be about building there.For decades, space was the domain of governments, astronauts, and science fiction. Today, falling launch costs, reusable rockets, and a new generation of ambitious founders are turning orbit into something else entirely: a place to build. The question is no longer whether humanity can construct large-scale infrastructure in space, but what we should build first—and why.In this episode of TechSurge, host Sriram Vishwanath speaks with Dr. Ariel Ekblaw, Founder and CEO of Aurelia Institute, Research Affiliate at MIT's Space Exploration Initiative, and founder of Rendezvous Robotics. Ariel has spent her career exploring one of the most fundamental challenges of the emerging space economy: how to build structures in orbit that are far larger than anything that can fit inside a rocket.Ariel explains the origins of TESSERAE, her pioneering work on autonomous self-assembling space architecture, and how ideas borrowed from biology, swarm intelligence, and modular construction could unlock a future of massive solar arrays, communications infrastructure, orbital laboratories, and eventually human habitats in space.The conversation explores the rapidly emerging market for in-orbit infrastructure, including AI data centers in space, space-based solar power, and the technologies needed to support a permanent industrial presence beyond Earth. Ariel breaks down the engineering realities behind these ideas—why cooling data centers in space is harder than most people assume, how autonomous assembly could solve the scale problem, and why the future of orbital infrastructure may look more like a business park than a collection of standalone satellites.Sriram and Ariel also discuss the broader implications of humanity's return to space: the economics unlocked by reusable launch systems, the opportunities created by dramatically lower transportation costs, and the second-order innovations that may emerge from building an industrial ecosystem in orbit. Along the way, they examine space debris, stewardship of the orbital commons, artificial gravity, and what it will take to make long-term human habitation in space viable.At the heart of the discussion is Ariel's belief that space is not an escape from Earth's problems, but a tool for solving them. Whether through advanced manufacturing, new energy systems, biotechnology research, or entirely new industries, she argues that the next era of space exploration should be focused on improving life here at home.Sign up for our newsletter at techsurgepodcast.com for updates on upcoming TechSurge Live Summits and future episodes.Links:Ariel Ekblaw on LinkedIn:https://www.linkedin.com/in/arielekblawAurelia Institute:https://www.aureliainstitute.orgRendezvous Robotics:https://www.rdvrobotics.comMIT Space Exploration Initiative:https://www.media.mit.edu/groups/space-exploration/overview/How Aurelia is Designing Self-Assembling Space Stations: https://www.fastcompany.com/91242689/how-the-aurelia-institute-is-designing-a-self-assembling-space-stationOverview Energy (Space-Based Solar Power): https://www.overviewenergy.comStarCatcher Industries (Space-to-Space Power Transmission): https://www.starcatcherindustries.comImpulse Space (Orbital Transportation): https://www.impulsespace.comReferences Mentioned During the DiscussionEarthrise - The Apollo 8 Photograph: https://www.nasa.gov/image-article/apollo-8-earthrise/Carl Sagan's “Pale Blue Dot”: https://www.planetary.org/worlds/pale-blue-dotBuckminster Fuller Institute: https://www.bfi.orgWatch Ariel's Talks & InterviewsAurelia Institute YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@AureliaInstituteAriel's TED Talk: https://youtu.be/IHrGK3Mu5K4?si=QwGHq1BEoB-QMUjkSpace Business Podcast - Self-Assembling Space Habitats with Ariel Ekblaw: https://spacebusiness.podbean.com/e/137-self-assembling-space-habitats-ariel-ekblaw-founder-ceo-aurelia-institute/Further ReadingNASA's Artemis Program: https://www.nasa.gov/artemisInternational Space Station (ISS): https://www.nasa.gov/international-space-stationAurelia Institute's Vision for Humanity's Future in Space: https://www.aureliainstitute.orgMIT News: Supporting Mission-Driven Space Innovation: https://news.mit.edu/2025/supporting-mission-driven-space-innovation-aurelia-institute-0710Timestamps:[00:00] Highlights[00:34] Welcome to the Episode[02:33] The New Space Race Begins[04:10] Meet Dr. Ariel Ekblaw[06:30] Why We Explore Space? [12:53] How She Discovered Self-Assembly at MIT [17:10] How TESSERAE Tiles Build Themselves[20:14] How the Tiles Coordinate Like a Swarm[24:47] Repairing and Reconfiguring Structures in Orbit[28:32] Why the Space Industry Is Exploding Now[34:25] The Case for AI Data Centers in Space[45:21] How Much Compute Will Move to Space?[48:40] Why This Space Era Is Different[52:24] The Growing Problem of Space Debris[55:14] Building the Next SpaceX[57:27] What Could Go Wrong in Space?[59:33 ] How Many Hours of Gravity Do Humans Need?[01:00:38] Why We Should Build in Low Earth Orbit First[01:05:09] Should We Really Colonize Mars?[01:11:27] Could You Commute to Space for Work?[01:13:50] Who Makes the Rules in Space?[01:22:30] What's Overhyped and Underhyped in Space[01:26:57]What's the Real Story in Space?
Access to energy has been one of the major driving forces in geopolitics since at least the industrial revolution. Without reliable access to the dominate form of energy, economies stall, people protest, and governments fall apart. The United States has become an energy superpower, leading the way in multiple forms of diversified energy resources, however, its economy remains vulnerable to supply disruptions, particularly for oil and the rare earth minerals currently necessary for renewable energy production. How does the closing of the Strait of Hormuz lead to higher gas prices? What steps can we take to insulate ourselves from these shocks? What are the new and emerging technologies that will reshape our energy infrastructure of the future?This month we speak with Dr. Stephen Bird, Director of the Carsey School of Public Policy at the University of New Hampshire, to explore these questions and more. Dr. Bird's career has focused on all aspects of energy policy, with a particular focus on energy conflicts, polarization, and the energy transition. Join the conversation as we explore the critical spaces that energy occupies in our daily lives and how decisions made thousands of miles away can shape your daily life.Stephen Bird is the Director of Carsey School of Public Policy and a professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire. He is also a research professor (courtesy) at the Institute for Sustainable Environment at Clarkson University where he was formerly a full professor of political science. In addition, he's a faculty Research Affiliate with the Positive Energy Project at the University of Ottawa.Stephen's work examines all aspects of energy policy and regulation broadly, with a deep focus on impacting the energy transition. Engagements and research awards have included New York's Energy Research Authority, the U.S. State Department, the European Commission, National Resources Canada, a 2016 Fulbright Research Chair, and the National Science Foundation. Corporate partnerships have included the NY Power Authority, GE, National Grid, AMD, the US Green Building Council, and IBM.His current research and engagements focus on energy conflict & polarization, drivers of energy acceptance (fracking, solar, wind), split incentives and smart housing, and energy technology governance & implementation (microgrids, green data centers).Stephen completed his PhD at Boston University and his Masters at Harvard University.
The Oireachtas Committee on Budgetary Oversight has heard that if oil prices reached $140 (€120) a barrel, Ireland would be worse off by €7.5 billion, or 2.5% of national income.On a national scale, depending on how high oil prices go, this could necessitate Government borrowing as soon as next year…Joining Shane to discuss this is Adjunct Professor at Trinity College Dublin and Research Affiliate with the ERSI, John FitzGerald.Image: Reuters
Rob Arnott, Founder & Chair of Research Affiliates, discusses where AI works well & can assist across the money management ecosystem, the risk of ‘AI hallucination' & over-reliance, quant vs human judgement, and the future of work. Amidst the volumes written about AI's impact on the business and investing worlds, we wanted to ask some specific questions about adoption, learning, implementation and limitations within the investing universe. We asked these questions of Rob Arnott, founder of Research Affiliates and a previous guest, whose firm is steeped in data, systematic disciplines and empirical evidence. In a compelling and engaging conversation, Rob discusses why common sense can beat data, how AI can hallucinate, its creative limitations, but its unequivocal potency in improving multiple areas of the investing business. Finally, when asked for his convictions across markets, he discusses the exceptional value in US small vs large cap equity!The Money Maze Podcast is kindly sponsored by J.P. Morgan Asset Management*, IFM Investors, World Gold Council and LSEG.*During the episode we cite J.P. Morgan Asset Management as Europe's leading active ETF provider by assets under management. This is sourced from J.P. Morgan Asset management and Bloomberg, data as of 30 March 2026.
How can we turn the 'what ifs' into the 'why nots'?...Today, Abbie, Juanita, and Flavio discuss the World Cafe, including the history of how it came to be and how it continues to evolve in relationship with other approaches like Coordinated Management of Meaning and Appreciative Inquiry....Juanita Brown, PhD. is the Co-founder of the World Cafe with her partner, David Isaacs as well as the co-author, also with David, of the award winning book, The World Café: Shaping our Futures Through Conversations that Matter, now translated into 18 languages. For more than 40 years Juanita has collaborated as a thinking partner with senior leaders across sectors in the U.S. and abroad, crafting large-scale change strategies and creating innovative forums for strategic dialogue on critical business and societal issues. Juanita has served as a Research Affiliate with the MIT Organizational Learning Center and the Institute for the Future, and as a Fellow with both the World Business Academy and The Fielding Institute for Social Innovation. Now in her 80's, Juanita contributes to local community resilience and social healing from her family's legacy homestead in the mountains of North Carolina. Since 1978, Mesquita da Silva has worked in Brazil and internationally in consulting, training, and coaching across human, social, environmental, educational, and organizational development, collaborating with nonprofits, universities, governments, businesses, and United Nations initiatives. He received the Honor to Merit for Relevant Work in the Service of Peace from Brazil's Chamber of Deputies and a Research Scholarship Award from the Institute for Social Innovation at Fielding Graduate University for studies on the World Café.He is a Marie Fielder Fellow and an Institute for Social Innovation Fellow at Fielding Graduate University, where he earned his Ph.D. and M.A. in Human and Organizational Systems, focusing on the World Café and cultures of peace. He also holds an M.A. in Whole Systems Design from Antioch University Seattle with his graduate project: A Holistic Systemic Approach to Peace: A Case for Design....Stories Lived. Stories Told. is created, produced & hosted by Abbie VanMeter.Stories Lived. Stories Told. is an initiative of the CMM Institute for Personal and Social Evolution....Music for Stories Lived. Stories Told. is created by Rik Spann....CMM Institute SubstackCMM Institute Events Page…Explore all things Stories Lived. Stories Told. here.Explore all things CMM Institute here.
Dallas Willard believed that the aim of God in human history is the formation of a community of loving persons — people apprenticed to Jesus, shaped by his character, and prepared to co-reign with him in eternity. In this episode of The UpWords Podcast, host Dan Hummel sits down with Keas Keasler, author of the first comprehensive academic study of Willard's theology. Together they trace Willard's life from Depression-era Missouri to the halls of USC, unpack the philosophical roots of his spiritual formation theology, and ask why his vision for discipleship feels especially urgent in the church today.WHAT YOU WILL LEARNWhy Keas Keasler spent seven years researching Dallas Willard — and what he discovered that surprised himThe key biographical facts of Willard's life: a broken childhood, a pivotal choice between philosophy and seminary, and 47 years at USCHow Willard's friendship with Richard Foster and a small Quaker church in Southern California helped birth the modern spiritual formation movementWhy Willard chose phenomenology — the study of consciousness — and how it shaped his theology of transformationWhat it means that Willard was a committed metaphysical and epistemic realist — and why that grounds everything he taughtWillard's vision of humans as co-rulers with God: what it means, what the parable of the pounds has to do with it, and why formation is training for that callingThe famous Willard line: “Grace is not opposed to effort, but to earning” — and the sophisticated theology behind itThe Golden Triangle of spiritual formation: the Holy Spirit, the spiritual disciplines, and the ordinary decisions of daily lifeThe “sanctification gap” that Richard Lovelace identified in the 1970s — and why it has only widened sinceWhy there is a crisis of character in the church today, and what Willard's vision offers as a remedyGUEST BIOKeas Keasler (PhD, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam) is Associate Professor of Spiritual Theology at Friends University, where he also serves as Program Director of the MA in Christian Spiritual Formation and Leadership. He is a Research Affiliate of the Martin Institute for Christianity and Culture and the Dallas Willard Research Center at Westmont College. An ordained Baptist minister, Keasler has traveled to over forty countries and preached on six continents.RESOURCES & LINKSKingdom Apprenticeship by Keas Keasler (IVP Academic)Hearing God by Dallas Willard (IVP)Spirit of the Disciplines by Dallas WillardThe Divine Conspiracy by Dallas WillardRenovation of the Heart by Dallas WillardBecoming Dallas Willard by Gary MoonThe Kingdom Among Us by Michael Stewart RobbCelebration of Discipline by Richard FosterConversatio.org – Dallas WSend us Fan MailCONNECT WITH USSubscribe to The UpWords Podcast wherever you listen to podcasts and visit slbf.org/studio to learn more about our work at the intersection of faith, the academy, and the marketplace.This episode was created by the SLBF STUDIO at Upper House.Produced by Daniel Johnson and Dave ConourEdited by Dave Conour
What is the expected outcome of the upcoming parliamentary election in Hungary? What are opposition leader Péter Magyar's chances of winning? Will this be the end of the Orbán-era? Will there be any attempts at rigging the election? And if the Tisza party wins, what direction will it adopt toward the European Union and Ukraine? And how will the election influence the future of Europe? Leszek Jazdzewski (Fundacja Liberte!) talks with Dr Edit Zgut-Przybylska, an Assistant Professor at the Institute of Philosophy and Sociology at the Polish Academy of Sciences and a Research Affiliate at the CEU Democracy Institute. Tune in the for their talk! Watch the video recording of the conversation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5jBGq4zWohk This podcast is produced by the European Liberal Forum in collaboration with the Movimento Liberal Social and the Fundacja Liberté!, with the financial support of the European Parliament. Neither the European Parliament nor the European Liberal Forum are responsible for the content or for any use that be made of.
Peace Matters - A Podcast on Contemporary Geopolitics and International Relations
In this episode of Peace Matters, we take a closer look at Hungary's upcoming parliamentary elections and what they could mean for the country and Europe. After 16 years in power, Viktor Orbán faces a serious challenge from former ally Péter Magyar. But is the challenge that serious after all? We explore the possible election outcomes, the dominance of the right in Hungarian politics, and the weakness of the left. The episode also examines Fidesz's family and gender policies and how they shape voter behavior, particularly among women. Finally, we discuss why this election is so consequential for Europe as Hungary heads to the polls.Guest:Andrea Pető is a Professor at the Department of Gender Studies at Central European University, Vienna, Austria, a Research Affiliate of the CEU Democracy Institute, Budapest, and a Doctor of Science at the Hungarian Academy of Sciences. Pető is an internationally sought-after public speaker, and her works on gender, illiberalism and politics have been translated into 25 languages. She has held guest professorships at universities in Argentina, Canada, Germany, Israel, Serbia, and Sweden.She received numerous awards for her contributions to public life, including the 2018 All European Academies (ALLEA) Madame de Staël Prize for Cultural Values and the 2022 University of Oslo Human Rights Award. She is a Doctor Honoris Causa of Södertörn University, Stockholm, Sweden. Recent publications include The Women of the Arrow Cross Party: Invisible Hungarian Perpetrators in the Second World War, Palgrave, Macmillan, 2020, and Forgotten Massacre: Budapest 1944, DeGruyter, 2021.The highly contested category of gender is always central to her work as a researcher and teacher, as well as to her engagement as a feminist public intellectual. Accompanied by:Marylia Hushcha, Researcher and Project Manager at the IIP.The episode was recorded on 23 March 2026.
Subscribe to the new Macro Musings YouTube Channel! Neha Narula is the director of the Digital Currency Initiative which is based out of the Media Lab at MIT. Anders Brownworth is veteran software engineer in the crypto space and is a Senior Research Advisor at DCI. Daniel Aronoff is Research Affiliate in the MIT Department of Economics and a Collaborator at DCI. Neha, Anders, and Daniel join the show to discuss their work at DCI, the current state of stablecoins, their paper on the hidden plumbing of stablecoins, the basic mechanics of stablecoins, the technical and operational risks of stablecoins, the implications for the treasury market, interoperability between blockchains, and much more. Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on February 27th, 2026 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow Neha Narula on X: @Neha Follow Anders Brownworth on X: @Anders94 Follow Daniel Aronoff on X: @DanAronoff Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our Macro Musings merch! Timestamps 00:00:00 - Intro 00:01:41 - Background of the Group 00:03:11 - Digital Currency Initiative 00:05:36 - State of Stablecoins 00:10:42 - Hidden Plumbing of Stablecoins 00:15:42 - Basic Mechanics of Stablecoins 00:26:07 - Technical and Operational Risks of Stablecoins 00:39:09 - Implications for the Treasury Market 00:48:18 - Business Model of Stablecoins 00:49:24 - Interoperability Between Blockchains 00:52:53 - What's the Deal with Tether? 00:56:23 - Outro
On this episode of The Human Rights Podcast, LLM Student Paula Córdova speaks with Dr. Gillian Kane, current Lecturer in Law at Ulster University co-chairing the Human Trafficking Research Network, Research Affiliate at the Refugee Law Initiative and trustee at Chab Dai UK. Join us as we explore Dr. Gillian's research on child criminal exploitation in Northern Ireland and displacement caused by organised crime, and discuss how legal frameworks and human rights responses can better protect vulnerable communities. To learn more about Dr. Gillian's work at: https://pure.ulster.ac.uk/en/persons/gillian-kane/ Key Acronyms mentioned in this episode: IOM (International Organization for Migrations) and NRM (National Referral Mechanisms). The podcast was produced by Paula Cordova in collaboration with the CELT Studios. Intro music: “Smarties Intro – FMA Podcast Suggestion” by Birds for Scale (Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License). Outro music: “Smarties Outro - FMA Podcast Suggestion” by Birds for Scale (Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License).
Jim Masturzo, chief investment officer at Research Affiliates, says that "Volatility is just a reaction to something new, and something that has changed," which is why investors can expect a volatile market as it works through the start of the war in Iran. That said, he is not expecting the war to change much, other than increasing volatility, provided it does not last for a long stretch of time. Masturzo does think that current events will contribute to higher inflation, but he says that — whether the Federal Reserve likes it or not — a 3% inflation rate has become the norm and is likely to remain that way, in large part because the economy has shown that it can push through that level of inflation and continue growing. Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, also digs in on inflation in "The Week That Is," noting that the upcoming inflation numbers will be the financial story of the week ahead, but also potentially for many consumers' financial lifetime, noting that if higher inflation becomes the norm, it dramatically changes the math for building a retirement-savings nestegg that can overcome longevity and purchasing-power risk. Marolia also discusses the early impacts of war in Iran on the market and how he expects it to play out in oil prices, as well as his sense on what's next for the Space X merger. David Trainer, president at New Constructs, takes a victory lap on some Danger Zone picks that have paid off, but where he believes there is significantly more trouble to come. It's a rogue's gallery of names like Affirm and Snap that all have fallen by at least 25% in 2026 and much further than that since their 52-week highs; Trainer notes that these stocks, and several others that he discusses, may look like bargains now that they have been beaten down, but warns that investors who buy now could be catching proverbial falling knives. Further, he says, there is no need to chase big losers in hopes of catching a turnaround.
Rob Arnott returns to Excess Returns to discuss the biggest questions facing investors today, including the impact of geopolitical conflict, the valuation gap between U.S. and international markets, the long-term investment implications of artificial intelligence, and why extreme spreads between growth and value may present major opportunities. Arnott, founder of Research Affiliates and pioneer of fundamental indexing, explains why AI itself is not necessarily a bubble but many AI stocks may be priced for implausible growth. He also discusses why small cap and value stocks may offer some of the most compelling long-term opportunities in decades, how market narratives drive valuations, and why diversification beyond the U.S. could be critical for investors. Throughout the conversation, Arnott draws on decades of market history to explain how bubbles form, why profit margins tend to mean revert, and how investors should think about positioning portfolios for the next market cycle.Topics covered in this episode:• Why Rob Arnott believes AI is real but many AI stocks may be in a bubble• How market narratives can push valuations far beyond fundamentals• Why U.S. stocks trade at roughly twice the valuation multiples of international markets• The widening valuation gap between growth and value stocks• Why small cap stocks may be one of the most attractive opportunities today• The massive capital spending required to build the AI ecosystem• How technological revolutions historically destroy jobs but create new opportunities• Why investors should learn to use AI tools to remain competitive• The definition of a market bubble based on implausible growth expectations• Lessons from the dot-com bubble and the history of dominant technology companies• Why profit margins tend to mean revert over time• The long-term outlook for international stocks and diversification• How fundamental indexing works and why it can create rebalancing alpha• The concept of the “Trifecta” approach combining value, core indexing, and growth• The risks of conglomerate premiums and the diversification discount• Why the largest companies in the market rarely remain dominant over long periods• How investors should think about balancing growth exposure with cheaper opportunitiesTimestamps:00:00 AI vs AI Stocks: Why Arnott Sees a Bubble00:01 Introduction to Rob Arnott and Research Affiliates02:13 The Iran Conflict and How War Impacts Markets06:41 U.S. Valuations vs International Opportunities08:50 The Extreme Spread Between Growth and Value10:00 The Small Cap Opportunity and Index Effects13:08 The Citrini AI Paper and Long-Term Technology Shifts14:09 How Technological Revolutions Destroy and Create Jobs16:00 How AI Is Already Changing Investment Research20:00 Why AI Tools Are Still Losing Money23:40 How Investors Should Think About AI Exposure25:21 Arnott's Definition of a Market Bubble27:41 Lessons from the Dot-Com Bubble28:34 Profit Margins and Mean Reversion30:34 Technology Moats and Competitive Disruption32:12 Will Mean Reversion Still Work in Markets?36:02 The Case for International Stocks41:39 The Trifecta: A New Framework for Indexing51:15 Why Expensive Slow-Growth Companies Underperform56:25 Conglomerate Premiums and Mega Cap Tech57:00 The Long-Term Case for Value and Small Caps01:00:00 Why Market Leaders Rarely Stay on Top
Dr. Andrew Friedman is an Assistant Research Scientist at the Center for Astrophysics and Space Sciences at the University of California, San Diego (UCSD). He is also a Research Affiliate at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). As an astrophysicist and cosmologist, Andy is studying the history of the universe from the Big Bang through present day. Andy and his colleagues use the universe as a laboratory to learn more about how things work. Specifically, Andy uses observations of astronomical objects in other galaxies to learn about fundamental physics and quantum mechanics. When he's not at work, you can find Andy hanging out with his wife and dog, or enjoying good food and good conversation with friends and family. Andy received his bachelor's degree in physics and astrophysics from the University of California, Berkeley and his master's and PhD degrees in Astronomy and Astrophysics from Harvard University. Afterwards, Andy worked as a National Science Foundation Postdoctoral Fellow at MIT, a National Science Foundation funded Research Associate at MIT, and a Visiting Research Scientist at the MIT Center for Theoretical Physics. He joined the Center for Astrophysics and Space Sciences at UCSD in 2017. In our interview, Andy tells us more about his life and science.
As we kick off 2026, the economic headlines are loud, but the real story is in the data and the incentives behind it. In this episode, Jeremy Houser sits down with Dr. Campbell Harvey, Duke professor and Research Affiliates Director of Research, known for early work on the inverted yield curve, to break down what matters most for growth, markets, and resilience in 2026. Campbell discusses: Why the U.S. fiscal picture raises the stakes for stronger real GDP growth Why tariffs function like a tax, plus when they may act more like “risk management” than growth policy Why “AI is just 1999 again” can be a misleading comparison, and what's different this time What a steepening yield curve may be signaling about long rates, inflation expectations, and growth ahead Why rebalancing is an active decision, and how mechanical timing can create hidden performance drag How products that limit downside exposure can fit into a broader, diversified approach His thoughts on Fixed Indexed Annuities And more Resources: AMP Path to Prosperity one-pager: https://insurmarkamp.com/jhouser/ (Click “Learn More”) Connect with Campbell Harvey: LinkedIn: Campbell Harvey Cam Harvey, PhD Connect with Jeremy Houser: jeremy.houser@simplicitygroup.com 713-808-8548 Schedule a Call Our Teams Website Connect with Jeremy @jeremyhouser_amp @jeremyhouserAMP About Our Guest: Campbell R. Harvey is a Professor of Finance at Duke University and Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge, Massachusetts. He served as Editor of The Journal of Finance from 2006 to 2012 and as the 2016 President of the American Finance Association. He holds a Ph.D. in Finance from the University of Chicago. Professor Harvey has served as Partner and Director of Research for Research Affiliates, LLP, and Investment Strategy Advisor to Man Group, PLC, contributing to both research and product design. Professor Harvey received the 2015, 2016, 2022, and 2023 Bernstein Fabozzi/Jacobs Levy Award for the Best Article from the Journal of Portfolio Management for his research. He has also received ten Graham and Dodd Awards/Scrolls for excellence in financial writing from the CFA Institute. He has published over 125 scholarly articles on topics spanning investment finance, emerging markets, corporate finance, behavioral finance, financial econometrics, and computer science. For the past nine years, Professor Harvey taught Innovation and Cryptoventures – a course that focuses on the mechanics and applications of blockchain technology and web3. He offers a certificate in Decentralized Finance on Coursera. He also teaches the advanced elective Global Asset Allocation and Stock Selection which focuses on systematic investment strategies. Disclosure: 5078176 – 0126
Michael Uebel is a psychotherapist and researcher currently based in Austin, Texas. He is recognized as a pioneer in applying psychological insights to the historical intersections of social, personal, and imaginative phenomena. He is a Research Affiliate at the University of Texas at Austin and a psychotherapist in both the public sector and in private practice. Uebel has taught literature and critical theory at several universities, including the University of Virginia, Georgetown University, and the University of Kentucky. Seeds of Equanimity: Knowing and Being (Mimesis, 2025), is an innovative introduction to the philosophy and psychology of equanimity. Uebel challenges the popular modern view often associated with certain mindfulness practices that equanimity is a state of impartial quiescence, solidity, or inner stillness, achieved through emotional regulation. His book reanimates the concept of equanimity by drawing on its philosophical and psychological genealogy by tracing its origins and development, framing it as a dynamic, active, and flexible existential condition. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/new-books-network
Michael Uebel is a psychotherapist and researcher currently based in Austin, Texas. He is recognized as a pioneer in applying psychological insights to the historical intersections of social, personal, and imaginative phenomena. He is a Research Affiliate at the University of Texas at Austin and a psychotherapist in both the public sector and in private practice. Uebel has taught literature and critical theory at several universities, including the University of Virginia, Georgetown University, and the University of Kentucky. Seeds of Equanimity: Knowing and Being (Mimesis, 2025), is an innovative introduction to the philosophy and psychology of equanimity. Uebel challenges the popular modern view often associated with certain mindfulness practices that equanimity is a state of impartial quiescence, solidity, or inner stillness, achieved through emotional regulation. His book reanimates the concept of equanimity by drawing on its philosophical and psychological genealogy by tracing its origins and development, framing it as a dynamic, active, and flexible existential condition. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/buddhist-studies
Michael Uebel is a psychotherapist and researcher currently based in Austin, Texas. He is recognized as a pioneer in applying psychological insights to the historical intersections of social, personal, and imaginative phenomena. He is a Research Affiliate at the University of Texas at Austin and a psychotherapist in both the public sector and in private practice. Uebel has taught literature and critical theory at several universities, including the University of Virginia, Georgetown University, and the University of Kentucky. Seeds of Equanimity: Knowing and Being (Mimesis, 2025), is an innovative introduction to the philosophy and psychology of equanimity. Uebel challenges the popular modern view often associated with certain mindfulness practices that equanimity is a state of impartial quiescence, solidity, or inner stillness, achieved through emotional regulation. His book reanimates the concept of equanimity by drawing on its philosophical and psychological genealogy by tracing its origins and development, framing it as a dynamic, active, and flexible existential condition. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Hear from Dr. Luke Kemp of the Center for the Study of Existential Risk at the University of Cambridge, as we dive into the risk factors for societal collapse in both the past and future. When risk professionals talk about systemic risk, we usually mean markets, institutions, and interconnected exposures. But zoom out far enough, and there's a bigger question underneath it all: what makes an entire society resilient – or vulnerable – to collapse? That's why in this episode, we explore the history and future of societal collapse through a risk lens: looking at how complex systems fail, how multiple threats compound, and the early warning signs of collapse. We discuss: · What societal collapse actually means in practice, and why it's rarely a single event, but a buildup of stresses and cascading failures; · How inequality amplifies fragility, weakening trust, institutions, and the capacity to respond when shocks hit; · And what a real-world "collapse risk dashboard" might look like for societies. To find out more about the Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR®) Certificate, follow this link: https://www.garp.org/scr For more information on climate risk, visit GARP's Global Sustainability and Climate Risk Resource Center: https://www.garp.org/sustainability-climate If you have any questions, thoughts, or feedback regarding this podcast series, we would love to hear from you at: climateriskpodcast@garp.com Links from the discussion: Goliath's Curse: The History and Future of Societal Collapse - https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/321192/goliaths-curse-by-kemp-luke/9780241741238 Speaker's Bio Dr. Luke Kemp, Research Affiliate, Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, University of Cambridge Luke researches the end of the world. He is a Research Affiliate at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) at the University of Cambridge. He has advised and led foresight studies for multiple international organisations, including the WHO and Convention on Biological Diversity. His work has been covered by media outlets such as the BBC, the New York Times, and the New Yorker. He is the author of the bestselling book Goliath's Curse: The History and Future of Societal Collapse.
Rob Arnott, a participant in our recent Investment Icons Debate the Risk Premium event, shares his framework and view on today's markets and assessment of investor behavior.
Follow Us on Substack:https://excessreturnspod.substack.com/In this episode, we sit down with Rob Arnott for a wide-ranging discussion on bubbles, valuations, AI spending, market history, index construction, and long-term return expectations. Rob explains how to think about bubbles in real time, why today's market echoes the late 1990s, and what investors can practically do to improve future returns. He also digs into Research Affiliates' latest work on fundamental indexing, growth investing, and the opportunities in international and emerging markets.Topics covered:• How Rob defines a bubble and why narrative drives market pricing• Lessons from the dot-com era that apply to today's AI-driven market• Why disruptors eventually get disrupted• Practical portfolio steps for investors concerned about concentration• Why value stocks remain historically cheap• CapEx vs R and D and what history says about future returns• The role of AI spending and why many companies struggle to monetize it• How AI may reshape industries and who the real long-term winners could be• Index construction flaws and how RA's RAFI and RACWI approaches differ• A new way to build growth indexes using actual business growth• Why expensive companies with slow growth are the worst quadrant to own• Insights on emerging markets, international value, and forward return expectations• How Rob invests personally and what he sees as the best long-term opportunitiesTimestamps:00:00 Defining bubbles and why narrative matters02:00 Are we in a bubble today06:20 Lessons from the dot-com boom12:00 What investors can practically do now14:00 Value, RAFI, and rebalancing alpha17:00 AI CapEx and its historical parallels20:30 Who benefits most from AI23:00 Disruption, technology cycles, and productivity35:00 Reinventing index construction40:00 A new way to define and weight growth stocks43:30 The problem with expensive slow-growth companies46:00 Magnificent Seven through the growth lens52:00 Rob's outlook on emerging markets55:00 Why the US is priced for perfection57:00 Averaging out and trimming expensive winners58:00 New research and future product ideas from RA59:00 Rob's personal portfolio approach and long-short ideas01:00:20 Closing thoughts and outlook
Dr. Aisha Dad, a Research Affiliate at the Carolina Asia Center and Director of the Classics Gaming Collaborative, joins Lexie to discuss her move from medicine to falling in love with literature and classics, her work in reception studies, particularly in how ancient stories are retold in modern contexts such as video games and literature, the challenges of being a person of color in the field and the importance of rethinking what constitutes 'classics'. So tuck in your togas and hop aboard Trireme Transit for this week's exciting odyssey! Don't forget to follow us on Twitter, Facebook & Instagram or visit our website www.theozymandiasproject.com! Originally recorded April 24, 2025. Check out the Apollodorus Project: https://paizomen.com/apollodorus/ Find her forthcoming book Through the Looking Glass: https://www.hup.harvard.edu/books/9780674303317 Support us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/TheOzymandiasProject Custom music by Brent Arehart of Arehart Sounds and edited by Dan Maday. Want a transcript of the episode? Email us at theozymandiasprojectpodcast@gmail.com and we can provide one. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
This week on Talk World Radio we are talking about the collapse of societies with the author of one of the best books I've read in a long time. The book is called Goliath's Curse. The author is Luke Kemp, who is also a Research Affiliate & Former Research Associate at the Center for the Study of Existential Risk at the University of Cambridge.
Is the AI boom just a bubble or the start of something bigger? Host Merryn Somerset Webb sits down with Rob Arnott, founder and chairman of the board of Research Affiliates, to compare artificial intelligence mania with the dot-com era, unpack sky-high valuations and market concentration while exploring what rising competition, power constraints and Capex mean for Nvidia and the “Magnificent Seven.” Arnott shares a pragmatic playbook—fade frothy winners, favor fundamentals (including his RAFI approach) and look to small caps, the UK and emerging markets—plus candid takes on Bitcoin and holding a little gold as insurance.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
In the Movers in Our Orbit podcast series, we speak with friends of SSPI who recently made big executive moves. We'll find out what they're doing now and what they hope to achieve in their new roles in the industry. In a rebroadcast of the first episode of season 2, we hear from Kelsey Doerksen, GeoAI Postdoctoral Researcher at Arizona State University and 2021 Promise Award Recipient. Passionate to do impactful work for Earth, in space, Kelsey Doerksen is currently pursuing her PhD at the University of Oxford in the Autonomous Intelligent Machines and Systems Centre for Doctoral Training Program, in the Oxford Applied and Theoretical Machine Learning Group under supervision of Yarin Gal. She is focusing her research on the uses of AI and Machine Learning to enable science discovery and understanding of climate-focused applications (expected graduation, 2025). Kelsey is a Research Affiliate at the NASA Jet Propulsion Lab and a part of the Machine Learning and Instrument Autonomy group, working on the Scientific Understanding from Data Science Strategic Initiative. She is also a Data Scientist with the Climate and Data Environment Unit at UNICEF, building the data pipeline infrastructure and providing analysis necessary to create the UNICEF Children's Climate Risk Index.
Rob Arnott, founding chairman at Research Affiliates, says that classic index instruction has investors buying stocks after they get hot, dropping stocks after losses have occurred and missing out on several percentage points of return in the process. Arnott says the largest stocks earn their place in the index, but that the stocks that move into or out of an index — a process that is actively managed with the most-famous indexes — is where the trouble happens. As for the personal indexes that are arising these days, Arnott says that, in general, you'd be better off letting a cat pick the stocks for you. Olivia Valdes, senior researcher at the FINRA Foundation, discusses their research which shows that consumers and investors are vulnerable to fraud because more than half of them don't recognize the common signs that someone is trying to pull a scam. Plus, Chuck talks about how to calculate the expected value of a bet after a listener raises questions about the lottery option on his Halloween cash-or-candy game, and whether giving kids a second chance — the new twist Chuck is adding this year — doubles the odds of winning.
In this week's episode of WSJ's Take On the Week, co-hosts Gunjan Banerji and Telis Demos dig into the latest big bank earnings and what they signal about the health of the U.S. consumer. Next, they explore the disconnect between potential economic warning signs and the market's speculative fever, where the “buy the dip” mentality continues to drive stocks to new records. Finally, they look ahead to the upcoming earnings from Coca-Cola, Keurig Dr Pepper, Colgate-Palmolive, Ford and GM. Then, after the break, Rob Arnott, founder of investment firm Research Affiliates, joins Gunjan to chat about the stock market bubble. Arnott explains his case for why the market is "priced for perfection," and later, he breaks down how government stimulus and the rise of index funds are fueling the rally. And where can investors find opportunities in a frothy market? Arnott has an answer. This is WSJ's Take On the Week where co-hosts Gunjan Banerji, lead writer for Live Markets, and Telis Demos, Heard on the Street's banking and money columnist, cut through the noise and dive into markets, the economy and finance—the big trades, key players and business news ahead. Have an idea for a future guest or episode? How can we better help you take on the week? We'd love to hear from you. Email the show at takeontheweek@wsj.com. To watch the video version of this episode, visit our WSJ Podcasts YouTube channel or the video page of WSJ.com Further Reading Big Banks Cash In on Well-Heeled Borrowers The Nation's Biggest Banks Are Saying the Economy Is Still Strong Trump's Threat on Higher China Tariffs Wipes Out Stocks' Weekly Gains U.S., China Aim for a Delicate Balancing Act on Trade An Unlikely Investing Hack: Why You Can Sleep Soundly and Earn More For more coverage of the markets and your investments, head to WSJ.com, WSJ's Heard on The Street Column, and WSJ's Live Markets blog. Sign up for the WSJ's free Markets A.M. newsletter. Follow Gunjan Banerji here and Telis Demos here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens ✓ Claim : Read the notes at at podcastnotes.org. Don't forget to subscribe for free to our newsletter, the top 10 ideas of the week, every Monday --------- For many people today, the idea of societal collapse is unimaginable. Yet history shows that well-established civilizations have fallen again and again – often for similar reasons. In fact, the same forces that build empires can also culminate in their downfall. How can understanding these historical patterns help us prepare for similar existential risks we may already be facing today? In this episode, Nate is joined by existential risk researcher Luke Kemp to explore the intricate history of societal collapse – connecting patterns of dominance hierarchies, resource control, and inequality to create societies which he calls Goliaths. Together, they delve into the deep history of what egalitarian humans were like before complex civilizations emerged, and the changes in climate and agriculture that created the conditions for hierarchical societies. Luke explains how these very same factors have culminated in the rise and fall of Goliaths, and how these have led to today's global challenges such as nuclear warfare and even AI-fueled surveillance states. Can knowing our past help us avoid repeating it? Are we in collapse now, and was this civilizational trajectory inevitable? How does the study of civilizational collapse help us grasp the best and worst of humanity – and can we use that knowledge to lean into the better sides of ourselves and put ourselves on a different, more resilient path? (Conversation recorded on August 6th, 2025) About Luke Kemp: Luke is a Research Affiliate at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) and Darwin College at the University of Cambridge. His research focuses on understanding the history and future of extreme global risk. Luke has advised the WHO and multiple international institutions, and his work has been covered by media outlets such as the BBC, New York Times, and the New Yorker. He holds both a Doctorate in International Relations and a Bachelor of Interdisciplinary Studies with first class honours from the Australian National University (ANU). His first book, titled Goliath's Curse: The History and Future of Societal Collapse, was published in 2025 and is now available. Show Notes and More Watch this video episode on YouTube Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie. --- Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future Join our Substack newsletter Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners
For many people today, the idea of societal collapse is unimaginable. Yet history shows that well-established civilizations have fallen again and again – often for similar reasons. In fact, the same forces that build empires can also culminate in their downfall. How can understanding these historical patterns help us prepare for similar existential risks we may already be facing today? In this episode, Nate is joined by existential risk researcher Luke Kemp to explore the intricate history of societal collapse – connecting patterns of dominance hierarchies, resource control, and inequality to create societies which he calls Goliaths. Together, they delve into the deep history of what egalitarian humans were like before complex civilizations emerged, and the changes in climate and agriculture that created the conditions for hierarchical societies. Luke explains how these very same factors have culminated in the rise and fall of Goliaths, and how these have led to today's global challenges such as nuclear warfare and even AI-fueled surveillance states. Can knowing our past help us avoid repeating it? Are we in collapse now, and was this civilizational trajectory inevitable? How does the study of civilizational collapse help us grasp the best and worst of humanity – and can we use that knowledge to lean into the better sides of ourselves and put ourselves on a different, more resilient path? (Conversation recorded on August 6th, 2025) About Luke Kemp: Luke is a Research Affiliate at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) and Darwin College at the University of Cambridge. His research focuses on understanding the history and future of extreme global risk. Luke has advised the WHO and multiple international institutions, and his work has been covered by media outlets such as the BBC, New York Times, and the New Yorker. He holds both a Doctorate in International Relations and a Bachelor of Interdisciplinary Studies with first class honours from the Australian National University (ANU). His first book, titled Goliath's Curse: The History and Future of Societal Collapse, was published in 2025 and is now available. Show Notes and More Watch this video episode on YouTube Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie. --- Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future Join our Substack newsletter Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners
Rob Arnott, founder and chairman of Research Affiliates, joins The Enterprising Investor to challenge long-held assumptions about the equity risk premium and asset allocation. Drawing on Fear, Not Risk, Explains Asset Pricing, the provocative paper he co-authored with Edward McQuarrie, Arnott explores why markets may reward investors less for traditional risk-taking than previously believed, and how fear—both of loss and of missing out—better explains investor behavior. From historical return data to the role of AI in gauging market sentiment, Arnott offers a bold framework that could reshape modern finance. Tune in to rethink the foundations of modern asset pricing. Learn more about Rob Arnott: https://rpc.cfainstitute.org/voices-of-influence/rob-arnott Mike mentioned "Stocks for the Long Run" article by Ed McQuarrie and others, you can find that here: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/0015198X.2023.2268556 This show is made possible through partnerships with sponsors like Tenzing MEMO. Tenzing MEMO gets professionals up to speed quickly on ~6,000 public companies with real-time research, topical briefings, and intelligent Q&A derived from the latest market data, filings, news, and transcripts. Use MEMO to go from 0 to 60 fast on your watchlist, competitors, clients, and your own company, too. Register for a free trial to see what Tenzing MEMO can do for you today. Visit their website and give it a try. https://www.tenzingmemo.com/
Research Affiliates Founder & Chairman Rob Arnott discusses his new ETF ticker (RAUS) and the future of passive investing. Arnott spoke with Bloomberg's Katie Greifeld and Scarlett Fu.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Today's guest has a contrarian bullish view on bonds, especially when looking out over the next 3 to 5 years.While consensus still leans cautious, his take is that this moment offers a rare setup for strong bond performance.Why? Well, let's ask the man himselfToday we have the good fortune to welcome to the program Jim Masturzo, CIO of Multi-Asset Strategies at Research Affiliates.Around $150 billion in assets are managed worldwide using investment strategies developed by Research Affiliates.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#bonds #interestrates #treasurybonds0:00 - Jim Masturzo's contrarian bullish view on bonds1:49 - Current assessment of economy and financial markets4:13 - Why the market is too bearish on bonds8:35 - Tariffs as a one-time price shock vs. sustained inflation11:36 - Factors for higher vs. lower bond yields16:03 - US treasuries remain a safe haven despite reduced foreign purchases20:34 - Economic slowdown and Fed interventions favor lower yields24:40 - No strong recession concerns, focus on diversification26:46 - Opportunities in emerging market equities and local debt32:28 - Attractive valuations in Brazil, Turkey, and Eastern Europe37:03 - Retail investors should stick to emerging market ETFs40:25 - Duration favorable for bonds as yields decline44:02 - Risks in private credit for retail investors51:31 - Commodity outlook: favor active management over passive56:16 - Advice for retail investors: focus on education and diversification_____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.
PURCHASE THIS PODCOURSE! If you are a therapist or counselor looking for continuing education, check out my NBCC Approved $5 Podcourses and other continuing education offerings.Plus, get your first Podcourse half off. Since 2009, rates of anxiety, depression, and suicidality among young people have risen sharply, and research points to smartphones and social media as major contributors. In this episode, I talk with Dr. Johann D'Souza, a clinical psychologist specializing in OCD and anxiety, about what is driving this crisis and how we can respond. We unpack the four harmful effects of excessive screen time: sleep deprivation, addiction, social isolation, and distraction. We also explore evidence-based solutions that work. From creating phone-free schools to encouraging unstructured play and family screen detoxes, you will hear practical steps parents, therapists, and communities can take to protect youth well-being.
The revelation that shattered systems thinking: Replacing every combustion car with electric vehicles improves urban efficiency by only 6%—revealing why isolated optimizations fail in complex ecosystems.Dr. Parfait Atchadé from MIT Media Lab discovered this through quantum-enhanced urban modeling in Boston's Kendall Square. His breakthrough: humanized AI agents with emotional architectures that "live" in virtual cities for decades of compressed time, then vote on configurations—exposing the systematic failure of single-variable optimization. Paradigm Shifts:→ The Single-Solution Trap: Complex systems require the vast majority of improvements from interconnected changes—individual optimizations create illusion of progress while missing systemic impact→ Quantum Superposition Planning: Test multiple city configurations simultaneously rather than sequential scenarios—compress 40 years of urban experience into months of simulation→ Agents with Feelings: AI agents embedded with emotional models (joy, fear, anger, sadness) provide qualitative experience data impossible to capture from human stakeholders→ Portfolio Voting Revolution: Beyond binary decisions—split voting percentages across options like investment portfolios, enabling nuanced collective optimization→ Traditional systems modeling: Sequential scenario testing vs. Quantum approach: Parallel reality simulation with dramatic efficiency gainsThe Innovation: Humanized Agent-Based Modeling (h-ABM) creates digital beings with memory, perception, and emotional responses that navigate virtual systems, accumulating experiences and providing stakeholder insights traditional analytics cannot capture.Strategic Application: Any complex ecosystem requiring multi-stakeholder optimization—from organizational transformation to supply chain design—can leverage quantum-enhanced modeling with emotionally-intelligent agents.Strategic Reframe: The most adaptive ecosystems will shift from asking "How do we optimize individual components?" to understanding: "How do we architect systems where quantum-enhanced agents can help us reveal the hidden interdependencies that single-solution approaches systematically miss?"#EcosystemicFutures #QuantumComputing #SystemsThinking #UrbanPlanning #MIT #ComplexSystems #AgentBasedModelingGuest: Dr. Parfait Atchadé, Research Affiliate, MIT Media Lab | Strategic Business Officer, Lighthouse DIGHost: Marco Annunziata, Co-founder, Annunziata & Desai AdvisorsSeries Hosts: Vikram Shyam, Lead Futurist, NASA Glenn Research Center Dyan Finkhousen, Founder & CEO, Shoshin WorksEcosystemic Futures is provided by NASA Convergent Aeronautics Solutions Project in collaboration with Shoshin Works.
KCSB's Emerson Good sits down with Executive Director Ben Halpert from the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis to talk about their 30th year of environmental research and their new initiative to use AI for environmental good.
Scientific Sense ® by Gill Eapen: Prof. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé is Professor of Economics at Columbia University, an Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research and a Research Affiliate at the Centre for Economic Policy Research. Her research focuses on the design of monetary and fiscal policies, including optimal macroprudential policy, and on understanding the sources and propagation of macroeconomic shocks within and across countries.Please subscribe to this channel:https://www.youtube.com/c/ScientificSense?sub_confirmation=1
Could the future see the emergence and adoption of a new field of engineering called nucleonics, in which the energy of nuclear fusion is accessed at relatively low temperatures, producing abundant clean safe energy? This kind of idea has been discussed since 1989, when the claims of cold fusion first received media attention. It is often assumed that the field quickly reached a dead-end, and that the only scientists who continue to study it are cranks. However, as we'll hear in this episode, there may be good reasons to keep an open mind about a number of anomalous but promising results.Our guest is Jonah Messinger, who is a Winton Scholar and Ph.D. student at the Cavendish Laboratory of Physics at the University of Cambridge. Jonah is also a Research Affiliate at MIT, a Senior Energy Analyst at the Breakthrough Institute, and previously he was a Visiting Scientist and ThinkSwiss Scholar at ETH Zürich. His work has appeared in research journals, on the John Oliver show, and in publications of Columbia University. He earned his Master's in Energy and Bachelor's in Physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, where he was named to its Senior 100 Honorary.Selected follow-ups:Jonah Messinger (The Breakthrough Institute)nucleonics.orgU.S. Department of Energy Announces $10 Million in Funding to Projects Studying Low-Energy Nuclear Reactions (ARPA-E)How Anomalous Science Breaks Through - by Jonah MessingerWolfgang Pauli (Wikiquote)Cold fusion: A case study for scientific behavior (Understanding Science)Calculated fusion rates in isotopic hydrogen molecules - by SE Koonin & M NauenbergKnown mechanisms that increase nuclear fusion rates in the solid state - by Florian Metzler et alIntroduction to superradiance (Cold Fusion Blog)Peter L. Hagelstein - Professor at MITModels for nuclear fusion in the solid state - by Peter Hagelstein et alRisk and Scientific Reputation: Lessons from Cold Fusion - by Huw PriceKatalin Karikó (Wikipedia)“Abundance” and Its Insights for Policymakers - by Hadley BrownIdentifying intellectual dark matter - by Florian Metzler and Jonah MessingerMusic: Spike Protein, by Koi Discovery, available under CC0 1.0 Public Domain Declaration
In this episode of the Power of Zero Show, David McKnight looks at headlines, such as those from Vanguard, BlackRock or Morningstar, that have predicted a dismal forecast for stock market returns over the next decade. Since such articles predict 4-5% annual growth for the next decade, many investors are pondering whether they should take some chips off the table. Back in 2015, those same institutions and companies stressed that valuations were too high and that, since the markets had a great run, it couldn't possibly continue anymore. Vanguard forecasted 4-6% returns, BlackRock predicted 4.5-5% returns, while Research Affiliates predicted an anemic 1.5-2% returns. However, from 2015 through 2024, the S&P 500 posted a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of roughly 11.9% - proving those predictions wrong! In fact, such forecasts by stock market research institutions turned out to be off by 5-6%. David believes that financial institutions making failed predictions about the future of the stock market isn't just the exception, it's the rule. In the 2015-2024 timespan, we had a global pandemic that shut down entire economies, interest rates fell to zero, then spiked in record time, massive government stimulus, a tech boom, a crypto craze, and the rise of AI. - How many of those events could have been predicted in 2015? David doesn't recommend putting too much stock in long-term market forecasts by large financial institutions because, even if they might be well-researched, they're still guesses. For David, you shouldn't let fear drive your investment behavior. Not only should you stay invested over the next 10 years, but you should focus on investing inside tax-free accounts. Think about a balanced, comprehensive tax-fee approach that takes advantage of every nook and cranny in the IRS tax code. David refers to tools such as Roth IRAs, Roth 401(k)s, and some properly structured cash value life insurance policies like Indexed Universal Life. What drives long-term stock market returns? “It isn't predictions, emotions, or headlines, it's innovation and productivity. If you look around, you can see that those things are accelerating, not slowing down,” says David. Mentioned in this episode: David's national bestselling book: The Guru Gap: How America's Financial Gurus Are Leading You Astray, and How to Get Back on Track DavidMcKnight.com DavidMcKnightBooks.com PowerOfZero.com (free video series) @mcknightandco on Twitter @davidcmcknight on Instagram David McKnight on YouTube Get David's Tax-free Tool Kit at taxfreetoolkit.com Vanguard BlackRock Morningstar Research Affiliates S&P 500 Warren Buffett
Today's guests are Rob Arnott, founder and Chairman of the board of Research Affiliates, and Campbell Harvey, Head of Research at Research Affiliates and Professor of Finance at the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University. In today's episode, Rob and Cam touch on the state of value investing in a megacap dominated market, emphasizing the potential consequences of large scale passive investing. They also touch on the rapid change presented by AI, what it may be capable of, and its impacts on how we should view investing. Finally, they address the global investing environment and macro trends, instability, and the role of government in changing world markets. (0:00) Starts (1:46) Introduction of Rob Arnott & Cam Harvey (7:35) Passive investing risks (14:22) The opportunity in small caps and foreign markets (24:22) Similarities between today & the Dot-Com era (34:43) REITs, gold and investor sentiment (47:14) Government spending & US national debt concerns (1:03:27) US debt service, defense spending, and financial crisis risks (1:05:09) Cam on the inverted yield curve (1:08:09) Closing remarks and listener feedback ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Sponsor: YCharts enables financial advisors to make smarter investment decisions and better communicate with clients. Get 20% off your initial YCharts Professional subscription when you start your free trial. ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Research Affiliates founder Rob Arnott to explore his provocative research challenging mainstream economic assumptions. Rob walks us through why government stimulus often fails to deliver real growth, how decades of rising spending have shaped today's economic environment, and what the implications are for debt, deficits, and future returns. We also dive into trade policy, tariffs, and where Rob sees the best opportunities in today's markets using Research Affiliates' capital markets expectations.Full Paper:https://www.researchaffiliates.com/publications/articles/1080-stimulus-does-not-stimulate
What's the matter with Medicaid? Have Germany's manufacturing policies been successful? And are Greece and Argentina the new role models for fiscal responsibility? We look through those questions today with Brian Blase and Paul Winfree. Brian Blase, Ph.D., is the President of Paragon Health Institute. Brian was Special Assistant to the President for Economic Policy at the White House's National Economic Council (NEC) from 2017-2019, where he coordinated the development and execution of numerous health policies and advised the President, NEC director, and senior officials. After leaving the White House, Brian founded Blase Policy Strategies and served as its CEO. Dr. Paul Winfree is the Founder, President, and CEO of the Economic Policy Innovation Center in Washington, D.C. He is also a Research Affiliate at the Queen's University Centre for Economic History (Queen's University Belfast), and an Advisor at the Centre for Economics, Policy and History (Trinity College Dublin and Queen's University Belfast). His research focuses on public finance, the political economy, and U.S. economic history.
Jim Masturzo, chief investment officer for multi-asset strategies at Research Affiliates, says that despite the uncertainty surrounding tariff policies and geo-politics, international markets remain attractive and with a better valuation than domestic markets. But those global markets may also get a boost from the Trump Administration's plans to weaken the dollar — a dollar that Masturzo says his firm believes is currently 25 percent overvalued — so he emphasized that investors should not "fight the Treasury," and should instead follow its actions to more international exposure in their portfolios. Lester Jones, chief economist for the National Beer Wholesalers Association, discusses the latest Beer Purchasers Index, which shows that forward-looking demand for beer is contracting, a sign that consumers may be looking to pull back on spending. Plus, Taylor Krystkowiak, vice president and investment strategist for the Themes ETFs discusses some popular investment themes — and the stocks that best represent them — in the Money Life Market Call.
Best known for his seminal work on the information content of the US Treasury yield curve nearly 4 decades ago, Campbell Harvey has produced meaningful academic research in all corners of empirical finance. In this episode of the Alpha Exchange, I caught up with Campbell, now a Professor of Finance at Duke and Partner at Research Affiliates, on his recent work on gold, an asset near and dear to me. We discuss his piece “Is There Still a Golden Dilemma?", with Claude Erb that updates work they did back in 2013 on the yellow metal.Our conversation explores the financial properties of gold, with emphasis on its capacity to hold its purchasing power and to help defend against equity market drawdowns. On the first, Campbell makes the point that over the past two decades, gold has easily outperformed inflation. He adds, however, that gold is considerably more volatile than inflation is. Thus, there are periods when gold can also underperform inflation. On the equity drawdown front, Campbell's work shows that, while not an explicit hedge like an S&P 500 put option is, gold has proven durable during risk-off periods.We move to the drivers of the gold price and here Campbell discusses the role of both ETFs and Central Banks. Lastly, and importantly, Campbell's work shows that entry price matters. When the price of gold deviates from fair value, the forward return profile tends to be worse. Today's substantial rally may easily continue, but investors must be mindful of the risks of buying at extended levels.I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Campbell Harvey.
Read the full transcript here. Is it useful to vote against a majority when you might lose political or social capital for doing so? What are the various perspectives on the US / China AI race? How close is the competition? How has AI been used in Ukraine? Should we work towards a global ban of autonomous weapons? And if so, how should we define "autonomous"? Is there any potential for the US and China to cooperate on AI? To what extent do government officials — especially senior policymakers — worry about AI? Which particular worries are on their minds? To what extent is the average person on the street worried about AI? What's going on with the semiconductor industry in Taiwan? How hard is it to get an AI model to "reason"? How could animal training be improved? Do most horses fear humans? How do we project ourselves onto the space around us?Helen Toner is the Director of Strategy and Foundational Research Grants at Georgetown's Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET). She previously worked as a Senior Research Analyst at Open Philanthropy, where she advised policymakers and grantmakers on AI policy and strategy. Between working at Open Philanthropy and joining CSET, Helen lived in Beijing, studying the Chinese AI ecosystem as a Research Affiliate of Oxford University's Center for the Governance of AI. Helen holds an MA in Security Studies from Georgetown, as well as a BSc in Chemical Engineering and a Diploma in Languages from the University of Melbourne. Follow her on Twitter at @hlntnr. StaffSpencer Greenberg — Host / DirectorJosh Castle — ProducerRyan Kessler — Audio EngineerUri Bram — FactotumWeAmplify — TranscriptionistsMusicBroke for FreeJosh WoodwardLee RosevereQuiet Music for Tiny Robotswowamusiczapsplat.comAffiliatesClearer ThinkingGuidedTrackMind EasePositlyUpLift[Read more]
Today's guest is Jim Masturzo. Jim is the CIO of Multi-Asset Strategies at Research Affiliates and is responsible for the firm's tactical asset allocation and cross-asset portfolios. He is also co-portfolio manager on the PIMCO All Asset and All Asset All Authority funds. In today's episode, Jim & I discuss the evolving landscape of asset allocation. He highlights the fragility of US markets amid high valuations, the divergence between China & India, and why private equity expectations may not align with public equity fundamentals. He also explores the current landscape of fixed income and explains why he thinks the impact of AI on productivity may not be as positive as expected. P.S. – do you know the origin of the 60/40 portfolio? Shoot us a message at feedback@themebfabershow.com. ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more. ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here! ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In this episode, Liz Ann Sonders and Kathy Jones discuss this week's FOMC meeting and the market reactions. Then, Liz Ann speaks with Rob Arnott, founder and chairman of the board of Research Affiliates®. They discuss some of the advanced approaches of Research Affiliates, particularly focusing on the Research Affiliates Fundamental Index® (RAFI) and its implications for growth and value investing. They explore the differences between traditional indexing methods and RAFI, the challenges of forecasting market returns, and the potential for paradigm shifts in finance. The discussion emphasizes the importance of understanding market dynamics and the nuanced definitions of growth and value in investment strategies.Finally, Kathy and Liz Ann look ahead to the data and economic indicators that investors should be watching next week. You can read Rob's article, which Liz Ann mentions, here: "Fifty Years of Innovation, Mythmaking, and Mythbusting: Personal Reflections." On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting. If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.Important DisclosuresInvestors should consider carefully information contained in the prospectus, or if available, the summary prospectus, including investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. You can request a prospectus by calling 800-435-4000. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing.The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision.All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed.Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions.The trade names "Research Affiliates®" and "Fundamental Index®" are registered trademarks of Research Affiliates, LLC.Fundamental Index® is a trademark of Research Affiliates. Rob Arnott, Research Affiliates, and FTSE Russell are unaffiliated with Schwab Asset Management® and Charles Schwab & Co.All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.Diversification and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit and cannot protect against losses in a declining market.There are risks associated with investing in dividend paying stocks, including but not limited to the risk that stocks may reduce or stop paying dividends.Schwab does not recommend the use of technical analysis as a sole means of investment research.Rebalancing does not protect against losses or guarantee that an investor's goal will be met.Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.(0125-NC10)
In this episode of Excess Returns, Jack Forehand and special guest host Perth Tolle sit down with Rob Arnott, founder of Research Affiliates and pioneer of fundamental indexing. Rob discusses his thought-provoking article "50 Years of Innovation, Myth Making and Myth Busting," written for the 50th anniversary of the Journal of Portfolio Management. The conversation covers several critical investing myths and insights, including: The evolution of fundamental indexing and why "smart beta" has lost its meaning Why historical returns can be deceptive when estimating future equity risk premiums The surprising truth about long-term forecasting in markets The impact of index funds on market efficiency and stock prices Why buybacks aren't necessarily equivalent to dividends The challenges facing U.S. growth stocks at current valuations Rob brings over four decades of investment experience to this discussion, offering candid perspectives on market valuation, index fund dynamics, and the future of passive investing. His insights are particularly valuable for investors trying to navigate today's complex market environment. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA https://www.validea.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau
On today's episode, Clay is joined by Rob Arnott to discuss the Fundamental Index, the equity risk premium, and where Rob believes we're at in the value cycle. Rob Arnott is the founder and chairman of the board of Research Affiliates. Rob plays an active role in the firm's research, portfolio management, product innovation, business strategy, and client-facing activities. He is a member of the Executive Committee of the board. Rob is co-portfolio manager on the PIMCO All Asset and All Asset All Authority funds and the PIMCO RAE™ funds. Over his career, Rob has endeavored to bridge the worlds of academic theorists and financial markets, challenging conventional wisdom and searching for solutions that add value for investors. IN THIS EPISODE YOU'LL LEARN: 00:00 - Intro 02:02 - What the Fundamental Index is and how it has performed over the past two decades 16:32 - How to calculate the equity risk premium 23:44 - Why short-term forecasts are impossible to project accurately, but long-term forecasts are not 27:50 - Where Rob believes we are in the value cycle 44:03 - Why companies that get removed from the index tend to outperform those that get added 49:21 - How companies get added to the S&P 500 And so much more! Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members. Check out the Research Affiliates. Follow Rob on LinkedIn. Email Shawn at shawn@theinvestorspodcast.com to attend our free events in Omaha or visit this page. Follow Clay on Twitter. Check out all the books mentioned and discussed in our podcast episodes here. Enjoy ad-free episodes when you subscribe to our Premium Feed. NEW TO THE SHOW? Follow our official social media accounts: X (Twitter) | LinkedIn | Instagram | Facebook | TikTok. Check out our We Study Billionaires Starter Packs. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool. Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services. Stay up-to-date on financial markets and investing strategies through our daily newsletter, We Study Markets. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: Bluehost Fintool PrizePicks Vanta Onramp SimpleMining Fundrise TurboTax HELP US OUT! Help us reach new listeners by leaving us a rating and review on Spotify! It takes less than 30 seconds, and really helps our show grow, which allows us to bring on even better guests for you all! Thank you – we really appreciate it! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
Matthew Sweet is joined by guests including Dr Jack Symes, philosopher at Durham University; Professor Lyndsey Stonebridge, Interdisciplinary Chair of Humanities & Human Rights at the University of Birmingham; novelist Ruth Ware; Dr Oliver Scott Curry, Chief Science Officer at Kindness.org and Research Affiliate in the Anthropology Department at the University of Oxford; and campaigner Zrinka Bralo, Director of Migrants Organize.Topics include the classical philosophical problem of evil, the psychology of evil, Hannah Arendt's concept of the banality of evil, and the question of why the Devil gets the best lines in literature. Plus, we look at t6he work and legacy of social psychologist Philip Zimbardo, who devised the controversial Stanford Prison Experiment in 1971, and who died in October 2024.Producer: Luke Mulhall
Research Affiliates founder Rob Arnott reveals his latest findings on the stock market. Plus, Jack talks TJX and Target, and offers funnel cake advice. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices