Podcasts about China

For the first time in 30 years, the annual U.N. conference on climate change is taking place without top government representation from the United States. China has emerged as the top dog at the summit and is poised to become the world's supplier of green energy technology.David Gelles and Brad Plumer explain the growing showdown between global superpowers over the future of energy.Guest:David Gelles, a reporter on the New York Times climate team who leads The Times's Climate Forward newsletter.Brad Plumer, a New York Times reporter based in Washington, covering technology and policy efforts to address global warming.Background reading: There's a race to power the future. China is pulling away.At a climate summit without the U.S., allies and rivals call for action.Photo: Gilles Sabrie for The New York TimesFor more information on today's episode, visit nytimes.com/thedaily. Transcripts of each episode will be made available by the next workday.  Subscribe today at nytimes.com/podcasts or on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. You can also subscribe via your favorite podcast app here https://www.nytimes.com/activate-access/audio?source=podcatcher. For more podcasts and narrated articles, download The New York Times app at nytimes.com/app.

On Monday's Mark Levin Show, the judges in the James Comey case are obstructing the prosecution by granting rare access to secret grand jury information under Federal Rule 6e, despite no evidence of misconduct during the indictment, effectively trying to dismiss the case before trial. The judges continue lecturing the prosecution on alleged faults which create an awful situation. It looks like the fix is in. Also, the Epstein files contain nothing negative about Trump, despite pushes from figures like Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene, Tucker Carlson, and Steve Bannon. Tucker Carlson will always be a loathsome lowlife giving Nick Fuentes a megaphone, and for his own repulsive bigotry and antisemitism, and nobody can change that. This is not who the American people are or ever will be. And we patriots are not going to surrender our country to these poisonous grifters and hate-mongers. Not now, not ever. But they are actively trying to destroy our movement, promote themselves, and hand the country over to the Marxist-Islamist left and the Democrat Party. Make no mistake about it. Later, no we are not ready for Michelle Obama to be President. She's a radical leftist who keeps trashing our country and talking down to the people. She'd be unable to hold up to scrutiny on substantive issues had she run. She's no Margaret Thatcher, Golda Meir, Indira Gandhi, and on and on. Afterward, there should be some skepticism about the U.S. selling advanced F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia, given the country's unacknowledged role in 9/11 and lack of apology to victims' families or the nation. What do they need F-35s for? Who is threatening Saudia Arabia? Why aren't we selling F-35s to Taiwan? Then, China is intensifying reprisals against Japan following new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's suggestion that Japan could militarily intervene if China attempts to blockade or seize Taiwan, which China claims but has no historic right to. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this episode of John Solomon Reports, we delve into the recent congressional vote to release all records related to the Jeffrey Epstein affair. With a near-unanimous decision from the House, the implications for Democrats are profound as subpoenas are issued to banks and significant figures involved. As the narrative shifts, we explore the ramifications of Epstein's connections and the potential fallout for various political players. Additionally, we discuss the Trump administration's plan to shut down the Education Department, the ongoing redistricting battles, and major legal disputes headed for the Supreme Court. Congressman Nate Moran from Texas shares insights on the critical importance of lithium for America's energy independence and the need for robust policies to counter China's dominance. We discuss the necessary steps that Congress can take to create a more favorable environment for domestic mining and reduce regulatory burdens, as well as the broader implications for the U.S. economy. Next, Congresswoman Harriet Hageman from Wyoming discusses the pressing issues facing the government as it resumes operations. From the unnecessary existence of the Department of Education to the critical need for legislative action on coal production and grizzly bear recovery, Congresswoman Hageman shares her insights on the current political landscape. She also highlights the importance of protecting First Amendment rights and discusses her proposed legislation aimed at holding federal employees accountable for violations. Finally, we tackle the significant developments surrounding the Jeffrey Epstein scandal as the House votes to demand the release of all remaining documents related to the case. Renowned journalist Christine Dolan shares her insights on human trafficking and the impact of the victims' voices in driving legislative change. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

British politicians have been warned by the security services that they face a significant risk of espionage from the Chinese state, after an MI5 alert identified two LinkedIn profiles it says have been operating on behalf of China's Ministry of State Security. The UK Security Minister Dan Jarvis has warned that the government won't tolerate covert attempts by China to interfere in the UK's sovereign affairs.In the Philippines, prosecutors have charged several people in connection with an ongoing corruption scandal linked to inadequate or non-existent flood defences. Also: the global vaccine alliance GAVI says it has prevented nearly one and a half million deaths from cervical cancer through a three-year vaccination campaign in low-income countries. How AI could help speed up research into ways of stopping anti microbial resistance. A human rights group accuses the French oil giant, Total, of complicity in war crimes at one of its gas sites in Mozambique. Cambridge Dictionary names ‘parasocial' as its Word of the Year for 2025 - and should there be a universal scale to measure spice levels?The Global News Podcast brings you the breaking news you need to hear, as it happens. Listen for the latest headlines and current affairs from around the world. Politics, economics, climate, business, technology, health – we cover it all with expert analysis and insight. Get the news that matters, delivered twice a day on weekdays and daily at weekends, plus special bonus episodes reacting to urgent breaking stories. Follow or subscribe now and never miss a moment. Get in touch: globalpodcast@bbc.co.uk

We begin by discussing the renewed effort in Congress to ban states from implementing any regulations of AI or data centers. Also Trump is working with Saudi Arabia to own our AI infrastructure. It is shocking to watch the priorities of Republicans at a time when we could be expending our capital on things we actually believe in. Next we're joined by Tim Estes, 25-year AI founder and CEO, who is working to steer AI toward enhancing the human experience rather than supplanting it. He warns that the current tech companies working on data center buildout are mimicking the worst elements of the China-centralized surveillance state without copying their aversion to addicting a generation of children to what he calls “digital narcotics.” In a riveting interview, Estes lays out two paths for AI that will determine whether we fix the internet that broke a generation of children or whether we engage in digital child sacrifice.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode of China Decode, hosts Alice Han and James Kynge break down how China is quietly building the “Android of AI” while the U.S. is pouring billions into the ultra-premium iPhone equivalent. As American firms chase ever-bigger, pricier models, Chinese competitors are going lean, open-source, and dirt-cheap — and U.S. startups are already switching to them. They unpack why Chinese models are suddenly dominating Hugging Face, how an AI price war could spark a market correction, and whether U.S. export controls are backfiring. Plus, a diplomatic firestorm between China and Japan is raising tough questions about the future balance of power in East Asia. With Tokyo taking an unusually hard line on Taiwan — and Beijing responding with fury — Alice and James examine what's driving the escalation, what it means for U.S. strategy, and how historical grievances still shape the region's security map. Finally, China's coffee wars are heating up — and Starbucks is blinking. After losing ground to aggressive local rivals like Luckin and Cotti, Starbucks is selling off majority control of its China business. They explore why Western brands keep struggling in China's hyper-competitive consumer market — and whether Starbucks can claw back relevance. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

PREVIEW Chinese Central Filtering of Canadian Statistical Assistance. Charles Burton discusses Canada's 1990s statistical assistance to China, noting how central filtering distorted the results. Authorities selectively used data that fit assumptions of success, ignoring negative information or using it only to improve tax extraction. The Canadians felt readily deceived due to China's reluctance to share negative truths. Guest: Charles Burton.

China's Economic Slump: Export Decline, Policy Failures, and Property Market Stagnation Guests: Anne Stevenson-Yang and Gordon Chang Anne Stevenson-Yang and Gordon Chang discussed the unprecedented slump in China's economic activity, noting cooled investment and slowing industrial output, with exports falling 25% to the US, attributing this long-term decline to the government's 2008 decision to pull back economic reforms and the current 15th Five-Year Plan lacking viable solutions or bailouts for hurting localities, while consumption remains dangerously low (around 38% of GDP) and is expected to shrink further as the government prioritizes technological development and factory production, with the property market collapsing as capital investment, land sales, and unit prices decline, forcing people to hold onto decaying apartments and risking stagnation for decades similar to Japan post-1989, a problem largely self-created due to overcapacity, although other countries like Brazil are also restricting Chinese imports.

SHOW 11-17-25 CBS EYE ON THE WORLD WITH JOHN BATCHELOR 1899 UKRAINE THE SHOW BEGINS IN THE DOUBTS ABOUT POTUS... FIRST HOUR 9-915 Pakistan's Military Dominance: Field Marshal Munir's Power and US Relations Guest: Ambassador Husain Haqqani Ambassador Husain Haqqani detailed the institutional dominance of Pakistan's military, noting that Parliament recently granted Field Marshal Asim Munir legal immunity for life and expanded his power by designating him Chief of Defense Forces, giving him control over the entire military, as Munir aims for presidential privileges without directly taking power, backed by a national narrative that Pakistan is perpetually under threat from India, and gained significant political and psychological advantage through two meetings and praise from President Trump, despite no new US aid or weapons, while Trump, who favors strongmen, may also be using this praise to leverage concessions from Indian Prime Minister Modi, as Munir is taking risks by adopting a firmer stance regarding violence on the Northwest frontier with the Taliban, an approach not well received by the Afghans, with Pakistani politicians historically conceding ground to the military to secure a shared portion of power. 915-930 CONTINUED Pakistan's Military Dominance: Field Marshal Munir's Power and US Relations Guest: Ambassador Husain Haqqani Ambassador Husain Haqqani detailed the institutional dominance of Pakistan's military, noting that Parliament recently granted Field Marshal Asim Munir legal immunity for life and expanded his power 930-945 China's Economic Slump: Export Decline, Policy Failures, and Property Market Stagnation Guests: Anne Stevenson-Yang and Gordon Chang Anne Stevenson-Yang and Gordon Chang discussed the unprecedented slump in China's economic activity, noting cooled investment and slowing industrial output, with exports falling 25% to the US, attributing this long-term decline to the government's 2008 decision to pull back economic reforms and the current 15th Five-Year Plan lacking viable solutions or bailouts for hurting localities, while consumption remains dangerously low (around 38% of GDP) and is expected to shrink further as the government prioritizes technological development and factory production, with the property market collapsing as capital investment, land sales, and unit prices decline, forcing people to hold onto decaying apartments and risking stagnation for decades similar to Japan post-1989, a problem largely self-created due to overcapacity, although other countries like Brazil are also restricting Chinese imports. 945-1000 China's Role in Global Drug Epidemics: Meth Precursors and Weaponizing Chemicals. Guests: Kelly Curry and Gordon Chang. Kelly Curry and Gordon Chang detailed China's crucial role in the global drug trade, asserting that China's chemical exports are fueling a "tsunami of meth" across Asia. Chinese manufacturers supply meth precursor chemicals to warlords, notably the Chinese-aligned, US-sanctioned United Wa State Army in Myanmar. This production (Yaba/ice) is believed to have been diverted from China's domestic market in the 1990s. Both guests confirmed this activity is impossible without the explicit knowledge and support of the Central Committee, noting China grants export subsidies, tax rebates, and uses state banks for money laundering associated with the drug trade. China benefits financially and strategically by weakening US-backed allies like Thailand and South Korea who are flooded with the drugs. This structure mirrors the fentanyl crisis in North America, and experts predict increasing co-production and sharing of chemical methods between Asian drug groups and Mexican cartels. SECOND HOUR 10-1015 Syria's Complex Geopolitics: Air Bases, Sanctions, Accountability, and Great Power Mediation Guest: Ahmad Sharawi Ahmad Sharawi discussed the non-transparent situation in Syria, focusing on reports of potential US air bases (Mezzeh and Dumayr), with denials from the Syrian government suggesting they won't possess the bases but might allow US use for counter-ISIS missions or potentially a security agreement requested by Israel for deconfliction, noting a recent US C-130 spotted landing at the Mezzeh air base near Damascus, while during a reported White House visit, Syrian requests included the removal of Caesar sanctions (partially waived by President Trump) and an Israeli withdrawal from the southern border buffer zone, with domestic movement towards accountability for the Suwayda province massacre and government security forces being arrested, as a Russian military delegation visited Damascus and southern Syria, potentially acting as a deconfliction mechanism between Syria and Israeli forces, with Russia's goal appearing to be balancing regional interests while maintaining its bases in western Syria. 1015-1030 CONTINUED Syria's Complex Geopolitics: Air Bases, Sanctions, Accountability, and Great Power Mediation Guest: Ahmad Sharawi Ahmad Sharawi discussed the non-transparent situation in Syria, focusing on reports of potential US air bases (Mezzeh and Dumayr), with denials from the Syrian government... 1030-1045 Venezuela Crisis: Potential Maduro Exit and Shifting Political Tides in Latin America Guests: Ernesto Araújo and Alejandro Peña Esclusa Alejandro Peña Esclusa and Ernesto Araújo discussed the crisis in Venezuela, noting a powerful US fleet gathered nearby, with Maduro fearing military intervention and reportedly wanting to discuss surrender conditions with President Trump, though his exit is complicated by his ally Diosdado Cabello, who heads operations for the Cartel of the Suns and has no path for redemption, while Maduro's potential fall would deliver a severe blow to the organized crime and drug trafficking networks that permeate South America's political structures, with the opposition, led by María Corina Machado, having transition plans, and Brazilian President Lula neutralized from strongly opposing US actions due to ongoing tariff negotiations with Trump, as the conversation highlighted a new conservative political wave in Latin America, with optimism reported in Argentina following elections that strengthened Javier Milei, and in Chile, where conservative José Antonio Kast is strongly positioned, representing a blend of economic freedom, anti-organized crime platforms, and conservative values. 1045-1100 CONTINUED Venezuela Crisis: Potential Maduro Exit and Shifting Political Tides in Latin America Guests: Ernesto Araújo and Alejandro Peña Esclusa Alejandro Peña Esclusa and Ernesto Araújo discussed the crisis in Venezuela, noting a powerful US fleet gathered nearby, with Maduro fearing military intervention and... THIRD HOUR 1100-1115 1/4 Jews Versus Rome: Two Centuries of Rebellion and the Cost of Diaspora Revolts Professor Barry Strauss of Cornell University, Professor Emeritus and Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, discusses the history of Jewish resistance against the Roman Empire as detailed in his book Jews versus Rome. Following the destruction of the Temple and Jerusalem, rebellion continued among Jewish communities scattered across the Roman world. 1115-1130 CONTINUED 2/4 During Emperor Trajan's campaign against the Parthian Empire, a widespread and coordinated "diaspora revolt" erupted in 115–117 AD, beginning in Libya and spreading to Egypt, Cyprus, and Mesopotamia. This was a major challenge, forcing Trajan to divert a legion, as Egypt was the empire's strategic breadbasket. The revolt was spurred by the insulting Jewish tax, the fiscus Judaicus, paid to Jupiter, and the frustrated expectation that the Temple would be rebuilt within 70 years. The Jewish community in Alexandria, possibly the largest Jewish city in the ancient world, was wiped out during the suppression, a disaster for diaspora Judaism. 1130-1145 CONTINUED 3/4 srajan's successor, Hadrian, revered the war against Parthia but recognized the Jews' disloyalty. Starting in 117 AD, Hadrian planned to rebuild Jerusalem as a pagan city named Aelia Capitolina to demonstrate that the Temple would never be restored and to discourage collusion between Jews and Parthians. This provoked the Bar Kokhba Revolt in 132 AD. The leader, Simon Bar Kosa, took the messianic title Bar Kokhba, meaning "Son of the Star," and was accepted as the Messiah by some leading rabbis, including Rabbi Akiva. 1145-1200 CONTINUED The rebels utilized successful asymmetrical warfare, operating from underground tunnel systems and ambushing Roman forces. The conflict was so severe that Hadrian deployed reinforcements from across the empire, including Britain, and the Roman army was badly mauled. The revolt ended bloodily at the stronghold of Betar. As lasting punishment for centuries of trouble and rebellion, the Romans renamed the province from Judea to Syria Palestina. Pockets of resistance continued, notably the Gallus Revolt in 351–352 AD. Guest: Professor Barry Strauss. FOURTH HOUR 12-1215 Iran's Multi-Faceted Crises: Water Scarcity, Pollution, and Transnational Repression Guest: Jonathan Sayah Jonathan Sayah discussed the multi-faceted crises plaguing Iran, reflecting poor management and ecological decline, with Tehran overwhelmed by severe water scarcity as dams dry up and crippling air pollution with CO2 levels 10 times the WHO standard, while the water crisis is worsened by the regime, especially IRGC-affiliated contractors, who prioritize their support base through unregulated mega-projects, leading to rivers and lakes drying up, a deliberate deprivation of clean water that constitutes a human rights violation, as environmental disasters have driven widespread internal migration into Tehran, taxing infrastructure and leading to issues like land subsidence, with the population considered "prime for unrest," while separately, Iran continues its policy of transnational repression, highlighted by the recent foiled plot to assassinate Israel's ambassador in Mexico, as Iran targets both Israeli/American officials and relies on criminal networks to repress Iranian dissidents abroad, while consistently holding American dual citizens hostage as political leverage. 1215-1230 CONTINUED 1230-1245 Ukraine Conflict: French Arms Deal, Sabotage, and the Perilous Battle for Pokrovsk. Guest: John Hardy. John Hardy reported that Ukraine signed a letter of intent with France to obtain 100 Rafale warplanes over 10 years, along with air defense systems. While this partnership is encouraging, Hardy expressed concern that Ukraine is excessively over-diversifying its future air fleet (including F-16, Grippen, Mirage, and Rafale) which complicates long-term sustainment and maintenance. Simultaneously, alarming reports surfaced that sabotage was blamed for an explosion on a major railway line in Poland used to supply Ukraine, fitting a pattern of suspected Russian covert operations against European infrastructure. On the battlefield, fighting continues in Pokrovsk (Picro). Hardy warned that if Ukrainian forces prioritize a politically motivated hold, they risk the encirclement and destruction of troops in nearby areas. Poor weather, such as fog, plays a significant role in the conflict, as Russians often time assaults during these conditions to impede Ukrainian aerial reconnaissance and FPV drones 1245-100 AM raq Elections and Yemen's Houthi Crackdown Guest: Bridget Toomey Bridget Toomey discussed recent developments in Iraq and Yemen, noting that Iraqi parliamentary elections saw a higher-than-expected 56% voter turnout, with preliminary results suggesting Shiite parties close to Tehran performed well and might secure enough seats to form the next government, despite internal infighting and votes remaining largely sectarian, while Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani received credit for stability and his party performed strongly, though many Iraqis doubt the elections affect real change, believing critical decisions are made via elite backroom deals, and turning to Yemen, the Houthis announced the arrest of a purported Saudi-American-Israeli spy ring, a paranoid crackdown following Israel's successful targeting of Houthi government and military leaders in August, with arrests including 59 UN workers and prosecutors requesting the death sentence for 21, aiming to intimidate domestic dissent and signal resolve to Western and regional adversaries, especially in sensitive Houthi locations in Sana'a.

China's Role in Global Drug Epidemics: Meth Precursors and Weaponizing Chemicals. Guests: Kelly Currie and Gordon Chang. Kelly Curry and Gordon Chang detailed China's crucial role in the global drug trade, asserting that China's chemical exports are fueling a "tsunami of meth" across Asia. Chinese manufacturers supply meth precursor chemicals to warlords, notably the Chinese-aligned, US-sanctioned United Wa State Army in Myanmar. This production (Yaba/ice) is believed to have been diverted from China's domestic market in the 1990s. Both guests confirmed this activity is impossible without the explicit knowledge and support of the Central Committee, noting China grants export subsidies, tax rebates, and uses state banks for money laundering associated with the drug trade. China benefits financially and strategically by weakening US-backed allies like Thailand and South Korea who are flooded with the drugs. This structure mirrors the fentanyl crisis in North America, and experts predict increasing co-production and sharing of chemical methods between Asian drug groups and Mexican cartels. 1922 burma

Chinese stocks are back in the headlines, and we're putting them on trial. Motley Fool Money flips the script as Jason Hall steps into the host chair to referee a fast-paced bull/bear debate between longtime China investor Emily Flippen and resident skeptic Toby Bordelon. On today's show, Emily, Jason, and Toby: - Go head-to-head on PDD Holdings - Debate whether Baidu can self-drive its future - Do a speed round between Weibo and iQiYi - deep value or value traps? Companies discussed: BIDU, PDD, WB, IQ Host: Emily Flippen, Jason Hall, Toby Bordelon Producer: Anand Chokkavelu Engineer: Dan Boyd Disclosure: Advertisements are sponsored content and provided for informational purposes only. The Motley Fool and its affiliates (collectively, “TMF”) do not endorse, recommend, or verify the accuracy or completeness of the statements made within advertisements. TMF is not involved in the offer, sale, or solicitation of any securities advertised herein and makes no representations regarding the suitability, or risks associated with any investment opportunity presented. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult with legal, tax, and financial advisors before making any investment decisions. TMF assumes no responsibility for any losses or damages arising from this advertisement. We're committed to transparency: All personal opinions in advertisements from Fools are their own. The product advertised in this episode was loaned to TMF and was returned after a test period or the product advertised in this episode was purchased by TMF. Advertiser has paid for the sponsorship of this episode. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠megaphone.fm/adchoices Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode of The PDB Afternoon Bulletin: Russia's oil sector is taking heavy hits on two fronts. Ukrainian drones are striking deep inside the country, while new U.S. sanctions are cutting off key buyers in India and China. We'll explain why this dual pressure is becoming a serious problem for Moscow's war economy. Germany is preparing to lift its freeze on arms exports to Israel, saying the Gaza ceasefire has stabilized enough to reverse restrictions imposed during the height of the conflict. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. YouTube: youtube.com/@presidentsdailybrief Rugiet: Ready to give Rugiet a try? Get 15% off your first order by going to http://rugiet.com/PDB and using code PDB. Rugiet prescriptions are compounded medications, available only if prescribed following an online consultation with a licensed clinician. Compounded drugs can be prescribed by federal law, but are not FDA-approved and have not been reviewed by the FDA for safety, effectiveness, or manufacturing. Individual results may vary. Full safety information available at https://Rugiet.com  Lean: Visit https://BrickhouseSale.comfor 30% off StopBox: Not only do you get 10% Off your entire order when you use code PDB10 at https://stopboxusa.com/PDB10, but they are also giving you Buy One Get One Free for their StopBox Pro. #stopboxpod Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

With Islam Makhachev dethroning Jack Della Maddalena on a historic night stamped by show-stealing wins from rising welterweight contenders, Jim and Matt have plenty to unpack on today's UFC 322 recap show. The guys break down the championship shakeup at 170, Valentina Shevchenko's flawless title defense, and all the biggest moments from Saturday's card.They're then joined by Johnny Walker, who hops on the show to talk fatherhood, his recent knockout win in China, and where he fits in the suddenly chaotic light heavyweight picture.After Johnny's interview wraps, Jim and Matt take a deep dive into Makhachev's future at welterweight — debating where Ilia Topuria stands among contenders vying for the first crack at the newest double champion's 170-pound UFC crown.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Trump designates Venezuela's Maduro regime a foreign terrorist organization, escalating tensions as Iran and China back Caracas with drones and weapons. Patrick Bet-David's panel breaks down Rubio's role, Venezuela's oil stakes, and fears of a proxy war in America's backyard.

This month marks ten full years of my bimonthly book-recommendations project—a decade of weird little paragraphs about the books that grab my scattered attention. Whether you've been here since the beginning or signed up five minutes ago, thank you. I'm still baffled anyone reads these things, but I'm grateful all the same. To mark the occasion, I recorded a late-night solo episode from The Shed, diving deeper into each of my September & October picks: why I chose them, what stayed with me, and the sometimes-unexpected lessons I gleaned from each of them. Or you could just describe it as a guy sitting in his garden shed talking to himself. Your choice. You can read all of the recommendations here, or, if you're clamoring to receive more emails, you can sign up for the list here. Thanks for listening, thanks for reading, and here's to 10 more great years of great books. – September & October 2025 Book Recommendations Ed's Bimonthly Book Recommendations Sign up for the list – BOOKS DISCUSSED: 00:00 — Intro + 10 years of book-rec emails 05:45 — Burn by Peter Heller 11:00 — Jaber Crow by Wendell Berry (related rec) 11:45 — The Way Out by Devon O'Neil 17:10 — Simple Fly Fishing by Yvon Chouinard 21:50 — Pheasant Tail Simplicity by Yvon Chouinard 25:40 — Little Woodchucks by Nick Offerman 29:20 — Dirtbag Billionaire by David Gelles 35:00 — Shoe Dog by Phil Knight (related rec) 35:55 — Apple in China by Patrick McGee 40:45 — When McKinsey Comes to Town (related rec) 42:10 — The Devil's Hand by Jack Carr 46:15 — Closing thoughts --- ABOUT MOUNTAIN & PRAIRIE: Mountain & Prairie - All Episodes Mountain & Prairie Shop Mountain & Prairie on Instagram Upcoming Events About Ed Roberson Support Mountain & Prairie Leave a Review on Apple Podcasts

If AI destroys all human purpose, what will give our lives meaning when machines can do everything better than us? Josh Trent welcomes Tom Bilyeu to the Wellness + Wisdom Podcast, episode 782, to uncover why AI is forcing humanity to confront who we really are, what gives life meaning when machines outpace us, and how reclaiming our biological and spiritual essence may be the only path forward.

China has been on a giant global shopping spree. Since 2000, Chinese state banks have fuelled investments and acquisitions at a surprisingly rate - some four times what was previously thought. Brand new data, shared exclusively with the BBC, reveals that many of Beijing's state-backed spending has targeted rich countries. Such deals are strictly legal, though not always easy to trace. Observers in the United States, Europe and elsewhere are alarmed at the potential for Beijing to dominate key technologies and turbo charge its technological might. Celia Hatton investigates the sometimes murky ways in which Chinese state money can be traced to sensitive industrial sectors. But she also discovers that shutting out Chinese influence is not easy or desirable.

Cloudflare suffers a major outage. Google issues an emergency Chrome update. Logitech discloses a data breach. CISA plans a major hiring push. The House renews the State and Local Cybersecurity Grant Program. The GAO warns military personnel are oversharing online. Tech groups urge governments worldwide to reject proposals that weaken or bypass encryption. Australian authorities blame outdated software for the death of a telecom customer. An alleged Void Blizzard hacker faces extradition to the US. Our guest is Kevin Kennedy from ManTech discussing the future battlefield and the importance of integrating non-kinetic effects. AI meets the IRS. What could possibly go wrong? Remember to leave us a 5-star rating and review in your favorite podcast app. Miss an episode? Sign-up for our daily intelligence roundup, Daily Briefing, and you'll never miss a beat. And be sure to follow CyberWire Daily on LinkedIn. CyberWire Guest On our Industry Voices segment, we are joined by ⁠Kevin Kennedy⁠ from ⁠ManTech⁠ discussing the future battlefield and the importance of integrating non-kinetic effects. You can hear Kevin's full conversation here. Selected Reading Cloudflare outage causes error messages across the internet (The Guardian) Google releases emergency Chrome update to patch actively exploited vulnerability (Beyond Machines) Logitech discloses data breach after Clop claims (The Record) CISA, eyeing China, plans hiring spree to rebuild its depleted ranks (Cybersecurity Dive) Full renewal of state and local cyber grants program passes in House (The Record) Pentagon and soldiers let too many secrets slip on socials (The Register) Dozens of groups call for governments to protect encryption (CyberScoop) Australia's TPG Telecom links customer's death to outdated Samsung phone (Reuters) Alleged Void Blizzard hacker arrested in Thailand (SC Media) Intuit signs $100M+ deal with OpenAI to bring its apps to ChatGPT (TechCrunch) Share your feedback. What do you think about CyberWire Daily? Please take a few minutes to share your thoughts with us by completing our brief listener survey. Thank you for helping us continue to improve our show. Want to hear your company in the show? N2K CyberWire helps you reach the industry's most influential leaders and operators, while building visibility, authority, and connectivity across the cybersecurity community. Learn more at sponsor.thecyberwire.com. The CyberWire is a production of N2K Networks, your source for strategic workforce intelligence. © N2K Networks, Inc. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

For decades, California-based engineer Chi Mak quietly stole secrets on war-fighting technologies. He and his family members shared the intelligence with spies in China, giving Beijing astounding insights they hadn't earned. Former FBI Special Agent James Gaylord takes us back to the elaborate investigation in 2004. Evidence gathered by his squad, call sign “SARA-4,” broke a string of FBI failures in the courtroom. Chi went to prison, but new problems arose. Jim's account is documented in his book, Chasing Chi. Subscribe to Sasha's Substack, HUMINT, to get more intelligence stories: https://sashaingber.substack.com/ And if you have feedback or want to hear about a particular topic,  you can reach us by E-mail at SpyCast@Spymuseum.org,  This show is brought to you from Goat Rodeo, Airwave, and the International Spy Museum in Washington, DC. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A looming House vote on the Epstein files launches a political knife fight on the Right, a bipartisan cohort of Congressmen call out Chinese tech on US military bases, and the Trump Administration brings its immigration blitz to North Carolina. Get the facts first with Morning Wire. - - - Wake up with new Morning Wire merch: https://bit.ly/4lIubt3 - - - Today's Sponsors: Goldbelly - Go to https://goldbelly.com and get 20% off your first order with promo code WIRE. Lean - Get 30% off at https://Brickhousesale.com - - - Privacy Policy: https://www.dailywire.com/privacy morning wire,morning wire podcast,the morning wire podcast,Georgia Howe,John Bickley,daily wire podcast,podcast,news podcast Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this episode, we are joined by Congressman Brian Babin from Texas, who shares his insights on the recent controversies surrounding Ghislaine Maxwell's leaked emails and the implications for the Democratic Party. We discuss the potential fallout from the release of the Epstein files and how it may impact the ongoing political climate. Congressman Babbitt also addresses concerns about corruption and the misuse of power within the justice system, highlighting the need for transparency and accountability. Next, we tackle the recent COP30 climate conference and the hypocrisy surrounding climate change initiatives. Join John and his guest, Michael Chamberlain from Protect the Public Trust, as they dissect the contradictions of climate policies, the impact of wealth redistribution, and the alarming emissions from countries like China. They also discuss the importance of accountability in environmental commitments and ongoing issues in women's sports related to Title IX violations. Finally, we engage with Michigan State Senator Aric Nesbitt as he shares insights on his campaign for governor and the pressing issues surrounding the upcoming elections in 2026. We delve into the challenges of election integrity, the controversial actions of the current Secretary of State, and the need for federal oversight. Senator Nesbitt also discusses his proposed 'Citizens Only Voting' initiative aimed at ensuring that only eligible voters participate in elections. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

On this episode of “The Liz Wheeler Show,” Liz reacts to the newly released Epstein emails and reveals yet another lie from the Democrats. She also explains how releasing the emails has actually exonerated Donald Trump. SPONSORS: ALL FAMILY PHARMACY: Because you're part of this movement, use code LIZ10 at checkout for an exclusive discount. Check out https://allfamilypharmacy.com/LIZ, code: LIZ10. KINDRED HARVEST: Stop trusting China with your family's health. Choose American quality. Choose Kindred Harvest. Cultivating Goodness Daily. Go to http://www.KindredHarvest.co and use code LIZ for 20% off. -- Get the full audio show on all major podcast platforms: Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-liz-wheeler-show/id1567701295 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4LhlHfocr5gMnLj4l573iI iHeart: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/269-the-liz-wheeler-show-82737301/ Subscribe to The Liz Wheeler Show newsletter: https://lizwheeler.com/email Get VIP access to The Liz Wheeler Show on Locals: https://lizwheeler.locals.com/. Stay in touch with Liz on social media: YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@lizwheeler Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/OfficialLizWheeler Twitter: https://twitter.com/Liz_Wheeler Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/OfficialLizWheeler Rumble: https://rumble.com/LizWheeler Website: https://lizwheeler.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Andy Mills, host of The Last Invention podcast, joins Dispatch CTO Steve Hayes to discuss the artificial intelligence revolution, the competing visions of utopia among the tech bros, and where AI will take us next. The Agenda:—The great conspiracy theory of our time—Understanding AI, AGI, and ASI—Alan Turing and the birth of AI—The Cold War's influence on AI—Race against China—Where is the bipartisan policy? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Xi Zhongxun's Radical Youth and Peasant Roots. Joseph Turigian introduces Xi Zhongxun's biography, emphasizing the Confucian view that a father explains the son. Xi Zhongxun was born into a poor peasant family in Shaanxi province in 1913, an area marked by violence and poverty. At age 15, he poisoned a school administrator on orders from the local Communist Party, leading to his imprisonment, where he formally joined the Chinese Communist Party in 1928, an early mark of prestige. Xi was motivated by radicalism and a belief that only force could save China. Guest: Joseph Turigian. 1906

Londinium 91 AD: The Debate Over Venezuela. Gaius and Germanicus of the Friends Mystery Debating Society discuss at a cold wine bar by the choppy Thames the potential decision by emperor Trump to invade Venezuela, noting the presence of a sizable, powerful military force gathered deliberately off its shores. Germanicus argues that American engagement in the Caribbean is a deep-rooted tradition dating back to the Monroe Doctrine, with the current military buildup serving as a symbolic initiative signaling to powers like China and Russia that the U.S. is reasserting influence in its accepted sphere. However, he cautions there are huge risks because the U.S. military's connection to strategic realities has declined massively, with capabilities depleted partly due to the war in Ukraine. U.S. history of warfare since Korea is marked by poor net assessment, where planners privilege desires over reality. Maduro has reportedly offered tribute of 300 million barrels of oil, suggesting the conflict is currently an aggressively conducted negotiation dependent heavily on Venezuelan armed forces loyalty. The emperor faces pressure to achieve a consolation prize if he chooses not to invade to avoid looking weak, leaving the outcome undecided. 80 BCE. SULLA

Legacy, Loyalty, and the Nationalist Leader. Joseph Turigian concludes with Xi Zhongxun's death in 2002 after suffering cancer, noting his epitaph speaks of a life of struggle and happiness. Xi Jinping wrote to his father, listing qualities he wished to emulate: never persecuting people and never losing faith in the cause. The suffering endured often rededicated communists to the party. Xi Jinping once told Prime Minister Abe that if he were American, he would join the Republicans or Democrats, not the Communist Party. This comment suggested to Abe that Xi Jinping is primarily a nationalist focused on power and using communism for China's rejuvenation, driven by a deep fear of chaos. Guest: Joseph Turigian. 1908 zpeking

PREVIEW Kelly Curry discusses the chain of poison where China is the driver and controller of dangerous drug production out of Myanmar. China supplies precursors but demands the resulting methamphetamines be diverted away from China, flooding markets across Asia and reaching North and South America. China continues to abet this trade because the chemical makers are a source of revenue. Future co-production and transmission of methods between Chinese-backed drug groups and Mexican cartels is anticipated. Guest: Kelly Curry. 1922

PREVIEW Anne Stevenson-Yang focuses on the decline of China's economic miracle, which was fueled by borrowing and falsehoods and is potentially headed toward japanification or worse. The idea that China was continuously rising and overtaking the United States is now largely disregarded. Although some asset investors hold hope that Asia, specifically China, will provide yield, few believe the downturn is temporary. Guest: Anne Stevenson-Yang. 1918 PEKING

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief: Iran confirms the seizure of a petrochemical tanker in the Gulf — a major show of force by the Islamic Republic in one of the world's most sensitive waterways. A new report suggests the U.S. may press ahead on Gaza reconstruction even if Hamas keeps its weapons, as stabilization talks stall. China sends Coast Guard ships through Japan-administered islands, escalating an already sharp dispute with Tokyo. And in today's Back of the Brief — fresh developments in the energy corruption scandal rocking Kyiv, alongside new steps President Zelenskyy says he's taking to clean house. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President's Daily Brief by visiting https://PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. YouTube: youtube.com/@presidentsdailybrief Beam: Visit https://shopbeam.com/MIKEand use code MIKE to get our exclusive discount of up to 50% off. TriTails Premium Beef: Feed your legacy. Visit https://trybeef.com/pdb  American Financing: Call American Financing today to find out how customers are saving an avg of $800/mo. NMLS 182334, https://nmlsconsumeraccess.org - APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1881 for details about credit costs and terms. Visit https://www.AmericanFinancing.net/PDB Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

- Brighteon Books and Photonic Computing (0:00) - Demonstration of the Book Engine (3:57) - Choosing the Tone and Research Sources (7:02) - The 20 Delusions Shaping U.S. Geopolitics (8:56) - Corporate Bankruptcies and Weight Loss Injections (20:25) - Photonic Quantum Chips and China's Leadership (24:32) - The Photonic Singularity and Future Implications (40:35) - The 20 Delusions of the United States (42:51) - The Role of Sanctions and Public Opinion (47:21) - The Future of the U.S. and Global Perception (56:42) - The Jesus Way Podcast and Christian Reform (1:08:38) - Second Peter and the Authenticity of the Bible (1:16:54) - Personal Testimony and Spiritual Philosophy (1:23:55) - Upcoming Virtual Summit on Christ Consciousness (1:25:57) - Decentralization and Personal Responsibility in Faith (1:28:52) - The Role of Animal Sacrifice in Religious Corruption (1:31:21) - The Essenes and the Rejection of Temple Cult Practices (1:39:30) - The Connection Between Nazarene Christianity and Islam (1:42:33) - The Power of Human Words and Thoughts (1:48:20) - The Misunderstanding of Righteousness in Christianity (1:52:42) - Final Thoughts and Gratitude (1:55:06) For more updates, visit: http://www.brighteon.com/channel/hrreport  NaturalNews videos would not be possible without you, as always we remain passionately dedicated to our mission of educating people all over the world on the subject of natural healing remedies and personal liberty (food freedom, medical freedom, the freedom of speech, etc.). Together, we're helping create a better world, with more honest food labeling, reduced chemical contamination, the avoidance of toxic heavy metals and vastly increased scientific transparency. ▶️ Every dollar you spend at the Health Ranger Store goes toward helping us achieve important science and content goals for humanity: https://www.healthrangerstore.com/ ▶️ Sign Up For Our Newsletter: https://www.naturalnews.com/Readerregistration.html ▶️ Brighteon: https://www.brighteon.com/channels/hrreport ▶️ Join Our Social Network: https://brighteon.social/@HealthRanger ▶️ Check In Stock Products at: https://PrepWithMike.com

In Episode 449 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Chase Taylor, head of research at Bulwark Capital Management and founder of Pinecone Macro Research about investment opportunities around the buildout of the new "electric stack" and the AI CapEx Boom that relies on them. Chase and Demetri spend the first hour of this episode exploring his methodology, how he extracts signals from noise, and why a multidisciplinary approach to investing is especially important during periods of disruptive sociopolitical and technological change like the kind we are experiencing today. They then apply these ideas to two important technological trends underway in the global economy: (1) the transformation of the so-called "electric stack" or electro-industrial stack and (2) the AI CapEx Boom that relies on it. They begin with a deep-dive exploration of the dramatic cost declines happening across the entire electric stack, beginning with the addition of new sources of energy, advancements in battery technology for storage, the use of magnets and motors that turn electricity into mechanical motion, power electronics that shape it into the precise force needed by today's technologies, and the embedded compute that orchestrates and decides how and when to put that force into action. They discuss the sources of China's dominance in this industry, the horizontal complementarities in its manufacturing ecosystems, the advantages of vertical integration, and what America and Europe need to do in order to remain competitive in this new industrial ecosystem. The second hour is devoted to exploring the implications for investors of the current AI CapEx boom, how the USD might behave in a growth slowdown scenario post-Liberation Day, and what the Trump administration's military and covert action threats against Maduro's regime in Venezuela can tell us about his foreign policy and whether we are returning to a more colonial phase of domination by the American empire over the Western hemisphere. Subscribe to our premium content—including our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports—by visiting HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you'd like to join the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community—with benefits like Q&A calls with guests, exclusive research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners—you can also sign up on our subscriber page at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you enjoyed today's episode of Hidden Forces, please support the show by: Subscribing on Apple Podcasts, YouTube, Spotify, Stitcher, SoundCloud, CastBox, or via our RSS Feed Writing us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Joining our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe and support the podcast at https://hiddenforces.io. Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 11/10/2025

Donate (no account necessary) | Subscribe (account required) Join Bryan Dean Wright, former CIA Operations Officer, as he dives into today's top stories shaping America and the world. In this Monday Headline Brief of The Wright Report, Bryan covers the White House's growing anxiety over the economy, the nationwide crackdown on illegal migrant truck drivers, new DHS surges into sanctuary cities, the rise of openly socialist leadership on the West Coast, and escalating tensions with China in the Pacific. White House Softens Tariffs as Prices Rise: President Trump acknowledged that tariffs may be affecting consumers and announced lower rates on coffee, beef, bananas, and other staples. Prices have soared due to weather, crop disease, and global demand rather than tariffs alone. Bryan explains that the cuts signal the administration's concern that working families are still struggling and that midterm voters may blame the GOP if the economy does not improve soon. Families Fear the Cost of Children: A new American Family Survey found that seventy percent of Americans believe raising kids has become too expensive. Bryan warns that this trend threatens the nation's future and highlights the connection between economic strain and family planning decisions. Crackdown on Unsafe Migrant Truck Drivers: The White House pressured California to revoke seventeen thousand driver's licenses issued to migrants who often cannot read English or safely operate heavy trucks. Some judges in Washington blocked the rule on procedural grounds, creating legal limbo. Bryan notes that until courts rule, untrained foreign drivers will remain on American highways. DHS Surge Operations Expand: Federal officers have flooded Charlotte, North Carolina, where one in five residents is foreign born. The move mirrors earlier crackdowns in Chicago, Portland, Los Angeles, and Washington, where crime dropped after DHS deployments. Bryan says New Orleans is next. Catholic Bishops Clash with the White House: The U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops accused the administration of racism and fearmongering. Border czar Tom Homan responded that securing the border saves lives and that the Church should focus on its own scandals. Socialists Rise in Seattle and Los Angeles: Seattle elected an openly socialist mayor who supports abolishing the police under a communist economic system. In Los Angeles, another socialist candidate is challenging Mayor Karen Bass. Bryan connects these victories to a wider ideological battle inside the Democratic Party, where figures like Obama and Clinton now embrace democratic socialism while voices like Bill Maher warn against it. Democrats Plan Supreme Court Expansion: Longtime strategist James Carville confirmed that the party intends to expand the Supreme Court to thirteen justices once Democrats regain the presidency and Congress. He expects the party to remove the filibuster for that purpose, declaring the fight against Trump a national emergency. GOP Infighting Grows: Trump attacked Representatives Marjorie Taylor Greene and Thomas Massie over comments about Epstein files and personal issues. Bryan urges conservatives to stop the internal battles as socialist movements gain ground nationwide. China Leverages Rare Earths and Military Power: Beijing is delaying rare earth shipments and failed to buy U.S. soybeans despite promises. A shortage of yttrium is emerging, although a U.S. company in Indiana will begin refining it next month. Meanwhile, China sent Coast Guard ships into Japanese waters and unveiled a new aircraft carrier, signaling rising tensions in the Pacific. Trump's Narco-Terror Operation Continues: Another drug boat was destroyed in the Pacific under Operation Southern Spear. Critics in the U.K. claim the strikes violate international law, though the White House says cartels qualify as narco-terrorists and legitimate targets. Britain's Leader Shifts Right on Immigration: Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced sweeping new restrictions, ending cash allowances for asylum seekers, requiring work, and imposing twenty-year waits for permanent residency. Bryan notes the political pressure building across Europe as voters demand tougher borders. Saudi Crown Prince to Visit Washington: The White House may sell F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia, though U.S. intelligence fears technology theft and regional imbalance with Israel. Economic deals may also emerge as Riyadh seeks to follow through on earlier promises. Good News from Southeast Asia: Trump brokered a fresh ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia after border clashes. Cambodia is moving closer to the United States, granting new access to a key naval base and pushing out Chinese crime networks.   "And you shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you free." - John 8:32     Keywords: Trump tariff cuts grocery prices, American Family Survey cost of children, migrant truck drivers CDL revocation, DHS Charlotte surge, Tom Homan Catholic bishops border, Seattle socialist mayor police abolition, Los Angeles socialist candidate Rae Huang, James Carville Supreme Court expansion, GOP infighting Epstein files, China rare earth yttrium shortage, Senkaku Islands China Coast Guard, Operation Southern Spear drug boats, UK asylum overhaul Starmer, Saudi Arabia F-35 visit, Cambodia Thailand ceasefire

In the first of a two-part episode presenting our 2026 outlooks, Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang has Chief Global Economist Seth Carpenter explain his thoughts on how economies around the world are expected to perform and how central banks may respond.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Serena Tang: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist. Seth Carpenter: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist. Serena Tang: So today and tomorrow, a two-part conversation on Morgan Stanley's year ahead outlook. Today, we'll focus on the all-important macroeconomic backdrop. And tomorrow, we'll be back with our views on investing across asset classes and markets. Serena Tang: It's Monday, November 17th at 10am in New York. So, Seth, 2025 has been a year of transition. Global growth slowed under the weight of tariffs and policy uncertainty. Yet resilience in consumer spending and AI driven investments kept recession fears at bay. Your team has published its economic outlook for 2026. So, what's your view on global growth for the year ahead? Seth Carpenter: We really think next year is going to be the global economy slowing down a little bit more just like it did this year, settling into a slower growth rate. But at the same time, we think inflation is going to keep drifting down in most of the world. Now that anodyne view, though, masks some heterogeneity around the world; and importantly, some real uncertainty about different ways things could possibly go. Here in the U.S., we think there is more slowing to come in the near term, especially the fourth quarter of this year and the beginning of next year. But once the economy works its way through the tariffs, maybe some of the lagged effects of monetary policy, we'll start to see things pick up a bit in the second half of the year. China's a different story. We see the really tepid growth there pushed down by the deflationary spiral they've been in. We think that continues for next year, and so they're probably not quite going to get to their 5 percent growth target. And in Europe, there's this push and pull of fiscal policy across the continent. There's a central bank that thinks they've achieved their job in terms of inflation, but overall, we think growth there is, kind of, unremarkable, a little bit over 1 percent. Not bad, but nothing to write home about at all. So that's where we think things are going in general. But I have to say next year, may well be a year for surprises. Serena Tang: Right. So where do you see the biggest drivers of global growth in 2026, and what are some of the key downside risks? Seth Carpenter: That's a great question. I really do think that the U.S. is going to be a real key driver of the story here. And in fact – and maybe we'll talk about this later – if we're wrong, there's some upside scenarios, there's some downside scenarios. But most of them around the world are going to come from the U.S. Two things are going on right now in the U.S. We've had strong spending data. We've also had very, very weak employment data. That usually doesn't last for very long. And so that's why we think in the near term there's some slowdown in the U.S. and then over time things recover. We could be wrong in either direction. And so, if we're wrong and the labor market sending the real signal, then the downside risk to the U.S. economy – and by extension the global economy – really is a recession in the U.S. Now, given the starting point, given how low unemployment is, given the spending businesses are doing for AI, if we did get that recession, it would be mild. On the other hand, like I said, spending is strong. Business spending, especially CapEx for AI; household spending, especially at the top end of the income distribution where wealth is rising from stocks, where the liability side of the balance sheet is insulated with fixed rate mortgages. That spending could just stay strong, and we might see this upside surprise where the spending really dominates the scene. And again, that would spill over for the rest of the world. What I don't see is a lot of reason to suspect that you're going to get a big breakout next year to the upside or the downside from either Europe or China, relative to our baseline scenarios. It could happen, but I really think most of the story is going to be driven in the U.S. Serena Tang: So, Seth, markets have been focused on the Fed, as it should. What is the likely path in 2026 and how are you thinking about central bank policy in general in other regions? Seth Carpenter: Absolutely. The Fed is always of central importance to most people in markets. Our view – and the market's view, I have to say, has been evolving here. Our view is that the Fed's actually got a few more rate cuts to get through, and that by the time we get to the middle of next year, the middle of 2026, they're going to have their policy rate down just a little bit above 3 percent. So roughly where the committee thinks neutral is. Why do we think that? I think the slowing in the labor market that we talked about before, we think there's something kind of durable there. And now that the government shutdown has ended and we're going to start to get regular data prints again, we think the data are going to show that job creation has been below 50,000 per month on average, and maybe even a few of them are going to get to be negative over the next several months. In that situation, we think the Fed's going to get more inclination to guard against further deterioration in the labor market by keeping cutting rates and making sure that the central bank is not putting any restraint on the economy. That's similar, I would say, to a lot of other developed markets' central banks. But the tension for the ECB, for example, is that President Lagarde has said she thinks; she thinks the disinflationary process is over. She thinks sitting at 2 percent for the policy rate, which the ECB thinks of as neutral, then that's the right place for them to be. Our take though is that the data are going to push them in a different direction. We think there is clearly growth in Europe, but we think it's tepid. And as a result, the disinflationary process has really still got some more room to run and that inflation will undershoot their 2 percent target, and as a result, the ECB is probably going to cut again. And in our view, down to about 1.5 percent. Big difference is in Japan. Japan is the developed market central bank that's hiking. Now, when does that happen? Our best guess is next month in December at the policy meeting. We've seen this shift towards reflation. It hasn't been smooth, hasn't been perfectly linear. But the BoJ looks like they're set to raise rates again in December. But the path for inflation is going to be a bit rocky, and so, they're probably on hold for most of 2026. But we do think eventually, maybe not till 2027, they get back to hiking again – so that Governor Ueda can get the policy rate back close to neutral before he steps down. Serena Tang: So, one of the main investor debates is on AI. Whether it's CapEx, productivity, the future of work. How is that factoring into your team's view on growth and inflation for the next year? Seth Carpenter: Yeah, I mean that is absolutely a key question that we get all the time from investors around the world. When I think about AI and how it's affecting the economy, I think about the demand side of the economy, and that's where you think about this CapEx spending – building data centers, buying semiconductors, that sort of thing. That's demand in the economy. It's using up current resources in the economy, and it's got to be somewhat inflationary. It's part of what has kept the U.S. economy buoyant and resilient this year – is that CapEx spending. Now you also mentioned productivity, and for me, that's on the supply side of the economy. That's after the technology is in place. After firms have started to adopt the technology, they're able to produce either the same amount with fewer workers, or they're able to produce more with the same amount of workers. Either way, that's what productivity means, and it's on the supply side. It can mean faster growth and less inflation. I think where we are for 2026, and it's important that we focus it on the near term, is the demand side is much more important than the supply side. So, we think growth continues. It's supported by this business investment spending. But we still think inflation ends 2026, notably above the Fed's inflation target. And it's going to make five, five and a half years that we've been above target. Productivity should kick in. And we've written down something close to a quarter percentage point of extra productivity growth for 2026, but not enough to really be super disinflationary. We think that builds over time, probably takes a couple of years. And for example, if we think about some of the announcements about these data centers that are being built, where they're really going to unleash the potential of AI, those aren't going to be completed for a couple of years anyway. So, I think for now, AI is dominating the demand side of the economy. Over the next few years, it's going to be a real boost to the supply side of the economy. Serena Tang: So that makes a lot of sense to me, Seth. But can you put those into numbers? Seth Carpenter: Sure, Serena totally. In numbers, that's about 3 percent growth. A little bit more than that for global GDP growth on like a Q4-over-Q4 basis. But for the U.S. in particular, we've got about 1.75 percent. So that's not appreciably different from what we're looking for this year in 2025. But the number really, kind of, masks the evolution over time. We think the front part of the year is going to be much weaker. And only once we get into the second half of next year will things start to pick up. That said, compared to where we were when we did the midyear outlook, it's actually a notable upgrade. We've taken real signal from the fact that business spending, household spending have both been stronger than we think. And we've tried to add in just a little bit more in terms of productivity growth from AI. Layer on top of that, the Fed who's been clearly willing to start to ease interest rates sooner than we thought at the time of the mid-year outlook – all comes together for a little bit better outlook for growth for 2026 in the U.S. Serena Tang: Seth thanks so much for taking the time to talk. Seth Carpenter: Serena, it is always my pleasure to get to talk to you. Serena Tang: And thanks for listening. Please be sure to tune into the second half of our conversation tomorrow to hear how we're thinking about investment strategy in the year ahead. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

After President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping met in South Korea late last month, some tariffs have been suspended or lowered, and China said it will restart purchases of U.S. soybeans and other agricultural goods. To hear about the mood among Chinese buyers and U.S. exporters, Marketplace's Jennifer Park recently attended a trade show in Shanghai. But first: an ethics violation by a former Fed and the impacts of delayed government data.

From the BBC World Service: As COP30 in Brazil enters its second week, one of the key agreements protecting the Amazon rainforest is under threat from powerful Brazilian agri-business interests. Currently, a pact bans the sale of soy beans — Brazil's largest agricultural export — grown on Amazon land deforested after 2008. Then, shares in Japanese retail and travel-related companies fell after China urged citizens not to visit the country over remarks made by Japan's prime minister about Taiwan.

Tomorrow's when we're supposed to learn more about how imports and exports have been faring from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, though the 43-day government shutdown may still delay that data release. What might those numbers be able to tell us (whenever they do come out) about some of the impacts of the president's tariffs? Plus, China has a glut of EVs, and that oversupply is starting to spill over into the rest of the world.

The Second World War saw the development of many new weapons. Perhaps none was more terrifying than the development of long-range strategic rockets.  Rockets had been used in combat for centuries, dating back to their development in ancient China; however, the rockets developed by Germany were a different matter altogether.  They terrorized civilians in England and actually served as the starting point of the space race.  Learn more about the V1 and V2 rockets and the Nazi rocket program on this episode of Everything Everywhere Daily. Sponsors Quince Go to quince.com/daily for 365-day returns, plus free shipping on your order! Mint Mobile Get your 3-month Unlimited wireless plan for just 15 bucks a month at mintmobile.com/eed Stash Go to get.stash.com/EVERYTHING to see how you can receive $25 towards your first stock purchase. Newspaper.com Go to Newspapers.com to get a gift subscription for the family historian in your life! Subscribe to the podcast!  https://everything-everywhere.com/everything-everywhere-daily-podcast/ -------------------------------- Executive Producer: Charles Daniel Associate Producers: Austin Oetken & Cameron Kieffer   Become a supporter on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/everythingeverywhere Discord Server: https://discord.gg/UkRUJFh Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/everythingeverywhere/ Facebook Group: https://www.facebook.com/groups/everythingeverywheredaily Twitter: https://twitter.com/everywheretrip Website: https://everything-everywhere.com/  Disce aliquid novi cotidie Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

China is making huge investments in eco-friendly technology and is quickly becoming the biggest source of renewable exports around the globe. Also, a special tribunal in Bangladesh sentences ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to death over deadly crackdowns on a student-led uprising last year. And, Equal Pay Day draws attention to the wage gap between men and women in Europe. Plus, a new study finds that the average human spends 78 minutes a day on the move.Listen to today's Music Heard on Air. Learn about your ad choices: dovetail.prx.org/ad-choices

Tomorrow's when we're supposed to learn more about how imports and exports have been faring from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, though the 43-day government shutdown may still delay that data release. What might those numbers be able to tell us (whenever they do come out) about some of the impacts of the president's tariffs? Plus, China has a glut of EVs, and that oversupply is starting to spill over into the rest of the world.

From the BBC World Service: As COP30 in Brazil enters its second week, one of the key agreements protecting the Amazon rainforest is under threat from powerful Brazilian agri-business interests. Currently, a pact bans the sale of soy beans — Brazil's largest agricultural export — grown on Amazon land deforested after 2008. Then, shares in Japanese retail and travel-related companies fell after China urged citizens not to visit the country over remarks made by Japan's prime minister about Taiwan.

After President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping met in South Korea late last month, some tariffs have been suspended or lowered, and China said it will restart purchases of U.S. soybeans and other agricultural goods. To hear about the mood among Chinese buyers and U.S. exporters, Marketplace's Jennifer Park recently attended a trade show in Shanghai. But first: an ethics violation by a former Fed and the impacts of delayed government data.

Watch the whole podcast: https://chinauncensored.tv/programs/podcast-315 Donald Trump says he's tough on China, but is he being outplayed by Xi Jinping? Counterintelligence expert Casey Fleming says yes. The Chinese Communist Party is using deception, rare earth minerals, and economic leverage to manipulate global leaders. And Trump is falling for it. Pre-order Casey's book "The Red Tsunami": http://theredtsunami.com

In a major shift, President Donald Trump is now calling for the release of the Epstein files. The US has designated a Venezuelan cartel as a terrorist organization. The UN is set for a crucial vote on the US-backed peace proposal for Gaza. We explain why China is warning its citizens against traveling to Japan. Plus, why a staunch Trump ally has turned against the President.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

An unprecedented slump in Chinese investment. That's what one media outlet called it. I don't think slump is the right word. Crash might be a more appropriate one. While that tends to be overused, the numbers show not in this case. Especially when they are backed up by a crash in household lending in China, too, as Chinese banks just put up more grim stats. And all of this confirmation of what I told you months ago, the something big has changed over there this summer. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Bloomberg China's Investment Crash Puzzles Economists and Threatens Growthhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-14/china-s-investment-crash-puzzles-economists-and-threatens-growthBloomberg PBOC Justifies Loan Slowdown Following Record Contractionhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-11/pboc-justifies-loan-slowdown-following-record-contractionhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and Corey welcome Nick Hodge to the show. Nick is the editor of Underground Alpha at Digest Publishing and an expert natural resource investor. Nick kicks off the show by discussing how he got into natural resource investing. He says that he began with a focus on clean technology but switched lanes after the great financial crisis hit. Sharing a case study, Nick talks about antimony miner Perpetua Resources and notes that "the smart money is now here" in the natural resource space. Nick also makes his bullish case for $5,000 or $6,000 gold over the next 12 to 18 months – there are more buyers than sellers, the metal is "underowned," and crypto traders continue to enter the space. (0:00) Next, Nick says his specialty is evaluating junior miners, so he dives deep into what he looks for in each company – both in terms of share structure and management. After that, Nick covers human psychology versus the cyclical nature of natural resources, the U.S. outsourcing the production and refining of rare earths and minerals to China, and why the federal government is now scrambling to reverse the outsourcing. He explains that we're still at the very beginning of this growth trend, so there's time for investors to profit for years to come. (19:39) Finally, Nick explains the nuance in precious metals investing, including the difference between heavy and light rare earths. He then shares the name of a technology company he likes today that tracks and digitizes mining-company data. Nick says that it "brings mining out from the opaque nature that it has into a transparent nature." And he closes with a conversation about the importance of investing in precious metals in such rough economic times. (39:00)

Last time we spoke about the Soviet-Japanese Border Conflict. The border between Soviet Manchuria and Japanese-occupied territories emerges not as a single line but as a mosaic of contested spaces, marks, and memories. A sequence of incidents, skirmishes along the Chaun and Tumen rivers, reconnaissance sorties, and the complex diplomacy of Moscow, Tokyo, and peripheral actors to trace how risk escalated from routine patrols to calibrated leverage. On the ground, terrain functioned as both obstacle and argument: ridges like Changkufeng Hill shaping sightlines, river valleys shaping decisions, and markers weathered by snow, wind, and drift. In command tents, officers translated terrain into doctrine: contingency plans, supply routes, and the precarious calculus of restraint versus escalation. Both nations sought to establish firmer defensive barriers against the other. Inevitably they were destined to clash, but how large that clash would become, nobody knew.   #176 The Changkufeng Incident Welcome to the Fall and Rise of China Podcast, I am your dutiful host Craig Watson. But, before we start I want to also remind you this podcast is only made possible through the efforts of Kings and Generals over at Youtube. Perhaps you want to learn more about the history of Asia? Kings and Generals have an assortment of episodes on history of asia and much more  so go give them a look over on Youtube. So please subscribe to Kings and Generals over at Youtube and to continue helping us produce this content please check out www.patreon.com/kingsandgenerals. If you are still hungry for some more history related content, over on my channel, the Pacific War Channel where I cover the history of China and Japan from the 19th century until the end of the Pacific War. In the last episode we broke down a general history of the Soviet-Japanese Border Conflict and how it escalated significantly by 1938. Colonel Inada Masazum serving as chief of the 2nd Operations Section within the Operations Bureau in March of 1938 would play a significant role in this story. When the Japanese command's attention was drawn to the area of Changkufeng, consideration was given to the ownership and importance of the disputed high ground. Inada and his operations section turned to an appraisal of the geography. The officers had been impressed by the strategic importance of the Tumen, which served to cut off the hill country from North Korea. In the Changkufeng area, the river was a muddy 600 to 800 meters wide and three to five meters deep. Japanese engineers had described rowing across the stream as "rather difficult."  Russian roads on the left bank were very good, according to Japanese intelligence. Heavy vehicles moved easily; the Maanshan section comprised the Russians' main line of communications in the rear. To haul up troops and materiel, the Russians were obliged to use trucks and ships, for there were no railways apart from a four-kilometer line between the harbor and town of Novokievsk. Near Changkufeng, hardly any roadways were suitable for vehicular traffic. On the right, or Korean, bank of the Tumen, there were only three roads suitable for vehicular traffic, but even these routes became impassable after a day or two of rain. In the sector between Hill 52 to the south and Shachaofeng to the north, the most pronounced eminences were Chiangchunfeng and the humps of Changkufeng. Rocky peaks were characteristically shaped like inverted T's, which meant many dead angles against the crests. The gentle slopes would allow tanks to move but would restrict their speed, as would the ponds and marshes. In general, the terrain was treeless and afforded little cover against aircraft. Against ground observation or fire, corn fields and tall miscanthus grass could provide some shielding. Between Chiangchunfeng and the Tumen, which would have to serve as the main route of Japanese supply, the terrain was particularly sandy and hilly. This rendered foot movement difficult but would reduce the effectiveness of enemy bombs and shells. The high ground east of Khasan afforded bases for fire support directed against the Changkufeng region. Plains characterized the rest of the area on the Soviet side, but occasional streams and swamps could interfere with movement of tanks and trucks. The only towns or villages were Novokievsk, Posyet, Yangomudy, and Khansi. At Kozando there were a dozen houses; at Paksikori, a few. The right bank was farmed mainly by Koreans, whose scattered cottages might have some value for billeting but offered none for cover. On the left bank, the largest hamlets were Fangchuanting, with a population of 480 dwelling in 73 huts, and Yangkuanping, where there were 39 cottages. Shachaofeng was uninhabited. Japanese occupation of Changkufeng would enable observation of the plain stretching east from Posyet Bay, although intelligence made no mention of Soviet naval bases, submarine pens, or airstrips in the immediate area of Posyet, either in existence or being built in 1938. As Inada knew, the Japanese Navy judged that Posyet Bay might have another use, as a site for Japanese landing operations in the event of war. In Russian hands, the high ground would endanger the Korean railway. This line, which started from Najin in northeastern Korea, linked up with the vital system in Manchuria at the town of Tumen and provided a short cut, if not a lifeline, between Japan and the Kwantung Army and Manchuria from across the Sea of Japan. Even from relatively low Changkufeng, six or seven miles of track were exposed to Soviet observation between Hongui and Shikai stations. The port of Najin, with its fortress zone, lay 11 miles southwest; Unggi lay even nearer. It was not the danger of Japanese shelling of Vladivostok, at an incredible range of 80 miles that was at stake but the more realistic hypothesis of Russian shelling of the rail line, and Russian screening of the Soviet side of the border. Hills and questions were thought to have two sides. It was the consensus of Japanese that Changkufeng Hill's potential value to the Russians far outweighed its possible benefits to them, or at least that the Japanese had more to lose if the Russians took the high ground by the Tumen. Inada nurtured few illusions concerning the intrinsic value of the heights. Despite the fact that the high command always had good reasons for quiescence in the north, Inada believed that the latest border difficulty could not be overlooked. By mid-July 1938 Inada's thoughts crystallized. The Japanese would conduct a limited reconnaissance in force known as iryoku teisatsu in the strategic sense. Whereas, at the tactical schoolbook level, this might mean the dispatch of small forces into enemy territory to seek local combat intelligence, at the Imperial General Headquarters level the concept was far more sweeping. There would also be useful evidence of mobilization and other buildup procedures. The affair at Changkufeng was merely a welcome coincidence, something started by the Russians but liable to Japanese exploration. Inada had no intention of seizing territory, of becoming involved in a war of attrition at a remote and minor spot, or of provoking hostilities against the USSR. The Russians would comprehend the nature of the problem, too. If they were interested in interfering seriously with the Japanese, there were numberless better locations to cause trouble along the Manchurian front; those were the places to watch. The cramped Changkufeng sector, described as "narrow like a cat's brow," could too readily be pinched off from Hunchun to render it of strategic value to either side. The bog land to the north interfered with the use of armored forces, while artillery sited on the heights along the Tumen in Korea could as easily control the area as batteries emplaced east of the lake. It was Inada's professional opinion that the Russians could commit three or four infantry divisions there at most, with no mechanized corps—no heavy tanks, in particular. No decisive battle could be waged, although, once the Russians became involved, they might have to cling to the hill out of a sense of honor. The military action would be meaningless even if the Japanese let the Russians have the heights. For their part, the Japanese would ostensibly be fighting to secure the boundary and to hold Changkufeng peak, beyond which they would not move a step onto Soviet soil. There would be no pursuit operations. Troop commitment would be limited to about one division without tank support. Japanese Air Force intervention would be forbidden. Matters would be directed entirely by Imperial General Headquarters working through the Korea Army chain of command and carried out by the local forces. Calm, clear, and dispassionate overall estimates and instructions would be based on materials available only in Tokyo. The command would not allow the Kwantung Army to touch the affair. Inada foresaw that the Japanese government might also seek a settlement through diplomacy. Although border demarcation was desirable and should be sought, the command would not insist on it, nor would it demand permanent occupation of Changkufeng summit. As soon as reconnaissance objectives had been achieved, the local forces would be withdrawn. As Inada described it "In the process, we would have taught the Russians some respect and given them a lesson concerning their repeated, high-handed provocations and intrusions. If a show of force sufficed to facilitate the negotiations and cause the Russians to back down, so much the better; the affair would be over and my point proved." The instrument for carrying out Inada's strategic design appeared to be ideal, the 19th Division, strenuously trained and high-spirited. It could be expected to perform very well if unleashed within defined limits. Colonel Suetaka was just the commander to direct local operations. Since he had been pleading to fight in China, an operation at Changkufeng might prove to be an excellent "safety valve." His staff was full of experienced, fierce warriors eager for battle. Until recently, the Korea Army commanding general had wisely kept the aggressive division away from Changkufeng Hill, but now Imperial general headquarters had its own overriding ideas and needs. How could the Japanese ensure that any military action would remain limited if the Russians chose to respond with vigor? Naturally, one infantry division, without armor or air support, could not withstand all of the Soviet forces in the maritime province. Inada answered that the mission to be assigned the 19th Division was merely the recapture of Changkufeng crest. If the Japanese side had to break off the operation, evacuation would be effected voluntarily and resolutely on Imperial general headquarters responsibility, without considerations of "face." At worst, the Japanese might lose one division, but the affair would be terminated at the Tumen River without fail. "Even so, we ought to be able to prove our theory as well as demonstrate our true strength to the Russians." In case the Soviets opted for more than limited war, the Japanese were still not so overextended in China that they could not alter their strategic disposition of troops. Although the Kwantung Army's six divisions were outnumbered four to one and the Japanese were not desirous of a war at that moment, the first-class forces in Manchuria could make an excellent showing. In addition, the high command possessed armor, heavy artillery, fighters, and bombers, held in check in Manchuria and Korea, as well as reserves in the homeland. There was also the 104th Division, under tight Imperial general headquarters control, in strategic reserve in southern Manchuria. Inada recalled "How would the Russians react? That was the answer I sought. Victory in China depended on it." By mid-July, the high command, at Inada's urging, had worked out a plan titled, "Imperial General headqaurters Essentials for Dealing with the Changkufeng Incident." Tada's telegram of 14 July to Koiso described succinctly the just-decided policy: the central authorities concurred with the Korea Army's opinion regarding the Changkufeng affair, then in embryo. Considering that Changkufeng Hill posed a direct threat to the frontier of Korea, Imperial General headqaurters would immediately urge the foreign ministry to lodge a stern protest. Next day, Tojo sent a telegram stating the Japanese policy of employing diplomacy; whether the Russians should be evicted by force required cautious deliberation in case the USSR did not withdraw voluntarily. On the basis of the guidance received from Imperial General headqaurters, the Korea Army drew up its own plan, "Essentials for Local Direction of the Changkufeng Incident," on 15 July. Intelligence officer Tsuchiya Sakae was sent promptly to the front from Seoul. At the same time, military authorities allowed the press to release news that Soviet troops were constructing positions inside Manchurian territory in an "obvious provocation." The government of Manchukuo was demanding an immediate withdrawal. Even then, those Japanese most closely connected with the handling of the Changkufeng Incident were not in agreement that everybody at command level was as ardent a proponent of reconnaissance in force as Inada claimed to be. Some thought that most, if not all, of his subordinates, youthful and vigorous, were in favor of the notion; others denied the existence of such an idea. Inada remained clear-cut in his own assertions. Everything done by the local Soviet forces, he insisted, must have been effected with the permission of Moscow; it was customary for the USSR not to abandon what it had once started. The Japanese Army never really thought that the Soviet Union would withdraw just as the result of diplomatic approaches. Therefore, from the outset, preparations were made to deal the Russians one decisive blow. Inada had recommended his plan, with its clear restrictions, to his colleagues and superiors; the scheme, he says, was approved 14 July "all the way up the chain of command, through the Army general staff and the ministry of war, with unexpected ease." The only real opposition, Inada recalled, came from the navy, whose staff advised the army operations staff, in all sincerity, to give up the idea of strategic reconnaissance. Inada adhered to his opinion stubbornly. He never forgot the grave look on the face of Captain Kusaka, the UN operations section chief, as the latter gave in reluctantly. The navy view was that the Changkufeng affair typified the army's aggressive policies as opposed to relative passivity on the part of the navy. Like Kusaka, Japanese Navy interviewees shared the fear that Changkufeng might prove to be the most dangerous military confrontation ever to occur between the USSR and Japan. In view of navy objections, one wonders where Inada could have drawn support for his concept of reconnaissance in force. If one accepts the comments contained in a letter from a navy ministry captain, Takagi Sokichi, to Baron Harada Kumao at the beginning of August, in the army and in a portion of the navy there existed "shallow-minded fellows who are apt to take a firm stand in the blind belief that the USSR would not really rise against us, neglecting the fact that the Russians had foreseen our weak points." Takagi also had violent things to say about "white-livered" Gaimusho elements that were playing up to the army. Although Takagi's remarks, expressed in confidence, were sharp, cautious injunctions were being delivered by the high command to the new Korea Army commander, General Nakamura Kotaro, who was about to leave for Seoul to replace Koiso. Nakamura's attitude was crucial for the course and outcome of the Changkufeng Incident. More of a desk soldier than a warrior, he characteristic ally displayed a wariness that was reinforced by the guidance provided him. This personal quality assumes even greater significance if one believes that the Russians may have initiated the Changkufeng Incident by exploiting the special opportunities afforded them by the routine replacement of the Korea Army commander, the temporary absence from Moscow of Ambassador Shigemitsu Mamoru, and the geographical as well as subjective gap between the Kwantung and Korea armies that was exposed during the Lyushkov affair. At 10:00 on 15 July Nakamura was designated army commander by the Emperor at the palace. Soon afterward, he was briefed by Imperial General headquarters officers. Hashimoto, the operations bureau chief, recalled that when he saw Nakamura off on 17 July, Hashimoto stressed prudence, limitation of any military action, and diplomatic solution of the problem. The new commanding general, Inada asserted, promised full cooperation. There was no mention, at this level, of Inada's concept of reconnaissance in force. When Nakamura reached Seoul, he found an Imperial order from Tokyo dated 16 July awaiting him. This important document stipulated that he could concentrate units under his command in Korea near the border against the trespassing Soviet forces in the Changkufeng area. Resort to force, however, was dependent upon further orders. This message was followed by a wire from Kan'in, the Army general staff chief. The Imperial order, it was explained, had been designed to support diplomatic negotiations. Simultaneous approval was granted for concentrating forces to respond swiftly in case the situation deteriorated. As for implementation of the Imperial order, discretion should be exercised in line with the opinion expressed earlier by Korea Army Headquarters. Negotiations were to be conducted in Moscow and Harbin, the location of a Soviet consulate in Manchukuo. Meanwhile, the command was dispatching two officers for purposes of liaison: Lt. Colonel Arisue Yadoru in Operations and Major Kotani Etsuo a specialist in Soviet intelligence. Inada advised Arisue that, apart from liaison flights inside the frontiers, particular care should be exercised with regard to actions that might lead to air combat. Nevertheless, although Inada stated that the Imperial order called for "a sort of military demonstration," he admitted that it meant preparatory action for an attack. The Korea Army senior staff officer, Iwasaki, recalled hearing nothing about secret intentions. Nakamura briefed his staff about the need for restraint, especially during this key period of the Wuhan operation. Koiso had disposed of speculation that he had issued an order to concentrate the 19th Division before Nakamura arrived, although he and Nakamura did have the opportunity to confer in Seoul before he departed for Japan. The Imperial order of 16 July, in response to Koiso's inquiry received in Tokyo on 14 July, had arrived in Seoul addressed to Nakamura; thereupon, the Korea Army chief of staff, Kitano, had the message conveyed to the division. By 21 July Koiso was back in Tokyo where, the day afterward, he advised the war minister, Itagaki, "to act prudently with respect to the Changkufeng problem." Why did the high command dispatch two field-grade liaison officers to Korea from the outset of the Changkufeng Incident? The Korea Army lacked operations staff. Its commander had been allotted prime responsibility, within the chain of command, for defense of northeastern Korea. At the beginning, the highest-ranking staff officer at the front was a major. Since there were no fundamental differences of opinion between the command and the forces in Korea, it was proper to send experts from Tokyo to assist. Imperial General headqaurters would observe the situation carefully, devise measures on the basis of the overall view, and issue orders which the Korea Army would implement through ordinary channels. It had not been the type of incident which required the army commander to go to the front to direct. This was the Korea Army's first test, and political as well as diplomatic problems were involved that the army in the field should not or could not handle. If Tokyo had left decisions to the division and its regiments, the latter would have been held to account, which was not proper. Imperial General headquarters had to assume responsibility and reassure local commanders of its full support. Imaoka Yutaka explained that operational guidance by Imperial General headquarters and line operations conducted by the 19th Division formed the core of the affair; the Korea Army, placed between, was "shadowy." Koiso had not been enthusiastic; this set the mood among the staff. Nakamura, who arrived with a thorough comprehension of AGS thinking, was basically passive. The Korea Army staff, in general, included no "wild boars."    There was an urgent need to monitor developments. Not only was the Korea Army unfamiliar with handling this type of incident, but many hitches occurred. There had been no practice in emergency transmission of coded wires between the Korea Army and Tokyo. Now telegram after telegram had to be sent; most were deciphered incorrectly and many were not decoded at all. Another problem centered on the lack of knowledge in Tokyo about the situation on the spot, which only visual observation could rectify. As a result, the two Army general staff experts, Arisue and Kotani, arrived in Korea on 16 July. Kotani recalled that he was to collect intelligence and assist the local authorities. One of the first duties that he and Arisue performed was to disseminate the principle that use of force required a prior Imperial order. Also on 16 July, Japanese newspapers reported that the USSR was still concentrating troops, that the Manchukuoan government was watching intently, "decisive punitive measures" were being contemplated by the Japanese-Manchukuoan authorities, and there were signs of a worsening of the crisis. Despite good reasons for this gloomy appraisal, the Japanese press had not yet given the incident page-one treatment. More alarming news was being disseminated abroad. Domei, the official Japanese news agency, reported that the situation would probably become worse unless Soviet troops were withdrawn. The position of the Japanese government impressed foreign correspondents as unusually firm. Informants characterized the Changkufeng Incident as the most serious affair since the clash on the Amur River in 1937. Irked by the Korea Army's timidity and eager for first-hand information, the Kwantung Army dispatched two observers to the front: from Intelligence, Ogoshi Kenji, and from Operations, Tsuji Masanobu. If you listen to my pacific war week by week podcast or echoes of war, you know I highlight Tsuji Masanobu as one of the most evil Japanese officers of WW2. No other way to describe this guy, he was a shithead. In his memoirs, Tsuji asserted that he and Ogoshi climbed Changkufeng Hill, discerned Soviet soldiers digging across the peak in Manchurian territory, and concluded that "probably even Tokyo could not overlook such a clear-cut case of invasion." Although his account aligned with the general thrust, Ogoshi contended that Tsuji could not have accompanied him. According to sources with the 19th Division, when Koiso learned that Tsuji and Ogoshi were disparaging the Korea Army's ability to defend Changkufeng, he ordered "those spies" ousted. Ogoshi replied that the army staff was not angry, but Koiso did become furious and ordered Ogoshi "arrested for trespassing." Ogoshi surmised that Koiso's concern was that emotional outsiders such as Tsuji could provoke trouble, perhaps even war, if they visited Changkufeng. This view was widely shared. Inada stated that he made a practice of keeping away to maintain the degree of detachment and impartiality required of high command authorities. One sidelight to the "fraternal" visit to the Changkufeng area by observers from Hsinking was provided by Lt. Colonel Katakura Tadashi, chief of the Kwantung Army's 4th Section, which handled Manchukuo affairs, primarily political direction. When Katakura visited the Operations Section, Tsuji and Ogoshi told him that an intrusion had been confirmed and that the Kwantung Army staff was studying ways to evict the Soviets. Katakura consulted Maj. General Ishiwara Kanji, acting chief of staff, who was already in possession of the draft of an operations order calling for offensive preparations by the Kwantung Army against the Russians at Changkufeng. Katakura asked for reconsideration of the order. This was not a matter to be handled solely by the operations staff. Borders and international affairs were involved; hence the 4th Section, along with the Manchukuoan government, the Gaimusho, and other agencies, were concerned. Field observers were expressing exaggerated personal opinions based on having seen Soviet sentries on a hilltop. If the matter fell within the Korea Army's defensive prerogative, that army ought to handle it. Apparently the Kwantung Army commander and Ishiwara agreed with Katakura, for the draft order was not approved. The so-called private message dispatched by a Kwantung Army staff officer just before Koiso's departure may have been provoked by this rejection of direct participation by forces under Kwantung Army command. Staff officers in Tokyo believed that Hsinking could not see the forest for the trees. In the high command's view, the Kwantung Army's deliberate escalation of a negligible frontier incident undoubtedly stemmed from a failure to grasp the strategic requirements of national defense—pursuit of the campaign in China, the nurturance of Manchukuo, and the buildup of operational readiness for the ultimate solution of the Soviet problem. The high command felt obliged to remind the Kwantung Army that, in dealing with the Changkufeng Incident, the central authorities pressed for a Russian pullback through diplomacy. Consequently, the Korea Army had been instructed to be ready to concentrate troops near Changkufeng as a "background." Meanwhile, it remained the Imperial will that utmost prudence be exercised. The Kwantung Army commander accordingly issued cautious instructions to subordinate units, especially those on the eastern border. The high command's injunctions did not end the discontent and recrimination at the lower levels of Kwantung Army Headquarters, nor did they quiet the concern felt in Tokyo. A former war minister told Baron Harada repeatedly in late July that the Kwantung Army was "no good," while the superintendent of police added that the Kwantung Army was embarrassing Foreign Minister Ugaki. Nevertheless, the Kwantung Army did exert self-restraint. For its part, the Korea Army naïvely sought to achieve entente with an antagonist who considered the case nonnegotiable. First, the government of Manchukuo was asked to lodge a formal protest with the USSR. The commissioner for foreign affairs at Harbin phoned V. V. Kuznetzov, the acting consul, on the night of 14 July and saw him on the 18th. Basing its contentions on maps, the Haensing regime demanded Soviet withdrawal from Changkufeng. The Japanese government was lodging similar protests within the framework of Japanese-Manchukuoan joint defense agreements. On the spot, the situation inflamed. During the afternoon of 15 July, a Japanese military police patrol from Korea reconnoitered at the foot of Hill 52, southeast of Changkufeng. The party came under Soviet gunfire and was driven back, abandoning the body of Corp. Matsushima Shakuni. Japanese sources claimed that a Russian ambush had been set inside Manchuria. The Russian side insisted that it was the Soviet frontier that had been violated by thirty meters. Kuzma Grebennik, the colonel commanding the 59th BGU, which covered the Posyet sector, asserted that Matsushima's effects included a notebook containing reconnaissance results and a camera with film of Soviet-claimed terrain, particularly Changkufeng Hill. According to Maj. Gilfan Batarshin, a subordinate of Grebennik, two Russian border guards from Podgornaya opened fire when the Japanese fled after being challenged. Japanese protests to the USSR about the death of Matsushima and the taking of his body were added to the negotiations concerning the disputed border and the alleged trespassing. Charge Nishi Haruhiko lodged a vigorous complaint in Moscow on 15 July but was answered by a counterprotest. Ambassador Shigemitsu underwent an identical experience during a conversation with Foreign Commissar Maxim Litvinov on 20 July. Shigemitsu retorted that the murder tended to exacerbate the negotiations. In his memoirs, he stated that the killing of Matsushima provoked the local Japanese border garrison unit. The shooting occurred as the Soviet military buildup continued, according to Japanese sources. Mechanized units were reported moving in the direction of Kyonghun from Barabash and Posyet Bay. Biplanes were reconnoitering the Hunchun Valley, within Manchurian territory, from the afternoon of 16 July. To the local Japanese authorities, it seemed that the Russians were adopting a challenging attitude. Although the Japanese-Manchukuoan side remained willing to negotiate—that is, to take no forceful actions if the Russians would withdraw, the latter appeared not to share such an intention. The Soviets were not only misinterpreting the Hunchun treaty to their advantage but were encroaching beyond what they claimed to be the line; they "lacked sincerity." Decisive use of force might have been imperative to secure the Manchurian border, which was Japan's legal responsibility. As far north as Tungning on the eastern Manchurian frontier, two Soviet ground divisions and considerable numbers of tanks and aircraft were reported massed in full view. At Changkufeng, Russian soldiers fortified the crest. Mountain guns were now seen with muzzles pointed toward Manchuria, and Japanese intelligence estimated that Soviet troop strength near Changkufeng had grown to 120 or 130 by the evening of 18 July. As Sawamoto Rikichiro, an Imperial aide, noted in his diary, "It would seem that settlement of the affair had become increasingly difficult." Korea Army staff officer Tsuchiya sent two emissaries bearing the notice to the Soviet border. The pair, "blazing with patriotic ardor,"set out on 18 July, carrying a message in one hand and a white flag in the other. From Kyonghun came the report the next day that there had been an urgent, well-attended Soviet staff meeting at BGU Headquarters in Novokievsk all night, and that the Russian side had been discomfited by the Japanese request, which had been transmitted to higher authorities. Still, the emissaries did not return, while a stream of reports indicated a Soviet buildup along a dozen frontier sectors. Russian authorities had reportedly forced the natives to evacuate an area twenty miles behind their borders. From Japanese observation posts, Soviet convoys of men, guns, and horses could be sighted moving toward Novokievsk after being unloaded from transports originating at Vladivostok. Japanese Army Intelligence reported that on 18 July a regimental-size force had arrived at Novokievsk; artillery displacements forward were particularly visible by night east of Khasan. A confidential Gaimusho message indicated that Soviet truck movements between Posyet, Novokievsk, and the front had increased since the 20th. Russian intrusions, kidnappings, and sniping incidents were reported along the Manchurian borders, from Manchouli on the west to Suifenho on the east, between 18 and 25 July. Aircraft on daytime reconnaissance were detected as far as three miles inside Manchurian territory in the Hunchun area. Although the Japanese asserted that their forbearance was being tested, Izvestiya charged "Japanese militarists" with manufacturing an affair at Ussuri as well as at Changkufeng. The Japanese themselves received reports from the Changkufeng front that by 20 July the Soviets had 250 soldiers, armed with field pieces, trench mortars, howitzers, and light and heavy machine guns, on the southern slopes. The Russians were putting up tents capable of holding 40 men each; officers could be observed for the first time. On the evening of the 20th, the Soviets lobbed illuminating shells toward Manchurian territory. I would like to take this time to remind you all that this podcast is only made possible through the efforts of Kings and Generals over at Youtube. Please go subscribe to Kings and Generals over at Youtube and to continue helping us produce this content please check out www.patreon.com/kingsandgenerals. If you are still hungry after that, give my personal channel a look over at The Pacific War Channel at Youtube, it would mean a lot to me. Inada Masazum, studying maps and mud, saw Changkufeng Hill as a prize with peril, a test of nerve rather than a conquest. Tokyo's orders pulsed through Seoul and Harbin: guard, probe, and deter, but avoid full-scale war. Across the border, Soviet units pressed closer, lights and tents flickering on the hillside. The sea within sight whispered of strategy, diplomacy, and a warning: a single misstep could redraw Asia. And so the standoff waited, patient as winter.

Join Doug Billings on this fiery 15-minute edition of The Right Side, celebrating the tidal wave of Americans embracing freedom, faith, and family values amid cultural shifts, surging polls, and youth turning right. Doug exposes radical Commusocialist (formerly known as Democrat) threats, spotlights U.S. ingenuity crushing Russia's botched robots and China's crumbling bridges, and arm you to guard our exceptionalism. Get fired up—share if you're part of the majority reclaiming the American Dream!#TheRightSide #ConservatismRising---------------------Prayerfully consider donating to Doug's show by setting up a monthly recurring donation of $5/month at: www.DougBillings.usSupport the show