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This week's episode of Wealth Formula features an interview with Claudia Sahm, and I want to share a quick takeaway before you listen — because she's often misunderstood in the headlines. First, a quick explanation of the Sahm Rule, in plain English. The rule looks at unemployment and asks a very simple question:Has the unemployment rate started rising meaningfully from its recent low? Specifically, if the three-month average unemployment rate rises by 0.5% or more above its lowest level over the past year, the Sahm Rule is triggered. Historically, that has happened early in every U.S. recession since World War II. That's why it gets cited so much. And to be clear — it's cited a lot. The Sahm Rule is tracked by the Federal Reserve, Treasury economists, Wall Street banks, macro funds, and economic research shops globally. When it triggers, it shows up everywhere. That's not by accident. Claudia built one of the cleanest early-warning indicators we have. But here's the part that often gets lost. The Sahm Rule is not a market-timing tool and it's not a prediction machine. Claudia emphasized this repeatedly. It was designed as a policy signal — a way to say, “Hey, if unemployment is rising this fast, waiting too long to respond makes things worse.” In other words, it's a call to action for policymakers, not a command for investors to panic. What makes this cycle unusual — and why talking to Claudia directly was so helpful — is what's actually driving the data. We're not seeing mass layoffs. Layoffs remain low by historical standards. What we're seeing instead is very weak hiring. Companies aren't firing people — they're just not expanding. That distinction matters. And this is where I think the big picture comes in — not just for understanding the economy, but for investing in general. When you step back, the big picture includes a government with massive debt loads that needs interest rates to come down over time. It includes fiscal pressures that make prolonged high rates politically and economically painful. And it includes the reality that if the current Fed leadership won't ease fast enough, future leadership will. History tells us that governments eventually get the monetary conditions they need — even if it takes time, even if it takes new appointments, and even if it takes a shift toward a more dovish Federal Reserve. That doesn't mean reckless money printing tomorrow. But it does mean that structurally high rates are unlikely to be permanent. And when you combine that with investing, the question becomes less about this month's headline and more about what's positioned to benefit when the environment normalizes. That's why I continue to focus on real assets that are already deeply discounted — things like multifamily real estate — assets that were repriced brutally during the rate shock, but still sit at the center of a growing, rent-dependent economy. This conversation with Claudia reinforced something I've been talking about for a long time:The biggest investing mistakes usually happen when people zoom in too far and forget to zoom back out. I've made this mistake myself. If you want a thoughtful, non-sensational, data-driven discussion about where we actually are in this cycle — and what the indicators really mean — I think you'll get a lot out of this episode. Transcript Disclaimer: This transcript was generated by AI and may not be 100% accurate. If you notice any errors or corrections, please email us at phil@wealthformula.com. Welcome everybody. This is Buck Joffrey with the Well Formula Podcast coming to you from Montecito, California. Before we begin today, I wanna remind you, uh, listen, we’re back in, uh, back in the saddle in here in, uh, 2026. I know it’s takes some time to get used to it, but we’re, gosh, we’re at the end of the month actually by the time this plays. I think we’re in February. It’s time again to start thinking about investing. And so if you are interested in potentially using this year, which I believe and which many believe to potentially be the last year, uh, big discounts, uh, in real estate and, uh, various other types of offerings. Make sure. To sign up for the Accredit Investor group, our investor club, as we call it wealthformula.com. You do need to be an accredit investor and then you get onboarded. An accredit investor is just defined by who you are. If you make over $300,000 per year filing jointly, or 200 by yourself, every reasonable expectation to do so in the future. Or you have a net worth of a million dollars outta your personal, outside of your personal residence, you’re an accredit investor. Congratulations. Join the club wealthformula.com. Interesting podcast. Today we have, uh, Claudia Sahm She’s a Big Deal, Claudia Sahm. You may recognize that last name som, for this som rule. And what is a som rule in plain English. You actually have heard of the som rule multiple times from other economists who’ve been on the show. The som rule looks at unemployment. And asks a very simple question. Now, has the unemployment rate started rising meaningfully from its recent low? So specifically, if the three month average unemployment rate rises 0.5% or more above its lowest level, over the past year, this som rule is triggered. Now, historically, that has happened early in every US recession since the World War ii. That’s why it gets cited so much. It gets cited a lot. By the way, the sum rule is tracked by the Fed treasury economists, wall Street Banks, macro funds, economic research shops globally, and when it triggers, it shows up everywhere, and that’s not by accident. Uh, Claudia has built one of the cleanest early warning indicators we have, but here’s the part that often gets lost. The som rule is not a market timing tool, and it’s not a prediction machine. Claudia, uh, emphasized that repeatedly. It was designed as a policy signal, a way to say, Hey, if unemployment’s rising this fast, wait, waiting too long to respond makes things worse. In other words, it’s call to action for policy makers, not a command for investors to panic per se. So what makes this cycle unusual and why talking to Claudia directly was so helpful? Well, it’s what’s actually driving the data. We’re not seeing mass layoffs. Layoffs remain low by historical standards. Um, what we’re seeing instead is very weak. Hiring companies aren’t firing people, they’re just not expanding, and that distinction matters. This is where the big picture comes in, not just for understanding the economy. For investing in general and when you step back, the big picture includes a government with massive debt loads that need interest rates to come down over time. It includes fiscal pressures that make prolonged high rates politically and economically painful. I’ve mentioned this before and it includes the reality that have to fed, fed, uh, if the current Fed leadership won’t ease fast enough. I am likely the case that future leadership appointed by. Donald Trump himself, uh, will, so history tells us that governments eventually get the monetary conditions they need, even if it takes time, even if it takes new appointments. And even if it takes a shift towards a more dovish federal reserve. Uh, that doesn’t mean, uh, reckless money printing tomorrow, but it does mean that structurally. High interest rates are unlikely to be permanent. Okay? And when you combine that with investing, the question becomes less about this month’s headline and more about what’s positioned to benefit when the environment normalizes. Okay? That’s really, really important, and that’s why I continue to focus on things like real estate, right? Real estate is currently. Not for long, in my opinion, but deeply discounted things like multifamily real estate, um, that were repriced brutally during the rate shot, uh, but are still at the center of a growing and, and rent dependent economy. And again, uh, this conversation with Claudia reinforced something that I’ve been talking about a long time, which is the biggest investing mistakes usually happen when people zoom in too far and forget to zoom back out. I’ve made that mistake myself. I am not immune. I have made lots of mistakes, and that’s one of them. So this is a great conversation. Hopefully you’ll enjoy it, especially if you want a thoughtful, nons sensational data-driven discussion. Where we are actually at in this cycle and what these indicators really mean. I think you’ll get a lot of this episode and we will have this conversation for you right after these messages. Wealth formula banking is an ingenious concept powered by whole life insurance, but instead of acting just as a safety net. The strategy supercharges your investments. First, you create a personal financial reservoir that grows at a compounding interest rate much higher than any bank savings account. As your money accumulates, you borrow from your own bank to invest in other cash flowing investments. Here’s the key. Even though you borrowed money at a simple interest rate, your insurance company keeps. Paying you compound interest on that money even though you’ve borrowed it at result, you make money in two places at the same time. That’s why your investments get supercharged. This isn’t a new technique. It’s a refined strategy used by some of the wealthiest families in history, and it uses century old rock solid insurance companies as its backbone. Turbocharge your investments. Visit Wealthformulabanking.com. Again, that’s wealth formula banking.com. Welcome back to the show, everyone. Today my guest on Wealth Formula podcast is Dr. Claudia Sahm. Uh, she’s an American, uh, macroeconomic expert, uh, known for her work, uh, on monetary and fiscal policy and real-time economic indicators. She developed this som rule, which I think, uh, people have mentioned on this show before, so this is a great opportunity to talk to her about that. Uh, it’s a widely, uh, followed recession signal based on unemployment. She’s also a former Federal Reserve economist and senior policy advisor in government. Um, so welcome, uh, Dr. Sahm. Great. Happy to be here. Thank you. Well, let’s, let’s kind of start out with this som rule because, uh, you know, it’s funny, we, we have had a few different people, uh, at various times bring up the SOM rule, and I think one had actually said that it was triggered, but I don’t don’t think it was at any rate, let’s, let’s start with that. What is the som rule? Lemme start with why is there a som rule, and then we’ll then we’ll get to specifically what the, what the rule is itself. So when I started out on the project, it wasn’t so much about. Calling a recession, like there are some really fancy technical ways that economists like look at the tea leaves and the data and either try to forecast a recession, which is incredibly hard, or even just say we’re in a recession in real time. So like that’s a useful endeavor. But what actually was behind the development of my recession indicator was more of a call to action. How do we develop policies that, that the Congress can put into place very quickly if a recession comes? So these kind of what are referred to as automatic stabilizers, so they’re decided upon ahead of time, but then you do need a trigger that says a recession is here. So now that enhance the unemployment benefits, send out the stimulus checks, whatever it is that we kind of have as our typical tools that are used in recessions, we could have those ready to go as kind of guardrails. Then like you, you turn the policy on. So that was really my emphasis was on how do we do better policy and recessions, get the support out quickly. ’cause that’s the best chance of kind of stabilizing the situation. And then it’s like, well it was in a, it was in a policy volume that they asked for, like a really concrete proposal. So if I’m gonna say an automatic stabilizer, I need to have a proposal for what a trigger could be. So that’s really where the som rule came. So I think it is important. It’s definitely important to me to, I always remember like what the kind of reason for it’s sure. Now that also guided what the indicator itself looks like. So again, it was gonna be in, in fiscal policy. It needs to be simple, it needs to be something that we track it and it needs to, I felt it was important that it capture the reason that we. Fight recessions, why there’s such a bad, uh, you know, outcome. And so it looks at the, the unemployment rate. I use the national unemployment rate, take a three month average. ’cause we wanna smooth out, like there’s bumps and wiggles in the data from month to month. So you kind of, you know, three month average. One way to smooth it out. So you take that series of three month averages, you look at the current value, you compare to the lowest value over the prior 12 months, if you’ve seen an increase of a half, a percentage point or more. Which is really pretty modest, but half a percentage point or more. Historically, we have been in the early months of a recession, so it’s not a forecast. It’s supposed to be like we’re in it. Let’s go. It’s an empirical pattern. It’s one that’s worked in the United States. It reflects kind of our labor market institutions, the way unemployment rate moves and recessions. It historically is the case that once you get past a certain threshold of increased unemployment rate, it tends to build on itself. And in a typical recession, we see increases of. Two, three or more percentage points in the unemployment rate. Uh, so that’s, that’s what the summer rule is. And in fact, it did trigger in the summer of 2024. At that time I had said like, look around, we are not in a recession. GP is still expanding. Job creation is still happening. We don’t see the other hallmarks of a recession. And pointed to the fact that we’d had a very disrupted labor market after the pandemic in particular. You know, there had been a lot of immigration at that point. The unemployment rate is the total number of unemployed. So people who don’t have a job but are actively looking for one out of the labor force, right? And so these people that have to either be employed or looking for jobs, and so we actually saw from the pandemic. Both with the pandemic and then later with the surge and now the reversal in immigration. We’ve seen a lot of movement in the, in the labor force, which makes unemployment rate a little tricky to interpret. And then I’d also argue, we saw early in the pandemic, the unemployment rate dropped very rapidly. We even had labor shortages. So in some ways unemployment rate rising and it has risen over. I mean, it continued to rise last year in 2025. A lot of that’s also normalization. We’d had a very low unemployment rate. So I think the, the pandemic recession has a lot of features that were very unusual. We’ll talk probably more about the labor market continued to be kind of unusual. So the, you know, the somal was not the only recession indicator to fall flat on its face in the cycle. Um, but I think it’s still a useful, useful guide and I, and. You know, even if it’s not a recession, the, the unemployment rate is a full percentage point above, its low in 2023. So, I mean, that, that could, that could be a reason for policymakers to respond, even if it’s not responding to a recession. Right. That was the first time that it, that triggered and, and actually didn’t. End up in a recession, right? There’s some back in the 1950s, earlier, but it’s, it’s the first time where there’ve been some false positives in the past or, or near false positives. Like in 2003. It was kind of close, uh, is like the unemployment rate rises a little bit and then it falls back down. What we saw after it triggered in 2024 is it stabilized. Then last year it continued to rise. So this the pattern that we’ve seen since the pandemic of rapid recovery dropping unemployment rate and then it’s like gradually rising and yet has risen a full percentage point that you go all the way back in the post World War II period. We don’t see anything that looks like that. So that is a very unusual. Paris. So something’s more is going on in the labor market than just our typical business cycle, boom, bust, recession type dynamics. So what is that? What is the thing that’s happening that’s unusual right now in the labor market? Right? So the thing that is driving the unemployment rate up, I think this is a good lesson, a reminder to all of us. It’s not about layoffs. The rate of layoffs in the United States is really quite low. You look at unemployment insurance claims, they’re also quite low. What’s been pushing the unemployment rate up over the last two and a half years has been a very low rate of hiring and, and it’s, and it is something that over time will at least gradually put upward pressure on the unemployment rate and frankly. Until hiring picks up and we really don’t have many signs of it. Even as we enter 2026 unemployment rate’s gonna probably keep drifting up ’cause we’re not keeping job creation’s, not keeping up with, you know, people coming into the, into the labor market and, and that what’s, I think the puzzle right now is that hiring has been very low. But what we’ve seen in terms of consumer spending, business investment, so the kind of the big pieces of GDP, they’ve really held up pretty well, so. Business. It’s not, again, not that recession of the customers have disappeared. And so we’re not hiring, or we may even be firing workers. The customers are there for the businesses, but they’re choosing in this environment not to add, uh, to their payrolls. And that’s slowly pushing up down point rate. Yeah. Um, you know, it, it’s interesting what you’re, you’re talking about, but essentially you’re, people aren’t getting fired. They’re just, when they retire or leave, they’re just not replacing those. Individuals, you know, makes me think a little bit about what’s going on in the big, you know, in the tech push with artificial intelligence and that kind of thing, and increased in efficiency. Certainly you see that in the larger companies like Amazon and all that, where they’re just becoming massively more productive and cutting expenses essentially by, you know, using tech. Do you think that this is sort of an early indication, potentially of that kind of movement? So it. It’s possible, but I think we’re at the very front end of AI disrupting the labor market. This low hiring rate that we’ve talked about. You see this across all kinds of industries, including ones that don’t show high levels of AI adoption, and frankly, a AI adoption is pretty low. I mean, there are some sectors like tech and increasingly finance and some professional services have higher adoption rates. Uh, but in terms of it being able to explain the low hiring. I think it’s pretty tough ’cause the low hiring is such a, such a broad based, um, phenomenon. Now, AI might be, I think, indirectly contributing in that one of, one of the hypotheses about why, um, businesses have been, uh, not hiring despite, you know, economic activity. Continuing to push ahead could be that there’s a lot of uncertainty. Now there is a long list that we could draw of, of factors that might be causing businesses to be uncertain and hesitant to add to their payrolls. Uh, a lot of times you talk about things with tariffs or, you know, economic policy, regulations changing, you know, so there’s a lot going on there. But it could also be, there’s a lot of uncertainty about what this technology means for the future. Maybe you don’t need to bring on more workers because your ability to kind of use and adapt this technologies coming online. And so like that could be part of it. I think there’s another piece, you know, we have a lot of discussion about ai, but I do think that there’s, there could be a, a technology angle to this that’s, that is. Not in the AI technologies, but maybe just some of the more basic kind of automation is again, right after, you know, the, the pandemic recession as we came out of a, you know, very rapid recovery, uh, there was, there was a lot of hiring or that, ’cause businesses had done a lot of firing and they needed to bring back workers really rapidly and we actually had a period of labor shortages. There were workers moving around a lot and there were, that also put a lot of pressure on some employers, particularly in service sector, to automate more ’cause they just couldn’t get the workers, so they needed to bring technology. Online to help, you know, fill the gap. And over time, you know, businesses though, they haven’t done as much hiring, they have been firing. So the workers, they have longer tenures, have more experience, they’re probably more productive. So maybe businesses can kind of, you know, get away with not doing more hiring. ’cause the people they have there can kind of keep up with it. Um, and they’ve done some more automation. I don’t think those are sustainable. I think we’re going to need to see hiring pickup in terms of, of staying with, um, you know, as expanding, uh, demand from customers. But I won’t pretend to know what AI means for the future of the labor force. Right. So like there could be, I think that’s a big conversation about we’re headed, where we’re headed. I think it’s probably a pretty small slice of explaining. Where we’re at right now. You know, it’s interesting because obviously there was a lot of concerns about rising inflation, and particularly in the context of, you know, tariffs and, and among those types of things that were, were, um, coming down the pipe. And as it turns out, inflation seems to be coming down. How do you explain that from where you sit? Because it, it, it seems sort of to contradict a lot of what, you know, many economists believe to be likely. So when thinking about the effects of tariffs on inflation and this, this idea that it didn’t end up being as much of a factors we had really feared, uh, you know, a year ago. I think there’s a few things to keep in mind. One, the announced tariffs, uh. Didn’t come to pass fully. Right? So there’s a big difference between some of the, the, the initial announcements, whether it was on Liberation Day, April 2nd, or the initial kind of retaliation tit for tat with China, where we ended up with some triple digit, uh, tariff numbers. Those didn’t end up being where we, we ended now tariff, the effect of tariff rate. Is much higher than it was before. Right. Uh, president Trump came into office for the second time, so like, I don’t wanna minimize the, the, the increase in tariffs and the US government collected about $200 billion last year in, in additional tariffs. But there is a, there’s a good bit of daylight between what was announced and where we actually ended up. Businesses also proved very capable of trying to avoid those tariffs and not in like a. Illegal kind of way of avoiding them, but, but using inventories like trying to get ahead of them. We know the tariffs are tariffs. There’s been some evidence that, that it’s businesses are gonna start passing on the tariff cost increase when it’s actually tied to the inventories that they’re putting out in front of customers. And for some of our goods, like say apparel or things that have long seasons or come from, you know, all across the world, it actually takes quite a bit of time from the inventories being what actually shows up in front of customers. So there’s been the ability to. Kind of get around the tariffs ’cause they were rolling in. And so do be smart in terms of your inventories. And then it just takes time for those inventories to be, you know, um, to come down. Mm-hmm. By, there’s been several studies at this place, at this point that, that demonstrate that the, the tariffs, the cost of the tariffs is coming into the us. So the, it’s always the importer that pays the tariff, like literally writes the check to the US government. But it’s possible that the foreign producer could say, reduce their prices on what they’re, you know, paying or what they’re asking to be paid for that, uh, imported good. And then that would be a way of the foreign producer sharing the cost of the tariff. But everything that we see from the M Court data suggests that a very small fraction, probably less than 10%. Of the total tariff burden is being born by, at least at this point, born by the foreign producers. So it’s coming into the us. It’s sitting with either US businesses that are importing the goods or have the goods at some point in their, you know, in their supply chains and, and with us customers, the consumers we have, we’ve seen. I think you can really look at the inflation data. You can see the goods prices, which often are kind of a drag on inflation that they did turn around. They’re, they’re putting upward pressure on inflation. It’s not massive. It doesn’t explain all of these, you know, 200 billion in tariff costs, but then it is, it’s sitting with businesses. The effects still, it’s still just not that long enough to really understand. You know what, what the implications. It’s possible. I, I think that’s true with any, with any big policy change. Like it doesn’t happen overnight. I think that’s one thing that a lot of, a lot of economic models that, like, they’re, they’re very sensitive, right? Like as soon as a policy change happens, the models will kind of tell us something pretty dramatic in terms of adjustments. But this last year was a reminder, like when there’s, when there’s a big cost, there’s gonna be a lot of attempts to adjust around it to try to minimize that cost and then. It takes time, like in the real world, like the interactions are much more complex. You know, inventory lags all of the, like, it takes time to move its way through. So I think we’re not done with the pass through. I think we’ll probably still see more come to consumers, but businesses could decide to bear that cost. They, they could, you know, with profit margins. I mean some of, some of the inflationary environment in the pandemic did allow. There were very broad base increases in prices. You did see some companies be profitable from that because it was, there was a, you know, some of the costs were more targeted, but the, you know, the, the price increases were broad. So it could be a time where businesses see that, you know, consumers are more price sensitive now than they were in 21, 20 21, 20 22, so they’re not passing as much on it. Could be that that’s part of where. Like the cost businesses are dealing with that cost by maybe doing less hiring as opposed to passing it on to consumers. Uh, you know, they could be taking a hit with their profits. They, you know, so like, it doesn’t have to go all the way through to consumers. There are different levers that can be pulled. I do think we’ll still see some pass through in the, in probably the first half of this year, and that’s assuming that our whole tariff regime. Sit still, right? It looks like once again we might be, uh, increasing those tariffs, but, um, so yeah, I think it’s just tracing, you know, the tariffs through the system is really complicated. And one last thing I’ll say about the tariffs is they’re not just tariffs on goods that go to consumers. These tariffs have been broad enough that we’re also taring imported goods that are used by our manufacturers used for our, by our businesses in their production. So then it can take a really long time for that to end up with the, you know, the end customer could be a business to start with, and then it moves its way down. So I think these are just, you know, the costs are real. We can see the tariffs have been collected, the costs are there. We can see in the import data, there haven’t been import price data, there haven’t been a lot of adjustments by the foreign suppliers. So then it’s just a question of, we have these costs. Where did the cost go? I believe the last GEP was 4.3% and, uh, inflation was around 2.6, 2.7, or at least core. You’ve obviously, uh, worked at the Fed. Um, give us a sense of the situation that the Fed is trying to figure out here. Like what do they do with these numbers and, you know, all of the issues that surround them. The work at the Fed, I mean, it, it’s laser focused on the, the response, the mandates that the Fed has. So with maximum employment and price stability and with maximum employment, that’s not something that can be easily defined. It’s not like it’s a particular unemployment rate, it’s not a particular payroll number. But I mean, broadly speaking, it’s, you know, do, are, you know, the people who wanna work, are they working? In such a way that it’s not putting pressure on inflation, right? Like labor shortages that end up with wage increases that just, you know, end up with inflation. Like that would be a situation where the Fed would actually want to kind of help restrain some of the. Uh, employment growth. And we, we saw that in this cycle. I mean, the Fed raised rates a lot in 2022 and 2023. Uh, so that’s the maximum employment on the stable prices. The Fed has set a target of the 2%, uh, year over year PCE inflation. So a little different than the CPI inflation, but very much related. And, and it’s one, I mean, that’s, that’s the goal, right? And it, uh. So it starts with those two pieces and, and what’s been, I think what’s been challenging in say the last year as the Fed was, you know, trying to figure out what it was gonna do with interest rates was the fact that it, there was pressure on both sides of the mandate. Mm-hmm. Um, and not necessarily the, well, I mean, inflation itself has, was above the 2%. It continues to be above the 2%. Target has been. Since 2021. Now the Fed’s policy doesn’t have a look back, but I mean, they do worry that the longer inflation stays closer to three than two businesses. Consumers are gonna start to kind of embed three into their actions, their expectations. Then you kind of get stuck there. So like that, that both, you know, they were missing on the inflation mandate and there were, there were concerns that the, that we might see inflation get stuck above the mandate and the way you dislodge it if it gets stuck. Could end up risking a recession, right? So the Fed doesn’t want that to happen. So that’s a real concern. But then on the employment side, you know, we started out talking about the small rule, the rising unemployment rate. We’ve seen the unemployment rate rising. And then last year in particular, it wasn’t just the unemployment rate rising, we saw job creation just really take a leg down. Um. Some of that probably is less immigration population aging, so less supply of workers, which isn’t something the Fed would react to. ’cause that, I mean, if you don’t have as many people that wanna work, you don’t need to create as many jobs. But the unemployment rate was rising, so it’s clear, like there just wasn’t, there wasn’t enough job creation to keep up with, um, the workers who were there, uh, to work. And, and there was a concern that this could, could spiral out. Those small increased unemployment rate that, that very low level of job creation. And frankly, if you look at, I mean the, I mean, we have multiple months and probably more after revisions of declines in payroll employment. Mm-hmm. Like if you looked at the labor market data, you’d be like, aren’t we in a recession or like on the edge of one? Again, that’s not where we’re at, but it, it certainly gave that, that risk. Things could be slowing down. And, and the, the last piece that was really important in the Fed’s decisions was where, where’s the federal funds rate? Where are the interest rate, the policy interest rate they control? And it was still relatively high. For, for recent history, right. Not in the long history of the Fed, but mm-hmm. And so, like the Fed had raised, they’d raised interest rates quite aggressively to fight the inflation in 2022. They’d very gradually lowered it. Some was taken out in 2023 because made some pro, made quite a bit of progress on inflation in, or in 2024, they lowered the rates in 2025, the 75 basis points of cuts that the Fed did. It was out of concern. Of the labor market unraveling a risk, not a, not saying, hey, the labor market is unraveling, but saying the risk that the downside risk to employment are larger and more worrisome than the upside risk to inflation. So this inflation getting stuck, is that still the case as a going into 2026 here? So, you know, even, even last year we saw, we listened to Fed officials, there’s quite a bit of disagreement. Because it was a tough situation to read. There are some Fed officials that were more focused on inflation, some that were more focused on the employment side. Uh, and it really was just a matter of kind of reading the economy and trying to figure out this, a very unusual situation, like where, where was this headed? What did the Fed need to do? In the end, the consensus on the Fed was to do the rate cuts, kind of front load them. They talked a lot about it as insurance. They’re taking out insurance against the labor market deteriorating. And I think with that approach, in all likelihood, and there’s been certainly signaling of this, that when they meet at the end of January, it’ll, they’re unlikely to move again. That this is, this will be an opportunity to hold steady, be patient the Fed has, has taken out their restriction. So they don’t have the higher rates, so they’ve pulled rates down. We also know that early this year there’s various kinds of fiscal support that are coming online or tax cuts to households and to businesses that should give a little extra lift, uh, to the economy. So I think it’s a period of the Fed waiting to see what the effects of their policy changes are, seeing what the effects of the fiscal policy with the expectation this will be enough to stabilize the labor market. Even help get it back on track and really what the Fed would like. I mean, we’ll see what they get, but they’d really like the next cut to be a good news cut. Like inflation. Oh look, it’s moving back down again. We’re making clear progress back to 2%. I think that’s probably gonna take maybe even till the middle of this year to build that case. A strong case for the disinflation. Mm-hmm. But that’s, that’s what they would, would like to do. But they’re gonna keep an eye on the labor market. But nothing we’ve seen in the most recent data suggests that they gotta get moving like that. There’s some, you know, real pressure building. Um, in fact, the labor market looks a little bit better probably than when they met in December and inflation. Showing some signs of progress, but it, it’s pretty bumpy in terms of, there’s a lot of noise in the data at the moment. You mentioned, um, the Fed’s mandate and you know, certainly that’s something, um, that, uh, you know, that, that we know the Fed looks at these unemployment numbers that look at inflation. I’m curious though, that there’s, you know, there is this push and pull with the treasury. In particular, you know, looking at the amount of, of, of, of bonds that need to be refinanced, that kind of thing. I mean, presumably that’s one of the reasons why the Trump administration is pushing so hard, uh, on the Fed to reduce, um, you know, to reduce rates so that you know, this sovereign debt can be refinanced at a, something a little bit more palatable. How much of that actually. I know it’s not supposed to play a part in the Federal Reserve’s actions, but in reality is there, is there that kind of, you know, thinking that, you know, they have to, they, they may try to play ball a little bit with the, with the situation, with the debt. Yeah. There, the, the Fed is not playing ball right now with the administration. Uh, but, but there have been, there have been times in our past. So during World War II, there was an explicit cooperation between the Fed and the Treasury. The Fed kept interest rates low. Both the federal funds rates, so the short term interest rates, they also did, uh, some purchases of longer term to help keep longer term rates down. Right. So I mean, the, the Fed really, they, their policy was oriented exactly on this objective, keeping the borrowing cost of the US government low because it was financing the war effort. So, so there have been times where the Fed has cooperated with treasury. Now, when they came out of World War ii. What happened is, you know, treasury wants to keep interest rates low. This is good for, you know, the economy, good for growth, but it was, it really was creating a lot of inflationary pressures and it took until the early 1950s for the Fed to kind of regain its kind of operational independence from treasury and then go back to pursuing, you know, inflation as a key goal. And then also in the late seventies and maximum employment was added as an explicit goal. So we’re in a place now where. It’s employment, it’s inflation, it, there was quite, um, I mean, president Trump and some other officials have been, you know, very open about saying rates should be low to help with the deficit, with funding the gov. So like, it’s, it’s been in the discussion in the air. But that’s not, that’s not a mandate that Congress has given the Fed. That’s not what they’re pursuing. It does, you know, but things can change at the Fed. We’re gonna see a change in leadership this year with a new Fed chair. Um, the Fed always, I mean, Congress created the Federal Reserve. It’s changed its abilities, its responsibilities over time. I don’t wanna say that we’ll never get back to a place where the Fed thinks about. Its effect on the deficit. I mean, they’re watching it, they know, right? They’re tracking all these aspects of the economy. But in terms of what’s driving the Fed’s decisions about what the, the federal funds rate should be, that’s not part of the calculus right now. Yeah. Um, you know, another, just another question is for clarity. You know, the, the, um, officially right now there’s, there’s no quantitative easing. However, there is. Uh, you know, I’ve been reading, uh, about even, I think even today, there was a, a fair amount of liquidity, uh, being injected in by the Fed. Can you, for people who don’t understand the mechanics of this and what the difference in terminology is, can you explain to us maybe what the difference is between quantitative easing and what’s being done right now? So just as for context, where quantitative easing even came from. So if we go back to the global financial crisis in 2008, the Federal Reserve, in response to that recession, pulled the federal funds rate all the way to zero. Cut rates to zero And as sure many of us remember that that recession was a very deep and long recession. So, and the unemployment rate was, you know, 10% and inflation was not a problem. So the, the Fed would want in that environment to do more to support the economy. But when the federal funds rate is at zero, that’s, its, that has been its primary tool. Well, that’s, that’s. Stepped out. So then as a question of, well, what else could we do to help support the economy? And, and there, there were. Different possibilities. Uh, some European central banks looked at, you know, they actually did negative interest rates or tried to pull their policy rates, and that’s not what the US did. What was done was to do purchases of, uh, treasuries. Uh, there’s also been purchases of mortgage backed securities, and this is where the Fed is. I mean, and, and they’re creating reserves. So the fed, I guess, secretary, uh. Treasury doesn’t refer to it as magic money. Um, you know, they create reserves and then they’re going out and they’re buying tr so they’re pushing that liquidity, that demand into markets. And if you’re, if there’s a lot more demand for treasuries, well, the price of the treasuries will go up. The yield comes down. Interest rates go down. Yep. Interest rates go down. So they. They were, the Fed wanted to support the economy more. That was the tool that they used to do it. So when, when the Fed talks about quantitative easing, it’s not just the tool, the asset purchases, it’s also the intent, right? They wouldn’t do quantitative easing right now. ’cause if the Fed thought they really need to stimulate the economy more, they’ve still got like. More than three percentage points they could cut from the federal funds rate. Like if the issue were right now, we need to like get the economy going, they’re gonna like cut the funds rate and do it that way. They wouldn’t be pur like purchasing assets, purchasing treasuries to do that. But what what happened is between the global financial crisis, the Great recession, so all the asset purchases done then. There was some, some runoff of the balance sheet, but then again, in the pandemic there were a lot of asset purchases. Uh, the Fed has a really big balance sheet, and it has, uh, it, it kind of changes the way that the Fed can even just move around the federal funds rate. Like, I don’t wanna get too much into the, the technicals, but it’s, it’s just, you know, when the Fed says, well, we wanna lower the, the funds rate to 3.5%. In the old days, they could kind of do, you know, with the bank reserves and they could like, make these small purchases and it would, it would make that stick. Now with, there’s, uh, banks have a lot of reserves, so they’re not as responsive. And so just to kind of, there’s like the, the technical, the tools, the Fed has to just make it happen. In terms of operationally, it means that they have to do some purchases now and then they call their, I mean the new name they have for these are reserve management. Purchases. So it’s really about operations. It’s not about, but it does mean they’re purchasing assets. So if you’re just focused on like the Fed’s purchasing assets, they’re putting liquidity into the system. Yes, they are doing that, but it’s not with the intent to kind of push the economy to run harder. It’s just enough liquidity to keep. The federal funds rate stable at the level that they wanted to be at, to just make sure that all these operations are short in the very short term lending markets amongst banks, that it’s all kind of working as mm-hmm. As it should be. So it’s more about operations and it’s about stimulus policy. Right. A lot of our, um, a lot of our listeners are real estate owners, investors, and they’re, you know, they think about, um. Mortgage rates and that kind of thing. There was recently a, a pretty significant, well, I don’t know how significant it really was. I think it was about, was it maybe $250 billion worth of mortgage backed securities purchased by Fannie Mae. Um, that ca can you talk about the purpose of that and really the, you know, what kind of effect that would actually, we could actually expect from that. It’s certainly been, I mean it’s, it is clear. You know, we talked about one reason that the administration would want interest rates down. It’d be like financing the deficit. Right. Another reason that very much pulls into kind of the affordability debate is we want interest rates lower, one of them lower for consumers. Now the White House has put a lot of pressure on the Fed for them to lower rates even faster than they have. Has not played ball with that. But then the Fed has lowered its rates. The Feds rates are very short term rates, and the federal funds rate is like an overnight rate with between banks. Right. So it, and it has an effect on, you know. Credit card rates, short term rates, but it’s not one, it, it has an effect, but it’s really not like driving necessarily 30 year mortgage rates or you know, some of the longer term rates. There’s a lot of other factors that go into that, and so in this kind of, you know, push for lower mortgage rates. Pushing on the Fed is not the only lever to pull, right? The administration has other levers that they could potentially pull, um, in trying to influence mortgage rates. Now, there, I’d argue the administration’s tools here, like the, the $200 billion, Fannie and Freddie purchase that you mentioned. That really is about trying to reduce the spread. Between mortgages and treasuries. So in some ways it sounds similar, like, oh, fed and Franny, which are, you know, GSEs. So part, part of the, you know, government right now, at least they were privatized during the global financial crisis. You think, oh, they’re going out and purchasing this Sounds a lot like the Fed going out and purchasing. There are there, there’s some parallels, but we need to remember, Fannie and Freddie don’t create money. The Fed, when they start, when they start the process of their quantitative easing, they’re creating reserves like they’re actually creating liquidity and money supply. Fannie and Freddie have authorization to be able to make these purchases, but they’re not like the fed. They’re not creating reserves, but they can, so I don’t wanna think about them like bringing down the whole set of interest rates, but they can affect this spread between mortgages and say treasuries. Right? And so, because again, if you’re, if the. If the GSEs are going out, they’re purchasing mortgage backed securities, well that’s increasing demand for those, and that can push down the rates, that can like squeeze that spread. And, and while the announcement has been made, you know, I mean they’re, they’re in the early stages of putting that in place, but we even on the announcements, saw a response in financial markets and you’re seeing some movement down, uh, in mortgage rates now. It was. Pretty modest, right? And, and 200 billion while, you know, not nothing, uh, really pales in comparison to like the scale of say, the quantitative easing that the Fed did. Um, and there are probably other, but the, you know, the administration’s not done. It doesn’t necessarily have to be that Fannie and Freddie do more purchases. The the spread between mortgage rates and treasuries is pretty substantial. There’s other places where, you know, the fees that go into getting a mortgage are quite a bit larger than they were before the, the global financial crisis. So maybe they go in and try to chip away at the fees and, you know, so there’s, there’s different levers. And I fully expect, and I think we’re gonna get some announcements here again soon on the White Houses. Housing affordability agenda. So there may be other, other ways that they’re trying to, uh, influence, uh, the mortgage spreads. But that’s, that’s what that is all about. And it, it should have, and it looks like, you know, it’s having some effect in terms of bringing rates down, but it likely, it’d be modest, like in the 10 basis points, maybe 20 if they ramp up the program some. But like, it, you know, it’s, it, it, you know, every, every bit counts. But this is not a. Uh, this won’t be enough to, you know, move rates down, dramatic mortgage rates down dramatically, uh, when you, when you look at the economy. Um, and I, I, I think just, you know, one last question. I mean, I just in terms of, you know, the people listening to this are. They’re, they’re people, you know, with jobs and who are trying to invest their money, and they’re trying to, you know, build long-term wealth, but they’re, you know, everybody’s worried about what’s happening with the economy. What, what, what do you think, like, just as, um, um, you know, perspective for people to understand or try to have some framework for how to look at what’s going on in the economy. How they should judge it. Like what would you suggest, like just for mom and pop investors trying to, what is happening with the economy? I’m not an economist. What, what are the, what are the things that you think they should consider studying up on, looking into a little bit? One challenge for a lot of investors, I mean, frankly, it’s, it’s been a challenge that I try to deal with too. Uh, we’re, we’re in an environment where there’s just. There’s so much news coming out of DC uh, with the White House and policies and the Fed, and you know, I mean, like, there’s just, there’s a lot. The headlines are big. And like I talked about with the tariffs, we had like really big tariff announcements. The really scary numbers were, and then it like dialed back and then we pushed through it and it’s like, and it’s this remembering that, um. There’s always a tendency to have this idea that the, the president really runs the economy. I mean, that’s not just about this administration. That’s like a longstanding, you know, the president gets, uh, blame or credit for the economy when really, right. Like we have a over 33, $30 trillion economy, hundreds of millions of workers, tens of millions of businesses. Like this is not about one administration. And so we always need to be careful about. Putting too much weight on the policies coming out of dc. Uh, and you know, last year if you really just listened to all the, you know, we’re cutting immigration, we’re raising tariffs, we’re doing, you know, all, there’s a lot of uncertainty in Doge. Well then you might have missed, like, there’s a bunch of AI investment happening and we’ve got a lot of growth in the economy and while consumers are still pretty resilient, so you, it’s kind of like. Tuning down the volume, some coming out of Washington, especially the like every twist and turn. Uh, and then kind of focusing in on the fundamentals. I will say, you know, you don’t wanna turn down DC too far because we, we do have some like big picture events that could play out over many years. Right. So kind of keeping an eye on it, but for the long game. As opposed to reacting to every twist and turn, every policy announcement, because a lot of this clearly is more of a negotiation than it is like, we’re gonna actually do this. So, you know, as investors, you don’t wanna get whipped around by the latest headline, but you also can’t put your head in the sand. Like you gotta kind of try and find a way to pull the signal out of the noise. And it is really. It’s really hard. Yeah. Like this has been a challenging time and the, the US economy’s been doing things that are not typical. We talked about some of the things with the labor market and we are running some policy experiments that haven’t been run in a long time, so things could change pretty dramatically. But I think it’s just trying to absorb the information, not get too wound up about it, but like also keep an eye on like what’s good for long-term growth. Yeah. Because it’s good for long-term productivity. Thank you so much Dr. Sahm. It’s uh, it’s been a pleasure talking to you on, uh, wealth Formula Podcast today. Great. Thank you so much. You make a lot of money but are still worried about retirement. Maybe you didn’t start earning until your thirties. Now you’re trying to catch up. Meanwhile, you’ve got a mortgage, a private school to pay for, and you feel like you’re getting further and further behind. Now, good news, if you need to catch up on retirement, check out a program put out by some of the oldest and most prestigious life insurance companies in the world. It’s called Wealth Accelerator, and it can help you amplify your returns quickly, protect your money from creditors, and provide financial protection to your family if something happens to you. The concept. Here are used by some of the wealthiest families in the world, and there’s no reason why they can’t be used by you. Check it out for yourself by going to wealthformulabanking.com. Welcome back to the show everyone. Hope you enjoyed it. It was Claudia Sahm. She is, uh, she’s a very, very smart lady. And, uh, just a reminder, if you have not done so, uh, I, I don’t frequently ask to do, do this, but, uh, make sure you give the show. Five stars and a positive review because that’s how we’re getting, you know, really high quality people like Claudia on the show, I’ve been around for a long time. It helps that the show is, you know, like over a decade old and all that stuff too. But, uh, anything you can do to support would be very helpful. And also one more reminder, uh, if you have not done so and you weren’t a credit investor, make sure you sign up for that investor club. At Wealth formula.com. That’s it for me. This week on Wealth Formula Podcast. This is about Joffrey signing out. If you wanna learn more, you can now get free access to our in-depth personal finance course featuring industry leaders like Tom Wheelwright and Ken m. Visit wealthformularoadmap.com.

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In this episode, Dylan Silver welcomes Alan Mack, founder of Mack Financial Services, who brings over 30 years of experience in the mortgage industry, particularly focusing on high net worth individuals. Alan shares insights on the current mortgage landscape, emphasizing the importance of pre-approval for first-time homebuyers and the unique challenges faced by affluent clients seeking loans for luxury properties. He discusses the impact of rising interest rates on the market and how his advisory firm has adapted to meet the needs of clients in the luxury sector, providing tailored solutions that go beyond traditional banking practices.   Professional Real Estate Investors - How we can help you: Investor Fuel Mastermind:  Learn more about the Investor Fuel Mastermind, including 100% deal financing, massive discounts from vendors and sponsors you're already using, our world class community of over 150 members, and SO much more here: http://www.investorfuel.com/apply   Investor Machine Marketing Partnership:  Are you looking for consistent, high quality lead generation? Investor Machine is America's #1 lead generation service professional investors. Investor Machine provides true 'white glove' support to help you build the perfect marketing plan, then we'll execute it for you…talking and working together on an ongoing basis to help you hit YOUR goals! Learn more here: http://www.investormachine.com   Coaching with Mike Hambright:  Interested in 1 on 1 coaching with Mike Hambright? Mike coaches entrepreneurs looking to level up, build coaching or service based businesses (Mike runs multiple 7 and 8 figure a year businesses), building a coaching program and more. Learn more here: https://investorfuel.com/coachingwithmike   Attend a Vacation/Mastermind Retreat with Mike Hambright: Interested in joining a "mini-mastermind" with Mike and his private clients on an upcoming "Retreat", either at locations like Cabo San Lucas, Napa, Park City ski trip, Yellowstone, or even at Mike's East Texas "Big H Ranch"? Learn more here: http://www.investorfuel.com/retreat   Property Insurance: Join the largest and most investor friendly property insurance provider in 2 minutes. Free to join, and insure all your flips and rentals within minutes! There is NO easier insurance provider on the planet (turn insurance on or off in 1 minute without talking to anyone!), and there's no 15-30% agent mark up through this platform!  Register here: https://myinvestorinsurance.com/   New Real Estate Investors - How we can work together: Investor Fuel Club (Coaching and Deal Partner Community): Looking to kickstart your real estate investing career? Join our one of a kind Coaching Community, Investor Fuel Club, where you'll get trained by some of the best real estate investors in America, and partner with them on deals! You don't need $ for deals…we'll partner with you and hold your hand along the way! Learn More here: http://www.investorfuel.com/club   —--------------------

Mortgage rates have dropped recently, which is great news for rookies looking to buy a rental property. But is NOW the right time for a cash-out refinance?   On one hand, tapping into the equity you've built up in your property could help you take down bigger and better investing opportunities, but on the other hand, a completely paid-off property might help you sleep better at night. We're weighing all of your options in today's episode!   Welcome to another Rookie Reply! Ashley and Tony are diving back into the BiggerPockets Forums, and today's first question comes from an investor who's working through a significant rental property repair. The tenant is making special requests, but should the landlord accommodate them? Next, we hear from someone who's considering a cash-out refinance for one of their properties. Is it worth deploying their money elsewhere, or is paid-off real estate the faster path to financial freedom? Finally, does commercial real estate offer better cash flow than single-family homes? The answer is a little more nuanced than you might think!   Looking to invest? Need answers? Ask your question here! In This Episode We Cover When to do a cash-out refinance with your investment property Paying off properties versus “recycling” home equity to scale faster How to accommodate tenants while making rental property repairs The pros and cons of commercial and residential real estate investing The best ways to find cash-flowing commercial real estate deals And So Much More! Check out more resources from this show on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠BiggerPockets.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/rookie-673 Interested in learning more about today's sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠advertise@biggerpockets.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode of the Loan Officer Podcast, host Dustin Owen sits down with Abdel Khawatmi, a top-producing mortgage loan officer based in New Jersey, for an in-depth conversation about success in the modern mortgage industry. Abdel shares his inspiring journey, detailing how he made the transition from a career in law to becoming a leading figure in the mortgage business. He explains the pivotal role that leveraging advanced systems, automation, and artificial intelligence played in rapidly scaling his business, resulting in a remarkable 30% increase in loan volume and an impressive 175% surge in overall profitability. Throughout the episode, Abdel provides valuable insights into his strategic approach to team management, emphasizing the importance of building a cohesive and motivated team to support growth. He discusses his methods for coaching and empowering real estate partners, fostering strong relationships that drive mutual success. The conversation delves into the practical aspects of integrating cutting-edge technology into daily operations, highlighting the efficiencies and competitive advantages gained through thoughtful implementation. Abdel also opens up about his personal life, sharing how he strives to maintain a healthy work-life balance while raising a family. He talks about the significance of providing financial education to his children, instilling in them the values of responsibility and long-term planning. Additionally, Abdel and Dustin explore the critical role that consistency, discipline, and accountability play in achieving sustained success in the mortgage industry. Listeners will gain actionable tips and inspiration for building a thriving, future-ready mortgage business while maintaining personal fulfillment and strong family connections.   TLOP's Originator Coaching: https://tloponline.com/mlo-coaching-programs/?utm_source=TLOP&utm_medium=Description&utm_id=YouTube    Loan officer looking for a new place to call home?

Bob Opiola is a 17 year member of the chicago fire department and talks about some lessons learned at a couple of close calls, with guest host Josh from the Frontline Mortgage Team

In this episode, Scott Ward and Tom Ulrich break down the key differences between DSCR loans and traditional mortgages, and why choosing the wrong one can slow down or completely stall your deal. They explain how DSCR loans are evaluated based on property cash flow instead of personal income, what lenders actually care about during underwriting, and where investors get tripped up when they assume the process is “easier.” You'll hear real-world examples, common mistakes to avoid, and practical guidance on when a DSCR loan makes sense versus a conventional mortgage. If you're investing in real estate or planning to scale, this episode helps you approach financing with clarity and confidence.

SBS Finance Editor Ricardo Gonçalves speaks with Canstar's Sally Tindall to find out if it is too late to fix your home loan interest rate ahead of what's expected to be a rise in official interest rates next week; plus Dianne Colledge from Morgans goes through the day's share market action including a preview of Donald Trump's pick of US Federal Reserve governor which is expected to be made at the weekend.

This bonus episode features Caeli Ridge from Ridge Lending Group, breaking down what's happening right now with DSCR loans and why they're getting so much attention from rental property investors.Caeli explains how DSCR loan rates have been coming down and are now very close to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac rates. We talk about why DSCR loans are often simpler than conventional mortgages, how they qualify based on the deal instead of the investor's personal income, and why that makes them especially attractive for investors.We also discuss how increased competition from DSCR lenders has pushed Fannie and Freddie to lower their down payment requirements. Single-family rental properties now require as little as 15 percent down. Caeli also walks through the documentation needed for conventional loans and what credit scores lenders are looking for.Listen in on a coaching call with Caeli and a client:  https://rentalincomepodcast.com/bonus-tinaContact Caeli:Websiteinfo@ridgelendinggroup.com1-855-747-4343

Special Guest: Dwyane Montoya#howimetyourmortgage​ #justthetipscoaching​ #justthetips​ #salescoachingdenver​ #salescoaching​ #realestate​ #mortgage​ #sales​ #salestips​ #businesstips​ #tunein​ #podcast​ #videocast​ #applepodcast​ #spotifypodcast

AP's Alex Veiga reports on current mortgage rates.

John is joined by Jon Lyons and John Sapochetti. We talk about the Patriots win in Denver and look ahead Super Bowl LX.

Click HERE to learn how to earn $10K/month in rental income & access 50% discount on RTR Academyhttps://landing.renttoretirement.com/evg-masterclass-replay

In this episode of the Real Estate Pros Podcast, host Micah Johnson interviews Nick Disney, a seasoned real estate investor specializing in mortgage notes. They discuss the importance of adapting strategies in a shifting market, the realities of passive income in real estate, and how to effectively manage mortgage notes. Nick shares insights on finding one's place in the real estate industry and emphasizes the significance of professionalism and education in achieving success. The conversation concludes with Nick offering ways for listeners to connect with him for further guidance.   Professional Real Estate Investors - How we can help you: Investor Fuel Mastermind:  Learn more about the Investor Fuel Mastermind, including 100% deal financing, massive discounts from vendors and sponsors you're already using, our world class community of over 150 members, and SO much more here: http://www.investorfuel.com/apply   Investor Machine Marketing Partnership:  Are you looking for consistent, high quality lead generation? Investor Machine is America's #1 lead generation service professional investors. Investor Machine provides true 'white glove' support to help you build the perfect marketing plan, then we'll execute it for you…talking and working together on an ongoing basis to help you hit YOUR goals! Learn more here: http://www.investormachine.com   Coaching with Mike Hambright:  Interested in 1 on 1 coaching with Mike Hambright? Mike coaches entrepreneurs looking to level up, build coaching or service based businesses (Mike runs multiple 7 and 8 figure a year businesses), building a coaching program and more. Learn more here: https://investorfuel.com/coachingwithmike   Attend a Vacation/Mastermind Retreat with Mike Hambright: Interested in joining a "mini-mastermind" with Mike and his private clients on an upcoming "Retreat", either at locations like Cabo San Lucas, Napa, Park City ski trip, Yellowstone, or even at Mike's East Texas "Big H Ranch"? Learn more here: http://www.investorfuel.com/retreat   Property Insurance: Join the largest and most investor friendly property insurance provider in 2 minutes. Free to join, and insure all your flips and rentals within minutes! There is NO easier insurance provider on the planet (turn insurance on or off in 1 minute without talking to anyone!), and there's no 15-30% agent mark up through this platform!  Register here: https://myinvestorinsurance.com/   New Real Estate Investors - How we can work together: Investor Fuel Club (Coaching and Deal Partner Community): Looking to kickstart your real estate investing career? Join our one of a kind Coaching Community, Investor Fuel Club, where you'll get trained by some of the best real estate investors in America, and partner with them on deals! You don't need $ for deals…we'll partner with you and hold your hand along the way! Learn More here: http://www.investorfuel.com/club   —--------------------

Housing is broken. Rent is insane. Mortgages are brutal. And because of that, something old is becoming new again: multi-generational living. In this episode, I talk through why more families are stacking back up under one roof, why this isn't some fringe prepper idea, and how it's quietly becoming one of the most practical adaptations people are making right now. This isn't nostalgia or ideology. It's math, pressure, and reality.

This is a live CRM audit that breaks down the 3 rules that actually win in sales, in any market.I went back to the front lines, turned leads back on, and in days proved the same fundamentals still work. Not because of timing or luck, but because sales is a game of speed, follow-up, and emotion.In this video you'll see:• How to creates deals before competitors even wake up• The follow-up strategy that forces responses• How to work new, hot, and old leads inside your CRM• How top performers sell using emotion• The daily rhythm that keeps every stage of the pipeline movingSupport the showJoin our weekly calls so you we can help you too!

In this episode of We Chat Divorce, Karen Chellew, Legal Liaison, and Catherine Shanahan, CDFA®, sit down with Jody Bruns, founder of the Certified Divorce Lending Professional (CDLP®) certification and the creator of the divorce mortgage planning profession. The conversation focuses on one of the most expensive and misunderstood parts of divorce: the marital home and the mortgage attached to it. With interest rates, refinancing challenges, and equity decisions shaping modern divorce settlements, this episode breaks down why housing decisions made without preparation often lead to permanent financial consequences. In This Episode, We Cover Why you cannot simply remove a spouse from a mortgage after divorce The difference between a traditional mortgage lender and a Certified Divorce Lending Professional (CDLP®) How refinancing really works — including escrow accounts, taxes, insurance, and closing costs Why alimony and child support payment structure matters for mortgage approval What lenders require to use support income for qualification The financial risks of keeping the house versus selling it How capital gains taxes and filing status changes impact long-term equity Why mortgage assumptions are complex, limited, and not guaranteed The dangers of quitclaim deeds and poorly written settlement language How title changes after divorce can expose homeowners to liens, probate issues, and loss of control Key Takeaway You may want to keep the house. You may even be able to afford it. That does not mean you can qualify to keep it — or that it's the smartest financial decision. Without coordinated legal, financial, and mortgage planning, housing decisions in divorce often become the most costly mistakes people make. About Our Guest Jody Bruns has over 35 years of experience in mortgage and finance and is nationally recognized for her work at the intersection of divorce, real estate, and lending. Through her certification program and professional training, she helps divorcing homeowners and divorce professionals navigate housing decisions with clarity and strategy.

In this NoteQueen Podcast, Dawn and Tim talk about selling real estate in today's market. Many people can save tens of thousands selling their homes themselves, but professional guidance and key positioning will greatly determine the net result.Tim's website: https://foolprooffsbo.com/Another method is offering owner financing, whether you intend to carry paper or not. What you want is as many eyeballs on the property as humanly possible. Dramatically expand the pool of potential buyers. Don't miss these strategic tips... they will make or save you thousands.FREE Real Estate and Note Investing Training

Click HERE to learn how to earn $10K/month in rental income & access 50% discount on RTR Academyhttps://landing.renttoretirement.com/evg-masterclass-replay

Real Estate Expert & Best-Selling Author, Gerald Lucas discusses whether it's better to pay your mortgage biweekly or monthly.

Credit Card Expert Eli Facenda shows how entrepreneurs can turn everyday business expenses into first class flights and luxury hotels using these credit card point hacks. He breaks down how to unlock 700,000-points with a special 400,000 bonus and also covers how paying payroll, rent, life insurance premiums, and potentially mortgages with these credits cards, can become a tax-efficient way to fund unforgettable travel experiences. Access All of Eli's Free Resources - https://www.freedomtravelsystems.com/betterwealth Want a Life Insurance Policy? Go Here: https://bttr.ly/bw-yt-aa-clarity Want FREE Whole Life Insurance Resources & Education? Go Here: https://bttr.ly/yt-bw-vault Want Us To Review Your Permanent Life Insurance Policy? Click Here: https://bttr.ly/yt-policy-review 00:00 Introduction 01:04 Eli Facenda | CEO at Freedom Travel Systems 01:34 New Credit Card Strategy 02:20 Getting $30,000 in Value in 60 Seconds 02:42 Four Buckets of "Points People" 06:04 How to Achieve the $30,000 Return with the Capital One Venture X Business Card 08:25 Analyzing Fees for Using Credit Cards for Payroll and Mortgage 10:49 Tax Benefit of Credit Card Points 17:40 Points Arbitrage Without International Travel 19:38 Other Recommended Cards and 2026 Bonuses 24:45 The Hilton Black Market Points Story 28:33 Gifting Points to Employees and Friends 31:00 Thoughts on the Built Card for Rent and Mortgage Payments 37:16 Script for Hacking Hotel Upgrades 42:02 Purpose of Experiential Wealth and Five Regrets of the Dying 48:00 Experiential Millionaire Framework 52:08 Final Thoughts ______________________________________________ Learn More About BetterWealth: https://betterwealth.com ==================== DISCLAIMER: https://bttr.ly/aapolicy *This video is for entertainment purposes only and is not financial or legal advice. Financial Advice Disclaimer: All content on this channel is for education, discussion, and illustrative purposes only and should not be construed as professional financial advice or recommendation. Should you need such advice, consult a licensed financial or tax advisor. No guarantee is given regarding the accuracy of the information on this channel. Neither host nor guests can be held responsible for any direct or incidental loss incurred by applying any of the information offered.

Work with Jimmy & the Vreeland Capital Team to build a 20-Unit Portfolio that will get you the equivalent of a retirement account 3X faster with a third of the capital. Visit https://tinyurl.com/mainstreetpatriot... In this episode of The Real Estate Fast Pass, hosts Jimmy Vreeland and Susie Vreeland break down a headline making the rounds in the mortgage world and use it as a springboard to explain what actually moves 30-year mortgage rates. Jimmy unpacks how Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac support lending liquidity through mortgage-backed securities, why mortgage rates tend to track the 10-year Treasury, and what happens when big institutional buyers step in (or step out) of the bond market. From there, they zoom out to the bigger truth: even if rates dip, affordability doesn't magically fix itself when the real constraint is housing supply—lower rates can just pour gasoline on demand and push prices higher. If you're trying to build long-term wealth, this conversation will help you tune out the noise, understand the system, and focus on the repeatable move: lock in smart, stable assets, use leverage responsibly, and keep stacking 30-year fixed “boats in the water” while everyone else is chasing headlines. About Jimmy Vreeland Jimmy graduated from the United States Military Academy at West Point, spent 5 years as an Army Ranger, and deployed three times twice to Iraq and once to Afghanistan. On his last deployment, he read Rich Dad Poor Dad by Robert Kiyosaki which led him down the path of real estate investing. As his own portfolio grew, eventually he started a real estate investing business.  Since 2018 his team at Vreeland Capital has supplied over 100 houses a year to high performing, passive investors who want to work with his team and his team is now managing over 800 houses. Get in touch with Jimmy and his team at www.jimmyvreeland.com/getstartedinrealestate More about Jimmy Website: www.jimmyvreeland.com Linkedin: www.linkedin.com/in/jimmy-vreeland Instagram: www.instagram.com/jimmyvreeland Facebook: www.facebook.com/JimmyVreeland Youtube: www.youtube.com/@JimmyVreelandC >>>>>>Get free access to the private Ranger Real Estate facebook group

Links & ResourcesFollow us on social media for updates: ⁠⁠⁠Instagram⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠YouTube⁠⁠⁠Check out our recommended tool: ⁠⁠⁠Prop Stream⁠⁠⁠Thank you for listening!

Housing is broken. Rent is insane. Mortgages are brutal. And because of that, something old is becoming new again: multi-generational living. In this episode, I talk through why more families are stacking back up under one roof, why this isn't some fringe prepper idea, and how it's quietly becoming one of the most practical adaptations people are making right now. This isn't nostalgia or ideology. It's math, pressure, and reality. "Multi-Generational Living Is Back (Whether You Planned for It or Not) | Episode 579" The post Multi-Generational Living Is Back (Whether You Planned for It or Not) | Episode 579 appeared first on Survivalpunk.

Work with Me https://ashborland.com  Follow me on IG https://www.instagram.com/ashborland/  Can you remove all emjois and —  The FREE 30-Day Mortgage Broker Boost https://ashborland.com/boost Check out my YouTube channel  https://www.youtube.com/@AshBorland  Automate fact-finds, document checks, and medical questionnaires. Get a 2-month free trial: https://calendly.com/keychain-1/keychain-ash-borland 

In this loanofficerpodcast.com episode, Chris Johnstone breaks down how artificial intelligence is changing the way borrowers search for homes, get financing, and choose who they work with. After live demonstrations and conversations with mortgage organizations on the road, this episode explains why once consumers experience AI-driven convenience, the market will not go back.   The episode walks through a practical weekly strategy that combines AI, relationship marketing, and consistent follow-up to build authority, generate referrals, and stay ahead of the shift already happening in real estate and mortgage lending.   In this episode, you will learn: How a weekly AI-driven newsletter builds trust, authority, and referrals How engaged readers can be turned into real conversations and opportunities Why AI-powered browsing and automation are changing borrower expectations   To see this strategy built live and get the copy-and-paste AI prompts, register for the free Friday class at LOAIClass.com

**When Self-Employment Complicates Your Home Purchase (And How to Fix It)**This week on the Accunet Mortgage and Realty Show, David and Brian tackle the trickiest scenarios in mortgage lending—self-employed borrowers who don't fit the traditional two-year mold.If you own your own business or work for a family member, listen up. The guys walk through two real-world cases where creativity and advocacy turned potential deal-killers into successful closings. From IRA withdrawals that bypass Social Security documentation to adding back one-time paper business expenses, you'll learn the moves that help mortgage underwriters say yes.They also tackle the question on every buyer's mind: “Should I wait for the Fed to cut rates?” The answer might surprise you—and could save you from missing today's opportunity while waiting for tomorrow's maybe.Plus: Why a “drop” in home sales isn't what it seems, how inventory is actually improving in Milwaukee, and why the best time to house hunt might be during a polar vortex when other buyers are hiding under blankets.Whether you're self-employed, thinking about refinancing, or wondering if now's the right time to buy, this episode gives you the inside scoop from two veterans who've seen it all. No fluff, just practical advice.​​​​​

In this episode of Excess Returns, Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather joins Matt Zeigler to unpack what she calls the Great Housing Reset. Rather than a housing crash or correction, Fairweather argues the market is entering a multi year transition toward something more normal, where incomes gradually catch up to home prices and affordability improves at the margin. The conversation covers mortgage rates, supply constraints, regional housing dynamics, climate risk, policy tradeoffs, and how AI is reshaping real estate decisions for buyers, renters, and investors.Topics covered in this episode• Why the current housing market is a reset, not a crash or correction• How income growth outpacing home price growth could slowly improve affordability• Mortgage rate dynamics and why rates may stay near the low 6 percent range• The mortgage rate lock in effect and why inventory may take years to normalize• Regional housing trends including the Midwest, Northeast, Sunbelt, and tech hubs• The role of wages, rents, and affordability for Gen Z and first time homebuyers• Investor activity, rental markets, and the outlook for housing as an investment• Immigration, foreign buyers, and local market distortions• Multi generational living, ADUs, and creative housing solutions• Housing policy ideas that actually address supply constraints• Why demand side policies like 50 year mortgages miss the real problem• Climate risk, insurance costs, and total cost of home ownership• How AI and conversational search are changing the home buying process• The future of MLS consolidation and real estate market structure• Practical guidance for renters, buyers, and homeowners looking ahead to 2026Timestamps00:00 Introduction and the Great Housing Reset02:00 What a housing reset really means03:30 Income growth versus home price growth05:20 Mortgage rates and the outlook for borrowing costs08:40 Fed policy, bond markets, and mortgage rates10:40 Inventory shortages and the lock in effect12:30 Regional housing market winners and losers16:00 Affordability challenges for younger buyers19:00 Rental markets and investor dynamics21:20 Multi generational living and ADUs25:00 Housing policy and supply constraints29:30 Why 50 year mortgages do not solve affordability33:00 Geographic housing outlook by life stage39:30 Climate risk, insurance, and housing costs47:00 Energy efficiency and dense housing50:20 AI, real estate search, and market structure54:30 What to watch in the housing market through 202659:30 Book discussion and where to follow Daryl Fairweather

Millions of Canadian mortgages taken out at ultra-low rates between 2020 and 2022 are now coming up for renewal – at much higher rates. That reality has led many to warn about a "mortgage renewal cliff" in 2026. Doug Hoyes is joined by Ron Butler (Butler Mortgage, Angry Mortgage Podcast) to unpack what's behind the renewal headlines, why renewal is a cash-flow test (not a crystal ball) and how homeowners can think clearly about their options as low-rate mortgages reset. A clear look at who may feel pressure at renewal, and how borrowers can think through their options before renewal letters arrive. 00:00 – What the "mortgage renewal cliff" actually means 03:10 – Which mortgages are renewing in 2026 06:00 – Why renewal math is very different from origination 09:30 – How bond yields flow through to mortgage rates 12:30 – Cash flow vs home equity at renewal 16:20 – Who is most at risk — and why 20:10 – House prices, equity, and renewal decisions 23:40 – Why even small delinquency increases matter 26:10 – How borrowers should think about renewal decisions 29:15 – Why renewal is a math test, not a market prediction Butler Mortgage Angry Mortgage Podcast on YouTube  Scott Terrio on the Angry Mortgage Podcast Ron Butler live stream on Debt Free in 30  Mortgage Rate Charts Butler Mortgage Rates   Butler Mortgage Calculator   Toronto Real Estate Price History Subscribe to Debt Free Digest Newsletter – Don't Miss the Chance to WIN a Copy of The Wealthy Barber! Other sources:  https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/07/staff-analytical-note-2025-21/  https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/01/staff-analytical-note-2025-1/  https://wowa.ca/infographics-finance-realestate-canada/mortgage-renewals-of-major-canadian-lenders  https://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/2025/10/canada-faces-400-mortgage-payment-spike-how-banks-are-preparing-for-the-renewal-storm/  https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/f9a87ba8-9962-4265-a2a9-e51303e269ca/  https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3310053001    Disclaimer: The information provided in the Debt Free in 30 Podcast is for entertainment and informational purposes only and is not intended as personal financial advice. Individual financial situations vary and may require personal guidance from a financial professional. The views expressed in this episode do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Hoyes, Michalos & Associates, or any other affiliated organizations. We do not endorse or guarantee the effectiveness of any specific financial institutions, strategies, or digital tools/apps discussed.  

Featured on WGN Radio's “Home Sweet Home Chicago” on Jan. 24, 2026: Tim Stearns, owner and president of TJ Stearns Financial Planning & Benefits, joins David Hochberg to discuss how he helps his clients plan for their futures. For more information, call 800-640-2256.

Featured on WGN Radio's “Home Sweet Home Chicago” on Jan. 24, 2025: IRS tax attorney Steven A. Leahy of the Law Office of Steven A. Leahy, PC, with Opem Tax Advocates, joins the program to discuss helping clients with tax returns, setting up bookkeeping, and protecting what you own. Go to fightbacknow.com or call 312-664-6649.

Featured on WGN Radio's Home Sweet Home Chicago on 01/24/26: Jim Brown of The Sarah Leonard Team at Legacy Properties joins the show to talk about the stigma that comes with marketing a home “as-is” and buyers’ offers. To learn more about what Rob, Sarah, and her team can do for you, go to sarahleonardsells.com or call […]

We started this week's show by chatting with Tim Stearns, owner and president of TJ Stearns Financial Planning & Benefits, about how he has no minimum, and his only requirement is being a good person. Next, IRS tax attorney Steven Leahy of Opem Tax Advocates chats about how to protect assets in your business. Then, Jim […]

In the first half of the show, David, a long time associate of Queen's Realm, talks about note and private loan deals he's done recently. Every day people can do this... it's not rocket science! David hired Dawn to be over his shoulder throughout the underwriting process, to be that second pair of eyes.The second half of the recording is hosted exclusively in our Citizens of the Realm free private community. Join to access the Full Replays of our Property & Paper Live Sessions: https://my.notequeen.com/communities/groups/citizens/homeIn the second half of the show Kennesha gets some answers on how to handle a problem note for a friend. Luckily for her friend, she's in charge and going to be able to rescue profits. Not everyone is so lucky.FREE Real Estate and Note Investing Training

On this Episode of No Brains No Headache Podcast, Jordan is in studio for an interview with Andrew "Mortgage Mac" McClure to discuss:-Growing up in Arizona-Starting a Podcast-Road Trips-Playing College Hoops-Current Real Estate Market-Becoming a Mortgage Lender-Tips & Advice for Young or First Time Homeownersand much more...Apple PodcastsSpotifyiHeartRadio.YouTube. youtube.com/@NobrainsnoheadacheNew episode every Tuesday!X. x.com/nbnhpodcastInstagram. nobrains_noheadacheFacebook. https://www.facebook.com/nbnhpodcastYouTube. youtube.com/@NobrainsnoheadacheTik Tok. @nobrains_noheadache

In this conversation, Marco Bario, a note investor, shares his journey into the world of note investing, focusing on seller financing and the secondary market. He explains the process of creating notes, the appeal of seller financing for both sellers and buyers, and the legal considerations involved. Marco also discusses the growing interest in note investing as an alternative to traditional banking, emphasizing the benefits of cash flow without the headaches of property management. He concludes by providing resources for those interested in learning more about the note investing space.   Professional Real Estate Investors - How we can help you: Investor Fuel Mastermind:  Learn more about the Investor Fuel Mastermind, including 100% deal financing, massive discounts from vendors and sponsors you're already using, our world class community of over 150 members, and SO much more here: http://www.investorfuel.com/apply   Investor Machine Marketing Partnership:  Are you looking for consistent, high quality lead generation? Investor Machine is America's #1 lead generation service professional investors. Investor Machine provides true 'white glove' support to help you build the perfect marketing plan, then we'll execute it for you…talking and working together on an ongoing basis to help you hit YOUR goals! Learn more here: http://www.investormachine.com   Coaching with Mike Hambright:  Interested in 1 on 1 coaching with Mike Hambright? Mike coaches entrepreneurs looking to level up, build coaching or service based businesses (Mike runs multiple 7 and 8 figure a year businesses), building a coaching program and more. Learn more here: https://investorfuel.com/coachingwithmike   Attend a Vacation/Mastermind Retreat with Mike Hambright: Interested in joining a "mini-mastermind" with Mike and his private clients on an upcoming "Retreat", either at locations like Cabo San Lucas, Napa, Park City ski trip, Yellowstone, or even at Mike's East Texas "Big H Ranch"? Learn more here: http://www.investorfuel.com/retreat   Property Insurance: Join the largest and most investor friendly property insurance provider in 2 minutes. Free to join, and insure all your flips and rentals within minutes! There is NO easier insurance provider on the planet (turn insurance on or off in 1 minute without talking to anyone!), and there's no 15-30% agent mark up through this platform!  Register here: https://myinvestorinsurance.com/   New Real Estate Investors - How we can work together: Investor Fuel Club (Coaching and Deal Partner Community): Looking to kickstart your real estate investing career? Join our one of a kind Coaching Community, Investor Fuel Club, where you'll get trained by some of the best real estate investors in America, and partner with them on deals! You don't need $ for deals…we'll partner with you and hold your hand along the way! Learn More here: http://www.investorfuel.com/club   —--------------------

Are you worried about falling behind on your mortgage — or already feeling the pressure?You're not alone, and more importantly, there are steps you can take right now to protect your home, your credit, and your future.In this powerful episode of Moving Sucks, Seth gets real about the emotional and financial weight of mortgage challenges — and how to face them head-on. From job loss to rising taxes and unexpected life changes, he breaks down the most common reasons homeowners find themselves struggling... and offers proactive, practical solutions to get ahead of the problem.Learn how to build an emergency fund before you need it, when to contact your lender, how to navigate loan modifications and forbearance options, and why knowing your equity position could be the key to making the right decisions.

In this episode of The Mortgage Show, Chris and Randy break down a rollercoaster week in the mortgage world. They dig into the brief dip into the 5s, why it didn't last, and what actually drives rate movement behind the scenes, including mortgage-backed securities, global factors, and inflation pressure.They also talk real-world strategy, when refinancing actually makes sense, how to be ready when rates move, why fast closings matter more than ever, and what borrowers can do to put themselves in a position to win. Plus, a look at rising credit report costs, debt consolidation through refis, and why local market conditions still matter.Mortgage talk with context, honesty, and a little fun mixed in.

Everyone's wondering what the mortgage market has in store for 2026, so Rob & Rob have called in mortgage experts Kelly Rule and Nick Shepard to break it down.  From where interest rates are heading next to what's really happening with lender fees and stress tests, they discuss what property investors can realistically expect over the coming months, while busting a few myths along the way.  (00:54) News story of the week.  (03:58) Buy-to-let rates now and where they're heading.  (07:46) The truth about arrangement fees.  (11:26) Which lenders are offering the best deals this year?  (14:21) Are stress tests finally starting to ease?  (21:18) The mortgage myths catching investors out.  (27:20) Hub Extra.   Links mentioned:  The 10 UK locations which could see the biggest house price growth in 2026 – read here  Blackbird: Watch here  Chief of War: Watch here   Pluribus: Watch here  Enjoy the show?  Leave us a review on Apple Podcasts - it really helps others find us!  Sign up for our free weekly newsletter, Property Pulse  Find out more about Property Hub Invest 

Mortgage rates edge upward but remain near a three year low. AP correspondent Alex Veiga reports.

This week on Power House, Zeb Lowe sits down with Anthony Casa, President and CEO of UMortgage, for a candid conversation about what actually drives long-term success in the mortgage business. Anthony reflects on his decades in the industry, sharing why mentorship remains one of the most critical (and most overlooked) factors for loan originators. He explains how building early relationships with real estate agents compounds over time, why consistency matters more than short-term wins, and how earning trust is still the foundation of every successful career. The conversation also takes a personal turn as Anthony opens up about his own transformation, including sobriety and renewed focus on health and wellness, and how those changes reshaped his leadership style. He connects personal discipline to professional performance, arguing that sustainable success in mortgage lending starts with how leaders take care of themselves. Anthony and Zeb also dig into the industry's structural shift from retail to broker channels, discussing why compensation, flexibility, and culture are driving that movement—and how marketing strategies must evolve to support it. This episode is a grounded look at mentorship, leadership, and why the long game still matters in mortgage. Here's a glimpse of what you'll learn: Why mentorship is essential for new loan officers How early agent relationships compound into long-term success What Anthony's personal transformation taught him about leadership Why health and wellness matter in high-pressure careers How the broker channel is reshaping mortgage competition Why culture and autonomy attract top talent How marketing strategies should match individual sales goals Why consistency beats intensity over time How to succeed in today's market conditions Why earning trust still matters more than tactics The Power House podcast brings the biggest names in housing to answer hard-hitting questions about industry trends, operational and growth strategy, and leadership. Join HousingWire president Diego Sanchez every Thursday morning for candid conversations with industry leaders to learn how they're differentiating themselves from the competition. Hosted and produced by the HousingWire Content Studio.

LISTEN and SUBSCRIBE on:Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/watchdog-on-wall-street-with-chris-markowski/id570687608 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2PtgPvJvqc2gkpGIkNMR5i WATCH and SUBSCRIBE on:https://www.youtube.com/@WatchdogOnWallstreet/featured  Presidents don't set interest rates. Markets do.In this segment, Chris explains why trying to “force” low interest rates—whether by the Fed, the White House, or political pressure—is an exercise in futility. From Trump's Davos comments to Fed rate cuts that didn't lower long-term borrowing costs, the bond market keeps delivering the same message.The Fed cut rates by 175 basis points since September 2024—yet 30-year Treasury yields jumped from under 4% to nearly 5%. Mortgage bond purchases? Temporary blips, then right back up.The bond vigilantes are real, and they don't care about speeches or spin.If you want lower rates, there's only one answer: get fiscal discipline under control—balance the budget and pay down debt. Everything else is noise.

Mortgage advisor and networking strategist Sarah Hubbard shares insights on her Networking MAPP Framework from her book The Intentional Networker. Reach her at sarahh@vertexmail.com and download her AI prompts at https://sarahhubbard.myflodesk.com/aipromptsitn. For more great insight on professional relationships and business networking contact Frank Agin at frankagin@amspirit.com.

The Trump administration has been exploring the possibility of 50-year mortgages as a way of lowering home costs for Americans. Most industry professionals think it's a bad idea. The administration is also pursuing other possibilities to affect the cost for buyers. We talk about how these proposals might work, and we take an updated look at the regional housing market. In studio: Lanie Bittner, associate real estate broker with RE/MAX Plus Jason Mancuso, real estate salesperson with the Anthony Butera Team at Keller Williams Realty Mark Siwiec, broker and owner of Elysian Homes by Mark Siwiec and Associates ---Connections is supported by listeners like you. Head to our donation page to become a WXXI member today, support the show, and help us close the gap created by the rescission of federal funding.---Connections airs every weekday from noon-2 p.m. Join the conversation with questions or comments by phone at 1-844-295-TALK (8255) or 585-263-9994, email, Facebook or Twitter. Connections is also livestreamed on the WXXI News YouTube channel each day. You can watch live or access previous episodes here.---Do you have a story that needs to be shared? Pitch your story to Connections.

Oh boy, grab your hard hat and hold onto your toolbox because Eric G is diving into the wild world of the housing market and remodeling for 2026! Spoiler alert: things are getting real “interesting” out there. Builder confidence is dropping faster than my patience when I can't find my favorite tool, with a recent dip to a not-so-rosy 37 on the index. But fear not, we're also seeing renovation spending gearing up for a little comeback, so maybe there's hope for our home improvement dreams yet! Join me as I dissect the chaos of today's market, the absurdity of house flips that make you question humanity, and what the future might hold as we navigate this ever-turbulent housing landscape. You won't want to miss this midweek update filled with sarcasm, insights, and a sprinkle of good old-fashioned mockery—because really, who doesn't need a laugh while discussing home prices? The housing market is like that friend who promises to show up but always bails last minute—totally unreliable and frustratingly unpredictable. This week, Eric G dives deep into the current state of housing and remodeling, predicting what 2026 might look like for all of us poor souls trying to make sense of it. Spoiler alert: it's not all sunshine and rainbows. With builder confidence dropping and sales expectations plummeting, it's clear that we're in for a bumpy ride. Just when you thought things couldn't get worse, 40% of builders are cutting prices like they're at a clearance sale—except, you know, it's not a great sign for the overall market. We're talking average price drops of 6%, which is just sad and tells you everything you need to know about the state of affairs. But wait, there's a glimmer of hope! Renovation spending is on the rise for 2026, which might just save our collective sanity. It's like finding a five-dollar bill in your pocket when you thought you were broke. Eric also dishes out some juicy tidbits about the ongoing trade shows in the construction world—where the tools come out to play, and the latest trends do a little dance. From World of Concrete to the International Builder Show, there's a lot happening, and Eric promises to keep us in the loop, even if it means dragging us through the mud of the current housing crisis. As if that weren't enough, Eric has a brilliant idea brewing—he's considering a podcast series dedicated to the absolute horror shows that are some of the house flips he's seen around Portland. Seriously, folks, it's like a train wreck you can't look away from. So, strap in and prepare for a wild ride as we navigate the murky waters of the housing market together. Let's just hope we don't need to build an ark by 2026!Takeaways:The housing market is cooling down with builder confidence falling to 37 in January, not exactly a glowing endorsement for future buyers.Almost 40% of builders are cutting prices, and the average price reduction has jumped to 6%, which is just a little alarming if you ask me.If you thought renovations were on the rise, you might be right—spending on home improvements is expected to rise throughout 2026. Yay for us!Mortgage rates are sitting at about 6.06%, which is the lowest we've seen since late 2022, but don't get too excited about the good old days of 3%.Everyone seems to be holding off on major HVAC upgrades because prices are skyrocketing, and who wants to drop a fortune on a heat pump right now?Energy-efficient upgrades, like EV chargers, are losing their charm in 2026 as more homeowners already have them...

Our co-heads of Securitized Products Jay Bacow and James Egan explain why recent U.S. government measures won't change much the outlook for mortgage rates, home prices and sales this year.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Jay Bacow: Jim Egan, I see you sitting across from me wearing a quarter zip. As old things become new again, my teenager would think that is trendy. James Egan: I think this is one of, if not the first, times in my life that a teenager has thought I was trendy, including back when I was a teenager. Jay Bacow: Well, as captain of the chess team in high school, I was never trendy. But Jim… Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Jay Bacow, co-head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley. James Egan: And I'm Jim Egan, the other co-head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley. Today, we're here to talk about some of the programs that are being announced and their implications for the mortgage and U.S. housing markets. It's Tuesday, January 20th at 10am in New York. Now, Jay, there have been a lot of announcements from this administration. Some of them focused on affordability, some of them focused on the mortgage market, some of them focused on the housing market. But I think one of them that had the biggest impact, at least in terms of trading sessions immediately following, was a $200 billion buy program from the GSEs. Can you talk to us a little bit about that program? Jay Bacow: Sure. As you mentioned, President Trump announced that there would be a $200 billion purchase of mortgages, which later was confirmed by FHFA director Bill Pulte, to be purchased by Fannie and Freddie. Now, we would highlight putting this $200 billion number in context. The market was probably expecting the GSEs to buy about a hundred billion dollars of mortgages this year. So, this is maybe an incremental a hundred billion dollars more. The mortgage market round numbers is a $10 trillion market, so in the scope of the size of the market, it's not huge. However, we're only forecasting about [$]175 billion of growth in the mortgage market this year, so this is the GSEs buying more than net issuance. It's also similar in size to the Fed balance sheet runoff, which is something that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant mentioned in his comments last week. And so, the initial impact of this announcement was reasonably meaningful. Mortgage spreads tightened about 15 basis points and headline mortgage rates rallied to below 6 precent for the first time since 2022 on some mortgage measures. James Egan: Alright, so we had a 15 basis point rally almost immediately upon announcement of this program. That took us, I believe, through your bull case for agency mortgages in our 2026 outlook. So, what's next here? Jay Bacow: Well, we have a lot of questions about what is next. There's a lot of things that we're still waiting information on. But we think the initial move has sort of been fully priced in. We don't know the pace of the buying. We don't know if the purchases are going to be outright – like the Fed's purchase programs were. Or purchased and hedging the duration – like historically, the GSEs portfolios have been managed. We don't know how the $200 billion of mortgages will be funded. The way we're kind of thinking about this is if the program is just – and this is a podcast, not a video cast but I'm putting air quotes around just – $200 billion, it is probably priced in and then maybe and then some. However, if the purchases are front loaded or the purchases are increased, or maybe this purchase program indicates possible changes to the composition of the Fed's balance sheet, then there could be further moves in spreads and in mortgage rates.But Jim, what does this mean to the mortgage market writ large? James Egan: Right. So, when we think about what you're talking about, a 15 basis point move in mortgage rates, and we take that into the housing market, the first order implication is on affordability. And this is a move in the right direction, but it is small from a magnitude perspective. You mentioned mortgage rates getting below 6 percent for the first time since 2022. When we think about this in the context of our expectations for 2026, we already had the mortgage rate getting to about 5.75 in the back half of this year. This would take that forecast down to about 5.6 percent. That has a very modest upward implication for our purchase volume forecast, but I want to emphasize the modest piece. We're talking about [$]4.23 million was our original existing home sales forecast. This could take it to [$] 4.25 [million], maybe as high as [$]4.3 [million] with some media effect layered in. But any growth in demand, when we think about the home price side of the equation, we think we'll be met with additional listings. So, it really doesn't change our home price forecast for 2026, which was plus 2 percent. So very modest, slightly upward risk to some of our forecasts. And as we've been saying, when we think about U.S. housing in 2026, the risk to our modest growth forecasts, 3 percent growth in sales, 2 percent growth in home prices. The risk has always been to the upside. That could be because demand responds more to a 5 percent handle in mortgage rates than we're expecting. Or because you get more and more of these programs from the administration. So, on that note, Jay, what else do we think can be done here? Jay Bacow: I mean, there are a lot of potential things that could be done, which could be helpful on the margin or not, depending on how far they are willing to think about the possibilities. Some of the easier changes to make would be changes to the loan level pricing adjustments and the guaranteed fees, and mortgage insurance premiums, which would lower the cost in the roughly 10 to 15 basis points. There are some other changes that could be put through which we think from a legal side which would be much more difficult to make retroactive. That would be either allowing you to take your mortgage with you to the next house, which is what we call portability. Or allowing you to transfer your mortgage to the new home buyer, which is what we call assumability. We think it's extremely difficult to make that retroactive, but that could have some larger impacts, if that were to go through. Now, Jim, speaking of other impacts, mortgages spreads have tightened 15 basis points. What does that do to some of the other sectors that you cover? James Egan: Right. We do think there is a portfolio channel effect here that could be good for risk assets broader than just the agency mortgage space, even though that is clearly the primary impact of that $200 billion buying program. Securitized credit, we think is one of the clear beneficiaries of that tightening, given the relationships it has to agency mortgages. The non-QM mortgage market in particular – one that we're looking at for positive tailwinds as a result of this. Jay Bacow: All right, so we got a big announcement. We got a pretty quick market move after that, and now we're waiting to see what the next steps are. Likely going to have a marginal impact on housing activity, but we got to keep our ears and our eyes open to see what else might come. Jim, always great talking to you. James Egan: Pleasure talking to you too, Jay. And to all of you regular listeners, thank you for adding us to your playlist. Let us know what you think wherever you get this podcast and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today. Jay Bacow: Go smash that subscribe button.*** Disclaimer ***James Egan: It's a shame it's not a video podcast. What a great cardigan.

A healthcare system that can't keep primary care docs for six months isn't just frustrating—it's a policy failure we can fix. We take you inside New Mexico's malpractice debate, where punitive damages and high premiums are pushing physicians to retire, relocate, or avoid risk altogether. We unpack the Albuquerque Journal's call to raise the standard for punitive damages, consider caps and trial bifurcation, and weigh them against proposals that shift costs to taxpayers without changing incentives. Interstate medical compacts can open access, especially through telehealth, but they can't replace local specialists when you need surgery tomorrow.From there, we trace a second fault line: the Clear Horizons energy bill. Electricity demand is set to surge while the measure would constrain key supply, threatening higher utility bills and a direct hit to a state budget funded heavily by oil and gas. With Wall Street walking back climate grandstanding and rediscovering reliability, we ask what a realistic, phased transition should look like for families, schools, and small businesses who can't afford another shock.We then zoom out to the national mood. Mortgage rates are easing and home sales are ticking up, but grocery and meat prices remind us why most incomes still feel behind inflation. Polls show voters may not love anyone's answers, yet they still prioritize price stability and enforcement over rhetoric. That brings us to media narratives and public safety: Minneapolis became a flashpoint over ICE activity, but Memphis shows what happens when local and federal leaders cooperate—crime drops fast. And north of the border, Canada's openness to Chinese state-backed autos raises alarms for North American jobs and supply chains.If you care about keeping your doctor, paying your power bill, and seeing your city get safer, this conversation connects the dots between incentives and outcomes. Subscribe, share with a friend who's wrestling with these issues, and leave a review telling us where you want lawmakers to act first. Your feedback steers future deep dives.Website: https://www.nodoubtaboutitpodcast.com/Twitter: @nodoubtpodcastFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/NoDoubtAboutItPod/Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/markronchettinm/?igshid=NTc4MTIwNjQ2YQ%3D%3D

Today we sit down with Christine Benz, Author, WCICON Speaker, and Director of Mutual Fund Analysis at Morningstar, for a wide-ranging and insightful conversation. We dive into her annual retirement income research, the realities of spending in retirement, and the challenge many retirees face in giving themselves permission to spend. Christine also reflects on the stark gender imbalance in the finance world and highlights the women she believes every investor should be following, whether they invest on their own or work with an advisor. It is a thoughtful, information-rich interview you will not want to miss. Getting Going on Savings Initiative: https://boglecenter.net/gettinggoing/  Best of Jonathan Clements Book: https://www.amazon.com/Best-Jonathan-Clements-Timeless-Financial/dp/0988780348  Laurel Road is committed to serving the financial needs of doctors, including helping you get the home of your dreams. Laurel Road's Physician Mortgage is a home loan exclusively for physicians and dentists featuring up to 100% financing on loans of $1,000,000 or less. These loans have fewer restrictions than conventional mortgages and recognize the lender's trust in medical professionals' creditworthiness and earning potential. For terms and conditions, please visit https://laurelroad.com/wci Disclosures: NOTICE: This is not a commitment to lend or extend credit. Conditions and restrictions may apply. All mortgage products are subject to credit and collateral approval. Mortgage products are available in all 50 U.S. states and Washington, D.C. Hazard insurance and, if applicable, flood insurance are required on collateral property. Actual rates, fees, and terms are based on those offered as of the date of application and are subject to change without notice. 1. 100% financing is only available to interns, residents, fellows, doctors, dentists, clinical professors, researchers, or managing physicians with a current license and a degree of Doctor of Medicine (MD), Doctor of Osteopathic Medicine (DO), Doctor of Podiatric Medicine (DPM), Doctor of Dental Surgery (DDS), or Doctor of Dental Medicine (DMD). Only available when purchasing or refinancing with no cash out on a primary residence and loan amount does not exceed $1,000,000. Retired doctors are not eligible. Additional conditions and restrictions may apply. The White Coat Investor Podcast launched in January 2017, and since then, millions have downloaded it. Join your fellow physicians and other high income professionals and subscribe today! Host, Dr. Jim Dahle, is a practicing emergency physician and founder of The White Coat Investor blog. Like the blog, The White Coat Investor Podcast is dedicated to educating medical students, residents, physicians, dentists, and similar high-income professionals about personal finance and building wealth, so they can ultimately be their own financial advisor-or at least know enough to not get ripped off by a financial advisor. We tackle the hard topics like the best ways to pay off student loans, how to create your own personal financial plan, retirement planning, how to save money, investing in real estate, side hustles, and how everyone can be a millionaire by living WCI principles. Website: https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com  YouTube: https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/youtube  Student Loan Advice: https://studentloanadvice.com  TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thewhitecoatinvestor  Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/thewhitecoatinvestor  Twitter: https://twitter.com/WCInvestor  Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thewhitecoatinvestor  Subreddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/whitecoatinvestor  Online Courses: https://whitecoatinvestor.teachable.com  Newsletter: https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/free-monthly-newsletter  00:00 WCI Podcast #454 02:31 Christine Benz Interview 04:00 The Numbers and Psychology of Retirement Spending 24:15 The State of Retirement Income