Podcast appearances and mentions of monte carlo simulations

In this episode of Beer and Money, Ryan Burklo discusses essential aspects of retirement planning, focusing on cash flow, taxation, and the risks associated with relying solely on market returns. He emphasizes the importance of setting up a flexible balance sheet to ensure financial security in retirement, while also addressing legacy objectives and minimizing tax liabilities. Check out our website:  beerandmoney.net For a quick assessment of your current financial life go to: https://www.livingbalancesheet.com/lbsVision/lite/RyanBurklo Takeaways We care about the highest cash flow to live the life we want. We want to pay the lowest rate of tax on that cash flow. We never want to outlive or outrun our money. We want to hit legacy objectives for our family. We want to do these with minimal dependence on rate of return. Understanding tax distribution status is crucial for retirement planning. Relying solely on market returns can be risky. Setting up a flexible balance sheet is essential for financial security. Life insurance can provide both protection and cash value. It's important to consider how to turn on income streams in retirement. Chapters 00:00 Introduction to Retirement Planning 01:24 Understanding Cash Flow and Taxation 04:51 The Risks of Relying on Rate of Return 09:12 Setting Up a Flexible Balance Sheet

In this episode of Beer and Money, Ryan Burklo discusses the essential elements of retirement planning, emphasizing the importance of making informed decisions today to secure a successful retirement in the future. He outlines key factors that individuals should consider when saving for retirement, including income needs, tax implications, and the desire to leave a legacy. The episode also delves into asset allocation strategies and the use of Monte Carlo simulations to assess the risk of outliving one's savings. Ryan concludes by hinting at future discussions on cash flow strategies and retirement planning techniques. Check out our website:  beerandmoney.net For a quick assessment of your current financial life go to: https://www.livingbalancesheet.com/lbsVision/lite/RyanBurklo Takeaways We're making decisions today that will affect our lifestyle. They want the highest cash flow possible. They want to pay the lowest rate of tax. They never want to outlive their money. They want to meet any legacy objectives. Most wealth is in 401k type plans. Monte Carlo simulations help assess financial risks. A conservative portfolio can yield an average of 8%. The 4% rule is a common guideline for withdrawals. Building a flexible bucket of money is crucial. Chapters 00:00 Introduction to Retirement Planning 01:15 Key Factors in Retirement Savings 02:40 Understanding Asset Allocation 04:56 Monte Carlo Simulation Explained 06:56 Strategies to Avoid Outliving Your Money 08:53 Conclusion and Next Steps

Abe delves into the evolving landscape of retirement planning, focusing on the 4% rule and its recent adjustment to 3.7% as suggested by Morningstar. As the founder of Ashton and Associates, Abe Ashton has more than 20 years of financial planning experience helping thousands of families in Utah, Nevada, and across the country retire with confidence. Abe’s mission is to provide client-focused education and solutions to seniors and retirees, that help them achieve the retirement they’ve worked so hard for. To get more information on Ashton & Associates, or to schedule a consultation call, 435-688-9500 or visit AshtonWealth.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode, we take a closer look at Monte Carlo simulations—a tool used in retirement planning to estimate your chances of success. But are those percentages really reliable? Can an 85% or 90% success rate give you confidence in your retirement plan? We'll explain how these simulations work, how different assumptions can lead to very different results, and why you shouldn't just rely on past returns.  If you're thinking, "I love the Big Picture Retirement podcast!” please consider rating and reviewing this show! This helps us support more people -- just like you -- move toward a confident retirement. Just scroll down to the “ratings and reviews” section, tap to rate with five stars, and select “Write a Review.” Then be sure to let us know what you loved most about the episode! Also, if you haven't done so already, follow the podcast. We add new content every week, and if you're not following, you'll likely miss out. Follow now!  Don't miss the Big Picture Retirement Planning Cheat Sheet. We've distilled the essential brackets, thresholds, and rules of retirement into an easy-to-digest, three-page summary. https://www.carrolladvisory.com/pl/2148282517  Want to ask Devin or John your question? Just visit https://www.bigpictureretirement.com/ and click on the “Ask A Question” menu selection.  Although this show does not provide specific tax, legal, or financial advice, you can engage Devin or John through their individual firms.  Contact Devin's team at https://www.carrolladvisory.com/  Contact John's team at https://www.rossandshoalmire.com/   

This week, your host, Dan Neumann, discusses his perspective on the influence of Artificial Intelligence on Agile Teams. AI has created excitement and great expectations, undoubtedly changing how we perceive work and raising some concerns. In this episode, Dan dives deep into how Generative AI can impact Agile Teams' work, describing AI's use in this field and using valuable examples to describe several manners to incorporate AI to ease the work at different stages of an Agile process.   Key Takeaways Generative AI, a new thinking partner to Agile Teams: There are sensitivities around using the free AI models currently available. AI could be considered a great partner in addition to Team Members. The definition of done for each project cannot be delegated to AI, since the Team needs to determine the pros and cons, define the goals, and what it means to achieve them. Miro AI can be used as a Retrospective partner to examine the retrospective data the Team has been collecting. It can also help provide different ways of facilitating Retrospectives. AI is helpful to Delivery Teams in predicting releases. Agile Teams can use the Monte Carlo Simulation to predict a Team's velocity by looking at historical data to create a range of future possibilities. Sprint planning could be simpler with the aid of AI. An Agile Team can seek AI help to provide other work items that might support the original Sprint Goal, based on the product backlog. How can AI assist in dealing with bottlenecks? AI can help identify some bottleneck trends based on the existing delivery data. AI as a tool for Product Owners and Quality Specialists to identify Acceptance Criteria: AI can assist Product Owners and Quality Specialists in defying product backlog Item acceptance criteria. To generate new acceptance criteria, test cases can be generated using an AI public tool or a technology ecosystem like Microsoft Copilot. Using Microsoft Copilot, a Team can look at the sentiment in which you are engaging with your Teammates. By searching the Team's chat emails, AI can help you anticipate potential issues. Ai can provide strategies to tackle a potential social challenge that might be reflected in the Team's communication. AI can use your historical information for risk management. AI can help a Team identify risks and develop strategies to solve them or even when to accept those risks since the cost of mitigating them exceeds the Team's capabilities. Agile Teams can use AI for prioritization. AI can explore big data, search for information on costs and benefits, and provide useful suggestions for prioritization.   Want to Learn More or Get in Touch? Visit the website and catch up with all the episodes on AgileThought.com! Email your thoughts or suggestions to Podcast@AgileThought.com or Tweet @AgileThought using #AgileThoughtPodcast!  

No one wants their retirement portfolio to run out of money before they die. Many retirement calculators use static assumptions, like a constant growth rate or inflation rate. The stock market may have average returns of around 10% per year but in any given year, it's rarely a 10% return. Some years it can be up 18% and other years down 10% or anywhere in between. If you really want to put your retirement portfolio (or your future retirement portfolio) to the test, there are online tools to help you do that. These tools use Monte Carlo simulations, which is a mathematical technique that predicts possible outcomes of an uncertain event.  In this episode, I specifically discuss:https://thepoorswiss.com/fire-calculator/https://Firecalc.comhttps://ficalc.app/https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/monte-carlo-simulationTwo additional tools can be found at:https://cfiresim.com/https://engaging-data.com/will-money-last-retire-early/ Please subscribe and leave a review on your favorite Podcasting platform.  If you want to start your path to financial freedom, start with the Financial Freedom Workbook. Download your free copy today at https://www.GrowYourWealthyMindset.com/fiworkbook You can learn more about Elisa at her website or follow her on social media.Website: https://ww.GrowYourWealthyMindset.comInstagram https://www.instagram.com/GrowYourWealthyMindsetFacebook https://www.facebook.com/ElisaChianghttps://www.facebook.com/GrowYourWealthyMindsetYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/WealthyMindsetMDLinked In: www.linkedin.com/in/ElisaChiang  Disclaimer: The content provided in the Grow Your Wealthy Mindset Podcast is for informational and entertainment only and should not be considered professional investment, legal, or tax advice. Dr Elisa Chiang is not a certified financial planner, attorney, or accountant.  The views expressed are the personal opinion of Elisa Chiang and her guests and should not be taken as advice specific to you, the listener of the podcast. Personal finance is personal and your personal financial decision need to be made based on your personal financial situation and risk tolerance after having completed your own due diligence.    

Frank and Frankie discuss the need for personalized financial advice, the significance of understanding withdrawal rates, and the potential pitfalls of relying solely on the 4% rule. The discussion also highlights the value of thorough financial planning, including tax savings and risk management, to maximize retirement income. Connect with the team at A Better Way Financial  to get a second opinion on your retirement plan today! CLICK HERE to register for one of our upcoming Tax-Smart Retirement Planning Dinner Workshops. Read our book! Amazon Best Seller, “The Book on Retirement: A Better Way to Stretch Your Retirement Dollars While Living the Lifestyle of Your Dreams.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Intelligent Investor, Market Cycles, Supply & Demand - Best of Host Matt on Investing & Economics AZ TRT - S05 EP34 (250) 9-1-2024 What We Learned This Week: The Intelligent Investor Ben Graham's teaching, and seminal investing book - Ch. 8 on Mr. Market, & Ch. 20 on Margin of Safety Market Cycles – importance of identifying them, to know where you are at when investing to avoid Bubbles and Mania Supply & Demand - Economics Simplified Capital Allocation - What is the Opportunity of your Business Investment? Gamblers Fallacy - What is the Probability of the Next Die Roll? Game Theory - Dr. Nash's Plan to Pickup Women       Notes:   Seg 1. MB on Ben Graham's teaching and seminal investing book, The Intelligent Investor (c 1949), & review of the 2 main chapters - Ch. 8 on Mr. Market, and Ch. 20 on Margin of Safety Ben Graham was an economist, professor, and investor. He is also known as the Father of Value Investing, and the author of Security Analysis, and The Intelligent Investor. He stressed fundamental analysis of securities (stocks), investor mindset, focused investing, and ‘buy and hold'. He was Warren Buffet's professor, one time boss, friend and mentor. More: Here Buffet – Rule #1 Never Lose Money, Rule #2 Remember Rule #1 Ch. 8 - The Investor and Market Fluctuations / aka – Mr. Market Parable Ch. 20 - Margin of Safety as the Central Concept of Investment Stocks are a piece of ownership of a company, not just some piece of paper. You have to be able to value the company to determine if the market is selling you the stock at a discount, or if it is over-valued. A good investment is based on the price you pay for it. A good stock can be over-priced, and a bad stock can be a good buy if the price is depressed enough. You make money when you buy (what you pay).   Mr. Market is very emotional, and changes his mind daily. Sometimes he makes you an offer on a stock that is silly, and other times he offers a stock at a deep value, at a low price. This is when you should buy. It is all about psychology, discipline and patience.   Margin of Safety is the idea to buy stocks with a defensive mindset. Buy it cheaper than the value, so if your valuation was off, you give yourself room for error. You have to do detailed fundamental analysis to determine if a stock is over or under valued. Then you hold until the stock, ride out the fluctuations until it rises to its true value.   Full Show: HERE       Seg. 2   MB on legendary investor, Howard Marks of Oaktree and his Memos, in particular, Market Cycles. The importance of understanding Cycles, and how to identify them in investing. A look at market history, and investor psychology all connected to Market Cycles. Per Investopedia – Market Cycle The four stages of a market cycle include the accumulation, uptrend or markup, distribution, and downtrend or markdown phases. Accumulation Phase: Accumulation occurs after the market has bottomed and the innovators and early adopters begin to buy, figuring the worst is over. Markup Phase: This occurs when the market has been stable for a while and moves higher in price. Distribution Phase: Sellers begin to dominate as the stock reaches its peak. Downtrend: Downtrend occurs when the stock price is tumbling down. Examples – Tech Stock Bubble of 2000, Financial Crisis of 2008 (Housing Bubble), Pandemic of March 2020, Railroad Speculation mid-1800s, Great Depression 1929 Howard Marks quotes overheard in a Bubble: ‘This time it is different.' ‘The market can't fail.' The market does not always go up, there is Regression to the Mean – prices will eventually go down and even out. Be leery when there is euphoria in the market (be fearful), and maybe sell. Then buy after, post crash at depressed pricing levels. Buy Low, Sell High. Even a depressed asset can be attractive at the right (low) price. Michael Lewis book – Big Short on the Financial Crisis of 2008   Howard Marks Memos: https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights Books: Here (The Most Important Thing, Mastering the Market Cycle) Bio (c/o Wikipedia) - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Howard_Marks_(investor) Howard Stanley Marks (born April 23, 1946) is an American investor and writer. He is the co-founder and co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management, the largest investor in distressed securities worldwide. In 2020, with a net worth of $2.1 billion, Marks was ranked No. 391 on the Forbes 400 rankings of the wealthiest Americans.[2] Marks is admired in the investment community for his "memos", which detail his investment strategies and insight into the economy and are posted publicly on the Oaktree website. He has also published 3 books on investing.[3][4] According to Warren Buffett, "When I see memos from Howard Marks in my mail, they're the first thing I open and read. I always learn something, and that goes double for his book."[5] Funds led by Marks have produced long term returns net of fees of 19% per year. Investors are primarily pension funds and sovereign wealth funds.     Seg. 3 & 4 Economics 101 for Real World Business   Full Show: HERE   Supply & Demand Supply is the amount of a specific good or service that's available in the market. Demand is the amount of the good or service that customers want to buy. Supply and demand are both influenced by the price of goods and services. If there was only one pizza restaurant in a town and then a new pizza place opened, the demand for pizza from the first restaurant would drop. The price of gasoline often changes with the demand throughout the year. As people drive more in the summer, gasoline prices tend to rise. In professional football, owners sell entertainment (supply) and spectators buy the opportunity to view or display the game (demand). Meanwhile, owners also buy the services of athletes who wish to play (demand) and trained athletes make themselves available for a price (supply).   Marginal Utility What Is Marginal Utility? Marginal utility is the added satisfaction that a consumer gets from having one more unit of a good or service. The concept of marginal utility is used by economists to determine how much of an item consumers are willing to purchase. Sports David Beckham signed $250 mil contract in 2007 w LA Galaxy Galaxy willing to overpay to get the attention, ticket and merchandize sales What we will pay at the margin? There is only 1 Beckham, rare commodity, like a diamond – subjective on the value What is the value of a bottle of water in the desert?  If only 1, then pay a lot, if there are 50 available, then pay less    Capital Allocation – Capital Allocation is the process of distributing financial resources to different areas of a business to increase efficiency and maximize profits.   A Sunk Cost refers to money that has already been spent and which cannot be recovered. In business, the axiom that one has to “spend money to make money” is reflected in the phenomenon of the sunk cost. A sunk cost differs from future (or regular) costs that a business may face, such as decisions about inventory purchase costs or product pricing.    Sunk Costs also mean that the Money $ used on a bad investment is lost. Don't try to ‘chase it' to somehow recover and get even. Instead, just write it off, and move on.  It is better to use the New Money $ on better investments. Where to Invest your money $ is pivital to Capital Allocation. Simply put, learn to Control Your Capital and decide wisely what Opportunity (Cost)  it should go to be as efficient as possible. This is the intersection of scarcity and choice.   Opportunity Cost is the loss or gain of making a decision, the forgone benefit that would have been derived by an option not chosen. To properly evaluate opportunity costs, the costs and benefits of every option available must be considered and weighed against the others. Famous Phrase – “idle cash balances represent an opportunity cost in terms of lost interest”   Whether your time or money can be better spent on something else   Should you mow your own lawn, or hire someone and concentrate on your job to make more $   Division of Labor We do not cut our own hair, or drill our own teeth – we go to a dental specialist, saves time & $ over long term Concentrate on your specialties Pencil example – one co make wood, one makes eraser, one mines the graphite, and one co assemblies – we all benefit as it would be harder and cost more if same company did it all, suppliers w/ specialty help keep costs down     In Stock Investing – Beware the Zombie Co.s in the S&P Index.   These are companies that are not profitable, or growing (may even need a Bailout). They are just treading water, and paying their interest on debt, but not their principal. In the current S&P index, it is estimated that about 20% of companies are Zombie Co's whose main investment comes from people buying the whole Index.   Unfortunately another 30% of the Index are bad companies that are either are stagnant, or on their way to Zombie status. Maybe 10 – 15% of the Companies (Stocks) in the Index (50 – 75 Co's) are really good to exceptional and should get your Capital.    Do you want to own the best house on the block? Or all of them?         Gamblers Fallacy each roll of the die is separate from the last, no effect   The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy, occurs when an individual erroneously believes that a certain random event is less likely or more likely to happen based on the outcome of a previous event or series of events.   For example, the gambler's fallacy might cause someone to believe that if a coin just landed on heads twice in a row, then it's “due” to land on tails on the next toss.     Monte Carlo Simulation – use for modeling scenarios   One simple example of a Monte Carlo Simulation is to consider calculating the probability of rolling two standard dice. There are 36 combinations of dice rolls. Based on this, you can manually compute the probability of a particular outcome.   Monte Carlo Simulation is a mathematical method for calculating the odds of multiple possible outcomes occurring in an uncertain process through repeated random sampling. This computational algorithm makes assessing risks associated with a particular process convenient, thereby enabling better decision-making.   Probabilities   Probability is simply how likely something is to happen. Whenever we're unsure about the outcome of an event, we can talk about the probabilities of certain outcomes—how likely they are. The analysis of events governed by probability is called statistics.   Sports analytics is a more recent field that uses data to measure areas like athletic performance and business health to optimize the processes and success of a sports organization as a whole. On-field data metrics help teams decide how to improve in-game strategies, nutrition plans and other methods for raising their athletes' level of performance. Off the field, organizations can leverage data to monitor ticket sales, craft marketing campaigns and reduce operational costs.   Data lets teams and organizations track performance, make predictions and make smarter decisions on the field. Want to figure out what play is best to run on fourth down in a football game? Check the analytics. Wondering whether or not your pitcher should throw another inning? Check the analytics. Players still win games, but data allows coaches to put them in the best position to succeed.     Game Theory – science of human strategy, people behave differently in games Dr. Nash – A Beautiful Mind If they all go for the same girl in the bar, competition and no one gets her, but if they work together and pair off with the group of girls, they all may win As Nash explains it, if all the men approach the blonde first, none of the men will pair off: The blonde will reject them all as a crowd, and her brunette friends will reject them all individually because none of the women will accept being second choice to her friend. While used in several disciplines, game theory is most notably used as a tool within the study of business and economics. The "games" may involve how two competitor firms will react to price cuts by the other, whether a firm should acquire another, or how traders in a stock market may react to price changes.   Prisoners Dilemma The prisoner's dilemma presents a situation where two parties, separated and unable to communicate, must each choose between cooperating with the other or not. The highest reward for each party occurs when both parties choose to co-operate. Keep your mouth shut and tell the cops nothing, both walk   Cold War Example If both combatants do nothing, everyone lives, or mutual destruction with nuclear war War Games movie – no winner in hundreds of simulated games         Related Show:   Market Cycles, Risk, & Ben Graham's Intelligent Investor - Finance Lessons from BRT BRT S04 EP29 (192) 7-23-2023   What We Learned This Week:    Mean Reversion & Market Cycles – Asset prices do not go up forever, but rather fluctuate Assets – Valuations have gone down, forces Investors to evaluate the worth of an Asset, Risk / Reward analysis, no more ‘free' money Interest Rates – Don't Fight The Fed, raising rates to lower value of assets Market Risk – can get Treasury Bills at 4 – 5%, risk-free, need good ROI to invest in stocks with 10 – 20% downside risk Wealthy own Assets, Business, Real Estate, Stocks are the best and most popular The Intelligent Investor Ben Graham's teaching, and seminal investing book - Ch. 8 on Mr. Market, & Ch. 20 on Margin of Safety   Full Show: HERE             Business Topic: HERE   Investing Topic: https://brt-show.libsyn.com/category/investing More - BRT Best of: https://brt-show.libsyn.com/category/Best+Of   Thanks for Listening. Please Subscribe to the BRT Podcast.     AZ Tech Roundtable 2.0 with Matt Battaglia The show where Entrepreneurs, Top Executives, Founders, and Investors come to share insights about the future of business.  AZ TRT 2.0 looks at the new trends in business, & how classic industries are evolving.  Common Topics Discussed: Startups, Founders, Funds & Venture Capital, Business, Entrepreneurship, Biotech, Blockchain / Crypto, Executive Comp, Investing, Stocks, Real Estate + Alternative Investments, and more…    AZ TRT Podcast Home Page: http://aztrtshow.com/ ‘Best Of' AZ TRT Podcast: Click Here Podcast on Google: Click Here Podcast on Spotify: Click Here                    More Info: https://www.economicknight.com/azpodcast/ KFNX Info: https://1100kfnx.com/weekend-featured-shows/     Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this program are those of the Hosts, Guests and Speakers, and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of any entities they represent (or affiliates, members, managers, employees or partners), or any Station, Podcast Platform, Website or Social Media that this show may air on. All information provided is for educational and entertainment purposes. Nothing said on this program should be considered advice or recommendations in: business, legal, real estate, crypto, tax accounting, investment, etc. Always seek the advice of a professional in all business ventures, including but not limited to: investments, tax, loans, legal, accounting, real estate, crypto, contracts, sales, marketing, other business arrangements, etc.

Langfristige Geldanlagen erfordern mehr als nur den Wunsch nach Rendite. Welche das sind, bespreche ich hier. Viel Spaß beim Hören,Dein Matthias Krapp(Transkript dieser Folge weiter unten) NEU!!! Hier kannst Du Dich kostenlos für meinen Minikurs registrieren und reinschauen. Es lohnt sich: https://portal.abatus-beratung.com/geldanlage-kurs/   

Is volatility good or bad for you when you are investing?? 00:00 - Intro 00:36 - Bowling Into Retirement 05:38 - Accumulation and Volatility Study In today's story Jay shares how his experience with bowling technology and techniques can be likened to investment strategies. Did you know any of these facts about bowling? Do they help you visualize a healthy investment strategy? The main topic dives into a study on volatility during the accumulation phase of your life - your working years while you are saving for retirement. We know that volatility makes retirement itself difficult through sequence of returns risk. Is the same true for your accumulation phase? Does volatility help or harm you while you save and invest for retirement? Jay shares his findings and what they might mean for understanding investment strategies. In the end, he explains how these results will impact his personal choices in investing. Please don't forget to like, share, and subscribe! Doing so helps us grow and share HopeFilled financial wisdom. We release a new episode every Tuesday! Subscribe if you don't ever want to miss an episode! You can submit a question on our website (hopefilledfinancial.com) or message us on Facebook (@HopeFilledFinancial). Disclaimer: This podcast serves as educational entertainment only. Any and all opinions relating to real estate, law, taxes, insurance, and/or securities investing that may be contained within this podcast should not be interpreted or implemented as recommendations nor advice. The opinions related to these topics – especially those regulated by state and/or federal entities – should never be taken as replacement for advice from a competent, licensed professional. HopeFilled Financial Coaching is not liable for any individual acting on any understanding of topics directly or indirectly related to real estate, legal practice, taxes, insurance, or investing even if an individual in question changed their understanding after listening to this podcast. All listeners are entirely responsible for seeking advice from licensed professionals before taking any action of their own. Our Website: HopeFilledFinancial.com  Music: "Take Me Higher" by Jahzzar Music Copyright License: This music is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, PO Box 1866, Mountain View, CA 94042, USA.

Henssler Money Talks — May 4, 2024 Season 38, Episode 17 This week on “Money Talks,” Chief Investment Officer Troy Harmon, CFA, CVA, is joined by Managing Associate Jarrett McKenzie, CFP®, CWS®, and Senior Financial Planner Molly Remeika, CFP®, to cover the week's market movements and economic releases, including Personal Income, the PCE Deflator, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey. The financial experts help a couple of investors new to professional financial planning understand the differences between actively and passively managed investments and why an adviser may recommend one or the other. The hosts also address a listener's question on Monte Carlo Simulations, and how they work in financial planning. Timestamps and Chapters 00:00 Market Roundup: April 29 – May 3, 2024 25:16 Case Study: Actively and Passively Managed Investments 36:38 Q&A Time: Monte Carlo Simulations. Follow Henssler:  Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/HensslerFinancial/ YouTube:  https://www.youtube.com/c/HensslerFinancial LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/henssler-financial/ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/hensslerfinancial/ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@hensslerfinancial?lang=en X: https://www.x.com/hensslergroup  “Money Talks” is brought to you by Henssler Financial. Sign up for the Money Talks Newsletter: https://www.henssler.com/newsletters/ 

Episode 8: Ben Nowack built a fusion reactor in high school. Now he's building huge mirrors in space that reflect sunlight onto solar farms at night.======(00:00) - Intro(00:39) - What Reflect Orbital is Building(02:30) - How the Satellite Mirrors Work(06:16) - Deploying the Mirrors in Space(10:14) - Mirror Size Considerations(13:51) - Dealing with Space Debris and Micrometeorites(17:07) - Early Demonstrations with High Altitude Balloons(23:11) - Advantages over Other Space Solar Concepts(28:56) - Target Customers and Business Model(35:57) - Constellation Size and Orbit Design(40:42) - Using Solar Sailing for Propulsion(49:38) - Benefits of Solar Sailing for Space Exploration(54:06) - Tiny Force of Solar Sailing and Payload Limitations(55:58) - Maintaining Altitude vs Pointing at Solar Farms(59:14) - Attitude Control with Control Moment Gyros(01:02:44) - Desaturating Control Moment Gyros(01:05:21) - Monte Carlo Simulations for Constellation Design(01:11:00) - Monte Carlo Simulation 101(01:13:38) - Exciting Developments in Solar and Energy(01:22:17) - Sunlight as a Service Business Model(01:24:04) - Wrap Up and How to Learn More======Links:Christian Keil: https://twitter.com/pronounced_kyleBen Nowack: https://twitter.com/bennbuildsReflect Orbital: https://www.reflectorbital.com/First Principles:Reflectance: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ReflectanceSolar power: https://www.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/135642main_balance_trifold21.pdfRadiation pressure for solar sailing: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiation_pressure#:~:text=The%20assertion%20that%20light%2C%20as,and%20Gordon%20Ferrie%20Hull%20inCMG “control moment gyroscope“: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Control_moment_gyroscopeMonte Carlo simulation: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monte_Carlo_method======Production and marketing by The Deep View (https://thedeepview.co). For inquiries about sponsoring the podcast, email team@firstprinciples.fm======Checkout the video version here —> http://tinyurl.com/4fh497n9

rational vc Key Takeaways  People often underestimate the role of chance in their achievementsMild success can be explainable by skill, but wild success is attributable to variance In the long run, the “lucky” regress to the mean Understand Power Laws when investing; the wins of a few investments make up for the losses on many investments, and then some Survivorship Bias: the tendency to focus on successful individuals without considering those who failed due to random factors The probability of the loss must be judged in connection with the magnitude of the outcome; it is not the likelihood of an event that matters, but the magnitude of the outcome in connection with the likelihood of the event that does  Maximizing the probability of winning does not maximize the expected value from the game The confidence in which you make your decision is more important than the expected value that comes from that decision A mistake is not something to be determined after the fact, but in the light of the information until that point Read the full notes @ podcastnotes.orgEvery podcast episode we explore a Lindy book, and find ideas you can use in business and life. Join 3,000+ curious minds and avid readers @ rationalvc.com to get free access to essays and exclusive content. For the video version of episode click here.   Timestamps: (00:00) Intro / chit-chat (20:11) Randomness & Luck (24:46) Monte Carlo Simulation (31:09) Ergodicity (31:39) Hindsight Bias (38:00) Survivorship Bias (39:50) Asymmetric Bets / John & Nero (49:53) Skewness & Asymmetry (57:19) Pascal's Wager (1:00:53) Induction & Chaos Theory (1:03:22) Chapter 11 (1:08:45) System-1 vs System-2 Thinking (1:10:03) Satisficing (1:20:08) Normative vs Positive Thinking (1:25:52) Signal vs Noise (1:28:20) Heuristics (1:33:45) Final Part of Book (Part 3's Importance) (1:44:41) Favourite Quotes / Our Lives (2:06:11) Final Thoughts - Our website (all essays and podcasts): rationalvc.com  Our investment fund: rational.fund  Cyrus' Twitter: x.com/CyrusYari  Iman's Twitter: x.com/iman_olya -   Disclaimer: The materials provided are solely for informational or entertainment purposes and do not constitute investment or legal advice. All opinions expressed by hosts and guests are solely their own opinions and do not reflect the opinion of their employer(s). #Lindy #knowledge #books

rational vc Key Takeaways  People often underestimate the role of chance in their achievementsMild success can be explainable by skill, but wild success is attributable to variance In the long run, the “lucky” regress to the mean Understand Power Laws when investing; the wins of a few investments make up for the losses on many investments, and then some Survivorship Bias: the tendency to focus on successful individuals without considering those who failed due to random factors The probability of the loss must be judged in connection with the magnitude of the outcome; it is not the likelihood of an event that matters, but the magnitude of the outcome in connection with the likelihood of the event that does  Maximizing the probability of winning does not maximize the expected value from the game The confidence in which you make your decision is more important than the expected value that comes from that decision A mistake is not something to be determined after the fact, but in the light of the information until that point Read the full notes @ podcastnotes.orgEvery podcast episode we explore a Lindy book, and find ideas you can use in business and life. Join 3,000+ curious minds and avid readers @ rationalvc.com to get free access to essays and exclusive content. For the video version of episode click here.   Timestamps: (00:00) Intro / chit-chat (20:11) Randomness & Luck (24:46) Monte Carlo Simulation (31:09) Ergodicity (31:39) Hindsight Bias (38:00) Survivorship Bias (39:50) Asymmetric Bets / John & Nero (49:53) Skewness & Asymmetry (57:19) Pascal's Wager (1:00:53) Induction & Chaos Theory (1:03:22) Chapter 11 (1:08:45) System-1 vs System-2 Thinking (1:10:03) Satisficing (1:20:08) Normative vs Positive Thinking (1:25:52) Signal vs Noise (1:28:20) Heuristics (1:33:45) Final Part of Book (Part 3's Importance) (1:44:41) Favourite Quotes / Our Lives (2:06:11) Final Thoughts - Our website (all essays and podcasts): rationalvc.com  Our investment fund: rational.fund  Cyrus' Twitter: x.com/CyrusYari  Iman's Twitter: x.com/iman_olya -   Disclaimer: The materials provided are solely for informational or entertainment purposes and do not constitute investment or legal advice. All opinions expressed by hosts and guests are solely their own opinions and do not reflect the opinion of their employer(s). #Lindy #knowledge #books

Sometimes the equations we need to model reliability are just so complicated that we simply avoid them. Let's use Monte Carlo instead. The post Using Monte Carlo Simulation appeared first on Accendo Reliability.

A probability simulation technique used to understand the impact of risk and uncertainty in complex problems.

A probability simulation technique used to understand the impact of risk and uncertainty in complex problems.

Part of every profession is the jargon practitioners adopt. Having a language links people together and creates a sense of community. It also creates private gardens: a profession set off from those around it. Jargon is a form of secret handshake. Jargon is a two-edged sword, both gathering and excluding people. Be wary! We also have a visit from Susan Parente and her Not A Scrumdamentalist column. We discussed her recent mini-sabbatical. Stepping back has the power to clear your mind.  Slay Work Intake Chaos: Become a Master in 5 Weeks! Based on Tom Cagley and Jeremy WIllet's new book , learn to diagnose and solve work intake anti-patterns to stop drowning in work. Work intake is the biggest challenge facing organizations today. If you don't get work intake right, you won't be in business for very long. A 5-week cohort-based course, meeting weekly for an hour, includes teaching, peer feedback & discussion, feedback from the authors, time for Q&A, templates, and an electronic copy of our book, Mastering Work Intake: From Chaos to Predictable Delivery. Are you ready to commit?  Join our cohort-based workshop. The first cohort is starting on March 1st, 2024. Details at Re-read Saturday News This week we tackle two chapters of . We begin with Chapter 9 - VoP, VoC, and Predictability which sums up Section I, Variability and Predictability. Chapter 10, titled Monte Carlo Simulation, Revisited begins Section II, Advanced Monte Carlo Simulation and Predictability. Buy a copy and get reading – .   Week 1: – Week 2: – Week 3:   –   Week 4: – Week 5: –   Week 6: –   Week 7: –   Week 8: –   Week 9: –   Week 10: -    Next SPaMCAST  The Software Process and Measurement Cast 796 our conversation with Roger Turnau. Roger and I will delve deeply into prioritization using the cost of delay. Every organization and team I have ever worked with has a backlog of work and lots of people screaming that their piece of the backlog is the most important. Cost of delay is an important tool to filter out the noise.  

Podcast Mentions: FREE Portfolio Review, www.wealthnetinvest.com Wealth Beyond Numbers, www.lblmedia.net/workshop Welcome to the Market Call Show! This latest episode of the Market Call Show explains the best way to use Monte Carlo simulation, model different scenarios and make decisions with greater wisdom. The key is constructing the right asset blend, with stability, growth potential, and tax efficiency. This episode has insights on how to find your own "Moneyball" retirement strategy. In this week's episode, host Louis Llanes discusses: Why financial security & peace of mind are most people's biggest investment goals  How Monte Carlo simulation is used to model investment plans, and its pros and cons Limitations of Monte Carlo: Doesn't fully capture complex cash flows, equal failures Disconnect between Monte Carlo projections & client definitions of success  Having portfolio "players" with different roles: stability, growth, liquidity Social Media Links: Twitter: /LouisLlanes Linkedin: /LouisLlanes Facebook: /MarketCallShow or/WealthnetInvestments FREE Download chapter one of the Financial Freedom Blueprint to learn how to stay ahead of the herd.   Visit www.pathtorealwealth.com Schedule a call and free portfolio review www.wealthnetinvestments.com 1. Try the new RISK NUMBER SCORECARD Everyone has a risk number.  Let's find yours.  This tool can help you find YOUR personal risk number to have a peaceful investment journey – Click here   2. Read the Financial Freedom Blueprint:  7 Steps to Accelerate Your Path to Prosperity If you're ready to accelerate your path to prosperity, Financial Freedom Blueprint lays out a proven system for planning and investing to secure your financial independence. – Click here           You can also get a personalize signed hard cover copy – Click here 3. Work with me one-on-one If you would like to talk about planning and investing for your future. – Click here

Every podcast episode we explore a Lindy book, and find ideas you can use in business and life. Join 3,000+ curious minds and avid readers @ rationalvc.com to get free access to essays and exclusive content. For the video version of episode click here.   Timestamps: (00:00) Intro / chit-chat (20:11) Randomness & Luck (24:46) Monte Carlo Simulation (31:09) Ergodicity (31:39) Hindsight Bias (38:00) Survivorship Bias (39:50) Asymmetric Bets / John & Nero (49:53) Skewness & Asymmetry (57:19) Pascal's Wager (1:00:53) Induction & Chaos Theory (1:03:22) Chapter 11 (1:08:45) System-1 vs System-2 Thinking (1:10:03) Satisficing (1:20:08) Normative vs Positive Thinking (1:25:52) Signal vs Noise (1:28:20) Heuristics (1:33:45) Final Part of Book (Part 3's Importance) (1:44:41) Favourite Quotes / Our Lives (2:06:11) Final Thoughts - Our website (all essays and podcasts): rationalvc.com  Our investment fund: rational.fund  Cyrus' Twitter: x.com/CyrusYari  Iman's Twitter: x.com/iman_olya -   Disclaimer: The materials provided are solely for informational or entertainment purposes and do not constitute investment or legal advice. All opinions expressed by hosts and guests are solely their own opinions and do not reflect the opinion of their employer(s). #Lindy #knowledge #books

You might have heard of Monte Carlo simulation. This might sound advanced, or challenging, or beyond your skills. It's not! In fact, Monte Carlo simulation can do a really good job of modeling really, really complex things really easily. Want to learn more? Listen to this podcast. The post SOR 923 When to do Monte Carlo appeared first on Accendo Reliability.

Economics 101 for Real World Business AZ TRT S04 EP48 (211) 12-3-2023   What We Learned This Week: Supply & Demand - Economics Simplified Capital Allocation - What is the Opportunity of your Business Investment? Gamblers Fallacy - What is the Probability of the Next Die Roll? Game Theory - Dr. Nash's Plan to Pickup Women     Notes: EK 101 – Economics Lessons     Seg. 1 Supply & Demand Supply is the amount of a specific good or service that's available in the market. Demand is the amount of the good or service that customers want to buy. Supply and demand are both influenced by the price of goods and services. If there was only one pizza restaurant in a town and then a new pizza place opened, the demand for pizza from the first restaurant would drop. The price of gasoline often changes with the demand throughout the year. As people drive more in the summer, gasoline prices tend to rise. In professional football, owners sell entertainment (supply) and spectators buy the opportunity to view or display the game (demand). Meanwhile, owners also buy the services of athletes who wish to play (demand) and trained athletes make themselves available for a price (supply).   Marginal Utility What Is Marginal Utility? Marginal utility is the added satisfaction that a consumer gets from having one more unit of a good or service. The concept of marginal utility is used by economists to determine how much of an item consumers are willing to purchase. Sports David Beckham signed $250 mil contract in 2007 w LA Galaxy Galaxy willing to overpay to get the attention, ticket and merchandize sales What we will pay at the margin? There is only 1 Beckham, rare commodity, like a diamond – subjective on the value What is the value of a bottle of water in the desert?  If only 1, then pay a lot, if there are 50 available, then pay less     Seg. 2 Capital Allocation – Capital Allocation is the process of distributing financial resources to different areas of a business to increase efficiency and maximize profits.   A Sunk Cost refers to money that has already been spent and which cannot be recovered. In business, the axiom that one has to “spend money to make money” is reflected in the phenomenon of the sunk cost. A sunk cost differs from future (or regular) costs that a business may face, such as decisions about inventory purchase costs or product pricing.    Sunk Costs also mean that the Money $ used on a bad investment is lost. Don't try to ‘chase it' to somehow recover and get even. Instead, just write it off, and move on.  It is better to use the New Money $ on better investments. Where to Invest your money $ is pivital to Capital Allocation. Simply put, learn to Control Your Capital and decide wisely what Opportunity (Cost)  it should go to be as efficient as possible. This is the intersection of scarcity and choice.   Opportunity Cost is the loss or gain of making a decision, the forgone benefit that would have been derived by an option not chosen. To properly evaluate opportunity costs, the costs and benefits of every option available must be considered and weighed against the others. Famous Phrase – “idle cash balances represent an opportunity cost in terms of lost interest”   Whether your time or money can be better spent on something else   Should you mow your own lawn, or hire someone and concentrate on your job to make more $   Division of Labor We do not cut our own hair, or drill our own teeth – we go to a dental specialist, saves time & $ over long term Concentrate on your specialties Pencil example – one co make wood, one makes eraser, one mines the graphite, and one co assemblies – we all benefit as it would be harder and cost more if same company did it all, suppliers w/ specialty help keep costs down     In Stock Investing – Beware the Zombie Co.s in the S&P Index.   These are companies that are not profitable, or growing (may even need a Bailout). They are just treading water, and paying their interest on debt, but not their principal. In the current S&P index, it is estimated that about 20% of companies are Zombie Co's whose main investment comes from people buying the whole Index.   Unfortunately another 30% of the Index are bad companies that are either are stagnant, or on their way to Zombie status. Maybe 10 – 15% of the Companies (Stocks) in the Index (50 – 75 Co's) are really good to exceptional and should get your Capital.    Do you want to own the best house on the block? Or all of them?         Seg. 3   Gamblers Fallacy each roll of the die is separate from the last, no effect   The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy, occurs when an individual erroneously believes that a certain random event is less likely or more likely to happen based on the outcome of a previous event or series of events.   For example, the gambler's fallacy might cause someone to believe that if a coin just landed on heads twice in a row, then it's “due” to land on tails on the next toss.     Monte Carlo Simulation – use for modeling scenarios   One simple example of a Monte Carlo Simulation is to consider calculating the probability of rolling two standard dice. There are 36 combinations of dice rolls. Based on this, you can manually compute the probability of a particular outcome.   Monte Carlo Simulation is a mathematical method for calculating the odds of multiple possible outcomes occurring in an uncertain process through repeated random sampling. This computational algorithm makes assessing risks associated with a particular process convenient, thereby enabling better decision-making.   Probabilities   Probability is simply how likely something is to happen. Whenever we're unsure about the outcome of an event, we can talk about the probabilities of certain outcomes—how likely they are. The analysis of events governed by probability is called statistics.   Sports analytics is a more recent field that uses data to measure areas like athletic performance and business health to optimize the processes and success of a sports organization as a whole. On-field data metrics help teams decide how to improve in-game strategies, nutrition plans and other methods for raising their athletes' level of performance. Off the field, organizations can leverage data to monitor ticket sales, craft marketing campaigns and reduce operational costs.   Data lets teams and organizations track performance, make predictions and make smarter decisions on the field. Want to figure out what play is best to run on fourth down in a football game? Check the analytics. Wondering whether or not your pitcher should throw another inning? Check the analytics. Players still win games, but data allows coaches to put them in the best position to succeed.       Seg. 4 Game Theory – science of human strategy, people behave differently in games Dr. Nash – A Beautiful Mind If they all go for the same girl in the bar, competition and no one gets her, but if they work together and pair off with the group of girls, they all may win As Nash explains it, if all the men approach the blonde first, none of the men will pair off: The blonde will reject them all as a crowd, and her brunette friends will reject them all individually because none of the women will accept being second choice to her friend. While used in several disciplines, game theory is most notably used as a tool within the study of business and economics. The "games" may involve how two competitor firms will react to price cuts by the other, whether a firm should acquire another, or how traders in a stock market may react to price changes.   Prisoners Dilemma The prisoner's dilemma presents a situation where two parties, separated and unable to communicate, must each choose between cooperating with the other or not. The highest reward for each party occurs when both parties choose to co-operate. Keep your mouth shut and tell the cops nothing, both walk   Cold War Example If both combatants do nothing, everyone lives, or mutual destruction with nuclear war War Games movie – no winner in hundreds of simulated games     Business Topic: HERE   Investing Topic: https://brt-show.libsyn.com/category/investing More - BRT Best of: https://brt-show.libsyn.com/category/Best+Of   Thanks for Listening. Please Subscribe to the BRT Podcast.     AZ Tech Roundtable 2.0 with Matt Battaglia The show where Entrepreneurs, Top Executives, Founders, and Investors come to share insights about the future of business.  AZ TRT 2.0 looks at the new trends in business, & how classic industries are evolving.  Common Topics Discussed: Startups, Founders, Funds & Venture Capital, Business, Entrepreneurship, Biotech, Blockchain / Crypto, Executive Comp, Investing, Stocks, Real Estate + Alternative Investments, and more…    AZ TRT Podcast Home Page: http://aztrtshow.com/ ‘Best Of' AZ TRT Podcast: Click Here Podcast on Google: Click Here Podcast on Spotify: Click Here                    More Info: https://www.economicknight.com/azpodcast/ KFNX Info: https://1100kfnx.com/weekend-featured-shows/     Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this program are those of the Hosts, Guests and Speakers, and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of any entities they represent (or affiliates, members, managers, employees or partners), or any Station, Podcast Platform, Website or Social Media that this show may air on. All information provided is for educational and entertainment purposes. Nothing said on this program should be considered advice or recommendations in: business, legal, real estate, crypto, tax accounting, investment, etc. Always seek the advice of a professional in all business ventures, including but not limited to: investments, tax, loans, legal, accounting, real estate, crypto, contracts, sales, marketing, other business arrangements, etc.  

Powerful computer programs are accurately simulating the uncertainty of climate change. These models underlie the growing business of climate risk, which in turn supports mitigation planning and the insurance industry. But climate risk models are usually large monolithic systems, which although internally consistent, cannot export statistically coherent representations of the underlying uncertainties. Because of this, the outputs are often single average risk scores resulting in the Flaw of Averages, a family of well documented mathematical errors. We propose open standards for conveying the results of climate models, based on the discipline of probability management, which will embed the uncertainty, including statistical dependence in auditable, cross-platform data. This will provide two major benefits. First, it will allow monolithic climate models to be disaggregated into manageable parts. Second, it will allow the results of disparate models of both hazards and impacts to be combined in numerous ways. In short, it will improve the measurement of environmental risk at any scale.  Host Jack Russo and Professor Sam Savage of Stanford University discuss the use of probability management to create a new more Coherent Climate Calculus to effectively assess economic risks relating to climate change and toward the creation of entirely new climate finance marketplaces.   Want to learn more about probability management from Prof. Sam Savage? Check out his site www.probabilitymanagement.org  

Climate change is a universal crisis, but the way we assess everything related to this crisis is problematic in itself. By definition, Risk = Likelihood x Impact (or Probability x Liability) which seems to be a straightforward way to measure whether or not you would need something like fire insurance for your home. Today host Jack Russo and Professor Sam Savage discuss why this method of risk assessment is actually horribly flawed in this nutshell version about climate risk.   Click here to learn more about probability and climate risk: https://www.probabilitymanagement.org/

Are you worried about the future of your business? In today's volatile market, it pays to be in the know. Predict your financial future with these top forecasting techniques from Online Accounting Tips. Learn more at https://onlineaccountingtips.com/forecasting-techniques-predicting-future-financial-performance/ Online Accounting Tips City: New York Address: 60 W 23rd St Website https://onlineaccountingtips.com/ Phone +1-877-675-4340 Email scott.hall@betteronlineinfo.com

I'm thrilled to share with you some highlights from my recent podcast episode where I had an engaging conversation with Patrick, a seasoned professor of commercial real estate finance and the founder of his own consultancy.The Hustle of Real Estate: Patrick's journey in the real estate business is nothing short of inspiring. With two decades of experience, he's seen it all - from mastering the income aspect of deals to understanding how to put debt and equity together. His story is a testament to the fact that every day in real estate is different and exciting, with new deals and opportunities constantly arising.The Power of Dry Powder: In our volatile real estate market, Patrick highlighted the importance of "dry powder" - capital that can help navigate through the ups and downs. He believes that his expertise and connections can be particularly beneficial in less sophisticated markets.The Potential for Change: We discussed the possibility of a massive market shift, similar to the 2007-2008 financial crisis. Patrick believes that distressed funds are actively looking for opportunities to buy non-performing loans, and there's a need for recapitalization due to the spike in interest rates.The Role of Risk and Big Data: Patrick shared his insights on how he incorporates statistical analysis and big data analytics into his work. He emphasized the importance of capturing tail risk and using tools like Monte Carlo simulations to make informed decisions.Niche Asset Classes: Patrick believes that niche asset classes such as data centers, student housing, and charter schools offer less volatility and a non-cyclical income stream. He's excited about the potential of infrastructure capital and its penetration into these esoteric asset classes.Consultancy Services: Patrick's consultancy, Nest and Associates, works with owner operators looking to scale their businesses and raise funds from institutions. He stressed the importance of scalability, geographic presence, continuity of the executive team, and a defined investment strategy in attracting capital.Apropos Podcast: Patrick's podcast, "Apropos," covers topics relevant to finance and the financial markets. He plans to invite guests to discuss data centers and diversity, equity, and inclusion in the industry.Research and Collaboration: Patrick is currently collaborating with CFA New York and conducting research at a university, exploring the relationship between the space market and the transaction market in commercial real estate.I hope these insights spark your curiosity and entice you to listen to the full podcast episode. It's filled with valuable lessons, ideas, and curiosities that I'm sure you'll find intriguing.Next Steps Share your thoughts with a review - https://www.thedealscout.com/reviews/ Let's connect on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/joshuabrucewilson/ Subscribe and Watch on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCBQN_Y3nhDGClfMxCSBDjOg

Mitten im Crash richtig zu handeln ist für die meisten Menschen eine enorme Herausforderung. Damit Emotionen nicht überhand nehmen, ist es sinnvoll, eine persönliche Finanzstrategie, einen Finanzplan zu entwerfen. Wie so etwas gelingen kann, schildert Markus Engelmann, CFP® von ABATUS Vermögensmanagement. ⌚ Timestamps: (0:00) Intro (0:37) — Beginn der Präsentation — (2:37) Vorstellung & Agenda (6:11) Inhalte der Finanzplanung (17:49) Aktives Portfoliomanagement (23:52) Unruhige Zeiten (27:00) Der Plan für den Crash (36:08) Umsetzung (39:28) — Beginn der Q&A-Session — (40:02) Dreht sich Finanzplanung im Crash hauptsächlich um Diversifikation & Anlagehorizont? (42:18) Kann man Risikoneigung mit Tests bestimmen? (44:26) Meinung zu aktiven Absicherungsstrategien? (46:22) Wie ist der Umgang mit Immobilienfragen? (48:35) Wie geht man mit einem Inflationsumfeld um? (50:40) Was ist Ihre Meinung zu Gold & Bitcoin? (52:40) Was sind elementare Fragen des Tests? (57:02) Abschließende Worte

Episode 8. This is the first in a series of episodes dedicated to model validation. Today, we focus on model robustness and resilience. From complex financial systems to why your gym might be overcrowded at New Year's, you've been directly affected by these aspects of model validation.AI hype and consumer trust (0:03) FTC article highlights consumer concerns about AI's impact on lives and businesses (Oct 3, FTC)Increased public awareness of AI and the masses of data needed to train it led to increased awareness of potential implications for misuse.Need for transparency and trust in AI's development and deployment.Model validation and its importance in AI development (3:42)Importance of model validation in AI development, ensuring models are doing what they're supposed to do.FTC's heightened awareness of responsibility and the need for fair and unbiased AI practices.Model validation (targeted, specific) vs model evaluation (general, open-ended).Model validation and resilience in machine learning (8:26)Collaboration between engineers and businesses to validate models for resilience and robustness.Resilience: how well a model handles adverse data scenarios.Robustness: model's ability to generalize to unforeseen data.Aerospace Engineering: models must be resilient and robust to perform well in real-world environments.Statistical evaluation and modeling in machine learning (14:09)Statistical evaluation involves modeling distribution without knowing everything, using methods like Monte Carlo sampling.Monte Carlo simulations originated in physics for assessing risk and uncertainty in decision-making.Monte Carlo methods for analyzing model robustness and resilience (17:24)Monte Carlo simulations allow exploration of potential input spaces and estimation of underlying distribution.Useful when analytical solutions are unavailable.Sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis as major flavors of analyses.Monte Carlo techniques and model validation (21:31)Versatility of Monte Carlo simulations in various fields.Using Monte Carlo experiments to explore semantic space vectors of language models like GPT.Importance of validating machine learning models through negative scenario analysis.Stress testing and resiliency in finance and engineering (25:48)Importance of stress testing in finance, combining traditional methods with Monte Carlo techniques.Synthetic data's potential in modeling critical systems.Identifying potential gaps and vulnerabilities in critical systems.Using operations research and model validation in AI development (30:13)Operations research can help find an equilibrium in overcrowding in gyms.Robust methods for solving complex problems in logistics and hWhat did you think? Let us know.Do you have a question or a discussion topic for the AI Fundamentalists? Connect with them to comment on your favorite topics: LinkedIn - Episode summaries, shares of cited articles, and more. YouTube - Was it something that we said? Good. Share your favorite quotes. Visit our page - see past episodes and submit your feedback! It continues to inspire future episodes.

Do you have your retirement money in a ROTH or a Traditional retirement account? Which one is right for YOU? You can find a lot of information on ROTH vs Traditional throughout the internet, but this episode covers the topic with a concise depth unique to HopeFilled. Find out the pros and cons of each one in Episode 38 of the HopeFilled Financial Podcast. If you have always wondered which one you should have your retirement money in, this is the episode for you! In the today's story, Jay shares an idea for teaching toddlers delayed gratification - will it work? How can you delay gratification in order to build your retirement savings? Is delayed gratification something you were explicitly taught? Let use know in the comments! The budget tip of the day is to make your savings goals F.A.S.T! Frugal, Achievable, Specific, and Trackable! Are your savings goals F.A.S.T? Our listener question asks what to do when your employer cancels your pension! This can feel like a heavy topic, but it is a reality for many. Do you understand how to run the numbers to compare your options? Do you know the difference between a terminated pension vs a frozen pension plan? Please don't forget to like, share, and subscribe! Doing so helps us grow and share HopeFilled financial wisdom. We release a new full episode every Tuesday! Disclaimer: This podcast serves as educational entertainment only. Any and all opinions relating to real estate, law, taxes, insurance, and/or securities investing that may be contained within this podcast should not be interpreted or implemented as recommendations nor advice. The opinions related to these topics – especially those regulated by state and/or federal entities – should never be taken as replacement for advice from a competent, licensed professional. HopeFilled Financial Coaching is not liable for any individual acting on any understanding of topics directly or indirectly related to real estate, legal practice, taxes, insurance, or investing even if an individual in question changed their understanding after listening to this podcast. All listeners are entirely responsible for seeking advice from licensed professionals before taking any action of their own. Our Website: HopeFilledFinancial.com Music: "Take Me Higher" by Jahzzar Music Copyright License: This music is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/b... or send a letter to Creative Commons, PO Box 1866, Mountain View, CA 94042, USA.

In this @agileuprising panel episode, Prateek Singh @singhpr, Andy Cleff @justsitthere, Ben Rodilitz BenRodilitz, and Colleen Johnson @scrumhive chat about applying #agile thinking to earned value management. #EVM, a project management technique used in measuring performance, progress, and risk, relies on calculations based on detailed and accurate upfront planning. The coexistence of Agile (which is dynamic by design) and EVM requires a tailored approach. Could abandoning deterministic #estimates combined with #probabilistic #forecasting - think Monte Carlo Simulations - be the key to success? If you'd like to see a video version: Links About the Agile Uprising If you enjoyed this episode, please give us a review, a rating, or leave comments on iTunes, Stitcher or your podcasting platform of choice. It really helps others find us.  If you'd like to join the discussion and share your stories,  please jump into the fray at our  We at the Agile Uprising are committed to being totally free.  However, if you'd like to contribute and help us defray hosting and production costs we do have a .  Who knows, you might even get some surprises in the mail!  

Join us in this episode as we dive deep into the world of project management and explore the intricate art of making precise project predictions. Work estimation has always been a challenge, but we've got a powerful tool in our arsenal - the Monte Carlo simulation.Discover how this mathematical technique, grounded in historical data and random simulations, can revolutionize the way you forecast project outcomes. We'll explore its applications in Lean and Agile project management, where certainty and throughput are paramount.We'll answer two fundamental questions:How many tasks can you realistically complete within a specific timeframe?When can you expect to finish a predetermined number of work items?Learn how to harness the Monte Carlo simulation's capabilities to boost your project management skills and achieve continuous improvement. Say goodbye to guesswork and hello to data-driven predictions. Don't miss this insightful episode! Find us here: www.agileleanireland.org

What if you could invest in the stock market but not risk losing money? Yes, yes, your alarm bells should be ringing! But that's exactly what some new funds claim to offer. We take a hard look at structured products and buffer ETFs and ask if they really make sense for investors. And in today's Dumb Question of the Week: What is Monte Carlo Simulation? Get in touch

Financial wellbeing is a term frequently mentioned, but what does it really mean? Bud Kasper and Logan DeGreave dive into the concept of financial wellbeing and explore its various aspects on this episode of America's Wealth Management Show. From measuring financial success to the importance of planning, we will provide insights and tips to help you achieve financial wellbeing in your life. More on this episode: https://modwm.com/what-is-financial-wellbeing/?utm_source=AWMS-Pod&utm_medium=AWMS&utm_campaign=financial-wellbeing Charles Schwab Modern Wealth Survey: https://content.schwab.com/web/retail/public/about-schwab/schwab_modern_wealth_survey_2023_findings.pdf Maximize Social Security Benefits: https://youtu.be/r2mb_UpN-lw What Is a Monte Carlo Simulation?: https://www.modwm.com/what-is-a-monte-carlo-simulation/?utm_source=AWMS-Pod&utm_medium=AWMS&utm_campaign=financial-wellbeing What DIYers Overlook in Retirement Planning: https://youtu.be/wCMssTo_6mg 6 Things the Wealthy Do With Their Money (That Most People Don't): https://youtu.be/srUQOyKwMnk Retirement Lifestyle: What's Right for You?: https://youtu.be/aOpArKlSlmg 8 Tips on Saving for Retirement: https://youtu.be/ekjLc-wWNLI Must-Knows for Couples Retirement Planning: https://youtu.be/wCMssTo_6mg Retirement Plan Checklist: https://www.modwm.com/retirement-plan-checklist/?utm_source=AWMS-Pod&utm_medium=AWMS&utm_campaign=financial-wellbeing See Our Calendar: https://modwm.com/radio-show/complimentary-consultation/?utm_source=AWMS-Pod&utm_medium=AWMS&utm_campaign=financial-wellbeing Start Planning: https://www.modwm.com/retirement-planning-tool/radio/?utm_source=AWMS-Pod&utm_medium=AWMS&utm_campaign=financial-wellbeing Check out our other podcast! The Guided Retirement Show: https://www.youtube.com/c/theguidedretirementshow

In this episode we answer emails from Thirsty Horse, Alexi (a/k/a "the Dude") and Mark.  We discuss our charity, assorted Monte Carlo simulations on Portfolio Visualizer and data sources, rebalancing of leveraged portfolios and the choice of leverage (follow up on Episode 259), Flight of the Conchords, and the pitfalls of trying to use valuation metrics as crystal balls.And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the seven sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.Additional links:Become a Patron and Support our Charity:  Risk Parity Radio | creating A Podcast | PatreonMonte Carlo Analysis of basic Golden Ratio portfolio back to 1994:  https://tinyurl.com/mswkra9cMonte Carlo Analysis of Golden Ratio portfolio back to the 1970s:  https://tinyurl.com/hzd6xfttPortfolio Charts Retirement Spending Calculator: RETIREMENT SPENDING – Portfolio Charts Michael Kitces Optimized Rebalancing Articles:  Optimal Rebalancing – Time Horizons Vs Tolerance Bands (kitces.com)Aswath Damodaran on Long View Podcast:  Aswath Damodaran: A Valuation Expert's Take on Inflation, Stock Buybacks, ESG, and More | MorningstarAswath Damodaran/Equity Risk Premium: Damodaran On-line Home Page (nyu.edu)Errant 2013 Paper re 4% Rule:  delivery.php (ssrn.com)Kitces CAPE Ratio Article 2014:  Shiller PE: Bad Market Timing, Good Retirement Planning (kitces.com)Kitces CAPE Ratio Article 2016:  Reducing Retirement Return Assumptions For High Valuation? (kitces.com)Support the show

Want to get your hands on our 7 Wealth Building Rules? Click here: https://elliottwealth.com/wealthPart 2 of 3 In The Science of Money SeriesDiscussion Topics Include:Net Worth StatementRetirement Income PlanningMonte Carlo SimulationIf you haven't checked out our episode on Money Math - Part 1 of the Science of Money Series, Watch it here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YBSpnzfONYUStay Tuned for Part 2 on the Psychology of MoneyRate & review the Simply Financial Podcast on ITunes

Want to get your hands on our 7 Wealth Building Rules? Click here: https://elliottwealth.com/wealthPart 2 of 3 In The Science of Money SeriesDiscussion Topics Include:Net Worth StatementRetirement Income PlanningMonte Carlo SimulationIf you haven't checked out our episode on Money Math - Part 1 of the Science of Money Series, Watch it here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YBSpnzfONYUStay Tuned for Part 2 on the Psychology of MoneyRate & review the Simply Financial Podcast on ITunes

In this episode, we take a detailed look at Monte Carlo simulation and how it is used in retirement planning. The look at the inputs that are used, how the simulation works and how to interpret the results. We also discuss some of the limitations of the process, how to calculate expected market returns to use in the simulation, the importance of properly framing the results and a lot more. SEE LATEST EPISODES ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.validea.com/the-education-of-a-financial-planner-podcast⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.valideacapital.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://sunpointeinvestments.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/practicalquant⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW MATT Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/cultishcreative⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-zeigler-a58a0a60/⁠

Do Monte Carlo simulations cause more harm than good? David Macchia, Retirement Income Strategist,  Entrepreneur, and Founder of Wealth2k explores this topic and more today. We cover the politics of pay, why "sales" seems like a dirty word, and our upcoming Retiretech 2.0 conference in NYC. Links mentioned: https://www.linkedin.com/in/macchia/ https://www.fa-mag.com/news/why-monte-carlo-simulations-for-retirement-income-should-be-banned-71909.html?print https://imagine.nfg.com/retiretech-forum-2-0/

 What is the Monte-Carlo Simulation – and how can it help your portfolio? Danny breaks down the difference between the tactic and the tool before diving into the reasons you should be wary of any Social Security Lump-Sum offerings, who really comes out on top in the almighty Technicals versus Fundamentals debate, and the […] The post The Monte-Carlo Simulation | Your Money Podcast – Episode 437 appeared first on Revere Asset Management.

This week we're pleased to bring you a special “State of Retirement Income” episode, which we recorded live at the annual Morningstar Investment Conference held recently in Chicago, Illinois. For this discussion, we turn the tables on Christine, who is part of an expert retirement planning panel that also includes David Blanchett, managing director and head of retirement research at PGIM DC Solutions, and Karsten Jeske, the founder of Early Retirement Now. Both were guests on past episodes of The Long View.In this panel discussion, recorded before a live audience, we delve into a number of retirement-planning topics, including the impact of inflation on spending patterns; the implications of the recent selloff on asset allocation; sequence-of-returns risk; optimal Social Security-claiming practices; the role and importance of guaranteed income sources; and a lot more. Without further ado, please enjoy this special episode of The Long View.Background“Karsten Jeske: Cracking the Code on Retirement Spending Rates,” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, Oct. 14, 2020.Karsten Jeske's blog, Early Retirement NowKarsten Jeske's bioDavid Blanchett's bio“David Blanchett: If You're Retiring Now, You're in a Pretty Rough Spot,” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, Sept. 18, 2019.“Christine Benz and John Rekenthaler: How Much Can You Safely Spend in Retirement?” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, Dec. 21, 2021.Inflation“How Much Should You Worry About Inflation in Retirement?” by Christine Benz, Morningstar.com, March 26, 2021.“Exploring the Retirement Consumption Puzzle,” by David Blanchett, financialplanningassociation.org, May 2014.Safe Withdrawal RatesThe Trinity Study“The Safe Withdrawal Rate Series—A Guide for First-Time Readers,” by Karsten Jeske, EarlyRetirementNow.com, Nov. 15, 2021.“The State of Retirement Income: Safe Withdrawal Rates,” by Christine Benz, Jeffrey Ptak, and John Rekenthaler, Morningstar.com, November 2021.“What's a Safe Retirement Spending Rate for the Decades Ahead?” by Christine Benz and John Rekenthaler, Morningstar.com, Nov. 11, 2021.“Drawdown From Financial Accounts in Retirement,” Vanguard Research by Thomas J. De Luca and Anna Madamba, vanguard.com, July 2021.Retirement Portfolio Construction“Cliff Asness: Value Stocks Still Look Like a Bargain,” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, May 31, 2022.“Bonds May Be Down, But Some Annuity Payouts Are Up,” by David Blanchett, thinkadvisor.com, May 13, 2022.“Inflation at 7%! Here's Why I'm Not Running for the Hills (Yet)!” by Karsten Jeske, earlyretirementnow.com, Jan. 13, 2022.“The Bucket Approach to Retirement Allocation,” by Christine Benz, Morningstar.com, Jan. 25, 2021.Christine Benz's model bucket portfoliosHarold EvenskyWhat Is a Monte Carlo Simulation?Guaranteed Income and Social Security“Guaranteed Income: A License to Spend,” by David Blanchett and Michael Finke, papers.ssrn.com, June 28, 2021.Open Social SecurityOther“Laura Carstensen: ‘I'm Suggesting We Change the Way We Work,'” The Long View podcast, Morningstar.com, Sept. 14, 2021.“Eight Centuries of Global Real Interest Rates, R-G, and the ‘Suprasecular' Decline, 1311-2018,” by Paul Schmelzing, bankofengland.co.uk, January 2020.

When people talk about Agile you'll hear them talk about certain ideas, topics, or “laws” that are just mentioned as if they were universally known truths, almost like gravity. In “Agile Physics - the Math of Flow”, a new FREE course offered by Troy Magennis, you can start to learn the math behind some of these truths. The course focuses on a number of these ideas and breaks them down in a way that provides clarity on why they are considered to be true. What I found in going through the course was that even with subjects I felt deeply schooled in, the way Troy breaks things down helped me see some of the basic concepts that I had not totally grokked. In this interview, Troy joins me to explain why he developed the course, how it works, and the tools he provides to add clarity to the concepts. Later in the interview (21:30), we also discuss Monte Carlo Simulation. Until recently, my understanding of Monte Carlo Simulation was based on what I learned early in my PMP journey, and what I saw from vendors demo'ing their Monte Carlo tools in the early 2000s. My understanding of Monte Carlo is now very different. Troy was kind enough to walk me through how it actually works, the benefits it provides, and why what I originally learned about it is no longer a “thing”. Agile Physics - The Math of Flow - https://learn.focusedobjective.com/collections Contacting Troy Web: https://www.focusedobjective.com/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/troymagennis/ Email: troy.magennis@focusedobjective.com Twitter: https://twitter.com/t_magennis

Explanation of Monte Carlo simulation in retirement planningLinks in this episode:Facebook group - Taxes in RetirementYouTube channel - Retirement Planning DemystifiedNewsletter - Retirement Planning Insights

Monte Carlo simulations have been around for quite a while in classical computing. They help companies model potential outcomes of a broad range of “what if” scenarios. Since 2015, the quantum computing industry has believed Monte Carlo simulations would be one of the best use cases to show quantum advantage. QC Ware was able to prove the feasibility of this approach recently, working with Goldman Sachs. And now they want to share that field-tested approach, along with other use cases, in a powerful tool. Join host Konstantinos Karagiannis and Yianni Gamvros from QC Ware for a chat about how to get access to proven, reusable quantum code.For more on QC Ware visit www.qcware.com/.Visit Protiviti at www.protiviti.com/postquantum to learn more about how Protiviti is helping organizations get post-quantum ready.Follow host Konstantinos Karagiannis on Twitter and Instagram: @KonstantHacker and follow Protiviti Technology on LinkedIn and Twitter: @ProtivitiTech. Questions and comments are welcome! Theme song by David Schwartz, copyright 2021.

Take a few seconds to leave us a review. It really helps! https://apple.co/2RIsbZ2 if you do it and send us proof, we'll give you a shoutout on the show.(1:25) - From Unwanted Gum To Sought After Shoes: Gumdrop collects used gum from bins placed strategically around cities along with unwanted gum from manufacturers like wrigley and upcycles them to make desirable products like the iconic Adidas Stan Smith shoes. (8:40) - PANDA Will Reduce Embodied Carbon By 40% For Construction: PANDA is a software solution developed by Price & Myers to address the ever rigorous legislation being passed which urges corporations to be more environmentally conscious. The software's Monte Carlo algorithm will determine the least carbon intensive and affordable configurations based on a builders input promising embodied carbon savings of up to 40%.(16:30) - Is it a boat? Is it a plane? It's a ground effect vehicle!: REGENT is making waves in the transportation industry by introducing a ground effect vehicle fully powered by electric propulsion that can transport people 6x faster than ferries within a 180 mile range at a maximum speed of 180 miles per hour while offering the same level of safety as an aircraft. --About the podcast:Every day, some of the most innovative universities, companies, and individual technology developers share their knowledge on Wevolver. To ensure we can also provide this knowledge for the growing group of podcast listeners, we started a collaboration with two young engineers, Daniel Scott Mitchell & Farbod Moghaddam who discuss the most interesting content in this podcast series. To learn more about this show, please visit the shows page. By following the page, you will get automatic updates by email when a new show is published.Be sure to give us a follow and review on Apple podcasts, Spotify, and most of your favorite podcast platforms!

How much do we need to revise our assessment of Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal after their early losses in Monte Carlo this year? Carl Bialik and I discuss the week that was in the principality from many angles, starting with those two key upsets. Is Stefanos Tsitsipas now the biggest threat to Nadal at Roland Garros? Has Djokovic fallen back to the pack? Has Rafa lost a step? Is Dan Evans someone worth watching on clay now? Can a slice backhand ever be a weapon on a slow surface? What can flat hitters do to overcome their disadvantage on clay? We have lots of questions, and offer at least a few potential answers.

In this episode, Mary Lyons, the Wealth Woman, and Eric Alexander, Benchmark Income Group, discuss the Monte Carlo simulations. This simulation is used to model the probability of different outcomes in a process that cannot easily be predicted due to random variables' intervention. It is a technique used to understand the impact of risk and uncertainty in prediction and forecasting models. Due to technical issues, the video will only be of Mary. 

In this episode, Trishul and Aaron take a deep dive into the 4% rule and how it applies to FIRE. They discuss the inputs and analysis that went into the academic safe withdrawal rate research and that if you understand these inputs, you can start to make adjustments to your personal situation. The 4% rule was never designed to be a Holy Grail of retirement research, but rather a rule of thumb that still required ongoing planning. In fact, a forward-looking Monte Carlo simulation may be more helpful to most individuals.Episode DescriptionFinancial Independence Retire Early WebsiteTrinity StudyDetermining Withdrawal Rates Using Historical DataThe Shockingly Simple Math Behind Early RetirementPodcast Description Welcome to The Mind Money Spectrum Podcast where your hosts Aaron Agte and Trishul Patel go beyond traditional finance questions to help you explore how to use your money to achieve the freedom you want in life. Aaron is a Financial Planner from the Bay Area, and Trishul is a Wealth Manager on the East Coast. For more information about Aaron, check out GraystoneAdvisor.com. And for more information on Trishul check out InvestingForever.com. We thank you all for listening, and stay tuned for our latest episode on our website, MindMoneySpectrum.com.

http://retirementoptimizer.com/ --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/josh-scandlen-podcast/support

Rob Black talks about wills, Millennial home buying, and the Monte Carlo Simulation.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Monte Carlo simulations are amazing tools to use a set of variables to predict the behaviour of a system. Today, I talk about a simple example to estimate the value of pi using this method.