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Today's clip is from episode 134 of the podcast, with David Kohns.Alex and David discuss the future of probabilistic programming, focusing on advancements in time series modeling, model selection, and the integration of AI in prior elicitation. The discussion highlights the importance of setting appropriate priors, the challenges of computational workflows, and the potential of normalizing flows to enhance Bayesian inference.Get the full discussion here.Intro to Bayes Course (first 2 lessons free)Advanced Regression Course (first 2 lessons free)Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work!Visit our Patreon page to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)TranscriptThis is an automatic transcript and may therefore contain errors. Please get in touch if you're willing to correct them.

Today, we're speaking to Dr Cini Bhanu, GP and Academic Clinical Lecturer in the Primary Care and Population Health Department at University College London. Title of paper: Antidepressants and risk of postural hypotension: a self-controlled case series study in UK primary careAvailable at: https://doi.org/10.3399/BJGP.2024.0429Antidepressants are associated with postural hypotension (PH). This is not widely recognised in general practice, where antihypertensives are considered the worst culprits. The present study examined >21 000 older adults and found a striking increased risk of PH with use of all antidepressants (over a four- fold risk with SSRIs) in the first 28 days of initiation. TranscriptThis transcript was generated using AI and has not been reviewed for accuracy. Please be aware it may contain errors or omissions.Speaker A00:00:00.480 - 00:00:56.990Hello and welcome to BJGP Interviews. My name is Nada Khan and I'm one of the associate editors of the bjgp. Thanks for listening to this podcast today.In today's episode, we're speaking to Dr. Cini Banu, who is a GP in an academic clinical lecturer based in the Department of Primary Care and Population Health at University College London.We're here to talk about her recent paper in the BJGP titled Antidepressants and Risk of Postural Hypertension, A Self Controlled Case Series Study in UK Primary Care. So, hi Cinny, it's really nice to meet you today.I guess this is an interesting area to cover, especially as the prescribing rates for some antidepressant medications are increasing.But I don't know what your feeling is, but I'm not sure if many GPs would actually know that antidepressants are associated with poison postural hypertension. So, yeah, talk us through that.Speaker B00:00:57.310 - 00:01:18.350Yeah, so I think that's one of the reasons this study is so important.So definitely from conversations that I've had with gps that I work with and it's not commonly recognized that postural hypotension is associated with antidepressants, though it is by geriatricians, for example, where it's very.Speaker A00:01:18.350 - 00:01:41.850Well recognized and in this study used a big database to look at the risk of new postural hypertension associated with the use of antidepressants in people aged over 60.I guess there's quite a lot of in depth stuff in the methods, but I guess just for a summary for people who are interested in what you did, do you mind just sort of going over it at sort of like a high level?Speaker B00:01:41.850 - 00:02:54.200Yeah, yeah. So we looked at a big database, what we call a routine primary care database called imrd.And essentially this captures data from software that gps use like EMIS and Vision System and captures a whole load of information like problems, symptoms and prescriptions. So we went into this database and identified everyone over the age of 60 that might be eligible during our study period.And for this we looked at people that were contributing at least one full year of data between 2010 and 2018. And then within that we identified people with a first diagnosis of postural hypotension.And then again we made subgroups according to people who had this diagnosis but also had a first prescription of a new antidepressant during that time.And what we were interested in, and the methodology is called a self controlled case series, we weren't interested in who got postural Hypotension, because everyone was a case, but rather...

Today's clip is from episode 133 of the podcast, with Sean Pinkney & Adrian Seyboldt.The conversation delves into the concept of Zero-Sum Normal and its application in statistical modeling, particularly in hierarchical models. Alex, Sean and Adrian discuss the implications of using zero-sum constraints, the challenges of incorporating new data points, and the importance of distinguishing between sample and population effects. They also explore practical solutions for making predictions based on population parameters and the potential for developing tools to facilitate these processes.Get the full discussion here.Intro to Bayes Course (first 2 lessons free)Advanced Regression Course (first 2 lessons free)Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work!Visit our Patreon page to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)TranscriptThis is an automatic transcript and may therefore contain errors. Please get in touch if you're willing to correct them.

Today, we're speaking to Dr Steve Bradley, GP and Senior Clinical Lecturer based within the School of Medicine and Population Health at the University of Sheffield.Title of paper: General practice chest X-ray rate is associated with earlier lung cancer diagnosis and reduced all-cause mortality: a retrospective observational studyAvailable at: https://doi.org/10.3399/BJGP.2024.0466It is known that there is wide variation in the use of chest X-ray (CXR) by general practices, but previous studies have provided conflicting evidence as to whether greater utilisation of them leads to lung cancer being diagnosed at an earlier stage and improves survival. This observational study analysed data from the English national cancer registry on CXR rates for individual general practices, along with stage and survival outcomes; it found earlier stage at diagnosis and improved survival for patients diagnosed with cancer at practices that used the test more frequently. Increasing use of CXR by GPs for symptomatic patients, particularly by focusing on practices that use the test infrequently, could improve lung cancer outcomes.TranscriptThis transcript was generated using AI and has not been reviewed for accuracy. Please be aware it may contain errors or omissions.Speaker A00:00:00.640 - 00:01:06.820Hello and welcome to BJGP Interviews. I'm Nada Khan and I'm one of the Associate Editors at the Journal. Thanks for taking the time today to listen to this podcast.In today's episode, we're talking to Dr. Steve Bradley. Steve is a GP and senior clinical Lecturer based within the School of Medicine and Population Health at the University of Sheffield.Early diagnosis of cancer has been an area of research that is Steve's real strength. And we're here to discuss his recent paper here in the BJJP titled General Practice.Chest X Ray Rate is Associated with Earlier Lung Cancer Diagnosis and Reduced All Cause Mortality A Retrospective Observational Study. Hi, Steve, Great to speak again and to talk through this paper.I suppose I want to start by saying that, yes, we know that earlier diagnosis of cancer is a good thing because it can lead to earlier stages of diagnosis and treatment. And you start the paper with a short discussion about screening for lung cancer.But talk us through why this, this alone won't solve delays in lung cancer diagnosis and what else we need to be doing.Speaker B00:01:07.540 - 00:02:14.620So, yeah, this context is really important because screening is a hugely important development and the UK has led in many ways on lung cancer screening using low dose ct. And this, we hope is going to be very, very beneficial for patients.But it would be a mistake to think that this is going to solve the problem of lung cancer. And there's a few reasons for that.One is that only about half of people who get lung cancer would have been eligible for screening because screening concentrates on the highest risk population. And also we know that only about half of people who are invited for screening actually choose to participate in screening.So the upshot for general practice really is that most patients are still going to be coming through by symptoms and in the same way.So screening is good news in terms of lung cancer detection, but we still need to do as well as we can in terms of picking these patients up through symptomatic pathways. And actually, this is something we touched on in an editorial for BJGP about a year or 18 months ago, I think.Speaker A00:02:15.020 -...

Today's clip is from episode 132 of the podcast, with Tom Griffiths.Tom and Alex Andorra discuss the fundamental differences between human intelligence and artificial intelligence, emphasizing the constraints that shape human cognition, such as limited data, computational resources, and communication bandwidth. They explore how AI systems currently learn and the potential for aligning AI with human cognitive processes. The discussion also delves into the implications of AI in enhancing human decision-making and the importance of understanding human biases to create more effective AI systems.Get the full discussion here.Intro to Bayes Course (first 2 lessons free)Advanced Regression Course (first 2 lessons free)Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work!Visit our Patreon page to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)TranscriptThis is an automatic transcript and may therefore contain errors. Please get in touch if you're willing to correct them.

Today, we're speaking to Professor Martijn Schut, Professor of Translational AI in Laboratory Medicine and Professor Henk CPM van Weert, GP and Emeritus Professor of General Practice, both based at Amsterdam University Medical Center.Title of paper: Artificial intelligence for early detection of lung cancer in GPs' clinical notes: a retrospective observational cohort studyAvailable at: https://doi.org/10.3399/BJGP.2023.0489In most cancers, the prognosis depends substantially on the stage at the start of therapy. Therefore, many methods have been developed to enhance earlier diagnosis, for example, logistic regression models, biomarkers, and electronic-nose technology (exhaled volatile organic compounds). However, as most patients are referred by their GP, who keeps life-long histories of enlisted patients, general practice files might contain hidden information that could be used for earlier case finding. An algorithm was developed to identify patients with lung cancer 4 months earlier, just by analysing their files. Contrary to other methods, all medical information available in general practice was used.TranscriptThis transcript was generated using AI and has not been reviewed for accuracy. Please be aware it may contain errors or omissions.Speaker A00:00:01.600 - 00:00:55.370Hello and welcome to BJGP Interviews. I'm Nada Khan and I'm one of the associate editors of the journal. Thanks for taking the time today to listen to this podcast.Today we're speaking to Professor Martin Schutt, who is a professor in translational AI and Laboratory medicine, and Professor Hank Vanwort, GP and Emeritus professor in General Practice, who are both based at Amsterdam University Medical Center. We're here to discuss their paper, which is titled Artificial Intelligence for Early Detection of lung cancer in GP's clinical notes.So, yeah, it's great to see you both here today. And Martin, I'll come to you first.I suppose we know that it's important to try and diagnose cancer early, but could you talk us through what's the potential for artificial intelligence here in terms of identifying cancer earlier based on patient records?Speaker B00:00:55.810 - 00:01:52.220Yeah, that's a very interesting question because the potential kind of like goes hand in hand with the huge amount of interest in AI. And I think there are great opportunities. There are also great challenges.But talking about the opportunities, especially in the context of the article that we wrote, is on the data side. So on the data side, the digitalization of electronic health records gives great opportunities.A lot more is digitalized, and that means that we also, in our case, have access to free text, and that we, with the advent of the large language models, with also new developments in AI, we also have better ways of making use of those data. So those two combined creates a really interesting formula for big opportunities for AI in the general practice and healthcare in general.Speaker A00:01:52.300 - 00:02:05.960And you mentioned access to free text records. So what GPs are typing into the record records?But before we get into the study, can you just briefly describe what is natural language processing and how that can be used in free text records?Speaker B00:02:06.760 - 00:03:10.100So we know that a lot of clinical risk scores, they work with features of patients, so their age and their gender or sex. And. But of course, a lot of information is also written up in unstructured way. And in our case that is...

Today, we're speaking to Dr Afrodita Marcu, a Research Fellow in Cancer Care at the University of Surrey.Title of paper: Symptom appraisal and help- seeking before a cancer diagnosis during pregnancy: a qualitative studyAvailable at: https://doi.org/10.3399/BJGP.2024.0208There is a gap in current understanding about the experiences of women diagnosed with cancer during or around pregnancy including how they appraise and seek help for cancer-related symptoms. This qualitative study found that women and healthcare professionals often interpreted symptoms through the lens of pregnancy, particularly when symptoms were vague. Health professionals need to ensure full assessment of symptoms, timely referral, and effective safety-netting for these women.TranscriptThis transcript was generated using AI and has not been reviewed for accuracy. Please be aware it may contain errors or omissions.Speaker A00:00:01.040 - 00:01:04.650Hello and welcome to BJJP Interviews. I'm Nada Khan and I'm one of the associate editors of the bjgp. Thanks for listening to this podcast today. In today's episode, we're speaking to Dr.Aphrodite Marcoux, a research fellow in Cancer care at the University of Surrey.We're here to talk about a paper she's recently published here in the bjgp, which is titled Symptom Appraisal and Help Seeking Before a Cancer Diagnosis during Pregnancy, A Qualitative Study. So it's really lovely to meet you, Aphrodita, to talk about your research.And I think this is a really important area and I wanted to get your thoughts on just why this area is so important to research.But I think that most people will probably appreciate that during pregnancy, women's bodies are going through lots of changes, so it can sometimes be difficult to know what's normal and what's not. But talk us through why you wanted to do this study.What are the challenges faced by patients and by doctors around cancer diagnosis in women who are pregnant?Speaker B00:01:05.050 - 00:02:32.190It's an important area to research because the symptoms of pregnancy, the bodily changes that naturally occur during pregnancy, can mask the symptoms of cancer, both for the women experiencing them, but also for the healthcare professionals with whom they come into contact and with whom they share the symptoms.So it's an important area to research from that point of view in terms of understanding the potential causes for delay in receiving a cancer diagnosis.And one of the areas which we discovered was less researched was early diagnosis or timeliness of diagnosis of cancer diagnosis in the context of pregnancy.So we conducted this research because there was a lack of research, especially in the uk, on women's pathway or other pathways to a cancer diagnosis and pregnancy.And we wanted to get a more detailed understanding knowledge of how women make sense of their symptoms during pregnancy, how they seek help and why to whom they present, midwife, gp, other healthcare professionals and how they receive a diagnosis. What is the pathway to a cancer diagnosis and pregnancy?We wanted to get more clarity about that, more detail, and we were also interested to find out whether delays characterize this pathway to a cancer diagnosis in pregnancy, be they patient related delays or healthcare system related delays.Speaker A00:02:32.830 - 00:02:44.750And I guess you've touched on this. So does do we know if there are delays in cancer diagnosis amongst women who are pregnant?So do they tend to have a...

Today's clip is from episode 131 of the podcast, with Luke Bornn.Luke and Alex discuss the application of generative models in sports analytics. They emphasize the importance of Bayesian modeling to account for uncertainty and contextual variations in player data. The discussion also covers the challenges of balancing model complexity with computational efficiency, the innovative ways to hack Bayesian models for improved performance, and the significance of understanding model fitting and discretization in statistical modeling.Get the full discussion here.Intro to Bayes Course (first 2 lessons free)Advanced Regression Course (first 2 lessons free)Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work!Visit our Patreon page to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)TranscriptThis is an automatic transcript and may therefore contain errors. Please get in touch if you're willing to correct them.

Today's clip is from episode 130 of the podcast, with epidemiological modeler Adam Kucharski.This conversation explores the critical role of patient modeling during the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting how these models informed public health decisions and the relationship between modeling and policy. The discussion emphasizes the need for improved communication and understanding of data among the public and policymakers.Get the full discussion at https://learnbayesstats.com/episode/129-bayesian-deep-learning-ai-for-science-vincent-fortuinIntro to Bayes Course (first 2 lessons free)Advanced Regression Course (first 2 lessons free)Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work!Visit our Patreon page to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)TranscriptThis is an automatic transcript and may therefore contain errors. Please get in touch if you're willing to correct them.

Today's clip is from episode 129 of the podcast, with AI expert and researcher Vincent Fortuin.This conversation delves into the intricacies of Bayesian deep learning, contrasting it with traditional deep learning and exploring its applications and challenges.Get the full discussion at https://learnbayesstats.com/episode/129-bayesian-deep-learning-ai-for-science-vincent-fortuinIntro to Bayes Course (first 2 lessons free)Advanced Regression Course (first 2 lessons free)Our theme music is « Good Bayesian », by Baba Brinkman (feat MC Lars and Mega Ran). Check out his awesome work!Visit our Patreon page to unlock exclusive Bayesian swag ;)TranscriptThis is an automatic transcript and may therefore contain errors. Please get in touch if you're willing to correct them.

TranscriptThis morning I downloaded and logged into InstagramSomething I haven't done in a month or twoI mostly got off of the platform because I don't really think it's doing good things for humanityThe problem is so many people use itTheir communication and time is used up on itAnd many people have a picture of their reality from itAnd so to not participate is somehow to not exist as a creative personThis is something I've been ruminating on for yearsBut this is just such a short note because what I saw on there this morning, after I made a post about possibly selling some prints to support my schooling, was the two of the most extreme directions that humanity participates in, which are death and birthDeath and birthAnd I saw them in extremely gross expressionsI saw an explosion on a roadwayI saw a giant fireball engulfing cars in a place that I have no idea if I've ever been to or will ever go to or know any of the people or even if it's realBecause it very well and even likely could have been something that an application generatedI don't even like to use the word, but artificial intelligenceIt was probably thatIt probably wasn't even realAnother thing I saw was a video of someone getting slapped so hard that they passed outBut it wasn't only thatIt was an AI-generated image that showed his face collapsing in an unbelievable wayBut it wasn't realBut if someone's just scrolling and they're not paying attention and they see these things, they think, oh, this is realThat just happenedSomething I thought could never happen just happened in front of my very eyesAnd so that's deathThat's actually the death of the human spiritThat is complete collapse and destructivenessBasically to be creating fear through falsehoodAnd then on the other side, I saw a picture of a woman in a dressCould have been AII don't knowI don't know the contextI didn't click on the imageBut she was standing in a shimmery dressAnd so these images..I guess I should add that the dress was very tight-fittingSo basically what I saw was extreme violence and pornographyThat's what is being shown in the algorithmic feed on Instagram that people in general are just being subjected toSo what do we do with that? Well, I reported every single post that I sawIt's not going to change anythingIt's not going to do anythingBut it made me feel better to at least do somethingIn fact, it might make it worseIt only took me about five seconds to do these thingsBut I think it was worth itThe point of this, though, isn't to blame the Instagram platform and the creators for being evil, even though they areEven though the platform is destructive and horrific and terrible and uselessIt's also useful and creative and profound and abundantThe fact is, everything in the world ends up being related to these thingsTo skate along on the surface and believe that these experiences won't touch us is impossibleBut by interacting with the world through a screen, it seems like we can have some distance from the realitiesAnd we can just entertain ourselves by watching them instead of engaging with our livesAnd I think that this is extremely dangerous, and actually more dangerous than being shown violenceI think what's more dangerous is complacency and lack of connection and engagement with life, which is what these platforms really wantThey want you to just feel fear, feel lust, and then not do anything about itJust to consume more fear and more lustThat's the goalBut there's something profound beneath all of this, which is that the reality of fear and desire is inescapable in lifeBut the fact is, we have to be in control of our fears and desiresAnd it doesn't matter what the world shows us or serves us, what the algorithm displays, if we can't keep a center, there's no hopeRight now, it's election day, and the political stratum is basically birth and deathNot a positive form of birth and death, but the most deranged formsIs one better than another? I don't knowIt's all part of a cycleThe cycle doesn't want to endSo, we have to be the endI don't really know what that means, but I'm going to keep engaging with my internal world, with my internal workStaying true to what I know is important and what mattersI'm going to keep focusing on what is beautiful, and what seems powerful to meAnd I won't let my center be swayed by violence and lustThank you for listening. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.walkaround.run

We love reading about ordinary people who solve fictional mysteries. What about ordinary people who solve real mysteries? In today's episode, Brook and Sarah discuss real life sleuths.DiscussedAbraham Shakespeare caseI'll Be Gone in the Dark (2018) Michelle McNamaraI'll Be Gone in the Dark (2020) HBOScamanda PodcastReal Estate fraudTitle fraud: How a Toronto real estate lawyer helped thwart alleged scammersJan Marsh caseHome Before Dark (2020) Apple TVFor more informationInstagram: @cluedinmysteryContact us: hello@cluedinmystery.comMusic: Signs To Nowhere by Shane Ivers – www.silvermansound.comSign up for our newsletter: https://cluedinmystery.com/clued-in-chronicle/Join the Clued in Cartel: https://cluedinmystery.com/clued-in-cartel/TranscriptThis transcript is generated by a computer and there may be some mis-spellings and strange punctuation. We try to catch these before posting, but some things slip through.

Welcome to The Deposition, a dramatic reading of the public record transcript of Elon Musk's deposition in full. We promise: this is really real, a real thing that happened in a real lawsuit that exists in real life, word for word – with the addition of some actor editorialization.In this episode, we enter the virtual Zoom court of law, hear Elon Musk learn what this lawsuit is about, and hear Alex Spiro get educated on how to use objections in Texas. ALLEGEDLY!Find the full official court transcript here, courtesy of HuffPo: https://the-deposition.captivate.fm/ty-huffpoFind the transcript for this episode here: https://the-deposition.captivate.fm/ep1-transcriptThis episode is brought to you by the fantastic podcast This Is Propaganda. Find more and listen here: https://the-deposition.captivate.fm/this-is-propagandaThe Deposition is made by Hug House Productions. You can find our work at Hug House dot Productions. Our showrunner, director, and editor is Wil Williams, who also plays the Court Reporter, and also is me. Mark Bankston is played by Elena Fernández Collins. Alex Spiro is played by Anne Baird. Elon Musk is played by Josh Rubino. The videographer is played by C. N. Josephs. Mr. Grant is played by Zach Orsulak. Music by Blue Dot Sessions. Justice for Ben Brody.

This week, author Daniel Kalla joins Brook and Sarah to discuss his medical thrillers and other writing. Daniel Kalla is an internationally best-selling author of many novels, including Fit to Die, The Darkness and the Light, Lost Immunity, The Last High, and We All Fall Down. Kalla practices emergency medicine in Vancouver, British Columbia. You can find him at danielkalla.com or follow him on Twitter @danielkalla.photo credit: Michael Bednar PhotographyDiscussedFit to Die (2023) Daniel KallaThe Last High (2020) Daniel KallaHigh Society (2024) Daniel KallaLost Immunity (2021) Daniel KallaThe Far Side of the Sky (2012) Daniel KallaRobin CookMichael CichtonTess GerritsenFor more informationInstagram: @cluedinmysteryContact us: hello@cluedinmystery.comMusic: Signs To Nowhere by Shane Ivers – www.silvermansound.comSign up for our newsletter: https://cluedinmystery.com/clued-in-chronicle/Join the Clued in Cartel: https://cluedinmystery.com/clued-in-cartel/TranscriptThis transcript is generated by a computer and there may be some mis-spellings and strange punctuation. We try to catch these before posting, but some things slip through.

Brook and Sarah kick off the Clued in Book Club with a short introduction to their first pick: Holmes, Marple & Poe by James Patterson and Brian Sitts. Find out why they picked the book and why they think the title is different in Canada and the US. Future episodes will be available to members of the Clued in Cartel, the Clued in Mystery paid subscription.The base price is $120 US dollars annually, but we want membership to be accessible with choose-what-you-pay pricing. Your support helps us continue to create our free podcast. We hope to see you there!Join the Clued in Cartel without any discounts($120/year or $12/month)Choose Agatha's discount(11% off for the number of days Agatha Christie was missing)Choose Campion's discount(19% off for the number of Albert Campion novels Margery Allingham penned)Choose Sherlock's discount(56% off for the number of Sherlock Holmes short stories)Choose a 90% discount because times are tight but you love mystery(only available for annual plan)DiscussedHolmes, Marple & Poe (2024) James Patterson and Brian SittsFor more informationInstagram: @cluedinmysteryContact us: hello@cluedinmystery.comMusic: Signs To Nowhere by Shane Ivers – www.silvermansound.comSign up for our newsletter: https://cluedinmystery.com/clued-in-chronicle/Join the Clued in Cartel: https://cluedinmystery.com/clued-in-cartel/TranscriptThis transcript is generated by a computer and there may be some mis-spellings and strange punctuation. We try to catch these before posting, but some things slip through.

TRANSCRIPTThis month, Shobita and Jack reflect on the recent COP meeting in the United Arab Emirates, recent AI news including the Biden Administration's Executive Order, the UK summit, and the fates of the two Sams: Altman and Bankman-Fried. And they chat with Sarah de Rijcke, Professor in Science, Technology, and Innovation Studies and Scientific Director at the Centre for Science and Technology Studies at Leiden University in the Netherlands.References:- D'Ignazio, C. and L. F. Klein.Data Feminism. The MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 2020. - Andreessen, M. (2023, October 16).The Techno-Optimist Manifesto. Andreessen Horowitz. - de Rijcke, S. (2023). Does science need heroes? Leiden Madtrics blog, CWTS, Leiden University.- Pölönen, J., Rushforth, A.D., de Rijcke, S., Niemi, L., Larsen, B. & Di Donato, F. (2023). Implementing research assessment reforms: Tales from the frontline.- Rushforth, A.D. & de Rijcke, S. (2023). Practicing Responsible Research Assessment: Qualitative study of Faculty Hiring, Promotion, and Tenure Assessments in the United States. Preprint. DOI: 10.31235/osf.io/2d7ax- Scholten, W., Franssen, T.P., Drooge, L. van, de Rijcke, S. & Hessels, L.K. (2021). Funding for few, anticipation among all: Effects of excellence funding on academic research groups. Science and Public Policy, 48(2), 265-275. DOI: 10.1093/scipol/scab018 https://academic.oup.com/spp/article/48/2/265/6184850- Penders, B., de Rijcke, S. & Holbrook, J.B. (2020). Science's moral economy of repair: Replication and the circulation of reference. Accountability in Research, first published online January 27, 2020. DOI: 10.1080/08989621.2020.1720659.- Müller, R. & De Rijcke, S. (2017). Thinking with indicators. Exploring the Epistemic Impacts of Academic Performance Indicators in the Life Sciences. Research Evaluation. DOI: 10.1093/reseval/rvx023. Study Questions:1. What is techno-optimism, and how does it apply in the case of AI?2. How might we think about the strengths and weaknesses of current efforts to address AI governance by the U.S. government?3. What are some negative consequences of simplistic performance metrics for research assessment, and why do such metrics remain in use?4. How do large companies like Elsevier now extend their domain beyond publishing? How might this shape the trajectory of research assessment methods?5. What hopes exist for better performance metrics for research assessments?More at thereceivedwisdom.org

I suppose you're listening to this podcast in order to learn something about English. I also suppose you'll be taking notes. Why? Well, suppose you want to remember these English points. You're supposed to do that, you know! Let's discuss. Send me a DM with your suggestion or request for a lesson here! Visit my website: https://www.myhappyenglish.com/Join my Podcast Learner's Study Group here: https://learn.myhappyenglish.com/transcriptThis show is part of the Spreaker Prime Network, if you are interested in advertising on this podcast, contact us at https://www.spreaker.com/show/5900997/advertisement

This week we're talking weaning as in starting food, rather than weaning from the breast. I'm joined by Cordelia Uys, an NCT breastfeeding counsellor who supports parents with introducing solids, to answer your questions about all things food. You can hear more from Cordelia on her website https://www.cordeliauys.co.uk/ and follow here on instagram @‌cordeliauys.Questions answered in this episode - 2:10 Why is the recommendation to introduce solids around six months?7:22 Do you ever think there's a time when it's appropriate to introduce solid food before six months?10:39 What about parents with allergies in the family?12:14 Are there times when you think it might be appropriate to delay the onset of solids?15:48 Should we be worried about iron levels after six months?16:54 I'm going back to work at six months, but I don't want to miss starting my baby on solids. Any suggestions?18:31 What is baby led weaning? And how is it different from spoon feeding/purees? Does it have to be one or the other?27:10 Is there a risk of choking with baby-led weaning?33:56 How do you avoid engorgement/mastitis when a baby starts eating solids?39:32 When do you start worrying about whether you've got to three meals a day?42:51 How do you suggest that families introduce water? And how can they make sure they're giving the right amount?46:30 What do you say to parents about introducing foods and whether it should it be in a particular order?49:45 If somebody has a minor allergic reaction, what would that look like and what do they need to possibly do if that happens?51:23 What are the sort of foods that we really do stay away from in infancy?55:35 At what point should you look at breastfeeding frequency in relation to lack of solid intake? What should you do when a toddler still very much prefers milk to having solid 18 months plus? My health visitor is suggesting I wean from breastfeeding, is that necessary?Find out more about breastfeeding and chest feeding older babies and children in my book Supporting Breastfeeding Past the First Six Months and Beyond: A Guide for Professionals and ParentsFollow me on Twitter @MakesMilk and on Instagram  @emmapickettibclc or find out more on my website www.emmapickettbreastfeedingsupport.comResources mentioned - Choking video: Children First Aid: Choking baby - YouTubeScientific Advisory Committee on Nutrition (UK) on feeding in the first year, with discussion on why solids at 6 months: Feeding in the first year of life: SACN report - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)November 2022 newsletter — First Steps Nutrition Trust (discussion of allergy studies)Why Starting Solids Matters - Pinter & Martin Publishers (pinterandmartin.com)The Baby-led Weaning Cookbook (penguin.co.uk)For more resources and Instagram accounts to follow see TranscriptThis podcast is presented by Emma Pickett IBCLC, and produced by Emily Crosby Media.

Had I known this English point was a pain in the neck for a lot of English learners, I would have covered it before. Can you imagine? How I missed this is beyond me! Sometimes the word order of a sentence is changed. In particular, we sometimes reverse the order of the subject and verb. And this is called, inversion. For today's English lesson, lets look at five situations where this happens.Join my Podcast Learner's Study Group here: https://learn.myhappyenglish.com/transcriptThis show is part of the Spreaker Prime Network, if you are interested in advertising on this podcast, contact us at https://www.spreaker.com/show/5900997/advertisement

Welcome to another episode of Day Drinking on Delmarva! In this episode, our hosts, Tony Russo and Todd DeHart, share their experiences and insights while enjoying some bourbon. They start by discussing a canceled shoot due to bad weather, but Tony is surprisingly okay with it. Then, they dive into the topic of a powerful tool called Cast Magic that Tony has recently discovered. Tony finds Cast Magic impressive, as it provides timestamps and creative titles for interesting parts of their podcast, making editing much easier. Tony shares his thoughts on their podcast being somewhat of a vanity project and his struggles with promoting it. However, he is amazed by the capabilities of Cast Magic in summarizing and extracting key information from their podcast, which he believes can help attract more listeners.In their quest to encourage more people to write, create, and enjoy art, Tony and Todd express their disinterest in voting on budgets or being on committees. They mention their Substack account, where they publish news and sell Tony's book, "Being Burly." While some content requires a minimum payment of $6 per month, they also provide free content to engage with a broader audience. Tony emphasizes the importance of enjoying the present moment, regardless of the time of year, although he admits struggling with this concept and sometimes waking up with negative thoughts. He encourages the audience to engage with them on social media and provide feedback on their newsletter, partially written by AI, where any mistakes are promptly fixed, except for instances where they may have said something inappropriate. Moving on, they discuss the Maryland Writers Association's annual conference in October and encourage people to attend. They also mention the "3rd Fridays" art walks that take place in various towns, including Salisbury, Berlin, Crisfield, and Cambridge, and Tony declares his plan to participate in as many third Friday events as possible. Touching on a serious topic, Tony reflects on the perception of white people being racist and shares personal experiences of racism directed towards white individuals. He discusses the challenges of distancing oneself from racist views expressed by others and even mentions how wearing masks during the mask controversy could temporarily shield one from racist comments. Tony expresses concern about computer algorithms categorizing individuals as racist and its potential impact on the content they see. He also shares his frustration with algorithms making assumptions about his preferences based on his identity, especially regarding the lack of diversity in recommended content. Tony contemplates sending a note to Amazon to actively seek movies with black actors, in an effort to broaden his entertainment choices. As the president of the local chapter of the Maryland Writers Association, Tony talks about its role as a state-sponsored arts project and his involvement in preventing negative impacts caused by COVID-19. He briefly mentions the association's monthly meetings, which discuss budgets and other writing-related topics, but admits not paying close attention to those discussions. The hosts engage in a lively debate on whether July 4th is considered the beginning or middle of summer. Tony shares his personal perspective, defining summer as the period between Memorial Day and Labor Day, taking into account the school schedules of high school and college students. He playfully concludes that the love of summer solely belongs to the month of July. Throughout the episode, Tony emphasizes the importance of taking time to acknowledge and enjoy the present moment. He shares his personal experiences, such as playing golf with friends during the summer, and encourages listeners to do the same. In discussing their work with various clients, Tony mentions his control over specific channels, including the search page and the "for you" page. He highlights the personalized algorithm that reflects his interests and preferences. Tony mentions his new restaurant, Starboard Claw, and expresses frustration with irrelevant content appearing when searching for it, but he intends to train the algorithm to better suit his needs. To wrap up the episode, Tony reveals that he hosts a podcast called Funeral Service Insider for funeral directors and recently recorded an episode on Green Burial, a popular topic. He shares his excitement about a transcription tool they discovered that provides 80% accurate transcriptions, assisting with SEO and generating text for their podcast episodes. Furthermore, Tony is thrilled that the tool creates introductions, reel scripts, social media posts, and tweet threads for different platforms, ultimately streamlining their content creation process. Be sure to tune in and enjoy this episode of Day Drinking on Delmarva, where Tony and Todd cover a wide range of engaging topics while sharing their love for bourbon and the present moment. Cheers!TRANSCRIPTThis week though is the Maryland Writers Association because I am a member not only that, I am the president of the local know I had my first meeting this week. And if you are a member of the Maryland Writers Association, I apologize in advance because I'm going to talk a little Maryland Writers Association s**t because I think it's adorable. And I mean this all with love in my heart, but have you ever been to so I'm on the state board. So the Maryland Writers Association is a state sponsored arts project and I'm a member of that esteemed board. And they get together once a month and they talk about writing stuff. I've got to be honest, I didn't pay real close attention. They talk about budgets and things like that. And the reason that I wanted to become president of the local board is that nobody else was and I helped found it and I didn't want to see it. Got it got you know, kind of run over a little bit by COVID. And Stephanie has been out of her mind busy and she was the president for like six years. And it is a kind of thing that'll wear you down. One of the things that wears you down is this monthly meeting where it's about I've got to admit I have no idea how long it was either. It was anywhere between it was maybe an hour, maybe 2 hours.You were writing the whole time, weren't you?Well, I don't want to give away too much, but I was in one of those conditions where I'm like how much time has passed, man? Like four years. So I'm not sure how long the meeting is. It could be an hour, could be two, could be ten. But people don't get into writing to be on boards. It's not pleasant. And I see why people do it. I don't see how anyone enjoys it. I use all my spare time to do more writing. It's this thing that always bothered me about Ocean Pines. You work your whole life in upper middle management in a Fortune 1000 company and you bust your ass and you don't know your kids names and your grandchildren don't talk to you. And then you retire to Ocean Pines and you get on their board of directors and like really?Yeah, really.I don't know. It's not my scene. I guess what I'm getting at, I'm not a really good representative.But you are.You can't put me on a board. I mean you can put me on a board, but you can't like I'll go to the thing. I'm not going to participate, but I will make an announcement from the board. There's a Maryland Writers Association has an annual conference in October and they want people to go. So you should go to Mwa.org or whatever and find out about Ever. What I do want to talk about are third Fridays before I use up all my commercial time. Salisbury has third Friday events, which are art walks. Lots of places have them. We're going to try to do as many as possible. So when there's something in Berlin, if they're letting art things come for free, we'll do that. There was one in Chris Field, as I understand it, one in Cambridge, my second favorite town on the Eastern Shore. And all those places have them. We're going to do them all. One of the things we're going to do, though, and I want to entice you, this is coming out on it would be a miracle if it was out on Friday the 21st. I've got to be honest. So let's say this comes out Monday, which is July 24. On my calendar, there's a third Friday every month. So please put August 18 in your schedule, because what we're doing is something called the Exquisite Corpse. And as I explained to Todd, we're going to start off with one sentence and then we're going to let someone read that sentence and write the next sentence, and then we're going to cover it up and cover it up so everyone can write a sentence. Everyone who wants to can write a sentence based on the previous sentence, and.Todd DeHart [00:04:39]:We'Ll see what kind and nothing more.Tony Russo [00:04:41]:And nothing more, right. And so we'll see what kind of it's like a weird kind of telephone, almost, right, where you have enough information, you have information to continue, but you don't know if you're making any sense.Todd DeHart [00:04:56]:I feel like this is like an improv kind of it is.Tony Russo [00:05:02]:And that's my promise as the new MWA lorison Shore. By the way, that's M-W-A-L-E-S. So it's like MW ales or M wales, but I like MW ales instead. What I want to do is I want to get more people to write, more people to make stuff, more people to enjoy it. I don't want to get people to vote on budgets. I don't want to get people to be on committees, which is what makes me a mediocre president, but hopefully an effective one where we get more people who are writing, making stuff. We're going to bring back one true thing for sure, hopefully in the winter, once we get everything else together. So please stay tuned to that and you can follow everything that I do on my substac by substack is bytonyruusso substack.com and all of my news and stuff is on there. You can buy my to. I meant to tell Todd. Oh, I think I did. I've started my Burly book is now out, and every Friday I publish another section of a book that didn't get published called Being Burly. And as I'm going back through it. I've said it before and I've said it again. It's pretty good. So it's $6 a month is the minimum to have access to all that. Although there's plenty of free stuff. I write one free thing and one paid thing each week. Sometimes I write two paid things, but I write at least one free thing every week, and it's fun to read. And that's the end of my commercial. You talk now while I get a drink? Yeah.Todd DeHart [00:06:46]:What are you drinking today?Tony Russo [00:06:49]:I am drinking water. The people I'm sorry, they don't know this, but you do, Todd. We moved it back to 04:00. We usually record at three. Today we moved it back to four. I started writing at two, and Tod texted me at, like, 410 to say, are we still doing this or what? I didn't get a drink. I have the last little bit of some soda water, and I have about half a thing of regular water, half a container of regular water, and then a little bit of coffee left from this morning. So I have a nice collection of cups here on the side of my desk, but nothing alcoholic. I saw you were drinking something alcoholic and brown.Todd DeHart [00:07:28]:I am drinking a little bit of bourbon, and because we got pushed back a little bit, we had a shoot that actually ended up getting canceled because of the weather, which is fine, because I, too, was kind of in the zone and had sent you an email at 330. And then I looked up and it was 410. Are we still doing this? But no, it's been fun. Bourbon is a way of life for me. The one cool thing that we've been doing is a tool that you actually introduced to me last week on Wednesday. I record the Dewey Beach podcast on Thursday, and I ended up playing with this tool called Cast Magic, and it was pretty robust. I mean, you sent probably an hour after we finished recording an email to me that said, this was generated by AI in whatever, under ten minutes. And it was a synopsis of the show. It was a great newsletter and fantastic. So it was a neat tool, especially for somebody who does podcasts like we do, because I am always in the frame of mind. Well, I'm always doing so many other projects. And truthfully, the podcast, I some feel like it is a vanity project, right? In some respects. So I want to promote it. We talk about this all the time is that we don't really do a good job of pushing our own show that we've been doing for a know recording as long as Joe Rogan has, with a fraction of percent of the success. But this was a really neat tool. Cast Magic is I was able to go into my Dewey podcast, and because it gives you timestamps of interesting parts in my editing, I can go right to that and be like, oh, boom, there it is. They give you creative titles. They give you a lot more than just the breakdown or newsletter. I was really kind of impressed in the volume of stuff that they were able to just pull out and then slice and dice. Some of it's repetitive, but it's good. It's probably the best bit that gets what is happening in the podcast that I've seen so far.Tony Russo [00:10:22]:Absolutely. I started using it at work. I do a podcast called Funeral Service Insider, the podcast, and if you're into, like, death stuff, you should listen to it. It's mostly for funeral directors, so some of it's inside baseball, but some of it is cool stuff to know. I just recorded one about Green Burial, which is a hot topic, but what I discovered, I can't remember. I would love to tell you who I got it from, but I can't. I heard about it on a podcast. And what this does is it does a transcript. So the transcript has got to be 80% accurate. It's just as good as one that you'd pay for, except that it's part of it. And one of the things that I liked about the transcript, which was really the first thing that drew to me, is for my podcast at work. And now, of course, for this podcast, there's SEO to be had if you have a lot of text about everything that we talk about just gets put onto text. So I like that. And then I like the summary. It will write an introduction. It will write a reels script. It will write a social media post for LinkedIn. It will write a tweet thread for Twitter, and now a thread thread for threads.Todd DeHart [00:11:44]:Yeah, I love it. To give you ten options for each of those platforms.Tony Russo [00:11:51]:Yes. And you can scroll through and get extra ones. The other thing and maybe we can start to do this next week, the other thing it gives you is discussion questions.Todd DeHart [00:12:00]:Yes.Tony Russo [00:12:02]:And the discussion questions I find wonderful. But last week it's funny to hear a computer critique you. And last week I felt a little critiqued by the computer because the computer didn't want to repeat what I said. Something like, Tony had some controversial thoughts about Andrew, and I'm like, wow, the computer is hedging. Maybe I did go off the rails a little bit. I don't want to self censor because I'm afraid of the computer, but it is something that when I saw that the computer was, like, afraid to kind of try and contextualize what I said, they're like, you know what? Listen to it if you want. I wouldn't. This guy's a maniac who wants to kill everyone.Todd DeHart [00:12:57]:Yeah. Soon, in the not too distant future, you'll actually be linked up to the computer that will be monitoring live. It'll give you a little shock, like a little zapper from the e collar to be like, no, pull it back in. Pull it back in.Tony Russo [00:13:14]:Well, I'm making that part of an essay. I don't think it'll be out this week. It'll probably be out next week on Substac bytonyruusso Substac.com about I don't care if people think I'm racist, but I do care if computers think I'm racist.Todd DeHart [00:13:34]:Interesting.Tony Russo [00:13:35]:And the main reason is because if people think I'm racist, there are probably other white people, and I don't care, as one of the, quote, curses, if there is a downside to being a white guy, it's that all the racists treat you like you're on their team because you're a white guy. And sometimes you have to be like, yeah, I don't really agree with that. Or sometimes you just have to say, oh, I'm late for something and leave. But people say awful, vile things to you as a white guy that, I swear to God they don't say to anybody else. Yeah. And so there's no point in me wearing a sign. I guess back when there was the mask controversy, that was convenient. You could wear a mask and no one would say anything racist to you. They're like, oh, you're a mask person. That means you're not a racist. I don't know why, but if the computer thinks you're a racist, it's going to change what it shows you. And I don't want to miss out on stuff because the computer thinks I'm a right. So while I was on vacation, I watched a movie. I watched, I think, two whole movies the entire week. One of them wasn't a good movie, but I want to talk about it. It was called Safe, and it stars Denzel Washington and Reynolds. Like, how bad could that movie be, right? It wasn't great.Todd DeHart [00:15:04]:It was was it would be Ryan Reynolds being Ryan Reynolds cast opposite an incredible actor in.Tony Russo [00:15:15]:It was it was a spy thriller. It was very Jason Bourney like, by minute two, you're like, okay, I see how this goes. But on Amazon, there were two promotional videos for Know. Amazon has the previews, right? They'll show you, like, the COVID all right? So if you look up Safe and I took pictures of it, I don't know if you can still do it today, but I challenge you to try. If you look up Safe, there's one with Denzel Washington on the COVID and then there's another one with Ryan Reynolds on the COVID Right. And to hopefully get more diverse suggestions from Amazon, I clicked on the Denzel Washington cover, and it said, this title is not available. But then I clicked on the Ryan Reynolds title and was subjected to two and a half hours of very predictable spy.Todd DeHart [00:16:25]:So title not available under Denzel and completely available.Tony Russo [00:16:34]:That's interesting.Todd DeHart [00:16:34]:I don't know.Tony Russo [00:16:36]:And I wonder if it's because last year when we went on vacation, the house we rented, we believe had been rented by a black family before. And the reason we believe that is because there's a black Netflix, like there's s**t that you will never see because you're a white person and what you watch. But they were still signed into their black Netflix unquote. And so all of the suggestions were movies that I'd never seen, television shows I had never seen, people that I'd never heard of. And my wife explained to me that this was normal and that everybody knew it but me and apparently you.Todd DeHart [00:17:17]:I didn't know that. Wouldn't it, though just be the previous family regardless of yes, it could have.Tony Russo [00:17:25]:Been a white family that only watched black entertainment. It's true. But my guess is whether the point is whatever they watched, they were getting suggestions that I had never even seen. There were movies on there that never come up in my spectrum. And that's when I started realizing that our choices, our online choices make us racist by accident. Because if we don't choose enough black things, then they stop showing us black things and then we won't get to see cool black things when they come out.Todd DeHart [00:18:04]:It is interesting. I'm going to interject, if you don't mind, handling several different channels for several different clients and then including my own. A number of the channels that I handle, I solely handle. So like the search page or the for you page kind of reflect the stuff that I get personally. So if you go to the back end of the Starboard Instagram handle and you look at and you do a search, there's going to be some marvel stuff in there. There's going to be some lacrosse highlights, right? The algorithm is tuned into me. What is interesting is so we had a couple of new restaurants open up and then it's like what the baseline is before me and or the business has established. And I don't know. We opened Starboard Claw and it is all a bunch of big boobed women holding fifth for some reason at the beach. And I'm like scroll. Scroll? All right, cocktail video. Let's look at that. Like seafood. Let's look at that. You have to train the algorithm a little bit, right?Tony Russo [00:19:29]:Because it knows who you are or it's got a good guess who you are. But who I am isn't what I want to be or who I am isn't who I want to be. I don't want to miss out on things just because of previous choices, which is of course how life works and why it can be disappointing, but that should be with people. But when it's with the algorithm, it's worth knowing. It's worth knowing. So you make other know. The movie wasn't any good, but at least I showed them that I'll click on a black face sometimes. You could show me more black faces. I'm not afraid. I just want to send them a note. I want to send Amazon a note and say, listen, yeah, I'll watch movies with black people in them. If you show them to me. But if you keep them hidden from me, then I won't. And then I'll just reaffirm how narrow minded I am when it comes to tune in, tune out entertainment. Right.Todd DeHart [00:20:31]:Well, I wonder if they need a category and not stuff you might like. It would be stuff if you're thinking about expanding your horizons or if you want to learn something about somebody that's not like you, that should be a whole category on Netflix, right?Tony Russo [00:20:51]:Yeah.Todd DeHart [00:20:53]:Stuff you might potentially hate. And this is why.Tony Russo [00:20:57]:Well, I guess they could turn it inside out. I don't know if you know about the Napoleon Dynamite complex and Napoleon Dynamite problem.Todd DeHart [00:21:07]:No.Tony Russo [00:21:08]:So Netflix has and I think they still have it a contest every now and again. The first one they had was for Napoleon Dynamite. And it was a million dollars to improve their who did the best improvements of their algorithm. And the problem that they had was Napoleon Dynamite became crazy famous on Netflix. And there was no rhyme or reason for who watched Dynamite. Like, it was people who watched The Notebook, people who only watched you know, it was like there was no napoleon Dynamite didn't fit anywhere in the algorithm.Todd DeHart [00:21:55]:Right.Tony Russo [00:21:56]:And they're like, well, how can we make the algorithm find more Napoleon Dynamites that everyone's going to love? And that's something that they've been doing for a long time. But I think that, as you said, maybe throw a couple in there that I'm going to hate. Like, you have to watch this. That's right. For 1495 a month, you get Netflix. For 1395 a month, you get Netflix. But they get to choose the first movie you watch of the week. And you can't watch any more movies.Todd DeHart [00:22:27]:Until you watch that.Tony Russo [00:22:28]:Until you watch that whole one.Todd DeHart [00:22:30]:It would be great. It would be like an amuse boost for your viewing pleasure. It's like, you need to watch this because we know you, and this is going to make you a better person and viewer.Tony Russo [00:22:47]:This is a hole in your instead of trying to make a pile of stuff that I like, fill the holes of my mean, I I'd be for really it's rare that I watch a movie because they're always bad. And as I was watching this stupid Denzel Washington movie, I'm like, man, now it thinks I'm a racist and I have to watch this bad movie because I don't turn movies off. Once I started, I'm committed.Todd DeHart [00:23:13]:Yeah, now they think you're a racist and like bad.Tony Russo [00:23:16]:I know. I know.Todd DeHart [00:23:18]:Let's give this racist jerk some more crap.Tony Russo [00:23:22]:All Chris Pine all the time. That's all I can see. Chris Pine movies. Oh, and that other guy, the jumping around guy from The Office that's playing Jack Ryan now. John Krasins.Todd DeHart [00:23:37]:Oh, yeah.Tony Russo [00:23:40]:Unlikely. White guys doing action movies. Go. So that's my thing on AI. You wanted to talk about July, and I want to let you okay.Todd DeHart [00:23:56]:So I feel like this comes up every time this year, and I always like the question to be, is July 4 the beginning or middle of summer? And a lot of people have different answers. I personally always fall in the middle because I'm looking at summer as being between Memorial Day and Labor Day. But a lot of high school kids are in school through the middle, at least of June, and a lot of college kids have to go back in the beginning of August. If you want to boil it down, the love of summer is solely the month of July. So that would make sense that July 4 is actually kind of the beginning, but it's also the middle because it's compressed so much. But it's always been something. And I don't know. It's kind of a silly question. And people have strong opinions either way. But what I realized is somebody it's kind of like take a step back and when you're sitting and it's freezing and you're daydreaming about the best time of year could be up for interpretation. But a lot of people think about summertime and vacation, schools out, all of that. And the importance is to take time in this moment right now, the middle of July, the middle of summer, and just acknowledge it and enjoy it. Be a little present if I can borrow from my yoga practice a little bit, right? I played golf yesterday, played golf at Glen Riddle. And I kind of despise the purpose of golf, but it is what it is, and I think the best explanation I heard, it's sport for white guys who hate water. Something about arrogance. But I enjoy being with my friends and I enjoy being outside, and it's the middle of the month. It's the middle of summer, the middle of the season, and we played Twilight because we're cheap and wanted to get a better rate, and it was fantastic. And I was super tired, and it was a little bit run down from a busy weekend and week, but it was great. So take time. Remember the moment you're in, and it's up to interpretation as to what the best time of year is, because then you can always look forward to the next best time of year.Tony Russo [00:26:59]:Yeah. And at the risk of getting too Zen about it, you can just also kind of learn to enjoy the moment that you're in, whether it's your favorite time of year or not. I'm not good at that. As we said in the beginning of the show, every time I wake up and I'm in Del Mar, it's not going to be a great day. The only other options I have is to not wake up, which is going to be even a worse day. And that's the last thing I think before I fall asleep every night. All right, well, we are up against it, and we had a great time. Please do all the social things that we ask you to do or not, but we should ask. Do it and tell me how you're enjoying the newsletter. I sent out the one newsletter. I'm going to send out another one. And we're letting AI write it. I'm fixing stupid mistakes, but not like when the machine's like, oh, Tony really put his foot in his mouth this time. I'm leaving that in. I don't care.Todd DeHart [00:28:08]:Soon the AI newsletter will just be and Tony says something controversial.Tony Russo [00:28:15]:I love being a cliche. Well, I'm out of stuff. How about you?Todd DeHart [00:28:21]:I got nothing.Tony Russo [00:28:22]:All right. Well, remember, until next time at the.Todd DeHart [00:28:24]:Beach, it's happy hour whenever you say it is. Cheers. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit daydrinkingondelmarva.substack.com

Dr. Charles Loprinzi shares the latest update to the management of cancer cachexia guideline. Dr. Loprinzi discusses the evidence that prompted the rapid update to the guideline and reviews the new evidence-based recommendations, including the addition of low-dose olanzapine as a treatment option for patients with advanced cancer to improve weight gain and appetite. Dr. Loprinzi reviews the limitations of the update, and outstanding research questions in the domain of cancer-associated cachexia. Read the latest update, "Cancer Cachexia: ASCO Guideline Rapid Recommendation Update" at www.asco.org/supportive-care-guidelines TRANSCRIPTThis guideline, clinical tools, and resources are available at http://www.asco.org/supportive-care-guidelines. Read the full text of the guideline and review authors' disclosures of potential conflicts of interest disclosures in the Journal of Clinical Oncology, https://ascopubs.org/doi/10.1200/JCO.23.01280  Brittany Harvey: Hello and welcome to the ASCO Guidelines podcast, one of ASCO's podcasts delivering timely information to keep you up to date on the latest changes, challenges, and advances in oncology. You can find all the shows, including this one, at asco.org/podcasts. My name is Brittany Harvey, and today I'm interviewing Dr. Charles Loprinzi from Mayo Clinic, Co-Chair on “Cancer Cachexia: ASCO Guideline Rapid Recommendation Update.” Thank you for being here today, Dr. Loprinzi.  Dr. Charles Loprinzi: It's a pleasure to participate. Brittany Harvey: Then, just before we discuss this guideline, I'd like to note that ASCO takes great care in the development of its guidelines and ensuring that the ASCO conflict of interest policy is followed for each guideline. The disclosures of potential conflicts of interest for the guideline panel, including Dr. Loprinzi who has joined us here today, are available in line with the publication of the guideline in the Journal of Clinical Oncology, which is linked in the show notes.   Then, to get into the content of this rapid recommendation update, first, Dr. Loprinzi, what prompted this rapid update to the ASCO management of cancer cachexia guideline, which was previously published in 2020? Dr. Charles Loprinzi: The impetus for the updated guideline was a recent JCO publication regarding the results of a randomized controlled trial looking at olanzapine. This prompted the expert panel to revisit this topic. The trial, conducted in India, involved 124 patients with stomach, hepatopancreatobiliary, or lung cancers as they initiated chemotherapy. Weight gain greater than 5% occurred in 60% of patients in the olanzapine arm versus 9% of the patients in the placebo arm with a p-value of 0.001 or less. Substantially improved appetite was seen in 43% versus 13%, with placebo also a p-value of less than 0.001. Grade 3 or greater chemotherapy toxicity was less common with olanzapine 12% versus 37%, with placebo with a p-value of 0.002. No substantial olanzapine-associated toxicity was apparent. There was one evidence of this with olanzapine versus two for placebo. So that was the reason for going ahead with this update. Brittany Harvey: I appreciate that background information. So then, based on this updated study on olanzapine, what are the updated recommendations from the expert panel for treating cancer cachexia? Dr. Charles Loprinzi: So, let me start to address this question by reviewing what the 2020 ASCO guidelines published said regarding the management of cancer cachexia in adults with advanced cancer. It concluded that evidence was insufficient to strongly endorse any pharmacologic agent for established anorexia/cachexia. Nonetheless, the guideline recommendation supported that clinicians could offer a short-term trial of a progesterone analog such as megestrol acetate or a corticosteroid such as dexamethasone to patients experiencing weight loss and/or appetite stimulation. These drugs stimulated appetite and caused weight gain, but they did not improve quality of life, they did not improve survival, and there was toxicity associated with these agents and therefore it was not strongly recommended.  The expert panel thoroughly discussed a potential role for olanzapine because of a couple of trials suggesting it was beneficial but concluded that the evidence was insufficient for a recommendation. Now, there was evidence from two randomized trials that supported olanzapine was an effective alternative for treating cancer-associated anorexia/cachexia. Thus, olanzapine was considered promising, but the data were not conclusive enough to support a guideline treatment recommendation. The new JCO publication was the impetus for making this guideline change. Brittany Harvey: Understood. So then, based off this new change to the recommendations, what is the breadth of these recommendations and what do these options mean for patients with advanced cancer?  Dr. Charles Loprinzi: The updated guidelines recommended that for adults with advanced cancer, clinicians could offer low-dose olanzapine once daily to improve appetite and cause weight gain. It was noted that the majority of the evidence for this recommendation came from patients with lung or GI cancers, and the largest study enrolled patients who were receiving cytotoxic chemotherapy concurrently. Having said this, there's evidence from the other two randomized trials noted above that olanzapine is helpful in patients with a wide variety of cancers and regardless of whether patients were receiving concomitant chemotherapy.   Of note, extensive data support that olanzapine leads to significant appetite stimulation and weight gain in patients without cancer who were taking olanzapine for psychiatric reasons. This was known from a long time ago in patients in that situation, who don't necessarily want to gain weight, would gain 10-20-30-40 pounds, get prediabetes, and get diabetic sort of troubles. The guideline update continues to support that clinicians may offer a short-term trial of a progesterone analog or a corticosteroid to those experiencing weight loss and/or appetite when there's a good reason for not using olanzapine.  Brittany Harvey: Understood. I appreciate you reviewing those two updated recommendations from the guideline panel.  So then you've talked about this a little bit already in describing the study details, but what is exciting about olanzapine in this setting and what should clinicians know as they implement these updated recommendations?  Dr. Charles Loprinzi: It's exciting that olanzapine is now the best-studied established treatment available for patients suffering from cancer-associated anorexia/cachexia in different oncologic situations, for prevention and/or for treatment of cancer-associated or cancer treatment-associated nausea and/or vomiting, and for treatment of cancer-associated anorexia/cachexia. Varying daily doses of olanzapine have been used, ranging from 2.5 to 10 milligrams per day. Data support that it is quite appropriate to use the 2.5-milligram per day dose for the initial treatment of cancer-associated appetite and/or weight loss. For patients who do not appear to benefit and have no apparent olanzapine toxicity, it seems reasonable to me to try a higher dose. Another thing to note is that olanzapine is a generic drug which is relatively inexpensive. While this drug has been noted to cause sedation, such sedation is usually short-lived despite drug continuation. Brittany Harvey: So then, it's great to hear that recent data have caused an update to these guidelines. But in your perspective, Dr. Loprinzi, what are the most pressing outstanding questions regarding the management of cancer cachexia? Dr. Charles Loprinzi: My goodness, you're putting pressure on me. I've been involved with a large number of cancer anorexia/cachexia trials for the better part of four decades, which did not support as strong an ASCO guideline recommendation as we now have with olanzapine. Noting that I was involved with one of the trials that supported that olanzapine was helpful for treating cancer-associated anorexia/cachexia. This is one of the trials. It was a short trial. We were mainly looking at nausea and vomiting treatment for advanced cancer, but we saw a marked increase in appetite in over just a day or two of using olanzapine. Having said this, there's always room for improvement, and a number of drugs are under development for treatment of cancer-associated anorexia/cachexia.   Recent discussions regarding the topic of olanzapine for treating cancer-associated anorexia/cachexia noted that the primary endpoint of the current trial was weight gain and that this was felt to be a more objective endpoint than appetite would be. As noted in the earlier part of the discussion, substantial improvement was seen both in weight gain and appetite, both with p-values of less than 0.001. My own opinion is that appetite improvement is as important, if not more important than is weight gain in the study population. Given that the trial was double-blinded and placebo-controlled, appropriate questionnaires regarding appetite should be able to be considered as an objective evaluation of a subjective symptom in the same way that appropriate questionnaires regarding a patient's pain can be considered an objective evaluation of a subjective symptom. For some of these subjective symptoms, you just don't have other good ways we can figure these things out by a blood test or something like this. So it's what the patient says which is most important.  Brittany Harvey: Absolutely. Incorporating how the patient feels is key to achieving better outcomes for patients.  So I want to thank you so much for your work to rapidly update this guideline and thank you for your time today, Dr. Loprinzi. Dr. Charles Loprinzi: You're welcome. Pleasure to participate. Brittany Harvey: And thank you to all of our listeners for tuning in to the ASCO Guidelines podcast. To read the full guideline, go to www.asco.org/supportive-care-guidelines. You can also find many of our guidelines and interactive resources in the free ASCO Guidelines app, available in the Apple App Store or the Google Play Store. If you have enjoyed what you've heard today, please rate and review the podcast and be sure to subscribe so you never miss an episode. The purpose of this podcast is to educate and inform. This is not a substitute for professional medical care and is not intended for use in the diagnosis or treatment of individual conditions.   Guests on this podcast express their own opinions, experiences, and conclusions. Guest statements on the podcast do not express the opinions of ASCO. The mention of any product, service, organization, activity, or therapy should not be construed as an ASCO endorsement.    

In part one of this series we told you about Stevie, Michael, Chris and the murders that would forever change West Memphis Arkansas. We told you things the way that they seemed, now it's time to get into things the way that they actually were.In this episode we try and gain a broader understanding of the Satanic Panic and it's origins (from preschools to memoirs to rock music) while examining how this same search for satan narrowed the murder investigation by the West Memphis Police Department in 1993We learn about the way polygraphs were used in the investigation and why they held so much weight for the police and some of the people who may have gotten off without much questioning.We also include passages from Damien's book Life After Death and the book Jason Baldwin helped write with Mara Leverit, Dark Spell. We end this episode with a confession from Jesse Misskelley and the arrests of Damien Echols and Jason Baldwin.There's so much to unpack in this episode and this case!Sources:Jenkins, P (1992). Intimate enemies: moral panics in contemporary Great Britain. New York: Aldine de Gruyter.Victor, J (1998). "Construction of Satanic Ritual Abuse and the Creation of False Memories". In DeRivera J; Sarbin T (eds.). Believed-In-Imaginings: The Narrative Construction of Reality. Washington, D.C.: American Psychological Association.Finkelhor, David; Williams, Linda Meyer; Burns, Nanci; Kalinowski, Michael (1988). Sexual Abuse in Day Care: A National Study; Executive Summary (Report). Durham, North Carolina: University of New Hampshire. Michelle Remembers, Lawrence Pasdar and Michelle Smith (1980)Court Documents:http://callahan.mysite.com/custom.htmlMurders in West Memphis- https://www.jivepuppi.comYoung WC; Sachs RG; Braun BG; Watkins RT (1991)."Patients reporting ritual abuse in childhood: a clinical syndrome. Report of 37 cases".Child Abuse Negl. 15 (3): 181–89. Damien Echols, Life After DeathMara Leverit, Dark Spell (with Jason Baldwin)Goleman, Daniel (October 31, 1994)."Proof Lacking for Ritual Abuse by Satanists". The New York Times. Fraser, GA (1997). The Dilemma of Ritual Abuse: Cautions and Guides for Therapists. American Psychiatric Publishing, IncSpanos, NP (1996). Multiple Identities & False Memories: A Sociocognitive Perspective. American Psychological Association. pp. 269–85. McLeod, K; Goddard CR (2005). "The Ritual Abuse of Children: A Critical Perspective".Wood, JM; Nathan, D; Nezworski, MT; Uhl, E (2009). "Child sexual abuse investigations: Lessons learned from the McMartin and other daycare cases"Geraldo Show - March 16, 1994 TranscriptMaury Povich Show - August 2, 1994 TranscriptCNN - "Presumed Guilty: Murder in West Memphis" - January 14, 2010 TranscriptPiers Morgan Tonight: "West Memphis Three Freed After 18 Years" - September 29, 2011 TranscriptThis show is part of the Spreaker Prime Network, if you are interested in advertising on this podcast, contact us at https://www.spreaker.com/show/5803223/advertisement

The United Nations has warned that the world is at risk of exceeding the 1.5 degrees Celsius limit for global warming in the next 10 years. How is Malaysia responding to the climate crisis? We speak to Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad, Minister for Natural Resources, Environment and Climate Change on progress to reduce carbon emissions, the timeline for tabling the National Adaptation Plan and concerns over environmental data transparency.Auto-generated TranscriptThis is a podcast from BFM 89.9. The business station,The BFM Breakfast Grille, connecting you to the top people and ideas powered by U Mobile 5G. Now with you.Good morning, you're listening to the Breakfast Grille. I'm Syazana Mokhtar. The science couldn't be more clear. The world is running out of time to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius with un scientists warning that we could breach this target in the 2030s without urgent action.The house is on fire. So how is the Malaysian government responding to the climate change? Alarm bells? Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad, Minister of Natural Resources Environment and climate change? Joins me on the show today to discuss this. Thank you for taking the time to speak with us. Nik. Welcome to the show. Hi, thanks for having me here. I'm going to put you on the spot. Is Malaysia facing a climate emergency?Well, definitely, I mean, we, we see it every day. We see it with the floods that we have that keep breaking records year after year and we see it with the incoming heat wave that we're having now. So definitely we are facing a climate emergency like other countries in the world. Ok. So you have taken a different position from the previous government. The national government said there wasn't a need yet to declare a climate emergency as efforts were being taken to combat climate change. In this sense, you're departing from their stance, Malaysia is facing a climate emergency. Well, in substance. Yes. But what I'm saying, you know, I think what was asked by the previous, on the previous government was for the government to declare a climate emergency in law with that? I think that, you know, I I I think that we don't have to declare a legal climate emergency. It was declared in law in the UK and nothing much has happened. What is more important I think is to understand about how big the climate situation is and to address it rather than, you know, putting us to certain standards that may be, you know, that, that are false or provide an illusion. Ok. At the same time, you acknowledge there is a climate emergency of sorts, but you have also postponed the climate change bill which was a piece of legislation that was on the cusp of being tabled by the the national government. If not for GE15, you push that back another 2 to 3 years. Why has this bill been delayed similar to having, you know, about declaring us having a climate emergency? I do not want us to just tick the boxes without having a significant or substantial uh meat to the legislation. So, with regards to the Climate Change Act, and I, I know uh my, my predecessors, a few generations back Yeo Bee Yin,Uh she did put some work into it, you know, and, and it was uh uh what do you call that progressing at good pace? However, when I came into office, I didn't get much on the table uh from my immediate predecessors. Uh So, you know, for me, you know, I do not want to just rush a Climate Change Act this year.Uh And seeing that it does not address many of the things that we want to address. Um Actually, we have many legislations that are existing that can address climate change, uh that we can work on, make it more effective, which is, is I think uh as important as having a Climate Change Act in place. So you tweeted back in February this, that we want a bill that's not toothless, that is comprehensive and that will be truly impactful what was lacking in the draft bill that warrants a complete overhaul from your perspective. I think I've said it often enough that uh I did not get anything from my predecessor.So, so now, you know, the team, that's why you're starting from scratch. Yes. Um You know, so I'm, I'm asking the officials at the ministry and and you know, for us to have a, to have a really thorough look at the legislation to really consult widely um to see how other countries are doing uh the the legislation and also to have a proper engagement with the various stakeholders, civil society, um academia, businesses to see when the bill comes out, it will be truly comprehensive. So at this point, do you have, I suppose a vision of sorts, Nik in terms of what you think should be in this bill or what you want it to encompass?I think there are two key elements um in terms of carbon emissions. Uh it's something that we really need to address. Uh but you know, as a country, we do not emit that much, we emit about 0.69% of the carbon emissions globally. We are doing quite well compared to many other countries at our stage of development and our size of economy. However, we are also, we also have to play our part. I mean, that's very crucial.And secondly, we are a trading nation as we know many um E N E companies, for example, are putting stringent climate goals. So if we do not uh have uh ambitious climate goals, then we, you know, our industries will be hollowed out in the next 5, 10 years. That's one. Uh but the other part which is just as important is things like adaptation and mitigation.Um I think that is more urgent for Malaysia. We are a country, a maritime country. Basically, we've seen the floods, we've seen sea level rise, we've seen erosion happening.Um So I think those are things that we need to address in the Climate Change Act to ensure that we are able to, you know, survive, you know, when, when it comes to not just 2050 2030. All right, ambitious climate change targets. That that's what you mentioned carbon targets. So Malaysia has clear goals for climate mitigation that were submitted to the United Nationsas part of our National Determined Contribution N D CS. We updated that in 2021 we're going to reduce the intensity of carbon emissions by 45% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels. Some parties would argue that our N DC targets are not ambitious enough, reducing carbon intensity by 45% of 2005 levels can be done without actually lowering emissions. How would you respond to that?Well, I think one of the concerns um in fact, I mean, there are two sides to the argument. Some people also said that, you know, we put that target unconditionally many other countries when they have their submissions to the N DC on reduction of carbon intensity, it was conditional but we, you know, we gave it away. But I think, you know, it is what it is and, and I think we will be reviewing it uh in the next few years. Um So I think as long as we, we, we stick to that plan,um I think we are in good state because um actually many of our targets are very ambitious compared to our neighboring countries, even the more advanced ones. Um But the issue is not about targets alone, it's about the pathways to achieve those targets. You know, it's like, you know, going a, a student going and declaring to his parents, I'm going to get 10 A in S PM and not studying, you know, or or not working for it. So the targets I think is there is about working and finding the pathways to achieving those targets. So just to clarify, uh Malaysia has also pledged to become net zero at the earliest by 2050 this was announced by the Ismail Al Sabri government and this is a pledge that the present government also intends to stick to. Yes. Yes. Ok. UmOne of the key pieces of Malaysia's climate mitigation strategy is the transition to renewable energy which the government targets to reach 40% generation capacity by 2035. My question for you, Nik is, can this be achieved without first dismantling the fuel subsidies that are keeping energy prices artificially low? For Malaysians? At the, at the moment,I think the shift to uh targeted subsidies is crucial for us to jumpstart our energy transition. And we've started that, you know, one of before one month in office. Uh My first task was to uh have the review for the next IC P T cycle where we, where we increase the surcharge um for industries for commercial sectors which were using uh which were medium and high voltage users in the energy sector.Uh by what, 400% right from, from uh all the way to 20 cent. Um it still subsidized. Uh but it's a huge increase from what it was. Uh And, and I think, uh and there was a lot of complaints, uh, understandably and, but I also think that industries, businesses need to understand that we have uh given a blanket subsidy for so long, you know, and many of these uh businesses have enjoyed that. Right.So, uh complaints, yes. Um a lot of noise in the media but uh ultimately, you know, I met a few of them after a few months and, and now they have adopted uh energy efficiency plans. They are using more solar. Uh And I think just because it's uh priced nearer to the market and people understand that and I think um the plan is not just for the industries and commercial sector, the non-domestic sector, but also for the domestic uh consumers for the, at least we can start with the T 20. I mean, if you are using, uh if you're having a bungalow, a landed house with 10 air cons, you know, dryers and what not, you should be paying a market rate for your electricity. I mean, that's something that we, we, we, we want to work on, right. Um So, so that's part of it, the energy efficiency and Conservation Act is it has been in the works, I think even during the Naps administration, we hope to pass it this year. So I think that will be another important impetus towards energy transition.Uh And, and yes, as you rightly said, the next other part, the other part is electrification of mobility of, of transport. Um And we also need to address where now you know, if you are using regardless, I mean, even people who are using the most expensive cars uh are now using route 95 for example, because it subsidized,it's cheaper. So I think we also need to address that towards targeted subsidies so that then people will make that transition towards electric vehicles as well. Does the fuel subsidies? Does that come under your portfolio? As an R E C C Minister? I mean, do you have influence over what happens? Input will be there? But it's led by the Ministry of Finance anduh Ministry of Domestic Trade. And yeah, ok. I'm speaking to Nik Nazmi, Nik Ahmad, Minister for Natural Resources Environment and climate change is Malaysia doing enough on climate adaptation. We'll have more on the Breakfast Grilleafter the break. Stay tuned. BFM 89.9,you are listening to the breakfast grill brought to you by you Mobile 5G. Now with you.Thanks for staying tuned to the breakfast grill. I'm Syazana Mokhtar. And with me on the show today is Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad, minister for Natural Resources, Environment and climate change. Nik. Earlier on in the show, you mentioned the energy efficiency and Conservation Act, which you said has been long in the works. Why is this a priority for the government now?Well, because there's two sides to, to when we talk about energy, one is about having cleaner sources of energy generation, right? Uh We still have a lot of coal, for example, gas is low carbon but its still carbon. Um we want more solar and all that. So that's one element of it and, and that takes time,but the other element is energy efficiency. Uh because um we, we also know that actually um with new technology, a lot of equipment, a lot of uh uh machines and stuff are getting more and more efficient in terms of using energy. Um the electrical appliances that we use today are much more efficient in terms of using energy compared to what our grandparents were using. For example,the UK over the past 20 years, the energy consumption has gone on the downtrend, right? So if we can do that, that means we require less energy and, and that means we, we do not have to rely so much on, on the uh coal and gas plants that we have today. And, and you know, we also have enormous uh reserve margins for electricity. So that will definitely help in our energy transition.Nik is the introduction of an energy efficiency and conservation Act. A prerequisite of sorts to secure renewable energy transition deals with developed countries. I wonder, I understand that most of our neighbors have some form of energy efficiency regulation in place. And last year, both Indonesia and Vietnam concluded finance partnerships with rich countries to advance their green energy agenda. Is that part of the reason why you want to push this? Now,I I, you know, if you ask me, it's not just because of that. Um I think um if you talk, I mean, definitely we would love to be part of uh you know, all these lucrative deals um for us to accelerate our energy transition. Um I mean, if anyone can help us to have now our commitment is no new coal plants, but if we can have uh early retirement of coal plants with the right uh structure in our energy sector, with the right financing.Um whether it comes from overseas or from the banks and whatnot, it's something that we'd be happy to consider, right? Um But I think why, why we missed out was um and, and we actually have a lot of good policies and plans but maybe it was not communicated or marketed enough before. Um And I have spoken uh you know in cabinet, I've spoken to the Prime Minister that I think this is something thatit has to be central. And I think definitely, you know, the the Prime Minister has understood this. Uh we had a lot of things for my ministry in this budget 2023. So the government understands how important climate change is and and we hope that that that can be the key plank for the an Ibrahim administration. Ok. So there's definitely going to be more foreign policy outreach when it comes to thegreen energy agenda and the green agenda in general, I want to stick to energy a little bit more. The appointment of Mohammad Radan Moma Yusuf as chair of the Energy Commission in February did spark backlash given his then position as the Deputy managing Director of Gamuda Gauda is of course a major player in the renewable energy space. He has since resigned two months after he was first appointed. I mean, was this the result of the Prime Minister's intervention?No, I mean, uh you know, in the first place, uh obviously we did our checks and what not. Uh There are a few things that we have to correct. Dauda is not a major major renewable energy player. They have a small investmentuh in uh renewable energy. They are mostly uh construction uh property player and most of their revenues come from abroad. Uh But what, what, what was uh and I think the most important thing. Um Yes, as you rightly said, I think a lot of people were expecting him to design from S T but it was just a narrative that people wanted to create.Uh But uh rash, he, he made the choice to his credit that he, he was excited about contributing to this and, and I think, surprised a lot of people by resigning, not from S D but from Gamuda.Um And, you know, he has a long record of, of um being able to shake up um markets, being able to uh do uh various uh corporate uh restructuring that has uh left uh you know, it was really radical corporate restructuring, which I think uh uh has shaken up the market. And I thinkas that's why we wanted him there. You know, that's why we, we put him there was because he uh I, I believe that we can do better in terms of energy transition and, and we need to have a more uh you know, uh focus uh view on this and, and Rash is the right person for thisis that you've specified to him that you want to see him achieve in his post as the chair of the Energy Commission. Well, well, right now, you know, we, we under my R er we our renewable energy road map, we have targets of installed capacity for R E 31% as opposed to 24% present me31% in 2025 40% in 2035. Um But as I've said, if there are ways to accelerate that, if there are ways we can look at uh uh you know, to really ramp up solar uh to get uh Malaysia to play a central role in the ASEAN power grid.Um You know, we are already supply, we are already, our grid is already supplying electricity from Laos to Singapore. For example, you know, we should be able to be at the center for ASEAN. Once all the interconnections are there, um the looking at reviewing our ban on renewable energy exports, you know, so all these things are things that are the K P I s for for rush to achieve. Ok. So very full inbox trayand passing it on to him. I would like to turn our attention to the other side of the climate change action coin which is adaptation. How would you respond to accusations that the government is doing far too little to address climate resilience? The policy focus has been very much on mitigation on reducing carbon emissions as evidenced by the many blueprints on low carbon aspirations. When will the government present the Malaysia National Adaptation plan?Well, our uh we've just submitted our proposal to G C F, the Green Climate Fund uh to prepare the National Adaptation Plan N A P uh on 27 March this year. Uh and it is going to focus on water security and water resources, agriculture and food security,uh infrastructure, energy and environment, forest biodiversity, and public health. So yes, as I said, um you know, in truth, a lot of the things about carbon emissions and what not, we are a very small player in the big sum of things, right? Uh We, we, you know, other countries are contributing far, far more to that and, and even if we play our part and they don't, you know, we'll still be underwater by 2050.Uh But adaptation is then plays a very key role because we have more control over that.Uh We've seen the floods, we've seen what's happening. Um With regards to every uh uh places that have never been flooded are now experiencing floods. Um erosion. I've seen, you know, roads in, in the east coast, in the west coast where they are now disappearing because of uh erosion. So I think um adaptation plays a very key role and, and definitely, it's one of our focus and I think one of the things that we keep repeating on,um yes, we need to do the, the, the carbon emission side and all that because of yes, we want to play our part. Secondly, we are a global trading uh player. But adaptation is the priority. Uh if you want to talk about survival for our Children and their Children.So the previous government cited that Malaysia would need funding to the tune of 400 billion ring to overcome flooding issues until the end of this century. This is just for flooding is that the quantum that you have in mind as well in terms of what's going to be needed to invest in adaptation measures.Well, you know, if you want to talk about adaptation as a whole, it might be even more, right? Um but yeah, I mean, that's based on one study uh um that, that has been cited and, and definitely, you know, we are spending more and more uh for flood mitigation uh for adaptation. Uh We are also going to come up of uh flood hazard maps and whatnot so that it can be built in, in, in insurance. So, you know, basically the, the the country has to move uh has to transition towards this.Um The B and I think, you know, when, when some people look at it as a huge cost um is the biggest portion of my ministry, for example, uh flood. Uh But if you then calculate how much losses, ultimately loss of life, but also loss of property loss to the economic sectors.If there is. Uh I mean, when we see a sea level rise, our biggest uh port Port Clan will be totally exposed. Uh And what's the impact to our supply in the country? Right? Uh getting food, getting vital uh goods inuh our power plants and a lot of them are near the, the sea as well. Uh What will happen to them? So these are things that we have to recognize and, and then you will understand that the huge expenditure is actually affordable once you look at it because we are going to save much more when we spend on adaptation and mitigation. Ok. I think um many,I agree with you, Nik, I think that we do need to see more funding being sent to adaptation. But the point is we're not seeing it yet. So when will the government, I suppose put these efforts in motion, when will we see on the ground, the adaptation efforts take place? Well, I think um some of the, you know, flood the projects that are addressing floods and whatnot. I mean, that's already there. Uh But um I think the key part will definitely be uh when we have the National Adaptation plan because that will beuh you know, the, the, the focus for all our adaptation uh programs and projects. When will this be tabled? Um Well, we, we are working on it. I mean, as I said, it's been submitted to the uh to the G C F. So hopefully, uh we can uh you know, once we go through the various um stakeholder discussions because we want the inputuh from the grassroots, from the activists, from various stakeholders. Uh Then uh you know, then we can uh then we will uh make it as an official policy? Why has it taken so long for adaptation to be made a priority by the government? Do you think Nik? I mean, people would say this is, this is late, we are very late in coming up with this adaptation plan. Um What gives,well, you know, um I do not want to blame predecessors or whatnot, but I think sometimes, like I said, I mean, it, it becomes sexy to talk about uh carbon emissions because it's there. And, you know, some, a lot of times our energy uh sorry environment conversations are driven by what's been talked about in the developed countries. Um And obviously, I mean, I understand why, why, you know, they want to talk about carbon emissions, they are the major polluters, right?Uh They've cut down the forest for 2, 300 years and they've developed at our expense, but people don't want to talk as much about adaptation. Um because it's something that is more relevant to a maritime developing country like Malaysia.Um And, and I think, uh you know, sometimes you, you do get, you, you get uh you, you're stuck with the narrative that's been played in the developed countries. And I think we need to understand that every country's climate challenge differs. Uh you know, when you are a developed economy, when you're a big polluter compared to a developing country, which is um a peninsula and part of an island, right? So that, that's the context that we have to understand.I'm speaking to Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad, minister for Natural Resources, environment and climate change on an extended edition of the breakfast grill after the 8 30 AM news bulletin is Malaysian policy making being held hostage by state elections. Stay tuned. BFM 89.9.You are listening to the breakfast grill brought to you by you Mobile 5G. Now with you, you are listening to an extended edition of the breakfast grill. I'm Syazana Mokhtar. And with me today is Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad, Minister for Natural Resources Environment and climate change. Now, Nik earlier on, we were talking about adaptation and adaptation measures that Malaysia is taking. I would like to touch on forestry measures because unchecked development and deforestation have been cited as among the key reasons for the increased severity of flooding and higher incidents of landslides. Now, we know that forestry management is under state government purview. But what levers do you have in the federal government? What are you using to maintain oversight on what's happening at the state level?Yeah. So um when you are at the federal level, we have uh we do coordinate between the state governments. We have, we have Biodiversity Nagara which recently said uh we have the Malaysian Climate Change Action Council which is chaired by the Prime Minister. So uh a, so those are the platforms that we have uh with uh the state governments um in order to uh coordinate uh policies uh and also to share targets and best practices. Uh So what, what we try to do is um you know, you know, there, there are various things, for example, now, you know, when, even when there's a palm oil, for example, we have uh you know, sustainable palm oil certification, uh even for forest management. So that is an encouragement for them to conform because in order for them to have access to the widest markets, then they have to meet those targets. Um And most, I would say most states do meet those targets.Um And to be to the credibility of the standards when they don't, they are penalized. I mean, they are taken out uh the, the from the certification. Um but rather than just sort of a stick approach, uh you know, uh we also uh we also have uh what you call the incentives carrots, for example, which has been there since 2019 is the ecological fiscal transfer. How effective has this mechanism been?Well, uh you know, the, we, we do see um states because the main complaints when you talk about states that, that tend to have problems. I mean, I'm generalizing but it tends to be the states when, where they do not have a big uh commercial or industrial sector. So they rely on exploitation of forests. Um and they, they, they also tend to be the ones with the biggest forest covers. So they rely on exploitation of forests in order to uh for, for revenue.Um So they say, OK, you are giving us all these lofty targets and all that. But what's in it for us? And they are, it's, it's a bread and butter issue as well. I mean fair to them.So, so we say, OK, you know this uh E F T it was 60 million Ring Gate when it was launched in 2020 19. Then the last two years, it was 70 million ring gate each year. And now the Prime Minister has increased it to 100 and 50 million ring gate. But what's the take up is this actually going to state government is sitting in a bank somewhere? They, they all go to states. Um We look at uh one is the size of the forest coveruh but also what they are doing uh in terms of uh if, if they do add uh their, their uh permanent uh forest reserves, uh what they're doing for, for uh the uh the dilapidated forest, what are they doing to restore it? So there are a few criterias uh that we look into and we are trying to make it even more sophisticated so that uh you know, it's not just giving free money but it's conditional. Um And, and to encourage good behavior, I think that that's the most important thing.Um But yeah, I mean, the problems are there definitely, for example, uh was the only state that had a public consultation uh for the gaze of Forest. It was there in the enactment then last year, the previous government adopted that for the National Forestry Act amendment. Uh Unfortunately, after that, only one other state has adopted that as well. The others have yet to do so. So because that the state legislation in order to, to uh exercise that we have to keep reminding themthat, you know, you have to do that and, and it will eventually reflect, I mean, some of them now want to go into carbon trading and what not. If you don't do that, it will have an impact into the credibility of your carbon assets and so on and so forth. OK. So I can see that there is continuous engagement with the state governments on the initiative that they're taking on forestry management. Now there has been excellent investigative journalism byMalaysian organizations like Rainbow Watch and Makara on the gaps in forestry data, including differences between what satellite images show and what's in official records of land use. How are you addressing questions of government credibility when it comes to environmental data?Yeah, I mean, I, I think uh it's also an issue of sometimes an issue of definitions. OK. Uh I mean, I, I, I, I came up with a very open statement, you know, listening to and I, I in fact met, met uh with most of these NGO or or institutions listen to their concerns. Um Sometimes it's also an issue of how we can communicate better.Uh But yeah, for example, one of the major issues is whether forest plantations should be deemed as uh you know, forests at all. Um and, and we know that there's a problem states like for example, or even other states have issues with uh uh forest uh uh plantations and what we have been doing. Um You know, the the previous Prime Minister uh to his credit, he has uh put a moratorium on forest plantations because what happens is that it's supposed to repair dilapidated forest, then you're supposed to have uh you're able to have selective uh forestry uh exploitation over the next 30 years or something.But some often it goes to virgin forest and they just want the timber and then the replanting doesn't happen or it happens very slow or it's just uh mono species or, or foreign species that's been planted because it's, it's actually forest plantation can be very, very expensive if you want to do it, right. Uh So the moratorium was the right move and I think we really need to address uh to, to see um what can be done to address the damages that has been done by forest plantations. And so that's something that is in the works. Um So, and, and that adds to the discrepancy, the gaps in the data that's been raised by, by watch and and what the government has. OK. So this is something you're aware of, you're looking into it. Why can't data be more transparent? Nik? I think that's some of the things that these organizations are calling for, for this data to be made public so that more parties can scrutinize this. Uh Is that something that you are considering doing? Well? It's, that's the ideal uh you know, we have three forest Agencies, Saba and um and then, as I said, in terms of uh the jurisdiction is actually state jurisdiction, although JP S M is the body but then um you know, is in charge of its forest, is in charge of its forest and so on. So in that process, uh there is uh some uh mismatch of data as well. Um And, and I think um I mean, it's an ongoing process, it won't be easy. You know, when, I mean, uh when, when you want to talk about integrating uh government data um across the various levels of government uh across various agencies, it can be difficult. Um I mean, to be fair, I mean, even the government now we do use, I mean, we also use satellite. We, we also use uh to look at the problems of deforestation and what not. So we are also taking into account of all the data that's being used by other agencies, Penang South Islands. Uh Nik, let's talk about that. The Penang South Islands reclamation project received approval for its environmental impact assessment report last month, subject to 71 conditions. I haven't been able to find the E I A decision in the public domain. What are these conditions? It's actually in the website. Uh you can download it. Um But you, it's actually accessible uh in the website. Um uh What,what I can say is that uh you know, it is a process, it's not that I personally approve or reject the report. How much say do you have over this E A, I had a few things. Um, I mean, I met, uh, I, I, I listened to the case of the state government, you know, um, I, I also listen to uh the concerns that were raised against the project but it has its own process, it has its own board, uh that, that actually approves it.Uh, it's not an arbitrary thing where even the, I mean, that's, and that's how it should be, you know, it shouldn't be on one person to approve or disprove a project and, and to be fair, you know, it has gone through a long process. Um, it was approved what, 2018 and then, uh 2019 and then an appeal came in. Um, so the E I A was rejected, I think in 2020 or 2021. And then, umwhenever then the state, uh the project, the state authorities came out with uh the plan. Um, the, the, the uh related authorities had some concerns, you know, it was all addressed one by 11 by one.So it was a very comprehensive process. It took many, many years. Uh And, and I think that's why has this process been transparent enough because you yourself talked about how E I A reporting sometimes isn't transparent in the case of the Penang South Islands. It has it been trans, I mean, it's one, as I said, it's one of the most transparent and comprehensive uh processes for E I A that has been, that has happened. OK. That, that's one.But uh what, what the other thing that we have to bear in mind, even the approval was granted with 71 conditions. It's not a blank check and they still is still subject to the uh environmental Management plan. E MP being approved. It has not been approved, right? So there's a few more stages to go as well just because the A I A was conditionally approved, doesn't mean that, you know, it's alluh that they can do what they want there. OK. So what are you going to do then to ensure that there's proper oversight on the project implementation? Well, you know, like I said, you know, we, we will uh the, the E MP, the E MP will be looked into, we will ensure that uh what you call that uh the, the project can satisfy all the 71 conditions.Um And you know, there's still, I mean, people can still appeal if they want to appeal against the E I A approval, even though it's conditional. Uh people can still go to the state government uh that approves and, and you know, they have that process through the local government route. So there are various routes that they can use uh for anyone who is unhappy with the project.So Nik, here's the conundrum of the dilemma that I see the Penang South Islands project can be used as an example of the policy incoherence perhaps in terms of our climate change action. So on one hand, we have these goals of having adaptation, ensuring climate resilience of uh you know,2050 0 net zero targets. But at the same time, we are also green lighting, these projects which will cause massive carbon emissions which will destroy the marine biodiversity of the area. How do you reconcile these very two disparate uh I guess aims? No, I mean, even if you look at the report, there is an impact ultimately on some shrimp migration on fisheries. Yeah, but if you look at details, yeah, most of it has been mitigatedand we have to accept that unless we do not want to grow as an economy, then uh we can stop all development. Uh But that's always the balancing game that we have to recognize. I accept that there has to be sustainable development, but development is there and it has to be sustainable, right? And balancing that is not an easy job, I can recognize that.Um And, and you know, I said this like the thing, it was uh it was submitted, it was approved in 2019initially, right? And then it was uh uh the the the what they call that uh the appeal against it was accepted. So they had to go back. So the process was very rigorous. Um And with 71 conditions with many agencies, Fisheries, um there was a social impact as assessment done. Also things that are outside environment, traffic impact assessment,all those things were submitted. Uh So I think, you know, it was a very, very thorough process and, and I, that's how it should be done in the sense that any development process cannot be given as easily as it was before, it has to be looked thoroughly. UhBut it's something that we have to recognize that there will be uh uh what do you call that? There will be things that we have to give and take in any decision. But as much as possible, I would like, you know, the development has to be sustainable, right? We have one minute left on the clock Nik, but I can't let you go withoutmaking some reference to the political situation in the country. We're heading into state elections in the next six months, if not sooner. Is this a primary consideration in policy making for the government? Are you holding off on the tough decisions until after the polls to avoid risking the disenchantment among the voting public? No, I think uh for us it's what's best for the country. Um Obviously you have to be smart at communicating it. Obviously you have to listen to and engage with the stakeholders.Uh That's the political reality. Uh You, you have to be tactical about those things. But the big picture for us if we need to do something now, um it's a bit difficult then we will do it now because it's uh if it's necessary, Nik. Thank you very much for joining me on the show today. Thank you. Thank you very much. I've been speaking to Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad, Minister for Natural Resources, Environment and climate change. This has been the Breakfast Grille on BFM 89.9.The BFM Breakfast Grille is brought to you by you mobile 5G. Now with you.You have been listening to a podcast from BFM 89.9, the business station for more stories of the same kind. Download the BFM app.

TranscriptThis morning I went for a run in the woods, on these really beautiful trails that are used by snowmobiles.The organization that maintains the trails and works with landowners to allow access is called VAST - The Vermont Association of Snow Travelers.I'm not really sure if you're supposed to walk on them, but I don't really mind it, I meanI'm not a snowmobiler. I don't think it messes up the trails when they're really hard to walk on them, or to run on them. And they're really the only trails I could walk on right now without snowshoes around here. So I just kind of do it.The run goes up the hill beyond the yard and down into a field and it crosses a little road. And then it goes into some woods. The woods are pretty young, I'd say between 10 and 50 years old at the absolute maximum of the trees. There are a lot of beech trees with this canker disease, they have some yellow birch, silver birch. And a couple of maple trees, paper birch, and once in a while there's a pine tree. Kind of a scraggly woods over there.But the trail is nice, it goes up and down following the grade of a hill. And it eventually gets to this really large field that's owned by a family called the Mudges. And they are summer people, so they aren't here right now. There, the field opens up, the view opens up to something more than you'd expect in Colorado or something. There's a split rail fence and a grove aspen trees and you can see a far ridge with trees on top. If you took a photo of the right way, and people didn't really notice that you're surrounded by deciduous forests, you probably would think that you are in the Rockies or something.And the magic thing about it is of course, besides the snowmobiles that sometimes go by, there's no one on the trail ever. Because, this part of Vermont is pretty remote. It's not really close to anything, it's about an hour away from everything. And that makes it nice in some ways, but also pretty lonely.I ran up a steep hill after that through a different set of woods after crossing another road. And into this area that was a logging tract that's owned by owned by this guy named Hemenway who owned a couple thousand acres of forests around here. And he is a good forester type of a person. He contracted out to companies that just do very careful cutting. And so there's a lot of diversity in his woods. And he himself loved to walk in them. And there's been some memorials about him because he did such a beautiful job of preserving access and the woods themselves.And so those woods are pretty nice, they're pretty well thinned, and some pretty old trees in there that he left, probably told the loggers to leave some of the old trees, which is really good for wildlife.It's quite a steep hill over there, and running in the snow makes it really hard. And I think it's probably 500 feet vertical from the bottom to the top of it, maybe a little bit more. And the whole course is around 1000 or 1200. I would say it's about three and a half miles one way.I was trying to run in a pretty decent pace today. But running is always weird. I just I never know how fast I'm gonna run. Maybe it's because I have a phone that's like five years old. Doesn't really record stuff very accurately. But anyway, it was a good run.As I was coming back down to the big field. I started thinking about something that has been on my mind for a while. Which is this experience that I had when I got a vasectomy recently because this morning I had talked to my friend Beau, who's a Chinese medicine doctor, acupuncturistand herbalist, Alexander Technique practitioner, Tai Chi practitioner, lots of different things he's, he's into and really skilled at, and I was doing a consult with him. And so something I wanted to ask him about was this experience that happened during the vasectomy that I just had. I went to the Planned Parenthood in Burlington because I've only had good experiences with Planned Parenthood. With my girlfriend's needs, different gynecological needs over the years. And everything went pretty well.But there was this moment when I was on the table, when the nurse practitioner had cut the wrong part of some tissue, that was supposed to be the vas deferens. And the situation with this surgery is that they have to find the vas deferens by palpating them, touching them with the fingers, and then essentially using forceps or some kind of a clamp to pull them out of the pelvis.And it's extremely traumatic.I didn't really know that going into it. But it's like the worst pain I've ever felt, probably is like getting shot in the pelvis or getting kicked or hit with something really hard.And so she had to do that sensation, where she grabbed the vas deferens with some kind of forceps like three times instead of just two. And it did some damage.In the moment, what happened was I had what's called vessel vaso-vagal syncope, which means that you're fainting. It's like a state of shock. So what happened was, my hands and my feet started to go numb.And I started to get really cold and the pulse and the pulse oximeter on my finger, which is those little clamp-clamp things that measure your pulse in your blood pressure and stuff. Actually started to stop working because there was no blood in the extremities anymore. It started pool in the organs. Basically what was happening is I was undergoing a shock—because I saw some indecisiveness in the nurse and I was wondering how long this procedure was going to be prolonged because it was extremely uncomfortable. And I was wondering if she had done it right. I was wondering if she had hurt me.I have pretty good control over my physical reactions to things. But I guess this was a little too much. And I started to kind of go into that state of fainting.And it was really strange because the nurse and her assistants just wouldn't look at me. I think they felt embarrassed or afraid. And so they didn't look at me. They looked at the monitor. And the monitor wasn't reading anything. And so they were frustrated with the technology not showing them my vitals.And I felt disconnected from the experience.And I felt afraid of course.And in the end, what helped me was they said one thing I could do at the beginning was squeeze the assistants hand, so I reached out and took their hand and squeezed it. And it felt really warm and strong.And that's what brought me back.The nurse had me breath some oxygen from a tank, and that didn't really seem to do anything. But squeezing the person's hand, feeling that warmth and that comfort, was really what worked. And I remember at the end, standing up feeling fine. Saying something to nurse like, well, I guess this is a learning experience for all of us. Which probably wasn't the right thing to say. But I don't know, I can be kind of straightforward sometimes. And maybe she needed to be humbled a little bit. I don't know.What I felt like when I was laying there was that I wanted to get away from the experience. Things flooded through my mind. Places that I've been beautiful places that I've kind of left a part of myself, so to speak. Places I've hiked, camped, slept, places outside in nature, really. And it was really interesting that my mind went to this specific meadow, in the Gros Ventre wilderness, in northern Wyoming. It's extremely unused and extremely remote, even though it's close to a couple of national parks. And my mind went there to that place in that moment of fear, which I found pretty interesting.And then, as I recovered from reflecting on that experience, I started to feel bad about myself, I actually apologized to the nurses after the procedure, because I didn't want to inconvenience them, because I felt weak.Now, weakness comes from fear, or fear, creates weakness, or fear is part of the feeling of weakness. Anyway, they're related somehow. And I've always felt weak. I've never felt like a strong, physically strong person. And so weakness is something that I've always battled with. Athletic activities and stuff have never come naturally to me. And I never really was fast or strong, or any of those things that that men and boys are often expected to be. And so I've always felt kind of weak overall.And so when I was laying there, and I couldn't handle the pain, seemingly, of this operation, I felt weak. And I thought I had long ago left behind that kind of feeling. Because when I first left my home, which happened to be Nebraska, I started going on trips across the country alone in my car, and I wouldn't choose the direction, except West, and I wouldn't really choose a path and make a plan. And I wouldn't really decide on campsites or anything like that. My only rule was that I didn't want to pay for camping.And when a person is 18, or 19, or are in their early 20s, and they're pretty young and inexperienced, the world seems like kind of a scary place. At least it did to me. I had a lot of anxiety about my car breaking down, or getting lost or getting stuck somewhere, somebody yelling at me and telling me to leave or—just kind of unfounded fears that have since I've learned about now, that don't make any sense, but they were there. And I've always wondered about where those fears came from. And now even though I'm perfectly comfortable with traveling like that now, not paying for camping, camping wherever I find a flat space, on bike or on foot or in a car or whatever, just finding some pull off and going into the trees—my favorite kind of camping now, which used to terrify me. I used to not sleep when I did that. But that kind of a fear I thought I'd gotten over. Yet when I was on the table, experiencing that shock from the surgery kind of going wrong—I realized I hadn't. Or at least that fear still lives inside of me somewhere because I still felt weak, which is really the source of where that fear came from.In other words, I felt bad about myself.I felt like I wasn't good enough or strong enough.A friend of mine is a really good runner. I can't even explain how beautiful he looks when he runs. I've never actually seen him run in person just videos. Which makes me sad to say. But the fact is, if we ever tried running together, he'd just completely leave me behind. So it probably wouldn't be much fun for him.But he's the kind of person that I look up to. Because he seems so strong. I know that he's probably got his own problems. Everybody does. But it seems like he's a representative of something that I feel like I'm never really going to be that good at, which is physical strength and endurance.I've often wondered where that damage came from.Because if I look at my genealogical history, I've come from very strong people.One of my grandpa's lived to 92. And the only reason why he died is because he let his prostate cancer go untreated.Another one of my grandpa's was 87 or 88, when he died, and he basically died of a broken heart because he was so he was a mountain of a man with a laugh like a volcano.And he was a logger. And my other grandfather was a logger as well. But then he was a farmer. And then he was an insurance salesman. At the end of his life, like probably for the last 30 or 40 years or so. They're really strong old style dudes. They knew how to do everything you needed to do know how to do on a farm.And then my dad ran many marathons. He grew up on a farm. He knows how to do everything that you need to do on a farm.And my mom grew up on a ranch, raising horses. She knew most of what you needed to know how to do on a ranch. She also ran marathons. So I always have found it strange that I have not been as strong as my parents or grandparents.And I've always been curious about that.And I think that, for me, the things that I've struggled with in life have been emotional damage.Growing up, my parents got divorced, which I had no idea—I didn't understand what was going on when I was seven, eight years old when that happened. But I can see that that influenced my growth or inhibited my growth in a certain way now.And it made me addicted to things to try and escape that pain.And I think it influenced me to this day. And I think that it gave me an anxiety disorder that I've more or less taken care of—through extreme amounts of effort, and care for myself.But it's just so interesting to see how generations of people can be changed by emotional trauma.What that can do to someone for their entire life at least, that's what I think my legacy is.So to stop these endless digressions, I'll just read this poem now and call it done.The title of it is Swallows from Capistrano, and it's about my grandpa on my mom's side.Swallows from CapistranoHe had bright blue eyes, with an old-timers folded lidsthe blue that looks like cracks in a glacier, they glowedout from his stony countenance, his bear-like laughfilled the low room where he satwith his wisdom about everything.The scent of pine smoke hung even in summeraround the eaves, the fresh pine needle scent wafted toodown the hill from the hot sun, and he watchedin the spring the swallows who came backfrom the eaves of the mission in far south and hotCapistrano. My mom says she has a strange mind like him, seeselements as part of people, the rising of fire into smokeas a type of person, or a water-earth type, my grandpa,he must have been a volcano under a glacier—those blue eyesand his rumbling chest, pouring forth wisdom and lovefor sitting in the sun. Once everyone could handle him no morehe lit fires with diesel fuel and wet wood through the cold winterand in springhe sat and watched the swallows.So I guess my hope is that by noticing what has hurt me, in life, I'll be able to heal certain things.But I also don't think life is just about focusing on what's wrong.I think it's about listening to what feels good to me.And one of those things is being outside.I think that's why my mind went there, when I was laying on that table, in the Planned Parenthood clinic in Burlington.It's because that's my place of refuge.And I'm lucky to have traveled to the places that are so unimaginably beautiful that they don't seem like they exist on the same earth as everywhere else.And I'm also lucky to be able to find those places seemingly anywhere. It's more about how you inhabit them, maybe, then the places themselves.My grandpa, both of them were tough guys.Somehow, even though they sustained a lot of damage, they were very physically strong, despite all that.I guess that kind of a damage that they got went deeper, and it changed their ability to listen.Fortunately, I've become a pretty good listener. So now, through my running habit, I'll hopefully be able to become stronger physically too.And heal all these things that have transpired.Thanks for listening. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.walkaround.run

I had a fascinating discussion about Robert Moses and The Power Broker with Professor Kenneth T. Jackson.He's the pre-eminent historian on NYC and author of Robert Moses and The Modern City: The Transformation of New York.He answers:* Why are we so much worse at building things today?* Would NYC be like Detroit without the master builder?* Does it take a tyrant to stop NIMBY?Watch on YouTube. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here.Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes.If you end up enjoying this episode, I would be super grateful if you share it, post it on Twitter, send it to your friends & group chats, and throw it up wherever else people might find it. Can't exaggerate how much it helps a small podcast like mine.A huge thanks to Graham Bessellieu for editing this podcast.Timestamps(0:00:00) Preview + Intro(0:11:13) How Moses Gained Power(0:18:22) Moses Saved NYC?(0:27:31) Moses the Startup Founder?(0:32:34) The Case Against Moses Highways(0:51:24) NIMBYism(1:03:44) Is Progress Cyclical(1:12:36) Friendship with Caro(1:20:41) Moses the Longtermist?.TranscriptThis transcript was produced by a program I wrote. If you consume my podcast via transcripts, let me know in the comments if this transcript was (or wasn't) an adequate substitute for the human edited transcripts in previous episodes.0:00:00 Preview + IntroKenneth Jackson 0:00:00Robert Moses represented a past, you know, a time when we wanted to build bridges and super highways and things that pretty much has gone on. We're not building super highways now. We're not building vast bridges like Moses built all the time. Had Robert Moses not lived, not done what he did, New York would have followed the trail of maybe Detroit. Essentially all the big roads, all the bridges, all the parks, the United Nations, Lincoln Center, the World's Fairs of 1939 and 1964, and hundreds of other things he built. And I think it was the best book I ever read. In broad strokes, it's correct. Robert Moses had more power than any urban figure in American history. He built incredible monuments. He was ruthless and arrogant and honest. Okay.Dwarkesh Patel 0:00:54I am really, really excited about this one. Today I have the pleasure of speaking with Professor Kenneth T. Jackson about the life and legacy of Robert Moses. Professor Jackson is the preeminent historian on New York City. He was the director of the Herbert H. Lehman Center for American History and the Jock Barzun Professor Emeritus of History at Columbia University, where he has also shared the Department of History. And we were discussing Robert Moses. Professor Jackson is the author and editor of Robert Moses and the Modern City, the Transformation of New York. Professor Jackson, welcome to the podcast.Kenneth Jackson 0:01:37Well, thank you for having me. Okay.Dwarkesh Patel 0:01:40So many people will have heard of Robert Moses and be vaguely aware of him through the popular biography of him by Robert Caro, the power broker. But most people will not be aware of the extent of his influence on New York City. Can you give a kind of a summary of the things he was able to get built in New York City?Kenneth Jackson 0:02:03One of the best comparisons I can think of is that our Caro himself, when he compared him to Christopher Wren in London, he said, if you would see his monument, look around. It's almost more easier to talk about what Moses didn't do than what he did do. If you all the roads, essentially all the big roads, all the bridges, all the parks, the United Nations, Lincoln Center, the World's Fairs of 1939 and 1964, and hundreds of other things he built. I mean, he didn't actually do it with his own two hands, but he was in charge. He got it done. And Robert Caro wrote a really great book. I think the book was flawed because I think Caro only looked at Moses's own documents and Moses had a very narrow view of himself. I mean, he thought he was a great man, but I mean, he didn't pay any attention to what was going on in LA very much, for example. But clearly, by any standard, he's the greatest builder in American history. There's nobody really in second place. And not only did he build and spend this vast amount of money, he was in power for a long time, really a half century more or less. And he had a singular focus. He was married, but his personal life was not important to him. He did it without scandal, really, even Caro admits that he really died with less than he started with. So I mean, he wanted power, and boy, did he have power. He technically was subservient to governors and mayors, but since he built so much and since he had multiple jobs, that was part of his secret. He had as many as six, eight, ten different things at once. If the mayor fired him or got rid of him, he had all these different ways, which he was in charge of that the mayor couldn't. So you people were afraid of him, and they also respected him. He was very smart, and he worked for a dollar a year. So what are you going to get him for? As Caro says, nobody is ready to be compared with Robert Moses. In fact, compares him with an act of nature. In other words, the person you can compare him with is God. That's the person. He put the rivers in. He put the hills in. He put the island in. Compare that to Moses, what Moses did. No other person could compare to that. That's a little bit of exaggeration, but when you really think about Robert Moses and you read the Power Broker, you are stunned by the scope of his achievement. Just stunned. And even beyond New York, when we think of the interstate highway system, which really starts in 1954, 55, 56, and which is 40-something thousand miles of interstate highways, those were built by Moses' men, people who had in their young life had worked with the parkways and expressways in and around New York City. So they were ready to go. So Moses and Moses also worked outside New York City, mostly inside New York City, but he achieved so much. So probably you need to understand it's not easy to get things done in New York. It's very, very dense, much twice as dense as any place in the United States and full of neighborhoods that feel like little cities and are little cities and that don't want change even today. A place like Austin, for example, is heavy into development, not New York. You want to build a tall building in New York, you got to fight for it. And the fact that he did so much in the face of opposition speaks a lot to his methods and the way he… How did Moses do what he did? That is a huge question because it isn't happening anymore, certainly not in New YorkDwarkesh Patel 0:06:22City. Yeah. And that's really why I actually wanted to talk to you and talk about this book because the Power Broker was released in 1974 and at the time New York was not doing well, which is to put it mildly. But today the crisis we face is one where we haven't built significant public works in many American cities for decades. And so it's interesting to look back on a time when we could actually get a lot of public works built very quickly and very efficiently and see if maybe we got our characterization of the people at the time wrong. And that's where your 2007 book comes in. So I'm curious, how was the book received 50 years after, or I guess 40 years after the Power Broker was released? What was the reception like? How does the intellectual climate around these issues change in that time?Kenneth Jackson 0:07:18The Power Broker is a stunning achievement, but you're right. The Power Broker colon Robert Moses and the fall of New York. He's thinking that in the 1970s, which is the… In New York's 400-year history, we think of the 1970s as being the bottom. City was bankrupt, crime was going up, corruption was all around. Nothing was working very well. My argument in the subtitle of the 2007 book or that article is Robert Moses and the rise of New York. Arguing that had Robert Moses not lived, not done what he did, New York would have followed the trail of maybe Detroit and St. Louis and Cincinnati and Pittsburgh and most cities in the Northeast and Midwest, which really declined. New York City really hasn't declined. It's got more people now than it ever did. It's still a number one city in the world, really, by most of our standards. It's the global leader, maybe along with London. At one point in the 1980s, we thought it might be Tokyo, which is the largest city in the world, but it's no longer considered competitive with New York. I say London too because New York and London are kind of alone at the top. I think Robert Moses' public works, activities, I just don't know that you could have a New York City and not have expressways. I don't like the Cross Bronx expressway either and don't want to drive on it. How can you have a world in which you can't go from Boston to San Francisco? You had to have it. You have to have some highways and Carroll had it exactly wrong. He talked about Moses and the decline of public transit in New York. Actually what you need to explain in New York is why public transit survived in New York, wherein most other American cities, the only people who use public transit are the losers. Oh, the disabled, the poor and stuff like that. In New York City, rich people ride the subway. It's simply the most efficient way to get around and the quickest. That question needs, some of the things need to be turned on its head. How did he get it done? How did he do it without scandal? I mean, when you think about how the world is in our time, when everything has either a financial scandal or a sexual scandal attached to it, Moses didn't have scandals. He built the White Stone Bridge, for example, which is a gigantic bridge connecting the Bronx to Queens. It's beautiful. It was finished in the late 1930s on time and under budget. Actually a little earlier. There's no such thing as that now. You're going to do a big public works project and you're going to do it on time. And also he did it well. Jones Beach, for example, for generations has been considered one of the great public facilities on earth. It's gigantic. And he created it. You know, I know people will say it's just sand and water. No, no, it's a little more complicated than that. So everything he did was complicated. I mean, I think Robert Caro deserves a lot of credit for doing research on Moses, his childhood, his growing up, his assertion that he's the most important person ever to live in and around New York. And just think of Franklin Roosevelt and all the people who lived in and around New York. And Moses is in a category by himself, even though most Americans have never heard of Robert Moses. So his fame is still not, that book made him famous. And I think his legacy will continue to evolve and I think slightly improve as Americans realize that it's so hard, it's hard to build public works, especially in dense urban environments. And he did it.0:11:13 How Moses Gained PowerDwarkesh Patel 0:11:33Yeah. There's so much to talk about there. But like one of the interesting things from the Power Broker is Caro is trying to explain why governors and mayors who were hesitant about the power that Moses was gaining continued to give him more power. And there's a section where he's talking about how FDR would keep giving him more positions and responsibilities, even though FDR and Moses famously had a huge enmity. And he says no governor could look at the difficulty of getting things built in New York and not admire and respect Moses' ability to do things, as he said, efficiently, on time, under budget, and not need him, essentially. But speaking of scandal, you talked about how he didn't take salary for his 12 concurrent government roles that he was on. But there's a very arresting anecdote in the Power Broker where I think he's 71 and his daughter gets cancer. And for the first time, I think he had to accept, maybe I'm getting the details wrong, but he had to accept salary for working on the World's Fair because he didn't have enough. He was the most powerful person in New York, and he didn't have enough money to pay for his daughter's cancer. And even Caro himself says that a lot of the scandals that came later in his life, they were just kind of trivial stuff, like an acre of Central Park or the Shakespeare in the park. Yeah, it wasn't... The things that actually took him down were just trivial scandals.Kenneth Jackson 0:13:07Well, in fact, when he finally was taken down, it took the efforts of a person who was almost considered the second most powerful person in the United States, David Rockefeller, and the governor of New York, both of whom were brothers, and they still had a lot of Moses to make him kind of get out of power in 1968. But it was time. And he exercised power into his 70s and 80s, and most of it was good. I mean, the bridges are remarkable. The bridges are gorgeous, mostly. They're incredible. The Throgs Neck Bridge, the Verrazano Narrows Bridge, the Triborough Bridge, they're really works of art. And he liked to build things you could see. And I think the fact that he didn't take money was important to it. You know, he was not poor. I wouldn't say he's not wealthy in New York terms, but he was not a poor person. He went to Yale as a Jewish person, and let's say in the early 20th century, that's fairly unusual and he lived well. So we can't say he's poor, but I think that Carol was right in saying that what Moses was after in the end was not sex and not power, and not sex and not money. Power. He wanted power. And boy, did he get it.Dwarkesh Patel 0:14:37Well, there's a good review of the book from, I'm not sure if I remember the last name, but it was Philip Lopgate or something. Low paid, I think.Kenneth Jackson 0:14:45Okay.Dwarkesh Patel 0:14:46And he made a good point, which was that the connotation of the word power is very negative, but it's kind of a modern thing really to have this sort of attitude towards power that like somebody who's just seeking it must necessarily have suspicious motivations. If Moses believed, and in fact, he was probably right in believing that he was just much more effective at building public works for the people that live in New York, was it irrational of him or was it selfish of him to just desire to work 14 hour days for 40 years on end in order to accumulate the power by which he could build more public works? So there's a way of looking at it where this pursuit of power is not itself troubling.Kenneth Jackson 0:15:36Well, first of all, I just need to make a point that it's not just New York City. I mean, Jones Beach is on Long Island. A lot of those highways, the Northern State Parkway, the Southern State Parkway are built outside the city and also big projects, the Power Authority in upstate New York. He also was consultant around the world in cities and transportation. So his influence was really felt far beyond New York City. And of course, New York City is so big and so important. I think also that we might want to think about, at least I think so, what do I say, the counterfactual argument. Can you imagine? I can remember when I was in the Air Force, we lived next door to a couple from New York City. We didn't know New York City at the time. And I can't remember whether she or he was from the Bronx or Brooklyn, but they had they made us understand how incredibly much he must have loved her to go to Brooklyn or the Bronx to see her and pick her up for days and stuff like this. You couldn't get there. I mean, it would take you three hours to go from the Rockaways in Brooklyn to somewhere in the Northern Bronx. But the roads that Moses built, you know, I know at rush hour they're jammed, but you know, right this minute on a Sunday, you can whiz around New York City on these expressways that Moses built. It's hard to imagine New York without. The only thing Moses didn't do was the subway, and many people have criticized him because the subways were deteriorated between the time they were built in the early part of the 20th century in 1974 when Carol wrote to Power Broker. But so had public transit systems all over the United States. And the public transit system in New York is now better than it was 50 years ago. So that trajectory has changed. And all these other cities, you know, Pittsburgh used to have 600,000 people. Now it has 300,000. Cleveland used to have 900,000 and something. Now it's below five. Detroit used to have two million. Now it's 600 something thousand. St. Louis used to have 850,000. Now it's three hundreds. I mean, the steep drop in all these other cities in the Midwest and Northeast, even Washington and even Boston and Philadelphia, they all declined except New York City, which even though it was way bigger than any of them in 1950 is bigger now than it was then. More people crammed into this small space. And Moses had something to do with that.0:18:22 Would NYC Have Fallen Without Moses?Dwarkesh Patel 0:18:22Yeah, yeah, yeah. You write in the book and I apologize for quoting you back to yourself, but you write, had the city not undertaken a massive program of public works between 1924 and 1970, had it not built the arterial highway system and had it not relocated 200,000 people from old law tenements to new public housing projects, New York would not have been able to claim in the 1990s that it was a capital of the 20th century. I would like to make this connection more explicit. So what is the reason for thinking that if New York hadn't done urban renewal and hadn't built the more than 600 miles of highways that Moses built there, that New York would have declined like these other cities in the Northeast and the Midwest?Kenneth Jackson 0:19:05Well, I mean, you could argue, first of all, and friends of mine have argued this, that New York is not like other cities. It's a world city and has been and what happens to the rest of the United States is, I accept a little bit of that, but not all of it. You say, well, New York is just New York. And so whatever happens here is not necessarily because of Moses or different from Detroit, but I think it's important to realize its history has been different from other American cities. Most American cities, especially the older cities, have been in relative decline for 75 years. And in some ways New York has too. And it was its relative dominance of the United States is less now than because there's been a shift south and west in the United States. But the prosperity of New York, the desire of people to live in it, and after all, one of its problems is it's so expensive. Well, one reason it's expensive is people want to live there. If they didn't want to live there, it would be like Detroit. It'd be practically free. You know what I mean? So there are answers to these issues. But Moses' ways, I think, were interesting. First of all, he didn't worry about legalities. He would start an expressway through somebody's property and dare a judge to tell him to stop after the construction had already started. And most of the time, Moses, he was kind of like Hitler. It was just, I don't mean to say he was like Hitler. What I mean is, but you have such confidence. You just do things and dare other people to change it. You know what I mean? I'm going to do it. And most people don't have that. I think there's a little bit of that in Trump, but not as much. I mean, I don't think he has nearly the genius or brains of Moses. But there's something to self-confidence. There's something to having a broad vision. Moses liked cities, but he didn't like neighborhoods or people. In other words, I don't think he loved New York City. Here's the person who is more involved. He really thought everybody should live in suburbs and drive cars. And that was the world of the future. And he was going to make that possible. And he thought all those old law tenements in New York, which is really anything built before 1901, were slums. And they didn't have hot and cold water. They often didn't have bathrooms. He thought they should be destroyed. And his vision was public housing, high-rise public housing, was an improvement. Now I think around the United States, we don't think these high-rise public housing projects are so wonderful. But he thought he was doing the right thing. And he was so arrogant, he didn't listen to people like Jane Jacobs, who fought him and said, you're saying Greenwich Village is a slum? Are you kidding me? I mean, he thought it was a slum. Go to Greenwich Village today. Try to buy anything for under a million dollars. I mean, it doesn't exist. You know what I mean? I mean, Greenwich Village, and he saw old things, old neighborhoods, walking, is hopelessly out of date. And he was wrong. He was wrong about a lot of his vision. And now we understand that. And all around the country, we're trying to revitalize downtowns and reduce our dependence on fossil fuels and gasoline and cars. But Moses didn't see the world that way. It's interesting. He never himself drove a car. Can you believe that the man who had more influence on the American car culture, probably even than Henry Ford, himself was always driven. He was chauffeured. In fact, he was so busy that Carol talks about him as having two limousines behind each other. And he would have a secretary in one, and he would be dealing with business and writing letters and things like this. And then she would have all she could do. They would pull off to the side of the road. She would get out of his car. The car that was following would discharge the secretary in that car. They would switch places. And the fresh secretary would get in the backseat, Moses, and they would continue to work. And the first secretary would go to type up whatever she had to do. He worked all the time. He really didn't have much of a private life. There are not many people like Robert Moses. There are people like Robert Moses, but not so many, and he achieved his ideal. I think that there are so many ironies there. Not only did he not drive himself, he didn't appreciate so much the density of New York, which many people now love, and it's getting more dense. They're building tall buildings everywhere. And he didn't really appreciate the diversity, the toleration. He didn't care about that, but it worked. And I just think we have to appreciate the fact that he did what was impossible, really impossible, and nobody else could have done what he did. And if we hadn't done it then, he sure as heck wouldn't be able to do it in the 21st century, when people are even more litigious. You try to change the color of a door in New York City, and there'll be—you try to do something positive, like build a free swimming pool, fix up an old armory and turn it into a public—there'll be people who'll fight you. I'm not kidding this. And Moses didn't care. He says, I'm going to do this. When he built the Cross Bronx Expressway, which in some ways is—it was horrible what he did to these people, but again, Carol mischaracterizes what happened. But it's a dense working class—let's call it Jewish neighborhood—in the early 1950s. And Roses decides we need an interstate highway or a big highway going right through it. Well, he sent masses of people letters that said, get out in 90 days. He didn't mean 91 days. He meant—he didn't mean let's argue about it for four years. Let's go to legit—Moses meant the bulldozers will be bulldozing. And that kind of attitude, we just don't have anymore. And it's kind of funny now to think back on it, but it wasn't funny to the people who got evicted. But again, as I say, it's hard to imagine a New York City without the Cross Bronx Expressway. They tore down five blocks of dense buildings, tore them down, and built this road right through it. You live—and they didn't worry about where they were going to rehouse them. I mean, they did, but it didn't work. And now it's so busy, it's crowded all the time. So what does this prove? That we need more roads? But you can't have more roads in New York because if you build more roads, what are you going to do with the cars? Right now, the problem is there are so many cars in the city, there's nothing to do. It's easy to get around in New York, but what are you going to do with the car? You know, the car culture has the seeds of its own destruction. You know, cars just parking them or putting them in a garage is a problem. And Moses didn't foresee those. He foreseed you're all going to live in the Long Island suburbs or Westchester suburbs or New Jersey suburbs. Park your car in your house and come in the city to work. Now, the city is becoming a place to live more than a place to work. So what they're doing in New York as fast as they can is converting office buildings into residential units. He would never have seen that, that people would want to live in the city, had options that they would reject a single family house and choose high rise and choose the convenience of going outside and walking to a delicatessen over the road, driving to a grocery store. It's a world he never saw.0:27:31 Moses the Startup Founder?Dwarkesh Patel 0:27:31Yeah, yeah. Yeah. Like the thing you pointed out earlier about him having the two limousines and then the enormous work ethic and then the 90 day eviction. I mean, I'm a programmer and I can recognize this trope immediately. Right. Robert Moses was a startup founder, but in government, you know, that attitude is like, yeah, it's like Silicon Valley. That's like we all recognize that.Kenneth Jackson 0:27:54And I think we should we should we should go back to what you said earlier about why was it that governors or mayors couldn't tell him what to do? Because there are many scenes in the power broker where he will go to the mayor who wants to do something else. And Moses would, damn it. He'd say, damn it, throw his pages on the desk and say, sign this. This is my resignation. You know, OK. And I'm out of here because the mayors and governors love to open bridges and highways and and do it efficiently and beautifully. And Moses could do that. Moses could deliver. And the workers loved him because he paid union wages, good wages to his workers. And he got things done and and things like more than 700 playgrounds. And it wasn't just grand things. And even though people criticize the 1964 World's Fair as a failure and financially it was a failure, but still tens of millions of people went there and had a good time. You know, I mean, even some of the things were supposedly were failures. Failures going to home, according to the investment banker, maybe, but not to the people who went there.Dwarkesh Patel 0:29:20Right. Yeah. And I mean, the point about the governors and mayors needing him, it was especially important to have somebody who could like work that fast. If you're going to get reelected in four years or two years, you need somebody who can get public works done faster than they're done today. Right. If you want to be there for the opening. Yeah, exactly.Kenneth Jackson 0:29:36And it's important to realize, to say that Moses did try public office once.Dwarkesh Patel 0:29:41Yeah.Kenneth Jackson 0:29:42And I think it's true that he lost by more than anybody in the history of New York. He was not, you know, he was not an effective public speaker. He was not soft and friendly and warm and cuddly. That's not Robert Moses. The voters rejected him. But the people who had power and also Wall Street, because you had to issue bonds. And one of the ways that Moses had power was he created this thing called the Traverse Bridge and Tunnel Authority to build the Traverse Bridge. Well, now, if in Portland, Oregon, you want to build a bridge or a road, you issue a couple hundred million dollars worth of bonds to the public and assign a value to it. Interest rate is paid off by the revenue that comes in from the bridge or the road or whatever it is. Normally, before, normally you would build a public works and pay for it itself on a user fees. And when the user fees paid it off, it ended. But what Moses, who was called the best bill drafter in Albany, which was a Moses term, he said he was somewhere down in paragraph 13, Section G, say, and the chairman can only be removed for cause. What that meant was when you buy a bond for the Traverse Bridge or something else, you're in a contract, supported by the Supreme Court. This is a financial deal you're making with somebody. And part of the contract was the chairman gets to stay unless he does something wrong. Well, Moses was careful not to do anything wrong. And it also would continue. You would get the bond for the Traverse Bridge, but rather than pay off the Traverse Bridge, he would build another project. It would give him the right to continually build this chain of events. And so he had this massive pot of money from all these initially nickels and dimes. Brazil made up a lot of money, the 30s and 40s and 50s and 60s, to spend more money and build more bridges and build more roads. And that's where he had his power. And the Wall Street, the big business loved him because they're issuing the bonds. The unions loved him because they're paying the investors. Now what Carroll says is that Moses allowed the investors an extra quarter percent, I think a quarter percent or half percent on bonds, but they all sold out. So everybody was happy. And was that crooked? It wasn't really illegal. But it's the way people do that today. If you're issuing a bond, you got to figure out what interest am I going to pay on this that will attract investors now.0:32:34 The Case Against Moses HighwaysDwarkesh Patel 0:32:34And the crucial thing about these tales of graft is that it never was about Moses trying to get rich. It was always him trying to push through a project. And obviously that can be disturbing, but it is a completely different category of thing, especially when you remember that this was like a corrupt time in New York history. It was like after Tammany Hall and so on. So it's a completely different from somebody using their projects to get themselves rich. But I do want to actually talk in more detail about the impact of these roads. So obviously we can't, the current system we have today where we just kind of treat cities as living museums with NIMBYism and historical preservation, that's not optimal. But there are examples, at least of Carroll's, about Moses just throwing out thousands of people carelessly, famously in that chapter on the one mile, how Moses could have diverted the cross Bronx expressway one mile and prevented thousands of people from getting needlessly evicted. So I'm just going to list off a few criticisms of his highway building and then you can respond to them in any order you want. So one of the main criticisms that Carroll makes is that Moses refused to add mass transit to his highways, which would have helped deal with the traffic problem and the car problem and all these other problems at a time when getting the right of way and doing the construction would have been much cheaper. Because of his dislike for mass transit, he just refused to do that. And also the prolific building of highways contributed to urban sprawl, it contributed to congestion, it contributed to neighborhoods getting torn apart if a highway would crossKenneth Jackson 0:34:18them.Dwarkesh Patel 0:34:19So a whole list of criticisms of these highways. I'll let you take it in any order you want.Kenneth Jackson 0:34:27Well first of all, Moses response was, I wasn't in charge of subways. So if you think the subways deteriorated or didn't build enough, find out who was in charge of them and blame that person. I was in charge of highways and I built those. So that's the first thing.Dwarkesh Patel 0:34:41But before you answer that, can I just ask, so on that particular point, it is true that he wasn't in charge of mass transit, but also he wasn't in charge of roads until he made himself responsible for roads, right? So if he chose to, he could have made himself responsible for mass transit and taken careKenneth Jackson 0:34:56of it. Maybe, although I think the other thing about it is putting Moses in a broader historical concept. He was swimming with the tide of history. In other words, history when he was building, was building Ford Motor Company and General Motors and Chrysler Corporation and building cars by the millions. I mean, the automobile industry in the United States was huge. People thought any kind of rail transit was obsolete and on the way out anyway. So let's just build roads. I mean, that's what the public wanted. He built what the public wanted. It's not what I was looking historically. I don't think we did the right thing, but we needed to join the 20th century. New York could have stayed as a quaint, I don't know, quaint is not the right word, but it's a distinctly different kind of place where everybody walks. I just don't think it would have been the same kind of city because there are people who are attached to their cars in New York. And so the sprawl in New York, which is enormous, nobody's saying it wasn't, spreads over 31 counties, an area about as large as the state of Connecticut, about as large as the Netherlands is metropolitan New York. But it's still relatively, I don't want to say compact, but everybody knows where the center is. It's not that anybody grows up in New York at 16 and thinks that the world is in some mall, you know, three miles away. They all know there is a center and that's where it is. It's called Manhattan. And that's New York and Moses didn't change that for all of his roads. There's still in New York a definite center, skyscrapers and everything in the middle. And it's true, public transit did decline. But you know those, and I like Chicago, by the way, and they have a rail transit from O'Hare down to Dan Ryan, not to Dan Ryan, but the JFK Expressway, I think. And it works sort of, but you got to walk a ways to get on. You got to walk blocks to get in the middle of the expressway and catch the train there. It's not like in New York where you just go down some steps. I mean, New York subway is much bigger than Chicago and more widely used and more. And the key thing about New York, and so I think what Carol was trying to explain and your question suggests this, is was Moses responsible for the decline of public transit? Well, he was building cars and roads and bridges. So in that sense, a little bit, yes. But if you look at New York compared to the rest of the United States, it used to be that maybe 20 percent of all the transit riders in the United States were in the New York area. Now it's 40 percent. So if you're looking at the United States, what you have to explain is why is New York different from the rest of the United States? Why is it that when I was chairman or president of the New York Historical Society, we had rich trustees, and I would tell them, well, I got here on a subway or something. They would think, I would say, how do you think I got here? Do you know what I mean? I mean, these are people who are close to billionaires and they're saying they used the subway. If you're in lower Manhattan and you're trying to get to Midtown and it's raining, it's five o'clock, you've got to be a fool to try to get in your own limousine. It isn't going to get you there very quickly. A subway will. So there are reasons for it. And I think Moses didn't destroy public transit. He didn't help it. But his argument was he did. And that's an important distinction, I think. But he was swimming with history. He built what the public wanted. I think if he had built public transit, he would have found it tougher to build. Just for example, Cincinnati built a subway system, a tunnel all through the city. It never has opened. They built it. You can still see the holes in the ground where it's supposed to come out. By the time they built it, people weren't riding trains anymore. And so it's there now and they don't know what to do with it. And that's 80 years ago. So it's a very complicated—I don't mean to make these issues. They're much more complex than I'm speaking of. And I just think it's unfair to blame Moses for the problems of the city. I think he did as much as anybody to try to bring the city into the 21st century, which he didn't live to. But you've got to adopt. You've got to have a hybrid model in the world now. And I think the model that America needs to follow is a model where we reduce our dependence on the cars and somehow ride buses more or use the internet more or whatever it is, but stop using so much fossil fuels so that we destroy our environment. And New York, by far, is the most energy efficient place in the United States. Mainly because you live in tall buildings, you have hot floors. It doesn't really cost much to heat places because you're heating the floor below you and above you. And you don't have outside walls. And you walk. New Yorkers are thinner. Many more people take buses and subways in New York than anywhere else in the United States, not just in absolute terms, in relative terms. So they're helping. It's probably a healthier lifestyle to walk around. And I think we're rediscovering it. For example, if you come to New York between Thanksgiving and Christmas, there's so many tourists in the city. I'm not making this up. That there is gridlock on the sidewalks around. The police have to direct the traffic. And in part, it's because a Detroit grandmother wants to bring her granddaughter to New York to see what Hudson's, which is a great department store in Detroit or in any city. We could be rich as in Atlanta, Fox, G Fox and Hartford. Every city had these giant department and windows where the Santa Claus is and stuff like this. You can still go to New York and see that. You can say, Jane, this is the way it used to be in Detroit. People ringing the bells and looking at the store windows and things like that. A mall can't recapture that. It just can't. You try, but it's not the same thing. And so I think that in a way, Moses didn't not only did he not destroy New York. I think he gets a little bit of credit for saving it because it might have been on the way to Detroit. Again, I'm not saying that it would have been Detroit because Detroit's almost empty. But Baltimore wasn't just Baltimore, it's Cleveland. It's every place. There's nobody there anymore. And even in New York, the department stores have mostly closed, not all of them. And so it's not the same as it was 80 years ago, but it's closer to it than anywhere else.Dwarkesh Patel 0:42:16OK, so yes, I'm actually very curious to get your opinion on the following question. Given the fact that you are an expert on New York history and you know, you've written the encyclopedia, literally written the encyclopedia on New York City.Kenneth Jackson 0:42:30800 people wrote the encyclopedia. I just took all the credit for it.Dwarkesh Patel 0:42:34I was the editor in chief. So I'm actually curious, is Caro actually right that you talked about the importance just earlier about counterfactual history. So I'm curious if Caro is actually right about the claim that the neighborhoods through which Moses built his highways were destroyed in a way that neighborhoods which were in touch by the highways weren't. Sorry for the confusing phrasing there. But basically, was there like a looking back on all these neighborhoods? Is there a clear counterfactual negative impact on the neighborhoods in which Moses built his highways and bridges and so on?Kenneth Jackson 0:43:10Well, Moses, I mean, Caro makes that argument mostly about East Tremont and places like that in the Bronx where the Cross Bronx Expressway passed through. And he says this perfectly wonderful Jewish neighborhood that was not racially prejudiced and everybody was happy and not leaving was destroyed by Moses. Well, first of all, as a historian of New York City, or for that matter, any city, if a student comes to you and says, that's what I found out, you said, well, you know, that runs counter to the experience of every city. So let's do a little more work on that. Well, first of all, if you look at the census tracts or the residential security maps of S.H.A. You know, it's not true. First of all, the Jews were leaving and had nothing to do with the thing. They didn't love blacks. And also, if you look at other Jewish, and the Bronx was called the Jewish borough at the time, those neighborhoods that weren't on the Cross Bronx Expressway all emptied out mostly. So the Bronx itself was a part of New York City that followed the pattern of Detroit and Baltimore and Cleveland. Bronx is now coming back, but it's a different place. So I think it's, well, I've said this in public and I'll pay you for this. Carol wouldn't know those neighborhoods if he landed there by parachute. They're much better than he ever said they were. You know, he acted like if you went outside near the Bronx County Courthouse, you needed a wagon train to go. I mean, I've taken my students there dozens of times and shown them the people, the old ladies eating on the benches and stuff like this. Nobody's mugging them. You know, he just has an outsider's view. He didn't know the places he was writing about. But I think Carol was right about some things. Moses was personally a jerk. You can make it stronger than that, but I mean, he was not your friendly grandfather. He was arrogant. He was self-centered. He thought he knew the truth and you don't. He was vindictive, ruthless, but some of those were good. You know, now his strategies, his strategies in some were good. He made people building a beach or a building feel like you're building a cathedral. You're building something great and I'm going to pay you for it and let's make it good. Let's make it as best as we can. That itself is a real trick. How do you get people to think of their jobs as more than a job, as something else? Even a beach or a wall or something like that to say it's good. He also paid them, so that's important that he does that and he's making improvements. He said he was improving things for the people. I don't know if you want to talk about Jane Jacobs, who was his nemesis. I tend to vote with Jane Jacobs. Jane Jacobs and I agree on a lot of things or did before she died a few years ago. Jane Jacobs saw the city as intricate stores and people living and walking and knowing each other and eyes on the street and all these kinds of things. Moses didn't see that at all. He saw the city as a traffic problem. How do we tear this down and build something big and get people the hell out of here? That was a mistake. Moses made mistakes. What Moses was doing was what everybody in the United States was doing, just not as big and not as ruthless and not as quick. It was not like Moses built a different kind of world that exists in Kansas City. That's exactly what they did in Kansas City or every other city. Blow the damn roads to the black neighborhoods, build the expressway interchanges, my hometown of Memphis crisscrossed with big streets, those neighborhoods gone. They're even more extensive in places like Memphis and Kansas City and New Orleans than they are in New York because New York builds relatively fewer of them. Still huge what he built. You would not know from the power broker that Los Angeles exists. Actually Los Angeles was building freeways too. Or he says that New York had more federal money. Then he said, well, not true. I've had students work on Chicago and Chicago is getting more money per person than New York for some of these projects. Some of the claims, no doubt he got those from Moses' own records. If you're going to write a book like this, you got to know what's going on other places. Anyway, let's go back to your questions.Dwarkesh Patel 0:48:10No, no. That was one of the things I was actually going to ask you about, so I was glad to get your opinion on that. You know, actually, I've been preparing for this interview and trying to learn more about the impact of these different projects. I was trying to find the economic literature on the value of these highways. There was a National Bureau of Economic Research paper by Morgan Foy, or at least a digest by Morgan Foy, where he's talking about the economic gains from highways. He says, the gains tend to be largest in areas where roads connect large economic hubs where few alternative routes exist. He goes on to say, two segments near New York City have welfare benefits exceeding $500 million a year. Expanding the Long Island Expressway had an estimated economic value of $719 million, which I think was Moses. He says, of the top 10 segments with the highest rate of return, seven are in New York City area. It turns out that seven of the top 10 most valuable highway segments in America are in New York. Reading that, it makes me suspect that there must have been... The way Cairo paints Moses' planning process, it's just very impulsive and feelings-based and almost in some cases, out of malice towards poor people. Given that a century later, it seems that many of the most valuable tracks of highways were planned and built exactly how Moses envisioned, it makes you think that there was some sort of actual intelligent deliberation and thought that was put into where they were placed.Kenneth Jackson 0:50:32I think that's true. I'm not saying that the automobile didn't have an economic impact. That's what Moses was building for. He would probably endorse that idea. I think that what we're looking at now in the 21st century is the high value put on places that Moses literally thought were something. He was going to run an expressway from Brooklyn through lower Manhattan to New Jersey and knock down all these buildings in Greenwich Village that people love now. Love. Even movie stars, people crowd into those neighborhoods to live and that he saw it as a slum. Well, Moses was simply wrong and Cairo puts him to task for that. I think that's true.0:51:24 The Rise of NIMBYismDwarkesh Patel 0:51:24Okay. Professor Jackson, now I want to discuss how the process of city planning and building projects has changed since Moses' time. We spent some good amount of time actually discussing what it was like, what Moses actually did in his time. Last year, I believe, you wrote an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal talking about how the 27-story building in Manhattan was put in limbo because the parking lot, which we would replace, was part of a historic district. What is it like to actually build a skyscraper or a highway or a bridge or anything of that sort in today's New York City?Kenneth Jackson 0:52:06Well, I do think in the larger context, it's probably fair to say it's tougher to build in New York City than any other city. I mean, yeah, a little precious suburb, you may not deploy a skyscraper, but I mean, as far as the city is concerned, there'll be more opposition in New York than anywhere else.It's more dense, so just to unload and load stuff to build a building, how do you do that? You know, trucks have to park on the street. Everything is more complicated and thus more expensive. I think a major difference between Robert Moses' time and our own, in Robert Moses' time, historic preservation was as yet little known and little understood and little supported. And the view generally was building is good, roads are good, houses are good, and they're all on the way to a more modern and better world. We don't have the same kind of faith in the future that they did. We kind of like it like it is. Let's just sit on it. So I think we should say that Moses had an easier time of it than he would have had he lived today. It still wasn't an easy time, but easier than today. Yeah.Dwarkesh Patel 0:53:40Well, actually, can you talk more about what that change in, I guess, philosophy has been since then? I feel like that's been one of the themes of this podcast, to see how our cultural attitude towards progress and technology have changed.Kenneth Jackson 0:53:54Well, I think one reason why the power broker, Robert Carroll's famous book, received such popular acclaim is it fits in with book readers' opinions today, which is old is better. I mean, also, you got to think about New York City. If you say it's a pre-war apartment, you mean it's a better apartment. The walls are solid plaster, not fiber or board and stuff like that. So old has a reverence in New York that doesn't have in Japan. In Japan, they tear down houses every 15 years. So it's a whole different thing. We tend to, in this new country, new culture, we tend to value oldness in some places, especially in a place that's old like New York City. I mean, most Americans don't realize that New York is not only the most dense American city and the largest, but also really the oldest. I mean, I know there's St. Augustine, but that's taking the concept of what's a city to a pretty extreme things. And then there's Jamestown and Virginia, but there's nobody there, literally nobody there. And then where the pilgrims landed in Massachusetts, Plymouth plantation, that's totally rebuilt as a kind of a theme park. So for a place that's a city, it's Santa Fe a little bit in New Mexico, but it was a wide place on the road until after World War II. So the places that would be also, if you think cities, New York is really old and it's never valued history, but the historic preservation movement here is very strong.Dwarkesh Patel 0:55:33What is the reason for its resurgence? Is it just that, because I mean, it's had a big impact on many cities, right? Like I'm in San Francisco right now, and obviously like you can't tear down one of these Victorian houses to build the housing that like the city massively needs. Why have we like gained a reverence for anything that was built before like 80 years?Kenneth Jackson 0:55:56Because just think of the two most expensive places in the United States that could change a little bit from year to year, but usually San Francisco and New York. And really if you want to make it more affordable, if you want to drop the price of popsicles on your block, sell more popsicles. Have more people selling popsicles and the price will fall. But somehow they say they're going to build luxury housing when actually if you build any housing, it'll put downward pressure on prices, even at super luxury. But anyway, most Americans don't understand that. So they oppose change and especially so in New York and San Francisco on the basis that change means gentrification. And of course there has been a lot of gentrification. In World War II or right after, San Francisco was a working class city. It really was. And huge numbers of short and longshoremen live there. Now San Francisco has become the headquarters really in Silicon Valley, but a headquarters city is a tech revolution and it's become very expensive and very homeless. It's very complex. Not easy to understand even if you're in the middle of it.Dwarkesh Patel 0:57:08Yeah. Yeah. So if we could get a Robert Moses back again today, what major mega project do you think New York needs today that a Moses like figure could build?Kenneth Jackson 0:57:22Well if you think really broadly and you take climate change seriously, as I think most people do, probably to build some sort of infrastructure to prevent rising water from sinking the city, it's doable. You'd have to, like New Orleans, in order to save New Orleans you had to flood Mississippi and some other places. So usually there is a downside somewhere, but you could, that would be a huge project to maybe build a bridge, not a bridge, a land bridge from Brooklyn to Manhattan to prevent water coming in from the ocean because New York is on the ocean. And to think of something like that's really big. Some of the other big infrastructure projects, like they're talking about another tunnel under the river, Hudson River from New Jersey to New York, the problem with that is there are already too many cars in Manhattan. Anything that makes it easier to bring cars into Manhattan because if you've not been to New York you don't really understand this, but there's no place for anything. And if you bring more cars in, what are you going to do with them? If you build parking garages for all the cars that could come into the city, then you'd be building over the whole city. There'd be no reason to come here because it would all be parking garages or parking lots. So New York City simply won't work if you reduce the density or you get rid of underground transportation because it's all about people moving around underneath the streets and not taking up space as they do it. So it won't work. And of course, it's not the only city. Tokyo wouldn't work either or lots of cities in the world won't work increasingly without not just public transportation but underground public transportation where you can get it out of the way of traffic and stuff like that. Moses probably could have done that. He wouldn't have loved it as much as he loved bridges because he wanted you to see what he built. And there was an argument in the power broker, but he didn't really want the Brooklyn battle very tunnel built because he wanted to build a bridge that everybody could see. So he may not have done it with such enthusiasm. I actually believe that Moses was first and foremost a builder. He really wanted to build things, change things. If you said, we'll pay you to build tunnels, I think he would have built tunnels. Who knows? He never was offered that. That wasn't the time in which he lived. Yeah. Okay.Dwarkesh Patel 1:00:04And I'm curious if you think that today to get rid of, I guess the red tape and then the NIMBYism, would it just be enough for one man to accumulate as much influence as Moses had and then to push through some things or does that need to be some sort of systemic reform? Because when Moses took power, of course there was ours also that Tammany Hall machine that he had to run through, right? Is that just what's needed today to get through the bureaucracy or is something more needed?Kenneth Jackson 1:00:31Well, I don't think Robert Moses with all of his talents and personality, I don't think he could do in the 21st century what he did in the middle of the 20th century. I think he would have done a lot, maybe more than anybody else. But also I think his methods, his really bullying messages, really, really, he bullied people, including powerful people. I don't think that would work quite as easy today, but I do think we need it today. And I think even today, we found even now we have in New York, just the beginnings of leftists. I'm thinking of AOC, the woman who led the campaign against Amazon in New York saying, well, we need some development. If we want to make housing more affordable, somebody has got to build something. It's not that we've got more voter because you say you want affordable housing. You got to build affordable housing and especially you got to build more of it. So we have to allow people, we have to overturn the NIMBYism to say, well, even today for all of our concern about environmental change, we have to work together. I mean, in some ways we have to believe that we're in some ways in the same boat and it won't work if we put more people in the boat, but don't make the boat any bigger. Yeah.Dwarkesh Patel 1:01:59But when people discuss Moses and the power accumulated, they often talk about the fact that he took so much power away from democratically elected officials and the centralized so much power in himself. And obviously the power broker talks a great deal about the harms of that kind of centralization. But I'm curious having studied the history of New York, what are the benefits if there can be one coordinated cohesive plan for the entire city? So if there's one person who's designing all the bridges, all the highways, all the parks, is something more made possible that can be possible if like multiple different branches and people have their own unique visions? I don't know if that question makes sense.Kenneth Jackson 1:02:39That's a big question. And you've got to put a lot of trust into the grand planner, especially if a massive area of 20, 25 million people, bigger than the city, I'm not sure what you're really talking about. I think that in some ways we've gone too far in the ability to obstruct change, to stop it. And we need change. I mean, houses deteriorate and roads deteriorate and sewers deteriorate. We have to build into our system the ability to improve them. And now in New York we respond to emergencies. All of a sudden a water main breaks, the street collapses and then they stop everything, stop the water main break and repair the street and whatever it is. Meanwhile in a hundred other places it's leaking, it's just not leaking enough to make the road collapse. But the problem is there every day, every minute. Right. Yeah, yeah, yeah.1:03:44 Is Progress CyclicalDwarkesh Patel 1:03:44I'm curious, as a professor, I mean you've studied American history. Do you just see this as a cyclical thing where you have periods where maybe one person has too much power to periods where there's dispersed vitocracy and sclerosis and then you're just going to go through these cycles? Or how do you see that in the grand context of things, how do you see where we are, where we were during Moses and where we might be in the future?Kenneth Jackson 1:04:10Well you're right to say that much of life is cyclical. And there is a swing back and forth. But having said that, I think the person like Robert Moses is unusual, partly because he might have gone on to become a hedge fund person or didn't have hedge funds when he was around. But you know, new competitor to Goldman Sachs, I mean he could have done a lot of things, maybe been a general. He wanted to have power and control. And I think that's harder to accumulate now. We have too much power. You can demonstrate and you can stop anything. We love demonstrations in the United States. We respect them. We see it as a visible expression of our democracy, is your ability to get on the streets and block the streets. But you know, still you have to get to work. I mean at some point in the day you've got to do something. And yeah, Hitler could have done a lot of things if he wanted to. He could have made Berlin into a... But you know, if you have all the power, Hitler had a lot of it. If he turned Berlin into a colossal city, he was going to make it like Washington but half-sive. Well Washington has already got its own issues. The buildings are too big. Government buildings don't have life on the street and stuff like this. Like Hitler would destroy it forever because you build a monumental city that's not for people. And I think that was probably one of Moses' weak points is unlike Jane Jacobs who saw people. Moses didn't see people. He saw bridges. He saw highways. He saw tunnels. He saw rivers. He saw the city as a giant traffic problem. Jane Jacobs, who was a person without portfolio most of her life except of her own powers of judgment and persuasion, she thought, well what is the shoe repairman got to do with the grocery store, got to do with the school, got to do with something else? She saw what Moses didn't see. She saw the intricacies of the city. He saw a giant landscape. She saw the block, just the block.Dwarkesh Patel 1:06:45Yeah there's a common trope about socialist and communist which is that they love humanity in the abstract but they hate people as individuals. And it's like I guess one way to describe Robert Moses. It actually kind of reminds me of one of my relatives that's a doctor and he's not exactly a people person. And he says like, you know, I hate like actually having to talk to the patients about like, you know, like ask them questions. I just like the actual detective work of like what is going on, looking at the charts and figuring out doing the diagnosis. Are you optimistic about New York? Do you think that in the continuing towards the end of the 21st century and into the 22nd century, it will still be the capital of the world or what do you think is the future ofKenneth Jackson 1:07:30the city? Well, The Economist, which is a major publication that comes out of England, recently predicted that London and New York would be in 2100 what they are today, which is the capitals of the world. London is not really a major city in terms of population, probably under 10 million, much smaller than New York and way smaller than Tokyo. But London has a cosmopolitan, heterogeneous atmosphere within the rule of law. What London and New York both offer, which Shanghai doesn't or Hong Kong doesn't at the moment is a system so if you disagree, you're not going to disappear. You know what I mean? It's like there's some level of guarantee that personal safety is sacred and you can say what you want. I think that's valuable. It's very valuable. And I think the fact that it's open to newcomers, you can't find a minority, so minority that they don't have a presence in New York and a physical presence. I mean, if you're from Estonia, which has got fewer people than New York suburbs, I mean individual New York suburbs, but there's an Estonian house, there's Estonian restaurants, there's, you know, India, Pakistan, every place has got an ethnic presence. If you want it, you can have it. You want to merge with the larger community, merge with it. That's fine. But if you want to celebrate your special circumstances, it's been said that New York is everybody's second home because you know if you come to New York, you can find people just like yourself and speaking your language and eating your food and going to your religious institution. I think that's going to continue and I think it's not only what makes the United States unusual, there are a few other places like it. Switzerland is like it, but the thing about Switzerland that's different from the United States is there are parts of Switzerland that are most of it's Swiss German and parts of it's French, but they stay in their one places, you know what I mean? So they speak French here and they speak German there. You know, Arizona and Maine are not that different demographically in the United States. Everybody has shuffled the deck several times and so I think that's what makes New York unique. In London too. Paris a little bit. You go to the Paris underground, you don't even know what language you're listening to. I think to be a great city in the 21st century, and by the way, often the Texas cities are very diverse, San Francisco, LA, very diverse. It's not just New York. New York kind of stands out because it's bigger and because the neighborhoods are more distinct. Anybody can see them. I think that's, and that's what Robert Moses didn't spend any time thinking about. He wasn't concerned with who was eating at that restaurant. Wasn't important, or even if there was a restaurant, you know? Whereas now, the move, the slow drift back towards cities, and I'm predicting that the pandemic will not have a permanent influence. I mean, the pandemic is huge and it's affected the way people work and live and shop and have recreation. So I'm not trying to blow it off like something else, but I think in the long run, we are social animals. We want to be with each other. We need each other, especially if you're young, you want to be with potential romantic partners. But even other people are drawn. Just a few days ago, there was a horrible tragedy in Seoul, Korea. That's because 100,000 young people are drawn to each other. They could have had more room to swing their arms, but they wanted to crowd into this one alley because that's where other people were. They wanted to go where other people were. That's a lot about the appeal of cities today. We've been in cars and we've been on interstate highways. At the end of the day, we're almost like cats. We want to get together at night and sleep on each other or with each other. I think that's the ultimate. It's not for everybody. Most people would maybe rather live in a small town or on the top of a mountain, but there's a percentage of people. Let's call it 25% who really want to be part of the tumble in the tide and want to be things mixed up. They will always want to be in a place like New York. There are other places, San Francisco, Boston, Philadelphia a little bit. They're not mainly in the United States, but in Europe, Copenhagen. Copenhagen is not a big city, neither is Prague, but they have urbanity. New York has urbanity. I think we don't celebrate urbanity as much as we might. The pure joy of being with others.1:12:36 Friendship with CaroDwarkesh Patel 1:12:36Yeah. I'm curious if you ever got a chance to talk to Robert Caro himself about Moses at someKenneth Jackson 1:12:45point. Robert Caro and I were friends. In fact, when the power broker received an award, the Francis Parkman Prize from the Society of American Historians, it turned out we lived near each other in the Bronx. And I drove him home and we became friends and social friends. And I happened to be with him on the day that Robert Moses died. We were with our wives eating out in a neighborhood called Arthur Avenue. The real Little Italy of New York is in the Bronx. It's also called Be

In this week’s episode of The Mixtape with Scott, I had the pleasure of interviewing Kyle Kretschman, Head of Economics at Spotify. It was a great opportunity for me because Kyle is one of the first economists I have spoken to who didn’t enter tech as a senior economist (e.g., John List, Susan Athey, Michael Schwarz, Steve Tadelis). Kyle entered tech straight out of graduate school. He spent much of his career at Amazon, a firm that has more PhD economists than can be easily counted. Under Pat Bajari’s leadership there, Kyle grew and his success was noticed such that he was then hired away by Spotify to lead up their economics team. At the end of the interview, I asked Kyle an economics article that has haunted his memories and he said “BLP”, which is affectionate shorthand that “Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium” by Berry, Levinsohn and Pakes 1995 Econometrica goes by. I really enjoyed this interview, and despite the less than ideal sound quality at times, I hope you will too.But before I conclude, I wanted to share some more of my thoughts. This series I’ve been doing on “economists in tech”, which has included interviews with John List, Susan Athey, Michael Schwarz and Steve Tadelis, comes from a complex place inside me. First there is the sheer curiosity I have about it as a part of the labor market for PhD economists. As I have said before on here, the tech sector has exploded in the last decade and the demand for PhD economists has grown steadily year over year. Tech demand selects on PhD economists with promising academic style research inclinations. There is substantial positive selection in this market as firms seek out strong candidates can be produce value for them. This is reflected in both junior market salaries, but also senior. Job market candidates are economists with technical skills in econometrics and economic theory, not to mention possess competent computer programming skills in at least one but often several popular coding languages. They are also candidates who were often entertaining careers within academia at the time they entered tech, and in those academic careers, they envisioned themselves writing academic articles about research they found personally and scientifically important and meaningful. Going into tech, therefore, would at least seem to involve choice that may go far beyond merely that of taking one job over another. It may involve a choice between a career in academia and a career outside it, which for many of us can feel permanent, as though we are leaving academia. And for many economists, it may be the first time they have ever contemplated such a thing. If they do internalize the story that way, if they do see taking a job in tech as “leaving academia”, then I can imagine that for at least some economists, that may be complicated, at least. But there’s another reason I have been wanting to talk to economists in tech and that is I am very concerned about the welfare of our PhD students. In a recent article published in the Journal of Economic Literature, economists interviewed graduate students in top economics programs. They found there incredibly high rates of depression, anxiety, loneliness and even suicidality. This is a common feature of graduate studies, but it is interesting that PhD economists have incredibly good employment opportunities and yet the depression and anxiety plague there too. One of the things that struck me in that study was the disconnect between what graduate students felt about their work and what their advisors felt about their own work. Many students, for instance, do not feel they are properly supported by advisers, do not believe their advisers care about their research success and do not even care about them as a person. Whereas most Americans (and faculty) feel that their work has a positive impact on society, only 20% of PhD students in economics feel that way. (I discussed the article as well as my own research on the mental health of PhD students here.) I suppose part of me feels a great sigh of relief to see the labor market for PhD economists expanding in light of those troubling statistics. If students know that life is full of infinite possibilities, then perhaps they can begin to process earlier what they want to do in the short years they have on this small spinning ball of rock we call Earth. If students do not in the end want to become professors, if they do not have the opportunities to become one, they should know that there is no “failure” involved there. Careers are just that — careers. They do not tell us who we are. The sooner a student can detach from the unhelpful story that our value is linked to a vita listing our accomplishments, the sooner they can begin their own life work of choosing their meaning. Can having more labor market opportunities with more employers competing for them help do that? Well no, not really. At least, not exactly. It can disrupt certain equilibrium, but then the new equilibrium can just as easily cover that up too. Still, I do like the idea that to keep students in academia, universities and departments must fight harder for them, pay attention to them, and invest in them as people. I like the idea that students have more options and that the options are diverse. Will it help their depression? Well, that’s another matter, as that’s complex. And presumably the economists in the survey I mentioned were themselves well aware of the career options they had since they were coming from the nation’s top 10 PhD programs in economics. I suppose my point is that ultimately, the burden of life really cannot be resolved with money or career. We are trained to look there because we have boundless appetites. But ultimately the hard work of navigating life can only be helped so much by a job. We must still decide for ourselves what meaning we will choose for ourselves. But one thing I know, and one thing which I think our profession is profoundly bad at saying out loud, is that if we make our identity connected to vitas, we will not just be miserable, we will be hopeless, and probably poisoned. Such a mindset leads to endless laps on a brutalizing treadmill of meaningless performance in which a person chases for first place in a race they don’t remember signing up for and which they cannot win. They compare themselves with others running, not knowing that they too are brutalized by their own treadmill, not realizing that it is impossible to catch up with someone else as there is always someone else ahead of us. The sooner we learn that the joy we long for will not come when we get a top 5, the sooner we can look elsewhere. It has taken me many years to relearn a lesson I learned decades ago — I am whole now. I am complete now. I still run, and I still chase, but I am not chasing completeness. I am not chasing my own wholeness. Being whole and complete has nothing to do with a career. Careers are ultimately orthogonal to hope, which does not mean they do not matter — they absolutely matter. But if asked to deliver meaning, we will find that our jobs are as weak as wet spaghetti at such a task as that.So, I suppose in some ways I simply want to announce — there are incredible opportunities for economists inside government, commerce and academia. But the weight of this life is not likely to be lighter in any one of them, for the weight we feel in life is largely self imposed, inside us, in the stories we tell about who we are and for many of us who we are not. Those stories are real, because we feel them and because we believe them, but they are not true. All stories are wrong, but some are useful, and the story that our lives can only matter if we have certain types of jobs or certain types of success, while it may be useful to getting a paper out or accomplishing something important, in a much bigger sense it is hollow at best and pure poison at worst. TRANSCRIPTThis transcript will be updated once the more complete transcript is finished; for now it was transcribed using voice-to-text machine learning.Kyle Kretschman:Might not have prepared myself well enough to be attractive for some of the most pop most top tier schools. Scott Cunningham:In this week's episode of the mix tape with Scott, I had the pleasure of interviewing Kyle kretchma the head of economics at the streaming platform. Spotify. Before I dive into the interview, though, I wanted to give you a bit of a heads up about the sound quality. Unfortunately, the sound quality in the interview on Kaza side is a bit muffled. We discussed refilming. It tried to find a way to tweak it, but there were certain constraints on the actual sound itself that kept us from being able to do it. And we didn't feel that refilming, it would be good because we thought that the interview had a lot of serendipitous kind of spontaneous tangents and things spoken about that. We thought students and people in academia would want to know, would need maybe even need to know. And I doubted that I could recreate it, cuz I don't even know why it happened. Scott Cunningham:So I'm gonna post a video version of this at my subs, for those who feel that a video version would help them kind of follow it in so far as the audio might be at times challenging. So check out the subst for those of you that wanna watch, watch it instead of just listen to it, hopefully that'll help. I won't say much here by way of introduction, except to say a few things about Kyle, because I wanted to let Kyle tell you his story in his own words, cuz it's his story to tell. And it's an interesting story. Kyle's a PhD economist though from the university of Texas Austin, which is down the road from where I live and work at Baylor, where he wrote on topics in graduate school and applied econometrics, empirical industrial organization or empirical IO and public choice after graduating, Kyle went to Amazon, not academia. Scott Cunningham:In fact, given we might start the boom of tech hiring PhD economists in the early to mid 20 2010s. You could say Kyle maybe was sort of one of the earlier hires among that second wave of PhD economists that went there. He worked for several years at Amazon before being hired away by Spotify to head up and lead a new economics team there, perhaps this is part of a broader trend of tech firms building up more internal teams, not just of data scientists, but like Amazon departments of economists who knows recall though from an earlier interview with Susan athe where, when I asked Susan why she said pat Maja had done something amazing at Amazon, she said he made economists productive. And in time he made many of them productive and very in productive from what I've been able to follow. And Kyle is from what I can gather someone whose skills matured and deepened under the leadership of Papa jar at Amazon and other leaders at and other economists at Amazon. Scott Cunningham:And he was ultimately hunted down by a major tech term to create an economics team there I'm by no means an expert on the labor market for PhD economists. I just have been very intrigued and curious by the, the, the Mar the labor market for PhD economists in tech, because well, partly because of realizing first that cause of inference was really valued in tech, but then to sort of realize that there was just this very large community of economists there, but I don't think it's controversial to say over the last 10 to 15 years, the tech industry really has been disruptive in the labor market for PhD economists. They continue to hire at the junior and senior market in larger and larger volume selecting more and more on people who likely would've gone into academia into tenure track or tenured positions. They pay very high wages, some of the very, some of the highest wages in the country, both at the junior level and especially at the, at the higher end at the, at the more advanced levels, people can earn compensation packages by the, in the, by the time they're in their thirties, that many of us didn't know were possible. Scott Cunningham:It's in my mind, historically novel, and I might be wrong about this, but it, it seems historically novel that the PhD economists who likely would've produced academic research papers in tenured and tenure track jobs have begun to branch out of academia, but maintain those skills and maintain that research output. It's partly driven best. I can tell, buy Amazon, I might be wrong, but by Amazon and paja, as well as Jeff Bezos own view, that economists are what I guess we would just say value added for many firms. Therefore I'm continuing to wanna speak with economists in tech to help better trace out the story. This interview with Kyle follows on the back of earlier interviews with people in tech like John list, you know, a, a distinguished professor of economics at the university of Chicago, but also the former chief economist that Lyft and Uber now Walmart Michael Schwartz, former professor of economics at Harvard. Now, chief economist at Microsoft and Susan athe former chief economist at Microsoft professor at Stanford and now chief economist at the DOJ. I hope you find this to be an interesting dive into the industry. Learn a little bit more about economists there, but by, by learning the about one particular important economist, there a, a young man named Kyle crutch, head of economics at Spotify, my name's Scott Cunningham. And this is the mix tape with Scott. Scott Cunningham:Well, it's my pleasure today to have, as my guest on the mix tape with Scott, Kyle crutch, Kyle, thanks so much for being on the call. Kyle Kretschman:Hey Scott, thanks for having me really appreciate the time to talk Scott Cunningham:Well before we get started with your career and, and everything. I was wondering if you could just tell us your name and your title and where you work. Kyle Kretschman:Sure. Yeah. As you said, I'm Kyle kretchma, I'm the head of economics at Spotify, Scott Cunningham:Head of economics at Spotify. Awesome. Okay. I can't wait to talk. So let me, let me, let's get started. I was wondering if you could just tell me where you grew up. Kyle Kretschman:Sure. So most of the time I grew up in outside of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, about an hour north of the city, real real small town probably had one stop light. And maybe the, the funny story that I can share is what I took my wife there. She asked where's the Starbucks. And I said, no Starbucks here. There's no Scott Cunningham:Starbucks. Kyle Kretschman:Yeah. So pretty small town called Chippewa township in Pennsylvania. Scott Cunningham:Oh, okay. Is that near like Amish stuff or anything like that? Kyle Kretschman:No, that's the other side of the state. So this would be Western Pennsylvania about near the end of the turnpike, about five minutes from the Ohio border. Scott Cunningham:Oh, okay. Okay. You said, but you, did you mention, you kind of grew up in different places? Kyle Kretschman:Yeah. So before that, my father worked in civil engineering and so would do build roads and bridges basically across every, across the nation. So I was actually born in Louisiana, lived there with, I think for a whole two, three weeks. I don't quite remember. Cause I was pretty young obviously, but then Michigan and then spent some time in Philadelphia before moving out to Pittsburgh around second grade. Scott Cunningham:Oh, that's kinda like, that's like when people described their parents being in the military, just kind of moving around a lot. Kyle Kretschman:Yeah. A little bit. So, but Scott Cunningham:Then you settled in the second grade Kyle Kretschman:That's right. Yeah. So outside of Pittsburgh and then stayed in Pittsburgh through high school and even through undergrad. Scott Cunningham:Oh, okay. Oh, you went to undergrad in Pennsylvania. Kyle Kretschman:Yeah, I did. So I went to undergrad at the university of Pittsburgh. Oh, okay. It was, yeah. If, I guess maybe continuing the story growing up in a town with no Starbucks. I was, I was pretty intrigued by going to a city. Yeah. And find out that lifestyle and yeah, we might have lived pretty close, like an hour away, but we didn't go down to the city very much. So Pittsburgh was just really, really enticing for a city to, for, to go to undergrad in. And so I basically looked at all schools that were in cities and so the proximity plus then the, the ability to just spread my wings and explore what it's like to be in a city was really, really enticing. Scott Cunningham:Did any of your friends go to pit with you? Kyle Kretschman:Yeah, so there's probably, I grew, I graduated from a class of about a little over 200 people in high school and I think there was like five or six people from high school that went to pit for my class. So definitely had some really good friends who went and kept in touch with, through undergrad. Scott Cunningham:Mm. Yeah. So it wasn't, were you sort of an early generation or you weren't, were you a first generation college student in your family or did your parents go to college Kyle Kretschman:Combination? So my dad went to Penn state civil engineer, as I mentioned, me and my mom actually graduated from undergrad the same week. So my mom went back to school later in life after me, after we went to school. And so yeah, we, we were able to celebrate graduation cuz she went to a small private school right outside of the city also. Scott Cunningham:Oh, okay. Okay. Yeah. Well, so what did you like to do in high school? Kyle Kretschman:So I played a lot of sports before high school and then I kind of switched into, and this was a traditional sports of football, basketball, baseball, but then I switched into tennis in high school. And so that kept me busy, but along with a lot of academics and really, really liked computer science. So played a lot of video games growing up, really enjoyed like that aspect in combination. Scott Cunningham:What games were your, were you, did you play on a, on a video game, plat platform? Like an Nintendo or did you play? Kyle Kretschman:Yeah, no, we played a lot of plays very much into like role playing games. Some of the arcade games like Marvel versus Capcom. So yeah. Yeah. Very, very interested in gaming. Yeah. Maybe I was a little too early for that. Cause you know, every, everybody in the 1990s was like, oh, I could make pu money playing video games, which wasn't true back, which wasn't true back then, but that's right. You know, nowadays Scott Cunningham:You can that's right. Yeah. You know, that's right. You can do it. There's all kinds of ways you can make money doing things today that nobody knew was possible 10, 10 or 15 years ago. Even Kyle Kretschman:My Scott Cunningham:That's cool. Yeah. I, I, it's funny, you know, computer games can keep a, keep a kid in high school going, you know, like especially I think they're kind of misunderstood. I, I had a lot of friends that, well, I mean, I, I, I had, when I didn't have a lot of, we moved from a small town in Mississippi to Memphis and I, those, those that first year when I didn't have a friends, I did bulletin boards and played Sierra online games like Kings quest. And it's like, it's like, you know, not intertemporal smoothing, but like inner temporal socializing, smoothing, you know, so that you just kind of get through some periods that would otherwise be a little lonelier. Kyle Kretschman:Yeah, for sure. And I mean, I mean for this audience, like most video games are some sort of form of constrained optimization. So there was, there was the inkling that I, I liked understanding how economies worked in high school through this and yeah. Going back to my mom, my mom always said like she encouraged it and she encouraged education. And there was actually kind of like that nexus, whenever I took economics in high school, it was like, oh, you know, some of these games really are full economies that are constrained and constrained in a way that you can understand and complete in, you know, under a hundred hours. Right. But there was that combination that was kind of showing itself of computer science, computer gains and economics of putting itself together. Scott Cunningham:So you were kind of thinking even in high school about economics in that kind of like, you know, optimizing something and like, like almost that modern theory that we get in graduate school. Kyle Kretschman:I think more, I had the intuition when I didn't have know how to say what it was in high school because my high school was pretty forward and that it offered both advanced computer science courses that could get you through definitely through first year of undergrad, maybe even through second year with advanced placement. And then they also offered advanced placement economics. And so I, I ended up taking advanced place in economics my junior year when most people took senior year. And so whenever I was going small Scott Cunningham:Town, even in that small town, they had, you had good your high school. Good econ. Kyle Kretschman:Yeah. It was a real, it was a really good high school that would put together good curriculum that did a lot of college preparatory work though. They, wow. They really leaned into the advanced placement, the AP courses to get students ready to go to school. Scott Cunningham:Wow. Wow. So even at, as a junior, you're taking AP econ, you know, you don't have to take AP econ. That kind of is say that, that sounds like somebody that was kind of interested in it. Kyle Kretschman:Yeah, very much. Yeah. And again, as soon as I, I definitely didn't get to the graduate level of understanding, like, you know, LaGrange multipliers, but the, the micro and macro sequence just made intuitive sense to me. It was like, it was kind of where I was like, yeah, this fit. And this is how I think. And some people might criticize me now that I think too much like an economist. Right. Like, but at the same time, it just like, it started to put together that language and even more so some of the frameworks that really kind of drew me into it. Scott Cunningham:Well, did you, did you, did you notice that you had this interest in computer science and this interest in economics and that they might be one, did you get a feeling that they could be in conversation with each other? Kyle Kretschman:Not Scott Cunningham:At first, our ancestors a hundred years ago. Didn't, you know, those economists didn't think that way, but now it's just so natural for this generation of economists to be almost one half, you know, one third mathematician, one third economist, one third computer scientist. Kyle Kretschman:Yeah. So not at first, but I, I feel like I made have like lucked into it, honestly, because whenever I chose to go to Pitt, I chose to start as computer science because I knew what that pass was. I was inspired by my older brother, the great teacher in high school. And like, I was definitely like, okay, a software software development engineer career is great. It's cutting edge. It's there. But after probably like the first year, it just didn't feel that end state didn't feel right. And so I made kind of the hard decision to choose, honestly, to switch into economics as a major, because I wasn't sure what the end state would be, where I was going with it. Cuz it was definitely felt more amorphous, you know, it's a social science, so yeah. It didn't feel like it was gonna be as clear cut and as, and have as much certainty. But pretty quickly, like after a year was like, oh, well we're doing, we're using E views at the time. All right, this is coding. I know how to do this. This is great. Right. And starting, starting to see some of that in undergrad was like the, kind of the aha moment that like, yeah, this is, this is a place where I can apply this love of coding and problem solving, but problems and solutions that I find really, really hard and interesting. Scott Cunningham:It was because of econometrics though. It was in that. Kyle Kretschman:Exactly. Yeah, yeah. Scott Cunningham:Yeah. Wow. That's, that's really interesting because you know, I think it's still the case that, you know, you can easily end up with an econometrics class that remains purely theoretical and doesn't end up, you know, exposing the student with a lot of actual coding, but it sounds like your professors were, were getting you into working with data. Kyle Kretschman:That's correct. Yeah. Both. Both within the class. So like I said, we used E views at the time. Yeah. And again, kind of like learning as a go, I, I don't think I really knew what I was doing whenever we were typing commands and E views, but the computer scientist in me was like, okay, well this is a function. I know functions. Didn't put outputs, but definitely didn't understand necessarily things that were going under the hoods or you know, all of the theory that goes with it. Oh, right, right, right. So it was, you Scott Cunningham:Knew the coding part, you knew you were coding, but you did, but like the, the actual statistical modeling was kind of the new part, but that was a way for you to kind of engage it a little bit. Kyle Kretschman:Yep, exactly. Scott Cunningham:Oh, that's interesting. That's interesting. Well, so what were you gonna have to choose between a computer science and an econ major did or did you end up doing both? Kyle Kretschman:So I chose an econ major, but then I had what I would call basically minors or concentrations in computer science, but then also in statistics and also in math, because once, once I had an internship at a bank and was doing data entry and I was like, eh, I don't think this is what I wanna use my economics degree for. Yeah. I had a couple professors at pit named Steve Houston and Frank Giani who brought me on as a research assistant, an undergrad to start being part of some of like their survey projects and data collection. And even, even one of 'em I don't, Steve was crazy, but he even let me TA classes on undergrad, so oh, wow. But he kinda, I mean, I, I say that jokingly because it was formative for me, it was like, okay, this is great. How do I do more of this? And he was like, well, you go get your econ PhD. And I was like, so I can be a teacher with computer science and doing economics altogether. He goes, yeah, let's do that. And so it was with the help and support of some of these really good professors and education to kind push me on this path consider to get Ancon PhD. Scott Cunningham:Mm. And that's when you were like, so how, how, what, what year would you have been in your program? Kyle Kretschman:Probably. I think I was in my junior year where I was starting to explore this. And then in my senior year is where I was like, okay, I'm actually gonna be doing more more of this and applying to grad school because going back, as I said, I entered with some credits. So my senior year was very, I didn't need a full course load. So I was looking for other things to keep me busy, which maybe, maybe that's one of the themes of this conversation is I kinda kind of like the variety and really have variety seeking behavior too. Yeah, Scott Cunningham:Yeah, yeah. Yeah. So you graduate, was there like a field that you were mostly interested in? Kyle Kretschman:I thought I would be going into macro economics. Macro. Yep. Yeah, because Steve worked on the council of economic advisors and I was really inspired by that and the application of economics within, within policy and just again, always applied economics, not necessarily theoretical. So yeah. Then again was, that would be sort of like labor and macro was like the initial idea, but finally Scott, I didn't do all my homework and like, think about like what grad school looked like or all it looked like. I kind of went a little bit more naive than I think other people with, again, ideas of how I could become like a teacher, an educator with some of these tools versus like how disciplined and single thread you need to be on research to be within an econ PhD program and to see that. Scott Cunningham:So you, so you kind of were like, so when you were thinking about graduate schools, what, how, what, what did you sort of, can you walk me through like what you were thinking and how you went about trying to apply to graduate school and where you ultimately chose? Kyle Kretschman:Yeah, sure. So applied probably the, the top 10 and the top 10 probably said no thanks. But also then was targeting specific schools that we had relationships with that I knew would provide computer science and macros. So university at the Iowa at the time, this was 2000 and had a really strong macro program. And then also at the university of Texas with Dean Corbe there, they also had one in Russ Cooper. And so those were like the two that I was like targeting at outside of what the top schools were. But yeah, as I, I kind of mentioned, I, I might not have prepared myself well enough to be attractive for some of the most pop with top tier schools because kind of, you know, as I said, bounced around and would be yeah, a little bit working on it a little bit different things and have computer science versus being solely focused on like economics and math and things that might be more of what the top tier schools were looking for. Scott Cunningham:Yeah. Yeah. You know, you know, it's like the, I mean, I'm the same way. I didn't ha have any econ classes in college. I was a English major, but the, the, the diff there's so many students that sort of seem to almost for whatever reason, know a lot sooner what they want to do and then like make those choices. And then there's just many of us that are, you know, in a process of search yeah. That when you're in a process of search, well, you, you know, by definition, that's like you're using that time to search. Kyle Kretschman:That's exactly right. As Scott Cunningham:Opposed to saying, I've gotta take, I've gotta become a triple major computer science, math, econ, and have to do like, you know, these set of these set of steps that, you know, there's no way I could even have known to do it unless somebody had told me it's weird. I mean, it's just funny how the little things can have such big repercussions for your whole life, but it's, but it, it worked out great. So you end up, where do you end up going? Kyle Kretschman:I went to the university of Texas at Austin. Scott Cunningham:Yeah. Yeah. What year was that? And Kyle Kretschman:So, so this would've been 2002. Scott Cunningham:Oh, okay. So you go to oh 6 0 7. Kyle Kretschman:Okay. And so ended up working. So I ended up working a lot with Jason, Ava. Yeah. And who came in and became the, the head of the department. Yeah. Applied econometrician who just did an amazing job going back to whenever I said, I didn't know how things worked under the hood, in those formulas. He didn't even let us use those formulas. So anytime we were doing applied econometric econometrics with them, not only we learning to teach, we're learning the theory, but he said, you have to code it yourself. You have to do the matrix algebra, you have to calculate standard errors. You can't really call those functions. So that was probably again, that wasn't until the third year, but yeah, in the first year to go back a little bit, Scott Cunningham:I, that played to your strengths though. I bet that played to your strengths. Yeah. Just at the end of the day, wanting to be someone that, that wrote down the raw code. Kyle Kretschman:That's exactly right. And, but the first year I didn't play my strength. Yeah. Yeah. So the first year I felt, I felt a little bit outta water and I was like, this is, I remember when we were proving what local non association. And I was like, this is, this is one hard, but also like, again, going back to like, that is this actually how I wanna be spending my time and right. I, I was like, yes, I do. But I was like, I, I knew that I needed to get to those applied applications. Yeah. And so that's, again, why I was thankful to be able to work with Jason and Steve Trayo and a few other, they applied econometricians at Texas that really encouraged me to explore starting in the second year. They didn't us like pin it down. And so I, I thought I, at the second year I worked like wrote the first, a paper on school choice and trying to see if I could find some sort of instrument on school selection on public versus private. And again, so that led to like that idea of like applied econometrics was really, really the thing that like, I was like, okay, now this fits again. Once we got into second and third year Scott Cunningham:Was, was picking up that intuition, that kind of like labor style identification, causal inference kind of approach. Was that something you picked up from Jason or was that just like from your labor people? Oh, okay. Kyle Kretschman:Yeah. That's yeah. From Jason and Steve a lot. They did a great job of doing that. And yeah. So then, yeah. Then I, then I threw in, I knew threw a little bit of a switch in there also, and my co-author Nick master and Arti and closest friend and classmate in Texas was very theoretical and very interested in applied empirical IO. And so we started working in that field also together. And so then I got to work with the Han me vet and Ken Hendrix on using empirical IO. So, oh, wow. Yeah. And so again, Scott Cunningham:This is the more structural, more structural econometric. So you've got this like reduced, you've kind of got this like traditional labor reduced form type of, part of your brain. And then you've got this empirical IO structural part of your brain kind of emerging at the same time. Kyle Kretschman:That's right. That's exactly right. Yeah. And then we threw, we threw everybody for a loop. I also saying we wanted to study study politics and how money turns into vote using both using all these tools. So yeah, I can see here kind of saying in hindsight, like it all makes sense in this story that I'm telling you, but at the time it was more of what you were talking about. It was searching. It was, I wanna be working on really interesting applied problems. I love the toolkit that economics provides in framing. And yeah. I have to be coding to be able to utilize these tools that I've had built up in the past. Scott Cunningham:Yeah, yeah. Yeah. So, so matching with Nick was really important Kyle Kretschman:Very much. Scott Cunningham:And why, if you hadn't to match with Nick, I mean, just kind of outta curiosity, if you could articulate the value added of that whole partnership, what was it? Kyle Kretschman:Yes. Sure. So, so we matched basically from math camp going into, going into the first year because Nick came both from the pure math and physics background and also had some experience in the air force. So the air force was sending him to Texas and he, we were, we were definitely, we definitely didn't have a lot of vend overlap on the fact. He's like, well, I would have the intuition and some of the computer skills, Nick would have the theoretical math skills, Scott Cunningham:The theoretical math skills. Yep. Kyle Kretschman:And then we just had, we had the common factor that we wanted to work hard together and learn together and we're willing to, we're willing to intellectually hash out really tough things together. Yeah. So yeah, he huge credit to him through being able to put up with me. And he says, he says the same thing once in a while. But again, matching with somebody that had the, the more real analysis proof based understanding of math was so valuable for me. And especially, Scott Cunningham:I think some empirical IO, especially empirical IO, just being able to, you know, think like an economist in the area of IO is thinking real deep about, you know, a rich set of models and modeling approaches. Kyle Kretschman:That's Scott Cunningham:Exactly right. That's definitely not what you're learning in your econometrics classes, even though they might go together. Kyle Kretschman:Yep. So, so yeah, it was just a, it was a really good match from the beginning. And so we complimented each other and we're, we're able to build a strong enough relationship to be able to be able to hash out, have really long nights yelling at each other, we say in the office, but it never, it was always for educational purposes and lifting each other up. Scott Cunningham:Was that different than what you thought grad school was gonna be like? Kyle Kretschman:Yeah. So I knew the research component a little bit. I just didn't under understand the unstructured research on how that was gonna go and like the cadence and where it was gonna and how that was gonna be so required to develop your own viewpoint. Yeah. I thought it would be more directed cuz as a 22 year old, that was the experience I had generally. So that was the big one was the undirected and I liked it, but it was also very difficult. Scott Cunningham:How would you describe what you're talking about to your college self? Who kind of like, you know, he, he doesn't really, he doesn't even have the vocabulary for what you're describing. What would you say? It was like, Kyle Kretschman:I think you use a good term. You have to be not only wanting to search, you have to be willing to search, but you also, then you have to put in the guardrails yourself to keep it focused because you're not necessarily gonna have those external guardrails that you will have from an alternative path of going to either like a master's program that's gonna be more structured or going in an industry or going to get a job. Right. Like I mentioned at a bank for like a 22 year old where entry level jobs are gonna be more structured. Yeah. So yeah, I just, I, I probably knew it, but I didn't know what it meant to be and what, what it meant to experience it. Scott Cunningham:So how did Jason and, and Steve kind of, and any other faculty, how, how did they, how did they, I, so I did this interview with Susan athe and she was saying that, you know, the amazing thing that pat Maja did at Amazon was he managed to make economists productive, which kind it was kind of a weird, weird way of saying it. And so in a way it could, in a way you could imagine a department that sort of has like a, you know, this idea of like research has got to come. There's like a, there's like a, a journey that a graduate student has to come on to just to basically make a decision to be a researcher. Yeah. You know, and you could imagine that creating the conditions for that is, is involves faculty member, doing stuff that's not necessarily obvious. What, how did they, how do you think they contributed to that for you personally? Kyle Kretschman:For me personally, at the time, again, it goes back to encourage the exploration versus mandating or saying that I need to be on one path. So like even Nick and I at the time explore the idea of a private company and how, what, what that would be into like pinching, pitching a venture capitalist on, on that. So all those things, again, in grad school, they, they were encouraged, but they weren't structured at the time. Yeah. So yeah, I can, I can, I understand Susan's comment because I was, I was one of those economists who started pretty early with pat and we, we have a lot of good mechanisms that we've learned and built at Amazon when I was there at the time through pat, through lay other people who were willing to make the jump into this entrepreneurial space that hit the election and the, of coalesce of economists doing open book, empirical research, along with data science. Right. Just becoming more and more valuable and applicable, but is kind of what Susan piloting that we can, we can talk more about if you Scott Cunningham:Want. Yeah. I do wanna talk about that. I wanna talk about the, the decision though, you know, to, to be, because you, you sort of started off in college, you know, you said things like, oh, you can become an educator and then you've gone in this non-academic direction and you know, it, it, and that's like a, that's a more common story now, you know, right. Of, of top talent, very talented PhDs that you could have easily seen 20 years ago, would've been an academia. Their counterfactuals are, are following you. And so, you know, it's, it's a, it's a big part of our, you know, collective story as economists that this, this new labor market that didn't, that didn't exist historically now exists and draws in so much talent. And I was just curious in a way you're kind of like a, a first generation person like that, you know, when you think about it, right. Cause text's not very old, right. Facebook, Facebook, what it's like 2007. And so, you know, so you've got this, you, you, you've got this, this chance to kind of say like, it must have been, so I don't wanna put words in your mouth, but I guess I was just wondering, what were the feelings like as you considered not taking an academic track and when did it start to be something in your mind that you thought that's gonna be something I'm explore Kyle Kretschman:Probably pretty early, because if you wanna really trace the roots of like tech economists back, it starts obviously with Hal varying at Google and me and Nick, actually, we, we sent an email to Hal, probably 2008 saying, do you have any, have any use for some summer interns who can do some empirical IO? And he said, no, not, not at this time, but so, but he Scott Cunningham:Answered the email. Kyle Kretschman:He did answer the email. Yeah. It was nice, nice of him to answer. Cause we knew he was probably pretty busy, but so it, honestly, when Amazon started hiring economists, I was probably searching for about a year to move into tech. If you wanna move back to the decision point coming outta grad school, honestly it was a challenging labor or a challenging job market for me, somebody who is a lover variety, who is working on empirical IO problems with campaign, policy, campaign, finance reform, policy recognition. That's, that's not fitting a lot of the standard application process. Yeah. Once again, that's so that's probably a theme for me. And again, at the time it was hard. I was, I was in the running for jobs at VA wakes force that I thought would be really good fit because they're the EDU the emphasis would be on education with the research ability to do research and work on problems that were more widely probably policy oriented. Yeah. But neither neither of them came through. So I just always knew that I industry was gonna be an option. And so Scott Cunningham:What year is this? What, Kyle Kretschman:What, what this would've been in this would've been in Scott Cunningham:20 11, 20 11. Okay. Oh, so you moved through the, you moved through the program or kind of relatively quickly. Oh 7, 4, 4, 5 years. Okay. Kyle Kretschman:Five years. Yeah. Five years. Yeah. Oh six to 11. Okay. But so for about a year, about six. Yeah. Yeah. And so starting in 2013 is whenever I started applying to the first tech job as a data scientist and got it went great until I talked to the VP who was a business part, like pure business person. When I was talking to the hiring manager at the time, it was a company who was providing college counseling as a software service. And so they would do this at their, their clients were both for profit and not for profit companies. And we were talking like, we'd get into details about treatment effects models and how we could measure the impact of their intervention. It went great. But then I had the flyout scheduled, but then the interview with the VP, he said, well, how am I gonna monetize your algorithm? Right. And I was like, I'm not sure I know what algorithm means, but right. I, I wasn't prepared for that language and that application and how you turn econometric modeling and measurement into, into business impact at the time. Yes. Right. So spent another year looking around with different opportunities like that and honestly learning again. So, so whenever Amazon, so this would've been in 2014 and then Amazon was hiring its first big cohort with pat. So this was a cohort that was about, I think there was about 13 of us. It was a no brainer. Kyle Kretschman:Whenever, whenever we did the interview, it just was like, all right, this is exactly right for me. I was hop. I was hoping it was right on the other side. And I could probably tell you some funny stories about the interview process, but I was like, this is, this is what's meant to be. Yeah. So it, it, it was like a 10 year journey from 2004 when I switched outta computer science into 2014 being like this, just this fit. Scott Cunningham:Right. Right. Right. So outta curiosity, you know, is, is there, is there something that you think is supposed to be learned by the fact that when you were on the job market and you had that interview with that, that gig and the, and you get to the VP and he articulates questions that are not traditional econ questions, or even econometrics questions like business profitability to act, it's kind of ironic, isn't it like to everybody? That's not an economist. That's actually what we, they think we do, you know, is like, they think we do all that stuff. And then they don't know that we're like, like you said, you know, trying to set up a Lara and solve, solve it, like what's a Lara, but do you think your competition at that time did know how to answer questions like that? Like non-economists in those positions Kyle Kretschman:Probably at an inflection point. Yeah. Because this is the same time. Wherever machine learning is becoming more common toolkit with an industry. So there would be like machine learning algorithms that are designed for, you know, prediction, problem sequencing, anything like that that are specifically designed to be used in a business setting to monitor. Scott Cunningham:So they, they not only know machine learning, it's like, they also can kind of immediately articulate why this would be profitable. Kyle Kretschman:I think so. Yeah, because again, the computer, so it's like in learning the language and this is the language that would probably be more understood within a machine learning computer science version is okay, well, I'm gonna use this to change the recommendation engine right. Is very common one. Yeah. That's obviously gonna be, so how are you gonna monetize it? I'm gonna improve the match and the recommendation engine it's gonna have this. So I think at the time there was a little bit of it, but, you know, hopefully I think, I think I learned pretty quick that you can, you can use econometrics in a similar vein. As I said, it's a flavor of data science, Scott Cunningham:Have you had to become a blue collar machine learner? Kyle Kretschman:I've had to understand it, but not, I think you mean by blue collar, you mean like implementing it Scott Cunningham:And yeah, I just, when I, I usually say blue collar in the sense of like, you know, you, don't like, you know, you basically are picking up these skills, but you weren't like, you know, you didn't get a PhD in computer science. You know, Kyle Kretschman:The answer was then that answer is definitely yes. So like as we, as our cohort and as we grew, the economics discipline at Amazon, that was a big part of it is how one could we bring in some machine learning scientist help educate and teach us. Mm. And yeah. So, and even in, sometimes in lecture style, we would do that because it was so important, but then even more so learning to so that you can interact with different stakeholders specifically, like machine learning scientists. Mm. Then understanding when you can actually implement it and marry it within the econometric models was definitely a huge part of the education process. Scott Cunningham:So you go to Amazon, is that right? That's like your first entry into tech Kyle Kretschman:That's Scott Cunningham:Right. Is Amazon, what's your title? Kyle Kretschman:So Scott Scott Cunningham:A scientist or economist. Kyle Kretschman:I, it was something like business intelligence engineer. There wasn't an economist job family. There was, as you said, it was kinda the forefront. I think it was this. Yeah. I think that's what it was, but Scott Cunningham:Cause it is now right. Baja has a that's Kyle Kretschman:Right. Scott Cunningham:He created a job title called economist. Kyle Kretschman:That's right. Yeah. And that got set up about a year in, so like, and I was part of the group. So we would set these, we would set up like these people and process mechanisms that allow economists to be so influential and productive within Amazon. Scott Cunningham:Mm, okay. So how is he doing it? Why, why is Susan saying he performed a miracle by making economist productive? Can you kind of describe, like, if you had to just guess at like the counterfactual, if it hadn't been, you know, pat, it hadn't even been an economist that was hired into Pat's position. Like, what is it that he, what, what is it that he, or Amazon or whatever is making you go transform and become this new version of yourself? Kyle Kretschman:There's, there's a lot of factors and I could probably spend an hour on this, but I'll, I'll try to, I'll try to reduce it down to like some key mechanisms and ideas. The first is that Amazon is probably the most data driven company. I know. Mm. They are so focused on measurement, both of things you can directly measure. And, but they are. So they were very early interested in economic measurements that are UN observables either coming from like coming from econometric models. That, that was whenever pat demonstrated some of those that was like the light bulb went off the, so, because again, it, Amazon was run by and still generally is people with operation science background. And so this over index on measuring as, as coly and as precisely as possible, well that's that's economics. So that, that was part of it. Another part of it is culturally Amazon operates that makes decisions based on six page white papers, you wanna make some economists really productive, have them write a six page white paper instead of giving them a presentation, especially to people like who may be in the background with MBAs or other people who have a comparative advantage, we economists have a care advantage in writing. Kyle Kretschman:So it was little bit of like a surprise, but you might hear these anecdotes where it's true. Like whenever you go into a, a decision making meeting, you come in with your six page white paper that says here's the business decision to be made here is my recommendation. And here's why, and people sit there and it can be a room for five people can be a room of 25 executives. They sit and read the paper and they read the whole thing. Is there an append that can go on forever depending on how big the meeting is. Sure. But that structure of, of data driven decision making, combined with how you're presenting your argument is written seems like, seems like economists should be pretty good at that. Right? Scott Cunningham:Is that a pat thing? He came up with work, the work he made, Kyle Kretschman:What was the six page idea was from Jeff Bezos. And so that was, would Scott Cunningham:Those be circulated throughout the, throughout the, the, the firm, Kyle Kretschman:The stakeholders who needed to be part of the decision making they be circulated. But again, this is every, like everybody's writing six pages. PowerPoint is basically outlawed at, at Amazon. And again, that happened mid 2000. Sometimes people can Google it to find out, but that six page culture and decision making culture, just again, fit economists. Scott Cunningham:So how is a six page paper similar to the kinds of writing that, you know, you sort of associate with economists and how is it different? Kyle Kretschman:So its I'll start with the differences. So one with the six page versus like a 30 page academic, you are not going to be able to share the research process. You are not supposed to share the research process. You're supposed to share the clear recommendation and how you got to that recommendation. Right? So if you think about like a 30 page academic paper XT, be condensed down into those six pages. In my view, they're just, that's just not how the industry operates, but you probably would know better than me on that where, but so again, where it's the same is again, it's a data driven argument. The purpose of this paper, the abstract here is the hypothesis that I have that and here's how I tested it. And here's how I'm making my conclusion. So what I always found really honestly easy was I felt like I was doing the scientific process. Like I felt I, I was with business decision making it generally work within what is the hypothesis? How are we doing this? How are we testing it? What are we think some alternative conclusions could be, but what are we making towards it? So yeah, yeah. Again, it was closer to what I felt like would be a scientific paper in and that hold of day driven mindset is again, that's more, it's very common. Amazon have a common Spotify now Scott Cunningham:Has that been influential throughout, throughout industry? Has that, how have you noticed Amazon influencing Kyle Kretschman:Some Scott Cunningham:Yeah. Like most people don't understand. Kyle Kretschman:Yeah. There there's some companies who definitely have completely adopted it. There's some companies who haven't, but the, the six pager again, that's, this is not a, this isn't a concept just to economist and tech. This is the concept is, is held up as one of the key mechanisms for all of Amazon. Scott Cunningham:Mm mm Hmm. Kyle Kretschman:One other. Scott Cunningham:How often were you writing those? Kyle Kretschman:Depends on what level you were farther in my career. That's the only thing I did was write six page papers and it would be part of like, my team would help, but again, anytime you have a key business decision to be made or an update, like you're gonna be writing the six page. So yeah, it's again, the farther, the more seniority you have though, the more that becomes your job is to communicate side and guide through these business decisions. Scott Cunningham:Do they, to you, Kyle Kretschman:They belong to the team because it's always Scott Cunningham:Put 'em on a, you can't they're like proprietary though to Amazon. Kyle Kretschman:Oh, correct. Yeah. No, they, they're not publicly available. They're Scott Cunningham:Proprietary. Like it must is it what's that feel like to do something? What's it, what's it feel like to, to do something that creative in that kind of like scientific that's siloed within the firm? Does that feel strange? Kyle Kretschman:No, it didn't. Because what it enables is to be able to work on some of the hardest questions without having to worry about without having to worry about com communication strategies or right. For press release. So no, it felt like we were able, and this is going back to like some of the things that pat and we did at Amazon make successful. We worked on some of the hardest problems at Amazon from a very early stage because we said that it wouldn't be publicly available. Right. So that's gonna do that. And Scott Cunningham:That's been a key part. Yeah. Because okay. I get it. Okay. That, that makes a lot of sense. Yeah. So who did you discover? You were, go ahead. Sorry, Kyle. Kyle Kretschman:No, I was gonna say maybe the last me to highlight. Cause again, I, I, we could probably spend this whole interview on this, but the, the other key mechanism that pat pioneered was the proliferation of economists as a job family was not pat saying and us saying, go do this. And I can give through my own personal example. It was the other business executives, seeing the measurement, seeing the results on product, just saying, okay, I want that. So it really was a demand, AKA demand, internal demand for more economists, that was gonna say, I want this with my business decision making process and want these people who can do this and collaborate across the difference. It was not a, oh, we're gonna put economist in the siloed function that everybody's gonna come here. And that was, that was my story. But the very first year I worked on projects directly for the consumer CFO, basically the whole year. It wasn't necessarily by design, but it was what happened. And at the end of the year, year and a half, the, the VP of finance said, come over here and do this with me and come build, come build an economics team and an economics function here within my organization. And that's really is again, that's the real key was it was business decision makers, demanding the ability to understand this and demanding the skill set, just like they would data science, machine learning because of demonstrated value. Scott Cunningham:What were they witnessing with their own eyes that was so compelling that they would Inc that it would increase demand. Kyle Kretschman:So both I'll call it like ad hoc economic analysis on maybe big strategy projects, but also then the introduction of econometric systems into product. Scott Cunningham:Mm. What does that mean? Introduction of econometric systems into products. Kyle Kretschman:So say you have a product that is gonna, let's go back to the recommended system. And I use that again as an abstract, but within there you might make a change to it and you might make a change with the recommender system. That's gonna cause a treatment effect. Right. So, okay. So we can do that one off to estimate that, but you could also then build an economic system. That's gonna measure those treatment effects and changes like an AB platform or things like that. So maybe people might be more common and familiar with like experimental platforms. This would also be then econom. This would be sub out the AB part of it and sub in an economic model, that's going to be doing always on measurement sometimes at a, you know, service level. So sometimes within like individual pages, sometimes it's gonna be at a monthly level, but the integration of econometric models into the product. Scott Cunningham:Right, right. Wow. So how are you a different economist because of that experience at Amazon, if you had to guess, what was it the treatment effect? Kyle Kretschman:Oh, it mean it was, it was incredibly formative because it to tie like it put the fit together with the application to where I could understand and really to where it is, my job is to take a business question, turn it into a scientific process that can be solved with econometrics. And then also be thinking about, is this a problem that needs a scalable solution? Right. So, so Amazon taught me business integration taught me so many different languages, taught me leadership and management taught me how to work with stakeholders in collaborative ways, but then even more so how to deliver the value through econometric measurement, both again, as I said, not only, not only just in ad hoc research papers or one off analysis, but also then where does this fit directly within the products that we build in tech? Scott Cunningham:Yeah. So where'd you go, seems like people don't stay very long in tech. That's like normal. Whereas like, is, is that right? People kind of like, it, it's less normal to stay your whole career at Amazon unless is that wrong or, Kyle Kretschman:I mean, it's got it still do. So it's probably tough to say that because really the, the field started, like you said, really proliferated in 2012. So I stayed at Amazon for six years and I thought I'd be staying even longer. But Spotify came with the opportunity to one work on something I care very deeply about, which is the music industry. I'm a huge music fan. They also came with the idea to build again. So, you know, that was the part that really enticed me was Spotify did not have any PhD economists who were in an and, and economist roles. They had like one in a data science role, but they didn't have the structured economic discipline that they were seeing that Amazon was proliferating. And also then going into like Uber, Airbnb and the other tech companies. And so they said, can you build again? Kyle Kretschman:And I said, yeah, I'm, I'm excited to build. And then last one, all these there's definitely personal considerations here too. And Spotify just really did a great job showing how the company as a whole has Swedish cultures and values. And at the time I had a nine month old and they said, this is a great place to come be a father with the balance and that, and I said, all right, let's make the jump and come to Spotify. And so now I've been here about two years. So cuz I, I actually went to Spotify in may of 2020. Scott Cunningham:So remind me again, your job title at Spotify. Kyle Kretschman:So I'm head of economics. Scott Cunningham:Is, is that the, is that, is that like chief economist? I, I feel like I see different, different job titles and I don't know exactly what, what everything, Kyle Kretschman:Yeah. It, it it's on the path to it. So I'm, I'm the highest ranking PhD economist at Spotify. Scott Cunningham:I see. Okay. I've been there for two years. Okay, go ahead. Sorry. Kyle Kretschman:Yeah. Cause again, that's what I was brought into build was to build, like we did at Amazon was overall integration of PhD economists within the different business units. Scott Cunningham:So this is the part I'm, I'm having some hard time, like, you know, putting, visualizing or putting in my own words. What exactly will it look like if you have been successful in five years at that goal and what would it look like if you had been a complete, complete bust? What are the two things that are like empirical that I would be able to, to observe? Kyle Kretschman:Yeah. A complete bust is probably that an economics discipline is not, is not part of Spotify and there's not, there's not a job family. So a complete bus would've been, I, I moved to Spotify, an economics discipline. I either in, or I'm working data science job, what success looks like is actually what we put first from a, so I'll talk about the people in process, discipline success. We, I came into was Scott Cunningham:Real quick. So Kyle Kretschman:Foundation on basically. Yeah. Scott Cunningham:So, so failure actually would mean that the economist community within Spotify just never materialized, is that what you're saying? And that, and that means like this, having groups of economists that, that think and use the kinds of training we had in graduate school, but in a way that is actually productive in the firm is, is that, is that right? Kyle Kretschman:So, so yeah, and again, that's, Scott Cunningham:The job is successful if you're able to actually create internal demand for economists. Kyle Kretschman:Yep. That's right. And that's, that's what I would say against from the process side. And then from the product side, that's using econometric research in the ways that I've been talking about it's using it both not only for individual analysis, but also then building econometric measurement systems that improve the product to get towards Spotify's mission of, of billion listeners and fans who can connect with over a million creative artists who are making a living. So that's, so it's a combination, it's the combination people process. Do we have the people set up? Do we have this integrated system of economists working alongside all these different types of stakeholders along with the product side of, do we have these measurement techniques that we're applying in a way that is important to Spotify's not only Spotify's business, but all the stakeholders that have an interest in Bon life. Scott Cunningham:So I feel like, you know, I think to academics that, that, and, and maybe even to some degree students, maybe I'm, maybe I'm completely an outlier here and I'm wrong, but you know, I think there's this like really shallow is a negative word. It, I mean, shallow, literally more and just like, it's just the thinnest knowledge possible of what exactly, you know, the, the, the core skillset of a successful economist is in tech. You know, and for many people they think, I think they, they think it's such a primitive level. They're like, it needs to be somebody that can code, you know, it's a data scientist, but, but it, but it, but that's not what I associate with economics. Right. So what would you, what would you articulate? It is, Kyle Kretschman:So it's the ability to do econom applied econometric research. That's applied to business problems. Mm. So within that is coding. Yes. Scott Cunningham:Right, right. Within that is coding. Kyle Kretschman:I, the vast majority, I won't say everyone, but the vast majority of tech economists are gonna have some level of coding and maybe they're not coding anymore. Like I'm not doing any coding anymore, but like they, they have that ability. So that's just again, that's, that's a skillset, but the real ability is doing long-term economic research. Because the questions that we get asked are very hard and difficult, and they are maybe in the academic setting, maybe they are publication worthy, takes that take three years, four years to actually solve with the right model. Yeah. But it's the ability to take that three year research roadmap

In this week's episode of The Mixtape with Scott, I had the pleasure of interviewing Kyle Kretschman, Head of Economics at Spotify. It was a great opportunity for me because Kyle is one of the first economists I have spoken to who didn't enter tech as a senior economist (e.g., John List, Susan Athey, Michael Schwarz, Steve Tadelis). Kyle entered tech straight out of graduate school. He spent much of his career at Amazon, a firm that has more PhD economists than can be easily counted. Under Pat Bajari's leadership there, Kyle grew and his success was noticed such that he was then hired away by Spotify to lead up their economics team. At the end of the interview, I asked Kyle an economics article that has haunted his memories and he said “BLP”, which is affectionate shorthand that “Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium” by Berry, Levinsohn and Pakes 1995 Econometrica goes by. I really enjoyed this interview, and despite the less than ideal sound quality at times, I hope you will too.But before I conclude, I wanted to share some more of my thoughts. This series I've been doing on “economists in tech”, which has included interviews with John List, Susan Athey, Michael Schwarz and Steve Tadelis, comes from a complex place inside me. First there is the sheer curiosity I have about it as a part of the labor market for PhD economists. As I have said before on here, the tech sector has exploded in the last decade and the demand for PhD economists has grown steadily year over year. Tech demand selects on PhD economists with promising academic style research inclinations. There is substantial positive selection in this market as firms seek out strong candidates can be produce value for them. This is reflected in both junior market salaries, but also senior. Job market candidates are economists with technical skills in econometrics and economic theory, not to mention possess competent computer programming skills in at least one but often several popular coding languages. They are also candidates who were often entertaining careers within academia at the time they entered tech, and in those academic careers, they envisioned themselves writing academic articles about research they found personally and scientifically important and meaningful. Going into tech, therefore, would at least seem to involve choice that may go far beyond merely that of taking one job over another. It may involve a choice between a career in academia and a career outside it, which for many of us can feel permanent, as though we are leaving academia. And for many economists, it may be the first time they have ever contemplated such a thing. If they do internalize the story that way, if they do see taking a job in tech as “leaving academia”, then I can imagine that for at least some economists, that may be complicated, at least. But there's another reason I have been wanting to talk to economists in tech and that is I am very concerned about the welfare of our PhD students. In a recent article published in the Journal of Economic Literature, economists interviewed graduate students in top economics programs. They found there incredibly high rates of depression, anxiety, loneliness and even suicidality. This is a common feature of graduate studies, but it is interesting that PhD economists have incredibly good employment opportunities and yet the depression and anxiety plague there too. One of the things that struck me in that study was the disconnect between what graduate students felt about their work and what their advisors felt about their own work. Many students, for instance, do not feel they are properly supported by advisers, do not believe their advisers care about their research success and do not even care about them as a person. Whereas most Americans (and faculty) feel that their work has a positive impact on society, only 20% of PhD students in economics feel that way. (I discussed the article as well as my own research on the mental health of PhD students here.) I suppose part of me feels a great sigh of relief to see the labor market for PhD economists expanding in light of those troubling statistics. If students know that life is full of infinite possibilities, then perhaps they can begin to process earlier what they want to do in the short years they have on this small spinning ball of rock we call Earth. If students do not in the end want to become professors, if they do not have the opportunities to become one, they should know that there is no “failure” involved there. Careers are just that — careers. They do not tell us who we are. The sooner a student can detach from the unhelpful story that our value is linked to a vita listing our accomplishments, the sooner they can begin their own life work of choosing their meaning. Can having more labor market opportunities with more employers competing for them help do that? Well no, not really. At least, not exactly. It can disrupt certain equilibrium, but then the new equilibrium can just as easily cover that up too. Still, I do like the idea that to keep students in academia, universities and departments must fight harder for them, pay attention to them, and invest in them as people. I like the idea that students have more options and that the options are diverse. Will it help their depression? Well, that's another matter, as that's complex. And presumably the economists in the survey I mentioned were themselves well aware of the career options they had since they were coming from the nation's top 10 PhD programs in economics. I suppose my point is that ultimately, the burden of life really cannot be resolved with money or career. We are trained to look there because we have boundless appetites. But ultimately the hard work of navigating life can only be helped so much by a job. We must still decide for ourselves what meaning we will choose for ourselves. But one thing I know, and one thing which I think our profession is profoundly bad at saying out loud, is that if we make our identity connected to vitas, we will not just be miserable, we will be hopeless, and probably poisoned. Such a mindset leads to endless laps on a brutalizing treadmill of meaningless performance in which a person chases for first place in a race they don't remember signing up for and which they cannot win. They compare themselves with others running, not knowing that they too are brutalized by their own treadmill, not realizing that it is impossible to catch up with someone else as there is always someone else ahead of us. The sooner we learn that the joy we long for will not come when we get a top 5, the sooner we can look elsewhere. It has taken me many years to relearn a lesson I learned decades ago — I am whole now. I am complete now. I still run, and I still chase, but I am not chasing completeness. I am not chasing my own wholeness. Being whole and complete has nothing to do with a career. Careers are ultimately orthogonal to hope, which does not mean they do not matter — they absolutely matter. But if asked to deliver meaning, we will find that our jobs are as weak as wet spaghetti at such a task as that.So, I suppose in some ways I simply want to announce — there are incredible opportunities for economists inside government, commerce and academia. But the weight of this life is not likely to be lighter in any one of them, for the weight we feel in life is largely self imposed, inside us, in the stories we tell about who we are and for many of us who we are not. Those stories are real, because we feel them and because we believe them, but they are not true. All stories are wrong, but some are useful, and the story that our lives can only matter if we have certain types of jobs or certain types of success, while it may be useful to getting a paper out or accomplishing something important, in a much bigger sense it is hollow at best and pure poison at worst. TRANSCRIPTThis transcript will be updated once the more complete transcript is finished; for now it was transcribed using voice-to-text machine learning.Kyle Kretschman:Might not have prepared myself well enough to be attractive for some of the most pop most top tier schools. Scott Cunningham:In this week's episode of the mix tape with Scott, I had the pleasure of interviewing Kyle kretchma the head of economics at the streaming platform. Spotify. Before I dive into the interview, though, I wanted to give you a bit of a heads up about the sound quality. Unfortunately, the sound quality in the interview on Kaza side is a bit muffled. We discussed refilming. It tried to find a way to tweak it, but there were certain constraints on the actual sound itself that kept us from being able to do it. And we didn't feel that refilming, it would be good because we thought that the interview had a lot of serendipitous kind of spontaneous tangents and things spoken about that. We thought students and people in academia would want to know, would need maybe even need to know. And I doubted that I could recreate it, cuz I don't even know why it happened. Scott Cunningham:So I'm gonna post a video version of this at my subs, for those who feel that a video version would help them kind of follow it in so far as the audio might be at times challenging. So check out the subst for those of you that wanna watch, watch it instead of just listen to it, hopefully that'll help. I won't say much here by way of introduction, except to say a few things about Kyle, because I wanted to let Kyle tell you his story in his own words, cuz it's his story to tell. And it's an interesting story. Kyle's a PhD economist though from the university of Texas Austin, which is down the road from where I live and work at Baylor, where he wrote on topics in graduate school and applied econometrics, empirical industrial organization or empirical IO and public choice after graduating, Kyle went to Amazon, not academia. Scott Cunningham:In fact, given we might start the boom of tech hiring PhD economists in the early to mid 20 2010s. You could say Kyle maybe was sort of one of the earlier hires among that second wave of PhD economists that went there. He worked for several years at Amazon before being hired away by Spotify to head up and lead a new economics team there, perhaps this is part of a broader trend of tech firms building up more internal teams, not just of data scientists, but like Amazon departments of economists who knows recall though from an earlier interview with Susan athe where, when I asked Susan why she said pat Maja had done something amazing at Amazon, she said he made economists productive. And in time he made many of them productive and very in productive from what I've been able to follow. And Kyle is from what I can gather someone whose skills matured and deepened under the leadership of Papa jar at Amazon and other leaders at and other economists at Amazon. Scott Cunningham:And he was ultimately hunted down by a major tech term to create an economics team there I'm by no means an expert on the labor market for PhD economists. I just have been very intrigued and curious by the, the, the Mar the labor market for PhD economists in tech, because well, partly because of realizing first that cause of inference was really valued in tech, but then to sort of realize that there was just this very large community of economists there, but I don't think it's controversial to say over the last 10 to 15 years, the tech industry really has been disruptive in the labor market for PhD economists. They continue to hire at the junior and senior market in larger and larger volume selecting more and more on people who likely would've gone into academia into tenure track or tenured positions. They pay very high wages, some of the very, some of the highest wages in the country, both at the junior level and especially at the, at the higher end at the, at the more advanced levels, people can earn compensation packages by the, in the, by the time they're in their thirties, that many of us didn't know were possible. Scott Cunningham:It's in my mind, historically novel, and I might be wrong about this, but it, it seems historically novel that the PhD economists who likely would've produced academic research papers in tenured and tenure track jobs have begun to branch out of academia, but maintain those skills and maintain that research output. It's partly driven best. I can tell, buy Amazon, I might be wrong, but by Amazon and paja, as well as Jeff Bezos own view, that economists are what I guess we would just say value added for many firms. Therefore I'm continuing to wanna speak with economists in tech to help better trace out the story. This interview with Kyle follows on the back of earlier interviews with people in tech like John list, you know, a, a distinguished professor of economics at the university of Chicago, but also the former chief economist that Lyft and Uber now Walmart Michael Schwartz, former professor of economics at Harvard. Now, chief economist at Microsoft and Susan athe former chief economist at Microsoft professor at Stanford and now chief economist at the DOJ. I hope you find this to be an interesting dive into the industry. Learn a little bit more about economists there, but by, by learning the about one particular important economist, there a, a young man named Kyle crutch, head of economics at Spotify, my name's Scott Cunningham. And this is the mix tape with Scott. Scott Cunningham:Well, it's my pleasure today to have, as my guest on the mix tape with Scott, Kyle crutch, Kyle, thanks so much for being on the call. Kyle Kretschman:Hey Scott, thanks for having me really appreciate the time to talk Scott Cunningham:Well before we get started with your career and, and everything. I was wondering if you could just tell us your name and your title and where you work. Kyle Kretschman:Sure. Yeah. As you said, I'm Kyle kretchma, I'm the head of economics at Spotify, Scott Cunningham:Head of economics at Spotify. Awesome. Okay. I can't wait to talk. So let me, let me, let's get started. I was wondering if you could just tell me where you grew up. Kyle Kretschman:Sure. So most of the time I grew up in outside of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, about an hour north of the city, real real small town probably had one stop light. And maybe the, the funny story that I can share is what I took my wife there. She asked where's the Starbucks. And I said, no Starbucks here. There's no Scott Cunningham:Starbucks. Kyle Kretschman:Yeah. So pretty small town called Chippewa township in Pennsylvania. Scott Cunningham:Oh, okay. Is that near like Amish stuff or anything like that? Kyle Kretschman:No, that's the other side of the state. So this would be Western Pennsylvania about near the end of the turnpike, about five minutes from the Ohio border. Scott Cunningham:Oh, okay. Okay. You said, but you, did you mention, you kind of grew up in different places? Kyle Kretschman:Yeah. So before that, my father worked in civil engineering and so would do build roads and bridges basically across every, across the nation. So I was actually born in Louisiana, lived there with, I think for a whole two, three weeks. I don't quite remember. Cause I was pretty young obviously, but then Michigan and then spent some time in Philadelphia before moving out to Pittsburgh around second grade. Scott Cunningham:Oh, that's kinda like, that's like when people described their parents being in the military, just kind of moving around a lot. Kyle Kretschman:Yeah. A little bit. So, but Scott Cunningham:Then you settled in the second grade Kyle Kretschman:That's right. Yeah. So outside of Pittsburgh and then stayed in Pittsburgh through high school and even through undergrad. Scott Cunningham:Oh, okay. Oh, you went to undergrad in Pennsylvania. Kyle Kretschman:Yeah, I did. So I went to undergrad at the university of Pittsburgh. Oh, okay. It was, yeah. If, I guess maybe continuing the story growing up in a town with no Starbucks. I was, I was pretty intrigued by going to a city. Yeah. And find out that lifestyle and yeah, we might have lived pretty close, like an hour away, but we didn't go down to the city very much. So Pittsburgh was just really, really enticing for a city to, for, to go to undergrad in. And so I basically looked at all schools that were in cities and so the proximity plus then the, the ability to just spread my wings and explore what it's like to be in a city was really, really enticing. Scott Cunningham:Did any of your friends go to pit with you? Kyle Kretschman:Yeah, so there's probably, I grew, I graduated from a class of about a little over 200 people in high school and I think there was like five or six people from high school that went to pit for my class. So definitely had some really good friends who went and kept in touch with, through undergrad. Scott Cunningham:Mm. Yeah. So it wasn't, were you sort of an early generation or you weren't, were you a first generation college student in your family or did your parents go to college Kyle Kretschman:Combination? So my dad went to Penn state civil engineer, as I mentioned, me and my mom actually graduated from undergrad the same week. So my mom went back to school later in life after me, after we went to school. And so yeah, we, we were able to celebrate graduation cuz she went to a small private school right outside of the city also. Scott Cunningham:Oh, okay. Okay. Yeah. Well, so what did you like to do in high school? Kyle Kretschman:So I played a lot of sports before high school and then I kind of switched into, and this was a traditional sports of football, basketball, baseball, but then I switched into tennis in high school. And so that kept me busy, but along with a lot of academics and really, really liked computer science. So played a lot of video games growing up, really enjoyed like that aspect in combination. Scott Cunningham:What games were your, were you, did you play on a, on a video game, plat platform? Like an Nintendo or did you play? Kyle Kretschman:Yeah, no, we played a lot of plays very much into like role playing games. Some of the arcade games like Marvel versus Capcom. So yeah. Yeah. Very, very interested in gaming. Yeah. Maybe I was a little too early for that. Cause you know, every, everybody in the 1990s was like, oh, I could make pu money playing video games, which wasn't true back, which wasn't true back then, but that's right. You know, nowadays Scott Cunningham:You can that's right. Yeah. You know, that's right. You can do it. There's all kinds of ways you can make money doing things today that nobody knew was possible 10, 10 or 15 years ago. Even Kyle Kretschman:My Scott Cunningham:That's cool. Yeah. I, I, it's funny, you know, computer games can keep a, keep a kid in high school going, you know, like especially I think they're kind of misunderstood. I, I had a lot of friends that, well, I mean, I, I, I had, when I didn't have a lot of, we moved from a small town in Mississippi to Memphis and I, those, those that first year when I didn't have a friends, I did bulletin boards and played Sierra online games like Kings quest. And it's like, it's like, you know, not intertemporal smoothing, but like inner temporal socializing, smoothing, you know, so that you just kind of get through some periods that would otherwise be a little lonelier. Kyle Kretschman:Yeah, for sure. And I mean, I mean for this audience, like most video games are some sort of form of constrained optimization. So there was, there was the inkling that I, I liked understanding how economies worked in high school through this and yeah. Going back to my mom, my mom always said like she encouraged it and she encouraged education. And there was actually kind of like that nexus, whenever I took economics in high school, it was like, oh, you know, some of these games really are full economies that are constrained and constrained in a way that you can understand and complete in, you know, under a hundred hours. Right. But there was that combination that was kind of showing itself of computer science, computer gains and economics of putting itself together. Scott Cunningham:So you were kind of thinking even in high school about economics in that kind of like, you know, optimizing something and like, like almost that modern theory that we get in graduate school. Kyle Kretschman:I think more, I had the intuition when I didn't have know how to say what it was in high school because my high school was pretty forward and that it offered both advanced computer science courses that could get you through definitely through first year of undergrad, maybe even through second year with advanced placement. And then they also offered advanced placement economics. And so I, I ended up taking advanced place in economics my junior year when most people took senior year. And so whenever I was going small Scott Cunningham:Town, even in that small town, they had, you had good your high school. Good econ. Kyle Kretschman:Yeah. It was a real, it was a really good high school that would put together good curriculum that did a lot of college preparatory work though. They, wow. They really leaned into the advanced placement, the AP courses to get students ready to go to school. Scott Cunningham:Wow. Wow. So even at, as a junior, you're taking AP econ, you know, you don't have to take AP econ. That kind of is say that, that sounds like somebody that was kind of interested in it. Kyle Kretschman:Yeah, very much. Yeah. And again, as soon as I, I definitely didn't get to the graduate level of understanding, like, you know, LaGrange multipliers, but the, the micro and macro sequence just made intuitive sense to me. It was like, it was kind of where I was like, yeah, this fit. And this is how I think. And some people might criticize me now that I think too much like an economist. Right. Like, but at the same time, it just like, it started to put together that language and even more so some of the frameworks that really kind of drew me into it. Scott Cunningham:Well, did you, did you, did you notice that you had this interest in computer science and this interest in economics and that they might be one, did you get a feeling that they could be in conversation with each other? Kyle Kretschman:Not Scott Cunningham:At first, our ancestors a hundred years ago. Didn't, you know, those economists didn't think that way, but now it's just so natural for this generation of economists to be almost one half, you know, one third mathematician, one third economist, one third computer scientist. Kyle Kretschman:Yeah. So not at first, but I, I feel like I made have like lucked into it, honestly, because whenever I chose to go to Pitt, I chose to start as computer science because I knew what that pass was. I was inspired by my older brother, the great teacher in high school. And like, I was definitely like, okay, a software software development engineer career is great. It's cutting edge. It's there. But after probably like the first year, it just didn't feel that end state didn't feel right. And so I made kind of the hard decision to choose, honestly, to switch into economics as a major, because I wasn't sure what the end state would be, where I was going with it. Cuz it was definitely felt more amorphous, you know, it's a social science, so yeah. It didn't feel like it was gonna be as clear cut and as, and have as much certainty. But pretty quickly, like after a year was like, oh, well we're doing, we're using E views at the time. All right, this is coding. I know how to do this. This is great. Right. And starting, starting to see some of that in undergrad was like the, kind of the aha moment that like, yeah, this is, this is a place where I can apply this love of coding and problem solving, but problems and solutions that I find really, really hard and interesting. Scott Cunningham:It was because of econometrics though. It was in that. Kyle Kretschman:Exactly. Yeah, yeah. Scott Cunningham:Yeah. Wow. That's, that's really interesting because you know, I think it's still the case that, you know, you can easily end up with an econometrics class that remains purely theoretical and doesn't end up, you know, exposing the student with a lot of actual coding, but it sounds like your professors were, were getting you into working with data. Kyle Kretschman:That's correct. Yeah. Both. Both within the class. So like I said, we used E views at the time. Yeah. And again, kind of like learning as a go, I, I don't think I really knew what I was doing whenever we were typing commands and E views, but the computer scientist in me was like, okay, well this is a function. I know functions. Didn't put outputs, but definitely didn't understand necessarily things that were going under the hoods or you know, all of the theory that goes with it. Oh, right, right, right. So it was, you Scott Cunningham:Knew the coding part, you knew you were coding, but you did, but like the, the actual statistical modeling was kind of the new part, but that was a way for you to kind of engage it a little bit. Kyle Kretschman:Yep, exactly. Scott Cunningham:Oh, that's interesting. That's interesting. Well, so what were you gonna have to choose between a computer science and an econ major did or did you end up doing both? Kyle Kretschman:So I chose an econ major, but then I had what I would call basically minors or concentrations in computer science, but then also in statistics and also in math, because once, once I had an internship at a bank and was doing data entry and I was like, eh, I don't think this is what I wanna use my economics degree for. Yeah. I had a couple professors at pit named Steve Houston and Frank Giani who brought me on as a research assistant, an undergrad to start being part of some of like their survey projects and data collection. And even, even one of 'em I don't, Steve was crazy, but he even let me TA classes on undergrad, so oh, wow. But he kinda, I mean, I, I say that jokingly because it was formative for me, it was like, okay, this is great. How do I do more of this? And he was like, well, you go get your econ PhD. And I was like, so I can be a teacher with computer science and doing economics altogether. He goes, yeah, let's do that. And so it was with the help and support of some of these really good professors and education to kind push me on this path consider to get Ancon PhD. Scott Cunningham:Mm. And that's when you were like, so how, how, what, what year would you have been in your program? Kyle Kretschman:Probably. I think I was in my junior year where I was starting to explore this. And then in my senior year is where I was like, okay, I'm actually gonna be doing more more of this and applying to grad school because going back, as I said, I entered with some credits. So my senior year was very, I didn't need a full course load. So I was looking for other things to keep me busy, which maybe, maybe that's one of the themes of this conversation is I kinda kind of like the variety and really have variety seeking behavior too. Yeah, Scott Cunningham:Yeah, yeah. Yeah. So you graduate, was there like a field that you were mostly interested in? Kyle Kretschman:I thought I would be going into macro economics. Macro. Yep. Yeah, because Steve worked on the council of economic advisors and I was really inspired by that and the application of economics within, within policy and just again, always applied economics, not necessarily theoretical. So yeah. Then again was, that would be sort of like labor and macro was like the initial idea, but finally Scott, I didn't do all my homework and like, think about like what grad school looked like or all it looked like. I kind of went a little bit more naive than I think other people with, again, ideas of how I could become like a teacher, an educator with some of these tools versus like how disciplined and single thread you need to be on research to be within an econ PhD program and to see that. Scott Cunningham:So you, so you kind of were like, so when you were thinking about graduate schools, what, how, what, what did you sort of, can you walk me through like what you were thinking and how you went about trying to apply to graduate school and where you ultimately chose? Kyle Kretschman:Yeah, sure. So applied probably the, the top 10 and the top 10 probably said no thanks. But also then was targeting specific schools that we had relationships with that I knew would provide computer science and macros. So university at the Iowa at the time, this was 2000 and had a really strong macro program. And then also at the university of Texas with Dean Corbe there, they also had one in Russ Cooper. And so those were like the two that I was like targeting at outside of what the top schools were. But yeah, as I, I kind of mentioned, I, I might not have prepared myself well enough to be attractive for some of the most pop with top tier schools because kind of, you know, as I said, bounced around and would be yeah, a little bit working on it a little bit different things and have computer science versus being solely focused on like economics and math and things that might be more of what the top tier schools were looking for. Scott Cunningham:Yeah. Yeah. You know, you know, it's like the, I mean, I'm the same way. I didn't ha have any econ classes in college. I was a English major, but the, the, the diff there's so many students that sort of seem to almost for whatever reason, know a lot sooner what they want to do and then like make those choices. And then there's just many of us that are, you know, in a process of search yeah. That when you're in a process of search, well, you, you know, by definition, that's like you're using that time to search. Kyle Kretschman:That's exactly right. As Scott Cunningham:Opposed to saying, I've gotta take, I've gotta become a triple major computer science, math, econ, and have to do like, you know, these set of these set of steps that, you know, there's no way I could even have known to do it unless somebody had told me it's weird. I mean, it's just funny how the little things can have such big repercussions for your whole life, but it's, but it, it worked out great. So you end up, where do you end up going? Kyle Kretschman:I went to the university of Texas at Austin. Scott Cunningham:Yeah. Yeah. What year was that? And Kyle Kretschman:So, so this would've been 2002. Scott Cunningham:Oh, okay. So you go to oh 6 0 7. Kyle Kretschman:Okay. And so ended up working. So I ended up working a lot with Jason, Ava. Yeah. And who came in and became the, the head of the department. Yeah. Applied econometrician who just did an amazing job going back to whenever I said, I didn't know how things worked under the hood, in those formulas. He didn't even let us use those formulas. So anytime we were doing applied econometric econometrics with them, not only we learning to teach, we're learning the theory, but he said, you have to code it yourself. You have to do the matrix algebra, you have to calculate standard errors. You can't really call those functions. So that was probably again, that wasn't until the third year, but yeah, in the first year to go back a little bit, Scott Cunningham:I, that played to your strengths though. I bet that played to your strengths. Yeah. Just at the end of the day, wanting to be someone that, that wrote down the raw code. Kyle Kretschman:That's exactly right. And, but the first year I didn't play my strength. Yeah. Yeah. So the first year I felt, I felt a little bit outta water and I was like, this is, I remember when we were proving what local non association. And I was like, this is, this is one hard, but also like, again, going back to like, that is this actually how I wanna be spending my time and right. I, I was like, yes, I do. But I was like, I, I knew that I needed to get to those applied applications. Yeah. And so that's, again, why I was thankful to be able to work with Jason and Steve Trayo and a few other, they applied econometricians at Texas that really encouraged me to explore starting in the second year. They didn't us like pin it down. And so I, I thought I, at the second year I worked like wrote the first, a paper on school choice and trying to see if I could find some sort of instrument on school selection on public versus private. And again, so that led to like that idea of like applied econometrics was really, really the thing that like, I was like, okay, now this fits again. Once we got into second and third year Scott Cunningham:Was, was picking up that intuition, that kind of like labor style identification, causal inference kind of approach. Was that something you picked up from Jason or was that just like from your labor people? Oh, okay. Kyle Kretschman:Yeah. That's yeah. From Jason and Steve a lot. They did a great job of doing that. And yeah. So then, yeah. Then I, then I threw in, I knew threw a little bit of a switch in there also, and my co-author Nick master and Arti and closest friend and classmate in Texas was very theoretical and very interested in applied empirical IO. And so we started working in that field also together. And so then I got to work with the Han me vet and Ken Hendrix on using empirical IO. So, oh, wow. Yeah. And so again, Scott Cunningham:This is the more structural, more structural econometric. So you've got this like reduced, you've kind of got this like traditional labor reduced form type of, part of your brain. And then you've got this empirical IO structural part of your brain kind of emerging at the same time. Kyle Kretschman:That's right. That's exactly right. Yeah. And then we threw, we threw everybody for a loop. I also saying we wanted to study study politics and how money turns into vote using both using all these tools. So yeah, I can see here kind of saying in hindsight, like it all makes sense in this story that I'm telling you, but at the time it was more of what you were talking about. It was searching. It was, I wanna be working on really interesting applied problems. I love the toolkit that economics provides in framing. And yeah. I have to be coding to be able to utilize these tools that I've had built up in the past. Scott Cunningham:Yeah, yeah. Yeah. So, so matching with Nick was really important Kyle Kretschman:Very much. Scott Cunningham:And why, if you hadn't to match with Nick, I mean, just kind of outta curiosity, if you could articulate the value added of that whole partnership, what was it? Kyle Kretschman:Yes. Sure. So, so we matched basically from math camp going into, going into the first year because Nick came both from the pure math and physics background and also had some experience in the air force. So the air force was sending him to Texas and he, we were, we were definitely, we definitely didn't have a lot of vend overlap on the fact. He's like, well, I would have the intuition and some of the computer skills, Nick would have the theoretical math skills, Scott Cunningham:The theoretical math skills. Yep. Kyle Kretschman:And then we just had, we had the common factor that we wanted to work hard together and learn together and we're willing to, we're willing to intellectually hash out really tough things together. Yeah. So yeah, he huge credit to him through being able to put up with me. And he says, he says the same thing once in a while. But again, matching with somebody that had the, the more real analysis proof based understanding of math was so valuable for me. And especially, Scott Cunningham:I think some empirical IO, especially empirical IO, just being able to, you know, think like an economist in the area of IO is thinking real deep about, you know, a rich set of models and modeling approaches. Kyle Kretschman:That's Scott Cunningham:Exactly right. That's definitely not what you're learning in your econometrics classes, even though they might go together. Kyle Kretschman:Yep. So, so yeah, it was just a, it was a really good match from the beginning. And so we complimented each other and we're, we're able to build a strong enough relationship to be able to be able to hash out, have really long nights yelling at each other, we say in the office, but it never, it was always for educational purposes and lifting each other up. Scott Cunningham:Was that different than what you thought grad school was gonna be like? Kyle Kretschman:Yeah. So I knew the research component a little bit. I just didn't under understand the unstructured research on how that was gonna go and like the cadence and where it was gonna and how that was gonna be so required to develop your own viewpoint. Yeah. I thought it would be more directed cuz as a 22 year old, that was the experience I had generally. So that was the big one was the undirected and I liked it, but it was also very difficult. Scott Cunningham:How would you describe what you're talking about to your college self? Who kind of like, you know, he, he doesn't really, he doesn't even have the vocabulary for what you're describing. What would you say? It was like, Kyle Kretschman:I think you use a good term. You have to be not only wanting to search, you have to be willing to search, but you also, then you have to put in the guardrails yourself to keep it focused because you're not necessarily gonna have those external guardrails that you will have from an alternative path of going to either like a master's program that's gonna be more structured or going in an industry or going to get a job. Right. Like I mentioned at a bank for like a 22 year old where entry level jobs are gonna be more structured. Yeah. So yeah, I just, I, I probably knew it, but I didn't know what it meant to be and what, what it meant to experience it. Scott Cunningham:So how did Jason and, and Steve kind of, and any other faculty, how, how did they, how did they, I, so I did this interview with Susan athe and she was saying that, you know, the amazing thing that pat Maja did at Amazon was he managed to make economists productive, which kind it was kind of a weird, weird way of saying it. And so in a way it could, in a way you could imagine a department that sort of has like a, you know, this idea of like research has got to come. There's like a, there's like a, a journey that a graduate student has to come on to just to basically make a decision to be a researcher. Yeah. You know, and you could imagine that creating the conditions for that is, is involves faculty member, doing stuff that's not necessarily obvious. What, how did they, how do you think they contributed to that for you personally? Kyle Kretschman:For me personally, at the time, again, it goes back to encourage the exploration versus mandating or saying that I need to be on one path. So like even Nick and I at the time explore the idea of a private company and how, what, what that would be into like pinching, pitching a venture capitalist on, on that. So all those things, again, in grad school, they, they were encouraged, but they weren't structured at the time. Yeah. So yeah, I can, I can, I understand Susan's comment because I was, I was one of those economists who started pretty early with pat and we, we have a lot of good mechanisms that we've learned and built at Amazon when I was there at the time through pat, through lay other people who were willing to make the jump into this entrepreneurial space that hit the election and the, of coalesce of economists doing open book, empirical research, along with data science. Right. Just becoming more and more valuable and applicable, but is kind of what Susan piloting that we can, we can talk more about if you Scott Cunningham:Want. Yeah. I do wanna talk about that. I wanna talk about the, the decision though, you know, to, to be, because you, you sort of started off in college, you know, you said things like, oh, you can become an educator and then you've gone in this non-academic direction and you know, it, it, and that's like a, that's a more common story now, you know, right. Of, of top talent, very talented PhDs that you could have easily seen 20 years ago, would've been an academia. Their counterfactuals are, are following you. And so, you know, it's, it's a, it's a big part of our, you know, collective story as economists that this, this new labor market that didn't, that didn't exist historically now exists and draws in so much talent. And I was just curious in a way you're kind of like a, a first generation person like that, you know, when you think about it, right. Cause text's not very old, right. Facebook, Facebook, what it's like 2007. And so, you know, so you've got this, you, you, you've got this, this chance to kind of say like, it must have been, so I don't wanna put words in your mouth, but I guess I was just wondering, what were the feelings like as you considered not taking an academic track and when did it start to be something in your mind that you thought that's gonna be something I'm explore Kyle Kretschman:Probably pretty early, because if you wanna really trace the roots of like tech economists back, it starts obviously with Hal varying at Google and me and Nick, actually, we, we sent an email to Hal, probably 2008 saying, do you have any, have any use for some summer interns who can do some empirical IO? And he said, no, not, not at this time, but so, but he Scott Cunningham:Answered the email. Kyle Kretschman:He did answer the email. Yeah. It was nice, nice of him to answer. Cause we knew he was probably pretty busy, but so it, honestly, when Amazon started hiring economists, I was probably searching for about a year to move into tech. If you wanna move back to the decision point coming outta grad school, honestly it was a challenging labor or a challenging job market for me, somebody who is a lover variety, who is working on empirical IO problems with campaign, policy, campaign, finance reform, policy recognition. That's, that's not fitting a lot of the standard application process. Yeah. Once again, that's so that's probably a theme for me. And again, at the time it was hard. I was, I was in the running for jobs at VA wakes force that I thought would be really good fit because they're the EDU the emphasis would be on education with the research ability to do research and work on problems that were more widely probably policy oriented. Yeah. But neither neither of them came through. So I just always knew that I industry was gonna be an option. And so Scott Cunningham:What year is this? What, Kyle Kretschman:What, what this would've been in this would've been in Scott Cunningham:20 11, 20 11. Okay. Oh, so you moved through the, you moved through the program or kind of relatively quickly. Oh 7, 4, 4, 5 years. Okay. Kyle Kretschman:Five years. Yeah. Five years. Yeah. Oh six to 11. Okay. But so for about a year, about six. Yeah. Yeah. And so starting in 2013 is whenever I started applying to the first tech job as a data scientist and got it went great until I talked to the VP who was a business part, like pure business person. When I was talking to the hiring manager at the time, it was a company who was providing college counseling as a software service. And so they would do this at their, their clients were both for profit and not for profit companies. And we were talking like, we'd get into details about treatment effects models and how we could measure the impact of their intervention. It went great. But then I had the flyout scheduled, but then the interview with the VP, he said, well, how am I gonna monetize your algorithm? Right. And I was like, I'm not sure I know what algorithm means, but right. I, I wasn't prepared for that language and that application and how you turn econometric modeling and measurement into, into business impact at the time. Yes. Right. So spent another year looking around with different opportunities like that and honestly learning again. So, so whenever Amazon, so this would've been in 2014 and then Amazon was hiring its first big cohort with pat. So this was a cohort that was about, I think there was about 13 of us. It was a no brainer. Kyle Kretschman:Whenever, whenever we did the interview, it just was like, all right, this is exactly right for me. I was hop. I was hoping it was right on the other side. And I could probably tell you some funny stories about the interview process, but I was like, this is, this is what's meant to be. Yeah. So it, it, it was like a 10 year journey from 2004 when I switched outta computer science into 2014 being like this, just this fit. Scott Cunningham:Right. Right. Right. So outta curiosity, you know, is, is there, is there something that you think is supposed to be learned by the fact that when you were on the job market and you had that interview with that, that gig and the, and you get to the VP and he articulates questions that are not traditional econ questions, or even econometrics questions like business profitability to act, it's kind of ironic, isn't it like to everybody? That's not an economist. That's actually what we, they think we do, you know, is like, they think we do all that stuff. And then they don't know that we're like, like you said, you know, trying to set up a Lara and solve, solve it, like what's a Lara, but do you think your competition at that time did know how to answer questions like that? Like non-economists in those positions Kyle Kretschman:Probably at an inflection point. Yeah. Because this is the same time. Wherever machine learning is becoming more common toolkit with an industry. So there would be like machine learning algorithms that are designed for, you know, prediction, problem sequencing, anything like that that are specifically designed to be used in a business setting to monitor. Scott Cunningham:So they, they not only know machine learning, it's like, they also can kind of immediately articulate why this would be profitable. Kyle Kretschman:I think so. Yeah, because again, the computer, so it's like in learning the language and this is the language that would probably be more understood within a machine learning computer science version is okay, well, I'm gonna use this to change the recommendation engine right. Is very common one. Yeah. That's obviously gonna be, so how are you gonna monetize it? I'm gonna improve the match and the recommendation engine it's gonna have this. So I think at the time there was a little bit of it, but, you know, hopefully I think, I think I learned pretty quick that you can, you can use econometrics in a similar vein. As I said, it's a flavor of data science, Scott Cunningham:Have you had to become a blue collar machine learner? Kyle Kretschman:I've had to understand it, but not, I think you mean by blue collar, you mean like implementing it Scott Cunningham:And yeah, I just, when I, I usually say blue collar in the sense of like, you know, you, don't like, you know, you basically are picking up these skills, but you weren't like, you know, you didn't get a PhD in computer science. You know, Kyle Kretschman:The answer was then that answer is definitely yes. So like as we, as our cohort and as we grew, the economics discipline at Amazon, that was a big part of it is how one could we bring in some machine learning scientist help educate and teach us. Mm. And yeah. So, and even in, sometimes in lecture style, we would do that because it was so important, but then even more so learning to so that you can interact with different stakeholders specifically, like machine learning scientists. Mm. Then understanding when you can actually implement it and marry it within the econometric models was definitely a huge part of the education process. Scott Cunningham:So you go to Amazon, is that right? That's like your first entry into tech Kyle Kretschman:That's Scott Cunningham:Right. Is Amazon, what's your title? Kyle Kretschman:So Scott Scott Cunningham:A scientist or economist. Kyle Kretschman:I, it was something like business intelligence engineer. There wasn't an economist job family. There was, as you said, it was kinda the forefront. I think it was this. Yeah. I think that's what it was, but Scott Cunningham:Cause it is now right. Baja has a that's Kyle Kretschman:Right. Scott Cunningham:He created a job title called economist. Kyle Kretschman:That's right. Yeah. And that got set up about a year in, so like, and I was part of the group. So we would set these, we would set up like these people and process mechanisms that allow economists to be so influential and productive within Amazon. Scott Cunningham:Mm, okay. So how is he doing it? Why, why is Susan saying he performed a miracle by making economist productive? Can you kind of describe, like, if you had to just guess at like the counterfactual, if it hadn't been, you know, pat, it hadn't even been an economist that was hired into Pat's position. Like, what is it that he, what, what is it that he, or Amazon or whatever is making you go transform and become this new version of yourself? Kyle Kretschman:There's, there's a lot of factors and I could probably spend an hour on this, but I'll, I'll try to, I'll try to reduce it down to like some key mechanisms and ideas. The first is that Amazon is probably the most data driven company. I know. Mm. They are so focused on measurement, both of things you can directly measure. And, but they are. So they were very early interested in economic measurements that are UN observables either coming from like coming from econometric models. That, that was whenever pat demonstrated some of those that was like the light bulb went off the, so, because again, it, Amazon was run by and still generally is people with operation science background. And so this over index on measuring as, as coly and as precisely as possible, well that's that's economics. So that, that was part of it. Another part of it is culturally Amazon operates that makes decisions based on six page white papers, you wanna make some economists really productive, have them write a six page white paper instead of giving them a presentation, especially to people like who may be in the background with MBAs or other people who have a comparative advantage, we economists have a care advantage in writing. Kyle Kretschman:So it was little bit of like a surprise, but you might hear these anecdotes where it's true. Like whenever you go into a, a decision making meeting, you come in with your six page white paper that says here's the business decision to be made here is my recommendation. And here's why, and people sit there and it can be a room for five people can be a room of 25 executives. They sit and read the paper and they read the whole thing. Is there an append that can go on forever depending on how big the meeting is. Sure. But that structure of, of data driven decision making, combined with how you're presenting your argument is written seems like, seems like economists should be pretty good at that. Right? Scott Cunningham:Is that a pat thing? He came up with work, the work he made, Kyle Kretschman:What was the six page idea was from Jeff Bezos. And so that was, would Scott Cunningham:Those be circulated throughout the, throughout the, the, the firm, Kyle Kretschman:The stakeholders who needed to be part of the decision making they be circulated. But again, this is every, like everybody's writing six pages. PowerPoint is basically outlawed at, at Amazon. And again, that happened mid 2000. Sometimes people can Google it to find out, but that six page culture and decision making culture, just again, fit economists. Scott Cunningham:So how is a six page paper similar to the kinds of writing that, you know, you sort of associate with economists and how is it different? Kyle Kretschman:So its I'll start with the differences. So one with the six page versus like a 30 page academic, you are not going to be able to share the research process. You are not supposed to share the research process. You're supposed to share the clear recommendation and how you got to that recommendation. Right? So if you think about like a 30 page academic paper XT, be condensed down into those six pages. In my view, they're just, that's just not how the industry operates, but you probably would know better than me on that where, but so again, where it's the same is again, it's a data driven argument. The purpose of this paper, the abstract here is the hypothesis that I have that and here's how I tested it. And here's how I'm making my conclusion. So what I always found really honestly easy was I felt like I was doing the scientific process. Like I felt I, I was with business decision making it generally work within what is the hypothesis? How are we doing this? How are we testing it? What are we think some alternative conclusions could be, but what are we making towards it? So yeah, yeah. Again, it was closer to what I felt like would be a scientific paper in and that hold of day driven mindset is again, that's more, it's very common. Amazon have a common Spotify now Scott Cunningham:Has that been influential throughout, throughout industry? Has that, how have you noticed Amazon influencing Kyle Kretschman:Some Scott Cunningham:Yeah. Like most people don't understand. Kyle Kretschman:Yeah. There there's some companies who definitely have completely adopted it. There's some companies who haven't, but the, the six pager again, that's, this is not a, this isn't a concept just to economist and tech. This is the concept is, is held up as one of the key mechanisms for all of Amazon. Scott Cunningham:Mm mm Hmm. Kyle Kretschman:One other. Scott Cunningham:How often were you writing those? Kyle Kretschman:Depends on what level you were farther in my career. That's the only thing I did was write six page papers and it would be part of like, my team would help, but again, anytime you have a key business decision to be made or an update, like you're gonna be writing the six page. So yeah, it's again, the farther, the more seniority you have though, the more that becomes your job is to communicate side and guide through these business decisions. Scott Cunningham:Do they, to you, Kyle Kretschman:They belong to the team because it's always Scott Cunningham:Put 'em on a, you can't they're like proprietary though to Amazon. Kyle Kretschman:Oh, correct. Yeah. No, they, they're not publicly available. They're Scott Cunningham:Proprietary. Like it must is it what's that feel like to do something? What's it, what's it feel like to, to do something that creative in that kind of like scientific that's siloed within the firm? Does that feel strange? Kyle Kretschman:No, it didn't. Because what it enables is to be able to work on some of the hardest questions without having to worry about without having to worry about com communication strategies or right. For press release. So no, it felt like we were able, and this is going back to like some of the things that pat and we did at Amazon make successful. We worked on some of the hardest problems at Amazon from a very early stage because we said that it wouldn't be publicly available. Right. So that's gonna do that. And Scott Cunningham:That's been a key part. Yeah. Because okay. I get it. Okay. That, that makes a lot of sense. Yeah. So who did you discover? You were, go ahead. Sorry, Kyle. Kyle Kretschman:No, I was gonna say maybe the last me to highlight. Cause again, I, I, we could probably spend this whole interview on this, but the, the other key mechanism that pat pioneered was the proliferation of economists as a job family was not pat saying and us saying, go do this. And I can give through my own personal example. It was the other business executives, seeing the measurement, seeing the results on product, just saying, okay, I want that. So it really was a demand, AKA demand, internal demand for more economists, that was gonna say, I want this with my business decision making process and want these people who can do this and collaborate across the difference. It was not a, oh, we're gonna put economist in the siloed function that everybody's gonna come here. And that was, that was my story. But the very first year I worked on projects directly for the consumer CFO, basically the whole year. It wasn't necessarily by design, but it was what happened. And at the end of the year, year and a half, the, the VP of finance said, come over here and do this with me and come build, come build an economics team and an economics function here within my organization. And that's really is again, that's the real key was it was business decision makers, demanding the ability to understand this and demanding the skill set, just like they would data science, machine learning because of demonstrated value. Scott Cunningham:What were they witnessing with their own eyes that was so compelling that they would Inc that it would increase demand. Kyle Kretschman:So both I'll call it like ad hoc economic analysis on maybe big strategy projects, but also then the introduction of econometric systems into product. Scott Cunningham:Mm. What does that mean? Introduction of econometric systems into products. Kyle Kretschman:So say you have a product that is gonna, let's go back to the recommended system. And I use that again as an abstract, but within there you might make a change to it and you might make a change with the recommender system. That's gonna cause a treatment effect. Right. So, okay. So we can do that one off to estimate that, but you could also then build an economic system. That's gonna measure those treatment effects and changes like an AB platform or things like that. So maybe people might be more common and familiar with like experimental platforms. This would also be then econom. This would be sub out the AB part of it and sub in an economic model, that's going to be doing always on measurement sometimes at a, you know, service level. So sometimes within like individual pages, sometimes it's gonna be at a monthly level, but the integration of econometric models into the product. Scott Cunningham:Right, right. Wow. So how are you a different economist because of that experience at Amazon, if you had to guess, what was it the treatment effect? Kyle Kretschman:Oh, it mean it was, it was incredibly formative because it to tie like it put the fit together with the application to where I could understand and really to where it is, my job is to take a business question, turn it into a scientific process that can be solved with econometrics. And then also be thinking about, is this a problem that needs a scalable solution? Right. So, so Amazon taught me business integration taught me so many different languages, taught me leadership and management taught me how to work with stakeholders in collaborative ways, but then even more so how to deliver the value through econometric measurement, both again, as I said, not only, not only just in ad hoc research papers or one off analysis, but also then where does this fit directly within the products that we build in tech? Scott Cunningham:Yeah. So where'd you go, seems like people don't stay very long in tech. That's like normal. Whereas like, is, is that right? People kind of like, it, it's less normal to stay your whole career at Amazon unless is that wrong or, Kyle Kretschman:I mean, it's got it still do. So it's probably tough to say that because really the, the field started, like you said, really proliferated in 2012. So I stayed at Amazon for six years and I thought I'd be staying even longer. But Spotify came with the opportunity to one work on something I care very deeply about, which is the music industry. I'm a huge music fan. They also came with the idea to build again. So, you know, that was the part that really enticed me was Spotify did not have any PhD economists who were in an and, and economist roles. They had like one in a data science role, but they didn't have the structured economic discipline that they were seeing that Amazon was proliferating. And also then going into like Uber, Airbnb and the other tech companies. And so they said, can you build again? Kyle Kretschman:And I said, yeah, I'm, I'm excited to build. And then last one, all these there's definitely personal considerations here too. And Spotify just really did a great job showing how the company as a whole has Swedish cultures and values. And at the time I had a nine month old and they said, this is a great place to come be a father with the balance and that, and I said, all right, let's make the jump and come to Spotify. And so now I've been here about two years. So cuz I, I actually went to Spotify in may of 2020. Scott Cunningham:So remind me again, your job title at Spotify. Kyle Kretschman:So I'm head of economics. Scott Cunningham:Is, is that the, is that, is that like chief economist? I, I feel like I see different, different job titles and I don't know exactly what, what everything, Kyle Kretschman:Yeah. It, it it's on the path to it. So I'm, I'm the highest ranking PhD economist at Spotify. Scott Cunningham:I see. Okay. I've been there for two years. Okay, go ahead. Sorry. Kyle Kretschman:Yeah. Cause again, that's what I was brought into build was to build, like we did at Amazon was overall integration of PhD economists within the different business units. Scott Cunningham:So this is the part I'm, I'm having some hard time, like, you know, putting, visualizing or putting in my own words. What exactly will it look like if you have been successful in five years at that goal and what would it look like if you had been a complete, complete bust? What are the two things that are like empirical that I would be able to, to observe? Kyle Kretschman:Yeah. A complete bust is probably that an economics discipline is not, is not part of Spotify and there's not, there's not a job family. So a complete bus would've been, I, I moved to Spotify, an economics discipline. I either in, or I'm working data science job, what success looks like is actually what we put first from a, so I'll talk about the people in process, discipline success. We, I came into was Scott Cunningham:Real quick. So Kyle Kretschman:Foundation on basically. Yeah. Scott Cunningham:So, so failure actually would mean that the economist community within Spotify just never materialized, is that what you're saying? And that, and that means like this, having groups of economists that, that think and use the kinds of training we had in graduate school, but in a way that is actually productive in the firm is, is that, is that right? Kyle Kretschman:So, so yeah, and again, that's, Scott Cunningham:The job is successful if you're able to actually create internal demand for economists. Kyle Kretschman:Yep. That's right. And that's, that's what I would say against from the process side. And then from the product side, that's using econometric research in the ways that I've been talking about it's using it both not only for individual analysis, but also then building econometric measurement systems that improve the product to get towards Spotify's mission of, of billion listeners and fans who can connect with over a million creative artists who are making a living. So that's, so it's a combination, it's the combination people process. Do we have the people set up? Do we have this integrated system of economists working alongside all these different types of stakeholders along with the product side of, do we have these measurement techniques that we're applying in a way that is important to Spotify's not only Spotify's business, but all the stakeholders that have an interest in Bon life. Scott Cunningham:So I feel like, you know, I think to academics that, that, and, and maybe even to some degree students, maybe I'm, maybe I'm completely an outlier here and I'm wrong, but you know, I think there's this like really shallow is a negative word. It, I mean, shallow, literally more and just like, it's just the thinnest knowledge possible of what exactly, you know, the, the, the core skillset of a successful economist is in tech. You know, and for many people they think, I think they, they think it's such a primitive level. They're like, it needs to be somebody that can code, you know, it's a data scientist, but, but it, but it, but that's not what I associate with economics. Right. So what would you, what would you articulate? It is, Kyle Kretschman:So it's the ability to do econom applied econometric research. That's applied to business problems. Mm. So within that is coding. Yes. Scott Cunningham:Right, right. Within that is coding. Kyle Kretschman:I, the vast majority, I won't say everyone, but the vast majority of tech economists are gonna have some level of coding and maybe they're not coding anymore. Like I'm not doing any coding anymore, but like they, they have that ability. So that's just again, that's, that's a skillset, but the real ability is doing long-term economic research. Because the questions that we get asked are very hard and difficult, and they are maybe in the academic setting, maybe they are publication worthy, takes that take three years, four years to actually solve with the right model. Yeah. But it's the ability to take that three year research roadmap and make it progress. So when you're doing that, you need to have your summary statistics that the business ca

Lesson Note & TranscriptThis episode consists of two parts: A mini-lesson on the very Korean word "아깝다"Further lesson on the verb conjunctive 고, using the song 일상으로의 초대 (Invitation To My Routine) by Shin HaeChulFor the song, you'll first hear a cover version by 한승윤 & 서영주 duo in Sing Again  (무명가수전, 2020), and then the original singer 신해철, one of most regarded musicians in Korea. * * * * * * *Featured Song: 일상으로의 초대https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1B0on2eDEN4 (한승윤 & 서영주)https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QTkLBhd-hQ8 (신해철) 

The story "Why The Sun And The Moon Live In The Sky", is an African Folktale about the friendship of the Sun And The water and how the sun and the moon moved to the sky.Free activity sheet available at https://www.rituvaish.com/why-the-sun-and-the-moon-live-in-the-skySend your artwork to rituvaish@gmail.com.TranscriptThis is about the time long, long back, when the sun and water were great friends, and they both lived on the earth together. The sun used to visit the water very often. Children what do you think the sun and the water did together.I see. That's interesting!So the sun often visited the water, but the water never returned the visits.At last, the sun asked the water, “ I visit you so often, but you never visit me. You. must visit me sometime dear water.”The water replied, “ I would love to, but unfortunately your house is not big enough, and that if I come with all my people, that would drive you, dear sun out of your own home.”Children, who are the people that water is talking about?Yes, the fish, sharks, jellyfish, whales, etc. In fact, all the sea animals are the people that the water is referring to. The sun was thinking about it when water said, "If you want me to visit you, you will have to build a very large house. But I warn you that it will have to be humongous, as my people are numerous and take up a lot of room.”The Sun was thrilled with this idea and gave a high five to the water with its rays and said, “ I'll surely build a big, very big house and then invite you, dear friend. And That's a promise.”Soon afterward, he returned home to his wife, the moon, who greeted him with a broad smile. The sun told the moon what he had promised the water. Children, what had the sun promised the water?Yes, to build a big house and then invite water.The moon was delighted at the prospect of having water as their guest. So, the next day, they began building a large house to entertain water and all his people. It sure took a long long time.When it was finally completed, the sun asked the water to come and visit him.When the water arrived, one of the water's people called out to the sun,” Is it safe for the water to enter your house, Mr. Sun?”The sun answered, "Yes, tell my friend water to come in and bring all the people."The water began to flow in, along with the big fish, the small fish, the fat fish, the thin fish, and all the other water animals. Splish-splash, Splish-splash.The sun and moon happily greeted them.Children, how do you greet guests who come to your house?Very good.Very soon, the water was knee-deep in the house, so the water asked the sun if it was still safe, and the sun again said smilingly, "Yes., please come! "So more water, along with more fish, and whales, and jellyfish and sharks came in.When the water was at the level of a man's head, the water said to the sun, "Do you think it's okay if more of my people come?"Not knowing any better, the sun and the moon both nodded, "Yes, yes! absolutely."More and more of the water's people came in, until the sun and the moon had to sit on top of the roof.Looking at the sun and moon up on the roof, water called out once again, “ Is it still okay for water people to keep coming in.”The sun and moon looked at each other and together answered, “Yes! You are most welcome!” So more and more of the water's people came in. They were swimming everywhere splish-splash, splish-splash.The water soon overflowed to the top of the roof. Children, what do you think will happen to the moon now? Well, believe it or not, the sun and the moon were forced to go up into the sky.……and they have been there ever since.   

Starship Iris is still on hiatus, but in the meantime, we're dropping the first episode of friend of the show, award-winning Midwestern Gothic audio drama Unwell.You can read a transcript for this episode here: https://www.unwellpodcast.com/s1e1-homecoming-transcriptThis episode features: Clarisa Cherie Rios as Lily, Marsha Harman as Dot, Clint Worthington as Russel Epstien, Bethany Hart as Cynthia Harper, LaQuin Groves as Dale, Mark Soloff as an old man on the edge of town, Michael Turrentine as Wes, Pat King as Chester, Sebastian Orr as [REDACTED], Ele Matelan as [REDACTED]. Voices by Alex Brown, Jeff Van Dreason, Eric Silver, Julia Schifini, Amanda McSweene-Geehan, Michelle Nickolaisen, Jack Pevyhouse, Paul Miscagave and Bridge Greene. Written by Jim McDoniel, sound design by Ryan Schile, directed by Jeffrey Nils Gardner, music composed by Stephen Poon, recording engineer Mel Ruder, Theme performed by Stephen Poon, Lauren Kelly, Gunnar Jebsen, Travis Elfers, Mel Ruder, and Betsey Palmer, Unwell lead sound designer Ryan Schile, Executives Producers Eleanor Hyde and Jeffrey Gardner, by HartLife NFP.Content Advisories. This Episode contains:Jump scaresAggressive DogsAnimals in peril (but not hurt)Creepy noisesUncomfortable social situationsThreatening whispersBroken limbsAutomobile scares

You know that feeling of inertia we all get sometimes, when doing something, anything, to improve our lives just seems so hard? Maybe you're dealing with exhaustion and burnout, maybe it's fear that's holding you back. Or maybe you just have no idea what your next step could be. What do you do when you are in a period in your life when you're just kind of doing...nothing?This episode is an appeal to see these periods of doing nothing as a valuable and necessary part of a transformation-driven life. Don't want to grow and change? That's fine! You are allowed to make that choice. But if you do seek growth that leads to fulfillment and yes! even happiness!, you'll want to hear what I have to say. I tell you how I've dealt with those periods of inertia in my own life, and how you can allow yourself to sink into them while still positioning yourself for growth.TranscriptThis episode's accompanying blog post can be found here.Melissa Green's website (the creator of my business logo)What Do You Do with an Idea? (children's book)Would You Like to Support My Work?Sign up for my newsletter!Buy me a coffee! You can give me a one-time donation using this link. Become a Patron of Stepping Off Now!

During my decades as creative writer, my greatest struggle has been consistency of habit. I always had to force myself to sit down and write on a daily basis. I started and abandoned writing projects constantly (four novels, at least that many blogs). When I started up my creative business in 2020, I knew that needed to change. I had to find a way to maintain consistency because my plan was to grow my business through weekly blog posts and later through weekly podcast episodes. If I have to miss a week sometimes, fine - life happens. But I wanted to hit that weekly target as much as I possibly could (and in fact I haven't missed a week yet). And the nature of the way I work means I don't batch (do a bunch of posts or episodes over the course of a few days). I have to be able to be creative week after week.So how do I do it? In this episode I tell you everything I've learned so far about how to maintain that inspiration to create for the long periods of time needed to do large projects like a novel or a business venture. The key is understanding the difference between different kinds of resistance and between resistance and forcing it. And to never, ever force it. How do you keep resistance from turning into forcing it? Listen and find out!Want to learn more about the Reverse Side of the Tapestry extra content Patreon tier and see that awkward video? Find both here.TranscriptThis episode's accompanying blog post can be found here.Would You Like to Support My Work?Sign up for my newsletter!Buy me a coffee! You can give me a one-time donation using this link. Become a Patron of Stepping Off Now!

Being a grownup isn't supposed to be fun. Sure, there can be fun moments here and there, but mostly it's about responsibilities. Somewhere along the way we lose our ability to get lost in creative play. Do you remember when the magic of childhood started to fade for you? I do. In this episode I tell that story and many more about my own painful journey to adulthood - and how the goal of my life now is to reclaim my childhood sense of fun and joy in being creative. A big piece of the puzzle is grappling with shame. I think that our capacity to experience shame is tangled up in the loss of our ability to immerse ourselves in our own magical worlds that we so easily enter as children. In this episode I talk about my own struggles with shame through the lens of an experience I had as a mid-twenties young woman that caused me to feel shame for many years, but that I eventually learned to feel proud of.  This is a complex episode that really stretched my brain, and I had to dive deep. I'm very proud of it, and I hope you find value in it!TranscriptThis episode's accompanying blog post can be found here.The blog post where I talk about doing a creative pivot is here.Would You Like to Support My Work?Sign up for my newsletter!Buy me a coffee! You can give me a one-time donation using this link. Become a Patron of Stepping Off Now!

This is a story from Africa about a rabbit who wants to become big, but in the end realizes he was better off the way he was.Free activity sheet available at www.rituvaish.com/the-rabbits-wish.Send your artwork to rituvaish@gmail.com.TranscriptThis story is about the time when the rabbit along with her tiny body, short legs, had ears that were small and stumpy on top of her head.One of the rabbits always had a deep desire to be big like the enormous elephant or the tall like a giraffe or strong like a bull. She didn't like to be the teeny tiny animal that she was. So, one day, Rabbit got an idea and decided to go to the Earth Spirit — the creator of all the animals — to grant her a wish. She said, “Dear Earth spirit, please make me big. I am tired of being so little.” The earth spirit calmly explained, “ Rabbit! Why do you want to be big? You're wonderful just the way you are! I created each and every animal to be special in their own way.”The rabbit retorted, “Special? I am not special in any way!”The earth Spirit added, “Well, I specifically made you to be one of the swiftest animals around! I also made you one of the smartest.” The Rabbit shrugged, “ Whatever. So I've got speed, I've got brains. But seriously — what good are those things when I'm such a dwarf? Most everyone is bigger than me, and stronger too— not to mention how many other animals want to eat me!”The earth Spirit said, “Okay, Rabbit, I can make you bigger, but you have to earn it.”The Rabbit quivered with delight and jumping up and down said, “ I'll do anything you say! “The Earth Spirit went on, “ Alright. Here's what you need to do. You must bring me two things. First, a whisker from a Lion. Second, a feather from an Eagle.” Do you think it would be difficult for the rabbit to get the above two things?Well, let's listen ahead. When the earth spirit asked the rabbit to bring a whisker from a lion, and a feather from an Eagle. Rabbit's froze in fear. She started trembling so hard her whiskers were shaking.Rabbit's smile turned upside down she stammered, “Ummm, with due respect, Earth Spirit — Lion and Eagle are two of the big, scary animals who want to eat me for breakfast! And lunch and dinner and even as a midnight snack.” The Earth Spirit said, “Oh, I know! I didn't say the task would be easy. But then, you're a quick one, isn't it? both body and mind! I am sure you'll figure it out. Now, hop on to it!” The Rabbit dragged herself back to her burrow underground and thought to himself, “ Well, this is great. Just great. I ask Earth Spirit to make me bigger, and now she wants me to get Lion's whisker? And Eagle's feather!? All those two ever think about is their next meal. How could I possibly ever --…uuuu . Wait a minute. ‘Their next meal!' That's it!” A plan brewed in her smart mind. The next morning, the Rabbit scrambled out of her burrow to the forest where the Lion was creeping out of his den., and he was just about to start his morning hunt.The rabbit humbly said, “ Hey, Lion, good morning!” The lion stretching and yawing said, “Well, hello, Rabbit! Delivering me breakfast in bed?”The rabbit went a little closer, “Actually lion, your majesty if you play your cards right, I can deliver you two breakfasts.”The Lion raised his shaggy head, “What do you mean, ‘two breakfasts'?”The rabbit said, “ Well, Lion, I heard a top-secret way you can make two of me! You just pluck out your magic whisker, poke my fur two times, and then two Rabbits!The lion scoffed, “ I don't have a magic whisker!”But thinking about the prospect of two rabbits he added, “ But then I'm pretty hungry, and hey, what have I got to lose? Other than, you know, a whisker?”The Lion lifted his paw and yanked out a whisker. Then he poked Rabbit's fur with it, two times.Nothing happened.The lion roared, “ There's still just one of you! Don't fool me.” The rabbit scratching her snub ears said, “ Hmmm ... maybe you're not doing it right. Here, let me try.” The Rabbit snatched the whisker from Lion's paw. What do you think the rabbit would do now?Listen ahead. To find out The rabbit instead of poking herself with it grabbed it from him and began leaping away.The Lion growled and took off after the Rabbit.But the little creature was so fast, by the time Lion reached Rabbit's burrow, she'd already gone into the narrow hole, where the giant beast could never reach her.The lion snapped, “ I'll get you next time, Rabbit. You can't escape the king of the jungle for very long!” Inside the burrow, the Rabbit fell asleep feeling delighted that had met one of the two conditions of the Earth SpiritA few hours later, she woke up all refreshed, nibbled some turnips, then climbed out of her burrow and bounced over to the river.The sun was right above her head and it was lunchtime, and an Eagle was soaring in the sky, her sharp eyes fixed on the water below for some prey that would be his delicious lunch.Waving one of her paws, the rabbit said, “ Hey, Eagle! Eagle! Come Over here!”When Eagle saw Rabbit, the majestic bird swooped down, her pointy talons outstretched. He said, “ Good afternoon, Rabbit! You're just in time for lunch!”The rabbit gathered her courage and said, “ Just a minute, Eagle! If you play your cards right, I can make you two lunches!”Intrigued, the Eagle glided down to the ground, “Wait — what do you mean, “two lunches”?”The rabbit smiled, “ Well, eagle, I heard a top-secret way you can make two of me! You just pluck out one of your magical feathers, poke my fur two times, and then two Rabbits!”The Eagle scowled, “I don't have a magic feather! But no harm trying for I am famished!”The Eagle used one of her talons to pluck out a feather. Then, he poked the rabbit fur two times. , but nothing happened.The eagle screamed, “Wait, there's still only one of you!”Rabbit took the feather from Eagle's talon, “Hmmm. Maybe you're not doing it right. Hang on. Let me try”  Can you guess what she did next?That's right! The rabbit clutched that feather in her fuzzy little paw and began scampering away!Eagle flapped her wings and took off after Rabbit. But, as with Lion, by the time Eagle reached Rabbit's cozy burrow, Rabbit was safe and snug under the ground. The eagle was angry, but couldn't do anything He yelled out, “ Rabbit! I've got my eagle-eyes on you!”Rabbit waited until the coast was clear.  So children where do you think the rabbit will go now?That's correct  With Eagle's feather in one paw and Lion's whisker in the other, she scuttled out of her burrow and proudly showed her items to the Earth Spirit.The Earth Spirit said, “ Well, well, well! I am impressed Rabbit. You've succeeded in obtaining two objects from two animals who could easily swallow you in one gulp. And you've done it just as you are — with nothing but swift feet and a swift mind!”The rabbit ignoring the words of the Earth Spirit said, “It's time for my wish, you promised you'd grant my wish.”The Earth Spirit sighed, “ Alright, Rabbit; a promise is a promise.” There was a blinding flash of light, then Rabbit felt a tug on her front side. Next, she felt a tug on her backside.The rabbit was amazed by her growing size and exclaimed, “ Woah! Holy moly! Look at this!” Now, her entire body was stretching and growing, growing and stretching — until she was nearly as big as a goat!While the rabbit was still admiring her new, bigger self when she heard some familiar voices. Some familiar angry voices. Can you guess whose angry voices were those?Well, Listen ahead to find out. .. “There she is! The trickster who stole my whisker!” roared the lion.“And my feather!” added the eagle.They both rapidly rushed towards the rabbit. Do you think the rabbit would escape? Listen ahead The Rabbit's instinct was to scamper off like she'd always done before. But her new, bigger body felt heavy and it was difficult to run.Without thinking, Rabbit staggered to her burrow. But when she tried diving down the narrow hole, the bigger body got stuck!By now the Lion and Eagle were getting closer and closer. Rabbit fought back her tears and pleaded actually to the earth Spirit, “ Earth Spirit! I was wrong. I never should have asked to be a different size. I was fine before. No actually— I was awesome! Please! Can you turn me back to the way I was?”The earth spirit said, “ Well, I can't reverse a wish once I've granted. But there is one thing I can do.”There was another flash of light, and all at once, Rabbit felt herself shrinking and shrinking, until her body was small enough to slip through her burrow and escape the mighty paws of Lion.The lion hitting the ground with his paws in frustration said, “ She escapes yet again.” The Eagle soaring back in the sky thought to himself, “ These rabbits are swift and smart and very difficult to hunt.”  Now, Rabbit's body was back to its regular size. But her ears — her formerly stubby ears —were still big! The Earth Spirit had left Rabbit's ears long — as long as a corn cob! Not only that, but they could even tilt and turn in any direction, so that now when other, bigger animals wanted to get revenge for Rabbit's tricks she could hear them coming from a mile away!Probably, that how the rabbits' short and snubby ears became tall like the ones they have now.Bigger doesn't always mean better. Sometimes best things come in small sizes.

The transcript can be found here:https://www.game-production.com/post/anthony-kyne-podcast-episode-full-transcriptThis being my second ever attempt at recording and editing a podcast, be kind and feel free to give advice! Our guest today is Anthony Kyne, a Lead Producer at Mediatonic Games. They've made games such as Gears Pop!, Murder by Numbers and the upcoming Fall Guys: Ultimate Knockout, which looks awesome. Anthony has worked on titles such as Madden, Championship Manager & The Sims. Unlike nearly every Producer that I've met or stalked on LinkedIn before now, Anthony has worked in games as both a lead designer and senior programmer. This gives him a unique understanding of making games which I'm looking forward to delving into. He was Lead Designer on Championship Manager game back in 2009, which saw the franchise finally rise to become a viable alternative to Football Manager. In this episode, we talk about Anthony's experience as a designer, coder and producer. We deep dive into The Golf Club to use as an exploration of production methods. We talk about pods, cancelling all meetings, how producers need to be leaders and a lot more.This time I have added the topics as chapters in the podcast so hopefully you can see them when you download this!00:00 Intros11:25 Advantages of coming from a different gaming background21:10 The bare minimum of a Producer - traits, experience & skills28:40 Agile methods - new concepts, prototyping & tech demos34:36 Play your own game!38:49 Producers - the good, the bad but always leaders46:10 Earning Trust49:00 Production Deep Dive: The Golf Club86:12 Meetings, meetings, meetings89:11 Why be a producer?92:03 What's next for Anthony?We would love feedback - leave it anywhere we can reach it! For more articles and interviews with producers and others in the games industry, check out:http://www.game-production.comABOUT GAME-PRODUCTION.COMOur Vision is to enable games industry professionals to plan better, lead better and stop the crunch culture, through building a community of support, knowledge and training.Please visit the website, which exists as a place to gather and chat, swap ideas and learn from each other, accumulate expertise and even accreditation. We are gradually building a library of podcasts, videos, training, articles and guides. Please join us.http://www.game-production.comFOLLOW US:Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/groups/gameproductioncommunityWebsite: https://www.game-production.com

The transcript can be found here:https://www.game-production.com/post/callum-godfrey-podcast-episode-full-transcriptThis being my first ever attempt at recording and editing a podcast, please forgive the obvious amateurish mistakes! However, that is made up by the quality of our first ever guest, Callum Godfrey, Head of Production at Bossa Studios. You might know Bossa from Surgeon Simulator and I am Bread. Previously, Callum worked for Wargaming Mobile as an Exec Producer then Head of Studio at Wargaming Helsinki. Callum has found the fun at such esteemed gaming companies as King, EA, Microsoft, Playfish, Activision and Codemasters. He has dwelled mainly, but not exclusively, within the mobile gaming space for the last decade.In a very long and interesting chat, we cover the following topics:04:20 What makes a natural producer?08:38 The hierarchy of production roles in modern game development12:30 Your potential career path and specialisation17:25 Diversified roles and skillsets19:00 Agile servant leader roleWe talked for a long time about mobile game development and the differences between that and PC/console.21:00 The differences between developing on mobile and PC/Console30:10: Habits, addiction & dopamine, oh my36:00 Complexity and scale of game dev now41:00 The difference between making a product and a game46:20 Innovations in mobile48:00 Big data, grinding and mobile games = maths54:20 Monetisation strategies57:40 Can mobile games be as 'pure' as PC/console?We then skipped around some areas around production roles and skillsets.58:40 What is a Program Manager and what do they do? The importance of communications as a core skill.62:20 A maturing industry66:00 What was the Head of Studio role in Helsinki all about?68:50 All about the production role at Wargaming, working with mobile product managers and a lot more about mobile Product Managers73:30 A lot of discussion around project management and what is expected of producersTen minutes of quickfire questions to end off.83:30 Callum's 3 biggest joys and headaches at Bossa90:20 Do successful producers need to be obsessed with games?93:26 Advice for new producers on what to do and what not to do96:00 Did Callum have a clear career path in mind when he started?98:05 Future plans99:50 The question he wished I had asked him: Should producers have budgetary responsibilities? (Spoiler: yes)We would love feedback - leave it anywhere we can reach it! For more articles and interviews with producers and others in the games industry, check out:http://www.game-production.comABOUT GAME-PRODUCTION.COMOur Vision is to enable games industry professionals to plan better, lead better and stop the crunch culture, through building a community of support, knowledge and training.Please visit the website, which exists as a place to gather and chat, swap ideas and learn from each other, accumulate expertise and even accreditation. We are gradually building a library of podcasts, videos, training, articles and guides. Please join us.http://www.game-production.comFOLLOW US:Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/groups/gameproductioncommunityWebsite: https://www.game-production.com

What does medical education research say about improving diagnostic errors? What habits help in getting to diagnostic excellence?Timestamps01:00 System 1 vs. System 207:46 Cognitive Biases13:46 Case for Knowledge18:29 Other Practices to Decrease Error28:26 Conclusion CME: http://bit.ly/CIMCME || Show Notes & TranscriptThis episode is made in part of ACP's Diagnostic Excellence curriculumTags: IMCore, CoreIM, clinical reasoning, system 1 vs. system 2, cognitive bias, feedback and reflectionFind the best disability insurance for you: https://www.patternlife.com/disability-insurance?campid=497840Advertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy