Podcasts about CIO

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    Best podcasts about CIO

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    Latest podcast episodes about CIO

    Top Traders Unplugged
    OI20: Why Commodities Refuse to Trend Forever ft. Doug King

    Top Traders Unplugged

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 24, 2025 47:48 Transcription Available


    Moritz Siebert speaks with Doug King about what it really means to trade commodities through cycles, distortions, and stress. Drawing on decades at Cargill and more than twenty years running a commodities hedge fund, Doug explains why innovation keeps scarcity narratives in check, why commodities resist buy and hold logic, and how real edge comes from cash markets rather than futures screens. He reflects on defining trades in oil, nickel, and agriculture, the limits of volatility targeting, and the discipline required to survive violent squeezes. The result is a grounded account of conviction, risk control, and why commodities reward patience more than prediction.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Moritz on Twitter.Follow Doug on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Opening remarks and introduction to Top Traders Unplugged01:24 - Introducing Doug King and his background04:49 - From Cargill to hedge funds and the pull of commodities07:05 - Why the fund is purely discretionary and fundamentals driven09:50 - Team size, selectivity, and waiting for the right trades10:45 - Why commodities are cyclical and innovation breaks scarcity13:46 - Electrification and where long term excitement may lie15:37 - Defining edge in commodities trading18:12 - Physical delivery, convergence, and real market signals20:23

    The Real Investment Show Podcast
    12-23-25 Dollar Power, AI, and the New Financial Order - The Brent Johnson Inerview

    The Real Investment Show Podcast

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 23, 2025 58:15


    In this episode, Lance Roberts sits down with Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital, to break down what's really happening with the U.S. dollar, the global monetary system, and why AI is accelerating a geopolitical and economic power shift. If you're looking for big-picture insights on the future of the dollar, geopolitics, AI-driven capital flows, and where long-term investing tailwinds are forming—this is a must-watch. 0:00 - INTRO 0:56 - Dollar Pessimism is Everywhere 3:32 - Why the Dollar Loses Purchasing Power: Inflation 5:08 - How Reserve Currencies Work - Why the Dollar is the Global Reserve Currency 6:30 - Why Oil is Priced in Dollars 9:07 - Reserve Currency Storage - Rule of Law & Liquidity Stability; effects of Euro Conversion on Reserves 11:10 - Ronald Regan clip, "Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall" 13:00 - Why the Dollar needs not be too strong or too weak (Chart - US Dollar Index) 16:00 - The Debt based monetary system 16:42 - The Carry Trade 19:59 - The Dollar Milkshake Theory - 21:00 - What a Falling Dollar would indicate 22:00 - The Impact of Where Money is Being Spent for AI Buildout - the multiplier effect; will this attract more foreign capital into the US? 25:11 - AI is transformational - Separation of East from West is happening; outcome is existential to the US 26:22 - The Office of Strategic Capital - 27:07 - The Race to Win AI - leadership in the global economy 28:53 - Two hang ups - Power generation/transmission grid 29:46 - Looking for the investing tailwinds 31:23 - The Fed's Return to QE 35:08 - Stablecoin vs Bitcoin - Digital Token, linked to a specific asset or commodity; Bitcoin which suffers from volatility 38:14 - The Genius Act - official blessing of Stablecoin; geopolitical implications 39:24 - The potential to become a new Eurodollar market - the importance of sovereignty for a nation 42:58 - Using Money as a weapon 44:46 - Stablecoin Implications for Investors - impact on Treasuries 47:14 - Currency Manipulation - China vs U.S. 50:30 - AI is overpriced - Looking ahead: short term cautious; buy the dip; Energy assets, including nuclear; critical minerals are national security implications 52:08 - Precious Metals outlook: If you own them, don't sell them; 53:40 - Opportunity in Energy Sector; Will VanLowe/Quantum - Energy Demand vs available supply imbalance 54:34 - The LNG supply gap solution 56:25 - How to Find Brent Johnson Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Brent Johnson, CEO, Santiago Capital, Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QYUME1I-SDg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAug2oeXwuQUeSf8Hd6AFR5O9&index=4 ------- Our Previous show, "Bear Markets Are a Good Thing," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bdlhQgMthW4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "QE Is Coming: The 2008 Roots Of Fed Dominance" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/qe-is-coming-the-2008-roots-of-fed-dominance/ -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #BrentJohnson #USDollar #AIInvesting #GlobalMacro #FinancialMarkets

    Bankless
    Is the Crypto-Native Era Coming to an End? - Lessons from 10 Years in Crypto with Joey Krug, Founders Fund Partner

    Bankless

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 22, 2025


    Joey Krug (Founders Fund partner, former Pantera co-CIO, and Augur co-founder) returns to unpack whether the “crypto-native era” is fading as institutions and mainstream apps adopt crypto rails without adopting crypto culture.  We dig into prediction markets' breakout (and why Polymarket finally found product-market fit), the coming regulatory fights around market structure and “insider” edges, and what's next for founders building in a post-cypherpunk, distribution-first phase of crypto. ------

    Becker’s Healthcare Podcast
    Amy Trainor, CIO, Ochsner Health

    Becker’s Healthcare Podcast

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 22, 2025 13:27


    This episode, recorded live at the 10th Annual. Health IT + Digital Health + RCM Annual Meeting features Amy Trainor, CIO, Ochsner Health, who shares how the system is thoughtfully deploying AI across clinical, administrative, and virtual care settings while keeping clinicians, patients, and governance at the center of technology decisions.

    Technovation with Peter High (CIO, CTO, CDO, CXO Interviews)
    How Gallagher Built Enterprise AI on Culture and Data First

    Technovation with Peter High (CIO, CTO, CDO, CXO Interviews)

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 22, 2025 21:22


    What if the key to enterprise AI wasn’t a tool, but a mindset? Mark Bloom, Global CIO at AJ Gallagher, joins Technovation to share how the 70,000-person insurance giant is scaling AI by leading with data quality and cultural alignment—not flashy tools. In this episode, Bloom details: How Gallagher eliminated 800+ data silos to centralize insight and enable AI Why crowdsourcing use cases from employees unlocked adoption at scale The shift from efficiency gains to revenue-focused AI How culture helped overcome resistance to data consolidation His dual perspective as both CIO and board member

    Billion Dollar Backstory
    129: From a $5M Cold Call to a $1B Comeback: Cole Wilcox of Longboard Asset Management on the Fundraising Grind and Founder Resilience

    Billion Dollar Backstory

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 22, 2025 73:09


    Everyone loves a success story, but what we don't talk about enough is what it costs to get there.And what it's like before the money is wired or anyone cares. Before all of that, there was a guy with a phone, a thesis, and a long list of people telling him no.That guy was Cole Wilcox.In this episode, Stacy Havener sits down with Cole, CEO & CIO of Longboard Asset Management, to talk about what it really takes to build an investment firm when you don't start with pedigree, proximity, or institutional backing, just conviction and the willingness to keep going when quitting feels rational.In this episode, you'll hear:How one cold call turned into Longboard's first $5M Why founder-led fundraising is unavoidable in the early years, no matter how strong your strategy isWhat it feels like to hear “call me at $100M”… and then hear it again at $1BHow surviving multiple market crises permanently reshaped Cole's relationship with riskThe moment Longboard nearly shut down, and the structural pivot that kept the firm aliveThe real cost of broken partnerships (and why people issues end more firms than markets)What resilience actually looks like when walking away feels like the logical moveWhy staying power might be the most underrated edge a founder hasMore About Cole:Cole Wilcox, Chief Investment Officer at Longboard, has specialized in trend following investment strategies for over 20 years. As a co-author of award-winning research, he has been profiled in bestselling investment books, featured in major media outlets such as The Wall Street Journal, CNBC, and Bloomberg, and is a frequent guest on popular podcasts. Cole leads a highly accomplished team at Longboard, delivering innovative, low-correlation investment strategies that leverage trend following to capture market opportunities. ---Running a fund is hard enough.Ops shouldn't be.Meet the team that makes it easier. | billiondollarbackstory.com/ultimus- - -Thinking about expanding your investor base beyond the US? Not sure where to start? Take our quick quiz to find out if your firm is ready to go global and get all the info at billiondollarbackstory.com/gemcap

    Canaltech Podcast
    Alucinações de IA: por que a tecnologia inventa respostas

    Canaltech Podcast

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 22, 2025 19:29


    A inteligência artificial generativa já faz parte da rotina de empresas e profissionais, mas junto com a eficiência vêm riscos que nem sempre são óbvios. Um deles são as chamadas “alucinações de IA”, quando sistemas geram respostas falsas, inventam fatos, criam referências inexistentes ou erram informações com extrema convicção. Neste episódio do Podcast Canaltech, Fernanda Santos conversa com Guilherme Silveira, CIO do Grupo Alun, para explicar o que são as alucinações na prática, por que elas acontecem, quais impactos reais já causaram em empresas e decisões judiciais, e o que pode ser feito para reduzir esses erros no uso corporativo da tecnologia. A conversa também aborda responsabilidade legal, confiança excessiva nas respostas da IA e como desenvolver um olhar mais crítico para usar essas ferramentas de forma segura, consciente e responsável. Você também vai conferir: Sora avança na América Latina, mas Brasil fica de fora da lista, carro elétrico pode virar powerbank em apagões e especialistas recomendam desligar o Wi-Fi do celular fora de casa. Este podcast foi roteirizado e apresentado por Fernada Santos e contou com reportagens de Viviane França, Danielle Cassita e Lilian Sibila, sob coordenação de Anaísa Catucci. A trilha sonora é de Guilherme Zomer, a edição de Yuri Souza e a arte da capa é de Erick Teixeira.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Learn Italian with LearnAmo - Impariamo l'italiano insieme!
    Parla Italiano DAVVERO: Le Frasi Comuni che gli Italiani Usano Ogni Giorno

    Learn Italian with LearnAmo - Impariamo l'italiano insieme!

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 21, 2025


    Quando parli italiano, conoscere le espressioni giuste per ogni situazione è fondamentale quanto sapere la grammatica. Questo articolo ti mostra più di 70 frasi essenziali che gli italiani usano ogni giorno nelle conversazioni normali. Imparerai le espressioni pratiche per salutare, ringraziare, scusarti, chiedere aiuto e molto altro. 50+ Frasi Comuni da Usare in Conversazione in Italia Fase 1: Iniziare una Conversazione L'Importanza delle Domande Aperte Per iniziare bene una conversazione, devi usare domande aperte. Cosa significa? Sono domande che invitano l'altra persona a parlare e a raccontare qualcosa, non solo a dire "sì" o "no". Domande da evitare (sono troppo chiuse): 1. "Tutto bene?" 2. "Va tutto ok?" 3. "Sta bene?" (formale con Lei) Queste domande portano solo a risposte brevi come "sì" o "no", e poi la conversazione si blocca. Domande migliori (aprono la conversazione): 4. "Che mi racconti?" 5. "Come procede?" 6. "Come sta?" (formale) Con queste domande, l'altra persona deve raccontare qualcosa e parlare di più. Se vuoi davvero invitare qualcuno a parlare, usa queste espressioni molto utili: 7. "Che c'è di nuovo?" / 8. "Novità?" Queste sono perfette perché dicono "Raccontami tutto quello che è successo!" Fase 2: Rispondere Quando Ti Chiedono Come Stai Quando qualcuno ti chiede "Come stai?", devi scegliere la risposta giusta per la situazione. Risposte Positive 9. "Bene, grazie!" 10. "Tutto bene!" 11. "Benissimo!" 12. "Sto bene, e tu?" 13. "Alla grande!" (registro informale, significa "molto bene") Usa queste espressioni quando stai bene e vuoi comunicarlo. Risposte Neutre o Moderatamente Negative Attenzione: nei libri di italiano trovi sempre "così così", ma gli italiani quasi mai lo usano davvero! Ecco cosa dicono invece: 14. "Non troppo male" (vuol dire "non sto benissimo, ma va bene così") 15. "Boh, non benissimo" ("boh" mostra che non sei sicuro) 16. "Mah..." (dici solo questo con faccia perplessa – dice tutto senza parole!) 17. "Potrebbe andare meglio" (modo gentile per dire "non sto benissimo") 18. "Non è il massimo" (significa che le cose non vanno molto bene) 19. "Non è un disastro, ma potrebbe andare meglio" (versione più completa e onesta) Fase 3: Ringraziare Dire grazie è molto importante in italiano. Puoi usare espressioni diverse a seconda della situazione e di quanto formale vuoi essere. Espressioni di Ringraziamento 20. "Grazie!" (la forma base, sempre corretta) 21. "Grazie mille!" 22. "Grazie tante!" 23. "Ti ringrazio" / "La ringrazio" (più sincero e personale) 24. "Sei troppo gentile!" / "È troppo gentile!" (quando qualcuno è molto gentile con te) 25. "Non dovevi!" (quando ricevi un regalo inaspettato) Fase 4: Rispondere a "Grazie" In italiano, quando qualcuno ti dice "grazie", devi sempre rispondere! Non puoi restare in silenzio, altrimenti sembra scortese. Risposte Appropriate ai Ringraziamenti 26. "Prego!" (la più usata in tutta Italia) 27. "Di niente!" 28. "Figurati!" (informale) 29. "Si figuri!" (formale) 30. "Il piacere è tutto mio" (molto educato ed elegante) 31. "Non c'è problema!" / "Tranquillo!" (molto casual) Fase 5: Scusarsi e Rispondere alle Scuse Tutti dobbiamo chiedere scusa qualche volta – quando arriviamo in ritardo, facciamo un errore o creiamo un problema. Ecco come farlo: Formulare le Scuse 32. "Scusa!" / "Scusi!" (formale) 33. "Mi dispiace tanto!" 34. "Scusami per il ritardo" / "Mi scusi per il ritardo" (formale) 35. "Chiedo scusa" (più formale) 36. "Perdonami!" / "Mi perdoni!" (formale) Quando qualcuno si scusa con te, devi rispondere anche qui! Accettare le Scuse 37. "Non ti preoccupare!" / "Non si preoccupi!" (formale) 38. "Non fa niente!" / "Figurati!" 39. "Nessun problema!" Fase 6: Chiedere Aiuto o Informazioni Quando hai bisogno di aiuto, è meglio usare il condizionale ("potresti", "potrebbe") per essere più educato. Rende la richiesta meno diretta. Formulare Richieste di Aiuto 40. "Potresti indicarmi la strada per...?" 41. "Potrebbe indicarmi la strada per...?" (formale) 42. "Potresti darmi una mano?" (informale) 43. "Potrebbe darmi una mano?" (formale) 44. "Potresti/Potrebbe aiutarmi, per favore?" Nota importante: "Darmi una mano" è un'espressione che significa semplicemente "aiutarmi". Gli italiani la usano moltissimo! Fase 7: Rispondere a una Richiesta di Aiuto Quando qualcuno ti chiede aiuto, le tue risposte dipendono da una cosa semplice: puoi aiutarlo oppure no? Se Puoi Aiutare 45. "Sì, certo!" 46. "Volentieri!" 47. "Con piacere!" Se Non Puoi Aiutare (o Non Sei Sicuro) 48. "Mi dispiace, non posso aiutarti/aiutarla" 49. "Non ne sono sicuro/a" / "Non ne ho idea" / "Boh!" (molto informale) Fase 8: Offrire Qualcosa e Rispondere a un'Offerta Gli italiani amano offrire caffè, cibo e aiuto! Devi sapere come offrire qualcosa, e anche come accettare o rifiutare in modo educato. Formulare un'Offerta 50. "Ti va un caffè?" / "Le va un caffè?" (formale) 51. "Posso offrirti qualcosa?" / "Posso offrirLe qualcosa?" (formale) 52. "Vuoi/Vuole bere qualcosa?" 53. "Accomodati!" / "Si accomodi!" (per invitare qualcuno a sedersi - formale) Accettare un'Offerta 54. "Sì, grazie!" / "Volentieri!" 55. "Molto gentile, grazie!" 56. "Non mi dispiacerebbe!" (significa "sì, mi piacerebbe") 57. "Perché no?" (modo informale per dire "sì") Rifiutare in Modo Educato 58. "No, grazie, sei/è troppo gentile!" 59. "Grazie mille, ma ho già mangiato/bevuto" 60. "Magari un'altra volta, grazie!" Fase 9: Esprimere Accordo Quando qualcuno dice qualcosa e tu pensi "Esatto! Hai ragione!", come lo dici in italiano? Espressioni di Accordo 61. "Assolutamente!" 62. "Esattamente!" 63. "Verissimo!" 64. "Sono completamente d'accordo (con te/lei)" 65. "Chiaro!" / "Lo ammetto!" (utilizzato particolarmente dai giovani) Curiosità: "Lo ammetto" letteralmente significa "riconoscere qualcosa", ma i giovani lo usano così: "Quel film è bellissimo!" – "Eh sì, lo ammetto!" Come modo per dire "sono d'accordo". Fase 10: Esprimere Disaccordo E se invece NON sei d'accordo? Devi fare attenzione a quanto vuoi essere diretto, in base alla situazione. Formulare il Disaccordo 66. "Non sono d'accordo (con te/Lei)" 67. "Non è il mio modo di vedere le cose" (educato e diplomatico) 68. "Ma stai scherzando?" / "Ma sei pazzo/a?" (attenzione! Molto informale, usa solo con amici stretti!) Fase 11: Esprimere Opinioni in Modo Neutro e Interrompere Educatamente A volte non vuoi essere troppo diretto, oppure devi cambiare argomento senza sembrare scortese. Ecco come fare: Esprimere Incertezza 69. "Forse..." / "Può darsi..." 70. "Dipende..." (molto usato!) 71. "Non saprei..." 72. "Mah, non sono convinto/a" (quando hai dubbi) Interrompere o Cambiare Argomento 73. "Scusa se ti interrompo, ma..." / "Mi scusi se La interrompo, ma..." (formale) 74. "Posso dire una cosa?" 75. "A proposito..." (per cambiare argomento in modo naturale) 76. "Comunque..." (anche questo per cambiare argomento) Nota utile: Gli italiani usano "comunque" e "a proposito" tantissimo! Sono come ponti che ti permettono di passare da un argomento all'altro senza problemi. Fase 12: Concludere e Salutare La conversazione è stata piacevole, ma ora devi andare. Come concludi in modo naturale? Segnalare che Vuoi Concludere 77. "È stato un piacere vederti/vederla" 78. "Beh, credo che sia meglio andare, ho molte cose da fare" Saluti Finali 79. "Ciao!" (informale) 80. "Arrivederci!" / "ArrivederLa!" (formale) 81. "Buona giornata!" 82. "A presto!" (ci vediamo tra giorni o settimane) 83. "A dopo!" / "A più tardi!" (ci vediamo oggi) 84. "Alla prossima!" 85. "Abbi/Abbia cura di te/sé" (molto carino) 86. "Salutami la tua famiglia!" Curiosità interessante: Gli italiani, anche se amano la loro lingua, usano spesso parole inglesi nei saluti! Sentirai molto spesso: 87. "Bye!" / 88. "Bye bye!" Quindi puoi usarlo anche tu senza problemi. Approfondimento: Elementi per una Conversazione Autentica Parlare del Tempo: L'Argomento Preferito degli Italiani Gli italiani adorano parlare del tempo! Ogni conversazione, prima o poi, arriva a questo argomento. È un modo facile per iniziare o continuare una chiacchierata: "Che brutto tempo con questa pioggia, che depressione!" "E da te che tempo fa?" "C'è il sole almeno?" "Qui piove da tre giorni..." Parlare del tempo è considerato un argomento sicuro quando non conosci bene la persona con cui parli. È perfetto per iniziare una conversazione! I Riempitivi: Come Rendere il Tuo Italiano Più Naturale I riempitivi sono piccole parole che gli italiani usano mentre parlano. Non hanno un significato preciso, ma rendono la conversazione più naturale e fluida. Ecco i più comuni: RiempitivoFunzione Comunicativa"Allora..."Iniziare un enunciato o prendere tempo per formulare il pensiero"Dunque..."Funzione analoga a "allora", con registro leggermente più formale"Insomma..."Riassumere o esprimere difficoltà nell'articolazione del pensiero"Cioè..."Riformulare o fornire chiarimenti aggiuntivi"Praticamente..."Semplificare una spiegazione complessa"Tipo..."Introdurre esempi (registro informale giovanile) Esempio di utilizzo integrato: "Allora, praticamente dovrei andare al supermercato, cioè, devo comprare un po' di cose, tipo latte, pane, insomma, le cose base!" Vedi? Suona immediatamente più italiano! Non usarne troppi, ma qualcuno qua e là ti farà sembrare più naturale.

    Top Traders Unplugged
    SI379: The Illusion of Safety in a Fully Invested Market ft. Cem Karsan

    Top Traders Unplugged

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 20, 2025 70:35 Transcription Available


    Niels and Cem reflect on a year marked by concentration, confidence, and growing structural fragility beneath calm markets. They examine extreme positioning, record low cash levels, and the quiet dominance of reflexive flows over fundamentals. Cem challenges common readings of volatility, explains where real fear hides in options markets, and outlines why tail exposure becomes critical late in cycles. The discussion broadens into portfolio construction, questioning the legacy of 60/40 investing and the illusion of diversification built during falling-rate decades. Grounded in history, market structure, and political cycles, this conversation offers a disciplined framework for navigating regimes where leverage, policy, and inequality quietly redefine risk.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor Series00:49 - Geopolitical tensions beneath the surface of markets02:07 - Extreme bullish sentiment and record low cash levels04:12 - Margin use, positioning, and why this setup is fragile06:07 - Why the VIX fails as a true fear indicator11:48 - Buffett's concentration and risk management through quality16:27 - Leverage, Sharpe ratios, and misunderstood diversification21:02 - Trend following performance and late year positioning23:48 - Positioning, reflexivity, and market microstructure28:25 - Volatility traps and convexity before stress events31:06...

    Guggenheim Macro Markets
    Episode 78: The Investing Outlook for 2026

    Guggenheim Macro Markets

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 19, 2025 34:30


    Anne Walsh, CIO of Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, joins Macro Markets to discuss portfolio strategy within the context of our 2026 outlook for growth, inflation, monetary policy, private credit, and the impact of AI on markets and the economy. In this complex landscape, she makes the case for why she believes now is not a time for sitting on the sidelines.Related Content:The Risk Mitigation Advantage in Active Fixed-Income ManagementWhy active has the potential to outperform passive in fixed incomeRead Now2026 Outlook for Fixed-Income and EquitiesAnne Walsh, CIO of Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, joins CNBC to share her 2026 market outlook and insights on the December Federal Open Market Committee meeting.Watch NowMacro Markets Podcast Episode 77: Agency MBS: From Zero to Hero How Agency MBS shifted in the risk-reward equation and the opportunity going forward.Listen to Macro MarketsInvesting involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. In general, the value of a fixed-income security falls when interest rates rise and rises when interest rates fall. Longer term bonds are more sensitive to interest rate changes and subject to greater volatility than those with shorter maturities. High yield and unrated debt securities are at a greater risk of default than investment grade bonds and may be less liquid, which may increase volatility. Private debt investments are generally considered illiquid and not quoted on any exchange; thus they are difficult to value. The process of valuing investments for which reliable market quotations are not available is based on inherent uncertainties and may not be accurate. Further, the level of discretion used by an investment manager to value private debt securities could lead to conflicts of interest.This material is distributed for informational or educational purposes only and should not be considered a recommendation of any particular security, strategy, or investment product, or as investing advice of any kind. This material is not provided in a fiduciary capacity, may not be relied upon for or in connection with the making of investment decisions, and does not constitute a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. The content contained herein is not intended to be and should not be construed as legal or tax advice and/or a legal opinion. Always consult a financial, tax and/or legal professional regarding your specific situation.This material contains opinions of the author but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners or its subsidiaries. The author's opinions are subject to change without notice. Forward-looking statements, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and non-proprietary research and other sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not assured as to accuracy. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Guggenheim Partners, LLC. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information.Guggenheim Investments...

    Campus Technology Insider
    Making It Easy: How Agentic AI Enables Seamless Digital Experiences at USF

    Campus Technology Insider

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 19, 2025 30:07


    In this episode of the Campus Technology Insider Podcast, Editor-in-Chief Rhea Kelly sits down with Sidney Fernandes, CIO, and VP of Digital Experiences at the University of South Florida. They discuss the impact of agentic AI in higher education, focusing on USF's initiatives to make technology and workflows user-friendly. Topics include the formation of the Bellini College of Artificial Intelligence, Cybersecurity and Computing, strategies for integrating AI to improve student and faculty experiences, and the importance of security, compliance, and data governance in AI deployment. In addition, they explore how USF leverages student ambassadors to scale AI literacy and solutions across its campuses. 00:00 Introduction and Guest Welcome 00:30 Sydney Fernandez's Background and Role at USF 01:10 USF's Technology Strategy: Making It Easy 02:44 Digital Experiences at USF 05:33 AI Initiatives and Early Goals 13:32 Scaling AI with Student Ambassadors 23:44 Challenges and Lessons Learned 26:08 Future of AI at USF 29:19 Conclusion and Farewell Resource links: GenAI at USF Bellini College of Artificial Intelligence, Cybersecurity and Computing Music: Mixkit Duration: 30 minutes Transcript (coming soon)

    SOS BFF, par JUJU, 12 ans
    Help, je ne sais pas quoi faire comme métier plus tard !

    SOS BFF, par JUJU, 12 ans

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 19, 2025 5:25


    Soukaina est en 4e, elle ne sait pas encore quel métier elle aimerait faire plus tard et ça l'inquiète. Pourtant, elle n'est pas la seule, car 1 élève sur 2 est toujours dans la même situation… au début de la classe de terminale. Juju et sa team de choc vont l'aider à faire le point… et à relativiser ! Dans cet épisode, tu vas découvrir de super astuces pour y voir plus clair sur ton avenir professionnel, que des stages sont prévus au cours de ta scolarité pour découvrir une profession qui te ferait envie, mais aussi qu'on peut exercer plusieurs métiers différents dans sa vie ! CréditsDirection éditoriale : Aurélya Guerrero. Scénario : Sarah Barthère. Réalisation : Qude. Avec les voix de Candice Sansano, Augustine Pouplin et Alexia Neveu. Création visuelle : Emma Tissier. Responsable marketing : Jean-Luc Monchy.Un podcast de Milan presse 2025. Droits réservés.Hébergé par Ausha. Visitez ausha.co/politique-de-confidentialite pour plus d'informations.

    The Best of the Money Show
    Market commentary with Zwelakhe Mnguni: 19th December 2025

    The Best of the Money Show

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 19, 2025 4:40 Transcription Available


    Joining presenter Stephen Grootes to talk about the current state of the global markets is CIO at Benguela Global Fund Managers, Zwelakhe Mnguni. The Money Show is a podcast hosted by well-known journalist and radio presenter, Stephen Grootes. He explores the latest economic trends, business developments, investment opportunities, and personal finance strategies. Each episode features engaging conversations with top newsmakers, industry experts, financial advisors, entrepreneurs, and politicians, offering you thought-provoking insights to navigate the ever-changing financial landscape.    Thank you for listening to a podcast from The Money Show Listen live Primedia+ weekdays from 18:00 and 20:00 (SA Time) to The Money Show with Stephen Grootes broadcast on 702 https://buff.ly/gk3y0Kj and CapeTalk https://buff.ly/NnFM3Nk For more from the show, go to https://buff.ly/7QpH0jY or find all the catch-up podcasts here https://buff.ly/PlhvUVe Subscribe to The Money Show Daily Newsletter and the Weekly Business Wrap here https://buff.ly/v5mfetc The Money Show is brought to you by Absa     Follow us on social media   702 on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/TalkRadio702 702 on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@talkradio702 702 on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/talkradio702/ 702 on X: https://x.com/CapeTalk 702 on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@radio702   CapeTalk on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CapeTalk CapeTalk on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@capetalk CapeTalk on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ CapeTalk on X: https://x.com/Radio702 CapeTalk on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@CapeTalk567 See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Lance Roberts' Real Investment Hour
    12-18-25 Is the 60-40 Portfolio Dead?

    Lance Roberts' Real Investment Hour

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 18, 2025 54:34


    For decades, the 60/40 portfolio—stocks and bonds—served as the foundation of balanced investing. Lance Roberts and Michael Lebowitz examine the growing global forces reshaping markets. While Wall Street has remained fixated on AI hyperscalers, major developments abroad are increasingly driving returns and risk. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Inflation Report Preview - Where's the Fed's Soft Landing? 3:05 - Markets working Through the Chop 9:56 - Top 10 Christmas Movies 13:24 - Inflation Expectations (Preview) 14:35 - The Fed Ends QT 20:35 - JP Morgan's Liquidity Crunch 22:53 - Is the Economy Slowing More than They Think? 24:03 - Is the 60/40 Portfolio Model Dead? 26:07 - CAPE-10 Predictions 27:05 - The All-weather Portfolio - Why to Own Bonds 31:31 - Double Digit Environment is Unsustainable 32:33 - How Are Bonds Not Safe?? 34:42 - BitCoin Does Not Belong in Your "Safe" Bucket 37:29 - Safe Money Bucket Composition 42:43 - Why Central Banks Hold Gold 48:15 - Bonds vs Real Estate 51:23 - Diversification Matters 52:01 - A note about REIT's Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5XBlkxO7lfI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Oversold After Key Support Break," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ITeHTYtt1Q&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Watch our previous show, "Q&A Wednesday: Live Market Questions & Investor Insights," here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yJV-vnHx4Eg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketVolatility #TechnicalAnalysis #OversoldMarkets #PortfolioManagement #SectorRotation #GlobalMarkets #PortfolioRisk #AssetAllocation #BondMarkets #MacroOutlook

    The Real Investment Show Podcast
    12-18-25 Is the 60/40 Portfolio Dead? Global Risks & Opportunities

    The Real Investment Show Podcast

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 18, 2025 54:35


    For decades, the 60/40 portfolio—stocks and bonds—served as the foundation of balanced investing. Lance Roberts and Michael Lebowitz examine the growing global forces reshaping markets. While Wall Street has remained fixated on AI hyperscalers, major developments abroad are increasingly driving returns and risk. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Inflation Report Preview - Where's the Fed's Soft Landing? 3:05 - Markets working Through the Chop 9:56 - Top 10 Christmas Movies 13:24 - Inflation Expectations (Preview) 14:35 - The Fed Ends QT 20:35 - JP Morgan's Liquidity Crunch 22:53 - Is the Economy Slowing More than They Think? 24:03 - Is the 60/40 Portfolio Model Dead? 26:07 - CAPE-10 Predictions 27:05 - The All-weather Portfolio - Why to Own Bonds 31:31 - Double Digit Environment is Unsustainable 32:33 - How Are Bonds Not Safe?? 34:42 - BitCoin Does Not Belong in Your "Safe" Bucket 37:29 - Safe Money Bucket Composition 42:43 - Why Central Banks Hold Gold 48:15 - Bonds vs Real Estate 51:23 - Diversification Matters 52:01 - A note about REIT's Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5XBlkxO7lfI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Oversold After Key Support Break," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ITeHTYtt1Q&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Watch our previous show, "Q&A Wednesday: Live Market Questions & Investor Insights," here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yJV-vnHx4Eg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketVolatility #TechnicalAnalysis #OversoldMarkets #PortfolioManagement #SectorRotation #GlobalMarkets #PortfolioRisk #AssetAllocation #BondMarkets #MacroOutlook

    Vaughan Nelson Investment Management
    Ep.328: (12.18.25) Broadening 2025 and 2026 Set Up

    Vaughan Nelson Investment Management

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 18, 2025 5:53


    Chris Wallis, CEO and CIO at Vaughan Nelson, joins the podcast to discuss the broadening of 2025's markets and returns and his near term 2026 outlook.

    Insigneo Talks
    Weekly Updates from the CIO Office (12.16.25)

    Insigneo Talks

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 18, 2025 5:29


    Explore Insigneo's Weekly Tuesday Morning Podcast for the latest market and economic updates by our CIO, Ahmed Riesgo.

    Top Traders Unplugged
    GM92: Politics in an Age of Hard Borders and Rising Hegemons ft. Gary Gerstle

    Top Traders Unplugged

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 17, 2025 70:02 Transcription Available


    In this conversation, the veneer of political continuity is stripped back to reveal a world drifting toward harder borders, sharper identities and a reshaping of power once thought unthinkable. Gary Gerstle traces the erosion of the neoliberal order and the rise of a political logic that places national strength above universal norms. He examines how affordability stress, authoritarian impulses and fragmented parties are redrawing economic life and democratic expectations. The discussion widens into a global map of competing hegemons and the uneasy choices facing Europe and the United States. What emerges is a portrait of a century unsettled, yet not without agency.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on LinkedIn.Follow Gary on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Opening remarks on a shifting world and national security visions00:44 - Introduction to Top Traders Unplugged and context for the discussion01:40 - Framing the global macro environment and the need for deeper perspectives02:24 - Introducing Gary Gerstle and his work on political and economic orders04:00 - Defining the end of the neoliberal era and what has replaced it07:02 - The tension between authoritarian forces and liberal democratic hopes08:17 - Democracy under strain and the implications of Trump's second term10:06 - Shock, discipline and the early strategic force of Trump...

    Lance Roberts' Real Investment Hour
    12-17-25 Q&A Wednesday - Live Market Questions & Investor Insights

    Lance Roberts' Real Investment Hour

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 17, 2025 62:09


    Today's Q&A Wednesday is driven entirely by live YouTube chat questions, covering the market topics investors are most focused on right now. Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff address real-time concerns around market volatility, Federal Reserve policy, interest rates, inflation, portfolio risk, asset allocation, and year-end positioning—without hype or speculation. This interactive session is designed to help investors better understand what matters, what doesn't, and how markets typically behave during periods of uncertainty. Rather than making predictions, we focus on context, probabilities, and risk management—answering your questions as they come in live. If you have a market question, join the conversation in the chat. If you're watching the replay, timestamps and chapter markers are included for easy navigation. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Economic Data Disappoints 5:50 - Markets Re-Test 50-DMA 11:26 - Reindeer & Dwarfs 13:54 - Volatility Commentary 21:23 - Effects of the One Big Beautiful Bill on Charitable Donations 24:37 - Buybacks vs Dividends 26:42 - Expectations for Gold and Silver in 2026 33:25 - Economic Summit Tease 34:41 - TLT Shorts & Speculative Bets 37:37 - Best Portfolio Allocations for 2026 39:35 - What Investments Should NOT Be Held in a Roth IRA? 41:54 - RSI vs Value, MACD, & Volume Trading? 45:38 - Retiring at 63? 48:07 - Dealing with Future Risk 51:50 - Sectors and Stocks for 2026 56:07 - 403b's vs 457's 57:58 - Energy Plays for 2026 Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yJV-vnHx4Eg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Consolidate After 50-DMA Test," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X4PjkAGK804&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Watch our previous show, "Year-End Checklist for Young Investors," here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Wyudzh3naw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketOutlook #StockMarketToday #TechnicalAnalysis #YearEndMarkets #RiskManagement #MarketQandA #InvestorQuestions #MarketVolatility #FedPolicy #RiskManagement

    Lance Roberts' Real Investment Hour
    12-16-25 Year-End Checklist for Young Investors

    Lance Roberts' Real Investment Hour

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 17, 2025 45:55


    As the year comes to a close, young investors have a unique opportunity to make small moves that can compound into meaningful long-term results. In this episode, we walk through a practical, end-of-year checklist designed for early-career investors who want to stay organized, tax-aware, and financially disciplined. Lance Roberts & Jonathan Penn cover how to confirm you're capturing all available employer benefits, including 401(k) or 403(b) matches and vesting schedules. We also discuss how to think about Roth IRAs, HSAs, and other tax-advantaged accounts early in your career—when time is often your greatest asset. On the investment side, we review simple allocation checks, diversification risks, and why staying invested through volatility matters. We also highlight tax-smart considerations like capital gains awareness, loss harvesting, and stock-compensation planning for ESPPs and RSUs. Finally, we address the foundational elements of financial stability: emergency savings, cash management, credit health, and high-interest debt. This checklist is not about speculation—it's about building durable financial habits that support long-term wealth creation. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Wealth by Brackets 3:39 - Will the Santa Rally be Delayed? 9:02 - Open Enrollment & Benefits Tips 16:12 - 401k/IRA Contributions & Employer Matches 24:26 - Investment Choices in 401k's 26:56 - Tracking Down old 401k's 29:38 - Understanding Vesting Schedules 32:29 - Catching Up in 401k 33:58 - Wills, Estate Plans, & Beneficiary Designations 36:26 - Checking for Leakage 39:55 - Annual Credit Report Review 41:18 - Comniog Attractions Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Wyudzh3naw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Data, Volatility & Santa Rally Risk," is here: https://youtu.be/gnorFZc1qM8 ------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Watch our previous show, "Facing Your Financial Ghosts," here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ypp_HKgciow&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketOutlook #SantaClausRally #Volatility #RiskManagement #StockMarketAnalysis #YoungInvestors #PersonalFinance #YearEndPlanning #InvestingBasics #FinancialWellness

    The Real Investment Show Podcast
    12-17-25 Q&A Wednesday: Live Market Questions & Investor Insights

    The Real Investment Show Podcast

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 17, 2025 62:10


    Today's Q&A Wednesday is driven entirely by live YouTube chat questions, covering the market topics investors are most focused on right now. Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff address real-time concerns around market volatility, Federal Reserve policy, interest rates, inflation, portfolio risk, asset allocation, and year-end positioning—without hype or speculation. This interactive session is designed to help investors better understand what matters, what doesn't, and how markets typically behave during periods of uncertainty. Rather than making predictions, we focus on context, probabilities, and risk management—answering your questions as they come in live. If you have a market question, join the conversation in the chat. If you're watching the replay, timestamps and chapter markers are included for easy navigation. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Economic Data Disappoints 5:50 - Markets Re-Test 50-DMA 11:26 - Reindeer & Dwarfs 13:54 - Volatility Commentary 21:23 - Effects of the One Big Beautiful Bill on Charitable Donations 24:37 - Buybacks vs Dividends 26:42 - Expectations for Gold and Silver in 2026 33:25 - Economic Summit Tease 34:41 - TLT Shorts & Speculative Bets 37:37 - Best Portfolio Allocations for 2026 39:35 - What Investments Should NOT Be Held in a Roth IRA? 41:54 - RSI vs Value, MACD, & Volume Trading? 45:38 - Retiring at 63? 48:07 - Dealing with Future Risk 51:50 - Sectors and Stocks for 2026 56:07 - 403b's vs 457's 57:58 - Energy Plays for 2026 Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yJV-vnHx4Eg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Consolidate After 50-DMA Test," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X4PjkAGK804&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Watch our previous show, "Year-End Checklist for Young Investors," here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Wyudzh3naw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketOutlook #StockMarketToday #TechnicalAnalysis #YearEndMarkets #RiskManagement #MarketQandA #InvestorQuestions #MarketVolatility #FedPolicy #RiskManagement

    Enterprise Software Innovators
    Rebuilding Enterprise IT for the AI Epoch with Former Avanade CIO Ronald White

    Enterprise Software Innovators

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 17, 2025 27:36


    On the 60th episode of Enterprise AI Innovators, hosts Evan Reiser (CEO and co-founder, Abnormal AI) and Saam Motamedi (Greylock Partners) speak to Ronald White, the former CIO of Avanade. Ronald brings deep experience leading global enterprise IT at Avanade and shares actionable lessons from orchestrating large‑scale AI adoption across business functions.Quick hits from Ronald:On moving beyond surface-level AI: "What are we going to get past these little parlor tricks and actually do something that impacts the enterprise?"On proving value through AI adoption: "A lawyer using general AI technology will 100 percent of the time beat a lawyer who is not. Period. End of statement."On early enterprise wins with AI: "You're changing the game right away... and so if you don't stay on top of it and iterate and iterate and iterate, you lose."Recent Book Recommendation: Destiny of the Republic by Candice Millard--Like what you hear? Leave us a review and subscribe to the show on Apple, Google, Spotify, Stitcher, or wherever you listen to podcasts.Enterprise AI Innovators is a show where top technology executives share how AI is transforming the enterprise. Discover more great lessons from tech leaders and experts in emerging AI technologies at https://www.enterprisesoftware.blog/Enterprise AI Innovators is produced by Josh Meer

    Cisco Champion Radio
    Leading Innovation from the Inside: An unfiltered Cisco CIO Conversation

    Cisco Champion Radio

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 17, 2025 26:54


    Join host Melissa Barr for an in-depth conversation with Fletcher Previn, CIO of Cisco, as he reveals how AI is fundamentally reshaping IT and the future of work. Discover Cisco IT's mission to enable 10x employee productivity and learn about our “customer zero” philosophy—acting as the proving ground for products designed to help large enterprises build, deploy, and manage their infrastructure. Get ready for a fascinating, inside look at how Cisco is building, securing, and making AI work every single day for our employees, customers, and partners. Speakers Melissa Barr - Senior Manager, Cisco Proof Points Fletcher Previn, CIO, CIsco

    Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition
    Asian Stocks Slip After Sluggish US Jobs Data, China Chip IPO

    Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 17, 2025 23:53 Transcription Available


    Asian shares tracked Wall Street at the open to post a modest decline after sluggish US jobs data did little to boost bets on further interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. For more on the latest reading on the US Jobs data, we spoke to Christopher Zook, Chairman & CIO of CAZ Investments. Chen Weiliang's chip startup, MetaX Integrated Circuits Shanghai Co., will list in Shanghai with a valuation of $5.9 billion, making Chen close to emerging as a billionaire. For more on the overall AI trade, we heard from Daniel Lam, Head of Equity Strategy at Standard Chartered Wealth Solutions. He spoke to Bloomberg's Avril Hong.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Packet Pushers - Full Podcast Feed
    HS121: Digital Security Teammates: From Fantasy to Operational Reality (Sponsored)

    Packet Pushers - Full Podcast Feed

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 16, 2025 32:50


    Your next security teammate might not be a traditional hire — it could be a Digital Security Teammate (DST),” says Secure.com CEO Uzair Gadit. In this sponsored episode, Uzair explains the concept of a DST and how it differs from an AI SOC. He highlights the operational and business benefits of deploying DST, including improved... Read more »

    Your Money. Your Mission.
    New Year Financial Planning: Key Strategies for 2026 Success

    Your Money. Your Mission.

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 16, 2025 27:35


    In this episode, guest host and CIO, Dominic Ceci, SVP Private Client Banking, Luke Kasten and SVP Portfolio Manager, Eric Bernal discuss the essential steps for reviewing and optimizing your financial strategies as a new year begins. They cover how to assess your finances, manage cash flow and debt, maximize retirement contributions, tax planning and ensure you have adequate insurance coverage. This episode emphasizes the importance of an intentional financial plan to align with your personal goals, navigate market conditions and build a secure future.Submit a question on Your Money. Your Mission.

    Disruptive Forces in Investing
    Solving for 2026: Policy Crosscurrents, AI, and Where to Position Now

    Disruptive Forces in Investing

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 16, 2025 26:59


    Amid policy crosscurrents and accelerating AI adoption, investors face a backdrop where productivity tailwinds and easing biases in some regions contrast with tougher conditions elsewhere. So how should investors lean into duration, balance AI enablers versus adopters, and pursue compelling private markets opportunities?   On this episode of Disruptive Forces, host Anu Rajakumar sits down with Shannon Saccocia, CIO for Wealth, and Maya Bhandari, CIO for Multi-Asset EMEA, to unpack Neuberger's Solving for 2026 market outlook. Together, they cover AI's next phase, multi-sector fixed income positioning, and the role of secondaries and co-investments—while outlining risks from policy missteps to power constraints and credit.     This communication is provided for informational and educational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. Information is obtained from sources deemed reliable, but there is no representation or warranty as to its accuracy, completeness or reliability. This communication is not directed at any investor or category of investors and should not be regarded as investment advice or a suggestion to engage in or refrain from any investment-related course of action. Neuberger Berman is not providing this material in a fiduciary capacity and has a financial interest in the sale of its products and services. Investment decisions should be made based on an investor's individual objectives and circumstances and in consultation with his or her advisors. All information is current as of the date of this material and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Neuberger Berman products and services may not be available in all jurisdictions or to all client types. This material is not intended as a formal research report and should not be relied upon as a basis for making an investment decision. The firm, its employees and advisory accounts may hold positions of any companies discussed. This material may include estimates, outlooks, projections and other "forward-looking statements." Due to a variety of factors, actual events or market behavior may differ significantly from any views expressed. Investing entails risks, including possible loss of principal. Indexes are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.    This material is being issued on a limited basis through various global subsidiaries and affiliates of Neuberger Berman Group LLC. Please visit www.nb.com/disclosure-global-communications for the specific entities and jurisdictional limitations and restrictions.    The "Neuberger Berman" name and logo are registered service marks of Neuberger Berman Group LLC.  © 2025 Neuberger Berman Group LLC. All rights reserved.

    Behind The Numbers
    How Human Capital Metrics Shape Portfolios and Valuations – Kristof Gleich

    Behind The Numbers

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 16, 2025 30:24 Transcription Available


    In this episode of Behind The Numbers With Dave Bookbinder, I'm joined by Kristof Gleich, President and Chief Investment Officer at Harbor Capital Advisors, for a deep dive into the human capital factor and its impact on business value and investment performance. Kristof explains how Harbor's partnership with Irrational Capital led to the development of the HAPI ETFs and walks through the seven subfactors that make up the human capital score: organizational effectiveness, innovation, direct management, alignment, engagement, emotional connection, and extrinsic rewards. We get into the data behind the factor, including the use of large-scale employee sentiment surveys and proprietary analytics, the index construction process that identifies the top 150 companies, and the annual reconstitution methodology. Kristof also shares performance insights – from Morningstar recognition to how HAPI has compared with the S&P 500. We also talk about why this factor has the potential to generate real alpha and how investors, private equity firms, and valuation professionals are beginning to incorporate human capital metrics into underwriting and deal analysis. If you're interested in how people truly drive enterprise value, how human capital data can shape portfolios, and what this means for investors, advisors, and dealmakers, this episode offers practical, data-driven insights you can use. About Our Guest: Kristof Gleich is the president and CIO of Harbor Capital Advisors, Inc. Kristof oversees all Investment, Distribution & Marketing and Executive Office functions at Harbor. He provides insight while helping lead Harbor's strategic growth plan. Prior to joining Harbor, Kristof was a managing director and global head of manager selection at JP Morgan Chase & Co. He received a B.S. in Physics from University of Bristol. Kristof is a CFA® charterholder and is FINRA Series 7 and 63 licensed. About the Host: Dave Bookbinder is known as an expert in business valuation and he is the person that business owners and entrepreneurs reach out to when they need to know what their most important assets are worth. Known as a collaborative adviser, Dave has served thousands of client companies of all sizes and industries.  Dave is the author of two #1 best-selling books about the impact of human capital (PEOPLE!) on the valuation of a business enterprise called The NEW ROI: Return On Individuals & The NEW ROI: Going Behind The Numbers.  He's on a mission to change the conversation about how the accounting world recognizes the value of people's contributions to a business enterprise, and to quantify what every CEO on the planet claims: “Our people are this company's most valuable asset.” Dave's book, A Valuation Toolbox for Business Owners and Their Advisors: Things Every Business Owner Should Know, was recognized as a top new release in Business and Valuation and is designed to provide practical insights and tools to help understand what really drives business value, how to prepare for an exit, and just make better decisions. He's also the host of the highly rated Behind The Numbers With Dave Bookbinder business podcast which is enjoyed in more than 100 countries.

    Coffee w/#The Freight Coach
    1348. #TFCP - Cybercrime in Trucking Is Evolving - What 2026 Means for All Parties!

    Coffee w/#The Freight Coach

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 16, 2025 35:23


    How exposed is your trucking operation to cybercrime right now, and are you relying too much on trust and automation? Listen to our guest today, Artie Crawford of NMFTA, breaking down the real cybersecurity threats facing transportation. The biggest takeaway is simple: no fleet, broker, or carrier is too small to be targeted! We discuss how AI-driven cyber fraud, business email compromise, and fake load schemes are hitting trucking companies hard, why small companies are often the most vulnerable, and how multi-person verification, cybersecurity training, and multi-factor authentication can dramatically reduce risk! 2026 NMFTA Cybersecurity Trends Report: https://bit.ly/4oYPTds   About Artie Crawford Artie Crawford, CISSP, CISM, is the Director of Cybersecurity at the National Motor Freight Traffic Association, Inc. (NMFTA)™. Artie is a seasoned professional with extensive experience in cybersecurity strategy and deep technical expertise in addressing complex cybersecurity challenges. He possesses a thorough understanding of the tools, techniques, procedures, and attack vectors employed by cyber adversaries. Artie has a proven track record of providing strategic guidance, collaboration, and engineering support to a wide range of organizations, including state and local governments, educational institutions, intelligence agencies, transportation authorities, and the Department of Defense, all in support of their cybersecurity missions. Throughout his distinguished career, Artie has held pivotal roles at organizations such as the Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), Microsoft, MITRE, and others. His work has been centered on developing advanced techniques and tools for real-world operations. A 27-year veteran of the U.S. Marine Corps, Artie retired in 2011 as the Cybersecurity Chief of the Marine Corps, where he served as the Senior Technical Advisor to the CIO and Director of C4.  

    Heavy Strategy
    HS121: Digital Security Teammates: From Fantasy to Operational Reality (Sponsored)

    Heavy Strategy

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 16, 2025 32:50


    Your next security teammate might not be a traditional hire — it could be a Digital Security Teammate (DST),” says Secure.com CEO Uzair Gadit. In this sponsored episode, Uzair explains the concept of a DST and how it differs from an AI SOC. He highlights the operational and business benefits of deploying DST, including improved... Read more »

    Fiction Lab
    Delayed with... Toé @ Ouroboros Festival 2025

    Fiction Lab

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 16, 2025 133:15


    In a moment where festivals blur into a constant scroll of names and posters, Ouroboros has always felt anchored to something more elemental. Tucked into the Cantal wilderness, it operates like a temporary ecosystem, built on trust between artists, crews, and the land itself. Toé sits at the center of that orbit. As a DJ, producer, and co-architect of the festival's identity, her presence carries a quiet authority. The same sensibility runs through Soma Animae, her personal platform that reads like a field journal, and through Chimaera, the Eyes Wide Open radio show she curates for LYL. Spend a little time with her work and the through-line becomes clear. Nature is not an aesthetic reference point here. It is the operating system. That context matters when listening back to her set from this year's Ouroboros, now part of our Delayed with series. Peak hour on paper, but the usual signals are intentionally bypassed. Instead of release-driven drama, Toé builds a flexible structure where tension is constantly adjusted, stretched, and rebalanced. Acid pressure appears and dissolves, depth gives way to propulsion, grooves are allowed to settle before being nudged elsewhere. Ouroboros' connection to its surroundings has always shaped how sound functions there, and Toé navigates that dynamic instinctively. The forest is not a backdrop but a participant, absorbing and reflecting the pulse coming from the sound system. For those two hours, the exchange holds steady, neither side dominating. What you hear in this set is that equilibrium, electronic music meeting the physical world without either one blinking first. “We circle around and around and around. As if dancing with the fire's breath. An ever-turning wheel, Like a flame spiraling itself into endless spaces.” Thanks to the producers : Ground Tactic, Marco Shuttle, Black Merlin, Function, Neel, Antigone, Rrose, VC-118A, Echologist, Varuna, Boston 168, Peter Van Hoesen, Silent Servant, Maurizio Cascella, Negative Return, Cio d'Or, Oskitronik, Michal Wolski, Muzmin, Donato Dozzi, Daniel Kane, Varuna, Luke Slater, Shifted, Forest Drive West, Stojche and Andy Martin. - Toé https://soundcloud.com/toe_music https://www.instagram.com/melu_toe https://soundcloud.com/ouroboros-festival https://www.instagram.com/ouroboros.ssss write up by @gilleswasserman Follow us on social media: https://soundcloud.com/itsdelayed https://linktr.ee/delayed https://www.delayed.nyc https://www.facebook.com/itsdelayed https://www.instagram.com/_____delayed https://www.youtube.com/@_____delayed Contact us: info@delayed.nyc

    GREY Journal Daily News Podcast
    Why Did Palantir's CIO Choose Thrive Capital's New Venture?

    GREY Journal Daily News Podcast

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 16, 2025 2:59


    Jim Siders, former CIO of Palantir Technologies, has been appointed CEO of Shield Technology Partners, a new IT services company launched by Thrive Holdings with over $100 million in initial funding. Shield acquires and supports IT services companies, providing them with AI technology and engineering resources, and allows these companies to retain equity. Shield currently works with seven companies, expects over $100 million in revenue this year, and plans to expand its portfolio. Thrive Holdings, which also operates in the accounting sector, recently partnered with OpenAI, which has taken an ownership stake and will embed teams within its portfolio companies.Learn more on this news by visiting us at: https://greyjournal.net/news/ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

    UC Today - Out Loud
    AI Governance Crisis: 88% of Firms Face Governance and Security Challenges They Can't Control - Theta Lake

    UC Today - Out Loud

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 16, 2025 17:28


    In this eye-opening interview, Rob Scott of UC Today is joined by Stacey English, Director of Regulatory Intelligence at Theta Lake, to explore what's becoming one of the biggest emerging risks in financial services: AI governance failure.Theta Lake's recent research, based on insights from 500 financial institutions, shows a concerning paradox: while AI promises massive productivity gains, most firms are flying blind when it comes to monitoring AI-generated communications, making them vulnerable to compliance breaches, data leakage, and regulatory scrutiny.Stacey brings her former-regulator perspective to discuss what firms are getting wrong, how "AI comms" are redefining risk, and why unmonitored employee-AI interactions are a ticking time bomb.Key Takeaways from the Conversation:The rise of “AI comms”: New categories of interaction demand new compliance strategies.The visibility crisis: 67% of firms admit their staff are likely using unmonitored channels.Tech fragmentation: The average firm uses 3+ vendors—creating data silos and record-keeping chaos.What real AI governance looks like: From ISO 42001 certification to unified oversight across modalities.Whether you're a CIO, compliance officer, or simply navigating AI adoption in a regulated space, this discussion highlights how to move beyond foundational guardrails to true governance.Next Steps:Ready to take control of your AI communications? Visit thetalake.com for guidance on your compliance journey

    Animal Spirits Podcast
    Title: Talk Your Book: The Anti-AI Portfolio

    Animal Spirits Podcast

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 15, 2025 37:07


    On this episode of Animal Spirits: Talk Your Book, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Michael Batnick⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Ben Carlson⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ are joined by John Neff, portfolio manager and CIO at Akre Capital Management to discuss: the firm's concentrated stock portfolio, how to hold stocks for the long-run, beating the S&P 500 and more. Find complete show notes on our blogs... Ben Carlson's ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠A Wealth of Common Sense⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Michael Batnick's ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Irrelevant Investor⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Feel free to shoot us an email at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠animalspirits@thecompoundnews.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ with any feedback, questions, recommendations, or ideas for future topics of conversation. Check out the latest in financial blogger fashion at The Compound shop: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://idontshop.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. See our disclosures here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ The Compound Media, Incorporated, an affiliate of ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Ritholtz Wealth Management⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    Thoughts on the Market
    Why Market Stability Matters to the Fed

    Thoughts on the Market

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 15, 2025 4:39


    Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains the significance of the Fed's decision to resume buying $40 billion of Treasury bills monthly. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist.Today on the podcast I'll be discussing the Fed's decision last week and what it means for stocks.It's Monday, December 15th at 11:30am in New York. So, let's get after it.Last week's Fed meeting provided incremental support for our positive 2026 outlook on equities. The Fed delivered on its expected hawkish rate cut but also indicated it would do more if the labor market continues to soften. More important than the rate cut was the Fed's decision to restart asset purchases. More specifically, the Fed intends to immediately begin buying $40 billion of T-Bills per month to ensure the smooth operation of financial markets. Based on our conversations with investors prior to the announcement, this amount and timing of bill buying exceeded both consensus, and my own expectations. It also confirms a key insight I have been discussing for months and highlighted in our Year Ahead Outlook. First, the Fed is not independent of markets, and market stability often plays a dominant role in Fed policy beyond the stated dual mandate of full employment and price stability.Second, given the size of the debt and deficit, the Fed has an additional responsibility to assist Treasury in funding the government, and will likely continue to work more closely with Treasury in this regard.Finally, the decision to intervene in funding markets sooner and more aggressively than expected may not be ‘Quantitative Easing' as defined by the Fed. However, it is a form of debt monetization that directly helps to reduce the crowding out from the still growing Treasury issuance, especially as Treasury issues more Bills over Bonds.At the Fed's October meeting, it indicated some concern about tightening liquidity which I have discussed on this podcast as the single biggest risk to the bull market in stocks. Evidence of this tightness can be seen in the performance of asset prices most sensitive to liquidity, including crypto currencies and profitless growth stocks.While the Fed probably isn't too concerned about the performance of these asset classes, it does care about financial stability in the bond, credit and funding markets. This is what likely prompted it to restart asset purchases sooner and in a more significant way than most expected.We view this as a form of debt monetization as I mentioned, given the Treasury's objective to issue more bills going forward. More importantly, these purchases provide additional liquidity for markets, and in combination with rate cuts, suggest the Fed is likely less worried about missing its inflation target. This is very much in line with our run it hot thesis dating back to early 2021. As a reminder, accelerating inflation is positive for asset prices as long as it doesn't force the Fed's hand to take the punch bowl away like in 2022. Ironically, the risk in the near-term is that this larger than expected asset purchase program may be insufficient if the Fed has materially underestimated the level of reserves necessary for markets to operate smoothly. This is what happened in 2019 and why the Fed created the Standing Repo Facility in the first place. However, this is more of a tool that is used on an as-needed basis. What the markets may want or need is a larger buffer if the Fed has underestimated the level of reserves required for smoothly functioning financial markets.To be clear, I don't know what that level is, but I do believe markets will tell us if the Fed has done enough with this latest provision. Liquidity-sensitive asset classes and areas of the equity market will be important to watch in this regard, particularly given how weak they traded last Friday and this morning.Bottom line, the Fed has reacted to the markets' tremors over the past few months. Should markets wobble again, we are highly confident the Fed will once again react until things calm down. Last week's FOMC meeting only increases our conviction in that case and keeps us bullish over the next 6-12 months, and our 7800 price target on the S&P 500. We would welcome a correction in the short term as a buying opportunity. Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

    Lifetime Cash Flow Through Real Estate Investing
    Build-to-Rent Explained by a Developer Doing 2,000 Homes | Ep. 1,190

    Lifetime Cash Flow Through Real Estate Investing

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 15, 2025 45:54


    Adam Wolfson is the founder, CEO, and CIO of Wolfson BTR, a premier Build to Rent company known for helping pioneer BTR investment and development at scale. With more than 20 years of real estate experience, including leadership roles in single family rentals, he has grown the firm to a pipeline of nearly 2,000 units with an estimated $1 billion exit valuation, placing it among the top BTR developers in the U.S. Adam holds an MBA from George Washington University and a BA from the University of Michigan, and lives in Miami with his two sons.   Here's some of the topics we covered:   From commercial real estate to dominating Build to Rent How BTR deals actually get off the ground Navigating local governments without killing the deal The smartest Build to Rent strategies that really work America's housing crisis and why BTR is booming The hottest Build to Rent markets investors are chasing What it truly takes to win in Build to Rent How massive the Build to Rent opportunity really is   To find out more about partnering or investing in a multifamily deal: Text Partner to 72345 or email Partner@RodKhleif.com    For more about Rod and his real estate investing journey go to www.rodkhleif.com   Please Review and Subscribe  

    On The Tape
    Louis Vincent-Gave: From Uninvestable to Unflappable; China's Semiconductor and AI Blitz Is Rewriting the Trade War

    On The Tape

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 15, 2025 56:19


    In this episode of the RiskReversal Podcast, host Dan Nathan and guest Peter Boockvar, CIO at One Point BFG Wealth Partners, speak with Louis Vincent-Gave, CEO and founder of Gavekal, to discuss the evolving economic competition between the US and China. They explore the impact of past trade embargos, particularly the 2018 semiconductor embargo, and China's response which led to significant industrial advancements. The conversation touches on the implications for global markets, US companies, and the strategic shifts in industrial policy. They also delve into the potential outcomes of continued US-China rivalry, including the growing importance of AI technology, state capitalism, and the future role of the US and China in global trade. The episode highlights the complexities and potential shifts in economic power dynamics and the strategic responses required on both sides. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

    CREative Talk with Tim Jemal - NAIOP SoCal
    Ep.50 Eliza Bailey Belay Investment Group

    CREative Talk with Tim Jemal - NAIOP SoCal

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 15, 2025 37:43


    NAIOP SoCal's CREative Talk with Tim Jemal is where commercial real estate leaders share bold moves, big insights, and career-defining moments.In our latest episode, Tim chats with Eliza Bailey, Co-Founder, CEO & CIO of Belay Investment Group. With nearly three decades in real estate investing and portfolio management, Eliza shares her journey from founding her first investment business to leading Belay's strategy and growth. Don't miss this inspiring conversation full of insights, leadership lessons, and career-defining moments!Know someone who should be featured on the podcast, or interested in sponsorship opportunities? Reach out to NAIOP SoCal at:

    Silicon Valley Tech And AI With Gary Fowler
    Building Trust in Generative and Agentic AI for the Enterprise with Chris Corrado

    Silicon Valley Tech And AI With Gary Fowler

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 15, 2025 26:36


    Join Chris Corrado, CEO Americas and President at Squirro, in an in-depth conversation with Gary Fowler as they explore one of the most urgent challenges in AI today: trust. Discover how enterprises can deploy generative and agentic AI responsibly, securely, and at scale while maintaining transparency and protecting business integrity.

    Deep Leadership
    #0407 – How to Build Real Influence as a Leader with Brad Englert

    Deep Leadership

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 14, 2025 35:28


    How to Build Real Influence as a Leader with Brad Englert How do leaders build real influence that lasts, not just connections that fade? In this episode of Deep Leadership, I'm joined by Brad Englert, author of Spheres of Influence and former CIO at the University of Texas at Austin. Brad shares decades of leadership experience on how authentic relationships, not transactional networking, are the true foundation of influence, trust, and long-term success. We talk about why most networking events fail, how leaders should think about their internal and external spheres of influence, and why trust must be built before a crisis hits. Brad also explains how getting out of your office, meeting people where they are, and genuinely caring about their success can transform your leadership and your career. This conversation is packed with practical leadership lessons, real-world stories, and a simple message every leader needs to hear: real influence is earned through consistency, humility, and relationships that endure. In this episode, we cover: What real influence looks like in leadership Internal vs. external spheres of influence Why traditional networking doesn't work How trust and reciprocity are built over time Leading with authenticity, care, and intention You can learn more about Brad Englert, get a free sample of his book Spheres of Influence, and explore his work - https://bradenglert.com/podcast If you found this episode valuable, subscribe and share so we can continue to build a world with better bosses. Sponsors: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Cadre of Men⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Farrow Skin Care⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Salty Sailor Coffee Company⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Leader Connect⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Qualified Leadership Series⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ____ Get all of Jon Rennie's bestselling leadership books for 15% off the regular price today! ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠HERE⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    Top Traders Unplugged
    SI378: When Prices Stop Making Sense ft. Mark Rzepczynski

    Top Traders Unplugged

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 13, 2025 62:35 Transcription Available


    This episode examines markets through the lens of uncertainty rather than prediction. As the Federal Reserve delivers a rate cut amid dissent and conflicting signals, Alan and Mark explore what it means for systematic investors navigating noisy data, fragile liquidity and shifting regimes. The conversation moves from Fed credibility and term premia to bubbles, leverage and the limits of valuation in an environment shaped by narratives as much as fundamentals. Along the way, they return to a core question at the heart of systematic investing: when uncertainty rises and explanations multiply, should prices remain the final arbiter of risk, signal and portfolio design?-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor series00:23 - Market context and recent CTA performance02:41 - Initial reactions to the Fed decision and rate cut03:12 - A messy Fed and the problem of dissenting signals06:48 - Inflation, growth projections and policy uncertainty08:31 - Signal versus noise in systematic trading models11:22 - Employment data revisions and confidence in fundamentals13:10 - Bond valuation, term premia and the question of safe assets16:30 - Fiscal dominance, inflation risk and portfolio fragility19:29 - Prices versus value and the limits of interpretation22:47 - Narratives, reflexivity and momentum in markets28:07...

    Financial Sense(R) Newshour
    The Dollar's Tipping Point: Chris Puplava on What's Next for Precious Metals and Asset Allocation

    Financial Sense(R) Newshour

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 13, 2025 27:48


    Dec 12, 2025 – With silver soaring to multi-year highs and the dollar at a critical turning point, Chris Puplava, CIO at Financial Sense Wealth Management, argues that the next move for the dollar will have significant consequences for precious metals...

    Beyond Markets
    China Conversations: AI momentum and policy tailwinds into 2026

    Beyond Markets

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 12, 2025 26:30


    Chinese equities enter 2026 on a strong footing, with policy tailwinds from the upcoming Five-Year Plan expected to sustain momentum despite recent consolidation. While tech-led rallies have dominated, attention is shifting toward domestic consumption as policymakers prioritise demand-side reforms—a potential turnaround for lagging consumer sectors if stimulus materialises.Meanwhile, ongoing concerns over stretched valuations in US tech and AI names underscore the case made for diversifying into non-US markets, such as China and Japan. Structural drivers, including a weaker U.S. dollar and gradual yuan appreciation, add to the appeal. On commodities, strong fundamentals and AI-driven demand for industrial metals signal further upside, building on this year's broad-based rally in materials.This episode is presented by Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer and Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management Ltd.

    Your Life, Simplified
    From experience to impact: A leader's journey | Your Life Simplified

    Your Life, Simplified

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 11, 2025 61:30


    Leadership isn't defined by a job title—it's shaped by the experiences, values and people who influence our path. In this episode, host and senior wealth advisor Whitney Reagan sits down with Mariner's Chief Investment Officer, Katrina Radenberg, for a candid conversation about mentorship, growth and authenticity. Together, they explore the moments that shaped Katrina's journey to CIO and the lasting impact of leading with intention.

    Lance Roberts' Real Investment Hour
    12-11-25 Bifurcated Fed Cuts Rates - What's Next

    Lance Roberts' Real Investment Hour

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 11, 2025 46:43


    The Federal Reserve cut rates by a quarter point Wednesday, but the real story is the division behind the decision. For the first time since 2021, three Fed governors dissented--an uncommon break in policy unity that raises new questions about inflation progress, economic risk, and the path of monetary policy into 2026. Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz explain why the Fed cut now, what the dissent signals, and how a split vote may affect market volatility, yields, and expectations for future rate moves. We also look at how past dissent has aligned with turning points in policy cycles and what this could mean for portfolios as financial conditions continue to ease. Use the chapter markers below to jump to any topic. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - The Fed Giveth, Oracle Taketh Away 6:53 - Volatility on the Rise 11:25 - Adding Ultra for Mrs. Roberts 14:16 - Surprises from the Fed? 18:15 - Fed Statement Analysis (chart) 20:12 - Betting on Kevin Hassett 22:08 - QE or Not QE? 26:30 - Valuations are a Function of Sentiment 29:48 - When Will Markets Crash? 32:32 - The Break Between Value & Growth 35:32 - ETF Issueance & High Risk Offerings 38:52 - What Happens When Gold and Stocks Rise 41:12 - What is Your Goal for Your Portfolio? 42:52 - Coming Attractions Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bT1azosP1yk&list=PLVT8LcWPeAuhi47sn298HrsWYwmg8MV7d&index=1 ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Volatility After the Fed," is here: https://youtu.be/gnorFZc1qM8 ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Bullish Case Or Bearish Backdrop" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/bullish-case-or-bearish-backdrop/ -------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Watch our previous show, "Live-chat Q&A Show" here: https://bit.ly/3KQlkIK -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #FederalReserve #InterestRates #MarketVolatility #NASDAQ #FederalReserve #InterestRates #FOMC #MarketOutlook #InvestingStrategy

    Venture Stories
    Scaling in the AI Era with PagerDuty CEO Jen Tejada

    Venture Stories

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 11, 2025 47:07


    Jen Tejada is CEO of PagerDuty, a public company serving 30,000+ customers worldwide. She joined Village Global GP Ben Casnocha for a masterclass on scaling in the AI era, followed by live feedback sessions with four founders building AI-native companies.Takeaways:Enterprise sentiment has shifted from “fear of missing out” to “fear of getting in.” Customers are anxious about security, resilience, and managing the people transition.Know what gets your customer promoted and what gets them fired. Different personas care about different things. A CIO has different anxieties than a developer or CMO.Pricing is a strategic foundation, not a tactical enabler. Start with value realization for the customer, then build pricing metrics that tie back to that value. Consumption-based models are popular, but predictability matters more than novelty.Transparency is becoming an expectation. Customers want instrumentation in your product that makes their consumption and costs visible. Nobody likes surprises when managing margins.The AI transformation is moving faster than any previous shift. Old playbooks don't always apply. The people willing to embrace change and experiment with new ways of operating will win faster.Build your CEO village. Having a trusted network of other CEOs who understand the unique pressures of the role makes all the difference. Invest in that community on a daily basis.Psychology matters in people transitions. Asking employees to use AI to replace themselves won't work. Think differently about how you organize to get work done while helping people transition to where they can add value.Thanks for listening — if you like what you hear, please review us on your favorite podcast platform. Check us out on the web at www.villageglobal.com or get in touch with us on X @villageglobal.Want to get updates from us? Subscribe to get a peek inside the Village. We'll send you reading recommendations, exclusive event invites, and commentary on the latest happenings in Silicon Valley. www.villageglobal.com/signup

    Top Traders Unplugged
    TTU151: What Comes After 60/40? Systematic Thinking, BlackRock Style ft. Jeff Rosenberg

    Top Traders Unplugged

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 10, 2025 73:38 Transcription Available


    Niels and Alan sit down with BlackRock's Jeff Rosenberg to examine how the post Covid shift from too little to too much inflation is reshaping portfolios. Jeff explains why bond and equity correlations have changed, why fixed income is drifting back toward income rather than pure diversification, and how fiscal pressure and soft financial repression may influence rates. They explore what systematic really means at BlackRock, from trend ETFs and defensive alpha to market breadth and execution. The conversation ends with the rise of liquid alternatives, whole portfolio thinking and growing equity concentration risk.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Jeff on LinkedIn.Find out more about DUNN CapitalEpisode Timestamps:00:00 - Introduction, Jeff's role at BlackRock Systematic and setting the agenda04:09 - From too little to too much inflation and the end of divine coincidence09:32 - Wage dynamics, “prices are too high” and persistent, not resurgent, inflation14:48 - Bond equity correlation, the changing role of fixed income and income versus diversification19:55 - Fiscal dominance, debt loads and the risk of soft financial repression25:21 - What “systematic” means at BlackRock across beta, factors and pure alpha30:44 - Trend as a systematic return stream and why...

    Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
    Gavin Baker - Nvidia v. Google, Scaling Laws, and the Economics of AI - [Invest Like the Best, EP.451]

    Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 9, 2025 88:19


    My guest this week is Gavin Baker. Gavin is the managing partner and CIO of Atreides Management, and he has been on the show many times before.  I will never forget when I first met Gavin in 2017. I find his interest in markets, his curiosity about the world to be as infectious as any investor that I've ever come across. He's encyclopedic on what is going on in the world of technology today, and I've had the good fortune to host him every year or two on this podcast. Gavin began covering Nvidia as an investor more than two decades ago, giving him a rare perspective on how the company – and the entire semiconductor ecosystem – has evolved. A lot has changed since our last conversation a year ago, making this the perfect time to revisit the topic. In this conversation, we talk about everything that interests Gavin – Nvidia's GPUs, Google's TPUs, the changing AI landscape, the math and business models around AI companies and everything in between. We also discussed the idea of data centers in space, which he communicates with his usual passion and logic. In closing, at the end of this conversation, because I've asked him my traditional closing question before, I asked him a different question, which led to a discussion of his entire investing origin story that I had never heard before. Because Gavin is one of the most passionate thinkers and investors that I know, these conversations are always amongst my most favorite. I hope you enjoy this latest in the series of discussions with Gavin Baker. For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ----- This episode is brought to you by⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Ramp⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Ramp's mission is to help companies manage their spend in a way that reduces expenses and frees up time for teams to work on more valuable projects. Go to⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ramp.com/invest to sign up for free and get a $250 welcome bonus. ----- This episode is brought to you by⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Ridgeline⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Ridgeline has built a complete, real-time, modern operating system for investment managers. It handles trading, portfolio management, compliance, customer reporting, and much more through an all-in-one real-time cloud platform. Head to ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ridgelineapps.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to learn more about the platform. ----- This episode is brought to you by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠AlphaSense⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. AlphaSense has completely transformed the research process with cutting-edge AI technology and a vast collection of top-tier, reliable business content. Invest Like the Best listeners can get a free trial now at⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Alpha-Sense.com/Invest⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and experience firsthand how AlphaSense and Tegus help you make smarter decisions faster. ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://thepodcastconsultant.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠). Show Notes: (00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like The Best (00:04:00) Meet Gavin Baker (00:06:00) Understanding Gemini 3  (00:09:05) Scaling Laws for Pre-Training (00:12:12) Google v. Nvidia (00:16:52) Google as  Lowest Cost Producer of Tokens (00:28:05)  AI Can Automate Anything that can be Verified (00:34:30) The AI Bear Case: Edge AI (00:37:18) Going from Intelligence to Usefulness (00:43:44) AI Adoption in Fortune 500 Companies (00:48:58) Frontier Models and Industry Dynamics (00:56:40) China's Mistake and Blackwell's Geopolitical Leverage (00:57:50) OpenAI's Code Red (01:00:46) Data Centers in Space (01:07:13) Cycles in AI (01:11:10) Power as a Bottleneck (01:14:17) AI Native Entrepreneurs (01:16:21) Semiconductor VC (01:20:41) The Mistake the SaaS Industry is Making (01:26:50) Series of Bubbles (01:28:56) Whatever AI Needs, It Gets (01:29:57) Investing is the Search for Truth (01:31:24) Gavin's Investing Origin Story

    Thoughts on the Market
    Stocks in 2026: What's Next for Retail Investors

    Thoughts on the Market

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 8, 2025 13:53


    Mike Wilson, our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, and Dan Skelly, Senior Investment Strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, discuss the outlook for the U.S. stock market in 2026 and the most significant themes for retail investors. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Mike Wilson: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson. Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Daniel Skelly: And I'm Dan Skelly, Senior Investment Strategist for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. Mike Wilson: Today we're going to have a conversation about our views on the U.S. stock market in 2026, and what matters most to retail investors in particular. It's Monday, December 8th at 9am in New York. So, let's get after it. Dan, it's great to see you. We always talk about the markets together. I think this is a great opportunity for us to share those thoughts with listeners. Our view coming into this year is still pretty bullish for 2026. We've been bullish on [20]25 as you have, probably for, you know, similar – maybe some slightly different reasons. I think one of our differentiating views is that we do think inflation is still a major risk for individual investors. And institutional investors, quite frankly, which is why stocks have done so much better. A concept, I think you're well aware of. And I think, you know, the risk for retail is that there's going to be; it's going to be volatile. So, point-to-point, we're still bullish as you are. How are you thinking about managing that point-to-point path? And how are you structuring your portfolio as we go into 2026 with a bullish outlook – but understanding that it's not always going to be smooth. Daniel Skelly: So, like you said, we've also shared this view that next year's going to be positive, albeit there's going to be more volatility. And when I think about the two main risks that retail investors are facing today, one of them is definitely inflation. We're seeing that in services. We're seeing that in housing. We've had the labor market shrink over the recent couple of quarters, so who knows if wage inflation pops up again. But there are ways to definitely hedge against that in an equity portfolio. We think, for instance, owning parts of the AI infrastructure cohort is one of the ways of hedging, whether that be in utilities, pipelines, energy infrastructure in general. These are areas that we think are a necessary hedge against inflation risk. And number two are a positive diversifier. And second key point, Mike, just thinking about that diversification comment. Look, we all know that in many ways the Mag 7 – and the technology strength that we've seen this past year – has driven a fairly concentrated market. I think what people, particularly on the individual side, are recognizing less is just how much AI cuts across many other sectors in parts of the market. And again, we think that risk of over concentration is still out there. And we like the idea of thinking of embedding natural diversification into the equity portfolio. Mike Wilson: Yeah. I mean, it's interesting. Inflation, you know, is part of that story too because AI is somewhat disinflationary or deflationary. I think, you know, investing in things that can drive higher productivity even away from AI can mitigate some of that risk in the economic outlook. But if I think about, you know, the Mag 7 dominance, and just this concentrated market risk, which you spoke about. If inflation re-accelerates next year, which, you know, is one of our core views as the economy improves – doesn't that broaden out the opportunity set? And you know, like there's been this idea that, ‘Oh, you have to own these seven stocks and nothing else.' I mean, part of our view for next year is that we think the market's going to broaden out. How are you set up for that broadening out? And how are you thinking about picking stocks and new themes that can work – that maybe people aren't paying attention to right now? Daniel Skelly: Yeah, it's a great point, Mike. And so, on the first topic, we do think there's broadening, and that's a combination of factors. Number one is just the market becoming more convicted about the Fed cutting path, which we've talked about, and the firm's view reaffirms for next year. Number two is starting to see some of the benefits of deregulation, right, which should impact maybe some of the more cyclical sectors out there – Financials, Energy being two of them. Maybe seeing more M&A activity too as a byproduct of deregulation. And that should bode better for mid- and maybe small caps as well as they receive a M&A premia in the valuations. And I know you've talked about small caps recently in your commentary. But last point I'll make Mike, and it comes back to AI. It almost feels like AI is this huge inflationary ramp at first to get to that deflationary nirvana down the road – with productivity. I think one of the key factors we think about, in terms of a bottom-up perspective, which is what we focus on in across the portfolio, is definitely pricing power. Who owns the pricing power and the key data and the key AI adoption outlook in order to absorb all the different tools and technology diffusion we've seen in the last three years. And that's going to play out, Mike, as you well know, across a variety of sectors and themes. So, agreed, we should see broadening for all those varying reasons. Mike Wilson: So, I mean, there are a couple areas I think, where we overlap. Financials…Daniel Skelly: Yep. Mike Wilson: Industrials, Healthcare, some of the themes that I think we both; we share our bullish views. And what do you think those areas are, within those sectors? You think that you have a differentiated view maybe than the consensus being Financials, Industrials, Healthcare? That the market may be missing, which offers more upset? Daniel Skelly: Sure. I'll start with Financials, which has been an overweight call for us for some time, as I know it has for you as well. And I think that kind of cyclical re-acceleration in the economy is one part. I think the Fed cutting is another part. I think deregulation is clearly another driver. Fourth Capital Markets recovery, which we have seen now. We had a little bit of a technical lull with the government shutdown in terms of filings and issuance, but we see all of the pipeline indicators, indicating green lights for next year in terms of recovery. I think the one thing I would argue that I've observed in looking at all of our vast data sets is that despite all these different bullish factors, this still maybe has been a theme or a sector that investors have traded in and out of, right? I don't think I've even seen like a real strong, consistent overweight. So, I think number one, that's an opportunity. And last point is, listen, there's different sub-sector bifurcation going on, as you know, within the industry, whereas money centers and large banks are performing really well. The same is not the case of regionals and alts managers. And there are varying reasons for that. But we would even argue, Mike, there could be catchup trades within the sector next year. Mike Wilson: Yeah, I would agree on that. I mean, the regional over money centers and actually regionals over alt managers, because I mean – I think the Treasury Secretary has talked about this, you know. Trying to get the regulated banking system kind of back in the game may actually be an opportunity to take share back from some of those alt managers, which have actually done quite well. What about on Healthcare? We upgraded that back in the summer. I think you've been constructive on parts of Healthcare, right. Wwhat do you think people are missing there and why could that be a good sector for next year? Daniel Skelly: Yeah. We were definitely, I'll say, earlier than you and wrong. You had really good timing in terms of your Healthcare upgrade last summer. And look, the sector was out of favor for two years. What we think we observed in the kind of July-August period is: First and foremost, I think we got past the point of maximum policy concern and risk. And ironically, we saw some kind of nominal or surface level deal signed with the government around most favored nation pricing. And it was really, not a lot to write home about. It wasn't as egregious as a policy inflection as some had feared. So, I think that was the first key catalyst. Second, we just saw a really good revisions breadth. And I know this is a comment you make a lot in your work. But we saw across big pharma, tools and life science, medical technology, and devices. We saw really good positive earnings revisions coming out of third and even starting the second quarter. Thirdly, I think if you're talking about an M&A in capital markets recovery, you can't not talk about Healthcare. I think that's a space that'll be ripe for deal making. And then just fourth, right? Look, as the market broadens out, and as people are stopping or maybe slowing the crowding and the key leadership, they're going to go again from AI enablers to AI adopters. And we think AI is going to be a vector that cuts across the Healthcare industry in a really positive way. Mike Wilson: Yeah, I mean, the efficiencies that are, you know, possible in the Healthcare sector seem immense. I mean, it, it appears to me that that's going to be an area where there's probably some new solutions, some new companies we don't even know about yet. So, to me that's a very exciting area that's been dormant for quite a while. What about Consumer, Dan? It's been this K economy. It's been very bifurcated, you know, high-end versus middle-income, lower-income. I mean, what are the themes within consumer that you're finding in putting to work in your portfolio? Daniel Skelly: Yeah. We've talked a lot, Mike, in the last year or so about playing Consumer platforms, particularly domestically oriented versus global consumer brands. And there's a couple of key drivers behind that. But first, when you look at what's going on in consumer land, and Simeon Gutman's been a really good, kind of, analyst looking at this theme over time. In many ways it's starting to resemble the Mag 7 in terms of winner take all phenomena. If you look at some of the major consumer big box platforms, they're taking 50- 60 percent of share of total retail sales. Just a couple of companies. So, number one, we're really focused on platforms where market share gains, free cash flow and revenue – recurring revenue – in particular, are leading to even stronger competitive moats, particularly in a capital-intensive industry. And what we've observed about retail is that as those leaders in big box areas take more share, they can reinvest that winning capital in their advertising growth in their online channel and widen their moats even more. Secondly though, in order to have a positive theme, I've always said you got to fund it from somewhere. And so, what we've observed again over the last year or so is – when I think about some of the even highest quality global brands they've suffered seeing less traction in China. And that's amid less of a willingness from Chinese consumers to own American and European brands. There's a lot to that, but I think culturally, obviously the trade war, the AI war for prominence leading to maybe some of that lack of cultural traction. Secondly, we've also, I think, started to see the growth of AI tools start to weigh on established brands. I think what makes a brand cool and the barriers to entry in terms of creating brands is going to go down in the future because of AI influencing and advertising tools. And so, simply put, we continue to like, Mike, the big box consumer platforms across, clothing and food, housing, across e-commerce. That continues to be one of our higher conviction themes. Mike Wilson: All right, Dan, I want to come back to, kind of, AI infrastructure. I mean, AI spending has been the big, big theme. But there's other types of infrastructure spend and CapEx. It's been dormant, quite frankly, and with the [One] Big Beautiful Bill [Act] perhaps incentivizing some of that. How does that play into your thought process around other industrial stocks that could benefit? Daniel Skelly: Absolutely, Mike. You cited the AI infrastructure spending. We think continues kind of unimpeded going into next year. Number two, we think the Fed cutting, just creating better financing conditions in terms of bigger projects. You mentioned as well, the fiscal incentives. And look, I think Chris Snyder has been spot on the last year or so talking about reshoring production wins coming back to the U.S. I don't think this is certainly as cognizant on the – or on the minds of individual investors. Maybe not even institutional investors. But the U.S. is winning manufacturing production share and has been for some time. And we've seen that no doubt ramp up post the announcement of the [One] Big Beautiful Bill {Act]. No doubt. But we think that has implications, Mike, for stocks and stock picking within what we would call, kind of, shorter cycle themes. And I think whether that be in Logistics and Transports or HVAC or some of the Non-Resi, Non-Datacenter related verticals. There are a whole bunch of stocks that have been kind of dormant for two to three years as we've been in this ISM recession that we think could certainly wake up next year as things broaden out. Mike Wilson: Yeah, we would agree with that. And I guess lastly, you know, there's always this Johnny come lately, you know, fear factor of, ‘Well … stocks are up a ton. My neighbor's bragging how much money they're making. So, I must have missed it all.' And I think embedded within that is this fear of valuation. The valuations are now very rich. What's your response to individual clients about – it's not too late, they haven't missed it. It's still a bull market. In fact, we would argue a new bull market began in April with a new economic cycle. What is your response to those folks who have that angst? Daniel Skelly: Two things. One is the market today looks totally different than it did in the past, and AI is no doubt one big part of that. The composition of the market in many ways is higher quality, less debt, more recurring revenue. Big call option on productivity coming from AI earnings, power, et cetera. So, we think the market should trade at richer levels than it did in the past, point number one. Point number two, we would say whereas most people say time is your friend – for individual investors, they would also say valuation is no short term or short run indicator, but it's the best long run indicator. And looking at today's, again, extended levels of valuation relative to history – they would say that's not going to play out well over the long run. I would actually take the other side of that. I think that the earnings and the economic potential unleashed not just from AI, but some of these fiscal and monetary policies could create tremendous margin earnings potential in the long run. And so, I think today we're looking at a level of multiples that appears artificially high. And based on what could be a big earnings inflection point in that multi-year timeframe could frankly just be superficially high. Mike Wilson: Well, Dan, it's always great to get your perspective. I always enjoyed chatting with you. Daniel Skelly: Likewise. Mike Wilson: Thanks for coming on the show and sharing it with our listeners. It's great to see you. Daniel Skelly: Thanks Mike. Mike Wilson: And thanks to our listeners. Thanks for tuning in and let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out.

    On The Tape
    Steal The Secrets From Wall Street's Top Traders with Robinhood CIO Steph Guild

    On The Tape

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 8, 2025 44:55


    Dan Nathan and Guy Adami host Stephanie Guild, CIO at Robinhood, on the RiskReversal podcast. The discussion spans various financial topics, including Federal Reserve policies, market trends, and projections for the S&P 500. Stephanie offers insights into the potential for a Santa Claus rally, the valuation of tech stocks, and the impact of consumer behavior on the market. They also explore the effects of AI spending and the sustainability of company valuations like Nvidia and Google. The conversation touches on credit market signals, the role of small businesses, and the significance of investor behavior observed through Robinhood's customer base. They conclude with thoughts on the interplay of government policies and market stability, particularly highlighting the implications of intertwined Federal Reserve and Treasury actions. Show Notes Microsoft Lowers Sales Staff's Growth Targets For Newer AI Software (The Information) -- FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media