Podcast appearances and mentions of peter turchin

Czy historia przebiega według pewnych ustalonych praw i czy da się ją nie tylko zrozumieć, ale też przewidzieć? W dziejach ludzkiej myśli wielu było takich, którzy uważali, że tak. W XXI wieku do ich grona dołączył Peter Turchin, rosyjsko-amerykański biolog i, jak sam nazwał tę dziedzinę, kliodynamik. W wydanej w Polsce pracy „Czasy ostateczne” stworzył koncepcję cyklu historycznego wynikającego z działania pompy bogactwa i nadprodukcji elit.Jak można tę koncepcję zastosować do współczesnych nam czasów? To temat rozmowy z Marcinem Giełzakiem – publicystą i historykiem, współprowadzącym podcast „Dwie lewe ręce”, autorem książek takich jak „Antykomuniści lewicy” i „Wieczna lewica”. Rozmawiamy o tym, czy można się z tego cyklu wyrwać, a jeśli nie – to jak światle się w nim odnaleźć, niezależnie od tego, na którym szczeblu społecznej drabiny jesteśmy.Podcastu „Czas odzyskany” możesz posłuchać na platformach Spotify, Apple Podcasts oraz YouTube. This podcast uses the following third-party services for analysis: Podtrac - https://analytics.podtrac.com/privacy-policy-gdrp

Hello Interactors,Every week it seems to get harder to ignore the feeling that we're living through some major turning point — politically, economically, environmentally, and even in how our cities are taking shape around us. Has society seen this movie before? Spoiler: we have, and it has many sequels. History doesn't repeat exactly, but it sure rhymes, especially when competition for power increases, climates collapse, and the urban fabric unravels and rewinds. Today, we'll sift through history's clues, peek through some fresh conceptual lenses, and consider why the way we frame these shifts matters — maybe more now than ever.PRESSURE POINTS AT URBAN JOINTSLet's ground where we all might be historically speaking. Clues from long-term historical patterns suggests social systems go through periodic cycles of integration, expansion, and crisis. Historical quantitative data reveals recurring waves of structural-demographic pressure — moments when inequality, elite overproduction, and resource strain converge to produce instability.By quantitative historian Peter Turchin's account, we are currently drifting through some kind of inflection point. His 2010 essay in Nature anticipated the early 2020s as a period of peak instability that started around 1970. That's when people earning advanced degrees, entering law, finance, media, and politics skyrocketed from the 1970s onward. Meanwhile, the number of elite positions (like Senate seats, Supreme Court clerkships, high level corporate positions) remained fixed or even shrank. This created decades of increased income inequality, elite competition, and declining public trust that created conditions for events like the rise of Trump, polarization, and institutional gridlock.The symptoms are familiar to us now, and they are markers that echo previous systemic ruptures in U.S. history.In the 1770s, colonial grievances and elite competition led to a historic revolutionary realignment. It also coincided with poor harvests and food insecurity that amplified unrest. The 1860s brought civil war driven by slavery and sectional conflict. It too occurred during a period of climate volatility and crop failures. The early 20th century saw the Gilded Age unravel into labor unrest and the Great Depression, following years of drought and economic collapse in the Dust Bowl. The 1960s through 1980s unleashed social protest, stagflation, and the shift toward neoliberal governance amid fears of resource scarcity and rising pollution. In each case, ecological shocks layered onto political and economic pressures — making transformation not only likely, but necessary.Spatial patterns shifted alongside these political ruptures — from rail hubs and company towns to low flung suburban rings and high-rise financialized skylines. Cities can be both staging grounds creating these shifts and mirrors reflecting them. As material and symbolic anchors of society, they reflect where systems are strained — and where new forms may soon take root.Urban transformation today is neither orderly nor speculative — it is reactive. These socio-political, economic, and ecological shifts have fragmented not just the city, but the very frameworks we use to understand it. And with urban scale theory as a measure, change is accelerating exponentially. This means our conceptual tools to understand these shifts best respond just as quickly.Let's dip into the academic world of contemporary urban studies to gauge how scholars are considering these shifts. Here are three lenses that seem well-suited to consider our current landscape…or perhaps those my own biases are attracted to.Urban Political Ecology. This sees the city as a socio-natural process — shaped by uneven flows of energy, capital, and extraction. This approach, developed by critical geographers like Erik Swyngedouw and Maria Kaika, highlights how environmental degradation is often tied to social inequality and political neglect. Matthew Gandy, an urban geographer who blends political theory and environmental history, adds to this view. He shows how infrastructure — from water systems to waste networks — shapes urban nature and power.The Jackson, Mississippi water crisis, for example, revealed how ecological stress and decades of disinvestment resulted in a disheartening breakdown. In 2022, flooding overwhelmed Jackson's aging water system, leaving tens of thousands without safe drinking water — but the failure had been decades in the making. Years of underfunding, political neglect, and systemic racism had hollowed out the city's infrastructure.Or take Musk's AI data center called Colossus in Memphis, Tennessee. It's adjacent to historically Black neighborhoods and uses 35 methane gas-powered turbines that emit harmful nitrogen oxides (NOx) and other pollutants. It's reported to be operating without proper permits and contributes to air quality issues these communities already have long experienced. These crises are vivid cases of what urban political ecologists warn about: how marginalization and disinvestment manifest physically in infrastructure failure, disproportionately affecting already vulnerable populations.Platform Urbanism. This explains much of the growing visible and invisible restructuring of urban space. From delivery networks to sidewalk surveillance, digital platforms now shape land use and behavioral patterns. Urban theorists like Sarah Barns and geographer Agnieszka Leszczynski describe these systems as shadow planners — zoning isn't just on paper anymore; it's encoded in app interfaces and service contracts. Shoshana Zuboff, a social psychologist and scholar of the digital economy, pushes this further. She argues that platforms are not just intermediaries but extractive infrastructures. They're designed to shape behavior and monetize it at scale. As platforms replace institutions, their spatial footprint expands. For example, Amazon has redefined regional land use by building vast fulfillment centers and reshaping delivery logistics across suburbs and exurbs. Or look at Uber and Lyft. They've altered curbside usage and traffic patterns in major cities without ever appearing on official planning documents. These changes demonstrate how digital infrastructure now directs physical development — often faster than public institutions can respond.Neoliberal Urbanism. Though widely critiqued, this remains the dominant lens. Despite growing backlash, deregulated markets, privatized services, and financialized real estate continue to shape planning logic and policy defaults. Urban theorists like Neil Brenner and economic geographer Jamie Peck describe this as a shift from managerial to entrepreneurial cities — where the suburbs sprawl, the towers rise, and exclusion is reproduced not by public design input, but by tax codes, ownership models, and legacy zoning. Like many governing systems, the default is to preserve the status quo. Institutions, once entrenched, tend to perpetuate existing frameworks — even in the face of mounting social or ecological stress.For example, in many U.S. cities, exclusionary zoning laws have long restricted the construction of multi-family housing in favor of single-family homes — limiting supply, reinforcing segregation, and driving up housing costs. Even modest attempts at reform often meet local resistance, revealing how deeply these rules are woven into planning culture.These lenses aren't just theoretical — they are descriptively powerful. They reflect what is, not what could be. But describing the present is only the first step.NEW NOTIONS OF URBAN MOTIONSIt's worth considering alternative conceptual lenses rising in relevance. These are not yet changing the shape of cites at scale, but they are shaping how we think about our urban futures. Historically, new conceptual lenses have often emerged in the wake of the kind of major social and spatial disruptions already covered.For example, the upheavals of the 19th century. This rapid industrialization, urban crowding, and public health crises gave rise to modern, industrial-era city planning. The mid-20th century crises helped institutionalize zoning and modernist design, while the neoliberal turn of the late 20th century elevated market-driven planning models.Emerging conceptual lenses of the 21st century are grounded in complexity, care, informality, and computation. These are responses to the fragmented plurality of our planetary plight — characteristic of the current calamity of our many crises, or polycrisis. Frameworks for thinking and imagining cities gain traction in architecture and planning studios, classrooms, online and physical activist spaces, and experimental design projects. They're not yet dominant, but they are gaining ground. Here are a few I believe to be particularly relevant today.Assemblage Urbanism. This lens views cities not as coherent wholes, but as contingent networks that are always in the making. The term "assemblage" comes from philosophy and anthropology. It refers to how diverse elements — people, materials, policies, and technologies — come together in temporary, evolving configurations. This lens resists top-down models of urban design and instead sees cities as patchworks of relationships and improvisations.Introduced by scholars like Ignacio Farias, an urban anthropologist focused on technological and infrastructural urban change, and AbdouMaliq Simone, a sociologist known for his work on African cities and informality, this approach offers a vocabulary for complexity and contradiction. It examines cities made of sensors and encampments, logistics hubs and wetlands. Colin McFarlane, a geographer who studies how cities function and evolve — especially in places often overlooked in mainstream planning — shows how urban learning spreads through these networks that cross places and scales. As the built environment becomes more fragmented and multi-scalar, this lens offers a way to map the friction and fluidity of emergent urban life.Postcolonial and Feminist Urbanisms. This lens challenges who gets to define the city, and how. Ananya Roy, a scholar of global urbanism and housing justice, Jennifer Robinson, a geographer known for challenging Western-centric urban theory, and Leslie Kern, a feminist urbanist focused on gender and public space, all center the voices and experiences often sidelined by mainstream planning: women, racialized communities, and the so-called Global South. These are regions, not always in the Southern Hemisphere, that have historically been colonized, exploited, or marginalized by dominant empires of the so-called Global North. These frameworks put care, informality, and embodied experience in the foreground — not as soft supplements to be ‘considered', but as central to urban survival. They ask: whose knowledge counts and whose mobility is prioritized? In a world of precarity and patchwork governance, these lenses offer both critique and more fair and balanced paths forward.Typological and Morphological Studies. These older, traditional lenses are reemerging through new tools. Once associated with the static physical form of cities, these traditions are finding renewed relevance through machine learning and spatial data. These approaches originate from architectural history and geography, where typology refers to recurring building patterns, and morphology to the shape and structure of urban space. Scholars like Saverio Muratori and Gianfranco Caniggia, both architects, emphasized interpreting urban fabric as a continuous, evolving record of social life. As mentioned last week, British geographer M. R. G. Conzen introduced town-plan analysis, a method for understanding how plots and street systems change over time. Today, this lineage is extended by Laura Vaughan, an urbanist who studies how spatial form reflects social patterns, and Geoff Boeing, a planning scholar using computational tools to analyze and visualize urban form also mentioned last week. AI models now interpret urban imagery, using historical patterns to predict future trends. This approach is evolving into a kind of algorithmic archaeology. However, unchecked it could reinforce existing spatial norms instead of challenging them. This stresses the importance of reflection, ethics, and debate about the implications and outcomes of these models…and who benefits most.While these lenses don't yet dominate design codes or capital flows, they do shape how we think and talk about our cities. And isn't that where all transformation begins?CHOOSING PATHS IN AFTERMATHSConcepts don't emerge in a vacuum. History shows us how they arise from the anxiety and urgency of uncertainty. As historian Elias Palti reminds us, frameworks gain traction when once dominant and grounding meanings begin crumbling under our feet. That's when we invent or seek new ways to make sense of our shifting ground. Donna Haraway, a pioneering feminist scholar in science and technology studies, urges us to stay with this mess and imagine new futures from within it. She describes these moments as opportunities to 'stay with the trouble' — to resist closure, dwell in complexity, and imagine alternatives from within the uncertainty.Historically, moments of systemic crisis — from the 1770s to the 1840s, the 1930s to the 1960s — have sparked shifts not just in spatial form, but in the conceptual tools used to understand and design it. Revolutionary and reformist movements have often carried with them new ways of seeing: Enlightenment ideals, socialist critiques, environmental consciousness, and decolonial frameworks. We may be living through another such moment now — where the cracks in the old invite us to rethink the categories that built it.In 1960, five years before I was born, British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan gave a speech called “Wind of Change”. It was a public acknowledgement of the decline of British empire and the rise of anti-colonial nationalism around the globe. Delivered in apartheid South Africa, it was a rare moment of elite recognition that a global shift in political and spatial order was already underway. Britain's imperial dominance was fading just as American dominance was solidifying.Today, we see echoes of that moment. The U.S. is facing economic fragmentation, growing inequality, and diminishing global legitimacy, while China asserts itself as a counterweight. Resistance and unrest in places like Palestine, Ukraine, Yemen, Congo, Sudan, Kashmir, (and many more) mirror the turbulence of previous historic transitions. Once again, the global “winds of change” are shifting, strengthening, and unpredictably swirling. It can be disorienting. But the frameworks I've outlined above are more than cold attempts at academic neutral observations, they can serve as lenses of orientation. They help guide what we see, what we measure, and what we ignore. And in doing so, they shape what futures become possible.Some frameworks are widely used but lack ethical depth. Others are less common but are full of imagination and ethical reconfigurations. The lenses we prioritize in public policy, early education, design, and discussion will shape whether our future systems perpetuate existing inequalities or purge them.This is not just an academic choice. It's a civic one.While macro forces of capital or climate are beyond our control, it is possible to shape the narratives that impact our responses. The question remains whether space should continue being optimized for logistics and financial speculation, or if there is potential to focus on ecological repair, historical redress, and spatial justice.Future developments will be influenced by current thoughts. The most impactful decision in urban design may come down to us all being more intentional in selecting the concepts that guide us forward.REFERENCES This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit interplace.io

Hello Interactors,Cities are layered by past priorities. I was just in Overland Park, Kansas, where over the last 25 years I've seen malls rise, fall, and shift outward as stores leave older spaces behind.When urban systems shift — due to climate, capital, codes, or crisis — cities drift. These changes ripple across scales and resemble fractal patterns, repeating yet evolving uniquely.This essay traces these patterns: past regimes, present signals, and competing questions over what's next.URBAN SCRIPTS AND SHIFTING SCALESAs cities grow, they remember.Look at a city's form — the way its streets stretch, how its blocks bend, where its walls break. These are not neutral choices. They are residues of regimes. Spatial decisions shaped by power, fear, belief, or capital.In ancient Rome, cities were laid out in strict grids. Streets ran along two axes: the cardo and decumanus. It made the city legible to the empire — easy to control, supply, and expand. Urban form followed the logic of conquest.As cartography historian, O. A. W. Dilke writes,“One of the main advantages of a detailed map of Rome was to improve the efficiency of the city's administration. Augustus had divided Rome into fourteen districts, each subdivided into vici. These districts were administered by annually elected magistrates, with officials and public slaves under them.”In medieval Europe, cities got messy. Sovereignty was fragmented. Trade replaced tribute. Guilds ran markets as streets tangled around church and square. The result was organic — but not random. It reflected a new mode of life: small-scale, interdependent, locally governed.In 19th-century Paris, the streets changed again. Narrow alleys became wide boulevards. Not just for beauty — for visibility and force. Haussmann's renovations made room for troops, light, and clean air. It was urban form as counter-revolution.Then came modernism. Superblocks, towers, highways. A form that made sense for mass production, cheap land, and the car. Planning became machine logic — form as efficiency.Each of these shifts marked the arrival of a new spatial calculus — ways of organizing the built environment in response to systemic pressures. Over time, these approaches came to be described by urbanists as morphological regimes: durable patterns of urban form shaped not just by architecture, but by ideology, infrastructure, and power. The term “morphology” itself was borrowed from biology, where it described the structure of organisms. In urban studies, it originally referred to the physical anatomy of the city — blocks, plots, grids, and streets. But today the field has broadened. It's evolved into more of a conceptual lens: not just a way of classifying form, but of understanding how ideas sediment into space. Today, morphology tracks how cities are shaped — not only physically, but discursively and increasingly so, computationally. Urban planning scholar Geoff Boeing calls urban form a “spatial script.” It encodes decisions made long ago — about who belongs where, what gets prioritized, and what can be seen or accessed. Other scholars treated cities like palimpsests — a term borrowed from manuscript studies, where old texts were scraped away and overwritten, yet traces remained. In urban form, each layer carries the imprint of a former spatial logic, never fully erased. Michael Robert Günter (M. R. G.) Conzen, a British geographer, pioneered the idea of town plan analysis in the 1960s. He examined how street patterns, plot divisions, and building forms reveal historical shifts. Urban geographer and architect, Anne Vernez Moudon brought these methods into contemporary urbanism. She argued that morphological analysis could serve as a bridge between disciplines, from planning to architecture to geography. Archaeologist Michael E. Smith goes further. Specializing in ancient cities, Smith argues that urban form doesn't just reflect culture — it produces it. In early settlements, the spatial organization of plazas, roads, and monuments actively shaped how people understood power, social hierarchy, and civic identity. Ritual plazas weren't just for ceremony — they structured the cognitive and social experience of space. Urban form, in this sense, is conceptual. It's how a society makes its world visible. And when that society changes — politically, economically, technologically — so does its form. Not immediately. Not neatly. But eventually. Almost always in response to pressure from the outside.INTERVAL AND INFLECTIONUrban morphology used to evolve slowly. But today, it changes faster — and with increasing volatility. Physicist Geoffrey West, and other urban scientists, describes how complex systems like cities exhibit superlinear scaling: as they grow, they generate more innovation, infrastructure, and socio-economic activity at an accelerating pace. But this growth comes with a catch: the system becomes dependent on continuous bursts of innovation to avoid collapse. West compares it to jumping from one treadmill to another — each one running faster than the last. What once took centuries, like the rise of industrial manufacturing, is now compressed into decades or less. The intervals between revolutions — from steam power to electricity to the internet — keep shrinking, and cities must adapt at an ever-faster clip just to maintain stability. But this also breeds instability as the intervals between systemic transformations shrink. Cities that once evolved over centuries can now shift in decades.Consider Rome. Roman grid structure held for centuries. Medieval forms persisted well into the Renaissance. Even Haussmann's Paris boulevards endured through war and modernization. But in the 20th century, urban morphology entered a period of rapid churn. Western urban regions shifted from dense industrial cores to sprawling postwar suburbs to globalized financial districts in under a century — each a distinct regime, unfolding at unprecedented speed.Meanwhile, rural and exurban zones transformed too. Suburbs stretched outward. Logistics corridors carved through farmland. Industrial agriculture consolidated land and labor. The whole urban-rural spectrum was redrawn — not evenly, but thoroughly — over a few decades.Why the speed?It's not just technology. It's the stacking of exogenous shocks. Public health crises. Wars. Economic crashes. Climate shifts. New empires. New markets. New media. These don't just hit policy — they hit form.Despite urbanities adaptability, it resists change. But when enough pressure builds, it breaks and fragments — or bends fast.Quantitative historians like Peter Turchin describe these moments as episodes of structural-demographic pressure. His theory suggests that as societies grow, they cycle through phases of expansion and instability. When rising inequality, elite overproduction, and resource strain coincide, the system enters a period of fragility. The ruling class becomes bloated and competitive, public trust erodes, and the state's ability to mediate conflict weakens. At some point, the social contract fractures — not necessarily through revolution, but through cumulative dysfunction that demands structural transformation.Cities reflect that process spatially. The street doesn't revolt. But it reroutes. The built environment shows where power has snapped or shifted. Consider Industrial Modernity. Assuming we start in 1850, it took roughly 100 years before the next regime took shape — the Fordist-Suburban Expansion starting in roughly 1945. It took around 30-40 years for deregulation to hit in the 80s. By 1995 information, communication, and technology accelerated globalization, financialization, and the urban regime we're currently in — Neoliberal Polycentrism.Neoliberal Polycentricism may sound like a wonky and abstract term, but it reflects a familiar reality: a pattern of decentralized, uneven urban growth shaped by market-driven logics. While some scholars debate the continued utility of the overused term 'neoliberalism' itself, its effects on the built environment remain visible. Market priorities continue to dominate and reshape spatial development and planning norms. It is not a wholly new spatial condition. It's the latest articulation of a longer American tradition of decentralizing people and capital beyond the urban core. In the 19th century, this dynamic took shape through the rise of satellite towns, railroad suburbs, and peripheral manufacturing hubs. These developments were often driven by speculative land ventures, private infrastructure investments, and the desire to escape the regulatory and political constraints of city centers. The result was a form of urban dispersal that created new nodes of growth, frequently insulated from municipal oversight and rooted in socio-economic and racial segregation. This early polycentricism, like fireworks spawning in all directions from the first blast, set the stage for later waves of privatized suburbanization and regional fragmentation. Neoliberalism would come to accelerate and codify this expansion.It came in the form of edge cities, exurbs, and special economic zones that proliferated in the 80s and 90s. They grew not as organic responses to demographic needs, but as spatial products of deregulated markets and speculative capital. Governance fragmented. Infrastructure was often privatized or outsourced. As Joel Garreau's 1991 book Edge City demonstrates, a place like Tysons Corner, Virginia — a highway-bound, developer-led edge city — embodied this shift: planned by commerce, not civic vision. A decade later, planners tried to retrofit that vision — adding transit, density, and walkability — but progress has been uneven, with car infrastructure still shaping much of daily life.This regime aligned with the rise of financial abstraction and logistical optimization. As Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman argue in Underground Empire, digital finance extended global capitalism's reach by creating a networked infrastructure that allowed capital to move seamlessly across borders, largely outside the control of democratic institutions. Cities and regions increasingly contorted themselves to host these flows — rebranding, rezoning, and reconfiguring their form to attract global liquidity.At the same time, as historian Quinn Slobodian notes, globalism was not simply about market liberalization but about insulating capital from democratic constraint. This logic played out spatially through the proliferation of privatized enclaves, special jurisdictions, and free trade zones — spaces engineered to remain separate from public oversight while remaining plugged into global markets.In metro cores, this led to vertical Central Business Districts, securitized plazas, and speculative towers. In the suburbs and exurbs, it encouraged the low-density, car-dependent landscapes that still propagate. It's still packaged as freedom but built on exclusion. In rural zones, the same logic produces logistics hubs, monoculture farms, and fractured small towns caught precariously between extraction and abandonment.SEDIMENT AND SENTIMENTWhat has emerged in the U.S., and many other countries, is a fragmented patchwork: privatized downtowns, disconnected suburbs, branded exurbs, and digitally tethered hinterlands…often with tax advantages. All governed by the same regime, but expressed through vastly different forms.We're in a regime that promised flexibility, innovation, and shared global prosperity — a future shaped by open markets, technological dynamism, and spatial freedom. But that promise is fraying. Ecological and meteorological breakdown, housing instability, and institutional exhaustion are revealing the deep limits of this model.The cracks are widening. The pandemic scrambled commuting rhythms and retail flows that reverberate to this day. Climate stress reshapes assumptions about where and how to build. Platforms restructure access to space as AI wiggles its way into every corner. Through it all, the legitimacy of traditional planning models, even established forms of governing, weakens.Some historians may call this an interregnum — a space between dominant systems, where the old still governs in form, but its power to convince has faded. The term comes from political theory, describing those in-between moments when no single order fully holds. It's a fitting word for times like these, when spatial logic lingers physically but loses meaning conceptually. The dominant spatial logic remains etched in roads, zoning codes, and skylines — but its conceptual scaffolding is weakening. Whether seen as structural-demographic strain or spatial realignment, this is a moment of uncertainty. The systems that once structured urban life — zoning codes, master plans, market forecasts — may no longer provide a stable map. And that's okay. Interregnums, as political theorist Christopher Hobson reminds us, aren't just voids between orders — they are revealing. Moments when the cracks in dominant systems allow us to see what had been taken for granted. They offer space to reflect, to experiment, and to reimagine.Maybe what comes next is less of a plan and more of a posture — an attitude of attentiveness, humility, and care. As they advise when getting sucked out to sea by a rip tide: best remain calm and let it spit you out where it may than try to fight it. Especially given natural laws of scale theory suggests these urban rhythms are accelerating and their transitions are harder to anticipate. Change may not unfold through neat stages, but arrive suddenly, triggered by thresholds and tipping points. Like unsuspectingly floating in the warm waters of a calm slack tide, nothing appears that different until rip tide just below the surface reveals everything is.In that sense, this drifting moment is not just prelude — it is transformation in motion. Cities have always adapted under pressure — sometimes slowly, sometimes suddenly. But they rarely begin anew. Roman grids still anchor cities from London to Barcelona. Medieval networks persist beneath tourist maps and tangled streets. Haussmann's boulevards remain etched across Paris, shaping flows of traffic and capital. These aren't ghosts — they're framing. Living sediment.Today's uncertainty is no different. It may feel like a void, but it's not empty. It's layered. Transitions build on remnants, repurposing forms even as their meanings shift. Parcel lines, zoning overlays, server farms, and setback requirements — these are tomorrow's layered manuscripts — palimpsests.But it's not just physical traces we inherit. Cities also carry conceptual ones — ideas like growth, public good, infrastructure, or progress that were forged under earlier regimes. As historian Elias Palti reminds us, concepts are not fixed. They are contingent, born in conflict, and reshaped in uncertainty. In moments like this, even the categories we use to interpret urban life begin to shift. The city, then, is not just a built form — it's a field of meaning. And in the cracks of the old, new frameworks begin to take shape. The work now is not only to build differently, but to think differently too.REFERENCESDilke, O. A. W. (1985). Greek and Roman Maps. Cornell University Press.Boeing, Geoff. (2019). “Spatial Information and the Legibility of Urban Form.” Journal of Planning Education and Research, 39(2), 208–220.Conzen, M. R. G. (1960). “Alnwick, Northumberland: A Study in Town Plan Analysis.” Institute of British Geographers Publication.Moudon, Anne Vernez. (1997). “Urban Morphology as an Emerging Interdisciplinary Field.” Urban Morphology, 1(1), 3–10.Smith, Michael E. (2007). “Form and Meaning in the Earliest Cities: A New Approach to Ancient Urban Planning.” Journal of Planning History, 6(1), 3–47.West, Geoffrey. (2017). Scale: The Universal Laws of Life, Growth, and Death in Organisms, Cities, and Companies. Penguin Press.Turchin, Peter. (2016). Ages of Discord: A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History. Beresta Books.Garreau, Joel. (1991). Edge City: Life on the New Frontier. Doubleday.Farrell, Henry, & Newman, Abraham. (2023). Underground Empire: How America Weaponized the World Economy. Henry Holt.Slobodian, Quinn. (2023). Crack-Up Capitalism: Market Radicals and the Dream of a World Without Democracy. Metropolitan Books.Hobson, Christopher. (2015). The Rise of Democracy: Revolution, War and Transformations in International Politics since 1776. Edinburgh University Press.Palti, Elias José. (2020). An Archaeology of the Political: Regimes of Power from the Seventeenth Century to the Present. Columbia University Press. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit interplace.io

In this episode, I sit down with Mike Shelby, founder of Forward Observer and the Early Warning Network, to discuss the growing fractures within America's ruling class and the potential for civil conflict. As a former military intelligence analyst, Mike breaks down the dynamics of intra-elite competition, how it fuels instability, and what warning signs we should be watching for.We also dive into historical parallels, the role of information warfare, and how ordinary Americans can prepare for the possibility of political and social upheaval. Whether you're a security professional, law enforcement officer, or just someone who wants to understand the future of our country, this is a conversation you don't want to miss.Resources:Early Morning NetworkGet the book: Area Intelligence Handbook, Mike ShelbySupport the showBecome a Premium Member: Get Members Only Content on our Substack page. Click here.Link up with us:Website: Pearl Snap TacticalInstagram: Pearl Snap Tactical X: Pearl Snap TaciticalThe views and opinions expressed by the guests do not necessarily reflect those of the host, this podcast or affiliates. The information provided in these shows are for educational purposes do not constitute legal advice. Those interest in training in the use of firearms or other self-defense applications are advised to seek out a professional, qualified instructor.(Some of the links in the episode show notes are affiliate links. This means that if you make a purchase through these links, we may earn a commission at no additional cost to you. We only recommend products or services we have personally used and believe will add value to our listeners.)

“El grado en que las élites económicas dominan el gobierno de este país es excepcional en comparación con otras democracias occidentales; la explicación, en los efectos de la historia y la geografía”: Peter Turchin en su libro Final de partida

(Conversation recorded on November 22nd, 2024)   The first few months of the new year have brought a cacophony of political news and power plays, bringing with it an uproar of public outrage in the United States and around the world. In the midst of an unprecedented moment in modern history, what can history – and even mathematics – teach us about moments of political unrest and upheaval?  In this episode, Nate is joined by complexity scientist, Peter Turchin, to discuss his work modeling the key factors that drive patterns of peace, turmoil, and revolution in nations throughout history - and how those connect to the situation in the United States today. Turchin outlines the cyclical nature of ‘elite overproduction' and its role in political disintegration, emphasizing the importance of economic inequality and elite struggles for control. How does a declining standard of living, as seen in the U.S. over recent decades, affect a nation's stability, civic engagement, and levels of violence? In what ways has history been shaped by the ‘wealth pump' moving economic power towards the hands of the few? Lastly, how can we use these historical lessons to strengthen our communities and act collectively in times of chaos and instability?    About Peter Turchin: Peter Turchin is a complexity scientist who works in the field of historical social science that he and his colleagues call Cliodynamics. His research interests lie at the intersection of social and cultural evolution,  historical macrosociology, economic history and cliometrics, mathematical modeling of long-term social processes, and the construction and analysis of historical databases. Currently his main research effort is directing the Seshat Databank project (and its offshoot, CrisisDB) which builds and analyzes a massive historical database that enables us to empirically test predictions from theories attempting to explain why and how complex human societies evolved, and why they periodically experience political breakdown. Turchin has authored ten books. His most recent books are End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration and The Great Holocene Transformation (forthcoming).   Show Notes and More Watch this video episode on YouTube   Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.   ---   Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future Join our Substack newsletter Join our Discord channel and connect with other listeners  

Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University wonders, now the wheels are coming off the government's bus, if Labour is pivoting to the right, with rumoured welfare cuts, implementing the university free speech law and scrapping the banning of gas boilers by 2035. If so, how will the Conservatives react? He strongly recommends Peter Turchin's book, "End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites an Indicators of Revolution" and what it means for our times. And he discusses the probable change in government in Canada in the autumn and whether a new Conservative government will reconsider the role of the state. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Molly Reynolds and Kevin Frazier to discuss the week's big national security news, including:“Mike Drop (Almost).” While we are still two weeks away from having a new president, the 119th Congress is already underway. But there are signs of tension in the Republican majority controlling both chambers, with House Republicans (under pressure from former President Trump and adviser Elon Musk) having killed a leadership-negotiated compromise funding bill at the end of the last Congress and Speaker Mike Johnson just barely securing reelection by a single vote after some last minute wrangling within the Republican caucus. What do these recent events tell us about what we should expect over the next year?“Will Be Mild.” The Jan. 6 that passed earlier this week went very differently than the one four years ago, with Congress peacefully recognizing former President Trump's election back to the White House. How are the legacies of the Jan. 6 insurrection of 2021 winding to a close in 2025? And which seem likely to persist?“Missed Connections.” Finland received an unwelcome Christmas present this year, after a major undersea telecommunications cable was damaged by the anchor of a suspected Russian shadow ship, in an act some believe was deliberate. And Taiwan rang in the New Year in similar fashion, with a major undersea cable getting damaged by a China-associated vessel. What is behind this set of attacks? And what tools do the affected states have to defend themselves?In object lessons, Molly shared an excellent holiday tradition to keep in your back pocket for next year and all the years to come: a family time capsule. Scott shared his newly perfected cocktail recipe, a concoction he is calling the Little Palermo™ (see below). And Kevin went a bit darker with his recommendation of “End Times,” by Peter Turchin.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.The Little Palermo™ by Scott R. Anderson1 oz. brandy1 oz. cold brew concentrate3/4 oz. Mr. Black coffee liqueur3/4 oz. Averna1/4 oz. rich demerara syrup2 dashes chicory bittersShake vigorously over ice, double strain into a glass, express lemon oil over the top.Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/lawfare. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Molly Reynolds and Kevin Frazier to discuss the week's big national security news, including:“Mike Drop (Almost).” While we are still two weeks away from having a new president, the 119th Congress is already underway. But there are signs of tension in the Republican majority controlling both chambers, with House Republicans (under pressure from former President Trump and adviser Elon Musk) having killed a leadership-negotiated compromise funding bill at the end of the last Congress and Speaker Mike Johnson just barely securing reelection by a single vote after some last minute wrangling within the Republican caucus. What do these recent events tell us about what we should expect over the next year?“Will Be Mild.” The Jan. 6 that passed earlier this week went very differently than the one four years ago, with Congress peacefully recognizing former President Trump's election back to the White House. How are the legacies of the Jan. 6 insurrection of 2021 winding to a close in 2025? And which seem likely to persist?“Missed Connections.” Finland received an unwelcome Christmas present this year, after a major undersea telecommunications cable was damaged by the anchor of a suspected Russian shadow ship, in an act some believe was deliberate. And Taiwan rang in the New Year in similar fashion, with a major undersea cable getting damaged by a China-associated vessel. What is behind this set of attacks? And what tools do the affected states have to defend themselves?In object lessons, Molly shared an excellent holiday tradition to keep in your back pocket for next year and all the years to come: a family time capsule. Scott shared his newly perfected cocktail recipe, a concoction he is calling The Little Palermo™ (see below). And Kevin went a bit darker with his recommendation of “End Times,” by Peter Turchin.To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.The Little Palermo™ by Scott R. Anderson1 oz. brandy1 oz. cold brew concentrate3/4 oz. Mr. Black coffee liqueur3/4 oz. Averna1/4 oz. rich demerara syrup2 dashes chicory bittersShake vigorously over ice, double strain into a glass, express lemon oil over the top. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Donald Trump wielokrotnie wypowiadał się krytycznie na temat wsparcia USA dla Ukrainy w konflikcie z Rosją, sugerując, że pomoc finansowa i militarna dla Ukrainy powinna być bardziej ograniczona. Czy jego wybór oznacza złe nastroje w Kijowie? O tym dr Marek Kozubel. Peter Turchin. Czasy ostateczne. Elity, kontrelity i ścieżka dezintegracji politycznej - Wydawnictwo Prześwity. Patronat - Podróż bez Paszportu. https://mtbiznes.pl/przeswity/produkt/czasy-ostateczne

Siły Obronne Izraela twierdzą, że odnalazły bunkier pełny złota i gotówki. Proces pokojowy - wizyta przedstawicieli USA w Izraelu. Komentarz Pawła Rakowskiego.

Het rapport van Mario Draghi over het concurrentievermogen van Europa is het gesprek van de dag in de wandelgangen van bedrijven en overheden. Volgens Draghi staat Europa economisch gezien voor een "existentiële uitdaging": als we niet nú vól inzetten op een sterkere concurrentiepositie, dan leggen we het af tegen China en de VS. Er staat inderdaad heel veel op het spel, en het onderwerp is relevant voor iedereen, niet alleen voor economen en beleidsmakers. In deze aflevering maken podcasthost Allard Amelink en econoom Paul Schenderling dit cruciale onderwerp voor jou behapbaar en begrijpelijk. We slikken daarbij de conclusies en aanbevelingen van Draghi niet voor zoete koek. Ja, Europa staat voor een existentiële uitdaging, maar níet op de manier die Draghi ons voorhoudt. Hoe dat zit en waarom relevant dit is voor iedereen, hoor je in deze aflevering.Bronnen die ter sprake komen in deze aflevering:- Het rapport-Draghi: https://commission.europa.eu/document/download/97e481fd-2dc3-412d-be4c-f152a8232961_en?filename=The%20future%20of%20European%20competitiveness%20_%20A%20competitiveness%20strategy%20for%20Europe.pdf- Twee boeken over de VS: Underground Empire van Henry Farrell en Abraham Newman en End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration van Peter Turchin.- Een boek over China: Vampire State: The Rise and Fall of the Chinese Economy. - Een boek over de opkomst van moderne fabriekssystemen: Behemoth: A History of the Factory and the Making of the Modern World van Joshua Freeman.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit zeteo.comBomb threats to schools in Ohio attended by immigrants, an assassination attempt on a presidential candidate, and an increase in threats to federal judges are just a few examples of the heightened level of political violence in the United States. Much has been written about Donald Trump's hateful rhetoric and incendiary language but what will happen if he loses the election? A study last year showed that violence is gaining mainstream acceptance, with one-third of Republicans saying that violence may be the answer to saving the US. As the election approaches, can we totally discount the idea of a ‘civil war' in the US? Some say that this has all been a long-time coming. Jack Goldstone, an expert on Civil Unrest, practically predicted January 6th, writing alongside Peter Turchin less than two months before the 2020 election: “Is the US likely headed for still greater protests and violence? In a word, yes.”In fact, Goldstone had already predicted over 25 years ago that in the 21st century, the US would elect a populist America-first leader who would inflict division and chaos onto the country.Jack Goldstone, Professor of Public Policy at George Mason University joins this episode of ‘Mehdi Unfiltered' together with one of the top experts on fascism, New York University's History Professor Ruth Ben-Ghiat, the author of ‘Strongmen: Mussolini to the Present.' “What it would mean is an end to the lawful processes that we believe in. Revolutions have changed, they're more peaceful than they used to be, and we could have civil strife that changes our institutions,” said Goldstone.Ben-Ghiat cautioned that as “we saw on January 6th, [for them] violence is the way you change history. And that goes back to fascism, and it's also part of communism… This is what demagogues do, they have to condition people to see violence differently.”Watch the important, and at times disturbing, discussion above to hear the analysis of this particular political moment, what role language and rhetoric play in setting the stage for upheaval, and even whether a coup may be in the cards.

Harvey Whitehouse, author of Inheritance: The Evolutionary Origins of the Modern World, rejoins Jason Pack for part 2 of their discussion. The duo discuss: whether nationalism can be used for good (rather than just as a calling card for Neo-Populists and disorderers); whether playing off of evolutionary biases towards in-group solidarity might be necessary to solve the collective action problems of today's world, how putting policy creation in the hands of citizens assemblies might help us Order the Disorder; and what lessons traditional religiosity could teach us about creating Order.     Twitter: @DisorderShow    Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/       Producer: George McDonagh  Exec Producer: Neil Fearn    Show Notes Links  Get Harvey's book, Inheritance: The Evolutionary Origins of the Modern World   https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/451443/inheritance-by-whitehouse-harvey/9781529152227    For more on Harvey and his amazing breadth of research: https://www.harveywhitehouse.com/     Explore the ideas of Peter Turchin's ‘Ultrasociety': https://peterturchin.com/book/ultrasociety/   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Send us a Text Message.Feeling a bit uneasy about everything going on right now? You're not alone. With trust in the government at rock bottom, the economy going downhill fast, and talk of world war looming, it's no wonder we're all on edge. But here's something to think about: what if all this chaos is part of a bigger, predictable pattern? In today's episode, we're diving into some fascinating ideas that explain why societies rise and fall. By the end, you'll have a better understanding of what's happening and how to navigate these turbulent times. Stick around, because this insight might just be what you need to make sense of it all.Why You Should ListenUnderstanding the deeper patterns behind societal collapse can provide clarity and guidance in these uncertain times. By tuning in to this episode, you'll gain valuable insights into the forces shaping our world today. Here's what you can expect to learn:Historical Cycles: Discover the 250-year pattern of rise and fall in empires as explained by Sir John Glubb.Generational Shifts: Learn about Neil Howe's "Fourth Turning" and the generational cycles that drive societal change.Elite Dynamics: Understand Peter Turchin's theory of elite overproduction and its impact on societal stability.Gradual Decline: Explore John Michael Greer's concept of catabolic collapse and how gradual resource depletion leads to decline.The practical insights from today's show will help you better navigate and respond to the current societal turmoil.By grasping these cyclical patterns, you'll be better equipped to make sense of today's challenges and prepare for the future.Resources:Fate of Empires, Sir John GlubbThe Fourth Turning, Neil Howe & William StraussEnd Times, Peter TurchinDark Age America, John Michael GreerSupport the Show.If you'd like to support the show, please consider a donation at https://www.buymeacoffee.com/pearlsnapLink up with us:Website: https://www.BarritusDefense.comInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thebarritusFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/TheBarritus(Some of the links in the episode show notes are affiliate links. This means that if you make a purchase through these links, we may earn a commission at no additional cost to you. We only recommend products or services we have personally used and believe will add value to our listeners.)

Jason gives an overview of the current state of various real estate markets, highlighting a slight sellers' advantage with the national median price at $453,000. He underscored the diversified nature of real estate as an asset class and invited attendees to join the upcoming free monthly Zoom meeting with Tom Wheelwright. Additionally, he thanked those who participated in the previous night's empowered investor pro meeting. Then Jason finishes up his talk with Peter Turchin. When too many people compete for limited positions, it leads to widespread crisis, a trend observed in over 200 historical instances. This "illiterate production" causes societal instability as rule-breaking becomes rampant, leading to violence. Popular immigration and overproduction of elite aspirants further exacerbate the issue by creating a large pool of discontented individuals. Economic disparity and precarious living conditions fuel social unrest, potentially leading to civil wars or revolutions. To avoid such outcomes, societies must align wage growth with productivity and reduce wealth concentration. Learning from history, addressing structural problems can prevent collapse and promote societal well-being. https://peterturchin.com/ #PeterTurchin #Cliodynamics #ComplexityScience #SocialDisintegration #EliteOverproduction #HistoricalTrends #PoliticalInstability #MathematicalModeling #CulturalEvolution #WealthInequality Key Takeaways: Jason's editorial 1:55 Rising national housing inventory 3:15 Hunstsville, Birmingham AL, Jacksonville FL, Memphis TN housing inventory 4:05 I.I.D.D 4:31 JasonHartman.com/Wednesday Peter Turchin's interview part 2 6:33 Precarity, elites and counter elites and the overproduction of lawyers 10:49 Where do we go from here 14:59 We need a strong middle class society 18:39 Demographics and automation, Ai, robotics, etc. 23:43 Developing the science of societies 25:28 Blog post: Mastering the Art of Selling Lots and Land The Complete Starter on the Topic   Follow Jason on TWITTER, INSTAGRAM & LINKEDIN Twitter.com/JasonHartmanROI Instagram.com/jasonhartman1/ Linkedin.com/in/jasonhartmaninvestor/ Call our Investment Counselors at: 1-800-HARTMAN (US) or visit: https://www.jasonhartman.com/ Free Class:  Easily get up to $250,000 in funding for real estate, business or anything else: http://JasonHartman.com/Fund CYA Protect Your Assets, Save Taxes & Estate Planning: http://JasonHartman.com/Protect Get wholesale real estate deals for investment or build a great business – Free Course: https://www.jasonhartman.com/deals Special Offer from Ron LeGrand: https://JasonHartman.com/Ron Free Mini-Book on Pandemic Investing: https://www.PandemicInvesting.com  

Jason discusses history and it's complexities with complexity scientist guest Peter Turchin. Jason also updates listeners on recent events, including a collective mastermind in Orlando and an upcoming talk at the Rebel Capitalist event. He promotes the Empowered Investor Pro membership, highlighting its benefits and exclusive monthly Zoom meetings, featuring guest Tom Wheelwright discussing tax-free wealth. Hartman shares a property investment opportunity in Huntsville, Alabama, emphasizing its potential for high returns through income, depreciation, equity growth, and leverage. He encourages listeners to use the free Property Tracker software https://www.propertytracker.com for investment analysis. Join the monthly Zoom meeting via https://www.jasonhartman.com/wednesday. Jason then welcomes Peter Turchin, a complexity scientist specializing in cliodynamics, accurately predicted in 2010 that the US would face social disintegration around 2020. Cliodynamics combines cultural evolution, economic history, and mathematical modeling to analyze historical processes and predict future trends. Turchin's models identified elite overproduction—too many elites vying for limited power—as a key factor in societal breakdowns. The resulting competition among elites destabilizes political systems, leading to increased social unrest. Turchin's insights into the dynamics of wealth and power in societies provide a scientific approach to understanding and potentially mitigating future crises. https://peterturchin.com/ #PeterTurchin #Cliodynamics #ComplexityScience #SocialDisintegration #EliteOverproduction #HistoricalTrends #PoliticalInstability #MathematicalModeling #CulturalEvolution #WealthInequality Key Takeaways: Jason's editorial 1:19 Join our FREE Empowered Investor Pro monthly Zoom meeting 3:02 Amazing Hunstville property proforma that's IDEAL Peter Turchin's interview 7:52 Introducing Peter and Cliodynamics 11:49 2010 Analysis of historical data 13:48 Elite overproduction: 4 different powers and America and plutocracy 18:29 Where do we go from here 21:45 Why having many wealthy people is bad for society   Follow Jason on TWITTER, INSTAGRAM & LINKEDIN Twitter.com/JasonHartmanROI Instagram.com/jasonhartman1/ Linkedin.com/in/jasonhartmaninvestor/ Call our Investment Counselors at: 1-800-HARTMAN (US) or visit: https://www.jasonhartman.com/ Free Class:  Easily get up to $250,000 in funding for real estate, business or anything else: http://JasonHartman.com/Fund CYA Protect Your Assets, Save Taxes & Estate Planning: http://JasonHartman.com/Protect Get wholesale real estate deals for investment or build a great business – Free Course: https://www.jasonhartman.com/deals Special Offer from Ron LeGrand: https://JasonHartman.com/Ron Free Mini-Book on Pandemic Investing: https://www.PandemicInvesting.com  

On this episode, Nate is joined by philosopher and educator Zak Stein to discuss the current state of education and development for children during a time of converging crises and societal transformation. As the pace of life continues to accelerate - including world-shaking technological developments - our schools struggle to keep pace with changes in cultural expectations. What qualities are we encouraging in a system centered on competition and with no emphasis on creating agency or community participation? How is unfettered technology and artificial intelligence influencing youth - and what should parents, adults, and teachers be doing in response? What could the future of education look like if guided by true teacherly authority with the aim to create well-rounded, stable young humans with a sense of belonging and purpose in their communities?  About Zak Stein:  Dr. Zak Stein is a philosopher of education, as well as a Co-founder of the Center for World Philosophy and Religion. He is also the Co-founder of Civilization Research Institute, the Consilience Project, and Lectica, Inc. He is the author of dozens of published papers and two books, including Education in a Time Between Worlds.  PDF Transcript Show Notes 00:00 - Zak Stein works + Info, Civilization Research Institute, Education in a Time Between Worlds, Center for World Philosophy and Religion, First Principles and First Values  03:24 - No Child Left Behind 03:56 - Joseph Tainter + TGS episode 03:53 - Iatrogenic  05:30 - Daniel Schmachtenberger (TGS Episodes), Ken Wilbur, Marc Gafney 16:01 - Effects of screens and social media on teen mental health 16:54 - Marshall McLuhan 17:20 - The importance of adult boundary and limit setting for children 18:17 - How social media affects the brain 19:06 - The rise of ADHD in the 90s and effects on education - a timeline 19:58 - Hypercompetitive primary education systems 20:20 - High level of stress and cheating in primary education 22:28 - Scandinavian school systems 26:27 - Cold war effects on the education system 26:35 - Sputnik 27:25 - Tech elites don't give their kids tech 28:35 - Elite overproduction, Peter Turchin 34:10 - Your Unique Self  37:28 - Iain McGilchrist + TGS Episode 38:02 - Moral Relativism 43:27 - Foundations of advertising  47:07 - Negatives of standardized testing 47:22 - Donald T. Cambell - Campbell's law 48:57 - Nature vs Nurture Debate 49:20 - Cooperation and competition 52:10 - Effects of a competitive school environment 55:02 - The effects of an above-and-beyond teacher 55:42 - Legitimate teacherly authority 59:55 - Importance of the environment in the first 5 years of life 1:02:20 - John Dewey 1:10:31 - The best way to learn is to teach 1:11:40 - David Graeber, Bullshit Jobs 1:15:25 - How standardized testing increased high education access 1:16:08 - Civilian Conservation Corp, Lawrence A. Cremin 1:17:02 - New Deal 1:22:07 - Risks around artificial intelligence 1:24:58 - Rise of relationships with AI 1:28:41 - First Chatbot ELIZA 1:30:01 - Electricity use of AI 1:37:30 - The Future of Human Nature 1:41:19 - Peak Oil 1:42:29 - Mental Health Crisis 1:46:35 - Correlation of COVID with IQ loss Watch this video episode on YouTube

Jim talks with Simon DeDeo about their wager concerning the likelihood of civil violence and mass killings in America in the next decade. They discuss the terms of the wager, the appropriate orders of magnitude, Alex Garland's Civil War, the American readiness to use violence, honor cultures, the movement from violence to political violence, industrial mass murder, polarization, the one-dimensionality of current elites, basins of attraction, statistical distributions of violence, Rene Girard's theory of mimetic desire, measuring political distance, the constant motion of contemporary American political views, tribalization around red-blue politics, door-holding & just-so stories, sexual signaling, the unreality of woke debates, accumulating factors that could lead to a brushfire, gun rights, the dilettantism of extremist groups, 3 specific scenarios of inciting conflicts, making sense of a post-ideological world, the question of who rules, and much more. Episode Transcript JRS EP 1 - Simon DeDeo on the Evolution of Consciousness JRS Currents 001: Simon DeDeo on University Censorship JRS Currents 028: Simon DeDeo on Explaining Explanation JRS EP 202 - Neil Howe on the Fourth Turning JRS EP 190 - Peter Turchin on Cliodynamics and End Times JRS EP 104 - Joe Henrich on WEIRD People JRS EP 230 - James Lindsay on a National Divorce JRS Currents 058: John Robb on Russia-Ukraine Outcomes Simon DeDeo is an Assistant Professor at Carnegie Mellon University in the Department of Social and Decision Sciences, and External Professor at the Santa Fe Institute. He is also affiliated with the Cognitive Science program at Indiana University, where he runs the Laboratory for Social Minds. For three years, from 2010 to 2013, he was an Omidyar Fellow at the Santa Fe Institute. He and his collaborators study how people use words and signals, and the ideas they represent, to create a world. They have studied a diverse set of systems that includes the French Revolution, the courtrooms of Victorian London, the research strategies of Charles Darwin, the insurgency of modern-day Afghanistan, the emergent bureaucracy of Wikipedia, the creation of power hierarchies among the social animals, and the collusions and conspiracies of petrol stations in the American Midwest. They combine data from the contemporary world, archives from the deep past, statistical tools from cosmology, and models of human cognition from Bayesian reasoning and information theory to understand how cultures grow, flourish, innovate, and evolve.

Tuesday, April 16, 2024   Hoover Institution | Stanford University The Hoover History Working Group held a seminar on Cliodynamics of End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites and the Path of Political Disintegration with Peter Turchin on Tuesday, April 16, 2024 from 1:30 pm - 3:00 pm PT. The book is available for purchase here. ABOUT THE TALK Social and political turbulence in the United States and Western European countries has been rising over the past decade. Our research, which combines analysis of historical data with the tools of complexity science, has identified the deep structural forces that work to undermine societal stability and resilience to internal and external shocks. Here I look beneath the surface of day-to-day contentious politics and social unrest, and focus on the negative social and economic trends that explain our current “Age of Discord.” One of the most important, but little appreciated, such hidden forces is a perverse “wealth pump” that, under certain conditions, begins to transfer wealth from the “99 percent” to “1 percent.” If allowed to run unchecked, the wealth pump results in both relative impoverishment of most people and increasingly desperate competition among elites. Since the number of positions of real social power remains more or less fixed, the overproduction of elites inevitably leads to frustrated elite aspirants, who harness popular resentment to turn against the established order. In America, the wealth pump has been operating full blast for two generations. In historical terms, our current cycle of elite overproduction and popular immiseration is far along the path to violent political rupture. ABOUT THE SPEAKER Peter Turchin is Project Leader at the Complexity Science Hub–Vienna, Research Associate at University of Oxford, and Emeritus Professor at the University of Connecticut. His research interests lie at the intersection of social and cultural evolution, historical macrosociology, economic history, mathematical modeling of long-term social processes, and the construction and analysis of historical databases. A founder of the field of Cliodynamics, his books include End Times (2023) and Ultrasociety (2016).

Check out Softwarekeep here and use the coupon code WhatifAlthist20 https://softwarekeep.com/bestsellers?... Bibliography: A Secular Age by Charles Taylor Lost Connections by Johann Hari Stolen Focus by Johann Hari The Happiness Hypothesis by John Haidt The Coddling of the American Mind by John Haidt The Culture of Narcissism by Lasch The Master and His Emissary by McGhilChrist Forgotten Truth by Houston Smith Evil by Baumeister Trauma and the Soul by Kalsched The Inner World of Trauma by Kalsched The True Believer by Eric Hoffer Envy by Helmut Schoeck The Knowledge Machine by Strevens The Web of Meaning by Jeremy Lent Seculosity by David Zahl The World's Religions by Huston Smith Strange Rites by Burton Lineages of Modernity by Todd Immanuel The Past is a Future Country by Edward Dutton Spiteful Mutants by Edward Dutton The Lonely Crowd by David Riesman Empty Planet by Darrell Bricker Disunited Nations by Peter Zeihan Secular Cycles by Peter Turchin by David Hackett Fischer

Jim talks with Douglas Rushkoff about the ideas in his podcast monologue/Substack post "Why I'm Finally Leaving X and Probably All Social Media." They discuss Douglas's history with social media, the early social internet, Facebook's parasitism of legacy news, the decontextualization of content, The WELL, owning your own words, leaving Facebook in 2013, Jim's social media sabbaticals, the opportunity to create an info agent, the number of daily interruptions, attention-deficit disorder as an adaptive strategy, books versus articles, effects of long-term social media use, the quest for nominal identity, how careful curation improves X, using social media as a professional writer, the organic in-between, strong vs weak social links, the ability of strong links to hold & metabolize, how the internet spawns billionaires, airline subsidies, Girardian mimesis, liberal universal humanism, rebuilding embodied life at the Dunbar number, John Vervaeke's "religion that is not a religion," starting where you are, and much more. Episode Transcript "Why I'm Finally Leaving X and Probably All Social Media," by Douglas Rushkoff Team Human, by Douglas Rushkoff Throwing Rocks at the Google Bus: How Growth Became the Enemy of Prosperity, by Douglas Rushkoff The WELL JRS EP30 - Nora Bateson on Complexity & the Transcontextual JRS EP 184 - Dave Snowden on Managing Complexity in Times of Crisis JRS EP 190 - Peter Turchin on Cliodynamics and End Times JRS EP 170 - John Vervaeke and Jordan Hall on The Religion That Is Not a Religion Named one of the “world's ten most influential intellectuals” by MIT, Douglas Rushkoff is an author and documentarian who studies human autonomy in a digital age. His twenty books include the just-published Survival of the Richest: Escape Fantasies of the Tech Billionaires, as well as the recent Team Human, based on his podcast, and the bestsellers Present Shock, Throwing Rocks at the Google Bus, Program or Be Programmed, Life Inc, and Media Virus. He also made the PBS Frontline documentaries Generation Like, The Persuaders, and Merchants of Cool. His book Coercion won the Marshall McLuhan Award, and the Media Ecology Association honored him with the first Neil Postman Award for Career Achievement in Public Intellectual Activity. Rushkoff's work explores how different technological environments change our relationship to narrative, money, power, and one another. He coined such concepts as “viral media,” “screenagers,” and “social currency,” and has been a leading voice for applying digital media toward social and economic justice. He is a research fellow of the Institute for the Future, and founder of the Laboratory for Digital Humanism at CUNY/Queens, where he is a Professor of Media Theory and Digital Economics. He is a columnist for Medium, and his novels and comics, Ecstasy Club, A.D.D, and Aleister & Adolf, are all being developed for the screen.

In this episode, Sarah and Sheri reflect on the Richard Heinberg interview as it relates to the message of their new book So That We and Our Children May Live: Following Jesus in Confronting the Climate Crisis. (https://www.mennomedia.org/9781513812946/so-we-and-our-children-may-live/) We discuss why we are hopeful despite the polycrisis described in both our new book and in the interview with Richard. We also talk about why conspiracy theories like QAnon are onto something true and why it is important to be in kinship and solidarity with the working-class and poor people who believe these theories. Note: At the beginning of this episode, we refer to a segment of the interview with Richard that wasn't included in the previous episode. It's a segment where he talks about the work of complexity scientist Peter Turchin. If you want to listen to that 7-minute segment – shameless plug alert! – you can do so by subscribing to Sarah's and my new Substack (https://sarahsheri.substack.com/), where you will get a quite personal weekly reflection on ecological justice, decolonization, faith, and hope for our future. We'll begin posting Nov. 30. We refer to this podcast episode, “Insects – A Silent Extinction” (https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/90-nick-haddad) on Nate Hagens' “The Great Simplification.” You can follow the Coalition to Dismantle the Doctrine of Discovery on Instagram (@coalitiontodismantle) and Facebook (https://www.facebook.com/dismantlediscovery)

Jim talks with Jack Visnjic, aka Lantern Jack, about Polybius's theory of anacyclosis and cyclical history. They discuss the origins of the name Lantern Jack, cyclical patterns in history, a one-minute history of the first millennium B.C., public gain vs private gain, Polybius's concept of anacyclosis, great man theory vs processes & institutions, examples of anacyclosis, whether Rome was ever a democracy, critiques of anacyclosis, corruption & collective reaction, imperialistic growth, the Glorious Revolution in 1688, why Spain & France didn't transition to aristocracy, anacyclosis in the modern world, Polybius's influence on the Founding Fathers of the U.S., the impressiveness of the Founding Fathers, mobocracy, fighting to the death over second- and third-order issues, the crisis epoch, factional division as a feature not a bug, and much more. Episode Transcript Ancient Greece Declassified (Podcast) Lantern Jack on YouTube The Invention of Duty: Stoicism as Deontology, by Jack Visnjic JRS EP 190 - Peter Turchin on Cliodynamics and End Times Jack Visnjic is a classicist and historian of philosophy interested in uncovering long-term patterns in history. He earned his PhD from Princeton University with a dissertation on the origins of the notion of moral duty. He later expanded that project into a book titled The Invention of Duty: Stoicism as Deontology. For several years he was director of research at the Anacyclosis Institute, a think tank which seeks to understand the trajectory of modern democracy by studying the long history of democracies. And his biggest passion is his podcast Ancient Greece Declassified, through which he strives to make the Classics accessible and relevant to a broad audience.

When Nick warned back in 2013 that the pitchforks were coming, he meant that if we continued immiserating the majority of citizens by enriching a wealthy few at the expense of everyone else, an uprising was inevitable. Unfortunately, this warning is still just as relevant ten years later. Peter Turchin joins the podcast to discuss his new book, End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration, which looks to history (as well as the current turmoil in the United States) to better understand exactly what causes political communities to fall apart. Peter Turchin is Project Leader at the Complexity Science Hub in Vienna, Research Associate at University of Oxford, and Emeritus Professor at the University of Connecticut. End Times https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/703238/end-times-by-peter-turchin  Nick's new book, Corporate Bullsh*t, is out now! https://www.corporatebsbook.com  Website: http://pitchforkeconomics.com Twitter: @PitchforkEcon Instagram: @pitchforkeconomics Nick's twitter: @NickHanauer

Jim talks with Neil Howe about the ideas in his new book, The Fourth Turning Is Here: What the Seasons of History Tell Us About How and When This Crisis Will End. They discuss 3 ways humans have understood time, the break with cyclical time, how linear progress gives rise to social cycles, generational change, how phase of life alters the impact of events, coining the term Millennial, generational cycles, the meaning and nature of saecula, the Great Awakenings, Turnings & commonalities between them, imagining Turnings as seasons, supply & demand for order, collective generational personalities, the current strengthening of families & multi-generational living, opposite experiences in the same phase of living, the growing gender divide, stages of a Fourth Turning, the recent primacy of political differences, extreme mobilization of publics, the acquiring of executive authority, the chances that an endogenous cataclysm kills .1 percent of the U.S. population, commonality through difference, why Fourth Turnings are not horrible accidents, Ekpyrosis, what a new spring might look like, why huge reforms are only enacted in times of crisis, and much more. Episode Transcript The Fourth Turning Is Here: What the Seasons of History Tell Us About How and When This Crisis Will End, by Neil Howe JRS EP 190 - Peter Turchin on Cliodynamics and End Times Neil Howe is the Managing Director of Demography at Hedgeye Risk Management, an independent financial research firm, as well as President of LifeCourse Associates. Howe is a renowned authority on generations and social change in America. An acclaimed bestselling author and speaker, he is the nation's leading thinker on today's generations—who they are, what motivates them, and how they will shape America's future.

Episode 500: Sam Parr (https://twitter.com/theSamParr) talks to Jason Yanowitz (https://twitter.com/JasonYanowitz) founder of Blockworks, which covers crypto news, information and analytics. Jason shares the revenue numbers behind Blockworks, the secret to hosting profitable events, and why he would put 100% of his portfolio in crypto if his wife would let him.  Want to see more MFM? Subscribe to our YouTube channel here. Want MFM Merch? Check out our store here. Want to see the best clips from MFM? Subscribe to our clips channel here. — Check Out Sam's Stuff: • Hampton - https://www.joinhampton.com/ • Ideation Bootcamp - https://www.ideationbootcamp.co/ • Copy That - https://copythat.com/ Check Out Shaan's Stuff: • Try Shepherd Out - https://www.supportshepherd.com/ • Shaan's Personal Assistant System - http://shaanpuri.com/remoteassistant • Power Writing Course - https://maven.com/generalist/writing • Small Boy Newsletter - https://smallboy.co/ • Daily Newsletter - https://www.shaanpuri.com/ — Show Notes: (0:00) Intro (1:45) Blockworks revenue and profitability (4:00) How to crush it with a conference (10:00) Conferences are really 3-day marketplaces (15:00) Jason's accidental MLM success story (23:00) The difference between MLMs and pyramid schemes (27:00) How Sam Ovens inspired Blockworks (30:00) The fallacy of founder origin stories (35:00) How Sam is optimizing his life (40:00) Business Idea: Beehiiv for Conferences (45:00) Business Idea: Hair transplants for the masses (48:00) Blockworks Research (55:00) Where is Jason putting his money? (1:00:00) How Sam thinks about crypto — Links: • Blockworks - https://blockworks.co/ • Blockworks Research - https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ • Blockworks Twitter - https://twitter.com/blockworks_ • Jason's Twitter - https://twitter.com/JasonYanowitz • Sam Ovens Consulting company - https://www.consulting.com/ • Peter Turchin - https://peterturchin.com/ • beehiiv - https://www.beehiiv.com/ • Eventbrite - https://www.eventbrite.com/ • Splash - https://splashthat.com/ • Hopin acquisition - https://tinyurl.com/2zn2kk3p • ‘Elon Musk,' by Walter Isaacson - https://tinyurl.com/bde53vpr • Jeff Bezo's Regret Minimization Framework - https://tinyurl.com/m34hmyfk Past guests on My First Million include Rob Dyrdek, Hasan Minhaj, Balaji Srinivasan, Jake Paul, Dr. Andrew Huberman, Gary Vee, Lance Armstrong, Sophia Amoruso, Ariel Helwani, Ramit Sethi, Stanley Druckenmiller, Peter Diamandis, Dharmesh Shah, Brian Halligan, Marc Lore, Jason Calacanis, Andrew Wilkinson, Julian Shapiro, Kat Cole, Codie Sanchez, Nader Al-Naji, Steph Smith, Trung Phan, Nick Huber, Anthony Pompliano, Ben Askren, Ramon Van Meer, Brianne Kimmel, Andrew Gazdecki, Scott Belsky, Moiz Ali, Dan Held, Elaine Zelby, Michael Saylor, Ryan Begelman, Jack Butcher, Reed Duchscher, Tai Lopez, Harley Finkelstein, Alexa von Tobel, Noah Kagan, Nick Bare, Greg Isenberg, James Altucher, Randy Hetrick and more. — Other episodes you might enjoy: • #224 Rob Dyrdek - How Tracking Every Second of His Life Took Rob Drydek from 0 to $405M in Exits • #209 Gary Vaynerchuk - Why NFTS Are the Future • #178 Balaji Srinivasan - Balaji on How to Fix the Media, Cloud Cities & Crypto • #169 - How One Man Started 5, Billion Dollar Companies, Dan Gilbert's Empire, & Talking With Warren Buffett • ​​​​#218 - Why You Should Take a Think Week Like Bill Gates • Dave Portnoy vs The World, Extreme Body Monitoring, The Future of Apparel Retail, "How Much is Anthony Pompliano Worth?", and More • How Mr Beast Got 100M Views in Less Than 4 Days, The $25M Chrome Extension, and More

Peter Turchin is a complexity scientist and one of the founders of cliodynamics — a new, cross-disciplinary field that applies mathematics and big data to test historical theories. Full transcript available at: jnwpod.com.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jim talks with Michael R.J. Bonner about the ideas in his book In Defense of Civilization: How Our Past Can Renew Our Present. They discuss the meaning of civilization, Gobekli Tepe, why technological change didn't bring about civilization, how civilization produces clarity, beauty, and order, why civilization is preferable to the alternatives, the limits of cities, the dynamics of collapse, Francis Fukuyama's end of history idea, revivals, how interconnectivity leads to fragility, the Bronze Age collapse, the collapse of Rome, cultural pluralism & academic freedom in the 9th century, the paradoxical outcome of the Renaissance, the rediscovery of Aristotle, combining Enlightenment clarity with medieval expansiveness, the evils of postmodernism, the dark side of Romanticism, the basis of religious belief, public ritual vs religious belief, futurism, the limits of skepticism, wokism as a religion, the need for grand narratives, a common humanity, and much more. Episode Transcript In Defense of Civilization: How Our Past Can Renew Our Present, by Michael R.J. Bonner Seeing Like a State: How Certain Schemes to Improve the Human Condition Have Failed, by James C. Scott JRS EP 190 - Peter Turchin on Cliodynamics and End Times The Fourth Turning Is Here: What the Seasons of History Tell Us About How and When This Crisis Will End, by Neil Howe JRS Currents 100: Sara Walker and Lee Cronin on Time as an Object The Collapse of Complex Societies, by Joseph A. Tainter JRS EP 106 - Michael Strevens on the Irrational History of Science Dr Michael Bonner is a Canadian communications and public-policy expert with more than a decade of service in federal and provincial government. He is a historian of ancient Iran, holds a doctorate in Oriental Studies from the University of Oxford, and is a contributing editor to The Dorchester Review. His new book In Defense of Civilization: How Our Past Can Renew Our Present was published by the Sutherland House in April of 2023.

In this episode we discuss End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration by Peter Turchin. Next week we will discuss Up From Conservatism by Michael Lind.

Peter Turchin is not like most historians.  For starters, he has an unusual background as an evolutionary biologist studying lemmings and mice. He says that analyzing the complexities of the natural world has allowed him to understand the most complex system of all: human society. He has pioneered a field of history that he calls cliodynamics that applies hundreds of thousands, maybe millions, of historical data points to a mathematical model in order to understand the present and to predict future trends. Using these tools, Peter and his team published an article in the journal Nature in 2010 making a bold prediction. They said that economic, social, and political instability in the United States would hit a “peak” in or around the year 2020. Many of Turchin's critics said he was crazy to make such a speculation, that it's too hard to predict how history will progress, that the study of history is more art than science. But then came 2020. It turned out to be a massively turbulent year, one that would bring outbreaks of political violence that the U.S. hadn't experienced in decades. It felt like complete chaos, between Covid lockdowns, mask and vaccine protests, BLM riots, and then, only six days into 2021, the storming of the Capitol in Washington, D.C.  What did Peter see that everyone else missed? Peter is the author of over 200 articles and eight books, and his fascinating new one is called End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration. It argues that societies operate cyclically, going through golden ages and end times. And he says that we're currently looking at the telltale signs of an imminent revolution.  On today's show, Peter talks to us about how he studies history, what American history can tell us about our current moment, why 2024 is going to be a year to watch, and what individuals can do to change the direction of history. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Harrison Stetler discusses recent riots in France. Peter Turchin, complexity theorist and author of End Times, explains why the US is heading for a smashup.Behind the News, hosted by Doug Henwood, covers the worlds of economics and politics and their complex interactions, from the local to the global. Find the archive online. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Peter Turchin is Project Leader at the Complexity Science Hub in Vienna, Research Associate at University of Oxford, and Emeritus Professor at the University of Connecticut. Trained as a theoretical biologist, he is now working in the field of historical social science. Currently his main research effort is directed at coordinating CrisisDB, a massive historical database of societies sliding into a crisis—and then emerging from it.Peter Turchin's new book is “End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration.”

Behind the News, 7/13/23 - guests: Harrison Stetler on the riots in France • Peter Turchin, complexity theorist, on why the US is heading for a smashup - Doug Henwood

Scientist-turned-historian Peter Turchin returns! Peter first came on the pod a few months ago to discuss the famous prediction he made in 2010 that we were headed for crisis, circa 2020. Last time, we covered the controversy he's stirred up within the historical discipline, the methodologies behind cliodynamics/his data-based predictions, and the drivers of social unrest (in particular, elite overproduction). This conversation — recorded on the heels of the publication of his new book End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration — we pick up where we left off. Peter explains it all: how do we prevent all-out civil war? What's the most likely outcome if we keep on the path we're currently on? And is he more of a Harry Seldon or a Leto II?Check out our ‘Uncertainty' newsletter for updates and rants. To support us and gain access to exclusive content, consider becoming a paid member of Uncertain on Substack. Follow @UncertainPod on your social media of choice.On the agenda:-L'intro [0:00-3:30]-A quick re-cap [3:30-7:29]-Breaking the rules [7:30-15:04]-Clearly in crisis [15:05-19:28]-The British Empire circa 1848 (the Chartist Period) [19:29-26:57]-A huge outpouring of human misery [26:58-33:46]-Culture as a prerequisite for reform [33:47-40:57]-The social psychology of the New Deal [40:58-45:22]-A new generation of elites without a culture of reform [45:23-53:48]-Designing a science of history [53:49-58:05]-Charismatic Jesus Types [58:06-1:10:48]Uncertain Things is hosted and produced by Adaam James Levin-Areddy and Vanessa M. Quirk. For more doomsday rumination, subscribe to: uncertain.substack.com. Get full access to Uncertain Things at uncertain.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode we discuss two books by Joan Didion: The White Album and Miami. Next time we'll discuss End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration by Peter Turchin.

Jim talks with Peter Turchin about the field he founded, cliodynamics, which applies the scientific method to history. They discuss the meaning & origins of cliodynamics, distinguishing cliodynamics from previous approaches, regularizing historical data, the interface between models & data, average height as a proxy for biological well-being, the Seshat data collection project, observed patterns in collapsing societies, the overproduction of elites, relative vs absolute wage, the wealth pump, relative well-being, a top-heavy social pyramid, defining elites, failed aspirant elites as the raw material for radical movements, why lawyers are the most dangerous profession, the Musk-Zuckerman duel as a sign of increased intra-elite competition, the issue of prediction, the intensification of secessionist sentiment in the U.S., how the British Empire avoided the revolutions of 1848, shutting down the wealth pump, increasing minimum wage, the odds that a revolution would be good for society, and much more. Episode Transcript End Times: Elites, Counter Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration, by Peter Turchin Historical Dynamics: Why States Rise and Fall, by Peter Turchin War and Peace and War: The Rise and Fall of Empires, by Peter Turchin Ultrasociety: How 10,000 Years of War Made Humans the Greatest Cooperators on Earth, by Peter Turchin The True Believer, by Eric Hoffer Peter Turchin is a complexity scientist who works in the field of historical social science that he and his colleagues call Cliodynamics. His research interests lie at the intersection of social and cultural evolution,  historical macrosociology, economic history and cliometrics, mathematical modeling of long-term social processes, and the construction and analysis of historical databases. Currently his main research effort is directing the Seshat Databank project (and its offshoot, CrisisDB) which builds and analyzes a massive historical database that enables us to empirically test predictions from theories attempting to explain why and how complex human societies evolved, and why they periodically experience political breakdown.

Subscribe to The Realignment to access our exclusive Q&A episodes and support the show: https://realignment.supercast.com/Peter's 2010 Nature Article: https://www.nature.com/articles/463608aREALIGNMENT NEWSLETTER: https://therealignment.substack.com/PURCHASE BOOKS AT OUR BOOKSHOP: https://bookshop.org/shop/therealignmentEmail Us: realignmentpod@gmail.comFoundation for American Innovation: https://www.thefai.org/posts/lincoln-becomes-faiPeter Turchin, author of End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration, joins The Realignment. Peter and Marshall discuss his 2010 prediction that the U.S. would experience significant political turmoil in 2020, the factors that drove 2010-2020s political conflict, why the elite-overproduction phenomenon is one of the strongest determinants of societal health, and the historical precedents of nations remaining unified in the face of the above challenges. 

What can we learn about the decline of the west from the fall of the Roman Empire? Was decline inevitable for Rome and is it inevitable for the US too? Historian Peter Heather is the co-author of Why Empires Fall, a new book exploring the parallels between the 5th century and the 21st. He joined Luke Naylor Perrott to explore what new lessons we can learn from ancient history. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Peter Turchin is a social scientist at the University of Connecticut who studies the math of social integration and disintegration. Peter created the field of Cliodynamics and delves into how he predicts the trajectory of social cohesion based on historical data from 200 societies, why elite overproduction is bad, and how we can avoid disaster by learning from the past. Watch this episode on YouTube: https://youtu.be/RnSnR2koijM End Times - https://amzn.to/3NSLqJT Follow Peter Turchin: https://peterturchin.com | https://twitter.com/Peter_Turchin Follow Andrew Yang: https://twitter.com/andrewyang | https://andrewyang.com To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The idea that history is cyclical is hardly new. But exactly what drives those cycles is up for debate. On this week's Merryn Talks Money, Peter Turchin, author of End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites and the Path of Political Disintegration, suggests he's solved the puzzle.  Sign up to John Stepek's daily newsletter Money Distilled. https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/uk-wealth See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

High levels of political violence and low levels of institutional support suggest we are in the midst of an age of discord. What can we learn from the cycles of history about political disintegration and recovery? Peter Turchin predicted the tumult. He points to our large class of aspiring elites competing for power without advancing the living standards of most Americans. The past suggests that our choices are either a mostly unchallenged elite who moderate how much of the economic pie they capture or a prolonged conflict over power among overproduced elites.

History is not just one thing after another. Historians spend lifetimes figuring out how X event in medieval France impacted Y event in 20th century Polynesia, but none of them have truly ‘done the math’ like this week’s guest. Coming from a background in applied mathematics, Peter Turchin has gathered an unprecedented amount of historical […]

If you have grown up in a household which had decent quality of life and now you are struggling, you cannot even match the degree of wellbeing that your parents achieved, this is very obvious and makes people feel completely dissatisfied with the system that we have now.Peter TurchinAccess Bonus Episodes on PatreonMake a one-time Donation to Democracy Paradox.A full transcript is available at www.democracyparadox.com.Peter is a complexity scientist who has established a new field of social science research called cliodynamics. He is the author of the book End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration,Key HighlightsIntroduction - 0:45The Crisis - 3:05Elites - 11:54Popular Immiseration - 30:59Cliodynamics - 43:40Key LinksEnd Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration by Peter TurchinCliodynamics: The Journal of Quantitative History and Cultural EvolutionLearn more about Peter TurchinDemocracy Paradox PodcastMartin Wolf on the Crisis of Democratic CapitalismFrancis Fukuyama Responds to Liberalism's DiscontentsMore Episodes from the PodcastMore InformationDemocracy GroupApes of the State created all MusicEmail the show at jkempf@democracyparadox.comFollow on Twitter @DemParadox, Facebook, Instagram @democracyparadoxpodcast100 Books on DemocracySupport the show

In this week's Book Club podcast I talk to Peter Turchin about his new book End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites and the Path of Political Disintegration. He proposes a scientific theory of history, mapping the underlying forces that have led to the collapse of states from the ancient world to the present day, and warns of very turbulent times ahead indeed. 

In this week's Book Club podcast I talk to Peter Turchin about his new book End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites and the Path of Political Disintegration. He proposes a scientific theory of history, mapping the underlying forces that have led to the collapse of states from the ancient world to the present day, and warns of very turbulent times ahead indeed. 

Frank and David discuss Peter Turchin's new book and if the United States is headed for collapse. Last Drops Frank: Charles Portis in Library of America David: Civil War Institute at Gettysburg College

Peter Turchin has continued the work of Ibn Khaldun, by elaborating upon Khaldun's hypotheses and testing them against the wealth of historical data that we now possess. By means of a structural demographic analysis of historical empires, Turchin has worked for years to generate mathematical models in order to explain the trends that seem to recur in every complex society. Now, with the data of 10,000 years of human activity on the group level, it may be possible to finally move beyond the preliminary, pseudo-scientific steps of the discipline of history, and proceed into a truly mathematized phase. This is the discipline that Turchin calls "Cliodynamics", after the Muse of history of Ancient Greece. His intention to leave behind the anthropological and archaeological studies that characterized history in the past, and bring mathematics into the field so that we can begin to make predictions. The reason why many have been so resistant to this development is our belief in free will, and the unpredictability of human action. Turchin thinks that this is a mistake, because while individual decisions are often unpredictable at the individual, granular level, at the level of entire populations or demographics, human beings become rather predictable. Quite in line with the cyclical view of history postulated by Plato, Thucydides, or Nietzsche, Turchin brings the math to demonstrate the truth of their ideas: that, in the realm of human history, all returns eternally. For our sources today, we're primarily using Turchin's books: War and Peace and War, Ultrasociety, and a brief dip at the end into the overall idea of Ages of Discord, as well as some references to Secular Cycles by Turchin and Nefedov. We'll also include a number of quotes from Roman historians Livy, Plutarch and others, as we examine the period of the Roman Republic, the chaos of the Late Republic and the transition to the Principate, as explained by Turchin's structural-demographic theory. This should be fun, given that we've already considered these events somewhat through the eyes of Machiavelli. Now, we can approach the subject with more rigor. In my view, Turchin is following in the traditions of these thinkers, but developing their work further. Episode art is Thomas Cole's now famous "Destruction" piece of his cycle, "The Course of Empire".

Jessica Lanyadoo thinks civil war is coming — she has seen it in the stars. But it isn't just astrologers who think we're living through an age of upheaval. Peter Turchin, a Soviet-born professor who studies historical cycles, has already seen one political system collapse in his lifetime. He calls this decade the Turbulent Twenties. Could our collective anxiety explain the rise of the new gurus? The New Gurus is a series about looking for enlightenment in the digital world. Written and presented by Helen Lewis Series Producers: Morgan Childs and Tom Pooley Story consultant: Geoff Bird Original music composed by Paper Tiger Sound design and mix: Rob Speight Editor: Craig Templeton Smith A Tempo & Talker production for BBC Radio 4 and BBC Sounds

Scientist-turned-historian Peter Turchin is best known for a dire prediction he made in 2010: we were headed for serious unrest, circa 2020. Peter came to this (as-so-happened) accurate prediction by treating the soft science of history like a hard one — what he calls cliodynamics. He and his team quantified indicators of social unrest in previous historical periods, generating a database of information, and then created a structural-dynamic model that could determine the biggest drivers of social violence and societal collapse. Peter, who's currently serving as the Project Leader at the Complexity Science Hub in Vienna, talks to us about his approach to history, the factors that are most responsible for our current period of unrest, and the actions that could, just maybe, divert us from Civil War II.  Check out our ‘Inscrutable' blog and ‘Uncertainty' newsletter for thoughts and rants. To support us and gain access to exclusive content, consider becoming a paid member of Uncertain on Substack. Follow @UncertainPod on your social media of choice.On the agenda:-Peter pre-amble and Vishaan post-script (0:00-7:01)-How cliodynamics work? (07:02-17:21)-Quantifying instability, locating gaps, and making predictions (17:22-28:33-The state of our present-day empire (28:34-38:28)-The trouble with too many elites (38:29-51:34)-How to stop an unfolding trainwreck (51:35-1:02:44)Uncertain Things is hosted and produced by Adaam James Levin-Areddy and Vanessa M. Quirk. For more doomsday rumination, subscribe to: uncertain.substack.com. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit uncertain.substack.com/subscribe

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/a-cyclic-theory-of-subcultures       David Chapman's Geeks, MOPs, and Sociopaths In Subculture Evolution is rightfully a classic, but it doesn't match my own experience. Either through good luck or poor observational skills, I've never seen a lot of sociopath takeovers. Instead, I've seen a gradual process of declining asabiyyah. Good people start out working together, then work together a little less, then turn on each other, all while staying good people and thinking they alone embody the true spirit of the movement. I find Peter Turchin's theories of civilizational cycles oddly helpful here, maybe moreso than for civilizations themselves. Riffing off his phase structure:

Today on MindMatters we discuss complexity scientist Peter Turchin's 2015 book, Ultrasociety: How 10,000 Years of War Made Humans the Greatest Cooperators on Earth. Turchin walks us through 10 millennia of human cultural evolution: from tribes and chiefdoms to the first states and empires, to our modern "ultrasocial" states. Contrary to pet theories and many ingenious hypotheses over the generations, the development of large, complex societies was not the result of agriculture or even ideas--the primer driver has been warfare: the technologies humans have developed to defend and conquer, the cooperation needed for both, and the cultural practices and values that developed and survived as a result. 

Today on MindMatters we discuss complexity scientist Peter Turchin's 2015 book, Ultrasociety: How 10,000 Years of War Made Humans the Greatest Cooperators on Earth. Turchin walks us through 10 millennia of human cultural evolution: from tribes and chiefdoms to the first states and empires, to our modern "ultrasocial" states. Contrary to pet theories and many ingenious hypotheses over the generations, the development of large, complex societies was not the result of agriculture or even...

Today on MindMatters we discuss complexity scientist Peter Turchin's 2015 book, Ultrasociety: How 10,000 Years of War Made Humans the Greatest Cooperators on Earth. Turchin walks us through 10 millennia of human cultural evolution: from tribes and chiefdoms to the first states and empires, to our modern "ultrasocial" states. Contrary to pet theories and many ingenious hypotheses over the generations, the development of large, complex societies was not the result of agriculture or even...

Vous êtes-vous déjà posé la question de savoir comment nous étions devenus capables de coopérer de cette manière ? Avec des inconnus et à l'échelle du globe ? C'est précisément à cette question que Piotr Valentinovitch Tourtchine (aka Peter Turchin), anthropologue évolutionniste russo — américain spécialisé dans l'évolution culturelle et la cliodynamique, propose de nous […]

Ezri & Derick compare Peter Turchin's attempt to formalize modes of production in Ages of Discord to marxist attempts to periodize history. produced & edited by Pat http://patreon.com/mortalscience http://emancipation.network

As a careful study of the world, science is reflective and reactive — it constrains our flights of fancy, anchors us in hard-won fact. By contrast, science fiction is a speculative world-building exercise that guides imagination and foresight by marrying the known with the unknown. The field is vast; some sci-fi writers pay less tribute to the line between the possible and the impossible. Others, though, adopt a far more sober tactic and write “hard” sci fi that does its best to stay within the limits of our current paradigm while rooting visions of the future that can grow beyond and beckon us into a bigger, more adventurous reality.The question we might ask, though, is: which one is which? Our bounded rationality, our sense for what is plausible, is totally dependent on our personal life histories, cultural conditioning, information diet, and social network biases. One person's linear projections seem too conservative; another person's exponential change seems like a fantasy. If we can say one thing about our complex world, it might be that it always has, and always will, defy our expectations…Welcome to COMPLEXITY, the official podcast of the Santa Fe Institute. I'm your host, Michael Garfield, and every other week we'll bring you with us for far-ranging conversations with our worldwide network of rigorous researchers developing new frameworks to explain the deepest mysteries of the universe.This week on Complexity, we join up with Caitlin McShea and the InterPlanetary Project's Alien Crash Site podcast for a wild discussion with SFI Trustee, technologist, and philosopher Gary Bengier about his science fiction novel Unfettered Journey. This book takes readers forward more than a century into a highly automated, highly-stratified post-climate-change world in which our protaganist defies the rigid norms of his society to follow fundamental questions about mind, life, purpose, meaning, consciousness, and truth. It is a perfect backdrop to our conversation on the role of complex systems science in our understanding of both present-day society and the futures that may, or may never, come to pass…If you value our research and communication efforts, please subscribe to Complexity Podcast wherever you prefer to listen, rate and review us at Apple Podcasts, and/or consider making a donation at santafe.edu/give.Thank you for listening!Join our Facebook discussion group to meet like minds and talk about each episode.Podcast theme music by Mitch Mignano.Follow us on social media:Twitter • YouTube • Facebook • Instagram • LinkedInGo Deeper With These Related MediaScience:Paul Smaldino: The evolution of covert signaling in diverse societiesGeoffrey West: ScaleBob May: Will a Large Complex System be Stable?Melanie Mitchell: The Collapse of Artificial IntelligenceMelanie Mitchell: On Crashing The Barrier of Meaning in AIElisa Heinrich Mora et al.: Scaling of Urban Income Inequality in the United StatesSFI ACtioN Climate Change Seminar: Complexity of SustainabilityRaissa D'Souza: The Collapse of NetworksDavid Krakauer: Preventative Citizen-Based MedicineSimon DeDeo & Elizabeth Hobson: From equality to hierarchyPeter Turchin: The Double Helix of Inequality and Well-BeingSpeculative Fiction:2019 IPFest World Building Panel Discussion with Rebecca Roanhorse, James S.A. Correy, and Cris MooreRobin Hanson: Age of EmAyn Rand: Atlas ShruggedPeter Watts: BlindsightIsaac Asimov: FoundationThe Strugatsky Brothers: Roadside PicnicPodcast Episodes:Complexity 10: Melanie Moses on Metabolic Scaling in Biology & ComputationComplexity 14: W. Brian Arthur (Part 2) on The Future of The EconomyComplexity 19: David Kinney on the Philosophy of ScienceComplexity 21: Melanie Mitchell on Artificial Intelligence: What We Still Don't KnowComplexity 22: Nicole Creanza on Cultural Evolution in Humans & SongbirdsComplexity 36: Geoffrey West on Scaling, Open-Ended Growth, and Accelerating Crisis/Innovation Cycles: Transcendence or Collapse? (Part 2)Complexity 51: Cris Moore on Algorithmic Justice & The Physics of InferenceThe Jim Rutt Show 152: Gary Bengier on Hard Sci-Fi Futures

According to historian Peter Turchin, for an empire to exist it requires a unifying ideology to overcome difference in race, culture and language from among its subjects. Because of this, “cooperation zones,” as Turchin calls empires. did not emerge until after the great world religions sprouted: Christianity, Islam, Buddhism, etc. The Roman Empire had Stoic ... The post The Reinvention of the Global Order appeared first on The New American.

What makes a satisfying explanation? Understanding and prediction are two different goals at odds with one another — think fundamental physics versus artificial neural networks — and even what defines a “simple” explanation varies from one person to another. Held in a kind of ecosystemic balance, these diverse approaches to seeking knowledge keep each other honest…but the use of one kind of knowledge to the exclusion of all others leads to disastrous results. And in the 21st Century, the difference between good and bad explanations determines how society adapts as rapid change transforms the world most people took for granted — and sends humankind into the epistemic wilds  to find new stories that will help us navigate this brave new world.This week we dive deep with SFI External Professor Simon DeDeo at Carnegie Mellon University to explore his research into intelligence and the search for understanding, bringing computational techniques to bear on the history of science, information processing at the scale of society, and how digital technologies and the coronavirus pandemic challenge humankind to think more carefully about the meaning that we seek, here on the edge of chaos…If you value our research and communication efforts, please subscribe to Complexity Podcast wherever you  listen, rate and review us at Apple Podcasts, and/or consider making a donation at santafe.edu/engage. Thank you for listening!Join our Facebook discussion group to meet like minds and talk about each episode.Podcast theme music by Mitch Mignano.Follow us on social media:Twitter • YouTube • Facebook • Instagram • LinkedInWorks Discussed:“From Probability to Consilience: How Explanatory Values Implement Bayesian Reasoning”Zachary Wojtowicz & Simon DeDeo (+ SFI press release on this paper)“Supertheories and Consilience from Alchemy to Electromagnetism”Simon DeDeo (SFI lecture video)“From equality to hierarchy”Simon DeDeo & Elizabeth HobsonThe Complex Alternative: Complexity Scientists on the COVID-19 PandemicSFI Press (with “From Virus to Symptom” by Simon DeDeo)“Boredom and Flow: An Opportunity Cost Theory of Attention-Directing Motivational States”Zachary Wojtowicz, Nick Chater, & George Loewenstein“Scale and information-processing thresholds in Holocene social evolution”Jaeweon Shin, Michael Holton Price, David H. Wolpert, Hajime Shimao, Brendan Tracey, & Timothy A. Kohler “Slowed canonical progress in large fields of science”Johan Chu and James Evans“Will A Large Complex System Be Stable?”Robert MayRelated Podcast Episodes:• Andy Dobson on Disease Ecology & Conservation Strategy• Nicole Creanza on Cultural Evolution in Humans & Songbirds• On Coronavirus, Crisis, and Creative Opportunity with David Krakauer• Carl Bergstrom & Jevin West on Calling Bullshit: The Art of Skepticism in a Data-Driven World• Vicky Yang & Henrik Olsson on Political Polling & Polarization: How We Make Decisions & Identities• David Wolpert on The No Free Lunch Theorems and Why They Undermine The Scientific Method• Science in The Time of COVID: Michael Lachmann & Sam Scarpino on Lessons from The Pandemic• Jonas Dalege on The Physics of Attitudes & Beliefs• Tyler Marghetis on Breakdowns & Breakthroughs: Critical Transitions in Jazz & MathematicsMentioned:David Spergel, Zachary Wojtowicz, Stuart Kauffman, Jessica Flack, Thomas Bayes, Claude Shannon, Sean M. Carroll, Dan Sperber, David Krakauer, Marten Scheffer, David Deutsch, Jaewon Shin, Stuart Firestein, Bob May, Peter Turchin, David Hume, Jimmy Wales, Tyler Marghetis

This week, Eric Kohn, Sam Gregg, and Dan Hugger discuss what Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortes' Met Gala tax-the-rich dress stunt says about the current state of our elites and of elite culture. Are our elites so frivolous because we've become frivolous? Or is it the other way around? And why are we so preoccupied with identifying hypocrisy rather than observing and highlighting the underlying implications of that hypocrisy, and the tributes that vice are paying to virtue when we find them? Then, they discuss the email sent to observant Jews at Barnard College in New York City, in effect demanding that they violate their Shabbat obligations to utilize technology for Covid-19 symptoms and to participate in contact tracing. Why is religious freedom so often an afterthought? Subscribe to Acton Unwind, Acton Line & Acton Vault A lady and her dress, &c. | Jay Nordlinger, National Review Barnard College Bureaucrat Apologizes After Using COVID-19 Protocols To Target Jewish Students | Daniella Greenbaum Davis, The Federalist Norm MacDonald on Bill Cosby How 'elite overproduction' and 'lawyer glut' could ruin the U.S. | Peter Turchin, Bloomberg Congress Is Weak Because Its Members Want It to Be Weak | Yuval Levin, Commentary The Revolt of The Public and the Crisis of Authority in the New Millennium | Martin Gurri Coming Apart: The State of White America, 1960–2010 | Charles Murray See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

This week, Eric Kohn, Sam Gregg, and Dan Hugger discuss what Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortes' Met Gala tax-the-rich dress stunt says about the current state of our elites and of elite culture. Are our elites so frivolous because we've become frivolous? Or is it the other way around? And why are we so preoccupied with identifying hypocrisy rather than observing and highlighting the underlying implications of that hypocrisy, and the tributes that vice are paying to virtue when we find them? Then, they discuss the email sent to observant Jews at Barnard College in New York City, in effect demanding that they violate their Shabbat obligations to utilize technology for Covid-19 symptoms and to participate in contact tracing. Why is religious freedom so often an afterthought? Subscribe to Acton Unwind, Acton Line & Acton Vault  A lady and her dress, &c. | Jay Nordlinger, National Review Barnard College Bureaucrat Apologizes After Using COVID-19 Protocols To Target Jewish Students | Daniella Greenbaum Davis, The Federalist Norm MacDonald on Bill Cosby How ‘elite overproduction’ and ‘lawyer glut’ could ruin the U.S. | Peter Turchin, Bloomberg Congress Is Weak Because Its Members Want It to Be Weak | Yuval Levin, Commentary The Revolt of The Public and the Crisis of Authority in the New Millennium | Martin Gurri Coming Apart: The State of White America, 1960–2010 | Charles Murray See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

It is time to review Secular Cycles by Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov. This was a fantastic book and I cover the book along with lessons I pulled from it. Discussion with Keen and Daniel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_3PJe9Dusgw #SecularCycles #Turchin #Nefedov #review #book #podcast

------------------Support the channel------------ Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/thedissenter PayPal: paypal.me/thedissenter PayPal Subscription 1 Dollar: https://tinyurl.com/yb3acuuy PayPal Subscription 3 Dollars: https://tinyurl.com/ybn6bg9l PayPal Subscription 5 Dollars: https://tinyurl.com/ycmr9gpz PayPal Subscription 10 Dollars: https://tinyurl.com/y9r3fc9m PayPal Subscription 20 Dollars: https://tinyurl.com/y95uvkao This show is sponsored by Enlites, Learning & Development done differently. Check the website here: http://enlites.com/ Dr. Daniel Hoyer currently holds a postdoctoral position working with Dr. Peter Turchin on the Deep Roots of the Modern World, part of the SESHAT: Global History Databank Project, a large-scale, interdisciplinary and comparative project hosted by the Evolution Institute and the University of Oxford. He is the author of Figuring Out The Past: The 3,495 Vital Statistics that Explain World History. In this episode, we focus on Figuring Out The Past. We start by discussing some possible limitations of (narrative) History, and what SHESHAT's approach has to offer. We talk about many different kinds of patterns we find across societies and across time, and how societies are similar but also differ from one another. We discuss cultural evolution, how it works in different domains, and things like rates of innovation. We ask why societies rise and fall. We discuss the role religion plays in society. We also talk about how to make sense of some of the statistics presented in the book, particularly the ones related to standing armies, collective rituals, monuments, and cultural tools like calendars, law codes, and bureaucracy. Finally, we ask if it is possible to use these date to understand contemporary events and to predict future events. -- A HUGE THANK YOU TO MY PATRONS/SUPPORTERS: KARIN LIETZCKE, ANN BLANCHETTE, PER HELGE LARSEN, LAU GUERREIRO, JERRY MULLER, HANS FREDRIK SUNDE, BERNARDO SEIXAS, HERBERT GINTIS, RUTGER VOS, RICARDO VLADIMIRO, CRAIG HEALY, OLAF ALEX, PHILIP KURIAN, JONATHAN VISSER, JAKOB KLINKBY, ADAM KESSEL, MATTHEW WHITINGBIRD, ARNAUD WOLFF, TIM HOLLOSY, HENRIK AHLENIUS, JOHN CONNORS, PAULINA BARREN, FILIP FORS CONNOLLY, DAN DEMETRIOU, ROBERT WINDHAGER, RUI INACIO, ARTHUR KOH, ZOOP, MARCO NEVES, COLIN HOLBROOK, SUSAN PINKER, THOMAS TRUMBLE, PABLO SANTURBANO, SIMON COLUMBUS, PHIL KAVANAGH, JORGE ESPINHA, CORY CLARK, MARK BLYTH, ROBERTO INGUANZO, MIKKEL STORMYR, ERIC NEURMANN, SAMUEL ANDREEFF, FRANCIS FORDE, TIAGO NUNES, BERNARD HUGUENEY, ALEXANDER DANNBAUER, OMARI HICKSON, FERGAL CUSSEN, YEVHEN BODRENKO, HAL HERZOG, NUNO MACHADO, DON ROSS, JONATHAN LEIBRANT, JOÃO LINHARES, OZLEM BULUT, NATHAN NGUYEN, STANTON T, SAMUEL CORREA, ERIK HAINES, MARK SMITH, J.W., JOÃO EIRA, TOM HUMMEL, SARDUS FRANCE, DAVID SLOAN WILSON, YACILA DEZA-ARAUJO, IDAN SOLON, ROMAIN ROCH, DMITRY GRIGORYEV, TOM ROTH, DIEGO LONDOÑO CORREA, YANICK PUNTER, ADANER USMANI, CHARLOTTE BLEASE, NICOLE BARBARO, ADAM HUNT, PAWEL OSTASZEWSKI, AL ORTIZ, NELLEKE BAK, KATHRINE AND PATRICK TOBIN, GUY MADISON, GARY G HELLMANN, SAIMA AFZAL, ADRIAN JAEGGI, NICK GOLDEN, PAULO TOLENTINO, AND JOÃO BARBOSA! A SPECIAL THANKS TO MY PRODUCERS, YZAR WEHBE, JIM FRANK, ŁUKASZ STAFINIAK, IAN GILLIGAN, SERGIU CODREANU, LUIS CAYETANO, TOM VANEGDOM, CURTIS DIXON, BENEDIKT MUELLER, VEGA GIDEY, AND NIRUBAN BALACHANDRAN! AND TO MY EXECUTIVE PRODUCERS, MICHAL RUSIECKI, ROSEY, JAMES PRATT, AND MATTHEW LAVENDER!

We're back after a pause precipitated by various conflicting projects and commitments. This week Mark and Charles had the honour to welcome to the show the author, futurist and social commentator Max Borders. Max is the author of The Social Singularity: How decentralization will allow us to transcend politics, create global prosperity, and avoid the robot apocalypse, and After Collapse: The End of America and the Rebirth of Her Ideals. Borders' work around the idea of a coming "social singularity" has a lot of overlap with oft explored ideas here on the Axis: decentralization, networks and tectonic shifts occurring in the world today. We explored the concept of "Satyapgraha" or "Truthforce" and the ideals expressed in freedom movements throughout history.   Notes and References Robert Breedlove: Sovereignism Part 1: Digital Creative Destruction James Dale Davidson & Lord Rees-Mogg: The Sovereign Individual Presearch - the de-centralized search engine Jeftovic: The Transition Overview - Building Companies That Matter Max Borders' Resources Social Evolution website Max's Amazon author's page @socialevol on Twitter On Facebook

Peter Turchin's concept of elite overproduction has been on my mind increasingly lately. It refers to historical conditions during which there are more people aspiring to elite roles in socie… https://www.ribbonfarm.com/2021/05/20/mjd-59354/ elite overproductionTurchin has been unusually right

The New Discourses Podcast with James Lindsay, Episode 36 Elite overproduction is a concept that was forwarded by the anthropologist Peter Turchin to attempt to explain some part of why we face growing social instability in today's society. This is an insightful concept that deserves serious consideration in our present circumstances. It is characterized by a society engaging in practices, like sending too many people to college or for advanced degrees, that create conditions for potential elites to end up underemployed and underaccomplished in the existing socioeconomic power structure of society, and it breeds resentment in this class of people. Indeed, it generates a bourgeoisie, which in turn generates social instability due to the overproliferation of their values and, eventually, ressentiment. In this episode of the New Discourses Podcast, James Lindsay walks through the idea of elite overproduction to focus in on the operant problem that it leads to, bourgeois overproduction, and posits that this problem is the seat of the Woke menace and many of the large-scale ills that have arisen in similar form over the past few centuries in prosperous societies. He also discusses the ways in which the Marxian characterization of the bourgeoisie was imprecise in a way that led to identifying something akin to this problem while misdiagnosing its true foundations (or his own role in it). Join him for a detailed discussion of this phenomenon. Support New Discourses: paypal.me/newdiscourses newdiscourses.locals.com/support patreon.com/newdiscourses subscribestar.com/newdiscourses youtube.com/channel/UC9K5PLkj0N_b9JTPdSRwPkg/join Website: newdiscourses.com Follow: facebook.com/newdiscourses twitter.com/NewDiscourses instagram.com/newdiscourses https://newdiscourses.locals.com pinterest.com/newdiscourses linkedin.com/company/newdiscourses minds.com/newdiscourses reddit.com/r/NewDiscourses Podcast: @newdiscourses podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/new-…es/id1499880546 bit.ly/NDGooglePodcasts open.spotify.com/show/0HfzDaXI5L4LnJQStFWgZp stitcher.com/podcast/new-discourses © 2021 New Discourses. All rights reserved.

Bortom de partiska förklaringarna om att allt är vänsterns eller Trumps fel försöker många av Amerikas intellektuella bena ut varför västvärlden blivit så polariserad. Malcom Kyeyune introducerar här Peter Turchin, som har blivit en intellektuell stjärna i konservativa kretsar. Turchin menar att förklaringen finns i en kamp om försörjning av för ekonomin mer eller mindre onödiga eliter. Inläsning: Marika Lagercrantz See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Aquí estamos, una semana más, con vuestro magazine favorito. Esta semana, en la “Noticias de la semana”, Rubén nos comentará los últimos descubrimientos del simpar arqueólogo egipcio Zahi Hawas. Jon nos traerá "cosas nazis" desgranando las 11 principios de la propaganda nazi, ideados por Goebbles. Rubén nos acercará a la figura de Peter Turchin, el "Nostradamus de la historia". Por último, en la sección "Descontextualizados", hoy presentamos el tráiler de una de las películas menos esperadas de la historia. Esperemos que lo disfrutéis, que comentéis lo que os gusta, y os disgusta, a través de Ivoox, de iTunes, de Google Podcast, de Spotify, de Podimo, de Podbean o de tu plataforma de podcast habitual. También en YouTube y en La Radio de la Historia (lunes de 15-17h y martes de 20-22h). Y. por supuesto, a través de las redes sociales, ya sea twitter, facebook, nuestro grupo en Telegram ("Historiados Podcast") o nuestro blog https://historiadospodcast.wordpress.com/

Many humanities-minded historians think that human beings and the course of human history are too complex to analyze broadly or to examine using predictive models - but one evolutionary anthropologist believes that mathematical models could be used to understand the past, and to predict the future.  In his recent Atlantic piece “The Next Decade Could Be Even Worse”, Graeme Wood dives into the research of evolutionary biologist Peter Turchin who coined the term and discipline “cliodynamics” -  statistical modeling and analysis of the rise and fall of human societies. He explores Professor Turchin’s methods, as well as his dire predictions for the next decade in American history. We dive into the academic endeavor to use big data and mathematics to analyze and predict history, Turchin’s predictions for the next decade and the larger tensions between science and humanities-minded academics over the validity of this approach.  Guest:  Graeme Wood, staff writer at The Atlantic, where his recent piece is “The Next Decade Could Be Even Worse”; lecturer in political science at Yale; he tweets @gcaw

We had to punt last week's show over to this week at which point we were able to reconvene to discuss system change, digital currencies, and China. References: Metaviews: Is Systems Change Inevitable? Bombthrower: Peter Turchin and The Age of Over-Abundant Elites Of Two Minds: America's Fatal Synergies

The prolific Peter Turchin offers another attempt to quantify and mathematize history. It's not bad, and it's fairly interesting, but it's not nearly as successful as his more famous Ages of Discord. (The written version of this review can be found here.)

Matt, Andrea and Ross discuss the final episode of Adam Curtis' TV series ‘Can't Get You Out of My Head'.We're in a park! Together! In the sun! We sum up - talking about what we've learned about Adam Curtis, and ourselves.ReferencesAtlantic story about the data historian Peter Turchin - https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/12/can-history-predict-future/616993/Time of the Gods a film by Lutz Dammbeck - https://www.kanopy.com/product/time-gods

Aimee, Oliver, and special guest Geoff Shullenberger team up to discuss Peter Turchin, UFC 257, Nike, "nerds vs. jocks," Twitter without Trump, Biden's Shinola watch, Josh Hawley, and much more. Suggested Reading: "Jocks Rule, Nerds Drool" in The New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/11/opinion/sunday/nerds-lebron-james-elon-musk.html Bateman, "Jocks vs. Nerds" in Splice Today, https://www.splicetoday.com/writing/jocks-vs-nerds

What is Prosilience, and how can organisations ensure their people provide it? That's where the discussion between my guests on this episode, Gerald Ashley and Rory Sutherland, begins. Where it goes from there, is a joyous adventure in which two great thinkers explore a range of Human Risk related topics. * Listener Warning: the episode contains adult language * This episode is the 100th in the Human Risk podcast series and is a continuation of a discussion which began in the 99th episode. I recommend listening to that first before exploring this one.You'll find my earlier discussion with Rory here: https://www.podpage.com/the-human-risk-podcast/rory-sutherland-on-compliance/and Gerald here: https://www.podpage.com/the-human-risk-podcast/gerald-ashley-on-uncertainty/As with the previous episode, I'm providing more detailed show notes given the breadth and depth of issues covered. 05:18 Rory refers to Seeing Like A State by James C Scott. More on that here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seeing_Like_a_State05:54 Gerald talks about the metrics used to measure Soviet bicycle manufacturing. This article doesn't feature bicycles, but covers the idea and features a wonderful cartoon from a Soviet magazine: https://econlife.com/2015/08/the-incentives-that-metrics-create/09:32 Rory talks about his appearance on Bloomberg TV. You can watch that here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-03-25/advertisers-becoming-too-obsessed-with-tech-sutherland11:50 Rory mentions Rod Liddell in the context of a story about the BBC's travel policy. To learn more about Rod: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rod_Liddle12:34 Gerald mentions Peter Turchin, who Rory explains is a Cliodynamicist. You'll find Peter's website here: http://peterturchin.com/ and a guide to Cliodynamics one that website here: http://peterturchin.com/cliodynamics/14:10 A rare intervention by me to mention David Graber's book Bullshit Jobs - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullshit_Jobs14:30 Rory refers to 14th Century Middle Eastern Historian Ibn Khaldoun - https://www.britannica.com/biography/Ibn-Khaldun15:04 Gerald talks about The Great Wave by David Hackett Fischer - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Wave_(book)18:25 Rory talks about Daniel Kahneman's research into risk appetites of CEOs and division heads. You can read more about that in this HBR article: https://hbr.org/2020/03/your-company-is-too-risk-averse19:40 Gerald talks about the Lockheed Martin Skunkworks. You can read about the history of that unit here https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/news/features/history/skunk-works.html and its current role here: https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/who-we-are/business-areas/aeronautics/skunkworks.html22:59 Gerald talks about Nudgestock, the annual Behavioural Science festival hosted by Rory. You can read about that here: https://www.nudgestock.co.uk/The presentation he refers to is by Jules Goddard called The Fatal Bias and can be seen here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oNlzl37GLdA 24:46 Rory highlights the story of mathematician's Abraham Wald intervention in the Second World War. It is explained in this excerpt from Jordan Ellenberg's excellent How Not To Be Wrong: https://medium.com/@penguinpress/an-excerpt-from-how-not-to-be-wrong-by-jordan-ellenberg-664e708cfc3d25:56 Rory talks about IBM's Thomas Watson and his desire to have Wild Geese. In actual fact, Watson talked about Wild Ducks (https://www.mbiconcepts.com/watson-sr-and-wild-ducks.html). Interestingly, the Duck story actually comes from an original fable by Søren Kierkegaard about a Wild Goose. For some reason Watson preferred Ducks! You can read the Kierkegaard story here: https://www.maxelon.co.uk/2015/01/domestic-geese/26:18 Rory refers to James C Scott's idea of an Anarchist's Squint. You can read more about that in his collection of essays called Two Cheers for Anarchism: https://theanarchistlibrary.org/library/james-c-scott-two-cheers-for-anarchism32:33 Gerald talks about how the British government sold Rolls Royce engines to the Russian government. You can read about that here: https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/how-british-turbojet-allowed-russias-mig-15-fight-the-air-2638532:50 Rory explains how penicillin was passed by America to supposedly neutral countries during World War Two, against British instructions. It ended up saving Adolf Hitler's life after a bomb plot on 20th July 1940. More on the research behind that here: https://www.sheffield.ac.uk/news/nr/154-1.17501840:05 Rory references British supergroup The Travelling Wilburys. Find out who they are here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Traveling_Wilburys. You can hear them on Spotify here: https://open.spotify.com/artist/2hO4YtXUFJiUYS2uYFvHNK?si=eqMFhifpSIai03kZPFHOVQ

Our guest, Prof. Peter Turchin from the University of Connecticut, joins Massimo and Julia to discuss whether history can be studied and understood in a scientific manner. In an article in Nature (3 July 2008) on what he termed “cliodynamics,” he discusses the possibility of turning history into a science. In it, he proposes that history, contrary to what most historians might think -- is not just one damn thing after another, that there are regular and predictable patterns, from which we can learn and that we can predict. Of course, he is not the only scientist to have turned to history in an attempt to make that field more scientific, Jared Diamond's Guns, Germs, and Steel and Collapse immediately come to mind. And naturally, many historians vehemently object to what they perceive as a crude scientistic attempt at interdisciplinary colonization. Sped up the speakers by [1.0, 1.295973132264331]

00:00 Trump's Executive Order Regarding Systemic Police Racism 05:40 How Racist Was Flannery O'Connor? https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/06/22/how-racist-was-flannery-oconnor 07:20 Bret Weinstein and Yuri Deigin on the origins of the corona virus, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Z5UV_aJTBo&feature=emb_title 13:40 ​Moldbug a.k.a. Curtis Yarvin endorses Biden, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DGCzcBA7Uys 17:30 ‘Threw Him Under the Bus': NY Times Publisher A.G. Sulzberger Laments Bennet's Ouster, https://www.thedailybeast.com/new-york-times-publisher-ag-sulzberger-laments-loss-of-a-talent-like-james-bennet 21:00 Greg Cochran on Covid-19, https://soundcloud.com/user-519115521/cochran-on-covid-part-7 34:30 Sam Harris skeptical of systemic police racism, https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/making-sense-with-sam-harris/id733163012?i=1000477802485 49:00 NYT: Economics, Dominated by White Men, Is Roiled by Black Lives Matter 52:40 Who's more powerful for news? Facebook or Twitter? 55:50 Chris Rock on how to deal with police 1:02:20 Colin Liddell says give the Left space to destroy itself, https://affirmativeright.blogspot.com/p/shortpod.html 1:12:00 ‘The Woman Who Cracked the Anxiety Code' Review: Robbing Fear of Its Power, https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-woman-who-cracked-the-anxiety-code-review-robbing-fear-of-its-power-11592163892?mod=opinion_reviews_pos1 1:21:00 NYDN: Howard Stern addresses 1993 blackface skit: there's nothing new here https://www.nydailynews.com/snyde/ny-howard-stern-addresses-blackface-insane-20200615-frvuhxk7p5bm5eqdxq4343ipuy-story.html 1:23:00 ANTIFA: The truth behind the mask 1:34:00 NYT: How 2 Lives Collided in Central Park, Rattling the Nation, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/14/nyregion/central-park-amy-cooper-christian-racism.html 1:37:00 New Zealand's turnaround through free market economics, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DNI5hFG3fzE&t=157s 1:44:00 What Turned Germans Into Nazis? 1:48:50 Ramzpaul: The Demise of Rayshard Brooks, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pekMR_ANK6w 1:57:00 Anatoly Karlin on Covid-19, https://www.starktruthradio.com/?p=10088 2:00:40 Hasidic Jews won't accept the mayor closing the biggest park in Brooklyn 2:04:40 Thamster on why the AR supports Palestinians, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N6yK2L_GXp8 2:07:00 Tucker Carlson on BLM more popular than the president 2:24:40 Ed Dutton, Richard Spencer and Keith Woods discuss Peter Turchin's idea of the overproduction of elites and intra-elite warfare leading to societal instability, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0EK3f-ot8zA 2:36:30 Donald Trump goes on Michael Savage show 2:46:00 How Canadians view the American Revolution 2:51:20 Tucker on Atlanta police shooting https://ideasanddata.wordpress.com/2019/08/10/on-racial-bias-in-police-shootings/ https://ideasanddata.wordpress.com/2020/06/03/american-racism-and-the-anti-white-left/ https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/501511-defund-the-police-and-republicans-will-win https://anncoulter.com/2020/06/10/why-you-no-longer-recognize-your-country/ https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/kevin-macdonald-american-anti-semitism https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/10/business/economy/white-economists-black-lives-matter.html https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/kevin-macdonald-american-anti-semitism The Holocaust in American Life by David Novick, https://lukeford.net/blog/?p=75971 https://www.city-journal.org/why-we-need-the-police Listener Call In #: 1-310-997-4596 Superchat: https://entropystream.live/app/lukeford/ Bitchute: https://www.bitchute.com/channel/lukeford/ Soundcloud MP3s: https://soundcloud.com/luke-ford-666431593 Code of Conduct: https://lukeford.net/blog/?p=125692

I am skeptical of the art of predicting the future based on the past, but Peter Turchin offers a compelling theory in this 2016 book—including predicting that 2020 will be a very bad year. (The written version of this review, in web, PDF, and ebook formats, can be found here.)

In this episode we explain the equality/efficiency cycle, which is based on the seminal work of the economist Arthur Okun and the cycle work of Peter Turchin. The cycle explains how societies shift from focusing on equality, which usually includes policies favoring regulation, autarky and high marginal taxes, to efficiency, where policies of deregulation, globalization and low marginal tax rates dominate. The podcast discusses where the U.S. is in this cycle and the impact on American hegemony.

¿Y si pudiéramos predecir la historia? Esto -con limitaciones- es lo que promete hacer la cliodinámica, una disciplina que mezcla historia, sociología y matemática para traer al presente el sueño de Asimov de la psicohistoria. He hablado con Peter Turchin, su creador, y en este snack del día en el que Donald J. Trump se convertirá en el 45o Presidente de los Estados Unidos, os lo cuento. Un fecha muy, muy adecuada.   Escucha el nuevo podcast de Cuonda: POLITIBOT, con María Ramírez y Eduardo Suárez

On today's show, Trey and Ken discuss Bostock v. Clayton County and the 1964 Civil Rights Act. The discussion leads them to discuss the implications of various methods the court uses, or ought to use, in interpreting law. Trey and Ken also talk DACA and the downfall of the Trump administration's use of illegality to try to end DACA. The two speculate as to why this was the method used and what it means for Dreamers in the future. Finally Trey and Ken discuss Bolton's upcoming book The Room Where it Happened. The pair touch on both the civil litigation from the Justice Department to attempt to stop publication and the content details leaked thus far, including whether Bolton should have been willing to testify during the impeachment investigation or trial. *This Week's Recommendations* *Trey* suggests you check out Political instability by Peter Turchin. ( https://time.com/5852397/turchin-2020-prediction/ ) See the full article here. ( https://www.nature.com/articles/463608a ) *Ken* recommends you watch Inspector Lewis ( https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/masterpiece/shows/inspector-lewis/ ) *Be part of the discussion* on the Politics Guys ‘ BipartisanPolitics ( https://www.reddit.com/r/BipartisanPolitics/ ) ' community on Reddit. *Listener support helps make The Politics Guys possible*. If you're interested in supporting the, go to patreon.com/politicsguys ( https://www.patreon.com/politicsguys ) or politicsguys.com/support ( http://www.politicsguys.com/support ). Support this podcast at — https://redcircle.com/the-politics-guys/donations Advertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brands Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy