Podcasts about yen

I sit down with Dr Timothy Yen, Gastroenterologist and Clinical Informaticist at Loma Linda University.  Dr Yen was building the Lynch Syndrome program at Loma Linda when he discovered Epic Cosmos, where the Epic's Care Everywhere could be used for research, regardless of the health system.  Epic Cosmos unlike other modules, isn't built around claims data.  Now Dr Yen can pull de-identified data from thousands of patients, aggregate statistics and more.  Cosmos is free for a health system to join, but they just need Care Everywhere.   It also has a system to potentially connect lynch syndrome providers without breaking any privacy issues.  Biggest barrier is going through the training and understanding how it works in order to do anything meaningful.  As patients, we need to remind our physician offices to be specific in documenting our visits.  

Charles Schwab's Michelle Gibley turns to the international front, noting the Israel and Iran conflict as one with many unknowns. She says global conflicts typically don't have long-lasting market effects with the exception of energy, noting crude's excessive price climb and likely increases if attacks continue. On Japan, Michelle Gibley doesn't see the Bank of Japan increasing interest rates as the anniversary of the Yen carry trade nears.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Japan Rugby Football Union Earns Record Revenue of 8 B. Yen in FY 2024

Jerome Powell heeft nog ruim elf maanden te gaan als Fed-voorzitter. Maar die maanden duren Donald Trump net wat te lang. Daar weet Trump wel raad mee. Als hij nu al een opvolger aanwijst, dan heeft hij het alsnog praktisch voor het zeggen. Want zo richt hij een soort 'schaduw-Fed' op, waar de markten meer aandacht aan zullen hechten dan aan Powell. Maar zet Trump 'zijn' economie en 'zijn' dollar op het spel als hij zijn eigen pion neerzet bij de Federal Reserve? Met die vraag mogen beleggers wereldwijd gaan worstelen de komende tijd. Verder zegt de Amerikaanse president een deal te hebben bereikt met China. Nou ja: een tussendeal. Een 'raamwerk' dat de handelsoorlog verder pauzeert voordat een andere deal de oorlog écht beëindigt. En er zit nog een haakje aan, want zowel Trump zelf als Xi Jinping van China moeten er nog een handtekening onder zetten. Autoproducenten in de VS en Europa staan te juichen, want de zeldzame aardmetalen stromen China weer uit. Chinese studenten mogen in ruil daarvoor verder studeren in de VS. Ook Elon Musk maakt een deal, maar dan met zijn eigen geweten. Hij biedt excuses aan voor het gebekvecht met Donald Trump van vorige week. Teslabeleggers zijn uitzinnig: het aandeel staat alweer hoger dan het voor de ruzie stond. Misschien is de nieuwe proef met robotaxi's die op 22 juni van start gaat wel de kers op hun taart. Tot slot draait Jensen Huang van Nvidia even 180 graden bij. In januari zei hij nog dat kwantumcomputers pas over 20 jaar nuttig zouden worden, waarna kwantum-aandelen zoals Rigetti en IonQ van de trap vielen. Rigetti verloor zelfs 70 procent van zijn waarde. Maar vandaag zei Huang opeens dat de kwantumrevolutie een keerpunt heeft bereikt en dat de kwantumtoekomst binnen handbereik ligt. We bespreken wat er dan is veranderd in de tussentijd.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jesse Felder returns to Soar Financially to break down why the U.S. economy is far more fragile than it appears to be. From rising inflation and deliberate economic slowdown to insider selling, stagflation risks, and a major monetary regime change, Jesse warns that this market is dangerously overvalued.#gold #marketcrash #buffett-------------------

Jerome Powell heeft nog ruim elf maanden te gaan als Fed-voorzitter. Maar die maanden duren Donald Trump net wat te lang. Daar weet Trump wel raad mee. Als hij nu al een opvolger aanwijst, dan heeft hij het alsnog praktisch voor het zeggen. Want zo richt hij een soort 'schaduw-Fed' op, waar de markten meer aandacht aan zullen hechten dan aan Powell. Maar zet Trump 'zijn' economie en 'zijn' dollar op het spel als hij zijn eigen pion neerzet bij de Federal Reserve? Met die vraag mogen beleggers wereldwijd gaan worstelen de komende tijd. Verder zegt de Amerikaanse president een deal te hebben bereikt met China. Nou ja: een tussendeal. Een 'raamwerk' dat de handelsoorlog verder pauzeert voordat een andere deal de oorlog écht beëindigt. En er zit nog een haakje aan, want zowel Trump zelf als Xi Jinping van China moeten er nog een handtekening onder zetten. Autoproducenten in de VS en Europa staan te juichen, want de zeldzame aardmetalen stromen China weer uit. Chinese studenten mogen in ruil daarvoor verder studeren in de VS. Ook Elon Musk maakt een deal, maar dan met zijn eigen geweten. Hij biedt excuses aan voor het gebekvecht met Donald Trump van vorige week. Teslabeleggers zijn uitzinnig: het aandeel staat alweer hoger dan het voor de ruzie stond. Misschien is de nieuwe proef met robotaxi's die op 22 juni van start gaat wel de kers op hun taart. Tot slot draait Jensen Huang van Nvidia even 180 graden bij. In januari zei hij nog dat kwantumcomputers pas over 20 jaar nuttig zouden worden, waarna kwantum-aandelen zoals Rigetti en IonQ van de trap vielen. Rigetti verloor zelfs 70 procent van zijn waarde. Maar vandaag zei Huang opeens dat de kwantumrevolutie een keerpunt heeft bereikt en dat de kwantumtoekomst binnen handbereik ligt. We bespreken wat er dan is veranderd in de tussentijd.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What are the top 5 Must-Dos of Portfolio Careers?

Chris Coleman had it all and yet it still was not enough. He had a great job that made six figures, a beautiful home, wife and family. He also had a mistress and a murderous mindset.  Join Patreon here to binge bonus content! Crime Curious is creating a kick-ass exclusive listener experience | Patreon https://www.buymeacoffee.com/crimecurious Music By: Michael Drzewiecki Cover Art By: Charnell Christopher Coleman of the Coleman family murders: where is he today? - YEN.COM.GH Chris Coleman murders Man Accused of Killing Family Texts Girlfriend from Wife's Funeral - CBS News Former Marine Found Guilty in Wife, Sons' Murder Case | Fox News

Enviados de México en Yenín se encuentran a salvo: SRE Cierran carretera Culiacán-Navolato por tiroteo Combaten incendio en NL tras explosión en empresa de diésel

Pese a haber acordado una reunión el viernes con Claudia Sheinbaum, integrantes de la CNTE bloquearon este miércoles los accesos a Palacio Nacional y extendieron sus protestas a Reforma e Insurgentes. Incluso no dejaron que los periodistas ingresaran a la mañanera, por lo que la presidenta tuvo que dar su conferencia sin audiencia presencial, sólo virtual. Las fuerzas de Israel dispararon tiros de advertencia contra una numerosa delegación de diplomáticos europeos, árabes, canadienses y hasta latinos, incluidos mexicanos, que realizaban una visita oficial al campo de refugiados de Yenín.Además…. Las autoridades estadounidenses ya cuentan con la autorización para empezar con las investigaciones dentro del Buque la Escuela Cuauhtémoc; Estados Unidos sancionó a líderes del Cartel del Noreste; Mataron a la periodista Avisack Douglas en Veracruz; Donald Trump aceptó el polémico regalo de un avión Boeing 747 del gobierno de Qatar; Y Chris Brown, acusado de agresión, fue liberado bajo fianza en Reino Unido.Y para #ElVasoMedioLleno… La Suprema Corte de Justicia de la Nación celebró un paso firme hacia la protección de los derechos de la infancia en Guerrero.Para enterarte de más noticias como estas, síguenos en redes sociales. Estamos en todas las plataformas como @telokwento. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Dos trabajadores de la Embajada de Israel en Estados Unidos han sido asesinados a tiros a las puertas del Museo Judío de la capital norteamericana. El tirador, ya arrestado, gritó "Palestina Libre". Mientras, Naciones Unidas ha confirmado que Israel ha permitido que 90 camiones con ayuda humanitaria empiecen a llegar a los gazatíes, aunque también sigue bombardeando la Franja, dejando esta madrugada al menos 10 muertos. Además, el ejército israelí disparó contra una veintena de diplomáticos, representantes de varios países árabes y europeos, entre ellos un español, que estaban visitando la ciudad de Yenín, en la Cisjordania ocupada. Y en España, los socios del gobierno aprietan al PSOE para que el bloqueo al comercio de armas con Israel se haga efectivo.

La relación entre Europa e Israel ha cambiado en los últimos días. El 19 de mayo, el primer ministro israelí, Benjamín Netanyahu, anunció que tomaría el control total de la Franja de Gaza y que permitiría la entrada de ayuda humanitaria. Cientos de camiones esperan en la frontera a que se les autorice el paso. El riesgo de hambruna es muy alto y la ONU advierte que unos 14.000 recién nacidos gazatíes podrían morir en los próximos días si se continúa bloqueando la ayuda humanitaria. Desde Médicos Sin Fronteras denuncian que la asistencia es insuficiente e instan a la Unión Europea a ejercer presión para que Israel detenga los ataques. Diecisiete países de la UE se muestran partidarios de revisar el Acuerdo de Asociación con Israel, vigente desde hace 25 años, aunque por ahora no alcanzan una mayoría.En el capítulo de hoy, Juan Sanhermelando, corresponsal de EL ESPAÑOL, explica en qué consiste dicho acuerdo y qué países se oponen a romperlo. Alberto Prieto, subdirector de EL ESPAÑOL, analiza las relaciones entre Israel y España en un momento en el que Defensa reconoce que no habrá un embargo total de armas a Israel.Una delegación compuesta por una treintena de diplomáticos de la Unión Europea, así como enviados de países árabes, fue atacada este miércoles por la mañana por fuerzas israelíes durante una visita a la ciudad cisjordana de Yenín. El incidente eleva la tensión internacional en pleno replanteamiento de los lazos entre Europa e Israel tras la ofensiva sobre Gaza.

Informativo de primera hora de la mañana, en el programa El Remate de La Diez Capital Radio. Hoy hace 1 año: España retira a su embajadora en Buenos Aires tras negarse Milei a pedir perdón: "Se quedará definitivamente en Madrid" Milei califica de "payasada" la retirada de la embajadora española en Buenos Aires, pero no actuará de forma recíproca …y hace 365 días: El Gobierno canario dice ahora que quiere el “control” sobre la extracción de tierras raras en las Islas. Hoy se cumplen 1.182 días del cruel ataque e invasión de Rusia a Ucrania. 3 años y 84 días. Hoy es jueves 22 de mayo de 2025. Día Internacional de la Diversidad biológica. Fue decretado por la Organización de las Naciones Unidas (ONU), con el objetivo de crear conciencia acerca de la importancia que tiene la biodiversidad para los seres humanos y la necesidad de cuidarla y preservarla para las futuras generaciones. La diversidad biológica o biodiversidad se refiere a la variedad de seres vivos existentes y las diferencias genéticas de cada especie, tanto de animales, plantas y microorganismos que nacen, crecen y se desarrollan en un determinado ecosistema. Incluye los distintos procesos y cambios evolutivos que ocurren con las especies y todo el entorno que les rodea. El Convenio sobre la Diversidad Biológica se firmó en el año 1992, en la Cumbre para la Tierra de la Organización de las Naciones Unidas (ONU). Fue aprobado por 196 países, estableciendo la aplicación de los acuerdos en los distintos sectores. Este valioso instrumento internacional tiene como objetivo la protección, cuidado y conservación de la diversidad biológica de todo el planeta. Con ello se busca que la especie humana sea capaz de vivir en un mundo mucho más sostenible, con mayor justicia y equidad, donde la distribución de los recursos naturales pueda llegar a un mayor número de personas, que lamentablemente hoy sufren de hambre, miseria y muerte por falta de ellos. 1774 en el océano Atlántico sur, el español Francisco de Orduña y sus hombres toman posesión de las islas Malvinas. 1875 Noruega adopta el sistema métrico decimal. 1906 los hermanos Wright patentan su aeroplano. 1927 en China, un fuerte terremoto causa 200.000 muertos. 1931 en España se proclama la libertad religiosa. 1984 zarpó de Tenerife la Expedición Atlantis. 2004 en Madrid (España), contraen matrimonio el Príncipe de Asturias Felipe de Borbón y Grecia, hoy Rey de España, con Doña Letizia Ortiz Rocasolano. Virgen de los Milagros, patrona de Ágreda; santos Faustino y Timoteo; santas Rita, Joaquina de Vedruna y Quiteria. Trump anuncia el plan Cúpula Dorada, un sistema de defensa antimisiles. Guerra de Israel en Gaza: fuerzas israelíes disparan contra una delegación de diplomáticos en Yenín. Marlaska reconoce "errores en primera persona" por el contrato de armas con Israel pero han "sabido resolverlo" Sánchez reprocha a Feijóo su "falta de humanidad" con Gaza y este le echa en cara su "corrupción generalizada. Matan a tiros en Madrid a Andriy Portnov, exasesor presidencial acusado de alta traición en Ucrania. Canarias apoya al Estado contra el recurso de Madrid sobre el reparto de menores migrantes El Gobierno regional autoriza a sus servicios jurídicos esta intervención tras conocer que el TC ha admitido a trámite el recurso de inconstitucionalidad promovido por Madrid. El Gobierno canario (CC-PP) exige al Estado que obligue a las comunidades a acoger a los menores migrantes. Se ha autorizado a los servicios jurídicos autonómicos para que respalden al Gobierno central en la defensa de la aplicación del decreto ley, ante los recursos presentados por las comunidades de Madrid y de Aragón, gobernadas por el PP. Infancia llevará a Aragón al Supremo por no presentar los datos de sus centros de menores La región presidida por Azcón (PP) recurrió al Tribunal Superior de Justicia de Madrid el requerimiento. El resto de comunidades sí cumplieron con el plazo y presentaron sus cifras. La obesidad del 21 % de los canarios será considerado como enfermedad y no “como una condición” El SCS pone en marcha un abordaje integral desde Atención Primaria para diagnosticar esta patología con apoyo médico, psicológico y social. El PSOE abre expediente a Gustavo Matos pero denuncia una “cacería política” Patxi López señala que el vicepresidente del parlamento canario ha dado sus explicaciones: "Yo me quedo con ellas" El subdelegado del Gobierno en la provincia de Santa Cruz de Tenerife se reunió también con el capo Mohamed Derbah. Jesús Javier Plata le entregó información relevante a Derbah en ese encuentro, según confiesa el propio capo a Matos en la cita que tuvieron en enero en la cafetería de El Corte Inglés. Un 22 de mayo de 1924 nace Charles Aznavour, fue un cantante, compositor, actor, director, diplomático y poeta francés de origen armenio, ​ llamado universalmente como El embajador de la chanson. Fallecio 1 de octubre de 2018.

Bienvenidos a La Diez Capital Radio! Están a punto de comenzar un nuevo episodio de nuestro Programa de Actualidad, donde la información, la formación y el entretenimiento se encuentran para ofrecerles lo mejor de las noticias y temas relevantes. Este programa, dirigido y presentado por Miguel Ángel González Suárez, es su ventana directa a los acontecimientos más importantes, así como a las historias que capturan la esencia de nuestro tiempo. A través de un enfoque dinámico y cercano, Miguel Ángel conecta con ustedes para proporcionar una experiencia informativa y envolvente. Desde análisis profundos hasta entrevistas exclusivas, cada emisión está diseñada para mantenerles al tanto, ofrecerles nuevos conocimientos y, por supuesto, entretenerles. Para más detalles sobre el programa, visiten nuestra web en www.ladiez.es. - Informativo de primera hora de la mañana, en el programa El Remate de La Diez Capital Radio. Hoy hace 1 año: España retira a su embajadora en Buenos Aires tras negarse Milei a pedir perdón: "Se quedará definitivamente en Madrid" Milei califica de "payasada" la retirada de la embajadora española en Buenos Aires, pero no actuará de forma recíproca …y hace 365 días: El Gobierno canario dice ahora que quiere el “control” sobre la extracción de tierras raras en las Islas. Hoy se cumplen 1.182 días del cruel ataque e invasión de Rusia a Ucrania. 3 años y 84 días. Hoy es jueves 22 de mayo de 2025. Día Internacional de la Diversidad biológica. Fue decretado por la Organización de las Naciones Unidas (ONU), con el objetivo de crear conciencia acerca de la importancia que tiene la biodiversidad para los seres humanos y la necesidad de cuidarla y preservarla para las futuras generaciones. La diversidad biológica o biodiversidad se refiere a la variedad de seres vivos existentes y las diferencias genéticas de cada especie, tanto de animales, plantas y microorganismos que nacen, crecen y se desarrollan en un determinado ecosistema. Incluye los distintos procesos y cambios evolutivos que ocurren con las especies y todo el entorno que les rodea. El Convenio sobre la Diversidad Biológica se firmó en el año 1992, en la Cumbre para la Tierra de la Organización de las Naciones Unidas (ONU). Fue aprobado por 196 países, estableciendo la aplicación de los acuerdos en los distintos sectores. Este valioso instrumento internacional tiene como objetivo la protección, cuidado y conservación de la diversidad biológica de todo el planeta. Con ello se busca que la especie humana sea capaz de vivir en un mundo mucho más sostenible, con mayor justicia y equidad, donde la distribución de los recursos naturales pueda llegar a un mayor número de personas, que lamentablemente hoy sufren de hambre, miseria y muerte por falta de ellos. 1774 en el océano Atlántico sur, el español Francisco de Orduña y sus hombres toman posesión de las islas Malvinas. 1875 Noruega adopta el sistema métrico decimal. 1906 los hermanos Wright patentan su aeroplano. 1927 en China, un fuerte terremoto causa 200.000 muertos. 1931 en España se proclama la libertad religiosa. 1984 zarpó de Tenerife la Expedición Atlantis. 2004 en Madrid (España), contraen matrimonio el Príncipe de Asturias Felipe de Borbón y Grecia, hoy Rey de España, con Doña Letizia Ortiz Rocasolano. Virgen de los Milagros, patrona de Ágreda; santos Faustino y Timoteo; santas Rita, Joaquina de Vedruna y Quiteria. Trump anuncia el plan Cúpula Dorada, un sistema de defensa antimisiles. Guerra de Israel en Gaza: fuerzas israelíes disparan contra una delegación de diplomáticos en Yenín. Marlaska reconoce "errores en primera persona" por el contrato de armas con Israel pero han "sabido resolverlo" Sánchez reprocha a Feijóo su "falta de humanidad" con Gaza y este le echa en cara su "corrupción generalizada. Matan a tiros en Madrid a Andriy Portnov, exasesor presidencial acusado de alta traición en Ucrania. Canarias apoya al Estado contra el recurso de Madrid sobre el reparto de menores migrantes El Gobierno regional autoriza a sus servicios jurídicos esta intervención tras conocer que el TC ha admitido a trámite el recurso de inconstitucionalidad promovido por Madrid. El Gobierno canario (CC-PP) exige al Estado que obligue a las comunidades a acoger a los menores migrantes. Se ha autorizado a los servicios jurídicos autonómicos para que respalden al Gobierno central en la defensa de la aplicación del decreto ley, ante los recursos presentados por las comunidades de Madrid y de Aragón, gobernadas por el PP. Infancia llevará a Aragón al Supremo por no presentar los datos de sus centros de menores La región presidida por Azcón (PP) recurrió al Tribunal Superior de Justicia de Madrid el requerimiento. El resto de comunidades sí cumplieron con el plazo y presentaron sus cifras. La obesidad del 21 % de los canarios será considerado como enfermedad y no “como una condición” El SCS pone en marcha un abordaje integral desde Atención Primaria para diagnosticar esta patología con apoyo médico, psicológico y social. El PSOE abre expediente a Gustavo Matos pero denuncia una “cacería política” Patxi López señala que el vicepresidente del parlamento canario ha dado sus explicaciones: "Yo me quedo con ellas" El subdelegado del Gobierno en la provincia de Santa Cruz de Tenerife se reunió también con el capo Mohamed Derbah. Jesús Javier Plata le entregó información relevante a Derbah en ese encuentro, según confiesa el propio capo a Matos en la cita que tuvieron en enero en la cafetería de El Corte Inglés. Un 22 de mayo de 1924 nace Charles Aznavour, fue un cantante, compositor, actor, director, diplomático y poeta francés de origen armenio, ​ llamado universalmente como El embajador de la chanson. Fallecio 1 de octubre de 2018. - Sección de actualidad con mucho sentido de Humor inteligente en el programa El Remate de La Diez Capital radio con el periodista socarrón y palmero, José Juan Pérez Capote, El Nº 1. - En este programa del Remate la Mentora en bienestar consciente y alimentación Pilar González junto con José Figueroa García y Miguel Angel González Suárez analizan y desmontan las narrativas de relaciones públicas y publicidad encubierta que rodean a estos medicamentos y abordan el problema de la mala alimentación, la obesidad y sus soluciones, un programa imperdible. - Sección de actualidad informativa en El Remate de La Diez Capital Radio con Cristina A. Secas y Francisco Pallero En una nueva entrega de la sección de actualidad informativa del programa El Remate de La Diez Capital Radio, contamos con la presencia de la economista Cristina A. Secas y el periodista y coronel Francisco Pallero, dos voces con criterio que analizan con rigor y sentido crítico los temas que marcan la agenda política, económica y social del momento. Como es habitual, no vienen solos: les acompaña Salvador, su inseparable bichón maltés, que ya se ha convertido en parte entrañable del programa y símbolo de esta sección tan esperada por nuestros oyentes. Una cita semanal para entender el presente con profundidad, desde la experiencia y la pluralidad de opiniones, siempre con el toque cercano y peculiar que aporta este curioso y entrañable trío. - Entrevista en La Diez Capital Radio al Dr. Rafael Zamora, director científico de Loro Parque Fundación. En el programa de hoy de La Diez Capital Radio, recibimos al Dr. Rafael Zamora, director científico de Loro Parque Fundación, para conocer en profundidad uno de los proyectos más impresionantes en conservación de especies a nivel mundial: la estación de cría de La Vera, ubicada en Tenerife. Durante la entrevista, el Dr. Zamora nos desvela cómo esta instalación, considerada la mayor reserva genética de loros del planeta, se ha convertido en un referente internacional en la protección y recuperación de especies en peligro de extinción. Nos hablará del trabajo científico y técnico que allí se realiza, de la importancia de la biodiversidad aviar y del compromiso que Loro Parque Fundación mantiene con la sostenibilidad y la conservación del medioambiente. Una conversación apasionante sobre ciencia, naturaleza y el papel de Canarias como enclave estratégico para la conservación global. - Sección en La Diez Capital Radio con Konstantin Hinner Ivamtchev y Juan Pablo Cabrera Molina. En esta edición de nuestra sección en La Diez Capital Radio, conversamos con Konstantin Hinner Ivamtchev, CEO de Proyectos Insulares, y con Juan Pablo Cabrera Molina, Director Comercial de la compañía. Juntos, nos ofrecen una visión detallada del funcionamiento interno de Proyectos Insulares, una inmobiliaria que se ha consolidado como un referente en el archipiélago canario. Hablamos de su modelo de gestión, del enfoque personalizado en la atención al cliente y de cómo han sabido adaptarse a las demandas de un mercado inmobiliario cambiante y competitivo. ¿Tienes una casa vacía, un terreno sin uso, o estás pensando en vender un inmueble? Una conversación reveladora sobre profesionalidad, innovación y compromiso con el desarrollo urbanístico sostenible en las islas.

Dos trabajadores de la Embajada de Israel en Estados Unidos han sido asesinados a tiros a las puertas del Museo Judío de la capital norteamericana. El tirador, ya arrestado, gritó "Palestina Libre". Mientras, Naciones Unidas ha confirmado que Israel ha permitido que 90 camiones con ayuda humanitaria empiecen a llegar a los gazatíes, aunque también sigue bombardeando la Franja, dejando esta madrugada al menos 10 muertos. Además, el ejército israelí disparó contra una veintena de diplomáticos, representantes de varios países árabes y europeos, entre ellos un español, que estaban visitando la ciudad de Yenín, en la Cisjordania ocupada. Y en España, los socios del gobierno aprietan al PSOE para que el bloqueo al comercio de armas con Israel se haga efectivo.

La ayuda a Gaza sigue bloqueada en la frontera. Militares israelíes disparan contra una delegación diplomática que visitaba Yenín.  Los pueblos indígenas de la Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta, en Colombia, corren un riesgo real de desaparecer

Vous ne savez pas dans quoi investir en Bourse ? Des gérants vous donnent des idées de valeurs, secteurs, matières premières ...

Você anda com dificuldade de concentração, irritabilidade, queda de produtividade? Esses podem ser sintomas de uma doença que tem crescido exponencialmente no Brasil, a Síndrome de Burnout.De 2014 pra cá, a quantidade de trabalhadores brasileiros afastados por causa desse mal aumentou nada menos que 1000%. Um número alarmante, que requer debates urgentes sobre as relações profissionais em que vivemos.Sempre defendo que as pessoas procurem médicos para diagnosticar doenças, então este episódio NÃO tem objetivo de fazer isto, ok? Mas, sim, de funcionar como uma conversa inicial para quem talvez suspeite estar rumo a um Burnout.Vamos entender o que exatamente é esta doença e listar sintomas mais comuns. Talvez seja o ponto de partida para você procurar ajuda de um profissional de saúde. Trabalho é pra trazer dignidades pras nossas vidas, e não doença.===========================Use o Cupom ALVINO e ganhe 10% de desconto na EVINO===========================APRENDA EM 5 MINUTOS é o podcast sobre coisas que você nem sabia que queria saber. Os episódios são roteirizados e apresentados por Alvaro Leme. Jornalista, mestre e doutorando em Ciências da Comunicação na ECA-USP e criador de conteúdo há vinte anos, ele traz episódios sobre curiosidades dos mais variados tipos. São episódios curtos, quase sempre com 5 minutos — mas alguns passam disso, porque tem tema que precisa mesmo de mais um tempinho.Edição dos episódios em vídeo: André Glasnerhttp://instagram.com/andreglasnerDireção de arte: Dorien Barrettohttps://www.instagram.com/dorienbarretto66/Fotografia: Daniela Tovianskyhttps://www.instagram.com/dtoviansky/Narração da vinheta: Mônica Marlihttps://www.instagram.com/monicamarli/Siga o APRENDA no Instagram: http://instagram.com/aprendapodcasthttp://instagram.com/alvarolemeComercial e parcerias: contato@alvaroleme.com.br============================Quer saber mais? Confira as fontes que consultei enquanto criava o episódioBurnout: o que é, quais são os sintomas e tratamentosO Globo https://oglobo.globo.com/saude/noticia/2023/05/burnout-o-que-e-quais-sao-os-sintomas-e-tratamentos.ghtmlComo pais que trabalham podem identificar sinais de burnoutDra. Yen, The New York Timeshttps://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/05/well/family/parental-burnout-symptoms.htmlBurnout: afastamentos por esgotamento mental crescem 1.000% em 10 anosG1https://g1.globo.com/saude/noticia/2024/01/22/burnout-afastamentos-por-esgotamento-mental-crescem-1000percent-em-10-anos.ghtml

Yrkesetik är en grundpelare i Journalistförbundets arbete, men också ett område i förändring. I detta avsnitt av Journalistpodden pratar vi om vad som händer med Yrkesetiska nämnden, YEN, efter kongressens beslut i mars. Vad innebär det att nämndens rätt att klandra är pausad? Hur ska det yrkesetiska regelverket ses över? Och vad är syftet med det nya nätverket för yrkesetik?   Vi hör Erika Wiman Snäll som är journalist, förbundsstyrelseledamot och ordförande i YEN. Samt Jens Krey, ombudsman på Journalistförbundet och sekreterare i YEN   Journalistpodden leds av Petteri Flanagan Karttunen. 

With all the recent changes in the world, the market can be shaky and uncertain. How do we secure our careers during this time? Join us on #TheBIGShowTV with Yen of Career Agility International, as we figure out how to focus on what we can control, differentiate yourself and more! Stay tuned! Connect with us on Instagram: @kiss92fm @Glennn @angeliqueteo Producers: @shalinisusan97 @snailgirl2000See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode of the AdTechGod Pod, Yen Nguyen, the SVP Head of Curation at Consumable, shares her journey on focusing in on curation. She discusses the evolution of curation in the ad tech space, particularly in audio advertising, and highlights the untapped potential of digital audio. Yen emphasizes the importance of bridging the gap between traditional audio and programmatic buying, and how curation plays a crucial role in enhancing targeting and effectiveness in advertising. She also touches on future trends in ad tech, including the impact of AI and the need for innovation to create more efficient solutions for buyers. Takeaways Curation is a growing focus in the advertising industry. Yen's journey into curation was accidental but impactful. The audio advertising space has significant untapped potential. Curation is not just about supply; it's about expertise. Digital audio spending is on the rise but still underutilized. Education is key to shifting budgets towards audio advertising. Curation can bridge the gap in fragmented ad tech solutions. Innovations in AI and digital out-of-home are exciting trends. The emotional impact of audio ads can rival that of video. The future of advertising lies in making the buyer's job easier. Chapters 00:00 Introduction to Curation and Yen Nguyen 01:01 Yen's Journey in Curation 05:11 Curation's Evolution in AdTech 10:50 The Future of Audio Advertising 15:50 Bridging the Gap in Audio Advertising 19:06 The Role of Curation in AdTech 25:29 Innovations in AdTech and Future Trends Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

"Directors are authors of a production," is the vision held by Trip Cullman, director of the play, We Had a World. This beautiful play explores intergenerational relationships in a family with complicated dynamics. Starring Joanna Gleason, Andrew Barth Feldman, and Jeanine Serralles and written by Joshua Harmon. Sarah and Trip discuss the play, queer representation on stage, the importances of live theatre, and more! Trip Cullman (Director). Broadway: Cult Of Love, The Rose Tattoo, Choir Boy, Lobby Hero (Tony nom., Best Revival), Six Degrees of Separation (Tony nom., Best Revival), Significant Other. Select Off Broadway: I Can Get It For You Wholesale (Best Revival, Drama Desk and Outer Critics) (CSC); The Lonely Few, Moscow Moscow…, YEN, Punk Rock (Obie), A Funny Thing Happened… (MCC); Days Of Rage, The Layover, The Substance of Fire, Lonely I'm Not, Bachelorette, Some Men, Swimming In The Shallows (Second Stage); Unknown Soldier, The Pain Of My Belligerence, Assistance, A Small Fire (Drama Desk nom.), The Drunken City (Playwrights Horizons); Significant Other (Roundabout); Choir Boy (MTC); Murder Ballad (MTC and Union Square); The Mother, I'm Gonna Pray For You So Hard (Atlantic); Roulette (EST); The Hallway Trilogy: Nursing (Rattlestick); The Last Sunday In June (Rattlestick and Century Center); Dog Sees God (Century Center); US Drag (stageFARM); several productions with The Play Company. Select regional: Berkeley Rep, McCarter, Geffen, Arena, Alliance, Old Globe, La Jolla, South Coast Rep, Bay Street, Williamstown. Connect with GOOD SHOW! Instagram: ⁠@goodshowpodcast⁠  Tik Tok: ⁠@goodshowpodcast ⁠  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The U.S. dollar's recent rebound off 3-year lows may be short-lived, according to Thierry Wizman. Despite technical buying and profit-taking in the Euro and Yen, Wizman believes the dollar's long-term decline is far from over. He cites a shift in investor sentiment away from U.S. assets and the dollar, driven in part by concerns over the country's fiscal and monetary policies. With the Fed now expected to cut rates and inflationary pressures building, Wizman sees further volatility ahead for the currency markets.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Alex Gladstein unpacks the hidden power dynamics of financial privilege, the shifting terrain of surveillance, and why Bitcoin might be the most unexpected tool in the fight for human rights IN THIS EPISODE YOU'LL LEARN: 00:00 - Intro 08:23 - Why self-custody is essential to the philosophical core of financial freedom 13:12 - How grassroots Bitcoin movements are reshaping power dynamics 14:02 - The complex role of social media in Bitcoin advocacy 14:27 - What recent developments are challenging or reinforcing core beliefs 16:07 - How Bitcoin acts as a stealth disruptor of corrupt systems 17:29 - Real-world humanitarian uses of Bitcoin, including crisis response 18:49 - The implications of rising financial surveillance—even in democracies 19:43 - Why financial privilege blinds many in the West to global monetary injustice 21:07 - Where the next frontier of Bitcoin and human rights may emerge 49:03 - How writing a full-length book reframed the guest's understanding of scale and resistance Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Alex's X Account. Human Rights Foundation. Related Video: Princess of the Yen. Bitcoin Is A Trojan Horse For Freedom by Alex Gladstein. Alex's books: Check Your Financial Privilege and Hidden Repression: How the IMF and World Bank Sell Exploitation as Development. Check out all the books mentioned and discussed in our podcast episodes here. Enjoy ad-free episodes when you subscribe to our Premium Feed.   NEW TO THE SHOW? Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members. Follow our official social media accounts: X (Twitter) | LinkedIn | | Instagram | Facebook | TikTok. Check out our Bitcoin Fundamentals Starter Packs. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool. Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services. Get smarter about valuing businesses in just a few minutes each week through our newsletter, The Intrinsic Value Newsletter. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: SimpleMining Hardblock Found AnchorWatch Fundrise DeleteMe CFI Education The Bitcoin Way Vanta Shopify Indeed Onramp Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm

Klaar staat, net als elke doordeweekse dag, een nieuwe episode van Gamekings Daily. In deze vodcast praten twee presentatoren over de laatste ontwikkelingen in de wereld die videogames heet. En dat alles in pak-hem-beet 20 minuten tijd. Vandaag schuift Jelle aan in de studio. Samen met JJ praat hij over het succes van het huren van een PS5 in Japan en de bizarre hoeveelheid developers die Rockstar aan GTA 6 heeft werken. Als je dat aantal hoort dan begrijp je waarom wij denken dat deze game de lat op het gebied van action adventures extreem hoog gaat leggen. Deze twee onderwerpen zie en hoor je voorbijkomen in de GK Daily van dinsdag 22 april 2025.Een PS5 huren voor een tientje per maandGK Daily is er op maandag, dinsdag, woensdag en donderdag. Op de vrijdag hebben we EvdWL, de uitgebreide podcast over alle ontwikkelingen in die week. In deze editie praten Jelle en JJ over het succes van de PS5 verhuur actie in Japan. De winkelketen GEO besloot daar om klanten de mogelijkheid te bieden een console te huren, zodat ze Monster Hunter Wilds konden spelen. De zwakke positie van de Yen zorgde er onder andere voor dat veel gamers daar geen console wilden kopen. Deze actie werd een enorm succes. Moet deze service nu ook naar Nederland komen en wie zou dat dan op zich moeten nemen?Er werken 3000 mensen aan GTA 6 volgens ex-medewerker BethesdaIn het tweede onderwerp spreken de twee over een interview van ex-Bethesda developer Bryant. Die deed een boekje open over de grootte van de ontwikkelteams van Bethesda en Rockstar. Waar Bethesda het moet doen met ettelijke honderden mensen om een grote game als Elder Scrolls 6 te ontwikkelen, daar kan Rockstar volgens hem gebruik maken van zo'n 3000 man personeel om GTA 6 af te ronden. Dat is nogal een verschil en dat verschil zul je ook gaan merken in de uitvoering en het level van detail bij de twee games.Timestamps:00:00:00 Gamekings Daily van 22 april00:00:52 Beelden van de nieuwe Battlefield ijken rommelig00:11:08 EA's nieuwe Star Wars game: Zero Company

S&P futures and TSX are pointing down. US 2-year yield stays at 3.8% and 10-year yield climbing 4 bps to 4.4%. Gold settles up 2% and WTI Crude down 1.6%. Treasuries were weaker with some curve steepening, dollar index was little changed. Asia markets are mixed today. More scrutiny is on waning US exceptionalism symbolized by dollar's ongoing retreat. Bearish dollar narrative is broadening beyond tariffs to concerns about Fed's independence. Tariff headline volatility continued as President Trump on Truth Social listed eight categories that would qualify as non-tariff barriers. Japan markets are particularly sensitive to currency manipulation which was at the top of the list. Yen strengthened to a seven-month high amid growing expectations the topic will come up during the meeting between Finance Minister Kato and Treasury Secretary Bessent on the side-lines of this week's Washington G20 meeting of finance minister and central bank governors.Companies mentioned: Tesla, Alphabet, Ford Motor

Siguen las dudas tras la inesperada muerte en prisión del “feminicida de Iztacalco”. Las autoridades sólo han dicho que Miguel Cortés murió por “intoxicación” tras una caída en su celda, pero no hay claridad de qué fue lo que pasó. Los familiares de las víctimas han denunciado las irregularidades de la Fiscalía; inclusive se supo que Miguel Cortés le habló días antes de su muerte a la hermana de una de sus víctimas para decirle que no se arrepentía de nada. Las Fuerzas Armadas de Ecuador alertaron sobre un plan para asesinar al presidente, Daniel Noboa, y generar caos en el país. En esa comunicación, el Ejército ecuatoriano aseguró que hay una iniciativa para mandar sicarios desde México; cosa que la SRE rechazó categóricamente.Además… El gobierno de Estados Unidos lanzó una campaña antiinmigración en la televisión abierta mexicana; Putin ordenó una extraña tregua de 30 horas por la Pascua, aunque Ucrania acusó a Moscú de romperla; El Papa Francisco recibió en El Vaticano al vicepresidente de Estados Unidos; Utilizando el telescopio James Webb, científicos detectaron que en el lejano planeta K2-18b se encontraron moléculas de dimetilsulfuro; Terminó el segundo fin de semana de Coachella; Y En pleno Wrestlemania 41, la WWE anunció la compra de la AAA, la promotora de lucha libre más importante de México.Y para #ElVasoMedioLleno… El gobierno de México impulsa “Adopta un río” una iniciativa que busca cuidar las cuencas y caudales de MéxicoPara enterarte de más noticias como estas, síguenos en redes sociales. Estamos en todas las plataformas como @telokwento. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

En Empresas con Identidad entrevistamos a Jaime de Villa, fundador y CEO de Wannme. En Digital Business hablamos de IA, Blockchain, Web3: actualidad y tendencias con Paco González, Ceo en Core Capital. Y En la hora de las fintech tratamos el tema de la Tecnología para la Defensa y la Seguridad con Salvador Molina, Presidente de Foro ECOFIN y MAD FinTech; Alicia Montoro, DirCom y DirMark del Grupo Escribano; ⁠José Manuel Alfonso, director general de Duma Engineering Group; ⁠Ildefonso Vera, director de Innovación de Procesos y Transformación Digital de Isdefe, empresa del Ejército del Aire y con Fernando Mairata, presidente de DLT Code y Armora.

Huang Hua Yang is a former farmer and the deepest freediving athlete from the beautiful country of Taiwan. One of the deepest men in the world, he shares his freediving story and philosophy with us.In this episode we discuss:Huayang  joined us from Panglao, Philippines at the time of recording, where he was training for the Asian Freediving Cup.Comparing conditions in Panglao and Taiwan.Donny lived in Taiwan for ten years and started a freediving school there.Huayang was a farmer from the countryside close to Taoyuan, before he came to freediving in 2011.Talking of the beauty of Taiwan's Orchid Island.Shout out to Wayne and Yen at Weirdos Freediving and Wu How at Deep Soul.Huayang took his first freediving course in 2015, possibly one of the first PADI freediving courses.Huayang did his instructor course with JP Francois at Freediving Planet in Moalboal, Philippines.A question from Patreon supporter Tom Way about the freediving scene in Taiwan.Taiwanese diver Haixiang beats Alexey in DNF in competition.About the future of freediving competitions and their taking place in Asia.Huayang's journey to depth and competitions.Shout out to Huayang's coach Theo-Patrick Fourcade.What are the fundamentals of training for freediving for Huayang? How has it changed over time?Does he see any major differences in the training philosophies of Western and Asian freedivers?Comparing different training approaches of different coaches.Different athletes need different approaches.What does it take to dive deeper than 100m?Huayang's experience with lung squeeze and how to avoid it?His experiences with narcosis, how does it feel?The benefits of RV diving for training compressibility.How a week of training looks like for him at the moment.On teaching equalisation to speakers of different languages.DESERT ISLAND QUESTIONS - PATREON EXCLUSIVE CONTENTWhy does he freedive?For all episodes of the Freedive Cafe Podcast, visit www.freedivecafe.comFor freediving courses and training in Dahab, Egypt, visit www.freediveandthrive.comTo support on Patreon: www.patreon.com/freedivecafe

Marty sits down with James Check to discuss the game of chicken being played between the US and China.James on Twitter: https://x.com/_Checkmatey_Checkonchain: https://charts.checkonchain.com/Newsletter: https://newsletter.checkonchain.com/0:00 - Intro0:36 - Tariff bomb6:32 - Recession incoming9:30 - Fold & Coinkite11:08 - Yen/dollar devaluation game of chicken15:33 - Gold and Bitcoin's price floor25:02 - Unchained Event25:27 - Bull case is more likely34:15 - Thesis meeting reality43:51 - Bitcoinization of finance46:59 - Bessent reset54:26 - Closing monologueShoutout to our sponsors:Foldhttps://tftc.io/foldCoinkitehttps://coinkite.comUnchainedhttps://unchained.com/tftc/Join the TFTC Movement:Main YT Channelhttps://www.youtube.com/c/TFTC21/videosClips YT Channelhttps://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUQcW3jxfQfEUS8kqR5pJtQWebsitehttps://tftc.io/Twitterhttps://twitter.com/tftc21Instagramhttps://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/Nostrhttps://primal.net/tftcFollow Marty Bent:Twitterhttps://twitter.com/martybentNostrhttps://primal.net/martybentNewsletterhttps://tftc.io/martys-bent/Podcasthttps://www.tftc.io/tag/podcasts/

Am selbsternannten «Liberation Day» will Trump neue Zölle verkünden. «Zollkeule oder Zollhämmerchen, das ist die grosse Frage», so Jens Korte, Börsenkorrespondent SRF, New York. Die Unsicherheit lähmt die Märkte – Anleger suchen Sicherheit in Yen, Franken und Gold. SMI: -1.9%

Hosts Pastor Robert Baltodano and Pastor Lloyd Pulley  Question Timestamps:  Richie, NY (2:51) - Isn't eternal torment inconsistent with God's loving nature? Debbie, NY (8:14) - Why don't pastors who fall to sin feel the guilt I feel when I sin? Were they not filled with the Holy Spirit? Is the Holy Spirit in a person who is sinning? John, NY (13:41) - How can we not be saved by our works, but also our faith without works is dead? Ronnie, FL (18:09) - Was Adam tempted by Satan before Eve was on the scene? Bombay, YouTube (20:18) - Can you still heal someone, or did it stop during Jesus's time? Robin, ID (23:59) - What is the relationship between the parable of the new wineskins and fasting? Colten, YouTube (28:11, continued after break at 33:31) - How do I deal with my guilt and anxiety? Stacey, NY (35:04) - Why did God use different ways to make Adam, Eve, and Jesus? Laura, SC (39:07) - Is it okay to listen to the Hallow app? Vicki, NJ (42:35) - Can Christians be physically attacked by demons? Yen, email (46:12) - What does the Bible say about cousins marrying? Liz, NY (48:56) - What do you know about the Lutheran faith? What is your perspective on it? Carrie, YouTube (51:51) - Is it Biblical to have another Christian come into your home to cast a demon out? Grace, MA (53:38) - I sponsor a school that wants to purchase dream catchers, what should I think of that? Ask Your Question: 888-712-7434 Answers@bbtlive.org

In this episode, we talk about recent market volatility with the NASDAQ dropping 4% in one day, marking its largest single-day decline since 2022. We unpack what's driving this volatility, including uncertainty surrounding tariffs, Trump's ambiguous comments on recession risks, and the unraveling of the Yen carry trade. Big tech companies are feeling the pinch, with Tesla down 46% year-to-date. We also discuss the U.S. government announcement of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and what it could mean going forward. We finish by discussing the recent earnings from Costco's and Franco-Nevada. Tickets of stocks/ETFs discussed: FNV.TO, COST Check out our portfolio by going to Jointci.com Our Website Canadian Investor Podcast Network Twitter: @cdn_investing Simon’s twitter: @Fiat_Iceberg Braden’s twitter: @BradoCapital Dan’s Twitter: @stocktrades_ca Want to learn more about Real Estate Investing? Check out the Canadian Real Estate Investor Podcast! Apple Podcast - The Canadian Real Estate Investor Spotify - The Canadian Real Estate Investor Web player - The Canadian Real Estate Investor Asset Allocation ETFs | BMO Global Asset Management Sign up for Finchat.io for free to get easy access to global stock coverage and powerful AI investing tools. Register for EQ Bank, the seamless digital banking experience with better rates and no nonsense.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Es ist eine historische Entscheidung: Die Vereinigten Staaten von Amerika, die führende Volkswirtschaft der Welt, erklärt den Bitcoin zu einer strategischen Reservewährung für ihre Notenbank. Damit hat US-Präsident Donald Trump den Bitcoin auf eine Stufe mit dem Dollar, dem Euro oder dem Yen gestellt. Und der Kryptomarkt jubelt? Im Gegenteil: Er sackt ab. Von seinem Rekordhoch von 109.000 Dollar hat sich der Bitcoin weit entfernt. Ist die Bitcoin-Party an der Börse etwa schon wieder vorbei? Darüber spricht Philipp in dieser Woche mit Ulli Spankowsi, Co-Gründer der Krypto-App Bison und Digitalchef der Börse Stuttgart. Gemeinsam analysieren sie, warum Anleger enttäuscht auf die Bitcoin-Reserve reagieren, warum diese Skepsis womöglich verfrüht ist – und ob der Abverkauf am Kryptomarkt bald ein Ende finden wird. Disclaimer: Dieser Podcast ist keine Anlageberatung, sondern dient lediglich der Information und Unterhaltung. Die Hosts oder der Verlag übernehmen keine Haftung für Anlageentscheidungen, die ihr aufgrund der im Podcast gehörten Informationen trefft. Ihr habt Fragen rund ums Thema Kryptowährungen? Dann schreibt gerne eine E-Mail an philipp.frohn@wiwo.de. Gerne beantworten wir sie in einer der nächsten Folgen. *** Exklusiv für WirtschaftsWoche Bitcoin & Beyond-Hörerinnen und -Hörer gibt es außerdem hier ein besonderes Abo-Angebot: vorteil.wiwo.de/podcast-bitcoin-and-beyond/ Helfen Sie uns, unsere Podcasts weiter zu verbessern. Ihre Meinung ist uns wichtig: www.wiwo.de/zufriedenheit [Mehr über die Angebote unserer Werbepartnerinnen und -partner finden Sie HIER](http://cmk.wiwo.de/cms/articles/15602/anzeige/podcast-werbepartnerinnen/hier-gibt-s-weitere-infos-zu-den-angeboten-unserer-werbepartner-innen)

Danny Moses interviews macro strategist James Aitken, also known as the 'financial plumber.' The duo reflects on their shared history, including Aitken's tenure at UBS and AIG, where he gained deep insights into the financial system. Aitken discusses his transition to founding Aitken Advisors and the challenges of writing financial analyses from a small island. The conversation covers the current state of the markets, the impact of fiscal policy, and the importance of leveraging relationships with key financial figures like Mark Carney and Scott Bessent. The episode delves into private credit, potential systemic risks, and the evolving landscape under the Trump administration's policies. Aitken provides his perspectives on gold, Bitcoin, and the Yen, as well as the broader implications for the financial markets. -- ABOUT THE SHOW For decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners. Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34 The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Last time we spoke about the first Tientsin Incident. In September 1931, as tensions rose between China and Japan, Commander Zhang Xueliang enjoyed an opera in Beiping, unaware of the impending Mukden Incident. With senior commanders absent, Japanese forces quickly gained local support. Chiang Kai-shek ordered non-resistance, fearing conflict would ruin Northeast China. Meanwhile, Japanese officials plotted to install Puyi as a puppet emperor. Covert riots erupted in Tianjin, orchestrated by the Japanese, leaving the city in chaos as Zhang's forces struggled to maintain order against the well-armed attackers. In a tense standoff at Haiguang Temple, the Japanese military issued an ultimatum to Chinese security forces, citing threats to overseas Chinese. Wang Shuchang ordered a strategic withdrawal, but the Japanese escalated with artillery fire. Despite fierce resistance, the plainclothes attackers regrouped, leading to ongoing skirmishes. Amidst the chaos, Puyi was covertly extracted by Japanese forces, paving the way for the establishment of the puppet state of Manchukuo. Ultimately, Japan's aggression continued, deepening tensions in China.   #142 the Jinzhou Operation  Welcome to the Fall and Rise of China Podcast, I am your dutiful host Craig Watson. But, before we start I want to also remind you this podcast is only made possible through the efforts of Kings and Generals over at Youtube. Perhaps you want to learn more about the history of Asia? Kings and Generals have an assortment of episodes on history of asia and much more  so go give them a look over on Youtube. So please subscribe to Kings and Generals over at Youtube and to continue helping us produce this content please check out www.patreon.com/kingsandgenerals. If you are still hungry for some more history related content, over on my channel, the Pacific War Channel where I cover the history of China and Japan from the 19th century until the end of the Pacific War. When the Mukden Incident occurred, Zhang Xueliang was in Beiping serving in his capacity as the commander of the North China garrison. On the night of September 18, he was at the opera enjoying a performance by the famous singer Mei Lanfang. His deputies were also away from Shenyang: Wan Fulin was in Beiping, and Zhang Zuoxiang was attending his father's funeral in Jinzhou. With the absence of the senior provincial commanders during the Incident, the Japanese quickly gained cooperation from the acting commanders. In Shenyang, Yu Zhishan, the commander of the Eastern Borders Garrison, and in Changchun, acting provincial forces commander Xi Xia, both swiftly aligned themselves with the Japanese. Although the Northeastern Army had approximately 130,000 troops in the region compared to a Japanese force of 40,000 to 50,000, Chiang Kai-shek urgently issued a non-resistance order to the Northeastern troops, which Zhang Xueliang confirmed. It was actually his stance prior to September 18th, as there had been other incidents such as the Wanbaoshan Incident whereupon Zhang Xueliang sent a secret telegram to his subordinates starting on July 6, "If we go to war with Japan at this time, we will surely be defeated. If we lose, Japan will demand that we cede territory and pay compensation, and Northeast China will be ruined. We should avoid conflict as soon as possible and deal with it in the name of justice." A month after this Chiang Kai-Shek sent a telegram to Zhang Xueliang on August 16th "No matter how the Japanese army seeks trouble in Northeast China in the future, we should not resist and avoid conflict. My brother, please do not act out of anger and disregard the country and the nation. I hope you will follow my instructions." As the tensions between China and Japan increased on September 6th Zhang Xueliang sent this telegram to his subordinates "It has been found that the Japanese diplomatic situation is becoming increasingly tense. We must deal with everything and strive for stability. No matter how the Japanese try to cause trouble, we must be tolerant and not resist them to avoid causing trouble. I hope you will send a secret telegram to all your subordinates to pay close attention to this matter." Thus the Manchurian commanders were already well versed in what their stance would be. Chiang Kai-shek's hesitation to engage in combat is understandable; he was concerned about factions opposing him in South China, the potential reformation of the alliance between Feng Yuxiang and Yan Xishan in North China, and the threat posed by the CCP in Jiangxi, leaving him unable to confront another adversary. Zhang Xueliang's situation was also not as advantageous as it might seem. Although he commanded nearly 250,000 men, only 100,000 to 130,000 were stationed in the Northeast, with the remainder in Hebei. Both Chiang Kai-Shek and Zhang Xueliang most likely believed the League of Nations or the Wakatsuki government in Tokyo would restrain the occupiers eventually, so they were biding their time. According to Nelson Johnson, the American Minister in China, Counselor Yano of the Japanese Legation in Beiping had informal discussions with Zhang, suggesting that Jinzhou would inevitably succumb to the Japanese and that “the Tokyo Foreign Office would gain prestige and be better able to shape events to China's advantage if the Chinese avoided a clash by withdrawing voluntarily.” It was also implied that some of Zhang's supporters might be reinstated in official roles in the new government in Shenyang. Johnson concluded, “Chang is believed to have been led to his present decision by these inducements, along with the bitter hostility toward him at Nanking and the lack of support from that quarter.” In essence, Zhang was effectively coerced into non-resistance by both sides. Certainly, in December 1931, with no hope for international intervention and the Nanjing government in turmoil following Chiang Kai-shek's temporary resignation, Zhang's options were severely limited. The Kwantung Army received clear instructions not to move beyond the South Manchurian railway zone, which hindered the plans of Lt. Colonel Ishiwara Kanji, the architect of the Manchurian invasion. After securing the region around the South Manchurian railway, Ishiwara focused his attention on Jinzhou. Following the fall of Mukden, Jinzhou became the administrative headquarters and civil government of Zhang Xueliang, making it a focal point for Chinese forces. Jinzhou is the southernmost part of Liaoning province, directly enroute to Shanhaiguan, the critical pass that separates Manchuria from China proper. It was the furthest point Zhang Xueliang could establish an HQ while still holding foot within Manchuria and thus became the defacto “last stand” or “guanwai” outside the Shanhaiguan pass for Zhang Xueliangs Northeastern army. Japanese sources indicate that Zhang Xueliang began covertly instructing local governments in Manchuria to comply with and pay taxes to Jinzhou. He also dispatched spies to Japanese-occupied territories and was conspiring to assassinate Japanese officials and those opposed to Chiang Kai-shek. Obviously Jinzhou had to be seized to control Liaoning and thus all of Manchuria. The Japanese first tried to bully Jinzhou into submission by bombing it. On October 8th, Ishiwara commanded five captured Chinese aircraft from the 10th Independent Air Squadron, flying from Mukden to conduct a raid on Jinzhou, claiming it was merely a reconnaissance mission. They flew over Jinzhou at approximately 1:40 PM and dropped 75 bombs weighing 25 kg each, targeting the barracks of the 28th Division, government buildings, and Zhang Xueliang's residence. Additionally, they took photographs of the Chinese defensive positions. The attack served two main purposes: to intimidate Zhang Xueliang and to send a message to Tokyo HQ. The bombing of Jinzhou caused an uproar in Tokyo and shocked the League of Nations, which had previously been indifferent to the situation. Consequently, Tokyo HQ felt compelled to retroactively approve the Kwantung attacks while simultaneously demanding an end to further actions. Rumors began to circulate that Ishiwara and his associate Itagaki aimed to establish an independent Manchuria as a base for a coup d'état against the Japanese government, intending to initiate a Showa Restoration. On October 18th, War Minister Minami Jiro sent a telegram to the Kwantung Army, ordering them to halt offensives in Manchuria and dispatched Colonel Imamura Hitoshi to ensure Ishiwara and Itagaki ceased their reckless operations. However, when Hitoshi met with the two men at a restaurant in Mukden, they dismissed him. In reality, Ishiwara and Itagaki's plans were in jeopardy, but in early November, they found a pretext for action after Ma Zhanshan's forces damaged the Nenjiang railway bridge. This hostility provided them with justification to invade Heilongjiang alongside their allies, led by General Zhang Haipeng. Following the occupation of the north, a new opportunity arose in the southwest. The "first Tientsin incident" erupted on November 9th, initiated by Colonel Doihara Kenji with assistance from some Anti-Chiang Kai-shek Chinese. A small contingent launched an attack on the peace preservation corps in Tientsin. Doihara devised this plan with the intention of creating chaos to kidnap the former Manchu emperor Puyi, allowing the Kwantung army to later install him as the ruler of a new Manchurian state. Although Doihara sought reinforcements from Tokyo HQ, his request was denied, prompting him to turn to the Kwantung army for support. They agreed to coordinate an attack on Tientsin but insisted that a pretext be established first. To execute this plan, they would need to capture Jinzhou initially. A second Tientsin incident occurred on November 26th, when Chinese soldiers attacked the Japanese barracks in Tientsin at 8:20 PM, marking another false flag operation orchestrated by Doihara. Upon hearing the news, General Honjo Shigeru chose to support the Tientsin army, which they believed was in peril. The 4th Mixed Brigade and the 2nd Infantry Battalion of the 2nd Division, comprising 10,000 troops, advanced toward 13 armored vehicles stationed along the Peiping-Mukden railway. The Kwantung Army also requested assistance from the Korean Army, and Commander Hayashi organized a mixed brigade to cross the border. Of course in order to provide assistance at Tientsin meant heading through the Shanhaiguan pass and this meant going through Jinzhou. Tokyo General HQ was yet again thrown into consternation by the latest aggravation of the Manchurian crisis. Incensed by the Kwantung Army's “lack of sincerity in submitting to the discipline of Tokyo”. The force got within 30km of Jinzhou when War Minister General Jiro Minami ordered them to immediately withdraw to a line east of the Liao river. Ironically what actually made the Kwantung Army comply was not so much Tokyo's authority but rather the refusal or foot dragging of the Korea Army, who sent a message that they were unwilling to attack Jinzhou. The Kwantung army continued on getting into some skirmishes with Chinese defenders around the Taling River and Takushan as Tokyo HQ sent countless furious messages demanding they withdraw from the Jinzhou area and by the 28th they finally did. Facing the real possibility that the Jinzhou operation might devolve into a fiasco without reinforcements, Ishiwara relented, remarking at the time “Tokyo has collapsed before Jinzhou”. There was another factor at play as well. Some have speculated Ishiwara tossed his hand on the field initiative because he was playing for time, expecting the Japanese government to fall and the substitution of a new team at central army HQ, one perhaps more compliant to the aggressive Kwantung Army.    While the Japanese forces pulled back into the SMR zone, Prime Minister Wakatsuki Reijiro began negotiations with Chiang Kai-Shek's Nanjing government, through the League of Nations, suggesting the Jinzhou area be declared a neutral area. The Chinese initially refused, and while the Kwantung Army declared they would not attack, they still sent aircraft to circle Jinzhou. The Chinese, British, American, and French governments were willing to withdraw their troops from Jinzhou to Shanhaiguan if the Manchurian incident was resolved and Japan committed to not infringing upon the area.    Consequently, Tokyo's headquarters supported this approach and instructed the Kwantung Army to withdraw. Although Zhang Xueliang had assured that his forces would leave Jinzhou by December 7th, this did not occur. As a result, the Japanese began discussions to establish Jinzhou as a neutral zone. The Kwantung army intercepted two Chinese telegrams indicating Zhang Xueliang was strengthening the defenses at Jinzhou and that Nanjing was requesting he not pull his men out. The telegrams were sent to Tokyo HQ who agreed the Chinese were acting in a treacherous manner. The Japanese ambassador then told US Secretary Henry Stimson  “it would be very difficult to withhold the army from advancing again.” Stimson replied “ such actions would convince the American public that Japan's excuse for her incursions, namely that she was combating bandit attacks, was a ruse to destroy the last fragment of Chinese authority in Manchuria. It would be extremely difficult to ask China to withdraw her army from her own territory.” Thus began the Jinzhou Crisis.   On the same day the Japanese ambassador was meeting Stimson in Washington, the Nationalist minister of finance, T.V Soong sent a telegram to Zhang Xueliang advising “any Japanese attack on Jinzhou should be offered utmost resistance.” Also the American Minister in China, Nelson Johnson publicly expressed the view that Zhang Xueliang would resist at Jinzhou if attacked “if only to reassure the students and public in general, some of whom clamor for military action, despite the attitude of his old generals of the Fengtian clique who desire his resignation to enable them to sell out to the Japanese”.   It had become clear to all observers that the Japanese were intent on capturing Jinzhou, whether they were justified to do so or not. Their tactics of intimidation became even bolder as they began dropping air torpedoes on disused sections of railway track on December 10th, disrupting traffic along the Beiping-Shenyang rail route and hinting that the nearby populated areas might be next. Ishiwara's hopes came true on December 13th, whence Prime Minister Wakatsuki resigned on December 11th, having failed to control the Kwantung Army. A new cabinet was formed under Prime Minister Tsuyoshi Inukai, whom resumed negotiations with Nanjing, but then on December 15th, Chiang Kai-Shek resigned as chairman of the Nanjing government, leading Sun Ke to lead a weak interim government. Preoccupied with its own survival, the Nanjing government had no time to deal with the Jinzhou crisis.   Meanwhile War Minister Minami and Chief of staff Kanaya who had tried to moderate the Kwantung Army's aggressive initiatives had been replaced by Araki Sadao, a significantly more aggressive leader who happened to be the leading figure of the Kodoha faction. His counterpart was Prince Kan'in. With these new appointments, the atmosphere in Tokyo general HQ had changed dramatically. The new team elected to change the framing of the situation, they were not performing offensives against Chinese forces, but rather “suppressing bandits”. On December 15th, Tokyo HQ telegraphed Mukden instructing the Kwantung Army to “synchronize an assault on Jinzhou with an attack upon bandits”. Tokyo HQ even agreed to send some reinforcements from Korea and Japan. The 20th IJA division, the 38th mixed brigade of the 19th division crossed the border from Korea and the 8th mixed brigade, 10th division came over from Japan. With this the Kwantung army had been bolstered to around 60,450men.    On December 17th, the Japanese launched attacks on what they referred to as "soldier bandits" in Fak'u and Ch'angtuhsien, which was actually a precursor to their assault on Jinzhou. The following day, December 18th, Japanese aircraft bombed Daonglio, resulting in the deaths of three Chinese civilians and causing widespread panic in the city. The Japanese actions were all the more effective when concentrated with the absolute paralysis that had gripped China. Sun Ke was too preoccupied with the survival of his own government and had neither the time nor resources to spare for Manchuria. In addition, Stimson's strong words in private to the Japanese ambassador belied the State Department's public attitude toward interference in the conflict. On December 21st Hawkling Yen, the Chinese charge in Washington met with Stanley Hornback, the chief of the department of Far Eastern Affairs. Yen told Hornback that a Japanese attack on Jinzhou was imminent and asked the US to “protest in anticipate of it”. Hornbeck refused, stating the State Department was “already publicly on record with regard to the matter”. No other Western power was ready to advocate any strong measures against the Japanese either.   On the 22nd, the Japanese HQ at Shenyang announced they would soon begin an anti-bandit advance west of the Liao River and would remove any who interfered with said operation. They also added that if any Chinese forces at Jinzhou withdrew they would be left unmolested. By December 26th, all preparations for the assault on Jinzhou were finalized. On December 28th, Honjo initiated an "anti-bandit" campaign west of the Liao River. While Honjo publicly claimed they were merely "clearing the country of bandits,”. As the Japanese forces and their collaborationist allies spread across the South Manchurian railway area to eliminate remaining pockets of resistance, the 12th Division, led by Lt. General Jiro Tamon advanced from Mukden toward Jinzhou, supported by numerous bomber squadrons. Japanese intelligence estimated that Zhang Xueliang had 84,000 troops defending the city, along with 58 artillery pieces and two distinct defensive lines. The first line, located 20 miles north of Jinzhou, consisted of trenches designed to impede the Japanese advance at the Taling River Bridge on the Peiping-Mukden Railway. The second line was a series of earthworks and fortifications completely surrounding Jinzhou. The temperature was -30 degrees, and the Imperial Japanese Army troops were dressed in white winter camouflage uniforms. IJA reconnaissance aircraft reported approximately 3,000 Honghuzi were waiting to ambush them in Panshan County. Tamon's forces quickly overcame the alleged Honghuzi in a series of small skirmishes and continued their march toward Goubangzi, 50 km north of Jinzhou. It should be noted, many question whether the Honghuzi were real or simply local Chinese the Japanese coerced into action to justify their advance. By December 31, the Japanese vanguard had reached within 15 km of Jinzhou, along the banks of the Talin River. Tamon paused to allow the rest of the 2nd Division to catch up. Subsequently, Tamon's troops began setting up an intricate system of microphones to broadcast the sounds of the impending battle to Tokyo. This tactic appeared to be an attempt to demoralize the defenders, which proved effective as Zhang Xueliang's forces began to withdraw. On December 30, Zhang Xueliang had issued the order to retreat from Jinzhou. Two days later, the American Minister in China, Nelson Johnson, reported the following scene: “Jinzhou Railway station resembles beehive, every possible car being pressed into service and loaded with troops, animals, baggage, to last inch space.” The last Chinese troop train departed Jingzhou at 11 am on January 1st carrying away the final remnants of Zhang Xueliang's authority in Manchuria. The assault on Jinzhou occurred at a particularly inopportune moment for China. Chiang Kai-shek was temporarily out of office, lacking the full support of the Nanjing government and many generals. It is likely that Chiang Kai-shek understood that Zhang Xueliang's forces in Jinzhou would be significantly outmatched and could be annihilated. His priority was to prevent the situation from escalating into an official war, allowing him to strengthen China's military capabilities for a counteroffensive. Following the fall of Jinzhou, the northern China army retreated south of the Great Wall into Hebei Province. The Japanese then occupied Shanhaiguan, securing complete control over southern Manchuria. Despite the fall of Jinzhou there was still one last holdout in Manchuria. After Ma Zhanshan was driven out of Qiqihar by the Japanese, he led his troops northeast to establish a new HQ in Hailun where he was still technically ruling Heilongjiang province. Ma Zhanshan had gained international recognition as a resistance hero following his ill-fated battle at Qiqihar. The Kwantung Army took note of his fame and adjusted their strategies accordingly. Komai Tokuzo, the head of the Kwantung Board of Control, suggested that bringing Ma Zhanshan into their ranks would provide a significant propaganda advantage. To persuade him to negotiate with the Kwantung Army, they sent a local factory owner, Han Yunje. On December 7th, Colonel Itagaki Seishiro met with Ma Zhanshan in Hailun. Itagaki expressed that the Japanese aimed for two objectives: peace in East Asia and full cooperation between the Chinese and Japanese. He also mentioned that the officers of the Kwantung Army were impressed by Ma's remarkable bravery and were willing to grant him military command over Heilongjiang, provided they reached an agreement. In response, Ma Zhanshan stated that his forces had acted solely in self-defense and that he was bound by the orders of the Nanjing government. Itagaki then suggested Ma Zhanshan might be appointed military commander of the province under the provincial governor in Qiqihar, Zhang Jinghui. To this Ma Zhanshan replied “as Hailun is not very far from Harbin, he could consult with General Zhang Jinghui over the telephone or pay a call on the latter in person, and that a second trip to Hailun by the Japanese representative would not be necessary.” Despite Ma's position, Itagaki felt satisfied with the meeting, believing that Ma Zhanshan might align with them. However, he was constrained by anti-Japanese colleagues like his chief of staff Xie Ke and battalion commander Tang Fengjia. The situation shifted significantly for Ma Zhanshan when Zhang Xueliang withdrew his forces from Jinzhou. On December 7th, Itagaki and Ma met once more, during which Ma expressed his desire to serve as both the military leader and governor of Heilongjiang. Unbeknownst to the Japanese, Ma Zhanshan was secretly in discussions with another resistance leader, General Ding Chao. When Ma Zhanshan initiated his resistance against the Japanese, Ding Chao decided to take similar action in the northern city of Harbin. Harbin serves as the gateway to Northeast China and is the political, economic, and cultural hub of North Manchuria. It functions not only as the center of the Sino-Soviet co-managed Middle East Railway but also as an international marketplace where Chinese and foreigners coexist. The city houses the Special Administrative Region of the Three Eastern Provinces (with Daoli under this region and Daowai belonging to Jilin Province). Following the Mukden Incident, the Japanese army considered attacking Harbin; however, concerns about potential Soviet interference led to the plan being halted by Army Minister Minami Jiro. Harbin had largely remained peaceful, and the Japanese maintained control by appointing the puppet General Xi Qia as the governor of Kirin province. Together with Li Du, Xing Zhangqing, Zhao Yi, and Feng Zhanhai, Ding Chao formed the Kirin self-defense army to thwart the takeover of Harbin and Kirin province. Ma Zhanshan supported Ding Chao, and both generals kept in touch with Zhang Xueliang and Chiang Kai-shek, who could only offer limited support. In November of the same year, the Jilin Provincial Anti-Japanese Government, chaired by Cheng Yun, was established in Bin County. Feng Zhanhai, the head of the guard regiment at the Northeast Frontier Defense Army's deputy commander-in-chief office in Jilin, refused to surrender to the Japanese forces. He rallied over 3,000 members of his regiment to resist the Japanese and rebel forces. They marched from Yongji County in Jilin Province to Shulan County, where they joined forces with the national salvation armies led by Gong Changhai and Yao Bingqian, which were based on green forest armed groups, to create the Jilin Anti-Japanese National Salvation Army, with Feng as the commander. On November 12, the Jilin Provincial Provisional Government was established in Bin County . Feng Zhanhai was appointed as the garrison commander and commander of the 1st Brigade. The units led by Gong and Yao were reorganized into cavalry brigades under Feng's command. This series of anti-Japanese actions significantly boosted the fighting spirit of the people in Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces. To launch an attack on Harbin, the Japanese Kwantung Army first needed to "punish" the anti-Japanese armed forces by force. To eliminate Feng's anti-Japanese forces, the Japanese puppet authorities dispatched Yu Shencheng, the commander of the Jilin "bandit suppression" unit, to lead the puppet army in an offensive aimed at seizing Harbin as a base to control the Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces. Feng Zhanhai's troops strategically abandoned Shulan City to lure the enemy deeper into the area. The puppet army fell into a trap and launched a major assault on Yao Bingqian's brigade stationed in Shuiquliu, which fiercely resisted the attack. On the same day, Gong Changhai's brigade maneuvered around to the rear of the puppet army for a surprise attack, while Yao's brigade counterattacked from the front. The puppet army's Ma Xilin brigade retreated, unable to be halted by the Japanese supervisory team. At this point, Feng Zhanhai led another brigade into the fray, pursuing Ma's brigade. After another seven hours of intense fighting, Shulan was retaken. In this battle, the garrison inflicted nearly 1,000 casualties on Japanese and puppet troops, captured hundreds, and saw many puppet soldiers defect. The battles of Shuiqu and Shulan were thus victorious. On the 16th, Yu Shencheng's puppet forces were defeated by the 25th Brigade of the Northeast Army in Yushu. Due to the precarious situation in Shulan, Feng Zhanhai had no choice but to abandon Shulan City and retreat his troops north of Wuchang. On the 19th, seeking urgently needed funds for his troops, Feng Zhanhai led a battalion from Acheng to Lalinkang, where they were surrounded by a significant number of Japanese and puppet troops. The following day, with the help of reinforcements, they managed to repel the Japanese and puppet forces. However, the troops suffered over 200 casualties and were compelled to leave Lalinkang and return to Acheng. On the 25th, Feng and Li moved their forces to the eastern suburbs of Harbin, with the 22nd, 26th, and 28th Brigades announcing their support in succession.On the morning of the 26th, Feng and Li entered the city from four directions, forcibly disarming five police brigades and seizing more than 3,000 firearms along with a number of heavy weapons. They stationed the 26th and 28th Brigades and one regiment in the Shanghao area, while Feng Zhanhai's four brigades and two detachments were positioned in the Sankeshu and Nangang areas. The 22nd Brigade was assigned to Shuangchengbao, preparing to defend against a Japanese assault.  Meanwhile the Japanese were still trying to win over Ma Zhanshan. This prompted our old friend Doihara to ask Xi Qia to advance his new “Jilin Army” to Harbin and then to Hailun. However in their way was the Jilin Self-Defense force of General Ding Chao and General Li Du had deployed his forces between Xi Qia and Harbin. On the 24th, representatives from Li Du and Ding Chao participated in a meeting with Ma Zhanshan's officers, convincing them to attempt to retake Qiqihar and defend Harbin for the resistance. When Xiqia's "New Jilin Army" finally advanced to Shuangcheng on the 25th, Zhang Xueliang instructed Ma Zhanshan and Ding Chao to abandon negotiations and begin fighting on the morning of the 26th. Kenji Doihara ultimately failed to intimidate the Chinese further, as his ally Xicha's troops encountered stiff resistance from Ding Chao's troops. Later that afternoon, Japanese aircraft dropped leaflets over Harbin, openly demanding that the anti-Japanese forces withdraw from the city immediately. The Japanese Consulate in Harbin also issued a notice to various foreign consulates, stating that the Japanese army would enter Harbin at 3:00 PM on the 28th. As the New Jilin army advanced towards Shuangcheng, this signaled to the Chinese resistance fighters that an attack was imminent. Zhang Xueliang instructed Generals Ma Zhanshan and Ding Chao to halt negotiations and prepare to make a stand. By late January, the Kirin Self-Defense Corps had grown to 30,000 members, organized into six brigades. Ding Chao fortified defensive positions between General Xi Qia's advancing troops and Harbin. Xi Qia was caught off guard by the well-organized resistance forces, resulting in heavy losses for his army, which was unable to break through. In desperation, Xi Qia sought assistance from the Kwantung Army, but they needed a justification to intervene. Once again, Colonel Doihara Kenji orchestrated a false flag operation. He incited a riot in Harbin that resulted in the deaths of one Japanese individual and three Koreans. Using the pretext that Japanese citizens were in danger, the 2nd Division under Lt. General Jiro Tamon began its advance toward Harbin from Jinzhou on the 28th. However, severe winter weather delayed their transportation. To complicate matters further, the Soviets denied Japanese trains access to Harbin via their section of the Chinese Eastern Railway, citing a breach of neutrality. The entire Manchurian incident had escalated tensions between the USSR and Japan. When they invaded Heilongjiang, there were genuine concerns about potential Soviet intervention, especially with their presence in Harbin. However, at the last moment, the Soviets agreed to allow transit on January 30th. Back on the 26, 1932, Feng Zhanhai and Li Du, the commander of the Yilan garrison, entered Harbin. Early on the 27th, Yu Shencheng, the commander of the puppet Jilin "bandit suppression," ordered two brigades to attack the Shanghao, Sankeshu, and Nangang areas. Japanese aircraft bombed the Sankeshu and Nangang regions. The two brigades tasked with defending the area fought valiantly, resulting in intense combat. Soon after, Feng Zhanhai and his reserve team joined the fray, launching a political offensive alongside their fierce attacks. The puppet army struggled to hold its ground and retreated to Lalincang. The defending troops in Shanghao fought tenaciously, inflicting heavy casualties on both Japanese and puppet forces, shooting down one plane, and attempting to persuade puppet army commander Tian Desheng to lead a revolt. By evening, the puppet army had been driven back. On the morning of the 28th, the anti-Japanese forces advanced to the Jile Temple and Confucian Temple, capturing advantageous positions near Xinfatun with artillery support. The cavalry brigade flanked the puppet army and launched a vigorous assault, leading to the collapse and retreat of the puppet forces towards Acheng. Gong Changhai led the cavalry in pursuit for 15 kilometers, capturing a significant number of puppet troops. After two days of fierce fighting on the 27th and 28th, the initial invasion of Harbin by Japanese and puppet troops was successfully repelled. Due to the defeat of Yu Shencheng and other puppet forces, the Japanese Kwantung Army launched a direct assault on Harbin on the morning of the28th, under the pretext of "protecting overseas Chinese." They ordered Hasebe, commander of the 3rd Brigade of the Kwantung Army, to lead the 4th Regiment, an artillery battalion, and two tanks on a train from Changchun to Harbin for combat. On the29th, another combat order was issued: the 2nd Division was to assemble in Changchun and then be transported to Harbin by truck. Part of the 4th Mixed Brigade was also moved from Qiqihar to Anda and Zhaodong by truck to support the 2nd Division from the north of Harbin. The 1st, 3rd, 8th, and 9th Squadrons of the Kwantung Army Flying Team were tasked with covering the assembly, advance, and attack of the 2nd Division. Hasebe's 4th Regiment departed from Changchun by train, but due to extensive damage to the railway caused by the Northeast Army, their train was attacked by the Northeast Army at dawn on the 29th as it reached the Laoshaogou area on the south bank of the Songhua River. The Japanese forces quickly shifted to an offensive strategy and, despite ongoing resistance, managed to reach Shitouchengzi Village north of the Sancha River that night. On the night of January 29, Zhao Yi's brigade received word of the Japanese assault on Harbin and immediately prepared for battle. At dawn on January 30, Brigade Commander Zhao Yi led six battalions in a light advance, launching a surprise attack on Shilipu, where they decisively defeated the puppet army's Liu Baolin Brigade, capturing over 700 soldiers and seizing more than 600 weapons. They then returned to Shuangchengbao to prepare for the annihilation of the advancing Japanese forces. Around 8:00 PM, the 3rd Brigade of the Japanese Army, along with the Changgu Detachment and two military vehicles, arrived at Shuangcheng Station, intending to camp there and attack Harbin the following day. Zhao Yi's troops set up an ambush in the area. As the Japanese forces disembarked and assembled to plan their attack on Harbin, the ambushing troops took advantage of their unpreparedness, launching a surprise attack from three sides. They unleashed heavy firepower, forcing the enemy back onto the platform before engaging in close combat with bayonets and grenades. The Japanese were caught off guard and suffered significant casualties. The next day, the Japanese dispatched reinforcements from Changchun, supported by aircraft, artillery, and tanks, to assault Shuangchengbao. Brigade Zhao found himself trapped in the isolated city, suffering over 600 casualties, including the regiment commander, and was ultimately forced to abandon Shuangchengbao and retreat to Harbin. With Shuangcheng captured, Harbin was left vulnerable. The Self-Defense Army stationed the majority of its troops in the southern, southeastern, and southwestern regions of Harbin, including Guxiangyuetun, Bingyuan Street, Old Harbin City, and Lalatun. On the same day, several commanders convened: Li Du, the garrison commander of Yilan and leader of the 24th Brigade; Feng Zhanhai, commander of the Jilin Provincial Security Army; Xing Zhanqing, commander of the 26th Brigade; Zhao Yi, commander of the 22nd Brigade; Ding Chao, acting commander of the Railway Protection Army and leader of the 28th Brigade; and Wang Zhiyou, director of the Jilin Police Department. They agreed to establish the Jilin Provincial Self-Defense Army, appointing Li Du as commander, Feng Zhanhai as deputy commander, and Wang Zhiyou as the commander-in-chief of the front line. They decided to utilize the 22nd, 24th, 26th, and 28th Brigades for the defense of Harbin, while Feng Zhanhai would lead the 1st Brigade and other units in a flanking maneuver against Jilin and Changchun to thwart the Japanese advance. On February 3, 1932, various units of the Japanese 2nd Division arrived in the Weitanggou River area. Under the command of Duomen, the division initiated an assault on the Self-Defense Army's outposts located outside Harbin. The 3rd Infantry Brigade of the 2nd Division, alongside Yu Shencheng, the commander of the pseudo-Jilin "bandit suppression" forces, led an attack with five brigades as the right flank against Chinese defenders in the Qinjiagang, Nangang, and Shanghao regions. Meanwhile, the 15th Infantry Brigade of the Japanese Army formed the left flank, targeting Guxiangtun via Balibao along the Songhua River. Following the conflict, all outposts of the Self-Defense Army were lost, forcing them to retreat to their primary positions. On the morning of February 4th, the Japanese forces launched a full-scale attack, engaging the Self-Defense Army in battle. By afternoon, the Japanese had positioned themselves on both sides of the railway, south of Guxiang Yuetun, Yongfatun, and Yangmajia. The 3rd Brigade was stationed east of the railway, while the 15th Brigade took position to the west. After a preparatory artillery barrage, the Japanese forces commenced their assault. The Jilin Self-Defense Army defended tenaciously, utilizing fortifications and village structures, and concentrated their artillery fire on the advancing enemy, inflicting significant casualties.   Despite their efforts, the Japanese attack was initially repelled, prompting them to adopt a defensive stance. By 16:00, the area from Yangmajia to Yongfatun had fallen to the Japanese. The Self-Defense Army continued to resist fiercely, but the Japanese intensified their assaults. The left flank launched a vigorous attack on Guxiangtun. The 28th Brigade of the Self-Defense Army, defending this area, utilized civilian structures and walls for their defense. However, brigade commander Wang Ruihua fled under pressure, leading to a loss of command and forcing the troops to abandon their positions and retreat into the city. Simultaneously, the Japanese right flank aggressively targeted the defense of the 26th Brigade of the Self-Defense Army. Despite the desperate efforts of brigade commander Xing Zhanqing and his troops, they were ultimately compelled to retreat to the river dam at Shiliudao Street due to inferior equipment. Around this time, the western and southern defense lines under Wang Zhiyou's command began to fall one after another. In this critical situation, Commander-in-Chief Li Du personally went to the front lines to organize the troops and establish a third defensive line on the city's edge. They fought until nightfall, successfully halting the Japanese advance. At dawn on February 5th the Self-Defense Army initiated a counteroffensive. The artillery first conducted preparatory fire, targeting the positions of the Japanese 3rd Brigade located east of the railway. Following this, the infantry launched their attack. The Japanese troops on the front lines found themselves in a precarious situation. In response, Jiro Tamon, the commander of the 2nd Division, urgently ordered artillery to intercept the Self-Defense Army's counterattack and deployed the tank and reserve units to assist. Four squadrons from the air force took off from a temporary forward airfield in Shuangcheng, alternating between bombing and strafing to support the ground troops. The battle was intensely fierce, resulting in heavy casualties on both sides. Lacking air support and facing significant threats from Japanese aircraft, the Self-Defense Army retreated to the area east of Harbin by the afternoon of the 5th. The Japanese forces then entered Harbin, leading to its immediate capture. On the 6th, the remaining self-defense forces learned of Harbin's fall and decided to abandon their original plan for a surprise attack against the Japanese army. Instead, they returned to Binxian and Fangzheng. During their retreat, they gathered some stragglers who had fled from Harbin and proceeded to Fangzheng County to regroup with Li Du. General Ding Chao's forces were compelled to retreat northeast along the Sungari River, while Japanese aircraft attacked them from above. After a grueling 17-hour battle, Ding Chao's army ultimately faced defeat. Following this loss, Ma Zhanshan made the decision to defect. On February 16, General Honjo held a conference for the Northeast Political Affairs Committee in Mukden, attended by senior Chinese officials of the new regime, including Zhang Jinghui, Ma Zhanshan, Zang Shiyi, Xi Qia, and others. The conference aimed to assign delegates to roles in the soon-to-be-established “Manchukuo.” On February 14, Ma Zhanshan was appointed governor of Heilongjiang province and received gold worth one million dollars. On February 27th, Ding Chao proposed a ceasefire, marking the official end of Chinese resistance in Manchuria. On March 1st, Puyi would be installed as the ruler of the new state of Manchukuo. I would like to take this time to remind you all that this podcast is only made possible through the efforts of Kings and Generals over at Youtube. Please go subscribe to Kings and Generals over at Youtube and to continue helping us produce this content please check out www.patreon.com/kingsandgenerals. If you are still hungry after that, give my personal channel a look over at The Pacific War Channel at Youtube, it would mean a lot to me. With the fall of Jinzhou, Zhang Xueliang had effectively been kicked out of Manchuria. With the loss of Harbin, came the loss of any significant resistance to the Japanese invasion of Manchuria. Japan had conquered the northeast and now would enthrone the last Emperor of the Qing Dynasty forming the puppet state of Manchukuo. 

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami break down the top market headlines and bring you stock market trade ideas for Thursday, March 6th. Timecodes 0:00 - Yields 8:20 - SPX & Banks 20:40 - NDX & AI Trade 29:50 - CoreWeave + MSFT 34:20 - Dollar, Yen & BTC 40:00 - COST -- Learn more about FactSet: https://www.factset.com/lp/mrkt-call Subscribe to our newsletter: https://riskreversalmedia.beehiiv.com/subscribe MRKT Call is brought to you by our presenting sponsors CME Group, FactSet & SoFi Watch MRKT Call LIVE at 1pm M-TH on YouTube Sign up for our emails Follow us on Twitter @MRKTCall Follow @GuyAdami on Twitter Follow @CarterBWorth on Twitter Follow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMedia Like us on Facebook @RiskReversal Watch all of our videos on YouTube

Star Wars Celebration Japan announced their final set of badges and guests in advance of the April convention. We are discussing all the announcements in this week's news.   In this fully armed and operational episode of Podcast Stardust, we discuss: The final eight badges released for Star Wars Celebration Japan and an examination of the art, Which badge we would choose if given a choice, The final guest announcements for Star Wars Celebration, What the cost for autographs and photo ops are for Celebration after converting Yen to the US dollar, The feeling that there aren't as many guests for the Celebration as there are for Star Wars Celebration events held in the United States at Europe, and Some speculation on what we might expect at Star Wars Celebration. Thanks for joining us for another episode! Subscribe to Podcast Stardust for all your Star Wars news, reviews, and discussion wherever you get your podcasts. And please leave us a five star review on Apple Podcasts.   Find Jay and her cosplay adventures on J.Snips Cosplay on Instagram.   Join us for real time discussion on the RetroZap Discord Server here: RetroZap Discord. Follow us on social media: Twitter | Facebook | Instagram | Pinterest | YouTube. T-shirts, hoodies, stickers, masks, and posters are available on TeePublic. Find all episodes on RetroZap.com.

This week, we discuss the big takeaways from the Fed Meeting Minutes, Bessent's remarks on Treasury issuance and inflation, and the near-term liquidity picture. We also delve into oil and energy policy, the limited upside in crypto right now, and much more. Enjoy! — Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ziABEksWyIgTom9idgy5HhVyThbd3Kyb/view?usp=sharing — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york __ SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:33) FOMC Meeting Minutes (06:29) Fed's Balance Sheet and Treasury Purchases (16:20) Skale Ad (16:42) Fed's Balance Sheet and Treasury Purchases (Con't) (20:15) Inflation Data and Fed's Perspective (22:41) Skale Ad (23:12) Liquidity Concerns and QT (27:07) Inflation and Economic Growth (29:11) Oil & Global Energy Policies (32:21) Microsoft CEO's Take on AI and CapEx (33:43) Yen & DAX (38:09) Crypto Market Update __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode, we look at how recent movement in the Yen may impact the Bank of Japan's approach to rate strategy with Mary Nicola, Bloomberg MLIV Strategist in Singapore. Plus - a look at how disappointing earnings from Walmart rattled investors after retail sales data signaled an abrupt pullback by US consumers. We hear from Vance Howard, CEO and Portfolio Manager at Howard Capital Management.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

If you're in SF, join us tomorrow for a fun meetup at CodeGen Night!If you're in NYC, join us for AI Engineer Summit! The Agent Engineering track is now sold out, but 25 tickets remain for AI Leadership and 5 tickets for the workshops. You can see the full schedule of speakers and workshops at https://ai.engineer!It's exceedingly hard to introduce someone like Bret Taylor. We could recite his Wikipedia page, or his extensive work history through Silicon Valley's greatest companies, but everyone else already does that.As a podcast by AI engineers for AI engineers, we had the opportunity to do something a little different. We wanted to dig into what Bret sees from his vantage point at the top of our industry for the last 2 decades, and how that explains the rise of the AI Architect at Sierra, the leading conversational AI/CX platform.“Across our customer base, we are seeing a new role emerge - the role of the AI architect. These leaders are responsible for helping define, manage and evolve their company's AI agent over time. They come from a variety of both technical and business backgrounds, and we think that every company will have one or many AI architects managing their AI agent and related experience.”In our conversation, Bret Taylor confirms the Paul Buchheit legend that he rewrote Google Maps in a weekend, armed with only the help of a then-nascent Google Closure Compiler and no other modern tooling. But what we find remarkable is that he was the PM of Maps, not an engineer, though of course he still identifies as one. We find this theme recurring throughout Bret's career and worldview. We think it is plain as day that AI leadership will have to be hands-on and technical, especially when the ground is shifting as quickly as it is today:“There's a lot of power in combining product and engineering into as few people as possible… few great things have been created by committee.”“If engineering is an order taking organization for product you can sometimes make meaningful things, but rarely will you create extremely well crafted breakthrough products. Those tend to be small teams who deeply understand the customer need that they're solving, who have a maniacal focus on outcomes.”“And I think the reason why is if you look at like software as a service five years ago, maybe you can have a separation of product and engineering because most software as a service created five years ago. I wouldn't say there's like a lot of technological breakthroughs required for most business applications. And if you're making expense reporting software or whatever, it's useful… You kind of know how databases work, how to build auto scaling with your AWS cluster, whatever, you know, it's just, you're just applying best practices to yet another problem. "When you have areas like the early days of mobile development or the early days of interactive web applications, which I think Google Maps and Gmail represent, or now AI agents, you're in this constant conversation with what the requirements of your customers and stakeholders are and all the different people interacting with it and the capabilities of the technology. And it's almost impossible to specify the requirements of a product when you're not sure of the limitations of the technology itself.”This is the first time the difference between technical leadership for “normal” software and for “AI” software was articulated this clearly for us, and we'll be thinking a lot about this going forward. We left a lot of nuggets in the conversation, so we hope you'll just dive in with us (and thank Bret for joining the pod!)Timestamps* 00:00:02 Introductions and Bret Taylor's background* 00:01:23 Bret's experience at Stanford and the dot-com era* 00:04:04 The story of rewriting Google Maps backend* 00:11:06 Early days of interactive web applications at Google* 00:15:26 Discussion on product management and engineering roles* 00:21:00 AI and the future of software development* 00:26:42 Bret's approach to identifying customer needs and building AI companies* 00:32:09 The evolution of business models in the AI era* 00:41:00 The future of programming languages and software development* 00:49:38 Challenges in precisely communicating human intent to machines* 00:56:44 Discussion on Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) and its impact* 01:08:51 The future of agent-to-agent communication* 01:14:03 Bret's involvement in the OpenAI leadership crisis* 01:22:11 OpenAI's relationship with Microsoft* 01:23:23 OpenAI's mission and priorities* 01:27:40 Bret's guiding principles for career choices* 01:29:12 Brief discussion on pasta-making* 01:30:47 How Bret keeps up with AI developments* 01:32:15 Exciting research directions in AI* 01:35:19 Closing remarks and hiring at Sierra Transcript[00:02:05] Introduction and Guest Welcome[00:02:05] Alessio: Hey everyone, welcome to the Latent Space Podcast. This is Alessio, partner and CTO at Decibel Partners, and I'm joined by my co host swyx, founder of smol.ai.[00:02:17] swyx: Hey, and today we're super excited to have Bret Taylor join us. Welcome. Thanks for having me. It's a little unreal to have you in the studio.[00:02:25] swyx: I've read about you so much over the years, like even before. Open AI effectively. I mean, I use Google Maps to get here. So like, thank you for everything that you've done. Like, like your story history, like, you know, I think people can find out what your greatest hits have been.[00:02:40] Bret Taylor's Early Career and Education[00:02:40] swyx: How do you usually like to introduce yourself when, you know, you talk about, you summarize your career, like, how do you look at yourself?[00:02:47] Bret: Yeah, it's a great question. You know, we, before we went on the mics here, we're talking about the audience for this podcast being more engineering. And I do think depending on the audience, I'll introduce myself differently because I've had a lot of [00:03:00] corporate and board roles. I probably self identify as an engineer more than anything else though.[00:03:04] Bret: So even when I was. Salesforce, I was coding on the weekends. So I think of myself as an engineer and then all the roles that I do in my career sort of start with that just because I do feel like engineering is sort of a mindset and how I approach most of my life. So I'm an engineer first and that's how I describe myself.[00:03:24] Bret: You majored in computer[00:03:25] swyx: science, like 1998. And, and I was high[00:03:28] Bret: school, actually my, my college degree was Oh, two undergrad. Oh, three masters. Right. That old.[00:03:33] swyx: Yeah. I mean, no, I was going, I was going like 1998 to 2003, but like engineering wasn't as, wasn't a thing back then. Like we didn't have the title of senior engineer, you know, kind of like, it was just.[00:03:44] swyx: You were a programmer, you were a developer, maybe. What was it like in Stanford? Like, what was that feeling like? You know, was it, were you feeling like on the cusp of a great computer revolution? Or was it just like a niche, you know, interest at the time?[00:03:57] Stanford and the Dot-Com Bubble[00:03:57] Bret: Well, I was at Stanford, as you said, from 1998 to [00:04:00] 2002.[00:04:02] Bret: 1998 was near the peak of the dot com bubble. So. This is back in the day where most people that they're coding in the computer lab, just because there was these sun microsystems, Unix boxes there that most of us had to do our assignments on. And every single day there was a. com like buying pizza for everybody.[00:04:20] Bret: I didn't have to like, I got. Free food, like my first two years of university and then the dot com bubble burst in the middle of my college career. And so by the end there was like tumbleweed going to the job fair, you know, it was like, cause it was hard to describe unless you were there at the time, the like level of hype and being a computer science major at Stanford was like, A thousand opportunities.[00:04:45] Bret: And then, and then when I left, it was like Microsoft, IBM.[00:04:49] Joining Google and Early Projects[00:04:49] Bret: And then the two startups that I applied to were VMware and Google. And I ended up going to Google in large part because a woman named Marissa Meyer, who had been a teaching [00:05:00] assistant when I was, what was called a section leader, which was like a junior teaching assistant kind of for one of the big interest.[00:05:05] Bret: Yes. Classes. She had gone there. And she was recruiting me and I knew her and it was sort of felt safe, you know, like, I don't know. I thought about it much, but it turned out to be a real blessing. I realized like, you know, you always want to think you'd pick Google if given the option, but no one knew at the time.[00:05:20] Bret: And I wonder if I'd graduated in like 1999 where I've been like, mom, I just got a job at pets. com. It's good. But you know, at the end I just didn't have any options. So I was like, do I want to go like make kernel software at VMware? Do I want to go build search at Google? And I chose Google. 50, 50 ball.[00:05:36] Bret: I'm not really a 50, 50 ball. So I feel very fortunate in retrospect that the economy collapsed because in some ways it forced me into like one of the greatest companies of all time, but I kind of lucked into it, I think.[00:05:47] The Google Maps Rewrite Story[00:05:47] Alessio: So the famous story about Google is that you rewrote the Google maps back in, in one week after the map quest quest maps acquisition, what was the story there?[00:05:57] Alessio: Is it. Actually true. Is it [00:06:00] being glorified? Like how, how did that come to be? And is there any detail that maybe Paul hasn't shared before?[00:06:06] Bret: It's largely true, but I'll give the color commentary. So it was actually the front end, not the back end, but it turns out for Google maps, the front end was sort of the hard part just because Google maps was.[00:06:17] Bret: Largely the first ish kind of really interactive web application, say first ish. I think Gmail certainly was though Gmail, probably a lot of people then who weren't engineers probably didn't appreciate its level of interactivity. It was just fast, but. Google maps, because you could drag the map and it was sort of graphical.[00:06:38] Bret: My, it really in the mainstream, I think, was it a map[00:06:41] swyx: quest back then that was, you had the arrows up and down, it[00:06:44] Bret: was up and down arrows. Each map was a single image and you just click left and then wait for a few seconds to the new map to let it was really small too, because generating a big image was kind of expensive on computers that day.[00:06:57] Bret: So Google maps was truly innovative in that [00:07:00] regard. The story on it. There was a small company called where two technologies started by two Danish brothers, Lars and Jens Rasmussen, who are two of my closest friends now. They had made a windows app called expedition, which had beautiful maps. Even in 2000.[00:07:18] Bret: For whenever we acquired or sort of acquired their company, Windows software was not particularly fashionable, but they were really passionate about mapping and we had made a local search product that was kind of middling in terms of popularity, sort of like a yellow page of search product. So we wanted to really go into mapping.[00:07:36] Bret: We'd started working on it. Their small team seemed passionate about it. So we're like, come join us. We can build this together.[00:07:42] Technical Challenges and Innovations[00:07:42] Bret: It turned out to be a great blessing that they had built a windows app because you're less technically constrained when you're doing native code than you are building a web browser, particularly back then when there weren't really interactive web apps and it ended up.[00:07:56] Bret: Changing the level of quality that we [00:08:00] wanted to hit with the app because we were shooting for something that felt like a native windows application. So it was a really good fortune that we sort of, you know, their unusual technical choices turned out to be the greatest blessing. So we spent a lot of time basically saying, how can you make a interactive draggable map in a web browser?[00:08:18] Bret: How do you progressively load, you know, new map tiles, you know, as you're dragging even things like down in the weeds of the browser at the time, most browsers like Internet Explorer, which was dominant at the time would only load two images at a time from the same domain. So we ended up making our map tile servers have like.[00:08:37] Bret: Forty different subdomains so we could load maps and parallels like lots of hacks. I'm happy to go into as much as like[00:08:44] swyx: HTTP connections and stuff.[00:08:46] Bret: They just like, there was just maximum parallelism of two. And so if you had a map, set of map tiles, like eight of them, so So we just, we were down in the weeds of the browser anyway.[00:08:56] Bret: So it was lots of plumbing. I can, I know a lot more about browsers than [00:09:00] most people, but then by the end of it, it was fairly, it was a lot of duct tape on that code. If you've ever done an engineering project where you're not really sure the path from point A to point B, it's almost like. Building a house by building one room at a time.[00:09:14] Bret: The, there's not a lot of architectural cohesion at the end. And then we acquired a company called Keyhole, which became Google earth, which was like that three, it was a native windows app as well, separate app, great app, but with that, we got licenses to all this satellite imagery. And so in August of 2005, we added.[00:09:33] Bret: Satellite imagery to Google Maps, which added even more complexity in the code base. And then we decided we wanted to support Safari. There was no mobile phones yet. So Safari was this like nascent browser on, on the Mac. And it turns out there's like a lot of decisions behind the scenes, sort of inspired by this windows app, like heavy use of XML and XSLT and all these like.[00:09:54] Bret: Technologies that were like briefly fashionable in the early two thousands and everyone hates now for good [00:10:00] reason. And it turns out that all of the XML functionality and Internet Explorer wasn't supporting Safari. So people are like re implementing like XML parsers. And it was just like this like pile of s**t.[00:10:11] Bret: And I had to say a s**t on your part. Yeah, of[00:10:12] Alessio: course.[00:10:13] Bret: So. It went from this like beautifully elegant application that everyone was proud of to something that probably had hundreds of K of JavaScript, which sounds like nothing. Now we're talking like people have modems, you know, not all modems, but it was a big deal.[00:10:29] Bret: So it was like slow. It took a while to load and just, it wasn't like a great code base. Like everything was fragile. So I just got. Super frustrated by it. And then one weekend I did rewrite all of it. And at the time the word JSON hadn't been coined yet too, just to give you a sense. So it's all XML.[00:10:47] swyx: Yeah.[00:10:47] Bret: So we used what is now you would call JSON, but I just said like, let's use eval so that we can parse the data fast. And, and again, that's, it would literally as JSON, but at the time there was no name for it. So we [00:11:00] just said, let's. Pass on JavaScript from the server and eval it. And then somebody just refactored the whole thing.[00:11:05] Bret: And, and it wasn't like I was some genius. It was just like, you know, if you knew everything you wished you had known at the beginning and I knew all the functionality, cause I was the primary, one of the primary authors of the JavaScript. And I just like, I just drank a lot of coffee and just stayed up all weekend.[00:11:22] Bret: And then I, I guess I developed a bit of reputation and no one knew about this for a long time. And then Paul who created Gmail and I ended up starting a company with him too, after all of this told this on a podcast and now it's large, but it's largely true. I did rewrite it and it, my proudest thing.[00:11:38] Bret: And I think JavaScript people appreciate this. Like the un G zipped bundle size for all of Google maps. When I rewrote, it was 20 K G zipped. It was like much smaller for the entire application. It went down by like 10 X. So. What happened on Google? Google is a pretty mainstream company. And so like our usage is shot up because it turns out like it's faster.[00:11:57] Bret: Just being faster is worth a lot of [00:12:00] percentage points of growth at a scale of Google. So how[00:12:03] swyx: much modern tooling did you have? Like test suites no compilers.[00:12:07] Bret: Actually, that's not true. We did it one thing. So I actually think Google, I, you can. Download it. There's a, Google has a closure compiler, a closure compiler.[00:12:15] Bret: I don't know if anyone still uses it. It's gone. Yeah. Yeah. It's sort of gone out of favor. Yeah. Well, even until recently it was better than most JavaScript minifiers because it was more like it did a lot more renaming of variables and things. Most people use ES build now just cause it's fast and closure compilers built on Java and super slow and stuff like that.[00:12:37] Bret: But, so we did have that, that was it. Okay.[00:12:39] The Evolution of Web Applications[00:12:39] Bret: So and that was treated internally, you know, it was a really interesting time at Google at the time because there's a lot of teams working on fairly advanced JavaScript when no one was. So Google suggest, which Kevin Gibbs was the tech lead for, was the first kind of type ahead, autocomplete, I believe in a web browser, and now it's just pervasive in search boxes that you sort of [00:13:00] see a type ahead there.[00:13:01] Bret: I mean, chat, dbt[00:13:01] swyx: just added it. It's kind of like a round trip.[00:13:03] Bret: Totally. No, it's now pervasive as a UI affordance, but that was like Kevin's 20 percent project. And then Gmail, Paul you know, he tells the story better than anyone, but he's like, you know, basically was scratching his own itch, but what was really neat about it is email, because it's such a productivity tool, just needed to be faster.[00:13:21] Bret: So, you know, he was scratching his own itch of just making more stuff work on the client side. And then we, because of Lars and Yen sort of like setting the bar of this windows app or like we need our maps to be draggable. So we ended up. Not only innovate in terms of having a big sync, what would be called a single page application today, but also all the graphical stuff you know, we were crashing Firefox, like it was going out of style because, you know, when you make a document object model with the idea that it's a document and then you layer on some JavaScript and then we're essentially abusing all of this, it just was running into code paths that were not.[00:13:56] Bret: Well, it's rotten, you know, at this time. And so it was [00:14:00] super fun. And, and, you know, in the building you had, so you had compilers, people helping minify JavaScript just practically, but there is a great engineering team. So they were like, that's why Closure Compiler is so good. It was like a. Person who actually knew about programming languages doing it, not just, you know, writing regular expressions.[00:14:17] Bret: And then the team that is now the Chrome team believe, and I, I don't know this for a fact, but I'm pretty sure Google is the main contributor to Firefox for a long time in terms of code. And a lot of browser people were there. So every time we would crash Firefox, we'd like walk up two floors and say like, what the hell is going on here?[00:14:35] Bret: And they would load their browser, like in a debugger. And we could like figure out exactly what was breaking. And you can't change the code, right? Cause it's the browser. It's like slow, right? I mean, slow to update. So, but we could figure out exactly where the bug was and then work around it in our JavaScript.[00:14:52] Bret: So it was just like new territory. Like so super, super fun time, just like a lot of, a lot of great engineers figuring out [00:15:00] new things. And And now, you know, the word, this term is no longer in fashion, but the word Ajax, which was asynchronous JavaScript and XML cause I'm telling you XML, but see the word XML there, to be fair, the way you made HTTP requests from a client to server was this.[00:15:18] Bret: Object called XML HTTP request because Microsoft and making Outlook web access back in the day made this and it turns out to have nothing to do with XML. It's just a way of making HTTP requests because XML was like the fashionable thing. It was like that was the way you, you know, you did it. But the JSON came out of that, you know, and then a lot of the best practices around building JavaScript applications is pre React.[00:15:44] Bret: I think React was probably the big conceptual step forward that we needed. Even my first social network after Google, we used a lot of like HTML injection and. Making real time updates was still very hand coded and it's really neat when you [00:16:00] see conceptual breakthroughs like react because it's, I just love those things where it's like obvious once you see it, but it's so not obvious until you do.[00:16:07] Bret: And actually, well, I'm sure we'll get into AI, but I, I sort of feel like we'll go through that evolution with AI agents as well that I feel like we're missing a lot of the core abstractions that I think in 10 years we'll be like, gosh, how'd you make agents? Before that, you know, but it was kind of that early days of web applications.[00:16:22] swyx: There's a lot of contenders for the reactive jobs of of AI, but no clear winner yet. I would say one thing I was there for, I mean, there's so much we can go into there. You just covered so much.[00:16:32] Product Management and Engineering Synergy[00:16:32] swyx: One thing I just, I just observe is that I think the early Google days had this interesting mix of PM and engineer, which I think you are, you didn't, you didn't wait for PM to tell you these are my, this is my PRD.[00:16:42] swyx: This is my requirements.[00:16:44] mix: Oh,[00:16:44] Bret: okay.[00:16:45] swyx: I wasn't technically a software engineer. I mean,[00:16:48] Bret: by title, obviously. Right, right, right.[00:16:51] swyx: It's like a blend. And I feel like these days, product is its own discipline and its own lore and own industry and engineering is its own thing. And there's this process [00:17:00] that happens and they're kind of separated, but you don't produce as good of a product as if they were the same person.[00:17:06] swyx: And I'm curious, you know, if, if that, if that sort of resonates in, in, in terms of like comparing early Google versus modern startups that you see out there,[00:17:16] Bret: I certainly like wear a lot of hats. So, you know, sort of biased in this, but I really agree that there's a lot of power and combining product design engineering into as few people as possible because, you know few great things have been created by committee, you know, and so.[00:17:33] Bret: If engineering is an order taking organization for product you can sometimes make meaningful things, but rarely will you create extremely well crafted breakthrough products. Those tend to be small teams who deeply understand the customer need that they're solving, who have a. Maniacal focus on outcomes.[00:17:53] Bret: And I think the reason why it's, I think for some areas, if you look at like software as a service five years ago, maybe you can have a [00:18:00] separation of product and engineering because most software as a service created five years ago. I wouldn't say there's like a lot of like. Technological breakthroughs required for most, you know, business applications.[00:18:11] Bret: And if you're making expense reporting software or whatever, it's useful. I don't mean to be dismissive of expense reporting software, but you probably just want to understand like, what are the requirements of the finance department? What are the requirements of an individual file expense report? Okay.[00:18:25] Bret: Go implement that. And you kind of know how web applications are implemented. You kind of know how to. How databases work, how to build auto scaling with your AWS cluster, whatever, you know, it's just, you're just applying best practices to yet another problem when you have areas like the early days of mobile development or the early days of interactive web applications, which I think Google Maps and Gmail represent, or now AI agents, you're in this constant conversation with what the requirements of your customers and stakeholders are and all the different people interacting with it.[00:18:58] Bret: And the capabilities of the [00:19:00] technology. And it's almost impossible to specify the requirements of a product when you're not sure of the limitations of the technology itself. And that's why I use the word conversation. It's not literal. That's sort of funny to use that word in the age of conversational AI.[00:19:15] Bret: You're constantly sort of saying, like, ideally, you could sprinkle some magic AI pixie dust and solve all the world's problems, but it's not the way it works. And it turns out that actually, I'll just give an interesting example.[00:19:26] AI Agents and Modern Tooling[00:19:26] Bret: I think most people listening probably use co pilots to code like Cursor or Devon or Microsoft Copilot or whatever.[00:19:34] Bret: Most of those tools are, they're remarkable. I'm, I couldn't, you know, imagine development without them now, but they're not autonomous yet. Like I wouldn't let it just write most code without my interactively inspecting it. We just are somewhere between it's an amazing co pilot and it's an autonomous software engineer.[00:19:53] Bret: As a product manager, like your aspirations for what the product is are like kind of meaningful. But [00:20:00] if you're a product person, yeah, of course you'd say it should be autonomous. You should click a button and program should come out the other side. The requirements meaningless. Like what matters is like, what is based on the like very nuanced limitations of the technology.[00:20:14] Bret: What is it capable of? And then how do you maximize the leverage? It gives a software engineering team, given those very nuanced trade offs. Coupled with the fact that those nuanced trade offs are changing more rapidly than any technology in my memory, meaning every few months you'll have new models with new capabilities.[00:20:34] Bret: So how do you construct a product that can absorb those new capabilities as rapidly as possible as well? That requires such a combination of technical depth and understanding the customer that you really need more integration. Of product design and engineering. And so I think it's why with these big technology waves, I think startups have a bit of a leg up relative to incumbents because they [00:21:00] tend to be sort of more self actualized in terms of just like bringing those disciplines closer together.[00:21:06] Bret: And in particular, I think entrepreneurs, the proverbial full stack engineers, you know, have a leg up as well because. I think most breakthroughs happen when you have someone who can understand those extremely nuanced technical trade offs, have a vision for a product. And then in the process of building it, have that, as I said, like metaphorical conversation with the technology, right?[00:21:30] Bret: Gosh, I ran into a technical limit that I didn't expect. It's not just like changing that feature. You might need to refactor the whole product based on that. And I think that's, that it's particularly important right now. So I don't, you know, if you, if you're building a big ERP system, probably there's a great reason to have product and engineering.[00:21:51] Bret: I think in general, the disciplines are there for a reason. I think when you're dealing with something as nuanced as the like technologies, like large language models today, there's a ton of [00:22:00] advantage of having. Individuals or organizations that integrate the disciplines more formally.[00:22:05] Alessio: That makes a lot of sense.[00:22:06] Alessio: I've run a lot of engineering teams in the past, and I think the product versus engineering tension has always been more about effort than like whether or not the feature is buildable. But I think, yeah, today you see a lot more of like. Models actually cannot do that. And I think the most interesting thing is on the startup side, people don't yet know where a lot of the AI value is going to accrue.[00:22:26] Alessio: So you have this rush of people building frameworks, building infrastructure, layered things, but we don't really know the shape of the compute. I'm curious that Sierra, like how you thought about building an house, a lot of the tooling for evals or like just, you know, building the agents and all of that.[00:22:41] Alessio: Versus how you see some of the startup opportunities that is maybe still out there.[00:22:46] Bret: We build most of our tooling in house at Sierra, not all. It's, we don't, it's not like not invented here syndrome necessarily, though, maybe slightly guilty of that in some ways, but because we're trying to build a platform [00:23:00] that's in Dorian, you know, we really want to have control over our own destiny.[00:23:03] Bret: And you had made a comment earlier that like. We're still trying to figure out who like the reactive agents are and the jury is still out. I would argue it hasn't been created yet. I don't think the jury is still out to go use that metaphor. We're sort of in the jQuery era of agents, not the react era.[00:23:19] Bret: And, and that's like a throwback for people listening,[00:23:22] swyx: we shouldn't rush it. You know?[00:23:23] Bret: No, yeah, that's my point is. And so. Because we're trying to create an enduring company at Sierra that outlives us, you know, I'm not sure we want to like attach our cart to some like to a horse where it's not clear that like we've figured out and I actually want as a company, we're trying to enable just at a high level and I'll, I'll quickly go back to tech at Sierra, we help consumer brands build customer facing AI agents.[00:23:48] Bret: So. Everyone from Sonos to ADT home security to Sirius XM, you know, if you call them on the phone and AI will pick up with you, you know, chat with them on the Sirius XM homepage. It's an AI agent called Harmony [00:24:00] that they've built on our platform. We're what are the contours of what it means for someone to build an end to end complete customer experience with AI with conversational AI.[00:24:09] Bret: You know, we really want to dive into the deep end of, of all the trade offs to do it. You know, where do you use fine tuning? Where do you string models together? You know, where do you use reasoning? Where do you use generation? How do you use reasoning? How do you express the guardrails of an agentic process?[00:24:25] Bret: How do you impose determinism on a fundamentally non deterministic technology? There's just a lot of really like as an important design space. And I could sit here and tell you, we have the best approach. Every entrepreneur will, you know. But I hope that in two years, we look back at our platform and laugh at how naive we were, because that's the pace of change broadly.[00:24:45] Bret: If you talk about like the startup opportunities, I'm not wholly skeptical of tools companies, but I'm fairly skeptical. There's always an exception for every role, but I believe that certainly there's a big market for [00:25:00] frontier models, but largely for companies with huge CapEx budgets. So. Open AI and Microsoft's Anthropic and Amazon Web Services, Google Cloud XAI, which is very well capitalized now, but I think the, the idea that a company can make money sort of pre training a foundation model is probably not true.[00:25:20] Bret: It's hard to, you're competing with just, you know, unreasonably large CapEx budgets. And I just like the cloud infrastructure market, I think will be largely there. I also really believe in the applications of AI. And I define that not as like building agents or things like that. I define it much more as like, you're actually solving a problem for a business.[00:25:40] Bret: So it's what Harvey is doing in legal profession or what cursor is doing for software engineering or what we're doing for customer experience and customer service. The reason I believe in that is I do think that in the age of AI, what's really interesting about software is it can actually complete a task.[00:25:56] Bret: It can actually do a job, which is very different than the value proposition of [00:26:00] software was to ancient history two years ago. And as a consequence, I think the way you build a solution and For a domain is very different than you would have before, which means that it's not obvious, like the incumbent incumbents have like a leg up, you know, necessarily, they certainly have some advantages, but there's just such a different form factor, you know, for providing a solution and it's just really valuable.[00:26:23] Bret: You know, it's. Like just think of how much money cursor is saving software engineering teams or the alternative, how much revenue it can produce tool making is really challenging. If you look at the cloud market, just as a analog, there are a lot of like interesting tools, companies, you know, Confluent, Monetized Kafka, Snowflake, Hortonworks, you know, there's a, there's a bunch of them.[00:26:48] Bret: A lot of them, you know, have that mix of sort of like like confluence or have the open source or open core or whatever you call it. I, I, I'm not an expert in this area. You know, I do think [00:27:00] that developers are fickle. I think that in the tool space, I probably like. Default towards open source being like the area that will win.[00:27:09] Bret: It's hard to build a company around this and then you end up with companies sort of built around open source to that can work. Don't get me wrong, but I just think that it's nowadays the tools are changing so rapidly that I'm like, not totally skeptical of tool makers, but I just think that open source will broadly win, but I think that the CapEx required for building frontier models is such that it will go to a handful of big companies.[00:27:33] Bret: And then I really believe in agents for specific domains which I think will, it's sort of the analog to software as a service in this new era. You know, it's like, if you just think of the cloud. You can lease a server. It's just a low level primitive, or you can buy an app like you know, Shopify or whatever.[00:27:51] Bret: And most people building a storefront would prefer Shopify over hand rolling their e commerce storefront. I think the same thing will be true of AI. So [00:28:00] I've. I tend to like, if I have a, like an entrepreneur asked me for advice, I'm like, you know, move up the stack as far as you can towards a customer need.[00:28:09] Bret: Broadly, but I, but it doesn't reduce my excitement about what is the reactive building agents kind of thing, just because it is, it is the right question to ask, but I think we'll probably play out probably an open source space more than anything else.[00:28:21] swyx: Yeah, and it's not a priority for you. There's a lot in there.[00:28:24] swyx: I'm kind of curious about your idea maze towards, there are many customer needs. You happen to identify customer experience as yours, but it could equally have been coding assistance or whatever. I think for some, I'm just kind of curious at the top down, how do you look at the world in terms of the potential problem space?[00:28:44] swyx: Because there are many people out there who are very smart and pick the wrong problem.[00:28:47] Bret: Yeah, that's a great question.[00:28:48] Future of Software Development[00:28:48] Bret: By the way, I would love to talk about the future of software, too, because despite the fact it didn't pick coding, I have a lot of that, but I can talk to I can answer your question, though, you know I think when a technology is as [00:29:00] cool as large language models.[00:29:02] Bret: You just see a lot of people starting from the technology and searching for a problem to solve. And I think it's why you see a lot of tools companies, because as a software engineer, you start building an app or a demo and you, you encounter some pain points. You're like,[00:29:17] swyx: a lot of[00:29:17] Bret: people are experiencing the same pain point.[00:29:19] Bret: What if I make it? That it's just very incremental. And you know, I always like to use the metaphor, like you can sell coffee beans, roasted coffee beans. You can add some value. You took coffee beans and you roasted them and roasted coffee beans largely, you know, are priced relative to the cost of the beans.[00:29:39] Bret: Or you can sell a latte and a latte. Is rarely priced directly like as a percentage of coffee bean prices. In fact, if you buy a latte at the airport, it's a captive audience. So it's a really expensive latte. And there's just a lot that goes into like. How much does a latte cost? And I bring it up because there's a supply chain from growing [00:30:00] coffee beans to roasting coffee beans to like, you know, you could make one at home or you could be in the airport and buy one and the margins of the company selling lattes in the airport is a lot higher than the, you know, people roasting the coffee beans and it's because you've actually solved a much more acute human problem in the airport.[00:30:19] Bret: And, and it's just worth a lot more to that person in that moment. It's kind of the way I think about technology too. It sounds funny to liken it to coffee beans, but you're selling tools on top of a large language model yet in some ways your market is big, but you're probably going to like be price compressed just because you're sort of a piece of infrastructure and then you have open source and all these other things competing with you naturally.[00:30:43] Bret: If you go and solve a really big business problem for somebody, that's actually like a meaningful business problem that AI facilitates, they will value it according to the value of that business problem. And so I actually feel like people should just stop. You're like, no, that's, that's [00:31:00] unfair. If you're searching for an idea of people, I, I love people trying things, even if, I mean, most of the, a lot of the greatest ideas have been things no one believed in.[00:31:07] Bret: So I like, if you're passionate about something, go do it. Like who am I to say, yeah, a hundred percent. Or Gmail, like Paul as far, I mean I, some of it's Laura at this point, but like Gmail is Paul's own email for a long time. , and then I amusingly and Paul can't correct me, I'm pretty sure he sent her in a link and like the first comment was like, this is really neat.[00:31:26] Bret: It would be great. It was not your email, but my own . I don't know if it's a true story. I'm pretty sure it's, yeah, I've read that before. So scratch your own niche. Fine. Like it depends on what your goal is. If you wanna do like a venture backed company, if its a. Passion project, f*****g passion, do it like don't listen to anybody.[00:31:41] Bret: In fact, but if you're trying to start, you know an enduring company, solve an important business problem. And I, and I do think that in the world of agents, the software industries has shifted where you're not just helping people more. People be more productive, but you're actually accomplishing tasks autonomously.[00:31:58] Bret: And as a consequence, I think the [00:32:00] addressable market has just greatly expanded just because software can actually do things now and actually accomplish tasks and how much is coding autocomplete worth. A fair amount. How much is the eventual, I'm certain we'll have it, the software agent that actually writes the code and delivers it to you, that's worth a lot.[00:32:20] Bret: And so, you know, I would just maybe look up from the large language models and start thinking about the economy and, you know, think from first principles. I don't wanna get too far afield, but just think about which parts of the economy. We'll benefit most from this intelligence and which parts can absorb it most easily.[00:32:38] Bret: And what would an agent in this space look like? Who's the customer of it is the technology feasible. And I would just start with these business problems more. And I think, you know, the best companies tend to have great engineers who happen to have great insight into a market. And it's that last part that I think some people.[00:32:56] Bret: Whether or not they have, it's like people start so much in the technology, they [00:33:00] lose the forest for the trees a little bit.[00:33:02] Alessio: How do you think about the model of still selling some sort of software versus selling more package labor? I feel like when people are selling the package labor, it's almost more stateless, you know, like it's easier to swap out if you're just putting an input and getting an output.[00:33:16] Alessio: If you think about coding, if there's no ID, you're just putting a prompt and getting back an app. It doesn't really matter. Who generates the app, you know, you have less of a buy in versus the platform you're building, I'm sure on the backend customers have to like put on their documentation and they have, you know, different workflows that they can tie in what's kind of like the line to draw there versus like going full where you're managed customer support team as a service outsource versus.[00:33:40] Alessio: This is the Sierra platform that you can build on. What was that decision? I'll sort of[00:33:44] Bret: like decouple the question in some ways, which is when you have something that's an agent, who is the person using it and what do they want to do with it? So let's just take your coding agent for a second. I will talk about Sierra as well.[00:33:59] Bret: Who's the [00:34:00] customer of a, an agent that actually produces software? Is it a software engineering manager? Is it a software engineer? And it's there, you know, intern so to speak. I don't know. I mean, we'll figure this out over the next few years. Like what is that? And is it generating code that you then review?[00:34:16] Bret: Is it generating code with a set of unit tests that pass, what is the actual. For lack of a better word contract, like, how do you know that it did what you wanted it to do? And then I would say like the product and the pricing, the packaging model sort of emerged from that. And I don't think the world's figured out.[00:34:33] Bret: I think it'll be different for every agent. You know, in our customer base, we do what's called outcome based pricing. So essentially every time the AI agent. Solves the problem or saves a customer or whatever it might be. There's a pre negotiated rate for that. We do that. Cause it's, we think that that's sort of the correct way agents, you know, should be packaged.[00:34:53] Bret: I look back at the history of like cloud software and notably the introduction of the browser, which led to [00:35:00] software being delivered in a browser, like Salesforce to. Famously invented sort of software as a service, which is both a technical delivery model through the browser, but also a business model, which is you subscribe to it rather than pay for a perpetual license.[00:35:13] Bret: Those two things are somewhat orthogonal, but not really. If you think about the idea of software running in a browser, that's hosted. Data center that you don't own, you sort of needed to change the business model because you don't, you can't really buy a perpetual license or something otherwise like, how do you afford making changes to it?[00:35:31] Bret: So it only worked when you were buying like a new version every year or whatever. So to some degree, but then the business model shift actually changed business as we know it, because now like. Things like Adobe Photoshop. Now you subscribe to rather than purchase. So it ended up where you had a technical shift and a business model shift that were very logically intertwined that actually the business model shift was turned out to be as significant as the technical as the shift.[00:35:59] Bret: And I think with [00:36:00] agents, because they actually accomplish a job, I do think that it doesn't make sense to me that you'd pay for the privilege of like. Using the software like that coding agent, like if it writes really bad code, like fire it, you know, I don't know what the right metaphor is like you should pay for a job.[00:36:17] Bret: Well done in my opinion. I mean, that's how you pay your software engineers, right? And[00:36:20] swyx: and well, not really. We paid to put them on salary and give them options and they vest over time. That's fair.[00:36:26] Bret: But my point is that you don't pay them for how many characters they write, which is sort of the token based, you know, whatever, like, There's a, that famous Apple story where we're like asking for a report of how many lines of code you wrote.[00:36:40] Bret: And one of the engineers showed up with like a negative number cause he had just like done a big refactoring. There was like a big F you to management who didn't understand how software is written. You know, my sense is like the traditional usage based or seat based thing. It's just going to look really antiquated.[00:36:55] Bret: Cause it's like asking your software engineer, how many lines of code did you write today? Like who cares? Like, cause [00:37:00] absolutely no correlation. So my old view is I don't think it's be different in every category, but I do think that that is the, if an agent is doing a job, you should, I think it properly incentivizes the maker of that agent and the customer of, of your pain for the job well done.[00:37:16] Bret: It's not always perfect to measure. It's hard to measure engineering productivity, but you can, you should do something other than how many keys you typed, you know Talk about perverse incentives for AI, right? Like I can write really long functions to do the same thing, right? So broadly speaking, you know, I do think that we're going to see a change in business models of software towards outcomes.[00:37:36] Bret: And I think you'll see a change in delivery models too. And, and, you know, in our customer base you know, we empower our customers to really have their hands on the steering wheel of what the agent does they, they want and need that. But the role is different. You know, at a lot of our customers, the customer experience operations folks have renamed themselves the AI architects, which I think is really cool.[00:37:55] Bret: And, you know, it's like in the early days of the Internet, there's the role of the webmaster. [00:38:00] And I don't know whether your webmaster is not a fashionable, you know, Term, nor is it a job anymore? I just, I don't know. Will they, our tech stand the test of time? Maybe, maybe not. But I do think that again, I like, you know, because everyone listening right now is a software engineer.[00:38:14] Bret: Like what is the form factor of a coding agent? And actually I'll, I'll take a breath. Cause actually I have a bunch of pins on them. Like I wrote a blog post right before Christmas, just on the future of software development. And one of the things that's interesting is like, if you look at the way I use cursor today, as an example, it's inside of.[00:38:31] Bret: A repackaged visual studio code environment. I sometimes use the sort of agentic parts of it, but it's largely, you know, I've sort of gotten a good routine of making it auto complete code in the way I want through tuning it properly when it actually can write. I do wonder what like the future of development environments will look like.[00:38:55] Bret: And to your point on what is a software product, I think it's going to change a lot in [00:39:00] ways that will surprise us. But I always use, I use the metaphor in my blog post of, have you all driven around in a way, Mo around here? Yeah, everyone has. And there are these Jaguars, the really nice cars, but it's funny because it still has a steering wheel, even though there's no one sitting there and the steering wheels like turning and stuff clearly in the future.[00:39:16] Bret: If once we get to that, be more ubiquitous, like why have the steering wheel and also why have all the seats facing forward? Maybe just for car sickness. I don't know, but you could totally rearrange the car. I mean, so much of the car is oriented around the driver, so. It stands to reason to me that like, well, autonomous agents for software engineering run through visual studio code.[00:39:37] Bret: That seems a little bit silly because having a single source code file open one at a time is kind of a goofy form factor for when like the code isn't being written primarily by you, but it begs the question of what's your relationship with that agent. And I think the same is true in our industry of customer experience, which is like.[00:39:55] Bret: Who are the people managing this agent? What are the tools do they need? And they definitely need [00:40:00] tools, but it's probably pretty different than the tools we had before. It's certainly different than training a contact center team. And as software engineers, I think that I would like to see particularly like on the passion project side or research side.[00:40:14] Bret: More innovation in programming languages. I think that we're bringing the cost of writing code down to zero. So the fact that we're still writing Python with AI cracks me up just cause it's like literally was designed to be ergonomic to write, not safe to run or fast to run. I would love to see more innovation and how we verify program correctness.[00:40:37] Bret: I studied for formal verification in college a little bit and. It's not very fashionable because it's really like tedious and slow and doesn't work very well. If a lot of code is being written by a machine, you know, one of the primary values we can provide is verifying that it actually does what we intend that it does.[00:40:56] Bret: I think there should be lots of interesting things in the software development life cycle, like how [00:41:00] we think of testing and everything else, because. If you think about if we have to manually read every line of code that's coming out as machines, it will just rate limit how much the machines can do. The alternative is totally unsafe.[00:41:13] Bret: So I wouldn't want to put code in production that didn't go through proper code review and inspection. So my whole view is like, I actually think there's like an AI native I don't think the coding agents don't work well enough to do this yet, but once they do, what is sort of an AI native software development life cycle and how do you actually.[00:41:31] Bret: Enable the creators of software to produce the highest quality, most robust, fastest software and know that it's correct. And I think that's an incredible opportunity. I mean, how much C code can we rewrite and rust and make it safe so that there's fewer security vulnerabilities. Can we like have more efficient, safer code than ever before?[00:41:53] Bret: And can you have someone who's like that guy in the matrix, you know, like staring at the little green things, like where could you have an operator [00:42:00] of a code generating machine be like superhuman? I think that's a cool vision. And I think too many people are focused on like. Autocomplete, you know, right now, I'm not, I'm not even, I'm guilty as charged.[00:42:10] Bret: I guess in some ways, but I just like, I'd like to see some bolder ideas. And that's why when you were joking, you know, talking about what's the react of whatever, I think we're clearly in a local maximum, you know, metaphor, like sort of conceptual local maximum, obviously it's moving really fast. I think we're moving out of it.[00:42:26] Alessio: Yeah. At the end of 23, I've read this blog post from syntax to semantics. Like if you think about Python. It's taking C and making it more semantic and LLMs are like the ultimate semantic program, right? You can just talk to them and they can generate any type of syntax from your language. But again, the languages that they have to use were made for us, not for them.[00:42:46] Alessio: But the problem is like, as long as you will ever need a human to intervene, you cannot change the language under it. You know what I mean? So I'm curious at what point of automation we'll need to get, we're going to be okay making changes. To the underlying languages, [00:43:00] like the programming languages versus just saying, Hey, you just got to write Python because I understand Python and I'm more important at the end of the day than the model.[00:43:08] Alessio: But I think that will change, but I don't know if it's like two years or five years. I think it's more nuanced actually.[00:43:13] Bret: So I think there's a, some of the more interesting programming languages bring semantics into syntax. So let me, that's a little reductive, but like Rust as an example, Rust is memory safe.[00:43:25] Bret: Statically, and that was a really interesting conceptual, but it's why it's hard to write rust. It's why most people write python instead of rust. I think rust programs are safer and faster than python, probably slower to compile. But like broadly speaking, like given the option, if you didn't have to care about the labor that went into it.[00:43:45] Bret: You should prefer a program written in Rust over a program written in Python, just because it will run more efficiently. It's almost certainly safer, et cetera, et cetera, depending on how you define safe, but most people don't write Rust because it's kind of a pain in the ass. And [00:44:00] the audience of people who can is smaller, but it's sort of better in most, most ways.[00:44:05] Bret: And again, let's say you're making a web service and you didn't have to care about how hard it was to write. If you just got the output of the web service, the rest one would be cheaper to operate. It's certainly cheaper and probably more correct just because there's so much in the static analysis implied by the rest programming language that it probably will have fewer runtime errors and things like that as well.[00:44:25] Bret: So I just give that as an example, because so rust, at least my understanding that came out of the Mozilla team, because. There's lots of security vulnerabilities in the browser and it needs to be really fast. They said, okay, we want to put more of a burden at the authorship time to have fewer issues at runtime.[00:44:43] Bret: And we need the constraint that it has to be done statically because browsers need to be really fast. My sense is if you just think about like the, the needs of a programming language today, where the role of a software engineer is [00:45:00] to use an AI to generate functionality and audit that it does in fact work as intended, maybe functionally, maybe from like a correctness standpoint, some combination thereof, how would you create a programming system that facilitated that?[00:45:15] Bret: And, you know, I bring up Rust is because I think it's a good example of like, I think given a choice of writing in C or Rust, you should choose Rust today. I think most people would say that, even C aficionados, just because. C is largely less safe for very similar, you know, trade offs, you know, for the, the system and now with AI, it's like, okay, well, that just changes the game on writing these things.[00:45:36] Bret: And so like, I just wonder if a combination of programming languages that are more structurally oriented towards the values that we need from an AI generated program, verifiable correctness and all of that. If it's tedious to produce for a person, that maybe doesn't matter. But one thing, like if I asked you, is this rest program memory safe?[00:45:58] Bret: You wouldn't have to read it, you just have [00:46:00] to compile it. So that's interesting. I mean, that's like an, that's one example of a very modest form of formal verification. So I bring that up because I do think you have AI inspect AI, you can have AI reviewed. Do AI code reviews. It would disappoint me if the best we could get was AI reviewing Python and having scaled a few very large.[00:46:21] Bret: Websites that were written on Python. It's just like, you know, expensive and it's like every, trust me, every team who's written a big web service in Python has experimented with like Pi Pi and all these things just to make it slightly more efficient than it naturally is. You don't really have true multi threading anyway.[00:46:36] Bret: It's just like clearly that you do it just because it's convenient to write. And I just feel like we're, I don't want to say it's insane. I just mean. I do think we're at a local maximum. And I would hope that we create a programming system, a combination of programming languages, formal verification, testing, automated code reviews, where you can use AI to generate software in a high scale way and trust it.[00:46:59] Bret: And you're [00:47:00] not limited by your ability to read it necessarily. I don't know exactly what form that would take, but I feel like that would be a pretty cool world to live in.[00:47:08] Alessio: Yeah. We had Chris Lanner on the podcast. He's doing great work with modular. I mean, I love. LVM. Yeah. Basically merging rust in and Python.[00:47:15] Alessio: That's kind of the idea. Should be, but I'm curious is like, for them a big use case was like making it compatible with Python, same APIs so that Python developers could use it. Yeah. And so I, I wonder at what point, well, yeah.[00:47:26] Bret: At least my understanding is they're targeting the data science Yeah. Machine learning crowd, which is all written in Python, so still feels like a local maximum.[00:47:34] Bret: Yeah.[00:47:34] swyx: Yeah, exactly. I'll force you to make a prediction. You know, Python's roughly 30 years old. In 30 years from now, is Rust going to be bigger than Python?[00:47:42] Bret: I don't know this, but just, I don't even know this is a prediction. I just am sort of like saying stuff I hope is true. I would like to see an AI native programming language and programming system, and I use language because I'm not sure language is even the right thing, but I hope in 30 years, there's an AI native way we make [00:48:00] software that is wholly uncorrelated with the current set of programming languages.[00:48:04] Bret: or not uncorrelated, but I think most programming languages today were designed to be efficiently authored by people and some have different trade offs.[00:48:15] Evolution of Programming Languages[00:48:15] Bret: You know, you have Haskell and others that were designed for abstractions for parallelism and things like that. You have programming languages like Python, which are designed to be very easily written, sort of like Perl and Python lineage, which is why data scientists use it.[00:48:31] Bret: It's it can, it has a. Interactive mode, things like that. And I love, I'm a huge Python fan. So despite all my Python trash talk, a huge Python fan wrote at least two of my three companies were exclusively written in Python and then C came out of the birth of Unix and it wasn't the first, but certainly the most prominent first step after assembly language, right?[00:48:54] Bret: Where you had higher level abstractions rather than and going beyond go to, to like abstractions, [00:49:00] like the for loop and the while loop.[00:49:01] The Future of Software Engineering[00:49:01] Bret: So I just think that if the act of writing code is no longer a meaningful human exercise, maybe it will be, I don't know. I'm just saying it sort of feels like maybe it's one of those parts of history that just will sort of like go away, but there's still the role of this offer engineer, like the person actually building the system.[00:49:20] Bret: Right. And. What does a programming system for that form factor look like?[00:49:25] React and Front-End Development[00:49:25] Bret: And I, I just have a, I hope to be just like I mentioned, I remember I was at Facebook in the very early days when, when, what is now react was being created. And I remember when the, it was like released open source I had left by that time and I was just like, this is so f*****g cool.[00:49:42] Bret: Like, you know, to basically model your app independent of the data flowing through it, just made everything easier. And then now. You know, I can create, like there's a lot of the front end software gym play is like a little chaotic for me, to be honest with you. It is like, it's sort of like [00:50:00] abstraction soup right now for me, but like some of those core ideas felt really ergonomic.[00:50:04] Bret: I just wanna, I'm just looking forward to the day when someone comes up with a programming system that feels both really like an aha moment, but completely foreign to me at the same time. Because they created it with sort of like from first principles recognizing that like. Authoring code in an editor is maybe not like the primary like reason why a programming system exists anymore.[00:50:26] Bret: And I think that's like, that would be a very exciting day for me.[00:50:28] The Role of AI in Programming[00:50:28] swyx: Yeah, I would say like the various versions of this discussion have happened at the end of the day, you still need to precisely communicate what you want. As a manager of people, as someone who has done many, many legal contracts, you know how hard that is.[00:50:42] swyx: And then now we have to talk to machines doing that and AIs interpreting what we mean and reading our minds effectively. I don't know how to get across that barrier of translating human intent to instructions. And yes, it can be more declarative, but I don't know if it'll ever Crossover from being [00:51:00] a programming language to something more than that.[00:51:02] Bret: I agree with you. And I actually do think if you look at like a legal contract, you know, the imprecision of the English language, it's like a flaw in the system. How many[00:51:12] swyx: holes there are.[00:51:13] Bret: And I do think that when you're making a mission critical software system, I don't think it should be English language prompts.[00:51:19] Bret: I think that is silly because you want the precision of a a programming language. My point was less about that and more about if the actual act of authoring it, like if you.[00:51:32] Formal Verification in Software[00:51:32] Bret: I'll think of some embedded systems do use formal verification. I know it's very common in like security protocols now so that you can, because the importance of correctness is so great.[00:51:41] Bret: My intellectual exercise is like, why not do that for all software? I mean, probably that's silly just literally to do what we literally do for. These low level security protocols, but the only reason we don't is because it's hard and tedious and hard and tedious are no longer factors. So, like, if I could, I mean, [00:52:00] just think of, like, the silliest app on your phone right now, the idea that that app should be, like, formally verified for its correctness feels laughable right now because, like, God, why would you spend the time on it?[00:52:10] Bret: But if it's zero costs, like, yeah, I guess so. I mean, it never crashed. That's probably good. You know, why not? I just want to, like, set our bars really high. Like. We should make, software has been amazing. Like there's a Mark Andreessen blog post, software is eating the world. And you know, our whole life is, is mediated digitally.[00:52:26] Bret: And that's just increasing with AI. And now we'll have our personal agents talking to the agents on the CRO platform and it's agents all the way down, you know, our core infrastructure is running on these digital systems. We now have like, and we've had a shortage of software developers for my entire life.[00:52:45] Bret: And as a consequence, you know if you look, remember like health care, got healthcare. gov that fiasco security vulnerabilities leading to state actors getting access to critical infrastructure. I'm like. We now have like created this like amazing system that can [00:53:00] like, we can fix this, you know, and I, I just want to, I'm both excited about the productivity gains in the economy, but I just think as software engineers, we should be bolder.[00:53:08] Bret: Like we should have aspirations to fix these systems so that like in general, as you said, as precise as we want to be in the specification of the system. We can make it work correctly now, and I'm being a little bit hand wavy, and I think we need some systems. I think that's where we should set the bar, especially when so much of our life depends on this critical digital infrastructure.[00:53:28] Bret: So I'm I'm just like super optimistic about it. But actually, let's go to w

Los 30.000 residentes del campo de refugiados de Yenín en Cisjordania han huido. La retirada de la ayuda de Estados Unidos podría causar mil muertes maternas adicionales en Afganistán hasta 2028. La ONU pide la reapertura "urgente" del aeropuerto de la ciudad de Goma. Es el Día Mundial contra el Cáncer. 

El ejército israelí ha volado numerosos edificios del campo de Yenín, en Cisjordania, convirtiéndolo en una “ciudad fantasma”, dijo UNRWA en un comunicado.En Colombia, la violencia en el Catatumbo ha provocado el mayor desplazamiento masivo de población en los últimos 28 años. Los Estados miembros de la OMS están debatiendo el presupuesto de la Organización tras el anuncio de la retirada de Estados Unidos, su mayor donante.

Solicitar asilo es un derecho universal, recuerda la Oficina de Derechos Humanos a Estados Unidos. La mayoría de las víctimas de los ataques israelíes en Yenín estaban desarmadas. Más de 400.000 desplazados por la violencia en la RD Congo. Al menos 242 millones de niños vieron interrumpida su escolarización en 2024 debido al cambio climático

The Bank of Japan meets overnight to decide on a probable rate hike. The Bank of Japan's August meeting led to major sell-offs due to the Yen carry trade. However, Kevin says a positive reaction to this meeting can lead to another quick milestone for investors, "if we stick the landing." ======== Schwab Network ======== Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6D Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribe Download the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185 Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7 Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watch Watch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-explore Watch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/ Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

El Consejo de Seguridad analiza la violencia en el Catatumbo. El campo de Yenín, en Cisjordania ha quedado prácticamente inhabitable tras la operación de las fuerzas de seguridad israelíes y los enfrentamientos entre grupos palestinos.En Gaza, un equipo de la ONU ha conseguido visitar Jabalia, en el norte de la Franja a donde comienza a llegar gente para encontrarse la zona arrasada. 

Charles Schwab's Jeffrey Kleintop says the Bank of Japan's rate hike is all but locked in. he says it's important for U.S. investors to keep an eye on the markets Friday and brace for volatility following August's Yen carry trade. Nathan Peterson notes U.S. overvaluation in stocks but adds, "we've been here before." ======== Schwab Network ======== Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribe Download the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185 Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7 Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watch Watch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-explore Watch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/ Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Last time we spoke about the Long March. Amidst escalating conflicts, the Red Army, led by the newly empowered Mao Zedong, faced immense pressures from the Nationalist Army. Struggling through defeats and dwindling forces, they devised a bold retreat known as the Long March. Starting in October 1934, they evaded encirclement and crossed treacherous terrain, enduring heavy losses. Despite dire circumstances, their resilience allowed them to regroup, learn from past missteps, and ultimately strengthen their strategy, securing Mao's leadership and setting the stage for future successes against the KMT. During the Long March (1934-1936), the Red Army skillfully maneuvered through treacherous terrain, evading the pursuing National Revolutionary Army. Despite harsh conditions and dwindling numbers, advances and strategic ploys allowed them to cross critical rivers and unite with reinforcements. Under Mao Zedong's leadership, they faced internal struggles but ultimately preserved their unity. By journey's end, they had transformed into a formidable force, setting the stage for future victories against their adversaries and solidifying their influence in China.   #131 The Complicated Story about Xinjiang Welcome to the Fall and Rise of China Podcast, I am your dutiful host Craig Watson. But, before we start I want to also remind you this podcast is only made possible through the efforts of Kings and Generals over at Youtube. Perhaps you want to learn more about the history of Asia? Kings and Generals have an assortment of episodes on history of asia and much more  so go give them a look over on Youtube. So please subscribe to Kings and Generals over at Youtube and to continue helping us produce this content please check out www.patreon.com/kingsandgenerals. If you are still hungry for some more history related content, over on my channel, the Pacific War Channel where I cover the history of China and Japan from the 19th century until the end of the Pacific War. I've said probably too many times, but theres one last major series of events I'd like to cover before we jump into the beginning of the 15 year war between China and Japan. When I say Xinjiang I imagine there are two responses from you in the audience, 1) what the hell is Xinjiang or number 2) oh what about that place in northwest China. That pretty much sums it up, the history of this province, or region if you want to call it that is almost never spoken about. It was a place as we have seen multiple times in the series, where conflicts come and go like the weather. But in the 1930's things really heated up. What I want to talk about is collectively part of the Xinjiang Wars, but more specifically I want to talk about the Kumul Rebellion. There's really no way to jump right into this one so I am going to have to explain a bit about the history of Xinjiang.  Xinjiang in a political sense is part of China and has been the cornerstone of China's strength and prestige going back to the Han dynasty over 2000 years ago. In a cultural sense however, Xinjiang is more inline with the Muslim dominated middle-east. It's closer to th Turkic and Iranian speaking peoples of Central Asia. From a geographical point of view Xinjiang is very much on the periphery. It is very isolated from western asia by the massed ranks of the Hindu Kush, the Pamirs, the Tien Shan, the Indian Subcontinent of Karakoram, Kunlun, the Himalaya ranges and of course by the Gobi desert. It neither belongs to the east or west. As a province of China its the largest and most sparsely populated. It can be divided into two main regions, the Tarim Basin and Zungharia and then into two lesser but economically significant regions, the Ili Valley and Turgan Depression. The Tien Shan mountain range extends roughly eastward from the Pamir Massif, creating a formidable barrier between Zungharia and the Tarim Basin. This natural obstacle complicates direct communication between the two regions, particularly during winter. The Ili Valley, separated from Zungharia by a northern extension of the Tien Shan, is physically isolated from the rest of the province and can only be easily accessed from the west. This western area came under Russian control in the mid-nineteenth century and now forms part of the Kazakh Soviet Socialist Republic. Now it has to be acknowledged, since the formation of the PRC in 1949, Xinjiang changed in size and ethnic composition. The CCP drove a massive Han migrant wave over. Regardless, Han's make up a minority and according to some population statistics taken during the 1940s, Xinjiang was dominated by 7 Muslim nationalities, roughly 3.5 million people out of a total population of 3.7 million. 200,000 of these were Han settlers, while 75,000-100,000 were Mongols, Russians, Tunguzic peoples (those being Sibo, Solon and Manchu), a few Tibetans, Afghans and Indians. Among the various indigenous Muslim nationalities of Xinjiang, the Uighurs stand out as the most numerous and politically important. This Turkic-speaking group primarily consists of sedentary agriculturalists who reside in the oases of the Tarim Basin, Turfan, Kumul, and the fertile lowlands of the Hi Valley. In the late 1940s, the Uyghur population in Xinjiang was estimated to be approximately 2,941,000. Following the Uyghurs, the second-largest Muslim nationality in the region is the Kazakhs, with an estimated population of around 319,000 during the late Republican Period. Kirghiz come in third, with an estimated population of about 65,000 at the same time. Both the Kazakhs and Kirghiz in Xinjiang are nomadic Turkic-speaking peoples, with the Kazakhs primarily found in the highland areas of Zungharia and the Hi Valley, while the Kirghiz inhabit the upland pastures of the Tien Shan and Pamirs. There also exist a small group of Iranian-speaking 'Mountain' Tajiks living in the upland Sarikol region in the far southwest, with an estimated population of 9,000 in the mid-1940s; a primarily urban group of Uzbeks residing in larger oasis towns and cities of the Tarim Basin, numbering approximately 8,000 in the mid-1940s; and a smaller group of Tatars settled mainly in Urumqi and the townships near the Xinjiang-Soviet border, estimated at 5,000 during the same period. Lastly, it is important to mention the Hui, a group of Chinese-speaking Muslims dispersed throughout China, particularly in Zungharia and Kumul within Xinjiang, as well as in the neighboring northwestern provinces of Gansu, Qinghai, and Ningxia. Known as 'Tungan' in Xinjiang, the Hui population was estimated at around 92,000 in the mid-1940s and held significant political and military influence during the Republican Period. Excluding the Ismaili Tajik's of Sarikol, the Muslim population of Xinjiang, whether Turkic or Chinese speaking, are Sunni following the orthodox of Hanafi Madhhab.  As for the non Muslim population, excluding the Mongols who numbered roughly 63,000 and inhabit a narrow strip of land along the northeastern frontier between Xinjiang and the Mongolian People's Republic, Tien Shan, Ili Vally and Chuguchak, most were newcomers, migrants from the mid 18th century while the region was being conquered. Again according to the same statistics from the 1940s I mentioned, Hans represented 3-4 % of the population. Although the Han population disproportionately held power with the main administrative areas, they had no sizable territorial enclaves. The Han population can basically be divided into 5 groups; descendants of exiled criminals and political offenders; Hunanese settlers who came over after Zuo Zungtang's conquests; Tientsin merchants who were supplying Zuo's army; Shanxi caravaneers who came to trade and Gansu colonists. Lastly there were the Tunguzic Peoples and Russians. The Tunguzic speaking Sibo, Solon and Manchu settled mostly in the Ili region. The Russians also tended to live in the Ili region. These were mostly White Russian refugees from the civil war.  Xinjiang's first Republican governor was Yang Zengxin, a Yunnanese native. He had previously worked as the district magistrate in Gansu and Ningxia earning a reputation as a good manager of the local Tungan Muslim population. In 1908 he was transferred to Xinjiang and quickly found himself promoted to by the last Qing governor of Xinjiang. He held out his post after the Xinhai revolution and quelled a Urumqi rebellion soon after. Yang Zengxin's survived politically by always siding with whichever faction he thought was winning. For example in 1917, President Li Yuanghong dispatched Fan Yaonan to watch over Yang and try to replace him if possible. Yang recognized quickly whichever Warlord faction held power over the Beiyang government should be courted. Thus Yang held out for a long time and his province was comparably peaceful compared to most of warlord era China. To maintain his power, Yang enacted a divide and rule style, trying to placate the conflicts between certain groups within Xinjiang, but made sure to exclude Russian influence. Basically Yang tried his best to keep groups who could come into conflict away from each other, keeping the Uyghurs of southern Xinjiang away from the pastoral nomads of Zungharia and Tien Shan. Above all Yang considered the Bolshevik Russians to be the greatest threat to his regime, in his words “The Russians ... aimed at ... isolating the country from all outside influence, and at maintaining it in a state of medieval stagnation, thus removing any possibility of conscious and organised national resistance. As their religious and educational policy, the Russian administrators sought to preserve the archaic form of Islam and Islamic culture. . . Quranic schools of the most conservative type were favoured and protected against any modernist influence”. During his 16 year of power, Yang established himself as a competent autocrat, a mandarin of the old school and quite the capable administrator. Yet his economic policies were long term exploitative causing hardship and exhausting the province. Yang realized he was reached the threshold of what the population was willing to endure and endeavored to allow corruption to emerge within his administration provided it remained within acceptable limits. IE: did not spring forward a Muslim revolution. He opened junior positions in the administration to Muslims which had a duel effect. It made the Muslim community feel like they were part of greater things, but placed said officials in the path of the populations anger, insulating senior Han officials. Ironically it would be his fellow Han Chinese officials who would become angry with him. Some were simply ambitious of his power, others felt that Xinjiang should be more closely inline with China proper.  Rumors have it that after a dinnr party, Yang deliberately surrounded himself with opium addicts, stating to his subordinates “the inveterate opium smoker thinks more of his own comfort and convenience than of stirring up unrest among his subordinates”. Needless to say, Yang later years saw him seriously alienating senior officials. By 1926 he claimed “to have created an earthly paradise in a remote region” so he seemed to be quite full of himself. That same year he turned against his Tungan subordinates. He accused many of conspiring with Ma Qi, a Tungan warlord of Xuning in Qinghai, whom he also thought were driven by Urumqi. Deprived of his formerly loyal Tungans, Yang found himself increasingly isolated. A expedition was sent to Urumqi in 1926, whr G. N Roerich noted “The Governor's residence consisted of several well-isolated buildings and enclosed courtyards. The gates were carefully guarded by patrols of heavily armed men ... The Governor's yamen seemed to us to be in a very dilapidated condition. The glass in many of the windows on the ground floor was broken and dirty papers and rags had been pasted on the window frames. Numerous retainers roamed about the courtyards and villainous bodyguards, armed with mauser pistols, were on duty at the entrance to the yamen.” It seems likely Yang had decided to leave Xinjiang at that point. He had amassed a immense personal fortune and sent much of it to his family in China proper and also to Manila where he had a bank account. Further evidence of this was provided by Mildred Cable and Francesca French, two members of the China inland Mission who reported 'Wise old Governor Yang ... as early as 1926 ... quietly arranged a way of escape for his family and for the transference of his wealth to the security of the British Concession in Tientsin. Later in the same year, accompanied by several 'luggage cases of valuables', Yang's eldest son was sent out of Sinkiang, travelling incognito, in the company of these missionaries”. It was also at this time Yang erectd a statue of himself in th public gardens at Urumqi. According to Nicholas Roerich, this memorial was paid for with forced contributions 'from the grateful population'; by all accounts the statue was in execrable taste . While the NRA was marching upon Beijing in June of 1928, Yang ordered the KMT flag to be raised in Xinjiang. This gesture indicated to all, Yang was about to depart the province. One of Yang's most dissident subordinates, a Han named Fan Yaonan decided to act. Fan Yaonan was an ambitious modernist who received his education in Japan and someone Yang distruste from day one. Fan was appointed the post of Taoyin of Aksu by the Beijing government, an appointment Yang could have easily ingored, but was grudgingly impressd by Fans abilities. Fan proved himself very useful to Yang and was soon promoted to the Taoyin of Urumqi alongside becoming the Xinjiang Provincial Commissioner for Foreign Affairs. It seems Fan and Yang mutually disliked each other. At some point in 1926 Fan got together with a small group of like minded officials, such as the engineer at Urumqi's telegraph station and the Dean of the local school of Law, and Fan told them he wanted to assasinate Yang. Some believe Fan sought to gain favor with the KMT as motivation. Regardless on July 7th of 1928, 6 days after Yang took the post of Chairman of the Xinjiang Provincial Government under the KMT, Fan attacked. On that day, Yang was invited to a banquet to celebrate a graduation ceremony at the Urumqi law school. Fan had arranged the banquet, with 18 soldiers present, disguised as waiters wearing “red bands around their arms and Browning pistols in their sleeves”. During the meal, Fan proposed a toast to the health of Yang at which time “shots rang outsimultaneously, all aimed at the Governor. Seven bulletsin all were fired, and all reached their mark. Yang, mortally wounded, but superb in death, glared an angry defiance at his foes, 'who dares do this?' he questioned in the loud voice which had commanded instant obedience for so many years. Then he fell slowly forward, his last glance resting upon the face of the trusted Yen, as though to ask forgiveness that he had not listened to the advice so often given to him”. According to Yan Tingshan who was also wounded, Fan Yaonan finished Yang Zengxin off with two shots personally. After the assassination, whereupon 16 people were killed or wounded, Fan went to Yang official residence and seized the seals of office. He then sent a letter summonig Jin Shujen, the Commissioner for Civil Affairs in Xinjiang and Yang's second in command. Jin called Fan's bluff and refusing to come, instead sending soldiers to arrest the assassin. It seems Fan greatly miscalculated his personal support as a short gun battle broke out and he was arrested by Jin and shortly thereafter executed with his complices on July 8th. And thus, Jin Shujen found himself succeeding Yang, a less able man to the job. Jin Shujen was a Han Chinese from Gansu. He graduated from the Gansu provincial academy and served for a time as the Principal of a Provincial normal school. He then entered the Imperial Civil Service, where he came to the attention of Yang, then working as the district Magistrate at Hozhou. Yang took him on as district magistrate and Jin rose through the ranks. By 1927 Jin became the Provincial Commissioner for Civil Affairs at Urumqi. After executing Fan, Jin sent a telegram to Nanjing seeking the KMT's official recognition of his new role. Nanjing had no real options, it was fait accompli, they confirmed Jin into office and under the new KMT terminology he was appointed Provincial Chairman and commander-in-chief. In other words an official warlord.  Following his seizure of power, Jin immediately took steps to secure his newfound power. His first step was to double the salaries of the secret police and army. He also expanded the military and acquired new weaponry for them. Politically, Jin maintained the same old Qing policies Yang did, pretty much unchanged. Jin did however replace many of the Yunnanese followers under Yang with Han CHinese from Gansu. Jins younger brother, Jin Shuxin was appointed Provincial Commissioner for military affairs at Urumqi and his other brother Jin Shuqi was given the senior military post at Kashgar. His personal bodyguard member Zu Chaoqi was promoted to Brigade Commander at Urumqi. Jin maintained and expanded upon Yang's system of internal surveillance and censorship, like any good dictator would. According to H. French Ridley of the China Inland Mission at Urumqi “people were executed for 'merely making indiscreet remarks in the street during ordinary conversation”. Jin also introduced a system of internal passports so that any journey performing with Xinjiang required an official passport validation by the Provincial Chairman's personal seal, tightening his security grip and of course increasing his official revenue. Travel outside Xinjiang became nearly impossible, especially for Han officials and merchants seeking trade with China proper.  Under Jin Xinjiang's economy deteriorated while his fortune accumulated. Yang had introduced an unbacked paper currency that obviously fell victim to inflation and Jin upted the anty. Within a process of several stages, he expanded the currency, causing further inflation. Under Yang the land taxes had been a serious source of the provincial revenue, but Yang was not foolish enough to squeeze the Turkic peasantry too hard, he certainly was intelligent enough to thwart peasant revolts. Jin however, not so smart, he tossed caution to the win and doubled the land taxes, way past what would be considered the legal amount. Jin also emulated Ma Fuxiang, by establishing government monopolies over various profitable enterprises, notably the gold mine at Keriya and Jade mine at Khotan. He also monopolized the wool and pelt industry, using his police and army to force the sale of lambskins at a mere 10% of their market value. Just as with Yang's regime, wealth flowed out of the province in a continuous stream, straight into banks within China proper. According to George Vasel, a German engineer and Nazi agent hired to construct airfields in Gansu during the early 1930s, he knew a German pilot named Rathje who was secretly employed by Jin to fly a million dollars worth of gold bullion from Urumqi to Beijing. Jin did his best to keep all foreign influence out of Xinjiang and this extended also to KMT officials from China proper. Jin also of course did his best to conceal his corrupt regime from Nanjing. For all intensive purposes Jin treated Xinjiang like a feudal, medieval society. He tried to limit external trade to only be through long distance caravans. All was fine and dandy until Feng Yuxiang occupied Gansu and thus disrupted the traditional trade routes. Alongside this the Soviets had just constructed a new railroad linking Frunze, the capital of Kirghiz with Semipalatinsk in western siberia. This railroad known as the Turksib was aimed primarily to develop western Turkstan, integrating it within the new soviet system. The railroad was constructed 400 miles away from the Xinjiang frontier, on purpose to limit any activities with capitalists. When the railway was completed in 1930 it virtually strangled Xinjiang. China's share of Xinjiang's market dropped by 13% and the value of trade with the Soviets which had dropped to zero since the Russian civil war was not rising past 32 million roubles by 1930. The Soviet trade gradually was seizing a monopoly over Xinjiang and this of course affected the merchants and workers who were unable to compete. The revenue of the merchants and workers declined as new taxes were levied against them. Meanwhile alongside an increase in Soviet trade, the new railway also increased Soviet political influence over Xinjiang. It was also much faster and easier to travel from China proper to Xinjiang via Vladivostok, the trans-siberian railway and Turksib than across the North-West roads of China. For the Turkic speaking Muslims of Xinjiang, it was quite impressive and many wanted to do business and mingle with the Soviets. However to do so required a visa, and thus KMT officials in Nanjing held the keys. Jin's policies towards the Turkic Muslims, Tungans and Mongols were extremely poor from the very beginning. It seems Jin held prejudice against Muslims, some citing bad experiences with them in Gansu. Whatever the case may be, Jin rapidly antagonized both his Turkic speaking and Tungan Muslim citizens by introducing a tax on the butchering of all animals in Xinjiang and forbidding Muslims to perform the Hajj to Mecca. Some point out he did that second part to thwart a loophole on leaving Xinjiang for trade. Obviously the Muslim majority of Xinjiang and the military powerhouse of Torgut Mongols in the Tien Shan bitterly resented Jin. Despite wide scale hostility against him, the first challenges at his autocratic rule came not from various minority groups, but some ambitious Han officers under his command. Palpatin would say it was ironic.  In May of 1929 the Taoyin of Altai attempted a coup against Jin, but he was forewarned and able to confine the fighting to the Shara Sume area. In the spring of 1931 troubles broke out in Urumqi as discontented Han officers and soldiers attacked Jin's yamen. The attack failed, and the instigators of the plot were all executed. The same year, Jin annexed the Kumul Khanate, known to the Chinese as Hami, finally pushing the Turkic speaking Muslims into open rebellion. Going back in time, after Zuo Zengtangs reconquest of Xinjiang in the 1870s, a few local principalities were permitted to survive on a semi-autonomous basis. Of these Kumul was the most important and was ruled by a royal family dating back to the Ming Dynasty and descended from the Chaghatay Khans. The Khanate of Kumul dominated the chief road from Xinjiang to China proper and was therefore of strategic importance to the Chinese. It extended from Iwanquan northwards to the Barkul Tagh and along the mountains to Bai and south to Xingxingxia along the Xinjiang-Gansu border. During the Xinhai Revolution of 1911, Maqsud Shah was sitting on the throne of Kumul. He was known to the Chinese as the Hami Wang, to his subjects as Khan Maqsud or Sultan Maqsud and to Europeans as the King of the Gobi. He was the last independent Khan of Central Asia as the rest were tossing their lot in with the progress of the times. During Yangs regime he was content with allowing Kumul to train its semi autonomous status, mostly because Maqsud Shah was very friendly towards the Chinese. He spoke Turkic with a marked Chinese accent and wore Chinese clothes. On the other hand he had a long whit beard and always wore a turban or Uyghur cap. He was a staunch Muslim ruling a petty oasis kingdom from an ancient and ramshackle palace in Kumul proper, one of three towns making up the capital of Kumul, known to the Chinese as Huicheng. He had a bodyguard consisting of 40 Chinese soldiers armed with mausers and had a Chinese garrison billeted in fortified Chinese town. The third city in his domain was known as New City or Xincheng, populated by a mix of Chinese and Turkic peoples. By 1928, shortly after the assassination of Yang, it was estimated Maqsud Shah ruled over roughly 25,000-30,000 Kumulliks. He was responsible for levying taxes, dispensing justice and so forth. His administration rested upon 21 Begs, 4 of whom were responsible for Kumul itself, 5 others over plains villages and the other 12 over mountain regions of Barkul and Karlik Tagh. Maqsud Shah also maintained a Uyghur militia who had a reputation as being better trained than its Chinese counterpart at Old City. Throughout Yangs regime, Kumul remained relatively peaceful and prosperous. Maqsud Shah paid a small annual tribute to Urumqi and in return the Xinjiang government paid him a formal subsidy of 1200 silver taels a year. Basically this was Yang paying for the Sultans compliance when it came to moving through his strategic Khanate. For the Uyghurs of Kumul, they were free from the typical persecution under Chinese officials. The only tax paid by citizens of Kumul was in livestock, generally sheep or goats, given annually to the Khan. The soil of the oasis was rich and well cultivated. Everything was pretty fine and dandy under Yang, but now was the time of Jin. In March of 1930, Maqsud Shah died of old age. His eldest son Nasir should have inherited the throne of Kumul, but Jin and his Han subordinates stationed in Kumul Old City had other plans. Shortly after Maqsud Shah's death, Nasir traveled to Urumqi, most likely to legitimize his rise upon the throne. Nasir was not very popular amongst his people, thus it seemed he needed Jin's aid to bolster him. However there also was the story that it was Jin who ordered Nasir to come to Urumqi to perform a formal submission. Now at the time of Maqsud Shah's death, Li Xizeng, a Han Chinese divisional commander stationed in Kumul suggested to Jin that the Khanate should be abolished and annexed officially. There was of course a great rationale for this, if Jin took control over Kumul it would offer increased revenue and new positions for his Han Chinese officials. Thus Jin ordered a resolution be drawn up by his ministers to abolish the Khanate, dividing Kumul into three separate administrative districts, Hami centered around the capital, I-ho and I-wu. When Nasir arrived in Urumqi he was given the new position of Senior Advisor to the provincial government, but forbidden to return to Kumul. Basically it was the age old government via hostage taking. Meanwhile another official named Yulbars was sent back to Kumul with a group of Chinese officials to set up the new administration.  While the people of Kumul had no love for Nasir and were taxed pretty heavily by his father, this did not mean that they wanted the Khanate to end. For the Turkic Muslims the Khanate held a religious significance. For Uyghurs there was a question of national pride associated with it. Of course there were economic issues. Within Xinjiang Han were allowed to settle, but in the Khanate there were restrictions. In the words of the Nanjing Wu Aichen on the situation “subject peoples obstinately prefer self-government to good government”. Well Jin's government was definitely not good, so what outcome does that give? The newly appointed Han administration upset the people of Kumul from the very minute of its installation. When it was announced the privilege of being except from direct taxation by Urumqi was to be abolished, ompf. To add insult to injury, one years arrears of taxes were to be collected from the Uyghurs. On top of that, Kumul was tossed wide open to Han settlers who were incentivized to settle by giving them a tax exemption for two years. Yeah that be some wild policies. To add even more misery, Kumul being situated on the chief road from northwestern Gansu to Xinjiang saw an enormous flow of refugees from famine and warfare going on in Gansu. A column of these refugees were seen by Berger Bohlin of the Sino-Swedish Expedition of 1931. His account is as follows “During my stay at Hua-hai-tze I witnessed a curious spectacle. The Chen-fan region had for a number of years been visited by failure of the crops and famine, and large numbers of people therefore emigrated to more prosperous tracts. Such an emigration-wave now passed Hua-hai-tze. It consisted of a caravan of 100 camels, transporting 150 persons with all their baggage to Sinkiang, where it was said that land was being thrown open”. It seemed to Bohlin that the refugees looked carefree and happy and that the ruler of Xinjiang, Jin Shujen, a Gansu man himself was enthusiastic to have them come settle his province. Jin had his official in charge of I-ho district Lung Xulin provide land for the would-be settlers coming from Gansu. Lung Xulin responded by forcing his Uyghur population to leave their cultivated land and simply handed it over to the refugees. The expropriated Uyghurs were compensated for their land by being given untilled lands on the fringe of the desert where most soil was barren. The Uyghurs were also assessed for their land tax based on their old holdings. To make this even worse hear this, untilled land was exempt from taxation for two years, so they didn't even get that, while the Gansu refugees were excused from tax payments for three years. So yeah the Kumul people quickly organized a petition and sent it to the yamen in Urumqi. There was zero acknowledgement from the yamen it was received and nothing was done to address the long list of grievances, especially from the Uyghurs. Instead the Gansu settlers kept flooding in and with them the price of food skyrocketed, largely because of the enormous amount of provincial troops sent in to watch over everybody. Now for the moment the Turkic speaking Muslims in the region remained relatively peaceful, and this perhaps lulled Jin into a false sense of security. But according to Sven Hedin of the Sino-Swedish Expedition “Discontent increased; the people clenched their teeth and bided their time; the atmosphere was tense and gloomy. Inflammable matter accumulated, and only a spark was needed to fire the powder magazine.”  I would like to take this time to remind you all that this podcast is only made possible through the efforts of Kings and Generals over at Youtube. Please go subscribe to Kings and Generals over at Youtube and to continue helping us produce this content please check out www.patreon.com/kingsandgenerals. If you are still hungry after that, give my personal channel a look over at The Pacific War Channel at Youtube, it would mean a lot to me. The history of Xinjiang is unbelievably bizarre, complicated and quite frankly really fun. Before researching this I had no idea about anything and am really enjoying this as I write it. The next episode is going to be on the Kumul Rebellion, so buckle up buckaroo. 

Our Global Head of Macro Strategy joins our Chief U.S. Economist to discuss the Fed's recent rate cut and why persistent inflation is likely to slow the pace of future cuts.----- Transcript -----Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy.Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist.Matthew: Today, we're going to talk about the Federal Open Market Committee meeting and the path for rates from here.It's Thursday, December 19th at 10a.m. in New York.The FOMC meeting concluded yesterday with the Federal Reserve cutting rates by a quarter of a percentage point, marking the third rate cut for the year. This move by the Fed was just as the consensus had anticipated. However, in its meeting yesterday, the Fed indicated that 2025 rate cuts would happen at a slower pace than investors were expecting. So Mike, what are committee members projecting in terms of upcoming rate cuts in 2025 and 2026?Michael: Yeah, Matt, the Fed dialed back its expectations for policy rate easing in both 2025 and 2026. They now only look for two rate cuts of 50 basis points worth of cuts in 2025, which would bring the funds rate to 3.9% and then only another 50 basis points in 2026, bringing the policy rate to 3.4%. So a major dialing back in their expectations of rate cuts over the next two years.Matthew: What are the factors that are driving what now appears to be a slightly less dovish view of the policy rate?Michael: Chair Powell mentioned, I think, two things that were really important. One, he said that many committee members saw recent firmness in inflation as a surprise. And so I think some FOMC members extrapolated that strength in inflation going forward and therefore thought fewer rate cuts were appropriate. But Chair Powell also said other FOMC members incorporated expectations about potential changes in policy, which we inferred to mean changes about tariffs, immigration policy, maybe additional fiscal spending. And so whether they bake that in as explicit assumptions or just saw it as risks to the outlook, I think that these were the two main factors. So either just momentum in inflation or views on policy rate changes, which could lead to greater inflation going forward.Matthew: So Mike, what were your expectations going into this meeting and how did yesterday's outcome change Morgan Stanley's outlook for Federal Reserve policy next year and the year thereafter?Michael: We are a little more comfortable with inflation than the Fed appears to be. So we previously thought the Fed would be cutting rates three times next year and doing all of that in the first half of the year. But we have to listen to what they're thinking and it appears that the bar for rate cuts is higher. In other words, they may need more evidence to reduce policy rates. One month of inflation isn't going to do it, for example. So what we did is we took one rate cut out of the forecast for 2025. We now only look for two rate cuts in 2025, one in March and one in June.As we look into 2026, we do think the effect of higher tariffs and restrictions on immigration policy will slow the economy more, so we continue to look for more rate cuts in 2026 than the Fed is projecting but obviously 2026 is a long way away. So in short, Matt, we dialed back our assumptions for policy rate easing to take into account what the Fed appears to be saying about a higher bar for comfort on inflation before they ease again.So Matt, if I can actually turn it back to you: how, if at all, did yesterday's meeting, and what Chair Powell said, change some of your key forecasts?Matthew: So we came into this meeting advocating for a neutral stance in the bond market. We had seen a market pricing that ended up being more in line with the outcome of the meetings. We didn't expect yields to fall dramatically in the wake of this meeting, and we didn't expect yields to rise dramatically in the wake of this meeting. But what we ended up seeing in the marketplace was higher yields as a result of a policy projection that I think surprised investors somewhat and now the market is pricing an outlook that is somewhat similar to how the Fed is forecasting or projecting their policy rate into the future.In terms of our treasury yield forecasts, we didn't see anything in that meeting that changes the outlook for treasury markets all that much. As you said, Mike, that in 2026, we're expecting much lower policy rates. And that ultimately is going to weigh on treasury yields as we make our way through the course of 2025. When we forecast market rates or prices, we have to think about where we are going to be in the future and how we're going to be thinking about the future from then. And so when we think about where our treasury yield's going to be at the end of 2025, we need to try to invoke the views of investors at the end of 2025, which of course are going to be looking out into 2026.So when we consider the rate policy path that you're projecting at the moment and the factors that are driving that rate policy projection - a slower growth, for example, a bit more moderate inflation - we do think that investors will be looking towards investing in the government bond market as we make our way through next year, because 2026 should be even more supportive of government bond markets than perhaps the economy and Fed policy might be in 2025.So that's how we think about the interest rate marketplace. We continue to project a 10 year treasury yield of just about three and a half percent at the end of 2025 that does seem a ways away from where we are today, with the 10 year treasury yield closer to four and a half percent, but a year is a long time. And that's plenty of time, we think, for yields to move lower gradually as policy does as well. On the foreign exchange side. The dollar we are projecting to soften next year, and this would be in line with our view for lower treasury yields. For the time being, the dollar reacted in a very positive way to the FOMC meeting this week but we think in 2025, you will see some softening in the dollar. And that primarily occurs against the Australian dollar, the Euro, as well as the Yen. We are projecting the dollar/yen exchange rate to end next year just below 140, which is going to be quite a move from current levels, but we do think that a year is plenty of time to see the dollar depreciate and that again links up very nicely with our forecast for lower treasury yields.Mike, with that said, one more question for you, if you would: where do things stand with inflation now? And how does this latest FOMC signal, how does it relate to inflation expectations for the year ahead?Michael: So right now, inflation has been a little bit stronger than we and I think the Fed had anticipated, and that's coming from two sources. One, hurricane-related effects on car prices. So the need to replace a lot of cars has pushed new and used car prices higher. We think that's a temporary story that's likely to reverse in the coming months. The more longer term concern has been around housing related inflation, or what we would call shelter inflation. The good news in that is in November, it took a marked step lower. So I do think it tells us that that component, which has been holding up inflation, will continue to move down. But as we look ahead to your point about inflation expectations, the real concern here is about potential shifts in policy, maybe the implementation of tariffs, the restriction of immigration.We as economists would normally say those should have level effects or one-off effects on inflation. And normally I'd have a high confidence in that statement. But we just came out of a very prolonged period of higher than normal inflation, so I think the concern is repetitive, one-off shocks to inflation, lead inflation expectations to move higher. Now, we don't think that will happen. Our outlook is for rate cuts, but this is the concern. So we think inflation moves lower. But we're certainly watching the behavior of inflation expectations to see if our forecast is misguided.Matthew: Well, great Mike. Thanks so much for taking the time to talk.Mike: Great speaking with you, Matt.Matthew: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Wild week for a market that's supposed to be boring and go unnoticed. For the second straight month, heavy buying in bills right ahead of the payroll report. Except, in this case, buyers went utterly crazy for the 8-week bill in one of the most incredible bill auctions. But what is all this mess about? Yen, securities lending, and recession. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisWEBINAR DEC 11 w/Jim RickardsSign up: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/26/x671pimlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU