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Latest podcast episodes about caeli ridge

Get Rich Education
554: How to Borrow Tax-Free Like a Billionaire

Get Rich Education

Play Episode Listen Later May 19, 2025 42:45


Keith discusses the mortgage landscape, emphasizing the benefits of cash-out refinances with Ridge Lending Group President, Caeli Ridge. They unpack the Trump administration's plan to privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which could impact the mortgage market. Investors are discovering powerful strategies to leverage property equity and optimize their financial portfolios. By understanding innovative borrowing techniques, savvy real estate investors can access tax-efficient capital and create sustainable wealth-building opportunities. Consider working with a lender that specializes in investor-focused loan products and provides comprehensive education on the options available.  Resources: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/554 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREinvestmentcoach.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai    Keith Weinhold  0:01   Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, we're talking about the mortgage loan landscape in this era. Is title insurance a rip off today? Is it worth it for you to pay discount points at the closing table to get a lower interest rate? Learn about how a cash out refinance. Is your ability to borrow tax free, much like a billionaire does, and what are the dramatic changes that the current administration could take to alter the mortgage environment for years, all today on get rich education.    Speaker 1  0:34   Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, who delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com   Corey Coates  1:20   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  1:36   Welcome to GRE from Liverpool, England to Livermore, California and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are listening to get rich education, the voice of real estate. Since 2014 it's been estimated that there are about 800 billionaires in USA, and hey, you might be one of them, but there's a pretty good chance that you aren't well. When it comes to lending and mortgages, you can actually take a page out of a billionaires playbook and do something very much like what they do whenever you perform a cash out refinance if you've got dead equity in a property, and you can borrow against your own home to a greater extent than you can against your rental properties, even either one of those is a tax free event, you've now got tax free cash, and you can use that money on anything from investing it in the stock market To using your proceeds for a down payment on more real estate or buying a boat or going to Disneyland, and you didn't have to relinquish your asset at all. You continue to hold on to the asset. Now, the mechanics are somewhat different, sure, but when you do a cash out refinance like this, it's a bit like billionaires borrowing against their stock. Instead, you're borrowing against the value of your real estate. In fact, listening to this short clip, it's Trevor Noah talking about how billionaires do exactly this, and you'll notice that the crowd laughs because it actually sounds funny that you can really do this,    Speaker 2  3:22   the shares that they hold in a company, because it is an unrealized gain, right? So they go like, yeah, you're worth 300 billion, but we can't tax you on those stocks because you haven't sold the shares, so you don't, like, have the money. And I understand the argument. They go like, No, you don't have it. It's just what it's worth, because it will also crash, and then you have nothing, so we can't tax you on it. Then I'm like, Okay, I understand that. Then Elon Musk offers to buy Twitter, all right? He offers to buy it. And then he says in his offer, he goes, I'm putting up my Tesla stock as collateral. Then I'm like, so you do have it? Then he's like, no, no, no, no, I don't have it. I don't have it. I'm just gonna say so then they accept the offer. He now buys Twitter. Now that they've accepted his offer, he now goes to private equity and banks and like other rich people and whatever. He goes like, can you guys borrow me the money to buy Twitter? And then he's like, I'm I want to buy Twitter because I don't want to sell any of my Tesla shares, so I want to use your money to buy Twitter. And then it's like, but then they're like, What are we loaning it against? And he's like, Well, my Tesla shares. Then I'm going, like, Wait, so, so you, you can, you can buy a thing based on what you have, yes, but when we want to tax you, you can say, I don't have it. Do you hear what I'm saying here?   Keith Weinhold  4:46   Yeah, you can borrow against your real estate if you have substantial equity in it. We'll talk about just how much now billionaires borrow against their stock holdings using financial products like portfolio lines of credit or. For securities based loans. These are the names for how they do it, essentially taking out loans and using their stock as collateral. And this allows them to access cash without selling their assets and without incurring capital gains taxes, much like you can so you can say that you don't want to sell your property in you don't have to go through some capital raising round either, like a billionaire might have to when they're borrowing against their stock. You can just have a more standard mortgage application for your cash out refinance, and you don't even have to have a huge portfolio. I mean, even if you just own one 500k property with 50% equity in it, you can do this so it's available to most any credit worthy person, again, tax free. But of course, this doesn't mean that you always should take this windfall, because it often creates a higher monthly payment. You've got to be the one that makes that decision in controlling your cash flows, that is key. I'll talk about that some more with today's terrific guests. Also the Trump administration's desire to privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac we're going to talk about that and what that would do to the mortgage landscape. I am in the USA today, next week, I'll be bringing you the show from London, England for the first time, the following week, from Edinburgh, Scotland. Yes, the mobile GRE Studio will be in effect. I typically set it up myself, and I usually don't need the help of the hotel staff for an appropriate Sound Studio either. And then shortly after that, I will be in Anchorage, Alaska, where I'm competing in these fantastic mountain running races. And then by next month, that's where I hope to meet up with you in person for nine days of learning and fun, as I'll be in Miami as part of the faculty for the terrific real estate guys invest or summon at sea, where we're all going to disembark from Miami and go to St Thomas, St Martin and the Bahamas, and then after that great event, it is a long flight from Miami back to Anchorage again. And that's got to be one of the longer domestic flights, not just in the nation, but in the world, Miami to Anchorage, and then shortly after that, I will be in the Great Northeast early this summer, New York and Pennsylvania, including for my high school reunion. So I'll really be putting the miles on these next couple months. One interesting thing that I've noticed for next week's show, where I'll be joining you from London, is how much I'm paying per night at both my hotel in England and then later my hotel in Scotland. That's obviously a short term real estate transaction. These are some of the more expensive places in the world, really. So next week and then the week after, I just think you'll find it interesting. I'll tell you how much I'm spending per night in both London and then Edinburgh. And they're both prime locations, where the hotels are the center of London and then right on Edinburgh's Royal Mile. That is in future weeks as for today, let's talk about the mortgage landscape with this week's familiar and terrific guest.   I'd like to welcome in one of the more recurrent guests in our history, so she needs little introduction. She's the longtime president of the mortgage company that's created more financial freedom for real estate investors than any lender in the nation because they specialize in income property loans. It's where I get my own loans for my own rental properties. Ridge lending group. Hey, welcome back to GRE Caeli ridge.    Caeli Ridge  8:57   Thank you, Keith. You know I love being here with you and your listeners. I appreciate you having me.   Keith Weinhold  9:01   You've helped us for so long. For example, who can forget way back in episode 56 Yeah, that's a deep scroll back when Chaley broke down each line of a good faith estimate for us, that's basically a closing statement sheet. She told us exactly what we pay for at the closing table, line by line like origination fee, recording costs and title insurance so helpful. It's just the sort of transparency that you get over there. Buyers pay for title insurance at the closing table. It is title insurance a rip off. A few years ago, a lot of people speculated that title insurance would fade away because the property's ownership could be transparent and accessible to everybody on the blockchain, but we don't really see that happening. So tell us about title insurance, and really, are we getting value in what we pay for there at the closing table?   Caeli Ridge  9:54   Well, I think the first thing I would say is that it really isn't going to be an option as far as I. Know, as long as the individual is going to source institutional funding leverage use of other people's money, they're going to require the lender, aka Ridge lending, or whoever you're working with, they're going to require that title insurance that ensures their first lien position. Doing that title search, first and foremost, is going to make it clear that there isn't some cloud on title, that there isn't some mechanic lien that had been sitting out there for however many years it may have just been around. And those types of things never go away. So for a lending perspective, it's going to be real important that that title insurance is paid for and in place to protect their interests, things like judgments, tax liens, like I said, a mechanic's lien, those will automatically take a first lien position in front of a mortgage. So obviously we're not going to risk that and find ourselves in second lien position in the event of default and somebody else is getting paid before we are. So not really an option. Is it a rip off? I don't know enough about how often it's paid out, and not to speak to that, but I will tell you that it isn't a choice.   Keith Weinhold  11:07   Title Insurance, like Shaylee was talking about. It protects against fraud related to the property's ownership, someone else claiming rights to the property, and this title search that an insurer does it also, yeah, it looks for those liens and encumbrances, including unpaid taxes, maybe unpaid HOA dues, but yeah, mortgage lenders typically require title insurance, and if you the borrower, you might think that's annoying. Well, it does make sense, because the bank needs to protect their collateral. If a bank ever has to foreclose, they need to have access to you, the borrower, to be able to do that without any liens or ownership claims from somebody else. Caeli, how often do title insurance companies mess up or have to pay out a claim? Does that ever happen?   Caeli Ridge  11:50   I mean, if I have been involved in a circumstances where that was the case, it's been so many years ago, they're pretty fastidious. I don't know that I could recall a circumstance where something had happened and the title insurance was liable. They go through the paces, man, they've got to make sure that, and they're doing deep dives and searches across nationwide to make sure that there isn't any unnecessary issue that's been placed on title Not that I'm aware of. No.    Keith Weinhold  11:50   Are there any of those other items that we tend to see on a good faith estimate that have had any interesting trends or changes to them in the past few years?    Caeli Ridge  12:27   Yeah, I've got a good one, and this is actually timely credit reports. So over the last couple of years, something has been happening with credit reports where, you know, maybe three, four years ago, a credit report, let's say a joint credit report, a husband and wife went and applied that credit report might cost 25 bucks. Well, now it's in excess of 100 plus. Some of what we're going to be talking about today, it kind of gets into the wish list of Jim neighbors, who is the president of the mortgage brokers Association. He's been talking to the administration about some of his wishes, and credit report fees is actually one of the things that they're wanting to attack and bringing those costs down for the consumer. So when we look at a standard Closing Disclosure today, credit report costs have increased significantly. I don't have the percentages, but by a large margin over the last couple of years,    Keith Weinhold  13:21   typically not one of your bigger costs, but a little noteworthy. There one thing that people might opt and choose to have on their good faith estimates, so that borrower therefore would actually pay more out of pocket with today's higher mortgage rates. And I'm sure not to say high, because historically, they are not high. Do we see more people opting to pay discount points at the closing table to get a lower rate and talk to us about the trade offs there   Caeli Ridge  13:46   right now, first and foremost, that there isn't a lot of option for investment property transactions, whether it be a purchase or refinance. There's not going to be that option where the consumer gets to choose to say, Okay, I want to pay points for a lower rate or not pay points for a higher rate the not paying points is the key here. There isn't going to be a zero point option for investment property transactions. And this gets a little bit convoluted, and then I'll circle back and answer the question of, when does it make sense to pay the points, more points versus less points? We have been in a higher rate environment that I think a lot of people have become accustomed to as a result secondary markets, where mortgage backed securities are bought and sold, they keep very close tabs on the trends and where they think things are headed. Well, something called YSP, that stands for yield, spread, premium, under normal market circumstances, a consumer can say, okay, Caeli, I don't want to pay any points. Okay, I'll take this higher interest rate, and I don't want to pay any points, because that higher interest rate is going to have YSP, yield, spread, premium to pay compensation to a lender, and you know, the other third parties that may be involved in that mortgage backed security. But. Sold and traded, etc, okay? They have that choice under normal market circumstances. Not the case right now, because when this loan sells the servicing rights, whoever is going to pick up the servicing rights, so when Mr. Jones goes to make his mortgage payment, he's going to cut a check to Mr. Cooper. That's a big one, right? Or Rocket Mortgage, or Wells Fargo, whoever the servicer is, the servicing rights are purchased at a cost. They have to pay for the servicing rights, and let's say that's 1% of this bundle of mortgage backed securities that they're purchasing. Well, they know the math is, is that that servicer is going to take about 36 months before that upfront cost is now in the black or profitable. This all will land together. Everybody, I promise you stick with me, so knowing that we've got about a 36 month window before a servicer that picked up the rights to service this mortgage is going to be profitable in a higher rate environment, as interest rates start coming down, what happens to the mortgage that they paid for the rights to service 12 months ago, 18 months ago, that thing is probably going to refinance right prior to the 36 month anniversary of profitability. So that YSP seesaw there is not going to be available for especially a non owner occupied transaction. So said another way, zero point rates are not going to be valid on a non owner occupied transaction in a higher rate environment when secondary markets understand that the loans that are secured today will very likely be refinanced prior to profitability on the servicing side of that mortgage backed security that is a risk to the lender, yes. So we know that right now you're not going to find a zero point option. Now that may be kind of a blanket statement. If you were getting a 30% loan to value owner occupied mortgage with 800 credit scores, you know that's going to be a different animal. And of course, you're going to have the option to not pay points. The risk for that is nothing. Okay, y SP is going to be available for you, the consumer, to be able to choose points at a lower rate, no points higher rate. When does it make sense to pay additional points? Let's say to reduce an interest rate, the break even math. And you know, I'm always talking about the math, the break even math is actually the formula is very simple. All you need to do is figure out the cost of the points. Dollar amount of the points, let's say it's $1,000 and that's what it's going to cost you to, say, get an eighth or a quarter or whatever the denomination is, in the interest rate reduction. But you aren't worried about the interest rate necessarily. You're looking at the monthly payment difference. So it's going to cost you $1,000 in extra points, but it's only going to save you $30 a month in payment when you divide those two numbers, what's that going to take you 33 months? 30 well, okay, and does that make sense? Am I going to refinance in 33 months? If the answer is no, then sure pay the extra 1000 bucks. But that's the math, the cost versus the monthly payment difference divide that that gives you the number of months it takes to recapture cost versus cash flow or savings, and then you be the determining factor on when that makes sense.    Keith Weinhold  18:10   It's pretty simple math. Of course, you can also factor in some inflation over time, and if you would invest that $1,000 in a different vehicle, what pace would that grow at as well? So we've been talking about the pros and cons of buying down your mortgage rate with discount points before we get into the administration changes. Cheley talk about that math in is it worth it to refinance or not? It's a difficult decision for some people to refinance today with higher mortgage rates than we had just a few years ago, and at the same time, we've got a lot of dead equity that's locked up.   Caeli Ridge  18:40   I would start first by saying, Are we looking to harvest equity? Are we pulling cash out, or are we simply doing a rate and term refinance where we're replacing one loan with another loan, if it's for rate and term, if we're simply replacing the loan that we have today with a new loan, that math is going to be pretty simple. Why would you replace 6% interest rate with a 7% interest rate? If all other things were equal, you wouldn't unless there was a balloon feature, or maybe an adjustable rate mortgage or something of that nature involved there that you have to make the refinance. So taking that aside, focusing on a cash out refinance, and when does it make sense? So there's a little extra layered math here. The cash that you're harvesting, the equity that you're harvesting, first of all, borrowed funds are non taxable. What are we going to do with that pile of cash? Are we going to redeploy it for investing more often than not talking to investors? The answer is yes. What is that return going to look like? So you've got to factor that in as well, and then we'll get to the tax benefit in a moment. But generally speaking, I like to as long as the cash flow is still there, okay, you've got to have someone else covering that payment. Normally, there's exceptions to every rule. I don't normally advise going negative on a cash out refi. There are exceptions. Okay, please hear me. But otherwise, as long as the existing rents are covering and that thing is still being paid for by somebody else, then what you want to do is look at that monthly payment. Difference again, versus what you're getting out of it. And then you divide those two numbers pretty simply, and it'll take you how long. And then you've got a layer in the cash flow that you're going to get from the new acquisitions, and whether that be real estate or some other type of investment, whatever the return is, you're going to be using that to offset. And then finally, I would say, make sure that you're doing adding in the tax benefit. These are rental properties guys, right? So closing costs can be deducted now that may end up hurting debt to income ratio down the road. So don't forget, Ridge lending is going to be looking at your draft tax returns. Very, very important to ensure that we're setting you up for success and optimizing things like debt to income ratio on an annual basis.   Keith Weinhold  20:40   Now, some investors, or even primary residence owners might look at their first and only mortgage on a property, see that it's 4% and really not want to touch that. What is the environment and the appetite like today for having a refinance in the form of a second mortgage? That way you can keep your first mortgage in place and, say, 4% get a second mortgage at 7% or more. How does that look for both owner occupied and non owner occupied properties today?   Caeli Ridge  21:07   you're going to be looking at prime, plus, in many cases, if you don't want to mess with a first lien, a second lien mortgage is typically going to be tied to an index called prime. Those of you that are familiar with this have probably heard of that. Indicee. There's lots of them. The fed fund rate, by the way, is an index. There's lots of them. The Treasury is also another index. Prime is sitting, I think, at seven and a half percent. So you're probably going to be looking at rate wise, depending on occupancy and credit score and all of those llpas that we always talk about, loan level, price adjustment. You know, it could be prime plus zero, it could be prime plus four. So interest rates could range between, say, seven and a half, on average, up to 11 even 12% depending on those other variables. More often than not, those are going to be interest only. So make sure that you're doing that simple math there. And I would prefer if I'm giving advice the second liens, the he loan, which is closed ended, very much like your first mortgage, it's just in second lien position. It's amortized over a certain period of time, closed ended. Not as big a fan of that. If you can find the second liens, especially for non owner occupied, I would encourage it to be that open ended HELOC type.    Keith Weinhold  22:15   What are we looking at for combined loan to value ratios with second mortgages    Caeli Ridge  22:19   on an owner occupied I think you'd be happy to get 90. I think I've heard that in some cases, they can go up to 95% in my opinion, that would go as high as they'll let you go right on a non owner occupied, I think you'd be real lucky to find 80, and probably closer to 70.    Keith Weinhold  22:34   That really helps a lot with our planning. Well, the administration that came in this year has made some changes that can create some upheaval, some things to pay attention to in the mortgage market. We're going to talk about that when we come back. You're listening to get rich education. Our guest is Ridge lending Group President, Caeli Ridge I'm your host, Keith Weinhold.    The same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group  NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your prequel and even chat with President Chaeli Ridge personally while it's on your mind, start at Ridge lendinggroup.com. That's Ridge lendinggroup.com.    You know what's crazy? Your bank is getting rich off of you. The average savings account pays less than 1% it's like laughable. Meanwhile, if your money isn't making at least 4% you're losing to inflation. That's why I started putting my own money into the FFI liquidity fund. It's super simple. Your cash can pull in up to 8% returns, and it compounds. It's not some high risk gamble like digital or AI stock trading. It's pretty low risk because they've got a 10 plus year track record of paying investors on time in full every time. I mean, I wouldn't be talking about it if I wasn't invested myself. You can invest as little as 25k and you keep earning until you decide you want your money back. No weird lockups or anything like that. So if you're like me and tired of your liquid funds just sitting there doing nothing. Check it out. Text family to 66866, to learn about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund again. Text family to 66866   Hal Elrod  24:38   this is Hal Elrod, author of The Miracle Morning and listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't put your Daydream.   Keith Weinhold  24:55   Welcome back to get rich education. We're talking about mortgages again, because this is one. Where leverage comes from. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, we're sitting down with the president of ridge lending group, Caeli Ridge, and I know that she has some knowledge and some updates on new administration leadership and some potential changes for the market there. What can you tell us? Caeli   Caeli Ridge  25:16   I'm pretty excited about this one, and I'm watching very diligently to see how it unfolds. So the new director of the FHFA Federal Housing Finance Agency, all is Bill Pulte. This is the grandson of Pulte Homes. Okay, smart guy. I'm excited to see what he's going to come in and do. Well. He had recently, I think in the last couple of weeks, he put out in the news wires asking for feedback from the powers that be, related to Fannie and Freddie, what improvements they would like to see. So first up was Jim neighbors. He is the president of the mortgage brokers Association. He had a few very specific wish list items, if you will. And the first one on his list was the elimination of LLP, as for non owner occupied and second home. So let me just kind of paint a picture here, because there's some backstory I think is important. So an LLPA, for those of you that have never heard that term before, stands for a loan level price adjustment. And a loan level price adjustment is a positive number or a negative number that associates with the individual loan characteristics. So things like loan to value or loan size, occupancy is a big ll PA, the difference between an owner occupied where you live and one that you're going to use as a rental property, that's a big one. Credit score, property type, is it a single family? Is it a two to four? Is this a purchase? Is it a refi? Anyway, all of those different characteristics are ll pas. Well, if we take a step back in time, gosh, about three years ago now, Mark Calabria, at the time, was the director of the FHFA, and he had imposed increases, specific increases. This was middle of 22 I want to say specific increases to the LL pas for non owner occupied property. So if anybody kind of remembers that time, we started to really see points and interest rates take that jump sometime in 2022 more than just the traditional interest rate market and the fluctuations. This was very material to investment property and second home, but we'll focus on the investment property. So Mr. Jim neighbors came in and said, first and foremost, I'd like to see those removed, and I want to read something to the listeners here, because I thought it was very interesting. This is something I've been kind of preaching from the the rooftops, if you will, for many, many years. Yeah, we've got neighbors sticking up for investors here. He really is. And I Yeah, well, yes, he is. And more often than not, they're focused on the owner occupied so I'm just going to kind of read. I've got my cheat sheet here. I want to make sure I get it all right for everybody. So removal of the loan level price adjustments on investment properties and second homes, he noted that these risk based fees charged by Fannie and Freddie discourage responsible buyers from purchasing second homes and investment properties, with that insignificant increase to cost. And here's the important part, originally introduced to account for additional credit risk, many of the pandemic era llpa increases were not based on updated risk metric. In fact, data has shown that loans secured by investment properties often have strong credit profiles and lower than expected default rates. I mean, anybody that has been around long enough to see what we've come from, like, 08,09, and when we had the calamity of right, the barrier for entry for us to get any conventional financing as investors has been harsh. I mean, I make that stupid joke of vials of blend DNA samples. But aside from it being an icebreaker, it kind of feels true. We really get the short end of the stick. And I feel like as investors especially, post 08,09, our credit profiles, our qualifications, the bar is so high for us, the default risk there has largely been removed. We've got so much skin in the game. With 20 25% down, credit score is much higher, debt to income ratios more scrutinized, etc, etc. So I think that this is, if it passes muster. I think this is going to be a real big win for the non owner occupied side of agency, Fannie, Mae, Freddie, Mac lending.   Keith Weinhold  29:13    The conventional wisdom is, is that if you the borrower, get into financial trouble, you're more likely to walk away from your rental properties than you are your own home and neighbors, sort of like a good neighbor here sticking up for us and stating that, hey, us, the investors, we're actually highly credit worthy people.   Caeli Ridge  29:29   Yeah, absolutely. So fingers crossed. Everybody say your prayers to the llpa and mortgage investor rates gods.   Keith Weinhold  29:37   we'll be attentive to that. What other sorts of changes do we have with the administration? For example, I know that Trump and some others in the administration have talked about privatizing the GSEs, those government sponsored enterprises, Fannie, Mae, Freddie Mac and what kind of disruption that would create for the industry. Is it really any credence to that?   Caeli Ridge  29:58   They've been talking about it for. For quite a while. I mean, as long as Trump has been kind of on the scene, that's been maybe a wish list for him. I don't see that happening over the next years. That is an absolute behemoth to unpack and make a reality. Speaking of Mark Calabria, he was really hot and heavy on the trails of doing that. So what this is, you guys so fatty Freddy, are in conservatorship that happened back post 08,09, and privatizing them and making them where it is not funded, or conservatorship within the United States government. Now it still has those guarantees against default. It's a very complicated, complex, nuanced dynamic of mortgage backed securities, but if we were to privatize them at some point now, am I saying that that's a bad thing? No, not necessarily, but I think it has to be very carefully executed, and because there are so many moving parts, I do not think that just one term of presidency is going to make that happen. If we do it, it's going to be years down the road from now. Is my crystal ball. I don't think we're going to see that anytime soon.    Keith Weinhold  30:58   That's interesting to know. Are there any other industry changes that are important, especially for investors, whether that has to do with the change in administration or anything else?   Caeli Ridge  31:08    Well, specific to that wish list from Mr. Neighbors, one of the other things that he had asked, and there were quite a few, for owner occupied changes as well, he wants to reduce the seasoning for cash out refinances of investment properties, which would be huge good. Yeah, right now it's 12 months on a cash out refinance given very specific acquisition details. Okay, I won't go down that rabbit hole, but currently, if you haven't met exactly these certain benchmarks, you may have to wait 12 months to pull cash out of a property from the day that you acquire it, he's asking that that be pulled back to about six months, which would be nice   Keith Weinhold  31:46   reducing the seasoning period from 12 months to six months, meaning that an investor a borrower, would only need to own that property for that shorter duration of time prior to performing a refinance.   Caeli Ridge  31:58    Cash out refinance, no seasoning required on a rate and term. This is specific for cash out. But again, for cash out, but exactly right   Keith Weinhold  32:04   now, one trend that I think about sometimes, especially when I think back to 2008 2009 days since I was an investor through that time, is, are there any signs in the reduction of the appetite or the propensity to lend, to make loans. So how freely is credit flowing?    Caeli Ridge  32:25   I think pretty freely. I'm not seeing that they're tightening the purse strings. That's not the lens that I'm looking at it from, and I try to keep that brush stroke broad. There have been, I think that on the post, close side, there's been a little extra from Fannie Freddie, and I think that has to do with profitability markers. But overall, I'm not seeing that products are disappearing necessarily, or that guidelines are really becoming even more cumbersome. If anything, I would say it's maybe the reverse of that, and I do believe that probably is part and parcel to this administration and the real estate background that comes with it.   Keith Weinhold  32:59   One other thing I pay attention to, but it just really hasn't been much of a story lately. Are delinquencies in foreclosures. It seems like they've ticked up a little bit, but they're still both really historically low and basically a delinquency being defined as when a borrower makes one late payment, and foreclosures being the more severe thing, typically a 120 days late or more. Any trends there? I'm not   Caeli Ridge  33:24   seeing any now. And in fact, I would tell you that, because we focus so much on investor needs, first payment default is I can count on less than one hand, if I had to, how many times I've seen that happen with our clients over 25 years. So nothing noteworthy there for me.    Keith Weinhold  33:40   Yes. I mean, today's borrowers are just flush with equity. Nationally, there's a loan to value ratio of 47% which is healthy, in a sense. On average, borrowers have a 53% equity position. Of course, the next thing, I think, is like, I don't really know if that's a smart strategy. They're not really getting that much leverage out there. But I think a lot of people just have the old mentality of get it paid off.    Caeli Ridge  34:06   And I think that depending on where you are in your journey, I mean, if you're in phase three, right, where you're just really looking at these investments, these nest eggs to carry you into your retirement and or for legacy reasons, fine, but otherwise, I may argue the point in that I don't care that you have a 3% interest rate on an investment property, or whatever it may be, if it's sitting there idle and as long as it can cash flow, the true chances of those individuals of keeping that mortgage that they got in 2020, 2021, etc, at those ridiculously low interest rates and stroking 360 payments later to pay it to zero is a fraction of a percent right now, whether they're on the sidelines for something else, I don't know, but that debt, equity, I think, is hurting them more than a 3% interest rate is helping them.   Keith Weinhold  34:52    And a lot of times, the mindset of someone is, if they don't need to build wealth anymore, and they're older and they already built wealth, they don't care if they're loaned to value. Was down to zero, and they have it paid off, whereas someone that's in the wealth building phase probably wants to get more leverage. Yeah, Chaley at risk lending group, there you see so many applications come in, and especially since you're an investor centric lender, I like to ask you what trends you're seeing. What are people buying? What are people doing? Are they refinancing? Are they paying loans off? Are they trying to take out more credit? Are there any overall trends with investors that you see in there    Caeli Ridge  35:29   right now? I think the all in one is a clear winner there. The all in one, that first lien, HELOC, that you and I talked about, we broke my little corner of the internet with that one, that one is a front runner for sure, on the refinance side, specifically, we are seeing quite a bit more on the refi side of things, that equity is kind of just sitting there. So even though, if the on one isn't a good fit for them, I'm seeing investors that are willing to tap into that equity instead of just sitting around and waiting for them to potentially lose some equity if the housing market does start to take some decline. And then I would say, on the purchase transaction side, something that's kind of piqued my interest is the pad split. I'm looking at that more often where, for those that are not familiar, you can probably speak more to this, Keith, they're buying single family resident properties, even two to four unit properties, and a per bedroom basis, turning those into rental properties. And they're looking to be quite profitable. So I've got my eyes on that too.   Keith Weinhold  36:23   before we ask how we can learn more about you and what you do in there at Ridge Kayle. Is there any last thing that you'd like to share? Maybe a question I did not think about asking you, but should have.    Caeli Ridge  36:35   I would like to share with your listeners that if they are not working with a lender that focuses on their education and has that diversity of loan product that we have, that they're probably in the wrong support group. You need to be working with a lender that has a nationwide footprint and that has diversity of loan product to cover whatever methodology of real estate investing that you're looking for, and really puts a fine touch on the education of your qualifications and your goals as they relate to underwriters guidelines   Keith Weinhold  37:10   what we're talking about, and I know this through my own experience in dealing with Ridge, since I use them for my own loans myself, is sometimes Ridge might inform You that, hey, you can go and do this and make this deal now, but that's going to mess up this bigger thing 12 months down the road, whereas if you talk with an everyday sort of owner occupant mortgage company, oh, they're just not going to talk like that, because owner occupants, they might only buy every seven years, or something like that. And investors are different, and you need to have that foresight and look ahead. Caeli, this has been great, a really informative conversation about the pulse of the market. Tell us what products that you offer in there.   Caeli Ridge  37:50   Our menu is very, very diverse. I would say what. It's probably easier to describe what we don't offer. We do not have bear lot loans or land loans. We're not offering those right now. We do not have second lien HELOCs currently. We suspended that two years ago. But otherwise, guys, we're going to have everything that you're going to need. So just very quickly, I'll rattle off Fannie Freddie, okay, those golden tickets that we talk about, we've got DSCR loans, bank statement loans, asset depletion loans, ground up construction, short term bridge loans for fix and flip or fix and hold. We have our All In One that's my favorite first lien. HELOC, we have commercial loan products for commercial property and residential on a cross collateralization basis. So very, very robust in the loan product space.   Keith Weinhold  38:33   Caeli Ridge, it's been valuable as always. And then Ridge lending group.com, or your phone number   Caeli Ridge  38:39   855-747-4343, 855-74-RIDGE, , and then to reach us an email, if that's your better mechanism to contact us info@ridgelendinggroup.com   Keith Weinhold  38:50   that's been valuable as always. Thanks so much for coming back onto the show.    Caeli Ridge  38:53   Appreciate it. Keith,   Keith Weinhold  39:00   Yeah, terrific information from Chaley. As always, if you're enamored of borrowing tax free, like a billionaire, against your real estate, they sure can help you out with that and determine whether that's right. It doesn't mean that you always should, but if you have investment ideas for debt equity, and you're attentive to cash flows, run the numbers with them and see if it's worthwhile. As far as new purchases, we all know that soured affordability has made it especially tough for first time homebuyers, and there's more data out there that shows that tenant durations are historically long, longer than they usually are. Tenants are staying in places longer because they have to. Investor purchases have stayed strong, though investors have been buying about the same proportion of single family homes and making them rentals that they have historically and Redfin tells us that. The value of properties that investors have purchased is up more than 6% year over year, so investors are still buying and that makes sense. We're in this era where there's more uncertainty than usual, there's higher stock volatility than usual, and more people are sort of asking themselves, where would I get a better return than on income property, and where would my return be more stable today than in income property as well? If you work with Ridge lending group for a time, you're probably going to understand why I personally use them for my own loans. You'll notice that they really understand what investors need. Thanks to Caeli Ridge today and thank you for being here too. But as always, you weren't here for me. You were here for you until next week. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.   Speaker 3  40:56   Nothing on this show should be considered specific personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively.   Keith Weinhold  41:20   You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info, oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access, and it's got paywalls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers. It's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters. And I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read, and when you start the letter, you also get my one hour fast real estate video. Course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream letter. It wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now. Just text. GRE to 66866, while it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text GRE to 66866   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, get rich education.com.    

Get Rich Education
553: "Tariffs Will Create Empty Shelves and Economic Disaster" -Father of Reaganomics, David Stockman Joins Us

Get Rich Education

Play Episode Listen Later May 12, 2025 53:30


The Father of Reaganomics, David Stockman, joins us to explore the complex world of international trade and its impact on investors.  Key insights include: Challenging conventional wisdom about trade policies Understanding economic forces that drive investment opportunities Gaining expert perspective on global economic trends Stockman provides a candid analysis of current trade strategies, revealing: The true drivers of economic competitiveness Potential pitfalls of protectionist approaches Critical insights for strategic investors The episode cuts through political noise to offer clear, actionable economic intelligence for informed decision-making. Smart investors look beyond headlines to understand the deeper economic forces shaping their financial future. Resources: Check out David Stockman's Contra Corner Newsletter Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/553 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREinvestmentcoach.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai    Keith Weinhold  0:01   Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, I sit down with a long time White House occupant who was the official economic advisor to an ex president. We get the real deal on tariffs and what they mean to you. Trump gets called out and the ominous sign about what's coming six months from now, today on, Get Rich Education.   Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being the flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com   Corey Coates  1:14   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  1:30   Welcome to GRE from Brookline, Massachusetts to Brooklyn, New York and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are listening to get rich education, just another shaved mammal behind this microphone here. I recently spent some time with the father of Reaganomics, David Stockman, in New York City, and sometimes an issue so critical surfaces that real estate investors need to step back and understand a broader force in the economy. Three weeks ago, here, I told you how the second and third way, real estate pays you. Cash flow and ROA are sourced by your tenants employment and the future of your tenants employment is influenced by tariffs and other policies of this presidential administration. This is going to affect rates of inflation and a whole lot of things. Now, an organization called the American Dialect Society, they actually name their word of the year, and this year, it is shaping up to be that word, tariff. In fact, Trump has described that word as the most beautiful word in the dictionary. And I think we all know by now that a tariff is an import tax that gets passed along to consumers when it comes to materials used in real estate construction that's going to affect future real estate prices. Well, several key ones so far were exempted from recent reciprocal tariffs, including steel, aluminum, lumber and copper exempted. Not everything was exempted, but those items and some others were but who knows if even they are going to stay that way. And now, when it comes to this topic. I think a lot of people want to make immediate overreactions in even posture like they're an expert in become an armchair economist, and I guess we all do a little of that, me included. But rather than being first on this and overreacting, let's let the policy which Trump called Liberation Day last month when he announced all these new tariffs. Let's let policy simmer a little and then bring in an expert that really knows what this means to the economy and real estate. So that's why I wanted to set up this discussion for your benefit with the father of Reaganomics and I today. In fact, what did Reagan himself say about tarrifs back in 1987 this is part of a clip that's gained new life this year. It's about a minute and a half.    Speaker 1  4:13   Throughout the world, there's a growing realization that the way to prosperity for all nations is rejecting protectionist legislation and promoting fair and free competition. Now there are sound historical reasons for this. For those of us who lived through the Great Depression, the memory of the suffering it caused is deep and searing, and today, many economic analysts and historians argue that high tariff legislation passed back in that period called the Smoot Hawley tariff greatly deepened the depression and prevented economic recovery. You see at first when someone says, Let's impose tariffs on foreign imports, it looks like they're doing the patriotic thing by protecting American products and jobs, and sometimes for a short while at work. Price, but only for a short time. What eventually occurs is first, home grown industries start relying on government protection in the form of high tariffs. They stop competing and stop making the innovative management and technological changes they need to succeed in world markets. And then, while all this is going on, something even worse occurs. High tariffs inevitably lead to retaliation by foreign countries and the triggering of fierce trade wars. The result is more and more tariffs, higher and higher trade barriers, and less and less competition, so soon, because of the prices made artificially high by tariffs that subsidize inefficiency and poor management, people stop buying. Then the worst happens, markets shrink and collapse, businesses and industry shut down, and millions of people lose their jobs.    Keith Weinhold  5:50   Now, from what I can tell you as a listener in the GRE audience, maybe you're split on what you think about tariffs. In fact, we ran an Instagram poll. It asks, generally speaking, tariffs are good or bad? Simply that 40% of you said good, 60% bad. Over on LinkedIn, it was different. 52% said they're good, 48% bad. So it's nearly half and half. And rather than me taking a side here, I like to bring up points that support both sides, and then let our distinguished guests talk, since he's the expert. For example, if a foreign nation wants to access the world's largest economy, the United States, does it make sense for them to pay a fee? I mean, it works that way in a lot of places, when you want to list a product on eBay or Amazon, you pay them a fee. You pay a percentage of the list price in order to get access to a ready marketplace of qualified buyers. All right. Well, that's one side, but then the other side is, come on, let's look at history. Where have tariffs ever worked like Where have they ever been a resounding, long term success? Do they have any history of a sustained, good track record? I generally like free trade. Then let's understand there's something even worse than a steep tariff. There are quotas which are imposed, import limits, trade limits, and then there are even all out import bans. What do terrorists mean to the economy that you are going to live in and that your tenants live in? It's the father of Reaganomics, and I on that straight ahead on Get Rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold.   you know what's crazy? Your bank is getting rich off of you. The average savings account pays less than 1% it's like laughable. Meanwhile, if your money isn't making at least 4% you're losing to inflation. That's why I started putting my own money into the FFI liquidity fund. It's super simple. Your cash can pull in up to 8% returns, and it compounds. It's not some high risk gamble like digital or AI stock trading. It's pretty low risk because they've got a 10 plus year track record of paying investors on time in full every time. I mean, I wouldn't be talking about it if I wasn't invested myself. You can invest as little as 25k and you keep earning until you decide you want your money back, no weird lock ups or anything like that. So if you're like me and tired of your liquid funds just sitting there doing nothing, check it out. Text, family to 66866, to learn about freedom, family investments, liquidity fund, again. Text family to 6686   Hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine, at Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start Now while it's on your mind at Ridge lendinggroup.com, that's ridgelendinggroup.com.    Hey   Robert Helms  9:28   Hey everybody. It's Robert Helms of the real estate guys radio program. So glad you found Keith Weinhold in get rich education. Don't quit your Daydream.   Keith Weinhold  9:48   when it comes to White House economic policy like tariffs, taxes and inflation, don't you wish you could talk to someone that's often been inside the White House. Today, we are even better. He was the official advisor to an ex president on economic affairs, a Wall Street and Washington insider and Harvard grad. Today's guest is also a former two time congressman from Michigan. He's a prolific author, and he is none other than the man known as the father of Reaganomics. He was indeed President Ronald Reagan's budget advisor. He was first with us last year, but so much has happened since. So welcome back to the show. David Stockman,    David Stockman  10:26   very good to be with you, and you're certainly right about that. I think we're really in uncharted waters. Who could have predicted where we are today, and therefore it's very hard to know where we're heading, but you have to try to peer through the fog and all the uncertainty and the noise and the, you know, day to day ups and downs that's coming from this White House in a way that we've never seen before. And I started on Capitol Hill in 1970 so I've been watching this, you know, for more than a half century, actually, quite a while. And man, it's important to go through all this, but it's sort of uncharted waters.    Keith Weinhold  11:04   Sure, it's sort of like you wake up every day and all you do know is that you don't know. And David, when it comes to tariffs, I want to give you my idea, and then I want to ask you about what the tariff objective even is. Now, to be sure, no one is asking me how to advise the President. I'm an international real estate investor, but I do most of my business in the US, and I sure don't have international trade policy experience. It seems better to me, David, that rather than shocking the world with new tariffs that kick in right away, it would have been better to announce that tariffs begin in, say, 90 days, and then give nations space to negotiate before they kick in. That's my prevailing idea. My question to you is, what's the real objective here? What are terrorists proposed to do? Raise revenue, onshore companies merely a negotiation tactic? Is the objective? Something else?    David Stockman  12:00   Well, it might be all of the above, but I think it's important to start with a predicate, and that is that the problem is not high tariffs abroad or cheating by foreign competitors or exporters. There is a huge problem of a chronic trade deficit that is not benign, that does reflect a tremendous offshoring of our industrial economy, the loss of good, high paying industrial and manufacturing jobs. So the issue is an important one to address, but I have to say, very clearly, Trump is 100% wrong when he attempts to address it with tariffs, because foreign tariffs aren't the problem. Let me just give a couple of pieces of data on this, and I've been doing a lot of research on this. If you take the top 51 exporters to the United States, our top 51 trade partners, and this is Mexico and Canada and the entire EU and it's all the big far eastern China, Japan, South Korea, India, you know, all the rest of them. If you look at the and that's 90% of our trade, we have 2.9 trillion of imports coming in from all of those countries, and the tariff that we Levy, this is the United States, on those imports, is not high. It's higher than it was in the past, mainly because of what Trump did in the first term, but it's 3.9% now compared to bad times historically, decades and decades ago. That's relatively low. But here's the key point, if we look at the same 51 trading partners in terms of the tariffs they levy on our exports to China and to the EU and to Canada and Mexico and South Korea and all the rest of them. The tariff average, weighted average that they levy is 2.1% so let me restate that the average US tariff is about twice as high 4% around things as what our partners imposed 2% now the larger point is whether it's 4% or 2% doesn't make a better difference. That's not a problem when it comes to 33 trillion of world trade of which we are, you know, the United States engages in about five and a half trillion of that on a two way basis, import, export, in the nexus of a massive global trading system. So he's off base. He's wrong. The target is not high tariffs or unfair foreign trade. Now there are some people who say, Well, you're looking at monetary tariffs. So in other words, the import duty they levy on, you know, exports to South Korea or India or someplace like that, right? And that, the real issue, supposedly, is non tariff barriers. For instance, you know, some governments require you that all procurement by government agencies has to be sourced from a domestic supplier, which automatically shuts out us suppliers who might want that business. Well, the problem is we're the biggest violator of the non tariff barrier in that area. In other words, we have something like $900 billion worth of state, federal and local procurement that's under Buy America policies, which means EU, Mexico, Canada, China, none of them can compete. Now I mention that only as one example, because it's the kind of classic non tariff barrier, as opposed to import duty that some people point to, or they point to the fact that while foreign countries allegedly manipulate their currency, but you know the answer to that is that number one, overwhelming, no doubt about it, largest currency manipulator in the world, is the Federal Reserve. Okay, so it's kind of hard to say that there's a unfair trade problem in the world because of currency manipulation. And then there is, you know, an argument. Well, foreign governments subsidize their exporters. They subsidize their industrial companies, and therefore they can sell things cheaper. And therefore that's another example of unfair trade, but the biggest subsidizer of tech industry, and of a lot of other basic industry in the United States is is the Defense Department. You know, we have a trillion dollar defense budget, and we put massive amounts of dollars in, not only to buying, you know, hardware and weapons and so forth, but huge amounts of R and D that go into developing cutting edge technologies that have a lot of civilian applications that, in fact, we see all over the world. That's why we're doing this broadcast right now. The point is that problem is not high tariffs because they're only low tariffs. The problem is not unfair trade, because there's all kinds of minor little interferences with pure free markets, but both, everybody violates those one way or another due to domestic politics. But it's not a big deal. It doesn't make that big a difference. So therefore, why do we have a trillion dollar trade deficit in the most recent year, and a trade deficit of that magnitude that's been pretty continuous since the 1970s the answer is three or four blocks from the White House, not 10,000 miles away in Beijing or Tokyo. The answer is the Federal Reserve has in the ELLs building there in DC, not far from the White House. Yes, yes, right there, okay, the Eccles building the Fed has a huge, persistent pro inflation bias, sure. And as a result of that, it is pushed the wage levels and the price levels and the cost levels of the US economy steadily higher, and therefore we've become less and less competitive with practically everybody, but certainly a lower wage countries nearby, like Mexico or China, far away. And you know, there's, it's not that simple of just labor costs and wages, because, after all, if you source from China, you've got to ship things 10,000 miles. You've got supply chain management issues, you've got quality control issues, you've got timeliness issues. You have inventory carry costs, because there's a huge pipeline, and of course, you have the actual freight cost of bringing all those containers over. But nevertheless, when you factor all that in, our trade problem is our costs are too high, and that is a function of the pro inflation policies of the Fed. Give one example. Go back just to the period when the economy was beginning to recover, right after the great recession. And you know the crisis of 208209 and I started 210 unit labor costs in manufacturing in the United States. Just from 210 that's only 15 years, are up 55% that's unit labor costs. In other words, if you take wage costs and you subtract productivity growth in that 15 year period, the net wage costs less productivity growth, which is what economists call unit labor costs, are up 53% and as a result of that, we started, you know, maybe with a $15 wage difference between the United States and.China back in the late 1990s that wage gap today is $30 in other words, the fully loaded way at cost of average wages in the United States. And I'm talking about not just the pay envelope, but also the payroll taxes, the you know, charge for pension expense, health care and so forth. The whole fully loaded cost to an employer is about $40 an hour, and it's about $10 in the United States and it's about $10 an hour in China. Now that's the reason why we have a huge trade deficit with China, because of the massive cost difference, and it's not because anybody's cheating. Is because the Fed, in its wisdom, decided, well, you know, everybody will be okay. We're going to inflate the economy at 2% a year. That's their target. It's not like, well, we're trying to get low inflation or zero inflation, but we're not quite making it. No, they're proactive. Answer is, we've got to have 2% or the economy is not going to work. Well, well, 2% sounds well, that's a trivial little number. However, when you do it year after year, decade after decade, for a long period of time, and the other side is not inflating at the same rate, then in dollar terms, you have a problem, and that's where we are today. So this is important to understand, because it means the heart of the whole Trump economic policy, which is trying to bring manufacturing home, trying to bring industry back to the United States, a laudable objective is based on a false diagnosis of why this happened, and it is unleashed ball in the china shop, disruption of global economic flows in relationships that are going to cause unmitigated problems, even disaster in the US economy. Because it's too subtle, when you think about it, the world trade system just goods. Now, we've not even talking about services yet, or capital flows or financing on a short term basis. The World Trade in goods, merchandise, goods only is now 33 trillion. That is a hell of a lot of activity of parts and pieces and raw materials and finished products flowing in. You know, impossible to imagine directions back and forth between dozens and dozens of major economies and hundreds overall. And when you start, you step into that, not with a tiny little increase in the tariff. To give somebody a message. You know, if our tariffs are averaging 4% that's what I gave you a little while ago. And you raise tariffs to 20% maybe that's a message. But Trump didn't do that. He raised the tariff on China to 145% in other words, let's just take one example of a practical product, almost all the small appliances that you can find in Target or even a higher end retail stores United States or on Amazon are sourced in China because of this cost differential. I've been talking about this huge wage differential. So over the last 20, 25, years, little it went there now 80% of all small appliances are now sourced in China, and one, you know, good example would be a microwave oven, and a standard one with not a lot of fancy bells and whistles, is $100 now, when you put 145% tariff on the $100 landed microwave oven is now $245 someone's going to say, Gee, are we going to be able to sell microwaves at $245 they're not certain. I'm talking about a US importer. I'm talking about someone who sells microwaves on Amazon, for instance, or the buyers at Walmart or Target, or the rest of them, they're going to say, wait a minute, maybe we ought to hold off our orders until we see how this is going to shake out. And Trump says he's going to be negotiating, which is another whole issue that we'll get into. It's a lot of baloney. He has no idea what he's doing. Let's just face the facts about this. So if orders are suddenly cut back, and the flow that goes on day in and day out across the Pacific into the big ports in Long Beach in Los Angeles is suddenly disrupted, not in a small way, but in a big way, by 20, 30, 40, 50% six or seven months down the road, we're going to have empty shelves. We're going to have empty warehouses. We're going to have sellers who suddenly realize there's such a scarcity of products that have been hit by this blunderbuss of tariffs that we can double our price and get away with it.   Keith Weinhold  25:00   Okay, sure. I mean, ports are designed. Ports are set up for stadium flows, not for surges, and then walls and activity. That just really doesn't work.   David Stockman  25:08   And let me just get in that, because you're on a good point. In other words, there is a complicated supply line, supply chain, where, you know, stuff is handed off, one hand to another, ports in China, shipping companies, ports here, rail distribution systems, regional warehouses of you know, people like Walmart and so forth, that whole supply chain is going to be hit with a shock. Everything is going to be uncertain in terms of the formulas that everybody uses right now, you know that you sell 100 units a week, so you got to replace them at the sales rate, and you put your orders in, and know that it takes six weeks to get here, and all this other stuff, all of the common knowledge that's in the supply chain that makes it work, and the handoffs smooth and efficient From one player in the supply chain to the next, it's all going to be disrupted. But the one thing we're going to have is we're going to have shortages, we're going to have empty shelves, and we're going to have price which I'm sure that Trump is not going to start saying price gouging of a you know, right? But that's not price gouging. If you have a you know, go to Florida. We have a hurricane. Where we live in Florida and New York, we have a hurricane. All of a sudden the shelves are empty and there's no goods around, because everybody's been stocking up getting ready for the storm. And then all of a sudden, the politicians are yelling that somebody's price gouging, because they raised their prices in a market that was in disequilibrium. Well, that's not price gouging. That's supply and demand trying to find a new balance basic economics. You know, when the demand is 100 and the supply is 35 okay, but I'm kind of getting ahead here, but I think there's very good likelihood that there's going to be a human cry right before, you know, maybe in the fall or right before Christmas, about price gouging and Trump then saying, Well, I was elected to bring prices down and bring inflation under control. It's out of control because all of these foreigners raised their prices. And no, they did, and it was the tariff that did it, and all the people in the supply chain are trying to take advantage of the temporary disruptions. So I think people have to understand, and I can't say this, and I don't like to say it, because I certainly didn't think the other candidate in the last election had anything to offer in terms of dealing with our serious economic problems in this country. I'm talking about Harris. But the fact is, Donald Trump has had a wrong idea for the last 40 to 50 years of his adult life. In that core idea is that trade deficits are a sign of the other side cheating. They're a sign that you're being exploited or taken advantage of or ripped off, or it's not at all okay. Trade deficits are a consequence of cost differences between different jurisdictions, and to the extent that we've artificially, unnecessarily inflated our costs. We need to fix the problem at the source. He ought to clean house at the Federal Reserve. But the problem is, Trump wants lower interest rates when, in fact, the low interest rates created all the inflation that led to our loss of competitiveness and the huge trade deficits we have today. So to summarize, it is important to understand, do not have faith in Trump's promise that we're going to have a golden age of economic prosperity. We are going to have a economic disaster, and it's a unforced error. It's self inflicted, and it's the result of the wrong fundamental idea of one guy who's in the oval office right now throwing his considerable weight around and pushing the economy into upheaval that really is totally unnecessary. He should have done what he was elected to do, and Matt's work on getting production up and costs down, that's not going to be solved with tariffs. David, I have another important point to bring up. But before we do just quickly, are those two to 4% tariffs you mentioned earlier. Those are the tariff levels pre Trump second term correct.    We could clarify that those are for the year 2023 that was the latest full year data that we have with great deal of granularity.    Keith Weinhold  29:56   The point I want to bring up is there any history? That tariffs actually work. Some people cite the Smoot Hawley Tariff Act from the 1930s and that it drove us deeper into the Great Depression. And David, on the one hand, when we think about, do tariffs actually work? If Indonesia can make shoes for us for $11 why would we want to onshore an activity like that? That is a good deal for us. And then, on the other hand, you have someone like Nvidia, the world's leading semiconductor company, they announced plans to produce some of their AI supercomputers entirely on American soil for the first time recently. And you have some other companies that have made similar announcements. So that's a small shred of evidence that tariffs could work. But my question is, historically, do tariffs actually work?    David Stockman  30:44   That's a great question, and there's a huge history. And you can go back all the way the 19th century, where Donald Trump seems to be preoccupied, but what he fails to recognize is that they worked in the 19th century because they were revenue tariffs. It wasn't an effort to, like, bring jobs back to America. We were booming at the time. Jobs were coming to America, not leaving, and it was the federal government's main source of revenue. Because, as you know, prior to 1913 there was no income tax, right? So that was one thing. Okay, then when we got into the 20th century and host World War Two, it became obvious to people that the whole idea of comparative advantage, going all the way back to Adam Smith, and that enhanced a global trade where people could specialize in whatever their more competitive advantage is, was a Good thing. And so we had round after round of negotiations after World War Two that reduced tariff levels steadily, year by year, decade by decade. So by the time we got to the 1990s when China, then, you know, arose from the disaster of Mao and Mr. Dang took over and created all the export factories and said, It's glorious to be rich and all these things is we got red capitalism. But if we start in the 1990s the average tariff worldwide, now this is weighted average on all goods that are bought and sold or imported and exported, was about 9% and there were have been various free trade deals done since then. For instance, we had NAFTA, and the tariffs on Mexico and Canada and the United States went to zero. We had a free trade deal in 212 with South Korea. This never comes up, but the tariff on South Korean goods coming the US is zero. The tariff on us, exports going to South Korea is zero because we have a free trade agreement, and it's worked out pretty well with South Korea. Now we're not the only ones doing this. Countries all over the world. The EU is a total free trade zone in economy almost as big as the United States that used to have tariff levels between countries. Now it's one big free trade zone. So if you take the entire world economy, that 9% weighted average tariff of the early 90s, which was down from maybe 2025, 30, pre World War Two in this Smoot Hawley era, was down to 2.25% by the time that Donald Trump took office, the first time around in 2017 now 2.25% is really a rounding error. It's hardly when you have $33 trillion worth of goods moving around, you know, container ships and bulk carriers and so forth all around the world, and air freight and the rest of it, rail. 2% tariff is not any kind of big deal, as I say in some of the things I write, it's not a hill of beans. So somehow, though 45 years ago, Trump got the idea that tariffs were causing a problem and that we had trade deficits, not because our costs were going up owing to bad monetary policy, but because the other guy was cheating. Remember, this is Trump's whole view of the world. It's a zero sum game. I win, you lose, and if I'm not winning, is because you're cheating. Okay? In other words, I'm inherently going to win. America's inherently going to win unless the other guy is cheating. Now, Trump sees the world the same way that I think he looked at electrical and plumbing contractors in the Bronx, you know, in the 1980s and 1990s when he was developing his various Real Estate projects. These are pretty rough and tumble guys. It's a wild, easy way to make a living. So there's a lot of, you know, there's a lot of pretty rough baseball that's played that mentality that the other guy is always trying to screw me, the other guy's always cheating, the other guy's preventing me from winning, is, is his basic mentality. And it's not Applicable. It's not useful at all to try to understand the global economy. Try to understand why America's $29 trillion economy is not chugging along as strongly and as productively as it should be, why real wages are not making the gains that workers should be experiencing and so forth. So he ought to get out of this whole trade, tariff trade war thing, which he started, I don't know how he does, it's a little late, and focus on the problems on the home front. In other words, our trade problem has been caused by too much spending, too much borrowing, too much money printing on the banks of the Potomac. It's not basically caused in Beijing or Tokyo or Seoul or even Brussels, the European Union. And we need to get back to the basic and the real culprit, which is the Federal Reserve and its current chairman, Paul, if he wants to attack somebody, go after the Fed. Go after Paul. But ought to give them a mandate to bring inflation to zero and to stop fooling around with everything else and to stop monetizing the public debt that is buying government debt, take care of your own backyard first before you start taking, yeah, sure, yeah, exactly. You know, I've been in this for a long time. I start, as I said, I started on Capitol Hill. There have been a lot of protectionist politicians, but they always argued free trade is good, but it has to be fair trade. And you know, we have this example in our steel industry, for instance, where we producers abroad are competing unfairly for one reason or another. But the point I'm getting to is they always said this is an exceptional case. Normally we would go for free trade, but we got to have protection here. We got to have a temporary quota. Even when I was in the Reagan administration, we had a big argument about voluntary quotas on Japanese car exports, and I was totally against it. I thought the US industry needed to get its act together, get its costs down. Needed to get the UAW under control, because it had pushed wages, you know, way, way, way too high terms of total cost. But they argued, yeah, well, you're right, but we have to have 10 years in order to allow things to be improved and adjusted and catch up. So this is only temporary. This is just this. Yes, this is protectionism, but it's temporary. It's expedient that we can avoid and so therefore we'll make an exception. But there is no one, and most of these people were, you know, in the payroll of the unions, or they were congressmen from south to South Carolina going to bad for the textile industry, or congressman from Ohio going to bat for the steel industry, whatever, but there was no one who ever came along and said tariffs are big, beautiful things, and we need to have permanent high tariffs, because that's the way we're going to get prosperity back in United States. It's a dumb idea. It's wrong. It's disproven by history and people. Even though Trump has done a lot of things that I like you know, he's got rid of dei he's got rid of all of this green energy, climate crisis nonsense, all of that that he's done is to the good when you come to this basic question, how do we get prosperity in America? The answer is, through free market capitalism, by getting the government out of the way, by balancing the budget and by telling the Fed not to, you know, inflate the economy to the disadvantage that it has today. That's how you get there. And Trump is not a real Republican. Trump is basically what I call a status. He's for big government, right wing status. Okay, there's left wing, Marxist status, then there's right wing status. But you know, all of this tariff business is going to create so much corruption that it's almost impossible to imagine, because every day there's someone down there, right now, I can guarantee it at the, you know, treasury department or at Commerce department saying, but we got special circumstances here in terms of the parts that we're making for aircraft that get assembled in South Korea or something, and we need special relief. Yes, every industry you're doing is putting in for everybody's going to be there the lobby. This is the greatest dream that the Washington lobbyist community ever had. Trump is literally saying he put this reciprocal tariff. You saw the whole schedule. That he had on that easel in the White House on April 2, immigration day. It was called Liberation Day. I called it Demolition Derby Day. There was a reciprocal tariff for every single country in the world based on a phony formula that said, if we have $100 million deficit with somebody, half of that was caused by cheating. So we're going to put a tariff in place closes half of the difference. I mean, just nonsense, Schoolboy idiocy. Now it is. I mean, I know everybody said, Oh, isn't it great? We've finally got rid of the bad guys, Biden, he's terrible, and the Democrats, I agree with all that, but we replaced one set of numb skulls with another set. Unfortunately, Republicans know better, but they're so intimidated, apparently buffaloed by Trump at the moment, that they're going along with this. But they know you don't put 145%tariff on anything. I mean, it's just nuts. David, I feel like you're telling us what you really think and absolutely love that.    Keith Weinhold  41:04   Interestingly, there is a Ronald Reagan clip about tariffs out there in a speech that he gave from Camp David, and it's something that's really had new life lately. In fact, we played the audio of that clip before you came onto the show today, Reagan said that he didn't like tariffs and that they hurt every American worker and consumer as Reagan's economic advisor in the White House. Did you advise him on that?    David Stockman  41:27   Yes, I did. And also I can give you a little anecdote that I think people will find interesting. Yeah, the one time that he deviated in a big way from his free trade commitments was when he put the voluntary export quota on the Japanese auto industry. That was big. I don't remember the exact number, but I think it said they couldn't export more than 1.2 million cars a year, or something like that the United States. And the number was supposed to adjust over time, but we had huge debates in the Cabinet Room about those things, and at the end of the day, here's what he said. He said, You know, I've always been for open trade, free trade. I've always felt it has to be fair trade. But, you know, in this case, the Japanese industry came to us and asked for voluntary quotas, so I didn't put up a trade barrier. I'm only accommodating their request. Well, the Japanese did come to him and ask. They did, but only when they were put up to it by the protectionists in the Reagan administration who, on this took them on the side, you know, their negotiators and maybe their foreign minister. I can't remember exactly who commerce secretary and said, If you don't ask for voluntary quotas, we're going to unleash Capitol Hill and you're going to get a real nasty wall put up against your car. So what will it be? Do you want to front for voluntary quotas? Are we going to unleash Congress? So they came to Reagan and said they were the Japanese industry said they're recommending that he impose voluntary restraints on auto exports. That was just a ruse. He wasn't naive, but he believed what you told him. He believed that everybody was honest like he was, and so he didn't understand that the Japanese industry that was brought to meet with him in the Oval Office had been put up to, it been threatened with, you know, something far worse, mandatory quote is imposed by Congress. But anyway, it's a little anecdote. What happened? On the other hand, he continued to articulate the case for small government sound money. We had deficit problems, but he always wanted a balanced budget. It was just hard to get there politically. And he believed that capitalism produces prosperity if you let capitalism work and keep the government out of the marketplace. And there is no bigger form of intervention and meddling and disruption in the capitalist system, in the free market, in the marketplace, than quotas on every product in every country at different levels. They're going to have 150 different countries negotiating bilaterally deals with the United States. That's the first thing that's ridiculous. They can't happen. The second thing is they're going to come up with deals that don't amount to a hill of beans, but they'll say, we have a deal. The White House will claim victory. Let me just give one example. As we know, one of the big things that Trump did in the first administration was he renegotiated NAFTA. And NAFTA was the free trade agreement between Mexico, Canada, United States. Before he started in 2017 the trade deficit of the US with Mexico and Canada combined with 65 billion. And he said, That's too big, and we got to fix NAFTA. We have got to rebalance the provisions so that the US comes out, not on the short end of the stick 65 billion. So they negotiated for about a year and a half, they announced a new deal, which he then renamed the United States, Mexico, Canada agreement, usmca, and, you know, made a big noise about it, but it was the same deal with the new name. They didn't change more than 2% of the underlying machinery and structure, semantics. Well now, so now we fast forward to 2024 so the usmca Trump's pride and joy, his the kind of deal that he says he's going to seek with every country in the world is now four years into effect. And what is the trade deficit with Canada and Mexico today, it's 230 5 billion okay? It's four times higher now than it was then when he put it in place. Why? Because we have a huge trade deficit with Mexico. Why because, you know, average wages there are less than $10 an hour, and they're $40 an hour here. That's why it has nothing to do with a bad trade deal. It has to do with cost differences.    Keith Weinhold  46:27   David, this has been great, and as we're winding down here, we have a lot of real estate investor listeners tell us what this administration's overall policies, not just tariffs, but overall policies, mean for future employment, and then tell us about your highly regarded contra corner newsletter.    David Stockman  46:45   Well, those are that's a big question. I think it doesn't mean good, because if they were really trying to get America back on track our economy, they would be fighting inflation tooth and nail to get it down to zero. They would be working day and night to implement what Musk came up with in the doge that is big spending cuts and balancing the budget. They're not doing that. They're letting all these announcements being made, but they're not actually cutting any spending. They would not be attempting to impose this huge apparatus of tariffs on the US economy, but they're not doing that. So I'm not confident we were going in the wrong direction under Biden, for sure, and we're going in an even worse direction right now under Trump. So that's the first thing. The second thing is, I put out a daily newsletter called David stockman's Country corner. You can yes signers on the internet, but this is what we write about every day, and I say A plague on both their houses, the Democrats, the Republicans. They're all, in many ways, just trying to justify government meddling, government spending, government borrowing, government money printing, when we would do a lot better if we went in the opposite direction, sound money, balanced budgets, free markets and so forth, so. And in the process, I'm not partisan. You know, I was a Republican congressman. I was a budget director of the Reagan administration. I have been more on the Republican side, obviously, over my career than the Democrats, but now I realize that both parties are part of the problem, and I call it the uni party when push comes to shove, the uni party has basically been for a lot of wars abroad and a lot of debt at home, and a lot of meddling in the economy That was unnecessary. So if you look at what I write every day, it tries to help people see through the pretenses and the errors of the unit party, Democrats and Republicans. And in the present time, I have to focus on Trump, because Trump is making all the noise.    Keith Weinhold  48:59   100% Yes, it sure has kept life and the news cycle exciting, whether someone likes that news or not. Well, David, this has been great. In fact, it sounds a lot like what Reagan might have told me, perhaps because you were a chief economic informant for him, smaller government, letting the free trade flow and lower inflation. Be sure to check out David stockman's contra corner newsletter if you like what we've been talking about today, just like it was last year, David, it's been a real pleasure having you on GRE today.    David Stockman  49:30   Well, thank you very much. And these are important issues, and we've got to stay on top of them.   Keith Weinhold  49:41   Oh, yeah. Well, David Stockman truly no mincing words. He doesn't like tariffs. In summary, telling GRE listeners that the problem with trade imbalances is inflation attack that instead quell inflation, don't impose tariffs. A lot of developing nations and China have distinct advantages over manufacturing in the United States, besides having the trained labor and all the factories and systems in place, think about how many of these nations have built in lower costs they don't have to deal with these regulatory agencies, no EPA, no OSHA, and not even a minimum wage law to have to comply with. And here in the US get this, 80% of American workers agree that the US would benefit from more manufacturing jobs, but almost 75% disagree that they would personally be better off working in a factory themselves. That's according to a joint Cato Institute in YouGov survey. It's sort of like how last century, Americans lamented the demise of the family farm, yeah, but yet, they sure didn't want to work on a farm themselves. Now there are some types of manufacturing, like perhaps pharmaceuticals or computer chips that could likely be onshore, because those items are high value items. Their value can exceed the cost of being produced in the USA, but a lot of these factory goods, not again. If these topics interest you do a search for David stockman's contra corner, or you can directly visit David stockman's contra corner.com. Big thanks to the father of Reaganomics, David Stockman on the show this week. As for next week, we're back more toward the center of real estate investing. Until then, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream. Y   Unknown Speaker  51:42   nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC   Keith Weinhold  52:02   You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info, oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access and it's got paywalls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers, it's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters. And I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point because even the word abbreviation is too long. My letter usually takes less than three minutes to read, and when you start the letter, you also get my one hour fast real estate video. Course, it's all completely free. It's called The Don't quit your Daydream. Letter, it wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now. Just text GRE to 66866, while it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text GRE to 66866   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, getricheducation.com.  

Get Rich Education
552: Terrible—Home Sales Now Worst Since 2009

Get Rich Education

Play Episode Listen Later May 5, 2025 41:52


In this power-packed episode, Keith delivers a masterclass on the current real estate landscape, blending personal insights with market-changing trends. From the nuanced world of home flooring to the pulse of national housing markets, Keith breaks down complex real estate dynamics into actionable intelligence. The episode reveals a market at a critical inflection point: declining home sales, shifting apartment dynamics, and emerging investment opportunities. Keith provides listeners with a strategic roadmap to navigate these changes, emphasizing the importance of adaptability and informed decision-making. Exclusive Takeaway: Get Rich Education offers free investment coaching to help you turn these insights into wealth-building action. Your real estate success journey starts here. Free Resources: Connect with a free GRE investment coach at GREinvestmentcoach.com Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/552 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREmarketplace.com/Coach Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments:  You get paid first - Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai    Keith Weinhold  0:00   Keith, welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, there's been a real estate tragedy in my family. Then this past month, national home sales have plummeted to their worst level since 2009 then something is happening in the market for apartment buildings that shocked everybody and more all today on get rich education.    Speaker 1  0:24   Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, and delivers a new show every week. Since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guessing the top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast, sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com   Speaker 2  1:09   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.    Keith Weinhold  1:25   welcome to GRE from Montreal, Quebec to Montrose, Michigan and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are back inside get rich education here in our 11th year, you're listening to one of America's longest running the most listened to shows on real estate investing, indeed, the 552nd consecutive week before we delve into the sad topic of terrible national home sales, the worst since 2009 which is a serious topic, first, a bit More of a light hearted topic, a real estate tragedy of sorts, has taken place inside my family, right inside my parents home, the same home that I grew up in. And you know, it's been a while since I had a good rant in an episode. So before we get to our core content today, my parents just replaced the nice, plush, warm, soft, inviting wall to wall carpets in both of their living rooms with laminate, hardwood floor. Oh no, this is disastrous. I mean, this is an abject property atrocity right in the home that I grew up in. Now, if you're a longtime listener, you know what I'm talking about. If you're newer here, it's probably been a couple years since I mentioned it. You know, everyone has their own quirks and idiosyncrasies, like you have certain ways of thinking about some things in your life, where you just know that you're in the minority of society with how you behave with that thing. Yeah, there are some things that you're counter cultural on. It's part of your unique personality, and it's what makes you you, well, one of my real estate idiosyncrasies and unorthodoxies is that I love deep, plush carpet, not hardwood floor, and hey, I don't expect you to agree with me on this. It's what makes me different. Now we'll talk about the flooring that you choose to use in your rental units in a moment and compare their prices and when you might want to use those things and when you don't. But we're just talking about home here, the flooring that you live on your primary residence. Why would anyone replace carpeting with hardwood, plank flooring? It is uninviting. It is cold, hard, and it even transfers noise more than quiet, comfortable, plush carpeting. And yes, hardwood floors can be heated. And some homeowners do that. They use what are called radiant heating systems, and they are installed beneath the floor, and these systems use either electric cables or sometimes mats or hydronic tubing, which are pipes filled with hot water in order to radiate that heat upwards into the floor. Now, something like that is what you'd be more likely to do in your own home, and not a rental unit, but even if you do that, hard floors are still, well, hard and noisier, like I just don't get it deep, plush carpet is superior. I'm not talking about the shag carpet that was popular 50 years ago, just plush carpet that hit its peak. In the 1990s Oh yes, that is the stuff I'm telling you. I mean plush carpet. That is the stuff that turns a house into a home. Well, my parents did just the opposite. They turned their home back into a house. Oh, dear. And, hey, it's their home. They can do whatever they want. Now, what are the main reasons that I hear about why people prefer laminate, hardwood flooring or luxury vinyl plank flooring over carpeting? That's what the majority of people want to do, and that's not what I want. Well, one reason, and this is the main reason that my parents did it, is that it looks nicer. In their opinion, looks nicer. I don't get it at all. I mean, even most cheap $1,000 apartments have been using like hardwood, plank flooring for close to 25 years now, there's nothing special about the way that it looks. Most of it anyway, some of it can look pretty cool. Now, some people want the hardwood because, well, they say that it's easier to clean. Easy to clean. Why in the world would you have trouble keeping your own home clean? I mean, if there's any space in the world that you keep clean, it is your humble abode. Now I know that it's easier for me to say that because I don't own any pets and still don't have kids, maybe you do replacing carpet for hard flooring is just an unspeakable act. What an uncalled for abhorrence, a repugnance. Other reasons that people say they prefer hardwood or vinyl plank over carpet is that it is allergy friendly. All right. Well, I don't have any trouble with allergies. But here's the thing that's even more confounding, most people that install a hard flooring. Well, the next thing that they do, and this is exactly what my mom and dad say that they're going to do next now that they put the hardwood floor in, is find some area rugs and cover it up so people put carpet on top of the hardwood floor anyway, but then yet, that carpet cannot be plush and padded underneath like real Carpet would be, because it's just like a piece that's rolled out, plus it cancels out, then all these pet friendly and allergy free benefits, plus it might be even harder to clean, because now you got to clean both the carpet and the edges of the room where the stupid hardwood flooring is showing I mean, it makes zero sense, so this just all compounds how I am confounded on how almost everybody in the world, it seems they want hardwood floor. I feel like I'm the only person in the world sticking up for carpeting. I do not expect you to agree with me here. It is just my, I guess, oddball preference. I also do a lot of exercises down on the floor. That's where the best high intensity interval training workouts take place. Down on the floor. Plush carpet is best for that too. Oh, the myriad reasons that carpet is superior, I'll tell you. Well, I'll next be staying at my parents place in two months, as I'll spend a lot of July there, and that's when I will first be witness to this transgression, this incomprehensible abomination. I mean, it is almost malfeasance.   The reason that I care more about this than most sons of parents would is that my parents have lived in the same home since I was age one. I have a lot of memories there, and when I visit my parents in rural upstate Pennsylvania, I sleep in the same exact bedroom that I have since age one. Really special continuity there. What's more important than the flooring changing in the two living rooms is that, like I've told you before, I won the parent lottery, I did not have an affluent upbringing, but my brother and I had a top 1% childhood anyway, because we have two married, committed parents that are still together, still healthy and loved us. I phone my parents at least weekly, and I send them messages all the time. I guess it's a good time to think about that as this is the last episode before Mother's Day, and if you did not win the parent lottery, like I did in the way that I just described. Well, the good news is that you can do something about it. You can provide that same stable, nurturing environment to your children, and that way, they will win the parent lottery. Now, when it comes to. My rental properties, I do have hardwood flooring virtually everywhere and in every property, from single family rentals up to apartment buildings, because I don't have to live on it now, I probably do have some bedrooms in those rentals where there's carpeting, yeah, I mean hard floors that makes sense for the durability in a rental. I mean, with rentals, you might have to replace the carpet every three to five years. That is cost prohibitive. So for real estate investing, hardwood flooring, which, again, it's really a trend that became widespread in America about 25 years ago. I mean, that trend was really good for real estate investors. Tenants actually prefer this intolerable condition, perhaps much like you do. Now let me talk about five main types of flooring, how much they cost per square foot, and where you might want to use different flooring types in different situations, as we've already established. For me, it is carpet, carpet, carpet, wall to wall, everywhere, except for kitchens, bathrooms and maybe the laundry room. Seriously, though, for you and how you want to think about this and these prices include the total for both the material and the installation is for hardwood plank flooring, which is that atrocity that my parents committed. Expect to pay about $25 per square foot. And of course, all these costs are going to vary based on the wood species, the finish and the part of the world that you're in for LVP, luxury vinyl plank that's about $8 installed. LVP is a good choice because it mimics the hardwood esthetics. It's waterproof, and as you can see there, its cost is less than half of that of hardwood plank. So LVP can be a good choice for bathrooms and maybe a kitchen, and though the name luxury might be cheapened or diluted somewhat in that name, LVP, it's a bit over named. I suppose it's that that name is given to help distinguish it from vinyl flooring. Because when you hear the term vinyl flooring, what do you think of you think of sheets, something that comes in a roll in sheet vinyl only costs maybe about $5 installed. And then carpeting installed, my favorite at home, but not in rentals that costs about $6 per square foot. And then the last major flooring type is tile, and the cost of tile is really all over the place because of its different material types. Tile can be made of so many things, going from cheapest to most expensive ceramic. That's about $20 per square foot. Again, this is the cost installed for both the materials and the time it takes to install it, porcelain, 20 to 25 natural stone tile can be 40 bucks or more, and then glass tile can be a little more expensive than that, yet. So those are the approximate prices for your flooring, what you can expect to pay because, of course, plank flooring and tile, it doesn't have to be replaced as often as carpet and sheet vinyl. That's something to keep in mind when you think about those prices. But yeah, I have bought apartment buildings before, where, when I bought it, every unit was carpeted, and then as each tenant moved out, one by one, I would have my property managers contractor replace it with hard plank flooring, the radiant heat that you'd place beneath hard flooring that I described earlier, that is cost prohibitive to put in a long term rental in almost every case, that's something you'd only want to do in your own home, or maybe, just maybe a luxury short term rental in a cold climate, Like a ski resort town or something like that. So yes, you have now learned about one of my odd quirks, and you've learned about flooring types. Another of my idiosyncrasies is my preference for back scratching rather than massages. But that has nothing to do with real estate, and we've got more important topics to move on to heck. Come on, though, you might have some weird quirks, even more weird than mine. In fact, maybe real estate investors in general have more quirks than mainstream society. Because, you know, real estate investing is a little countercultural itself, right? We own things that pay us to own it every month with mainstream society and 401, KS, you have to pay it with every paycheck. Now. Who in the heck would do that?    The title of this week's episode has to do with the fact that spring existing home sales are now at their worst level since two. 2009 the worst in all that time. Now, and understand when I say home sales, that means the volume of sales, the number of transactions. We're not talking about the prices now, the outlook for home prices is also less rosy now as well. I'll get to that shortly. But why are the number of property transactions at their lowest level in 16 years like this? Let's listen in to Diana Olick at CNBC. She's talking about March, but that's the newest month reported. You got to remember that real estate stats run in arrears more so than most essay classes. This report is a real bellwether for the spring housing market and how this year could turn out. This is a little over a minute, and then I'll be back to comment.   We also have some housing data just cross the tape. Diana olik Has that for us. Diana, Well, David, existing home sales in March fell a much wider than expected, 5.9% from February to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.0 2 million units sales down 2.4% from March of last year, and that is the slowest March sales pace since 2009 the Great Recession. Now remember, this count is based on closing, so its contracts likely signed in January and February, when mortgage rates were over 7% but it was before the market volatility of April, supply is rising fast, 1.3 3 million units for sale at the end of March, up nearly 20% from the year before. That makes a four month supply, which is still on the lean side. Six months is considered a balanced market. More inventory and slower sales are starting to put the chill on prices. The median price of an existing home sold in March was $403,700 that's still an all time high for the month, but it's only up 2.7% from last March, and that annual comparison is shrinking. First time, buyers made up 32% of the market, the same as last year, they should be around 40% all cash dropped to 26% from 28th the year before, but investors house steady at 15% of sales. Sarah, all right, have a bad combo, weaker sales, higher prices. Diana, thank you very much. Diana Olek.   okay, we just learned that the latest month shows the slowest spring housing market for that month since 2009 and that the supply of available homes is up 20% since last year. All right? Well, if the supply of homes is up, then why is the volume of sales down? Well, it's the same reasons that we've had for a couple years soured affordability and the ongoing lock in effect, and that soured affordability is just more set in I hope you caught it. Note that this 16 year low in sales volume is for existing homes, okay, brand new home sales are healthier. The nation is still undersupplied of housing Overall, though, with four months of supply, of course, six months is that balance point. Now, the worst news here, with this low sales volume is not affecting the homeowner or the investor. It is affecting the renter somewhat more, because they're having to stay as renters. But it's really tough. Just horribly bad news for people that are in the business of home sales, like realtors and other agents. Mortgage lenders are losing business too. So are title insurers, moving truck companies, furniture companies, and for those consumers in the market to buy and sell homes. It's actually troublesome news for society. Less residential mobility means less economic mobility and more people stuck in place. And how are we going to get Americans moving again? It is lower mortgage rates. It's probably not going to come from a substantial lowering of prices. Prices keep rising, as you heard in that clip, up 2.7% year over year, but as we look out in future months, you know, I can feel it. Price growth seems to be flattening out. Zillow and some other agencies have lowered their home price appreciation forecast for the year, I really keep up on this stuff in research, in my estimate is that the consensus is that there will be zero to 2% home price growth this year. That's not me saying that. That's me amalgamating what others say, and they don't always get it right, and this year still has a long way to go, but you know, there is just this sort of general malaise in the real estate market where there's not a lot of activity for primary residence buyers. In that clip, you heard that investor purchases are steady, constituting 15, one 5% Of home purchases, just like they did in the previous period. So that's what a low sales volume means, and that's who is affected. It is not a vibrant market out there. I still don't see anything on the horizon that could make home prices jump as much as 10% this year, not even substantially lower mortgage rates could do that. In my opinion, tariffs impact to construction costs over the next few months. You know, it's probably quite a bit less than you think. The prevailing current view among the number of developers for now is that construction costs will increase between one and 3% on wood frame builds. And wood frame builds that represents the vast majority of apartment and build to rent projects and now that one to 3% that's by no means immaterial, but it's also not some crazy surge like some headlines have suggested. So as you're out there listening to media reports on the housing market, as you can see, you've got to listen closely to what you're being told. The volume of sales and the median price are two very different things, and they're both moving in different directions, sales down, price up, also the existing home market and the new build home market are, of course, different, but you got to listen closely sometimes in order to pick that up. That also helps to be attentive to if you hear that new build prices are falling, you got to think about what that means, because in recent years, builders have responded to weak affordability by building smaller homes to try to make them more affordable, so they might be selling for actually more money on a square footage basis, even though their price is lower, it's because the homes are smaller. And then another thing is, when you hear that sellers are cutting prices, be attentive to what that really means. For example, say that median home values in an area are 450k and if a seller advertises a perfectly median home for 475k therefore it's a little overpriced, and say it doesn't sell in a month, and then they drop the price to 460 and sell it for that well, then what they've done is that they cut the price, yet at the same time, they moved the median price up from 450 to 460 so despite a price cut, that was about a 2% gain in sale price there in That example, that is how a price cut results in moving up in areas median price. So there's a lot to be attentive to when you look at news like that. As volatile as stocks have been lately, a lot of people are grateful to have their dollars invested in really stable real estate. When Stocks are volatile, the rent just keeps coming in. In fact, in a let's look at history over hunch's vein, when stocks crash, which all define as a loss of 20% or more, what happens to home prices now, a while ago, here on the show, I discussed what historically happens with home prices during recessions. But this is different. This is what happens during stock market crashes, because the stock market is not the economy. Aside from the one bad mortgage blow up of a housing market induced economic recession from 2008 to 2010 which was bad. Home prices do not go down when the stock market crashes. In fact, real estate prices usually rise when stocks plunge hard. Let's look at the five other times that this has happened since 1980 and we'll take the S, p5, 100 index high to its low. All right, in november of 1980 the S P was at 135 points. And doesn't it sound funny to say that that sounds like a ridiculously small number? Yes, the S P was at 135 points. Then by August of 1982 almost two years later, it tanked to 109 during that time, home prices went up 7.2% then in the late 80s, it was August of 1987 the S P was at 329. In November of that year, it fell to 245, I mean, that was a massive stock drop of almost 35% in just about three months, the result, home prices went down 1.7% but that happens almost every year, from summer to late autumn. In August of 2000 the S P was at 1485 by February of 03 it went down to 803 37 I mean, that was a major stock crash. During that time, home prices went up 11 and a half percent, and then we got into COVID. Times, March of 2020, 3277 was the level April of 2020, just a month later, down to 2653 home prices went up 2.1% during that month. And then finally, December of 2021, 4675 October of 2022, 3726 that was a big stock market drawdown during that time, home prices went up 5.3% so there you go. The stable nature of real estate is something that's a really valuable attribute during massive stock market drops. And I think there are a lot of people that don't realize that since World War Two, home prices have only fallen significantly one time, and it was that awful period around 2008 now, in fact, you know something interesting related to this, last month, I took that cog railway tour that goes to the top of Pikes Peak in Colorado. You might have taken that train before. It's pretty popular. It's a nice way to spend an afternoon. Well, on that cog railway tour, I got talking to a passenger. He was there with his wife and family, and this was an intelligent, professional guy. He worked in the VE printing space, so he was pretty interesting to talk to. I asked him about that. And this guy, this passenger on the train, he asked me about real estate, once he knew that that's my field. He said the strangest thing to me, but I think a lot of people think this way. He asked me, don't real estate prices have a 10 year cycle? They have a price correction and go down every 10 years, and then the values start going back up again. What I didn't laugh in this guy sure wasn't stupid. I mean, hey, he's in the 3d printing space, and maybe I have some misconceptions about his field too. But it's almost as unlikely that home prices will fall appreciably than that grocery store prices would fall significantly. Both things really unlikely. I don't know how people think things like this.    To summarize what you just learned in this segment, hardwood flooring in the living room is an abomination of inhumane proportions. Existing home sales volume hit low levels not seen since 2009 home prices are still rising, but the pace of that growth is slowing, and when the stock market takes a big hit, real estate historically performs well most of the time. We're talking about residential real estate in the one to four unit space so far coming up a trend in the larger apartment building world that shocked a lot of experts. That's next. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get rich education.    You know what's crazy? Your bank is getting rich off of you. The average savings account pays less than 1% it's like laughable. Meanwhile, if your money isn't making at least 4% you're losing to inflation. That's why I started putting my own money into the FFI liquidity fund. It's super simple. Your cash can pull in up to 8% returns and it compounds. It's not some high risk gamble like digital or AI stock trading. It's pretty low risk because they've got a 10 plus year track record of paying investors on time in full every time. I mean, I wouldn't be talking about it if I wasn't invested myself. You can invest as little as 25k and you keep earning until you decide you want your money back. No weird lockups or anything like that. So if you're like me and tired of your liquid funds just sitting there doing nothing. Check it out. Text family. 266, 866, to learn about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund again. Text family. 266, 86    Hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine at Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start now while it's on your mind at Ridge lendinggroup.com, that's Ridge lendinggroup.com.   Speaker 3  29:53   This is the king of commercial real estate, Dolph de Roos. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold. And don't Quit your Daydream.   Keith Weinhold  30:10   Welcome back to get rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, being springtime, it's also graduation time. If you're looking for a gift idea for a graduate, consider doing what I did. My niece is about to graduate from high school. That's my brother's oldest daughter. I gave her two gifts, cash plus gold cash because, I mean, come on, any 18 year old wants something that they can use. You want to give them something that they want. But I gave gold as well, not because it's in a massive bull market right now, which it is, but saving that can help her tangibly see and understand the diminished purchasing power of the dollar over time. Be mindful, dollars are just currency, but gold is money. So yes, I like my niece, but apparently not enough to give her a little rock turnkey property. As we know, wannabe homeowners have been roughed up with poor buyer affordability that started around 2022 they must either patiently wait for Mr. Beast to give them a home, or they need to keep renting apartment demand just could not keep up with 2023 and 2020 four's massive surge in new apartment construction that left a lot of units vacant. It meant that any new renters were quickly absorbed, and as a result, rent growth stayed flatter than a soda left open for a week. Builders overachieved, and renters under showed back then, but in 2025 and 2026 new apartment construction deliveries are going to keep falling from their peak even in 2027 that's probably going to happen. And we can already project this, because it takes two years, basically, to build an apartment from permitting to completion and permits are down. The dynamics of the apartment market are pretty straightforward. It takes around two to three months to turn permits into construction starts, and then it takes an additional 19 months to complete and deliver new units. So that's the two years or so that I'm talking about. The past high housing starts have therefore shown up as completions here. In recent months, the high completions are predominantly in southern states, and that's exactly why apartment rents have been falling in places like Atlanta, Charlotte, Tampa, Dallas and Austin. Even though those are the places that people are moving to, oppositely in California, it is especially tough to get permits, and tougher even yet to get apartments completed, there will be acute housing shortages in California. If recent past trends hold, then homelessness is going to be an ongoing problem. Moderate income workers cannot make ends meet, and therefore they're going to leave the state, California simply needs to build more housing to reduce the homeless problem and help out the moderate income workers. The real surprise is that today, national demand for apartments keeps coming in at high levels that defy even the most bullish forecasts. Real page recorded the best first quarter for net absorption in more than 25 years. It was 138,000 units. Costar called it the second best q1 in more than 25 years with 128,000 units. And now those numbers don't mean much to you until you realize that this century apartment demand absorption, you know, is typically in a range of 30 to 80,000 units per quarter, and we're looking at double, triple or quadruple that now. And what all that really means is that there is a surprisingly healthy level of well qualified demand for US apartments. All right, so this net absorption that I'm talking about, which is move ins minus move outs, that being over 100,000 units like this, that's something that you might see in busier leasing seasons, like towards summer q2 and q3 but rarely in q1 and apartment demand. It came in hot in nearly every region of the country. So what is going on here? What are the reasons for this surging apartment demand? I mean, sure, for one, it's the one that you already realized. Eyes, fewer people can buy houses. But it's more than just fewer people can buy houses, it's also, if you build it, they will come. I mean, cranes have dotted skylines in US cities for the past few years, apartment construction soared. It's also wage increases. They have outpaced inflation, and both of those have outpaced apartment rent growth, helping with affordability. Another reason for surging apartment demand are those baked in demographics. We had this surge in US births from 1990 to 2010 and that means that think about the age that they are now. That means this group is hitting peak. Let me get out of my parents house age. A whole lot of Netflix accounts are being split into those. People are moving out and getting an apartment. Well, with this in mind a surge of apartment demand in fewer new apartments being built over the next two years. You know, you think about what this means for a while here I've discussed how in real estate, today's best opportunities are one to four unit turnkey properties, especially new builds and also burr properties. I mean, those things have been the MVPs of this cycle, and you keep finding those properties and buying them at GRE marketplace, but apartment buildings, I mean, they're probably warming up in the bullpen by now, I might be able to add those to the mix soon, and to add those to the list about where the opportunity is, because apartment building values have been suppressed Ever since mortgage rates spiked in 2022 but it's probably not time to swing the bat quite yet. Of course it is in some cases. There are always some exceptions, but when you look around today, you know you got to consider apartment landlords. They still got to commonly offer concessions to fill their rent rolls. They're having to give away a free month's rent here and waived some fees over there. But demand, you know, it really tangibly, is starting to catch up with supply now, and when it comes to rent growth, it's still been pretty pathetic for apartments. Okay, apartments still lag behind single family rentals. Now apartment rents, they're only up a week, 1.1% year over year. Really weak. That's the latest figure, a paltry 1.1% apartment rent growth less than inflation then, and that's per real page market analytics, incredibly that 1.1% is actually the highest apartment rent growth rate in 21 months. So the bottom line here is that the apartment market, it has been through the wringer. They've been beaten up by rate hikes and drowned in supply and ghosted by demand. But finally, after years of gloom, the clouds are starting to part for apartment buildings, supply slows and demand grows here at get rich education, you know, I'm trying to give you the knowledge in the tools that I wish I had when I began, where the opportunities are, how to think about real estate, how to know about how you get paid. I mean, knowing all that sooner really would have made my life easier, like frameworks through which to understand real estate investing and the resources so that you can make it actionable and build your real estate portfolio. You'll notice that our provider network at GRE marketplace has recently expanded, and perhaps the best tool of all, that's our free in house investment coaching. We make it easier and hold your hand through the process of buying your first investment property. If you're a more experienced investor, our coaching helps you assess and evaluate the GRE Income Property inventory and help you decide which geographies seem to be most conducive to your goals, and of course, find that real estate pays five ways. Kind of property. Don't let uncertainty prevent you from taking action, because GRE coaching is free access those off market deals. There's no agent that has to be compensated. You'll get free help along your journey, from making the offer, submitting your earnest money, inspection, appraisal, your management agreement, what your closing day is like, and more or perhaps the coaching will help you decide that it's not the right time for you to add income property based on your own unique circumstances. We help you do it all and make it easy. I often like to leave you with something actionable for a free GRE investment coaching Strategy Session customized just exactly to you. Start at GREinvestment coach.com until next week. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.    Speaker 4  40:03   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC exclusively.   Keith Weinhold  40:27   You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info, oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access and it's got paywalls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies, disclaimers, it's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read, and when you start the letter, you also get my one hour fast real estate video. Course, it's all completely free. It's called The Don't quit your Daydream. Letter, it wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now. Just text GRE 268, 66 while it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text GRE 266, 866,   Speaker 1  41:42   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, get richeducation.com

Get Rich Education
551: Is Florida Real Estate Doomed?

Get Rich Education

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 28, 2025 38:59


Keith discusses strategies for building wealth in real estate, emphasizing efficient property operations and leveraging. He suggests setting tenant occupancy limits, sub-metering utilities, and increasing rentable space. He explains the leverage ratio, which measures the relationship between debt and equity, and advises maintaining a high ratio for better returns.  Hear his take on the Florida's real estate market, including falling property values, oversupply, and rising insurance premiums. Despite these issues, Keith remains optimistic about Florida's long-term potential due to its population growth and low taxes. Free Resources: Connect with a free GRE Investment Coach at GREinvestmentcoach.com Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/551 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai    Keith Weinhold  0:00   Welcome to GRE I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, today, the two things you've got to focus on if you're ever going to build wealth as a real estate investor, why Trump wants to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell, then, is Florida real estate doomed with falling property values, a housing oversupply, spiking insurance premiums and slowing population growth. It's episode 551, of get rich education.    Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being the flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, who delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com   Speaker 1  1:16   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  1:32   Welcome to GRE from Manhattan, Kansas to the finance capital of Manhattan in New York City, and across 188 nations worldwide, you are back inside get rich Education. I'm your host, and my name is Keith Weinhold. I think you know that by now, because we deliver weekly shows more steadily and predictably than a new tariff policy. I've got more on tariffs in a funny clip on Trump wanting to fire Jerome Powell in stories on that level soon. But first, you know one thing that I've made you mindful of lately is that a successful real estate investor needs to pay attention to two big things if you want to build wealth First, keep your property operations efficient. This is your cash flow function. And second look at your net worth statement, and be mindful that you are leveraging as many dollars as you responsibly can. Let me break down both of these for you so that you can see what I really mean here the first one, keeping your property operations efficient. That means that right up front, with a new tenant in the application, find out how many tenants are going to live there, and firmly let them know that they cannot exceed this or that they're in violation of the lease. Can you get 20% more rent, or even 50% more rent by furnishing your unit and marketing it not as a long term rental, but as a midterm rental, and targets, say health professionals that are traveling if you're in a hot rental market. Can you simply keep the rent the same, but have new incoming tenants pay a utility bill for you that you had previously been paying by sub metering your utilities. Other examples of taking the rental property you already have and making it more efficient, you know, there are more classic items, like increasing your rentable space, renting out separate on site, storage space, adding a carport, charging pet rent or just boosting the curb appeal. Can you build an adu on your property? How about appealing your property taxes or automating your rent collection. Why don't you take a look at your insurance policies? You know, a lot of them have $1,000 deductibles. Well, if you're an economically resilient investor, consider raising your deductibles to 5k that way you lower your insurance premium and increase your cash flow that way. I mean really, putting in insurance claims can be somewhat of a pain anyway. Okay, well, right. There were maybe, I don't know, 10 or 15 quick ideas for streamlining your property's operations and increasing your cash flow. Now, don't try to do every one of them, but if there's at least one or two that you can think of as low hanging fruit to go ahead and harvest with the nature of what you've got going in your portfolio. And you know, ideas like I just shared there, you can hear about that on some other real estate investing platforms. But you know what the bigger gain. Is that you can actually make they take less work and fewer people talk about these things all right, and that's the second thing I'm talking about. Yes, it is typically more profitable for you and less work for you. If, instead of all those things, you increase your leverage ratio. Now, doing this does not help your cash flow, it helps your net worth. And net worth is something that you can later convert to cash flow. And this second one increasing your leverage that's a strategy that you just don't hear about on very many real estate investing platforms. So I haven't discussed leverage ratio in a long time. So let's talk about what it is, how you can improve yours, and then what it does for building your wealth. Okay, it's the relationship between your debt and your equity, and here's how to determine yours, and then I'll tell you how you're performing. Once you've determined yours, you might even be able to do it roughly in your head. All you do is take the total value of all the real estate that you own and divide it by your loan balances. That's it. Say you own a million dollars worth of real estate and you've got 500k of total debt on all that real estate. Well, it's really simple. Just divide your value a million bucks, buy your debt, 500k and your leverage ratio is two to one. Let's just call that two. If you're looking to build wealth, that number of two is kind of low. It should be higher. It means that you've got 50% equity in your property. Now say that instead, on the day that you bought that million dollars in real estate, you only made a 200k down payment. That's awesome. A million bucks divided by 200k your leverage ratio is five. All right. Well, what are these numbers really mean? Like this two and this five? All right, it's important because it is what you use to multiply your real estate's rate of appreciation by in order to find your rate of return. So just say that your real estate appreciates 4% this year. If your leverage ratio is just two, that's only an 8% return on your skin in the game. But if you've got more debt and your leverage ratio is five, then a 4% return means you've got a 20% return on your skin in the game. Do that keep your leverage ratio high? Now, what if your leverage ratio falls all the way down to a one. What does that mean? Oh, dear, you're not really doing much to build wealth because all of your properties are paid off. You don't have any mortgages on them. So if you're down to a one, all you've got working for you, from an appreciation standpoint, is compound interest. That's the point at which you've fallen from a compound leverage instrument down to a compound interest instrument. And as we know here at GRE which is counter to the mainstream world. And yeah, the mainstream world is where you have to work all of your life at a job you hate. And that's what you'll do if all you have is unlevered compound interest, all right, and if all you have is unlevered compound interest, well, don't book your Blue Origin flight quite yet. You're not going to go on one you can count on sitting behind a desk for decades instead.   All right. Well, how do you determine your leverage ratio? Again, it's your total real estate value divided by your equity. All right. Now, how do you keep your number high? By making new purchases with 20 to 25% down payments, and by not making new purchases is another way, and instead performing cash out refinances or doing both, you know another way to increase your leverage ratio, and you might not have thought about this, it's when real estate values fall. Now, that's surely not a desirable way to do it, and it doesn't happen often, but when real estate values fall, that drops both your real estate's value and your equity value by the same amount. And interestingly, with some of the ways that I described that you can add value to a property earlier, like a carport, that makes your cash flow better, but it does make your leverage ratio worse at the same time, a way to decrease your leverage ratio fast and lower your wealth building potential fast is to make an extra principal payment of a few 1000 bucks. I mean that one act alone might drop it from, say, a 3.14 to a three point. One Two over night. But look, I don't know what real estate markets you're invested in, and if you tell me what your number is, I'm gonna know how much your future wealth building power is, because you're keeping dollars not merely compounding, but leveraged. And if your number falls below about two and a half, which means 40% equity, that's typically when I begin looking to refinance or sell an equity heavy property, to do a 1031 into a bigger one. So two and a half, that's the number where you often want to take action. And really this is all just a fresh way of approaching an enduring mantra here at GRE Oh yeah, financially free beats debt free, and this sure can make you a mutineer among the masses. And I've been talking about these mutineers sort of things a lot lately, even with a tinge of irreverence. Perhaps you might remember that three weeks ago here on the show, I discussed how, depending on your circumstance, you can even make a car loan good debt, and how a seven figure income is the new six figures and then, yes, perhaps more irreverence. Last week in your free audio course, it was pretty iconoclastic to break down in detail how a 38% rate of return from just everyday buy and hold real estate is not risky at all. And last week's episode 550 the free course, that's probably the most important episode we've done in a long time. For a beginning real estate investor, if you've got any relative or friend in your life that you know, do you have someone around you that just doesn't get it about real estate investing, that really doesn't understand why you do this, please go ahead and share last week's episode with him. Episode 550 now on to the actual person of one, Donald John Trump. And why do I always say his name that way? I don't know. I'm not sure how that ever got started, but I don't say that as often as I call myself a remorseless slack jaw. In any case, the President wants to fire the Fed Chair Jerome Powell. This is nothing new. It just flared up again. I mean, here's the latest flare up. Listen to how Trump says he's never been fond of Powell. Okay, key in on that. This is Tom llamas on NBC, nightly news. You'll also hear the voices of Trump, Powell and Elizabeth Warren in Washington.    Unknown Speaker  8:38   There's a mounting standoff between President Trump and the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. The President blasting Jerome Powell for not lowering interest rates, accusing him of playing politics. Gabe Gutierrez is at the White House with markets on edge and his trade war escalating. President Trump is lashing out at the Federal Reserve Chairman he once appointed, writing on social media that Jerome Powell's termination cannot come fast enough. I don't think he's doing the job. He's too late, always too late. Slow. And I'm not happy with him. I let him know it, and if I want him out, he'll be out of there real fast, believe me, the rebuke coming after this warning from Powell Wednesday, tariffs are highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation, the President now slamming him for not cutting interest rates to help the economy. We have a Federal Reserve Chairman that is playing politics, somebody that I've never been very fond of, actually, but he's playing politics. Powell says the Fed needs more clarity before making a move. We're never going to be influenced by any political pressure. People can say whatever they want. That's fine. Trump had previously said he would not try to replace Powell, and earlier this week, the Treasury Secretary stressed the importance of an independent federal reserve. I believe that monetary policy is a jewel box that's got to be preserved. Democrats warning of chaos if Powell is ousted, if Chairman Powell can be fired by the President of the United States, it will crash the markets in the United States. Powell, whose term as Fed Chair ends next year, has said the President does not have the legal authority to fire him. If he asked you to leave, would you go? No.   Keith Weinhold  14:38    In that clip, Trump said he's never been very fond of pow dude. You appointed him, you You appointed him as Fed Chair in your first term, where you must have liked him more than any of the other candidates. Geez. Now you may or may not like Powell, but I don't see how. He's playing politics before lowering interest rates, it's completely sensible for him to see how the tariffs play out first. The Fed has long been independent of the executive branch, so they're supposed to be Trump wants Powell to lower interest rates. And remember, Powell already cut rates a full 1% late last year, and I really don't even agree with that cut when inflation was still elevated. Trump says Powell is always too late. Well, everyone agrees that Powell was too late to raise rates back in 2022 I mean, that had to do with the whole gaff where he said that inflation is just transitory, and no one will let Powell forget that. But do you give pal credit for a soft landing? I mean, he since brought down inflation while keeping us out of a recession, that's the definition of a soft landing. You know, I don't fully give pal credit there, just a little but remember, by that point, the inflation damage has already been done. It's already hurt a lot of people, and that's not changing. Now, of course, the inflation enriched you and it enriched me, because we're the real estate investors, and inflation is always going to do that for us. What happened is that Trump is frustrated because he saw the European Central Bank just lower their rates. So that's why he wants to see that happen here too. Because of course, lower rates can help the economy, at least in the short term. So I wondered about what you think. So what I did is I asked you in our latest Instagram poll, the question I asked was simply, should Jerome Powell be retained or fired? I was a little surprised at the result. 38% of GRE Instagram poll respondents said pal should be retained, and 62% said fired. I didn't think as many as 62% would say fire Powell. My best guess is that it's because you want lower interest rates on mortgages, and my next best guess is that you want to fire Powell, not because you dislike him, but more because you want to abolish the Fed completely, which I guess means that Powell would be fired that way. Did you hear about what happened when Donald Trump called tech support? Yeah. He told them, my tariffs aren't working. Tech Support responded with, did you try turning them off and back on again.    Hey, coming up shortly is Florida real estate doomed. If you'd like to reach out to us here at the show, you can do so at get rich education.com/contact, that's whether you have a comment or a question or a concern or a content suggestion you can communicate either through voice or email on our contact page, there one thing that we don't need, respectfully, are booking agents for shows reaching out to us. You know, I used to say that we have 50 times as many guest requests to be on the show with me here as we do available spots, but now it is more than 50x and I'm really grateful to host a platform where I guess a lot of people want to join in and contribute here, but the reality is that we only have one show a week, and a lot of weeks like this one I don't have any guests at all on the Show. That page is monitored by my terrific executive assistant, Brenda, just like most everyone here at GRE She's an active real estate investor too, and again, comments, questions or concerns about the show, please contact us at the contact page and get rich education.com/contact. More. Next you're listening to get rich education.    You know what's crazy? Your bank is getting rich off of you. The average savings account pays less than 1% it's like laughable. Meanwhile, if your money isn't making at least 4% you're losing to inflation. That's why I started putting my own money into the FFI liquidity fund. It's super simple. Your cash can pull in up to 8% returns, and it compounds. It's not some high risk gamble like digital or AI stock trading. It's pretty low risk because they've got a 10 plus year track record of paying investors on time in full every time. I mean, I wouldn't be talking about it if I wasn't invested myself. You can invest as little as 25k and you keep earning until you decide you want your money back. No weird lockups or anything like that. So if you're like me and tired of your liquid funds just sitting there doing nothing. Check it out. Text family to 66866, to learn about freedom family investments, liquidity fund again. Text family to 66866    Hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine, at Ridge lending group NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start Now while it's on your mind at Ridge lendinggroup.com, that's ridgelendinggroup.com.   T. Harv Ecker  20:45   This is the millionaire minds. T. Harv Ecker, you're listening to the powerful Get rich education with Keith Weinhold. Don't quit your day dream.   Keith Weinhold  21:10   Welcome back to get rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold is Florida real estate doomed. Most anyone that pays attention has probably noticed that the Sunshine State has some areas, well, really, a number of them where property values have actually fallen. This is tied to the fact that there's an inventory over supply. There have been spiking insurance premiums tied to hurricanes. And what about the slowing population growth, and since the pandemic, Florida has had some of the fastest growing, highest appreciating markets in the entire nation. But today, in fact, there's a giant home builder there KB Homes that finds Florida's housing market. In their words, it's weak enough that they are cutting prices this spring. And KB Homes is ranked number 545 on the fortune 1000 so they're pretty sizable. And then an even larger home builder, Lennar, they basically said the same thing. The CEO of KB Homes said, quote, demand at the start of this spring selling season was more muted than what we have seen historically, despite a healthy level of traffic in our communities. So we took steps to reposition our communities to offer the most compelling value, and buyers responded favorably to those adjustments. End of the quote, yes, that is a genteel way of saying that we had to cut prices to get buyers like I mentioned to you, starting, gosh, probably a year ago or more, that other home builders have, instead of cutting prices, offered mortgage rate buy downs to buyers, be mindful though of how much your home builder is paying for those buy downs and how much you are at the closing table. Now, as we know, nationally, there's still a housing supply shortage, but KB, who does business in other states, says that Florida is the weakest, and that's due to over supply. Now let's forget about in migration for a second. Okay, that weakness is because a lot of communities are overbuilt to the point that the in migration rate cannot keep up with the over building. And of course, it's hard to generalize. Florida is a big, populous state of 23 million people. Southwest Florida has been hit the hardest that's pretty well documented. Punta Gorda, home values are down 9% year over year. Cape Coral down 7% let's go to the opposite end of the state, and Jacksonville, up in Northeast Florida that has about seven months of housing supply. It's actually pretty close to a balanced market between buyers and sellers, and then in the center of the state, Orlando, there's six months of supply that is a balanced market where there is normalcy in negotiation between buyers and sellers and a smattering of offers on one property And no one rushing and doing things like waving their inspection and then Miami Fort Lauderdale, you know, I really don't talk about them much on the show, because their prices are too high to work well as long term cash flowing rentals, both KB and Lennar say that they're keeping an eye on tariffs and that the changes to immigration have not changed their operations very much yet, because, remember, a lot of construction laborers are immigrants, and if they get deported, and then you need to hire native born US labor. Well, home prices go up, all right. Well, what about the Florida insure? Crisis. You know, over the past few years in Florida, a bunch of carriers have just withdrawn. They have pulled out of the state, farmers, insurance, bankers, insurance, Lexington insurance, all pulled out. Farmers told The New York Times that this business decision was necessary to effectively manage risk exposure. Similarly, AAA is another carrier, and they said that they're not going to renew some policies. They said the markets become challenging. 2022 catastrophic hurricane season that really contributed to an unprecedented rise in reinsurance rates, and that made it more costly for insurance companies to operate there at all. And prior to that, the market was already strained and had increased claims costs due to inflation and excessive litigation. That's what triple A said. All right, so where does this leave homeowners? Well, some are already relying on state and federal insurance programs, like the National Flood Insurance Program. There's a state carrier called citizens now, flood insurance is not required outside of a special hazard flood area, but that doesn't mean that a home is going to escape flooding if a hurricane passes through, but having insurance it does help along and accelerate the recovery process. Florida has some of the best Building Code adoption and enforcement in the country, and that fact alone has saved 1000s of homes and billions of dollars. But modern building codes are not necessarily applied retroactively to older homes. So it's those homes and properties that really have more exposure to hurricanes, those older properties, and a lot of Floridians are just skipping insurance coverage altogether so that they don't have to pay the premiums. They don't have any coverage. If you don't have a lien holder, you can do that. You can skip it, right? Well, like, How bad is it? Exactly? Just, how much have Florida insurance premiums been jacked up at this point. They've increased 60% on average between 2019, and 2023, and while homeowners and investors are primarily bearing that rising cost burden, I mean, insurers are feeling that squeeze as well. It's not just that the incidence of hurricane events is up, but premiums rise, of course, when the cost of labor in materials that it takes to replace and rebuild a damaged home have gone up as well things like concrete and structural steel and now, of course, as real estate investors, we can eventually pass on the cost of our higher insurance premiums to the tenant in the form of a rent increase, But when it goes up 60% in just four years. It's really hard to keep up with that. Florida's infrastructure is under some strain, too, and I see this when I drive the Tampa area. Every few years, I see more and more traffic. It takes me longer to get places like it takes me two or three cycles to go through a traffic light, where it only took me one cycle a few years ago. So roads and schools and utilities are under some duress to keep up with the population growth over the past decade, statewide commute times are up 11% you know, really that shouldn't be a surprise. I mean, that is common in any high growth area. Now, when it comes to insurance rate increases, there is a good chance that the worst is now over. Yes, Florida, insurance rate increases have been slowing down. The average rate increases have dropped quite a bit from 21% back in 2023 to a projected just two tenths of 1% for 2025 okay. I mean, that's basically no change expected for this year. Citizens, property insurance, that state option that I mentioned earlier, their rates are also shrinking, with some policyholders experiencing rate decreases of 5% or more. Now, I told you on a previous show that if you're looking to add rental property in Florida, go with new build properties for low insurance rates. But now I actually got a hold of some real policies between some of my properties and some of my friends properties. I've got them right in front of me here on a 1970s build single family home. I mean, the premiums can be high. We're basically paying 1% or more of the property's value in insurance premiums each year. So a 250k A valued single family rental that was built 50 years ago has a premium of $3,000 in some cases. I mean, that's a lot, but a close friend of mine recently went to GRE marketplace, got connected with one of our Florida providers. There, he bought a new construction duplex for I forget it was either 400k or 420k it's in Ocala, Florida, which is the central part of the state, and his 12 month insurance premium is $694. Wow. What a low premium for a duplex. That's why you go new build in Florida. Newer properties were built to today's construction and wind mitigation codes, and they have low insurance rates. And his duplex also appraised for 10k more than the purchase price. He has both sides already rented. And in fact, he closes on the property today, and yeah, I recommended that he go to GRE marketplace and get into Florida property, because that is indeed what he was interested in, and I sure wasn't going to stop him. So suffice to say, I clearly do not believe that Florida real estate is doomed. Florida has long been the antidote to high tax, high cost states, it has attracted snowbirds and retirees and hourly workers and increasingly younger professionals unable to crack housing markets elsewhere. Since the pandemic, millions of people have flocked to the state. I mean, when you look at a list of the fastest growing metro areas of the United States. I mean, Florida domination continues. You've still got big ones up there, like Lakeland of Florida is actually at the top of the population growth leaderboard nationally for metros with 500,000 or more people, Port St Lucie is also up there. It's third nationally, and Orlando is fourth. Three of the top four population growth metros are still in Florida, but this promise of sunshine and opportunity that has been replaced by something just a little less Sunny. I mean, you've got the rising home prices like Florida's not that cheap anymore, this diminishing affordability and this growing pressure on infrastructure, but Florida has definitely not completely lost its shine. People across the country are still moving to Florida, but not at the same rate that they did a few years ago, and the state is still seeing more people arrive then depart, besides the weather and the beaches that people love, of course, there's zero state income tax, and Governor Ron DeSantis has even proposed eliminating the property tax, like I mentioned to you on the show a while ago, although we can't count on eliminating the property tax anytime soon, if it ever happens. But wow, what a real estate boom that property tax elimination would create. So for the long term, which is what real estate investing is, I still like Florida. One thing that I don't like is trying to catch a falling knife, and that is analogous to say, investing in an area that is going down and has no future. Florida's got a future. It's got some challenges, just like anywhere in the US, but the reason it has a future is because more population growth is almost a guarantee. You don't get many guarantees in investing. Just look at the decennial census figures. Okay, this is the population of Florida every 10 years, starting in the year 1900 that's when they had 528,000 people, yeah, only about a half million people in the entire state, and I'll do some rounding here every 10 years after that. So in 1910 it was up to 750,000 people, then a million, 1,000,005 1,000,009 now we're up to 1950 where it grew to 2.8 million people, and then 5,000,006 point 8,000,009.7, 1316, 18.8 and then 21 and a half million in 2020, and it's 23 and a half million today. Now I only went as far back as 1900 there, but their census data goes back to at least 1830 and the growth has always been torrid, just uninterrupted. Every 10 years. There has been substantial to massive growth for at least 200 years, and Florida has still. Grown more than 2% per year each of the past couple years. In fact, it is still first place of all 50 states for population growth. So areas that are over supplied with housing in Florida are going to be absorbed. So Florida real estate is definitely not doomed. And in fact, adding more Florida real estate at this time, you know, that could very well be the type of thing where 10 years from now, or even five years from now, when their population is substantially bigger and there's less housing available. I mean, it could potentially look like a wise buy that you're able to get property at this time with less competition and maybe even a small discount here in the mid 2020s, and today, you can find three Florida markets listed at GRE marketplace. What else is happening at GRE marketplace? We've added two new markets, and they are also in the South. They are Jackson, Mississippi and Montgomery, Alabama. Yes, these areas are investor advantaged, and they have prices lower than most Florida markets. Though, I don't know that you'll see the net migration inflows into Jackson and Montgomery that you will in a lot of Florida markets. Jackson has a metro population of 600,000 and Montgomery 400,000 they both have really low property taxes. And there's something else that these two new GRE marketplace cities have in common. Any guess both Jackson and Montgomery are state capitals, yes, so they do have a base of government jobs. So check out gremarketplace.com read more about those cities. And of course, we even connect you with free investment coaching there to help you get matched up with some good property. Thanks for listening. Until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.   Speaker 2  37:10    Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC exclusively.   Keith Weinhold  37:34   You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info, oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access and it's got paywalls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers, it's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters. And I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read, and when you start the letter. You also get my one hour fast real estate video. Course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream letter. It wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now. Just text GRE to 66866, while it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text, GRE to 66866.   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, getricheducation.com.   

Get Rich Education
550: Real Estate Pays 5 Ways: Your Audio Masterclass to Financial Freedom

Get Rich Education

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 21, 2025 50:13


Unlock the Wealth-Building Secrets of Real Estate Investing! Learn how strategic real estate investing can dramatically transform your financial future. Discover the Revolutionary "5 Ways You Get Paid" Strategy, updated for today's times: Appreciation: Turn a 5% property value increase into a potential 20% return Cash Flow: Generate steady monthly income from tenants Return on Amortization (ROA): Let tenants build your equity for you Tax Benefits: Enjoy generous government incentives for providing housing Inflation-Profiting: Transform economic challenges into your personal wealth generator  Key Highlights: Potential 38% first-year return on investment No special certification or license required Ethical wealth-building using other people's money Proven strategy for creating generational wealth Simple, accessible investment approach for ordinary people Your wealth-building journey starts today! Share the wealth by sharing this episode with a friend. Free Resources: Connect with a free GRE investment coach at GREinvestmentcoach.com Download the infographic gift summarizing the five ways real estate pays here. Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/550 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching:GREmarketplace.com/Coach Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai    Keith Weinhold  0:01   Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, real estate pays five ways updated for today's times, even with conservative assumptions, watch your total return from real estate climb to great heights today. You'll understand what billionaire real estate investors don't understand a new free audio course today on get rich education.    Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show, guess who keep top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com   Speaker 1  1:12   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  1:28   Welcome to GRE from Belgrade, Serbia to Bellingham, Washington and across 180 nations worldwide. I'm Keith weinholder. You are back inside get rich education. Today you're going to understand real estate investing really well, probably better than anyone that you know, in less than an hour. Now, before I begin investing in real estate, I seriously wondered how in the world it could possibly be a lucrative investment vehicle. I mean, like, how would that even work? Because you've got this physical structure where elements wear down the outside, tenants wear down the inside, and the whole thing only appreciates it about 5% a year. Yawn. That is really boring. Well, later I would start to put the pieces together. And actually didn't really understand leverage in cash flow until after I had bought my first rental property, I became the person, however, to coin the real estate pays five ways concept, and I discussed that years ago on the show here, and now I have updated it for today's times. So the principles remain the same, but the numbers are different. That's because today, cash flows are lower and interest rates are higher than they were five and 10 years ago. So let's see what total rate of return we come up with today, and just how we get there. And on the way, you'll see even more evidence of why compound interest does not build wealth, and getting your money to work for you doesn't build wealth either. And to say that is total heresy. In a lot of financial circles, you'll clearly see how real estate has really made more ordinary people wealthy than anything else. This is course level instruction, and you're getting it all free right here today as part of one of our weekly episodes. This will help you retire earlier than you ever imagined, or just find the time for yourself to become the best version of yourself. Now, for long time, listeners, I've got to tell you first, much of today is going to sound like a review, but I've got a really surprising twist at the end here, in the fifth of five ways that you're paid, I also have a free gift to give to you and to all listeners today. And this is not in any way, replay of old material. It's not AI generated. It never is. It is me talking to you updated for today's times. And this is we're about to get started. This is just with simple buy in hold real estate. So you don't even have to be a house flipper or a wholesaler or a landlord, and you can just use normal 30 year mortgage loans. And as we see, it doesn't even take a ton of money. These are fundamental wealth building attributes that lay people don't understand and will change your life. I mean, more than 95% of real estate investors don't even understand what I'm about to share. We're going to calculate your rate of return from each of the five ways we'll calculate, then your cumulative return on investment until it builds up and culminates. In your total return at the end today, and I'll tell you anything less than a 20 to 25% total return in this buy and hold real estate is actually disappointing, and you don't even need to take on inordinate risk. But you'll see the exact percentage that we get up to today, and how it gets even higher than 20 to 25% I mean, this is how real estate creates Young Money and old money and Fast Money and slow money, and gives you access to other people's money. Ethically, all of that, we have some new listeners dropping by today. So if you're new here, I'm Keith Weinhold, get rich education founder, Forbes real estate council member, best selling author, and long time real estate investor, also an incomprehensibly slack jawed and snaggletooth to podcaster. But see here in the audio only, you only have to hear the slack jaw, but video platforms where you'll find me and this course on YouTube and rumble, oh, through a disaster, because you both hear my slack jaw and have to see my snaggletooth. It's dreadful.    Getting back to the course here, you know, school did little to teach you and I about the most important things in life, like nutrition or relationships or money. And you know what drives most divorces? Can you guess what it is? I mean, it's not arguments over trigonometri or English grammar or the periodic table of the elements. No, it's money problems. Well, the financial education in this course, it's gonna help you solve that as much as anything you need to take on the mindset of how you must unlearn what you've learned before you can believe something else.    We're gonna use this same simple example of a $200,000 income property throughout the course a rental, single family home. Yes, you can still find many of these, and it's with a rent paying tenant. Now, if you want to think bigger than a 200k property, no problem. Say you want a $20 million apartment building, you can just multiply everything by 100 because we're talking about ratios today. Say that when you buy this property, your down payment and closing costs have you putting in 25% All right? So you've now got 50k invested on this 200k property.    Well, in the first of five ways you're paid appreciation is what it's called. Well, historically, real estate appreciates at about 5% per year. All right, see your 200k Income Property appreciates to 210k There's your 5% yawn, boring. That might only be about the real rate of inflation. That's what most people think. But look at what you just did there already. You just did something amazing. You already benefited from a force greater than compound interest. You just created compound leverage, and most people don't even know it, because your return is far greater than the 5% total appreciation your return on investment is your gain, which is 10k divided by the amount that you have invested, which is 50k because that's all that you put into this. You just got a 20% return from only the first of five ways you're paid appreciation. And now, if you're scratching your head wondering how that just happened, how did 5% return go to 20% no worries, I will slow it down. And this course never gets more complicated than this, you achieved a 5% return on both your 50k invested and the 150k that you borrowed from the bank. See the return on the bank's money doesn't go to the bank, it goes to you all while the tenant pays the interest on the mortgage loan. We'll get to that part later for you, this could be your first moment of epiphany in this course, a light bulb moment. Yes, today you'll get more light bulb moments than Thomas Edison. That is the magic of leverage. It's so simple ethically use other people's money, but most people are only getting compound interest, a return on their money, only not theirs and others like they could have great so where does appreciation come from? What is its source? Supply versus demand for real estate an area's wage growth, population growth, a region's infrastructure improvements contribute to this. The shrinking availability of developable. Land and more. Now what if real estate prices go down? You're covered. That will be addressed shortly. Here we are just scratching the surface. You're starting to figure out why wealthy people's money either starts out in real estate or ends up in real estate. And the thing is, is you can do this the same simple way that I did when I began as a real estate investor. You don't need any degree or certification or real estate license in order to do this. Real Estate pays five ways.    Now that you know about the first appreciation, leveraged appreciation in real estate's case will carry forward your 20% gain and add it onto the second of five ways you're paid, cash flow. For many, this is the most important one. One way for you to think about this second way cash flow is that it's the recurring income from your tenant that shows up, whether you had any involvement with the property that month or not. That's why this is passive income most months. This one is the most liquid of the five ways, because it pays you cash every month, and therefore you can immediately either reinvest it or just spend it and increase your standard of living. This is effectively your salary increase plan. Yes, it's the opposite of a 401 k, which is a salary reduction plan, which actually was an early name of 401 K plans, since this income is sourced by your tenant rent payment, minus the property expenses. Your Cash Flow is sourced by jobs, because that's how your tenant gets their rent payment that they pay you, and this is why I like larger metro areas, your market selection is more important than your property. That's a huge lesson right there, because it's about the durability of this cash flow. All right, we're about to run the numbers and see what your rate of return from passive cash flow is. Let's do it. We'll build on our example of your ownership of a 200k income property with your 50k down payment. All right, on the 200k rental single family home, say that your rent is $1,500 a month. That is therefore $18,000 of annual rent income. But then you need to deduct out your expenses, and you do have a lot of them. They are your mortgage and your operating expenses, like I've shared with you before. The easy way to remember those operating expenses is with the acronym VIMTUM, vacancy, insurance, maintenance, taxes, utilities and management, and paying that manager is what keeps this mostly passive for you. So to be clear, your rent income minus your mortgage in VIMTUM operating expenses equals your cash flow. You can kind of think of that as your rent overflow. Okay, here we go. Say you figure that from your 18k of annual rent income that you need to pay out 15k worth of annual expenses, that leaves you with $3,000 of cash flow, or so you thought, but you have a freak plumbing problem that creates a bill of 1000 bucks. However, you have property insurance, but say your insurance deductible is $1,000 so you've just got to come and pay out of pocket for your managers, plumber to fix it, and now the $3,000 of annual cash flow you thought you'd have only leaves you with $2,000 somewhat of a thin cash flow. Then that's a higher maintenance expense than you had previously forecast in your pretty looking pro forma projection. That often goes wrong, because something stupid often happens out of the blue in real estate investing, all right, well, with your $2,000 of cash flow, which is passive income, that's divided by your same 50k invested that gives you a return of 4% from the second of five ways you're paid. That number is what's known is the cash on cash return. You thought it would be 6% but we're being conservative. The Freak plumbing problem made it just 4% add this to the 20% from leverage depreciation in the first video, and you now have an accumulated 24% total rate of return from this income property already, and we still got three ways to go. We're just gonna keep piling onto this return in the next three ways you're paid. How high is this going to go? And you know what's interesting with this? Luke. Conservative math adding up your lofty return. It's actually conservative as we proceed, you'll note that I'm using simplification and rounding you're going to see me round down more than round up. To keep this conservative and real estate math is simple. It's just add, subtract, multiply or divide. There's nothing complex, no trigonometri or calculus or exponents. This is easy. You just have to know what numbers to use, and that's what you're learning and reinforcing today.    Now here's a weird scenario. Imagine if you had a stranger out there funding a bank account for you, making monthly contributions into this illiquid savings account. I mean, does that sound too good to be true? Nope. It exists. The third of five ways that real estate pays is exactly why this is real, as this free audio course, real estate pays five ways continues for you. Real estate has so many ROIs returns on investment that one of the five is called an Roa. That's the third way you're paid. And none of this material is new or esoteric or avant garde. It's always been out there. There's just been no one else that's put it together before this, most people were never taught how to build real estate wealth in the real world. And what's insane about this third of five ways you're paid is that now you're probably already getting paid more ways than you ever have. I mean, instead, what is most people's investing experience, it's in stocks, bonds, mutual funds, ETFs, gold or Bitcoin. I mean, that's where you're typically only paid one way, capital appreciation, if you even get that, and maybe a second way is if you have a dividend paying stock. But I mean, that's all you've got. One way, maybe two. If you want to build wealth, you've got to give your money multiple jobs. That's exactly what we're doing here. ROA stands for your return on amortization this third way you're paid is the monthly principal pay down portion of your mortgage. That's your return. So we're going to add your ROA to the 24% total return that we've accumulated so far. And now you might think you already have experience with an ROA if you have a mortgage on your own home, your primary residence, but no, not actually, because in your own home each month, a portion of your mortgage payment goes toward principal pay down and the rest of pay interest, but all you did in your primary residence is you went and you had to work to earn money all month. All you did at the end of that month was move that money from your cash pocket over to your equity pocket when that mortgage payment gets made. So that's merely a transfer of funds, but with income property, your tenant earned that cash that month to pay your mortgage principal payment, and we'll tally that up in a moment. On top of the principal, they pay your entire interest payment, plus your tenant pays you a little on top of that each month called cash flow, which was the second way you're paid. So yes, your tenant is going to work for you. If your tenants rent payment is a third of their income, they're working close to 10 days a month just for you, just to pay your rent. I mean, that is amazing. If you add properties with rent paying tenants like this. It's sort of like you have all these employees out there working for you, and yet you don't have to manage them at work. It is amazing this third of five ways focuses on that return on amortization, and the etymology of the word amortize that comes from the old French meaning death. And that makes sense, your tenant is slowly killing off your mortgage balance for you over time. So let's do this. Let's add up your ROA, all right, we're using this same example where you got a 150k loan on your 200k rental, single family home. Let's say that you got a 7% interest rate on a 30 year fixed rate mortgage, so just the plain everyday loan. Just look up any amortization calculator, enter those numbers in there, and you'll see that in year one, your tenant pays down over $1,500 of your income properties mortgage balance for you, let's round it down to just 1500 bucks, because it could have been some vacancy in there as well. Your ROA is simply this year, one principal pay down divided by your amount invested again, that is 1500 bucks divided by your 50k Of down payment and closing costs that you have in the property your skin in the game. And this is another 3% return for you. That's your Roa. I mean, you are beginning to really build wealth now. This is somewhat of a hidden wealth generator that a lot of investors never consider. Many of them are aware of this, though, it's like your tenant is funding an ill, liquid savings account that has your name on it. We'll add this 3% ROA to the tally of a 24% cumulative return that we figured from the first two ways. Yes, you are now up to a 27% total rate of return from appreciation, cash flow, your ROA, and we still have two of the five ways to discuss. We're just gonna keep piling onto your return. What is the source of your Roa? This 3% it is jobs again, your tenants income. If interest rates fall and you refinance, you'll get an even higher annual chunk of tenant made principal pay down, even with the initial loan kept in place this 7% mortgage note, how in future years, your amount of 10 it made principal pay down. Only keeps increasing over time. But we're only talking about year one in this whole example. We're going to carry forward your 27% total rate of return so far into the next one as this real estate pays five ways. Audio course will continue here in Episode 550 of the get rich education podcast, yeah, even the episode number has some fives in it as we roll on, breaking down just how the five ways build wealth more after the break, I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, this is get rich education.   You know what's crazy? Your bank is getting rich off of you. The average savings account pays less than 1% it's like laughable. Meanwhile, if your money isn't making at least 4% you're losing to inflation. That's why I started putting my own money into the FFI liquidity fund. It's super simple. Your cash can pull in up to 8% returns, and it compounds. It's not some high risk gamble like digital or AI stock trading. It's pretty low risk because they've got a 10 plus year track record of paying investors on time, in full every time. I mean, I wouldn't be talking about it if I wasn't invested myself. You can invest as little as 25k and you keep earning until you decide you want your money back. No weird lockups or anything like that. So if you're like me and tired of your liquid funds just sitting there doing nothing, check it out. Text family to 66866, to learn about freedom family investments, liquidity fund again. Text family to 66866. Hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine, at Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Chaley Ridge personally. Start Now while it's on your mind at Ridge lendinggroup.com That's ridgelendinggroup.com.   Speaker 2  23:45   This is Ridge lending group's president, Caeli Ridge listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and remember, don't quit your Daydream.   Keith Weinhold  24:10   Welcome back to get rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, as we continue with the real estate pays five ways audio course, before the break, we're rolling forward a 27% total ROI from the first three ways that you're simultaneously paid. Again, nothing complicated, just with a piece of buy and hold real estate that you purchase carefully. You don't have to do any renovations. You don't have to be a landlord. This is how you're going to build forever wealth, legacy wealth, if you don't come from money now, money can come from you. This can shake up your entire family tree. After today, you'll have a concrete plan. I don't come from wealth. I build it myself, and I'm laying out the architecture of how I did. Just that in a simple way for you, the fourth of five ways you're paid is that real estate investors are rewarded with a generous basket of tax benefits from the government because you are doing what the government wants. You're providing others with housing. Informed people know that if you spend money on certain things like solar panels for your home or education expenses, you get a tax break for spending that money. Well, with real estate, you don't even need to spend any money to get a tax break every single year. Incredibly, you get the tax deduction anyway. It's easy. Let's do it here. And you know, it's time to make something crystallized for you. And this can rock your world and even induce some disbelief. Some people say, don't get your money. Get your money to work for you. We've all heard that. Here is the heterodox. Here is the paradigm shift. If you want to build wealth, don't get your money to work for you. Outside of this show, I bet you have never heard that iconoclastic stance your best and highest use as an investor is not to get your money to work for you. It's making other people's money work for you. OPM, now, you probably heard that before as well, but I've got a twist on that. But see if you want to build wealth, do you think you'd have to both think and act differently than the masses? I mean, yes, you certainly do, but this is your differentiator, even multi decade billionaire real estate investors don't realize what I'm about to share with you forever. Wealth is built. Early Retirement, wealth is built. Your standard of living is indelibly elevated beyond what you ever thought possible because you are ethically using other people's money three ways at the same time, the bank's money for leverage in the loan, which we covered in the first way, you're paid the tenants money for cash flow and loan pay down, which we covered in videos two and three. And now here you are using the government's money for generous tax benefits at scale, which we're covering in this fourth of five ways you're using other people's money, three ways at the same time within this, this is why you're building wealth. And of course, this does not mean you're exploiting people by using their money, just the opposite. You're doing good in the world. Provide people with housing that's clean, safe, affordable and functional. Do that, and you'll be profitable in the long term and never get called a slum lord. Rental property income is generally taxed at ordinary income tax rates, but you don't have to pay tax on all of your rental income. The tax deductions are generous from rental property, you can deduct out your mortgage interest and your operating expenses, which I will not cover in our example. You also get a depreciation deduction. We'll look at that one closely, and when you sell, you can endlessly defer your capital gains tax so you never have to pay it all of your life, all right. Well, what does this really mean? If you buy a rental property for 200k and after a bunch of years you sell it for 500k your capital gain was 300k in most investments, you need to pay capital gains tax of at least 15% on this you would take a $45,000 tax hit. But with real estate, when you sell if you generally replace it with a property of equal or greater value, your capital gains tax is zero, absolutely zero. Now, rental property taxes are somewhat complicated, and I am not a CPA, I'm giving general guidance. I'm not going to get into things like your adjusted basis and other details. In fact, I'm not even going to consider this benefit of deferred capital gains tax in tallying up your rate of return. So instead, let's only look at your return from the tax depreciation portion of your full basket of tax benefits. It's going to keep things simple, and it'll also keep our example more conservative. Yes, even though your 200k rental property in our example tends to appreciate in value, the government says you can get a tax break because they say that the property wears out over 27 and a half years. That's just what the IRS guideline is. This only applies to rental property. There's no depreciation deduction on a primary residence. Let's do it on your 200k property, you can only depreciate the structures value called the improvement, not the land portion. We'll say that your structure or house's value is 150k and the land is 50k even the IRS knows that land doesn't wear out, only the structure. Divide your 150k structure value by 27.5 Yep. Pretty weird, arbitrary number, but that's how long the IRS says it takes to wear out. That gives you $5,454 that's how much you can depreciate or shelter from taxes if you're in the 24% tax bracket, that's $1,309 in tax savings for you. Divide that by how much you have invested in this 200k property. Again, that was 50k when you made the down payment and closing costs. This is a 2.6% return. Let's keep being conservative and round that down to 2% there it is our number from the fourth of five ways you're paid. We are layering on another 2% return. Now, can you really call a tax break part of your return? Is that fair? Should that be considered? Yes, it is, in this case of tax depreciation, because you did not even have to incur an expense in order to get that deduction, that's why some people call it the magic of depreciation. Usually, to get a tax break, like I was saying earlier, you have to make an out of pocket expense, like pay for fees to attend a conference or buy solar panels or pay automobile expenses. But you don't have to do that here, so the 2% rate of return for your tax benefit is even more conservative when you realize that we also are not digging into how this piece of real estate can also make you eligible for other tax benefits like a qualified business income deduction, a cost segregation and bonus depreciation. And for simplicity, we're not going to go run examples on different marginal tax brackets, and there are income thresholds and other thresholds, whether you're married or single. And of course, we are excluding that erstwhile capital gains tax that you can legally duck out of to collect all the tax benefits without me having to get deeply involved. At the end of each year, my property manager just sends my property's financials directly to my bookkeeper. And yes, I know we've got some CPAs listening to this right now thinking that 2% that is much too low of a return from your basket of tax benefits, but that is all we're going to use. We're going to add this to the ROIs that we accumulated from leverage appreciation at 20% in the first way, cash flow at 4% in the second way, and an ROA of 3% in the third way, plus this 2% from tax benefits here in the fourth way, here we are up to a 29% first year total ROI from your 200k single family income property that you so wisely purchased. Now you know how to use other people's money three ways at the same time again, the banks, the tenants, and with these tax breaks the governments.    Let's move on to the fifth of five ways. Add up your total rate of return, and then I'll give you some more important takeaways to give this context, and I'm going to give you your free gift. Your fifth way is your second biggest profit center, and most real estate investors don't even know that it exists, you're going to profit from something that actually makes most people poorer. So we're going to take our 29% add the fifth way to it, and it's going to culminate in your total number. The fifth way is called inflation profiting. Remember, it's not inflation hedging. Real Estate bought the right way is not an inflation hedge. Hedging is defensive, meaning that you break even from inflation, but no instead, you're actually profiting from inflation. That's different. This is offensive. Now a conventional financial advisor. You know, they're often out there selling investment products that tout something like a 10% rate of return. You know, synonymous with a return from the s, p5, 100. Ask your financial advisor about the five drags on that return. It's 10% minus inflation, emotion, taxes, fees and volatility, and your adjusted return is often less than zero. Just look at their track record. Stocks and mutual funds don't make anyone wealthy. They might just preserve wealth if you already have it strategically bought. Real estate has hegemony over all the other. Set classes precisely because it pays five ways. Either you can be a conformer or you can build wealth. If you want to escape financial mediocrity, you can't run with the herd. You need to get into a lot of good debt. It sounds scary until you realize that debt is tied to a carefully selected income property, meaning your entire debt payments are therefore reliably outsourced to tenants. DEBT, TAXES and inflation are three forces that make most people poorer. It makes most people poorer because they either don't have the resources, or they don't have the know how to arrange their financial life. They don't have any strategy. Well, today, you're learning how to make these three forces, DEBT, TAXES, inflation, those three wealthier with the Debase purchasing power of the dollar. You know most people, they see the price of a new car that goes from 50k to 60k or that their favorite Subway sandwich goes from nine bucks to 10 bucks, and then they just kind of hope that their salary keeps up. You know, that's sort of the average experience with inflation. Now, you and I, we would not save by stashing a million bucks under the mattress, because 3% inflation would de base its purchasing power by 30k every single year. That's why we do the opposite of saving. We borrow. For every million you borrow, we'll every year say that with inflation, your wage, salary, rent, income, all go higher by 3% now it gets easier to pay back your million dollar loan all while the tenant pays the interest, and you're profiting 30k each year. So after one year, you only owe the bank back 970k and inflation adjusted dollars and 940k after year two, and 910k after year three, inflation debases savings and debt at the same rate, so borrow instead of Save and see, this is the reason why the top selling financial author of all time, Robert Kiyosaki, a frequent guest on our show here, he says, savers are losers, debtors are winners. In an inflationary world, don't be a saver. Be a savvy debtor, because in the future, you can count on more inflation. See, the government needs inflation to occur. The easiest way for the US to repay its 10s of trillions of dollars in debt is to just keep printing lots of dollars, and that process debases every dollar that you're currently holding on to. Who cares about your debt when both tenants and inflation are just relentlessly paying it down for you? That is if you're doing real estate right, which means buying an income producing property with a loan. That's the whole formula here. That's all we're doing, buying a rental property with a loan. But when you understand how inflation both pumps up your real estate value and simultaneously debases your debt, it turns your world upside down, you almost become this inflation cheerleader, because inflation is now good for you, as this audio course is now covering the fifth of five ways you're paid. Please understand some risk still exists. You could buy in the wrong market, hire the wrong property manager, or just buy the wrong property no matter what, you're going to have some inevitable problems along the way, like that plumbing problem I mentioned earlier in the second of five ways you're paid over leverage is a risk over leverage means that you take on so much debt that you can't make the monthly payments so you can still lose money. But from listening today, you vastly increase your chances of being profitable, and that's why we say that carefully bought real estate has the best risk adjusted return. Here we go, following through with our example across all five ways on your 200k income property that you made a 50k down payment on, that is therefore a $150,000 loan that you took out at a 3% inflation rate each year, your debt is then being debased by $4,500 this is a quiet, hidden wealth generator that most investors don't even know about. $4,500 of inflation profiting divided by your same 50k down payment means that you have another 9% rate of return. Wow, a 9% rate of return that you're getting that most investors don't even know about. I mean, in the conventional financial world, I mean, they're proud to offer you a nine. Percent mutual fund return over time, and they advertise that as something good here by putting a down payment on a rental property. This 9% is another sweetener that no one even notices, and that gets added on to everything else. It's just incredible. Yes, 9% now, in the past, I used to think this return was just the inflation rate that we're using here, 3% but see, this is leveraged as well a 9% return from inflation profiting. And like I mentioned, uh, towards the beginning of the show, this is the twist for a long time get rich education. Podcast listener, see 3% that would merely be a hedge. So add this 9% to the 29% running total in the first four ways, and there you have it, an astounding 38% total rate of return from the five ways that real estate pays 38% I mean, you are really understanding why wealthy people's money either starts out or ends up in real estate, and that you don't have to be wealthy to start everything we discussed there was in year one. I mean, if someone asks you why you're investing in real estate, you can just hold up five fingers and share this episode with them. I mean, this says it all, and we could have surely come up with a higher number than 38% if you had used a 20% down payment instead of 25 then you'd have more leverage, and your total ROI would be in the mid 40s percent, and we really handled the tax portion conservatively. Here another reason your return could be higher, this was with a 7% mortgage rate and a pretty modest 4% cash on cash return as well. Yes, your total ROI is 38% now after year one returns fall over time due to the accumulation of equity in your property, so the denominator for the calculation is larger. You got 38% in year one, perhaps year two is 31% and year three is 24% but you can really see how you're getting ahead of the world in three years like that in other episodes of the show. Here, I do talk about how to limit the return attrition through refinancing and some other techniques, but these are amazing rates of return, compounding evidence that compound leverage blows away compound interest, and again, it's DEBT, TAXES and inflation that are making you wealthy. How you should know by now the formula is really simple. Just buy an income producing property with an everyday 30 year loan, even if real estate values fall, you can get paid for other ways and still have a positive return. Real estate values have always bounced back even after 2008 and see if the property is temporarily suppressed in value, you're going to have little concern with wanting to sell it when tenants are still paying you a monthly income during that time. Very few veteran real estate investors understand the five ways. Most real estate educators don't understand this either, but now you do, and to get this 38% total ROI again at times I simplified throughout I mean, your real world return is likely going to be different. It's going to be higher or lower than 38% probably. But now you know about a vehicle for actually creating durable wealth, and I would like to think that what you learned today is the most complete yet still concise way of understanding how a real estate investor gets paid. You gotta know this. This is the motivation for wanting to do this in the first place.    And hey, if you like what I've shared so far, I'd love to ask you for something, and then I have more important things to tell you and give you your free gift. As I made this course free. Hey, if you would please just share the wealth. Share this episode with a friend. I'm sure you know somebody that would benefit from this. It's really a big aha moment when you finally know how it all goes together. If you subscribe to our newsletter, you were already sent the video version of this course here in just the past couple weeks that's going to help you see how all the numbers go together. And the video course was also released free on YouTube, so if you're listening to this within a few weeks or months of the episodes release, it's still easy to find on our get rich education YouTube channel and four. Finally, in order to make this actionable and actually profit from what you learned, you can just copy me and buy properties from where I buy them at GRE marketplace, that's where there are properties conducive to the five ways you're paid. It probably does take about a minimum, oh, of a 35k to 55k down payment in order to get started. Properties are either new build or renovated. Tenants are in place. There's a property management solution, if you like, and optionally, our free investment coaching service there learns your goals, then helps match you with the right areas and properties and hey, I'm happy to tell you and announce that you can now connect directly with our completely free investment coaching service at GREinvestment coach.com, yes, this is a new URL to make it easier for you to connect with a GRE investment coach. Yeah, I kind of thought that was a good one, huh? How do you connect with a free GRE investment coach? Well, at GREinvestment coach.com I've got a free gift for you. Everything that we discussed in this course today was distilled down into one colorful infographic that we designed and laid out here so you can view it, download it, or even print it out on one eight and a half by 11 inch sheet of paper. Yeah, my team and I went back and forth on this infographic for quite a few rounds to make it just right. I like how it looks, and I've never known anyone else to do this all the ways real estate pays concisely onto one sheet of paper. The link for that infographic gift is in the show notes for this episode at get rich education.com/ 550 since this is episode 550 get it at getrice education.com/ 550 Yeah, the infographic gift is a memento of this course and the time that we spent together today. Think of it as your diploma, and it's a diploma that doesn't come with 12 years of student loan payments either. Yes, it is just a piece of paper, but is it worth more than the piece of paper known as your bachelor's degree or your MBA? I don't know. You can be the judge. So congrats, graduate. Now you know how real estate makes ordinary people wealthy, but learning this today really doesn't benefit you if you don't find the right property in the right market with a property manager. If you so choose a property manager, you've got to take action. You usually want to start small, including with investor advantage, single family rentals for as little as 200k just like our example, some cost even less. We will help you do just that, and do it for free with our coaching book a time and get it on the calendar at GREinvestmentcoach.com that's GREinvestmentcoach.com    I'm get rich education's Keith Weinhold, thanks for being here, but you weren't here for me. You were here for you. I'll see you next week. Don't quit your daydream.   Speaker 3  48:25   nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC exclusively.   Keith Weinhold  48:49   You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info, oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access, and it's got paywalls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers, it's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours, my self, it's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point, because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read, and when you start the letter, you also get my one hour fast real estate video. Course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream. Letter, it wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now. Just text GRE to 66866, while it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text GRE to 66866.   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, get rich, education.com.  

Get Rich Education
549: Who You Are vs. Who You Could Be with Loral Langemeier

Get Rich Education

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 14, 2025 52:49


Keith introduces the three types of freedom: time freedom, money freedom, and location freedom, and how real estate investing can provide all three. He is joined by special guest, Loral Langemeier, a global wealth expert, who shares her journey from a $25,000 investment to becoming a millionaire through real estate and mentorship.  Debt is Not Negative: Loral emphasized that debt is simply the cost of money and can be a positive tool when used responsibly. Tax Strategies for Wealth Building: She introduced the "tax trifecta" - understanding how you make money, how to activate tax code deductions, and how to invest in alternatives like real estate to reduce taxes.  Active Engagement and Mentorship: Loral stressed the importance of actively engaging in your wealth-building journey, getting the right mentors, and continuously learning. She believes the difference between those who succeed and those who struggle is their level of active participation and willingness to learn from experts. Resources: Ask questions and make requests at AskLoral.com to receive free tickets, ebooks, and other resources. Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/549 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching:GREmarketplace.com/Coach Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai    Keith Weinhold  0:01   Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, it's the first time that we have a certain legacy finance personality on the show. We're talking about how you can cultivate your own personal wealth mindset, how to creatively add value to your real estate and how to put your kids to work for big tax deductions and more. Today on get rich education.    Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, who delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show, guess who? Top Selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com   Corey Coates  1:12   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  1:28   Welcome to GRE from the second state of Pennsylvania to the second to last State of Alaska and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith weinholding. You are back for another wealth building week. This is get rich education, and coincidentally, they are the two states where I've lived my life. Every single one of us has a gap in our lives. There is a gap between who you are and who you could be. And today, my guest and I will talk about this some more. Look, there are people who should already be financially free, but they're not. Their residual income could exceed their expenses by now, yet they aren't financially free. It's not because they're lazy, it's not because they're stupid, it's because they're stuck in one of these three traps. Number one, they're working harder instead of smarter. Number two, they're playing small instead of playing to win, which is like paying off low interest rate debt instead of keeping their own money, like I discussed last week, or thirdly, investing in all the wrong things, or not investing at all. And the worst part is that these people don't even realize that they're doing it. Most people aren't even cognizant. They don't have any awareness of the gap. You're not going to make progress on closing a gap that you don't know exists, you've got no chance of hitting a bull's eye when you're aiming at the wrong target. And I think it helps to develop a structure in your life where you have to tell yourself, I better do a good job here, or else. Yeah, it's the or else part that's a motivator. Now, some people won't extrapolate that mantra beyond the workplace. The number one thing that keeps employees showing up at work is fear. They tell themselves, I better show up at work on time, or else, I better do a good job on this project, or else I better give a great sales presentation. Or else. Now that's all well and fine, but to close the gap between who you are and who you could be, tell yourself something on a higher level, like I had better get some residual income outside of work, or else I'm going to stay stuck in a soulless job forever, and I'll never get that time back. So you've got to set up the right for else consequence for yourself. And then, yeah, of course, there are smaller ones like, I better avoid eating kettle chips, or else I'll gain weight. Let's be mindful that there are three types of freedom. You've got three types time freedom, money freedom and location freedom. Real Estate Investing gives you all three. You can make an unlimited income. There's the money freedom part. You can remotely manage your property managers from anywhere. There's your location. Freedom. And since you're not directly responding to your tenant, your property manager is, well, there's your time, freedom, you've got a buffer from emergencies, once you get this dialed in, and it does take a few years, oh, now you've got the time freedom, the money freedom and the location freedom. What do you want to avoid only making a big income? It was recently reported that Wall Street bonuses were way up this past year. Okay, yeah, but how happy are those finance worker Manhattanites who wear an iron pressed button down shirt and a Patagonia vest for 14 hours a day. That's not time freedom for sure, and it isn't location freedom either, unless it's 100% work from anywhere. You know, in my life, I recently got a great reminder of this. It really hit me. I have this close friend. He was the valedictorian of our high school class. I think I brought him up before. He's still a tight friend. I mean, sometimes we go on vacations together. Well, we have a high school class reunion back in Pennsylvania this summer, and among him and our other like, closest group of friends, my tightest guys, I'm always encouraging everyone to, hey, spend at least a week together, because we can't all get together like this that often, and because I have the time freedom to kind of suggest that and even push for that. Well, my valedictorian friend, he is a surgeon in St Louis, and among this tightest knit group of friends, he's the only one that cannot get the week off so that we can all hang out together more after the reunion. Instead, he can only get three or four days. He's got to get back to work as a surgeon in St Louis. Now, I'm sure he's compensated really well, and he doesn't live a bad life, but as a surgeon, you know, it's just become blatantly obvious that he doesn't have either the time freedom or the location freedom. Yet I do as a remote real estate investor, even though it's not something that I studied in college, but my valedictorian surgeon friend, you know, he had a long educational path, you know, undergrad and med school and residency and a ton of training and all these years tied up in his medical education. Therefore, you know, sometimes when people do that, they feel obligated, like that's what they should do, that's what they have to do, because he's already put so much into it. But he only has one of the three types of freedom. And no matter what you went to school for, if you find out about something better, like a great business idea or remote real estate investing, you've got to consider pivoting into that and go into that if it makes sense for you, the world changes. It keeps getting faster, and you've got to change with it. So obtaining financial freedom through real estate helps you deal with an external locus of control issue where life is constantly happening to you, rather than something you can influence. When you're an employee, life happens to you more often than when you're the one pushing the buttons, when you control the three freedoms now, you are narrowing that gap between who you are and who you could be.    I didn't mention it previously. Two weeks ago, I brought you the show from Las Vegas, Nevada, last week, from just outside Colorado Springs. And today I'm here in Anchorage, Alaska, where I'll be for a few weeks before heading to London, England, and then from there, on to Scotland. I plan to visit the former home of the father of economics when I'm in Edinburgh, Scotland, of course, that is Adam Smith, the author of The Wealth of Nations. I might tell you more about that at that time.    Before we bring in our guest this week, a quarter recently ended.  Here is our asset class rundown. The NAR reported that the median sale price of an existing home rose 3.8% year over year in February, marking the 20th straight month that sale prices increased year over year. Mortgage rates fell from 6.9% to 6.6 per Freddie Mac this is all year to date. Q1, the S, p5, 100 was down four and a half percent. The NASDAQ down 10 and a half percent. That's officially correction territory, as those tariff years dominated. The quarter interest rates of all kinds are a little lower yield on the 10 year, Tino falling from 4.6 to 4.2 despite inflation concerns, inflation hovering just under 3% for most of the quarter, Bitcoin down 12% oil is still super cheap, beginning the quarter where it ended near 70 bucks. Gold has been the star performer this year. Are up 17% just in the quarter, and for the first time in history, has searched the over $3,000 an ounce, its best quarter since 1986 in fact, this century, gold has now outperformed the S, p5 100 by two and a half times. Just incredible. There's our asset class rundown. Let's speak with this week's guest.   This week's guest has been a long time, prominent, well known name, perhaps even a household name. She is a global wealth expert, six time New York Times, best selling author, and today, she runs integrated wealth systems and other alternative asset platforms since 1996 she's been involved in multiple areas of finance, mentoring, real estate investment, business development and gas and oil. And much like me, she teaches people her strategies on how to make money, invest money and keep money, but together, you and I can look forward to getting her spin today, and you've seen her seemingly everywhere over time, in the USA Today, The Wall Street Journal, the view Dr Phil in every major legacy network channel, many times she is on a mission to change The conversation about money. She was known as the millionaire maker from back when a million was actually a lot of money. Welcome to GRE Loral Langemeier.   Loral Langemeier  11:31   hey, thank you. It's great to be here. Look forward to talking with your audience,   Keith Weinhold  11:35    Laurel, though we're a real estate investing show and audience here, I think that you and I would agree that wealth building starts in the mind that most valuable six inches of real estate between our ears. What's your take on cultivating a wealthy mindset?   Loral Langemeier  11:50   You got to hang out with millionaires. I said the fastest way to become a millionaire is hang out with them. Is for me. I knew that's what happened. 1996 Bob Proctor introduced me to Robert Kiyosaki, Sharon Lechter, I flew down, sat at her kitchen table. I walked out that day. I flew in as an exercise physiologist for Chevron, building fitness centers in their blue collar like offshore oil rigs, refineries like the sexiest places in the world, Kazakhstan and goal Africa. I went in as an exercise physiologist. I went out the next day as a master distributor with a cash flow game. And I jumped, I quit my job and said, I'm going to go follow this Japanese kind of game around. And I was teased and teased and teased. Keith because, I mean, Rich Dad, Poor Dad didn't really hit until 1998 so sort of this risky proposition. But like with anything you say yes, you figure it out. And I knew people asked me over the time. They said, What would have happened if Rich Dad, Poor Dad didn't hit, if it didn't become as big? I said, we just opened up another door that's such a message for people, their need to see the path of how to do everything before they move is honestly one of their biggest saboteurs. So for mindset, I think mindset also goes with knowledge, because I just know, having taught this, you know, just this whole millionaire hold like a millionaire maker book. And for all your listeners, I can give them a ebook copy of the millionaire maker. So love to give that out to everybody for free. However. You want to do that in the show notes, but becoming a millionaire is the same thing as take like you said, you got to learn to make money. As an entrepreneur, even if you have a job, you've got to learn to make money. You've got to learn to keep it through better tax planning, and you have to invest in alternatives, which is why real estate was my first millionaire status. And I've been a millionaire now in nine industries. So that's kind of exciting new hit nine industries this last year. So done in a lot of different categories. Real Estate was my first in 1999 and during that period, if it wasn't hanging out with Robert Sharon, Keith Cunningham, like Bob Proctor. I mean the guys. I mean when you're living around millionaires, the fastest way to not only get your mindset, but then your behavior and your knowledge levels just skyrockets because you're around I mean people who live it, and they're living it every day. I think those who sit on the bleacher seats, I call it Keith, where they're just watching, reading, but never getting in the game. They're the ones who like they're sitting in the oyster seats, right? They're just watching. They're not actually get on the playing field.   Keith Weinhold  14:09   Sure, it harkens back to the classic Jim Rohn quote, you are the average of the five people that you spend the most time with. Laurel when it comes to mindset, one thing I think about is that every single day, 8.2 billion humans wake up, and every single one of us has this gap between who we are and who we could be, yet most of us make zero progress on this ever present gap. So when it comes to wealth mindset and finances, what can we do?    Loral Langemeier  14:38   You gotta get a mentor and a coach. And I got a mentor and a coach when I was 17, what shifted me and really changed the whole trajectory of my life. I grew up at farm in farm girl in Nebraska, and at 17, I was going off to university, also going to play basketball. And so I went to one of those pre sports seminars, and Dennis Whateley was a speaker. And. And I ran to the front of the stage, and I got the book, Think and Grow Rich, and that I can tell you, a farm girl 17, going like, there's a whole other way to live. So instead of going to school to get a law degree, which is what I went into, which I still think I'd be a heck of a little debater and negotiator, but I do that enough in business now, I got a finance degree, and I just studied. And my first mentor at 17, I walked into a bank, and I remember asking the bank president, will you mentor me? Because rich people put their money here. I need to understand money, because I don't understand it. And I was never really raised in that conversation, which I would say, 99% of the planets that way. And I have taught and traveled this work since, you know, 1999 when I became a millionaire, Keith, I've put this work into six continents, all but Antarctica. So I know it works in principle. Everything we will talk about today works in every continent. The benefit is the United States has the most corporate structure, the best tax structure, the best tax strategist, stack strategies. So even my high net worth international clients end up, typically in Nevada, with a C Corp or some sort of asset company or trust, where then they can buy us real estate, US gas and oil and activate our tax code for them. So we do a lot of really high, high level international strategies. Just because I bent all over to do that, when very blessed to do that, it's interesting, because I think mentoring, you're not going to be taught this. And what drives me crazy when people say, and I'm sure you've heard this a million times on your podcast too, Keith, schools should teach this. No, they shouldn't. Parents, you need to teach it. You need to be more active in your household than your family. And instead of letting Tiktok raise your kids, you need to raise your kids. So I do a lot of work in this category, because my kids are now 18 and 25 raised them a single mom, but legacy work is critical, and that's why I have a game. I have a millionaire maker game. So from the cash flow game, I have a game, and I think the parents have got to put the conversation about money in the household, and they got to monitor like, what they say, you know, don't ever, ever say to a child. Don't ask for it, or, you know, or we can't afford it, because you can afford anything you want if you learn to make money. And I think Keith is part of this. I know we're in a real estate show, but you know, how many people want to be real estate millionaires and never make it? How many people want to do like you said, whatever, the life they're really meant to live? But again, I think they're in I don't think I know their environment, who they hang out with, who they spend time with, what they read there. Are they binging your podcasts and my YouTube channel, or are they binging Netflix and Hulu and watching John like how you feed your mind and what content, how many books you read? I don't care if they're ebooks audiobooks, but you've got to put new content in your brain all the time and be around the people making it happen.   Keith Weinhold  17:41   Oh, that's great. Sure. To change yourself. You got to change your five, change your mentors, change your influencers, and, yeah, be that parent that teaches your children about money, and you don't have to teach that money is a scarce resource. I really just think that's one part of a mindset. That's where most people's mind goes when they think about money. They think about it as a scarce resource for one thing, and it's pretty counterintuitive with the mindset. I mean, if you want to be in the top of 1% you're probably going to be misunderstood and even iconoclastic.   Loral Langemeier  18:13   Yep, I would agree. And you know, another thing with mindset that I think is interesting is, and again, I'm gonna go back to knowledge, about consuming the right knowledge. And on my YouTube channel, which is, you know, Laura Langmuir, The Millionaire maker, it's family friendly. It's for five years old and up. We actually have a YouTube journal, Keith, that we did, where it says, What day did you watch the video? What did you learn? What will you do? And in 365, days, because I'm there every day, here is your this. And that's what I tell parents. I said, get yourself and get your kids a journal and at least one lesson from every recorded, you know, video. So I would say, give me five to 10 minutes a day just for a new piece of content. And the biggest one that is searched on my channel. I want to relate this to real estate is people's mindset and understanding with debt. They have such a negative, negative relationship to debt. And I want to start with this. Debt is the cost of money period. It is not negative. I think it's the most positive thing you could do. And as a real estate investor, arbitraging debt, meaning, if you can get debt for two, 3% or 0% I have over 500 sources, I can get 0% financing for 21,24 months, that's free money that's not hard money, that's not 13% 14,15, that's free. And I would go into a million dollars of 0% debt I have, and I will at the end if I can invest it and make 10,12, 20, 30% so people need to learn, debt is your friend. If you use it in a responsible, organized and educated way, it is absolutely your enemy if you're using it to buy lifestyle crap. So like, debt is such a weird thing. Keith and I don't care how long I've had clients, if they grew up with a lot of debt and a negative impact around money, they can be a millionaire and still have this weird relationship to death. Oh my god, debt, and it's literally. They tremor. It's like it's just money, and there's plenty of it. It's just the cost of it. Or is it being paid to you, or are you paying it out and arbitraging that that range could build. I mean, that alone, if you just learned that strategy and applied it on top of your real estate strategy, would triple, if not 10x your portfolio,   Keith Weinhold  20:19   like we say around here at GRE financially free beats debt free. You understand the difference? So does our audience. A lot of people don't. In fact, trying to retire your debt and slow your progress toward being financially free. I love it. Yep, you know what's funny, Laurel, just like you're coming on this show today, sometimes I'm a guest on other shows, and the way I've started to have the host introduce me to say, Hey, if you want your show to get some attention, say that our guest today, me has millions of dollars in debt, and he has from a young age that attracts attention. They think it's a negative thing. They don't know that my debt is outsourced to tenants. They don't realize a net worth statement. That's only the debt side of the column. We haven't talked about the asset side of the column, so it's really just an example of being paradoxical and iconoclastic. There we move beyond the mindset Laurel. I know you have some really actionable things on how you can help people build wealth quickly. Tell us about that.    Loral Langemeier  21:16   So again, using debt is a massive piece of it. I'll just talk about some of the stories, like when I got into real estate in 1999 real estate in 1999 I lived in Marin, California, Sausalito, specifically right on the water. I shouldn't be on one side, right the San Francisco Bay. And got pregnant at 19 January, 8 was like, Oh, little sticks like, Oh, I'm gonna be my mom. And I knew I'd be a single mom. So I entered parenting as single mom, and I struck that, you know, another check for $25,000 seems to be the number for a real estate mentor that I've been kind of putting off. And I said, Oh, it's time. I said, so right now let's go. I have nine months. And he said, Why do we have nine months? I said, I'm really close to being millionaire, but I gotta hit millionaire status. And I need this much cash flow by my 34th birthday, which was June that year. I said, because in September, I'll be having a baby. And he went, what dropped the phone, and so he said, All right, so I wired him the money, and he said, meet me in Oklahoma City the next day. Yeah, well, there's a ticking clock. Yeah, there was my timeline nine months. But we went straight to the streets. And I think for the for me, I was privileged to be with a whole team, and I don't think I am a massive advocate. If you don't know what you're doing and you haven't done it, why take 100% risk in any industry that you've never played so I only got 15 20% of that run. But here's what I came with. In 1999 I knew how to build a database because Bob Proctor taught me that. So during the cash flow era, I bought my own inventory, took out debt, bought $500,000 of games, put them in my own warehouse so I could collect my own database. So from 96 to 99 I had acquired 18,000 people who had bought Rich Dad, Poor Dad books, cash flow, cash flow, 101202, all his the products, and I had my own financing. So I was doing my own product. I had my own stuff. And all this is a big backstory, because a lot of you in real estate don't have a database. And here's the value I brought to that team that earned me another almost 10, 15% of equity is I brought 18,000 people, and when they saw that, they're like, you could help us raise the money, I said, I don't know to raise money. And they said, we do so again, I bought my way into a team for 25,000 in a mentoring program. There's about 10 of us that met in Oklahoma City, went down to Norman, and within less than a month, we raised $16 million out of that database. They did. I didn't know how to do it again. I sat on the sideline, but highly mentored and guided. So I was on a winning team from the beginning. We bought so much real estate, and then we went into the remodel. And so right then it's like, well, let's own the construction company, so that way we could get better buys. We can buy for the whole street. We can buy for the whole apartment. So we bought we started construction companies. We started being the distributor of the windows and doors in Oklahoma. We did that in Kansas. Now we do flooring as part of the distribution. We've done stoves. I mean, you name it, if you're going to buy it, buy it from yourself, or some way that you get paid extra. And then, like I told you before we went on the show, I would have the property management company. So we would start that, which was then came along with the cleaning companies. Gotta have the cleaning companies, the cleaning crews, the hauling crews. You're gonna pay one 900 got junk, buy your own truck, lease your own truck, haul your own stuff, and then rent it out lease it to others. So when we say cash flow fast in real estate, I went all in. So I own 51% of every property management company, and I put a ad in the paper for an electrician or a plumber, because they were mine most of two expensive things. And so they became partners. And I just made a lot of stuff, quite frankly, but I made it up with a lot of mentoring and guidance, of which those guys are still great, great friends of mine. We still own a little bit of property together. We went to Mexico and did a whole run through Mexico. The team was the most vital part. And what I say to folks in real estate, if you want to go big is you better get a database. I just find key that so many people in real estate don't understand. The Association of having a database, and the way I describe it is, today I might not want to buy, but if you don't have my name, phone number and email, and you don't continue to market to me the day, I am ready to buy or sell, you're no longer on my radar because you're not keeping in touch with me. Your job is an agent, a broker, an investor, I mean, is to build this database of people who then will go along with you on a journey. And I can tell you, it was a very blessed to have done it that way, but that 18,000 is what helped me become a millionaire. Because I had the people. I didn't know what to do with them. I didn't know how to raise my I didn't know anything about a PPM. I knew nothing, but I learned it all, and I was under a very, very successful. You know, decades and decades of success team. So, you know, they were 20,30, years my senior, but boy, I learned. I really leaned into it. And I think people do buy into programs and mentoring communities, but they don't do the work. And I see it all the time, I don't know how many people, and I'm holding up my millionaire maker book, and then this latest one, which is how I made my kids millionaires on paper at 10, again, by using trust real estate. Put them in my real estate company, shareholders,   Keith Weinhold  26:05   make your kids millionaires. Is the title of the book you just held on that second one.   Loral Langemeier  26:10   That one's a 2022, that was my latest best seller, and how I did it with my kids. And again, this back to The Parenting. So I can go a lot of ways, Keith, but I think the do it fast is go wider. I think so many people just go into buying just the asset, and they don't like I'm in the cannabis space right now in Nevada, legal. I'm an illegal cannabis I have licenses and very similar, if you're going to go in and you say seed to sale, you own everything like so I mean, the guy who's running my farm, he owns the label makers. He owns the, I mean, if you name it, he owns the nutrient company, because you need nutrients for the plant you're going to own. You're going to own. So the more you own of what you do and you have to pay, the more you keep your cash flow. And again, I see that mistake with real estate people subbing all the work to so many people. It's like there's so much cash that just went out that could be at least a percent of that could have stayed home with you. Sure   Keith Weinhold  26:59   100% there's an awful lot there. You're a big believer in vertical integration, in bringing in all these levels and stages of construction and management and so on, and bringing them in house. And yeah, it's interesting. You talk about the importance of the team. Here, we talk about how your team, whether that's your property manager, your mortgage loan officer, your 1031 exchange agent, how your team is actually even more important than the property itself. And yeah, when it comes to having a database these names Laurel, it's amazing, in a way, reassuring, in a high tech world with AI, that it still comes down to that primordial human connection of people and who you know you're the listener. As you've listened to Laurel, you could probably tell that she was a star student, which is why she's now a star teacher and mentor so much more when we come back with Laurel Langemeier, this is Get Rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold.   you know what's crazy? Your bank is getting rich off of you. The average savings account pays less than 1% it's like laughable. Meanwhile, if your money isn't making at least 4% you're losing to inflation. That's why I started putting my own money into the FFI liquidity fund. It's super simple. Your cash can pull in up to 8% returns and it compounds. It's not some high risk gamble like digital or AI stock trading. It's pretty low risk because they've got a 10 plus year track record of paying investors on time in full every time. I mean, I wouldn't be talking about it if I wasn't invested myself. You can invest as little as 25k and you keep earning until you decide you want your money back, no weird lockups or anything like that. So if you're like me and tired of your liquid funds just sitting there doing nothing, check it out. Text family to 66866, to learn about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund again. Text family to 66866.   hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine at Ridge lending group NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start Now while it's on your mind at Ridgelendinggroup.com that's Ridgelendinggroup.com.   Hal Elrod  29:43   This is Hal Elrod author of The Miracle Morning and listen to get it rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.   Keith Weinhold  30:01   Welcome back to get rich education. We have a well known name in the finance space. For decades, Laurel Langemeier with us. She has done an awful lot of real estate investing in her career, and as you can tell, she's got her own recipe, her own formula. She does things differently, she integrates. She brings things in house. Has multiple companies, and Laurel knows that you can be a profiteer when you serve the customer or the tenant, really, to the maximum amount. A lot of people have a gap there, and there's an opportunity cost. And Laurel, I know that one way you serve people is with Airbnbs in the Ozark region of Arkansas. Tell us about what you're doing there. That's really interesting.   Loral Langemeier  30:41   So we bought pretty big houses, and a few of them we actually the one we were remodeling it, and that's when we really got to know the Ozarks. And there's a lot of tentacles. And so to get, like, from the properties we were buying to where you would rent a boat or a jet ski or get your watercraft, it was all the way around the lake. I mean, that's two lane roads, and it just took forever. And I thought, well, let's so we have another LLC that we bought some boats and jet skis. And again, when you get to know what do people really go to the Ozarks part that we call it the Redneck Riviera. They go to party. They go to party more than they need some bougie house to stay in. That's not what they really come they want to stay on the docks. So instead of putting a lot of money, we said, how can we force Do we have one property has 22 beds, so 22 people can sleep, but they just barely sleep there because they party. So we put more money in rehabs, into the dock, expanding the dock, big sound systems, a big bar, refrigerators, just made it super fun. And then when the tenants come, they don't just rent for the night. We also give them. We'll get your groceries and booze. We'll stock your bar down on the dock if you want. We'll pull up our boats and jet skis. So we had our own small fleet. Again, we just stacked on more service. So when the tenants arrived, a we got, you know, anywhere between depending on the boats and the jet skis and the tubes and all the ropes and everything they wanted, water skis. I mean, whatever they wanted to rent. Basically, we became like a rental company, and everybody freaked out, and they said, Oh my gosh, you're going to get killed in insurance. You're not. I mean, yeah, it's a lot more planning, and it's more work to get all that prepared. But that was anywhere between 500 to 1000 more a night in just the Airbnb. So again, why? If you're going to do one thing, do more for them, the more you serve a client, I don't care what area it is, yeah, the more you serve people, the more money you will make, because they're going to buy it, they're going to have to go get their booze on their own. They're going to have to go get groceries like that's a whole day of getting all that gear to their property versus, let us just save you a day on your holiday and let us do it all for you. There's so many creative ways that you could just serve people, and if you don't know what to do, ask them, What a novel concept. I do surveys all the time, like always doing polling and surveys. Hey, I'm a money expert. What do you want me to talk about? That's what right now, if you really look at a lot of my YouTube and a lot of my social media, people want reduced taxes. So like, I'm doing a heavy, heavy lift, because it was a survey that told me to do it, not just because Laurel decided to do it. And I think so many of you don't realize your audience will tell you what they want and how they want to be served. If you're listening, that's how you make money. And so many people as you know too Keith, that come as the entrepreneur saying, This is what I'm going to teach you. Well, nobody asked, nobody asked for that content. You wonder why it's not working. Is because you're pushing your agenda versus pulling and giving and serving their agenda?   Keith Weinhold  33:23   Well, that is a great point. How do you know what people want? Two words ask them, which is exactly what you're doing there and the way that you're adding value and amenities onto a property there, like with what you're doing with Airbnbs in the Ozarks. It actually brings up a thought for another Jim Rohn quote. Jim Rohn said money is usually attracted, not pursued. Tenants are attracted to your rental units, new luxurious floors, and you'll soon profit when they compete over it.   Loral Langemeier  33:52   Yeah, it's a lot of this stuff. It's not difficult. It's just different. And I use that saying all the time because people are like, Oh my gosh, it's so scary. He said, It's not scary. The only reason why people put fear and risk and that kind of negative energy and words, you know, language around, I think real estate or money or any of that, is the lack of knowledge. Because if they don't know, anything that you don't know is scary, like you and I talked before the show about aliaska. I mean, if you don't know how to ski and you try to go to aliaska, good luck. You would be scared out of your mind. But once you learn, it's exhilarating. And I find out with everything. So anything you approach and just notice the hesitation, is it because you need to learn it then lean in and find the best in class to teach you and like, shortcut your learning curve. You don't have to study for years and years and years and years. Becoming an entrepreneur is a decision right now, today, in two minutes, make a decision, and then get to work on what your offers are. You say, Well, what am I going to offer? People ask them, and they'll tell you what they're going to buy from you, because they're buying stuff all day long in this economy, they are buying and going to continue to buy.   Keith Weinhold  34:56   If you yourself have a question for Laurel, you can always ask. Ask it at Ask loral.com L, O, R, A, L and Laurel, what are some of the more outstanding questions that you get over there, and how do you help them with some of the most important ones?   Loral Langemeier  35:12   I'd say the number the biggest flood of content and questions right now is, how do we reduce taxes? I made up this term called the tax trifecta, because what affects your tax return is how you make your money. If you're just an employee, meaning a w2 like in America, that's what it's called. And Kiyosaki said it best in Rich Dad Poor about there's two tax systems. You're an employee, you're going to get tax pieces. You live on what's left. You're an entrepreneur, and you make money inside of a company. You activate 81,000 pages of tax code, and then you pay tax. So you decide how, where you want to pay tax. I call this living corporate life. So when how you make your money inside, what kind of a company? Right? And then activate the 81,000 pages of code for the deductions. Like I teach my people, they'll never go on a vacation. They're gonna have a business trip. And when you're in real estate, you can go anywhere in the world legally on a business trip, as long as you do what's required to actually make it a business trip by looking at real estate, and it's not that difficult. I mean, the reason I'm in a lot of different businesses is my kids have never been on a vacation. I don't take vacations because they're not deductible. I take business trips. So I teach families how to employ their kids. How to do all of that, like, how do you activate your kids? I mean, when my son was born in 1999 he was employed day one. He had Roth IRA By the second day of his life, and he was funded every day. And he's 25 now, just that one move made him a millionaire, just the one move of maximizing your Roth IRA strategically using it to invest in real estate. So I use a lot of participating notes. I did all sorts of different plays to grow their Roths tax free, tax deferred. So I'm super active about the whole family being in a real estate business. I think real estate is it's the first one I went after, and it's still the first one I tell lots of families. I mean, it's got to be in your portfolio. I still own a lot of commercial real estate, some residential, I said, in the Ozarks, but most of mine went commercial within the last especially COVID, I went all commercial for the most part, besides a few pieces of residential. Back to what do I that tax trifecta, how you make money, how you activate the tax code. And then the biggest one that nobody in financial planners will not tell you about it, your tax, your CPA, won't tell you about it. TurboTax is never going to tell you about it. It's how you invest in alternatives. So real estate, obviously, is a big one. Gas and oil is a massive one. Aviation, water rights, mineral rights, conservation easements, carbon credits, those are the ones that affect your tax, because you get the depreciation schedules. So it's how you make it, how you use deductions and how you invest collectively makes up your tax. And so those are the kind of questions key some category of that, like I told you before the show, I have a new guy that just joined by over $20 million of real estate and only a few LLCs, no S corp, no C Corp, no trust. I'm like, and then you have these ridiculous insurance agents who say insurance will cover it all. You don't need to have an LLC or an S corp RC. You do? You do too. I would never live on just insurance that is such as 1960s conversation, like you guys got to grow up?   Keith Weinhold  38:17   Yeah? Well, you know, totally. And you mentioned Rich Dad, and it's really the Cash Flow Quadrant. And one thing that the Cash Flow Quadrant helps delineate is you touched on it your tax treatment. Tom wheelwright is the most frequent guest that we have ever had here on the show, being the tax guy coming from the rich dad school. And Tom wheelwright was really the first one to inform us that something like 98 to 99% of the tax code is actually a road map for where the deductions are. Only one or 2% of maybe are the tax tables and what you must pay almost all the rest of it, is this roadmap to give you a guaranteed ROI if you follow it, something that you don't usually get in investing. And you brought up a few interesting tax strategies there. I think one of them is how you employ your kids and get deductions that way, while your kids learn. Tell us more about that.   Loral Langemeier  39:11   I mean, when Logan was two, I put him out. He was painting buildings. He was around all sorts of, you know, title companies and closing tables. And then my daughter's same thing. So I take them with me. There's again, part of parenting is they have to be involved in your life. And I think so many parents just leave their kids home. They leave them with the device or their phone or some iPad. None of us have it like if they're gonna sit at a time, you know, a closing table, then I want them if they may not know everything at that moment, but that experience in that environment of just being a natural environment for them to know, to do business deals. It changes them. Changes your kids drastically. And then fast forward, when my kids are 18, they get an LLC for their birthday, and they're added on shareholders in a bigger way, because then I use again the roadmap. Because, you know, well, I always. Laugh, I say, but people read fiction novels and junk whatever. I'm reading the tax code. I think the tax code is the most creative, freeing body of work that has ever been done. It's fascinating. It's so creative. My son's becoming a CPA because of it. So when my son went to school, he was on a football scholarship. He played for Georgia, Southern starting center five years because I'm a single mom and I only make $42,000 I don't even own a phone. I don't own a car. I don't own a home, actually, because it's held in LLC It's an estate property   Keith Weinhold  40:32   I put or on paper or on papers.    Loral Langemeier  40:34   No companies own it all and trust on it all. So I own nothing like I literally live Rockefeller style, and I teach people that this really was beyond the millionaire maker stuff. But my point with the kids is then when he goes to school. So instead of going every Friday to watch him play football, on a Saturday, I went on a business trip to see my son, and he and I actually are looking again. That's in states pro Georgia, where Georgia's other is buying some apartments that we can then back into, and then then we go to the athletic department, and we know how much they will guarantee rent paying scholarship men to live in our apartment, like there are so many cool ways, and that that's how my son will get involved. So during all of my trips to watch him, Yes, I took one hour to watch him play football. Otherwise, I went to see my business partner. So my point is, and when he came home, he had to come home, not to just come home, but he came home to see his business partner happened to be his mom. So there's a way to put your kids into these businesses early and put them through school, have school that can't be written off. And even though he's done a scholarship, all that travel was still not a deduction, unless we structured it as a deduction to the real estate company. There's so many strategies that I honestly, Keith, I made a lot of these up. And I went to, you know, my top tax team, and I said, why can't we do this? I said, I want this to be done. Tell me the legal way to do it, and then they would guide me. So then I just turn around and I teach other people that when you do your own taxes, number one, you're not educated enough to do your own taxes, so why people do Turbo Tax or even H R Block? I mean, that's where kindergarteners play. And if you want to be a millionaire, you have to get experts around the table that really know what they're doing. I mean, a proper tax strategist at the level we have, and I have, like, 28 people on my financial teams that integrate. I mean, they have masters of accounting. So they've gone to school five and six years. They've sat for four exams and had 2000 hours of audit. So whenever, like an engineer or somebody, even a real estate investors, try and do their own taxes, I'm like, it's a highly, highly skilled expertise. So anyway, I could go into the team approach. I don't think Keith, I know so many people are so close to getting it really all right, but their sequence is completely out of order, and they're just at call tax and invisible paying. You're just used to it. You're just used to paying it because you think you have to. And you've been scared by the media that it's this big, scary thing, and the IRS is going to come get you. It's like, no, they're not. This is legal to do all this stuff. You just have to do it right and document it right   Keith Weinhold  42:57   right. And that's part of your team, your tax team, and that's another good ROI. If you pay a tax preparer and strategist 5k which is more than most people, maybe they're making you 10x that or more with their knowledge of the tax code. And for you, the listener that might find the tax code to be dry reading, you know, for a lot of people, you're probably right that it is dry reading. But if you think of it this way, if I act on what I read, then I am getting paid for what I'm reading here in the IRS tax code. Well, Laurel, do you have any just last thoughts, overall, whether that's about wealth, mindset or real estate or anything else, as we're winding down here   Loral Langemeier  43:35   any question ever you just go to ask Laurel, A, S, K, L, O, R, E, L, ask questions. Make a request you can ask about I have online events. You can ask for free tickets. You can ask her ebooks. So ask her whatever you want. We're super generous on giving gifts away to especially our new listeners and new folks. But a lot of it's, I'm going to say it's active engagement. That's a term I've used as I walked into 25 and I look at the people I've made over 10,000 millionaires, probably 12, 14,000 by now. But the difference between those who make it and those who still struggle is active engagement. I'm showing this on your screen just to have it on video, but I got this magic wand because people say I have a magic wand. I said, I do. I naturally now officially have one, and it comes with pixie dust. But it doesn't really matter. It won't work. I can't just, you know, anoint you with my little wand, and all of a sudden it's magically going to change. You have to actively, like you said, study the IRS code, study my books like my millionaire maker is a blueprint for how to be a millionaire. So there's seven families in the book. Pick which one you're closest to and what you've done to yourself, and then start the pattern, and there's a pattern and a sequence for everybody, for seven different kinds of family, and what you've done to yourself. And I also live the last kind of words I would say to people is that I've been doing this way too long. I have no judgment, no criticism about what you did to yourself. A lot of people are ashamed or embarrassed, like I can't believe I'm this old and I should be farther along. So what now? What is my. Saying, so what happened or how you got here? What do you want to do about it now? So we start with a new, fresh line and stand and let's go and you can create anything you want with the right team around you and the right initiative. So just know you'll be actively engaged in this. This isn't me, doing it for you or to you. It's with you, and you have to own it. You have to own your own wealth. Nobody else cares about it more than you.   Keith Weinhold  45:23   these strategies work as long as you do. Laurel, it's been a great mindspring of ideas for the listener here. Thanks so much for coming onto the show.   Loral Langemeier  45:32   Thank you. Appreciate it. Look forward to hearing from many of you and helping you out.   Keith Weinhold  45:35   Oh, yeah, a wide range of expertise from Laurel Langemeier there. And you know, we're talking about the awareness of the gap between who you are and who you want to be earlier. Really, there could be a gap between how you're utilizing your rental property currently and what it could be Laurel found more ways, for example, to serve her short term rental tenants in the Arkansas Ozarks with providing boats and jet skis dockside to her tenants. In fact, there's a book all about this called the gap and the gain. It was published about five years ago, and let me tell you what it's about and maybe save you 10s of hours of reading most people, especially highly ambitious people, are unhappy because of how they measure their progress. We all have an ideal. You have an ideal. I have an ideal. It's a moving target that is always just out of reach. Well, when you measure yourself against that ideal, you're in the gap. However, when you measure yourself against your previous self, you're in the gain measuring your current self versus your former self, that can have enormous psychological benefits. That's how you can feel like you're making progress, and that gives you confidence, and you make more progress. You might have only owned two rental properties last year, and you're going to have four this year. So you want to make that comparison, don't make the comparison that Ken McElroy has 10,000 units and you never will big thanks to the driven and experienced Laurel Langemeier, today, I feel like she has a narrow gap between who she is and who she could be.    There is a lot happening here at GRE in our newsletter called The Don't quit your Daydream letter. I recently let you know about what chat gpts ai updates mean for real estate investors, and I showed you that before and after photo of how you can now tell AI to just renovate your rental unit, and within just a minute, it shows a pre and post renovation, it shows what the renovation would look like. AI is also being used for fraud, like to generate fake receipts or insurance fraud that makes a property look damaged when it really isn't. And every few weeks, I like to send you a good real estate map, like the recent one that I sent you, showing the cost of living by county and how that map was almost like a cheat code on how you can find the best real estate.    Also here at GRE our free coaching is helping connect you with properties. Many of you are interested in BRRRR strategy properties lately, I recently reshot the entire real estate pays five ways course, and I updated it for today's times with today's numbers. I'm giving that away for free, those videos and even giving a free gift at the end of the course, I share those resources with you in the Don't quit your Daydream letter as well.    And then, of course, I sent you details on the Great Investor Summit at sea cruise starting in Miami, sailing the Caribbean June 20 to 29th and how you can have dinner with me and the other faculty, like Robert Kiyosaki, Robert Helms, Peter Schiff, Ken McElroy and more. And this particular cruise event is not cheap to attend, although I don't make any money from the event, but our Don't Quit Your Daydream letter is totally free. I would love to have you as a reader, and you'll stay informed on all these Real Estate Investing Insights and trends and events and more, otherwise, you're really missing out. See, the reason that I write the letter is that I have visual things to show you that I cannot do on an audio medium here, like this, like those real estate maps. And before and after photos. I write the letter myself. You know so many other letters are now AI generated. I write this myself. It is all from me to you. And if you aren't already a reader, you can get the Don't quit your Daydream. Letter free right now, just text text GRE to 66866, and by the way, we don't text you the letter each week. That would be intrusive. The letter is emailed. It's just a convenient way for you to opt in. You can do that while it's on your mind again. Text GRE to 66866, and I'll turn it alternative way to get the letter is to visit get rich education.com/letter that's get rich education.com/letter. I've got a lot more for you next week. Until then, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.   Speaker 1  51:01   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively.   Keith Weinhold  51:25   You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info, oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access, and it's got paywalls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers. It's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters. And I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read, and when you start the letter, you also get my one hour fast real estate video. Course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream letter. It wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now. Just text GRE to 66866, while it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text GRE to 66866.   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, getricheducation.com    

Real Wealth Show: Real Estate Investing Podcast
Mortgage Rates, Conforming Loans, and the All-In-One Loan: What Real Estate Investors Need to Know

Real Wealth Show: Real Estate Investing Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 8, 2025 22:53


Wondering how today's mortgage rates and loan types could impact your next real estate investment? In this episode of The Real Wealth Show, host Kathy Fettke and guest Caeli Ridge unpack the current lending landscape and what it means for investors looking to grow their portfolios. They break down the differences between conventional and non-QM loans, how to navigate beyond conforming loan limits, and why the All-In-One loan is gaining traction among experienced investors. You'll also learn how debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) loans work, when refinancing makes sense, and how to make smart borrowing decisions based on your unique financial goals. Topics Discussed: 00:00 Intro 01:45 Mortgage Rates 04:15 Conventional Loans 07:47 Non-QM Loans and DSCR 14:31 All in One Loan Product LINKS: RealWealth® WEBINARShttps://realwealth.com/webinars/ JOIN RealWealth® FOR FREE https://tinyurl.com/joinrws1051 FOLLOW OUR PODCASTS The Real Wealth Show: Real Estate Investing Podcast https://link.chtbl.com/RWS Real Estate News: Real Estate Investing Podcast: https://link.chtbl.com/REN FREE RealWealth® EDUCATION & TOOLS RealWealth Market Reports: https://realwealth.com/learn/best-places-to-buy-rental-property/ RealWealth Videos: https://realwealth.com/category/video/ RealWealth Assessment™: https://realwealth.com/assessment/ READ BOOKS BY RealWealth® FOUNDERS The Wise Investor by Rich Fettke: https://tinyurl.com/thewiseinvestorbook Retire Rich with Rentals by Kathy Fettke: https://tinyurl.com/retirerichwithrentals Scaling Smart by Rich & Kathy Fettke: https://tinyurl.com/scalingsmart DISCLAIMER The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are provided for informational purposes only, and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any securities or to make or consider any investment or course of action. For more information, go to www.RealWealthShow.com

Get Rich Education
546: What the Bible Says About Money

Get Rich Education

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 24, 2025 41:56


Keith hosts a discussion with Pastor Jon Sanders on the Bible's teachings about money.  They explore the context of biblical verses, emphasizing that wealth itself is not sinful but how it's used matters. They discuss tithing, noting it's a principle of generosity, not a legalistic rule. The Bible does not condemn real estate or property ownership, as it is not explicitly forbidden. Wealth can be a tool for doing good and providing housing for others. Resources: Explore the EntrePastors platform to learn more about Pastor Jon Sanders' work in helping pastors with entrepreneurship and financial management. Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/546 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching:GREmarketplace.com/Coach Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai    Keith Weinhold  0:01   Welcome to GRE, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, what does the Bible say about money? Is it virtuous to acquire wealth, or are you going to hell for that one Bible verse reads, "it is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for a rich man to enter the kingdom of God". I asked Pastor John Sanders all about it, as well as what other religions say about money today on get rich education   since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, who delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com   Corey Coates  1:19   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  1:35   Welcome to GRE from Bel Air, Maryland to Bel Air, California and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and this is get rich education. I hope that your week's off to a good start with 546 weekly episodes. We've approached investing from a lot of angles. Commonly, it's a strategic approach, but there are other wealth building approaches we discussed here, like mindset, what type of vehicle you're going to use, the academic perspective, the protective approach, then there's a mathematical angle. But today, for the first time, it's the theological perspective. Now, even if you're not a Christian or religious at all, what the Bible says about money has import, because the Bible is the number one selling book of all time, so it surely affects the mindset and the approach of those around you. I've got a pretty inflammatory question for you, if money is the root of all evil, then why do they ask for it at church? Now I say that a little jokingly. We're going to debunk that in fact and more as Pastor John joins us shortly, I will hit that verse head on and ask him about it, the verse that says it is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for a rich man to enter into the kingdom of God. I'm really interested in what he says about that. I mean, in fact, that's actually something I wanted to know about for decades. That's always piqued curiosity inside me, and especially since I'm the 10 plus year host and founder of a platform called get rich education. There's a lot I'd like to ask about that. There is more that I'd like to ask about, if we get time. I'd also like to know what the Bible says about tithing and real estate and gambling and more. Let's meet Pastor John.   With over 20 years in pastoral ministry, this week's guest, also has a passion for using his voice to motivate and inspire ministry leaders. His father was also a pastor. He is non denominational. Hey, welcome to GRE Jon Sanders.   Jon Sanders  4:04   Keith, this is my pleasure to be here. Man, been looking forward to this conversation, so thanks for having me on the show   Keith Weinhold  4:09   me too. We're doing something really different this week. I've been anticipating it, and I sure have some specific things I want to ask you, even some Bible verses later that are somewhat antagonistic to wanting to build wealth. But before we drill down and get into that, just big picture, John, when we talk about what the Bible says about money broadly, what should we keep in mind    Jon Sanders  4:34   with anything when it comes to Scripture? One of the greatest principles to keep in mind is that context matters, because without context, you can make the Bible say about anything you want it to say. And that's probably what we're going to dig into a little bit, is that if you just read a verse in one little snippet and divorce it from not only its context, but the rest of Scripture, you can come away with a pretty skewed view, as many people in the world. Have, as well as many people in the church, many Christians have a skewed view about money and about wealth because of some, you know, certain verses that I'm sure we'll get to today, I would say just an overarching principle, context matters, and hopefully we can show a little bit of that context in our conversation and just see that maybe what you thought the Bible says about money is not, in fact, what the Bible says about money. We'll see where this goes.   Keith Weinhold  5:24   Context matters and mindset matters. You know that we're a real estate investing show, but episode number one of the get rich education podcast from 2014 is titled, your abundance mindset. Do Christians worship a God of abundance, where he would want you to use your God given talents to flourish and produce and make more in this world. Or do you not see it that way?   Jon Sanders  5:53   I 100% see it that way. And what's interesting to me is that as believers, we would say, many of us would agree with things like we believe in this limitless God who spoke the universe into existence by nothing more than the power of his spoken word and just the abundant world in which we live like we believe in that God who can do all kinds of miraculous things. And yet, then, when it comes to the subject of money, so often, we live out something very different than that. With such scarcity, we act as though there's such limited resources at our disposal, and our thinking is so enmeshed in poverty thinking and scarcity thinking. And I think as God's people, we ought to be some of the most abundant thinking people there is because we are supposedly tapped into the most abundant source the world has ever known. So there is a discrepancy there, but I'm 100% with where you are on that we serve an abundant God, and we would do well to think in abundant terms, because I think we're gonna find that his resources never run out.   Keith Weinhold  6:57   Right? We're here to think abundantly in flourish. One thing I like to say is, don't live below your means. Grow your means. Christians should when I'm asking you as a pastor, I would think they would believe that God was an abundant creator. He created the earth that we live on a gigantic piece of real estate.    Jon Sanders  7:17   Yeah, and so much more. And like I said, it never runs out. Whether we're talking about his physical resources or we're talking about the more intangible resources that we can't necessarily hold in our hands. There is always more than enough with the God that we serve. And yet, how then do we come to such places of scarcity and limitation? I would contend this Keith that if someone is actually reading the Bible, applying the principles to their life, they will inevitably, more and more grow in their wealth and in their abundance and in their ability to manage well the resources that God has put into their hand. Now that's not the same as what some might put into the category of what they'd call the prosperity gospel, where God wants everyone to be rich and never to have any sickness or financial difficulties like those are not the same messages. We're not all promised the same exact outcomes, but I believe if we follow the timeless principles, the laws that have been established by the Creator that he's shared with us through His word, I think we can expect to flourish and thrive and prosper and do well and continually grow whatever resources he's put into our hands. As a matter of fact, I would point to a parable that Jesus told, many of the parables that Jesus told in the Gospel accounts of Matthew, Mark, Luke and John, many of them deal with money. Now, all of Jesus's parables got to a deeper, like more Kingdom spiritual lesson. But in many of them, he used something that all of us can relate to, and that is money. Because scripture has a lot to say about money. And then, specifically, in one of those parables in Matthew 25 I believe Jesus told a story of the master who represents God in the story how he gave differing talents or financial amounts to three different servants based upon their own abilities. And right in there, there's some truth that we can learn and apply, that we don't all have the same abilities, but God allows us, He gives us certain things that are in our capability to handle, and then with that comes an expectation that we manage that well, because it doesn't actually belong to us. That's a big principle of money in Scripture is that none of it actually belongs to us. All of it belongs to the Lord, but we are stewards. That's kind of a Bible word. We are the managers of the resources He's given us. And even from that parable I mentioned in Matthew 25 there is an expectation that we take what has been entrusted to us and we multiply it. And if we fail to do that, the words of the master that Jesus. In that parable, were you wicked and lazy servants? The words of the master to the one servant who basically squandered what had been entrusted to him, he was called a wicked and lazy servant. So there's an expectation that we are not wicked and lazy servants, but that instead, we take whatever resources have been entrusted to us and multiply them for the good of God's kingdom and for His glory. So that's just one. I mean, there's countless stories that Jesus told that we can learn principles like that from.   Keith Weinhold  10:30    I think building prosperity is being the opposite of laziness or sloth. Is it bad to be wealthy?    Jon Sanders  10:39   I would say, according to the Bible, 100% No, it is not wrong or immoral or sinful to be wealthy. We can point to many heroes of our faith who were men and women of great wealth. We can also point in Scripture to wicked people who also were men and women of great wealth. So the question is not whether or not someone has money. That's not what sets them apart as righteous or wicked. It's what they do with that money. It's how they live. It's their character that really is what we measure that by. And so here's what I would contend without money, it's really hard to do good things in the world. You're very limited when you put money in the hands of good people, those people can use those resources for all kinds of good purposes and to help a lot of people. I mean, that's just common sense, and so it's not a bad thing for righteous people to multiply their wealth and to grow in their wealth in order to be in a position to help even more people.   Keith Weinhold  11:39   The way I think about it, is that producers and entrepreneurs, they need to give first before they can create any prosperity for themselves. And what's foundational in our mission here at GRE is to do good in the world, provide housing that's clean, safe, affordable and functional. You're giving you're qualifying for a loan, you're buying property, you're taking on risk before anything can possibly come back to you and John here, I've often touted, hey, we provide housing that's clean, safe, affordable and functional. We can maybe abolish the term slumlord, for example. So that's what I'm talking about with doing good in creating prosperity for ourselves as a result of that.   Jon Sanders  12:24   Yeah, and I'll point out another biblical principle that you just outlined, whether you realize it or not, and that is the law of sowing and reaping. It's the law of the harvest. You don't have to believe in God for this to be true. If you go plant something, you will get more of the thing you planted, if you tend to the soil well, and if the conditions are right, and you mentioned it, that is risk. Like there's risk involved. Every time a farmer goes and sows seed into the soil, like there's no guarantee that I'm going to get that back, things can happen. It's a believable risk. It's a relatively manageable risk. It's a risk, nonetheless, to take a great amount of seed and put it into the soil in faith. And I want to point that word out. There's faith when we as entrepreneurs go out, we're acting in faith when we take that risk. And again, it's something that we have to kind of weigh it out, is this a wise risk to take? But at the end of the day, there still is no guarantee. But there is that law of sowing and reaping and the law of the harvest. And I think God honors that, I know he honors that I believe he is honored by our faith. It literally can be an act of worship done to him was we go start businesses, as we invest in real estate, as we buy properties like that, actually can be part of our worship, and us fulfilling the very purpose for which God put us here, to manage what he's given us, to multiply it, and then to do good with it, as you're describing. I agree totally.   Keith Weinhold  13:48   that's a good point. It really is an act of faith to provide an income property, faith that you're going to have a rent paying tenant, faith that you're going to be able to maintain the place, faith that you're buying a property in a market where you have a good expectation that you're going to be able to have future rent paying tenants. Yeah, it really is an act of faith. Well, John, there are some specific verses in the Bible that are really well known and deal with money. One is the often misquoted verse that everyone is familiar with. And what's misquoted is that people say that money is the root of all evil. But as we know, that verse from the book of Timothy is misquoted. It is for the love of money that is the root of all evil. Can you tell us more about that, why it's misunderstood, and actually, just what that really means for the love of money is the root of all evil,   Jon Sanders  14:42   by the way, just stepping back a second in the conversation to your question, is it wrong to be rich? Here's another supporting text where the answer is no, because the verse you're speaking of the apostle Paul wrote this in a letter to Timothy. He's telling Timothy again, in the context, he's telling Timothy. To address the rich people in the church and say some things to them, teach the rich people some things, and he didn't tell them, you know, shame them for having wealth and for being rich. Instead, he's teaching them how to be rich, how to be a good rich person. And it's in that context where that line is found, that the love of money is the root of all evil. Fast forward to modern times. We've kind of thrown the word love out of it, and we just said, There it is. Money is the root of all evil, and we say it with a sense of self righteousness. As I'm sitting here, broke, living paycheck to paycheck, I don't want to be one of those evil rich people. That's not what it says at all. It's saying the love of money is the root of all evil, and we do need to step into this for just a moment. There are warnings in Scripture about money, because if we don't realize and recognize the power of wealth and the power of money, I believe probably one of the reasons God's word says more about money than it does so many other topics is because the danger that money has to compete with God himself. I often say I don't think it's God and the devil that are in competition with each other. In many ways, it's God and money, because Jesus even said you can't serve both. You can't have two masters. You'll either love the one or despise the other. That doesn't mean you can't worship God and have money. It says you can't worship them both, because your allegiance is going to go one way or the other, and the more wealthy we become. There is a danger in that, or maybe even before the wealth shows up. If there is this just burning desire to be rich above all else, it can pull us off course. It can pull our focus away from the Lord. So there is a warning in that that we should heed and listen to. Apparently, according to Scripture, money is powerful, and it's powerful for good and it's powerful for evil. And so if we're going to have some of it, and if we're going to grow the amount that we have, it sounds like it's a pretty powerful tool that we ought to know how to use and how to use properly, no different than when you throw the keys to the car to your teenage driver, like we just put a very powerful tool in their hands, and we pray and trust that they're going to use it wisely and not drive it off the cliff, you know, or kill someone in the process. And money's very much the same way. So the warning is good, but what's not good is to take it out of context and build this paradigm of somehow, the less money I have, the more righteous I am. And in the platform that I'm building, we have a online community. We call it entree pastors, that specifically helps pastors do better financially through entrepreneurial business man, we combat this mindset all the time, because we're dealing not only with people who've been in the church most of their life, but people who have led in the church, and there is so much scarcity thinking around money that we have to address so many of these themes that you and I are unpacking right now. So yeah, often I have found myself taking people to this Scripture and having them read it again and again until they hear themselves say that the love of money is the root of all evil, not having money that is not the root of all evil, it's the love of it. So hopefully that helps shine some light on that confusion   Keith Weinhold  18:15   yes, so one can take it too far if it becomes the love of money? Well, there is a verse in the Bible. In fact, I think it occurs in more than one place. That verse is it is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for a rich man to enter the kingdom of God. How does someone that's building wealth for themselves square that up. We're going to talk about that more when we come back. I'm talking with Pastor John Sanders about what the Bible has to say about money. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold,    you know what's crazy? Your bank is getting rich off of you. The average savings account pays less than 1% it's like laughable. Meanwhile, if your money isn't making at least 4% you're losing to inflation. That's why I started putting my own money into the FFI liquidity fund. It's super simple. Your cash can pull in up to 8% returns and it compounds. It's not some high risk gamble like digital or AI stock trading. It's pretty low risk, because they've got a 10 plus year track record of paying investors on time in full every time. I mean, I wouldn't be talking about it if I wasn't invested myself. 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Chris Martinson, listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.    Keith Weinhold  20:56   Welcome back to get rich education. We've got a pretty special episode today. Our discussion is what the Bible has to say about money, and we're talking with Pastor John Sanders. He's breaking it down for us. John, this is the one thing I thought about more than any other before chatting with you today. It is that well known verse about the camel going through the eye of a needle. And John, I first remember my mom telling me about this verse. Perhaps I was as young as age 12, and that verse is, it is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for a rich man to enter the kingdom of God. Here I am a 10 plus year host of a show called get rich education, helping people build wealth ethically through real estate investing. But how do we square up that verse if we're looking to make more of ourselves financially?   Jon Sanders  21:53   Yeah, and like we said at the beginning of the show, if that's all it said, and if that's the only thing you knew, you would come away from that pretty convinced that Jesus thinks it's impossible to love God and also be rich, like there's just no way a rich person can enter the kingdom of heaven. But as we said, context matters. So if we kind of zoom out a little bit and look at the greater context of what's happening in that passage of Scripture, you will recall, and maybe some are hearing this for the first time. But there was a rich man who approached Jesus, and he basically was kind of wanting to justify himself, and so he asked the question, you know, what good things must I do to inherit eternal life and inherit the kingdom of God? And Jesus starts by saying, follow the commandments. And this rich guy basically says, I'm paraphrasing all of this. You can go read it for yourself, but he's saying I've done all those things which, by the way, side note, No, he hasn't. None of us have followed all of God's 10 Commandments and more, like we just I've broken every single one of them. We're all sinners. Probably you have too Exactly. So he's already off base, this rich guy. So then Jesus hits him where he knows it's gonna hurt, and he says, Okay, here's the one thing you're still lacking. Go sell everything you have and give it to the poor, and then come and follow Me. And what it says is that the rich man turned away very sad, because he had great wealth, and see Jesus exposed what this man really worshiped in that I don't believe that that is a commandment from Jesus to all of us to go, sell everything we have, give to the poor and come follow him. That was a specific statement spoken to this specific man, and it did exactly what it was meant to do. It kind of smoked out the real heart issue that was happening here. So then Jesus turns to his disciples after this man walks away sad because he was not willing to pay that price. And that's where Jesus makes this statement that is so classic, where we all know, you know, it's easier for a camel to pass through the eye of a needle than for a rich man to enter into the kingdom of heaven. If you keep reading a few verses later, Jesus goes on to say, with man, this is impossible. But with God, all things are possible. So it is possible for a rich man to enter the kingdom of God. It may be more difficult. It may be more challenging because, as we said a minute ago, when we do have great wealth, that wealth competes in many ways with our heart for the place that God wants to hold in our heart. It is easy when we have margin and we don't need God as much, or we don't think we need God as much. We don't necessarily have to humble ourselves as much when I have all these resources. But that's not impossible. It is possible for godly people to have great wealth and to bow in humility before King Jesus, and to worship Him, and ultimately, to inherit the kingdom of heaven and be better for it, and not, you know, worse off. So again, I hopefully that explains that a little bit or gives some more light to that, because if you just take that little snippet, you're essentially taking it out of the greater context and missing the point, and you're. Making the point something that Jesus never intended, which was to say, rich people can't get to heaven. That's a mishandling of that text   Keith Weinhold  25:08    yeah? Because I think it states that, or something close to it three times in the Bible, in the Quran, the Muslim holy book, also has something similar in it, yeah.   Jon Sanders  25:19   And again, I know in in the New Testament, where it's mentioned multiple times, it's probably because it's found in those Gospel accounts that basically tell the same story just from four different authors. So that's sometimes where you see that repetition in the New Testament is because it's the same story being told just from a slightly different vantage point a different author. But the principle is there, to try to say that scripture forbids people from being wealthy or from pursuing wealth, would be a complete misstatement. It's simply not true. You know, to read scripture in its entirety, you can walk away from it with this understanding that God, not only is he not opposed to wealth, but God is the source, because he owns it all. It all belongs to him, and he actually the more I walk in faithfulness with what he's given to me and what he's entrusted to me, the more I can actually expect will be given to me, because I will see the fruits of those labors multiplied. That's the path I'm on right now, unashamedly, unapologetically, I am working on growing wealth, not only for my family in this generation, but scripture says a righteous man leaves an inheritance to his children's children and man, what if we started telling that story more than trumpeting these verses that make it sound like God is really upset with people who have Money? What if we actually encourage God's people to go build wealth and create more of it? Yeah, because   Keith Weinhold  26:46   I've heard a few different takes on that verse, John, about a rich man not being able to enter the kingdom of God. You know, some have joked, Oh, does the church just want you to put everything in the offering plate and not have anything for yourselves? Another take on it, I guess. If I read the verse closely about how a rich man cannot enter the kingdom of God, well, don't die rich. You be wealthy and then bequeath everything to your heirs upon your death. So technically, you're not dying rich. There are a lot of takes upon that verse. Really appreciate getting your perspective and your interpretation on that context piece being really important, John, when we think about what the Bible says about money, in the intersection of both money and the Bible, oftentimes we think about tithing, which I think of that is giving a 10% of your income to the church. So do you have any thoughts about tithing, or just some of the other general things that the Bible says about money.   Jon Sanders  27:41   I certainly have some thoughts, but more importantly, Scripture says some things. So it really doesn't matter what John thinks about it, but tithing is a controversial subject, so let me start with maybe something that's not so controversial, and we can jump into the tithing. Here's something that is not controversial from Scripture. The more we give, the more of a blessing it is for us. The more that we can give, the more God blesses us. God blesses generosity. So hopefully we can all agree upon that For God so loved the world John 316 that He gave His one and only son. So there's a direct correlation between loving and giving. And the more that I give, the more God seems to bless my life. And I know it sounds cliche, if you grew up in the church, we always heard statements like, you cannot out give God. The more I give, the more God gives back. And again, I'm careful to say that because I don't want to treat God like a cosmic slot machine where I put in $1 and pull the lever and hope to get 100 it is, again, it's just one of those laws that God has established that he blesses generosity. So then the question just becomes, what does our giving look like? What does our generosity look like when we look to Scripture, Old Testament? Bottom line tithing was, I mean, it was commanded. It was part of the overall giving that God required of his people. And a tithe is a 10% of the first fruits 10% off the top. And it's like when people argue that, or they say, Well, I'm tithing 2% that's like saying you ran a three mile marathon. My marathon is not three miles, right? Yeah, tithing is 10% the question is, is tithing for modern day believers? Are we supposed to be doing that? I will share my quick thoughts with you. I believe we are under grace. We are no longer under law. So I don't think that this is a matter of salvation. It's not at that level. But I will say this, I believe Jesus commended tithing, and I'll tell you where it took place, and you can go look at this on your own if you want. I think it's in Matthew 23 again, the context is not really about tithing. The context is Jesus is dealing with the religious establishment. The people he had the harshest words forever were the religious leaders, and he's taken them to task. And he says in there, like you guys tithe off of your mint and your dill, like you're tithing off of everything, like the illegal. Stick level, and yet you're ignoring the greater elements. You know, mercy, love, sacrifice. And then he goes on to say, You should do the first without ignoring the second. And I'm paraphrasing again, so go read it for yourself. What many people look at that passage and they say, here it is, Jesus commended tithing. He basically said, No tithing is good. You should do that. One other case I would make for New Testament, tithing is simply this. When Jesus stepped onto the scene in the New Testament, He never lowered the bar that was set in the Old Testament law. He actually elevated it. I'll give an example. Jesus said something like you have heard it said, You shall not murder. But I tell you, if you hate your brother, you're worse than a murderer. So he elevates it from just the physical act of killing to the heart condition of hating that leads to the killing. He did the same thing with adultery. You have heard it said, Thou shalt not commit adultery, but I tell you, if you look at a woman with lust, you've already committed adultery in your heart. So he raises the bar, not lowers it. So my question has always been, when it comes to tithing, would we believe Jesus to lower that bar and say, Ah, it's not important. Don't do it. You don't need to do it. Or would we expect him to raise the bar? I actually think the bar has been raised. He commended the poor widow that gave everything she had, and it wasn't much, but it was 100% sacrifice, and Jesus praised her. Now I don't think he's that's prescriptive of all of us to go drain our bank accounts, but I think what God is celebrating in the New Testament is sacrificial giving. For me personally, my personal opinion is that tithing is just kind of a good starting place for biblical giving. But I don't hold it up as a legalistic rule that says Thou shalt tithe based on what we see in the Old Testament and how we see it transition over into the New Testament. That tithing is not a bad idea, but if you're a modern day Christian that says I don't believe in tithing, I don't think I need to tithe. Okay, cool. I'm not mad about it. My challenge to you then would simply be this, what does generosity look like to you, and are we lowering the bar? Are you pushing back on tithing because you desire to give less? And if so, maybe there's a heart condition. There of you wanting to cling to something instead of being open handed. It's not my place to sit and look over your shoulder and go. You need to give more of your income. I mean, the Holy Spirit does a better job of being the Holy Spirit than than I do. So really, that's between you and the Lord. But my question and my challenge to modern Christians would be, what does generosity look like for you. You know, what is your discipline or your habit, your system around giving? If there is none, I personally think that's a problem. I think there ought to be some level of generosity happening in your life, because you'll be blessed, and God will use you to bless others. And that's a pretty cool thing, when God gets to channel his resources through you to someone else. So I don't believe everything that God allows us to have in our hands is 100% for us to hold for ourself. I think some of it is he's using us as a channel or a conduit to flow those resources in other directions. So those are just a few kind of high level thoughts of not only what Scripture says about tithing, for sure, but also maybe how we might look at it in a New Testament context,   Keith Weinhold  33:23   there's some good questions for you, the listener, to ask yourself when it comes to the framing and the importance of your giving and your tithing. John, what does the Bible say about real estate or property?    Jon Sanders  33:35   There are places I can't tell you you know exact location in Scripture off the top of my head, but I know there are places in Scripture that talk about going and purchasing land, or somebody owning land, and so I believe scripture upholds the idea of personal private property, and private property ownership, obviously, under the context of what we said earlier, that all of it ultimately belongs to the Lord. But I think it's a good thing. I certainly will tell you this. It's not condemned in Scripture. I know of nowhere in Scripture where we are forbidden from pursuing real estate or pursuing land. Is it like I say on the flip side, I could find examples where people bought and sold land. I'll give you one. Just popped into my head. In the early church, Ananias and Sapphira, they actually were put to death. And it's a really deep story. The issue, the reason they were judged instantly is because they lied about it. But they had land, they went and sold it, and they did not give all of it to the church leaders. And that was not the issue. The issue was they lied about the fact that they were giving all so they wanted to look a certain way, and that's the sin that God was kind of rooting out of the early church. But right in there, I think it's in like Acts chapter four, maybe or five, right in that area, it says directly, was not the land yours before you sold it and after you sold it, was not the land the money yours to keep. Why have you done this wicked thing? And the thing, again, that they were being judged for was lying to the Holy Spirit. And it was kind of like in that moment in the early church, the Lord was saying, we're not doing this like we're not going to live this fake, hypocritical life. And he judged it instantly, kind of grateful that God doesn't still deal with us in that way. It's not to say that he could not. That's a quick story that popped into my head as an example of buying and selling land. So if you do buy and sell land, just don't lie to the Lord about about how much you sold it for, because he knows it was his in the first place. He knows how much you sold it for. So just be honest in your dealings. There you go.    Keith Weinhold  35:39   Well, I'm grateful that the Bible doesn't say you have a limit of five rental properties. That's really good to hear. Right? Well, John, as we're winding down here, we've talked about Christianity and what the Bible says about money. Are there any non Christian religions that, just if you could spotlight one, that have a really interesting approach to money, whether that's Muslims avoiding debt, or anything, Hindus or Buddhists believe just any one thing. That's particularly noteworthy with non Christian religions approach to money.    Jon Sanders  36:09   I'm going to acknowledge a lot of my ignorance when it comes to other world religions. I can speak of one thing very locally to where I live, I don't know. It's kind of a religious thing. It's kind of a cultural thing. So where I live in South Dakota, I'm surrounded by, you know, an Indian reservation not too far from me. And the Native American culture is very prevalent here. And one thing that's been interesting to me to learn over the years is that, as I understand it, the Native American culture does not believe that you can own property. So they don't own land. They don't believe in owning land, at least historically, traditionally. So again, is that a religious thing? Is that a cultural thing? Not exactly sure. I don't share that belief, but it's an interesting take on things. So I'm sure there's so much more that a different guest could give you in terms of insight on other world religions when it comes to, you know, their view on certain deaths and philosophies around finances and things like that. For me, I really have studied one very deeply, and that's Christian faith. So I don't really feel like I'm much of an expert to speak from those other perspectives.   Keith Weinhold  37:18   Well, John, this has been enlightening to me. I've learned some things, and I sure might now know how to explain my way out of the whole camel in the eye of a needle. Verse there, if someone wants to learn more about you, tell them how   Jon Sanders  37:34   you can look me up online. I have a website called entrepastors.com me and my partner, les Hughes, as I said earlier, we help pastors provide better for their families through entrepreneurial business. If you want to connect with me, if you just go to entrepasters.com all of the links to connect with my social media and everything else are right there, and I'd be happy to jump on a call or serve you in any way that I can. So I would welcome you reaching out.    Keith Weinhold  38:01   Oh, thanks a lot for offering that to our audience. It's been a pleasure hosting you.   Jon Sanders  38:05   Thanks, Keith. Been a fun conversation. I appreciate you having me.   Keith Weinhold  38:15   Oh, yeah, good stuff from Pastor John today. I did not know that Pastor John would agree with me this much. I guess I'm frankly, a little relieved I learned some things too. Check out his platform again. It's called entre pastors. This was definitely an anticipated episode here today. The good news is we've got more anticipated episodes amidst an expected economic slowdown in potential recession. What actually happens to real estate in a recession? I will cover that and then with a lot of political turmoil and policy change coming from the White House that promises to massively swing the economy. I would like to have someone that's inside the White House and advising President Trump himself on his economic policy to come here on the show so that I can go ahead and ask them about it. Well, that's hard to do while they're in office and the administration is in full swing like this. So speaking of anticipated shows coming up here on the GRE podcast in future weeks, we have the financial advisor, the budget director of a past president that advised that president in the White House. He will be our guest here on the show. You'll learn what you can expect from him for the next nearly four years. And you know, something that might be even better to have that past president's White House Advisor here on the show, because he will feel emboldened to be more critical. Perhaps. Stay tuned for that big thanks to the terrifically knowledgeable John Sanders today in. Till next week, I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.   Dolf Deroos  40:07   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC exclusively.   Keith Weinhold  40:31   You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info, oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access and it's got paywalls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers, it's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read, and when you start the letter, you also get my one hour fast real estate video, course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream. Letter, it wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now. Just text GRE to 66866, while it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text GRE to 66866.   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, getricheducation.com

Get Rich Education
545: Eliminating the Property Tax, DC Real Estate Crash, Future Inflation and Interest Rates

Get Rich Education

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 17, 2025 45:53


Register here for the live online event to learn about ‘Cleveland's Amazing Cash Flow Opportunities' on Thursday 3/20. Keith discusses the potential elimination of property tax, highlighting its impact on home affordability, rent stability, population influx, and retiree financial relief. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis supports a constitutional amendment requiring 60% voter approval to abolish property tax.  Hear about the broader economic implications, including the potential for increased sales tax and widened wealth inequality.  GRE Coach, Naresh, analyzes the impact of federal layoffs on the DC housing market, predicting a decline in home values and increased private sector job opportunities. Both emphasize the importance of the BRRRR strategy for real estate investors. Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/545 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching:GREmarketplace.com/Coach Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai    Keith Weinhold  0:01   Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, there's a proposal to eliminate the property tax. Is a Washington DC real estate crash upon us, then a terrific guest and I are talking about the future of interest rates in inflation. And finally, an event you won't want to miss all today on get rich education.   Speaker 1  0:23   Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with get rich education podcast, sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com   Corey Coates  1:09   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education. You Keith,   Keith Weinhold  1:25   welcome to GRE from Fort Carson, Colorado to Carson City, Nevada and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are in for another wealth building week at get rich education. I don't like to predict interest rates, because it's really hard to do. But it does get interesting today, because our guest says that he will with his tight read on the economy, this is a unique time, perhaps in my entire life, where we have more new policies shaping the economy and real estate. Then, anytime I can remember, policies are made by politicians, but we don't get into the politics here, rather the policies and how it affects you and her. Any of these policies spicier than this one from earlier this month. Be mindful that this voice is from a person that made his name as a real estate investor.    Donald Trump  2:29   I also  have a message tonight for the incredible people of Greenland. We strongly support your right to determine your own future, and if you choose, we welcome you into the United States of America. We need Greenland for national security and even international security, and we're working with everybody involved to try and get it. But we need it really for international world security. And I think we're going to get it one way or the other. We're going to get it. We will keep you safe. We will make you rich, and together, we will take Greenland to heights like you have never thought possible before. It's a very small population, but very, very large piece of land and very, very important.   Keith Weinhold  3:17   Yes, the long time New York City Real Estate Investor there has gone well beyond Gotham now with plans to expand America's real estate empire, if you will.   Is this imperialism or America First policy? Or is it abject comedy? I guess that it could be all three. I'll let you decide. Well, the federal policy shakeups like that, also what they seem to be doing are emboldening others, including at the state level, where Florida, interestingly, recently proposed eliminating the property tax, taking it to zero. What is property tax free? Real Estate coming to you as well. Let's look at the prospects for this and what the effects would be of eliminating the Property Tax with some things that you probably never thought about before, and yes, your mind might shoot ahead. You might anticipate saving 1000s in lost tax dollars every year, even saving over 10,000 bucks a year per single family home in high tax areas. And you know, property taxes, sharpest critics, they say you have got to get rid of this thing, because you basically just endlessly rent your house from the government, and the rent goes up every year, and so therefore it's like forever rent that you have to pay. What's even worse is that the. Amount of property tax you pay is based on your homes or your apartment buildings market value. Well, because the government prints so much money and creates inflation that pumps up all the housing values, many of which are fake, inflated gains, and then your property tax goes up based on this phantom gain. And we've really seen that over the last five years, both real gains and Phantom gains. And then, plus, of course, each full dollar that you earn from your work right now is already taxed, say, down to just 70 cents, is what you've got left over. Well, then your 70 cents is further whittled down by property tax and all the other taxes that you have to pay out of that currently, all 50 states have a property tax every one of them, and you might already know that property taxes, they're basically highest in really two main places. When we look at property tax as a percent of your income. Those places are Texas and the Northeast, where they're upwards of 4% even 5% in fact, it's more than 5% of your income every year that goes to property tax in the state of Maine, but it's 4% or more in a number of states. And of course, if you don't pay them every single year until you die, the government will repossess your home from you. And almost 5 million Americans lose their home every year, many of them to this tax foreclosure. And in the US, the property owner pays the property tax, of course, but effectively, renters do too, because as landlords, we pass it along to tenants. It's embedded in that market rent amount, all right. Well, can we end the property tax? Well, former presidential candidates like Ron Paul and Herman Cain have proposed it. They didn't get elected. Texas has discussed it a lot, but yeah, it's Florida that has newly and boldly proposed eliminating the property tax. And like falling dominoes, if this gets abolished in one state, it increases the chances that more will follow. And Florida is a big state, the third largest in population. Well, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis came out and said this, taxing land and property is the more oppressive and ineffective form of taxation. That's what he said. Now let me tell you why he says that before we look at the chances that property tax will be eliminated, DeSantis says it's oppressive, because look see, you can personally dodge your income tax by making your paycheck smaller, although that might not be desirable, you sure could, and you can certainly avoid sales tax by consuming less, but see there is no escape from property tax. That's the oppression that's being referred to here. Let me tell you where we're at with eliminating the property tax, and then what the absolutely Titanic impacts of this would be DeSantis goes on to say, property taxes are local, not state. So we'd need to do a constitutional amendment which requires 60% of voters to approve it, to eliminate them, which DeSantis supports, even to reform or lower them. Right? But he goes on to say this, and here we go. We should put the boldest amendment on the ballot that has a chance of getting that 60% that's the end of the quote. Okay, so that's what it's going to take to eliminate property tax in Florida, where, if it happens, it could be a model for other states to follow, like we're seeing a little bit with the zero income tax states. All right, here's what I think would happen if they were eliminated. First home affordability would massively improve, skyrocketing property values. So many more people could afford the lowered monthly payment without property tax making prices soar, especially the values of lower price to median priced homes. They could really bring those into the affordability range, and they are the exact ones that make the best rental properties. What about rents? If property taxes went to zero, rents would stay stable. Landlords would do little or nothing to drop them. That's just how it works when people are already used to paying a certain price. Also population influx to the affected area. I mean that population influx that already works for states in attracting residents. That have zero state income tax, it would with property tax too. I mean that would clearly be desirable for people to own property tax free homes, especially in the beginning, before this settles in and those home prices soar. Also, retiree financial relief would take place. Those people on fixed incomes would really be helped. But you know what would not happen with governments slashed property tax revenue. They couldn't reduce their spending proportionally. I have no faith that they could. They would have to get their income from elsewhere and see shifting away from property tax over to beefing up your sales tax, that would hurt poor people the most. For example, in Florida's case, it's been studied, and they discovered they would have to increase their sales tax from the current 6% up to 12% to maintain the same services. Can you imagine 12% sales tax, and another effect of abolished property tax is that wealth inequality would widen because the property owners are the ones that benefit the most. So those are the big effects. But look, there are more problems eliminating property tax, that means the areas would need to find another way to pay for schools and roads and parks and local services like police and emergency responders. Maybe some of that stuff could be privatized. But if the tax, if that were just shifted away from local government and that went toward state and federal government, well, then local control would be lost. So that is a really undesirable side effect. But as a real estate investor, come on. The prospect of an abolished property tax that has got to excite you. I wouldn't count on it happening anytime soon, but now you know more about the prospects for it happening and what the impact would be with an elimination of property tax.    coming up soon. Here on the GRE podcast, what the Bible says about money when Pastor John joins us, it's going to be a show unlike any we've ever done before, and maybe will ever do again. You might not be a Christian or religious at all, but this is still relevant to you, because the Bible is the top selling book in the history of the world, and it has an indelible influence on the people around you. The book the Bible, says some things that make you wonder if wealth accumulation is even virtuous. We're gonna face those verses head on and get pastor John's insights there. That's a really anticipated show. I'm also gonna ask him what other religions have to say about money. Also some well known guests down the road here on the show, including the get rich education debut of Laurel Langemeier and more. LAUREL she was known as the millionaire maker since back in the days when a million dollars was actually a lot of money. To be sure that you don't miss these upcoming episodes on your pie catching device, hit the Follow button right now while it's on your mind and you'll be all set. Let's meet with this week's guest.   This week's guest is a familiar one, because he's on Team GRE, yeah, it's an in house chat with our super helpful investment coach. What he does is he helps you devise your big picture real estate strategy all the way down to connecting you with the exact right property addresses. He does that free at GRE marketplace business speaker Jim Rohn said, formal education will make you a living. Self education will make you a fortune. He's got both with an MBA from Duke. Then he worked at both banks and financial publishing companies before landing here at GRE in 2021 but importantly, for years now, he's been an active real estate investor, just like you and I are. Hey, a big welcome back to the show. Naresh Vista,   Naresh Vissa  14:13   hey, thanks for that wonderful, wow, amazing introduction, and thanks for having me back on. It's been a few months.   Keith Weinhold  14:20   Yeah, we haven't heard from you since October here. So what's going on in the real estate and economics world? From your vantage point, everyone's got a different slant on it based on what they see.   Naresh Vissa  14:32   There's a lot happening. As you know, Keith and our listeners, I'm not sure if they're following, but we're seeing tremendous, tremendous changes in the financial markets in general, and the financial markets include the real estate markets, and the impact is going to be widespread for better or for worse, I think, for better over the long haul. So what I'm talking about right now is, for example, interest rates, mortgage rates, home value. Use inflation, those are all very important parts of the economy. And we have this new government department called Doge, the Department of government efficiency. And Doge has gone in. And I loved your newsletter where you talked about Doge a little bit, and the walk that I took, as you called it, the awkward walk with a box full of your stuff or something like that. The sure, because I've been fired before. Yep, yep, it's happened to me once too. I took the awkward walk with the box of of random stuff. Yeah, lots and lots of of layoffs are happening within the government. The private sector continues to lay off people as well, like it usually does, and this is a big deal. The reason why it's a big deal is because aggregate demand. I don't want to say it will be killed, but we're already seeing an impact on home values in places that are very dependent on government workers, places like Washington, DC, Virginia, Maryland, there's actually a 10% year on year decline in home values in those areas. I don't know if you knew about that, Keith, but that's been the impact, and that's based off of the February statistics, the February numbers. So we've seen a decline, and that decline will likely spread to other areas that are dependent on federal workers, or where federal workers make up a good chunk of the local economy. I bring this up because we have providers in Maryland who we work with, who GRE has worked with for three or four years now, and they're seeing somewhat of a decline in the area as well. Because just you don't have to work in DC to be a federal worker. You can work in a major city like Baltimore or in a suburb in between Baltimore and BC. So we're seeing somewhat of a decline in our investors have all of a sudden gotten interested in investment property in the Maryland area because they knew, hey, we know GRE works in the Baltimore operates in the Baltimore area, and just want to scope out some homes. So previously, two years ago, three years ago, when list price was not negotiable. Now all of a sudden, the sellers are open to offers when there was no budging on offers three years ago. So I bring this up because the Department of government efficiency, I believe, to my knowledge, we're up to six figures. More than 100,000 workers have either been laid off or taken the buyout package, so we're somewhere in the six figures of people who got that now, they do have eight months severance. But with that being said, you would think that most humans, they'll immediately start looking for the next job. They're not gonna just enjoy for eight months and then scramble to find that next job. So this is having a widespread impact on housing, home values on it's going to have an impact on interest rates. We're seeing that interest rates are coming down, and if there's any sign, which I don't think there is, but if there's any sign of a recession, if there's any sign of bleeding, then the Fed is going to start cutting interest rates again. So I think we saw peak interest rates a few months ago, those interest rate values, those mortgage rates, aren't going to be going back up anytime soon. We know that almost it's almost a fact that we know that, because the Fed is not going to be raising rates, the most punishing thing they can do is just keep rates steady for a long period of time. But I didn't anticipate that later this year, they're going to start cutting again because of these widespread mass layoffs.   Keith Weinhold  18:32    And of course, Washington, DC is essentially ground zero for these federal layoffs. Federal jobs account for about 25% of DC jobs. You the listener, probably find it to be no surprise that that is the highest in the nation. But of course, this can also affect private companies, those private companies that have federal government contracts as well, and Naresh, before we open it up to the nation, we just think about DC. Do we have any idea of what properties are going to be hurt the most? A lot of times you might think of that in the case of what is the income range of these federal employees that are being laid off now, a lot of them are probationary employees, meaning that they're in their first year of employment.   Naresh Vissa  19:19   Well, it's a huge mix keep. That's a really good question, because I think a broker, like a real estate broker who's trying to sell will try to beef up the price and say, Oh, this doesn't affect us, and this only affects very high income folks. Well, that's the fact of the matter. Is there, if you work for the federal government, you're not necessarily ultra high income or ultra high net worth, you get the perks, and you get perks of working a government civil servant Job while taking somewhat of a lower pay. So it's actually a mix, because you have people in the first two years of employment. So the youngsters. Now, those aren't your homeowners, though, the 2223 24 those. Just say the people in their mid 20s, they're not the homeowners, they're the renters. So you can expect them to leave. They'll probably if they can't find a job, which it's going to be much harder to find a job in that DC area, they may move to Philadelphia or New York or California or wherever they can find a job. They'll just get up and move and move, and that's one of the benefits. I did that when I was in my early and mid 20s, many times where I just packed up and moved. I was more than happy to do it. So they're not your homeowners, but the homeowners are going to be the people who are getting laid off. So there are mass layoffs happening right now, and those people are homeowners, and then the people who are taking the buyout packages very likely, because they're either approaching or at retirement age, and it remains to be seen whether those people it's like a retirement gift, like, Hey, this is a great party. You know, getting eight months of free pay. Like, that's pretty amazing and happy retirement. Or maybe folks were like, they didn't say for retirement all that much, and they were planning to work another 10 years. Those are the people who could be sellers. Bottom line is, when you have this amount of mass layoffs, and we're seeing it in the data, there are more homes for sale today in that DMV area. I By the way, I used to live there. I used to live in in Maryland, great. More homes for sale today than I believe in the lab, definitely over the last five years. And it could be even over the last 15 years, to my knowledge.   Keith Weinhold  21:29   And for those that don't know DMV, that means Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, that area, yep. So   Naresh Vissa  21:34   there are more homes for sale, and the home values actually are now. This is a crazy thing. The home values in on average are back at 2020 levels. So basically, the peak of 2020, is what the home values are at today. And just my prediction. I don't think it takes a genius to predict this, but the layoffs are just getting started. They're just scratching the surface, and they're going to continue, because this Doge is a an 18 month program or an 18 month project. It's supposed to, it was called the Manhattan Project of our time. So they're just scratching the surface. And I'd expect home values in those areas to continue to fall. And you're gonna see it's not immediate. It's not like there are mass layoffs one day and then home values fall the next month. A lot of these effects, we won't start seeing them where the DC area won't start seeing them. 678, months down the road,   Keith Weinhold  22:27   Doge is more than just a meme coin. Now our own in house investment coach, Naresh Vissa and I are talking about the state of real estate today. More we come back, including nuracious thoughts on the future direction of inflation. This is Get Rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold   you know what's crazy? Your bank is getting rich off of you. The average savings account pays less than 1% it's like laughable. Meanwhile, if your money isn't making at least 4% you're losing to inflation. That's why I started putting my own money into the FFI liquidity fund. It's super simple. Your cash can pull in up to 8% returns, and it compounds. It's not some high risk gamble like digital or AI stock trading. It's pretty low risk because they've got a 10 plus year track record of paying investors on time in full every time. I mean, I wouldn't be talking about it if I wasn't invested myself. You can invest as little as 25k and you keep earning until you decide you want your money back, no weird lock ups or anything like that. So if you're like me and tired of your liquid funds just sitting there doing nothing. Check it out. Text family to 66866, to learn about freedom family investments, liquidity fund again. Text family to 6686    Hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine, at Ridge lending group NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start now while it's on your mind at Ridge lendinggroup.com that's Ridge lendinggroup.com   Jim Rickards  24:34   this is author Jim Rickards. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.    Keith Weinhold  24:49   welcome back to get recidiation. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, it's an in house chat with our own GRE investment coach, Naresh Vissa. He's been talking about the fallout on DC area. Jobs with the regime shakeup that we had in the White House starting earlier this year. And Naresh, I know that you have some thoughts about what this can do to the future direction of inflation. Tell us about it.    Naresh Vissa  25:12   Well, the first thing Keith is, if you look throughout history, or even your lifetime, what we saw from 2021 until today, really, because inflation is going up. I don't want to say it's going back up, but it is going up. We've seen an inflationary cycle that I've never seen in my lifetime. It's worse than any short term inflation cycle that this country has faced, at least in my lifetime. And I was born in the late 80s, let's just say 1990 and moving forward. So I bring that up because this is some pretty bad inflation that the world and that the United States has seen, and we don't need to get into all the details about how it happened or the mistakes that were made at the time when the Fed should have started raising rates, when the government should have stopped spending. That's all history. Moving forward, I'm actually very optimistic now that we've actually reached peak inflation. And when I say peak inflation, I mean during this micro cycle where inflation has gone back up from a 2.4% rate to a 3% rate. I think that's the highest we're going to get during this micro cycle. It did reach some I believe it was above 9% in 2022 yes, we're definitely not going to going to reach that. But 3% is still too high for the Federal Reserve. It's still too high for Americans. It's a major reason why Americans went to the voting boots and or the ballot boxes and made the decisions that they made because of inflation. It's the most important issue on most Americans minds. And I bring this up because I'm very optimistic that we've seen this 3% peak and that we're going to be going down moving forward because of the first half of this interview, the fact that all of a sudden, it is a sudden thing, because a lot of people weren't expecting this, I was, but a lot of people weren't expecting these mass government layoffs. And these mass government layoffs, they hit corporations. They hit private businesses. Anyone with a government contract is going to be hit anyone who was profiting off of waste, fraud, abuse, which you'll be surprised how many private and many times this is legal, like it's legal waste, it's legal abuse, and all of a sudden those checks are going to stop coming in, or the way of doing those business practices are going to stop because the government is clamping down on it. Why? Because it's taxpayer money, and taxpayers are upset. So the pullback or the elimination of waste, fraud, abuse, is definitely a good thing, but also the mass layoffs, we're going to see a decrease in aggregate demand. And when we see a decrease, I'll just say demand. I mean, that's more common, so we'll see a decline in demand. So when there's a decline in demand, what happens? Prices go down, and we're already seeing it. There's already proof of it. I already I brought up the housing market in the DMV area, and I can also tell you oil prices, for example, which is one of the main drivers of inflation, oil and gas energy prices one of the top three drivers, along with government spending. So you got mass layoffs, which will kill a lot of that aggregate demand, you have the oil, gas and energy, and then the reduction in government spending. So all that combined is going to lower inflation, going back to the energy prices, oil is down for really since the inauguration. That trend should continue, given the policy change, and that drives it drives inflation, it drives deflation, it drives pricing, because any good that you need, it's probably going to be transported with the use of energy the microphone you're using, Keith, how was it shipped? Maybe in a truck, and the truck is powered by fuel, or maybe something was sent in an airplane or in an actual ship. All that requires energy and fuel. So if you can lower energy costs, then we're going to see a continued decline in inflation, and energy costs continue to fall, continue to plummet. So I think this is good for inflation. Yes, it is. There is pain. We talked the first entire half of this episode on layoffs. Layoffs are they're painful. Taking that Walk of Shame is painful. There is going to be pain. But at the same time, remember, there are more than 10 million available private sector jobs, and we already have more than a million jobs that are opening up as a result of investment within the United States since January, 20 of this year. We have companies like Apple. We have Taiwan, semiconductor, Eli Lilly, the list goes on and on and on, of major corporations, big corporations, mid sized companies, who are opening up more operations within the United States. So the private sector jobs, which are really the innovative, long lasting jobs, they are growing there is just a tremendous. To opportunity, especially for young people. If I was young again, I wouldn't want to work for the government. I'd want to go work for one of these companies, where they're essentially going to be recruiting and begging youngsters to come work for them   Keith Weinhold  30:12   to corroborate nourishes lower inflation expectations. Since the beginning of the year, we've had a fairly sharp decrease in bond yields now. GRE listeners know by now that mortgage rates somewhat move with Jerome Powell's federal funds rate, but they're more closely tied to bond yields, specifically the yield on the 10 year T note. Okay, so then what makes the 10 year go lower? Hence, mortgage rates along with them, that is lower inflation expectations in a slowing economy. And another reason that bond yields and hence mortgage rates with them, fall, is when people sell stocks and make a flight to safety into bonds, that pushes up bond prices and lowers bond yields. So again, those are two factors that move bond yields and, resultantly, mortgage rates. And that's what has been happening.   Naresh Vissa  31:08   absolutely. And the important thing to remember something you touched on and what I talked about earlier, which is, yes, there is going to be a reduction in federal government and federal government jobs, and I think this is going to pass on to states as well. I think many states, in fact, I know that many states, even blue states, are taking a look at their books and saying, hey, you know what? We should be making cuts too. Because states, they operate on much tighter budgets, whereas the federal government, they basically have access to a printing press. State governments do not so the point that I'm making here is that, yes, it's painful. We're going through some pain right now. The DMV area is going through some pain. The stock market has gone through some pain. The Crypto markets have gone through some pain. Everyone's gone through some pain, but they say no pain, no gain, and the jobs are being transferred, as I brought up earlier, from the government sector to the private sector, and the private sector is where we can see tremendous, tremendous growth. Look at GRE for example, we're a private company, and we've seen tremendous growth, right? Tremendous growth in just innovation and and our services and our offerings. Now, imagine a bigger company that, and how much growth they can have. I think overall, I'm very optimistic and about inflation coming down, hitting that 2% target by the end of this year. In fact, I think it'll hit that 2% target a few months before the end of the year. And once we hit that target, then the Fed is going to start cutting rates again, and there's a chance that they may even start cutting rates before we hit that 2% target. I don't think they should. I thought they made a mistake doing that last year when they started cutting, when inflation hit 2.4% I think or two and a half percent, they started cutting again. I think the inflation rate has to hit actually 2% across the board, and then they can start with their gradual cutting. So if somebody asked today, hey, narration, which many do as, hey, how low do you think interest rates are going to go this year? My answer is not very low. This here, you'd have to have a cataclysmic Black Swan event, which it's called Black Swan because none of us can predict it, none of us can see it. So you'd have to have an event like that for the Fed to just basically slash rates overnight, which I don't see anytime soon. The other most popular question I've gotten this week is, are we going to go into a recession? You know, it seems like the world is falling apart and world war three and and stocks are tanking, and crypto is tanking, and this is tanking and that's tanking. This is when people told me a few weeks ago, actually. And my answer is, No, I don't think we're going to see a recession unless there's a black swan event. But I don't think so. And the reason is because of the tool that the Fed has. The Fed can cut, cut, cut. That's one of the Ben now, if we were at low interest rates, if we were at, let's say, historic low interest rates, and we were in this situation today, I would be very pessimistic and say it's not looking good. But any sign of a recession, the Fed is going to act at their next meeting. They won't even need to call an emergency meeting. They'll act at their next meeting, whenever that may be, they'll act and start cutting rates, and that's going to quickly stimulate the economy and get investors like our folks, because that's going to affect the bond yields, that's going to affect the mortgage rates, and investors are going to jump in to buy real estate, and people are going to jump in to buy discounts in the stock market, et cetera, et cetera.   Keith Weinhold  34:44   To your point, thank goodness the Fed has some ammo. Since the federal funds rate is about 4% they do have some ammo, and they can cut that rate down. You can imagine if the Fed funds rate was zero, like it was a few years ago, and they couldn't make cuts because they don't want to. Make it negative. So Naresh and I here talking about a number of forces that are largely outside your control. So these are the sort of things you can keep your eye on. However, there is something you can do that's very much in your control, and it happens this Thursday, where you can join Naresh and a co host on our upcoming live event. Tell us about it, Naresh.   Naresh Vissa  35:22   well, like you said, it's this Thursday, we're going to be talking about the BRRRR strategy, which has become the most popular real estate investment strategy. GRE has seen in its existence. Our investors are almost hooked onto this burst strategy. We're going to talk more about it on the webinar. Burr stands for buy, rehab, rent, refinance, repeat, and we'll get into all that in the webinar. It's a great way to build equity in a property very quickly, and to use that equity towards your down payment, so that you're not paying that standard, traditional 20 to 25% down. Some of our investors have done BRRRR's in markets like Tennessee, where they put zero down, or where they even made money on the if you want to call it the flip, so we're going to be talking about them. It's specifically geared towards we've done a burr event before on the Memphis, Tennessee market. This is a burr online event that covers the Cleveland, Ohio market, and that's a market that we have not touched on much here at get rich education, we've promoted some properties here and there. It's a really popular market, and it's a state that is growing and looking if someone were to ask me, Hey, Naresh what's the one state that you think can become the next Florida. And we've covered Florida here before. I live in Florida. Politics aside, Florida has boomed Since 2020. Or so. The number of how you can judge a state's growth is by its GDP numbers. And most importantly, are people moving there? That's the key. Are people moving there? And I would say Ohio is that next state where I think many people in the Midwest are going to say, hey, you know what, I want to go move there, because they're looking to make a lot of changes that are pro growth, that are pro real estate, including potentially eliminating the property tax, school choice programs there. That's huge for kids, universal school choice, and, most importantly, potentially eliminating the income tax now, these are all long term plans. It's not happening anytime soon, but those are the visions and the goals for Ohio, and I think they're going to happen by 2030 I would expect many of these plans and policies to happen. And what that means for real estate is it's going to boom because people are going to move to Ohio because of that, there aren't a lot of states that offer no income tax. So those are my thoughts on Ohio, and we're going to talk a little bit more about that on the webinar.   Keith Weinhold  37:50   Many expect Vivek Ramaswami to be the next governor of Ohio. If that comes true, Vivek has a lot of the same pro business policies that Ron DeSantis does in Florida, for example, Ohio has a high population, a stable population, America's seventh largest population, and a slow growing one with a great diversity of industry there in Ohio and Cleveland.   Naresh Vissa  38:15   So Keith, we have we're approaching record numbers of registrations for this event. We still have room for several more people. So I highly recommend people go to GRE webinars.com. That's GRE webinars.com. You can register for the event. It's going to be fun. All of our webinars recently have been a ton of fun. We've gotten great feedback, a lot of engagement. I think you'll learn a lot for sure. So I'm looking forward to seeing everybody there.    Keith Weinhold  38:42   Your co host, Phil, was on last week's show with us, both you and Phil, we'll be talking about this burr live event in Cleveland. I really suggest you, the listener, attend live. You might get a better Property selection that way, and you'll surely be able to ask questions, and sometimes with the other participants, they ask a really good question that you had not even thought of previously. It's our live burr event for Cleveland cash flow properties. You the listener probably remember when Phil was here last week, we gave an example of where you can get eight to one leverage and up to $500 cash flow on a single family home in Cleveland. I really recommend that you attend, and you'll be hearing more from the race, then you can sign up at GRE webinars.com We'll see if we break that record of, I think, 538 registrants last webinar that we had late last year. Do you have any last thoughts about the event? Naresh,   Naresh Vissa  39:41   like I said, before our events have it's free to attend. That's the first thing. You don't need to pay us anything. But we sell out these events. So I highly recommend that people go once again to GRE webinars.com. We can only hold a certain number of people. It's a few 100 people. So we want to sell out again. We hope you can. Join us and you will not regret I think you're gonna really like the Cleveland market. We're gonna talk more about that, the Ohio market in general. And I think folks are really, really gonna like this strategy. I know a lot of you have invested in Burt, in other markets, or have been researching Burr and you really like what you hear this is the market. I think that you should pay really, really close attention to our team is really strong there. Phil's team, really strong, very honest. They're quick, they're reliable. So if you've had a bad experience doing a burr elsewhere, I think you'll have a better experience with our team over here.    Keith Weinhold  40:35   We'd call it a sellout crowd, but you don't have to pay anything. We'd call it a standing room only crowd, but you don't have to stand up. You can sit down and enjoy it from the comfort of your own home this Thursday at 8pm eastern at GRE webinars.com. Thanks for coming on to the show. Naresh,    Naresh Vissa  40:51   thanks a lot, Keith.   Keith Weinhold  40:57   Yeah, strong insights from our own new race today, inflation expectations cut back and forth like a knife with big policy decisions on layoffs and tariffs and more tariffs on lumber and gypsum board. I mean, they are two of the major inputs that can increase the cost of homes. Gypsum board just means drywall tariffs, slow trade, less fuel is used to ship things like we touched on. And a lot of people ask, well, doesn't an economic slowdown mean lower prices, but yet don't tariffs raise prices? Well, you got to take on that from Naresh today. Now, sometimes I am asked, where is the real opportunity in today's real estate market? I've been a guest on other business shows lately, and I've been asked that question, where's the opportunity in today's real estate market? And I've got two answers. If you have more money and less time. Go with new build properties, because builders are still awarding you with massive rate buy downs, often to near a 5% mortgage rate. They are buying it down for you, but instead, if you have less money and more time, because you have to wait a few months for a rehab, then go with the burr strategy. That is the other opportunity. It's going to give you a higher return than new build in most cases, because what you get is in improbably high leverage along with strong cash flow. And those are two notions that typically don't go together. Well, on Thursday, we're bringing that to you with our live event. I mean, is there a more seasoned pro with the burr strategy in the entire nation than one co host for the event? Phil and then the mind spring of knowledge and ideas from Naresh as the other co host, and they're both active investors themselves, bringing you the opportunity in Cleveland in just a few days. And of the hundreds of registrants, not all of them attend live, but do attend live. If you can give yourself an advantage, you can be connected with available properties conducive to the burr strategy. If you're interested, or maybe you're just more interested in how it all works one last time it is GRE 's live event for Cleveland's amazing cash flow opportunities this coming Thursday, the 20th at 8pm Eastern, 5pm Pacific, healthy real world monthly rents that are more than 1% of the purchase price single family properties, many for under 100k in investor sweet spots. It's free to attend. It's from the comfort of your own home. Registration is still open at GRE webinars.com until next week. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.   Speaker 2  44:04   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host, is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC exclusively.   Keith Weinhold  44:28   You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info, oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access, and it's got paywalls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers, it's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours. Myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read, and when you start the letter, you also get my one hour fast real estate video. Course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream. Letter, it wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now. Just text GRE to 66866, while it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text GRE to 668666.   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, getricheducation.com.  

Get Rich Education
544: Stunningly High Returns with this Niche Real Estate Strategy

Get Rich Education

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 10, 2025 40:58


Register here for the live online event to learn about ‘Cleveland's Amazing Cash Flow Opportunities on Thursday, 3/20. Keith discusses the current state of the real estate market, highlighting that single-family rents have risen 41% since pre-pandemic times, while multi-family rents have increased by 26%. Single-family rents have been rising faster than prices for nine months, benefiting investors.  Austin, Texas, is an example of how increased supply can lower rents, as seen in their drop in rents after the city relaxed building regulations.  Real estate strategy expert, Phil, joins us and explains how this niche method can offer high leverage and cash flow. Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/544 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching:GREmarketplace.com/Coach Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai    Keith Weinhold  0:01   Welcome to GRE I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, build it and rents will fall. I discuss the direction of rents and prices. Then a real estate strategy for all time that can generate 8x leverage with investor cash flow and the exact city that could be the most advantageous for it today on get rich education.    since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show, guess who? Top Selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com   Corey Coates  1:13   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  1:29   Welcome to GRE from elizabeth new jersey to Elizabeth, Colorado and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, get rich education, founder, Forbes real estate council member, Best Selling Author and long time real estate investor, you are inside, get rich education. What's that all really mean? Ah, I'm just another slack jod and snaggletooth podcaster.nationally, rents for single family homes are growing faster than for multi family apartments. Okay, that you might have already known, because for a few years, we've been in this era where available single family rentals are scarce and apartments are closer to being adequately supplied across the nation. We're now at the point where median single family home rents are up 41% since those blissful and Halcyon pre pandemic days, and yet, multifam rents are up just 26% since that time. So it's 41 versus 26 and that's all according to a new report from Zillow. Now you probably listen to this show every week, so although that might be a helpful update, you probably don't find those facts surprising at all. But here's a more nascent trend that could surprise you. Every single month for the past nine months now, single family rents have risen faster than single family prices. Yeah, the John Burns home value index is up 3.3% annually, and the rent index shows that those rents are up 3.6% so 3.6 versus 3.3 really not a big gap there, but single family rents rising faster than prices for nine months. You know that's exactly what swings things into your favor as a real estate investor, it increases your ratio of rent income to purchase price. This has been happening because for someone that needs housing out there, paying rent has looked more affordable than buying a home. So then those things have to soon come back into balance. Now you remember that five months ago, I visited Austin, Texas, walked the streets and with all of the new building of apartment towers there, I called it America's oversupply, ground zero for apartments. Well, I'm not sure if you've noticed, but here, a few months later, major media sources are now reporting on the same thing that I was telling you about on the ground five months ago, and this is really insightful for real estate investors in a real world case study that will be on every intro to economics syllabus this fall, rents in Austin, Texas plunged. They fell 22% from their peak a couple years ago after the city accelerated permitting processes and scaled back the rules on building height, and this is exactly what created Austin's apartment supply surplus and therefore lower prices for renters. Bloomberg was the one recently reporting on this. So Austin's, if you build it, rents will fall mantra that created about 50,000 new units over just the past two years, a 14% increase. I mean, that is the biggest spike in supply of any US city. Over that time, just tons of cranes in the air. And by the way, the median asking rent in Austin, Texas is now $1,400 remarkably, though, that is down a full 400 bucks from the height of the pandemic. I mean, that is such an aberration That is so weird and rare. Yeah, Austin rents dropped from $1,800 down to $1,400 in in fact, that is so weird, and they've fallen so much that notoriously pricey Austin is no longer the most expensive city in Texas. It's now DFW. And you know, this is astounding on a few levels, because typically rents are even more stable than home prices. Gosh, but now to take off our investor hat for just a minute. Don't worry, we'll put it right back on. This is what society needs. I mean, how in the world are we the nation that put a man on the moon in 1969 yet we can't house our own people today. It's what I've discussed before. We need to build more. If you build it, rents will fall. If you build it, home, prices will become affordable. Again, we're not doing enough of that. Not enough places are following Austin's model. Up zoning, as I've told you before, up zoning. That's the name for allowing taller building heights. And you know what? That's something that both developers and environmentalists often like. Both types developers get what they want, and environmentalists know that housing and the economics of that are more efficient. There's less energy use in everything when we build up and we build apartments rather than single family homes, Austin relaxed regulations and they got it done. So congrats to them. I mean, that is a model for what we can do to address not only housing affordability, but the swelling homelessness problem like I enjoy talking about as well. So yeah, congrats, Austin, though you might have gotten too far ahead of your growth for the short term. America really needs the housing so thank you.    Now here's some ominous news for society and the economy. I wouldn't make too much of it yet, but the Atlanta Fed tracker has plunged. They're now forecasting a shrinking economy this quarter, minus one and a half percent. GDP is a projection which that gets us going down into recession territory, and part of the reason for that is this recent drag in consumption. But news like that can come and go, and we all know how frightfully just laughably bad recession predictions have been for years. We haven't had one in five years. So I want you to get the longer term lesson here, because things pop up like this over time. What usually happens to real estate in a recession? Because we know that there's going to be one. No one knows when. What happens is that unemployment rises. That is bad, home prices go up. Yes, home prices typically rise modestly in a recession. Just remember, since World War Two, home prices only fell significantly in one period, and it was a bad one in those years around 2008 what happens to interest rates? Interest rates of all kinds. In a recession, they fall. Interest rates fall. The Fed make sure that happens, and the reason for that is rates fall because the economy needs the help to review what you've learned so far today, single family rents are rising faster than apartment rents. Single Family rents are rising faster than single family home prices, although not by much. And Austin is proof that if you build it, prices will fall. And during recessions, residential real estate is a good place to be. Then let's say it's a widespread job loss recession as we pivot into the core content of today's show, you're probably quite familiar with the turnkey real estate investing model, where ideally on day one of your property ownership, your income property is either new or renovated. There's a tenant in it. It's under management, and you might even get a little trickle of tenant rent at the closing table. All right, but instead, what if you had six months of patience you own the property for those months through the renovation, and what's your reward for doing that? It is both high leverage and high cash. Flow, potentially, and usually those notions are antagonistic. High leverage means low cash flow and vice versa, but not with what we're talking about today, my expert guest and I discuss how you can have both the cash flow, which is like your spending money, and the leverage that constitutes your long term wealth growth, and he has bought, renovated and sold more than 2000 properties. And my guest and I go back more than 10 years before I go to break where you hear who sponsored the show this week, I have a trivia question for you, and you'll see what this has to do with our episode soon enough, Ohio has six cities with a population of 100,000 or more. Name them. Name those six Ohio cities. I'll give you your answer later. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get rich education.   You know what's crazy, your bank is getting rich off of you. The average savings account pays less than 1% it's like laughable. Meanwhile, if your money isn't making at least 4% you're losing to inflation. That's why I started putting my own money into the FFI liquidity fund. It's super simple. Your cash can pull in up to 8% returns, and it compounds. It's not some high risk gamble like digital or AI stock trading. It's pretty low risk because they've got a 10 plus year track record of paying investors on time in full every time. I mean, I wouldn't be talking about it if I wasn't invested myself. You can invest as little as 25k and you keep earning until you decide you want your money back, no weird lock ups or anything like that. So if you're like me and tired of your liquid funds just sitting there doing nothing, check it out. Text, family to 66866, to learn about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund, again. Text family to 66866,    hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine, at Ridge lending group NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation, because they specialize in income properties, they help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start Now while it's on your mind at Ridge lendinggroup.com, that's Ridge lendinggroup.com.    Richard Duncan  12:46   This is Richard Duncan, publisher and macro watch, listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.   Keith Weinhold  13:02   We were last graced with the presence of this week's guest about two and a half years ago. Since then, we had dinner together in Boston. He is a long time experience expert in the real estate BRRRR strategy will explain, and he knows just the exact few markets where the strategy really works and where it doesn't, and he explains how this can deeply accelerate your ROI and your portfolio growth and get this he's been a real estate investor since he bought his first rental property in 1978 he's been working the burst strategy and mentoring others on it since before there even was a burr acronym, brrr, he has mentored and coached more than 5000 investors. Oh, it's great, Phil, welcome back onto the show.   Phil Alexander  13:54   Keith. Thanks so much. It's such a pleasure to be here. It's always great to see you, and the time really flew from when we were able to break bread together in Boston, which is my hometown. And as I recall, we went to America's oldest restaurant, the union Oyster House, which was a fun experience   Keith Weinhold  14:14   right, where there are lobsters crawling all over the place. Yeah, that was a cool distinction to meet with you in America's oldest restaurant there in Boston. Pretty unforgettable. Phil, though you're from Boston, well, that's not really where the cash flowing numbers work so much you're an expert in the art of the BRRRR  the real estate, buy, rehab, rent, refinance and repeat strategy, and then we'll discuss the market that you say is number one in the USA for this so really high level, big picture. For those that don't know, what is the burr strategy? What makes it so compelling?   Phil Alexander  14:55   There are a lot of different ways Keith to discuss the burr. Strategy. It really is nothing more than a turnkey property. However, in the old days, I'll say, you know, I've been in the business for over two decades, we would sell turnkey properties, and a buyer or investor would come to us, and we'd show them a number of properties that were available. They'd pick one, we'd renovate it, and then they would have it inspected, and then we would correct against that ugly inspection report, and then they probably would be using leverage, so there'd be an appraisal, and then we'd put a qualified tenant in place. And after all that had happened, we would close on the property, and they'd be cash flowing from day one. There's nothing wrong with that approach and strategy. It's very conservative, but relative to the burst strategy, Keith The one big element that's missing in the classic turnkey model, there's no built in equity. And what the burst strategy does is it allows the investor to create value through that renovation, and it's nothing more really than a developer himself or herself does when they renovate the property to create value, and in doing so, you then wait a prescribed period of time, often called a seasoning period, and then you do a cash out refi to pull out that built in equity that you created yourself. And the idea then is to recycle that cash and buy into your next property.   Keith Weinhold  16:35   Why don't you give us a real example with some numbers?    Phil Alexander  16:40   Let's say you could find a place. Now, anybody in California is going to listen to this say this doesn't happen because you can't buy houses for this. But trust me, you can't. You buy a house for $60,000 you renovate it for $40,000 that means you have $100,000 invested in that property. However, you bought that house because you knew, once renovated, it was likely to be worth, let's say, conservatively, 120,000 and yet, when you go and do the cash out refi often at six months from the time you acquired the property in the first place, you're going to be able to pull out up to 75% of that appraised value. I'll do the math for you quickly. 75% of that $120,000 is $90,000 you only put 100,000 into the property in the first place. So at a glance, that suggests that you've gotten this property for $10,000 Well, to be fair, you do have closing costs. So let's say the closing costs and the finance fees on that cash out refi loan are about $5,000 so in essence, for $15,000 you now own a property worth 120,000 now an illustration of the value of this BRRRR strategy is if you were to go and buy that very same house, 420,000 renovated, tenanted, cash flowing, it would cost you 20% down, which would be $24,000 plus finance fees and closing costs would push it to or over $30,000 here's the bottom line. Would you rather get it so it's cash flowing from day one after closing, no built in equity and 30 or $32,000 out of pocket? Or would you rather get it where you only have 15,000 out of pocket? And I can do the math on that and tell you that you're more than doubling your cash on cash return with the BRRRR strategy   Keith Weinhold  19:07    yes, and you've also increased your leverage ratio in the example that you gave after waiting six months, much of which includes waiting for that rehab to take place, you have A 120k property. Like you said, you only have 10k into it. Maybe add five more K to that for closing costs and such. So you've got 15k into a 120k property. That is an eight to one leverage ratio,   Phil Alexander  19:33   exactly. And there are numerous other examples, typically speaking, Keith in good investor advantaged markets with the burst strategy. You can expect after leverage, after that, cash out refinance loan to be netted in the range of 200 to $250 per month cash flow. That's the rental property the. Less all of the direct expenses, less your monthly payment on the loan. Your net positive cash flow every month is between 202 150 in most good markets,   Keith Weinhold  20:13   that is really good on a single family home, because typically when you have a higher leverage ratio, when you're borrowing more, that really crunches your cash flow. But in this terrific example that you gave, it does not So Phil to help distinguish the burr strategy from an investor buying a turnkey property. To make that distinction, I think of the turnkey provider is really already doing the first three letters of the BRRRR acronym for you, because the turnkey company, they buy it, they rehab it, and they rent it before selling it to you. They're doing the first three for you here, when you hang around for all five letters of the acronym, you can be the beneficiary of what you just described.    Phil Alexander  20:58   Spot on, Keith, that's exactly right. The bottom line is, I think a game changer for our company of late is that we have found a market where you could earn two to three times the net positive cash flow on a monthly basis with the BRRRR strategy.    Keith Weinhold  21:19   Yes, we're going to get into just where that market is, the number one market in the USA for the burr strategy, in Phil's opinion. But Phil, I think before some people wrap their head around the BRRRR strategy, sometimes they consider the investor doing this themselves. What's intimidating about doing BRRRR by yourself is that first R in the burr strategy, the rehab, it seems like a nightmare, especially across state lines for an investor to find and retain and to manage contractors, but you have a system where this is all integrated.   Phil Alexander  21:57   exactly, you Know, Keith, I consider the two biggest pain points for an early investor is actually that first letter the B. You can buy properties anywhere, but the trick and the key is to buy a property that you know, with proper renovation of a rental standard, in fact, will be worth, generally, 20 to 30% more than your out of pocket cost. The second pain point is the construction component, finding a contractor, managing a contractor, keeping the contractor on the job and productive and not running away with your money.   Keith Weinhold  22:44   We make you lose faith in humanity. Yeah,   Phil Alexander  22:48   yeah. We don't really even need to go into detail more on that, but you're absolutely right, and what we do, which I think has made a significant difference, we have our own crews. We're able to have the projects managed. We have detailed scopes of work, for example, that detail line by line, item by item, the scope of work and the draw schedule to renovate a property and deliver it on time, on budget, without exception,   Keith Weinhold  23:21   tell us about the track record of the team in the contractors. I think most people's bad experience starts with day one, when the contractor shows up 45 minutes late with beer on their breath.   Phil Alexander  23:35   It could be, it could be, I am blessed. Currently, I'm active in three markets, although during my career, I've worked in 19 different markets around the country, not become fickle, but because markets do come and go. But I'm in Baltimore and Philadelphia and Cleveland right now, and the bottom line is that I have cruise boots on the ground in every market, and my one general contractor that oversees all three markets, he's been with me for over 15 years. As you mentioned earlier, I've been in the business for over two decades. We've just been doing this, like you said, since before there was an acronym to what we were doing. It's just a sensible thing to do. We know each other well. We get the scope of work done accordingly. That's something that we, with pride, say is a guaranteed number, which you don't often find in this business. Meaning if we have not gotten it right, if we have screwed it up, if we find something that we missed when we were, you know, reviewing the house and drawing together the scope of work, that's not the client's problem. That's our problem. If we say the rehab is 50,000 the rehab is 50,000 period there is no cost overrun.   Keith Weinhold  24:58   We don't want. Contractors smelling like Michelob Ultra we want contractors smelling like sawdust and WD 40. But Phil, you talked about the specific markets that you work in because they're burr advantage markets, Cleveland, Philadelphia and Baltimore. Tell us about the one that is number one in the nation right now, and why   Phil Alexander  25:21   Cleveland, Ohio. And it's not because my dad was from Cleveland. When we were kids, we all played I haven't met one person who hasn't on a seesaw, if you recall, you know, and now in your mind's eye, imagine the seesaw. One end is home prices and the other end is annual return. When the home prices are high, the returns are low. When the home prices are lower, the returns are higher. That's why, sadly, for virtually everybody on the West Coast, my hometown of Boston, New York, Washington, DC, South Florida. These are amongst, to put it bluntly, the worst markets in the country to try and cash flow positive. What makes Cleveland, however, especially unique. I'm oversimplifying, perhaps, but it is blessed to have both lower home prices than most markets, but very healthy real world rents, and that's a juxtaposition that causes extreme cash flows. I think at the current moment, I might have one property that doesn't cash flow 500 or more dollars per month, net positive cash flow, as we were discussing, 200 to 250 is normal for a good market, even in my other markets of Baltimore and Philadelphia. But you come to a market like Cleveland, and it's absolutely extraordinary. This is a perfect segue, if you'll allow me to the thing that makes us and me different. There's a billionaire car dealer by the name of herb chambers in Boston. In fact, he just sold, I understand his business for $1.58 billion massive car dealer. That's not important. What is important is his whole marketing mantra, Keith, is I don't sell you cars. I help you acquire your next vehicle. I don't just sell investors houses, Keith, I have taken an approach, and I've been doing this for a number of years, where I help investors achieve their goals. I have a very specific process, and I'd be happy to share, if you'll allow me, yeah, I first ask people about their war chest. To me, that's the amount of liquid capital they have to invest when they're ready to pull the trigger. It's not just cash in the bank. It can be equity in a home that they can pull out with a home equity line of credit, a HELOC, maybe they have a retirement account that they're able to borrow against. It's their money, after all, but that amount of cash is your war chest, and frankly, I'm not one of those people who says, You can buy real estate with no money, if you have maybe $30,000 or more, I can get you in the game. The second question I ask is, what's your goal? Because every one of us in this business has a goal. Every one of us, I don't need to know the specific goal. But whether it's to have your partner give up the nine to five job, or you want to give up the 90 to five job yourself, every goal has a cost. So what I seek to find out or learn is, what is your number in terms of a goal, how many 1000s of dollars of passive income every month are you looking to achieve? And then the last question is, time frame? Are you looking to achieve that goal in? What three years, five years, 10 years. And then, simply put, whatever the answers are, I show you how it's going to happen.   Keith Weinhold  29:18    See, these are the types of questions that your everyday realtor just doesn't ask you. I mean, Phil doesn't just sell you houses. He helps you achieve your stated goals for passive income. There's nothing wrong with an everyday realtor, but that's just not the lane that 98% of them are in. And what makes this burr strategy so compelling? I'm just doing calculations, not even on the back of a napkin, but in my head here, if you've got eight to one leverage, like we do in the example here, even if you have 3% annual appreciation on a property, that's a 24% return on the 15k of skin in the game that you have here. And then additionally, if you achieve $500 Dollars of monthly cash flow once your burr property is done, that's $6,000 a year divided by only 15k of skin in the game. That's a 40 or 40% cash on cash return in addition to the leverage depreciation that stepped up. And these are two of only five ways you're paid. This is why people love the burr strategy, if you've got the patience to wait six months,   Phil Alexander  30:25   here's the other thing too. A lot of people say, Is it possible to cash out earlier? And the answer actually is yes, but you have to be prepared to decide what's that worth to you. Meaning, if you wait six months, you can expect 75% of the appraised value. However, I have some lenders that I can introduce that will do a DSCR loan, debt service coverage ratio loan, which is against the cash flow capability of the house rather than the credit worthiness of the borrower, and they'll do it at three months, and yet it'll be at 65% perhaps of the appraised value, a lower loan to value or LTV. But still, it's a cool way to roll plain and simple.    Keith Weinhold  31:18   Yes, so Phil, here, he offers you total solutions. It's not just helping you with the Property selection, it's renovation by his license, then insured crews, introductions to the financing needs that you might have hash out, refinance introductions and that all important professional property management, unless you choose to manage the property yourself. And Phil, I want to ask you more about Cleveland and just the neighborhoods that you're selecting in a moment, but I've got great news here. You get to join Phil live. He and a GRE investment coach are co hosting Cleveland's amazing cash flow opportunity with the burr strategy, and you can join from the comfort of your own home. It is just 10 days from today, Thursday, March 20, at 8pm Eastern. Registration is open now at GRE webinars.com I suggest you register. We had hundreds of registrants for our last BRRRR event, which was last year. But Phil, tell us more about what you'll let us know on that webinar when it comes to Cleveland areas and neighborhoods.   Phil Alexander  32:26   Sure thing Keith, Cleveland's a pretty dynamic and interesting town. Of course, most people know it's the home of the rock and roll, Hall of Cleveland rocks and Exactly. And there are so many things about Cleveland that I think are really kind of cool to get to know. First of all, we talk or you mentioned appreciation, home price appreciation in Cleveland last year, 7% Yeah, crazy, absolutely crazy. The cost of living is well below the national average, it's at 6% below. Now here's the interesting thing, too, the rent to own ratio of people who rent versus own, very strong 59% rent. And of course, if you're a landlord, what does that mean? It means a greater opportunity to have qualified tenants in place with very low vacancy periods regardless. Now the average rent is $1,433 a month, which, again, when you're talking about properties, the average price of which, even with the renovation, is between 100 and 130,000 let's say 14 133 is even ahead of that cool little metric that we sometimes call the 1% rule, where the rent is at or above 1% of the value of The property. It's a small city only about 360,000 people the metro area, of course, a bit larger, at 1.7 million. And there are a number of top employers, and you know, the Cleveland Clinic, obviously well known Progressive Insurance. Love their ads. Sherwin Williams, you think about that the next time you want to go paint, but it's as to where we're investing principally we target Keith. What often are called C and C plus neighborhoods this week, yeah, often on the eastern, southeastern side of the downtown. Of course, to the north, you've got Lake Erie, so you don't want to get wet, so that you stay east, west or south. And yet, there are a number of places, maybe areas, if you're familiar with Cleveland, like Shaker Heights, Maple Heights, Brooklyn Heights, Cleveland. Heights, University Heights, all of these areas are considered suburbs with high taxes, uniquely so we tend to stay away from those, but in close proximity, we're all around them, and we benefit in terms of appreciation by being all around them, but not being in them, because you don't achieve any higher rent in those suburbs, but you do have the higher taxes, and in that respect, we're able to enjoy these outsized returns.    Keith Weinhold  35:37   This is a rare opportunity for you to meet Phil, someone with this wealth of experience. And of course, the benefit of showing up live, if you so choose, is you can ask a question yourself and have it answered. Phil, do you have any last thoughts overall with anything, whether that's the burr strategy or Cleveland itself, or anything else?   Phil Alexander  36:00    First of all, a lot of people ask me, Keith, you know, with rates mortgages and this and that, what do you think I heard? Maybe they're going to go down in the spring or the summer? Should I wait? The answer is no, the best time to invest is yesterday, and you will always be able, in a market like Cleveland, for example, to enjoy strong, positive cash flow. And you know something, as I said before, I've worked in 19 different markets. As soon as Cleveland stops being such a cash cow, I guess I'll have to move on and find the next great thing. But until then, I'm in Cleveland.    Keith Weinhold  36:40   It is supply demand. Our listeners know, as I've shared with them, that the Northeast in the Midwest are under built markets. So you have the opportunity to own an asset that everyone is going to want in the future. It ought to be great. Phil, it should be terrific 10 days from now. Thanks so much for coming on to the show.   Phil Alexander  37:01    It's my extreme pleasure, Keith, I have to say, in all the years that I've known you and known your listeners, they are easily amongst the best educated and most serious investors I have the pleasure to deal with. So it's always a pleasure to come back and thank you for having me.    Keith Weinhold  37:19   That's really kind. Thanks for saying that.   Yeah, excellent. BRRRR. Breakdown from Phil the consummate expert. In fact, when we had dinner at America's oldest restaurant, we sat just across from JFK, his favorite booth. He used to dine there. He was also a Bostonian. Of course, which six Ohio cities have a population of more than 100,000 people? They are Akron, Cincinnati, then, of course, the subject of today's show and our upcoming live event, Cleveland. Also Columbus, Dayton and Toledo of all 50 states, Ohio has tons of industry diversity. They had the nation's seventh largest population, and Ohio's population is slowly growing. A number of GRE buyers, just like you, have already connected with our investment coaching, so therefore you got the introduction to Phil and have already bought BRRRR through Phil, including in Cleveland, but he is sourcing more of them for this event. Phil and I looked at some Cleveland single family rental pro formas together that utilized the burr strategy that cash flow over $600 even two properties that cash flow over $700 but I would say those results are not typical. The ARVs after repair values have been pretty good. What Phil does is he runs comps of properties within a quarter mile before the appraisal. And you know, to give you a little behind the scenes. He bought the same software that lenders use to run valuation reports. So he has it himself. Phil has shown me proformas where you get cash back at closing, and therefore what that means are infinite returns. Though that's not an expectation that you should have, though it's nice when it happens, people are often buying two or three properties at a time. And to give you a little more, behind the scenes, Phil has his own in house wholesale unit for helping source these properties. And for every 100 properties, he buys two to five of them, Cleveland rocks. But even if you're more into rep, it's completely free to sign up for our webinar. You'll learn the nuances of what makes the burr strategy so lucrative, what makes Cleveland advantageous, and have any of your questions answered. It's coming up next week, already, March 20, at 8pm Eastern. I mean, this is the kind of event that can alter the trajectory of your entire investor life. Sign up is open. Save your spot now at GRE webinars.com that's GRE webinars.com until next week. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.   Speaker 1  40:20   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively. You   Keith Weinhold  40:48   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, getricheducation.com  

Get Rich Education
543: The Danger of Losing Your Job, How to Use AI for Real Estate

Get Rich Education

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 3, 2025 42:18


Register here for GRE's live online event to learn about ‘Cleveland's Amazing Cash Flow Opportunities' on Thursday, March 20th. Keith discusses the impact of recent federal job layoffs, emphasizing the importance of diversifying income sources. 40% of Americans experience job loss at least once in their careers, with men more affected. He advocates for real investing in real estate as a safety net. Seth Williams joins the conversation to discuss the use of AI in everyday life and real estate investing. Hear a practical example of how AI can help with real estate due diligence, such as reviewing municipal regulations and zoning rules. Resources: Check out Seth's resources, including the Pulse Inner Circle community, to learn more about practical applications of AI. Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/543 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching:GREmarketplace.com/Coach Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai    Keith Weinhold  0:01   Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, amidst 10s of 1000s of federal workers recently getting fired. It's not rare, because throughout their working career, layoffs hit 40% of Americans. How do you hedge yourself against the danger of losing your job? Then get a fascinating understanding of how you can use AI to improve your everyday life, and some applications for AI in real estate investing today on Get Rich Education.   Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads in 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com   Corey Coates  1:19   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  1:35   Welcome to GRE from Sunbury, Pennsylvania to Sun Valley, Idaho and across 488 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and I'm grateful to have you with me here for another week. This is get rich education. I'm known as the guy that back in 2015 was the first person to explain how real estate pays you five distinct ways at the same time when mass federal layoffs hit recently, you know you can learn something really important at a time like this. And no, it's not about the Washington, DC real estate market. That's not where I'm going here. That's not the bigger lesson, unless you're perhaps in the DC real estate market, it's shaping up to be 10s of 1000s of federal workers that are getting the boot as the result of the new administration in charge. We'll see where the number lands. But the thing is, is that federal jobs have long been deemed as the most secure, and yet more firings are coming. So if they're the most secure jobs, then what does that say about you and the safety of your job in both your near term future and your long term future, whether you're in the public sector or the private sector. I've worked in both sectors, and yeah, sadly, this is not such a rare occurrence. Many sources cite that roughly 40% of Americans get fired at least once during their working life. Job loss is more likely for a man than a woman, and it's happened to me. Yep, even I've taken that awkward and awful feeling box full of desk stuff, walk. The big lesson here is that you need to grow a second source of income, Experian and fed data. They cite that the average debt per consumer is about $39,000 worth of student loan debt, and another $24,000 worth of auto loan debt and another $6,500 worth of credit card debt. Well, those are not good debt types, like real estate debt is where you can outsource the debt to a tenants. Instead, you are the one that has to pay these type of debts, and that's why a lot of job losers are going to decline into a financial tailspin. They will default on their payments. They will become delinquent, they will descend into bankruptcy, and they will have a destroyed credit score, and the incidence of depression and suicide that even goes up for these people. Now, as we know, most of the so called financial advice out there that targets budgeting, how to cut your expenses. That's okay. You can do a little of that, but if you lose your job, a bundled cell phone plan in ditching your $7 latte is hardly going to help you. See, here's the thing that a lot of people fail around. Lies, even if you get a promotion and a raise at work, it still only pads a dangerous single source. It's still just a sole income source. Instead, what's powerful is, rather than budgeting, it is increasing your income, but it needs to be a source outside of your day job. That's how you get income diversification at the same time. I mean, you could take on a part time job or freelance work and accomplish that, but see the problem there is that you've lost your irreplenishable time. That's a one way street that time is never coming back. Don't live below your means. Grow your means. Owning an income property that can completely solve all of these problems, even a low cost income property of, say, $200,000 and Okay, a property like this, that might start with just 100 to $300 per month of residual cash flow, but that amount tends to rise even faster than inflation, because, as we know, your mortgage payment stays fixed. That's how that happens, and additionally, your 200k property at just 5% annual appreciation that grows to 255k in just five years. And if you only made a 20% down payment of 40k on this well, that property that grows to over 100k of equity in five years because you've got both the appreciation and the tenant made loan pay down. There is more to this. Besides increasing your monthly income, you can often take a chunk of this 100k plus equity with a cash out refinance that is a tax free windfall event, you heard that, right? Tax free, and you still get to hold on to the property. So a simple, low cost 200k property, just one of those, it increases your income now it gives you a second source of income, and it simultaneously gives you a leveraged windfall chunk that you can access in one nice, tax free cash lump. And one thing's for sure, you want to get a loan for income property and get that property now why you have your job? Because when you lose your job again, 40% of the time, no mortgage underwriter will qualify you when you're unemployed, relying on one income source that is kind of like playing Jenga on a wobbly legged table. So really, the bottom line here is that widespread federal job firings, they have really brought to light how many people are vulnerable with just one source of income. Why would anyone do that? Owning investment property solves the problem. Plant that second income seed now you can't have just one income stream that is too close to zero, that is precariously close to zero, and much of your life's thought pathways. They're about expectations, your expectations for the future, the way you think about your future, and if there's even a looming threat of losing your job in the future, you know that might not happen, but just the mere threat of losing your job that can induce stress. So that's why you want to do something about that, and I have a great resource to share with you shortly that me and the team here at GRE are going to help you with in you getting that vital income diversification a second source, but first Tax Day is next month. If you aren't getting an extension, you be pulling your tax documents together Trump tax changes are anticipated any time here, the highest federal income tax rate is expected to stay at 37% the standard deductions are moving up soon, indexed to inflation, $15,000 if you're single, $30,000 if you're married. Basically this means that things like your donation receipts. You know what? They are not worth saving and tracking unless they exceed those standard deduction amounts. And I like easy ways to remember things as you're pulling together documents for your tax preparer, if you are the tax preparer yourself, a w2 form shows. Income from your employer. A 1099 form shows income that's not from an employer, really. That's the distinction and an easy way to remember it. And to my point earlier about having more than just one vulnerable source of income, I hope that your 1099 income not from an employer, like the rents that your property manager collected for you that those 1090 nines are increasing faster than your w2 income, which is from an employer.    America's first car free neighborhood. I sent you more about that in our newsletter recently, and you said that you really liked learning about it. Yes, America's first car free neighborhood. It's had its share of detractors and skeptics and supporters since it broke ground in 2021 these are largely rental apartments in Tempe, Arizona, that is just the east of downtown Phoenix. Residents get around with light rail and E bikes. Studio apartments start around $1,300 a month, and three bedroom units around $2,700you can meet your neighbors more and get to know your community when everyone's not in their car and garage bubbles. So I found this really interesting. One resident of America's first car free neighborhood said We've probably made more connections here in six months than when we lived in the suburbs for 15 years. That was interesting to learn about in our newsletter.    Coming up on the second half of the show today, an expert guest and I are talking AI, think about all the time that this is going to save you. Think about all the brain damage that this is going to save you. Think about how much better informed you're going to be and how much smarter you'll feel. That's coming up shortly. Hey with what I mentioned earlier, I am announcing that coming up in just a couple weeks, here on March 20, it is our live online event for an amazing Cleveland cash flow opportunity. And why Cleveland now? Well, healthy, real world monthly rents are more than 1% of home prices. That is a lucrative ratio. And on top of this, we are layering the BRRRR strategy by rehab, rent, refinance and repeat, where cash flow averages more than $500 per door. This strategy, it allows you to put fewer dollars in the deal, and that's why it's really popular. Be sure to show up and learn more. Our last live online event was last year. It was for BRRRRs, and we had a record 538 registrants. We're going to examine single family properties in C and C plus neighborhoods. Those are the investor sweet spots here. And besides learning about real estate due diligence and the Cleveland market, there will also be a buying opportunity. Yes, the bur strategy allows you to invest with that low equity position, yes, both investor advantage areas, with the BRRRR strategy layered on top of it, it's the right opportunity for you if you need to build that second or third source of income. And besides all that, there's just the simple fact that amidst the well known national undersupply of housing. Entry Level homes, like these ones in Cleveland, they are even fewer. That entry level segment really has the scarce supply. I mean, you're going to own a scarce asset that everyone wants and needs. And this live event is one of course you can join from the comfort of your own home. It has two co hosts. You are going to be joined by one of our terrifically qualified GRE investment coaches and one of our top partners who has helped investors create wealth and grow their portfolios for over 20 years. I know him. I've had dinner with him. You can register now at GREwebinars.com Again, it is March 20. Our last one had 538 registrants. That was a record. Register while you can it is open now at GREwebinars.com more next. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to GRE   you know what's crazy. Your bank is getting rich off of you. The average savings account pays less than 1% it's like laughable. Meanwhile, if your money isn't making at least 4% you're losing to inflation. That's why I saw. Putting my own money into the FFI liquidity fund. It's super simple. Your cash can pull in up to 8% returns, and it compounds. It's not some high risk gamble like digital or AI stock trading. It's pretty low risk because they've got a 10 plus year track record of paying investors on time in full every time. I mean, I wouldn't be talking about it if I wasn't invested myself. You can invest as little as 25k and you keep earning until you decide you want your money back. No weird lockups or anything like that. So if you're like me and tired of your liquid funds just sitting there doing nothing. Check it out. Text family to 66866, to learn about freedom family investments, liquidity fund again. Text family to 66866    Hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine, at Ridge lending group NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start now while it's on your mind at Ridge lendinggroup.com that's Ridge lendinggroup.com   Blair Singer  16:35   this is Rich Dad, sales advisor, Blair Singer. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold. And above all, don't quit your Daydream.   Keith Weinhold  16:51   How do you really use AI? Can you believe if you have a question about anything in life, 90% of the time, it already makes more sense to ask chatgpt than a human being. That's what my longtime friend says. He's with us today, and he hosts the terrific R E tipster YouTube channel. Welcome into GRE Seth Williams,    Seth Williams  17:15   hey, Keith, great to be here. Thanks for having me. Seth, you've been interested in AI for years. Tell us how your perspective has evolved over time. A lot of people have pretty big variations in how much they use AI and how much they're even aware of it. Personally, I use it every day, like many, many times a day. Chatgpt is open almost all the time, and I use it for almost anything you can imagine, like when I have a question about almost anything, it makes more sense to ask chatgpt than it does to do a talk to a human, because I can get direct answers. It's armed with pretty much all the information that's publicly available on the world is an incredible resource. And when I talk to people and I ask them, like, Hey, do you use chatgpt? And they either say, What are you talking about, or they say, Yeah, I've used it once. It like, it just hurts me. You know, it's like, seriously, you have a superpower at your disposal here. You're not using it. It's kind of like what the internet was back in 1995 or something, where, like, some people kind of got it, but a lot of people didn't get it yet. It's pretty crazy when you can harness the power of not just chat GPT, but all of this AI stuff that's available now. Like, there's incredible, very powerful leveraging opportunity here.    Keith Weinhold  18:27   I use it about every other day. I bet after talking to you, it's gonna make me want to use it more. But, yeah, the guy that cuts my hair, he's only 25 years old. He doesn't seem very familiar with this. But like you said, it's a lot like Google in 1995 to maybe 1998 like, people just didn't automatically think of Googling something. And it's beginning to get that way, I think with using an AI like chatgpt to answer your questions, why don't you tell us about some of the biggest misconceptions that people have about AI?    Seth Williams  18:54   Well, that's good question. I guess it kind of depends on where they're coming from and what they are even aware of in terms of what is capable of. But I know one thing I hear from time to time is people will say, Well, I'm not a content creator, so I don't really have a use for that, like it makes sense if you're like a blogger or a podcaster. And I guess the good thing is that they at least have some awareness of what it can be used for. But things like chatgpt can be used by pretty much anybody who knows how to type on a computer or even speak to their phone, the chatgpt mobile app, for example, I just love this thing you do have to be a paying Plus member, which is 20 bucks a month. That is a laughably inexpensive price for everything that chatgpt could do for you, especially a mobile app. I can turn this thing on. I can use it as a camera to point to anything and have it give me insights and instructions on how to deal with this thing, whether it's a plumbing problem. I was just using it this morning. I had my phone set up on a tripod on my desk, pointed at Zapier trying to figure out how to make two complex softwares work together, and I just had to speak to it in real time. Time and ask it, this is what I'm trying to do. How do I do this? I don't get it, and it explained exactly what to do. And this was help that I could have paid a consultant money for, but it just came from this app, and all has to do is just look at my screen and it understands all of it. It sees things that I don't see. I know people that use chatgpt as the therapist. I've never done that, but I've know a whole lot of people that do that kind of thing. Yeah, and it gives them legitimate, useful feedback, and it's available 24/7, and it doesn't cost 100 plus dollars per session to talk to them.   Keith Weinhold  20:32   You the listener right now are thinking about all the jobs that this is displacing, surely, but why don't we pull back and think about no Seth. If someone is completely new to AI, what's the first thing that they should try to use it for?   Seth Williams  20:46    If you are a real estate person? Specifically, I don't know if everybody listening to this is necessarily, but as a real estate investor, the first thing I ever used it for was writing property descriptions for me, like when I had a property I was trying to sell. I know there's a great way to explain this thing, but I don't really know how to do it in my own head. Yeah. And you can just feed it basic information about the property and say, Hey, write me a beautiful, compelling property description that will make these things sellable and make people you know, respond with interest and that kind of thing. And just do that, and you'll see what I'm talking about it. It's an incredible writer. It does a great job. What's your question about where do they start with chat GPT? Is that what you're asking? Yeah, if one isn't familiar with it, where should they start? Well, another thing you could do daily use type thing. So something that I've used chat GPT for, I've taken a picture of my closet in the different clothes I have to wear, and I send it to chat gpati and say, Hey, what should I wear today? Like, what different articles of clothing would you recommend that I pair together? You could do this with your cupboard. Say, Hey, here's what I have in my cupboard. Tell me what I can make with this and then give me the recipe to make it. You could do this at the drug store. You'd go take a picture of the shelf and say, Hey, I have a splitting headache. Show me what on this shelf will solve my problem right now and get rid of my headache. I've actually got this problem worse than most people, where I can be looking right at the solution, and I don't see it like it's right there in front of me, but I miss it. But chatgpt doesn't miss anything like, if it's in the picture, or even in the the live vision camera, it's like a live video feed that you can point at anything. Like it will see it, and it will point out stuff that you very likely are missing.   Keith Weinhold  22:24   That's amazing. I haven't used its image capability that way yet, and really that brings up Seth. There are so many AI tools available, like an explosion these past couple years. How is a person supposed to decide which ones are worth using and which ones are not.   Speaker 1  22:41    It's very true, there's a lot of stuff out there. It can be a little overwhelming. I can tell you, I've used chatgpt, I've used Claude, I've used Gemini, I've used grok, bunch of different AI chat bots out there. They can all do some pretty amazing things, but if you just don't know where to start, like I'll see if I can only have one of them, chatgpt is what I would go to. I think part of that is just a level of familiarity, like I've just used it for so long now. It's like a comfortable old shoe, but it really is innovating at an incredible speed, and it's this AI boom has been happening for over two years now, and chatgpt is still arguably at the top. I mean, they've done a really good job of staying on the bleeding edge of what can be done now, and chatgpt is free, but if you pay for the $20 a month version of it, you just unlocks a lot more capability and usability. That's probably what I would do. But there's different Claude. I've seen this myself, and I've heard this from a lot of other people. If you're trying to, like, write a story, for example, Claude is actually a better writer than most things out there. So that's what you're trying to do. Like, go with quad you want, like, a one, all purpose tool that can do pretty much everything reasonably well. That's what chat GPT is, in my opinion,   Keith Weinhold  23:52   those are some great tips. And yeah, I thought it was pretty impactful last year, when even when you do a Google search, at the top of that, there is now an AI summary before you see your conventional Google Search sort of hits, which actually concerned Google advertisers for a little while. How about some of the most driest and esoteric reading that we can think of, and how AI can speed that up and make it more interesting, just say, doing due diligence in real estate, like reviewing municipal regulations or zoning rules and property restrictions. How does AI help you there?   Speaker 1  24:27    I've used it numerous times for that, perfect for that. For example, in the land business, one way that you can make money from land is by subdividing land. And one strategy within the subdividing business is to find properties that are they're called exempt subdivides, which means that you can essentially do the subdivide and not get anybody's permission to do it, like you can just split it up and not ask anyone. And you can do it, but you can only do that if the size of the property is over a certain threshold. In Texas, I think it's 10.01 acres or. Higher. There's certain places Michigan that are similar, but you can figure this out by looking at the county and the municipal guidelines to understand what is that threshold, or does that threshold exist at all? You can find these PDFs from the county or the municipal website. Upload it to something like chatgpt or Claude, and just ask the question like, how big does a property have to be before it's exempt from the subdivision rules? And it'll tell you, if it's in there, it can redo the thing in a matter of seconds and tell you what the answer is and where it found the answer, a very similar thing with like legalese and legal writing that's really hard for the average person to understand, probably by design, it can decode that for you. I've gotten this before. I've gotten really poorly written emails from people like electricians, or even just, I can't believe there's already happened exactly. They explain things using a lot of industry jargon and lingo, and I don't know what they're talking about, right? And I can copy and paste that email into chatgpt and just say, Hey, I got this email from an electrician. I have no idea what this means. Can you explain this to me? Like I'm a five year old, and it does it, and it works every time where it's like, oh, okay, that's what you meant. I can just know that instead of having to respond to them and say, Hey, can you rewrite that for me? I don't understand it, and they reply, and it's bad again. And it goes back to this a lot of questions that a lot of us have every single day. Historically, we've gone to people to ask those questions, and that's fine, but it wastes their time, and it wastes our time, and we still might not get the answers we're looking for, but with things like chatgpt, like you almost certainly will get the answer you're looking for very quickly, and it doesn't waste anybody's time other than the time you have to spend asking the question. So it's a big 8020, lever, you can get a lot more done without relying on the limits of humans to get the job done.    Keith Weinhold  26:50   We're talking about how you can use AI in your overall life and in real estate a little bit too. With Seth Williams, well, you're such a good resource. You're really pretty pioneering in learning AI and helping you with problems and solutions in both your overall life and in real estate investing. So tell us by now, what are some of the most unexpected or just like, totally impressive things that AI has helped you with, and how do you do that stuff?   Seth Williams  27:17   That's a really long list, but the thing that I have been most impressed with as of late is something that both chatgpt and Google Gemini can both do this now, kind of in different ways, but they can look at your computer screen and help you figure out all kinds of complex problems. Talked about this a little bit in part one, but earlier this morning, I had my chat GPT mobile app right here on my phone. I had it on a tripod pointed at my screen, and it was walking me through how to set up a couple new zaps on Zapier using a web hooks, which just right there I probably lost most people. It's just a confusing thing to figure out. I still don't fully understand it, but I was explaining my problem and what I was trying to do, and I could just talk for as long as I want, until I'm done talking. And then chatgpt chimed in, and in about 30 seconds, it solved my problem and told me exactly what to do. And Google has another way of doing this, where it's actually like on your computer, like seeing your entire screen, and it kind of does the same thing where a voice talks back to you. It's amazing, because I know how hard some of these things can be, the type of thing that would either make me give up and just not do what I'm trying to do, or pay somebody a bunch of money to come in fix the problem for me, or stand over my shoulder, either which way is not a great outcome. But with the help of these AI chat bots that can see everything going on, and they have basically all the knowledge in the world about how to solve the problem. They can do it really quickly and easily. And it's amazing. That's one of millions of different things you can do with chatgpt.   Keith Weinhold  28:51    Oh dear. If AI looked at my computer screen, the first thing they would probably tell me is to close half of the tabs that I have open. Oh, yeah, me too, yeah. How are you personally using AI in your real estate investing business today?   Seth Williams  29:07   lots of ways, but one thing that has been particularly useful to me is the use of what's called Custom gpts, which basically just means, right, you are training chat GP T to respond to you in a very specific way based on certain instructions you give it. So every time you start a conversation like it already knows why you're there, what you're looking for, what assumptions you want it to make. One example of a custom GPT I've made is one that can very quickly analyze big commercial projects like whether it's a self storage facility or industrial outdoor storage, I've explained to it how I want it to run the numbers based on certain information. I give it like square footage and pricing and occupancy rates and that kind of thing. So I can basically feed it like six or seven key pieces of information and 20 seconds it can tell. A give me, like a one to 10 rating based on this is a great deal, you should move forward, or this is a terrible deal. Look the other way. And the reason this is a big deal is because the way I used to handle this was I had a giant spreadsheet, and I would go line by line, filling in all these different inputs, and it would take me, at a minimum, like 30 to 45 minutes to get to the same place of understanding, like, Yes, this is good. I should keep going on this. Or no, this is a terrible deal. And it can just, like, look at a lot of stuff, a lot of data, very quickly. And it's not like the final answer necessarily, like, you don't just blindly follow whatever it tells you to do, but it can just get to the bottom of stuff, or, I guess, get further to the bottom of stuff, wasting a whole lot less time. So, you know, the real estate that's super helpful, and people in, like, banking and accounting and all this stuff fields where, like, there are full time analysts that look at this stuff all day long. And it naturally takes humans a lot of time to figure this stuff out, but AI can get there much faster.   Keith Weinhold  31:03   Yeah, that is pretty remarkable, and it sounds like you're finding a pretty high degree of reliability and not getting what we call hallucinations in the AI world.    Seth Williams  31:15   Yeah, that is sort of a developing thing. So hallucinations, it's definitely a real issue where basically we'll just make up stuff that sounds viable, but it's not right, and the only way you would really know that is if you knew better in the first place, which means, why am I even asking the question if I already know the answer? So it was kind of an issue where chatgpt and Claude and Gemini would just make stuff up. One of the ideas with some of the newer models that are coming out with, like, oh one or oh three mini now is what they've got. They use a lot more logic in these models. And the difference is, when you ask it one of these questions, and if it doesn't know the answer, it'll just say, I don't know. That's a great answer. They're hallucinating. Yeah, absolutely. And you know, chatgpt Four, oh, it's kind of like the difference between if you hire a very polite VA in on the other side of the world who's trained to be a yes man or a yes woman, like they want to make you happy, and they're going to tell you what you want to hear, whether it's right or not, whereas, you know, these more advanced logical models are more like your account or it's like, I'm not here to impress you. I'm just going to tell you the facts and how things really are, I think, depending on what you're trying to do, like, there are certain situations where you'd want the more creative four, oh, version of the situations where you'd want the logical ones. So I'm trying to, like, do code or analyze numbers or do something where accuracy is very important. That's where I want to use those logical models. But if I'm like, writing a story or song lyrics or whatever, and creativity is more important, that's what I'd want to do four Oh, so it's not that either one is like better or worse. It just depends on what you're trying to accomplish and what output you want from it.   Keith Weinhold  32:54   Sure, part of this is knowing which tool to apply. There might be a grain of gratefulness, that there are such thing as hallucinations, right? I mean, it still takes you a human being thinking to confirm, does that answer make sense and it's just simply a good idea? Or could that be inaccurate? So the human component sounds like isn't completely displaced yet at this point, starting probably more than 10 years ago, Seth, when people began to look for answers to everyday questions, oftentimes, they would go to YouTube and they would just like to get their answer that way. Why is this faucet leaking or anything else? And watch a YouTube video about that. What's your process though for using AI to take a YouTube video and summarizing it and extracting key insights that way?   Seth Williams  33:39   Well, there is a free chrome extension called glasp, G, L, A, S, P, that I just used it this morning. All the time. I've heard of it. It kind of sits on top of YouTube. So when you're on YouTube and you have this chrome extension there, this little button appears, and you can copy a transcript of the entire video and then take that and paste it into chat, G, P, T, and you can ask it whatever you want about what that video is about. You could say, summarize it in one sentence. Or you could say, Does this video talk about this issue? And if so, where or what does it say about it? You could say, take this video and turn it into a blog post for me, literally, like, whatever you can imagine that could violate come from that video. You could get that information from it. And that alone is is amazing. And it kind of goes back to, like, what is the purpose of this video, or what is my question that I'm trying to get answered? Am I looking for entertainment? You know, for example, I've been watching a lot of videos about guitars and guitar pedals and amps lately. I want to hear what this guitar sounds like. I kind of have to watch a video for that. Like, a transcripts, not really going to help me chat. GPT is not going to help me. Like, I just actually have to watch the video. So this doesn't totally render videos useless. It just depends on why you're watching it and what information you want to get, and how can you get there faster.   Keith Weinhold  34:50   This has been great. Seth, are there any last things that we should know about? Ai, whether that's misconceptions or making sure that we're using the right. AI tools and avoiding the wrong ones. Any last thoughts? Seth, if   Seth Williams  35:04   people are really interested in this stuff, I mean, there's plenty of places you can go online. This is a huge trending topic on YouTube, lots of good information out there. We actually put together a school community intended primarily for real estate investors and business people. It's you can find that at Pulse inner circle.com, P, U, L, S, E, inner circle.com. We're talking about this stuff all the time. My friend Mike balcom and I did a couple different courses on this stuff, like a guided course that was awesome. I mean, we even learned a lot of stuff going through the process. But it is a rapidly advancing area right now, and it has been ever since chatgpt came out, like, every week, there's some huge new thing out there. It's something that's worth paying attention to, because even, like, right now, it's incredible the stuff you can do. And interestingly, like, most people aren't doing it. So if you are up to speed and educated on it, you've got a superpower that most of the people don't know exists or aren't willing to learn.   Keith Weinhold  36:01   That's a great point. If you just learn 1% of this, you're going to be ahead of the general population, and it's really easy to do. Seth, I've done some learning about AI myself. This has been a great chat. Thanks.    Seth Williams  36:14   You bet.   Keith Weinhold  36:21   Check out Seth's resources and his own R E tipster podcast. Always love to chat with my man, Seth Williams, Super Down to Earth guy, and also he does not look like a dork like you might think an AI expert would. Yeah, like I told Seth, the guy that cuts my hair is 25 years old. He's a SoundCloud music artist. He mentioned to me about how he writes his own lyrics for his music. I asked him how the results were when he asked chatgpt to write his lyrics or write him some rhymes, he told me he never even thought of that. I couldn't believe it. So yeah, AI, it's just still not top of mind for people.    The two platforms that I use the most are chatgpt and venice.ai last year I told you about how you can turn any document into an AI podcast with notebook LM, and you'll remember that I also played a minute or two of that AI generated podcast right here on the show for you, you can book your travel with AI as well. Have it put together in itinerary for you. Have you asked AI who you are? I hope that you've tried that by now. When I go to chat GPT and ask it, who is Keith Weinhold, let's see, is it accurate? Well, the answer starts with Keith Weinhold, is a real estate investor, author and the host of the get rich education podcast. Well, then it goes on for a few paragraphs. It goes on to say he founded get rich education, a platform that offers educational content through podcasts, blogs and resources about real estate investing, personal finance and wealth building. His teachings emphasize the benefits of leveraging real estate as a long term wealth building tool while highlighting strategies to maximize cash flow and minimize risks. Okay, yeah, I would say that's accurate. No hallucination there. You can also ask chat, GPT or an AI, of course, about your properties. In fact, I'm going to enter the address of one of my rental properties and ask it how much cash flow it generates. So to skim the answer for you, it's okay. It looks pretty accurate. Here. It says that it is a three bedroom, two bathroom, single family home with 1300 44 square feet of living space. It shows the property was last listed for rent at $1,625 per month in March of 2024 Yep, that sounds right. Zillows rent, Zestimate estimate estimates the current rental value at $1,898 per month, is what it says. Okay, and then here's what it says about the property's cash flow. Because I asked that about the cash flow, it writes to determine the potential rental cash flow, consider the estimated monthly rental income of 1898 subtract operating expenses such as property management fees, maintenance insurance, property taxes and any mortgage payments, the resulting figure will represent the net monthly cash flow. All right, well, then it goes on with more info that's less interesting, okay, so therefore, at least this basic question that I've asked it chat GPT, I mean, it cannot know my cash flow unless they know what my loan amount was and what the mortgage interest rate is and those sorts of things. But maybe another AI knows that, though I am not sure.    Hey, coming up here on future episodes of the get rich education podcast, some well known names that haven't been here on the show. Before and another interesting upcoming episode down the road. Here is when a pastor is going to join me on the show. Here, this pastor is an expert in what the Bible says about money. You might be familiar with the Bible verse that says it is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for a rich man to enter the kingdom of God, gosh. Well, how does that make me feel about how the pastor and I's conversation is gonna go here on a show that's called get rich education that ought to be super interesting, and I really look forward to that show. Now, even if you're not a Christian or you don't believe in the Bible, this is going to be a significant conversation, because you cannot deny the Bible's influence. It is, in fact, the greatest selling book of all time, and even if it doesn't personally affect you, it does impact other investors around you and just billions of people across the world. What the Bible says about money coming up, which could have, I guess, some uncomfortable moments here in future weeks on the show, along with a lot of other great content. If you want to be sure that you don't miss that on your pod catching app, be sure to hit the Follow button. Also, if you would please, simply tell a friend about the show until next week. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.   Speaker 2  41:41   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively.   Keith Weinhold  42:09   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, getricheducation.com      

Get Rich Education
542: A Home Loan Where No Monthly Payments are Required

Get Rich Education

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 24, 2025 46:08


Keith Weinhold and Caeli Ridge discuss the benefits of a type of loan that combines mortgage and banking features. This loan allows deposits to reduce principal first, every deposit acts like a payment, minimizing interest accrual. And can be used for cash-out refinancing, providing flexibility and potential tax benefits.  Hear about the importance and the difference between open-ended and closed-ended loans. If you pay down the loan balance over time, you can have a spread that allows you to access that equity without having to requalify or pay additional closing costs. Resources: Explore the loan simulator at RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/542 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching:GREmarketplace.com/Coach Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai    Keith Weinhold  0:01   Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold a discussion about the future mortgage rate direction. Then there's a property loan type where you don't have to make any monthly payments, and if you do make a payment, it all goes toward principal, and nothing is lost to interest. It can save you lots in interest expense over the life of the loan today on get rich education.   since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads in 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com   Corey Coates  1:13   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  1:29   Welcome to GRE from flaccid County, Oregon to Lackawanna County, Pennsylvania and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are back in for another wealth building week here at get rich education, just another shaved mammal with the microphone here, I have a real estate analogy for you. Growing up, my dad told me, whatever you do, do it well. And that was broad guidance for life. I like things that are easy to remember. Our simple home in Appalachian Pennsylvania was headed with a wood fired stove, so we couldn't just turn a dial and feeding the stove with those logs took time and work. It was a family effort. Dad split the firewood. My chore was to regularly move firewood from the wood pile into the home, and then Mom or Dad would start the fire and constantly tend to it and get it up to the right temperature. But you know, when that fire finally roared, it felt like it could have heated five homes. And this is like buying an income producing rental property. You can't just point and click to make income reliably appear. It takes time, and even some of this admin type of work before you feel hot returned the spark that can ignite the fire means first putting your financial house in order. Those are things like getting pre approved for a mortgage loan, and then they're stacking the firewood, which means finding a deal, making an offer, booking a property inspection, scheduling an appraisal, perhaps signing a property management agreement if you're not self managing, and then, of course, placing a tenant. But see when that investment property fire roars after a year or two that can create enough returns for five retail investors, just like our roaring wood fire could have heated five homes, even though you're only one investor getting like 5x returns, and by now, you probably felt, after a year or two of owning it, the profitable warmth of the five ways you're paid that you know so well. Those five ways are leverage, appreciation, cash flow. Tenant made principal pay down a tax benefit basket and the quiet, whispering fire of inflation, profiting on your loan, but you can't get over leveraged, meaning that you can't make the payments, or else you burn the whole house down. This means embracing the right level of debt rather than avoiding debt altogether. So yeah, you know, if you want to be in the top 1% or maybe even top 5% Do you know what that means? It means being misunderstood by the masses. And when you do this right, it's not about getting rich quick, but it's about building wealth. For sure, feel the fire and whatever you do, do it well, just like my dad told me, and oh, by the way, today, my parents still live in that same. House, but they now just turn a dial for heat.    Well, you know, there's been a lot of real estate and financial news lately, just this constant feed of news. And I really need to tell you something about that. I am not a news reporter. If some news just broke an hour ago. A lot of times people are only overreacting to something like that. So here at GRE I infuse the news longer term into our content of the show, because some of it is just too big to ignore. But often let it settle down for a little while and filter out what it really means to you as an investor. I mean, being an educational platform rather than a news platform is what it's about. So I want to make sure you understand the relationships rather than just reporting the news. I mean, for example, what tariffs can do to home prices and rents and inflation. I mean, that really impacts you and your real estate long term. Rather than just doing something like reporting that the tariff on this nation that looked like it was going to be 25% is now only going to be 10% or something like that, that really doesn't affect you so much. So now that you know more about what to expect here, which are the stories that really affect you as an investor? The last inflation report did come in at a hot 3% that startled economists that it was that high. And what that does is that makes bond yields rise, because bond investors need a real return net of inflation, and in turn, that soon makes mortgage rates rise, and also it makes Jerome Powell be in no rush to cut his Fed funds rate after this hot inflation report, either. And here's another long term relationship that can help you learn the Fed's dual mandate is, what do you know? What it is, the two things I've mentioned it to you before, the Fed's dual mandate is maximum employment and stable prices. That right there is inherently volatile, because when employment is maximized, well then employers, they have to compete with higher wages in order to attract workers, and that makes prices go up, destabilizing the prices will stable. Prices is the second part of the dual mandate. So that's why it always seems like there's this lightning rod attention on Jay Powell in the Fed. It is because the dual mandate is inherently volatile. Now, you know what I think about predicting mortgage rates. I don't like to do it because it's an almost impossible task, like the myth of Sisyphus, that Greek myth about rolling a boulder up a hill wells, Fargo says mortgage rates will go down to just six and a half percent by the end of this year, so not much of a drop. And also by the end of next year, almost two years from now, they'll still be just six and a half percent. And other C rates rising from here. So there is broad consensus that there's zero reason to think that artificially low rates are going to return anytime in the near term, perhaps even in the intermediate term, coming up on a future episode of the show here and soon, how to use AI in real estate investing today, let's talk about mortgages and a special loan type.   Today, we are back with the national leader in providing Americans with income property loans. She runs the operation at Ridge lending group. She's been doing this 25 years she's an investor herself. It is their CEO and president, Caeli Ridge,   Caeli Ridge  9:06   Keith, thank you for having me.    Keith Weinhold  9:08   There does seem to be one US president. That makes a lot of news lately, but Caeli is still the most noteworthy mortgage type of President, I suppose. And just like GRE Ridge focuses on education and Caeli mortgage rates. It's the topic that everyone wants to talk about. I don't predict mortgage rates, but I know that you'll Talk That Talk a little. And previously, many expected Jerome Powell and the Fed to drop the rate four times this year, then two and now more and more expect zero rate cuts at all this year, even opening the door for rate increases if inflation persists. So tell us about the propensities of this year's mortgage rate direction.    Caeli Ridge  9:51   I think that I agree with a lot of the volume out there related to interest rates kind of stay in the course. I don't think we're going to see too much of a decline. There's. Certainly, Keith, we talk about this at nauseum. There's all kinds of things that could derail that statement that we can't prepare for, we couldn't predict for, but I think overall rates are going to stay steady. I think that whether you like them or you don't like them, the tariffs tend to come with an inflationary tone. And if that's the case, it's going to put Jerome and his buddies at the Fed in a tough position to do what they had hoped to do with the easing, the monetary easing. So I don't expect to see it, but I'm hopeful who knows. Who knows?    Keith Weinhold  10:29   Now, for you, the listener and viewer here, when you really want to know what moves rates around, Caeli talk to us about this persistently high spread, and what that means is that historic difference between mortgage rates and the yield on the 10 year treasury note.    Caeli Ridge  10:47   I feel like a lot of what that's going to attach itself to is the inflation, and then, more specifically, when we talk about llpas, and I think we've talked about this in the past, loan level price adjustments, mortgage backed securities secondary market, right? This is an investment that is bought and sold on the New York Stock Exchange, right? These are investments that carry value. And while the Treasury is usually the one that people will look at to predict where interest rates are going to go, I feel like in this higher rate environment, the secondary market understands that these mortgage backed securities are going to be paying off in advance of profitability. Now this gets a little bit complicated, but the easy way to explain it is is that if you secure a loan today at, say, seven and a half percent, if the anticipation is that interest rates over the next three years, maybe not in the next year, but two years, even three years, are going to decline. The mortgage that was closed today will likely pay off via a refinance. In that event, it's not reached the maturity date, such that when that initial mortgage backed security was purchased on the secondary market, it will have to pay off before the investor has been made whole or profitable. As a result, the margins it's called on in my world, it's called YSP, yield spread premium will not be met. So they're baking in certain levers, or they're hedging, as another way to say it, so that they're not left with those negative balances when these things do pay off when interest rates come down, because interest rates are not a straight line, they go up, they go down, they go east, they go west. So as a result, they're planning far in advance into the future. So I think that has a lot to do with it.    Keith Weinhold  12:33   Real Estate industries are shrinking, and it's all related to the fact that back in 2021 the number of existing homes sold peaked at almost 7 million, but last year, it was only about 4 million. That is a huge drawdown. The number of US Realtors is dropping since it peaked in 2023 and Caeli, from what I can see, the number of loan officers, even operating has dropped precipitously over the last four years, it's a reminder that the strong survive and in the mortgage industry, top service is what savvy borrowers need. You go with the people that consistently advise you to take your time and look at your long term strategy and make the correct decision, not always the one giving like 1/8 of a percent lower and an interest rate, so any lender can get you the next loan, and few are going to help you with your long term strategy. With this overall lower volume of transactions taking place, what are your thoughts about how it's impacted the mortgage and lending industries?    Caeli Ridge  13:37   It's such a good question. I'm glad that you asked it, and I really do think it speaks to the experts in the space consumers, our borrowers, as we call them, have to be, I believe, a little bit more discerning about who they want to align themselves with and who they want to work with as it relates to the interest rate. We've had this conversation off book. Ridge doesn't sell rate or cost. Now we're competitive, but we're never going to be the lowest possible lender out there. There's always going to be somebody that can undercut for an eighth, like you said, a quarter point, a few 100 bucks here and there. And we just don't get into that, our value adds far exceed an eighth of a point in rate, which, by the way, you probably can predict what I'm going to say next, if you're not doing the math, just as a sidebar listener, the difference in payment, and that's really where the focus should be. The difference in payment on an eighth or a quarter percent in interest rate on $100,000 is all of 5,7,8, bucks a month. Okay, so make sure you're doing the math, but the value adds that come with the education that we provide the 49 states, large footprint and the diversity of loan product, I think, far outweigh any eighth or few $100 difference when you're comparing side by side. I'm not saying that you don't want to get comparisons and you don't want to be a smart, informed consumer, but it really does matter that your lender understands known, owner occupied understands how to. Or take you from point A to point Z today and five and 10 years down the road.   Keith Weinhold  15:05   you've been a mortgage industry leader for a long time with this lower volume. Have you seen mortgage companies implode close shop?   Caeli Ridge  15:15   Absolutely, we have access to those data points and the number of loan officers just the individual in the doing the transaction, not including processors and underwriters and funders and doctors, but just the loan officers. I believe, in 2024 reduced by a margin of 53% gosh, yeah, that's a big number.   Keith Weinhold  15:35   Yes, this is really hit the industry substantially. Are there any other interesting industry trends in this environment where we have persistently higher rates, I make sure not to say high, because historically, mortgage rates are still not high. The long term average being seven and three quarter percent on the 30 year fixed rate mortgage Are there any other trends that this loss in activity has created?   Caeli Ridge  15:58   I feel like the informed investor is still finding ways to profit in real estate. They're finding diversity is key, which I'm a big proponent of as are you. That means single family residence to two to four units, cash flow versus appreciation, the short term rental, the long term rental, the midterm rental, making sure that they have a good, rounded portfolio is key. And there are some which I think we're going to be talking about today. There are some mortgage tools that I really feel like, for an informed investor, are allowing them to continue and propel further, even scale into the 25 and 26 years.   Keith Weinhold  16:36   What's happened to the volume of owner occupied transactions versus investor transactions. I would imagine that investor mortgage transactions really aren't down that much.   Caeli Ridge  16:47   not that much. I'd say there was a small blip, but I feel like we've made those up with some of the burr strategy loans we do, of course, all kinds of mortgage related transactions specifically for investors. And one of those products is a short term bridge loan, which would apply to the BRRRR method by rehab, rent and refinance. So we've been seeing quite a bit of that, where the investor will find a good deal on market or off market, where they can put a little bit of lipstick on it and then refinance it at the ARV or after repair value. So anything that we might have lost in just a traditional 30 year fixed straight purchase transactions, I feel like we made up in the other but it wasn't a big margin.   Keith Weinhold  17:26   What if there was a mortgage product out there that just didn't work like other mortgage loan products do? For example, your deposits or the payments that you make on this special type of mortgage is applied to the principal first and only. There are a lot of other interesting characteristics about this particular mortgage product. We're going to discuss that when we come back. You're listening to get rich education. We've got the CEO and President of ridge lending group back with us, an investor centric lender. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold.   You know what's crazy? Your bank is getting rich off of you. The average savings account pays less than 1% it's like laughable. Meanwhile, if your money isn't making at least 4% you're losing to inflation. That's why I started putting my own money into the FFI liquidity fund. It's super simple. Your cash can pull in up to 8% returns, and it compounds. It's not some high risk gamble like digital or AI stock trading. It's pretty low risk because they've got a 10 plus year track record of paying investors on time in full every time. I mean, I wouldn't be talking about it if I wasn't invested myself. You can invest as little as 25k and you keep earning until you decide you want your money back, no weird lock ups or anything like that. So if you're like me and tired of your liquid funds just sitting there doing nothing, check it out. Text FAMILY to66866, to learn about freedom, family investments, liquidity fund, again. Text FAMILY to 66866   hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine at Ridge lending group NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation, because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start Now while it's on your mind @ridgelendinggroup.com that's Ridge lendinggroup.com   Rick Sharga  19:48   this is Rich charga, housing market intelligence analyst. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.   Keith Weinhold  20:06   Welcome back to get rich education. We're talking with a steady guest over time, because not only are they an income property centric mortgage loan company that do mortgage loans in 49 of the 50 states, but they're also centered on education and looking out for you, the investor, over the long term. And cheyley, such an interesting product that you offer is called the all in one loan. It's been a long time since you and I have really talked about this. What it is is a first lien HELOC. It's a way for you to use the equity in your existing properties. You can do it with either a primary residence or investment properties. There are just so many reasons why an all in one load just kicks the butt on a conventionally amortizing loan, including that all payments are applied to principal first and only, and a lot of other exciting things. So Caeli, why don't we back up and just describe what the all in one loan is big picture.   Caeli Ridge  21:05   Now there is a lot to unpack, so we're going to take our time. Listener. First of all, let me just explain. Why is it called the all in one it's called that because it doubles as both a mortgage in the form of an open ended revolving HELOC and checking and savings. Both of those two features are combined, hence the all in one as a way of diminishing the amount of interest that can accrue over time. Let me explain so any revolving account, any account, including a credit card, for example, but first lien HELOC, second lien HELOC, whichever doesn't matter, open ended revolving is the key. Any open ended, revolving account will accrue interest daily based on two factors, the first being that day's balance and that months, in this case, interest rate, fully indexed interest rate. I'll come to interest rate later. As a result, you now have control largely over how much interest can accrue. Now let's take that statement and transfer it and look at it against an amortized, closed ended mortgage. You sign up for a 30 year fixed mortgage today. Let's say it's 7% whatever the interest rate is, is really irrelevant. Your principal and interest payment are defined on day one. There is no changing that monthly payment. Now you could certainly accelerate the payoff of that mortgage debt by doing what applying additional extra principal payments, right? But what happens to that extra principal payment when you send it off with your 30 year fixed mortgage payment,   Keith Weinhold  22:34   it drops your loan balance, but your minimum payment amount is the exact same the next month,   Caeli Ridge  22:38   right? And then what happens to all that liquidity that you had prior, it's now illiquid. Right? Exactly that off   Keith Weinhold  22:45   you've just transferred your cash flow into equity. Financial freedom is created by doing the opposite thing and changing equity into cash flow,   Caeli Ridge  22:52   very illiquid, and not the way an investor typically is going to want to run his or her business. So hence the all in one. Now for those of you that have heard the term velocity banking or infinity banking, maybe whole life insurance policy has a similar tone to this. The all in one, I believe, offers even more flexibility for variety of reasons that we're going to get into. But if you've ever heard those terms, that's similar to what this is. So I want to start by I usually like to give an example, okay, and provide some visual aid so that people can connect the dots. Let's start with the 30 year or a fixed rate mortgage. Just because I feel like, especially in the US, this particular loan product, or its concept is widely used in much of the rest of the world, in the US, I feel like we're sort of preconditioned here to really only understand that closed ended, amortized mortgage. So I'm going to start with an example there that actually highlights or leads into the concept of the all in one. So I want you to imagine a 30 year fixed mortgage and a 15 year fixed mortgage. Both of these mortgages originated or started at $400,000 as the balance on day one. The 30 year fixed mortgage locked at an interest rate of 4% and the 15 year fixed mortgage locked at an interest rate of 7% now, when I go through this exercise and I give this example to people, I ask them the question, Well, which one would you choose? And without exception, if they don't understand amortization, they are going to select that 4% 30 year fixed mortgage, because they don't understand that it's about speed. When you run the math and you look at an actual amortization table, you'll see that you'll pay $40,000 more in interest on a 4% 30 year or 360 month, versus a 7% 15 year or 180 month. So the point here, and what I'm illustrating, is it's speed. Now let's segue back over to the all in one. It's all about speed and how much interest we allow to accrue over time. So as you had mentioned, to start the kick this off, Keith, every deposit acts like a payment. Now here's where I struggled with this in learning. And when this was first introduced to me years ago, this part of it really caught me off guard. I had to really dig in and try to focus on what are they talking about? What do they mean? There's no payment due on the all in one. I'm gonna say that again. There's no payment due on the all in one. Think about your 30 year fixed mortgage. If you don't make a payment, what happens?   Keith Weinhold  25:19   You're defaulting, you're in trouble. You become delinquent,   Caeli Ridge  25:23   right? So that is not how this loan is set up. And it's not smoke and mirrors, okay? It's nothing fancy. The deposits that you make from ordinary income from all sources really Okay, so we want to talk about this is really special for investors, because we have access to gross rents, the rental income that's coming in before we send it back out the door, along with our net wages and every other source of income, deposits that we're getting can be utilized to your advantage. One of the ways in which I describe this is, I like to say you've become your own bank, so you have this line of credit, and your gross rents and all of your net wages are going to deposit into your checking account, driving that principal balance down, dollar for dollar, so that the interest accrual is diminished. Because remember what I said a few seconds ago, the interest is calculated on any open ended revolving account based on two factors, the balance for the day and the interest rate, so the more you have in depository income, and you drop it into your checking account, the longer it stays there, the lower the amount of interest is going to accrue within a 30 day billing cycle. Now let me just paint one more picture, and then we can open up to what questions come from this. So I want you to imagine this is I'm going to use easy, round math. I want you to imagine that you have an unpaid principal balance on your mortgage, on your HELOC of $100,000 just for round easy mouth, and that you bring in $10,000 a month in income from all sources. And just to keep it simple, we're going to say that that 10,000 comes in on day one of month one. Okay, so here's our 100 grand sitting there. My $10,000 is deposited into my checking account. Now my balance is $90,000 right? That 10 grand is not going to be touched. You will not touch that $10,000 for 29 days out of a 30 day billing cycle. And I'm giving you optimal tricks. Okay, this is how you want to use it optimally, yeah. Day one, instead of paying interest on $100,000 you're paying interest on paying interest on $90,000 and you're going to pay interest only on $90,000 for 29 days out of a 30 day billing cycle. Well, how am I going to make all my bills? And how am I going to eat? And how am I going to pay my cell phone? And what am I going to do? You're going to use a credit card, or credit cards of your choice, the ones that provide the best points, or whichever you prefer doesn't really matter. To pay all those monthly living expenses now we don't want to pay any interest on our credit cards. Right? 18, 28% whatever it is. No thank you. So now we're going to go to day 30 of that 30 day billing cycle. Right? 29 days that 10 grand has sat in there. Our balance has been 90. Our interest has accrued on that 90. On day 30, the credit card has amassed $9,000 in expenses. You've spent $9,000 for the month on food, gas utilities, car payments, cell phone, everything goes on that card. Day 30, you go into your checking account where your 10 grand has been sitting, and you write a check to pay off the credit card $9,000 so for one day of the month, we went from 90,000 in a balance to 99,000 right. 9000 had to come out of the 10 to pay off the credit card. We had $1,000 left over. Now I want you to fast forward into month to day one our starting balance, because that $1,000 leftover was our residual income, our discretionary our savings, it's what was not spent, but I have full access to it. Should I need it? So day one, month two 99, 000 is my outstanding balance. I drop in my $10,000 of income. 89,000 is what I'm going to be paying interest on for 29 days of a 30 day billing cycle. So this should allow listeners to connect some dots. There are two components of compound interest savings, the first being daily. We've got our income dropping in there. It's just sitting so daily savings, compound interest savings. And then that leftover savings, that residual, that $1,000 is going to be left in there month after month 24/7, access. That's monthly compound interest savings. So those are the two components that make this product profoundly impactful in diminishing that interest accrual over time. Why don't I take a pause   Keith Weinhold  29:30   so with the all in one loan, we're really integrating our consumer accounts with our mortgage. Absolutely right? Is there a way to automate these payments associated with this?   Caeli Ridge  29:43   Yes, I'm glad you asked. So everything that you have become accustomed to today in your checking and savings is going to be exactly the same with the all in one this mortgage is housed by an FDIC insured banking institution. It'll be one of two places depending on which. Which ends up picking up the rights. It'll be North Point or merchants, bank, those are the two that service this loan. Feel free to check them out when you think about the automation of your checking and savings accounts with your B of A, Chase, Wells, Fargo, whomever, credit union, whomever you bank with. Now there will be no difference to that experience and this experience so online bill pay, debit cards, routing numbers, paper checks. Should you still use those mobile apps? If you get a paper check, you take a picture and it uploads to the account. All the same exact automation as you have become used to today will apply with the all in one   Keith Weinhold  30:36   and you described how the all in one loan is an open ended loan versus your plain vanilla 30 or fixed amortizing loan, which is closed ended. For those that don't know, what do those terms open ended and close ended mean?   Caeli Ridge  30:48   So amortized is predetermined over the period of time that you've gotten the mortgage for. So whether it be a 10 year, a 20 year, 2515, 30, whatever it is, it is closed ended, so the interest rate that you secured against the loan amount that you've taken, they have come up with the formula, the calculation that says, This is how much interest you're going to pay over this length of time. And the longer the amount of time that you have selected, let's say a 30 or maybe even a 40 year. Those do exist, in some cases, the longer the amount of time that closed ended amortized mortgages in play, the more interest you're going to pay. Now, it keeps your payment lower for sure, but they're going to make it up in the interest that you'll pay in the long time. Now the open ended revolving just means that it is available to pay down and draw up, and pay down and draw up. It is not closed   Keith Weinhold  31:40   and then with those conventional mortgages, typically, especially when you originate a new loan for years, most of your payment goes to interest, which would not be the case with the all in one loan.    Caeli Ridge  31:53   Exa  ctly. Yeah. So anybody that's looked at an amortization table knows the first 10 ish years, we'll just keep using the most common, 30 year fixed first 10 years or so, maybe even a few years past that, 90% of your payment is going to go to the interest. You won't start chunking down any principal until the back end of that mortgage, 180 or complete flip to the all in one every dollar that goes in there drives the principal down first.   Keith Weinhold  32:18   That is huge, even if you pay a higher interest rate on your all in one loan, you can see how you have fewer dollars out of pocket in interest paid, which is what really matters to you,   Caeli Ridge  32:30   exactly, right? So think about a 20% interest rate. If you're paying 20% interest on 50,000 then 7% interest on 500,000 you can see how the math will work in your favor, regardless of the number in the interest rate in comparing side to side. And one of the other things that we haven't touched on, and maybe this is a good segue, Keith, it's not just the daily deposits. We have clients that take out a, you know, a million dollar line of credit, but they have $500,000 sitting idle for whatever it is their business needs. And in the E commerce. It doesn't even matter, but they have this amount of cash that they're simply going to take from this vehicle a regular checking account over here, and drop it in here, and that interest is saved. That $500,000 that was sitting idle doing nothing over here is now saving interest at an incredible rate. So it's not just the daily and monthly deposits. If you just have idle cash, or you know you're going to be getting a bonus or a tax refund, or whatever it is, those monies that would otherwise just sit in a one to 2% maybe interest bearing checking savings account can now be applied over here, driving down that balance further, dollar for dollar saving in that interest.   Keith Weinhold  33:39   So we are opportunistic investors here, when we see an accumulation of equity in a property or cash in an account, we want to get that moving with this all in one loan again, which is like a first lien HELOC, I would imagine that would we get plenty of room to borrow more in there, and there's been plenty of pay down, we might want to draw against it again for another purchase, and let this thing be flexible like an accordion back and forth as you're drawing the balance down and you're extending it out again. So really, the way I see the flexibility with the all in one loan is that you don't have to go through another mortgage loan origination each time you want to buy a property. You can just draw against this account.   Caeli Ridge  34:20   And we're still just scratching the surface in what this thing does exactly right? And I've said this twice now, you've become your own bank. Yeah, okay, if you pay it down over a short period of time, let's say that you had half a million dollars and you were able to reduce that down to 300,000 there's a $200,000 spread there that, at your discretion, do not have to re pre qualify and pay closing costs. Again, you don't have to ask permission or get it approved, for some reason, those are your funds, your equity, your dollars to do what you want, when you want, how you want. The other thing too is probably a good place to point this out, safety net, as long as there is a spread between what you owe and the credit limit. Whatever that is. If something were to happen That was unfortunate, some unfortunate set of circumstance befell the family, whatever, and no income was coming into the household zero. What would happen if you didn't have money to make your 30 year fixed mortgage payment? You're going to ruin your credit and go into default. Well, the reverse is true with the all in one if there is a spread between the balance and the limit and you needed to not make any deposits, the only thing that's going to happen in that case is interest is going to accrue on top of that balance. The only time a payment deposit is mandated with the all in one is when the balance is about to exceed the limit. That's the only time. Now I'm not saying that that's the way people are going to use it, but that's the reality of it. So what if this? Let's take this down the rabbit hole for a second. If you couldn't make a deposit, you're not going to go into default, right? You're simply going to add some interest on top of the existing balance. But what if you needed to draw from it for living expenses for a couple of months? Yeah? What if you needed, you know, $5,000 a month for three months until you got back on your feet, whatever it is you have access to do that. There's your safety net. You just simply draw from it, as long as there's a spread between the balance and the limit, those are your funds to do with what you choose    Keith Weinhold  36:13   if one takes out a HELOC, whether that's in an all in one loan form or not, something that I've advocated with my listeners for years is that now you do have this line that you can draw against to your point Haley, it's effectively another layer of insurance for that borrower or investor. So if you're interested in keeping down your insurance premium, you can get a HELOC or an all in one loan increase your insurance deductible, which can lower your insurance premium and increase your cash flow.   Caeli Ridge  36:43   Good point. You know, I hadn't even thought about that before. That is a new one on me that is actually brilliant. Yes.   Keith Weinhold  36:50   now we had a listener quite a while ago, Mark from Granite Bay, California, right in Mark's a great long time listener. When he found our show, he wanted to go back and re listen to all the old episodes. And he listens to several episodes multiple times. And Mark wrote in because he heard you on the show quite a while ago. And Mark says, I've been using the all in one loans, amazing mortgage balance deduction. But as a GRE listener, I know I can't be lured in by that alone. I also need to utilize its leverage. I just used my all in one loan Mark continues to say, probably, like a lot of others, to buy a duplex for mid south home buyers in all cash and then refinance that loan into a fanniefreda 30 year from my all in one loan simulations, and Caeli has an all in one loan simulation on her website that she'll tell you about. But to finish Mark's question, Mark says, I have gathered in these simulations that as long as properties are cash flowing, the best use of the all in one seems to be to keep repeating what we did on our first duplex purchase, use the all in one loan, to buy properties in all cash, and then later refi it into better debt or leverage, and then continue to repeat the process. Is that a valid way to use it? That's Mark's question.   Caeli Ridge  38:03   Absolutely. Mark, Well done, sir. And there's a few points here that I want to take a minute and peel back, Keith, so one of the first things that I would say that's really great about that philosophy or that strategy is going to be that on a cash out refinance of the property that was paid cash, using the all in one we get to use the appraised value. So under the circumstances, if you paid $100,000 for it, and perhaps it valued at 110, 151, 20, whatever it is, then we as the lender are going to refinance on a cash out refinance using that higher appraised value, so you have a little bit more leverage there, and potentially get more in that loan to value when you're comparing what you're getting back versus what you put in. The other thing, obviously, is that when you're dealing with a turnkey or a seller, an agent, whatever, everybody knows that when you can come to the table with cash, yeah, right, you become the more desirable buyer. There's that obvious piece, and then in terms of that strategy and that simulation. So please, yes, that is absolutely the first thing that I'm going to do with anybody that calls in is I'm going to get on the phone with them, a teams call, and we're going to do the simulator together. But I encourage everybody to get in there and play around with it. If you're not quite sure what data points it's asking for, let us know, or we'll do one together. But that simulator is going to allow you to compare the all in one to either an existing mortgage on a primary rental property or a new traditional mortgage. Let's say you're thinking about buying an investment property with a 30 year fixed and you want to compare that to the all in one, or maybe you want to refinance one of your existing properties, so you can compare it to existing versus new. And then within that simulation, it will allow you to forecast additional spending. That will allow you to say, I want to take out $50,000 in month 22 and it'll reformulate where the simulation of saved interest, payoff time, all of those things will be available to you within that simulator. It's very slick.    Keith Weinhold  40:00    And now that you, the investor, have the ability to pay all cash, not only can you close faster, but a lot of times, sellers are willing to give you a discount, since you can close faster and pay all cash, and then it's up to you down the road to go ahead and refinance that into a conventional product, or however else you want to do it. Caeli, what else should we know about the all in one loan?   Caeli Ridge  40:24    Couple things I would share. First of all, the qualification metric for the all in one is going to be a little bit more restrictive than a traditional 30 year fixed mortgage, so be prepared for a little extra brain damage. I know that getting qualified for mortgages is not everybody's favorite activity. I get it. There's a lot that goes on to it. It's not like the good old days where some remember you could fog a mirror and get a mortgage, but the all in one does take it to another level, even beyond what you're used to now. So debt to income ratio, I'll give you the specifics really quickly, so just be prepared. I like to set that expectation. Debt to income ratio caps at 43% on the all in one versus 50% that we would have from a traditional Fannie Freddie, 30 year fixed. The reserve requirement is calculated based on the line limit. It's dependent on the debt to income ratio. I'll just leave it there. It'll either be 10% or 15% of the line limit. So if the limit was 100 grand, 10,000 or 15,000 is the reserve requirement, and then the minimum credit score requirement. Owner Occupied is 700 non owner occupied is 720 so a little bit higher on the bar for qualification for the all in one.   Keith Weinhold  41:33   Who is this for? And who is it not for?   Caeli Ridge  41:36   It is for anyone generally that has at least 10% discretionary income at the end of the month. Typically, everybody's circumstances are different. I encourage you to play with the simulator. Get on my schedule. Let's do it together. But more often than not, we find that 10% left over at the end of the month is generally enough for it to work for the individual, and for those of you that got 2% interest rates during the pandemic, I just want you to know that I'm running the simulator against those loans day in and day out. And I would say, I'll give you a 65% of the time the all in one is beaten the, you know, what, out of a two and a half percent 30 year fixed mortgage   Keith Weinhold  42:12   that is really interesting. Well, there's a lot of opportunity and flexibility with the all in one loan. Is there any last thing that we should know about it.   Caeli Ridge  42:22   Start doing your due diligence. This does take a minute to unpack. Don't get overwhelmed by all the information. We've talked about some real tangible stuff here, but there's quite a bit that there would be to uncover. So take your time. Call us. We'll walk through it step by step   Keith Weinhold  42:36   and get started on that simulator and really see what it can do for you to make that actionable. Caeli, Where should one start?   Caeli Ridge  42:44   Head to our website, ridgelendinggroup.com you can email us info@ridgelendinggroup.com and obviously we're always a phone call away at 855, 74, Ridge   Keith Weinhold  42:54   and again, you can find that all in one loan simulator, where you can plug in some real numbers and see how it can benefit you. A friendly representative from Ridge can help you. Go ahead and do that there. So there's a lot of excitement about the all in one loan, especially, or an investor that has a GRE mindset philosophy and thinks about the opportunity of dead equity. But now that we've talked about that, tell us just quickly about some of the other products that you offer in there at ridge.   Caeli Ridge  43:23    So I think one of the real value adds for us is that we're not a one size fits all. We have an extremely diverse menu, as I like to call it, of loan programs. The all in one is at the top of a short list of my favorites. For some individuals, you got the fanniefriddies. You've got non QM, which includes DSCR, debt service, coverage ratio, bank statement loans, asset depletion loans. We have ground up construction for those that are interested in that. We have our short term bridge loans that I talked briefly about, where if you need fix and flip fix and hold, potentially, you need shorter term money, commercial loans for commercial products, commercial loans for residential in a cross collateralization way, if that is to your advantage. So as you can see, it's quite diverse.    Keith Weinhold  44:03   It's been valuable as always, and I definitely learned a few extra things that I did not know about the all in one loan myself. JAYLEE Reyes, it's been great having you back on the show, Keith. Thank you.   Now a mortgage company, of course, they have overhead and employees that they have to pay and so on. And you know, from talking with Chaley some more, I learned that they don't even make much profit from all in one loans. We wanted to discuss it together today for your benefit. However, though there are some real fees with the all in one loan, you pay points of three to 4% of the draw in closing costs only, but it's a one time fee, not every time you draw against it. She also let me know that it does not make your taxes substantially. More complicated, if you think that it can help you clear a few minutes, learn more and get hooked up with that all in one loan simulator, where they will help you through it. Big thanks to Caeli Ridge today, they really make themselves available. You can just call 855, 74, Ridge. Or if it's more your style, visit them at Ridge lending group.com Until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.   Speaker 1  45:31   Nothing on this show should be considered specific personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively.   Keith Weinhold  45:59   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, getricheducation.com.    

Get Rich Education
541: Will a Boomer Selloff Make Housing Prices Crash?, This Vice is Destroying Young Men

Get Rich Education

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 17, 2025 51:12


Keith discusses the impact of baby boomers on the housing market, noting that contrary to popular belief, many boomers are choosing to age in place. He also addresses the negative effects of gambling, particularly sports gambling, on young men, including financial ruin and increased bankruptcies. 54% of baby boomers state that they will never sell their homes.  People aged 55+ own more than half of U.S. homes. The overall population growth in the US has grown at its fastest rate since 2001, reaching over 340 million. Millennials and Gen Z, the largest generations, are driving future housing demand.  Resources: GRE Free Investment Coaching:GREmarketplace.com/Coach Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/541 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai    Keith Weinhold  0:01   Welcome to GRE. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. All the baby boomers are about to sell off their homes and downsize, unleashing a glut of supply onto the market, and housing prices crash. Is there cogency to that theory or not? I give you a definitive answer, the Trump bump, then later, a pernicious vice is destroying more people's lives today, especially young men and almost no one is talking about this. It's leading to lower credit scores, more bankruptcies and even more suicides today on get rich education   since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com.   Corey Coates  1:25   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  1:41   Welcome to GRE from Hyannis, Massachusetts to Hiram, Utah and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are inside get rich education episode 541 just another slack jawed and snaggletoothed podcaster here now a popular, I suppose, media narrative that's been out there for a long time is this premise that US housing prices are going to crash hard because all the aging baby boomers are going to sell their homes, and Boomers are the biggest generation in all of American history. This is just going to magnify the price collapse. It means far more home sellers than buyers. So soon enough, sellers will have to keep cutting prices. Everyone's going to undercut everybody to compete with all of these for sale homes. So as a result, everybody's property values are going to collapse today. Let's look at how bad it will get. Should you get ahead of this and sell it all now and then? I'll even tell you when this popular narrative will supposedly happen with boomers selling en masse, or won't it happen at all. That's what we're looking at, the term silver tsunami. You've probably heard that thrown around in the real estate world. It actually refers to pent up housing stock that older homeowners will eventually choose to sell, which would have that effect of flooding the market with all this new inventory. All right. Now let's define what we're talking about here. Baby Boomers are the generation born just after World War Two, between 1946 and 64 that makes them between the ages of 61 and 79 this year. Okay, so basically, these people are in their 60s and 70s. That's their age. My parents are baby boomers. President Trump is at the upper age limit for a boomer, but they're not all as old as you think. I mean the youngest baby boomers include Michelle Obama, Sandra Bullock and Rob Lowe. So not all boomers are like super old, but see, it is a big generation of over 76 million people. So whatever they do really moves the economy. And maybe you've heard it been said, My gosh, what if we have more dyers than buyers? But now a more nascent trend is that you hear about more and more boomers and people older than boomers not selling their home instead wanting to age in place. And that just means they want to stay in their home and not go to a nursing home or assisted living. And that was recently quantified in a survey that Housing Wire reported on it found that 54% of baby boomers say that they'll never sell their homes, some of them passing homes along as inheritance and see often that's because their home is paid off and assisted living care costs are through. To the roof, more than half of boomers don't have any mortgage at all. All right, so we've established that boomers aren't as old as most people think, and then a lot of them aren't planning to sell. But still, let's look for trouble here, because boomers are a huge group, and some portion of them are going to sell is they age, even if a lot of them say that they won't. How about the almost half of boomers with a mortgage? You know what? Here's the thing, if they downsized, like older people have traditionally done. I mean, my grandparents downsized long ago. But do you know what would happen if boomers downsized? Today? For most, their monthly mortgage payment would actually go up if they downsized. That's because of today's higher mortgage rates and home prices. And see, that's a financial reality that keeps them in place. They're never going to downsize. All right, so a lot of boomers are just not going to sell. But still, this wave of selling boomers crashing the housing market, this has been a popular narrative for, I don't know, maybe more than a decade. Now there's been a lot of smoke, so then where is the fire. That's another way to think about this. So there's got to be more to this. And there is, in fact, people age 55 plus, own more than half of the homes in the US. Did you know that? All right? Well, if we pull back from boomers, and let's just take a look at all homeowners of every age, people are staying in their homes longer, whether they're age 30 or 50 or 80, Americans now stay in the same home about 12 years. That is twice as long as 2005 Well, what that means is that homes don't come onto the market and people cannot buy what's not for sale. And then, of course, you've got the well documented interest rate lock in effect. That's a contributor here to people of all ages with 4% mortgages, they are reluctant to sell. And now what we're talking about here are demographics. Remember that quote, demography is destiny, the three word quote from 1800s era French philosopher Auguste Comte, and that's because it's completely predictable. If you're 32 years old today, in 10 years, you'll be 42 totally predictable. All right, if demographics could possibly crash housing crisis, let's step back and see what's going on with overall US, population growth. You know what? It just grew at its fastest rate since 2001 about a full 1% growth last year, yeah, we broke the 340 million population mark for the first time ever. And now, what about the portion that our immigrants, and what if a substantial amount of them get deported? I mean, after Trump settled into the White House for his second term, deportations began almost immediately. Is there enough population growth to buy from the boomers that do sell their homes? Well, if mortgage rates come down into the low fives, then maybe more boomers will sell and bring some more resale inventory onto the market. See, you need a good chunk, though, of buyers to come in from somewhere in order to support future housing prices. Well, where are those buyers going to be? Well, some people still don't realize that the largest generation in American history is, in fact, not baby boomers, it's millennials. They became the biggest group more than five years ago. In fact, Statista tells us that Gen Z isn't far behind them either. Yeah, Gen Z is almost as big as millennials as a group coming right behind them. And of course, this varies a little bit. Demographers parse the generations somewhat differently, but here's what the rise of the biggest generation means, millennials. They're aged 29 to 44 now, and there are over 70 million of them, and then almost as big the next group right behind them, Gen Z. They're ages 13 to 28 they alone number about 70 million themselves, even if you just completely leave the surge in immigration out of the picture and all the additional housing demand that immigration brings. So we're mainly just looking at the domestic side alone here. So. What's happened is that there were 4 million plus births per year from 1990 to 2010 providing a tailwind for housing demand through 2035, 2045, or later. Yeah, we had more births during many of those years than we did in the peak of the baby boom, which was 1957 like I've mentioned on the show before, the average age of a first time homebuyer is now a record high of 38 years old, per the NAR it's really taken a long time for some people to stop playing the video games and moving out of their parents basement. Okay, well, the peak birth year for the US was 2007 I just told you it was elevated between 1990 and 2010 but 2007 was that peak, alright? So take that peak and add 38 years to it, and you know what? The first time homebuyer demand is just going to continue to build, build, build, and not even reach its peak. Then until 2045 or so, the peak birth year 2007 plus 38 years, that is where the crush of future demand is coming from because that person born in 2007 on average, they're not even going to buy their first home until well into the 2040s   In fact, the number of Americans turning 35 every single year is High, and it just keeps increasing. It's over 4 million now, already up 25% since 2011 and this number of Americans turning 35 is going to keep rising for another decade or two. In fact, this year, it's going to approach 5 million Americans turning 35 new record territory coming. And I keep bringing this up because 35 is a key age, because by that time, almost everyone has moved out of their parents home, and so that's the time where people either need to rent or own themselves, pushing up both rents and prices, and that's why this wave of demand and pent up demand is just gonna keep coming. And by the way, those stats that I gave you there, they're all sourced from the US Census Bureau. I mean, this is exactly where the housing demand just keeps coming from. It's a big factor about why prices keep going up. The demand just keeps piling on, even though affordability worsened, the demand just keeps coming. And it's just going to keep on coming well in to the 2040s now it could very well ebb substantially by, say, the middle of the 2050s but we'll see, and that is still three decades away. And remember, all of this doesn't even include the additional population growth from immigration and how many non deportees that is going to add to the housing demand on top of this, and then, if that's not enough, there is even more future housing demand expected to come from the declining number of occupants per household. Yes, the reduced household size that Stokes housing demand. I touched on this with you a little before on a prior show. But let me go deeper as we continue to corrode this more dyers than buyers. Theory, as we break this down, people have smaller families today. I think everybody knows that back in 1960 there were 3.3 occupants per household. Today, it's just two and a half. And to give you a simple example of how this itself keeps stoking the housing demand, just say that there's a village of 100 people with three occupants per household, they would need 33 and 1/3 homes over time, when that drops to two occupants per household, that's the direction we're going now that same village needs 50 homes just in order to accommodate the shift in household structure. Well, 50 homes is 50% more than 33 and a third, well, that means 50% more homes are needed, and that's even in a scenario where the population stays the same. Yet it's not staying the same, it's rising, and the population is really rising fast for that key household form. Population age range of 35 to 38 years old. Fewer Americans are living together. I expect the housing market to continue shifting toward smaller household counts. One person households will keep rising. I expect that to be one of the most impactful housing trends of this entire 21st century, and it's also really helping fuel a loneliness epidemic, which is another subject unto itself. Well, the three main drivers of this rise in single person households is that first people are delaying those major life events compared to previous generations. They're attending school longer. They're marrying later. They're buying homes later. They're having children later. And as these events are postponed, the time some young adults spend living alone or without children increases. They're playing video games longer as well. The second driver of these single person households is falling. Birth rates when people have children, many are having fewer than previous generations, reducing the average household size. That's pretty obvious. And then third the population composition is getting older. And older, people tend to live with fewer people. If life expectancy rises, this component of the trend would only intensify. Yes, the whole Brian Johnson thing, he is the health influencer that says we now have alive, the first generation that's going to live forever due to advances in longevity in technology. I mean, my gosh, if he is right, what would that do to housing demand? I mean, and it would also push up our average age even more. Gosh, yet, at the same time that all this demand keeps pushing up. America already has a well publicized overall housing shortage of several million housing units. You already know that story well, construction has picked up a little, but not enough to keep up with demand. In fact, American housing supply is still about 30% below pre pandemic levels. So suffice to say, let me give you a satisfying definitive answer here, when are selling boomers going to crash housing prices? It is highly unlikely that that can even happen at all. In fact, you see fewer stories about this than you used to. More people have come to realize that it is just not happening. And looking at us demographics over the next few cycles, a lot more people will need homes demand continuing to exceed supply. This is why home prices should just keep rising from here. In fact, I have been an active single family rental property investor here myself, single family is where perhaps the greatest shortage is and the greatest demand is at the same time I am owning something that people are definitely going to need more of. Remember, demography is destiny, and they're going to pay more and more for it. When mortgage rates fall, it's probably going to bring in even more buying activity, and now all of this continued upward, long term, future price momentum for housing, of course, that all existed before Donald John Trump step into the White House to start his second term last month. I think the Trump factor, or Trump bump, you know what often gets somewhat exaggerated for what it can do to the economy and housing prices, right? I mean, I've talked to you before, it's about the decisions that you make more so than decisions that a politician makes, but Trump is doing some things on a pretty seismic level these nascent immigrant deportations, that obviously can increase the cost of labor you're exporting away your low cost labor with immigrant deportations. I mean, that is inflation tariffs, though some tariffs have been negotiated away for the time being, that's more inflation. So deportations mean wage increases. That's more inflation. Increased wages mean increased rents. Trump talks lower taxes. Lower taxes can then mean higher rent payments. Proposals to eliminate. Made taxes on tips over time and Social Security, that means that Americans and retirees are gonna have more disposable income. More income means higher rent collections, fewer delinquencies, and potentially rising home prices as affordability improves. That's a lot of the good news. It's not all rosy news. You better look out for high tax states salt adjustments that state and local income tax and a deduction cap could harm their property values. We're talking about places like California, New York and New Jersey, the 2017 Trump tax cuts and Jobs Act that gave real estate investors some really juicy benefits, like 20% pass through deduction for LLCs and bonus depreciation on rental properties and lower corporate tax rates too. Combined this stuff, it all keeps more money in your pocket and allows for bigger deals with better cash flow.    We're talking about Trump bump factors on the real estate market here, other proposals on the table, other things like tax breaks for domestic production that could boost us construction, leading to more badly needed housing supply that could lower building costs and investment opportunities in niche in growth markets. Remember opportunity zones, and then what about targeting wealthy investors? We'll see what happens, but Trump's plan removes tax breaks for hedge funds and billionaire sports owners. But could real estate investors get hurt a little on that side too? Maybe look for changes to the 1031 or depreciation strategies. But you know, the 1031 exchange has been around for over 100 years. I would be surprised if it went away completely, and yes, though they have been postponed, if 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada do go into place and the countries retaliate, as they've been shown to do, it would add point seven 6% to US inflation and subtract 410 of a percent from US GDP growth. Aren't those two projections Interesting? Yeah, those estimates were compiled by the Yale budget lab. So adding about three quarters of a percentage point to the overall inflation rate with these tariffs. I mean everything we're talking about the price of your housing or your car tires or your tomatoes and romaine lettuce. I mean, that effect could take money out of people's pockets. Yes, we know that Trump wants to bring down interest rates, but I don't know how he's going to do that. I mean, as you know, more inflation correlates with higher rates, not lower ones. See, you just can't get it all. You just can't have it all. And of course, mortgage rates are not historically high. They've simply been normalized after years of being artificially low. Rates are normal. So normalized is really a term that I like to use. So really, to help summarize what I've shared with you here in the first half of the show, a housing price crash induced by a boomer sell off is not a thing. In fact, almost Oppositely, demographics in this pent up demand should raise up future home prices, and to a lesser extent, a Trump bump can as well. Yes, gosh, Trump just has an insatiable fascination for tariffs. It is truly amazing, and it has more stick to itiveness than say, Mark Zuckerberg, recent fascination with masculine energy and gold chains, that's for sure.   Hey, before we get into the pernicious vice that's destroying more people's lives today, especially young men and almost no one is talking about this, it's leading to lower credit scores, more bankruptcies and even more suicides. First, I've got some cool things to tell you. About two weeks ago here on the show event, host Robert Helms of the real estate guys and I invited you to join us on the terrific Investor Summit at sea, that cruise on the Caribbean. Besides the two of us, there are a number of other great faculty members. Robert Kiyosaki recently announced that he's going to be joining us on the faculty as well. So you'll get to meet and learn from Robert Kiyosaki, and if you happen to be a new listener, he is the top selling personal finance author of all time the. Rich Dad, Poor Dad, author, and he's been our guest here on the GRE podcast four times. Now, I hope to meet you, the listener, in person on the summit at sea in the Caribbean this June, starting out of Miami. Gosh, what an outstanding time that is. It's not a low cost event, however, the minimum cabin in interior cabin is $5,900 and they are more expensive from there if you get nicer accommodations. But all the details are there on GRE podcast episode 539 two weeks ago. I really hope you'll join us and then I can meet you in person.   Earlier this month, Trump established a US sovereign wealth fund, and when he did, I congratulated our frequent contributor here, macro economist Richard Duncan, because Richard championed the establishment of that fund for years. He presented to Congress about it, and Richard was the first ever GRE guest with us back here in 2014 on the Panama coffee farm investing that we've discussed here on the show, Villanova University reached out to them, and they're now collaborating together. It's something I find kind of cool, as a Pennsylvania native and one of my tightest best friends is also a Villanova alum, as for future episodes coming up on the show. Here, imagine if you had a property loan, yet you didn't have to make any payments, and if you did make payments on your loan, then every penny of that payment goes to principal, not to interest. Wouldn't that be incredible? Well, such a thing does exist, and it's not new or experimental or avant garde. People just don't know about this vehicle. We're going to discuss that right here on next week's show, along with some other vital mortgage topics. There are three ways to connect with our education at GRE you're listening to one of them right now, our flagship podcast. Also check out our get rich education YouTube channel, because that is different content than this show. That's the second way, and that show is also on other video first, platforms like get rich education on rumble, and finally, you'll have it all, all three when you get our weekly Don't quit your Daydream newsletter if you don't already get it free now, while it's on your mind, simply text GRE 266, 86, more. Next. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get rich education.    Hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine, at Ridge lending group NMLS 420056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties, they help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start Now while it's on your mind at Ridge lendinggroup.com that's Ridge lendinggroup.com    Oh geez, the initial average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings, so your bank is getting rich off of you. You've got to earn way more, or else you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk, your cash generates up to a 10% return and compounds year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25k you keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back. Their decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And you know how I'd know, because I'm an investor in this myself, earn 10% like me and GRE listeners are. Text family to 66866, to learn about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text family to 66866.   Robert Kiyosaki  29:31   this is our rich dad Poor Dad. Author Robert Kiyosaki, listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold and Don't Quit Your Daydream.   Keith Weinhold  29:50   Welcome back to get rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, every once in a while, there's an investing adjacent activity that becomes. Is pronounced or become such a trend that it just can't be ignored, and you need to know about it. I recently presented on how gambling is financially derailing so many people today, especially young men and sports gambling and what makes California and Texas special here, the two most populous states, by the way, you'll see, once they legalize this, it's gonna get worse. There are two states where it's not legal yet now investing in gambling. They are two distinctly different activities. Investing is different from gambling. When you invest, you're purchasing a stake in an asset that has value in an effort to generate profit. But gambling doesn't involve taking ownership of anything of value. Instead, betters are predicting the outcome of an event gambling. It's really not a side hustle. I mean, people are constantly losing their families and businesses over this. This will be all new material here on the show as usual, except for a short snippet that includes super CPA Tom Wheelwright. This is about 10 minutes in length. Shout out to the media team here at GRE on the production side. And then after this, I have more to tell you about real estate.    Speaker 1  31:30   America is in the midst of an historic surge in legalized gambling.   Keith Weinhold  31:37   This is the worst thing that people are now doing with their time and money today, it's not losing it to inflation, it's not playing video games. It's being a slack jawed gambling degenerate. We are in the midst of an historic surge in legalized gambling, and the devastation on gamblers, especially young men is a lot worse than you think. I've also got a giant ominous warning for you that seasoned gamblers don't even know about when I bring in my CPA for just a minute here today on the seriously punishing tax implications that should scare anybody out of gambling.    Hi, I'm Keith Weinhold, get rich education, founder, Forbes real estate council member, best selling, author, and long time real estate investor. Almost 60% of 18 to 24 year olds have placed at least one sports bet now that's per the NCAA, and that has surged so fast. I mean, just less than a decade ago, major pro sports leagues shunned gambling, disassociating with it because it was illegal in most places. The big turning point was 2018 that's when the Supreme Court ended a decades long ban on commercialized sports betting. 38 states and DC have now legalized it most with minimum age requirements set at 21 and the two biggest platforms are DraftKings and fam duel. They've got about 70% of the market. But look, you can do this if you're under 21 on platforms like prize picks and flip they offer betting like experiences. They operate under fantasy sports or sweepstakes, and having these apps on your phone that just brings the gambling right to you. It keeps it in your face and addictive. Now it's like you're sitting in a casino when you're on your living room so far, or in your bed or even in the bathroom, there is no escape. Two thirds of Americans live in a state where they can access it on their phones. And look how young some of these gamblers are, what they have to say. And then who's showing up in these gamblers Anonymous meetings   Speaker 1  33:56   today's world is the 16, 1718, year olds, 1921, year olds that get addicted years ago, before, unlike casinos, if we had a person coming in and they're 24 years old, it was rare. All right, now the norm, the real norm, it's kids coming in at 17 years old. That's the norm.    Keith Weinhold  34:16   Well, one big reason why it's such a problem is, look, you can't hide it, so that therefore others can't tell if you're gambling, because you're not, you know, shooting it into your veins, or you're not acting drunk, or you're not smoking anything. See, you can gamble without exhibiting a physical change, so therefore others don't know that you need help. And it is all over the place. I mean, gambling ads air on TV over 60,000 times a year. Celebrities endorse gambling. I mean, some teams put gambling ads right on the field. Brick and mortar sports books are even built inside some stadiums now, Caesars and bet MGM. There are two other big platforms that you might see out there, but I mean, in their commercials, yeah, they can put that one 800 gambler help number on screen and tell you things like, gamble within your limits. But look, here's the thing these platforms, they're not going to cut you off if you continue to lose and they profit. In fact, if you win disproportionately big time after time, and these platforms can kind of tell that you're too smart. You know what they do, like a casino that identifies a card shark in Vegas, they're either gonna curtail your activity or just totally cut you off, alright? So then, by definition, if you have an account in good standing at FanDuel or DraftKings, and you bet a lot, and they keep letting you play well, then you have just signaled to the entire world that you don't know what you're doing, and you are going to lose big, or you already have. I mean, that is baked into the cake. That's how the system works. So therefore these companies are basically mining America to find anyone stupid enough to keep placing these sports bets. Companies are profiting from this, and then states are too. I mean, they've collected billions in tax revenue and FanDuel and DraftKings, see, they're publicly traded companies, so this means that they have shareholders, and those shareholders, they want to see profit and growth. I recently asked decorated CPA and mega popular tax author Tom Wheelwright about tax rates on gambling for just a quick three minutes here. I mean, you won't believe how punishing This is.    Can you tell us about sports gambling taxes and how it's treated   Tom Wheelwright  36:43   yeah. So remember, all income is taxable. So that includes gambling winnings. They are taxable. In fact, you'll get a 1099 just like you would if you rendered services, you know, you'd get a 1099 right? Or you have interest income, you get 1099 you get 1099 from gambling. What you actually have to show is that you actually have gambling losses. So you have to track those gambling losses to show the IRS that you've got gambling losses. But your gambling losses can never be more than your gambling winnings. In other words, you don't you never get to generate a tax loss on gambling. So that means is, is that if you win $10,000 during the year, and you can prove that you lost $8,000 during the year, you're gonna be taxed on $2,000 but if you can't prove the 8000 you're gonna be taxed on 10,000 Yeah,   Keith Weinhold  37:39   so you the gambler have the burden of tracking this, and I guess tracking your losses. I'm not a gambler. How would one track their losses?   Tom Wheelwright  37:47   Oh, I would keep a detailed ledger. Personally, I'd probably have a separate bank account just for gambling. Gosh, that's the way I would do it. I'm not a gambler either. So by the way, it's also a good way to budget your gambling so they, you know, get in trouble, right? So just set up a separate bank account, put whatever money you say, I'm comfortable with this money, I'm going to gamble with this money, put in that bank account, and then you have a ledger that shows the money that went in and the money you lost, the money you won, and don't do anything but gambling in that bank account.   Keith Weinhold  38:18   Hey, that separate account's a great way to hide it from your spouse, not that I'm suggesting.   Tom Wheelwright  38:25   Well, interesting. You went there.   Keith Weinhold  38:29   I'm not a gambler at all. Can't even believe I was thinking that far ahead. What are the gambling tax rates like? They're ordinary   Tom Wheelwright  38:35   income tax rates. So gambling winnings are just ordinary income they're they're the same as your wages. They don't have social security taxes their income, just like any other kind of income, nothing special, okay?   Keith Weinhold  38:47   And this all applies to whether it's sports gambling or general gambling, like lotteries and sweepstakes.    Tom Wheelwright  38:53   Just remember, all incomes taxable unless the government says it isn't all income, okay? And then there's some types of income that are taxed at special rates, like capital gains, but gambling has no special rate, so it's just your ordinary income rates.   Keith Weinhold  39:09   Gosh, to me, it seems like it's, it's hard to break even with gambling over time, and then when you take the tax adjusted earnings that you get from it, you know, over the long term, you know, I just don't think Harris and Bally's Casino is really incentivized to inform gamblers on how punitive this can be with ordinary income tax rates applied to gambling winnings.   Tom Wheelwright  39:30   No, but they will send you your 1090, 9g I guarantee that.   Keith Weinhold  39:34    So can you imagine tracking all that and then paying all that in tax, and this is even if you're on the winning side and then keeping a separate bank account as well. And note that Tom and I were talking federal. There. It gets even worse. Some state laws are punishing, like New York, which has a 51% tax rate on mobile sports wagering bank. Up 28% since states have legalized this and credit scores have dropped now, California and Texas are the two big states, and they still haven't legalized sports gambling. They're the two big ones, and when they do, that's when you'll see more bankruptcy and more people, especially young men in financial ruin. I mean gamblers, Anonymous meetings are filled with people hooked on betting and on stock options trading too, and you know, Worse still, among addiction disorders, gambling has a comparatively high suicide attempt rate. And you know, understand that, while both involve risk, investing in gambling are two different things. When you invest, you're purchasing a stake in an asset that has value in an effort to generate profit. But gambling doesn't involve taking ownership of anything with value. Instead, betters are predicting the outcome of an event. Now, I gambled as a teen on sports, and back then, it was just a friend and I, we would each lay a $20 bill on top of the television at the start of like a Mets versus Phillies baseball game, and then it sure made the game more interesting to watch. There wasn't any sort of app to make it easy, suck me in and make it a recurrent practice. I haven't gambled since. Now that you're aware of the gravity of the problem, the best thing you can do for yourself is to delete those apps off your phone. Because look, I mean every gambler that had their lies flipped over and turned catastrophic at one time, they told themselves, you know, I'm doing this, but it's under control. I mean, everybody once said that the best thing you can do is delete FanDuel DraftKings and any other apps like that off of your phone right now and vow to never do it again. I hope you like that. You know, it's sort of interesting and introspective to me that I would produce a piece of media like this because I am a sports fan. I watched more of the NFL this past season than I have in a while. You know, I'm in a phase of my life, or I'm a pretty productive person, doing research and interviewing guests and producing GRE media. But you know, I justified watching more sports lately because there's room for an entertainment bucket in everyone's life. That's how I feel. And you know, I don't really watch movies. Most movies I watch feel like a waste of my time when I'm done after two hours, because I'm usually disappointed in it. If I ever watch movies, I gotta watch movies on the plane, because even if it was lousy, I got somewhere in the process. So in any case, now, if gambling is controlled, well, then it might be debatable about whether or not it's a vice, like, say you go to Vegas and have your $250 spending limit or whatever.    But just remember, every gambling degenerate once told themselves and everybody that they know that they've got it under control, but yeah, often they didn't around here, we champion owning real estate directly yourself, that is something that is in your control. So we're not talking about REITs, Real Estate Investment Trusts. That's just a publicly owned company and a group of them. It's not real estate tokenization. That means owning digital fractional shares of a property or a real estate investment. I mean direct whole ownership also means it's not a syndication now that might be worth doing, though, that means that you're pooling other investors money. It's not direct whole investing. If you are investing in someone else's syndication, meaning that you're a limited partner and direct real estate investing, it means not being a flipper or a wholesaler. Again, those things might be worth doing, but they're really time consuming, and they're not tax advantaged either. But when you own rental real estate directly yourself, you don't even need to be a landlord. If you choose not to you, then will not be that point of contact for your tenants when others manage it. And yes, because of the five ways that you're paid, you can make the case that real estate has hegemony over other assets, and for the demographic reasons and the inflationary reasons, like the ones that I told you about earlier today, real estate appears poised to continue as the. Hegemon. In fact, recently, so many global hedge funds have dumped every stock that they have, except for the real estate stocks. I shared that article with you in our newsletter recently. That's largely a tariff response. Let me tell you about real properties on GRE marketplace right now that are ripe for owning directly. I mean direct ownership. That's also the easiest to understand. You are paid rent by a tenant that lives there, often through your property manager, and unlike the out of control sports gambler, this is very much in your control. A brand new build single family rental in Columbiana, Alabama, that's just south of Birmingham. Rent is $1,925 the price is $269,900 over 1600 square feet, four, bed, two bath. Now with the new build, expect low maintenance costs. Is currently vacant, get an interest rate of six and three quarters percent with a 25% down payment on this new build, single family rental in Alabama. Then another sample here. This is interesting. The rent on this old build Davenport Iowa duplex is $1,900 which is about the same rent as the Alabama single family rental I just described. But yet the price for this Davenport duplex is just $183,000 Davenport is part of America's Quad Cities with a combined population of about half a million with both duplex sides. It's a combined square footage of almost 2700 square feet, five, bed, two, bath. They're on Brown Street in Davenport, and now, as favorable as those $1,900 combined duplex rents are, since this property is vintage, in fact, it's over 100 years old, you better check closely on the renovations that were made to the property and have plenty set aside for any maintenance and repairs as well, with a 25% down payment, expect an interest rate of just six and one quarter percent. And there are more financing details there. And of course, rates are always changing. The last one I'll mention is this new build, another duplex, this one in Inverness, Florida. This is really interesting too. And now, what do you think when you think of Florida, real estate? Does climate change come to mind? For some people, it does. For some it doesn't, maybe even rising sea levels over the long term. Well, Inverness, Florida is 15 to 20 miles inland, and it's 50 feet above sea level. How about high insurance rates? Does that come to mind with Florida? Well, they're not so high on new build properties, since they're built to today's stringent hurricane standards. Is Florida temporarily over built, even though the nation, in aggregate is under built? Yes, some Florida markets are overbuilt, and that's how you could potentially snag a deal and get this with 25% down, you can get an interest rate as low as four and three quarter percent, yes, and that's showing with zero buyer paid discount points, the combined rent from both sides of this new build Inverness duplex is estimated at $2,830 of course, often you need to estimate a rent range or make an estimate on the projected rent for new builds, because often they're not occupied yet, since they were just built, sales price of just a touch under 420k on the Inverness duplex, and as just one of the five ways you're paid the cash on cash return is projected at 5% yes, your return goes up into the positive cash flow zone when your mortgage rate is as low as four and three quarters percent. I mean, that is really attractive. It also comes with a year of free property management. So there you go, a new build single family rental in Alabama, an old duplex in Davenport, Iowa, and a new build duplex with just killer incentives in Inverness, Florida, and that's just the sampling of real estate pays five ways type of properties. We either help you get started or continue on your path to financial freedom and help you do that. With our completely free investment coaching, we work with you to help you with these properties or others like them or none at all, if it's not in your best interest to invest now at GRE marketplace.com All you need to do to get started from GRE marketplace.com is click on the coaching area and you can get on the calendar for a free strategy session until next week, I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.   Speaker 2  50:35   Nothing on this show should be considered specific personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively, Chris,   Keith Weinhold  51:03   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, getricheducation.com  

Get Rich Education
540: Investor Insights: Amenities That Drive Big Rental Profits

Get Rich Education

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 10, 2025 44:26


Keith shares the top amenities tenants want in rental units, based on a survey by GreyStar with over 90,000 responses. He's joined by long-time friends of the show, Terry and Liz to discuss investment strategies, emphasizing the importance of buying properties in the "sweet spot" and the benefits of allowing pets, which can lead to longer tenant stays.  They also touch on:  Trade-offs Between Buying Multiple Cheap Properties vs. One Expensive Property Quality of Properties and Tenant Demographics Screening Tenants and Handling Pets New Construction vs. Renovated Properties Investor Life Cycle and Exit Strategies Resources: Visit MidSouthHomeBuyers.com and explore their investment opportunities. Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/540 GRE Free Investment Coaching:GREmarketplace.com/Coach For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai    Keith Weinhold  0:01   Welcome to GRE! I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. What are the features that tenants want in their rental units today, and what amenities are most profitable for real estate investors? Bedroom, count, bathroom, count, cover, parking, pet policy and more, what matters what doesn't, and how do you optimize operations to maximize your profit? It's a conversation with me and two terrific real estate pro guests today on get rich education.    Speaker 1  0:31   Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, who delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com   Corey Coates  1:17   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  1:33   Welcome to GRE from Tacoma, Washington to the took pony Palmyra bridge spanning the Delaware out of Philadelphia and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and this is get rich education, the voice of real estate investing Since 2014 I'm grateful for your faithful listenership. If you're new around here, join in at GRE we do this one big headline show every week, never more, never fewer, and truly, every single week for more than 10 years now, let's talk about amenities that tenants want in apartments today, before we pivot to discussing properties in general and single family homes in our conversation coming shortly. Now, you might have heard of GrayStar before they are international real estate developers and managers, well, they received more than 90,000 survey responses from apartment tenants on their most preferred features and amenities. So we've got a good sample size here, and Gray star compiled the top 20. Let's just hit the top five. This is important, because your tenant is your customer, and when you serve them, you're not only making them happy, you yourself are positioned to be more profitable long term. Here we go. The number one preferred feature is, do you have any guess what tenants want? It's the walk in closet. 51% of apartment tenants said that they are interested in this feature, and 37% would not rent an apartment without it. On average, they're willing to pay a $75 a month premium, and the survey shows that this is particularly important in Dallas and Miami, where over half said that they would not rent without it. The second most important amenity to apartment tenants is large windows with abundant natural light. 56% that they're interested in this feature. 31% would not rent an apartment without it, and on average, they're willing to pay an $80 a month premium for the large windows. When you think about how more tenants work from home today than five years ago? Well, big windows make more sense. Third most important is fresh air ventilation. 69% said that they're interested in it, and on average, they're willing to pay a $79 per month premium. The highest demand for fresh air ventilation is in Seattle, San Francisco and San Jose. We're talking about the top five amenities that apartment tenants want today in order, the fourth most important one is covered parking or a garage. 52% said that they're interested in this feature. Fully a third would not rent an apartment without it, and on average, they're willing to pay a $75 a month premium, and this is most important in urban areas with a covered parking or garage, where 42% will not rent a unit without it, in those urban areas. And then the fifth one is high efficiency appliances, 71% said they're interested in this feature. On average, they're willing to pay a $79 a month premium, and this, this high efficiency appliance thing, is more important for the high income tenant segment. So there they are, the top five features and amenities that. Apartment tenants want today. So to review, in order, it's a walk in closet, big windows, fresh air, ventilation, covered parking or a garage, and finally, high efficiency appliances. And listen in as I'll have a robust discussion with two season real estate pros. We're going to go beyond apartments about the features that tenants and real estate investors alike want today, and at times, they will talk about their home markets of Memphis, Tennessee and Little Rock, Arkansas, which are some of the most investor advantaged markets anywhere. And you'll have to calibrate some of these numbers to your market, because in these places, the typical single family rental purchase is just 100 to 200k and rent is between$900 and 1600 and at other times, we will talk more nationally and globally.    Hey, well, I'd like to welcome in long time friends of the show, with the emphasis on long time since they were first here with us, more than 10 years ago on episode nine in 2014 those ever steady quality property providers from Memphis, Tennessee, mid south homebuyers, it's the return of their principal, Terry Kerr and investor relations lead, Liz Nalen, Terry and Liz, welcome back.   Terry Kerr  6:25   Thank you, Keith. It's great to be here. Thanks so much, Keith, great to be back.    Keith Weinhold  6:28   Yes, it's beginning to feel like a high school class reunion or something. I anticipate my high school class reunions just like I anticipate our discussion today. Let's talk about your individual takes on investment philosophy, common investor mistakes, and is some investor conventional wisdom true, or is it not? Because there's probably some of that that we have to debunk, I think a common one. And I know you get that question in there from investors and our listeners, you had that conversation it was it better to buy two cheap properties or one expensive property talk to us about some of those trade offs.   Liz Nowlin  7:07    It's such an interesting thing, and there's so many factors you can look at. I broke it down for myself personally. Probably 12 years ago, I was asking myself that question as an investor and I ran 2 $50,000 houses, I'm dating myself against $100,000 house, and even when I manipulated the appreciation for the $100,000 house at the higher rate. And actually, we've been talking about investor conventional wisdom, and that is actually a piece of conventional wisdom I've not seen hold true as much, but that a higher end neighborhood is going to appreciate a more rapid pace than a more blue collar neighborhood. So that, as a side note, is a piece of conventional wisdom that I've seen a bit debunked, but it really ramping up the appreciation on the $100,000 house. I think I put it at reselling at like 180 or 190 down the line, and I put my $50,000 houses at maybe 90. You know, not as aggressive for me. Two houses beat one, every kind of way that I shook it out. And of course, the 50,000s had lower individual cash flows, but still, I think matching or higher than the 100. And the one thing I'm not sure that I put in there is two water heaters versus one water heater, two furnaces versus one, but running the same maintenance in general for them. Terry, what do you think   Terry Kerr  8:32   I started out buying houses a little bit lower than I should and what I mean a little bit lower like and a little bit lower quality neighborhoods, and quickly learned that you can't buy too low, you know, you got to buy them, you know, in the sweet spot. So I bought in the A class areas. I bought in the areas that were a little too low, and then found the sweet spot. And then within the sweet spot, I've got a bunch of houses that are in the mid range where we typically operate, and personally, I've also got a bunch of duplexes. I like duplexes. So whether that's duplexes or a little bit upper or a little bit lower, personally, I like a mix of them. And I'm a buy and hold guy. So the stuff that I buy and hold I'm holding for the extra long time, initially, right out of the gate, you've got to look at things like cost segregation, closing costs and all that kind of deal. So really, everyone kind of needs to run their own numbers, because what might make sense for one person just might not make sense for someone else. And again, I'm kind of all over the board. You factor in how much you're going to spend in closing costs, how long do you intend to hold the property? What's it going to cost to sell the property in 1015, 20 years. But again, the cost segregation and just everyone needs to kind of run their own numbers. I think.    Speaker 2  9:47   closing costs times two versus times one is an interesting point. Paying to mow a yard is paying to mow a yard. But then you get into another rub that I think I put them I don't think I did a square footage variation, but I like smaller Homes. It's less on paint. It's less on vacant utilities. The lower your rent is to a degree, the more people can afford to rent it, and the more recession proof you are, in my opinion. And I wasn't running through that as well, but in my antique valuation from 2012 that $100,000 house is going to be bigger often than the littler guys for the rent. Not you know, you can have a play between neighborhood quality and size of house with rents, which is a determining price. But Keith, what do you think two or one?    Keith Weinhold  10:33   Yeah, the two thing versus one thing has a lot of trade offs. As an investor, I think about the advantages of where one is going to have less management, even though I use a property manager, but with respect to the size of the property, I think a lot of us know, and the new investor doesn't know, say, a 1500 square foot unit versus a 3000 square foot rental unit. Well, with the 3000 you often have twice the maintenance, but you only get a little more in rent income. So depending on the market you're in, typically something more like a 1500 square foot rental unit is going to work out better.   Terry Kerr  11:06   Yep, I agree. And then also, another one of the things that I found out is buying houses a little too far up market going to be renting to folks that are more apt to buy a house, right? And so you might have more turnover and a more expensive house just because it's in, you're renting in an area where folks may just not stay as long. And one of the things that that, of course, we like about Memphis is it's predominantly a rental market, so we're able to kind of have the best of both worlds there. But    Liz Nowlin  11:32   kind of, going back to investor conventional wisdom, I think a common mistake, or maybe a mistake isn't the right word, but I hear investors say that they would not buy a house that they would not live in, and I find that they tend to be very expansive times of their life. They often have young children are possibly planning to do it. And one of the best renters I ever had was a little old lady on Social Security, on a fixed income. She lived in my house for seven years. She paid on time like crazy. She added a garden that my home didn't have, and she would have never paid the extra $25 a month that a second bathroom would have called for from that property. And people forget that you'd people downsize as much as they upsize. There's divorce or just retirement, there's empty nesters. Families shift down as much as they shift up. Because investors are often they're talking to me from their four bedroom, two bath house, and they couldn't conceive of renting a smaller thing long term. They just kind of missed that aspect.   Keith Weinhold  12:38    Right for me, it's definitely not a criterion. Would I live in the property myself? And that makes it eligible to hold as a rental? No, it's just the opposite. Really. I don't think any of my rentals are ones that I would prefer to live in, because it wouldn't upgrade my lifestyle. Yet, it's still doing the clean, safe, affordable, functional housing thing. We're talking about the quality of properties here. Class A, properties are deemed the best class, D, the worst. What are your thoughts? Is B class better than C class? And is a really the best of all? I mean, for example, do you get better renters in a class, or are they finicky and then they have the means to move out and go buy their own place, if they have a 790 credit score and they're living in a class a unit, what are your thoughts here?   Terry Kerr  13:22    I think c plus to b minus is the sweet spot. You get into the a plus. Like you said, there's going to be more turnover, because folks are going to be buying houses, and then you've got expensive appliances that you're going to be responsible for fixing in and a lot of A plus neighborhoods, but the C minus, and I can only really truly speak to Memphis and Little Rock, but the C minus the B plus I feel is the sweet spot that's for the size of the property, as well as the typical length of rentership.   Liz Nowlin  13:52   I managed a class for about a decade before I came to work for Terry in 2009 and we ran a great ship, and we had a great, beautiful high rise, but a year was really the average stay a class renters are more litigious. I was operating a building next to a law school, and I had young lawyers and law students, but that's going to be true in any kind of a class area. When you're paying a rent of that amount you are going to call in a work order because the doorknob is slightly loose, a lot of it. And very interestingly, I think we still had some collection issues, even renting to nurses, lawyers, just a small percentage. It's the dark side of property management. But I saw alcoholism, divorce just in a small percentage. But it doesn't wipe it out the way that you would think it would. I've seen college students going to WashU and Ivy League level stuff leave apartments in terrible, terrible conditions. Think that's another kind of investor myth around that    Terry Kerr  14:52   the blue collar folks that we're renting to here in Memphis and Little Rock, they're not going to call us for the loose doorknob. They're just going to pull out the screwdriver. And fix it, just to kind of piggyback on that. It's another one of the benefits of operating in that space   Speaker 2  15:05    lawn care. It's a little thing, but everything adds up, right? Like our renters are going to mow their own lawns and they expect it, and it's how it was at their last place. You're not pulling that off at the high high end   Keith Weinhold  15:16   when you're screening tenants. Do you have the ability to tell when someone is going to look after the place better, and because a lot of the single family home rentals that you do, I mean the tenants, for example, are even responsible for taking care of their lawn, or are they going to be responsible enough to call in a leak, but not so annoying that they're going to call you to adjust the kitchen cabinet door that's a little bit loose. So how can you help screen tenants to learn some of those things before they even move in.   Speaker 2  15:43   Our typical renter is coming to us from another single family home, and so one of the kind of unique ways that we screen tenants is that you have to have immediate landlord history. It's like with a lot of places, if you go rent somewhere for a couple years, you leave in good standing, you come and live with your mom for a year, everybody else in town would accept that positive rental history from a prior place. But one thing that that I love about working here and then what we do is that being in business for 24 years, we've had a lot of chances to kind of do things the wrong way and figure out how to do it right. And they Terry instituted a system in the early years, where any time a renter fell off the rails, they would look back through that file, was there anything? Was there anything that could have predicted that? And sometimes the answer is no, and it's just the first time somebody's hit hard times. But one of the things they found is, well, hey, this guy hadn't paid rent in a year. He did have good rental history, but he hadn't paid rent in a year, and then that bill, he'd gotten used to not paying so much, and so that just helps.   Terry Kerr  16:47   Absolutely   Keith Weinhold  16:48    yes, getting that reference from their current or previous landlord can give you so much on what the expectations are going to be for the tenancy there in their place. And then, of course, there's a whole thing where, if you're talking to the current landlord and they're trying to move out, you're really trying to get to the bottom of the things and just find out if their current landlord wants them to move out because they can't get pay, or they're doing something nefarious. They're not paying rent, or something like that. That's sort of something that one needs to decipher as well. But of course, the history is going to help project the future better than anything else. And one thing we're talking about the operations of properties, and you sort of touched on it. Liz, where you had that tenant that started her own garden, she's someone that wouldn't care to pay more for a second bathroom. So why don't we talk about some of the pros and cons with the bathroom? Are two bathrooms always better than one, or is it just one more place to have maintenance and repair problems?   Speaker 2  17:40   real quick, just back on the other thing, for all the philosophies that you can bring, the guy that I worked for before, Terry never did any landlord verifications, because the worst renter he ever had was personally dropped off at the property by the prior landlord.    Keith Weinhold  17:56   Oh my gosh, making it easy for him. And he said, I'm done   Speaker 2  17:59   so anyway, but the bathrooms is such a hot spot, there's definitely the second bathroom rules crowd. And then I've seen a seasoned investor that says that's just one more toilet to clog.   Terry Kerr  18:14   Yeah, but I would say that right now, I'm pretty sure that the property that I have on Powell is the longest resident I've ever had. She moved in 11 years ago, is still there. It's the smallest house that I own. It's like 794 square feet. It's tiny, and it's got just one bathroom. But she's single, and when she moved in, she said they're gonna have to carry me out of here. And I hope that's not for a long, long time. But like Liz mentioned, there are a lot of folks that just want one bathroom because they're just going to be living in their solo or even married couple. That is downsizing. So we have a mix, and we like to be able to have something, you know, for everyone. So our two bedroom baths perform very well, just like the three twos   Keith Weinhold  18:58   I once owned three rental properties. They were all built the same way. There was one bathroom in each of them, which would have been okay for one or two people to live there, except the only bathroom in these two story places was on the second floor for all three of them, and that did prevent some people from renting it. They didn't like the fact that the only bathroom was upstairs. Yeah, that sounds terrible.   Speaker 2  19:20   Another analogy that's too great, or something I experienced when people think that two bedrooms must be inherently less desirable than three. Kind of connecting to one versus two bathrooms. When I managed that a class high rise, I had a waiting list for my studio apartments. It was the cheapest way that you could live in that neighborhood, period. And I had a three or four month waiting list for the studio apartments. I had a little more trouble renting the one bedrooms and the most trouble renting the penthouse, frankly. And my point with that is that if you price it right, it will always work. You know, if my studios were the same price as my one bedrooms, and of course. Course, I would not have had a waiting list for them. And you know, we have that super unusual lifetime occupancy guarantee mid south it's that, you know, if your property is ever vacant for more than 90 days, we start paying your rent on the 91st day. And I'm often explaining to people that's not us actually being an insurance policy, though it's real, it's in writing, we will pay you if that happens. But what I'm really telling you is that these rents are real. The rent price is meant to perform, and that that's the point. Anything rents well and stays well rented if you price the rent correctly.   Keith Weinhold  20:33   Well, that's an excellent point. We're talking about conventional investor wisdom and the operations of rental properties for investors, with Terry Kerr and Liz Nowlin from mid south homebuyers more than we come back, including is saying yes to pets worth it. This is Get Rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold   hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine, at Ridge lending group NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start Now while it's on your mind@ridgelendinggroup.com That's ridgelendinggroup.com   Oh geez, the national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings, so your bank is getting rich off of you. You've got to earn way more, or else you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation, let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk, your cash generates up to a 10% return and compounds year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25k you keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back, their decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And you know how I'd know, because I'm an investor in this myself, earn 10% like me and GRE listeners are text FAMILY to 66866, to learn about freedom, family investments, liquidity fund, on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text FAMILY to 66866   John Lee Dumas  22:37   this is Entrepreneur on Fire, John Lee Dumas. Don't follow money. Make money. Follow you with get rich education.    Keith Weinhold  22:56   Welcome back to get rich education. We're talking about efficient operations for real estate investors and the properties that they choose to put into their portfolio, and some of those trade offs with mid south home buyers Terry Kerr and Liz Nowlin. And one thing that seems to be increasingly popular, it sure isn't waning in the past few decades, is the prevalence of pets and tenants that apply and have a pet on there. So there are a lot of pros and cons here. What are your thoughts about pets? Is it worth it or not?    Terry Kerr  23:28   It's worth it as long as you know what pet is going into the property and you charge a pet fee, amen.   Speaker 2  23:36   I'm a dog lover personally. So I was a renter. I was a good renter with a dog, but you do run into the people I experienced this, where they had the one horror story, and they're like, I never want a pet environmental property again at the end of the day. And that's where you go into what type of pet and a non refundable pet deposit. But what you lose by excluding such a huge percentage of the population from retain your home is going to outweigh the risk of the one off bad pet owner.   Terry Kerr  24:11   I agree.   Keith Weinhold  24:12   We also get into questions of what's legal here. If one does say yes to pets, you mentioned a non refundable pet deposit, why don't you talk to us about the amount of that deposit in relation to the rent, and then can you, or do you also charge more rent monthly in addition to the non refundable pet deposit   Terry Kerr  24:33    we charge a $250 non refundable pet fee, and that it tends to cover any issues with the pet but one of The things that I'll kind of piggyback on, what Liz said, is, not only are you excluding a large portion of the market, but we find that folks with pets, they just tend to stay in the property longer. I don't know why that is. I can look at my portfolio. I've not like examined all the houses that were managed. Thing, but I know that from with my portfolio, folks that get into the property with pets. I don't know why, but they just tend to stay longer.    Liz Nowlin  25:07   I may have just had luck, but I have not had any significant pet damages from any of my renters with pets and and kind of more stable, stable folks sometimes. So I think it's worth it. You always understand the person that had the kind of the one bad story, but I really think you could mitigate it.    Keith Weinhold  25:23   How about hiking up the rent amount for pets?    Terry Kerr  25:23   We have not done that. It's not something that we've ever done before. I guess it's kind of a if it ain't broke, don't fix it, you know. But we want to be able to provide as much value as we can to the resident to have the leases renew. And so everything that we do, from a rehab standpoint and a property management standpoint, is geared towards resident renewal. I'm not saying we couldn't get maybe an extra 25 bucks a month, but at some point you cause yourself a longer vacancy because you're trying to find someone who's wanted to pay more because they have a pet or may not renew the lease, because they can find some place to go where the rent is cheaper and they're not being charged pet rent, if you will.    Liz Nowlin  25:25   We charge pet rent at my a class high rise that I managed for a long time. You know, it's not 100% No, it's people complained bitterly about it. I think a pet deposit. Just they stomach it a little bit better. The theme of the show might be, there's a lot of different ways to skin the cat. I got more pushback about that rent charge working directly with the renties than kind of anything else. So I would say we should up the non refundable before we layer it onto the monthly personally   Keith Weinhold  26:37   yeah, if it's paid one time, it seems to be less of an annoyance over time and forgotten. When we talk about pets and think about the long term, after a tenant with a pet moves out, can the place really be adequately cleaned for the next tenant? We know a lot of people are sensitive with allergies today.   Terry Kerr  26:56   Well, fortunately, we bought our own carpet cleaning van. We know what we're doing in regards to, you know, cleaning carpets, and so absolutely you can clean them. I mean, don't get me wrong, there's always going to be like the one off every once in a blue moon, but definitely, you know, we're not throwing the baby out with the bath water there. And fortunately, we're able to mitigate that smells with the right chemicals and our own carpet cleaning van. It's rare that we have that issue.   Keith Weinhold  27:22   Well, the other thing is, is that you're a turnkey real estate investing company, and for listeners that don't know what that means is you basically fix and flip properties at scale and sell them to investors. So what you do in that case, then, is you're using those resilient finishes that can stand up to pets better than if maybe a person were just doing this small scale on their own accord.    Terry Kerr  27:45   That is true. So I can't really speak to what other property management companies experience or other individuals, but I do know that that's what we've done to mitigate the risk, and again, like I said, increase the likelihood of a lease renewal, that's the name of the game, right?   Keith Weinhold  28:02   Saying yes to pets sure does increase your chances. And Terry and Liz, the three of us, have all been active real estate investors ourselves for quite a long time. And when we became real estate investors, new build properties, especially in the turnkey space, really weren't much of a thing, but today they are. There are build to rent communities and more. And you yourself, there have been more involved in new builds, although renovated properties is sort of your bread and butter business, but now that you've done both for a while, what are your thoughts with how you advise investors? Is the premium on new construction worth it? Are you just paying really upfront for the maintenance that you'd have on an existing property? So what are your thoughts with new versus renovated property?   Liz Nowlin  28:46   I love that. So you know, if anybody goes to our website right now and looks at the available properties, you'll see some really gorgeous houses mixed in with our already pretty houses with a new construction label across the front of that exterior photo, and you're going to see beautifully updated kitchens. Our renovated kitchens are also super nice. But I get that question, you are going to pay a little bit more for a new build than a renovated property? And you know, Terry and I talked about it, there's a really cool, detailed 15 year pro forma that you can look at with every property. And we did turn up the appreciation for a new construction house. And of course, nobody has a crystal ball, but I really think that will hold true for our properties only. We actually didn't change the maintenance metrics solely because our renovated houses have all new roof, all new furnace, all new air condenser, all new water heater, and they're just as new on the renovated properties as the new construction for our renovations. We're replacing all the any galvanized plumbing, you know. We're doing so much new I think maybe we could change it by a half of a percent or something, you know, but we actually didn't change it because. Because of the depth of the renovation on our properties. Now I am planning to have my next purchase from mid south homebuyers be a new construction home. There's the premium on the front end for me, my thought, and again, this gets into individual investor strategies, but my son is three years old. I plan to leave my entire portfolio to him, and my simple thought about it is that, you know, I have wonderful performing properties, the oldest of which was built in 1927 actually, and a lot of my renovated. It's a gorgeous one, by the way, a beautiful neighborhood, and it's been a great property for me. A lot of my inventory was built in the 60s and 70s. But when I think about Rhett, my son, baby, selling a house in 30 years. I have a feeling that 2024, build is going to do him very well. What kind of buy and hold investor Are you? Are you a 15 year or you will leave them to your kids? That's an angle to think about for sure.    Keith Weinhold  30:55   Well, actually, that's a great next thing to talk about the investor life cycle in the life cycle of a property that's in your portfolio. Talk to us more about when the right time is to sell an investment property. I mean, should we just buy and hold forever and leave it to our children, or is there an ideal exit time? So from your perspective, why don't you talk to us some more about that timing?    Terry Kerr  31:18   And again, that's just going to be case by case, we've got folks that'll sell a house to put their kids through college. We have had folks to sell their houses when they need to move their parents into assisted living, folks that'll sell their houses when they're looking at retiring. It's typically, life happens and you've got that equity there, and when the time is right to tap it, it's nice to know it's there    Liz Nowlin  31:44   lot of different ways to look at it. I've actually toured with selling my 1927 house in the next year or two, before that magic 100 year mark. Yes, for people, you know, and is that gonna do things? But really it's been a great little performer for me. I talk to investors so frequently, and I've heard more than one seasoned investor tell me they wish they'd never sold a single house they ever sold. Just wish, they wish they could hit a button and own everything they'd ever owned. And I'm a die hard buying holder, but I don't think there's a magic time in the sense of, you know, a question I get, maybe some from sometimes a newer investor is, when will my house need another renovation like the one you just did? And the answer is never right. We're going to cosmetically bring it back up between every renter every time. And so you're really just left working with the individual lifespans of those big components, right? And those are relatively staggered out, with maybe a water heater at the shortest, at a roof at the longest. And I think for the most part, this might vary per market. And Terry, I'd like to know your thoughts, but I think genuinely, you'll probably get a higher price by spending the money to replace versus selling for less having not replaced that item. You know. Say, trying to say, Okay, I'm going to sell in my roof is 29 years old, is probably better just replace it.   Terry Kerr  33:04    Yep, I agree. Because you know, if I'm a buyer and I'm maybe not a flipper, but a buyer, and I'd rather buy a house and spend 100,000 bucks on a house that has a new roof, than buy a house for $94,000 with an old roof. Because I know that old roof, if it leaks, it can cause a lot more damage than just the cost of replacing the roof. So I agree.    And from an ROI perspective, if I'm a financed investor, which about 80% of our investors are, I'm financing that new roof when I buy it with a mortgage, and I'm a great point pay out of pocket the next year. So that's a rub. And then very specific, of course, to our clientele. Terry, how much does it cost us to put a new roof on 1000 square foot house? 4500 bucks. That's we're putting on 700 new roofs a year. The roofers are paid by us by the hour. We are buying the shingles in bulk. And on top of that, we don't mark up maintenance and materials for our investors. So for that one story, 1000 square foot house, that's what my investor cost for us to put a new roof on for them is going to be but a potential buyer is going to look at that home and think it's a $7,000 roof that was great   Keith Weinhold  34:17   to learn about how you renovate properties for investors between tenancies there, so that properties don't get excessively dated. And we've been talking about a lot of the physical things that go into a property with that investor deciding what their exit strategy is going to be. Another thing that informs me are the numbers. When I get to about 40% equity on a property, I know my leverage ratio has now been cut down to two and a half to one, and that's when I look to do something maybe a 1031, tax deferred exchange. Or alternately, if it's a property that I really like, do the cash out refinance, get a tax free windfall with the cash out refinance, and get to hold on to the property at the same time. So of course, that's another way to approach it From the number side, rather than so much the physical side. But there sure is a lot to consider there. And you brought up heirs as well. This has been a great chat about the operations of a property, and just how you advise investors in there. Is there maybe any other question that comes up from investors a lot of times with how they should approach a property and the pros and cons within   Liz Nowlin  35:22   we've seen a lot of great growth, but when we're newer into a neighborhood that we've just kind of started putting our foot in as we stay we meaning mid south home buyers renovating and escalating those properties. That's where we've seen some of the biggest rent jumps and some of the biggest depreciation jumps, but it was kind of one of the lesser, prettier neighborhoods when we first offered that home to that investor, just kind of wrapping your head around all the different nuances to account for   Terry Kerr  35:49   yep, buying the path of progress. And fortunately, we've been able to create some of that progress in the neighborhoods that we've worked in throughout the years.    Keith Weinhold  35:56   If you're not sure where the path of progress is, and you buy on the line. A lot of times, you are the one that is creating that path of progress, and you've got enough bandwidth and volume in there to have actually done that on a number of occasions. How about something actionable? So many of our listeners have become investors there with mid south homebuyers. I imagine it is over 100 by now. So tell us about what you're doing, where you're active, between Memphis and Little Rock, renovated, new build. Really, where's the opportunity for an investor today?   Liz Nowlin  36:31   I'm pretty proud of us. I'll admit we just closed out 2024 having sold 680 houses. Wow. To investors, many of your listeners, and we're very careful. We've always done a little bit more every year. We don't buy everything we could buy. I always say my acquisitions team is not out there thinking about me and my wait list. One of my favorite sayings of Terry's is, you know, pigs get fat, Hogs get slaughtered. And I love the slow, careful way that we do things, but it was still pretty cool to do 680 we're still about, I'd say 75% Memphis, Tennessee, 25% Little Rock.   Terry Kerr  37:09   Yes, that's about, right? I would say also probably about maybe 15% new construction on 85% rehabs, maybe 20% new construction now, yeah   Liz Nowlin  37:20   And our sweet spot is still, well, still, it's that 100,000 to 200,000 that that window has slowly moved up through the years, very much to the benefit of investors as their investment seasons with time. I think we were 46,000 to 86,000 when I started in 2009 so been awesome to see the growth Memphis and Little Rock has had and so yeah, we're still kind of cash flow first appreciation is the icing on the cupcake. There are cupcakes have had more icing than we ever anticipated. If you go to midsouthhomebuyers.com and click on those available properties, they are under contract to investors at the top of the wait list, but they are identical to the houses I will have for anyone that is listening. We're so formulaic, 365 days a year, the cheapest house I may ever have is on that website. The same for the most expensive. We have just kind of figured out what works, and we hit it hard. And you can see the running theme with the kitchens and everything else.   Keith Weinhold  38:22   Well, congratulations on the total volume that you did last year. That's almost two homes a day, including weekends and holidays and everything else. That's really terrific. Yes, I, for the listeners here, have often, over the years, made these examples using a 100k property, but inflation and appreciation has also made it such that I can't do that anymore, maybe, just maybe in Memphis and Little Rock, I still can for a decent rehabbed property in a pride of ownership neighborhood for as little as 100k and that's one reason why so many investors have made mid south home buyers the place that they go for their First ever Income Property across state lines. They really know how to serve that audience, and you've been doing that for our audience for more than a decade now, and you continue to have this really robust interaction with investors. Liz, you do a lot of phone calls with people. You're really proud about what you do there. So proud that you offer field trips,   Speaker 2  39:19   please. I hope folks come so many folks never do so. If for anyone that prefers to do it from your living room, you are in the 95% norm if you never come to town. But man, it pushes folks confidence through the roof. So many of my investors are from high cost of living areas where you cannot get a parking spot in a war zone for the price that we are selling fully renovated houses, we have a deposit taken for a renter from every house I ever offer that really is cash flow from day one, and folks will really see the neighborhoods and that. I can't stress that enough. In fact, one thing that happens so if folks come up, you can sign up for the tours right on the website. It's on the far right, says, come visit us. This, you'll see a drop down with all the dates we do, monthly tours in Memphis and quarterly tours in Little Rock the day before. So you can come out and hit both. You kind of do a Thursday, Friday tour. You'll tour facilities. You'll see the warehouse and all that kind of stuff that I'll find. You know, our vans, we pull it, throw everybody in vans. We're listening to Memphis music and talking the whole tour, and people will want to pour out of that van right into the house. And I actually back everybody back out. I back them back into the front yard. I want to talk to you there and say, look left, look right. This is $120,000 neighborhood. Y'all. I can send you photos of the inside of the house all day, and you're going to get the same great house whether you buy from your living room. But I love it when people get to see that. I'll go ahead and say we do give gift cards to the best barbecue in town at the end of the tour, in addition to a $500 closing cost credit, just as a thank you for coming out and yeah, I love the tours.   Keith Weinhold  40:53   I really appreciate the two of you. Here we are, the three of us, more than a decade after we started talking about the properties and what you offer investors here, and it's just rare to have continuity like that. You can learn more at midsouthhomebuyers.com Terry and Liz, it's been valuable as always.   Terry Kerr  41:13   Thanks so much, Keith. Always enjoy it   Keith Weinhold  41:15   when we talked about pets, did Liz say something about skinning the cat? That would have to be one of the worst pet policies that I have ever heard of. And yeah, I think that long term, you know, the three bed, two bath style that has been so popular in rentals. But today, there are fewer occupants per household than there was 10 years ago and 20 years ago. Okay, that has long been a national trend. So in a lot of instances, two bedrooms can be better than three and one bathroom can be better than two, especially in that case of a sole occupant. And do you know where your best feedback is gonna come from? From what would most improve your unit's appeal to the market? It is not an online resource at all. It is from a showing where your tenant prospect did not want your unit. They know they are in the market. In fact, they are more aware and in tune with the market than you are, because they might have looked at, say, five units in just the last two days, and they might have done that in person. So they will tell you why they did not want the unit, whether the rents too high, or they don't like the parking situation, or your place needs to be closer to the train station, or your only bathroom is upstairs, something that reduced appeal for some of my own properties in the past. But yeah, this, I'll call it an exit interview of your prospective tenant. I mean, that is valuable, or you can have your manager do it well, the one place that really knows what tenants and investors want is with Terry and Liz there. That's why they have been in business since 2002 with 1000s of investors like you. And it's also why when there is an investor wait list for their properties, and you get to the top of the wait list and close on your property, so many investors just get right back in line on the bottom of their list and work the way up again for their next property. They get lots of repeat business. You can do this too. Get started at midsouthhomebuyers.com Until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.   Speaker 3  43:49   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively,   Keith Weinhold  44:17   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, get rich, education.com      

Get Rich Education
539: Short-Term Rentals, Mid-Term Rentals, and Hotel Investing with Robert Helms

Get Rich Education

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 3, 2025 46:24


Professional real estate investor, author and host of “The Real Estate Guys” Radio Show, Robert Helms joins us to discuss the nuances of mid-term, short-term rentals, and hotel real estate investing.  They highlight the impact of interest rates on single-family home affordability and the role of institutional investors.  Mid-term rentals cater to travelers like traveling nurses and digital nomads, offering higher monthly rents. Short-term rentals face challenges due to oversupply, but can be profitable with strategic planning. Hotels offer consistent experiences, with key metrics like occupancy and ADR.  Resources: Join Keith and other faculty experts at the Investor Summit at Sea, a unique networking and learning event for real estate investors. Let the event organizers know if you want to have dinner with Keith during the event. Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/539 GRE Free Investment Coaching:GREmarketplace.com/Coach For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai    Keith Weinhold  0:01   welcome to GRE I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, surprising facts about the institutional ownership share of the rental market. Then learn from a great guest tonight about how the midterm and short term rental models work and hotel real estate investing. Then you are invited to join us both on the most special real estate event that I've ever been a part of, and I'm going to return to it today on get rich education.   Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being the flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com   Corey Coates  1:17   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  1:33   Welcome to GRE from London, UK to London, Ontario and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith weinholden, you are inside this week's episode of Get rich education, where we aren't day trading, we are decade trading with gradual patient wealth accumulation through income properties, yet with a path that lets you live the good life of options and freedom when you're still young enough to enjoy it. Now, the shorter the period of time that your guest or your tenant stays at your place, the more that the word hospitality gets involved. Hospitality, that word has little to do with hospitals. It almost means the opposite. Hospitality means that you're now giving a warm reception to or entertaining guests or tenants. Well, that's something that you rarely do at a long term rental, but you do if you're a hotel real estate investor for sure, or maybe even a little in a short term rental, then you're in hospitality like valet parking, having a restaurant, a pool with a swim up bar, a gym, a concierge desk, or even having a lobby with travel desks of various tour companies. Right there. That's hospitality, and today as we discuss mid term rentals, then short term rentals, then hotel real estate investing, think about how the level of hospitality that you give increases as the duration of a guest or tenant stay decreases. Hospitality is one reason that long term rental rates for durations of, say, a year or more, well, they had the lowest daily rates and the least hospitality. And hotels with, say, a two night stay, have the highest daily rates and the most hospitality.    This week's show is presented by ridge lending group and freedom family investments. I mean Ridge is where I get all of my investment property loans, and where I do all of my refinancings. And perhaps you should, too, because they specialize in working with investor borrowers there, so they know just what you need and what you don't Ridge lending group.com, and then freedom family investments, that's where you can make a private money loan and get a higher yield than you can with a high yield savings account. That's where I invest a share of my own liquid funds for a passive 8% return, 10% return. And now this is new. They've got offerings at 12% or more. You can learn more by texting family to 66866, next, we discuss mid term rentals, short term rentals and hotel real estate investing.   This week, I'd like to welcome in a good long time real estate friend. He's been on the show here with you and I before. Besides being a deeply experienced real estate investor, he also hosts the terrific real estate guys radio show, which was a substantial influence on the launch of GRE more than 10 years ago. I mean, how many times have I suggested to you over the years that you give his show a listen? He also speaks with some of the best pipes in the industry. Hey, it's great to have back on the show this week, the incomparable Robert Helms.   Robert Helms  5:07   Hey, Keith, so good to see you. Thanks for having me back.   Keith Weinhold  5:11   Let me share with you. Robert is on a very short exclusive list of people that I credit for being where I am today, from how to host a professional show to being a Go Giver and Robert before we discuss mid and short term rentals in the long term rental world generally, just what's important to know in today's residential real estate market, you can take that anywhere you like.   Robert Helms  5:38   Well, I think the big picture has been all about the loans and the interest rates, right? We saw rates go up, not only a lot, but quickly, and then kind of come back down a bit. Now they're headed back up, and that just has a big effect on single family homes, primarily to folks who are living in the homes, because they'll make that decision based on the affordability of their mortgage payment and the rest of the costs investors Well, you know, we think a little differently. We're not limited by a specific interest rate will pay? If I can make 9% would I pay 6% sure, if I can make 9% would I pay 7% well, I might, and so on. So I think that that's something to watch this year. For sure. There's lots of reasons to expect that we're not going to see interest rates get back down into the twos and threes and fours like we wish they would stay. Probably shouldn't happen in the first place, but you and I took advantage of it, and lots of your listeners did as well. But I think that's kind of a big picture thing. And then the other part of it is, you know, the inventory. So when people have this locked in effect, which really doesn't have anything to do with their needs or wants, they have a new job or they have another child and they want to move to a couple of notches up in a neighborhood, they don't want to get rid of their 3.12% loan and have to buy another property with 7% so we see less people moving, therefore less inventory, total inventory now somewhere just around 700,000 or below, and that's lower than it's been for the average of the last 10 years. For sure, I think that has an effect, less people are moving because of the interest rates. But at the same time, you know, there are houses that trade every single day. People do have to move. They have life situations and so forth. And then real estate investors, of course, we just look for opportunity. If we can make a spread and we can be in a property long term where the tenant pays down our mortgage and not us, well, then we're interested at almost any interest rate.   Keith Weinhold  7:44    Yes, that interest rate lock in effect will persist another year. That continues to get diluted over time. Of course, though you and I both know that mortgage rates are still below their historic rate, but because of the recency bias, no one's really acting that way. By the way, the first ever rental property I bought had a six in three eights percent mortgage rate 20 years ago, and people were raving about what an incredibly low rate that was back then. But this constrains supply. And another thing that constrains available supply in today's market is more institutional players own rental property today we're talking about outfits like invitation homes and even the California State Teachers Retirement System. But one thing a lot of people don't seem to realize is that institutions like this own less than 1% of single family homes in the United States, and that's all institutions combined. And now if you just isolate that to single family rental properties, they still only own two to 3% so where we have this period of low supply and low affordability, you know, Robert, I think institutions, in a lot of these media headlines, they tend to get scapegoated or being a boogeyman. Oh, all these big players are buying up the homes, and that's why you can't buy one. But really, that's pretty overblown. So can you talk to us more about what the institutional entry into the real estate investing space has been like, which really picked up steam after the GFC about 15 years ago?    Robert Helms  9:16   Yeah, it sure did. I think that folks who were managing big sums of money, and the institutional money comes from all kinds of places, real estate, Investment Trusts, insurance, pensions, funds, and then just big old companies that decide to raise money to go do something, and that money saw opportunity said, hey, you know what? This is a short term anomaly, all these prices that went down after 2008 and 2009 and when a lot of mom and pop investors were very hesitant to touch the third rail of buying more property after what they had just been through, these institutions are like that. Institutional money is not very emotional, right? It's just looking at the numbers at the same time where the nuances of institutional funds is that they also didn't have a ton of real estate experience, and so it was quite common for a couple of years that an institution would come in, and they would typically work through local brokers, and those brokers would know the market a bit. But if you could generalize, you would say that a lot of institutions overpaid. But here's the thing, when you overpay in the moment, you don't really notice that in the long term real estate investment that these guys did, it's interesting. I've been to a couple of conferences I go to almost every year that 10 years ago was mom and pop investors. And today it's a lot of suits, not too many ties. They don't send. Tend to wear ties, but a lot of suits, a lot of folks working for various levels of these funds, and they're looking at real estate as an asset class. Now I'm going to argue their real estate's not an asset class like any other, because every share of stock, every ounce of gold, every barrel of oil that anybody buys, is discretionary. You never have to invest in the stock market, in the bond market and cryptocurrency, but you cannot sit out the real estate market. From an economic perspective, I don't have to own real estate, but I'm going to have to interact financially. And so it really doesn't operate like other quote, unquote, asset classes, but I think the big folks did figure out is that there is stability in real estate. There's not the efficiency they would like, and that's a good thing for us. We like inefficiencies in the real estate market, but more and more we are seeing funds being put together, even today, to acquire property. But to your point, and it's an excellent one, you see the headlines and you see the name calling of these big, faceless, nameless corporations. They're buying up all the inventory. They're not it is a drop in the bucket compared to what mom and pops own and will continue to own   Keith Weinhold  11:53    yes, and of course, I'm talking nationally. When I bring up those one two and 3% institutional share numbers, it's going to be lower in some areas, it tends to be a higher proportion of buying that the institutions do in Texas and also in a lot of southeastern markets, like Atlanta, Jacksonville, Charlotte and Tampa. Robert you have a good bit of knowledge and some involvement in the mid term rental market. We're talking about rentals of one to six months in duration. Here, can you talk to us about trends in the midterm rental market?   Robert Helms  12:25    Yeah, it's a fascinating area. You know, back in the day, these would be referred to as corporate rentals, so a corporation might lease an apartment and furnish it, and then they would have different people stay there over the years, so the corporation would be responsible for the lease. I had some tenants like this many, many years ago, and it wouldn't be up to me. It'd be up to them who had the keys at the time. And a tenant might stay six or seven months. A tenant might make four or five weeks their stay. And so the idea was they needed a place for these contractors who would come in and work for a period of time to stay. But hotels were a lot more expensive. Well today you see even the folks who got involved in short term rentals making a decision to invest in people like traveling nurses who come and stay for four to six weeks, or these clients who will come in and work for two months in this location, two months in this location, two months in another location. And so they will simply stay in a short term rental type of property for a longer term. And you know, the most expensive things when it comes to real estate or turnover in vacancy. So if we can get the tenant to stay longer and pay a bit of a premium, these are often furnished units, and they don't have to worry about much. And we've had a few opportunities where what started out as a three week rental turned into a six month rental, because sometimes when they bring these folks on these companies, don't know exactly how long they're going to stay, and it's been a great kind of marketplace. There's a few folks that specialize in it. But my experience is that a lot of the people that have gravitated towards midterm rentals used to be in the short term rental business, thinking they'd rent for one or two nights, and lo and behold, they get a client that would stay for a month, and they'd say, Hey, this is pretty cool.   Keith Weinhold  14:13   Some conversion rate there from short term rentals to these midterm rentals here, as Robert touched on, you do tend to get more monthly rent for a midterm rental than you do a conventional long term rental. You're going to have some experience for furnishing there. But Robert, you bring up a great point. You mentioned traveling nurses. And of course, here as real estate investors, we're often interested in who we're serving and what that demographic looks like. I also think of midterm rental clients or tenants as students in digital nomads, and oftentimes it's a person relocating where they just want to check out a place for a few months before they consider setting down roots in an area with a long term rental or buying their own place. So can you talk? More about the demographic that we're serving there, because oftentimes you want to follow their trends.   Robert Helms  15:04   Yeah, very much. So, you know, today, I think there's a lot of folks that can work from a variety of locations. They do need some things, they need quiet they need a good internet connection, but they will come and go for weeks at a time. And I also think that you see more and more employers looking to contract labor. They have a job to get done. They're not sure they want to bring on a full time employee with all the cost of benefits and onboarding and all that. So they find somebody in the niche that comes in for six or eight or 12 weeks at a time, and they're the perfect candidate for short term rental. But we also see folks that are between gigs. So I might have a six week gig, and three weeks later I have another six week gig, and the three weeks in the middle, I want to go somewhere that's kind of fun to hang out. And so you do see those kind of rentals as well.   Keith Weinhold  15:55   Are most long term property management companies open to managing midterm rentals?   Robert Helms  16:02   Yeah, good question. There are certainly those that are, but I think we're starting to see a specialty on the aggregator side, folks that are reaching out specifically to the kinds of people who are candidates for midterm rentals from the tenant side and looking to accumulate inventory. So that's been kind of a neat thing to watch. So the focus of most property managers, they're hired by the owner of the property. Well, these groups are really their their salary gets paid for by the tenant, and they're able to negotiate on the behalf of some of these groups, you know, a better rate, better terms. They may negotiate some flexibility and the time for these folks that don't know exactly how long they're going to stay, it's an interesting new area of management, for sure.   Keith Weinhold  16:52   Now, of course, we're concerned about a high occupancy rate in midterm rentals, just like we are any type of rental. What does one look for when it comes to advertising platforms. And this could be, you know, going beyond just a well known website. It might be, hey, if you have inroads with the local hospital system, oh, well, can you then funnel some of the traveling nurses, for example, into your midterm rental?   Robert Helms  17:15   Yeah, most definitely, it is a specialty niche, for sure, if you're after a robust rental solution. You know, many people in midterm rentals, like in short term rentals, the vast majority of short term rental owners are not making a killing. They are. They're liquidating some cost of what they consider their second home. So the average short term rental landlord has just one property, and that's a property they bought, probably not as a rental. They brought it as a second home, and they're discovering that when they're not there, they can lease it out, and that pays for some of the costs. But there are obviously a few folks who have cracked the code and figured out which markets and where the best opportunity is, and what size units it takes to maintain a really healthy occupancy, and it's the same for this midterm rental. It's a different kind of tenant. It's mostly not families, so it's not larger units with lots of bedrooms. It's also mostly not your higher end rentals with views of the water or up near ski resorts, it's in the bigger towns where there is employment, and that employment triggers most of the midterm rental business.   Keith Weinhold  18:29   You, as an investor owner, maybe your cash flow negative on your midterm rental or short term rental, however, you might be using it for a few weeks or months yourself and getting back more of the benefit that way you're listening to get rich education. We're talking with the host of the real estate guys radio show, Robert Helms, more when we come back, we discuss short term rentals, including, is there an air be in bust? I'm your host. Keith Weinhold,    hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine at Ridge lending group NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally, start now while it's on your mind at Ridge lendinggroup.com That's ridgelendinggroup.com.   Oh geez, the initial average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings, so your bank is getting rich off of you. You've got to earn way more, or else you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work. With minimum risk, your cash generates up to a 10% return and compounds year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% in your bank account, the minimum investment is. 25k you keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back. Their decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And you know how I'd know, because I'm an investor in this myself, earn 10% like me and GRE listeners are text family to 66866, to learn about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text family to 66866   Kristen Tate  20:39   this is author, Kristen Tate, listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.   Keith Weinhold  20:54   Welcome back to get rich education. We're talking about midterm short term rentals and hotels and hospitality with a long time friend of the show here, Robert Helms and Robert a few years ago, there seemed to be this word airbn bust that was beginning to be associated with Airbnbs. A lot of the difficulty in that market. So tell us, what was that all about, and where are we now with industry trends in the short term rental market?   Speaker 1  21:21    Yeah, great question, Keith. What I think happened is the allure of a short term rental, having a beautiful property that people would pay a premium on a nightly rate, sounded wonderful, and it was, and it worked for a lot of folks. But then what happened is, what happens people got the word, they got excited about it, and a lot of people started holding webinars, teaching classes, doing boot camps, and before you knew it, there was way more supply than there was demand. See, the hospitality industry is amazing. The hospitality industry employs 9% of all people in the world and accounts for nearly 9% of the GDP of our planet. Travel is a gigantic industry, and it's led by smart, big, storied institutions. So for folks to come and figure I'll just compete with them with my little apartment didn't necessarily turn out so well. So there was an airbn bust, and it is still lingering today. If you want to make a profit in short term rentals, you absolutely can, but you need to be super strategic. You need to think long and hard about where and what and why and how, because it's very specific. There are certain markets that short term rentals do very, very well, and there's a lot of markets, the majority of markets, where they don't. So as long as you're willing to study and take a look and be realistic and go kick the dirt a little bit, you certainly can get the upper hand. And the reason it's exciting is the average person who owns a short term rental is not professional in any way. They probably don't have too many other rental properties. It's not a big part of what they're paying attention to in their life. And they're simply trying to liquidate some of the costs of ownership. You know, I might rental here or rental there. And the way you can tell Home Away, VRBO, Airbnb, most of the hosts, the owners, make their calendars public, and so it's easy to tell how busy they are. It's amazing to me. I'll look at a marketplace and look at a property and see that month after month after month they're at a six to 8% occupancy, which I wouldn't be excited about myself, but for someone who's got a second home and they don't mind having people stay there for a few nights, they'll pay a premium for that. They legitimately can carve down a lot of their expenses just by renting six or eight or 10% of the time.    Keith Weinhold  23:58   Of course, the conventional guidance is before you buy a short term rental, you're really helping yourself out. If you have to fall back on turning that into a long term rental, it would cash flow. But of course, now you're really narrowing your criteria in what is going to work there. And Robert, when we talk about that demographic that we're serving, we touched on that in the midterm rentals. Who are we serving in short term rentals? I think conventionally, we think about vacationers and business travelers   Robert Helms  24:24   it's both of those things. I think that originally, people were certainly inspired by the vacation traveler who wanted to have a little more privacy, maybe their own kitchen, maybe a little more space for the dollar. And we still see that for a family, especially a family with small kids, staying at a hotel, ordering room service, eating in the restaurant, all that adds up. And if instead you can go to the grocery store and make breakfast at home, right, you can save the costs. And so there is definitely that clientele, but you also have people in short term rental that are visiting family. They're not really on vacation. In there, just going to an area for a short period of time. We see people that criss cross the country staying in short term rentals, two nights here, three nights there. And so it does have kind of a wide variety. A lot of the markets are very seasonal. Though. There are markets like Branson, Missouri that does really good at some parts of the year and not as well as other parts of the year. Then, of course, there's year round markets. So back to if I'm thinking about it with an investor's hat on, I want to be a little more specific, in particular about what and where I buy. But if I have single family house as my second home, maybe it's in a ski area, maybe it's in a beach area, and it's fairly expensive to maintain. Well, then considering renting it out on a short term basis might help the overall cost of maintaining that property.    Keith Weinhold  25:52   You know, my own personal experiences really started to get bad in short term rentals, when I would go stay in a place. And I think we've all seen those memes out there about, my gosh, I had to wash all the dishes and walk the owner's dog and still play some exorbitant cleaning fee. I think we've all kind of grappled with that at some point, but STRS are still a really viable investment for the majority of the operators. But yeah, Robert, most of my experiences in short term rentals recently, including showing up at a place where they had not done the turn. The cleaning person did not stop by. And, yeah, okay, they came over there properly. But it's like, you cannot unsee the mess that was left there before you were there. So I had a series of experiences lately that have actually steered me into staying in hotels more often. And hotels really fit my lifestyle pretty well. I like to work out at a gym. I like to have a gym on site. It's convenient to have a restaurant on site and so on. And you've been in the hospitality and hotel space serving that for a while. Why don't you talk to us about industry trends in hotels.    Robert Helms  27:03   Yeah. So travelers, to a great degree, love consistency. They want to be able to rely on cleanliness, on amenities, the very things you mentioned for sure. And so hospitality has a wide range, right? There's the lower end airport hotel where nobody stays more than a night, and it doesn't have a lot of amenities, and then there's the beautiful resort properties and everything in between. But what the hotel industry has done a good job of is providing a consistent experience, and that's what people crave more than anything else. You know, we would call a short term rental more of a unique or boutique or co chair kind of experience, and you don't know what you're going to get. You don't have that consistency. Some folks don't mind that, but for the majority, especially of business travelers, they want to know what they're getting. I can remember years ago, my sister wanted to take us on a family vacation to Maui. It sounded like a good idea. And then she was the one tasked with finding us a place, and decided we would stay at the Ritz Carlton and I looked at the Ritz Carlton website and said, Ah, you know, this is not exactly where I would probably stay in a she's a chiropractor. She says, in order for me to take a week off work, I'm losing $10,000 of the business. I'm not staying in some cheap hotel. I want to stay in a luxury hotel. And we did it, and it was fabulous, and I would stay again. So the point is, if you want to be able to work out, if you want to be able to have 24 hour room service, if you want grab and go that you don't have to walk outside in the cold or the heat, then hotels make a lot of sense, and it's not an either or. They're just both elements in hospitality. I would consider a short term rental property, a hospitality property, and I would consider a 1200 room, four and a half star hotel hospitality property as well.   Keith Weinhold  28:58   Sure. Of course, hotels aren't monolithic. There are so many different types. You might have a boutique hotel with a few dozen rooms to a large scale, something like you've been involved in. You've been in a large scale, ground up development for a hotel. And I don't know if you had a hope when you built your large hotel that a big chain like a Hilton or Marriott would buy it from you, or would brand it along with you. But that branding and that consistency of experience can be really important. That's something we especially associate with those larger hotels. So we have some of these things in mind. I mean, where does a new prospective hotel investor begin?   Robert Helms  29:40   Yeah, it's pretty difficult to get started, because the properties are big and expensive and risky upfront. So there's a terminology we use the hotel business, which is stabilization. And stabilization is when a hotel gets to the point where it's doing about the occupancy and rate that you would expect. Respect it too long term, and that might be anywhere from two to four years. Well, in the first year, boy, there's hardly anybody there. We have a 300 plus room hotel, and the first night we were open, we had two guests and 160 employees. So you don't have to be a rocket surgeon to figure out that that math doesn't work very well. Nor did it for the first month or the first year. Today, I'm happy to say it works a lot better, but you have to have patience. Now, there's a couple of ways you can get involved. Certainly, a smaller a boutique hotel. I stayed in a hotel a couple months ago that only had eight rooms. It was marvelous. And I thought, boy, you know, probably an individual owns this, but most of the hotel properties are owned by groups or syndications, and so that's another way to get exposure to hospitality. There's some things to love about hospitality, and to me, one of the same things I love about single families is you can find professional management, like folks that really know what they're doing, and create that guest experience that was perfectly possible for someone to buy a single family home as a rental. Maybe it's in their own town, and they want to manage it themselves. And you know, maybe at first that's a good idea, so you can figure out the game you've chosen, but ultimately, you want to hand that off to a professional, in my opinion. And in hospitality, like in multifamily, you have to, you have to have somebody come in with chops to be able to take care of it. And then there's the nuance of franchise which there are hotels that are just independently owned and operated. And then there's franchise hotels. And just like buying a franchise business, you pay a little more, but you get a lot. You get all the systems and the service and the training and the marks, and many cases, you get a big, dynamic engine that brings leads and fills your heads in your beds, which is what the metric we're interested in, in hospitality. And so when we started with thinking about it might make sense, the market we were in had no branded hotels, and we thought, Well, should we be the first? And after doing a bunch of research, I came to the conclusion that, well, it's going to cost something, and there's going to be a benefit, but I don't see it the benefit outweighing the cost. And we decided not to and then, lo and behold, through a strange set of circumstances, today, we are a branded hotel, and I'm thrilled about it. In hindsight, it was the right thing to do, but do understand that most real estate investors that I know are not going to qualify. It's pretty difficult to get a franchisee agreement with one of these hotel brands. You have to have some wherewithal, some experience. They're going to look at your assets and your balance sheet. They're going to look at more than you can imagine to make sure that you're worth betting on, that they'll put their story name on the outside of your hotel. But it does bring up another point in hospitality, which is there's just multiple streams of income in hospitality. I saw a study last year that showed that in the upper resort markets, the fancier hotels and markets you might go to that the average person whatever they spend on their nightly rate in the hotel, they spend 80 to 85% of that per day on all the other things associated with their stay. Now, some of those are going to be off campus, but the more that you can provide to the guests you've already brought onto the property, the more profitable it can be,   Keith Weinhold  33:25   from resort fees to valets and more. Yes, there certainly is plenty to add on there. Maybe the last thing in hotel investing is, if someone wants to get started, what should they even be looking at, as far as say, understanding some of the metrics, like rev Park. Can you give us a quick walk around that?   Robert Helms  33:45    Yeah, so  if you're used to investing in apartment buildings or single family houses, you've probably seen the basic income formula. You know how to calculate for loss to lease and maybe vacancy and those things. Well, there's just a few more intricacies when it comes to hospitality, but it's not that difficult if you just think that you're renting every night instead of every month or every year, and instead of having my turnover be one tenant every two years, it's one tenant every four days. There's just a lot more to pay attention to. And so the most important metrics in the hospitality industry are obviously occupancy, how many nights our rooms are occupied? And then ADR, which is average daily rate, and that is the rate for a particular unit type on average over some period of time, typically a year. And if you were to multiply occupancy times average daily rate, that gives you a revenue per available room or RevPAR. RevPAR can be affected, and it's the primary metric that we drive to in the two ways, you can increase occupancy to increase your RevPAR, but in many cases, you don't need to increase occupancy if. The market will allow you to raise your average daily rent. We've just gone through in the last year that our occupancy is down about 2% for the year, and our average daily rate is up more than 16% so the math works that follow me on this with slightly less wear and tear on the units our owners are making more money. So it is a balance. It's not like I want maximum occupancy. Well, not necessarily. Hardest thing to manage for any hotel is a sold out night. Sounds like a good idea, but you have no wiggle room, whereas when you've got even 3% vacancy and something goes wrong in the middle of the night with somebody's unit, you can get them moved somewhere down the hall, not somewhere across town. So I would say there are some really great resources. If someone's interested in hospitality. There's a big company called the hotel valuation systems, HVs, and they have a lot of great tutorial information available if you're really interested. Go to a conference, a hotel conference, and you'll pick up the lingo pretty quick and meet some of the folks that are in the business. It is, historically, one of the highest return properties, but also a lot of high costs, and again, expect some negative cash flow at the beginning.   Keith Weinhold  36:18   Yeah. Well, it was great. And you brought up something that I had not thought about before, about how 100% occupancy could actually introduce problems in the hotel space. And of course, there are a number of other things to consider, surge pricing, high seasons, low seasons, an awful lot that we don't think about when we're renting out single family homes one year at a time. Well, Robert, that's been a great walk around talking about the institutional space, midterm rentals, short term rentals and hotels, and you and I have a great collaboration coming up together. Why don't you tell our audience about it?   Robert Helms  36:55   Oh my gosh. I am so thrilled that you'll be joining us again for our 23rd annual Investor Summit at sea. This event we do once a year, and by its name, you can probably tell that the majority of it happens on a cruise ship. We spend two days in beautiful Miami at a great hotel, then we jump on a luxury cruise ship for seven days. On the days that we're at sea, it's workshops and seminars and panel discussions and round table lunch discussions and all kinds of fun. And on the sea day, on the land days, we go have a good time together. It's extraordinary. You've been with us before, and I'm super excited to have you back with us on faculty, and excited that we're going to get to brainstorm a little bit with a couple other podcasters. So some of the OGS are going to be on this particular summit.    Keith Weinhold  37:43   Yes, it is June 20 to 29th this year, where we spend the first two days on land in Miami, and then we spend a week cruising to the Bahamas, St Thomas in St Martin. We're doing it on a beautiful ship, the celebrity beyond. So as one of the faculty members, you'll get to see me do a 50 to 60 minute presentation, a couple of lunch, round table discussions. I might be on a panel or two, and also host a table for dinner each night where participants like you rotate around at the tables, and that way you get to chat directly with most or all of the faculty members. That way. Yes, Robert, I was there in 2016 as an attendee. It's great to finally come back as a faculty member. I will be putting the second pepper on the necklace.   Robert Helms  38:29   All right. Well, it's gonna be a ton of fun. And the great thing about it is we have people from all over the world that come and you get in these awesome conversations. You know, you go to a one day or two days seminar, and you get to connect with some people, but boy, and this week, you're going to have a chance to meet all kinds of folks. And the faculty is amazing. Our mutual friend Ken McElroy will be back with us for his 12th year. Peter Schiff's going to be back with us again. We've got the George gammon coming. Brian London, who runs the New Orleans investment conference that you and I usually rub shoulders at, and ton more, just a really great time. And if you're serious about collapsing time frames, you can get more done in nine days on the Investor Summit that you can probably get of two years of just haphazardly going to conferences and watching webinars and listening to podcasts   Keith Weinhold  39:18   you will see what we mean if you attend, about putting a pepper on the necklace and what that is all about. I can tell you from attending in 2016 just one previous appearance there. It is the greatest real estate event that I have ever attended. It's really immersive. It's really fun. Of course, you get off on these ports, and there's a beach component to it as well. It's not a low cost event, but as I like to say, it's not cheap, but neither are you.   Robert Helms  39:50   It is an investment, that's for sure. I think it's important that you approach it that way, right? As investors, we demand a return. On our investment, and you should do that on the summit. Don't just show up and have a party time. That'll be great. It'll be fun. But be strategic about who you want to meet, who you want to hang out with, and who you want to learn from. The faculty is like no other. We'll have at least 15 faculty members. There's a couple more that we're working on, whose names you would know, but we are not ready to announce yet, but it's going to be so much fun. Oftentimes, the best people you meet, you meet at dinner, or you meet at the beach, or you meet out on deck. So we'd love to have you join us and tell you what, if someone is listening to your show, Keith, and they would love to have dinner with you. All they have to do is let us know that when they register say, you know, I want a chance to have meal with Keith, and I think we can make that happen.    Keith Weinhold  40:45   Oh, that's great. And, you know, Robert, it's rare. It's the type of event where, even though it's been nine years since I was there, you developed such a close kinship with the like minded attendees that, you know, I might see a some of it's a Facebook friend now, you know, Steve or Dave or something. And I'll always remember, oh yeah, I met Steve on real estate guys Investor Summit to see it's almost like a relationship you would have with, like, a long ago high school classmate, to be around each other for nine days and all these places. It just kind of brings this different element to it. You can learn more at Investorsummitatsea.com, and get registered there. You can see my smiling face in the faculty section along with the other faculty members. Remember, it's really about all the other people that you meet. You have any last thoughts about the terrific Investor Summit at Sea Robert?   Robert Helms  41:36    I would just say that in life, we tend to regret the things that we don't do a lot more than the things that we do. So get on board. You'll have an amazing time. No matter how great we say it is. It's better than that. It's like summer camp for the affluent, summer camp. As a kid, you didn't want to go, you weren't sure, and by the end, you were lifelong buddies. It's like that. It's investing on steroids. The photo ops are amazing, and you'll meet super cool people, plus you'll get the hangout with Keith and I. So I would say join us for the 23rd annual investors Summit.   Keith Weinhold  42:14   There's wisdom out there that says you should say no to more things in life, and in one tranche, that makes sense, and you also need to say yes to more things in life that fits the category. Here with the Great Investor Summit at Sea I really anticipated. It's one of my biggest events of the year. And Robert, it's been great having you back on the show.   Robert Helms  42:35   Thanks so much, Keith, and appreciate your listeners. Listening in today. Don't quit your Daydream    Keith Weinhold  42:42   Well, said.   Next week on the show, we talk about how to streamline the operations at your rental properties. Is it better to own rental property with, say, two bathrooms rather than one, or is that just another faucet that can leak and shower that can leak and toilet that can clog, and the pros and cons of allowing your tenant to have a pet in your rental unit, it's those sort of operational things and more that we help you improve next week right here on The GRE podcast, it's interesting about investing in a hotel to such a large scale that you can court major franchise branding, like with Hilton, Marriott Wyndham or Hyatt, which Robert has successfully done. And I have visited that property of his with him in person, and it's amazing what he's done there. And you know something, I have rarely met an American, or any global resident that is averse to staying at a branded hotel. I mean, that only seems to be an attractant. Now in the US, some people, they used to dislike franchise restaurants. I even remember people saying, Hey, we don't need another chain restaurant in my town. But I've never seen people scorn chain hotels and today, I mean, in the here and now, people seem to want both franchise restaurants and hotels. I mean today, you're more likely to hear something like hey. When is our town getting a Chick fil A? Why don't we have one yet? And of course, there is plenty of opportunities in these shorter term stay spaces without ever attracting a branding deal, major thanks to the terrific Robert helms today for his keen insight on shorter term rental real estate. This event, June's investor summon at sea is such a good time, and Robert really knows how to host it and make sure you have a good time. After doing it for more than 20 years, it is a rich, immersive experience with people, places, learning and. And relationship building. It's the type of experience that you just can't get from an Instagram reel. It does draw attendees worldwide, although most attendees were from the US when I was there that one previous time. When you register, if you want to make sure that you get dinner with me, let them know, and we'll make it happen, because we know that you haven't heard enough of my voice every single week for more than a decade now, right? In my opinion, it is the crown jewel of world real estate investing events start at Investorsummitatsea.com until next week. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.   Speaker  45:46   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively.   Keith Weinhold  46:14   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com  

Get Rich Education
538: Listener Q&A, The Insane Canadian Housing Crisis

Get Rich Education

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 27, 2025 45:00


Keith answers listener questions about getting started in real estate investing with limited funds and how to determine the true appreciation of a property against inflation. He also discusses: The impact of the LA wildfires on housing needs and some landlords raising rents excessively. Economic and housing challenges facing Canada, including high inflation and unaffordable home prices. And highlights the views of likely future Canadian Prime Minister Pierre Poilievre on addressing these issues. GRE Free Investment Coaching:GREmarketplace.com/Coach For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/538 Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai    Keith Weinhold  0:01   welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, I answer three of your listener questions, then learn why LA area landlords got a bad name during this month's awful Southern California wildfires. Finally, why Canadians cannot buy houses anymore, and what lessons you can learn from Canada's real estate mistakes and the abject lunacy there today on get rich education.   Unknown Speaker  0:30   Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being the flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com   Unknown Speaker  1:16   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  1:32   Welcome to GRE from Gatlinburg, Tennessee to Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are inside this week's installment of the program known as get rich education, I'm grateful that you're here, but you're not here for me. You are here for you. So let's talk about you and some of the listener questions that you wrote into the show about and as usual, whenever I have a batch of listener questions, I answer the beginner level questions first and then move on to more advanced questions. The first one comes from Jeanette in Seaford, Delaware. Jeanette asks, I only have a little money to invest in real estate. How do I get started with just a small amount of money. All right, Jeanette, well, first I would talk to a lender. You have to talk to a mortgage specialist or a loan officer to find out what you qualify for. You're basically getting them to punch holes into your financial picture. And then that way, Jeanette, you will know what holes to go, mend, so your loan officer is essentially giving you a free troubleshooting session. Now, our investment coaches here at GRE help you with some of that, but GRE doesn't originate loans, so you want to get with someone like a ridge lending group for help. And now, what are some of the holes that a mortgage lender might poke into your finances? Jeanette, well, getting your credit score up and they'll help you with that strategy. Or you simply need more dollars in savings, in what your mortgage loan underwriter calls reserves, or you might need to establish a two year job history, or you have to say, Pay off your car loan in order to get your debt to income ratio lower, or whatever it is. And since at GRE marketplace, the least expensive income property is probably about $120,000right now, a number that keeps going up with inflation. But what you would need is 23 to 25% of that between your down payment and closing costs, all right? Jeanette, so then about 28 to 30k that is the minimum lump of cash that you'll need to buy a property that is already fixed up and ready for a tenant, and that is a great way to start in real estate investing if you want to maintain your standard of living, okay, that is therefore the lowest entry point that you can do that. But if you're temporarily willing to let your quality of life slide for a couple years and maybe live communally. You can put as little as 3% down on a primary residence and then rent out the other rooms. Okay, that's the house hacking model, but depending on your setup, you know, maybe you're sharing a kitchen with roommates or suitemates, and therefore that temporary loss in quality of life. Maybe you can even Airbnb at a short term rental, in which case you will be buying the furniture. However, now with a 3% down payment on an owner occupied house, hack like that, you're probably going to have to pay a PMI premium, a private mortgage insurance premium of a few $100 per month. But still, this does get you in with very little money, since that's what you're asking about Jeanette. And finally, the third thing I'll bring up here is that you can get a combination of maintaining your standard of living and putting a small down payment on a property by using an FHA loan and three and a half percent down. And you can do that with a single family home, duplex, triplex or four Plex, living in one unit and renting out the others. So yes, you get both this way, but I will not go into the details on the FHA, because I have described that in detail on other episodes since it's how I started out myself. But there are a number of options right there for you to inquire about Jeanette, all starting with an investment centric mortgage lender like Ridgelendinggroup.com.     The next question comes from Jared in Pocatello, Idaho. Jared asks Keith, in the past year, my duplex in Pocatello went up in value 5% from 400k to 420k. How do I know how much of that 5% is true appreciation, and what portion of the 5% is from inflation? Oh, that is such a devastatingly cool question Jared, and that's exactly what I thought when I saw that question come in. Okay, so basically, Jared is asking, say, in this 5% price increase is 3% from inflation and 2% from appreciation, for example, or like, what is the breakout of those two components of the price change? And a lot of people don't understand the difference, and even know enough to ask a question this good. So props to you there. Jared. One thing you cannot do is just look at CPI inflation over the last year for the US, which is 2.9% and then say, Oh, well, then I guess the other 2.1% must be appreciation. Therefore, no, you can't really do that. There's more to it than that, for a lot of reasons. I mean consumer price inflation, like on a pound of ground beef at the supermarket, that is different from asset price inflation, and there are a lot of other reasons too. Appreciation is distinctly different from inflation, because the value of your property increasing 5% that has to do with the attractiveness of your property to the marketplace. Now there are attributes with appreciation, like proximity to high paying jobs, proximity to highways and shopping in desirable schools, which are basically those axiomatic Location, location, location qualities. Now I'm going to assume that you did not make an improvement or a renovation to the property Jared, because obviously that would hike up the value. Now other appreciation attributes that are distinctly different from inflation are things like population growth and wage growth in your area, what can really pump up appreciation is if the remaining availability of developable land starts shrinking and shriveling up in a desirable location. Contrary to popular belief, mortgage rates have little to do with appreciation. We can leave that out of this discussion. Now, how this is different from inflation is that inflation is not about the intrinsic value. Rather, inflation is the price of the home increasing because the currency is worth less. Now I hope that you find that explanation satisfying Jared, but what is dissatisfying is that it's actually hard to pin down a number and say, was this two and a half percent appreciation and two and a half percent inflation, or any other combination? And that's because inflation itself is practically impossible to accurately measure, and a lot of that has to do with an inflationary basket of goods that is just exceedingly difficult to adjust for attributes like quality and utility and substitution So Jerry did is likely that your duplexes 5% value increase is an amalgamation of both appreciation and inflation, that part I can confirm, but the exact breakdown for each is virtually incalculable, super insightful question there Jared.     The third and final of our three listener questions to get the show started today, and then I'll get into landlords in the LA wildfires and Canada versus us real estate. The final question today is from Jeter in Roseville, California. I know where Roseville is. It's just northeast of Sacramento, and I'm not sure if Jeter j, e t, e r is your first name or your last name, like former Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter, but only one name came in here. Jeter asks, Keith, I am a true believer in GRE principles. I'm looking to pounce on some property this year and get leverage and other people's money working for me, instead of only getting my money to work for me in my company's 401 k. Let me just interject here. You really get it. You really get it. Jeter, um, continuing on with your question, with mortgage rates around 7% I'd love to know where you think interest rates are headed next, and what is going to make rates move. Thanks, Jeter. Well, I've got to tell you, Jeter, not only do I avoid predicting future interest rates, but I don't know of anyone in the world that can predict interest rates with high reliability, especially over the medium to long term. James Grant, He's based in New York City. He puts out a publication called Grant's Interest Rate Observer that might just give you a better than 5050, shot of where they're headed next. He's a well regarded source. In fact, I saw James Grant speak in person a couple months ago, but I wouldn't put too much credence in any interest rate predictor out there. Now, just 11 days ago, I sent our newsletter subscribers a graphic of just how bad. I mean, really awful that recent interest rate predictions have been. I've never seen a chart like this. This chart looked like a centipede. Okay, the Bold Line was the actual federal funds rate that was like the centipedes body and all the hundreds of legs coming off this line were predictions that others had made, all deviating from the true line, the centipede body, which is what the rate really was. I mean, prominent experts rate predictions have a track record that's more abysmal than everyone saying we'd surely have a man on Mars, by now, terrible. Jeter. When you look at interest rate predictions, you're looking at a waste of your time. They're about as reliable as a weather app in a tornado a year ago, the collective brain trusts of all the economic wizards believed with devotion and alacrity that mortgage rates would be sub six now, instead, they are still about seven, which might correspond to a three or three and a half percent federal funds rate. They all thought the federal funds rate would be near three by now, but it's more like four and a half today. And what's hilarious is that, in more recent years, the Fed even tells us what they plan to do next. They even tell us it's little like having the answers to the test, and yet you still fail the test. You've got the cheat sheet and you still aren't doing any better? How can this possibly be? Well, the reason that I don't make interest rate predictions is because it is a surefire way to look foolish. Jeter, to answer the second part of your question, what moves interest rates around? The answer is, well, it's really broad economic forces and political forces, that is why it's tough, and this includes jobs reports, supply and demand of credit, inflation, a pandemic, a surprise new war in the Middle East, tariffs, GDP reports, surprise election outcomes, a massive change in tax policy and more. I mean, it is total entropy. Now, one thing we know is that persistently higher inflation will soon result in higher rates, just like we saw in 2022 I mean, rates rise in a bullish, robust and optimistic economy. And another thing that we do know is that sustained fear causes rates to fall. That's why, when you look at a chart, you see interest rates of all kinds plunge like a cliff diver during the 2001 dot com recession, the 2008 GFC and the 2020 COVID pandemic. The reason that rates fall during fearful times just like those, is because the economy needs the help and a little pro tip for you here, Jeter, when a recession begins, it's more likely than not that rates will fall. But see, it can be hard to predict a recession, as we've all found out recently, we just came off three fed interest rate cuts late last year, and that was a little weird, because the economy does not need the help that is sort of like offering Gatorade to someone that's not even sweating. Okay, and when rates scrape the ocean bottom floor at zero, from 2009 to 2016 and then again from 2020, to 2022,that's unhealthy. Natural market forces would mean that there's a cost to receive a service like borrowing money. Well, with zero rates, it feels like no one wants to save and everyone wants to borrow and spend. Zero rates, it is time to all out. Ball out. My two time GRE podcast guest here on the show, and super smart guy, Dr Chris Martinson, he thinks that rates are generally going to go higher from here. But you don't have to look far. You can find other wise guys that say they're going lower. At the last Fed meeting last year, they disappointed markets by signaling plans to only cut rates twice this year, instead of the four cuts that were previously expected. And now that's even changed since then, a lot of people question if those two cuts are even going to happen this year, given things like a hot jobs report that came flying in and still too high inflation. So this is kind of like expecting a decadent dessert of rate cuts, and instead you get, like, one Biscoff cookie, like they give you an economy on the plane. So Jeter, that's why I don't forecast rates. I don't think anyone can, but now, at least you have a couple resources, and you also know what factors move rates around.    Now if you want a fun, real time pulse on the market. Check out poly market. You might have heard of it by now. It's a site where you can place bets on various outcomes, a lot of non sports bets. You can see people put their money where their mouth is. You don't have to make a wager yourself. You can just see what people are wagering on. There are wagers on fed interest rate decisions. There at Poly market, you can even place a bet on if Jerome Powell says Good afternoon at his next press conference over there on Poly market, I'm not kidding right now, the odds of him saying Good afternoon at his next press conference are 96% so remember this, the market has always felt confident about where rates are headed, and the market has always been wrong. Interest rates don't drive property values. Their intrinsic worth is based on the timeless stuff, location, amenities, income, occupancy, size, density, business case, exit options and operating costs. Those are the things that drive property values. The bottom line with interest rates is that nobody knows the future interest rates direction is a pinball game of black swans and policy pivots. So instead, focus on the big things that you can control, like how many dollars you have, leveraging properties and keeping your operations on those properties efficient. So Jeter waiting to buy property generally harms an investor more than it helps them, because it's dollars on the sidelines that are paying the opportunity cost of not leveraging other people's money. Of course, if you buy your property at whatever interest rate today, and rates soon fall like a knife, well, then you can refinance at the lower rate, all while leverage keeps compounding and building your wealth. Thanks for the question,  Jeter.    If you have a listener question or comment or feedback of any type for us, as always, you can visit us at get rich education.com/contactfor either written or voice communication there, like I said earlier, that amazingly interesting centipede like chart of just how dreadful interest rate predictions have really been that was in our recent newsletter. Now it's too late for you to get that issue, but to get more like them, you can get our don't Quit your Daydream. Newsletter, completely free, just text GRE to 66866 that's text GRE to 66866.   now, when it comes to this month's historically bad, devastating LA area wildfires, I heard from a friend in that area last week. She lives just south of LA and her house was spared, fortunately, but she's been busy helping friends in the LA area who have lost their homes and businesses. It is truly tragic. And you know, what she told me, is the biggest, most compelling need right now, and I put some credence in this, since it's an independent on the ground report. This is outside of major media, displaced residents. Number one need is not food, it's not water, it's not clothing, it's not heat, it's not even community with 1000s of families without homes, the urgent need is for housing. You might not find that surprising. That's what she shared with me. I mean, it is a need so dire that even a family of six would consider a small mobile home or an RV rental to help with temporary housing. And a lot of these displaced families were you know, you got to consider the fact that before the fire, they were living in above average homes, even luxury homes. Now, as far as LA area, landlords that have housing to rent out, a lot of those landlords have jacked up the rent price. California's anti price gouging. Laws make it illegal for landlords to raise rent by more than 10% in the first month to six months after a disaster is declared. Now the BBC reported that one resident who lost their home in the historic California wildfires found a rental property that was previously priced at $13,000 per month, they offered $20,000 per month, and the landlord countered with 23k that is a 75% price hike. And it's not the only example. A Bel Air home located in an evacuation warning zone was listed on Zillow recently at 29,500bucks a month. That is an 86% hike from its September of last year price. That's according to the outlet called La est, another realtor raised in Encino, California, listing from 9k per month at the beginning of this month to 11 and a half K after the fires started. That's according to the LA Times. The realtor then backpedaled to abide by the 10% rule, which she said that she did not know about. And for a little context there, yes, those rent prices sound high, and La rent was already high. It averaged $2,820 a month. That's compared to $1,983a month nationally. Those figures are per Zillow. Now I don't know what percentage of La landlords are engaging in. I guess what I'll call extortionate behavior, but even if it's the vast minority of landlords you know that gives them a bad name, to have the word landlord in headlines like this. And is this behavior extortionate? In some cases, it probably is, I suspect, just a guess here that some landlords might think they have a chance of insurance paying some or all of the higher rent for their tenant that was displaced from their original home. But let's keep things in perspective here. What this does to good landlords reputations. You know, that's not the story here. The story and the effort should be in helping the displaced people. And of course, there are so many angles to the devastating la wildfires. One of them is that many believe zoning laws pushed homes out into fire prone areas. I recently shared that reason.com article with you in our free newsletter. So again, to get our Don't quit your Daydream newsletter, completely free, which I write every word of myself. Text GRE to 6866 you can do it now, while it's on your mind, hit pause and text GRE to 66866 the abject lunacy in Canada's real estate market, in what US residents and others can learn from all this, that's next. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get rich education.   Hey, you. Can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine at Ridge lending group NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start now while it's on your mind at Ridge lendinggroup.com That's ridgelendinggroup.com.   Oh geez, the national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings, so your bank is getting rich off of you. You've got to earn way more, or else you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk, your cash generates up to a 10% return and compounds year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25k you keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back. Their decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And you know how I know, because I'm an investor in this myself, earn 10% like me and GRE listeners are text family to 66866, to learn about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text family to 66866   Naresh Vissa  26:41   this is GRE real estate investment coach. Naresh Vissa don't live below your means, grow your needs. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold.   Keith Weinhold  26:57   Welcome back to get rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, let's discuss the Canadian economy and Canadian real estate. Because even if you live in the US or Central America or Europe or one of the other 187 nations that were heard in outside the US, you know there are lessons here for you, and there are lessons here for me as well. There is some just jaw dropping material that I'm about to share with you, and I won't discuss the politics of it, because that's not GRE 's lane. Instead, it is the policy. Earlier this month, Canada's equivalent of the President, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that he will be resigning soon. And Trudeau has been under a lot of criticism. At last check, his approval rating was a miserable 22% now, most people think that the next and future Prime Minister of Canada will be a man named Pierre Poilievre. In fact, the wagering site poly market has polyev with an over 80% chance of being Canada's next prime minister, and you will hear him speak shortly here. And yes, that is how an Anglophone pronounces his last name, polyev In a recent interview with Dr Jordan Peterson. You'll listen into here shortly. Polyev, Canada's likely next leader here, first, he describes some of the problems with Canada's economy, and then he'll get into their real estate market. Right now, the median home price in the United States is about 450k you might think that Canada's should be lower, because Canada has more land in the US and Canada has just about 1/9 of the US population. So a low population density. I mean, the US is population density is more than 10 times Canada's. But no, due to some of these policies, it's just the opposite, because Canada's average home is over 725k. yeah, that's just for a basic home. I've got to admit, I did not know who polyev was until just a couple months ago. I'm starting to like him the more that I listen to him. He's a clear thinker and a clear speaker. Here is a clip of Canada's likely next leader talking about Canada's problems. This is 10 and a half minutes long. I'm going to listen to this again with you right now, and then I will come back along with you to comment. This is why you can't buy a house in Trudeau, Canada.    Unknown Speaker  29:41   Our productivity is another major problem right now, and that's productivity. Sounds complicated. It's actually extremely simple. You just take the GDP and you divide it by the hours worked in the country. So American GDP is $80 so for every hour an American worker works, on average. He or she produces $80 of GDP in Canada, it 50. So that's every hour. So that means we have to work 60% more just to make the same amount and have the same level of income to buy food and housing. And so that's the Now that sounds like a bunch of wonk speak that should might seem like it only matters to someone staring at a spreadsheet or a graph or a chart, but in fact, that's reflected in the fact that our 2 million people are lined up at food banks because they can't afford food, and 80% of youth can't afford homes, and our quality of life is and the things we can afford to provide our kids have fallen back so much there's a real, real life, Stark and easily comprehensible statistic. And if you work and you produce $80 worth of goods and services in an hour, yeah, compared to working and producing 50, obviously, that's a substantial shortfall. Yeah. So, and is that, is there a starker indicator of the economic disparity between the US and Canada than that? Or do you think that's the primary statistic? I mean, I think housing costs are another one. I mean, right. There was a study out just 10 days ago that has Toronto and Vancouver now by far the most unaffordable housing markets in North America. And so you know, housing costs are 50% higher in Toronto than they are in Chicago, even though Chicago workers make 50% more money. The same is true between Vancouver and Seattle. Seattle workers make way more than Vancouver workers, but housing is 60 or 70% more expensive in Vancouver. So on, all the measures by a lot. Yes, a lot by a lot. Yeah, and we're and we're paying more, more by a lot, right? And most of that's transpired the last 10 years. Yes, and we're paying the difference by accumulating enormous quantities of debt. Our households are by far the most indebted in the g7. when you take you divide total household debt by GDP, we now have a bigger stock of household debt than our entire economy. We are more indebted as households than the Americans were right before the oh eight financial crisis. And so what we have as a model in Canada is we have artificial scarcity imposed by very heavy and restrictive state, confiscatory state, so that suppresses production. But in order to allow for consumption, we print money and borrow money and then flood the economy with that money. Okay, so that's another problem. So that's the inflationary problem. Yes. Now the problem with inflation just many problems with inflation, but one of them is that it particularly punishes people who are thrifty and who save? Yes, right, right? So inflation punishes the people who forego gratification to invest in the future. That's right, right? So that's a very bad idea. It's our inflation is the single most immoral tax for so many reasons. One, it takes from savers and people who are trying to be responsible, thus making it impossible to be responsible, because you will, if you, if you refuse to play the inflation game of borrowing money to buy things you can't afford, someone else inevitably will, and you won't be able to afford anything. So you ultimately have to actor responsibly. It's like Milton Friedman was asked, What would you do with your money in times of inflation? He said, spend it right like the first thing you want to do when inflation is out of control is to make sure you get rid of this thing that's losing its value. The second reason it's immoral is it takes from the poor, because the poorest people cannot put they do not have the ability to buy inflation proof assets like gold and real estate and fancy watches and art collections and wine fancy wines and things that go up with or even exceed inflation. So it's a very big wealth transfer from the have to the from the from the poor and the working class to the very, very wealthy, a very small group of people actually get richer. So the socialist policies that provide goods and services to Canadians, let's say, or denizens of other countries by printing money, actually punish the poor brutally. Oh, absolutely, and consequence of the inflation that they generate. Yes, I mean all the socialist policies in practice take redistribute from the working class to the super wealthy in practice, and I can prove that again and again and again in practice, yeah, in practice. In practice they with the all the redistribution that happens in the so called socialist countries ultimately goes from the working class to the super wealthy. That is the reality. Okay, so, but just one last thing on inflation. The final reason why it's so immoral is nobody votes on it. The basic principle of our parliamentary system is the government can't tax what parliament has not voted the people must no taxation without representation, right? But no one ever votes to have the money printing happen. And so the inflation is adopted secretly, and you blame the grocer because groceries are more expensive, or your local gas station because gas is more or your realtor because house, in fact, it was actually the government that bid up all of those things with money printing, and you didn't even know about it. So it is silent. It's a silent thief that takes from the poor and gives to the richest people and destroys the working class. And that's why I am I want to crush inflation. We need a policy that seeks to just to stop inflation at all, at all costs. Okay, so what would you do to to stop inflation? Well, we stopped the money printing. You know, we need a we need. And the money printing is just a means to fund deficit spending. Governments borrow to define the deficit, yeah, for people. So basically, the deficit is the difference between what the government spends and what it brings in. It's usually calculated on a yearly basis, that's right, yeah, and the debt, but the debt is just the accumulation of the deficits, right? So the deficit right now is $62 billion and I thought it had a ceiling of 41 billion. Yeah, right. Isn't that a ceiling? Yes, not a I guess not. And look, there are very real present day consequences for that. Deficits increase the money supply. Central banks effectively facilitate that increase in the money supply, and that causes inflation. And, you know, it's, it's why our, you know, I have a buddy who's whose family moved here from Italy back in 1973 His father worked paving roads and his mother made sandwiches in a senior's home, they were able to pay off their home 10 minutes from Parliament Hill in seven years. Right, their grandchildren wouldn't be able to save up a down payment for that home in 15 years, and they will be university educated with all the advantages of having been here two decades. That is the consequence of the money supply growing vastly quicker than the stuff that money buys. So we have to do is stop growing the money supply and start growing the stuff money buys. Right? Produce more energy, grow more food, build more homes. We have to unleash the free enterprise system to produce more stuff of value, and this is where we have to remove the artificial scarcity that the government is imposing on the population. Let's incentivize our municipalities to grant the fastest building permits in the world to build homes. You have a plan for that in principle, yes, I mean, I'm going to say to the municipal governments, they either, they either speed up permits, cut Development Charges and free up land, or they will lose their federal infrastructure money, so they will have a powerful carrot and stick incentive to speed up home building and the percentage of a new house price. That's a consequence of government, taxation and regulation. Well, in Vancouver, it's 60% 66 does that include the land and the house? Yes, that includes everything. So I'll tell you how they calculate it, CD, how took the cost of building a compare the cost of building a home to the cost of buying a home, yeah. And he said, what's the gap between those two things? So they added up land, labor, profit for the developer, materials, and they compared that to the sale price, and they found the gap was $1.2 million so that's $1.2 million of extra cost, above and beyond the materials, the labor, the land and the profit for the developer. So where's that going? Well? The answer is, development charges,sales taxes, land transfer taxes, the delays in getting the permit. Time is money, the consultants, lawyers, accountants, lobbyists that the developer has to hire in order to get the approval that so in other words, we're spending twice in Vancouver. We spend twice as much on bureaucrats than we do on all other things combined. To build a home, more money goes to bureaucrats than goes to the carpenters, electricians and plumbers who build the place. And to add insult to injury, those trades people who build homes can't afford to live in them, right? I mean, it is. So what we need to do is slash the bureaucracy. And I'm going to I'm going to say to the mayors, you're not getting federal infrastructure money until you slash your development charges, speed up your permits. I'm going to take. The Federal GST off new homes under a certain limit, and encourage the provinces to do the same. But we've got so much land. We should have the most affordable housing in the world. We have. It should be dirt cheap because we have the most dirt we just need to get the government out of the way.    Keith Weinhold  40:20   Yeah, again, that was Dr Jordan Peterson interviewing Canada's likely next leader, Pierre poilievre, just a few weeks ago now. Polyev, when discussing inflation and investing, you know, he also brought up points that I've surfaced here on the show over the past few years. He even articulates a few things the way I've described them. It's almost weird, like inflation means that it actually makes sense to strategically borrow and spend and not to save. It's almost like polyev is a GRE listener. I love how he said, stop growing the money supply and start growing the things that money buys. We're talking about things like homes and energy and food. That was eloquent. I mean, in Vancouver, the percentage of a new house cost for taxation and regulation is 60% of the cost of the home, fully 60 and then, if that's not surprising enough, due to all these layers of regulation, the cost of building a new home is $1.2 million more than the cost of buying an existing home. Just astounding. This might have even left you either flabbergasted or gobsmacked, which one?So some parallels to the US there in Canada, but back here in the US, the housing market is clearly more affordable and healthier. Polyev really pointed out a direction that the US does not want to fall into. In fact, we've got a pretty good Canadian listening contingent. So let me ask, Do you have a connection to Pierre poilievre, if you do, we would probably like to invite him here on to the show with us. If you do, or you even know someone that knows someone, let us know right into get rich education.com/contact or email us directly at info@get rich education.com and we'll make that happen now. What is happening at GRE marketplace right now is that our listeners are getting brand new build investment property in Florida and some other places at competitive prices and a fixed interest rate of just four and three quarters percent. So yes, that is sub Canadian prices, by far below Canadian prices, and a four and three quarter percent rate. And then on top of that, you get to pay an affordable insurance premium in Florida because it's new build, or similarly, it's that way in other states if you buy new build, but builders overbuilt in some pockets of Florida, like I've mentioned to you before. So at this time, on top of all that, they're offering a free full year of property management. And because when you own a new build property, it's not occupied with tenants on day one, and this means that you don't inherit unknown tenants. And builders are also offering you up to three months in a rent guarantee in case your single family home or duplex or four Plex is not occupied yet, the builder would pay the rent for you. Really amazing incentives, but probably none better than that four and three quarter percent mortgage rate. I mean, it's like you get to roll the clock back to when rates were artificially low, back in 2021, and 2022, and lock it in. Now, our GRE investment coaches connect you with the investment property that's right for you based on your needs and your goals, including those four and three quarter percent rates, if you so choose, it is all free at GRE marketplace. From GRE marketplace.com just click on the coaching area and you can book a time right there until next week. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.    Unknown Speaker  44:23   nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively   Unknown Speaker  44:51   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building get rich education.com you.  

Get Rich Education
536: Why the Housing Crisis is Pushing Homelessness to Catastrophic Heights

Get Rich Education

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 13, 2025 39:55


Discover the latest global real estate trends and untapped investment opportunities. Keith uncovers high-yield new build rental properties that can deliver impressive returns, even in today's challenging market. Don't miss your chance to build lasting wealth through strategic real estate investing. Tune in now to get the insider insights you need to get ahead. The podcast dives into dramatic global real estate trends, with home prices skyrocketing over 10% in countries like Colombia and the Netherlands. It also examines the alarming rise in U.S. homelessness, driven by factors like housing shortages and inflation. To counter these challenges, the show spotlights compelling new-build rental properties that could offer attractive returns for passive investors. GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREmarketplace.com/Coach For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/536 Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai    Keith Weinhold  0:02   Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, we look at global home price change, the asset class rundown, then the homelessness crisis is mega bad. It just reached new, unprecedented levels, and real estate and inflation has a lot to do with the homelessness surge today on get rich education.   Speaker 1  0:28   Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, who delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show. Guess who? Top Selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com   Corey Coates  1:13   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  1:29   Welcome to GRE from Kent Washington to Tashkent, Uzbekistan and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are listening to get rich education. One reason for a not just national, but global, rise in real estate prices is that you can't fake it. Real property is not a derivative, yeah, you can't fake it. So this really emphasizes the word real in real estate. It's not a crypto within infinite supply. It's not an NFT. You can't fake construction. You can't fake real materials put into property, from concrete to kitchen cabinets. So in the year recently ended, as we catch up to global home prices and select nations, per Fitch Ratings. Let's do that because it was not just a US centric thing. In the Netherlands, the home price change last year was 13% you had that much appreciation in the Netherlands. Colombia, 10% Mexico up 9.3% Brazil had 8% home price appreciation. Australia, 5.2% Australia has just seen year over year home price appreciation for such a long time. The UK had 5% appreciation. Spain, 5% as well. The USA, 4% just like I predicted at the end of 2023 for 2024 It did indeed come in at 4% Canada also had exactly 4% home price appreciation last year, just like the USA did. Denmark 3% Italy and Japan each at two and a half percent. Germany home prices were up just one and a half percent. And France had home prices that fell 3% China had home prices that fell 7.8% that supply versus demand thing in China, where they massively overbuilt, that's why home prices are down there. And as I unveil the depths of the USS homelessness crisis later here on the show, you will see that, yeah, those appreciated real estate prices, like I just mentioned, they have a lot to do with it. Now you might think of the youngest generation, the generation after Gen Z, as generation alpha, and that is true. However, they are no longer the youngest generation, because the babies born on New Year's Day of this year not only got to be featured in feel good local news stories. You know what? They are, also the first members of generation, beta, yeah, which will include children born from 2025 through 2039 so that is the future and the future demographic that's going to demand housing. But first of all, let's look at a year that was yes for years here on the show, we have our asset class rundown shortly after most quarters end, and certainly after a year ends. And today is no different, and this is because at times you've got to compare real estate with the other investment options that are out there. We now have music to play for our asset class rundown feature each time for today and. Future shows. And I know the GRE sound engineer has got to like this. He's also a DJ dropit, Vedrand. Here is GRE 's asset class rundown for the 12 months of last year, residential real estate values were up 4% per the NARS. Single Family existing home price, like I said earlier, single family rents up about 2% per core logic, apartment rents pretty flat, down six tenths of 1% for the year per apartment list, office buildings were down in value 9% the 30 year fixed rate mortgage. It started last year at 6.6% everyone, I mean, everyone, thought that they would go lower, but nope, they ended at 6.9% a little higher. That's per Freddie Mac survey. The s5&p 100 index was up over 23% topping out at 6100 last year. That is the first time the s&p has been up 20% plus in back to back years since 1998 and the s&p is meant to represent 500 companies, but it has become so concentrated due to the rise of the Magnificent Seven stocks that its effective diversification is less than 60 stocks. Morgan Stanley just announced that they expect the SP500, 100 returns to be flat for the next decade due to lofty valuations. Do you know that since 2000 gold has outperformed the s&p last year, gold shot up from about $2,000 peaked near $2,800 and then ended up about 30% for last year, the yield on the 10 year T note was up 63 basis points last year, basically rising from four up to 4.6% by year end. What that means is that that signals higher inflation expectations. Bitcoin up an astounding 111% to end last year around 95k and it topped out at an all time high of 108k oil up just 2% to 72 bucks and a wild card for you. Through October, Bible sales were up 22% compared to the same period versus the previous year. That is GRE 's asset class rundown. It was.    This is get rich education. Let's drop back and do some learning before I update you on housing and the homelessness crisis. Now, a lot of Americans don't really know history that well, and not very many have a good financial education either. But you know, it is quite possible that even the next person you spot in a Trader Joe's aisle has heard of Adam Smith in his landmark 1776 book The Wealth of Nations. Did you know that Adam Smith is the one credited with actually inventing the very concept of supply and demand? Yeah, Adam Smith, a Scotsman is credited with that. He is known as the father of modern economics. You might have already known that. Well, of course, supply versus demand seems to be a more relevant concept than usual. Here with the housing shortage crisis, Adam Smith, he proposed the idea of what he called an invisible hand, that is the tendency of free markets to regulate themselves using competition, supply and demand and self interest, a Darwinian sort of struggle. Really, did you know that he also created the concept of gross domestic product? Yeah, prior to Adam Smith's work, most people considered a nation's wealth based on the amount of gold and silver reserves that they had stored. But Adam Smith said no, it's more about productivity quantified in this GDP in a lot of his work. It also discusses the evolution of human society from a hunter stage with no property rights and no fixed residences, to nomadic agriculture with shifting residences. And then the next stage after that is a feudal society, where laws and property rights are established to protect privileged classes. And finally, that modern society is characterized by laissez faire or free markets, so a good chunk of Adam Smith's work revolved around real estate. Now, the history of economics like that is a phrase that sounds boring. Maybe it is to some people, but as an investor, the least that you should know about Adam Smith's landmark book The Wealth of Nations from the year 1776 is that to review, he invented the supply demand concept. He created the GDP concept, and he championed free markets. That's something you're going to appreciate knowing in your investor life. And also supply demand, as I discussed that in the homelessness problem shortly.    we are a real estate show, and, you know, I just don't hear other real estate shows talk about, well, the unfortunate, I guess, absence of real estate in an increasing number of people's lives now, even if you have a home, learn about how homelessness is gonna make your life worse, too. In fact, it already has. I'm not sure if you've noticed, I will get into that as well. First listen to these two spots, freedom, family investments for an eight to 10% return on your liquid capital and Ridge lending group, they specialize in income property loans. They can really help you, and I would know, because I use them both my self. I'm Keith Weinhold. This is get rich education. Here you go.   Oh, geez, the national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings, so your bank is getting rich off of you. You've got to earn way more, or else you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk, your cash generates up to a 10% return and compounds year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25k you keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back. Their decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And you know how I'd know, because I'm an investor in this myself earn 10% like me and GRE listeners are. Text family to66866, to learn about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text family to 66866    Hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine, at Ridge lending group NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage, you can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start Now while it's on your mind at Ridge lendinggroup.com that's Ridge lendinggroup.com   Ken McElroy  12:41   this is Rich Dad advisor, Ken McElroy. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.   Keith Weinhold  12:57   Welcome back. You're listening to get rich education Episode 536, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, it is bad. America just hit a record high homelessness number, and it is up double digits, over 18% in just one year. It is even worse when we look at family homelessness and the rise in that and gosh, get this unaccompanied youth homeless, meaning like a 15 year old kid homeless and drifting by themselves. And this is all in the most powerful nation in the world. And even if you have a home. Homelessness is gonna make your life worse, too. We'll also look at how Trump wants to address this. It is major. And finally, are there any solutions to the homelessness crisis in America today? Well, there are now over 771,000 homeless in America, that's up from 653k just last year. And yes, the homeless can be hard to count, but as long as the methodology stays the same, I mean, there you go with the 18% increase. And here's the thing from all the years, from 2007 to 2023, all 16 of those years, we only saw a total increase of 19% during that entire span, and now 18% in just one year this latest year. I mean, talk about exponential and accelerating homelessness growth. And before I tell you about why this is happening, let's get a better idea of the gravity of this sad situation here, and this is all from HUD's newly released annual homelessness assessment report to Congress among subgroups families with children saw the biggest increase as. At 39% year over year. You think that's sad, but consider how sad this is. Unaccompanied homeless children, they're up 10% in just a year, and that was only up 3.4% all of the previous 16 years combined. Veterans are the only group to see a decrease, and the number of homeless people over 65 so we're talking seniors here that is expected to almost triple by 2030 that is just five years away, and it is just widespread too. I mean, nearly no US geography is immune from this spike in homelessness, from Florida to Maine to California to Alaska. Now, even if you have a home, the shoes of that are pretty good, if you're listening to me, you know, why does this even make your life worse? Well, of course, first of all, homelessness can make your city blighted. But beyond that, just think about how many ways it's just changing your week in and week out routine. I mean, have you noticed, like, just take, for example, when you or I walk into some grocery stores anymore. I mean, I notice how different things are than they were just say, five years ago. I mean, you've got to notice some of these things now, more often than there was just a few years ago, there's an armed guard when you walk into a store near the entrance. Well, someone is paying for that security, whether it's the store passing the price along to you, or whether it's a government or municipality paying that, well, that's where your tax money goes. And what about when you're shopping the aisles of a supermarket, or, say, CVS? Well, now even kind of moderately priced items like bottles of moisturizer, they are under lock and key behind a Plexiglas case. That's inconvenient while you're shopping if you need to use the bathroom, oh, now you need to go get a key or learn the door code to access the bathrooms. That's inconvenient when you're done and as you walk out of the store now, they are more likely to have an attendant that checks your receipts on the way out, and this is just one example at the supermarket. I mean, so many of your patterns are changing due to poor people getting poorer, and the homelessness crisis, if you're in a rural area, it probably affects you less. But just take a look around and notice the change. We're not talking about the change from your parents era, but just in your own life over the past, say, three to five years, homelessness is not good for an area's crime rate either. I mean, it is not good to have desperate people, hungry people, these people have nothing to lose if you're homeless and you commit a crime and go to jail. Hey, that might be an upgrade for some people now you've got a warm, clean place to stay in jail. So now that you and I understand more about why this even affects you and I let's talk about why is homelessness growing at this alarming rate, well, higher prices for real estate, which really accelerated in 2021 and they are not going to relent. As I've said elsewhere, home prices are not going to go down in a meaningful way anytime soon as just three weeks ago. Here on our forecast episode, I forecast another 5% of national home price appreciation this year. And it's not just higher prices, it's higher rents. Rents really started taking off in 2021 as well. Well. Higher rents, that means more evictions, and an eviction is the start of homelessness for a lot of people. And a third reason for this surge in homelessness is just that overall lack of housing. I have covered that extensively elsewhere. Yes, the housing supply crisis, and as I'm known for saying, the housing crash already occurred. Did you miss it? It was a supply crash that occurred about five years ago, and a lot of agencies think we're under supplied by 3.7 million housing units. Now, when you look at the new HUD supplied map of homelessness by state, you can very much see that it is about housing, because those regions with the highest home prices generally have the most homelessness. We're talking about the Northeast, the West Coast and Hawaii. And the fourth reason for the homelessness surge is that, of course, inflation started accelerating about four years ago, and people just cannot make ends meet anymore. CPI inflation peaked at 9.1% back. In June of 2022 and year over year, prices are still going up 3% today. Prices are not going down. They're just rising at a slower rate. And of course, inflation hurts the poor and actually helps the wealthy, exacerbating the inequality Canyon the wealthy have assets. Those assets float up in value with inflation and the prices at the grocery store are just a tiny part of a wealthy person spending. But the poor don't own assets that float up with the inflation and higher grocery prices and things like electric bills, well, they comprise a big part of a poor person's income. And fifthly, the massive arrival of immigrants pushed up homeless numbers these past, oh, three or so years. And it remains to be seen how many of those people really get deported. And you know, a sixth reason for homelessness. It's not something new, it's what I'll call all of these background reasons that have been there for decades and are not going away, like how a medical emergency can even drain a middle class person's savings and things like ongoing substance abuse. I mean, drug users often cannot stay employed. So there you have it. What was that? Six big reasons that I've identified for surging homelessness now let's see what Donald Trump has to say and understand that, due to last June Supreme Court decision, Trump now has got more power to clear out encampments and make life for the homeless more difficult, opening the door now to be criminally charged for trespassing and illegal camping. I mean, you really don't want to be homeless today as part of what Trump calls his agenda 47 his plan to tackle homelessness. Here is his preamble.    Donald Trump  21:57   Our once great cities have become unlivable, unsanitary nightmares surrendered to the homeless, the drug addicted and the violent and dangerously deranged. We're making many suffer for the whims of a deeply unwell few, and they are unwell. Indeed, the homeless have no right to turn every park and sidewalk into a place for them to squat and do drugs. Americans should not have to step over piles of needles and waste as they walk down a street in a beautiful city, or at least once beautiful city, because they've changed so much over the last 10 years.    Keith Weinhold  22:40   So that's the problem. Here's the solution. I'll boil down the meat of the Trump agenda, 47 homeless statement to just the most salient 40 seconds for you here. Just listen to this, and as you listen in closely, note that this is not a housing first plan for the homeless. Instead, it's treatment first.   Donald Trump  23:03   Under my strategy, working with states, we will ban urban camping wherever possible. Violators of these bans will be arrested, but they will be given the option to accept treatment and services if they're willing to be rehabilitated. Many of them don't want that, but we'll give them the option. We will then open up large parcels of inexpensive land, bring in doctors, psychiatrists, social workers and drug rehab specialists, and create tent cities where the homeless can be relocated and their problems identified. But we'll open up our cities again, make them livable and make them beautiful.   Keith Weinhold  23:43   Okay, it's not housing first, because, see, he wants to ban urban camping, something that parallels the Supreme Court decision. What this is not is that it is not giving the homeless hotels in the city, like some cities have recently done, converting their hotels into homeless shelters. Instead, this is designating large parcels of cheap land for tent cities, but outside the urban core, like in a big grassy lot, and then bringing in social workers and rehab specialists for them, and that way, his solution is that this city is free of homeless people, and really that is the crux of Trump's plan. But what are some other solutions here? And these are now my insights, not Trump's, that is, build more housing. That's really simple. I mean, this will naturally slow down, accelerating home prices and spiking rents, and we've got to relax regulation and zoning. We had a zoning expert, Nolan gray on the show here last year. Some scholars believe that we should just eliminate zoning in America completely. And one. One way to relax regulation is to Gosh, revisit some of these over the top safety concerns. I mean, look, it increases the cost of the most basic entry level housing when every home needs to have all these thick, fire rated doors and smoke detectors all over the place, and carbon monoxide detectors everywhere, and GFCI electrical outlets all over the place. I mean, hey, it sounds kind of funny to say out loud, but all this stuff contributes to making affordable housing impossible. And another solution is that you've got to kill nimbyism in a lot of cases, yes, that not in my backyard. Ism, you know, a person can act like they're all pro development, and like they're all free market, and they want to have their home built just how they want it, where they want it, but you know what, as soon as their home was built, they don't want others moving near them, yeah, somehow the free market's not so great anymore, okay? And they sure don't want apartment buildings nearby. Well, that is what we need, allowing taller structures to be built. That is called up zoning. It doesn't have to be a gigantic apartment building either. We need more, mmm, properties, multi families, missing middle. That means building more two, three and four unit structures in single family neighborhoods, duplexes, triplexes, fourplexes, because a lot of those can be built so that they look like single family homes. But yet it's something affordable and it helps with density. Another solution to deal with homelessness is to, of course, bring down inflation. The government needs to stop printing, say, $1 trillion to pay for a program, whether that's sending aid to foreign nations or whatever that program is. When more dollars are created like that, it debases the currency everyone else is holding on to, including your dollars, and it makes everyone from landlords to grocers have to raise their prices. And you know, here's the funny thing in the last election for president that we had last year, well, that administration got voted out of office, and many say that the number one reason was due to high inflation, but yet, look at what they voted for with the incoming administration. Everyone expects higher inflation. So there's a real paradox there.    On our YouTube channel, you can watch videos of me going out outdoors and interviewing the homeless. In fact, I'm surprised at how many homeless let me into their tents, and they wanted to show me their makeshift shelters and tell me about their life. I mean, that's kind of the good news. They were open. They were friendly people. I think they really wanted that to get exposed, because they were hoping that people would see that to come do something for them. I think that's why they've been so open with me. So that was good on the flip side, oh gosh. One thing that they have in common is that they all seemingly want to blame somebody else for the condition that they're in other than themselves, like the government or including telling me that landlords are greedy. But it really is fascinating to see from our get rich education YouTube channel, which is different content from this show. Just search the word homeless there on the get rich education YouTube channel and you can see it.    Hey, I want to ask you something. What is your on ramp to real estate investing? Like, how did you approach it? Or how did you get into it? I mean, mine was as a disgruntled employee. That's it. I didn't come from a complimentary professional place. I mean, that's how I became an investor, and there was nothing wrong with my job position. Specifically, I worked with good people and everything. In fact, I had an easy and safe job, and it paid a little bit well. But, you know, safe is not the place to be. Safety is the opposite of freedom. As an employee, you know, I could see that 401 K type plans. They were designed so that you don't get income from them until you're old. It's a salary reduction plan all those working years as well. Well, no wonder that your employer encourages participation in them. That way they're going to keep you working as an employee until retirement, because that's when they're designed to generate income. But see my point here, really is that I did not have a complimentary skill set to real estate investing, and if you do, it can be to your advantage. So you know what I mean. Let's take a couple of friends of. The show here, Robert Helms, host of the terrific real estate guys radio show. He came from a real estate agent family. His dad was an agent. Well, that can help you find deals. How about Ken McElroy, another frequent guest on the show here, very successful real estate investor. Well, he was a property manager before he became a real estate investor, totally complementary skill set. And by the way, two months ago in New Orleans, I was invited to participate in a collective inner circle mastermind group session that Robert and Ken help run. That was cool, but getting back to complementary skill sets, Michael Becker, a former guest here on the show, he was a lender, so he got to see the paperwork of all these successful investors. So he became one himself. I mean, as a lender, you keep seeing savvy investors leverage themselves with debt and then do cash out refinances, a tax free windfall event, all while they keep the asset too well. He wanted to get in on some of that. And I also know real estate investors that started out as handymen, okay, a hands on trade that can totally help when you're starting out as a real estate investor. So do you have a complimentary skill set that can help make you a successful real estate investor. If you don't, then don't despair, because you know what? I don't have one myself. I was just a former employee that wanted something else. I don't have a complimentary skill set to real estate investing. No transferable professional skill. Instead of that, I just became a reader, but not a massive reader. Of course, I was a learner before I was a teacher. I enjoyed learning this stuff, and I also got a good grasp on the numbers and how that works. But importantly, my advantage was I take action, I just keep adding property to my portfolio. You just got to keep doing that, regardless of what's happening in the larger economy or what prices are or what interest rates are.    And as you know, last week, I discussed the advantages of owning and building with brand new build rental property today, and you know, new build and these build to rent properties, those are things that that really wasn't even available when I started out investing. Well, it wasn't. I mean, with new build, oh, your maintenance repair costs are going to be low. You tend to attract a high quality tenant that also tends to stay for a while. Insurance costs tend to be lower on new build. And there's a bigger advantage than all of that in the market cycle right now that I'll get into shortly. Well, historically, the long run average. Do you have any idea what proportion of homes for sale are new build homes? Any guess, like, what share of those homes are new? It's only about one in eight. Yeah, the Census Bureau and the NAR tell us that it's 13% historically. Okay, well, what do you think it is today? Well, today, that number is up. Existing homeowners, they're not selling those homes aren't getting on the market as often due to the lock in effect, and we have to add supply. So in order to do that, we are building more new there's just no other way to bring it to market. Well, today, the proportion of new build homes for sale among all homes for sale is fully double that, at 26% although we're still undersupplied of homes in the US by about 30% you know there are pockets where they've overbuilt with new builds, including in Florida and Texas. So the time could really be right to expand your income property portfolio in one of those places, because builders that we work with at GRE marketplace are really willing to give you a deal now you've got them right where you want them if you're looking for a deal. How does a four and three quarter percent interest rate sound? Yes. Rates on non owner occupied property are about eight right now. They're about seven on owner occupied property, but we've got builders willing to buy your rate down to 4.75% and they're also offering one year of free property management and three months of rent guarantee protection in case your property is not occupied right away. The first one is a brand new build duplex in Inverness, Florida, two beds, two baths, each side, price of 420k projected rent from both sides at $2,830 and the size is 2100 square feet. I mean the. That sounds like it could make your cash flow thin, until you consider that 4.75% fixed mortgage rate the property tax is about one and a half percent and insurance get this projected at just $1,155 a year for an entire new build duplex, and now you might ask, what could the rate of return be on this Florida duplex new build? Well, I projected 5% appreciation for this year. New builds tend to appreciate better than existing property, but let's just use 5% if you have a 25% down payment, that's four to one leverage. So you've got a 20% return on your money. And let's just keep it conservative. When we look at monthly cash flow, that results in a 5% cash on cash return. Add that to your 20% leverage appreciation, you're up to a 25% ROI already. Add in the fact that your tenant is paying down your principal for you by $405 every month. That's 4860 annually, divided by your 105k down payment. That means you've got another four and a half percent return here. Let's just call it four. You're up to a 29% total ROI we haven't even added in yet, your tax depreciation benefit, and now you're up to a return in the mid 30s. Finally, your inflation profiting benefit on your fixed amortizing debt, and you are well into the 40s for a percent return on an annual basis. And of course, most of these are only projections. It could disappoint you at 30 or less, still a nice return, or it could over perform at 50% or more. I mean, this right here is how wealth is built. I mean, this is how you do something that disrupts your entire family tree that was the new build duplex. Then I'll share one other one with you. Here from GRE marketplace. Is a single family rental. This one is in Locust Grove, Georgia. Gosh, it looks really good in the photo here with a two car garage and some brick facing, its price is 339k rent is 2350 The size is 2164 square feet, so only a little bigger than the duplex here in this new build, Georgia, single family rental, four beds, two baths, beautiful looking new construction on the inside, open floor plan, stainless steel appliances, I can't tell whether the floor is LVP or wood laminate, but it's got a flooring type that's resilient, that tenants like, and your rate of return is going to be similar to the duplex ROI that I laid out, though probably not quite as high as the duplex. I mean, with these interest rate buy downs, these could very well be the property types where, in just five years time, maybe even as little as two or three years time after owning them, you look back and you consider how opportunistic you work in this part of the market cycle where there are now more new builds that you can choose from, and a builder was willing To make you a deal to keep their product moving, because they build a little too much in some pockets of Florida, for example. So yes, these and more like them are available, and there are more in Florida, Georgia, Alabama and a number of other states. And you know, something I don't think I shared with you earlier, it's convenient. You can get a spot with one of our GRE investment coaches right on their calendars, you can look at their calendar and pick a date and time that's convenient for you. For a free coaching session, they will learn about you. They'll let you know where the real deals are, if they're right for you at all, all you've got to do is visit GRE marketplace.com, and click on the free investment coaching area. There you are with some real opportunities and an actionable resource. Until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.   Speaker 2  39:17   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice, please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively you   Keith Weinhold  39:45   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, get rich, education.com    

Get Rich Education
535: Single-Family Rentals vs. Apartment Buildings

Get Rich Education

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 6, 2025 41:27


Keith discusses the pros and cons of investing in single-family rentals versus apartment buildings. He highlights that less than 10% of U.S. building materials are imported, reducing the impact of tariffs. Single-family rentals offer better tenant quality, lower vacancy rates, and higher appreciation potential. They also have lower financing costs and are more divisible.  Conversely, apartment buildings offer economies of scale and lower per-unit maintenance costs. He emphasizes the importance of owning more property, especially new-builds, which offer lower insurance premiums and attractive financing options Work with expert investment coaches to find the best off-market deals and maximize your returns.  GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREmarketplace.com/Coach For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/535 Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai    Keith Weinhold  0:01   welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, talking about how most home building materials are US sourced and not affected by tariffs, the little understood pros and cons of investing in apartment buildings versus single family rental homes, then what really makes sense to invest in in this particular era and more today on Get Rich Education.   Speaker 1  0:28   since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show, guess who? Top Selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com   Corey Coates  1:13   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  1:29   Welcome GRE from Tallahassee, Florida to Waxahachie, Texas and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are inside, G, R, E, we are here for you every Monday, without fail, 52 weeks a year, and we have never replayed an old episode either, always original content. Thanks for being here, but you're not here for me. You are here for you as another year dawns before we get into the meaty real estate content of today's show, including single family rentals versus apartments. Take a moment to check in with your own goals. Maybe you think about that is just buying your first investment property, or maybe you own 83 rental units, and you're looking to get to 100 this year. But no matter really real estate is just the fuel for your goal. It's probably not the end goal itself is your goal to have the time freedom to watch all of your kids basketball games this year. What about beyond this year? Are you really dreaming big enough you've got to question yourself on that sometimes, for example, forget flying first class. What if you want to own your own private jet, like Taylor Swift's luxurious Dassault 7x jet for $54 million? how about real estate fueling a dream that's even bigger than that? Yet, last month, the Philadelphia Eagles received the NFL approval for the sale of an 8% interest of the team to two different family investors. Okay, do you find say that interesting owning part of a major pro sports team. And by the way, what would something like that look like for you? I mean, do you even have the headspace to conceive of such a thing? It's good to ask yourself questions like this. Sometimes that sale was based on a valuation of the team of up to $8.3 billion and yet, after all that, the Eagles owner Jeffrey Lurie, he still maintains complete control of the team. Okay, so if each of the two family investors got a 4% interest at this valuation, that is up to a $332 million investment for each family. Maybe that could be a Weinhold the family goal. We'll see about that one. And you know, when it comes to making yourself a bigger you and dreaming a bigger dream, I like to listen to what the doers say. I found it so interesting in a Jeff Bezos interview at the deal book Summit, Bezos said it's human nature to overestimate risk and underestimate opportunity. Bezos also said entrepreneurs would be well advised to try and bias against that piece of human nature, the risks are probably not as big as you perceive, and the opportunities may be bigger than you perceive. That's the end of what bezel said. I really think that that's spot on stuff. now two weeks ago, when I gave GREs national home price appreciation forecast for this year. You might remember that I said that potential Trump tariffs just don't matter as much as people think when it comes to real estate. And understanding more about why I say this, it can help you understand real estate materials and sourcing and home building in the United States, America's overwhelming majority of sourced building materials are not imported, so therefore something like a supply chain bottleneck that's more worth watching, really. It's a huge misunderstanding of the home building market to assume that most building materials come from overseas. They do not, not even 10% of residential construction building materials are imported. The National Association of Home Builders will tell you so. And really, the majority of those few imports that do come from elsewhere, they come from, Canada in the form of timber. You might have heard about that before. Now, there are some things like finishes and fixtures that get sourced from, oh, various other countries, but yeah, the biggest potential tariff expense impacting home builders would come from enacting a cost on Canadian lumber. But I and a lot of economists as well, they're pretty skeptical that the administration would really enact a tariff on a close ally like that, on Canada's raw materials. In fact, Chief Economist Lawrence Yoon of the NAR he conceded that even potential lumber tariffs, they might be given a phasing in period, and that would encourage American timber mills to fill in any production gap. It's also important to you know, remember that doors, windows, cabinets that builders utilize, they are typically produced within us, borders. Windows, doors, cabinets made domestically, unless it's something that relies on raw materials that are imported, they ought to be little affected by tariffs. One example is that kitchen sinks now they largely went from being sourced in China, then Malaysia, then Indonesia, and one main customer is now talking about sourcing them out of Mexico or the Dominican Republic. So there are a few things that less than 10% that's imported. Another imported item is flooring, which moved away from China, went to India for a while, went a little bit back to Brazil, and now more is being sourced by Ecuador. But the important thing to remember is that these are outlier components. Not even 10% of residential construction building materials are imported. That's what you want to remember, concrete, us, rebar, us. So you know, as a real estate investor, you can feel good that as your portfolio grows, each one of your properties was chiefly built with us, labor that you already knew, but it is also built predominantly with us, materials as well. How likely are single family rental investors to say that they want to buy more investment property this year. Well, year ago, 60% of them said that. Today it is up to 76% yes, that many say that they are either likely or very likely to buy single family rental property in the next 12 months, and that same group that was surveyed is also unlikely to sell their property, and they also said that they are more likely to raise the single family rent this year. And all this is according to a joint lending one resi club survey. However, most fall in the range of raising the rent between just 1% and 6% this year, so pretty modest rent increases. In fact, in every region of the US, the majority of single family rental investors describe their rental market as either strong or very strong. But can you guess the weakest region? Okay, this region is the one that still has a majority of landlords that say that their market is strong, but yet the weakest of them all is the South West, and that is largely due to over building and in the survey, what expense increased the most the past 12 months? Well, number one is that 37% of respondents these landlords said it is still insurance premiums. Second place was that 23% say property taxes are increasing the most. And then third was. And 21% say that maintenance and repair costs have increased the most for them. So the top three expenses cited expense increases that is in order, are insurance, property tax, and then maintenance and repairs. And a few weeks ago, I discussed with you, you might remember about how upgrading or remodeling a unit that helps you in at least five different ways simultaneously. Let me talk about this, since I touched on raising the rent and a little comprehension test here. Do you remember what those five ways are? the five ways your help by upgrading or remodeling a unit. And no, these are not the famed real estate pays five ways when you upgrade a vacant unit for rent, or at times, you can even actually upgrade a unit while the tenant is still occupying the property, if it's not a disruptive upgrade type. Okay, I mean, sometimes that tenant can be appreciative that they're getting an upgrade while they live there, but the five ways that upgrading a unit helps you are, first, well, obviously it helps you be able to get more rent in cash flow. Secondly, you tend to attract a higher quality tenant. And then in a five plus unit apartment building, it also increases your noi, therefore a greater overall property value. Fourth is pride of ownership. And then fifth is that higher rents help you offset those erstwhile higher operating expenses.    And here's the thing, when you get free help from one of our GRE investment coaches, like you can do at GRE marketplace.com those properties are either already extensively renovated or they are completely brand new build. So because of that fact, this means that from day one, your rent income is already optimized. You already have the best chance of landing a quality tenant, and you get some sense of having a pride of ownership. And all of those things, they're already optimized for you. You don't have to tinker with anything else, because those GRE marketplace properties, more than 95% of them are either renovated or new build. I would say, using properties conducive to the BRRRR method, they would be the few exceptions there and on GRE marketplace, you can find lower cost renovated single family homes, up to million dollar apartment buildings, either new or renovated. And another pro tip here to help you with something actionable in a premium place to source your growing income property portfolio. You've heard me mention them before, is mid south home buyers, but I'll tell you more about what's going on with them. Yeah, they're an especially good place to add your portfolio if you either haven't invested outside of your home market before, or you don't have as much liquidity right now, because their prices are just 100 to 180k they are still in that range. And yes, that 100 to 180k that is indeed the entire capital price for the asset. So that means down payment and closing costs being about 25% therefore it's just 25k to 45k Yes, you can still get started for that little with a wonderfully renovated property in either Memphis or Little Rock. Those are the two markets where mid south home buyers operates, and they are some of the most investor advantage markets in the entire nation. And then the US is one of the most investor advantage markets in the world. And last month, I met and spoke with a 19 year old guy that lives in Dallas, and he just bought his first ever investment property from mid south home buyers in Memphis. And in fact, it was his goal to have his first income producing property at age 18, and he bought it the day before he turned 19, so he barely met that goal. But yeah, they are total pros at mid south they've been doing it for over two decades. They say that they are the nation's highest rated turnkey property provider. They might even be the first provider in the nation, if you like. They also manage the property for you, and their property managers are really aware that their investors, like you, seek a return on investment, so they often have a line a waiting list. To get their properties. Last I checked the line at mid south had shortened globally attractive cash flows an A plus rating with a better business bureau, and they've now renovated over 5000 houses. And over there, they do a lot of things with their management that you just wish every provider would do, there is zero markup on maintenance. Their average occupancy rate is almost 99% average renter stays more than three and a half years. And you know that three and a half years, that duration of tenancy that could be poised to go even higher now, with the affordability crisis for these want to be first time homebuyers now, most of what mid south has are single family rentals, quite a few duplexes too. Every home has brand new components, a full one year warranty, bumper to bumper, new 30 year roofs. And then the really important part expect a high quality renter that they screen and find in place for you. So let me give you an example of two real properties. And now, if these two aren't under contract already, they probably soon will be, since I'm mentioning them. And of course, duplexes cost more than single family rentals. This duplex is in Jacksonville, Arkansas. It's just northeast of Little Rock. It is 913 and 915 Ruth Ann drive, the combined rent from both sides is $1,775 the all in cost is about 210k 2099, in total, it's 1600 square feet. So 800 square feet each side, it's two bed, one bath each side. The Property taxes are really low, $1,300 a year, really nicely renovated with good quality materials. I mean, I love owning properties like this all day. So that's a duplex in the Little Rock market. Another one from mid south is this, Memphis single family rental. The address is 400 Bonita drive. It is $1,200 rent on a $148,100 purchase price. Gosh, those numbers work. This single family rental is three bed one and a half bath, 1164 square feet. Gosh. Again, low property tax in these regions, just $1,120 annually. All right, so that property tax rate is just three quarters of 1% of the purchase price. So really low on a national basis, a big backyard, eat in kitchen, separate laundry room, walking distance to schools. I mean, this is the type of property a tenant family could live in for five or 10 years, beautifully renovated. And I'm bringing these up because these are all at prices that Metro New Yorkers or coastal Californians can barely believe. So each property has hundreds of dollars of projected positive monthly cash flow. Each one increases your income 2000 to $5,000 per year. And I have personally toured mid south home buyers office in Memphis and their properties in person in Memphis. And I've seen their properties in each stage. I walked a tear down that they were doing, and I saw all the debris in the backyard. And I have seen their hardwood floors shine inside newly renovated property that I walked with both Terry and Liz from over there at Mid South. She is a pretty popular and extremely knowledgeable woman there. Liz, you can ask for her or one of her team members about getting on the list over there. Yes, these are 100k to 180k already renovated. Yes, that's truly the all in price, and they are in decent, working class pride of ownership neighborhoods in Memphis, Tennessee and Little Rock, Arkansas. And a lot of people get their start in investing there, I suspect it's now in the hundreds, with the number of GRE listeners that have bought from them. But even veteran investors, with dozens of units, they scoop up properties from them due to the low prices, some even pay gasp, all cash, yes, no leverage for them. And mid south homebuyers has investor tours monthly, where they load everyone on a bus, and you can check out the properties, because they are really proud of what they offer there coming up next, I'm comparing single family rental investments to apartments. But yeah, right there. That was a pro tip that really ought to help you out. Expect cash flow from day one. A 19 year old is doing it. You can start yourself at mid south homebuyers.com. More next. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get rich education.    Oh geez, the national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings, so your bank is getting rich off of you. You've got to earn way more, or else you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk, your cash generates up to a 10% return and compounds year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25k you keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back. Their decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And you know how I'd know because I'm an investor in this myself, earn 10% like me and GRE listeners are. Text family to 66866, to learn about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text family to 66866.    Hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine, at Ridge lending group NMLS, 420056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start Now while it's on your mind at Ridge lendinggroup.com that's Ridge lendinggroup.com   Kathy Fettke  21:55   you this is the real wealth network's Kathy Fettke, and you are listening to The always valuable get rich education with Keith Weinhold.   Keith Weinhold  22:12   Keith, welcome back for the 535th week in a row you are listening to get rich Education. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, and I'm really grateful to have you here if you self manage your properties. One software that can really simplify your life is called Hemlane, H, E, M, as in Mary, l, a, n, e, Hemlane. You might have heard about it before. I now know quite a few people that use it. It's been getting some really good reviews. You can manage your properties from anywhere, even through your phone. And Hemlane has got some really good integrations, and now it's more than just investors like you that are using it. Agents and property managers are using Hemlane too, from advertising to tenant screening to maintenance and repair and accounting, and I just learned that they recently got all of the state specific lease agreements integrated on their platform as well. That's why it was on top of mind. If you prefer to self manage and you want to make it easier, what you can do is book a free demo and they show you how it works. Over there, it's just hemlane.com where you can do that if you like. Let them know that I told you about it.    Before I share something else actionable with you, let's do some learning and talk about apartment buildings and single family rental properties, and compare the two, some pros and cons of each. And perhaps the most obvious advantage of apartment buildings is their economies of scale. A 12 unit apartment only has one roof to maintain and one insurance policy to maintain. Another efficiency is that shared common areas and plumbing and HVAC systems that can lower your individual maintenance costs on a per unit basis as well in those apartments. And right now, at this time in the mid 2020s, decade, another advantage of apartments is that this time in the cycle is where values are just about bottoming out. Apartment buildings in a lot of national regions have fallen 20% fallen, 25% or even fallen 30% or more from their highs that were seen two to three years ago, and that's due to those higher interest rates. And the reason that this is an advantage for apartments is that you might be able to buy low, buy the dip, apartment cap rate. Have settled in the mid five range. Now, well located Class A has dropped back into the fours. Long time investors already know about some of the advantages, but you know, even some long time investors, they often overlook some of the advantages that single family rental properties have over apartments. So let me share some of those with you. Now, as you know, I started off with my first two investment properties, both being four Plex buildings, and then after that, I added larger apartment buildings and single family rental properties, and I still do buy and own single family rentals. So let me tell you about why I love them. They might have the best risk adjusted return anywhere even after 2008 great recession. Those that bought single families for cash flow persevered with single families. You get a better quality of tenant than you do in apartments. They take care of the premises. They tend to be in a better neighborhood. Single families tend to appreciate better over time, and are also more likely to be in a better school district. Single families have a retention advantage. Tenants stay longer, and that creates less vacancy and expense, and the reason that they do stay longer are those aforementioned neighborhood and school district characteristics, common areas. You know, single family rentals, they don't have any common areas that you have to clean and maintain. I think I pointed that out to you before, because that's like an overlooked profit drag that I missed when I bought my first larger apartment building. Yeah, apartments have hallways and stairs and laundry rooms and commonal door grounds that a custodian has got to service. Single families have an advantage when it comes to utility payments, because tenants often pay all of the utilities and they even care for the lawn. The larger the apartment building is, the more likely that you are going to be the one paying the utility costs. Then there's divisibility. What if you've got a property that's underperforming out there and it just isn't meeting your expectations? Well, if you had, say, 10 single family rental homes, you can sell off the one or the two that aren't performing, but yet, with a 10 unit apartment building, you've either got to keep them all or sell them all. It is not divisible. What about fire and pestilence, something a lot of people don't talk about? I mean fire and pests. They are more easily controlled in single family rentals, even if you're adequately insured, these conditions often affect multiple units and families. They can spread in an apartment building. Financing is a huge one income single family homes, they have both lower mortgage interest rates than apartments and typically lower down payment requirements than apartments. I think you already know you can secure 10 single family rental loans, single 20 if you're married at the best rates and terms through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac with just 20% down payments, you can even go less than 20% on non owner occupied in some cases, but apartments rarely, if ever, have 30 year fixed rate terms like single family rentals do, and this right here in particular, that really started bringing down a lot of apartment investors, beginning in 2022 and 2023 when their interest rates reset much higher, doubling, or even more than doubling. How about vacancy rate? It is true that if your single family is vacant, then your vacancy rates 100% if your say four Plex has one vacancy, well then your vacancy rates only 25% but yeah, the same is true if you own four single family rentals and one is vacant. How about management? If you hire professional management, your manager would likely rather deal with higher quality, single family residence. And if you're self managing, this is a demographic of people that you would likely rather handle yourself. Then there's supply and demand, there just absolutely still are not enough low cost, single families that make the best rentals nationally, demand still exceeds supply. That's the opposite condition for apartments, and this is something that's going to continue in the short and the medium term market risk that is an overlooked criterion. You've got to keep your properties filled with rent paying tenants that have jobs. If you think you'll be able to buy 10 rental units in the near future, well, your 10 unit apartment building that's only going to be in one location, and that's going to leave you exposed to just one geography's economic fortunes. But if you have 10 single families, you could have four of them in Central Florida, three of them in Fort Worth Texas, and three of them in Memphis. And you got to think about exit strategy. A lot of people don't think about this. Think about the exit before you even get in, because years down the road, when it's time to sell your income property, hopefully, after you've had years of handsome profits, and real estate pays five ways and all of that, you know what? Down the road, there is going to be a greater buyer pool for your single family rental than your apartment building. In almost every case, more buyers can afford the lower price, and unlike apartments, you even have access to a pool of buyers that might want to occupy the single family rental themselves. It might even be your current tenant that buys it, but the market and the numbers have to make sense for someone to want to buy an apartment building, but if an owner occupant buys it from you, that family doesn't have to have any numbers that make sense. So your single family rental is more liquid on your exit and professional management, that's another reason that single families can make sense. Because see single family rentals, they can be spread all over a metro area diffusely, and if you self manage, that is a lot of little trips that can get to be a hassle. But if you use a pro manager, well, they're the ones that have to manage the scattered sites. And a lot of times, managers don't charge you much more to handle your single families than they do your apartment buildings. So right now, there were a ton of advantages, a good 15 or 20 advantages there that single family rentals have over apartment buildings. And it's important I discuss them, because there are a lot of investors that don't factor all of those in. Even veteran investors tend to overlook some of those things. Again, I really like apartment buildings as well. They could very well be my second favorite investment to single family rentals, and I would like to now, with that understanding, really say something that I probably don't say quite often enough if you want to benefit from all these wealth building forces here that I've talked to on the show for for more than 10 years. You need to own more property, or get started with your first property.   Now I've already given you one great resource for that. And yes, what do they say? The turtle never got ahead until he stuck his neck out. Now the uncertainty, I mean uncertainty. That's just that condition that never completely abates. But in a sense, I think you can say today that the future is already here because we've got substantially more economic certainty and political certainty than we have had in recent years. The presidency was decided peacefully. Recession fears have abated. The Fed after screwing up with high inflation a few years ago, they have now engineered a soft landing, meaning lower inflation with still high employment. So now is a good time. What about real estate prices? I'll tell you something about that all of my investor life, every single property that I've ever bought, without exception, it felt aggressively priced at the time, and then, typically, it always happens when as little as one year or two years goes by, it already looked like a good decision. And I'd like to encourage you to do something else in this era, if you can swing it, buy new build property. That's something that wasn't always true. They do cost more. It's probably going to be 300k plus for a new build rental, single family home, but either way, be sure to own more property, existing or new benefit from what we talk about now. In some parts of the nation, including Florida, builders built a few too many properties, and they are willing to give you a discount for that. They might even cut the price a little and give you a rate discount, buying down discount points for you so that you can get a mortgage loan interest rate in the fives or even in the fours on new build income property right now in a volatile insurance market, new builds also have some super low insurance premiums because the property is built to today's more stringent codes. I mean, a. Just put an example out here. If you say, buy 10 rental, single family homes for $3 million total, 10 properties, 300k each. Okay, it's just 5% appreciation, which is what I projected for this year in our home price appreciation forecast. Two weeks ago, on $3 million worth of property, that's 150k per year, every year growing that you can pull out of the properties completely tax free. But to get that 150k per year tax free, you would have only had to make a 750k down payment and closing costs 25% on this that's not even counting the cash flow that the properties generate, plus your loan, of course, is simultaneously being paid down by tenants. And on top of that, inflation would just relentlessly debase your two and a quarter million dollars of fixed rate debt. Yes, all while the appreciation and the cash flow occurs, inflation debases your debt by another $67,500 every single year, and your tenant pays down some more principal on top of that. And then there are the other tax benefits too. And this is where you are massively getting ahead. All right, that was a $3 million portfolio, but if you can only do 1/10 of that own, just say one more new build, 300k single family rental, then you get 1/10 of those benefits that I mentioned, and either way, a total return on investment of 30% or more annually that is achievable. It's actually even conservative. I mean, just with the 5% appreciation, with four to one leverage, that's a 20% return just on the appreciation component alone.    And our GRE investment coaches can make this real for you. They can talk to you about these properties and others, including those mortgage rate buy downs into the fives and the fours properties in investor advantage markets in Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Oklahoma, Texas, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, Arkansas and some others. In fact, let me give you two examples of what our investment coaches can help you with right now. This is pretty fun, actually, as I talk about these properties, because you might even end up owning the ones that I discuss right here on the show. The first of two is a brand new build, single family in Palma Coast, Florida. Gosh, it's a ranch home. Really good looking. Two car garage, is what I'm looking at here. It's 1200 square feet, three, bed, two, bath. It's called the Bing model, and it's got the type of layout that tenants really want today. I mean, your resident could stay there for a long time. $2,100, in rent for a purchase price of $289,900 I mean those numbers, along with the mortgage rate buy down to four and a half percent, plus new build insurance premiums that are going to be low. That really works today. That is really attractive there in Palm Coast, Florida. And the last one I'll mention is an older single family rental in Canton, Ohio. Yes, that's the home of the Pro Football Hall of Fame. The address is 2422 6th Street, Northwest in Canton. Rent of 1225, and a purchase price of just $135,000 The size is 1036 square feet, and it is four beds, one and a half baths. The renovations really look quite good. As you recall, those benefits of buying property that's already renovated, like I discussed earlier, all for 135k in today's market. So these properties and so many more like them, that's what our investment coaches can help you with. Their service is always completely free, but first what they do is they learn a little about you, and they can then put together an entire investment real estate portfolio for you, if you like. So they'll assess and evaluate what you've got, where you want to go, what property types are conducive to aligning with your strategy, and are there any best geographies for you? And more. So it's really important to stay in touch with your coach. I mean, we might find out, for example, tomorrow, that a home builder that we work with decided to offer some massive mortgage rate buy down incentives for you because, say, they built too much. So I really encourage you to set up that touch point for the first time, or to stay in touch and see what's happening, free coaching off market opportunities, and it's easy to set up a short meeting over the phone or on zoom with an investment coach. You can do that at GRE marketplace. It really can be quite a life changing venture for you from GRE marketplace.com just click on the coaching area until next week. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.   Speaker 2  40:49   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively.   Keith Weinhold  41:09   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, getricheducation.com.  

Get Rich Education
534: Rising Prices Lead to Social Decay with Doug Casey

Get Rich Education

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 30, 2024 40:52


Discover how inflation is destroying the value of your money and eroding the ethical foundations of society. Legendary author Doug Casey reveals the insidious ways rising prices lead to social decay, unethical behavior, and the breakdown of trust.  Learn how to protect your prosperity by shifting away from the falling dollar and into real assets like gold, real estate, and carefully selected investments.  Don't let inflation rob you - get the insights you need to thrive in this challenging economic environment. Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”.  Resources: Visit internationalman.com to read Doug Casey's weekly articles and watch his "Doug Casey's Take" videos on YouTube. Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/534 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching:GREmarketplace.com/Coach Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai    Keith Weinhold  0:01   Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, inflation does not mean rising prices. Inflation is an expansion of the money supply which results in rising prices, and it leads to wider societal decay and moral breakdowns in ways that you've never thought about before. It misdirects inflation frustration toward people like housing providers and grocers, we explore it today on get rich education.   Mid south home buyers, I mean, they're total pros, with over two decades is the nation's highest rated turnkey provider. Their empathetic property managers use your ROI as their North Star. So it's no wonder that smart investors just keep lining up to get their completely renovated income properties like it's the newest iPhone. They're headquartered in Memphis and have globally attractive cash flows and A plus rating with a better business bureau and now over 5000 houses renovated. There's zero markup on maintenance. Let that sink in, and they average a 98.9% occupancy rate, while their average renter stays more than three and a half years. Every home they offer has brand new components, a bumper to bumper, one year warranty, new 30 year roofs. And wait for it, a high quality renter. Remember that part and in an astounding price range, 100 to 180k. I've personally toured their office and their properties in person in Memphis, get to know Mid South. Enjoy cash flow from day one. Start yourself right now at mid south homebuyers.com that's mid south homebuyers.com   you know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info. Oh, geez. Today's experience limits your free articles access, and it's got paywalls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers. It's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read, and when you start the letter, you also get my one hour fast real estate video. Course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream letter. It wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now. Just text GRE to 66866, while it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text GRE to 66 866.   Speaker 1  3:12   you're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  3:28   We are the GRE from Albany, New York to New Albany, Ohio, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, and this is get rich education. You have probably heard it been said by now that money must have three attributes. It is a store of value, a medium of exchange and a unit of account. The US Dollar does not meet the first one store of value. That's due to inflation. How is the dollar a store of value, it is not so then the dollar is a mere currency, not money. You can make the case that gold is a store of value, maybe that Bitcoin is, although it's got a short track record and it's a volatile ride the S, p5, 100, you could say that's nothing more than a store of value long term. When you understand all the drags on it, you're only treading water long term with the s, p, I've discussed that on shows earlier this year. That leaves real estate as not just a good long term, stable store a value, but when it's done right, it is the vehicle where inflation actually increases your purchasing power. And here's a new way to think about it, money is your time and energy captured in an abstracted form for the government to take out debt. They are borrowing your time and energy. Government debt is the closest thing we've ever seen to time travel.They're borrowing the collective time and energy from your future. How do you achieve time travel? You borrow human time and energy from the future currency debasement steals the time and energy of you and everyone alive today. That's why you've got to protect yourself. And what this does is that it actually increases your time preference. Yeah, the term time preference, that's something that Bitcoin authors like Dr saifedean Amos often use time preference and actually think that it's sort of a confusing term. Time preference, though, it sounds like a good thing, it's actually a bad thing. It means that you would rather consume now and over consume now instead of later. Having a high time preference means that you want to all out, ball out right now, and not consider your future. Well, that's what inflation does whenever you see the term time preference out there. I think the best way for you to remember what that means is think of it instead as a now preference. I think now preference is more intuitive than time preference. Teach me how to Dougie, yes, we've got public figure and mega popular author Doug Casey back with us today to discuss how rising prices lead to social decay and makes humans have a higher time preference resultantly, I guess that is teaching us how to Dougie. Yes, indeed, that is a reference to that, like 15 year old song, teach me how to Dougie, and we would drop some bars of that song right now. Oh, you know that me and the team here, we really want to, but we would probably have some royalty issues with that one here, and I'll tell you that is such a stupid song. Teach me how to Dougie, but at the same time, once you've heard it, the next thing that you want to do is hear it again somehow. But it's pretty likely that Doug Casey and I have some more important things to talk about. So fortunately for you, rather than discuss a 2010, rap song any further, we're going to discuss how rising prices lead to social decay.   Monetary inflation is even worse than you think. This era's rising prices and falling values actually lead to social decay. Villains and unethical actors are getting rewarded and they're stealing from you. We're going to discuss just how the international man himself, a legendary and generationally popular author, is back with us for a sobering look at inflation and social decay today. Hey, welcome back in. Doug Casey.    Doug Casey  8:04   Nice to talk to you, Keith. I'm speaking to you at the moment from my farm in Uruguay, which is one of the, I would say, two, most stable countries in Latin America, and one of the two or three most stable countries in the Western Hemisphere, there's a lot of real estate in the world, other than in the US. And I know that you mostly talk about real estate. I've actually done a lot of real estate too, all around the world, in the Orient and in Europe and South America, and, of course, a lot in the US and Canada. So I'm generally friendly to real estate, and it's been very, very good to me.   Keith Weinhold  8:44   Well, you're truly living up to the International Man moniker again today, joining us from that small South American nation of Uruguay and Doug. Before we talk about the inflation and the social decay, what are property taxes like there in that part of Uruguay. And I know you often spend time in Buenos Aires Argentina as well. If you can talk to us in terms of the percent of the value of the property that you pay in property tax each year, which tends to be one to one and a quarter percent on an average in the United States.   Doug Casey  9:13   that's right. And I think in some states like Illinois, it can go up to about 2% if I'm not mistaken, which means that you really don't own your property. If you don't pay your real estate taxes for for a year or two, you'll find out who really owns it, right? But taxes are high in South America, but generally, not too bad on real estate per se, certainly not on farmland, but farmland everywhere in the world doesn't pay much in the way of real estate taxes, and that's certainly the case here in Uruguay, and the same in Argentina, which might be worth more discussion, because Argentina is doing something that's actually unique in world history right now. And I.hope it's a story that ends well, because they're going in the right direction. But to answer your question, if you buy a condo or a house in a city in Uruguay or Argentina or most of these countries down here, you're going to pay real estate taxes, but it's less than in the US typically, like a half a percent, when they get you in South America is value added taxes, or anything you buy, including labor. In most places, you have to pay the government someplace in between 18 or 20 or 22% depending it's like a huge extra sales tax that's hidden in the cost of the item. And of course, they have income taxes down here, just as what they do in the US, approximately American levels. But on the bright side, not that I know about these things from a firsthand point of view, but these Latin American countries are kind of corrupt and not as completely grasping as the US is they're not as competent in going after you, and don't have a worldwide reach, which the US does.    Keith Weinhold  11:07   Yeah. Oh, well, that's an interesting comparison there. And yeah, Doug, a lot of Latin American nations have had high rates of inflation in both the recent past and now in a piece that you recently wrote is titled, inflation and social decay, rising prices and falling values. And here in the United States, whether it's at the grocery store or the mall or restaurants or airports or anywhere you turn, people really are finding inferior goods and services yet at higher prices. I mean, everyone sees that now. And Doug, I know that you've maintained that living standards have taken a big step, not forward, but backward, and are trending even worse. So tell us about it.    Doug Casey  11:49   Well, the way that you become wealthy is by producing more than you consume and saving the difference. That's the basic formula. Produce more than you consume and save the difference. But when the government inflates the currency, and the government's entirely at fault with it, they have the printing presses. They control the currency. It makes it very, very hard to save, and you can't get ahead. You can't build capital which you need in order to invest and become a capitalist. So inflation is the enemy of the average man, and it's the enemy of society as a whole, but some people do very well because of inflation. Why? Because in the US, it's the people in basically New York and Washington and other big cities that stand very close to the fire hydrant of money that comes out of the government, and they get to drink deeply before something trickles down to the plebs below inflation will destroy a country, and that's why in Latin America in particular, you've got very rich people who are usually connected to the government, who get that money first, and a lot of poor peasants who don't get it, and I'm afraid that the US has been going in that direction for some years.    Keith Weinhold  13:08   Well, I'm so glad Doug that you gave us the reminder that the government is the source of inflation. That's where it all begins, because people often blame the landlord for higher rents, but they blame the grocer for the higher beef prices, but the landlord in the grocer, they're only the messenger, not the source. You're absolutely right. It's a question of very bad economic education throughout the school system, all the way up to college and post grad work the butcher and the baker and the oil maker produce real goods that make your standard of living higher. They're the heroes in this scenario. The government, which prints up money through its deficits that it runs, is the villain in this and I never cease to be amazed and shocked how people look at politicians to be their saviors, right? They're heroes. They're not. They're the villains in this piece. They serve no useful purpose. And the same goes for most of these agencies that they set up, which once again, make things easier for the guys on top, that have capital, that have political connections, that can hire the lawyers, hire the accountants to twist things in their favor, makes it very hard for the little guy who can't jump over the hurdles that are put up by regulation as well as taxes as well as inflation.    Tell us about how inflation erodes ethical standards.    Doug Casey  14:38   Well, that's a problem too, because if you can't trust money, the validity of contracts becomes questionable if you borrow. It's terrible in a country like Argentina, if you borrowed 100 pesos from me and only gave it back to me next year, it'd be worth half as much. But you say, Hey, here's your 100 pesos, but you're subtly cheating the person that you borrowed the money from, right? And it erodes trust. Not only that, but inflation tends to make the banking system unsound for a number of reasons. If you can't trust your bank, you really can't trust any financial institutions. So money is the lifeblood of a society. It represents everything that you want to do and want to provide for other people in the future. And if the government destroys your money, it's destroying your future life. And that erodes trust. It makes people think in terms of, I want it all, and I want it now. I'm not willing to wait, because in the future, I don't know what anything is going to be worth. So it leads to an unstable society. And in an unstable society, you don't trust anything.    Keith Weinhold  15:57   right? Well, first, I love your example of the 100 peso loan. I mean, how would one know how much interest to charge in a runaway inflationary environment? Because some people don't realize that high inflation also means more volatile levels of inflation, and banking and lending really break down. You know, Doug, I've got my own example or two about how inflation introduces unethical behavior when the big wave of inflation started to hit in 2021 and 2022 in the United States, you know my favorite cold brew bottled coffee, which I drank because it had good ingredients in it, rather than raising the price on that with inflation, they replaced their higher quality sweeteners in my cold brew coffee, like stevia and monk fruit extract with a junky sucralose sweetener, they could keep their price the same that way. They sure didn't point out that they substituted a junkier sweetener. And really this is another form of inflation called skimplation That was pretty sneaky behavior here.   Doug Casey  17:00   you're absolutely correct, Keith, and this further breaks down the bonds of trust in society, because you no longer really trust that manufacturer, and that's just your one particular coffee manufacturer, but it's happening across the board with all manufacturers, so no wonder people start saying, Hey, I hate these companies. They're trying to rip me off. Well, they're not trying to rip you off. They're just trying to survive the consequences of the government debasing the currency. So we have to assign blame where it belongs. That's a very good example that you just gave. I think.   Keith Weinhold  17:35   yeah. And I think another way that inflation introduces unethical behavior is say that there are two different manufacturers of wine, and they're selling their bottle of wine for $20 then the currency supply doubles. Okay, well, one manufacturer can go ahead and keep selling their $20 wine with inferior ingredients. Well over here, the honest guy, the other company, they double their price to $40 and they continue to use good quality ingredients. But what do consumers notice? They notice the price more than the ingredients. So therefore the unethical one that waters down their wine ingredients but keeps their price low actually gets rewarded and will get more business.    Doug Casey  18:15   You're right, certainly in the short run, but in the long run, inflation is going to destroy both of them, but for different reasons, inflation really destroys the basis of society itself, because it makes it so much harder to produce and you don't have any savings to consume. So money is the basis of society. When you destroy the money you're destroying the basis of society itself.    Keith Weinhold  18:43   We're talking with Doug Casey about his recent piece that you can find@internationalman.com it'stitled inflation and social decay, rising prices and falling values. He also hosts the eponymous show, Doug Casey's take more with Doug when we come back, including how inflation leads to a more litigious society and actually creates more lawsuits. That's straight ahead. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold.   oh geez, the national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings, so your bank is getting rich off of you. You've got to earn way more, or else you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk, your cash generates up to a 10% return and compounds year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25k   you keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back. Their decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And you know how I'd know, because I'm an investor in this myself, earn 10% like me and GRE listeners are text family to 66866, to learn about freedom, family investments, liquidity fund, on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text, family to 66866   Hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine, at Ridge lending group  NMLS, 42056. They provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties, they help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start Now while it's on your mind at Ridge lendinggroup.com That's ridgelendinggroup.com   Richard Duncan  20:53   this is Richard Duncan, publisher and macro watch, listen to get rich Education with Geek Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.   Keith Weinhold  21:11   Welcome back to get rich education. We're talking with legendary author Doug Casey. In fact, his classic book strategic investing broke the record for receiving the largest advance ever paid for a financial book at the time. And Doug, I know, in one of your latest pieces, you talked about how inflation actually leads to a more litigious society as well. Tell us about that.   Doug Casey  21:34   The US is actually the most litigious country in the world, and it's because a company may have a hard time meeting its obligations when the currency that its obligations are denominated in turns into a floating abstraction, and if you can't fulfill your obligation, is the way you would righteously on a handshake. Might you may want to call in your lawyers to help you survive. So it percolates through all areas of society.    Keith Weinhold  22:06   Now, on top of inflation, I think there's a problem that's really in one's face today, America has a tip inflation problem where increasingly you are being asked for tips at places where you weren't beforehand. And I think a lot of that really began with COVID. Places like Subway restaurant began asking for tips even though you're standing up to order your food, and it was a way for you to show appreciation that they showed up during the pandemic. But when the pandemic waned, the tip request didn't go away. In fact, I think they've increased. So we have tip inflation on top of inflation. Doug, I recently attended a conference, and the little convenience stores inside the event site hotel, they stated that they are now cashless. Okay, so you're going to be paying with a card, and when you bring your groceries up to the counter, there's a little screen, and they ask you two to three questions. You have to answer two to three prompts if you don't want to leave a tip. This is just at a convenience store. This holds up the line. It's a little frustrating. It wears me out. They say humans can only make 35,000 decisions a day. I just spent three or four of them saying I don't want to leave a tip for this sandwich that I just brought to the counter. And you know what's funny, Doug, I almost consider if this gets annoying after I deny the ridiculous tip request when they didn't provide any additional service. You know what I think about asking Doug, asking that person, oh, okay, well, you asked me to pay more than we agreed to. Where's my discount? Now let me ask you a few questions about my discount now that you ask that I pay more than what we agreed to. So tenations become a problem.    Doug Casey  23:47   Actually, it's worse than that, because now that the world is going to computer money less cash, they give you some choices. I know at Starbucks, this is the case. You want to leave a 10% or a 15% or a 20% tip, those are the things that you can check to make it easy for yourself. But wait a minute, I just wanted a coffee, and what services this person provided for me, other than just drawing a coffee for me and I'm given a choice of it used to be that tips were this is a long time ago, but it's still the way it is in many countries in the world, the tips were just the excess change that you left there. Or the waiter in many countries in the world, like, well, two I can think of off the top of my hand, or Japan, where tipping is is not accepted. In fact, I remember in one Tokyo restaurant, I left some money on the table, and the waitress ran down the street after me to give me my money back. She thought that I inadvertently left it on the table and it was supposed to be a tip. Other countries, like New Zealand, there's no tipping. Certainly out in the country, it's only in the big cities. So yeah, it's become a rather pernicious habit, but I understand, because the average guy doing manual hourly labor like waiting is having a really hard time making it these days, and that's evidenced by the fact that both Trump and Kamala Harris were talking about making tips exempt from income taxes, because you might have to pay the government, well, forget about it. You have to pay them 15% in Social Security taxes, which are non deductible, and then you have to pay income taxes on top of the Social Security taxes. So I I understand why you'd want to do that, but inflation is just another kind of tax, actually, when we get right down to it, that's what it is. It's a subtle tax. It's a tax that you don't see. It's a tax that you blame on the person providing the service of the good, rather than the government, which if they tax you directly. Yeah, you see that, but you don't see that. Inflation is just another form of tax.    Keith Weinhold  25:59   Sure, an income tax or a property tax is sort of front stage inflation really a backstage tax being surreptitious. To your point, well, if the government is so bad and does such a poor job of issuing currency, Doug, what are your thoughts about the government just getting out of the currency issuance business? Whatever that would look like, a gold standard, a Bitcoin standard. Does the government have to be the one that issues the currency?    Doug Casey  26:27   No, it doesn't actually look and we might want to forget about this concept of currency. You've heard that the BRICS, a bunch of third world countries, Russia, India, China, Brazil, many others who want to get out of using the dollar, they don't want to use the dollar because the dollar is turned into a floating abstraction, and they can't trust the US government, as the Russians found, because all dollars clear through New York. So what are they going to do? They don't trust each other's phony baloney currencies. I think that those countries are going to go to gold, not a gold currency, gold, which was money since day one of human history. Actually, I think that's going to happen in the US. And for many, many years, I've suggested that people do their saving in gold, not in dollars. I've been saving in gold for the last 50 years, starting when gold was in the low 40s. And as you do with savings, you put it aside, you forget about it. And the gold that I first saved at $40 an ounce, it's now at 2700 more or less, has treated me very well. I think that people should be saving with something that's not going to lose value the way the dollar does. If the dollar is in a lot of trouble, it could dry up and blow away, quite frankly. So one reason why you want to own real things, commodities, properties, gold, things of that nature, or stocks, if you choose the company well.    Keith Weinhold  27:59   I've helped people that have been hesitant about putting a little bit of money into gold or Bitcoin with the mindset of, don't think about how you are buying gold or Bitcoin. Think of it rather as how you are shifting a portion of your prosperity from dollars, pesos, yen or euros over into gold or Bitcoin. Really, you're just shifting some of your prosperity there. Is the way that I like to think about it. But Doug, as we've been talking about inflation, in this theme of government really having intervention and distortions into free markets, including things like inflation. You know, I've got something that I'm thinking about, and you might help shape or change my thinking about this. We generally champion free markets around here that's typically a good economic system. However, is a free market with some guardrails on it actually helpful? Or do you think that the guardrails shouldn't be there? You mentioned Donald Trump a little bit earlier? One thing, for example, that he says he wants to do Doug is fire the current FTC chair, Lina Khan now the Federal Trade Commission. What their role has really been in the past few years is they spend a lot of their energy cracking down on fraudsters, but Lina Khan wants to bust up mega corporations. So really, what I'm getting at is, can one of the guardrails that's important be that say the FTC make sure there isn't like a an early 1900 style, John D Rockefeller monopoly. What are your thoughts with the government's role in breaking up monopolies? Is that a valid guardrail on the free market?    Doug Casey  29:30   No, I don't think it is. Look, you've got two kinds of monopolies. You've got market monopolies and legal monopolies. A market monopoly is one where the company provides the good or service so cheaply at such a high quality that nobody can compete with them. It's not worth it. Well, leave it alone. And if they start pricing their product too high, or the quality falls enough in a free market, Competitors will come in. That's one type of monopoly. nothing wrong with that kind of monopoly. The other kind of monopoly is a legal monopoly where the government says you have a franchise to do this, you and only you can do it like, well, like almost anything today, where you have to, you have to get government approval in order to provide the good or service. Like railroads, for instance, you couldn't start a new railroad today if you wanted to. So if it's a legal monopoly, you're fighting the law. If it's a market monopoly, you just have to provide a service or good, cheaper or better. So no, I don't think the FTC or any of these three Leader Letter agencies serve a useful purpose. All they do is add to costs and slow down competition and employ people that stick their nose into your business and tell you what you can or can't do both as a producer and a consumer. Look, the government is force. It's coercion. It should only do three things in a civilized society, we want to limit coercion. That means protect you from coercion outside the country with the military inside the country, with the police force, and allow you to adjudicate disputes peacefully without resorting to coercion through a court system. Everything else can be solved through market processes. Believe it or not, I know that shocks most people to hear they're so used to thinking that big brother is watching over a man is going to save my bank and protect me from bad people out there. I wish there are plenty, but it's not the best way to do it. Frankly.   Keith Weinhold  31:33   you've done a good job of drawing a distinct line as to what you think government should stay out of but what about this monopoly power? What if, even with AI inroads, Google still owns more than 90% of the search markets, so therefore they can charge exorbitant prices. Shouldn't something like Google be broken up in an antitrust lawsuit?    Doug Casey  31:51   No, no, it shouldn't, because there are other companies out there that provide people are just used to using Google. I use it myself, but there are at least a half a dozen, and I'm not a computer jock, so I think there are more than that, other services out there that you can use instead of Google, and believe me, I don't like these big companies. I mean, they act like semi governments onto themselves. No, you don't want the government to step in, because the government is a far greater danger than Google is. Google can't break down your door at three in the morning with cops and haul you off to jail. Google can just charge you more than you'd want and do other things like that. But you have other alternatives to Google. It's not an active over weeding physical danger the way the government does. And I'm not saying I like Google either. I don't. Let's admit it, they provide us a tremendous service at basically zero cost, and if you can find ways to get around them, I think that's great. Like I said, it's wonderful what they do. But that doesn't mean I'm a fan of them because of the way that, like any big organization, sure, they try to take advantage around the edges. Unfortunately, that's a negative part of human nature. But the government is not the solution to the problem.    Keith Weinhold  33:13   And of course, this doesn't mean I'm a pro regulation person. Some states and jurisdictions landlord and tenant act can be overbearing.For example, the FDA is not doing a good job with what is allowed to be put into our food, either. So the size of the regulation probably is too big.    Doug Casey  33:31   My old friend Dirk Pearson, who wrote a book called Life Extension, a practical scientific approach, was a huge bestseller some years ago, and Derek always liked to say the FDA it kills more people every year than the Defense Department does decade. And he's right.    Keith Weinhold  33:51   Yeah, that is a pretty sad indictment on the state of things there. But do you have given us quite a few things to think about with how inflation is actually an unethical source, and some more thoughts about free markets. If our audience wants to connect with you, what's the best way for them to do that?    Doug Casey  34:07   Well, go to internationalman.com I write an article there every week, but every day we have great articles by great people. So go to internationalman.com that's one thing on YouTube. Doug Casey's take, where I have a conversation on these and many, many other subjects with Matt Smith every week. And the last thing is, since you can say some things in the form of fiction that you dare not, or better not say in the form of non fiction, right, I have three novels, speculator, drug lord and assassin that I think are excellent reads, so go on Amazon and pick them up too.    Keith Weinhold  34:47   Yeah, Casey, it's been insightful as usual. Thanks for coming back onto the show today.    Doug Casey  34:52   Appreciate it, Keith, it's been a pleasure.   Keith Weinhold  35:00   Yeah, good insight from Doug. As always, tipflation has become awfully intrusive. I recently made a donation on my nephew's behalf for his soccer team or something like that on the donation platform, okay, they called that donation my pledge. Okay, sure, but before I finaled out my pledge on the site, they next asked me if I would like to leave a tip on top of my pledge. Sheesh. Well, do you blame the donation platform for trying to up charge me after I'm just trying to be giving or instead, after listening to today's episode, do you blame the government for inflation in spending? Is this all just a result of that? And now we have listeners that when they find this show, they want to go back and listen to all currently, 500 plus episodes. Well, if you're listening to this five or 10 years from now, you might find my tipflation stories unusual because the practice could be so common and embedded into society by then. Right now, it's still pretty novel here in the mid 2020s there's a rapid rate of change on the tip flation front. And the next time that you are asked for an out of bounds tip, are you next going to ask the merchant where your discount is and make them answer three questions about it.   And by the way, the cold brew coffee that I mentioned with Doug is not the erstwhile la Columbia brand that I talked about two weeks ago. My favorite and real go tos are the Slate and O, W, Y, N brands. That way you get 20 grams of protein with your coffee and no cheap sweeteners in those two. Now, when it comes to the anti trust stuff, breaking up monopolies and duopolies, see real estate is super fractured with who owns it. I mean, even with more institutional buying of real estate, like we've seen this past decade on a national basis, these huge groups that own 1000 homes or more. All those groups, they only own about 710, of 1%of the US single family housing stock. So real estate investing is free market and it is fractured. It is not at all consolidated.    And now let me give you something outside of real estate, an example from another segment of business, supermarkets. There is no need for you to frantically hoard Annie's mac and cheese. It's not good for you anyway. But two courts rejected the Kroger Albertsons merger earlier this month, and that effectively broke up the deal that would have brought together two of the largest grocery store chains in America, the decision that really gave a sweet victory to FTC chair Lena Khan, like I mentioned there in the interview, but her time at the agency's Helm, that's going to end in a few weeks with the beginning of a new presidential administration. But see, in my opinion, and going after antitrust cases, she was pro free market and pro competition, which I see as a good thing. That way you have more companies vying for your business with better quality and lower prices. But I do like to listen to the other side, because, like I said in the interview, I'm still forming an opinion on this. That's why I wanted Doug Casey's take. And in this case, the two grocery companies, they had argued that creating a larger entity merging them both that would allow it to compete with Walmart and offer higher wages and lower prices. That is their side of it. Now Andrew Ferguson, he is the apparent new FTC chair. He has promised to reverse what he called Khan's anti business agenda, so we're not going to see as much antitrust crackdown from the looks of things. And note that there is also an antitrust division at the DOJ, so their influence weighs in as well. This really hasn't been much of a problem for real estate, one of the most highly fractured major markets around and now you do have though adjacent industry, like the home builder space, where there is a home building giant like Lennar, but even the home builder space isn't nearly as consolidated and anti competitive as say, the online search industry or the airline industry. I would like to wish you a happy new year. As always, we are back next week with more great content coming up on the show. We go in depth on some real estate asset classes and also how you can really, accionably and seriously reduce your tax burden next year with vehicles like bonus depreciation and cost segregation, simplifying those things for you, these are exactly the types of tools about how the rich get ahead by knowing how the tax laws benefit them, and pretty soon you will too.   If you like what you hear here each week, please go ahead and tell a friend about the show. I would really appreciate it. Until then, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.   Speaker 2  40:15   Nothing on this show should be considered specific personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively.   Keith Weinhold  40:43   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, get rich, education.com

Get Rich Education
533: GRE's 2025 Home Price Appreciation Forecast

Get Rich Education

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 23, 2024 44:24


Keith unveils our 2025 National Home Price Appreciation Forecast. Learn the factors driving the housing market and discover why Keith's predictions have been spot-on for the past 3 years. Gain the insights you need to make strategic real estate moves in the year ahead. Don't miss this must-listen episode packed with actionable real estate insights. The Fannie Mae home purchase sentiment index rose, indicating growing consumer confidence. Trump's immigration and tariffs policies and their potential impact on housing demand and labor market disruption. Hear about the impact of the under supply of housing in the US and the potential impact on home prices. Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” or for Spotify. Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/533 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching:GREmarketplace.com/Coach Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai    Keith Weinhold  0:00   Welcome to GRE I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, today is the day that I'm giving you our 2025 national home price appreciation forecast. You'll get the exact percent that I expect home prices to rise for Fall next year. Learn the factors that really move prices. Importantly, I follow up and you get the results of previous years forecasts too. Will it be a holly jolly forecast or more Grinch like today on Get Rich Education.     Mid-south home buyers. I mean, they're total pros, with over two decades as the nation's highest rated turnkey provider, their empathetic property managers use your ROI as their North Star. So it's no wonder that smart investors just keep lining up to get their completely renovated income properties like it's the newest iPhone. They're headquartered in Memphis and have globally attractive. Cash Flows, an A plus rating with a better business bureau and now over 5000 houses renovated. There's zero markup on maintenance. Let that sink in, and they average a 98.9% occupancy rate, while their average renter stays more than three and a half years. Every home they offer has brand new components, a bumper to bumper, one year warranty, new 30 year roofs. And wait for it, a high quality renter. Remember that part and in an astounding price range, 100 to 180k I've personally toured their office and their properties in person in Memphis, get to know Mid South. Enjoy cash flow from day one. Start yourself right now at mid southhomebuyers.com that's mid south homebuyers.com   you know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info. Oh, geez. Today's experience limits your free articles access, and it's got paywalls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers. It's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read, and when you start the letter, you also get my one hour fast real estate video. Course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream letter. It wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now just text GRE to 66866, while it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text GRE to 66866.   Corey Coates  3:12   you're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  3:28   Welcome to GRE from North port, Florida to North Pole, Alaska and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are listening to get rich education episode 533 Yes, your favorite slack jawed real estate podcaster here is indeed the GRE founder. I'm also an active Forbes real estate council member, best selling author. I write our weekly Don't quit your Daydream newsletter. And perhaps most importantly, I am an active real estate investor, I am here to help you invest well in real estate, and that is because most Americans have enough saved for an absolutely incredible single day of retirement. Look the content that you choose to listen to will shape your behavior, it'll even gradually alter your identity over time and forge your dreams. Middle class financial advice will keep you squarely in the middle class. They get robbed of the fruits of their labor through taxes. Get robbed of their purchasing power through inflation, and they get robbed of their financial future by staying financially illiterate. I mean, if you're grinding hard and sacrificing experiences to be debt free at 36 well then that means you aren't using other people's money. You, it confirms that you've got no leverage. Why celebrate that? Celebrate financial freedom or a great vacation, or, you know, anything else, like with your friends and family to the Canary Islands. I mean, that's stuff that's worth celebrating, that's extraordinary in this one and only life that you got. I love the old African proverb, if you want to go fast, go alone. If you want to go far, go together. You and I are on this journey together. Dream of living the life where you just give a light touch to some of your investments while they are building your wealth, just adjust the sales of your ship a little here and there. Now. We'll get into the big picture real estate forces in my exact percent home price appreciation figure shortly. But doesn't that sound amazing where you can just do this? I mean, that's what I do. I just give a light touch to my investments. For example, at the beginning of this month, I looked at the statements as they came in in emails from my property managers in various real estate markets, like I usually do now when you have a perfect month as a real estate investor, US landlords, or should I say, housing providers, acknowledging last week's show we develop our own vernacular. A perfect month is when you have 100% rental occupancy and no repair items. Once though you have more than about five rental units, it's hard to ever have a perfect month. It's always good to budget something toward long term vacancy and maintenance. But I had a pretty good month last month. For some reason, my properties needed a few new appliances, a replaced fridge. Here, a new microwave. There, a lot of appliances like a fridge, you know, they can still look pretty close to new, even if they're used. That's fine for a rental. This was just a $280 fridge replacement, for example, in this one rental, single family home of mine. So yeah, just that monthly scan of your property manager statement, seeing that income and expenses look kind of reasonable to you, and then going about your day and the rest of your month. Now, it wasn't always that way for me. As I started and grew, I self managed my own properties for the first six or seven years, and sometimes, you know, something will happen where I want to get more proactive and maybe take, say, a 90 minute block of time to shop for lower insurance premiums if I see those rates rising in a certain market or something like that, but that's how it feels to give a light touch to your active direct real estate investments. Keep that going, because this is all happening while you keep other people's money working for you, the banks, the governments and the tenants.    Hey, something that's become newsworthy, an index measuring consumer confidence in the housing market, rose again last month, and that is the latest sign that potential property buyers and sellers are growing more accustomed to today's mortgage rates and prices. The Fannie Mae home purchase sentiment index that has now increased to 75 points. So the index has risen 11 points or more than 16% in the last year. So there is, however, not one shred of evidence, for example, that sub 3% mortgage rates are coming back anytime soon, maybe not even in this decade or in your entire lifetime. Who really knows? I mean, it's soon going to be three years since the Fed began their aggressive rate hiking cycle and the market and consumer expectations are finally adjusting and settling down, and that right there that factors in just the touch to the housing forecast that I'm going to deliver to you today. And before I get into that, since we are get rich education, do you know what the federal funds rate is like, what it really means? Let me explain this to you in a way where I think you'll not only learn, but I'm going to give you an example so that you can actually remember it. And I'm going to over simplify it, the federal funds rate, that thing that Jerome Powell and his committee set, that is the rate that banks pay other banks to borrow from each other. It's a little over 4% right now. Okay, let's just say it's 4% here's why the federal funds rate is typically lower than mortgage rates. Say that Wells Fargo pays bank of America this 4% federal funds rate to borrow so that Wells Fargo can then turn around and lend the funds to you for a real estate mortgage loan. All right. Well now you can see that Wells Fargo had to pay Bank of America 4% that's why, when you go get your real estate loan from Wells Fargo, you can understand and see why they'd have to charge you, say, 7% in order to make a spread. That is why mortgage rates are higher than the federal funds rate. Wells Fargo made the spread of 3% because they borrowed at four, and they lent it to you at seven, and you yourself you borrowed at seven because your tenant pays your interest and principal for you, and you get the leverage and all of the other benefits. So again, the federal funds rate is the rate that banks pay when they borrow from other banks, and since they need to make a spread arbitrage, this is why mortgage rates are higher. Again, that's oversimplified, but I think that's a way where you can really remember what that is and why that is that way. All right.    Well, with that lesson understood, let's talk about the big national home price forecast for next year. And here's what's interesting. Look at the forecasts that my peers have made. All right, I've already got the forecasts from 16 other housing analytics platforms here, and they have all predicted that home prices will rise next year, all 16 of them, but they've all forecast something different. And everything we're discussing today, by the way, is nominal, meaning, not inflation adjusted. All right. Note that the average of all these platforms, all 16 of them, is a 2.8% gain for next year. All right, if you look at all of them the range, the highest is Goldman, Sachs at 4.4% and the lowest is Moody's Analytics at just 310 of 1%   I'll tell you now that my forecast today, it wouldn't even fit on this chart, it is going to be off the chart. And this is something that might ramp up your intrigue. Maybe you think I would look at this and choose something safe, and since I have the benefit of seeing how 16 others have weighed in that, I'll just pick something in the middle of that. Oh, no, not at all. This is an independent forecast. So since our forecast is off the chart, then that means that what I'm going to tell you today either has to be higher than the highest, which is that 4.4% from Goldman Sachs, or lower than the lowest, which is that 310 of 1% from Moody's. Yes, it is outside of those brackets, busting the bookends today. And as I lead up to it, I will detail the reasons why the calculus that went into this forecast. So before we're done, yes, you will get the exact percent number that I expect existing single family home values to increase by or decrease by next year. It is the fourth straight year that I'm doing this. And now a lot of people make whimsical predictions, you know. But today, you're gonna get something that you rarely, if ever get accountability, because I'm also going to show you the results, you'll see how well my forecasts have actually performed each of the past three years. Sheesh, don't you wish everyone followed up on the prediction that they made now, oh gosh, most housing price crash Predictions Fail Faster than your average New Year's resolution. All right, we need first historic context in order to put this future that we're talking about into perspective. Let's look at how bad other predictions have been this is something that Yahoo Finance recently pointed out, the year by year, reasons that people thought housing prices would crash Since 2012 so we're talking about the past 13 years here, starting in 2012 it was shadow inventory. Remember that that never came true. 2013 higher mortgage rates. 2014 in that year. People thought that housing prices could tumble hard because QE was ending in October of that year. That is quantitative easing, which is dollar printing. I mean, basically QE, that's just the Genteel way of saying inflation. In 2015 they thought a manufacturing recession would make home prices crash. In 2016 home prices were back to their pre global financial crisis high. Well, people thought that seemed shaky. In 2017 I don't know what it was. No one had a good reason. But the word crash just gets attention, so some media tried to scare people with that headline. Anyway, in 2018 it was mortgage rates went from 4% up to 5% seriously like that was the top reason. In 2019 it was that home price growth was cooling off in 2020 of course, it was the COVID 19 pandemic in 2021 it was mortgage forbearance in 2022 it was that mortgage rates hit 7% that was the first time we saw those in a while, even though 7% is still below the long term average of seven and three quarters percent in 2023 it was historically low housing demand. People thought that would bring down real estate prices. In 2024 it was sustained higher mortgage rates and an uptick in inventory. And what's it going to be in 2025 I don't know. Clickbait artists will have some other farcical reason why home prices will crash. Just watch, all right, well, with that, look back every year since 2012 of course, real estate prices definitely don't always go up. In fact, when we look at a longer term history, the national home price appreciation rate every year since World War Two. Like I told you on a previous episode, there were only two periods where home prices fell, that's over a period of 80 to 85 years. There was just 1% attrition in 1990 and then the only appreciable loss period, of course, were those years around the 2008 global financial crisis, where you really probably could consider that an all out crash, prices were down more than 20% nationally, more than 40% 50% in some markets, all right. Well, how did that concerning period compare to now? Well, 2008 is when conditions were largely opposite of what they are now that is back 2008 we had an oversupply of homes, and it was all supported by poorly underwritten mortgages, meaning the borrower really couldn't afford the payment. And also that's when people had low or no equity in homes, so they just walked away, so borrowers had no equity to lose, nor any credit score to protect, and it was oversupplied there about 17 years ago. I mean, that era was so bad and also such an anomaly, that home prices actually fell below the replacement cost, if you can believe that, meaning that you could ostensibly buy existing property for less than the cost that it would take to build a property, then all right. Well, all three of those conditions are opposite. Now today, we have an under supply of homes. Secondly, we have carefully underwritten mortgages, and thirdly, we have record high equity positions, about 300k on average. People are not walking away from that unless things got absolutely dire. All right, with that historical context. So here we are building up to my factors for the forecast, and then the big reveal of the percent figure here, before we're done, to be clear, what I'm providing is the projected sales price of existing single family homes per the National Association of Realtors, stat set. All right, so why existing? And not include the new builds into that? Well, first of all, there are way more existing home sales. Then there are new build sales each year. And see, the thing is, though, that tracking new build that really skews the numbers, because what can happen is, one year, you might have a ton of luxury new build homes. Well then that skews the numbers up too much. Or then there's the more nascent trend of what's happening lately, building smaller homes this past year in order to help with affordability and building smaller that can skew the numbers down. So sticking with existing homes that allows us to keep things more same same. Today, you'll learn about what goes into my forecast and the factors that actually don't matter as much as you would think, like the incoming Trump administration. You'll also hear an important clip from Trump in a few minutes for the second week in a row, I'm bringing you the show from a fairly interesting place, Anchorage, Alaska. This city of 300,000 people, is at sea level. The west side is confined by a coast. The east side is confined by mountains. It's a modern US city. There are high rise buildings and convention centers and freeways and a really convenient International Airport. What's interesting about being in America's northernmost city right now? Anchorage is. That Saturday, just a couple of days ago, that was the winter Equinox for half of the globe, the entire northern hemisphere. And here, the sunrise time is about 10:15am, and sunset about 3:45pm, that right there is just five and a half hours of daylight. That's it, but it feels like more than that. It feels closer to perhaps seven plus hours of daylight, because at high latitudes, the sun barely drops below the horizon, so therefore you get more Twilight on either end of sunrise in Sunset. Well, this is a real estate show, so I hope that's not too much of an astronomy lesson for you here. But anchorage can never get 24 hours of daylight or darkness, because it simply is not far enough north. In fact, when I fly from, say, the center of the 48 states out here. I travel more west than North. The thing for you to remember is that the only places on the globe that can get 24 hours of daylight and darkness are inside the Arctic and Antarctic circles. They're at 63 and 1/3 degrees of latitude or greater, and Anchorage is just 61 I've been skiing here, but suffice to say, with a lot of darkness, it's been a good place for me to study research and put my effort into this forecast that I'm sharing with you today, which you'll hear after the break.    This week's episode is supported by ridge lending group. It's the same place where I get my investment property mortgages and refinancings, you can go ahead and originate your loans at the same place I get mine, that is Ridgelendinggroup.com.  Also freedom family investments, you can make a loan and get a stable return of 7% 8% or Even 10% yet still have some measure of liquidity. Why park your funds at a bank? You can learn about their private money loans by texting FAMILY to 66866, if you want 8% or more on your money while it's on your mind, just text FAMILY to 66866, and see if it's right for you. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, more next you're listening to get rich education.    Oh geez, the national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings, so your bank is getting rich off of you. You've got to earn way more, or else you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk. Your Cash generates up to a 10% return and compounds year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25k you keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back. Their decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And you know how I'd know, because I'm an investor in this myself, earn 10% like me and GRE listeners are text FAMILY to 66866, to learn about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text, FAMILY to 66866.   hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine at Ridge lending group NMLS, 42056, they've provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation, because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start Now while it's on your mind at Ridge lendinggroup.com that's Ridge lendinggroup.com   Tom Wheelwright  24:08   This is Rich Dad Advisor Tom Wheelwright. Listen to Get Rich Education with Keith Weinhold, and Don't Quit Your Daydream.   Keith Weinhold  24:24   welcome back to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, with the factors that are weighing into my home price appreciation determination for next year. Here now all of these factors matter, but I'm generally going to start with less weighty factors and proceed more toward the weighty factors Trump tariffs. Could Trump tariffs increase materials costs, the cost of materials that go into homes? Well, yes, of course, they could. Could it also increase the labor costs that go into those homes, if, say, businesses decide to onshore. Sure in order to avoid paying the tariffs, yes, and you would have to pay a higher wage to Americans. That's obviously inflationary, but applying tariffs is slow, and it takes a long time to trickle through, okay? But here's the thing, even the threat of tariffs can produce inflation, and we already have the threat that's something real. And now see if you're a consumer and you want to buy a new washer, dryer set or a microwave, well, you're more motivated to do that today, not in a year, because this threat of tariffs might mean that that appliances price will spike. You might want to buy your new car now, if you anticipate the terrace could be coming and it's going to affect that well, the apartment building owner feels the same way before she or he buys 48 washer dryers for their apartment building. Home Builders and remodelers they want to get their materials orders in now, in some cases, whether that's for concrete, drywall, lumber, any component that goes into a home where they think that a tariff could jack up the price, you really need to be paying attention to whether you think this is going to happen or not. So Trump likely means more inflation, and that correlates also with sustained higher interest rates of all kinds, including mortgage rates. And there's no certainty there. There is just that correlation. Now, a lot of real estate investors anticipate that a president with a real estate investor background like Trump Has he is going to return 100% bonus depreciation and extend his tax breaks, okay, all of these things, especially that bonus depreciation, can really enhance your tax situation, but that's not part of the home price appreciation forecast for next year. Okay, we're just looking at next year here. How about mortgage rates? How is that going to factor into home prices for next year? Mortgage rates hardly matter. And the newer listener that you are, the more of a surprise that is, rates are about 7% now, a lot of experts think they're going to go to 6% in a year. But who knows? I mean, a year ago, everyone thought rates would be substantially lower today. But here's the thing, it's not just a who knows. It's almost a who cares about what mortgage rates will be when it comes to prices. Because, like I've shared with you before, since 1994 mortgage rates have risen 1% or more seven different times, and home prices went up all seven times.  Long time listeners like you, you already know this, so for the complete backstory on the why, you can listen to earlier episodes, but the short story is that higher rates, you gotta look at what's happening when there are high rates that's a confirmation that the economy is strong, and when the economy is strong and people feel secure in their job, what do they do? They buy a home. So mortgage rates matter, but a person's personal economy matters more when they make a decision to buy a home or not. A sharp fall in rates that correlates with a recession. So higher rates usually lead to higher home prices, something that almost everyone in real estate thinks of oppositely. On weeks with lower rates this year, we did have lower housing inventory, and with higher rates, we had higher inventory. So that did affect that the next factor is more important than tariffs and mortgage rates, and that is Trump and immigration. Okay? Because this affects the supply versus demand component of housing, something supremely important. Well, more immigrants mean more housing demand, pushing up prices and on immigration, who really knows how many of this surge of fresh immigrants are going to be deported? Will it only be the illegals, or will it be others? Or will it be none at all? Or will it be something else, will trump deport everyone? I mean, that is not easy to do, and it's really expensive. Here are Trump's latest public remarks on how he's going to treat recent immigrants to the US. The interviewer is Kristen Welker from NBC, and she's heard shuffling some papers here too. So don't let that throw you off as you listen to Trump.    Speaker 1  29:39   You raised the point that the logistics are complicated. You said yourself, everything's gone. You mean you need 24 times more ICE detention capacity just to deport 1 million people per year, not to mention more agents, more judges, more planes. Is it realistic to deport everyone? First of all, they're costing us a fortune, but we're starting. With the criminals, and we got to do it, and then we're starting with others, and we're going to see how it goes   Keith Weinhold  30:06   well there, before Trump's first day in office for his second term, see he's already saying we'll see how it goes with deporting immigrants. He now realizes how costly that is. If there is mass deportation, housing demand goes down, but we'd also have fewer laborers, which a lot of those immigrants are, to build the new housing that our country needs. So there's somewhat of a canceling out effect there. It could mean higher home prices because it could even mean higher home prices because most fresh immigrants are renters. They aren't occupying homes that they own anyway, and just how many people we're talking about here, the Pew Research Center estimates that 13% of construction workers are undocumented. That disruption to the labor market that can produce higher inflation, because the slowdown in home building means less supply and higher prices. Now let's get to the biggest factor before I provide my track record, and then the big number, and that is more on the housing supply versus demand. So yeah, it's really fundamental economics. That's the core driver of next year's anticipated home price change. All right, let's start with supply. How undersupplied of housing are we still in the US? Well, an update on the Fred active listing count, and this is for single families, condos and townhomes. It's that we are up off the bottom, but we're still a good 40% or so below the equilibrium point where demand meets supply. America grew its available inventory 27% this year, pretty significant, and next year, it might grow another 15 or 20% that's my best guess. All right then, well, let's try to project future supply by what you have to do is look at new housing starts. That means shovels in the ground. That means taking a backhoe and excavating for spread footings, digging that trench that you're going to pour concrete into, starting homes from the ground up. Well, we don't have enough starts either not enough. In fact, we could be digging a deeper hole with the under supply at our current level of building, US housing under supply will grow by over 200,000 homes per year if we continue at this low level of building. And would you consider all housing types, single family homes, apartments, mobile homes, condos, ADUs, everything? Freddie Mac estimates that we are currently under supplied by a whopping 3.7 million housing units. Now, you probably heard figures like that before, but let me put it into perspective. At two persons per home, our shortage is greater than what could house the entire population of Libya. That's what we're talking about here. And some agencies estimate we're even more undersupplied than the 3.7 million homes. Now, of course, I'm making only a national forecast today. There are regional variations in some Texas and Florida sub markets, they have built plenty of new build single family homes now, let me tell you something scary. What if your income dropped by a third, making 1/3 less in the future than you do right now? Like that would be a moment of panic for a lot of people, you and your family, as you hold that thought when it comes to supply, this year had historically low home sales. When I talk about sales, these are not prices. This is different. This is the volume of sales. Next year, there will likely only be a few more sales than this year, and there weren't many this year. Now see for you, as an individual real estate investor and a consumer that goes grocery shopping, you know, you are interested in real estate prices, but the industry, if you work in the industry, like as a builder or as a real estate agent or even a furniture provider, they are more concerned about the number of home sales. This sales volume that I'm talking about, and here's what's going on, normal is about 5 million home sales per year. It was over 6 million during the pandemic, and now we're down at 4 million. So I mean, in a short period of time to go from 6 million down to 4 million, that is a drawdown of transactions by a third. So just imagine if you are a home builder or a real estate agent, or you're in the retail furniture business and your volume is down by a third. I mean, what would happen to you if your income were down by a third? And you're in one of those industries and you don't have a way to pivot, so that is scary stuff for that subset of people. Well, while all of that was happening to sales volume, lower and lower volume. Home prices have just kept ticking up these past few years. All right. Well, that was supply, and there is one last factor to weigh before I reveal the forecast number, and that is demand. There is a long way to go before there is enough housing inventory for the pent up demand in the housing market, pent up demand from these people that can't quite afford a home. Demographics is destiny. You know, it is one of the easiest things to project, because demographics is a known forget immigration here, because I already talked about that just domestically, the US had its own high birth rate years from 1990 to 2010 and most people don't know about this. Many of those years between 1990 and 2010 there were over 4 million births annually, and that peaked in the year 2007 All right, you might be wondering, so what? That's the past? What about the future? Well, in housing prices, that right there is the future, with today's first time homebuyer now being a record 38 years old, like I told you about a few episodes ago. Alright, if you add 38 to the year that they were born, 2007 that home buyer demand won't peak until the year 2045 so that is a big part of where the demand just keeps coming from, and is going to keep coming from this wave of demographic demand that might not slow down much until the 2050s and what could slow prices is if a major recession that included a lot of job losses were eminent, that could slow home price growth. But nobody expects that. you know something, on future demand, What if health and fitness influencer Brian Johnson is right, and Earth now has the first generation not to die. What would that do to real estate prices? Have you ever thought that through that would really expand housing demand, but that wouldn't affect things for a couple decades. All right, well, let's talk track record and understand that it is pretty difficult to predict the future, and I have made all these forecasts at the end of one year, just before the forecast year even starts, just like I'm doing today, and here's how I've done at the end of 2021 for 2022 I forecast 9-10% home price appreciation the year ended, and in 2022 they came in at 10% so I got that one right. For 2023 before that year even began, I forecast 0% just that home prices would stay flat. And by the way, so many people were calling for a housing price decline that year because mortgage rates had risen. But as we know here on the show, when mortgage rates rise, home prices typically do too. And I also said back then was supply so low, I don't really see how home prices could fall. Well, the year ended, and sure enough, they came in at 0% and all of this is published in on record. You can go back and find all this, in fact, for 2024 you can hear the forecast that I made near the end of last year for 2024 and you could do that by going back and listening to Episode 481 this is episode 533 that was 52 weeks ago, and you will hear that my forecast back then for this year's home price appreciation was 4% this year is not quite over, plus housing data lags somewhat, in fact, through October, however, they were 4.1%   we've almost got that November number, not quite, but it's very likely going to end up being 4% this year, just like I had forecast at the end of Last year, but it's still officially to be determined. Before I gave the awaited fresh forecast for next year with what looks to me like really nailing the forecast spot on three years in a row now you might be wondering something, how did I know? How did I have the foresight to know that and nail those. Forecasts. You know, at this point, I have to concede that there's probably a little luck that has come into play, but this is what I do. I study research and even participate in the National residential housing market. What you're getting is my best estimate. It's not any sort of promise or guarantee. I mean, like all other 8.1 billion human beings on earth, I don't have a crystal ball, and a streak like this has gone on for three years, but it cannot go on forever. So this is what I can best surmise. So really, for 2025 The short story is that I expect more buyers than homes, which creates bids and buoyant prices. I also expect continued inflationary pressure. Those are the two chief factors that went into this. We don't ever revise our forecast mid year. This is it. For 2025 I expect home prices to increase by 5%. Yes, there it is 5% projected appreciation for next year. And to be clear, that is the NARS national median existing single family home price, the same stat set that I have cited all four years again, it is nominal, meaning, not inflation adjusted, so at Christmas or New Year's or your next dinner party, when You see your slack jawed brother in law that thinks the housing market is always going to crash, give the dude a hug and a turkey leg and tell him that I expect plus 5% and pass me the wishbone for good luck on our fourth consecutive housing price appreciation forecast, I really hope that this helps with planning your own portfolio moves, whether that's you owning more income property next year or doing a refinancing, or how you think about your own primary residence. And do you like the forecast that I've done here near the end of each year ever since 2021 if you do let us know, write us or leave us voicemail at get rich education.com/contact let me know you can always get a hold of us there year round with any type of feedback or questions.    Hey, if you appreciate this show here, do you think that you could help me out in one small way? Call it my Christmas gift request. There's only one item on my Christmas list, and it should only take a couple minutes of your time and none of your money. Leave a podcast rating and review for the get rich education podcast on Apple podcasts or Spotify, or wherever you listen, the rating is the five star thing. The review is a few short sentences about why you like the show. I would really appreciate the gift from you, and I will read your review myself too. If you don't know how to do it right inside those listener apps, just open up a browser tab and search how to leave an apple podcast review, or Spotify podcast review, or whatever platform you prefer to listen on it would feel like a little Christmas gift to me after all these years, I'd love your feedback given that way. Tell me what you think, and thanks from me and the entire team here at GRE Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays. Until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your day dream.   Speaker 2  43:46   nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively.   Keith Weinhold  44:06   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com    

Get Rich Education
532: Inflation is Your Wealth-Building Friend (Really)

Get Rich Education

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 16, 2024 43:48


Are you a real estate investor looking to maximize your returns and minimize hassles with your rental properties? This is a must-listen! You'll discover proven strategies for quickly filling vacant units and attracting high-quality, long-term tenants.  Hear Keith share insider tips on leveraging rent increases to boost your cash flow and property values.  Plus, you'll learn about an innovative financial tool - a Home Equity Investment - that can unlock a lump sum of cash from your properties without any monthly payments.  Tune in to get the edge on managing your rentals like a true pro and building lasting wealth through real estate.  This episode is packed with actionable insights you can apply to take your investing business to the next level. Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”. Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/532 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching:GREmarketplace.com/Coach Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai    Keith Weinhold  0:01   Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, talking about the dynamic between rents and prices, how to keep your vacancy rate low and the relationship between landlords and tenants. Learn about how a newer vehicle can give you a big lump of cash from your property without you having to make any payments, then inflation is your wealth building, Friend, yeah? really today on get rich education.    Mid south home buyers, I mean, they're total pros, with over two decades as the nation's highest rated turnkey provider, their empathetic property managers use your ROI as their North Star. So it's no wonder that smart investors just keep lining up to get their completely renovated income properties like it's the newest iPhone. They're headquartered in Memphis and have globally attractive cash flows and A plus rating with a better business bureau, and now over 5000 houses renovated. There's zero markup on maintenance. Let that sink in, and they average a 98.9% occupancy rate, while their average renter stays more than three and a half years. Every home they offer has brand new components, a bumper to bumper, one year warranty, new 30 year roofs. And wait for it, a high quality renter. Remember that part and in an astounding price range, 100 to 180k I've personally toured their office and their properties in person in Memphis, get to know Mid South. Enjoy cash flow from day one. Start yourself right now at mid southhomebuyers.com that's mid south homebuyers.com    when you want the best real estate and finance info, the modern Internet experience limits your free articles access, and it's replete with paywalls and you get pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers, ugh. At no other time in history has it been more vital to place nice, clean, free content in your hands that actually adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters. And I write ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it is to the point to get it. It couldn't be more simple. Just type up a text message with the letters G, R, E in the body and send it to the phone number, 66866, and when you start the free newsletter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate course, completely free. Subscribe to my Don't quit your Daydream newsletter, and your mind will be wired for wealth. Text GRE to 66866, text GRE to 66866,   Corey Coates  3:02   you're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  3:18   Welcome to GRE from Villa Lenovo, Pennsylvania to Villanueva, Columbia, and across 488 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold in your listening to get rich education. I'm really grateful to have you as always. When you invest, you are buying a day that you don't have to work. That's what we're helping you do here every single week own real estate, and it's going to allow you to buy back big chunks of time for yourself later. And that's a big deal because your very life is made up of chapters of time. It's actually really cool when you own investment properties in a few different places, then you actually own part of, say, Indiana and Tennessee and Georgia. You own parts of those states. That's what we help you do here. And that sounds cool. Sounding cool, though, is not enough. There need to be good fundamental reasons behind the real estate portfolio that you are building. It's kind of interesting. With rental property investing, you're kind of doing the little things in order to hold together the big profitable picture, because there are all these forces that are simultaneously creating wealth for you when you've got income property with a loan. So yeah, you're just sort of trying to hold it together. You say, don't get your vacant property rented as soon as you want. So you might drop the rent 50 bucks and add a nice new kitchen faucet and ta da, just like that. It's rented, and all while you're doing those little things. Things to hold it together. Whether your property is vacant or rented, you are benefiting from leverage and inflation. Profiting on your loan. You're benefiting from some big forces either way. Well, on today's show, first, we're going to be talking about the little things like the one on one relationship between you and your tenant, and then later on the show today, that's when we'll grow and talk about a more macro force, like new ways for you to think about how you're benefiting from inflation when we talk about rents prices and the relationship between a real estate investor like you and your tenant. Recently, on the show here, I talked about how the 4.6% growth in wages like we do have today, that is a harbinger of you getting future rent growth. And this can get rent growth to catch up with the growth that we've had in property prices. And note that this is what happens. You need to remember that the bid format of buying property that allows for more rapid price escalation than the first come first serve at a set price format that you have when you're trying to rent out your property. All right, when you put up a property for sale, or you're the person that's buying one, that's usually not in a first come first serve process that's more of a competitive bid process. And see that is exactly why, in a hot market, real estate prices can run up fast. But because, say, you're renting out a property, and you're doing that, you're usually not accepting offers from prospective tenants and then taking the tenant that has the highest bid. Well, instead with rents, you're just taking the qualified first tenant that agrees to your fixed rent price of, say, $2,000 Okay, your prospective tenant isn't saying, Oh, I really like your rental, single family home, so I'll pay you $2,200 for instead of the 2000 that you're asking. And see that right there is why, in a hot market, property prices run up faster than rents do. But see when prices run up faster than rents, like they did, starting about four years ago, what happens is that begins to make rents, oh, they look like a relative bargain to people that are seeking housing. So that is the time that pivot point when rents catch up with prices, which is the cycle that I hope we are getting into next. Now. Right now, we have to be at a time of year where tenants tend to stay put. There isn't as much turnover as you approach the holidays, but a few months from now, turnover tends to pick up in the springtime. And before we talk about the economics of what you do when you have a vacant unit, understand that despite the national housing shortage, the rental vacancy rate really is not that low nationwide. Do you have any idea what the historically average rental vacancy rate is? You have any guess there? That's about 7% 7.3% to be exact. That's why, when you run your cash flow analysis for a property using one month per year is usually pretty safe, that's about 8% Well, all right, we've established that the long term national rate of vacancy is 7.3% the current vacancy rate is 6.9% and yes, that number is just what it sounds like. It's simply the percentage of rental inventory that's available for rent, and it maxed out at 11% back in 2009 that's when housing was badly overbuilt, and now with the housing shortage, you'll see that today's vacancy rate is only a little below normal, 7.3 versus 6.9 maybe you're wondering, well, why isn't it even lower, like five or 6% Well, one big reason why vacancy rates are just a little lower than the long run average is all of the apartment over building like I discussed with you two weeks on the show and I told you about my walk on rainy street in Austin, Texas last month, where they're building gobs of 500 foot tall apartment towers that aren't going to be occupied for a while, and I called that area America's apartment oversupply ground zero. But as you know, there are so many ways to parse and dissect real estate markets. The vacancy rate for apartment buildings today is 7.8% nationally, but for single family rental homes, it's only 5.4% that's because their supply is more scarce. But since there aren't many new apartment projects just getting started now, they're just completing when they started about two years ago, I would expect the apartment vacancy rate to come down over the next couple of years. And then, of course, each local area is going to have its own vacancy rate too. I mean, there are so many ways to parse, to bifurcate real estate, and all those figures I gave you are per the US Census. Well, I've explained to you before that when you have a vacant unit, that is the time for you to really push it test the market. Start your asking rent up rather high in order to see what you can get for it. And this is what's known in economics, in the free market as price discovery. This is your time for price discovery, but you usually only want to keep the rent way high for just a few days, otherwise you might needlessly increase your vacancy period. But here's the thing, if your unit is vacant after a number of showings, is it better for you to drop the rent, or instead, is it better for you to make some upgrades to the unit and keep that higher asking rent? Well, like seemingly everything in real estate investing, the short answer for you is, it depends right the upside of you dropping the rent is that it's a lot quicker and easier to do than making an upgrade to the unit. I mean, just snap your fingers and it's done. Dropping the rent might only take a few seconds or minutes, but see when you keep the higher asking rent and you make upgrades, you do more than just increase your rent income. You get a better quality tenant, first of all, and secondly, if you get, say, 5% more rent depending on your leverage position, you might get 10% more cash flow, that money that you feel in your pocket every month. A lot of landlords don't even consider those two attributes right there. See, when you get 5% more rent for a unit your tenant, of course, they only have to pay 5% more, yet you yourself as the property provider, you're getting perhaps 8% or 10% or 12% more money in your pocket because of the leverage. And right there, I essentially just described the third crown of get rich. Education's inflation triple crown for you. That third crown is called Cash Flow enhancement. And really there's another, I guess, a third here wealth building attribute that you've accomplished through achieving a higher rent, and that is, if it happens to be a five plus unit apartment building, you also actually just increase the value of the entire property, since they are valued on the net operating income in the cap rate. So we're talking about vacancy, rent and real estate economics here with three distinct elements that I just described about how upgrading and achieving a higher rent gives you a lot of distinct advantages. The downside of it being that it takes more time. And there's another one. What are we up to here? A fourth upside to upgrading and achieving more asking rent, as opposed to doing the minimum for lower rent. And that is, well, it's your pride of ownership. I mean, you're providing good housing now your whole mission is not about altruism alone, but you'll feel like you're on a more fulfilling mission when you are like I often say, providing housing that's clean, safe, still affordable and functional. There's a fifth reason in that is that higher rents help you deal with higher operating expenses. But maybe it's beyond just the way in which you're thinking. And you know, a lot of people really don't understand this or put this together. In fact, I was talking with a real estate investor last month at the New Orleans investment conference. He was talking about rising insurance expenses on his properties, saying that he had one property that just had a insurance premium increase of 10% and he sounded a little disappointed, saying that, well, I can't get 10% more rent, but I've got this 10% higher insurance premium. So you know, he was thinking that he was losing? No, he's not necessarily losing, because in absolute dollar terms, you're charging your tenant multiples more in rent than what you're being charged in insurance. Say that you're charging 2000 bucks in rent on a unit. All right? Well, on a monthly basis, just say that your insurance payment works out to 200 bucks on that unit. All right. Well, with just 5% more rent, that's $2,100 a $100 increase, but if your insurance goes up 10% from 200 to 220 bucks, that's just a $20 increase. So right there in that example, your rent increase is half of your insurance rate increase percentage wise, but in dollar terms, your rent just went up five times as fast as your insurance did, and you are even more cash flow positive than you were previously. So the point is in your monthly profit and loss statement, your cash flow statement, on your property, even your pro forma, keep in mind that your rent amount, that is the biggest monthly number, and being attentive to it can cure so many ills. And when you realize this, this plethora of positives, if you will, it can make a decision to, yeah, do something like replace that old Berber carpet with new vinyl plank flooring, and make that look more attractive to you, and it's gonna look more attractive to your tenant, and you're probably gonna get a higher quality tenant than what you would have placed otherwise. And when you upgrade a unit, not only is your property worth more, but you usually don't pay a higher insurance premium as a result of making that upgrade at all, despite your higher valuation. In fact, sometimes lower rents are subsidized by deferred maintenance, like a leaky faucet or a big crack in a ceiling, all right, now all of these things are sort of hard economic facts when it comes to the relationship between landlord and tenant. Let me then tell you about a, I guess, softer sensibility. Okay, let's get touchy feely for a minute, and that is the words that we use. In fact, those very landlord and tenant words themselves. Back in 2021 there is a first of its kind, legislation that was proposed in Ohio to change references in their state law from the word landlord to housing provider and from the word tenant to resident. Now I think that the word landlord is a rather strange word. I mean, it's kind of weird that we're still using that term today. In fact, in the small town that I grew up in in Appalachia, it was not an affluent area at all, not even close. It was lower middle class. But even as a kid, I knew that my parents owned their home and that all of my friends' parents owned their homes too. It wasn't until I was about age 13 when the Petroski family moved into town, cowdersport, Pennsylvania. They were nice kids. I befriended them, and they soon started using the term landlord. I might have been about 13 until I had even heard the word landlord, and I still remember then that it struck me as a strange sounding term. Now it was all simple, small, single family homes where I grew up, like these 80 year old Victorian homes. No one tried to divide their yard with fences. People didn't lock their doors. It was great. And anyway, the petroskis lived in a single family home that the landlord, Mr. Hosley, had divided up into three separate, walled off units. That's before the term house hacking even existed. But in fact, landlord, it is a futile and perhaps outdated term, and I'd have to agree that, instead of landlord, the term housing provider, you know what better describes you and I's role and the relationship to our tenants or residents. I mean the word landlord that almost sounds like a person is totalitarian or dictatorial, when in fact, most landlords are people like you, smaller and family owned, not land barons. I mean, HUD will tell you that America has 10 to 11 million individual investor landlords, and they manage an average of just two units each. Okay? So hardly dictatorial, not some tyrant that's going around trying to evict everyone. Not despotic. Let me practice a little with you today, is, I'll try to use the term housing provider instead of landlord, as much as I can here see sometimes what happens in society is that the frustration of poverty gets loaded onto housing providers, and that sets up a system of enforcement that assumes that they have an interest in crushing the people that pay them to keep their property businesses running. And the reason that, say, a food provider like a grocer or an entertainment provider like a basketball team owner, you know, they just don't seem to be as unpopular as a housing provider. And one reason for that is because housing is expensive and it's also non discretionary, meaning that everyone has to have housing. So you might consider using the term housing provider more often than landlord, especially around your tenant, if your tenant thinks of you as a housing provider that has to pay. A mortgage and operating expenses every month, rather than a landlord that turns every dollar of rent income into pure profit, which is never true. Well, if they understand that, you're going to be doing better from a tenant relations standpoint, and that's also completely truthful as well. As far as that Ohio State law and changing the word tenant to resident. Yeah, over the years, I know that a lot of people favor that term, including a lot of our turnkey providers at GRE marketplace. I've rode around in cars with them, and they're talking about their market, and they prefer the term resident to tenant. Now, tenant is a feudal term as well. It refers to someone who occupies land from a lord. The more direct term from feudal times is the word vassal. You might remember that from high school, V, A, S, S, a, l, that means a holder of a land that pays allegiance to a lord. Somehow, to me, the word tenant, it just doesn't feel as futile or like it's almost part of a system of oppression, like the word landlord feels. Landlord feels like some king brooding over his serfs. In fact, the word tenant is actually helpful, because if you tell me that a person is a resident, I don't know whether they own or they rent, but if you tell me they're a tenant, I know that they're renting. So tenant helps, because it's more descriptive and tenant does not sound to me like someone is being oppressed, either. But in any case, consider using housing provider rather than landlord. Here in the soft skills department, it can be hard to remember to do that though you're listening to get rich education podcast episode 532 I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, education is in our name, and I've got more learning for you.    Let's discuss something new and learn about what H E i's are that stands for home equity investment, and see if one of them can help you now, HEI's. They're a pretty new way where you can access a chunk of your home's equity without you having to make any ongoing payments. I mean, does that sound amazing, or what? Okay, it does sound amazing. You get a chunk of money out of your property now without making any payments, but there are some downsides to heis, as you might have guessed, all right. Well, first, let's talk about the way that it works. Okay with an hei. What happens is that a portion of your home's equity is given to you in cash, especially given to you by an investment group. Hey, windfall moment sounds amazing, and it gets even better, because you can use the funds however you like. I mean, what could you do with an extra few 10s of 1000s of dollars or hundreds of 1000s of dollars in cash? Further, unlike some of the better known vehicles, like home equity lines of credit and home equity loans, there are truly no payments for you to make with these heis, again, home equity investment, that's what we're talking about here. And better yet, you can access your funds in as little as a few weeks. And, yes, I mean, this sounds amazing, but you have got to be wondering, what is the catch with HEI's, and there are some what is in it for the investor? Is this investment group? Well, when you're ready to settle the investment years down the road, they are going to be paid out their agreed upon share as the percentage of the sale price or the appraised value. All right. So as you balance that and think that through who is an HEI for, then it's good for a borrower like you, in case you don't have great credit, or if you have a high debt to income ratio, is especially great if you are house rich and cash poor. And the reason that I'm talking about heis now is that more people find themselves in that very situation today, house rich and cash poor, and that's because Americans are sitting on all time, record equity levels of more or less 300k today. All right, that is the house rich part and more Americans are cash poor today. That's due to higher inflation. All right. Well, now that you know the basics of what a home equity investment is and what the upsides are, what about the downsides? More downsides of feeling this near term windfall without you having to make any payments? Well, your mortgage company might block you from taking on an HEI because see what you're doing is you're taking on another lien holder. Understand that with. An Hei, you've now got more of a lien than you do a loan, and much like a reverse mortgage, heis can also have high fees, and additionally, down the road, that investor might take a big chunk of the home's appreciation, that stuff should all be laid out in your terms up front. So that's something you ought to be able to see coming. All right. Well, now we're a real estate investing show here, so you're probably wondering, okay, great, and you've been hearing me use the word home, but can you get it on your non owner occupied property? Yes, at times you can get an HEI on rental property, but the terms are probably going to be less advantageous, then they will be on your primary residence. Now you might see he is referred to as a product of financial innovation, which is sort of synonymous with another term, financial engineering. And you know, whenever you see those terms, you typically want to exercise caution. Now that alone doesn't mean that an HEI is wrong for you. And of course, with any investment type, although it's usually not your main decision driver, you're going to want to learn about the tax consequences as well. And you might note that home equity investments are also known as a Home Equity sharing agreement, and although that's a longer term, it is more descriptive, and it makes sense because you and an investor partner are essentially sharing in your home's equity together. Now, as a GRE follower, you're able to understand what an investment like this would mean to you and your financial future. Since the rate of return from home equity is always yes, always zero, with an Hei, now you can separate out some equity, and now you'll have the potential for dollars that can earn a return somewhere, and you're going to enjoy better liquidity as well. But Caveat emptor, buyer beware with heis.    The GRE studio has been mobilized a lot lately, as I am here in Anchorage, Alaska today. And what am I doing here? Well, besides studying the housing market, not any local one, but the national housing market. I have also been skiing this week. Hey, when it comes to subscribing to our newsletter, which I do write myself, you might not have realized something. I don't overwhelm your inbox. When you start subscribing, you'll get a welcome set of emails that send every other day for about 10 days, but that's just in the beginning. After that, my newsletter is only sent about weekly whenever there's something critical in the real estate investing world that you really need to know about. It's also brief. It's important to keep it short because your time is valuable. And have you ever noticed that even the word abbreviation is too long? Our don't with your Daydream newsletter is always less than a five minute read. It's usually less than a three minute read to get the letter just text GRE to 66866, right now, see even opting in to get my crucial letter is brief. Now you can text GRE to 66866, more. Next. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get rich education.    Oh, geez, the national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings, so your bank is getting rich off of you. You've got to earn way more, or else you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk, your cash generates up to a 10% return and compounds year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25k you keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back. Their decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And you know how I'd know, because I'm an investor in this myself, earn 10% like me and giari listeners are. Text FAMILY to 66866, to learn about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text FAMILY to 66866    Hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine at Ridge lending group NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualified. And chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start now while it's on your mind at Ridge lendinggroup.com that's Ridge lendinggroup.com.   Tarek El Moussa  30:17   What's up? Everyone? This is hgtvs Tarek El Moussa. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.   Keith Weinhold  30:34   Welcome back to get rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, it's been said that in your life, what you're not changing. You're choosing loads of investors in the 401K or conventional investment plans. They aren't changing the fact that they're only getting their money to work for them. So they're choosing to deny ethically, getting other people's money to work for them, and that's why they have no option other than to work full time until they're old. Well, when you're that savvy borrower now, you're benefiting from both the asset leverage and the inflation profiting, as we know and the way to keep both your leverage high and the inflation profiting on your debt high is to intermittently change the fulcrum on your lever so that you don't have too much equity accumulating in your portfolio. And you also want to be investing in an inflationary environment be a debt DECA millionaire. Remember that term that I introduced to you here a few years ago, if you had ten million in debt at 3% inflation, you're profiting 300k per year just from that alone. Yes, the paradoxically glamorous life of having 10 million in debt, but it's all tied to income properties, so that your tenants make the pay down for you, and inflation pays it down even faster that debt DECA millionaire, he's obviously got to be a pretty creditworthy person in order to get ten million in debt in the first place. Yep, building lasting wealth is not conventional at all. And for the debtor, inflation is therefore your wealth building, friend. It's why, when you see your favorite can of La Columba cold brew coffee, which is a favorite of mine, gosh, it's nice and frothy. If you know, you know, in fact, I'm gonna crack this La Colombe triple draft latte to enjoy after the sh ow there. Did you hear that? No, I don't have any sponsorship with them, but when you see that cold brew price go from $4 to $5 well, that effect makes most people poorer. Some people think that effect makes everyone poor, but it's not making you and I poorer. It's enriching us. When you see consumer price inflation like that, there's a good chance that asset price inflation is occurring as well, and that's why seeing higher prices at grocery stores is probably a subtle signal that you are better off, not worse off. You're better off because you know how to arrange your financial life for inflation rather than being impoverished by it. Congratulations. Let's drink to that with a La Colombe coffee. What you're doing is you are swimming with the river flow, and almost everyone you know is struggling because they chose to swim against the inflationary river flow. See the way that almost everyone that you know goes about earning their income is that they only earn their income once, and they earn it at their job. In an inflationary world, you effectively have to earn your Fiat dollar twice, once when you work for it, and once again, when you invest to beat inflation, otherwise that dollar is just going to evaporate. And that seems so unfair. I mean, why should a surgeon or an athlete, engineer, programmer, accountant, why should those people that are successful in their field and serve society. Why should they have to develop expertise in a second field? Why do they have to do this just to maintain the wealth that they've already built, that they produced out on the free market? Why can't you have a store of value for the future? Inflation is the answer. So they need to develop expertise in a second field, and that's why listening to content just like this is therefore not optional, but it's actually mandatory in this cycle, CPI inflation peaked at 9.1% two and a half years ago, and despite that, has come down quite a bit. It's. A little elevated. It's still not down to the Fed's transparently stated 2% target, and by the way, there is another Fed meeting in two days. If the Fed cuts rates more, bond yields could go higher, which means mortgage rates tend to go higher. Inflation is powerful. A lot of people will tell you that it is the main reason why Jamie Carter wasn't re elected president in 1980 and today they'll tell you why. It's the main reason that it brought down the Biden Harris administration. But see, here's the thing, if you're able to obtain loans in the United States and some other developed countries, understand that you're in a sweet spot, and that sweet spot is a level of inflation that's actually low to moderate by world standards, and not hyper inflationary. All right. Now I know what you might be thinking. You're thinking like, oh, well, hyperinflation would be tremendous for a leveraged real estate investor. Now, why, though, would I say that we don't want hyperinflation? Well, there are countries with a history of hyperinflation, like Turkey, Argentina, Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Iran, they have a history of massive currency devaluation. Let's see what happens then is that financing becomes almost non existent in those places. When that happens, I mean history over hunches. History shows us that in places like that, forget about getting home mortgages, investor loans, a credit card, consumer debt, small business loans, unless maybe a usurious interest rates. If the US had a history of hyperinflation or even sustained bouts of really high inflation, then you know what cooperation between borrowers and lenders becomes nearly impossible. Even those governments of those countries, they have trouble borrowing money, except maybe at maturities of a few months. And you know, I always like to make a borrowing lending example with you and your friend. Okay, you don't want to loan your friend $1,000 for a year in hyperinflation, because if the inflation rate were 1,000% then, after a year, the $1,000 that your friend would pay you back, well, that's only $100 worth of purchasing power. Now, all right, that's why, if the US had one bout of hyperinflation, you know, maybe that would be good, because it would seriously wipe out all of your debts one time. If there became a history of that, though, then you might not get access to loans at all. I mean, who would be crazy enough to finance your growing real estate portfolio in hyperinflation? So the fact that globally, the US has low to moderate inflation levels. I mean, that can be a good thing, that inflation is most of the time, a more surreptitious force. It largely went without notice until the pandemic made it flare up and made that LA Columbia cold brew coffee go up, and made property prices and rents go up all while you're fixed. Mortgage payments stayed the same, totally sheltered from the inflation. All right. Well, if my solution to beat inflation by taking on debt and thinking about it that way, if that's not iconoclastic enough, I've got a different strategy for beating inflation, and I think that I did quickly mention this here about a year ago when Doug Casey was our guest on the show.    But yes, I do have another strategy for beating inflation, and it is controversial. It is almost blasphemy to say this out loud on any finance related show this inflation beating strategy, it's guaranteed to improve your quality of life, okay, no speculation here. A guarantee of improving your quality of life is so simple, anyone can easily do it. In fact, you even have companies competing with other companies to get you to do this, and the answer is to spend your money. Yes, I said it out loud. It guarantees that you'll improve your life. It's simple to do. Various counterparties are competing all over the place with each other. They're falling all over each other every single day to try to get you to do this well, as long as you've invested well first and you have ample liquidity by having a healthy relationship with spending there if that crew. Is to the Spanish Riviera in Majorca, is going to cost you $10,000 this year, but it'll be $11,000 next year. Then spend the money today and beat inflation. Yes, I said it. Spend some of your money if you've been listening to this show and following the guidance here, yes, you can afford to do it. I mean, what is money for anyway? And sadly, some like conventional finance professionals, they are reluctant to tell you to spend your money because they're compensated by the percent of your assets that they hold under management. Inflation makes borrowing and spending, then two irresponsible sounding things, borrowing and spending make complete sense when you do it right, like income properties tied to fixed rate loans.    Hey, why? I've got some cool announcements to share with you now and in future months here on the show, I've got a big collaboration coming up with long time friend of GRE here, Robert Helms of the real estate guys and I together. You'll learn more about that in the future. But first coming up this Saturday, the 21st at 3pm Eastern, over on YouTube, I am going to reveal GRE 's national home price appreciation forecast. So yes, to the nearest percent, I'll tell you exactly how much home price appreciation that you will get, an exact number, how much to expect in the US next year. Or, Hey, maybe I think that home prices will make a rare fall next year, what you're going to get that number, if that's what I forecast, you can go to our get rich education YouTube channel anytime here and make sure that you set a notification so that you are informed again. That's Saturday the 21st at 3pm eastern over on our get rich education YouTube channel, I expect that that information is going to benefit you.    Hey, if you appreciate the show here, do you think that you could help me out in just one small way? Call it my Christmas gift request. There's just one item on my Christmas list with you, and it should only take a couple minutes of your time leave a podcast rating and review for the show on Apple podcasts or Spotify. The rating is the five star thing. The review is a few sentences about what you get out of the show here. I would really appreciate the, I suppose, gift from you, and I will read your review myself too, if you don't know how to do it right inside those listener apps. Just open up a browser tab and search how to leave an apple podcast review or Spotify podcast review, or whatever platform you prefer to listen on. Yeah, it would feel like a little Christmas gift to me after all these months and years of listening, go ahead and provide me with some feedback. Tell me what you think, and thanks so much. Until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.   Dolf Deroos  43:10   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively.   Keith Weinhold  43:38   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, get rich, education.com  

Get Rich Education
531: How to Replace Your Job with Rent Income in Just 3 Years

Get Rich Education

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 9, 2024 46:40


From railroad conductor to becoming a successful real estate investor and replacing his day job in just 3 years. On today's episode, Keith chats with one of our very own GRE listeners about what he did to build his portfolio to quit his steady union job.  Hear about the importance of having a clear "why" for investing and setting specific goals. We discuss the concept of inflation profiting on debt and how it contributes to wealth building Leveraging cash-out refinances and 1031 exchanges as a strategy to scale up and diversify.  Resources: Check out Grant Francke's book “The Unlikely Investor” here. Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/531  For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com  GRE Free Investment Coaching:GREmarketplace.com/Coach  Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com  Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad  Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com  Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866  Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation  Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai    Keith Weinhold  0:01   welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, it's a highly relatable show today because you're going to meet a fellow GRE listener and real estate investor like you that use the principles of this show to build wealth, and he reached real estate financial freedom even faster than I did today on get rich education.   Mid south home buyers, I mean, they're total pros, with over two decades as the nation's highest rated turnkey provider, their empathetic property managers use your ROI as their North Star. So it's no wonder that smart investors just keep lining up to get their completely renovated income properties like it's the newest iPhone. They're headquartered in Memphis and have globally attractive cash flows, an A plus rating with a better business bureau and now over 5000 houses renovated. There's zero markup on maintenance. Let that sink in, and they average a 98.9% occupancy rate, while their average renter stays more than three and a half years. Every home they offer has brand new components, a bumper to bumper, one year warranty, new 30 year roofs, and wait for it, a high quality renter. Remember that part and in an astounding price range, 100 to 180k I've personally toured their office and their properties in person in Memphis, get to know Mid South. Enjoy cash flow from day one, start yourself right now at mid south homebuyers.com that's mid south homebuyers.com   Keith Weinhold when you want the best real estate and finance info, the modern Internet experience limits your free articles access, and it's a replete with paywalls, and you get pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers, ugh. And no other time in history has it been more vital to place nice, clean, free content in your hands that actually adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it is to the point to get it. It couldn't be more simple. Just type up a text message with the letters G, R, E in the body and send it to the phone number, 66866, and when you start the free newsletter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate course, completely free. Subscribe to my Don't quit your Daydream newsletter, and your mind will be wired for wealth. Text GRE to 66866, text GRE to 66866.   Corey Coates  2:57   you're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  3:13   Welcome to GRE from Washington Crossing Pennsylvania to cross City Florida and across one area, nations worldwide, you're listening to one of America's longest running and most listened to real estate shows. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you're listening to get rich education here for you every single Monday, every week, without fail. This is the voice of real estate investing Since 2014 you know, being successful in real estate such that you can quit your job when you're young enough to enjoy it is counter cultural, even kind of Bohemian. I mean, just imagine telling yourself this or saying this to somebody else. First, I had a lot of debt, then my situation got even better, because we had a surge of high inflation, and it's all making me rich. To that, most conventional financial wisdom would reply like, Dude, are you nuts? Maybe. But I'll tell you what, I'm not normal. I wouldn't want to be normal. That's a real pejorative, right there. Normalcy is, like, slanderous. Yep, you gotta get iconoclastic. Well, it's all grounded in fundamentals. Yep, inflation dilutes your debt for you, and it's almost perfectly predictable that that's gonna happen too by following principles just like that aligned with GRE 's inflation triple crown, and that real estate pays five ways. The guest that you'll meet today, yeah, he did reach financial freedom faster than I did. You're gonna hear about how he did it. It's like I've said on the show here before. I am divulging to you the information that I wish I had when I started out, because if I had this when I began, I would have reached financial freedom sooner. You know, after I bought my first ever income property, that fourplex, I didn't buy my next investment property for almost five years. Okay, it was not a fast timeline for me, but after about four years from buying that seminal first property, I started analyzing what it was doing for me, and I well, not only wanted to buy more, but I would soon learn that really the lessons I extracted from that property, I ended up articulating that in ways that no one else that I know of has. Today's listener guest is from a Midwestern MSA of 343,000 people that we haven't discussed on the show before, at least in any detail. And that's also the market that he invests in. Let's meet him.   Keith Weinhold  6:05   From time to time, we like to have a GRE listener on the show to learn about how the show has changed their life, and also discover you know just what you're out there doing as a real estate investor. And this is because other listeners can find these episodes so relatable. Today's listener guest is from Nebraska, and he listened to GRE in the commute to and from his job for years back when he still had one, because he's a success story. Since he has replaced his day job income with rental properties in just three years, which is a remarkably fast timeline, and now he's got more time freedom for his passions or for his family and kids. So we're gonna learn about how he did that. Hey, welcome to the show. GRE listener GrantFrancke, Thanks, Keith. Honored to be here. Frankie is spelled F, R, a, n, C, K, E, and Grant, this is great that you've been on this fast timeline to produce financial freedom. But before we talk about that, let's back up. Tell us about your beginning like your family situation in your now, I guess former job.   Grant Francke  7:09   great question. So I started it out as a conductor for BNSF Railways. So I was a trained conductor. I started out there pretty much right out of high school. It's a great job if you don't have any family or kids because you're gone all the time you work crazy hours. Yeah. So it was great before I was married, but then I got married, I was like, I don't really love this as much. And then once we had our two kids, I was like, I've got to find something else that can get me that time, freedom to spend more time with them. And stumbled on real estate and started going that route.   Keith Weinhold  7:40   Some people don't have that mindset. They justify working overtime because, well, I'm away from my kids, but I'm working for them, but with financial freedom, you really can have both a time for your children when you want it and the income that you desire a railroad conductor. So I believe that's different from a railroad engineer, right? The railroad engineer is the person that kind of drives the train and changes the speed in the conductor. They're the one that's sort of making sure that the staff and the cargo and the passengers are taken care of. Is that what a railroad conductor does?   Grant Francke  8:12   Yep. So we only did cargo freight, so I was in charge of, like, how fast we could go, what was all in the train, talking to the dispatcher and making sure we're going the right directions and and taking the right sightings, and then if anything broke down on the train, we'd have to go back and take care of it. But yes, the engineer is the one who he physically drives a train, and we're kind of like the co pilot.   Keith Weinhold  8:32   You talked about how you were away, and it takes an awful lot of hours. You based there in Nebraska, geographically, what kind of routes Did you run?   Grant Francke  8:41    It's 300 miles from Lincoln. So I was based out of Lincoln Nebraska. So it's about 300 miles, yeah, so we did to Kansas City, cook Nebraska, some places out in Iowa, up north, to Sioux City. And those trips ranged from 36 to 48 hours, round trip for us to be gone and back.   Keith Weinhold  8:58   making the economy run there, but this was, you know, rather time consuming, obviously pretty disruptive to one schedule there when you're working long shifts or away for these long periods of time. So okay, it sounds like you got the idea that you wanted something where you could control your time better. There are so many ways to produce income in an informal sense, there's entrepreneurship, which might be something like you could have launched your own app or started a donut shop. Then there's something more passive when it comes to investing. I mean, most people that are working at a job, they even think, Oh, hey, I have my investing bucket covered because I invest through my employer in 401k and that's good enough. But somehow you must have had this notion in you that this wasn't good enough. So tell us about how and why real estate.   Grant Francke  9:42   I've always been like, somewhat handy. So I was gonna go and just be a GC or a handyman. I was Googling around, and I found a post that said that the best customers for handymen are landlords, because they keep you busy and they always got work. I was like, Oh, that's great idea. So I stumbled upon a podcast. Where it was a handyman who became a landlord, he recommended a book on there called Rich Dad, Poor Dad. So I went and got that book, and then my life was changed after that.   Keith Weinhold  10:11   It's amazing how that little purple book influences so many of us. Okay, so that sort of opened you up to the concept of real estate investing and Rich Dad content is terrific. A lot of times, though, it doesn't really get down into the nuts and bolts too much. So just in your educational journey, where did you progress from the rich dad school of thought?   Grant Francke  10:30   Yeah, so Rich Dad, Poor Dad kind of taught me about that not spending your giving your time for money is creating that loop of the money. So after that, you know, I started off just listening to all the podcasts. You know, I'd listen to your podcast, bigger pockets, Kathy Fettke, I'd listen to all those just on repeat, reading all the books that I could get my hands on. Because I was just once, I started learning about real estate. And it did scratch that entrepreneurial bug that I did have. It kind of gave me the both of the passive income and being able to build a business for myself as well. So I just went through all the education that I possibly could, podcasts, books, you name it. I was obsessed with it.   Keith Weinhold  11:08   Yeah, all right. Well, it's all about doing the right thing before you do things right, like we say here on the show. All right. So it sounds like you were confident that you were doing the right thing. You were in real estate. Tell us about the start, especially buying that first property. What was that like?   Grant Francke  11:25    Yeah, it was nerve wracking, right? It was a small, up down duplex in Lincoln, Nebraska. It's really one of my only properties I've actually gotten that's been on the market on the MLS. Just got an agent went and bought it and it was a good deal, like it cash flowed. Well, I took it down. I was managing it myself, and I still do manage my portfolio myself. I do vividly remember, like sitting in the living room of that doing my showings, and I just did after three or four showings, I couldn't get it rented, and I was listening to one of your podcasts, and you were talking about the different ways that real estate pays you, besides the income, and that really kept me motivated. This is a long term journey. This isn't a short term get rich quick thing. You know, by getting a tenant in there, it might take a month, but then they're going to pay down your note, you're going to get the tax benefits, you're going to get all those different items Flowing into you from real estate. So I remember that vividly from that first deal is listening to Keith in the living room.   Keith Weinhold  12:16   Yeah, being a profiteer in real estate, it's a little, maybe just a little like the iceberg analogy. Maybe only the top 20% of the iceberg is visible in what you see as profit. You're thinking about monthly income, and maybe you're thinking about appreciation. You don't see everything else below the iceberg that's underwater, I should say rather, like the inflation profiting on the debt and the loan amortization in the great basket of tax benefits, you sent me a paper letter earlier this year. One thing you wrote about is how the show influenced you, because you vividly remember sitting on the floor of your first ever vacant rental unit. So presumably it was in this Nebraska duplex, one of those units we're talking about here in this the show kept you motivated. You thought you were failing because you didn't get the unit rented after the first three showings, which I think we know now is sort of funny. That's really normal, even in a good rental market. You know, it could take more showings than three until you get the right match between a tenant that wants the unit and a tenant you'd accept. I mean, the tenant themselves, they have to accept all sorts of things. Uh, maybe they don't like the parking situation. Your unit layout has to be right. In my first ever property, which, as you know, was a four Plex, one problem I had is some tenants just didn't like the fact that the only bathroom in these four Plex units was upstairs. And then it's funny, as soon as you get the showing, say it's the sixth showing that you get it rented out, the problem's over. It's solved. You're back to 100% occupancy. And you wonder why you ever thought you had a problem. That's just sort of how that goes.   Grant Francke  13:43   Yeah, hindsight is always 2020. It's really stressful in the moment, but just keeping in mind that the different ways it pays you the different avenues of income that come from it, and that's even something like it was conceptually, I understood it, but it really didn't take effect for me till it was like five, six years down the road, and you go, look at your loan balance, and you look at what the inflation's done, you're like, well, that's a substantial amount of money that you've made just passively getting your tenants to pay down your debt.   Keith Weinhold  14:09   Yeah, some don't even think about the fact that your tenant is paying down your principal for you, an advantage that homeowners don't have, because homeowners, they just have $1 that goes from their cash pocket over to their equity pocket every month. But in your rental property, your tenant is doing that for you, and then inflation is, in almost all cases, paying down your loan silently, even faster than what that tenant is doing for you.   Grant Francke  14:31   It's amazing concept. Once you can can, can wrap your head around it   Keith Weinhold  14:35   all right, so you started with this duplex in your local area, Nebraska. Is there anything else to say about that first property, or is it more about the growth from there? That's more, yeah, it was   Grant Francke  14:46   the growth from there. That one was just like I said, kind of a base hit, and then we started scaling up after that. So my next purchase was another duplex, and I happened to find it on Craigslist, back when that was a thing, that you could find properties on Craigslist, and it was actually a retired engineer, rare. Order that was selling a duplex. I was like, Oh, this is great. We hit it off really well. Had a great transaction. I closed on time. I did what I said I was going to do, and then I was looking around on the assessor's website, and he had five more single family houses that were clearly rentals. I told him at the closing table. I'm like, Hey, if you ever want to sell those rentals, just let me know. You know, I'd love to scale our portfolio up. He ended up offering to sell or finance me those five properties with a minimum down payment. Well, just because we had just a great relationship, I showed up, I did what I said I was going to do, we ended up getting seven properties from that guy.   Keith Weinhold  15:33    Wow, that is huge, a way to scale up fast. So just with your behavior, your work ethic, the fact that you did what you said you were gonna do, you know, that engendered some sort of interest in the other party to offer you, seller financing. What percent down did you put on that next batch of properties?   Grant Francke  15:50   We did 10% down, great, and we had 5% interest on it, and we had a balloon payment due in, I think it was seven years so funny story about that. He sold all his rental properties. He was going to Florida to retire and just relax and and be a retired guy. He called me about two and a half years later. He's like, Hey, I still have the bug. I found a property I want to buy. Is there any way you could refinance the seller financing and close out my notes so I can use that capital to buy something? I was like, Yeah, Larry, I get it. Yeah. Let me see. I'll talk to the bank and see what I can do. But in those two years, I had done enough improvements in those properties and raised the rents, took care of them. When I went to refinance those five properties, I was able to pay two of them off, so I only had a loan on three and pay him back on the proceeds. So throughout that transaction, I pretty much had two properties free and clear, and then three houses on 30 year notes from Fannie and Freddie.   Keith Weinhold  16:44   How did you come up for the down payments with all this? Was this something you were able to do with income from the job as a railroad conductor?   Grant Francke  16:52    Well, that refinance was more like a burr model, so I was able to do all that with the equity inside that property. So those five single families that are refinanced. Was just all the equity inside those properties. So I didn't have to put any more money out. It was just the equity that was able to pay off the other two. And then I had the three on the notes, from appreciation, from appreciation, and, yeah, forced appreciation. So I was fixing up the units, raising the rents, you know, changing out flooring, redoing bathrooms, doing all that myself while I was still at my w2 job.   Keith Weinhold  17:21   Okay, really getting hands on, because you do have this bent of sort of a GC or a handyman, something that I personally didn't have, maybe this would have accelerated my wealth building faster had I done that. You're realizing that a source, you know, it doesn't have to be your own money from your own job. When you've got leverage, and you had 10 to one leverage on these, I believe it was what five single family homes that you had added seller financing that really multiplies you wealth substantially faster compound leverage, rather than compound interest. But a lot of people just let that equity die in their properties, rather than pulling it out a tax free event through a cash out refinance and moving it along.   Grant Francke  18:03   Yep. So we kept that process on. We buy a duplex that was needs some repairs. Nothing like crazy rundown, but you fix it up over 6,12, months, you do a refinance, and you just keep that ball rolling. And it makes the whole process really easy.   Keith Weinhold  18:15   I know that you are pretty open to discussing your assets, discussing your unit mix. So tell us about more of that expansion. What you brought it up to, and the exciting time when you've replaced your salary because you had enough income from the units.   Grant Francke  18:31   Yeah, so we would just keep that snowball method going of refinancing those two paid off properties we had, we had a line of credit against those as well, if we needed that for a down payment, or if we wanted to pay cash for something, we could use that leverage, that money from the bank and buy the property, do the refinance at the end, and pay it all back. And, you know, be out of pocket with minimal cash out of pocket for us. We just kind of kept that process going. And then once we had about 30 units, I would say so, about three years. So I started buying in 16, and then in September of 2019 is when I resigned from BNSF Railway and went full time.   Keith Weinhold  19:06   That's a great timeline. You mentioned some paid off properties there. And you know how I'm the proponent of leverage in good debt in all of them. But really you talked about despite the fact that you had, I think, two paid off properties, it sounds like single family homes. Early on, you were still able to leverage the fact that they were paid off as collateral for getting more loans. So you are still using those as other people's money despite the fact that they were paid off.   Grant Francke  19:31   Absolutely we still use it to this day. That's if we need a down payment, if we need a chunk of cash. That's where we go to is grab those from that line of credit.   Keith Weinhold  19:39   Talk to us more about sort of the sourcing of the financing. There were you getting together with some local banks in order to get good terms where you can collateralize some of your existing portfolios assets?    Grant Francke  19:52   So we used to use a small community bank here in Nebraska. I started with them, probably 2018 and I've been with them since you just create a really good relation. With them. They trust me. They know what I'm doing. They know if I bring them a deal like I'm not hiding anything, I'm not showing them certain numbers, it looks better like they trust what I'm doing. I trust that they're going to take care of me as well. It's always good to have a few in their back pocket. But if you have a really good relationship with one small community bank, it can take you pretty far.   Keith Weinhold1  20:18   Tell us about how you built that relationship with the community bank. I think a lot of people hear about how to do that. This doesn't mean going bowling with a banker and having to be your buddy for watching the NFL on the weekend. So I guess, how do you demonstrate that you're a capable business person to a local bank in order to get good treatment?   Grant Francke  20:37   That's a great question. So my first couple deals, I created a full deal pitch deck sheet that I brought in in a laminated folder of pictures, timelines, my past history of what I've done. So I started off on the right foot of showing them that I was very professional. And then the same thing, like with Larry, with the seller finance properties, I showed up. I did what I said I was going to do. I didn't close late. I always was on time. I was on time for my meetings. I was on time for my closings, just staying top of mind with them too. So if I didn't have a deal going on, I'd stop in when I was depositing some laundry change and just chat with my banker or chat with the check guy, and just make sure I stay top of mind with them.   Keith Weinhold  21:14   Yeah, it's a little bit like how people classically think about as interviewing for a job. It sort of sounds like you took a page out of that book, and you're sort of interviewing for a loan, if you will, tell us about your portfolio size now, and kind of what that asset mix is like.   Grant Francke  21:30   yeah, so we're up to about 120 units now, all in the Lincoln Nebraska area, all multi family, small, multi family. We saw those single family houses we hold on to. But otherwise it ranges from duplexes, four plexes, some six, eight units are mixed in there as well. So we're still just buying, like, just boring cash flowing deals. That's one thing I always say is, like, I just buy boring real estate. I don't want anything super stressful or super crazy, like, I'm not infilling to build ADUs. I'm just buying boring cash flowing rental properties.   Keith Weinhold  22:02   It really can be pretty boring. Real estate is really slow moving. Yeah, it's almost like the more boring the area of the nation that you invest in, the more likely that it's not a trendy place. And, you know, people are wearing Carhartt rather than Lulu Lemon. It's almost like that's an indicator of what a good market is we're talking with Grant Francke. He's a GRE listener. He's telling us how he built his portfolio from being a railroad conductor to going ahead and doing this on the side and leaving his day job. When we come back, we're going to talk about, was he nervous and like just what level did he have to get to before he had the confidence to quit his job and replace his salary. You're listening. To get rich, education more. We come back. I'm your host. 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Text, FAMILY to 66866.   hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine, at Ridge lending group NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation, because they specialize in income properties, they help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start Now while it's on your mind at Ridge lending group.com that's Ridge lending group.com   Caeli Ridge  24:35   this is Ridge lending group's president, Caeli Ridge listen To get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and remember, don't quit your Daydream.   Keith Weinhold  24:55   Welcome back to get rich education. It's one of my favorite types of episodes because we're talking about a GRE listener, much like you, with what you can do, where he started, what the architecture of his portfolio building was, and a big part of that is you don't really want to be debt free in real estate. You want to be financially free. You want to build enough income in order to replace the income from your day job. I want to talk about that part grant replacing your salary. That sounds really good in concept, we know that's what you need to do. When I personally was at that point, I still remember how scared I was to walk out from my cubicle where I was employed at a State Department of Transportation and walk across the hall and tell my boss's boss, Therese, that I'm giving my two weeks notice. I've got to admit, I was still scared. My heart's still racing a little bit just bringing it up and talking about it. So why don't you tell us about at what point you replaced your salary?   Grant Francke  25:55   My wife's an accountant. She's really good at like, Excel spreadsheets, so we made an Excel spreadsheet that factored in the tax benefits of real estate that I would get as a full time real estate investor. What my income was. I went to the lowest paying job at the railroad just to see if we could live off of that paycheck. So once we hit that cash flow number, which was, it wasn't a great big number, it was like 4800 a month or something, once we hit that number, she said, All right, I think we can do it. We're good to go. So I went in, and I only had one of my buddies at the railroad that knew I was going to resign that day. I was going to go in and resign, then clean out my locker. I got there, it was like, well, I'll just clean my locker out first and then make sure this is exactly what I want to do. I got my locker cleaned out. Everything was in my truck, and I walked in, and it was the most terrifying thing that I've ever done, you're walking away from a great union job with a heck of a pension that I've been there for at that time, 13 years, you know. So I had some seniority built up. I just went back to like my family again and thinking about all the times I'm going to spend with my kids, with my wife, the trips we'll be able to take, the memories we're going to be able to make, and the hard work that I put in those first three years of just grinding doing all the work myself, managing all the properties myself, that gave me that push. I was like, No, I can do this. These numbers make sense. The math adds up, and we're going to make it work. That's   Keith Weinhold  27:13   great. And by the way, I also walked away from a union job with the pension guaranteed retirement benefits, and they were guaranteed in the state's constitution because I had a state government job, so that pension wasn't going to go away, and I just went ahead and walked away from all that. Yeah, it certainly is a scary thing. It takes a certain level of confidence in order to go ahead and quit your job. But here's what I think, Confidence comes on the person that you made yourself be to on the side, build this portfolio and become the type of person that can demonstrate to a local bank that you're credit worthy and that you're an ethical operator. That's sort of a skill set that you build, such that if something went wrong and you had to go get a job again, you just sort of have a skill set where you know you could get another job. That's the confidence to quit.   Grant Francke  28:05   Yeah, once I had that confidence, built up and confidence in myself, you're kind of trained as even a man, just to not be proud, you know what I mean. But once I was proud of myself and what I built, it gave you that confidence, that I could walk in and say, No, I can do this on my own. I don't need this job. I'm done with it.   Keith Weinhold  28:20   Right to not need an employer. So not only walking away from a union and pension benefits and a paycheck, you're also walking away from paid vacation days and paid holidays. But yeah, I mean, part of that confidence is like, I know that I can, you know, furnish this myself. I'm not dependent. I don't need someone else. And that's really that feeling of freedom.    Grant Francke  28:42   Yep, absolutely, it's a very freeing feeling.    Keith Weinhold  28:45   On this show, a lot of investors start out with single family homes and part of that scaling process, and I really help encourage, hey, the rate of return from home equity is always zero on doing a cash out refinance, or a 1031 exchange, and at some point, say, maybe your single family homes, you probably have a few that are less desirable than others. Maybe you have a few single family homes in your rental portfolio that have higher interest rates. You just have a few where you just can't seem to keep them occupied very long. They're the ones that are ripe for doing a 1031 exchange or a cash out refinance. Why don't you talk more about sort of those next sets of properties where you might relinquish a couple single family homes and get into some of those properties, a four Plex, a six Plex, an eight Plex, a 10 Plex, and just sort of some of the differences in managing, since you're still self managing, is that right?    Grant Francke  29:37   Yeah, we just actually completed our first 1031 exchange about two months ago. Great. Oh, yeah. So we actually sold two duplexes. So we sold four units and bought 17 in the 1031 exchange. The cash flow is going to be as we buy them right now. We're getting a little bit better cash flow. But you know, the ability to scale that and the management side, for me is much easier. If I would rather manage 117 unit than 17 single families, spread out all the way around. I only have one lawn to work worry about, totally on one roof. I have one sewer system to worry about. It seems scary in the beginning, but now that why I'm at where I'm at, I would much rather take down a 10 Plex than 10 single family houses.   Keith Weinhold  30:19   100%. oftentimes single family homes, you know, they tend to be scattered. They're probably not all going to be in the same development that introduces management difficulties. Of course, I circumvent that because I totally use professional management for all of my properties. So that's really not problem or a hold up for me, where it sure would be with you. Yeah, there really is that mental leap. I've owned a few properties that have been 10 plexes or in that area, and there are just things to do with there that we know we don't need to deal with in single family homes or duplexes, there might be one central communal laundry room that you have to manage. And you know, how are you going to keep that clean? I had one particular eight Plex building while the kids just had their bicycles parked here and there in the front yard, and it looked junky. And my property manager built a screen, just like a fence, where you had to keep your bicycles behind there, and that really increased the curb appeal of the place. If that's a single family home, you don't really care so much about that grant. I once had an 11 unit building. It had four units on the top floor, four units on the middle floor and three units on the bottom floor. There was a laundry room where the fourth would have been. So we had 11 families live there, and there were about 14 parking spots for this 11 Plex building. And figuring out who was going to park where was a real mess. Some people had more than one car. Some people had seniority, so they felt like they should have gotten some of the spots we had the building next door where people tried to park at our 14 spots. That was such a mess. I told my property manager to you, go figure it out. You go assign the spot. So my point is, there are a whole bunch of dynamics when you kind of get into this 10 or so unit area that you just don't have with rental, single family homes.   Grant Francke  31:58   Absolutely. Yeah, I've had to have many conversations with people telling them I manage properties, not parking. I don't just figure it out be adults. I don't want to hear about your parking dilemmas, which I get too. You know, you also have, you have noise complaints, and you want to make sure everybody's being respectful of their neighbors when you get into those bigger buildings. So there are definitely pros and cons. But boy, if I, if I could have a 10 single families on the same street, that would be, you know, ideal management wise, that would be a lot easier, but it's just tough to get everything together.   Keith Weinhold  32:24   Is there any other guidance you can give with scaling up? Because a lot of people just continue to let so much equity accumulate in any one property, and they're not scaling up, you're sort of leaving some meat on the bone. There any other strategic things one can think through?   Grant Francke  32:38   Just take advantage of your cash out refinances when you can, I'm a proponent of leverage, but not over leveraged to where your negative cash flow on it, if you can cash out, refinance, pull your equity out, and still be making some money off of it, that's really going to allow you to scale over time, a lot larger than just holding that one duplex and waiting for it to give you that cash flow, that financial freedom. You really got to take that equity out, spread it out over multiple properties, and then watch them all scale up at the same time.   Keith Weinhold  33:05   There's probably less risk when one does that. People are averse to making that move because they think about how they're taking on more debt. But the more you cash out and scatter it into more properties, you've got more diversification geographically, if you want to. And really, I think the mindset that helps people with this is, when you do a cash out refinance, you didn't lose any equity. You really transferred some of your equity.   Grant Francke  33:30   yep, tax free too, which is something you harp on, like it's tax free money. You get to walk away and not pay taxes on it.    Keith Weinhold  33:38   It's really amazing. All right, well, so you have a substantial portfolio of about 120 units in is it all in and around Lincoln Nebraska?   Grant Francke  33:47   Yep, Lincoln Nebraska and a couple small communities around there, some more college type towns that have industries in them as well. But all the Lincoln Nebraska area.   Keith Weinhold 33:55   we don't talk about Lincoln Nebraska here on the show very often. What kind of personality does the market have? Whether that's, you know, like you mentioned, is there a preponderance of student housing? Are there particular economic sectors that really help float and drive that market? Tell us about Lincoln as a real estate investment market.   Grant Francke  34:13   Like I said, with boring real estate, it's a great boring real estate town. We've got a couple universities in Lincoln. It's a big ag area, obviously, so surrounded by the the ag industry. But it's also got some great tech jobs that are coming in. It's just a very steady it doesn't have a lot of the ups and downs. You know, 2008 was obviously tough with everybody, but there wasn't this massive housing correction here. We're just kind of slow and steady, which is that's kind of my pace.   Keith Weinhold  34:39   typical of what I call a stable market, where, conversely, you tend to have the volatile markets that are on the coast. I'm going to imagine in 2008 it didn't go down in value nearly as much as markets, but in the big housing price run up in 2021, I'm going to guess you got some really nice appreciation, but probably not as much as a lot of the other markets as well.   Grant Francke  34:58   Yeah. Absolutely that depreciation, then that inflation run up, was pretty substantial. But, yeah, it's just a really boring real estate market that just steady. There's some great rentals. There's a lot of people that move into, move into town, from Lincoln, from outside, that go to school or start out here, and then they go somewhere else. So it's great town.   Keith Weinhold  35:16   What about some other things in the character of the market? What are property taxes, like one or 1.2% per year based on the value of the property. That's about a national average. How does Lincoln look that way?   Grant Francke  35:29   Yeah, it's a little bit higher. Right now, there's been some fighting in our legislature about how they're trying to fix that, because we have a really fairly good budget in Nebraska tax wise. So they're fighting to get us some relief now, but it's a little bit, I guess, like 1.3 or 1.4 right now in Nebraska.   Keith Weinhold  35:43   a little higher than the national average. But really, the more important metric, one I talk about a lot, because it's so simple, is approximately, let's say, for a rental, single family home, is what is the ratio of the rent income per month to the purchase price?   Grant Francke  36:00   Yeah, it's tough to find those 1% deals anymore. Those are tougher to come by. I think if you're buying a single family right now, you're probably going to be, at that .75% of the income to the property. If you get into multifamily. We're still finding deals that are decent around that 1%   Keith Weinhold  36:15   so with the 710, of 1% rent to price ratio as an example, on a $200,000 purchase price property, that would be a rent of $1,400 so you can find something like   Grant Francke  36:28   that. It sounds like that's usually about, yeah, for single family, I think that's what we're seeing. But like I said, multi family, we're getting pretty close to that 1% still with with some added rent.   Keith Weinhold  36:37   Do you think about branching into other markets? Like a lot of our investors do, not everyone lives in an investor advantage market like Lincoln, but even those that do say, if they live in a Columbus, Ohio or in Indianapolis, Indiana, they might want to add a couple markets for diversification, maybe Metro in Alabama and another one in Florida. Do you plan to continue to grow right there, since you have these great local relationships with local banks.   Grant Francke  37:03    I mean, it'd be tough. There is a couple of markets we've looked at, like San Antonio, I really like that one. And then Louisville, Kentucky. I've been there a few times, and it's just a great town. And I think there's some really good industry down there too. So those are the two that would be on my list. I haven't taken a massive action on getting down there yet, but if I were, that's probably be where I go.   Keith Weinhold  37:21   Of course, San Antonio is going to have those higher property taxes, but I just visited San Antonio last month. They really look to be the beneficiary of this near shoring movement, with more companies relocating to Mexico, this is great. We talked about how you grew your portfolio. Are there any other strategies overall that you employ any mindsets that you make actionable, either that you learned about on this show, or just anything else that you do in there grant your keys to success, your formula.   Grant Francke  37:49   The big thing for me is like, my why? Like, why did I do this? And why was I doing it that was huge for me in the beginning, and my, why was my wife and kids like? I wanted to spend more time with them. So when you know your why, like, all these tough things that happen, because, like, you know pipes are going to break, tenants are going to be tenants, and things are going to go wrong. So if you know your why and why you're doing that, it makes it so much more easy to get through those difficult times. So it's really a mindset thing, which is kind of odd thing to say, but it's a mindset thing, because things are gonna go wrong, so you gotta have a strong why behind you.   Keith Weinhold  38:22   Did you write down your why?   Grant Francke  38:24   I did? Yes, I'm big in goal setting as well, so I write goals and like, every year and then quarterly as well. So writing down my why and knowing that, it helped me when I was working on those properties and driving back and forth, listening to get rich education, just knowing why I was doing this, it made it a lot easier.   Keith Weinhold  38:42   Yeah, there's something about writing it down. I've even learned that using blue ink on yellow paper, somehow there is something about doing that in particular that really helps create this imprint in your mind. But however you do it, yeah, writing it down is so important, and that way this goal doesn't become a morphous or malleable when you do that.   Grant Francke  39:03   yeah, it sets it in stone. You can look at it. It's actually physically there. It's not something just conjestually in your head. It's actually something that's taken place.   Keith Weinhold  39:10   You have had such success. Gosh, congratulations on that, such that you even created a resource. But before I ask you about that, is there just any last thing that you'd like to talk about in your journey overall, whether that's goal setting and having a good why, or any GRE concepts, or just really anything else that's led to your success, to have 120 units.   Grant Francke  39:32   it really goes back to, like I said, my why, and then the education. So I do want to thank you again, like, for all the podcasts and and all the information you put out. It was uh very, impactful on me as I was learning the reason that why GRE always spoke well to me is like you would talk about conjectural things, about real estate and cash flow and all this, but it was also the larger economic process of how things worked, how things mixed together. So having that in my brain too and in my back pocket really gave. Me the confidence to attack these things when inflation started happening. I'm like, Oh, that was nothing I ever thought about. But I've heard you talk about it for hours and hours on the end. So I'm like, I understand how this works now, and I know how I'm positioned. I can use it to my advantage as well. So a lot of those things helped me out scaling up and just taking all those resources that we got from the show.   Keith Weinhold  40:17   Yeah, we're actually beneficiaries of inflation here, which is certainly pretty counter cultural. With your success, you put together a resource, and I definitely want you to share it with our audience, because this is something I really think they can benefit from, because they can relate to your story. I'm pretty confident.   Grant Francke  40:35   appreciate it. Yeah, so I wrote a book. It's called the unlikely investor. It's available on Amazon, but it's just a book that I took, kind of my story from a w2 employee to scaling up to where I am. Now, some of those tips and tricks in there. I have maybe plagiarized some stuff from Keith's podcast, and we talked about some the different pillars of wealth that you get from real estate. But it really just kind of goes into the mindset part too, of finding your why, goal setting, and then the basics of real estate investing on up through scaling up to a decent sized portfolio.   Keith Weinhold  41:07   Oh, I know, in every instance you credited me in the book.   Grant Francke  41:11   I do. I did, yeah.   Keith Weinhold  41:13   I really don't care. It's more about, you know, people getting the information, rather than me getting any credit for that. That's great. And you know the name The unlikely investor? When I learned that that was a title of your book, for a moment, that threw me off. I'm like, I wonder what that means. But you know what? No, I think I know what that means. You can tell me, but I'm an unlikely investor. I went to college for geography and regional planning. That was my double major. I thought I'd be a geography teacher. It's just really unlikely that I got into real estate, I didn't have this bent in me anywhere within academia. So why do you call it the unlikely investor?   Grant Francke  41:49   That same story, you know, I had a great w2 job, I had a great union, a great pension. There's really no reason that I had to go out and do this. It's very unlikely. You know, if you look at the numbers of our peers that actually do what we've done. It's extremely unlikely that we did it, so it was a great call to action of like, No, you can do this. It may seem unlikely, but it's possible.   Keith Weinhold  42:09   Oh, well, I think that title is 100% appropriate. That was good to talk with you more, and I really want to thank you for coming onto the show, because you're going to help out a lot of people with your story and you the listener. If you find it relatable, check out. Grant's new book just published this year. It's called The Unlikely Investor Grant Francke, it's been great having you here on GRE    Grant Francke  42:33   appreciate it. Keith, it's an honor.   Keith Weinhold  42:40   Grant mentioned the tax breaks when you leave your job quickly, so as not to gloss over that when you're at the point where you're getting close to leaving your job, if that's even a goal of yours, some people want to get in real estate just for some additional income. But like he said, it was at a point where he and his family needed just $4,800 of rent income per month. That was back a few years ago there, and your number will almost surely be higher than that with the inflation that we've had. But you know, figure that in once you quit your job, you're probably going to identify for what's known as the real estate professional designation, as outlined by the IRS, what that is, is the status that gives you some really nice tax breaks. And one way in which you qualify is that real estate needs to be your principal activity, meaning you expand more of your time per week in real estate than you do any other discipline. Now, I'm not a CPA, but frequent guests here, Tom wheelwright and I, we have discussed the real estate professional designation on a prior episode, and every year, there's a form that I quickly fill out myself confirming my ongoing real estate professional designation. Now you're probably not going to be able to qualify for that when you still have a day job, because that's going to be your principal activity, where you spend most of your time each week, and also before you do quit your job, if that's a goal of yours, well, it is a good time to first qualify for loans Fannie and Freddie like the steadiness of a w2 income. So qualify for your last few loans before quitting. There might even be a seasoning period in there as well. Now, when it comes to today's guest grant, when he reached out to the show here, you know there's something about his approach that engenders this willingness to want to collaborate with him. I think I shared with you before that we get 50 times as many requests to be a guest on the show as we have available slots, but Grant, I guess, exudes this professionalism while being humble, and it just makes you want to see him win, and yeah, no wonder his local banks want to make him loans. I gave a formal written endorsement of Grant's new book earlier this year the. Forwarders, written by Brandon Turner, the book titled The unlikely investor. I mean, I might be an even less likely real estate investor than Grant because he's somewhat handy. That's a skill a handle. He's got that I don't have. I am a writer and well then somehow became, I guess, an unlikely podcaster or two in the book. He also writes that if you're unhappy in real estate investing, it means that your system is broken. So if you're seeking an approachable, relatable book, one where you can really, like, put yourself in the author's shoes and tell yourself, you know I can do that and I can be that. Well, then check out grant Frankie's book called The Unlikely Investor. More great shows coming up for you every Monday here. I'm grateful for your listenership. I'm your host. Keith whitehold, don't quit your Daydream.   Speaker 2  46:03   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively,   Keith Weinhold  46:23   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com    

Get Rich Education
530: Why We Hate Jeff Bezos

Get Rich Education

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 2, 2024 38:34


Keith discusses the paradox of falling home prices and rents in Austin, Texas, despite it being the fastest-growing city. He highlights the over-supply of apartments, with new towers next to old bungalows, and notes that apartment rents are down, while single-family home rents are up. He also explores societal attitudes towards wealth, noting the double standard of admiring celebrities while vilifying entrepreneurs like Jeff Bezos. The over-supply of apartments has slowed down rent growth, affecting single-family home rents. Wage growth has outpaced inflation, potentially boosting rents. Millennials are increasingly renting due to the inability to afford homes.  Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/530 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching:GREmarketplace.com/Coach Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai  Keith Weinhold  0:01   Welcome to GRE I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, I just walked one of America's most interesting real estate streets. I'll tell you what I saw then what it takes to get rents to increase in the US more real estate investing content, then it's about jealousy and envy. Why we hate Amazon founder Jeff Bezos for his wealth, yet love performers like LeBron James and Taylor Swift for theirs. It's a case study on wealth, entrepreneurship and celebrity today on get rich education.   Speaker 1  0:39   Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit getricheducation.com.   Corey Coates  1:25   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  1:41   Welcome to GRE from sinking spring Pennsylvania to Manitou Springs, Colorado and across 488 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are inside episode 530 of the GRE podcast. What's the minimum wage? I don't even know. Around here, we don't talk about how to live below your means, but grow your means, and you're gonna learn how to earn maximum wage. Austin, Texas is the fastest growing city in America. I've got some really interesting real estate observations for you, since I walked it two weeks ago and well, touring the Texas State Capitol Building was cool. And then on Austin's Sixth Street, I hadn't seen that much beer pong since college, but you know, rainy street, R A, I N, E Y, just south of the downtown, near the river, that was Austin's interesting Real Estate Street, the fastest growing city in the United States has falling home prices and falling rents. What a paradox that is in the fastest growing city. I mean, how do you balance that weirdness? Yes, the census tells us that Austin is the fastest growing and even as a gentrified hipster Haven with murals on the walls, street corners, there food trucks, coffee shops. You know the coffee shops that make you feel like you're in an indie film. It doesn't matter. They simply built too much there in Austin. So all of that that cannot compete with classic supply versus demand dynamics, old fashioned Milton Friedman stuff. And really, what I saw in both San Antonio and Austin is emblematic of the new apartment supply surge. What's going on on rainy street? I mean, that's what I call America's apartment over supply ground zero. Cranes are in the air all over the place. They're building 500 foot apartment towers right across the street from one story bungalows there on Rainey Street. It's a weird scene. Well, the apartments, they're going to be vacant for a while, and part of the weird scene is that there are outdoor live country music acts on the east side of rainy street, and they're playing out of these old one story bungalows converted to bars. It just feels like they're going to be raised and knocked over anytime and then country music, that's something that you associate with, like cows grazing within a mile of you. But that is not going on here, so these huge, new, shiny glass and steel apartment towers are right across the street from it. So it's this weird cultural mix of both country flare and urbanism in Austin and now there were also some clubs with DJs playing. There something more modern. I mean, like 20 year old R and B songs that everyone knows the words to by artists like Usher and Akon. Remember. Or a con or Ja Rule. Remember Ja Rule? Maybe they were playing Jay Z and ice cube too. But, you know, maybe shabu Z would have made more sense on that scene. In any case, it is an unusual scenario there in Austin. So a lively place, a growing place, but apartment buildings got out ahead of the growth. And yes, it all comes back to supply versus demand. Yep, that age old rivalry between what we've got and what we want now broadly, America has an overall lack of housing supply and the under building that is the most prevalent in northern states. And of course, under building, what that does is it increases the number of buyer bids on the few available properties. Well, in turn, that pushes up their home prices faster than the rest of the nation. Now the states with the most appreciation, they generally have the least new housing inventory being built. And of course, conversely, states with the highest available housing supply have the slowest home price appreciation. Austin is ground zero for that. So with the eclectic rainy street there, it's really representative of how you have some cities that are over built with apartments. You have a lot of apartment completions, but not very many new starts of apartments like I mentioned before. No, in fact, let's zoom out nationally. Here. Apartment list tells us that apartment rents are really flat. In fact, they're down seven tenths of 1% over the past year, available single family homes? Well, they're in more scarce supply than apartments, and the CoreLogic single family rent index tells us that their rents are up 2% annually. All right, something that completely makes sense for a change. The overbuild of apartments has slowed down their rent growth even more. But here's the thing, the overbuilding of apartments that's actually slowed down the rent growth in single family homes somewhat. And you might think that those two things aren't related, apartment rents and single family rents, but they're a little related. Just say a tenant they might ideally want a single family home, but there just aren't many of them out there for rent nationally. So then if a good new apartment is substantially cheaper, well, some proportion are going to accept an apartment as an alternative, and that's one reason that single family rent growth is just a modest 2% rather than a more normal 4% or so that you might see as a historic average. But yeah, I mean, really, the story is all these apartment completions, where a lot of them are going to be vacant for a while in some cities now, long term, apartments are going to be fine. I'm totally confident of that the demographic demand for apartments is going to be there because our population is growing and because there aren't many new apartment starts. So really that means over the next couple years, apartment supply versus demand is going to come more back into balance, while we could keep having this ongoing deficiency, though over for the single family rental homes. Perhaps the best thing that you and I can have happen to increase real estate profitability is to get rents up. So let's take a look at that. Let's look at the prospects for getting rents up in, just say, the next year or two. And there is a real bright spot here for that, and that is the fact that wages have outpaced inflation every single month for almost two years now, yes, wages and incomes are up those higher wages and higher incomes can therefore afford higher rents. And like with a lot of things in economics, it moves slowly, and there is a lag effect. And this is, you know, it's really how it usually works when there is a wave of inflation. What happens is, first, inflation outpaces wage growth, and now that we've come down off the big inflation wave, we're in the era where it has flipped, and now wage growth outstrips inflation. Well, the most recent stats, they tell us that America now has 4.6% wage growth and just 2.6% CPI inflation growth. Now is wage growth higher than the real diminished purchasing power of the dollar, not just the stated CPI inflation, because you got to remember, CPI is only the level that the government is willing to admit to, but in a sense, who cares? Because look, as a real estate investor, while your principal and interest payment stays fixed every month and inflation can't touch it, we know that wage growth is up 4.6% and that's the part that really. Matters. So if that means that you can get a 4.6% rent growth in the near future, after some lag effects settle in, well that might increase the annual cash flow, the money you feel in your pocket, say, 7% or 9% annually. So this wage growth trend, it portends really well for rent growth, ultimately flowing through to your cash flow growth. So we know that home price appreciation is amazing and has been amazing for us, investors, leverage and all of that, but there expects to be more upward pressure on rents, and that is led by robust wage growth. That is really happening now, and workers are demanding the wage growth to cope with higher consumer prices. Now, when it comes to the prospect of more home price growth, let's listen in to Shark Tank shark Barbara Corcoran, she recently talked about what would make home price growth go ballistic, as she puts it. This was her on Fox Business Channel with Neil cabotto. It's about three minutes in length, and then I'll be back to comment.   Speaker 2  11:08   Barbara Corcoran. Now the Corcoran Group founder, Shark Tank aficionado, much, much more brilliant read of real estate too, Barbara, great to have you. A lot I'm throwing at you, Barbara, and you always handle it, definitely. But first off, on the rate environment right now, between all these headlines and everything, rates have been backing up. And, you know, we just saw a 30 year fixed rate mortgage. It's up to 6.84% from 6.78% last week. That was before the market rate run up. So how do you view the environment right now for lending?   Speaker 3  11:43   Well, I think what we're losing right now we desperately need is more first time buyers. Less than 24% of the people buying now are first time buyers at an all time low. So rates have been bouncing around a while. Now, 6 to 7% so people are confused. They don't have big expectations. They're no longer waiting for a tremendous rate drop. If that happens, got it would be incredible for the market. But in the last year, or pardon me, in the last month alone, we have sold three and a half percent more houses despite what's going on in the interest rates. But the first time buyers aren't much a piece of that.   Speaker 2  12:16   You know, I notice as well us existing home sales, like you say, up 3.4% October. It's the first year over year gain I think we've seen in better part of three years. So what was going on there? Because that surprised me.   Speaker 3  12:30   Well, it doesn't surprise me because there's more houses on the market, so there were 25% more choices for the buyer coming out into the market and looking and on top of that, the buyers themselves have gotten accustomed to the rates being what they are, and they just got tired of waiting. But I am wondering if we'll ever see a 5% number, because anything with the 5% in front of it is going to make this market go ballistic. But right now, you're already seeing the signs. In the last month.   Speaker 2  12:59   You know, you've reminded me in the past that sometimes it's psychological. A lot of folks, and a lot of them look at that 7% handle on a fixed rate mortgage get close to or over that it could tax this recovery or whatever you want to recourse call it. But what do you say.   Speaker 3  13:13   well if it went higher? Of course, it would slow down the whole market. Would slow down the whole economy. It would slow down all the support services for the housing market, it would be a terrible thing, but I don't think people are thinking it's going to go much up, if you really listen to the experts. That could happen. But I don't think you're going to see interest rates above 7% again. I'm hoping that it's going to go and hover around six, or even go lower.   Speaker 2  13:36   All right. Well, you have a better track record a lot of those so called experts. I'm going to go with you, Barbara. But you know, the one thing that is out there, the worry is that Donald Trump, say what you will, of him, he has aggressive plans to spur the economy, you know, the tariff thing, the talk that, you know, he is going to pour a lot into tax cuts that could juice the economy so much so that some worry it's going to, you know, get prices going higher. We don't know for how long or how much, but that that that will be the inevitable consequence of what he's offering. Do you agree with that?   Speaker 3  14:06   I do agree with that. I think inflation is on everybody's mind, and I think it's risky, so I think we're going to find out. I guess it's like a horse race. We'll see what happens.   Keith Weinhold  14:15   Yeah, Barbara thinks mortgage rates in the fives. I guess under six then that would make the market go nuts and really push up prices. She reiterated how first time home buying is at an all time low, that proportion of the first time homebuyers are down, down, down, keeping those people as renters. So we've got the Trump bump and still an inflationary bump behind higher and higher real estate prices going into next year, most likely. But I mean, now you've really got to be selective and filter the kind of information that you listen to and put credence in what. We just had a presidential election a month ago, and people love to speculate about the future and what they think say tariffs are going to mean for inflation and then what that's going to do to interest rates. And you know, all that stuff is just notoriously difficult to predict. It is really tough. I mean, look, I've attended two prominent economic and real estate conferences the last few months, and there are some good insights at meetings like that. But here's the thing you've got to keep in mind, everyone has an opinion, and no one knows the future. George Bernard Shaw's got a great quote. He said, If all the economists were laid end to end, they would never reach a conclusion. So I mean, we're still going to talk inflation and interest rates here on the show, because their effect on your economic life is profound, but guessing about where they're going to go, especially interest rates, that is almost an exercise in futility. There are some things that we know will almost surely affect you. I mean, I'm talking about something like demographics that is more predictable, or the benefit of leverage, where, if you have too much equity in your properties, you can do something about that right now, and that way, what you do is you actually create your future, instead of guessing and speculating about what it might be. Or say you can create your future. You can learn about a program like you know when the opportunity Zone program came out a while ago, or a new tax incentive program for real estate investors. These are things you can do. You can sink your teeth into them with what you have right now, the resources, the toolkit that you have right now, and actually do something about and one thing that we do know is that increasingly, millennials cannot afford to buy a house, and you know, it just basically means that their future is poorer. They have to live with other people into their 30s. Instead of forming a family, they don't have kids. The marriage rate takes a hit. I mean, these numbers have collapsed since the 1980s the home ownership rate among them has gone from about 50% down to 30% so millennials and Gen Z ers too, they know that their future is really shaky and it's concerning. So you have this same cohort, people in their 30s doing two jobs, taking on three jobs, some of them balancing four jobs. They don't want to do that. They don't want to work 12 hour days, six days a week, while they're trying to pay down their college loans. They're doing it because they have to. They can't form a down payment for a home. The average millennial is 3637 years old. And their parents, and my parents, they're all baby boomers. And, you know, they Baby Boomers were the richest generation that we've ever seen. So what we've got going on here now is the first generation that will not be as rich as their parents, and that's really strange. We're all used to this sort of human progress. I mean, if your parents were middle class people, and you're less well off than them, or your tenant is well, then what does that mean? Well, it means that you're gonna be renting for a while. See this demographic stuff. This is really happening. There is no speculation here, and it's why I want you to set up your investor life to provide rental property to others. It's a smart place to be positioned. In fact, a lot of media agrees. Yahoo Finance just published an article titled, rental home investors are poised to benefit. It basically details why rental properties are going to be next year's attractive option for would be home buyers. This month, analysts at Raymond James and Associates, they say that they see mortgage rates remaining higher for longer given the outcome of the election, again, no one can really predict mortgage rates. But anyway, they reiterated their outperform ratings. That's the rating that they gave it out perform on these two companies, American homes for rent and invitation homes. And they're these institutional homebuyers, they do the build to rent space, and they noted Raymond James that is noted that we are increasingly confident in the longer term outlook for single family rental fundamentals and the industry's growth prospects. That's the end of their quote. So that's what the analysts of financial planning firm. Raymond James and Associates, had to say. And suffice to say, there is a lot of positive momentum for rental property, especially in the single family space coming up next. Why we hate Jeff Bezos for his wealth, but love performers like Harry Styles, Rihanna, Taylor Swift, Dua Lipa and Olivia Rodrigo, despite their wealth.    Hey, check out all of our real estate investing resources at get rich education.com. It's the home per our podcast, this very show that you're listening to right now. Also videos, blogs, how to get our newsletter. Be sure you're doing that. Connections with our recommended real estate service providers, a way for you to contact us over there, and also how you can connect with our completely free, yes, truly free, real estate investment coaching, all of that and more. Is it get rich education.com. I'm Keith Weinhold. More next you're listening to get rich education.    Oh, geez, the national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings, so your bank is getting rich off of you. You've got to earn way more, or else you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk, your cash generates up to a 10% return and compounds year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25k you keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back. Their decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And you know how I'd know, because I'm an investor in this myself, earn 10% like me and GRE listeners are text FAMILY to 66866, to learn about Freedom Family Investments, liquidity fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text FAMILY to 66866.   Hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine at Ridge lending group NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation, because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start Now while it's on your mind at Ridge lendinggroup.com That's ridgelendinggroup.com   Dolf Deroos  22:48   this is the king of commercial real estate, Dolph de Roos. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.   Keith Weinhold  23:08   Welcome back to get rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, a Taylor Swift loving friend recently said the weirdest thing to me, I don't buy from Amazon. I hate Jeff Bezos. He doesn't need any more money. Yeah, that's what they said that struck me as so odd. Well, Taylor Swift is a billionaire with a B and a net worth of $1.6 billion and going up. And you know, we're doing this everywhere in society. Why do we vilify wealthy entrepreneurs like Bezos yet glorify wealthy actors and athletes and singers like Taylor Swift? Let's look into this, because I've actually got some answers for why so many people apply this double standard to wealthy celebrities and well known people. And I know I've mentioned to you before that Taylor Swift and I were actually born in the same hometown of Reading, Pennsylvania, West Reading, actually vilifying business people yet glorifying performers. That seems to transcend, you know, any of these celebrity personality or character flaws. So let's put all that stuff aside that's distracting, that devolves and gets us off topic. Let's just focus on the wealth part and the resentment of that wealth, because often it's not that people dislike Bezos for say, the decline of small retail though there is that for any of his personal traits, but specifically they hate his wealth, but by the way, yet they have an Amazon account. Well. As a society, we just love celebrities despite their wealth, if they're stage performers like Rihanna, Taylor Swift, Dua Lipa, Olivia Rodrigo, Harry Styles, LeBron James. I mean, we applaud Stephen Curry's three pointers and show a otani's home runs when Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts got a $255 million contract extension. We loved it. Fans plastered their walls with his poster, but yet, at the same time, while people are doing that, society often disparages successful entrepreneurs and business owners for their wealth, like Bezos or Barbara Corcoran, who we heard from earlier, or Spanx founder, Sarah Blakely, so I analyze why society does this, so let's see what we can learn from it. And I should add, of course, that like with most anything, you can find some exceptions out there, some outliers. I mean, Warren Buffet's net worth is over 100 billion and yet seems like everyone wants to sit around a campfire and listen to his sage investing wisdom, and some athletes are despised, for sure. And then there's a guy like Ryan Reynolds who kind of spans both worlds and lives his best life in Hollywood and in business, but really our emotional divide. It begins with the primordial human senses of jealousy and envy. And, you know, there's a cartoon floating around out there, and the cartoon has just two frames. In the first frame, it shows a guy standing in front of the room with a crowd of people that he's speaking to, and he asks, Who hates the rich? And everyone in the crowd has their hand up raised high. Everyone hates the rich. And then the second frame of the cartoon shows the same scene, and the guy in the front of the room is saying, Now, who wants to be rich? And yeah, everyone's got their hand raised up again. So let's be realistic. Ask most people that resent the wealthy, all right, what income do you think you'd need to be to be considered rich yourself? Oh, maybe they would answer say, five times as much as I make it now. Oh, yeah. Well, I bet if right after that, you offered them a 5x pay raise for the same job, they would take it, but yet they resent the wealthy, even though 5x would make them wealthy. Now there's a component of optics here, too. You, with your own eyes, get to see Taylor Swift perform at a concert. Her work is visible. It's satisfying. You might be emotionally moved by that. And from all accounts, Taylor does put in a ton of work to perform that well, sing that well, and put in the physical endurance of these three plus hour concerts. That really is amazing. I don't denigrate her for owning a Dassault Falcon private jet like she does. I mean, I don't disparage any wealthy person for wealth alone. I think deep down in your heart, it's where a lot of people want to be. Robert Downey, Jr. He performs his we'll call it his magnum opus, on screen as Iron Man Tony Stark in Marvel movies, and he's been paid up to $600 million for that role across many movies, but yet, you know, we find that satisfying, which is weird. I mean, Taylor Swift, she is herself, but actors like Robert Downey Jr actually pretend to be someone else. So we praise an actor like Robert Downey Jr, and he's best known for pretending to be someone else, but yet we despise say, Apple's leader Tim Cook, for his wealth. Why in the heck would that be I mean, how do you justify that? Well, it's because Tim Cook's performances aren't visible. It's optics. You didn't get to see the process of how Bezos revolutionized Amazon's 24 hour delivery to your doorstep or drone delivery. What bezels is doing on a computer is not exactly a spectator sport. Okay, we don't get to see the work that Apple Steve Jobs did for our iPhone, or what Tim Cook does for our iPhone or iPad or MacBook. So therefore it's less satisfying because it wasn't visible. And yet, Tim Cook's highest endeavor, it's less glamorous than that of an actor. And yet Tim Cook completely acts like himself. For all ways I can tell, unlike an actor and Tim Cook, he really shapes the world that you and I live in today. I mean, he has definitely influenced your life more than some fictitious superhero has. There's also an element of imitation here, and this is really important, because look, you and I really for all intents and purposes, we cannot be like Taylor Swift or LeBron James. But you know what we can be a little like Jeff Bezos or Tim Cook, at some point in your life, you get real and you tell yourself that you cannot be like Lebron James. You cannot sprout to be six foot nine and be the all time leader in NBA point scored, you're not going to be like Taylor Swift. And had the highest grossing musical tour of all time with more than 7 million tickets sold. Now you couldn't sell any tickets to people that would want to see you sing. I sure couldn't. But see, you can be a successful entrepreneur. You just have to do, and when you have to do, and you know you could do those things. See, this means that you and I don't have any cop out. So sometimes we refute an entrepreneur success to try to let ourselves off the hook from actually doing you know, I think it's human nature to sort of protect our ego and tell ourselves, ah, I can't be like them. But that's false, because being wealthy is a choice, something I actually didn't believe when I was younger. If you wanted to you, yes, not some other listener, but you could have a successful business and perhaps even parlay your success into being a yacht owner, you could actually be that now, yacht owner, that's not some goal of mine. But see, instead of resenting a yacht owner, you can be inspired by that success. You don't have to launch a space company and fly people to Mars. You can do something here on earth. You can own a successful e commerce company, or rent out cars to people, or provide what people truly need and righteously serve a lot of people with housing. As a real estate investor, you can do all those things, even if it's just 1% of the level that Bezos does with E commerce, even if it's 1/10 of 1% see, you can get a piece of that. This is similar to how popular culture denigrates landlords and yet over sympathizes with tenants. Sometimes the tenant is right, but the landlord is often not some mega corporation. They're usually a mom and pop investor that took on risk and took out a mortgage loan to provide property for a complete stranger. Now let's say that you achieve what we'll call success, quote, unquote, success as a real estate entrepreneur, because you just added your 20th rental unit, right? You had 19, as soon as you go to 20, then is that the right level at which you're supposed to start being denigrated? But up to that point, it was okay. I mean, see, this can sound a little silly. In fact, just last week, at the New Orleans investment conference, I met a GRE listener and investor, Jenny from Indiana. She actually owns 19 rental units. They're mostly single family rentals. All right. Well, is it okay to own 19? But then she should start being resented once she adds her 20th property and serves that many people, that doesn't make any sense, and neither does resenting Bezos, I mean, he grew up in challenging conditions with a 17 year old mother and An alcoholic father. Bezos worked, innovated, took risks, raised money. His Guiding Light at Amazon has been an ethical three words, serve the customer. That's a good thing. He came from disadvantaged conditions to serve the customer. And the good news here is that you can do this too. You don't need to have a certain body type or an IQ. Serve the tenant, serve the market. I mean, I have seen successful entrepreneurs that are overweight, short, old, young, tall, female, male, even dyslexic, and they have all crushed it in business among the world's 8 billion people. You yourself see life in a way that no one else sees it. So at some point you learn that you really can't sing like Taylor Swift, or jump over a car like LeBron, or be as funny as. Meet bargatsi, but you can be you, and that's enough, but you have to do and, oh yeah, not give up every time things get tough, but nobody's stopping you. An entrepreneur is a crazy person who risks their own money for freedom, rather than exchanging their freedom for money, you took the leap critics stand on the sidelines when they're disparaged only because they're wealthy. It says more about the critic than it says about you, the successful entrepreneur and real estate investor. So instead, you can ask yourself the question, what is stopping me from creating my own version of that success? We misdirect our emotions when we vilify entrepreneurs and glorify stage performers merely based on what's more visible, more emotional and more imitative, rather than the Creator of the products and services that put real value in your life. So don't be ashamed of applying yourself and using your ingenuity in your strategy, in your careful risk taking for earning more income for yourself. We shouldn't disparage Bezos, LeBron, Taylor Swift or Dua Lipa for the wealth, because it is the same kind of success that we all wish that we could have.    coming up in future weeks on the show here we're getting closer to the end of the year where I will reveal get rich education's home price appreciation forecast for next year right here on the show. And I'm gonna give you an exact percentage national home price appreciation number. You're gonna know what to expect. I've done that for you for a few years here now I think this is gonna be the fourth year in a row where I'm doing it. It's sort of becoming a tradition, but coming up before that here on the show, I've shared with you how you know it's usually going to take you five years or more to go from your day job to financial freedom through real estate investing, but we've had some nice appreciation the last few years, and some GRE listeners are doing it faster than five years pretty soon, here, I'm gonna have a conversation with the GRE listener that applied principles that he heard here on the show, and he quit his job for real estate in just three years, he's gonna be here with me and tell you how he did it. Thanks for listening.   Hey, go ahead andtell a friend about the show here, take a screenshot and post it on your social media. I really appreciate you sharing the GRE Podcast with your friends and others until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, Don't Quit Your Daydream.   Speaker 4  37:56   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice, please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively.   Keith Weinhold  38:24   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, getricheducation.com.

Get Rich Education
529: How to Be the Best in the World at Anything

Get Rich Education

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 25, 2024 56:19


Former NFL player, Broadway playwright, best-selling author and in-demand public speaker, Bo Eason, joins us to discuss the power of storytelling and achieving greatness. Bo emphasizes the importance of setting high standards, such as aiming to be the best, and seeking out mentors. He shares his upbringing, where his father instilled confidence by telling him he was the best, which influenced his success. Bo highlights the significance of personal, physical, and unapologetic storytelling to build trust and connect with others. Adopt the mindset of striving to be the best, not just settling for mediocrity. Make the Gold Medal the standard, not the end goal.  Develop and share your personal, compelling story to build trust and attract opportunities. Resources: Text "PERSONALSTORY" to 323-310-5504 to receive a free video course from Bo on uncovering your powerful personal story. Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/529 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching:GREmarketplace.com/Coach Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai    Keith Weinhold  0:02   Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, how do you become the best in the world at anything that you want to do in your life? Today's remarkable guest will tell you how so you can become the best version of yourself. He's become the best in more than one endeavor, including playing in the NFL. We'll also learn about the persuasive power of story and how you can find your very best personal story that you do have inside of you. It's a show rated PG for personal growth today on get rich education   Speaker 1  0:41   since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com   Corey Coates  1:27   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education. You Keith,   Keith Weinhold  1:43   welcome to GRE from Europe's Iberian peninsula to New Iberia, Louisiana and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold. As always, I'm grateful to have you along this week. This is get rich education. Most investing is left brained, but most decision making for your investment, choice is right brain. If you don't know the difference, left brain is about the numbers. It's analytical and logical. So left brain people, they're good at math and critical thinking and language as well. If you're more right brained, then you are more creative and emotional, and you tend to be good at recognizing faces and the attribute of diplomacy that's right brained. And it's a right brained kind of episode. Today you're going to learn how to be a performer and be the best at whatever you want to be. I mean, the best, whether that's as a real estate investor, business person, apartment building syndicator, or a real estate agent that's trying to sell homes, it'll even help you become the best parent, child, best spouse, best at basketball, best at table tennis. And you know, you are part of a really well educated and influential audience that we have here. Maybe you're trying to be the best physician or politician or even social media influencer or the best church minister that you can be. And in fact, as it turns out, people that are trying to raise money end up consulting today's guest quite a bit. And as you'll see, this guest really can tell a story. You'll learn that he has achieved elite success, even best in the world, success in a number of different areas. He's had like, three or four successful people's lives, yet he's the same guy. He's sort of like, in a sense, President Elect Donald Trump. Love him or hate him. Trump found success in real estate and then in media, with his show The Apprentice and then as the 45th and 47th president. Well, those disciplines there for Trump, they're somewhat related. Well, today's guest became the best in areas that aren't even related to each other at all, which is even more amazing. So therefore, maybe today it's really more of an Arnold Schwarzenegger parallel. I mean, Schwarzenegger, he was first the successful bodybuilder, winning Mr. Olympia, then he went on to become a successful actor. He married into the Kennedy family, and he became the California governor. Well, before I introduce you to today's guest, well, we are a wealth building show here, and as we talk about being the best in something, you know, I really want to ask you a question, Are you content with being middle class? You know, despite the way that inflation has ravaged it us, middle class life isn't all that bad. In fact, it's pretty good in a lot of ways, from the iPhone to the luxury of having a gym membership. I mean, that's just middle class stuff. Sheesh. Life is so good that when it's time to reset a password, people treat that as some sort of existential crisis. And you know, this is the time of year that even the middle class indulge in, say, pretty elaborate Christmas decorations. In fact, I increasingly notice that it's more and more common to hire a Christmas decorating contractor to decorate your real estate for you. They'll get ladders and a lift truck to hang lights in your tallest trees. That's something that the middle class does. Here's a new one. There's at least one mainstream, I guess, paper products company that now makes toilet paper with perforations that are wavy instead of being straight across, because it's easier to tear that way. So I think that you could make the case that American middle class life really isn't too bad, but in your life, if you want to be all that you can be, or anywhere close, you're not going to settle for something that's just better than not too bad. You can want more, and you should want more because you're capable of more, if for nothing else create the type of value for the world so that you can have more free time for yourself. I expect to have a terrific time and learn some things here where I am today in New Orleans for the 50th anniversary of the New Orleans Investment Conference, we've got speakers and exhibits covering real estate investing, economics, a lot of gold investing material at this conference Bitcoin and even stocks. And of course, I invited you, the listener here the past couple months, to come to the conference and meet in real life. As this is about to kick off, I wonder if I will find someone to go running with me. I always go running along the Mississippi River. Here in New Orleans, there is a trail paralleling the river right here, close to the event site. Yeah, I think I'm recovered from a mild back injury by now. Gosh, it was so weird. I hurt my back at the gym last month. And here's the thing. Somehow I heard it while doing my warm up exercises, of all things, sheesh. In fact, this is a triumvirate of fitness paradoxes here in doing this. Number one, warm ups are activities that you do before you work out to prevent hurting yourself, but I hurt myself in the warm up. Secondly, I never seem to injure myself while running steep, rocky trails or skiing down slopes outdoors, but indoors where the floor is level, that's the place where I seem to get injured. And then thirdly, the gym is where you go to improve your fitness, not lose fitness. So yes, that is the triumvirate of paradoxes there. Well, our guest, you know, he really knows the power of story, and just listen to him. I bet he'll tell a better story than hurting my back at the gym. Let's meet him.    Today, we have a guy with massive ambitions who I know is going to bring out the best in you during his lifetime, he's chased what it means to be world class, not just in one discipline, but in five different disciplines, and he's achieved a true level of greatness in all of them. He has played in the NFL for four seasons with Houston, then went on to become a San Francisco 49er, next, a super successful Broadway playwright, then an in demand public speaker, most recently, an eight time best selling author, and he has gone on to write screenplays for movie stars, so get ready to hear him talk about the one factor that's been the driving force behind his success in all of these disciplines. Hey, welcome to get rich education. Bo Eason.   Bo Eason  9:13   Keith, thanks for having me.   Keith Weinhold  9:14   Well, it's the first time that we have a former NFL player on the show, and Bo played the same position that my favorite football player of all time did, Ryan Dawkins, that is the safety position. But we're not here to discuss football so much as how you can build the architecture of success like Bo has and Bo your success is astounding, and our listeners hope that some of their virtual proximity to you rubs off on them today, I do too, and it's remarkable because you've reached the pinnacle of success in some of these disciplines that don't even seem to be related to each other at all. So what can you reveal here? Is there one common driver that led to them all?   Bo Eason  9:58   Man, you know what? That's. A great question, going back the way my dad woke us up as kids. So I'm the youngest of six kids, so I grew up on a ranch, on a farm in northern California. My dad was a cattle rancher, and I four older sisters and a brother who's a year older than me, so every morning he woke up all six of us to go do our chores, you know, on this ranch at five in the morning, and he would wake us up by rubbing our backs. He pulled back the covers. He'd rub our backs really hard, like, not easy, not like gentle, like dads of today, like this was a cowboy, you know, with dirty hands and rough hands. And he would rub our back and he would whisper in our ear and tell us that we were the best. And so for the first 18 years of my life, every morning he'd come into me in my brother's room. He'd wake up my brother in the same way he woke me up by rubbing his back and whispering his ear, you're the best. Get up, you're the best. And after you hear that for 18 years, my brother went off to college. I went off to college. My sisters all went off to college. And I always think back to those eight first 18 years, because when I would come home and visit our parents. So my brother got drafted. He was the first round pick of the New England Patriots. He was the quarterback for the New England Patriots took them to their first Super Bowl. So that best term worked out for him. And then I was a second round pick for the Houston Oilers, and got to play with them for several years. And this term, I always thought back to it, like, Why was my dad saying that? Because when we were growing up, when we were playing Little League, and we're playing sports, when we were kids, we actually weren't the best. But he wouldn't say that we were like, I would strike out every time in Little League, I was so bad at baseball, and every time he would yell at me through the chain link fence that I was the best, and my teammates are like, You got to be kidding me, Bo What is your dad even saying You're the worst? And he's telling you you're the best for most of our lives, the first half of our lives, it was a source of embarrassment to me and my brother and I remember going on a date one time, a double date with my brother. In fact, I couldn't even drive my brother could, and we went on a this double date with the thomasini sisters. So we were going, and my dad walks out to the car with us, and we're like, What the heck is my What's dad doing? Why is he coming out to the car with us? He came out there to tell us that we were leaders and that we were the best before a date. And I'm like, Dad, go in the house, right? And then finally, you know me and my brother, we weren't recruited as football players coming out of high school. Not one person, not one college recruited us, but we had these dreams of being pro football players, and at that time, 350 colleges played college football, but no one wrote us a letter. No one recruited us. So my brother went to a junior college, and then he ended up, after that, got a scholarship to the University of Illinois, and then became a first round pick. Well, I went to a school called UC Davis in Northern California, which was division two football and no scholarships. So basically, no one was on scholarship. There. You just walked on and you played football for fun. Well, that's where I went. And then, you know, cut to four years later, my brother's a first round pick. I'm a second round pick, and we always looked back from that point on, deciding, like Dad always embarrassed us, friends in front of our dates, in front of everybody. But then at that point, 21, 22 years old, we looked back, we said, Man, you know what? We just kind of surrendered to, what he saw in us, and we were the best. We were the best at our positions, and the only reason we were is because we had somebody who saw our greatness and pretty much spoke it into existence. Now, when you grow up like that, Keith, you think you assume that every other kid has grown up like that too, right? But that wasn't true, right? We thought it was true. You know, it turns out that the other guys we were playing with, the other guys who are our teammates, they did not grow up like that. So I would say that that principle was huge for me and my brother, just somebody who saw something in us that we couldn't see for ourselves, and he did it up to a point where we began to see it for ourselves. He just was very patient. And, you know, I find myself doing this with my kids. I have three kids, and they're all going to be d1 athletes, two of them are already, wow. Yeah, and it's because that's how I woke him up, too, like so I know that's kind of a simple story, but it really set the foundation for us, and here's how it did, Keith, it told me what was expected of us, even when we weren't the best. He was expecting us to live into what he saw, and we did, and I found my kids to do the same, like I was looking at my kids, and I was like, Man, are they going to be athletes like me and my brother are at that level, because that was their dreams, right? But I didn't know if they had what it took. As I woke them up every morning, I could see them starting to live into their potential or live into their birthright. So I think to start off with Keith, that was a principle that is a mainstay. It taught me not only what was expected of me, but what I could set the standard for other people, and then they would live on into that standard, been able to do that. So those couple of things were huge in my upbringing.   Keith Weinhold  16:02   Well, this is remarkable, and I think you're already giving the parents in our audience quite a few ideas. Bo, this phrase, you're the best kind of got indelibly baked into your being and who you are, your dad even chasing you around on a double date, reinforcing you're the best and you know, Bo, I think that a person can be simultaneously grateful for what they have yet at the same time strive for more, as often say here on the show and adopting an abundance mindset with wealth building. Don't live below your means, grow your means. Now, I was watching an NFL football game just this past weekend, and a commercial came on for the IBEW, the labor union, and Bo it struck me as so odd that a trainee at the IBEW smiled, and they were all gratified that they were part of the IBEW. And they said, this is like now I have my golden ticket to the middle class, which I mean, because being middle class isn't like altogether awful in the United States, but it just sounded like this was the be all and end all, and hey, now I have a guarantee of mediocrity in my life that struck me as so odd. I don't think their father was telling them you're the best like yours did.   Bo Eason  17:21   No, they definitely did not. I'm always shook by that too, where people will sometimes come to me and they go, Bo, I want to push back on being the best. I just want to, you know, be kind of a good player, kind of medium wealth. And I'm like, Well, if you want to push back on me, you should take that up with Mother Nature, because if you just go back to the day that we were conceived, you know, if we want to have a little refresh of course on the day we were conceived, you were going to find out that there was the odds of us even being born were 300 million to one, and we were the champion of that first race that we entered right like 300 million to one odds, you're the champion, and yet here we are, you and me number one. You know, the gold medalists of those odds, and now we're supposed to be born into a world and be mediocre. I don't think Mother Nature set it out like that. I don't think that's how it happened. I think the standard is the gold medal, not the silver medal. You know, it's the gold medal. Now, some people win silver medals. If they lose the gold that's fine, that's great, but the gold medal is the thing. And I think the minute we lower ourselves from that. We're just trying to give ourselves a soft landing, I think, and then we don't ask enough of our potential, which is, if you're following Mother Nature, your potential is 300 million to one odds, and you already won that gold medal. So what are you doing? You know? What are you doing? So, as I progressed, Keith, so I went from football, I played in the lake for five years, and I didn't know what I was going to do, right? So I just started again. I just said, so instead of being the best safety in the world, because that was my first declaration, I just said, I want to be the best safety in the world. That's it. So I was able to achieve that. And then when football was over, I did the same thing for playwriting and performing. I just said, I don't care. I know I don't have any experience in this, but I'm going to declare right now, and I draw it up, that I'm going to be the best stage performer of my time. So that principle has worked every time, but I had to use the term the best. And I don't know why. I guess it was just locked in my brain. But here's the next thing, the next principle that I think is important for the audience. And this goes for wealth building. This goes for whatever you want to build, whether it's your family or, you know, an apartment complex. It doesn't matter we're building stuff. And here's what I did the second. All around I said, I want to be the best stage performer, the best playwright of my time. So I didn't know how to do that. So I moved to New York City because I knew everybody did plays there. They did Broadway, they did off Broadway. And I asked everybody in my class, who's the best at this this was in 1990 who is the best at this stage performance. And every kid in my class, and there were kids I was a little older because I was playing football, I said, Where is the best stage performer of our time? Who is it? And they all said, Al Pacino. And I said, Cool. Where is he? And they said, Well, I don't know where he is. He's on a movie set somewhere, or, you know, rehearsing for a theater show. And I said, I want to know him. I want to meet him, because only the best can tell me how to be the best. Only the best can tell me how to take his mantle of being the best stage performer. Wow, most people don't think that, or say that. You said Brian Dawkins, me too. I'm like, who's the best safety in the world? Let me go talk to that dude, because that dude knows what, like Ronnie. Lott, was that for me? Jack Tatum, Ronnie. Lott, those kind of guys I ended up playing with. Ronnie. Lott, you know you end up playing with these guys. You know the guys you're looking up to? Well, within a week of me asking these kids in my class, where is Al Pacino? I'm having dinner with Al Pacino, in New York City and I go, Dude, what do I do? What do I do? You tell me, I'll do it. And he goes, Okay, Bo, I'll draw it up for you. We'll draw it up. You know what that's going to take, but that's going to take you 15 years, and I go, perfect. That's my kind of timeline. I'm good like that, you know? And he goes, Okay, so he drew it up and I did what he said. He told me who to work with. Basically, he's telling me to put my butt on a stage. More than any other person can put their butt on a stage. So I go, I can control that, that I know how to control, because that's what I did. As far as training to be the best safety. I wasn't the best safety, but as the years went by, guess what? I passed up everybody who was ahead of me. You know, you're the top safety in the league. Well, same thing for being on Broadway, he told me what to do. I did exactly what he told me to do. And 15 years later, I am opening a play in New York City that I wrote that I'm the only guy in and I swear I was so nervous before opening night to run out and look Keith I had played against the biggest and baddest dudes on the planet. You know, I wasn't as scared as going out on a stage to face those dudes. I would rather face refrigerator Perry or Walter Payton than going out on a Broadway stage. And I went out on starting the play, I am having an out of body experience because I'm the only one. I'm talking to the audience. The New York critics are in the house. Everybody's in there. And I make eye contact with a guy right on the row. He's sitting right on the aisle. It's Al Pacino. I had seen him in 15 years. He told me what to do. I did what he said. He's in my play, I wrote, and I'm the only guy, Al Pacino, the best stage performer of all time, is sitting right there on the aisle. That's so cool. And he's nodding his head. He's like, Yeah, I'm doing you did it. And so a you have to have a declaration, and that declaration has to be the best. So the declaration of being the best safety, being the best playwright, being the best stage performer, those things actually come true because you have a declaration which you're living into existence instead of following some to do list, right? I did the same thing for playwriting. I did the same thing with Al Pacino, and that career really set me off because I performed that play 17 years. One play 17 years it immediately gets bought by Castle Rock pictures as a movie. Frank Darabont bought the play as a movie. And I don't know if you know who Frank Darabont is, but he's the guy who wrote and directed the Shawshank Redemption, The Green Mile Saving Private Ryan collateral. He's the guy who his team's TV show he created is The Walking Dead. So this dude was nominated for 12 Academy Awards for writing and directing. He bought my play to produce it for him, and so he hired me, who's never written a screenplay, to write the screenplay for him. This dude has been nominated for 12 Academy Awards for lighting, and he hires me. I go, Dude, don't hire me because I've never written a screenplay. I don't understand it. I don't get it. I'm not a great speller. In fact, I do. Don't even have a computer. And he goes, I don't care about that. I think you can tell the story. Yeah. And I go, okay, so he was hiring me basically based on my guts or my heart, and we did that. So he bought that. I wrote the screenplay for him. Then Leonardi DiCaprio and Toby McGuire come to the play. They come running backstage, they say, Bo, we want you to write a movie for us. And I go, You know what, you guys, I don't write movies. They go, we pay a lot of money for our screenwriters. We think you can do it. And I go, Yeah, based on that money, I think I can do it too. And so the crazy part about this whole thing is it all falls back to this ability to share myself, to tell a story, to tell a story that has physicality to it, that has heart to it, the ability to do that has really given me all these occupations. And then people came to me like business owners from Wall Street. They would come to the play like with their wife, because their wife wanted to go to the theater and they were watching my play. Well, they would come backstage, Keith, and they would say, Hey, man, I want you to bring this to my fortune 500 company. And I'm like, wait, what do you mean? What do you I don't this is a play. I don't take this to Fortune 500 companies. This play, you got to come to the theater. They go, No, we don't want to. I want our sales force. I want our leadership executives to learn to do what you do on stage. I was like, what? I couldn't believe it. Me and my wife, we're like, going, I don't understand what you read. They said it's the funniest thing, because typically, when you're on Broadway, the people who come backstage to see you, they shake your hand, or they get you autograph and they say, Wow, you're a terrific performer. Or what great writing. That's what they usually say, right? Not my play. They come backstage and they don't say, I'm great. This is what they say, Can you teach my people to do what you just did? Yeah, on stage, we're like, of course, because I was taught I could retrace my steps. And I can teach business people, leaders, doesn't matter the business coaches, whatever I can teach them to express themselves in front of other people, which then makes them wealthy, because in the end, I learned Keith that whoever tells the best story wins.   Keith Weinhold  27:33   Yeah, I want to get to the power of story after the break before we do that when one knows that the best that word is out there for them, I think oftentimes they're stricken with fear. Fear is a great obstacle. How do you overcome the fear from listening to you? It seems to me that your mechanism for coping with fear and becoming the best is facing it, getting in there and getting the reps.   Speaker 2  28:00   Yeah, 100% there's a great quote, the world was not created by great men, the world was created by a demanding situation where great men then rose. So we don't know our greatness until we're faced with a demanding situation. So if you're nine, you have no obstacles in your life, you're like, Wow, this is really fun. I'm living on a farm. There's pals, there's horses. What a nice life. And then Bo created his own problem. He created a declaration that said, I want to be the best safety in the world. Well, right then, right when I got creative. Now, Bo's life became a demanding situation where I had to grow strong and I had to eat right, I had to exercise, I had to run faster than anybody else. So I created all these demanding situations for my life. But that's the only way to reveal character. No NFL team is drafting anybody who doesn't have a characteristic that makes you a successful NFL player, and the only way to get those characteristics is to lose is to get your butt kicked, is to face your opposing players that's putting yourself in a demanding situation. So us, you know, as successful guys and successful gals, we kind of get satisfied and so that we forget to keep putting ourselves in demanding situations. That's where the fear comes in. Because once you're in a demanding situation, you get scared. You're like, oh, do I have what it takes to do this? And then you discover by going forward that you actually do. You do have what it takes, and fear is like a made up thing, and you start to realize that you're the creator of your own fear. So look, when I wrote the play in New York, I had never written anything in my life. Like I said, I couldn't spell good. I didn't have a computer, but here's what I did have. I had the ability, because I already did this in my life. I knew how to put myself in a demanding situation and then take a step forward. I knew how to do that based on my football career. I knew it so the principles of being the best safety in the world and being the best playwright in the world are the exact same principles. You have to have the declaration. It has to be at a standard that's way out of your comfort zone that puts you in that demanding situation. Then you have to start running the miles. Then you have to hire an expert coach that sees you clearly, and it is a critical thinker like can see you and go, Bo, stop that. Do that. Stop doing that. And do that just like a nutritionist. Hey, I want to live longer. I want to be there for my daughters when they walk down the aisle. Okay, then you better stop eating this and start eating that. You have to have these experts in your life to fulfill on your birthright of being the best. So now you just break your life down. I just broke my life down like five different times because I enter a new era, like screenplays. How am I going to write a screenplay? I don't know how. I don't understand, but here's what I do. Know how to do. I know how to work. I know how to be the best. Those principles are pretty much the same as safety and playwright. So the guy who buys my play to hire me as a screenplay writer is the greatest screenwriter in Hollywood. So he's the guy paying me, he's the guy coaching me, he's the guy looking over my shoulder going, Bo Don't say that. Say this, say less, do this. Those are just first three principles. We're talking about the best. The standard has to be sky high. Otherwise it's not going to be demanding. It's not going to require enough of your humanity to fulfill on yourself. So it's got to be there. Then you've got to take the time to run the miles to do this thing, and you cut your time in half, or less than a half, by having somebody who is an expert mentor or an expert coach. A guy like Al Pacino, a guy like Frank Darabont who just goes, Bo do this. Don't do that. A guy like Ronnie Lott, both don't do that, do this. And I just do what they say, because, guess what, they're the best in the world at what they do. You guys, those principles, I found I just keep repeating them over and over again. Now a lot of you might be saying, Bo, that's a little much for me, because I don't know Al Pacino or I don't know Ronnie Lott, and I don't know Frank darabonda. You guys, I didn't know him either. I didn't know him either, but I do know this the best in their field, whoever that is, don't say you want to be the wealthiest person on the planet. Well, the wealthiest person on the planet is more available than you think. Guess why? Because everyone thinks they're too busy and they don't ask of their time. You ask of their time. No one's asking of Al Pacino's time. Guess why? Because they don't want what he has. They want to be famous. I wasn't interested in fame. They want to get an agent in Hollywood. I wasn't interested in that. I was interested in what Al Pacino had, which was he was the best stage performer of his time. That they're willing to tell you, because they know if you're asking that question, they want to be involved with you.   Keith Weinhold  33:44   right, because you dared to ask. And they can probably perceive your ambition, and people can sense that, and they love that, and it sure can be scary to say, but fear should be your guide. You should follow your fear. We all know that that's where the growth is. It's like the gap in the game. It's been said that the gap between where we are and where we want to be lies our greatest opportunity for growth. We're talking with former NFL player Bo Eason about being the best. We're going to come back and talk about the power of story. Next. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get rich education.    Oh, geez, the initial average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings, so your bank is getting rich off of you. You've got to earn way more, or else you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk, your cash generates up to a 10% return and compounds year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25k you keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back. Their decade plus track record proves they've always paid their. Investors 100% in full and on time. And you know how I'd know, because I'm an investor in this myself, earn 10% like me and GRE listeners are. Text FAMILY to 66866, to learn about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text, FAMILY to 66866.    hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine at Ridge lending group NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties, they help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start Now while it's on your mind at Ridge lendinggroup.com that's Ridge lendinggroup.com   Matt Bowles  36:08   Hey everybody. This is Matt Bowles from Maverick investor group you're listening to get rich education with Keith Weinhold and don't quit your Daydream.   Keith Weinhold  36:27   Welcome back to get rich education. We're on a mindset journey today to help you level up, be a better person and even be the best.Talking with former NFL football player Bo Eason, and Bo, you're such a powerful storyteller, and I think it's a really important time to be a powerful storyteller. Trust in institutions seems to be at an all time low, from the government to the media. This is partly why the rise of influencer culture has become a thing. So tell us about how a powerful personal story can build instant trust and connection in seconds. Even when it seems like trust is at an all time low.   Bo Eason  37:07   it is at an all time low. That's what Gallup does a poll every year on trust. The question they ask is, do you trust your neighbor? And it's at its lowest it's ever been. They started this in 1972 but it's down to single digits. This is your neighbor. This isn't somebody across the street. This is this isn't somebody in the next town or the next state you know, or the next country. This person you share a backyard fence with.   Keith Weinhold  37:34   right? Like you're afraid to ask them to check for packages on your front porch when you're on a vacation or something. Yeah, the trust   Bo Eason  37:41   below. But everybody gets depressed by the statistic. I get excited about it because there is one group of us that can restore trust. It is the storyteller. It's not just the storyteller, you guys, it's the person who can share themselves personal story, not just a story, although stories, you know, work, and they've always worked for 1000s of years, but personal stories move the dial the most. Give you the most Trust, the most credibility. Personal stories like if I say to you a sentence like this, when I was nine years old, I had this dream, so I decided to draw up a 20 year plan to achieve my dream. If I tell you a sentence like that, you and me, even though it's a simple sentence, right? It's personal to me. Well, personal equals universal. Whenever you're telling a personal story, it affects your audience that much more, because your audience locates themselves inside of your story. That is the science of storytelling, and that's why you earn trust by sharing yourself personally. Now most people don't want to do that. They push back, especially business people, especially left brain, analytical type people, they say to me, Bo I'm not going to share myself, because who cares about my story? And I say everybody, you're just telling the wrong story. You have to tell it very personal and very specific to you, and it has to be a pain point. It has to be a low point in your life. That's where you start the story, because if you start at the top, there's no place to go with story. It's like, think of rocky everybody. Sylvester Stallone was a very smart guy. He was an unemployed actor, and he said, I'm going to employ myself for the rest of my life. Guess how he plays the role of Rocky? He writes the role of Rocky. Who does he put in front of him, Apollo Creed, the greatest heavyweight champion in the world, a character named after a god that's called great storytelling. He put Mount Everest in front of him. And if you notice, that's what he's always done every movie he writes. He's given himself a career because he puts himself at the base of Mount Everest every time. Well, that's where I want you to put yourself. What is your story? Where did you get rejected? It's always at a younger age. You know, Michael Jordan's story is the same as Tom Brady's story is the same story that I have, which is, we all were rejected in high school. We all were told we weren't good enough to play a high school sport. So what did we become the best in our fields? That's what always happens. That's always the story of an elite athlete. So I want you guys sharing yourselves with these stories, and these stories are kind of the ones you kind of don't want to tell because they reveal certain things about you that are kind of humiliating. But humility is the best connective tissue that us human beings have. Isn't that weird? Embarrassment is a great connective tissue success. Isn't that connective? Isn't that weird?   Keith Weinhold  40:58   Yeah, I mean, embarrassment is self deprecating. Most people like that, and everyone can relate to failing.   Bo Eason  41:05   Yep, there's three rules I live by when it comes to storytelling. You guys knew. Number one, it's got to be personal. It's got to be personal. The more personal, the richer you are. It's got to be personal. Guys, I've talked you into this, if I haven't already. Number two, you guys, if you're thinking about wealth, I would think about it in those terms right now. Secondly, it's got to be physical. Stories are physical living things, living, breathing, human things. You can't tell a story like a boring people tell stories they Well, when I grew up, I was poor, and then I walked over to the store, they wouldn't let me have a candy bar. It's boring, it's stupid. It is not physical. You have to embody the story with your physicality. You have to become your story, you guys. I know this might sound crazy to you, but the more physical you are in your life. Now, listen to me, the more physical you are in your life, the more money you make. People don't trust what comes out of anybody else's mouth anymore. They don't trust it. They trust your body 100% of the time. I wish you could see my body right now, because it is alive, and you could probably feel it even though I'm you can just hear my voice. You can hear the physicality of the residents of my voice. Now, the more physical you are in your life, the richer you are, and that's across the board. I don't care if you're a ballet dancer, I don't care if your speaker. I don't care what your occupation is. If you are physical and unapologetic about your physicality, then you're going to make a lot of money. But if you're walking around on eggshells, people know it. If you're walking around apologizing for your masculinity or your femininity, and you're like, you know, you're just half stepping everything. You see people like this all the time. What do you do with them? You dismiss them. But when somebody walks in and you turn your head, you know to look. You heard somebody come in behind you, you turn and look, why? Because they have a presence and they're unapologetic. That is a learned trait, or I should say it's relearning human trait. I've been trained by the greatest movement coach in the world, you guys. The only reason I was trained by him 17 years I was trained by him because every time I saw somebody acknowledge when they won the Academy Award an actor, they would acknowledge this guy. And I go, who the hell this guy that everyone keeps acknowledging keeps thanking for their Academy Award for some performance. I want to know what this guy's doing. I want to know what he's doing with these performers. And he told me where I went and met him. He goes, No one has ever won an award for what they said. No one it's what they did physically. That's how you win. And he's the guy who taught me well. So you guys, number one, the story has got to be personal. Number two, the story has got to be physical, unapologetic. It's so attractive when this happens. That's what I train people to do, because that's what I was trained to do. And then when all these CEOs and stuff started coming to the play, that's what they wanted, that now, you guys, they didn't know to ask me that. They just said, Can you teach my people to do what you do on stage? I go, of course, because I was taught the thing they wanted most was they wanted people to trust their sales people or their leadership team. They wanted all their employees, including them, to be physical in the world, because that is powerful. And you're going to watch this. You can watch this in elections. You can watch this in politicians. The reason they hide behind those podiums is their body betrays them. Their body betrays them. If I ever got hired to coach them, which I've always turned them down, I would put them out in the open like an animal so we can see their whole body, because that we can trust but we don't trust somebody standing behind a podium. Very critical.   Keith Weinhold  45:23   Well, there's a lot there. Yes, so much is conveyed through body language. People like decisiveness and commitment. You talk about how to make a story personal. When you had mentioned when you were nine years old, you laid out a 20 year plan for your life. When you said that me as a listener, that just makes me naturally want to lean in and ask a question about that and let you go on, for example. But when you talk about how stories need to be made personal, why don't we wrap up on how does storytelling work in business? Then say that a real estate investor is trying to attract co investors to his apartment building deal. For example, how would you use story there?   Bo Eason  46:07   Oh, yeah, great question. So many of my clients are people that raise money, whether it's for profit or non profit. They are in the business of building a company, and so they're always asking for money. Well, there's a guy used to run a studio in Hollywood, I think it was Warner Brothers, and he did an experiment. He was building a studio. So he needed millions and millions of dollars, so he went to all his rich friends, and he put a contract out in front of them. One contract only had numbers and percentages and columns written on it. Here's how much you'll invest. Tell us how much you'll make after five years all that stuff. The other contract was the same deal, no numbers, no monies, no percentages, only story, a story of belonging, a story of making a difference. He says, 100% choose the story contract, not the numbers, purpose. There's nothing. There's nothing to connect to. Yeah, I work in the finance world a lot. You guys, people, you know, high wealth, they always want to talk about numbers. And I'm like, rich people are all right brain. You know that? So every billionaire, every millionaire in the world, is right brain, not left right their right brain. But the people managing their money or raising their money are left brain. So they want to talk about numbers. And I'm saying, you guys, you can't talk about numbers, because rich people don't know what you're talking about. Rich people want to belong. They want to see themselves inside the business that you're building. So you better have a hell of a story, and that best story wins no matter what, Best Story wins. If you and me are both building a skyscraper in New York City. If I got a better story than you, guess what skyscrapers gonna get built? Mine. That's got nothing to do with money, because money is everywhere. Money's like air. It's more abundant than air and water. There's money everywhere. But what are rich people attracted to story? Why do you think they call it show business? Show, I'm the show, you're the show. You're the storyteller. The Business People bring the money to the show so rich people don't know how to make movies, they don't know how to tell stories, but they want to give you the money so that you can tell yours. Of course, that's how this thing works. That's why show and business always go together. There's a great saying rich men, when they sit down to dinner, they speak of art. When artists sit down to dinner, they speak of money. Artists sit down to dinner, they speak of money. When finance people sit down to dinner, they speak of art. So they're completing one another. You've got to be an artist. You've got to be able to tell your story, because their dreams and their big bank accounts relying on your vision of what you're going to build that makes you an artist, that makes you here go build what you've got to build here. I want to be a part of it.   Keith Weinhold  49:28   Yeah, I've never heard that before that's remarkable in using story to connect with others, something that seems to be bleeding and so badly needed for connectivity today. Well, Bo this has been great, talking about the best, talking about the power of story. You do so many things to help people in their own growth journey and to expand their own mindset. Tell us about your resource for that.   Bo Eason  49:56   You know what? Because the first thing that when I say, look. Got to find your personal story. Most people go, I don't have one. Well, that's just not true. Everybody has a story. I've worked with 1000s of people, and everyone's got a great, dramatic story. They just don't know it. So I'll send you a free story guide. It's a video course. It's going to give you some prompts, and we're going to find your powerful, personal signature story, so you can begin to use it today. So all you got to do is text me. So text PERSONAL STORY, the word PERSONAL STORY, one word personal story. Text that to this number, 323-310-5504. that's text. Personal story. One word, personal story, to 323-310-5504, text me that, and I will automatically send you a story guide. To start to uncover this thing,you'll start to realize, Wow, I do have a cool story that I can begin to tell whether I'm in the Oval Office or whether I'm in front of 1500 people at us in a speech, you can open with your personal story. It works and it attracts people to you. If I was in your guys shoes, you're interested in building wealth. Me too. If I'm building wealth, guess what? I'm beginning with personal story, and then I just get to go right to the top, because people are only interested in other people who have a vision bigger than the people have for themselves. And that's you. That's you. And your personal story, you have a vision that is bigger than the people have for themselves. If you can do that, guess what? People got to buy into that, they got to invest in, that they got to be around that. They got to marry that.   Keith Weinhold  51:47   Oh, you're so right. I really think this is going to help a lot of our listeners. You the listener, you probably have several good stories inside you, and Bo can really help bring them out, who have the benefit of seeing him on video, he's a really powerful speaker. I've had that same benefit of seeing him on video. You've only listened to him so far. Check out his resource if you think you can benefit from it. Bo, he said, It's surely been valuable. Thanks so much for coming on to the show.   Bo Eason  52:15   Keith, thanks for having me.   Keith Weinhold  52:23   Oh, such sharp insights from a motivating guy, Bo Eason, this week. And hey, if you have kids, are you going to wake them up by hard, rubbing their back in the morning and telling them you're the best? Well, it seemed to work for a little review about what you learned. Bo talked about how the standard is the gold medal, not the end goal, but that the gold medal is actually the standard. That's his mindset. So Bo made sure he met Al Pacino. When they got dinner, he found out that Pacino was the best, so he sought out the best and made sure to get around him. And a lot of people are scared to do that or even ask about the best. And, you know, I just can't help but think that that's like my life experience with women. In high school, I was just so shy and deathly afraid to ask anyone out. But in college and beyond, you know, sometimes I would ask out the most attractive woman, and they would usually say no, but, you know, I can't believe some of them actually would say yes. And see, the more that you do this, the more confident you get. And women like confidence, and can feel that coming from you. And then, so therefore your fear dissipates and it becomes easier to overcome. You have a unique fingerprint in this world, and you yourself. You do have an interesting story. I just know that you have it in you, but the chances are you've never even told your highest and best story to one other human being on this earth, not even once, and perhaps I haven't either. Bo said his stories need to be personal, physical and unapologetic, and his video, course, helps you find your personal story. And if you didn't catch that again, you can get it by texting one word PERSONALSTORY to 323-310-5504.    Coming up in future weeks here on the show, it's probably Yeah, more left brain strategic real estate investing content than right brained emotional content like today's show. But one right brain topic coming up on the show that I want to share with you. I want to tell you why, as a society, we hate Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, because he's wealthy. But yet, society does not dislike wealthy singers like Olivia Rodrigo, Taylor Swift and Dua Lipa. We love them even though they're wealthy. We. Don't resent an actor like Robert Downey, Jr for making $600 million as an actor in the Marvel Cinematic Universe. So it's all about why we vilify successful entrepreneurs for their wealth, including landlords, yet somehow we glorify successful actors, athletes and entertainers for being wealthy. It's a case study that I've been working on. I shared some of it with our newsletter readers last week, and I'll have more on that here on the show. Signing off from the Grand New Orleans investment conference, the nation's longest running investing conference. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.   Speaker 3  55:43   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively   Keith Weinhold  56:03   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building get rich education.com.  

Get Rich Education
528: Real Estate is Up 490% Over the Last 40 Years

Get Rich Education

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 18, 2024 45:23


Keith discusses trends in the housing market, including the rising average age of first-time homebuyers and the mix of markets seeing price increases versus declines. He analyzes the potential impact of the incoming presidential administration's policies on real estate, particularly around inflation and interest rates. He is joined by Investor, Co-Founder and CEO of Family Freedom Investments, Dani Lynn Robison to highlight high-yield investment opportunities available, including up to 10% returns. Home prices have fallen in six US cities. The average age of a first time homebuyer rose to an astounding 38 years old. Discover the top 10 states with the highest home price appreciation over the last 40 years. The Trump Effect. To learn more about Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866. Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/528 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching:GREmarketplace.com/Coach Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai  Keith Weinhold  0:01   Welcome to GRE I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, home prices have fallen in six US cities. The average age of a first time home buyer soars to an astounding 38 years old. Then we take the long view breaking down how real estate is up a jaw dropping 490% since 1984 the Trump effect on real estate, then how you can earn an eight to 10% cash on cash return, hassle free. All today on Get Rich Education.   Speaker 1  0:36   since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com   Corey Coates  1:21   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  1:38   Welcome to GRE from St Louis, Missouri, to say Luis, Obispo, California, and across 188 nations worldwide, even Uzbekistan. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are inside. Get rich education every week. It's the show where I pretend that I'm not wearing pajama pants while here on the microphone. Hey, if you want to get rich, then focus on one thing. If you're already there and want to stay rich, then that's the point in which you want to diversify, because then you're already living your Daydream and you don't want to lose it. We'll talk about President elect Trump later in this week's show, and what it means for the future of the real estate market.   Donald Trump  2:20   Thank you verymuch. So this outfit you know is when they when he called us all garbage. How stupid. What a stupid word. That blows deplorable away. Don't you think.   Keith Weinhold  2:21   well, our content will surely be more substantive than that funny piece I expect to host Donald Trump here on the show for you in the future. After all, let's not forget, before politics, he was most known as a real estate investor, but he's going to be busy for the next four years, so it could be a while until you see him here, before we get to the Trump effect. Last week, the NAR released their annual report. It's called the profile of buyers and sellers. My gosh, what a surprise when it revealed that the average age of a first time homebuyer rose to an astounding 38 years old. 38 I mean, we're not talking about a person that's like, severely underemployed or something. We're talking about the average here. So for many, I mean, they are still a renter into their 40s. That is common now. I mean, at this rate, pretty soon, are Americans going to become homeowners once they hit retirement? I mean, my gosh, is that where we're headed? Or when one looks at their rites of passage, the milestones in their lives, will one achieve grand parenthood before buying a first home? Where are we going here? Not only is 38 years old, the all time high, as you might have expected, but that is up from age 35 just last year, amazing. And like I've discussed before, of course, the major reason that that age is up is due to lower affordability, and that's from higher prices and higher interest rates. The housing shortage is another factor here too. And all right, if that's not enough, the average age of us homebuyers, okay, this is just overall homebuyers, first timers and everyone else. That was 49 last year, and this spiked up to 56 this year. 56 and now back to first time homebuyers, the average income has also hit an all time high, $97,000 that is the average income of a first time homebuyer now. So what's important to keep in mind here is people are going to have to rent longer they're already. Renting longer. And some will choose to rent longer as a preference, and for others, they must rent longer. You can be the one to provide them with this rental housing, not the big hedge funds doing it, not private equity doing it. Invest in real estate. These trends mean higher occupancy rates and upward pressure on the rent amounts that you're going to be able to charge over time. I mean, this is demand, demand, demand for rental housing. They wish that they could buy that $300,000 starter home in the Midwest in southeast, but they have a hard time affording the down payments and qualifying for the loan they're after so you can rent it to them and be a profiteer longer. However, right now, there are six US cities where home prices are falling and now these are pretty mild corrections, but let's see if you can guess what the top reason for this is the number one reason about why these prices are falling among the nation's 50 largest metros. These are the six cities that have seen price corrections. New Orleans leads the way down the most down 4% Austin, Texas is also down almost 4% San Antonio down 2.7%, Tampa, Florida down one half of 1% Jacksonville down three tenths of 1% and then finally, Dallas, Texas, also down three tenths of 1% and in fact, I am visiting three of those six cities during a 10 day stretch that I'm on right here, right now. Over the weekend, I was in San Antonio, Texas. Today, the mobile GRE studio is in effect again, as I'm bringing you today's show from here in Austin, Texas, where I'm spending four days, and then I'll be in New Orleans in two days here. Well, the top reason for these falling home prices is in a word, supply. In fact, it's an oversupply in a lot of these six cities. And again, those six are New Orleans, Austin, San Antonio, Tampa, Jacksonville and Dallas. In fact, here in Austin, they are a, basically a national leader in over supply, they simply overbuilt, and it's going to take some time to absorb all that they've built. In fact, due to overbuilding, you've even got rents falling here in Austin, and I may look at some vacant apartments while I'm here to get the temperature of the market. Now, for some context, understand, though, that I spotlighted six falling markets out of the 50. All right, well, what about the other ones? Yes, that indeed means that 44, of America's 50 largest metros have seen year over year price increases, and one big reason for that is that many metros have housing shortages. Shortages are the norm, and by the way, all these figures are per the Zillow home index. In fact, a number of markets are up over 4% 5% 6% year over year, and the leaders all have seven to 8% year over year. Home price appreciation, they are San Jose, Hartford, New York City and Providence and a lot of the appreciation leaders are, yep, under supply, the opposite of what I'm seeing here in Austin.    Now, before I get to the headline of this week's episode, how national home prices were up a breathtaking 490% over the last 40 years. Let's talk about the Trump effect. It's still two months before Donald John Trump will be sworn in as a 47th president of the United States, and like macroeconomist Richard Duncan and I touched on on last week's show, Trump loves tariffs. Everyone knows that, and a tariff is like a tax on imported goods. Now follow along here. Higher tariffs mean then higher consumer prices, because the company or manufacturer has to pass that cost along to you. Higher prices means inflation. Higher inflation means that the Fed tends to keep interest rates higher longer in order to combat that inflation. So a Trump presidency means higher inflation in interest rates. Again, yes, at least those two things are correlated. And now think this through. Do you sense some cognitive dissonance here, under Trump's first term, back from 2017 to 2021 he wanted lower interest rates, and Trump was like highly vocal about how he wanted Jerome Powell to keep rates low in order to keep the economy healthy so the higher rates that Trump Tariffs are expected to bring then versus the lower rates that Trump wants is dissonant, incongruent, not in harmony. Bitcoin surged on the news of a second Trump presidency, because Trump is pro crypto. No see treasury yields, they also spiked upon the Trump presidency news just two weeks ago, I explained here on the show why higher inflation means higher treasury yields, which means higher mortgage rates. And it turned out that that was quite a timely explanation. The Trump election can mean a lower tax environment. We are hopeful that Trump will extend bonus depreciation, a really nice tax break for real estate investors. We could see some federal lands repurposed for housing construction. Trump said that he wanted to do that in order to add more housing supply. And no, don't worry. I don't think they're going to shut down and pave over Yellowstone and plug Old Faithful Geyser or anything like that. Okay, there's a lot of federal land that's, I guess, less remarkable, land that's being grazed on, and land suitable for more housing. Look for more move to loosen up zoning and regulation, and that's something where you'll find bipartisan agreement we've got to build to address the housing crisis. I mean, Trump has actually called zoning a killer, like he used that phrase you might see Trump extend the opportunity Zone program as well. The result could be more apartment construction in some of these blighted or low income urban areas, no matter what, and no matter who our president would have been. I mean, you're still gonna see housing supplies struggle to keep up with demand, because you just can't build fast enough. And you know something here, you never really know the future. People always want to speculate about the future that can be worth talking about. And you know that makes people think that they have the answer, but they're often wrong about one thing leading to the other, like how tariffs will end up meaning higher mortgage rates. I mean, you just don't know that for sure. Policies can change. Promises might not get followed up on, Black Swans can interject, and interest rates are one thing that are just wildly difficult to predict. And if you ever want to make another person look wrong, like if you desire to do that, here's all you need to do, ask them where interest rates are going to go in the future, and make them put that in writing. Okay, that is a guaranteed way to make somebody wrong. So everyone wants to know the future, but you've got to think through this in terms of probabilities and not certainties.    Now here's something encouraging, California voters, they shot down rent control expansion, though you might live in California, we are not exactly passionate about investing in California property for pretty well documented reasons, but sometimes things that start in New York and California in those particular states, they can expand to the nation. So it's worth paying attention to some of these things, and California voters resoundly rejected what is known as Proposition 33 rent control expansion. Almost 62% voted no on that. So you've got bipartisan alignment on how rent control backfires on renters in this was the third time in six years that California voters shot down rent control expansion. Great. That is great because rent control, it's not good for you, the investor, long term. It's not even good for the tenant, and it's certainly not good for the community either. I mean, they are collectivist state price controls.    Well, let's look at another place where prices are not being controlled for sure, and that is the fact that overall, US home prices have appreciated a whopping 490% since 1984 Yes, 490% over the last 40 years, therefore almost a 5x price increase. Let's break this down, and then I'll tell you what it means for the future too. This is the shift in US home prices from August 1984 to August 2024 so therefore it starts from mid Reagan presidency, when the median home price was $81,000 at that time. Okay, so this is our starting point, 1984 that's the year Ghostbusters hit movie theaters. Kareem Abdul Jabbar broke the all time NBA scoring record. And shows that debuted on television that year were Miami, Vice night, court, punky, Brewster. Are Charles in Charge? Have you heard of these shows? Another TV oh boy, another TV show that debuted in 1984 Well, Chase, are you ready for this? Let me give you a hint, Temple University. And how about jello? Pudding pops? Yes, I'm talking about the Cosby Show, which just feels kind of different to talk about anymore, ever since Bill Cosby's illicit misconduct there. And no, we are not going to play a snippet of the Cosby Show theme music. Please don't play it. You know, we totally do something like that here, but we're not this time. Okay? Well, with home prices surging and astounding 490% since that year, 1984 Okay, let's break down the areas that have appreciated the most and least and see what that means. And you might remember that in our newsletter, I sent you this map that shows the level of each individual state's 40 year price search. Oh, this is great. It's just the best real estate map I've seen in a while. What it shows is that coastal states are where home prices have risen the most. In general, the top 10 in appreciation in order are Washington State up 810% yes, that's more than 8x in the last 40 years. The next highest home appreciation over the last four decades in order is Oregon, Rhode Island, California, and then it's Hawaii, Montana, Massachusetts, Maine, Idaho. And 10th is Utah, all right. Well, why have coastal states had this higher real estate run up over time? Well, it's where building constraints exist that limits the housing supply. That's both geographic constraints, like, for example, the ocean's edge literally limits build space there. Well, the coasts are also where you tend to have more building regulation. Coasts are where incomes have risen the most those residents can afford more for housing. So home prices are then higher. I mean, just look at the leader Washington state. That's where you've got the headquarters for Amazon, Microsoft, Costco, Boeing, Starbucks, Expedia and more. They're all there now, taxes, though, they do tend to be highest in coastal states as well, so you're paying more for property, and you're also paying more in all types of taxes in a lot of cases. And as we know, rental properties usually don't work as well on the coasts, coastal rents haven't risen as much as home prices, and these places, they tend to have those laws and regulations that often favor tenants over landlords. And if you're looking at the map here like I am, you're going to note that some Rocky Mountain states have flexed their appreciation muscles as well. Now, Tennessee and the Texas triangle, they kind of decided to join the appreciation party fashionably late, as you look over 40 years. Yes, Tennessee and Texas, they really only started their big appreciation climb about a decade ago. All right, so those are some of the big winners every year since Punky Brewster debuted on television. Well, with today's rise of remote work and lower home affordability, the nation's interior, that's what looks increasingly desirable for property ownership the Midwest, the Great Plains, parts of the south and parts of the inland northeast. That makes these areas look like comparative deals where prices haven't wildly run up over the decades. And though you hear about return to Office policies, because a few major companies announce these return to Office policies. I mean, remote work is still up fully 15% year over year, and housing preferences are shifting as employees look to suburban Metro outskirts for more affordable homes so they're freed from the need to factor in these lengthy commutes in their lives like they had to previously. Now, among states that don't have strong in migration, one that could really shine is a place like Ohio. Ohio has appreciated less than most states still at 334% over the past four decades. Again, 490% is The National number. Ohio boasts tons of diverse industry, a low cost of living. They've got the seventh highest population in the nation. They have a stable population count for rental property owners. It has strong laws favoring landlords and Ohio. Is just a day's drive from half of North America's population. All right, so a smart listener like you is probably asking yourself a question right now, like, Okay, how does this 40 year stretches 490% rise in national home prices compare to inflation, and how does it compare to incomes? Over this time there's been 201% overall inflation and us, median household incomes have risen 260% and yeah, that 201% inflation number is suspect, just like most any inflation figure is inflation could certainly be higher than that, because most inflation measures likely understate the true diminished purchasing power of your dollar, and see the 490% rise. Although it sounds like a staggering number, and it still kind of is. It's also like, well, of course, it takes almost five times as many dollars to buy a home today, because each dollar's value is way down. What else has changed in the last 40 years? Well, houses are larger now than they were then. The median home size has grown 150% since 1980 and at the same time, the family size is smaller, fewer people live in each home, so everyone has more space. And I discussed those types of things in detail with you before, so I won't get into all of that again. Today's homes have better amenities too. So really, the point is, if you are paying more on an inflation adjusted basis, you are getting more and it's also more likely that two parents are working today rather than one, in order to make those payments more affordable. And that fact right there that is not a great lifestyle outcome. Another way to say it is that it takes two to afford a home today rather than one. But yet, hey, that is society. All right. So with that understanding, let's look at the future. I completely believe that real estate values can soar another 490% over the next 40 years. I mean, even 600 or 700% is not out of the question, and there are a lot of reasons for this. I mean, chiefly, we're starting from a base here of a low housing supply, and we've got strong demographic demand, and we can almost certainly expect more monetary inflation the next four decades. The inflation rate is the one thing that nobody knows. 40 years ago, mortgage rates were 14% today, they're only at about half of that level. And see today's median home price of over 400k like that figure would have seemed unfathomable to people back in 1984 but indeed, the price nearly 5x So similarly, another 490% or about 5x again, means that it is completely fathomable for the median us home to cost $2 million in another 40 years. That's about 5x of today's prices. And although that might sound unrealistic Now, that sounds just as unrealistic as today's price did to anyone from 1984 so really a super interesting way to think about home price appreciation. There, you might even make the case that home values, not prices, home values, they're not up that much at all. I mean, most of that is just that prices have adjusted for inflation, the value is about the same, although I'd still say that the value is up somewhat. So really, that's my thought there, and I duly regret bringing Bill Cosby into this whole thing. I ruined it.    I've been coming to you here from Austin, Texas, where I've been checking out the real estate market. I've got more for you straight ahead. It is a really profitable idea. I'm Keith Weinhold. There will only ever be one episode, 528, of the GRE podcast, and you're listening to it,    oh, geez, the national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings, so your bank is getting rich off of you. You've got to earn way more, or else you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk, your cash generates up to a 10% return and compounds year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25k you keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back. Their decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full or. And on time. And you know how I'd know, because I'm an investor in this myself, earn 10% like me and GRE listeners are. Text FAMILY to 66866, to learn about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text FAMILY to 66866    Hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine, at Ridge lending group  NMLS. 42056, they've provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start Now while it's on your mind at Ridgelendinggroup.com, that's Ridgelendinggroup.com.   Robert Kiyosaki  26:05   this Rich Dad, Poor Dad. Author Robert Kiyosaki, listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold,and there is I respect Keith, He's a very strong, smart, bright young man.   Keith Weinhold  26:25   Welcome back to GRE. We are grateful to have on the show today, the co founder and CEO of the whole operation, Freedom family Investments. They are seven, soon to be eight. I just learned real estate centric companies based in Centerville, Ohio. The other co founder is her husband, Flip, whom you've heard on the show before. Hey, it's terrific to have back. Danni-Lynn Robinson,   Dani-Lynn Robison  26:50   thank you so much, Keith. I love talking to you.    Keith Weinhold  26:54   It's the same here. You've been in real estate since 2008 and one of the things that you do is you have this perfect track record of always returning capital to your individual private investors, loans that they make to you, and paying 100% of the returns as promised, even if you yourselves end up losing money on a particular deal. And in fact, you the listener, you probably heard me talk about how I personally participate for a high yield return with them myself, with Danny Lynn's company backing me. You've heard that ad near the middle of GRE episodes, and you yourself can do this too. Individual investors can get a high yielding return, and it's paid to you as cash. So Danny Lynn, tell us about how it works. Generally.   Dani-Lynn Robison  27:40   I love that you started off with that particular statement, because I will tell you that every time I've been on a podcast of yours, the number one thing I hear when people get on the phone was you said on that podcast that even if you lose money, that I still get my return. And I have never heard of that before, so tell me more. So that was a perfect lead in because I think that what we're trying to do is just do a very good job of serving the people who help us build so as you said, we're on company number seven. We're building company number eight. And the reason that we've gotten to the stage that we are today is because we've had private lenders and people who invest in our syndication, our Master notes and our funds program, that investment has allowed us to buy properties, flip properties, buy apartments, flip apartments, and allowed them to get a return at the same time. And I've talked about the fact that we do volume as we've grown, we'll do 10 deals in any given month, and maybe one or two of them are like we find something, you know, in the wall that we didn't expect. Maybe we walk in and the past tenant left it in shambles and caused more damage to the property than we anticipated when we first went in. That's the nature of real estate, and that's the risk you take when you're an active real estate investor. So we knew when we were building our businesses that if we just did volume, that was going to happen, and we weren't going to run away from that fact, or take risk upon us or our investors by not mitigating it, by not doing volume. So you'll see situations where somebody does one flip a month, and that happens to them, and it's catastrophic when you're doing 10, and it happens which it will then you know that the other eight are going to bring the profit in. And so that it is easy for us to say, Thank you, Keith, for investing in us. This particular deal. We didn't lose any money on, but these eight we made a lot of money on, and that ensures that we can always pay you back in full on time, even if we lost money on a deal. And I think when that is explained to people on the phone, they start understanding why we can pay back everything as promised, even if we lose money, because we are still profitable as a company. And so that process of doing volume and having people. People trust us with their funds. As we've grown, has allowed us to get to Company Number eight, because, as we talked about right before we press record, one of the best things for us, Flip says, I love being Santa Claus. And Santa Claus is when you get that email or that check in the bank account that says, I just made money and I didn't have to do anything. I just partnered with Flip, Danny and the freedom team to do what they do already. I provided the money. They did the work. We all won together.   Keith Weinhold  30:29   Why does no real estate rehabber ever find gold bars behind a wallwhen they go in in order to turn over a property? Right? It's usually, you know, evidence of a leak or something bad, usually not something good going on back there. But yes, you do this volume across all these companies. So therefore, when you do find a leak behind a wall, and that particular deal didn't work out for a 100k rehab home, it sure can't bring down the entire operation. Danny Lynn, I've invested with you in your private money lending program for years now, and just been very open with my audience. I've let them know that I've been receiving an 8% return from you paid in cash. But one reason I'm having you back now to help our audience is because you now offer yields up to 10% so even better than when I got in. So tell us about that.   Dani-Lynn Robison  31:24   So we are always having conversations with our investors about what's going on in their investing journey, what are they looking for, and we want to create those win wins. And right now, with everything that's going on in the market, what we learned is liquidity is one of the most important pieces, because there's here, there's some uncertainty, and people want to invest. They don't want their money sitting idle and losing, having an eroding to inflation. They want to put it to work, but they want to have access to it. And so we have been changing and tweaking our programs to meet the needs of our investors, and making sure that we are buying properties that can then have that arbitrage to get us the profit we need to pay back our investors, but while we're still making a profit many times right now in this market, that does mean we're buying multi family properties, because there's so many different advantages to multi family properties, it does take a lot of underwriting to get there, but that's where, for the last, I would say, six to 12 months, we've been really focused in on that in order to increase the returns and have everybody just creating that win win.   Keith Weinhold  32:32   I'm really glad that you talked about multifamily properties, because I've talked with the audience about how the sector is beaten down. In a lot of places, you can get 30% discounts on multifamily apartment buildings, and we know that the long term demand is going to be there for occupancy in apartment buildings. Demographics is destiny, and we talk about this timing of having you on and now you're offering up to 8% discussing this, say, two and a half years ago, I don't think the timing was as good. That's when CPI inflation peaked at 9.1% so you really weren't getting a real yield. You need to subtract inflation from your yield in order to get a real return. And now you're getting a substantial real return. Since inflation is near 2% top online savings accounts, those top interest rates, they are falling with each successive federal funds rate cut, and most expect that those yields are going to continue to fall. People invest in bonds all the time, but the yield on the 10 year T note has been around 4% or quite a while. You don't have to settle for yields like that. And Danny Lynn, I love that you brought up the word arbitrage. This should be an arbitrage play for you the listener. But of course, for Danny Lynn, it needs to be an arbitrage play as well, because if she and her family of companies over there are paying you a yield of up to 10% they need to make arbitrage ontop of that themselves. And if you're a new listener, you might be skeptical of how you could reliably do that in real estate, but when you understand that real estate pays up to five ways at the same time and 30 to 40% total rate of returns without inordinate risk, are not dream land, the reality you can begin to understand the arbitrage. But Danny Lynn, can you tell us a bit more about how you do create that arbitrage to reliably pay a return of up to 10% How do you yourselves beat that in there?   Dani-Lynn Robison  34:26   That's where it comes down to multifamily. For us, the single family market has slowed down a little bit, and so multifamily is enabling us to do bigger things. But on a long term basis, we've built our companies up enough to a point where we are businesses are producing the cash flow that we need so we can pay our investors a higher return using the cash flow of the properties, and our long term wealth as a company is coming from down the line of the appreciation, especially in multifamily, the forced appreciation, and that refinance and that when. Fall. So everything that we structure is preferred returns, meaning we always pay our investors first and we come last when it comes to multifamily, those five ways start to compound over time, and that's what we really win, is because we know we're waiting, but we're waiting for a big return in 3,5,7, years. Sometimes we're waiting 1020, years, and our investors in the meantime are getting a really nice return better than they can in most other places, because we're willing to forfeit our current returns in this scenario, because our other businesses are producing the cash flow that we need.   Keith Weinhold  35:38   That's terrific. Tell us a bit about the program details. Then how is this note? Right? Because the investor, as soon as they make an investment with you, they do hold on to a note. Just tell us about how that's secured before we get into the details.   Dani-Lynn Robison  35:53    So it depends on the investment opportunity. Some investments are going to be secured by a note by the property. Some investments are going to be secured by a note by the business. Some investments are going to be secured by the fund itself. You're an actual owner, like or the syndication, an actual owner of what that fund is participating in. So every piece of security is a little bit different. So when you jump on the phone with us. We're asking a lot of questions, and the number one question that we ask is, what are your goals? Because if you do want liquidity, we know exactly where you're going to go. And some people are wanting liquidity for peace of mind, so that they can earn a higher return, but have access to the cash if they want it. Some investors are saying, Hey, I know there's about to be a lot of opportunities. So I want my money earning for me, but I want to be able to grab it, to be able to invest in these future opportunities that are going to come my way when I want access to the capital for that reason. Then there's other investors that are set it and forget it. Look. I like you guys. I trust you guys. I've vetted you guys. I've done my due diligence on you guys. I want to sit my money in there for three, five years. Some want tax benefits. And so what we do is we have, like, this table of investments with like, little check boxes. And as people tell us their goals, we're like, okay, they're there. They're by the end of the conversation, we're saying, here's the two investment opportunities we think fits what you like and what is going to meet your needs? What do you think? And then we start going with question and answers back and forth so they can fully understand it.   Keith Weinhold  37:27   We're talking about how to get a high yield paid to you regularly in cash with Danny Lynn Robi son, co founder of freedom family investments. Yeah. Danny Lynn, why don't you tell us then about this up to 10% return. But you do have some option based on people's needs for the duration of the investment, which gets into the liquidity and the minimum investment amount and being accredited versus not accredited. So tell us about some of those distinctions, differences and trade offs.   Dani-Lynn Robison  37:55   There's the accredited and non accredited piece, which is really the first piece that you should be talking about when you jump on the phone, because the answer to that question depends on where, like we first check the box of which investment opportunity is going to be right for you. Accredited investors can invest in both. Non accredited investors can only invest in non accredited options. So accredited, I'm sure you've explained many times on the podcast, is a million dollars net worth, minus your primary residence, or earning $200,000 for the last two years, and you expect to earn it again. Or if you're a married couple, earning $300,000 a year for the last two years and you expect to do it again, that would be an accredited investor. So if you qualify there, we've got multiple opportunities. Then if you're wanting liquidity, then, again, that's a checkbox for us that says liquidity fund. That's where you want to be learning more about you want to learn about those interest rates the liquidity fund is seven, eight and 10% based on how long you want to put your money to work. So some people say, hey, one year is good. That gives me exactly the liquidity I need, and that's going to give me a higher rate of return, which is 8% some people think three years is liquid. It's interesting to me, what people perceive as liquid, because anybody who's invested in a syndication knows sometimes that's five, seven and 10 years. So they view a three year investment at 10% Hey, that's liquid to me. I didn't have to lock it up for five, seven and 10 years. And then some people, 90 days is liquid. And so we have the liquidity fund seven, eight and 10% depending on which class you want to go in, 7% is 90 days, 8% is one year. 10% is three years. That's for accredited investors. We have our masternote program, which is for non accredited investors, that is 8% for two years, and 10% I think, for three years, and then we have Lincoln village, and that one is closing soon. I think we're at the final $1 million to raise. That is 12, 13, and 14% but that also includes tax benefits. The end, it is a five or probably seven year timeline, because it's a 48 unit apartment in Columbus, Ohio, if we refinance in three years, yay. Everybody wins. But I always set expectations it could be a longer timeline. And so those are the main opportunities that are available based on accredited, non accredited and your returns.   Keith Weinhold  40:20   Well, the yield on the 10 year T note is 4% but here, the yield on the one year private note is substantially higher. Well, Danny Lynn, do you have any last things to tell us before you let us know how we can learn more?   Dani-Lynn Robison  40:34   I think what's important is a trust. When I'm on the phone, I get three questions. Where do I start? Which path is right for me and who do I trust? And one of my biggest investors says Danny, I think number three question of Who do I trust is the most important one. So I think it's really important to get on the phone to ask questions, to ask, Hey, what didn't I ask that I should have asked? What should I know that I don't know? Because sometimes you don't know the right questions to ask, and so we have this graph of all the things you could be looking for in an investment that people don't even realize might be very important to them. So I think what is most important is just taking the first step of starting the conversation. Once you start the conversation, you start to learn, you start to get educated, you start to understand what your true goals really are, and then you can make an A confident decision, as opposed to what many of us do is, you know, sit on our hands for a little bit because we're just nervous. We're so nervous about losing money or we don't know who to trust, and we're so busy that a year passes by and we just didn't take action. So I just encourage people a 15 minute phone call might change the game for you and allow you to get started   Keith Weinhold  41:45    right indecision really is a decision in itself, a decision to not do anything and have some of your cash be atrophied to inflation. Tell the audience how they can learn more   Dani-Lynn Robison  41:58   They can text the word FAMILY to 66866 and that is going to connect you with our team, and we're going to reach out, hopefully, set up a call and get that conversation started.   Keith Weinhold  42:09   Oh. Danny Lynn, this is going to help a lot of people. Thanks so much for coming back onto the show.   Dani-Lynn Robison  42:13   Thank you, Keith,   Keith Weinhold  42:14   yeah, well, I think you know that I'm more of a borrower than I am  lender, but I'm a lender in this case. So for liquid funds, this has been a reliable source for an 8% liquid return without any hassle. I mean, it's about as passive as it gets. Of course, when you store money in a bank. You're giving the bank a loan as well, even though you might not have thought about it that way. Well, if you're looking for something a little less liquid, like a three year investment duration, you are going to get a higher return than 8% here. There are good options here if you're accredited or not accredited, and you don't have to invest in one specific apartment project either, like Lincoln village that Danny Lynn mentioned, and over there at her company, like she said, yeah, those are the three questions you can ask. Where do I start? Which path is right for me, and who do I trust? And on the phone really part of that second question, which path is right for me can be to ask Danny Lynn's team about how to get this highly passive return in the most tax efficient way for you.    There's so much vital content coming up here on the show in the future. Next week, it's the first time we'll have a former NFL player on the show is we'll discuss success principles that you can use in business and life, highly motivational stuff coming there in future weeks. So much more economics and real estate investing. Content is coming, including I've got an analysis of online search results, and you'll see what amenities tenants are really searching for today when they look for rental housing. And of course, as the year gets closer to the end, next month, I am going to reveal GRE 's home price growth forecast for 2025 and just as importantly, I will follow up with last year's prediction too. We'll look back at it and then see how it really turned out for high yield returns on your savings. You don't have to settle for disappointing interest rates where you spin your wheels because you're barely beating inflation. Learn more. Set up a call. Just text FAMILY to 66866 I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream   Speaker 2  44:45   nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential. For profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively.   Keith Weinhold  45:13   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com you

Get Rich Education
527: Countdown to Disaster—Four Threats Facing the U.S. with Richard Duncan

Get Rich Education

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 11, 2024 52:54


Keith discusses the current state of the US economy, noting that while it is considered strong by conventional measures, there are four major threats on the horizon that the country is not doing enough to address. He's joined by our guest, macroeconomic expert, Richard Duncan to discuss these topics. Richard proposes a solution that could strengthen the US's competitive position against China. Shifting from Capitalism to Creditism. Also, hear about the risks facing the real estate and stock markets in the near-term, such as the historically high wealth-to-income ratio and the ongoing quantitative tightening by the Federal Reserve. Learn more about Richard's work through his video newsletter, Macro Watch. Use discount code GRE for 50% off at: RichardDuncanEconomics.com Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/527 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching:GREmarketplace.com/Coach Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai  Keith Weinhold  0:01   Keith, welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, per conventional measures, today's us. Economy is strong, but there are four vicious threats on the horizon, and we're not doing enough about them. Our macroeconomist guests will discuss that with us today. How alarming is it, and what's the solution to our crises, this week on get rich education,   Speaker 1  0:27   since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, who delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com   Corey Coates  1:12   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  1:28   Welcome to GRE from Fort Wayne, Indiana to Fort Lee New Jersey and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are back inside get rich education. We've been here for you, every single week since 2014 coming off of an election last week, this spurs more macroeconomic thought, monetary and fiscal policy, and more than that. And you know, one thing that I'm always looking for are signs of inflation versus deflation, because we live in a long term inflationary world. Well, you wouldn't keep a million bucks under a mattress because it would only be worth 300k in a few decades. But in deflation, you would flip your strategy and actually be a saver. You might keep millions out of the mattress, because deflation would actually increase the purchasing power of every single one of your dollars. Now, I've got a pretty unpopular take for you here at some point, probably now you've got to give the Fed credit for a soft landing. And what does a soft landing mean? Exactly. It means bringing down inflation without putting the economy into a recession. Well, inflation is down to about 2% now, unemployment is still low, near 4% and GDP growth for last quarter came in at 2.8% okay, yes, I sure understand that those benefits are distributed unevenly, but at this point, how much more of a soft landing Do you really want? And by the way, this sure doesn't mean that I love the Federal Reserve. I mean, they get no credit from me for not jumping on inflation sooner, when it peaked two and a half years ago, or even before that point, well, those high consumer prices as a result of that are still with us, and that's a problem, and they got that part wrong. We're about to talk with our global macroeconomic expert, really. He is one of the foremost authorities in the entire world today. We're going to talk about four major catastrophes the US economic future faces. One of those four is our ballooning national debt and deficit. And to review that for you, first, the debt is our overall accumulation of debt over the years now at 36 trillion. And when it comes to these awful, dreadful debt and deficit issues, I will ask our guests the question, when is it game over? Where is that tipping point? What would need to happen and the deficit? Okay, that refers to the annual shortfall, the annual thing, that shortfall that our bloated government keeps coming up with at the end of every year, all right, so therefore revenue minus spending equals deficit. Another way to say that is income minus expenses equals a deficit when the expenses are greater than the income. Well, that figure is near $2 trillion we're spending 2 trillion more than we raise in revenue each year. And here's an example. I'll use real world numbers rounded off to the nearest trillion. So if the government's annual revenue is only 5 trillion and you have to subtract out spending, which is 7 trillion, that could. Gives us an annual deficit of 2 trillion, pretty simple stuff, and that more or less gets added onto our overall debt of 36 trillion. Another major problem is this growing competition from China. Yes, I know that people like to discuss their demographic problems, but still, their population is more than four times the US population, and you learn about what other advantages they have over us and what we direly need to do to catch up. In our guests opinion, these issues incur some rather detailed explanations. So I'm really going to let our guest expert takeover for a while today, this weekend, I will be in San Antonio, Texas. San Antonio is an uptrending real estate market because they are really a beneficiary in distribution with their proximity to Mexico in the near shoring movement that's taking place. And then I will be in Austin, Texas, for a few days, Austin is one of the few major US metros that have seen rents substantially decline recently. I'll bring you next week's show from Austin, where I might talk more about that. Then, from the 20th to the 24th of this month, I'll be in New Orleans at the famed New Orleans investment conference, where they're pulling out all the stops at the 50th anniversary of the event, and that is the longest running investment event in America and perhaps the world. I hope to meet some of you there in New Orleans, just like I do each time I'm at the event. Let's talk about the bigger picture economy that your real estate and investments float within next.   This week's guest is the author of four books analyzing the crises that brought the global economy to the brink of collapse in recent decades. One of the books forecast the 2008 global financial crisis with great accuracy. We're going to discuss future crises here today, before we're done, he has worked as an equities and Investment Analyst, and then he went on to hold some rather esteemed roles at the World Bank in DC and as a consultant to the IMF in Asia. He joins us from Thailand today. He now publishes a video newsletter called macro watch, and long time listeners know that today's guest was also this show's very first guest that was back on GRE podcast episode seven, only 10 years ago now, in November 2014, and he's really become quite the friend of the show, and we've looked out for each other ever since. It's terrific to have back global macro economist Richard Duncan   Richard Duncan  7:46   Keith, hey, thank you for having me back. It's great to speak with you again.   Keith Weinhold  7:50   Oh, it's so good to have you here an entire decade of our lives. And as times change, economies are surely dynamic, and you're so good at spotlighting crises and explaining them in a way to people that they can understand. So Richard, why don't you talk to us now about risks facing the nation? Yes, I'm talking about the United States.   Richard Duncan  8:15   A lot of podcasts focus on all the problems the United States is facing, and it is certainly true that the United States is facing very serious risk. So I'd like to start off this conversation telling you what I think the greatest risk facing our country are. There are four main things I'd like to hit on. The first is something you mentioned to me before in our exchange of emails, is that the US government does have a very high level of government debt relative to GDP, and the budget deficits are large. So that's problem number one. Problem number two, in my opinion, looking at this from where I live in Asia, is that the United States is at risk of being conquered by China in the not too distant future. Risk Number Two. Risk Number three, we have very serious domestic political divisions within the United States. Risk Number four is that our post capitalist economic system, which I call creditism, must have credit growth to survive. If credit contracts, then our economy will spiral into a Great Depression that will be probably worse than the one of the 1930s so those are the big four problems that we have, and it doesn't do anyone any good just to talk about our country's problems if you don't offer a solution to them. So in my opinion, all of these problems can be overcome by accelerating economic growth in the United States, while all of these problems would be made very much worse by anything that causes us economic growth to slow down. The way to make the US economy grow much faster is to have the US Government finance a very, very large investment in the industries and technologies of the future over the next 10 years, starting immediately. The alternative austerity would cause the economy to spiral down into deflation. We'd like your listeners to think of austerity when they hear the word austerity. I'd like them to think of the word death. It's austerity is equal to death. Yeah, the US doesn't have to be a declining power. The first American Century doesn't have to be the last. It can be the first of many. The solution for driving the US economy to grow much more rapidly and solving all four of the problems that I mentioned above is a US sovereign wealth fund. Thank heavens. Both parties now support the establishment of a US sovereign wealth fund. On September 5, former President Trump came out in support of establishing a US sovereign wealth fund, and on the following day, the Biden administration said, then working on this for months and had a plan that they were developing. So this is fantastic news for the United States. It offers great hope for solving all of our greatest problems. And I'd like to spend, you know, a few minutes explaining to your listeners what a US sovereign wealth fund is, yes, urgently necessary, and why both parties have now come to understand why this is important to establish.   Keith Weinhold  11:27   Yeah, please tell us why you think the US sovereign wealth fund is so urgently needed, and what it is because for even longer than the 10 years since you were first here, for about 15 years now, you have championed and promoted this US sovereign wealth fund. You discussed it on CNBC Squawk Box and all over the place. Last year, you presented about it in a speech in DC to 15 members of the House, Ways and Means Committee. So tell us about the US sovereign wealth fund and why you think it's urgently needed.   Richard Duncan  11:56    Let's begin with, what is a sovereign wealth fund? Well, effectively, a sovereign wealth fund is where a country invest in individual companies or even in startups. There are sovereign wealth funds all around the world. Norway has the largest, Singapore has two very effective ones called gdic and Temasek, which had been enormously profitable and successful, and it made the people in Singapore much richer. So a sovereign wealth fund in the United States would be an investment bond financed by the United States government with the US. This investment fund would take stakes in existing companies and also in startup companies, hopefully on a very large scale. Now, some people have asked, Why is this framework necessary? Why do we need a sovereign wealth fund to do that when the government is already making investments in the military, for instance, and funding some R and D research? Well, the difference between what the government is doing now and a sovereign wealth fund is with a sovereign wealth fund, the government would actually keep equity stakes in these companies that they invest in, meaning that when these companies they invest in become enormously profitable, the profits would be owned by every American. The Americans would have the equity stakes in all of the investments that this sovereign wealth fund makes. And it would be a situation where the government provides the financing, but the private sector manages the companies. The government just finances these companies in new industries and new technologies, and the government has the ability to invest on a very much larger scale than the private sector does. For example, The United States has a lot of great companies in the private sector that have accomplished really, truly great things in recent years and long past as well. But these private sector companies cannot invest on the same scale that the Chinese government can. The Chinese government is investing on a much larger scale than any of the American companies could ever dream to invest on. And that's explains why China is overtaking us now technologically, and if they continue to invest at a rapid rate that they're doing currently, then before long, there are going to be far ahead of us technologically and therefore economically, and more worryingly, militarily, the US government has the ability to invest truly on a multi trillion dollar scale over the next decade in new industries and technologies, things like artificial intelligence, quantum computing, nanotech, biotech, genetic engineering and developing energy sources like fusion, and it has the ability to do this on such a large scale that it would be certain to succeed. And once these companies start creating cancer vaccines or fusion, for instance, they would be enormously profitable, and they could be listed on. NASDAQ at multi trillion dollar valuations, and the American public would own equity stakes in these companies, and would then would directly reap the rewards of these profits that these companies would generate. That is what a sovereign wealth fund is, why it's desperately needed, is, well, first of all, we should do it, because we can easily afford to do it. And the results, the breakthroughs, the technological breakthroughs and medical miracles that these sorts of companies would produce, would we really have the shot of curing all the diseases and radically extending life expectancy, developing sources of limitless energy that would bring down the cost of energy radically. Just across the board, it would induce a technological revolution that would turbo charge us economic growth, create UNDRIP wealth, and at the same time, shore up US national security in the face of this growing threat from China. So for all of those reasons, it is urgently necessary. In my opinion.   Keith Weinhold  16:04   both Norway and Singapore have had similar models to this. US sovereign wealth fund, and we certainly think of those two nations as prosperous places, tell me more about why it's a success so the government finances it does that incentivize companies to therefore take more risk?   Richard Duncan  16:25   It allows them to invest more. It allows them to invest on a much larger scale than that. Could if they have to rely on their own funding sources. Rather than investing millions of dollars, they could invest billions of dollars or 10s of billions of dollars. For instance, at the moment, the National Cancer Institute in the United States, this annual budget is $6 billion a year. $6 billion a year is not curing cancer. If we look back a few years ago, the Fed was creating $120 billion a month through quantitative easing per month. So with just 5% of one month of QE, you could double the National Cancer Institute's budget. Now that's not what this sovereign wealth fund would do. That just illustrates the scale. How much greater the scale would be that the government could invest on relative to what is currently being invested at the moment by the government and by the private sector combined.   Keith Weinhold  17:28   Do any critics ever ask about Wait? Is this too much government intervention into the free market? Is this a move away from capitalism? What do you say to those sort of critics?   Richard Duncan  17:38    I say to them that capitalism died in World War One. It certainly didn't survive the 20th century. Now the government. In the 19th century, we had capitalism. The government had very little involvement in the economy then and gold was money. But now gold is no longer money. The Fed creates some money. Government spending is something like nearly $7 trillion out of a GDP. That is around just not quite $30 trillion yet. So the government has been directing the economy going back at least since World War Two. This hasn't been capitalism for a very long time. Under capitalism, the private sector made investments, and some businessmen would make profits from their investments, and they would save that profit as capital and reinvest that capital. That's how capitalism grew. That's why they called it capitalism. It was based on capital accumulation and investment. But that's not how our economic system has worked for decades. Our system now is not driven by investment and saving by the private sector. It's driven by credit creation and consumption and more credit creation and more consumption and our economies has now been transformed from capitalism. It has evolved into creditism, with the government playing the directing role. So total credit in the United States, just last quarter blew through $100 trillion for the first time. By what I mean by total credit is the same thing as total debt. Total credit is equal to total debt. So this is all the debt of all sectors of the economy, the government sector, the household sector, the corporate sector, the financial sector, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac all the sectors of the economy, it just went through $100 trillion and Breda ism has created very rapid growth, especially all around the world, not only in the United States, because it has allowed the US economy to grow so rapidly and to import so much from other countries that this is why The Asian miracle occurred. I've lived through the Asian miracle because the US has been running massively large trade deficits since the early 1980s and all these countries in Asia have been running massively large trade surpluses, and all this spending that the Americans have been doing has been fueled by this rapidly. Radically expansion of credit. Total credit first went through $1 trillion in 1964 now it's $100,000,000,000,000. 60 years later. Now our system is not capitalism. The government is very involved. Anytime there's any problem with the economy, the government steps in. In 2008 the government prevented a new Great Depression when the private sector the households defaulted on their debts and caused all the banks to fail, and Freddie Mac did fail and had to be taken over by the government. So at that time, we narrowly avoided a Great Depression, because the government increased its budget deficits by more than a trillion dollars a year for four years in a row, and the Fed expanded. The Fed created three and a half trillion dollars between the end of 2007 and 2014, expanding its balance sheet by about five times. So that's not capitalism. We don't have capitalism. So people who are worried about us abandoning capitalism. They're behind the times that happened a long time ago. That shouldn't be a concern. They should be aware now that we are competing against players who don't play by the capitalist rules of little government intervention in the markets we're now competing against China, and China is one giant sovereign wealth fund intent on dominating the world by investing very aggressively in new industries and technologies. In the year 2000 the United States invested, I think, 10 times as much in research and development as China did. But now China is actually investing more in research and development and the US is and that explains why China is ahead in so many areas of technology. They had 5g years before we did. They are the leaders in electric vehicles and batteries. We have to put up 100% tariffs to keep out electric vehicles from China because they're so much better than our electric vehicles. They dominate solar panels. And are worse, they have hypersonic missiles and we don't, and I'm sure they have other military advantages that we don't, because they invest much more aggressively in new industries and technologies than our government does. And if we don't rectify this quickly, then we are soon going to be overtaken by China militarily, and our national security is at risk, much more than most Americans understand. But this realization has slowly grown on policymakers in Washington, and now both parties are worried about this, and this is why we have this growing fear of China, and why we have proposals to limit technology transfers to China, and this is why we've done things like the chips and science act, where the government has agreed to finance a $280 billion investment in new industries and technologies a couple of years ago, with 50 billion of that going into setting up manufacturing facilities within the in the US to create semiconductors, rather than relying solely on Taiwan to obtain all of our semiconductors, because China could take Taiwan at any moment, and then then he would end up with all the semiconductor chips that go into powering artificial intelligence. And whoever develops Artificial General Intelligence first is going to rule the world, and therefore it had better be the United States rather than China, because we don't want to live in a world dominated by China, believe me.    Keith Weinhold  23:26   Well, a lot of macro voices agree with you. About two months ago, we had the president of the Mises Institute here, and the way he characterized things are in the United States. 100 years ago, we had islands of socialism in a sea of capitalism, and today we merely have islands of capitalism in a sea of socialism. Do you see the US sovereign wealth fund being able to solve all four of the United States big problems that you outlined, debt and deficit conquering by China, political division and creditism. Can it solve all four of those?   Richard Duncan  24:04   Yes, it can. So as you know, Keith, a couple of years ago, I published my fourth book. It was called the money revolution. Yeah? How to find the book? Sure, yeah. How to finance the next American century. It was a subtitle. Now I argue that it would be very easy for the US to invest on a multi trillion dollar scale, new industries and new technologies over the next decade, and if we do that through a sovereign wealth fund, then would generate so much growth and be so profitable that instead of causing the government debt to increase, it would actually make the economy so much larger and generate so many more tax revenues, and the government would make so many profits from these companies that it has equity stakes in that it would reduce the government debt in absolute terms, and radically reduce the government debt relative to GDP, which would grow far faster than it has been growing in recent decades. This problem, number one, solved the high level of government debt. A high level of debt to GDP just make the GDP grow a lot faster, and the ratio of debt to GDP will go down. Problem number two is the US is at risk of being conquered by China. We can out invest China. We can invest more than China can afford to invest. We still have the best universities and the best entrepreneurs and scientists. So if we invest on a large enough scale, we will win, and China will not conquer us. Third, if the economy is growing at 7% a year instead of 1% a year, that is going to alleviate a lot of the domestic tensions that exist currently, much of the reason there's the origins of this domestic political divide that we're now suffering from in the US is because such a large part of the population has been left behind when all the factories moved overseas, countries like China and Vietnam, we de industrialized, and the people who Used to have good factory jobs, good, unionized, high paying factory jobs. All those people were left out in the cold, and they're not happy about it. And so if our economy were growing much more rapidly, these people would have much better jobs and much higher salaries, and they would be much happier than they are at the moment. And the final one was our post capitalist system of creditism requires credit growth to survive. So if the government is financing these investments on a multi trillion dollar scale, it's going to make credit expand, and that's going to keep the economy expanding. So yes, it would solve all four of those problems.   Keith Weinhold  26:35   One of those four problems is the debt and the deficit. I want to dive into that more with Richard as it becomes more and more problematic in the United States, and just how far we can kick this can down the road. You're listening to get rich education. We're talking with macro economist Richard Duncan. More, we come back. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold.    Oh, geez. The national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings. So your bank is getting rich off of you. You've got to earn way more, or else you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk, your cash generates up to a 10% return and compounds year in and year out, instead of earning less than 1% in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25k you keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back. Their decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And you know how I know, because I'm an investor in this myself, earn 10% like me and GRE listeners are. Text family to 66866, to learn about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text family to 66866    Hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine at Ridge lending group, NMLS, 420056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start Now while it's on your mind at Ridgelendinggroup.com that's Ridgelendinggroup.com   Jim Rickards  28:40   this is Author Jim Rickards. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.   Keith Weinhold  28:55   Welcome back to get rich education. We are going big this week, talking about the global economy, although mostly centered on the United States, with macroeconomist Richard Duncan. You can learn more about him at RichardDuncaneconomics.com and Richard I want to talk about the debt in the deficit. The debt is the United States overall debt as it accumulates year after year, and the deficit is just the annual thing, and it's so interesting and concerning. When I look at this, when you look at the line items in the United States government's annual spending, we now see that interest payments are taking the second largest chunk, only to Social Security. Social Security's number one interest is the second biggest expense, even more than defense spending and on Medicare. So I just wonder, as I see the interest payments going up and up and up and projected to be our greatest expense every year. You know, one thing I think about Richard is when our interest payments alone exceed our. Revenue somewhere down the road, is that when it's game over, or is that when we're on the way to game over? So can you talk to us about really, where the concern crops up with the deficit, like I talked about, and with the debt that's now at about $36 trillion   Richard Duncan  30:17   deficit and debt is a real problem. It was the first problem that I mentioned when we kicked off the conversation. There are two components of that. One is the fact that government debt has been increasing very rapidly. At the end of 2007 total government debt was around $9 trillion by 2014 it had doubled to $18 trillion because the government had to respond to the collapse of the private sector in 2008 and prevent us from having a great depression at that time, and then after 2014 it has doubled again, from 18 trillion to $36 trillion now, much of that was due to the need for the government to keep us from having another Great Depression during COVID When government stimulus amounted to about $5 trillion and the Fed created a similar amount over just a two year period. So now we have a much higher level of government debt. But the second component of that is that interest rates are very much higher than they used to be. The federal funds rate went up from 0% a few years back to a high of five and a quarter, actually a range between five and a quarter and five and a half. And recently, the Fed cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points. But you can still say it is 4.9% let's call it 4.9% so interest rates are far higher than they used to be, but they don't have to remain high. The reason interest rates went up is because the Fed increased the federal funds rate. And the reason the Fed increased the federal funds rate is because we had high rates of inflation. Inflation peaked at 9% or so in 2022 but most recently, the CPI has come back down to 2.4% and the Fed's favorite measure of inflation, that PCE Price Index, has come down to 2.2% and that means that the federal funds rate, which is 4.9% is more than twice as high as the inflation rate is. That shows us that we have very tight monetary policy, and the Fed should be able to reduce interest rates very rapidly going forward. They've told us in their dot plot projections that they expect that interest rates will end this year the federal funds rate at 4.4% and then in next year, at 3.4% and 2026 at 2.9% so that reduction in interest rates will bring down the cost of the total interest expense that you mentioned as being so high currently, the risk, however, is that we get a rebound in inflation. We're inflation to surge again, then interest rates won't come down. In fact, they could go higher. So all of my career, more or less, has been spent in Asia. And the main theme that is run through the global economy, the development of the global economy over the last three and a half decades has been globalization, globalization in the form of us running very large trade deficits with other countries. Literally, the US current account deficit since the early 1980s has been $15 trillion meaning countries with the trade surpluses have had a $15 trillion trade surplus, and that's why they've all been transformed economically as a result of their trade surplus with the US, but what the US got out of this was the ability to buy things made with very low cost labor, and that was extremely disinflationary, that drove down the inflation rate in the US, and that allowed interest rates in the US to come down to very low levels that we've seen during most of this century, Up until the time COVID started. The real danger is now, if we do impose very high trade tariffs on China and our other trading partners, then that will cause a very serious spike in inflation. And it won't just be one off, because, of course, when the tariffs are put in place, that will immediately cause everything to be that much more expensive. The US companies importing goods from abroad would have to pay that tariff, then those US companies would pass those higher expenses on to the consumers, so we'd get an immediate spike in inflation. But that would also mean that the companies abroad it wouldn't be so profitable for them to have their manufacturing facilities abroad, they would try to bring those back home. And given that the unemployment rate in the US is so low already, only 4.1% there's not enough labor to allow these manufacturing facilities to come back to the US and start producing goods in the US. So that would cause an upward spiral. In wages and the wage push inflation spiral of the type that we had in the late 1960s and early 1970s so that is a In other words, tariffs would put an end to globalization, and that would cause a such a severe spike in inflation and interest rates, it would essentially be the death nail for creditism, which requires credit growth to survive. The end of globalization would mean this end of this 30 year global economic boom that the world has enjoyed, and therefore it is a very severe threat, and it would push up the interest expense of the US government, which you let off with, instead of lower interest rates, bringing down the interest expense the government has to pay every year, we would have instead higher interest rates, which would make the amount that the government has to pay on its interest even higher than it is at the moment, and make the budget deficit even larger than it is at the moment, and Make the government debt grow even faster than it's growing at the moment. So let's hope that doesn't happen. Instead, the better approach is to invest, to have the government finance large scale investments in new industries and technologies make the economy grow much more rapidly and we can grow our way out of this debt problem that we're currently in,   Keith Weinhold  36:21   yes more inflation, whether that comes from higher tarrifs or any other sources, will lead to higher interest rates to counteract that higher inflation, which will Yes, pump up the deficit in the debt that much more. And you know, one thing that I like about Richard is, you know, a lot of people complain about things, or say, what are we going to do? Or Things look bad, and Richard is saying some of that, but he offers a way forward with the US sovereign wealth fund, like he talked about before, investing our way out of it. So Richard, if we don't invest in this debt and deficit situation gets worse. It could be a hard question to answer, but I'd like your best guess at how far can we kick the can down the road? When is it game over? How big do our interest payments on the debt and deficit have to get?    Richard Duncan  37:10   the game is never over. No matter how bad things become, humanity will survive and carry on. So even in the Great Depression, people made it through, even through World War Two that resulted, largely as a result of the Great Depression. A lot of people died. 60 million people died, but the game didn't end. So regardless of how bad the economic system system were to become, humanity will survive and there will be a solution. Now, a lot of people put forward that, the idea that they point out that we have this high level of government debt, and their solution is to reduce government spending. The government spends something like $6.8 trillion last year. That was the amount the government spent. The budget deficit last year was 1.8 trillion so in order to eliminate the budget deficit, the government would have to spend $1.8 trillion less. In other words, it would have to cut its spending by 27% but the government cut its spending by 27% they're going to happen. The economy would immediately spiral into a depression. So even that reduction in spending wouldn't balance the budget, because the government revenues would collapse, and they would have even fewer tax revenues, so the deficit would still be there, the economy would collapse, and the unemployment rate would be 20 plus percent, and would just fall further behind China and be at greater risk from a national security perspective, and much more miserable As a society overall. That's why it's always say people should consider think of the words austerity and death at the same time, because austerity would bring about the collapse of our economic system and the Great Depression unless your civilization would survive it.  trying to answer your question more directly, how high could this go? Well, governments don't default on their debt when push comes to shove. If the government's having a hard time paying interest on its debt, the Fed will just print more money. And in a case where between 2008 and 2014 when the Fed created three and a half trillion dollars, they printed a lot of money at that short space of time, and they got away with it without having high rates of inflation. The highest rate of inflation we had during that period was 3.8% in 2011 and by the early months of 2015 we had deflation again for a few months. Prices actually fell negative CPI for a few months in 2015 so if we have a global economy, as we do at the moment, full of we have nearly 8 billion people, I would guess 2 billion of them at least live on less than $5 a day. So the US could get away with having a lot of paper money printing without having higher, very high rates of inflation and the government could finance itself that way for quite a long time. Of course, if we have a closed domestic economy brought about by extremely high tariff barriers, then we would end up with hyperinflation in the United States. But even with hyperinflation, it would be very painful for people who have all their cash in the bank or under their mattress, but people with assets, those asset prices would appreciate more or less in line with the inflation, and it would erode the government debt relative to the size of the economy, because the GDP would grow in nominal terms very rapidly because of the hyperinflation, and the debt, which is not inflation adjusted, would be evaporated away by the inflation.   Keith Weinhold  40:43    right? that's why here at GRE we are all invested and aimed toward prudent use of leverage with assets like real estate and we sure have been the beneficiaries of that wave of inflation that followed COVID there. Richard, well, we're talking about the debt and the deficit somewhat, which, interestingly, has actually doubled since the first time you were here on the show. When you were here, 10 years ago, it was at 18 trillion, and today it's at 36 trillion. We talked about, how far can you kick the can down the road back then? Well, here we are, 10 years later, and it's doubled. Talk to us. You know, you talked previously about the greatest risk to the United States economy. Tell us now, as we are investors here on this show, about the greatest risk to the real estate and stock market, I would just say within the next year. What are some of those risks to those particular markets?   Richard Duncan  41:38   We've already discussed the main risk that high tariffs would potentially cause a new spike of inflation and force the Fed to hike interest rates rather than cutting interest rates. But there are some other risk as well. One is the fact that we already have a very high level of wealth relative to income. Let me back up a second. You were talking about debt doubling since we first spoke 10 years ago. Here's another statistic for you. Just in the last four and a half years, the total wealth of the Americans, all of their assets minus all of their liabilities. In other words, household sector net worth. Since the end of 2019 it has increased by $47 trillion in four and a half years. That's about a 40% increase. Now, $47 trillion is enough to pay off the entire US government tip, which we've been worrying about with $11 trillion left over. So not everything is as bleak as it sounds on the surface. We've had a huge explosion of wealth in the last four and a half years that's been driven by property and also by stocks. The problem now is, is that the level of income the asset prices, are very inflated relative to their historic norms. And one of the ratios that I always keep an eye on is called the wealth to income ratio. It takes the household sector net worth. In other words, the wealth that we were just discussing, which, by the way, is now $164 trillion of wealth owned by the Americans. The wealth divided by income, disposable personal income, this wealth to income ratio is now an extraordinarily high level. The ratio is 785% whereas the average of that ratio going back to 1950 has been 550% the previous two peaks were in the year 2000 when it hit 620 during the NASDAQ bubble, and then that bubble popped, and the stock market crashed, and we had a recession, and it went back to 550 and then it surged to a new peak of 680 during the property bubble. And then that bubble popped, and we almost went into a depression, and that a lot of wealth was destroyed. We had a severe recession. The government had to bail us out from and that ratio went back to 550 again. Now it is just off the charts relative to its previous peaks, because people 680 now it's 785 so people used to suggest that higher asset prices were justified because interest rates were near 0% but even after the Fed hiked interest rates from near 0% to about 5% The asset prices have stayed inflated. That does suggest that asset prices are very inflated and therefore very vulnerable to any sort of shock that could occur, whether geopolitical or economic or domestic political problems. So that's a concern. Another concern is quantitative tightening is still occurring. Quantitative tightening is the opposite of quantitative easing. When, with quantitative easing, the Fed creates money and pumps it into the financial markets, and that tends to make asset prices go up, and it also tends to make interest rates on government debt stay low, because if it pushes up bond prices, it pushes down. Bond yields. Well, now the opposite is occurring. Over the last two years, the Fed has destroyed roughly $2 trillion it created $5 trillion from the end of 2019 till about 2022 during the COVID pandemic, and the policy response to that, the Fed created $5 trillion but now it's destroyed 2 trillion of that five that it created, and is still destroying dollars at the rate of about $60 billion a month, or $700 billion a year. And as it does, as it destroys dollars, it takes dollars out of the financial system, which all other things being the same, tends to make financial conditions tighter, putting upward pressure on bond yields and downward pressure on asset prices. So as this continues, this is a concern, because reduce the liquidity in the system by another $700 billion if it continues for another year, having said that there is still an enormous amount of excess liquidity in the system as a result of all of the money that the Fed has created, going back to 2008 I estimate that the excess liquidity is somewhere around three and a half trillion dollars. If you look at bank reserves and the reverse repos at the Fed is about three and a half trillion dollars of excess liquidity, and the Fed actually has to pay interest to the banks on their bank reserves to hold interest rates up. That's how the Fed controls the federal funds rate now. It pays the banks roughly right now, 4.8% interest on all of the banks bank reserves, and so the banks will not lend money to anyone at less than 4.8% interest, because the Fed will pay them 4.8% interest. Why would they lend to anyone else for less if it suddenly stopped paying interest on these bank reserves, these banks would look around and where would they invest their three and a half trillion dollars in? No one's going to pay them 4.8% or even 3.8% or 2.8% interest rates would plunge because of all the excess liquidity that exists. So this excess liquidity has been a thing that's been driving the economy since COVID started, and it's why we've managed to avoid recession, which everyone is expected to arrive any moment now for the last two and a half years. So there are concerns, but there are also, as always, other reasons for optimism.   Keith Weinhold  47:24   Well, that wealth to income ratio that Richard talked about, that's a calculation that you yourself can do. One's net worth is almost eight times their income now, which is at a historic high, which is one concerning point that Richard brought up. Well, Richard, I want you to tell us about your terrific video newsletter, macro watch unless you have any other last thoughts first.   Richard Duncan  47:51   well, just one last word on the US sovereign wealth fund. Thank you very much for giving me a chance to discuss that and to explain why both Democrats and Republicans are now in favor of establishing a US sovereign wealth fund, one of the few issues that has bipartisan support. And this must come as a surprise to many of your listeners and most Americans, in fact, why have both parties agreed on really setting up a US sovereign wealth fund? So I'm glad I've had a chance to explain it and why it's so urgently necessary. I'd just like to emphasize the extraordinary benefits that this delivers to the American people, both individually and at a national level, individually, in terms of medical breakthroughs and better health and much more rapid economic growth for the economy, so much more wealth and much more national security as well. So I hope the Americans will get on board with this idea and give it their full support, because it's exactly what our country needs to solve all the four issues, the major issues that I laid out at the beginning of this conversation. But with that said, if your listeners would like to learn more about my work, Macrowatch. Microwatch is a video newsletter. Every couple of weeks, I upload a new video discussing something important happening in the global economy and how that's likely to affect the stock market, property, currencies and commodities. They can find macro watch on my website, which is RichardDuncanEconomics.com that's RichardDuncanEconomics.com Macro Watch has been going on now for 11 years, they'll find more than 100 hours of videos in the microwatch archives. They can begin watching immediately, and they'll receive a new video every couple of weeks. And I'd like to offer your listeners a subscription discount. If they go to Richard Duncan economics.com and hit the subscribe button, they'll be prompted to put in a discount coupon code, if they put it in G, R, E, they can subscribe to macro watch at a 50% discount. That's great. That's GRE so I hope they'll check that out, and at the very least, they can sign up there for my free blog and follow my work that way.   Keith Weinhold  49:56   And I have benefited from consuming macro watch content myself over the years, allowing me to sort of stretch my thought process and go macro, which we don't always do as real estate investors. Oh, Richard, it's been valuable as always, and you really offered a solution, a way forward here, something that's really refreshing. It's been great as always, having you back on the show.   Richard Duncan  50:18   Yeah. Thank you very much. I look forward to the next time   Keith Weinhold  50:21   me too. when it comes to the term capitalism, if that's truly a system that we're no longer in, you know, it seems to get replaced with the word meritocracy, and that is a word that I like, meritocracy, where producers get rewards for being productive, but even that is under attack, and the government just always seems to be stepping in with a safety net. Seemingly everywhere you look, it won't let banks fail. We saw them jump in early last year with Silicon Valley Bank and other bank failures, the government won't let homeowners fail either. I mean, you don't have to think back very far with mortgage loan forbearance in the COVID era, on issues of the debt and deficit. Even Fed Chair Jerome Powell himself has called it unsustainable. That's the word that he used. Like Richard said today, we won't default. We'll just print more. So when it comes to the inflation versus deflation tug of war, the future keeps looking inflationary, but at what rate of inflation? That's what I don't know, and no one really knows. If you like Richard Duncan's content, and you sort of wished he and I's conversation would go on. Well, he is a regular guest here, so I expect him back. But if you're telling yourself, I want more of his content and I want to make it visual at the same time to help really bring this to life, well, visit RichardDuncanEconomics.com hit the subscribe button and get 50% off. That's five zero, 50% off with the discount code. GRE. Happy Veterans Day. Until next week, I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.   Speaker 2  52:17   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice, please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively you   Keith Weinhold  52:46   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, getricheducation.com

Get Rich Education
526: Make America Rich Again, Coaching Call

Get Rich Education

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 4, 2024 56:57


Keith discusses the inefficiency of compound interest in wealth building, advocating for compound leverage through real estate investments. He illustrates how a $100,000 investment in a $500,000 property at a 6% annual return can yield much higher returns due to leverage (see the math below). He also explains how mortgage rates are influenced by long-term bond yields and discusses the benefits of real estate over stocks. A coaching call with GRE Investment Coach Naresh highlights the process of investing in real estate, including financing considerations and the role of a coach in guiding investors.  Here's the math on a 5:1 leveraged RE return at a 6% appreciation rate:  Year One: $500,000 x 1.06 = $530,000. Subtract $400K debt = $130,000 equity Year Two: $530,000 x 1.06 = $561,800. Subtract $400K debt = $161,800 equity Year Three: $561,800 x 1.06 = $595,508. Subtract $400K debt = $195,508 equity. GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREmarketplace.com/Coach Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/526 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai   Keith Weinhold  0:00   Keith, welcome to GRE I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, make America rich again in play numbers. You'll get a fresh take today on how compound interest does not build wealth and compound leverage does. Then you'll learn about how bond market moves affect mortgage rates. Finally, you get to listening to a call between one of our investment coaches and a GRE follower today on Get Rich Education.   Speaker 1  0:33   Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com   Corey Coates  1:19   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  1:35   Welcome to GRE from Altoona, Pennsylvania to Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and this is get rich education, the voice of real estate investing Since 2014 you're going to hear some things that you've never heard before today, and some listeners tell us that GRE is unlike any real estate information they've ever heard. And with what I want to tell you today, well, again, it's information that I've never heard anywhere else, either. So what I endeavor to regularly do for you here on this show is to tell you what I wish I had known sooner make America rich again, nope, that is not my presidential campaign platform for my run in the year 2032, or anything like that. It is this, don't get your money to work for you. In fact, if you want real wealth, don't work for money or get your money to work for you. Don't make either of those things the focus anyway, avoid growing your money through compound interest, because that's not the formula either. Now you and I have covered that ground before, if you're new here, and that material makes you say what you might have thought things like that were the holy grail of wealth building, nope, and today, for the first time on the show, in over 500 episodes, I'm gonna put some real numbers to that to show you exactly what I mean. Let me explain to you how to invest to truly win in a way that you've never seen in your life. You're not gonna improve only your life, but generationally, your entire family's life. At your job, you are like a dock worker. You're trying to pull your boat up to the dock so that you can then make a short, easy hop onto the boat and get away. And you'll learn how I did that and how I would begin investing today if I could start all over again. Now, after I had graduated college and had a job, I used to think, Well, yeah, I'll invest through a 401K in mutual funds, because it's easy and it's just deducted right from my paycheck. Well, when you do the easy thing in life, there's usually not much reward. And back then, I thought, Well, why would I invest in real estate anyway? I mean, a stock and mutual fund return on investment is about 10% over time. Real Estate is more like five or 6% plus real estate has all these maintenance hassles, and in the stock market, your 10% return enjoys compound interest. I don't really know how that works over on the real estate side, all right. Well, let's look at some numbers with how this would all work anyway. Here we go with $100,000 invested in stocks at 10% after year one, it's grown to $110,000 in year two, you don't just have 120k you've got more, because the 10% compounds on the 110 10k so now in year two, you've got $121,000 and I bet that you don't see any problem in this yet, right? Hey, things are going great. And after year three, you're up to $133,100 All right, so there we are. You begin with 100k and after three years, you've got then $33,100 in profit, your gain, on top of your 100k All right, that's what compound interest does. Well, let's take a closer look at that. $33,100 first, okay, I could attack it a slew of reasonable ways, if I wanted to, we could subtract out the constant drags on that of inflation, emotion, taxes, fees and volatility. But let's just take one volatility. We smoothed out our 10% return saying that you achieved it every year in that example there, we know that does not happen in the real world. Stocks are volatile, and the more volatile the return, the lower the return. Because instead, if you were up 20% one year and then down 20% the next year, which stocks are known to do you're not even you're down your 100k would instead go up to 120k in year one and down to 96k in year two, a loss, like I've told you before, that right there is the difference between what's called the compounded annual growth rate and the average annual return. But we'll just leave stocks number right there. We'll say that despite all five drags, volatility, of which is just one, the compound interest still somehow gave you this $33,100 gain. That number is about to look really disappointing, and this is about to get really interesting.    Let's compare that to real estate, and we'll say that despite that, it only returns, say, 6% per year here. Well, how do most people buy real estate? They do it with other people's money. OPM, remember earlier that I talked to you about how you don't create wealth from getting only your money to work for you, like you did in the stock example. Yeah, here's how you ethically use other people's money to buy real estate. When you invest 100k in a rental property. That's your 20% down. You get to borrow 80% from the bank, 400k so now you control a $500,000 property. And here's the thing, its entire value appreciates a 6% all 500k not only your 100k invested, yes, so you're now about to get the return on both your 100k and all of the bank's money. 400k that you get to leverage returns from both are about to go to you. Oh, yes, let's run these numbers, instead of compound interest, you're about to get compound leverage, using those borrowed funds to amplify your own return. So with your 100k invested on a 500k property at 6% after year one, you've got 130k after year two, $161,800 and after year three, $195,508 why? Because, again, your 6% return was accumulating on the 500k property. All right, so after year three, with this $195,508 you're gonna subtract out your 100k down payment, and your gain is $95,508 All right, that is compared to your compound interest based stock and mutual fund return of just $33,100 if you'd like to see the math for that leverage. Return that is in the show notes. Look for it there. See, by employing other people's money, it's like when you were a kid and in the evening, your body cast a shadow five times taller than you actually were. That's how leverage allows you to magnify returns and appear to be a bigger, taller investor than you actually are. Yes, your 20% down payment on real estate gave you five to one leverage amplifying your returns. If you listen to the show for a while, you understand that, but you never saw that numeric dollar per dollar comparison like we just did. So after three years, how about 33k profit on stocks and 95k on real estate? Real estate returns almost three times as much. But in reality, it's probably more than a 3x win for real estate because you're 95 Gain over three years in real estate, equity is actually going to be higher, because your tenant is also paying down your principal balance on your 400k loan every single month for 36 months in this three year example, if your property is vacant, 10% of the time they paid it down for you 33 out of 36 months, and as we know, at the same time, inflation pays down your loan even faster than the tenant does. Real Estate is also more tax advantaged than your stock gain, because you never have to pay capital gains tax on your 95k profit with a 1031 tax deferred exchange. And on the downside for real estate, upon owning the property, you will need to pay closing costs of maybe four to 5% of the purchase price. All right now, in this 95k gain for real estate versus 33k gain for stocks, I did some rounding there. Yes, even if your stock return was in a 401 K type fund, well, you would still have to either pay the tax now with a Roth or later with a traditional retirement plan. So you're still paying the tax. The higher real estate return is also more likely because real estate is less volatile than stocks, and I've got more vitally important things to tell you about how you just grew wealth about three times faster with leverage than with compound interest. And yes, this is exactly the kind of stuff I wish I knew when I had just started out. Now if you think you don't have the money for a down payment. I'll get into that. But first, a big review here, and I've woven threads of this review through previous episodes. First, don't focus on getting only your money to work for you. And second, stress compound leverage, not compound interest. Optimize using other people's money. And when you take out a loan for rental property, you get to use other people's money three ways at the same time, three different entities, you're using their money. Number one, it's for the bank's loan, like we discussed. Number two, you're using the government's money for generous tax incentives. I only touched on one of the tax incentives. And then, thirdly, you are using the tenants money to pay down your mortgage loan and pay all of your properties operating expenses, like maintenance repairs, insurance, property taxes and pay your property manager to make this all mostly passive for you. I don't manage any of my own properties. I think you already know that. And on top of that, hopefully you'll have a little residual income after expenses every month, your monthly profit of rent income minus expenses, that is called cash flow. And when I talk about doing this ethically, use an experienced property manager. Never get called a slumlord. Provide housing that's clean, safe, affordable and functional, okay, some really core, enduring, GRE mantras in there. But what if real estate goes down in value? It's not common, but I did have it happen to me around 2008 we won't even talk about what happens when stocks go down in value, but when real estate values went down in 2008 it just didn't matter that my rental property's values were temporarily suppressed because my rents were higher than my expenses, I was still making income each month off the property. That's a good way to own property, if you can. I'm not motivated to sell an asset. I mean, are you motivated to sell an asset that's paying you income every month during a time when it's capital value dip, so probably not. And by the way, there is nothing new or esoteric here. You just haven't had it explained to you in this way before. This 33k from stocks and mutual funds versus 95k from real estate you haven't seen that before. This is simply buying houses with plain vanilla 30 year fixed rate loans, and it's just simply long term buy and hold. This is not flipping, as I like to say. This is not day trading. This is decade trading, as you continue along in your real estate journey, keep stacking more properties, and it's gonna go faster than you think, because you've got this power of compound leverage, and your tenant also pays you income that you can use toward buying the next property, and then as a backup, you have that trapped equity that keeps accumulating in your property. And the reason this goes faster than you think is that you can also release that equity by removing it with a completely tax free event, a cash out refinance, all while you still hold onto the asset and you. Use the untrapped equity to put down payments on more property. Now, what if you think you don't have the money to start or get as big as you want, as fast as you want? Well, I've met a lot of people that when they understand this compound leverage concept, they withdraw their 401 K funds, pay a penalty and pay the taxes, and they put those funds toward real estate. I mean, you would owe taxes on it anyway. Now that part may or may not be ready for you, but you know, once I understood this, what I did is I stopped contributing to my 401K and I instead got into compound leverage. Yeah, this is how to make America rich again. Now, what if you think you don't have 100k to invest in property like we did in our example? Well, there are perfectly good $200,000 properties at GREmarketplace.com where you could make a $40,000 down payment. But you still might be thinking, I'll just say that the real estate market is just really competitive now, and that your small down payment maybe it can't compete with a deep pockets all cash offer, because all cash buyers can close really fast, but no your small down payment can still compete with all cash offers, because Some sellers don't want a quick sale for either tax reasons or myriad lifestyle reasons that they might have, I like to say that using debt is like using fire if it's misallocated, like with 23% credit card debt, that's what the average credit card interest rate is right now, 23% well that can burn down your financial house. But if you know how to use the debt in a controlled manner, like from income property that others paid down for you, oh, that fire is contained in a stove, and that fire or fireplace will heat your home. If I could start all over again with what I know now, it would be to embrace good debt, because tenants pay down this debt for me, so use it as leverage to build a real estate empire. Think of it this way, besides the employer match, every dollar that you lock inside a 401K is $1 that you cannot use to leverage other people's money. Back when I started investing, I should not have contributed to a conventional retirement plan beyond the employer match myself. So I used leverage to pull my boat up to the dock more than three times faster and escape the day job when I was still young enough to enjoy it. And once you know the difference, why would you want to do life any other way? You might have heard that real estate has made more people wealthy than any other investment today.    You've learned how now, sometimes it is hard to stop and turn off a mindset if the same thing has been believed for a long time. I think we've all experienced that. If you believe something for a long time, well then it's hard to change your mind on that, and you might even fight and defend that core belief. That could be the case here with me, denigrating the wealth building capability of compound interest. And if you're still wrestling with that yourself, a great compliment where I discuss this more in depth and in a different way, can be found on an episode that I did earlier this year that is on GRE Podcast, episode 507 episode 507 is called compound interest is weak. I'm here to talk to you about things that are really gonna move the meter in your financial life, like what I've covered with you so far, and what I'm gonna help you learn next. You know, there's just some information out there, even real estate information, it's just not that useful. Say, for example, mortgage purchase applications were down from last week, but yet they were up month over month. Well, that might matter to certain sub industries, but it doesn't move the meter in your life with how you're going to actionably build wealth.    Hey, before we move on, I want to give a major shout out to this show's long time, steady, capable sound engineer, Vedran. He just hit the 10 year mark of filling that important role for us here. Yet 10 years almost since the inception of this show. He's been with us since November of 2014 so since about episode five, and he's edited every single episode since then, and he recently told me that he looks forward to the next 10. Congratulations, Vedran. Also, thanks to you, the listener, the follower. Here, we held three GRE live virtual events this year, webinars. You. You are really taking action. Back in June, we broke a record with 307 registrants for that event. And then our latest event that was held about 10 days ago saw another record broken, 528 of you registering, and I say thanks, because you make me feel good. You're showing that I'm helping make a difference in your life. And now maybe you're thinking these events or this platform, it's getting too well known, and if you show up to a future event that you might not get to ask a question, no, that's not the case. Not everyone that registers shows up for the event live, and then you can ask a lot of your own questions with a personal free coaching call as well. I'll let you listen into a coaching call later on, today's show. In fact, now I've shared with you a few times before that changes to mortgage rates don't follow changes in the federal funds rate that Jerome Powell and the FOMC said. I've also told you that mortgage rates closely track long term bond yields, but let me tell you about what all that really means, and this is going to help you understand and perhaps even predict the future direction of mortgage rates. In fact, it's unusual. You know, the largest market in the world is not the real estate market, it's not the stock market, it's the bond market. And What's unusual is here we are on episode 526, and we've really never discussed the bond market. Well, you're probably aware that a month and a half ago, the Fed dropped interest rates by a half point. Their next decision is in just three days. Now I don't think they should drop rates again, though they could. That's because since the rate cut, GDP and job growth have been strong. That's why I don't think they should do it. I mean, rates usually get cut to help a wounded economy, so why lower them now? I mean, recessions usually see rate cuts. But here's what even fewer people understand when the Fed cut rates a month and a half ago by a half point, why have mortgage rates soared since then? They were about 6.1% and then the Fed made their cut, and mortgage rates recently spiked up to 6.9% well, many still feel that the long term trend for all types of interest rates is lower. But you know for one thing, rates are really hard to predict. The Fed only controls short term rates. Long term rates, like the 30 year and 15 year mortgage are tied most closely to the yield on the 10 year treasury note, and here after I'll just call that the 10 year All right, so what is this and what controls it? Well, don't let that name intimidate you. This is get rich education. So let's break down each word yield on the 10 year treasury note. Yield just means interest rate. 10 years is the period of time that this loan is made for the duration the US Treasury issues them so they receive the loan and a note is an IOU. It was also known as a bond. That is what's held by the person or the entity that loaned the money, the person that loaned this money to the Treasury. It could be you yourself, or it could be a foreign nation. So you hold on to this note because you made the loan to the Treasury. That's the breakdown of every word of the phrase the yield on the 10 year treasury note. Okay, so to say it a different way, if you hold a 10 year treasury note, that is basically your receipt, your proof that you made a 10 year long IOU to our federal government and it is going to pay you an interest rate known as a yield. All right, that is the simplest explanation I can give. Well, a month and a half ago when Jerome Powell cut short term rates, the 10 year was 3.7% at that time, and at the beginning of last week, it was up to 4.2% that's the highest since July. And again, 30 year mortgage rates most closely track the 10 year all right, as you and I sort of hold hands through this together next, let's ask what made them rise. And you know, some think this is harder to understand than trying to understand why YouTube viewers constantly fall for ludicrous housing price crash videos. Okay, but relax. This is easy. When the economy gets hot, all these things tend to rise in value, real estate, stocks and also productivity rises. Employment rises. Is an inflation that tends to rise as well. Because a 10 year investor needs a real return above the rate of inflation, this yield must rise as well. That's it. You got it. You got it. So therefore, when a rosy jobs report comes out, the 10 year tends to go up. When a strong retail sales report comes out, the 10 year yield tends to go up or a high flying CPI is released, the 10 year tends to go up. And therefore, because it rose in the past month, investors have expectations for a strong economy and more persistent inflation. So conversely, expect both the yield on the 10 year treasury note and the 30 year mortgage rate to fall when the economic outlook gets more dim. It's important to understand that, like a lot of things in the stock market, yields on the 10 year they tend to be more of a reflection of future economic expectations than the current economy. And this should be pretty easy for you to remember, because when you think about it, that makes sense. Since you've lent out your money to the federal government for 10 years. I mean, you're really interested in what that 10 year future is going to look like. So yes, though this is somewhat less exciting than watching a motorcycle jump over the Grand Canyon now that you listen closely for the last few minutes. Congratulations. Now you know that the 10 year can tell you both what investors expect to happen in the future, and can tell you the direction of 30 year mortgage rates. And, yeah, I mean, this is just more the type of material that I wish someone had explained to me sooner, in a way, just like that. And you know, are you interested in doing things that at the end, they make you say, You know what, I just got 1% better this week. I mean, think about the kind of person you'll be if you make yourself just 1% better each week. Now you better understand how leverage beats compound interest and what makes mortgage rates move. Go out and vote tomorrow as far as next, listen into one of our GRE investment coaching calls. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get rich education.   Hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine, at Ridge lending group NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start Now while it's on your mind at Ridgelendinggroup.com that's Ridgelendinggroup.com.   your bank is getting rich off of you. The national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings. If your money isn't making 4% you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk, your cash generates up to an 8% return with compound interest, year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% sitting in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25k you keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back. Their decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And I would know, because I'm an investor too, earn 8% hundreds of others are. Text FAMILY to 66866, learn more about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text Family to66866.   Zack Lemaster  29:08   this is rent to retirement. Zach Lemaster, listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.   Keith Weinhold  29:22   Welcome. Back to get rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, there will only ever be one GRE podcast episode five under 26 and you're listening to it. Let's let you listen into a coaching call between GRE investment coach Naresh and GRE follower, Brenda, and then I'll be back to wrap it up at the end.   Naresh Vissa  29:41   hey, Brenda, good to Good to see you after emailing back and forth. Thanks for setting up this call.   Brenda  29:47   Yeah, thanks, Naresh, thanks for setting up time to talk to me.    Naresh Vissa  29:49   Yeah. Well, tell me what made you schedule this call, like, Why did you hit that button saying I want to talk to the real estate investment coach?   Brenda  29:59   Yeah, well, I've seen some of the newsletters that come from GRE I'm familiar with some of the podcasts, but then I had gotten into the newsletters, and then I saw that there was an option for a free consultation to talk to you. And I thought, Well, I'm not sure what this really means, or what we talk about, or how you can help me, as far as, like, the vision, or how do I set my goals? Or what is it exactly that I would do with you with GRE, like, what kind of consultation Do you provide?   Naresh Vissa  30:29   Yeah, well, so that's you came to the right place. So let me tell you a little bit about GRE, a little bit about me, who we are, how we operate. So get rich. Education is an education company. As you know, you listen to the podcast, you read the newsletter. It's free. The podcast is free. The newsletter is free. You can go to our website, read our blog, go through past podcasts. You can subscribe to our YouTube channel, subscribe to our social media, Tiktok, Instagram, Facebook, X, you name it. That's all free content available for you, and this service, the real estate investment coaching, is completely free of charge. I know that sounds kind of crazy, but you'll never pay as a dime. I'm here to help you throughout and along your real estate investment journey. Think of me as a super connector, someone who can introduce you to all the right people, whether it's specific markets you want to invest in. Providers. There, wholesalers, flippers, lenders, appraisers, although your lender will take care of the appraiser part, if you need a second lender, financing, CPAs, attorneys, anything at all, just come to me and I can introduce you to the right people, or at least point you in the right direction. I'll try my best to do it 100% of the time. I don't, or I should say, I don't, have answers 100% of the time, but I do have answers most of the time, and I can forward you and refer you, point you in the right direction. So think of me as a super connector. Think of me as your silent partner in deals, because I get any equity in the deals who you don't have to pay anything to think of me as an advisor, a consultant. Again, this is a completely free service. There's you're not going to get like, a bill in the mail saying, Hey, you talked to Naresh five times, so you owe us $1,000 for that. Now, there's none of that. So the most common question I get after telling people this or, like, well, then, I mean, you can't be doing this for free. Like, why are you doing great? Like, like, yeah, what's the catch here? And they also have, I mean, I'm sure you're wondering, how do you make money? Well, if you listen to the podcast, if you go to our website, you'll see advertisements, sponsorships. We are paid marketing fees, advertising fees from partners. So you listen to the podcast, I'm sure you hear many of those commercials. We make our money on the back end, so we can keep services like this and our newsletter and our podcast free on the front note, like I said, GRE is not is an education company. We are not a broker or a wholesaler or a flipper or a builder or an agency or a realtor service or any of that a brokerage, where we're not of that, we're purely education, education based through our educational content or free educational coaching, which I offer too. So that's what you are. Got it .we work with all those other companies. So we can refer you to all those other types of companies that can help you on your real estate investment journey. But we are not any of those. Now me, personally, I am an investor myself. I own eight properties in southeastern United States. I got started in 2017 I bought my first property in a single family home. That was rehab. Back then, rehabs are very hot. That was what you should get in, that what made sense to get into. And I scaled pretty quickly. I went from one to eight in a matter of it's been seven years since I bought that first property, but I actually went from one to eight in a matter of more, like two and a half years, I just kind of went so I bought, like I said, southeastern United States, bought my last property in 2020 I'm saving up for my next property because I personally now only, like new construction, I rehabs have their place, certainly For certain investors. And at the time, I got six rehabs, rehab properties from 2017 to 2019 so I personally, though, am now saving up because new construction is more expensive than than rehab. So I'm saving up for my next real estate property, which is most likely going to be a new construction. So that's a little bit about my investing background. I've been a real estate coach Since 2019 came in 2021 to GRE and have run the coaching side ever since. So that's a little bit about me on the real estate side, on the coaching side. Now, my background is not in real. Real Estate. I like, I said, I got in 2017 before that, and I still do work in tech. So I worked in tech from 2000 really, from 2005 and still do work in tech. So it was through my tech work that I got involved in real estate, because I would do back end tech work for real estate companies. And doing that work, I was like, Oh, I started learning about real estate, and then I said, huh, if this doesn't seem hard or difficult. And I also got an investment coach who helped me, like I said, with that competitor, they also had investment coaches or investment counselors. So I had a coach who helped me a little bit, but that's what the coaches are for there to help investors like me, especially newbie investors, or even veteran investors. They're there to help investors with the networking part, with the who are offering the best deals, special deals, special interest rates, who's honest, who's dishonest? That's what I'm here to do. So that's a little bit about GRE About me, about my background, how our coaching program works. So now, Brenda, it's all about you. I want to hear I'm sure you have tons of questions based on what I just said, but before you ask those questions, I'm just going to start out with, how much cash do you have ready to invest? Because really, I could be of most service if you're looking to invest, otherwise, I can't really be of much service. So how much cash do you have ready to go to invest? And then I'll answer, I'll say something about that, and then I'll let you ask whatever questions you want.    Brenda 36:35   Sounds good. Just a cash ready for deployment is 100,000 but I'm assuming that doesn't all have to go to one property, right? Or depending on the property?   Naresh Vissa  36:46   Yeah, so, so is that lick? So what I should have clarified my question as how much liquid cash do you have on not like a 401, K, or properties that you have to cash out refinance, or it's just if you today, if you were to take a property and and you had cash ready to do so be $100,000 Yeah, correct. Okay, so, so a few things that's very good, because with 100,000 that gives you optionality. You can either go for a rehab property, and we have rehab property right now. Our hottest provider is in Memphis, Tennessee, and you can get a rehab property. Worst case scenario, let's just say the property, the average property, is about $100,000 and so you just put down a 25% down payment. So let's just give or take, let's say $30,000 I tell our investors. I say, Look, if you want to buy your first property, or Yeah, your first rehab property, you need at least $50,000 cash, liquid in the bank, ready to go. That's just because you want that cushion. You don't want to put all your eggs in one basket. So I say, if you want a rehab property, you need 50,000 if you want a new construction, single family 100,000 because the new constructions are going to cost you at least $240,000 at least. So if you take 25% of that, plus closing costs and cushion and everything, just if you want to be a good investor, you have to be disciplined. And you have to be disciplined enough to be able to save the 50,000 or the $100,000 if you want to make it as a real estate investor. So 50,000 for a rehab property, 100,000 for a new construction. If you want a duplex, you need, I say, a new construction duplex, which is probably our hottest new construction asset class right now in Florida, 150,000 for a new construction. Down payment or not. Down Payment task, ready to go for a new construction duplex, because those are selling for about 490,000 give or pay. So it's 50,000 for rehab that you should have in the bank. 100,001 in the bank for a new construction, single family. 150,000 for a duplex. Anything beyond that, then we can talk. You know, later you wanted a squad or something else, but that's generally what I say. And I tell, I tell investors. I say, Look, if you only have $30,000 in the thing, let's connect after you get up, because I don't want you putting all that 30,000 into a rehabbed property, whereas, who knows, maybe the economy might go into a recession and it stays vacant for six months. I don't want you to have to go through that. So let's stick to those numbers. So you said you have 100,000 so you have options. You can you can get either a rehab property or you can get a new construction. So it's completely up to you. It's about your new construction. Single family, it's completely up to you. I personally, I, like I said, I started out with the rehabs, and then I've kind of graduated up to new construction. God, they the lowest risk you can take with 100,000 is by starting with a. Be just a low price rehab where you put in $30,000 and full, you know, down payment burden, costs, everything else you put that, you know, 30 grand, if it first property, you put that 25 to 30 grand in, and you treat that as a learning experience. And you go through the experience, and if everything goes smoothly, then you can buy the second property, and you can decide whether, hey, do I want to continue with this rehab, or I'd still have enough capital for the new construction single payer. But I would start small. If you're new, if you're an advanced veteran investor who has six figure, well into the six figures in the bank, ready to go. I tell those people. I say, hey, let's just go for new construction. Let's go for the new construction. Single family. Let's go for the duplexes. Some of them have 700 $800,000 in some cases, a million dollars plus. I say, hey, let's let's just go for the quad to the construction four Plex. The incentives are great, etc, etc. So in your case, 100,000 you certainly have choices. And what I'll do after this call is, well, first I want to hear, based on what I said, What are your thoughts on anything, whether it's renew, construction versus rehab, and then what I brought up earlier about coaching?    Brenda  41:12   Yeah, I actually thank you, Naresh, I really like what you said about starting small. I have purchased two single family homes in the past, their rentals, but I never went through a coach. I just kind of did it on my own, and luckily, things worked out. But certainly having a coach and starting out small, just to kind of go through the process, it's really helpful. Here's the situation that I think is just a little bit different, and I know that this would probably be something that I talked to like a lender about. But in your experience, I actually just came from an 18 year career. Actually, I was in tech myself, but I'm now transitioned from a corporate w2 into more, but 1099, what's classified as like a independent company, you know, type of income, what has been your experience with other clients that transitioned from that type? Is it easier? Is it harder to obtain loans? Is there going to be different requirements? 25% does that still stand?    Naresh Vissa  42:13   Yeah. So I could give you a full, you know, lecture on this, or something called the housing expense ratio and something called the total obligation ratio. I'm not going to get into those details, because the lenders, I can refer you to lenders, and they can explain all that, and those ratios mean a lot to getting you pre qualified. But what I will say is, unfortunately, if you are 1099, you are at a disadvantage, because it's not steady, consistent income, unless you can show two years of steady, consistent income. I mean, really is the last for your last two years of tax return. So if it's a new 1099, gig, yep, you're gonna have to wait until you have two years of consistent high income. If you've been doing it for a while, then send your last two years. And if it's, you know, if it's looking good, then, then you'll get approved. The other option, and this is, this is not a personal question or anything, but it married couples can go together on one loan. So if this actually helped me out a lot, because my wife is a high income earner, and I have my own business, and my business does pretty well, but if you're 1099 as as you know, there are all sorts of things you can do with your tax return that are completely legal and to where you pay yourself as little as possible, so that you can cut your income tax. So in any case, that's like 1099 workers are a disadvantage for mortgage because all they care about is your pay stub, your you know, how much income did you have? So there were times when I put my wife on the mortgage and she's got a high income, and so you can put a spouse on there, and you can both do it together. Now you're allowed 10 loans per person, so if you want a spouse go on a mortgage that counts, even if it's for one mortgage, one property, that counts as one for each of you. So for two working husband and wife. For a couple where both spouses are working with good income, I say look, you'll want one spouse to do 10 properties and another spouse to do a completely different 10 mortgages. That way you can do 20 combined. Now, if you do it together, then you'll only be able to buy 10 combined because you're older than so 1099, workers. We get that question a lot, and it actually it is a problem, because the standards changed after 2008 so either wait the two years and have your consistent records to show high income, or if you already have it right now, then you can get approved.   Brenda  44:54   Got it. Got it. This would be for just conventional loans. What about other loan products? Like, I think I've heard of the DSCR loan where maybe just the rental property would cover, you know, part of the I'm not sure, like, I guess you're guaranteeing that the property will make enough money to cover the payment of the loan.   Naresh Vissa  45:12   Yeah, DSCR and loans are hard to get approved. Really, what I should do is introduce you to some of our lending partners. If you're interested. DSCR is meant more so for people who have utilized you want to use those 10 loans first, so because if you go you're going to have a higher interest rate if you go with the deal. So those DSCR loans, or Portfolio loans, are meant for people who have used their 10. Their spouse has used their 10. They've got capital low rolling in their ultra high net worth. So they're fine, okay, just get me another loan. I need the tax benefit. I need the tax break. I'm fine paying a 10% interest. So they'll go for a portfolio loan or a vsdr loan. In your case, first property, your first investment property, first turnkey we want to go for a loan.   Brenda  45:58   Got it makes sense. And then another question, so this was about the financing. But another question that I meant to ask earlier is, I know you mentioned, like, you know, I am not like a realtor or anything like that, but how does it work? Like, I'm think about when I'm purchasing a home, personally, I kind of say, hey, I want to three bedrooms, four bedrooms, this many baths. Like, how does that work with you? Like, do I give you criteria of what I'm looking for, or, you know, based on my goals? Do you kind of craft a plan? How does that work?   Naresh Vissa  46:29    Yeah, so I actually sent you an email just right before this call it. I think you got the email, and it includes a link to about 20% of our inventory. It's not all of our inventory. That inventory is just there. To get you started to see the types of properties that we have available. We have some constructions and the markets that we cover, again, it's only about 20% of the inventory. If you go to our GRE marketplace, you can see all of the markets that we cover. Your biggest source will be, I send out emails. So your biggest source will be, if I email you, I'll email you like a property. It'll be, Hey, I just came across this deal. It's like, it's my VIP email list. So you'll get my, you know, VIP emails, and that's going to be your, your best source. You also get Keith white holds newsletter, which promotes properties from time to time and and we only promote the best. We there are hundreds of properties we can promote. We only distill it down to the best of the best. So don't think, oh, like, there might be another property that narration knows about. Now we promote through our social media, through my email list, through Keith's newsletter, through the podcast, through the webinars, the best of the best. So that's the best way to to find out,   Brenda  47:49   got it your inventory or what you currently right,   Naresh Vissa  47:52    and with your permission, I can add you to my VIP email list. If it's okay, yeah, that would be cool. I'll go ahead and add you, and you'll start getting those emails in real time. I only send out an email maybe once every three weeks, so I really only want to send the best of the best. I want to waste people's time.   Brenda  48:07   Great. So what if you do send me an email and I'm like, Yeah, I love it. I think this is fits exactly what I'm looking for. Do I email you back? Do I contact you? Like, how do we stay in contact?    Naresh Vissa  48:18   So email is the best form of communication, because in real estate and business in general, we want documentation of everything. We don't want any miscommunications. So if you see something you like, email me. I'm available. You have my phone number. You can text me, you can call me, you can email me. I'm very accessible, but email is preferred, because that way it's in writing, and I'll know exactly what you want, the address, everything. So let's say you see a property that you like from an email that you get from Keith or from me, and you email me to say, hey, I'm interested. What are next steps? I will get you in touch with the actual like I said, we're just an education company. I'll get you in touch with the actual builder or the broker or the agent on the property, and they'll be able to answer way more questions than I can answer way more and that that's for anything. If your question is about financing, I can get you in touch with several good, low rate lenders, and they can answer all your questions about financing. Your question is CPA Tax stuff. I can get we have, uh, several good contacts who can help you out there as well.    Brenda  49:20   Got it, got it. So then what, what does our communication look like from there? Like, do if I say yes, I want it, then you get me in contact with them, and then I kind of work with whoever it is that has this property. And then hopefully we just close on the property. And that's it, right? Am I understanding that correctly?   Naresh Vissa  49:40   Sure? So, so all correctly? Yeah, I'll refer you over to them, and they will, they will take care of you. Should copy me on all emails that way. Okay, what's going on? Copy, you remember, I'm your coach. I'm here to help you, like it's free, so copy to an email so I know what's going on. If there's a problem, I can jump in. In many cases, I hold a leverage over a lot of these. People, if a problem happens, I can step in and say, Hey, treat her better. Or, you know, you should waive this cost, or whatnot. So copy, because the people who get into trouble are the people who didn't copy me on the emails. And many, many time, time just goes by, and then they come with their problem as they Hey, if you came to me a year ago, I could have actually helped you with this. Now, the statutes expired, and it's, it's a complete mess. So always, even after you're done posing on the property and you have a tenant in there and just copy me on me.    Brenda  50:30   Got it. Okay,  So kind of bring you along the journey. Okay, so let's say I'm at the end, like, do these providers help me? I'm assuming in some of these cases, you've mentioned places that are far from where I live. So do they help provide additional resources, like, who's going to manage my property, or who's going to find me a tenant? Like, could they help me with that?   Naresh Vissa  50:51   Absolutely. So the entire point of GRE of this investment coaching program, the entire point is so that you can become what's called a laptop landlord. You can literally live free and have just take a step back and have your properties run on their own. So the idea is not for you to invest down the street and become a property manager and a landlord down the street. It's you can be anywhere in the world. Buy properties anywhere. Like I said, I live in Florida, but by Prop, I've never visited any of my properties. I've never met a tenant. So that's what you want to do, and that's what we help people do. If you want to buy a property across the street and become you can do that yourself. Go through all the loops yourself. We are here to help you invest in Ohio, in Tennessee, in Florida and Texas and all these places that you may not have even visited every other life, but you can still have a very fruitful investment journey. So we set all that up for you, the property management, every all that it's going to be taken care of, so that your hands off. That's why it's called turnkey real estateReal real estate investing.   Brenda  51:56   Got it. Okay, sounds good. And typically, how long does this process take? I mean, I'm sure it's different for everybody, but what can I expect, like from beginning, from when I talk to you, to when hopefully I have a property that I'm signing off on?   Naresh Vissa  52:12    In some cases, it's literally taken two days. In other cases, it's taken there's not even an answer, because people did end up buying Okay, yeah, so, so, yeah, in in the case of, like, our Memphis burr properties, which are rehab properties in Memphis, I recommend that you watch our burr webinar. I can send that to you after this call, if you'd like. But I had people who watched the webinar talk to me. I introduced them that same day to the provider in Memphis. They talk to their provider in Memphis, and then the next day, they pick the property, and the day after that, they sign a contract. Oh, okay, so it's all about the investor. If you're a serious investor, it can be very quick, like me, I was very serious. That's why I scaled. I bought eight and two and a half years, eight properties in two and a half years. Other people, if you want to take your time, it could, you could literally take your time and never buy any and a lot of people are doing that, because in 2019 they said, Oh, you know what, I'm gonna wait. There's gonna be a crash and this and that. And so they waited, they waited, and prices skyrocketed, and now they said, You know what, I'm I'm priced out of the market, so I'm just not gonna invest in real estate anymore.   Brenda  53:16   Yeah, it's that analysis paralysis. I've experienced that. Yeah, yeah, got it. Okay, cool.   Naresh Vissa  53:23   All right. So any other questions?    Brenda  53:25   No, this is really helpful. It's kind of good to know, like, kind of where you step in and kind of where you hand off, and again, the timeline is different for everybody, but it's kind of good to know that I could literally be standing here two days later and have a property if I want. So good.   Naresh Vissa  53:42   Yeah. So as we end this call, next step, so I told you about new construction versus rehab. Are you? Are you interested in both, or leaning towards one or the other? Right now? Just    Brenda  53:54   probably the rehabs, because I think, like what you said, I like the idea of the E step into like, let me see how this process goes first before kind of committing a bigger chunk of capital to something larger. Yeah, I agree.   Naresh Vissa  54:06   Okay, so here's what I'm going to do as next steps. I'm going to send you a link to the webinar we did for our hottest rehab asset class right now, hottest rehab provider out of Memphis. It's the Memphis Burkey webinar. I went ahead and just emailed that to you. So watch that webinar. It will answer like every question imaginable regarding the provider, how they do their process, the properties, everything. So watch that webinar and then shoot me an email after you're done with the webinar on what you're thinking just you can watch webinar today and you want to shoot me an email right after, just let me know what you're thinking, and we can go from there. I think that's would be the next step. Just watch that webinar, and then we'll, we'll reconnect.   Brenda  54:54   Sounds good? Okay, I like that.   Naresh Vissa  54:57   Okay, very good. Well, I sent that link to you, and. And that's about it. If you have no more questions like I said, you can add my phone number to your phone book and feel free to reach out whatever you want.    Brenda  55:07   will do. Thank you so much.    Naresh Vissa  55:09   All right, thank you. It was great.   Keith Weinhold  55:11   Yeah,  I hope that you found that helpful in making America rich again. Namely, you. Of course, no two coaching calls are the same. Some GRE followers will perhaps have more questions than Brenda did. There. We are here to learn your situation. We know the mistakes you've got to avoid, and we can connect you with the best income property for you across the nation. We really filter it down to the best of the best, and besides being a truly free coaching call, we don't try to upsell you to a paid course or anything like that, because we don't even have any product to sell really. So even if you wanted to buy something from GRE, I don't know if you could, maybe unless you buy a GRE logo t shirt from our website or something like that. So keep all of your funds for the property down payment. As far as now, you can book a coaching call at GREmarketplace.com and select the free investment coaching area. Until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.    Speaker 3  56:21   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively,   Keith Weinhold  56:41   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, get rich, education.com  

Get Rich Education
525: Immigration Surge Tightens Housing Demand, How to Avoid Paying State Income Tax

Get Rich Education

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 28, 2024 42:44


Keith highlights the unprecedented surge in immigration and its impact on housing demand. The conversation also covers state income tax policies, noting that nine states have no income tax, and the impact of international tax laws on US citizens abroad.  Immigrants now make up more than 14% of the US population, the highest proportion since 1910. The US is facing a significant housing shortage, with an estimated 4.5 million housing units needed. Housing shortages are expected to continue, with homelessness rates rising by 12% year over year. Learn about the challenges of being a US citizen living abroad and the potential for double taxation. Resources: Connect with Tom's team at WealthAbility for a free consultation on permanently reducing taxes. Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/525 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREmarketplace.com/Coach Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai   Keith Weinhold  0:01   welcome to GRE I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, both an immigrant surge and a big wave of US born residents is tightening housing demand near unprecedented levels. Then we're joined by show regular Tom terrific again, but it's not Tom Brady on how to legally avoid paying state income tax and the fact that if you're from the US, if you move out, you must still pay tax on your worldwide income, plus more tax strategies that you can benefit from today on Get Rich Education.   Speaker 1  0:34   since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show, guess who? Top Selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit getricheducation.com   Corey Coates  1:20   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  1:36   Welcome to GRE from Athens Georgia to Athens, Greece and across 488 nations worldwide. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, get rich education. Founder, Forbes real estate council member, best selling. Author, long time real estate investor and holder of a humble bachelor's degree in geography from a college in Pennsylvania that nobody's ever heard of. It's that time of year where you now have Halloween decorations in your front yard competing hard for space with political campaign signs. What's your HOA gonna do now? Welcome in this slack shot operation right here is the get rich education podcast. I think you know that by now it's episode 525   Brace yourself, immigration has absolutely exploded. I've got the latest numbers on that, and there's a chart recently published in The Wall Street Journal that shows it all legal and illegal. We're a real estate platform, so the question I'm asking is, Where in the heck are we going to house all of these people? In addition to soaring immigration, we'll look at our own domestic US born surging population that are forming households now, and that part might have flown under your radar. This is an urgent issue. All of this isn't just coming. It is already here, this explosion of housing demand, it will indelibly shape both broader society and real estate's supply demand component for decades, it is really approaching the unprecedented we look at net immigration to the US since 2000 it's really these past four years where the numbers have shot up like a rocket through 2020 immigration averaged around 1.2 million people per year, but since 2021 it has more than doubled to around two and a half million net immigrants per year. But the number of illegals arriving among them has gone up as much as 10x starting in 2021 and the overall figures they keep rising. Last year, there were over 3 million immigrants, about three times the total number that we averaged in the first 20 years of this century. So a 3x total net inflow, legal and illegal. And these figures in the Wall Street Journal chart, they are sourced by the CBO. Now you might think that the immigrants that did not enter legally could eventually get deported, but some of them that are already living and working here, gained something called Temporary Protected Status that keeps them here. Well, our central question remains, Where in the heck are we going to house all of these immigrants in a nation of almost three 40 million people? Do you have any idea what our foreign born population is up to now, okay, so not the descendants of those people, just the foreign born population here now, out of the 340 million total US population, any guess? Venture a guess. Last year, the US foreign born population reached 47.8 million. And that figure 47 point 8 million, that is five times more than in 19 75x Do you even realize that's almost double the population of the entire continent of Australia, now crammed into the states. That's how many immigrants, 47.8 million is. It's also the same as the population of all of Spain. That's another way of saying it all in the US today. And by the way, that is my geography degree at work, right there. Hey, the geography muscle is one that I just don't get to flex enough. Immigrants now make up more than 14% of the population. That is one in seven Americans. And that proportion, right there is the most since 1910, per Pew Research. Well, where are the immigrants from? Alright? Before I get into that, if we go back about 60 years, immigrant growth accelerated after Congress made changes to US immigration laws in 1965 that was a key year before 1965 the law favored immigrants from Northern and Western Europe, and it mostly barred immigration from Asia, all right, Well, so here in modern times, where are immigrants from? Mexico is the top country in 2022, 10.6, million immigrants living in the US were born there. That is almost a quarter of all immigrants. And then the next largest origin groups in order are those from India, China, the Philippines, and then El Salvador. All right, so there are a lot of new immigrants here, like a demographic shock wave that's going to drive the demand for housing. But there's way more to this housing crunch story. Combine this nascent immigration influx along with America's own high birth rate years. And this is something that you might not be aware of, though, what I just talked about that might have been somewhat informative to you. You probably had some idea that immigration is higher now, because it's been in the news cycle for a few years here, but something that you probably don't know. And yes, fertility rates are down today, but there was a boom of US born residents from the years 1990 to 2010 and then you might say, well, so what 1990 to 2010 that was in the past? But no, actually, it is just the beginning, because when it comes to housing, it has less to do with the birth year. Currently, what you have to do is add perhaps 25 or 35 years to that birth year, because that's the age of when that person tends to start their own household. And the average age of today's first time homebuyer is 35 to 36 years old. Well, the US is peak birth year occurred in 2007 then adds 35 or so to it. And that means that, on average, they will buy their first home in the early 2040s and a lot of them were going to start renting in the 2020s and 2030s So suffice to say, a lot more Americans will need homes. Well, what else will those high birth years from 1990 to 2010 mean now and into the future? Realize that over 13,000 Americans are turning 35 every single day, both now and years in to the future, record highs. Yes, every single day, just another demographic figure that's on the rise, and there are deaths to account for as well. But the population aging into home ownership is projected to exceed the population aging out like with deaths for a long time, this will pump housing demand. The US has about 144 million housing units today, and we are going to need more housing of all types. Well, between all the fresh immigration I discussed and this US born surge, you've indubitably got the recipe for a ridiculous amount of demographic driven housing demand. And you know, maybe over the past few years, at times, you or some of your friends or family, they've wondered why housing prices have risen fast, why rents have risen fast, and why? Even a tripling of mortgage rates couldn't stop it. It could only slow it down. It's because of this demand that is just coming, and it's going to keep on coming from both the US born demographic surge and an immigrant surge. And here's the thing, as we know this is all amidst a still lackluster US housing supply today, so greater demand, yet still a meager supply. Zillow estimates that we're still four and a half million housing units short, and the housing deficit is growing, although other outlets have estimates that, you know, they really are all over the place. These estimates as to how great the shortage is, 3 million is probably closer to a good amalgamation of how severe the housing shortage is, all right. Well, how do we reduce the housing deficit? We need to start more construction, but it had its recent peak in 2022 and it's fallen since then, in single family homes, because builders faced higher interest rates then and new apartment building starts, they have fallen too. And two years ago we had a lot of apartment building starts, actually. And as you drive through major cities today, you might still see cranes in the air. You still see a lot of active apartment building construction, actually, but more of those projects began two years ago. They began to freeze as interest rates rose, and now they've just got to complete what they've already begun. It can be two years from an apartment construction start to a completion. So as some of these complete, there will be some absorption time there on apartments. But the starts are way down on apartments. This year, we should have at least double the number of apartment starts being started than what we have now. So this sets us up for more future shortages, regulation and zoning. We know that that slows down building for most any housing type, single family, homes, apartments, condos, whatever it is. And nimbyism is a condition that's especially pervasive in the construction of new apartment buildings. Neighbors don't perceive new single family homes as a threat in their neighborhood like they do apartments, whether that's warranted or not. That's how people feel. That's the sentiment. That's the type of neighbor that shows up at a public meeting and speaks out against new apartment buildings. So to summarize what you've learned so far, it's really the confluence of four housing factors coming together here, two of them for higher demand and two for lower supply. The two for higher demand are more immigrants and a surge of US born people from 1990 to 2010 that are just starting to get old enough to need their own place. That's the higher demand side. And then the two factors on the paltry supply side are both a lack of current supply and not enough building for the future. Either it is an increasingly dire situation, and it can even be in your face. Actually. How is it in your face? Well, it's one reason that you see more homeless people on the street in your nearest city, although you might see more US born homeless than you do immigrant homeless. HUD tells us that the homelessness rate has jumped 12% year over year. That's the fastest homelessness increase rate they've ever reported. I talked to you about that before, and I'm waiting for HUD to release their new number in December. They released that annually. You know, amidst this demand, supply imbalance, in fact, anymore, let's look at it this way. Let's flip the script. Consider what could possibly stop insatiable US housing demand from exceeding supply for decades. And when you do, when you think about what could stop that, it starts to get absurd a sudden, new construction technology that pumps out homes like a popcorn machine, climate change that roasts us into human popcorn, not the good kind, and AI or VR, so advanced that We're all going to live inside some sort of force field. How about an even worse pandemic, or even a world war that would have to kill at least 10s of millions of people, or something like that, or aliens or asteroids destroying Earth? Or how about a depression level economic contraction. But see all these scenarios that would derail the housing demand trend. They range from the pretty unlikely to the downright ludicrous. Starts to sound like a Sci-fi flick, and amidst a lot of those afflictions, your life's biggest concern wouldn't be your real estate investment portfolio. It would be primordial human survival. Now, before I summarize your big takeaway here, let me tell you immigration, it has near term downsides, like a lack of housing and a demand for public assistance. And yes, I know a huge pack of new immigrants can appear sort of like a Walmart at first glance, huge, chaotic and full of people that seem like they've given up on life.   But that is certainly not always the case. A lot of immigrants are ambitious long term new young people drive an economy. Immigrants have long been a backbone of innovation. A lot of our tech giants were started by immigrants or their children, and also a lot of immigrants find those construction jobs that can help us build our way out of the housing shortage crisis, but that is going to take a long time. The bottom line here is that if you're looking for your own home, waiting probably won't help. As an investor, own more properties now, own lots of rental housing, you're going to have something that everybody needs. Housing demand is expected to exceed supply well into the future. Both this US born surge of people and the immigrants, what they do is they tend to be renters for years before they become buyers, if they ever become buyers, from here today, it's a realistic scenario to expect then soaring real estate prices, higher rents and lofty occupancy rates for years.    Well, Tom terrific is back in the house, and we are talking taxes. Brady's in the gun bulletin to his left. He's got the hoo man on the right wing with Dobson to the right Collie and Tomkins left. Brady throws it to the end zone for kenbrell Tompkins. Leaping. Kenbrell Tompkins, Brady's back.   That's your quarterback. Show ponies, where's the beat? All right, that's enough. Scott zolak, Bob Sochi on the call there 95 the sports hub in Boston. No Tom. Brady is not the Tom terrific that we often have here. Brady simply doesn't know enough about taxes. We've got the tax expert with us, the extraordinary Tom. We're right. What about that spirited play call at the end there? Did he say unicorns show ponies? Where's the beef? I don't really get all that. So getting back to real estate and taxes here, look, here's the thing, when you see what your government spends money on, and you're disgusted by some of these spending programs, doesn't that give you a supreme motivation to want to reduce your taxes? Well, we're going to talk about state income taxes where they're high where they're low. There are currently nine income tax free states. Are more states looking to drop their income tax to zero and join them? Or is it going the other direction, where they're looking to raise them if you live in one state and invest in another. We'll get into how that looks too. Canadian listeners, sorry, we don't plan to have provincial income tax discussion today. Now, I seem to have become here no more for my real estate investing voice than anything else. Last month, I was in Pennsylvania for a while, and I ran into one of my high school teachers. He was the art teacher, but he also taught a class called journalism in publications. That was an elective class, and I took that class as a high school student. I think I was a senior then, well, our job was to lay out the yearbook, writing, positioning and centering this text here in that image over there. Well, I told my old journalism and publications teacher that he's been a substantial influence on me because, as you know, I write our Don't quit your Daydream letter to you about every week. And I just love doing that, I've always thought of myself as more of a writer than a talker, and I myself really enjoy writing and laying out the body and images of our newsletter and sending it to you about weekly on crucial information that you must know About, real estate investing, economics and wealth mindset. It's got a dash of humor, and every single letter can be read in less than five minutes, often less than three minutes. I would love to have you as one of our 1000s of weekly readers, and it is free. You can get it simply by texting GRE  to 6866. come along and join us for real estate investing information and fun. Just take a moment and do it right now while it's on your mind. Text, GRE to 6686 lots more. Straight ahead. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get Rich education.   Hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine, at Ridge lending group NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage, you can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start Now while it's on your mind at Ridgelendinggroup.com, that's ridgelendinggroup.com.   Your bank is getting rich off of you. The national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings. If your money isn't making 4% you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work. With minimum risk, your cash generates up to an 8% return with compound interest, year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% sitting in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25k you keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back. Their decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And I would know, because I'm an investor too. Earn 8% hundreds of others are. Text FAMILY  to 66866, learn more about Freedom Family Investments, liquidity fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text FAMILY to 66866.   Chris Martenson  21:42   this is peak prosperity's Chris Martinson. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.   Keith Weinhold  21:58   This week's guest is, to me, the world's foremost tax pro. He is an international authority on how you can permanently reduce your taxes, and he really makes taxes easy, fun and understandable, like no one else that I've ever met does. He runs a terrific educational platform too. It's called wealth ability. Welcome back to get rich education. Tom, we're right.    Tom Wheelwright  22:21   Thanks, Keith, always good to be here.    Keith Weinhold  22:23   Yeah, it's so good to have you back, because taxes are such a dynamic topic. And one place where I wonder if it's going to be dynamic, Tom, is we have a number of states that don't have any state income tax, which is something that people have to pay on top of their federal income tax. Federal alone can be up to 37% some of the states with the fastest population growth, like Tennessee, Florida and Texas, don't have any state income tax. So what I'm wondering, Tom is, are more states considering abolishing the income tax like those states have done.    Tom Wheelwright  22:59   We've actually seen a lot of states in the last couple of years reduced their income tax rates. So Arizona, where I live, is one of them. We went from over a potential tax rate of like eight and a half percent potential to an actual tax rate of 5% there was actually a proposal passed that would have increased it down to a tax rate of two and a half percent. Our former governor, Doug Ducey, his goal was to abolish the income tax in Arizona, and we did get down to two and a half percent. There are a number of states, typically in the middle of the country. You don't see any states on the coasts doing this, outside of Florida, that are reducing their tax rates. So you do see states doing that. You see other states that are increasing their tax rates. Recently, I was reading about Bill Belichick, and he said, Massachusetts is always hard getting the top earners, the top free agents, into New England. Because he says, This is taxachusetts, because they have a surtax on millionaires. Well, of course, all football players are millionaires. That is an issue. People are leaving states like California, Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey, and they're moving to low tax states such as Arizona, Texas, Florida and, you know, the whole southern belt.    Keith Weinhold  24:15   with Belichick having Tom Brady. It didn't matter if he couldn't bring in the best players, because Tom Brady made stars out of nobodies. It seems like he could complete a pass to any no name wide receiver or tight end for two decades there in New England. But can you tell us more about maybe interesting dynamics with state income tax? For example, I know that California has punitively high state income taxes, and then you have other states that have tax rate tables and some that have flat taxes, like, I think Pennsylvania has about a 3% flat income tax. Colorados is 4.4 so can you tell us more?   Tom Wheelwright  24:51   Yeah, there are, you know, the federal income tax has graduated rates. We go, actually, from a zero rate to currently a 37% rate, which is not really 37% rate. It's really 41% because there's a 4% add on tax that pretty much you're gonna pay. So it's really over 40% California has a graduated tax rate, but it goes up to 13% Minnesota has a high income tax. New York has a high income tax. So Massachusetts, we're seeing high income taxes. The states that provide have big governments and provide lots of services have high tax rates. That's why we see it on the coasts. Interesting enough. Minnesota. Minnesota is the liberal state in the middle of the country, and so they have liberal states tend to have very high tax rates, and conservative states tend to have very low tax rates.    Keith Weinhold  25:45   Now we have a lot of real estate investors here that have learned that the best deals are outside their home state. So that investor might be domiciled in a Minnesota, but investing in, say, Arkansas, tell us about how the state income tax affects them.   Tom Wheelwright  25:59    So it's kind of like being a US citizen, right? You live in the US. You're taxed on your worldwide income. You live in Minnesota. You're taxed on your worldwide income in Minnesota. So by virtue of where your residency is, you are taxed on all of your income. Now you'll get a credit, typically, for taxes paid to another state. Well, let's say that your tax rate in your state is 10% and then you invest in a state with a tax rate of 3% well you're going to get tax credit of 3% so you're still going to pay 7% in your state, plus 3% that state. You're still going to pay your 10% it's just going to be some of that's going to go to another state. Some of it's going to go to your state. But in total, your tax rate is likely to be wherever you live. That's youroverall state tax rate. I'll give you another example. Let's say that you invest in Texas, you live in in Minnesota, you're going to pay Minnesota tax rates on your income, you get no credit because you have no tax in Texas. What's worse is, though, you have property tax in Texas, but you don't get a credit in Minnesota for your property tax paid in Texas. So you have much higher property taxes in Texas than you do in most states. Right? Because every state has to raise revenue, right? In Texas has decided to it largely on sales tax and property tax. So that means that you don't get that offset. Property taxes are pretty serious in Texas. If you're an investor in Texas, you know that property taxes are pretty serious, but you don't get any kind of benefit in Minnesota, but you still pick up the income in Minnesota.    Keith Weinhold  27:38   In some Texas jurisdictions, property taxes can be 3% annually based on the property's value, pretty punitive. There in Texas, Texas is a good example. That's where we have often high property tax rates, but zero state income tax. So with these other states that have zero state income tax, are they subsidizing that with property taxes or sales taxes, or in what other way are they making up that?    Tom Wheelwright  28:03   Of course, for example, we were talking earlier about Tennessee. Tennessee doesn't have a personal income tax, but if you have your real estate owned through a limited liability company, you do have a 6% tax on the income of the LLC. So even though it's a pass through entity for Tennessee purposes, it's taxed. They have all sorts of mechanisms to raise revenue. All states need revenue. Now, some states raise less revenue per capita than other states. Those are the states that people tend to move to. But don't forget those other taxes. I mean, sales taxes. Sales taxes can be very high, right? And you pay sales taxes typically don't pay them on food or prescription drugs, but you typically pay them on pretty much everything else, and including leasing a car, they're going to get their money. It's just how they get their money.    Keith Weinhold  28:50   Well, we've been talking about ways that you could potentially legally escape taxation, depending on what state that you live in. So in a domestic sense, and Tom we pull back and we think about that in an international sense. A lot of Americans don't seem to realize that if they're, I guess, born and raised and get citizenship in the United States when they become an adult and get older and they go abroad, they have to continue to pay US taxes if they move to Norway or Dubai. Can you tell us about that?    Tom Wheelwright  29:21   Yeah, so US citizens are taxed on worldwide income as long as they're a US citizen. Here's what's really interesting in the US let's say you give up your US citizenship, you're still subject to taxes on your worldwide income for 10 years. Wow, after you give up your citizenship so you no one get any of the benefits of being a citizen. You've given that up, and you still have taxes for 10 years. Earlier this year, we did an episode, and we talked a little bit about this unrealized capital gains tax, right? People don't think, well, I'll just leave. Doesn't work that way. You're still going to have the capital gains tax for at least 10 years, and the only way to get rid of it is to give up your citizenship and wait 10 years. It's a pretty restrictive law, because most countries only tax if you live there, if you're a citizen of France, but you move to Belgium, you're taxed in Belgium, you're not taxed in France. Not true with us.    Keith Weinhold  30:19   Yeah, that's remarkable. I didn't know about that 10 year thing. Even if you renounce your citizenship, those taxes will follow you for 10 years regardless of where else in the world you live. Um, I'm just maybe this is a little bit of devil's advocate. I mean, this sounds preposterous when we first think about how Americans are taxed abroad for the rest of their life, but maybe thinking of it philosophically, if it does make sense in any way, which is really hard for me to say, but maybe it's because, okay, well, you were born and raised in the United States, where we have this very mature infrastructure and stable currency and good educational system, so you got to be a beneficiary of that. So when you're 30, you can't move away and never give us any tax money to support that. Again, what are your thoughts with that?    Tom Wheelwright  31:02   different countries have different tax systems? What I will say is, just like the state discussion, you do get a credit for taxes paid to another country. So if you have income taxes, let's say you're living in Portugal and you pay Portuguese income taxes, you're not going to pay taxes twice. You're going to pay the higher of the two rates, either the Portuguese tax rate or the US tax rate, but you should not be paying tax twice. Now, if you're going to do that, you need a really good team of tax professionals. You need a good US tax professional, and you need a good tax professional where you live, and those two tax professionals need to talk to each other on a regular basis, because otherwise you can end up paying double tax, and that is the worst of all worlds. You do not want to end up paying double tax. So make sure that just know that if you're going to invest in another country, or you're going to live in another country, you need double the tax advice.    Keith Weinhold  31:05   I am just going to speculate that there are an awful lot of people that don't consider taxes before they move, whether that's domestic or international, not that that should be the top consideration, but a lot of people probably aren't even thinking about it.    Tom Wheelwright  32:13   A lot of people aren't. That's true. Now, are there ways to reduce your taxes internationally, particularly if you're in business? Yes, there are ways that you can reduce your taxes. So know that there is still tax planning available. But I hear about people saying, I'm going to invest in the Dominican Republican, or I'm going to invest in Dubai, or I'm going to invest somewhere else. Just know that you've got now two sets of laws that you're working with you're working with US laws, and you're working with that country's laws. And so make sure that you've got good advisory on both sides. When we're talking about moving for tax considerations, we should cover Puerto Rico. Tell us about the advantageous tax laws for Puerto Rico, and if they're going to sunset, they're there for the foreseeable future. So Puerto Rico, depending on how you earn your income, you can potentially reduce your income tax rate from the current 37% rate in the US to 4% yeah, that's basically an agreement with Puerto Rico. Puerto Rico is still the US, but it's got special laws that it's almost like a treaty, right? Even though it's a territory of the US. And what happens is, is that if you set it up properly, you got to live there, by the way, you can't just pretend. You got to live there six months in a day out of the year, over six months a year. And if you do, then you get a 4% tax rate on the income you earn while you're in Puerto Rico. If you earn income while you're in the mainland, you're going to pay tax on the mainland, but the income you earn in Puerto Rico, you're going to pay 4% tax. And there are certain types of income that that works for certain types of income, it doesn't just make sure that this is one where you need a Puerto Rican tax advisor as well as your US tax advisor. Capital Gains also have they have a potential tax rate of zero. So there are obviously details you have to follow again, make sure, before you get into that, know that there are huge tax benefits for living in Puerto Rico. No question. You know, it's the Puerto Rican discount. What can I say? We say in Arizona that California has a beach tax and we have a desert discount. The same was true in Puerto Rico. Puerto Rico has a Puerto Rican discount. That's what it is.    Keith Weinhold  34:24   Yeah, you're going to be getting on a plane a lot in order to go anywhere. I know an awful lot of entrepreneurs that have relocated to Puerto Rico. You do too. Tom, you the listener, probably do as well. It's really important to have the right team before you make such considerations. And before we're done today, Tom and I will talk about how you can connect with him and learn more. But Tom, since we last had you here, you updated your terrific book, which I have on my bookshelf called Tax Free Wealth. Tell us about the updates and changes you made to the book.   Tom Wheelwright  34:56   We do a new edition of tax free wealth every time there's a major change in the tax law. So the second edition was the 2017 tax law, because that was a major change. Since 2017 though we've had six major changes to the tax law, we had a bunch of major tax law changes during COVID And so what we did was we actually took the 2017 and all the new ones, werolled them all into a new edition. By far. This is the best edition of tax free wealth by a long shot. I mean, I think tax free wealth, you know, got good bones to it. It's a good book. Got almost 4005 star reviews on Amazon. This is the one I like the best, by far.   Keith Weinhold  35:18   Tax Free wealth, I read the original edition, and it's not like watching motorcycles jump off ramps, but for a tax book, it's actually really a good read there. He really brings life and some good examples to how you can permanently reduce your taxes. Tom, you and your terrific firm wealth ability have been helping people do that for years. If you the listener, want to Tom's team and Tom's referral network to help you permanently reduce your taxes. We have a resource for you atget rich education.com/taxwe can actually set up a free consultation to confirm if indeed they can help you in your situation. And Tom, why don't you talk to us some more about the importance of having the right tax pro on your team, and how they're not actually an expense, but really they're an incentive to you, because the fastest way to get an ROI is actually by reducing your taxes, because it can be done almost instantly.    Tom Wheelwright  35:36   Yeah, for sure. And what's important is that you have a relationship with a tax advisor that does give you tax advice. That's why it's called a tax advisor. They actually give you tax advice, and they willing to give it to you. And they're not waffling. They're not saying, Well, I don't know, or they're not backing off. They're saying, Well, look, if you do this, this is what you get. You have to choose whether you want to make those changes to your situation, but they're going to give you, you know, what changes you can make to your facts in order to reduce your taxes. I think the most important thing, though, is that you have a partnership with your CPA, that this is a true relationship. And we've actually changed the way we work with clients. We used to charge for projects. We used to charge for tax returns. What we want is a relationship, so we basically charge a monthly fee for the relationship. So that's a recent change in our model, you're going to see more and more CPAs go to that model, because it is a much more comfortable model for both the CPA and for the client. But what we want to do is we want to emphasize the relationship. We don't want you to feel like every time you pick up the phone, you're going to get charged. We don't want you to feel like, well, all that tax return fee is just killing me. No, it's not a tax return fee, it's a monthly fee. It's an annual fee, billed monthly, is what it is. And that way you have something come up, you don't have to worry about them and get a bill for it. You have even an IRS audit come up. Once you're a client with us for a year. After the first year, we'll then allow you to pay a small monthly fee so that when you get audited, you won't pay us for handling the audit. We call that an audit defense plan. I talk about that in tax free wealth. To me, we've been operating this way. So my firm, which I worked with people like Robert Kiyosaki, we've been operating this way for several years, and it is the best way to work with a tax advisor, because you always have that relationship, and you never have to worry. I'm not going to get this big tax bill, this big fee, like you do for an attorney, right? You don't call your attorney, because you can get a big fee, right? Every minute it's going to be a big fee. This is a great way to work with a tax advisor and make sure that you can be proactive, and they can be proactive. It's really a great way to help build the relationship over time, which is something that you're going to want to have over time again. If you want to learn more and have that free consultation, you can start at get rich education.com/tax.   Keith Weinhold  38:56   Tom, it's been valuable as always. Thanks so much for coming back onto the show.    Tom Wheelwright  38:59   Thanks, Keith.   Keith Weinhold  39:06   Nine states don't have an earned income tax. Alaska, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Washington and Wyoming. And the way to avoid state income tax is clearly to start by living in one of those states. I don't believe that moving to one just for tax reasons, is a good idea, though, like I was saying earlier, do you agree with how your government is spending your tax dollars? If you don't, then you owe it to yourself to reduce your tax burden, otherwise, you are just helping to fuel reckless spending. And when you lower your tax burden, not only do you stop fueling reckless spending, of course, you increase your own personal return on investment. You know in fact. This paying any more tax than you have to fuel a kleptocracy. I think it's at least worth asking the question then, because this is get rich education, little learning moments, some vocab rehab. Here, you can think of a kleptocracy as being synonymous with a fevocracy. The strict definition of a kleptocracy is a government whose corrupt leaders use political power to expropriate the wealth of the people and land they govern, typically by embezzling or expropriating government funds at the expense of the wider population. All right, well, is that a little too strong for the behavior of our elected leaders or not? I'll let you decide that. But see, most of the 1000s of pages of the US tax code does not outline the taxes that you have to pay. Did you realize that the vast majority of the IRS Code is a guidebook to help you reduce your taxes that are in those tax tables. Well, now my own tax return is hundreds of pages long, and a lot of it outlines how my taxes have been reduced for that tax year. Well, Tom's excellent book called tax free wealth is sort of a digestible way to make the reading more fun than any psycho that would read the entire IRS tax code, but to make it even easier than that, it's really a good opportunity to connect with Tom's team and see exactly how they can help you reduce your tax In your specific situation, and is especially helpful for real estate investors and business owners. You know that I often like to leave you with something actionable. You can book a free consult at getrich education.com/tax that's get richeducation.com/tax.   Until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.   Speaker 2  42:06   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively.   Keith Weinhold  42:34   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com you

BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast
Should You Refinance Now? + The Greatest HELOC Hack Ever (No/Low Interest)

BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 23, 2024 37:35


“Should I refinance my home NOW or wait?” If you have bought a property in the past two years, every day looks like a better and better time to refinance your mortgage. After the Fed's big rate cut last month, mortgage rates did the unexpected…they went UP. But, even with these slightly inflated rates, now is looking like a good time to refinance if you bought a home with a higher interest rate. So, should you take the risk of waiting for mortgage rates to drop or lock in these substantially lower rates now? We don't know what will happen next, so we brought on veteran lender Caeli Ridge to answer some of our more nuanced questions. Caeli summarizes where rates were, where they are today, and where they could be headed. If you want to know what refinance and HELOC (home equity line of credit) rates are right now, stay tuned because she shares exactly what her clients are getting. What about paying no or low interest on your next HELOC? Caeli shares what may be the greatest HELOC hack we've ever heard of—one that gives you lots of liquidity while keeping your interest payments at the absolute rock bottom. You may have never heard of anything like it, so don't miss this one! In This Episode We Cover: Where mortgage rates are right now for refinances and HELOCs The HELOC hack that greatly minimizes your interest in your next equity line  Caeli's interest rate forecast and where she thinks rates could be in the near future  When waiting to refinance could cost you, and whether rates may go UP again  The metrics that influence where mortgage rates will go next (what to pay attention to) And So Much More! Links from the Show Join BiggerPockets for FREE Let Us Know What You Thought of the Show! Wall Street wants a strong economy. It also wants Fed rate cuts. The two aren't necessarily compatible Invest in Turnkey Properties with REI Nation Grab Dave's Book, “Real Estate by the Numbers” Find Investor-Friendly Lenders With Mortgage Rates Falling, When Should Investors Refinance? Connect with Caeli Connect with Dave (00:00) Intro (01:52) Interest Rate Update (06:34) Why Rates Went UP (11:59) Should You Refinance? (18:17) Current Refi Rates (19:37) Best HELOC Hack (29:01) Interest Rate Forecast Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/real-estate-1034 Interested in learning more about today's sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Rental Income Podcast With Dan Lane
Bonus - Mortgage Market Update

Rental Income Podcast With Dan Lane

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 17, 2024 22:48


Caeli Ridge shares the latest news on the mortgage market.We discuss where rates are headed and how this will affect rental property investors.Caeli shares today's rates, and we go over a payment example.Caeli also talks about how much money investors would save if rates come down more.We also talk about a creative strategy to save money on interest.Contact Caeli:855-74-RIDGERidgeLendingGroup.com

Get Rich Education
523: How to Vet a Property Manager

Get Rich Education

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 14, 2024 42:48


Join our upcoming GRE live event right here! - ‘New Turnkey Properties with ZERO Money Down' on Thursday 10/24. On this week's episode, Keith shares how to vet and onboard a property manager, emphasizing the importance of their role in tenant relations and net operating income. He is also joined by our guest, seasoned investor and turnkey expert, to highlight the benefits of new construction properties with zero money down, leveraging builder incentives and portfolio loans. Learn the key qualifications to look for in a property manager, typical management fee structures and questions to ask. Hear about the benefits of new construction homes, including consistent income, quality tenants, and growth potential. We discuss the potential for 10% builder credits and 5% down portfolio loans. Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/523 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREmarketplace.com/Coach Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai    Keith Weinhold  00:01 Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, how do you vet a property manager and maintain an onboarding relationship with them over time? I just hired one, and I'll tell you how I did it. Then there's a trend to exploit in today's real estate market, with the opportunity to place zero money down on brand new build property today on Get Rich Education.   00:27 Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show, guess who? Top Selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com   Corey Coates  01:12 You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  01:29 Welcome to GRE Yeah. This is get rich education, the voice of real estate investing for more than 10 years now. This is episode 523, and I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, let's talk about how to vet a property manager. After all, they are what make your real estate investment mostly passive. I recently hired a new property manager. Of course, I have one in each geographic area where I own property. Now, instead, you can self manage from a distance, but sooner or later, you probably won't feel that's the highest and best use of your time. As friend of GRE and host of the real estate guys radio show, Robert Helms says, Life is too short for property management. And you know, when it comes to managing your property, still today, you can't just have an AI do that, and to be your property manager is the most important piece of your team, because they're the ones that handle all the tenant relations, collect your rent, and They control your occupancy rate too. I think you can make the case that a property manager is even more important in larger apartment buildings than they are in, say, single family rentals up to fourplexes, and that's for a few reasons. Number one, because managers drive your net operating income your noi in apartments. Okay, so that doesn't just drive your income. That drives the very valuation of the property, since apartments are the NOI divided by the cap rate. And secondly, one bad or noisy tenant can make other apartment tenants miserable. Yet if there's one noisy single family home tenant, well others might not even know about it or hear them. So a manager is more important in large apartments than smaller units. But let's not let the point be missed. They are crucial, just vital either way. And when it comes to qualifying a property manager, you know, before you reach out to that manager, do some research on your own. First, like first, I like to see if I have any friends that use that management company, and I like to get feedback from them. Also like to read reviews and see what current investors that use that property manager say about them in forums. And you know from real world experience, if you've been an investor for any period of time, it's a little sad to say, but getting reviews that are merely adequate or average, that might be good enough. There are many places in life where I accept mediocrity, although property management is probably one of them, because it's just a tough job where that manager has to adjudicate, use their judgment and walk a line between two antagonistic parties, and those parties are you and Your tenants. So adequate is good enough. Management is just one of those industries. It's kind of like airlines always seem to get bad reviews too. If there's a rating system out there for umpires and referees, it would probably be the same users only comment when there's a problem. Well. So when vetting a property manager next, I like to know how long they've been in business. I also like to know how many properties that manager currently manages, how many units they have in their management portfolio. And with this latest manager that I just recently hired, it happened to be 325 properties. That's a good number. And this manager also happens to be one in a network of a nationwide management franchise. So there are some systems and some economies of scale that I'm getting, and there are a lot of mom and pop managers too, and they can often do a good job as well of scaling and automation. A lot of managers, for example, they leverage a software like app folio, where you as an investor, you can log in and see your investor activity and your owner draws there. So this particular new manager that I hire, they have those 325, properties that they manage. But speaking to geography, I learned that their brick and mortar presence, their main office, it's a full 45 minutes away from where I have my properties all clustered. That's not ideal to have my properties far flung from their hub, because you want your properties to get adequate attention. And you can imagine, if your properties are too far for where most of their operations are. Well, then your properties might not get enough attention, but I learned that they already have 20 properties in the immediate area of mine, and that their maintenance man also happens to live near my property, so in this case, 45 minutes from the satellite office. Although it's not ideal, it did work for me. This new manager that I hired has the tenants rent be due on the first of the month, but they have a grace period to pay until the fifth and then the owner draws. They're made around the 10th of the month and the owner draws. That means when the manager makes their payment, to me, the investor, which is after they collected all the rents, minus their management fees and maintenance expenses. All right. Well, all that stuff is pretty typical, and let me tell you now about their management fee structure. And again, this is pretty typical. And by the way, I don't try to negotiate fees with managers in most cases, maybe, unless I have an awful lot of properties with them, they have a monthly management fee of 8% now 10% that's a pretty common fee out there as well, meaning that if rent is $2,000 they take $160 each month in a management fee. That's that 8% and then additionally their leasing fee is one half month, meaning that when they screen and place a new tenant for me, they get $1,000 at that time again, on this example of a $2,000 rent, and I pay a $150 re leasing fee, meaning If they release the unit to that same tenant after, say, their first year or two lease expires, ask your manager if they do markups on maintenance bills. For example, if they subcontract a plumber, and those plumber charges are $500 over to the manager. Does a manager tack on, say, 10% to that charge and then charge you $550 or not? Preferably, the answer is no markups like that can be another profit center for property management companies. However, what this manager does is instead, they have a trip charge of $55 for when their maintenance guy visits the property, and I was okay with that. That's reasonable. Also ask your property manager, if they do regular inspections of your properties, that means that they physically go inside the unit from time to time to confirm that everything is on right, that your tenant is trading a property with respect and that there aren't any deferred maintenance items cropping up, like delaminated flooring or some kind of water leak that needs attention. And this particular manager that I just decided to hire, they charge $75 a year for two of these annual inspections, so they physically go inside the unit every six months for a comprehensive check, which is a really good idea. And I love that they do that. Another tactic that I take when vetting a property manager is to ask them, you know, just a detailed question or two, really feel out their operations. It can be a good idea for you to do something like this. For example, I told this new manager that you know, in the past with other management companies or ones I still use, you know, I've seen managers they try to charge me for clearing a clogged sink drain. Well, I've let managers know I shouldn't. Not be seeing charges like that at all. In almost every instance, clearing clogs that should be charged to the tenant, not me. I mean, obstructions don't float up from water and septic systems. So in most cases, that is what's happening. So you know, the tenant is at fault for getting something clogged in there in almost every case. Now, one exception might be that, I don't know, tree roots encroach on plumbing or something like that. Okay? But the point is, when you ask about something like that, you're showing your property manager that you're savvy and you can't be taken advantage of. Okay? They have got to be the ones that pushes back on the tenant, sometimes not pushing on you every time, just because they feel like you're the one that can afford the expense more than the tenant. So that sets some expectations for the ongoing relationship. Also talk to your property manager about your communication preferences over time. Now, for me personally, I don't want an intrusive text message unless it's something that's pretty urgent. I prefer email communication, and the manager does not need to email me every time they need approval of expenses less than, say, $300 now, when you get more faith in your manager later, you might want to bump that number up to $500 or whatever your number is. Now, at times I do like to call my property manager on the phone. Sometimes you'll just get more information from them. This way, a better feel when I called a different property manager that I currently have, you know, one thing that they mentioned to be on the phone, they were like, oh, Keith, I've been meaning to call you. You've had a vacant unit for weeks, and we should probably lower the asking rent 50 to $100 All right. Well, I agree that we should do that, but I feel like the vacancy would have lingered longer at the higher asking rent had I not called. So really, this is the sort of light touch that you should give your properties over time, and it's the reason that why, even with professional property management, it's not completely passive. Instead, it's a little contact. And I also like to tell my property manager that I have mortgages on my properties. I have every property mortgaged, and always have. You can choose to have your manager pay your mortgage for you, or you can pay it yourself, and that's a bit about vetting and managing your property manager. And I hope some of those ideas go a long way toward helping you, really, they're the frameworks about what's important and establishing expectations with them. Up front this week a great guest and I will discuss trends in today's real estate investment market, and then we'll tell you about an event that you can join and how to specifically exploit an especially promising real estate opportunity that I have never seen before. That's next. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get rich education.  Hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine, at Ridge lending group  NMLS, 420056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation, because they specialize in income properties, they help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start Now while it's on your mind at Ridgelendinggroup.com that's Ridgelendinggroup.com. Your bank is getting rich off of you. The national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings. If your money isn't making 4% you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund to help you put your money to work with minimum risk, your cash generates up to an 8% return with compound interest, year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% sitting in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25k you keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back. Their decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And I would know, because I'm an investor too. Earn 8% hundreds of others are text FAMILY to 66866, learn more about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text FAMILY to 66866.   Rick Sharga  14:46 this is Rick Sharga, a housing market intelligence analyst. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold and don't quit your Daydream.   Keith Weinhold  15:11 This week, we've got the privilege of hearing from a seasoned real estate investor. He himself is in single family, multifamily and commercial. He's also a licensed optometrist, and he practices on a volunteer basis, giving away his time and expertise there. In fact, he started investing in real estate while working as an optometrist and captain for the US Air Force, and that on the side, real estate investing allowed him to retire early from medicine, and today, he's an industry expert in real estate market analytics and how to use real estate as a means to create the lifestyle that you, the listener, desire for your family. Hey, welcome to GRE Zach Lemaster.   Zack Lemaster  15:54 Thanks so much for having me on again. It's good to be back, and always a pleasure to you know, talk real estate, I learn a lot from you in the content you put out. So I'm a big fan, and I appreciate you having me on.   Keith Weinhold  16:06 Well, thanks for saying that will. I'm sure we're going to learn from you today too. You've got such a great take and feel for the pulse of the residential real estate market. Tell us about your take, whether that's price, direction, rents, occupancy rates, supply, interest rates, demographics, whatever you think is important, tell us about what a real estate investor really needs to know in this era, Zach.   Zack Lemaster  16:30 man, and this could probably be a whole day conversation, Keith, I think you've done an excellent job covering this every time you put out information, so we won't belabor the point. But I guess my general take is that, you know, we're moving into a section in the the market cycle, I believe, where we'll probably start to see a little bit more of a normalization of a real estate market. I mean, it's just been so strange, right, to pull data points over the past two years, and actually, really four or five years of like, there's really some unique things happening, and there's a lot of people that have projections around how housing prices are changing and things like that. The only really thing, I think the big takeaway from the past two years is that home sales have plundered it. People talk about real estate crashes, real estate prices really didn't change that so much. And actually in a lot of the markets, like where we focused on they went up because, you know, supply and demand. These are areas where there's a huge discrepancy and there's an undersupply of housing, and those are kind of the areas you want to be in the path of progress. But one thing that we did see over the past few years is that there's a plummet in home sales, and that's both with less buyers because of the interest rates and less sellers holding on to their low interest rates. People are less likely to move in those scenarios. So I think we're going to see more of that as we start to see interest rates coming down over time, and we'll probably see more inventory hit the market, but also a new influx of buyers. So I don't know if there's going to be much of a change in terms of pricing, but generally speaking, I think there's from the investor side. A lot of what we talk about is retail, but with the investor mindset, which is your audience, I think what we will likely see is that there's probably a lot of people that were sitting on the sidelines that will jump into the market. There's going to be more buyer competition, of course, that drives prices. And one thing we know for a fact that we'll dive in deeper today about Keith, is that there are builders, because a lot of what we do is in the new construction, build to rent industry. And we could talk about why that is, but that's just a solid asset class to maintain consistent income, quality, tenants, growth and potential in both home appreciation and rents. But I think what we're likely to see is that over the past year, there's been a lot of builders giving out these crazy incentives because they've had excess inventory and they've had a slowdown on the retail sales, and it's been a really unique opportunity for investors to come in acquire good assets at with these crazy incentives of below market pricing, which we'll talk about, that is likely going to disappear over time, as they move more into the retail sales, and those channels start to open up more because there's more buyers and so in the niche that we work in, that's kind of the takeaway that I think is developing, really over the next, you know, A few months here.   Keith Weinhold  19:00 yes, this reduction in sales volume that we've had like you touched on which lower interest rates could help thaw. Almost everyone agrees that interest rates are going to fall more slowly than they spiked in rows in 2022 and you know what's funny, Zach, I can be in the front of a room talking about the condition of the economy in the real estate market, and I can say to the audience act, I can say, if you think there's uncertainty right now, a substantial amount of uncertainty, raise your hand. Adversely. Everyone raises their hand. But you know what? They did the same thing two years ago, and they did the same thing five years ago. So my point is, yeah, investors invest through the uncertainty. Because uncertainty always exists. It just shifts around as to where the uncertainty is. The listener might be trying to validate sort of one thing in their mind and get it to balance out right now. Zach, when we talk about this lowering of sales volume, and you mentioned builders that are sitting on some inventory yet we have a lack. Of supply. Can you balance that out for us and tell us how that is that some builders have inventory that they're sitting on that's supply, and yet we have an overall lack of supply.   Zack Lemaster  20:10 yeah, and I think the other key piece into that is lack of affordability, right? And so all those things kind of play together, just to tie up your last point. There's always uncertainty in real estate, but there's also the fundamentals of real estate. Keith, you know, this is a long time investor, investing all across the country, as long as you stay focused on the fundamentals, which, at the end of the day, is really investing in good locations with good teams, where you have positive cash flow, right? And you likely have a positive outlook from an economic standpoint for that market, to keep the house rent in to keep rents going up. Like that's really all there is to this to be successful long term that can exist in any market cycle. So I just encourage people to stay focused on that. But ultimately, your question about inventory supply, we talked about big things of like lack of inventory. I mean, we have a deficit of I think the last stat I saw was seven and a half million houses, you know, deficit or something like that, but that's really on the global economic picture for the US, right when we break it down to the kind of the micro economic scale with each individual regional market, because we work with regional builders as well as national builders, and we're also builder. We also put up our own houses as well to a somewhat small scale, but a lot of those builders started the houses that are now completed, you know, at this point, sometimes six months ago, more likely 12 to 18 months ago. And they had anticipation as the Fed was talking about interest rates lowering, you know, they maybe were planning an X amount of sales for those exact houses. However, from the retail standpoint, there really hasn't been that movement. So we still have a lack of homes that we need, but we also have a lack of people that can buy those houses, because there's a lack of affordability, right? And all these builders also have X amount of houses that they sell to institutional buyers, the blackrocks and some of these buyers that will come in in and we'll talk about why that's relevant to us and how we've pioneered our way into operating like one of those for the individual investor and bringing those same buying incentives to the everyday investor. But there's also been a large decrease on investor activity from an institutional level buying. So just because we have a reduction in inventory and we have a low supply does not necessarily mean that we're just gonna, you know, builders can just sell all their homes because of that. There's a lot that plays into that, and you need to look at each geographic market. But ultimately, if you're looking at the fundamentals of investing in real estate, where you can still be, and we try to be below the meeting house price point, below that $400,000 price point, again, that's where we have the largest demographic big affordability issues right now. I think that's a safe place to be, right? Because you don't see the fluctuations that you do on the more expensive homes, the more expensive markets. I think you have the large, large demographics for both renters and retail buyers, and you also have more runway, right? More runway for prices to go up. So that's kind of our the niche area that we're when I'm talking about excess supply. That's the area that we're really focusing on.   Keith Weinhold  23:03 Oh, that was beautifully explained in how to tie that supply story together there. Zach, of course, there are so many ways to divide up the real estate market, one of those being that price tier. And typically for us as cash flow real estate investors, we look at a single family home. Yeah, it's going to be under 400k in order to generate income, I have an announcement to make here to you the listener on Thursday, October 24 one of our GRE investment coaches, along with Zach here, are co hosting GRE 's live event for new build turnkey income properties with zero money down. Yes, I'm stealing some of your thunder there. Zach, zero money down. Registration is now open at GREwebinars.com and the momentum has been building for this event that you can attend from the comfort of your own home. Tell us about what you'll be covering at our live event. Zach.   Zack Lemaster  23:58 yeah, and I'm very excited to do that. Keith, I appreciate you having me. Han, again, I think all the investors, if you're interested in new construction or just creative finance and some ways to make some unique deals happen, like you have to attend this webinar just to at least learn. First, we'll talk about different markets right now where we see the best opportunity. So if nothing else, you learn about some of the best markets to invest in. But really what we're going to unveil is how someone, regardless of where you live, geographically or your investing experience, how you can make a creative deal happen on a turnkey deal that you can get below market value and possibly buy with zero money down, or at least have a good portion of your down payment cover to really skyrocket your ROI. So this is a scenario, Keith, we really get to have your cake and eat it too, because you get a brand new constructed house. It's turnkey, where everything is done for you in a great market that has appreciation book on rents and prices. But you can also buy it with low to no money down and really be a creative investor. And I know that we're going to talk about all the details with that.   Keith Weinhold  24:58 Yes, let's talk more about. Out the potential for zero money down here. I mean, I think that's the most compelling value proposition with what we're doing next Thursday.   Zack Lemaster  25:08 sure. So we'll just go through a numeric example so people can kind of wrap their head around like what this entails. We already set the stage for you know why builders may have excess inventory. And what we do with our business is we partner with both regional and national builders, some of the largest national builders as well as as I mentioned, we build our own homes as well, but we partner with some of these national builders that have excess inventory in markets that we know are productive investment opportunities. A lot of these happen to be in the southeast, because that's where the population is growing, and we're seeing that's where favorable landlord legislation is and federal taxes and growth potential, all the things right, positive cash flow, but we focus on those areas. And we can go to these national builders, because as a group, you know, we buy hundreds of houses every single year, and we can basically approach them like an institutional buyer and say, we want the same access to those wholesale deals that you would sell to BlackRock, but we want that for ourselves, and we can pass that on to the individual investor. That's kind of the value add. But specifically, what we're talking about is a scenario where some of these builders will offer up to a 10% credit at closing. That is huge. And just to I mean, for someone that is just new, the real estate game is kind of learning about this is I've been investing personally for 15 years now, I've never seen things like this in any market cycle that's through multiple different market cycles, but I've never seen anything this attractive. So this is not normal. I want to say that's to start. But essentially, you can get up to 10% of a credit on a house that you can use however you want to. And so there's a few different ways that you can use this key. So if you're buying a $300,000 turnkey new construction home, you could, in theory, get $30,000 off and buy that at 270 of $30,000 of immediate equity. That might be a good strategy if you're looking to lower the mortgage payment on that or if you're looking to, say, refinance that property or sell it quicker, you have that immediate equity in that house, right? The other thing you could do with that 10% is you could use it to buy your interest rate down we have and that will get you below 4% you could literally buy your rates down into 3% with that much, if you want to put that much money into it, it'll cover your closing costs and buy the rate down significantly. So no matter what the Fed lowers, the rate to you are back actually down to one, 821, rates by buying your way there with that huge credit that obviously causes, you know, cash flow to skyrocket near ROI, to go way up. The third option that you can do is you can actually take that money, just get it back as a credit at closing. So if you're buying a house, say a $300,000 house, you're putting 20% down, which would be $60,000 on that house, you get $30,000 immediately back. That means you're into the house for 10% or half your down payment. That also skyrockets your ROI. So the point is, is there's a lot of creative things that you can do with these type of exciting credits, and they vary between five to 10% based on inventory, but they go up to 10% on some of these new construction inventory options. One last thing here, Keith, and this is hopefully I haven't lost anyone, but this is where things get really creative. As a company, we also work with different lenders throughout the country to bring the best financing options to investors. And we have a group of credit unions. They're all local to that geographic area that have Portfolio loans. Meaning these are not Fannie, Mae, Freddie Mac loans. These are loans they hold in house. These are true investor loans. You still have to qualify for them, but if you qualify, you can put as little as 5% down, meaning the they will finance up to 95% of your property. We have tons of investors doing this consistently, and you can do this on up to five properties, five investment properties, if you qualify. And so that means, in theory, you could buy a brand new construction house with a 5% down loan. You get a 10% credit back at closing that covers your down payment, your closing costs, and likely puts money back in your pocket. So that's not only buying a new construction, turnkey house with no money down it's actually getting paid to do so now there's a lot of economics to understand and cash flow, you know, with a high leverage and things like that, but that's a concept, and it's very exciting.   Keith Weinhold  29:09 Yes,  that last option that you mentioned seems to be the most compelling. I know. You've got investors that are learning about this and have already taken advantage of that, and again, that last option is getting the 10% credit that you're getting from the builder, coupling that with a 5% down portfolio loan from a local lender, which effectively would give you 5% cash back at the closing table. However, your closing cost of prepaids might be something like 4% so really, in a best case scenario, not only are you zero money down, you're getting about 1% of the purchase price, or $3,000 in this example back at the closing table. Now, of course that's going to affect your cash flow, but you got to think about what's important to you. So when one thinks about what's important to them, as an investor, with some of those options that you laid out there, Zach, I really highlighted the last one. What are some of the trade offs, the pros and cons of choosing these different incentives that the builders are getting right now?   Zack Lemaster  30:05 I'm so glad you asked this, Keith, because someone could be very excited about the idea of no money down, but that may not actually be the most strategic benefit to them. The nice thing is that there's so much incentive to buy right now with these type of, you know, kickbacks, these these incentives that, like you can structure a deal that's specific to you in your goals. But I would really encourage the audience to understand what is your exit strategy, or what is the next three to five years? Why are you buying this property, and how to strategically apply that? And if you don't know, if you need some guidance through that, let us help you kind of understand the different scenarios, but I want to work backwards first and mention one more thing, the no money down option would be really attractive because cash flow is going to be limited. In that scenario, you still have a loan that's covering 95% of the house, right? You would expect it, and you don't have to only put 5% down, right? You can put six, 7% down. So it's, you know, maybe break even cash flow. It's up to you. But the investors that really like that option, including myself, is the people that want to grow and scale their portfolio and stretch their capital the furthest. They maybe don't care so much about cash flow right now at this moment, they know that cash flow will increase over time. But if you're someone who really takes advantage of the tax benefits of real estate, this is way to, like, honestly, without any money out of your pocket, just taking some action, you can create this huge tax benefit, right? Because if you're buying five properties with virtually no money down, and let's say those are each $200,000 properties, you could essentially buy a million dollars worth of real estate that you own and control 100% of and you get the huge, immense tax benefit. So if you're doing things like Cost Segregation studies, like we do, you can create hundreds of 1000s of dollars of tax deductions without any money out of your pocket, just being strategic this way. But let's talk about some of these other options, because that was a real question. Where would it make sense for people? So again, if you say that 10% on a $300,000 house, that's 30k if you wanted to take that as a price reduction right out of the gates, that would obviously lower your mortgage, that's going to lower the mortgage payment amount to allow you to cash flow more. But I think the real the strategy, or the play there, is that you have built in equity in a house. This means that if your plan is to maybe put a HELOC on the house, do a cash out refinance in a few short years, as that House continues to appreciate again, because it's in a growth market, you're just going to cut that time in half because you have built in equity or if you plan to sell it. I mean, there are some scenarios where you could turn around and almost like, flip this in theory. You could do it. If you really run the economics, they want to be hugely profitable. But theory could be profitable if you sold the house with, you know, even immediately, because these builders are still selling these houses at retail, setting comps at full market value. So if you have 10% and you're paying a realtor 5% commission, they're still closing costs. But you could, you know, net some capital, but better scenarios, probably, if you're holding it for two or three years again, letting it continue to appreciate, your option is to sell it, then you're into capital gains, or again, 1031 exchange it. You know that might be good option to have built in equity. Or if this is going to be a long term hold for you, and you're just like, I love this area where I'm investing, I want to maximize cash flow. I want to have a long term loan that has a really low interest rate, then actually applying the majority of that capital to buy your rate down. That's going to obviously maximize cash flow, and that's also going to lock you in on a 30 year fixed loan at a really low rate, maybe you want to buy the rate down. So that's really the two options. We see most investors either taking the capital back and using the zero money down option, or buying the rate down, because that's going to allow them to really cash flow well, and they're just going to hold that property for a long period of time and let real estate do what it does. Those are kind of the different scenarios. I think that makes sense for different investors and understanding where to apply this incentive.  Sure, if you go for a high loan, to value loan at 95% or even 100% you really then pursue the infinite return strategy, have maximum leverage, or complete leverage in the property, have all the inflation profiting benefits magnified because you're borrowing more, but that scenario is going to reduce your cash flow. So it's all about what's important to you as a real estate investor, was that before you go, just tell us a little bit more. I think the listener is going to learn more on next Thursday's webinar, but just give us a bit more on property types, whatever else one might want to know. certainly. So this is mainly in the southeast, okay, so these would be markets like Texas, Alabama, Carolinas, Florida. We have some stuff in Tennessee, but, I mean, this is really the growth markets right where we have landlord friendly legislation, low taxes, we have affordability, but we have huge population trends moving to these areas. Those are the areas we want to be. Those are the areas where builders are building in because supply and demand. Those are areas where we're positioned for strong growth over time. Overall, our average rental increase is 6% year per year, and that's going back on data over the past decade. He's really good then, yeah, usually double national average there. So those are because we're specifically positioning ourselves in areas where. Where there's increase in rental demand and in population and economic growth, average home prices. I mean, we have new construction homes as low as 200,000 by the way. Side caveat, we also have some rehab homes that are in that 131 50 range that you can still use the low money down. Those don't have as high up incentives as the new construction do. But average price for new construction, two to 300,000 give or take. I mean, just buying them, if we're buying them with a conventional loan, with 20% down, you know, you're still looking at eight to 12% cash on cash returns. Let's just talk about the cash flow. So they're really good properties that cash flow well, which is hard to find today, and they're in good locations. I think that's really the main point I want to drive home as we finish up here is, these are single family residencies in good locations. You guys, I've invested, as you mentioned, in the nice century gave me, I mean, real estate allowed my wife and I to retire from our career paths as optometrist through investing. That did not happen overnight, but it did happen over a period of time, and it did take a lifetime, either, though, that's the thing I want to mention, over a short few years of intentional, dedicated investing, we learned that really focusing on growth markets and new construction houses allow for the best quality tenants, the most predictable returns and the best growth and rents and appreciation of the houses over time. To build equity, those are the kind of assets that we want to hold long term and will help you build wealth in a short period of time. So that's kind of been the direction of our business model. Is focusing on quality inventory in good locations with good teams that still have cash, good cash flow. But you mix in some of these incentives, Keith, and it's just like, it's a no brainer. And I do think this is the biggest thing, is sense of urgency here. This is unlimited inventory. This is not something that's normal, as I mentioned, and this buying opportunity that we're so excited about is not going to last forever, as we started this conversation, talking about the market shifting as interest rates continue to come down over time, that will continue to bring more buyers into the market and just less motivation from builders to offer these incentives. So guys, now is the time to take action and make really good investments now that will set you up for success for many years.   Keith Weinhold  37:03 The time is now. This is one of the best deals I've really learned about here in the recent past at all this could be of any benefit to it all. You really want to jump in on this, because, like Zach said, this won't last forever. Well, Zach, before I ask you for your closing thoughts again, for you to listen or be sure to sign up for GRE 's live event. This is for new build, turnkey income properties, potentially with zero money down. It is Thursday, October 24 at 8pm Eastern. Register at GREwebinars.com any last thoughts? Zach   Zack Lemaster  37:03 Keith, I just appreciate all the information you're putting out there, we are all thrilled about real estate as an asset class. It's been an interesting past few years. But again, just going back to the fundamentals, guys invest in good properties and good locations with good teams. And I promise you, if you do that consistently over time, you will reach financial independence or whatever financial goals you are striving to achieve. There's more millionaires or main real estate than the other asset class, and it's the most predictable Path to Wealth. There's no secret about that, but it does take consistency in any market cycle. So Keith, thanks so much again for having me on.   Keith Weinhold  38:12 Oh, those are great parting words, and you the listener, are going to get to talk more with Zach and one of our investment coaches. Next Thursday, it is live at the end, you will have a chance to have your questions answered in real time, in case you want to talk to Zach more. Hey, it's been great having you here. There's something in the market cycle there that we can really take advantage of. Builders have some excess inventory and see the money that they have tied up in them is something that they're paying a fairly high interest rate on to. And we have now partnered with some of the biggest builders, Lennar DR Horton and others, to get you this institutional grade buying power buying at scale for lower prices and better incentives, like Zach and I said, new builds in the southeastern US for purchase prices of 200 to 300k offering you up to a 10% credit at closing. So in a 300k rental single family home, you can then use as much as 30k and choose what you want to do with that. You could buy your interest rate down to 3% that's probably better if you're going to hold it long term or use on your closing costs and have some to use toward your interest rate. Or alternatively, you could just take it as a price reduction. A 300k property is now 270k maybe you can even enjoy the discount and sell it in the next, say, two to three years for a profit. You're likely not going to be immensely profitable that way, but you don't know what the market will do over time. All right, so it'll typically be a five to 10% credit, and that depends on the property that you seek here. All right, so that is the builder credit bucket there. And then, in addition to that, if you qualify, you have some good, say, credit and assets where you can get a financing option through local credit unions, and that is local to the area that your property is in that will extend you a portfolio loan. If you qualify, you'll learn about how to do this. And this means you could put as little as 5% down, and you can do that on up to five investment properties. Okay, so with those buckets, or those two incentives combined, you could then get a 5% down loan with a 10% builder credit so that 5% bank could cover your closing costs and even just put a little money in your pocket. You should sort of think of all of that as a best case scenario. You might be pretty excited about no money down, and you probably should, but, you know, attend the event and weigh the pros and cons and see if that is the right avenue for you. A lot of it comes down to what do you want to optimize your cash flow or your leveraged equity? This is an action taking time for you to get a good chance at being set up for financial success for years. I mean, it is opportunities just like this. I mean, you learn about these concepts on the benefits of real estate investing here on the show. And now here's something really tangible where you can get ahead. I mean, personally, for me as an investor, I've never had an opportunity like what we're talking about here. Before. If you so desire, you can own new build property and learn how to get it tied up at the event. Make sure to sign up and put it on your calendar. That is next Thursday, the 24th from the comfort of your own home, GRE 's live online event for new build properties in growth markets, potentially with zero money down. It is free to register, and as of now, there are spots available at GREwebinars.com Until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.   42:10 Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively.   Keith Weinhold  42:38 The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, get richeducation.com.

Get Rich Education
522: A Wealth Mindset in Real Estate Investing with Garrett Gunderson

Get Rich Education

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 7, 2024 44:59


Firebrand speaker and author of “Killing Sacred Cows”, Garrett Gunderson, joins us to discuss wealth mindset and value creation. Also, Keith touches on the impact of falling interest rates on various loans and the economy noting that lower rates can benefit savers and investors. Historical data shows that home prices have only fallen 6 times in the last 83 years, signaling the rarity of significant price declines.  Learn about the Rockefeller method, which involves using trusts and whole life insurance to preserve and grow wealth. Garrett advocates for investing in real estate, businesses, and intellectual property rather than mutual funds or ETFs. DM Garrett on Instagram to receive a free copy of his book on the Rockefeller method. Resources: GarrettGunderson.com or  Alon Instagram @garrettbgunderson Join our upcoming GRE live event right here! - ‘New Turnkey Properties with ZERO Money Down' on Thursday 10/24. Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/522 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREmarketplace.com/Coach Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai     Keith Weinhold  00:01 Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, talking about what falling interest rates really mean to you. 10 years of the GRE podcast, politics are overrated. How often do home prices fall? The latest in AI generated podcasting and then wealth mindset and wealth preservation all today on get rich education.   00:27 Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com   Corey Coates  01:12 You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  01:28 Welcome to GRE from Evansville, Indiana to Victorville, California and across 488 nations worldwide for an entire decade of your life now, this is Get Rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, what does it mean that we're in an era of falling interest rates from the recent peaks, rates of all types have fallen. Mortgage rates have fallen. The Fed funds rate has fallen, and that prime rate has fallen too. I mean the prime rate that you pay, that's basically the Fed funds rate plus 3% and why the prime rate matters to you is that can affect credit cards, home equity loans, automobile loans and small business loans, every one of them down, down, down. So to any savvy investor that knows what's going on in the 21st century? This can mean celebration for your wallet, for your finances. And look in old days, lower rates, that would be bad news, not good news. And why is this? Well, in olden days, and some people still have an outdated mindset, lower rates are bad because savings accounts used to make sense back in the day, and lower interest rates means lower rates for savers on their bank, savings accounts. Yeah, those 5% online only savings accounts are going to four and a half with the Fed's half point rate cut last month. Well, 100 years ago, you could be a saver. That made some sense, because their interest rates could reliably beat inflation over time, but not today. Today, since inflation transfers wealth from lenders to borrowers and inflation redistributes wealth from savers to debtors. For those like us that understand this and act accordingly, we are indeed the beneficiaries of lower interest rates. Now, there are other effects out there in the economy. Cheaper loans could lead to more m&a activity, more mergers and acquisitions that can benefit investment banks like your Goldman Sachs that facilitates those transactions. Well, what happens to real estate prices amidst lower interest rates? What happens is that they tend to rise now here on the show, you remember that since 2022 I have discussed what has surprised a lot of people. Amidst rising interest rates, the environment that we used to have, home prices tend to rise. And it has happened again. When mortgage rates tripled, prices kept right on rising. So you might wonder, well, wait a second, which is it or I'm confused, amidst rising interest rates, home prices rise and amidst falling interest rates, home prices rise too. And the answer is yes, look at history over hunches. To our newsletter readers, I recently sent you that great chart, a table, I guess it showed the national home price, rate of appreciation or depreciation for every single year, going back to World War Two and from 1942 until today, those 83 years, how many times do you think that home prices fell over the last 83 years? There were exactly six, six of the last 83 years, only six where home prices fell. Paradoxically, interest rates don't have much to do with home prices, and this is all per Case Shiller statistics. Over the last 83 years, there were only six down years. 72 were up. Five were even. And of those six down years in the last 83 five of the six down years were tied up in a once. I mean, it took a once in several generations confluence, a cataclysm of events to occur during the global financial crisis, 2007 to 2011 all at once. Back then, it was a housing supply, surplus, disgustingly lawless mortgage market, cheap credit and a preponderance of debt in the banking system since World War 2, 83 years ago, there was only one other year when home prices fell, that was 1990 when they fell by 1%. If you're waiting for Home prices to fall substantially, it is super unlikely that that is going to happen. Just look at history, and today's market has more than the housing shortage in loads of protective homeowner equity, which means low delinquency rates, and we have permanently inflated higher prices baked into replacement costs of all kinds, land, architecture, engineering, permitting, regulation, labor, building, equipment, construction materials all over the place, but us, you know, as real estate investors, we might be more interested in rent appreciation than prices just four years ago, you know, just then to pay $2,000 to rent a single family home. I mean, that was quite a nice place in the Midwest and South. And today I have modest single family rentals built 50 years ago that are about 1200 square feet, and now they rent for $2,000 $2,000 a month's rent that is common today, and we are rooting for rents to appreciate faster than home prices. And if you want to get our newsletter, you're probably on that list by now, and reading it, I just send some of the best charts in real estate maps to you. You can sign up free right now. Just do it while it's on your mind. Text GRE to 66866, that's text GRE to 66866, for our Don't quit your Daydream Letter. Political season is heating up. We are at a time where we are one month from a general election, and that means we're electing a new president, vice president, 1/3 of the Senate, the entire house of representatives and various state and local officials. Yes, politics matter. Politics affect real estate. So why don't I discuss this more here on the show. Well, I explained that to you a while ago. It gets divisive, and it rarely affects people as much as they think. And as you know, I avoid even using words like Democrat, Republican, left, right, conservative and liberal. And why do I do that? Because they are divisive terms. The problem isn't so much politics. It's when people get infected with the partisan mind virus. Yes, they put party over country. For example, a partisan political instigator will swear to god that the economy is great now, but as soon as, say, a different party wins an election, even if the economy is the same, although now say that that same economy is awful. In fact, a couple years ago, I quit my job as a writer for a publication that you've heard of before. I no longer contribute to them. They put party before country, in my opinion, I wrote an article for them about two years ago, and my article made it sound like an eminent recession was a question, not a foregone conclusion. Well, the editor let me know that their consensus of writers feels like a recession is eminent and that I need to change my article to reflect that that's because they don't like the administration that's in power, so I quit rather than edit my article. I mean, if you just ask an American the question, this question, do you wish that America were less divided? Well. Any sane person would answer that question, yes. Well, then why would you go attach divisive labels to the other side and attack them? It makes no sense. That's where the division comes from. So really, it ought to be about solutions and ideologies and not political parties. So this is another reason why, during political season, I don't play those games, and we stick to investing the economy and wealth mindset. I mean, virtually no other country in the world drags out their presidential election cycle this long. I mean, it's like a year and a half. Remember all those debates last year and names like Nikki Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy that were in the news all the time. I mean, other countries get this entire process over with in six weeks. Let's take a page from them, and that way we can have more constructive things in our news cycle.  Well, I am coming to you from the makeshift mobile GRE studio today, like I do some weeks, because this morning, I woke up in reading Pennsylvania. Reading is, in fact, my birthplace, and besides being the pretzel capital of the United States, one way that you know about reading is from the Reading Railroad property in the board game Monopoly. Yeah, it's one of the properties that you can buy and, I guess, collect rent on. And, you know, here we are a real estate show. So maybe it's appropriate that the namesake of my birthplace is immortalized as a property on America's best known real estate game. And it also might be appropriate that I'm back here because the 10th anniversary of the launch of this show is nigh this coming Thursday, on October 10, 1010, it will be 10 years since episode one of this show. And yes, the math, I suppose, checks out, because there are about 52 weeks in a year, and you are listening to episode 522, right now. Well, listen to this. This could blow your mind. Have you heard an AI generated podcast? And I don't just mean sort of where a robot reads a blog in monotone and then you listen to that audio file that's embedded in the article. No, that's not what I'm talking about. Here's what I mean. A few weeks ago, I learned that macroeconomist Richard Duncan, who was the first ever guest on this show back in 2014 Gosh, all these tie ins to GRE 's origins today? Well, Richard published some PDF charts, and he uploaded them to notebooklm.google.com, that's how you find this. And he clicked generate audio overview, and within three minutes, it had created a podcast with two virtual people having this pretty intelligent, engaging and even humorous conversation about his presentation on interest rates. I mean, wow, just listen to the first minute or minute and a half of this AI generated podcast here. And again, this is from about a month ago. So they're talking about the upcoming Fed rate cut that did indeed happen.   13:23 All right, ready to dive in. Today, we're tackling the big question everyone wants to know, will the Fed actually cut rates on September 18? It's the question on everyone's mind, for sure, and more importantly, for our listeners, what's it going to mean for them to help us unpack this whole thing. We're looking at this report. It's by economist Richard Duncan, called why the Fed will cut September 12, 2024. Duncan always brings unique perspective. He cuts right to the chase, which I appreciate. right! So let's jump right in. Duncan starts by talking about inflation, which, let's face it, we've all been feeling the heat from this past year. Yeah, it's been a wild ride. Inflation hit a pretty brutal 9% last year. I think my grocery bills are still recovering. Oh yeah, tell me about it. But the latest number shows down to 2.5% that's both by the CPI and importantly, the PCE Price Index, right? And that PCE is the one the Fed really keeps their eye on, exactly, which is why I wanted to ask you about that. Why is the PCE like the golden child for the Fed, why not just stick with the CPI? Everyone knows that one. well, It's all about getting the most accurate picture of inflation. Think of it like this. The CPI is like taking a quick glance at prices. You know, just a snapshot in time. Okay with you, but the PCE, that's more like a movie. It captures how our spending habits change as prices change, and that gives the fed a better look at those underlying trends driving inflation. So it's like the CPI with a little bit of a crystal ball. It's trying to anticipate what's going to happen. It's got it okay? So inflation seems to be cooling down, which is good news, right?   Keith Weinhold  14:56 Gosh, that's just really good, a totally realistic sounding AI generated podcast just from some PDF files. The macro economist Richard Duncan uploaded remarkable and you know that the quality of that is only going to get better. That's probably about as bad as it's ever going to be right there. And in fact, in another 10 years, listeners could find it rather cute or quaint that we find this remarkable today. A big thanks to Richard Duncan for allowing us to play that and also expect Richard to be back here with us on the show again before the year ends, and here on the 10th anniversary week of the GRE podcast, you know, it makes me wonder how expendable my job as podcast host is going to be. I hope that I'm here with you in another 10 years, and I completely plan to be.  Well  episode number one of the get rich education podcast back from 2014 is called your abundance mindset. So it's apropos to visit a mindset topic today I'm going to do that with firebrand Speaker This week's guest, Garrett Gunderson. Here shortly, do you want to live a life that is small and safe and sheltered? I doubt that you really do, but you know, safe decision after safe decision, that's what most people end up doing. Do you want your kids to live a small, safe, sheltered life? I mean, most parents want safety for their children, but they're going to have an outsized impact on others when they study and then take the right risks. We're discussing those types of wealth creation mindsets with Garrett. He's a really talented guy. He was last with us six years ago. He's done some stand up comedy. Many have remarked that Garrett looks like Jesus Christ. He's the author of some popular books, including killing sacred cows. Let's talk to Garrett. This week's guest is a pretty well known author and speaker. He helps you make, keep and grow your money to help you live your best life. He's an especially dynamic speaker, public speaker, and I'm confident that you'll be able to hear that on the show today, because he has a great knowledge base, and he speaks with this conviction on topics that make him so compelling. Hey, it's been a few years. Welcome back to GRE Garrett Gunderson.   Garrett Gunderson  17:38 good to be back. I thought that was a very honest, like, pretty well known, like, I'm not really well known pretty well. That's just enough to annoy my wife. Like, I'll be going through an airport and someone come over and talk to me, and she's like, ah, but I love it, dude. I love conversations with people that I don't know, and I just get to meet because if they engage in my work, it gives us a chance to connect. And sometimes it makes me look cool to my kids, which is always a good thing. You know what I'm saying, like my son will be with me and someone say, hey, love killing sacred cows, or, Hey, are you that guy on YouTube? I'm like, it could be me, or you might be thinking, I'm Jesus. You know what I'm saying. I look familiar, though.   Keith Weinhold  18:14 Yeah. Now you can tell your kids that I said you are pretty well known. And you know, Garrett, you're also a really keen and perceptive person. You can tell if somebody's poor within 60 seconds of what they say. Tell us about that.   Garrett Gunderson  18:31 Oh, man, that video has so much hate. Man. I put that out like it was my son's filming, and I'm just sitting in our kitchen, and I was just thinking about a conversation I had earlier that day, and in the conversation, it was like, more about complaining about the world, saying that they couldn't afford things, saying they didn't have the time, blaming everyone for their situation. And I was like, man, it's pretty easy to tell. And 60 seconds, I mean, I guess maybe is a rash statement, because maybe it takes three minutes or 300 seconds, like five minutes, and get deep enough, but you just find that there's a certain language to poverty, and whether that's just poor in spirit, whether it's poor in mind, or whether it's poor in the bank account, typically it's devoid of personal responsibility. It's leading the levels of inspiration. And this isn't to say that if you're wealthy, that you only speak inspiring conversations. I mean, I complain sometimes that happens. I get frustrated. I get disappointed in myself for not being nicer to a customer service person and like, have to really manage that sometimes. But ultimately, it's this language that is almost like a Marxist type of language, you know, that comes from a place of like, I want this. I'm owed that we deserve this. And I'm like, wait, wait, wait, like, who's going to produce that? And so it's something that's a fairly easy thing to detect with just a few questions. Like, if I'm given one question, I can tell in 60 seconds for sure.   Keith Weinhold  19:57 Yeah. I think a lot of times people start complaining. About something. People find money a scarce resource when they start, you know, complaining about gas prices or something like that, I think that's just really a classic one. It tells me where they're coming from. I mean, it tells me what their mind is occupying.   Garrett Gunderson  20:12 Right.  And if we're not excited about our future, if we're not developing our skill sets, if we're not really engaged in the world of value creation, it's easy to get frustrated about tax it's easier to get frustrated about inflation. It's easier to get complaining about interest rates or loan rates and all those kind of things. But what I find is the best way to outpace inflation is through skill set, and if we truly invest in ourselves and invest in other people so that we increase our quality of life and our enjoyment of it along the way, we increase all the skill sets that matter. You've mentioned that I'm a decent public speaker and that I'm articulate. That comes from going through writing courses and hiring speaking coaches and just getting the reps and doing comedy and the things that will help me to become a more effective communicator. And then it's really about becoming a better cash flow investor. I know that you teach people a lot around, you know, real estate and investing, and that's one of the big three assets in my mind, that helps people generate and create cash flow. But most people are trapped in this indoctrination where they set money aside and forget it. They wait for 30 years and hope for the best. They're very one dimensional of just paying off a loan and then hoping the retirement plan is going to get them there. And that's why they end up in this mindset where they're like, oh, I don't feel in control, because the outcome of my income is something that's dictated by the economy and not my own willpower, not my own skill set, not my own value creation. And I think that's why retirement is such a bad and faulty notion. My main statement in life is create the life you don't want to retire from. Now, I get it. In the industrial age, people need to retire because they were being worked to death and they weren't living for very long. It was an immensely valuable concept back then, a blue to collar world back then? Yeah, right. But in today's world, what if people just invested more time in selecting your career that mattered or had enough faith and took a leap on themselves to start becoming a better investor or start a business or be an entrepreneur where they get upside potential, instead of just begging for safety and security, instead of just wanting the entitlement of benefits, instead of just trading time for money, like that's an industrial age concept that we watched, whether it's our parents or grandparents, go through trading time for money, but we're in a world where that's not required any longer, because we do have technology, we do have artificial intelligence, we do have these things that are starting to displace The jobs that no one really wants to do because it beats down the body, and there's a lot of opportunity for those that are willing to grasp it and go for it, but it comes down to one key thing, value creation. And if we're going to be devoid of value creation, it's easy to tell in 60 seconds whether someone's poor because value creation was not part of their concept or their purview.   Keith Weinhold  22:40 And value creation is about expanding that upside. And a lot of poverty mindsets just complain about the downside their expenses. And you can't really do that much about your expenses. You can only lower them so much. Anytime you do, you're probably diminishing your quality of life anyway. And really, I think a lot of this mindset of lack Garrett comes back to the fact that, simply, most believe that money itself is a scarce resource. I probably believe that at one time, when I was younger, maybe you did too. And as I like to say, although I wasn't the first person that said it, the only place that you get money is from other people. So most people, which tend to be employees, think their way to increase their income is only if their employer gives them a raise, or maybe if they find a new employer that pays them maybe 10% more, or something like that. So they're limiting their upside over there because they think money's a scarce resource, because it's got to come from an employer. Somehow they're not thinking about, why don't you really expand your upside and start an Amazon business, or rent cars through Turo or Airbnb rentals, or what we do here at get risk education, help people with long term housing rentals. So it just kind of comes back to the fact that, you know, people's mind is closed off, and they just simply want to believe that money is a scarce resource.   Garrett Gunderson  23:57 They're adding to computer screens as we talk about this, you know, I mean, there's never been more money in the world than there is today. It's the most money there's ever been. We keep adding it. There's, you know, so much of it out there. But even if they stopped printing it, or they stopped adding it to balance sheets, there's an infinite number of times they can exchange hands. So if we use it to buy computers and clothes or food and shelter or entertainment like comedy and concerts, the more times money exchanges hands, the more values created. It's exchange that facilitates and creates wealth in the way that we create exchanges, serving others, solving problems and adding value. And here's the deal, we can have two parties do exchange with one another and both end up wealthier. It doesn't need to be a win, lose transaction. As a matter of fact, when people transact, they agree that what they bought was worth more than their money, or if they sold it, they agree that the money was more than what they sold. Otherwise they would have kept it. We don't do equal exchange. I wouldn't give you $1 for $1 right? There's no reason to exchange. It's unequal, which means, if you can provide something more efficiently than. I can for myself. I can pay you, which frees up my time to do what I most efficiently and effectively can do. I did triathlons because I was an idiot back in the day. Sorry for those triathletes, which is like a lot of work, man. And I don't love swimming, but I remember going to buy a triathlon bike. I just bought, like, a road bike. It was a big upgrade from having a huffy from Walmart, you know, like, oh, this $4,700 this is a while back, but it was carbon fiber. It was, like, amazing. And I thought, you know, I could never build this. So this $4,700 is actually really cheap, because I'm giving him $4,700 to build something that I can then go build something like write a book or do some consulting or do a speech that can inspire someone. And so that exchange was valuable. It's like if you bought killing cigarette cows. For me, you're saying that it was worth more than $20 I'm saying it was worth less because I already have the knowledge in my head, and so we both can end up wealthier. Unequal exchange is what facilitates wealth. What it lets us do is tap into our best abilities and tap into other people's best abilities. And that exchange ends up growing over time, and the more times money circulates because of Good Services and experiences, the more output there is. So look at today. Hundreds of years ago, if you wanted to listen to music, you had to hire a quartet. Now it's free for almost anyone, if you have any device of any sort, if you're willing to listen to a commercial here or there, you can listen to anything that you want. For the most part, you don't even have to pay for it. So think about that advancement. If you want to be anywhere in the world, you could be there in almost 24 hours or less, back in the day, that would have taken, you know, years for that matter. I mean, we have so much more wealth because we keep building upon previous wealth, previous ideas, and those blueprints we continue to grow from with new innovation and ingenuity. Therefore, the quality of life for someone that's middle class today is infinitely more than the middle class of hundreds of years ago, the amount of people that are hungry today versus years ago, even though we have more than 8 billion people on the planet, has gone down as a percentage, not up as a percentage. That's because of velocity and exchange. It's because of this notion that money's not scarce and resources have the way to be replenished, as long as we're stewards. Now, if the bison, if we kill too many of them, then they can't replenish, right? But if we manage that properly, you could actually eat the bison, use the skins, do all that kind of stuff, and still have that exist in the future. These people that don't believe in that believe that there's like a finite pie, that if one thing's gone, it's gone forever, not understanding value exchange, reproduction, apparently, and basic science either. And again, we can overdo those things and damage an ecosystem. So there is a balance.   Keith Weinhold  27:36 Yeah, that's right, when you talk about value creation, then you're really not talking about a person going out and trying to get their piece of the pie. Really more accurately what you're talking about. Here are ideas for expanding the entire pie.   Garrett Gunderson  27:51 Spam the pie. Expand your means you can budget and reduce. You said it eloquently. You said, Hey, there's only so much you can do in reduction of expenses before it just starts infringing and taking away from things that you value in life. There's a finite game there, but the expansion gain through co creation, through collaboration, instead of through competition, is absolutely an infinite pie that continues to grow as we add more value, as we serve more people, as we solve bigger problems, as we more deeply impact the people that we impact as we reach more people, these are things that can lead to more dollars. So I have this thing called the value equation. It's our mental capital, ideas, knowledge, wisdom, insights, strategies and tools multiplied by our relationship capital, people, networks, organizations, communities, friends, family, mentors, equals our financial capital. So financial capital is a byproduct of our stewardship of our mental and relationship capital. And the bridge between mental relationship capital is what we call business, or we call investing. So ultimately, Money Follows value. How do we add more value? Have a better idea. Impact more people. More more deeply. Impact the people you currently serve. Collaborate and offer more like it's an infinite pie and an infinite game. If we play it that way.  We're talking with speaker and author Garrett Gunderson, about the mindset of wealth creation. More. We come back with Garrett. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold.   Keith Weinhold  29:01 hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine at Ridge lending group NMLS, 42056, they've provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start Now while it's on your mind at ridgelendinggroup.com That's ridgelendinggroup.com. Your bank is getting rich off of you. The national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings if your money isn't making 4% Percent, you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work. With minimum risk, your cash generates up to an 8% return with compound interest, year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% sitting in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25k you keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back. Their decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And I would know, because I'm an investor too. Earn 8% hundreds of others are text family 266, 866, learn more about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund, on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text, family 266, 866,   Hal Elrod  30:54 this is Hal Elrod author of The Miracle Morning and listen to get it rich. Education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.     Keith Weinhold  31:10 welcome back to get rich education. We're talking with firebrand speaker and author Garrett Gunderson. You can learn more about him at Garrettgunderson.com. Garrett before the break, we were talking about the mindset in opening up one in order to create more wealth over time. Here, a lot of times, one way we talk about that is, don't just get your money to work for you. Get other people's money to work for you. You could actually use other people's money ethically three ways at the same time, in real estate, using the tenant's money for the income stream the government's money for generous tax incentives, and then the bank's money for the leverage, which is actually a greater wealth building force than compound interest. That's one example of how we do that here. But when one has become successful, oftentimes they want to make sure that that's lasting. They want to build a legacy, something that they can carry on. And I know you articulate that through the Rockefeller method. So do you want to tell us more about that?   Garrett Gunderson  32:05 I wrote this book. What would the Rockefellers do back in 2016 this study between really wealthy families versus their wealth lasted, versus wealthy families that decimated it, and the best study was really the Vanderbilt because they had more money than the US Treasury. One the railroad family, yeah, transportation. And you know what? They destroyed that Cornelius died, and then his eldest son doubled the estate nine years and then he died, and that was the last time their estate grew. It started to decrease after that. And 54 years later, the first Vanderbilt died broke, and so the last Vanderbilt family union didn't have any millionaires at it. I know everybody knows about like Vanderbilt University. They donated like, a million dollars to get that started. But, you know, that was pretty inconsequential compared to their overall net worth. But they didn't have a formula or format to create sustainable wealth. They own 10 mansions in in Manhattan. They don't own those anymore. They own the breakers in Rhode Island. The state of Rhode Island owns that now. So they lost this massive amount of wealth where the Rockefellers are just entering their seventh generation of passing on, well, seven generations, wow. And people that worked for the rock bellers, like the executives, they're still passing on, well, for this generation after generation. And most people don't make it past the third generation. And we could look at, you know, people like Walt Disney. We could look at people like JCPenney. We could look at people, you know, like the the Kennedy family and so many others that have used these two things to really create sustainable wealth. Number one is they use trust. The Rockefellers coined the term own nothing and control everything, whether that's a revocable living trust for people who are just starting out and don't have a substantial amount of wealth, or a domestic asset protection trust for those that have a decent amount of wealth, those are the two main popular ones. There are some offshore trusts. It gets onerous and complicated once you go offshore, but it does protect your assets. The second piece is using whole life insurance, so they have this death benefit that's on the insured, and they put that on their heirs, so that every time an heir dies, it replenishes the trust, and potentially even grows it, because there's these threats to the family wealth, there's taxes, there's inflation, there's interest rate fluctuations or market, you know, economic turmoil. So what they're doing is they're creating that level of stability, and they give them preferred interest rates to borrow from the trust versus a bank. So now your family can actually earn interest instead of paying interest. And yes, if your family is paying interest, they're paying it back to their future generation at Preferred rates. And so you could be one generation away from never needing a bank again and actually being able to capitalize on deals a whole lot faster. Specifically, we use whole life, because it transfers the risk to the insurance company. There's six or seven companies that are participating, mutual companies that have been around for over 150 years, always paid dividends. It protects your cash value from taxes. It protects it from liability and bankruptcy in over 40 states, fully and partially in every state. So what happens is, for an asset allocation decision. You can start moving some of your fixed income portfolio to this and have a better, more robust benefits type of situation, and then actually start to implement this Rockefeller method so that you can create generational wealth.   Keith Weinhold  35:12 All right, so the Rockefeller method using trusts and whole life insurance to preserve and grow your wealth, so as one's building their portfolio, amassing wealth, increasing income streams as they go along in their investor journey. Is there anything that they should keep in mind as they try to integrate some of these things from the Rockefellers?   Garrett Gunderson  35:12 Yeah, a lot of other insurance people try to sell these index universal life policies, but those won't work because they have too many levers of risk, and especially when you're building cash value, you might use that cash value to buy real estate. Then you might use the rental income to put the money back into the policy so you can buy more real estate in the future. So it becomes like a medium storage shed or unit for your cash that's protected, but now it comes with the death benefit, which, here's one example, for a real estate investor, instead of just, you know, rolling it over to the next property and rolling it over to the next property when you eventually sell, you can use a charitable trust. And a charitable trust, you can donate that highly appreciated piece of real estate, get a partial tax deduction, sell it and fund the trust and pay zero tax on your gains. No matter what your basis is, there's no tax on the gains. You're the first beneficiary of the trust, meaning you can take an income between 5% and 50% from the trust while you're alive, depending on the underlying assets, and then when you die, the charity keeps whatever's left over. But if you have a life insurance policy that will replenish what that donation was, therefore giving you 20 30% or more increased cash flow with an asset by making a synergistic allocation. Now, that's a lot of information in a short period of time, but it's more about planting seeds. And don't worry, I'll give everybody a copy of the book at no charge, so they can kind of read it at their own pace, or you can listen to it at their own pace, versus me condensing it into just a couple minutes.   Keith Weinhold  36:56 Oh, thanks. All right, well, we'll learn more about that resource at the end that sounds like that can be really helpful to a lot of people. And I guess Garrett, even though you're not as real estate ish as me, as we wind down here, you know, I think the place that you and I find the most common ground is we often say and help people with the things that sort of fly in the face of conventional guidance. I mean, you really just don't have to think about it that much more than if you just do normal stuff, average, mediocre stuff, you're only going to have a normal, average, mediocre outcome. So can you tell us about any last things that can help get people thinking differently and debunk some of this conventional guidance that really will never help get you much above lower middle class?   Garrett Gunderson  37:40 Yeah, if you're putting your money in mutual funds and ETFs, you're making a bunch of other people money. I mean, the big three is you want to focus on generating cash flow so you can create financial independence. Because if you have enough cash flow from assets to cover your expenses, every active dollar can build more assets. That's an exponential benefit to you. So now that you don't have to be forced to work, you've got a lot more freedom. And the big three for me are real estate businesses or intellectual property, which is kind of, you know, something that is part of business to a degree, but I consider a different asset class. Those are the big three. I have no money in the stock market. I have money in my businesses. I invest in myself. I invest in my vision. I invest in a team, instead of investing in things that I have no control over and I don't get cash flow from and that the economy can change, or that Wall Street's making money on whether I make money or not. So that's just one notion that I think we could probably, you know, agree, flies in the face of what everybody's teaching. That's the masses. But when you look at the wealthiest people, it's how they're implementing and what they're doing.   Keith Weinhold  38:39 And I think another place that conventional guidance really tells people to prioritize is paying down debt or paying off debt. I mean, making your debt free scream at age 34 you know, maybe that's not so bad, but maybe not. I mean, did paying down low to moderate interest rate debt and making that priority sacrifice your lifestyle and your family's lifestyle the entire time while you were doing it, and did it have a steeper opportunity cost, because you were not investing those dollars in things that can earn a greater return than their interest rates were they're using some of the vehicles that you talked about. So, you know, I guess what I'm getting at Garrett philosophically, one way I said it, is that the risk of delayed gratification is denied gratification?   Garrett Gunderson  39:23 Yeah, I mean, if we become sacrifice, how do we ever overcome that habit? I'm I'm scrimping, I'm sacrificing, yeah, I'm deferring. And then one day, what you're supposed to flip the switch be like, Okay, now I'm abundant. I'm gonna enjoy this money that doesn't happen. So that habitual notion of reduce, cut, eliminate, no one shrinks their way to wealth. It's a game of expansion and production. Yes, be efficient, be intelligent, be a steward, but don't become a miser, because misers, no matter how much money they have, never get to feel what it's like to live their richest life. It's always about elimination. Instead of enjoyment and utilization.   Keith Weinhold  40:02 Oh, that is just beautifully stated. I really can't say it any better than that, and that really brings it back full circle as to the best personal finance is probably growing your means rather than practicing living below your means for decades, and then you'll never get that time back. Well, Garrett, you've generated so many good educational resources. Why you've been the successful author and speaker. Tell us more about that.   Garrett Gunderson  40:26 Garrettgunderson.com is where a lot of those resources are. I write a blog like it's 2006 because I love to write and just get information out there. I've created a money persona quiz. So if you go forward slash tools on Garrettgunderson.com you can figure out what's the success or sabotage that happens subconsciously with how you deal with money. It's very informative and useful. I've written 10 books. I offered that if people DM me on Instagram, Garrett B, Gunderson, two R's, two T's, middle initial B and just say, Keith, get rich. Keith get rich. So I know it was on this program, I'll hook you up with the audio and a PDF of the book on me, so that you can hopefully just understand this Rockefeller method and improve your life and start building a legacy right now. Because if you're already doing real estate, that's great, let's make sure to preserve, protect and even perpetuate that wealth with some of the structures that could be integrated.   Keith Weinhold  41:17 Well Garrett, yeah, you have a lot of great resources and just a really wide spectrum of understanding of concepts all across a personal finance field. Is there any last thing you'd like to let our audience know about?   Garrett Gunderson  41:28 Just create the life you don't want to retire from. Design a life that you love. Create enough cash flow from assets to have that economic independence so you have choice and freedom daily of what you do and swing for the fences in that purpose, you know, that's probably the best advice that I could give.   Keith Weinhold  41:43 Why would you want to live your life any other way? Garrett Gunderson, it's been valuable as expected. Thanks so much for coming on to the show.   Garrett Gunderson  41:51 Thanks for having me.   Keith Weinhold  41:58 Yeah, a lot on both mindset and long term wealth preservation with Garrett Gunderson today, now, 15 weeks ago, on episode 507 you'll remember that episode called compound interest is weak, where I made a takedown about how compound Interest actually is not serving people. Leverage does serve people. Garrett also makes a takedown and critiques this myth about how people think compound interest builds wealth. A little review. There some comprehension from 15 weeks ago, compound interest has most people counting on the average annual return when they should be focused on the compound annual growth rate. A little review. Remember the average annual return means if you're up 10% one year and then down 10% next year that you broke even. That's the arithmetic thing. But that is a lie. The reality is in this CAGR, the compound annual growth rate, it reflects, if you're up 10% one year and then down 10% the next year, you're at minus 1% the geometric thing. And that's the reality, and that makes a retirement lifestyles worth of difference, and a retirement ages worth of difference like I thoroughly broke down for you in episode 507 coming up on the show here in future weeks, a familiar name like Tom wheelwright returns, and then new guests, like a former NFL player here on the show, if you want to reach out to Garrett Gunderson on Instagram for his best free resources, even the audio and pdf of his Rockefeller method of generational wealth preservation, again on Instagram, you can DM him at Garrett B Gunderson, he let me know later, all you have to do is send him my first name, Keith, and he will hook you up there. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, and I am supremely grateful and even in awe of your devoted listenership for an entire decade of your life and mine, here's to another 10 years. Don't quit your Daydream.   44:21 Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively,   Keith Weinhold  44:49 The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth. Building, get rich, education.com, you.

Get Rich Education
521: Terrible Predictions, "End the Fed" and Capitalism with Mises Institute President Dr. Thomas DiLorenzo

Get Rich Education

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 30, 2024 43:06


President of the Mises Institute and author of “How Capitalism Saved America”, Dr. Thomas DiLorenzo joins us to uncover the current state of capitalism and if it still exists in America. Earlier in the episode, Keith discusses the inaccuracy of economic predictions, citing examples like the 2023 recession that never happened, the negative impact of misinformed predictions on investment decisions and business growth.  Persistent housing price crash predictions have been consistently wrong despite global pandemics and higher mortgage rates. Dr. DiLorenzo advocates for #EndTheFed to reduce inflation and restore free market principles. Learn how voluntary exchange between buyer and seller through market prices communicates information and influences production. Resources: Learn more about Austrian economics and Ludwig von Mises through visiting mises.org  Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/521 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREmarketplace.com/Coach Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai     Keith Weinhold  00:00 Keith, welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, reviewing some terrible economic predictions and why it matters to you. Then the President of the Mises Institute joins us. Does capitalism still exist in the US and what would happen if we ended the Fed, today on get rich education.   00:24 Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, who delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show. Guess who? Top Selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit getricheducation.com   Corey Coates  01:09 You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  01:25 welcome to GRE from Syracuse, Sicily to Syracuse, New York, and across 188 nations worldwide, you're listening to one of the longest running and most listened to shows on real estate investing. This is Get Rich Education. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, now a lot of media companies and pundits and influencers like to make predictions. Listeners like learning about predictions and by engaging just a little of that each of the past few years on one of the last episodes of the year. Here, I forecast the national home price appreciation rate for the following year, many media outlets, pundits and influencers have made terrible, just absolutely terrible, predictions about interest rates and other financial forecasts. Last year, a majority of Pro prognosticators firmly forecast six or eight Fed rate cuts this year, for example, well, we're going to have far fewer, and that's because high inflation kept hanging around. Then there's the 2023 recession that never happened, yet both Bloomberg and the economist actually published some rather ignominious headlines, as it turned out, they published these in the fall of 2022 Bloomberg, big headline was forecast for us, recession within year hits 100% in blow to Biden, well, That was false. That didn't come true. I mean, 100% that doesn't leave you any room for an out. And then also published in the fall of 2022 The Economist ran this headline why a global recession is inevitable in 2023 All right, well, they both believed in a recession, and they believed in it so deeply that it got fossilized. Well, an economic archeologist like me dug it up.   Dr Thomas DiLorenzo  03:31 We are going to die   Keith Weinhold  03:35 well, but I didn't risk my life like Indiana Jones did there. This archeology, it only involves some Google searches. Well, here's the thing. What's remarkable about America staving off a mammoth recession and leaving all the other g7 nations in the economic dust is the fact that merely predicting a recession often makes it come true. Just predicting one often turns a recession into a self fulfilling prophecy. Yeah, recession forecast headlines alone, they can spook employers from making new hires and slow down manufacturing, and it can also disillusion real estate investors from expanding their portfolios. Well, the US economy grew anyway, besides the farcical prognostications about myriad interest rate cuts in a quote, unquote definite 2023 recession that never happened. You know, there's also a third forecast that so many got wrong. And you probably know what I'm gonna say. I've brought it up before, because this hits our world, those erstwhile and well still ever present housing price crash predictions. I mean this facet of the gloom boom really ramped up from 2020 One until today, even a global pandemic, new wars and a triplicate mortgage rates couldn't stop the housing price surge and the rent surge. A lot of doomsdayers just couldn't see, or they didn't even want to see that a housing shortage would keep prices afloat. They didn't want to see it because they get more clicks when they talk about the gloom government stimulus programs also buoyed prices, and deep homeowner equity cushions will still keep prices afloat. Ever since 2021 here on the show, I've used that rationale and more to explain that home prices would keep appreciating, but that the rate of appreciation would slow down, and it has slowed down since 2021 see YouTubers tick tockers. They notoriously use woe begone housing crash headlines, because that gets more clicks and then some of the rationale behind this. The reasoning is just dreadful, like, what goes up must come down, all right? Well, this is like, why does it matter? Who cares about wrong predictions anyway? What's the point? Well, people become misinformed. People waste their time on these things and see no one loses money on dismal economic predictions. But the damage is done, because when investors don't act well, then they didn't get the gain that they should have had. Businesses didn't get the gain that they should have had when they could have made new investment and hired new employees sooner. And of course, a recession is going to happen sometime. They occur, on average, every five to six years. It is just a normal part of the business cycle will collectively these three faulty economic predictions, rate cuts, a recession and a housing price crash. I think if you bundle them all up combined, it could be as bad as one doomsday prediction about worldwide starvation or the Mayan apocalypse. Remember that the wide to K bug, the acid rain, even that the internet is just a fad that ran a buck 30 years ago. World War Three is eminent, robots overtaking humans, or how about running out of crude oil. I mean, we're definitely all supposed to have jet packs in flying cars by now, right? But yet, did anyone have the clairvoyance to predict the stock market crash of 1929 or September 11 terrorist attacks, or Trump's surprise, 2016 presidency or Bitcoin hitting 70k A while back, or the coronavirus. So really, overall, the bottom line here with predictions is that no one knows the future. Control what you can maintain equanimity, add good properties, gradually raise rent, reduce expenses, create leverage and expect inflation truly the best way to predict the future is to create it in just that way. Well is the USA capitalistic nation today. That's what we'll discuss later with this week's guest. When Chuck Todd hosted the show Meet the Press, he interviewed AOC about this. Yes, I'm talking about us. House Rep from New York, Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, what she say? You   08:34 have said you are democratic socialist. Can you be a Democratic socialist and a capitalist? Well, I think it depends on your interpretation. So there are some Democratic socialists that would say, Absolutely not. There are other people that are democratic socialists that would say, I think it's possible. What are you? I think it's possible. I think you say to yourself, I'm a capitalist, but I don't say that. You know, if anything, I would say, I'm I believe in a democratic economy, but.   Keith Weinhold  09:03 okay, well, I'm not sure if that clears it up at all. And I've listened to more of that clip, and it just makes things more confusing. But I think that most people have trouble drawing a line between capitalism and neighboring economic systems. Where exactly do you draw that line? I don't know exactly where to draw it. When I think of capitalism, I think of things though, like removal of interventionist central planning and allowing the free market to run with few guardrails. And then there's an issue like labor unionization. I don't really know about something like that. This is a real estate show. I'm still forming an opinion on a topic like that. In you know, some of this gets political, and that's beyond the scope of get rich education. The Fed was created in 1913 that central planning, its central banking from 1987 to. 2006 Alan Greenspan reigned as Fed chair. Those were his years, and he became even more interventionist. And then his successor, Ben Bernanke, maybe even more so with quantitative easing and such. Let's talk about, should they end the Fed and capitalism with this week's expert guest. You very well may have heard of the late, famed Austrian American economist Ludwig von Mises today, the Mises Institute carries on his legacy, and this week's guest is none other than the President of the Mises Institute. He's also the number one best selling author of how capitalism saved America and his newer book with a title that I love, The Politically Incorrect Guide to Economics. Hey, it's great to have you here. It is. Dr Thomas DiLorenzo.   Dr Thomas DiLorenzo  11:00 pleased to be with you. Thanks for having me.Th   Keith Weinhold  11:02 Well, Dr DiLorenzo, for those that don't know, just tell us a bit in an overview about Austrian economics and what Ludwig von Mises stood for.   Dr Thomas DiLorenzo  11:02 Well, Ludwig von Mises was the preeminent critic of socialism and fascism in Europe, and in his day, he fled the Nazis literally hours before the Gestapo broke into his apartment in Geneva, because he was the preeminent critic of fascism and socialism, and he was also Jewish, and so he had to get out of town. And he miraculously ended up after wandering through Europe with his wife in New York City, and he taught at New York University for many years, until he died in 1973 and but the Austrian School of Economics is a school of thought. It has nothing to do with, necessarily, with the Government of Austria, the country of Austria, just this the founder of a man named Carl Menger happened to be from Austria, but probably the most famous or well known among Americans would be Friedrich Hayek, who won the Nobel Prize in 1970s he was a student of Ludwig von Mises and critics of interventionism, critics of socialism. We teach about free markets, of how markets actually work and how governments don't work. And that's in a nutshell, that's what it's about. And you could check out our website, mises.org, M, I, S, E, S.org, you can get a great economic education. We have a lot of free books to download. Some of them are downloaded 30 or 40,000 times a month. Still, it's even Mises old books like human action, first published in the 1960s and so you can get a great education just by reading our website.   Keith Weinhold  12:42 Well, congratulations, that's proof that you're doing an excellent job of carrying on the Mises legacy into the present day, a lot of which is championing capitalism. Do we have capitalism in the United States today?   Dr Thomas DiLorenzo  12:59 I was an economics professor from 40 years before I got this job as President of the Mises Institute. And I used to say we had islands of socialism in a sea of capitalism at the beginning of my career. But now I'd say it's the opposite, that we have islands of capitalism in a sea of socialism. And socialism, this data is not defined anymore as government ownership. That was, you know, about 100 years ago, the socialism. It's basically government control of industry and in addition to government ownership. So the instruments of the welfare state, the income tax and the regulatory state, is our version of socialism, or central planning, if you will. And it's the Federal Reserve the Fed, which is a government agency that orchestrates the whole thing, really, it's a big, massive central planning industry that controls, regulates basically every aspect of any kind of financial transaction imaginable. They list in their publications over 100 different functions of the Federal Reserve. It's not just monetary policy. It's a big regulatory behemoth, and so that's that's what the Fed is. That's what I think we have today. A friend of mine, Robert Higgs, a well known economic historian, says our system is what he calls participatory fascism. And fascism was a system where private enterprise was permitted, but it was so heavily regulated and regimented by the government that industry had to do what government wanted to do, not what its customers wanted it to do, so much, and a large part of our economic system is just like that, and we get to vote still, so that's where the participatory and comes in, and the pin of Robert Hinz.   Keith Weinhold  14:41 yeah, maybe at best, I can think of today's system as capitalism with guardrails on but the guardrails keep getting taller. And I think of guardrails as being, for example, regulatory agencies like the Fed in FINRA. In the FDA.   Dr Thomas DiLorenzo  15:01 It is the beginning of my career. You know, I studied economics and a PhD in economics, and there was a big literature on what's called regulatory capture. And it was sort of a big secret among US economic academics. There was all this research going on and how the big regulatory agencies created by the federal government in the late 19th, early 20th centuries, were captured by the industries that they were supposed to be regulating. Right? The theory was they would regulate these industries in the public's best interests. But what has happened from the very beginning is they were captured by the industries, and they benefit the industry at the expense of the public. But today, that's caught on thanks to people like Robert Kennedy Jr, frankly, has been a very popular author. He sold a gazillion copies of his book on Anthony Fauci, and in it, he explains in tremendous detail how the Food and Drug Administration was long ago captured by the pharmaceutical companies. And he's not the only one. I think that that is being more and more recognized by people outside of academic economics, like me, and that's a good thing, and that's sort of the worst example of crony capitalism. It's not real capitalism, but crony capitalism making money through government connections, rather than producing better products, cheaper products and so forth.   Keith Weinhold  16:21 I watched RFK Jr speak in person recently, and I was actually disappointed when he effectively dropped out of the upcoming presidential race. And I do want to talk more with you about the Fed shortly, but with all these regulatory agencies and how I liken them to guard rails. You know, I sort of think of it as a watchdog system that's failing. You mentioned the FDA. I know RFK Jr brought them up an awful lot, the Food and Drug Administration that are supposed to help regulate what we put inside our own bodies in our diet. But these systems are failing. We have regulatory agencies in industry, industry in regulatory agencies. I mean, look at the obesity rate. Look at all the ultra processed food that's allowed. Look at all the seed oils that are allowed in food that people actually think are healthy for them. So this system of capitalism with guardrails is failing almost everywhere you look.   Dr Thomas DiLorenzo  16:22 I wouldn't call it capitalism. I wouldn't use the word capitalism at all, other than crony capitalism, people can relate to that. You know, a lot of these regulatory agencies were lobbied for in the first place by industry. That while the very first one was the Interstate Commerce Commission, it was in the 1880s it was meant to regulate the railroad companies. The first president was the president of a Railroad Corporation, the head of the Interstate Commerce Commission. So talk about the fox guarding the hen house. That was from the very beginning. And so in a sense, this word capture theory of regulation, which Kennedy has used, they weren't really captured. They always were created by the government. The same is true of all the so called Public Utilities. It was the corporations, the electric power companies, the water supply companies, that lobbied for governments to give them a monopoly, a legal monopoly, in electricity, water supply and all these things that were called natural monopolies, but there was nothing natural about them. There was vigorous competition in the early 20th century in telephone, electricity, water supply, and that was all set aside by government regulation, creating monopolies. For example, in electric power, there's an economist named Walter primo who wrote a book some years ago showing that always have been several dozen cities in America that never went this way, that always allowed direct competition between electric power companies. And what do you know, better service and lower prices. As a result, they did dozens of statistical studies to demonstrate this in his book.   Keith Weinhold  18:58 Okay, well, that's a great case study. Why don't we talk about what things would look like if we took down one of these agencies? We're a real estate investing in finance show. Sometimes it's a popular meme or hashtag to say, end the Fed. What would it look like if we ended the Fed?   Dr Thomas DiLorenzo  19:18 Well, the Fed was created in 1913 in the same era, with all these other regulatory captured agencies were created, right? And it was created basically to cartelize and create a cartel for the banking industry to make it almost impossible to go bankrupt. They've been bailing out foolish bankers for 111 years. And of course, the biggest example was that as the crash of 08 after they they handed Goldman Sachs and other big investment banks billions of dollars. That was a direct assault on capitalism itself, because capitalism, as you know, is a profit and loss system. It's not a I keep the profits. You pay for my losses system. You're the taxpayer. But that's what happened with that. So the Fed would. Fall into that the Fed is actually the fourth central bank in America. We had three other ones. First one was called Bank of North America. Its currency was so unreliable, nobody trusted it went out of business in a year and a half. And then we created something called the Bank of the United States in 1791 same thing. It created boom and bust cycles, high unemployment, price inflation, corrupted politics. It was defunded after 20 years, and then it was brought back to fund the debt from the war of 1812 and so we had a Second Bank of the United States. It did the same thing, boom and bust cycles, price inflation, corrupted politics. Benefited special interest, but not the general interest, and President Andrew Jackson defunded it, and so we went without a central bank from roughly 1840 until 1913 so we've had experience of that. And what we had been was competing currencies, and that would be sort of a stepping stone. If we got rid of the fed, we wouldn't have to abolish the Fed altogether. We could amend the charter to the Fed to say you're no longer permitted to buy bonds. Can't buy government bonds anymore. That's how they inflate the money supply, right? By buying bonds. That's totally unnecessary. And we could just just that would be a great step forward, and we would sort of whittle away our $80 trillion debt, if you count again upon count the unfunded liabilities of the federal government,   Keith Weinhold  21:26 if we did end the Fed, what would the price of money? Which are interest rates really look like? Would a new market rate be sent by individuals and companies on the free market like Bank of America, with a customer or borrower settling on an interest rate that they both agree to.   Dr Thomas DiLorenzo  21:44 You know, the Fed uses sort of Soviet style economics, price control. The economists and are all getting all over Kamala Harris for recommendations for price controls on rent and other things. Well, the Fed price control. They control the price of money. That's what they do. And so there's a big, kind of a comical thing that here you have all these economists, if they were to teach economics in the week one, they would teach about the bad effects of price controls, and then they get a job at the Fed, and they spend their whole career enforcing price controls on money, and the interest rate would be determined by supply and demand for credit and inflationary expectations. That's what the market does. And you wouldn't have these bureaucrats at the Fed tinkering around with interest rates, creating tremendous arbitrage opportunities for Wall Street investors. With all the movements and interest rates, you'd have much more stable interest rates, and and you wouldn't have this ridiculous system where the Fed says we need to always have forever at least 2% inflation. And of course, they never meet that, and they lie about it. I don't believe for one minute that the price inflation right now is 3% or under 3% that's ridiculous, right? And so things should be getting cheaper. Everything should be getting cheaper because of all the technology we have. My first PC I bought in the early 80s for $4,000 and it was a piece of prehistoric junk compared to my cell phone today, that almost for free. Almost everything should be like that agriculture, but the reason it isn't is the Fed keeps pumping so much money in circulation, that it pumps up the demand for goods and services, and that's what creates price inflation. And by its own admission, that's what it does, even though it's charter, it's original charter said they're supposed to fight inflation. All of a sudden, about 10 years ago or so, they announced, south of blue, we always have to have at least 2% inflation. Congress had nothing to do with that. President had nothing to do with that, and the people of America had nothing to do with that. It was dictators like Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke that just make these announcements. And where does that come from when we live under the dictatorship of the Fed? And of course, the people who are hurt the most by the Fed are elderly people are living on relatively fixed incomes and are forced to become Wall Street speculators they want to make any more money other than their fixed income, where, you know, during the days of Greenspan, when they're pursuing zero interest rates, maybe the mortgage industry like that, but the people on retirement income were starving as a result of that. So it's been sort of an economic war on the retired population.   Keith Weinhold  24:24 Things should get faster and cheaper to produce, like you said. However, there's definitely one thing that's not getting faster to produce, that's housing build times. Housing build times have actually gone up, which is sort of another discussion unto itself. But we talk about the Fed and then setting prices. People wouldn't stand for setting the price or having price controls on oil or lumber or bananas, but yet we set the price of money itself. People have just become accustomed to that. Yet it's that money itself that we use to buy oil and lumber and bananas the fed with that dual mandate of stable prices and maximum employment. If we did abolish the Fed, what would happen to the rate of inflation?   Dr Thomas DiLorenzo  25:12 Well, we would have less inflation. It's supposed to what we replace it with. There's some system would be a replacement, but we wouldn't have the boom and bust cycles that we have now. There's been research in the past 100 years or so of the Fed, and what the academic researchers have concluded is that the Fed has made the economy in general more unstable than it was before we had the Fed and price inflation. That's a joke. The dollar is worth maybe three cents of what it was in the year 1913 right when the Fed was created. So it has failed on all accounts. And so if we got rid of it, we would reverse that. The idea would be to start out with a competing money system. And I'll tell you a quick story is, you know the word Dixie from the south, you know land of Dixie that was named after a currency by a New Orleans bank called the Dix D, I x 10 in French, and it was 100% gold reserve. It was backed by something real and valuable, and it was so popular as even used in Minnesota. But that's why the whole south, the states in the South, were using this currency, because it was so reliable. But during the Civil War, the national currency acts imposed taxes on the competing currencies and taxed them out of business and established the greenback dollar, as it was called, as the Monopoly money of the country. We didn't get a central bank during the Civil War, but we got that. And so that's the kind of system that we would have. Friedrich Hayek wrote a whole book about this, about competing currencies, called the denationalization of money. He poses that as a good stepping stone to a freer market in money. And like you said, Money is the most important thing. Is most more important than bananas or shoes or any of these other things that we might have price controls on.   Keith Weinhold  27:01 All right, so we're talking about the case for ending the Fed. What is the counter argument? I mean, other than the government wanting control, is there a valid, or any academic counter argument for keeping the Fed in place?   Dr Thomas DiLorenzo  27:16 The Fed has an army. I call it the Fed's Praetorian Guard of academics. There was a research article published by an economist named Larry White at George Mason University several years ago, and he found that 75% of all the articles in the academic journals regarding money, monetary policy and so forth, are by people who are basically paid by the Fed, one way or the other. Either they're fed economists, or they've been invited to a conference by the Fed, or they're an intern some relationship with the Fed. The late Milton Friedman once said, If you want a career as a monetary economist, it's not a good idea to criticize the biggest employer in your field. So there's a lot of nonsense about that. And so yes, you'll have all sorts of rationales, but it basically comes down to this, that we think we can do central planning better than the Russians did under communism, because the Fed is basically an economic central planning agency, and there's no reason to believe Americans are better at it than the Russians or anybody else. And it basically comes down to that, you know, studying the past 111 years that's showing Well, yeah, they've been trying that for 111 years. They've made the economy more unstable, and they have failed miserably to control inflation. And why should we give them another chance? Why should we continue along this road? We shouldn't So, yeah, there'll be all kind of excuses the late Murray Rothbard, who was one of the founders of the Mises, who once answered this question by saying, It's as though people said, Well, say the government always made shoes. 100 years ago they took over the shoe industry. People would be saying, who will make shoes if the government doesn't make shoes? The government has always made shoes, right? But the government has not always monopolized the money supply. It's only like I said, we abolished three Feds in our history. In American history, they weren't called the Fed, but they were central banks. And the Fed is called a central bank, and we've done that three times. We've abolished more central banks than we have kept in American history.   Keith Weinhold  29:17  We're talking with Dr Thomas D Lorenzo. He is the president of the Mises Institute. About, is there really any capitalism left more when we come back, this is Get Rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold,  hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine, at Ridge lending group and MLS 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation, because they specialize in income properties, they help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start now while it's on your mind at RidgeLendingGroup.com, that's Ridgelendinggroup.com. Your bank is getting rich off of you. The national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings. If your money isn't making 4% you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk, your cash generates up to an 8% return with compound interest year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% sitting in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25k you keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back. Their decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And I would know, because I'm an investor too. Earn 8% hundreds of others are text family to 66866, learn more about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text, family to 66866.   Kristen Tate  31:11 This is author Kristen Tate. Listen to Get Rich Education with Keith Weinhold, and Don't quit Your Daydream.   Keith Weinhold  31:27 welcome back to get rich education. We're talking with Dr Thomas DiLorenzo. He is the president of the Mises Institute. You can learn more about them @mises.org and Dr DiLorenzo. Frederick Hayek, an economist that you mentioned very well known and a student of Ludwig von Mises, he believed that prices are a communication mechanism between a buyer and a seller. Say, for example, there's a new style of single family rental home that everyone wants to rent. So therefore the rent price goes up when other builders see that the rent price goes up, that brings in more builder competition, and with more competition, that brings rent prices down, and then the world is filled with abundant housing, rather than a scarcity of housing. So that's how I think of a free market system within capitalism as working, as defined through Hayek.   Dr Thomas DiLorenzo  32:22 You know, the consumer is king. Von Mises once wrote about the same point where he said that people mistakenly believe that it's the bankers and the CEOs and the businesses that control what gets produced and so forth, but it's really the consumer. You build a housing development then people don't want those houses. You'll find out real fast who's in charge. It's not the mortgage brokers. It's not the bankers. It's not you, it's the consumer. That's the free market system, and if you do without it, and not using the free market system, whether it's for money or anything else, is kind of like trying to find your way around a strange city with no street signs, and the prices are the street signs that tell us what to do, exactly like you said, if there's strong demand for a certain type of housing, that'll drive the price up, and that'll tell the home builders, we can make money building more of these. And they will do that. Nobody tells them. The Chairman of the Fed doesn't have to tell them that the President doesn't have to tell them that Congress doesn't have to issue a declaration telling them to do that. That was the Soviet Union where they tried that. And that's the great thing about the market, is that the consumer can tell the richest man in the world like Elon Musk, go play in the traffic. Elon Musk, if they don't like his cars or whatever he's producing, even though he's the richest man in the world. And he understands that he's a pretty successful businessman, I would say, and so so he understands that the consumer is his boss.   Keith Weinhold  33:53 Well, what else do we need to know? You have published a lot of celebrated books, from how capitalism saved America to the politically incorrect guide to economics. What else might a real estate investor or an economic enthusiast need to know today? Oh,   Dr Thomas DiLorenzo  34:10 well, I think everybody needs to be their own economist. You can listen to the talking heads on TV and on podcasts and all that, but educate yourself and become your own economist. Because a lot of the people on TV, as you might see on the news, they have an ax to grind, or they have a sort of a hidden financial interest beyond what they're saying, Be your own economist. And that's why I'm selling my website, which is everything on it, it's for free, mises.org, and there are quite a few others too. You don't have to go to school, you don't have to get a degree. You can get a good economic education, for example, on money. We're in the middle of giving away 100,000 copies of a book called What has government done to our money. I'm Murray rothbar. You go to our website, scroll down to the bottom, and you can fill out a form online, and we'll send you free books and. You can educate yourself that way. And so just in general, I think that's what people need to do. I taught MBA students for many years who are people in their 30s or maybe even early 40s, who didn't have economics degrees, but they were really into it, and for the first time in their careers, they decided maybe I should understand how the economic world that I live in and work in every day operates rather than going through your life and your career without you. Might know all about real estate sales, but it's also useful to know about the economy in general and how things work.   Keith Weinhold  35:35 And when one becomes their own economic student and they take that on, I think it's important for them, like you touched on to not just consume the economic news that's on CNBC or other major media, because that doesn't really tell you how to create wealth. It might inform you, but it doesn't necessarily tell you how to take action. For example, on this show an educational channel, you might learn about a story about rising inflation like we had starting three or four years ago. And here we talk about how, okay, if inflation is going to be a long term economic force, you may or may not like what the Fed is doing, but rather than save money, borrow money, outsource that debt service to the tenant on a cash flowing asset like a single family home or an apartment building. And that inflation that you're learning about on CNBC will actually benefit you and debase your debt with prudent leverage on a property, for example, so not just consuming the news, but learning and educating yourself and acting.   Dr Thomas DiLorenzo  36:34 Oh, sure, well It just so happens that last night, I was talking to a friend of mine who's a real estate professional. They're all talking about, Oh, are we going to have a slight drop in interest rates? And I reminded them that there will be a part of the market if they see it, if we do have a slight drop in interest rates, we'll look at that and say, well, maybe this is a new trend. And so I'll sit back and I'll wait. I'm not going to buy now, because I think the interest rates are going to go down even further in the next six months there were, there would be some segment of the market that thinks that way. And so that's just one little thing. Another thing I would mention is that one of the basic tenets of free market economics is that voluntary trade is mutually beneficial. People buy and sell from each other, because both sides benefit. And that's very important for any business person to keep in mind as you structure business deals, because you know about business deal that is successful is basically, I will give you what you want, and you give me what I want, and we're both happy. And that's that's one of the main tenets of how the market works. Voluntary exchange is mutually beneficial. So think about how to make it mutually beneficial, and you'll succeed in making a deal.   Keith Weinhold  37:45 Well, it's been an excellent discussion on Is there any capitalism left, and how would it look like if we turned the course and created more capitalism here in the United States? It's been great having you on the show.   Dr Thomas DiLorenzo  37:58 Thank you.   Keith Weinhold  38:05 Yeah , again, Learn more @mises.org or look up books by Dr Thomas DiLorenzo. His viewpoint is that there are now merely islands of capitalism in a sea of socialism where those conditions were inverted last century. We've got to end the complex between the government and corporations that these watchdogs are basically powerless when the fox is guarding the henhouse. Dr dilorezzo says we could change the Fed charter so that they couldn't buy bonds, which should reduce inflation. So he does offer a way forward there, a solution.  In capitalism, he consumer is king. This is a good thing. You yourself are empowered because you get to vote with your dollars. So therefore what you buy more of society will see and make more of but a prosperous, progressive economy that should be able to produce goods and services that are constantly cheaper because they get more and more efficient to make with innovation, but centrally planned inflation makes them more expensive, at least in dollar denominated terms. So progress should make things cheaper? Well, then everything should take fewer dollars to buy, homes, oil, bananas, grapes, but it doesn't, and it won't anytime soon, like I mentioned in the interview, there single family build times are taking even longer. That's not more efficient, and they're sure not getting cheaper. In fact, the National Association of Home Builders tells us that from permit to completion in 2015 it took 7.2 months to build a single family home. By 2019 it was up to 8.1 months and then. Last year, the time required to build a single family home from permit to completion was 10.1 months. That's not the side of an efficient economy. So basically, therefore, in the last eight, nine years, the time to build a home has gone from 7.2 months up to 10.1 months. That is a drastic increase in a short period of time. Just amazing. And we now have data after covid as well, broken down by region. The longest build time, by the way, is in New England, where it is 13.9 months to build a home from permit to completion. Gosh, such inefficiency. But despite all that stuff that you might find discouraging like that, I want to go out on a good news note here some encouraging sentiment for you, if you champion free markets, then invest in us rental property down the road, there is no centrally controlled ceiling on what you can sell your property for. Most places don't have rent control. In fact, there's been no federal rent control on private property since World War Two. And somewhat ironically, you benefit. You actually benefit from government backed loans at these low fixed rates, and now they're moderate fixed rates. You often get these through Fannie Freddie or the FHA. See you benefit from that particular government backing as a savvy borrower for rental property. And on top of this, you use the GRE inflation triple crown to flip over that not so capitalistic inflationary force. You flip it upside down and use it to your benefit, profiting fantastically from inflation. So you know how to take the situation you're given and use it to your advantage rather than your detriment. Big thanks to Dr Thomas DiLorenzo today, longtime econ professor and current Mises Institute president, more ways to build Real Estate Wealth coming up here for you on the show in future weeks, as always, with the dash of economics and wealth mindset. Until then, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, Don't Quit Your Daydream.   42:28 Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively,   Keith Weinhold  42:56 The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, getricheducation.com.  

Get Rich Education
520: How to Use Other People's Money for Your Rental Property Loan

Get Rich Education

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 23, 2024 42:36


Keith discusses his journey from an entitlement mentality to realizing the importance of wealth creation through real estate investing and shares the real estate shockwave that nobody is talking about. We are also joined by Caeli Ridge, President of Ridge Lending Group, as she explains the differences between owner-occupied and investor mortgage loans. Hear about the ease of entering real estate investing with no formal qualifications or high income required. Learn the concept of demographic shockwaves and how the aging population will influence housing demand in the future. How to ethically use other people's money to build wealth for yourself before you even own a property. Learn about the key differences between owner-occupied mortgage loans and investor mortgage loans, particularly the use of rental income in qualification. Resources: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/520 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREmarketplace.com/Coach Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai      Keith Weinhold  00:01 Keith, welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, I'll discuss when I was an employee with a scarcity mindset, the real estate shock wave coming that no one's talking about, then, how you can ethically use other people's money to build wealth for yourself before you even own a property today, on get rich education.   00:24 Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold rights for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, who delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com   Corey Coates  01:09 You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.    Keith Weinhold  01:25 welcome to GRE from Springfield Ohio to Springfield, Missouri and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are listening to get rich education. It's great to have you back for another week, and I genuinely appreciate your listenership, and I am grateful to have such a large audience. I've got to tell you, admittedly, coming out of college and in my first couple full time jobs, I wasn't always a good employee. I guess I had somewhat of an entitlement mentality. I'm not sure where that came from. I don't know that I can blame anyone else on planning it inside me. I don't know where I got this notion. It sure wasn't from my parents, but I kind of felt like somebody owed me a job just because I have a college degree and I'm good at showing up on time, yeah, like, I'm just a good representative for your company. I mean, now I can see that no one owed me a doggone thing. In fact, I owed my employer value. An employer actually takes a big risk on you when they hire you, paying you to train you until you're productive there. I mean, the hiring process itself is even expensive. Well, though I felt like someone owed me a job just out of college, somewhat Oppositely, I never expected any sort of high income at all, and I had quite a modest income in my first couple years out of college, just like a lot of recent college grads do, until it grew into something more. But my humble geography degree, it conditioned me to think lower income. I knew that going to college in Pennsylvania for geography in what interested me, I mean, that's what I went with, what interested me not what I could make money in well, then I couldn't find a job in my geography field at all. No one would really pay me to describe Asia's mountain ranges to them. So what I ended up doing is working under engineers at a construction and engineering firm, a few of them, one engineering firm really liked me and designated me as their new marketing person. Of all things, they wanted me to call prospective clients on the phone and meet them cold in person, because they just thought somehow, when they met me, that I could win new business for the engineering firm, just I guess, based on how I communicated with other people at other engineering companies, even though I couldn't even talk the language of engineering. Well, anyway, these disciplines engineering, and really it was construction inspection that I did for a while. You know, that stuff, even the marketing stuff, it just didn't fill my soul. And you must have felt this way at your job before. If you don't feel it perpetually, you aren't aligned with your purpose on this earth, and you're spending so many of your faculties and so much of your waking conscious life at that job. Well, motivation to escape that is what got me reading about wealth mindset and real estate investing. Since anyone can do it, no degree needed, no certification, zero formal qualification. And now I think I mentioned this to you before, but it's worth bringing up here again, a turning point is when I read one life changing sentence, just one little what is it? A. Five word sentence in a rich dad book, that pivotal paradigm shifting, course correcting sentence was, being wealthy is a choice. And when I first read being wealthy is a choice, I just didn't believe it. I thought that Robert Kiyosaki, the author, was wrong. Well now I know that he was right. I had thought that being rich is unobtainable. You had to be born into it, so unless you won the lottery, you can't achieve more than middle class. Well, I was wrong about that. Now I can't really say something like, oh, well, a college professor said that rich people are bad or, you know, I don't have that story. I can't blame anyone else for growing up with a limited, scarcity mindset, really, other than myself in the context that was created around me. I mean, growing up in Pennsylvania, I just knew that the carts family and the domileskeys, they had more than us. And that's just the way it would always be. It's sort of preordained, and other families had less than us, and these family trajectories were just cast in stone as to how it had to be. But the good news is that it's not, and this is still what makes America great, the fact that it takes zero formal training, zero risk parents, and not even a high salary for you to do something like get a three and a half percent down payment loan for owner occupied FHA fourplex or 20% down for a single family rental that produces income from day one in The Southeast or Midwest, you can plant that seed that get other people's money working for you seed in just that way, even if you're interested in something as unprofitable as geography. Now, a huge reason that people disparage the wealthy is rooted in jealousy and envy, and that is not good. There's no goodness in those emotions, and that is because people don't think it's obtainable for them. It's obtainable for almost anybody. Learning that it is within your reach that completely breaks down your resentment of the rich. Yes, indeed, being wealthy is a choice. Well, people are obtaining wealth in today's real estate market. Here, Redfin reported that through the latest quarter ended real estate investors bought fully one in four of the nation's most affordable homes. That's up 3% year over year. And as Redfin puts it, it's a sign that investor activity is stabilizing, and as homeownership remains out of reach for many Americans, real estate investors are coming out of hibernation to take advantage of robust demand from renters. So investors are buying a greater proportion of affordable homes, some of them through our marketplace, GRE marketplace. Now over the long term, let's think about how US housing is going to be positioned for sustainable demand. Demography is destiny. That's a quote attributed to 19th century philosopher Auguste coon Tay, it means that the size and structure of a population will influence its future. So then all we need to do is track the age of a population over time to sharpen and give clarity to a forecast. It is axiomatic that in 10 years, a 25 year old will be 35 No kidding. Well, what's important about the age of 35 is that is the average age of today's first time homebuyer. It's between 35 and 36 All right. Well, the US is peak birth year occurred in 2007 we know that just look at demographics. Well, then add 35 to it. Add 35 years to 2007 This means that, on average, they will buy their first home in the early 2040s a lot of people are going to be forming their first household, whether it's rent or buy around the year 2040, I mean, the peak in all of American history, a lot more people will need homes. In fact, more than 13,000 Americans are turning age 35 every single day for the foreseeable future for more than a decade. This year is the first year where we've ever had over 13,000 Americans turning 35 every single day. And that is projected to continue to happen every single year through 2035 and that's as late as the Census Bureau projection that I have goes on. On that stat this baked in demographic housing demand. Hey, if we don't get serious about building more housing fast, and it's likely that we won't, this will be analogous to a demographic shock wave that hits the housing market. The population aging into homeownership is projected to exceed the population aging out, as in the death rate for a long time. This will pump housing demand, and that's not all. I've only talked domestically so far. This doesn't even account for additional demand from immigration. And immigrants tend to be younger and are renters for a long duration, or just forever. On top of immigration, the average number of people per household is falling as well. In 1960 3.3, people live per household in 1990 it was down to 2.6 by 2023 it was down to 2.5 this means that more housing is required just in order to shelter the same population. But of course, the population won't stay static. So to keep piling on with the housing demand here, the overall US population is projected to grow as well, from 342 million today to 383 million in 30 years. That's per the CBO. The demographics for senior housing are even more bullish. And of course, when I use the word bullish like this, this bullish sentiment that's from the investor side. If you're looking to buy your first home or find a place to rent, this is all more discouraging than perhaps all of our perpetual struggles to live a balanced life or lose weight. This baked into the cake. Demand is almost perfectly predictable, and it's of seismic importance to the real estate market. And yet, despite that fact, you know, more investors curiously fixate for month after month on something like the Fed's interest rate decision or the next jobs report. I mean, this is both harder to predict and way less significant than the sustainable demographic demand for rental housing that you got right there. So really, to sum up, this segment demographics reveal that housing demand should stay high for decades, long term, then you should expect higher home prices, higher occupancy rates and higher rents. And you can benefit by owning many rental properties. And our guest and I are about to discuss how you can do exactly that own many rental properties, and how to do it efficiently with less cash out of your pocket, including how you can start using other people's money before you even own a property when you're trying to qualify for a loan on a rental property, in some cases, you can Use a portion of the tenant's rent income toward your qualification income. Let's talk with this week's guest. There's one place that's created more financial freedom through real estate than any other lender in the entire nation that's time for a big welcome back to their president, Caeli Ridge.   Caeli Ridge  13:23 Keith Weinhold, my friend, thank you for having me happy to be here, sir.   Keith Weinhold  13:26 Oh, it's so good to have you here. You're a longtime friend of the show and so many of our listeners that you've helped originate investor mortgage loans. Caeli leads Ridge lending group. They're an investor centric lender. She does such a good concise job of explaining specifically what real estate investors need to know in optimizing your loan positions. In fact, on a previous episode, she once broke down every single line of a closing disclosure form for us one by one, detailing each individual closing cost and prepaid item and in there, besides being specific income property loan experts, they're really thorough and helpful that way. Well, Caeli, tell us about the key differences between owner occupied mortgage loans for buying a primary residence and investor mortgage loans for a rental property.   Caeli Ridge  14:17 The key things are that on a rental property, probably the biggest difference is going to be that for a rental property, there's additional incomes that potentially we get to use to help offset that new monthly liability, aka the mortgage payment, p, i, t i, principal, interest, tax and insurance, we have access to income potentially to help offset that. So in the debt to income ratio category, it can be a huge boon or a huge benefit, depending on what the individual's qualifications are. Additionally, in that same theme, we're not just confined to a conventional Fannie Freddie loan for investors. We have things like the DSCR debt service coverage ratio that you would not be able to apply to a primary residence, but also allows for income to help identify whether the property qualifies for financing.   Keith Weinhold  15:04 So for prospective investor borrower is wondering whether we'll have enough income to qualify for that property or not. Is it a certain percentage of the tenants rent income that is used in the investor borrowers qualification income?   Caeli Ridge  15:19 absolutely, so conventional full doc mortgages they are going to receive in the acquisition year formula, because there's two formulas that will be used in underwriting. One is called the acquisition year. The other one is called the Schedule E I'll focus on the acquisition year. This is applicable from the date that they acquire the property and until that tax year's Federal tax return is filed. I needed to find up to in a minute they get up to 75% of the gross rents minus the proposed p, i, t, I, principal, interest, tax and insurance. Now I say up to because it depends on two primary criteria that the borrower must possess in order to get the full 75% so think about it this way. There's three buckets. Okay, the first bucket gets the full 75% of whatever the gross rents are. The easy math example that I give, let's say that the gross rents are $1,000 a month. The PI ti proposed payment is 500 a month. If they're in bucket number one, and they get the full 75% of 1000 they have 750 bucks, right? And from that they're going to subtract out the $500 of mortgage payment. In that example, it would leave them with a gain positive 250 so that individual came to us with a debt to income ratio of x as a result of purchasing this investment property, their DTI is going to go down because they're $250 richer monthly. So 75% is the maximum you can use in the acquisition year. That individual in that bucket has to demonstrate two things. One, they have a primary housing expense, whether that's a mortgage or they rent, either is fine. And then second, they need to be able to demonstrate that they can they've had 12 months of history in owning investment property. So if they have both of those two things, they get the full 75 if they have one or the other, they're in bucket number two, which gives us an offset. They cannot have the full 75% they don't get the full gain, but I can offset. So going back to my example, using $1,000 of income and $500 of mortgage payment, they can't have the 250 gain, but I can give them up to 500 making that a zero, right? It's covered completely the mortgage payment. It's not increased any debt or anything in the example. So DTI would stay exactly the same as where they began, when we started. And then finally, bucket number three would mean that individuals that have neither of those two things, no primary they live rent free, no primary house expense, and they do not have 12 months demonstrated history currently, of being an investor. They get zero of the rental income, so they've got to support the full new payment within their DTI and keep it within that 50% threshold. So that was a long explanation to the question, but I think that that pretty much covers it.   Keith Weinhold  17:56 Now, That's really helpful. Okay, that can help the borrower's debt to income ratio. I guess a lot of cases is going to be helping it out by a small amount. What if, say that investors buying a new build rental property and there is no tenant, hence no rent income there yet.   Caeli Ridge  18:11 I'm so glad you asked. So on a subject property basis, that is the property in which they're purchasing at the moment in time. It's called the subject property. Those properties do not need to be tenant occupied. We can use assumptive rental income from the appraisal on a rental property that will come with some additional forms. It's called a 1007, it's just the number on the page. Those are rental income comps. The appraiser has given us an average of what those rents are going to be, and that's what we're going to use the 75% calculation on.   Keith Weinhold  18:41 Okay, that's really good to know new build or resale rental property, that's going to work the same with either one there. Now I know oftentimes that one wants to qualify. When we look at non order occupied properties, rental properties with conventional conforming loans from Fannie or Freddie, typically, one puts 20% down on those properties we've talked before. I think one can put as little as 15% down, although they would have PMI in that case, or alternatively, rather than putting 20% down, last time I checked, they could put 25% down and get a lower interest rate. So can you talk to us about the interplay of the percent down payment for rental property.   Caeli Ridge  19:21 I'll start by saying, more often than not, when you do the math the capital expenditure, or in this case, the difference between 5% down 80 versus 75% divided by the monthly payment difference, you're going to find that the leverage is going to outperform the higher 80% will outperform the lower 75% but absolutely, to your point, the payment is going to be less for two reasons. At the 75% level, the interest rate will be lower because you've got more skin in the game. The interest rate, loan level, price adjustment for 75% is going to be more attractive than it will be at 20% down. So the rate will be lower. And of course. The loan amount is lower, so both of those combined characteristics are going to create better cash flow, it's true, and a lower monthly payment. However, the math that I always want to promote, that people are doing is looking at it side by side, all you have to do, and it's actually much easier than people, I think, assume. So you figure out the capital expenditure difference. Let's just use 100 grand, okay, because his math is simple. So you've got $5,000 in additional capital that you'd be bringing to the table for the 75% option, right? Versus retaining the five grand, the payment difference is 50 bucks a month. Okay? Whatever the number is, all you're going to do is take the five grand and divide that by the payment difference, and that will give the individual the number of months it takes them to recapture that capital for the savings. Generally, my opinion, per an investment property is that if that number is in excess of 36 months, it's going to take you over 30 or three years to recapture that capital versus the savings. I'd keep my money because I can do one of a few things with it. If I chose to, I could cash flow the 50 bucks myself every month for 100 months, if that was the math. Or I could apply that five grand and use it with some other monies, perhaps, and buy another investment property, or put it in different investment asset class that would provide a return so more often than not, when they do that math, my belief is, when I do it, I'd say even 95% of the time, the higher the leverage is going to be, the better return numbers.   Keith Weinhold  21:27 We're philosophically aligned that way. We're leveraged proponents here, typically the smaller down payment, 20% is going to be better for you long term than 25% even though you'll get a somewhat lower interest rate on a rental property, putting 25% down rather than 20% when we pull back, we look at the interest rate difference between an owner occupied property and a rental property. What is the spread between the interest rate? Of course, you're going to pay higher interest rate on a rental property because it's a lot less likely that the borrower is going to walk away from their own home than they would a rental property.   Caeli Ridge  22:02 exactly and this is a great segue into those LLPAs that I always like that we spend some time talking about. So llpa, loan level, price adjustment. So for the GRE listeners, this is a more complicated concept, so I'm going to try and quickly break it down. Keith loves it when I get so wordy. So llpa is a positive or a negative number that associates with the individual characteristics of the loan transaction. So one of those characteristics, obviously, is occupancy. The loan level price adjustment for a primary residence versus an investment property is quite different, and for the reasons exactly that you described, there's a lot less risk in a primary then there will be in a rental. Because if an individual needs to choose between defaulting on where they live and an investment property, if it came down to that, obviously they're going to maintain, yeah, so they got to choose. So skin in the game, risk, etc, generally speaking. And there's all those other variables too, credit score, loan size, loan to value, property type, purchase versus refi, those are all unique llpas That will have their own unique number. But in general terms, an owner occupied where you live is typically going to price out an interest rate about one percentage point lower than you would find on an investment property, generally, if we're comparing apples to apples.   Keith Weinhold  23:15 talking about that risk difference for the lender, just like in the 20% versus 25% down. Example, there's less risk for the lender when you put 25% skin in the game. Hence the lower interest rate there too. Caeli, tell us about fitting the right mortgage type to the borrower. And of course, there are so many types. There's 30 year versus 15 year, fixed rate mortgages versus Adjustable Rate Mortgages, interest only, DSCR loans like you touched on. So tell us about getting that right fit for that individual borrower.   Caeli Ridge  23:49 This is a bit of a rabbit hole. So what I would start by saying is we do at Ridge take a lot of time on the front end and identifying not only what their needs are, their goals are, but obviously what their qualifications are, and marrying all of those things together and coming up with a roadmap that I like to call it, depending on where the individual is in their journey of real estate investing, as the tax returns may continue to be filed, and how aggressive they want to be with their deductions, maybe some cost segregation. I know I'm getting a little bit technical here, but because we maintain and have all of those products, it's very, very uncommon, or very rare, that we find an investor, potential client, that we do not have some sort of loan product to satisfy what their end game or end goal is. And you know, maybe we continue to graduate them. Let's say that they start in a DSCR because they can't qualify for Fannie Freddie today, but that is their ultimate goal. We're going to provide them with the insight and the background or the feedback that plants the seeds and gets them to that place in six months or a year, or whatever. So I hope I answered the question, depending on their individual needs and goals and qualifications, of course, really will dictate which one of those is going to be applicable.   Keith Weinhold  25:00 We've got a lot more to discuss, including, is it easier to approve w2 incomes from a day job versus 1099 from contract or gig work? And more, we're talking with the nation's foremost expert on income property. She is the president of ridge lending group, Caeli ridge. More, we come back. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold.  hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine, at Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage, you can start your pre qualification and chat with President Chaley Ridge personally. Start now while it's on your mind at Ridge lendinggroup.com. That's ridgelendinggroup.com. Your bank is getting rich off of you, the national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings. If your money isn't making 4% you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk, your cash generates up to an 8% return with compound interest year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% sitting in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25k you keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back. Their decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And I would know, because I'm an investor two, earn 8% hundreds of others are text family, 266, 866, learn more about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text family, 266, 866   Robert Kiyosaki  27:00 This is Rich Dad, Poor Dad Author Robert Kiyosaki, listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, Don't Quit Your Daydream.   Keith Weinhold  27:18 Welcome back to get rich education. We're talking with Ridge lending Group President Chaley ridge. These discussions are great, because debt, through leverage, builds wealth even faster than compound interest, as I've discussed, and Caeli is really the linchpin in her company, and help makes that happen with reliable income property loans and Caeli today, there are a lot more people with sharing economy income, gig economy income, or doing contract work, and they're paid with a 1099 form that shows their income for that year, versus a w2 employee wage job. So can you tell us about whether it's easier to approve those that have a w2 income and that versus the 1099   Caeli Ridge  28:03 I don't know that I would classify it as easier as harder. It's just different. So on the 1099 first and foremost, if you don't have a 24 month history of having that kind of income, you're not going to get a conventional loan. And assuming that we're going to kind of keep on that path of Fannie Freddie's. Because remember, guys, if you can't fit into those boxes. We've got 10 others that we can look to to get the financing for. But if we're in the Fannie Freddie, that's really where this is applicable, the 1099 and the w2 I mean, they're really equal in terms of the overall process. The difference would be that with 1099 you must have that 24 month history. The calculation is that we're going to take an average, it gets a little bit convoluted, like anything else that is leverage or financing related, but a 24 month average of 1099 unless we can show that that individual, let's say that they're self employed and maybe a Schedule C, and they've got their 1099 coming in through that way. If they can show five year history of having license or being self employed that way, that instead of having to use a 24 month average, we'll use a 12 month average, and that may be to their advantage. Let's say that the most recent year filed is in a bit of a decline from the prior year. Let's just use 2022 and 23 let's say 23 is a little bit lower than 22 a 24 month average is not going to be as big a number than if I were to just to be able to take the 12 month average of the most recent year. So if that individual can demonstrate they have five years of being or receiving that kind of income, then instead of being a 24 month average, I get to choose and just do the 12 month average. So that would be one thing about the 1099 that I would say otherwise, yeah, they're just different. I don't know that one is harder than the other. As long as the qualifications are there, they're there.   Keith Weinhold  29:43 When I think about this, I guess it does make sense from the lender perspective. If you're paid and shown income there on your 1099 from sharing economy work, gig economy work, or being self employed, that's more volatile work than having a day job. Um, as an employee.   Caeli Ridge  30:01 Sure, absolutely. And if you can demonstrate that you have that history and you've been able to consistently earn and have those numbers, it's okay, yeah, but without the 24 months, you're not going to get a conventional loan. You're gonna have to look at DSCR or something else.   Keith Weinhold  30:15 We're talking about what it takes to qualify for income property loans today with Ridge lending Group President Caeli Ridge, when we talk about that qualification bar that needs to be met. Caeli, you see so many loan applications in there. You have a team. You look at and deal with so many situations when you're free, you even pick up the phone, sometimes yourself, and you will talk to individual borrowers. So what do you see in there as the top reasons for not qualifying for an income property loan.   Caeli Ridge  30:42 The top reasons for not qualifying for a conventional loan probably is debt to income ratio, yeah, more often than not of the three basic criteria, which are assets, enough cash to close or reserves, credit and then DTI, I would say it's the DTI category that more often than not, is the culprit for qualifying or not. And it may be as simple as how they filed their last year's tax return and saying, Okay, before you file 2024 don't do that until you send Ridge a draft, so that we can get ahead of what you may not have known to look for last time. They could be very simple, little easy fixes. And you know, sometimes maybe it's they don't want to pay the extra taxes, which sometimes that might be required. In which case we say, okay, let's pivot over to the DSCR options. In which case, by the way, just as a quick sidebar, I'm finding that gap is starting to narrow a little bit to the point that it's a lot more affordable in terms of the investment property and what cash flow is expected than it used to be. The differences between a Fannie Freddie rate and a DSCR rate is starting to narrow a little bit. So if you have to be DSCR, I would not shy away from that just because you assume I think it's going to be more reasonable for cash flow properties.   Keith Weinhold  31:52 Yeah, I'll tell you, when I was an employee as a day job worker grinding in my eight by 10 cubicle, as it was back in the day, and I was buying income properties. Yeah, the main thing I would get held up on is that my debt to income ratio, my DTI, was too high, and my salary was pretty strong, although not fantastic, not astronomically high, but I felt like I was a guy that was pretty good, pretty prudent with my finances. And yeah, it didn't feel good to be told hey, Keith, to lower your DTI. You need to pay off your 3% automobile loan that's at a nice fixed interest rate. I didn't want to have to do that, but I was willing to do that to retire the small loan in order to qualify for the big loan.   Caeli Ridge  32:36 That makes sense. I might just offer a comment in that regard. What you may have experienced at that time could have been what we call an overlay in the industry. So, yes, like anything, right? Lenders aren't created equal. Because we're so investor friendly and focused, we are going to go by the purest form of those Fannie Freddie guidelines. It's called a seller's guide. And as an example, let's just say that Fannie Freddie gives you 75% of the subject properties, gross rents, whereas B of A or I'm just picking on B of I don't know why, but some other lender may impose an overlay. It's like layers of risk and saying, No, we're not going to give you any rental income credit whatsoever, even though the guideline says that we can do it, our overlay says, No, we can't. So depending on who you're working with, credit unions are a little notorious for that being a little bit more restrictive in their box of guideline. So it may not always be what you think. So if you've had a lender, tell you DTI wise, you don't qualify, but you feel like this is not quite right. You should double check that, because it may be an overlay.   Keith Weinhold  33:34 Everyone is interested in interest rates. It's been so interesting with what's happened the past few years, ever really, since the covid Emergency cut took place in 2020 and the volatility that we've seen in interest rates, then we saw interest rates max out in this cycle at about 8% almost a year ago. What does this declining interest rate environment mean at a mortgage loan company? And what do you see for the future of rates there?   Caeli Ridge  34:02 Well, rates have been coming down. If you guys are watching the headlines, you're seeing those sound bites. We have started to see some more refinance activity than we were seeing before, certainly additional purchases as we start to see interest rates come down, I am of the opinion that we're going to continue to see some improvement in the rate department, dependent on some of the jobs reports that we'll be getting soon, so we'll see. But My money is on that, we'll continue to see some nice tailwind in the rate department throughout the rest of the year, and who knows what's going to happen? I mean, this is our election year, etc. We'll see how the rest of it plays out.   Keith Weinhold  34:33 How does a prospective borrower get their financial house in order themselves before getting a hold of you and your team there, what are some of those checklist items that they should do themselves at home first?   Caeli Ridge  34:47 like I said a bit ago, so you've got those three primary criteria. If you're wanting to qualify for those conventional full doc loans, think about your credit Do you know what that credit score is? Now, depending on some other variables, it doesn't have to be 800 Credit scores to qualify. I mean, we've got clients as low as 650 that are able to get financing conventionally, because they've got compensating factors, similarly for assets on the investment property side, the down payment and the closing costs and the reserves, none of those things can be borrowed or gifted. And that's very different than if it was an owner occupied, gifted and borrowed funds are okay for an owner occupied, for an investment property, they have to be sourced and seasoned, meaning your own funds over the last 60 days. So think about that. What your down payment is going to be an estimate of closing costs and make sure that you have the appropriate amount of capital. And then finally, that debt to income ratio. That's a slippery or one to try and calculate that for yourselves. But if you think about your minimum payments on your credit report. That's really all that goes into it. Minimum payments, not the debt load. The minimum payments on the credit report divided by the monthly income, gross income, you should be able to come up with a number, and 50% is that threshold. So if you can kind of just take that kind of mental back of the napkin of your own, you should have a pretty good gage on whether or not you think you're going to be in this box, or if getting into the game, or continuing to be in the game, is going to require some alternative loan types.   Keith Weinhold  36:05 Inflation has been such a story for the past three or four years, but some people aren't aware that there's actually been credit score inflation. Last time I checked, the average credit score had been slowly rising in the United States. What's the highest credit score that gets one the lowest rate.   Caeli Ridge  36:22 We're staying in the Fannie Freddie department, 760 and above is all the same bucket, if the individual qualifications are identical, if this one has an 850 credit and this one has a 760 credit, exactly the same in the interest rate department.   Keith Weinhold  36:35 And then, once they've engaged with you, what about locking in their interest rate. What duration did they have prior to closing? Tell us about that timeline.   Caeli Ridge  36:45 So an interest rate can be locked on a 15 day lock, a 30 day lock, a 45 day lock, even a 60 or 90 day lock, typically it's a 30 day lock that's the average. The shorter the period of lock, the better the rate and or points that you would pay. And the longer is the adverse right? The higher the rate of the higher the points. I like to look at locking an interest rate, usually when we get the appraisal back, because an appraisal can be the piece that might delay or there may be some issues. So I generally like to see the appraisal first. We've been in such a volatile area with interest rates and what might be happening in the ups and downs, etc. I've broken that rule quite a few times over the last couple of years, I would say today, floating may be to our advantage, just because we feel like rates are on the run and that they may continue to improve. Keeping in mind, once you lock in your interest rate, it is locked. Ridge does have a policy that if interest rates were to fall five, eight of a percentage point or point 625, you would have a one time automatic float down option. It's highly unlikely, and that's why we can kind of put that in there. But if it happened, we would honor that. Otherwise, when you're locked, you're stuck with that rate. You can't expect that if an eight through a quarter point comes off of or rates come down that much, that you're going to get a different rate. The only way to do that would be to let the existing one expire for 30 days and then relock market, which is not advisable.   Keith Weinhold  37:59 Yeah, you the investor, has to think about how important a lock really is to you in this declining interest rate environment, almost everyone expects mortgage rates to fall more slowly than they rose. They spiked up so fast in 2022 Caeli, how does our audience engage with you? Get Started and go on their path to getting investment property loans.   Caeli Ridge  38:24 Three ways to reach us. Obviously, we've got our website. Please check us out there. There's a lot of good information, ridgelendinggroup.com you can email us at info@ridgelendinggroup.com, and then finally, toll free is 855-747-4343 855-74RIDGE is that easy way to remember, and we'll be here on standby. Thanks, Keith.   Keith Weinhold  38:43 Ridge is the same place where I get my income property loans. It's been great having you back on the show. Thank you. Yeah, strong. Well laid out material from cheyley here, as always, let me give us a perspective on creating value by having a good loan rather than not having the debt. Remember that just four weeks ago, here on Episode 516 it was the episode about is every debt worth paying off? And the short answer is no. I got a couple questions from listeners of that episode basically asking the same thing. Well, just say that interest rates are 6% and basically they're asking, well, if I pay all cash for a property or for a car, it doesn't matter what it is, then I avoid paying 6% interest. So right there is my six points of arbitrage. Well, to that, I say, okay, but look what if you think you can achieve a 12% investment return? Borrowing at six to invested 12 is a 6% spread. That's 6% arbitrage as well. But here's the thing, you've got a big advantage of doing this with the loan rather than the paid off condition. This is because. With the loan, you still have the use of your money. You haven't given it away. You still have your money, plus the six points of arbitrage in the paid off condition. You've got six points of arbitrage and you don't have the use of the money any longer. That's the big difference, and that's the value of having a loan, as long as you can service the payments. Getting back to mortgage loans, in today's episode, there are so many loan types for property, conventional, Fannie, Freddie's, dscrs, Portfolio loans, bridge loans, rehab loans, recourse and non recourse loan types, balloon loans, arms and a lot more. Caeli and I didn't discuss their all in one loan, which is like a big, flexible HELOC that you can put on your property. It's such a good product that can help you. You can ask about their all in one loan. When it comes down to what are the factors you need to be most attentive to? They are your assets, reserves, credit, income and debt to income ratio, unless dependent on the loan type that you want. So much attention is paid to interest rates, and some attention is warranted. They surely matter. Be mindful, though, that a quarter of a percent interest rate change on a 30 year loan per 100k borrowed that is just a difference of about $15 in monthly payment, $15 if you go from, say, 6% down to five and three quarters percent, so it takes a rate drop of a full 1% for a savings of about $60 then once you have some of Your finances in order, you can go ahead and do just what I've done for my own properties. For your next income property loan, you can give them a call or start at Ridgelendinggroup.com Until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, Don't Quit Your Daydream.   41:58 Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively.   Keith Weinhold  42:18 The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building, getricheducation.com.

Get Rich Education
519: Threatening New Taxes You Might Need to Pay. Tom Wheelwright Explains.

Get Rich Education

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 16, 2024 46:10


Tom Wheelwright is back by popular demand, our most recurring guest in GRE show history. He's a CPA, an International Authority on Tax, and Best Selling Author of “Tax-Free Wealth” amongst many other titles. We focus on the potential unrealized capital gains tax, which would tax the increase in property value even before sale. Tom explains the implications of this proposal and the broader impact on tax policy.  We cover the Democrats' proposal for capital gains tax at ordinary income rates, capital gains on gifts, and capital gains when you die. The proposal for a billionaires tax, which would tax unrealized gains at $100 million, could potentially extend to lower net worth individuals over time. Real estate income can result in a negative tax rate, increasing cash flow after taxes. Learn about the benefits of working with a knowledgeable tax advisor. Resources: GetRichEducation.com/tax Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/519 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREmarketplace.com/Coach Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai      Keith Weinhold  00:01 Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, this week we're talking about the value of the raw land that comes along with your property, the importance of an as built survey in real estate. Then it's tax topics with pro Tom wheelwright, the specter of an unrealized capital gains tax, higher capital gains tax rates, how gambling is taxed, and how to permanently reduce your overall tax burden. Today on get rich education,     00:33 since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com   Corey Coates  01:18 You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  01:34 Welcome to GRE from Essex County England to Essex, Massachusetts and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get rich education before we talk taxes, let's talk about the land, the raw land, the lot that comes along with your property. Investors don't spend much time thinking about it. Yet the land is sometimes worth more than the home or structure that's on it, per the FHFA, land constitutes 32.2% of the value of the average US single family property in a metro area. Now the inexpensive land prices nationally, they are predominantly in what I'm classifying it as three US areas, the Midwest, the southeast and Appalachia well, where you have inexpensive land. Oh, that also happens to be where the cash flow for long term rentals resides. Land costs more by the water because people want water activities, water proximity and water view. So the lower costs are inland, and land also costs more by the water, because coasts and shorelines constrain development, sprawl that limits supply and a limited supply of buoys up prices. Consequently, the highest land values are mostly in the Northeast Corridor, from Boston to DC, Miami, coastal California and Honolulu. Yes, Manhattan values are flat out extortionate for raw land now, Seattle, Madison, Wisconsin and Boulder, Colorado. They are three places with really high land values as well. Seattle and Madison are on geographic isthmus. And isthmus is a narrow strip of land with water on both sides. It's interesting how Nashville's nascent population influx made its land values surge inside a cheap sea of southeastern US land values now costly land areas like these ones that I've been talking about on the coasts, they could work well for short term vacation rentals like Airbnb and VRBO, your classic waterfront and beachfront weekly rentals, but they do not work for long term rental cash flow. Texas Land values are sort of low to medium. Land near the Mississippi River and its major tributaries have low costs because rivers are efficient transportation networks, prohibitively high land costs. That's one reason, actually, why alternative building methods just really aren't as cost effective as some people think. I'm talking about things like 3d printed homes, prefabbed homes, tiny homes and shipping container homes, well, all of them have got to sit on land, just like conventionally build homes do. And there is a land cost. Talk to a tear down specialist, and they'll tell you that in some older homes, 100% of the total value is in the l and. And in practicality, it's actually even more lopsided than that. The structure can have negative value because demolition is not free. So for you to get an idea yourself, your property tax bill, it's going to show you your split. That's where you'll see the assessed values broken out for both your structure and the land. So the bottom line here is that cash flowing properties have low land values, typically 25% or less of the total property value. That's generally what you want to look for. And I swear the only thing that's more barren than raw land is the creative naming process for new developments. There is such a lack of creativity in these development names. I'm talking about names like Willow Creek Estates, stone bridge crossing, or what else do they name a new housing development? How about VISTA, view heights? They all have these idyllic sounding names that somehow just all sound like each other. Well, we're talking about raw land when you get in contract to buy a property, the seller side is expected to provide you with an as built, it often still comes in the form of an old fashioned piece of paper and as built survey, what it is is a plan view, a bird's eye or aerial view of your property. It's not a photograph, but a drawing, and it shows you the dimensions and the placement of structures on your property, and it includes things like fences and other features like easements. Now, lenders don't always require an as built before granting a loan, but it's a good idea to ask to see one before you wrap up your next deal. If you want to in your offer, you can even require that a recent as built be done by a surveying company. All right. Well, what exactly do you look for on an as built once you have one in hand, first see that the house or apartment building that you're buying is properly set back from the property lines to meet zoning requirements. If the six foot side setback is only five feet 10 inches, then you'll have to address that before you buy even if it's five feet 11 inches. Now it's possible that the jurisdiction that you're buying in will grant a letter of non conforming status, but if not, the structure is going to have to be adjusted. Another item to look for on an as built are encroachments. This is where part of a neighbor structure protrudes over the lot line and onto your property. And encroachment is really only acceptable if you're willing to grant the neighbor an easement in perpetuity for their encroachment onto your land. But why would you want to do that? The third thing that I want to mention that you should look for an as built is the existence of easements. An easement that just means that another party has a legal right to come over onto your land and use it. Yeah, and easements are actually quite common. It's not as threatening as it might sound. A common one is that as your as built would show, say, a five foot wide by 60 foot long easement. Is there that a utility company has access to. Well, that's something that makes sense. It's for the common good, but just be mindful that an easement cannot have a structure with a permanent foundation built on top of it, alright, because an electric company or a water company might have to excavate there. Most people think of easements on the raw land, but there are also aerial easements, for example, an overhead power line where the roof eaves are not allowed to intrude on that airspace. So to review what you learned so far today, the best cash flow properties typically have low land values, often about 25% or less of the tolerable property value. And an as built survey is an aerial view drawing of your property and its dimensions on an as built look to see that it meets zoning requirements like setbacks and look for encroachments and easements. It is resale properties where it's more important to look at as builts than it is for new construction properties.  As we're about to bring in tax pro Tom Wheelwright shortly, business owners and real estate investors really get so many of the best tax breaks in the US Code. But you've got to know. How to find them, or else work then with a CPA that does know how to find them, that really knows how to navigate their way around the tax code, people that make high salaries pay high taxes, as much as 50% you remember I did that episode a few months ago, high salaries don't create wealth. Taxes are one big reason why, say, for example, a chiropractor makes $1.2 million a year in salary. But if that chiropractor becomes an investor by buying and selling other Chiropractic Clinics or investing in real estate, their tax rate will drop by half or more, and that's because capital gains tax rates are about half of ordinary income tax rates. So see, you don't want to be a super earner. You want to earn enough money to invest and become a super owner, but tax policy could change Tom and I will discuss that first. Then we'll talk about reducing the amount of tax that you pay. Today is a new punishing unrealized capital gains tax coming that you will have to pay. What this means is that if you have a $500,000 home, and it rises in value to $550,000 well, you would have to pay tax on your $50,000 of profit, but you haven't sold your home. So this feels so wrong, because you haven't realized any profit at all. This is what unrealized capital gains tax is. And also, where are you going to get the cash to pay the tax on your 50k of profit just because your home rose in value yet you didn't realize it? I mean, might you have to sell your home in order to get the cash to pay the tax. And then what if you though could pay the tax on your unrealized capital gain so you do pay it, but then the following year, the home goes down in value. Well, would you get a refund then? So the unrealized capital gains tax proposal is a mess. Let's learn about it and more. This week's guest is a best selling author, CPA and an international authority on tax. He's brilliant because he actually makes taxes fun, easy and understandable. He's familiar to you because he's the most recurrent guest in show history. Welcome back to GRE Tom Wheelwright.   Tom Wheelwright  12:48 thanks always good to be on your show.   Keith Weinhold  12:50 Tom probably with more than 30 show appearances here now you are 6% of GRE episodes.   Tom Wheelwright  13:00 That's a little scary. But you know, taxes are your single biggest expense, so why not?   Keith Weinhold  13:05 It's appropriate. And yeah, I guess all these appearances are certainly an endorsement of how much you help our audience. It's also a reflection of how tax and legal are not my strong suit. So it really helps to have you here absolutely the all time, assists leader in GRE history then and Tyler. An awful lot of timely tax topics going on that are probably first and foremost in more people's news feeds than they usually are. As we're here during presidential campaign season, the one that it really seems to revolve around the most is this potential tax proposal on unrealized gains. I've been around long enough where I seem to see this proposal come up more often, but it never seems to go anywhere. So first, why don't you tell us what unrealized gains are?   Tom Wheelwright  13:51 it actually goes beyond that. Interestingly enough, what the Democrats are proposing is, first of all, they're proposing capital gains rates at ordinary income rates. So they're proposing doubling the capital gains rate. That's actually as important as anything else. The second thing is, they're proposing capital gains on gifts. So if you give it, if you give your business to your child, you have a capital gains ordinary income rates. They're proposing capital gains when you die. So not only an estate tax, but also a capital gains tax. So then you get taxed twice when you die. So about 80 to 90% of your estate goes to the government when you die. If you're a business owner, as an example, then they're proposing eliminating the 1031 exchange, which would mean that on a trade of real estate, you'd have a capital gains tax at ordinary income rates. Then they're talking about this unrealized capital gains so if you do nothing but build your business or your real estate, the increase in value is subject to capital gains taxes at ordinary income rates. Now you know their proposal is, we have this tax. Tax when you're over $100 million that is not seem to be in the news feeds right now, but that's what it is. They call it the billionaires tax, and they're calling it an alternative minimum tax on billionaires. But clearly, 100 million is not a billion. That's only a 10th of a billion. And the biggest issue, of course, is if you tax unrealized gains at 100 million, soon you're going to tax them at 10 million, then it's going to be 1 million. Because history. That's the history of our tax law. The history of our tax law. Remember, in 1913 when we passed the 16th Amendment, it was passed because it was only a tax on the rich, right? It would never have passed if it was going to be a tax on the average person. And yet it passed. Because great, we're okay taxing somebody else, as long as it's not our tax. We're okay taxing somebody else. That's pretty much what's going on with this unrealized gains tax is, oh, well, it's on somebody else and they have enough money. It's no big deal. Therefore, I'm okay with that, because why shouldn't they pay more tax? That is what this is about. The challenge is, is, as we saw with the income tax, eventually it will reach the average person, or at least the average entrepreneur, real estate investor. Because think also, let's say that you build your wealth in real estate, and then when you retire, you say, Well, look, I don't want to be doing active real estate anymore. I'm going to trade my single family homes or my apartment building. I'm going to trade for a Walgreens a triple net lease, well under their proposal, that would be taxed because, again, no 1031 exchanges over $500,000 so that means that if you accumulate your wealth through business or real estate, you pay a much higher tax rate than if you accumulate your wealth by investing in Wall Street through a 401k because if you invest in Wall Street through a 401K, you only have to pay tax as you pull that out, you're not going to be paying tax on the value. Now that's assuming that they don't tax the increase in value of your 401K, which is also obviously a possibility. Interesting enough people talk a lot about the constitutionality of this. The challenge with that is that we already have taxes unrealized gains. If you're a dealer in stocks, in securities you do mark to market, that is meaning that you're going to pay tax on unrealized gains. And so there is actually precedent for this, and that's the scary thing, is that they could point to that precedent and say, Well, wait a minute, it's just an income tax, it's not a wealth tax, that's what they're going to say. They're going to say it's an income tax, not a wealth tax, because it's on appreciation, and appreciation is income. That's how they're going to go down this road. Will it start at $100 million Absolutely, that's where it will start. Will it then drift down? Who knows? But likely that's the history of our tax system. Yeah. I mean, we've talked before about the phenomenon of the camel getting its nose under the tent. However, in this case, I didn't realize there's already precedent for unrealized gains, in a sense, as potentially, if this is approved for those with $100 million net worth, and in next it's 10 million net worth, $1 million net worth and so on, like you described there, when you talk about capital gains tax rates being stepped up so that they're at ordinary income tax rates. It's actually somewhat of an interesting philosophical discussion, in a way. It sort of makes sense that a person's gains from investment could or should be taxed at the same rate as one's income when they go to their day job. However, why don't we do that by lowering income taxes rather than doubling capital gains? Wait a minute, no, because it's a double tax. Let's say that you're a business owner. Why does your business increase in value? Well, because you're making income, but you're already being taxed on that income. It's called income tax. What we do in this country, which a lot of countries don't do, by the way, is we tax it a second time. We call that a capital gains tax or a dividends tax. We tax it twice now. Now we're going to have that second tax at the same rate of the original tax. So if you think about it, you're being taxed on the same income twice because it's your income that determines your value, so you're being taxed twice. It's really not the same. It's fine if you're invested in the stock market, and that's where your capital gains are. That's a hard one to argue too much, although it does take liquidity out of the market, because the problem with capital gains tax is being taxed over 28% it's about 28% is that you actually lower the contribution to the Treasury because there will be fewer capital gains. There will be so many fewer capital gains that you actually lose money. The Tax Foundation, taxfoundation.org, I'd refer people to, has done lots of studies on this, and it's very clear. Here that high capital gains rates actually reduce the amount of money that comes to the government. So this is purely political. This has nothing to do with let's generate more revenue, one of the challenges so you have to score this, right? So that means that you're scoring what's the revenue that's going to be produced? You have two types of scoring. One is called static scoring. The other is called dynamic scoring. Static scoring means that we're going to look at the capital gains we already have, and we're just going to, if we double the rate, we're going to double the revenue. So that's assuming that we're going to have the same number and amounts of capital gains as we add at the lower rates, right? Dynamic scoring means that we're going to take into account how people behave motivationally when you double the tax rate. Yeah. Well, let me give you an example. So I'm a business owner. My wealth is in my business primarily. Do you think, really, I'm going to sell that business and take the capital gains immediately and be done with it? But if I have a high capital gains rate, I'm going to sell this over 20 years. So I'm actually going to defer my capital gains as long as I can, because I don't want to pay those high capital gains rates. So that means less money to the government. That's what it means. So it actually reduces on a dynamic scoring if you look at truly how people behave and have behaved in the past. So this isn't a new thing, right? We've had high capital gains rates before. It's not like we don't know. It's not like we haven't seen this before. It's that, for whatever reason, politically, they've decided that, wait a minute, the rich are out of favor. We need to tax the rich more. That's a very popular line, and therefore this is a way to do that, even though it by all calculations that are dynamic, it would actually reduce the amount of funds that come to the Treasury.   Keith Weinhold  22:00 That does make sense about the double taxation. Case in point, with an apartment building, if you increase its noi, you have more income than pay tax that if you increase the noi, therefore you've increased the value of the building. Consequently, the capital gains tax that you might have to pay down the road Tom, maybe current capital gains tax are higher than I thought, is the 28% capital gains tax. Number You mentioned, current or proposed. What is that?   Tom Wheelwright  22:24 Well, right now we have a 24% capital gains tax, okay, we have 20% pure capital gains tax, plus we have a 3.8% net investment income tax. Doesn't apply right now if you're a real estate professional, but applies to everybody else under the Harris proposal formally adopted Biden's plan under the Harris proposal, then you would get a actually 39.6% rate, plus 5% net investment income tax, regardless of whether you're your real estate Professional. So that is 44.6% that's the 45% the 28% number I threw out is that's the number the Tax Foundation says is the maximum you can raise it to without losing revenue.   Keith Weinhold  23:11 That puts things into perspective, as real estate investors, for a long time, we've appreciated substantial tax shelters. What are they being the 1031, tax deferred exchange, like you mentioned, that's been around for more than 100 years. Does that have any realistic shot of being shot down? Of course, Trump shot down substantial parts of the 1031 outside of strict real estate investing.   Tom Wheelwright  23:32 He did, and he actually set the precedent for eliminating it. So by doing that, because he eliminated it on everything except real property, right? I mean, actually, and even before that, there was a time, and there's still ways you can do it with paper assets. But it's not a 1031 exchange. So 1031 exchange has it evolved. It's gotten it's shrunk. It keeps shrinking. Even three or four years ago, no realistic possibility of eliminating 1031 exchange. The challenge, of course, is it would have an impact on the liquidity of the market. However, big deals never do 1031 exchange. Ever you don't see big multifamily developments sold in 1031s. The only time you see that happen is when they've used the Delaware statutory trust. And then you've got some of the investors who use it. And some of them who don't, you can do that in the Delaware statutory trust, but the regular developers, I haven't seen a 1031 done by a syndicator in years. So could they eliminate? Yeah, they could.   Keith Weinhold  24:33 yeah, that would be concerning. Are there any other presidential hopeful proposals that have to do with taxes that are germane, and our audience should know about?   Tom Wheelwright  24:41 my heavens. So the Democrats want to raise taxes by $5 trillion they want those taxes to all be on investors. And the reason I say that is because typically, people who make less than $400,000 which is their threshold, are not major investors. Most of their money goes to spending. Money. If you're making under $400,000 you can easily spend $400,000 a year. Oh, yeah, okay, that's not that hard, especially in today's world. It's a transfer from high net worth individuals who invest their money in long term projects like real estate, like energy, like business, and it's going to be a transfer to people who spend the money and they're going to spend it, my prediction is that if the Democrats get their way, we enter into a long term period of stagflation, high unemployment and high inflation. Because if you transfer $5 trillion from people who aren't spending it in the first place to be able who do spend it. You've got $5 trillion of new money going into the marketplace. Now it could depress asset values. So that could be good for investors, okay? Because you don't have as much cash available to the I'll call it the investor class, to go into real estate. If that's the case, then you have $5 trillion less, right? I mean, it's not a huge portion of the market, but it's big enough. If you take $5 trillion out of investment capital, then that would put a downward pressure on asset prices, which would include real estate.   Keith Weinhold  25:29 we're talking about potential changes to the tax code. It's always a germane discussion, because taxes are the biggest expense in your life. We're talking with Tom wheelwright. We come back, we're going to talk about the real estate tax laws as they are now, for example, how your rent income is taxed differently than your job income, and also, what are taxes like on sports, gambling. You're listening to get rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold.   Keith Weinhold  26:45 hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine, at Ridge lending group NMLS 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start Now while it's on your mind at Ridgelendinggroup.com that's Ridgelendinggroup.com   Keith Weinhold  27:16 you your bank is getting rich off of you. The national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings. If your money isn't making 4% you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk, your cash generates up to an 8% return with compound interest, year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% sitting in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25k you keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back. Their decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And I would know, because I'm an investor too. Earn 8% hundreds of others are. Text FAMILY  to 66866, learn more about Freedom Family investments Liquidity Fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text FAMILY to 66866.     Blair Singer  28:29 this is Rich Dad, sales advisor, Blair singer. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold. And above all, Don't Quit Your Daydream.   Keith Weinhold  28:48 welcome back to get rich education. We're talking with tax pro Tom wheelwright. He's been talking to us about some of the proposals that presidential candidates have here in a campaign season, and whether these things become true or not. Sometimes it seems like just the fact that they're proposing. They're proposed, or if they get instituted at a small level years down the road, it can blow up into something bigger. So Tom tell us more about some of the proposals that are on the table.   Tom Wheelwright  29:12 So we talked about the democratic proposals, which also include things like a $6,000 tax credit for babies. It also includes an enhanced Child Tax Credit. Also includes some other there's lots of provisions in there, right? So it's a transfer. It's just a transfer of money from one group of people to another group of people. On the Republican side, we haven't talked about that now they want to extend the 2017 act. They've been very clear, that's what they want to do, which is an estimate $4 trillion so the other direction. So basically, you're talking about a $9 trillion swing between the two parties. We've never seen this before, ever in a presidential election. Now, that big of a difference, one major tax increase, one party proposing major. Tax increases, the other proposing major tax decreases in the same election. It's something that I'm glad people are paying attention to, because it's a little overdue in this election cycle. Because really, when you talk about policy, that's probably the biggest policy difference between the two parties.   Keith Weinhold  30:18 Now one thing we've learned over time from talking with you is these presidential wish lists, if you want to call them that. Well, these tax changes are things that require congressional approval, and we have a divided Congress currently. So what do you think the prospects are of really any of these things becoming new law?   Tom Wheelwright  30:36 First of all, remember, most of the 2017 act expires at the end of 2025 so something will have to be done next year. They don't have a choice, either that or is just expires, and then we're back to what we had. We have smaller standard deductions, we have alternative minimum tax again. We get a deduction for state income taxes, right? That comes back the one. We lose our 20% Small Business deduction, the only thing that stays permanent is the corporate income tax rate that was permanent in the original bill. So there is going to be something, you're right, if there is a divided Congress, and I say that if, because if one party sweeps, then, especially on the Democratic side, the Republicans don't seem to be as cohesive as the Democrats are on these things. And if the Democrats sweep, I would say, remember, we don't have Kyrsten Sinema, we don't have Joe Manchin from happening. And so would the Democrats sweep all these through, not all of them, but you're going to see a major tax increase for sure, on the Republican side, would you see the 2017 act extended? You'll probably see it, but you're right that otherwise, if it's a divided Congress, we're going to have something in between. We thought we would get a divided Congress in 2020 though, remember and we didn't. So I would not count on a divided Congress   Keith Weinhold  31:59 erstwhile 2017 Trump tax cuts in JOBS Act brought the highest marginal income tax bracket from 39.6% under Obama down to 37% as I remember it. Some thought Biden would take it back up to 39.6 but he hasn't and it's just stated 37 All right, so if Republicans stayed in power, presumably that 37% would go ahead and carry on. That's what we think about as our w2 income. Tom, why don't we talk about the taxes that actually exist today? I think a lot of real estate investors just don't understand the difference between how your w2 job income is taxed versus your taxes on real estate rent. Can you talk to us about that?   Tom Wheelwright  32:42 The reason it's confusing is because they're both considered ordinary income, right? The difference is, is that one is business income and one is non business income. Your wages are non business income. You don't get deductions against non business income, but you do get deductions against business income. So your rental income is considered business income for purposes of the Internal Revenue Code. What that means is you get deductions for taxes. You get deductions for interest, you get deductions for maintenance, you get deductions for depreciation. That's why, when you have your income from your rentals. Typically taxed much lower than your income from your salary, because you get no deductions against your salary like you do against the rentals.   Keith Weinhold  33:30 Maybe it would help to introduce an example here. I don't know if this will complicate things too much or not. If a real estate investor has, say, a single family rental property with $2,000 of rent, income, $1,000 mortgage, $800 in operating expenses. How is that tax that leaves them with $200 of cash flow?   Tom Wheelwright  33:50 You have $200 of cash flow, but then you probably have depreciation on top of that, which is a non cash deduction. And so let's say your depreciation is $500 that means you actually have a $300 loss that, in many cases, you can use to offset income from your w2 so you actually have a negative tax rate. In other words, you're making money from taxes. So actually, is that an increase to your cash flow? So it's a way to think of it is, I have $200 of cash flow from my tenant, if I have a $300 loss for tax purposes, let's say I'm in a 33% tax bracket. I have $100 of income from the government. So that means my cash flow is really after tax. Cash flow is $300 not $200 whereas if you have the same $200 of income from your wages. Let's say you have just the net, right? Let's start with the net. You have $200 well, you're going to be taxed. And let's say that again, your 33% tax rate, that means you're after tax, right, is going to be roughly $125,000 okay, under $30 so $130 we're. $300 so it's like twice as much. In fact, all of that difference is because of the tax law.   Keith Weinhold  35:06 Gosh, that was a great breakdown. I'm really glad that I introduced that example, $2,000 in rent, minus $1,000 for the mortgage, at $800 in operating expenses, again, leaving you with $200 in cash flow with that example. There's probably more going on here with taxes. Because, of course, with that $1,000 mortgage amount, some is going to be principal, some is going to be interest. In part of that interest can be tax deductible.   Tom Wheelwright  35:31 I'm assuming it's all interest, because if it were not, we'd have a higher taxable income. Remember, your principal payment is not deductible. So in your example, I was assuming that the $1,000 mortgage payment was all interest. If it was only $800 then you'd have $400 of income before depreciation. You don't have $100 loss, because, remember, your principal's not deductible, so therefore you have to add that back into your taxable income.   Keith Weinhold  35:58 Will you talk to us about how to apply depreciation to this income versus expenses. Example, is there anything else you can speak to when it comes to that $800 of operating expenses in this example, and those expenses include things like property insurance, property tax itself, maintenance repairs and utilities.   Tom Wheelwright  36:19 Right but also, for example, you might run your rental real estate business out of a home office in your home so you could have a home office deduction. You might have your use your car for the rental purposes, and then you get a deduction for your car. So there are additional expenses that aren't even in that $800 that you could pick up that would not otherwise you'd never get a deduction, and you're really not spending any more money. You're just using it for business, and therefore getting a business deduction. So it's really all about what do I get to deduct? Remember that if you own a home for yourself, you don't get to really deduct the taxes. You have a limit on how much you can deduct. So taxes are limited in deduction. Mortgage Interest may or may not be limited. Remember also that if you have a mortgage, you're limited to how much a $750,000 mortgage being deductible, whereas if you it's a rental property, it could be a seven and a half million dollar and mortgage, and you still get the deduction, so you're not limited like you are. On top of that, again, it's a business, so let's say that you put solar panels on your personal home, you'd get a 30% tax credit, but you'd get no depreciation deduction. If you put solar panels on your rental house, you get the same 30% tax credit, but now you also get a depreciation deduction of probably another 30 $40,000 in the first year. So there's always more deductions in a business setting than a personal setting.   Keith Weinhold  37:56 Well, real estate has been around a really long time. Often laugh when people talk about non conventional investments and put real estate investing in their real estate's about the most conventional investment that we can possibly think of. It's been around a long time. We think about a newer thing that people do with their money, but I sure don't call it investing. That's sports gambling, and it's something that you and I haven't talked about before. Here Tom in 2018 the Supreme Court opened the way for states to legalize sports gambling, and at last check, 38 states, plus DC and Puerto Rico have legalized at least some form of sports gambling. So now it's a more germane conversation for you and I to have than it was a few years ago. Can you tell us about sports gambling, taxes and how it's treated.   Tom Wheelwright  38:41 So remember, all income is taxable. So that includes gambling winnings. They are taxable. In fact, you'll get a 1099 just like you would if you rendered services, you'd get a 1099 or you have interest income, you get 1099 you get 1099 from gambling. What you actually have to show is that you actually have gambling losses. So you have to track those gambling losses to show the IRS that you got gambling losses. But your gambling losses can never be more than your gambling winnings. You never get to generate a tax loss on gambling. What that means is, is that if you win $10,000 during the year, and you can prove that you lost $8,000 during the year, you're going to be taxed on $2,000 but if you can't prove the 8000 you're going to be taxed on 10,000   Keith Weinhold  39:33 so you the gambler, have the burden of tracking this, and I guess tracking your losses. I'm not a gambler. How would one track their losses?   Tom Wheelwright  39:42 I would keep detail ledger. Personally, I probably have a separate bank account just for gambling. Gosh, I'm not a gambler either, so that's what I would do. I would have a bank account just for gambling, by the way. It's also a good way to budget your gambling so they, you know, get in trouble, right? So just set up a separate bank account. Don't put whatever money you say, I'm comfortable with this money, I'm going to gamble with this money put in that bank account, and then you have a ledger that shows the money that went in and the money you lost, the money you won, and don't do anything but gambling in that bank account.   Keith Weinhold  40:15 Hey, that separate account's a great way to hide it from your spouse, not that I'm suggesting. Not bad.   Tom Wheelwright  40:22 Interesting. You went there.   Keith Weinhold  40:23 I'm not a gambler at all. Can't even believe I was thinking that far ahead. What are the gambling tax rates like?   Tom Wheelwright  40:31 They're ordinary income tax rate. So gambling winnings are just ordinary income. They're the same as your wages. They don't have social security taxes their income, just like any other kind of income, nothing special. And this all applies to whether it's sports gambling or general gambling, like lotteries and sweepstakes?  Just remember, all incomes taxable unless the government says it isn't all income, okay? And then there's some types of income that are taxed at special rates, like capital gains, but gambling has no special rates. By the way, gold also has special rate for when you sell gold, it has its own tax rate. Gambling has no special tax rate, so it's just your ordinary income rates.   Keith Weinhold  41:11 To me, it seems like it's hard to break even with gambling over time, and then when you take the tax adjusted earnings that you get from it, you know, over the long term. I just don't think Harris and Bally's Casino is really incentivized to inform gamblers on how punitive this can be with ordinary income tax rates applied to gambling winnings.   Tom Wheelwright  41:30 No, but they will send you your 10909g I guarantee that, that's for sure.   Keith Weinhold  41:34 Well, Tom has helped business owners and real estate investors permanently reduce their taxes. He does it like virtually no one else in the world does by keeping it simple, by helping you find deductions that other CPAs can't do. You can learn more about how Tom and his team can actually help you. You can get a free consultation. You can do that at getricheducation.com/tax. And Tom tell us more about the importance of a business owner or a real estate investor or anybody else really being connected with the right kind of tax professional that can permanently reduce your taxes.   Tom Wheelwright  42:12 So remember that if you want to change your tax, you have to change your facts. It's that simple. What you have to do is you need to know what facts you need to change. That's where a good tax advisor comes in. Is what facts do you need to change in order to change your tax now good news is, wrote tax through wealth. So you got an idea of what that is, but the tax law is very detailed. You must dot your i's cross your t's, so to speak, so that you make sure that you meet all of the rules, such as documentation, for example, for your business expenses. When you do that, you're going to get a better tax result, especially if your tax advisor is also preparing your tax return. Because really, your tax return is just part just how you implement your tax strategy, right? That's how you do it. So we launched, just recently, a franchise of tax advisors, and now we actually have much, really good control, quality control with our tax advisors, and they use our software system. It's very important that you have somebody, if not us, find somebody who you know you can actually give tax free wealth too, and say what cares make sure that we're doing it this way. But if the easy button is really the getricheducation.com/tax.   Keith Weinhold  43:27 Tom Wheelwright,  It's been valuable as always. Thanks so much for coming back onto the show.   Tom Wheelwright  43:33 Thanks, Keith.   Keith Weinhold  43:40 Yeah, key insights from Tom as always, taxes are complicated. Tom's Network helps sort it out for you. We've already covered a lot of ground on this week's episode with raw land values as built, proposed tax plans and how to reduce your tax burden within the existing tax system. Tom and I talked, and he will be back yet again with us later this year for more tax wizardry. Now, just recently here, Kamala Harris proposed a smaller capital gains tax hike than Biden. She's starting to put sort of her own policy spin on things, breaking with the President on the size of a proposed increase on the capital gains tax rate that is a 28% top tax rate when investments are sold for those that make a million dollars plus. So that's more than the current 23.8% top rate, but less than the 39.6% rate that Biden had supported all income is taxable. Therefore it is axiomatic that the fastest way to increase your ROI is to work with a tax advisor that can find you all of the biggest deductions right away. You can read Tom's book Tax Free Wealth, get a good system of documentation going and get connected with Tom's team. At the end of an episode at times, I like to leave you with the most actionable resource on the topic that we covered. You can schedule a free call to see how Tom's team can help you out. At getricheducation.com/tax. That's getricheducation.com/tax. Until next week. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, Don't Quit Your Daydream. 45:33 Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of Get Rich Education LLC, exclusively. Keith Weinhold  46:01 The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, getricheducation.com.  

Get Rich Education
518: Is Now the Best Time to Buy Real Estate?

Get Rich Education

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 9, 2024 35:24


A prominent Florida Builder and #1 Wall Street Journal Best-Selling Author joins us to discuss the benefits of build-to-rent properties, including affordable housing and attractive mortgage rates. He has already done all the work for investors, offering new build income properties that are sometimes rented. We discuss the importance of median value and affordability index in choosing profitable areas for long-term real estate investments. Learn about new build income properties with rate buydowns as low as 3.75%. Important market dynamics and investor strategies, including the trade-offs between cash flow and equity growth. Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/518 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREmarketplace.com/Coach Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation   Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai    Keith Weinhold  00:01 Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, a great way to forecast the future of the real estate market is to look at the level of new building. I've got a surprise to reveal there then a focus on one of the hottest in migration states. That's popular because it promises cash flow for real estate investors today on Get Rich Education.   00:24 Since 2014 the powerful Get Rich Education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads in 188 world nations. He has a list show guest top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get Rich Education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the Get Rich Education podcast. Sign up now for the Get Rich Education podcast, or visit getricheducation.com     Corey Coates  01:09 You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is Get Rich Education.   Keith Weinhold  01:25 Welcome to GRE from Plains Georgia to White Plains New York and across 188 nations worldwide, you are listening to Get Rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, we are an educational platform. And if you haven't yet, I really suggest that you spend 100 hours learning how to invest in real estate. The average person works 2000 hours a year for 40 years. That's 80,000 hours of working for money. I implore you to spend 100 hours learning how to keep it and grow it and leverage it and create income and tax advantages from it. 80,000 hours of lifetime work, 100 hours learning real estate investing. Now, when someone like a presidential candidate produces, still vague talk about building 3 million starter homes in four years. That actually appears just about impossible. Within the existing structure. We would need 2 million housing starts per year from 2025 to 2028, in order to overcome our existing shortfall. And we haven't exceeded 1.8 million in any year in the moderate era, and that's even when demand was extraordinary and interest rates were low. Just you know, look at the reality of what home builders need to actually do, and this is even if they don't have any excessive not in my backyard. Pushback, builders have to procure land, meaning they need to lay out cash far before building, and then they need to jump through zoning and building hoops in counties and cities, in towns, in communities, and sometimes those hoops can reach preposterous levels with substantial delays. Builders need to secure financing, and for most, interest rates are still in the 9% plus range. And then builders need to acquire a whole local network of contractors and subcontractors, and then they need to keep those contractors and subcontractors busy, or else they're gonna lose those workers. So builders have to work to maintain their teams once they found them. And if that's not enough, this is all amidst a historically bad skilled labor shortage, meaning those workers can be enticed to go work for somebody else. As you know, skilled worker demand far exceeds skilled worker supply. So for builders, it takes years of planning and development. In a lot of cases, they sit on land for many years before the market conditions are right for the actual build. Well, look, at least there is finally acknowledgement among our highest elected officials that we do need to address the core problem, but our elected officials proposals aren't really so good, and our country's housing problem is largely a regulatory issue. Later today, we'll talk to a builder that's already done all of this for you, so it's not preconstruction that has new build income properties complete, available sometimes even rented already, and they help you buy down your mortgage rate to a level that's really low. You'll soon learn about it. But first, let's talk more about adding new housing supply in the larger apartment segment. It's something that can help you see the future here, but it isn't getting enough tension outside of multifamily industry circles, and that is the fact that apartment starts are plummeting to 11 year lows. And this is a real surprise to some people, multifamily completions are outpacing starts by the widest margin since 1975 and I mention this because, you know, you probably keep hearing and reading about how apartment construction is at all time highs, but really, that is a story from two years ago. It takes about two years to go from an apartment construction start to a completion. Well, today we're seeing that huge surge of apartment starts two years ago morph into completions. That's the piece to be aware of here. And to give you some idea about the new apartment building, slow down through July, we have completed 314,000 multifamily units, and we started just 193,000 units. That's all according to census stats that year to date. Start total is the nation's lowest since 2013 when we were just building our way out of the global financial crisis. Also a larger share of apartment supply. In this next cycle, it's likely to be affordable housing, because that's where the tax incentives are in the last wave of apartment construction a few years ago, it was more higher end stuff, and the result is today, apartments are oversupplied in a lot of markets, leading to falling apartment rents, or just somewhat stable and frozen apartment rents in heavily overbuilt places like Austin, Texas and a lot of others. But this slowdown in New Starts of larger apartments is why some have bullishness on the multifamily outlook for 2026 and beyond supply is the biggest headwind for apartment investors today. While it is an enormous tailwind for renters, it's good for them, but those dynamics appear likely to shift again. It took an almost perfect storm of variables to push apartment construction to 50 year highs, and it's difficult to see a scenario where construction could re-accelerate back to those peaks. Today's apartment completion levels could mark a high. It's generational. You may never see it again. So to summarize, in the world of large apartments, supply is still up, even outpacing demand in a lot of markets. It all came from a big building wave that began when interest rates were low two years ago. They're mostly upper end places. Apartment syndicators also got hit with higher rates that reset on them, and you've seen the value of some apartment buildings fall 30%. It is bad. But long term, I expect that apartments are going to be fine. New lease ups are absorbing what's out there. The demographics show that renters will continue occupying apartments. Interest rates have already fallen and they're expected to keep falling, and you don't have very many new apartment starts, it's that last piece that a lot of people aren't aware of. So that's the forecast over the next few years for five plus unit apartments. When it comes to the market dynamics for one to four unit properties. I'm going to discuss this with one of the voices of GRE marketplace today. They are a build to rent provider building new construction, single family homes, duplexes and fourplexes for tenants that they sell to investors. Hey, I'd like to welcome in a home builder and property provider serving Florida, basically statewide, known as North America's leading build to rent property developer, and he believes in what he builds and offers others, because he's been a real estate investor himself for more than two decades. Hey, Jim, welcome back onto the show.   Jim Sheils  09:45 Keith, good to be here. Thanks for having me.   Keith Weinhold  09:47 Jim, we have a lot of exciting things to talk about. What you're doing in Florida. You've really helped out a lot of our investors and followers so far. You have some really interesting things to tell us about. Rate buydowns and just how low those rate buydowns are on some new build properties. And I sure want to get to that. But first, why don't we just pull back big picture, and from the 30,000 foot national view, before we talk about Florida, what are some of the important dynamics you see in the real estate market here in late 2024   Jim Sheils  10:16 Yeah, it's been interesting. The media is always late to the party, as you know, Keith, I've seen some interesting stats. You know, affordability nationwide has gone from 480,000 about eight months ago, and now it's down to about 405, so we've already seen the affordability index come down nationwide, and it's hit really well here in Florida. One of the reasons why is there's definitely been some price adjustments on higher priced property in Maine markets, Miami, Orlando, Tampa, areas that we don't build because the numbers didn't work. So that's been really good to see that affordability also, rates are just starting to drop. But here's an interesting thing. A year ago, Keith, the average mortgage payment for the average person buying a home, was 57% of their total income. Now that has dropped to about 44% of their total income. So I'm always looking at affordability and overall median pricing, and that's been a really, really good thing for us. As I had said, second tier markets where you can get affordability, but also great amenities, great lifestyle is where we've always focused on building, and it seems like that is really continuing to have a solid pulse. I love visiting some of those bigger markets, you know, taking my kids to Disney, but I'm glad we stayed out of there, because it seemed a little more temperamental, and we're glad we're in the more second tier markets.   Keith Weinhold  11:39 You cited an affordability index there earlier. Now, affordability still, historically, is not that good, but it's not as bad as it used to be. Tell us more about that index.   Jim Sheils  11:49 Yeah, I always have looked at, you know, the affordability index. Let's just use an example, Orange County, California. I think the median value of a home there is $1.1 million. In Jacksonville it's 305, and so you get a score for based on what is the average family income per price of the home. And it's kind of like your report card. And there's certain areas that have an A, and there's certain areas that have an F. You know, we have lots of investors come to us with you guys too, from New York or Seattle or Orange County. And this is something I look at, what is the affordability index, and just know how they figure out the score on your affordability index. What's the average price of the home in that area, and what is the average family income for that area? And the correlation of those two numbers shows whether you have a good score or bad score.   Keith Weinhold  12:39 And now that we've looked at the national picture somewhat, you mentioned some of the major metro markets in Florida, some of which you specifically stay out of, and that's simply because the numbers don't work for long term rentals. They don't provide cash flow. Tell us more, just in general, about some of the areas that you've chosen and why is there profitable for long term real estate investors?   Jim Sheils  13:03 Yeah, this median value, this affordability index, is so key when we're able to get into home still, you know, Jacksonville is barely over 300,000 as the media now, we're able to cash flow right off the bat. So like Jacksonville is still as the population growth, the economic growth is occurring. It's desirable coastal community, and supply and demand is in our favor. We don't have enough housing, so that's where we focus all of those factors, not only here, but on a smaller scale, in Palm Coast, in Ocala, where we've done a ton with the GRE community. And then southwest Florida. We don't go to Southeast Florida, too expensive, too overbuilt, too high on insurance, but that Greater Fort Myers area, which did experience the highest growth anywhere in the country during the pandemic, which was interesting to watch, we're still seeing a lot of good fundamentals down there. And again, at that affordable range, it makes a big difference when you're buying at a medium priced home is, let's say 320,000 opposed to 580,000 makes a huge difference to whether it will cash flow off the bat or have a negative cash flow. And as you know, Keith, even though we're doing new construction high growth areas, we want to see app cash flow right away.   Keith Weinhold  14:13 Now, you are a builder, you are adding much needed inventory to the national housing supply, where we've had a shortage of millions of units per years, depending on what source you cite in quote there, a lot of the estimates as to the housing shortage really are all over the place. But many sources state that Florida inventory levels just statewide. Here they are back about to pre pandemic levels. So they have recovered. They are back to about 2019 levels. And I think one important thing for people to remember is, well, 2019 was a pretty good, balanced housing market.   Jim Sheils  14:50 It was a normal market. We liked 2019 you know, that was a good market. There was growth, but it was sustainable, more predictable, steady. So I'm happy to be back in 2019. You know, 2020 21 levels there were, there was less than a month's worth of inventory on the MLS that it was dire. Yeah, it was just such a skewed thing. And you've studied this for a long time. So everyone if you say, Oh well, it went from this to this. I love how you talk about 2019 because by all statistics that was a very normal market here in Florida. So we're happy to get back to that, because you have to have a certain amount of inventory level to balance the playing field. We want to see growth, but I'm more of a long term player, as you know, we don't need to see huge spikes, because that can get a little volatile.   Keith Weinhold  15:36 Now, as a builder, talk to us about builder sentiment since, like we talked about before, we are in a falling interest rate environment, mortgage rates are already down about one and a half percent from the recent highs, and the Fed hasn't even begun lowering rates yet. So talk to us more about what those lower rates do to build their sentiment. And we're not just talking about rates for buyers here, which matter, but it's the rate that builders like you that have to pay the typically factory in here too.   Jim Sheils  16:06 Yeah, it's an interesting market right now, Keith, and here's something I want to give great encouragement from as you know, we do build some for the institutions and the larger groups. The little guy, the small investor, has the guerrilla warfare advantage over them right now, because, as you know, we right now have announced financing. We're able to have this builder forward commitment where we're buying large tranches of money for residential mortgages. That means, you know, individuals like we work with all the time, Keith, that buy a few properties, we can get them this incredible financing right now, at 3.75 we're beating the market. You know, you go into a B of A and try to get a duplex finance, you're probably looking at six and three quarters. And we're able to do that because it's residential real estate. Some of our bigger guys, they would buy all of our inventory. But we can't get a institution qualified for these individual investor loans for residential real estate. They have to go to the commercial world. And as you know right now, Keith, the commercial world is screwy. People aren't lending. The rates are really high, and even these big guys have to sharpen their pencils and do their numbers and they go, Gosh, it's not panning out until rates drop. So that means these bigger groups are on the sidelines. And we all hear the complaints, all the big guys are buying all the properties they own 40% well, they're on the sidelines, and our little troopers and investors are building their portfolios in ways they cannot so it's exciting to see now for us too. What's lucky and unlucky is a lot of good builders out there that we're friends with. They can't get financing. The banks have gotten so stringent. So they might even have a good balance sheet and a good track record, but the banks are getting really stringent where Chris and I are. As you know, we were partially acquired by Sumitomo forestry about a year and a half ago. They're a 331 year old company, and when we decided to team up with them, they said, We love Florida and we love build to rent, go, and so now we have zero bank debt, and they've given us a green light to build out all of our inventory. We have five, over 5000 lots in Florida, and we don't have the bank slowdowns. So to find a good builder, you have to make sure they have financing in place, because they're going to be a great builder out there that just can't get the funding to do the job for you. So that's another thing you want to look for.   Keith Weinhold  18:16 Right. And last time I checked, you've got more than 925 current independent income property investors, many of those whom are GRE listeners. Well, we're going to talk more about just how low those rates are. Who participates in the buy down? I already know that most of it's the builder, and just part of it is you, the investor. You're listening to get residuation. We're talking about Florida, build to rent property more when we come back, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold Hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine, at Ridge lending group  NMLS 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start Now while it's on your mind at ridgelendinggroup.com That's ridgelendinggroup.com  Your bank is getting rich off of you. The national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings. If your money isn't making 4% you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk, your cash generates up to an 8% return with compound interest, year in and year out, instead of earning less than 1% sitting in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25k you keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back. Their decade plus track record proves they've always paid their. Investors 100% in full and on time. And I would know, because I'm an investor too, earn 8% hundreds of others are text FAMILY to 66866, learn more about Freedom Family investments Liquidity Fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text, FAMILY to 66866.     Garrett Sutton  20:28 This is Rich Dad advisor, Garret Sutton, to grow your wealth. Listen to the always valuable. Get Rich Education.   Keith Weinhold  20:45 Welcome back to Get Rich Education we're talking about half of progress real estate investing in high growth Florida, with a renowned build to rent provider there. And I think a lot of this really comes down to trust with the fluctuating interest rate environment that we've had, some people don't trust certain builders or that investor to go ahead and put down a deposit on a vacant lot and wait 12 months or more for it to be built. But we're not talking about pre construction here.   Jim Sheils  21:16 No, no. Since we steamed up with Sumitomo, you know a lot of good builders again, they can't even start the project until they have a a buyer with a deposit down. That's the requirement for the bank to give them the money to start building. We don't have bank requirements, so we're building on our own dime, and so we are having properties completed before you even have to make an offer on them. So these are finished properties, sometimes a tenant already in place. I know just this month, there's been a few GRE people very happily stepping into pre rented homes. So you don't have to wait that period. If you're ready to move your money or have a 1031 exchange, we can fulfill those no problem, and close within 30 days Our in house financing, Keith, which I know we're about to go over, I want to make sure people know this is for not only our single families, but our duplexes and our quads as well.   Keith Weinhold  22:02 Tell us more about that in house financing that's something of great interest to people, and especially with these mortgage rate buyouts.   Jim Sheils  22:09 Yeah, everyone says, Oh, I wish I had locked into a mortgage before June of 2022 right? I mean, for every time we heard that, Keith, well, now you can and what we're able to do since we have the balance sheet we have now, with teaming up with this bigger company, banks will allow us to do what's called a builder forward commitment and buy large tranches of money. We're in the money buying business, I guess, now, and we have to commit to large amounts of money, but by doing that, we're able to pay fees upfront to buy down the mortgages. So right now, our most popular rate is 3.75. You as the buyer, and these are called discount points, which I've heard Keith talk about. You're bringing in a little under two discount points to get the 3.75 rate. And you say, Okay, well, Jim, we're bringing in a little less than two points. What are you bringing in? We're not really supposed to talk about that, but here's what I can tell you, do this test, go to one of your mortgage friends, or your B of A or Wells Fargo, and ask it what it will take for you to pay to buy down a rate for 3.75. Now, first of all, they will not allow you to do that much. We are on a more high volume schedule that will allow us to do that, but let's say, if they would, here's what the feedback we've got. If you were to try to do this on your own, Keith, you or I just walking into our bank, you would have to pay anywhere from 12 to 15 points to make this happen. Gosh, and that was the advantage of working as a collective group like we do together, you and I in our investor community, because now that we're able to do volume, it benefits us   Keith Weinhold  23:39 all. No one really knows where interest rates are going to go. I think it's pretty foolish to try to predict them, but very few people think they're ever going to drop to the levels that we saw during the depths of the pandemic, 3.75% if you get locked in there, it's pretty unlikely that the future market is going to meet that down the road at all and tell us more about that product type, the single family homes, duplexes and fourplexes that this is available on. And of course, they're all new build.   Jim Sheils  24:09 Yeah, we do a combination of new build on all of these. We found, Keith, a lot of build to rent. Companies really only focused on the single family home, but we found, you know, to increase rental yield and overall returns. There was really a lack in the market for duplexes in residential areas and quads, again, and those are close to commercial deals, without the commercial financing, they allow more affordable rent in more residential areas that people can afford and want to be in. And we found through the pandemic, these had a greater calling to them than, let's say, a large apartment complex. You know, people want to be a little more spread out, have their own yard, like in a duplex, and they get that there, but they get it at a fraction of the price that a complete single family home would be at. So we found, as you know, most of our investors, our average client, buys three to eight properties with us, and no surprise, they. Buy a mixture of single family duplex and quads. I know we agree on this. Keith, the single family home has had the best history of all of great equity appreciation, and the duplex might lag behind that a little bit, but it's got a better cash flow. So I will always do little trade offs and combo my own portfolio to make up for two of those. And that's what our counselors usually coach our people. I know yours do as well.   Keith Weinhold  25:23 Yeah, the economies of scale for the real estate investor really can be there long term with duplexes and fourplexes, and you're really helping fill a need. Some months ago, I talked about the mmm multi families, missing middle, about how so few duplexes, triplexes and fourplexes are being built today, as compared to when you had about three times as much construction in those property types that you did in the 1980s a lot of that's really gone away. You're really bringing it back. We talk about some of the areas where these are built. You know, Jim years ago? Well, really about 10 years ago, when I began this show, I was often talking about how I want to be invested in Metro statistical areas that have a population of at least 500,000 to 1 million people, in order to get a diversity of economic situations there, because you do need rent paying tenants. But so much has changed since then, starting four to five years ago, with the work from home movement, I'm more open to more outlying areas than I had been previously. So tell us about some of these areas that you choose to build in. In Florida.   Jim Sheils  26:29 yeah, you know our hub market where we started doing rehabs many, many, many years ago was Jacksonville, Florida. Yeah, and we still are headquartered here, but Jacksonville, again, is the most affordable coastal city, I believe, still on the East Coast, which brings great fundamentals. It hits both of your things, Keith, where it is larger, but it has more of a sprawl and that larger population and the fundamentals look really well again, that overall median price is still very low. And we branch down to Palm Coast, which is a little more of a higher end area, but a bedroom community, to Jacksonville, the silent soldier, the one that really surprised us the most. I think you remember, this was Ocala. In fact, when Christopher said, Do you want to go start building Ocala, and this is about a decade ago, I said, Wow, Ocala, isn't there only, like, some horses out there? Yeah, now he's a horse guy. So he laughed, and he said, Oh, sure enough, I put my foot in my mouth. But Ocala, the amount of growth that we've seen out there has been incredible. And Ocala is really well placed because it's just below Gainesville, where the, you know, there's the medical centers, the university, and it's just north of the villages, which is the second largest retirement community and growing. Not only that, it has its own economic infrastructure, but it's really well placed in the difference of a price of a home for a starter family in Ocala compared to like Northern Tampa. There is no comparison. You're talking half. So we like that. And also with rents, it's got a great lifestyle. And then southwest Florida again, Southwest Florida, Keith, we're very lucky that we took some risk there. A lot of builders would like to be building down there, but as you remember, we took some big risks in 2020 we talked to some of our friends and said, this can be really good or really bad for real estate. We went with the really good and we loaded up on, well, a lot, over $20 million worth of land at the pre jump prices. Now we're into land right down there so we can get them built right for you guys still make a margin for ourselves that other people that they're trying to get land today, they just can't do and Southwest Florida has been a really good market for us. Had that hurricane there a few years ago, and all of our new construction properties did well. In fact, of almost 300 properties that were under construction, we had four that needed insurance claims, and those four, Keith, well, we had just put up the freestanding walls. We hadn't been able to tie the roof on before the winds and the winds knocked the walls over, and that's it. But there was no flooding, and that's why you get an insurance break. And all the markets that we're in, we always hear, Oh, you can't get insurance in Florida. And I kind of giggle and say, on which properties? Because there is a very different treatment for a new construction property built 2004 or newer, compared to a property built 1957 on lower ground.   Keith Weinhold  29:02 Yeah this is such an important thing to bring up. Property insurance premiums have been hiked substantially on Florida, existing, older build properties, not the post 2004 ones like Jim is talking about here and yeah, for those that don't know, Ocala, there in Central Florida is known as an equestrian area for horses and your business partner, Chris, that's his big hobby. So yeah, when you first went there, you were with Chris. You were like, are you just trying to get there because you want to be around horses more and what? But now there's actually a good fundamental reason for this, where it makes sense to build there. Well, Jim, why don't you talk about how you've specifically helped one of our listeners, or the typical buyer there in how that process looks, including an approximate timeline to get them from the time where they submit an offer all the way through to closing.   Jim Sheils  29:52 Yeah. Well, you know, our team and your team work together. We want to make sure we set people's goals and expectations. Up front. What are you looking for? What are you trying to get into? If someone says to me, Look, I'm looking to get into a great starter home with the lowest basis and highest cash flow, I'm gonna say, Okay, let's look at Ocala. They say, Look, we're looking more long term. I'm more of an equity growth player. Yeah, I want cash flow. I'm gonna say, Okay, let's look at Palm Coast, or southwest Florida. Together with our teams and our property counselors, we try to assess what are your needs and where are you wanting to go. Now, all of our vehicles will get through there, but some a little better than others, depending on the plan you want to put together. And so once we do do that, what we like to do is go through properties that seem to match what they're most wanting. We'll go through the performance. We'll look up the site maps, we'll go through the different fundamentals of that direct area, and then, if it seems to make sense, first thing we got to do is get you pre qualified with our in house lender. All is that a go? Well, then we can make an offer, get it in. We have a whole onboarding process. You know that we've done hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of time, and now we're over. I know I laugh because we talked recently and you said, I think you're at a 925. Investors, we're over 1000 now, so we're continuing to grow. But again, we've tried to make it fluid, where our people are part of the process, but never alone. We answer the questions on the financing help get you the directionals on the insurance now, you can use whatever insurance company you want. 99% of them use the company that we recommend. We have no financial affiliation with them. But everyone asked years ago when Chris and I started this, well, who do you use for insurance? Who do you use? So we just gave them who we used, and this person usually undercuts and better coverage than most. So all those pieces Keith with going through that and again, this is about a 30 day process of getting qualified, once you pick the property, submitting the contract with your 10% deposit, doing your onboarding for Property Management and Insurance pieces. And then, obviously you don't have to come here to see us for closing. We do all of our traveling closings for you. And most important thing I like to set up with PM is, where do you want the money wired?   Keith Weinhold  31:59 That's a great question. Well, yeah, I mean, this is a great answer for so many of our listeners, those super attractive rate buy downs. And then the big thing is, is, in many cases, you're not waiting and waiting and waiting months for the build to take place. Well, Jim, before I tell our listeners how they can connect with you over there, do you have any last thoughts overall with anything that we did touch on or did not.   Jim Sheils  32:22 I want to encourage people, if they're not looking to get in the next to real estate in the next two to three years, not a big deal. But if you're looking to get in sometime over the next year, then I would really look at what's happening, things you talk about with the rates and the interest, because I do believe that institutional money within the next six months, it'll be interesting when we reconnect, Keith, that are going to start coming in and buying up more residential real estate. However, their hands are tied right now. They cannot get the financing that the smaller guy can. So whether it's with us or someone else, take advantage. Take advantage. David and Goliath, this is a great opportunity where the big guys cannot keep up with you, because they can't get the financing and insurance rates that you can so take advantage.   Keith Weinhold  33:03 Well, I specifically wanted to have you on today because it is an opportunistic time. They serve Florida with new builds. Learn more about their properties and even get some under contract. If you so wish, you can do so by contacting your GRE investment coach. If you don't have one yet, you can do so at GREmarketplace.com it is free or at GREmarketplace.com/florida. Jim, it's been great having you back on the show.   Jim Sheils  33:32 Thanks having me. Keith, good seeing you.   Keith Weinhold  33:39 Yeah, an excellent update on Florida build to rent properties. A lot of our listeners are asking about these new build properties with 3.75% mortgage interest rates, and you are not the majority participant in the rate buy down either. Next week, who I consider the foremost tax authority in the entire world will be back here with us. Tom Wheelwright is going to discuss presidential candidates, tax plans, whether you should be scared about a tax on unrealized gains and a lot more. Also on a future episode, I'm going to talk about the land that is the vacant land that comes along with your rental property, what to look out for and what to avoid. It's really a little discussed subject that we haven't talked about here before. To learn more about Florida, build to rent property with those attractive rate buydowns, start at GRE marketplace.com Until next week, every host, Keith Weinhold, Don't Quit Your Daydream.   34:45 Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have. Potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of Get Rich Education LLC, exclusively.   Keith Weinhold  35:13 The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Getricheducation.com

Get Rich Education
517: The Future of Homebuilding with George Gilder

Get Rich Education

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 2, 2024 43:42


Futurist, Technologist and Author of many titles including the classic “Wealth and Poverty”, George Gilder joins us to discuss supply side economics and the transformative potential of using graphene material in various industries including real estate. We discuss economic growth measured by time prices, showing that private sector progress is faster than GDP estimates. Learn about graphene's properties, including its strength and conductivity, and its potential to transform various industries. Graphene is a single layer of carbon atoms that is 200 times stronger than steel, 1000 times more conductive than copper and the world's thinnest material. Resources: getgilder.com Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/517 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREmarketplace.com/Coach Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai    Keith Weinhold  00:01 Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold. I'm talking about the various economic scare tactics out there, like the BRICS, the FDIC and the housing crash. What lower interest rates mean? How our nation's $35 trillion debt has gone galactic. Then today's guest is a legend. He's a technologist and futurist. It tells us about today's promise of graphene in real estate all today on get rich education.  when you want the best real estate and finance info, the modern Internet experience limits your free articles access, and it's replete with paywalls and you've got pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers. Oh, at no other time in history has it been more vital to place nice, clean, free content in your hands that actually adds no hype value to your life. See, this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point to get the letter. It couldn't be more simple text, GRE to 66866, and when you start the free newsletter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate course, completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream letter, and it wires your mind for wealth. Make sure you read it. Text GRE to 66866, text GRE to 66866.   Corey Coates  01:40 you're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is Get Rich Education.   Keith Weinhold  01:56 Welcome to GRE from Dunedin, Florida to Dunedin, New Zealand and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are listening to get rich education, where real estate investing is our major. That's what we're here for, with minors in real estate economics and wealth mindset. You know, as a consumer of this media type as you are, it's remarkable how often you've probably encountered these de facto scare tactics, like the BRICS are uniting and it will take out the dollar and it's just going to be chaos in the United States. You might know that BRICS, B, R, I, C, S is the acronym for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Do you know how hard it is to get off the petro dollar and how hard it is for the BRICS, which is basically more than just those five countries, it's dozens of countries. How hard it is for them to agree on anything with things as various as their different economies, and they'll have different customs and currencies. I mean, sheesh, just for you to get yourself and three friends all to agree to meet at the same coffee shop at the same time, takes, like a Herculean effort, plus a stroke of luck, and all full of you are like minded, so I wouldn't hold your breath on the dollar hyper inflating to worthlessness, although it should slowly debase. What about the scare tactic of the FDIC is going to implode, and this could lead to bank closures and widespread societal panic. Well, the FDIC, which stands for Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, they're the body that backs all of the US bank deposits, including yours, and it's steered by their systemic resolution Advisory Committee. Well, there are $9 trillion in bank deposits, and is backed by only a few 100 billion in FDIC cash, so there aren't nearly enough dollars to back the deposits. So can you trust your money in the bank? That's a prevalence scare tactic, but my gosh, if nothing else, history has shown that the government will step in to backstop almost any crisis, especially a banking related one, where one failure can have a cascading effect and make other institutions fall. I'm not saying that this is right, but time has proven that the government does and will step in, or the common scare tactic in our core of the world that is the eminent housing price crash. And I define a crash as a loss in value of 20% or more. Do you know how difficult this would be to do anytime soon? Housing demand still outstrips supply. Today's homeowners have loads of protective equity, an all time high of about 300k so they're not walking away from their homes. Inflation has baked higher replacement costs into the real estate cake, and now mortgage rates have fallen one and a half percent from this cycle's highs, and they are poised to fall further, so a housing price crash is super unlikely, and a new scare tactic for media attention seems to be this proposal by a future presidential hopeful about a tax on unrealized gains. Now Tom wheelwright is the tax expert. He's returning to the show with us again soon here, so maybe I'll ask him about it. But a tax on unrealized gains is politically pretty unpopular. It would be a mess to impose, and a lot of others have proposed it in the past as well, and it has not gone anywhere. Plus tax changes need congressional approval, and we have a divided Congress, there's a small chance that attacks on unrealized gains could come to fruition, but it would be tough. It's probably in the category of just another media scare tactic, much like the BRICS and the shaky FDIC banking structure had a housing price crash. I like to keep you informed about these things, and at times we do have guests with a disparate opinion from mine on these things. Good to get a diversity of opinions, but it's best not to go too deep into these scare tactics that are really unlikely to happen any time soon. Well, there was a party going on 10 days ago at what all affectionately dub club fed in Jacksonhole Wyoming, I don't know what the club fed cover charge was, but fortunately, we did not have to watch Janet "Grandma" Yellen dance at Club fed and and share. Jerome Powell, yes, he finally caught a rate cut buzz. He announced that the time has come for interest rate cuts, and as usual, he didn't offer specifics. Total rager. what a party. later this month, he's going to render the long awaited decision, which now seems to be, how much will cut rates by a quarter point or a half point? Did you know that it's been four and a half years since the Fed lowered rates? Yeah, that was March of 2020, at the start of the pandemic. And then we know what happened back in 2022 and 2023 they hiked rates so much that they needed trail mix, a sleeping bag and some Mountain House freeze dried meals to go along with their steady hiking cycle. Interest rates now, though have been untouched for over a year, it's been an interesting year for the Fed and rates many erroneously thought there would be six or more rate cuts this year. And what about Maganomics? Trump recently said that if he becomes president, he should be able to weigh in on fed decisions that would depart from a long time tradition of Fed independence from executive influence. Historically, they've been separated.   Donald Trump  08:26 The Federal Reserve's a very interesting thing, and it's sort of gotten it wrong a lot. And he's tending to be a little bit later on things. He gets a little bit too early and a little bit too late. And, you know, that's very largely a it's a gut feeling. I believe it's really a gut feeling. And I used to have it out with him. I had it out with him a couple of times, very strongly. I fought him very hard. And, you know, we get along fine. We get along fine. But I feel that, I feel the president should have at least say in there. Yeah, I feel that strongly. I think that, in my case, I made a lot of money. Iwas very successful, and I think I have a better instinct than in many cases, people that would be on the Federal Reserve or the chairman.   Keith Weinhold  09:10 Those Trump remarks were just a few weeks ago, and then shortly afterward, he seemed to walk those comments back, but he did say that he would not reappoint. DJ J-pal, to the economic turntables. It's a long standing economic argument as well about whether an outside force like the Fed should set interest rates at all, which is the price of money, rather than allowing the rate to float with the free market as lenders and borrowers negotiate with each other. I mean, no one's out there setting the price of oil or refrigerators or grapes, but it is pretty remarkable that the Fed has signaled that rate cuts are eminent when inflation is still 2.9% well above their 2% target. But let's be mindful about the Fed's twofold mission, what they call their dual mandate. It is stable prices and maximum employment. Well, the Fed's concern is that second one, it's that the labor market has slowed and see the way it works is pretty simple. Lower interest rates boost employment because it's cheaper for businesses to borrow money that encourages them to expand and hire, which is exactly how lower interest rates help the labor market. That's how more people get hired, and this matters because you need a tenant that can pay the rent. So the bottom line here is to expect lower interest rates on savings accounts, HELOCs, credit cards and automobile loans. What this means to real estate investors is that lower mortgage rates are eminent, although the change should be slow. Two years ago, mortgage rates rose faster than they're going to fall. Now, one thing that lower interest rates can do is lower America's own debt. Servicing costs and America's public debt is drastic. Now, between 35 and $36 trillion in fact, to put our debt into perspective, it has gone galactic. And I mean that in an almost literal sense, because look, if you line up dollars, dollar bills, which are about six inches long, if you line those up end to end from Earth, how far do you think that they would reach? How about to the moon? Oh, no, if you line up dollars end to end, they would stretch beyond the moon. Okay, let's see how far we can follow them out through the solar system. They would breeze past Mars, which is 140 million miles away, the next planet out Jupiter. Oh, our trail of dollar bills would extend beyond that. Next up is Saturn and its ring. The dollar bills would reach beyond that. We're getting to the outer planets now, Uranus still going. Neptune, okay, Neptune is about $30 trillion bills away, and we would have to go beyond that then. So our 35 to $36 trillion of national debt would almost reach Pluto that's galactic. That's amazing. That's bad, and it probably means we have to print more dollars in order to pay back the debt, which is, of course, long term inflationary. And I don't know what's stopping us from going from $36 trillion up to say, 100 trillion, gosh. next week here on the show, we're talking about real estate investing in one of the long time best and still hottest real estate investor states, and then later on, we've got brilliant tax wizard Tom wheelwright returning, as we know here at GRE real estate pays five ways, and if you have any Spanish speaking family or friends, I've got a great way for them to consume all five video modules. It's an AI converting my voice to Spanish in these videos, we have a Spanish speaker here on staff at Get Rich Education, and she said the dub is pretty good. Well, the entire package, real estate pays five ways in Espanol is condensed into a powerful one hour total, all five videos a course, all in one wealth building hour. It's free to watch. There's no email address to enter or anything you can tell your Spanish speaking family and friends, or maybe your multilingual and your primary language is Spanish. That is it getricheducation.com/espanolricheducation.com/espanol or a shorter way to get to the same pageis getricheducation.com/espricheducation.com/esp, that's getricheducation.com/esp.richeducation.com/esp.  This week's guest is one of the first people I ever heard discussing the blockchain and cryptocurrency 15 years ago, and then he was early on AI. What got my attention is his education about a promising construction material for building new real estate, though, I expect that our discussion will delve outside of real estate today as well. Let's meet the incomparable George Gilder. This week's guest is the co founder at the Discovery Institute, discovery.org original pillar of supply side economics, former speechwriter to both Presidents Reagan and Nixon. And he's the author of the classic book on economics called Wealth and Poverty. Today he's at the forefront of technological breakthroughs. He's a Harvard grad. He wears a lot of stripes. I've only mentioned a few. Hey, welcome to GRE George Gilder.   George Gilder  15:09 right there better here.   Keith Weinhold  15:11 It's so good to host you, George, in both your writings and your influences on people like President Reagan, you champion supply side economics. And I think of supply side economics as things like lower taxes, less regulation and free trade. We had someone in the Reagan administration here with us a few months ago, David Stockman. He championed a lot of those same things. But go ahead and tell us more about supply side economics and what that means and how that's put into practice.   George Gilder  15:43 Well, it really begins with human creativity in the image of your Creator, essence of supply side economics now super abundant. I mean supply side economics triumphs. We had the whole information technology revolution ignited during the Reagan years and now dominates the world economy and gives the United States seven out of the top 10 companies in market cap. 70% of global corporate market cap is American companies because of supply side economics amazing, and that's why it's distressing to see supply side economics, with its promise of super abundance and prosperity and opportunity, Give way to narrow nationalistic calculations and four tenths of war. I mean, all these Jews are at the forefront. Today, in time, we're going to see human creativity once again prevail in my books, Life After Capitalism is my latest book, my new paradigm is graphene. Graphene is a single layer of carbon atoms, two dimensional layer of carbon atoms that is 200 times stronger than steel, 1000 times more conductive than copper. It switches and the terahertz trillions of times a second, rather than the billions of times a second that our current silicon chips which and you mix it with concrete, the concrete comes 35% stronger, just parts per million of graphene mixed with concrete yields some material that's 35% stronger than ordinary concrete. You mix a parts per million of graphene with asphalt, the roads don't get potholes in the winter. It's radically Abate, but it conducts signals so accurately. If you go on YouTube, you can find a mouse and said it's spinal cord severed completely, injected with graphene, the spinal signals transmitted so accurately that the you see the mouse doing cartwheels by the end of the YouTube measure. I mean, it's material that's going to transform all industries, from real estate to medicine to surgery to electronics. Electronics been kind of the spearhead of our economy, of the transformation and electronics may be more significant than any other domain.   Keith Weinhold  18:49 Well, this is a terrific overview of all the contributions you're making to both the economic world and the technology world with what you told us about right there. And I do want to ask you some more about the graphene and the technology later. But you know, if we bring it back to the economics, it was in your classic book, Wealth and Poverty, which sold over a million copies, where you espouse a lot of the same things that you still espouse today in your more recent books, that is, capitalism begins with giving, we can often think of it that way. As a real estate investor is where we need to give tenants a clean, safe, affordable, functional property before we profit. Capitalism begins with giving.   George Gilder  19:32 Absolutely. That's a crucial debate I had with Ayn Rand The Fountainhead and Atlas Shrugged and I say, capitalism is subsist on altruism. I'm concerned for the interests of others, imaginative anticipation of the needs of others. It's an altruistic, generous system, and from that generosity. Stems the amazing manifestations of super abundance that which I've been writing about recently. And super abundance shows, measured by time prices, how many hours a typical worker has to spend to earn the goods and services that sustain its life. Yeah, that's where the real cost has time. Yeah, time is money. Money is time, tokenized time, and measured by time, economic growth has been 50 to just enormously faster than is estimated by any of the GDP numbers. However, measured by time government services or ordinary GDP assumes that every dollar of government spending is worth what it costs. Prices both show that progress in the private sector has been four or five times faster than is estimated by GDP well government time, price of government dominated goods, including, increasingly, healthcare and education, is way less valuable than the cost. It's value subtracted, and certainly trillions of dollars for windmills and solar panels, trillions of dollars of subsidies is a net subtraction of value in the world economy. So I am with Gale Pooley and Tupy, both who wrote a book called Superabundance that I wrote the introduction to, and William Nordhaus, the Nobel laureate from Yale, who really conceived and developed time prices and showed that economic growth is 1000s of times greater than has been estimated by ordinary economic data. This is a time of abundance. It's not a time of scarcity. It's not a time of the dismal science. It's the time of super abundance.   Keith Weinhold  22:17 Yes, 100% a lot of that is just the government getting out of the way and really let people be givers, be that go giver and lead with giving, because I have never heard of a society that's taxed its way to prosperity.   George Gilder  22:34 Yeah. Well, that's absolutely the case. And I've been talking previously about graphene, which is the great new material that has been discovered of the last a couple decades. It originated, a lot of the science originated in Jim Tour's laboratory. James Tour of Rice University, and he's had scores of companies have emerged from his laboratory, and 18 of them got started in Israel. Israel is really become a leading force in the world economy. And when Israel is in jeopardy, our economy is in jeopardy. We have 100,000 Israeli citizens working in companies in Silicon Valley, 100,000 all the leading American tech companies have outposts in Israel, and now we face what I call the Israel test, which is how you respond to people who are really superior in creativity and accomplishment and intellect, and the appropriate thing to do is emulate them and learn from them. But too many people in the world see success and they want to tear it down, or they think it was stolen from someone else, or it was part of a zero sum game where the riches of one person necessarily come at the expense of someone else, which is the opposite of the truth, the riches proliferate opportunities for others. That's how the economy grows through the creativity and the image of your Creator.   Keith Weinhold  24:25 And when you bring up Israel, they're one of many nations that's made strong contributions to society and the economy, and we think about other nations that's been an increasingly relevant conversation these past few years, a lot of that centers on immigration. I'm not an expert on how many people we should let into this country or any of those sort of policy sorts of things, but here is a real estate investing show. I often think about where and how we're going to house all these immigrants, whether they come from Central America or South America or Israel or. Anywhere else. And I know oftentimes you've touted immigrations economic benefits, so I think it's pretty easy for one to see how in the short term, immigrants could be of economic detriment, but tell us more about those long term economic benefits of immigrants coming to the United States.   George Gilder  25:17 Immigrants come to the United States and become Americans and contribute American opportunity and wealth. We won the second world war because of immigration of Jewish scientists from Europe to the United States, who led by people like John von Neumann and Oppenheimer who forged the Manhattan Project, and that's really how we won the Second World War, was by accepting brilliant immigrants who wanted to serve America. Now there is a threat today where immigrants come to the United States not to contribute to the United States, but to exploit the United States, or even destroy it, not to go givers. They are givers, and so we want immigrants who are inclined to commit to America and create opportunities for the world, but immigrants who want to tear down America and who believe that America owes them something tend to be less productive and less valuable immigrants and immigrants who really want to destroy western civilization, and the jihadists that we know about are actually a threat to America. So the immigration problem isn't simple, but when we had a system where legal immigrants could apply and enter our country and revitalize it, that was a wonderful system, but having boards of illegal immigrants just pour over the border is not an intelligent way to deal with the desire of people around the world to share an American prosperity.   Keith Weinhold  27:13 We've seen several cases in the past year or two where immigrants are given free housing. There are really great case studies about this in Massachusetts and some other places, how they're giving housing before oftentimes, our own Americans, including sometimes retired veterans, are provided with housing. This all comes down to the housing crunch and already having a low housing supply. So what are some more your thoughts about just how much of a layup or a handout should we give new immigrants?   George Gilder  27:42 Housing technology is going to be transformed by the material science revolution that is epitomized by graphene, this miracle material I was describing. I think part of the problem is real estate enterprise is over regulated, and there are too many obstacles to the building of innovative new forms of housing. In 20 years, it'll be hard to recognize many of the structures that emerge as a result of real revolution in material science that is epitomized by this graphene age that I've been describing, and that also will transform electronics as well, and part housing can become a kind of computer platform as Elon Musk is transforming the auto business by seeing Tesla is really a new form of computer platform. I believe there's going to be an Elon Musk of real estate who is going to re envisage housing as a new form of building a computer platform that makes intelligent houses of the future that will be both cheaper and more commodious for human life.   Keith Weinhold  29:12 Real estate is rather old and slow moving when we think about technology in real estate, maybe what comes to mind are smart thermostats, smart doorbells, or 3d printed homes. When we come back, we're going to learn more about graphene and what it can do in real estate in the nanocosm revolution. Our guest is George Gilder. We talked about economics. We're coming back to talk about technology. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold. Keith Weinhold  Hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine, at Ridge lending group NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with less. Ridge you can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start now while it's on your mind at ridgelendinggroup.com That's ridgelendinggroup.com. Your bank is getting rich off of you. The national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings. If your money isn't making 4% you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk, your cash generates up to an 8% return with compound interest year in and year out, instead of earning less than 1% sitting in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25k you keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back. Their decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And I would know, because I'm an investor too, earn 8% hundreds of others are text FAMILY to 66866, learn more about freedom. Family Investments Liquidity Fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text FAMILY to 66866.   Dolf Deroos  31:19 This is the king of commercial real estate. Dolph de Roos, listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.   Keith Weinhold  31:32 Welcome back to Get Rich Education. We're joined by an illustrious, legendary guest, George Gilder, among being other things, including a prolific writer. He's also the former speechwriter to presidents Reagan and Nixon. He's got a really illustrious and influential career. George, you've been talking about graphene, something that I don't think our audience is very familiar with, and I'm not either. Tell us about graphene promise in real estate.   George Gilder  31:59 Well, back in Manchester, England, in 2004 graphene was first discovered and formulated. It actually was submerged before then, but the Nobel Prizes were awarded to Geim and Novoselov in2010.  So this is a new material that all of us know when we use a lead pencil, a lead is graphite, and graphene is a single layer of graphite. And it turns out, many people imagined if you had a single layer of graphite, it would just break up. It would not be useful.   Keith Weinhold  32:42 We're talking super thin, like an atom.   George Gilder  32:45 Yeah, it's an atom thick, but still, it turns out that it has miraculous properties, that it's 200 times stronger than steel. If you put it in a trampoline, you couldn't see the trampoline, but you could bounce on it without go following through it. It can stop bullets. It means you can have invisible and almost impalpable bulletproof vests, and you mix it with concrete, and the concrete is becomes 35% stronger, even parts per million of graphene can transform the tensile strength of concrete, greatly reduce the amount you need, and enable all sorts of new architectural shapes and capabilities. We really are in the beginning of a new technological age, and all depressionary talk you hear is really going to be eclipsed over coming decades by the emergence of whole an array of new technologies, graphene, for instance, as a perfect film on wafer of silicon carbide and enable what's called terahertz electronics, which is trillions of cycles a second like light rather than billions of cycles a second like or Nvidia or L silicon chips, and it really obviates chips, because you what it allows is what's called wafer scale integration of electronics, and today, it the semiconductor industry, and I've written 10 books on semiconductors over the years, but the semiconductor industry functions by 12 inch wafers that get inscribed with all sorts of complex patterns that are a billionth of a meter in diameter. These big wafers and then the way. First get cut up into 1000s of little pieces that each one gets encapsulated in plastic packages and by some remote Asian islands, and then get implanted on printed circuit boards that arrayed in giant data centers that now can on track to consume half the world's energy over the next 20 years, and these new and all this technology is ultimately going to be displaced by wafer scale integration on The wafer itself. You can have a whole data center on a 12 inch wafer with no chips. It's on the wafer itself. And this has been recently announced in a paper from Georgia Tech by a great scientist named Walter de Heere. And it's thrilling revolution that that render as much as Silicon Valley obsolescent and opens up just huge opportunities in in construction and real estate and architecture and medicine and virtually across the range of contemporary industry.   Keith Weinhold  36:20 You wrote a book about blockchain and how we're moving into the post Google world is what you've called it. So is this graphene technology that you're discussing with us here? Is that part of the next thing, which you're calling the nanocosm revolution?   George Gilder  36:36 The microcosm was an earlier book the quantum revolution and economics and technology. I thought I wrote years ago called microcosm.   Keith Weinhold  36:46 Okay, we're getting smaller than microcosm now in nanocosm.   36:49 that was microns, that was millionths of a meter dimensions of the transistors and devices and silicon chips, the nanocosm is a billionth of the meter. It's 1000 times smaller the features and electronics of the future, and we're moving from the microcosm into the nanocosm. New materials like graphene epitomize this transformation. You know, people think that these giant data centers all around the world, which are amazing structures, but half the energy in these data centers are devoted to removing the heat rather than fueling the computation. And I believe these data centers are represent a kind of IBM mainframe of the current era. When I was coming up, people imagined that a few 100 IBM mainframe computers, each weighing about a ton, would satisfy all the world's needs for computation, and that new artificial minds could be created with these new IBM mainframes. And it's the same thing today, only we're talking about data centers, and I believe that the coming era will allow data centers in your pocket and based on graphene electronics, and wait for scale integration, a whole new paradigm that will make the current data centers look like obsolete, old structures that need to be revitalized.   Keith Weinhold  38:37 Around 2007 Americans and much of the world, they got used to how it feels to have the power of a computer in their pocket with devices like the iPhone. How would it change one's everyday life to have effectively a data center in their pocket?   38:54 This means that we no longer would be governments of a few giant companies hearing a singular model of intelligence. That's what's currently envisaged, that Google Brain or Facebook or these giant data setters would sum up all human intelligence and in a particular definition, but there are now 8 billion human beings on earth, and each of our minds is as densely connected as the entire global internet. And while the global Internet consumes error watts, trillions of watts of power, or brains. Each of these 8 billion human minds functions on 12 to 14 watts, or it's billions of times less than these data center systems. On the internet. I believe that technology works to the extent that it expands human capabilities, not to the extent that it displaces human capabilities. The emergence of distributed databases in all our pockets, distributed knowledge and distributed creativity can revitalize the whole world economy and open new horizons that are hard to imagine today, as long as we don't, all of a sudden decide that we live in a material universe where everything is scarce and successes by one person come at the expense of somebody else, as long as that zero sum model doesn't prevail, right? Human opportunities are really unlimited. Most of economics has been based on a false model of scarcity, the only thing that's really scarce is time. Imagination and creativity are really infinite.   Keith Weinhold  41:10 Yes, well, if someone wants to learn more about graphene in the nanocosm revolution, how can you help them? What should they do?   41:18 They can read my newsletters. I have a company with four newsletters. I write the Gilder Technology Report. Much of the time I write, John Schroeder writes moonshots, which is and I have a Gilder Private Reserve that reaches out with our crowd and Israel, and a lot of those graph gene companies in Israel are part of our Private Reserve. And I do Gilders Guide posts, and those are all available getgilder.com.   Keith Weinhold  41:56 if you'd like to learn more about George and his popular newsletter called the Gilder Technology Report. You can learn more about that at get gilder.com George, it's been an enlightening conversation about economics and where society is moving next. Thanks so much for coming on to the show.   George Gilder  42:16 Thank you, Keith. I really appreciate it.   Keith Weinhold  42:24 yeah, a forward looking discussion with the great George Gilder. Forbes said graphene may be the next multi trillion dollar material. George will tell you that you want to get into graphene now, while the biggest gains are still ahead. If it interests you in at least learning more, check out his video resource. It's free. There's also an opportunity for you to be an investor. You can do all of that and more at getgilder.com again getguilder.com until next week. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold. Don't Quit Your Daydream.   43:04 nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of Get Rich Education LLC, exclusively.   Keith Weinhold  43:32 The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. GetRichEducation.com

Get Rich Education
516: Is Every Debt Worth Paying Off?

Get Rich Education

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 26, 2024 40:24


In this episode Keith shares the survey results on what the highest rising cost for landords is and what to do about it. He challenges the conventional wisdom that all debts should be paid off.  He talks about how the rising costs of homeowners insurance and property taxes are the most significant expenses for single family landlords 76% of single family landlords plan to raise rents over the next 12 months, with 35% expecting increases over 4%. Learn about the concept of debt as leverage and its role in wealth building. The importance of liquidity, interest rate arbitrage, and the ability to outsource debt payments. How inflation impacts debt. Understand the benefits of debt in real estate investment, including the ability to own more properties and create arbitrage opportunities. Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/516 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREmarketplace.com/Coach Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai    Keith Weinhold  00:00 Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, the economy is affecting real estate in some interesting ways. Now, vital trends revealed from a survey of single family landlords. Then the heart of today's show is every debt that you have worth paying off. The answer is no, with some surprising reasons all today on Get Rich Education. When you want the best real estate and finance info, the modern Internet experience limits your free articles access, and it's replete with paywalls and you've got pop ups and push notifications and cookies, disclaimers. Oh, had no other time in history has it been more vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that actually adds no hype value to your life? See, this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself, it's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point to get the letter. It couldn't be more simple. Text, GRE 66866 and when you start the free newsletter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate course, completely free. It's called The Don't quit your Daydream letter and it wires your mind for wealth. Make sure you read it. Text GRE to 66866, text GRE to 66866.   Corey Coates  01:34 You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is Get Rich Education.   Keith Weinhold  01:51 Welcome to GRE you are listening to the voice of real estate investing since 2014 I'm your host, Keith Weinhold back to help you build your wealth for another week. This is Get Rich Education. That's just one of many things that makes this show different from other shows, or just consuming news stories. Here, you stay updated on important real estate investing trends, but you learn specific strategies to actionably build your wealth. That's the difference, and it's with the most generationally proven medium of real estate, all without you having to be a flipper and often not a landlord either. Now, presidential candidates make lots of promises during their campaigns, that includes with real estate here recently, even if you're listening 10 years from now, I'll tell you how to put something like this into perspective. Kamala Harris unveiled her plan to spur the construction of 3 million more housing units. That's a good thing. America needs more housing. She also wants to give federal assistance, and by the way, that means your money. She wants to give federal assistance in the form of a $25,000 down payment help for first time home buyers. I see that as a bad thing, and see there's no partisan bias here at GRE a lot of media outlets, they will filter something like this is all good or all bad, because they get better ratings when they rile people up, and that results in a divided America. But the problem is that the 25k of down payment help that can be delivered faster than new homes can be built, and that risks pushing up home prices faster, sooner, which arose the very affordability that's trying to be helped here now a presidential candidate, be it Kamala Harris or anyone when they have this enthusiasm to also limit price gouging at grocery stores here, like this candidate does. I mean, that's the beginning of price controls, and when there are price controls, no farmer is going to want to produce cherry tomatoes or Fisher is going to want to produce wild caught salmon if they have a significant price ceiling limiting the supply of those things. Therefore, I mean, when we had price controls in the high inflation 70s, that created shortages. And it's important to keep in mind that presidential campaign promises, they often don't become policies that are enacted even if that person is elected president, and even if they are, much of this still requires congressional approval, and we still have a divided Congress, and any tax changes require the approval of Congress. So really, this stuff is just a presidential wish list, giving you some perspective here. Now on the topic of shortages, there still is not enough available supply of US homes, active listings, those seeking a starter home often get more worn out than your grandpa after two games of checkers. But inventory levels are not as bad as they used to be, we still got a ways to go to claw back close to a more normal, balanced pre pandemic housing supply level nationally, we are still 29% lower. There are now still 29% fewer active listings than there were in pre pandemic times and most individual states still have inventory levels lower than that, too, compared to five years ago, when we break it down by state, some have a more paltry supply than others, though, places with the scarcest inventory, they seem To be those states where maple syrup gets produced, as it turns out, and I sure hope that this doesn't mean people need to sleep in the sugar shack. Connecticut is down 75% that means they have 75% less inventory than five years ago, pre pandemic, Illinois down 66%,  New Jersey down 57%, Virginia down 53%, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts and Michigan all with 51% less inventory than they had pre pandemic. Ohio down 43%, California and Missouri each down 31%. The main problem here is that the Northeast and Midwest have not had enough home building in order to keep up with housing demand. I guess what? There were too many snow days in the Northeast and Midwest, or were builders constantly distracted by potholes and cicadas? Conversely, there are three popular investor states where for sale inventory is just a tad higher now than it was five years ago. Texas is up 6%, Florida up 5%, Tennessee up 2% and this doesn't mean that these states are oversupplied with housing, it just means that they have a touch more than they did in 2019 so they're closer to balance. The important overall thing to remember here is, of course, that nationally, buyers still outnumber sellers. So between the lower mortgage rates that we've had in the past year and the low supply, this keeps the environment ripe. There will be more offers and more potential for home prices to increase faster than its current rate of 4.1%. That 4.1% year over year, as per the NAR, it's important for you to understand that there's virtually no way that prices can revert to their pre pandemic levels. Home prices are not going back to where they used to be five years ago. In fact, there is more pressure on them to rise from here not fall, and there are a few reasons why prices cannot go back to where they were. The rate of inflation has slowed. You've seen the price of lumber come down, but wider inflation has been indelibly baked into the pricing cake. Homes now have higher, permanently embedded costs of labor, materials and land that all have more stick-to-itiveness to them than Simone Biles on the balance beam. Prices are not coming down anytime in the near future. You might remember that right here on this show in in our newsletter, back in late December, eight months ago, I forecast that national home prices would rise 4% this year, and I still really like how that looks.  I'll get back to the investment side here shortly, but real quick, in light of the new rules about how real estate agents are compensated if you're about to buy a primary residence, you may not have any experience negotiating with a broker. In last week's newsletter, I sent you a template you can use and that can help you simplify the process as a buyer and help you avoid being taken advantage of. I sent you that template last Thursday. Back here on the real estate investor side, after a high tide of inflation, you know, you and I, we have all surely enjoyed the splash of both higher property prices and rents. That looks to continue. But what about your higher property expenses, too? Let's talk about what you've got to do to avoid getting crunched by expenses. A survey of single family landlords was recently conducted by lending one in resi club, and they asked this question, what is your expense that increased the most the past 12 months? The number one answer is fast rising insurance premiums, with half of respondents citing that as their biggest expense increase item. And that's hardly a new development, not surprising. The next biggest expense was property tax,  27% of respondents cited that. That's mostly a reflection of higher property values and their consequent tax assessments. 235 single family landlords completed this survey, by the way. So they were the proportion of landlords that answered about what was their fastest increasing expense. Half of them said insurance, easily the most well, the rate of increase in homeowners insurance costs was roughly 10 to 12% nationally last year. That's according to the Insurance Information Institute, and the top two reasons for this are more severe storms and higher replacement costs. The good news is that further rate increases are cooling off, though, all right, but still, what are you to do as a rental property owner that's stuck with a higher property insurance bill? I've got a great answer for you, and it's so incredibly simple. You pass the expense along to your tenant with a rent increase, and then others can deal with what happens downstream from there. And I'll tell you how to go about doing this shortly, which is also so incredibly simple. But if you're reluctant to pass along the increased insurance expense to your tenant, understand that you and your tenant are just like two ports along a river. As this wave of inflation flows along, it flows from the reinsurer to the insurer, to you, the property owner, to the increased rent, to the hike in the tenant wage, to the employer, and then the employer hikes prices on the consumer. That's how the river flows. No watered down returns for you. Now, of course, this River's headwaters are sourced with the government, because that's where inflation comes from. Inflation means an expansion of the money supply. You and your tenant are really two ports along the river. Don't let the expense water dam up and flood you, and the written reason that you give your tenant for the rent increase is drum roll here, higher insurance costs. Yeah, that's it. It's super simple. There's no need to be inventive here. Honesty is therefore the best river raft. Hey, come on now this remorseless geography degree holder has got to let loose with something like river references from time to time. So that's the greatest expense increase item, what to do about it and how you should go about doing it. Now this same survey of single family landlords, they showed that 76% expect to reach high watermarks and raise the rent over the next 12 months, including 35% of landlords who say the rent increase will be over 4% and planned rent increases of one to 7% are most common. That's the planned rent increase range one to 7%. Look, you didn't get into real estate to subsidize others living expenses. There is nothing unethical about adjusting to market level rent. Rent hikes are like a lock lifting your ship through the Panama Canal. All right, so what do we make of this. I mean, gaging, overall investor sentiment is we head later into the 2020s, decade. What is the landlord temperature? As I see it, expenses are up. Higher. Rents follow. And last quarter, home values increased in almost 90% of us, Metro markets, yes, property values are up in 89% of Metro markets. But how do single family landlords in this same survey feel? Well, 60% of them say they will buy at least one investment property over the next 12 months. So most single family landlords they want to buy more. And when that's broken down by region, the most single family real estate investor optimism is in the Midwest, Northeast and South. And really single family landlords are optimistic in every region except the West. And this makes sense. Cash Flows are less lucrative in the West because prices have long outpaced rents there, the survey really shows that most aren't wildly bullish or excessively bearish on the real estate market. They expect it to stay balanced. Many plan to buy properties raise rents, and the survey shows that they, too, expect a 4% home price appreciation rate. That's what it showed, and they anticipate falling interest rates.  Now, personally, I often disagree with what the masses think. I mean, contrarians to the mainstream, they are often the profiteers. But in this case, I guess I'm more agreeable with the survey respondents than a perfectly brewed cup of coffee in the morning. And well, maybe that's because single family landlords, the very people that were surveyed are not mainstream. The housing market is actually pretty normal in most every significant way, except, of course, the ongoing lack of housing inventory and affordability challenges for first time homebuyers. And if you're a newer GRE listener, even normal times can be thrilling for a real estate investor when you achieve a 40% plus total rate of return from how real estate pays you five ways. Yes, if you're new here, I know that sounds like an unachievable return, but 40% plus is actually realistic without high risk when you understand your five simultaneous profit sources with income producing property. In fact, when someone asks why you invest in real estate, you can just hold up five fingers. The broader economy shows a lot of signs of normalcy as well, GDP, growth, consumer spending, unemployment, the inflation rate, but the sad exception here is this widening gap between the wealthy and the poor, so I guess that more people charter yachts and yet others increasingly pour mountain dew on their fruit loops in the morning for breakfast. Now, complete uncertainty never disappears, but after disruptions from covid, high inflation and new wars, a lot of people see calmer times ahead. Elections matter, but some people seem more concerned about who the next President will be than the parent of a Sephora obsessed teen. Presidential elections aren't known to rock the real estate market, and actually, history shows that the more sensitive stock market is only temporarily affected by an election. Sometimes I just ponder and quietly think to myself, hmm, when the liquid death drink brand thrives from Hawking wildly overpriced water in a can, I posit just how bad can the economy really be? The bottom line is that most single family investors are meeting higher insurance expenses with rent increases and they want to buy more income property over the next 12 months.  Hey, if you like this show here, and you get value from it every week, I love it when you just simply tell a friend about the show, it's as easy as having them download our dedicated Get Rich Education mobile app for both iOS and Android. If you think you have any friends that would benefit from the vital episode here, I'd be grateful if you shared the show with them, use the Share button on your podcaster, or even take a screenshot and post it to your social. Straight ahead is any debt worth paying off? I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to Get Rich Education.  Hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine, at Ridge Lending Group NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation, because they specialize in income properties, they help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start now while it's on your mind at Ridgelendinggroup.com that's Ridgelendinggroup.com.   Keith Weinhold  19:47 Your bank is getting rich off of you. The national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings. If your money isn't making 4% you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work with minimum risk, your cash generates up to an 8% return with compound interest, year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% sitting in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25k, you keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back. Their decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And I would know, because I'm an investor too, earn 8% hundreds of others are text FAMILY  to 66866, learn more about Freedom Family Investments, Liquidity Fund, on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text, FAMILY to 66866.   Dani-Lynn Robison  20:49 This is Freedom Family Investments Co-founder, Dani-Lynn Robison, listen to Get Rich Education with Keith Weinhold, and Don't Quit Your Daydream.   Keith Weinhold  20:57 Welcome back to Get Rich Education. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, you're listening to Episode 516 is every debt that you have worth paying off? The short answer is no. I have held millions of dollars in debt from a young age, and I just keep holding on to more and more. Look what happens to your net worth when you pay down one of your debts, absolutely nothing happens to your net worth. It stays the same. All right. Say that the total value of all of your assets gives you a sum of one and a half million dollars. That's the combined value of any of your real estate, cars, retirement accounts, gold, Bitcoin, all of it, anything of value one and a half million and totaling up all of your debts equals just a half million. That's your mortgages, automobile debt, credit card debt, everything. All right, so you've got one and a half million in assets and 500k in debt. So you've got a million dollar net worth, okay, well, next, say that you decide to pay down 100k of your debt. All right. Well, what's the result? You've got only $1.4 million in assets and just 400k in debt. Well, the result is that your net worth is still a million bucks. You've now got fewer assets and less debt, so you just broke even. But it could be worse than just a break even, because what if, one month after you made this debt pay down. You now need that 100k back for living expenses, but you can no longer get it returned to you because you lost your job, so no one will qualify you for a loan again, or you still have your job. But lending standards have tightened and changed now your 100k is on the other side of a wall that you can't access. So debt pay down isn't just a question of net worth, it's liquidity. And there are some more layers here that we're going to get into paying down mortgage debt. It also builds home equity. Well, that is usually a bad thing, because, as I'm known for saying, home equity is unsafe, illiquid, and its rate of return is always zero. Do you know the crowd that sometimes forgets this and really gets penalized? It is seniors, retirees. All right, what happens when a person is older and they've had a paid off home for a while. People get a reverse mortgage. They need funds for living expenses. Well, reverse mortgages, they have high fees, and also you can't get nearly all of your equity out. You'll often only get up to 60 to 65% loan to value, meaning that 35 to 40% of that hard earned equity that you worked decades for. First it became trapped with no return, and now it's essentially gone. Poof. For all those years, your home is paid off, even if it began as early as your 30s, like it does for some people all that time your equity wasn't earning any rate of return. And the earlier in life you learned that the ROI from home equity is always zero, the better. You didn't see any bill for this loss. You just never saw the gain that you should have had. And that's part of the reason why this myth that home equity is such a great thing perpetuates and carries on for generations. All right, well, we are just getting warmed up here at a key financial question in your life. That question is, is every debt that you have worth paying off?   24:58 Did you know millions of Americans live with debt they cannot control. That's why I developed this unique new program for managing your debt. It's called Don't buy stuff you cannot afford. Let me see that. If you don't have any money, you should not buy anything. hmm sounds interesting, sounds confusing.   Keith Weinhold  25:24 Well, there's a little something to be said for that. But what about interest rate? If that 100k that you paid down was for credit card debt? All right? Well, that was probably a good thing. 44% of American credit card holders carry debt month to month. Now I'm going to guess for you the GRE listener, it's even less likely than that that you carry debt month per month, where you would be subject to credit card finance charges. The average credit card interest rate in America is about 25% today, and it is unsecured debt, meaning that it's a debt type that's not backed by collateral. Now, yes, you can beat a 25% return if you're leveraged in real estate, but your liquid cash flow drain is drastic on credit cards. The other problem with credit cards is that you have to pay your own debt. Later, I'll talk about when others pay your debt for you. And if you have decided that you have some debts worth paying down because its interest rate is too high for goodness sake, pay the one with the highest interest rate first. I know there's a school of thought that says, pay the debt with the lowest balance. First, that is nonsense. Now, sometimes, if you know specifically what you're doing with credit cards, you can play some little games with them. I mean, personally, after I finished college, I kept transferring credit card balances with 0% APR, Intro offers, introductory offers that were for a limited time at 0% and then I kept track of that so that intro rate didn't expire. But this isn't any sort of long term wealth building strategy. Higher balance transfer fees have made that strategy less lucrative. Now too, banks have tightened that up. When it comes to interest rates, it's about that arbitrage. Ask yourself really two questions when it comes to arbitrage, which is just a fancy sounding way of making a profit or a spread. First, you need to ask yourself, how good of an investor Are you? What percent return can you reliably earn from your investments? Say you think it's 15% then if you're plus 15 but the interest rate on your debt is 8, well, then you've got 7 points of arbitrage or profit. So keep the 8% debt. And then secondly on arbitrage plays. Ask yourself, can I afford the cash flow if I keep this debt around? Because if you're 15% return, just say that it's all tied up in the appreciation of a property. Well, that's not very liquid, so you're going to need to have the free cash to make the payments on your 8% interest rate loan. Let's talk about other times not to pay down the debt. Say you're trying to build up an emergency fund of at least three months, or you want to contribute to your employer match in your company's retirement plan, you may very well want to fund those things before you pay down debt too. Now some say, hey, you know something. Just forget about all these numbers like rates of return and interest rates. You know, debt just makes me feel anxiety and feel stress and sleeplessness. There is emotion here, so let me just get it paid off. Or I'm afraid that if I've got some money and I don't pay off my debt, that I'll just lose all of the money to sports gambling, and to that, I say, come on, be an adult. Set some boundaries. Dog ears, some cash for entertainment, and have a firm line. Learn how to use that to your advantage. Debt is like fire. It can burn you if you don't know how to use it, and it can heat your home if you do know how to use it. And if debt gives you sleeplessness. Here, this will help you sleep your debts, principal balance is being debased for you as you sleep, every single one of your debts is being eroded by inflation. Right now, as you listen to me, your principal balance is quietly, debasing and passively, eroding with your say 500k of total debt. We have 10% inflation over a couple years. Well, that erodes its weight down to 450k all without you having to get involved and make any pay downs at all. As wages go higher, and so do prices and rents and salaries, as they all spiral higher, it gets easier to pay back those principal balances. And debt is the most powerful wealth building force that I know of, because debt is leverage. Compound interest is weak. Leverage is powerful. Debt allows you to own and control five times as many properties as you could if they were all paid off. And if you don't understand this, or if your jaw hit the floor, what I just said a minute ago, that compound interest is weak. I just discussed this for you in clear detail nine weeks ago, on Get Rich Education podcast episode 507. So go and check that out. One attribute of real estate debt is that as you get properties where the rent income meets or exceeds the expenses, congratulations, you have reliably outsourced all of your debt payments to tenants. See, most of my debt, personally, virtually all of it, it isn't really going to be paid back by me. It's my tenants, and that is another reason to keep debt in place and only make the minimum payment. Let's talk about another reason to pay down your debt when a payoff or pay down actually does make sense, even if it's at a low interest rate, it's when an outside force kind of makes you pay down your debt. And here's what I'm talking about. Say you're trying to buy a property, whether that's a primary residence or rental, and that you've got say, Oh, just $11,000 left to pay on your car loan at a 5% interest rate, even though you can't outsource the payments. That's a pretty nice low 5% interest rate, you're confident that you can beat that and earn more elsewhere, so you'd rather enjoy the positive arbitrage instead of paying that off. And I'd feel the same way. But here's the twist, your mortgage loan officer says you've got to pay the $11,000 down to zero because your debt to income ratio is too high. So if you want the mortgage, the big loan amount, you've got to pay off the car loan, the little loan amount. Well, that's a case when it makes sense to pay off that automobile loan debt then, and also, when it comes to your credit score, you might need to improve it to qualify for another loan so you can get a low interest rate and 30% of your FICO score is made up of your amounts owed. I'm answering a vital question for you today, and that is, is every one of your debts worth paying off? I'm sharing information, perspective and experience with you here, and this experience was built, just like all experiences, and I didn't always have the experience, of course. Now my parents and I split my college loan costs, 5050, I still had student loan debts for a few years after graduating, and you know, I can't remember what my student loan interest rates were maybe 6% blended because I had a few different student loans, some of which I did transfer onto those 0% intro, APR credit cards, by the way. But after my student loans were paid off, and I started investing in real estate and understanding terms like leverage and arbitrage, you know, I started to wonder if it would be desirable to have those student loans back rather than paying them off so fast I could have owned another property or two sooner, and I'll never know the opportunity cost of not benefiting from the returns on owning more Property sooner. And of course, student loan debt is one of the few debt types that cannot be written off in bankruptcy that tilts back a little toward paying them off sooner than later.  What you just heard me talk about here for the last 15 or so minutes is a message that hundreds of millions of people need to hear it's that not every debt is worth paying off or even paying down. So to help give you a summary answer to our question, is every debt worth paying off? The answer is no, and the key considerations are liquidity, interest rate arbitrage inyour ability to outsource the debt. Debt is good when it helps you buy a cash flowing asset or create arbitrage. Debt is probably even good when it helps you buy a home for your family and have a sense of permanency and a mantle to place baseballs and hang Christmas stockings from and build memories. And now this is all because every single one of us either uses debt or we forego the opportunity to use debt. Well, when we forego using debt, we are now subject to a resultant opportunity cost, and this is why a central and enduring mantra here at GRE is that financially free beats debt free. Financially free means that you have enough residual income streams to meet all of your expenses and live just how you want to live. Debt Free means that you don't owe anyone anything, but if you put debt free before financially free, you are going to grind and live below your means and eat dirt and miss opportunities for decades.   And speaking of leveraging your way to financial freedom with assets, the way that we actionably help you here is by recommending income producing providers and properties for you. And you probably noticed over time that GRE marketplace properties here are less expensive than elsewhere. And you might wonder why exactly is this? Well, there's a few reasons. Investor advantage markets have low prices. Also, there is no agent you get to buy directly. Thirdly, providers provide homes in bulk, keeping your costs down. And then finally, there are no owner occupied emotions involved here with buying and owning rental properties, so you don't have sellers that are making unreasonable requests. So this helps answer why GRE marketplace properties are often good deals. Now it seems like states with the best cash flow in real estate are the same ones where people are more likely to wear bib overalls. That's just how it is. In fact. Hey, case in point, I just learned about some brand new, new build single family rentals in southwest Missouri at GRE marketplace. They're available for you to own regardless of where you live. They make ideal rentals, and they come with free property management for the first year. And because they're freshly built. Expect the likelihood of a quality tenant, light maintenance and low repair costs for years. Let me just quickly mention two of them to give you a feel. The first one is in Carthage, Missouri. The single family rental is three bed, two bath. Rent 1550 the price is 206k it's 1200 square feet, built this year. You get a $1,200 rent credit with it. So it's going to take a 51k down payment, and it produces cash flow. The second one is in Carl Junction, Missouri, four bed two bath in this single family rental. The rents $1,875 the price $250,500 1683 square feet built this year. 62k down and produces cash flow. And like I said, both come with free property management for the first year, and we can help set up an entire real estate investment plan for you, whether it's with these properties or others in multiple states, where we help you make it easy on yourself and contact a GRE investment coach. It is truly free always. There aren't going to be any hidden coaching bills that pop up in the mail. We don't have some paid coaching program. We're trying to upsell you. We don't have anything to sell, and our coaches are like advisors, consultants, super connectors and like silent partners on your deals, and they get zero equity in the deal. And our coaches don't wear Bib Overalls either. So they keep it really relatable for you, make it actionable and make a real difference in your life, start at gremarketplace.com. That's where you can contact a GRE investment coach, and we'll see how we can help you out from gremarketplace.com just click on the free investment coaching button.  Until next week, I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, and I'll be back to help you build your wealth, Don't Quit Your Daydream.   39:46 Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed or investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively.   Keith Weinhold  40:06 The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. GetRichEducation.com.

On The Market
August Mortgage Rate Update & Should You Buy/Refi Now?

On The Market

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 26, 2024 30:36


Mortgage rates are falling, but the Fed hasn't made any rate cuts yet. What's the deal? We're explaining it all in this August mortgage rate update with repeat guest and lender-friend of the show, Caeli Ridge. Caeli fills us in on today's mortgage interest rates, why rates are moving without any federal funds rate cuts happening, what could cause rates to go even lower, and whether paying points on your mortgage makes sense in the current market. Good news for investors: interest rates are getting into the high sixes for some rental property loans, but lower rates aren't always a good thing. With the economy slowing down and inflation (thankfully) seeing some significant progress, unemployment is rising, and better interest rates may come at the cost of a worse economy. But this isn't a surprise, no matter how unfortunate it is for many workers in today's market. We're getting Caeli's take on the Fed's next moves, today's mortgage rates, and what's in store for future rates. This is crucial commentary from a lender working on loan products for investors in today's exact interest rate environment, and hearing her may change your next investing move. Dave also gives his opinion on the mortgage rates we could expect to see next year and whether buying or refinancing even makes sense now. In This Episode We Cover August 2024 mortgage rate updates and where investor interest rates are right now Why mortgage rates have been falling WITHOUT the Fed lowering their rates Paying mortgage points and whether or not it's worth it if rates are continuing to fall The BIG uptick in refinancing and purchasing activity since rates began to fall Where Dave thinks mortgage rates could be next year And So Much More! Links from the Show Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Join BiggerPockets for FREE  Find Investor-Friendly Lenders See Dave at BPCON2024 in Cancun! Dave's BiggerPockets Profile Caeli's BiggerPockets Profile With Mortgage Rates Falling, When Should Investors Refinance? Get Dave's Mortgage Point Calculator Analyze Real Estate Like a Pro with “Real Estate by the Numbers” Jump to topic: 00:00 Intro 00:54 Mortgage Rate Update 04:43 Powell Talks, Rates Change  09:19 Bad News if Rates Fall  10:27 What Else Affects Rates 14:04 “Points Options” Improve  15:47 Advice for Investors  18:20 Dave's Take on Future Rates Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and  https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-246 Interested in learning more about today's sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Get Rich Education
515: Unpacking the Myths: How Rent Control Affects Housing Quality and Availability

Get Rich Education

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 19, 2024 42:30


Independent documentary filmmaker and policy analyst at Reason Foundation, Jen Sidorova, joins us to discuss how rent control impacts tenants, landlords and the housing market. Her latest short film project, “Shabbification: The Story of Rent Control”, reflects how rent control has a direct effect on housing quality. Almost half of rentals in NYC are rent-stabilized. We highlight the challenges faced by small property owners and the potential consequences of these regulations on the housing market. Bathtub in your kitchen, anyone? Yes, you read that correctly. In some cases maintenance has been deferred for so long that units have not been updated to code. Learn about the history of rent control and stabilization laws in New York. Resources mentioned: Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/515 You can follow Jen on Instagram @jen_sidorova or check out her writing at reason.org For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREmarketplace.com/Coach Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai   Keith Weinhold  0:01   Welcome to GRE. I discuss the effect that now lower mortgage rates can have how to get a strong return with private lending. Then, for this week's guest, she is a public policy expert with reason.com maker of a new film called Shabbification that spotlights the perils and even horrors of rent control in New York City, and she's a young Russian immigrant that lives in one unit of a Buffalo fourPlex and rents out the other three today on Get Rich Education.    When you want the best real estate and finance info, the modern Internet experience limits your free articles access, and it's replete with paywalls and you've got pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers. Oh, at no other time in history has it been more vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that actually adds no hype value to your life. See, this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point to get the letter. It couldn't be more simple text, GRE to 66866, and when you start the free newsletter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate course, completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream letter, and it wires your mind for wealth. Make sure you read it. Text GRE to 66866, text GRE to 66866. Corey Coates  1:40   you're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is Get Rich Education.   Keith Weinhold  1:56   Welcome to GRE from Ankara,Turkey to Anchorage, Alaska and across 488 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you're listening to Get Rich Education. Today's guest was one of four panelists at a conference that I attended recently. The panel was named innovative solutions to the housing crisis, and her story struck me as interesting, so I invited her to be on the show today, we'll learn that with rent control in New York City, when landlords cannot go inside their own properties and aren't allowed to sell their own properties, seven states have price ceilings on rents, and I'll tell you here At GRE we avoid investing in these places. Listen closely, California, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Maine, Oregon, Minnesota and then DC too. Now sometimes rent control isn't too restrictive. For example, you can raise the rent no more than the rate of inflation plus 3% per year, or the rate of inflation plus 5% per year. And also, it's not all parts of those states where it applies. In fact, you typically do not find the policies statewide in those states that I mentioned, although you do in Oregon, it's statewide in Oregon, and there you can still raise the rent 7% plus the rate of inflation each year. And the good news is that 37 states actually have laws against rent control, specifically saying that you cannot enact it. So not only do 37 states not have it, they just wouldn't even allow a law for it. And there is a strong consensus, like I mentioned here on the show before, among economists that rent control, it reduces the quantity and quality of housing. Today, we'll focus on just how dilapidated rental units become under rent stabilization, which is a lot like rent control in New York City. And we'll discuss New York State and Buffalo. And by the way, I find something amazing. I mean, just say you would ask a question of any citizen of the world, no matter where they live, from Indonesia to Japan, to Bangladesh, to Nigeria to the United States. If you would just ask any citizen of the world, what is the capital of the world? I think that the best answer that you could come up with is New York City. I'm in the United States, and there are people right here in this country that have such little understanding of New York City, and what goes on there, and where it even is, it just amazes me. Maybe it's my own bias, because I'm a geography guy, but now, for example, to get from New York City out to Buffalo, that's an almost seven hour drive to the northwest two different parts of New York State. These are two very different places. We'll get into that shortly. But first in the wider real estate world, I did a little research since first mentioning this to you last week here, where mortgage rates have fallen fully one and a half points from the recent high. All right. Well, with every half point drop in mortgage rates, like I learned from First American, that's my source. With every half point drop in mortgage rates, about 1.1 million additional American households can qualify to buy an entry level home that's defined as the bottom 25% priced here. That's the number, and I checked their math. So with a full point drop in mortgage rates, then 2.2 million more American households can qualify to buy an entry level home. So we could very well have more buyers here soon, but yeah, when all these homeowners are still locked into three and 4% mortgage rates, I don't know that you're gonna have that many more sellers. So with demand exceeding supply, look for more upward pressure on home prices, especially higher values for those entry level homes that make the best rentals. Now, I'm talking about borrowing right there. And what happens when rates go down for mortgages, when they go down for borrowing? Well, rates on savings accounts, they typically fall as well. And this is a scenario that a lot of people expect. Now, most of my real estate activity is a borrower. I'm always here touting the virtues of how leverage builds wealth, and I know that I don't want to be a saver. So for my more liquid funds, I am a lender, and I'm reliably paid a stable 8% interest rate. And I think I've told you before that for years now, I make loans to real estate companies, and they use my funds to rehab properties and for other operations. Yes, an 8% return that I'm getting, and it's almost like getting an 8% yield on a savings account, and it's not expected to fall when interest rates fall. Well, the primary difference is that I often have to wait a few months if I want my full principal return, but not years. So it's not as rigid as a bank CD, but it's not as liquid as an old fashioned bank savings account. So the private real estate company that I've long made loans to works pretty diligently to maintain asset value and assure optimal returns. They'll tell you that they've never missed making a payment for their private money lending programs. And I did a little research, and I found that their fund utilization is 99.6% that really means that they deploy almost all of the capital if you want, you can potentially get a high yield at the same place I do. Sometimes you can get more than 8% or less than an 8% return, depending on what liquidity terms you want and what other terms you like. The company is Freedom Family Investments. They are real estate centric. If you want, go right ahead and learn more. You can do that by texting FAMILY to 66866. Remember, you're the lender, they're the borrower. And again, for most investment types, I want to be the borrower, but for liquid funds, and the fact that the rate of inflation is now down, an 8% return has a higher real yield now than it did two years ago and one year ago. And again, I'm happy to share it with you. It's Freedom Family Investments. If you want to learn more, do it now while it's on your mind and text FAMILY to 66866.    This week, our guest is a public policy expert that's also involved with a film called Shabbification, the story of rent control. Hey, welcome to GRE Jen Sidorova.   Jen Sidorova  9:16   Good to be here. Thank you for having me.    Keith Weinhold  9:18   Yeah and congrats. Shabbification screening in a lot of places, like the Anthem Film Festival at Freedom Fest last month and this month in New York City, tell us about the film.   Jen Sidorova  9:31    Yeah, so in Shabbification, I follow small property owners like myself who are subject to regulation, and most of them are owners of rent stabilized properties in the city of New York. Right, I follow three specific landlords. I They take me to their homes, they take me to their properties, and they show me around, and you can visually see what regulation has done to their property. Yeah, one of these properties was occupied by a tenant. From 1969 up until 2021 wow. And the landlord was never allowed to be in the property, so obviously no repairs were made. And you could see visually that the apartment was like from the 60s. It's like a museum, but not in a good way, because it's really falling apart, right? So it's like, almost like a Tenement Museum, or, you know, another museum New York City, where we they actually preserve those dates. But in this case, a private landlord actually owns that space, and they're having a difficult time. And so what my specific Shabbification With my film is about is a very specific regulation in New York City that happened in 2019 that applied to rent stabilized properties. What it did that is that it won't allow landlords to put them properties on the market even if they rent stabilized tenant vacates them. They're no longer allowed to put their properties on the market at all. And more than that, they are also not allowed to raise rent, even if they do repairs. So sometimes the cost of repairs in New York City for one bedroom unit can be 200,000 and they're only allowed to raise the rent by like roughly $90 a month, and only for 15 years. So it will take them, like, 200 years to recoup their investment. And obviously that doesn't make any sense, so stories like that is what my short film is about. I myself am a small property owner, so it was very special for me to go and kind of tell the story of people like me.   Keith Weinhold  11:36   That's amazing. So rent stabilization something that New York City has a history of. I sort of think of that as a genteel term or rent control. And a lot of times when your rent can't be raised above a certain amount, you get these long term tenants, in some cases, for decades, and in this case, over 50 years, with this particular tenant in New York City and landlords don't have much of any incentive to improve property when rent control is in place, because they know they cannot get a commensurate bump in rent.   Speaker 1  12:11   rent control and rent stabilization are a form of government enforced limit on the rents. And in New York we have two laws that govern that we have more but the most prominent ones are the rent control law of 1969 and the Rent Stabilization Act of 1974 so back in the day, there were issues with availability of affordable housing, and the government was trying to fix it, and that fix was supposed to be temporary. It was supposed to eventually run out once the tenants who were currently in place at the time in late 60s and 70s, once they move out, landlords were able to put those properties back on the market. And eventually, that's kind of what was going on up until 2019 when housing stability and Tenant Protection Act made it so that the landlords could no longer put their rent stabilized properties on the market anymore. So essentially, all rent stabilization became permanent in the state of New York, and actually, in the just a couple of weeks after my film, in April of 2024 we had another law. It's called Good Cause Eviction, and that one regulates every landlord or enterprise who owns more than 11 units. So once you own 11 units or more, you're subject to regulation. You can no longer evict your tenant without a good cause. And there's a bunch of other rules that apply, including the limit on how much rent you can raise year to year. So yeah, that's certainly what's going on. That's roughly the landscape all regulation in New York.   Keith Weinhold  13:44    Yeah, some of this is really punitive, because if rent control comes into a market, that's one thing sometimes that landlords want to do. They want to sell their property, and in some cases, there's a roadblock against that. You know, Jen, I looked up the definition of Shabbification. I just simply googled the term. Urban Dictionary had one of the first hits, and fortunately, it was a G rated definition there in urban dictionary, it was defined as the opposite of gentrification. So therefore with Shabbification, it's where a neighborhood goes through deterioration and despair. So tell us about some more of those bad cases of deterioration, in despair, in Shabbification. Just how bad does it get?   Speaker 1  14:30   Well, one of the properties that we went to was basically from 1910 it was in Chinatown, and we saw was that the bathtub was in the kitchen in that property, oh my gosh. And I believe that was a way for them to do renovations fast and cheap, like 100 years ago. And because that property falls under rent stabilization, and there's obviously limits on how much rent you can charge. So. Landlords of those properties never really make renovations. Sometimes you could see cases like the director of photography, who was in the film, he lives in a rent sabilized property, and in his case, he has a shower unit in his kitchen as well. Instead of a tub, he has a shower unit. And it kind of is, as he described as one of those telephone booths, like, you know, red telephone booths from London, and then kind of just sits in the kitchen, and you obviously cannot really have company or friends visiting or dinner or anything if you have something like that. But those are the setups that we frequently see. Also a lot of things like uneven floors or just, you know, the property, if it's not being taken care of, there might be, like, a hole in the wall, a hole in the ceiling, or the ceiling is falling out. And those are really graphic images. And we do, we do capture them on camera a lot in Shabbification, and that comes from, kind of, my attraction to urban decay. I do enjoy, you know, touring older buildings, or maybe buildings that are preserved as a ruin, maybe like an old prison and or like an old mental asylum. I do do that a lot. It's just a hobby when I travel. So I was always attracted to that esthetic, and that does show in my film as well. I think I love studying the tragedy because I love studying how the hope died, because it's fascinating to me. It's very specific to usually a town or a city, and then just is so telling, and it's such a teaching moment for us as a society to kind of revisit those stories and figure out why did that hope die. And you can see a lot of that in the film.    Keith Weinhold  16:41   it's a great way to scratch one's itch for I suppose, seeing real life haunted houses, if you will, in Jen's film Shabbification here. Well, Jen, we've been talking about the conditions of the tenants. Why don't we talk more about how the landlord is portrayed in Shabbification.    Speaker 1  17:00   since this is the story, primary of the landlords, not so much on the tenant. You know, normally in this sort of films and these sort of documentaries, the story falls in tenant, because the tenant is the one who is seen as likable and sympathetic person, and that's how, and that's usually a more preferable framing angle. But in my story, my story is a story of a merchant class, or like a more, like a war on the merchant class, the war on landlords. Because in the state of New York, no matter how small or large of a landlord you are, whether you own one unit or 1000 by a lot of people in New York State Legislature as a landlord, you're seen as evil. They think you've done something wrong and you have to be punished. So that's the attitude to a lot of landlords, and although they're not that many small property owners, and sometimes we're not seen as a sympathetic I think this is the story that we need to tell, because some of them are like me. I am an immigrant to this country. Once I got an opportunity, I got my first rental property in Buffalo, New York, and right away, I've been renting out three units and lived in one, and I still do own it. Five years later, I live alongside with my tenants. When I go on vacations, they feed my cat, and when they go travel for work, I do take care of their properties. I water their plants, do things like that. So we do live as a small community, and this is something that a lot of people do in Buffalo, because it's a working class city. It's very hard to be able to afford a single family home. Right away, what you can do is acquire one of these properties, either a two unit, three or four unit, because when you're four units less, then you can do an FHA loan, which I did, and you can put minimum amount down, which I did, and then day one, right away, the income from the tenants was paying off my mortgage, right? That's kind of how I can build generational wealth. But not only that, that's how I can start my journey of home ownership and hopefully building generational wealth in the future, as I've said. And I also have my own passion for buildings, and we did a lot of renovations with my family on that property. So there's a lot of heart and soul in that space. And laws like rent control and Good Cause Eviction, they put a cap on people like me and how much we can grow. Because, as I've mentioned, the Good Cause Eviction in New York, it puts a cap on how far and how big people like me can grow. Because once you have 11 units, that's my cap. Once I have 11 units, I have subject to regulation, and somebody like me cannot afford having a tenant who would just never move out. So yeah, I think these laws, they intended to protect the needy. They intended to protect the families, but they do just the opposite. They. Just limit how much we can grow, and they also just make an environment within our properties very toxic, because tenants now basically have more rights than we do.   Keith Weinhold  20:09   Yeah, well, you're really humanizing the plight of the landlord here, Jen with your four Plex over there. For those that aren't familiar with the geography in western New York in Buffalo, sort of the opposite end of the state where New York City is. And, yeah, I mean, landlords are usually portrayed in media is these people that are sort of greedy and bumbling and they won't fix the broken air conditioner. And, you know, it's, it's unusual to me, Jen, that a lot of people tend to resent landlords, whom are often small business owners, but yet they champion other small business owners. And talk about how, you know, small business ownership is the very heart of America. I'm trying to figure out why that is, you know, maybe some tenants that just don't really understand how things work. Just think, well, why should I have to pay this landlord. All I'm doing is sort of renting air or renting space. But you know, one group of tenants that does not seem to resent landlords, Jen, in my experience, that is people that were previously homeowners and are now tenants. They don't seem to resent landlords, and that's probably because that tenant that has experience being a homeowner. They've seen bills for property tax and property insurance and mortgage principal and mortgage interest and maintenance and repairs. I think that's what makes the difference.    Jen Sidorova  21:33   Yeah, definitely. It's almost like, you know, when I lived with my parents, I didn't pay attention to the bills, like election bills or water bills or anything. But once you start living on your own, you now see how it gets deducted from your account, and then it changes you, adds you towards consumption, changes right? You now turn off the light when you leave and do just small things like that. And that's a similar psychology that works with people who previously owned their own homes. I think what the dynamic that's happening here with tenants is there's always going to be more tenants than landlords, so tenants have a lot more political power, and we see a lot of that in New York. We have a lot of tenant groups, tenant unions, who are very hold a little, a lot of political power. And it's one side of it, another side of it is that a lot of these policies do benefit large landlords, in a sense that once the small property owner is no longer able to keep up the property and they just foreclose on it, a larger landlord can always pick it up. And for large landlords, these costs of litigating with the tenant, or the cost of fixing a unit, or even the cost of having somebody live without paying for a few months, these are just the costs of running business, whereas for somebody like me, it's a significant chunk of my income, right? So at the moment, I think it's like 25% of my income is coming from the rentals, so it's significant. So I guess what I'm trying to say is, on the other side of political power, I just legislators who do not want to see private rentals. You know, small property owners having rentals and Damn, motivations are something else. It's almost like, if there's one conspiracy theory that I believe in, is that one you know, is that there is a war on the merchant class among some legislators, especially in the state of New York, who really just do not want to see small property owners providing housing to the community, and they would rather see it in in the hands of larger developers, and that's just the nature of how political process works, sometimes.   Keith Weinhold  23:45   in the broad business world, large institutional corporations, they're often pro regulation for just the reason you talked about it helps put smaller operators out of business that can't bear the expense of dealing with the regulation. But yeah, your film Shabbification, it helps underscore the fact that rent control, it stifles the free market in the process of price discovery. I mean really that price discoveries, that is the process of supply versus demand, with the referee being the price and finding that right rent amount, and amidst this low housing supply we have, it's just really bad timing for any jurisdiction to enact rent control. Existing landlords stop improving property. Builders stop building new property, and it can make landlords want to sell, like we touched on earlier. But also I'd like to talk about making the other case, the case for rent control. When we come back, we're talking with public policy expert Jan siderova, the maker of a film called shabbatation, where we come back. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine at. Ridge lending group  NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties, they help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President changley Ridge personally. Start now, while it's on your mind at Ridge lendinggroup.com that's Ridge lendinggroup.com.   Your bank is getting rich off of you. The national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings if your money isn't making 4% you're losing your hard earned cash to inflation. Let the liquidity fund help you put your money to work. With minimum risk, your cash generates up to an 8% return with compound interest, year in and year out. Instead of earning less than 1% sitting in your bank account, the minimum investment is just 25k you keep getting paid until you decide you want your money back. Their decade plus track record proves they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And I would know, because I'm an investor too, earn 8% hundreds of others are text family, 266, 866, learn more about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund on your journey to financial freedom through passive income. Text, family 266, 866,   Caeli Ridge  26:32   This is Ridge Lending Group's president, Caeli Ridge. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and remember, don't quit your Daydream.   Keith Weinhold  26:52   Welcome back to Get Rich Education. We're talking with a really interesting guest, Jen Sidorova. She's the maker of a new film called Shabbification. This centers on rent control and dilapidated housing conditions. And Jen, you know, I've talked about here on both this episode and another episode a few weeks ago about the deleterious downstream consequences of rent control. It benefits a small group of people in the short term and ends up with deteriorated neighborhoods in a lot of municipalities, but I like to look at things from the other side. What is the case for rent control?   Jen Sidorova  27:27   So I think the the original story behind the rent control in New York City was that in the 70s, it was just really dire situation, kind of what we're going through right now. Right now in New York we have the housing crisis that's the worst in the last 50 years, so basically right around the 70s again. So the current vacancy rate is like 2% and at the same time, we have between 20 to 60,000 rent stabilized rent control units that are vacant because landlords just do not want to put them in more on the market, because talking just in New York City here, yeah, just New York City. And New York City has roughly 1 million of rent stabilized or rent control properties altogether. But yeah, so what is the case for rent control, right? So in my opinion, what is the most problematic saying about rent control or rent stabilization right now, the way the current laws are in New York City is that the property itself is being stabilized or controlled. It's not the person. It doesn't matter how much money you're making. If you're making half a million dollars, you can still live in an apartment that's like 500 $600 a month, right?   Keith Weinhold  28:38   You can have your second lavish vacation home out in the Hamptons, and it doesn't matter.    Jen Sidorova  28:42   Yeah, you can live in Texas for like, nine months out of a year, and come back to New York City for the summer, and then people do that. That's like, not, I'm not making it up. It's a real thing. People are basically hoarding these rent stabilized rent control units, and they just never let them go. And that definitely pushes out young people out of the city. It pushes immigrants out of the city, because people, yeah, all the newcomers. So that's what's going on. So instead of having a property itself being controlled, what could be done? Maybe like a voucher program, maybe like a housing voucher program, but we can only do this if we let the rent control and rent stabilization laws sunset. So once the current tenants move out, that has to be put back on the market, right? So what we could do is the housing voucher program maybe, so that we will always have people in the society that need a little bit of help, but it shouldn't be in such a way that they it's the landlord who is paying for it, right? So if there's a housing voucher, they can live wherever and however that program works in the sense that whoever picks up the rest of the bill, as long as it's not a landlord directly. Yeah, so that's how I see it. And I think just other things that can be done is better zoning regulation that allow more buildings to be built a lot of New York City. Is like a museum, right? We have a lot of historic buildings, a lot of preservation of all the buildings, but we have to reevaluate that, because we don't necessarily have to have the East Village look like a museum if we don't have enough housing, right? So we have to reassess of how much of those policies we still want to hold on to, and then maybe also building codes. Sometimes it's really hard to expand or have more units within the same building. If I have a four unit property and I want to convert it into five units, I am subject to whole different regulation and a whole different bunch of coding, whereas my square footage remains the same. So I think we have to revisit that, because a lot of these new materials that we work with when building are safe right now. So maybe we could let people do more with their properties, and that way we provide more house.   Keith Weinhold  30:50   Yeah. Well, some of this comes down to, how do you get politicians to say no to rent control, which I believe is part of the motivation of your film?    Jen Sidorova  31:01   Right, So the motivation behind myself was that I bought my property in 2019 I went under contract in 2019 and I fully acquired the rights in March of 2020 and between the August of 2019 and 2020 we had a new law passed that was housing stability and Tenant Protection Act 2019 in New York State, and that kind of put a cap on how much I can raise the rent if the tenant remains the same. And at the time when I found that out, I was like, well, that's kind of quirky, but whatever, what can I do? But then a year from that, like in 2021 we had a new mayoral candidate who was a socialist, openly socialist person, and they were advocating for rent control. And at the time, I had an opportunity to go to do a film workshop, and I was thinking, so what is that I really wanted to write film about? And I was this, definitely rent control, because it's relevant for me. It's the story of my people among small property owners, and that's how I did it. And I really want policy action. The idea behind this film, the goal is policy change, right? But this short film is only the beginning of my project, which is exploration of the topic prevent control in the state of New York and everywhere else in the country, and we keep interviewing more people, more experts, and to convert into a larger film, and then hopefully, like a full feature documentary, in order to educate both policymakers and the public about what rent control can do. And eventually, we do hope for policy change in New York, and hopefully, with this film, no more new rent control can happen, or at least when politicians start those bills, they take a look and talk to me and make some changes.    Keith Weinhold  32:52   Well, you're really doing some good work there. I appreciate that. I mean, rent control is analogous to price controls, and we see what happens when there's price controls per se foods like you've seen in other nations in previous decades, and that's how you end up with bread lines, because producers don't want to produce bread when they would have to take a loss and they can't profit on selling that bread. You see a shortage of housing come up just the same, like you do with bread. Well, tell us some more about Buffalo and its market. You had touched on it previously. I think they have lots of older two to four unit buildings there. It sounds like you found one of the four plexes where you could do the owner occupied thing. FHA, three and a half percent down 12 month owner occupancy period. Minimum credit score only needs to be 580 at last check, which is the same way I began with the four Plex building. But yeah, let's learn more about the buffalo housing market. Just a little bit there with rental properties and then the rising tide against Airbnb, like you touched on last month when we met in person.   Jen Sidorova  33:56   Right, so a lot of those properties, a lot of those older homes, were built around the late 1800s beginning or 1900 and that's how they used to build back in the day. Because what would happen is that a large Victorian home with two primarily stories, with two large floors and then maybe an attic and a basement, but one family would live on one floor and another on the second floor. So they were originally built for two homes, but at that time, both families would own that space, right? So there would be co owned by two families. Mine was also an originally a two family home that was converted into a four unit because the previous owners made an addition a lot of young families, that's how they start when they cannot afford a single family home. That's how they start with home ownership and the money that they make for with the rentals. That's how they pay mortgage partially, or maybe that's how they pay the taxes, depending on where you live in the city, sometimes tax burden can alone be very high. So as I've mentioned, we had some mayoral candidates talking about rent control, but recently we started having Airbnbs being regulated in Buffalo. And so there's a few districts in the city where Airbnb is regulated, and my district does not fall into that, and I actually am on four of my units. One is occupied by me. Two are long term tenants, and one which is the newest and the nicest one. I decided to make Airbnb interesting because I did not want to risk, you know, giving it to a long term tenant, because it's just such a nice unit. It's a lot of investment that went in there, so I didn't want it to be provided by somebody who would never leave, because the, you know, environment is just so toxic. You just don't want to take chances, unless you like, really believe in the time. But I don't know people are out here. So I decided to keep it Airbnb. And so because some of the other parts of the city are regulated, and mine is not. I am the beneficiary of that regulation because I get a lot, all of those clients, right, all those Airbnb client so in that sense, funny enough, I am benefiting from some parts of the city being regulated because my my part is not. So all the clients go to me. I do have an Airbnb right now, but we're definitely at the risk of all of the city being regulated. And I think a lot of people complain, right? People who lived in the city for a long time, allegedly, they started complaining to the city council about not recognizing their neighborhood because of Airbnb. But I think what legislators need to understand is that my generation, millennials and Gen Z. That's how we live our lives. We share our assets, right? It's like a big millennial and Gen Z thing that the Airbnb itself is a millennial thing, that this is just will be recognized, that assets like cars and houses, they can be shared, you don't have to have that many of them, even from the unit in the unit that I live in. When I I went out on a trip to Long Island last week, and I airbnbied my own unit. And so that's just how it is. That's just a little lifestyle. And when I see new people who stay in Airbnb on my street, it doesn't bother me. I kind of enjoy a little bit of a variety. But, you know, sometimes it's almost like a culture clash or a generational shift when it comes to thinking about properties and housing ownership. Yeah, that's just my experience.   Keith Weinhold  37:33   Younger generations embrace the sharing economy, and that is quite the mixed use building that you have there with your four Plex in Buffalo, you've got one unit that's a primary residence, a second unit that's a short term rental, and then two long term rental units. There's some diversification of income and utility, for sure. Well, Jen, tell us more about how our audience can connect with you, and especially how they can watch Shabbification.   Jen Sidorova  38:00   So Shabbification, right now is in the film festival circuit, so it's not available to watch yet. Although, if anyone reaches out directly to me through Instagram, my handle is @Jen_Sidorova, which is my first underscore, my last name, anyone can just reach out directly to me and I will send them a screener, and they can watch the full film. And also on my Instagram page, I do put a lot of like other content about buildings, and a lot of like videos so and some, you know, B roll footage that we haven't used in the film, but you can watch it in my Instagram. So yeah, definitely check it out. I also do write for Reason Foundation, and you can find it on my profile, my policy writing work. You can find it at reason.com and it's just under my name, pretty much Instagram and reason website.   Keith Weinhold  38:51   Jen, thanks so much for your Shabbification project. I really think it's going to help people see an important part of American society in a different light. It's been great having you here on the show.   Jen Sidorova  39:02   Thank you so much.   Keith Weinhold  39:09   I talked to Jen some more outside of our interview. Her buffalo four Plex has a high flying 1.04% rent to price ratio. I crunched it out that is super strong for a four unit building, but it is older, and like she said in the interview, she did make some substantial renovation to it, yeah, rent control is a bad plan. You know, on an episode a few weeks ago, I mentioned to you about last month's White House proposal for a sort of rent control light, that was such a bad plan. I told you that it only applies to property owners of 50 plus units, and rent increases were capped at 5% a year. Well, I dug into that release from the White House briefing room, and it's almost like they know it won't work, because. Oh my gosh, this is almost humorous. Economists and any long term thinkers will tell you that rent control doesn't work because you won't get any new builds. Well, the White House release Wood said it won't apply to new builds. It's almost like someone told them, like, hey, this won't work for that reason. So then they wrote that sentence in there, which just undermines so much of it. And economists will also tell you that what doesn't work because owners don't want to improve property well, yet, the White House release actually said it would not apply to substantially renovated property. I mean, my gosh, with these carve outs and all the other caveats that are in it that I described a few weeks ago, this White House rent control planet has no shot of going anywhere. It is lip service virtue signaling, and also would not get past a divided Congress. Really bad plan. In fact, how doomed to failure is wide scale rent control. Well, don't worry, the federal government hasn't regulated rent on private buildings since World War Two. Yeah, it's been 80 years, and it took World War Two scale conditions to bring it. Thanks again to today's guest, Jen Sidorova, with reason.com. Again, like I mentioned earlier, if you want to deploy some of your more liquid funds for a potential 8% return at the same place where I've been getting an 8% return for years, you can make a loan to a long standing real estate company for their property rehabs and other operations. This might really help you out. You can learn more by texting FAMILY to 66866, lots of great shows coming up here at GRE to actionably build your Real Estate Wealth until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your daydream.   Unknown Speaker  41:53   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively.   Keith Weinhold  42:21   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building, GetRichEducation.com

On The Market
220: Top Lenders Share “Good News” for Mortgage Rates + Trending Investor Loans

On The Market

Play Episode Listen Later May 27, 2024 40:09


We may be close to some serious mortgage rate relief, according to today's panel of top lenders. With interest rates finally starting to slide after cooling inflation and lackluster job growth, investors are gaining hope that we could see more affordable mortgage rates resurface after a very harsh past two years. So, what could come next? Stick around because we've got mortgage rate predictions and the best investor loans to look for coming up in this episode! Caeli Ridge, Krystle, and Kenny Simpson, our expert investor-lenders, are back on the show to give their take on the commercial and residential mortgage space. All are feeling a bit more optimistic as we see rates finally trend into the six-percent range for primary residence homebuyers, with rates up another percent or so for investors. But with today's mortgage rates still relatively high, which loans should investors use? From DSCR loans (debt service coverage ratio) to HELOCs (home equity line of credit), construction loans, and more, we'll get into each of these loan products and share which ones investors are taking advantage of today. Plus, if you're struggling to find cash flow in today's tough housing market, our lenders offer some simple but significant solutions to boost your ROI and help you build your portfolio. Do you have an adjustable-rate mortgage? If so, you MUST heed our commercial lender's words, as you could get a surprise increase in your monthly mortgage very soon. In This Episode We Cover Top lenders' mortgage rate predictions and updates on today's rates Why mortgage rates haven't fallen faster and why there's hope on the horizon Trending loan products investors are using to build their real estate portfolios even with high rates Why commercial lenders are getting cautious and starting to deny this one type of loan ADU (accessory dwelling unit) lending updates and why it could be easier to get ADU funding soon How to boost your cash flow and maximize your ROI WITHOUT buying more properties And So Much More! Links from the Show Find an Agent Find a Lender BiggerPockets Forums BiggerPockets Agent BiggerPockets Bootcamps Join BiggerPockets for FREE On The Market Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Connect with Other Investors in the “On The Market” Forums Subscribe to The “On The Market” YouTube Channel Dave's BiggerPockets Profile Dave's Instagram Property Manager Finder On The Market Podcast 185 - Top Lenders on Mortgage Rate Predictions + Loans You've NEVER Heard Of w/Caeli Ridge and Krystle and Kenny Simpson BiggerPockets Daily Podcast 1263 - Investors: Stop Worrying About Interest Rates—Here's Why Right Now Is the Time to Buy On The Market Podcast 184 - Fannie Mae's Mortgage Rate “Range” to Expect in 2024 and 2025   Connect with Caeli : Caeli's BiggerPockets Profile Caeli's Instagram Caeli's LinkedIn  Caeli's Website   Connect with Krystle and Kenny: Kenny's BiggerPockets Profile Krystle's Instagram  Kenny's Instagram  Krystle's LinkedIn Kenny's LinkedIn  Kenny's X/Twitter The Simpson Team's Website Jump to topic: (00:00) Intro (01:07) Mortgage Rate Predictions + Update  (08:16) Trending Loan Products  (11:29) Commercial Lenders Get Cautious… (19:41) Everyone's Building ADUs! (26:29) Advice for 2024 Investors  (33:07) Work with a Solid Lender Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-220 Interested in learning more about today's sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Get Rich Education
502: The BRRRR Investing Strategy: Your Path to Infinite Returns

Get Rich Education

Play Episode Listen Later May 20, 2024 39:30


You can get financially free twice as fast with the BRRRR Strategy instead of buy-and-hold. But it's less passive. BRRRR stands for: Buy, Rehabilitate, Rent, Refinance, and Repeat.  You can get an infinite return this way, by generating yield with none of your own money left in the deal. Learn how to obtain BRRRR financing from Caeli Ridge, President of Ridge Lending Group. The LTVs are 70%, 75%, or 80% depending on the property and financing type. RidgeLendingGroup.com specializes in helping investors buy income property. Resources mentioned: For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  Top Properties & Providers: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREmarketplace.com/Coach Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Keith's personal Instagram: @keithweinhold   Complete episode transcript:   Keith Weinhold (00:00:00) - Welcome to GRE. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. The real estate BRRRR strategy is a shortcut to growing your wealth. But it's less passive than buy and hold with a property manager. Learn what is the Burr strategy and then about some of its pros and cons, mistakes you must avoid and financing programs available, and how it can generate infinite returns for you today and get rich. Education.   Robert Syslo (00:00:28) - Since 2014, the powerful get Rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate, investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show host Keith Reinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad Advisors, and delivers a new show every week. Since 2014, there's been millions of listeners downloads and 188 world nations. He has A-list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get Rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener.   Robert Syslo (00:01:02) - Phone apps build wealth on the go with the get Rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get Rich education podcast or visit get Rich education.com.   Corey Coates (00:01:13) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold (00:01:30) - Welcome from Bridgeport, Connecticut, to Bridgeport, Texas, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you're listening to get Rich education. Let's Do Good in the world and abolish the term slumlord profiting at the same time by providing housing to others. It's clean, safe, affordable and functional. This is where, you know, on this show, we often tell you how to become financially free through real estate investing in the next 5 to 10 years without having to be a landlord or flipper. We're going to talk about how to shorten that timeline in a moment, but I have a couple resources to share with you. First, one, late breaking development at GRI marketplace that's been popular is in Florida with new builds, brand new construction for plex's duplexes and single family rentals with points paid a 4.25% mortgage rate.   Keith Weinhold (00:02:28) - Yes, 4.25%. You can pay fewer points and still get a 4.75% rate. Also, some good low interest rate deals for foreign nationals. Go ahead and connect with a great investment coach and learn about those at great marketplace.com. For a 4.25% mortgage rate. If you're a Spanish speaker or have Spanish speaking friends, check out get Rich education.com/espanol to see my free video course on how real estate pays five ways in Spanish. It's pretty interesting how our team here has applied AI to show me speak it in Spanish. Again, you can see that at get Rich education. Com slash espanol. Now the BR real estate investing strategy is popular because it can reduce your out-of-pocket expense for property substantially. Let's break it down here. That is the b are are are are. There are four hours after the B which stands for the first B is buy. You buy a distressed property that needs to be fixed up. Then the R's stand for rehab, then rent, then refinance at that higher value, then repeat. More of you have been buying BR property through GRE marketplace.   Keith Weinhold (00:03:52) - Yes, we help you find not just buy and hold properties here, but properties optimized for the BR as well. There are properties that need some work and they are not turnkey, not ready to go with little or no money. In less than three years, you can have a portfolio of 10 to 20 properties with the BR strategy. That's a shortcut, but that does take some work. It's less passive. You're buying distressed property that needs to be fixed up, and you have to be sure that the contractor is getting the work done on time, on budget, and of adequate quality standards. And vetting contractors and dealing with contractors is not easy. I'm going to have a few tips to help you deal with that today, but if you get it dialed in, BR lets you pursue an infinite return strategy where you buy property at a low price, renovated, get it rented, and then refinance it at the higher value. And at times you can get all of your invested cash out on that refinance.   Keith Weinhold (00:05:04) - Well, because a return on investment formula is simply your dollars returned divided by the cash that you have invested in the deal. Well, therefore, if you have no money left in the deal anymore, your return is infinite. Listen carefully. If our guest doesn't do it, then what I'll do is introduce an example here in our conversation for you to get you to help understand the BR. And if this is new to you, this will stretch your thinking somewhat. And then after our break, I'm going to come back and we'll discuss more about any changes to conventional loans for buy and hold investment property. And there's one place that's created more financial freedom through real estate than any other lender in the entire nation. It's time for a big welcome back to their leader, Charlie Rich.   Caeli Ridge (00:06:02) - Hey, Keith. Thank you for having me. It's always a pleasure to be here.   Keith Weinhold (00:06:05) - Well, you know who she is by now. She leads Ridge Lending Group. They're an investor centric lender, and she does such a good, concise job of explaining what real estate investors need to know in optimizing your loan positions.   Keith Weinhold (00:06:18) - And that's why she's here with us again. And, Charlie, rather than just learn about conventional buy and hold loans or refinance loans like we've covered in the past, let's talk about lending for the BR real estate investing method. BR is a method for buying distressed property at a discount. So not turnkey, not fixed up property. Here in BR stands for buy, rehab, rent, refinance and repeat. Now for these loans. Is the lender looking more I guess Charlie maybe we should start with are they looking at the property strength or more at the borrower strength for BR loans?   Caeli Ridge (00:06:54) - Well, first of all, I would say that BR is one of my favorite strategies for real estate investors, especially if they're getting into diversifying their portfolio. I think BR is a very lucrative way to achieve the returns that people are after, not only in appreciation but also in cash flow. You can get some really great leverage in these ROI and ends up being better if you find the right properties. So I'm a big fan of the BR, but to your question, Keith, it depends on what product they're going to elicit for the end loan, for that refinance loan, if we're talking about a conventional loan, Fannie, Freddie and the qualifications are still about the individual and their debt to income ratios, etc. if we're going to put this on a debt service coverage ratio, which it can apply to both, or can, I mean, the strategy does not obligate them to one or the other.   Caeli Ridge (00:07:39) - So we can go conventional where it's still going to be about the individual. Or we can look at more of a debt service coverage ratio, where it's about the income of the property in relation to the mortgage payment.   Keith Weinhold (00:07:48) - And before we go on, of course, identifying a deal is a key here in the BR strategy. Is there any guidance you'd give with identification of that property. Because you might know more from the lender perspective on what's going to be lendable.   Caeli Ridge (00:08:03) - Well, as long as it's habitable, we can lend on it. I would say that you really want to pay close attention to a couple of things. From a lender's perspective, the ARV, right? The after rehab after repair value is the linchpin to all of this. And if you're out there getting your comps from whatever sources, the agent or Zillow or Redfin or whatever it is, the more data that you can gather, the better. But just keep in mind that the ones and zeros that you're probably gaining access to don't necessarily have the components that show all the rehab work that you're putting into it.   Caeli Ridge (00:08:34) - So if you're getting a value of a property like kind property in the area or vicinity that the property is located, it's not always going to attest to what extras you put in, whether it be the hardwoods or square footage or whatever it may be. Just keep in mind that you may not be on point there, and real estate agents, I would want you to have or be working with one that really understands the BR method, aka investor models, to make sure that you don't get caught in a scenario where you're expecting a value of x that comes in at Y, that can be very devastating to the BR methodology, especially for new investors.   Keith Weinhold (00:09:09) - It was more about coming up with the ARV because with a conventional loan on a conforming property, that value that you're lending against is typically the appraisal.   Caeli Ridge (00:09:21) - Correct. And the appraisal is going to take into consideration those rehab pieces. But it's not dollar for dollar. And while I don't know that we want to go down the appraisal rabbit hole, I will tell you that if you've got $50,000 of rehab into the property, that doesn't necessarily mean you're going to get a full 50,000 in extra value.   Caeli Ridge (00:09:38) - A lot of it has to do with what you paid for it. Like Keith, you said at the top of the podcast here, distressed property. A lot of times when people are getting into BR, they're finding under market value property to begin with, that's already worth more. They're putting in some real value adds, maybe cosmetic, maybe a little bit more, and then expecting quite a bit more in value. So there's definitely a science to it. But just make sure that for all intents and purposes, you're gathering as much data as you can. And the agent, if you're using a real estate agent to help with MLS listings, etc., that they have some basis of background within this, this particular philosophy.   Keith Weinhold (00:10:12) - Okay, so we are projecting an RV in after repair value here, and then we need to lend against a percentage of a certain value. So clearly since in this case the property is distressed, well then if the property is the lender's collateral and that collateral is a little, you know, why don't we call it damaged, if you will? Well, then I'm going to speculate that is that lender probably not going to give you as favorable loan terms as they would on a conforming property.   Keith Weinhold (00:10:39) - So tell us more about how those bur loan terms look.   Caeli Ridge (00:10:42) - So you might be surprised. Again, as long as the property is habitable the LTV is going to be the same. The value of the property. It is probably what you're going to notice more than what the lending side is going to allow for in the loan to value. So on a single family residence, if it's habitable, we're going to give the individual up to 75% of that ARV. Now, I don't know if we're ready to go down this road. I think we should talk about it at some point. The ARV and how we want to maximize and not leave any money on the table. We want to discuss the purchase price and the acquisition. I think we'll come to that. But to answer your question, habitable 75% single family or 70% on a 2 to 4 unit is going to be the maximum loan to value using the appraisal. When we talk about a cash out refinance of an investment property, which may be different if we get into a rate and term refinance as a purpose of Bur, which will probably touch on as well.   Keith Weinhold (00:11:36) - What I think for the listener benefit here, maybe it's good to jump into an example if you want to apply some real numbers here to a bird deal, and then let's walk through that with the financing and more.   Caeli Ridge (00:11:48) - Let's start with cash out, because it is different than a rate and term. So cash out simply to clarify means that the individual is going to get cash in hand. We are not simply paying off an existing hard money loan. That is a rate and term refinance. So we want to start with cash out where the cash to acquire the property was the individual sourced and seasoned funds. And let's assume that the scenario looks like this. They paid $100,000 for the property. And then there's $50,000 in renovation with the expectation. Or let's just say that we get an appraisal for 200,000. So at 200,000 and it's a single family residence, 75% of that is 150,000. Okay. So that pretty much covers their total acquisition costs. But then we've got a recommendation.   Keith Weinhold (00:12:28) - Cost is quite.   Caeli Ridge (00:12:29) - Covered. But we have to account for closing costs tax and insurance.   Caeli Ridge (00:12:31) - Let's just make it around ten grand. So the individual is going to end up with 140,000 from their 150 total acquisition cost. If you divide those two numbers, you're probably going to be at what? So 140 divided by 150,000. Yeah, 93% overall leverage. You've got ten grand skin in the game. And when you look at it from that perspective, 93% over all loan to value or leverage of this property is very, very high. If you can get a deal to work like that, you're doing very well.   Keith Weinhold (00:12:59) - And you can see why people like this and why people are attracted to this. So go ahead and tell us more about this. Because really, when we talk about lending for a bigger property, we're probably talking about two different loans, right? We're talking about the purchase price upfront and then the refinancing later on.   Caeli Ridge (00:13:17) - Right. So let's going back to my example. If you paid cash for the property, if that 150,000 was your sourced in season funds. And if you want Keith tell me later and I'll go into what source and season it is.   Caeli Ridge (00:13:28) - But you have 150,000 in on this property. The key to getting up to the maximum of 150 back. Or in our example, you ended up with 140 back because we accounted for ten grand. And in closing, cost is to make sure this is wildly important. And a lot of people get this wrong the first time they go down the Burr road. Make sure both the purchase price and the acquisition costs are listed on your final CD, aka Closing Disclosure. A closing disclosure comes to you at closing, where it's a document, a form that illustrates all of the line item pluses and minuses of the buyer and the seller and what everybody netted at the end. The CD must have the total 150 listed on there, and just one number is fine. It can be broken up into two numbers, whatever. But as long as both numbers are listed on the CD, you as the borrower, our client, her guidelines are eligible to get up to that much back. So the guideline states that the individual cash in hand cannot exceed a maximum of what the total acquisition costs listed on that CD is.   Caeli Ridge (00:14:28) - So what the common mistake is, let's just keep using our 100,000 purchase in our $50,000 renovation. The common mistake that people make is, is that they pay the 100,000, the seller is made whole. And then the day after closing, they are officially now the owner of this property. They send the 50,000 out to the contractor. Seems obvious, right? Well, in doing it that way, you've left 50,000 on the table and now you're going to have to wait 12 months per new guideline to have 12 months of ownership, seasoned ownership for Fannie Freddie to get the total 150. So make sure that the total 150 is on that CD. And the way to do this, just one more little detail. You want to be working with an escrow company that provides something called an escrow hold back. Because a lot of times when I give this advice, people say, well, I don't really want to release $50,000 to the contractor before they even started any of the work, right? That makes sense to me.   Caeli Ridge (00:15:16) - And most escrow companies do this in escrow. Hold back says that the hundred grand goes to the seller. The 50,000 is earmarked for the general contract, you've gotten your bids, etc., but the escrow company will then deliver the 50,000 upon your approval as draws to the contractor as work is being completed. And that kind of absolves that extra layer of risk. But now you've done the appropriate thing for the financing to get maximize your cash out, and you're not leaving yourself in a weird position to frontload 50 grand before you know they've even started on whatever repairs there are.   Keith Weinhold (00:15:49) - Yes. How much motivation does every contractor have if they've already got their 50 K for 50 K worth of work before they do their work? And it works this way a lot in the contracting world, where progress payments are made intermittently as the contractor performs their work. So tell us more about what we need to know here. Clearly, especially when it comes to the Bir and loans, because you just gave us a great mistake to avoid there.   Caeli Ridge (00:16:13) - Kind of keeping on that theme. And then let's talk about a rate and term refinance. You know, some of the pushback that I'll get when I have these conversations. Well, you get your bids. Okay. We'll start talking about the 50,000 renovation per hour example. And you probably get a low and a high and middle. Maybe you go with the middle. It's been my experience personally and just through conversations that the bid is 50,000. If you don't have the upfront conversation to say, I'm not going to pay a cent over the 50,000 and or you negotiate to say, okay, what is our variance here? Because a lot of times the contractor is not going to be pigeonholed to 50,000. They're going back and say, no, I'm not going to sign anything that says that it will not exceed 50,000. There are costs and things that are out of my control, blah, blah, blah. Then coming up with, okay, fine, 55,000, 50, 2000, whatever that margin might be, including that in there and then having the conversation that says, okay, fine, because you don't want to leave that money on the table.   Caeli Ridge (00:17:03) - So let me take a step back. 50,000 becomes 55,000. And if you didn't have it on the CD, that $5,000 is not eligible to get back. So if you increase the amount that's on that CD, per the conversation with your contractor, make sure one of two things that if it isn't spent, that it's coming back to you and assuming if it is, then everybody is on the same page and it's just going to be part of the expense and part of what you have potential to get back. So just food for thought there. Then moving into the rate and term refinance. Now this is something totally different. This means that you went out and got a hard money lump, some kind of a private bridge loan, which by the way, Ridge does. We have bridge loans that can help fund the purchase and the renovation. We can talk about that if you like. But if you went out and got a hard money loan, this is no longer a cash out refinance unless the value is so high that based on a 75% LTV for cash out, that there's enough money on the table that you don't want to wait the 12 months.   Caeli Ridge (00:18:00) - I'm going to pause on that for a second and just say that the numbers work for a rate and term refinance, where we have an existing loan. Let's say you've got a hard money loan for 150,000. A rate and term refinance lets us go to 80% loan to value on a single family, 75 on a 2 to 4. If you recall a minute ago it was 75 and 70. That's cash out. Refinance rate and term refinance rules when you're not getting any money in hand, were simply paying off existing liens plus closing costs. They increase the LTV allowances. So 75 2 to 480% on a single family residence. So if we can go 80% on the 200,000, what is that one? I can't do mental math, Keith. So 80% of 200,000 is 160. So in that case think about this. So let's just keep going back to our example. You've got 150 into it. We've got 10,000 of closing costs okay. 150 is a hard money loan that we have to pay off. And the 10,000 is what the new refinance closing costs are going to be.   Caeli Ridge (00:19:00) - The value came in at 200,000. 80% of that is 160,000. That's no skin in the game. You have completely covered the hard money loan paid for the closing costs. I mean, you can't get better than that. That's 100% leverage, right? You're not getting cash back. Now let's take that and say that the value came in at 250. And that's a lot of money. In that case, you may want to wait for the 12 months to get that cash back, because you're going to be limited if you use leverage to acquire the property versus your own cash, that's when you're going to have to wait that 12 months. Or if you're cash acquisition, the numbers work out where you'd get an exponentially more amount than what you put into it. You may want to wait there, too. It really just depends on what that RV is going to be. That's why it's the linchpin that'll make you decide whether you're going to wait the 12 months, or if you're ready to rock in in the immediate terms with a rate and term refi.   Caeli Ridge (00:19:53) - No seasoning. If you're not getting cash back, I don't care. We can do it immediately or a cash out refinance. As long as you're not getting more back than what you paid for it. And we can show that the dollars to acquire all in the CD and they came from, you know, seasoning.   Keith Weinhold (00:20:07) - All right. So it's the BR strategy with the cash out refinance and then the burr strategy with the rate and term terms there, if you will. Is there anything else that we need to know about either one of those.   Caeli Ridge (00:20:19) - Really a lot of people always want to say what are the rate differences? And I would say that, you know, overall they're going to be roughly the same when we start talking about those LP's. Again, Keith, low level price adjustments there, pluses and minuses that have to do with risk. A cash out is a higher risk than a rate and term, a rate and term at 80% versus a cash out at 75% might offset that. So relatively speaking, they're probably going to be within an eighth to a quarter percentage point if all the other variables are equal.   Keith Weinhold (00:20:44) - Now, clearly, I think of a hard money loan is something that allows. You to put both the purchase price of a property and the projected rehab cost, and roll those all into the loan at closing. That's what I think of as a hard money loan. Is there any difference between a hard money loan and the other things that you're describing to us?   Caeli Ridge (00:21:04) - Not really. I mean, it's probably a cat of a different name, right? I mean, a hard money loan, a private money loan, a portfolio loan, a bridge loan. I mean, you could use the same thing, depending on the context of the sentence, to mean the same thing, maybe something different. You're probably right in this context. It's going to be the same, I think.   Keith Weinhold (00:21:21) - Well, I want to talk to you more about conventional loans and any mortgage industry trends that have been taking place lately. But before we do, do you have any last thing to tell us about the Burr strategy, where really someone can accumulate maybe 10 or 20 properties in just three years with little or no money, but more work?   Caeli Ridge (00:21:39) - Yeah, a little bit more work.   Caeli Ridge (00:21:40) - I would say get to know your market, have your team. That contractor. Man, I think you alluded to this. I think that that's the piece that most people struggle with is finding the right contractor for one of the things that tends to work well, if you have established a relationship, is kind of getting in with some kind of a JV with the contractor, right? They've got skin in the game. Maybe if your numbers work out, they get a 5% bonus on the end, whatever. Just to kind of not keep them honest but keep them honest, if you know what I mean. So making sure you've got a good contractor that you can trust if you're going to be doing this out of state from where you live, even more so, doubly so you really want to have the right team. And that includes the general contractor, the escrow company, your lender. Everybody's got to kind of be on the same page if you're going to continue to do this as a rinse and repeat.   Caeli Ridge (00:22:23) - And then finally I would say bring it to Ridge. Let's just make sure if you're new to doing this, I want to make sure you're not leaving that money on the table, that we're structuring it appropriately so that we're maximizing the loan to value, we're maximizing your dollar, and that you're not leaving money or leaving money for some period of time longer than what you would have wanted to, because this is a rinse and repeat, right? If you don't do it right the first time, you could be stuck tying up 30 grand for 12 months that you would have otherwise been able to capitalize on. If we looked at it in advance of you pulling a trigger.   Keith Weinhold (00:22:52) - Yeah, that's correct. In fact, that last R in the BR strategy is to repeat it. And yet, to your point about contractors, I like to think about what contractor motivations are and what my motivations are. And in times I have incentivized contractors with giving them a 5% bonus if they finish things ahead of schedule or a 5% penalty if they finish things behind schedule and putting that in the contract as well.   Keith Weinhold (00:23:14) - You're listening to get versus a case. We're talking with Ridge Landing President Charlie Ridge about getting loans for the BR strategy more when we come back. I'm your host, Keith Windhoek. Role. Under this specific expert with income property, you need. Ridge lending Group Nmls 42056. In gray history from beginners to veterans, they provided our listeners with more mortgages than anyone. It's where I get my own loans for single family rentals up to four Plex's. Start your prequalification and chat with President Charlie Ridge personally. They'll even customize a plan tailored to you for growing your portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending group.com Ridge lending group.com. You know, I'll just tell you, for the most passive part of my real estate investing, personally, I put my own dollars with Freedom Family Investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in returns, or better than a bank savings account, up to 12%. Their minimums are as low as 25 K. You don't even need to be accredited for some of them. It's all backed by real estate and that kind of love.   Keith Weinhold (00:24:29) - How the tax benefit of doing this can offset capital gains and your W-2 jobs income. And they've always given me exactly their stated return paid on time. So it's steady income, no surprises while I'm sleeping or just doing the things I love. For a little insider tip, I've invested in their power fund to get going on that text family to 66866. Oh, and this isn't a solicitation. If you want to invest where I do, just go ahead and text family to six, 686, six.   Speaker 5 (00:25:06) - This is our Rich dad, Poor dad author Robert Kiyosaki. Listen to get Rich education with Keith Wayne. All scripture data.   Keith Weinhold (00:25:25) - Hey. Welcome back. You're inside. Episode 502 of gray. I'm your host, Keith. Y'know, we're talking with the president of Ridge Lending Group, Charlie Ridge. She talked to us before the break about her financing strategies and the things that you need to keep in mind in order to optimize your returns there. It's only now back here on the conventional side, we talk more about conforming loans for properties that are already fixed up.   Keith Weinhold (00:25:48) - Or maybe people call those turnkey. What about some of those hurdles that investors often have in there? For example, I know that the DTI one exceeding their debt to income ratio threshold when they try to qualify is sometimes a problem. So can you talk to us about some strategies with that? For example, sometimes a person might have a $500 a month car payment, but they only have four or more payments to make for their $2,000 principal balance. And it just makes more sense to pay that off. And then that drops off the DTI calculation. Are there any other thoughts you have with regard to that?   Caeli Ridge (00:26:18) - There's so many in this. I mean, we probably have our own episode for all different ways on debt to income ratio and to move that needle. Just to go back to your example, just FYI, if the car loan is financed, not leased, and there are ten months or left reporting on the credit report automatically per guideline we had, we can exclude that if it was at least with ten months or less, we have to keep it in the ratio.   Caeli Ridge (00:26:39) - But if it's a finance car, ten months are left are showing on the report. It's automatically reduced from the liability section of DTI. The other things that we're to look at just obvious things. Can we gross up any kind of income. Right. Are there bonuses or commissions or Social Security or veterans benefits or whatever that allow us to gross those up, making sure that we've got all of the applicable income that they gather? Sometimes people will forget to say, oh, I get this. You know, child support or alimony or whatever it may be that I didn't think to disclose. We want to make sure that we have that in there. And then we talk about liabilities we want to look at here's kind of a good one. Student loans let's say that either cosigned or you have your own student loans. Fannie and Freddie have different. And maybe they're in deferment. Okay. So when we pull the credit it shows zero as the monthly payment. While Fannie and Freddie have different rules about what we have to hit them for.   Caeli Ridge (00:27:25) - And I could be getting these backwards, but I think that Fannie is 1% of the outstanding balance, whereas Freddie is a half a percent. So depending on some other variables, we may elect to say, okay, DTI is really tight, we're going to take this and make this one of Freddie, assuming that they fit all the other boxes so that we're only having to hit them for that half a percent. Otherwise we look at maybe paying off revolving debt, get those payments down if they're small enough, maybe there's a $3,000 balance that has a $300 payment that's really screwing things up, and they can afford to pay that off. So certainly we can look at those kinds of things, adding in a co-borrower, putting more money down, buying the interest rate down, maybe finding slightly cheaper insurance, right. At least for the purpose of the loan. And then if you wanted to get higher insurance or lower deductibles or higher deductibles later, you could certainly do that. So there's so many different variables that we can look at to really it's not a one size fits all.   Caeli Ridge (00:28:13) - And DTI is kind of a slippery slope. And there's lots of different ways in which we can get that down into check. And if it doesn't happen today, we can help them plant the seeds for what to do tomorrow and making sure that we get them there.   Keith Weinhold (00:28:24) - Wow, that was fantastic. I hope you, the listener, are listening closely because Charlie just gave so much packed, nutrient dense information about what you can do with your DTI. And for starters, I think a lot of people think about reducing their debt to improve their DTI. But is all your income being credited as well? Hopefully you caught that part which said that. But when it does come to reducing the debt portion, of course student loans have very much been in the news with all these plans for forgiveness. Is that impacting DTI substantially?   Caeli Ridge (00:28:53) - If they had the right documentation? Sure. Yeah. If they're on there and we have the right documentation that shows that they are forgiven, but they just haven't caught up with the system, then absolutely.   Caeli Ridge (00:29:00) - Otherwise, if they don't have the supporting doc, the letter that says and it's on the credit report, we're going to have to hit them for it, whether there's a payment there or a zero deferred. And then we have to figure out the 5.5 or the 1%. It'll have to be in there. Just depends on what they can deliver in terms of that forgiveness in paper trail.   Keith Weinhold (00:29:18) - You do with mortgages every day in there. That's what you specialize in for investors. Are there any just overall mortgage industry trends that really specifically impact real estate investors that have occurred? Or amid.   Caeli Ridge (00:29:31) - The rates? Everything is going to come back to the rates. As much as I impress upon people, it really shouldn't be about the rate. And I understand the psychology. Listen. But if they're not doing the math, they're really doing themselves and their future investment a disservice. The shelf life, you guys of an investment property mortgage is five years. Whatever the rates are today, you're not going to have that interest rate almost certainly in 5 to 7 years.   Caeli Ridge (00:29:54) - So kind of looking down the forecast of where rates we think they're going to go, the appreciation of the property, harvesting equity, pulling cash out. Keep those things in mind when you fixate on the interest rates. I would say that that's usually what it's top of people's minds. The most recent inflationary data came out. It was hotter than we expected. However, shortly thereafter, if you're watching closely the unemployment rate and the jobs report, I think it offered 175,000 new jobs and the projection was to something. So that's good news. And listen, you guys, you can't have it both ways. We're in a hot economy. I guess it depends on who you're talking to and who you're asking. I understand, but for all intents and purposes we've got inflation is is down. It's not down where the Fed's wanted that 2%. The unemployment rate is very, very low. So in that regard we're doing very well. So interest rates are going to be higher. Unfortunately it balances this way. The worse the economy does the better the interest rates do.   Caeli Ridge (00:30:48) - Finding that equal balance I think is the key. And don't ask me, I'm not going to try and predict how to do that. But do your mouth be prepared for refinancing when it comes. Sitting on the fence is usually not going to be to your advantage if you're waiting for interest rates to come down, and that coupled with house values, come down a little bit too. And you may have played yourself out of the refinance anyway for the purposes that you wanted to pull cash out. So just be educated. Call us. We can kind of walk you through some of that stuff. Interest rates, I think, are going to be higher for longer unless we see some real significant data trends, because there's a lag. And what we get from the Fed's and I think they try to put that in there, but who knows what's going to happen. What are they going to see us again June, July. We'll see what happens. If jobs reports keep being light, then maybe we start to see a little bit more reprieve in the interest rates.   Caeli Ridge (00:31:32) - But we're still we're what, seven and a quarter, seven and a half for investment property I think in most cases. So if that's too high to cash flow, find a short term rental. Find a mid term rental. There's other ways in which to accomplish your variety of variables. Even in the seven and 7.5% interest rate environment.   Keith Weinhold (00:31:49) - Well, there's so much I can say about the fed and the interest rates, but I think you said something very important earlier that the average shelf life of a mortgage loan product is about five years. It's exceedingly few people. Well, less than 1%. They're making their 360th monthly payment ever at a 30 year fixed rate loan. Charlie, I want to ask you what. Maybe it's becoming sort of known as the Charlie Ridge question. I like to ask you this almost every time that you're on the show, because it gives us a temperature of the market, because you see so many loans and so many appraisals come in there, what percent of appraisals are coming in above value? What percent are coming in on value, and what percent of appraisals are coming in below value?   Caeli Ridge (00:32:26) - We don't see as many low values.   Caeli Ridge (00:32:28) - I think that there was a period of time where that was rampant. It was really frustrating for a lot of people, especially on the Non-owner occupied side. The vast majority are coming in on point, and I think a lot of that has to do with 0809 regulation. Appraisers are kind of scared of their own shadow and overvaluing properties. So I think that they do very everything they can to hit the mark. And I don't see too much over an occasion. We'll see a little bit over. It's more likely to see it over than under these days. I would say, okay, percentages under 10% on the mark 8075 and then over. We'll give it.   Keith Weinhold (00:33:03) - 1515. Okay, a few more over than under, but pretty close to right on value there. You do loans in almost all 50 states. And these are the states where the property is located, not where the borrower lives. Right. So it's every state except a few.   Caeli Ridge (00:33:20) - Right? We're not in North Dakota and we are not in New York.   Caeli Ridge (00:33:22) - Otherwise we are lending in all 48 states where the property is. That is correct.   Keith Weinhold (00:33:27) - Yeah. And you specialize in loans for investors. Like I said earlier, what other loan types do you offer investors and others in there because you do a few primary residence loans too.   Caeli Ridge (00:33:38) - We do lots of primary. I would say, you know, it's 7030 probably. We're very capable, full service direct lender. What that means is we fund on our warehouse line, we underwrite in house, but we don't service these loans. So we bundle them up in mortgage backed securities and we resell them on the secondary market to aggregators. You guys will know this as servicers. Any Mac, Wells Fargo, whoever is going to be the end servicer of the loan. And I've worked really, really hard to create an environment specifically for investors, not exclusively, but largely so that we're not a one size fits all. So I really appreciate the question and being able to articulate to your listeners, we really do everything. It's very uncommon that we don't have a loan product to feed the actual need.   Caeli Ridge (00:34:17) - The one thing that I would say we don't have or don't offer is going to be a lot bear lot loans we don't fund on just bare land, but we can do the Fannie Freddie's bridge loans. So for the fix and flip or fix and hold the BR, we do non QM. This is just non QM is kind of everything outside the Fannie Freddie box. If you can't quite fit into the rigors of Fannie Freddie you're going to be in non QM probably where debt service coverage ratio lives. Bank statement loans live, asset depletion loans live. We have commercial loan products for commercial properties. For residential properties we have. Ground up construction. First line Helocs for relationship clients we have second line Helocs. We had second line for everybody when we pulled back just for relationship clients for reasons that we'll discuss on one on one if anybody's interested in that. What am I forgetting, Keith? You get the point. There's a lot. If you think that you're trying to get financing for residential or commercial properties, please email us and we'll take some information to let you know what we can do.   Keith Weinhold (00:35:10) - Well, yeah, to my point, you provide such a great service in a wide palette of options. It's somewhat easier to describe what you don't do. Yeah. And what you do offer to people. And of course, I've done my own loans in there at Ridge and my own refinancings in there. And yes, I usually end up getting a servicer. That's one of the big banks that you've always heard of over the long term that I make payments to. Where does one get started to get things rolling with Ridge or just to ask some questions.   Caeli Ridge (00:35:36) - Call us 855747434385574. Ridge, you'll get someone immediately. We don't have any call trees. You'll speak to me if I'm available at the time. Our website's got a lot of great information. Ridge lending group.com email info at Ridge Lending group.com. All of those ways will get you on the books with me, if that's what you like. Or assign you to a loan officer in the company. And we look forward to serving you.   Keith Weinhold (00:36:00) - You have given our longtime listeners more good, timely mortgage information than anyone in the history of the show here, and we're all better for it.   Keith Weinhold (00:36:09) - Charlie Ridge, thanks so much for coming back on to the show.   Caeli Ridge (00:36:11) - Thank you Keith.   Keith Weinhold (00:36:18) - Let's review some of what you learned about Bir and their loans today. Once your property is renovated and rented, which are the first and second are the third are. Is refinance for a cash out refinance type? It is a maximum of 75% loan to value on single family and 70% on a 2 to 4 unit, and then for a rate and term refinance, which means when you don't get any money in hand after closing and you're simply paying off existing liens plus closing costs, it's 80% loan to value on single family and 75% on a 2 to 4 unit. And you learn to be sure that both the purchase price and the acquisition cost are listed on your final closing disclosure. You know what I think is interesting with originating mortgage loans today? Overall, it's one question that I've been thinking about, and maybe we'll do a poll on this question. If we do, I'll share the results with you. And that is, do people care more about the mortgage interest rate than the purchase price of the property itself? Sometimes it seems that way to me.   Keith Weinhold (00:37:29) - Now your mortgage rate definitely matters, but not as much as the purchase price. I mean, later months or years down the road. After you purchase a property, you can often renegotiate the mortgage interest rate, like if rates fall, but your purchase price stays fixed, that part never gets renegotiated. And like I mentioned last week, low mortgage rates don't create wealth. Leverage does. And to put a finer point on that, consider that in 1971, the mortgage interest rate was 7.3%. Back there in 1971, if you had waited for interest rates to go down, you wouldn't have purchased a home or an income property until 1993. You would have waited 22 years for rates to go down. And meanwhile the price of real estate quadrupled, and many people expect mortgage rates to stay higher, longer. Whether you're interested in the BR strategy or already renovated income, property or even primary residence loans, I invite you. You can get loans at the same place that I have myself for years. That's it.   Keith Weinhold (00:38:41) - Ridge lending group.com. Until next week. I'm your host, Keith Winfield. Don't quit your day dream.   Speaker 6 (00:38:52) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get Rich education LLC exclusively.   Keith Weinhold (00:39:20) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com.

Get Rich Education
496: The Housing Market's Future—Trends and Predictions

Get Rich Education

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 8, 2024 41:42


Get our free real estate course and newsletter: GRE Letter Apartment construction is falling. It's not because banks are pulling back from lending. Projects aren't feasible for builders. Housing market intelligence analyst Rick Sharga returns to discuss the real estate market.  We discuss: real estate price movement, affordability concerns, expected mortgage rate changes, migration, price reductions, new homes vs. existing homes. Can anyone even find a new-build $225K detached SFH today? They're nearly extinct. Homebuilders are still buying down mortgage rates for you into the 4%s and 5%s at GREmarketplace.com. America needs more SFHs, especially at the entry-level.  Apartment rents have declined a little. SFH rents are up about 3% year-over-year.  Delinquency and foreclosure activity remains low. These have a strong correlation with unemployment rates. The volume of homes sales should increase this year, but only by perhaps 10%. A recession is still quite possible later this year and expected to be mild. Every region of the nation is currently experiencing residential RE price growth.  When mortgage rates fall, more new buyers than sellers are expected, pushing up property prices. Resources mentioned: Show Page: GetRichEducation.com/496 Inquire about business with Rick: CJPatrick.com Rick Sharga on X: @ricksharga LinkedIn: Rick Sharga For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  Top Properties & Providers: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREmarketplace.com/Coach Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Keith's personal Instagram: @keithweinhold   Complete episode transcript:   Keith Weinhold (00:00:00) - Welcome to GRE. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Tons of new apartments were built last year, but that's abruptly going to change going forward. You'll learn why. Then a housing market intelligence analyst and I break down what's happening in the real estate market and the future direction of rents, prices, foreclosures, interest rates, and a lot more today on get Rich education. When you want the best real estate and finance info. The modern internet experience limits your free articles access, and it's replete with paywalls. And you've got pop ups and push notifications and cookies. Disclaimers are at no other time in history has it been more vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that actually adds no hype value to your life? See, this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor and it's to the point to get the letter. It couldn't be more simple. Text GRE to 66866. And when you start the free newsletter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate course completely free.   Keith Weinhold (00:01:16) - It's called the Don't Quit Your Day Dream letter and it wires your mind for wealth. Make sure you read it. Text GRE to 66866. Text GRE 266866.   Corey Coates (00:01:34) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold (00:01:50) - Welcome to grow from Alexandria, Egypt, to Alexandria, Virginia, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, holding your inside get rich education. I'm grateful to have you here. A few weeks ago, I discussed all the apartment buildings that were constructed last year. One thing that you'll often hear out there today is that apartment construction is now falling because banks are pulling back on construction lending. But no, it's really not quite that simple. In fact, that's not even the top reason for construction delays now and going forward with apartments. The number one reason for the delays today is that the project is not economically feasible at this time. That's what the NMC tells us. All right. So what does that really mean? Well, it means that projects aren't penciling out.   Keith Weinhold (00:02:44) - In other words, apartment developers, they can't generate the returns that they need to justify the project to their capital partners, those that are funding the building. And this is, by the way, not about greedy developers, because contrary to some of the noise, it's the fact that developers do not self-fund their projects. They get the money from others. So yeah, it's the developer's job to convince investors and lenders to inject that capital. And that is just harder to do right now. Despite developer's best efforts and higher rates are obviously still contributing to the problem. It's not so much that the construction financing is not available, because for residential, it's often there. It's available. The thing is, is that apartment mortgage terms and rates are way less favorable than they were a couple of years ago, as we all know. So developers, I mean, they're paying a higher interest rate then. And you therefore need higher rent to cover that higher interest rate unless you can cut a lot of costs elsewhere and in apartments, you're also getting a lower loan to value ratio.   Keith Weinhold (00:03:55) - So that means developers, they therefore need to raise even more equity in order to cover that gap. And what's happened is a lot of the equity that's shifted away from brand new ground up apartment development, and instead it's gone over into chasing potential lease up distressed deals, properties that are already out there and are having some problems. So that's where the apartment money is moving right now. Not so much to new developers and builders also aren't building many apartments this year because construction costs remain a problem. Some materials got cheaper, others didn't. One bright spot is that construction labor that is getting easier to find. But yet the actual labor cost that really hasn't dropped. Property insurance is higher too, so these rising expenses, that means apartment projects are not penciling out for builders and then apartment rents. They're just not rising that much. That doesn't help. So it's hard for it to rise, since so many were built last year and the year before. They're in the apartment world. But obviously the long term demand is for just about all residential housing.   Keith Weinhold (00:05:11) - That demand. Is there loads of long term demand for apartments, condos, single family homes, co-ops, modular homes, mobile homes, duplexes, triplexes, fourplex container homes, row houses, farmhouses, penthouses, outhouses. I think you get the idea. The demand is there. Residential is the resilient spot, and it's all about where you want to get in. And speaking of homebuilders and finding a smart place to get in, it's important to share with you the good news that homebuilders are still buying down your interest. Right for you. Now the third year rate, it hit 8% last year. And Non-owner occupied property costs a little more. So it was nearly 9% on income property. It's come down off that as we know it's been around seven lately. But see here at GREwe work with builders that are still buying down your interest rate into the fives and sometimes still into the fours on new construction, single family homes, up to four plex and sometimes larger in Florida, Alabama and elsewhere. I mean, that is just the best deal going for you today to have an income producing new build property in the path of growth at 4 to 1, leverage to 5 to 1 leverage and.   Keith Weinhold (00:06:46) - Your mortgage in the fives or less, and we'll help you find the real deals within that. To connect with a great investment coach at great marketplace.com. I think you'll be glad you did. Now, today, if somehow I could use a time machine to write a letter back to my 2020 self and inform myself about what's going to happen in the housing market for the next 4 or 5 years? And I had to keep this note to myself short. I would have written that everything is going to shoot way up, rents up, prices up, interest rates up, expenses up, inflation up. Well, now that nearly all of those run ups have settled into place, we can draw a clearer picture of where we think the real estate market is going to be positioned in the future. Our guest has just freshened things up and he's got the latest in the property market all updated for us. I do two with my own research. You'll like this. It's our housing intelligence analyst guests and I. Straight ahead.   Keith Weinhold (00:07:55) - I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get Rich education.    You know, I'll just tell you, for the most passive part of my real estate investing, personally, I put my own dollars with Freedom Family Investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in returns, or better than a bank savings account, up to 12%. Their minimums are as low as 25 K. You don't even need to be accredited for some of them. It's all backed by real estate and that kind of love. How the tax benefit of doing this can offset capital gains and your W-2 jobs income. And they've always given me exactly their stated return paid on time. So it's steady income, no surprises while I'm sleeping or just doing the things I love. For a little insider tip, I've invested in their power fund to get going on that text family to 66866. Oh, and this isn't a solicitation. If you want to invest where I do, just go ahead and text family to 66866. Role under the specific expert with income property, you need Ridge Lending Group and MLS for 256 injury history from beginners to veterans.   Keith Weinhold (00:09:15) - They provided our listeners with more mortgages than anyone. It's where I get my own loans for single family rentals up to four Plex's. Start your pre-qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge. Personally, they'll even customize a plan tailored to you for growing your portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending group.com Ridge lending group.com.   Kristin Tate (00:09:42) - This is author Kristin Tate. Listen to get Rich education with Keith Weinhold. Don't quit your day dream.   Keith Weinhold (00:09:59) - Hey what has not been a very long goodbye. Just like last week when we discussed the economy this week we have the return of the C.J. Patrick Company's Rick Sharga, an extraordinary housing intelligence analyst, as we more specifically cover the real estate market. And if you're on video, you'll have the benefit of seeing some charts as well. Rick. Welcome back. Good to be back, Keith. Long time no see. Yeah, it hasn't been so long. What are your overall thoughts with the housing market? Last week we largely talked about a resilient economy potentially with some headwinds. Yeah we did.   Keith Weinhold (00:10:32) - And I think we're one of the things we left off on was the impact that the Federal Reserve had had on the mortgage market and the housing market. We probably start there. When you look at what's gone on, and just to show you how random all of this can feel sometimes this is a snapshot of mortgage rates from March 12th. And mortgage rates were trading at about 6.92% for a 30 year fixed rate loan.   Rick Sharga (00:10:56) - The most recent number I saw was about 7.1%. And as I mentioned to you and your listeners last time, I expect until the Federal Reserve makes its first fed funds rate cut, we're going to see mortgages trade right around 7% between 6.75 and 7.25%. This has made a big difference in the market because it has limited affordability for literally millions of prospective home buyers. That's makes for a difficult situation for people looking to buy or sell homes, but it also presents millions of rental property opportunities because these people need to live somewhere and they've voted themselves off the island temporarily. They just can't afford to buy a house.   Rick Sharga (00:11:41) - And you see that in terms of the reduction in number of mortgage applications that are being made. So if the Mortgage Bankers Association tracks the number of people that apply for loans, if you went back to December when mortgage rates dipped just a little bit, we saw a run up of loan applications, and as soon as they went back up to seven, we saw that number fall off. It's a very, very rate sensitive market. We'll talk a little bit about some of the implications of that as we move ahead, Keith. But the weak affordability, the higher interest rates, the continuing high home prices led to a very, very weak year in 2023. In terms of overall home sales, we ended the year with about 3.9 million existing homes sold. That's the lowest number of homes sold in a year in a quarter century. Yeah, even lower than we saw in the Great Recession. And December was the 28th consecutive month where we sold fewer properties than we sold the year before.   Keith Weinhold (00:12:39) - So a contraction in the number of sales, although prices appreciated last year.   Rick Sharga (00:12:44) - Yeah, we'll talk about that this year. I'd been hopeful that we'd be a little bit of a better start. January and February were both up in terms of home sales on a month over month basis, but continued this trend of lower sales on a year over year basis. We're looking at 30 consecutive months where we sold fewer properties than we sold the prior year. As a result of this.   Keith Weinhold (00:13:05) - Supply crash, that really began about four years ago.   Rick Sharga (00:13:08) - It's partly supplied as partly costs, that affordability. We really can't overestimate the impact that affordability has had. But you're right in terms of inventory and in fact, a good segue, it's almost like you'd seen this before, Keith. Inventory is up significantly from last year, about 24% higher than it was a year ago, according to some data from Altos Research. But it's still only running about half of 2019 levels. So in a normal market, we would have about a six month supply of homes available for sale in our market today, we're looking at somewhere between two and a half and three months supply.   Rick Sharga (00:13:44) - That lack of supply with some pent up demand is one of the reasons we have seen prices continue to be very healthy, and we haven't seen the the price crash that all the snake oil salesmen on YouTube comments. As of mid-March, about 513,000 homes available for sale, again, about 24% higher. Than last year when the numbers were just dismal. We normally do see more inventory coming to market this time of year. We'll not get anywhere near where we were back in, you know, years like 2019, 2020. But it wouldn't be a surprise to see a little bit more inventory coming to market.   Keith Weinhold (00:14:21) - Now, Rick, for existing properties, we have the very well documented interest rate lock in effect. I think a lot of people understand that. But as far as bringing more supply onto the market, do you see anything from the builder side? You know, costs are up for builders and builders feel this lack of affordability from the buyer market as well. So therefore that motivates them to build somewhat less.   Keith Weinhold (00:14:43) - And they're also building smaller properties, some shrinkflation with new construction property to try to help out with that affordability. So what are your thoughts with builder motivations this year and next year?   Rick Sharga (00:14:54) - All that thought is we're going to get to new homes in just a couple of minutes. So keep that right forefront in mind. But let's just kind of wrap up on existing sales. I do want to point out to your listeners that the inventory growth is actually outpacing the number of new listings. So new listings are only up about 14% year over year, whereas overall inventory is up 24%. The reason for that is it's taking longer to sell homes once they get to market. So once those properties are listed, they're staying in the inventory numbers a little bit longer than they were last year or even a few months ago. So that's one of the reasons the inventory numbers look a little bit better than they did. You talked about the rate lock effect. It's still very real. About two thirds of everybody with a mortgage has a mortgage rate of 4% or less.   Rick Sharga (00:15:43) - And this is not home sellers being picky or having a psychological problem. This is math. If you sell a property today and buy a new one for exactly the same price as the one you just sold, you've now doubled your monthly mortgage payment and most people simply can't afford to do that. So the properties being listed or by by people who feel like they need to sell, there's a death in the family or a birth in the family. There's a divorce or there's a marriage. There's a job loss or job that requires a transfer, maybe some financial difficulties where the borrowers in distress so they feel like they have to sell the home, or somebody's been retired for a long time, has a lot of equity, and just says, oh the heck with it. It's time for me to downsize. But the people who would normally be making a decision that maybe I'd like to sell, maybe I'd like to look at a move up opportunity. Those people are sitting on the sidelines and rather than seeing a price crash, which is what people are breathlessly trying to sell you on YouTube, the most likely scenario, something we've seen play out in the 80s and 90s and is likely to play out again in the 2020s, which is several years of kind of lackluster sales volume and modest price growth.   Rick Sharga (00:16:54) - And it takes a few years to reset the levels so that all those people with the Sub4 mortgages gradually, slowly work their way out of inventory and are replaced by people with mortgages that are closer to today's rates. And we've seen that happen, like I said, in the 80s and 90s, and it's a very normal occurrence when you have a sudden shift in either mortgage rates or home prices, that's much more likely to happen than a 2030 40% drop in home prices to make things affordable. And I would just ask anybody who's skeptical, if somebody approached you tomorrow and you didn't have to sell, but they said, hey, sell me your house for 40% less than market value. How interested would you be in having that conversation?   Keith Weinhold (00:17:36) - Wouldn't last long.   Rick Sharga (00:17:37) - No. And then home prices are up in every region. You mentioned this, Keith. Across the country I'm sharing for people that can see it. I'm sharing data from the Fhfa, which is the entity that controls Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. So all of those 30 year fixed rate conventional loans and a year over year basis, we saw prices go up 6.3%.   Rick Sharga (00:17:56) - They were up in every region of the country. And that's a little different than the prior year when the Pacific region was actually down. But every region of the country is seeing price growth right now. And whichever price index you look at Case-Shiller,, Freddie Mac, the Fhfa index, National Association of Realtors, everybody showed similar numbers were every region was up. But importantly for your listeners and I emphasize this enough, local results are very different than national results. So even within markets where we're seeing prices go up, there are going to be neighborhoods where prices are going down and vice versa. So it's much more important for you to understand what's going on in your local market than to listen to a lot of these national trends. I will tell you that some of the markets that overheated during the pandemic, as people were moving out of high priced, high tax or highly congested areas, are seeing a bit of a clawback. So places like Boise, Idaho and Saint George's, Utah and Austin and Phoenix and Las Vegas, we're seeing those markets with the prices clawing back a little bit, a lot of price growth continuing the southeast.   Rick Sharga (00:19:04) - So and surprisingly now in the Midwest as well. So we are still seeing a bit of a migration from high price, high tax areas into lower priced markets. I tell folks, Keith, I have two adult kids living at home. My son's getting married in September. He's a teacher. His fiance is a lawyer, and they took me aside recently and said, hey, you follow this stuff. What states should we be looking at outside of California to move so that we can own a house?   Keith Weinhold (00:19:31) - Wow, that is really, really interesting that that would dictate their decision on where they live, if they have that much of a preference to own rather than rent. Recently, a lot of us in the industry learned that the average age of the first time homebuyer is now 36, older than ever.   Rick Sharga (00:19:48) - Yep. And these are two kids with good heads on their shoulders. They know there are benefits to homeownership, and they also know that the median price of a home sold in California last month was almost $800,000, and the First National Bank of dad ain't financing that acquisition.   Rick Sharga (00:20:02) - So I'm sure these conversations are happening in New York, in Chicago, in Miami and in San Francisco, and it's just the reality of today's marketplace. We talked about prices going up. We are seeing slightly more homes having a price reduction before they're sold. That always happens somewhere along the lines of 30 to 35% of homes listed wind up with a price reduction before they're sold. We're up to about 31% now, so we're still in the normal range, but we're a little higher than we've been in recent months.   Keith Weinhold (00:20:35) - This is interesting, a statistic we don't talk about very much, the percent of homes experiencing list price reductions.   Rick Sharga (00:20:42) - And it peaked in 2022. The highest number we've seen in quite a while was over 40%. And that was right after interest rates doubled. And so it's probably not a huge surprise. People were anticipating they were pricing based on the prior market. And I think we're seeing more rational pricing today. But again, that combination of prices just being as high as they are and interest rates being as high as they are, are creating some affordability issues.   Rick Sharga (00:21:05) - And for people that have to sell, they're taking price reductions. Now, keep in mind these price reductions are often very, very minimal. In California, for example, the average price reduction is less than a percent. So it's not a huge reduction, but it's still a reduction from what the list price was. You asked about new homes. So now I'm going to make you happy. We'll talk about new homes. New home inventory levels are increasing. We normally want to see about a six month supply of existing homes for sale. The new home inventory is usually between 7 and 8 months. And we're back to that number right now. Some of those homes available for sale are still under construction, but they are nonetheless available for sale. And we've seen that inventory improve over the last year as supply chain disruptions have minimized as builders are now more able to find laborers for construction. Those are two huge holdups they had over the last couple of years, and we've seen new home sales increase. And one of the reasons for that is they're available.   Rick Sharga (00:22:05) - So if you're a builder and you put a home in the market at the right price, you're going to sell it because there just aren't that many existing homes available for sale. And to your other point, Keith, new home prices are actually down 15% from peak. Existing home prices are up, new home prices are down. And in fact, if you look at the most recent new home pricing data put up by the Census Bureau recently, new home prices are at the lowest level since June of 2021. So they've really come down pretty significantly and are not that far away from existing home prices in many markets. So that median price of an existing home and the median price of a new home for sale are closer than they've been in years, partly because the builders are building smaller homes, partly because you're using less expensive fixtures. And the other thing that the builders have been doing, and this price is a lot of people, but it's brilliant on their part, is they're coming to closing with thousands of dollars and they're paying down mortgage rates.   Rick Sharga (00:23:01) - They're buying points and dropping the mortgage rate for their buyers. I spoke to a group in Denver recently where there was a local builder advertising mortgage rates of 4.99%. So think about that.   Keith Weinhold (00:23:13) - We have providers we work with here that are doing similar things. We're still seeing the rate buy downs happening, and that's why I've often told people, Rick, like, this is potentially a good time in the cycle when you're adding more rental property to really look at new builds or build to rent while these rate buy downs last. Now, I talked to a builder in Houston yesterday, and I learned a few interesting things. You talked about the smaller square footages. They could confirm that often times this builder offers either a bedroom or a study. You can get an extra bedroom or a study like a little office space. And more and more people are opting for the study. So they're starting to build homes more with the study in mind because more people are working from home and one less bedroom because people are having fewer children.   Rick Sharga (00:23:57) - Exactly right. It's the combination of both of those two things, either having fewer children or having them later. And many more people working from home than they were prior to the pandemic. And those studies become very, very useful., rooms to have in the house. Rick, what.   Keith Weinhold (00:24:12) - Is the lowest cost, new build, single family home that you see? I mean, is anyone even building in any parts of the nation, like a 225 K new build home? I haven't seen one.   Rick Sharga (00:24:26) - I haven't seen one. But I wouldn't be surprised if you're in a market in a state like Alabama or Mississippi and some of the more outlying areas, maybe some markets in the Midwest where home prices aren't as astronomical as they are elsewhere. But look, the builders are building judiciously. They're not overbuilding., we had a cycle in 2008 where we had a 13 month supply of homes available for sale and building Irish building. They got caught with overstock. But what they are building, they tend to build as move up homes because they're more profitable.   Rick Sharga (00:24:58) - So you're just not seeing an awful lot of entry level homes being built. And the hope is that as they build that first move up level home, some of the people with entry level homes will opt to sell and bring some of that inventory back to market. We are seeing more construction. We are seeing building permits,, going up on a year over year basis., most recent numbers are around 1.5 million permits. So the builders are bullish on the future. And housing starts were up in both January and February. Most importantly they're up most strongly in single family owner occupied homes. We're seeing housing starts to decline dramatically in terms of multifamily starts, right. But that's because there's about a million new apartment units coming online between last year and this year. And we don't need a whole lot more apartments., we need,, more single family homes. So if your listeners are seeing headlines talking about housing starts being lower, it's really because we're seeing fewer multifamily starts.   Keith Weinhold (00:25:54) - Last year was a big year for multifamily construction.   Rick Sharga (00:25:57) - All time high in terms of multifamily units under construction. And a lot of those are still coming to market this year. There are going to be some markets that are actually still oversupplied. So again, you have to be paying very close attention. When we talk a little bit about the rental market in the apartment category, we have seen apartment rents decline year over year in pretty much all categories. Whether you're looking at studio apartments, one bedroom apartments, two better apartments on a year over year basis, rents are actually in negative territory, according to Realtor.com and according to some data I've recently seen from RealPage. If you're looking at the actual price of rent and I know that's a little different than percentage increases or decreases, you're still seeing that rents about it's below peak. It's about 1.6% below the peak we hit in 2022,, when vacancy rates were just about nothing. But we are still below peak, and the median rent is ranging,, somewhere in the neighborhood of $1,700 a year for apartments, single family homes, which I suspect more of your listeners are actually,, renting out than apartments.   Rick Sharga (00:27:03) - Yes. Are doing better. We're seeing year over year rents continue to grow. They're growing modestly. They have not gone into negative territory, and they haven't,, during this boom and bust cycle that we've seen in the housing market. And if you're looking at,, price gains, according to some recent data from CoreLogic, if you're at the higher end of the single family rental market, prices are up about 3% year over year. At the low end, they're up about 2.9%. So very little difference depending on your price tier and also very little difference depending on whether you're looking at an attached single family residence or,, detached family single family residence. All those are up right around 3% year over year. And that's a good sign. Again, you're dealing with a as your your listeners know, you're dealing with a slightly different tenant in a single family home than you are in a, an apartment. And a lot of these people who would have been buyers or opting to rent stands to reason that,, they'd rather rent a house, particularly if it's in a good school district or in a good neighborhood than an apartment, because they have needs.   Keith Weinhold (00:28:06) - Rents are extremely stable historically. They just sort of plod up slowly. What happened about two years ago, three years ago, with that 15% plus rent increase, that's an aberration.   Rick Sharga (00:28:19) - Yeah, that's a good point, Keith. If we're looking at 3% rental growth year over year right now in the single family rental market that tracks with historic normals, usually you're somewhere between 1 and 5% a year. So threes, you know, smack dab in the middle of all that. And the growth rates also vary wildly by markets., just kind of give you a range if you're looking at a single family rental property in Honolulu, in the city, year over year, you're up about 6%. If you're looking at a unit in Miami, Florida, you're down about 2.5%.   Keith Weinhold (00:28:50) - So rental growth rates.   Rick Sharga (00:28:52) - Rental growth rates. So really just depends on where you are. That's pretty much your range from a couple points down to I think Honolulu actually had the largest,, increase in the CoreLogic study. A lot of your listeners are probably interested in buying foreclosure properties.   Rick Sharga (00:29:07) - We're not seeing a lot of foreclosure activity. Still, we are starting to see a little weakness in consumers. When we met last week, we talked a little bit about the strength of consumer spending, but we also talked about increasing amounts of spending on credit cards. And we're seeing consumer delinquency rates increase in pretty much every aspect of consumer lending, whether it's a loan, whether it's a credit card debt, whether it's an auto loan, whether it's a home equity line of credit, whether it's a mortgage, a mortgage, delinquencies are up a little bit. The only category we're not seeing an increase in delinquencies right now is student loans. And my theory on that is that people have only recently had to start making payments again on student loans, and we don't have any data to show that they're going delinquent yet. But the delinquency numbers we need to take with a grain of salt, because many of them are most of them are early stage delinquency. So somebody missed a payment, but then they catch up before they get 60 or 90 days delinquent.   Rick Sharga (00:30:02) - But we are seeing trends that suggest more delinquencies. And if you have more delinquencies, that leads to more foreclosures. Mortgage delinquency rates, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, went up to about 3.8% in the fourth quarter, the historic average going back to the 1970s, which is as far back as the NBA goes, is about 5.25%. So we're still way below normal levels of delinquencies. As I mentioned, most of those are early stage delinquencies, and they're being resolved before they get more serious. Because of that, we don't have a lot of foreclosure activity. So this is no longer Keith government intervention. It's no longer government forbearance programs and foreclosure moratoriums. It's the fact that the economy's been so strong. Unemployment rates have a very strong correlation to mortgage delinquency rates. We got together last time I mentioned the unemployment rate was at 3.9%. I just told you that word delinquencies are at 3.8. Can't get much closer than that. And because of that, foreclosure activity is still down almost 30% from where we were in 2019 prior to the pandemic.   Rick Sharga (00:31:07) - And I should point out, the 2019 wasn't a particularly big year for foreclosures either. So I don't see us getting back to pre-pandemic levels of foreclosure activity until sometime next year. And what's important for people in this space to understand is that even though we're seeing roughly the same number of delinquencies that we saw back in 2019, fewer of those delinquent loans are going into foreclosure. Fewer of those foreclosures are getting as far as the auction, and even fewer of those are going back to the banks as REO properties or bank owned properties.   Keith Weinhold (00:31:40) - Delinquency occurs before foreclosure. We have low levels of both, and I would imagine that one substantial reason for that are these low fixed rate payments that so many people have. Minutes ago, you showed us that 90% of those with a mortgage have a rate in the fives or less. And then oftentimes when we talk about these sorts of things, we don't even consider the fact that more than 4 in 10 homeowners are free and clear. They don't have any mortgage at all. So it's difficult for people to get in trouble.   Rick Sharga (00:32:10) - Yeah. And when they do get in trouble, what's really a saving grace for a lot of these people? And I believe the reason we're seeing fewer foreclosure auctions and bank repossessions is that there's $31 trillion in homeowner equity in the market, and 90% of borrowers in foreclosure have positive equity. A huge percentage of those have at least 20% equity. So what's happening interesting is that many, many of these borrowers are protecting their equity by selling their home before the foreclosure sale. If they get to foreclosure sale, they run the risk of losing all their equity, or at least the overwhelming majority of their equity.   Keith Weinhold (00:32:48) - That's a great point with how this really works.   Rick Sharga (00:32:50) - And so if you're looking to buy a distressed property, if you're looking to buy a foreclosure property, you really need to be working directly with the homeowner in the earliest stages of foreclosure rather than waiting for the auction. And certainly rather than waiting for the bank to repossess the home and resell it. And some recent data from a friend of mine@auction.com tracking some numbers from Adam Data.   Rick Sharga (00:33:15) - 55% of the distressed properties that were sold through from June through to September of last year were sold in that pre foreclosure period prior to the foreclosure auction. That's wildly different than we've been in in years past. So really important for anybody looking to buy distressed property, to consider moving upstream and working directly with that homeowner. And it's a win win. You can help that homeowner protect their equity, have some cash to make a fresh start with and, and typically buy a home in pretty good condition and a home that you need to be part of your rental portfolio. So just kind of recapping some of the stuff we talked about, Keith, both today and last week, I still think that from an economic standpoint, there's still at least a good possibility we might have a short, mild recession sometime later this year. I don't see unemployment going much higher than 5%. Even if we do have a recession, if we don't have a recession, we'll only see the economy slowed down a bit. It might be hard to tell the difference.   Rick Sharga (00:34:10) - I'm expecting the volume of home sales to go up. I think we bottomed out in 2023, but not by a lot. Maybe we see a 10% lift over last year, which would take us to roughly 4.4 million existing homes. I wouldn't be surprised to see 700,000 new homes sold, really just depends on how quickly builders bring inventory to market. But if I'm right and mortgage rates go down slowly over the second half of this year, we'll see more home buyers come to market more quickly than sellers. We don't see a lot of sellers come to market until we get interest rates down to about 5.5% or lower, which probably won't happen until 2025. So more buyers coming to market than sellers means the prices will continue to go up. We continue to see investors account for 25 to 30% of all residential purchases. So I think we'll continue to see a higher rate, partly because investors are active, partly because a lot of consumers are waiting for market conditions to improve, but that limited affordability in today's market conditions, I really do think means more demand for rental units.   Rick Sharga (00:35:14) - And I think foreclosure activity stays below normal levels for the rest of this year, and REO inventory bank repossessions are going to remain even lower for even longer. I don't think we see REO activity come back to more normal levels for at least a couple of years, so anybody looking to buy these properties really does need to be moving upstream in order to make those purchases.   Keith Weinhold (00:35:34) - Yeah, with low affordability, hence more demand for rentals. I've already noticed that the homeownership rate, which is somewhat of a trailing number here, has already fallen from 66% to 65.7%. And with low affordability, it seems that that homeownership rate could fall even more, meaning the rate of renters would be higher.   Rick Sharga (00:35:54) - A friend of mine always complains that the government's somehow beside behind all of these trends, one way or the other, and and wonders why, with all the government programs aimed at increasing homeownership, we haven't seen that homeownership rate increase much. And I think sometimes things said to the natural level and our homeownership rate, really for the last 30 years, has been somewhere between 64% and 66%.   Rick Sharga (00:36:19) - And that might just be what the natural level for homeownership is in the United States. Will it dip a little bit as people can't afford to buy a house? Probably. Probably will. When market conditions improve for buyers, will it go up a little bit? Probably. But we hit 70% homeownership back in 2006. And it turned out that was the bad number and that not everybody's ready financially for the kind of commitment that homeownership requires. And so I've always said that the key isn't getting everybody into a home. It's the sustainability of homeownership for people that that we do get into that house. One of the best days of your life is when you get the key to that house, and it has to be one of the worst days if you have to give it back. So I hope we all keep that in mind as we move forward.   Keith Weinhold (00:37:03) - That's right. Government incentives is in the past saying there's a $10,000 first time homebuyer tax credit. Oh, we're not in an era where we need help. On the demand side, all you're doing is driving up prices.   Keith Weinhold (00:37:14) - And I don't know that you're helping out anybody in that case. But I think with really overall, one big takeaway here, Rick, is that if you the listener, if you're waiting for prices to drop substantially sometime or for interest rates to drop substantially sometime, that might not be worth the wait. You could be waiting a long time.   Rick Sharga (00:37:32) - I do expect mortgage rates will decline. I don't really go back to the sub for rates we saw a few years ago, but they're going to decline slowly and they may not decline enough to offset rising home prices. I mean, you have to get your calculator out and and figure out how that math works for you. But you're absolutely right, Keith. And I tell people today, even with mortgage rates being where they are, if you find a house you love or you find a house that's a good investment and you pencil it out and the numbers work, don't wait because the opportunity costs can be severe and you could wind up missing out on a property that could either be a good cash flow unit for you on rental, or it could be a property that you wind up living in for the next 30 years.   Rick Sharga (00:38:13) - So don't be afraid of today's market. Just be very prudent and judicious in the way you approach it.   Keith Weinhold (00:38:19) - Well, Rick, get resuscitation of followers and the nation have been a beneficiary of your housing market intelligence expertise for quite a while now. If someone wants to engage with you in the CJ Patrick Company, who are those types of people and how could you help?   Rick Sharga (00:38:36) - I appreciate the opportunity. Most of the companies I work with or companies that provide services to lenders, anybody who has a business that's in the real estate or financial services markets, who would benefit from my coming in to share with them industry data, or has data themselves that they would like to get out into the marketplace? Anything data related really, I tend to specialize in. So market updates and market overviews and market. Analysis or things that I do on a pretty much daily basis for companies.   Keith Weinhold (00:39:07) - How can they engage with you?   Rick Sharga (00:39:08) - They can find our website, which is C.J. patrick.com. They can find me on Twitter. I hide there under my name, Rick, or reach out to me on LinkedIn.   Rick Sharga (00:39:17) - And if you reach out to me on on a social media channel, make sure that you mention you know me through Keith, and you're not some crazy Russian bot trying to hack into my personal information.   Keith Weinhold (00:39:27) - Well, then, Rick, it's been great having you back on the show.   Rick Sharga (00:39:30) - I'm sure we'll do it again sometime soon. Thanks for having me.   Keith Weinhold (00:39:39) - Yeah, terrific Intel there. In this episode, Rick said that to still expect a lower amount of sales going forward and expect modest property price appreciation. Every region of the nation is seeing price growth now. And by the way, you remember that late last year, I unveiled Gray's home price appreciation forecast for this year, stating that prices should rise 4% and here in Q2, I still like how that looks. There is not much distress with current homeowners, but if you're looking to scoop up a foreclosed property cheap, you better get aggressive and work directly with the homeowner in the earliest stages of foreclosure. Don't wait for that property to go to auction. Rick also said more demand for rental units is coming, and I encourage you to engage with Rick.   Keith Weinhold (00:40:30) - Let him know you heard about him through me. If you want to go deeper and engage with some of the services that he offers, perhaps you work for a real estate company or a demographic company. You can do that at C.J. patrick.com. But most of you, the listener is an individual investor. So check him out on X where his handle is Rick Sharga. He is Rick Sharga on LinkedIn. Big thanks to Rick Sharga today. Until next week I'm your host, Keith Wild. Don't quit your daydream.   Speaker 5 (00:41:04) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get Rich education LLC exclusively.   Keith Weinhold (00:41:32) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com.

BiggerPockets Daily
1263 - Investors: Stop Worrying About Interest Rates—Here's Why Right Now Is the Time to Buy by Caeli Ridge

BiggerPockets Daily

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 30, 2024 11:35


The year 2024 can feel like a confusing space to inhabit for rookie investors. You have the cash, you have the plan, and you've done your research. There remains one big issue: Interest rates that are currently much higher than the historically low rates we had pre-2022.  If you've done your research into investment financing, you know that investors pay even higher mortgage interest than regular homebuyers (typically between 0.75% and 1.5% higher). Right now, that is a daunting prospect, with regular mortgage rates still hovering just under 7%.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast
915: BiggerNews: Why Mortgage Rates AREN'T Falling w/Caeli Ridge

BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 15, 2024 33:55


The Fed has signaled something significant for mortgage rates. With inflation still rearing its head and the job market hot as ever, the Fed already has enough evidence to hold back on lowering the federal funds rate, which influences the mortgage rate you get on a home. So when will the Fed finally lower rates so we can escape this highly unaffordable mortgage market? Or, can the Fed pause for the foreseeable future as we enter a new era of high interest rates? Caeli Ridge, President of Ridge Lending Group, is here to help us answer these questions. Caeli works on getting investors mortgages every single day, so she has a solid pulse on the mortgage market. She gives us a mortgage rate update, explaining what today's rates look like, when the first Fed rate cuts could come (sooner than you think!), and how a mortgage lender calculates your specific rate. She also gives some tips on navigating this high-rate environment and why merely looking at your mortgage rate as a deciding factor could cost you big time. As we wrap up, Dave will give his perspective on what the Fed is waiting for and the factors that MUST change before the Fed decides to proceed with a rate cut. He'll also share a few tips on how to get ahead of the competition with today's high rates and why these unique advantages won't last long.  In This Episode We Cover How long we'll have to wait for the Fed to finally cut rates  March 2024 rate update and the rate you can expect on your next mortgage  What matters MUCH more than your mortgage rate when closing on a property  LLPAs (loan-level price adjustments) and how to score a lower interest rate from your mortgage lender The crucial economic factors the Fed is watching to decide when to lower mortgage rates How to get ahead of the competition during a high-rate environment and buy when the masses are distracted  And So Much More! Click here to listen to the full episode: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/real-estate-915 Interested in learning more about today's sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Get Rich Education
491: A Savings Account That OTHERS Fund For You

Get Rich Education

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 4, 2024 37:48


Others quietly fund a savings account for you with every income property that you own.  This is known as your ROA, your Return on Amortization. Primary residence owners don't have this benefit. Tenants rent a property from you. To own the property, you got to “rent” the money from the bank. Landlord tipflation: have you ever asked your tenant for a tip? I don't recommend it. Integrity: Now that the statistics are in, I follow up on my 2023 Home Price Appreciation (HPA) Forecast. See how it went. When measuring HPA, I explain why I use existing home prices, not new home prices. The size of a new-build home has shrunk 12-15% in just the last decade. Learn about the surprising correlation between rents and home prices. Be honest. Is it completely different that what you thought? Redfin just reported that real estate investor purchases are breaking records. Find the right income property for building your wealth. Our GRE Investment Coaches provide you with free guidance at GREmarketplace.com.  Timestamps: Welcome to Get Rich Education (00:00:01) Introduction to the episode and a brief overview of the topics covered. The Benefits of Real Estate Investing (00:01:58) Discusses the benefits of investing in real estate, including equity growth, cash flow, tax benefits, and inflation profiting. Tenant-Made Equity Growth (00:02:47) Explains how tenants contribute to the landlord's equity growth through monthly principal pay down. Landlord Tip Inflation (00:06:39) Compares the lack of tipping in the landlord-tenant relationship to other service interactions and discusses the concept of "landlord tip inflation." Review of Home Price Appreciation Forecast (00:09:06) Reviews the accuracy of previous home price appreciation forecasts and discusses the factors influencing the real estate market. Use of Existing Home Sales Numbers (00:13:01) Explains the rationale for using existing home sales numbers in home price appreciation forecasts and discusses the trend of new home construction. Impact of Population Growth on Real Estate (00:17:03) Highlights the impact of population growth on real estate prices and rental demand, emphasizing the significance of demographics in real estate investing. Special Episode Announcement (00:21:33) Announces the upcoming special episode 500 and expresses gratitude to listeners, particularly those from Colombia. Listener Guest Invitation (00:22:43) Encourages listeners to share their experiences and the impact of the show on their lives, inviting them to become guest speakers on the podcast. The surprising correlation between rents and home prices (00:26:07) The correlation between the direction of rents and home prices, and how they move together. Investor purchases breaking records (00:29:21) Insights on the increasing investor purchases, housing shortage, and the impact on the real estate market. Real estate anniversary (00:32:11) Keith Weinhold's heartfelt reflection on his parents' 50th anniversary in the same home, emphasizing the significance of providing people with a home. Commitment and growth in real estate investing (00:33:46) Encouragement to commit to real estate investing, learn, grow your portfolio, and build your empire. Conclusion and disclaimer (00:37:10) Disclaimer and conclusion of the podcast episode. Resources mentioned: Show Page: GetRichEducation.com/491 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  Top Properties & Providers: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREmarketplace.com/Coach Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Keith's personal Instagram: @keithweinhold   Complete episode transcript:   Keith Weinhold (00:00:01) - Welcome to GRE. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Today, get in on a savings account that others fund for you. Landlord Tip Foundation a follow up to see how my last home price appreciation forecast actually performed. The surprising way that rents correlate with home prices. Investors are now feeling a record share of property buys and a heartwarming 50 year anniversary that I'm in awe of today. An get rich education. When you want the best real estate and finance info. The modern internet experience limits your free articles access, and it's replete with paywalls. And you've got pop ups and push notifications and cookies. Disclaimers are. At no other time in history has it been more vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that actually adds no hype value to your life? See, this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor and it's to the point to get the letter. It couldn't be more simple. Text gray to 66866.   Keith Weinhold (00:01:17) - And when you start the free newsletter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate course completely free. It's called the Don't Quit Your Daydream letter and it wires your mind for wealth. Make sure you read it. Text gray to 66866. Text gray 266866.   Corey Coates (00:01:42) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold (00:01:58) - Welcome to GRE, from Italy's Sorrento Peninsula to America's Florida peninsula and across 188 nations worldwide. You're listening to the 491st consecutive weekly installment of the get Rich education podcast. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. And when you invest in real estate with a strategy, which is what we've discussed here for over nine years, you can't help but be a profiteer, even a wild profiteer. It might feel like so much money is falling out of the sky that you might need an umbrella to keep yourself from being hit with it. Raining Benjamins. In fact, with one of the five ways that you expect to be simultaneously paid. All right, let's not focus on the equity growth here, which has been torrid the last four years.   Keith Weinhold (00:02:47) - Not the cash flow, which has been slowed lately, not the tax benefits or the inflation profiting benefit. What else is there that ROA you return on when we talk about so much money falling out of the sky that you catch a case of affluenza, that ROA, it's really one of your quieter profit centers. It is like a savings account that someone else is funding for you. Let's say that you check in at your table of your typical mortgage income property, and it shows that it has $400 of monthly principal pay down. All right. Well, imagine if you had a number of economic actors say you own six rental properties, and then you've got six tenants, six economic actors, perhaps people that you've never met. And all six of them are putting 400 bucks a month into a savings account with your name on it. That is $28,800 a year. That goes into your quote unquote, savings account. Yeah, nearly 30 K a year that your net worth is growing by that you hardly even think about.   Keith Weinhold (00:04:02) - And it's all just part of the profitable background noise that you hardly even hear, along with your leverage depreciation, cash flow taxes and inflation, profiting your tenant builds up your equity. This way, even if your property didn't appreciate at all. And again, in your own primary residence, your ROA is zero because you had to work to pay down your principal, your tenants not doing it for you. Now, this account that they're funding for you, it's not as liquid as a savings account, but it's perhaps more like an old bank CD, a certificate of deposit. It's your money, but you can't access it. In a couple minutes. You would need to do a sale, or you could do a cash out refinance and then it's yours. Your ROA is your tenant made annual principal pay down divided by your equity. Okay. And what if you had more and larger properties? Then this small example I gave you the quietly increases your net worth nearly 30 K every single year. Well, a lot of investors have more or a larger properties where you might have 300 K in annual principal pay down alone.   Keith Weinhold (00:05:22) - The more rental properties you own, the more tenants you have that month in, month out. Every single month they fund a low liquidity savings account with your name on it. And think about it. How did you get in this advantageous position? Well, first you educated yourself. You'll know that they will rent the property from you. And how did you get the property? You don't own an outright. That typically implies too much opportunity cost to have the entire value of your property tied up and paid off. Although they rent the property from you, you got to rent 80% of the money from the bank to buy the property with reap the reward, and you might have to use that umbrella to avoid getting rained on. With the financial windfall. And residential real estate investors have been feeling the rain pouring down for the last three four years. Many commercial real estate investors with short term mortgages don't feel the same way now when you're paid five ways, which has been enhanced by inflation since 2021, you don't really need tip inflation.   Keith Weinhold (00:06:39) - Hunt up of that. In fact, have you ever asked your tenant for a tip, or has a tenant ever paid you a tip for providing housing for them? I wouldn't expect it. It hasn't happened to me. In fact, I've never heard of it. But if. If so, tell us about it right into us at get Rich education. Com slash contact. That's our contact page. A tip for your landlord. Now, think about it this way. You've got all these people asking for tips, really, since the pandemic began. And that's when it really heated up. And then the pandemic receded. And yet the tip requests persist. Baristas, delivery people, fast food workers and the parade of other micro interaction participants that you encounter throughout the day. Those people have no shame in asking you for a tip, and that's even if the service is poor. Now, I'm not saying that you should or shouldn't tip them, but they are micro interaction participants in your life because they're just handing you a coffee, or they're handing you another drink that has too many ice cubes in it.   Keith Weinhold (00:07:55) - On the other hand, what you do is you provide tenants with the roof over their head 30 days in a row, 24 hours a day. By buying the property, you educated yourself. You sunk in a down payment. You build up your own good credit to get a loan to provide housing for a stranger. Well, I guess you'll be asking your tenant a new question each month. Would you like to tip me 18%, 20%, or 25%? Landlord tip inflation? No, I doubt that you're really going to do that. But this is the case that compared to the service level from vendors that you interact with at a lower economic level, you sure could ask for this landlord tip inflation. Let me know if it's ever happened to you now, starting at the end of 2021, near the end of each year here on the show, I have provided you with a home price appreciation forecast for the following year. Well, we have got the results now from last year, so let's check the performance.   Keith Weinhold (00:09:06) - And yeah, don't you wish everyone that made predictions or forecast they reliably review them and followed up with how they actually performed. That's what we're going to do here. Now there are some things that I don't like to predict. In fact, I was the guest on Tom Wheelwright's show at the end of last year as his 2024 Real estate predictions expert. And if you watch that, he really had to press me to get my mortgage rate forecast. I told him back then that 6% by the end of the year was my best guess. But that's all it was not formulaic, not a forecast, and not a 100% confidence level at all. So when we talk about Gray's home price forecasts and our track record, let me share a little context with you here. First, so many other people, including some expert peers that I actually respect. They really got home price appreciation so wrong in this era, especially in 2021. That's when many forecast a home price crash 2021. That's the year we had the highest home price appreciation in a long time, nearly 20% nationally.   Keith Weinhold (00:10:23) - And of course, I have never called for any national home price downturn at all, even a mild one. I'm on record here on the show back in 2020 and 2021. That is when I shared the fact that, look, this administration, our elected officials, whether you like them or not, for better or for worse, they don't want to see people kicked out of their homes and living on the street back then. Remember, like mortgage loan forbearance. But at the end of 2021, I forecast a cooling down of home price appreciation. And I told you then that I expected 9 to 10% for 2022. And at the end of 2022, the result was indeed 10% home price appreciation. And then at the end of 2022, we had already seen mortgage rates spike two and a half times from their lows. And again, many said that was going to catch up with us so that in 2023, home prices would just have to sink. No, they didn't sink. That's when I told you that the only housing crash was going to be a supply crash, and the higher mortgage rates actually correlate with higher home prices, not lower ones.   Keith Weinhold (00:11:39) - That's what historically happens. And I said right here on the show that home prices absolutely can't crash. In fact, they won't fall at all. So 0% was my forecast for last year. No gain, no loss. We now have the number in. Only for last year. Yes, real estate statistics can move slower than an Alaskan glacier. Well, it affirmed that indeed, prices didn't fall. They came in up 3.5% last year. That's the result. We'll round it up to 4%. And we maintain a consistent data set here. The same measuring stick. And that is the Anna's national median single family existing home price. Let me just add that of course I'm neither omniscient nor clairvoyant. I'm giving you the best information my research can provide. It is surely possible that I'll get it wrong sometime. I just haven't yet. Now. And you learn something about real estate here. Why do I use only the existing single family home number? Therefore, why exclude no new build homes? Well, in short, this is how you better compare apples to apples.   Keith Weinhold (00:13:01) - New home construction changes over time. And in fact, the trend for the last decade is that new build homes are shrinking in size and are also being built closer together to each other when they're constructed. So you can see how this disrupts the apples to apples comparison. Ten years ago, the existing single family home was about 1600 square feet and is still 1600 today. But ten years ago, a new build, single family home was about 20 300ft². And it's just 2000ft² today, or 2036 to be exact. So yeah, new build sizes have shrunk 12 to 15% in just the last decade. So this is why I use existing home numbers. And by the way, this shrinking trend, this is the opposite of the early 2000 trend. When you saw a super sizing of homes about 20 years ago, that's when the term McMansion really increased in popularity there about 20 years ago. But it's the opposite now. The shrinking new home trend looks to pick up steam because, like I talked about a few weeks ago, affordability is down.   Keith Weinhold (00:14:19) - Remember, it's worse than it's been since George Jefferson was on television 40 years ago. Don't let's not play The Jeffersons theme music again. The deluxe apartment in the Sky. We played that two weeks ago. Moving on up to the East side. I think that's the music that meant Manhattan's Upper East Side. For those uninitiated on that, that has long been one of New York City's most affluent neighborhoods. Yes. Then the Jeffersons were also funding their landlords return on amortization and more. But getting back to today's new home construction, you can. Therefore, you could say that homes are experiencing shrinkflation today from about 2300ft² to 2000ft² in just a decade, and you can easily see that falling below 2000ft² within two years here. Yes, that type of shrinkflation is more impactful than you paying the same for your shrinking jar of prego spaghetti sauce. Now that you understand why existing home sales numbers are used in Jerry's Home price depreciation forecasts sourced by the Nar, you'll recall that at the end of last year, I forecast 4% home price appreciation for this year.   Keith Weinhold (00:15:43) - We'll check back on that in one year's time. Now, that's amidst the fact that I understand we've got high asset prices all over the place right now, almost everywhere you look, a record high US stock market near record highs in Bitcoin and near record highs in home values. Yes, more home price appreciation is likely. In fact, real estate investor purchases are breaking records. I've got more to tell you about that later. In fact, there is even more fuel being poured out of the housing record right now. And this was breaking news a couple of weeks ago in our Don't Quit Your Daydream newsletter. So if you're a reader, you saw it. And that is the fact that population growth drives real estate prices and rents. News broke that we just experienced the largest one year population increase in all of American history, with an astounding 3.8 million. Our population was up 3.8 million people last year, more than ever in previous census estimates of a 1.6 million person increase had underestimated immigration flows. This was reported in Newsweek and elsewhere.   Keith Weinhold (00:17:03) - Now, look, I've been directly investing in real estate since 2002, and I have rarely encountered a supply demand inflection point like this that requires such attention from you, locating an available property that is already more elusive than finding the missing car keys, and it's going to get even more scarce. This has the appearance of an astounding real estate investment window that we are now entering. See, in most asset classes, the future is largely unknown. Like in stocks, futures markets, derivatives, bonds, crypto, gold, oil, all kinds of other commodities. There are so many unknowns there. And real estate has unknowns too. But there are no three giant certainties for residential real estate in America going forward. Number one is more inflation. Number two is a prolonged scarce housing supply. And thirdly, it is astoundingly good demographics that fuel more demand. This third one is newer. And this is what I'm highlighting here. The demographics were already good, but it's just been turned up another notch. All three of these things are inevitable, and so many people try to predict the future and they fail.   Keith Weinhold (00:18:30) - But these three profitable real estate tailwinds for investors are as assured. I mean, there is a third. Is you forgetting someone's name immediately after they introduce themselves? Yeah. The way to get around that is to recite their name back out loud as soon as you meet them. But what I'm getting at is that this is not hyperbolic to call this potentially a once in a decade opportunity. Other high income countries like Japan and so much of Western Europe, they are sweating buckets, thinking about how their nation's aging populations are sending them over a demographic cliff. And besides just the magnitude of the population growth, again, the biggest one year increase in American history, understand that America's largest group of immigrants are working age producers aged 25 to 54, and they are overwhelmingly renters, not homeowners. So this is your surge in rental demand and this immigration surge. It may or may not last, depending on policy, regulation and the presidential election outcome late this year., you know, Jeff Bezos discussed this one time.   Keith Weinhold (00:19:55) - He discussed about how everyone wants to know the future and understand this. You already know more about the future than what you think, whether it's about your future business life or your investing life or your family life, or the way that you're thinking about technology in autonomous cars or flying cars, in machine learning and artificial intelligence, you know, with things that a lot of people, they ask themselves a question about the future, and they ask, what will be different in ten years? Well, there's nothing wrong with that question. In fact, it's a perfectly good question. But instead, ask yourself the opposite. What will be the same in ten years? Yeah. What will be the same in ten years? Now, black swans aside, in real estate investing, it is indeed those three things more inflation, a prolonged scarce housing supply, and astoundingly good demographics for rental demand. That's what will be the same. And now you have the basis for a sustainable wealth strategy. The bottom line is that even if it comes to a sudden stop, the addition of an all time record 3.8 million Americans in one year, that has left an indelible mark on real estate demand, the economy, and nearly all of society.   Keith Weinhold (00:21:33) - Residential real estate investors are going to own a scarce asset that everyone will need. You're listening to get resuscitation. It's episode 491, and that means that we're just nine weeks away from what is going to be a special, unforgettable episode 500. It's an episode that you probably want to listen to more than one. Coming up in two months on May 6th. And I'll tell you, I really know how to put the performance pressure on myself for May 6th, don't I?, hey, I really want to give a shout out to our great listeners in Columbia. Last month, I spent nine days in Colombia and eight days in Ecuador exploring a coffee farm, checking out urban sites and doing some Andes mountaineering, taking in the best of steak, coffee, chocolate and fruits to. And I've got to say, when Colombians learned that I was there, you Colombians were amazing at reaching out, making me feel welcome, telling me how the show has helped you. Ecuador. And it wasn't quite the same. I love you and your beautiful nation, but frankly, I didn't hear much from the Ecuadorian listeners.   Keith Weinhold (00:22:43) - I don't know why there was a big difference there, but I'm appreciative of some of the South American listenership for a show that's based on about 95% US real estate here. Speaking of listeners and the show, at times, we have listeners here on the show. If gray has impacted your life and you'd like to come on the show and tell us about it, I and our audience like hearing from you and how an abundance mindset and real estate investing has changed your life right into us. At our contact page again, get rich education. Com slash contact and tell us about yourself. We've had some really cool listener guests here on the show, like Grammy Award winning music producer Blake La Grange, the inventor of a home fitness system, Sean Finnegan, and even my former coworker that used to have a neighboring cubicle right next to me, back when I had a day job in a fertile who became a listener. If you think you're just maybe a boring accountant with a spouse and two kids, but Jerry has influenced you, well, you're exactly who we want to hear from a write in and let us know.   Keith Weinhold (00:23:53) - Coming up next, hear the surprising correlation between rents and home prices. Then investor purchases are breaking records in more. I'm Keith Weinhold, you're listening to get rich education. You know, I'll just tell you, for the most passive part of my real estate investing, personally, I put my own dollars with Freedom Family Investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in returns, or better than a bank savings account, up to 12%. Their minimums are as low as 25 K. You don't even need to be accredited for some of them. It's all backed by real estate and that kind of love. How the tax benefit of doing this can offset capital gains and your W-2 jobs income. And they've always given me exactly their stated return paid on time. So it's steady income, no surprises while I'm sleeping or just doing the things I love. For a little insider tip, I've invested in their power fund to get going on that text family to 66866. Oh, and this isn't a solicitation.   Keith Weinhold (00:25:01) - If you want to invest where I do, just go ahead and text family to 66866. Role under this specific expert with income property, you need. Ridge lending Group NMLS 42056. In gray history from beginners to veterans, they provided our listeners with more mortgages than anyone. It's where I get my own loans for single family rentals up to four Plex's. Start your pre-qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. They'll even customize a plan tailored to you for growing your portfolio. Start at RidgeLendingGroup.com. RidgeLendingGroup.com.   Matt Bowles (00:25:48) - Hey, everybody, this is Matt Bowles from Maverick Investor Group. You're listening to Get Rich Education with Keith Weinhold. And don't quit your daydreaming.   Keith Weinhold (00:26:07) - Welcome back to Get Rich Education. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. As I like to say, history over hunches, it's easy to have a hunch about how something works in real estate. But take a look at history and see what really happens. History over hunches. So to that point, you might be surprised at the correlation between the direction of rents with respect to home prices.   Keith Weinhold (00:26:31) - Now, the cost of rent has grown over the last 12 years. That's not news to anybody, but many think that rents and home prices move inversely. If demand for home purchases falls, then rents rise, right? No. Instead, they move together. When rents move up, home prices tend to move up to. Rents rose gradually from 2012 to 2020, and they rose rapidly since 2020. Well, home prices, they behaved in a similar way. They also rose modestly from 2012 to 2020, and they rose rapidly since then. Rinse and home prices have therefore been positively correlated. And in fact, I've been investing long enough to remember that when the home price bubble burst from 2008 to 2010, where rents fell a little. Then to an underscore my point some more, both rents and prices bottomed together around 2011. Yes, I think most real estate investors believe that this positive correlation is less likely than that. A movie about Barbie could ever reach $1 billion in sales. Well, that happened too.   Keith Weinhold (00:28:01) - So I simply look at what really occurs when I do my research. It's history over hunches, and that's why these should not be mind blowing discoveries. Just look at what really happens. So if your tenant balks that rents are rising, well, you know what? Home prices are probably rising to the bottom line here with rents and prices being correlated, is that whether it's to rent or own, wait a million homes when the economy grows, that is the real history over any other hunch. Now, as a wealth building show here I am empowering you with the information that you need to improve yourself. You can't follow the herd. You've got two choices. Either you can be a conformer or you can build wealth. Your wealth is not coming from anyone else. Chances are a rich uncle won't be helping you. In fact, getting an inheritance remains a rarity in the US yet as of 2022, data from the Federal Reserve shows only about a fifth of American households had ever received an inheritance at all. And it gets worse.   Keith Weinhold (00:29:21) - According to NYU, the most common inheritance amount is between 10,000 and $50,000. Yeah, that's enough to fund your life for one average month, or maybe one good month, depending on how you're living. The good news is that great listeners and others are getting the message, because last month, Redfin reported that real estate investor purchases are breaking records. Yes, investors bought 26% of the country's most affordable homes in the latest quarter ended, and that is the highest share on record ever. We've got all these on record ever sort of things that we're talking about on the show today. Yes, Redfin let us know that low priced homes are increasingly attractive to investors in today's environment. Redfin agents in Florida and California report that investors are the ones hungry for homes, but they can't find properties to purchase due to an ongoing housing shortage. But we can help you with available supply here at gray. But these overall record investor purchase figures they are, according to a Redfin analysis of county home purchase records across 39 of the most populous US metro areas, not just a couple states.   Keith Weinhold (00:30:45) - There are a lot of investors out there fighting for properties, said a Redfin premier agent in Orlando, Florida. There just aren't enough properties to go around, which is putting a cap on how many homes investors can buy. In fact, single family homes represented over two thirds of investor. Purchases. So congratulations, you are acting. You are making it happen in this canyon, this chasm, this divide that's opening up between the haves and have nots, shrinking the middle class. You are getting on the right side of that. I want to tell you more about being an investor shortly. But first, I have somewhat of a heartfelt real estate anniversary for you, and it has to do with my own family. March 5th, 1974 is a special day. You might note that tomorrow will be the 50th anniversary of that special date. Now look, I can remember every single place that I've ever lived. The modest single family home that I grew up in, college dorm rooms, a pathetic pool house, efficiency apartment in Westchester, Pennsylvania, a condo, a house as an adult.   Keith Weinhold (00:32:11) - Can you can you remember every place that you've ever lived? There's a good chance that you can. It's how intimate, really and important real estate is to your life. And think about how significant you are. You're providing people with a home that they will always remember. This is key. Think about how this contrasts. If you supplied the world with software packages or patio furniture, that stuff is forgettable. You're doing something significant when you help abolish the term slumlord and provide other people with that clean, safe, affordable, functional housing. Well, tomorrow my parents, Curt and Penny Weinhold, will have lived in the same home for 50 years. 50 years in the same home for my parents in sleepy and remote Appalachia. Coudersport, Pennsylvania. I asked my dad about that recently, and he said that when the paperwork with the lawyer was finished, he recalled walking into the house and happily shouting. He was tired of renting. When I visit my parents annually in Pennsylvania, I am still sleeping in the same bedroom of the same home, on the same block in the same small town where they still live in the first home that I ever remember.   Keith Weinhold (00:33:46) - Great job Mom and dad. You committed. You married before you had my brother and I. You're still happy, you're still healthy, and you're still together. You're even in the same home I grew up in. I'm in awe. I won the parent lottery five decades in the same home. You know where the creaky spots in the floor are of that old Victorian place. And when my brother is there, the four of us know right where to sit in our same spots at that same kitchen table. And, you know, as tomorrow is an amazing 50 years there. There are some lessons in this. Find out what the great things in life are, learn about them and commit to them. Like me trying to be the highest man on earth recently, or you buying the property or getting married. So many of the most successful people get diligent and learn and then make lasting commitments. Being a real estate investing devotee is a commitment. Each property that you add is a small commitment itself. I encourage you to act if it resonates with you.   Keith Weinhold (00:35:03) - Learn and grow your portfolio. There are always going to be naysayers that try to hold you to the confines of conformity and mediocrity. So fear, uncertainty. Telling someone that times are uncertain is like telling someone that they're breathing air. Well of course, no kidding. Each condition, uncertainty and breathing air have persisted every day of your entire life. In the year 1920, ten kilos of gold would buy you an average home. Today, ten kilos of gold will buy you an average home. Home prices aren't high so much as the value of the dollar is simply down. Homes are not overvalued by the most timeless financial measure. Gold mortgage rates near 7% are still below. Their long term average. So go forth and build your empire. You can either teach a man to fish or give a man a fish. Here at Jerry, we do both. We teach them in or women to fish at get worse education. Com which this show is a part of and then a great marketplace. Com we give a man a fish.   Keith Weinhold (00:36:30) - We have the supply of housing. You have access to the national providers with the lower cost real estate that makes the best rentals. And starting about two years ago, we added free investment coaching here, giving you that fish and making it easier than ever to get started or get your next property. Play a game worth winning and commit to something worthwhile. If you haven't yet, I encourage you to look into that at GREmarketplace.com. Until next week, I'm.   Speaker 3 (00:37:03) - Your host, Keith Weinhold.   Keith Weinhold (00:37:05) - Don't quit your day dream.   Speaker 4 (00:37:10) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of yet Rich Education, LLC exclusively.   Keith Weinhold (00:37:38) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com.

Get Rich Education
489: Strategic Loan Options for Real Estate Investors, Mortgage Rate Forecast

Get Rich Education

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 19, 2024 40:55


You'll get an exact mortgage rate prediction from the President of the lending company that's provided investors with more financial freedom than anyone in the nation.  Learn how to best access your equity, yet keep your low mortgage rate first loan untouched. In this Get Rich Education podcast episode, host Keith Weinhold and guest Caeli Ridge, President of Ridge Lending Group, delve into the direction of mortgage rates.  They highlight the importance of understanding today's environment and discuss refinancing opportunities in the current market.  Caeli outlines various loan products available to investors and predicts over 50% of appraisals now come in high, indicating strong future valuations.  She also forecasts higher mortgage rates to persist, with a possible Fed Funds Rate reduction by June and a 6.125% rate for 30-year fixed mortgages, non-OO, with 25% down, by the end of 2024.  The episode emphasizes education and strategic planning in real estate investment. I get my own loans at Ridge. You can too at RidgeLendingGroup.com Timestamps: The impact of inflation on real estate investing (00:00:00) Discusses leveraging properties to increase wealth, the relationship between mortgage rates and real estate, and the impact of inflation on property values. Understanding the importance of mortgage rates (00:03:52) Explores the neutral relationship real estate investors have with mortgage rates, the impact of mortgage rates on home affordability, and the significance of current mortgage rates. Historical perspective on home price affordability (00:06:18) Provides insights into the historical trends in home affordability, comparing past and current median home prices and the impact of inflation on home values. The power of leverage in borrowing (00:10:14) Illustrates the impact of inflation on loan principal balances and monthly mortgage payments, emphasizing the benefits of optimizing borrowing. Mortgage rate prediction and refinancing trends (00:16:57) Discusses the future direction of mortgage rates, refinancing trends, and the importance of considering interest rates in the context of overall investment strategies. Explanation of high points charged on investment property loans (00:23:12) Provides an explanation for the high points charged on investment property loans, related to the servicing of mortgage-backed securities and the absence of prepayment penalties. Accessing Equity with HELOC and HE Loan (00:24:21) Discussion on accessing equity using keylock and HE loan, including LTV ratios and interest rate comparisons. Trade-offs Between HELOC and HE Loan (00:25:27) Comparison of trade-offs between keylock and HE loan, including flexibility and interest payment structures. Considerations for Second Mortgages (00:26:36) Exploration of the benefits of having a second mortgage as an option and the potential drawbacks related to minimum draw requirements. Blended Mortgage Rates (00:27:56) Explanation of how to calculate blended mortgage rates based on the balances and interest rates of first and second mortgages. Appetite for Adjustable Rate Mortgages (00:28:44) Assessment of the current environment for adjustable rate mortgages and comparison with fixed-rate mortgages. Obstacles for New and Repeat Investors (00:29:45) Common obstacles faced by new and repeat real estate investors, including understanding investment goals and managing debt-to-income ratios. Forecast for Mortgage Rates (00:33:45) Prediction for future mortgage rates based on inflation indicators and the potential impact of the Fed's decisions. Loan Types Offered by Ridge Lending Group (00:35:54) Overview of the various loan types offered by Ridge Lending Group, including Fannie and Freddie loans, non-QM loans, and commercial loans. Resources and Tools for Investors (00:38:03) Information about free resources and tools available on the Ridge Lending Group website, including simulators and educational content. Conclusion and Recommendation (00:39:38) Summary of the discussion with Caeli Ridge and a recommendation to explore the services offered by Ridge Lending Group for real estate financing needs. Resources mentioned: Show Page: GetRichEducation.com/489 Ridge Lending Group: RidgeLendingGroup.com Call 855-74-RIDGE For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  Top Properties & Providers: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREmarketplace.com/Coach Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Keith's personal Instagram: @keithweinhold   Complete episode transcript:   Keith Weinhold (00:00:00) - Welcome to GRE. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. A new take on how to profit from inflation. The best strategies for accessing equity from your property while leaving your low rate loan in place. A surprising trend with real estate appraisals. Then the president of one of the most prominent national mortgage companies joins me to give a firm mortgage rate prediction today on get rich education. If you like the Get Rich Education podcast, you're going to love our Don't Quit Your Daydream newsletter. No, a eye here I write every word of the letter myself. It wires your mind for wealth. It helps you make money in your sleep and updates you on vital real estate investing trends. It's free sign up egg get rich education.com/letter. It's real content that makes a real difference in your life. Spice with a dash of humor rather than living below your means, learn how to grow your means right now. You can also easily get the letter by texting GRE to 66866. Text GRE to 66866.   Speaker 2 (00:01:11) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world.   Speaker 2 (00:01:18) - This is Get Rich Education.   Keith Weinhold (00:01:27) - Welcome to Gary from Oak Park Heights, Minneapolis, to Crown Heights, Brooklyn in New York City and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and this is Get Rich education. When you have that epiphany, that leverage creates wealth, it can be enough to make you want to be the town iconoclast. Walk around, beat your chest, and boldly proclaim that financially free beats debt free. You might remember that I helped drive that point home a few weeks ago when I talked about the old fourplex owner, Patrick, who owned his fourplex next to mine years ago. He wanted to pay his down and I wanted to leverage mine up. I told you then that rushing to pay off one property by making extra payments on the principal is like drilling a deep hole into one property. And the deeper you drill, the more likely that hole is to cave in. Your return goes down and now you've got more of your prosperity tied up in just one property, just one neighborhood and just one market.   Keith Weinhold (00:02:34) - The most sure fire way to wealth, and exactly what wealthy people do, is optimize and almost maximize the number of properties that you own. And as long as you buy right as they inevitably inflate, just keep borrowing against them. And that way you never have to pay capital gains tax either. And that goes beyond just real estate. That's assets of many types. You'll want to own more assets. The way to do that is with more loans. And paradoxically, that is why the richest people have the most debt. As you watch your debt column grow, watch your column grow even faster. And as we're talking about mortgages and the direction of interest rates today, us as real estate investors, you and I, we have a somewhat neutral relationship with mortgage rates. Yeah, it's often a neutral relationship. Now, prospective homebuyers, they often want mortgage rates to be low. Sellers often want rates to be low two so that they'll have more home bidders, legacy landlords, ones that own a bunch of property and they're not buying anymore.   Keith Weinhold (00:03:52) - They often want mortgage rates to be high because it hurts first time homebuyer affordability, and then it keeps the rents high and it keeps the occupancy high. And then you and I see we both own real estate. We also look to opportunistically put more in our portfolio. Well then we want rates to be high in a sense and low in a sense too. So you might have relative neutrality, feeling aloof about it all because you're thinking about it from both sides. But in any case, we can always predict the future. But the one thing that you know for sure is what you have now. A lot of people don't optimize their potential for what they have now. Instead, they speculate about the future. Now, one thing a lot of people have now is so many Americans are still loving their 3% and 4% mortgage rates they locked in 2 or 3 years ago, and they're refusing to give it up. However, over the past two years, when the number of real estate listings were at historic lows, a lot of life changing events have occurred in the past two years 7 million newborn babies with a need for a larger sized home and a desire to get out of the starter home.   Keith Weinhold (00:05:11) - Also in the last two years, 3 million marriages, including some of those marriages, are among older couples who now need to sell a home that can help solve the market. And then, of course, most home sellers. They also become home buyers. Next, they need another place to live. So home sellers, they often don't add a net one to the supply. We had a million and a half divorces, 7 million Americans turning 65 years old that might want to trade down during the retirement years and also during the last two years. Consider that there were 4 million deaths and 50 million job changes, some of those inconsequential, while others with fundamentally changed commuting patterns. So the point here is that life moves on. For some, though still a minority, but a growing minority, it is time to give up the three and 4% mortgage rate. Still not enough of them, but for better or worse, that is what it's going to take to move this market and put some available supply out there.   Keith Weinhold (00:06:18) - Now, today we have apparently finally just come off this period where home price of. Affordability had hit 40 year lows for 40 years for decades. Again, with low affordability, you dislike that if you're a home buyer or seller, you might feel neutral about low affordability as a landlord or a real estate investor because it makes your new purchases less affordable. But it keeps your renters as renters when you buy that income property. From an affordability standpoint, the very best time to buy was 2013. Yep, 2013 is when prices hadn't fully recovered from the GFC and mortgage rates had fallen dramatically. Now, to open up that range in years, from an affordability standpoint, it was just a sensational time to buy a home or property from 2009 to 2021, just historically extraordinary, that sensational affordability level during that decade or so, 2009 to 2021, that added to the exceptional rise in home values over end since that time. But yeah, a few months ago, affordability reached its worst level in 40 years and it has since improved.   Keith Weinhold (00:07:43) - I mean, 40 year lows in affordability reach then in 1984 and what happened in 1984, that is when Ronald Reagan defeated Walter Mondale for his second presidential term. Steve Jobs launched the Macintosh personal computer. John Schnatter opened the first Papa John's store in Indiana. LeBron James was born in 1984, and on television running were The Cosby Show and The Dukes of Hazzard. Hey, if you were alive then and you watch those shows, um, I know you wouldn't confess to watching Charles in Charge back then, and you'll never get back those socially redeeming hours that you spent watching Punky Brewster, and you would not admit to doing that either. What is this show, the Jeffersons still on TV in 1984? Look into that. Yeah. You know, that was kind of a real estate ish show. The deluxe apartment in the sky. Yes. It was on then. Yeah. Sherman Hemsley, Isabel Sanford Q that up.   Speaker UU (00:08:55) - Where we're moving on now? All up to this island, to a deluxe apartment in the sky.   Keith Weinhold (00:09:06) - Yeah, they even had the episode where the landlord came over and threatened not to renew their lease. I'll tell you. Has there ever been a television show in history where the landlord was depicted as a good guy? I mean, a landlord in television, they're always cast is a money hungry bad guy that won't fix anything, or is just trying to unscrupulously kick out the tenant, a slack jawed slumlord, every single time. I never really understood that show's theme music, either Beans or Burden on the grill or something. Let's get back to mortgage loans. Understand this. It might be in a way that, okay, you've never thought about it before. It's the power of leverage in borrowing. Now, you probably won't hold any 30 year fixed rate loan all 30 years in reality, but they'll make this effect clear. Let's just act like you have done this on a property. Now the median home price is near 400 K today. But what was it not 40 years ago, but in this case 30 years ago? All right.   Keith Weinhold (00:10:14) - So 1994, per the Fred numbers, which are sourced from the census and HUD, it was 130 K. Yes, a 130 K median priced home in 1994. So then if you put a 20% down payment on that property, you'd have a loan principal balance of 104 K. Now imagine it was an interest only loan somehow, and you still just owed a 104 K balance on that home today, whose median price is up to 400 K. Well, that 104 K. That just seems like a little math that you could almost swat away. I mean, this is how inflation makes the numbers of yesteryear feel tiny. But now if you're 104 K loan were an amortizing loan and the principal were being paid down to hopefully all principal pay down made by the tenant. During all those years, mortgage rates were 9% back then. So if you were making the final payment today on what's now still a median priced home, today your mortgage payment would just be 837 bucks a month. It feels like nothing. Inflation benefited you both ways on the total principal balance and the monthly payment.   Keith Weinhold (00:11:35) - Just feeling lighter and lighter and lighter in inflation adjusted terms now. And if your mortgage rate were 6% on that property, your payment would only be 623 bucks. You might have refinanced to something like that. I mean, 623 bucks. That is lower than the average new car payment today of 726. But if you had not gotten that loan back in 1994 and instead would have paid all cash for the 130 K property, were you 130 K all cash that was put into the property back then? Well, that would have had the purchasing power of today's approximately 400 K reflected in the price of today's median priced home. But to take it back ten years further to 1984, the George Jefferson year, the median home price was 80 K and your loan would be 60 4k. I mean, these numbers feel like little toys or almost lunch money or something. So this is the power of optimizing your borrowing and perhaps but not quite maximizing your borrowing power because that does risk over leverage. That is the inflation profiting benefit that you're feeling right there.   Keith Weinhold (00:12:59) - Coming up in just a few minutes, the president of one of the most prominent national mortgage companies for investor loans will be here with me. We're going to talk about mortgage rates some more, the overall temperature of the mortgage market. And I expect that she'll give a firm mortgage rate prediction for where we're going to be at year end, because she's done that with us before. They see so many investor loans in there at their lending companies. They've really got a great pulse on the market. We have set up the makeshift gray studio again for yet another week. Here is this week I'm in Nevada, where I will be the best man at my brother's wedding. I have been on the road a lot lately. That's what a geography guy like me does. Gotta get out and see the world. Life is meant to be lived, not postpone. Before we discuss both general and some intermediate Murray's concepts shortly. If you happen to be new to real estate investing. And you just like to listen to that one episode that tells you, step by step, how to get started and how to build your credit score and make an offer on a property, and best navigate the inspection process and the property appraisal inside the management agreement and more.   Keith Weinhold (00:14:15) - You can find that on get Rich Education podcast episode 368. It's simply called How to Buy Your First Rental Property. More next. I'm Keith Reinhold, you're listening to get Rich education. You know, I'll just tell you, for the most passive part of my real estate investing, personally, I put my own dollars with Freedom Family Investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in returns are better than a bank savings account up to 12%. Their minimums are as low as 25 K. You don't even need to be accredited for some of them. It's all backed by real estate and that kind of love. How the tax benefit of doing this can offset capital gains and your W-2 jobs income. And they've always given me exactly their stated return paid on time. So it's steady income, no surprises while I'm sleeping or just doing the things I love. For a little insider tip, I've invested in their power fund to get going on that text family to 66866. Oh, and this isn't a solicitation.   Keith Weinhold (00:15:24) - If you want to invest where I do, just go ahead and text family to six, 686, six. Role under the specific expert with income property, you need Ridge Lending Group and MLS for 256. In gray history, from beginners to veterans, they provided our listeners with more mortgages than anyone. It's where I get my own loans for single family rentals up to four plex's. Start your pre-qualification and chat with President Charlie Ridge. Personally, though, even customized plan tailored to you for growing your portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending group.com. Ridge lending group.com.   Speaker 3 (00:16:12) - Hi, this is Tom Hopkins, and I can't tell you how smart you are to be with get rich education and make these ideas you.   Keith Weinhold (00:16:32) - What is the future direction of mortgage rates? How do you qualify for more mortgage loans at the best terms with the lowest interest rates, and Americans have at near record equity levels in their properties? So what's the best way to access that equity yet? Keep your low rate mortgage in place. We're answering all of that today with a company president that's created more financial freedom through real estate than any other lender in the entire nation.   Keith Weinhold (00:16:57) - That is, the top tier and eponymous ridge lending group is time for a big welcome back to Charlie Ridge. Keith, you flatter me. Thank you very much.   Caeli Ridge (00:17:07) - I'm very happy to be here, sir. Good to see you.   Keith Weinhold (00:17:09) - Well, you help us here because debt and loan are our favored four letter words around here at gray. Can you help us efficiently optimize them both, Charlie? Interest rates have just been on so many people's minds. Shortly after, they had their all time low in January of 2021, and they since rose and then have settled down. Charlie, I've been trying to think through myself why people seem to put this over emphasis on the interest rate now. It's surely important. It is your cost of money. But the way I've thought that people overemphasize the rate is because maybe people love to discuss the direction of interest rates, even more so than real estate prices in rents is because prices and rents nearly always go up in interest rates can go up and down. So therefore it's maybe more interesting for people to talk about.   Keith Weinhold (00:17:57) - I also think about how rates sort of tap into that human fear of loss by paying interest, trumping the triumph of gain through cash flow or appreciation. And then maybe as well, it's because higher mortgage rates, they mean higher rates of all types which permeate into all of one's life's debt. So these are my thoughts about why people maybe put an over emphasis on mortgage interest rates. What are your thoughts?   Caeli Ridge (00:18:23) - I'm sure there's probably something to that. And you're right, Keith. Interest rates are always the hot topic. Everybody wants to talk about interest rates. I think that overall though, it is a lack of education and there's a psychology to it. You and I have talked about interest rates at nauseam over the years, and I do understand, but I think you and I agree, because we live in this space and we're constantly looking at the math. They are probably third or fourth on the list of priorities. When you're deciding on if this investment is valid. For fitting into my goal box, I think it's more about getting information out there and informing the masses about interest rates, and doing that math to make sure that they're not just pigeonholing themselves into keeping a 3% interest rate, or not expanding their portfolio because they're afraid of giving up what they have and not really realizing the power of the equity, the tax deduction, the rent increases.   Caeli Ridge (00:19:15) - All of those variables are often ignored when people start talking about interest rates, until you start to have that reasonable, rational conversation that helps them identify what the math is. Because the math won't lie, right? The math will not lie.   Keith Weinhold (00:19:29) - Yeah, that's right. Things more important than interest rate with an investment property might be the price you're paying for that property, or the level of rent that's there, or even maybe knowing you already have a good property manager that you trust in that market where that property is. But of course, rates matter somewhat. Now we're going to get a future looking prediction from you later. But your last mortgage rate prediction, Charlie, you may not remember the details of it. It was made here on the show in November of 2022. That's when rates were 7%. Back at that time, you said that rates should keep climbing but at a slower pace, and that happened. And you predicted the peak by spring of 2023 of 7.625%. What happened is in October of 2023, they hit 7.8% per Freddie Mac.   Keith Weinhold (00:20:17) - So you almost completely nailed it because most everyone believes that that was the peak for this cycle. And if so, you're within a few months in just 2/10 of 1% of identifying the peak.   Caeli Ridge (00:20:32) - Thank you Keith. I appreciate that acknowledgement. I get it right a lot. My crystal ball has been broken several times over, especially the last couple of years, so I'll want to acknowledge that too. I pay attention to the fed and as a good friend of mine is always saying, don't fight the fed if you are listening to what they're saying, actually listening to the words that are coming out of their mouths, it's not too terribly hard to kind of predict where we're going to be in certain milestones of any given year. So I do have a good prediction for this year. We'll share later. As you said, rates are not completely irrelevant. I just want to impress upon your listeners that they really should be looking at the investment holistically, and not just laser focused on that interest rate. There's more to it.   Keith Weinhold (00:21:15) - That was excellent. You have more audacity than me when it comes to predicting interest rates. It's a business I typically stay out of, so I'm going to outsource that to you later. I'll predict things like real estate prices, but I think rates are notoriously difficult. And what's happened with rates now that they have come off their peak substantially from back in October of 2023. What's happened with the refinance business, is that something that's picked up again there?   Caeli Ridge (00:21:39) - Yeah, we're starting to see a bit more. I would say that last year refi numbers were down right for obvious reasons. But we are seeing some more business in the refinance department. I think depending on the individual and largely the strategy of the investment, the long term versus the mid-term versus the short term, we're seeing a little bit more on the refi side for the short term rentals than we are in the long term. But overall, yes, I would agree that they're starting to pick up. I may mention to Keith it might be useful for the listeners.   Caeli Ridge (00:22:06) - So while I agree, we've seen that interest rates started on their descent, which was great news, everybody was excited to see that. We're still finding that the points that are being secured or paid on, especially investment property loans, are still on the high end of the spectrum. And for those that aren't aware of the why behind that, how might be important. Just to mention that when we talk about mortgage backed securities, the overall servicing of these mortgage backed securities that are bought and sold and traded on on the secondary markets, they're pretty smart in forecasting when rates are high, what happens to those mortgages? When they come back down, they start to refinance, right? They start to pay off. And the servicing rights of these loans take 2 to 3 years before they're even profitable. So the servicers and the secondary markets know that they have to charge those extra points to hedge their losses, because when the loans that they're paying for and servicing today are going to pay off in six months or 12 months, they're going to be at a loss.   Caeli Ridge (00:23:01) - If it takes them 24 to 36 months to be profitable. That's why investors are seeing especially investors are seeing extra points being charged on the loans that they're securing today.   Keith Weinhold (00:23:12) - Oh, that's a great explanation. And really, this is because there's no prepayment penalty associated with residential mortgage loans in the United States typically. So therefore, the person that's on the back end of these loans, the investor there needs to be sure that they're compensated somehow when one goes ahead and maybe refinances out of their loan at a presumably lower interest rate, maybe in as little as 12 months or so.   Caeli Ridge (00:23:39) - Yes, sir. Exactly right. Yeah. And prepayment penalties on conventional. There are no prepayment penalties on conventional. Just to clarify on a non QM product which of course we have to, you know, debt service coverage ratio products etc. on non-owner occupied those typically will have prepayment penalties. But the Fannie Freddie stuff, the GSE stuff no prepay ever.   Keith Weinhold (00:23:57) - Now the rates have come down presumably off their peak in this cycle. You know, I think a lot of people wonder about all right now, what's a prudent way for me to harvest my equity since we have near-record equity levels in property and yet keep my low rate mortgage in place? I think a lot of people don't even understand that you can do that and take a second mortgage to access some of that dead equity.   Keith Weinhold (00:24:20) - What are your thoughts?   Caeli Ridge (00:24:21) - I love a keylock in general. We do now have one of our newer product lines is a second lien lock. We have two options there. Both of them cap at 70% LTV. That's combined loan to value. So all you need to do to figure out what you're going to have access to is take the value that you think the property would appraise for times 70% from that number, subtract the first lien balance, and that will give you what your line on a key lock. Secondly, and position you lock would be. And I love it.   Keith Weinhold (00:24:49) - All right. So therefore if one has 50% equity in a property they could access 20% more up to that 70% CLTV. That combined loan to value ratio between your first mortgage and your second mortgage, which might take the form of a keylock a home equity line of credit.   Caeli Ridge (00:25:07) - Perfectly said. We also have second lien he loans worth mention. He loan is really exactly the same thing as your first lien mortgage. It's a fixed rate.   Caeli Ridge (00:25:15) - Second it's just in second lean position 30 year fixed. Those go to 85% CLTV. So you get quite a bit more leverage. But the rates are going to be on the 1,213% range.   Keith Weinhold (00:25:27) - That's interesting. Tell us about some more of the trade offs between the key lock, where we typically have a fixed rate period in a floating period afterwards, and the he loan some more of those trade offs as we devise our strategy.   Caeli Ridge (00:25:41) - Yeah. The key lock is variable right. The interest rate can change. As you said. The reason I prefer the He lock, if the numbers made sense, is that you're only paying interest on monies that you're using at that point in time. So if you had $100,000 key lock and you're only using 20,000 of it for whatever investment purposes or whatever, then you're paying interest just on the 20 that he loan is exactly as you would expect. You're getting all of that money at once, and you will be paying interest on all of it, whether or not you're using it.   Caeli Ridge (00:26:10) - There's less flexibility on a key loan. While it does provide extra leverage, I do generally prefer that he lock.   Keith Weinhold (00:26:18) - Now, sometimes a question that I've asked myself in the past, Charlie, when I was new as an investor, is sort of why wouldn't I take a second mortgage? He lock or he loan? Because I don't necessarily have to draw against it, but it might be good for me to have it as an option just to be sure that it's there.   Caeli Ridge (00:26:36) - Absolutely. Especially the key lock, because like I said, I will not pay interest on anything you're not using. And to have it when the time comes, right. If you want to be prepared, which I think is huge. We both agree there. The one thing I would mention about that though, is oftentimes on the helocs there will be a minimum draw at closing. You can put it right back after closing, but chances are there's going to be a 50,000 or 100,000 minimum draw, depending on what the line limit is.   Caeli Ridge (00:27:01) - Maybe 75% of the entire limit is what the minimum draw would be. But again, you can put it right back after closing. So maybe you pay 30 days of interest on that before you're able to to stick it back in the lock. Otherwise, it's one of my favorite strategies for investors and having access to those funds when the time comes.   Keith Weinhold (00:27:20) - That's an interesting piece there. So you as an investor is you're devising your strategy as you're looking at the equity position in your own home as well as your rental properties. Maybe you're looking at a low rate of, say, you have a 4% mortgage loan, but you've had a bloated equity position, and you go ahead and you take out a second mortgage in any of the forms of Charlie is talking about. And that second mortgage has, say, a 10% interest rate. Well, you don't simply take the 4% on your first loan and your 10% on the second and average it and say, well, now I'm paying 7%. Of course, you have to wait those averages.   Keith Weinhold (00:27:56) - It's pretty likely that you have a higher mortgage balance on your first loan than your second loan. So depending on their balances, therefore, if your first mortgage has a 4% interest rate and your second mortgage has a 10% interest rate, you're blended rate might be something like five and a half.   Caeli Ridge (00:28:10) - Exactly right. And there's all kinds of tools and calculators online. If somebody wanted to check that out you can find them very easily. Just the weighted average of mortgage rates. And you can plug in your numbers. It'll tell you exactly if you're using this amount or this amount or whatever it is, what your weighted average would be.   Keith Weinhold (00:28:27) - Yeah, definitely important for you as an investor checking your arbitrage and your cash flow. Certainly, Charlie, I wonder now that we are in an environment finally where rates have actually fallen, how is the appetite for arms adjustable rate mortgages looked in there?   Caeli Ridge (00:28:44) - We're still on what's called an inverted yield from the 0809 housing and lending kind of debacle, we found ourselves in a place where adjustable rate mortgage or arm's actually priced in interest rate higher than a 30 year fixed, creating that inverted yield.   Caeli Ridge (00:28:58) - We have yet to see the correction of that. So we're still kind of in that place where depending on the characteristics of the transaction, the arm might be a higher interest rate. Maybe it's about the same as the 30 year fixed. If there is a scenario where the arm is lower, it might be an eighth or a quarter of a percentage point. So it's unlikely that we would recommend an arm over a fixed. There'd be have to be some very specific circumstances. If it's only a quarter point improvement to rate for a five year arm versus a 30 year fixed.   Keith Weinhold (00:29:26) - Charlie, you deal with so many investors in there, both newer investors and veteran real estate investors. So when we talk first about the new investors, are there any just sort of common obstacles to overcome that you see in there for people that are looking to get their first investment property?   Caeli Ridge (00:29:45) - I think they're why a lot of times we'll have investors come to us and really not even understand more than they just don't want their money in the stock market anymore, and they want to find another venue or another vehicle in which to create their investment freedom, their financial freedom through.   Caeli Ridge (00:29:59) - So I would say for brand new investors, really start to ask that question, what is your why? What is it that you want to get out of this? Do you want total replacement income of your ordinary income today? Do you love what you do for work and you just want supplemental income? How much does that income need to be? Does it need to be what you're making today? Can it be a little bit less? Does it need to be more based on what you expect your lifestyle to be? So lots of different questions to be asking yourself. So I would say that commonly just really understanding at least a baseline. And then we can start connecting some dots together and planting seeds that I talk about a baseline of, of what it is that you're hoping to accomplish through real estate.   Keith Weinhold (00:30:37) - So that's what you often see with the beginning investor. How about that repeat investor. Their obstacles to overcome that are common in there on expanding one's portfolio. Maybe that's a debt to income ratio threshold that one reaches and you need to strategize with them there.   Caeli Ridge (00:30:54) - Yeah, the debt to income ratio problem ultimately when you get there is probably a good problem to have, right when you're having to have conversations that way. I think that the obstacles to overcome is making sure that you have a good support team, and I think that would start with your lender, someone that has a multitude of loan products that aren't just one size fits all. I would say that we check that box very well, but strategizing. One of my favorite conversations with my clients is having those strategy one on one calls about their debt to income ratio and figuring out from a scheduling perspective, how can we maximize their deductions, because that's one of the beautiful things about real estate investing, right? Is that schedule E so maximizing over there without it taking you over certain thresholds to continue to qualify, there can be a weighted scale there as well. And those are the conversations that we have with our clients usually earlier in the year. But we're always looking at our client's draft tax returns. That's important.   Caeli Ridge (00:31:47) - Before you ring that bell, get us copies of your draft tax returns so that we can run the math, and we'll even show them how the pluses and minuses work. It's pretty interesting to most people. And then come up with a solution that says, okay, if you want to do this for 2024, here are our recommendations X, Y, or Z. And then they can make the informed decision that fits what their goals are for the year.   Keith Weinhold (00:32:08) - Yeah, these are the scenarios that a mortgage loan company that specializes in income property loans can help you with your future planning. How can you set yourself up considering your personal situation, your tax deductions, how much income do you want to show, and all those sorts of things to give you more runway to add income properties to your portfolio. And you do see so many scenarios in there and so many investors. Sometimes when you're here, I like to ask you to get a temperature of the appraisal market. What percent of appraisals are you seeing coming high on and what percent are coming in low? Approximately.   Caeli Ridge (00:32:43) - We're probably over 50% on the high, but not by any large margin. I'll see 10,015 thousand regularly over what we had expected in the actual value. Pretty commonly, just right on the money, right on the mark. I think it's real market specific, to be sure. I don't see that the short values come in all that much. If it is, generally it's probably because the investor is brand new, didn't unfortunately talk to us in advance. They were doing the BR method and they didn't get the right comps or have the right advice about what that RV might end up being. So they got trapped in a situation where they learned the hard way.   Keith Weinhold (00:33:21) - Interesting. I don't know that I remember that from the past, where more than 50% of appraisals have come in high. That pretends well for future valuations, at least here in the near term. All right, Charlie, well, we talked about your record with mortgage rate predictions here and how good that track record was. Why don't you let us know where you think mortgage rates are going to be by the end of 2024.   Caeli Ridge (00:33:45) - I do think that the rates are going to be higher for longer. Don't fight the fed, remember? Listen to what they have to say. I would preface this by saying that all of the indicators for inflation, except for one of them, have been hot to the side. That does not help us with interest rates. The employment jobs report, you've got the CPI, all these different metrics have come in hot where they're higher than what we would want to see them for that inflationary measure, where the feds have been extremely clear that they want to hit that 2% mark, where that number came from, I don't know. That's another conversation. There's only been one metric that actually worked to the rate environment to get it lowered, which is the PCE, the personal consumption expenditure. For those that aren't familiar with that acronym, I think they're going to be higher for longer. There's been a lot of headlines out there saying that I'm getting to a rate. I promise. I'm just going to to preface this first, that March might be the first reduction in the fed funds rate, which, by the way, remember, is not the same as a long term 30 year fixed mortgage rate.   Caeli Ridge (00:34:42) - There are links to them, but they are different. I don't think that's going to happen. I think that if we're going to see rates come down, the first fed funds rate reduction, probably sometime in June, is where I may put my predictions. And then by the end of the year, the interest rate, I'm going to put at 6.125 for 30 year fixed mortgages and non-owner occupied purchase with 25% down. That's my prediction.   Keith Weinhold (00:35:09) - You are on the record though, and it's so interesting, at least with what the fed does with rates generally. It's like an entire world where good news is bad news, right? If you've got great job growth and great GDP, well, that's bad news because they're probably going to keep rates high since those things tend to keep inflation high. It's like, what if you want the lowest mortgage rate, everyone in the world would be unemployed except you. You know, it's just so funny. I'm glad you said that. Yeah.   Caeli Ridge (00:35:36) - The worse the economy is, the better the rates are.   Keith Weinhold (00:35:38) - Yeah. That's right. You offer so many products in there, mostly to investors, but you have other ones that it's not just for buy and hold type of investors. It's for those that are doing better strategies like you mentioned in other strategies. Well, you tell us about all the loan types that you offer in there.   Caeli Ridge (00:35:54) - Yeah, we do have quite a few. Thank you for asking. So we start with the Fannie Freddie's. We call these the golden tickets. Everybody. Highest leverage, lowest interest rate. A lot of times the newer investors will start by exhausting those. There are ten per qualified individual. If you're a married couple, you can have up to 20, as you and I have talked about in the past, Keith. Beyond that, we've got something called Non-cumulative. QM stands for Qualified Mortgage. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are the definition of what a qualified mortgage is. So everything outside of that box of underwriting is now non QM. And non QM in and of itself is extremely diverse, not just for investors, for anybody, but within that subset of product you've got debt service coverage ratio where there is no personal income documentation.   Caeli Ridge (00:36:33) - It's all about the properties rents divided by the payment. We have bank statement loans in there. We've got asset depletion. So if you've got $1 million in an exchange, a stock exchange account, there's a formula that we can use to utilize that as income. Beyond that, we have short term bridge loans for those that are fixed and flipping or fixed and holding where you need cash for the purchase and the renovation or rehab. So we have second lien helocs. Those are newer to our product line. So I'm pretty excited about those. We touched on that. We have commercial loans for commercial property, commercial loans for residential if it were applicable. And then of course the all in one, which is a first lien Helocs still my favorite, but we've spent lots of time talking about that. So that's probably a good overview or at least abbreviated checklist of products we have.   Keith Weinhold (00:37:16) - And I've got investor loans in there myself or new purchases I've done investor loans in there myself or Refinancings. I mean, you're who I go to for my own loans and you're in nearly all 50 states, right? And these are the states where the property is not where the investor resides.   Caeli Ridge (00:37:34) - Yes, sir. Exactly right. We are in 48 states. We are not in New York or North Dakota. Otherwise we're going to be funding everywhere that they're looking to purchase, refi, sell, etc..   Keith Weinhold (00:37:45) - We'll let our audience know where they can learn more, because I know you offer a lot of good free tools, like something we didn't get a chance to talk about a first lien helocs all in one loan. Like for example, you have a simulator there when an investor can just go ahead and run through that. So we're one find all of those resources.   Caeli Ridge (00:38:03) - So check out our website. There's a lot of good information on there. Lots of video content free education. The simulator link will be on there. If you wanted to check out the comparison between what you have now, your 3% interest rate, or your 2.5% interest rate compared to this all in one. I'll tell you guys that I've run that scenario all the time, and people are very surprised when they see that this adjustable rate first line is beating the pants off of a 2.25% rate.   Caeli Ridge (00:38:26) - So check that out. Our community is in the website we meet every other Tuesday. It's called live with Charlie. That's Ridge Lending group. Com. Email us info at Ridge Lending Group. Com and then you can call us of course toll free at (855) 747-4343. The easy way to remember is 85574 Ridge.   Keith Weinhold (00:38:45) - Charlie Ridge. Informative as always. And brazen. With the mortgage rate predictions. You can learn more about how they can help you at Ridge Lending group.com. It's been great having you back on the show Charlie.   Caeli Ridge (00:38:58) - Thank you Keith.   Keith Weinhold (00:39:06) - Oh, yeah, there's such experienced pros in there. And as you can see, they offer nearly every loan type. In fact, there were so many that I almost asked her, do you even loan lunch money to elementary school kids? Uh, because, uh, because they've seemingly got a loan type for most every real estate investment scenario that there is primary residence loans as well. Helpful people over there at Ridge. In fact, I even visited their headquarters office and I was hosted by Charlie there one day.   Keith Weinhold (00:39:38) - See what they can do for you in there. They are real strategists in helping you grow your real estate portfolio, going beyond just what a typical retail mortgage company does. It helps people with primary residences. You can join their free community events too, and they've really expanded their educational offerings to a giant degree the past couple of years. Financially free beats debt free, and she helps bring it to life and make it real. So big thanks to Charlie Ridge at Ridge Lending Group. Until next week, I'm your host, Keith Wangled. Don't quit your day dream.   Speaker 5 (00:40:17) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get Rich education LLC exclusively.   Speaker 6 (00:40:45) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com.

On The Market
185: Top Lenders on Mortgage Rate Predictions + Loans You've NEVER Heard Of

On The Market

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 1, 2024 44:02


We know mortgage rates will fall this year, but how long will we have to wait? Will they get down to the fives or stay in the six-percent range? And even if the Fed lowers the federal funds rate, will this significantly impact mortgage rates? We brought on three elite lenders to get their takes on when rates will drop, how low they could go, and why waiting for lower rates is a riskier decision than you think. Caeli Ridge joins us again as our go-to investor-lender combo, and Krystle and Kenny Simpson, San Diego-based lenders, are on the show to give their viewpoints from the small investor and large commercial lens. Plus, these lenders are about to share the info on some investor loans that you may have NEVER known about—loans that other investors are taking advantage of TODAY to get deals done, even with high interest rates. Speaking of high interest rates, our lenders show mathematical proof that rates are NOT the defining factor of your real estate deal and how waiting for a half-percentage drop could cost you more than you think. Plus, the commercial real estate “bloodbath” coming for one certain sector unless local governments step in.  In This Episode We Cover: The investor loans that you've NEVER heard of that are being used TODAY to get deals done Mortgage rate predictions and how low rates could go by the end of 2024  The commercial real estate drop-off and why buying/selling has come to a halt  High-rate investor HELOCs you can get today that'll cost you LESS than a thirty-year mortgage  Huge opportunity in commercial real estate as one sector becomes a “bloodbath” DSCR, non-QM, and other investor-only loans you can take advantage of NOW And So Much More! Links from the Show Find an Agent Find a Lender BiggerPockets Forums BiggerPockets Agent BiggerPockets Bootcamps Join BiggerPockets for FREE On The Market Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Connect with Other Investors in the “On The Market” Forums Subscribe to The “On The Market” YouTube Channel Dave's BiggerPockets Profile Dave's Instagram Hear Our Last Interview with Caeli Fannie Mae's Mortgage Rate “Range” to Expect in 2024 and 2025 Connect with Caeli: Caeli's BiggerPockets Profile Caeli's Instagram Caeli's LinkedIn Caeli's Website Connect with Krystle and Kenny: Kenny BiggerPockets Profile Krystle's Instagram Kenny's Instagram Krystle's LinkedIn Kenny's LinkedIn Kenny's Twitter Website Click here to listen to the full episode: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-185 Interested in learning more about today's sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast
869: Why NOW is The Time to Buy a House (BEFORE Rates Go Down) w/Avery Carl and Caeli Ridge

BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 8, 2024 47:09


If you've been thinking about buying a house in 2024, you already may be too late. With mortgage rates dropping, listings increasing, and spring buying season only a short couple of months away, NOW is the time to act before bidding wars start up again. With so much pent-up buyer demand, agents and lenders are already seeing a spike in activity, and we haven't even gotten to spring. So, if you want to know how to buy a house in 2024, even with fierce competition, we're here to help. Avery Carl, short-term rental expert and agent, and Caeli Ridge, President at Ridge Lending Group, join us to talk about what they're seeing in the market NOW, what their housing market predictions are as buying season heats back up, and whether or not now is even the time to buy. Both Avery and Caeli work heavily with investors, so they know what does and doesn't work when buying a rental property, NOT just a primary residence. We'll touch on the hottest markets that could see the most competition, why rookie investors need to snap out of analysis paralysis to win in 2024, and why this buying season could become red-hot in just a few months. Plus, David and Rob will answer a listener's question about how to win in a competitive market without having the highest bid. In This Episode We Cover: “Buying season” and why spring 2024 could bring back the hot housing market  Most active real estate markets that are seeing inventory fly off the MLS Why mortgage rates are NOT as important as you think they are The “great stalemate” and what could cause homeowners to finally list their houses Whether to buy or wait and the risk of holding out for lower mortgage rates How to beat other buyers when bidding for investment properties And So Much More! Links from the Show Find an Agent Find a Lender BiggerPockets Youtube Channel BiggerPockets Forums BiggerPockets Pro Membership BiggerPockets Bookstore BiggerPockets Bootcamps BiggerPockets Podcast BiggerPockets Merch Listen to All Your Favorite BiggerPockets Podcasts in One Place Learn About Real Estate, The Housing Market, and Money Management with The BiggerPockets Podcasts Get More Deals Done with The BiggerPockets Investing Tools Find a BiggerPockets Real Estate Meetup in Your Area Expand Your Investing Knowledge With the BiggerPockets Books Be a Guest on the BiggerPockets Podcast Ask David Your Question David's BiggerPockets Profile David's Instagram Rob's BiggerPockets Profile Rob's Instagram Rob's TikTok Rob's Twitter Rob's YouTube Ask David Your Seeing Greene Question 5 Steps to Get ANY Home Offer Accepted (WITHOUT Being the Highest Bidder) Why Investors Are Giving Up Their “Golden 4% Interest Rates” w/Caeli Ridge Federal Housing Finance Agency Connect with Avery and Caeli: Avery's BiggerPockets Profile Avery's Facebook Avery's Instagram Avery's LinkedIn Avery's Website Caeli's BiggerPockets Profile Caeli's Instagram Caeli's LinkedIn Caeli's Website Click here to listen to the full episode: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/real-estate-869 Interested in learning more about today's sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email advertise@biggerpockets.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Rental Income Podcast With Dan Lane
Bonus: How To Have Your Rentals Buy You More Rentals

Rental Income Podcast With Dan Lane

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 16, 2023 18:22


Caeli Ridge from Ridge Lending Group shares that a lot of rental property investors get started by harvesting the equity they have in their primary residence.As they are growing their rental portfolio, a lot of them tap into the equity they have created in their rental propertiesOn this bonus episode, Caeli shares the pros and cons of the different ways investors are harvesting equity.https://rentalincomepodcast.com/Bonus-Equity-Caeli-Ridge

rentals caeli caeli ridge ridge lending group