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Pratap Bhanu Mehta is Senior Fellow at the Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi and Laurence Rockefeller Visiting Professor for Distinguished Teaching at Princeton University. In this week's conversation, Yascha Mounk and Pratap Mehta discuss nationalism, radical forms of self-identity, and the likelihood of war between India and Pakistan. Note: The first part of this conversation was recorded on April 30, 2025 with a follow up on May 12, 2025. Podcast production by Mickey Freeland and Leonora Barclay. Connect with us! Spotify | Apple | Google X: @Yascha_Mounk & @JoinPersuasion YouTube: Yascha Mounk, Persuasion LinkedIn: Persuasion Community Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Data is apolitical and always useful, right? Then why is the caste census so controversial? Pranay Kotasthane and Raghu S Jaitley join Amit Varma in episode 417 of The Seen and the Unseen to discuss its history, context and implications. (FOR FULL LINKED SHOW NOTES, GO TO SEENUNSEEN.IN.) Also check out: 1. Pranay Kotasthane on Twitter, LinkedIn, Amazon and the Takshashila Institution. 2. Anticipating the Unintended — Pranay Kotasthane and Raghu Sanjaylal Jaitley's newsletter. 3. Missing In Action: Why You Should Care About Public Policy — Pranay Kotasthane and Raghu S Jaitley. 4. Puliyabaazi — Pranay Kotasthane's podcast (with Saurabh Chandra & Khyati Pathak). 5. The Long Road From Neeyat to Neeti — Episode 313 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Pranay Kotasthane & Raghu S Jaitley). 6. Pranay Kotasthane Talks Public Policy — Episode 233 of The Seen and the Unseen. 7. Raghu Sanjaylal Jaitley's Father's Scooter — Episode 214 of The Seen and the Unseen. 8. All episodes of The Seen and the Unseen w Pranay Kotasthane: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13. 9. Some Slopes Are Slippery For Real -- RSJ and Pranay's last debate (Sep 2024) on the caste census. 10. जातीय जनगणना होनी चाहिए या नहीं? -- The Puliyabaazi episode (May 2023) on the caste census. 11. Other posts of Pranay and RSJ's newsletter that touch on this subject: 1, 2, 3. 12. Look Beyond Quotas for Equality -- Pranay Kotasthane and Nitin Pai. 13. Caste, Capitalism and Chandra Bhan Prasad — Episode 296 of The Seen and the Unseen. 14. Early Indians — Tony Joseph. 15. Tony Joseph's episode on The Seen and the Unseen. 16. Who We Are and How We Got Here — David Reich. 17. Alice Evans Studies the Great Gender Divergence — Episode 297 of The Seen and the Unseen. 18. The Forces That Shaped Hinduism -- Episode 405 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Manu Pillai). 19. How the BJP wins: Inside India's Greatest Election Machine — Prashant Jha. 20. The BJP's Magic Formula — Episode 45 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Prashant Jha). 21. Badri Narayan on Wikipedia and Amazon. 22. Terms of Trade: Mandal wins, por ahora -- Roshan Kishore. 23. Caste questions for Rahul Gandhi -- Pratap Bhanu Mehta. 24. The mirage of social justice -- Pratap Bhanu Mehta. 25. Affirmative Action Around the World: An Empirical Study -- Thomas Sowell. 26. The Grammar of Anarchy -- Babasaheb Ambedkar. 27. Policy Paradox -- Deborah Stone. 28. Why Does the Indian State Both Fail and Succeed? — Devesh Kapur. 29. The Life and Times of Vir Sanghvi — Episode 236 of The Seen and the Unseen. 30. The BJP Before Modi — Episode 202 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Vinay Sitapati). 31. The Forgotten Greatness of PV Narasimha Rao — Episode 283 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Vinay Sitapati). 32. An Area of Darkness -- VS Naipaul. 33. India: A Million Mutinies Now -- VS Naipaul. 34. Upstream -- Zheng Xu. 35. The Sea Hawk -- Manohar Malgonkar. 36. Ideas of India -- Shruti Rajagopalan's podcast. 37. The Great Power Show -- Manoj Kewalramani's podcast. 38. May December -- Todd Haynes. 40. Hard Truths -- Mike Leigh. 41. Secrets and Lies -- Mike Leigh. 42. A Real Pain -- Jesse Eisenberg. 43. Orbital -- Samnatha Harvey. 44. How Music Works -- David Byrne. 45. Visual Arts in the 20th Century -- Edward Lucie-Smith. Applications are open for the Takshashila Institution's Post-Graduate Programme in Public Policy, where Pranay will be one of your teachers! Amit Varma and Ajay Shah have launched a new course called Life Lessons, which aims to be a launchpad towards learning essential life skills all of you need. For more details, and to sign up, click here. Amit and Ajay also bring out a weekly YouTube show, Everything is Everything. Have you watched it yet? You must! And have you read Amit's newsletter? Subscribe right away to The India Uncut Newsletter! It's free! Also check out Amit's online course, The Art of Clear Writing. Episode art: ‘Count' by Simahina.
Pratap's bona fides ... How Pratap ran afoul of Modi (and the price he paid) ... Trump vs Modi: compare and contrast ... India's birth as a multi-ethnic state ... Pratap on how we got Trump (and Modi) ... Heading to Overtime ...
Pratap's bona fides ... How Pratap ran afoul of Modi (and the price he paid) ... Trump vs Modi: compare and contrast ... India's birth as a multi-ethnic state ... Pratap on how we got Trump (and Modi) ... Heading to Overtime ...
She's an economist, an institution-builder, an ecosystem-nurturer and one of our finest thinkers. Shruti Rajagopalan joins Amit Varma in episode 410 of The Seen and the Unseen to talk about her life & times -- and her remarkable work. (FOR FULL LINKED SHOW NOTES, GO TO SEENUNSEEN.IN.) Also check out: 1. Shruti Rajagopalan on Twitter, Substack, Instagram, her podcast, Ideas of India and her own website. 2. Emergent Ventures India. 3. The 1991 Project. 4. Life Lessons That Are Priceless -- Episodes 400 of The Seen and the Unseen. 5. Other episodes of The Seen and the Unseen w Shruti Rajagopalan, in reverse chronological order: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18. 6. The Day Ryan Started Masturbating -- Amit Varma's newsletter post explaining Shruti Rajagopalan's swimming pool analogy for social science research. 7. A Deep Dive Into Education -- Episode 54 of Everything is Everything. 8. Fixing Indian Education — Episode 185 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Karthik Muralidharan). 9. Population Is Not a Problem, but Our Greatest Strength -- Amit Varma. 10. Our Population Is Our Greatest Asset -- Episode 20 of Everything is Everything. 11. Where Has All the Education Gone? -- Lant Pritchett. 12. Lant Pritchett Is on Team Prosperity — Episode 379 of The Seen and the Unseen. 13. The Theory of Moral Sentiments — Adam Smith. 14. The Wealth of Nations — Adam Smith. 15. Commanding Heights -- Daniel Yergin. 16. Capitalism and Freedom -- Milton Friedman. 17. Free to Choose -- Milton Friedman and Rose Friedman. 18. Economics in One Lesson -- Henry Hazlitt. 19. The Road to Serfdom -- Friedrich Hayek. 20. Four Papers That Changed the World -- Episode 41 of Everything is Everything. 21. The Use of Knowledge in Society -- Friedrich Hayek. 22. Individualism and Economic Order -- Friedrich Hayek. 23. Understanding the State -- Episode 25 of Everything is Everything. 24. Richard E Wagner at Mercatus and Amazon. 25. Larry White and the First Principles of Money -- Episode 397 of The Seen and the Unseen. 26. Fixing the Knowledge Society -- Episode 24 of Everything is Everything. 27. Marginal Revolution. 28. Paul Graham's essays. 29. Commands and controls: Planning for indian industrial development, 1951–1990 -- Rakesh Mohan and Vandana Aggarwal. 30. The Reformers -- Episode 28 of Everything is Everything. 31. India: Planning for Industrialization -- Jagdish Bhagwati and Padma Desai. 32. Open Borders: The Science and Ethics of Immigration -- Bryan Caplan and Zach Weinersmith. 33. Cows on India Uncut. 34. Abdul Karim Khan on Spotify and YouTube. 35. The Surface Area of Serendipity -- Episode 39 of Everything is Everything. 36. Objects From Our Past -- Episode 77 of Everything is Everything. 37. Sriya Iyer on the Economics of Religion -- The Ideas of India Podcast. 38. Episodes of The Seen and the Unseen with Ramachandra Guha: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. 39. Episodes of The Seen and the Unseen with Pratap Bhanu Mehta: 1, 2. 40. Rohit Lamba Reimagines India's Economic Policy Emphasis -- The Ideas of India Podcast. 41. Rohit Lamba Will Never Be Bezubaan — Episode 378 of The Seen and the Unseen. 42. The Constitutional Law and Philosophy blog. 43. Cost and Choice -- James Buchanan. 44. Philip Wicksteed. 45. Pratap Bhanu Mehta on The Theory of Moral Sentiments -- The Ideas of India Podcast. 46. Conversation and Society — Episode 182 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Russ Roberts). 47. The Common Sense of Political Economy -- Philip Wicksteed. 48. Narendra Shenoy and Mr Narendra Shenoy — Episode 250 of The Seen and the Unseen. 49. Sudhir Sarnobat Works to Understand the World — Episode 350 of The Seen and the Unseen. 50. Manmohan Singh: India's Finest Talent Scout -- Shruti Rajagopalan. 51. The Importance of the 1991 Reforms — Episode 237 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Shruti Rajagopalan and Ajay Shah). 52. The Life and Times of Montek Singh Ahluwalia — Episode 285 of The Seen and the Unseen. 53. The Forgotten Greatness of PV Narasimha Rao — Episode 283 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Vinay Sitapati). 54. India's Massive Pensions Crisis — Episode 347 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ajay Shah & Renuka Sane). 55. The Life and Times of KP Krishnan — Episode 355 of The Seen and the Unseen. 56. Breaking Through — Isher Judge Ahluwalia. 57. Breaking Out — Padma Desai. 58. Perestroika in Perspective -- Padma Desai. 59. Shephali Bhatt Is Searching for the Incredible — Episode 391 of The Seen and the Unseen. 60. Pics from the Seen-Unseen party. 61. Pramod Varma on India's Digital Empowerment -- Episode 50 of Brave New World. 59. Niranjan Rajadhyaksha Is the Impartial Spectator — Episode 388 of The Seen and the Unseen. 60. Our Parliament and Our Democracy — Episode 253 of The Seen and the Unseen (w MR Madhavan). 61. Episodes of The Seen and the Unseen with Pranay Kotasthane: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13. 62. The Overton Window. 63. When Ideas Have Sex -- Matt Ridley. 64. The Three Languages of Politics — Arnold Kling. 65. Arnold Kling and the Four Languages of Politics -- Episode 394 of The Seen and the Unseen. 66. The Double ‘Thank You' Moment — John Stossel. 67. Economic growth is enough and only economic growth is enough — Lant Pritchett with Addison Lewis. 68. What is Libertarianism? — Episode 117 of The Seen and the Unseen (w David Boaz). 69. What Does It Mean to Be Libertarian? — Episode 64 of The Seen and the Unseen. 70. The Libertarian Mind: A Manifesto for Freedom -- David Boaz. 71. Publish and Perish — Agnes Callard. 72. Classical Liberal Institute. 73. Shruti Rajagopalan's YouTube talk on constitutional amendments. 74. What I, as a development economist, have been actively “for” -- Lant Pritchett. 75. Can Economics Become More Reflexive? — Vijayendra Rao. 76. Premature Imitation and India's Flailing State — Shruti Rajagopalan & Alexander Tabarrok. 77. Elite Imitation in Public Policy — Episode 180 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Shruti Rajagopalan and Alex Tabarrok). 78. Invisible Infrastructure -- Episode 82 of Everything is Everything. 79. The Sundara Kanda. 80. Devdutt Pattanaik and the Stories That Shape Us -- Episode 404 of The Seen and the Unseen. 81. Y Combinator. 82. Space Fields. 83. Apoorwa Masuk, Onkar Singh Batra, Naman Pushp, Angad Daryani, Deepak VS and Srijon Sarkar. 84. Deepak VS and the Man Behind His Face — Episode 373 of The Seen and the Unseen. 85. You've Got To Hide Your Love Away -- The Beatles. 86. Caste, Capitalism and Chandra Bhan Prasad — Episode 296 of The Seen and the Unseen. 87. Data For India -- Rukmini S's startup. 88. Whole Numbers And Half Truths — Rukmini S. 89. The Moving Curve — Rukmini S's Covid podcast, also on all podcast apps. 90. The Importance of Data Journalism — Episode 196 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Rukmini S). 91. Rukmini Sees India's Multitudes — Episode 261 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Rukmini S). 92. Prosperiti. 93. This Be The Verse — Philip Larkin. 94. The Dilemma of an Indian Liberal -- Gurcharan Das. 95. Zakir: 1951-2024 -- Shruti Rajagopalan. 96. Dazzling Blue -- Paul Simon, featuring Karaikudi R Mani. 97. John Coltrane, Shakti, Zakir Hussain, Ali Akbar Khan, Pannalal Ghosh, Nikhil Banerjee, Vilayat Khan, Bismillah Khan, Ravi Shankar, Bhimsen Joshi, Bade Ghulam Ali Khan, Nusrat Fateh Ali Khan, Esperanza Spalding, MS Subbulakshmi, Lalgudi Jayaraman, TN Krishnan, Sanjay Subrahmanyan, Ranjani-Gayatri and TM Krishna on Spotify. 98. James Buchanan, Gordon Tullock, Israel Kirzner, Mario Rizzo, Vernon Smith, Thomas Schelling and Ronald Coase. 99. The Calculus of Consent -- James Buchanan and Gordon Tullock. 100. Tim Harford and Martin Wolf. 101. The Shawshank Redemption -- Frank Darabont. 102. The Marriage of Figaro in The Shawshank Redemption. 103. An Equal Music -- Vikram Seth. 104. Beethoven: Symphony No. 7 - Zubin Mehta and the Belgrade Philharmonic. 105. Pyotr Ilyich Tchaikovsky's violin concertos. 106. Animal Farm -- George Orwell. 107. Down and Out in Paris and London -- George Orwell. 108. Gulliver's Travels -- Jonathan Swift. 109. Alice in Wonderland and Through the Looking Glass -- Lewis Carroll. 110. One Day in the Life of Ivan Denisovich -- Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn. 111. The Gulag Archipelago -- Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn. 112. Khosla Ka Ghosla -- Dibakar Banerjee. 113. Mr India -- Shekhar Kapur. 114. Chalti Ka Naam Gaadi -- Satyen Bose. 114. Finding Nemo -- Andrew Stanton. 115. Tom and Jerry and Bugs Bunny. 116. Michael Madana Kama Rajan -- Singeetam Srinivasa Rao. 117. The Music Box, with Laurel and Hardy. 118. The Disciple -- Chaitanya Tamhane. 119. Court -- Chaitanya Tamhane. 120. Dwarkesh Patel on YouTube. Amit Varma and Ajay Shah have launched a new course called Life Lessons, which aims to be a launchpad towards learning essential life skills all of you need. For more details, and to sign up, click here. Amit and Ajay also bring out a weekly YouTube show, Everything is Everything. Have you watched it yet? You must! And have you read Amit's newsletter? Subscribe right away to The India Uncut Newsletter! It's free! Also check out Amit's online course, The Art of Clear Writing. Episode art: ‘Learn' by Simahina.
One of the most talked about policy experiments in India in recent memory is the reform of government schools in the city-state of the National Capital Territory of Delhi. Under the leadership of the Aam Aadmi Party, the Delhi government has implemented an innovative program to equip students with foundational literacy and numeracy. But while these reforms are much discussed, they have been surprisingly under-studied. A new book by the scholar Yamini Aiyar tries to remedy this gap.Yamini's new book, Lessons in State Capacity from Delhi's Schools, draws on three years of ethnographic research where she and a team of colleagues were embedded in a cluster of schools across the national capital.Yamini is currently Visiting Senior Fellow at the Saxena Center for Contemporary South Asia and the Watson Institute at Brown University. Many of our listeners will know her from her work with the Centre for Policy Research in New Delhi, where she served as President from 2017 to 2024.To kick off season thirteen of Grand Tamasha, Yamini joins Milan on the show this week. They discuss Yamini's decade-long adventure studying India's public schools, the core elements of the Delhi education model, and the mysterious ways in which the India bureaucracy operates. Plus, they discuss whether the Delhi experiment can travel beyond the national capital.Episode notes:1. “How Bureaucracy Can Work for the Poor (with Akshay Mangla),” Grand Tamasha, March 29, 2023.2. Yamini Aiyar and Shrayana Bhattacharya, “The Post Office Paradox: A Case Study of the Block Level Education Bureaucracy,” Economic & Political Weekly 51, no. 11 (2016).3. Lant Pritchett, “Is India a Flailing State?: Detours on the Four Lane Highway to Modernization,” HKS Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP09-013, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 2009.4. Devesh Kapur, Pratap Bhanu Mehta, and Milan Vaishnav, Rethinking Public Institutions in India (New Delhi: Oxford University Press, 2017).
In June, Narendra Modi was sworn in for a third consecutive term as India's prime minister. But—in a surprise outcome—his party, the Bharatiya Janata Party, failed to win a parliamentary majority. Now, for the first time, Modi sits atop a coalition government—and India's path forward appears far less certain, and far more interesting, than seemed plausible not long ago. Pratap Bhanu Mehta is one of India's wisest political observers—a great political theorist and writer as well as a fierce critic, and occasional target, of Modi and his policies. Foreign Affairs Senior Editor Kanishk Tharoor spoke with him on September 3 about what the election means for Indian democracy and where the country goes from here. You can find transcripts and more episodes of The Foreign Affairs Interview at https://www.foreignaffairs.com/podcasts/foreign-affairs-interview.
Authoritarian tendencies have been on the rise globally and the liberal world order is on the decline. One hotspot of this tension lies in India, where Prime Minister Narendra Modi employs autocratic language and tactics to maintain power. But a recent election may indicate that voters are losing interest in this style of rule. Guest host Zack Beauchamp talks with scholar Pratap Bhanu Mehta about the past of the Indian liberal tradition and what the current politics of the world's largest democracy say about the state of global politics. Host: Sean Illing (@seanilling), host, The Gray Area Guest: Pratap Bhanu Mehta Enjoyed this episode? Rate The Gray Area ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ and leave a review on Apple Podcasts. Be the first to hear new episodes of The Gray Area by following us in your favorite podcast app. Links here: https://www.vox.com/the-gray-area Support The Gray Area by making a financial contribution to Vox! bit.ly/givepodcasts This episode was made by: Producer: Jon Ehrens Engineer: Patrick Boyd Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Our greatest moral imperative is to solve the problem of poverty -- and after over 75 years, we still have some distance to travel. Rajeswari Sengupta joins Amit Varma in episode 387 of The Seen and the Unseen for a deep dive into how we got here, where we went wrong, what we got right, and how we should look at the Indian economy going forward. (FOR FULL LINKED SHOW NOTES, GO TO SEENUNSEEN.IN.) Also check out:1. Rajeswari Sengupta's homepage. 2. Demystifying GDP — Episode 130 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Rajeswari Sengupta). 3. Twelve Dream Reforms — Episode 138 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Shruti Rajagopalan, Rajeswari Sengupta & Vivek Kaul). 4. Two-and-a-Half Bengalis Have an Economics Adda -- Episode 274 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Rajeswari Sengupta and Shrayana Bhattacharya). 5. Talks & Discussions on the Indian Economy featuring Rajeswari Sengupta. 6. Rajeswari Sengulta's writings on the Indian economy. 7. Rajeswari Sengupta's writing for Ideas for India. 8. Rajeswari Sengupta's writing on the Leap Blog. 9. Rajeswari Sengupta's pieces on GDP: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. 10. Rajeswari Sengupta's pieces on fiscal policy: 1, 2, 3. 11. Rajeswari Sengupta's pieces on the banking crisis: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. 12. Rajeswari Sengupta's pieces on the financial sector: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7. 13. Rajeswari Sengupta's pieces on Covid: 1, 2, 3, 4. 14. Getting the State out of Our Lives -- Rajeswari Sengupta's TEDx talk. 15. Why Freedom Matters -- Episode 10 of Everything is Everything. 16. The Reformers -- Episode 28 of Everything is Everything. 17. The Importance of the 1991 Reforms — Episode 237 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Shruti Rajagopalan and Ajay Shah). 18. The Life and Times of Montek Singh Ahluwalia — Episode 285 of The Seen and the Unseen. 19. The Forgotten Greatness of PV Narasimha Rao — Episode 283 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Vinay Sitapati). 20. India's Lost Decade — Episode 116 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Puja Mehra). 21. The Life and Times of KP Krishnan -- Episode 355 of The Seen and the Unseen. 22. Lant Pritchett Is on Team Prosperity -- Episode 379 of The Seen and the Unseen. 23. Josh Felman Tries to Make Sense of the World — Episode 321 of The Seen and the Unseen. 24. Rohit Lamba Will Never Be Bezubaan -- Episode 378 of The Seen and the Unseen. 25. Yugank Goyal Is out of the Box — Episode 370 of The Seen and the Unseen. 26. The State of Our Farmers — Ep 86 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Gunvant Patil, in Hindi). 27. India's Agriculture Crisis — Ep 140 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Barun Mitra & Kumar Anand). 28. The Tragedy of Our Farm Bills — Episode 211 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ajay Shah). 29. The Art and Science of Economic Policy — Episode 154 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Vijay Kelkar & Ajay Shah). 30. Two Economic Crises (2008 & 2019) — Episode 135 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Mohit Satynanand). 31. The Indian Economy in 2019 — Episode 153 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Vivek Kaul). 32. Subhashish Bhadra on Our Dysfunctional State -- Episode 333 of The Seen and the Unseen. 33. The Importance of Data Journalism — Episode 196 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Rukmini S). 34. Rukmini Sees India's Multitudes — Episode 261 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Rukmini S). 35. Pramit Bhattacharya Believes in Just One Ism — Episode 256 of The Seen and the Unseen. 36. Understanding the State -- Episode 25 of Everything is Everything. 37. When Should the State Act? -- Episode 26 of Everything is Everything. 38. Public Choice Theory Explains SO MUCH -- Episode 33 of Everything is Everything. 39. Our Population Is Our Greatest Asset -- Episode 20 of Everything is Everything. 40. What's Wrong With Indian Agriculture? -- Episode 18 of Everything is Everything. 41. The Long Road to Change -- Episode 36 of Everything is Everything. 42. India Needs Decentralization -- Episode 47 of Everything is Everything. 43. Beware of These Five Fallacies! -- Episode 45 of Everything is Everything. 44. Stay Away From Luxury Beliefs -- Episode 46 of Everything is Everything. 45. Graduating to Globalisation -- Episode 48 of Everything is Everything (on I18N). 46. Ask Me ANYTHING! -- Episode 50 of Everything is Everything. 47. Four Papers That Changed the World -- Episode 41 of Everything is Everything. 48. The Populist Playbook -- Episode 42 of Everything is Everything. 49. The 1991 Project. 50. The quest for economic freedom in India — Shruti Rajagopalan. 51. What I, as a development economist, have been actively “for” — Lant Pritchett. 52. National Development Delivers: And How! And How? — Lant Pritchett. 53. Economic growth is enough and only economic growth is enough — Lant Pritchett with Addison Lewis. 54. Is India a Flailing State?: Detours on the Four Lane Highway to Modernization — Lant Pritchett. 55. Is Your Impact Evaluation Asking Questions That Matter? A Four Part Smell Test — Lant Pritchett. 56. The Perils of Partial Attribution: Let's All Play for Team Development — Lant Pritchett. 57. Some episodes of The Seen and the Unseen on the state of the economy: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. 58. Accelerating India's Development — Karthik Muralidharan. 59. Unshackling India -- Ajay Chhibber and Salman Soz. 60. India Grows At Night -- Gurcharan Das. 61. India's Problem is Poverty, Not Inequality -- Amit Varma. 62. Mohit Satyanand's newsletter post on the informal sector. 63. Pratap Bhanu Mehta's column on mission mode interventions. 64. The Hedonistic Treadmill. 65. 77% low-income households saw no income increase in the past 5 yrs -- Vasudha Mukherjee. 66. Pandit's Mind — The 1951 Time magazine cover story on Jawaharlal Nehru. 67. Economic Facts and Fallacies -- Thomas Sowell. 68. An Autobiography -- Jawaharlal Nehru. 69. The Double 'Thank You' Moment -- John Stossel. 70. Profit = Philanthropy — Amit Varma. 71. India After Gandhi -- Ramachandra Guha. 72. The China Dude Is in the House -- Episode 231 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Manoj Kewalramani). 73. The Dragon and the Elephant -- Episode 181 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Hamsini Hariharan and Shibani Mehta). 74. Caste, Capitalism and Chandra Bhan Prasad — Episode 296 of The Seen and the Unseen. 75. The Collected Writings and Speeches of Dr Babasaheb Ambedkar. 76. Population Is Not a Problem, but Our Greatest Strength -- Amit Varma. 77. How to assess the needs for aid? The answer: Don't ask -- William Easterly. 78. The White Man's Burden -- William Easterly. 79. The Elusive Quest for Growth -- William Easterly. 80. The Tyranny of Experts -- William Easterly. 81. Planners vs. Searchers in Foreign Aid — William Easterly. 82. Pandit's Mind — The 1951 Time magazine cover story on Jawaharlal Nehru. 83. 75 Years of India's Foreign Exchange Controls -- Bhargavi Zaveri Shah. 84. Breaking the Mould: Reimagining India's Economic Future — Raghuram Rajan and Rohit Lamba. 85. The History of the Planning Commission — Episode 306 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Nikhil Menon). 86. Adam Smith on The Man of System. 87. The Use of Knowledge in Society — Friedrich Hayek. 88. Price Controls Lead to Shortages and Harm the Poor -- Amit Varma. 89. The Great Redistribution -- Amit Varma. 90. Backstage: The Story behind India's High Growth Years -- Montek Singh Ahluwalia. 91. The Indian State Is the Greatest Enemy of the Indian Farmer -- Amit Varma piece, which contains the Sharad Joshi shair. 92. India's Massive Pensions Crisis — Episode 347 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ajay Shah & Renuka Sane). 93. The Economic Legacies of Colonial Rule in India -- Tirthankar Roy. 94. The Semiconductor Wars — Episode 358 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Pranay Kotasthane & Abhiram Manchi). 95. BR Shenoy on Wikipedia and Indian Liberals. 96. BR Shenoy: Stature and Impact -- Peter Bauer. 97. The Foreign Exchange Crisis and India's Second Five Year Plan -- VKRV Rao. 98. India's Water Crisis — Episode 60 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Vishwanath S aka Zenrainman). 99. The Delhi Smog — Episode 44 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Vivek Kaul). 100. Fixing Indian Education — Episode 185 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Karthik Muralidharan). 101. Education in India — Episode 77 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Amit Chandra). 102. The Profit Motive in Education — Episode 9 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Parth Shah). 103. Our Unlucky Children (2008) — Amit Varma. 104. Where Has All the Education Gone? — Lant Pritchett. 105. Every Act of Government Is an Act of Violence -- Amit Varma. 106. Narendra Modi takes a Great Leap Backwards -- Amit Varma on DeMon & Mao killing sparrows. 107. The Emergency: A Personal History — Coomi Kapoor. 108. Coomi Kapoor Has the Inside Track — Episode 305 of The Seen and the Unseen. 109. Seven Stories That Should Be Films -- Episode 23 of Everything in Everything, in which Amit talks about the Emergency. 110. Milton Friedman on the minimum wage. 111. The Commanding Heights -- Daniel Yergin and Joseph Stanislaw. 112. Bootleggers and Baptists: The Education of a Regulatory Economist -- Bruce Yandle. 113. Raees: An Empty Shell of a Gangster Film — Amit Varma. 114. Josh Felman on Twitter, Project Syndicate, JH Consulting and The Marginal Economist. 115. Obituaries of SV Raju by Niranjan Rajadhyaksha and Samanth Subramanian. 116. Breaking Out -- Padma Desai. 117. Breaking Through -- Isher Judge Ahluwalia. 118. India's Far From Free Markets (2005) — Amit Varma in the Wall Street Journal. 119. Naushad Forbes Wants to Fix India — Episode 282 of The Seen and the Unseen. 120. The Struggle And The Promise — Naushad Forbes. 121. Half-Lion -- Vinay Sitapati's biography of PV Narasimha Rao. 122. A Game Theory Problem: Who Will Bell The Congress Cat? — Amit Varma. 123. India Transformed -- Rakesh Mohan. 124. Highway to Success: The Impact of the Golden Quadrilateral -- Ejaz Ghani, Arti Grover Goswami and William R Kerr. 125. The Cantillon Effect. 126. The Lost Decade -- Puja Mehra. 127. Modi's Domination – What We Often Overlook — Keshava Guha. 128. XKDR Forum. 129. Beware of the Useful Idiots — Amit Varma. 130. Some of Amit Varma's pieces and episodes against Demonetisation: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8. 131. Episode of The Seen and the Unseen on GST: 1, 2, 3. 132. Miniature episodes of The Seen and the Unseen on PSBs, NPAs and NBFCs. 133. The Bankable Wisdom of Harsh Vardhan -- Episode 352 of The Seen and the Unseen. 134. Politics of Economic Growth in India, 1980-2005 -- Atul Kohli. 135. The Economic Consequences of the Peace -- John Maynard Keynes. 136. India's GDP Mis-estimation: Likelihood, Magnitudes, Mechanisms, and Implications -- Arvind Subramanian. 137. What a Long Strange Trip It's Been -- Episode 188 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Arvind Subramanian). 138. Episodes of The Seen and the Unseen on Covid-19: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14. 139. A Venture Capitalist Looks at the World -- Episode 213 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Sajith Pai). 140. The Indus Valley Playbook — Sajith Pai. 141. India's Trade Policy Is Working Great — for Vietnam -- Andy Mukherjee. 142. A Trade Deficit With a Babysitter -- Tim Harford. 143. The City & the City — China Miéville. 144. A Decade of Credit Collapse in India -- Harsh Vardhan. 145. The Low Productivity Trap of Collateralised Lending for MSMEs -- Harsh Vardhan. 146. Economic Learnings of India for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Bihar -- Episode 345 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Mohit Satyanand and Kumar Anand). 147. They Stole a Bridge. They Stole a Pond -- Amit Varma. 148. Yes Minister and Yes Prime Minister -- Jonathan Lynn and Antony Jay. 149. The Right to Property — Episode 26 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Shruti Rajagopalan). 150. Episodes of The Seen and the Unseen on agriculture: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8. 151. Some of Amit Varma's pieces on agriculture: 1, 2, 3. 152. The Crisis in Indian Agriculture — Brainstorm on Pragati. 153. Where are the Markets? — Kumar Anand. 154. Empower Women Farmers -- Mrinal Pande. 155. The Mystery of Capital — Hernando De Soto. 156. India Unbound -- Gurcharan Das. 157. In Service of the Republic — Vijay Kelkar & Ajay Shah. 158. We, The Citizens: Strengthening the Indian Republic — Khyati Pathak, Anupam Manur and Pranay Kotasthane. 159. Making Policy Fun with Khyati Pathak and Friends -- Episode 374 of The Seen and the Unseen. 160. Seeing Like a State — James C Scott. 161. Free To Choose — Milton Friedman and Rose Friedman. 162. Classical Liberalism- A Primer -- Eamonn Butler. 163. Friedrich Hayek: The ideas and influence of the libertarian economist -- Eamonn Butler. 164. Milton Friedman: A concise guide to the ideas and influence of the free-market economist -- Eamonn Butler. 165. Public Choice – A Primer -- Eamonn Butler. 166. Adam Smith – A Primer: Eamonn Butler. 167. The Clash of Economic Ideas -- Lawrence H White. 168. Just a Mercenary?: Notes from My Life and Career -- D Subbarao. 169. Who Moved My Interest Rate? -- D Subbarao. 170. Advice & Dissent: My Life in Public Service -- YV Reddy. 171. A Business History of India -- Tirthankar Roy. 172. Courage to Act: A Memoir of a Crisis and Its Aftermath -- Ben Bernanke. 173. Whole Numbers And Half Truths -- Rukmini S. 174. Fragile by Design -- Charles Calomiris and Stephen Haber. 175. Universal Man: The Seven Lives of John Maynard Keynes -- Richard Davenport-Hines. 176. A Life in Our Times -- John Kenneth Galbraith. 177. The Age of Uncertainty -- John Kenneth Galbraith. 178. Fixing the Knowledge Society -- Episode 24 of Everything is Everything. Amit's newsletter is active again. Subscribe right away to The India Uncut Newsletter! It's free! Amit Varma and Ajay Shah have launched a new video podcast. Check out Everything is Everything on YouTube. Check out Amit's online course, The Art of Clear Writing. Episode art: ‘It's Complicated' by Simahina.
The incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of Prime Minister Narendra Modi entered this election as the clear favorite with every single pre-election survey pointing a decisive victory. However, the party is leaving no stone unturned in its effort to notch a third consecutive parliamentary majority.To discuss the BJP's campaign, Milan is joined on the show this week by Smriti Kak Ramachandran, a veteran journalist who covers the BJP for the Hindustan Times. Smriti has spent over a decade in journalism combining old fashioned leg work with modern story telling tools.Milan and Smriti discuss how the BJP is responding to lower-than-expected turnout in the first phase of voting, Modi's communally-tinged speech in Rajasthan, and the surprising omission from the BJP's manifesto. Plus, the two discuss the states the BJP is keeping a close eye on, from Odisha in the east to Tamil Nadu in the south.Episode notes:1. Smriti Kak Ramachandran, “Lok Sabha polls: BJP announces new candidate for Ladakh,” Hindustan Times, April 23, 2024.2. Smriti Kak Ramachandran, “No changes to constitution, assures PM,” Hindustan Times, April 22, 2024.3. Smriti Kak Ramachandran, “Odisha gives BJP sleepless nights,” Hindustan Times, April 18, 2024.4. Smriti Kak Ramachandran, “Lok Sabha election manifestos: Modi's Guarantee, Congress's NYAY,” Hindustan Times, April 16, 2024.5. Smriti Kak Ramachandran, “String of new BJP entrants puts focus on headhunter,” Hindustan Times, April 16, 2024.6. Smriti Kak Ramachandran, “BJP Lok Sabha poll manifesto: A mix of welfare politics, ideological causes,” Hindustan Times, April 14, 2024.7. “Previewing India's 2024 General Election (with Sukumar Ranganathan),” Grand Tamasha, April 17, 2024.8. Pratap Bhanu Mehta, “Why voters' silence is making the BJP nervous,” Indian Express, April 24, 2024.
Pratap Bhanu Mehta on the Campbell Conversations.
March 26, 2024
What is the difference between ch*tiya and dusht? Why are vegetarians evil? Why do Indians do the best bench pressing? Krish Ashok and Naren Shenoy join Amit Varma in episode 362 of The Seen and the Unseen for the most fun conversation ever. Really, ever. We got it certified. (FOR FULL LINKED SHOW NOTES, GO TO SEENUNSEEN.IN.) Also check out: 1. Krish Ashok on Twitter, Instagram, YouTube, his own website and Spotify/Apple Music/Soundcloud. 2. Naren Shenoy on Twitter, Instagram and Blogspot. 3. We Are All Amits From Africa -- Episode 343 of The Seen and the Unseen. 4. A Scientist in the Kitchen — Episode 204 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Krish Ashok). 5. Narendra Shenoy and Mr Narendra Shenoy — Episode 250 of The Seen and the Unseen. 6. Masala Lab: The Science of Indian Cooking — Krish Ashok. 7. We want Narendra Shenoy to write a book. 8. Fixing Indian Education — Episode 185 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Karthik Muralidharan). 9. Kashmir and Article 370 — Episode 134 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Srinath Raghavan). 10. Indian Society: The Last 30 Years — Episode 137 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Santosh Desai). 11. The Life and Times of Shanta Gokhale — Episode 311 of The Seen and the Unseen. 12. The Life and Times of Jerry Pinto — Episode 314 of The Seen and the Unseen. 13. The Life and Times of KP Krishnan — Episode 355 of The Seen and the Unseen. 14. Natasha Badhwar Lives the Examined Life — Episode 301 of The Seen and the Unseen. 15. The Adda at the End of the Universe — Episode 309 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Vikram Sathaye and Roshan Abbas). 16. Dance Dance For the Halva Waala — Episode 294 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Jai Arjun Singh and Subrat Mohanty). 17. Narendra Modi on climate change. 18. Yes Minister -- Jonathan Lynn and Antony Jay. 19. Yes Prime Minister -- Jonathan Lynn and Antony Jay. 20. The Overview Effect. 21. The Day Ryan Started Masturbating -- Amit Varma. 22. Security Check -- Varun Grover. 23. Nothing is Indian! Everything is Indian! -- Episode 12 of Everything is Everything. 24. The Restaurant at the End of the Universe -- Douglas Adams. 25. Arrival — Denis Villeneuve. 26. The Hidden Life of Trees — Peter Wohlleben. 27. Self-Esteem (and a Puddle) — Amit Varma's post with Douglas Adams's puddle quote. 28. Bittu Sahgal on Wikipedia, Instagram, Twitter and Amazon. 29. I Contain Multitudes -- Ed Yong. 30. Song of Myself — Walt Whitman. 31. How I Reversed My Type 2 Diabetes -- Episode 9 of Everything is Everything. 32. Fat Chance -- Robert Lustig on Fructose 2.0. 33. How Sugar & Processed Foods Impact Your Health -- Robert Lustig on The Huberman Lab Podcast. 34. Rahul Matthan Seeks the Protocol -- Episode 360 of The Seen and the Unseen. 35. Privacy 3.0 — Rahul Matthan. 36. Abby Philips Fights for Science and Medicine — Episode 310 of The Seen and the Unseen. 37. Shruti Jahagirdar's Twitter thread on Bournvita. 38. Shruti Jahagirdar is the Sporty One -- Episode 289 of The Seen and the Unseen. 39. The Incredible Curiosities of Mukulika Banerjee — Episode 276 of The Seen and the Unseen. 40. Seven Stories That Should Be Films -- Episode 23 of Everything is Everything. 41. What's Wrong With Indian Agriculture? -- Episode 18 of Everything is Everything. 42. The Walrus and the Carpenter -- Lewis Carroll. 43. There is no Frigate like a Book -- Emily Dickinson. 44. Why I'm Hopeful About Twitter -- Amit Varma. 45. A decontextualized reel of Dr Pal on The Ranveer Show. 46. The Liver Doctor's feisty response to the reel above. 47. The full interview of Dr Pal on The Ranveer Show. 48. The Gentle Wisdom of Pratap Bhanu Mehta — Episode 300 of The Seen and the Unseen. 49. Aakash Singh Rathore, the Ironman Philosopher — Episode 340 of The Seen and the Unseen. 50. Dunbar's number. 51. Snow Crash -- Neal Stephenson. 52. Carl Sagan and Neil deGrasse Tyson. 53. The Selfish Gene -- Richard Dawkins. 54. GianChand Whisky. 55. Beware of Quacks. Alternative Medicine is Injurious to Health — Amit Varma. 56. Homeopathic Faith — Amit Varma. 57. Homeopathy, quackery and fraud — James Randi. 58. Fallacy of Composition. 59. The Secret to a Happy Marriage -- Mike and Joelle. 60. I Wandered Lonely as a Cloud -- William Wordsworth. 61. WD 40 on Amazon. 62. Dog Songs -- Mary Oliver. 63. The Evolution of Cooperation -- Robert Axelrod. 64. The Interpreter -- Amit Varma (on Michael Gazzaniga's split-brain experiments). 65. Human -- Michael Gazzaniga. 66. The Blank Slate -- Steven Pinker. 67. Minority Report -- Steven Spielberg. 68. Free Will -- Sam Harris. 69. Determined: Life Without Free Will -- Robert Sapolsky. 70. Behave -- Robert Sapolsky. 71. Noise -- Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony and Cass R. Sunstein. 72. Brave New World -- Aldous Huxley. 73. Cicada -- Shaun Tan. 74. Don't think too much of yourself. You're an accident — Amit Varma's column on Chris Cornell's death. 75. Are You Just One Version of Yourself? -- Episode 3 of Everything is Everything. 76. Lat Uljhi Suljha Ja Balam -- Bade Ghulam Ali Khan performs Raag Bihag. 77. Danish Husain and the Multiverse of Culture -- Episode 359 of The Seen and the Unseen. 78. Danish Husain's anecdote about Mahatma Gandhi and Bade Ghulam Ali Khan. 79. Pushpesh Pant Feasts on the Buffet of Life -- Episode 326 of The Seen and the Unseen. 80. Arijit Singh on Autotune. 81. How Music Works -- David Byrne. 82. Raga Lalita Gauri -- Mallikarjun Mansur. 83. Raag Lalita Gauri (1947) -- Kesarbai Kerkar. 84. Raga Vibhas -- Mallikarjun Mansur. 85. Mohe Rang Do Laal -- Song from Bajirao Mastani. 86. Raag Basanti Kedar -- Mallikarjun Mansur. 87. Travelling through Pakistan; from Karachi to K2 -- Salman Rashid on The Pakistan Experience, hosted by Shehzad Ghias Shaikh. 88. A rare video of Balasaraswathi dancing while singing Krishna Nee Begane. 89. Krishna Nee Begane Baro -- Madras String Quartet. 90. Albela Sajan -- Hard rock adaptation by Krish Ashok and Vijay Kannan. 91. [Don't Fear] The Reaper -- Blue Oyster Cult. 92. Krish Ashok's Sanskrit version of the song above. 93. Purple Haze -- Jimi Hendrix. 94. All That She Wants — Ace of Base. 95. Caste, Gender, Karnatik Music — Episode 162 of The Seen and the Unseen (w TM Krishna). 96. Brown Eyed Girl -- Van Morrison. 97. Astral Weeks -- Van Morrison. 98. Moondance -- Van Morrison. 99. Episode on Astral Weeks in the podcast, A History of Rock Music in 500 Songs. 100. In a Silent Way — Episode 316 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Gaurav Chintamani). 101. Advaita on YouTube Music, YouTube, Spotify, Instagram and Twitter. 102. Raman Negi on YouTube Music, YouTube, Spotify, Instagram and Twitter. 103. Greta Van Fleet and The Mars Volta on Spotify. 104. Shakti and Indian Ocean on Spotify. 105. Pink Floyd and Kendrick Lamar on Spotify. 106. Analysis of Food Pairing in Regional Cuisines of India -- Anupam Jain, Rakhi NK and Ganesh Bagler. 107. Krish Ashok's reel explaining the above paper. 108. Amitava Kumar Finds the Breath of Life -- Episode 265 of The Seen and the Unseen. 109. How to Show, Not Tell: The Complete Writing Guide -- Diane Callahan. 110. We Love Vaccines! We Love Freedom! -- Episode 27 of Everything is Everything. 111. Math Is Better Than the Brigadier's Girlfriend -- Episode 15 of Everything is Everything. 112. Chintaman and I -- Durgabai Deshmukh. 113. Kavitha Rao and Our Lady Doctors — Episode 235 of The Seen and the Unseen. 114. Lady Doctors -- Kavitha Rao. 115. Jeff Bezos on The Lex Fridman Podcast talking about one-way doors and two-way doors. 116. It is immoral to have children. Here's why — Amit Varma. 117. Population Is Not a Problem, but Our Greatest Strength — Amit Varma. 118. Our Population Is Our Greatest Asset -- Episode 20 of Everything is Everything. 119. ChuChuTV. 120. A Deep Dive Into Ukraine vs Russia — Episode 335 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ajay Shah). 121. The State of the Ukraine War -- Episode 14 of Everything is Everything. 122. King Lear -- William Shakespeare. 123. Churchill: Walking with Destiny -- Andrew Roberts. 124. Churchill and the genocide myth — Zareer Masani. 125. Perplexity. This episode is sponsored by CTQ Compounds. Check out The Daily Reader and FutureStack. Use the code UNSEEN for Rs 2500 off. Amit Varma and Ajay Shah have launched a new video podcast. Check out Everything is Everything on YouTube. Check out Amit's online course, The Art of Clear Writing. And subscribe to The India Uncut Newsletter. It's free! Episode art: ‘'Let's Dance" by Simahina.
India is known as a country of paradoxes, and a new one has recently emerged. At the same time that the country is poised to become a major global player — with a booming economy and a population that recently surpassed China's — its democracy is showing signs of decay.Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his administration have silenced critics and independent institutions. India's social media discourse has turned increasingly right wing and hostile to Muslims. And Canada and the United States have accused Indian government officials of involvement in assassination plots against Sikh activists.Pratap Bhanu Mehta is an honorary senior fellow at the Center for Policy Research, New Delhi; a professor at Princeton University; and an editor of “The Oxford Handbook to the Indian Constitution.” In this conversation, he walks our guest host Lydia Polgreen through India's rising illiberalism. “The signs for Indian democracy are looking very ominous,” he says.They discuss the paradox between India's flourishing economy and culture and signs of weakening democracy, especially at a moment when many Western countries are cheering a rising India as a democratic counterweight to China. They also talk about what makes Modi such a remarkable and effective political leader and what the United States and other countries could or should do in response to a more assertive India that is shattering norms at home.Mentioned:The Discovery of India by Jawaharlal NehruBook Recommendations:The India Trilogy by V.S. NaipaulIndia in Asian Geopolitics by Shivshankar MenonDreamers by Snigdha PoonamThoughts? Guest suggestions? Email us at ezrakleinshow@nytimes.com.You can find transcripts (posted midday) and more episodes of “The Ezra Klein Show” at nytimes.com/ezra-klein-podcast, and you can find Ezra on Twitter @ezraklein. Book recommendations from all our guests are listed at https://www.nytimes.com/article/ezra-klein-show-book-recs.This episode of “The Ezra Klein Show” was produced by Rollin Hu. Fact-checking by Michelle Harris. Mixing by Efim Shapiro. Our senior engineer is Jeff Geld. Our senior editor is Claire Gordon. The show's production team also includes Emefa Agawu and Kristin Lin. Original music by Isaac Jones. Audience strategy by Kristina Samulewski and Shannon Busta. The executive producer of New York Times Opinion Audio is Annie-Rose Strasser.
For the 200th episode of Puliyabaazi, we discuss the state of India's democracy with one of the most prominent public intellectuals of our times, Pratap Bhanu Mehta. Is India truly an outlier? What are the root causes of the political and social changes we are witnessing today? How do we look at the issue of the Uniform Civil Code? We discussed many such questions that puzzle us with Dr. Mehta in this thought-provoking Puliyabaazi. Do listen in and share your thoughts and comments with us. इस हफ़्ते, एक ख़ास पुलियाबाज़ी हमारे समय के एक प्रमुख बुद्धिजीवी प्रताप भानु मेहता जी के साथ। क्या भारत वास्तव में एक अपवाद है? आज हम जो राजनीतिक और सामाजिक परिवर्तन देख रहे हैं, उनके मूल कारण क्या है? UCC के मुद्दे को किस तरह से देखा जाए? ऐसे कई उलझनों से भरे सवालों पर कुछ बातें आज की पुलियाबाज़ी में। सुनियेगा ज़रूर। **** useful links ***** Book | Burden of Democracy by Pratap Bhanu Mehtahttps://a.co/d/dPEJTrQ Article | Pratap Bhanu Mehta writes: Uniform Civil Code must be about justice, not majoritarianismhttps://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/pratap-bhanu-mehta-writes-the-ucc-moment-8692886/ ***** more Puliyabaazi on Democracy ***** संसद को सुदृढ़ कैसे करें? Strengthening India's Parliament ft. M R Madhavanhttps://youtu.be/4dhm1cqHf2o?si=IREveBXgc9jI9cWK Ep02 ये Republic क्या बला है? What is a Republic? Why Does it Matter?https://youtu.be/UIhN5XJVteA?si=oVGK5Hg32ejJqvFH Ep82 एक जन संविधान. A People's Constitution ft. Rohit Dehttps://youtu.be/MaCMkkiz6xE?si=zdSFPkftGDoZMuWk ***************** Website: https://puliyabaazi.in Write to us at puliyabaazi@gmail.com Hosts: @saurabhchandra @pranaykotas @thescribblebee Puliyabaazi is on these platforms: Twitter: @puliyabaazi Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/puliyabaazi/ Subscribe & listen to the podcast on iTunes, Google Podcasts, Castbox, AudioBoom, YouTube, Spotify or any other podcast app. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
She's one of our finest thinkers, and has devoted her life to public policy and building this country. Yamini Aiyar joins Amit Varma in episode 341 of The Seen and the Unseen to discuss her life, her learnings and how the Indian state can be reformed. (FOR FULL LINKED SHOW NOTES, GO TO SEENUNSEEN.IN.) Also check out: 1. Yamini Aiyar at Twitter, Deccan Herald, Hindustan Times and Center for Policy Research. 2. The Curious Case of the Powerful yet Powerless Bureaucrat -- BSC Seminar with Yamini Aiyar. 3. Rules Vs. Responsiveness -- A talk by Yamini Aiyar at IIM-A. 4. The State of the State: Strengthening India's Governance Capabilities -- Panel discussion featuring Yamini Aiyar and moderated by Amit Varma. 5. The Looking-Glass Self. 6. Wanting — Luke Burgis. 7. René Girard on Amazon and Wikipedia. 8. Luke Burgis Sees the Deer at His Window -- Episode 337 of The Seen and the Unseen. 9. The Overton Window. 10. The Importance of the 1991 Reforms — Episode 237 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Shruti Rajagopalan and Ajay Shah). 11. Fixing Indian Education — Episode 185 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Karthik Muralidharan). 12. Understanding Indian Healthcare — Episode 225 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Karthik Muralidharan). 13. Karthik Muralidharan Examines the Indian State — Episode 290 of The Seen and the Unseen. 14. Ashutosh Salil and the Challenge of Change — Episode 312 of The Seen and the Unseen. 15. India's Far From Free Markets (2005) — Amit Varma in the Wall Street Journal. 16. Pure Magic -- Kumkum Chadha on Shankara Pillai Krishna Kumar. 17. The Tragedy of Our Farm Bills — Episode 211 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ajay Shah). 18. India's Greatest Civil Servant — Episode 167 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Narayani Basu, on VP Menon). 19. Caged Tiger: How Too Much Government Is Holding Indians Back — Subhashish Bhadra. 20. Subhashish Bhadra on Our Dysfunctional State — Episode 333 of The Seen and the Unseen. 21. A Life in Indian Politics — Episode 149 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Jayaprakash Narayan). 22. Jayaprakash Narayan Wants to Mend Our Democracy — Episode 334 of The Seen and the Unseen. 23. The RISE Programme. 24. Population Is Not a Problem, but Our Greatest Strength — Amit Varma. 25. Is the Singularity Near? -- Episode 2 of Everything is Everything. 26. My Hero, Oppenheimer -- Episode 5 of Everything is Everything. 27. Episodes of The Seen and the Unseen with Ramachandra Guha: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. 28. What Have We Done With Our Independence? — Episode 186 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Pratap Bhanu Mehta). 29. The Gentle Wisdom of Pratap Bhanu Mehta — Episode 300 of The Seen and the Unseen. 30. In Service of the Republic — Vijay Kelkar & Ajay Shah. 31. The Art and Science of Economic Policy — Episode 154 of The Seen and the Unseen. 32. Missing In Action: Why You Should Care About Public Policy — Pranay Kotasthane and Raghu S Jaitley. 33. The Long Road From Neeyat to Neeti — Episode 313 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Pranay Kotasthane and Raghu S Jaitley). 34. The Loneliness of the Indian Woman — Episode 259 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Shrayana Bhattacharya). 35. Making Bureaucracy Work: Norms, Education and Public Service Delivery in Rural India -- Akshay Mangla. 36. Is India a Flailing State? — Lant Pritchett. 37. James Manor on Amazon. 38. The Hedgehog And The Fox — Isaiah Berlin. 39. Vajpayee: The Ascent of the Hindu Right, 1924–1977 -- Abhishek Choudhary. 40. Planning Democracy: How A Professor, An Institute, And An Idea Shaped India — Nikhil Menon. 41. The History of the Planning Commission -- Episode 306 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Nikhil Menon). 42. Nehru's India -- Taylor Sherman. 43. Hindutva and Violence -- Vinayak Chaturvedi. 44. The Thursday Murder Club -- Richard Osman. 45. Agatha Christie on Amazon. 46. Dahaad, Kohrra, Scoop and Crash Course in Romance. Amit Varma and Ajay Shah have launched a new video podcast. Check out Everything is Everything on YouTube. Check out Amit's online course, The Art of Clear Writing. And subscribe to The India Uncut Newsletter. It's free! Episode art: ‘Build It' by Simahina.
In this episode, Amber and Uzair talk about the latest from Pakistan, focusing on the ongoing hearings in the Supreme Court on military trials of civilians and the alleged statements recorded by Azam Khan. Our big story for this week is from India, where we focus on the ongoing wave of violence and instability in Manipur. Most recently, videos of sexual violence against women has made headlines around the world, and we try to tell you what exactly is going on and its drivers during a conversation with Ananya Bhardwaj. Ananya works as a Senior Assistant Editor for ThePrint. She writes on crime, law and order, terrorism, internal security and policing in Delhi and has travelled extensively to report on gender issues and social welfare, churning out series of investigative and human interest stories. She has also independently anchored and shot many video projects. ThePrint has done some fantastic reporting from Manipur and some of the key stories are here: - https://theprint.in/ground-reports/no-one-wants-to-talk-about-rapes-in-manipur-theres-a-silence-at-the-heart-of-the-violence/1665212/ - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_qpK02L2eiM - https://theprint.in/india/bulletproof-jackets-made-from-iron-poles-gun-training-how-village-panels-are-guarding-churachandpur/1665208/ Pratap Bhanu Mehta's article is a must-read too - https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/pratap-bhanu-mehta-writes-after-manipur-our-self-serving-morality-8853454/ Share your comments and feedback with us in the comments section or by tweeting at us @uzairyounus and @amberrshamsi. Chapters: 0:00 Introduction 0:50 Key stories from Pakistan 21:12 Understanding the violence in Manipur 22:34 Interview with Ananya Bhardwaj 51:30 Winners and losers
To live the examined life, we have to examine our own desires. Luke Burgis joins Amit Varma in episode 337 of The Seen and the Unseen to share his insights into human nature -- and to talk about his own evolution as a person and a thinker. (FOR FULL LINKED SHOW NOTES, GO TO SEENUNSEEN.IN.) Also check out: 1. Luke Burgis on Twitter, Instagram and his own website. 2. Wanting -- Luke Burgis. 3. Anti-Mimetic -- Luke's newsletter. 4. Ride/Drive -- Another newsletter by Luke. 5. Speaking Out (Of Order) -- Luke Burgis. 6. Podcast Heroes -- Luke Burgis. 7. A Meditation on Form -- Amit Varma. 8. Why Are My Episodes so Long? -- Amit Varma. 9. If You Are a Creator, This Is Your Time -- Amit Varma. 10. On Exactitude in Science — Jorge Luis Borges. 11. Getting out from under the influencers -- Luke Burgis on Look Ma' No Hands, Laura Max Rose's podcast. 12. Marshall McLuhan on Britannica, Wikipedia and Amazon. 13. The Power of Mimetic Desire -- Luke Burgis on The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish. 14. Dietrich von Hildebrand on Wikipedia and Amazon. 15. Leisure: The Basis of Culture -- Josef Pieper. 16. Natasha Badhwar Lives the Examined Life — Episode 301 of The Seen and the Unseen. 17. Dunbar's Number. 18. Imaginary Number — Vijay Seshadri. 19. The Loneliness of the Indian Man — Episode 303 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Nikhil Taneja). 20. The Loneliness of the Indian Woman — Episode 259 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Shrayana Bhattacharya). 21. How the Language of Therapy Took Over Dating -- Dani Blum. 22. The Pathless Path -- Paul Millerd. 23. How To Find Your True Desires -- Luke Burgis on Paul Millerd's Pathless Path podcast. 24. Songs of Surrender -- U2. 25. Gurwinder Bhogal Examines Human Nature -- Episode 331 of The Seen and the Unseen. 26. Gurwinder Bhogal's recent megathread -- and his tweet about the learning pyramid. 27. René Girard on Amazon and Wikipedia. 28. Man's Search For Meaning -- Viktor Frankl. 29. The Gentle Wisdom of Pratap Bhanu Mehta — Episode 300 of The Seen and the Unseen. 30. Mystagogues Wanted -- Luke Burgis. 31. Cormac McCarthy on Amazon. 32. Suyash Rai Embraces India's Complexity -- Episode 307 of The Seen and the Unseen. 33. Religion and Ideology in Indian Society — Episode 124 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Suyash Rai). 34. What People Are Really Doing When They Play Hard to Get -- Luke Burgis. 35. The Two Gentlemen of Verona -- William Shakespeare. 36. Blood Meridian -- Cormac McCarthy. 37. Aesop's Fables. 38. The Crisis of Political Imagination -- Glenn Tinder. 39. A Hidden Life -- Terrence Malick. 40. Paterson -- Jim Jarmusch. Amit Varma and Ajay Shah have launched a new video podcast. Check out Everything is Everything on YouTube. Check out Amit's online course, The Art of Clear Writing. And subscribe to The India Uncut Newsletter. It's free! Episode art: ‘Look' by Simahina.
India is like a caged tiger -- and the cage is unseen by most and difficult to break through. Subhashish Bhadra joins Amit Varma in episode 333 of The Seen and the Unseen to describe the many ways in which the Indian state holds back the Indian people -- and also to introspect on his own journey. (FOR FULL LINKED SHOW NOTES, GO TO SEENUNSEEN.IN.) Also check out: 1. Subhashish Bhadra on LinkedIn, Instagram and Twitter. 2. Caged Tiger: How Too Much Government Is Holding Indians Back -- Subhashish Bhadra. 3. Freedom at Midnight -- Larry Collins and Dominique Lapierre. 4. The Universe of Chuck Gopal — Episode 258 of The Seen and the Unseen. 5. Wherever I Lay My Hat (That's My Home) -- Marvin Gaye. 6. From Cairo to Delhi With Max Rodenbeck — Episode 281 of The Seen and the Unseen. 7. The Rooted Cosmopolitanism of Sugata Srinivasaraju — Episode 277 of The Seen and the Unseen. 8. Amitava Kumar Finds the Breath of Life — Episode 265 of The Seen and the Unseen. 9. Yeh Honsla -- Song from Dor. 10. Gurwinder Bhogal Examines Human Nature -- Episode 331 of The Seen and the Unseen. 11. The Perils of Audience Capture — Gurwinder Bhogal. 12. Episodes of The Seen and the Unseen with Ajay Shah: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10. 13. The State of Our Farmers — Episode 86 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Gunvant Patil). 14. The Indian State Is the Greatest Enemy of the Indian Farmer -- Amit Varma. 15. Power and Prosperity — Mancur Olson. 16. A Tale Of Two Bandits: Naxals And The Indian State -- Amit Varma. 17. The First Assault on Our Constitution — Episode 194 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Tripurdaman Singh). 18. Sixteen Stormy Days — Tripurdaman Singh. 19. The Narrow Corridor: How Nations Struggle for Liberty -- Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson. 20. Paul Graham's essays. 21. Malevolent Republic — Kapil Komireddi. 22. Who Broke Our Republic? — Episode 163 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Kapil Komireddi). 23. A New Idea of India -- Harsh Madhusudan and Rajeev Mantri. 24. In Service of the Republic — Vijay Kelkar & Ajay Shah. 25. The Art and Science of Economic Policy — Ep 154 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Vijay Kelkar & Ajay Shah). 26. The Transformative Constitution -- Gautam Bhatia. 27. The Great Repression — Chitranshul Sinha. 28. India's Sedition Law — Episode 146 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Chitranshul Sinha). 29. Georges Simenon on Amazon. 30. The Road to Serfdom — Friedrich Hayek. 31. Leviathan -- Thomas Hobbes. 32. India's Greatest Civil Servant — Episode 167 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Narayani Basu, on VP Menon). 33. Emergency Chronicles — Gyan Prakash. 34. Gyan Prakash on the Emergency — Episode 103 of The Seen and the Unseen. 35. Participatory Democracy — Episode 160 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ashwin Mahesh). 36. Minimum government, maximum governance: A manifesto for a limited state -- Reuben Abraham and Vivek Dehejia. 37. We Are Fighting Two Disasters: Covid-19 and the Indian State -- Amit Varma. 38. India's Far From Free Markets (2005) -- Amit Varma in the Wall Street Journal. 39. India's Lost Decade — Episode 116 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Puja Mehra). 40. The Lost Decade — Puja Mehra. 41. The Great Redistribution — Amit Varma. 42. The Delhi Smog — Ep 40 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Vivek Kaul). 43. The Tragedy of Our Farm Bills — Episode 211 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ajay Shah). 44. The Emergency: A Personal History — Coomi Kapoor. 45. Coomi Kapoor Has the Inside Track — Episode 305 of The Seen and the Unseen. 46. Memories of a Father -- TV Eachara Varier. 47. Flying Spaghetti Monster. 48. Don't Insult Pasta (2007) — Amit Varma. 49. Republic of Rhetoric: Free Speech and the Constitution of India -- Abhinav Chandrachud. 50. South India Would Like to Have a Word — Episode 320 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Nilakantan RS). 51. 21 Lessons for the 21st Century -- Yuval Noah Harari. 52. Rethinking Public Institutions in India -- Edited by Devesh Kapur, Pratap Bhanu Mehta and Milan Vaishnav. 53. Black Mirror on Netflix. Check out Amit's online course, The Art of Clear Writing. And subscribe to The India Uncut Newsletter. It's free! Episode art: ‘Cage' by Simahina.
Leaders come and go, but institutions stay forever. This is the central takeaway of a new book by Subhashish Bhadra, Caged Tiger: How Too Much Government Is Holding Indians Back.Subhashish is an economist whose career has straddled both the policy and corporate worlds. He has worked at a leading global management consulting firm, a venture capital firm, and a tech start-up, working closely with CEOs, entrepreneurs, bureaucrats, politicians and academics throughout his career.His new book is a call to action that encourages Indians to move beyond their fixation with leaders and focus instead on building strong state institutions. While discussions of state capacity are typically the stuff of academic conference rooms and think tank seminars, Bhadra believes they should be at the core of everyday discussions Indians have on the future of their democracy.Subhashish joins Milan on the show this week to discuss his motivations for writing the book, the institutional flaws in Indian democracy, the need for a new “social contract” on welfare, and the appropriate balance between states and markets in India. Plus, Subhashish explains what ordinary citizens can do to change the status quo. Episode notes:Anirudh Burman, “Resisting the Leviathan: The Key Change in India's New Proposal to Protect Personal Data,” Carnegie India, November 28, 2022.Vijay Kelkar and Ajay Shah, In Service of the Republic: The Art and Science of Economic Policy (New Delhi: Penguin India, 2022).Devesh Kapur, Pratap Bhanu Mehta, and Milan Vaishnav, eds. Rethinking Public Institutions in India (New Delhi: Oxford University Press, 2017).
Global Policy Watch: Much Ado About De-dollarisationReflections on global policy issues— RSJThis week, Donald Trump urged Republican lawmakers to let the U.S. default on its debt if the Democrats don't agree on massive budget cuts. Trump likened the people running the U.S. treasury to ‘drunken sailors', an epithet I can get behind. Default is not something Janet Yellen, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, can even begin to imagine. As CNBC reported, Yellen chose strong words to express her views if the debt ceiling was not raised by the House:“The notion of defaulting on our debt is something that would so badly undermine the U.S. and global economy that I think it should be regarded by everyone as unthinkable,” she told reporters. “America should never default.”When asked about steps the Biden administration could take in the wake of a default, Yellen emphasized that lawmakers must raise the debt ceiling.“There is no good alternative that will save us from catastrophe. I don't want to get into ranking which bad alternative is better than others, but the only reasonable thing is to raise the debt ceiling and to avoid the dreadful consequences that will come,” she told reporters, noting that defaulting on debt can be prevented.There is more than a grain of truth there in some of her apparent hyperbole. The U.S. hegemony in the global financial system runs on trust that they won't default on their debt. Take that trust out of the equation, and what have you got left? This is somewhat more salient in these times when there's a talk of de-dollarisation going around. Russia and China have been keen to trade in their own currencies between themselves and other partners who are amenable to this idea. And they have found some traction in this idea from other countries who aren't exactly bit players in the global economy. In March this year, the yuan overtook the dollar in being the predominant currency used for cross-border transactions in China. Here's a quick run-through of what different countries have been doing to reduce their dollar dependence. Russia and Saudi Arabia are using yuan to settle payments for gas and oil trade. Russia offloaded a lot of US dollars in its foreign reserves before the start of the war and replaced it with gold and yuan. It will possibly continue building yuan reserves in future. Brazil is already doing trade settlements in yuan and is also using the CIPS (China's response to US-dominated SWIFT) for international financial messaging services. Argentina and Thailand seem to be also doing more of their trade with China in yuan. And I'm not including the likes of Pakistan, Bangladesh and other smaller economies that have politically or economically tied themselves up with China and are following suit. And a few weeks back, the French President, Emmanuel Macron, also raised the issue of strategic autonomy of the EU after his visit to Beijing. As Politico reported:Macron also argued that Europe had increased its dependency on the U.S. for weapons and energy and must now focus on boosting European defense industries. He also suggested Europe should reduce its dependence on the “extraterritoriality of the U.S. dollar,” a key policy objective of both Moscow and Beijing. “If the tensions between the two superpowers heat up … we won't have the time nor the resources to finance our strategic autonomy and we will become vassals,” he said.You get the picture. This idea of de-dollarisation seems to be gaining traction. How real is this possibility? There are possibly three lenses to look at this issue, and we will cover them in this edition.Why the recent hate for the dollar?A useful area to start with is to understand where this desire to find alternatives to the dollar is emerging. I mean, it is obvious why Russia and China are doing it and the way the U.S. used its dominance over the financial system to shut out Russia. Companies were barred from trading with Russia, Russian banks couldn't access SWIFT and networks like Visa and Mastercard stopped their operations. Russia got the message but so did other large economies that didn't think of themselves firmly in the U.S. camp. ‘What if' questions began circulating among policymakers there. What if, in future, a somewhat unpredictable U.S. president decides to do this to us? And once you start building these scenarios, you soon realise the extent of dependence the global financial system has on not just the dollar but, beyond it, to the infrastructure and rules of the game developed by the U.S. corporations. There's been a measured retreat ever since. In India, a visible example of this has been the push toward Rupay by the regulator and the government in lieu of Visa and Mastercard. But merely looking at the U.S. response to Russia as the reason would be missing the longer-term trend. In his book ‘Bucking the Buck', Daniel McDowell shows data on the annual number of executive orders that instruct the US Treasury to enforce financial sanctions against specially designated nationals (SDNs). These were rarities in the 70s. By the early 2000s, such annual orders were in their low twenties and in the last few years, they have reached the three-figure mark. It is clear that the U.S. is using its enormous clout as the owner of the global reserve currency and financial infrastructure to punish those who fall out of line. This is war by other means. Interestingly, this ‘sanctions happy' behaviour in the last decade coincided with a wave of populist leaders coming into power in many countries who would not like to be seen as weak or held to ransom by the U.S. This has meant these states have used strategic autonomy as a plank to pursue their interests to go around the U.S. built system. I don't see this trend abating any time soon. The future U.S. administrations will continue to use financial coercion as a tool because it appears bloodless, and the larger economies will continue freeing themselves from this hegemony one system at a time. The tough and fortuitous road to becoming a reserve currencyBut does that mean we will eventually end up with de-dollarisation? Well, there are two things to appreciate here. How does a currency become a reserve currency? How did the dollar become one? And once it does, what keeps it there? If you go back a little over a hundred years, most countries in the world pegged their currencies to gold as a means of facilitating cross-border trade and stabilising currencies. But during World War 1, it became difficult for these countries to fund their war expenses without printing paper money and devaluing their currencies. Britain continued adhering to the gold standard, but it was difficult for it to sustain its war efforts too. It had to borrow to run its expenses during and after WWI. Between the two wars, the U.S. became a huge exporter of goods and armament to the rest of the world, and it took the payment in gold. By the time World War 2 was ending, the U.S. had hoarded most of the world's gold, which made going back to the gold standard impossible because other countries just didn't have any gold. When the allied nations met at Bretton Woods to discuss the new financial world order after the war, it became quite clear that the only real option of managing a foreign exchange system was one that would have all other currencies pegged to the dollar, which would then be linked to gold. It is important to understand that there was no specific effort made to replace Pound as the international reserve currency. It just became inevitable, given the mix of circumstances. Around the same time and for a decade after, the U.S. led the post-war reconstruction efforts in Western Europe and Japan, which gave it a political clout that was unmatched. This political dominance, along with the remnants of the Bretton Woods agreement, is what runs the global currency system in our times, though, in the 70s, the U.S. delinked the dollar from gold as well. That led to the floating exchange rates system that exists today and the dollarisation of the global economy. Over time countries learnt to accumulate their foreign exchange reserves in dollars by buying U.S. treasury bills. Together with the IMF and WB and the associated ecosystem that got built around the U.S. dollar, it became the force that it is today. Now for any currency to replace the U.S. dollar, it has to have the happy coincidence of being a dominant political and economic force, a lack of alternatives for the countries and an alternative to Bretton Wood (or a modification of the same) which can replace the current system. It is very difficult to imagine how something like this can happen unless there is a global crisis of a magnitude where a rebaselining of everything becomes the only way ahead. That brings us to the other point on what sustains the dollar as a reserve currency. There are multiple factors at play here. There are, of course, the network effects of the dollar being deeply embedded in so many commercial ecosystems that taking it out is rife with friction and pain. Also, the dollar is fully convertible, which makes it convenient for others to use it as a store of value. It has remained stable; its market is deep and liquid, enabling easy conversion of bonds to cash and vice versa; there exists a mature insurance market to cover currency risks and above all, we have an implicit guarantee that the U.S. will not default on its debt. This is a trust that has been built over the last eight decades because the world believes the U.S. will run a rule-based order with a strong legal framework to ensure no single person can override rules or conventions. Yawn when you hear Yuan as the next reserve currency So, how does one see the efforts of China or Russia to wean themselves away from this dollar-dominated system? Will the yuan be able to replace the dollar ever? Apart from the points mentioned above, which led to the dollar being in a unique place in the world in the post-war days and which won't repeat itself any time soon, there are other fundamental issues with the idea of the yuan as a reserve currency. To begin with, it isn't convertible, and China runs a ‘closed' capital account system. It is difficult to move money in and out of the country freely. You will need approvals. The opaque legal system, the authoritarian one-party (one-man) rule and the lack of depth in the yuan market mean it is impossible to imagine any prudent central bank risking its entire foreign exchange reserve in yuan. China could turn into an economic giant by exploiting a global trade order without adhering to its associated political expectations. But to think it could do the same in currency exchange order is a pipe dream. Even the numbers of the recent past bear this out. For all the talk of de-dollarisation, there has been a net sell-off of Chinese government bonds by private players in the last year. No one wants to sit on Chinese bonds if things go south in the global political economy. The central banks around the world who have wanted to diversify away from the dollar in their foreign exchange reserve don't seem to have walked their talk. Even they have been net sellers of Chinese government bonds barring the initial days of the Ukraine war. Lastly, China is still struggling to raise consumption in its economy because, with a closed capital account and surplus capacity, it doesn't know what to do with the surplus yuan. Without consumption going up, it will make things worse if it starts becoming a reserved or a semi-reserve currency for the world. The probability of de-dollarisation seems to be hugely exaggerated at this moment. The alternatives are worse, and for those who complain about the coercive nature of U.S. diplomacy because of their financial clout, wait till you have China with that power. You can check with Sri Lanka for how it feels to be under China's thumb economically. Also, none of the hype around bitcoin, stablecoin or CBDC is ever going to materialise for them to replace the dollar. The recent events have shown the fairly flimsy ground on which the bitcoin exchanges (banks?) run. It is difficult to see the lack of trust to change in a hurry. But this also doesn't mean the trend towards diversification of central banks' reserves will buck soon. The gradual move towards reducing dependence on the dollar and its associated ecosystem will continue. Should the U.S. be worried about this? It shouldn't, really. It draws enormous privilege for being the reserve currency of the world. It makes its job to borrow or access money very easy. And the fact that it is a safe haven means it benefits from every crisis. But it should also be clear that this privilege has hurt its ability to export because the dollar remains stronger than it should. This, in turn, has led to the financialisation of the U.S. economy, with the rich getting richer and an evisceration of the U.S. manufacturing capabilities. Reserve diversification won't be such a bad thing for them. But that might mean a reduction of a few hundred basis points in what central banks hold globally in U.S. treasuries. That won't de-dollarise the world. For that to happen, something catastrophic will need to happen. Maybe that's why Yellen used that word about the possibility of the U.S. defaulting on its debt. That's the kind of self-goal they must avoid. Matsyanyaaya: The Two Equilibria in India-US RelationsBig fish eating small fish = Foreign Policy in action— Pranay KotasthaneThere has been a healthy debate over the last couple of weeks on the state of the India-US relationship. In a Foreign Affairs article, Ashley Tellis, a key figure in the 2005 civil nuclear deal, a well-known realist scholar, and a strong proponent of stronger India-US relations, cast some doubt on the burgeoning partnership. The article, provocatively titled ‘America's bad bet on India', concludes thus: The United States should certainly help India to the degree compatible with American interests. But it should harbor no illusions that its support, no matter how generous, will entice India to join it in any military coalition against China. The relationship with India is fundamentally unlike those that the United States enjoys with its allies. The Biden administration should recognize this reality rather than try to alter it.Tellis reasons that India wants a closer relationship with the US to increase its own national power, not to preserve the liberal international order or to collaborate on mutual defence against China. He further argues that the US ‘generosity' towards India is unlikely to help achieve its strategic aim of securing meaningful military contributions from India to defeat any Chinese aggression in East Asia or the South China Sea. As you would imagine, this article put the cat amongst the pigeons. However, I agree with the fundamental argument. Expectation setting is important, and it is true that India is unlikely to behave like a weaker ally; the US-India relationship will most certainly have some shades that the US-China relationship had between 1980 and 2005. In what seems to be a rejoinder to this article, Ashok Malik—previously a policy advisor in the external affairs ministry—argues that fixating on India's role in a hypothetical war on Taiwan is a wrong question to ask, an imagined roadblock that even the Biden administration isn't overly concerned about. Instead, Malik lists the growing relationship in several domains to conclude that the two administrations are far more sanguine, having figured out an approach to work with each other despite key differences. I agree with this view as well. There's no doubt that the India-US relationship has grown across sectors despite fundamental differences during an ongoing war in Europe. It is easy to. observe the shift in India-US conversations at the policy execution levels. The talks are no longer about the whys but about the hows. Gone are the days when the India-US partnership conversations began with Pakistan and ended with Russia, with the two sides taking potshots at each other in between. The conversations are about debating realistic projects that India and the US could accomplish together in areas such as space, biotechnology, semiconductors, and defence. How, then, can I agree with two seemingly opposing views? Because they aren't mutually exclusive. The India-US relationship is so far behind the production possibility frontier on technology, trade and defence that there are enough low-hanging fruits to pick. And that's exactly what we are seeing now. But if the US president were to change, or if there were to be an escalation around Taiwan, the India-US relationship would likely hit a ceiling that Tellis warns about. In edition #165, I proposed a tri-axis framework to look at the India-US relationship: state-to-state relations, state-to-people relations, and people-to-people relations. There has never been a problem on the people-to-people axis. Like Mr Malik, I, too, think that state-to-state relations have turned a corner. However, it is the state-to-people axis which is the problematic axis. Many Indians still seem to harbour a deep frustration with the American State. On the other hand, many Americans also have doubts about the Indian State as a strategic actor. Finally, it's only the two administrations that can break this ceiling. The trade-offs aren't easy, but they are real. Without the Indian government committing itself to do more to counter the Chinese military threat in the seas, the US is unlikely to transfer cutting-edge technologies. Likewise, unless the US quits its stubbornness to give more Indian products preferential access to its markets or delivers on the asymmetric promises under the technology and defence agreements, India is unlikely to revise its stance. In other words, the stage is set for the Indian PM's official state visit to the US next month. India Policy Watch #1: Generalists vs General EquilibriumInsights on issues relevant to India— Pranay KotasthaneNon-civil services folks who have worked in governments are almost always extremely insightful. Perhaps, their experience working with the bureaucracy gives them a filter to reject impractical ideas, while their breadth of knowledge allows them to take a long-term view of policy ideas. These "scholar-warriors" are often able to get to the root of issues.One such person is Montek Singh Ahluwalia, who was a guest on this week's Ideas of India podcast. Among the many insights he delivers, one that switched a lightbulb on for me was the segment on "generalists vs specialists" in government. While this is an old debate, one that civil service "mains" exam takers would not so fondly recall, this conversation made me think somewhat differently. Responding to a question on the HR problems in government, Ahluwalia says:There's big bias within the government against people wanting to specialize. The IAS' view of itself is, it's a generalist service. This I think is a bit of a colonial hangover. You come from England to rule the country; expertise is looked down upon. But in this day and age, we ought to be encouraging the people who are really into IT—there's no point putting someone who's really made up his mind that he wants to be in IT to have a stint in education and health and road transport and that sort of stuff.At another point in the episode, he begins the journey of a policy reform as follows:In the Indian system, and maybe it's true in all systems, every area is assigned to a ministry, and changes of policy that belong (in a narrow sense) to that area are the responsibility of the ministry. There are two problems here. One is, the functioning of a system as a whole requires you to do more than just add up what needs to be done in each area, because you want to look at what the economist would call a general equilibrium approach. If you want to reach a particular result, you've got to do A over here, B over there, C over there.I think there's a deeper insight at the intersection of these two dimensions. The “generalists vs specialists” debate masks another important dimension of effectiveness—whether the person approaches a problem with general equilibrium thinking or is limited to partial equilibrium analysis.General equilibrium analysis takes into account the long-term interactions of a large number of economic agents. In mathematical terms, it is based on the assumption that several variables can change at once in response to a policy change. Partial equilibrium analysis, on the other hand, focuses narrowly on one sector and a handful of variables. Ahluwalia explains that generalist civil service officers can default to partial equilibrium analysis because they are blinkered by their ministry mandates and interests. For example, few bureaucrats from the Ministry of Commerce will advocate that a unilateral lowering of tariffs will be beneficial to India, even though a general equilibrium analysis says so. However, many specialists also fall into this same trap, albeit for different reasons. An urban planner is likely to hate mixed-use neighbourhoods, while an environmentalist might argue that all mining is evil. These partial equilibria arise from the failure to see the interlinkages across the economy, a crucial aspect of general equilibrium analysis. So, irrespective of whether you are a generalist or a specialist, what matters is whether the bureaucrats are able to approach problems with a general equilibrium mindset. The current government mechanism to move career bureaucrats across ministries through deputations is probably a sub-optimal way to achieve competence in this dimension. The second mechanism is to have intra-ministerial committees or expert committees. Organisations such as the Planning Commission, Niti Aayog, or the PMO are supposed to bring in a general equilibrium mindset as well. The question is which of these bodies is best equipped to do this in this way. Probably, another way to push towards this equilibrium is to have economists and behavioural sociologists in many ministries so that their internal recommendations take a broader view beyond the self-protection of ministerial turfs. PS: There's a nice chapter on “Trace the general equilibrium effects” in In Service of the Republic by Shah & Kelkar.HomeWorkReading and listening recommendations on public policy matters* A Twitter friend asked for book recommendations to understand post-independence Indian economic history. These are the ones that came to mind:* India's Long Road: The Search for Prosperity by Vijay Joshi* India: the Emerging Giant by Arvind Panagariya* India's Tryst with Destiny by Arvind Panagariya and Jagdish Bhagwati* Backstage: The Story Behind India's High Growth Years by Montek Singh Ahluwalia &* Changing India volume, this set is a compilation of Manmohan Singh's papers (reading level: advanced) * [Podcast] This Grand Tamasha episode is a great introduction to internal security in India, backed by the latest research and data on a crucial yet under-discussed topic. * [Podcast] Should there be a caste census? Here's a Puliyabaazi on this topic that's sure to gain more traction as the national election draws near. We present two opposing perspectives, one by Yogendra Yadav and the other by Pratap Bhanu Mehta, before reaching our own divergent conclusions. Listen in and tell us what you think. This is a public episode. 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He gave up a staggeringly successful career to live a quiet life -- and now he shares his wisdom with us. Murali Neelakantan joins Amit Varma in episode 329 of The Seen and the Unseen to talk about the life he has lived and the lessons he has learnt. (FOR FULL LINKED SHOW NOTES, GO TO SEENUNSEEN.IN.) Also check out: 1. Murali Neelankantan on Twitter and LinkedIn. 2. An Idea of a Law School -- NR Madhava Menon, Murali Neelakantan and Sumeet Malik. 3. Akshaya Mukul and the Life of Agyeya -- Episode 324 of The Seen and the Unseen. 4. The Life and Times of Shanta Gokhale — Episode 311 of The Seen and the Unseen. 5. Wanting — Luke Burgis. 6. It is immoral to have children. Here's why — Amit Varma. 7. The Loneliness of the Indian Woman — Episode 259 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Shrayana Bhattacharya). 8. The Life and Times of Mrinal Pande — Episode 263 of The Seen and the Unseen. 9. Sara Rai Inhales Literature — Episode 255 of The Seen and the Unseen. 10. Casino Royale -- Martin Campbell. 11. Schrödinger's cat. 12. Dance Dance For the Halva Waala — Episode 294 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Jai Arjun Singh and Subrat Mohanty). 13. Right to Education: Just another law -- Meera Neelakantan. 14. The Life and Times of Abhinandan Sekhri — Episode 254 of The Seen and the Unseen. 15. The Forgotten Greatness of PV Narasimha Rao — Episode 283 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Vinay Sitapati). 16. The Prem Panicker Files — Episode 217 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Prem Panicker). 17. Major Navneet Vats SM. 18. Lifespan: Why We Age – and Why We Don't Have To — David Sinclair. 19. The Lifespan Podcast by David Sinclair. 20. The Adda at the End of the Universe — Episode 309 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Vikram Sathaye and Roshan Abbas). 21. Loss Aversion. 22. Aandhi -- Gulzar. 23. Nowhere Near -- Yo La Tengo. 24. Dil Hi To Hai Na Sang o Hishat -- Abida Parveen. 25. Ranjish hi Sahi -- Mehdi Hasan. 26. Old Man -- Neil Young. 27. Oscar Wilde on Amazon and Wikipedia. 28. Tum Itna Jo Muskura Rahe Ho -- Jagjit Singh. 29. Bonjour Tristesse -- Françoise Sagan. 30. Everybody Lies — Seth Stephens-Davidowitz. 31. Politics and the Sociopath (2014) — Amit Varma. 32. History of European Morals — WEH Lecky. 33. The Expanding Circle — Peter Singer. 34. Dunbar's number. 35. Rankthings.io by Aella and David. 36. Aella on Twitter and Substack. 37. Ye Humse Na Hoga -- Javed Akhtar. 38. All You Who Sleep Tonight -- Vikram Seth. 39. GCN +. 40. The Gentle Wisdom of Pratap Bhanu Mehta — Episode 300 of The Seen and the Unseen. 41. The Life and Times of Jerry Pinto — Episode 314 of The Seen and the Unseen. 42. SVB, Banking and the State of the Economy -- Episode 323 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ajay Shah and Mohit Satyanand). 43. Ashutosh Salil and the Challenge of Change -- Episode 312 of The Seen and the Unseen. 44. Laws Against Victimless Crimes Should Be Scrapped — Amit Varma. 45. One Bad Law Goes, but Women Remain Second-Class Citizens — Amit Varma. 46. ये लिबरल आख़िर है कौन? — Episode 37 of Puliyabaazi (w Amit Varma, on Hayek). 47. Elite Imitation in Public Policy — Episode 180 of The Seen and the Unseen (on isomorphic mimicry, with Shruti Rajagopalan and Alex Tabarrok). 48. The Long Road From Neeyat to Neeti — Episode 313 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Pranay Kotasthane and Raghu S Jaitley). 49. Narendra Shenoy and Mr Narendra Shenoy — Episode 250 of The Seen and the Unseen. 50. Restaurant Regulations in India — Episode 18 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Madhu Menon). 51. The Wealth of Nations -- Adam Smith. 52. The Theory of Moral Sentiments — Adam Smith. 53. Humesha Der Kar Deta Hoon Main -- Muneer Niazi. 54. The Economics and Politics of Vaccines — Episode 223 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ajay Shah). 55. Rustom -- Tinu Suresh Desai on the Nanavati case. 56. Natasha Badhwar Lives the Examined Life — Episode 301 of The Seen and the Unseen. 57. The Nurture Assumption — Judith Rich Harris. 58. Mohit Satyanand on Twitter and Substack. 59. Episodes of The Seen and the Unseen with Mohit Satyanand: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. 60. Richard Dawkins on unpleasant gods. 61. Pushpesh Pant Feasts on the Buffet of Life -- Episode 326 of The Seen and the Unseen. 62. Three Hundred Verses: Musings on Life, Love and Renunciation -- Bhartrihari. 63. Drug Price Controls -- Episode 29 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Pavan Srinath). 64. The Dark Side of Indian Pharma — Episode 245 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Dinesh Thakur). 65. Bottle of Lies — Katherine Eban. 66. The Truth Pill: The Myth of Drug Regulation in India -- Dinesh Thakur and Prashant Reddy. 67. Fire in the Blood -- Dylan Mohan Gray. 68. New York Stories -- Martin Scorcese, Francis Ford Coppola and Woody Allen. 69. The Ideas of Our Constitution — Episode 164 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Madhav Khosla). 70. Kumārasambhava -- Kalidasa. 71. Quiet: The Power of Introverts in a World That Can't Stop Talking -- Susan Cain. 72. Goodbye, Mr Chips -- Sam Wood. 73. Hitler's SS: Portrait in Evil -- Jim Goddard. 74. What Money Can't Buy -- Michael Sandel. 75. Tum Bilkul Hum Jaise Nikle -- Fehmida Riaz. 76. Kuchh Log Tumhein Samjhaaenge -- Fehmida Riaz. 77. The Four Quadrants of Conformism — Paul Graham. Check out Amit's online course, The Art of Clear Writing. And subscribe to The India Uncut Newsletter. It's free! Episode art: ‘This is the World' by Simahina.
Should caste census be conducted? What will be its benefits? Will it have any negative consequences? Is there any other way to reduce inequality in our society? This week on Puliyabaazi Hindi Podcast, we discuss the contentious issue of caste census. क्या जातीय जनगणना होनी चाहिए? क्या है इसके फ़ायदे और क्या है इसके नुकसान? क्या असमानता को घटाने के और भी तरीके हो सकते है? इस पेचीदा विषय पर आज की पुलियाबाज़ी। References: Yogendra Yadav's article on caste census: https://www.google.com/amp/s/theprint.in/opinion/caste-census-is-important-whether-you-are-for-or-against-reservation/721721/%3famp?bshm=bshqp/2 Pratap Bhanu Mehta's article on caste census: https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/my-caste-and-i/ ***** For More Puliyabaazi on Caste and Affirmative Action ***** Puliyabaazi Ep. 89: सामाजिक न्याय की क़श्मक़श. Affirmative Action in India https://youtu.be/eYj5mL1WenI Puliyabaazi Ep. 29: अम्बेडकर के जातिप्रथा पर विचार: भाग २ https://youtu.be/fb7YavHCY_4 ***************** Write to us at puliyabaazi@gmail.com Hosts: @saurabhchandra @pranaykotas @thescribblebee Puliyabaazi is on these platforms: Twitter: @puliyabaazi Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/puliyabaazi/ Subscribe & listen to the podcast on iTunes, Google Podcasts, Castbox, AudioBoom, YouTube, Spotify or any other podcast app. This Hindi Podcast brings to you in-depth conversations on politics, public policy, technology, philosophy and pretty much everything that is interesting. Presented by tech entrepreneur Saurabh Chandra, public policy researcher Pranay Kotasthane, and writer-cartoonist Khyati Pathak, the show features conversations with experts in a casual yet thoughtful manner.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
India Policy Watch #1: How Not to Let the Opportunity Slip AwayInsights on issues relevant to India — RSJA strange thing happens when you are away on a break. One week you are sitting and wondering how many different things you can write about because of the flurry of events around you. US banks getting into trouble, Rahul Gandhi being denied bail, more curbs on US companies doing business in China, frenetic moves in semiconductor politics - you get the picture. And then you take a break. And everything slows down. First Republic Bank doesn't implode in a matter of hours like SVB. Instead, it drags its feet in a slow-motion death spiral. RBI pauses on its rate increases. Janet Yellen pulls back on US hostility towards China while cooing about how the two economies need one another. Things go to a standstill when you stop looking at the world with a weekly columnist's gaze. It is like the vibe of a still summer day in India takes over everything. Nothing moves. Once back, what does one write about? Well, thematically, there isn't any one thing that will do right now. So, I guess I will cover a few areas that could be of interest.The big story out of India last week was that we might have overtaken China in the population sweepstakes. This was kind of inevitable, and a million people here or there doesn't make a difference in the larger scheme of things. Yet, it is as good a moment as any to reflect on that elusive thing called the India opportunity. Now, we have devoted multiple editions to why having more people is a good thing. Somewhat to my relief, a lot of commentary in the last week has echoed this sentiment. There's the usual comparison of the relatively younger demographics in India with that of China and the advantage of being more aligned geopolitically with the West. And, of course, the governments in India don't do terribly arbitrary things like China did in the past couple of years to the tech sector. On this last point, I have my views, but we are using a really broad brush here, so I will let it pass. The general tone of these articles is that this is India's opportunity to lose—a far cry from my school days when the population was seen as a problem. I have three points to make in this context which are a bit different from the usual view of what India should do not to let this opportunity slip.First, there's the usual prescription that India should industrialise faster to take advantage of this dividend and avoid the middle-income trap. My usual take on this is how well do we know why India couldn't industrialise faster in the last 20 years when China took off. It is not like this is a fresh insight that wasn't known to policymakers then. So, what gets in the way of India to industrialise? My short answer will always be the state. Despite all the hype around Make in India and the rising ease of doing business rankings, it is still quite difficult to start and run a business in India. The state is deeply entrenched in controlling capital in India, and it enjoys the arbitrary power that it has over them that it is impossible to change this with just better optics of ‘single window', tax holidays or investment roadshows. In the last two decades, the state has retreated a bit in some areas, but paradoxically, with greater digitisation, it has more information and, therefore, greater power over industry. My general contention is that the state can continue with its welfarism (or whatever else you may call it) on the social and political front, but for India to industrialise, the state has to retreat on the economic control it wields. This looks very difficult today because the state's first goal is to perpetuate itself. It will require the PM to go back to some of his campaign promises of pre-2014 with real conviction. All Indian politicians of a certain vintage are instinctively socialist. And as the farm reforms saga showed, even a small vocal minority can derail a progressive reform. The other challenge has been the availability of capital for MSMEs to build their business and compete for global orders. For the most part, since 2009, we have had a twin balance sheet problem, and that has meant banks have been very choosy about whom to lend. Add to that the shallowness of the corporate bond market, and we end up having a manufacturing sector low on its ambitions. On this, we might be on a better footing now. Bank and corporate balance sheets are at their robust best, and the public digital infrastructure and GST network make it possible for better underwriting decisions using informational collateral. This is evident in the robust credit offtake reported in the MSME segment across the banking sector in the past year. My view is we will industrialise a bit faster than in the past, but we are going to fall short of the expectations of the kind of industrialisation that's expected for us to increase our per capita income from $2000 to $10,000 in the next 15 years. China traversed that exact journey between 2006-20, so it is possible. And it is possible to do it without making the same mistakes as China, where it went back on its decentralised model of growth that made regions and companies compete with one another to an overly centralised model now that will only hurt it further. We need a very specific retreat of the state from the economy with a regulatory framework that acts as an enabler rather than lording over it in a policing role. These seem to be difficult even for a PM and a party that's hugely popular and has no immediate threat of losing power. We will therefore continue to do a respectable 7 per cent growth over the long run than a tearing 10+ per cent. It is what it is. This growth is good but not good enough to take care of the employment aspirations of the people. So, we will have to contend with high unemployment or underemployment for the foreseeable future. What will compound this is automation and the speed of AI adoption in the industry. One of the things to watch out for is the increasing sophistication of AI tools that could automate the services sector. The short-term evidence of generative AI tools like ChatGPT or Dall-e shows how quickly lower-skilled white-collar jobs could be automated. Also, these tools are now getting ‘consumerised'; that is the AI use cases are no longer restricted to a business-to-business context. This will increase the ability of the end users to use them for their needs directly. And that will reduce opportunities in the services sector, which has been the growth engine of the Indian economy in the post-liberalisation decades. Separately, we have talked about the increasing market concentration among 4-5 corporate groups in India. This trend is only getting stronger, and I have explained in the previous edition how this is different from the ‘national champions' model of the Asian tigers. Simply put, unlike them, these national champions aren't using their monopoly to win in global markets. Concentration is a classic market failure that will eventually lead to higher prices and poor allocation of capital. There's a good argument on this that's been made, of late, on this by Viral Acharya. But it has gotten drowned in the usual nationalistic noise that any criticism of this government brings these days. The usual caution that would have come up at this stage would be about the social risks of a young and aspirational population being unemployed. As I travel across India, I find this risk to be somewhat overblown. The availability of cheap smartphones, cheaper data and a general increase in prosperity mean the youth is forever busy staring at their screens engaged in low-quality entertainment. We will continue to generate low-end services jobs to take care of the top tier of Indian society like the ‘home delivery of everything' model has already shown us. This ‘yajman' system of one rich Indian supporting ten others will be a feature of our economy.Lastly, we must realise that the surplus labour and surplus savings (we are already getting there) that we will have will need to find their use outside of India. We will be one of the few countries in the world to have these together and almost no one will have our scale of surplus labour and savings. Free trade and open borders will therefore play to our advantage. It will be counterproductive to champion protectionism or any kind of swadeshi brand of politics. It will just be bad economics and blunt our edge in the global economy. There is no shortage of things to solve if we want to make use of the demographic dividend. I have read the usual lament on how we must improve the quality of our labour pool, upgrade our education system, improve infrastructure and bring women into the workforce - the list is long. I think these are downstream factors that will mostly get taken care of if the state makes it easier for the enterprises to do business. That retreat when the state has enjoyed having capital under its thumb for decades is mighty difficult. India will do well because there is an overlap of trends that favour it uniquely. The giant leap it so desires will need more than just this happy coincidence to come its way. Course Advertisement: Admissions for the May 2023 cohort of Takshashila's Graduate Certificate in Public Policy programme are now open! Visit this link to apply.PolicWTF: Tariff ki Taareef Mein This section looks at egregious public policies. Policies that make you go: WTF, Did that really happen?— Pranay KotasthaneWe've cried ourselves hoarse that India's position on international trade in electronics is self-defeating. The consensus in India is that high tariffs, heavy customs duties, and other such barriers are a crucial pre-condition for creating world-beating Indian electronics companies. Another edition of this series titled “Tariff ki Tareef Mein” played out last week. On April 17, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) dispute settlement panel ruled that India's imposition of tariffs on mobile phones and electronic components violates its commitment under the Information Technology Act (ITA). The ITA is a plurilateral agreement of the WTO in which the signatories committed to reducing all tariffs and taxes on Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) products. Europe, Japan, and Taiwan raised these disputes separately against India. No surprise, the Indian government plans to challenge the ruling. In fact, government officials are signalling that the ruling won't have any impact because the appellate body of the WTO doesn't have enough judges to hear India's position. India's formal defence is based on two arguments: one is technical, and the other is ideological. The technical argument is that India signed the ITA in 1997 when mobile phones, chargers, and many of the now ubiquitous digital wonders hadn't emerged. So, the recent tariffs on new products that came to life after 1997 do not violate India's ITA commitments. However, a deeper ideological argument underlies the technical argument. The Indian government strongly believes that signing the ITA led to the decline of its domestic electronics industry. And as a result, import tariffs are critical for maintaining the current uptick in domestic electronics production. The commerce ministry website pulls no punches when it says:“India's experience with the ITA has been most discouraging, which almost wiped out the IT industry from India. The real gainer from that agreement has been China which raised its global market share from 2% to 14% between 2000-2011.In light of recent measures taken by the Government to build a sound manufacturing environment in the field of Electronics and Information Technology, this is the time for us to incubate our industry rather than expose it to undue pressures of competition. Accordingly and also keeping in view opinion of domestic IT industry, it has been decided not to participate in the ITA expansion negotiations for the time being.” As this official position indicates, the government seems to have internalised that the ITA was the reason that India's past attempts failed. (That line about incubating the industry rather than exposing it to “undue” pressures of competition transported me to the 1950s.)There are at least three problems with this line of thinking. One, it mistakes correlation for causation. It is true that Chinese companies decimated the domestic Indian manufacturers of cheap mobile phones by 2017. Indian domestic players couldn't match the “features per unit price” that Chinese companies were able to offer. The import of cheaper phones back then benefited millions of Indian consumers. The reason that domestic players couldn't compete wasn't the ITA but that they had no competitive advantage. Their business model relied on rebranding older phones sourced from China. Zero tariffs under ITA, in fact, made it possible for these companies to import components cheaply and climb up the assembly value chain. But without any significant investment in R&D or industrial innovation, these “domestic” players were easily wiped off the market. This story isn't unique to electronic products. Even in segments to which the ITA doesn't apply, such as machine tools, textiles, or toys, Indian companies couldn't stand international competition. Surely, the problem then lies in India's large-scale manufacturing troubles and not in signing the ITA. The much-lampooned ease-of-doing business factors, such as poor infrastructure, byzantine labour and land regulations, and a complicated tax system, can explain why production in India remained a challenge across sectors. Two, protecting domestic players will not produce world-beating champions. This is particularly true for electronics production, which relies heavily on cross-border flows of materials, machines, and humans. To export one type of electronic product, you need to import another type; atmanirbharta is impossible. By disregarding the ITA, products manufactured in India will not be able to compete in the international market. An analysis by the industry body of phone manufacturers shows that higher import tariffs have meant that a large portion of the money companies receives under PLI gets re-routed to pay these tariffs, ultimately making production cost-prohibitive. This is the reason why companies such as Apple have been trying to seek duty exemptions for some electronic components. It is also a major sticking point in the India-Taiwan Free Trade Agreement. A unilateral reduction in tariffs by following ITA is thus in India's interest.Three, India's vehement dismissal of the ITA places it at a disadvantage in future negotiations. India has opted out of the ITA-2 negotiations that sought to expand the list of ICT products on which tariffs were to be reduced. As a big manufacturer, China was able to get favourable exemptions in these negotiations. Instead of reducing tariffs to zero immediately, it was able to extract waivers that give it a gentle gliding path towards zero tariffs. India has a similar opportunity today, given that it is far more integrated into the global supply chain for electronics due to the manufacturing presence of players such as Samsung and Apple. The geopolitical situation, too, is far more favourable. But India's obstinate stance on the ITA makes the question of negotiating waivers a moot one.China signed the ITA in 2003. By then, it already had a strong electronics assembly and manufacturing setup. The ITA supercharged its powers and helped it become a global provider of ICT goods. Twenty years later, India, too, has been able to kickstart electronics assembly. It's now time to approach ITA more confidently instead of falling back to the tested-and-failed tropes of import substitution and infant industry protection. A basic rule of strategy is not to spread too thin on many fronts simultaneously. India's trade strategy seems to ignore this maxim. If our chief adversary is China, it's better to settle trade disputes with the EU, UK, Japan, Taiwan, and the US with minimal friction. Instead, we continue to treat every tariff reduction as a bargaining chip. Missing the woods for the trees shouldn't become India's guiding principle in international trade. Global Policy Watch: What Fed Learnt From SVB Failure Reflection on global policy issues — RSJOn the face of it, quite a lot. A 118-page report. As the Economic Times reports:“The Federal Reserve issued a detailed and scathing assessment on Friday of its failure to identify problems and push for fixes at Silicon Valley Bank before the U.S. lender's collapse, and promised tougher supervision and stricter rules for banks.In what Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr called an "unflinching" review of the U.S. central bank's supervision of SVB, the Fed said its oversight of the Santa Clara, California-based bank was inadequate and that regulatory standards were too low.”It is useful to understand what policy lessons are learnt by a regulator from a setback. SVB was a small bank (16th largest) but a fairly important player in the valley. And it went down in a heap within hours because of a run engineered by the enlightened VCs who asked their investee companies to pull out their deposits. I have covered the saga in a previous edition. In its report, the Fed has identified the reasons for the bank failure, which in hindsight, is clear to everyone now. It points to three broader issues:“First, the combination of social media, a highly networked and concentrated depositor base, and technology may have fundamentally changed the speed of bank runs. Social media enabled depositors to instantly spread concerns about a bank run, and technology enabled immediate withdrawals of funding.Second, as I have previously stated, a firm's distress may have systemic consequences through contagion—where concerns about one firm spread to other firms—even if the firm is not extremely large, highly connected to other financial counterparties, or involved in critical financial services.Third, this experience has emphasised why strong bank capital matters. While the proximate cause of SVB's failure was a liquidity run, the underlying issue was concern about its solvency.”All good, so far. And therefore, the question: So, what have they learnt from it? Well, the key “takeaways” summed up are here:“1. Silicon Valley Bank's board of directors and management failed to manage their risks.2. Supervisors did not fully appreciate the extent of the vulnerabilities as Silicon Valley Bank grew in size and complexity.3. When supervisors did identify vulnerabilities, they did not take sufficient steps to ensure that Silicon Valley Bank fixed those problems quickly enough.4. The Board's tailoring approach in response to the Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief, and Consumer Protection Act (EGRRCPA) and a shift in the stance of supervisory policy impeded effective supervision by reducing standards, increasing complexity, and promoting a less assertive supervisory approach.”The Board and the management take a large portion of the blame. And then it appears like the Fed is holding itself accountable by calling out the weakness in supervisory standards. Till you read the fine print. It is largely throwing a small team of SVB-specific supervisors under the bus, thus making it sound like a specific instance of dereliction of duty. SVB failed because the Fed raised interest rates too quickly without asking what could be the possible risks of such a move. It didn't do its homework for its actions on the banking system. And when it realised the likely vulnerabilities that it hadn't anticipated, it went easy on the rate hikes than the hawkish stand it had taken only a week earlier. Had it been only an SVB-specific issue, what explains the slow unravelling of the First Republic Bank? It is one thing not to anticipate the unintended. It is another not to acknowledge it and search for lessons which won't help you the next time around. Or maybe it knows what went wrong, and it is too proud to admit it went wrong. Either way, it comes out of this poorly. India Policy Watch #2: Devil and the Deep SeaInsights on issues relevant to India — Pranay KotasthaneOver the last couple of weeks, the Congress' new election slogan, “Jitni aabaadi, utna haq”, has caused quite a flutter. Bluntly speaking, it is a pre-election promise to expand reservations for Other Backward Classes (OBC). We've seen this movie before. As was the case with the last election, it means that the grand narrative that's been put forward to counter Hindutva majoritarianism is “backward” caste mobilisation. But this time around, the mobilisation comes with some clear demands: a caste census, an expansion of OBC reservation, and a dedicated ministry for the empowerment of OBCs.In his characteristically edifying column, political scientist Pratap Bhanu Mehta explains why these three demands for caste mobilisation will not translate to social justice. Social justice needs good public institutions of education and inclusive economic growth, combined with strong affirmative action for the Dalits and some deeply marginalised sections of OBCs. Instead, political parties have reduced the logic of “social justice” to one and only one item: expansion of OBC reservation. In his words:“The most important things that are required for social justice do not require caste data. Making quality education available to all, the creation of public goods in which all can participate, the design of welfare or other cash support schemes, the best mix of subsidies and income enhancing measures, and most importantly, an expanding economy that creates mobility do not require the framework of caste. The mistake of the social justice agenda was that it forgot Ambedkar's lesson that to effectively attack caste you have to (for the most part) strongly but indirectly attack the range of material deprivations that make its logic so insidious. Second, we have to express the blunt truth on so much of what went under the name of social justice politics in North India.”…“In my years of dealing with higher education, it was rare to come across a social justice party that shed a single tear for the decimation of public education or the destruction of universities. But all their social justice outrage was focused on the one single point of reservations. So in Bihar you got the RJD that, for all its tapping into the politics of dignity, decimated the governance structures that could have empowered marginalised groups. In UP, under the garb of social justice agenda, we tolerated parties that had little interest in governing. What was called the deepening of democracy in North India did not lead to deepening of governance or inclusive growth.” [The Indian Express, April 21]As you would imagine, that article ruffled many a feather. Writing in the same newspaper, Manoj Kumar Jha (a Rajya Sabha member of RJD) and Ghazala Jamil mounted a defence with these words:“The RJD and other opposition parties that he accuses of reducing social justice to distributing “government largesse based on officially reified caste identities” and “decimating public education and destructing universities” have, in fact, invested heavily in school education systems so that the marginalised sections can simply reach public universities. The quantum of ambition in Bihar's youth for competitive exams for public jobs and their presence in all sectors of the private economy across India and abroad today is a testament to the massification of education, despite suffering from the effects of uneven development and the failure of cooperative federalism.” [The Indian Express, April 27]To claim that RJD and opposition parties' biggest success is increasing the “number of youth writing competitive exams for public jobs” proves Mehta's point. With quotas as the primary instrument of action, government education institutions merely become vehicles to distribute positions along caste lines. Of course, Mehta's article is a lament that the opposition is using one form of majoritarianism to counter another form of majoritarianism. But those in favour are desperate to show that their project is morally superior. Both these views are somewhat orthogonal to how this issue will resonate with the electorate in 2024. As of now, we are stuck with the politics of religion versus the politics of caste.HomeWorkReading and listening recommendations on public policy matters* [Article] Ajay Chibber's take on fiscal decentralisation has useful comparisons:“India's share of sub-national (state plus local) spending at 60 per cent of total spend is quite high at its level of development. Other large federal states spend less. Brazil spends around 50 per cent at the sub-national level, Germany 46 per cent, the United States around 40 per cent, and Indonesia around 35 per cent. Only Canada and China spend more than 70 per cent at the sub-national level. …Going forward, where India must focus is the share of local government, which remains very small. India's local government spend is less than 4 per cent of total government spending. This share is much smaller than in most advanced economies, but also much lower than in centralised authoritarian governments like China, where local government spending exceeds 50 per cent of total spending by government. China is an outlier in this, but in most advanced economies, the share is much higher than in India. The 28 countries in the EU spend 23.2 per cent at the local level, Canada 21 per cent, the US 29 per cent. In Latin America, local government spending is around 12.7 per cent and most analysts feel it should be much higher.” [Business Standard, April 20]In this context, we earlier discussed a framework for decentralisation in edition #186. * [Podcast] A Puliyabaazi on the population question. Is India really overpopulated?* [Paper] The Information Technology Agreement, Manufacturing and Innovation – China's and India's Contrasting Experiences by Dieter Ernst is THE starting point to understand the debate on India's protectionism in electronics. *From the poem Opportunity by Raymond Garfield Dandridge This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit publicpolicy.substack.com
India is run in a top-down way with a Northern bias -- and this is a problem. Nilakantan RS joins Amit Varma in episode 320 of The Seen and the Unseen to discuss how and why our Southern states perform so much better -- and are punished for it. Also discussed: virtue ethics, the charms of Madras and the dangers of storytelling. (FOR FULL LINKED SHOW NOTES, GO TO SEENUNSEEN.IN.) Also check out:1. Nilakantan RS on Twitter, YouTube and Instagram. 2. South vs North: India's Great Divide -- Nilakantan RS. 3. Chandrahas Choudhury's Country of Literature — Episode 288 of The Seen and the Unseen. 4. Lessons in Investing (and Life) — Episode 208 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Deepak Shenoy). 5. Crossing Over With Deepak Shenoy -- Episode 271 of The Seen and the Unseen. 6. Amitava Kumar Finds the Breath of Life — Episode 265 of The Seen and the Unseen. 7. Aadha Gaon — Rahi Masoom Raza.. 8. From Cairo to Delhi With Max Rodenbeck — Episode 281 of The Seen and the Unseen. 9. Phineas Gage. 10. The Great Man Theory of History. 11. Pandemonium in India's Banks — Episode 212 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Tamal Bandyopadhyay). 12. Rukmini Sees India's Multitudes — Episode 261 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Rukmini S). 13. On Bullshit — Harry Frankfurt. 14. The Facts Do Not Matter — Amit Varma. 15. Facts Don't Matter. Stories do -- Amit Varma. 16. It is immoral to have children. Here's why -- Amit Varma. 17. Better Never to Have Been -- David Benator. 18. Wanting — Luke Burgis. 19. René Girard on Amazon and Wikipedia. 20. The Life and Times of Shanta Gokhale — Episode 311 of The Seen and the Unseen. 21. The Gentle Wisdom of Pratap Bhanu Mehta — Episode 300 of The Seen and the Unseen. 22. Beyond Words: Philosophy, Fiction, and the Unsayable -- Timothy Cleveland. 23. Consider the Hamiltonian. 24. The Life and Times of Jerry Pinto — Episode 314 of The Seen and the Unseen. 25. Murder in Mahim — Jerry Pinto. 26. Mallikarjun Mansur and Bhimsen Joshi on Spotify. 26. Paul Krugman on the internet in 1998. 27. The naked man with an egg -- Amit Varma's prompt and ChatGPT's reply. 28. The Liberal Nationalism of Nitin Pai -- Episode 318 of The Seen and the Unseen. 29. The Rooted Cosmopolitanism of Sugata Srinivasaraju — Episode 277 of The Seen and the Unseen. 30. Adam Gopnik, Michel Martin, Paul Harding and Timothy Gowers. 31. Tinkers -- Paul Harding. 32. Eraserhead -- David Lynch. 33. There's a Name for the Blah You're Feeling: It's Called Languishing -- Adam Grant. 34. The variants on Chess.com. 35. A Summons to Memphis -- Peter Taylor. 36. Virtue Ethics on Wikipedia, Britannica and Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. 37. VP Menon: The Unsung Architect of Modern India — Narayani Basu. 38. India's Greatest Civil Servant — Episode 167 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Narayani Basu). 39. A Venture Capitalist Looks at the World — Episode 213 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Sajith Pai). 40. The Indus Valley Playbook — Sajith Pai. 41. Fixing Indian Education — Episode 185 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Karthik Muralidharan). 42. Understanding Indian Healthcare — Episode 225 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Karthik Muralidharan). 43. Karthik Muralidharan Examines the Indian State — Episode 290 of The Seen and the Unseen. 44. Our Unlucky Children (2008) — Amit Varma. 45. Fund Schooling, Not Schools (2007) — Amit Varma. 46. Elite Imitation in Public Policy — Episode 180 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Shruti Rajagopalan and Alex Tabarrok). 47. Centrally Sponsored Government Schemes — Episode 17 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Pranay Kotasthane). 48. Population Is Not a Problem, but Our Greatest Strength — Amit Varma. 49. Arrow's Impossibility Theorem. 50. Athenian Democracy and Socrates. 51. Plato (or Why Philosophy Matters) -- Episode 109 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Rebecca Goldstein). 52. Our Parliament and Our Democracy — Episode 253 of The Seen and the Unseen (w MR Madhavan). 53. The Anti-Defection Law — Episode 13 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Barun Mitra).. 54. Urban Governance in India — Episode 31 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Shruti Rajagopalan). 55. Gopal Krishna Gokhale, Mahadev Govind Ranade and Gopal Ganesh Agarkar. 56. Episodes of The Seen and the Unseen on the creator ecosystem with Roshan Abbas, Varun Duggirala, Neelesh Misra, Snehal Pradhan, Chuck Gopal, Nishant Jain, Deepak Shenoy, Abhijit Bhaduri and Gaurav Chintamani. 57. The Walk -- Robert Walser. 58. So Long, See You Tomorrow -- William Maxwell. 59. All Aunt Hagar's Children -- Edward P Jones. 60. The Known World -- Edward P Jones. 61. Slow Man -- JM Coetzee. 62. The Changeling -- Kenzaburo Oe. 63. Earthlings -- Sayaka Murata. 64. Birth of a Theorem -- Cedric Villani. 65. Gilead -- Marilynne Robinson. 66. If I Survive You -- Jonathan Escoffery. 67. Donnie Darko -- Richard Kelly. Check out Amit's online course, The Art of Clear Writing. And subscribe to The India Uncut Newsletter. It's free! Episode art: ‘Conflict' by Simahina.
The task of nation-building did not end with our founders, and does not stop at our politicians. It's up to us to build the India we want to see. Nitin Pai joins Amit Varma in episode 318 of The Seen and the Unseen to talk about his life, his learnings and his liberal nationalism. (FOR FULL LINKED SHOW NOTES, GO TO SEENUNSEEN.IN.) Also check out: 1. Nitin Pai on his own website, Mint & Mastodon . 2. The Nitopadesha -- Moral Tales for Good Citizens. 3. The archives of The Acorn, Nitin Pai's blog. And its current avatar. 4. Nitin Pai's ideas, notes and current research and teaching. 5. The Takshashila Institution. 6. Seven Tenets of Indian Nationalism -- Nitin Pai. 7. In support of a liberal nationalism -- Nitin Pai. 8. A republic - if we can keep it -- Nitin Pai. 9. Saving the Nation From Nationalists -- Nitin Pai. 10. The real problem is that we have too little republic -- Nitin Pai. 11. The operating system of liberal democracy needs a major upgrade -- Nitin Pai. 12. Social harmony is a matter of national interest -- Nitin Pai. 13. Liberal democracies must protect their citizens' minds from being hacked -- Nitin Pai. 14. Understanding Foreign Policy — Episode 63 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Nitin Pai). 15. Russia, Ukraine, Foreign Policy -- Episode 268 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Pranay Kotasthane and Nitin Pai). 16. The City and the City — China Miéville. 17. The State of Our Economy -- Episode 252 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Puja Mehra and Mohit Satyanand). 18. The Tragedy of Our Farm Bills — Episode 211 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ajay Shah). 19. Who We Are and How We Got Here — David Reich. 20. Early Indians — Tony Joseph. 21. Early Indians — Episode 112 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Tony Joseph). 22. The Moral Arc: How Science Makes Us Better People — Michael Shermer. 23. History of European Morals — WEH Lecky. 24. The Expanding Circle: Ethics, Evolution, and Moral Progress — Peter Singer. 25. How the BJP Wins — Prashant Jha. 26. The BJP's Magic Formula — Episode 45 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Prashant Jha). 27. Caste, Capitalism and Chandra Bhan Prasad — Episode 296 of The Seen and the Unseen. 28. Episodes of The Seen and the Unseen w Pranay Kotasthane: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10. 29. Rohini Nilekani Pays It Forward -- Episode 317 of The Seen and the Unseen. 30. Samaaj, Sarkaar, Bazaar : A citizen-first approach — Rohini Nilekani. 31. The Crowd: A Study of the Popular Mind — Gustave le Bon. 32. Crowds and Power — Elias Canetti. 33. EO Wilson on Amazon, Wikipedia and Britannica. 34. Narendra Modi takes a Great Leap Backwards — Amit Varma (on Modi, Mao and locusts). 35. FAQ: Why Anna Hazare is wrong and Lok Pal a bad idea -- Nitin Pai. 36. Sadanand Dhume on Twitter -- and this podcast! 37. Social media is an existential threat to civilisation -- Nitin Pai. 38. Reframing the social media policy debate -- Nitin Pai. 39. The coming regulation of social media is an opportunity for India -- Nitin Pai. 40. The Double ‘Thank-You' Moment — John Stossel. 41. Thinking Fast and Slow — Daniel Kahneman. 42. Human — Michael S Gazzaniga. 43. The Interpreter — Amit Varma. 44. The Elephant in the Brain -- Kevin Simler and Robin Hanson. 45. Freedom to Think -- Susie Alegre. 46. Addiction by Design: Machine Gambling in Las Vegas — Natasha Dow Schüll. 47. The Importance of the 1991 Reforms — Episode 237 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Shruti Rajagopalan and Ajay Shah). 48. The Forgotten Greatness of PV Narasimha Rao — Episode 283 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Vinay Sitapati). 49. The Life and Times of Montek Singh Ahluwalia — Episode 285 of The Seen and the Unseen. 50. The original Takshashila. 51. Understanding Gandhi. Part 1: Mohandas — Episode 104 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ram Guha). 52. Understanding Gandhi. Part 2: Mahatma — Episode 105 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ram Guha). 53. Hind Swaraj — MK Gandhi. 54. Nikita -- Elton John. 55. The Importance of Cities — Episode 108 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Reuben Abraham & Pritika Hingorani). 56. The Gentle Wisdom of Pratap Bhanu Mehta -- Episode 300 of The Seen and the Unseen. 57. The Arthashastra -- Kautilya 58. On Exactitude in Science — Jorge Luis Borges. 59. Emergent Ventures. 60. Friedrich Hayek on Wikipedia, Britannica, Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy and Econlib. 61. Milton Friedman on Amazon, Wikipedia, Britannica and Econlib. 62. Arshia Sattar and the Complex Search for Dharma -- Episode 315 of The Seen and the Unseen. 63. Every Act of Government Is an Act of Violence — Amit Varma. 64. The Generation of Rage in Kashmir — David Devadas. 65. Counterinsurgency Warfare — David Galula. 66. We Won't Need To Fight A War If We Can Win The Peace — Amit Varma. 67. Kashmir and Article 370 -- Episode 134 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Srinath Raghavan). 68. Think the Unthinkable (2008) -- Vir Sanghvi. 69. Independence Day for Kashmir (2008) -- Swaminathan S Anklesaria Aiyar. 70. The Anti-Defection Law — Episode 13 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Barun Mitra). 71. Our Parliament and Our Democracy — Episode 253 of The Seen and the Unseen (w MR Madhavan). 72. Abby Philips Fights for Science and Medicine — Episode 310 of The Seen and the Unseen. 73. Why Read the Classics? — Italo Calvino. 74. History Of Western Philosophy -- Bertrand Russell. 75. Ideas: A History from Fire to Freud -- Peter Watson. 76. Arthashastra -- Kautilya (translated by Shama Shastri). 77. The Upanishads. 78. The Mahabharata -- translated by Bibek Debroy. 79. Brihatkatha, Kathasaritsagara, Panchatantra and Hitopadesha. 80. Charvaka and Jayarāśi Bhaṭṭa. 81. Tattvopaplavasiṃha -- Jayarāśi Bhaṭṭa. 82. The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy -- Douglas Adams. 83. Catch 22 -- Joseph Heller. 84. Commanding Hope -- Thomas Homer-Dixon. 85. Paul Auster, David Mitchell, Haruki Murakami, Ryu Murakami and Terry Pratchett on Amazon. 86. Piercing -- Ryu Murakami. 87. 2021 - The Year in Fiction -- Nitin Pai. 88. Bhimsen Joshi, Kishore Kumar, Hemant Kumar, Radiohead, Norah Jones, Louis Armstrong, Nina Simone, Himesh Reshammiya and Yehudi Menuhin on Spotify. 89. Take Five -- The Dave Brubeck Quartet. Check out Amit's online course, The Art of Clear Writing. And subscribe to The India Uncut Newsletter. It's free! Episode art: ‘The Bigger Picture' by Simahina.
Poet, novelist, translator, journalist, crime fiction writer, children's book author, teacher, math tutor: now here is a man who contains multitudes. Jerry Pinto joins Amit Varma in episode 314 of The Seen and the Unseen to talk about his life and learnings. (FOR FULL LINKED SHOW NOTES, GO TO SEENUNSEEN.IN.) Also check out: 1. Jerry Pinto on Instagram, Amazon and his own website. 2. Em and the Big Hoom -- Jerry Pinto. 3. The Education of Yuri -- Jerry Pinto. 4. Murder in Mahim -- Jerry Pinto. 5. A Book of Light -- Edited by Jerry Pinto. 6. Baluta -- Daya Pawar (translated by Jerry Pinto). 7. I Have Not Seen Mandu -- Swadesh Deepak (translated by Jerry Pinto). 8. Cobalt Blue -- Sachin Kundalkar (translated by Jerry Pinto). 9. The Life and Times of Shanta Gokhale -- Episode 311 of The Seen and the Unseen. 10. ‘Sometimes I feel I have to be completely invisible as a poet' -- Jerry Pinto's interview of Adil Jussawalla. 11. A Godless Congregation — Amit Varma. 12. The Rooted Cosmopolitanism of Sugata Srinivasaraju — Episode 277 of The Seen and the Unseen. 13. The Big Questions — Steven E Landsburg. 14. Unlikely is Inevitable — Amit Varma. 15. The Law of Truly Large Numbers. 16. The Gentle Wisdom of Pratap Bhanu Mehta — Episode 300 of The Seen and the Unseen. 17. Young India — Episode 83 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Snigdha Poonam). 18. Dreamers — Snigdha Poonam. 19. The Loneliness of the Indian Man — Episode 303 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Nikhil Taneja). 20. The History Boys -- Alan Bennett. 21. The Connell Guide to How to Write Well -- Tim de Lisle. 22. Thinking Better: The Art of the Shortcut -- Marcus Du Sautoy. 23. Dead Poet's Society -- Peter Weir. 24. A Mathematician's Apology -- GH Hardy. 25. The Man Who Knew Infinity -- Robert Kanigel. 26. David Berlinski and Martin Gardner on Amazon, and Mukul Sharma on Wikipedia.. 27. Range Rover -- The archives of Amit Varma's column on poker for The Economic Times. 28. Luck is All Around -- Amit Varma. 29. Stoicism on Wikipedia, Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy and Britannica. 30. House of the Dead — Fyodor Dostoevsky. 31. Black Beauty -- Anna Sewell. 32. Lady Chatterley's Lover -- DH Lawrence. 33. Mr Norris Changes Trains -- Chistopher Isherwood. 34. Sigrid Undset on Amazon and Wikipedia. 35. Some Prefer Nettles -- Junichiro Tanizaki. 36. Things Fall Apart — Chinua Achebe. 37. Jane Austen and Thomas Hardy on Amazon. 38. Orientalism -- Edward Said. 39. Edgar Allan Poe, Nathaniel Hawthorne and Kurt Vonnegut on Amazon. 40. Johnny Got His Gun -- Dalton Trumbo. 41. Selected Poems -- Kamala Das. 42. Collected Poems -- Kamala Das. 43. In Which Annie Gives It Those Ones — Pradip Krishen. 44. Dance Dance For the Halva Waala — Episode 294 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Jai Arjun Singh and Subrat Mohanty). 45. Tosca -- Giacomo Puccini. 46. Civilisation by Kenneth Clark on YouTube and Wikipedia. 47. Archives of The World This Week. 48. Dardi Rab Rab Kardi -- Daler Mehndi. 49. Is Old Music Killing New Music? — Ted Gioia. 50. Mother India (Mehboob Khan) and Mughal-E-Azam (K Asif). 51. A Meditation on Form — Amit Varma. 52. Sara Rai Inhales Literature — Episode 255 of The Seen and the Unseen. 53. Collected Poems — Mark Strand. 54. Forgive Me, Mother -- Eunice de Souza. 55. Porphyria's Lover -- Robert Browning. 56. Island -- Nissim Ezekiel. 57. Paper Menagerie — Ken Liu. 58. Jhumpa Lahiri on Writing, Translation, and Crossing Between Cultures — Episode 17 of Conversations With Tyler. 59. The Notebook Trilogy — Agota Kristof. 60. Amitava Kumar Finds the Breath of Life — Episode 265 of The Seen and the Unseen. 61. The Blue Book: A Writer's Journal — Amitava Kumar. 62. Nissim Ezekiel on Amazon, Wikipedia and All Poetry. 63. Adil Jussawalla on Amazon, Wikipedia and Poetry International. 64. Eunice de Souza on Amazon, Wikipedia and Poetry International. 65. Dom Moraes on Amazon, Wikipedia and Poem Hunter. 66. WH Auden and Stephen Spender on Amazon. 67. Pilloo Pochkhanawala on Wikipedia and JNAF. 68. Arvind Krishna Mehrotra on Amazon, Wikipedia and Poetry Foundation. 69. Amar Akbar Anthony -- Manmohan Desai. 67. Ranjit Hoskote on Amazon, Instagram, Twitter, Wikipedia and Poetry International. 71. Arundhathi Subramaniam on Amazon, Instagram, Wikipedia, Poetry International and her own website. 72. The Red Wheelbarrow -- William Carlos Williams. 73. Mary Oliver's analysis of The Red Wheelbarrow. 74. A Poetry Handbook — Mary Oliver. 75. The War Against Cliche -- Martin Amis. 76. Seamus Heaney on Amazon, Wikipedia and Poetry Foundation. 77. The world behind 'Em and the Big Hoom' -- Jerry Pinto interviewed by Swetha Amit. 78. Jerry Pinto interviewed for the New York Times by Max Bearak. 79. Salman Rushdie, Amitav Ghosh and GV Desani on Amazon. 80. Episodes of The Seen and the Unseen on the creator ecosystem with Roshan Abbas, Varun Duggirala, Neelesh Misra, Snehal Pradhan, Chuck Gopal, Nishant Jain, Deepak Shenoy and Abhijit Bhaduri. 81. Graham Greene, W Somerset Maugham and Aldous Huxley on Amazon. 82. Surviving Men -- Shobhaa De. 83. Surviving Men -- Jerry Pinto. 84. The Essays of GK Chesterton. 85. The Life and Times of Nilanjana Roy — Episode 284 of The Seen and the Unseen. 86. City Improbable: Writings on Delhi -- Edited by Khushwant Singh. 87. Bombay, Meri Jaan -- Edited by Jerry Pinto and Naresh Fernandes. 88. The Life and Times of Urvashi Butalia — Episode 287 of The Seen and the Unseen. 89. Films, Feminism, Paromita — Episode 155 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Paromita Vohra). 90. Wanting -- Luke Burgis. 91. Kalpish Ratna and Sjowall & Wahloo on Amazon. 92. Memories and Things — Episode 195 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Aanchal Malhotra). 93. Ashad ka Ek Din -- Mohan Rakesh. 94. Anna Karenina -- Leo Tolstoy (translated by Constance Garnett). 95. Gordon Lish: ‘Had I not revised Carver, would he be paid the attention given him? Baloney!' -- Christian Lorentzen.. 96. Sooraj Barjatya and Yash Chopra. 97. The Life and Times of Mrinal Pande — Episode 263 of The Seen and the Unseen. 98. Don't think too much of yourself. You're an accident — Amit Varma. 99. Phineas Gage. 100. Georges Simenon on Amazon and Wikipedia.. 101. The Interpreter -- Amit Varma on Michael Gazzaniga's iconic neuroscience experiment. 102. The Life and Times of Abhinandan Sekhri — Episode 254 of The Seen and the Unseen.. 103. Madame Bovary -- Gustave Flaubert. 104. Self-Portrait — AK Ramanujan. 105. Ivan Turgenev, Ryu Murakami and Patricia Highsmith on Amazon. 106. A Clockwork Orange -- Anthony Burgess. 107. On Exactitude in Science — Jorge Luis Borges. 110. Playwright at the Centre: Marathi Drama from 1843 to the Present — Shanta Gokhale. 111. Kubla Khan -- Samuel Taylor Coleridge. 112. Girish Shahane, Naresh Fernandes, Suketu Mehta, David Godwin and Kiran Desai. 113. The Count of Monte Cristo -- Alexandre Dumas. 114. Pedro Almodóvar and Yasujirō Ozu. 115. The Art of Translation — Episode 168 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Arunava Sinha). 116. The Lives of the Poets -- Samuel Johnson. 117. Lives of the Women -- Various authors, edited by Jerry Pinto. 118. Lessons from an Ankhon Dekhi Prime Minister — Amit Varma. 119. On Bullshit — Harry Frankfurt. 120. The Facts Do Not Matter — Amit Varma. 121. Beware of the Useful Idiots — Amit Varma. 122. Modi's Lost Opportunity — Episode 119 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Salman Soz). 123. Kesavananda Bharati v. State of Kerala. 124. The Importance of Data Journalism — Episode 196 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Rukmini S). 125. Rukmini Sees India's Multitudes — Episode 261 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Rukmini S). 126. Pramit Bhattacharya Believes in Just One Ism — Episode 256 of The Seen and the Unseen. 127. Listen, The Internet Has SPACE -- Amit Varma.. 128. Fixing Indian Education — Episode 185 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Karthik Muralidharan). 129. The Reflections of Samarth Bansal — Episode 299 of The Seen and the Unseen. 130. The Saturdays -- Elizabeth Enwright. 131. Summer of My German Soldier -- Bette Greene. 132. I am David -- Anne Holm. 133. Tove Jannson and Beatrix Potter on Amazon. 134. The Hobbit and The Lord of the Rings -- JRR Tolkien. 135. Darkness Visible: A Memoir of Madness -- William Styron. 136. An Unquiet Mind: A Memoir of Moods and Madness -- Kay Redfield Jamison. 137. Searching for Swadesh -- Nirupama Dutt.. 138. Parsai Rachanawali -- Harishankar Parsai. 139. Not Dark Yet (official) (newly released outtake) -- Bob Dylan.. 140. How This Nobel Has Redefined Literature -- Amit Varma on Dylan winning the Nobel Prize.. 141. The New World Upon Us — Amit Varma. 142. PG Wodehouse on Amazon and Wikipedia. 143. I Heard the Owl Call My Name -- Margaret Craven. 144. 84, Charing Cross Road -- Helen Hanff. 145. Great Expectations, Little Dorrit and Bleak House -- Charles Dickens. 146. Middlemarch -- George Eliot. 147. The Pillow Book -- Sei Shonagon. 148. The Diary of Lady Murasaki -- Murasaki Shikibu. 149. My Experiments With Truth -- Mohandas Gandhi. 150. Ariel -- Sylvia Plath. 151. Jejuri -- Arun Kolatkar. 152. Missing Person -- Adil Jussawalla. 153. All About H Hatterr -- GV Desani. 154. The Ground Beneath Her Feet -- Salman Rushdie. 155. A Fine Balance -- Rohinton Mistry. 156. Tales from Firozsha Baag -- Rohinton Mistry. 157. Amores Perros -- Alejandro G Iñárritu. 158. Samira Makhmalbaf on Wikipedia and IMDb. 159. Ingmar Bergman on Wikipedia and IMDb. 160. The Silence, Autumn Sonata and Wild Strawberries - Ingmar Bergman. 161. The Mahabharata. 162. Yuganta — Irawati Karve. 163. Kalyug -- Shyam Benegal. 164. The Hungry Tide -- Amitav Ghosh. 165. On Hinduism and The Hindus -- Wendy Doniger. 166. I, Lalla: The Poems of Lal Dĕd — Lal Dĕd (translated by Ranjit Hoskote). 167. The Essential Kabir -- Arvind Krishna Mehrotra. 168. The Absent Traveller -- Arvind Krishna Mehrotra. 169. These My Words: The Penguin Book of Indian Poetry -- Edited by Eunice de Souza and Melanie Silgardo. This episode is sponsored by CTQ Compounds. Check out The Daily Reader and FutureStack. Use the code UNSEEN for Rs 2500 off. Check out Amit's online course, The Art of Clear Writing. And subscribe to The India Uncut Newsletter. It's free! Episode art: ‘He is Reading' by Simahina.
Public policy may seem arcane and complicated, a field only for geeks. But all our lives are shaped by it. Pranay Kotasthane and Raghu S Jaitley join Amit Varma in episode 313 of The Seen and the Unseen to describe their efforts to make policy great again. (For full linked show notes, go to SeenUnseen.in.) Also check out: 1. Missing In Action: Why You Should Care About Public Policy -- Pranay Kotasthane and Raghu S Jaitley. 2. Anticipating the Unintended — Pranay Kotasthane and Raghu Sanjaylal Jaitley's newsletter. 3. Puliyabaazi — Pranay Kotasthane's podcast (with Saurabh Chandra). 4. Raghu Sanjaylal Jaitley's Father's Scooter -- Episode 214 of The Seen and the Unseen. 5. Pranay Kotasthane Talks Public Policy -- Episode 233 of The Seen and the Unseen. 6. Foreign Policy is a Big Deal — Episode 170 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Pranay Kotasthane & Manoj Kewalramani). 7. Older episodes of The Seen and the Unseen w Pranay Kotasthane: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8. 8. The Art and Science of Economic Policy — Episode 154 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Vijay Kelkar & Ajay Shah). 9. In Service of the Republic — Vijay Kelkar & Ajay Shah. 10. Angus Maddison's chart on GDP through the ages. 11. Caste, Capitalism and Chandra Bhan Prasad — Episode 296 of The Seen and the Unseen. 12. What Have We Done With Our Independence? — Episode 186 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Pratap Bhanu Mehta). 13. The Gentle Wisdom of Pratap Bhanu Mehta — Episode 300 of The Seen and the Unseen. 14. Bhaktamal -- Nabha Dass. 15. The Three Languages of Politics — Arnold Kling. 16. The Importance of the 1991 Reforms — Episode 237 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Shruti Rajagopalan and Ajay Shah). 17. The Forgotten Greatness of PV Narasimha Rao — Episode 283 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Vinay Sitapati). 18. The Life and Times of Montek Singh Ahluwalia — Episode 285 of The Seen and the Unseen. 19. The Overton Window. 20. India's Problem is Poverty, Not Inequality — Amit Varma. 21. Where Did Development Economics Go Wrong? -- Shruti Rajagopalan speaks to Lant Pritchett on the Ideas of India podcast. 22. Government's End: Why Washington Stopped Working -- Jonathan Rauch. 23. Public Opinion — Walter Lippmann. 24. Democracy in America — Alexis De Tocqueville. 25. Yeh Jo Public Hai Sab Janti Hai -- Song from Roti. 26. Price Controls Lead to Shortages and Harm the Poor -- Amit Varma. 27. Amit Varma's prescient 2017 tweet on the price caps on stents. 28. Varun Grover Is in the House — Episode 292 of The Seen and the Unseen. 29. Tu Kisi Rail Si — Lyrics by Varun Grover. 30. Gyan Prakash on the Emergency — Episode 103 of The Seen and the Unseen. 31. The Moral Arc: How Science Makes Us Better People -- Michael Shermer. 32. History of European Morals — WEH Lecky. 33. The Expanding Circle: Ethics, Evolution, and Moral Progress — Peter Singer. 34. State Building: Governance and World Order in the 21st Century — Francis Fukuyama. 35. The Origins of Political Order — Francis Fukuyama. 36. Political Order and Political Decay — Francis Fukuyama. 37. The Right to Property -- Episode 26 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Shruti Rajagopalan). 38. The Baptist, the Bootlegger and the Dead Man Walking — Amit Varma. 39. Bootleggers and Baptists-The Education of a Regulatory Economist — Bruce Yandle. 40. Zanjeer (Prakash Mehra) and Gol Maal (Hrishikesh Mukherjee). 41. A People's Constitution— Rohit De. 42. Laws Against Victimless Crimes Should Be Scrapped -- Amit Varma. 43. We All Gamble. Make It Legal -- Devangshu Datta. 44. Yes We Cannabis! -- Devangshu Datta. 45. Prohibition doesn't work. Tax Alcohol Instead -- Devangshu Datta. 46. Legalise Prostitution to Fight Trafficking -- Amit Varma. 47. Sea of Poppies -- Amitav Ghosh. 48. Elite Imitation in Public Policy — Episode 180 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Shruti Rajagopalan and Alex Tabarrok). 49. Rent Control — Ep 14 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Alex Tabarrok). 50. A Theory of Justice — John Rawls. 51. Anarchy, State and Utopia — Robert Nozick. 52. Politics and Money -- Amit Varma's limerick. 53. The Great Redistribution — Amit Varma. 54. Power and Prosperity — Mancur Olson. 55. Swaminathan S Aiyar at Times of India, Amazon and his own website. 56. The Lost Decade — Puja Mehra. 57. India's Lost Decade — Episode 116 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Puja Mehra). 58. Episode of The Seen and the Unseen on GST: 1, 2, 3. 59. DeMon, Morality and the Predatory Indian State — Episode 85 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Shruti Rajagopalan). 60. The Tragedy of Our Farm Bills — Episode 211 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ajay Shah). 61. A Game Theory Problem: Who Will Bell The Congress Cat? — Amit Varma. 62. Kashi Ka Assi — Kashinath Singh. 63. A Beast Called Government (2007) -- Amit Varma. 64. We Are Fighting Two Disasters: Covid-19 and the Indian State -- Amit Varma. 65. Policy Paradox – The Art of Political Decision Making — Deborah Stone. 66. Bara -- UR Ananthamurthy 67. Sookha -- MS Sathyu's film based on Bara, 68. Russia, Ukraine, Foreign Policy -- Episode 268 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Pranay Kotasthane and Nitin Pai). 69. Nuclear Power Can Save the World — Joshua S Goldstein, Staffan A Qvist and Steven Pinker. 70. The Third Pillar -- Raghuram Rajan. 71. Samaaj, Sarkaar, Bazaar : A citizen-first approach -- Rohini Nilekani. 72. The Double ‘Thank-You' Moment — John Stossel. 73. Every Act of Government Is an Act of Violence -- Amit Varma. 74. Frédéric Bastiat's writings at Bastiat.org and Amazon. 75. The Use of Knowledge in Society — Friedrich Hayek. 76. ये लिबरल आख़िर है कौन? — Episode 37 of Puliyabaazi (w Amit Varma, on Hayek). 77. Econ Talk — Russ Roberts's podcast. 78. Conversation and Society — Episode 182 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Russ Roberts). 79. The Economist as Scapegoat -- Russ Roberts. 80. Bollywood's New Capitalist Hero (2007) -- Amit Varma. 81. Mohan Joshi Hazir Ho! -- Saaed Mirza. 82. Scam 1992 -- Hansal Mehta. 83. Bharat Ane Nenu -- Koratal Siva. 84. Fixing Indian Education — Episode 185 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Karthik Muralidharan). 85. Education in India — Episode 77 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Amit Chandra). 86. Our Unlucky Children (2008) — Amit Varma. 87. Fund Schooling, Not Schools (2007) — Amit Varma. 88. Participatory Democracy — Episode 160 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ashwin Mahesh). 89. Cities and Citizens — Episode 198 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ashwin Mahesh). 90. Helping Others in the Fog of Pandemic — Episode 226 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ashwin Mahesh). 91. Population Is Not a Problem, but Our Greatest Strength — Amit Varma. 92. Profit = Philanthropy — Amit Varma. 93. The Solution -- Bertolt Brecht. 94. Abby Philips Fights for Science and Medicine -- Episode 310 of The Seen and the Unseen. 95. Who Broke Our Republic? — Episode 163 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Kapil Komireddi). 96. The Multitudes of Our Maharajahs -- Episode 244 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Manu Pillai). 97. What is Libertarianism? — Episode 117 of The Seen and the Unseen (w David Boaz). 98. Sansar Se Bhage Phirte Ho -- Song from Chitralekha with lyrics by Sahir Ludhianvi. 99. Crimemaster Gogo in the house! Check out Amit's online course, The Art of Clear Writing. And subscribe to The India Uncut Newsletter. It's free! Episode art: ‘Graveyard of Good Intentions' by Simahina.
She's been a novelist, a playwright, a critic, an essayist, a memoirist, a journalist, a writer for cinema and a historian of theatre -- in both English and Marathi. Shanta Gokhale joins Amit Varma in episode 311 of The Seen and the Unseen to talk about her remarkable life and times. (For full linked show notes, go to SeenUnseen.in.) Also check out: 1. Shanta Gokhale on Amazon, Wikipedia and her own website. 2. One Foot on the Ground -- Shanta Gokhale. 3. Living With Father: A Memoir -- Shanta Gokhale. 4. आमची आई : इंदिरा गोपाळ गोखले -- Shanta Gokhale. 5. The Engaged Observer: The Selected Writings of Shanta Gokhale -- Edited by Jerry Pinto. 6. Rita Velinkar (Marathi) (English) -- Shanta Gokhale. 7. Tya Varshi/Crowfall (Marathi) (English) -- Shanta Gokhale. 8. Playwright at the Centre: Marathi Drama from 1843 to the Present -- Shanta Gokhale. 9. Shivaji Park: Dadar 28: History, Places, People -- Shanta Gokhale. 10. Satyadev Dubey: A Fifty-Year Journey Through Theatre -- Edited by Shanta Gokhale. 11. The Scenes We Made: An Oral History of Experimental Theatre in Mumbai -- Edited by Shanta Gokhale. 12. Avinash: The Indestructible -- Shanta Gokhale. 13. Smritichitre: The Memoirs of a Spirited Wife -- Lakshmibai Tilak (translated by Shanta Gokhale). 14. The Loneliness of the Indian Man — Episode 303 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Nikhil Taneja). 15. The Adda at the End of the Universe -- Episode 309 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Vikram Sathaye and Roshan Abbas). 16. Caste, Capitalism and Chandra Bhan Prasad — Episode 296 of The Seen and the Unseen. 17. The Never Never Nest -- Cedric Mount. 18. The Life and Times of Mrinal Pande — Episode 263 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Mrinal Pande). 19. The Female Eunuch -- Germaine Greer. 20. The Second Sex -- Simone de Beauvoir. 21. A Godless Congregation — Amit Varma. 22. Agarkar's Donkeys: A Meditation on God — Amit Varma. 23. The Life and Times of Urvashi Butalia — Episode 287 of The Seen and the Unseen. 24. The Kavita Krishnan Files — Episode 228 of The Seen and the Unseen. 25. Films, Feminism, Paromita — Episode 155 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Paromita Vohra). 26. The Will to Change — bell hooks. 27. The Loneliness of the Indian Man — Episode 303 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Nikhil Taneja). 28. The Three Languages of Politics — Arnold Kling. 29. Memories and Things — Episode 195 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Aanchal Malhotra). 30. History of European Morals — WEH Lecky. 31. The Expanding Circle: Ethics, Evolution, and Moral Progress — Peter Singer. 32. The Nurture Assumption — Judith Rich Harris. 33. Phineas Gage. 34. Don't think too much of yourself. You're an accident — Amit Varma's column on Chris Cornell's death. 35. The Rooted Cosmopolitanism of Sugata Srinivasaraju — Episode 277 of The Seen and the Unseen. 36. Dnyaneshwar, Tukaram, Arun Kolatkar and Dilip Chitre. 37. GN Devy on Amazon and Wikipedia. 38. Navyug Vachanmala and Arun Vachan -- PK Atre's series for elementary school and middle school respectively. 39. The State of Our Farmers — Episode 86 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Gunvant Patil). 40. Varun Grover Is in the House — Episode 292 of The Seen and the Unseen. 41. Hussain Haidry, Hindustani Musalmaan — Episode 275 of The Seen and the Unseen. 42. Storytel. 43. Pu La Deshpande, Raag Darbari and Kashi Ka Assi on Storytel. 44. The Refreshing Audacity of Vinay Singhal — Episode 291 of The Seen and the Unseen. 45. Stage.in. 46. A Doll's House -- Henrik Ibsen. 47. Looking for Ibsen in Maharashtra -- Shanta Gokhale. 48. The Vintage Book Of Indian Writing 1947 - 1997 -- Edited by Salman Rushdie and Elizabeth West. 49. The Picador Book of Modern Indian Literature -- Edited by Amit Chaudhuri. 50. Episodes of The Seen and the Unseen on the creator ecosystem with Roshan Abbas, Varun Duggirala, Neelesh Misra, Snehal Pradhan, Chuck Gopal, Nishant Jain, Deepak Shenoy and Abhijit Bhaduri. 51. 1000 True Fans — Kevin Kelly. 52. 1000 True Fans? Try 100 — Li Jin. 53. Namdeo Dhasal on Amazon and Wikipedia. 54. Alice Munro on Amazon and Wikipedia. 55. Squid Game on Netflix. 56. Yada Kadachit (Part 1) (Part 2) -- Written and directed by Santosh Pawar. 57. Sakharam Binder (Marathi) (English) -- Vijay Tendulkar. 58. A Cricket Tragic Celebrates the Game -- Episode 201 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ramachandra Guha). 59. सप्तरंगी कोरिया एक अनुभव -- Sudha Hujurbajar-Tumbe. 60. Suyash Rai Embraces India's Complexity -- Episode 307 of The Seen and the Unseen. 61. Alice in Wonderland -- Lewis Carroll. 62. Charles Dickens, William Wordsworth, JB Priestley, George Bernard Shaw and William Shakespeare on Amazon. 63. The Lost Daughter -- Elena Ferrante. 64. The Lost Daughter -- The film by Maggie Gyllenhaal. 65. The Shadow Lines -- Amitav Ghosh. 66. Enid Blyton on Amazon. 67. This Life At Play: Memoirs -- Girish Karnad. 68. Sunil Shanbag and Shanta Gokhale in conversation with Girish Karnad. 69. Aranyer Din Ratri -- Satyajit Ray. 70. Messy: How to Be Creative and Resilient in a Tidy-Minded World -- Tim Harford. 71. A Room of One's Own -- Virginia Woolf. 72. A Passage to India -- EM Forster. 73. Kumar Shahani on Wikipedia and IMDb. 74. Middlemarch -- George Eliot. 75. Anna Karenina -- Leo Tolstoy. 76, Far From the Madding Crowd -- Thomas Hardy. 77. Vanity Fair -- William Makepeace Thackeray. 78. Ulysses -- James Joyce. 79. Picnic at Hanging Rock -- Peter Weir. 80. Why Read the Classics? -- Italo Calvino. 81. The Memoirs of Dr Haimabati Sen — Haimabati Sen (translated by Tapan Raychoudhuri). 82. Hercule Poirot on Amazon, Wikipedia and Britannica. 83. The Golden Age of Murder — Martin Edwards. 84. PG Wodehouse on Amazon, Wikipedia and Britannica. 85. A Meditation on Form — Amit Varma. 86. The Creative Process: A Symposium -- Edited by Brewster Ghiselin. 87. Nissim Ezekiel and Satyadev Dubey. 88. Avadhya -- CT Khanolkar. 89. Masaan — Directed by Neeraj Ghaywan and written by Varun Grover. 90. Tanjore Painting and Prabhakar Barwe. 91. Profit = Philanthropy — Amit Varma. 92. Where Have All The Leaders Gone? — Amit Varma. 93. What Have We Done With Our Independence? — Episode 186 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Pratap Bhanu Mehta). 94. The Gentle Wisdom of Pratap Bhanu Mehta — Episode 300 of The Seen and the Unseen. 95. Memoirs -- Habib Tanvir. 96. Sulabha Deshpande on Wikipedia and IMDb. 97. Sunil Shanbag on Wikipedia, IMDb and Instagram. 98. Atul Pethe on Book My Show and Facebook. 99. Shanta Gokhale's cameo in Ardh Satya (at 1:36:10). 100. My Friend Sancho -- Amit Varma. 101. Bend it Like Beckham -- Gurinder Chadha. 102. We Should Celebrate Rising Divorce Rates (2008) — Amit Varma. 103. Indira Sant on Amazon and Wikipedia. (And a translation of Ekti by Vinay Dharwadkar.) 104. The Loneliness of the Indian Woman — Episode 259 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Shrayana Bhattacharya). 105. Desperately Seeking Shah Rukh — Shrayana Bhattacharya. 106. Private Truths, Public Lies — Timur Kuran. 107. Ranjit Hoskote, Arundhati Subramaniam and Jerry Pinto on Amazon. 108. Alt News, The News Minute and Scroll. 109. The Reflections of Samarth Bansal — Episode 299 of The Seen and the Unseen. 110. The Intellectual Foundations of Hindutva — Episode 115 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Aakar Patel). 111. Aakar Patel Is Full of Hope — Episode 270 of The Seen and the Unseen. 112. Narendra Modi takes a Great Leap Backwards — Amit Varma (on Demonetisation). 113. Enabled by technology, young Indians show what it means to be a citizen — Amit Varma. 114. Beware of Quacks. Alternative Medicine is Injurious to Health — Amit Varma. 115. The Life and Times of Teesta Setalvad -- Episode 302 of The Seen and the Unseen. 116. Madame Bovary -- Gustave Flaubert. 117. The Brothers Karamazov -- Fyodor Dostoevsky. 118. The World as India -- Susan Sontag. In addition to the links above, Shanta recommended: Books: Women in Love (DH Lawrence), Metamorphosis (Franz Kafka), Ways of Seeing (John Berger), 84, Charing Cross Road (Helene Hanff), The Old Man and the Sea (Ernest Hemingway), The Tin Drum (Gunter Grass), The Shadow Lines, The Glass Palace, Hungry Tide (all Amitav Ghosh), Solo (Rana Dasgupta), The Unbearable Lightness of Being (Milan Kundera), Respected Sir (Naguib Mahfouz), One Hundred Years of Solitude (Gabriel Garcia Marquez), Midnight's Children (Salman Rushdie), The Sense of an Ending, Flaubert's Parrot, The Noise of Time, Levels of Life (all Julian Barnes). Hindustani Classical Vocal: Bade Ghulam Ali Khan, Ustad Amir Khan, Bhimsen Joshi, Padma Talwalkar, Dinkar Kaikini, Venkatesh Kumar, Ulhas Kashalkar, Uday Bhawalkar (dhrupad), Mukul Shivputra. Carnatic Vocal: MS Subbulakshmi, DK Pattamal, TM Krishna, Sanjay Subrahmanyan. Instrumental: TR Mahalingam (flautist), Lalgudi Jayaraman (violin). Others: Geet Varsha (Kumar Gandharva), Aaj Jaane Ki Zid Na Karo (Farida Khanum), Dnyaneshwari (Lata Mangeshkar). This episode is sponsored by CTQ Compounds. Check out The Daily Reader and FutureStack. Use the code UNSEEN for Rs 2500 off. Check out Amit's online course, The Art of Clear Writing. And subscribe to The India Uncut Newsletter. It's free! Episode art: ‘Reading the World' by Simahina.
Indian society, the Indian state and the Indian economy are all complex beasts that defy simple narratives. Suyash Rai joins Amit Varma in episode 307 of The Seen and the Unseen to describe how he has tried to make sense of it all -- and how he tries to make a difference. (For full linked show notes, go to SeenUnseen.in.) Also check out: 1. Suyash Rai at Carnegie India, Twitter and The Print. 2. Ideas and Institutions -- The Carnegie India newsletter co-written by Suyash Rai. 3. Interpreting India -- The Carnegie India podcast sometimes hosted by Suyash Rai. 4. Carnegie India's YouTube Channel. 5. Demonetisation -- Episode 2 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Suyash Rai). 6. Religion and Ideology in Indian Society — Episode 124 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Suyash Rai). 7. Suyash Rai on GDP growth: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. 8. Suyash Rai on public finance: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. 9. Suyash Rai on the financial system: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7. 10. Suyash Rai on changes in state-capital relations in recent years: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. 11. Suyash Rai on the judiciary: 1, 2. 12. Suyash Rai on utopian laws that do not work in practice: 1, 2, 3. 13. Suyash Rai on Demonetisation: 1, 2, 3, 4. 14. Paper Menagerie — Ken Liu. 15. Natasha Badhwar Lives the Examined Life -- Episode 301 of The Seen and the Unseen. 16. Conquest and Community: The Afterlife of Warrior Saint Ghazi Miyan -- Shahid Amin. 17. Understanding Gandhi. Part 1: Mohandas — Episode 104 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ram Guha). 18. Understanding Gandhi. Part 2: Mahatma — Episode 105 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ram Guha). 19. The Undiscovered Self: The Dilemma of the Individual in Modern Society -- CG Jung. 20. A Memoir of Mary Ann -- By Dominican Nuns (introduction by Flannery O'Connor). 21. Nathaniel Hawthorne on Amazon and Wikipedia. 22. Flannery O'Connor and “A Memoir of Mary Ann” -- Daniel J Sundahl. 23. GK Chesterton on Amazon and Wikipedia. 24. Alasdair MacIntyre on Amazon, Wikipedia and Britannica. 25. The Moral Animal -- Robert Wright. 26. Gimpel the Fool -- Isaac Bashevis Singer (translated by Saul Bellow). 27. George Orwell on Amazon and Wikipedia. 28. Frédéric Bastiat on Amazon and Wikipedia. 29. Reflections on Gandhi -- George Orwell. 30. Interview of Harshal Patel in Breakfast With Champions. 31. The Double ‘Thank-You' Moment — John Stossel. 32. The Facts Do Not Matter — Amit Varma. 33. The Hippocratic Oath. 34. Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart -- Gerd Gigerenzer, Peter M Todd and the ABC Research Group on 'fast and frugal heuristics'). 35. The Right to Property -- Episode 26 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Shruti Rajagopalan). 36. The World of Premchand: Selected Short Stories — Munshi Premchand (translated and with an introduction by David Rubin). 37. The Merry Adventures of Robin Hood -- Howard Pyle. 38. Ivanhoe -- Walter Scott. 39. The Swiss Family Robinson -- Johann David Wyss. 40. Treasure Island -- Robert Louis Stevenson. 41. One Hundred Years of Solitude — Gabriel Garcia Marquez. 42. Saul Bellow on Amazon and Wikipedia. 43. Dangling Man -- Saul Bellow. 44. Salman Rushdie, Philip Roth, Isaac Bashevis Singer and Bernard Malamud on Amazon. 45. Aristotle on Amazon, Britannica and Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. 46. Plato on Amazon, Britannica and Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. 47. Gorgias -- Plato. 48. The Dialogues of Plato. 49. Ramayana, Mahabharata and Amar Chitra Katha. 50. Nausea -- Jean-Paul Sartre. 51. The Gita Press and Hindu Nationalism — Episode 139 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Akshaya Mukul). 52. Political Ideology in India — Episode 131 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Rahul Verma). 53. Against Sainte-Beuve and Other Essays -- Marcel Proust. 54. What Have We Done With Our Independence? — Episode 186 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Pratap Bhanu Mehta). 55. The Gentle Wisdom of Pratap Bhanu Mehta — Episode 300 of The Seen and the Unseen. 56. The Aristocratic Liberalism of Alexis de Tocqueville -- Suyash Rai. 57. Narendra Modi takes a Great Leap Backwards — Amit Varma. 58. Ronald Dworkin on Amazon and Wikipedia. 59. Immanuel Kant on Amazon, Britannica and Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. 60. Beware of the Useful Idiots — Amit Varma. 61. Don't Choose Tribalism Over Principles -- Amit Varma. 62. Episodes of The Seen and the Unseen with Ajay Shah: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8. 63. Bureaucracy: What Government Agencies Do And Why They Do It -- James Q Wilson. 64. The Moral Sense -- James Q Wilson. 65. Karthik Muralidharan Examines the Indian State -- Episode 290 of The Seen and the Unseen. 66. State Building: Governance and World Order in the 21st Century — Francis Fukuyama. 67. The Origins of Political Order — Francis Fukuyama. 68. Political Order and Political Decay — Francis Fukuyama. 69. Going from strong as in scary to strong as in capable -- Suyash Rai and Ajay Shah. 70. The Life and Times of Montek Singh Ahluwalia -- Episode 285 of The Seen and the Unseen. 71. Anna Karenina -- Leo Tolstoy. 72. Utilitarianism on Wikipedia, Britannica and Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. 73. Practical Ethics -- Peter Singer. 74. Reasons and Persons -- Derek Parfit. 75. The Repugnant Conclusion. 76. Governing the Commons -- Elinor Ostrom. 77. A Pragmatic Approach to Data Protection -- Suyash Rai. 78. Technology and the Lifeworld -- Don Ihde. 79. Postphenomenology -- Don Ihde. 80. Kashi Ka Assi — Kashinath Singh. 81. Looking at Lucas's Question After Seventy-five Years of India's Independence -- Suyash Rai. 82. India's Lost Decade — Episode 116 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Puja Mehra). 83. The Lost Decade — Puja Mehra. 84. The Importance of the 1991 Reforms — Episode 237 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Shruti Rajagopalan and Ajay Shah). 85. The Art and Science of Economic Policy — Episode 154 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Vijay Kelkar & Ajay Shah). 86. In Service of the Republic — Vijay Kelkar & Ajay Shah. 87. Douglass North and Albert O Hirschman. 88. The Intellectual Odyssey of Albert Hirschman -- Suyash Rai. 89. India's Problem is Poverty, Not Inequality — Amit Varma. 90. Democracy in America -- Alexis De Tocqueville. 91. Tocqueville and the Nature of Democracy -- Pierre Manent. 92. The Populist Century -- Pierre Rosanvallon. 93. The Theory of Populism According to Pierre Rosanvallon -- Suyash Rai. 94. After Virtue -- Alasdair MacIntyre. 95. Philosophy of Technology -- Don Ihde. 96. Technology and the Virtues -- Shannon Vallor. 97. Nihilism and Technology -- Nolen Gertz. 98. Lant Pritchett on Amazon, Google Scholar and his own website. 99. Harnessing Complexity -- Robert Axelrod and Michael D Cohen. 100. Mahabharata, Odyssey, Divine Comedy and Rashmirathi. 101. Kishore Kumar, Mohammed Rafi and Lata Mangeshkar on Spotify. 102. Andrei Rublev -- Andrei Tarkovsky. 103. Andrei Tarkovsky, Luis Buñuel, Akira Kurosawa and Satyajit Ray. 104. Mission Impossible, Bad News Bears and Anand. Check out Amit's online course, The Art of Clear Writing. And subscribe to The India Uncut Newsletter. It's free! Episode art: ‘The Past and the Future' by Simahina.
Society cannot be designed in a top-down way. Central planning was a historic blunder that harmed India -- even though it was conceived by great men with good intentions. Nikhil Menon joins Amit Varma in episode 306 of The Seen and the Unseen to talk about the flawed genius PC Mahalanobis, the planning commission, and his own life as a scholar. (For full linked show notes, go to SeenUnseen.in.) Also check out: 1. Nikhil Menon on Amazon and University of Notre Dame. 2. Planning Democracy: How A Professor, An Institute, And An Idea Shaped India -- Nikhil Menon. 3. The Evolution of Everything -- Episode 96 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Matt Ridley). 4. The Use of Knowledge in Society — Friedrich Hayek. 5. Sherlock Holmes, Ramayana and Mahabharata. 6. The Rooted Cosmopolitanism of Sugata Srinivasaraju — Episode 277 of The Seen and the Unseen. 7. Religion and Ideology in Indian Society — Episode 124 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Suyash Rai). 8. Political Ideology in India — Episode 131 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Rahul Verma). 9. The Decline of the Congress -- Episode 248 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Rahul Verma). 10. The Intellectual Foundations of Hindutva — Episode 115 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Aakar Patel). 11. Aakar Patel Is Full of Hope — Episode 270 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Aakar Patel). 12. The Gita Press and Hindu Nationalism — Episode 139 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Akshaya Mukul). 13. The Discovery of India -- Jawaharlal Nehru. 14. The Collected Writings and Speeches of Dr Babasaheb Ambedkar. 15. Caste, Capitalism and Chandra Bhan Prasad -- Episode 296 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Chandra Bhan Prasad). 16. John Locke on Wikipedia, Britannica and Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. 17. John Dewey on Wikipedia, Britannica and Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. 18. The Ideas of Our Constitution — Episode 164 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Madhav Khosla). 19. Friedrich Hayek on Wikipedia, Britannica, Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy and Econlib. 20. The Fatal Conceit: The Errors of Socialism -- Friedrich Hayek.. 21. ये लिबरल आख़िर है कौन? — Episode 37 of Puliyabaazi (w Amit Varma, on Hayek). 22. The Importance of the 1991 Reforms — Episode 237 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Shruti Rajagopalan and Ajay Shah). 23. India's Lost Decade — Episode 116 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Puja Mehra). 24. The Forgotten Greatness of PV Narasimha Rao — Episode 283 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Vinay Sitapati). 25. The Life and Times of Montek Singh Ahluwalia -- Episode 285 of The Seen and the Unseen. 26. The Gentle Wisdom of Pratap Bhanu Mehta -- Episode 300 of The Seen and the Unseen. 27. On Exactitude in Science (Wikipedia) — Jorge Luis Borges. 28. What is Libertarianism? — Episode 117 of The Seen and the Unseen (w David Boaz). 29. India's Greatest Civil Servant — Episode 167 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Narayani Basu, on VP Menon). 30. Angus Deaton, John von Neumann, Albert Einstein and Howard Aiken. 31. The Life and Times of Vir Sanghvi — Episode 236 of The Seen and the Unseen. 32. Les Misérables -- Victor Hugo. 33. Hardy Boys on Amazon. 34. One Hundred Years of Solitude -- Gabriel Garcia Marquez. 35. Love in the Time of Cholera -- Gabriel Garcia Marquez. 36. Midnight's Children -- Salman Rushdie. 37. Fixing Indian Education — Episode 185 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Karthik Muralidharan). 38. Shahid Amin and Sunil Kumar. 39. 300 Ramayanas -- AK Ramanujan. 40. Nehru's Debates — Episode 262 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Tripurdaman Singh and Adeel Hussain.) 41. Whatever happened To Ehsan Jafri on February 28, 2002? — Harsh Mander. 42. Who Broke Our Republic? — Episode 163 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Kapil Komireddi). 43. John McPhee on Amazon. 44. Mumbai Fables -- Gyan Prakash. 45. Emergency Chronicles — Gyan Prakash. 46. Gyan Prakash on the Emergency — Episode 103 of The Seen and the Unseen. 47. Delhi Reborn: Partition and Nation Building in India's Capital -- Rotem Geva. 48. A People's Constitution — Rohit De. 49. Jugalbandi: The BJP Before Modi — Vinay Sitapati. 50. The BJP Before Modi — Episode 202 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Vinay Sitapati). 51. India After Gandhi: The History of the World's Largest Democracy -- Ramachandra Guha. 52. Roam Research. 53. Zettelkasten on Wikipedia. 54. Linda Colley on Amazon and Princeton. 55. Gandhi as Mahatma -- Shahid Amin. 56. Tanika Sarkar, Neeladri Bhattacharya and Janaki Nair. 57. The Great Man Theory of History. 58. Pramit Bhattacharya Believes in Just One Ism — Episode 256 of The Seen and the Unseen. 59. Demystifying GDP — Episode 130 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Rajeswari Sengupta). 60. Milton Friedman on Amazon, Wikipedia, Britannica and Econlib. 61. The Man of System — Adam Smith (excerpted from The Theory of Moral Sentiments). 62. The Idea of India — Sunil Khilnani. 63. The Rocking-Horse Winner -- DH Lawrence. 64. Taylor Sherman and Niraja Gopal Jayal. 65. Kamyab Hum Karke Rahenge -- Lata Mangeshkar and Mohammed Rafi on central planning. 66. Naya Daur -- BR Chopra. 67. Chhodo Kal Ki Baatein -- Song from Hum Hindustani. 68. Char Dil Char Raahein -- KA Abbas. 69. Jhootha Sach (Hindi) (English) -- Yashpal. 70. Marxvaad Aur Ram Rajya — Karpatri Maharaj. 71. Narendra Modi takes a Great Leap Backwards — Amit Varma. 72. The Importance of Data Journalism — Episode 196 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Rukmini S). 73. Rukmini Sees India's Multitudes — Episode 261 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Rukmini S). 74. Circe -- Madeline Miller. 75. The Song of Achilles -- Madeline Miller. 76. The Thursday Murder Club -- Richard Osman. 77. Only Murders in the Building. Check out Amit's online course, The Art of Clear Writing. And subscribe to The India Uncut Newsletter. It's free! Episode art: ‘Central Planning' by Simahina.
Her acclaimed personal essays explore motherhood, marriage and this modern world -- and hold up a mirror to all of us. Natasha Badhwar joins Amit Varma in episode 301 to speak about her life and her writing. (For full linked show notes, go to SeenUnseen.in.) Also check out: 1. Natasha Badhwar on Twitter, Instagram, Amazon, LinkedIn, The Tribune and Mint Lounge. 2. My Daughters' Mum -- Natasha Badhwar. 3. Immortal for a Moment -- Natasha Badhwar. 4. Natasha Badhwar's newsletter on Substack. 5. Natasha Badhwar's old blog on Blogspot. 6. Natasha Badhwar's Memoir Writing Course. 7. Parenthood -- Episode 43 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Natasha Badhwar). 8. Reconciliation: Karwan e Mohabbat's Journey of Solidarity through a Wounded India -- Edited by Harsh Mander, John Dayal and Natasha Badhwar. 9. Karwan e Mohabbat. 10. Womaning in India With Mahima Vashisht -- Episode 293 of The Seen and the Unseen. 11. The Gentle Wisdom of Pratap Bhanu Mehta -- Episode 300 of The Seen and the Unseen. 12. The Reflections of Samarth Bansal -- Episode 299 of The Seen and the Unseen. 13. How Social Media Threatens Society -- Jonathan Haidt in conversation with Vasant Dhar in episode 8 of Brave New World. 14. Why my daughters don't go to school anymore -- Natasha Badhwar interviewed by Manisha Natarajan. (Full video.) 15. The most important lesson learnt as an #unschooling parent -- Natasha Badhwar. 16. School forced me to put parts of myself inside a box -- Sahar Beg (Natasha's daughter). 17. Meet the unschooling girls -- Homeschooling India Community. 18. The Joys of Walking Out -- Natasha Badhwar and Sahar Beg. 19. How Children Fail -- John Holt. 20. Unsatisfied -- The Replacements. 21. To Fail Without Feeling Like A Failure -- Natasha Badhwar. 22. The Nurture Assumption — Judith Rich Harris. 23. Amitava Kumar Finds the Breath of Life -- Episode 265 of The Seen and the Unseen. 24. The Blue Book: A Writer's Journal — Amitava Kumar. 25. Sholay — Ramesh Sippy. 26. Aadha Gaon — Rahi Masoom Raza. 27. The Gita Press and Hindu Nationalism — Episode 139 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Akshaya Mukul). 28. Gita Press and the Making of Hindu India — Akshaya Mukul. 29. The Incredible Curiosities of Mukulika Banerjee — Episode 276 of The Seen and the Unseen. 30. Whatever happened To Ehsan Jafri on February 28, 2002? -- Harsh Mander. 31. The real difference between my husband and me -- Natasha Badhwar. 32. Self-Portrait -- AK Ramanujan. 33. The Girl From Kashmir -- Episode 295 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Farah Bashir). 34. The Barkha Dutt Files -- Episode 243 of The Seen and the Unseen. 35. Roger Ebert and me: How tragedy and Twitter bonded us across continents -- Natasha Badhwar. 36. In Conversation with Roger Ebert -- Natasha Badhwar. 37. The desire to help, and the desire not to be helped — Roger Ebert's review of Goodbye Solo. 38. Roger Ebert's essay on Dekalog. 39. A welcome note for new husbands and wives -- Natasha Badhwar. 40. Five things to learn from the man you love -- Natasha Badhwar. 41. Deep Work — Cal Newport. 42. Fatherhood is a funny thing -- Natasha Badhwar. 43. El Amor de Mi Vida -- Warren Zevon. 44. Richard Wright, Langston Hughes, John Steinbeck and JD Salinger on Amazon. 45. Cyrano De Bergerac -- Edmond Rostand. 46. Sweet Thursday -- John Steinbeck. 47. The Catcher in the Rye -- JD Salinger. 48. To Kill a Mockingbird -- Harper Lee. 49. The Colour Purple -- Alice Walker. 50. A Meditation on Form — Amit Varma. 51. Imposter Syndrome. 52. What we say and what we mean, the fine art of small talk -- Natasha Badhwar. 53. Kabhi Hum Khoobsurat -- Nayyara Noor. 54. Pride and Prejudice -- Jane Austen. 55. Little Women -- Louisa May Alcott. 56. Hayao Miyazaki on IMDb, Wikipedia and Britannica. 57. Ponyo -- Hayao Miyazaki. 58. Natasha's favourite shows: Bad Buddy, Avatar: The Last Airbender, The Legend of Korra, The Dragon Prince and The Good Place. 59. Masaan — Neeraj Ghaywan. 60. Mirch Masala -- Ketan Mehta. Check out Amit's online course, The Art of Clear Writing. And subscribe to The India Uncut Newsletter. It's free! Episode art: ‘The Examined Life' by Simahina.
Our selves are nebulous, the world is complex and the times they are a-changin'. Pratap Bhanu Mehta joins Amit Varma in episode 300 of The Seen and the Unseen for a freewheeling chat about how to make sense of all of this. (For full linked show notes, go to SeenUnseen.in.) Also check out: 1. The Hunter Becomes the Hunted -- Episode 200 of The Seen and the Unseen, where Amit Varma answers questions from his guests. 2. Pratap Bhanu Mehta on Twitter, Amazon and the Indian Express. 3. What Have We Done With Our Independence? -- Episode 186 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Pratap Bhanu Mehta). 4. Self-Esteem (and a Puddle) — Amit Varma's post with Douglas Adams's puddle quote. 5. The End of History? — Francis Fukuyama's essay. 6. The End of History and the Last Man — Francis Fukuyama's book. 7. Francis Fukuyama on Amazon. 8. Ideas of India: The Theory of Moral Sentiments -- Pratap Bhanu Mehta discusses Adam Smith with Shruti Rajagopalan. 9. Conversation and Society -- Russ Roberts discusses Adam Smith with Amit Varma in episode 182 of The Seen and the Unseen. 10. Human — Michael S Gazzaniga. 11. The Interpreter — Amit Varma. 12. Free Will on Wikipedia, Britannica and Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. 13. Free Will — Sam Harris. 14. Immanuel Kant on Amazon, Wikipedia, Britannica and Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. 15. The Median Voter Theorem. 16. 'Thinking and Reflecting' and 'The Thinking of Thoughts': Gilbert Ryle's essays on 'thick description' and Winks vs Twitches, also found in Collected Essays. 17. Thick Description: Towards an Interpretive Theory of Culture -- Clifford Geertz. 18. Fighting Fake News -- Episode 133 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Pratik Sinha). 19. The Greater India Experiment: Hindutva and the Northeast -- Arkotong Longkumer. 20. Memories and Things -- Episode 195 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Aanchal Malhotra). 21. Remnants of a Separation — Aanchal Malhotra. 22. Don't think too much of yourself. You're an accident -- Amit Varma's column on Chris Cornell's death. 23. Alice Evans Studies the Great Gender Divergence -- Episode 297 of The Seen and the Unseen. 24. Scientism. 25. Ludwig Wittgenstein on Amazon, Wikipedia, Britannica and Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. 26. Wanting — Luke Burgis. 27. René Girard on Amazon and Wikipedia. 28. Jean-Jacques Rousseau on Amazon, Wikipedia, Britannica and Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. 29. A Meditation on Form -- Amit Varma. 30. Agarkar's Donkeys: A Meditation on God -- Amit Varma. 31. Faust, as portrayed by Christopher Marlowe and Johann Wolfgang von Goethe. 32. The Measure of a Man -- Episode 9, Season 2, Star Trek: The Next Generation (Wikipedia entry). 33. Ex Machina -- Alex Garland. 34. Reality+: Virtual Worlds and the Problems of Philosophy -- David Chalmers. 35. Yoga Vasistha. 36. On a Certain Blindness in Human Beings -- William James. 37. Capitalism and Freedom -- Milton Friedman. 38. The Experience Machine -- Robert Nozick. (Wikipedia entry.) 39. Utilitarianism: For and Against -- JJC Smart and Bernard Williams. 40. Reasons and Persons -- Derek Parfit. 41. Episode of The Seen and the Unseen with Ajay Shah: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8. 42. Ethics and the Limits of Philosophy -- Bernard Williams. 43. Bernard Williams on Amazon, Wikipedia, Britannica and Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. 44. India's Greatest Civil Servant -- Episode 167 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Narayani Basu, on VP Menon). 45. A Life in Indian Politics -- Episode 149 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Jayaprakash Narayan). 46. Friedrich Hayek on Amazon, Econlib, Wikipedia, Britannica and Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. 47. The Dark Side of Democracy -- Michael Mann. 48. Jayaprakash Narayan on proportional representation. 49. Pakistan or the Partition of India — BR Ambedkar. 50. Don't Insult Pasta (2007) — Amit Varma. 51. Manish Sisodia invokes ‘Rajput' caste amidst CBI probe -- Janta Ka Reporter. 52. Caste, Capitalism and Chandra Bhan Prasad -- Episode 296 of The Seen and the Unseen. 53. Defying the Odds: The Rise of Dalit Entrepreneurs — Devesh Kapur, D Shyam Babu and Chandra Bhan Prasad. 54. Beware of Half Victories -- Pratap Bhanu Mehta. 55. Hussain Haidry, Hindustani Musalmaan -- Episode 275 of The Seen and the Unseen. 56. Carl Schmitt on Amazon, Wikipedia, Britannica and Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. 57. Raghu Sanjaylal Jaitley's Father's Scooter -- Episode 214 of The Seen and the Unseen. 58. Justin Amash on why he left the Republican Party. 59. Kashi Ka Assi — Kashinath Singh. 60. Rational Ignorance. 61. The Economics of Voting — Amit Varma on Rational Ignorance. 62. Karthik Muralidharan Examines the Indian State -- Episode 290 of The Seen and the Unseen. 63. Lessons from an Ankhon Dekhi Prime Minister -- Amit Varma on the importance of reading. 64. John Aubrey's biography of Thomas Hobbes. 65. Ludwig van Beethoven, Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart, George Frideric Handel and Felix Mendelssohn on Spotify. 66. Digital Concert Hall -- Berliner Philharmoniker. 67. Berliner Philharmoniker on YouTube, Twitter and their own website. 68. Nikhil Banerjee on Spotify, YouTube and Wikipedia. 69. Wolf Hall, Bring Up the Bodies and The Mirror and the Light -- The Wolf Hall Trilogy by Hilary Mantel. 70. The World of Premchand: Selected Short Stories — Munshi Premchand (translated and with an introduction by David Rubin). 71. Premchand's Kazaki And Other Marvellous Tales — Munshi Premchand (translated and with an introduction by Sara Rai). 72. Sara Rai Inhales Literature -- Episode 255 of The Seen and the Unseen. 73. Yeh Premchand Hai -- Apoorvanand. This episode is sponsored by CTQ Compounds. Check out The Daily Reader and FutureStack. Use the code UNSEEN for Rs 2500 off. Check out Amit's online course, The Art of Clear Writing. And subscribe to The India Uncut Newsletter. It's free! Episode art: ‘Radiant Knowledge' by Simahina.
Many Europeans see the war in Ukraine as an attack on the ‘rules-based order'. But to many people in other parts of the world, there is no consensus on a set of rules to govern global affairs – and no sense of order. In this mini-series, Mark Leonard will go on an intellectual tour of the world, talking to key thinkers about how order is being defined by different powers. He explores how the clash between these different notions plays into the big shocks facing the world – from climate change and future pandemics to geopolitical struggles and technological disasters – and what this means for national and global politics. --- In this third episode, Leonard is joined by Pratap Bhanu Mehta – Laurance S Rockefeller visiting professor at Princeton University and former president of the Centre for Policy Research, a New Delhi-based think tank – to discuss the Indian perspective on order. What is the link between civilisational power and Hindu nationalism? Why is the concept of development so important for a just international order? And finally, how does the deep memory of independence and partition shape contemporary Indian politics? Bookshelf • “The Burden of Democracy” by Pratap Bhanu Mehta • “Public Institutions in India: Performance and Design” by Devesh Kapur & Pratap Bhanu Mehta • “Non-Alignment 2.0: A Foreign and Strategic Policy for India in the 21st Century” by Sunil Khilnani et al. • PM Modi's speech at foundation stone laying ceremony of development projects in Chennai • “The Mirror & The Light” by Hilary Mantel
The evil of caste will be solved not by deliverance from up top but empowerment from down below. Dalit scholar and writer Chandra Bhan Prasad joins Amit Varma in episode 296 of The Seen and the Unseen to explain why the cure for caste lies in capitalism -- and why his two great heroes are Babasaheb Ambedkar and Adam Smith. (For full linked show notes, go to SeenUnseen.in.) Also check out: 1. Chandra Bhan Prasad on Twitter, Amazon, Wikipedia. Mercatus, Times of India and Google Scholar. 2. Defying the Odds: The Rise of Dalit Entrepreneurs -- Devesh Kapur, D Shyam Babu and Chandra Bhan Prasad. 3. What is Ambedkarism? -- Chandra Bhan Prasad. 4. Dalit Phobia: Why Do They Hate Us -- Chandra Bhan Prasad. 5. When Adam Smith entered an Ambedkar village -- Chandra Bhan Prasad. 6. In defence of suit, boot -- Chandra Bhan Prasad. 7. How Piketty got it wrong -- Chandra Bhan Prasad. 8. Who was the real Ambedkar? -- Chandra Bhan Prasad. 9. On Ambedkarism, Caste and Dalit Capitalism -- Chandra Bhan Prasad in conversation with Shruti Rajagopalan in the Ideas of India podcast. 10. 'Indian languages carry the legacy of caste' -- Chandra Bhan Prasad interviewed by Sheela Bhatt. 11. Rethinking Inequality: Dalits in Uttar Pradesh in the Market Reform Era -- Devesh Kapur, Chandra Bhan Prasad, Lant Pritchett and D Shyam Babu. 12. The Collected Writings and Speeches of Dr Babasaheb Ambedkar. 13. The Dalit Emancipation Manifesto of 1951 -- Babasaheb Ambedkar. 14. Select episodes of The Seen and the Unseen that discussed caste with TM Krishna, Shruti Rajagopalan and Manu Pillai. 15. Select episodes of The Seen and the Unseen that discussed the 1991 reforms with Shruti Rajagopalan+Ajay Shah, Vinay Sitapati and Montek Singh Ahluwalia. 16. Select episodes of The Seen and the Unseen that discussed gender with Shrayana Bhattacharya, Paromita Vohra, Kavita Krishnan, Urvashi Butalia, Namita Bhandare, Manjima Bhattacharjya and Mahima Vashisht. 17. Ramchandra Keh Gaye Siya Se -- Song from Gopi. 18. The Laws of Manu (Manu Smriti) -- The Penguin edition & the Buhler translation. 19. India's Problem is Poverty, Not Inequality — Amit Varma. 20. What Have We Done With Our Independence? — Episode 186 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Pratap Bhanu Mehta). 21. Devesh Kapur at University of Pennsylvania. 22. Crusader Sees Wealth as Cure for Caste Bias -- The New York Times profile of Chandra Bhan Prasad by Somini Sengupta. 23. In an Indian Village, Signs of the Loosening Grip of Caste -- The Washington Post piece on Chandra Bhan Prasad by Emily Wax. 24. Small Holdings in India and Their Remedies -- Babasaheb Ambedkar. 25. Aims and Objects of the Republican Party of India -- Babasaheb Ambedkar. 26. Ambedkar's memorandum to the British (in Volume 10 of his collected works). This episode is sponsored by CTQ Compounds. Check out The Daily Reader and FutureStack. Use the code UNSEEN for Rs 2500 off. Check out Amit's online course, The Art of Clear Writing. And subscribe to The India Uncut Newsletter. It's free! Episode art by Simahina, in a homage to Gond painting.
On the 75th anniversary of India's independence, we bring you a special episode in which we ask three people — a political scientist, an economist, and a filmmaker — about what they think is worth celebrating on this occasion. Host Shashank Bhargava is joined by Pratap Bhanu Mehta, Jayati Ghosh, and Saeed Akhtar Mirza as they answer this question, and share their anxieties about contemporary India, and what gives them hope.About the guests: Pratap Bhanu Mehta is one of India's leading political scientists, Contributing Editor at the Indian Express, and the former vice-chancellor of Ashoka University. Jayati Ghosh is a leading development economist, and teaches at the University of Massachusetts. Saeed Akhtar Mirza is an author, filmmaker, and one of the pioneers of the 'New Wave' progressive cinema in India.
In 1947, few people gave us 75 years. Bloody hell, here we are! And it is up to us now to make this country the best version of itself. Karthik Muralidharan joins Amit Varma in episode 290 of The Seen and the Unseen to discuss one of our problem areas: the Indian state. Can we fix it? Yes we can! (For full linked show notes, go to SeenUnseen.in.) Also check out: 1. Karthik Muralidharan on Twitter, LinkedIn, Google Scholar and UCSD. 2. Centre for Effective Governance of Indian States (CEGIS) 3. Fixing Indian Education -- Episode 185 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Karthik Muralidharan). 4. Understanding Indian Healthcare -- Episode 225 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Karthik Muralidharan). 5. General equilibrium effects of (improving) public employment programs: experimental evidence from India -- The paper on NREGA by Karthik Muralidharan, Paul Niehaus and Sandip Sukhtankar. 6. Kashmir and Article 370 -- Episode 134 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Srinath Raghavan). 7. The Citizenship Battles -- Episode 152 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Srinath Raghavan). 8. The Loneliness of the Indian Woman — Episode 259 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Shrayana Bhattacharya). 9. In Service of the Republic — Vijay Kelkar and Ajay Shah. 10. The Art and Science of Economic Policy — Episode 154 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Vijay Kelkar and Ajay Shah). 11. Pramit Bhattacharya Believes in Just One Ism -- Episode 256 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Pramit Bhattacharya). 12. The Paradox of Narendra Modi — Episode 102 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Shashi Tharoor). 13. The Life and Times of Montek Singh Ahluwalia -- Episode 285 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Montek Singh Ahluwalia). 14. Episodes of The Seen and the Unseen on the creator ecosystem with Roshan Abbas, Varun Duggirala, Neelesh Misra, Snehal Pradhan, Chuck Gopal, Nishant Jain, Deepak Shenoy and Abhijit Bhaduri. 15. The Case Against Sugar — Gary Taubes. 16. The Big Fat Surprise — Nina Teicholz. 17. The Forgotten Greatness of PV Narasimha Rao -- Episode 283 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Vinay Sitapati). 18. The Macroeconomist as Scientist and Engineer -- N Gregory Mankiw. 19. The Gated Republic -- Shankkar Aiyar. 20. Despite the State — M Rajshekhar. 21. The Power Broker— Robert Caro. 22. The Death and Life of Great American Cities — Jane Jacobs. 23. India's Security State -- Episode 242 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Josy Joseph). 24. We Are Fighting Two Disasters: Covid-19 and the Indian State -- Amit Varma. 25. India's Lost Decade — Episode 116 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Puja Mehra). 26. The Importance of the 1991 Reforms -- Episode 237 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Shruti Rajagopalan and Ajay Shah). 27. State Building: Governance and World Order in the 21st Century — Francis Fukuyama. 28. The Origins of Political Order — Francis Fukuyama. 29. Political Order and Political Decay — Francis Fukuyama. 30. Computer Nahi Monitor -- Episode 5 of season 1 of Panchayat. 31. Naushad Forbes Wants to Fix India -- Episode 282 of The Seen and the Unseen. 32. Courts Redux: Micro-Evidence from India -- Manaswini Rao. 33. The Checklist Manifesto -- Atul Gawande. 34. Annie Hall -- Woody Allen. 35. The Politics Limerick -- Amit Varma. 36. The Decline of the Congress -- Episode 248 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Rahul Verma). 37. The Burden of Democracy -- Pratap Bhanu Mehta. 38. A Theory of Clientelistic Politics versus Programmatic Politics -- Pranab Bardhan and Dilip Mookherjee. 39. Power and Prosperity — Mancur Olson. 40. The Business of Winning Elections -- Episode 247 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Shivam Shankar Singh). 41. Premature load bearing: Evidence, Analysis, Action -- Matt Andrews, Lant Pritchett and Michael Woolcock. 42. A Meditation on Form — Amit Varma. 43. Religion and Ideology in Indian Society -- Episode 124 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Suyash Rai). 44. The Tragedy of Our Farm Bills -- Episode 211 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ajay Shah). 45. India After Gandhi: The History of the World's Largest Democracy -- Ramachandra Guha. 46. Participatory Democracy -- Episode 160 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ashwin Mahesh). 47. Cities and Citizens -- Episode 198 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ashwin Mahesh). 48. Helping Others in the Fog of Pandemic -- Episode 226 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ashwin Mahesh). 49. Aakar Patel Is Full of Hope -- Episode 270 of The Seen and the Unseen. 50. The Tamilian gentleman who took on the world -- Amit Varma on Viswanathan Anand. 51. Running to Stand Still -- U2. 52. Population Is Not a Problem, but Our Greatest Strength -- Amit Varma. 53. India's Founding Moment — Madhav Khosla. 54. The Ideas of Our Constitution -- Episode 164 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Madhav Khosla). 55. The Life and Times of Urvashi Butalia -- Episode 287 of The Seen and the Unseen. 56. Pitfalls of Participatory Programs -- Abhijit Banerjee, Rukmini Banerji, Esther Duflo, Rachel Glennerster and Stuti Khemani. 57. Our Parliament and Our Democracy -- Episode 253 of The Seen and the Unseen (w MR Madhavan). 58. Elite Imitation in Public Policy -- Episode 180 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Shruti Rajagopalan and Alex Tabarrok). 59. Urban Governance in India -- Episode 31 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Shruti Rajagopalan). 60. The Life and Times of Abhinandan Sekhri -- Episode 254 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Abhinandan Sekhri). 61. The Tiebout Model. 62. Every Act of Government Is an Act of Violence -- Amit Varma. 63. Taxes Should Be Used for Governance, Not Politics -- Amit Varma. 64. The Effects of Democratization on Public Goods and Redistribution: Evidence from China -- Nancy Qian, Gerard Padró i Miquel, Monica Martinez-Bravo and Yang Yao. 65. Sneaky Artist Sees the World -- Episode 260 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Nishant Jain). 66. Science and Covid-19 -- Episode 221 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Anirban Mahapatra). 66. Centrally Sponsored Government Schemes -- Episode 17 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Pranay Kotasthane.). 67. India's states can be laboratories for policy innovation and reform -- Karthik Muralidharan. 68. Clientelism in Indian Villages -- Siwan Anderson, Patrick Francois, and Ashok Kotwal. 69. Patching Development -- Rajesh Veeraraghavan. 70. Opportunity, Choice and the IPL (2008) — Amit Varma. 71. The IPL is Here and Here Are Six Reasons to Celebrate It (2019) — Amit Varma. 72. Climate Change and Our Power Sector -- Episode 278 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Akshay Jaitley and Ajay Shah). 73. The Delhi Smog -- Episode 44 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Vivek Kaul). 74. The Life and Times of Nilanjana Roy -- Episode 284 of The Seen and the Unseen. 75. The Life and Times of Nirupama Rao -- Episode 269 of The Seen and the Unseen. 76. The Life and Times of Mrinal Pande -- Episode 263 of The Seen and the Unseen. 77. Objects Speak to Annapurna Garimella -- Episode 257 of The Seen and the Unseen. 78. Letters for a Nation: From Jawaharlal Nehru to His Chief Ministers 1947-1963 -- Edited by Madhav Khosla. 79. To Raise a Fallen People -- Rahul Sagar. 80. The Progressive Maharaja -- Rahul Sagar. 81. India = Migration -- Episode 128 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Chinmay Tumbe). 82. India: A Sacred Geography -- Diana Eck. 83. Unlikely is Inevitable — Amit Varma. 84. The Law of Truly Large Numbers. 85. Political Ideology in India -- Episode 131 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Rahul Verma). Check out Amit's online course, The Art of Clear Writing. And subscribe to The India Uncut Newsletter. It's free! The illustration for this episode is by Nishant Jain aka Sneaky Artist. Check out his podcast, Twitter, Instagram and Substack.
Global Policy Watch: Energy Is Flagging Insights on burning policy issues from an Indian lens— RSJWho do you think has a better long-term view of the world? An administration struggling to control inflation and rising oil prices, one that’s facing midterm elections with the lowest approval ratings, or large institutional investors projected to own about 20 per cent of all US listed companies by 2028? I don’t know. I mean, it is conventional wisdom that all that the likes of Blackrock, Vanguard and State Street care about is making profits on their investments. On the other hand, the government is expected to take long-term decisions in the interest of society. But when you own 20 per cent of everything, I would suspect you will conclude there’s no other way to maximise profits except trying to do good for everyone. I mean, there won’t be a lot of arbitrage left anymore in choosing specific industries or sectors. You will have to do ‘sabka saath, sabka vikaas’. No wonder ESG (Environment, Social and Governance) investing has been important for these large institutional investors. That ESG is now a critical agenda tracked by the board of every company because of these investors' efforts. All good. Now, let’s look at the incentives of political parties. It is to win elections. Everything else follows only after you have the keys to power. And elections in democracies are a permanent affair. There’s a key election of some kind happening every other year. Will a political party craft a policy that’s painful in the short run but good in the long run? They do, but it requires a combination of inspiring leadership or ideology, a looming crisis and a powerful communication strategy to walk on this difficult path. That’s rare. Instead, what you have is parties taking the easy, opportunistic way out while hoping it will somehow make sense in the long run. Two Roads DivergedHere are two news items from last week for you.#1: Democrats may be on the verge of passing historic climate legislation after all.The $369 billion of climate spending in the Inflation Reduction Act that Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) announced on Wednesday includes funding for clean energy and electric vehicle tax breaks, domestic manufacturing of batteries and solar panels, and pollution reduction.If the bill’s policies work as intended, it would push American consumers and industry away from reliance on fossil fuels, penalize fossil fuel companies for excess emissions of methane, and inject needed funds into pollution cleanup.The bill would use tax credits to incentivize consumers to buy electric cars, electric HVAC systems, and other forms of cleaner technology that would lead to less emissions from cars and electricity generation, and includes incentives for companies to manufacture that technology in the United States. It also includes money for a host of other climate priorities, like investing in forest and coastal restoration and in resilient agriculture.#2: Blackrock warns it will vote against more climate change resolutionsBlackRock (BLK.N) said on Tuesday it expected to support fewer shareholder resolutions on issues such as climate change in the current season of annual general meetings, as many proposals were too prescriptive.While BlackRock said its view on the importance of managing climate risk remained unchanged and it continued to engage with companies over their efforts, a number of resolutions put forward at recent AGMs were too constraining on boards.Among such resolutions that it said it could oppose were those requiring management to stop providing finance to traditional energy companies, or those requiring alignment of bank business models to a specific climate scenario.Among votes that BlackRock has already opposed was an April 13 call for Canadian lender Bank of Montreal to adopt a policy to link financing with the International Energy Agency's Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario.While the US administration is going down the path of spending more on tackling climate change, Blackrock seems to be signalling a u-turn. What Led Them HereSo, back to the question with which we started. Who do you trust is taking a long-term view here?Some context here will help. These moves have come on the back of an energy crisis facing the world today. Most of the commentary on this has attributed this to the Ukraine war and the sanction on Russia that followed. The general view is that this crisis will disappear once the war ends. How true is this? Not very if you look closely. Over the past many years, the energy inventory has been declining because the supply has held flat or gone down while the demand continues to be robust (except for the pandemic blip). The green sources of energy haven’t been able to fill the gap on the supply side. As we have come out of the pandemic, the global demand has gone up (though still below 2019 levels) while the supply isn’t keeping pace. This was even before the Russian invasion. The reasons for this aren’t hard to locate. Conventional energy companies have found it hard to fund new projects because ESG investing norms have made the availability of capital difficult. The so-called ‘extractive industries’ are orphans in capital and debt markets. Most of the growth in energy supplies in the last decade has come from shales. A lot of money was put to work to increase the efficiency of pumping out oil from shales. The three big shale fields in the Permian, the Bakken and the Eagle Ford pumped out enough oil to not have anyone worry about supply shortages anytime in the last decade. But like all good things, we have depleted these fields at rates faster than predicted. There’s been hardly any capacity developed that has backfilled these fields elsewhere. And it is unlikely we will get a second-time lucky so soon in finding rich fields like them. If the market were efficient, we would have seen capital find its way into funding newer sources. But the ESG overdrive led by the Big 3 index funds put up a barrier to that flow. And the energy companies that are making big profits now because of the high prices aren’t themselves putting money into conventional extraction. That would be seen as a negative in the market. So, even they are being constrained by the ESG norms. Into this decadal low in investment in production came the Ukraine war. Things have gone further south since. Europe needs Russian gas, and Putin is enjoying the gradual choking of the supply that will make things worse during the oncoming winter. Only last week, Russia’s Gazprom told its customers in Europe it cannot guarantee gas supplies because of ‘extraordinary’ circumstances. Heh!Gazprom said stopping another turbine at the Nord Stream 1 pipeline would cut daily gas production to 20%, halving the current level of supply. It is likely to make it more difficult for EU countries to replenish their stores of gas before winter.The Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which pumps gas from Russia to Germany, has been running well below capacity for weeks, and was completely shut down for a 10-day maintenance break earlier this month.The European Commission has urged countries to cut gas use by 15% over the next seven months after Russia warned it could curb or halt supplies altogether. Under the proposals, the voluntary target could become mandatory in an emergency. On Tuesday energy ministers will meet in Brussels in an attempt to sign off the plans.But numerous opt-outs are expected amid resistance from some member states.To this, add that the US has been depleting its SPR (Special Petroleum Reserves) to boost supply and keep prices under control. Last week it announced another 20 million barrels were released from SPR. But this isn’t sustainable, and it is likely this is the last of it.I don’t know about you, but I think the supply situation looks to worsen in the future. Evaluating the ResponsesNow, look at the two news articles that we started with. After a decade of not adding real capacity to boost energy supply, starving investments in conventional energy, stupidly shutting down nuclear plants and going for investments in wind and solar that are by themselves energy and capital intensive to set up, we are here with two kinds of response. One is from the US government. Instead of finding ways to invest in the sector to solve this crisis is going the other way. Releasing special reserves, cutting taxes on gasoline, placing more restrictions on the conventional energy sector and planning to deficit fund more investments in green energy without a clear answer on how it will help with supply. These will only increase demand in the short term without any corresponding increase in supply to address it.The other is from the face of greedy capitalism, Blackrock, who thinks we might have overdone the ESG investment thesis without fully appreciating the unintended consequences of starving the oil and gas sector of investments. Maybe the rhetoric against conventional energy has gone overboard without an immediate answer to the supply shortfall. So, some calibration is needed now. Else, there will be significant pain ahead with misallocation of investments and a deepening energy crisis. The poor and the developing nations are most affected by higher oil prices. And poverty is worse for climate change. More than fossil fuels. Those then are the two narratives. As London and NYC sweat in an unprecedented heat wave this summer, you know who will win the narrative battle. The war will be lost though. Thanks for reading Anticipating the Unintended! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support our work.A Framework A Week: Building Models Tools to help think about public policy— RSJLast week I came across this piece on ‘Models as mediating instruments’ by Margaret Morrison and Mary S. Morgan. You should read the full chapter. The authors lay out the importance of model building in helping us learn about theories and how they might operate in the world:Models are one of the critical instruments of modern science. We know that models function in a variety of different ways within the sciences to help us to learn not only about theories but also about the world. So far, however, there seems to be no systematic account of how they operate in both of these domains.And then, they proceed to outline how we should think about developing models that function as autonomous agents and as instruments of investigation of the world. Here’s a short extract from their introduction to model building:In order to make good our claim, we need to raise and answer a number of questions about models. We outline the important questions here before going on to provide detailed answers. These questions cover four basic elements in our account of models, namely how they are constructed, how they function, what they represent and how we learn from them.Construction What gives models their autonomy? Part of the answer lies in their construction. It is common to think that models can be derived entirely from theory or from data. However, if we look closely at the way models are constructed we can begin to see the sources of their independence. It is because they are neither one thing nor the other, neither just theory nor data, but typically involve some of both (and often additional ‘outside’ elements), that they can mediate between theory and the world. In addressing these issues we need to isolate the nature of this partial independence and determine why it is more useful than full independence or full dependence. Functioning What does it mean for a model to function autonomously? Here we explore the various tasks for which models can be used. We claim that what it means for a model to function autonomously is to function like a tool or instrument. Instruments come in a variety of forms and fulfil many different functions. By its nature, an instrument or tool is independent of the thing it operates on, but it connects with it in some way. Although a hammer is separate from both the nail and the wall, it is designed to fulfil the task of connecting the nail to the wall. So too with models. They function as tools or instruments and are independent of, but mediate between things; and like tools, can often be used for many different tasks. Representing Why can we learn about the world and about theories from using models as instruments? To answer this we need to know what a model consists of. More specifically, we must distinguish between instruments which can be used in a purely instrumental way to effect something and instruments which can also be used as investigative devices for learning something. We do not learn much from the hammer. But other sorts of tools (perhaps just more sophisticated ones) can help us learn things. The thermometer is an instrument of investigation: it is physically independent of a saucepan of jam, but it can be placed into the boiling jam to tell us its temperature. Scientific models work like these kinds of investigative instruments – but how? The critical difference between a simple tool, and a tool of investigation is that the latter involves some form of representation: models typically represent either some aspect of the world, or some aspect of our theories about the world, or both at once. Hence the model’s representative power allows it to function not just instrumentally, but to teach us something about the thing it represents. LearningAlthough we have isolated representation as the mechanism that enables us to learn from models we still need to know how this learning takes place and we need to know what else is involved in a model functioning as a mediating instrument. Part of the answer comes from seeing how models are used in scientific practice. We do not learn much from looking at a model – we learn more from building the model and from manipulating it. Just as one needs to use or observe the use of a hammer in order to really understand its function, similarly, models have to be used before they will give up their secrets. In this sense, they have the quality of a technology – the power of the model only becomes apparent in the context of its use. Models function not just as a means of intervention, but also as a means of representation. It is when we manipulate the model that these combined features enable us to learn how and why our interventions work.The whole chapter and Mary Morgan’s book (The World in the Model: How Economists Work and Think) is a great tool for building models. India Policy Watch: Hoping Against HopeInsights on burning policy issues in India - Pranay KotasthaneEarlier this week, the union cabinet approved a revival package for the ever-embattled Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited (BSNL) worth ₹1.64 lakh crores. Let’s analyse this decision ground-up Let’s look at the two stated aims. The first argument is that the presence of BSNL in the telecom market acts as a market balancer; it plays a significant role in providing services to rural areas and during natural disasters. The second argument is that the telecom sector is strategic; hence, BSNL will become the vehicle for the government to “promote indigenous 4G technology development”. In other words, BSNL will have to commission an atmanirbhar 4G technology that Tata Consultancy Services and C-DOT are developing. A part of the bailout—₹22,471 crores—is allocated for capital expenditure on this deployment.For a moment, assume that both objectives are desirable. The question is, are there alternative methods to achieve the two stated objectives?Given the positive externalities of network infrastructure today, government intervention in rural connectivity makes sense. But the instrument required to achieve this objective doesn’t require the government to produce this service by itself through a public sector unit. The same objective could be achieved by a government procurement contract which finances private sector players for capital expenditure on network infrastructure in low-density areas. Think of a non-coercive version of the Regional Air Travel Connectivity Scheme - UDAN, but for mobile connectivity. This method would likely be far cheaper than attempting to revive a government-run company that incurs losses despite playing a game in which the umpire also belongs to the same team. This would be beneficial for the people living in far-flung areas too. Why condemn them to slow 3G services of BSNL when the government can finance private players to provide 4G services instead?Next, consider the strategic necessity argument. 4G was introduced in India a full decade ago. When the world (and India) is commissioning 5G connectivity, an Indian consortium has now done trials for home-grown 4G technology. Granted, that 4G is not going away anytime soon, but why should it now be shoved down BSNL’s throat? To me, it seems like a classic error—a violation of the Tinbergen Rule, which we had discussed in edition #135. The rule says: use one policy instrument for just one target (or as few as possible). Burdening one instrument with several objectives often results in a system that fulfils none. In the current case, it means that BSNL can either be an instrument to connect remote areas or it can be a testbed for indigenous technologies, but not both. To expect it to do both would make things tougher for an already troubled entity. More important, it would be a waste of taxpayers’ hard-earned money.Since allowing adversaries to manage your core networks is a strategic vulnerability, a better alternative would be to give domestic players a target for eliminating Huawei from their 4G networks over time. If the indigenous solution is any good, some players will consider opting for it. The second option is to support the indigenous 4G’s go-to-market programmes in other countries. Either way, the objective can be achieved without hoping against the BSNL hope.Finally, a reminder. The cost to society for one rupee raised by governments in India is ₹3 (Marginal Cost of Public Funds). So, Indians will be incurring nearly ₹5 lakh crores. For comparison, that is nearly 10 per cent of RBI’s foreign exchange reserves in equivalent rupees. Is protecting BSNL really worth this kind of expenditure?Course Advertisement: Admissions for the Sept 2022 cohort of Takshashila’s Graduate Certificate in Public Policy programme are now open! Visit this link to apply.PolicyWTF: Playing with Fire AgainThis section looks at egregious public policies. Policies that make you go: WTF, Did that really happen? - Pranay KotasthaneA couple of weeks ago, a film poster depicting Kaali Maa began an outrage cycle. As it happens with frightening regularity nowadays, it culminated in a couple of FIRs being filed against the director. Forget the fact that the movie was released in Canada by an Indian citizen from Tamil Nadu; the FIRs were nevertheless registered in Delhi and UP. It’s not worth spending time and energy on these Whack-A-Mole outrages. What concerns me more is the Indian High Commission in Ottawa’s press release. It read:We have received complaints from leaders of the Hindu community in Canada about disrespectful depiction of Hindu Gods on the poster of a film showcased as part of the 'Under the Tent' project at the Aga Khan Museum, Toronto.Our Consulate General in Toronto has conveyed these concerns to the organizers of the event.We are also informed that several Hindu groups have approached authorities in Canada to take action.We urge the Canadian authorities and the event organizers to withdraw all such provocative material. In the past, the official Indian position would have been to play the matter down and leave the issue to the host country. It is unusual and disappointing for an Indian embassy to act as a messenger for religious groups in other countries. Canadian citizens of the Hindu faith aren’t Indians. This admonishment by an Indian government entity is out of place.I say that the government is playing with fire here because acting on behalf of citizens of other countries—for whatever reason—is a slippery slope. There’s a reason that Indian immigrants are welcomed in many countries. Contrast that with China. The aggressive opposition by some Chinese immigrants against criticisms of the Chinese Communist Party in their host country ends up being detrimental to all Chinese immigrants. It’s in India’s interest that emigrants become trustworthy members of their host community. We shouldn’t go down the path China has.HomeWorkReading and listening recommendations on public policy matters[Article] In the last edition, we had written about the Enforcement Directorate’s zeal to slap charges of money laundering. This week, the Supreme Court upheld its powers under the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA). In his latest column, Pratap Bhanu Mehta explains why this implies, “Rather than being the guardian of rights, the Supreme Court is now a significant threat to it”.[Podcast] In the latest Puliyabaazi, we take a long hard look at the consequences of emigration on India. [Article] How can the government intervene to reduce dependence on Chinese pharma APIs? Bambawale et al. explain.[Paper] Jonathan Haidt has helpfully combined all the latest research on social media’s impact on society in this one master document. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit publicpolicy.substack.com
She helped generations of women in India find a voice. She expanded the worldview of countless people. She confronted the horrors of our past and the fissures of our present. Urvashi Butalia joins Amit Varma in episode 287 of The Seen and the Unseen to talk about her life and learnings. Also check out: 1. Urvashi Butalia at Zubaan and Amazon. 2. The Other Side of Silence -- Urvashi Butalia. 3. Zubaan Books and Kali for Women. 4. Turning the Page for Feminism -- Nilanjana Roy on Urvashi Butalia. 5. Episodes on The Seen and the Unseen that touched on feminism with Paromita Vohra, Kavita Krishnan, Mrinal Pande, Kavitha Rao, Namita Bhandare, Shrayana Bhattacharya, Mukulika Banerjee, Manjima Bhattacharjya and Nilanjana Roy. 6. The Life and Times of Nilanjana Roy -- Episode 284 of The Seen and the Unseen. 7. Memories and Things — Episode 195 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Aanchal Malhotra). 8. Tales from the Kathasaritsagara -- Somadeva (translated by Arshia Sattar). 9. The Auschwitz Memorial Twitter account. 10. Amitava Kumar Finds the Breath of Life -- Episode 265 of The Seen and the Unseen. 11. The Will to Change — Bell Hooks. 12. Men Must Step Up Now -- Amit Varma. 13. The Legend of Sleepy Hollow -- Washington Irving. 14. Mahadevi Varma and Sheila Bhatia. 15. The Life and Times of Abhinandan Sekhri -- Episode 254 of The Seen and the Unseen. 16. The Ferment of Our Founders — Episode 272 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Shruti Kapila). 17. Rukmini Sees India's Multitudes — Episode 261 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Rukmini S). 18. The Verdict: Decoding India's Elections -- Prannoy Roy and Dorab Sopariwala. 19. The Gita Press and Hindu Nationalism — Episode 139 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Akshaya Mukul). 20. What Have We Done With Our Independence? — Episode 186 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Pratap Bhanu Mehta). 21. The Life and Times of Abhinandan Sekhri -- Episode 254 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Abhinandan Sekhri). 22. Towards Equality: Report of the Committee on Status of Women in India (1974). 23. The Kavita Krishnan Files -- Episode 228 of The Seen and the Unseen. 24. Manjima Bhattacharjya: The Making of a Feminist -- Episode 280 of The Seen and the Unseen. 25. Kamla Bhasin on Wikipedia. 26. Division of Hearts -- Satti Khanna and Peter Chappell. 27. Heer Ranjha. 28. Kumar Gandharva sings Nirgun Bhajans. 29. Reshma sings Bulle Shah. 30. Nusrat Fateh Ali Khan on Spotify. 31. Ek Onkar -- Harshdeep Kaur. 32. Chaudhvin Ka Chand -- Guru Dutt. 33. Pyaasa -- Guru Dutt. 34. A Question of Silence -- Marleen Gorris. Check out Amit's online course, The Art of Clear Writing. And subscribe to The India Uncut Newsletter. It's free! The illustration for this episode is by Nishant Jain aka Sneaky Artist. Check out his work on Twitter, Instagram and Substack.
India Policy Watch #1: To Catch A Falling Rupee Insights on burning policy issues in India— RSJThe Indian rupee this week declined to an all-time low as it went beyond 80 per dollar. For reasons that aren’t always clear to me, this kind of thing makes a lot of news in India. I mean, it was 79.9 the week before. There isn’t a yawning gap between that and 80. Yet opinion pieces are written, cartoons sketched, and old tweets of macroeconomic theorists like Akshay Kumar, Juhi Chawla and Sri Sri (Sri?) Ravishankar are dug out to contrast their current reactions to this phenomenon with their past asides. The WhatsApp factory also rolls out their new models that suggest how a strong dollar is bad for the US economy and how this is some kind of a switch and bait move that we are making on them. Somewhere in many of our heads, the strength of the Indian rupee is no longer subject to the dynamics of the currency market. Like many things these days, it too is anchored to our self-respect. And since our national clarion call is desh nahin jhukne doonga (won’t let the country down), we then start working on the narrative that shows all of this in a warm, positive glow. All in a day in the life of India.Anyway, I thought it would be useful to take this moment to appreciate the winds that are buffeting it, the long-term view of what will actually strengthen the rupee and then zoom out a bit to appreciate what’s happening to the US economy and what it could mean for India. The Safety Of Dollar We will start with why has the rupee gone to 80 a dollar? The simple answer is the US dollar has been more in demand since the start of the Ukraine war than before. This is true for all currencies, not just the rupee, as the chart below shows.There are reasons for this. The 40-year high inflation print that the US is witnessing month over month has turned the Fed hawkish. It is likely to raise rates by another 75 bps in its meeting next week, and the consensus suggests the benchmark rates will be around 3.4 per cent by the end of the year. These rate hikes make storing money in dollars more attractive. This potent cocktail of uncertainty around the Ukraine war, the high oil and commodity prices that make emerging markets more vulnerable and the prospect of a global recession is starting to give global fund managers a massive hangover. Their most obvious response: flight to the safety of the US dollar. The dollar demand has gone up as foreign portfolio investors have checked out of domestic equities across the world. In India, we have had over ₹2.3 trillion of outflow from the equity market so far this year. Things would have been worse had it not been for the domestic investors (mutual funds and insurers) who invested about ₹1.4 trillion during this period. The price of oil—averaging over US$ 120 or so during this year—has made things worse because we import over 90 per cent of our requirements. The across-the-board rise in commodity prices has further increased our import bill. Almost simultaneously, the high rate of inflation, the rise in interest rates and a prospect of a recession have meant our exports are beginning to soften. The commentary from our software services giants suggests the demand pipeline isn’t what it used to be. This might also show up in other export-dominated sectors as the steep rise in interest rates starts to kill off growth in developed markets. This has meant the consensus forecast among analysts for the current account deficit has inched up to 3 per cent for the year-end. We will need more dollars to support that kind of deficit. That apart, our own inflation numbers have remained high, and we are running a negative real interest rate (the difference between interest rate and rate of inflation). This will continue to support riskier assets and reward consumption that will feed back into inflation. So, expect further interest rate hikes, and that will impact growth. All of this indicates the dollar strengthening against the rupee is here to stay.Propping Up The RupeeWhat can be done to address this? This is market dynamics at play. There are too many interlinked factors here. Beyond a point, there are only tweaks that you can do in the short term to support the currency. The RBI has tried to ensure that the depreciation is orderly and gradual, which is the best it can do now. It has increased dollar inflows by loosening norms in multiple areas, helping curb volatility. The raft of measures taken here shows how many short term levers are available with a central bank to manage currency volatility. These included removing the interest rate restrictions on banks for foreign currency and non-resident deposits. Such deposits have also been exempted from the statutory liquidity requirements that Banks need to carry for their deposits. This has allowed banks to hike their savings rates for such deposits by almost 75 bps. This will attract dollar deposits from non-resident Indians. The RBI has also relaxed foreign investments in debt instruments and allowed the use of overseas foreign currency borrowing for lending domestically in foreign currency. Even the amount of external commercial borrowing businesses can do through the automatic route has been doubled to US$ 1.5 billion. These immediate measures will smoothen the flow and increase the supply of dollars. The idea here is to weather through the Fed interest rate hike storm for the next two quarters and then take stock. The RBI also made an interesting move last week that was reported as the ‘internationalisation’ of the rupee. It allowed special accounts (rupee Vostro accounts) to pay and settle exports and imports in rupees. Further, the surplus in these accounts could be invested in government T-bills and securities. What does this mean? Simply put, if Indian firms can find counterparties who are willing to trade with them in rupees, they can do so more easily than before. On the face of it, this means very little. Because there aren’t many global firms who would want to settle their trade in a currency like the rupee that will depreciate in the long-term and which isn’t useful for trade with non-Indian partners. But it allows us to trade with Russia without getting the dollar involved. In fact, it is both an economic move and a geopolitical one. We run a trade deficit with Russia. We can now pay for Russian oil in rupees. Russia can use those rupees to buy our exports. The surplus in these accounts can be used to buy government bonds. So we save on buying more dollars to settle this trade, and we create demand for government bonds because the surplus in this account will be invested there. Seems like a neat solution, and I guess the US and the west won’t mind because we have pointed out their hypocrisy on Russian gas and Saudi oil more than a few times now. Apart from this, the government has done its usual quota of excise duty tweaks to manage the situation. We have increased duties on the export of petroleum products and limited sugar and wheat exports. And we have cut import duties on key raw materials and on cooking oils to manage inflation. These won’t add to much, but it gives an impression that something’s been done to address inflation. When inflation stabilises, we will take ages to dismantle these duties. That is an old and different story. That takes care of the short term. In the long run, the rupee's strength depends on the fundamentals of our economy. We must run a current account shortfall below 2 per cent, bring down the fiscal deficit and debt to GDP ratio that have gone up significantly in the past two years and keep inflation in the four per cent range, which was the RBI mandate. All of this is hard work and will need the government to translate its words into action. Structural reforms in labour and capital have been pending for ages, the infrastructure push promised in the last budget is still in the works, and fiscal discipline is a tad out of fashion. If we continue to insist on pegging our self-respect to the rupee, then we must know what to demand from the government. Where Next?Lastly, where does the global economy go from here? Well, it is clear that the Fed and other central banks were wrong in their assessment in 2021 that the inflation was transitory. They could have raised rates then, and we wouldn’t have seen the serious inflationary pressure we have now seen for the last six months. This isn’t hindsight. There were more than a handful of sceptics about the notion of transitory inflation. So, the question is, now that the Fed has gone into the territory of whatever it takes to control inflation, what kind of a landing will we have? Will it be a short and mildly painful recession, or are we going to be in for a hard landing? As some are saying, it is possible that we will see the peak of inflation in the next few months, and then the rate hike impact will start to bring it down quickly to more comfortable levels within a year. We could then have a rate reversion cycle begin as early as the end of 2023. That is what the optimists are seeing today. However, it is possible that there’s a hard landing. That is not just inflation taking longer to tame, but the sustained high-interest environment kills growth and puts the financial system under enormous stress. There’s a possibility that a perfect storm of decline in investment, reduction in consumption and a recession could hurt incomes around the world. The pandemic saw a significant rise in debt levels for both firms and households. A scenario where interest rates stay high and incomes start coming under stress would spell bad news for the ability of these entities to service their debt. A cycle of default could then start and put the entire financial system under stress. We might not have a GFC (2008) like moment, but we could be in that vicinity in future. We have been so used to quantitative easing, low inflation and low-interest rate scenario in the last decade that it is difficult to envisage an alternative where things are radically different. Yet, as history has shown, you ignore long-tail risks at your own peril. As a parting shot, the then finance minister Manmohan Singh’s response in the Rajya Sabha addressing the fears of devaluation of the rupee needs a revisit:Let me say that in this country there seems to be a strange conspiracy between the extreme left and extreme right that there is something immoral or dishonourable about changing the exchange rate. But that is not the tradition. If you look at the whole history of India’s independence struggle before 1947 all our national leaders were fighting against the British against keeping the exchange rate of the Rupee unduly high. Why did the British keep the exchange rate of the Rupee unduly high? It was because they wanted this country to remain backward and they did not want this country to industrialise. They wanted the country to be an exporter of primary products against which all Indian economists protested. If you look at Indian history right from 1900 onwards to 1947, this was a recurrent plea of all Indian economists—not to have an exchange rate which is so high that Indian cannot export, that India cannot industrialise. But I am really surprised that something which is meant to increase the country’s exports and encourage its industrialisation is now considered as something anti-national.India Policy Watch #2: Q.E.D.Insights on burning policy issues in India— Pranay KotasthaneNowadays, it seems like just one government agency is burning the midnight oil: the Enforcement Directorate (ED). It’s never out of the headlines.There’s data to back this claim too. Responding to a Lok Sabha question earlier this year, the Minister of State (Finance) revealed that while during 2004-14, 112 searches were carried out by the ED, this number stands at 2974 in the eight years since 2014, a twenty-six-fold increase! Forget for a moment that the conviction rate of ED in raids conducted under the Foreign Exchange Management Act is merely 0.5 per cent.Whether it is political parties in the opposition, Chinese companies, fugitive economic offenders, or non-profits, the ED has become the de-facto brahmastra.Structurally, ED is a law enforcement body deriving powers from a wide range of laws. It was constituted as the “Enforcement Unit” way back in 1956. And since foreign exchange control was a big obsession back then, it primarily investigated cases arising from the Foreign Exchange Regulation Act (FERA), 1947. Then came the Foreign Exchange Management Act in 1999, the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA) in 2005, and the Fugitive Economic Offenders Act in 2018. A wide remit backed by labyrinthine economic laws made it easily weaponisable. Now, it is well-known that many law enforcement agencies in India are politicised. Neither is ED the first one nor the last. In the naughties, the “CBI raids” served the same purpose. Exploring the pervasive politicisation of the ED, Pratap Bhanu Mehta writes:The use of the ED has three purposes. The first is intimidation. The second is to keep the narrative of the old corrupt regime boiling. This is not a difficult proposition to sell to the public. But the third is to reveal the sheer self-absorption of the Opposition. “For my friends, everything; for my enemies, the law.” said a former Peruvian Field Marshal Óscar Benavides. That is precisely what seems to be happening here.Domestic politics aside, two Chinese mobile phone companies have recently come under ED investigation. In response, China’s foreign ministry spokesperson had this to say:The frequent investigations by the Indian side into Chinese enterprises not only disrupt the enterprises’ normal business activities and damage the goodwill of the enterprises, but also impedes the improvement of business environment in India and chills the confidence and willingness of market entities from other countries, including Chinese enterprises to invest and operate in India.Keeping aside the hypocrisy of China’s moralising, the spokesperson makes an important point. If the narrative goes out that economic crime investigations are being used for political purposes, India will pay a big price. Retrospective taxation was the poster child for India’s economic mismanagement last decade. We don’t need another deterrent puncturing investment dreams this decade.What could bring law enforcement agencies under control? Are there structural checks and balances that prevent political misuse? I don’t know. But an essential component of strengthening India’s Republic has to be to make investigative agencies truly autonomous from executive control. Not(PolicyWTF): The Question of ChoiceThis section looks at egregious public policies. Policies that make you go: WTF, Did that really happen? - Pranay Kotasthane"Life is like a box of chocolates. You never know what you're gonna get." This Forrest Gump quote is equally applicable to the Indian judiciary. On most days, it comes out with verdicts that just follow the prevailing social trend. But, there are also those rare moments when the judiciary stands up to defend the Republic from the Democracy. Take what happened last week. In 2019, the Central Consumer Protection Authority (CCPA) —a new regulatory body—was formed to protect consumer rights. Earlier this month, the CCPA, in its infinite wisdom, issued guidelines that prevent hotels and restaurants from levying service charges. The guidelines thundered:No collection of service charge shall be done by any other name. No hotel or restaurant shall force a consumer to pay service charge and shall clearly inform the consumer that service charge is voluntary, optional and at consumer’s discretion… No restriction on entry or provision of services based on collection of service charge shall be imposed on consumers. Service charge shall not be collected by adding it along with the food bill and levying GST on the total amount.Why would the Indian State want to invest resources and time in changing these small matters is an always-relevant confounding question. But this time, the courts came to a partial rescue. The Delhi High Court stayed the guidelines. The judge even had a libertarian statement to go with the ruling. He said:If you don't want to pay, don't enter the restaurant. It is ultimately a question of choice.Music to my ears. Information asymmetry is not a problem as long as the service charges are known to the consumer beforehand. There is no market failure. The State can move on. How I wish the courts applied this new-found virtue of choice to other areas such as:If you don't want to get offended, don't read the book. It is ultimately a question of choice. No need to ban the book. If you don't want to pay, don't enter the movie theatre. It is ultimately a question of choice. No need to cap movie tickets.If you don’t like what others say about you, don’t talk to them. It is ultimately a question of choice. No need for defamation laws.You get the drift. Don’t make the State a tool to address your pet grievance. It has bigger fish to fry. (And let it apply service charges for the fried fish.)Global Policy Watch: The Three InternetsInsights on policy issues making news around the world— Pranay KotasthaneMany editions ago, I linked to one of Yiqin Fu’s articles on the Chinese internet. There’s so much about it that’s different beyond the fact that the State tightly controls the information flow there. For instance, Fu explains that the Chinese internet is different from the Western internet in these respects:One, search engines (and not just Google) are hardly used. People read primarily through social media feeds. And two, the complete dominance of super-apps:Take WeChat as an example. It is home to the vast majority of China’s original writing, and yet: 1. It doesn’t allow any external links; 2. Its posts are not indexed by search engines such as Google or Baidu, and its own search engine is practically useless; 3. You can’t check the author’s other posts if you open the page outside of the WeChat app. In other words, each WeChat article is an orphan, not linked to anything else on the Internet, not even the author’s previous work.The result of a lack of rediscovery means that knowledge creation, reflection, and historical context-setting are disincentivised. This resembles some parts of the Indian internet but is not quite the same. This architecture also means that people are pushed towards tracking the latest social media trend, with little or no incentive to create and read time-invariant content, such as blogs, articles, and papers without news pegs.So, there are three broad internet prototypes:The Western one: primary access is through desktop/laptop, not super-app based, search-engine driven, high discoverability of older articles, and email-based.The Chinese one: primary access is through the mobile phone, super-app driven, low discoverability, and instant-messaging based.The Indian one: The elites see an internet that’s a mix of the Western one and the Chinese one minus the censorship, while the non-elites are experiencing something much closer to the Chinese one. Forget geopolitics for a moment. And consider the impact of these three internet prototypes on their respective users. Will their cognitive effects be different? If yes, in what way? This is a fascinating question to which I have no good answers yet. What do you think? Another downside to skipping desktop is that weak ties built around emails are never formed. I don’t have data on Chinese employees’ modes of communication, but I wouldn’t be surprised if 90% of work communication is done over instant messaging. Multinational firms still use email, although when I asked on Chinese social media, my readers complained that emails often went unread. It seems like in the Chinese workplace, instant messaging still reigns supreme.Fu argues that the result is that weak ties through cold emails are seldom formed. Again, not very different from the case in India where we need to have a phone number in order to form a weak link now. What is the social consequence of this phenomenon?HomeWorkReading and listening recommendations on public policy matters[Podcast] MacroVoices #333: Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna in conversation with Harley Bassman on Inflation, Bond Yields, VIX vs MOVE, Demographics & More.[Blog] Pakistan is in big trouble: Noah Smith covers the subcontinent for the second week in a row.[Article] The functioning of the Enforcement Directorate, by Sonam Saigal.[Paper] How to reform high-stakes exam systems? is an important question in the Indian context. A new NBER paper titled Pareto Improvements in the Contest for College Admissions has some clues. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit publicpolicy.substack.com
My guest this month is Ananya Vajpeyi (read more about her and her main publications here). Her current academic home is the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) in Delhi. As you will hear, I did not have a lot of work this time: Ananya only required minimal prompting to tell me the story of her life so far, which spans several countries in three continents and many fascinating encounters in and around academia. Ananya's many teachers include Arindam Chakrabarti, Madhu Khanna, Robert Young, Alexis Sanderson, Jim Benson, Matthew Kapstein, Patrick Olivelle, David Shulman, Sheldon Pollock, Gayatri Spivak and Wendy Doniger. She has worked closely with Pratap Bhanu Mehta, Ashis Nandy and Rajeev Bhargava.She studied and did research at Lady Shri Ram College, the School of Languages at JNU, the University of Oxford, the University of Chicago, the University of Pune, Deccan College and the Bhandarkar Institute.Read more about Ferdinand de Saussure and his Course in General Linguistics, the volume resulting from the 'Ideology and Status of Sanskrit conference; about shudras, Shivaji, Ambedkar and Jim Laine; the Murty Library and the controversy around its editor; and about the fellowships at the Kluge Center and at CRASSH.
India Policy Watch #1: What UP Tells UsInsights on burning policy issues in India — RSJIf there was more proof needed that Indian politics has changed forever, it came this week with the results of five state assembly elections. BJP won the big prize, UP, with a comfortable margin while AAP swept Punjab marking its presence beyond Delhi in a spectacular fashion. The question is what is this thing that has changed? Is this the usual hyperbolic overreading of events that we have come to associate with the media these days? Or have things changed in a more fundamental manner in Indian democracy? I read through much of the analysis that appeared in the print media to understand this. Something Has EndedThree themes emerged. One that focused on some kind of an end of the ‘old republic’. Shekhar Gupta writes of this in the Business Standard:“For 60 years since we became a republic in 1950, our politics was all structured around the Congress and its conception of a socialist, secular state. That epoch has faded fully. Now we are wading neck deep through a new, BJP/RSS/Hindu nationalism epoch. The preference of Hindu nationalism over Hindutva is consciously made. Religion has its oomph, but the pull of religiously defined new nationalism is enormously greater.Today, if all of BJP’s rivals in Uttar Pradesh made a spectacle of walking to the Kashi Vishwanath temple across the new corridor—which I quite like—the secular republic has been redefined. Everybody has fallen in line. Today, we have a new nationalism, a new secularism and increasingly a new socialism redefined as efficient, non-leaky welfarism.”The other theme was about some kind of an end to politics of identity, based on caste and other social formulations. As Pratap Bhanu Mehta writes in the Indian Express:“The BJP has transformed the nature of politics in ways to which the Opposition has no answer. The first is a commitment to a generative conception of politics. The sense that the BJP has a deep social base, especially amongst women and lower castes, and a spectacular geographic reach as Manipur has demonstrated, completely belies the identity determinism that has for so long characterised Indian politics. The project of now opposing any national party on the basis of a coalition of fragmented identities is dead.”Finally, there was the question of does economic performance matter in the face of ideology? Quoting Pratap Bhanu Mehta again:“There will be another time to discuss how much of Yogi’s triumph in UP has to do with governance and delivery. This is empirically a complicated matter. This is in no small part because what a regime gets credit for is as much a matter of prior trust as it is of facts. Certainly Yogi’s new welfarism, or crackdown on certain kinds of corrupt intermediaries may contribute to the BJP’s popularity. But the idea that all of that was enough to wipe out the effects of the Covid-19 devastation, unprecedented inflation, a dip in consumer spending and a real jobs crisis requires more explanation. Perhaps the angriest and the most devastated no longer feel politics is the conduit for solving their problems. Your protest will be expressed more as social pathology, not as political revolt.”At a macro level, these seem to be the conclusions to be drawn from BJP’s big win in UP - an epoch has ended with the dominance of a new nationalism as defined by the BJP; identity politics that emerged from the Mandal movement is dead; and, people care more for ideology plus welfarism than economic performance. Are these valid conclusions or is this the usual overanalysis of a single election outcome? Is there a simpler explanation for the win in UP? Let me take you back to one of the predictions I made at the start of the year about UP elections:“The BJP election machine will continue its winning run barring the odd defeats in Punjab and Goa. The big prize, UP, will be fought hard but BJP will win a safe majority. The bahujan vote of the depleted BSP will shift to it more than to SP and that will make all the difference.”The vote share numbers that are emerging seem to suggest that’s what has happened. We didn’t have the usual triangular contests this time around. That worked for the BJP because the bahujan viewed it with less suspicion than in the past and the alternative of going to the Yadav-dominated SP wasn’t too alluring for them. Maybe, it is mere electoral arithmetic at play than some grand narrative. It is difficult to conclude. However, I won’t deny there are fundamental issues about our republic we must contend with as we look at the politics around us now. Electoral arithmetic doesn’t come out of a social or political vacuum. So, I will pick up three faultlines that deserve attention for where our polity stands today.Representation And NationalismI will pick up the idea of representation in a democracy first. The democratic idea of sovereignty of people means there has to be a definition of what constitutes the ‘people’. And once you have defined the people, you then have to contend with the numerical advantage of various groups or identities within the people because democracy is a game of numbers. In India, the idea of a representational democracy took formal roots with the Morley-Minto Reforms of 1909 that introduced elections to legislative councils and allowed Indians to be elected to them. Muslims were granted separate electorates with seats reserved for them where only Muslims would be polled. This was to ensure a ‘fair share’ of representation of Muslims who would otherwise be underrepresented in elections where the Hindus would always be in a majority. This is a central conundrum in any democracy that has a permanent group that’s seen to be a majority by a permanent minority. If you follow the principles of equality and one person - one vote, it is likely the majority will always win the elections. How do you then safeguard the interests of minorities? One answer was a separate electorate that was suggested by the Morley-Minto Act. The other could be by giving a veto on key issues to the minorities that would make them more secure. But both these formulations go against the fundamental nature of democracy and, more importantly, risk majoritarian backlash. The greater the backlash, the harder the minority demand for security in the form of special power or concessions in a democracy. You get into a vicious cycle then. This problem of representation played out fully in the two decades leading up to 1947. This was the unsolvable question that was the basis for partition. However, partition might have solved this issue for Pakistan but the question remained open for India which still had about 20 per cent of the minority population. So our response was in the form of a Constitution that didn’t look back into the past for inspiration and stayed focused on the values of liberty, equality and fraternity. The hope was for a form of civic nationalism to emerge and for people to focus on their individual freedoms and mutual interdependence to power the nation into a new future. This was easier said than done. Because the minority can take solace in a liberal Constitution but then the question arises who will wield the power of administering it. If the majority administer it with the wrong intent, no amount of lofty ideals of the Constitution can assure the minority of their freedoms. This is what led to a finely balanced model of administration by the Congress after independence that, in some sense, gave the minority a veto on various issues. That this veto was abused by the leaders of the minorities and by the Congress is a separate issue. It led to the minorities being seen as a vote bank and continued to fester a sense of anger among the majority at this pampered treatment. A dominant Congress with strong leaders could manage these contradictions without precipitating things. This balance was shattered in the mid-80s with the Rajiv Gandhi government, that instead of containing these issues as was the political custom, tried to take advantage of them by riding the twin horses of Hindu and Muslim appeasement. The Ayodhya movement, the bogey of Muslim appeasement using Shah Bano case as an example, the vocal assertion of Hindu victimhood of the past and its desire for revival emerged from there. The Mandal movement that encouraged fragmented identities among the majority delayed the inevitable for some time. That project is now dead largely because its leadership has no credibility anymore, it has no focal point to rally people and the BJP has melded those fragmented identities into a larger Hindu identity. Muslim appeasement or the alleged veto of the past has been replaced by a complete shunting out from representative politics in most states where the BJP is in power. The UP win where the election was fought on the 80-20 plank and where less than 5 percent of minorities voted for the winning party bookends the cycle that began three decades back. This might appear to many like a defeat of appeasement politics and a win for equality as defined in the Constitution. It is decidedly not. A permanent minority stripped of representation will agitate and fight for it. History has shown this doesn’t go well for a nation. The horrors of our partition are but just one example of it.Cultural Nationalism And Appropriating HistoryThe other area of interest is culture and history that have always provided the fuel needed to drive nationalism. History is always contentious in a land as ancient and continuously inhabited as India. History isn’t only what’s written in the books by scholars. There is also a living memory of the past that gets passed down to generations. In the decades leading up to our independence, the question of how to integrate our history into the national movement was a tricky one. Our present as Indians under colonial rule then gave us a single identity but our past fragmented us on caste and religious lines in ways that were fundamental to our conception of self. This is what prompted the likes of Gandhi and Ambedkar to imagine the project of founding a modern India as an act of forgetting our past. To them, our past might have had glorious achievements but it was also violent, unequal and amoral. We could study to draw lessons from it but it had nothing to contribute to the imagination of a modern Indian state. So, let the past be. Let people figure out which past they want to read or imagine. Let there be competing narratives about it. But the state should be forward-looking and progressive. It should draw none of its legitimacy from the past. This was a good model to adopt; possibly, the only moral one given our history. But it had two problems. One, it ignored the living memory of people about their past completely. This memory that was repressed then found its expression in a more radical and uninformed view of our past that was kept alive and propagated by the likes of Sangh parivaar. Two, the Marxist historians used state sponsorship to purvey a version of history that served the values of the modern Indian state but in the process whitewashed all truths of our past that were inconvenient to this narrative. In fact, many other voices that questioned these versions were shut out. This was an ethical academic folly. But today that mistake seems worse. Instead of having a well researched and rigorous counter to the Marxist versions, we have competing views now that’s mere propaganda. That’s the price to pay for not letting legitimate contrarian views take roots. The versions of our history and culture that are spreading now through WhatsApp universities and other social media platforms not only counter the Marxian view, they also delegitimise the founding principles on which the modern Indian state was built. This is now an irreversible process. The UP election victory was preceded by elaborate ceremonies of laying the foundation of the Ram temple in Ayodhya and opening up of the new Kashi Vishwanath corridor. Alternative histories and versions now emerge every day with more dubious claims about our past that support the narrative of the current regime. The radical act of amnesia that marked our founding moment has been replaced by a vivid, technicolour Bollywood-ised version starring the likes of Akshay Kumar and Ajay Devgn. We have swung from one extreme to the other. Nothing good comes from reopening old wounds. As Ghalib once wrote:“jalā hai jism jahāñ dil bhī jal gayā hogā kuredte ho jo ab raakh justujū kyā hai” (We persist in digging up the past. No idea why.)Trading OffLastly, I agree with Pratap Bhanu Mehta that people no longer see politics as a conduit for solving their problems. I don’t know why he thinks this has happened. My view is this is the usual course of things in India. In the 75 years since our independence, we have always had a grand narrative that calls upon our people to make sacrifices for the greater good of our nation. In the Nehruvian years, it was about building a modern India unfettered by its past by letting the state become large and all-powerful. The people were supposed to kowtow to a prescriptive, omniscient state because we were building a new India. This was followed by the Indira era where the pretence of a new India was forgotten because there weren’t any resources left to build one. What was left was a hell where every citizen was asked to pay for the ineptitude of the state in the name of socialism. The two decades post 1991 were a kind of an exception where economic freedom and growth were being promised and the sacrifice being asked from people was to look beyond their historical baggage of identity. It is no surprise that this period saw maximum social mobility and internal migration. We are now on to a different kind of compact. The proposition of this regime today is this - we are doing the difficult job of reclaiming the soul of India that was crushed for over a thousand years by invaders of various hues. This awakening might need sacrifices in the short-term on economic performance. You have lived through this for 75 years. What’s another 25? The UP victory is a confirmation of this. Economic outperformance is hard work with no clear linkage to electoral benefits. Reviving a glorious past that’s largely mythical and promoting welfarism is much easier with better payoffs.Maybe I’m being overly pessimistic. It is possible that the broader Hindu identity project that’s on will meld all other castes and communities into a composite that’s more equal and less discriminating. Maybe the nationalism project will not be forever in need of an ‘other’ to fight and keep itself relevant. Instead of being a source of vicarious joy to the mediocre which it usually is, this brand of nationalism might inspire a generation to put itself in the service of the nation. Possible? Who knows? Maybe we will reconcile with our past once we have rewritten all our history in the way we think it happened. The permanent majority will then forever be rid of its sense of victimhood. It could happen. These are all in the realms of possibility. Maybe I should be hopeful. But then I look at history. And it tells me not to bet against it. India Policy Watch #2: Irrational Fears and Homemade PotionsInsights on burning policy issues in India — Pranay KotasthaneConfirmation bias is a powerful cognitive bias. The tendency to search for information that confirms one’s own preconceptions is on full display in the technology and trade domains after the Russia-Ukraine war. For those who seek economic and technological self-sufficiency for India, this war has come at a right time to bolster their case for everything from data localisation, domestic social media platforms to SWIFT alternatives and de-dollarisation. The common refrain is: “see, this is what happens when you have trade and tech interdependence with the West. Imagine if the West were to use the same instruments against India in the future. Shouldn’t we decouple before they do this to us?”Without doubt, this narrative will find resonance amongst many policymakers and Indian citizens. But before they convert aatmanirbharta into a full-on quest for autarky, I have three counter-points to offer.First, the biggest lesson to draw from the Russia-Ukraine war is not that we need to become self-sufficient, but just that invading other countries comes at a humungous human cost to one’s own citizens. Nuclear-armed invaders might have immunity from conventional warfare by other nuclear-armed powers, but they will face a response in other domains—economic, technological, and sub-conventional. I also suspect there’s the availability heuristic at play here. Many Indians recall the economic sanctions against India after the Pokhran tests. They fear that the information age variant of those sanctions could be similar to what Russia is facing. That conclusion completely ignores the history of the last twenty years. The days of India-Pakistan hyphenation are long behind us. The West too needs a powerful India to counter China. We forget that for this reason, the same post-Pokhran sanctions were replaced by a civil nuclear deal within a short period of seven years. There’s also a category error in this comparison. Government-to-government sanctions against nuclear tests conducted on one’s soil are entirely different from the combined might of multi-State, market, and social sanctions that Russia’s invasions have invited. And so, since India has no designs to invade any other country (I sure hope so), we need not spend sleepless nights over similar sanctions.Second, the pursuit of tech self-sufficiency is itself a near impossible goal. Whatever the level of domestic alternatives we build, there will still be some levers left in the hands of other technologically advanced countries to throttle India’s progress. I had earlier written that the idea of high-tech national industries is anachronistic.That's because high-tech industries today rely on extensive cross-border movements of intermediate products, talent, and intellectual property. As R&D costs required to produce technological improvements have risen across sectors, erstwhile 'national' industries have been transformed into global supply chains. Instead of national champions making complete products independently, companies only specialise in specific parts of global supply chains.. Dependencies for intermediate goods and specialised equipment on other countries is inescapeable.The impact of global ecosystems is exactly what China is discovering now as the West begins to cut its access to leading-edge semiconductor manufacturing and devotes resources to prevent industrial espionage by China in high-tech collaborations. India shouldn’t be spending money, time, and resources on a delusionary goal. Third, India needs strong collaborations with the West precisely for increasing its aatmashakti. Indians are deeply embedded in the West’s technology sector and that’s a source of immense national strength. These connections offer tremendous opportunities for India’s growth. Sure, one can crib about brain drain but reversing that requires better living conditions and opportunities back home, and not severing ties with the West. The trajectory that China followed has a few lessons for us. The sustained movement of ideas, capital, goods and services between China the West over forty years helped China build its own strengths. Even on the strategic technologies front, there never has been a congruence of interests, values, and complementary strengths between the West and India, as it is now. The potential for joint development of key military technology has never been higher before. These three reasons highlight, once again, the minefield that is the aatmanirbharta narrative. PolicyWTF: I Failed my Unit TestThis section looks at egregious public policies. Policies that make you go: WTF, Did that really happen? - Pranay KotasthaneThankfully, the misfired unarmed missile that landed in Pakistan only led to escalations of the Twitter-kind. How a missile (possibly one that’s capable of carrying nukes) could land in the territory of a nuclear-armed adversary despite all the checks and safety procedures in place, boggles the mind.But the policyWTF I want to focus on is the press release by Ministry of Defence that was put out a full two days after the incident:“On 9 March 2022, in the course of a routine maintenance, a technical malfunction led to the accidental firing of a missile.The Government of India has taken a serious view and ordered a high-level Court of Enquiry.It is learnt that the missile landed in an area of Pakistan. While the incident is deeply regrettable, it is also a matter of relief that there has been no loss of life due to the accident.”That’s it. Not only did the message come after Pakistan had gone to town, it also has a “I failed my exam but It’s okay as it was just a unit test” feel to it. Unsurprisingly, Pakistan is now trying to internationalise the issue. This grave error deserved an unreserved apology to the people and government of Pakistan. It should have mentioned the steps the government has initiated to reassure not just Pakistan, but all important international stakeholders. Hopefully, this happens soon; it’s not too late.Advertisement: At Takshashila Institution, there are quite a few positions open across policy research, education, programme management, and outreach functions. If you are interested, or know someone who might be interested, all requirements are posted here.India Policy Watch #3: Mastering Diaspora EvacuationInsights on burning policy issues in India — Pranay KotasthaneIndian officials and diplomats are doing a commendable job in extricating Indians from conflict areas inside Ukraine. An Indian Express report gives an indication of what it takes for evacuation from conflict areas such as Sumy:The PM's one-to-one calls to the presidents of Ukraine and Russia apparently gave a green signal for the evacuation, after both of them told the PM that they did not have a problem with safe passage.This led to instructions to Indian officials in Kyiv and Moscow for creating a humanitarian corridor.External Affairs Minister, the Defence Ministry, and the two Indian ambassadors were also involved in activating local contacts. Apparently, the Red Cross in Geneva also helped in making arrangements.In Sumy, Indian officials and local embassy staff were stationed. Their local contacts were critical in getting the buses to Sumy. Since drivers couldn’t be found, the vehicles were driven by Ukrainian army personnel. Apparently, some private cars were also used.Local contacts also helped in arranging fuel and other logistics. Finally, 12 buses reached a point in Sumy, picked up Indians from a nearby hostel. The buses took the students to central Ukraine. They took the train to reach the western border of Ukraine, from where they entered Poland. Thereafter, aircraft of IndiGo, Indian Air Force, and Air India were used to bring them home.The LessonThe events described above give an indication of the kinds of challenges and capacity required for evacuations. While the efforts of Indian officers is commendable, the above narration also indicates the absence of a well laid out protocol for evacuating Indian citizens. Given India's large and increasing diaspora, and the world disorder we find ourselves in, the need for an evacuation from conflict zones is likely to increase. India needs to be better prepared.RecommendationsA Takshashila Institution 2016 Policy Brief Capacity Analysis for Evacuation of Indian Diaspora (written by my former colleague Guru Aiyar) had studied the capacity required for quick evacuation in detail. The study proposed a 'whole of government' approach to diaspora evacuation, which includes on-ground execution mechanisms such as:Creation of an Overseas Crisis Management Group(OCMG) under the NSA which will be responsible for synchronisation and control of evacuation operations at the apex level. It will coordinate with the military, bureaucracy, civil aviation, railways, and diplomatic missions.The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) and the OCMG must have databases of logistics and transportation companies at foreign locations for ready use by Indian Missions abroad.Diplomatic push to set up overseas Overseas Coordination Points (OCPs) - airfields, ports, bus assembly areas, advanced landing grounds (ALGs) identified in advance.Maintain good diplomatic relations with countries where Overseas Coordination Points (OCPs) have been set up. For example, Djibouti becomes very important in West Asia for diaspora security.Wet lease of commercial ships & aircraft from friendly countries.For return to India, it is much cheaper to utilise civil carriers compared to Air Force or Air India.Include emergency clause in carrier licensing with commercial airlines and shipping companies to ensure: availability of aircraft with crew during emergencies, a compensation structure, and an Emergency Coordinator from all transport companies, airlines, shipping and railways with a lateral reporting channel to the OCMG.Going AheadWith Air India no longer a government company, it would be good for the government to include an emergency clause in carrier licensing now for all the private players. More importantly, India's diaspora evacuation must be better planned and executed instead of relying on the brilliance of individual officers in conflict situations where a lot of variables are not in control. Read MoreCapacity Analysis for Evacuation of Indian Diaspora, Takshashila Policy Brief by Guru Aiyar, August 2016Challenges for Indian Diaspora Evacuation, Takshashila Discussion SlideDoc, Guru Aiyar and Nitin PaiHomeWorkReading and listening recommendations on public policy matters[Article] If there’s one article you want to read on the pension tension that prompted Rajasthan and Chattisgarh governments to announce a roll back of the pension reform, read Rajiv Mehrishi and Renuka Sane.[Note] A compilation of analyses on India-Russia relations.[Note] A compilation of studies and articles in search of answers to one question: Why have Feminist Political Parties not been electorally successful?[Podcast] In the next Puliyabaazi, Avani Kapur discusses public finance and fiscal decentralisation in India. Do listen. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit publicpolicy.substack.com
Historians write about the lives of others -- but what about their own journeys? Ramachandra Guha joins Amit Varma in episode 266 of The Seen and the Unseen to reflect on his notion of home, how he got from there to here, and the strange dreams that sometimes come. Also check out: 1. Rebels Against the Raj -- Ramachandra Guha. 2. Savaging the Civilized -- Ramachandra Guha. 3. A Functioning Anarchy?: Essays for Ramachandra Guha -- Nandini Sundar and Srinath Raghavan. 4. Ramachandra Guha on Amazon. 5. A Cricket Tragic Celebrates the Game -- Episode 201 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ram Guha). 6. Taking Stock of Our Republic -- Episode 157 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ram Guha). 7. Understanding Gandhi. Part 1: Mohandas -- Episode 104 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ram Guha). 8. Understanding Gandhi. Part 2: Mahatma -- Episode 105 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ram Guha). 9. Amitava Kumar Finds the Breath of Life -- Episode 265 of The Seen and the Unseen. 10. Aadha Gaon -- Rahi Masoom Raza. 11. Jamuna Kinare Mera Gaon -- Kumar Gandharva. 12. What Have We Done With Our Independence? -- Episode 186 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Pratap Bhanu Mehta). 13. A Fish in the Water -- Mario Vargas Llosa. 14. Subaltern and Bhadralok Studies -- Ramachandra Guha. 15. MN Srinivas on Amazon. 16. Manu Pillai on Amazon. 17. Episodes of The Seen and the Unseen with Manu Pillai: 1, 2, 3, 4. 18. Sanjay Subrahmanyam on Amazon. 19. The Gun, the Ship and the Pen: Warfare, Constitutions and the Making of the Modern World -- Linda Colley. 20. Linda Colley on Amazon. 21. Upinder Singh and Nayanjot Lahiri on Amazon. 22. Sturgeon's Law. 23. David Gilmour on Amazon. 24. The Autobiography of Charles Darwin -- Charles Darwin. 25. Of Gifted Voice: The Life and Art of MS Subbulakshmi -- Keshav Desiraju. 26. Finding The Raga: An Improvisation on Indian Music -- Amit Chaudhuri. 27. Symphony No.3, Op.36 — Henryk Gorecki. 28. Mallikarjun Mansur, Bhimsen Joshi, Kumar Gandharva, Kishori Amonkar, Basavraj Rajguru, Sharafat Hussain Khan, DV Paluskar, Faiyaz Khan, Ali Akbar Khan, Ravi Shankar, Nikhil Banerjee, Bismillah Khan, Vilayat Khan, Buddhadev Das Gupta, Arvind Parikh, Ashwini Bhide-Deshpande, Veena Sahasrabuddhe, Rashid Khan, Venkatesh Kumar and Priya Purushothaman on YouTube. 29. Raju Asokan and Subrata Chowdhury on YouTube. 30. Veena Doreswamy Iyengar and Ustad Ali Akbar Khan in Jugalbandi, 1962-62. 31. Hamsadhvani -- Bade Ghulam Ali Khan, 1950s in Bangalore. 32. Dhano Dhanne -- Jaya Varma and the Chandigarh Choir. 33. The Nurture Assumption: Why Children Turn Out the Way They Do -- Judith Rich Harris. 34. The Intellectual Foundations of Hindutva -- Episode 115 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Aakar Patel). 35. In Absentia: Where are India's conservative intellectuals? -- Ramachandra Guha. 36. The Gita Press and Hindu Nationalism -- Episode 139 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Akshaya Mukul). 37. Religion and Ideology in Indian Society -- Episode 124 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Suyash Rai). 38. Political Ideology in India -- Episode 131 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Rahul Verma). 39. Sara Rai Inhales Literature -- Episode 255 of The Seen and the Unseen. 40. The Chipko Movement -- Shekhar Pathak. 41. DR Nagaraj, Meenakshi Mukherjee, Sujit Mukherjee, Tridip Suhrud, Gopalkrishna Gandhi, Girish Karnad and Mahasweta Devi on Amazon. 42. Marxvaad aur Ram Rajya -- Karpatri Maharaj. 43. The Rise and Fall of the Bilingual Intellectual -- Ramachandra Guha. 44. Yuganta -- Irawati Karve. 45. Arvind Krishna Mehrotra on Amazon. 46. Reconcling the Nagas -- Ramachandra Guha. 47. The State of Our Farmers -- Episode 86 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Gunvant Patil). 48. KT Achaya on Amazon. 49. Shiv Visvanathan on Amazon. 50. Manthan -- Shyam Benegal. 51. Science as a Vocation -- Max Weber. 52. AA Thomson on Wikipedia. 53. Ernest Hemingway, W Somerset Maugham, Penelope Fitzgerald, Barbara Pym and Leo Tolstoy on Amazon. 54. The Kingdom of God Is Within You -- Leo Tolstoy. 55. Anna Karenina -- Leo Tolstoy. 56. War and Peace -- Leo Tolstoy. 57. Father Sergius -- Leo Tolstoy (translated by Aylmer and Louise Maude). 58. Middlemarch -- George Eliot. 59. Limonov -- Emmanuel Carrère. 60. The Netanyahus -- Joshua Cohen. 61. The Gate of Angels -- Penelope Fitzgerald. 62. The Knox Brothers -- Penelope Fitzgerald. 63. Nicholas Boyle on Amazon. 64. Gandhi's Formative Years -- Ramachandra Guha's essay that mentions Boyle's Laws of Biography. 65. Jawaharlal Nehru: A Biography -- Sarvepalli Gopal. 66. The Wire -- David Simon etc. 67. The Second Coming -- William Butler Yeats. 68. Ramachandra Guha interviewed by Madhu Trehan. 69. Gita Press and the Making of Hindu India -- Akshaya Mukul. 70. Granville Austin on Amazon. 71. The Citizenship Battles -- Episode 152 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Srinath Raghavan). 72. The Multiple Tragedies of the Kashmiri Pandit -- Ramachandra Guha. Check out Amit's online course, The Art of Clear Writing. And subscribe to The India Uncut Newsletter. It's free!
You may think you have India figured out -- but do you? Rukmini S joins Amit Varma in episode 261 of The Seen and the Unseen to speak about the many layers of India she has uncovered by looking closely at data, and the stories that lie beneath. Also check out: 1. Whole Numbers and Half Truths -- Rukmini S. 2. The Importance of Data Journalism -- Episode 196 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Rukmini S). 3. The Loneliness of the Indian Woman -- Episode 259 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Shrayana Bhattacharya). 4. The White Album -- Joan Didion. 5. The world's most expensive coffee, made from poop of civet cat, is made in India -- Hindustan Times news report. 6. A Life in Indian Politics -- Episode 149 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Jayaprakash Narayan). 7. What Have We Done With Our Independence? -- Episode 186 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Pratap Bhanu Mehta). 8. The Business of Books -- Episode 150 of The Seen and the Unseen (w VK Karthika). 9. Munni Badnaam Hui. 10. Beautiful Thing -- Sonia Faleiro. 11. The Good Girls -- Sonia Faleiro. 12. Two Girls Hanging From a Tree -- Episode 209 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Sonia Faleiro). 13. Daily Rituals -- Mason Currey. 14. Daily Rituals: Women at Work -- Mason Currey. 15. Pramit Bhattacharya Believes in Just One Ism -- Episode 256 of The Seen and the Unseen. 16. Food and Nutrition in India: Facts and Interpretations -- Angus Deaton and Jean Dreze. 17. The Three Languages of Politics -- Arnold Kling. 18. Modeling Covid-19 -- Episode 224 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Gautam Menon). 19. The Practice of Medicine -- Episode 229 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Lancelot Pinto). 20. Sample SSR conspiracy theory: He's alive! 21. The Case Against Sugar — Gary Taubes. 22. The Big Fat Surprise — Nina Teicholz. 23. The Obesity Code — Jason Fung. 24. Episodes of The Seen and the Unseen on the creator ecosystem with Roshan Abbas, Varun Duggirala, Neelesh Misra, Snehal Pradhan, Chuck Gopal and Nishant Jain. 25. Steven Van Zandt: Springsteen, the death of rock and Van Morrison on Covid — Richard Purden. 26. Ravish Kumar's Instagram post on Rukmini's book. 27. Dataclysm: Who We Are (When We Think No One's Looking) -- Christian Rudder. 28. Everybody Lies -- Seth Stephens-Davidowitz. 29. The Truth About Ourselves -- Amit Varma. 30. Posts by Amit Varma on Mahindra Watsa: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9. 31. The Kavita Krishnan Files -- Episode 228 of The Seen and the Unseen. 32. One Bad Law Goes, but Women Remain Second-Class Citizens -- Amit Varma. 33. The papers on declining labour force participation of Indian women by Ashwini Deshpande and Sonalde Desai. 34. Amit Varma's provocative tweet on Urdu poetry. 35. If It's Monday It Must Be Madurai -- Srinath Perur. 36. Ghachar Ghochar -- Vivek Shanbhag (translated by Srinath Perur). 37. Girl No.166: Will this retired cop ever stop looking for Pooja? -- Smita Nair. 38. Private Truths, Public Lies — Timur Kuran. 39. Group Polarization on Wikipedia. 40. Where Anna Hazare Gets It Wrong -- Amit Varma. 41. Superforecasting -- Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner. 42. Think Again -- Adam Grant. 43. Ideology and Identity — Pradeep K Chhibber and Rahul Verma. 44. Political Ideology in India -- Episode 131 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Rahul Verma). 45. Population Is Not a Problem, but Our Greatest Strength -- Amit Varma. 46. The Ultimate Resource -- Julian Simon. 47. The Simon-Ehrlich Wager. 48. India Moving — Chinmay Tumbe. 49. India = Migration -- Episode 128 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Chinmay Tumbe). 50. Unemployment rate at four-decade high of 6.1% in 2017-18: NSSO survey -- Somesh Jha. 51. Consumer spend sees first fall in 4 decades on weak rural demand: NSO data -- Somesh Jha. 52. Raag Darbari (Hindi) (English) — Shrilal Shukla. 53. The Competent Authority -- Shovon Chowdhury. 54. Despite the State -- M Rajshekhar. 55. Ponniyin Selvan (Tamil) (English) (English audio) -- Kalki R Krishnamurthy. This episode is sponsored by CTQ Compounds. Check out The Daily Reader and FutureStack. Use the code UNSEEN for Rs 2500 off. Check out Amit's online courses, The Art of Clear Writing and The Art of Podcasting. And subscribe to The India Uncut Newsletter. It's free!
A democracy is not just about voting, The rules of the game have to protect individuals, and institutions have to keep the government accountable. MR Madhavan joins Amit Varma in episode 253 of The Seen and the Unseen to discuss his efforts at empowering MPs and MLAs with knowledge -- and why we should not lose hope in our nation. Also check out: 1. PRS Legislative Research. 2. When You Could Only Buy Two Litres of Milk -- MR Madhavan. 3. The Functioning of the Indian Parliament -- MR Madhavan. 4. Dilli Door Nahin: Engaging With the Policy Process -- MR Madhavan. 5. Ulysses and Dubliners -- James Joyce. 6. Fixing Indian Education -- Episode 185 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Karthik Muralidharan). 7. Education in India -- Episode 77 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Amit Chandra). 8. Every Act of Government Is an Act of Violence -- Amit Varma. 9. Taxes Should Be Used for Governance, Not Politics -- Amit Varma. 10. Battles Half Won: India's Improbable Democracy -- Ashutosh Varshney. 11. A Life in Indian Politics -- Episode 149 of The Seen and the Unseen (w JP Narayan). 12. A People's Constitution -- Rohit De. 13. The First Assault on Our Constitution -- Episode 194 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Tripurdaman Singh). 14. The Right to Property -- Episode 26 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Shruti Rajagopalan). 15. The Federalist Papers -- Alexander Hamilton, John Jay and James Madison. 16. The Oxford Handbook of the Indian Constitution -- Sujit Choudhry, Madhav Khosla and Pratap Bhanu Mehta. 17. The Ideas of Our Constitution -- Episode 164 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Madhav Khosla). 18. India's Founding Moment — Madhav Khosla. 19. India's Greatest Civil Servant -- Episode 167 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Narayani Basu). 20. The Anti-Defection Law -- Episode 13 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Barun Mitra). 21. Speech to the Electors of Bristol -- Edmund Burke. 22. A Cricket Tragic Celebrates the Game -- Episode 201 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ramachandra Guha). 23. Bindra's Wishlist -- Amit Varma. 24. The Business of Winning Elections -- Episode 247 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Shivam Shankar Singh). 25. Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Don't Know -- Adam Grant. 26. The Gray Man -- Mark Greaney. 27. PG Wodehouse on Amazon. 28. The Three-Body Problem -- Cixin Liu. 29. Project Hail Mary -- Andy Weir. 30. A Gentleman in Moscow -- Amor Towles. 31. The Lincoln Highway -- Amor Towles. 32. The Paper Menagerie -- Ken Liu. This episode is sponsored by Intel. This episode is co-sponsored by CTQ Compounds. Check out The Daily Reader, FutureStack and The Social Capital Compound. Use the code UNSEEN for Rs 2500 off. Please subscribe to The India Uncut Newsletter. It's free! And check out Amit's online course, The Art of Clear Writing.
The Congress Party once dominated Indian politics. Today, it's on the outside looking in. Rahul Verma joins Amit Varma in episode 248 of The Seen and the Unseen to discuss the complex social and political factors behind this massive decline. Also check out: 1. Political Ideology in India -- Episode 131 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Rahul Verma). 2. Ideology and Identity: The Changing Party Systems of India -- Pradeep K Chhibber and Rahul Verma. 3. Taking Stock of Our Republic -- Episode 157 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ramachandra Guha). 4. The Gita Press and Hindu Nationalism -- Episode 139 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Akshaya Mukul). 5. Religion and Ideology in Indian Society — Episode 124 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Suyash Rai). 6. The BJP Before Modi -- Episode 202 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Vinay Sitapati). 7. The BJP's Magic Formula — Episode 45 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Prashant Jha). 8. The First Assault on Our Constitution — Episode 194 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Tripurdaman Singh). 9. Who Broke Our Republic? — Episode 163 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Kapil Komireddi). 10. The Life and Times of Vir Sanghvi -- Episode 236 of The Seen and the Unseen. 11. The Emergency of 1975 -- Episode 103 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Gyan Prakash). 12. India's Lost Decade -- Episode 116 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Puja Mehra). 13. The Business of Winning Elections -- Episode 247 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Shivam Shankar Singh). 14. The Importance of the 1991 Reforms -- Episode 237 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Shruti Rajagopalan and Ajay Shah). 15. The Baptist, the Bootlegger and the Dead Man Walking -- Amit Varma. 16. Caste in Indian Politics -- Rajni Kothari. 17. Politics In India -- Rajni Kothari. 18. Lessons from an Ankhon Dekhi Prime Minister -- Amit Varma. 19. The Burden of Democracy -- Pratap Bhanu Mehta. 20. Myron Weiner, Saadat Hasan Manto, Shivani and Harishankar Parsai on Amazon. 21. Murdahiya -- Dr Tulsiram. 22. Raag Darbari (Hindi) (English) -- Shrilal Shukla. 23. Dynastic parties: Organization, finance and impact -- Pradeep Chhibber. 24. 24 Akbar Road -- Rashid Kidwai. 25. Congress after Indira: Policy, Power, Political Change -- Zoya Hasan. 26. The future of the Congress party -- A Conversation between Yamini Aiyar, Zoya Hasan and Rahul Verma. 27. Why big companies squander brilliant ideas -- Tim Harford. 28. A Game Theory Problem: Who Will Bell The Congress Cat? -- Amit Varma. 29. Mahua Moitra interviewed by Barkha Dutt. 30. Democracy without Associations -- Pradeep K Chibber. 31. Are You Anchored to the Past? -- Amit Varma. This episode is sponsored by Intel. Please subscribe to The India Uncut Newsletter. It's free! And check out Amit's online course, The Art of Clear Writing.
In this episode, Shruti speaks with Dr. Pratap Bhanu Mehta about Adam Smith's “The Theory of Moral Sentiments,” spectatorship and imagination, self-interest, federalism, the Scottish Enlightenment as applied to Indian politics and much more. Mehta is the Laurence Rockefeller Professor for Distinguished Teaching at Princeton University. He is also a contributing editor and columnist at the Indian Express and former president and chief executive of the Center for Policy Research, New Delhi. He has written extensively on intellectual history, constitutional law and theory, political theory, India's social transformation and world affairs. He is the recipient of the Infosys Prize, the Adiseshiah Prize and the Amartya Sen Prize. Follow Shruti on Twitter: https://twitter.com/srajagopalan Follow Pratap on Twitter: https://twitter.com/pbmehta Learn more about The 1991 Project: https://the1991project.com For a full transcript of this conversation with helpful links, visit DiscourseMagazine.com.
A version of this essay was published by swarajaya.com at https://swarajyamag.com/ideas/a-tale-of-two-hacks-pegasus-and-chinas-microsoft-exchange-penetrationIn the recent past, we have seen a lot of news stories. Massive riots in South Africa and Cuba. The uncertainty in Afghanistan. Floods in Germany and China. Surging Wuhan virus cases in hitherto relatively unscathed Southeast Asia. A ‘border clash’ between Assam and Mizoram. Bezos one-ups Branson in the space race. China was accused of large-scale hacking of Microsoft Exchange a few months ago.So there are plenty of real, meaty stories to report on.Yet the Indian media was full of stories about something dubious: the alleged Pegasus hacking expose. There are two problems with it. One: as a narrative, it makes no sense; in fact, the meta-narrative is far more interesting. Two: It is an outstanding example of how gaslighting works on Indians (but not on Chinese).The meta-narrative about PegasusThere is a plethora of manufactured news stories about India. Everything from the Rafale accusations, rounds 1, 2 and 3, including fake news created by an Indian newspaper by judiciously cropping content; to the exaggerations about the Citizenship Amendment Act. Along with the constant low-level insurrections and mild rioting, this suggests that someone is pursuing an agenda.The most obvious conclusion is that a time-honored tactic is in play: throw a whole lot of dirt, and hope some of it sticks. So far, almost nothing they have tried has worked, but that is not going to stop them. They will keep coming. The recent Rafale allegations were warmed-over allegations that an NGO named Sherpa and some dicey website had already made. The money trail as to who funds Sherpa and friends is quite instructive. (Hint: some white billionaires).The Pegasus allegation is also not new: it is recycled from before, as seen in these screenshots from 2019 and 2020.If you follow the trail on the ‘AdivasiLivesMatters’ post, you end up with one of their prime motivations: the whitewashing of the Bhima Koregaon Urban Naxals who have been hauled up for sedition and fomenting separatism. The breast-beating over one of them, Stanislaus Lourdusamy, Society of Jesus, happened just a week or so ago.Here is more from 2020. Aha, 121 Indians then, only 33 now. Odd, isn’t it?Incidentally, the very same Congress supporters and MPs who are on the warpath now were silent a few years ago when Manmohan Singh declared that “phone tapping is the right of the government”. Which, to be candid, is true. All governments need to spy on their people: even the sainted Ashoka had a huge surveillance operation. Did we hear anybody shriek “treason” when Manmohan said this? Apparently not. In the US, there is widespread surveillance by the government. Under the sainted Obama in 2010, they even tapped the phone of their most important ally, Germany’s Angela Merkel: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/germany/10407282/Barack-Obama-approved-tapping-Angela-Merkels-phone-3-years-ago.htmlThe US left are good at narratives. There is the salutary example of what happened to the Trump administration in 2020. It appears there was a concerted effort by various vested interests to gaslight the US electorate, leading to the (somewhat violent) overthrow of the incumbent. I am not making this up: TIME magazine billed it as the “inside story of the conspiracy to save democracy” https://time.com/5936036/secret-2020-election-campaign/ . For a dissenting opinion, please read the startling substack below that tells the story that has been suppressed. If you know anything about computer security, it is evident that the purported story about Pegasus is not supported by the technical facts. Much has been written about it, so I shall not belabor the point. But the fact is that the narrative has changed from “50,000 phones hacked” to “50,000 phones may have been hacked” to “the 50,000 phone list is an indicative list of phones that someone might potentially want to hack” suggests that this is like “Aryan Invasion” becoming “Aryan Migration” and then “Aryan Tourist™” Theory. Or how “Kerala has slayed Corona” became “Kerala has 50% of Corona cases in India”. In Trump’s case it was “The Steele Dossier documents how Russian prostitutes peed on Trump” to “There is no evidence that the Russia narrative has any basis according to the special prosecutor”. But the narratives succeeded in misleading most everybody for a while.And who are the alleged hack-ees in India? To be honest, they don’t appear particularly interesting, nor likely to be the bearers of state secrets. It’s quite a weak list. In general, these are not people any self-respecting government would want to snoop on. There are many other People of Interest in the country that a spy agency would want to phone-tap.The meta-narrative, in fact, is far more interesting than the narrative. Just look at this headline story in The Guardian. Even though several other countries were alleged to have used Pegasus, that was sleight-of-hand and intended to obfuscate: the clear target is Modi. The ecosystem was already primed, and this dates back to 2019 as above. Here is a lurid story from a known Modi-baiter. It is not clear how he’s an ‘expert’ on hacking or security.Similarly, Arundhati Susan Roy, a woman for all causes, launched into typical hyperbole.And inevitably, the prolix Pratap Bhanu Mehta chimed in, too. Clearly, there was a toolkit, and the memos had gone out to rally the troops to all sing from the same hymn-book.The American wing of the ecosystem also swung into action. Within 24 hours, 30 groups organized a protest against India, Hindus, and Modi. Notably, this included rabid Christian fundamentalists like this person below, various Muslim groups like CAIR, and radical leftists. Obviously, there was a plan, and surely a toolkit for the Americans as well.The sum and substance of all this is that there is a concerted effort to paint India as a violator of freedom of speech, fascist, dictatorial, etc etc etc. All the usual suspects are involved. Diligent people who dug into the antecedents of various groups involved and followed the money trail arrived at the conclusion that there are a few sinister individuals and organizations behind this. The presumed goal: regime-change and preferably balkanization of India. No surprise, this.Even though this particular effort was an abject failure -- nobody in India gave a damn, and within a day it had disappeared even from the NYTimes (so it is possible to embarrass Deep State bastions!) -- this is not the end of it. The ecosystem will, like Robert Bruce, try, try and try again. Two reasons: one is to give the Nehru dynasty scion some excuse to strut about; two is to prevent Parliament from conducting business, thus negating the BJP’s majority.The reaction to Chinese hacking: softly, softlySimultaneously, there was the case of the Microsoft Exchange hack from earlier in the year, which affected some 30,000 businesses. As this magazine, a known cheerleader for the Deep State, points out, the US, its Five Eyes Anglo allies (the UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand), Japan, and the EU got together, and gave China a delicate slap on the wrist. The fact that all of them “admonished” China together means that they would not be able to agree on anything to “punish” China other than the most anodyne and soothing actions. There is ample evidence of Chinese mischief. Apart from large-scale hacking (Obama negotiated what was billed as a ceasefire, but apparently it wasn’t), it has been stealthily acquiring genetic data about millions of pregnant women from all over the world: all the better to create targeted biological weapons. That’s not the end of it: China is even stealing data from its client states like Cambodia.Despite all this, there is extreme reluctance to call out China’s bad behavior. We are familiar with the year-long saga of how the origins of the Wuhan virus have been obscured by the Chinese, with the apparent active collaboration of US officials such as Anthony Fauci and intermediaries such as Peter Daszak. Yet, just this week comes the news that the WHO is, once again, well, helpless.One might ask why. Why is the all-powerful West unwilling or unable to tackle cyber-mischief from China, when the evidence is all over the place? And why are they so quick to pounce on India when there is vanishingly small evidence of wrong-doing here?There are several answers, and none of them is particularly appealing. The first is that the West, and especially the US, is so entangled with China that despite all the huffing and puffing by Biden, no decoupling is going to happen. The second is that China has frightened the US with its wolf-warrior diplomacy that we saw in Alaska and more recently just this week, where they intimidate the US side by listing all the unsavory things they do, including the dubious elections, racism, and so on; and the US really has no defense against this onslaught.The third is that India is far easier to bully because we are easily gaslighted and shamed by Anglosphere narratives, we do not retaliate, and we are infiltrated by fifth columnists. India could easily have sent a message by putting the screws on Amazon, as Jeff Bezos also owns the Washington Post, which was active in the Pegasus fairy tale. It could have, as I have been saying ad nauseam, sued or defenestrated the pompous white migrant workers from The Economist, NYTimes, FT, BBC, WaPo, NPR and all the other hostile media, as Lee Kwan Yew used to do with such notable effect. Until India applies some pain to the perpetrators of fraud and their paymasters, this sort of thing will continue. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit rajeevsrinivasan.substack.com
What is the role of religion and caste in Indians' lives? How do we think about our identity as Indians? What do our choices about how we worship, what we eat, and what we wear say about our identity? Pew Research Center conducted face-to-face interviews with 29,999 Indians across India to obtain answers to these questions and more.In this episode, Neha Sahgal and Jonathan Evans from the Pew Research Center, and authors of the report “Religion in India: Tolerance and Segregation” join Mihir Mahajan and Apurva Kumar to talk about their findings and help identify metaphors that describe contemporary India.About the speakers: Neha Sahgal is associate director of research at Pew Research Center, specializing in international polling on religion. Sahgal is involved in all aspects of survey research, including designing the questionnaire, monitoring fieldwork, evaluating data quality, and analysing results. Jonathan Evans is a research associate at Pew Research Center, where he contributes to international polling projects focused on religion and national identity.Further readings:1. "Key findings about religion in India" by Jonathan Evans and Neha Sehgal2. Full report - "Religion in India: Tolerance and Segregation"3. Survey questionnaire4. Pratap Bhanu Mehta's article on the survey4. Pratap Bhanu Mehta's article on the surveyIf these All Things Policy conversations interest you, consider applying for Takshashila's courses. Admissions are now open and the application deadline for our upcoming cohort is 28th August 2021.Find out about our courses over here - https://bit.ly/ATP-GCPPFollow Neha Sehgal on Twitter - https://twitter.com/SahgalN?s=20Follow Mihir Mahajan on Twitter - https://twitter.com/mihirmahajan?s=20 Follow Apurva Kumar on Twitter - https://twitter.com/apurva_kr?s=20You can listen to this show and other awesome shows on the IVM Podcasts app on Android: https://ivm.today/android or iOS: https://ivm.today/ios, or any other podcast app
While excellent newsletters on specific themes within public policy already exist, this thought letter is about frameworks, mental models, and key ideas that will hopefully help you think about any public policy problem in imaginative ways.Audio narration by Ad-Auris. India Policy Watch #1: Jabki Dimaag Khaali Hai (While The Mind Is Empty) Insights on burning policy issues in India- RSJThe sound and the fury surrounding all that’s happening in India now is quite maddening. Any kind of meaningful analysis risks drowning in it. In any case, there’s no analysis possible any more in India. There are only positions. We have fallen in love with the culture of intellectual nihilism. All arguments start with a bad faith assumption. And before you end it, you are tagged with toxic monikers and a litany of half-truths in the garb of whatboutery. And they bookend any discussion between two ‘argumentative’ Indians these days. We cannot say we didn’t see it coming. It is easy to cast democracy into a vessel that channels the passions of the majority. You can ride those passions to the levers of power. But it is another thing to govern and meet the aspirations of the demos. The easy way then to cover for failures is to continue fighting some mythical ancient regime or entrenched enemies who are undermining your efforts. This is imagined victimhood. When this becomes a political, social and cultural defence to any challenge, intellectual nihilism follows. Facts don’t matter then. Only faith does.We are in a tight spot today. To come out of it requires leadership, farsighted policymaking capabilities and a consensus on the path to nation building almost at par with the task we had on hands right after independence. This isn’t easy even with the best of intentions and capabilities at your disposal. Instead, I fear we have real constraints in thinking our way clearly through this. Acknowledging The ProblemThe economy wasn’t in a great shape going into the pandemic in April 2020. The twin balance sheet problem and the shock of demonetisation meant a modest 4-5 percent growth was beginning to look the best we could do. The national lockdown and the impact of the first wave has meant we will end up with about an eight percent decline in GDP in FY20-21. The general consensus within the government early this year was India had seen off the pandemic and a V-shaped recovery is well on its way. This second wave has set us back again. So, where does that leave us on the economy? There are a few factors to consider here:Unlike wave 1, this time the impact has been felt more directly by the consuming class. This is evident from conversations with friends and colleagues, social media posts and the case counts. People have been scarred and sentiments have taken a hit. More importantly, people will wait to get vaccinated before lowering their guards. The lessons of complacency seem to have been learnt. The talk of wave 3 and its likely impact on kids have only queered the pitch. Vaccination to about 50 percent of people looks unlikely before the end of 2021. This would mean when the wave 2 subsides, there won’t be a quick bounce back in terms of increased mobility and consumption spends. There will only be a gradual return to any kind of normalcy. Unlike last wave, this wave has impacted the hinterland. The extent of the impact is difficult to ascertain but the ground reporting from rural UP and Bihar has been heartbreaking. Rural supply chains have been disrupted and the expectation that rural economy will hold out like last year are misplaced.Much of the heavy lifting last year to support the economy was done by the RBI through monetary policy. There’s a limit to that and it seems we have reached the end of it. The fiscal room available to the government is quite limited. It is worse than last year. The fiscal deficit is the highest it has been in a long time. Yet, the government will have to come out with some kind of a stimulus soon. People are hurting. But where will the money for stimulus come from? Expect more headline management like the Rs. 20 lac crores Aatmanirbhar Bharat package announced last year.Exports could be a silver lining considering most of the developed world will be back on growth path by next quarter. The challenge is how well are our businesses (especially SMEs) positioned right now to take advantage of it. It is difficult to be an export powerhouse while simultaneously dealing with an unprecedented health crisis impacting the workforce. The consensus growth projections for FY21-22 have already been lowered from 11.5 percent to 9-9.5 percent. My fear is this will slide down to 7-7.5 percent range by the time we have seen through wave 2. Since this wave is unique to India in terms of spread and impact, our economic performance, deficit and the future prospects will be an outlier compared to most of the world in FY22. We will have to keep an eye on the sovereign rating given our circumstances. There’s a danger lurking there. Given these, it is evident we will need to bring together our best minds across government, administration and industry to navigate these waters. But that will require to acknowledge we got things wrong to reach here. This isn’t likely going by precedence. It will also be interesting to see how Indian industry and capital responds to this. Of course, the public stance, like always, will be cheerleading the dispensation. But it is no secret that private capital investment has been stagnant for most of last decade. Indian capital doesn’t put its money where its mouth is. It is far too clever for that. As 4-6 percent growth (if that) becomes the accepted norm for this decade, it is likely that Indian industry and the wealthy will try and conserve what they have instead of taking risks. There are other second order social implications that might arise out of another ‘lost decade’ of tepid growth that Indian capital will be worried about. They might continue to prefer a ‘strong leader’ given these concerns. It is also clear now that any recovery will be K-shaped to begin with. The formal, organised and larger players will consolidate their gains and grow at the expense of the informal and smaller players. This trend has been seen over the past 12 months. The stock market, divorced from the real economy, already knows it and it is reflected in the performance of the benchmark indices that represent 30-50 top companies. This structural shift to an oligopoly in most sectors is evident. This will allow the state to control capital more easily as markets turn less free. In any case, the benefits of aligning to the political dispensation are already evident in the list of richest Asians. So, the industry will be more than willing to be subservient. These aren’t the best of conditions for releasing the animal spirits of enterprise. The Absent Media And OppositionIt isn’t difficult to foresee the challenges outlined here and to set up a policy framework to address it. There are two problems here. First, the centralised nature of governance in the current establishment precludes any acknowledgement of missteps or an honest assessment of the problems on hand. Second, the conventional outlets of holding the government to account, the opposition and the media, are mostly absent. Large sections of mainstream media are owned directly by the industry who would rather cheerlead than ask tough questions. Many in the industry and the media may even be ideologically aligned to the establishment. The opposition is fragmented with regional leaders often holding their own in the assembly elections. But any kind of national mobilisation to politically counter the party in power is not in sight. The PM continues to be popular despite the wave 2 failings. The political genius of the PM has been to dissolve the natural fragments of region, caste, or even, language, that precluded over-centralisation of power in the past. The Lok Sabha elections will continue to be presidential in nature for the foreseeable future. So, any real political opposition will need to contend with this. The other source of opposition, class, has disappeared from Indian politics for long. Students’ unions are politicised along party lines and have no independent line of thinking, trade unions have no teeth and farmers movement is splintered despite the protests we see against farm laws. The near absence of media and opposition has meant policy debates and discussions have suffered. There’s complacency and lack of rigour in policy making as has been evident in the past many years. There is no price to be paid for policy failure. And any failure is quickly papered over with some kind of narrative.The Surrender Of ElitesLastly, let’s turn to the elites. The section that often tends to have a disproportionate share of voice in the polity. The institutional elite have either been co-opted or they have thrown in the towel in the face of an overwhelmingly popular establishment. Universities, courts, bureaucracy, police and what’s referred to as civil society can no longer be counted on to be independent voices that will uphold the tradition of the institutions they serve. This isn’t a first in our history. But, remember, the last time it happened the consequences were terrible. That should, therefore, give us no solace. The other set of elites are those who have provided intellectual scaffolding to this dispensation over the years. Loosely put, this group would identify themselves ideologically as either conservatives or belonging to the right. I have articulated their grouses in earlier editions. It runs the spectrum - the resentment with a liberal constitution that was not rooted in our civilisational values, the anger at the radical act of forgetting our history that the Nehruvian elites thrust upon us in their wisdom, the overbearing state and the failures of leftist economic policies during the 60s-80s that held us back and the deracinated deep state (“Lutyens Delhi”) that apparently controlled the levers of power regardless of who was in power. In the past seven years it should have been clear to them these grouses aren’t easy to set right nor will their elimination lead to any kind of great reawakening in the masses. The intellectual articulation of a political philosophy that’s suited to the modern world while addressing these grouses isn’t clear yet. Instead, what we have on our hands are thuggish attempts at settling imaginary scores and continuing degradation of scientific temper in the hope it will usher in a modern version of our glorious past. If these intellectuals want the supposed UP model of today to be what India of tomorrow should look like, good luck with that ending well. I have been reading the great Hindi essayist, historian and scholar, Hazari Prasad Dwivedi over the past few months. Dwivedi was an intellectual powerhouse who was deeply rooted in the Indic tradition and philosophy. A great Sanskrit linguist who spent a lifetime studying the Sastras and writing beautiful expositions on them, Dwivedi should be more widely read today. His essays, their themes and his arguments, betray no trace of western enlightenment influence. He had a clear-eyed view of the richness of our heritage and its relevance in the modern age. In his anthology, Vichar Aur Vitark (Thoughts And Debates), there’s an essay titled ‘Jabki Dimaag Khaali Hai’ (“While The Mind Is Empty”) published by Sachitra Bharti in 1939, which is often quoted by Pratap Bhanu Mehta to make a specific point about our current obsession with our glorious past and the identity crisis among Hindus. As Mehta writes:This identity is constituted by a paradoxical mixture of sentiments: a sense of lack, Hinduism is not sure what makes it the identity that it is; a sense of injury, the idea that Hindus have been victims of history; a sense of superiority, Hinduism as the highest achievement of spirituality and uniquely tolerant; a sense of weakness, Hindus are unable to respond to those who attack them; a sense of uncertainty, how will this tradition make its transition to modernity without denigrating its own past; and finally, a yearning for belonging, a quest for a community that can do justice to them as Hindus. This psychic baggage can express itself in many ways, sometimes benign and creative, sometimes, malign and close minded. But these burdens cast their unmistakable shadow upon modern Hindu self-reflection, often leading to a discourse on identity that Dwivedi memorably described as one, where the ‘‘heart is full and the mind empty (dil bhara hai aur dimag khali hai).’’ The passions that have been fanned to animate the majority cannot lead to nation building in the absence of intellectual rigour and clear reasoning. The problem is once that genie of passions is out, it is impossible to put it back in the bottle. Its demand will never be sated.I will leave you with an extract from Dwivedi’s essay (my mediocre English translation follows):My translation:But when the mind is empty while the heart is brimming over, there cannot be any possibility of an engaging exposition of the Sastras. Otherwise, there isn't any reason to be anxious about a race whose writ once ran from the shores of River Vaksh in Central Asia to the end of South Asia, the imprint of whose culture transcended the Himalayas and the great oceans and whose mighty fleet once controlled the waters of the eastern seas. It is true that this mighty race is a pale shadow of itself today. The sons of Panini (the great Sanskrit grammarian from Gandhara) sell dry fruits and heeng on streets today while the descendants of Kumarjiva are involved in the basest of trades. Yet, there's a hope that there must be a semblance of that glory still running in the veins of this race. And it will show its true colour some day. But then I wonder. After all, a tree is known by the fruits it bears. The state of disrepair that the Hindu society is in today must trace its cause to that once glorious civilisation of the past. How can that tree be so glorious when its fruits we see all around today are so terrible?There was indeed an age of prosperity for this race. That is true. Those verdant streets of Ujjain, the gurgling sounds of river Shipra and the celestial music of the kinnaras still echo in the Himalayan valleys - these memories remain fresh in our minds. And amidst these riches, our eyes can clearly see the attack of the Huns and the defiant stand of the Aryans, the numerous rise and fall of empires, the thunderous roar of Vikramaditya. The glories of Magadh and Avanti were unparalleled. Its elite could wield the sword and the brush with equal felicity. They could fight fire with fire and let their hair down when they wanted. But things changed. The elite suppressed the masses; they paralysed the polity. The chasm within the society began to open up. The elites immersed themselves in the pleasures of the material world while the masses were tied down to scriptures and their orthodoxy. One took refuge in merriment while the other was often lampooned for their outdated beliefs. And the fissure in the Hindu society widened further. Over the centuries every invader used this to their advantage - Huns, Sakas, Tartars, Muslims and the British. They divided us further and they ruled. Today that Pathan dry fruit seller asked me if that beautiful house belonged to a Muslim or a Christian and could scarcely believe it could be that of a Hindu. And I wondered if the chasm continues widening everyday. But then the Sastras don't bother about such identity issues of the Hindus and I lack the courage to intellectually confront this issue any further. When the mind is empty and the heart full of passion, isn't it enough to have even mentally contended with the existential conundrum of our race. Matsyanyaaya: A Cautionary Tale on the ‘Israel Model’Big fish eating small fish = Foreign Policy in action— Pranay KotasthaneFull diplomatic ties between India and Israel were established quite late in 1992. Even so, this bilateral relationship has quickly grown into a robust and multi-dimensional partnership over the last three decades. This is a welcome development. Israel’s technological prowess finds many admirers in India. In casual conversations, this admiration often escalates into a desire for emulation — "see how they tackled terrorism, we should learn from it", or "we should also have mandatory military service, like Israel does", or "why can't India kill terrorists in Pakistan the way Israel assassinates Iranian nuclear scientists?" The latest round of Israel-Palestine conflict should, however, force uncritical admirers of the Israel model to update their Bayesian priors. A side note before I begin: what model Israel adopts is its own problem and I have neither the competence nor the inclination to challenge its approach. Every conflict today has its own set of initial conditions and a long and bloody path-dependent history. I am only interested cautioning people who seek to transpose Israel’s strategy to an Indian context. Here are my four strategic insights from the Indian perspective for those in awe of the 'Israel Model'.#1 Force alone cannot end insurgenciesEven an overwhelming superiority in force structure is insufficient for ending insurgencies. The US experience in Afghanistan and the ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict both demonstrate that insurgencies are not easy to dislodge. Neither the Iron Dome nor the ‘Mother of all Bombs’ can fully deter an insurgent force from retaliating in the future. Force can, at best, modulate terrorism but it can't end insurgencies. Ending insurgencies also requires co-opting rival elites and making compromises with insurgent factions. More the disproportional use of force, more elusive such dealmaking becomes. #2 Assassinating terrorists can be both ineffective and high-costFed on a diet of Hollywood movies, the assassination programmes of Mossad and Shin Bet are admired by many people in India. Every terrorist attack in India raises one question: if Israel can kill Iranian nuclear scientists, why can’t India kill the likes of Hafiz Saeed? This romanticisation of an extensive assassination programme misses the fact that such operations have often been strategically ineffective. Praveen Swami’s take in MoneyControl on Israel’s assassination programme highlights this point well:“From 1971, when a new Palestinian resistance emerged in the West Bank and Gaza, both targeted assassination and sometimes-indiscriminate civilian killing were deployed on a growing scale. Forty-man covert assassination squads, code-named Rimon, or Pomegranate received target lists from Israel’s internal intelligence service, Shin Bet for execution.The killings formed the backdrop to the rise of terrorism, culminating in the savage massacre of Israeli Olympic athletes in Munich in 1972. Mossad responded by unleashing Operation Wrath of God—arguably the best known of all its efforts—which, over the course of twenty years, used covert teams to target their alleged killers across Europe and the Middle-East.Leaving ethics aside, the gains from Israel’s tactics are controversial: Rimon’s killings didn’t deter the outbreak of the First Intifada in 1987; indeed, it could be argued to have radicalised an entire generation. Even leadership-decapitation operations, like the 1988 assassination of Palestine Liberation Organisation second-in-command Khalil al-Wazir, did little to change the course of history. Arguably, Israel’s anti-PLO operations only served to open the way for more dangerous Islamist groups.”Another unintended and yet anticipated consequence of such an approach is the potential of domestic spillover. If a State repeatedly uses assassination against State enemies, how long before it becomes an acceptable method against domestic anti-national ‘enemies’ ?A key cognitive dissonance is at the centre of democratic statecraft — in the amoral world of international relations, the grammar of power applies while in a liberal domestic realm, rule of law explicitly restrains the primacy of power. This delicate balance is tougher to achieve in a State with an extensive assassination programme. A secondary consequence is that conflicting parties become incapable of compromise and dialogue and resort to acts that further aggravate the situation.#3 People matter more than territoryThe Israel-Palestine conflict is a visceral conflict over a piece of land. Such is its history and deep-seated animosity that today, even localised fights over pieces of neighbourhood land have the potential to trigger a full-scale arms exchange. The lesson for India is that the desire for territorial integrity should not override the primary goal of peace and prosperity for all Indians. Take the instance of India’s land border with Bangladesh. In the 2015 Land Boundary Agreement, India gave away more land than it got back from Bangladesh. In a strict sense, India’s territorial integrity was violated. And yet, it was a prudent decision because, among other things, it put an end to the abomination called a third-order enclave — a piece of India within a piece of Bangladesh within a piece of India within Bangladesh. The hitherto uncertainty over the border had led to a denial of basic services to Indians in such enclaves.#4 Excessive use of force is counterproductive in the Information Age Despite its clout, the international narrative has gone against Israel over the past month. International coverage has portrayed Israel as the aggressor. The armed attacks by Israel were broadcasted widely and the bloodied faces of Palestinians led many countries to pressurise Israel for a ceasefire. The key lesson here for India is that information age conflicts will be global by default. In the Industrial Age, state suppression could be covered up; that’s no longer the case in radically networked communities. State use of force against non-combatants is almost certain to receive instant condemnation from other countries. This further calls for prudence in using force.In sum, there’s a lot to be gained for both sides from a stronger India-Israel partnership. But a blindfolded emulation of the Israel Model will do far more harm than good.India Policy Watch #2: Vaccine Inequity Insights on burning policy issues in India- Pranay KotasthaneVaccine inequity — you are going to be hearing a lot of over the next few months. It is a hydra-headed term being used in a variety of contexts — some make sense and others don’t. Let’s explore all its facets.#1 Vaccine inequity in the international relations contextCanada, UK, EU and other rich countries are hoarding vaccines for its citizens. Citing inequity, repeated calls have been made by concerned citizens, groups, and WHO for releasing these hoarded doses.However, equity is orthogonal to the amoral world of international relations. Equity presupposes morality but when the international relations operates on the principle of matsysnaaya, every country is on its own. Calls for vaccine equity then may well make some countries donate a few token doses from their hoarded stock to ward off future criticism but it is unlikely to cause a significant shift in national stances. Instead of asking for vaccine equity, appealing to national interest will work better. At present, India is perhaps not in a position to cause pain to a state that doesn’t offload its excess supply. But it can definitely promise to deliver benefits to countries that do. A lowering of tariffs on some goods or conceding on a less-important point in a trade negotiation in exchange of vaccine donations, has higher chances of securing vaccines from abroad.#2 Inter-state vaccine inequityState-wise allocations have also come under fire on the grounds of vaccine inequity. This is not surprising. Neither is it solvable to everyone’s satisfaction. The paradox of distribution, in Deborah Stone’s words, is that “equality often means inequality, and equal treatment often means unequal treatment. The same distribution may look equal or unequal, depending on where you focus.” Till there’s supply scarcity, equalising distribution across states is impossible. Regardless of the formula used, it will be contested on the ground of being unequal by states that don’t fare well on a particular formula. In such a case, the goal should be distribute fairly and not equally. In the current circumstances, the fairest way out is to transparently declare a formula for distribution of vaccines from the union government quota and simultaneously allow states to procure additional doses on their own. #3 Digitally inflicted vaccine inequityGetting a vaccine appointment requires you to have a phone, an internet connection, and the ability to read English, and that this is unfair to people who have access to none of them. This is the vaccine equity dimension I sympathise with most. The CEO of the National Health Authority dismissed these concerns in an Indian Express article thus:“Imagine the chaos if online appointments had not been compulsory. Vaccination centres would have been swamped by people, creating not only law-and-order issues but also risk of infections. Invoking the digital divide, as the authors do, is premature and misplaced, for the vaccination drive is evolving as it unfolds, and data is the torchlight for correcting the anomalies.”“CoWin provides for on-site registration of people without access to the internet, smartphones or even a feature phone. Out of the 18.22 crore doses administered as on May 16, only 43 per cent have been administered through online appointments, the rest availed of on-site registration. Self-registration is just one component of CoWin. On-the-spot registration, walk-ins, registration of four citizens on one mobile number and use of common service centres for assisted registration underline the inclusive nature of CoWin.”Of course, what he hasn’t mentioned is that walk-in registration and appointment is not available for 18-44 age group. It would be fair if a predetermined percentage of vaccine slots are opened up for walk-in registrations. Even cinema halls allows on-spot movie ticket bookings in addition to the online-booked ones; surely our COVID-19 vaccination drive can accommodate for this requirement. Further, some centres can be dedicated for walk-in registrations. As the supply constraint eases, this problem should become less serious.#4 Income inflicted vaccine inequityThe argument here is that since the rich, formally employed citizens can get themselves vaccinated through their employers, the employers must in turn vaccinate low-income earners for equity reasons. This is a flawed argument. A government-run channel providing free vaccines is a better alternative. Mandating the private sector to cover up whenever the government fails is morally repugnant. It is precisely the kind of thinking that has allowed us to give our omni-absent state a free pass.A reminder to end this section. Given that vaccines have positive externalities, the primary goal of the vaccination drive should be to give jabs to as many people as soon as possible. Doing so in a fair and transparent way is the best that can be done for equity. To prioritise equity over speed would be counterproductive. The option is to choose between two suboptimal outcomes. After all, confronting trade-offs is the what separates better policymaking from the worse one.HomeWorkReading and listening recommendations on public policy matters[Audio] Dr. Rajendra Prasad Memorial Lectures series, 1969: Acharya Hazari Prasad Dwivedi on Guru Nanak: Personality, Concerns and Objective. Wonderful speech combining history and philosophy. [Article] An excerpt from a promising new book on ending counterinsurgencies. Get on the email list at publicpolicy.substack.com
We may have been in denial earlier, but no more. Covid-19 has laid bare how badly India's healthcare system is broken. Before we can fix it, we must understand it. Karthik Muralidharan joins Amit Varma in episode 225 of The Seen and the Unseen to shed light on his many years of studying this field. The discussion also contains thoughts on whether GDP is edible, and a bout of antakshiri right at the end. Also check out: 1. Fixing Indian Education -- Episode 185 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Karthik Muralidharan). 2. Past episodes of The Seen and the Unseen on Covid-19, featuring (in reverse chronological order) Gautam Menon, Ajay Shah, Anirban Mahapatra, Ruben Mascarenhas, Chinmay Tumbe, Rukmini S, Vaidehi Tandel, Vivek Kaul, Anup Malani and Shruti Rajagopalan. 3. We Are Fighting Two Disasters: Covid-19 and the Indian State -- Amit Varma. 4. Participatory Democracy -- Episode 160 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ashwin Mahesh). 5. Cities and Citizens -- Episode 198 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Ashwin Mahesh). 6. Urban Governance in India -- Episode 31 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Shruti Rajagopalan). 7. A Scientist in the Kitchen -- Episode 204 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Krish Ashok). 8. In Service of the Republic -- Vijay Kelkar and Ajay Shah. 9. The Art and Science of Economic Policy -- Episode 154 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Vijay Kelkar and Ajay Shah). 10. The Ultimate Resource -- Julian L Simon. 11. Population Is Not a Problem, but Our Greatest Strength -- Amit Varma. 12. Do Firms Underinvest in Long-term Research? -- Eric Budish, Benjamin N Roin & Heidi Williams. 13. Fortress and Frontier in American Health Care -- Robert F Graboyes. 14. Patents are Not the Problem! -- Alex Tabarrok. 15. The Tabarrok Curve. 16. The O-Ring Theory of Economic Development -- Michael Kremer. 17. Why Abhijit Banerjee Had to Go Abroad to Achieve Glory -- Amit Varma. 18. That Which is Seen, and That Which is Not Seen -- Frédéric Bastiat. 19. Lancelot Pinto's reply (about Asthma patients) to Amit Varma's tweet. 20. Demystifying GDP -- Episode 130 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Rajeswari Sengupta). And now, for some foundational papers: 21. Which doctor? Combining vignettes and item response to measure clinical competence (2005)-- Jishnu Das & Jeffrey Hammer. 22. Money for nothing: The dire straits of medical practice in Delhi, India (2007) -- Jishnu Das and Jeffrey Hammer. 23. Is There a Doctor in the House?: Medical Worker Absence in India (2011) -- Karthik Muralidharanan, Nazmul Chaudhury, Jeffrey Hammer, Michael Kremer & F Halsey Rogers. 24. Quality and Accountability in Health Care Delivery: Audit-Study Evidence from Primary Care in India (2016) -- Jishnu Das, Alaka Holla, Aakash Mohpal & Karthik Muralidharan. 25. The impact of training informal health care providers in India: A randomized controlled trial (2016)-- Jishnu Das, Abhijit Chowdhury, Reshmaan Hussam & Abhihit Banerjee. 26. Two Indias: The structure of primary health care markets in rural Indian villages with implications for policy (2020)-- Jishnu Das, Benjamin Daniels, Monisha Ashok, Eun-Young Shim & Karthik Muralidharan. 27. Augmenting State Capacity for Child Development: Experimental Evidence from India -- Alejandro J. Ganimian, Karthik Muralidharan & Christopher R Walters. Back to regular links to stuff discussed in the episode! 28. The Girl From Haryana -- Amit Varma (on Sakshi Malik and women wrestlers in Haryana). 29. The IndiaSpend interview of Rajani Bhat & Lancelot Pinto by Govindraj Ethiraj, (Also in Hindi.) 30. Beware of Quacks. Alternative Medicine is Injurious to Health -- Amit Varma. 31. Homeopathic Faith -- Amit Varma. 32. Deep Medicine -- Eric Topol. 33. The Market for Lemons -- George Akerloff. 34. The Medical Council of India -- Episode 8 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Pavan Srinath). 35. The Life and Times of Amit Varma -- Amit Varma's appearance on The Grand Tamasha, hosted by Milan Vaishnav. 36. Over 1000 teachers on UP panchayat poll duty died of Covid-19 -- Deccan Herald. 37. India's Power Elite: Class, Caste and Cultural Revolution -- Sanjaya Baru. 38. What Have We Done With Our Independence? -- Episode 186 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Pratap Bhanu Mehta). 39. The BJP Before Modi -- Episode 202 of The Seen and the Unseen (w Vinay Sitapati). 40. Muhafiz -- Ismail Merchant's adaptation of Anita Desai's In Custody. 41. Aaj Ek Harf Ko Phir Dhundhta Phirta Hain Khayal -- from Muhafiz. 42. Kabhi Khud Pe Kabhi Haalaat Pe Rona Aaya -- from Hum Dono. This episode is sponsored by CTQ Compounds. Check out The Daily Reader, FutureStack and The Social Capital Compound. Use the code UNSEEN for Rs 2500 off. Please subscribe to The India Uncut Newsletter. It’s free! And check out Amit’s online course, The Art of Clear Writing.
While excellent newsletters on specific themes within public policy already exist, this thought letter is about frameworks, mental models, and key ideas that will hopefully help you think about any public policy problem in imaginative ways. PS: If you enjoy listening instead of reading, we have this edition available as an audio narration on all podcasting platforms courtesy the good folks at Ad-Auris. If you have any feedback, please send it to us.📣📣📣 Announcement: Admissions are now open for the summer cohort of Takshashila Institution’s 12-week Graduate Certificate Programme in Public Policy. Visit takshashila.org.in/courses to find out more. Global Policy Watch: A Short History Of The Breitbart DoctrineBringing an Indian perspective to burning global issues- RSJIn edition #117 where we covered the resignation of Pratap Bhanu Mehta, we had a polemic by Edward Skidelsky as suggested reading in our homework section. We specifically quoted this line:“The ‘woke’ left is currently pursuing this goal by way of a Gramscian “long march through the institutions” — a progressive co-option of the schools, universities, state bureaucracies and big corporations.” What’s this ‘Gramscian long march’ that’s mentioned here? That’s the first question for this post.Separately, I was drawn to a U.S. national survey done by Cato Institute last year on freedom of expression. The results weren’t surprising to me (including the stupid graph that I have copied below from their site):“Strong liberals stand out, however, as the only political group who feel they can express themselves. Nearly 6 in 10 (58%) of staunch liberals feel they can say what they believe. However, centrist liberals feel differently. A slim majority (52%) of liberals feel they have to self‐censor, as do 64% of moderates, and 77% of conservatives. This demonstrates that political expression is an issue that divides the Democratic coalition between centrist Democrats and their left flank.”I take the ‘strong liberal’ in the US to be the progressive wing of the Democratic party. They are the ‘woke’ Skidelsky was referring to in his article. There’s no equivalent survey of this kind in India. But I would venture to suggest the “strong liberals” in India might not poll as well on speaking their minds nor would the Indian conservatives be as reticent as their American counterparts in today’s times. Based on incidents like P.B. Mehta’s resignation that seem to have become more frequent in recent years and the ‘chilling effect’ that follows, I would guess these percentages might just flip in India. Anyway, the percentages aren’t of interest to me. My interest is in the phenomenon. This dominance of one side that makes the other side self-censor themselves. What explains this? That’s the second question for this post.That Old Chestnut: The Breitbart DoctrineBoth these questions - on Gramscian long march and on self-censorship - bring me to the oft-repeated Breitbart doctrine:“Politics is downstream of culture.”That is, change the culture and sooner, politics will change. Now you’d think this was an insight that galvanised the American conservative right following the Obama takeover of the establishment. It was what got Trump into the White House with Steve Bannon in tow. That this was part of the right-wing toolkit. Nothing could be further from the truth. The left was likely the originator of the idea that culture influences politics. To understand this better, we will go through a short history of ‘manufacture of consent’ and ‘cultural hegemony’. Knowing it will help address the two questions raised at the start of this post as well. Manufacture Of ConsentThe term ‘manufacture of consent’ first appeared in Walter Lippman’s book ‘Public Opinion’ (1922). For Lippman, the world was too complex for an ordinary individual to comprehend. In order to make sense of it, people carried a mental image of the world inside their heads. These pictures were what drove groups or individuals to act in society in the name of Public Opinion. A strong democracy, therefore, needs institutions and media that help in creating the most accurate interpretations of the world in the minds of the people. But this isn’t easy. Lippman was worried democracy relied on something so irrational as a public opinion that takes shape in the minds of poorly informed and easily manipulated people. For Lippman, policymakers and experts should use narratives for ‘manufacture of consent’ among people which enables public opinion to be channelled in a manner that’s consistent with what’s good for society. Lippman believed persuasion and the knowledge of how to create consent through ‘propaganda’ will change politics in the age of mass media. As he wrote:“A revolution is taking place, infinitely more significant than any shifting of economic power. Within the life of the generation now in control of affairs, persuasion has become a self-conscious art and a regular organ of popular government. None of us begins to understand the consequences, but it is no daring prophecy to say that the knowledge of how to create consent will alter every political calculation and modify every political premise. Under the impact of propaganda, not necessarily in the sinister meaning of the word alone, the old constants of our thinking have become variables.” Noam Chomsky and Edward Herman in their book ‘Manufacturing Consent’ (1988) picked up this idea to argue media outlets are “are effective and powerful ideological institutions that carry out a system-supportive propaganda function.” Market forces and an entrenched establishment control the mass media which manipulates public opinion by revealing only half-truths and distorted facts that serve their interests. It manufactures consent through propaganda while keeping the ill-informed public in thrall with distractions and entertainment. Chomsky has since argued this control of mass culture through media and institutions and the ‘manufacture of consent’ is essential to the survival of capitalism.Gramsci And Cultural HegemonyWhile Lippman was writing about the need for the ‘manufacture of consent’ using culture in a capitalist democracy like America, Antonio Gramsci, an Italian neo-Marxist was thinking on similar lines in a prison in Mussolini’s Italy. Gramsci started with a simple question. Why didn’t the working class living in an oppressive regime (anything that’s non-Marxist was oppressive in his view) revolt more often when they could see clearly how badly the economic balance was tilted against them? Why didn’t the exploited rise in revolt more often?Gramsci argued a capitalist state had two overlapping spheres that helped it to thrive. There was the ‘political society’ that ruled through coercion and control of means of production which was visible to all. But there was also the ‘civil society’ that ruled through consent and control of minds. The civil society was the public sphere of ideas and beliefs that were shaped through the church, media or universities. To him, the capitalist state was successful in ‘manufacturing consent’ among people through the ‘cultural hegemony’ it set up through its control of the public sphere. People living in such societies didn’t question their position or their exploitation because they thought this was the ‘natural state’ of existence. The cultural hegemony was so complete and overpowering that there could hardly be any mobilisation of people against the ‘political society’ which ruled through coercion. The minds of the people were brainwashed through propaganda. Gramsci, therefore, concluded that for the struggle (or revolution) to take over means of production to even begin, the people will have to win the war over cultural hegemony. He used the WW1 terms that were in vogue then. For the war of manoeuvre (that is a direct attack over the enemy) to be successful, it has to be preceded by the war of position (digging trenches and cutting off enemy lines etc). The people will have to win the war of ideas and beliefs by creating their own cultural hegemony and taking over the public sphere through control of religious institutions, media and universities. This is the ‘Gramscian march’ that Skidelsky referred to in his article.This was a far-reaching idea about how the nature of power had changed in a world where universities and mass media shaped people’s thinking. The power of engineering consent using culture is the first step to launch a successful attack over an existing power structure. While Garmsci used neo-Marxian terms to expound his ideas, the broader implications of his argument were clear. In short: establishing cultural hegemony is the first step to winning the minds and eventually, the votes of people (we are talking of democracy here). Over time, this hegemony in the public sphere will earn you the long-term consent of the people who will consider it their ‘natural state’. Self-censorship will follow as an outcome of this hegemony. That addresses the second question on why people self-censor themselves.Over a hundred years since Lippman first wrote about ‘manufacture of consent’, the idea that politics is downstream of culture has only acquired greater currency in a saturated media space that all of us inhabit now. The left and the right have both acquired the toolkits to fight this ‘war of position’ in various democracies around the world. In the US, it is ‘woke left’ on a supposed Gramscian march today. In India, I suspect, the shoe is on the other foot. But the march is definitely on.India Policy Watch: Mandal AgainInsights on burning policy issues in India- Pranay KotasthaneA Constitution Bench of the Supreme Court is set to announce its judgment on the Maratha quota case. Amongst other issues, the court will decide on the question if state governments can breach the 50 per cent reservation ceiling. This 50 per cent limit comes from the Indra Sawhney judgment of 1993, which legally upheld the recommendations of the Mandal Committee Report. Legal issues aside, today’s political reality makes this judgment even more riveting. Perhaps all political parties appear to be in favour of going beyond this 50 per cent limit, although in different ways. The NDA government has already increased reservations to ~60 per cent in central-government jobs, central-government educational institutions, and private educational institutions through the 103rd constitutional amendment in 2019. The additional 10 per cent seats are now meant to be reserved for economically weaker sections (EWS) of citizens not already benefiting from reservation. In other words, this quota is for persons from non-SC, non-ST, non-OBC classes, as long as their earning is below a defined income threshold. On the other hand, many caste-based and one-caste-dominated political parties are in favour of breaching the 50 per cent ceiling in order to extend or increase quotas for their caste base. The gap between the court-prescribed ceiling and the political reality has become unsustainable. To use a Ravi Shastri phrase, “something’s gotta give”. Not to forget, that 50 per cent ceiling number itself is quite contrived. Read what the Indra Sawhney case judgment says:Just as every power must be exercised reasonably and fairly, the power conferred by Clause (4) of Article 16 should also be exercised in a fair manner and within reasonably limits - and what is more reasonable than to say that reservation under Clause (4) shall not exceed 50% of the appointments or posts, barring certain extra-ordinary situations as explained hereinafter. From this point of view, the 27% reservation provided by the impugned Memorandums in favour of backward classes is well within the reasonable limits. Together with reservation in favour of Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes, it comes to a total of 49.5%. Beneath the legalese, observe the narrative power of numbers at play. Any measured phenomenon creates implicit norms of what is “too high” or “too low”. The 50 per cent limit seems intuitively “just right” or “balanced” — half of the seats have quotas while the other half doesn’t. This powerful narrative largely survived for over 25 years but seems to be falling apart now. And so it appears that reservations have ceased to be a means to correct for inadequate representation of certain disadvantaged sections. Instead, reservations have become springboards for all groups to demand proportional representation. The implicit norm now is that the State needs to enable representation of groups in educational institutions and government jobs according to their proportion in the population; the question of historical disadvantage has been relegated to an incidental criterion. Moreover, the general equilibrium effect of quotas is that group identities have become sharper and more powerful. Is there another way out?There is no doubt that a republic founded in a society with a long history of systematic discrimination will inevitably resort to some affirmative action. But is there a way out beyond caste-based reservations? Nitin Pai and I had proposed one such alternative a couple of years ago in FirstPost:Consider this thought experiment. There are no predetermined quotas for any posts. Positions are filled only based on a composite score of all applicants. The composite score is a combination of two measures. The first is an inequityscore — calculated to compensate for the relative disadvantage faced by an applicant.The second measure strictly represents an applicant’s ability to be effective for the position they are applying for. Selection is on the basis of the composite score. No seats are reserved and yet the score allows for addressing multidimensional inequity much better than current methods.The inequity score can be used to indicate relative disadvantage along several dimensions: individual, social and geographic. Different factors can be assigned different weightages. For instance, given the salience of caste in the Indian social context, the greater the disadvantage a community faces, the higher the weightage.In addition, we can incorporate other parameters into the inequity score — parents’ level of education, income levels, rural upbringing, or even childhood nutritional deficiencies. Currently, our system of quota-based allocations does not account for non-caste disadvantages that have a disproportionate impact on life outcomes.A national commission for equity can be formed to propose and review parameters and their weightages within a cooperative federal framework. It doesn’t have to be one-size-fits-all solution. States can assign their own factors and weightages according to the local conditions.The second measure — an effectiveness score — can then be kept completely independent of equity considerations. It can take the form of a test, an interview or any other indicator to assess candidates’ ability to perform the job they have applied for. Information about the inequity scores can be masked from evaluators of the effectiveness score.By filling positions based on a sum of the two scores, it becomes possible to be more comprehensive in addressing social inequities while also creating stronger incentives for an individual pursuit of excellence.Satish Deshpande and Yogendra Yadav had proposed a similar model for higher education way back in 2006:An evidenced-based model addressing multiple sources of group and individual disadvantages helps to de-essentialise identity markers such as caste or religion; that is, it provides a rational explanation why specific castes or communities are entitled to compensatory discrimination and undermines attitudes that treat such entitlements as a “birth right”.In essence, this solution tries to solve for both “merit” and “disadvantage”. The opponents of reservation claim that quotas directly undermine efficiency and merit. The proponents of quotas on the other hand find the notion of merit completely odious. They argue on these lines: Efficiency of administration in the affairs of the Union or of a State must be defined in an inclusive sense, where diverse segments of society find representation as a true aspiration of governance by and for the people. In contrast to quotas, the composite score solution acknowledges that some assessment of “merit” is inescapable, even desirable. But it also doesn't ignore the problem that disadvantaged individuals face. Hence, we believe it is a better solution than quotas.In edition#72, we discussed a framework on “nine competing visions of equality” only to reiterate Deborah Stone’s insightful conclusion:“equality often means inequality, and equal treatment often means unequal treatment. The same distribution may look equal or unequal, depending on where you focus.”Essentially, any distribution, however equalising it is in one respect, can be charged as being unequal on another parameter. What matters far more is whether a distribution is perceived as being fair or not. As Starmans et al write:… humans naturally favour fair distributions, not equal ones, and that when fairness and equality clash, people prefer fair inequality over unfair equality In the Indian context, quotas come with charges of unfairness. It is time to look beyond them. PS: A commonplace assertion that “the constitution imagined reservations to last only for ten years at the outset” is a myth. This 10-year clause was meant to apply to reservations of seats for SC/ST groups in the Lok Sabha and Legislative Assemblies. There was no such 10-year limit on reservations in jobs and educational institutions under articles 15(4) and 16(4). I too believed in this urban myth having read it being regurgitated in countless opinion pieces. Hat-tip to an alert Puliyabaazi listener for updating my priors. HomeWorkReading and listening recommendations on public policy matters[Video] "The Big Idea" - a half-hour interview between Noam Chomsky and British journalist Andrew Marr, first aired by the BBC in February 1996. A great interview where Andrew Marr is completely convinced he’s not taken in by the propaganda while Chomsky is sure he is! [Podcast] A Puliyabaazi episode discussing the nine competing visions of equality[Article] Alexander Lee on redesigning India’s reservation system[Article] Satish Deshpande traces the history of reservation policies[Article] Pratap Bhanu Mehta on how the open category is slowly becoming a reserved category through other means Get on the email list at publicpolicy.substack.com
This newsletter is really a public policy thought-letter. While excellent newsletters on specific themes within public policy already exist, this thought-letter is about frameworks, mental models, and key ideas that will hopefully help you think about any public policy problem in imaginative ways. It seeks to answer just one question: how do I think about a particular public policy problem/solution?PS: If you enjoy listening instead of reading, we have this edition available as an audio narration on all podcasting platforms courtesy the good folks at Ad-Auris. If you have any feedback, please send it to us.- RSJA short mid-week note on some points that have emerged from the Pratap Bhanu Mehta resignation issue. Let’s take the issue of ‘shrinking liberal space’ in the public discourse and how this is another example of it. All politics is a contestation of narratives. The primary motive is to have your narrative dominate while diminishing the rest. So, from a realist lens, this is what every political party aspires to while few achieve. Therefore to expect any different from any dominant political grouping is to live under a delusion. You might desire a secure and self-assured dispensation that lets a thousand different and often dissenting ideas bloom. But that ideal state of affairs is rare anywhere in the world and in history. India is no stranger to a narrative dominating its body politic for decades. Good or bad is beside the point here. There’s another narrative in town now and, naturally, it wants to dominate forever. QuestionsThat brings us to a couple of questions. Isn’t good or bad that was conveniently brushed aside above, an important point in this context? If this narrative dominance is what is to be expected, should this be a worry for India?Well, narrative dominance of any kind is an unstable equilibrium. For three reasons. One, we aim for dominance but once we achieve it, boredom sets in. No one likes to watch games where their team is so dominant that there is no contest. Over time we lose interest or we create two versions of our team to play against each other. Soon it is “us” versus “them” again. Either way, the narrative dominance is broken. This is also the reason there can never be a successful conservative-only or liberal-only social media platform in the long term. People crave to argue. To go one up on others. They will invent enemies if they have to. We have written about Schmitt’s friend-enemy construct in politics before here. Two, narrative dominance of any kind doesn’t emerge out of a vacuum. It is built on the vestige of a previously dominant narrative. Those who were dominated by the previous narrative, remember those times. The humiliation and the rage of being under it is the fuel that sustains the current narrative. Unfortunately, humans are mortal. They die and a whole new generation arrives who have no first-hand experience of the previous narrative. They only learn about it from the surviving members who tell them about the horrors of the past. Or, from books. That’s one of the reasons why changing history textbooks is always on the agenda of every dispensation in the world. You control the past, you control the future. But time wears down everything eventually. In the pre-internet era, this could take multiple generations to come to a pass. That has shrunk now. Alternative narratives sustain themselves online and the information velocity facilitates their spread. Three, there’s always a tendency to overreach among those who are driving their narrative dominance. Nothing remains sacrosanct in their desire to dominate - university, media, courts, law enforcement agencies, regulators or independent bodies. In a democracy, with strong independent institutions, the checks and balances in-built in the system come into play to counter this. This is a battle of attrition between institutions and political formations. The institutions usually win because they are designed to be permanent. They are necessary for democracy to survive. If they are subverted, democracy withers away.The Indian ProblemBetween the three, the institutional response tends to be the fastest way to counter-narrative dominance. The other two could take time and a lot could be undone during that period. The challenge in India is the institutional mechanism has been systematically weakened over many decades. To begin with, we inherited colonial institutional and legal structures that weren’t exactly suited for liberal democracy. Whatever gains we made in building new institutions and strengthening them were lost starting from the 70s. The Emergency being a high watermark of that era. Since then it has been one step forward and two backward on this. The reasons why a state or the union government in India can make citizens or private entities (like a private university) fall in line are two-fold. One, there are just too many outdated laws often working at cross purposes that are impossible for anyone to manage. This gives the state the power to haul you up for breaking the law. Two, the willingness of the institutions to do the bidding of the political class because their independence has been compromised. This means a CBI or a Tax raid is always around the corner. Coercive institutions are a structural problem and there’s little incentive for political parties to change this. This seems like an irreversible slide. The problem with this slide is clear. Overtime when this narrative loses steam and an alternative narrative emerges (as it will), expect its adherents to be keener to dominate every sphere. To eliminate space for any dissent. And they will do so using the same tools - political and ideological mobilisation that overwhelms the institutions. Pratap Bhanu Mehta might have been countering the narrative of the current regime in his op-ed pieces. But the larger point he was making was probably beyond it. He was alerting us to the dangers of this inevitable slide. HomeWorkReading and listening recommendations on public policy matters[Article] “The Spectre of Totalitarianism: The worst offenders in the new climate of intolerance are our universities” writes Edward Skidelsky in The Critic. Money quote: The “woke” left is currently pursuing this goal by way of a Gramscian “long march through the institutions” — a progressive co-option of the schools, universities, state bureaucracies and big corporations. Get on the email list at publicpolicy.substack.com
Did Pratap Bhanu Mehta jump from Ashoka University? Or was he pushed? This seems to be the Hamlet-esque “to-be-or-not-to-be” question of the day in the Indian media. The simple answer is that it is very good if he was pushed. And it’s even better if he jumped.That of course needs an explanation. The push option is if the Government of India made an offer to the trustees of Ashoka that they couldn’t refuse: get rid of the fellow, or else! That, of course, would be Godfather-esque, and it would mark a welcome change from the pusillanimity that India has traditionally exhibited. Soft States don’t work, which should have been abundantly clear to us all along.If it wasn’t clear, the antics of Xi Jinping’s minions in Alaska just a few days ago should have been enough to convince the most obtuse among us. They calculate that Biden is soft (we can speculate as to why they are so confident about that), so they humiliated the US side as is their wolf-warrior habit. Xi is broadcasting loudly that Biden’s US is a Soft State and that he pwns Biden. Whether this is true remains to be seen, but it is a good opening gambit.India has been the ultimate Soft State, mouthing meaningless platitudes and cringe-inducing homilies while spectators roll their eyes and silently pray: “Just kill me now!”. Hark back to V K Krishna Menon delivering marathon lectures at the UN General Assembly or J Nehru turning down the offer of the Security Council Seat “because China deserves it more”. (By the way, I can quote chapter and verse: no, it is not an urban myth).So if there is — finally — a change of heart, and India does stand up for its interests, then it would be welcome news. Doing tejovadham to undesirables is part of what governments are supposed to do. This was visible in the case of yesterday’s cause celebre as well, the mop-haired Disha Ravi. The fact that she was arrested is important. She herself is unimportant, but it sends a message to other wannabe Urban Naxals: “Your ass is on the line, kid!”, pardon the French.For a long time, secessionists have labored under the illusion that they were immune to the power of the State. They have seen overground and underground purveyors of sedition treated with kid gloves, and they got used to thinking that this is the natural order of things. Not quite. They should look up Julius and Ethel Rosenberg, Julian Assange, and Edward Snowden. The human rights of outlaws or insurgents or their middle-class supporters are not — and they cannot be — greater than those of the average, law-abiding citizen. That is an axiom, and all the billions of the Open Society Foundation and #DeepState are not going to change that very easily. The alternative in Pratap Bhanu Mehta’s case, the jump option, is even better because it means he had no option but to fall on the sword. In other words, the Government didn’t do anything, but out of enlightened self-interest, the trustees of Ashoka informed him that he should resign, or else they would have to fire him: Because he was causing real damage to the Ashoka brand. Of course, Mehta has friends, powerful and shadowy friends. Within 24 hours, there was a letter written by 150 professors from “Harvard, MIT, Yale, Columbia, Oxford, Cambridge” and so on, in his support. Commendably swift. The Ecosystem has its act together to protect its own. The letter also means… exactly nothing. It is precisely like the letter signed by 22 (or was it 35?) Nobel laureates supporting a Naxalite doctor some years ago. I would wager that none of these worthies could even spell that man’s name, or pick him out in a police lineup of suspects. They just blindly signed a piece of paper somebody put in front of their noses. There was also the petition signed by 47.5 “ancient India scholars” some years ago regarding the Aryan Invasion Mythology and related stories in the California Textbook Case. I wrote an unpublished piece then where I pointed out that these alleged “scholars” included people who can’t read Sanskrit or Tamil, urban planners, astrophysicists, economists, sociologists, linguists in unrelated languages, deconstructionists, etc. The one person who had the requisite background in both ancient history and languages retracted her support.In other words, these letters are part of a “toolkit”, a term immortalized by Disha Ravi in her 15 minutes of fame. The same worthies crying about Mehta’s “freedom of expression” or whatever chose to ignore the fact that a young, brown, foreign, racial/religious minority Hindu woman, Rashmi Samant, was cyber-bullied, trolled, terrorized, and forced to resign from her post as elected president of the Oxford Student Union, just days ago. Why? That was a rhetorical question. We know the answer. The same worthies have also ignored a vile campaign by a foul-mouthed assistant professor at Rutgers University to demonize a small racial and religious minority, Hindus, mostly Asian Americans. Tulsi Gabbard, a Hindu though not Asian (she’s a Pacific Islander), has been attacked directly for her faith. Although the hate campaign against her was utterly horrifying, not a single academic bothered to condemn it. Here is an actual campaign poster against Gabbard. (Hat tip to Sheenie Ambardar for this).No, none of this bothers the 150 letter writers. That means they have no moral leg to stand on: they are hypocrites. But they make it sound like Mehta was subjected to something akin to what Hypatia, the foremost woman scholar of her time, and a philosopher and mathematician of repute, experienced in Rome around 300CE. They dragged her out of her chariot and into a church, stripped her naked, gouged out her eyeballs while she was still alive, slashed her to pieces with broken tiles, then cut her body up, dragged the pieces through the streets, and burned them: all because newly-ascendant Christians hated pagans. In fact, it was Rashmi Sawant who was treated a bit like Hypatia, not Pratap Bhanu Mehta; and explicitly for the same reason: she is a Hindu. Abrahamics have a serious problem with Hindus and others of the Old Religions. As described in the fascinating book The Darkening Age: The Christian Destruction of the Classical World, majoritarian rule by Christians meant the total destruction of the old Roman religion around 400-500 CE.Majoritarian rule by Abrahamics almost inevitably means religious minorities are oppressed, and frequently they are wiped out, exterminated. So there is good reason to fear majoritarian Abrahamic rule, as freedoms will be curtailed.However, by sleight of hand, this Abrahamic technique is ascribed to Hindus, and the likes of Mehta talk up a storm about ‘fascistic’, ‘majoritarian Hindu nationalist’ rule! This sells well to the Deep State and Christian fundamentalists and regime-change enthusiasts in the West, but is entirely without basis. It is a gigantic fraud that ordinary Indians have also been gaslighted into. Hindu rule is demonstrably benign and liberal. Look at the classical Chanakya niti: he advocates sama, dana, bheda and only when other avenues are explored and fruitless, danda. The Pandavas give the Kauravas innumerable opportunities to negotiate a settlement without bloodshed, even willing to accept merely five villages for themselves, while the empire went to the Kauravas.Then there’s the Sisupala story, where Lord Krishna forgives 99 transgressions before slaying him. And look at India today. It may have a large numerical majority of Hindus, but it is a Minoritarian State, as interpreted by the Executive and Judiciary and enshrined in the Constitution. Religious minorities get all sorts of privileges not available to Hindus, most distressingly the fact that Hindu temples are captured by the State. Just two days ago, government bureaucrats were selling off 35,000 acres of land belonging to the Lord Jagannath temple. The vast holdings of churches (the #2 land-owner in the country, after the government), much of it expired 99-year-leases that they squat on illegally as though they were land grants, are never touched. Waqf properties, that is Muslim community properties, are also left alone.There are special provisions for all sorts of things for minorities. Kerala’s government has posted employment advertisements that are reserved for converts to Christianity! There are schemes to pay Muslim priests salaries and Christian priests pensions and to greatly subsidize Muslim pilgrimage to Mecca and Christian pilgrimage to Jerusalem, while Hindus have to pay for their pilgrimages out of their own pockets. And the Modi government, accused of ‘majoritarianism’ has itself rolled out goodies like scholarship schemes, even entire universities and schemes for women, explicitly for non-Hindus! In other words, extreme liberalism is being painted as fascism! How very predictable! How very Orwellian!All the breast-beating by Mehta and friends about ‘majoritarianism’ boils down to a concern that Hindus will get equality. That’s right: any attempt by Hindus to merely demand equality under the law is treated as ‘fascism’. This is the kind of extreme rhetoric that the malcontents in India espouse.For instance, they made a godawful fuss about the badly-named Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), which merely provides non-Muslim minorities being genocided in Pakistan and Afghanistan fast-track access to Indian citizenship. This was portrayed as a grave offense: why? Because the Pak and Afghan Muslims doing the genocide would not gain Indian citizenship! That is utterly absurd!The genocide is not theoretical, either. Just two days ago, there was news of Ajay Lalwani, a Hindu journalist in Pakistan, being shot dead by a gunman. His crime: he had reported on how underage Hindu girls in Pakistan suffer regular kidnap, rape, conversion to Islam, and forced marriage to Muslims. This happens on average to three teenage girls a day, every day. That is explicit Abrahamic majoritarianism. And that is precisely why CAA is an utterly liberal law, protecting the victims of religious apartheid and genocide. Nevertheless, here is Pratap Bhanu Mehta fulminating against the CAA, passed into law by the elected Indian parliament, and suggesting in so many words that the way to challenge it was not to use the Judiciary, but to riot in the streets. But we should recognise that this direction is not going to be set through the nice formalisms of law, or the contrived conventions we can adhere to in normal times. The direction is going to be set by the mob, by brute power, by mobilisation.This is outrageous. Some might call it seditious. If there were McCarthyites in India, they would nail Mehta. There aren’t, so he gets cushy sinecures, while spearheading a reverse-McCarthyite movement to blackball anybody who is not part of his cohort’s Big Brother thought control!What explains this strange power Mehta has to keep an entire country in thrall to his views? It couldn’t possibly be his regular op-eds in the Indian Express. I have been surprised by the drivel he churns out. It is verbose and prolix, full of the turgid and impenetrable vocabulary of the cultural Marxist. He writes 3,000-word essays that say… exactly nothing. That is, of course, when he’s not inciting people to riot, as above. On second thoughts, maybe it is better that he not use many verbs, unlike this famous Doonesbury strip from 1980 lampooning Ted Kennedy.Pratap Bhanu Mehta remains an enigma; nay, a mystery wrapped in a conundrum. What is the source of his influence? How does he regularly end up in prestigious positions for which he may or may not be qualified or competent? Is he an outstanding scholar who has produced great work? Why is he the darling of the Ecosystem? The blurb on Mehta says this:His areas of research include political theory, constitutional law, society and politics in India, governance and political economy, and international affairs.Not being in that business, I have no idea what his contribution is. I used to think he must be a globally-renowned scholar. But so far as I can tell, he has not done any path-breaking, seminal work. The only awards on his blurb are from India. So why is there such a fuss about him from Anglosphere friends? Mehta sounds rather like Yogendra Yadav, who is famous only for being famous. It would also be interesting to see if any of those worthies from Columbia, Yale, Harvard, MIT, Oxford, etc. actually invites Mehta to a position in their home institutions. Somehow I doubt that, because they have their own bailiwicks to protect, and anyway he’s probably more useful to them if he is in India. But it is not unknown for washed-up Ecosystem journalists (I can name at least two) to be given cushy slots in the Deep State newspapers of the West. There was also a journalist who said she was an Associate Professor at Harvard, until it crashed and burned and she made (hard to believe) excuses about mail fraud. So I for one would not be surprised if Mehta were to turn up at some university that is friendly to the Deep State and Atlanticism. Don’t cry for Pratap Bhanu Mehta, Argentina. Or Lutyens, or Khan Market. I am pretty sure he’ll pop up somewhere, being hailed as the new Solzhenitsyn. The real Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, poor guy, will turn over in his grave. POSTSCRIPT: Gurcharan Das confirms that Mehta jumped, and was not pushed. Somehow that is a little disappointing. So we are still a Soft State? Sigh. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/toi-edit-page/a-tale-of-two-heroes-tragedy-at-ashoka-university-shows-the-difficulty-of-doing-good-in-todays-world/ This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit rajeevsrinivasan.substack.com
This newsletter is really a public policy thought-letter. While excellent newsletters on specific themes within public policy already exist, this thought-letter is about frameworks, mental models, and key ideas that will hopefully help you think about any public policy problem in imaginative ways. It seeks to answer just one question: how do I think about a particular public policy problem/solution?PS: If you enjoy listening instead of reading, we have this edition available as an audio narration on all podcasting platforms courtesy the good folks at Ad-Auris. If you have any feedback, please send it to us.India Policy Watch #1: Choose Your Nationalism WiselyInsights on burning policy issues in India- RSJA short note on nationalism to think about for this edition.There was the usual brouhaha in media last week over a few international agencies downgrading India on some kind of global ‘freedom index’. The usual reactions have followed. For some, it is a validation of all they see happening around them. Our freedoms are being eroded and we watch silently, they claim. As Majrooh wrote (in that Guru Dutt romcom ‘Mr & Mrs 55’): “मेरी दुनिया लुट रही थी, और मैं खामोश था” On the other hand, the establishment and its supporters view this as another ‘left-liberal-woke’ attempt to malign a new, confident India. To them, there is freedom in India to freely express your dissent and criticise anyone. The old order of the privileged elite who feel left out in the present order is keen to paint India in poor light. They have been discredited and rejected by the masses, yet they persist. This is the argument made by the ‘nationalists’ (or atleast that’s what their Twitter handles claim).The CounterThis was following the usual script on social media. We took interest, however, when the Minister of External Affairs (MEA) was asked about these ‘freedom’ reports. He dismissed the basis for their conclusions and questioned their intentions. More importantly, he gave two interesting counters to the usual ‘Hindu nationalist’ branding of the current dispensation in large sections of global media and among thinktanks. The first was factual - they call us nationalists but we are leading the efforts in donating vaccines to countries around the world. We have already shipped over 40-50 million vaccine doses taking a humanitarian view instead of keeping them for ourselves. Tell us which western democracy is doing so? Then the second point - in these countries almost every elected official takes the oath of office with their hand on a holy religious book (America and the Bible were possibly what he meant). Do we do so in India?Social media was abuzz with this clip. This is the ‘new, confident India’ was the usual comment among the partisans. Well, maybe it is. Who knows? To me, this incident is another useful lens to view nationalism. There are two things to parse here. One, is ‘vaccine diplomacy’ the antithesis of nationalism? Two, is the taking of an oath of office on a holy book blurring the lines between the church and the state?A Masterstroke Let’s tackle 'vaccine diplomacy’. We go on in these pages about international relations being guided by matsyanyaaya - big fish eating small fish. This is realism at play. All morality stops at the boundary of a nation-state. Beyond that is Hobbesian chaos. Going by this, donating millions of vaccines to other nations while you haven’t vaccinated your own would seem insane. But that would be taking a narrow view of matsyanyaya. International relations is a long game with a clear understanding of your adversaries and their strengths. Vaccine diplomacy for India is a perfect counter to China in the post-pandemic world. China’s conduct in suppressing information during the initial phase of the pandemic and its bullying behaviour around the region later are open flanks for India to exploit. Donating vaccines at an early stage of their mass production checks all the boxes of being a reliable friend in international relations - it is relevant and timely, and it involves sacrificing self-interest to help others. That it provides a counter to the view in global media about this being a nationalistic dispensation is an added bonus. This act isn’t one of those false masterstrokes. This is the real thing. What Kind Of Nationalism?Now on to the oath and the holy book business. What’s the core issue here? If you peel the layers, there are two questions to be tackled. How important is the role of ethnocultural nationalism in the building of a modern nation-state?If it is important then what kind of ethnocultural nationalism should a state strive for to achieve its objectives of peace and prosperity for its citizens?On the first question, it is hard to argue against the advantages of solidarity and a communitarian outlook that ethnonationalism engenders among the members of a nation. Universal brotherhood is great in the abstract but all kinship is real and very specific. The idea of a free individual owing allegiance to higher human ideals while being aloof from the emotions and instincts of his immediate surrounding is bizarre. It isn’t sustainable and it motivates no real action. It can never help in the project of nation-building. Nationalism might be seen as ‘false consciousness’ to the liberal but it is a tangible driver of change among its adherents. It can move mountains. Ethno-cultural examples of nation-building abound in modern history. From the white Anglo-Saxon Protestants who built America, the ethnic chauvinism that welded modern Germany during the pre-WW1 period or the cultural renaissance that motivated imperial Japan between the wars. Even the rise of China in the past quarter-century is an ethnocultural project.Now if that’s true, what about the second question? What kind of ethnocultural nationalism should the state strive for? There’s always the danger of an ethnocultural movement ascribing a core moral or cultural value to a nation that excludes a significant minority from it. This is almost certain if the ethnocultural value is derived from a glorious past (real or imagined) which is lost today because of reasons beyond the control of the majority that believes in the value. The notion of Aryan supremacy and its undermining by Jews in the past or the belief in the supremacy of the Japanese subjects of Sun God and its imperial project thereafter are examples of this. The momentum of a nationalist movement is beyond the control of those who start it. History has shown it destroys a lot before it builds something. And what it builds is rarely sustainable. It is never easy to balance liberal-democratic values and nationalistic attitudes. A middle ground is often sought but rarely achieved. This was the project that faced the leaders of modern India at its founding moment in 1947. They chose a modern conception of the Indian nation - liberal, tolerant and statist - and promoted cultural and historical artefacts that supported this ethnocultural nationalism. That was the middle ground they chose to build a modern India. This is what they thought worked for successful liberal, democratic nation-states they saw around the world. It was bold and it was a clear break from the past. And let’s be clear. It was also the only option that wouldn’t have plunged the nation into anarchy. This project of building ethnocultural nationalism caught the imagination of people in the early years. However, as recent years have shown, it didn’t grow deep roots. Why? It’s a whole different story and we have covered a few of the reasons on these pages. In any case, India is back at that moment in its history. What kind of ethnocultural nationalism must it choose for the current project of nation-building? That’s at the heart of the debate these days. The democratic mandate seems to suggest upending the consensus of its founding moment. There’s always the lure of learning the wrong lessons from history. Did India choose unwisely then or did it get the execution wrong over the last 70 years? It is hard to build and easy to destroy as Amit Varma says in his newsletter. There’s a lot to think over here. Choose your nationalism wisely. Lastly, the American Presidents take the oath of office placing their palms on the Bible. Sure. But they don’t open it to run the country. There’s a balance. Matsyanyaaya #1: Quad Not Being Square AnymoreBig fish eating small fish = Foreign Policy in action— Pranay KotasthaneIt’s amazing how often and quickly a common, powerful, and abrasive adversary can make States bury their mutual differences. China as an adversary has reliably displayed all the three attributes, and in the process, created a new geopolitical formation — the Quad.This formation, of course, is not new. It has hummed and hawed for nearly fifteen years. But it is China’s rapid growth and arrogant conduct that has breathed life into this idea. And finally, last week was the first time when the four heads of State met and proudly declared to the world that the Quad is here to stay and act. This reminded me of Edward Luttwak’s prescient analysis from his 2012 book The Rise of China vs The Logic of Strategy:“Other things being equal, when a state of China’s magnitude pursues rapid military growth, unless the resulting shift in the power balance passes the culminating point of resistance inducing the acceptance of some form of subjection, it causes a general realignment of forces against it, as former allies retreat into a watchful neutrality, former neutrals become adversaries, and adversaries old and new coalesce in formal or informal alliances against the excessively risen power.”In other words, for China, with great power came great adversaries.This Quad summit meeting is significant at two levels: procedural and substantive. By procedural significance, I mean that for the four States to meet and release a joint statement is itself a big deal. Usually, different countries have different readouts on major issues. The joint statement was followed up by a joint opinion piece under the names of the four heads of state. In diplomacy, where words are everything, the willingness to agree on terminologies, definitions, policy proposals, and actions with not one but three other differently placed partners, is major progress. Think of these joint statements as the diplomatic equivalents of conducting joint military exercises. Extrinsically, it is an exercise in signalling to the adversary. Intrinsically, it helps develop some comfort working in unison.By substantive significance, I mean the creation of three working groups on vaccines, critical and emerging technologies, and climate change. While China is a glue that can hold these countries together, it can’t be a fuel that propels the Quad forward. That requires a positive agenda of action items, which these three working groups do. Of the three areas, the vaccine partnership seems to be the most well-thought-out. In short, all four countries have agreed to expand the manufacturing of COVID-19 vaccines at facilities in India and give these vaccines to countries in the Indo-Pacific. Sanjaya Baru describes the geoeconomic significance of this move thus:“What Quad has already achieved in geo-economic terms is to use the Asian demand for Covid-19 vaccines as an opportunity to create a four-way economic relationship that combines the benefits of American research, Japanese funding, Indian manufacturing capacity and Australian marketing network to supply vaccines to Asian developing countries. This is without doubt a smart idea and one that can ensure its equal ownership by all four partner countries.”From the Indian perspective, Quad giving an impetus to vaccine investment in India pours cold water on the usual doubts that prevent collaboration with western countries. The second working group on critical and emerging technologies seems to be the most undercooked. For starters, there isn’t an agreement on the definition of critical and emerging technologies. The Trump administration did label 20 technologies as critical and emerging but to expect multilateral cooperation on all twenty would be a high cost, low returns approach. We have argued earlier that a better approach would be to secure semiconductor supply chains first for three reasons: “one, the semiconductor industry underlies all critical technologies. Two, it is perhaps the most globalised high-value supply chain and no country can become entirely self-resilient. And three, all four countries have complementary strengths in the semiconductor supply chain.”Better if the four countries can demonstrate measurable success on less controversial technologies such as semiconductors before dealing with the more vexing questions of cyber governance, data privacy, and AI governance. Finally, this Quad meeting was initiated by the US president, putting all doubts to rest that the Biden administration might soften its stance against China. In fact, the US now seems to have a more concerted strategy to contain China. That they have a leader who is not abrasive is itself a big relief for the other partners.Matsyanyaaya #2: Nayaa Pakistan Again?Big fish eating small fish = Foreign Policy in action— Pranay KotasthanePakistan is back in the headlines these days. Surprisingly though, for good reasons. First came the much-needed Line of Control ceasefire agreement earlier this month. Since then, no ceasefire violations have been reported. And last week came a couple of conciliatory statements by the Pakistani Chief of Army Staff and PM Imran Khan.Gen Bajwa had this to say:.. let me say profoundly that we are ready to improve our environment by resolving all our outstanding issues with our neighbours through dialogue in a dignified and peaceful manner.However, it is important to state that, this choice is deliberate and based on rationality and not as a result of any pressure. It is our sincere desire to re-cast Pakistan's image as a peace-loving nation and a useful member of international community. Our leadership's vision is Alhamdullilah transformational in this regard. We have learned from the past to evolve and are willing to move ahead towards a new future, however, all this is contingent upon reciprocity.Pakistani PM Imran Khan echoed:“Pakistan could not fully exploit its geo-economic potential unless it improved its ties with neighbours by strengthening trading connection and establishing peace in the region.” The ceasefire agreement and these two statements mean that the marginally hopeful types are again entertaining these two questions: has Pakistan turned a corner finally? Will we see a sustained improvement in India-Pakistan relations?On the first question, it’s too early to conclude. However, there are a few signs. Pakistan did not ratchet up tensions on the western border all through 2020, at a time when India was busy dealing with the China threat. Two, from Pakistan’s standpoint, India’s changing of Jammu & Kashmir’s constitutional status provided it with a potential casus belli to escalate terrorism. It hasn’t yet done so. What explains this change in strategy? Probably a mix of new drivers and constraints. The major drivers are a dawning realisation that deploying terrorism as state policy has done more harm than good and the need to impress the new US administration. The major constraint, and one that’s hurting them most, is a flagging economy with declining external benefactors. To answer the second question, let’s revisit the theory of constructivism in international relations. Constructivism contests the realist worldview that anarchy in international relations immutably leads to a security dilemma. Constructivist theorists argue that while amassing power remains the most important priority in a state of anarchy, this competition doesn't imply permanent confrontation. In Alexander Wendt’s now-famous “construction”: Anarchy is what states make of it. In other words, while all states pursue power, their identities and interests are socially constructed — it is not impossible to reimagine enemies as adversaries, adversaries as neutrals, and neutrals as friends. Big fish do eat small fish but only when they’re hungry.Seen from a constructivist lens, we can now ask if elites in India and Pakistan view each others’ states differently. If yes, we could well say that relations between the two countries are on the right path. I doubt if that’s the case. Constructivism itself acknowledges that once state identities and interests get institutionalised over time, constructing new identities and interests becomes exceedingly difficult. This is precisely the case with Pakistan and India. Moreover, on the Pakistani side, there’s an irreconcilable actor — the military-jihadi complex (MJC) — whose dominance of the affairs in Pakistan rests on being anti-India. Constructivism hasn’t hit the MJC yet. Many attempts to redefine state interests and identities have been cut short by terrorist attacks engineered by the MJC. On the Indian side, new state identities and interests are being constructed, but not in a direction that leads towards peace between the two countries. For example, the recurring rhetoric of taking back Gilgit Baltistan, and viewing partition as unfinished business prevent a reset in ties. Finally, reconstructing interests and identities would require consistent positive actions. Pakistan allowing India-Afghanistan trade over its land and India making J&K a full state again might be two good starts. HomeWorkReading and listening recommendations on public policy matters[Article] Book review of Yael Tamir’s Why Nationalism by Nick Cohen in The Guardian: “The rise of nationalism – a product of the left’s embrace of globalism – can be a benevolent force, according to this ‘wine-bar’ polemic. Nick Cohen begs to differ”. [Podcast] A Puliyabaazi on the Quad with Times of India Diplomatic Editor, Indrani Bagchi.[Report] The University of Chicago’s Kalven Committee Report on the University’s Role in Political and Social Action is a must-read given what’s happening in India. Raghuram Rajan mentions this report in his note on Pratap Bhanu Mehta’s resignation. Get on the email list at publicpolicy.substack.com
This newsletter is really a public policy thought-letter. While excellent newsletters on specific themes within public policy already exist, this thought-letter is about frameworks, mental models, and key ideas that will hopefully help you think about any public policy problem in imaginative ways. It seeks to answer just one question: how do I think about a particular public policy problem/solution?Welcome to the mid-week edition in which we write essays on a public policy theme. The usual public policy review comes out on weekends.PS: If you enjoy listening instead of reading, we have this edition available as an audio narration on all podcasting platforms courtesy the good folks at Ad-Auris. If you have any feedback, please send it to us.- RSJThe farmers protesting against the three new farm laws (“Farm Laws 2020”) have entered into the seventh round of negotiations with the Union government. We have discussed these laws a few times here, here and here. For a moment, leave the laws aside and focus on the protests. Not the conspiracy theories about who is funding them and what their ‘real’ agenda is. But on how protests work. I had a few questions as I thought about them.Why do some issues generate protest over others?Take the last couple of months in India. We have the new farm laws that seek to open up the markets for farmers to freely sell their produce. The economic conditions of our farmers under the APMC mandis and MSP regime need no retelling. The new laws are new only for India. In most parts of the world, this is normal. Yet we have protests that have built up quite a steam. Now contrast this with the Prohibition of Unlawful Conversion of Religion Ordinance that the UP Assembly passed in November. This so-called love jihad law is being sought to be replicated in other states like Himachal Pradesh, MP, Haryana and Karnataka. The provisions under these laws (which are quite similar across the states) fly in the face of the fair, liberal and democratic order that India has enshrined in its constitution. There is a subversion of the individual right to freedom of religion, free will and of the fundamental legal principle on who bears the burden of proof. And it isn’t as if there weren’t existing laws to curb forced mass conversions in these states. These laws have only one purpose – to strengthen the strawman about a global Islamic conspiracy to turn India into a Muslim majority state. Demographics, arithmetic, or logic militate against this strawman. But the strawman has been created and now it is about demolishing it to prove the effectiveness of the regime. So, what explains the absence of any mass protests against questionable love jihad laws while there are protests against farm laws that most political parties had in their manifestos in the past?There are two possible reasons for this. First, for any protest to start there is a need for a core group that feels aggrieved by an issue and questions the fairness of the actions of the state or the society. Both the points are critical – a sense of hurt and a moral basis to question the action that has created it. Second, the core group has to have a long-held common identity that’s clearly defined. It isn’t an identity that has been formed only because of the issue on hand. Now let’s use this to look at love jihad laws. Is there a core group that’s aggrieved by this? Muslim youth? Not really. The idea that there’s an organised group of Muslims being trained to woo Hindu girls in some kind of love academy and then sent out to marry them and Islamise India is in the realm of fantasy. As a strategy, it’s plain stupid with high investment and low returns. There’s no ‘superhit formula’ for wooing girls and Hindu girls aren’t waiting to be picked while having no agency of their own. So, there won’t be any Muslim or Hindu protest against these laws. As an aside, this was different in case of the Citizenship Amendment Act. There you had a core group (of Muslims citizens) who had a reason to be aggrieved and a moral basis to protest. On love jihad laws, the only group aggrieved would be those who believe in liberal values of freedom and justice. They will question the fairness of it. But does this group of ‘liberals’ have a long-held common identity? Not exactly. Most liberals can’t agree on the definition of liberals itself, forget about forging a common identity. So, don’t expect mass protests against a genuinely bad law anytime soon. Also, expect more of such laws in future that play the dog-whistle to the base without any protests from any group. Things are a bit different with farm laws. There’s a core group of farmers in Punjab and Haryana (and possibly in western U.P.) that benefit from the MSP regime who are agitated by these laws. That they – farmers whose toil ensures food on our table – are being given short shrift gives them a moral basis to protest. Finally, as farmers, they have a common identity around which they have organised, politically or otherwise, on numerous occasions in the past. So, you will have protests from this group.That brings us to the next question. What creates momentum for a protest?Protests are started by a small, core group of protesters. The economic rationale is simple. The costs of protesting – organising, the opportunity cost of time and the likely threat of state violence – is weighed by them against foregoing existing benefits or incurring new losses (tangible or intangible). The initial group of protesters tend to be those who stand to lose the most. This loss outweighs the costs especially the threat of state violence which could be high for a small band of initial protesters. As the protest gets going, a positive network effect comes into play. Every new member joining the protest has a lower marginal cost than the previous member since the costs of organising and of state violence is now spread over more people. But the benefits remain the same. Or increase because the probability of a protest being successful increases with more members joining it. The positive network effect is relatively easier to create in the radically networked societies we inhabit now. Once the costs and benefits are articulated clearly, the dissemination costs through social media can be almost zero. Two other factors influence the momentum. One, the ability of protesters to broaden their support base without diluting the focus of their objectives. This is a delicate balance and often protests fail in treading this line. Not broadening the base runs the risk of the momentum of protest fizzling out eventually since the state can play the patience game for longer than protesters. But adding too many allies who might bring in their own issues into the mix and then speak in multiple voices can derail the original cause of the protest. The great mass protests of Indian independence (Non-cooperation or Quit India movements) are fine examples of getting this balance right. Two, the ability of the state to run a counter-narrative about the protest and undercut the support base. The democratic states aren’t usually great in doing this since their response time is significant when compared to the speed of a radically networked group. However, a more authoritarian state can compete with a counter-narrative through mainstream media and through its own radically networked base which is ready and can respond quickly. The current farmers’ protest has two problems in creating momentum. The positive network effect hasn’t taken shape in states beyond Punjab and Haryana. A likely reason for this is the benefits of the APMC and MSP regime are restricted to those two states while farmers from other states don’t have any incentive to protest against the new laws. The other reason is possibly the poor articulation of the grievances of the farmers and its broadcast to the farmers across the country. This scenario is unlikely in current times of social networks. Finally, what does it take to make a protest successful?The state responds when the continuation of the protest threatens its core interest of perpetuating itself. The size and the spread of the protest could reach a critical mass in the calculation of the state where it could threaten a regime change. Or the protest derails the lives of ordinary citizens who then turn against the state. Reasonable states will act in advance of such a scenario. In most cases, the state partly accepts the moral basis for protests and arrives at a reasoned compromise or it lets it counternarrative undercut the protest and let time take its own course. Only in rare cases does a state accept the moral basis of the protest and go back on its stand. The protests we have seen in recent times (CAA, Article 370, farm laws) have seen this government use the counternarrative effectively. In fact, more than any other time in the past, this strength of the current regime will render most street protests ineffective. The protest on farm laws is a bit tricky since farmers account for 40-50 per cent of the voters in most states and have a history of mobilising themselves during elections. The narrative created in favour of the farm laws is strong and the limited appeal of the protests in other states has meant the government has stalled the protesters with multiple rounds of talks. Considering the limited geographic spread of the protests, the likely conclusion to these talks could be a few concessions made in the laws for these states. A full repeal of these laws is unlikely unless a groundswell of support for the protesters that’s so far missing emerges in the next few weeks. HomeWorkReading and listening recommendations on public policy matters[Article] Nathan Heller in The New Yorker: Is There Any Point To Protesting?[Article] Pratap Bhanu Mehta in The Indian Express on the farmers’ protests. Get on the email list at publicpolicy.substack.com
This newsletter is really a weekly public policy thought-letter. While excellent newsletters on specific themes within public policy already exist, this thought-letter is about frameworks, mental models, and key ideas that will hopefully help you think about any public policy problem in imaginative ways. It seeks to answer just one question: how do I think about a particular public policy problem/solution?PS: If you enjoy listening instead of reading, we have this edition available as an audio narration courtesy the good folks at Ad-Auris. If you have any feedback, please send it to us.PolicyWTF: What Broke the Constitution’s Seventh Schedule?This section looks at egregious public policies. Policies that make you go: WTF, Did that really happen?— Pranay KotasthaneThe Seventh Schedule of the Consitution has three lists scoping out the responsibilities of the parliament and the state legislatures. List I contains the subject-matters over which the parliament has exclusive power to make laws (defence, foreign affairs, banking etc.). List II does the same for state legislatures (health, public order, water, land, agriculture). List III contains subject-matters on which both the parliament and state legislatures can legislate (education, forests etc.). Looks neat. Except that this assignment of powers hasn’t stopped union governments from designing and funding hundreds of schemes that squarely fall under List II — National Health Mission, Swachch Bharat Mission, Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana, to name a few. You would imagine that these schemes, known as Centrally Sponsored Schemes (CSS), would be opposed tooth and nail by state governments, right? Wrong. We’ve reached a low-level equilibrium where the state governments have grudgingly reconciled to the reality of CSS. They oppose it on paper or complain to Finance Commissions but are also happy to receive funds as part of these union government-sponsored schemes. And so, successive union governments have continued to misuse Article 282 of the Constitution — which permits union and states to make grants for any ‘public purpose’ regardless of where that purpose lies in the seventh schedule — to interfere with state subject-matters. With no clear effective assignment of responsibilities, it is not surprising that people expect prime ministers to provide them with water supplies, public order, and clean streets, none of which are union government subjects. Without a clear assignment, there is no way to fix accountability. Without accountability, citizen preferences don’t matter. The State does what it can and citizens endure because they must. In short, the Seventh Schedule is broken. As NK Singh, Chairman of the 15th Finance Commission argues: there’s a need to change the Seventh Schedule and Article 282, both. Absent that, we will keep CSS proliferating depending on how populist a union government wants to be. At present, there are approximately 211 schemes and sub-schemes under the 29 umbrella CSS!For more, read:Ten Little Schemes, my article for PragatiChapter 5, Review of Inter-Governmental Transfers and Consolidated Public Finance, Report of the Fourteenth Finance Commission, Volume 1.Rationalising Central Schemes, The Financial Express, M Govinda RaoIndia Policy Watch #1: Missing Artists in Our PolityInsights on burning policy issues in India— RSJThe farmers’ protests are now into their third week. The Union government seems to be in the mood for talks with farmer leaders now; after trying out the other alternatives, namely, barricading road, lathi-charging and using water cannons in cold Delhi winter. We aren’t sure about the kind of compromise that will be worked out. The track record of the government in arriving at a common ground isn’t great. That we have fluffed our lines on reforms in a sector that needs them direly is quite incredible. It is starker when you consider the numerous expert committees in the past that have recommended exactly what the new agriculture laws aim to achieve. These recommendations have had broad-based support from most political parties and even made their way into their election manifestos. With such support and history, you’d expect we would have got these much-needed reforms off the ground. Yet we are struggling with it. It’s an object lesson in public policy implementation.A Reform Whose Time Has ComeWe have made our arguments in support of farm reforms before. No one can claim with conviction our agriculture policies have been a success since independence. The entire agriculture value chain – from pricing, storage, distribution and purchase – has been in a regulatory chokehold that was designed during the early 60s. Faced with successive failures of monsoon and with the memory of famines (Bengal, particularly) still fresh, we had to seek US support to import food grains under the PL 480 scheme. The scars of that event led to the Green Revolution that saw a dramatic increase in agriculture productivity. Agriculture in India is a state subject. So, alongside the miracle of the Green Revolution, a majority of Indian states decided to enforce the Agricultural Produce and Market Regulation (APMR) to ensure food security. Soon, the purchase and the auction of food grains was restricted to the markets that were run by the state. The Agricultural Produce Market Committee (APMCs) and their mandis became the only legal buyer of the farmers’ produce. This was in keeping with the spirit of the times. The Indian state was in a massive expansion drive. It swallowed the whole of agriculture.What has the past half-a-century of this state control given us? It is important to summarise the points again to appreciate how the status quo cannot be the answer.We achieved food surplus by the early 80s, but we didn’t stop the Food Corporation of India (FCI) continue the practice of buying wheat and rice at Minimum Support Price (MSP). The MSPs have continued an upward trajectory ever since. Where are we today with this policy? The FCI godowns today are bursting at seams with about 100 million tonnes (MTs) of food grains as against the buffer requirement of about 40 MTs. The burden of supporting FCI procurement is a huge drain on the exchequer. The 2020 budget had set aside Rs 1.36 lakh crores as FCI borrowings to support the MSP regime. The unintended consequences of this borrowing on our fiscal health are a separate story. This is the price we pay to sustain MSP.The farmers of Punjab and Haryana who constitute the bulk of protesters have a reason to feel aggrieved with the dismantling of the current system. Take rice for example. Only about 12 per cent of farmers benefit from MSP in India. That same number is north of 90 per cent in Punjab and in a similar range in Haryana. MSP support to rice has created a scenario where a primarily wheat eating region like Punjab is the biggest producer of rice in the country. This coupled with free electricity to farmers has meant a significant reduction in groundwater levels in these states. The narrow focus on these two food grains has meant we run a deficit in other crops including dals, oilseeds and other cash crops. We import these while continuing to produce surplus rice and wheat every year. The local variety of grains that are hardy and require less water (jowar, bajra and ragi) have all but disappeared from our plates over the years. Separately, the desire to raise two crops every year leads to farmers in Punjab burn their stubble. This adds to Delhi’s gas-chamber like pollution. Lesson: incentives matter and negative externalities are real.The Essential Commodities Act (ECA) that runs in parallel with the APMC makes things worse. The Union government periodically imposes stock holding limits for various grains and takes away the market flexibility to manage supply-demand swings. This has meant there are no organised sector entities in the agriculture supply chain to manage the storage. No wonder tur dal or onion prices skyrocket at various times in the year. Our retail inflation sways to these price movements. The upshot of it all? Agriculture with about 16 per cent contribution to our GDP supports about 60 per cent of our population. Less than 1 per cent of farmers own 10 hectares of land that can be considered optimal to pursue agriculture as an enterprise. The rest are in subsistence farming. Like we have asked before, how can anyone argue to continue with this system?How Not To ReformDespite this, we seem to be in a situation where we have to negotiate and may be dilute the three bills that sought to reform the farm sector. The bills allowed the sale of farm produce to players outside APMC, relaxed stocking restrictions under the ECA and enabled contract farming. The problem was correctly diagnosed, and the right solution offered. So, what could go wrong?Agriculture is a state subject. Any big reform needs consultations with state governments, farmers, and the opposition. Since a broad consensus on these reforms had emerged from the reports of various expert panels over the years, this could have been a process less fraught than what has been seen in the case of GST or other reforms that needed a federal consensus. Yet there were no deliberations. The manner of passing the bill especially in Rajya Sabha where a debate was avoided, and a voice vote was used to pass them through betrayed a lack of faith in parliamentary procedures.There is a strong desire for a big reveal that underlines the way the PM operates. This is how all key measures – from demonetisation, amending Article 370, CAA and labour reforms – have been announced and then pushed through. The desire to stun the nation with a bold move is seen to be the key to make a decision. This doesn’t help in managing change that big reforms entail. There is wider anxiety among the impacted stakeholders if things aren’t discussed and deliberated. This is further stoked by the minority that wants to stonewall these reforms. The opposition also latched on to this opportunistically. That’s how this has played out. Then the usual bogey of big corporates (Ambani and Adani) was raised. There’s always a currency for this in India.The desire and speed for a bold move have invariably meant poor anticipation of unintended consequences of these reforms. Clauses that can only be called illiberal have seen their way through these laws including those where the executive is given powers to adjudicate with no remedial mechanism to appeal against the decision in civil courts. This won’t stand in any court of law.Lastly, when confronted with the first signs of protests, the entire playbook of how not to manage protests was put into action. First, the police force was deployed to break the protests. Then the protesters were dismissed as rich farmers or middlemen protecting their turf. Finally, they were branded terrorists and anti-nationals before some mediation was attempted. Missing Artists? The unfortunate outcome of this might be the wrong lessons we will learn for future – that reforms are difficult to implement. Further, as Pratap Bhanu Mehta writes in the Indian Express there is a greater loss to the polity that’s likely:“Chances are that, for the moment, given its overwhelming power, the government will ride out the protests. But the simmering discontent will remain. Cooperative federalism is in tatters, and the weakness of political parties means protests now take an amorphous form. Given the far-reaching changes we need in agriculture in Punjab, it is important that the trust between the state and the farmer remains. A good faith dialogue that gives the farmers reasonable assurances and a face-saver is necessary. It is easy for the government to win. But how many times in Indian politics have we won short-term victories that create long-term political precariousness?”Over the years we have gotten used to the many reasons why we haven’t seen structural reforms gather pace in India. These have ranged from coalition compulsions, lack of majority in both houses, absence of political will, obstructionist opposition or ‘too much democracy’. As the farm reforms saga shows, these are mere ruses. Politics is the art of possible. And we are missing those artists. India Policy Watch #2: Lessons for Politics in Radically Networked SocietiesInsights on burning policy issues in India— Pranay KotasthaneBeyond the specifics of India’s agriculture, some broader lessons come out of the ongoing logjam for politics and policymaking. Some quick intuitions here: Vocal Local is also the Global. The Canadian PM’s comments are an indication of a broader trend. No political issue is purely “internal” to a State anymore, at least as far as narrative-building is concerned. With networked communities, this trend will become stronger as outrage is the new form of entertainment. A corollary is that stakeholders with more narrative power but little interest in the issue can end up setting the narrative. Just like the ISI using this issue to fan Khalistani separatism again.Popular governments will try to bypass parliaments in crises citing the need for fast-tracking reforms in the backdrop of COVID-19.More of the same. No statement or action by the government and the opposition suggests a realisation that they aren’t willing to come together to tide over India’s first recession after 40 years. Unfortunate.HomeWorkReading and listening recommendations on public policy matters[Article] Sandip Das on “A fiscal crisis: Why FCI needs provisioning in food subsidy”[Podcast] On Puliyabaazi, Saurabh and Pranay speak to Gunwant Patil of the Shetkari Sangathana Farmers’ Movement on the three farm laws.If you like the kind of things this newsletter talks about, consider taking up the Takshashila Institution’s Post Graduate Programme in Public Policy (PGP) course. It’s a 48-week in-depth online course meant for working professionals. Applications for the Jan 2021 cohort are now open. For more details, check here. Get on the email list at publicpolicy.substack.com
This newsletter is really a weekly public policy thought-letter. While excellent newsletters on specific themes within public policy already exist, this thought-letter is about frameworks, mental models, and key ideas that will hopefully help you think about any public policy problem in imaginative ways. It seeks to answer just one question: how do I think about a particular public policy problem/solution?PS: If you enjoy listening instead of reading, we have this edition available as an audio narration courtesy the good folks at Ad-Auris. If you have any feedback, please send it to us.PolicyWTF: One Nation, One ElectionThis section looks at egregious public policies. Policies that make you go: WTF, Did that really happen?— Pranay KotasthaneThe series “One Nation, One X”, like another sitcom Tarak Mehta Ka Ooltah Chashmah, doesn’t seem to end. The latest season of the series is titled One nation, One election (ONOE). PM Narendra Modi has batted for this idea on many occasions before. In his latest pitch, he said:Elections are held at different places every few months, the impact it has on development works is known to all. Therefore, it is a must to have deep study and deliberation on ‘One Nation, One Election’.This speech apart, the most robust defence of ONOE comes from a NITI Aayog discussion paper by Bibek Debroy and Kishore Desai. They cite four reasons. Let us investigate the top two.Reason #1: Imposition of Model Code of Conduct by the Election Commission derails development programs and governanceAccording to this view, political parties, once in power, are brimming with development ideas but are not able to do so, that too for considerable periods, because of repeated elections. This view is shared by many people outside the government as well.The discussion paper tries to estimate the development time lost because of elections. Based on a projection that at least two states go to elections in India every year the authors conclude:“Assuming the average period of operation of Model Code of Conduct as 2 months during election to a State Assembly, development projects and programs (that of State Governments going to polls and of Union Government in those states) may potentially get hit every year and that too for about one-third (four months) of the entire time available for implementing such projects and programs. Such a situation is completely undesirable and needs serious deliberations and appropriate corrective measures.”Sounds quite serious. But hang on. There are several problems with this assessment.One, if the Model Code of Conduct is the problem, it can be changed either by shortening the length of the moratorium or by relaxing the kinds of developmental activities permitted during the election season. Even in its current form, the government can consult the Election Commission about the developmental works it plans to undertake and if they are deemed to not have electoral implications, they are allowed to continue. I’m in favour of removing these restrictions altogether. If a government wants to use developmental activities to lure its voters, it’s more than welcome to do so. If the government is promising freebies to distort voter choices, it can do so even today, just before the Model Code of Conduct comes into place. Two, the claim that developmental activities get stalled for four months a year is misleading. That’s because the code of conduct applies only to the state where elections are to be held. There’s no reason why developmental activities need to stall in all other states. Moreover, it’s useful to see the development period lost over a five year period. Assuming that one Lok Sabha election gets held between two state assembly elections over five years, the total “developmental time lost” in the state is six months. That’s an average one-tenth of a year, not one-third.Three, this “developmental time lost” argument sounds a lot like the dog ate my homework excuse. For one, governments know when the next elections are due and can reasonably plan their developmental works taking this ex-ante information into consideration. Secondly, and this is the bigger issue, this view relegates elections to a begrudgingly necessary event; a mere obstacle blocking the grand developmental vision of the party or the leader in power. Reason #2: Frequent elections lead to massive expenditures by governments and other stakeholdersThe NITI Aayog paper claims:Elections lead to huge expenditures by various stakeholders. Every year, the Government of India and/or respective State Governments bear expenditures on account of conduct, control and supervision of elections. Besides the Government, candidates contesting elections and political parties also incur huge expenditures. The candidates normally incur expenditures on account of various necessary aspects such as travel to constituencies, general publicity, organizing outreach events for electorates etc. while the political parties incur expenditures to run the party’s electoral machinery during elections, campaigning by star leaders and so on.While this is true, “massive” expenditures need to be unpacked. The first component is the government expenditure in conducting elections. The 2014 Lok Sabha elections cost 3870 crores i.e. an expense of 0.03 per cent of India’s 2014 GDP once every five years. State elections for a large state like Bihar cost a tenth of this amount i.e. 0.003 per cent of India’s 2014 GDP every five years. Even if we assume all states require the same amount as Bihar did, India would be spending 0.12 per cent of India’s 2014 GDP over a period of five years, all state assemblies and Lok Sabha elections combined. Clearly, this number is not unaffordable. It can’t be the primary motivation for undertaking a constitutional amendment exercise fraught with unintended consequences. The other component of the cost is spending by political parties and candidates. While the latter is capped to laughably low numbers (Rs 70 lakh for Lok Sabha and Rs 28 lakhs for state assembly elections), there’s no cap on the former. The paper claims that taken together, this component amounted to Rs 30,000 crores for the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. This is indeed a worrying number, more so because the expenditure is often in the form of freebies and vote for cash exchanges. But, arguing that conducting simultaneous elections will fix this problem is an admission by political parties that they will not change their ways; it’s just that they will engage in this simultaneous corruption once every five years. Fixing election expenditure requires many urgent solutions but a simultaneous election is not one of them. Besides these two reasons, there are other counterarguments that I haven’t considered at all. For example, there is a correlation between a higher percentage of electoral wins for national parties as against regional parties when Lok Sabha and state assembly elections are held together. There are also severe repercussions on India’s federal structures as state governments falling before completion of the five year period might have to be placed under the charge of caretaker governments or state governors. Regardless, what this limited analysis shows is that even the two reasons given in favour of simultaneous elections don’t hold water. We don’t need One Nation, One Election. India Policy Watch #1: RBI And Banking Licenses— RSJThe Internal Working Group (IWG) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) last week came out with draft report that recommended a calibrated entry of industrial houses into the banking sector and for conversion of large NBFCs into banks. The usual brouhaha followed. But hidden in the brouhaha is an important lesson about the interplay between political and economic institutions. We will come to it later. First, the brouhaha. Always A Bad IdeaThe camp against the idea of entry of corporates into Banking was led by the formidable duo of Raghuram Rajan and Viral Acharya. In a LinkedIn post titled – “Do we really need Indian corporations in banking?” – they laid out their reservations in no uncertain terms including an innuendo here and a wink there. It covered the usual grounds – risks of connected lending where a corporate house will raise cheap deposits from ordinary citizens and finance their businesses without due diligence; further concentration of economic power among few corporates in a country that’s fast turning oligopolistic and the need for the government to find more bidders when it begins privatisation of PSU banks that it can’t fund any longer.“First, industrial houses need financing, and they can get it easily, with no questions asked, if they have an in-house bank. The history of such connected lending is invariably disastrous – how can the bank make good loans when it is owned by the borrower? Even an independent committed regulator, with all the information in the world, finds it difficult to be in every nook and corner of the financial system to stop poor lending.”“The second reason to prohibit corporate entry into banking is that it will further exacerbate the concentration of economic (and political) power in certain business houses. Even if banking licenses are allotted fairly, it will give undue advantage to large business houses that already have the initial capital that has to be put up. Moreover, highly indebted and politically connected business houses will have the greatest incentive and ability to push for licenses.”“One possibility is that the government wants to expand the set of bidders when it finally turns to privatizing some of our public sector banks. It would be a mistake, as we have said in an earlier paper, to sell a public sector bank to an untested industrial house.”Do We Need More Banks?The short answer is yes. Look at India’s ambitions. A 5 trillion economy by 2025 that’s a global economic powerhouse. Keep your dose of realism aside for a moment. If India has to even make a fist of this ambition, it needs a robust, deep and competitive banking sector. What do we have today? A total of maybe six and a half large banks that have the capital, management strength and the ambition to support this vision. India is still severely underbanked. Credit to GDP is about 56 per cent which is woefully short of what a fast-growing economy needs. PSU banks that fanned out into the interiors hardly built a deposit base or managed to support enterprise at scale outside of urban centres. Despite such modest achievements, almost every PSU bank has drained taxpayers’ money with very little to show for. Turning PSUs around is nigh impossible. It is easy to recommend professionalising the management but there’s no easy way to achieve it. The government has mixed up its role of being a regulator, shareholder and the management. All sorts of conflicts of interest follow. The benefits of running PSU banks are concentrated among bureaucrats, employee unions and politicians who use them to pump prime the economy when it is politically expedient. The costs are diffused among millions of taxpayers. No wonder the market cap of all PSU banks put together is smaller than the biggest private sector bank. Is there really an alternative to big businesses or large NBFCs (many of whom have corporate houses as promoters) to support India’s ambitions? Who else has the ability to bring in patient capital and support a bank for a period of time in future?Fait Accompli?So, does this mean we will soon have corporate houses being issued bank licenses? In my opinion that’s unlikely unless government really nudges the RBI in that direction. I have my reasons:In the current dispensation itself, many NBFCs could have applied for banking license over the last five years. But they haven’t. Why? The capital requirements needed to run a bank are very different from that of an NBFC. That apart, the NBFCs face far relaxed regulatory oversight than banks. No wonder none of the NBFCs have touched it with a barge pole over the years.RBI will have to change the Banking Act, 1949 through a bill passed in the Parliament. Following that there will be a ‘fit and proper’ filter that will be with the RBI to decide on who to give the license. The IWG report suggests some of these will be made more onerous for the applicants.This is still a political hot potato. There are many voices within the government who might not be comfortable with this. The pressure group of unions, bureaucrats and opinion makers still wield significant power to block the entry of corporate houses.RBI will continue to make it very difficult for anyone applying the bank licenseSo, what’s happening here? Why is RBI coming out with a paper for allowing corporates in Banks while simultaneously making the criteria impossible to achieve. A Balancing ActRBI as an economic institution understands the need for more banks in India. But it does not believe the political institutions in India will be able to manage the conflict of interest inherent in having large corporates as banks. So on one hand it wants to show the political leadership it is supporting their aspirations in ambitions by re-looking at the guidelines for new licenses while making the conditions of the guidelines so onerous that it will make the license unattractive for an industrial house.For nations to succeed (like Acemoglu and Robinson have argued), its institutions have to be strong. In my view, a nation has to have its political and economic institutions in sync with another. It is difficult for it to have its political institutions extractive, exclusionary and rent-seeking while its economic institutions are liberal and inclusive; and yet succeed in the long run. Having an extractive and exclusionary political institution while continuing to work with economic institutions that are free and inclusive is an unstable equilibrium. Sooner or later, the extractive nature of one type of institutions casts its long shadow on everything. The post-independent history of India speaks to this phenomenon. Following Independence, India chose a model where its political institutions were by design inclusive and liberal while its economic institutions came to be dominated by the state. In the late 60s, Indira Gandhi found it expedient to double down on the state control of economy in order to consolidate herself politically. This led to the nationalisation of various sectors including that of banks. As this domination and undermining of economic institutions turned complete, the political institutions couldn’t stay beyond it. The judiciary became subservient, roles like governors of state turned into rubber stamps, Article 356 was liberally used to dismiss state governments at slightest of pretexts and most independent institutions were packed with sycophants. No surprise then this culminated into the emergency of 1975. The crisis of having both political and economic institutions that were extractive reached a point of no return by 1991. That’s when we decided to take a sharp turn away on how we’d like to manage our financial situation. The state reduced its control on factors of production, multiple independent regulators were born and a relativity free market came in to play. The feedback loop of the liberalisation of economic institutions soon started coming up against the extractive nature of political institutions. Through some fortunate circumstances of coalition politics, enlightened leadership and favourable global conditions, the political institutions began to change in the image of the liberal economic institutions. This was reflected in a more active election commission, laws like RTI being passed and the courts actively preserving the liberties of the citizenry. However, over the last decade or so, the political institutions in India have turned the clock back on being extractive. Electoral victories on the back of a strong leader, a decimated opposition and the power of majoritarian politics have meant we have reversed the gains we made post-liberalisation on making our political institutions freer. As the feedback loops in, the economic institutions are starting to corrode. This is where RBI finds itself today. It still is a free and liberal institution that’s walking the tightrope between a democratic mandate (that the government represents) and its own independent thinking. The draft IWG report in that sense is its stand. It will play ball yet not play it at the same time. It is anyone’s guess how long it can continue to do so. The right solution of course is to go back to the path of strong, free and inclusive political AND economic institutions. But that doesn’t look likely anytime soon. It is a lost opportunity. India Policy Watch #2: Farmers’ ProtestsInsights on burning policy issues in India— Pranay KotasthaneWe warned in edition #70:Any reform that is even remotely seen to impact the MSP gravy train is bound to face opposition from a host of incumbent beneficiaries. One, the farmers growing the 22 crops backed by the MSP. Two, the traders getting a percentage of the MSP. And three, the state governments making money by charging hefty commissions for the sale of produce at APMCs. None of this is surprising.That apart, we mentioned two critiques merit serious attention: one, the timing of these reforms amidst the worst economic crisis in decades meant that the government needed to align the cognitive maps of those losing out. Two, the government fostered suspicions because the three farm laws said nothing about the impact on the existing procurement price mechanisms.Unfortunately, the anticipated unintended consequences have played out according to the script above. Farmers in Punjab and Haryana are agitating while the government has not come out with a reconciliatory offer yet. As usual, Pratap Bhanu Mehta’s article takes the long view. He writes:“Given the far-reaching changes we need in agriculture in Punjab, it is important that the trust between the state and the farmer remains. A good faith dialogue that gives the farmers reasonable assurances and a face-saver is necessary. It is easy for the government to win. But how many times in Indian politics have we won short-term victories that create long-term political precariousness?”Just like the GST compensation cess issue, the union government has pushed through a big change without getting other political parties or state governments onboard. These specific reforms might still go through but future negotiations will become even more difficult. Parties to the table will come with ossified positions. That’s a precursor to policy paralysis. We have seen this movie before.In the crisis situation we find ourselves in, it is all the more important that the union government’s reform agenda should factor in distributional consequences of those losing out. The government needs to build bridges. Politics, after all, is the art of the possible, as Bismarck said.HomeWorkReading and listening recommendations on public policy matters[Podcast]: Acemoglu talks with Russ Roberts on why institutions matter.[Article]: Jagdeep Chokkar and Sanjay Kumar make a solid case against simultaneous polls.[Podcast]: In the second Puliyabaazi episode on Indian banking history, Amol Agrawal shares fascinating insights on princely state banking, the feud with the State Bank of Pakistan, priority sector lending, and lots more.[Article]: Mohammad Taqi in TheWire writes how “Pakistan’s Islamisation started almost a decade before its birth, and long before any army dictator or adventurist general came along.” Even Pakistan didn’t become Pakistan all of a sudden. Something for us to reflect on in India. If you like the kind of things this newsletter talks about, consider taking up the Takshashila Institution’s Post Graduate Programme in Public Policy (PGP) course. It’s a 48-week in-depth online course meant for working professionals. Applications for the Jan 2021 cohort are now open. For more details, check here. Get on the email list at publicpolicy.substack.com
This newsletter is really a weekly public policy thought-letter. While excellent newsletters on specific themes within public policy already exist, this thought-letter is about frameworks, mental models, and key ideas that will hopefully help you think about any public policy problem in imaginative ways. It seeks to answer just one question: how do I think about a particular public policy problem/solution?PS: If you enjoy listening instead of reading, we have this edition available as an audio narration courtesy the good folks at Ad-Auris. If you have any feedback, please send it to us.India Policy Watch #1: Production-Linked Incentives Insights on burning policy issues in India— Pranay KotasthaneProduction-Linked Incentives (PLI) — that’s the name the government’s recent, most-favourite industrial policy instrument goes by. It seems elegant on paper: the government will reward companies for incremental sales of manufactured goods with a subsidy. More the sales (either domestic or exports), more the subsidy amount. The intent seems sound too: encourage companies to up their manufacturing game. First introduced for the electronics sector earlier in the year, PLIs worth ₹2 lakh crore for ten disparate sectors over the next five years were announced by the Union Cabinet earlier this month. These sectors are automobiles and auto components, pharmaceutical drugs, advanced chemistry cells (ACC), capital goods, technology products, textile products, white goods, food products, telecom and specialty steel.Let’s assume that the size of the incentive is big enough to change companies’ investment decisions at the margin (that’s a big if). What are the consequences likely to be in that case? Can we anticipate some unintended consequences beforehand? Let’s parse this policy through the framework discussed in edition #48. Three unintended effects are possible:“Reasonable regulation drifts toward overregulation, especially if the costs of overregulation are not perceptible to those who bear them.” The PLI scheme for the electronics sector has specific eligibility criteria both on incremental investment and incremental sales a company needs to commit over the next five years. This is supposed to be cross-checked by a Project Management Agency (PMA), a government-body formed under the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY). The PMA will further submit its recommendations to an Empowered Committee (EC) composed of CEO NITI Aayog, Secretary Economic Affairs, Secretary Expenditure, Secretary MeitY, Secretary Revenue, Secretary DPIIT and DGFT which will make the final decision. The EC is also empowered to revise anything — subsidy rate, eligibility criteria, and target segments. In short, more bureaucracy and predictably unpredictable delays. The speed of incremental investments might get decided by the speed of government decision-making. EC’s powers to make any changes to this policy in the future is also filled with possibilities of regulation becoming overregulation. There’s one more gap. In order to increase innovation, the PLI scheme will not consider incremental investments towards land and buildings towards the eligibility criteria. Only investment towards plant, machinery, equipment, research, and development is allowed. This might incentivise companies to fudge their land dealings and for government officers verifying the real quantum of incremental investments to cut deals for themselves.“Moral hazard increases.” The ten sectors chosen by the government might see a crowding-in of investment at the cost of all other sectors. Are these ten industries strategic for India while others aren’t? I don’t quite know the basis of this selection.Next, every policy move has an associated opportunity cost. It’s a bane of Indian policymaking that policy decisions are rationalised solely by looking at projected benefits; by ignoring opportunity costs. In the context of PLIs, the government needs to pay up ₹2 lakh crore over the next five years to a few companies in these ten sectors. The government will most likely rake in this revenue in the form of taxes. Using the Kelkar/Shah Marginal Cost of Public Funds (MCPF) estimate for India of 3, the total cost to India from this subsidy would be of the order of ₹6 lakh crore. The scheme would make sense if the benefits are projected to be higher than this number. Whether an analysis of these costs has been taken into account, we don’t know.“Rent-seekers distort the program to serve their own interests”. Companies that benefit will seek to modify the eligibility criteria to suppress competition thus leading to more market concentration. They might even try to extend the sunset clause of this scheme in order to keep benefiting from the discount. These unintended consequences might substantially diminish the benefits that the PLI schemes are aiming at.What are the alternatives?Read this statement by the chairman of the India Cellular and Electronics Association (ICEA):“The disability stack runs deep in the economy. For example, the taxes on fuel. Second, electricity is not subsumed under GST (goods and services tax). So how do you become competitive?This is the key point. Perhaps PLIs are a much-needed band-aid solution for a wounded economy but it cannot transform manufacturing in India. Doing that would require consistent and simpler tax, policy, business, and trade environments. Improvements on these grounds will benefit all sectors and investments will follow sectors which show higher productivity. In other words, we’re still waiting for a reforms 2.0 agenda. India Policy Watch #2: The Many Hues Of CharismaInsights on burning policy issues in India— RSJThe recent Bihar election results confounded many. First, the consensus from multiple opinion and exit polls suggested a clear majority to the UPA. They got it wrong. Second, there was view the NDA coalition was going into the elections with a triple disadvantage – anti-incumbency, the particularly severe effect of lockdown on Bihari migrants and the disappointment among the youth about the economic progress in Bihar despite many years of promise. There was no regional face of the BJP to counter the rising popularity of Tejaswi Yadav. The pandemic also limited the ability of the NDA to field the PM and other star campaigners on the ground to mobilise the workers and make a case for their government. Despite such odds, the BJP had its best performance winning 74 seats out of the 121 it contested. What explains this? Politics of VishwaasThere are multiple theses here. The decision of AIMIM to field candidates across the state ‘cut’ the Muslim vote bloc is one. That women voted overwhelmingly in favour of the BJP is the other. These might have played a role in the electoral arithmetic but at a macro level the win reaffirms the strength of what Neelanjan Sircar has called the ‘politics of vishwaas’. As Sarkar writes:“…is a form of personal politics in which voters prefer to centralize political power in a strong leader, and trust the leader to make good decisions for the polity – in contrast to the standard models of democratic accountability and issue-based politics.”Sircar suggests two factors leading to this:“First, like much of the world, there is an increasingly strong axis of conflict between those who believe in a unitary (Hindu) national identity for India and those who view India in ‘multicultural’ terms. This obliges supporters of Hindu nationalism to support political centralization to stymie federalism, which would require negotiation across regional, linguistic, caste, and religious identities. Second, the BJP’s control of media and communication with the voter, in tandem with a strong party machinery, give the party structural advantages in mobilizing voters around the messages of Narendra Modi.”Vishwaas apart, the Bihar win suggests voters aren’t yet disappointed with the absence of achhe din the PM had promised in 2014. The charisma of the PM endures, and he’s still seen as an outsider upending the established order and the elites. This is a remarkable feat of narrative-building where even missteps like demonetisation or the severe lockdown are judged on their intent instead of their outcomes. The ‘politics of vishwaas’ is anchored on the personal charisma of the PM. So, how should we think about this charisma? There are several ways. Cometh The HourFirst, leaders build their charismatic appeal on the back of a deeply felt need in the society for change. In the run-up to 2014 general elections, two distinct needs coalesced. One, the simmering discomfort about how the constitution and its institutions had over the years infringed on the personal domain of Hindu lives while staying away from those of minorities (termed appeasement by many). Two, the shambolic performance of UPA 2 on economy driven by transactional corruption and policy paralysis. All societies have inherent in them a set of core beliefs that in tandem with everyday issues of roti, kapda and makaan drive their choices and actions. Often, they are in opposition. Sometimes they coincide as they did in 2014. Despite the liberal and secular constitution project that aimed at engineering a social revolution in post-independent India, the core belief, however suppressed, among the majority was always guided by their religion. This suppressed belief found a credible voice in the persona of PM Modi. They saw in him an agent of change who will restore personal belief and faith above the liberal ideas of the constitution. Those ideas were never in sync with our society anyway. Therefore, so long as there are actions that suggest progress on this axis – CAA, revocation of Article 370 and building of the temple in Ayodhya – the relatively poor performance on roti, kapda, makaan issues will not matter. Even a raging pandemic and a 23% shrinking of the economy in Q1 hasn’t mattered. Charismatic leaders emerge in times of great need and so long as they deliver on their core promises (even those unstated but commonly understood), they will retain their hold on their followers. Max Weber in his classic ‘On Charisma And Institution Building’ explained this eloquently:“Charisma knows only inner determination and inner restraint. The holder of charisma seizes the task that is adequate for him and demands obedience and a following by virtue of his mission. His success determines whether he finds them. His charismatic claim breaks down if his mission is not recognised by those to whom he feels he has been sent. If they recognise him, he is their master – so long as he knows how to maintain their recognition through ‘proving’ himself. But he does not derive his ‘right’ from their will, in the manner of an election. Rather the reverse holds: it is the duty of those to whom he addresses his mission to recognise him as their charismatically qualified leader.” Charisma Trumps Economic StructureThe somewhat forced reforms carried out by the PM in the last 18 months have challenged the status quo. The success of these reforms will depend on their implementation. The opposition has protested against a few of them especially the farm sector reforms. But barring pockets in Punjab and Haryana where the MSP economy looms large, there isn’t a groundswell of opinion against these reforms. Even the poorly thought-through reforms in labour and the swerve towards atmanirbhar Bharat have been difficult to counter. It is politically infeasible to defend the status quo while being in opposition. The ruling dispensation has taken on the mantle of change despite being in power for over 6 years. On the economy, the track record of this government is weak; yet PM Modi’s charisma stays above it. Pratap Bhanu Mehta writing in The Indian Express captures this well:“Despite economic headwinds, it has not been easy to use the economy as a point with which to attack the Modi government. It has still positioned itself as a breaker of the status quo. The opposition will have to think more intelligently about the political economy of protest to counter the new political economy of reform.”This is the unique feature of charisma. India Gandhi had it when she went about destroying the Indian economy to consolidate political gains in the early 70s. The mission of the charismatic leader subsumes everything else, even their glaring flaws. More so on economic matters. Weber had considered this in his ruminations on charisma and this is particularly applicable to the ‘fakir’ narrative that’s often associated with charismatic leaders in India: “In its economic sub-structure, as in everything else, charismatic domination is the very opposite of bureaucratic domination. If bureaucratic domination depends upon regular income, and hence at least a potiori on a money economy and money taxes, charisma lives in, thought not off, this world. This has to be properly understood. Frequently charisma quite deliberately shuns the possession of money and of pecuniary income per se… (charisma) always rejects as undignified any pecuniary gain that is methodical and rational. In general charisma rejects all rational economic conduct. ..In its purest form, charisma is never a source of private gains for its holders in the sense of economic exploitation by making of a deal. Nor is it a source of income in the form of pecuniary compensation, and just as little does it involve an orderly taxation for the material requirements of its mission. Pure charisma…. is the opposite of all ordered economy. It is the very force that disregards economy.” The Transfer Of CharismaThe primary challenge to a structure that’s based on charisma is in the determination of transfer of that authority. The transfer comes about through various means – bloodline (Nehru-Gandhi family), search (Dalai Lama), revelation (prophets) or through a new need for a change (Obama or Trump, PM Modi etc). The core question for BJP is what after 2024? Clearly, it’s difficult to see the PM continue for a third term after he turns 75. How will it transfer the charisma to an anointed successor? The work on it will begin soon. This won’t be easy. Because PM Modi hasn’t used his charisma to build institutions that will sustain it beyond his time. In his introduction to Weber’s Charisma and Institution Building, S.N. Eisenstadt writes: “… the test of any great charismatic leader lies not only in his ability to create a single event or great movement, but also in his ability to leave a continuous impact on an institutional structure – to transform any given institutional setting by infusing into it some of his charismatic vision, by investing the regular, orderly offices, or aspects of social organisations, with some of his charismatic qualities and aura.” This is where Nehru was a genius. For the opposition, the fact that Modi hasn’t been an institution builder in Nehru’s mould offers them their only ray of hope. That this charisma won’t transfer in the post-Modi polity. But till then the electorate will continue to confound pollsters. HomeWorkReading and listening recommendations on public policy matters[Article] Economists Ila Patnaik and Radhika Pandey on Production-Linked Incentives (PLI) scheme. [Article] India’s defence financing crunch can’t be solved by the Ministry of Defence alone. Lt Gen Prakash Menon and Pranay explain what needs to be done. [Podcast] If Business-State relations interest you, listen to this Puliyabaazi with Rohit Chandra.[Article]: ‘Can Democracy Handle Charisma?’ Review of David Bell’s Men on Horseback by Ian Beacock in the New Republic.That’s all from us, folks. In case Indian subcontinent geopolitics interests you, tune in for this event in context of the recently concluded elections in Myanmar. Get on the email list at publicpolicy.substack.com
India is facing two crises: coronavirus and China. Despite one of the toughest lockdowns in the world, the country has not been able to bring the pandemic under control. Hospitals in New Delhi are overwhelmed. Now a long-standing border dispute with China has turned deadly, with multiple Indian casualties reported. Gideon Rachman talks to Pratap Bhanu Mehta of Ashoka University about how the Modi government is handling the pandemic and the biggest foreign policy crisis the country has seen in decades. --- For more insight and analysis into how the coronavirus pandemic is changing global markets and geopolitics subscribe to the FT's Coronavirus Business Update. Follow this link to sign up and enjoy a 30-day trial to FT.com: https://www.ft.com/newsletter-signup/coronavirus?segmentId=5af4021f-9697-677a-32eb-b119977b2770 See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.
Yascha Mounk talks to Pratap Bhanu Mehta, one of India's foremost writers and intellectuals, about the rise of Narendra Modi, and the reasons for the crisis of liberal democracy in the country. Email: goodfightpod@gmail.com Twitter: @Yascha_Mounk Podcast production by John T. Williams Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Honored to be presenting this wonderful conversation with Yogesh that covers aspects like control of time, self-awareness, brain-food and better decision making. All of which will nudge you towards your passion and making it manifest. Here's a small write up by Yogesh for us - Reach out to Yogesh - https://www.facebook.com/yogesh.parmar Reach out to us - naagasubramanya@gmail.com / Twitter - @ThePassionPeop1 Everyday reading/unreading recommendation(s) for 2019. Twenty months back, I finally unsubscribed to the Times of India. Delighted to report a substantial, discernible and tangible reduction in everyday anxiety and existential angst. Do note that not reading it is not the same as not subscribing to it. I stopped reading TOI 3-4 years back but was loathe to unsubscribe because of habit and the fact that between 5-10% of the content was still worth its while. Here's the thing though. You cannot unknow something after you have known it. You cannot unread stuff. And heavens know, there is much we can do without knowing. What we know, can exhaust us. Newspapers, like everything else, have energy. The undesirable ones, like an abscess, can be a total drain. The presence of somethings may seem irrelevant, but prove to be harmful nevertheless. This has proved to be the a simple, zero effort, zero cost hack to improve my day - at a preternatural level. If meditation is proving to be too difficult, this may be your fix. The challenge with newspapers such as Times of India and its ilk is not the content. The content, whether trivial, farcical or comical is frankly, irrelevant. For anyone who has limited time, attention and bandwidth, here are -from a behavioral sciences perspective - five things for your consideration. (A) Creation of false binaries: Have you noticed how choices and decisions across a spectrum of subjects get hijacked by the clever creation of the 'other' in our minds - whether imagined or real? This other is then embellished with a narrative that is extreme and as a threat to the very survival of your way of life. Everything is Us versus Them. The deviousness of this strategy is outdone only by its astonishingly high hit rate. Keep shrinking the lowest common denominator with a new level of petulance and you will have an audience that is likely to miss the forest for the trees. (B) Echo-Chamber effect: Post - truth or not, we are being choicelessly led to embark on a one way journey from looking for evidence to seeking confirmation. Most news stories begin with a conclusion and end with supporting facts that fit the conclusion. Research has reached a point where data can be tortured to confess to any story you want to tell. The key words in our searches have inbuilt biases and on the internet you will find everything about everything. Everything is intuitive and counterintuitive at once. Add analytics to the game and you have passing for news is little more than confirmation bias. (C) Breathlessness in tonality : Everything is reported with a tone of voice that is designed to make you feel left out or hard done in life or both. Creating FOMO( Fear of Missing Out ) is at the very DNA of how a story is framed and reported. By way of example, one way of doing this is to be utterly facile and casual about a start up raising a few million dollars in seed or series A. The subliminal impact on the reader is that it was for there the taking and s/he missed the bus. The enthusiasm on offer when a start up raises that million dollar round in funding makes it seem as if that money was found under one's pillow upon waking up in the morning. Elsewhere, some newspapers are equal opportunity offenders. Everything from farmer suicides and economic growth figures to the opening weekend numbers of a film to five ways of fixing cellulite is reported with the same shrillness and without any discretion. There is a ton of research correlating increase in heart rate and intake of news. (D) Shallowness is the name of the game. This is a much larger and widely prevalent across other forms such as click bait portals, radio and news channels, but with the newspaper, the problem is magnified. The superficiality of the reporting dulls the imagination, provides no stimulus to the intellect, or challenge to an existing world view. In the medium term, it causes both stagnation and a sense of being stifled. By all means, talk about how baked potato ships fortified with omega fatty acids can improve heart health, but for what its worth, do it the rigor needed to torture data to confess that story. This is often conspicuous by its absence. (E) Language Heuristics: The less said about this, the better. Perhaps the single best thing that automation and bots will bring to the print media is the absence of utter howlers where language, usage, grammar and punctuation are concerned. You don't want your kids to pick up language from a sordid source. And so, onwards to recommendations : At one time and for a long time (10-12 years) I read between five and seven news papers everyday and had a dozen magazine subscriptions that would be devoured on arrival. Eventually, I realised that information is brain food and journalists are not only hunter - gatherers but sometimes, farmers too. The news paper is the supply chain/restaurant that brings the food to your door step. Depending on mainstream media because it's cheap is like depending on McDonalds for a balanced and nutritious diet. You want to be responsible, where possible, for the information you consume, know where it's grown, who cooked it, how qualified the chef is and whether they eat their own cooking. Here are some recommendations of everyday reading - across publications and columnists - that I do across politics, business, finance, technology, entrepreneurship, sports, spirituality, travel, cinema, liberal & performance arts, humour and behavioural sciences. Have read mostly everything by some of the folks in this list in the last decade. In no particular order, here goes : People: Santosh Desai. Manu Joseph. Pratap Bhanu Mehta. Natasha Badhwar. Mukul Kesavan. Aakar Patel. Baradwaj Rangan. Rohit Brijnath. Swaminathan Anklesaria Aiyar. Tim Ferriss. Haresh Chawla. James Altucher. James Clear. Vir Sanghvi. David Brooks. Mitali Saran. Nilanjana S Roy. T.S Ninan. Kaushik Basu. Anurag Behar. Osman Samiuddin. Sam Altman. Naval Ravikant.Jack Kornfield. Paul Graham. Arun Maira. Atul Gawande. Malcolm Gladwell. Kevin Rose. Sam Harris. Nassim Nicholas Taleb. David Eagleman. Yuval Noah Harari. Publications: Livemint. The NewYork Times. News Laundry. The Guardian. Farnam Street Blog. The Elephant Journal. BrainPickings. The Atlantic. Aeon. Harvard Business Review. The Cricket Monthly. Psychology today. Readers Digest. The Ken. The Caravan. The wire. NPS. Mint is the only print edition that I subscribe to. Five years and counting. It is by a country mile, the best broadsheet in the neck of the woods. Follow The Passion People Podcast on Twitter You can follow us and leave us feedback on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter @eplogmedia, For advertising/partnerships send you can send us an email at bonjour@eplog.media. If you like this show, please subscribe and leave us a review wherever you get your podcasts, so other people can find us. You can also find us on https://www.eplog.media/thepassionpeoplepodcast DISCLAIMER: The views expressed on all the shows produced and distributed by Ep.Log Media are personal to the host and the guest of the shows respectively and with no intention to harm the sentiments of any individual/organization. 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18 million people are estimated to work for the Indian national government, and that number doesn't include India's regional and state governments. Yet, compared to the size of the Indian population—1.3 billion—it's not very large. The biggest challenge for the Indian state is not its size, but its inefficiency. While the last three decades have seen dramatic transformations in the country's economy and the private sector, the state has failed to modernize at the same rate. Tom Carver talks the authors of a new book titled, Rethinking Public Institutions in India, Carnegie Senior Fellow Milan Vaishnav, Devesh Kapur and Pratap Bhanu Mehta, about the massive challenges India faces and the state's ability to adapt. Milan Vaishnav is the author of When Crime Pays: Money and Muscle in Indian Politics (Yale University Press and HarperCollins India, 2017). His work has also been published in scholarly journals such as India Review, India Policy Forum, and Latin American Research Review. He is a regular contributor to several Indian publications. (More on Vaishnav - http://carnegieendowment.org/experts/714) Devesh Kapur is the director of the Center for the Advanced Study of India, and a professor of political science and Madan Lal Sobti professor for the study of contemporary India at the University of Pennsylvania. (More on Kapur - https://casi.sas.upenn.edu/about/people/devesh) Pratap Bhanu Mehta is the president and chief executive of the Center for Policy Research in New Delhi and a contributing editor at the Indian Express. (More on Mehta - http://www.cprindia.org/people/pratap-bhanu-mehta)